WorldWideScience

Sample records for models cover broad

  1. The Nature of Partial Covering in Broad Absorption Line Quasars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leighly, Karen

    2012-10-01

    Ejected gas is seen as broad absorption lines in 20% of quasars. It has been known for 15 years that prominent lines such as CIV are usually saturated but not black because the absorbing gas only partially covers the continuum emission region. Therefore, column densities estimated from these lines are only lower limits. Accurate column densities can be obtained from rare ions that have two or more transitions from the same lower level, so that the optical depth and covering fraction can be solved for simultanously. Suitable lines are hard to find, so such measurements are rare. We have found that metastable helium is particularly useful for these measurements. Yet despite these advances, partial covering remains a just a parameter and its physical nature is not understood.We propose a unique experiment to constrain the physical nature of partial covering. We will compare the covering fraction measured from PV {a doublet in the far UV} with that measured from metastable HeI {optical and IR}. The ions creating these lines are relatively rare, and they present similar opacity over a wide range of gas parameters. But due to their wide wavelength separation, these lines probe dramatically different regions of the continuum source, the temperature-dependent accretion disk. So we expect different covering fraction behavior for different partial covering scenarios. This experiment is relevant for understanding the geometry and clumpiness of the outflow, and the results may impact our understanding of the global covering fraction, a parameter critical for determining the outflow kinetic luminosity, and thereby estimating feedback efficiency for broad absorption line outflows.

  2. Modelling Demand for Broad Money in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Abbas Valadkhani

    2002-01-01

    The existence of a stable demand for money is very important for the conduct of monetary policy. It is argued that previous work on the demand for money in Australia has not been very satisfactory in a number of ways. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the demand for broad money employing the Johansen cointegration technique and a short-run dynamic model. Using quarterly data for the period 1976:3-2002:2, this paper finds, inter alia, that the demand for broad money i...

  3. Photoionisation modelling of the broad line region

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Anthea

    2016-08-01

    Two of the most fundamental questions regarding the broad line region (BLR) are "what is its structure?" and "how is it moving?" Baldwin et al. (1995) showed that by summing over an ensemble of clouds at differing densities and distances from the ionising source we can easily and naturally produce a spectrum similar to what is observed for AGN. This approach is called the `locally optimally emitting clouds' (LOC) model. This approach can also explain the well-observed stratification of emission lines in the BLR (e.g. Clavel et al. 1991, Peterson et al. 1991, Kollatschny et al. 2001) and `breathing' of BLR with changes in the continuum luminosity (Netzer & Mor 1990, Peterson et al. 2014) and is therefore a generally accepted model of the BLR. However, LOC predictions require some assumptions to be made about the distribution of the clouds within the BLR. By comparing photoionization predictions, for a distribution of cloud properties, with observed spectra we can infer something about the structure of the BLR and distribution of clouds. I use existing reverberation mapping data to constrain the structure of the BLR by observing how individual line strengths and ratios of different lines change in high and low luminosity states. I will present my initial constraints and discuss the challenges associated with the method.

  4. A Simple Disk Wind Model for Broad Absorption Line Quasars

    CERN Document Server

    Higginbottom, N; Long, K S; Sim, S A; Matthews, J H

    2013-01-01

    Approximately 20% of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) exhibit broad, blue-shifted absorption lines in their ultraviolet spectra. Such features provide clear evidence for significant outflows from these systems, most likely in the form of accretion disk winds. These winds may represent the "quasar" mode of feedback that is often invoked in galaxy formation/evolution models, and they are also key to unification scenarios for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and QSOs. To test these ideas, we construct a simple benchmark model of an equatorial, biconical accretion disk wind in a QSO and use a Monte Carlo ionization/radiative transfer code to calculate the ultraviolet spectra as a function of viewing angle. We find that for plausible outflow parameters, sightlines looking directly into the wind cone do produce broad, blue-shifted absorption features in the transitions typically seen in broad absorption line QSOs. However, our benchmark model is intrinsically X-ray weak in order to prevent overionization of the outflow, an...

  5. A simple disc wind model for broad absorption line quasars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginbottom, N.; Knigge, C.; Long, K. S.; Sim, S. A.; Matthews, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Approximately 20 per cent of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) exhibit broad, blue-shifted absorption lines in their ultraviolet spectra. Such features provide clear evidence for significant outflows from these systems, most likely in the form of accretion disc winds. These winds may represent the `quasar' mode of feedback that is often invoked in galaxy formation/evolution models, and they are also key to unification scenarios for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and QSOs. To test these ideas, we construct a simple benchmark model of an equatorial, biconical accretion disc wind in a QSO and use a Monte Carlo ionization/radiative transfer code to calculate the ultraviolet spectra as a function of viewing angle. We find that for plausible outflow parameters, sightlines looking directly into the wind cone do produce broad, blue-shifted absorption features in the transitions typically seen in broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs. However, our benchmark model is intrinsically X-ray weak in order to prevent overionization of the outflow, and the wind does not yet produce collisionally excited line emission at the level observed in non-BAL QSOs. As a first step towards addressing these shortcomings, we discuss the sensitivity of our results to changes in the assumed X-ray luminosity and mass-loss rate, Ṁwind. In the context of our adopted geometry, Ṁwind ˜ Ṁacc is required in order to produce significant BAL features. The kinetic luminosity and momentum carried by such outflows would be sufficient to provide significant feedback.

  6. Development of large Area Covering Height Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, K.

    2014-04-01

    Height information is a basic part of topographic mapping. Only in special areas frequent update of height models is required, usually the update cycle is quite lower as for horizontal map information. Some height models are available free of charge in the internet; for commercial height models a fee has to be paid. Mostly digital surface models (DSM) with the height of the visible surface are given and not the bare ground height, as required for standard mapping. Nevertheless by filtering of DSM, digital terrain models (DTM) with the height of the bare ground can be generated with the exception of dense forest areas where no height of the bare ground is available. These height models may be better as the DTM of some survey administrations. In addition several DTM from national survey administrations are classified, so as alternative the commercial or free of charge available information from internet can be used. The widely used SRTM DSM is available also as ACE-2 GDEM corrected by altimeter data for systematic height errors caused by vegetation and orientation errors. But the ACE-2 GDEM did not respect neighbourhood information. With the worldwide covering TanDEM-X height model, distributed starting 2014 by Airbus Defence and Space (former ASTRIUM) as WorldDEM, higher level of details and accuracy is reached as with other large area covering height models. At first the raw-version of WorldDEM will be available, followed by an edited version and finally as WorldDEM-DTM a height model of the bare ground. With 12 m spacing and a relative standard deviation of 1.2 m within an area of 1° x 1° an accuracy and resolution level is reached, satisfying also for larger map scales. For limited areas with the HDEM also a height model with 6 m spacing and a relative vertical accuracy of 0.5 m can be generated on demand. By bathymetric LiDAR and stereo images also the height of the sea floor can be determined if the water has satisfying transparency. Another method of getting

  7. Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Daniel; Hochachka, Wesley M; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Winkler, David W; Shaby, Ben; Munson, M Arthur; Hooker, Giles; Riedewald, Mirek; Sheldon, Daniel; Kelling, Steve

    2010-12-01

    The distributions of animal populations change and evolve through time. Migratory species exploit different habitats at different times of the year. Biotic and abiotic features that determine where a species lives vary due to natural and anthropogenic factors. This spatiotemporal variation needs to be accounted for in any modeling of species' distributions. In this paper we introduce a semiparametric model that provides a flexible framework for analyzing dynamic patterns of species occurrence and abundance from broad-scale survey data. The spatiotemporal exploratory model (STEM) adds essential spatiotemporal structure to existing techniques for developing species distribution models through a simple parametric structure without requiring a detailed understanding of the underlying dynamic processes. STEMs use a multi-scale strategy to differentiate between local and global-scale spatiotemporal structure. A user-specified species distribution model accounts for spatial and temporal patterning at the local level. These local patterns are then allowed to "scale up" via ensemble averaging to larger scales. This makes STEMs especially well suited for exploring distributional dynamics arising from a variety of processes. Using data from eBird, an online citizen science bird-monitoring project, we demonstrate that monthly changes in distribution of a migratory species, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), can be more accurately described with a STEM than a conventional bagged decision tree model in which spatiotemporal structure has not been imposed. We also demonstrate that there is no loss of model predictive power when a STEM is used to describe a spatiotemporal distribution with very little spatiotemporal variation; the distribution of a nonmigratory species, the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

  8. Model Invariance across Genders of the Broad Autism Phenotype Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Neill; Wade, Jordan L.; Meyer, J. Patrick; Hull, Michael; Reeve, Ronald E.

    2015-01-01

    ASD is one of the most heritable neuropsychiatric disorders, though comprehensive genetic liability remains elusive. To facilitate genetic research, researchers employ the concept of the broad autism phenotype (BAP), a milder presentation of traits in undiagnosed relatives. Research suggests that the BAP Questionnaire (BAPQ) demonstrates…

  9. [Applicability analysis of spatially explicit model of leaf litter in evergreen broad-leaved forests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qing-Qing; Liu, He-Ming; Jonard, Mathieu; Wang, Zhang-Hua; Wang, Xi-Hua

    2014-11-01

    The spatially explicit model of leaf litter can help to understand its dispersal process, which is very important to predict the distribution pattern of leaves on the surface of the earth. In this paper, the spatially explicit model of leaf litter was developed for 20 tree species using litter trap data from the mapped forest plot in an evergreen broad-leaved forest in Tiantong, Zhejiang Pro- vince, eastern China. Applicability of the model was analyzed. The model assumed an allometric equation between diameter at breast height (DBH) and leaf litter amount, and the leaf litter declined exponentially with the distance. Model parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. Results showed that the predicted and measured leaf litter amounts were significantly correlated, but the prediction accuracies varied widely for the different tree species, averaging at 49.3% and ranging from 16.0% and 74.0%. Model qualities of tree species significantly correlated with the standard deviations of the leaf litter amount per trap, DBH of the tree species and the average leaf dry mass of tree species. There were several ways to improve the forecast precision of the model, such as installing the litterfall traps according to the distribution of the tree to cover the different classes of the DBH and distance apart from the parent trees, determining the optimal dispersal function of each tree species, and optimizing the existing dispersal function.

  10. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  11. Modeling Heat and Mass Transfer from Fabric-Covered Cylinders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillip Gibson

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Fabric-covered cylinders are convenient analogs forclothing systems. The geometry is well defined andincludes many of the effects that are important ingarments. Fabric-covered cylinder models are usedin conjunction with laboratory measurements ofmaterial properties to calculate heat and mass transferproperties of clothing under specific conditions ofenvironmental wind speed, temperature, and relativehumidity.

  12. Improving distributed hydrologic modeling and global land cover data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, Patrick

    Distributed models of the land surface are essential for global climate models because of the importance of land-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, momentum. They are also used for high resolution hydrologic simulation because of the need to capture non-linear responses to spatially variable inputs. Continued improvements to these models, and the data which they use, is especially important given ongoing changes in climate and land cover. In hydrologic models, important aspects are sometimes neglected due to the need to simplify the models for operational simulation. For example, operational flash flood models do not consider the role of snow and are often lumped (i.e. do not discretize a watershed into multiple units, and so do not fully consider the effect of intense, localized rainstorms). To address this deficiency, an overland flow model is coupled with a subsurface flow model to create a distributed flash flood forecasting system that can simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. The model is intended for operational use, and there are extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorologic data, to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. A second study, which is designed to improve snow simulation in forested environments, demonstrates the importance of explicitly representing a near canopy environment in snow models, instead of only representing open and canopy covered areas (i.e. with % canopy fraction), as is often done. Our modeling, which uses canopy structure information from Aerial Laser Survey Mapping at 1 meter resolution, suggests that areas near trees have more net snow water input than surrounding areas because of the lack of snow interception, shading by the trees, and the effects of wind. In addition, the greatest discrepancy between our model simulations that explicitly represent forest structure and those that do not occur in areas with more canopy edges. In addition, two value

  13. A Broad Dynamical Model for Pattern Formation by Lateral Inhibition

    CERN Document Server

    Arcak, Murat

    2012-01-01

    Many patterning events in multi-cellular organisms rely on cell-to-cell contact signaling, such as the Notch pathway in metazoans. A particularly interesting phenomenon in this form of communication is lateral inhibition where a cell that adopts a particular fate inhibits its immediate neighbors from doing the same. Dynamical models are of great interest for understanding the circuit topologies involved in lateral inhibition and for predicting the associated patterns. Several simplified models have been employed for Notch signalling pathways in the literature. The objective of this paper is to present an abstract dynamical model that captures the essential features of lateral inhibition and to demonstrate with dynamical systems techniques that these features indeed lead to patterning.

  14. Stochastic models of cover class dynamics. [remote sensing of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.

    1981-01-01

    Investigations related to satellite remote sensing of vegetation have been concerned with questions of signature identification and extension, cover inventory accuracy, and change detection and monitoring. Attention is given to models of ecological succession, present directions in successional modeling and analysis, nondynamic spatial models, issues in the analysis of spatial data, and aspects of spatial modeling. Issues in time-series analysis are considered along with dynamic spatial models, and problems of model specification and identification.

  15. Radon diffusion through multilayer earthen covers: models and simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayer, D.W.; Oster, C.A.; Nelson, R.W.; Gee, G.W.

    1981-09-01

    A capability to model and analyze the fundamental interactions that influence the diffusion of radon gas through uranium mill tailings and cover systems has been investigated. The purpose of this study is to develop the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion and to develop an understanding of the fundamental interactions that influence radon diffusion. This study develops the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion in one, two and three dimensions. The theory has been incorporated into three computer models that are used to analyze several tailings and cover configurations. This report contains a discussion of the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion, a discussion of the computer models used to analyze uranium mill tailings and multilayered cover systems, and presents the results that have been obtained.

  16. Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.

    2006-01-01

    In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

  17. Modelling land cover change in the Ganga basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Tsarouchi, G.; Mijic, A.; Buytaert, W.

    2013-12-01

    Over recent decades the green revolution in India has driven substantial environmental change. Modelling experiments have identified northern India as a 'hot spot' of land-atmosphere coupling strength during the boreal summer. However, there is a wide range of sensitivity of atmospheric variables to soil moisture between individual climate models. The lack of a comprehensive land cover change dataset to force climate models has been identified as a major contributor to model uncertainty. In this work a time series dataset of land cover change between 1970 and 2010 is constructed for northern India to improve the quantification of regional hydrometeorological feedbacks. The MODIS instrument on board the Aqua and Terra satellites provides near-continuous remotely sensed datasets from 2000 to the present day. However, the quality of satellite products before 2000 is poor. To complete the dataset MODIS images are extrapolated back in time using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small regional extent (CLUE-s) modelling framework. Non-spatial estimates of land cover area from national agriculture and forest statistics, available on a state-wise, annual basis, are used as a direct model input. Land cover change is allocated spatially as a function of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers identified using logistic regression. This dataset will provide an essential input to a high resolution, physically based land surface model to generate the lower boundary condition to assess the impact of land cover change on regional climate.

  18. Modeling Microwave Emission from Short Vegetation-Covered Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xie

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the temporal and spatial variability of the emissivity spectra, problems remain in the interpretation and application of satellite passive microwave data over vegetation-covered surfaces. The commonly used microwave land emissivity model, developed by Weng et al. (2001 and implemented into the community radiative transfer model (CRTM, treats vegetation-covered surfaces as a three-layer medium. This simplification comes at the cost of accuracy. In this study, to reduce bias in the modeling of microwave emissions from short vegetation-covered surfaces, two modifications are made. First, vegetation was considered as a multilayered medium including leaves and stems to simulate volumetric absorption and scattering. The results suggest that the calculated brightness temperatures well agree with field experiments under different incidence angles for low soil moisture and sparse crop cover. On the other hand, large errors from the measurements are found for high soil moisture content and dense crop cover. Second, the advanced integral equation model (AIEM was also used to improve the simulation of reflectivity from rough soil surfaces. Comparisons with field experimental data show that the determination coefficient between the calculated and measured brightness temperatures significantly increased and the root-mean-square errors remarkably decreased. The average improvement using the proposed approach is about 80% and 59% in accuracy for the vertical and horizontal polarization, respectively.

  19. Effects of different scale land cover maps in watershed modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Antonio; Araújo, Antonio; Alexandridis, Thomas; Chambel, Pedro

    2013-04-01

    Water management is a rather complex process that usually involves multiple stakeholder, multiple data and sources, and complex mathematical modelling. One of the key data sets to understand a particular water system is the characterization of the land cover. Land cover maps are essential for the estimation of environmental variables (e.g. LAI, ETa) related to water quantity. Also, land cover maps are used for modelling the water quality. For instance, watersheds that have intensive agriculture can have poor water quality due to increase of nutrients loading; forest fires have a significant negative impact over the water quality by increasing the sediment loads; forest fires can increase flood risks. The land cover dynamics can as well severely affect the water quantity and quality in watersheds. In the MyWater project we are conducting a study to supply water quantity and quality information services for five study areas in five different countries (Brazil, Greece, Mozambique, Netherlands, and Portugal). In this project several land cover maps were produced both at regional and local scales, based on the exploitation of medium and high resolution satellite images (MERIS and SPOT 4). These maps were produced through semi-automatic supervised classification procedures, using an LCCS based nomenclature of 15 classes. Validation results pointed to global accuracy values greater than 80% for all maps. In this paper we focus on studying the effect of using different scale land cover maps in the watershed modelling and its impact in results. The work presented is part of the FP7-EU project "Merging hydrological models and Earth observation data for reliable information on water - MyWater".

  20. Modeling debris-covered glaciers: response to steady debris deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Leif S.; Anderson, Robert S.

    2016-05-01

    Debris-covered glaciers are common in rapidly eroding alpine landscapes. When thicker than a few centimeters, surface debris suppresses melt rates. If continuous debris cover is present, ablation rates can be significantly reduced leading to increases in glacier length. In order to quantify feedbacks in the debris-glacier-climate system, we developed a 2-D long-valley numerical glacier model that includes englacial and supraglacial debris advection. We ran 120 simulations on a linear bed profile in which a hypothetical steady state debris-free glacier responds to a step increase of surface debris deposition. Simulated glaciers advance to steady states in which ice accumulation equals ice ablation, and debris input equals debris loss from the glacier terminus. Our model and parameter selections can produce 2-fold increases in glacier length. Debris flux onto the glacier and the relationship between debris thickness and melt rate strongly control glacier length. Debris deposited near the equilibrium-line altitude, where ice discharge is high, results in the greatest glacier extension when other debris-related variables are held constant. Debris deposited near the equilibrium-line altitude re-emerges high in the ablation zone and therefore impacts melt rate over a greater fraction of the glacier surface. Continuous debris cover reduces ice discharge gradients, ice thickness gradients, and velocity gradients relative to initial debris-free glaciers. Debris-forced glacier extension decreases the ratio of accumulation zone to total glacier area (AAR). Our simulations reproduce the "general trends" between debris cover, AARs, and glacier surface velocity patterns from modern debris-covered glaciers. We provide a quantitative, theoretical foundation to interpret the effect of debris cover on the moraine record, and to assess the effects of climate change on debris-covered glaciers.

  1. Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Sayler, Kristi L.; Quenzer, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

  2. User Requirements from the Climate Modelling Community for Next Generation Global Products from Land Cover CCI Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, Lammert; van Groenestijn, Annemarie; Kalogirou, Vasileios; Arino, Olivier; Herold, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Land Cover has been selected as one of 11 Essential Climate Variables which will be elaborated during the first phase of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (2010- 2013). In the first stage of the Land Cover CCI project, an user requirements analysis has been carried out on the basis of which the detailed specifications of a global land cover product can be defined which match the requirements from the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the climate modelling community. As part of the requirements analysis, an user consultation mechanism was set-up to actively involve different climate modelling groups by setting out surveys to different type of users within the climate modelling community and the broad land cover data user community. The evolution of requirements from current models to future new modelling approaches was specifically taken into account. In addition, requirements from the GCOS Implementation Plan 2004 and 2010 and associated strategic earth observation documents for land cover were assessed and a detailed literature review was carried out. The outcome of the user requirements assessment shows that although the range of requirements coming from the climate modelling community is broad, there is a good match among the requirements coming from different user groups and the broader requirements derived from GCOS, CMUG and other relevant international panels. More specific requirements highlight that future land cover datasets should be both stable and have a dynamic component; deal with the consistency in relationships between land cover classes and land surface parameters; should provide flexibility to serve different scales and purposes; and should provide transparency of product quality. As a next step within the Land Cover CCI project, the outcome of this user requirements analysis will be used as input for the product specification of the next generation Global Land Cover datasets.

  3. Modelling runoff from a Himalayan debris-covered glacier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fujita

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Although the processes by which glacial debris-mantles alter the melting of glacier ice have been well studied, the mass balance and runoff patterns of Himalayan debris-covered glaciers and the response of these factors to climate change are not well understood. Many previous studies have addressed mechanisms of ice melt under debris mantles by applying multiplicative parameters derived from field experiments, and other studies have calculated the details of heat conduction through the debris layer. However, those approaches cannot be applied at catchment scales because debris distributions are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. Here, we establish a runoff model for a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in which the spatial distribution of the thermal properties of the debris mantle is estimated from remotely sensed multi-temporal data. We validated the model for the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake–Trambau Glacier basin in the Nepal Himalaya, using hydro-meteorological observations obtained for a 3.5 yr period (1993–1996. We calculated long-term averages of runoff components for the period 1980–2007 using gridded reanalysis datasets. Our calculations suggest that excess meltwater from the debris-covered area contributes significantly to the total runoff, mainly because of its location at lower elevations. Uncertainties in runoff values due to estimations of the thermal properties and albedo of the debris-covered surface were assessed to be approximately 8% of the runoff from the debris-covered area. We evaluated the sensitivities of runoff components to changes in air temperature and precipitation. As expected, warmer air temperatures increase the total runoff by increasing the melting rate; however, increased precipitation slightly reduces the total runoff, as ice melting is suppressed by the increased snow cover and associated high albedo. The response of total runoff to changing precipitation is complex because of the different responses of

  4. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  5. Hydrocarbon- Generating Model of the Area Covered With Volcanic Rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Zhanqian; Zhang Yuwei

    2000-01-01

    The distribution of Oil & gas fields shows their close relationship with the most active tectonic regions. This is not a coincidence but having a scientific reasons. The crustal active regions, refer to the places where the active natural earthquake, volcanic activities, underground water happened, and the areas of the leaking off of natural gas to the surface of the crust. The magma of volcanic activities brings the organic "kitchen range body" hydrocarbon- generating model and inorganic genetic hydrocarbon to the regions covered by volcanic rock. Underground water brings a catalytic hydrocarbongenerating model for organic matter, and the leaking- off of H2 and CO2 contributes a synthetic hydrocarbon - generating model. Volcanic activities bring the assemblage of Source, Reservoir and Seal formed by the sediments and magma the sedimentary basins, and the hydrocarbon - generating system with a "water - volcano" binary structure is formed. All these conditions are favorable and excellent for the formation of oil & gas fields. The distribution of American oil & gas fields have very close relationship with the mines of Fe, Mn, Ct, Mo, W and V, deposits of Zn, Cu, V, Pb, Al and Hg, and the deposits of fluorite, sulfur, potassium salt, phosphate and halite, and the distribution of sulfate- chloride of river water. The reason why few oil & gas fields discovered in the regions covered by volcanic rock in western America maybe because of the view of "inconsistency between petroleum and volcano". Further more, It's very difficult to carry out a geophysical exploration in such kinds of regions.This paper examined a few hydrocarbon-generating models (systems) mentioned above and came up with some fresh ideas on the exploration in the areas covered with volcanic rocks.

  6. Solving Vertex Cover Problem Using DNA Tile Assembly Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihua Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available DNA tile assembly models are a class of mathematically distributed and parallel biocomputing models in DNA tiles. In previous works, tile assembly models have been proved be Turing-universal; that is, the system can do what Turing machine can do. In this paper, we use tile systems to solve computational hard problem. Mathematically, we construct three tile subsystems, which can be combined together to solve vertex cover problem. As a result, each of the proposed tile subsystems consists of Θ(1 types of tiles, and the assembly process is executed in a parallel way (like DNA’s biological function in cells; thus the systems can generate the solution of the problem in linear time with respect to the size of the graph.

  7. Modeling and experimental verification for a broad beam light transport in optical tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janunts, Edgar; Pöschinger, Thomas; Eisa, Fabian; Langenbucher, Achim

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a general theoretical model for computing a broad beam excitation light transport in a 3D diffusion medium. The model is based on the diffusion approximation of the radiative transport equation. An analytical approach for the light propagation is presented by deriving a corresponding Green's function. A finite cylindrical domain with a rectangular cross section was considered as a 3D homogeneous phantom model. The results of the model are compared with corresponding experimental data. The measurements are done on solid and liquid phantoms replicating tissue-like optical properties.

  8. The Kinematics of Quasar Broad Emission Line Regions Using a Disk-Wind Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Suk Yee; Webster, Rachel L.; King, Anthea L.; Bate, Nicholas F.; O'Dowd, Matthew J.; Labrie, Kathleen

    2017-09-01

    The structure and kinematics of the broad line region in quasars are still unknown. One popular model is the disk-wind model that offers a geometric unification of a quasar based on the viewing angle. We construct a simple kinematical disk-wind model with a narrow outflowing wind angle. The model is combined with radiative transfer in the Sobolev, or high velocity, limit. We examine how angle of viewing affects the observed characteristics of the emission line. The line profiles were found to exhibit distinct properties depending on the orientation, wind opening angle, and region of the wind where the emission arises.

  9. Diagnostics for the structure of AGNs’broad line regions with reverberation mapping data:confirmation of the two-component broad line region model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    We re-examine the ten Reverberation Mapping(RM) sources with public data based on the two-component model of the Broad Line Region(BLR).In fitting their broad Hβ Mlines,six of them only need one Gaussian component,one of them has a double-peak profile,one has an irregular profile,and only two of them need two components,i.e.,a Very Broad Gaussian Component(VBGC) and an Inter-Mediate Gaussian Component(IMGC).The Gaussian components are assumed to come from two distinct regions in the two-component model;they are the Very Broad Line Region(VBLR) and the Inter-Mediate Line region(IMLR).The two sources with a two-component profile are Mrk 509 and NGC 4051.The time lags of the two components of both sources satisfy tIMLR/tVBLR=V 2VBLR/V 2IMLR,where tIMLR and tVBLR are the lags of the two components while VIMLR and VVBLR represent the mean gas velocities of the two regions,supporting the two-component model of the BLR of Active Galactic Nuclei(AGNs).The fact that most of these ten sources only have the VBGC confirms the assumption that RM mainly measures the radius of the VBLR;consequently,the radius obtained from the R-L relationship mainly represents the radius of VBLR.Moreover,NGC 4051,with a lag of about 5 days in the one component model,is an outlier on the R-L relationship as shown in Kaspi et al.(2005);however this problem disappears in our two-component model with lags of about 2 and 6 days for the VBGC and IMGC,respectively.

  10. Total cloud cover from satellite observations and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Probst

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Global and zonal monthly means of cloud cover fraction for total cloudiness (CF from the ISCCP D2 dataset are compared to same quantity produced by the 20th century simulations of 21 climate models from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 multi-model dataset archived by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI. The comparison spans the time frame from January 1984 to December 1999 and the global and zonal average of CF are studied. The restriction to total cloudiness depends on the output of some models that does not include the 3D cloud structure. It is shown that the global mean of CF for the PCMDI/CMIP3 models, averaged over the whole period, exhibits a considerable variance and generally underestimates the ISCCP value. Very large discrepancies among models, and between models and observations, are found in the polar areas, where both models and satellite observations are less reliable, and especially near Antarctica. For this reason the zonal analysis is focused over the 60° S–60° N latitudinal belt, which includes the tropical area and mid latitudes. The two hemispheres are analyzed separately to show the variation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. Most models overestimate the yearly averaged values of CF over all of the analysed areas, while differences emerge in their ability to capture the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The models represent, in a qualitatively correct way, the magnitude and the weak sign of the seasonal cycle over the whole geographical domain, but overestimate the strength of the signal in the tropical areas and at mid-latitudes, when taken separately. The interannual variability of the two yearly averages and of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle is greatly underestimated by all models in each area analysed. This work shows that the climate models have an heterogeneous behaviour in simulating the CF over

  11. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2000 - 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  12. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2001

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  13. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2002

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  14. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  15. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  16. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  17. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  18. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  19. Modeled conterminous United States Crop Cover datasets for 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Crop cover maps have become widely used in a range of research applications. Multiple crop cover maps have been developed to suite particular research interests. The...

  20. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  1. Modelling Deforestation and Land Cover Transitions of Tropical Peatlands in Sumatra, Indonesia Using Remote Sensed Land Cover Data Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Elz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In Southeast Asia land use change associated with forest loss and degradation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. This is of particular concern where deforestation occurs on peat soils. A business-as-usual (BAU land change model was developed using Dinamica EGO© for a REDD+ Demonstration Activity area in south-east Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia containing Berbak National Park (NP. The model output will be used as baseline land change predictions for comparison with alternative land cover management scenarios as part of a REDD+ feasibility study. The study area is approximately 376,000 ha with approximately 50% on peat soils. The model uses published 2000 and 2010 land cover maps as input and projects land cover change for thirty years until 2040. The model predicted that under a BAU scenario the forest area, 185,000 ha in 2010, will decline by 37% by 2040. In protected forest areas, approximately 50% of the study area, forest cover will reduce by 25%. Peat swamp forest will reduce by almost 37%. The greatest land cover category increases are plantation/regrowth areas (which includes oil palm and open areas which each increase by 30,000 ha. These results indicate that the site has great potential as an Indonesian REDD+ Demonstration Activity.

  2. Amplifying modeling for broad bandwidth pulse in Nd:glass based on hybrid-broaden mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sujingqin; Lanqin, L; Wenyi, W; Feng, J; Xiaofeng, W; Xiaomin, Z [Research Center of Laser Fusion, China Academy of Engineering Physics, P. O. Box 919-988, Mianyang, China, 621900 (China); Bin, L [School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu. China, 610031 (China)], E-mail: sujingqin@tom.com

    2008-05-15

    In this paper, the cross relaxation time is proposed to combine the homogeneous and inhomogeneous broaden mechanism for broad bandwidth pulse amplification model. The corresponding velocity equation, which can describe the response of inverse population on upper and low energy level of gain media to different frequency of pulse, is also put forward. The gain saturation and energy relaxation effect are also included in the velocity equation. Code named CPAP has been developed to simulate the amplifying process of broad bandwidth pulse in multi-pass laser system. The amplifying capability of multi-pass laser system is evaluated and gain narrowing and temporal shape distortion are also investigated when bandwidth of pulse and cross relaxation time of gain media are different. Results can benefit the design of high-energy PW laser system in LFRC, CAEP.

  3. Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

    2014-01-01

    Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

  4. Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

    2014-01-01

    Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

  5. Spatially nondegenerate four-wave mixing in a broad area semiconductor laser: Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Søren Blaaberg; Tromborg, Bjarne; Petersen, P. M.

    coupled equations for the field components in the cavity and a rate equation is used to describe the carrier density of the semiconductor material. The interference pattern of the four field components inside the cavity induces a periodic spatial modulation of the carrier density and thus of the complex......We present a numerical model of spatially nondegenerate four-wave mixing in a bulk broad area semiconductor laser with an external reflector and a spatial filter. The external reflector provides a feedback with an off-aixs direction of propagation. Such a configuration has experimentally been seen...

  6. Artificial Systems and Models for Risk Covering Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurenţiu Mihai Treapăt

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainly, this paper focuses on the roles of artificial intelligence based systems and especially on risk-covering operations. In this context, the paper comes with theoretical explanations on real-life based examples and applications. From a general perspective, the paper enriches its value with a wide discussion on the related subject. The paper aims to revise the volatilities’ estimation models and the correlations between the various time series and also by presenting the Risk Metrics methodology, as explained is a case study. The advantages that the VaR estimation offers, consist of its ability to quantitatively and numerically express the risk level of a portfolio, at a certain moment in time and also the risk of on open position (in titles, in FX, commodities or granted loans, belonging to an economic agent or even individual; hence, its role in a more efficient capital allocation, in the assumed risk delimitation, and also as a performance measurement instrument. In this paper and the study case that completes our work, we aim to prove how we can prevent considerable losses and even bankruptcies if VaR is known and applied accordingly. For this reason, the universities inRomaniashould include or increase their curricula with the study of the VaR model as an artificial intelligence tool. The simplicity of the presented case study, most probably, is the strongest argument of the current work because it can be understood also by the readers that are not necessarily very experienced in the risk management field.

  7. Forest cover dynamics analysis and prediction modelling using logistic regression model (case study: forest cover at Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau Province)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahib, Irmadi; Suryanta, Jaka

    2017-01-01

    Forest destruction, climate change and global warming could reduce an indirect forest benefit because forest is the largest carbon sink and it plays a very important role in global carbon cycle. To support Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +) program, people pay attention of forest cover changes as the basis for calculating carbon stock changes. This study try to explore the forest cover dynamics as well as the prediction model of forest cover in Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau Province Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some various explanatory variables associated with forest conversion processes and predict forest cover change using logistic regression model (LRM). The main data used in this study is Land use/cover map (1990 – 2011). Performance of developed model was assessed through a comparison of the predicted model of forest cover change and the actual forest cover in 2011. The analysis result showed that forest cover has decreased continuously between 1990 and 2011, up to the loss of 165,284.82 ha (35.19 %) of forest area. The LRM successfully predicted the forest cover for the period 2010 with reasonably high accuracy (ROC = 92.97 % and 70.26 %).

  8. Nanoporous Anodic Alumina 3D FDTD Modelling for a Broad Range of Inter-pore Distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertó-Roselló, Francesc; Xifré-Pérez, Elisabet; Ferré-Borrull, Josep; Pallarès, Josep; Marsal, Lluis F.

    2016-08-01

    The capability of the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method for the numerical modelling of the optical properties of nanoporous anodic alumina (NAA) in a broad range of inter-pore distances is evaluated. FDTD permits taking into account in the same numerical framework all the structural features of NAA, such as the texturization of the interfaces or the incorporation of electrolyte anions in the aluminium oxide host. The evaluation is carried out by comparing reflectance measurements from two samples with two very different inter-pore distances with the simulation results. Results show that considering the texturization is crucial to obtain good agreement with the measurements. On the other hand, including the anionic layer in the model leads to a second-order contribution to the reflectance spectrum.

  9. Recent land cover changes and sensitivity of the model simulations to various land cover datasets for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Ma, Zhuguo; Mahmood, Rezaul; Zhao, Tianbao; Li, Zhenhua; Li, Yanping

    2016-09-01

    Reliable land cover data are important for improving numerical simulation by regional climate model, because the land surface properties directly affect climate simulation by partitioning of energy, water and momentum fluxes and by determining temperature and moisture at the interface between the land surface and atmosphere. China has experienced significant land cover change in recent decades and accurate representation of these changes is, hence, essential. In this study, we used a climate model to examine the changes experienced in the regional climate because of the different land cover data in recent decades. Three sets of experiments are performed using the same settings, except for the land use/cover (LC) data for the years 1990, 2000, 2009, and the model default LC data. Three warm season periods are selected, which represented a wet (1998), normal (2000) and a dry year (2011) for China in each set of experiment. The results show that all three sets of land cover experiments simulate a warm bias relative to the control with default LC data for near-surface temperature in summertime in most parts of China. It is especially noticeable in the southwest China and south of the Yangtze River, where significant changes of LC occurred. Deforestation in southwest China and to the south of Yangtze River in the experiment cases may have contributed to the negative precipitation bias relative to the control cases. Large LC changes in northwestern Tibetan Plateau for 2000 and 2009 datasets are also associated with changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and heat fluxes. Wind anomalies and energy budget changes are consistent with the precipitation and temperature changes.

  10. Recent land cover changes and sensitivity of the model simulations to various land cover datasets for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Ma, Zhuguo; Mahmood, Rezaul; Zhao, Tianbao; Li, Zhenhua; Li, Yanping

    2017-08-01

    Reliable land cover data are important for improving numerical simulation by regional climate model, because the land surface properties directly affect climate simulation by partitioning of energy, water and momentum fluxes and by determining temperature and moisture at the interface between the land surface and atmosphere. China has experienced significant land cover change in recent decades and accurate representation of these changes is, hence, essential. In this study, we used a climate model to examine the changes experienced in the regional climate because of the different land cover data in recent decades. Three sets of experiments are performed using the same settings, except for the land use/cover (LC) data for the years 1990, 2000, 2009, and the model default LC data. Three warm season periods are selected, which represented a wet (1998), normal (2000) and a dry year (2011) for China in each set of experiment. The results show that all three sets of land cover experiments simulate a warm bias relative to the control with default LC data for near-surface temperature in summertime in most parts of China. It is especially noticeable in the southwest China and south of the Yangtze River, where significant changes of LC occurred. Deforestation in southwest China and to the south of Yangtze River in the experiment cases may have contributed to the negative precipitation bias relative to the control cases. Large LC changes in northwestern Tibetan Plateau for 2000 and 2009 datasets are also associated with changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and heat fluxes. Wind anomalies and energy budget changes are consistent with the precipitation and temperature changes.

  11. Application of a process-based shallow landslide hazard model over a broad area in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gioia, Eleonora; Speranza, Gabriella; Ferretti, Maurizio; Godt, Jonathan W.; Baum, Rex L.; Marincioni, Fausto

    2015-01-01

    Process-based models are widely used for rainfall-induced shallow landslide forecasting. Previous studies have successfully applied the U.S. Geological Survey’s Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al. 2002) to compute infiltration-driven changes in the hillslopes’ factor of safety on small scales (i.e., tens of square kilometers). Soil data input for such models are difficult to obtain across larger regions. This work describes a novel methodology for the application of TRIGRS over broad areas with relatively uniform hydrogeological properties. The study area is a 550-km2 region in Central Italy covered by post-orogenic Quaternary sediments. Due to the lack of field data, we assigned mechanical and hydrological property values through a statistical analysis based on literature review of soils matching the local lithologies. We calibrated the model using rainfall data from 25 historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. We compared the variation of pressure head and factor of safety with the landslide occurrence to identify the best fitting input conditions. Using calibrated inputs and a soil depth model, we ran TRIGRS for the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, comparing the model’s output with a shallow landslide inventory, shows that TRIGRS effectively simulated the instability conditions in the post-orogenic complex during historical rainfall scenarios. The implication of this work is that rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted by a deterministic model, even where data on geotechnical and hydraulic properties as well as temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not available.

  12. The diverse broad-band light-curves of Swift GRBs reproduced with the cannonball model

    CERN Document Server

    Dado, Shlomo; De Rújula, A

    2009-01-01

    Two radiation mechanisms, inverse Compton scattering (ICS) and synchrotron radiation (SR), suffice within the cannonball (CB) model of long gamma ray bursts (LGRBs) and X-ray flashes (XRFs) to provide a very simple and accurate description of their observed prompt emission and afterglows. Simple as they are, the two mechanisms and the burst environment generate the rich structure of the light curves at all frequencies and times. This is demonstrated for 33 selected Swift LGRBs and XRFs, which are well sampled from early time until late time and well represent the entire diversity of the broad band light curves of Swift LGRBs and XRFs. Their prompt gamma-ray and X-ray emission is dominated by ICS of glory light. During their fast decline phase, ICS is taken over by SR which dominates their broad band afterglow. The pulse shape and spectral evolution of the gamma-ray peaks and the early-time X-ray flares, and even the delayed optical `humps' in XRFs, are correctly predicted. The canonical and non-canonical X-ra...

  13. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  14. Modeling interactions between land cover and climate in integrated assessment models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) link representations of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate in an internally consistent framework. These models are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate, energy, and other policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. Additionally, these models are used to develop future scenarios of emissions and land cover for use in climate models (e.g., RCPs and CMIP5). Land use is strongly influenced by assumptions about population, income, diet, ecosystem productivity change, and climate policy. Population, income, and diet determine the amount of food production needed in the future. Assumptions about future changes in crop yields due to agronomic developments influence the amount of land needed to produce food crops. Climate policy has implications for land when land-based mitigation options (e.g., afforestation and bioenergy) are considered. IAM models consider each of these factors in their computation of land use in the future. As each of these factors is uncertain in the future, IAM models use scenario analysis to explore the implications of each. For example, IAMs have been used to explore the effect of different mitigation policies on land cover. These models can quantify the trade-offs in terms of land cover, energy prices, food prices, and mitigation costs of each of these policies. Furthermore, IAMs are beginning to explore the effect of climate change on land productivity, and the implications that changes in productivity have on mitigation efforts. In this talk, we describe the implications for future land use and land cover of a variety of socioeconomic, technological, and policy drivers in several IAM models. Additionally, we will discuss the effects of future land cover on climate and the effects of climate on future land cover, as simulated

  15. A review on soil cover in Waste and contaminant containment: design, monitoring, and modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sheng PENG; Huilian JIANG

    2009-01-01

    Soil cover is a widely-used but relatively new method for solid waste containment. Standard while site-specific procedures for cover design, monitoring, and evluation are needed to insure reliable cover performance. This paper presents a review of soil cover types, design principles and procedures, cover monitoring, and long-term performance modeling. Cover types and cover design are introduced with the general concepts and discussed on their specific applicabilities in different circumstances. Detailed discussion is given on unsaturated flow system properties and their field measurements, including meth-ods, apparatuses/equipments and their advantages and disadvantages. Several unsaturated flow simulators are discussed and compared with regards to their simulation capacities for critical parameters closely related to soil cover performance such as runoff, infiltration and evaporation. Finally, research subjects are suggested for future work for better soil cover monitoring and modeling.

  16. A fitted neoprene garment to cover dressings in swine models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mino, Matthew J; Mauskar, Neil A; Matt, Sara E; Pavlovich, Anna R; Prindeze, Nicholas J; Moffatt, Lauren T; Shupp, Jeffrey W

    2012-12-17

    Domesticated porcine species are commonly used in studies of wound healing, owing to similarities between porcine skin and human skin. Such studies often involve wound dressings, and keeping these dressings intact on the animal can be a challenge. The authors describe a novel and simple technique for constructing a fitted neoprene garment for pigs that covers dressings and maintains their integrity during experiments.

  17. Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlands, Daniel J.; Frame, David J.; Ackerley, Duncan; Aina, Tolu; Booth, Ben B. B.; Christensen, Carl; Collins, Matthew; Faull, Nicholas; Forest, Chris E.; Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Ingram, William J.; Knight, Sylvia; Lopez, Ana; Massey, Neil; McNamara, Frances; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Piani, Claudio; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Smith, Leonard A.; Stone, Dáithí A.; Thurston, Milo; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Hiro Yamazaki, Y.; Allen, Myles R.

    2012-04-01

    Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system--equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing--and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches, large ensembles of simplified climate models, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4-3K by 2050, relative to 1961-1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensembles-of-opportunity typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range `no mitigation' scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

  18. Endovascular Broad-Neck Aneurysm Creation in a Porcine Model Using a Vascular Plug

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muehlenbruch, Georg, E-mail: gmuehlenbruch@ukaachen.de; Nikoubashman, Omid; Steffen, Bjoern; Dadak, Mete [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, University Hospital (Germany); Palmowski, Moritz [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, University Hospital (Germany); Wiesmann, Martin [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, University Hospital (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    Ruptured cerebral arterial aneurysms require prompt treatment by either surgical clipping or endovascular coiling. Training for these sophisticated endovascular procedures is essential and ideally performed in animals before their use in humans. Simulators and established animal models have shown drawbacks with respect to degree of reality, size of the animal model and aneurysm, or time and effort needed for aneurysm creation. We therefore aimed to establish a realistic and readily available aneurysm model. Five anticoagulated domestic pigs underwent endovascular intervention through right femoral access. A total of 12 broad-neck aneurysms were created in the carotid, subclavian, and renal arteries using the Amplatzer vascular plug. With dedicated vessel selection, cubic, tubular, and side-branch aneurysms could be created. Three of the 12 implanted occluders, two of them implanted over a side branch of the main vessel, did not induce complete vessel occlusion. However, all aneurysms remained free of intraluminal thrombus formation and were available for embolization training during a surveillance period of 6 h. Two aneurysms underwent successful exemplary treatment: one was stent-assisted, and one was performed with conventional endovascular coil embolization. The new porcine aneurysm model proved to be a straightforward approach that offers a wide range of training and scientific applications that might help further improve endovascular coil embolization therapy in patients with cerebral aneurysms.

  19. Modeling the spectral-energy-distribution of 3C 454.3 in a "flat" broad-line-region scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Maichang

    2014-01-01

    The broad-line region (BLR) of flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) could have a "flat" geometrical structure to allow GeV gamma-ray photons escape, to produce the observed gamma-ray flares with short timescales. In this paper, we collect the quasi-simultaneous spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of the FSRQ 3C 454.3 obtained by the multi-wavelength campaigns spanning from 2007 July to 2011 January, and use a model with the "flat" structure BLR, the accretion disc and the dust torus to explain the SEDs of gamma-ray outbursts. We obtain the following results: (i) The jet is almost in equipartition between magnetic and particle energy densities during the outbursts; (ii) When the emitting region locates inside the cavity of the BLR, the covering factor $f_{\\rm BLR}$ of the BLR is very small; as the emitting region goes into the BLR structure, $f_{\\rm BLR}$ increases. (iii) The aperture angle $\\alpha$ describing the BLR structure is about $45^{\\circ}$; (iv) The central black hole (BH) mass is about $5\\times 10^{...

  20. Urban land cover thematic disaggregation, employing datasets from multiple sources and RandomForests modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gounaridis, Dimitrios; Koukoulas, Sotirios

    2016-09-01

    Urban land cover mapping has lately attracted a vast amount of attention as it closely relates to a broad scope of scientific and management applications. Late methodological and technological advancements facilitate the development of datasets with improved accuracy. However, thematic resolution of urban land cover has received much less attention so far, a fact that hampers the produced datasets utility. This paper seeks to provide insights towards the improvement of thematic resolution of urban land cover classification. We integrate existing, readily available and with acceptable accuracies datasets from multiple sources, with remote sensing techniques. The study site is Greece and the urban land cover is classified nationwide into five classes, using the RandomForests algorithm. Results allowed us to quantify, for the first time with a good accuracy, the proportion that is occupied by each different urban land cover class. The total area covered by urban land cover is 2280 km2 (1.76% of total terrestrial area), the dominant class is discontinuous dense urban fabric (50.71% of urban land cover) and the least occurring class is discontinuous very low density urban fabric (2.06% of urban land cover).

  1. Computational modelling of final covers for uranium mill tailings impoundments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leoni, Guilherme Luís Menegassi; Almeida, Márcio de Souza Soares; Fernandes, Horst Monken

    2004-07-05

    To properly design a final cover for uranium mill tailings impoundments the designer must attempt to find an effective geotechnical solution which addresses the radiological and non-radiological potential impact and prevents geochemical processes from occurring within the tailings. This paper presents a computer-based method for evaluating the performance of engineered final covers for the remediation of uranium mill tailings impoundments. Three hypothetical final covers were taken from scientific literature to investigate the proposed method: (i) a compacted clay liner (CCL); (ii) a composite liner (CL) and (iii) a capillary barrier (CB). The processes investigated: (i) the saturated hydraulic flux; (ii) the unsaturated hydraulic flux (exclusively for the capillary barrier) and (iii) the radon exhalation to the atmosphere. The computer programs utilised for the analyses are: (i) Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP); (ii) SEEP/W and (iii) RADON. The site considered for the development of the research presented herein was the uranium mill tailings impoundment located at the Brazilian city of Poços de Caldas, in the Minas Gerais State.

  2. Reverberation Modeling of the Broad Emission Line Region in NGC 5548

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottorff, M. C.; Korista, K. T.; Shlosman, I.; Blandford, R. D.

    Long-term observations of broad-line region (BLR) in the Seyfert~1 galaxy NGC~5548 are analyzed and a critical comparison with the predictions of a hydromagnetically-driven outflow model of Emmering, Blandford and Shlosman is provided. This model is used to generate a time series of C~IV line profiles that have responded to a time varying continuum. We include cloud emission anisotropy, cloud obscuration, a CLOUDY-generated emissivity function and a narrow-line component which is added to the BLR component to generate the total line profiles. The model is driven with continuum input based on the monitoring campaigns of NGC~5548 reported in Clavel et al. and Korista et al., and the line strengths, profiles and lags are compared with the observations. The model is able to reproduce the basic features of CIV line variability in this active galactic nucleus, i.e., time evolution of the profile shape and strength of the C~IV emission line without varying the model parameters. The best fit model provides the effective size, the dominant geometry, the emissivity distribution and the 3D velocity field of the C~IV BLR and constrains the mass of the central black hole to about $3\\times 10^7\\ M_{\\odot}$. The inner part of the wind in NGC~5548 appears to be responsible for the anisotropically emitted CIV line, while its outer part remains dusty and molecular, thus having similar spectral characteristics to a molecular torus, although its dynamics is fundamentally different. The model predicts a differential response across the C~IV line profile, producing a red-side-first response in the relative velocity interval of $3,000-6,000 {\\rm km\\ s^{-1}}$ followed by the blue mid-wing and finally by the line core. Given that no adequate method in computing the errors for data lags and centroids exists in the literature, the {\\it data} cross-correlation function provides results which appear inconclusive, making any direct comparison with the model premature. Overall analysis

  3. ISO observations and models of galaxies with Hidden Broad Line Regions

    CERN Document Server

    Efstathiou, A

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we present ISO mid-infrared spectrophotometry and far-infrared photometry of galaxies with Hidden Broad Line Regions (HBLR). We also present radiative transfer models of their spectral energy distributions which enable us to separate the contributions from the dusty disc of the AGN and the dusty starbursts. We find that the combination of tapered discs (discs whose thickness increases with distance from the central source in the inner part but stays constant in the outer part) and starbursts provide good fits to the data. The tapered discs dominate in the mid-infrared part of the spectrum and the starbursts in the far-infrared. After correcting the AGN luminosity for anisotropic emission we find that the ratio of the AGN luminosity to the starburst luminosity, L(AGN)/L(SB), ranges from about unity for IRAS14454-4343 to about 13 for IRAS01475-0740. Our results suggest that the warm IRAS colours of HBLR are due to the relatively high L(AGN)/L(SB). Our fits are consistent with the unified model and...

  4. Modeling Historical Land Cover and Land Use: A Review fromContemporary Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Spatially-explicit land cover land use change (LCLUC models are becoming increasingly useful tools for historians and archaeologists. Such kinds of models have been developed and used by geographers, ecologists and land managers over the last few decades to carry out prospective scenarios. In this paper, we review historical models to compare them with prospective models, with the assumption that the ample experience gained in the development of models of prospective simulation can benefit the development of models having as their objective the simulation of changes that happened in the past. The review is divided into three sections: in the first section, we explain the functioning of contemporary LCLUC models; in the second section, we analyze historical LCLUC models; in the third section, we compare the former two types of models, and finally, we discuss the contributions to historical LCLUC models of contemporary LCLUC models.

  5. [Quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor in USLE and RUSLE models by using remote sensing data: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chang-Guang; Li, Sheng; Ren, Hua-Dong; Yao, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Zi-Jie

    2012-06-01

    Soil loss prediction models such as universal soil loss equation (USLE) and its revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) are the useful tools for risk assessment of soil erosion and planning of soil conservation at regional scale. To make a rational estimation of vegetation cover and management factor, the most important parameters in USLE or RUSLE, is particularly important for the accurate prediction of soil erosion. The traditional estimation based on field survey and measurement is time-consuming, laborious, and costly, and cannot rapidly extract the vegetation cover and management factor at macro-scale. In recent years, the development of remote sensing technology has provided both data and methods for the estimation of vegetation cover and management factor over broad geographic areas. This paper summarized the research findings on the quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor by using remote sensing data, and analyzed the advantages and the disadvantages of various methods, aimed to provide reference for the further research and quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor at large scale.

  6. Modeling vegetation heights from high resolution stereo aerial photography: an application for broad-scale rangeland monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillan, Jeffrey K; Karl, Jason W; Duniway, Michael; Elaksher, Ahmed

    2014-11-01

    Vertical vegetation structure in rangeland ecosystems can be a valuable indicator for assessing rangeland health and monitoring riparian areas, post-fire recovery, available forage for livestock, and wildlife habitat. Federal land management agencies are directed to monitor and manage rangelands at landscapes scales, but traditional field methods for measuring vegetation heights are often too costly and time consuming to apply at these broad scales. Most emerging remote sensing techniques capable of measuring surface and vegetation height (e.g., LiDAR or synthetic aperture radar) are often too expensive, and require specialized sensors. An alternative remote sensing approach that is potentially more practical for managers is to measure vegetation heights from digital stereo aerial photographs. As aerial photography is already commonly used for rangeland monitoring, acquiring it in stereo enables three-dimensional modeling and estimation of vegetation height. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility and accuracy of estimating shrub heights from high-resolution (HR, 3-cm ground sampling distance) digital stereo-pair aerial images. Overlapping HR imagery was taken in March 2009 near Lake Mead, Nevada and 5-cm resolution digital surface models (DSMs) were created by photogrammetric methods (aerial triangulation, digital image matching) for twenty-six test plots. We compared the heights of individual shrubs and plot averages derived from the DSMs to field measurements. We found strong positive correlations between field and image measurements for several metrics. Individual shrub heights tended to be underestimated in the imagery, however, accuracy was higher for dense, compact shrubs compared with shrubs with thin branches. Plot averages of shrub height from DSMs were also strongly correlated to field measurements but consistently underestimated. Grasses and forbs were generally too small to be detected with the resolution of the DSMs. Estimates of

  7. Modeling vegetation heights from high resolution stereo aerial photography: an application for broad-scale rangeland monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillan, Jeffrey K.; Karl, Jason W.; Duniway, Michael; Elaksher, Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Vertical vegetation structure in rangeland ecosystems can be a valuable indicator for assessing rangeland health and monitoring riparian areas, post-fire recovery, available forage for livestock, and wildlife habitat. Federal land management agencies are directed to monitor and manage rangelands at landscapes scales, but traditional field methods for measuring vegetation heights are often too costly and time consuming to apply at these broad scales. Most emerging remote sensing techniques capable of measuring surface and vegetation height (e.g., LiDAR or synthetic aperture radar) are often too expensive, and require specialized sensors. An alternative remote sensing approach that is potentially more practical for managers is to measure vegetation heights from digital stereo aerial photographs. As aerial photography is already commonly used for rangeland monitoring, acquiring it in stereo enables three-dimensional modeling and estimation of vegetation height. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility and accuracy of estimating shrub heights from high-resolution (HR, 3-cm ground sampling distance) digital stereo-pair aerial images. Overlapping HR imagery was taken in March 2009 near Lake Mead, Nevada and 5-cm resolution digital surface models (DSMs) were created by photogrammetric methods (aerial triangulation, digital image matching) for twenty-six test plots. We compared the heights of individual shrubs and plot averages derived from the DSMs to field measurements. We found strong positive correlations between field and image measurements for several metrics. Individual shrub heights tended to be underestimated in the imagery, however, accuracy was higher for dense, compact shrubs compared with shrubs with thin branches. Plot averages of shrub height from DSMs were also strongly correlated to field measurements but consistently underestimated. Grasses and forbs were generally too small to be detected with the resolution of the DSMs. Estimates of

  8. Ultra-broad-band electrical spectroscopy of soils and sediments—a combined permittivity and conductivity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewer, M.; Günther, T.; Igel, J.; Kruschwitz, S.; Martin, T.; Wagner, N.

    2017-09-01

    We combined two completely different methods measuring the frequency-dependent electrical properties of moist porous materials in order to receive an extraordinary large frequency spectrum. In the low-frequency (LF) range, complex electrical resistivity between 1 mHz and 45 kHz was measured for three different soils and sandstone, using the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method with a four electrode cell. In the high-frequency (HF) radio to microwave range, complex dielectric permittivity was measured between 1 MHz and 10 GHz for the same samples using dielectric spectroscopy by means of the coaxial transmission line technique. The combined data sets cover 13 orders of magnitude and were transferred into their equivalent expressions: the complex effective dielectric permittivity and the complex effective electrical conductivity. We applied the Kramers-Kronig relation in order to justify the validity of the data combination. A new phenomenological model that consists of both dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity terms in a Debye- and Cole-Cole-type manner was fitted to the spectra. The combined permittivity and conductivity model accounts for the most common representations of the physical quantities with respect to the individual measuring method. A maximum number of four relaxation processes was identified in the analysed frequency range. Among these are the free water and different interfacial relaxation processes, the Maxwell-Wagner effect, the counterion relaxation in the electrical double layer and the direct-current electrical conductivity. There is evidence that free water relaxation does not affect the electrical response in the SIP range. Moreover, direct current conductivity contribution (bulk and interface) dominates the losses in the HF range. Interfacial relaxation processes with relaxations in the HF range are broadly distributed down to the LF range. The slowest observed process in the LF range has a minor contribution to the HF

  9. Broad-band colours and overall photometric properties of template galaxy models from stellar population synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzoni, Alberto

    2005-08-01

    the observation (and the interpretation) of high-redshift surveys. In addition to broad-band colours, the modelling of Balmer line emission in disc-dominated systems shows that striking emission lines, like Hα, can very effectively track stellar birth rate in a galaxy. For these features to be useful age tracers as well, however, one should first assess the real change of b versus time on the basis of supplementary (and physically independent) arguments.

  10. Choosing appropriate subpopulations for modeling tree canopy cover nationwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gretchen G. Moisen; John W. Coulston; Barry T. Wilson; Warren B. Cohen; Mark V. Finco

    2012-01-01

    In prior national mapping efforts, the country has been divided into numerous ecologically similar mapping zones, and individual models have been constructed for each zone. Additionally, a hierarchical approach has been taken within zones to first mask out areas of nonforest, then target models of tree attributes within forested areas only. This results in many models...

  11. Why Friedman's Non-monotonic Reasoning Defies Hempel's Covering Law Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); Y-H. Tan

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we will show that Hempel's covering law model can't deal very well with explanations that are based on incomplete knowledge. In particular the symmetry thesis, which is an important aspect of the covering law model, turns out to be problematic for these explanations. We wil

  12. Why Friedman's non-monotonic reasoning defies Hempel's covering law model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); Yao-Hua Tan (Yao Hua)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we will show that Hempel's covering law model can't deal very well with explanations that are based on incomplete knowledge. In particular the symmetry thesis, which is an important aspect of the covering law model, turns out to be problematic for these explanations. We wil

  13. Finite mixture models for sub-pixel coastal land cover classification

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ritchie, Michaela C

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available mixture models have been used to generate sub-pixel land cover classifications, however, traditionally this makes use of mixtures of normal distributions. However, these models fail to represent many land cover classes accurately, as these are usually...

  14. Influence of snow cover changes on surface radiation and heat balance based on the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lingxue; Liu, Tingxiang; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping; Zhang, Shuwen

    2016-07-01

    The snow cover extent in mid-high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere has significantly declined corresponding to the global warming, especially since the 1970s. Snow-climate feedbacks play a critical role in regulating the global radiation balance and influencing surface heat flux exchange. However, the degree to which snow cover changes affect the radiation budget and energy balance on a regional scale and the difference between snow-climate and land use/cover change (LUCC)-climate feedbacks have been rarely studied. In this paper, we selected Heilongjiang Basin, where the snow cover has changed obviously, as our study area and used the WRF model to simulate the influences of snow cover changes on the surface radiation budget and heat balance. In the scenario simulation, the localized surface parameter data improved the accuracy by 10 % compared with the control group. The spatial and temporal analysis of the surface variables showed that the net surface radiation, sensible heat flux, Bowen ratio, temperature and percentage of snow cover were negatively correlated and that the ground heat flux and latent heat flux were positively correlated with the percentage of snow cover. The spatial analysis also showed that a significant relationship existed between the surface variables and land cover types, which was not obviously as that for snow cover changes. Finally, six typical study areas were selected to quantitatively analyse the influence of land cover types beneath the snow cover on heat absorption and transfer, which showed that when the land was snow covered, the conversion of forest to farmland can dramatically influence the net radiation and other surface variables, whereas the snow-free land showed significantly reduced influence. Furthermore, compared with typical land cover changes, e.g., the conversion of forest into farmland, the influence of snow cover changes on net radiation and sensible heat flux were 60 % higher than that of land cover changes

  15. Infiltration under snow cover: Modeling approaches and predictive uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeks, Jessica; Moeck, Christian; Brunner, Philip; Hunkeler, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    Groundwater recharge from snowmelt represents a temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is extremely important because the rate and timing of snowpack drainage has substantial consequences to aquifer recharge patterns, which in turn affect groundwater availability throughout the rest of the year. The modeling methods developed to estimate drainage from a snowpack, which typically rely on temporally-dense point-measurements or temporally-limited spatially-dispersed calibration data, range in complexity from the simple degree-day method to more complex and physically-based energy balance approaches. While the gamut of snowmelt models are routinely used to aid in water resource management, a comparison of snowmelt models' predictive uncertainties had previously not been done. Therefore, we established a snowmelt model calibration dataset that is both temporally dense and represents the integrated snowmelt infiltration signal for the Vers Chez le Brandt research catchment, which functions as a rather unique natural lysimeter. We then evaluated the uncertainty associated with the degree-day, a modified degree-day and energy balance snowmelt model predictions using the null-space Monte Carlo approach. All three melt models underestimate total snowpack drainage, underestimate the rate of early and midwinter drainage and overestimate spring snowmelt rates. The actual rate of snowpack water loss is more constant over the course of the entire winter season than the snowmelt models would imply, indicating that mid-winter melt can contribute as significantly as springtime snowmelt to groundwater recharge in low alpine settings. Further, actual groundwater recharge could be between 2 and 31% greater than snowmelt models suggest, over the total winter season. This study shows that snowmelt model predictions can have considerable uncertainty, which may be reduced by the inclusion of more data that allows for the use of more complex approaches such as the energy balance

  16. Modeling photosynthesis in sea ice-covered waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Matthew C.; Lindsay, Keith; Holland, Marika M.

    2015-09-01

    The lower trophic levels of marine ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth System mediating fluxes of carbon to the ocean interior. Many of the functional relationships describing biological rate processes, such as primary productivity, in marine ecosystem models are nonlinear functions of environmental state variables. As a result of nonlinearity, rate processes computed from mean fields at coarse resolution will differ from similar computations that incorporate small-scale heterogeneity. Here we examine how subgrid-scale variability in sea ice thickness impacts simulated net primary productivity (NPP) in a 1°×1° configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM simulates a subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution and computes shortwave penetration independently for each ice thickness category. However, the default model formulation uses grid-cell mean irradiance to compute NPP. We demonstrate that accounting for subgrid-scale shortwave heterogeneity by computing light limitation terms under each ice category then averaging the result is a more accurate invocation of the photosynthesis equations. Moreover, this change delays seasonal bloom onset and increases interannual variability in NPP in the sea ice zone in the model. The new treatment reduces annual production by about 32% in the Arctic and 19% in the Antarctic. Our results highlight the importance of considering heterogeneity in physical fields when integrating nonlinear biogeochemical reactions.

  17. Pyrolysis Model Development for a Multilayer Floor Covering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark B. McKinnon

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive pyrolysis models that are integral to computational fire codes have improved significantly over the past decade as the demand for improved predictive capabilities has increased. High fidelity pyrolysis models may improve the design of engineered materials for better fire response, the design of the built environment, and may be used in forensic investigations of fire events. A major limitation to widespread use of comprehensive pyrolysis models is the large number of parameters required to fully define a material and the lack of effective methodologies for measurement of these parameters, especially for complex materials. The work presented here details a methodology used to characterize the pyrolysis of a low-pile carpet tile, an engineered composite material that is common in commercial and institutional occupancies. The studied material includes three distinct layers of varying composition and physical structure. The methodology utilized a comprehensive pyrolysis model (ThermaKin to conduct inverse analyses on data collected through several experimental techniques. Each layer of the composite was individually parameterized to identify its contribution to the overall response of the composite. The set of properties measured to define the carpet composite were validated against mass loss rate curves collected at conditions outside the range of calibration conditions to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model. The mean error between the predicted curve and the mean experimental mass loss rate curve was calculated as approximately 20% on average for heat fluxes ranging from 30 to 70 kW·m−2, which is within the mean experimental uncertainty.

  18. Modeling debris-covered glaciers: extension due to steady debris input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Anderson

    2015-11-01

    Debris-forced glacier extension decreases the ratio of accumulation zone to total glacier area (AAR. The model reproduces first-order relationships between debris cover, AARs, and glacier surface velocities from glaciers in High Asia. We provide a quantitative, theoretical foundation to interpret the effect of debris cover on the moraine record, and to assess the effects of climate change on debris-covered glaciers.

  19. [NDVI difference rate recognition model of deciduous broad-leaved forest based on HJ-CCD remote sensing data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Tian, Qing-Jiu; Huang, Yan; Wei, Hong-Wei

    2013-04-01

    The present paper takes Chuzhou in Anhui Province as the research area, and deciduous broad-leaved forest as the research object. Then it constructs the recognition model about deciduous broad-leaved forest was constructed using NDVI difference rate between leaf expansion and flowering and fruit-bearing, and the model was applied to HJ-CCD remote sensing image on April 1, 2012 and May 4, 2012. At last, the spatial distribution map of deciduous broad-leaved forest was extracted effectively, and the results of extraction were verified and evaluated. The result shows the validity of NDVI difference rate extraction method proposed in this paper and also verifies the applicability of using HJ-CCD data for vegetation classification and recognition.

  20. Tree cover bistability in the MPI Earth system model due to fire-vegetation feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasslop, Gitta; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The global distribution of tree cover is mainly limited by precipitation and temperature. Within tropical ecosystems different tree cover values have been observed in regions with similar climate. Satellite data even revealed a lack of ecosystems with tree coverage around 60% and dominant tree covers of 20% and 80%. Conceptual models have been used to explain this tree cover distribution and base it on a bistability in tree cover caused by fire-vegetation interactions or competition between trees and grasses. Some ecological models also show this property of multiple stable tree covers, but it remains unclear which mechanism is the cause for this behaviour. Vegetation models used in climate simulations usually use simple approaches and were criticised to neglect such ecological theories and misrepresent tropical tree cover distribution and dynamics. Here we show that including the process based fire model SPITFIRE generated a bistability in tree cover in the land surface model JSBACH. Previous model versions showed only one stable tree cover state. Using a conceptual model we can show that a bistability can occur due to a feedback between grasses and fire. Grasses and trees are represented in the model based on plant functional types. With respect to fire the main difference between grasses and trees is the fuel characteristics. Grass fuels are smaller in size, and have a higher surface area to volume ratio. These grass fuels dry faster increasing their flammability which leads to a higher fire rate of spread. Trees are characterized by coarse fuels, which are less likely to ignite and rather suppress fire. Therefore a higher fraction of grasses promotes fire, fire kills trees and following a fire, grasses establish faster. This feedback can stabilize ecosystems with low tree cover in a low tree cover state and systems with high tree cover in a high tree cover state. In previous model versions this feedback was absent. Based on the new JSBACH model driven with

  1. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  2. Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naha, Shaini; Thakur, Praveen K.; Aggarwal, S. P.

    2016-06-01

    The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH) have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006). Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU), rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated using observed

  3. Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naha

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006. Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU, rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated

  4. A Variable Precision Covering-Based Rough Set Model Based on Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanqing Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical rough set theory is a technique of granular computing for handling the uncertainty, vagueness, and granularity in information systems. Covering-based rough sets are proposed to generalize this theory for dealing with covering data. By introducing a concept of misclassification rate functions, an extended variable precision covering-based rough set model is proposed in this paper. In addition, we define the f-lower and f-upper approximations in terms of neighborhoods in the extended model and study their properties. Particularly, two coverings with the same reductions are proved to generate the same f-lower and f-upper approximations. Finally, we discuss the relationships between the new model and some other variable precision rough set models.

  5. Forcing the snow-cover model SNOWPACK with forecasted weather data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bellaire

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large (>50 000 km2 and snow cover data are often not available. To provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional weather forecasting model GEM15. The output of GEM15 was compared to meteorological as well as snow cover data from Mt. Fidelity, British Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Precipitation amounts are most difficult to predict for weather forecasting models. Therefore, we first assess the capability of the model chain to forecast new snow amounts and consequently snow depth. Forecasted precipitation amounts were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input data the snow depth and new snow events were well modelled. In a case study two key factors of snow cover instability, i.e. surface hoar formation and crust formation were investigated at a single point. Over half of the relevant critical layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain shows promising potential as a future forecasting tool for avalanche warning services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to similarly large regions elsewhere. However, a more detailed analysis of the simulated snow cover structure is still required.

  6. Modeling the spatial variability of snow instability with the snow cover model SNOWPACK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Bettina; Reuter, Benjamin; Gaume, Johan; Fierz, Charles; Bavay, Mathias; van Herwijnen, Alec; Schweizer, Jürg

    2016-04-01

    Snow stratigraphy - key information for avalanche forecasting - can be obtained using numerical snow cover models driven by meteorological data. Simulations are typically performed for the locations of automatic weather station or for virtual slopes of varying aspect. However, it is unclear to which extent these simulations can represent the snowpack properties in the surrounding terrain, in particular snow instability, which is known to vary in space. To address this issue, we implemented two newly developed snow instability criteria in SNOWPACK relating to failure initiation and crack propagation, two fundamental processes for dry-snow slab avalanche release. Snow cover simulations were performed for the Steintälli field site above Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps), where snowpack data from several field campaigns are available. In each campaign, about 150 vertical snow penetration resistance profiles were sampled with the snow micro-penetrometer (SMP). For each profile, SMP and SNOWPACK- based instability criteria were compared. In addition, we carried out SNOWPACK simulations for multiple aspects and slope angles, allowing to obtain statistical distributions of the snow instability at the basin scale. Comparing the modeled to the observed distributions of snow instability suggests that it is feasible to obtain an adequate spatial representation of snow instability without high resolution distributed modeling. Hence, for the purpose of regional avalanche forecasting, simulations for a selection of virtual slopes seems sufficient to assess the influence of basic terrain features such as aspect and elevation.

  7. Porous Media and Immersed Boundary Hybrid-Modelling for Simulating Flow in Stone Cover-Layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjarne; Liu, Xiaofeng; Christensen, Erik Damgaard

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we present a new numerical modelling approach for coastal and marine applications where a porous media conceptual model was combined with a free surface volume-of-fluid (VOF) model and an immersed boundary method (IBM). The immersed boundary model covers the method of describing a s....... In this paper, the model is applied to investigate two practical cases in terms of a cover layer of stones on a flat bed under oscillatory flow at different packing densities, and a rock toe structure at a breakwater....

  8. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  9. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C Sudhakar Reddy; Sonali Singh; V K Dadhwal; C S Jha; N Rama Rao; P G Diwakar

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km², which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880–2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multilayer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  10. Assessment Of The Impact Of ESA CCI Land Cover Information For Global Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Loew, A.; Hangemann, S.; Defourny, P.; Brockmann, C.; Bontemps, S.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing the issues of climate change, the European Space Agency has recently initiated the Global Monitoring of an Essential Climate Variables program (ESA Climate Change Initiative). The main objective is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA has established over the last thirty years. Due to well organized data access and transparency for the data quality, as well as long-term scientific and technical support, the provided datasets have become very attractive for the use in Earth System Modeling. The Max Plank Institute for Meteorology is contributing to the ESA CCI via the Climate Modeler User Group (CMUG) activities and is responsible for providing a modeler perspective on the Land Cover and Fire Essential Climate Variables. The new ESA land cover ECV has recently released a new global 300-m land cover dataset. This dataset is supported by an interactive tool which allows flexible horizontal re-scaling and conversion from currently accepted satellite specific land classes to the model- specific Plant Functional Types (PFT) categorization. Such a dataset is an ideal starting point for the generation of the land cover information for the initialization of model cover fractions. In this presentation, we show how the usage of this new dataset affects the model performance, comparing it to the standard model set-up, in terms of energy and water fluxes. To do so, we performed a number of offline land-system simulations with original standard JSBACH land cover information and with the new ESA CCI land cover product. We have analyzed the impact of land cover on a simulated surface albedo, temperature and energy fluxes as well as on the biomass load and fire carbon emissions.

  11. Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, I.-Y.; Lee, S.; Sadeghi, A. M.; Beeson, P. C.; Hively, W. D.; McCarty, G. W.; Lang, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality at the watershed scale (~ 50 km2) and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data to simulate hydrological processes and agricultural nutrient cycling over the period of 1990-2000. To accurately simulate winter cover crop biomass in relation to growing conditions, a new approach was developed to further calibrate plant growth parameters that control the leaf area development curve using multitemporal satellite-based measurements of species-specific winter cover crop performance. Multiple SWAT scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops and to investigate how nitrate loading could change under different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting dates, and implementation areas. The simulation results indicate that winter cover crops have a negligible impact on the water budget but significantly reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading from agricultural lands was approximately 14 kg ha-1, but decreased to 4.6-10.1 kg ha-1 with cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27-67% at the watershed scale. Rye was the most effective species, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of cover crops (~ 30

  12. Modeling of methane oxidation in landfill cover soil using an artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Basri, Noor Ezlin Ahmad; Elfithri, Rahmah; Younes, Mohammad K; Irwan, Dani

    2014-02-01

    Knowing the fraction of methane (CH4) oxidized in landfill cover soils is an important step in estimating the total CH4 emissions from any landfill. Predicting CH4 oxidation in landfill cover soils is a difficult task because it is controlled by a number of biological and environmental factors. This study proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) approach using feedforward backpropagation to predict CH4 oxidation in landfill cover soil in relation to air temperature, soil moisture content, oxygen (O2) concentration at a depth of 10 cm in cover soil, and CH4 concentration at the bottom of cover soil. The optimum ANN model giving the lowest mean square error (MSE) was configured from three layers, with 12 and 9 neurons at the first and the second hidden layers, respectively, log-sigmoid (logsig) transfer function at the hidden and output layers, and the Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. This study revealed that the ANN oxidation model can predict CH4 oxidation with a MSE of 0.0082, a coefficient of determination (R2) between the measured and predicted outputs of up to 0.937, and a model efficiency (E) of 0.8978. To conclude, further developments of the proposed ANN model are required to generalize and apply the model to other landfills with different cover soil properties.

  13. Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Through the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model Version 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong-Fei; Hoar, Tim J.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Toure, Ally M.; Rodell, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    To improve snowpack estimates in Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) was assimilated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) via the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The interface between CLM4 and DART is a flexible, extensible approach to land surface data assimilation. This data assimilation system has a large ensemble (80-member) atmospheric forcing that facilitates ensemble-based land data assimilation. We use 40 randomly chosen forcing members to drive 40 CLM members as a compromise between computational cost and the data assimilation performance. The localization distance, a parameter in DART, was tuned to optimize the data assimilation performance at the global scale. Snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth are adjusted via the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, particularly in regions with large SCF variability. The root-mean-square error of the forecast SCF against MODIS SCF is largely reduced. In DJF (December-January-February), the discrepancy between MODIS and CLM4 is broadly ameliorated in the lower-middle latitudes (2345N). Only minimal modifications are made in the higher-middle (4566N) and high latitudes, part of which is due to the agreement between model and observation when snow cover is nearly 100. In some regions it also reveals that CLM4-modeled snow cover lacks heterogeneous features compared to MODIS. In MAM (March-April-May), adjustments to snowmove poleward mainly due to the northward movement of the snowline (i.e., where largest SCF uncertainty is and SCF assimilation has the greatest impact). The effectiveness of data assimilation also varies with vegetation types, with mixed performance over forest regions and consistently good performance over grass, which can partly be explained by the linearity of the relationship between SCF and SWE in the model ensembles. The updated snow depth was compared to the Canadian Meteorological

  14. Modelling Effects of Cover Material and Cover Depth on Hydrological Regime and Salt Redistribution in Reclaimed Oil Sand Landscapes in Northern Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welegedara, N.; Grant, R. F.; Quideau, S.; Lloret, E.

    2014-12-01

    Large-Scale surface mining is continuing in the Athabasca oil sands region in northern Alberta, Canada, causing significant ecosystem disturbances and changes in hydrology. Reclamation efforts in this region require understanding processes that control water, nutrient and salt fluxes through reclaimed landscapes which is critical to restoring their productivity. These processes were tested in a comprehensive mathematical model, ecosys, which was used to determine the effect of different cover thicknesses on water balance, water buffering capacity, salinity and the productivity in the South Bison Hills reclamation site of Syncrude Canada (SCL). This site was constructed in 1999 by capping peat mineral mix and secondary (glacial till) soil over saline sodic overburden. The site was constructed with three different soil cover thicknesses: 35 cm (thin), 50 cm (intermediate) and 100 cm (thick) along a 20% north facing slope. Model outputs were validated with field measured volumetric water content, runoff, snow data, electrical conductivity (EC) and plant productivity data recorded from 1999 to 2013. Model and field results show differences in horizontal and vertical water transport among the three reclaimed prototype covers. Lower water retention capacity in the 35 cm cover compared to the 50 cm and 100 cm covers caused greater soil moisture variation so that permanent wilting point was reached during dry years, decreasing plant growth due to water stress. In addition, the modeled and field-measured EC values indicated some upward salt movement from overburden to cover material over the time. This movement caused higher EC values (6 - 8 dS m-1) to be reached in the shallow rooting zone of the 35 cm and 50 cm covers than of the 100 cm cover several years after the covers were established. The determination of cost effective but ecologically sustainable cover depth is a challenge and will be a focus in future simulations.

  15. Modelling high-resolution snow cover precipitation supply for German river catchments with SNOW 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, Uwe; Reich, Thomas; Schneider, Gerold; Fiedler, Anett

    2013-04-01

    Formation of snow cover causes a delayed response of surface to precipitation. Both melting of snow and release of liquid water retained within the snow cover form precipitation supply which contributes to runoff and infiltration. The model SNOW 4 is developed to simulate snow cover accumulation and depletion and the resulting precipitation supply on a regular grid. The core of the model is formed by a set of equations which describe the snow cover energy and mass balance. The snow surface energy balance is calculated as a result of the radiation balance and the heat fluxes between atmosphere, soil and snow cover. The available melting heat enters the mass balance computation part of the model and melting of snow or freezing of liquid water within the snow layer takes place depending on its sign. Retention, aging and snow cover regeneration are taken into consideration. The model runs operationally 4 times a day and provides both a snow cover and precipitation supply analysis for the last 30 hours and a forecast for up to 72 hours. For the 30-hour analysis, regionalised observations are used both to define the initial state and force the model. Hourly measurements of air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, global radiation or sunshine duration and precipitation are interpolated to the model grid. For the forecast period, SNOW 4 obtains the required input data from the operational products of the COSMO-EU weather forecast model. The size of a grid box is 1km2. The model area covers a region of 1100x1000km2 and includes the catchments of the German rivers completely. The internal time step is set to 1 hour. Once a day, the compliance between model and regionalized snow cover data is assessed. If discrepancies exceed certain thresholds, the model must be adjusted by a weighted approach towards the observations. The model simulations are updated every six hours based on the most recent observations and weather forecasts. The model works operationally since

  16. Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All

  17. Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, In-Young; Lee, Sangchui; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Beeson, Peter C.; Hively, W. Dean; McCarty, Greg W.; Lang, Megan W.

    2013-01-01

    Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW), which is located in the Mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of winter cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops at the watershed scale and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically-based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data and satellite-based estimates of winter cover crop species performance to simulate hydrological processes and nutrient cycling over the period of 1991–2000. Multiple scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops planted and to investigate how nitrate loading could change with different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting times, and implementation areas. The results indicate that winter cover crops had a negligible impact on water budget, but significantly reduced nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading was approximately 14 kg ha−1, but it decreased to 4.6–10.1 kg ha−1 with winter cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27–67% at the watershed scale. Rye was most effective, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of winter cover crops (~30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~2 kg ha−1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of winter cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils

  18. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  19. Capability of Spaceborne Hyperspectral EnMAP Mission for Mapping Fractional Cover for Soil Erosion Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Malec

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion can be linked to relative fractional cover of photosynthetic-active vegetation (PV, non-photosynthetic-active vegetation (NPV and bare soil (BS, which can be integrated into erosion models as the cover-management C-factor. This study investigates the capability of EnMAP imagery to map fractional cover in a region near San Jose, Costa Rica, characterized by spatially extensive coffee plantations and grazing in a mountainous terrain. Simulated EnMAP imagery is based on airborne hyperspectral HyMap data. Fractional cover estimates are derived in an automated fashion by extracting image endmembers to be used with a Multiple End-member Spectral Mixture Analysis approach. The C-factor is calculated based on the fractional cover estimates determined independently for EnMAP and HyMap. Results demonstrate that with EnMAP imagery it is possible to extract quality endmember classes with important spectral features related to PV, NPV and soil, and be able to estimate relative cover fractions. This spectral information is critical to separate BS and NPV which greatly can impact the C-factor derivation. From a regional perspective, we can use EnMAP to provide good fractional cover estimates that can be integrated into soil erosion modeling.

  20. Modeling Turkish M2 broad money demand: a portfolio-based approach using implications for monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Levent, Korap

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a money demand model upon M2 broad monetary aggregate for the Turkish economy is examined in a portfolio-based approach considering various alternative cost measures to hold money. Employing multivariate co-integration methodology of the same order integrated variables, our estimation results indicate that there exists a theoretically plausible co-integrating vector in the long-run money demand variable space. The main alternative costs to demand for money are found as the depr...

  1. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  2. A probabilistic graphical model approach in 30 m land cover mapping with multiple data sources

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jie; Ji, Luyan; Huang, Xiaomeng; Fu, Haohuan; Xu, Shiming; Li, Congcong

    2016-01-01

    There is a trend to acquire high accuracy land-cover maps using multi-source classification methods, most of which are based on data fusion, especially pixel- or feature-level fusions. A probabilistic graphical model (PGM) approach is proposed in this research for 30 m resolution land-cover mapping with multi-temporal Landsat and MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Independent classifiers were applied to two single-date Landsat 8 scenes and the MODIS time-series data, ...

  3. A methodology for model-based greenhouse design: Part 1, a greenhouse climate model for a broad range of designs and climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanthoor, B.H.E.; Stanghellini, C.; Henten, van E.J.; Visser, de P.H.B.

    2011-01-01

    With the aim of developing a model-based method to design greenhouses for a broad range of climatic and economic conditions, a greenhouse climate model has been developed and validated. This model describes the effects of the outdoor climate and greenhouse design on the indoor greenhouse climate. Fo

  4. Assessing the use of global land cover data for guiding large area population distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Gilbert, Marius; Tatem, Andrew J

    2011-10-01

    Gridded population distribution data are finding increasing use in a wide range of fields, including resource allocation, disease burden estimation and climate change impact assessment. Land cover information can be used in combination with detailed settlement extents to redistribute aggregated census counts to improve the accuracy of national-scale gridded population data. In East Africa, such analyses have been done using regional land cover data, thus restricting application of the approach to this region. If gridded population data are to be improved across Africa, an alternative, consistent and comparable source of land cover data is required. Here these analyses were repeated for Kenya using four continent-wide land cover datasets combined with detailed settlement extents and accuracies were assessed against detailed census data. The aim was to identify the large area land cover dataset that, combined with detailed settlement extents, produce the most accurate population distribution data. The effectiveness of the population distribution modelling procedures in the absence of high resolution census data was evaluated, as was the extrapolation ability of population densities between different regions. Results showed that the use of the GlobCover dataset refined with detailed settlement extents provided significantly more accurate gridded population data compared to the use of refined AVHRR-derived, MODIS-derived and GLC2000 land cover datasets. This study supports the hypothesis that land cover information is important for improving population distribution model accuracies, particularly in countries where only coarse resolution census data are available. Obtaining high resolution census data must however remain the priority. With its higher spatial resolution and its more recent data acquisition, the GlobCover dataset was found as the most valuable resource to use in combination with detailed settlement extents for the production of gridded population datasets

  5. Towards a portable, scalable, open source model of tree cover derived from Landsat spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, J. A.; Xu, Q.; Morrison, B. D.; Xu, Z.; Man, A.; Fredrickson, M. M.; Ramirez, C.; Li, B.

    2016-12-01

    Tree cover is a key parameter used in a variety of applications, including ecosystem and fire behavior modeling, wildlife management, and is the primary way by which a variety of biomes are classified. At large scales, quantification of tree cover can help elucidate changes in deforestation and forest recovery and understand the relationship between climate and forest distributions. To determine tree cover at large scales, remote sensing-based methods are required. There exist a variety of products at various scales and extents, including two global products, Hansen et al.'s treecover2000 product and Sexton et al.'s Landsat Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product. While these products serve an important role, they are only available for a limited set of dates: treecover2000 is available for the year 2000, and Landsat VCF for 2000 and 2005. In this analysis, we created a single model of tree cover as a function of Landsat spectra that is both calibrated and validated using small footprint LiDAR estimates of tree cover, trained across multiple Landsat scenes. Our model was found to be accurate and portable across space and time largely due to using a large amount of LiDAR - Landsat pixel pairs across multiple Landsat scenes to capture both sensor and scene heterogeneity. We will be releasing the model itself, rather than time-limited products, to allow other users to apply the model to any reflectance-calibrated Landsat scene from any time period.

  6. A grid-based model of backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Steiner, Jakob F|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/119338653; Miles, Evan S.; Immerzeel, Wouter W|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Ice cliffs might be partly responsible for the high mass losses of debris-covered glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region. The few existing models of cliff backwasting are point-scale models applied at few locations or assume cliffs to be planes with constant slope and aspect, a major

  7. Using set covering with item sampling to analyze the infeasibility of linear programming test assembly models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huitzing, HA

    2004-01-01

    This article shows how set covering with item sampling (SCIS) methods can be used in the analysis and preanalysis of linear programming models for test assembly (LPTA). LPTA models can construct tests, fulfilling a set of constraints set by the test assembler. Sometimes, no solution to the LPTA mode

  8. Mapping woody plant cover in desert grasslands using canopy reflectance modeling and MISR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopping, Mark J.; Su, Lihong; Laliberte, Andrea; Rango, Albert; Peters, Debra P. C.; Martonchik, John V.

    2006-09-01

    A simplified geometric-optical model (SGM) was inverted using red band reflectance data acquired at 275 m in nine viewing angles from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) flown on NASA's Terra satellite, to provide estimates of fractional woody plant cover for large areas (over 3519 km2) in parts of the Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico, USA. The use of the model in these semi-arid environments was enabled by the derivation of a priori estimates of the soil/understory background reflectance response. This was made possible by determining relationships between the kernel weights from a LiSparse-RossThin model adjusted against the same MISR data - together with spectral reflectance data derived from MISR's nadir-viewing camera - and the parameters of the Walthall model used to represent the background. Spatial distributions of retrieved fractional woody plant cover match those of % tree cover in the global MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields product but also include shrubs. Good relationships were obtained with fractional shrub cover measured in pastures in the USDA, ARS Jornada Experimental Range but tree cover in higher elevation and riparian zones was dramatically over-estimated as a result of the fixing of crown height and shape parameters.

  9. Artificial neural network model to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duchesne, Marc A. [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Macchi, Arturo [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); Lu, Dennis Y.; Hughes, Robin W.; McCalden, David; Anthony, Edward J. [CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-08-15

    Threshold slag viscosity heuristics are often used for the initial assessment of coal gasification projects. Slag viscosity predictions are also required for advanced combustion and gasification models. Due to unsatisfactory performance of theoretical equations, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions. This model outperforms other slag viscosity models, resulting in an average error factor of 5.05 which is lower than the best obtained with other available models. Genesee coal ash viscosity predictions were made to investigate the effect of adding Canadian limestone and dolomite. The results indicate that magnesium in the fluxing agent provides a greater viscosity reduction than calcium for the threshold slag tapping temperature range. (author)

  10. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  11. Block and parallel modelling of broad domain nonlinear continuous mapping based on NN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Guowei; Tu Xuyan; Wang Shoujue

    2006-01-01

    The necessity of the use of the block and parallel modeling of the nonlinear continuous mappings with NN is firstly expounded quantitatively. Then, a practical approach for the block and parallel modeling of the nonlinear continuous mappings with NN is proposed. Finally, an example indicating that the method raised in this paper can be realized by suitable existed software is given. The results of the experiment of the model discussed on the 3-D Mexican straw hat indicate that the block and parallel modeling based on NN is more precise and faster in computation than the direct ones and it is obviously a concrete example and the development of the large-scale general model established by Tu Xuyan.

  12. Broad-band modelling of short gamma-ray bursts with energy injection from magnetar spin-down and its implications for radio detectability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.P. Gompertz; A.J. van der Horst; P.T. O'Brien; G.A. Wynn; K. Wiersema

    2015-01-01

    The magnetar model has been proposed to explain the apparent energy injection in the X-ray light curves of short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs), but its implications across the full broad-band spectrum are not well explored. We investigate the broad-band modelling of four SGRBs with evidence for energy in

  13. Cloud cover diurnal cycles in satellite data and regional climate model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfeifroth, Uwe; Ahrens, Bodo [Frankfurt Univ., Frankfurt am Main (Germany). Inst. for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences; Hollmann, Rainer [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany)

    2012-12-15

    The amount and diurnal cycle of cloud cover play an important role in the energy and water cycle of the earth-atmosphere system and influence the radiation budget of the earth. Due to its importance and the challenging nature of its quantification, cloud cover is considered the biggest uncertainty factor in climate modeling. There is a clear need for reliable cloud datasets suitable for climate model evaluation studies. This study analyzes two datasets of cloud cover and its diurnal cycle derived from satellite observations by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and by EUMETSAT's Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) in Africa and Europe. Two regions, Europe and the subtropical southern Atlantic Ocean, were identified as offering distinct cloud cover diurnal cycles reasonably observed by both satellite datasets. In these regions, simulations by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) were evaluated in terms of cloud cover and its diurnal cycle during the time period of 1990 to 2007. Results show that the satellite derived cloud diurnal cycles largely agree, while discrepancies occur under extreme conditions like in the Sahara region. The CCLM is able to simulate the diurnal cycle observed consistently in the two satellite datasets in the South-Atlantic ocean, but not in Europe. CCLM misses the afternoon maximum cloud cover in Summer in Europe, which implies deficiencies in the parameterization of convection and in the treatment of surface-atmosphere interactions. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of the more stratiform cloud cover over the subtropical Atlantic was satisfactory in CCLM. (orig.)

  14. The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kaiser

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a local case study is presented in which detailed inundation simulations have been performed to support damage analysis and risk assessment related to the 2004 tsunami in Phang Nga and Phuket, Thailand. Besides tsunami sources, bathymetry and topography, bottom roughness induced by vegetation and built environment is considered to influence inundation characteristics, such as water depths or flow velocities and therefore attracts major attention in this work. Plenty of information available on the 2004 tsunami event, high-resolution satellite imagery and extensive field measurements to derive land cover information and forest stand parameters facilitated the generation of topographic datasets, land cover maps and site-specific Manning values for the most prominent land cover classes in the study areas. The numerical models ComMIT and Mike 21 FM were used to hindcast the observed tsunami inundation and to draw conclusions on the influence of land cover on inundation patterns. Results show a strong influence of dense vegetation on flow velocities, which were reduced by up to 50% by mangroves, while the inundation extent is influenced only to a lesser extent. In urban areas, the disregard of buildings in the model led to a significant overestimation of the inundation extent. Hence different approaches to consider buildings were used and analyzed in the model. The case study highlights the importance and quantifies the effects of considering land cover roughness in inundation simulations used for local risk assessment.

  15. Broad-band colors and overall photometric properties of template galaxy models from stellar population synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Buzzoni, Alberto

    2005-01-01

    We present here a new set of evolutionary population synthesis models for template galaxies along the Hubble morphological sequence. The models, that account for the individual evolution of the bulge, disk, and halo components, provide basic morphological features, along with bolometric luminosity and color evolution (including Johnson/Cousins "UBVRcIcJHK", Gunn "gri", and Washington "CMT1T2" photometric systems) between 1 and 15 Gyr. Luminosity contribution from residual gas is also evaluate...

  16. Data sets for snow cover monitoring and modelling from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, M.; Daniels, K.; Scott, D.; McLean, B.; Weaver, R.

    2003-04-01

    A wide range of snow cover monitoring and modelling data sets are pending or are currently available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). In-situ observations support validation experiments that enhance the accuracy of remote sensing data. In addition, remote sensing data are available in near-real time, providing coarse-resolution snow monitoring capability. Time series data beginning in 1966 are valuable for modelling efforts. NSIDC holdings include SMMR and SSM/I snow cover data, MODIS snow cover extent products, in-situ and satellite data collected for NASA's recent Cold Land Processes Experiment, and soon-to-be-released ASMR-E passive microwave products. The AMSR-E and MODIS sensors are part of NASA's Earth Observing System flying on the Terra and Aqua satellites Characteristics of these NSIDC-held data sets, appropriateness of products for specific applications, and data set access and availability will be presented.

  17. Broad-band colors and overall photometric properties of template galaxy models from stellar population synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Buzzoni, A

    2005-01-01

    We present here a new set of evolutionary population synthesis models for template galaxies along the Hubble morphological sequence. The models, that account for the individual evolution of the bulge, disk, and halo components, provide basic morphological features, along with bolometric luminosity and color evolution (including Johnson/Cousins "UBVRcIcJHK", Gunn "gri", and Washington "CMT1T2" photometric systems) between 1 and 15 Gyr. Luminosity contribution from residual gas is also evaluated, both in terms of nebular continuum and Balmer-line enhancement.

  18. Pollen-based land-cover change during the Holocene in temperate China for climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Furong; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Mazier, Florence; Xu, Qinghai; Cao, Xianyong; Herxschuh, Ulrike; Zhao, Yan

    2017-04-01

    Quantification of the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of human-induced land-cover change (land-use) on climate in the past is still a subject of debate. Progress in our understanding of the net effect of land-use change on climate greatly depends on the availability of reliable, empirical reconstructions of anthropogenic vegetation change. China is one of the key regions of the world where agricultural civilizations flourished during a large part of the Holocene. However, the role of human activity in vegetation change is not yet fully understood. As a contribution to LandCover6k, we present the first pollen-based reconstruction of land-cover change, both climate-(natural) and human-induced, over the Holocene in temperate China using the REVEALS model (Sugita, 2007). The REVEALS model requires values of pollen productivity for the major plants characteristic of the study region. We performed the first evaluation of the relative pollen productivities (RPP) available from temperate China and established a tentative standard RPP dataset for 31 plant taxa. These RPP values were used together with 95 pollen records from temperate China grouped into 35 groups for the REVEALS application. The REVEALS-based values of plant cover strongly differ from the pollen percentages. As in Europe, pollen percentages generally underestimate the cover of herbs in the vegetation, except for Artemisia that is overrepresented by pollen. As expected, human-induced deforestation is highest in eastern China with 3 major phases of decreasing woodland cover at ca. 5.5-5k, 3.5-3k and 2k calendar years BP. Disentangling human-induced from climate-induced land-cover change requires thorough comparison of the REVEALS reconstructions with historical and archaeological data. Sugita S (2007) The Holocene, 17(2): 229-241.

  19. Optimized Variational 1D Boussinesq Modelling for broad-band waves over flat bottom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakhturov, I.; Adytia, D.; Groesen, van E.

    2012-01-01

    The Variational Boussinesq Model (VBM) for waves above a layer of ideal fluid conserves mass, momentum, energy, and has decreased dimensionality compared to the full problem. It is derived from the Hamiltonian formulation via an approximation of the kinetic energy, and can provide approximate disper

  20. Optimized variational Boussinesq modelling; part 1: Broad-band waves over flat bottom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakhturov, I.; Groesen, van E.

    2010-01-01

    The Variational Boussinesq Model (VBM) for waves above a layer of ideal fluid conserves mass, momentum, energy, and has decreased dimensionality compared to the full problem. It is derived from the Hamiltonian formulation via an approximation of the kinetic energy, and can provide approximate disper

  1. Models for Broad Area Event Identification and Yield Estimation: Multiple Coda Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    microearthquakes accompanying hydraulic fracturing in granitic rock, Bull. Seism . Soc. Am., 81, 553-575, 1991. Fisk, M. and S. R. Taylor, (2007...146882, pp. 13. Yang, X., T. Lay, X.-B. Xie, and M. S. Thorne (2007). Geometric spreading of Pn and Sn in a spherical Earth model, Bull. Seism . Soc

  2. Optimized Variational 1D Boussinesq Modelling for broad-band waves over flat bottom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakhturov, I.; Adytia, D.; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    The Variational Boussinesq Model (VBM) for waves above a layer of ideal fluid conserves mass, momentum, energy, and has decreased dimensionality compared to the full problem. It is derived from the Hamiltonian formulation via an approximation of the kinetic energy, and can provide approximate

  3. The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuttleworth, W. James; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    1996-01-01

    This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be

  4. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, J.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of

  5. Modelling ice-cliff backwasting on a debris-covered glacier in the Nepalese Himalaya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steiner, Jakob F.; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113; Reid, Tim D.

    2015-01-01

    Ice cliffs have been identified as a reason for higher ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers than are implied by the insulation effects of the debris. This study aims to improve our understanding of cliff backwasting, and the role of radiative fluxes in particular. An energy-balance model is

  6. Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, van Hans; Vliet, van Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms

  7. Including the effects of debris cover in a distributed glacier energy balance model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellicciotti, F.; Reid, T.; Carenzo, M.; Brock, B. W.

    2010-12-01

    Distributed models of glacier energy balance, which make use of digital elevation models and extensive spatial data on local meteorology, have become very useful tools for predicting glacial ablation and runoff in recent years. They generally function by running a one-dimensional energy balance model at every point on a grid on the glacier surface - for each point in the grid the ablation is calculated based on the balance of heat fluxes at the ice-air boundary. However, one key component has been missing from distributed models to date, namely the effects of debris cover. Many glacier ablation zones are mantled in near-continuous blankets of rock debris, and debris-covered glaciers are important drivers of the water cycle in the European Alps, Andes and Himalayas. Moreover, debris covers have been seen to expand in recent years, so it is essential to assess exactly how the presence of debris may affect a glacier’s surface energy balance and potential responses to climate changes. The effects of a debris cover are complicated by the varying surface roughness, albedo and thermal properties of the debris in question, but generally a debris cover reduces glacier melt rate by insulating the glacier surface from direct solar radiation. Even on glaciers where the debris cover is not continuous, isolated patches of debris caused by rockfalls can affect the glacier evolution by introducing differential ablation across the glacier surface, thus creating ice-cored moraines that may persist after ‘clean’ parts of the glacier have wasted away. This paper presents the results of incorporating a one-dimensional ‘debris energy balance model’ called DEB-Model (Reid and Brock 2010) into a distributed melt model for Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. DEB-Model numerically estimates debris surface temperature by considering the balance of heat fluxes at the air-debris interface, then calculates heat conduction through the debris in order to estimate melt rates at the

  8. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  9. Fractional snow cover mapping from MODIS data using wavelet-artificial intelligence hybrid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, Vahid; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Shirmohammadi, Bagher

    2014-04-01

    This study was carried out to evaluate the wavelet-artificial intelligence hybrid models to produce fractional snow cover maps. At first, cloud cover was removed from MODIS data and cloud free images were produced. SVM-based binary classified ETM+ imagery were then used as reference maps in order to obtain train and test data for sub-pixel classification models. ANN and ANFIS-based modeling were performed using raw data (without wavelet-based preprocessing). In the next step, several mother wavelets and levels were used in order to decompose the original data to obtain wavelet coefficients. Then, the decomposed data were used for further modeling processes. ANN, ANFIS, wavelet-ANN and wavelet-ANFIS models were compared to evaluate the effect of wavelet transformation on the ability of artificial intelligence models. It was demonstrated that wavelet transformation as a preprocessing approach can significantly enhance the performance of ANN and ANFIS models. This study indicated an overall accuracy of 92.45% for wavelet-ANFIS model, 86.13% for wavelet-ANN, 72.23% for ANFIS model and 66.78% for ANN model. In fact, hybrid wavelet-artificial intelligence models can extract the characteristics of the original signals (i.e. model inputs) accurately through decomposing the non-stationary and complex signals into several stationary and simpler signals. The positive effect of fuzzification as well as wavelet transformation in the wavelet-ANFIS model was also confirmed.

  10. Beam-based model of broad-band impedance of the Diamond Light Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaluk, Victor; Martin, Ian; Fielder, Richard; Bartolini, Riccardo

    2015-06-01

    In an electron storage ring, the interaction between a single-bunch beam and a vacuum chamber impedance affects the beam parameters, which can be measured rather precisely. So we can develop beam-based numerical models of longitudinal and transverse impedances. At the Diamond Light Source (DLS) to get the model parameters, a set of measured data has been used including current-dependent shift of betatron tunes and synchronous phase, chromatic damping rates, and bunch lengthening. A matlab code for multiparticle tracking has been developed. The tracking results and analytical estimations are quite consistent with the measured data. Since Diamond has the shortest natural bunch length among all light sources in standard operation, the studies of collective effects with short bunches are relevant to many facilities including next generation of light sources.

  11. Distributed modeling of snow cover mass and energy balance in the Rheraya watershed (High Atlas, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchane, Ahmed; Gascoin, Simon; Jarlan, Lionel; Hanich, Lahoucine

    2016-04-01

    The mountains of the High Moroccan Atlas represent an important source of water for the neighboring arid plains. Despite the importance of snow in the regional water balance, few studies were devoted to the modeling of the snow cover at the watershed scale. This type of modeling is necessary to characterize the contribution of snowmelt to water balance and understanding its sensitivity to natural and human-induced climate fluctuations. In this study, we applied a spatially-distributed model of the snowpack evolution (SnowModel, Liston & Elder 2006) on the Rheraya watershed (225 km²) in the High Atlas in order to simulate the mass and energy balance of the snow cover and the evolution of snow depth over a full season (2008-2009). The model was forced by 6 meteorological stations. The model was evaluated locally at the Oukaimeden meteorological station (3230 m asl) where snow depth is recorded continuously. To evaluate the model at the watershed scale we used the daily MODIS snow cover products and a series of 15 cloud-free optical images acquired by the FORMOSAT-2 satellite at 8-m resolution from February to June 2009. The results showed that the model is able to simulate the snow depth in the Oukaimeden station for the 2008-2009 season, and also to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of of the snow cover area in the watershed Rheraya. Based on the model output we examine the importance of the snow sublimation on the water balance at the watershed scale.

  12. A novel approach to emission modelling of biogenic volatile organic compounds in Europe: improved seasonality and land-cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Oderbolz

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC emitted from vegetation are important for the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA in the atmosphere. Therefore, BVOC emission are an important input for air quality models. To model these emissions with high spatial resolution, the accuracy of the underlying vegetation inventory is crucial. We present a BVOC emission model that accommodates different vegetation inventories and uses satellite-based measurements of greenness instead of pre-defined vegetation periods. This approach to seasonality implicitly treats effects caused by water or nutrient availability, altitude and latitude on a plant stand. Additionally, we test the influence of proposed seasonal variability in enzyme activity on BVOC emissions. In its present setup, the emission model calculates hourly emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and the oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone and acetic acid. In this study, emissions based on three different vegetation inventories are compared with each other and diurnal and seasonal variations in Europe are investigated for the year 2006. Two of these vegetation inventories require information on tree-cover as an input. We compare three different land-cover inventories (USGS GLCC, GLC2000 and Globcover 2.2 with respect to tree-cover. The often-used USGS GLCC land-cover inventory leads to a severe reduction of BVOC emissions due to a potential miss-attribution of broad-leaved trees and reduced tree-cover compared to the two other land-cover inventories. To account for uncertainties in the land-cover classification, we introduce land-cover correction factors for each relevant land-use category to adjust the tree-cover. The results are very sensitive to these factors within the plausible range. For June 2006, total monthly BVOC emissions decreased up to −27% with

  13. Analysis of MODIS snow cover time series over the alpine regions as input for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notarnicola, Claudia; Rastner, Philipp; Irsara, Luca; Moelg, Nico; Bertoldi, Giacomo; Dalla Chiesa, Stefano; Endrizzi, Stefano; Zebisch, Marc

    2010-05-01

    Snow extent and relative physical properties are key parameters in hydrology, weather forecast and hazard warning as well as in climatological models. Satellite sensors offer a unique advantage in monitoring snow cover due to their temporal and spatial synoptic view. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from NASA is especially useful for this purpose due to its high frequency. However, in order to evaluate the role of snow on the water cycle of a catchment such as runoff generation due to snowmelt, remote sensing data need to be assimilated in hydrological models. This study presents a comparison on a multi-temporal basis between snow cover data derived from (1) MODIS images, (2) LANDSAT images, and (3) predictions by the hydrological model GEOtop [1,3]. The test area is located in the catchment of the Matscher Valley (South Tyrol, Northern Italy). The snow cover maps derived from MODIS-images are obtained using a newly developed algorithm taking into account the specific requirements of mountain regions with a focus on the Alps [2]. This algorithm requires the standard MODIS-products MOD09 and MOD02 as input data and generates snow cover maps at a spatial resolution of 250 m. The final output is a combination of MODIS AQUA and MODIS TERRA snow cover maps, thus reducing the presence of cloudy pixels and no-data-values due to topography. By using these maps, daily time series starting from the winter season (November - May) 2002 till 2008/2009 have been created. Along with snow maps from MODIS images, also some snow cover maps derived from LANDSAT images have been used. Due to their high resolution (manto nevoso in aree alpine con dati MODIS multi-temporali e modelli idrologici, 13th ASITA National Conference, 1-4.12.2009, Bari, Italy. [3] Zanotti F., Endrizzi S., Bertoldi G. and Rigon R. 2004. The GEOtop snow module. Hydrological Processes, 18: 3667-3679. DOI:10.1002/hyp.5794.

  14. Impact of Model and Observation Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Kristi R.

    Accurately modeling or observing snow cover fraction (SCF) estimates, which represent fractional snow cover area within a gridcell, can help with better understanding earth system dynamics, improving weather and climate prediction, and providing end-use water solutions. Seeking to obtain more accurate snowpack estimates, high resolution snow cover fraction observations are assimilated with different data assimilation (DA) methods within a land surface model (LSM). The LSM simulates snowpack states, snow water equivalent and snow depth, to obtain improved snowpack estimates known as the analysis. Data assimilation experiments are conducted for two mountainous areas where high spatial snow variability occurs, which can impact realistic snowpack representation for different hydrological and meteorological applications. Consequently, the experiments are conducted at higher model resolutions to better capture this variability. This study focuses on four key aspects of how assimilating SCF observations may improve snowpack estimates and impact the LSM overall. These include investigating the role of data assimilation method complexity, evaluating the impact of model and observational errors on snow state analysis estimates, improving the model's SCF representation for assimilation using observation operators, and examining subsequent model state and flux impacts when SCF observations are assimilated. A simpler direct insertion (DI) and a more complex ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation method were applied. The more complex method proved to be superior to the simpler one; however, this method required accounting for more realistic observational and model errors. Also, the EnKF method required an ensemble of model forecasts, in which bias in the ensemble generation was found and removed. Reducing this bias improved the model snowpack estimates. Detection and geolocation errors in the satellite-based snow cover fraction observations also contributed to degrading

  15. An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carenzo, M; Pellicciotti, F; Mabillard, J; Reid, T; Brock, B W

    2016-08-01

    Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the

  16. An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carenzo, M.; Pellicciotti, F.; Mabillard, J.; Reid, T.; Brock, B. W.

    2016-08-01

    Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the

  17. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risto K Heikkinen

    Full Text Available Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina and one generalist (Issoria lathonia. Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity, with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

  18. Research destruction ice under dynamic loading. Part 1. Modeling explosive ice cover into account the temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogomolov Gennady N.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the research, the behavior of ice under shock and explosive loads is analyzed. Full-scale experiments were carried out. It is established that the results of 2013 practically coincide with the results of 2017, which is explained by the temperature of the formation of river ice. Two research objects are considered, including freshwater ice and river ice cover. The Taylor test was simulated numerically. The results of the Taylor test are presented. Ice is described by an elastoplastic model of continuum mechanics. The process of explosive loading of ice by emulsion explosives is numerically simulated. The destruction of the ice cover under detonation products is analyzed in detail.

  19. Diagnostic Power of Broad Emission Line Profiles in Searches for Binary Supermassive Black Holes: Comparison of Models with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Khai; Bogdanovic, Tamara; Eracleous, Michael; Runnoe, Jessie C.; Sigurdsson, Steinn

    2017-01-01

    Motivated by observational searches for sub-parsec supermassive black hole binaries (SBHBs) we develop a semi-analytic model to describe the spectral emission line signatures of these systems. We are particularly interested in modeling the profiles of the broad emission lines, which have been used as a tool to search for SBHBs. The goal of this work is to test one of the leading models of binary accretion flows in the literature: SBHB in a circumbinary disk. In this context, we model SBHB accretion flows as a set of three accretion disks: two mini-disks that are gravitationally bound to the individual black holes and a circumbinary disk that forms a common envelope about a gravitationally bound binary. Our first generation model shows that emission line profiles tend to have different statistical properties depending on the semi-major axis, mass ratio, eccentricity of the binary, and the alignment of the triple-disk system, and can in principle be used to constrain the statistical distribution of these parameters. We present the results of a second generation model, which improves upon the treatment of radiative transfer by taking into account the effect of line-driven winds on the properties of the model emission line profiles. This improvement allows a preliminary comparison of the model profiles with the observed SBHB candidates and AGN population in general.

  20. A higher order conditional random field model for simultaneous classification of land cover and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Lena; Rottensteiner, Franz; Heipke, Christian

    2017-08-01

    We propose a new approach for the simultaneous classification of land cover and land use considering spatial as well as semantic context. We apply a Conditional Random Fields (CRF) consisting of a land cover and a land use layer. In the land cover layer of the CRF, the nodes represent super-pixels; in the land use layer, the nodes correspond to objects from a geospatial database. Intra-layer edges of the CRF model spatial dependencies between neighbouring image sites. All spatially overlapping sites in both layers are connected by inter-layer edges, which leads to higher order cliques modelling the semantic relation between all land cover and land use sites in the clique. A generic formulation of the higher order potential is proposed. In order to enable efficient inference in the two-layer higher order CRF, we propose an iterative inference procedure in which the two classification tasks mutually influence each other. We integrate contextual relations between land cover and land use in the classification process by using contextual features describing the complex dependencies of all nodes in a higher order clique. These features are incorporated in a discriminative classifier, which approximates the higher order potentials during the inference procedure. The approach is designed for input data based on aerial images. Experiments are carried out on two test sites to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experiments show that the classification results are improved compared to the results of a non-contextual classifier. For land cover classification, the result is much more homogeneous and the delineation of land cover segments is improved. For the land use classification, an improvement is mainly achieved for land use objects showing non-typical characteristics or similarities to other land use classes. Furthermore, we have shown that the size of the super-pixels has an influence on the level of detail of the classification result, but also on the

  1. Modeling the effect of reflective calf hutch covers on reducing heat loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binion, W. R.; Friend, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    This study determined if a reflective film could theoretically be useful in moderating the rate of heat loss from calves housed in polyethylene hutches during cold weather. An engineering approach was used in which rate of heat loss was modeled using 38-l steel drums filled with body temperature water and covered by fresh calf hide. The reflective film (cover) consisted of aluminized 0.0635 mm low-density olive color polyethylene. The non-reflective olive side was sprayed with flat black paint. Covers were 1.8 × 3 m with the aluminized side facing the hutch. Two of four hutches were either uncovered or had covers across the top and sides. During the night, (mean temperature ± SE -13.6 ± 0.29 °C), the rate of temperature loss was -0.21 °C per 5-min interval over 28 temperature readings in the covered and -0.25 °C in the uncovered ( R 2 = 0.99). During the daytime (mean ± SE 14.3 ± 0.52 °C), rate of heat loss was -0.15 °C per 5-min interval over 33 temperature readings in the covered and -0.11 °C in the uncovered ( R 2 = 0.99). Reflective film reduced the rate of heat loss during cold nights, but when the sun was shining on the hutches during midday, the uncovered hutches warmed up more and, hence, reduced the rate of heat loss when compared to the covered. Further research is needed on the orientation of hutches in relationship to the sun and with live calves because calves would be able to move into the sun during cold sunny days.

  2. Multi-epitope Models Explain How Pre-existing Antibodies Affect the Generation of Broadly Protective Responses to Influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika I Zarnitsyna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of next-generation influenza vaccines that elicit strain-transcendent immunity against both seasonal and pandemic viruses is a key public health goal. Targeting the evolutionarily conserved epitopes on the stem of influenza's major surface molecule, hemagglutinin, is an appealing prospect, and novel vaccine formulations show promising results in animal model systems. However, studies in humans indicate that natural infection and vaccination result in limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA, and the level of stem-specific antibody elicited is insufficient to provide broad strain-transcendent immunity. Here, we use mathematical models of the humoral immune response to explore how pre-existing immunity affects the ability of vaccines to boost antibodies to the head and stem of HA in humans, and, in particular, how it leads to the apparent lack of boosting of broadly cross-reactive antibodies to the stem epitopes. We consider hypotheses where binding of antibody to an epitope: (i results in more rapid clearance of the antigen; (ii leads to the formation of antigen-antibody complexes which inhibit B cell activation through Fcγ receptor-mediated mechanism; and (iii masks the epitope and prevents the stimulation and proliferation of specific B cells. We find that only epitope masking but not the former two mechanisms to be key in recapitulating patterns in data. We discuss the ramifications of our findings for the development of vaccines against both seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  3. Content-adaptive pentary steganography using the multivariate generalized Gaussian cover model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedighi, Vahid; Fridrich, Jessica; Cogranne, Rémi

    2015-03-01

    The vast majority of steganographic schemes for digital images stored in the raster format limit the amplitude of embedding changes to the smallest possible value. In this paper, we investigate the possibility to further improve the empirical security by allowing the embedding changes in highly textured areas to have a larger amplitude and thus embedding there a larger payload. Our approach is entirely model driven in the sense that the probabilities with which the cover pixels should be changed by a certain amount are derived from the cover model to minimize the power of an optimal statistical test. The embedding consists of two steps. First, the sender estimates the cover model parameters, the pixel variances, when modeling the pixels as a sequence of independent but not identically distributed generalized Gaussian random variables. Then, the embedding change probabilities for changing each pixel by 1 or 2, which can be transformed to costs for practical embedding using syndrome-trellis codes, are computed by solving a pair of non-linear algebraic equations. Using rich models and selection-channel-aware features, we compare the security of our scheme based on the generalized Gaussian model with pentary versions of two popular embedding algorithms: HILL and S-UNIWARD.

  4. Modelling the water balance of a mesoscale catchment basin using remotely sensed land cover data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montzka, Carsten; Canty, Morton; Kunkel, Ralf; Menz, Gunter; Vereecken, Harry; Wendland, Frank

    2008-05-01

    SummaryHydrological modelling of mesoscale catchments is often adversely affected by a lack of adequate information about specific site conditions. In particular, digital land cover data are available from data sets which were acquired on a European or a national scale. These data sets do not only exhibit a restricted spatial resolution but also a differentiation of crops and impervious areas which is not appropriate to the needs of mesoscale hydrological models. In this paper, the impact of remote sensing data on the reliability of a water balance model is investigated and compared to model results determined on the basis of CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover as a reference. The aim is to quantify the improved model performance achieved by an enhanced land cover representation and corresponding model modifications. Making use of medium resolution satellite imagery from SPOT, LANDSAT ETM+ and ASTER, detailed information on land cover, especially agricultural crops and impervious surfaces, was extracted over a 5-year period (2000-2004). Crop-specific evapotranspiration coefficients were derived by using remote sensing data to replace grass reference evapotranspiration necessitated by the use of CORINE land cover for rural areas. For regions classified as settlement or industrial areas, degrees of imperviousness were derived. The data were incorporated into the hydrological model GROWA (large-scale water balance model), which uses an empirical approach combining distributed meteorological data with distributed site parameters to calculate the annual runoff components. Using satellite imagery in combination with runoff data from gauging stations for the years 2000-2004, the actual evapotranspiration calculation in GROWA was methodologically extended by including empirical crop coefficients for actual evapotranspiration calculations. While GROWA originally treated agricultural areas as homogeneous, now a consideration and differentiation

  5. Land Cover Classification for Polarimetric SAR Images Based on Mixture Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gao

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, two mixture models are proposed for modeling heterogeneous regions in single-look and multi-look polarimetric SAR images, along with their corresponding maximum likelihood classifiers for land cover classification. The classical Gaussian and Wishart models are suitable for modeling scattering vectors and covariance matrices from homogeneous regions, while their performance deteriorates for regions that are heterogeneous. By comparison, the proposed mixture models reduce the modeling error by expressing the data distribution as a weighted sum of multiple component distributions. For single-look and multi-look polarimetric SAR data, complex Gaussian and complex Wishart components are adopted, respectively. Model parameters are determined by employing the expectation-maximization (EM algorithm. Two maximum likelihood classifiers are then constructed based on the proposed mixture models. These classifiers are assessed using polarimetric SAR images from the RADARSAT-2 sensor of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA, the AIRSAR sensor of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL and the EMISAR sensor of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU. Experiment results demonstrate that the new models fit heterogeneous regions preferably to the classical models and are especially appropriate for extremely heterogeneous regions, such as urban areas. The overall accuracy of land cover classification is also improved due to the more refined modeling.

  6. Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trondman, A-K; Gaillard, M-J; Mazier, F; Sugita, S; Fyfe, R; Nielsen, A B; Twiddle, C; Barratt, P; Birks, H J B; Bjune, A E; Björkman, L; Broström, A; Caseldine, C; David, R; Dodson, J; Dörfler, W; Fischer, E; van Geel, B; Giesecke, T; Hultberg, T; Kalnina, L; Kangur, M; van der Knaap, P; Koff, T; Kuneš, P; Lagerås, P; Latałowa, M; Lechterbeck, J; Leroyer, C; Leydet, M; Lindbladh, M; Marquer, L; Mitchell, F J G; Odgaard, B V; Peglar, S M; Persson, T; Poska, A; Rösch, M; Seppä, H; Veski, S; Wick, L

    2015-02-01

    We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene [around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1° × 1° spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types [evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Response of Himalayan debris-covered glaciers to climate warming: from observations to predictive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benn, D.; Lefeuvre, P.; Ng, F.; Nicholson, L. I.

    2012-12-01

    Field observations and remote-sensing studies have shown that Himalayan debris-covered glaciers tend to follow distinctive evolutionary pathways during periods of negative mass balance. Initially, debris-covered glacier tongues downwaste rather than retreat, resulting in thinning and a reduction of ice surface gradient. Reduced driving stresses lead to lower velocities and eventual stagnation of the tongue. These geometrical and dynamic changes reduce the efficiency of the hydrological system, leading to increased retention of meltwater and the formation of ephemeral supraglacial lakes. High ablation rates around lakes and internal ablation in association with englacial conduits serve to accelerate mass loss and downwasting. In some cases, this evolutionary cascade results in the formation of moraine-dammed lakes, which can present significant outburst flood risks if large lake volumes coincide with weak moraine dams . While this evolutionary sequence has been observed on numerous glaciers, numerical prediction of future glacier behavior requires quantification or parameterization of several complex processes. In addition, system behavior is highly non-linear with multiple process thresholds, creating considerable modeling challenges. An essential first step is to develop robust mass-balance models, including patterns of snow accumulation in extreme terrain and the effects of both debris and climate on melting. Accumulation models need to incorporate vertical variations in precipitation as well as redistribution by wind and avalanching. Newly available precipitation estimates from satellite data can provide important model input. Ablation modeling can be done using a range of approaches, including degree-day and full energy balance models. Mass balance gradients calculated using the latter approach indicate ablation maxima some distance above the glacier termini, where debris cover is relatively thin. Mass balance modeling also indicates that in monsoonal regions

  8. Modelling erosion development during wave overtopping of an asphalt road covered dike

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bomers Anouk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wave overtopping initiates erosion of dikes, thereby compromising the safety against flooding. Structures integrated in a grass covered dike may decrease the resistance against erosion. In this study, CFD modelling is used to assess the effect of an asphalt road on top of the dike crest on the initiation of erosion due to wave overtopping. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved via a k-ε turbulence model. Two wave overtopping experiments are used for validating the hydrodynamics and the coupled hydrodynamic-erosion model. The amount of scour caused by overtopping waves is predicted by combining the shear stresses from the CFD model with an erosion model including grass erosion. Both the hydrodynamics and scour depths show good agreement with the measurements. Results show that a dike profile with a road on top of the crest is more vulnerable to erosion development than a bare grass covered dike profile. This is caused by a combination of the smoother asphalt section and the damaged berms at the transitions of the asphalt with the grass cover.

  9. Modelling the variable broad-band optical/UV/X-ray spectrum of PG1211+143: Implications for the ionized outflow

    CERN Document Server

    Papadakis, I E; Panagiotou, C

    2016-01-01

    We present the results from a detailed analysis of the 2007 Swift monitoring campaign of the quasar PG1211+143. We constructed broad-band, optical/UV/X-ray spectral energy distributions over three X-ray flux intervals. We fitted them with a model which accounts for the disc and the X-ray coronal emission and the warm absorber (well established in this source). The three flux spectra are well fitted by the model we considered. The disc inner temperature remains constant at ~2 eV, while X-rays are variable both in spectral slope and normalization. The absorber covers almost 90% of the central source. It is outflowing with a velocity less than 2.3*10^4 km/s (3sigma upper limit), and has a column density of ~10^23.2. Its ionization parameter varies by a factor of 1.6, and it is in photo-ionizing equilibrium with the ionizing flux. It is located at a distance of less than 0.35 pc from the central source and its relative thickness, DR/R is less than 0.1. The absorber' s ionization parameter variations can explain t...

  10. Gas Transport Parameters for Landfill Final Cover Soil: Measurements and Model Modification by Dry Bulk Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramarachchi, P. N.; Kawamoto, K.; Hamamoto, S.; Nagamori, M.; Moldrup, P.; Komatsu, T.

    2011-12-01

    for ka than Dp for both fractions. We suggest this is because of compaction effects caused to create well-aligned macropore networks that are available for gas transport through the porous material. Then, the famous predictive models, the water induced linear reduction (WLR) model for Dp and the reference point law (RPL) model for ka were modified with reference point measurements (dry conditions) and model parameters and they correlated linearly to dry bulk density values for both fractions of landfill final cover soil.

  11. Molecular modeling assisted hapten design to produce broad selectivity antibodies for fluoroquinolone antibiotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinacho, Daniel G; Sánchez-Baeza, Francisco; Marco, M-Pilar

    2012-05-15

    Antibodies with a wide recognition profile of fluoroquinolone antibiotics have been produced based on chemical criteria, theoretical studies, and molecular modeling assisted hapten design. The immunizing hapten preserves the most important and characteristic epitopes of this antibiotic family. The studies have taken into consideration the zwitterionic character of most of the fluoroquinolones and the relative concentration of the different species in equilibrium at physiologic pH. The hapten is prepared in the form of a stable prehapten through a 5 step synthetic pathway. Immediately before conjugation, the immunizing hapten is obtained by removing the diphenylmethane protecting group. The specificity of the antibodies obtained is directed toward the common area defined by the fluorine atom at position 6 and the β-ketoacid moiety. The ELISA developed is able to recognize with very good detectability important fluoroquinolones used in the veterinary field such as ciprofloxacin (CPFX, IC(50), 0.35 μg L(-1)), enrofloxacin (ERFX, IC(50), 0.65 μg L(-1)), danofloxacin (DNFX, IC(50), 7.31 μg L(-1)), difloxacin (DFX, IC(50), 0.91 μg L(-1)), sarafloxacin (SRFX, IC(50), 0.96 μg L(-1)), norfloxacin (NRFX, IC(50), 0.78 μg L(-1)), ofloxacin (OFX, IC(50), 1.84 μg L(-1)), flumequine (Flume, IC(50), 3.91 μ gL(-1)), marbofloxacin (MBFX, IC(50), 4.30 μ gL(-1)), and oxolinic acid (OXO, IC(50), 23.53 μg L(-1)). The results presented here demonstrate that the antibody affinity is strongly affected by the presence of divalent cations, owing to their complexation with the fluoroquinolone molecules. Moreover, the outcome from the effect of the pH on the immunochemical assays suggests that the selectivity could be modulated with the pH due to the zwitterionic character of the fluoroquinolones and as a function of their different pK(a) values.

  12. NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE SNOW INDEX SIMULATION FOR SNOW-COVER MAPPING IN FOREST BY GEOSAIL MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Yun-gang; LIU Chuang

    2006-01-01

    The snow-cover mapping in forest area is always one of the difficult points for optical satellite remote sensing. To investigate reflectance variability and to improve the mapping of snow in forest area, GeoSail model was used to simulate the reflectance of a snow-covered forest. Using this model, the effects of varying canopy density, solar illumination and view geometry on the performance of the MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)snow-cover mapping algorithm were investigated. The relationship between NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and snow fraction was discussed in detail. Results indicated that the weak performance would be achieved if fixed criteria were used for different regions especially in the complicated land cover components. Finally, some suggestions to MODIS SNOWMAP algorithm were put forward to improve snow mapping precision in forest area based on the simulation, for example, new criteria should be used in coniferous forest, that is, NDSI greater than 0.3 and NDVI greater than zero. Otherwise, a threshold on view zenith angle may be used in the criteria such as 45°.

  13. Impact of land cover characterization on regional climate modeling over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Pal, Jeremy S.; Wang, Guiling L.; Lawrence, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998-2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.

  14. Modeling vulnerability to thermokarst disturbance and its consequences on regional land cover dynamic in boreal Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genet, H.; Lara, M. J.; Bolton, W. R.; McGuire, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    Estimation of the magnitude and consequences of permafrost degradation in high latitude is one of the most urgent research challenges related to contemporary and future climate change. In addition to widespread vertical degradation, ice-rich permafrost can thaw laterally, often triggering abrupt subsidence of the ground surface called thermokart. In this depression, permafrost plateau vegetation will transition to wetlands or lakes, while surface water of the surrounding landscape may drain towards it. These abrupt changes in land cover and hydrology can have dramatic consequences from wildlife habitat and biogeochemical cycles. Although recent studies have documented an acceleration of the rates of thermokarst formation in boreal and arctic peatlands, the importance of thermokarst at the regional level is still poorly understood. To better understand the vulnerability of the landscape to thermokarst disturbance in Alaska, we developed the Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM), a state-and-transition model designed to simulate land cover change associated with thermokarst disturbance. In boreal regions, the model simulates transitions from permafrost plateau forest to thermokarst lake, bog or fen, as a function of climate and fire dynamics, permafrost characteristics and physiographic information. This model is designed and parameterized based on existing literature and a new repeated imagery analysis we conducted in a major wetland complex in boreal Alaska. We will present simulation and validation of thermokarst dynamic and associated land cover change in two wetland complexes in boreal Alaska, from 2000 to 2100 for six climate scenarios associating three AR5 emission scenarios and two global circulation model simulations. By 2100, ATM is predicting decrease between 3.5 and 9.1 % in the extent of permafrost plateau forest, mostly to the benefit of thermokarst fen, and lake. This analysis allowed us to assess the importance of thermokarst dynamics and landscape evolution

  15. Modeling and imaging land-cover influences on air temperature in and near Baltimore, MD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisler, Gordon M.; Ellis, Alexis; Nowak, David J.; Yesilonis, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Over the course of 1681 hours between May 5 and September 30, 2006, air temperatures measured at the 1.5-m height at seven sites in and near the city of Baltimore, MD were used to empirically model Δ widehat{T} R-p , the difference in air temperature between a site in downtown Baltimore and the six other sites. Variables in the prediction equation included difference between the downtown reference and each of the other sites in upwind tree cover and impervious cover as obtained from 10-m resolution geographic information system (GIS) data. Other predictor variables included an index of atmospheric stability, topographic indices, wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, and antecedent precipitation. The model was used to map predicted hourly Δ widehat{T} R-p across the Baltimore region based on hourly weather data from the airport. Despite the numerous sources of variability in the regression modeling, the method produced reasonable map patterns of Δ widehat{T} R-p that, except for some areas evidently affected by sea breeze from the Chesapeake, closely matched results of mesoscale modeling. Potential applications include predictions of the effect of changing tree cover on air temperature in the area.

  16. Sensitivity Study of Cloud Cover and Ozone Modeling to Microphysics Parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wałaszek, Kinga; Kryza, Maciej; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Werner, Małgorzata; Ojrzyńska, Hanna

    2017-02-01

    Cloud cover is a significant meteorological parameter influencing the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground surface, and therefore affecting the formation of photochemical pollutants, most of all tropospheric ozone (O3). Because cloud amount and type in meteorological models are resolved by microphysics schemes, adjusting this parameterization is a major factor determining the accuracy of the results. However, verification of cloud cover simulations based on surface data is difficult and yields significant errors. Current meteorological satellite programs provide many high-resolution cloud products, which can be used to verify numerical models. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been applied for the area of Poland for an episode of June 17th-July 4th, 2008, when high ground-level ozone concentrations were observed. Four simulations were performed, each with a different microphysics parameterization: Purdue Lin, Eta Ferrier, WRF Single-Moment 6-class, and Morrison Double-Moment scheme. The results were then evaluated based on cloud mask satellite images derived from SEVIRI data. Meteorological variables and O3 concentrations were also evaluated. The results show that the simulation using Morrison Double-Moment microphysics provides the most and Purdue Lin the least accurate information on cloud cover and surface meteorological variables for the selected high ozone episode. Those two configurations were used for WRF-Chem runs, which showed significantly higher O3 concentrations and better model-measurements agreement of the latter.

  17. Counting Tensor Model Observables and Branched Covers of the 2-Sphere

    CERN Document Server

    Geloun, Joseph Ben

    2013-01-01

    Lattice gauge theories of permutation groups with a simple topological action (henceforth permutation-TFTs) have recently found several applications in the combinatorics of quantum field theories (QFTs). They have been used to solve counting problems of Feynman graphs in QFTs and ribbon graphs of large $N$, often revealing inter-relations between different counting problems. In another recent development, tensor theories generalizing matrix theories have been actively developed as models of random geometry in three or more dimensions. Here, we apply permutation-TFT methods to count gauge invariants for tensor models (colored as well as non-colored), exhibiting a relationship with counting problems of branched covers of the 2-sphere, where the rank $d$ of the tensor gets related to a number of branch points. We give explicit generating functions for the relevant counting and describe algorithms for the enumeration of the invariants. As well as the classic count of Hurwitz equivalence classes of branched covers...

  18. Potential solar radiation and land cover contributions to digital climate surface modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Pol; Batalla, Meritxell; Pesquer, Lluís; Ninyerola, Miquel

    2016-04-01

    Overview: We have designed a series of ad-hoc experiments to study the role of factors that a priori have a strong weight in developing digital models of temperature and precipitation, such as solar radiation and land cover. Empirical test beds have been designed to improve climate (mean air temperature and total precipitation) digital models using statistical general techniques (multiple regression) with residual correction (interpolated with inverse weighting distance). Aim: Understand what roles these two factors (solar radiation and land cover) play to incorporate them into the process of generating mapping of temperature and rainfall. Study area: The Iberian Peninsula and supported in this, Catalonia and the Catalan Pyrenees. Data: The dependent variables used in all experiments relate to data from meteorological stations precipitation (PL), mean temperature (MT), average temperature minimum (MN) and maximum average temperature (MX). These data were obtained monthly from the AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología). Data series of stations covers the period between 1950 to 2010. Methodology: The idea is to design ad hoc, based on a sample of more equitable space statistician, to detect the role of radiation. Based on the influence of solar radiation on the temperature of the air from a quantitative point of view, the difficulty in answering this lies in the fact that there are lots of weather stations located in areas where solar radiation is similar. This suggests that the role of the radiation variable remains "off" when, instead, we intuitively think that would strongly influence the temperature. We have developed a multiple regression analysis between these meteorological variables as the dependent ones (Temperature and rainfall), and some geographical variables: altitude (ALT), latitude (LAT), continentality (CON) and solar radiation (RAD) as the independent ones. In case of the experiment with land covers, we have used the NDVI index as a proxy of land

  19. Investigating the spread in surface albedo for snow-covered forests in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Libo; Cole, Jason N. S.; Bartlett, Paul; Verseghy, Diana; Derksen, Chris; Brown, Ross; Salzen, Knut

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the role of leaf/plant area index (LAI/PAI) specification on the large spread of winter albedo simulated by climate models. To examine the sensitivity of winter albedo to LAI, we perform a sensitivity analysis using two methods commonly used to compute albedo in snow-covered forests as well as diagnostic calculations within version 4.2 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model for which PAI is systematically varied. The results show that the simulated albedo is very sensitive to negative PAI biases, especially for smaller PAI values. The LAI and surface albedo of boreal forests in the presence of snow simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite observations. The evaluation of CMIP5 models suggest that inaccurate tree cover fraction due to improper plant functional type specification or erroneous LAI parameterization in some models explains, in part, an observed positive bias in winter albedo over boreal forest regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This contributes to a large intermodel spread in simulated surface albedo in the presence of snow over these regions and is largely responsible for uncertainties in simulated snow-albedo feedback strength. Errors are largest (+20-40%) in models with large underestimation of LAI but are typically within ±15% when simulated LAI is within the observed range. This study underscores the importance of accurate representation of vegetation distribution and parameters in realistic simulation of surface albedo.

  20. Investigating the spread of surface albedo in snow covered forests in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Libo; Cole, Jason; Bartlett, Paul; Verseghy, Diana; Derksen, Chris; Brown, Ross; von Salzen, Knut

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the role of leaf/plant area index (LAI/PAI) specification on the large spread of winter albedo simulated by climate models. To examine the sensitivity of winter albedo to LAI, we perform a sensitivity analysis using two methods commonly used to compute albedo in snow-covered forests as well as diagnostic calculations within version 4.2 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model for which PAI is systematically varied. The results show that the simulated albedo is very sensitive to negative PAI biases, especially for smaller PAI values. The LAI and surface albedo of boreal forests in the presence of snow simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite observations. The evaluation of CMIP5 models suggest that inaccurate tree cover fraction due to improper plant functional type specification or erroneous LAI parameterization in some models explains, in part, an observed positive bias in winter albedo over boreal forest regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This contributes to a large intermodel spread in simulated surface albedo in the presence of snow over these regions and is largely responsible for uncertainties in simulated snow-albedo feedback strength. Errors are largest (+20-40 %) in models with large underestimation of LAI but are typically within ±15% when simulated LAI is within the observed range. This study underscores the importance of accurate representation of vegetation distribution and parameters in realistic simulation of surface albedo.

  1. Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.

    2014-11-01

    This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

  2. The importance of land cover change across urban-rural typologies for climate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Jason; Habeeb, Dana; Stone, Brian

    2013-01-15

    Land cover changes affect local surface energy balances by changing the amount of solar energy reflected, the magnitude and duration over which absorbed energy is released as heat, and the amount of energy that is diverted to non-heating fluxes through evaporation. However, such local influences often are only crudely included in climate modeling exercises, if at all. A better understanding of local land conversion dynamics can serve to inform inputs for climate models and increase the role for land use planning in climate management policy. Here we present a new approach for projecting and incorporating metropolitan land cover change into mesoscale climate and other environmental assessment models. Our results demonstrate the relative contributions of different land development patterns to land cover change and conversion and suggest that regional growth management strategies serving to increase settlement densities over time can have a significant influence on the rate of deforestation per unit of population growth. Employing the approach presented herein, the impacts of land conversion on climate change and on parallel environmental systems and services, such as ground water recharge, habitat provision, and food production, may all be investigated more closely and managed through land use planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Spatial sensitivity analysis of remote sensing snow cover fraction data in a distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezowski, Tomasz; Chormański, Jarosław; Nossent, Jiri; Batelaan, Okke

    2014-05-01

    Distributed hydrological models enhance the analysis and explanation of environmental processes. As more spatial input data and time series become available, more analysis is required of the sensitivity of the data on the simulations. Most research so far focussed on the sensitivity of precipitation data in distributed hydrological models. However, these results can not be compared until a universal approach to quantify the sensitivity of a model to spatial data is available. The frequently tested and used remote sensing data for distributed models is snow cover. Snow cover fraction (SCF) remote sensing products are easily available from the internet, e.g. MODIS snow cover product MOD10A1 (daily snow cover fraction at 500m spatial resolution). In this work a spatial sensitivity analysis (SA) of remotely sensed SCF from MOD10A1 was conducted with the distributed WetSpa model. The aim is to investigate if the WetSpa model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different areas of the model domain. The analysis was extended to look not only at SA quantities but also to relate them to the physical parameters and processes in the study area. The study area is the Biebrza River catchment, Poland, which is considered semi natural catchment and subject to a spring snow melt regime. Hydrological simulations are performed with the distributed WetSpa model, with a simulation period of 2 hydrological years. For the SA the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) algorithm is used, with a set of different response functions in regular 4 x 4 km grid. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different landscape features. Moreover, the spatial patterns of the SA results are related to the WetSpa spatial parameters and to different physical processes. Based on the study results, it is clear that spatial approach of SA can be performed with the proposed algorithm and the MOD10A1 SCF is spatially sensitive in

  4. Evaluating the potential of MSG-SEVIRI snow cover images for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surer, S.; Parajka, J.; Akyurek, Z.; Bloeschl, G.

    2012-12-01

    Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on board of MSG (METEOSAT Second Generation) geostationary satellite enables snow cover monitoring at very high temporal resolution (15 min). It is a key component of the recent EUMETSAT programme for Satellite Application Facility on Support to operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) project. The main aim of the project is to develop and test new satellite products, which will comply the requirements for operational hydrology and water resources management. The objective of this study is (a) to compare snow cover product (H10) derived from MSG-SEVIRI with MODIS (MOD10A1) snow cover product, (b) to examine the MSG-SEVIRI snow mapping accuracy against in situ snow observations, (c) to test potential of H10 snow cover products for calibration and validation of a conceptual hydrologic model. We compare MSG-SEVIRI, MODIS grid maps and daily snow depth measurements at 272 climate stations over Austria in the period from October 2007 to June 2012. The results indicate that temporal merging of 15 minutes MSG-SEVIRI observations allows a reduction of cloud coverage at daily time scale. The relative number of days with cloud coverage in winter season is on average 35% for MSG-SEVIRI, compared to 65% for MODIS dataset. The coarser spatial resolution of MSG-SEVIRI, namely 0.05o, however, resulted in lower mapping accuracy. The overall snow cover mapping error is 5% for MODIS and 15% for MSG-SEVIRI, respectively. Our results showed that for MSG-SEVIRI dataset the underestimation errors dominate and tend to increase with increasing altitude of climate stations. Our results showed that for MSG-SEVIRI dataset the underestimation errors dominated. The potential of MSG-SEVIRI product (H10) for hydrological modeling is examined in two mountain catchments in Austria and Turkey. We will evaluate the potential of snow cover data from the MSG-SEVIRI for calibrating and validating a conceptual semi

  5. Sensitivity of snow cover to horizontal resolution in a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutra, E.; Kotlarski, S.; Viterbo, P.; Balsamo, G.; Miranda, P. M. A.; Schär, C.

    2010-09-01

    Snow cover is a highly variable land surface condition that exerts a strong control on the heat and moisture budget of the overlying atmosphere. Modeling studies based on long integrations of global circulation models (GCM) are normally carried out at very low resolution (typically coarser than 100 km) due to their high computational demand. On local scales, snow cover plays an important socioeconomic role, ranging from water management applications to outdoor recreation. These latter applications vary in horizontal resolution from a few hundred meters to a few kilometers, where small scale topography, land cover and local circulation effects play a significant role. In this study our focus will be on horizontal scales ranging from typical GCM global climate modeling to high resolution global weather forecasts. In the land surface component of a GCM (land surface model - LSM), snow cover temporal and spatial variability is mainly determined by the overlying atmospheric conditions. However, once snowfall settles on the ground, the sub-grid scale variability associated with complex terrain and land cover variability (not resolved at the model resolution) is parameterized following simple physical and/or empirical relations. The present study intends to access the impact of horizontal resolution in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model (HTESSEL). HTESSEL is forced by the ECMWF operational weather forecasts since March 2006 to December 2009 (runs in offline/stand-alone mode). The control run is carried out at the horizontal resolution of the forecasts at TL799 (gaussian reduced grid N400 -about 25 km). Two lower horizontal resolutions are then tested: TL255 (gaussian reduced grid - about 80 km, same as the ERA-Interim reanalysis), and TL95 (gaussian reduced grid N48 - about 200 km). The length of the simulations is rather small (only 46 months), however global meteorological forcing at 25 km can only be accessed through the

  6. Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Greco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A one-dimensional hydrological model of a slope covered with pyroclastic materials is proposed. The soil cover is constituted by layers of loose volcanic ashes and pumices, with a total thickness between 1.8 m and 2.5 m, lying upon a fractured limestone bedrock. The mean inclination of the slope is around 40°, slightly larger than the friction angle of the ashes. Thus, the equilibrium of the slope, significantly affected by the cohesive contribution exerted by soil suction in unsaturated conditions, may be altered by rainfall infiltration. The model assumes a single homogeneous soil layer occupying the entire depth of the cover, and takes into account seasonally variable canopy interception of precipitation and root water uptake by vegetation, mainly constituted by deciduous chestnut woods with a dense underbrush growing during late spring and summer. The bottom boundary condition links water potential at the soil–bedrock interface with the fluctuations of the water table of the aquifer located in the fractured limestone, which is conceptually modelled as a linear reservoir. Most of the model parameters have been assigned according to literature indications or from experimental data. Soil suction and water content data measured between 1 January 2011 and 20 July 2011 at a monitoring station installed along the slope allowed the remaining parameters to be identified. The calibrated model, which reproduced very closely the data of the calibration set, has been applied to the simulation of the hydrological response of the slope to the hourly precipitation record of 1999, when a large flow-like landslide was triggered close to the monitored location. The simulation results show that the lowest soil suction ever attained occurred just at the time the landslide was triggered, indicating that the model is capable of predicting slope failure conditions.

  7. Assessment of cloud cover in climate models and reanalysis databases with ISCCP over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez, Aaron; Calbo, Josep; Gonzalez, Josep-Abel

    2013-04-01

    Clouds are an important regulator of climate due to their influence on the water balance of the atmosphere and their interaction with solar and infrared radiation. At any time, clouds cover a great percentage of the Earth's surface but their distribution is very irregular along time and space, which makes the evaluation of their influence on climate a difficult task. At present there are few studies related to cloud cover comparing current climate models with observational data. In this study, the database of monthly cloud cover provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) has been chosen as a reference against which we compare the output of CMIP5 climate models and reanalysis databases, on the domain South-Europe-Mediterranean (SEM) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1]. The study covers the period between 1984 and 2009, and the performance of cloud cover estimations for seasons has also been studied. To quantify the agreement between the databases we use two types of statistics: bias and SkillScore, which is based on the probability density functions (PDFs) of the databases [2]. We also use Taylor diagrams to visualize the statistics. Results indicate that there are areas where the models accurately describe what it is observed by ISCCP, for some periods of the year (e.g. Northern Africa, for autumn), compared to other areas and periods for which the agreement is lower (Iberian Peninsula in winter and the Black Sea for the summer months). However these differences should be attributed not only to the limitations of climate models, but possibly also to the data provided by ISCCP. References [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis. [2] Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Int J Climatol 28

  8. Partial covering of a circle by equal circles. Part I: The mechanical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsolt Gáspár

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available How must n equal circles of given radius be placed so that they cover as great a part of the area of the unit circle as possible? To analyse this mathematical problem, mechanical models are introduced. A generalized tensegrity structure is associated with a maximum area configuration of the n circles, whose equilibrium configuration is determined numerically with the method of dynamic relaxation, and the stability of equilibrium is investigated by means of the stiffness matrix of the tensegrity structure. In this Part I, the principles of the models are presented, while an application will be shown in the forthcoming Part II.

  9. Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model

    OpenAIRE

    J. Marotzke; Botzet, M.

    2007-01-01

    We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current climate and a completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 level. We employ the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 in the atmosphere and 1.5 degrees in the ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes a transition from realistic present-day climate to a completely ice-c...

  10. Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Huntingford

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A global carbon cycle is introduced into a zonally averaged energy balance climate model. The physical model components are similar to those of Budyko (1969 and Sellers (1969. The new carbon components account for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the terrestrial and oceanic storage of carbon. Prescribing values for the sum of these carbon components, it is found that inclusion of a closed carbon cycle reduces the range of insolation over which stable partial ice cover solutions may occur. This highly simplified climate model also predicts that the estimated release of carbon from fossil fuel burning over the next hundred years could result in the eventual melting of the ice sheets. Keywords: climate, carbon cycle,zonal model, earth system modelling

  11. Failed Radiatively Accelerated Dusty Outflow Model of the Broad Line Region in Active Galactic Nuclei. I. Analytical Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerny, B.; Li, Yan-Rong; Hryniewicz, K.; Panda, S.; Wildy, C.; Sniegowska, M.; Wang, J.-M.; Sredzinska, J.; Karas, V.

    2017-09-01

    The physical origin of the broad line region in active galactic nuclei is still unclear despite many years of observational studies. The reason is that the region is unresolved, and the reverberation mapping results imply a complex velocity field. We adopt a theory-motivated approach to identify the principal mechanism responsible for this complex phenomenon. We consider the possibility that the role of dust is essential. We assume that the local radiation pressure acting on the dust in the accretion disk atmosphere launches the outflow of material, but higher above the disk the irradiation from the central parts causes dust evaporation and a subsequent fallback. This failed radiatively accelerated dusty outflow is expected to represent the material forming low ionization lines. In this paper we formulate simple analytical equations to describe the cloud motion, including the evaporation phase. The model is fully described just by the basic parameters of black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin, and viewing angle. We study how the spectral line generic profiles correspond to this dynamic. We show that the virial factor calculated from our model strongly depends on the black hole mass in the case of enhanced dust opacity, and thus it then correlates with the line width. This could explain why the virial factor measured in galaxies with pseudobulges differs from that obtained from objects with classical bulges, although the trend predicted by the current version of the model is opposite to the observed trend.

  12. Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

  13. Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Botzet, Michael

    2007-08-01

    We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current climate and a completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 level. We employ the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 in the atmosphere and 1.5 degrees in the ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes a transition from realistic present-day climate to a completely ice-covered state within 15 years; this state persists even when TSI re-assumes today's value. A break-up of the complete ice cover occurs with today's TSI and 100 times - but not with 10 times - today's atmospheric CO2 level. While TSI is near-zero, extremely strong meridional overturning ensues in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Our results imply that a snowball Earth is possible, in principle, with inception possibly triggered by a brief dark spell.

  14. SYBR Green实时荧光PCR方法检测广谱人乳头瘤病毒的方法建立%Establishment of SYBR Green Real-time Fluorescence PCR Assay covering a broad range of Human Papillomavirus Genotypes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐平; 章晓鹰; 张慧敏

    2011-01-01

    Objective To establish a novel Real-time fluorescence PCR assay for simultaneous detection of a broad range of HPV. Genotypes. Methods Instead of universal specific PCR primers and specific probe,degenerate PCR primers and SYBR Green stain were used in novel Real-time fluorescence PCR assay,positive rates were compared with the kits(13 high-risk and 6 low-risk)used in clinical diagnosis,meanwhile,detected rate were compared between SYBR Green Real-time Fluorescence PCR and degenerate PCR. Results Detected rate of SYBR Green Real-time fluorescence PCR was 69 percent among the 100 positive case from cervical swab samples detected by the kits,but the kits showed negative results for 40 positive case of cutaneous warts detected by methods of SYBR Green Real-time Fluorescence PCR. Positive rates of SYBR Green Real-time Fluorescence PCR for 90 cervical type and 60 cutaneous type consist with degenerate PCR(Kappa=0. 907). Conclusion Compared with the kits used in clinical, SYBR Green Real-time Fluorescence PCR covered a wide types of HPV genotypes including cutaneous types and cervical types. It also has high efficiency,quick and simple features than degenerate PCR. However,it is satisfactory for clinical and research.%目的 建立实时荧光PCR方法以检测广谱人乳头瘤病毒.方法 该实时荧光PCR方法利用了degenerate PCR引物与非特异性的SYBR Green染料替代通常使用的PCR特异性引物与探针,并与市售高危13型、低危6型试剂盒以及degenerate PCR方法进行比较.结果 对于用高危13型试剂盒及低危6型试剂盒检测的100例黏膜型人乳头瘤病毒阳性标本,用SYBR Green实时荧光PCR方法检出的阳性数为69例,敏感性为69%,相反,用SYBR Green实时荧光PCR方法检测出的40例皮肤型人乳头瘤病毒阳性标本,用高危13型试剂盒以及低危6型试剂盒检测均为阴性;对于用SYBR Green实时荧光PCR方法及degenerate PCR方法检测的90例黏膜型、60例皮肤型标本,其

  15. Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Quenzer, Robert; Friesz, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

  16. Modeling neutralization kinetics of HIV by broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in genital secretions coating the cervicovaginal mucosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott A McKinley

    Full Text Available Eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAb in cervicovaginal mucus (CVM represents a promising "first line of defense" strategy to reduce vaginal HIV transmission. However, it remains unclear what levels of bnAb must be present in CVM to effectively reduce infection. We approached this complex question by modeling the dynamic tally of bnAb coverage on HIV. This analysis introduces a critical, timescale-dependent competition: to protect, bnAb must accumulate at sufficient stoichiometry to neutralize HIV faster than virions penetrate CVM and reach target cells. We developed a model that incorporates concentrations and diffusivities of HIV and bnAb in semen and CVM, kinetic rates for binding (kon and unbinding (koff of select bnAb, and physiologically relevant thicknesses of CVM and semen layers. Comprehensive model simulations lead to robust conclusions about neutralization kinetics in CVM. First, due to the limited time virions in semen need to penetrate CVM, substantially greater bnAb concentrations than in vitro estimates must be present in CVM to neutralize HIV. Second, the model predicts that bnAb with more rapid kon, almost independent of koff, should offer greater neutralization potency in vivo. These findings suggest the fastest arriving virions at target cells present the greatest likelihood of infection. It also implies the marked improvements in in vitro neutralization potency of many recently discovered bnAb may not translate to comparable reduction in the bnAb dose needed to confer protection against initial vaginal infections. Our modeling framework offers a valuable tool to gaining quantitative insights into the dynamics of mucosal immunity against HIV and other infectious diseases.

  17. Fractional vegetation cover estimation based on an improved selective endmember spectral mixture model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    Full Text Available Vegetation is an important part of ecosystem and estimation of fractional vegetation cover is of significant meaning to monitoring of vegetation growth in a certain region. With Landsat TM images and HJ-1B images as data source, an improved selective endmember linear spectral mixture model (SELSMM was put forward in this research to estimate the fractional vegetation cover in Huangfuchuan watershed in China. We compared the result with the vegetation coverage estimated with linear spectral mixture model (LSMM and conducted accuracy test on the two results with field survey data to study the effectiveness of different models in estimation of vegetation coverage. Results indicated that: (1 the RMSE of the estimation result of SELSMM based on TM images is the lowest, which is 0.044. The RMSEs of the estimation results of LSMM based on TM images, SELSMM based on HJ-1B images and LSMM based on HJ-1B images are respectively 0.052, 0.077 and 0.082, which are all higher than that of SELSMM based on TM images; (2 the R2 of SELSMM based on TM images, LSMM based on TM images, SELSMM based on HJ-1B images and LSMM based on HJ-1B images are respectively 0.668, 0.531, 0.342 and 0.336. Among these models, SELSMM based on TM images has the highest estimation accuracy and also the highest correlation with measured vegetation coverage. Of the two methods tested, SELSMM is superior to LSMM in estimation of vegetation coverage and it is also better at unmixing mixed pixels of TM images than pixels of HJ-1B images. So, the SELSMM based on TM images is comparatively accurate and reliable in the research of regional fractional vegetation cover estimation.

  18. Fractional vegetation cover estimation based on an improved selective endmember spectral mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Wang, Hong; Li, Xiao Bing

    2015-01-01

    Vegetation is an important part of ecosystem and estimation of fractional vegetation cover is of significant meaning to monitoring of vegetation growth in a certain region. With Landsat TM images and HJ-1B images as data source, an improved selective endmember linear spectral mixture model (SELSMM) was put forward in this research to estimate the fractional vegetation cover in Huangfuchuan watershed in China. We compared the result with the vegetation coverage estimated with linear spectral mixture model (LSMM) and conducted accuracy test on the two results with field survey data to study the effectiveness of different models in estimation of vegetation coverage. Results indicated that: (1) the RMSE of the estimation result of SELSMM based on TM images is the lowest, which is 0.044. The RMSEs of the estimation results of LSMM based on TM images, SELSMM based on HJ-1B images and LSMM based on HJ-1B images are respectively 0.052, 0.077 and 0.082, which are all higher than that of SELSMM based on TM images; (2) the R2 of SELSMM based on TM images, LSMM based on TM images, SELSMM based on HJ-1B images and LSMM based on HJ-1B images are respectively 0.668, 0.531, 0.342 and 0.336. Among these models, SELSMM based on TM images has the highest estimation accuracy and also the highest correlation with measured vegetation coverage. Of the two methods tested, SELSMM is superior to LSMM in estimation of vegetation coverage and it is also better at unmixing mixed pixels of TM images than pixels of HJ-1B images. So, the SELSMM based on TM images is comparatively accurate and reliable in the research of regional fractional vegetation cover estimation.

  19. Constraining the Absolute Orientation of Eta Carinae's Binary Orbit: A 3-D Dynamical Model for the Broad [Fe III] Emission

    CERN Document Server

    Madura, Thomas I; Owocki, Stanley P; Groh, Jose H; Okazaki, Atsuo T; Russell, Christopher M P

    2011-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission observed in Eta Carinae using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS). This model is based on full 3-D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of Eta Car's binary colliding winds. Radiative transfer codes are used to generate synthetic spectro-images of [Fe III] emission line structures at various observed orbital phases and STIS slit position angles (PAs). Through a parameter study that varies the orbital inclination i, the PA {\\theta} that the orbital plane projection of the line-of-sight makes with the apastron side of the semi-major axis, and the PA on the sky of the orbital axis, we are able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the absolute 3-D orientation of the binary orbit. To simultaneously reproduce the blue-shifted emission arcs observed at orbital phase 0.976, STIS slit PA = +38 degrees, and the temporal variations in emission seen at negative slit PAs, the binary ...

  20. Comparison of deep percolation rates below contrasting land covers with a joint canopy and soil model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez, C. G.; Pryet, A.; García Vera, M.; Gonzalez, A.; Chaumont, C.; Tournebize, J.; Villacis, M.; d'Ozouville, N.; Violette, S.

    2016-01-01

    A Rutter-type canopy interception model is combined with a 1-D physically-based soil water flow model to compare deep percolation rates below distinct land covers. The joint model allows the quantification of both evaporation and transpiration rates as well as deep percolation from vegetation and soil characteristics. Experimental observations are required to constitute the input and calibration datasets. An appropriate monitoring design is described which consists in meteorological monitoring together with throughfall and soil water tension measurements. The methodology is illustrated in Santa Cruz Island in the Galapagos Archipelago, which has been affected by significant land use changes. Two adjacent study plots are investigated: a secondary forest and a pasture. The results of the model reveal that evaporation of canopy interception is higher in the pasture due to the bigger canopy storage capacity, which promotes evaporation against canopy drainage. This is however compensated by higher transpiration in the secondary forest, due to the smaller surface resistance. As a consequence, total evapotranspiration is similar for the two plots and no marked difference in deep percolation can be observed. In both cases, deep percolation reaches ca. 2 m/year which corresponds to 80% of the incoming rainfall. This methodology not only allows the quantification of deep percolation, but can also be used to identify the controlling factors of deep percolation under contrasting land covers.

  1. Improving Students' Understanding of Molecular Structure through Broad-Based Use of Computer Models in the Undergraduate Organic Chemistry Lecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Michael T.

    2014-01-01

    Several articles suggest how to incorporate computer models into the organic chemistry laboratory, but relatively few papers discuss how to incorporate these models broadly into the organic chemistry lecture. Previous research has suggested that "manipulating" physical or computer models enhances student understanding; this study…

  2. Improving Students' Understanding of Molecular Structure through Broad-Based Use of Computer Models in the Undergraduate Organic Chemistry Lecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Michael T.

    2014-01-01

    Several articles suggest how to incorporate computer models into the organic chemistry laboratory, but relatively few papers discuss how to incorporate these models broadly into the organic chemistry lecture. Previous research has suggested that "manipulating" physical or computer models enhances student understanding; this study…

  3. Dynamic-stochastic modeling of snow cover formation on the European territory of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Gelfan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic-stochastic model, which combines a deterministic model of snow cover formation with a stochastic weather generator, has been developed. The deterministic snow model describes temporal change of the snow depth, content of ice and liquid water, snow density, snowmelt, sublimation, re-freezing of melt water, and snow metamorphism. The model has been calibrated and validated against the long-term data of snow measurements over the territory of the European Russia. The model showed good performance in simulating time series of the snow water equivalent and snow depth. The developed weather generator (NEsted Weather Generator, NewGen includes nested generators of annual, monthly and daily time series of weather variables (namely, precipitation, air temperature, and air humidity. The parameters of the NewGen have been adjusted through calibration against the long-term meteorological data in the European Russia. A disaggregation procedure has been proposed for transforming parameters of the annual weather generator into the parameters of the monthly one and, subsequently, into the parameters of the daily generator. Multi-year time series of the simulated daily weather variables have been used as an input to the snow model. Probability properties of the snow cover, such as snow water equivalent and snow depth for return periods of 25 and 100 years, have been estimated against the observed data, showing good correlation coefficients. The described model has been applied to different landscapes of European Russia, from steppe to taiga regions, to show the robustness of the proposed technique.

  4. Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazey, Benjamin Andrew

    The role of snow cover in controlling Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness and extent is assessed with a series of models. Investigations with the stand alone Community Ice CodE (CICE) show, first, a reduction in snow depth triggers a decrease in ice volume and area, and, second, that the impact of increased snow is heavily dependent on ice and atmospheric conditions. Hindcast snow depths on the Arctic ice, simulated by the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM) are validated with 20th century in situ snow depth measurements. The snow depths in CCSM are found to be deeper than observed, likely due to excessive precipitation produced by the component atmosphere model. The sensitivity of the ice to the thermal barrier imposed by the biased snow depth is assessed. The removal of the thermodynamic impact of the exaggerated snow depth increases ice area and volume. The initial increases in ice due to enhanced conductive flux triggers feedback mechanisms with the atmosphere and ocean, reinforcing the increase in ice. Finally, the 21st century projections of decreased Arctic Ocean snow depth in CCSM are reported and diagnosed. The changes in snow are dominated by reduced accumulation due to the lack of autumn ice cover. Without this platform, much of the early snowfall is lost directly to the ocean. While this decrease in snow results in enhanced conductive flux through the ice as in the validation sensitivity experiment, the decreased summer albedo is found to dominate, as in the CICE stand alone sensitivity experiment. As such, the decrease in snow projected by CCSM in the 21st century presents a mechanism to continued ice loss. These negative (ice growth due decreased insulation) and positive (ice melt due to decreased albedo) feedback mechanisms highlight the need for an accurate representation snow cover on the ice in order to accurately simulate the evolution of Arctic Ocean sea ice.

  5. Pragmatics Driven Land Cover Service Composition Utilizing Behavior-Intention Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao; Chen, Jun; Xing, Huaqiao; Li, Songnian; Hu, Juju

    2016-06-01

    Web service composition is one of the key issues to develop a global land cover (GLC) information service portal. Aiming at the defect that traditional syntax and semantic service compositionare difficult to take pragmatic information into account, the paper firstly analyses three tiers of web service language and their succession relations, discusses the conceptual model of pragmatic web service, and proposes the idea of pragmatics-oriented adaptive composition method based on the analysis of some examples. On this basis it puts forward the pragmatic web service model based on Behavior-Intention through presetting and expression of service usability, users' intention, and other pragmatic information, develops the on-demand assembly method based on the agent theory and matching and reconstruction method on heterogeneous message, solves the key technological issue of algorithm applicability and heterogeneous message transformation in the process of covering web service composition on the ground, applies these methods into service combination, puts forward the pragmatic driven service composition method based on behavior-intention model, and effectively settles the issue of coordination and interaction of composite service invocation.

  6. A Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model for Analyzing Impacts of Land Cover Change on Flow Regimes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIA Jun; WANG Gang-Sheng; YE Ai-Zhong; NIU Cun-Wen

    2005-01-01

    The Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source for Beijing Municipality, the capital of China with a population of more than 12 million. In recent decades, the inflow to the reservoir has shown a decreasing trend, which has seriously threatened water use in Beijing. In order to analyze the influents of land use and cover change (LUCC)upon inflow to Miyun Reservoir, terrain and land use information from remote sensing were utilized with a revised evapotranspiration estimation formula; a water loss model under conditions of human impacts was introduced; and a distributed monthly water balance model was established and applied to the Chaobai River Basin controlled by the Miyun Reservoir. The model simulation suggested that not only the impact of land cover change on evapotranspiration, but also the extra water loss caused by human activities, such as the water and soil conservation development projects should be considered. Although these development projects were of great benefit to human and ecological protection, they could reallocate water resources in time and space, and in a sense thereby influence the stream flow.

  7. Modeling the Thickness of Perennial Ice Covers on Stratified Lakes of the Taylor Valley, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Hicks, J. A.; McKay, C. P.; Priscu, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    A one-dimensional ice cover model was developed to predict and constrain drivers of long term ice thickness trends in chemically stratified lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The model is driven by surface radiative heat fluxes and heat fluxes from the underlying water column. The model successfully reproduced 16 years (between 1996 and 2012) of ice thickness changes for west lobe of Lake Bonney (average ice thickness = 3.53 m; RMSE = 0.09 m, n = 118) and Lake Fryxell (average ice thickness = 4.22 m; RMSE = 0.21 m, n = 128). Long-term ice thickness trends require coupling with the thermal structure of the water column. The heat stored within the temperature maximum of lakes exceeding a liquid water column depth of 20 m can either impede or facilitate ice thickness change depending on the predominant climatic trend (temperature cooling or warming). As such, shallow (< 20 m deep water columns) perennially ice-covered lakes without deep temperature maxima are more sensitive indicators of climate change. The long-term ice thickness trends are a result of surface energy flux and heat flux from the deep temperature maximum in the water column, the latter of which results from absorbed solar radiation.

  8. PRAGMATICS DRIVEN LAND COVER SERVICE COMPOSITION UTILIZING BEHAVIOR-INTENTION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Web service composition is one of the key issues to develop a global land cover (GLC information service portal. Aiming at the defect that traditional syntax and semantic service compositionare difficult to take pragmatic information into account, the paper firstly analyses three tiers of web service language and their succession relations, discusses the conceptual model of pragmatic web service, and proposes the idea of pragmatics-oriented adaptive composition method based on the analysis of some examples. On this basis it puts forward the pragmatic web service model based on Behavior-Intention through presetting and expression of service usability, users' intention, and other pragmatic information, develops the on-demand assembly method based on the agent theory and matching and reconstruction method on heterogeneous message, solves the key technological issue of algorithm applicability and heterogeneous message transformation in the process of covering web service composition on the ground, applies these methods into service combination, puts forward the pragmatic driven service composition method based on behavior-intention model, and effectively settles the issue of coordination and interaction of composite service invocation.

  9. Facility Location Using Maximum Covering Model: An Application In Retail Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çiğdem Alabaş Uslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a store location problem has been addressed for service sector, and a real application problem for a leading firm in modern retail sector in Turkey has been solved by modeling with mathematical programming. Since imitating a store location in retail sector is hard and provides an important competitive edge, determining accurate store locations becomes a critical issue for the management. Application problem solved in this study is to choose appropriate areas for opening stores with different capacities and quantities in Umraniye, Istanbul. The problem has been converted to a maximum set covering model by considering after sales forecasts and also by taking into account several decision criteria foreseen by the management. Optimum solutions of the developed model for different scenarios has been obtained using a package program and presented to the firm management.

  10. Estimation of Fractional Vegetation Cover Based on Digital Camera Survey Data and a Remote Sensing Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Zhen-qi; HE Fen-qin; YIN Jian-zhong; LU Xia; TANG Shi-lu; WANG Lin-lin; LI Xiao-jing

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to improve the monitoring speed and precision of fractional vegetation cover (fc). It mainly focuses onfc estimation when fcmax andfcmin are not approximately equal to 100% and 0%, respectively due to using remote sensing image with medium or low spatial resolution. Meanwhile, we present a new method offc estimation based on a random set offc maximum and minimum values from digital camera (DC) survey data and a dimidiate pixel model. The results show that this is a convenient, efficient and accurate method forfc monitoring, with the maximum error -0.172 and correlation coefficient of 0.974 between DC survey data and the estimated value of the remote sensing model. The remaining DC survey data can be used as verification data for the precision of thefc estimation. In general, the estimation offc based on DC survey data and a remote sensing model is a brand-new development trend and deserves further extensive utilization.

  11. Constraining the Absolute Orientation of eta Carinae's Binary Orbit: A 3-D Dynamical Model for the Broad [Fe III] Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madura, T. I.; Gull, T. R.; Owocki, S. P.; Groh, J. H.; Okazaki, A. T.; Russell, C. M. P.

    2011-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission observed in Eta Carinae using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS). This model is based on full 3-D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of Eta Car's binary colliding winds. Radiative transfer codes are used to generate synthetic spectro-images of [Fe III] emission line structures at various observed orbital phases and STIS slit position angles (PAs). Through a parameter study that varies the orbital inclination i, the PA(theta) that the orbital plane projection of the line-of-sight makes with the apastron side of the semi-major axis, and the PA on the sky of the orbital axis, we are able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the absolute 3-D orientation of the binary orbit. To simultaneously reproduce the blue-shifted emission arcs observed at orbital phase 0.976, STIS slit PA = +38deg, and the temporal variations in emission seen at negative slit PAs, the binary needs to have an i approx. = 130deg to 145deg, Theta approx. = -15deg to +30deg, and an orbital axis projected on the sky at a P A approx. = 302deg to 327deg east of north. This represents a system with an orbital axis that is closely aligned with the inferred polar axis of the Homunculus nebula, in 3-D. The companion star, Eta(sub B), thus orbits clockwise on the sky and is on the observer's side of the system at apastron. This orientation has important implications for theories for the formation of the Homunculus and helps lay the groundwork for orbital modeling to determine the stellar masses.

  12. X-Ray Emitting GHz-Peaked Spectrum Galaxies: Testing a Dynamical-Radiative Model with Broad-Band Spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostorero, L.; /Turin U. /INFN, Turin; Moderski, R.; /Warsaw, Copernicus Astron. Ctr. /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Stawarz, L.; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /Jagiellonian U., Astron. Observ.; Diaferio, A.; /Turin U. /INFN, Turin; Kowalska, I.; /Warsaw U. Observ.; Cheung, C.C.; /NASA, Goddard /Naval Research Lab, Wash., D.C.; Kataoka, J.; /Waseda U., RISE; Begelman, M.C.; /JILA, Boulder; Wagner, S.J.; /Heidelberg Observ.

    2010-06-07

    In a dynamical-radiative model we recently developed to describe the physics of compact, GHz-Peaked-Spectrum (GPS) sources, the relativistic jets propagate across the inner, kpc-sized region of the host galaxy, while the electron population of the expanding lobes evolves and emits synchrotron and inverse-Compton (IC) radiation. Interstellar-medium gas clouds engulfed by the expanding lobes, and photoionized by the active nucleus, are responsible for the radio spectral turnover through free-free absorption (FFA) of the synchrotron photons. The model provides a description of the evolution of the GPS spectral energy distribution (SED) with the source expansion, predicting significant and complex high-energy emission, from the X-ray to the {gamma}-ray frequency domain. Here, we test this model with the broad-band SEDs of a sample of eleven X-ray emitting GPS galaxies with Compact-Symmetric-Object (CSO) morphology, and show that: (i) the shape of the radio continuum at frequencies lower than the spectral turnover is indeed well accounted for by the FFA mechanism; (ii) the observed X-ray spectra can be interpreted as non-thermal radiation produced via IC scattering of the local radiation fields off the lobe particles, providing a viable alternative to the thermal, accretion-disk dominated scenario. We also show that the relation between the hydrogen column densities derived from the X-ray (N{sub H}) and radio (N{sub HI}) data of the sources is suggestive of a positive correlation, which, if confirmed by future observations, would provide further support to our scenario of high-energy emitting lobes.

  13. Synchronous Chaos and Broad Band Gamma Rhythm in a Minimal Multi-Layer Model of Primary Visual Cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, Demian; Hansel, David

    2011-01-01

    Visually induced neuronal activity in V1 displays a marked gamma-band component which is modulated by stimulus properties. It has been argued that synchronized oscillations contribute to these gamma-band activity. However, analysis of Local Field Potentials (LFPs) across different experiments reveals considerable diversity in the degree of oscillatory behavior of this induced activity. Contrast-dependent power enhancements can indeed occur over a broad band in the gamma frequency range and spectral peaks may not arise at all. Furthermore, even when oscillations are observed, they undergo temporal decorrelation over very few cycles. This is not easily accounted for in previous network modeling of gamma oscillations. We argue here that interactions between cortical layers can be responsible for this fast decorrelation. We study a model of a V1 hypercolumn, embedding a simplified description of the multi-layered structure of the cortex. When the stimulus contrast is low, the induced activity is only weakly synchronous and the network resonates transiently without developing collective oscillations. When the contrast is high, on the other hand, the induced activity undergoes synchronous oscillations with an irregular spatiotemporal structure expressing a synchronous chaotic state. As a consequence the population activity undergoes fast temporal decorrelation, with concomitant rapid damping of the oscillations in LFPs autocorrelograms and peak broadening in LFPs power spectra. We show that the strength of the inter-layer coupling crucially affects this spatiotemporal structure. We predict that layer VI inactivation should induce global changes in the spectral properties of induced LFPs, reflecting their slower temporal decorrelation in the absence of inter-layer feedback. Finally, we argue that the mechanism underlying the emergence of synchronous chaos in our model is in fact very general. It stems from the fact that gamma oscillations induced by local delayed

  14. Synchronous chaos and broad band gamma rhythm in a minimal multi-layer model of primary visual cortex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demian Battaglia

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Visually induced neuronal activity in V1 displays a marked gamma-band component which is modulated by stimulus properties. It has been argued that synchronized oscillations contribute to these gamma-band activity. However, analysis of Local Field Potentials (LFPs across different experiments reveals considerable diversity in the degree of oscillatory behavior of this induced activity. Contrast-dependent power enhancements can indeed occur over a broad band in the gamma frequency range and spectral peaks may not arise at all. Furthermore, even when oscillations are observed, they undergo temporal decorrelation over very few cycles. This is not easily accounted for in previous network modeling of gamma oscillations. We argue here that interactions between cortical layers can be responsible for this fast decorrelation. We study a model of a V1 hypercolumn, embedding a simplified description of the multi-layered structure of the cortex. When the stimulus contrast is low, the induced activity is only weakly synchronous and the network resonates transiently without developing collective oscillations. When the contrast is high, on the other hand, the induced activity undergoes synchronous oscillations with an irregular spatiotemporal structure expressing a synchronous chaotic state. As a consequence the population activity undergoes fast temporal decorrelation, with concomitant rapid damping of the oscillations in LFPs autocorrelograms and peak broadening in LFPs power spectra. We show that the strength of the inter-layer coupling crucially affects this spatiotemporal structure. We predict that layer VI inactivation should induce global changes in the spectral properties of induced LFPs, reflecting their slower temporal decorrelation in the absence of inter-layer feedback. Finally, we argue that the mechanism underlying the emergence of synchronous chaos in our model is in fact very general. It stems from the fact that gamma oscillations induced by

  15. Evaluation of the MSG-SEVIRI snow-cover product potential in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surer, Serdar; Parajka, Juraj; Akyurek, Zuhal; Blöschl, Günter

    2013-04-01

    Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on board of METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite enables snow cover monitoring at very high temporal resolution of 15 min. It is one of the key components of the recent EUMETSAT program for Satellite Application Facility on Support to operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) Project. The main goal of the project is to develop, and test new satellite products in order to comply the requirements for operational hydrology and water resources management. The objective of this study is i) to compare snow cover product (H10) derived from MSG-SEVIRI with MODIS (MOD10A1) snow cover product, ii) to observe H10 product accuracy against in situ snow observations, and iii) to test potential of H10 product for calibration and validation of a conceptual hydrologic model. We compare MSG-SEVIRI, MODIS grid maps and daily snow depth measurements at 272 climate stations over Austria in the period from October 2007 to June 2012. The results indicate that temporal merging of 15 minutes MSG-SEVIRI observations allows a significant reduction of cloud coverage at daily time scale. The relative number of days with cloud coverage in winter season is on average 35% for MSG-SEVIRI, compared to 65% for MODIS dataset. The coarser spatial resolution of MSG-SEVIRI, namely 0.05o, however, resulted in lower mapping accuracy. The overall snow cover mapping error is 5% for MODIS and 15% for MSG-SEVIRI, respectively. Our results showed that for MSG-SEVIRI dataset, the underestimation errors dominate, and tend to increase with increasing altitude of climate stations. The potential of H10 for hydrological modeling is examined in two different mountain catchments, one in Austria, and the other in Turkey. We will evaluate the potential of snow H10 product for calibrating and validating a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model. Our results will discuss the strength and weaknesses of H10 product in

  16. Modeling of Electromagnetic Waves Scattering from Snow Covered First Year Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, A. S.; Barber, D. G.; Isleifson, D. K.

    2011-12-01

    Modeling of electromagnetic wave interaction with sea ice is required for various remote sensing applications, such as an interpretation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over sea ice. In this study, we present numerical modeling of the Normalized Radar Cross Section (NRCS) at vertical and horizontal polarizations from snow covered First Year (FY) sea ice. We consider sea ice as a layered medium with an arbitrary profile of dielectric constant, and the snow cover as a homogeneous layer on the top of the sea ice. Surface scattering at the snow-sea ice interface was taken into account by the first-order approximation of the small perturbation method. We obtained an analytical formulation for radar cross-sections at vertical and horizontal polarizations and conducted numerical modeling of the backscattering characteristics. The solution derived for NRCSs includes reflection coefficients from snow and sea ice. The calculation of reflection coefficients from the stratified sea ice is considered separately as an auxiliary problem. In-situ geophysical properties of snow and sea ice collected during the Circumpolar Flow Lead (CFL) system study project were used to estimate the dielectric constants of snow and sea ice for several case studies. The dielectric constant of the sea ice was calculated using the Polder-van-Santen/de Loor (PVD) mixture model, while the dielectric constant of the snow was estimated using a Debye-like model. The calculated angular dependencies of the NRCSs (HH- and VV- polarizations) and co-polarization ratios were compared with in-situ C-band scatterometer measurements. These comparisons demonstrate a good agreement between simulated and observed scattering characteristics.

  17. Modelling and optimization of land use/land cover change in a developing urban catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ping; Gao, Fei; He, Junchao; Ren, Xinxin; Xi, Weijin

    2017-06-01

    The impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on hydrological processes and water resources are mainly reflected in changes in runoff and pollutant variations. Low impact development (LID) technology is utilized as an effective strategy to control urban stormwater runoff and pollution in the urban catchment. In this study, the impact of LUCC on runoff and pollutants in an urbanizing catchment of Guang-Ming New District in Shenzhen, China, were quantified using a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Based on the simulations and observations, the main objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the catchment runoff and pollutant variations with LUCC, (2) to select and optimize the appropriate layout of LID in a planning scenario for reducing the growth of runoff and pollutants under LUCC, (3) to assess the optimal planning schemes for land use/cover. The results showed that compared to 2013, the runoff volume, peak flow and pollution load of suspended solids (SS), and chemical oxygen demand increased by 35.1%, 33.6% and 248.5%, and 54.5% respectively in a traditional planning scenario. The assessment result of optimal planning of land use showed that annual rainfall control of land use for an optimal planning scenario with LID technology was 65%, and SS pollutant load reduction efficiency 65.6%.

  18. Interpretation by numerical modeling of data monitored at a cover for a nuclear waste repository

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gran, M.; Carrera, J.; Saaltink, M. W.

    2012-04-01

    Two pilot covers have been set up at the Spanish facility for disposal of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste located at El Cabril (southern Spain). Their objective is to test the effectiveness in reducing or preventing surface erosion and runoff, infiltration and biointrusion. They consist of multilayer systems that profit from capillary barrier concepts. A complete monitoring system involving more than 200 sensors has been installed. At the same time, a complete meteorological station records meteorological data. This information is used to define initial and boundary conditions of a numerical model and also to test its validity. Here we discuss results of a preliminary 1D non isothermal multiphase flow model with an atmospheric boundary (whose fluxes depend on meteorological data) at the top. Furthermore a sink-source term has been developed to simulate the effect of lateral flow caused by the steep slope (40%) of the cover. Joint analysis of numerical simulation results together with field data allows us to study the behaviour of the liquid, gas and energy fluxes in a layered slope and to study the effects of different hydraulic properties, capillary pressures and degrees of saturation of the materials on the magnitude and direction of these flows.

  19. Spatial modelling of land use/cover change (LUCC) in South Tangerang City, Banten

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saifullah, K.; Barus, B.; Rustiadi, E.

    2017-01-01

    Urban expansion in peri-urban region remains a major issue for regional planning and development, as it converts most of the land cover into built-up settlements rapidly and extensively beyond its spatial allocation plan (RTRW). South Tangerang City is one of municipalities in Jabodetabek with the most rapid annual population growth rate reached 6.87%. LUCC analysis from three LANDSAT land cover maps (1990, 2002, and 2014) shows that the built-up area has increased 8 times (8650 ha) in 1990-2014 with the average annual growth rate of 10.83% per sub-district (kelurahan). The most extensive land conversion type in 1990-2002 was vegetated land to open land (3605ha), while in 2002-2014 land conversion type was dominated by open land to built-up (3446ha). In general, the built-up area expansion in 1990-2002 shows irregular ribbon development pattern in district Serpong Utara, Pondok Aren, Ciputat Timur, Ciputat, and Pamulang, while district Serpong tends to represent leap frog development pattern. The expansion in 2002-2014 shows infill and ribbon development pattern continuation across the city. MLP was used to model LUCC sensitivity prediction. The model performance shows 73.16% accuracy with ROC validation of prediction output reaches 0.804 for 2014, which is qualified to predict LUCC sensitivity in 2032.

  20. The value of snow cover maps for hydrological model calibration in snow dominated catchments in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duethmann, Doris; Güntner, Andreas; Peters, Juliane; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2013-04-01

    This study aims at investigating the value of snow cover data in addition to discharge data for the calibration of a hydrological model in six headwater catchments of the Karadarya basin, Central Asia. If a hydrological model is to be used for the investigation of potential impacts of climate change, it is important that also internal variables are simulated correctly. Snow melt is of particular relevance, as it is probably the most important runoff generation process in these catchments. The study investigates whether there is a trade-off between good simulations with respect to discharge and with respect to snow cover area. Furthermore, we are interested in the information content of snow cover data, i.e. how many snow cover images would be sufficient for effective calibration of a hydrological model. As suitable precipitation data for the study area are only available up to 1990, MODIS snow cover data could not be used and we instead resorted to AVHRR data. Processing of the AVHRR snow cover data is time consuming, because georeferencing has to be performed manually. If only few images could already exclude parameter sets resulting in low model performance with respect to snow cover area, this would be a very valuable piece of information. In order to investigate this, a varying number of snow cover images is used for model calibration within a Monte-Carlo framework, and the effect on model performance with respect to snow cover area in the validation period is evaluated. The selected study period is 1986-1989, in which both AVHRR data and other input data are available. It is split into two parts with up to around 20 snow cover scenes for model calibration and about the same number for model validation. In most of the catchments we found only a small trade-off between good simulations with respect to discharge and with respect to snow cover area, but if the parameters were selected based on the discharge objective function only, this could also include

  1. Clouds and relative humidity in climate models; or what really regulates cloud cover?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walcek, C. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The response and impact of clouds remains one of the largest outstanding questions in GCMs. Clouds are not homogeneous, though they are treated as such in the models. When averaged over areas typically used as numerical grid elements by GCMs, observations suggest that there are some clouds at all relative humidities. Fractional cloud cover at 100% relative humidity is rarely 100%, and totally clear skies rarely occur, even for low relative humidities. Relative humidity is the best single indicator of cloud coverage. However, if there is a relationship between cloud coverage and relative humidity, our current models and observations are inadequate to reveal exactly what that relationship is. It does appear that cloud coverage decreases exponentially as humidity falls below 100%. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  2. A Mixed Land Cover Spatio-temporal Data Model Based on Object-oriented and Snapshot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Yinchao

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatio-temporal data model (STDM is one of the hot topics in the domains of spatio-temporal database and data analysis. There is a common view that a universal STDM is always of high complexity due to the various situation of spatio-temporal data. In this article, a mixed STDM is proposed based on object-oriented and snapshot models for modelling and analyzing landcover change (LCC. This model uses the object-oriented STDM to describe the spatio-temporal processes of land cover patches and organize their spatial and attributive properties. In the meantime, it uses the snapshot STDM to present the spatio-temporal distribution of LCC on the whole via snapshot images. The two types of models are spatially and temporally combined into a mixed version. In addition to presenting the spatio-temporal events themselves, this model could express the transformation events between different classes of spatio-temporal objects. It can be used to create database for historical data of LCC, do spatio-temporal statistics, simulation and data mining with the data. In this article, the LCC data in Heilongjiang province is used for case study to validate spatio-temporal data management and analysis abilities of mixed STDM, including creating database, spatio-temporal query, global evolution analysis and patches spatio-temporal process expression.

  3. Calibration of a distributed snow model using MODIS snow covered area data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Kristie J.; Karsten, Logan R.

    2013-06-01

    Spatial ground-based observations of snow are often limited at the watershed-scale, therefore the snow modeling component of a hydrologic modeling system is often calibrated along with the rainfall-runoff model using watershed discharge observations. This practice works relatively well for lumped modeling applications when the accuracy of sub-watershed processes is generally not of concern. However, with the increasing use of distributed models, realistic representation of processes, such as snow areal depletion, become more important. In this study, we test the use of snow covered area (SCA) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra satellite for calibration of four key parameters in the distributed US National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW17 model in the North Fork of the American River basin in California, USA. Three tests are conducted; two rely solely on MODIS SCA data and one includes discharge in the calibration procedure. The three calibrations are compared to the use of parameters obtained from the NWS California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). The calibration approach that utilizes both MODIS SCA and discharge data produces the most accurate spatial (gridded) SCA and basin discharge simulations but not the best SCA summary statistics. In general it was found that improvement in simulated SCA when averaged and evaluated by elevation zone using standard summary statistics, does not necessarily coincide with more accurate discharge simulations.

  4. Estimation of Tree Cover in an Agricultural Parkland of Senegal Using Rule-Based Regression Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie M. Herrmann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Field trees are an integral part of the farmed parkland landscape in West Africa and provide multiple benefits to the local environment and livelihoods. While field trees have received increasing interest in the context of strengthening resilience to climate variability and change, the actual extent of farmed parkland and spatial patterns of tree cover are largely unknown. We used the rule-based predictive modeling tool Cubist® to estimate field tree cover in the west-central agricultural region of Senegal. A collection of rules and associated multiple linear regression models was constructed from (1 a reference dataset of percent tree cover derived from very high spatial resolution data (2 m Orbview as the dependent variable, and (2 ten years of 10-day 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI composites and derived phenological metrics as independent variables. Correlation coefficients between modeled and reference percent tree cover of 0.88 and 0.77 were achieved for training and validation data respectively, with absolute mean errors of 1.07 and 1.03 percent tree cover. The resulting map shows a west-east gradient from high tree cover in the peri-urban areas of horticulture and arboriculture to low tree cover in the more sparsely populated eastern part of the study area. A comparison of current (2000s tree cover along this gradient with historic cover as seen on Corona images reveals dynamics of change but also areas of remarkable stability of field tree cover since 1968. The proposed modeling approach can help to identify locations of high and low tree cover in dryland environments and guide ground studies and management interventions aimed at promoting the integration of field trees in agricultural systems.

  5. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezowski, T.; Nossent, J.; Chormański, J.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-04-01

    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis method for spatial input data (snow cover fraction - SCF) for a distributed rainfall-runoff model to investigate when the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focussed on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical and spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland, for which a distributed WetSpa model is set up to simulate 2 years of daily runoff. The sensitivity analysis uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) algorithm, which employs different response functions for each spatial parameter representing a 4 × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as geomorphology, soil texture, land use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for our spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model. The developed method can be easily applied to other models and other spatial data.

  6. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  7. From forest to farmland and moraine to meadow: Integrated modeling of Holocene land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2012-12-01

    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene, both spatially and temporally. In order to address this problem, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive these integrated models with paleoclimate from GCM scenarios, a new synthesis of global demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a global database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate land cover and land use change, fire, soil erosion, and emissions of CO2 and methane (CH4) from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850. We evaluate our simulations in part with a new set of continental-scale reconstructions of land cover based on records from the Global Pollen Database. Our model results show that climate and tectonic change controlled global land cover in the early Holocene, e.g., shifts in forest biomes in northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits, but that by the early Iron Age (1000 BC), humans in Europe, east Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. 3000 years before present, anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. Burned area and emissions of CO2 and CH4 from wildfires declined slowly over the entire Holocene, as landscape fragmentation and changing agricultural

  8. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall–runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Berezowski

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall–runoff modelling is strongly growing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis (SA method for snow cover fraction input data (SCF for a distributed rainfall–runoff model to investigate if the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focused on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical, spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall–runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland for which a distributed WetSpa model is setup to simulate two years of daily runoff. The SA uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT algorithm, which uses different response functions for each 4 km × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as: geomorphology, soil texture, land-use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for the spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model.

  9. Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; MacBean, N.; Hartley, A.; Khlystova, I.; Arino, O.; Betts, R.; Bontemps, S.; Boettcher, M.; Brockmann, C.; Defourny, P.; Hagemann, S.; Herold, M.; Kirches, G.; Lamarche, C.; Lederer, D.; Ottlé, C.; Peters, M.; Peylin, P.

    2015-07-01

    Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land cover data sets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), with land cover (LC_CCI) as 1 of 13 essential climate variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases: first responding to a survey of user needs; developing a global, moderate-resolution land cover data set for three time periods, or epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010); and the last phase resulting in a user tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFTs). The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users, and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT data set and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land-atmosphere interactions. The main difference between the new LC_CCI product and PFT data sets used currently by three different dynamic global vegetation modeling teams is a reduction in high-latitude grassland cover, a reduction in tropical tree cover and an expansion in temperate forest cover in Europe. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  10. An analytical model of hydrogen evolution and oxidation reactions on electrodes partially covered with a catalyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemppainen, Erno; Halme, Janne; Lund, Peter D

    2016-05-11

    Our previous theoretical study on the performance limits of the platinum (Pt) nanoparticle catalyst for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) had shown that the mass transport losses at a partially catalyst-covered planar electrode are independent of the catalyst loading. This suggests that the two-dimensional (2D) numerical model used could be simplified to a one-dimensional (1D) model to provide an easier but equally accurate description of the operation of these HER electrodes. In this article, we derive an analytical 1D model and show that it indeed gives results that are practically identical to the 2D numerical simulations. We discuss the general principles of the model and how it can be used to extend the applicability of existing electrochemical models of planar electrodes to low catalyst loadings suitable for operating photoelectrochemical devices under unconcentrated sunlight. Since the mass transport losses of the HER are often very sensitive to the H2 concentration, we also discuss the limiting current density of the hydrogen oxidation reaction (HOR) and how it is not necessarily independent of the reaction kinetics. The results give insight into the interplay of kinetic and mass-transport limitations at HER/HOR electrodes with implications for the design of kinetic experiments and the optimization of catalyst loadings in the photoelectrochemical cells.

  11. Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Area Data in a Distributed Hydrological Model Using the Particle Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Kalas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Snow is an important component of the water cycle, and its estimation in hydrological models is of great significance concerning the simulation and forecasting of flood events due to snow-melt. The assimilation of Snow Cover Area (SCA in physical distributed hydrological models is a possible source of improvement of snowmelt-related floods. In this study, the assimilation in the LISFLOOD model of the MODIS sensor SCA has been evaluated, in order to improve the streamflow simulations of the model. This work is realized with the final scope of improving the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS pan-European flood forecasts in the future. For this purpose daily 500 m resolution MODIS satellite SCA data have been used. Tests were performed in the Morava basin, a tributary of the Danube, for three years. The particle filter method has been chosen for assimilating the MODIS SCA data with different frequencies. Synthetic experiments were first performed to validate the assimilation schemes, before assimilating MODIS SCA data. Results of the synthetic experiments could improve modelled SCA and discharges in all cases. The assimilation of MODIS SCA data with the particle filter shows a net improvement of SCA. The Nash of resulting discharge is consequently increased in many cases.

  12. Integrating the system dynamic and cellular automata models to predict land use and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaoming; Du, Ziqiang; Zhang, Hong

    2016-10-01

    Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a widely researched topic in related studies. A number of models have been established to simulate LULCC patterns. However, the integration of the system dynamic (SD) and the cellular automata (CA) model have been rarely employed in LULCC simulations, although it allows for combining the advantages of each approach and therefore improving the simulation accuracy. In this study, we integrated an SD model and a CA model to predict LULCC under three future development scenarios in Northern Shanxi province of China, a typical agro-pastoral transitional zone. The results indicated that our integrated approach represented the impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on LULCC well, and could accurately simulate the magnitude and spatial pattern of LULCC. The modeling scenarios illustrated that different development pathways would lead to various LULCC patterns. This study demonstrated the advantages of the integration approach for simulating LULCC and suggests that LULCC is affected to a large degree by natural and socioeconomic factors.

  13. Modeling the Long-Term Evolution of Supraglacial Ice Cliffs on Himalayan Debris-Covered Glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, P.; Miles, E. S.; Steiner, J. F.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

    2016-12-01

    Supraglacial ice cliffs are present on debris-covered glaciers worldwide and provide the only direct atmosphere-ice interface over the lower sections of these glaciers. Low albedo and high longwave emissions from surrounding debris cause very high melt rates, accounting for a significant portion of total glacier mass loss. As a result, ice cliffs affect glacier downwasting and mass balance. Additionally, and in contrast to the debris-covered ice, high melt at cliffs turns them into dynamic features, directly affecting glacier surface evolution. While conceptual ideas about the formation, evolution and collapse of ice cliffs exist, their life cycles have never been thoroughly documented. Based on observations obtained from high-resolution aerial and terrestrial images analyzed with Structure-from-Motion and with data from automatic weather stations on two glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya, we simulate the evolution of selected ice cliffs over several seasons using a new physically-based model of cliff backwasting. The 3D model calculates the energy-balance at the cliff scale and includes the cliff interaction with supraglacial ponds and reburial by debris. We consider cliffs of different shape, orientation and slope, and we show that backwasting leads to a variety of evolution typologies, with cliffs that maintain a constant, self-similar geometry, cliffs that grow laterally and cliffs that disappear through slope shallowing and debris melt-out. Most cliffs persist over several seasons. The presence of a pond appears to be the key control for cliffs to survive, while east and west facing cliffs grow because of higher radiation receipts. We use the model to test the hypothesis that south-facing cliffs do not survive. We show that most south-facing cliffs demise after one melt season on both glaciers, because of high input of solar radiation exceeding the longwave radiation receipt. For north facing features, the longwave radiation receipts at lower cliff sections

  14. Land Surface Models Evaluation for Two Different Land-Cover Types: Cropland and Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeun Kim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Land Surface Model (LSM is an important tool used to understand the complicated hydro-meteorological flux interaction systems between the land surface and atmosphere in hydrological cycles. Over the past few decades, LSMs have further developed to more accurately estimate weather and climate hydrological processes. Common Land Model (CLM and Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM are used in this paper to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes for model applicability assessment at two different flux tower sites in Korea during the summer monsoon season. The estimated fluxes such as net radiation (RN, sensible heat flux (H, latent heat flux (LE, ground heat flux (G, and soil temperature (Ts were compared with the observed data from flux towers. The simulated RN from both models corresponded well with the in situ data. The root-mean-square error (RMSE values were 39 - 44 W m-2 for the CLM and 45 - 50 W m-2 for the Noah LSM while the H and LE showed relatively larger discrepancies with each observation. The estimated Ts from the CLM corresponded comparatively well with the observed soil temperature. The CLM estimations generally showed better statistical results than those from the Noah LSM, even though the estimated hydro-meteorological fluxes from both models corresponded reasonably with the observations. A sensitivity test indicated that differences according to different locations between the estimations from models and observations were caused by field conditions including the land-cover type and soil texture. In addition the estimated RN, H, LE, and G were more sensitive than the estimated Ts in both models.

  15. A mathematical model of thrombin production in blood coagulation, Part I: The sparsely covered membrane case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, S A; Basmadjian, D

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the first attempt to model the blood coagulation reactions in flowing blood. The model focuses on the common pathway and includes activation of factor X and prothrombin, including feedback activation of cofactors VIII and V by thrombin, and plasma inhibition of factor Xa and thrombin. In this paper, the first of two, the sparsely covered membrane (SCM) case is presented. This considers the limiting situation where platelet membrane binding sites are in excess, such that no membrane saturation or binding competition occurs. Under these conditions, the model predicts that the two positive feedback loops lead to multiple steady-state behavior in the range of intermediate mass transfer rates. It will be shown that this results in three parameter regions exhibiting very different thrombin production patterns. The model predicts the effect of flow on steady-state and dynamic thrombin production and attempts to explain the difference between venous and arterial thrombi. The reliance of thrombin production on precursor procoagulant protein concentrations is also assessed.

  16. Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, T.; Sayler, K.

    2008-01-01

    A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario

  17. Modelling of the frictional behaviour of the snake skin covered by anisotropic surface nanostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippov, Alexander E.; Gorb, Stanislav N.

    2016-03-01

    Previous experimental data clearly revealed anisotropic friction on the ventral scale surface of snakes. However, it is known that frictional properties of the ventral surface of the snake skin range in a very broad range and the degree of anisotropy ranges as well to a quite strong extent. This might be due to the variety of species studied, diversity of approaches used for the friction characterization, and/or due to the variety of substrates used as a counterpart in the experiments. In order to understand the interactions between the nanostructure arrays of the ventral surface of the snake skin, this study was undertaken, which is aimed at numerical modeling of frictional properties of the structurally anisotropic surfaces in contact with various size of asperities. The model shows that frictional anisotropy appears on the snake skin only on the substrates with a characteristic range of roughness, which is less or comparable with dimensions of the skin microstructure. In other words, scale of the skin relief should reflect an adaptation to the particular range of surfaces asperities of the substrate.

  18. Forward Bay Cover Separation Modeling and Testing for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Yasmin; Chuhta, Jesse D.; Hughes, Michael P.; Radke, Tara S.

    2015-01-01

    Spacecraft multi-body separation events during atmospheric descent require complex testing and analysis to validate the flight separation dynamics models used to verify no re-contact. The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) architecture includes a highly-integrated Forward Bay Cover (FBC) jettison assembly design that combines parachutes and piston thrusters to separate the FBC from the Crew Module (CM) and avoid re-contact. A multi-disciplinary team across numerous organizations examined key model parameters and risk areas to develop a robust but affordable test campaign in order to validate and verify the FBC separation event for Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). The FBC jettison simulation model is highly complex, consisting of dozens of parameters varied simultaneously, with numerous multi-parameter interactions (coupling and feedback) among the various model elements, and encompassing distinct near-field, mid-field, and far-field regimes. The test campaign was composed of component-level testing (for example gas-piston thrusters and parachute mortars), ground FBC jettison tests, and FBC jettison air-drop tests that were accomplished by a highly multi-disciplinary team. Three ground jettison tests isolated the testing of mechanisms and structures to anchor the simulation models excluding aerodynamic effects. Subsequently, two air-drop tests added aerodynamic and parachute elements, and served as integrated system demonstrations, which had been preliminarily explored during the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test in May 2010. Both ground and drop tests provided extensive data to validate analytical models and to verify the FBC jettison event for EFT-1. Additional testing will be required to support human certification of this separation event, for which NASA and Lockheed Martin are applying knowledge from Apollo and EFT-1 testing and modeling to develop a robust human-rated FBC separation event.

  19. Vegetation Cover Mapping Based on Remote Sensing and Digital Elevation Model Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korets, M. A.; Ryzhkova, V. A.; Danilova, I. V.; Prokushkin, A. S.

    2016-06-01

    An algorithm of forest cover mapping based on combined GIS-based analysis of multi-band satellite imagery, digital elevation model, and ground truth data was developed. Using the classification principles and an approach of Russian forest scientist Kolesnikov, maps of forest types and forest growing conditions (FGC) were build. The first map is based on RS-composite classification, while the second map is constructed on the basis of DEM-composite classification. The spatial combination of this two layers were also used for extrapolation and mapping of ecosystem carbon stock values (kgC/m2). The proposed approach was applied for the test site area (~3600 km2), located in the Northern Siberia boreal forests of Evenkia near Tura settlement.

  20. Regional adaptation of a dynamic global vegetation model using a remote sensing data derived land cover map of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khvostikov, S.; Venevsky, S.; Bartalev, S.

    2015-12-01

    The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) SEVER has been regionally adapted using a remote sensing data-derived land cover map in order to improve the reconstruction conformity of the distribution of vegetation functional types over Russia. The SEVER model was modified to address noticeable divergences between modelling results and the land cover map. The model modification included a light competition method elaboration and the introduction of a tundra class into the model. The rigorous optimisation of key model parameters was performed using a two-step procedure. First, an approximate global optimum was found using the efficient global optimisation (EGO) algorithm, and afterwards a local search in the vicinity of the approximate optimum was performed using the quasi-Newton algorithm BFGS. The regionally adapted model shows a significant improvement of the vegetation distribution reconstruction over Russia with better matching with the satellite-derived land cover map, which was confirmed by both a visual comparison and a formal conformity criterion.

  1. Land cover uncertainty generates substantial uncertainty in earth system model carbon and climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

    2017-04-01

    Several climate adaptation and mitigation strategies incorporate Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) to address global carbon balance and climate. However, LULCC is not consistent across the CMIP5 model simulations because only the land use input is harmonized. The associated LULCC uncertainty generates uncertainty in regional and global carbon and climate dynamics that obfuscates the evaluation of whether such strategies are effective in meeting their goals. For example, the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) overestimates 2004 atmospheric CO2 concentration by 14 ppmv, and we explore the contribution of historical LULCC uncertainty to this bias in relation to the effects of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and nitrogen deposition on terrestrial carbon. Using identical land use input, a chronologically referenced LULCC that accounts for pasture, as opposed to the default year-2000 referenced LULCC, increases this bias to 20 ppmv because more forest needs to be cleared for land use. Assuming maximum forest retention for all land conversion reduces the new bias to 19 ppmv, while minimum forest retention increases the new bias to 24 ppmv. There is a 33 Pg land carbon uncertainty range due to maximizing versus minimizing forest area, which is 80% of the estimated 41 PgC gain in land carbon due to CO2 fertilization combined with climate change from 1850-2004 and 150% of the estimated 22 PgC gain due to nitrogen deposition. These results demonstrate that LULCC accuracy and uncertainty are critical for estimating the carbon cycle, and also that LULCC may be an important lever for constraining global carbon estimates. Furthermore, different land conversion assumptions can generate local differences of over 1.0 °C between the two forest retention cases with less than 5% difference in tree cover within a grid cell. Whether these temperature differences are positive or negative depends more on region than on latitude. Sensible heat appears to be more sensitive than

  2. Numerical modelling of methane oxidation efficiency and coupled water-gas-heat reactive transfer in a sloping landfill cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S; Ng, C W W; Leung, A K; Liu, H W

    2017-10-01

    Microbial aerobic methane oxidation in unsaturated landfill cover involves coupled water, gas and heat reactive transfer. The coupled process is complex and its influence on methane oxidation efficiency is not clear, especially in steep covers where spatial variations of water, gas and heat are significant. In this study, two-dimensional finite element numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the performance of unsaturated sloping cover. The numerical model was calibrated using a set of flume model test data, and was then subsequently used for parametric study. A new method that considers transient changes of methane concentration during the estimation of the methane oxidation efficiency was proposed and compared against existing methods. It was found that a steeper cover had a lower oxidation efficiency due to enhanced downslope water flow, during which desaturation of soil promoted gas transport and hence landfill gas emission. This effect was magnified as the cover angle and landfill gas generation rate at the bottom of the cover increased. Assuming the steady-state methane concentration in a cover would result in a non-conservative overestimation of oxidation efficiency, especially when a steep cover was subjected to rainfall infiltration. By considering the transient methane concentration, the newly-modified method can give a more accurate oxidation efficiency. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Spatial object model[l]ing in fuzzy topological spaces : with applications to land cover change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Xinming

    2004-01-01

    The central topic of this thesis focuses on the accommodation of fuzzy spatial objects in a GIS. Several issues are discussed theoretically and practically, including the definition of fuzzy spatial objects, the topological relations between them, the modeling of fuzzy spatial objects, the generatio

  4. The damping model for sea waves covered by oil films of a finite thickness

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yanmin; ZHANG Jie; WANG Yunhua; MENG Junmin; ZHANG Xi

    2015-01-01

    In combination with a wave action balance equation, a damping model for sea waves covered by oil films of a finite thickness is proposed. The damping model is not only related to the physical parameters of the oil film, but also related to environment parameters. Meanwhile, the parametric analyses have been also conducted to understand the sensitivity of the damping model to these parameters. And numerical simulations demonstrate that a kinematic viscosity, a surface/interfacial elasticity, a thickness, and a fractional filling factor cause more significant effects on a damping ratio than the other physical parameters of the oil film. From the simulation it is also found that the influences induced by a wind speed and a wind direction are also remarkable. On the other hand, for a thick emulsified oil film, the damping effect on the radar signal induced by the reduction of an effective dielectric constant should also be taken into account. The simulated results are compared with the damping ratio evaluated by the 15 ENVISAT ASAR images acquired during the Gulf of Mexico oil spill accident.

  5. Dam breaking modeling on a river with ice cover : needs and tools : Hydro-Quebec perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchamen, G.W.; Quach, T.T.; Aubin, F.; Mellado, A. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Unite Barrages and Hydraulique

    2007-07-01

    In order to ensure public safety, owners and operators of high capacity dams in Quebec have a legal obligation to conduct dam break analysis for each of their dams. Several scenarios of dam failure have been modelled under open water conditions to anticipate the worst-case scenario in terms of downstream consequences. However, the province of Quebec is located north of the 45th parallel, and most of the surface waters are ice covered in the winter. The presence of ice influences the river flow characteristics. As such, it is important to evaluate how ice may change the propagation of a surge wave and other important hydraulic parameters following a dam break. This paper reviewed traditional hydraulic methodologies and models used to perform dam break analyses with particular attention to the presence of ice. The changes in hydraulic processes in river flow involve various physical phenomena, some of which are poorly understood from a theoretical point of view. In the past several years, robust numerical techniques borrowed from fluid mechanics and aerodynamics have resulted in the development of robust hydrodynamic codes that effectively handle irregular bottom geometries, dry bed and mixed flow regimes in reasonable computational times. However, advances are still needed in the understanding of several ice processes, their formulation and their modeling. Data collection that would improve the understanding of the processes is also needed in order to reduce the level of uncertainties associated with the results of dam-break analysis. 22 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs.

  6. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-12-01

    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of evolution emerge: (i) reclining cliffs that flatten during the ablation season; (ii) stable cliffs that maintain a self-similar geometry; and (iii) growing cliffs, expanding laterally. We use the insights from this unique data set to develop a 3-D model of cliff backwasting and evolution that is validated against observations and an independent data set of volume losses. The model includes ablation at the cliff surface driven by energy exchange with the atmosphere, reburial of cliff cells by surrounding debris, and the effect of adjacent ponds. The cliff geometry is updated monthly to account for the modifications induced by each of those processes. Model results indicate that a major factor affecting the survival of steep cliffs is the coupling with ponded water at its base, which prevents progressive flattening and possible disappearance of a cliff. The radial growth observed at one cliff is explained by higher receipts of longwave and shortwave radiation, calculated taking into account atmospheric fluxes, shading, and the emission of longwave radiation from debris surfaces. The model is a clear step forward compared to existing static approaches that calculate atmospheric melt over an invariant cliff geometry and can be used for long-term simulations of cliff evolution and to test existing hypotheses about cliffs' survival.

  7. Role of snow cover on urban heat island intensity investigated by urban canopy model with snow effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, T.; Mori, K.

    2015-12-01

    Urban heat islands have been investigated around the world including snowy regions. However, the relationship between urban heat island and snow cover remains unclear. This study examined the effect of snow cover in urban canopy on energy budget in urban areas of Sapporo, north Japan by 1km mesh WRF experiments. The modified urban canopy model permits snow cover in urban canopy by the modification of surface albedo, surface emissivity, and thermal conductivity for roof and road according to snow depth and snow water equivalent. The experiments revealed that snow cover in urban canopy decreases urban air temperature more strongly for daily maximum temperature (0.4-0.6 K) than for daily minimum temperature (0.1-0.3 K). The high snow albedo reduces the net radiation at building roof, leading to decrease in sensible heat flux. Interestingly, the cooling effect of snow cover compensates the warming effect by anthropogenic heat release in Sapporo, suggesting the importance of snow cover treatment in urban canopy model as well as estimating accurate anthropogenic heat distributions. In addition, the effect of road snow clearance tends to increase nocturnal surface air temperature in urban areas. A possible role of snow cover on urban heat island intensity was evaluated by two experiments with snow cover (i.e., realistic condition) and without snow cover in entire numerical domain. The snow cover decreases surface air temperature more in rural areas than in urban areas, which was commonly seen throughout a day, with stronger magnitude during nighttime than daytime, resulting in intensifying urban heat island by 4.0 K for daily minimum temperature.

  8. Characterizing Land-cover Changes Since 1650 in the Southeastern United States for Application to Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reker, R. R.; Loveland, T. R.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Hostetler, S. W.; Sundquist, E. T.; Thompson, R. S.; Willard, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    Land-cover change is a fundamental contributor to changes in climate, hydrology, and carbon cycling. European settlers introduced a series of widespread land-cover changes in eastern North America beginning in the early 17th century. These changes varied both temporally and spatially, and were related to population growth, emerging technology, and land-use. To examine the potential influence of historical land-cover changes on local to regional climate, we adapted reconstructed fractional land cover from 1650, 1850, and 1920 as well as land cover interpreted from Landsat imagery circa 1992 (Steyaert and Knox, 2008) as input for regional climate model experiments. Observed changes included: deforestation and conversion to agriculture in the mid-Atlantic region from 1650 to 1850, region-wide expansion of agriculture from 1850 to 1920, and wetland drainage, reforestation, and increased urbanization from 1920 to 1992. We translated the land cover datasets to the BATS (Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) thematic classification on a 20 km2 grid for ingestion into the RegCM4 regional climate model. In BATS, land-cover classifications determine biophysical parameters such as the seasonal albedo cycle, fractional vegetation condition, stomatal resistance, leaf area index (LAI), and rooting depth. By defining and characterizing land cover in a consistent manner across the four time slices, we are able to explore interactions and feedbacks between land cover and regional climate in late prehistoric and historic times. Steyaert, L. T., & Knox, R. G. (2008). Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113(D2).

  9. Polarimetric SAR Data for Urban Land Cover Classification Using Finite Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdianpari, Masoud; Akbari, Vahid; Mohammadimanesh, Fariba; Alioghli Fazel, Mohammad

    2013-04-01

    Image classification techniques play an important role in automatic analysis of remote sensing data. This paper demonstrates the potential of polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) for urban land cover mapping using an unsupervised classification approach. Analysis of PolSAR images often shows that non-Gaussian models give better representation of the scattering vector statistics. Hence, processing algorithms based on non-Gaussian statistics should improve performance, compared to complex Gaussian distributions. Several distributions could be used to model SAR image texture with different spatial correlation properties and various degrees of inhomogeneity [1-3]. Statistical properties are widely used for image segmentation and land cover classification of PolSAR data. The pixel-based approaches cluster individual pixels through analysis of their statistical properties. Those methods work well on the relatively coarse spatial resolution images. But classification results based on pixelwise analysis demonstrate the pepper-salt effect of speckle in medium and high resolution applications such as urban area monitoring [4]. Therefore, the expected improvement of the classification results is hindered by the increase of textural differences within a class. In such situation, enhancement could be made through exploring the contextual correlation among pixels by Markov random field (MRF) models [4, 5]. The potential of MRF models to retrieve spatial contextual information is desired to improve the accuracy and reliability of image classification. Unsupervised contextual polarimetric SAR image segmentation is addressed by combining statistical modeling and spatial context within an MRF framework. We employ the stochastic expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm [6] to jointly perform clustering of the data and parameter estimation of the statistical distribution conditioned to each image cluster and the MRF model. This classification method is applied on medium

  10. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  11. Multiwavelength campaign on Mrk 509 XV. A global modeling of the broad emission lines in the Optical, UV and X-ray bands

    CERN Document Server

    Costantini, E; Kaastra, J S; Bianchi, S; Branduardi-Raymont, G; Cappi, M; De Marco, B; Ebrero, J; Mehdipour, M; Petrucci, P -O; Paltani, S; Ponti, G; Steenbrugge, K C; Arav, N

    2016-01-01

    We model the broad emission lines present in the optical, UV and X-ray spectra of Mrk 509, a bright type 1 Seyfert galaxy. The broad lines were simultaneously observed during a large multiwavelength campaign, using the XMM-Newton-OM for the optical lines, HST-COS for the UV lines and XMM-Newton-RGS and Epic for the X-ray lines respectively. We also used FUSE archival data for the broad lines observed in the far-ultra-violet. The goal is to find a physical connection among the lines measured at different wavelengths and determine the size and the distance from the central source of the emitting gas components. We used the "Locally optimally emission Cloud" (LOC) model which interprets the emissivity of the broad line region (BLR) as regulated by powerlaw distributions of both gas density and distances from the central source. We find that one LOC component cannot model all the lines simultaneously. In particular, we find that the X-ray and UV lines likely may originate in the more internal part of the AGN, at ...

  12. Competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process: Evidence and implications for species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B.

    2016-01-01

    There is considerable debate about the role of competition in shaping species distributions over broad spatial extents. This debate has practical implications because predicting changes in species' geographic ranges in response to ongoing environmental change would be simpler if competition could be ignored. While this debate has been the subject of many reviews, recent literature has not addressed the rates of relevant processes. This omission is surprising in that ecologists hypothesized decades ago that regional competitive exclusion is a slow process. The goal of this review is to reassess the debate under the hypothesis that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process.Available evidence, including simulations presented for the first time here, suggests that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents occurs slowly over temporal extents of many decades to millennia. Ecologists arguing against an important role for competition frequently study modern patterns and/or range dynamics over periods of decades, while much of the evidence for competition shaping geographic ranges at broad spatial extents comes from paleoecological studies over time scales of centuries or longer. If competition is slow, as evidence suggests, the geographic distributions of some, perhaps many species, would continue to change over time scales of decades to millennia, even if environmental conditions did not continue to change. If the distributions of competing species are at equilibrium it is possible to predict species distributions based on observed species–environment relationships. However, disequilibrium is widespread as a result of competition and many other processes. Studies whose goal is accurate predictions over intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) should focus on factors associated with range expansion (colonization) and loss (local extinction), as opposed to current patterns. In general, understanding of modern range dynamics would be

  13. Improving arable land heterogeneity information in available land cover products for land surface modelling using MERIS NDVI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Regionalization of physical land surface models requires the supply of detailed land cover information. Numerous global and regional land cover maps already exist but generally, they do not resolve arable land into different crop types. However, arable land comprises a huge variety of different crops with characteristic phenological behaviour, demonstrated in this paper with Leaf Area Index (LAI measurements exemplarily for maize and winter wheat. This affects the mass and energy fluxes on the land surface and thus its hydrology. The objective of this study is the generation of a land cover map for central Europe based on CORINE Land Cover (CLC 2000, merged with CORINE Switzerland, but distinguishing different crop types. Accordingly, an approach was developed, subdividing the land cover class arable land into the regionally most relevant subclasses for central Europe using multiseasonal MERIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data. The satellite data were used for the separation of spring and summer crops due to their different phenological behaviour. Subsequently, the generated phenological classes were subdivided following statistical data from EUROSTAT. This database was analysed concerning the acreage of different crop types. The impact of the improved land use/cover map on evapotranspiration was modelled exemplarily for the Upper Danube catchment with the hydrological model PROMET. Simulations based on the newly developed land cover approach showed a more detailed evapotranspiration pattern compared to model results using the traditional CLC map, which is ignorant of most arable subdivisions. Due to the improved temporal behaviour and spatial allocation of evapotranspiration processes in the new land cover approach, the simulated water balance more closely matches the measured gauge.

  14. Modeling broad-scale patterns of avian species richness across the Midwestern United States with measures of satellite image texture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff; Veronique St-Louis; Curtis H. Flather; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon

    2012-01-01

    Avian biodiversity is threatened, and in order to prioritize limited conservation resources and conduct effective conservation planning a better understanding of avian species richness patterns is needed. The use of image texture measures, as a proxy for the spatial structure of land cover and vegetation, has proven useful in explaining patterns of avian abundance and...

  15. Using state-and-transition models to evaluate impacts of land cover change on wind erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind erosion of rangeland soils is a global problem exacerbated by land cover change. Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological sites and state-and-transi...

  16. Detection and prediction of land cover changes using Markov chain model in semi-arid rangeland in western Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathizad, Hassan; Rostami, Noredin; Faramarzi, Marzban

    2015-10-01

    The study of changes and destruction rate in the previous years as well as the possibility of prediction of these changes in the following years has a key role in optimal planning, controlling, and restricting non-normative changes in the future. This research was approached to detecting land use/cover changes (1985-2007) and to forecast the changes in the future (2021) use of multitemporal satellite imagery in semi-arid area in western Iran. A supervised classification of multilayer perceptron (MLP) was applied for detecting land use changes. The study area was classified into five classes, those of forest, rangeland, agriculture, residential, and barren lands. The change detection analysis indicated a decreasing trend in forest cover by 30.42%, while other land uses were increased during 1985 to 2007. The land use changes were predicted using Markov chain model for 2021. The model was calibrated by comparing the simulated map with the real detected classes of land cover in 2007. Then, for further model processing, an acceptable accuracy at 83% was achieved between them. Finally, land use changes were predicted by using transition matrix derived from calibrated approach. The findings of this study demonstrate a rapid change in land use/cover for the coming years. Transforming the forest into other land uses especially rangeland and cropland is the main land cover changes in the future. Therefore, the planning of protection and restoration of forest cover should be an essential program for decision-makers in the study area.

  17. Modeling the snow cover in climate studies: 2. The sensitivity to internal snow parameters and interface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Bettina; Graf, Hans-F.

    1998-05-01

    In order to find an optimal complexity for snow-cover models in climate studies, the influence of single snow processes on both the snow mass balance and the energy fluxes between snow surface and atmosphere has been investigated. Using a sophisticated model, experiments were performed under several different atmospheric and regional conditions (Arctic, midlatitudes, alpine regions). A high simulation quality can be achieved with a multilayered snow-cover model resolving the internal snow processes (cf. part 1,[Loth and Graf, this issue]). Otherwise, large errors can occur, mostly in zones which are of paramount importance for the entire climate dynamics. Owing to simplifications of such a model, the mean energy balance of the snow cover, the turbulent heat fluxes, and the long-wave radiation at the snow surface may alter by between 1 W/m2 and 8 W/m2. The snow-surface temperatures can be systematically changed by about 10 K.

  18. Crustal deformation in the south-central Andes backarc terranes as viewed from regional broad-band seismic waveform modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, Patricia; Beck, Susan; Zandt, George; Araujo, Mario; Triep, Enrique

    2005-11-01

    The convergence between the Nazca and South America tectonic plates generates a seismically active backarc region near 31°S. Earthquake locations define the subhorizontal subducted oceanic Nazca plate at depths of 90-120 km. Another seismic region is located within the continental upper plate with events at depths Sierras Pampeanas and is responsible for the large earthquakes that have caused major human and economic losses in Argentina. South of 33°S, the intense shallow continental seismicity is more restricted to the main cordillera over a region where the subducted Nazca plate starts to incline more steeply, and there is an active volcanic arc. We operated a portable broad-band seismic network as part of the Chile-Argentina Geophysical Experiment (CHARGE) from 2000 December to 2002 May. We have studied crustal earthquakes that occurred in the back arc and under the main cordillera in the south-central Andes (29°S-36°S) recorded by the CHARGE network. We obtained the focal mechanisms and source depths for 27 (3.5 Sierras Pampeanas, over the flat-slab segment is dominated by reverse and thrust fault-plane solutions located at an average source depth of 20 km. One moderate-sized earthquake (event 02-117) is very likely related to the northern part of the Precordillera and the Sierras Pampeanas terrane boundary. Another event located near Mendoza at a greater depth (~26 km) (event 02-005) could also be associated with the same ancient suture. We found strike-slip focal mechanisms in the eastern Sierras Pampeanas and under the main cordillera with shallower focal depths of ~5-7 km. Overall, the western part of the entire region is more seismically active than the eastern part. We postulate that this is related to the presence of different pre-Andean geological terranes. We also find evidence for different average crustal models for those terranes. Better-fitting synthetic seismograms result using a higher P-wave velocity, a smaller average S-wave velocity and a

  19. Per pixel uncertainty modelling and its spatial representation on land cover maps obtained by hybrid classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Xavier; Sevillano, Eva; Moré, Gerard; Serra, Pere; Cornford, Dan; Ninyerola, Miquel

    2013-04-01

    The usage of remote sensing imagery combined with statistical classifiers to obtain categorical cartography is now common practice. As in many other areas of geographic information quality assessment, knowing the accuracy of these maps is crucial, and the spatialization of quality information is becoming ever more important for a large range of applications. Whereas some classifiers (e.g., maximum likelihood, linear discriminant analysis, naive Bayes, etc) permit the estimation and spatial representation of the uncertainty through a pixel level probabilistic estimator (and, from that, to compute a global accuracy estimator for the whole map), for other methods such a direct estimator does not exist. Regardless of the classification method applied, ground truth data is almost always available (to train the classifier and/or to compute the global accuracy and, usually, a confusion matrix). Our research is devoted to the development of a protocol to spatialize the error on a general framework based on the classifier parameters, and some ground truth reference data. In the methodological experiment presented here we provide an insight into uncertainty modelling for a hybrid classifier that combines unsupervised and supervised stages (implemented in the MiraMon GIS). In this work we describe what we believe is the first attempt to characterise pixel level uncertainty in a two stage classification process. We describe the model setup, show the preliminary results and identify future work that will be undertaken. The study area is a Landsat full frame located at the North-eastern region of the Iberian Peninsula. The six non-thermal bands + NDVI of a multi-temporal set of six geometrically and radiometrically corrected Landsat-5 images (between 2005 and 2007) were submitted to a hybrid classification process, together with some ancillary data (climate, slopes, etc). Training areas were extracted from the Land Cover Map of Catalonia (MCSC), a 0.5 m resolution map created by

  20. Evaporation suppression from reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale wind-tunnel observations and mechanistic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, Dani; Lehmann, Peter; Aminzadeh, Milad; Sommer, Martina; Wey, Hannah; Krentscher, Christiane; Wunderli, Hans; Breitenstein, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation, thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design and implementation remain largely empirical. We report a systematic experimental evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind plus radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  1. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Vogelmann, J.E.; Zhu, Z.; Key, C.H.; Sleeter, B.M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Howard, S.M.; Bliss, N.B.; Jiang, H.

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1TgCyr-1 (1 teragram=1012g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1TgCyr-1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0TgCyr-1 (total of 149TgC). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged -0.55TgCyr-1 (total of -27.3TgC) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34TgCyr-1). During the study period, a total of 126Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834TgC, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63TgC. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197TgC. Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific

  2. Modeling Transient Root-zone Soil Moisture Dichotomies in Landscapes with Intermixed Land Covers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrignani, A.; Ochsner, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    Although large-scale in situ soil moisture monitoring networks are becoming increasingly valuable research tools, deficiencies of many existing networks include the small spatial support of each station, the low spatial density of stations, and the almost exclusive deployment of stations in grassland vegetation. These grassland soil moisture observations may not adequately represent the real soil moisture patterns in landscapes with intermixed land cover types. The objectives of this study were i) to compare root-zone soil moisture dynamics of two dominant vegetation types across Oklahoma, grassland (observed) and winter wheat cropland (simulated); ii) to relate the soil moisture dynamics of grassland and cropland vegetation using an artificial neural network (ANN) as a transfer function; and iii) to use the resulting ANN to estimate the soil moisture spatial patterns for a landscape of intermixed grassland and wheat cropland. Root-zone soil moisture was represented by plant available water (PAW) in the top 0.8 m of the soil profile. PAW under grassland was calculated from 18 years of soil moisture observations at 78 stations of the Oklahoma Mesonet, whereas PAW under winter wheat was simulated for the same 78 locations using a soil water balance model. Then, we trained an ANN to reproduce the simulated PAW under winter wheat using only seven inputs: day of the year, latitude and longitude, measured PAW under grassland, and percent sand, silt, and clay. The resulting ANN was used, along with grassland soil moisture observations, to estimate the detailed soil moisture pattern for a 9x9 km2 Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) grid cell. The seasonal dynamics of root-zone PAW for grassland and winter wheat were strongly asynchronous, so grassland soil moisture observations rarely reflect cropland soil moisture conditions in the region. The simple ANN approach facilitated efficient and accurate prediction of the simulated PAW under winter wheat, RMSE = 24 mm, using

  3. Effect of Covers and Rainfall on Soil and Water Conservation Using a Tilting Flume Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Compliew

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of stone and vegetative covers was evaluated for soil and water conservation in a waterway on salty soils in the Northeast of Thailand. Experiments were conducted on a hydraulic tilting flume under simulated unit flow (120 and 45 cm2s-1, rainfall (120 mm/hr and slope (0, 1.2,1.4,1.6,1.8,2.0, 2.2, 2.4, 2.6, 2.8 and 3.0% conditions. The depth of soil was maintained at 0.20 m. over a perforated bed to facilitate deep drainage. A comparative study of bare soil, stone cover (50% and vegetative cover (50% is made to evaluate soil loss, deep drainage, Manning’s roughness coefficient. The study has revealed that stone cover is more effective than vegetative cover at lower discharge in reducing the flow velocity and thereby soil erosion. Deep drainage has been reduced from lower discharge to higher discharge for all the slopes with cover measures, including bare soil. It is also found that cover measures are necessary beyond 2.6% bed slope in order to prevent rill erosion in salty soils.

  4. Using Urban Landscape Trajectories to Develop a Multi-Temporal Land Cover Database to Support Ecological Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Alberti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting changes in land cover have myriad impacts on ecological systems. Monitoring these changes across large spatial extents and long time spans requires synoptic remotely sensed data with an appropriate temporal sequence. We developed a multi-temporal land cover dataset for a six-county area surrounding the Seattle, Washington State, USA, metropolitan region. Land cover maps for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were developed from Landsat TM images through a combination of spectral unmixing, image segmentation, multi-season imagery, and supervised classification approaches to differentiate an initial nine land cover classes. We then used ancillary GIS layers and temporal information to define trajectories of land cover change through multiple updating and backdating rules and refined our land cover classification for each date into 14 classes. We compared the accuracy of the initial approach with the landscape trajectory modifications and determined that the use of landscape trajectory rules increased our ability to differentiate several classes including bare soil (separated into cleared for development, agriculture, and clearcut forest and three intensities of urban. Using the temporal dataset, we found that between 1986 and 2002, urban land cover increased from 8 to 18% of our study area, while lowland deciduous and mixed forests decreased from 21 to 14%, and grass and agriculture decreased from 11 to 8%. The intensity of urban land cover increased with 252 km2 in Heavy Urban in 1986 increasing to 629 km2 by 2002. The ecological systems that are present in this region were likely significantly altered by these changes in land cover. Our results suggest that multi-temporal (i.e., multiple years and multiple seasons within years Landsat data are an economical means to quantify land cover and land cover change across large and highly heterogeneous urbanizing landscapes. Our data, and similar temporal land cover change

  5. Plant functional type classification for Earth System Models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Poulter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land-cover datasets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI, with land cover (LC_CCI as one of thirteen Essential Climate Variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases, first responding to a survey of user needs, then developing a global, moderate resolution, land-cover dataset for three time periods, or epochs, 2000, 2005, and 2010, and the last phase resulting in a user-tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFT. The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three-earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT dataset and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land–atmosphere interactions. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as Phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  6. Modelling photometric reverberation data -- a disk-like broad line region and larger black hole mass for 3C120

    CERN Document Server

    Nuñez, F Pozo; Ramolla, M; Westhues, C; Haas, M; Chini, R; Steenbrugge, K; Lemke, R; Murphy, M

    2013-01-01

    We consider photometric reverberation mapping, where the nuclear continuum variations are monitored via a broad band filter and the echo of emission line clouds of the broad line region (BLR) is measured with a suitable narrow band (NB) filter. We investigate how an incomplete emission line coverage by the NB filter influences the BLR size determination. This includes two basic cases: 1) a symmetric cut of the blue and red part of the line wings, and 2) the filter positioned asymmetrically to the line center so that essentially a complete half of the emission line is contained in the NB filter. We find that symmetric cutting of line wings may lead to an overestimate of the BLR size which is less than 5%. The case of asymmetric line coverage, as for our data of the Seyfert-1 galaxy 3C120, yields the BLR size with less than 1% bias. Our results suggest that any BLR size bias due to narrow-band line cut in photometric reverberation mapping is small and in most cases negligible. We use well sampled photometric re...

  7. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Kuchment

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE, accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with a special focus on forest cover effects. The model was first calibrated against available ground-based snow measurements and then was applied to calculate the spatial distribution of snow characteristics using satellite data and interpolated ground-based meteorological data. The remote sensing data used in the model consist of products derived from observations of MODIS and AMSR-E instruments onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. They include daily maps of snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE, land surface temperature, and weekly maps of surface albedo. Maps of land cover classes and tree cover fraction derived from NOAA AVHRR were used to characterize the vegetation cover. The developed technique was tested over a study area of approximately 200 000 km2 located in the European part of Russia (56° N to 60° N, and 48° E to 54° E. The study area comprises the Vyatka River basin with the catchment area of 124 000 km2. The spatial distributions of SWE, obtained with the coupled model, as well as solely from satellite data were used as the inputs in a physically-based model of runoff generation to simulate runoff hydrographs on the Vyatka river for spring seasons of 2003, 2005. The comparison of simulated hydrographs with the observed ones has shown that suggested procedure gives a higher accuracy of snow cover spatial distribution representation and hydrograph simulations than the direct use of satellite SWE data.

  8. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchment, L. S.; Romanov, P.; Gelfan, A. N.; Demidov, V. N.

    2009-08-01

    A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE), accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with a special focus on forest cover effects. The model was first calibrated against available ground-based snow measurements and then was applied to calculate the spatial distribution of snow characteristics using satellite data and interpolated ground-based meteorological data. The remote sensing data used in the model consist of products derived from observations of MODIS and AMSR-E instruments onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. They include daily maps of snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), land surface temperature, and weekly maps of surface albedo. Maps of land cover classes and tree cover fraction derived from NOAA AVHRR were used to characterize the vegetation cover. The developed technique was tested over a study area of approximately 200 000 km2 located in the European part of Russia (56° N to 60° N, and 48° E to 54° E). The study area comprises the Vyatka River basin with the catchment area of 124 000 km2. The spatial distributions of SWE, obtained with the coupled model, as well as solely from satellite data were used as the inputs in a physically-based model of runoff generation to simulate runoff hydrographs on the Vyatka river for spring seasons of 2003, 2005. The comparison of simulated hydrographs with the observed ones has shown that suggested procedure gives a higher accuracy of snow cover spatial distribution representation and hydrograph simulations than the direct use of satellite SWE data.

  9. Linking land cover and species distribution models to project potential ranges of malaria vectors: an example using Anopheles arabiensis in Sudan and Upper Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuller Douglas O

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Anopheles arabiensis is a particularly opportunistic feeder and efficient vector of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa and may invade areas outside its normal range, including areas separated by expanses of barren desert. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how spatial models can project future irrigated cropland and potential, new suitable habitat for vectors such as An. arabiensis. Methods Two different but complementary spatial models were linked to demonstrate their synergy for assessing re-invasion potential of An. arabiensis into Upper Egypt as a function of irrigated cropland expansion by 2050. The first model (The Land Change Modeler was used to simulate changes in irrigated cropland using a Markov Chain approach, while the second model (MaxEnt uses species occurrence points, land cover and other environmental layers to project probability of species presence. Two basic change scenarios were analysed, one involving a more conservative business-as-usual (BAU assumption and second with a high probability of desert-to-cropland transition (Green Nile to assess a broad range of potential outcomes by 2050. Results The results reveal a difference of 82,000 sq km in potential An. arabiensis range between the BAU and Green Nile scenarios. The BAU scenario revealed a highly fragmented set of small, potential habitat patches separated by relatively large distances (maximum distance = 64.02 km, mean = 12.72 km, SD = 9.92, while the Green Nile scenario produced a landscape characterized by large patches separated by relatively shorter gaps (maximum distance = 49.38, km, mean = 4.51 km, SD = 7.89 that may be bridged by the vector. Conclusions This study provides a first demonstration of how land change and species distribution models may be linked to project potential changes in vector habitat distribution and invasion potential. While gaps between potential habitat patches remained large in the

  10. A broad model for demand forecasting of gasoline and fuel alcohol; Um modelo abrangente para a projecao das demandas de gasolina e alcool carburante

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buonfiglio, Antonio [PETROBRAS, Paulinia, SP (Brazil). Dept. Industrial; Bajay, Sergio Valdir [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica

    1991-12-31

    Formulating a broad, mixed: econometric/end-use, demand forecasting model for gasoline and fuel alcohol is the main objective of this work. In the model, the gasoline and hydrated alcohol demands are calculated as the corresponding products if their fleet by the average car mileage, divided by the average specific mileage. Several simulations with the proposed forecasting model are carried out, within the context of alternative scenarios for the development of these competing fuels in the Brazilian market. (author) 4 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

  11. Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model for coupling with Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; West, Tris O.; Link, Robert; Patel, Pralit

    2016-09-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used to project future societal and environmental scenarios, based on economic modeling and on a detailed representation of food and energy production systems. The terrestrial module in GCAM represents agricultural activities and ecosystems dynamics at the subregional scale, and must be downscaled to be used for impact assessments in gridded models (e.g., climate models). In this study, we present the downscaling algorithm of the GCAM model, which generates gridded time series of global land use and land cover (LULC) from any GCAM scenario. The downscaling is based on a number of user-defined rules and drivers, including transition priorities (e.g., crop expansion preferentially into grasslands rather than forests) and spatial constraints (e.g., nutrient availability). The default parameterization is evaluated using historical LULC change data, and a sensitivity experiment provides insights on the most critical parameters and how their influence changes regionally and in time. Finally, a reference scenario and a climate mitigation scenario are downscaled to illustrate the gridded land use outcomes of different policies on agricultural expansion and forest management. Several features of the downscaling can be modified by providing new input data or changing the parameterization, without any edits to the code. Those features include spatial resolution as well as the number and type of land classes being downscaled, thereby providing flexibility to adapt GCAM LULC scenarios to the requirements of a wide range of models and applications. The downscaling system is version controlled and freely available.

  12. Magnesium alloy covered stent for treatment of a lateral aneurysm model in rabbit common carotid artery: An in vivo study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wu; Wang, Yong-Li; Chen, Mo; Chen, Liang; Zhang, Jian; Li, Yong-Dong; Li, Ming-Hua; Yuan, Guang-Yin

    2016-11-01

    Magnesium alloy covered stents have rarely been used in the common carotid artery (CCA). We evaluated the long-term efficacy of magnesium alloy covered stents in a lateral aneurysm model in rabbit CCA. Magnesium alloy covered stents (group A, n = 7) or Willis covered stents (group B, n = 5) were inserted in 12 New Zealand White rabbits and they were followed up for 12 months. The long-term feasibility for aneurysm occlusion was studied through angiograms; the changes in vessel area and lumen area were assessed with IVUS. Complete aneurysmal occlusion was achieved in all aneurysms. Angiography showed that the diameter of the stented CCA in group A at 6 and 12 months was significantly greater than the diameter immediately after stent placement. On intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) examination, the mean lumen area of the stented CCA in group A was significantly greater at 6 and 12 months than that immediately after stent placement; the mean lumen area was also significantly greater in group A than in group B at the same time points. The magnesium alloy covered stents proved to be an effective approach for occlusion of lateral aneurysm in the rabbit CCA; it provides distinct advantages that are comparable to that obtained with the Willis covered stent.

  13. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  14. Land Cover

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Land Cover database depicts 10 general land cover classes for the State of Kansas. The database was compiled from a digital classification of Landsat Thematic...

  15. Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L; Sayler, Kristi L; Bouchard, Michelle A; Reker, Ryan R; Friesz, Aaron M; Bennett, Stacie L; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Sleeter, Rachel R; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Chris; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

    2014-07-01

    Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both the proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting had relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less forest cutting. Stand ages differed substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand-age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

  16. Mapping CORINE Land Cover from Sentinel-1A SAR and SRTM Digital Elevation Model Data using Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Balzter

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The European CORINE land cover mapping scheme is a standardized classification system with 44 land cover and land use classes. It is used by the European Environment Agency to report large-scale land cover change with a minimum mapping unit of 5 ha every six years and operationally mapped by its member states. The most commonly applied method to map CORINE land cover change is by visual interpretation of optical/near-infrared satellite imagery. The Sentinel-1A satellite carries a C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and was launched in 2014 by the European Space Agency as the first operational Copernicus mission. This study is the first investigation of Sentinel-1A for CORINE land cover mapping. Two of the first Sentinel-1A images acquired during its ramp-up phase in May and December 2014 over Thuringia in Germany are analysed. 27 hybrid level 2/3 CORINE classes are defined. 17 of these were present at the study site and classified based on a stratified random sample of training pixels from the polygon-eroded CORINE 2006 map. Sentinel-1A logarithmic radar backscatter at HH and HV polarisation (May acquisition, VV and VH polarisation (December acquisition, and the HH image texture are used as input bands to the classification. In addition, a Digital Terrain Model (DTM, a Canopy Height Model (CHM and slope and aspect maps from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM are used as input bands to account for geomorphological features of the landscape. In future, elevation data will be delivered for areas with sufficiently high coherence from the Sentinel-1A Interferometric Wide-Swath Mode itself. When augmented by elevation data from radar interferometry, Sentinel-1A is able to discriminate several CORINE land cover classes, making it useful for monitoring of cloud-covered regions. A bistatic Sentinel-1 Convoy mission would enable single-pass interferometric acquisitions without temporal decorrelation.

  17. [Advance in researches on vegetation cover and management factor in the soil erosion prediction model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Jianping; Liu, Baoyuan

    2002-08-01

    Vegetation cover and land management are the main limiting factors of soil erosion, and quantitative evaluation on the effect of different vegetation on soil erosion is essential to land use and soil conservation planning. The vegetation cover and management factor (C) in the universal soil loss equation (USLE) is an index to evaluate this effect, which has been studied deeply and used widely. However, the C factor study is insufficient in China. In order to strengthen the research of C factor, this paper reviewed the developing progress of C factor, and compared the methods of estimating C value in different USLE versions. The relative studies in China were also summarized from the aspects of vegetation canopy coverage, soil surface cover, and root density. Three problems in C factor study were pointed out. The authors suggested that cropland C factor research should be furthered, and its methodology should be unified in China to represent reliable C values for soil loss prediction and conservation planning.

  18. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A.; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms

  19. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, R.; Alexander, P.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Eitelberg, D.A.; Engström, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Jain, A. K.; Krisztin, T.; Kyle, P.; Meiyappan, P.; Popp, A.; Sands, R.D.; Schaldach, R.; Schüngel, J.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.; Meijl, van H.; Vliet, van J.; Verburg, P.H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy.These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms o

  20. Clear-sky stable boundary layers with low winds over snow-covered surfaces Part I: A WRF model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, H.A.M.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Vihma, T.; Anderson, P.S.; Bosveld, F.C.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we evaluated the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model for stable conditions at clear skies with low wind speeds. Three contrasting terrains with snow covered surfaces are considered, namely Cabauw (Netherlands, snow over grass), Sodankylä (Finland, snow

  1. A broad scope knowledge based model for optimization of VMAT in esophageal cancer: validation and assessment of plan quality among different treatment centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogliata, Antonella; Nicolini, Giorgia; Clivio, Alessandro; Vanetti, Eugenio; Laksar, Sarbani; Tozzi, Angelo; Scorsetti, Marta; Cozzi, Luca

    2015-10-31

    To evaluate the performance of a broad scope model-based optimisation process for volumetric modulated arc therapy applied to esophageal cancer. A set of 70 previously treated patients in two different institutions, were selected to train a model for the prediction of dose-volume constraints. The model was built with a broad-scope purpose, aiming to be effective for different dose prescriptions and tumour localisations. It was validated on three groups of patients from the same institution and from another clinic not providing patients for the training phase. Comparison of the automated plans was done against reference cases given by the clinically accepted plans. Quantitative improvements (statistically significant for the majority of the analysed dose-volume parameters) were observed between the benchmark and the test plans. Of 624 dose-volume objectives assessed for plan evaluation, in 21 cases (3.3 %) the reference plans failed to respect the constraints while the model-based plans succeeded. Only in 3 cases (<0.5 %) the reference plans passed the criteria while the model-based failed. In 5.3 % of the cases both groups of plans failed and in the remaining cases both passed the tests. Plans were optimised using a broad scope knowledge-based model to determine the dose-volume constraints. The results showed dosimetric improvements when compared to the benchmark data. Particularly the plans optimised for patients from the third centre, not participating to the training, resulted in superior quality. The data suggests that the new engine is reliable and could encourage its application to clinical practice.

  2. A MODELING APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING WATERSHED IMPERVIOUS SURFACE AREA FROM NATIONAL LAND COVER DATA 92

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used National Land Cover Data 92 (NLCD92), vector impervious surface data, and raster GIS overlay methods to derive impervious surface coefficients per NLCD92 class in portions of the Nfid-Atlantic physiographic region. The methods involve a vector to raster conversion of the ...

  3. Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pielke sr., R.A.; Pitman, A.; Niyogi, D.; Mahmood, R.; McAlpine, C.; Hossain, F.; Kabat, P.

    2011-01-01

    Agreat deal of attention is devoted to changes in atmospheric composition and the associated regional responses. Less attention is given to the direct influence by human activity on regional climate caused by modification of the atmosphere’s lower boundary—the Earth’s surface. Land use/land cover ch

  4. A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

  5. An air pollution modeling study using three surface coverings near the New International Airport of Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jazcilevich, Arón D; García, Agustín R; Ruiz-Suárez, Luis-Gerardo

    2003-10-01

    The dry lakebed of what once was the lake of Texcoco is the location selected for the New International Airport of Mexico City. This project will generate an important urban development near the airport with regional implications on air quality. Using a prognostic air quality model, the consequences of photochemical air pollution in the metropolitan area of Mexico City resulting from three possible coverings for the areas of the lakebed that are not occupied by the runway and terminal building are investigated. These coverings are desert, grassland, and water and occupy an area of 63 km2. This study is based on a representative high pollution episode. In addition to reducing the emission of primary natural particles, the water covering generates a land-water breeze capable of maintaining enough ventilation to reduce pollutant concentrations over a localized region of the metropolitan area and may enhance the wind speed on the coasts of the proposed lake.

  6. Evaluation of Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Simulated Land Use/Cover in China Using a Probabilistic Cellular Automata-Markov Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xu; YU Shi-Xiao; ZHANG Ya-Ping

    2013-01-01

    Using the fuzzy rule-based classification method,normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images acquired from 1982 to 1998 were classified into seventeen phases.Based on these classification images,a probabilistic cellular automata-Markov Chain model was developed and used to simulate a land cover scenario of China for the year 2014.Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover in China from 1982 to 2014 were then analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that the change trends of land cover type from 1998 to 2014 would be contrary to those from 1982 to 1998.In particular,forestland and grassland areas decreased by 1.56% and 1.46%,respectively,from 1982 to 1998,and should increase by 1.5% and 2.3% from 1998 to 2014,respectively.

  7. How well do we characterize the biophysical effects of vegetation cover change? Benchmarking land surface models against satellite observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Forzieri, Giovanni; Robertson, Eddy; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Changes in vegetation cover can affect the climate by altering the carbon, water and energy cycles. The main tools to characterize such land-climate interactions for both the past and future are land surface models (LSMs) that can be embedded in larger Earth System models (ESMs). While such models have long been used to characterize the biogeochemical effects of vegetation cover change, their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remains unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. The result of competing biophysical processes on the surface energy balance varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation change and on the background climate (e.g. presence of snow or soil moisture). Here we present a global scale benchmarking exercise of four of the most commonly used LSMs (JULES, ORCHIDEE, JSBACH and CLM) against a dedicated dataset of satellite observations. To facilitate the understanding of the causes that lead to discrepancies between simulated and observed data, we focus on pure transitions amongst major plant functional types (PFTs): from different tree types (evergreen broadleaf trees, deciduous broadleaf trees and needleleaf trees) to either grasslands or crops. From the modelling perspective, this entails generating a separate simulation for each PFT in which all 1° by 1° grid cells are uniformly covered with that PFT, and then analysing the differences amongst them in terms of resulting biophysical variables (e.g net radiation, latent and sensible heat). From the satellite perspective, the effect of pure transitions is obtained by unmixing the signal of different 0.05° spatial resolution MODIS products (albedo, latent heat, upwelling longwave radiation) over a local moving window using PFT maps derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative land cover map. After aggregating to a common spatial support, the observation and model-driven datasets are confronted and

  8. Modeling the effects of vegetation on methane oxidation and emissions through soil landfill final covers across different climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abichou, Tarek; Kormi, Tarek; Yuan, Lei; Johnson, Terry; Francisco, Escobar

    2015-02-01

    Plant roots are reported to enhance the aeration of soil by creating secondary macropores which improve the diffusion of oxygen into soil as well as the supply of methane to bacteria. Therefore, methane oxidation can be improved considerably by the soil structuring processes of vegetation, along with the increase of organic biomass in the soil associated with plant roots. This study consisted of using a numerical model that combines flow of water and heat with gas transport and oxidation in soils, to simulate methane emission and oxidation through simulated vegetated and non-vegetated landfill covers under different climatic conditions. Different simulations were performed using different methane loading flux (5-200 g m(-2) d(-1)) as the bottom boundary. The lowest modeled surface emissions were always obtained with vegetated soil covers for all simulated climates. The largest differences in simulated surface emissions between the vegetated and non-vegetated scenarios occur during the growing season. Higher average yearly percent oxidation was obtained in simulations with vegetated soil covers as compared to non-vegetated scenario. The modeled effects of vegetation on methane surface emissions and percent oxidation were attributed to two separate mechanisms: (1) increase in methane oxidation associated with the change of the physical properties of the upper vegetative layer and (2) increase in organic matter associated with vegetated soil layers. Finally, correlations between percent oxidation and methane loading into simulated vegetated and non-vegetated covers were proposed to allow decision makers to compare vegetated versus non-vegetated soil landfill covers. These results were obtained using a modeling study with several simplifying assumptions that do not capture the complexities of vegetated soils under field conditions.

  9. Debris-covered energy balance model for Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier in the Everest region of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Rounce

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Debris thickness plays an important role in regulating ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers as well as controlling the likely size and location of supraglacial lakes. Despite its importance, lack of knowledge about debris properties and associated energy fluxes prevents the robust inclusion of the effects of a debris layer into most glacier surface energy balance models. This study combines fieldwork with a debris-covered energy balance model to estimate debris temperatures and ablation rates on Imja-Lhotse Shar glacier located in the Everest region of Nepal. The debris properties that significantly influence the energy balance model are thermal conductivity, albedo, and surface roughness. Fieldwork was conducted to measure thermal conductivity and a method was developed using Structure from Motion to estimate surface roughness. Debris temperatures measured during the 2014 melt season were used to calibrate and validate a debris-covered energy balance model by optimizing the albedo, thermal conductivity, and surface roughness at 10 debris-covered sites. Furthermore, three methods for estimating the latent heat flux were investigated. Model calibration and validation found the three methods had similar performance; however, comparison of modeled and measured ablation rates revealed that assuming a zero latent heat flux may overestimate ablation. Results also suggest that where debris moisture is unknown, measurements of the relative humidity or precipitation may be used to estimate wet debris periods, i.e., the latent heat flux is non-zero. The effect of temporal resolution on the model was also assessed and results showed that both 6 h data and daily average data slightly underestimate debris temperatures and ablation rates, thus these should only be used to estimate rough ablation rates when no other data are available.

  10. The 2010 Broad Prize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Digest: Essential Readings Condensed for Quick Review, 2011

    2011-01-01

    A new data analysis, based on data collected as part of The Broad Prize process, provides insights into which large urban school districts in the United States are doing the best job of educating traditionally disadvantaged groups: African-American, Hispanics, and low-income students. Since 2002, The Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation has awarded The…

  11. The 2010 Broad Prize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Digest: Essential Readings Condensed for Quick Review, 2011

    2011-01-01

    A new data analysis, based on data collected as part of The Broad Prize process, provides insights into which large urban school districts in the United States are doing the best job of educating traditionally disadvantaged groups: African-American, Hispanics, and low-income students. Since 2002, The Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation has awarded The…

  12. Application of the probability-based covering algorithm model in text classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU; Ying

    2009-01-01

    The probability-based covering algorithm(PBCA)is a new algorithm based on probability distribution.It decides,by voting,the class of the tested samples on the border of the coverage area,based on the probability of training samples.When using the original covering algorithm(CA),many tested samples that are located on the border of the coverage cannot be classified by the spherical neighborhood gained.The network structure of PBCA is a mixed structure composed of both a feed-forward network and a feedback network.By using this method of adding some heterogeneous samples and enlarging the coverage radius,it is possible to decrease the number of rejected samples and improve the rate of recognition accuracy.Relevant computer experiments indicate that the algorithm improves the study precision and achieves reasonably good results in text classification.

  13. Modelling soil moisture under different land covers in a sub-humid environment of Western Ghats, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B Venkatesh; Lakshman Nandagiri; B K Purandara; V B Reddy

    2011-06-01

    The objective of this study is to apply and test a simple parametric water balance model for prediction of soil moisture regime in the presence of vegetation. The intention was to evaluate the differences in model parameterization and performance when applied to small watersheds under three different types of land covers (Acacia, degraded forest and natural forest). The watersheds selected for this purpose are located in the sub-humid climate within the Western Ghats, Karnataka, India. Model calibration and validation were performed using a dataset comprising depth-averaged soil moisture content measurements made at weekly time steps from October 2004 to December 2008. In addition to this, a sensitivity analysis was carried out with respect to the water-holding capacity of the soils with the aim of explaining the suitability and adaptation of exotic vegetation types under the prevailing climatic conditions. Results indicated reasonably good performance of the model in simulating the pattern and magnitude of weekly average soil moisture content in 150 cm deep soil layer under all three land covers. This study demonstrates that a simple, robust and parametrically parsimonious model is capable of simulating the temporal dynamics of soil moisture content under distinctly different land covers. Also, results of sensitivity analysis revealed that exotic plant species such as Acacia have adapted themselves effectively to the local climate.

  14. Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing

    2016-09-01

    Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

  15. The impact of land-cover modification on the June meteorology of China since 1700, simulated using a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, H.; Pitman, A.J.; Zhao, M.; Leemans, R.

    2003-01-01

    A series of simulations was conducted using a regional climate model with a domain covering mainland China. Simulations were conducted for a single June using estimated land cover for 1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The conversion of land cover between these periods was extensive

  16. Impact Assessment of Mikania Micrantha on Land Cover and Maxent Modeling to Predict its Potential Invasion Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidar, T.; Shrestha, A. B.; Ranjit, R.; Adhikari, R.; Ghimire, S.; Shrestha, N.

    2017-05-01

    Mikania micrantha is one of the major invasive alien plant species in tropical moist forest regions of Asia including Nepal. Recently, this weed is spreading at an alarming rate in Chitwan National Park (CNP) and threatening biodiversity. This paper aims to assess the impacts of Mikania micrantha on different land cover and to predict potential invasion sites in CNP using Maxent model. Primary data for this were presence point coordinates and perceived Mikania micrantha cover collected through systematic random sampling technique. Rapideye image, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission data and bioclimatic variables were acquired as secondary data. Mikania micrantha distribution maps were prepared by overlaying the presence points on image classified by object based image analysis. The overall accuracy of classification was 90 % with Kappa coefficient 0.848. A table depicting the number of sample points in each land cover with respective Mikania micrantha coverage was extracted from the distribution maps to show the impact. The riverine forest was found to be the most affected land cover with 85.98 % presence points and sal forest was found to be very less affected with only 17.02 % presence points. Maxent modeling predicted the areas near the river valley as the potential invasion sites with statistically significant Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) value of 0.969. Maximum temperature of warmest month and annual precipitation were identified as the predictor variables that contribute the most to Mikania micrantha's potential distribution.

  17. Accounting rigid support at the border in a mixed model the finite element method in problems of ice cover destruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Knyazkov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the force to damage the ice covers is necessary for estimation of icebreaking capability of vessels, as well as of hull strength of icebreakers, and navigation of ships in ice conditions. On the other hand, the use of ice cover support to arrange construction works from the ice is also of practical interest.By the present moment a great deal of investigations of ice cover deformation have been carried out to result, usually, in approximate calculations formula which was obtained after making a variety of assumptions. Nevertheless, we believe that it is possible to make further improvement in calculations. Application numerical methods, and, for example, FEM, makes possible to avoid numerous drawbacks of analytical methods dealing with both complex boundaries and load application areas and other problem peculiarities.The article considers an application of mixed models of FEM for investigating ice cover deformation. A simple flexible triangle element of mixed type was taken to solve this problem. Vector of generalized coordinates of the element contains apices flexures and normal bending moments in the middle of its sides. Compared to other elements mixed models easily satisfy compatibility requirements on the boundary of adjacent elements and do not require numerical displacement differentiation to define bending moments, because bending moments are included in vector of element generalized coordinates.The method of account of rigid support plate is proposed. The resulting ratio, taking into account the "stiffening", reduces the number of resolving systems of equations by the number of elements on the plate contour.To evaluate further the results the numerical realization of ice cover stress-strained problem it becomes necessary and correct to check whether calculation results correspond to accurate solution. Using an example of circular plate the convergence of numerical solutions to analytical solutions is showed.The article

  18. Quantifying the effect of lichen and bryophyte cover on permafrost soil within a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Vegetation near the surface, such as bryophytes and lichens, has an insulating effect on the soil at high latitudes and it can therefore protect permafrost conditions. Warming due to climate change, however, may change the average surface coverage of bryophytes and lichens. This can result in permafrost thawing associated with a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere, which may lead to a positive feedback on atmospheric CO2. Thus, it is important to predict how the bryophyte and lichen cover at high latitudes will react to environmental change. However, current global land surface models so far contain mostly empirical approaches to represent bryophytes and lichens, which makes it impractical to predict their future state and function. For this reason, we integrate a process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH. We explicitly represent dynamic thermal properties of the bryophyte and lichen cover and their relation to climate. Subsequently, we compare simulations with and without bryophyte and lichen cover to quantify the insulating effect. We estimate an annual average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K on topsoil temperature for the northern high latitudes under current climate. Locally, the cooling may reach up to 5.7 K. Moreover, we show that neglecting dynamic properties of the bryophyte and lichen cover by using a simple, empirical scheme only results in an average cooling of around 0.5 K. This suggests that bryophytes and lichens have a significant impact on soil temperature in high-latitude ecosystems and also that a process-based description of their thermal properties is necessary for a realistic representation of the cooling effect.

  19. Broad band shock associated noise predictions in axisymmetric and asymmetric jets using an improved turbulence scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalyan, Anuroopa; Karabasov, Sergey A.

    2017-04-01

    Supersonic jets that are subject to off-design operating conditions are marked by three distinct regions in their far-field spectra: mixing noise, screech and Broadband Shock Associated Noise (BBSAN). BBSAN is conspicuous by the prominent multiple peaks. The Morris and Miller BBSAN model that is based on an acoustic analogy, offering a straightforward implementation for RANS, forms the foundation of the present work. The analogy model robustly captures the peak frequency noise, that occurs near Strouhal number of about 1, based on the nozzle exit diameter but leads to major sound under prediction for higher frequencies. In the jet mixing noise literature, it has been shown that an inclusion of frequency dependence into the characteristic length and temporal scales of the effective noise sources improves the far-field noise predictions. In the present paper, several modifications of the original Morris and Miller model are considered that incorporate the frequency dependent scales as recommended in the jet mixing noise literature. In addition to these, a new mixed scale model is proposed that incorporates a correlation scale that depends both on the mean-flow velocity gradient and the standard mixing noise-type scaling based on the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy. In comparison with the original Morris and Miller model, the mixed scale model shows considerable improvements in the noise predictions for the benchmark axisymmetric convergent-divergent and convergent jets. Further to this validation, the new model has been applied for improved predictions for elliptic jets of various eccentricity. It has been shown that, for the same thrust conditions, the elliptical nozzles lead to noise reduction at the source in comparison with the baseline axisymmetric jets.

  20. Modelling high arctic percent vegetation cover using field digital images and high resolution satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Nanfeng; Treitz, Paul

    2016-10-01

    In this study, digital images collected at a study site in the Canadian High Arctic were processed and classified to examine the spatial-temporal patterns of percent vegetation cover (PVC). To obtain the PVC of different plant functional groups (i.e., forbs, graminoids/sedges and mosses), field near infrared-green-blue (NGB) digital images were classified using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. The PVC analyses comparing different vegetation types confirmed: (i) the polar semi-desert exhibited the lowest PVC with a large proportion of bare soil/rock cover; (ii) the mesic tundra cover consisted of approximately 60% mosses; and (iii) the wet sedge consisted almost exclusively of graminoids and sedges. As expected, the PVC and green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI; (RNIR - RGreen)/(RNIR + RGreen)), derived from field NGB digital images, increased during the summer growing season for each vegetation type: i.e., ∼5% (0.01) for polar semi-desert; ∼10% (0.04) for mesic tundra; and ∼12% (0.03) for wet sedge respectively. PVC derived from field images was found to be strongly correlated with WorldView-2 derived normalized difference spectral indices (NDSI; (Rx - Ry)/(Rx + Ry)), where Rx is the reflectance of the red edge (724.1 nm) or near infrared (832.9 nm and 949.3 nm) bands; Ry is the reflectance of the yellow (607.7 nm) or red (658.8 nm) bands with R2's ranging from 0.74 to 0.81. NDSIs that incorporated the yellow band (607.7 nm) performed slightly better than the NDSIs without, indicating that this band may be more useful for investigating Arctic vegetation that often includes large proportions of senescent vegetation throughout the growing season.

  1. Spectral unmixing model to assess land cover fractions in Mongolian steppe regions

    OpenAIRE

    Byambakhuu, Ishgaldan; Sugita, Michiaki; Matsushima, Dai

    2010-01-01

    The land cover fractions (LCFs) and spectral reflectance of photosynthetic vegetation (PV), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and bare soil were measured at 58 sites in semi-arid and arid regions of Mongolia in the summers of 2005 and 2006. These data sets allowed a detailed assessment of the impact of measurement geometry as represented by the solar zenith angle θs, sensor view zenith angle θv and azimuth view angle phi in the estimation of LCF values by means of the spectral unmixing mo...

  2. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF DISTANCE MEASURES IN PROPOSED FUZZY TEXTURE MODEL FOR LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION OF REMOTELY SENSED IMAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jenicka

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Land cover classification is a vital application area in satellite image processing domain. Texture is a useful feature in land cover classification. The classification accuracy obtained always depends on the effectiveness of the texture model, distance measure and classification algorithm used. In this work, texture features are extracted using the proposed multivariate descriptor, MFTM/MVAR that uses Multivariate Fuzzy Texture Model (MFTM supplemented with Multivariate Variance (MVAR. The K_Nearest Neighbour (KNN algorithm is used for classification due to its simplicity coupled with efficiency. The distance measures such as Log likelihood, Manhattan, Chi squared, Kullback Leibler and Bhattacharyya were used and the experiments were conducted on IRS P6 LISS-IV data. The classified images were evaluated based on error matrix, classification accuracy and Kappa statistics. From the experiments, it is found that log likelihood distance with MFTM/MVAR descriptor and KNN classifier gives 95.29% classification accuracy.

  3. Model dielectric function analysis of the critical point features of silicon nanocrystal films in a broad parameter range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agocs, Emil, E-mail: agocsemil@gmail.com [Doctoral School of Molecular and Nanotechnologies, Faculty of Information Technology, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u.10, Veszprém, H-8200 (Hungary); Research Institute for Technical Physics and Material Science (MFA), Research Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, POB 49 (Hungary); Nassiopoulou, Androula G. [IMEL/NCSR Demokritos, Aghia Paraskevi, 153 10 Athens (Greece); Milita, Silvia [CNR-IMM Sezione Bologna, Via Gobetti, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Petrik, Peter [Doctoral School of Molecular and Nanotechnologies, Faculty of Information Technology, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u.10, Veszprém, H-8200 (Hungary); Research Institute for Technical Physics and Material Science (MFA), Research Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, POB 49 (Hungary)

    2013-08-31

    Due to quantum-confinement the band structure of silicon nanocrystals (NCs) is different from that of bulk silicon and strongly depends on the NC size. The samples we investigated have been prepared using chemical vapor deposition and annealing allowing a good control of the parameters in terms of both thickness and NC size, being suitable as model systems. The problem of the analysis is that the critical point features of the dielectric function can only be described with acceptable accuracy when using numerous parameters. The majority of the fit parameters are describing the oscillators of different line-shapes. In this work we show how the number of fit parameters can be reduced by a systematic analysis to find non-sensitive and correlating parameters to fix and couple as much parameters as possible. - Highlights: ► Silicon nanocrystal films were measured by spectroscopic ellipsometry. ► The dielectric functions were modeled with Adachi's model dielectric function. ► We developed a parameter analysis and fitting algorithm. ► The non-sensitive parameters were coupled and neglected. ► The behaviors of key material parameters were determined.

  4. The Cycles of Snow Cover in Pyrenees Mountain and Mont Lebanon Analyzed Using the Global Modeling Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drapeau, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Le Jean, F.; Gascoin, S.; Jarlan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The global modeling technique provides a way to obtain ordinary differential equations from single time series1. This technique, initiated in the 1990s, could be applied successfully to numerous theoretic and experimental systems. More recently it could be applied to environmental systems2,3. Here this technique is applied to seasonal snow cover area in the Pyrenees mountain (Europe) and Mont Lebanon (Mediterranean region). The snowpack evolution is complex because it results from combination of processes driven by physiography (elevation, slope, land cover...) and meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed...), which are highly heterogeneous in such regions. Satellite observations in visible bands offer a powerful tool to monitor snow cover areas at global scale, with large resolutions range. Although this observable does not directly inform about snow water equivalent, its dynamical behavior strongly relies on it. Therefore, snow cover area is likely to be a good proxy of the global dynamics and global modeling technique a well adapted approach. The MOD10A2 product (500m) generated from MODIS by the NASA is used after a pretreatment is applied to minimize clouds effect. The global modeling technique is then applied using two packages4,5. The analysis is performed with two time series for the whole period (2000-2012) and year by year. Low-dimensional chaotic models are obtained in many cases. Such models provide a strong argument for chaos since involving the two necessary conditions in a synthetic way: determinism and strong sensitivity to initial conditions. The models comparison suggests important non-stationnarities at interannual scale which prevent from detecting long term changes. 1: Letellier et al 2009. Frequently asked questions about global modeling, Chaos, 19, 023103. 2: Maquet et al 2007. Global models from the Canadian lynx cycles as a direct evidence for chaos in real ecosystems. J. of Mathematical Biology, 55 (1), 21-39 3

  5. Assessing Disagreement and Tolerance of Misclassification of Satellite-derived Land Cover Products Used in WRF Model Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Hao; JIA Gensuo

    2013-01-01

    As more satellite-derived land cover products used in the study of global change,especially climate modeling,assessing their quality has become vitally important.In this study,we developed a distance metric based on the parameters used in weather research and forecasting (WRF) to characterize the degree of disagreement among land cover products and to identify the tolerance for misclassification within the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) classification scheme.We determined the spatial degree of disagreement and then created maps of misclassification of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) products,and we calculated overall and class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in a WRF model.Our results show a high level of agreement and high tolerance of misclassification in the WRF model between large-scale homogeneous landscapes,while a low level of agreement and tolerance of misclassification appeared in heterogeneous landscapes.The degree of disagreement varied significantly among seven regions of China.The class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in MODIS Collection 4 and 5 products varied significantly.High accuracy and fuzzy agreement occurred in the following classes:water,grassland,cropland,and barren or sparsely vegetated.Misclassification mainly occurred among specific classes with similar plant functional types and low discriminative spectro-temporal signals.Some classes need to be improved further; the quality of MODIS land cover products across China still does not meet the common requirements of climate modeling.Our findings may have important implications for improving land surface parameterization for simulating climate and for better understanding the influence of the land cover change on climate.

  6. Satellite-Supported Modeling of the Relationships between Urban Heat Island and Land Use/Cover Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahmani, P.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.

    2015-12-01

    Reliable assessment of the primary causes of urban heat island (UHI) and the efficiency of various heat mitigation strategies requires accurate prediction of urban temperatures and realistic representation of land surface physical characteristics in models. In this study, we expand the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) by implementing high-resolution real-time satellite observations of green vegetation fraction (GVF), leaf area index (LAI), and albedo. We use MODIS-based GVF, LAI, and albedo to replace constant values that are assumed for urban pixels and climatological values that are used for non-urban pixels in the default WRF-UCM. Utilizing the improved model, summertime climate of Los Angeles is simulated over the span of three years (2010-2012). Next, thermal sensitivity of urban climate to anthropogenic land use/cover is assessed via replacing current urban cover with pre-development vegetation cover, consisting of shrubland and grassland. Surrounding undeveloped areas and inverse distance weighting method are utilized to estimate GVF and LAI of pre-development vegetation cover. Our analysis of diurnal and nocturnal surface and air temperatures shows cooling effects of urbanization in neighborhoods with high fractions of irrigated vegetation. However, urban warming is consistently detected over industrial/commercial and high-intensity residential areas. In addition to well-known mechanisms such as a shift in surface energy partitioning, high heat storage in urban material, and inefficiency of urban surfaces in transferring convective heat from the surface to the boundary layer, our results show decreased wind speed and sea breeze also contribute to the UHI intensity. We further evaluate the interactions between UHI and replacing irrigated and imported vegetation with non-irrigated native vegetation as a water conservation strategy in water-stressed Los Angeles metropolitan area.

  7. Modelling of thermal emissivity of covered bulk explosive materials in the THz range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciurapinski, Wieslaw M.; Szustakowski, Mieczyslaw; Palka, Norbert; Zyczkowski, Marek; Ryniec, Radoslaw; Piszczek, Marek; Zagrajek, Pzemyslaw

    2009-09-01

    Detection and recognition of covered explosive materials in the THz range can be devided into two areas - passive and active systems. Passive systems in the submilimeter (100÷300 GHz) as well as the terahertz (0.3÷3 THz) range base on thermal emissivity of exemined bodies. Such devices are designed to control persons and baggage in airports mainly at the temperature about 300K. Thermal emissivity of real bodies can be obtained from the Planck's formula for perfect black bodies and an emissvity coefficient. The emissivity coefficient of the real bodies can be determined from laboratory measurements of spectral transmission and reflection for the specific materials. However, values of the thermal emissivity detected in real cases depend strongly on surface of the material, direction of detection in relation to normal to the emitting surface, atmosphere and covering materials. These factors introduce attenuation of the emissivity what can cause camouflage of the characteristic features of individual materials and makes them difficult to identify. In this paper we present the value of the emissivity of hexogen (RDX) based on transmission measurements in FTIR spectrometer. The obtained emissivity is used to simulate intensity of radiation on an aperture.

  8. A current precipitation index-based model for continuous daily runoff simulation in seasonally snow covered sub-arctic catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanegbu, Justice O.; Marttila, Hannu; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Kløve, Bjørn

    2017-02-01

    A new precipitation index-based model, which includes a snow accumulation and melt component, has been developed to simulate hydrology in high latitude catchments. The model couples a point snowmelt model with a current precipitation index (CPI) formulation to simulate continuous daily runoff from catchments with seasonal snow cover. A new runoff conversion factor: CT and Lf, threshold flow factor ThQ and runoff transformation function Maxbas were introduced into the CPI equation, which converts and transforms the routed daily CPI into daily runoff and maintains the daily base flow in the catchment. The model was developed using twelve sub-arctic boreal catchments located above and below the Arctic Circle in northern Finland, representing a region with considerable seasonal snow cover. The results showed that the model can adequately simulate and produce the dynamics of daily runoff from catchments where the underlying physical conditions are not known. An open-access Excel-based model is provided with this paper for daily runoff simulations. The model can be used to estimate runoff in sub-arctic regions where little data is typically available but significant changes in climate are expected, with considerable shifts in the amount and timing of snowmelt and runoff.

  9. Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, John; Kang, Sinkyu

    2003-01-01

    The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

  10. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF LIDAR-DERIVED DIGITAL TERRAIN MODEL (DTM WITH DIFFERENT SLOPE AND CANOPY COVER IN TROPICAL FOREST REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. M. Salleh

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR technology has been widely used recent years especially in generating high accuracy of Digital Terrain Model (DTM. High density and good quality of airborne LiDAR data promises a high quality of DTM. This study focussing on the analysing the error associated with the density of vegetation cover (canopy cover and terrain slope in a LiDAR derived-DTM value in a tropical forest environment in Bentong, State of Pahang, Malaysia. Airborne LiDAR data were collected can be consider as low density captured by Reigl system mounted on an aircraft. The ground filtering procedure use adaptive triangulation irregular network (ATIN algorithm technique in producing ground points. Next, the ground control points (GCPs used in generating the reference DTM and these DTM was used for slope classification and the point clouds belong to non-ground are then used in determining the relative percentage of canopy cover. The results show that terrain slope has high correlation for both study area (0.993 and 0.870 with the RMSE of the LiDAR-derived DTM. This is similar to canopy cover where high value of correlation (0.989 and 0.924 obtained. This indicates that the accuracy of airborne LiDAR-derived DTM is significantly affected by terrain slope and canopy caver of study area.

  11. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bazigha Badar; Shakil A Romshoo; M A Khan

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modeling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, \\texttit {inter-alia}, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

  12. Redesign of genetically encoded biosensors for monitoring mitochondrial redox status in a broad range of model eukaryotes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Simone C; Sobotta, Mirko C; Bausewein, Daniela; Aller, Isabel; Hell, Rüdiger; Dick, Tobias P; Meyer, Andreas J

    2014-03-01

    The development of genetically encoded redox biosensors has paved the way toward chemically specific, quantitative, dynamic, and compartment-specific redox measurements in cells and organisms. In particular, redox-sensitive green fluorescent proteins (roGFPs) have attracted major interest as tools to monitor biological redox changes in real time and in vivo. Most recently, the engineering of a redox relay that combines glutaredoxin (Grx) with roGFP2 as a translational fusion (Grx1-roGFP2) led to a biosensor for the glutathione redox potential (EGSH ). The expression of this probe in mitochondria is of particular interest as mitochondria are the major source of oxidants, and their redox status is closely connected to cell fate decisions. While Grx1-roGFP2 can be expressed in mammalian mitochondria, it fails to enter mitochondria in various nonmammalian model organisms. Here we report that inversion of domain order from Grx1-roGFP2 to roGFP2-Grx1 yields a biosensor with perfect mitochondrial targeting while fully maintaining its biosensor capabilities. The redesigned probe thus allows extending in vivo observations of mitochondrial redox homeostasis to important nonmammalian model organisms, particularly plants and insects.

  13. Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta—where SLR may be attenuated—and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future

  14. Characterization of Disopyramide derivative ADD424042 as a non-cardiotoxic neuronal sodium channel blocker with broad-spectrum anticonvulsant activity in rodent seizure models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Król, Marek; Ufnal, Marcin; Szulczyk, Bartłomiej; Podsadni, Piotr; Drapała, Adrian; Turło, Jadwiga; Dawidowski, Maciej

    2016-01-01

    It was reported that antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) can be useful in controlling refractory seizures in humans or in enhancing the action of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) in animal models. Disopyramide phosphate (DISO) is an AAD that blocks sodium channels in cardiac myocytes. We evaluated a DISO derivative, 2-(2-chlorophenyl)-2-(pyridin-2-yl)acetamide (ADD424042) for its anticonvulsant activity in a battery of rodent models of epileptic seizures. The compound displayed a broad spectrum of activity in the 'classical' models as well as in the models of pharmacoresistant seizures. Furthermore, ADD424042 showed good therapeutic indices between the anticonvulsant activity and the motor impairment. On the contrary, no anticonvulsant effects but severe lethality were observed in the primary anticonvulsant testing of the parent DISO. By performing the whole-cell voltage-clamp experiments in dispersed cortical neurons we demonstrated that ADD424042 decreased the maximal amplitude of voltage-gated sodium channels with an IC50 value in nM range. Moreover, the compound enhanced use-dependent block and decreased excitability in pyramidal neurons in the current-clamp experiments in cortical slices. Importantly, we found that ADD424042 possessed either no, or very small cardiotoxic effect. In contrast to DISO, ADD424042 did not produce any apparent changes in electrocardiogram (ECG) and arterial blood pressure recordings. ADD424042 had no effect on QT and corrected QT intervals, at a dose which was 15 times higher than ED50 for the anticonvulsant effect in the MES model. Taken together, these data suggest that ADD424042 has the potential to become a lead structure for novel broadly acting AEDs with wide margin of cardiac safety.

  15. Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44: Lessons Learned from a Model Whole-Cell Bioreporter with a Broad Application History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary S. Sayler

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Initially described in 1990, Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 served as the first whole-cell bioreporter genetically endowed with a bioluminescent (luxCDABE phenotype directly linked to a catabolic (naphthalene degradative pathway. HK44 was the first genetically engineered microorganism to be released in the field to monitor bioremediation potential. Subsequent to that release, strain HK44 had been introduced into other solids (soils, sands, liquid (water, wastewater, and volatile environments. In these matrices, it has functioned as one of the best characterized chemically-responsive environmental bioreporters and as a model organism for understanding bacterial colonization and transport, cell immobilization strategies, and the kinetics of cellular bioluminescent emission. This review summarizes the characteristics of P. fluorescens HK44 and the extensive range of its applications with special focus on the monitoring of bioremediation processes and biosensing of environmental pollution.

  16. Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44: Lessons Learned from a Model Whole-Cell Bioreporter with a Broad Application History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trögl, Josef; Chauhan, Archana; Ripp, Steven; Layton, Alice C.; Kuncová, Gabriela; Sayler, Gary S.

    2012-01-01

    Initially described in 1990, Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 served as the first whole-cell bioreporter genetically endowed with a bioluminescent (luxCDABE) phenotype directly linked to a catabolic (naphthalene degradative) pathway. HK44 was the first genetically engineered microorganism to be released in the field to monitor bioremediation potential. Subsequent to that release, strain HK44 had been introduced into other solids (soils, sands), liquid (water, wastewater), and volatile environments. In these matrices, it has functioned as one of the best characterized chemically-responsive environmental bioreporters and as a model organism for understanding bacterial colonization and transport, cell immobilization strategies, and the kinetics of cellular bioluminescent emission. This review summarizes the characteristics of P. fluorescens HK44 and the extensive range of its applications with special focus on the monitoring of bioremediation processes and biosensing of environmental pollution. PMID:22438725

  17. Model-based drug development: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for broad application of pharmacometrics in drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetherington, Jeffrey D; Pfister, Marc; Banfield, Christopher; Stone, Julie A; Krishna, Rajesh; Allerheiligen, Sandy; Grasela, Dennis M

    2010-09-01

    Systematic implementation of model-based drug development (MBDD) to drug discovery and development has the potential to significantly increase the rate of medical breakthroughs and make available new and better treatments to patients. An analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (ie, SWOT) was conducted through focus group discussions that included 24 members representing 8 pharmaceutical companies to systematically assess the challenges to implementing MBDD into the drug development decision-making process. The application of the SWOT analysis to the successful implementation of MBDD yielded 19 strengths, 27 weaknesses, 34 opportunities, and 22 threats, which support the following conclusions. The shift from empirical drug development to MBDD requires a question-based mentality; early, proactive planning; dynamic access to multisource data; quantitative knowledge integration; multidisciplinary collaboration; effective communication and leadership skills; and innovative, impactful application of pharmacometrics focused on enhancing quantitative decision making. The ultimate goal of MBDD is to streamline discovery and development of innovative medicines to benefit patients.

  18. Understanding and modeling the physical processes that govern the melting of snow cover in a tropical mountain environment in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagnon, P.; Lafaysse, M.; Lejeune, Y.; Maisincho, L.; Rojas, M.; Chazarin, J. P.

    2009-10-01

    The ISBA/CROCUS coupled ground-snow model developed for the Alps and subsequently adapted to the outer tropical conditions of Bolivia has been applied to a full set of meteorological data recorded at 4860 m above sea level on a moraine area in Ecuador (Antizana 15 glacier, 0°28'S; 78°09'W) between 16 June 2005 and 30 June 2006 to determine the physical processes involved in the melting and disappearance of transient snow cover in nonglaciated areas of the inner tropics. Although less accurate than in Bolivia, the model is still able to simulate snow behavior over nonglaciated natural surfaces, as long as the modeled turbulent fluxes over bare ground are reduced and a suitable function is included to represent the partitioning of the surface between bare soil and snow cover. The main difference between the two tropical sites is the wind velocity, which is more than 3 times higher at the Antizana site than at the Bolivian site, leading to a nonuniform spatial distribution of snow over nonglaciated areas that is hard to describe with a simple snow partitioning function. Net solar radiation dominates the surface energy balance and is responsible for the energy stored in snow-free areas (albedo = 0.05) and transferred horizontally to adjacent snow patches by conduction within the upper soil layers and by turbulent advection. These processes can prevent the snow cover from lasting more than a few hours or a few days. Sporadically, and at any time of the year, this inner tropical site, much wetter than the outer tropics, experiences heavy snowfalls, covering all the moraine area, and thus limiting horizontal transfers and inducing a significant time lag between precipitation events and runoff.

  19. Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Jantz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

  20. The effect of Thematic Mapper spectral properties on land cover mapping for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervin, J. C.; Lu, Y. C.; Gauthier, R. L.; Miller, J. R.; Irish, R. R.

    1986-01-01

    The accuracy of unsupervised land-cover classification from all seven Landsat TM bands and from six combinations of three or four bands is evaluated using images of the Clinton River Basin, a suburban watershed near Detroit. Data from aerial TMS photography, USGS topographic maps, and ground surveys are employed to determine the classification accuracy. The mapping accuracy of all seven bands is found to be significantly better (6 percent overall, 12 percent for residential areas, and 13 percent for commercial districts) than that with bands 2, 3, and 4; but almost the same accuracy is obtained by including at least one band from each major spectral region (visible, NIR, and mid-IR).

  1. What Role for Humans in Global Land Cover Change over the Holocene? Insights from Models and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.; Davis, B. A. S.; Zanon, M.

    2014-12-01

    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive this integrated model a new synthesis of demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate natural vegetation and anthropogenic land use from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850 and compare these results with regional syntheses of pollen-based reconstructions of land cover. Our model results show that climate and tectonics controlled global land cover in the early Holocene. Shifts in forest biomes on the northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits. By the early Iron Age (1000 BC), however, humans in Europe, East Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. Anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. While we simulate fluctuations in human impact on the landscape, including periods of widespread land abandonment, e.g., during the Migration Period in Europe that following the end of the Western Roman Empire, approaching the Industrial Revolution nearly all of the landmasses of Europe and south and East Asia are dominated by anthropogenic activities. In contrast, the

  2. A Modeling Study of the Effects of Anomalous Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘华强; 孙照渤; 王举; 闵锦忠

    2004-01-01

    The effect of anomalous snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian summer monsoon is investigated by numerical simulations using the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM2) into which gravity wave drag has been introduced. The simulations adopt relatively realistic snow mass forcings based on Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) pentad snow depth data. The physical mechanism and spatial structure of the sensitivity of the South Asian early summer monsoon to snow cover anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau are revealed. The main results are summarized as follows. The heavier than normal snow cover over the Plateau can obviously reduce the shortwave radiation absorbed by surface through the albedo effect, which is compensated by weaker upward sensible heat flux associated with colder surface temperature, whereas the effects of snow melting and evaporation are relatively smaller.The anomalies of surface heat fluxes can last until June and become unobvions in July. The decrease of the Plateau surface temperature caused by heavier snow cover reaches its maximum value from late April to early May. The atmospheric cooling in the mid-upper troposphere over the Plateau and its surrounding areas is most obvious in May and can keep a fairly strong intensity in June. In contrast, there is warming to the south of the Plateau in the mid-lower troposphere from April to June with a maximum value in May.The heavier snow cover over the Plateau can reduce the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon and rainfall to some extent, but this influence is only obvious in early summer and almost disappears in later stages.

  3. Benthic Cover

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Benthic cover (habitat) maps are derived from aerial imagery, underwater photos, acoustic surveys, and data gathered from sediment samples. Shallow to moderate-depth...

  4. Computational modelling of the cerebral cortical microvasculature: effect of x-ray microbeams versus broad beam irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrem, A.; Bartzsch, S.; Laissue, J.; Oelfke, U.

    2017-05-01

    Microbeam Radiation Therapy is an innovative pre-clinical strategy which uses arrays of parallel, tens of micrometres wide kilo-voltage photon beams to treat tumours. These x-ray beams are typically generated on a synchrotron source. It was shown that these beam geometries allow exceptional normal tissue sparing from radiation damage while still being effective in tumour ablation. A final biological explanation for this enhanced therapeutic ratio has still not been found, some experimental data support an important role of the vasculature. In this work, the effect of microbeams on a normal microvascular network of the cerebral cortex was assessed in computer simulations and compared to the effect of homogeneous, seamless exposures at equal energy absorption. The anatomy of a cerebral microvascular network and the inflicted radiation damage were simulated to closely mimic experimental data using a novel probabilistic model of radiation damage to blood vessels. It was found that the spatial dose fractionation by microbeam arrays significantly decreased the vascular damage. The higher the peak-to-valley dose ratio, the more pronounced the sparing effect. Simulations of the radiation damage as a function of morphological parameters of the vascular network demonstrated that the distribution of blood vessel radii is a key parameter determining both the overall radiation damage of the vasculature and the dose-dependent differential effect of microbeam irradiation.

  5. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic;

    2016-01-01

    for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes...... on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict...

  6. Universal or Specific? A Modeling-Based Comparison of Broad-Spectrum Influenza Vaccines against Conventional, Strain-Matched Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Subramanian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the availability of vaccines, influenza remains a major public health challenge. A key reason is the virus capacity for immune escape: ongoing evolution allows the continual circulation of seasonal influenza, while novel influenza viruses invade the human population to cause a pandemic every few decades. Current vaccines have to be updated continually to keep up to date with this antigenic change, but emerging 'universal' vaccines-targeting more conserved components of the influenza virus-offer the potential to act across all influenza A strains and subtypes. Influenza vaccination programmes around the world are steadily increasing in their population coverage. In future, how might intensive, routine immunization with novel vaccines compare against similar mass programmes utilizing conventional vaccines? Specifically, how might novel and conventional vaccines compare, in terms of cumulative incidence and rates of antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza? What are their potential implications for the impact of pandemic emergence? Here we present a new mathematical model, capturing both transmission dynamics and antigenic evolution of influenza in a simple framework, to explore these questions. We find that, even when matched by per-dose efficacy, universal vaccines could dampen population-level transmission over several seasons to a greater extent than conventional vaccines. Moreover, by lowering opportunities for cross-protective immunity in the population, conventional vaccines could allow the increased spread of a novel pandemic strain. Conversely, universal vaccines could mitigate both seasonal and pandemic spread. However, where it is not possible to maintain annual, intensive vaccination coverage, the duration and breadth of immunity raised by universal vaccines are critical determinants of their performance relative to conventional vaccines. In future, conventional and novel vaccines are likely to play complementary roles in

  7. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  8. Land use and land cover map of a semiarid region of Brazil for meteorological and climatic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Marcia da Silva Pinto Vieira

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available An updated vegetation cover and land use map over a semiarid region of Brazil has been produced at a 1 km spatial resolution, using satellite data and remote sensing techniques, for application in climate modeling. The map presents the location and distribution of major vegetation types and non-vegetated land surface formations for the Northeast Brazil Region, which includes the semiarid region. In this study, Radambrasil and IBGE vegetation maps, a digital mosaic of ETM+ Landsat 7, and TM Landsat 5 images from the period 1999-2000 were used. To update the map, the techniques of segmentation and unsupervised classification (ISOSEG were applied. A total of 7 land cover and land use categories were mapped according to the "Simplified Simple Biosphere"(SSiB model legend. This map shows that there has been a considerable increase in agricultural activities and pasture area. The vegetation in this region is an intricate combination of different life forms (e.g., trees and shrubs forming a closed cover in this region. The semiarid region of Brazil is susceptible to desertification due to climatic and environmental conditions. This updated map should provide important input for regional stratification in climate studies.

  9. Modelling the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent at the catchment scale taking into account changes in snow covered area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Skaugen

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A successful modelling of the snow reservoir is necessary for water resources assessments and the mitigation of spring flood hazards. A good estimate of the spatial probability density function (PDF of snow water equivalent (SWE is important for obtaining estimates of the snow reservoir, but also for modelling the changes in snow covered area (SCA, which is crucial for the runoff dynamics in spring. In a previous paper the PDF of SWE was modelled as a sum of temporally correlated gamma distributed variables. This methodology was constrained to estimate the PDF of SWE for snow covered areas only. In order to model the PDF of SWE for a catchment, we need to take into account the change in snow coverage and provide the spatial moments of SWE for both snow covered areas and for the catchment as a whole. The spatial PDF of accumulated SWE is, also in this study, modelled as a sum of correlated gamma distributed variables. After accumulation and melting events the changes in the spatial moments are weighted by changes in SCA. The spatial variance of accumulated SWE is, after both accumulation- and melting events, evaluated by use of the covariance matrix. For accumulation events there are only positive elements in the covariance matrix, whereas for melting events, there are both positive and negative elements. The negative elements dictate that the correlation between melt and SWE is negative. The negative contributions become dominant only after some time into the melting season so at the onset of the melting season, the spatial variance thus continues to increase, for later to decrease. This behaviour is consistent with observations and called the "hysteretic" effect by some authors. The parameters for the snow distribution model can be estimated from observed historical precipitation data which reduces by one the number of parameters to be calibrated in a hydrological model. Results from the model are in good agreement with observed spatial moments

  10. Modelling the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent at the catchment scale taking into account changes in snow covered area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, T.; Randen, F.

    2011-12-01

    A successful modelling of the snow reservoir is necessary for water resources assessments and the mitigation of spring flood hazards. A good estimate of the spatial probability density function (PDF) of snow water equivalent (SWE) is important for obtaining estimates of the snow reservoir, but also for modelling the changes in snow covered area (SCA), which is crucial for the runoff dynamics in spring. In a previous paper the PDF of SWE was modelled as a sum of temporally correlated gamma distributed variables. This methodology was constrained to estimate the PDF of SWE for snow covered areas only. In order to model the PDF of SWE for a catchment, we need to take into account the change in snow coverage and provide the spatial moments of SWE for both snow covered areas and for the catchment as a whole. The spatial PDF of accumulated SWE is, also in this study, modelled as a sum of correlated gamma distributed variables. After accumulation and melting events the changes in the spatial moments are weighted by changes in SCA. The spatial variance of accumulated SWE is, after both accumulation- and melting events, evaluated by use of the covariance matrix. For accumulation events there are only positive elements in the covariance matrix, whereas for melting events, there are both positive and negative elements. The negative elements dictate that the correlation between melt and SWE is negative. The negative contributions become dominant only after some time into the melting season so at the onset of the melting season, the spatial variance thus continues to increase, for later to decrease. This behaviour is consistent with observations and called the "hysteretic" effect by some authors. The parameters for the snow distribution model can be estimated from observed historical precipitation data which reduces by one the number of parameters to be calibrated in a hydrological model. Results from the model are in good agreement with observed spatial moments of SWE and SCA

  11. Integrating the effects of forest cover on slope stability in a deterministic landslide susceptibility model (TRIGRS 2.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Bremer, M.; Meissl, G.; Geitner, C.

    2014-12-01

    The potentially stabilizing effects of forest cover in respect of slope stability have been the subject of many studies in the recent past. Hence, the effects of trees are also considered in many deterministic landslide susceptibility models. TRIGRS 2.0 (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability; USGS) is a dynamic, physically-based model designed to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility in space and time. In the original version the effects of forest cover are not considered. As for further studies in Vorarlberg (Austria) TRIGRS 2.0 is intended to be applied in selected catchments that are densely forested, the effects of trees on slope stability were implemented in the model. Besides hydrological impacts such as interception or transpiration by tree canopies and stems, root cohesion directly influences the stability of slopes especially in case of shallow landslides while the additional weight superimposed by trees is of minor relevance. Detailed data on tree positions and further attributes such as tree height and diameter at breast height were derived throughout the study area (52 km²) from high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. Different scenarios were computed for spruce (Picea abies) in the study area. Root cohesion was estimated area-wide based on published correlations between root reinforcement and distance to tree stems depending on the stem diameter at breast height. In order to account for decreasing root cohesion with depth an exponential distribution was assumed and implemented in the model. Preliminary modelling results show that forest cover can have positive effects on slope stability yet strongly depending on tree age and stand structure. This work has been conducted within C3S-ISLS, which is funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund, 5th ACRP Program.

  12. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  13. Simulation of the melt season using a resolved sea ice model with snow cover and melt ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skyllingstad, Eric D.; Shell, Karen M.; Collins, Lee; Polashenski, Chris

    2015-07-01

    A three-dimensional sea ice model is presented with resolved snow thickness variations and melt ponds. The model calculates heating from solar radiative transfer and simulates the formation and movement of brine/melt water through the ice system. Initialization for the model is based on observations of snow topography made during the summer melt seasons of 2009, 2010, and 2012 from a location off the coast of Barrow, AK. Experiments are conducted to examine the importance of snow properties and snow and ice thickness by comparing observed and modeled pond fraction and albedo. One key process simulated by the model is the formation of frozen layers in the ice as relatively warm fresh water grid cells freeze when cooled by adjacent, cold brine-filled grid cells. These layers prevent vertical drainage and lead to flooding of melt water commonly observed at the beginning of the melt season. Flooding persists until enough heat is absorbed to melt through the frozen layer. The resulting long-term melt pond coverage is sensitive to both the spatial variability of snow cover and the minimum snow depth. For thin snow cover, initial melting results in earlier, reduced flooding with a small change in pond fraction after drainage of the melt water. Deeper snow tends to generate a delayed, larger peak pond fraction before drainage.

  14. Effects of forest cover changes in European Russia on regional weather conditions: results of numerical experiments with the COSMO-CLM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kuzmina, Ekaterina; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Rivin, Gdaly S.

    2017-04-01

    The forests have a significant effect on the climatic system. They capture CO2 from the atmosphere, regulate the surface evaporation and runoff, and influence the radiation and thermal conditions of the land surface. It is obvious, that their influence depends on many different factors including regional climate conditions, land use and vegetation structure, surface topography, etc. The main goal of the study is to assess the possible influence of forest cover changes (under deforestation and/or afforestation) on regional weather conditions in the central part of European Russia using the results of modeling experiments provided by the meso-scale COSMO-CLM model. The need of the study lies in a lack of the experimental and modeling data characterizing the influence of the forest and land-use changes on regional weather conditions in European part of Russia. The forest ecosystems in the study region play a very important biosphere role that is significantly increased in the last decades due to considerable strengthening of anthropogenic activity in the area of European Russia. The area selected for the study is located in the central part of European Russia between 55 and 59N and 28 and 37E. It comprises several geographical zones including dark-coniferous forests of the South-European taiga in the north, the mixed forests in the central part and the broad-leaved forests in the south. The forests within the study area are very heterogeneous. The total area covered by forests according to recent remote sensing data is about 50%. The numerical experiments were provided using the COSMO-CLM model with the spatial resolution 13.2 km. As initial and boundary conditions for the numerical experiments the global reanalysis ERA Interim (with the 6-hour resolution in time and 0.75° × 0.75° in space) were used. The weather conditions were simulated in a continuous cycle for several months for the entire area of European Russia using the results of global reanalysis on

  15. Formulation of Subgrid Variability and Boundary-Layer Cloud Cover in Large-Scale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    soils have been specifically evaluated in terms of a van Genuchten formulation. The CAPS model was originally formulated for inclusion in large...terrestrial atmospheric boundary lay- ers, suitable for inclusion in large-scale models. The ABL mixing scheme (Troen and Mahrt, 1986) includes both...AFGL soil sodel (OSU-PL land-surface scheme) coupled to a boundary layer model developed by Jan Paegle, Univ. Utah. Ciudad Universitaria Pabellon 2

  16. A comparison of two approaches to modelling snow cover dynamics at the Polish Polar Station at Hornsund

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luks, B.; Osuch, M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    We compare two approaches to modelling snow cover dynamics at the Polish Polar Station at Hornsund. In the first approach we apply physically-based Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) (Tarboton et al., 1995; Tarboton and Luce, 1996). The model uses a lumped representation of the snowpack with two primary state variables: snow water equivalence and energy. Its main driving inputs are: air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and radiation (estimated from the diurnal temperature range). Those variables are used for physically-based calculations of radiative, sensible, latent and advective heat exchanges with a 3 hours time step. The second method is an application of a statistically efficient lumped parameter time series approach to modelling the dynamics of snow cover , based on daily meteorological measurements from the same area. A dynamic Stochastic Transfer Function model is developed that follows the Data Based Mechanistic approach, where a stochastic data-based identification of model structure and an estimation of its parameters are followed by a physical interpretation. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty of both model outputs. In the time series approach, the applied techniques also provide estimates of the modeling errors and the uncertainty of the model parameters. In the first, physically-based approach the applied UEB model is deterministic. It assumes that the observations are without errors and that the model structure perfectly describes the processes within the snowpack. To take into account the model and observation errors, we applied a version of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation technique (GLUE). This technique also provide estimates of the modelling errors and the uncertainty of the model parameters. The observed snowpack water equivalent values are compared with those simulated with 95% confidence bounds. This work was supported by National Science Centre of Poland (grant no. 7879/B/P01

  17. A note on the translation of conceptual data models into description logics: disjointness and covering assumptions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Casini, G

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available possibilities for conceptual data modeling. It also raises the question of how existing conceptual models using ER, UML or ORM could be translated into Description Logics (DLs), a family of logics that have proved to be particularly appropriate for formalizing...

  18. Modeled Impacts of Cover Crops and Vegetative Barriers on Corn Stover Availability and Soil Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian J. Bonner; David J. Muth Jr.; Joshua B. Koch; Douglas L. Karlen

    2014-06-01

    Environmentally benign, economically viable, and socially acceptable agronomic strategies are needed to launch a sustainable lignocellulosic biofuel industry. Our objective was to demonstrate a landscape planning process that can ensure adequate supplies of corn (Zea mays L.) stover feedstock while protecting and improving soil quality. The Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) was used to develop land use strategies that were then scaled up for five U.S. Corn Belt states (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota) to illustrate the impact that could be achieved. Our results show an annual sustainable stover supply of 194 million Mg without exceeding soil erosion T values or depleting soil organic carbon [i.e., soil conditioning index (SCI)?>?0] when no-till, winter cover crop, and vegetative barriers were incorporated into the landscape. A second, more rigorous conservation target was set to enhance soil quality while sustainably harvesting stover. By requiring erosion to be <1/2 T and the SCI-organic matter (OM) subfactor to be >?0, the annual sustainable quantity of harvestable stover dropped to148 million Mg. Examining removal rates by state and soil resource showed that soil capability class and slope generally determined the effectiveness of the three conservation practices and the resulting sustainable harvest rate. This emphasizes that sustainable biomass harvest must be based on subfield management decisions to ensure soil resources are conserved or enhanced, while providing sufficient biomass feedstock to support the economic growth of bioenergy enterprises.

  19. Climate under cover

    CERN Document Server

    Takakura, Tadashi

    2002-01-01

    1.1. INTRODUCTION Plastic covering, either framed or floating, is now used worldwide to protect crops from unfavorable growing conditions, such as severe weather and insects and birds. Protected cultivation in the broad sense, including mulching, has been widely spread by the innovation of plastic films. Paper, straw, and glass were the main materials used before the era of plastics. Utilization of plastics in agriculture started in the developed countries and is now spreading to the developing countries. Early utilization of plastic was in cold regions, and plastic was mainly used for protection from the cold. Now plastic is used also for protection from wind, insects and diseases. The use of covering techniques started with a simple system such as mulching, then row covers and small tunnels were developed, and finally plastic houses. Floating mulch was an exception to this sequence: it was introduced rather recently, although it is a simple structure. New development of functional and inexpensive films trig...

  20. The GREGOR Broad-Band Imager

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Lühe, O.; Volkmer, R.; Kentischer, T. J.; Geißler, R.

    2012-11-01

    The design and characteristics of the Broad-Band Imager (BBI) of GREGOR are described. BBI covers the visible spectral range with two cameras simultaneously for a large field and with critical sampling at 390 nm, and it includes a mode for observing the pupil in a Foucault configuration. Samples of first-light observations are shown.

  1. Effective roughness calculated from satellite-derived land cover maps and hedge-information used in a weather forecasting model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, C.B.; Nielsen, N.,W.; Jensen, N.O.

    2003-01-01

    In numerical weather prediction, climate and hydrological modelling, the grid cell size is typically larger than the horizontal length scales of variations in aerodynamic roughness, surface temperature and surface humidity. These local land cover variations give rise to sub-grid scale surface flux...... to be well-described in any large-scale model. A method of aggregating the roughness step changes in arbitrary real terrain has been applied in flat terrain (Denmark) where sub-grid scale vegetation-driven roughness variations are a dominant characteristic of the landscape. The aggregation model...... is a physical two-dimensional atmospheric flow model in the horizontal domain based on a linearized version of the Navier Stoke equation. The equations are solved by the Fast Fourier Transformation technique, hence the code is very fast. The new effective roughness maps have been used in the HIgh Resolution...

  2. Reciprocity principle-based model for shielding effectiveness prediction of a rectangular cavity with a covered aperture

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    焦重庆; 李月月

    2015-01-01

    According to the reciprocity principle, we propose an efficient model to compute the shielding effectiveness of a rectangular cavity with apertures covered by conductive sheet against an external incident electromagnetic wave. This problem is converted into another problem of solving the electromagnetic field leakage from the cavity when the cavity is excited by an electric dipole placed within it. By the combination of the unperturbed cavity field and the transfer impedance of the sheet, the tangential electric field distribution on the outer surface of the sheet is obtained. Then, the field distribution is regarded as an equivalent surface magnetic current source responsible for the leakage field. The validation of this model is verified by a comparison with the circuital model and the full-wave simulations. This time-saving model can deal with arbitrary aperture shape, various wave propagation and polarization directions, and the near-field effect.

  3. Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

    the wind resource modelling of coastal areas. The wind over a coastal area was measured by land-based LIDAR systems [6], an offshore LIDAR buoy and satellite radar remote sensing (SAR and scatterometers). Simulations using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) meso-scale model were performed. The aim...... was to evaluate the uncertainty of the modelled wind in the coastal zone and further improve it. Moreover LIDAR measurements were used to evaluate the wind speed retrieval from high resolution SAR systems (Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X). The WRF model used a high-resolution satellite SST reanalysis product from...... the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), specifically developed for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. To improve the physical description of the domain, the elevation, topography and land use, the CORINE land cover database and the SRTM elevation database are used as boundary conditions; with a spatial...

  4. Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Bruce D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Naesset, Erik; Anderson, Ryan S.; Garrigues, Sebastian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Nickeson, Jaime; Davis, Kenneth J.

    2009-01-01

    Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

  5. Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Bruce D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Naesset, Erik; Anderson, Ryan S.; Garrigues, Sebastian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Nickeson, Jaime; Davis, Kenneth J.

    2009-01-01

    Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

  6. Development of an object-based classification model for mapping mountainous forest cover at high elevation using aerial photography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lateb, Mustapha; Kalaitzidis, Chariton; Tompoulidou, Maria; Gitas, Ioannis

    2016-08-01

    Climate change and overall temperature increase results in changes in forest cover in high elevations. Due to the long life cycle of trees, these changes are very gradual and can be observed over long periods of time. In order to use remote sensing imagery for this purpose it needs to have very high spatial resolution and to have been acquired at least 50 years ago. At the moment, the only type of remote sensing imagery with these characteristics is historical black and white aerial photographs. This study used an aerial photograph from 1945 in order to map the forest cover at the Olympus National Park, at that date. An object-based classification (OBC) model was developed in order to classify forest and discriminate it from other types of vegetation. Due to the lack of near-infrared information, the model had to rely solely on the tone of the objects, as well as their geometric characteristics. The model functioned on three segmentation levels, using sub-/super-objects relationships and utilising vegetation density to discriminate forest and non-forest vegetation. The accuracy of the classification was assessed using 503 visually interpreted and randomly distributed points, resulting in a 92% overall accuracy. The model is using unbiased parameters that are important for differentiating between forest and non-forest vegetation and should be transferrable to other study areas of mountainous forests at high elevations.

  7. Interpreting the cloud cover – aerosol optical depth relationship found in satellite data using a general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Quaas

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistical analysis of satellite data shows a positive correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD and total cloud cover (TCC. Reasons for this relationship have been disputed in recent literature. The aim of this study is to explore how different processes contribute to one model's analog of the positive correlation between aerosol optical depth and total cloud cover seen in the satellite retrievals. We compare the slope of the linear regression between the logarithm of TCC and the logarithm of AOD, or the strength of the relationship, as derived from three satellite data sets to the ones simulated by a global aerosol-climate model. We analyse model results from two different simulations with and without a parameterisation of aerosol indirect effects, and using dry compared to humidified AOD. Perhaps not surprisingly we find that no single one of the hypotheses discussed in the literature is able to uniquely explain the positive relationship. However the dominant contribution to the model's AOD-TCC relationship can be attributed to aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are coincidentally found. This finding leads us to hypothesise that much of the AOD-TCC relationship seen in the satellite data is also carried by such a process, rather than the direct effects of the aerosols on the cloud fields themselves.

  8. Predictive modelling of savannah woody cover: A multi-temporal and multi-sensor machine learning investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginbottom, Thomas; Symeonakis, Elias

    2016-04-01

    Effective monitoring of the Earth's ecosystems requires the availability of methods for quantifying the structural composition and cover of vegetation. This is especially important in heterogeneous environments, such as semi-arid savannahs which are naturally comprised of a dynamic mix of tree, shrub, and grass components. The fractional coverage of woody vegetation is a key ecosystem attribute in savannahs, particularly given current concerns over the invasion of grasslands by shrub species (shrub encroachment), or the over-exploitation of woody biomass for fuelwood. Remote sensing has a clear role to play in monitoring semi-arid environments, and in recent years the number of both spacebourne sensors and collected scenes has increased dramatically allowing for multi-temporal and multi-sensor investigations. Here we employ a statistical learning framework to assess the potential of optical and radar imagery for predicting fractional woody cover. We test a number of different model combinations in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results show that combining Landsat and PALSAR data produces the most accurate predictions (R2 =0.65, P fractional cover prediction.

  9. Hydro-peaking at Tonstad power plant in Norway Modelled effects on currents, temperatures and ice cover

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tjomsland, Torulv; Bakken, Tor Haakon.

    2012-07-01

    Hydro-peaking ing was done by pumping water from Sirdalsvatn to Homstoelvatn by night and using it for production the following day. The effect of the hydro-peaking was simulated by mathematical modelling. Hydro-peaking led to considerably changes in water level in Homstoelvatn, 3.5 m up and down each day. For Sirdalsvatn the difference was around 3/4 m. Hydro-peaking increased the current speed and current pattern especially near the openings of the tunnels in Sirdalsvatn and Homstoelvatn. The vertical mixing was increased throughout the lake. In Sirdalsvatn the hydro-peaking led to reduced temperatures near surface and increased temperatures at greater depths due to increased vertical mixing, especially during the autumn and the first part of winter. The circulation period was delayed and prolonged by a week or two. In Sirdalsvatn hydro-peaking resulted in a shorter period with ice cover. In both Sirdalsvatn and Homstoelvatn reduced ice cover formation may be connected to areas near the tunnel due to increased current velocities. Rapid water level changes may break up continuous ice cover along the shores.(Author)

  10. Analysis of the Effects of Different Land Use and Land Cover Classification on Surface Meteorological Variables using WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sati, A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The continuous population growth and the subsequent economic expansion over centuries have been the primary drivers of land use /land cover (LULC) changes resulting in the environmental changes across the globe. Most of the urban areas being developed today are on the expense of agricultural or barren lands and the changes result from various practices such as deforestation, changing agriculture practices, rapid expansion of urban centers etc.For modeling applications, classification of land use is important and periodic updates of land cover are necessary to capture change due to LULC changes.Updated land cover and land use data derived from satellites offer the possibility of consistent and regularly collected information on LULC. In this study we explore the application of Landsat based LULC classification inWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the meteorology over Delhi, India. The supervised classification of Landsat 8 imagery over Delhi region is performed which update the urban extent as well as other Land use for the region. WRF model simulations are performed using LULC classification from Landsat data, United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for various meteorological parameters. Modifications in LULC showed a significant effect on various surface meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind circulations and other underlying surface parameters. There is a considerable improvement in the spatial distribution of the surface meteorological parameters with correction in input LULC. The study demonstrates the improved LULC classification from Landsat data than currently in vogue and their potential to improve numerical weather simulations especially for expanding urban areas.The continuous population growth and the subsequent economic expansion over centuries have been the primary drivers of land use /land cover (LULC) changes resulting in the environmental changes

  11. The Broad Foundations, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broad Foundation, 2006

    2006-01-01

    The mission of the Broad Foundations is to transform K-12 urban public education through better governance, management, labor relations and competition; make significant contributions to advance major scientific and medical research; foster public appreciation of contemporary art by increasing access for audiences worldwide; and lead and…

  12. Digital Elevation Model Creation Using SfM on High-Altitude Snow-Covered Surfaces at Summit, Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millstein, J. D.; Hawley, R. L.

    2015-12-01

    Structure from Motion (SfM) provides a means through which a digital elevation model (DEM) can be constructed with data acquired at a relatively low cost when compared to other current alternatives. Using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), a large area can be efficiently covered at high spatial resolution to quantify regional topography. Structure from Motion applied to photogrammetric techniques from a UAV has proven to be a successful tool, but challenges to UAV-based SfM include high-altitude locations with few distinctive surface features and minor textural differences. In June 2015, we piloted a small UAV (Quest) in order to conduct a topographical survey of Summit Camp, Greenland using SfM. Summit Camp sits at a surface elevation of 3200 meters above sea level, and occupies a snow-covered surface. The flat, very uniform terrain proved to be a challenge when flying the UAV and processing imagery using SfM techniques. In this presentation we discuss the issues both with operating a UAV instrument platform at high-altitude in the polar regions and interpreting the resulting DEM from a snow-covered region. The final DEM of Summit Camp covers a large portion of the surface area directly impacted by camp activities. In particular, volume calculations of drifting snow gauge an estimate of the equipment hours that will be required to clear and unearth structures. Investigation of surface roughness at multiple length scales can similarly provide insight on the accuracy of the DEM when observing texturally uniform surfaces.

  13. A Mesoscale Meteorological Model of Modified Land Cover to the Effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale meteorological model of modified land cover to the effect of urban heat island (UHI in Jakarta was done. Although higher temperature in the city has been generally known, factors and issues that result in the increase of temperature particularly nighttime temperature over the city, however, are not well-understood. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is encountering urbanization problems foremost. The increasing demand of housing as well as rapid development of sky crapper building, market places and highway diminishes the vegetation which in turn trap heat in the troposphere throughout the year, particularly during dry season on June-August. The fifth-generation mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 was employed in the study. The model involves medium range forecast planetary boundary layer (MRF PBL scheme and land surface with two following parameters: i.e. roughness length over land and thermal inertia of land. These two parameters are chosen to enhance the characteristics of land surface. The simulation was carried out for 3 days on August 5-7, 2004 during dry season. The results showed that the simulation of surface temperature done by MM5 modified land cover described a good comparison to that of weather observation data. As a result, the effect of UHI was also well-observed during day-time. In addition, MM5 modified land cover simulation also illustrated a well-development of sea-breeze and country-breeze during mid-day and nighttime, respectively. However, long-term simulation is still required. Thus, daily diurnal cycles of air temperature and their differences can be well-observed in detail.

  14. Genetic Optimization for Associative Semantic Ranking Models of Satellite Images by Land Cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nil Kilicay-Ergin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Associative methods for content-based image ranking by semantics are attractive due to the similarity of generated models to human models of understanding. Although they tend to return results that are better understood by image analysts, the induction of these models is difficult to build due to factors that affect training complexity, such as coexistence of visual patterns in same images, over-fitting or under-fitting and semantic representation differences among image analysts. This article proposes a methodology to reduce the complexity of ranking satellite images for associative methods. Our approach employs genetic operations to provide faster and more accurate models for ranking by semantic using low level features. The added accuracy is provided by a reduction in the likelihood to reach local minima or to overfit. The experiments show that, using genetic optimization, associative methods perform better or at similar levels as state-of-the-art ensemble methods for ranking. The mean average precision (MAP of ranking by semantic was improved by 14% over similar associative methods that use other optimization techniques while maintaining smaller size for each semantic model.

  15. Modelling Vegetation Cover Dynamics of the Niger Floodplain in Mali, Westafrica, Using Multitemporal MERIS Full Resolution and TERRA -ASTER Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, Ralf

    well as seasonal distribution of the annual rainfall in the catchment areas and the resulting water supply contributed by the river system. Due to the relatively good availability of (surface) water, the Niger Inland Ecosystem serves as stop-over for many migrating birds and other wildlife species as well as an eonomic base for farmers and pastoral people. As a consequence, the entire Niger Inland Delta has been declared as protected RAMSAR site in 2004. Interaction among pre-flood, flood and post-flood conditions strongly affect the patterns of landcover in and around the delta as vegetation cover is strongly correlated with the availability of surface water. The Inland Delta is dominantly covered by (irrigated) fields or grasslands during flood and post-flood periods (October to January), while most of the photosynthetically active vegetation withers during the rest of the year. This yields in highly vibrant vegetation cover, although the vegetation cover density remains low even during flood period for most of the Inland Delta. This study analyses the intra-annual dynamics as well as changes in vegetation cover between individual years by interpreting 17 MERIS full resolution data over the period from Aug. 2002 to June 2005. MERIS sensor provides measurements from 15 spectral bands within the VIS and NIR part of the EMS with 300 m spatial resolution. Thus allowing for analyses at a regional scale level with high sensitivity for the amount of green vegetation. Short time dynamics of vegetation are related to changes in vegetation cover density. These changes were modelled with Vegetation Indices (VI) as parameter. To overcome well known problems related with NDVIs dependence of illumination and viewing angle, background signal (soil brightness) and changes in humidity, the MGVI was used as indix to derive more sophisticated biophysical information in addition to the classical NDVI. Soil types influence the remotely sensed signal significantly due to the overall

  16. Broad-Band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asami, Fumi; Enoto, Teruaki; Iwakiri, Wataru; Yamada, Shin'ya; Tamagawa, Toru; Mihara, Tatehiro; Nagase, Fumiaki

    2014-01-01

    Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4- 100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4-9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of sigma = 1.0-1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400-900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

  17. Broad-Band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asami, Fumi; Enoto, Teruaki; Iwakiri, Wataru; Yamada, Shin'ya; Tamagawa, Toru; Mihara, Tatehiro; Nagase, Fumiaki

    2014-01-01

    Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4- 100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4-9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of sigma = 1.0-1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400-900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

  18. Forest cover algorithms for estimating meteorological forcing in a numerical snow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellström, Robert Å.

    2000-12-01

    The architectural properties of a forest are known to significantly modify meteorological forcing of snowcover. This project develops four numerical modules to simulate canopy processes including attenuation of solar radiation and wind speed, the mixed sky and canopy components of longwave irradiance, and precipitation interception by canopy elements. The four modules and a more realistic atmospheric stability algorithm were included in the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) snow model to estimate water equivalence beneath coniferous and defoliated deciduous forests in northern Michigan. Systematic underestimation of early season snow depth was attributed to the assumption of constant, seasonal average, snow density in the model's lumped treatment of the snowpack processes. The modified UEB model (UEBMOD) improved estimation of snow depth in a clearing and beneath the coniferous site, whereas UEB with original forest parameterizations performed best for the deciduous site.

  19. A comparison of simple and realistic eye models for calculation of fluence to dose conversion coefficients in a broad parallel beam incident of protons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhaee, Mahmoud; Vejdani-Noghreiyan, Alireza; Ebrahimi-Khankook, Atiyeh

    2015-01-01

    Radiation induced cataract has been demonstrated among people who are exposed to ionizing radiation. To evaluate the deterministic effects of ionizing radiation on the eye lens, several papers dealing with the eye lens dose have been published. ICRP Publication 103 states that the lens of the eye may be more radiosensitive than previously considered. Detailed investigation of the response of the lens showed that there are strong differences in sensitivity to ionizing radiation exposure with respect to cataract induction among the tissues of the lens of the eye. This motivated several groups to look deeper into issue of the dose to a sensitive cell population within the lens, especially for radiations with low energy penetrability that have steep dose gradients inside the lens. Two sophisticated mathematical models of the eye including the inner structure have been designed for the accurate dose estimation in recent years. This study focuses on the calculations of the absorbed doses of different parts of the eye using the stylized models located in UF-ORNL phantom and comparison with the data calculated with the reference computational phantom in a broad parallel beam incident of protons with energies between 20 MeV and 10 GeV. The obtained results indicate that the total lens absorbed doses of reference phantom has good compliance with those of the more sensitive regions of stylized models. However, total eye absorbed dose of these models greatly differ with each other for lower energies.

  20. Constraining UV continuum slopes of active galactic nuclei with cloudy models of broad-line region extreme-ultraviolet emission lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moloney, Joshua [CASA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States); Michael Shull, J., E-mail: joshua.moloney@colorado.edu, E-mail: michael.shull@colorado.edu [Also at Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0HA, UK. (United Kingdom)

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the composition and structure of the broad-line region (BLR) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is important for answering many outstanding questions in supermassive black hole evolution, galaxy evolution, and ionization of the intergalactic medium. We used single-epoch UV spectra from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) on the Hubble Space Telescope to measure EUV emission-line fluxes from four individual AGNs with 0.49 ≤ z ≤ 0.64, two AGNs with 0.32 ≤ z ≤ 0.40, and a composite of 159 AGNs. With the CLOUDY photoionization code, we calculated emission-line fluxes from BLR clouds with a range of density, hydrogen ionizing flux, and incident continuum spectral indices. The photoionization grids were fit to the observations using single-component and locally optimally emitting cloud (LOC) models. The LOC models provide good fits to the measured fluxes, while the single-component models do not. The UV spectral indices preferred by our LOC models are consistent with those measured from COS spectra. EUV emission lines such as N IV λ765, O II λ833, and O III λ834 originate primarily from gas with electron temperatures between 37,000 K and 55,000 K. This gas is found in BLR clouds with high hydrogen densities (n {sub H} ≥ 10{sup 12} cm{sup –3}) and hydrogen ionizing photon fluxes (Φ{sub H} ≥ 10{sup 22} cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}).

  1. Numerical modeling of a snow cover on Hooker Island (Franz Josef Land archipelago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Sokratov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of surface heat and moisture exchange SPONSOR are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with typical Arctic climate conditions. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have great influence on snow depth on territories with high wind speed. This parameter significantly improves the simulation quality of the numerical model. Some discrepancies between evaluated and observed snow depth values can be explained by inaccuracies in precipitation measurements (at least in certain cases and errors in calculations of incoming radiation, mostly due to low accuracy in the cloudiness observations.

  2. A new polarization model of changes in the work function for bare and covered transition metal surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustorovich, E.; Baetzold, R. C.

    We suggest a new polarization mechanism for changes in the work function Δ φ for bare transition metal surfaces and those covered by electronegative adsorbates such as hydrogen or halogens. The mechanism, based on the p-d orbital rehybridization of the surface atoms, has been tested for the relevant metal slabs, within a Hückel-type LCAO MO approach, both analytically and computationally. We present the major results stressing the basic physics behind them. Some conceptual implications of the new model are discussed.

  3. Land use and land cover changes simulated with agent-based modelling for water conservation at catchment scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giełda-Pinas Katarzyna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Various factors influence the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover and land use in lakeland landscapes. Land use/cover change (LUCC is one of the crucial factors influencing both natural processes that occur in lakelands and lakes and anthropogenic processes, which intensify these changes. Therefore, LUCC at a local and regional scale may be treated as an important geoindicator for the functioning of the lakeland landscape. Nowadays, LUCC mostly depends on different human decisions. In the existing literature, the consequences of negative changes have already been widely recognized. Conversely, in this paper, we focus on the possible positive effects of LUCC. To that end, we built an agent-based model to show how selected human decisions may positively influence lakeland landscapes and lakes. We apply the model to the Gniezno Lakeland, Poland. Based on the environmental decisions of farmers, the model demonstrates how the LUCC pattern may change in time and space and how those changes may influence freshwater quality in four individual lake catchments of the Gniezno Lakeland.

  4. Fracture model for predicting concrete cover-cracking induced by steel corrosion based on interface bond state

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xian-li; ZHENG Jian-jun; WU Zhi-min

    2009-01-01

    Time-to-cracking of the concrete cover induced by the steel corrosion is one of the critical problems faced by engineers, operators and asset managers in making strategies for the maintenance and repairs of reinforced concrete (RC)structures affected by corrosion. In this paper, a theoretical model for predicting the time-to-cracking is derived by assuming the bond between the steel bar and the concrete as a linear combination of perfectly smooth and bonded. The model takes into account the characteristics of existing exiguous flaws and initial cracks in the concrete before the load acting on RC structures. The validity of the proposed model is preliminarily verified by comparing the obtained results with the available experimental results. A remarkable advantage of the proposed method is its application to the prediction of the service life of RC structures, made of the deformed steel bars as well as the round bars. By determining an experimental constant α, which is related to the interface bond state between the steel bar and the concrete, the service life of RC structures can be predicted using the proposed scheme. Analysis of major factors affecting the time-to-cracking demonstrates that the length of the initial crack affects the service life of RC structures significantly. Moreover, the larger cover thickness and the smaller diameter of the steel bar within a certain range are beneficial to prolonging the time-to-cracking.

  5. Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillies, Robert R.; Carlson, Toby N.

    1995-01-01

    This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

  6. A method of aggregating heterogeneous subgrid land cover input data for multi-scale urban parameterization within atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, S. R.

    2015-12-01

    A method for representing grid-scale heterogeneous development density for urban climate models from probability density functions of sub-grid resolution observed data is proposed. Derived values are evaluated in relation to normalized Shannon Entropy to provide guidance in assessing model input data. Urban fraction for dominant and mosaic urban class contributions are estimated by combining analysis of 30-meter resolution National Land Cover Database 2006 data products for continuous impervious surface area and categorical land cover. The method aims at reducing model error through improvement of urban parameterization and representation of observations employed as input data. The multi-scale variation of parameter values are demonstrated for several methods of utilizing input. The method provides multi-scale and spatial guidance for determining where parameterization schemes may be mis-representing heterogeneity of input data, along with motivation for employing mosaic techniques based upon assessment of input data. The proposed method has wider potential for geographic application, and complements data products which focus on characterizing central business districts. The method enables obtaining urban fraction dependent upon resolution and class partition scheme, based upon improved parameterization of observed data, which provides one means of influencing simulation prediction at various aggregated grid scales.

  7. Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillies, Robert R.; Carlson, Toby N.

    1995-01-01

    This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

  8. How to Cover the Medical Costs of Hospitalization: a Theoretical Model Based on the Household Willingness to Pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela SARPE

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Covering medical costs is very important, in order to solve the various financial problems that limit the users’ access to health care (patients attending the public hospitals. Designing a new model of financing system by using an additional levy to the local tax revenue is one of the solutions to these problems. This theoretical model optimizes the amount of financial participation of the users or "pfu" compared to the direct costs of hospital care starting from the willingness to pay revealed by the household. The criterion of morbidity for predicting the staffing of a part from the tax amount was chosen so that we can handle most of the users of the hospital. Firstly, the model shows that our new system could reduce the direct costs of care paid by users, and secondly, it also helps provide an additional resource in the supplementary budget of hospitals.

  9. Unsaturated hydraulic properties of xerophilous mosses: towards implementation of moss covered soils in hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voortman, B.R.; Bartholomeus, R.P.; Bodegom, van P.M.; Gooren, H.P.A.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.; Witte, J.P.M.

    2014-01-01

    Evaporation from mosses and lichens can form a major component of the water balance, especially in ecosystems where mosses and lichens often grow abundantly, such as tundra, deserts and bogs. To facilitate moss representation in hydrological models, we parameterized the unsaturated hydraulic propert

  10. Numerical Model of Turbulence, Sediment Transport, and Sediment Cover in a Large Canyon-Bound River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, L. V.; Schmeeckle, M. W.

    2013-12-01

    The Colorado River in Grand Canyon is confined by bedrock and coarse-grained sediments. Finer grain sizes are supply limited, and sandbars primarily occur in lateral separation eddies downstream of coarse-grained tributary debris fans. These sandbars are important resources for native fish, recreational boaters, and as a source of aeolian transport preventing the erosion of archaeological resources by gully extension. Relatively accurate prediction of deposition and, especially, erosion of these sandbar beaches has proven difficult using two- and three-dimensional, time-averaged morphodynamic models. We present a parallelized, three-dimensional, turbulence-resolving model using the Detached-Eddy Simulation (DES) technique. DES is a hybrid large eddy simulation (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS). RANS is applied to the near-bed grid cells, where grid resolution is not sufficient to fully resolve wall turbulence. LES is applied further from the bed and banks. We utilize the Spalart-Allmaras one equation turbulence closure with a rough wall extension. The model resolves large-scale turbulence using DES and simultaneously integrates the suspended sediment advection-diffusion equation. The Smith and McLean suspended sediment boundary condition is used to calculate the upward and downward settling of sediment fluxes in the grid cells attached to the bed. The model calculates the entrainment of five grain sizes at every time step using a mixing layer model. Where the mixing layer depth becomes zero, the net entrainment is zero or negative. As such, the model is able to predict the exposure and burial of bedrock and coarse-grained surfaces by fine-grained sediments. A separate program was written to automatically construct the computational domain between the water surface and a triangulated surface of a digital elevation model of the given river reach. Model results compare favorably with ADCP measurements of flow taken on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

  11. Maximum Entropy Production Modeling of Evapotranspiration Partitioning on Heterogeneous Terrain and Canopy Cover: advantages and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez-Jurado, H. A.; Guan, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, H.; Bras, R. L.; Simmons, C. T.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) and its partition over regions of heterogeneous topography and canopy poses a challenge using traditional approaches. In this study, we report the results of a novel field experiment design guided by the Maximum Entropy Production model of ET (MEP-ET), formulated for estimating evaporation and transpiration from homogeneous soil and canopy. A catchment with complex terrain and patchy vegetation in South Australia was instrumented to measure temperature, humidity and net radiation at soil and canopy surfaces. Performance of the MEP-ET model to quantify transpiration and soil evaporation was evaluated during wet and dry conditions with independently and directly measured transpiration from sapflow and soil evaporation using the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance (BREB). MEP-ET transpiration shows remarkable agreement with that obtained through sapflow measurements during wet conditions, but consistently overestimates the flux during dry periods. However, an additional term introduced to the original MEP-ET model accounting for higher stomatal regulation during dry spells, based on differences between leaf and air vapor pressure deficits and temperatures, significantly improves the model performance. On the other hand, MEP-ET soil evaporation is in good agreement with that from BREB regardless of moisture conditions. The experimental design allows a plot and tree scale quantification of evaporation and transpiration respectively. This study confirms for the first time that the MEP-ET originally developed for homogeneous open bare soil and closed canopy can be used for modeling ET over heterogeneous land surfaces. Furthermore, we show that with the addition of an empirical function simulating the plants ability to regulate transpiration, and based on the same measurements of temperature and humidity, the method can produce reliable estimates of ET during both wet and dry conditions without compromising its parsimony.

  12. Superheating and melting within aluminum core-oxide shell nanoparticles for a broad range of heating rates: multiphysics phase field modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Yong Seok; Levitas, Valery I

    2016-10-19

    The external surface of metallic particles is usually covered by a thin and strong oxide shell, which significantly affects superheating and melting of particles. The effects of geometric parameters and heating rate on characteristic melting and superheating temperatures and melting behavior of aluminum nanoparticles covered by an oxide shell were studied numerically. For this purpose, the multiphysics model that includes the phase field model for surface melting, a dynamic equation of motion, a mechanical model for stress and strain simulations, interface and surface stresses, and the thermal conduction model including thermoelastic and thermo-phase transformation coupling as well as transformation dissipation rate was formulated. Several nontrivial phenomena were revealed. In comparison with a bare particle, the pressure generated in a core due to different thermal expansions of the core and shell and transformation volumetric expansion during melting, increases melting temperatures with the Clausius-Clapeyron factor of 60 K GPa(-1). For the heating rates Q ≤ 10(9) K s(-1), melting temperatures (surface and bulk start and finish melting temperatures, and maximum superheating temperature) are independent of Q. For Q ≥ 10(12) K s(-1), increasing Q generally increases melting temperatures and temperature for the shell fracture. Unconventional effects start for Q ≥ 10(12) K s(-1) due to kinetic superheating combined with heterogeneous melting and geometry. The obtained results are applied to shed light on the initial stage of the melt-dispersion-mechanism of the reaction of Al nanoparticles. Various physical phenomena that promote or suppress melting and affect melting temperatures and temperature of the shell fracture for different heating-rate ranges are summarized in the corresponding schemes.

  13. Extending the GTAP data base and model to cover domestic support issues using EU as example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Kirsten; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Brockmeier, Martina

    The EU Single Farm Payment (SFP) is currently distributed in proportion to primary factor shares in version 8 of the GTAP database. In this paper, we investigate whether this way of modeling the EU SFP makes a difference in analyzing agricultural policy reforms. To do so, we create alternative...... PSE tables. We provide a detailed overview supplemented with assumptions of payment allocation, shock calculations and in particular, the Altertax procedure to update value flows and price equations extended in the GTAP model. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of those assumptions by simulating...... that the effect on welfare and the trade balance decreases with an increasing degree of decoupling. This experiment shows that the allocation of the SFP can have strong impacts on simulation results....

  14. Prediction of Global Cloud Cover with a Very High Resolution Global Spectral Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-05-03

    Circulation Model GLAS Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Science ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone LCL Lifting Condensation Level NMC National...60W 0 IL-wod in; the nor•all) iTa 20t0000 L-Clt ait toe ( physicall ) init =20,z0000 0t60E (20E 180E 120W 60W 0 20% Vaue b20W 60W 0 Toto] CIuar Indtedl

  15. Assessing suitability of multispectral satellites for mapping benthic macroalgal cover in turbid coastal waters by means of model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutser, Tiit; Vahtmäe, Ele; Martin, Georg

    2006-04-01

    One of the objectives of monitoring benthic algal cover is to observe short- and long-term changes in species distribution and structure of coastal benthic habitats as indicators of ecological state. Mapping benthic algal cover with conventional methods (diving) provides great accuracy and high resolution, yet is very expensive and is limited by the time and manpower necessary. We measured reflectance spectra of three indicator species for the Baltic Sea: Cladophora glomerata (green macroalgae), Furcellaria lumbricalis (red macroalgae), and Fucus vesiculosus (brown macroalgae) and used a bio-optical model in an attempt to estimate whether these algae are separable from each other and sandy bottom or deep water by means of satellite remote sensing. Our modelling results indicate that to some extent it is possible to map the studied species with multispectral satellite sensors in turbid waters. However, the depths where the macroalgae can be detected are often shallower than the maximum depths where the studied species usually grow. In waters deeper than just a few meters, the differences between the studied bottom types are seen only in band 2 (green) of the multispectral sensors under investigation. It means that multispectral sensors are capable of detecting difference in brightness only in one band which is insufficient for recognition of different bottom types in waters where no or few in situ data are available. Configuration of MERIS spectral bands allows the recognition of red, green and brown macroalgae based on their spectral signatures provided the algal belts are wider than MERIS spatial resolution. Commercial stock of F. lumbricalis in West-Estonian Archipelago covers area where MERIS 300 m spatial resolution is adequate. However, strong attenuation of light in the water column and signal to noise ratio of the sensor do not allow mapping of Furcellaria down to maximum depths where it occurs.

  16. Unmasking the soil cover's disruption by use of a dynamic model of measurement aerospace parameters of ground vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Vysotskaya

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The "Introduction" describes topicality and importance of revealing the soil cover's disruption for a wide range of fields. It was shown that spectral brightness and colorimetric parameters of ground vegetation can be used for this task. However, a traditional scheme of data processing for remote sensing requires a long-term observations and can not always be applied, if quick decision-making is necessary or there is lack of information. Such cases require the use of special methods, one of which is a dynamic model developed with authors' participation based on the following basic relationships: (+,- (-, - (+, 0, (-, 0 (0,0. The section "Brief description of a dynamic model" describes the basic principles of dynamic systems used to solve the problem. Using above-mentioned relationships, the dynamics of a system consisting of several components is constructed and its main properties are listed. The main feature of this model is that the identification of structure and parameters of the dynamic system does not required sequential order of observations (as for models based on time series. This feature of the model enables for identifying the system's parameters of dynamics of the natural system to use information from a single picture taken from the spacecraft rather than long-term observations. The section "Materials and Methods" describes specific colorimetric parameters used to analyze the vegetation cover. The section "Obtained results" contains an example of the model's application to a satellite image for detecting the differences in two sites of a field with vegetation. One site is a recultivated area near the liquidated gas-oil well, another site is non-recultivated area at a considerable distance from the well (500-1000 m. The simulation results are described by eight signed graphs (4 graphs for each sites, whose structure allows to identify the system differences between the two cases. The section "Conclusions" summarizes the results of

  17. A First-Principles Spectral Model for Blazar Jet Acceleration and Emission with Klein-Nishina Scattering of Multiple Broad Line Region Emission Lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tiffany R.; Finke, Justin; Becker, Peter A.

    2017-08-01

    Blazars are a sub-class of active galactic nuclei, with a polar jet aligned along our line of sight. Emission from blazar jets is observed across the electromagnetic spectrum. In our model we assume that the emission emanates from one homogeneous zone in the jet, which is in the process of passing through the Broad Line Region (BLR). We start from first-principles to build up a particle transport model, whose solution is the electron distribution, rather than assuming a convenient functional form. Our transport model considers shock acceleration, adiabatic expansion, stochastic acceleration, Bohm diffusion, synchrotron radiation, and Klein-Nishina radiation pulling seed photons from the BLR and dusty torus. We obtain the steady-state electron distribution computationally, and calculate individual spectral contributions due to synchrotron with self-absorption, disk, synchrotron self-Compton, and external-Compton emission, using numerical integration. We compare the resulting radiation spectrum with multi-wavelength data for 3C 279, during quiescence and two flares. Our preliminary results suggest that the jet emission is produced in a region with a sub-equipartition magnetic field, and that the magnetic field in the jet decreases during flaring events, implying that reconnection may play a role in blazar flares.

  18. Efficacy of oral E1210, a new broad-spectrum antifungal with a novel mechanism of action, in murine models of candidiasis, aspergillosis, and fusariosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hata, Katsura; Horii, Takaaki; Miyazaki, Mamiko; Watanabe, Nao-Aki; Okubo, Miyuki; Sonoda, Jiro; Nakamoto, Kazutaka; Tanaka, Keigo; Shirotori, Syuji; Murai, Norio; Inoue, Satoshi; Matsukura, Masayuki; Abe, Shinya; Yoshimatsu, Kentaro; Asada, Makoto

    2011-10-01

    E1210 is a first-in-class, broad-spectrum antifungal with a novel mechanism of action-inhibition of fungal glycosylphosphatidylinositol biosynthesis. In this study, the efficacies of E1210 and reference antifungals were evaluated in murine models of oropharyngeal and disseminated candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. Oral E1210 demonstrated dose-dependent efficacy in infections caused by Candida species, Aspergillus spp., and Fusarium solani. In the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis, E1210 and fluconazole each caused a significantly greater reduction in the number of oral CFU than the control treatment (P candidiasis model, mice treated with E1210, fluconazole, caspofungin, or liposomal amphotericin B showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis caused by azole-resistant Candida albicans or Candida tropicalis. A 24-h delay in treatment onset minimally affected the efficacy outcome of E1210 in the treatment of disseminated candidiasis. In the Aspergillus flavus pulmonary aspergillosis model, mice treated with E1210, voriconazole, or caspofungin showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. These data suggest that further studies to determine E1210's potential for the treatment of disseminated fungal infections are indicated.

  19. Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.

  20. Modeling water uptake by root system covered with mucilage at different degradation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Nimrod; Carminati, Andrea; Meunier, Félicien; Javaux, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    For many years the rhizosphere which is the zone of soil in the vicinity of the roots and which is influenced by the roots is known as a unique soil environment with different physical, biological and chemical properties than those of the bulk soil. In recent studies, it has been shown that root exudates and especially mucilage alter the hydraulic properties of the rhizosphere, and that drying and wetting cycles of mucilage result in non-equilibrium dynamics in the rhizosphere, affecting water content distribution and root water uptake (RWU). Current models that integrate RWU with rhizosphere processes are limited to a simplified one root system with a homogeneous distribution of rhizosphere and root properties. In this work, we present a 3D model of water flow in the soil-plant continuum that takes in consideration root architecture and rhizosphere processes including the spatial and temporal variation in root and rhizosphere hydraulic properties, resulted from mucilage exudation and biodegradation. In the new model mucilage concentration is distributed along the root system according to the exudation period and the biodegradation rate of mucilage described with a Monod-type equation. Mucilage considered being composed of miscible and immiscible components, each with contrasted microbial degradation preferences and rate, resulting in a different distribution of each of the component. The rhizosphere water holding capacity and hydraulic conductivity were set to be a function of the total mucilage concentration, and hydrophobicity (captured using non-equilibrium formulation) was set to be a function of the immiscible concentration. Several scenarios describing different degradation and exudation parameters were examined. The results show that the rhizosphere water content is positively related to the mucilage concentration and that the rhizosphere hydraulic conductivity is negatively related to mucilage concentration. We observed a complex relation between the

  1. Land Use and Land Cover Changes under Climate Uncertainty: Modelling the Impacts on Hydropower Production in Western Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomon Obahoundje

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC. In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012–2040.

  2. Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schaldach

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first-time overview of the current and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km2 is given. First, we applied the hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/land-cover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region. Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.

  3. Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason T. Sherba

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Global land-use/land-cover (LULC change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM framework. Here we compare three downscaling techniques to transform gridded LULC transitions into spatial scales and thematic LULC classes appropriate for use in a regional STSM. For each downscaling approach, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP LULC projections, at the 0.5 × 0.5 cell resolution, were downscaled to seven Level III ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest, United States. RCP transition values at each cell were downscaled based on the proportional distribution between ecoregions of (1 cell area, (2 land-cover composition derived from remotely-sensed imagery, and (3 historic LULC transition values from a LULC history database. Resulting downscaled LULC transition values were aggregated according to their bounding ecoregion and “cross-walked” to relevant LULC classes. Ecoregion-level LULC transition values were applied in a STSM projecting LULC change between 2005 and 2100. While each downscaling methods had advantages and disadvantages, downscaling using the historical land-use history dataset consistently apportioned RCP LULC transitions in agreement with historical observations. Regardless of the downscaling method, some LULC projections remain improbable and require further investigation.

  4. Land Cover Characterization Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long heritage of leadership and innovation in land use and land cover mapping. The USGS Anderson system defined the principles for land use and land cover mapping that have been the model both nationally and internationally for more than 20 years. The Land Cover Characterization Program (LCCP) is founded on the premise that the Nation's needs for land cover and land use data are diverse and increasingly sophisticated. The range of projects, programs, and organizations that use land cover data to meet their planning, management, development, and assessment objectives has expanded significantly. The reasons for this are numerous, and include the improved capabilities provided by geographic information systems, better and more data-intensive analytic models, and increasing requirements for improved information for decision making. The overall goals of the LCCP are to:

  5. LOCATING PUBLIC SCHOOLS IN FAST EXPANDING AREAS: APPLICATION OF THE CAPACITATED p-MEDIAN AND MAXIMAL COVERING LOCATION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Cezar Menezes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The area of Guaratiba, in Rio de Janeiro, presents extraordinary population growth rates that exceed all other districts of the city. Moreover, the public investments underway, in view of the 2106 Olympic Games, are making the region even more attractive. Therefore, it is appropriate to suggest proactive measures to avoid the predicted collapse of several public systems among them the education system. This paper considers the projected population for the years 2015 and 2020 and, using various computing resources, specially the ArcGIS Network Analyst tool for measuring traveled distances, proposes locating new facilities with the Capacitated p-Median Model and with the Maximum Covering Location Problem, considering an ideal maximal home-school distance of 1,500 meters, but also evaluating longer distances. Both problems have been solved with AIMMS. The consideration of both models provides a constructive insight that certainly improves the implemented solution and favors the local community.

  6. Influence of a dexamethasone-eluting covered stent on tissue reaction: an experimental study in a canine bronchial model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Ji Hoon; Song, Ho-Young; Choi, Gi Bok; Kim, Tae-Hyung; Suh, Ji-Yeon [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea); Seo, Tae-Seok [Gachon Medical School, Department of Radiology, Gil Medical Center, Inchon (Korea); Yuk, Soon Hong [Hannam University, Department of Polymer Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Daejeon (Korea); Kim, Young-Hwa [Soonchunhyang University Chonan Hospital, Department of Radiology, Chonan (Korea); Cho, Yong-Mee [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea)

    2005-06-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a dexamethasone (DXM)-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent to reduce tissue reaction following stent placement in a canine bronchial model. We placed a DXM-eluting, polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (drug stent, DS) and a polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (control stent, CS) alternately in each left main bronchus and left lower lobe bronchus in 12 dogs. The stents were 20 mm in diameter and length when fully expanded. The dose of DXM was approximately 36.7 mg in each DS, but was absent in the CS. The dogs were euthanased 1 week (n=4), 2 weeks (n=4) or 4 weeks (n=4) after stent placement. Histologic findings, such as epithelial erosion/ulcer or granulation tissue thickness, were obtained from the mid-portion of the bronchus, where the stent had been placed, and evaluated between DS and CS. There were no procedure-related complications or malpositioning of any of the bronchial stents. Stent migration was detected in one dog just before euthanasia 1 week following stent placement. Stent patency was maintained until euthanasia in all dogs. Epithelial erosion/ulcer (%) was significantly less in the DS (mean{+-}standard deviation, 46.88{+-}23.75) than in the CS (73.75{+-}14.08) (P=0.026) for all time-points. There was a decrease in epithelial erosion/ulcer as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. The granulation tissue thickness (mm) was less in DS (2.63{+-}2.05) than in CS (3.49{+-}2.95), although the difference was not significant (P=0.751) for all time-points. There was a tendency toward an increase in granulation tissue thickness and chronic lymphocytic infiltration as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. In conclusion, DXM-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent seems to be effective in reducing tissue reaction secondary to stent placement in a canine bronchial model. (orig.)

  7. Broad Diphotons from Narrow States

    CERN Document Server

    An, Haipeng; Zhang, Yue

    2015-01-01

    ATLAS and CMS have each reported a modest diphoton excess consistent with the decay of a broad resonance at ~ 750 GeV. We show how this signal can arise in a weakly coupled theory comprised solely of narrow width particles. In particular, if the decaying particle is produced off-shell, then the associated diphoton resonance will have a broad, adjustable width. We present simplified models which explain the diphoton excess through the three-body decay of a scalar or fermion. Our minimal ultraviolet completion is a weakly coupled and renormalizable theory of a singlet scalar plus a heavy vector-like quark and lepton. The smoking gun of this mechanism is an asymmetric diphoton peak recoiling against missing transverse energy, jets, or leptons.

  8. Broad-band strong motion simulations coupling k-square kinematic source models with empirical Green's functions: the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Gaudio, Sergio; Causse, Mathieu; Festa, Gaetano

    2015-10-01

    The use of simulated accelerograms may improve the evaluation of the seismic hazard when an accurate modelling of both source and propagation is performed. In this paper, we performed broad-band simulations of the 2009, M 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, coupling a k-2 kinematic model for the seismic source with empirical Green's functions (EGFs) as propagators. We extracted 10 EGFs candidates from a database of aftershocks satisfying quality criteria based on signal-to-noise ratio, fault proximity, small magnitude, similar focal mechanism and stress drop. For comparison with real observations, we also derived a low-frequency kinematic model, based on inversion of ground displacement as integrated from strong motion data. Kinematic properties of the inverted model (rupture velocity, position of the rupture nucleation, low-frequency slip and roughness degree of slip heterogeneity) were used as constraints in the k-2 model, to test the use of a single specific EGF against the use of the whole set of EGFs. Comparison to real observations based on spectral and peak ground acceleration shows that the use of all available EGFs improves the fit of simulations to real data. Moreover the epistemic variability related to the selection of a specific EGF is significantly larger (two to three times) than recent observations of between event variability, that is the variability associated with the randomness of the rupture process. We finally performed `blind' simulations releasing all the information on source kinematics and only considering the fault geometry and the magnitude of the target event as known features. We computed peak ground acceleration, acceleration Fourier and response spectra. Simulations follow the same trend with distance as real observations. In most cases these latter fall within one sigma from predictions. Predictions with source parameters constrained at low frequency do not perform better than `blind' simulations, showing that extrapolation of the low

  9. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prestele, Reinhard [Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands; Alexander, Peter [School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street Edinburgh EH89XP UK; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. [School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street Edinburgh EH89XP UK; Arneth, Almut [Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen Germany; Calvin, Katherine [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park MD 20740 USA; Doelman, Jonathan [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands; Eitelberg, David A. [Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands; Engström, Kerstin [Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12 Lund Sweden; Fujimori, Shinichiro [Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan; Hasegawa, Tomoko [Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan; Havlik, Petr [Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg Austria; Humpenöder, Florian [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03 14412 Potsdam Germany; Jain, Atul K. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Krisztin, Tamás [Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg Austria; Kyle, Page [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park MD 20740 USA; Meiyappan, Prasanth [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03 14412 Potsdam Germany; Sands, Ronald D. [Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC 20250 USA; Schaldach, Rüdiger [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47 D-34109 Kassel Germany; Schüngel, Jan [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47 D-34109 Kassel Germany; Stehfest, Elke [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands; Tabeau, Andrzej [LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703 2502 LS The Hague The Netherlands; Van Meijl, Hans [LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703 2502 LS The Hague The Netherlands; Van Vliet, Jasper [Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands; Verburg, Peter H. [Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

    2016-06-08

    Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of

  10. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  11. Modeling the potential contribution of land cover changes to the late twentieth century Sahel drought using a regional climate model: impact of lateral boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Xue, Yongkang

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates the potential impact of "idealized-but-realistic" land cover degradation on the late twentieth century Sahel drought using a regional climate model (RCM) driven with lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from three different sources, including one re-analysis data and two global climate models (GCMs). The impact of land cover degradation is quantified based on a large number of control-and-experiment pairs of simulations, where the experiment features a degraded land cover relative to the control. Two different approaches of experimental design are tested: in the 1st approach, the RCM land cover degradation experiment shares the same LBCs as the corresponding RCM control, which can be derived from either reanalysis data or a GCM; with the 2nd approach, the LBCs for the RCM control are derived from a GCM control, and the LBCs for the RCM land cover degradation experiment are derived from a corresponding GCM land cover degradation experiment. When the 1st approach is used, results from the RCM driven with the three different sources of LBCs are generally consistent with each other, indicating robustness of the model response against LBCs; when the 2nd approach is used, the RCM results show strong sensitivity to the source of LBCs and the response in the RCM is dominated by the response of the driving GCMs. The spatiotemporal pattern of the precipitation response to land cover degradation as simulated by RCM using the 1st approach closely resembles that of the observed historical changes, while results from the GCMs and the RCM using the 2nd approach bear less similarity to observations. Compared with the 1st approach, the 2nd approach has the advantage of capturing the impact on large scale circulation, but has the disadvantage of being influenced by the GCMs' internal variability and any potential erroneous response of the driving GCMs to land degradation. The 2nd approach therefore requires a large ensemble to reduce the uncertainties derived

  12. Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: an application of Dinamica EGO model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Wei; Gao, Zhiqiang; Li, Zhihua; Chen, Maosi

    2012-10-01

    Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-use change, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resource utilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-use change, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has been widely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with data extracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify the feasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change of China in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, the grassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billion hectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries. Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use area estimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.

  13. Geo-information Based Spatio-temporal Modeling of Urban Land Use and Land Cover Change in Butwal Municipality, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, U. K.

    2014-11-01

    Unscientific utilization of land use and land cover due to rapid growth of urban population deteriorates urban condition. Urban growth, land use change and future urban land demand are key concerns of urban planners. This paper is aimed to model urban land use change essential for sustainable urban development. GI science technology was employed to study the urban change dynamics using Markov Chain and CA-Markov and predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern. It was performed using the probability transition matrix from the Markov chain process, the suitability map of each land use/cover types and the contiguity filter. Suitability maps were generated from the MCE process where weight was derived from the pair wise comparison in the AHP process considering slope, land capability, distance to road, and settlement and water bodies as criterion of factor maps. Thematic land use land cover types of 1999, 2006, and 2013 of Landsat sensors were classified using MLC algorithm. The spatial extent increase from 1999 to 2013 in built up , bush and forest was observed to be 48.30 percent,79.48 percent and 7.79 percent, respectively, while decrease in agriculture and water bodies were 30.26 percent and 28.22 percent. The predicted urban LULC for 2020 and 2027 would provide useful inputs to the decision makers. Built up and bush expansion are explored as the main driving force for loss of agriculture and river areas and has the potential to continue in future also. The abandoned area of river bed has been converted to built- up areas.

  14. WRF model evaluation for the urban heat island assessment under varying land use/land cover and reference site conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Shweta; Mohan, Manju

    2016-10-01

    Urban heat island effect in Delhi has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.5) coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature. The estimated heat island intensities for different land use/land cover (LULC) have been compared with those derived from in situ and satellite observations. The model performs reasonably well for urban heat island intensity (UHI) estimation and is able to reproduce trend of UHI for urban areas. There is a significant improvement in model performance with inclusion of UCM which results in reduction in root mean-squared errors (RMSE) for temperatures from 1.63 °C (2.89 °C) to 1.13 °C (2.75 °C) for urban (non-urban) areas. Modification of LULC also improves performance for non-urban areas. High UHI zones and top 3 hotspots are captured well by the model. The relevance of selecting a reference point at the periphery of the city away from populated and built-up areas for UHI estimation is examined in the context of rapidly growing cities where rural areas are transforming fast into built-up areas, and reference site may not be appropriate for future years. UHI estimated by WRF model (with and without UCM) with respect to reference rural site compares well with the UHI based on observed in situ data. An alternative methodology is explored using a green area with minimum temperature within the city as a reference site. This alternative methodology works well with observed UHIs and WRF-UCM-simulated UHIs but has poor performance for WRF-simulated UHIs. It is concluded that WRF model can be applied for UHI estimation with classical methodology based on rural reference site. In general, many times WRF model performs satisfactorily, though WRF-UCM always shows a better performance. Hence, inclusion of appropriate representation of urban canopies and land use-land cover is important for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

  15. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Prestele

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs. The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use–climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use–climate interaction studies: (I provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes across spatial scales, and (III the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest

  16. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-05-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the

  17. Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swetnam, R D; Fisher, B; Mbilinyi, B P; Munishi, P K T; Willcock, S; Ricketts, T; Mwakalila, S; Balmford, A; Burgess, N D; Marshall, A R; Lewis, S L

    2011-03-01

    We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.

  18. How to model moon signals using 2-dimensional Gaussian function: Classroom activity for measuring nighttime cloud cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacal, G. F. B.; Lagrosas, N.

    2016-12-01

    Nowadays, cameras are commonly used by students. In this study, we use this instrument to look at moon signals and relate these signals to Gaussian functions. To implement this as a classroom activity, students need computers, computer software to visualize signals, and moon images. A normalized Gaussian function is often used to represent probability density functions of normal distribution. It is described by its mean m and standard deviation s. The smaller standard deviation implies less spread from the mean. For the 2-dimensional Gaussian function, the mean can be described by coordinates (x0, y0), while the standard deviations can be described by sx and sy. In modelling moon signals obtained from sky-cameras, the position of the mean (x0, y0) is solved by locating the coordinates of the maximum signal of the moon. The two standard deviations are the mean square weighted deviation based from the sum of total pixel values of all rows/columns. If visualized in three dimensions, the 2D Gaussian function appears as a 3D bell surface (Fig. 1a). This shape is similar to the pixel value distribution of moon signals as captured by a sky-camera. An example of this is illustrated in Fig 1b taken around 22:20 (local time) of January 31, 2015. The local time is 8 hours ahead of coordinated universal time (UTC). This image is produced by a commercial camera (Canon Powershot A2300) with 1s exposure time, f-stop of f/2.8, and 5mm focal length. One has to chose a camera with high sensitivity when operated at nighttime to effectively detect these signals. Fig. 1b is obtained by converting the red-green-blue (RGB) photo to grayscale values. The grayscale values are then converted to a double data type matrix. The last conversion process is implemented for the purpose of having the same scales for both Gaussian model and pixel distribution of raw signals. Subtraction of the Gaussian model from the raw data produces a moonless image as shown in Fig. 1c. This moonless image can be

  19. Hydrological response to Black Carbon deposition in seasonally snow covered catchments in Norway using two different atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matt, F.; Burkhart, J. F.; Pietikäinen, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Black Carbon (BC) has been shown to significantly impact snow melt through lowering the albedo of snow and increasing the absorption rate of short wave radiation. Yet few studies have investigated the effect of the enhanced melt on hydrological variability. BC sources for Norway are rather remote and deposition rates low. However, once deposited on snow even low concentrations of BC can have a detectable effect on the snow melt. Variations in snow melt have a direct impact on the snow cover duration and the timing and magnitude of peak outflow. In this study, we use two different atmospheric transport models (the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model FELXPART and the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM) and GAINS emissions to simulate deposition rates over Norway and Statkraft's Hydrologic Forecasting Toolbox (ShyFT) to simulate the impact of BC deposition on the seasonal snow melt. The Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model coupled to the snow routine of the hydrological model is used to determine the albedo of the snow as a function of the BC concentration in two snow layers. To investigate the impact range of BC on the seasonal snow melt, we simulate the catchment hydrology of catchments in south-east, south-west and northern Norway under the impact of deposition rates from both transport models, respectively. Comparing the deposition rates from the two transport models, we observe large differences in the seasonal cycle which in turn results in a significantly different response in the snow melt. Furthermore, we investigate the overall impact of BC deposition on the snow melt and duration on a catchment scale for both transport models.

  20. Simulation of the climatic effects of land use/land cover changes in eastern China using multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xianliang; Xiong, Zhe; Zhang, Xuezhen; Shi, Ying; Liu, Jiyuan; Shao, Quanqin; Yan, Xiaodong

    2017-07-01

    Human activities have caused substantial land use/cover change (LUCC) in China, especially in northeast China, the Loess Plateau and southern China. Three high-resolution regional climate models were used to simulate the impacts of LUCC on climate through one control experiment and three land use change experiments from 1980 to 2000. The results showed that multi-regional climate model ensemble simulations (the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)) provide more accurate results than a single model in over 70% grid cells of study regions. Uncertainty was reduced when using the two ensemble methods. The results of the AEM and BMA ensembles showed that the temperatures decreased by 0.2-0.4 °C in northeast China, the Yangtze river valley and the north of the Loess Plateau, and by 0.6-1.0 °C in the south of the Loess Plateau in spring, autumn and winter. The AEM precipitations changed by - 40-40 mm in in spring and winter, and by - 100-100 mm in summer and autumn, while the BMA precipitations changed by - 20-20 mm in spring, autumn and winter, and by - 50-50 mm in summer. The seasonal precipitation decreased in northeast China and the Yangtze river valley, and increased in the Loess Plateau in most grid cells of study regions. Winter and spring precipitation decreased more in the Yangtze river valley and the Loess Plateau than in northeast China.

  1. Modeling the effects of land cover and use on landscape capability for urban ungulate populations: Chapter 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Harold; Kilheffer, Chellby R.; Francis, Robert A.; Millington, James D. A.; Chadwick, Michael A.

    2016-01-01

    Expanding ungulate populations are causing concerns for wildlife professionals and residents in many urban areas worldwide. Nowhere is the phenomenon more apparent than in the eastern US, where urban white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations are increasing. Most habitat suitability models for deer have been developed in rural areas and across large (>1000 km2) spatial extents. Only recently have we begun to understand the factors that contribute to space use by deer over much smaller spatial extents. In this study, we explore the concepts, terminology, methodology and state-of-the-science in wildlife abundance modeling as applied to overabundant deer populations across heterogeneous urban landscapes. We used classified, high-resolution digital orthoimagery to extract landscape characteristics in several urban areas of upstate New York. In addition, we assessed deer abundance and distribution in 1-km2 blocks across each study area from either aerial surveys or ground-based distance sampling. We recorded the number of detections in each block and used binomial mixture models to explore important relationships between abundance and key landscape features. Finally, we cross-validated statistical models of abundance and compared covariate relationships across study sites. Study areas were characterized along a gradient of urbanization based on the proportions of impervious surfaces and natural vegetation which, based on the best-supported models, also distinguished blocks potentially occupied by deer. Models performed better at identifying occurrence of deer and worse at predicting abundance in cross-validation comparisons. We attribute poor predictive performance to differences in deer population trajectories over time. The proportion of impervious surfaces often yielded better predictions of abundance and occurrence than did the proportion of natural vegetation, which we attribute to a lack of certain land cover classes during cold and snowy winters

  2. Application and impacts of the GlobeLand30 land cover dataset on the Beijing Climate Center Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X.; Nie, S.; Ju, W.; Yu, L.

    2016-04-01

    Land cover (LC) is a necessary and important input variable of the land surface and climate model, and has significant impacts on climate and climate changes. In this paper, the new higher-resolution global LC dataset, GlobeLand30, was employed in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to investigate LC impacts on the land surface and climate via simulation experiments. The strategy for connecting the new LC dataset and model was to merge the GlobeLand30 data with other satellite remote sensing datasets to enlarge the plant function types (PFT) fitted for the BCC_CSM. The area-weighted up-scaling approach was used to aggregate the 30m-resolution GlobeLand30 data onto the coarser model grids and derive PFT as well as percentage information. The LC datasets of GlobeLand30 and the original BCC_CSM had generally consistent spatial features but with significant differences. Numerical simulations with these two LC datasets were conducted and compared to present the effects of the new GlobeLand30 data on the climate. Results show that with the new LC data products, several model biases between simulations and observations in the BCC climate model with original LC datasets were effectively reduced, including the positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere. Therefore, the GlobeLand30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of climate simulations.

  3. Inter-Algorithm Relationships for the Estimation of the Fraction of Vegetation Cover Based on a Two Endmember Linear Mixture Model with the VI Constraint

    OpenAIRE

    Kenta Obata; Hiroki Yoshioka

    2010-01-01

    Measurements of the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC), retrieved from remotely sensed reflectance spectra, serves as a useful measure of land cover changes on the regional and global scales. A linear mixture model (LMM) is frequently employed to analytically estimate the FVC using the spectral vegetation index (VI) as a constraint. Variations in the application of this algorithm arise due to differences in the choice of endmember spectra and VI model assumptions. As a result, the retrieved F...

  4. Modelling the effects of climate and land cover change on groundwater recharge in south-west Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, W.; Ali, R.; Varma, S.; Emelyanova, I.; Hodgson, G.; McFarlane, D.

    2012-05-01

    The groundwater resource contained within the sandy aquifers of the Swan Coastal Plain, south west Western Australia, provides approximately 60% of the drinking water for the metropolitan population of Perth. Rainfall decline over the past three decades coupled with increasing water demand from a growing population has resulted in falling dam storage and groundwater levels. Projected future changes in climate across south-west Western Australia consistently show a decline in annual rainfall of between 5 and 15%. There is expected to be a continuing reduction of diffuse recharge across the Swan Coastal Plain. This study aims to quantify the change in groundwater recharge in response to a range of future climate and land cover patterns across south-west Western Australia. Modelling the impact on the groundwater resource of potential climate change was achieved with a dynamically linked unsaturated/saturated groundwater model. A Vertical Flux Manager was used in the unsaturated zone to estimate groundwater recharge using a variety of simple and complex models based on land cover type (e.g. native trees, plantation, cropping, urban, wetland), soil type, and taking into account the groundwater depth. These recharge estimates were accumulated on a daily basis for both observed and projected climate scenarios and used in a MODFLOW simulation with monthly stress periods. In the area centred on the city of Perth, Western Australia, the patterns of recharge change and groundwater level change are not consistent spatially, or consistently downward. In the Dandaragan Plateau to the north-east of Perth there has been groundwater level rise since the 1970s associated with land clearing, and with rainfall projected to reduce the least in this area the groundwater levels are estimated to continue to rise. Along the coastal zone north of Perth there is an interaction between projected rainfall decline and legislated removal to pine forests. This results in areas of increasing

  5. Modelling the effects of climate and land cover change on groundwater recharge in south-west Western Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Dawes

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The groundwater resource contained within the sandy aquifers of the Swan Coastal Plain, south west Western Australia, provides approximately 60% of the drinking water for the metropolitan population of Perth. Rainfall decline over the past three decades coupled with increasing water demand from a growing population has resulted in falling dam storage and groundwater levels. Projected future changes in climate across south-west Western Australia consistently show a decline in annual rainfall of between 5 and 15%. There is expected to be a continuing reduction of diffuse recharge across the Swan Coastal Plain. This study aims to quantify the change in groundwater recharge in response to a range of future climate and land cover patterns across south-west Western Australia.

    Modelling the impact on the groundwater resource of potential climate change was achieved with a dynamically linked unsaturated/saturated groundwater model. A Vertical Flux Manager was used in the unsaturated zone to estimate groundwater recharge using a variety of simple and complex models based on land cover type (e.g. native trees, plantation, cropping, urban, wetland, soil type, and taking into account the groundwater depth. These recharge estimates were accumulated on a daily basis for both observed and projected climate scenarios and used in a MODFLOW simulation with monthly stress periods.

    In the area centred on the city of Perth, Western Australia, the patterns of recharge change and groundwater level change are not consistent spatially, or consistently downward. In the Dandaragan Plateau to the north-east of Perth there has been groundwater level rise since the 1970s associated with land clearing, and with rainfall projected to reduce the least in this area the groundwater levels are estimated to continue to rise. Along the coastal zone north of Perth there is an interaction between projected rainfall decline and legislated removal to pine forests. This

  6. Modelling of flashover performance of an ice-covered resistive glazed post station insulator in presence of an air gap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaiswal, Vinay [NSERC/Hydro-Quebec/UQAC Industrial Chair on Atmospheric Icing of Power Network Equipment (CIGELE) and Canada Research Chair on Engineering of Power Network Atmospheric Icing (INGIVRE), Universite du Quebec a Chicoutimi, Quebec, G7H 2B1 (Canada); Farzaneh, Masoud [NSERC/Hydro-Quebec/UQAC Industrial Chair on Atmospheric Icing of Power Network Equipment (CIGELE) and Canada Research Chair on Engineering of Power Network Atmospheric Icing (INGIVRE), Universite du Quebec a Chicoutimi, Quebec, G7H 2B1 (Canada)

    2006-01-07

    The main objective of this paper is to study the electric field distributions around a standard post insulator for the power frequency, lightning impulse (1.2/50 {mu}s) and switching impulse (250/2500 {mu}s) voltages under icing conditions, and these were computed numerically using the finite element method. Thin glaze coating on the insulator requires a very large number of elements for finite element analysis because of the open boundary around the ice-covered insulator. To reduce the number of elements and hence computation time, the region between the domain of interest and infinity was modelled by a form of Kelvin transformation. The simulation results, confirmed by laboratory experiments, show that while a lightning impulse is the limiting factor in the design of a resistive glazed insulator under clean conditions, a switching impulse is the limiting factor under icing conditions.

  7. Modelling of INTER-Linkages Between LAND Cover Pattern and Socio-Economic Factors in the Idemili River Basin of South Eastern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maduekwe, N. I.; Adesina, F. A.

    2014-12-01

    This study explores the inter-relationships between socio-economic factors and land cover pattern in the Idemili River Basin of South Eastern Nigeria. It is based on the concept of coupled human environment systems and focuses on the modelling of community scale relationships between critical land cover parameter and socio-demographic, economic and cultural factors in the basin. The modelling was implemented with pixel level NDVI indicators of vegetation cover density developed from NigeriaSat image with 32m resolution linked to eight indicators of socio-economic factors developed from a household survey of the basin. NDVI and socio-economic data were matched for 25 sampled localities in the basin and their relationships modelled with correlation, regression and Principal Component Analysis statistics. NDVI based image analysis showed a high level of human impact on vegetation. The Model output shows that bivariate relationships between vegetation cover dynamics and socio-demographic variables were the most significant, with R Square values > 0.60 for linear and non linear models. Vegetation cover density has high inverse correlations with population, urbanization levels and number of households in localities. Population/urbanization status of localities was also the most significant Principal Component or underlying dimension linked to spatial dynamics of vegetation cover in the basin accounting for 50% of factor variations. Relationships between vegetation cover densities and economic factors (occupational and household energy patterns) and socio-cultural factors (environmental knowledge, values and governance) were weaker and less significant. The study captured the linkages between landcover- represented by vegetation cover- and socio-economic parameters. It demonstrates that socio-economic factors are major drivers of change in the basin. Key Words: Socio-economic factors, Vegetation Cover, NDVI, Socio-ecological Systems, State Variables, South Eastern Nigeria

  8. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  9. Global land-cover and land-use change of the last 6000 years for climate modelling studies: the PAGES LandCover6k initiative and its first achievements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Morrison, Kathleen; Madella, Marco; Whitehouse, Nicki J.; Pages Landcover6k Sub-Coordinators

    2016-04-01

    The goal of the PAGES LandCover6k initiative is to provide relevant, empirical data on past anthropogenic land-cover change (land-use change) to climate modellers (e.g. the CMIP5 initiative). Land-use change is one of many climate forcings and its effect on climate is still badly understood. Among the effects of land-cover change on climate, the best known are the biogeochemical effects, and in particular the influence on the exchange of CO2 between the land surface and the atmosphere. The biogeophysical effects are less well understood, i.e. the net effect of changes in the albedo and evapotranspiration is complex. Moreover, the net effect of both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes due to land-use change is still a matter of debate. The LandCover6k working group infers land-use data from fossil pollen records from lake sediments and peat deposits, and from historical archives and archaeological records (including pollen and other palaeoecological records such as wood and plant micro/macroremains). The working group is divided into two activities, i) pollen-based reconstructions of past land cover using pollen-vegetation modelling approaches, and mapping of pollen-based land-cover change using spatial statistics (e.g. Trondman et al., 2015; Pirzimanbein et al., 2014), and ii) upscaling and summarizing historical and archaeological data into maps of major land-use categories linked to quantitative attributes. Studies on pollen productivity of major plant taxa are an essential part of activity i). Pollen productivity estimates are available for a large number of the northern hemisphere, major plant taxa, but are still missing for large parts of the tropics for which research is currently in progress. The results of both activities are then used to revise existing Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change (ALCC) scenarios, the HYDE database (Klein-Goldewijk et al.,) and KK (Kaplan et al.,). Climate modellers (e.g. the CMIP5 initiative) can use the LandCover6k products

  10. Worldwide cloud cover model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, O. E.; Sommerville, P. N.

    1979-01-01

    Classifying worldwide cloudiness into homogeneous regions, using a satellite data set containing day IR, night IR, incoming, and absorbed solar radiation measurements on a 2.5-degree latitude-longitude grid is considered. Methods of analysis are presented.

  11. Predicting land use change on a broad area: Dyna-CLUE model application to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano (Campania, South Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Pindozzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-standing awareness of the environmental impact of land-use change (LUC has led scientific community to develop tools able to predict their amount and to evaluate their effect on environment, with the aim supporting policy makers in their planning activities. This paper proposes an implementation of the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model applied to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano, an area of Campania region, which needs interventions for environmental remediation. Future land use changes were simulated in two different scenarios developed under alternative strategies of land management: scenario 1 is a simple projection of the recent LUC trend, while scenario 2 hypothesises the introduction of no-food crops, such as poplar (Populus nigra L. and giant reed (Arundo donax L., in addition to a less impactful urban sprawl, which is one of the main issues in the study area. The overall duration of simulations was 13 years, subdivided into yearly time steps. CORINE land cover map of 2006 was used as baseline for land use change detection in the study area. Competition between different land use types is taken into account by setting the conversion elasticity, a parameter ranging from 0 to 1, according to their capital investment level. Location suitability for each land use type is based on logit model. Since no actual land use already exists for the alternative crops investigated in scenario 2, a suitability map realised through a spatial multicriteria decision analysis was used as a proxy for its land use pattern. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 1, evaluated through the application of Kappa statistics, showed a general tendency to expansion of built-up areas, with an increase of about 2400 ha (1.5% of the total surface, at the expense of agricultural land and those covered by natural vegetation. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 2 showed a less significant spread of built

  12. Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based dataset covering years 1600–present

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Peter

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now not only linked to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for General-Circulation-Model (GCM and Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions are in good agreement with observations. By providing accurate amplitude and spatial distributions of shortwave and longwave radiative perturbations by volcanic sulfate aerosols, we argue that this volcanic forcing may help refine the climate model responses to the large volcanic eruptions since 1600. The final dataset consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

  13. Development of a monoclonal antibody-based broad-specificity ELISA for fluroquinolone antibiotics in foods and molecular modeling studies of cross-reactive compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Development of a competitive indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ciELISA) with monoclonal antibodies (Mabs) having broad specificity for fluoroquinolone (FQ) antibiotics is described. Four FQs, ciprofloxacin (CIP), norfloxacin (NOR), enrofloxacin (ENR) and ofloxacin (OFL) were conjugated to...

  14. What do moisture recycling estimates tell? Lessons from an extreme global land-cover change model experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. F. Goessling

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Moisture evaporated from the continents (recycled moisture contributes up to 80% to the total atmospheric moisture content and, hence, precipitation in some regions. Recycling estimates are traditionally used to indicate a region's rainfall-dependence on land-surface evaporation. Accordingly, recycling estimates are employed to deduce the hydrological consequences of land-cover change. However, moisture is not a passive but an active constituent of the atmosphere. Recent studies indicate that at small scales (up to 1000 km local to regional evaporation-precipitation coupling by far dominates the atmospheric precipitation response, while the water-balance effect from moisture recycling in the traditional sense seems to be of minor importance. The value of moisture recycling estimates as indicator for consequences of land-cover change is therefore questionable. However, since atmospheric moisture is still subject to mass conservation, the relevance of moisture recycling may come into play at the continental scale.

    To explore the relevance of recycling estimates regarding land-cover change at the continental scale, we conduct two global experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model: (I with present-day conditions and (II with extreme land-cover change conditions, namely with totally suppressed continental evaporation. Using the simulated fields of moisture, wind, and evaporation from the present-day experiment, we quantify continental moisture recycling with a vertically integrating tracing scheme. We then compare the computed recycling patterns with the hydrological changes that follow the suppression of continental evaporation.

    While under present-day conditions the fraction of recycled moisture increases from continental upstream to downstream regions with respect to the prevailing winds, the suppression of continental evaporation leads to severe precipitation loss in almost all continental regions, no matter if

  15. A jet-dominated model for a broad-band spectral energy distribution of the nearby low-luminosity active galactic nucleus in M94

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oers, Pieter; Markoff, Sera; Uttley, Phil; McHardy, Ian; van der Laan, Tessel; Donovan Meyer, Jennifer; Connors, Riley

    2017-06-01

    We have compiled a new multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) for the closest obscured low-ionization emission-line region active galactic nucleus (AGN), NGC 4736, also known as M94. The SED comprises mainly high-resolution (mostly sub-arcsecond, or, at the distance to M94, ≲23 pc from the nucleus) observations from the literature, archival data, as well as previously unpublished sub-millimetre data from the Plateau de Bure Interferometer (PdBI) and the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy, in conjunction with new electronic MultiElement Radio Interferometric Network (e-MERLIN) L-band (1.5 GHz) observations. Thanks to the e-MERLIN resolution and sensitivity, we resolve for the first time a double structure composed of two radio sources separated by ˜1 arcsec, previously observed only at higher frequency. We explore this data set, which further includes non-simultaneous data from the Very Large Array, the Gemini telescope, the Hubble Space Telescope and the Chandra X-ray observatory, in terms of an outflow-dominated model. We compare our results with previous trends found for other AGN using the same model (NGC 4051, M81*, M87 and Sgr A*), as well as hard- and quiescent-state X-ray binaries. We find that the nuclear broad-band spectrum of M94 is consistent with a relativistic outflow of low inclination. The findings in this work add to the growing body of evidence that the physics of weakly accreting black holes scales with mass in a rather straightforward fashion.

  16. Modeling land use and land cover changes in a vulnerable coastal region using artificial neural networks and cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiang, Yi; Lam, Nina S N

    2015-03-01

    As one of the most vulnerable coasts in the continental USA, the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) region has endured numerous hazards over the past decades. The sustainability of this region has drawn great attention from the international, national, and local communities, wanting to understand how the region as a system develops under intense interplay between the natural and human factors. A major problem in this deltaic region is significant land loss over the years due to a combination of natural and human factors. The main scientific and management questions are what factors contribute to the land use land cover (LULC) changes in this region, can we model the changes, and how would the LULC look like in the future given the current factors? This study analyzed the LULC changes of the region between 1996 and 2006 by utilizing an artificial neural network (ANN) to derive the LULC change rules from 15 human and natural variables. The rules were then used to simulate future scenarios in a cellular automation model. A stochastic element was added in the model to represent factors that were not included in the current model. The analysis was conducted for two sub-regions in the study area for comparison. The results show that the derived ANN models could simulate the LULC changes with a high degree of accuracy (above 92 % on average). A total loss of 263 km(2) in wetlands from 2006 to 2016 was projected, whereas the trend of forest loss will cease. These scenarios provide useful information to decision makers for better planning and management of the region.

  17. Modeling biophysical properties of broad-leaved stands in the hyrcanian forests of Iran using fused airborne laser scanner data and ultraCam-D images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Jahangir; Shataee, Shaban; Namiranian, Manochehr; Næsset, Erik

    2017-09-01

    Inventories of mixed broad-leaved forests of Iran mainly rely on terrestrial measurements. Due to rapid changes and disturbances and great complexity of the silvicultural systems of these multilayer forests, frequent repetition of conventional ground-based plot surveys is often cost prohibitive. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and multispectral data offer an alternative or supplement to conventional inventories in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. In this study, the capability of a combination of ALS and UltraCam-D data to model stand volume, tree density, and basal area using random forest (RF) algorithm was evaluated. Systematic sampling was applied to collect field plot data on a 150 m × 200 m sampling grid within a 1100 ha study area located at 36°38‧- 36°42‧N and 54°24‧-54°25‧E. A total of 308 circular plots (0.1 ha) were measured for calculation of stand volume, tree density, and basal area per hectare. For each plot, a set of variables was extracted from both ALS and multispectral data. The RF algorithm was used for modeling of the biophysical properties using ALS and UltraCam-D data separately and combined. The results showed that combining the ALS data and UltraCam-D images provided a slight increase in prediction accuracy compared to separate modeling. The RMSE as percentage of the mean, the mean difference between observed and predicted values, and standard deviation of the differences using a combination of ALS data and UltraCam-D images in an independent validation at 0.1-ha plot level were 31.7%, 1.1%, and 84 m3 ha-1 for stand volume; 27.2%, 0.86%, and 6.5 m2 ha-1 for basal area, and 35.8%, -4.6%, and 77.9 n ha-1 for tree density, respectively. Based on the results, we conclude that fusion of ALS and UltraCam-D data may be useful for modeling of stand volume, basal area, and tree density and thus gain insights into structural characteristics in the complex Hyrcanian forests.

  18. Sganzerla Cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor da Rosa

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7917.2014v19n1p158 Neste artigo, realizo uma leitura do cinema de Rogério Sganzerla, desde o clássico O bandido da luz vermelha até os documentários filmados na década de oitenta, a partir de duas noções centrais: cover e over. Para isso, parto de uma controvérsia com o ensaio de Ismail Xavier, Alegorias do subdesenvolvimento, em que o crítico realiza uma leitura do cinema brasileiro da década de sessenta através do conceito de alegoria; depois releio uma série de textos críticos do próprio Sganzerla, publicados em Edifício Sganzerla, procurando repensar as ideias de “herói vazio” ou “cinema impuro” e sugerindo assim uma nova relação do seu cinema com o tempo e a representação; então busco articular tais ideias com certos procedimentos de vanguarda, como a falsificação, a cópia, o clichê e a colagem; e finalmente procuro mostrar que, no cinema de Sganzerla, a partir principalmente de suas reflexões sobre Orson Welles, a voz é usada de maneira a deformar a interpretação naturalista.

  19. Cover Picture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuning; Ruben; Lehn; Renz; Garcia; Ksenofontov; Gütlich; Wegelius; Rissanen

    2000-07-17

    The cover picture shows how both, fine arts and science, avail themselves of a system of intertwined symbolic and iconic languages. They make use of a common set of abstracted signs to report on their results. Thus, already in 1925, Wassily Kandinsky painted a masterpiece (bottom), which now, 75 years later, might be regarded as a blueprint for a scientific project. In his painting, Kandinsky pictured a grid-shaped sign that resembles in effect an actual molecular switch. Apparently following an enigmatic protocol, the groups of Lehn and Gütlich (see p. 2504 ff. for more details) constructed a grid-type inorganic architecture that operates as a three-level magnetic switch (center) triggered by three external perturbations (p, T, hnu). The switching principle is based on the spin-crossover phenomenon of Fe(II) ions and can be monitored by Mössbauer spectroscopy (left) and magnetic measurements (rear). Maybe not by chance, the English translation of the title of the painting "signs" is a homonym of "science", since both presented works are a product of the insatiable curiosity of man and his untiring desire to recognize his existence.

  20. Incorporating moisture content in modeling the surface energy balance of debris-covered Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giese, Alexandra; Boone, Aaron; Morin, Samuel; Lejeune, Yves; Wagnon, Patrick; Dumont, Marie; Hawley, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Glaciers whose ablation zones are covered in supraglacial debris comprise a significant portion of glaciers in High Mountain Asia and two-thirds in the South Central Himalaya. Such glaciers evade traditional proxies for mass balance because they are difficult to delineate remotely and because they lose volume via thinning rather than via retreat. Additionally, their surface energy balance is significantly more complicated than their clean counterparts' due to a conductive heat flux from the debris-air interface to the ice-debris boundary, where melt occurs. This flux is a function of the debris' thickness; thermal, radiative, and physical properties; and moisture content. To date, few surface energy balance models have accounted for debris moisture content and phase changes despite the fact that they are well-known to affect fluxes of mass, latent heat, and conduction. In this study, we introduce a new model, ISBA-DEB, which is capable of solving not only the heat equation but also moisture transport and retention in the debris. The model is based upon Meteo-France's Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) soil and vegetation model, significantly adapted for debris and coupled with the snowpack model Crocus within the SURFEX platform. We drive the model with continuous ERA-Interim reanalysis data, adapted to the local topography (i.e. considering local elevation and shadowing) and downscaled and de-biased using 5 years of in-situ meteorological data at Changri Nup glacier [(27.859N, 86.847E)] in the Khumbu Himal. The 1-D model output is then evaluated through comparison with measured temperature in and ablation under a 10-cm thick debris layer on Changri Nup. We have found that introducing a non-equilibrium model for water flow, rather than using the mixed-form Richard's equation alone, promotes greater consistency with moisture observations. This explicit incorporation of moisture processes improves simulation of the snow-debris-ice column

  1. Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bathiany

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Afforestation and reforestation have become popular instruments of climate mitigation policy, as forests are known to store large quantities of carbon. However, they also modify the fluxes of energy, water and momentum at the land surface. Previous studies have shown that these biogeophysical effects can counteract the carbon drawdown and, in boreal latitudes, even overcompensate it due to large albedo differences between forest canopy and snow. This study investigates the role forest cover plays for global climate by conducting deforestation and afforestation experiments with the earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM. Complete deforestation of the tropics (18.75° S–15° N exerts a global warming of 0.4 °C due to an increase in CO2 concentration by initially 60 ppm and a decrease in evapotranspiration in the deforested areas. In the northern latitudes (45° N–90° N, complete deforestation exerts a global cooling of 0.25 °C after 100 years, while afforestation leads to an equally large warming, despite the counteracting changes in CO2 concentration. Earlier model studies are qualitatively confirmed by these findings. As the response of temperature as well as terrestrial carbon pools is not of equal sign at every land cell, considering forests as cooling in the tropics and warming in high latitudes seems to be true only for the spatial mean, but not on a local scale.

  2. Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bathiany

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Afforestation and reforestation have become popular instruments of climate mitigation policy, as forests are known to store large quantities of carbon. However, they also modify the fluxes of energy, water and momentum at the land surface. Previous studies have shown that these biogeophysical effects can counteract the carbon drawdown and, in boreal latitudes, even overcompensate it due to large albedo differences between forest canopy and snow. This study investigates the role forest cover plays for global climate by conducting deforestation and afforestation experiments with the earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM. Complete deforestation of the tropics (18.75° S–15° N exerts a global warming of 0.4 °C due to an increase in CO2 concentration by initially 60 ppm and a decrease in evapotranspiration in the deforested areas. In the northern latitudes (45° N–90° N, complete deforestation exerts a global cooling of 0.25 °C after 100 years, while afforestation leads to an equally large warming, despite the counteracting changes in CO2 concentration. Earlier model studies are qualitatively confirmed by these findings. As the response of temperature as well as terrestrial carbon pools is not of equal sign at every land cell, considering forests as cooling in the tropics and warming in high latitudes seems to be true only for the spatial mean, but not on a local scale.

  3. Coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata spatial models to predict land cover changes (case study: upper Ci Leungsi catchment area)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, K.; Zulkarnain, F.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2016-11-01

    Land cover changes particular in urban catchment area has been rapidly occur. Land cover changes occur as a result of increasing demand for built-up area. Various kinds of environmental and hydrological problems e.g. floods and urban heat island can happen if the changes are uncontrolled. This study aims to predict land cover changes using coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata. One of the most rapid land cover changes is occurs at upper Ci Leungsi catchment area that located near Bekasi City and Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Markov chains has a good ability to predict the probability of change statistically while cellular automata believed as a powerful method in reading the spatial patterns of change. Temporal land cover data was obtained by remote sensing satellite imageries. In addition, this study also used multi-criteria analysis to determine which driving factor that could stimulate the changes such as proximity, elevation, and slope. Coupling of these two methods could give better prediction model rather than just using it separately. The prediction model was validated using existing 2015 land cover data and shown a satisfactory kappa coefficient. The most significant increasing land cover is built-up area from 24% to 53%.

  4. Two-structure thermodynamics for the TIP4P/2005 model of water covering supercooled and deeply stretched regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, John W.; Singh, Rakesh S.; Sparano, Evan M.; Ricci, Francesco; González, Miguel A.; Valeriani, Chantal; Abascal, José L. F.; Debenedetti, Pablo G.; Anisimov, Mikhail A.; Caupin, Frédéric

    2017-01-01

    One of the most promising frameworks for understanding the anomalies of cold and supercooled water postulates the existence of two competing, interconvertible local structures. If the non-ideality in the Gibbs energy of mixing overcomes the ideal entropy of mixing of these two structures, a liquid-liquid phase transition, terminated at a liquid-liquid critical point, is predicted. Various versions of the "two-structure equation of state" (TSEOS) based on this concept have shown remarkable agreement with both experimental data for metastable, deeply supercooled water and simulations of molecular water models. However, existing TSEOSs were not designed to describe the negative pressure region and do not account for the stability limit of the liquid state with respect to the vapor. While experimental data on supercooled water at negative pressures may shed additional light on the source of the anomalies of water, such data are very limited. To fill this gap, we have analyzed simulation results for TIP4P/2005, one of the most accurate classical water models available. We have used recently published simulation data, and performed additional simulations, over a broad range of positive and negative pressures, from ambient temperature to deeply supercooled conditions. We show that, by explicitly incorporating the liquid-vapor spinodal into a TSEOS, we are able to match the simulation data for TIP4P/2005 with remarkable accuracy. In particular, this equation of state quantitatively reproduces the lines of extrema in density, isothermal compressibility, and isobaric heat capacity. Contrary to an explanation of the thermodynamic anomalies of water based on a "retracing spinodal," the liquid-vapor spinodal in the present TSEOS continues monotonically to lower pressures upon cooling, influencing but not giving rise to density extrema and other thermodynamic anomalies.

  5. A novel, selective inhibitor of fibroblast growth factor receptors that shows a potent broad spectrum of antitumor activity in several tumor xenograft models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Genshi; Li, Wei-Ying; Chen, Daohong; Henry, James R; Li, Hong-Yu; Chen, Zhaogen; Zia-Ebrahimi, Mohammad; Bloem, Laura; Zhai, Yan; Huss, Karen; Peng, Sheng-Bin; McCann, Denis J

    2011-11-01

    The fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFR) are tyrosine kinases that are present in many types of endothelial and tumor cells and play an important role in tumor cell growth, survival, and migration as well as in maintaining tumor angiogenesis. Overexpression of FGFRs or aberrant regulation of their activities has been implicated in many forms of human malignancies. Therefore, targeting FGFRs represents an attractive strategy for development of cancer treatment options by simultaneously inhibiting tumor cell growth, survival, and migration as well as tumor angiogenesis. Here, we describe a potent, selective, small-molecule FGFR inhibitor, (R)-(E)-2-(4-(2-(5-(1-(3,5-Dichloropyridin-4-yl)ethoxy)-1H-indazol-3yl)vinyl)-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)ethanol, designated as LY2874455. This molecule is active against all 4 FGFRs, with a similar potency in biochemical assays. It exhibits a potent activity against FGF/FGFR-mediated signaling in several cancer cell lines and shows an excellent broad spectrum of antitumor activity in several tumor xenograft models representing the major FGF/FGFR relevant tumor histologies including lung, gastric, and bladder cancers and multiple myeloma, and with a well-defined pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic relationship. LY2874455 also exhibits a 6- to 9-fold in vitro and in vivo selectivity on inhibition of FGF- over VEGF-mediated target signaling in mice. Furthermore, LY2874455 did not show VEGF receptor 2-mediated toxicities such as hypertension at efficacious doses. Currently, this molecule is being evaluated for its potential use in the clinic.

  6. Assimilation of snow cover and snow depth into a snow model to estimate snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stigter, Emmy E.; Wanders, Niko; Saloranta, Tuomo M.; Shea, Joseph M.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2017-07-01

    Snow is an important component of water storage in the Himalayas. Previous snowmelt studies in the Himalayas have predominantly relied on remotely sensed snow cover. However, snow cover data provide no direct information on the actual amount of water stored in a snowpack, i.e., the snow water equivalent (SWE). Therefore, in this study remotely sensed snow cover was combined with in situ observations and a modified version of the seNorge snow model to estimate (climate sensitivity of) SWE and snowmelt runoff in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. Snow cover data from Landsat 8 and the MOD10A2 snow cover product were validated with in situ snow cover observations provided by surface temperature and snow depth measurements resulting in classification accuracies of 85.7 and 83.1 % respectively. Optimal model parameter values were obtained through data assimilation of MOD10A2 snow maps and snow depth measurements using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Independent validations of simulated snow depth and snow cover with observations show improvement after data assimilation compared to simulations without data assimilation. The approach of modeling snow depth in a Kalman filter framework allows for data-constrained estimation of snow depth rather than snow cover alone, and this has great potential for future studies in complex terrain, especially in the Himalayas. Climate sensitivity tests with the optimized snow model revealed that snowmelt runoff increases in winter and the early melt season (December to May) and decreases during the late melt season (June to September) as a result of the earlier onset of snowmelt due to increasing temperature. At high elevation a decrease in SWE due to higher air temperature is (partly) compensated by an increase in precipitation, which emphasizes the need for accurate predictions on the changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation along with changes in temperature.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

    OpenAIRE

    A. M. Dieye; Roy, D.P.; N. P. Hanan; Liu, S.(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Peking University, Beijing, China); Hansen, M.; Touré, A.

    2011-01-01

    Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SO...

  8. Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poulter, B.; MacBean, N.; Hartley, A.; Khlystova, I.; Arino, O.; Betts, R.; Bontemps, S.; Boettcher, M.; Brockmann, C.; Defourny, P.; Hagemann, S.; Herold, M.; Kirches, C.; Lamarche, C.; Lederer, D.; Ottlé, C.; Peters, M.; Peylin, P.

    2015-01-01

    Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land cover data sets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily trans

  9. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; Mclennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impa

  10. Cloud Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffhauser, Dian

    2012-01-01

    This article features a major statewide initiative in North Carolina that is showing how a consortium model can minimize risks for districts and help them exploit the advantages of cloud computing. Edgecombe County Public Schools in Tarboro, North Carolina, intends to exploit a major cloud initiative being refined in the state and involving every…

  11. Estimation of stand crown cover using a generalized crown diameter model: application for the analysis of Portuguese cork oak stands stocking evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo JA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A generalized non-linear tree crown diameter model was developed with the aim of allowing the computation of tree crown diameter over a large range of tree dimensions, and allowing its inclusion in forest growth and yield models. The model was formulated to provide biological meaning to the predicted values. Due to the nested structure of the data analyzed (trees within stands, both mixed- and fixed-effect models were developed. Since tree crown diameter is not frequently measured in forest inventories, the validation of the mixed model was carried out by considering the population specific response. The results demonstrate that when the measurements required for the mixed model calibration are not available, the use of the fixed effect model results in less biased and more accurate estimates. The fixed model was applied to the data from the two last Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI to analyze the change in stand crown cover and assess the stocking evolution of cork oak stands in Portugal between 1996 and 2006. Results showed an increase in the frequency of stands with crown cover lower than 20%, as well as a decrease in the frequency of stands with crown cover between 20 and 40%. Average crown cover values were significantly different in the two NFI, with a decrease from 28.0 to 26.5% over the considered period.

  12. Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Li, N.; Xiang, B.; Wang, X.; Ye, B.; McGuire, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Soil surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to

  13. Global, Broad, or Specific Cognitive Differences? Using a MIMIC Model to Examine Differences in CHC Abilities in Children with Learning Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niileksela, Christopher R.; Reynolds, Matthew R.

    2014-01-01

    This study was designed to better understand the relations between learning disabilities and different levels of latent cognitive abilities, including general intelligence (g), broad cognitive abilities, and specific abilities based on the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory of intelligence (CHC theory). Data from the "Differential Ability…

  14. Microlensing Constraints on Broad Absorption and Emission Line Flows in the Quasar H1413+117

    CERN Document Server

    O'Dowd, Matthew J; Webster, Rachel L; Labrie, Kathleen; Rogers, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    We present new integral field spectroscopy of the gravitationally lensed broad absorption line (BAL) quasar H1413+117, covering the ultraviolet to visible rest-frame spectral range. We observe strong microlensing signatures in lensed image D, and we use this microlensing to simultaneously constrain both the broad emission and broad absorption line gas. By modeling the lens system over the range of probable lensing galaxy redshifts and using on a new argument based on the wavelength-independence of the broad line lensing magnifications, we determine that there is no significant broad line emission from smaller than ~20 light days. We also perform spectral decomposition to derive the intrinsic broad emission line (BEL) and continuum spectrum, subject to BAL absorption. We also reconstruct the intrinsic BAL absorption profile, whose features allow us to constrain outflow kinematics in the context of a disk-wind model. We find a very sharp, blueshifted onset of absorption of 1,500 km/s in both C IV and N V that m...

  15. Urban Land Cover Change Modelling Using Time-Series Satellite Images: A Case Study of Urban Growth in Five Cities of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah F. Alqurashi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the expansion of urban growth and land cover changes in five Saudi Arabian cities (Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, Al-Taif and the Eastern Area using Landsat images for the 1985, 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2014 time periods. The classification was carried out using object-based image analysis (OBIA to create land cover maps. The classified images were used to predict the land cover changes and urban growth for 2024 and 2034. The simulation model integrated the Markov chain (MC and Cellular Automata (CA modelling methods and the simulated maps were compared and validated to the reference maps. The simulation results indicated high accuracy of the MC–CA integrated models. The total agreement between the simulated and the reference maps was >92% for all the simulation years. The results indicated that all five cities showed a massive urban growth between 1985 and 2014 and the predicted results showed that urban expansion is likely to continue going for 2024 and 2034 periods. The transition probabilities of land cover, such as vegetation and water, are most likely to be urban areas, first through conversion to bare soil and then to urban land use. Integrating of time-series satellite images and the MC–CA models provides a better understanding of the past, current and future patterns of land cover changes and urban growth in this region. Simulation of urban growth will help planners to develop sustainable expansion policies that may reduce the future environmental impacts.

  16. Seasonal land-cover regions of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveland, Thomas R.; Merchant, James W.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Ohlen, Donald O.; Reed, Bradley C.; Olson, Paul; Hutchinson, John

    1995-01-01

    Global-change investigations have been hindered by deficiencies in the availability and quality of land-cover data. The US Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln have collaborated on the development of a new approach to land-cover characterization that attempts to address requirements of the global-change research community and others interested in regional patterns of land cover. An experimental 1-km-resolution database of land-cover characteristics for the coterminous US has been prepared to test and evaluate the approach. Using multidate Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data complemented by elevation, climate, ecoregions, and other digital spatial datasets, the authors define 15?? seasonal land-cover regions. Data are used in the construction of an illustrative 1:7500 000-scale map of the seasonal land-cover regions as well as of smaller-scale maps portraying general land cover and seasonality. The seasonal land-cover characteristics database can also be tailored to provide a broad range of other landscape parameters useful in national and global-scale environmental modeling and assessment. -from Authors

  17. Multiple-scenario spatial modeling of Holocene anthropogenic land cover changes and evaluation against archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records: an example for the Dijle catchment (Belgian loess belt)

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan; Van Rompaey, Anton

    2015-04-01

    Holocene anthropogenic land cover reconstructions have recently been created at a variety of spatial scales and resolutions and using different methodologies and proxies. However, considerable discrepancies among these reconstructions, as well as their often limited levels of spatial and thematic detail and the uncertainties resulting from equifinality in proxy records, restrict the potential for application in other research fields. There is thus a need for new methodological approaches that integrate different sources of data at a high spatial resolution. This study presents the methodological framework and first results of a multiple-scenario and multi-proxy land cover allocation model that is applied to the Belgian Dijle catchment (ca. 760 km²) and aims to contribute to a better understanding of the evolution of anthropogenic land use patterns and intensity in the NW European loess area throughout the Holocene. In the first part of the model, a series of hypothetical, time-independent land cover patterns is modeled based on a multi-objective allocation algorithm, including natural vegetation, cropland and pasture, and taking into account the land's natural suitability for agricultural land use and conservative ranges of values for input parameters such as settlement density, minimum inter-settlement distance, deforestation rates, and the specialization towards arable land or pasture. This results in a few tens of thousands of land cover maps, which are assumed to cover virtually every possible anthropogenic land cover pattern for the Holocene Dijle catchment. Subsequently, to arrive at realistic land cover scenarios in the Dijle catchment for distinct cultural periods from the Neolithic onwards, the modeled scenarios are evaluated against three sources of time-differentiated, empirical data: 1. archaeological records serve to validate modeled settlement densities and patterns; 2. application of the modeled land cover maps in a pollen dispersal and deposition

  18. Surface temperature sensitivities from cloud cover variations in the Hummel-Kuhn radiative—convective model with three different cloud approximations

    OpenAIRE

    HUMMEL, JOHN R.

    2011-01-01

    In modeling the thermal structure of the atmosphere, the role of clouds is critically important. Clouds modify the solar flux distribution throughout the atmosphere, radiate significantly in the infrared, and provide large thermal reservoirs because of the large latent heat of water. In the best current radiative convective one-dimensional models the global atmosphere is modeled as the sum of clear and cloudy sky parts weighted by a fractional cloud cover. In considering the cloudy sky part,...

  19. Broad Leaves in Strong Flow

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Laura

    2013-01-01

    Flexible broad leaves are thought to reconfigure in the wind and water to reduce the drag forces that act upon them. Simple mathematical models of a flexible beam immersed in a two-dimensional flow will also exhibit this behavior. What is less understood is how the mechanical properties of a leaf in a three-dimensional flow will passively allow roll up into a cone shape and reduce both drag and vortex induced oscillations. In this fluid dynamics video, the flows around the leaves are compared with those of simplified sheets using 3D numerical simulations and physical models. For some reconfiguration shapes, large forces and oscillations due to strong vortex shedding are produced. In the actual leaf, a stable recirculation zone is formed within the wake of the reconfigured cone. In physical and numerical models that reconfigure into cones, a similar recirculation zone is observed with both rigid and flexible tethers. These results suggest that the three-dimensional cone structure in addition to flexibility is ...

  20. How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

    2015-12-01

    More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

  1. The influence of soil type, vegetation cover and soil moisture on spin up behaviour of a land surface model in a monsoonal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Anwesha; Mandal, Manabottam

    2015-04-01

    Model spin-up is the process through which the model is adequately equilibrated to ensure balance between the mass fields and velocity fields. In this study, an offline one dimensional Noah land surface model is integrated recursively for three years to assess its spin-up behavior at different sites over the Indian Monsoon domain. Several numerical experiments are performed to investigate the impact of soil category, vegetation cover, initial soil moisture and subsequent dry or wet condition on model spin-up. These include simulations with the dominant soil and vegetation covers of this region, different initial soil moisture content (observed soil moisture; dry soil; moderately wet soil; saturated soil), simulations initialized at different rain conditions (no rain; infrequent rain; continuous rain) and different seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer/Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and Autumn). It is seen that the spin-up behavior of the model depends on the soil type and vegetation cover with soil characteristics having the larger influence. Over India, the model has the longest spin-up in the case of simulations with loamy soil covered with mixed-shrub. It is noted that the model has a significantly longer spin-up when initialized with very low initial soil moisture content than with higher soil moisture content. It is also seen that in general, simulations initialized just before a continuous rainfall event have the least spin-up time. This observation is reinforced by the results from the simulations initialized in different seasons. It is seen that for monsoonal region, the model spin-up time is least for simulations initialized just before the Monsoon. Model initialized during the Monsoon rain episodes has a longer spin-up than that initialized in any other season. Furthermore, it is seen that the model has a shorter spin-up if it reaches the equilibrium state predominantly via drying process and could be as low as two months under quasi-equilibrium condition depending on

  2. Estimating the distribution of snow water equivalent using remotely sensed snow cover data and a spatially distributed snowmelt model: A multi-resolution, multi-sensor comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.

    2008-11-01

    Time series of fractional snow covered area (SCA) estimates from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data were combined with a spatially distributed snowmelt model to reconstruct snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Rio Grande headwaters (3419 km 2). In this reconstruction approach, modeled snowmelt over each pixel is integrated during the period of satellite-observed snow cover to estimate SWE. Due to underestimates in snow cover detection, maximum basin-wide mean SWE using MODIS and AVHRR were, respectively, 45% and 68% lower than SWE estimates obtained using ETM+ data. The mean absolute error (MAE) of SWE estimated at 100-m resolution using ETM+ data was 23% relative to observed SWE from intensive field campaigns. Model performance deteriorated when MODIS (MAE = 50%) and AVHRR (MAE = 89%) SCA data were used. Relative to differences in the SCA products, model output was less sensitive to spatial resolution (MAE = 39% and 73% for ETM+ and MODIS simulations run at 1 km resolution, respectively), indicating that SWE reconstructions at the scale of MODIS acquisitions may be tractable provided the SCA product is improved. When considering tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution of different sensors, our results indicate that higher spatial resolution products such as ETM+ remain more accurate despite the lower frequency of acquisition. This motivates continued efforts to improve MODIS snow cover products.

  3. Modelling the Relationship Between Land Surface Temperature and Landscape Patterns of Land Use Land Cover Classification Using Multi Linear Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernales, A. M.; Antolihao, J. A.; Samonte, C.; Campomanes, F.; Rojas, R. J.; dela Serna, A. M.; Silapan, J.

    2016-06-01

    The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST). Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric "Effective mesh size" was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas) and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.

  4. An evaluation of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of snow cover and albedo over the Rocky Mountains, with implications for the simulated snow-albedo feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minder, Justin R.; Letcher, Theodore W.; Skiles, S. McKenzie

    2016-08-01

    The snow-albedo feedback (SAF) strongly influences climate over midlatitude mountainous regions. However, over these regions the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at simulating properties such as snow cover and surface albedo is poorly characterized. These properties are evaluated in a pair of 7 year long high-resolution RCM simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the central Rocky Mountains. Key differences between the simulations include the computational domain (regional versus continental) and land surface model used (Noah versus Noah-MP). Simulations are evaluated against high-resolution satellite estimates of snow cover and albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Both simulations generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial variability of snow cover and also exhibit important biases. One simulation substantially overpredicts subpixel fractional snow cover over snowy pixels (by up to 0.4) causing large positive biases in surface albedo, likely due in part to inadequate representation of canopy effects. The other simulation exhibits a negative bias in areal snow extent (as much as 19% of the analysis domain). Surface measurements reveal large positive biases in snow albedo (exceeding 0.2) during late spring caused by neglecting radiative effects of impurities deposited onto snow. Semi-idealized climate change experiments show substantially different magnitudes of SAF-enhanced warming in the two simulations that can be tied to the differences in snow cover in their control climates. More confident projections of regional climate change over mountains will require further work to evaluate and improve representation of snow cover and albedo in RCMs.

  5. Response of the regression tree model to high resolution remote sensing data for predicting percent tree cover in a Mediterranean ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donmez, Cenk; Berberoglu, Suha; Erdogan, Mehmet Akif; Tanriover, Anil Akin; Cilek, Ahmet

    2015-02-01

    Percent tree cover is the percentage of the ground surface area covered by a vertical projection of the outermost perimeter of the plants. It is an important indicator to reveal the condition of forest systems and has a significant importance for ecosystem models as a main input. The aim of this study is to estimate the percent tree cover of various forest stands in a Mediterranean environment based on an empirical relationship between tree coverage and remotely sensed data in Goksu Watershed located at the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. A regression tree algorithm was used to simulate spatial fractions of Pinus nigra, Cedrus libani, Pinus brutia, Juniperus excelsa and Quercus cerris using multi-temporal LANDSAT TM/ETM data as predictor variables and land cover information. Two scenes of high resolution GeoEye-1 images were employed for training and testing the model. The predictor variables were incorporated in addition to biophysical variables estimated from the LANDSAT TM/ETM data. Additionally, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) was incorporated to LANDSAT TM/ETM band settings as a biophysical variable. Stepwise linear regression (SLR) was applied for selecting the relevant bands to employ in regression tree process. SLR-selected variables produced accurate results in the model with a high correlation coefficient of 0.80. The output values ranged from 0 to 100 %. The different tree species were mapped in 30 m resolution in respect to elevation. Percent tree cover map as a final output was derived using LANDSAT TM/ETM image over Goksu Watershed and the biophysical variables. The results were tested using high spatial resolution GeoEye-1 images. Thus, the combination of the RT algorithm and higher resolution data for percent tree cover mapping were tested and examined in a complex Mediterranean environment.

  6. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieye, A. M.; Roy, D. P.; Hanan, N. P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Touré, A.

    2012-02-01

    Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

  8. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Dieye

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS. The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Dieye

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS. The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieye, A.M.; Roy, D.P.; Hanan, N.P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Toure, A.

    2011-01-01

    Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs. ?? 2011 Author(s).

  11. Evaluating the “critical relative humidity” as a measure of subgrid-scale variability of humidity in general circulation model cloud cover parameterizations using satellite data

    OpenAIRE

    Quaas, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    A simple way to diagnose fractional cloud cover in general circulation models is to relate it to the simulated relative humidity, and allowing for fractional cloud cover above a “critical relative humidity” of less than 100%. In the formulation chosen here, this is equivalent to assuming a uniform “top-hat” distribution of subgrid-scale total water content with a variance related to saturation. Critical relative humidity has frequently been treated as a “tunable” constant, yet it is an observ...

  12. Evaluating land cover influences on model uncertainties—A case study of cropland carbon dynamics in the Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Shuguang; Zhang, Xuesong; West, Tristram O.; Ogle, Stephen M.; Zhou, Naijun

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks and their uncertainties across agriculture-dominated areas remains challenging for understanding regional carbon cycles. Characteristics of local land cover inputs could impact the regional carbon estimates but the effect has not been fully evaluated in the past. Within the North American Carbon Program Mid-Continent Intensive (MCI) Campaign, three models were developed to estimate carbon fluxes on croplands: an inventory-based model, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, and the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) model. They all provided estimates of three major carbon fluxes on cropland: net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and soil organic carbon (SOC) change. Using data mining and spatial statistics, we studied the spatial distribution of the carbon fluxes uncertainties and the relationships between the uncertainties and the land cover characteristics. Results indicated that uncertainties for all three carbon fluxes were not randomly distributed, but instead formed multiple clusters within the MCI region. We investigated the impacts of three land cover characteristics on the fluxes uncertainties: cropland percentage, cropland richness and cropland diversity. The results indicated that cropland percentage significantly influenced the uncertainties of NPP and NEP, but not on the uncertainties of SOC change. Greater uncertainties of NPP and NEP were found in counties with small cropland percentage than the counties with large cropland percentage. Cropland species richness and diversity also showed negative correlations with the model uncertainties. Our study demonstrated that the land cover characteristics contributed to the uncertainties of regional carbon fluxes estimates. The approaches we used in this study can be applied to other ecosystem models to identify the areas with high uncertainties and where models can be improved to

  13. Mapping forest plantations in Mainland China: combining remotely sensed land cover and census land use data in a land transition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Q.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Fisk, J.; Liang, S.; Hansen, M.; Dolan, K. A.

    2013-12-01

    Forest plantations have played an important role in shaping the coverage and compositions of China's forests. Maps characterizing the spatial and temporal patterns of forest plantations in china are essential to both identifying and quantifying how forest plantations are driving changes to the countries ecosystem structure and terrestrial carbon cycle. At this time there are no detailed spatial maps of plantations in China accessible to public. Land transition model that employs Metropolis simulated annealing optimization has been demonstrated effective in land use mapping when land cover observations and land use census data are available. This study aims to map forest plantations in Mainland China by linking remote sensing observations of land cover and census statistics on land use in land transition model. Two models, a national model and a regional model were developed in the study. National model depicted a universal relationship between land cover and land use across the whole country. One of the land use data sources came from the 7th National Forest Inventory (NFI) that depicted forest plantation area in the period of 2004-2008 in each provincial jurisdictions of China (Data from Taiwan, Hongkong and Macau is not available). In accordance with land use data, MODIS yearly IGBP land cover product that contains sixteen-land cover types has been averaged upon the same time period and summarized for each province. The pairwise correlation coefficient between modeled value and reported value is 0.9996. In addition, the 95% confidence interval of true population correlation of these two variables is [0.9994, 0.9998]. Because the targeted forest plantations cover much less area compared to the other land use type of non-plantation, model precision on forest plantations was isolated to eliminate the dominance in area of non-plantation and the correlation coefficient is 0.8058. National model tends to underestimate plantation area. Due to distinct geographic and

  14. Impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity in the 20th century: a multi-model multi-forcing analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-04-01

    Socioeconomic developments increasingly put pressure on our global fresh water resources. Over the past century, increasing extents of land were converted into (irrigated) agricultural production areas whilst dams and reservoirs were built to get grip on the timing and availability of fresh water resources. Often targeted to be of use at local, regional, or national levels, such human interventions affect, however, terrestrial water fluxes on larger scales. Although many of these interventions have been studied intensively at global and regional scales, the impact of land use and land cover change has often been omitted, and an assessment on how land conversions impact water resources availability and water scarcity conditions was not executed before, despite its importance in the development of sound integrated river basin water management plans. To address this issue, we evaluate in this contribution how land use and land cover change impact water resources and water scarcity conditions in the 20th century, using a multi-model multi-forcing framework. A novelty of this research is that the impact models applied in this study use the dynamic HYDE 3.1 - MIRCA dataset to cover the historical (1971-2010) changes in land use and land cover. Preliminary results show that more than 60% of the global population, predominantly living in downstream areas, is adversely affected by the impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity conditions. Whilst incoming discharge generally (in 97% of the global land area) tends to decrease due to upstream land conversions, we found at the same time increases in local runoff levels for a significant share (27%) of the global land area. Which effect eventually dominates and whether it causes water scarcity conditions is determined by the dependency of a region to water resources originating in upstream areas, and by the increasing rates with which the (locally generated) stream flow is used to fulfil (non

  15. How to implement data for improved modelling - Results from an extensive field campaign on the debris covered Lirung Glacier in the Nepalese Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Lene; Immerzeel, Walter; Shahi, Sonika; Baral, Prashant; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2013-04-01

    Debris covered glaciers have become a focus of current research because of growing evidence of an increase in debris cover associated with a warming climate and the effect that debris has on melt rates. Mass balance models increasingly aim at including the melt rate enhancing/reduction effect due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, knowledge about debris cover and thickness, its distribution and characteristics is limited and data are scarce, especially in the HKKH region where debris-covered glaciers are numerous. In this work we present a data set that is complementary to modelling efforts carried out to improve our understanding of processes occurring at the debris cover surface and how debris effects can be implemented into melt and mass balance models of different complexity. A key requirement for distributed melt modelling is the availability of debris cover and thickness maps and knowledge about characteristics of the debris layer and their spatial variability. An extensive field campaign was conducted from May to October 2012 on the debris covered Lirung Glacier in the Nepalese Himalayas. The collected data set consists of observations from an automatic weather station (AWS) measuring wind direction, wind speed, air and surface temperature, incoming and outgoing shortwave radiation, relative humidity and snow height, 14 sensors measuring 2 m air temperature and 7 surface temperature sensors, 3 temperature systems (tinytags) measuring temperature at the debris surface and the ice below the debris layer and one thermistors chain (with 8 temperature sensors) measuring the temperature profile in the debris layer. In the study region there is a key difference between meteorological conditions during monsoon and the dry period. We analyze separately all meteorological records for these different climatic conditions and show how temperature, albedo, relative humidity and wind speed and direction are affected. Wind speed and direction show similar

  16. Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

    2016-02-01

    The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

  17. Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

    2017-05-01

    The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

  18. Modeling the Time-to Corrosion Cracking of the Cover Concrete in Chloride Contaminated Reinforced Concrete Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Youping

    1996-01-01

    Significant factors on steel corrosion in chloride contaminated reinforced concrete and time-to-corrosion cracking were investigated in this study. Sixty specimens were designed with seven admixed chloride contents, three concrete cover depths, two reinforcing steel bar diameters, two exposure conditions, and a typical concrete with water to cement ratio of 0.45. Corrosion current density (corrosion rate), corrosion potential, ohmic resistance of concrete and temperature were measured monthly...

  19. Land Cover - Minnesota Land Cover Classification System

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Land cover data set based on the Minnesota Land Cover Classification System (MLCCS) coding scheme. This data was produced using a combination of aerial photograph...

  20. Broad-spectrum antiviral agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Da eZhu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of highly effective, broad-spectrum antiviral agents is the major objective shared by the fields of virology and pharmaceutics. Antiviral drug development has focused on targeting viral entry and replication, as well as modulating cellular defense system. High throughput screening of molecules, genetic engineering of peptides, and functional screening of agents have identified promising candidates for development of optimal broad-spectrum antiviral agents to intervene in viral infection and control viral epidemics. This review discusses current knowledge, prospective applications, opportunities, and challenges in the development of broad-spectrum antiviral agents.

  1. From forest to farmland: pollen-inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyfe, Ralph M; Woodbridge, Jessie; Roberts, Neil

    2015-03-01

    Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.

  2. Modeling land cover dynamics to assess the sustainability of wetland services: a case study of the Grand Lake Meadows, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shodimu, O.; Al-Tahir, Raid

    2016-04-01

    The Grand Lake Meadows is an important part of the Saint John River wetlands that form the largest freshwater wetland habitat in the Maritimes (eastern Canada). Changes in the land cover and use around wetlands significantly impact their biotic diversity, alter the ecosystem, and affect their ability to support human needs. The goal for this paper was to undertake a detailed and spatially explicit inventory of local trends in land use and land cover changes in Grand Lake Meadows over a 20-year time period. This goal was achieved through classifying historical remotely-sensed images to map the state of land use and cover. Other available data were combined with this information to create a database that was used to investigate the causes and consequences of changes. The results demonstrated the flexibility and the effectiveness of this technology in establishing the necessary baseline and support information for sustaining the eco-services of a wetland. The study identified a 38% decrease in the wetland from 1990 to 2001, while there was 80% increase in the wetland area since then. The result will help managers to comprehend the dynamics of the changes, prompting a better management and implementation of LULC administration in the area.

  3. Exploring Climate Change Effects on Watershed Sediment Yield and Land Cover-Based Mitigation Measures Using Swat Model, RS and Gis: Case of Cagayan River Basin, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Principe, J. A.

    2012-07-01

    The impact of climate change in the Philippines was examined in the country's largest basin-the Cagayan River Basin-by predicting its sediment yield for a long period of time. This was done by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). A set of Landsat imageries were processed to include an atmospheric correction and a filling procedure for cloud and cloud-shadow infested pixels was used to maximize each downloaded scene for a subsequent land cover classification using Maximum Likelihood classifier. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)-DEM was used for the digital elevation model (DEM) requirement of the model while ArcGIS™ provided the platform for the ArcSWAT extension, for storing data and displaying spatial data. The impact of climate change was assessed by varying air surface temperature and amount of precipitation as predicted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. A Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) > 0.4 and coefficient of determination (R2) > 0.5 for both the calibration and validation of the model showed that SWAT model can realistically simulate the hydrological processes in the study area. The model was then utilized for land cover change and climate change analyses and their influence on sediment yield. Results showed a significant relationship exists among the changes in the climate regime, land cover distributions and sediment yield. Finally, the study suggested land cover distribution that can potentially mitigate the serious negative effects of climate change to a regional watershed's sediment yield.

  4. EXPLORING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATERSHED SEDIMENT YIELD AND LAND COVER-BASED MITIGATION MEASURES USING SWAT MODEL, RS AND GIS: CASE OF CAGAYAN RIVER BASIN, PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Principe

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change in the Philippines was examined in the country's largest basin–the Cagayan River Basin–by predicting its sediment yield for a long period of time. This was done by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model, Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS. A set of Landsat imageries were processed to include an atmospheric correction and a filling procedure for cloud and cloud-shadow infested pixels was used to maximize each downloaded scene for a subsequent land cover classification using Maximum Likelihood classifier. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM-DEM was used for the digital elevation model (DEM requirement of the model while ArcGIS™ provided the platform for the ArcSWAT extension, for storing data and displaying spatial data. The impact of climate change was assessed by varying air surface temperature and amount of precipitation as predicted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC scenarios. A Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE > 0.4 and coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.5 for both the calibration and validation of the model showed that SWAT model can realistically simulate the hydrological processes in the study area. The model was then utilized for land cover change and climate change analyses and their influence on sediment yield. Results showed a significant relationship exists among the changes in the climate regime, land cover distributions and sediment yield. Finally, the study suggested land cover distribution that can potentially mitigate the serious negative effects of climate change to a regional watershed's sediment yield.

  5. Effect of land cover on atmospheric processes and air quality over the continental United States – a NASA unified WRF (NU-WRF model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Tao

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The land surface plays a crucial role in regulating water and energy fluxes at the land–atmosphere (L–A interface and controls many processes and feedbacks in the climate system. Land cover and vegetation type remains one key determinant of soil moisture content that impacts air temperature, planetary boundary layer (PBL evolution, and precipitation through soil moisture–evapotranspiration coupling. In turn it will affect atmospheric chemistry and air quality. This paper presents the results of a modeling study of the effect of land cover on some key L–A processes with a focus on air quality. The newly developed NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NU-WRF modeling system couples NASA's Land Information System (LIS with the community WRF model and allows users to explore the L–A processes and feedbacks. Three commonly used satellite-derived land cover datasets, i.e. from the US Geological Survey (USGS and University of Maryland (UMD that are based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, bear large differences in agriculture, forest, grassland, and urban spatial distributions in the continental United States, and thus provide an excellent case to investigate how land cover change would impact atmospheric processes and air quality. The weeklong simulations demonstrate the noticeable differences in soil moisture/temperature, latent/sensible heat flux, PBL height, wind, NO2/ozone, and PM2.5 air quality. These discrepancies can be traced to associate with the land cover properties, e.g. stomatal resistance, albedo and emissivity, and roughness characteristics. It also implies that the rapid urban growth may have complex air quality implications with reductions in peak ozone but more frequent high ozone events.

  6. Effect of land cover on atmospheric processes and air quality over the continental United States – a NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Tao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The land surface plays a crucial role in regulating water and energy fluxes at the land–atmosphere (L–A interface and controls many processes and feedbacks in the climate system. Land cover and vegetation type remains one key determinant of soil moisture content that impacts air temperature, planetary boundary layer (PBL evolution, and precipitation through soil-moisture–evapotranspiration coupling. In turn, it will affect atmospheric chemistry and air quality. This paper presents the results of a modeling study of the effect of land cover on some key L–A processes with a focus on air quality. The newly developed NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NU-WRF modeling system couples NASA's Land Information System (LIS with the community WRF model and allows users to explore the L–A processes and feedbacks. Three commonly used satellite-derived land cover datasets – i.e., from the US Geological Survey (USGS and University of Maryland (UMD, which are based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR, and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS – bear large differences in agriculture, forest, grassland, and urban spatial distributions in the continental United States, and thus provide an excellent case to investigate how land cover change would impact atmospheric processes and air quality. The weeklong simulations demonstrate the noticeable differences in soil moisture/temperature, latent/sensible heat flux, PBL height, wind, NO2/ozone, and PM2.5 air quality. These discrepancies can be traced to associate with the land cover properties, e.g., stomatal resistance, albedo and emissivity, and roughness characteristics. It also implies that the rapid urban growth may have complex air quality implications with reductions in peak ozone but more frequent high ozone events.

  7. Upregulated expression of La ribonucleoprotein domain family member 6 and collagen type I gene following water-filtered broad-spectrum near-infrared irradiation in a 3-dimensional human epidermal tissue culture model as revealed by microarray analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yohei; Nakayama, Jun

    2017-02-27

    Water-filtered broad-spectrum near-infrared irradiation can induce various biological effects, as our previous clinical, histological, and biochemical investigations have shown. However, few studies that examined the changes thus induced in gene expression. The aim was to investigate the changes in gene expression in a 3-dimensional reconstructed epidermal tissue culture exposed to water-filtered broad-spectrum near-infrared irradiation. DNA microarray and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis