Sample records for models cover broad

  1. A broad view of model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, C.F.


    The safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository requires the use of models. Such models need to be validated to ensure, as much as possible, that they are a good representation of the actual processes occurring in the real system. In this paper we attempt to take a broad view by reviewing step by step the modeling process and bringing out the need to validating every step of this process. This model validation includes not only comparison of modeling results with data from selected experiments, but also evaluation of procedures for the construction of conceptual models and calculational models as well as methodologies for studying data and parameter correlation. The need for advancing basic scientific knowledge in related fields, for multiple assessment groups, and for presenting our modeling efforts in open literature to public scrutiny is also emphasized. 16 refs

  2. The influence of multi-season imagery on models of canopy cover: A case study (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Dennis M. Jacobs; Chris R. King; Ivey C. Elmore


    Quantifying tree canopy cover in a spatially explicit fashion is important for broad-scale monitoring of ecosystems and for management of natural resources. Researchers have developed empirical models of tree canopy cover to produce geospatial products. For subpixel models, percent tree canopy cover estimates (derived from fine-scale imagery) serve as the response...

  3. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)


    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  4. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozena Czerny


    Full Text Available We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  5. Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data. (United States)

    Fink, Daniel; Hochachka, Wesley M; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Winkler, David W; Shaby, Ben; Munson, M Arthur; Hooker, Giles; Riedewald, Mirek; Sheldon, Daniel; Kelling, Steve


    The distributions of animal populations change and evolve through time. Migratory species exploit different habitats at different times of the year. Biotic and abiotic features that determine where a species lives vary due to natural and anthropogenic factors. This spatiotemporal variation needs to be accounted for in any modeling of species' distributions. In this paper we introduce a semiparametric model that provides a flexible framework for analyzing dynamic patterns of species occurrence and abundance from broad-scale survey data. The spatiotemporal exploratory model (STEM) adds essential spatiotemporal structure to existing techniques for developing species distribution models through a simple parametric structure without requiring a detailed understanding of the underlying dynamic processes. STEMs use a multi-scale strategy to differentiate between local and global-scale spatiotemporal structure. A user-specified species distribution model accounts for spatial and temporal patterning at the local level. These local patterns are then allowed to "scale up" via ensemble averaging to larger scales. This makes STEMs especially well suited for exploring distributional dynamics arising from a variety of processes. Using data from eBird, an online citizen science bird-monitoring project, we demonstrate that monthly changes in distribution of a migratory species, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), can be more accurately described with a STEM than a conventional bagged decision tree model in which spatiotemporal structure has not been imposed. We also demonstrate that there is no loss of model predictive power when a STEM is used to describe a spatiotemporal distribution with very little spatiotemporal variation; the distribution of a nonmigratory species, the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

  6. Modeling percent tree canopy cover: a pilot study (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Gretchen G. Moisen; Barry T. Wilson; Mark V. Finco; Warren B. Cohen; C. Kenneth Brewer


    Tree canopy cover is a fundamental component of the landscape, and the amount of cover influences fire behavior, air pollution mitigation, and carbon storage. As such, efforts to empirically model percent tree canopy cover across the United States are a critical area of research. The 2001 national-scale canopy cover modeling and mapping effort was completed in 2006,...

  7. Integration of multiple, excess, backup, and expected covering models


    M S Daskin; K Hogan; C ReVelle


    The concepts of multiple, excess, backup, and expected coverage are defined. Model formulations using these constructs are reviewed and contrasted to illustrate the relationships between them. Several new formulations are presented as is a new derivation of the expected covering model which indicates more clearly the relationship of the model to other multi-state covering models. An expected covering model with multiple time standards is also presented.

  8. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.


    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  9. Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.


    In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

  10. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.


    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  11. Monitoring of covering model of the National radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jezikova, M.


    The subject of this rigorous report is justification of cover model building at radioactive waste repository in Mochovce as a very important engineering barrier preventing significant release of radioactive substances into the environment and providing protection against ionizing radiation. This rigorous report includes a theoretical part, which describes radioactive waste characterization, radioactive waste management and summary of the preliminary activities prior to the building cover model, particularly involving the selection of appropriate variables and parameters and creation of monitoring plan during the long term monitoring for evaluation of this barrier in order to ensure minimization of any leak of radioactive substances from RAW. The next part includes evaluation of the values of parameters and variables to build cover model of RAW in Mochovce during 2006-2008 (author)

  12. Modelling the future of the arctic sea ice cover


    Myklebust, Erik Bryhn


    Record lows in sea ice cover have recently sparked new interest in the small ice cap instability. The change in albedo when sea ice becomes open water introduces a nonlinearity called the ice-albedo feedback. Forcing a joint energy- balance and sea ice model can lead to unstable ice caps in certain parameter regimes. When the ice caps are unstable, a small perturbation will initiate a tipping point in the sea ice cover. For tipping points in general, a number of studies have pointed out that ...

  13. Radon diffusion through multilayer earthen covers: models and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, D.W.; Oster, C.A.; Nelson, R.W.; Gee, G.W.


    A capability to model and analyze the fundamental interactions that influence the diffusion of radon gas through uranium mill tailings and cover systems has been investigated. The purpose of this study is to develop the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion and to develop an understanding of the fundamental interactions that influence radon diffusion. This study develops the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion in one, two and three dimensions. The theory has been incorporated into three computer models that are used to analyze several tailings and cover configurations. This report contains a discussion of the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion, a discussion of the computer models used to analyze uranium mill tailings and multilayered cover systems, and presents the results that have been obtained. The study has been conducted using a four-phase approach. The first phase develops the solution to the steady-state radon-diffusion equation in one-dimensieered barriers; disposal charge analysis; analysis of spent fuel policy implementation; spent f water. Field measurements and observations are reported for each site. Analytical data and field measurements are presented in tables and maps. Uranium concentrations in the sediments which were above detection limits ranged from 0.10 t 51.2 ppM. The mean of the logarithms of the uranium concentrations was 0.53. A group of high uranium concentrations occurs near the junctions of quadrangles AB, AC, BB, a 200 mK. In case 2), x-ray studies of isotopic phase separation in 3 He-- 4 He bcc solids were carried out by B. A. Fraass

  14. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko


    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  15. Amplifying modeling for broad bandwidth pulse in Nd:glass based on hybrid-broaden mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sujingqin; Lanqin, L; Wenyi, W; Feng, J; Xiaofeng, W; Xiaomin, Z; Bin, L


    In this paper, the cross relaxation time is proposed to combine the homogeneous and inhomogeneous broaden mechanism for broad bandwidth pulse amplification model. The corresponding velocity equation, which can describe the response of inverse population on upper and low energy level of gain media to different frequency of pulse, is also put forward. The gain saturation and energy relaxation effect are also included in the velocity equation. Code named CPAP has been developed to simulate the amplifying process of broad bandwidth pulse in multi-pass laser system. The amplifying capability of multi-pass laser system is evaluated and gain narrowing and temporal shape distortion are also investigated when bandwidth of pulse and cross relaxation time of gain media are different. Results can benefit the design of high-energy PW laser system in LFRC, CAEP

  16. Amplifying modeling for broad bandwidth pulse in Nd:glass based on hybrid-broaden mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sujingqin; Lanqin, L; Wenyi, W; Feng, J; Xiaofeng, W; Xiaomin, Z [Research Center of Laser Fusion, China Academy of Engineering Physics, P. O. Box 919-988, Mianyang, China, 621900 (China); Bin, L [School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu. China, 610031 (China)], E-mail:


    In this paper, the cross relaxation time is proposed to combine the homogeneous and inhomogeneous broaden mechanism for broad bandwidth pulse amplification model. The corresponding velocity equation, which can describe the response of inverse population on upper and low energy level of gain media to different frequency of pulse, is also put forward. The gain saturation and energy relaxation effect are also included in the velocity equation. Code named CPAP has been developed to simulate the amplifying process of broad bandwidth pulse in multi-pass laser system. The amplifying capability of multi-pass laser system is evaluated and gain narrowing and temporal shape distortion are also investigated when bandwidth of pulse and cross relaxation time of gain media are different. Results can benefit the design of high-energy PW laser system in LFRC, CAEP.

  17. Power scaling and experimentally fitted model for broad area quantum cascade lasers in continuous wave operation (United States)

    Suttinger, Matthew; Go, Rowel; Figueiredo, Pedro; Todi, Ankesh; Shu, Hong; Leshin, Jason; Lyakh, Arkadiy


    Experimental and model results for 15-stage broad area quantum cascade lasers (QCLs) are presented. Continuous wave (CW) power scaling from 1.62 to 2.34 W has been experimentally demonstrated for 3.15-mm long, high reflection-coated QCLs for an active region width increased from 10 to 20 μm. A semiempirical model for broad area devices operating in CW mode is presented. The model uses measured pulsed transparency current, injection efficiency, waveguide losses, and differential gain as input parameters. It also takes into account active region self-heating and sublinearity of pulsed power versus current laser characteristic. The model predicts that an 11% improvement in maximum CW power and increased wall-plug efficiency can be achieved from 3.15 mm×25 μm devices with 21 stages of the same design, but half doping in the active region. For a 16-stage design with a reduced stage thickness of 300 Å, pulsed rollover current density of 6 kA/cm2, and InGaAs waveguide layers, an optical power increase of 41% is projected. Finally, the model projects that power level can be increased to ˜4.5 W from 3.15 mm×31 μm devices with the baseline configuration with T0 increased from 140 K for the present design to 250 K.

  18. Solving Vertex Cover Problem Using DNA Tile Assembly Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihua Chen


    Full Text Available DNA tile assembly models are a class of mathematically distributed and parallel biocomputing models in DNA tiles. In previous works, tile assembly models have been proved be Turing-universal; that is, the system can do what Turing machine can do. In this paper, we use tile systems to solve computational hard problem. Mathematically, we construct three tile subsystems, which can be combined together to solve vertex cover problem. As a result, each of the proposed tile subsystems consists of Θ(1 types of tiles, and the assembly process is executed in a parallel way (like DNA’s biological function in cells; thus the systems can generate the solution of the problem in linear time with respect to the size of the graph.


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buscheck, T.A.


    The purpose of the Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model (MSTHM) is to describe the thermohydrologic evolution of the near-field environment (NFE) and engineered barrier system (EBS) throughout the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain for a particular engineering design (CRWMS M andO 2000c). The process-level model will provide thermohydrologic (TH) information and data (such as in-drift temperature, relative humidity, liquid saturation, etc.) for use in other technical products. This data is provided throughout the entire repository area as a function of time. The MSTHM couples the Smeared-heat-source Drift-scale Thermal-conduction (SDT), Line-average-heat-source Drift-scale Thermohydrologic (LDTH), Discrete-heat-source Drift-scale Thermal-conduction (DDT), and Smeared-heat-source Mountain-scale Thermal-conduction (SMT) submodels such that the flow of water and water vapor through partially-saturated fractured rock is considered. The MSTHM accounts for 3-D drift-scale and mountain-scale heat flow, repository-scale variability of stratigraphy and infiltration flux, and waste package (WP)-to-WP variability in heat output from WPs. All submodels use the nonisothermal unsaturated-saturated flow and transport (NUFT) simulation code. The MSTHM is implemented in several data-processing steps. The four major steps are: (1) submodel input-file preparation, (2) execution of the four submodel families with the use of the NUFT code, (3) execution of the multiscale thermohydrologic abstraction code (MSTHAC), and (4) binning and post-processing (i.e., graphics preparation) of the output from MSTHAC. Section 6 describes the MSTHM in detail. The objectives of this Analyses and Model Report (AMR) are to investigate near field (NF) and EBS thermohydrologic environments throughout the repository area at various evolution periods, and to provide TH data that may be used in other process model reports

  20. Thermal wind model for the broad emission line region of quasars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weymann, R.J.; Scott, J.S.; Schiano, A.V.R.; Christiansen, W.A.


    Arguments are summarized for supposing that the clouds giving rise to the broad emission lines of QSOs are confined by the pressure of an expanding thermal gas and that a flux of relativistic particles with luminosity comparable to the photon luminosity streams through this gas. The resulting heating and momentum deposition produces a transonic thermal wind whose dynamical properties are calculated in detail. This wind accelerates and confines the emission line clouds, thereby producing the broad emission line (BEL) profiles. In a companion paper, the properties of the wind at much larger distances (approx.kpc) than the BEL region are used to explain the production of the broad absorption lines (BAL) observed in some QSOs. The same set of wind parameters can account for the properties of both the BEL and BAL regions, and this unification in the physical description of the BEL and BAL regions is one of the most important advantages of this model. A characteristic size of approx.1 pc for the QSO emission line region is one consequence of the model. This characteristic size is shown to depend upon luminosity in such a way that the ionization parameter is roughly constant over a wide range of luminosities. An X-ray luminosity due to thermal bremsstrahlung of approx.1%--10% of the optical luminosity is another consequence of the model. The trajectories of clouds under the combined influence of ram pressure acceleration and radiative acceleration are calculated. From these trajectories emission line profiles are also calculated, as well as the wind and cloud parameters yielding profiles in fair agreement with observed profiles explored. Opacity in the wind due to electron scattering displaces the line cores of optically thin lines to the blue. This is roughly compensated for by the redward skewing of optically thick lines due to preferential emission of photons from the back side of the clouds.void rapid depletion due to Compton losses are discussed

  1. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Arabelos


    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  2. The diverse broad-band light-curves of Swift GRBs reproduced with the cannonball model

    CERN Document Server

    Dado, Shlomo; De Rújula, A


    Two radiation mechanisms, inverse Compton scattering (ICS) and synchrotron radiation (SR), suffice within the cannonball (CB) model of long gamma ray bursts (LGRBs) and X-ray flashes (XRFs) to provide a very simple and accurate description of their observed prompt emission and afterglows. Simple as they are, the two mechanisms and the burst environment generate the rich structure of the light curves at all frequencies and times. This is demonstrated for 33 selected Swift LGRBs and XRFs, which are well sampled from early time until late time and well represent the entire diversity of the broad band light curves of Swift LGRBs and XRFs. Their prompt gamma-ray and X-ray emission is dominated by ICS of glory light. During their fast decline phase, ICS is taken over by SR which dominates their broad band afterglow. The pulse shape and spectral evolution of the gamma-ray peaks and the early-time X-ray flares, and even the delayed optical `humps' in XRFs, are correctly predicted. The canonical and non-canonical X-ra...

  3. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.


    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  4. Application of a process-based shallow landslide hazard model over a broad area in Central Italy (United States)

    Gioia, Eleonora; Speranza, Gabriella; Ferretti, Maurizio; Godt, Jonathan W.; Baum, Rex L.; Marincioni, Fausto


    Process-based models are widely used for rainfall-induced shallow landslide forecasting. Previous studies have successfully applied the U.S. Geological Survey’s Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al. 2002) to compute infiltration-driven changes in the hillslopes’ factor of safety on small scales (i.e., tens of square kilometers). Soil data input for such models are difficult to obtain across larger regions. This work describes a novel methodology for the application of TRIGRS over broad areas with relatively uniform hydrogeological properties. The study area is a 550-km2 region in Central Italy covered by post-orogenic Quaternary sediments. Due to the lack of field data, we assigned mechanical and hydrological property values through a statistical analysis based on literature review of soils matching the local lithologies. We calibrated the model using rainfall data from 25 historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. We compared the variation of pressure head and factor of safety with the landslide occurrence to identify the best fitting input conditions. Using calibrated inputs and a soil depth model, we ran TRIGRS for the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, comparing the model’s output with a shallow landslide inventory, shows that TRIGRS effectively simulated the instability conditions in the post-orogenic complex during historical rainfall scenarios. The implication of this work is that rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted by a deterministic model, even where data on geotechnical and hydraulic properties as well as temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not available.

  5. Endovascular Broad-Neck Aneurysm Creation in a Porcine Model Using a Vascular Plug

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muehlenbruch, Georg, E-mail:; Nikoubashman, Omid; Steffen, Bjoern; Dadak, Mete [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, University Hospital (Germany); Palmowski, Moritz [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, University Hospital (Germany); Wiesmann, Martin [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, University Hospital (Germany)


    Ruptured cerebral arterial aneurysms require prompt treatment by either surgical clipping or endovascular coiling. Training for these sophisticated endovascular procedures is essential and ideally performed in animals before their use in humans. Simulators and established animal models have shown drawbacks with respect to degree of reality, size of the animal model and aneurysm, or time and effort needed for aneurysm creation. We therefore aimed to establish a realistic and readily available aneurysm model. Five anticoagulated domestic pigs underwent endovascular intervention through right femoral access. A total of 12 broad-neck aneurysms were created in the carotid, subclavian, and renal arteries using the Amplatzer vascular plug. With dedicated vessel selection, cubic, tubular, and side-branch aneurysms could be created. Three of the 12 implanted occluders, two of them implanted over a side branch of the main vessel, did not induce complete vessel occlusion. However, all aneurysms remained free of intraluminal thrombus formation and were available for embolization training during a surveillance period of 6 h. Two aneurysms underwent successful exemplary treatment: one was stent-assisted, and one was performed with conventional endovascular coil embolization. The new porcine aneurysm model proved to be a straightforward approach that offers a wide range of training and scientific applications that might help further improve endovascular coil embolization therapy in patients with cerebral aneurysms.

  6. Endovascular Broad-Neck Aneurysm Creation in a Porcine Model Using a Vascular Plug

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mühlenbruch, Georg; Nikoubashman, Omid; Steffen, Björn; Dadak, Mete; Palmowski, Moritz; Wiesmann, Martin


    Ruptured cerebral arterial aneurysms require prompt treatment by either surgical clipping or endovascular coiling. Training for these sophisticated endovascular procedures is essential and ideally performed in animals before their use in humans. Simulators and established animal models have shown drawbacks with respect to degree of reality, size of the animal model and aneurysm, or time and effort needed for aneurysm creation. We therefore aimed to establish a realistic and readily available aneurysm model. Five anticoagulated domestic pigs underwent endovascular intervention through right femoral access. A total of 12 broad-neck aneurysms were created in the carotid, subclavian, and renal arteries using the Amplatzer vascular plug. With dedicated vessel selection, cubic, tubular, and side-branch aneurysms could be created. Three of the 12 implanted occluders, two of them implanted over a side branch of the main vessel, did not induce complete vessel occlusion. However, all aneurysms remained free of intraluminal thrombus formation and were available for embolization training during a surveillance period of 6 h. Two aneurysms underwent successful exemplary treatment: one was stent-assisted, and one was performed with conventional endovascular coil embolization. The new porcine aneurysm model proved to be a straightforward approach that offers a wide range of training and scientific applications that might help further improve endovascular coil embolization therapy in patients with cerebral aneurysms.

  7. Artificial Systems and Models for Risk Covering Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurenţiu Mihai Treapăt


    Full Text Available Mainly, this paper focuses on the roles of artificial intelligence based systems and especially on risk-covering operations. In this context, the paper comes with theoretical explanations on real-life based examples and applications. From a general perspective, the paper enriches its value with a wide discussion on the related subject. The paper aims to revise the volatilities’ estimation models and the correlations between the various time series and also by presenting the Risk Metrics methodology, as explained is a case study. The advantages that the VaR estimation offers, consist of its ability to quantitatively and numerically express the risk level of a portfolio, at a certain moment in time and also the risk of on open position (in titles, in FX, commodities or granted loans, belonging to an economic agent or even individual; hence, its role in a more efficient capital allocation, in the assumed risk delimitation, and also as a performance measurement instrument. In this paper and the study case that completes our work, we aim to prove how we can prevent considerable losses and even bankruptcies if VaR is known and applied accordingly. For this reason, the universities inRomaniashould include or increase their curricula with the study of the VaR model as an artificial intelligence tool. The simplicity of the presented case study, most probably, is the strongest argument of the current work because it can be understood also by the readers that are not necessarily very experienced in the risk management field.

  8. Particle acceleration model for the broad-band baseline spectrum of the Crab nebula (United States)

    Fraschetti, F.; Pohl, M.


    We develop a simple one-zone model of the steady-state Crab nebula spectrum encompassing both the radio/soft X-ray and the GeV/multi-TeV observations. By solving the transport equation for GeV-TeV electrons injected at the wind termination shock as a log-parabola momentum distribution and evolved via energy losses, we determine analytically the resulting differential energy spectrum of photons. We find an impressive agreement with the observed spectrum of synchrotron emission, and the synchrotron self-Compton component reproduces the previously unexplained broad 200-GeV peak that matches the Fermi/Large Area Telescope (LAT) data beyond 1 GeV with the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) data. We determine the parameters of the single log-parabola electron injection distribution, in contrast with multiple broken power-law electron spectra proposed in the literature. The resulting photon differential spectrum provides a natural interpretation of the deviation from power law customarily fitted with empirical multiple broken power laws. Our model can be applied to the radio-to-multi-TeV spectrum of a variety of astrophysical outflows, including pulsar wind nebulae and supernova remnants, as well as to interplanetary shocks.

  9. Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space (United States)

    Villar, V. Ashley; Berger, Edo; Metzger, Brian D.; Guillochon, James


    The duration-luminosity phase space (DLPS) of optical transients is used, mostly heuristically, to compare various classes of transient events, to explore the origin of new transients, and to influence optical survey observing strategies. For example, several observational searches have been guided by intriguing voids and gaps in this phase space. However, we should ask, do we expect to find transients in these voids given our understanding of the various heating sources operating in astrophysical transients? In this work, we explore a broad range of theoretical models and empirical relations to generate optical light curves and to populate the DLPS. We explore transients powered by adiabatic expansion, radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and circumstellar interaction. For each heating source, we provide a concise summary of the basic physical processes, a physically motivated choice of model parameter ranges, an overall summary of the resulting light curves and their occupied range in the DLPS, and how the various model input parameters affect the light curves. We specifically explore the key voids discussed in the literature: the intermediate-luminosity gap between classical novae and supernovae, and short-duration transients (≲ 10 days). We find that few physical models lead to transients that occupy these voids. Moreover, we find that only relativistic expansion can produce fast and luminous transients, while for all other heating sources events with durations ≲ 10 days are dim ({M}{{R}}≳ -15 mag). Finally, we explore the detection potential of optical surveys (e.g., Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) in the DLPS and quantify the notion that short-duration and dim transients are exponentially more difficult to discover in untargeted surveys.

  10. Ecosystem Services Provided by Agricultural Land as Modeled by Broad Scale Geospatial Analysis (United States)

    Kokkinidis, Ioannis

    Agricultural ecosystems provide multiple services including food and fiber provision, nutrient cycling, soil retention and water regulation. Objectives of the study were to identify and quantify a selection of ecosystem services provided by agricultural land, using existing geospatial tools and preferably free and open source data, such as the Virginia Land Use Evaluation System (VALUES), the North Carolina Realistic Yield Expectations (RYE) database, and the land cover datasets NLCD and CDL. Furthermore I sought to model tradeoffs between provisioning and other services. First I assessed the accuracy of agricultural land in NLCD and CDL over a four county area in eastern Virginia using cadastral parcels. I uncovered issues concerning the definition of agricultural land. The area and location of agriculture saw little change in the 19 years studied. Furthermore all datasets have significant errors of omission (11.3 to 95.1%) and commission (0 to 71.3%). Location of agriculture was used with spatial crop yield databases I created and combined with models I adapted to calculate baseline values for plant biomass, nutrient composition and requirements, land suitability for and potential production of biofuels and the economic impact of agriculture for the four counties. The study area was then broadened to cover 97 counties in eastern Virginia and North Carolina, investigating the potential for increased regional grain production through intensification and extensification of agriculture. Predicted yield from geospatial crop models was compared with produced yield from the NASS Survey of Agriculture. Area of most crops in CDL was similar to that in the Survey of Agriculture, but a yield gap is present for most years, partially due to weather, thus indicating potential for yield increase through intensification. Using simple criteria I quantified the potential to extend agriculture in high yield land in other uses and modeled the changes in erosion and runoff should

  11. Modeling vegetation heights from high resolution stereo aerial photography: an application for broad-scale rangeland monitoring. (United States)

    Gillan, Jeffrey K; Karl, Jason W; Duniway, Michael; Elaksher, Ahmed


    Vertical vegetation structure in rangeland ecosystems can be a valuable indicator for assessing rangeland health and monitoring riparian areas, post-fire recovery, available forage for livestock, and wildlife habitat. Federal land management agencies are directed to monitor and manage rangelands at landscapes scales, but traditional field methods for measuring vegetation heights are often too costly and time consuming to apply at these broad scales. Most emerging remote sensing techniques capable of measuring surface and vegetation height (e.g., LiDAR or synthetic aperture radar) are often too expensive, and require specialized sensors. An alternative remote sensing approach that is potentially more practical for managers is to measure vegetation heights from digital stereo aerial photographs. As aerial photography is already commonly used for rangeland monitoring, acquiring it in stereo enables three-dimensional modeling and estimation of vegetation height. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility and accuracy of estimating shrub heights from high-resolution (HR, 3-cm ground sampling distance) digital stereo-pair aerial images. Overlapping HR imagery was taken in March 2009 near Lake Mead, Nevada and 5-cm resolution digital surface models (DSMs) were created by photogrammetric methods (aerial triangulation, digital image matching) for twenty-six test plots. We compared the heights of individual shrubs and plot averages derived from the DSMs to field measurements. We found strong positive correlations between field and image measurements for several metrics. Individual shrub heights tended to be underestimated in the imagery, however, accuracy was higher for dense, compact shrubs compared with shrubs with thin branches. Plot averages of shrub height from DSMs were also strongly correlated to field measurements but consistently underestimated. Grasses and forbs were generally too small to be detected with the resolution of the DSMs. Estimates of

  12. [NDVI difference rate recognition model of deciduous broad-leaved forest based on HJ-CCD remote sensing data]. (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Tian, Qing-Jiu; Huang, Yan; Wei, Hong-Wei


    The present paper takes Chuzhou in Anhui Province as the research area, and deciduous broad-leaved forest as the research object. Then it constructs the recognition model about deciduous broad-leaved forest was constructed using NDVI difference rate between leaf expansion and flowering and fruit-bearing, and the model was applied to HJ-CCD remote sensing image on April 1, 2012 and May 4, 2012. At last, the spatial distribution map of deciduous broad-leaved forest was extracted effectively, and the results of extraction were verified and evaluated. The result shows the validity of NDVI difference rate extraction method proposed in this paper and also verifies the applicability of using HJ-CCD data for vegetation classification and recognition.

  13. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model. (United States)

    Ermler, Megan E; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian


    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeric hemagglutinins, consisting of globular head domains from exotic influenza A viruses and stalk domains from influenza B viruses. Sequential vaccination with these constructs in mice leads to the induction of broadly reactive antibodies that bind to the conserved stalk domain of influenza B virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated mice are protected from lethal challenge with diverse influenza B viruses. Results from serum transfer experiments and antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) assays indicate that this protection is antibody mediated and based on Fc effector functions. The present data suggest that chimeric hemagglutinin-based vaccination is a viable strategy to broadly protect against influenza B virus infection. IMPORTANCE While current influenza virus vaccines are effective, they are affected by mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Furthermore, the antiviral drug oseltamivir is less effective for treating influenza B virus infections than for treating influenza A virus infections. A vaccine that induces broad and long-lasting protection against influenza B viruses is therefore urgently needed. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  14. Modeling Historical Land Cover and Land Use: A Review fromContemporary Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez


    Full Text Available Spatially-explicit land cover land use change (LCLUC models are becoming increasingly useful tools for historians and archaeologists. Such kinds of models have been developed and used by geographers, ecologists and land managers over the last few decades to carry out prospective scenarios. In this paper, we review historical models to compare them with prospective models, with the assumption that the ample experience gained in the development of models of prospective simulation can benefit the development of models having as their objective the simulation of changes that happened in the past. The review is divided into three sections: in the first section, we explain the functioning of contemporary LCLUC models; in the second section, we analyze historical LCLUC models; in the third section, we compare the former two types of models, and finally, we discuss the contributions to historical LCLUC models of contemporary LCLUC models.

  15. [Quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor in USLE and RUSLE models by using remote sensing data: a review]. (United States)

    Wu, Chang-Guang; Li, Sheng; Ren, Hua-Dong; Yao, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Zi-Jie


    Soil loss prediction models such as universal soil loss equation (USLE) and its revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) are the useful tools for risk assessment of soil erosion and planning of soil conservation at regional scale. To make a rational estimation of vegetation cover and management factor, the most important parameters in USLE or RUSLE, is particularly important for the accurate prediction of soil erosion. The traditional estimation based on field survey and measurement is time-consuming, laborious, and costly, and cannot rapidly extract the vegetation cover and management factor at macro-scale. In recent years, the development of remote sensing technology has provided both data and methods for the estimation of vegetation cover and management factor over broad geographic areas. This paper summarized the research findings on the quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor by using remote sensing data, and analyzed the advantages and the disadvantages of various methods, aimed to provide reference for the further research and quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor at large scale.

  16. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model


    Ermler, Megan E.; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian


    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeri...

  17. Why Friedman's Non-monotonic Reasoning Defies Hempel's Covering Law Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); Y-H. Tan (Yao-Hua)


    textabstractIn this paper we will show that Hempel's covering law model can't deal very well with explanations that are based on incomplete knowledge. In particular the symmetry thesis, which is an important aspect of the covering law model, turns out to be problematic for these explanations. We

  18. Why Friedman's non-monotonic reasoning defies Hempel's covering law model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); Y.H. Tan (Yao Hua)


    textabstractIn this paper we will show that Hempel's covering law model can't deal very well with explanations that are based on incomplete knowledge. In particular the symmetry thesis, which is an important aspect of the covering law model, turns out to be problematic for these explanations. We

  19. Pyrolysis Model Development for a Multilayer Floor Covering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark B. McKinnon


    Full Text Available Comprehensive pyrolysis models that are integral to computational fire codes have improved significantly over the past decade as the demand for improved predictive capabilities has increased. High fidelity pyrolysis models may improve the design of engineered materials for better fire response, the design of the built environment, and may be used in forensic investigations of fire events. A major limitation to widespread use of comprehensive pyrolysis models is the large number of parameters required to fully define a material and the lack of effective methodologies for measurement of these parameters, especially for complex materials. The work presented here details a methodology used to characterize the pyrolysis of a low-pile carpet tile, an engineered composite material that is common in commercial and institutional occupancies. The studied material includes three distinct layers of varying composition and physical structure. The methodology utilized a comprehensive pyrolysis model (ThermaKin to conduct inverse analyses on data collected through several experimental techniques. Each layer of the composite was individually parameterized to identify its contribution to the overall response of the composite. The set of properties measured to define the carpet composite were validated against mass loss rate curves collected at conditions outside the range of calibration conditions to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model. The mean error between the predicted curve and the mean experimental mass loss rate curve was calculated as approximately 20% on average for heat fluxes ranging from 30 to 70 kW·m−2, which is within the mean experimental uncertainty.

  20. Improving snow cover mapping in forests through the use of a canopy reflectance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, A.G.; Hall, D.K.; Riggs, G.A.


    MODIS, the moderate resolution imaging spectro radiometer, will be launched in 1998 as part of the first earth observing system (EOS) platform. Global maps of land surface properties, including snow cover, will be created from MODIS imagery. The MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm that will be used to produce daily maps of global snow cover extent at 500 m resolution is currently under development. With the exception of cloud cover, the largest limitation to producing a global daily snow cover product using MODIS is the presence of a forest canopy. A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) time-series of the southern Boreal Ecosystem–Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) study area in Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan, was used to evaluate the performance of the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm in varying forest types. A snow reflectance model was used in conjunction with a canopy reflectance model (GeoSAIL) to model the reflectance of a snow-covered forest stand. Using these coupled models, the effects of varying forest type, canopy density, snow grain size and solar illumination geometry on the performance of the MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm were investigated. Using both the TM images and the reflectance models, two changes to the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm are proposed that will improve the algorithm's classification accuracy in forested areas. The improvements include using the normalized difference snow index and normalized difference vegetation index in combination to discriminate better between snow-covered and snow-free forests. A minimum albedo threshold of 10% in the visible wavelengths is also proposed. This will prevent dense forests with very low visible albedos from being classified incorrectly as snow. These two changes increase the amount of snow mapped in forests on snow-covered TM scenes, and decrease the area incorrectly identified as snow on non-snow-covered TM scenes. (author)

  1. Broad spectrum antibiotic enrofloxacin modulates contact sensitivity through gut microbiota in a murine model. (United States)

    Strzępa, Anna; Majewska-Szczepanik, Monika; Lobo, Francis M; Wen, Li; Szczepanik, Marian


    Medical advances in the field of infection therapy have led to an increasing use of antibiotics, which, apart from eliminating pathogens, also partially eliminate naturally existing commensal bacteria. It has become increasingly clear that less exposure to microbiota early in life may contribute to the observed rise in "immune-mediated" diseases, including autoimmunity and allergy. We sought to test whether the change of gut microbiota with the broad spectrum antibiotic enrofloxacin will modulate contact sensitivity (CS) in mice. Natural gut microbiota were modified by oral treatment with enrofloxacin prior to sensitization with trinitrophenyl chloride followed by CS testing. Finally, adoptive cell transfers were performed to characterize the regulatory cells that are induced by microbiota modification. Oral treatment with enrofloxacin suppresses CS and production of anti-trinitrophenyl chloride IgG1 antibodies. Adoptive transfer experiments show that antibiotic administration favors induction of regulatory cells that suppress CS. Flow cytometry and adoptive transfer of purified cells show that antibiotic-induced suppression of CS is mediated by TCR αβ + CD4 + CD25 + FoxP3 + Treg, CD19 + B220 + CD5 + IL-10 + , IL-10 + Tr1, and IL-10 + TCR γδ + cells. Treatment with the antibiotic induces dysbiosis characterized by increased proportion of Clostridium coccoides (cluster XIVa), C coccoides-Eubacterium rectale (cluster XIVab), Bacteroidetes, and Bifidobacterium spp, but decreased segmented filamentous bacteria. Transfer of antibiotic-modified gut microbiota inhibits CS, but this response can be restored through oral transfer of control gut bacteria to antibiotic-treated animals. Oral treatment with a broad spectrum antibiotic modifies gut microbiota composition and promotes anti-inflammatory response, suggesting that manipulation of gut microbiota can be a powerful tool to modulate the course of CS. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

  2. Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naha


    Full Text Available The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006. Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU, rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated

  3. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.


    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  4. Screening of broad spectrum natural pesticides against conserved target arginine kinase in cotton pests by molecular modeling. (United States)

    Sakthivel, Seethalakshmi; Habeeb, S K M; Raman, Chandrasekar


    Cotton is an economically important crop and its production is challenged by the diversity of pests and related insecticide resistance. Identification of the conserved target across the cotton pest will help to design broad spectrum insecticide. In this study, we have identified conserved sequences by Expressed Sequence Tag profiling from three cotton pests namely Aphis gossypii, Helicoverpa armigera, and Spodoptera exigua. One target protein arginine kinase having a key role in insect physiology and energy metabolism was studied further using homology modeling, virtual screening, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulation to identify potential biopesticide compounds from the Zinc natural database. We have identified four compounds having excellent inhibitor potential against the identified broad spectrum target which are highly specific to invertebrates.

  5. Using Set Covering with Item Sampling to Analyze the Infeasibility of Linear Programming Test Assembly Models (United States)

    Huitzing, Hiddo A.


    This article shows how set covering with item sampling (SCIS) methods can be used in the analysis and preanalysis of linear programming models for test assembly (LPTA). LPTA models can construct tests, fulfilling a set of constraints set by the test assembler. Sometimes, no solution to the LPTA model exists. The model is then said to be…

  6. Artificial neural network model to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duchesne, Marc A. [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Macchi, Arturo [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); Lu, Dennis Y.; Hughes, Robin W.; McCalden, David; Anthony, Edward J. [CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)


    Threshold slag viscosity heuristics are often used for the initial assessment of coal gasification projects. Slag viscosity predictions are also required for advanced combustion and gasification models. Due to unsatisfactory performance of theoretical equations, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions. This model outperforms other slag viscosity models, resulting in an average error factor of 5.05 which is lower than the best obtained with other available models. Genesee coal ash viscosity predictions were made to investigate the effect of adding Canadian limestone and dolomite. The results indicate that magnesium in the fluxing agent provides a greater viscosity reduction than calcium for the threshold slag tapping temperature range. (author)

  7. Porous Media and Immersed Boundary Hybrid-Modelling for Simulating Flow in Stone Cover-Layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjarne; Liu, Xiaofeng; Christensen, Erik Damgaard

    In this paper we present a new numerical modelling approach for coastal and marine applications where a porous media conceptual model was combined with a free surface volume-of-fluid (VOF) model and an immersed boundary method (IBM). The immersed boundary model covers the method of describing....... In this paper, the model is applied to investigate two practical cases in terms of a cover layer of stones on a flat bed under oscillatory flow at different packing densities, and a rock toe structure at a breakwater....

  8. The broad component of hydrogen emission lines in nuclei of Seyfert galaxies: Comments on a charge exchange model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katz, A.


    A model to account for the broad hydrogen line emission from the nuclei of Seyfert galaxies based on charge exchange and collisional processes, as proposed by Ptak and Stoner, is investigated. The model consists of a source of fast (E approx. 10 5 eV) protons streaming through a medium of quiescent gas. One of the major problems that results from such a model concerns the strong narrow hydrogen line core that would be produced, in direct conflict with the observations. The lines cannot arise from gas arranged throughout a spherical volume surrounding the source of the fast particles because the fast protons would produce far more ionizations than the possible number of recombinations. A very dense shell source of less than 1 AU in thickness and at least several tens of parsecs in radius must be invoked to reproduce the asymmetric broad profiles observed. There must be absorption throughout the center of the shell to account for the line profiles. The gas cannot be arranged in dense clumps throughout a large volume because momentum exchange of the gas with the primary particles would quickly accelerate any clumps. The energy balance and energy requirements of such a model are investigated, and it is found that an energy equal to or greater than the total luminosity of most Seyfert galaxies is required to produce the hydrogen line alone. The gas must be mostly neutral and den []e (N approx. 10 7 ) if a reasonable temperature is to be maintained

  9. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.


    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  10. Optimized Variational 1D Boussinesq Modelling for broad-band waves over flat bottom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakhturov, I.; Adytia, D.; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    The Variational Boussinesq Model (VBM) for waves above a layer of ideal fluid conserves mass, momentum, energy, and has decreased dimensionality compared to the full problem. It is derived from the Hamiltonian formulation via an approximation of the kinetic energy, and can provide approximate

  11. Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model (United States)

    Yeo, I.-Y.; Lee, S.; Sadeghi, A. M.; Beeson, P. C.; Hively, W. D.; McCarty, G. W.; Lang, M. W.


    Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality at the watershed scale (~ 50 km2) and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data to simulate hydrological processes and agricultural nutrient cycling over the period of 1990-2000. To accurately simulate winter cover crop biomass in relation to growing conditions, a new approach was developed to further calibrate plant growth parameters that control the leaf area development curve using multitemporal satellite-based measurements of species-specific winter cover crop performance. Multiple SWAT scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops and to investigate how nitrate loading could change under different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting dates, and implementation areas. The simulation results indicate that winter cover crops have a negligible impact on the water budget but significantly reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading from agricultural lands was approximately 14 kg ha-1, but decreased to 4.6-10.1 kg ha-1 with cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27-67% at the watershed scale. Rye was the most effective species, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of cover crops (~ 30

  12. Beam-based model of broad-band impedance of the Diamond Light Source (United States)

    Smaluk, Victor; Martin, Ian; Fielder, Richard; Bartolini, Riccardo


    In an electron storage ring, the interaction between a single-bunch beam and a vacuum chamber impedance affects the beam parameters, which can be measured rather precisely. So we can develop beam-based numerical models of longitudinal and transverse impedances. At the Diamond Light Source (DLS) to get the model parameters, a set of measured data has been used including current-dependent shift of betatron tunes and synchronous phase, chromatic damping rates, and bunch lengthening. A matlab code for multiparticle tracking has been developed. The tracking results and analytical estimations are quite consistent with the measured data. Since Diamond has the shortest natural bunch length among all light sources in standard operation, the studies of collective effects with short bunches are relevant to many facilities including next generation of light sources.

  13. Beam-based model of broad-band impedance of the Diamond Light Source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Smaluk


    Full Text Available In an electron storage ring, the interaction between a single-bunch beam and a vacuum chamber impedance affects the beam parameters, which can be measured rather precisely. So we can develop beam-based numerical models of longitudinal and transverse impedances. At the Diamond Light Source (DLS to get the model parameters, a set of measured data has been used including current-dependent shift of betatron tunes and synchronous phase, chromatic damping rates, and bunch lengthening. A matlab code for multiparticle tracking has been developed. The tracking results and analytical estimations are quite consistent with the measured data. Since Diamond has the shortest natural bunch length among all light sources in standard operation, the studies of collective effects with short bunches are relevant to many facilities including next generation of light sources.

  14. Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal (United States)

    Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen


    General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All

  15. Dynamic-stochastic modeling of snow cover formation on the European territory of Russia


    A. N. Gelfan; V. M. Moreido


    A dynamic-stochastic model, which combines a deterministic model of snow cover formation with a stochastic weather generator, has been developed. The deterministic snow model describes temporal change of the snow depth, content of ice and liquid water, snow density, snowmelt, sublimation, re-freezing of melt water, and snow metamorphism. The model has been calibrated and validated against the long-term data of snow measurements over the territory of the European Russia. The model showed good ...

  16. A simulation model for methane emissions from landfills with interaction of vegetation and cover soil. (United States)

    Bian, Rongxing; Xin, Danhui; Chai, Xiaoli


    Global climate change and ecological problems brought about by greenhouse gas effect have become a severe threat to humanity in the 21st century. Vegetation plays an important role in methane (CH 4 ) transport, oxidation and emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills as it modifies the physical and chemical properties of the cover soil, and transports CH 4 to the atmosphere directly via their conduits, which are mainly aerenchymatous structures. In this study, a novel 2-D simulation CH 4 emission model was established, based on an interactive mechanism of cover soil and vegetation, to model CH 4 transport, oxidation and emissions in landfill cover soil. Results of the simulation model showed that the distribution of CH 4 concentration and emission fluxes displayed a significant difference between vegetated and non-vegetated areas. CH 4 emission flux was 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than bare areas in simulation conditions. Vegetation play a negative role in CH 4 emissions from landfill cover soil due to the strong CH 4 transport capacity even though vegetation also promotes CH 4 oxidation via changing properties of cover soil and emitting O 2 via root system. The model will be proposed to allow decision makers to reconsider the actual CH 4 emission from vegetated and non-vegetated covered landfills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath


    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  18. Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model (United States)

    Yeo, In-Young; Lee, Sangchui; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Beeson, Peter C.; Hively, W. Dean; McCarty, Greg W.; Lang, Megan W.


    Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW), which is located in the Mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of winter cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops at the watershed scale and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically-based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data and satellite-based estimates of winter cover crop species performance to simulate hydrological processes and nutrient cycling over the period of 1991–2000. Multiple scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops planted and to investigate how nitrate loading could change with different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting times, and implementation areas. The results indicate that winter cover crops had a negligible impact on water budget, but significantly reduced nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading was approximately 14 kg ha−1, but it decreased to 4.6–10.1 kg ha−1 with winter cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27–67% at the watershed scale. Rye was most effective, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of winter cover crops (~30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~2 kg ha−1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of winter cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils

  19. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling. (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T


    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  20. Multi-epitope Models Explain How Pre-existing Antibodies Affect the Generation of Broadly Protective Responses to Influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika I Zarnitsyna


    Full Text Available The development of next-generation influenza vaccines that elicit strain-transcendent immunity against both seasonal and pandemic viruses is a key public health goal. Targeting the evolutionarily conserved epitopes on the stem of influenza's major surface molecule, hemagglutinin, is an appealing prospect, and novel vaccine formulations show promising results in animal model systems. However, studies in humans indicate that natural infection and vaccination result in limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA, and the level of stem-specific antibody elicited is insufficient to provide broad strain-transcendent immunity. Here, we use mathematical models of the humoral immune response to explore how pre-existing immunity affects the ability of vaccines to boost antibodies to the head and stem of HA in humans, and, in particular, how it leads to the apparent lack of boosting of broadly cross-reactive antibodies to the stem epitopes. We consider hypotheses where binding of antibody to an epitope: (i results in more rapid clearance of the antigen; (ii leads to the formation of antigen-antibody complexes which inhibit B cell activation through Fcγ receptor-mediated mechanism; and (iii masks the epitope and prevents the stimulation and proliferation of specific B cells. We find that only epitope masking but not the former two mechanisms to be key in recapitulating patterns in data. We discuss the ramifications of our findings for the development of vaccines against both seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  1. Modelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, Johan; Poska, Anneli


    In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6\\,000$ years over Europe. The model...... to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint...... confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical model's ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map...

  2. Mathematical modelling of water and gas transport in layered soil covers for coal ash deposits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, A; Lindgren, M [Kemakta Consultants Co, Stockholm (SE)


    In the present work the dry deposition alternative is investigated. In particular the design of soil covers is treated theoretically using mathematical models. The soil cover should primarily act as a barrier against infiltrating water. This is done by having soil cover materials with low permeabilities and sloping covers thereby diverting the infiltrating water in the lateral direction. An important design aspect is that overflow should be avoided since this may cause erosional problems. Thus the design of the cover should allow for lateral water flow within the cover. In the present work we use the computer code TRUST for calculating the flow rates and the moisture contents in two layer covers (till on top of clay) for varying conditions. The calculations so far show that the hydraulic conductivity of the clay layer should be smaller than 10{sup -8} m/s. However, for the simulated longer covers (50 m) a lower hydraulic conductivity gives overflow indicating that better lateral drainage must be provided for. This can be done by increasing the thickness or hydraulic conductivity of the till layer. Simulations for different slopes give little impact, while the hydraulic conductivity of the clay layer is of major importance. Gas transport through the soil cover may be of importance if the waste contains pyrite. In the presence of oxygen and water, pyrite is oxidized producing sulphuric acid. The lowered pH will accelerate the leaching of several heavy metals. The transport rate of gas through a porous material is very sensitive to the water content, decreasing rapidly with increasing water content. In the present work a model, where the unsaturated conditions are accounted for, is outlined. A previously developed method for calculating oxygen transport and oxidation rate of pyrite in connection with mine wastes is generalized from 1D to 2D. A sample calculation illustrates the feasibility of the method. (au) (43 refs.).


    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  4. A grid-based model of backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Steiner, Jakob F|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/119338653; Miles, Evan S.; Immerzeel, Wouter W|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113


    Ice cliffs might be partly responsible for the high mass losses of debris-covered glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region. The few existing models of cliff backwasting are point-scale models applied at few locations or assume cliffs to be planes with constant slope and aspect, a major

  5. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea


    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  6. Modeling surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics of a seasonally ice-covered hydroelectric reservoir. (United States)

    Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Strachan, Ian B; Tremblay, Alain


    The thermal dynamics of human created northern reservoirs (e.g., water temperatures and ice cover dynamics) influence carbon processing and air-water gas exchange. Here, we developed a process-based one-dimensional model (Snow, Ice, WAater, and Sediment: SIWAS) to simulate a full year's surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for a moderately large (>500km(2)) boreal hydroelectric reservoir in northern Quebec, Canada. There is a lack of climate and weather data for most of the Canadian boreal so we designed SIWAS with a minimum of inputs and with a daily time step. The modeled surface energy fluxes were consistent with six years of observations from eddy covariance measurements taken in the middle of the reservoir. The simulated water temperature profiles agreed well with observations from over 100 sites across the reservoir. The model successfully captured the observed annual trend of ice cover timing, although the model overestimated the length of ice cover period (15days). Sensitivity analysis revealed that air temperature significantly affects the ice cover duration, water and sediment temperatures, but that dissolved organic carbon concentrations have little effect on the heat fluxes, and water and sediment temperatures. We conclude that the SIWAS model is capable of simulating surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for boreal reservoirs in regions where high temporal resolution climate data are not available. SIWAS is suitable for integration into biogeochemical models for simulating a reservoir's carbon cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Remote sensing, hydrological modeling and in situ observations in snow cover research: A review (United States)

    Dong, Chunyu


    Snow is an important component of the hydrological cycle. As a major part of the cryosphere, snow cover also represents a valuable terrestrial water resource. In the context of climate change, the dynamics of snow cover play a crucial role in rebalancing the global energy and water budgets. Remote sensing, hydrological modeling and in situ observations are three techniques frequently utilized for snow cover investigations. However, the uncertainties caused by systematic errors, scale gaps, and complicated snow physics, among other factors, limit the usability of these three approaches in snow studies. In this paper, an overview of the advantages, limitations and recent progress of the three methods is presented, and more effective ways to estimate snow cover properties are evaluated. The possibility of improving remotely sensed snow information using ground-based observations is discussed. As a rapidly growing source of volunteered geographic information (VGI), web-based geotagged photos have great potential to provide ground truth data for remotely sensed products and hydrological models and thus contribute to procedures for cloud removal, correction, validation, forcing and assimilation. Finally, this review proposes a synergistic framework for the future of snow cover research. This framework highlights the cross-scale integration of in situ and remotely sensed snow measurements and the assimilation of improved remote sensing data into hydrological models.



    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha


    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  9. Analytical model for time to cover cracking in RC structures due to rebar corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, Kapilesh; Ghosh, A.K.; Mori, Yasuhiro; Ramanujam, S.


    The structural degradation of concrete structures due to reinforcement corrosion is a major worldwide problem. Reinforcement corrosion causes a volume increase due to the oxidation of metallic iron, which is mainly responsible for exerting the expansive radial pressure at the steel-concrete interface and development of hoop tensile stresses in the surrounding concrete. Cracking occurs, once the maximum hoop tensile stress exceeds the tensile strength of the concrete. The cracking begins at the steel-concrete interface and propagates outwards and eventually results in the thorough cracking of the cover concrete and this would indicate the loss of service life for the corrosion affected structures. An analytical model is proposed to predict the time required for cover cracking and the weight loss of reinforcing bar in corrosion affected reinforced concrete structures. The modelling aspects of the residual strength of cracked concrete and the stiffness contribution from the combination of reinforcement and expansive corrosion products have also been incorporated in the model. The problem is modeled as a boundary value problem and the governing equations are expressed in terms of the radial displacement. The analytical solutions are presented considering a simple two-zone model for the cover concrete, viz. cracked or uncracked. Reasonable estimation of the various parameters in the model related to the composition and properties of expansive corrosion products based on the available published experimental data has also been discussed. The performance of the proposed corrosion cracking model is then investigated through its ability to reproduce available experimental trends. Reasonably good agreement between experimental results and the analytical predictions has been obtained. It has also been found that tensile strength and initial tangent modulus of cover concrete, annual mean corrosion rate and modulus of elasticity of reinforcement plus corrosion products combined

  10. New Spectral Model for Constraining Torus Covering Factors from Broadband X-Ray Spectra of Active Galactic Nuclei (United States)

    Baloković, M.; Brightman, M.; Harrison, F. A.; Comastri, A.; Ricci, C.; Buchner, J.; Gandhi, P.; Farrah, D.; Stern, D.


    The basic unified model of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) invokes an anisotropic obscuring structure, usually referred to as a torus, to explain AGN obscuration as an angle-dependent effect. We present a new grid of X-ray spectral templates based on radiative transfer calculations in neutral gas in an approximately toroidal geometry, appropriate for CCD-resolution X-ray spectra (FWHM ≥ 130 eV). Fitting the templates to broadband X-ray spectra of AGNs provides constraints on two important geometrical parameters of the gas distribution around the supermassive black hole: the average column density and the covering factor. Compared to the currently available spectral templates, our model is more flexible, and capable of providing constraints on the main torus parameters in a wider range of AGNs. We demonstrate the application of this model using hard X-ray spectra from NuSTAR (3–79 keV) for four AGNs covering a variety of classifications: 3C 390.3, NGC 2110, IC 5063, and NGC 7582. This small set of examples was chosen to illustrate the range of possible torus configurations, from disk-like to sphere-like geometries with column densities below, as well as above, the Compton-thick threshold. This diversity of torus properties challenges the simple assumption of a standard geometrically and optically thick toroidal structure commonly invoked in the basic form of the unified model of AGNs. Finding broad consistency between our constraints and those from infrared modeling, we discuss how the approach from the X-ray band complements similar measurements of AGN structures at other wavelengths.

  11. Field Validation of Habitat Suitability Models for Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean: Implications for the use of Broad-scale Models in Fisheries Management (United States)

    Anderson, O. F.; Guinotte, J. M.; Clark, M. R.; Rowden, A. A.; Mormede, S.; Davies, A. J.; Bowden, D.


    Spatial management of vulnerable marine ecosystems requires accurate knowledge of their distribution. Predictive habitat suitability modelling, using species presence data and a suite of environmental predictor variables, has emerged as a useful tool for inferring distributions outside of known areas. However, validation of model predictions is typically performed with non-independent data. In this study, we describe the results of habitat suitability models constructed for four deep-sea reef-forming coral species across a large region of the South Pacific Ocean using MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Tree modelling approaches. In order to validate model predictions we conducted a photographic survey on a set of seamounts in an un-sampled area east of New Zealand. The likelihood of habitat suitable for reef forming corals on these seamounts was predicted to be variable, but very high in some regions, particularly where levels of aragonite saturation, dissolved oxygen, and particulate organic carbon were optimal. However, the observed frequency of coral occurrence in analyses of survey photographic data was much lower than expected, and patterns of observed versus predicted coral distribution were not highly correlated. The poor performance of these broad-scale models is attributed to lack of recorded species absences to inform the models, low precision of global bathymetry models, and lack of data on the geomorphology and substrate of the seamounts at scales appropriate to the modelled taxa. This demonstrates the need to use caution when interpreting and applying broad-scale, presence-only model results for fisheries management and conservation planning in data poor areas of the deep sea. Future improvements in the predictive performance of broad-scale models will rely on the continued advancement in modelling of environmental predictor variables, refinements in modelling approaches to deal with missing or biased inputs, and incorporation of true absence data.

  12. Modeling the Downstream Processing of Monoclonal Antibodies Reveals Cost Advantages for Continuous Methods for a Broad Range of Manufacturing Scales. (United States)

    Hummel, Jonathan; Pagkaliwangan, Mark; Gjoka, Xhorxhi; Davidovits, Terence; Stock, Rick; Ransohoff, Thomas; Gantier, Rene; Schofield, Mark


    The biopharmaceutical industry is evolving in response to changing market conditions, including increasing competition and growing pressures to reduce costs. Single-use (SU) technologies and continuous bioprocessing have attracted attention as potential facilitators of cost-optimized manufacturing for monoclonal antibodies. While disposable bioprocessing has been adopted at many scales of manufacturing, continuous bioprocessing has yet to reach the same level of implementation. In this study, the cost of goods of Pall Life Science's integrated, continuous bioprocessing (ICB) platform is modeled, along with that of purification processes in stainless-steel and SU batch formats. All three models include costs associated with downstream processing only. Evaluation of the models across a broad range of clinical and commercial scenarios reveal that the cost savings gained by switching from stainless-steel to SU batch processing are often amplified by continuous operation. The continuous platform exhibits the lowest cost of goods across 78% of all scenarios modeled here, with the SU batch process having the lowest costs in the rest of the cases. The relative savings demonstrated by the continuous process are greatest at the highest feed titers and volumes. These findings indicate that existing and imminent continuous technologies and equipment can become key enablers for more cost effective manufacturing of biopharmaceuticals. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. [Application of biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes in urban biodiversity conservation]. (United States)

    Gao, Tian; Qiu, Ling; Chen, Cun-gen


    Based on the biotope classification system with vegetation structure as the framework, a modified biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes was developed, and applied to the study of the greenbelts in Helsingborg in southern Sweden. An evaluation of the vegetation cover continuity in the greenbelts was carried out by the comparisons of the vascular plant species richness in long- and short-continuity forests, based on the identification of woodland continuity by using ancient woodland indicator species (AWIS). In the test greenbelts, long-continuity woodlands had more AWIS. Among the forests where the dominant trees were more than 30-year-old, the long-continuity ones had a higher biodiversity of vascular plants, compared with the short-continuity ones with the similar vegetation structure. The modified biotope mapping model integrated with the continuity features of vegetation cover could be an important tool in investigating urban biodiversity, and provide corresponding strategies for future urban biodiversity conservation.

  14. The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM) (United States)

    Shuttleworth, W. James; Sorooshian, Soroosh


    This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be

  15. Modeling the influence of snow cover temperature and water content on wet-snow avalanche runout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vera Valero


    Full Text Available Snow avalanche motion is strongly dependent on the temperature and water content of the snow cover. In this paper we use a snow cover model, driven by measured meteorological data, to set the initial and boundary conditions for wet-snow avalanche calculations. The snow cover model provides estimates of snow height, density, temperature and liquid water content. This information is used to prescribe fracture heights and erosion heights for an avalanche dynamics model. We compare simulated runout distances with observed avalanche deposition fields using a contingency table analysis. Our analysis of the simulations reveals a large variability in predicted runout for tracks with flat terraces and gradual slope transitions to the runout zone. Reliable estimates of avalanche mass (height and density in the release and erosion zones are identified to be more important than an exact specification of temperature and water content. For wet-snow avalanches, this implies that the layers where meltwater accumulates in the release zone must be identified accurately as this defines the height of the fracture slab and therefore the release mass. Advanced thermomechanical models appear to be better suited to simulate wet-snow avalanche inundation areas than existing guideline procedures if and only if accurate snow cover information is available.

  16. Modelling ice-cliff backwasting on a debris-covered glacier in the Nepalese Himalaya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steiner, Jakob F.; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113; Reid, Tim D.


    Ice cliffs have been identified as a reason for higher ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers than are implied by the insulation effects of the debris. This study aims to improve our understanding of cliff backwasting, and the role of radiative fluxes in particular. An energy-balance model is

  17. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, J.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca


    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of

  18. Failed Radiatively Accelerated Dusty Outflow Model of the Broad Line Region in Active Galactic Nuclei. I. Analytical Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, B.; Panda, S.; Wildy, C.; Sniegowska, M. [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong; Wang, J.-M. [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19B Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Hryniewicz, K.; Sredzinska, J. [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Karas, V., E-mail: [Astronomical Institute, Academy of Sciences, Bocni II 1401, CZ-141 00 Prague (Czech Republic)


    The physical origin of the broad line region in active galactic nuclei is still unclear despite many years of observational studies. The reason is that the region is unresolved, and the reverberation mapping results imply a complex velocity field. We adopt a theory-motivated approach to identify the principal mechanism responsible for this complex phenomenon. We consider the possibility that the role of dust is essential. We assume that the local radiation pressure acting on the dust in the accretion disk atmosphere launches the outflow of material, but higher above the disk the irradiation from the central parts causes dust evaporation and a subsequent fallback. This failed radiatively accelerated dusty outflow is expected to represent the material forming low ionization lines. In this paper we formulate simple analytical equations to describe the cloud motion, including the evaporation phase. The model is fully described just by the basic parameters of black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin, and viewing angle. We study how the spectral line generic profiles correspond to this dynamic. We show that the virial factor calculated from our model strongly depends on the black hole mass in the case of enhanced dust opacity, and thus it then correlates with the line width. This could explain why the virial factor measured in galaxies with pseudobulges differs from that obtained from objects with classical bulges, although the trend predicted by the current version of the model is opposite to the observed trend.

  19. An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect (United States)

    Carenzo, M.; Pellicciotti, F.; Mabillard, J.; Reid, T.; Brock, B. W.


    Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the

  20. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risto K Heikkinen

    Full Text Available Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina and one generalist (Issoria lathonia. Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity, with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

  1. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.


    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  2. Modeling neutralization kinetics of HIV by broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in genital secretions coating the cervicovaginal mucosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott A McKinley

    Full Text Available Eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAb in cervicovaginal mucus (CVM represents a promising "first line of defense" strategy to reduce vaginal HIV transmission. However, it remains unclear what levels of bnAb must be present in CVM to effectively reduce infection. We approached this complex question by modeling the dynamic tally of bnAb coverage on HIV. This analysis introduces a critical, timescale-dependent competition: to protect, bnAb must accumulate at sufficient stoichiometry to neutralize HIV faster than virions penetrate CVM and reach target cells. We developed a model that incorporates concentrations and diffusivities of HIV and bnAb in semen and CVM, kinetic rates for binding (kon and unbinding (koff of select bnAb, and physiologically relevant thicknesses of CVM and semen layers. Comprehensive model simulations lead to robust conclusions about neutralization kinetics in CVM. First, due to the limited time virions in semen need to penetrate CVM, substantially greater bnAb concentrations than in vitro estimates must be present in CVM to neutralize HIV. Second, the model predicts that bnAb with more rapid kon, almost independent of koff, should offer greater neutralization potency in vivo. These findings suggest the fastest arriving virions at target cells present the greatest likelihood of infection. It also implies the marked improvements in in vitro neutralization potency of many recently discovered bnAb may not translate to comparable reduction in the bnAb dose needed to confer protection against initial vaginal infections. Our modeling framework offers a valuable tool to gaining quantitative insights into the dynamics of mucosal immunity against HIV and other infectious diseases.

  3. Modeling neutralization kinetics of HIV by broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in genital secretions coating the cervicovaginal mucosa. (United States)

    McKinley, Scott A; Chen, Alex; Shi, Feng; Wang, Simi; Mucha, Peter J; Forest, M Gregory; Lai, Samuel K


    Eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAb) in cervicovaginal mucus (CVM) represents a promising "first line of defense" strategy to reduce vaginal HIV transmission. However, it remains unclear what levels of bnAb must be present in CVM to effectively reduce infection. We approached this complex question by modeling the dynamic tally of bnAb coverage on HIV. This analysis introduces a critical, timescale-dependent competition: to protect, bnAb must accumulate at sufficient stoichiometry to neutralize HIV faster than virions penetrate CVM and reach target cells. We developed a model that incorporates concentrations and diffusivities of HIV and bnAb in semen and CVM, kinetic rates for binding (kon) and unbinding (koff) of select bnAb, and physiologically relevant thicknesses of CVM and semen layers. Comprehensive model simulations lead to robust conclusions about neutralization kinetics in CVM. First, due to the limited time virions in semen need to penetrate CVM, substantially greater bnAb concentrations than in vitro estimates must be present in CVM to neutralize HIV. Second, the model predicts that bnAb with more rapid kon, almost independent of koff, should offer greater neutralization potency in vivo. These findings suggest the fastest arriving virions at target cells present the greatest likelihood of infection. It also implies the marked improvements in in vitro neutralization potency of many recently discovered bnAb may not translate to comparable reduction in the bnAb dose needed to confer protection against initial vaginal infections. Our modeling framework offers a valuable tool to gaining quantitative insights into the dynamics of mucosal immunity against HIV and other infectious diseases.

  4. Evaporation suppression from water reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale observations and model predictions (United States)

    Or, D.; Lehmann, P.; Aminzadeh, M.; Sommer, M.; Wey, H.; Wunderli, H.; Breitenstein, D.


    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design, and implementation remain largely empirical. Studies have shown that evaporation suppression is highly nonlinear, as also known from a century of research on gas exchange from plant leaves (that often evaporate as free water surfaces through stomata that are only 1% of leaf area). We report a systematic evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind+radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  5. Thermal behavior of laboratory models of honeycomb-covered solar ponds (United States)

    Lin, E. I. H.


    Laboratory experiments were conducted to provide insight into the technical feasibility of honeycomb-covered solar ponds. Cooling tests using honeycomb panels of various materials and geometries showed that a 5.7-cm-thick one-tier panel insulated as effectively as a 10-cm fiberglass slab. Heating tests demonstrated that a model pond covered with a polycarbonate panel boiled upon 16 hours of continuous exposure to a 150-W spotlight. Analysis of the experimental data indicates positively that honeycomb-covered solar ponds can be expected to perform satisfactorily, and that larger-scale outdoor tests should be conducted to provide a more realistic assessment and a more refined performance estimate.

  6. Population Structure in the Model Grass Brachypodium distachyon Is Highly Correlated with Flowering Differences across Broad Geographic Areas

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    Ludmila Tyler


    Full Text Available The small, annual grass (L. Beauv., a close relative of wheat ( L. and barley ( L., is a powerful model system for cereals and bioenergy grasses. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS of natural variation can elucidate the genetic basis of complex traits but have been so far limited in by the lack of large numbers of well-characterized and sufficiently diverse accessions. Here, we report on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS of 84 , seven , and three accessions with diverse geographic origins including Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Italy, Spain, and Turkey. Over 90,000 high-quality single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs distributed across the Bd21 reference genome were identified. Our results confirm the hybrid nature of the genome, which appears as a mosaic of -like and -like sequences. Analysis of more than 50,000 SNPs for the accessions revealed three distinct, genetically defined populations. Surprisingly, these genomic profiles are associated with differences in flowering time rather than with broad geographic origin. High levels of differentiation in loci associated with floral development support the differences in flowering phenology between populations. Genome-wide association studies combining genotypic and phenotypic data also suggest the presence of one or more photoperiodism, circadian clock, and vernalization genes in loci associated with flowering time variation within populations. Our characterization elucidates genes underlying population differences, expands the germplasm resources available for , and illustrates the feasibility and limitations of GWAS in this model grass.

  7. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed) (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.


    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  8. Qualification of a Plant Disease Simulation Model: Performance of the LATEBLIGHT Model Across a Broad Range of Environments. (United States)

    Andrade-Piedra, Jorge L; Forbes, Gregory A; Shtienberg, Dani; Grünwald, Niklaus J; Chacón, María G; Taipe, Marco V; Hijmans, Robert J; Fry, William E


    ABSTRACT The concept of model qualification, i.e., discovering the domain over which a validated model may be properly used, was illustrated with LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage. Late blight epidemics from Ecuador, Mexico, Israel, and the United States involving 13 potato cultivars (32 epidemics in total) were compared with model predictions using graphical and statistical tests. Fungicides were not applied in any of the epidemics. For the simulations, a host resistance level was assigned to each cultivar based on general categories reported by local investigators. For eight cultivars, the model predictions fit the observed data. For four cultivars, the model predictions overestimated disease, likely due to inaccurate estimates of host resistance. Model predictions were inconsistent for one cultivar and for one location. It was concluded that the domain of applicability of LATEBLIGHT can be extended from the range of conditions in Peru for which it has been previously validated to those observed in this study. A sensitivity analysis showed that, within the range of values observed empirically, LATEBLIGHT is more sensitive to changes in variables related to initial inoculum and to weather than to changes in variables relating to host resistance.

  9. Improving Students' Understanding of Molecular Structure through Broad-Based Use of Computer Models in the Undergraduate Organic Chemistry Lecture (United States)

    Springer, Michael T.


    Several articles suggest how to incorporate computer models into the organic chemistry laboratory, but relatively few papers discuss how to incorporate these models broadly into the organic chemistry lecture. Previous research has suggested that "manipulating" physical or computer models enhances student understanding; this study…

  10. Preferred Residential kitchen cabinets Cover Models: The Case of the province of Artvin

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    Abdi Atılgan


    Full Text Available In this study, residential kitchen cabinets today and should be preferred to determine the reasons for the cover models were investigated. The study of urban settlement area of ​​the province of Artvin, the different socio-economic (lower / middle / upper SES levels, cuisine sampling method was chosen families. Data were obtained from the poll and systematic observation. Determination of the outstanding elements of the study and interpretation of the choice of species to cover some of the statistical techniques used. According to the results, residential kitchen cabinets, the most multi-chipboard / mdflam cover (25%, aluminum framed door is at least (1.09% were used. Reasons to prefer the technological developments and the launch of new products, while effective proposals were received by property owners, manufacturers, cover models, significantly affects the reasons for cost differences should be preferred. Another important result, is a form of property owners to ensure the kitchen cabinets. Accordingly, the vast majority of users provided by way of kitchen furniture, in order, while the other places and provided in the reinforcing elements are usually prepared production are known.

  11. X-ray Emitting GHz-Peaked Spectrum Galaxies: Testing a Dynamical-Radiative Model with Broad-Band Spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostorero, L.; Moderski, R.; Stawarz, L.; Diaferio, A.; Kowalska, I.; Cheung, C.C.; Kataoka, J.; Begelman, M.C.; Wagner, S.J.


    In a dynamical-radiative model we recently developed to describe the physics of compact, GHz-Peaked-Spectrum (GPS) sources, the relativistic jets propagate across the inner, kpc-sized region of the host galaxy, while the electron population of the expanding lobes evolves and emits synchrotron and inverse-Compton (IC) radiation. Interstellar-medium gas clouds engulfed by the expanding lobes, and photoionized by the active nucleus, are responsible for the radio spectral turnover through free-free absorption (FFA) of the synchrotron photons. The model provides a description of the evolution of the GPS spectral energy distribution (SED) with the source expansion, predicting significant and complex high-energy emission, from the X-ray to the γ-ray frequency domain. Here, we test this model with the broad-band SEDs of a sample of eleven X-ray emitting GPS galaxies with Compact-Symmetric-Object (CSO) morphology, and show that: (i) the shape of the radio continuum at frequencies lower than the spectral turnover is indeed well accounted for by the FFA mechanism; (ii) the observed X-ray spectra can be interpreted as non-thermal radiation produced via IC scattering of the local radiation fields off the lobe particles, providing a viable alternative to the thermal, accretion-disk dominated scenario. We also show that the relation between the hydrogen column densities derived from the X-ray (N H ) and radio (N HI ) data of the sources is suggestive of a positive correlation, which, if confirmed by future observations, would provide further support to our scenario of high-energy emitting lobes.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Artamonov


    Full Text Available The linear vortical model ot the final scope of a wing is exsamined. It representis the flat rectangular spatial veil covered with continuously distributed vortical layer. Elements of digitization of a veil are the quadrangular panels laying on its surface. Method, algorithms and the program of calculation of three making vectors of inductive speed from any guided rectangular platform covered with a vortical layer are created. Its intensity linearly changes on the surface of a platform. The decision is received in elementary functions. The numerical way solves the task of a definition of the law of circulation of the attached whirlwinds in scope of a wing and calculation of its aerodynamic characteristics, being based on the accepted vortical model and a hypothesis of flat sections.

  13. Potential solar radiation and land cover contributions to digital climate surface modeling (United States)

    Puig, Pol; Batalla, Meritxell; Pesquer, Lluís; Ninyerola, Miquel


    Overview: We have designed a series of ad-hoc experiments to study the role of factors that a priori have a strong weight in developing digital models of temperature and precipitation, such as solar radiation and land cover. Empirical test beds have been designed to improve climate (mean air temperature and total precipitation) digital models using statistical general techniques (multiple regression) with residual correction (interpolated with inverse weighting distance). Aim: Understand what roles these two factors (solar radiation and land cover) play to incorporate them into the process of generating mapping of temperature and rainfall. Study area: The Iberian Peninsula and supported in this, Catalonia and the Catalan Pyrenees. Data: The dependent variables used in all experiments relate to data from meteorological stations precipitation (PL), mean temperature (MT), average temperature minimum (MN) and maximum average temperature (MX). These data were obtained monthly from the AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología). Data series of stations covers the period between 1950 to 2010. Methodology: The idea is to design ad hoc, based on a sample of more equitable space statistician, to detect the role of radiation. Based on the influence of solar radiation on the temperature of the air from a quantitative point of view, the difficulty in answering this lies in the fact that there are lots of weather stations located in areas where solar radiation is similar. This suggests that the role of the radiation variable remains "off" when, instead, we intuitively think that would strongly influence the temperature. We have developed a multiple regression analysis between these meteorological variables as the dependent ones (Temperature and rainfall), and some geographical variables: altitude (ALT), latitude (LAT), continentality (CON) and solar radiation (RAD) as the independent ones. In case of the experiment with land covers, we have used the NDVI index as a proxy of land

  14. Modeling of surface dust concentration in snow cover at industrial area using neural networks and kriging (United States)

    Sergeev, A. P.; Tarasov, D. A.; Buevich, A. G.; Shichkin, A. V.; Tyagunov, A. G.; Medvedev, A. N.


    Modeling of spatial distribution of pollutants in the urbanized territories is difficult, especially if there are multiple emission sources. When monitoring such territories, it is often impossible to arrange the necessary detailed sampling. Because of this, the usual methods of analysis and forecasting based on geostatistics are often less effective. Approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) demonstrate the best results under these circumstances. This study compares two models based on ANNs, which are multilayer perceptron (MLP) and generalized regression neural networks (GRNNs) with the base geostatistical method - kriging. Models of the spatial dust distribution in the snow cover around the existing copper quarry and in the area of emissions of a nickel factory were created. To assess the effectiveness of the models three indices were used: the mean absolute error (MAE), the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE). Taking into account all indices the model of GRNN proved to be the most accurate which included coordinates of the sampling points and the distance to the likely emission source as input parameters for the modeling. Maps of spatial dust distribution in the snow cover were created in the study area. It has been shown that the models based on ANNs were more accurate than the kriging, particularly in the context of a limited data set.

  15. Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models (United States)

    Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.


    This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

  16. A Joint Land Cover Mapping and Image Registration Algorithm Based on a Markov Random Field Model

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    Apisit Eiumnoh


    Full Text Available Traditionally, image registration of multi-modal and multi-temporal images is performed satisfactorily before land cover mapping. However, since multi-modal and multi-temporal images are likely to be obtained from different satellite platforms and/or acquired at different times, perfect alignment is very difficult to achieve. As a result, a proper land cover mapping algorithm must be able to correct registration errors as well as perform an accurate classification. In this paper, we propose a joint classification and registration technique based on a Markov random field (MRF model to simultaneously align two or more images and obtain a land cover map (LCM of the scene. The expectation maximization (EM algorithm is employed to solve the joint image classification and registration problem by iteratively estimating the map parameters and approximate posterior probabilities. Then, the maximum a posteriori (MAP criterion is used to produce an optimum land cover map. We conducted experiments on a set of four simulated images and one pair of remotely sensed images to investigate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm. Our results show that, with proper selection of a critical MRF parameter, the resulting LCMs derived from an unregistered image pair can achieve an accuracy that is as high as when images are perfectly aligned. Furthermore, the registration error can be greatly reduced.

  17. Distributed Modelling of Stormflow Generation: Assessing the Effect of Ground Cover (United States)

    Jarihani, B.; Sidle, R. C.; Roth, C. H.; Bartley, R.; Wilkinson, S. N.


    Understanding the effects of grazing management and land cover changes on surface hydrology is important for water resources and land management. A distributed hydrological modelling platform, wflow, (that was developed as part of Deltares's OpenStreams project) is used to assess the effect of land management practices on runoff generation processes. The model was applied to Weany Creek, a small catchment (13.6 km2) of the Burdekin Basin, North Australia, which is being studied to understand sources of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. Satellite and drone-based ground cover data, high resolution topography from LiDAR, soil properties, and distributed rainfall data were used to parameterise the model. Wflow was used to predict total runoff, peak runoff, time of rise, and lag time for several events of varying magnitudes and antecedent moisture conditions. A nested approach was employed to calibrate the model by using recorded flow hydrographs at three scales: (1) a hillslope sub-catchment: (2) a gullied sub-catchment; and the 13.6 km2 catchment outlet. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and predicted stormflow hydrograph attributes using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric. By using a nested approach, spatiotemporal patterns of overland flow occurrence across the catchment can also be evaluated. The results show that a process-based distributed model can be calibrated to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of runoff generation processes, to help identify dominant processes which may be addressed by land management to improve rainfall retention. The model will be used to assess the effects of ground cover changes due to management practices in grazed lands on storm runoff.

  18. Development of a model to calculate the overall heat transfer coefficient of greenhouse covers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasheed, A.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, H.L.


    A Building Energy Simulation (BES) model based on TRNSYS, was developed to investigate the overall heat transfer coefficient (U-value) of greenhouse covers including polyethylene (PE), polycarbonate (PC), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and horticultural glass (HG). This was used to determine the influences of inside-to-outside temperature difference, wind speed, and night sky radiation on the U-values of these materials. The model was calibrated using published values of the inside and outside convective heat transfer coefficients. Validation of the model was demonstrated by the agreement between the computed and experimental results for a single-layer PE film. The results from the BES model showed significant changes in U-value in response to variations in weather parameters and the use of single or double layer greenhouse covers. It was found that the U-value of PC, PVC, and HG was 9%, 4%, and 15% lower, respectively, than that for PE. In addition, by using double glazing a 34% reduction in heat loss was noted. For the given temperature U-value increases as wind speed increases. The slopes at the temperature differences of 20, 30, 40, and 50 °C, were approximately 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9, respectively. The results agree with those put forward by other researchers. Hence, the presented model is reliable and can play a valuable role in future work on greenhouse energy modelling.

  19. Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data

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    R. Greco


    Full Text Available A one-dimensional hydrological model of a slope covered with pyroclastic materials is proposed. The soil cover is constituted by layers of loose volcanic ashes and pumices, with a total thickness between 1.8 m and 2.5 m, lying upon a fractured limestone bedrock. The mean inclination of the slope is around 40°, slightly larger than the friction angle of the ashes. Thus, the equilibrium of the slope, significantly affected by the cohesive contribution exerted by soil suction in unsaturated conditions, may be altered by rainfall infiltration. The model assumes a single homogeneous soil layer occupying the entire depth of the cover, and takes into account seasonally variable canopy interception of precipitation and root water uptake by vegetation, mainly constituted by deciduous chestnut woods with a dense underbrush growing during late spring and summer. The bottom boundary condition links water potential at the soil–bedrock interface with the fluctuations of the water table of the aquifer located in the fractured limestone, which is conceptually modelled as a linear reservoir. Most of the model parameters have been assigned according to literature indications or from experimental data. Soil suction and water content data measured between 1 January 2011 and 20 July 2011 at a monitoring station installed along the slope allowed the remaining parameters to be identified. The calibrated model, which reproduced very closely the data of the calibration set, has been applied to the simulation of the hydrological response of the slope to the hourly precipitation record of 1999, when a large flow-like landslide was triggered close to the monitored location. The simulation results show that the lowest soil suction ever attained occurred just at the time the landslide was triggered, indicating that the model is capable of predicting slope failure conditions.

  20. Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: a regional climate model perspective (United States)

    Steger, Christian; Kotlarski, Sven; Jonas, Tobias; Schär, Christoph


    An analysis is presented of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) experiments from the ENSEMBLES project in terms of mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), the seasonal evolution of snow cover, and the duration of the continuous snow cover season in the European Alps. Two sets of simulations are considered, one driven by GCMs assuming the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario for the period 1951-2099, and the other by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the recent past. The simulated SWE for Switzerland for the winters 1971-2000 is validated against an observational data set derived from daily snow depth measurements. Model validation shows that the RCMs are capable of simulating the general spatial and seasonal variability of Alpine snow cover, but generally underestimate snow at elevations below 1,000 m and overestimate snow above 1,500 m. Model biases in snow cover can partly be related to biases in the atmospheric forcing. The analysis of climate projections for the twenty first century reveals high inter-model agreement on the following points: The strongest relative reduction in winter mean SWE is found below 1,500 m, amounting to 40-80 % by mid century relative to 1971-2000 and depending upon the model considered. At these elevations, mean winter temperatures are close to the melting point. At higher elevations the decrease of mean winter SWE is less pronounced but still a robust feature. For instance, at elevations of 2,000-2,500 m, SWE reductions amount to 10-60 % by mid century and to 30-80 % by the end of the century. The duration of the continuous snow cover season shows an asymmetric reduction with strongest shortening in springtime when ablation is the dominant factor for changes in SWE. We also find a substantial ensemble-mean reduction of snow reliability relevant to winter tourism at elevations below about 1,800 m by mid century, and at elevations below about 2,000 m by the end of the century.

  1. Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model (United States)

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew


    Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

  2. Application of a niche-based model for forest cover classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amici V


    Full Text Available In recent years, a surge of interest in biodiversity conservation have led to the development of new approaches to facilitate ecologically-based conservation policies and management plans. In particular, image classification and predictive distribution modeling applied to forest habitats, constitute a crucial issue as forests constitute the most widespread vegetation type and play a key role for ecosystem functioning. Then, the general purpose of this study is to develop a framework that in the absence of large amounts of field data for large areas may allow to select the most appropriate classification. In some cases, a hard division of classes is required, especially as support to environmental policies; despite this it is necessary to take into account problems which derive from a crisp view of ecological entities being mapped, since habitats are expected to be structurally complex and continuously vary within a landscape. In this paper, a niche model (MaxEnt, generally used to estimate species/habitat distribution, has been applied to classify forest cover in a complex Mediterranean area and to estimate the probability distribution of four forest types, producing continuous maps of forest cover. The use of the obtained models as validation of model for crisp classifications, highlighted that crisp classification, which is being continuously used in landscape research and planning, is not free from drawbacks as it is showing a high degree of inner variability. The modeling approach followed by this study, taking into account the uncertainty proper of the natural ecosystems and the use of environmental variables in land cover classification, may represent an useful approach to making more efficient and effective field inventories and to developing effective forest conservation policies.

  3. Urban slum structure: integrating socioeconomic and land cover data to model slum evolution in Salvador, Brazil. (United States)

    Hacker, Kathryn P; Seto, Karen C; Costa, Federico; Corburn, Jason; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A


    The expansion of urban slums is a key challenge for public and social policy in the 21st century. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of slum communities limits the use of rigid slum definitions. A systematic and flexible approach to characterize, delineate and model urban slum structure at an operational resolution is essential to plan, deploy, and monitor interventions at the local and national level. We modeled the multi-dimensional structure of urban slums in the city of Salvador, a city of 3 million inhabitants in Brazil, by integrating census-derived socioeconomic variables and remotely-sensed land cover variables. We assessed the correlation between the two sets of variables using canonical correlation analysis, identified land cover proxies for the socioeconomic variables, and produced an integrated map of deprivation in Salvador at 30 m × 30 m resolution. The canonical analysis identified three significant ordination axes that described the structure of Salvador census tracts according to land cover and socioeconomic features. The first canonical axis captured a gradient from crowded, low-income communities with corrugated roof housing to higher-income communities. The second canonical axis discriminated among socioeconomic variables characterizing the most marginalized census tracts, those without access to sanitation or piped water. The third canonical axis accounted for the least amount of variation, but discriminated between high-income areas with white-painted or tiled roofs from lower-income areas. Our approach captures the socioeconomic and land cover heterogeneity within and between slum settlements and identifies the most marginalized communities in a large, complex urban setting. These findings indicate that changes in the canonical scores for slum areas can be used to track their evolution and to monitor the impact of development programs such as slum upgrading.

  4. Analysis and Modeling of Urban Land Cover Change in Setúbal and Sesimbra, Portugal

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    Yikalo H. Araya


    Full Text Available The expansion of cities entails the abandonment of forest and agricultural lands, and these lands’ conversion into urban areas, which results in substantial impacts on ecosystems. Monitoring these changes and planning urban development can be successfully achieved using multitemporal remotely sensed data, spatial metrics, and modeling. In this paper, urban land use change analysis and modeling was carried out for the Concelhos of Setúbal and Sesimbra in Portugal. An existing land cover map for the year 1990, together with two derived land cover maps from multispectral satellite images for the years 2000 and 2006, were utilized using an object-oriented classification approach. Classification accuracy assessment revealed satisfactory results that fulfilled minimum standard accuracy levels. Urban land use dynamics, in terms of both patterns and quantities, were studied using selected landscape metrics and the Shannon Entropy index. Results show that urban areas increased by 91.11% between 1990 and 2006. In contrast, the change was only 6.34% between 2000 and 2006. The entropy value was 0.73 for both municipalities in 1990, indicating a high rate of urban sprawl in the area. In 2006, this value, for both Sesimbra and Setúbal, reached almost 0.90. This is demonstrative of a tendency toward intensive urban sprawl. Urban land use change for the year 2020 was modeled using a Cellular Automata based approach. The predictive power of the model was successfully validated using Kappa variations. Projected land cover changes show a growing tendency in urban land use, which might threaten areas that are currently reserved for natural parks and agricultural lands.

  5. Modelling of stable isotope fractionation by methane oxidation and diffusion in landfill cover soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahieu, Koenraad; De Visscher, Alex; Vanrolleghem, Peter A.; Van Cleemput, Oswald


    A technique to measure biological methane oxidation in landfill cover soils that is gaining increased interest is the measurement of stable isotope fractionation in the methane. Usually to quantify methane oxidation, only fractionation by oxidation is taken into account. Recently it was shown that neglecting the isotope fractionation by diffusion results in underestimation of the methane oxidation. In this study a simulation model was developed that describes gas transport and methane oxidation in landfill cover soils. The model distinguishes between 12 CH 4 , 13 CH 4 , and 12 CH 3 D explicitly, and includes isotope fractionation by diffusion and oxidation. To evaluate the model, the simulations were compared with column experiments from previous studies. The predicted concentration profiles and isotopic profiles match the measured ones very well, with a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 1.7 vol% in the concentration and a RMSD of 0.8 per mille in the δ 13 C value, with δ 13 C the relative 13 C abundance as compared to an international standard. Overall, the comparison shows that a model-based isotope approach for the determination of methane oxidation efficiencies is feasible and superior to existing isotope methods

  6. Cartographic modelling of aerotechnogenic pollution in snow cover in the landscapes of the Kola Peninsula. (United States)

    Ratkin, N E; Asming, V E; Koshkin, V V


    The goal of this work was to develop computational techniques for sulphates, nickel and copper accumulation in the snow in the local pollution zone. The main task was to reveal the peculiarities of formation and pollution of snow cover on the region with complex cross-relief. A digital cartographic model of aerotechnogenic pollution of snow cover in the landscapes of the local zone has been developed, based on five-year experimental data. Data regarding annual emissions from the industrial complex, information about distribution of wind and the sum of precipitation from meteostation "Nikel" for the winter period, allowed the model to ensure: * material presentation in the form of maps of water capacity and accumulation of sulphates, nickel and copper in the snow over any winter period in retrospective; * calculation of water capacity and accumulation of pollutants for watersheds and other natural-territorial complexes; * solution of the opposite problem about the determination of the emissions of sulphates, nickel and copper from the enterprise by measuring snow pollution in datum points. The model can be used in other northern regions of the Russian Federation with similar physical-geographical and climatic conditions. The relationships between the sum of precipitation and water capacity in the landscapes of the same type and also the relationships between pollution content in snow and relief, pollution content in snow and distance from the source of emissions, were used as the basis for the model.

  7. Dynamic-stochastic modeling of snow cover formation on the European territory of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Gelfan


    Full Text Available A dynamic-stochastic model, which combines a deterministic model of snow cover formation with a stochastic weather generator, has been developed. The deterministic snow model describes temporal change of the snow depth, content of ice and liquid water, snow density, snowmelt, sublimation, re-freezing of melt water, and snow metamorphism. The model has been calibrated and validated against the long-term data of snow measurements over the territory of the European Russia. The model showed good performance in simulating time series of the snow water equivalent and snow depth. The developed weather generator (NEsted Weather Generator, NewGen includes nested generators of annual, monthly and daily time series of weather variables (namely, precipitation, air temperature, and air humidity. The parameters of the NewGen have been adjusted through calibration against the long-term meteorological data in the European Russia. A disaggregation procedure has been proposed for transforming parameters of the annual weather generator into the parameters of the monthly one and, subsequently, into the parameters of the daily generator. Multi-year time series of the simulated daily weather variables have been used as an input to the snow model. Probability properties of the snow cover, such as snow water equivalent and snow depth for return periods of 25 and 100 years, have been estimated against the observed data, showing good correlation coefficients. The described model has been applied to different landscapes of European Russia, from steppe to taiga regions, to show the robustness of the proposed technique.

  8. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.


    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  9. Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey


    Baysal, Gülendam


    Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...

  10. Finite mixture models for sub-pixel coastal land cover classification

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ritchie, Michaela C


    Full Text Available Models for Sub- pixel Coastal Land Cover Classification M. Ritchie Dr. M. Lück-Vogel Dr. P. Debba Dr. V. Goodall ISRSE - 37 Tshwane, South Africa 10 May 2017 2Study Area Africa South Africa FALSE BAY 3Strand Gordon’s Bay Study Area WorldView-2 Image.../Urban 1 10 10 Herbaceous Vegetation 1 5 5 Shadow 1 8 8 Sparse Vegetation 1 3 3 Water 1 10 10 Woody Vegetation 1 5 5 11 Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) 12 Gaussian Mixture Discriminant Analysis (GMDA) 13 A B C t-distribution Mixture Discriminant...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wu


    Full Text Available Web service composition is one of the key issues to develop a global land cover (GLC information service portal. Aiming at the defect that traditional syntax and semantic service compositionare difficult to take pragmatic information into account, the paper firstly analyses three tiers of web service language and their succession relations, discusses the conceptual model of pragmatic web service, and proposes the idea of pragmatics-oriented adaptive composition method based on the analysis of some examples. On this basis it puts forward the pragmatic web service model based on Behavior-Intention through presetting and expression of service usability, users' intention, and other pragmatic information, develops the on-demand assembly method based on the agent theory and matching and reconstruction method on heterogeneous message, solves the key technological issue of algorithm applicability and heterogeneous message transformation in the process of covering web service composition on the ground, applies these methods into service combination, puts forward the pragmatic driven service composition method based on behavior-intention model, and effectively settles the issue of coordination and interaction of composite service invocation.

  12. Modeling the Thickness of Perennial Ice Covers on Stratified Lakes of the Taylor Valley, Antarctica (United States)

    Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Hicks, J. A.; McKay, C. P.; Priscu, J. C.


    A one-dimensional ice cover model was developed to predict and constrain drivers of long term ice thickness trends in chemically stratified lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The model is driven by surface radiative heat fluxes and heat fluxes from the underlying water column. The model successfully reproduced 16 years (between 1996 and 2012) of ice thickness changes for west lobe of Lake Bonney (average ice thickness = 3.53 m; RMSE = 0.09 m, n = 118) and Lake Fryxell (average ice thickness = 4.22 m; RMSE = 0.21 m, n = 128). Long-term ice thickness trends require coupling with the thermal structure of the water column. The heat stored within the temperature maximum of lakes exceeding a liquid water column depth of 20 m can either impede or facilitate ice thickness change depending on the predominant climatic trend (temperature cooling or warming). As such, shallow (< 20 m deep water columns) perennially ice-covered lakes without deep temperature maxima are more sensitive indicators of climate change. The long-term ice thickness trends are a result of surface energy flux and heat flux from the deep temperature maximum in the water column, the latter of which results from absorbed solar radiation.

  13. Snow cover and End of Summer Snowline statistics from a simple stochastic model (United States)

    Petrelli, A.; Crouzy, B.; Perona, P.


    One essential parameter characterizing snow cover statistics is the End Of Summer Snowline (EOSS), which is also a good indicator of actual climatic trends in mountain regions. EOSS is usually modelled by means of spatially distributed physically based models, and typically require heavy parameterization. In this paper we validate the simple stochastic model proposed by Perona et al. (2007), by showing that the snow cover statistics and the position of EOSS can in principle be explained by only four essential (meteorological) parameters. Perona et al. (2007) proposed a model accounting for stochastic snow accumulation in the cold period, and deterministic melting dynamics in the warm period, and studied the statistical distribution of the snowdepth on the long term. By reworking the ensemble average of the steady state evolution equation we single out a relationship between the snowdepth statistics (including the position of EOSS) and the involved parameters. The validation of the established relationship is done using 50 years of field data from 73 Swiss stations located above 2000 m a.s.l. First an estimation of the meteorological parameters is made. Snow height data are used as a precipitation proxy, using temperature data to estimate SWE during the precipitation event. Thresholds are used both to separate accumulation from actual precipitation and wind transport phenomena, and to better assess summer melting rate, considered to be constant over the melting period according to the simplified model. First results show that data for most of the weather stations actually scales with the proposed relationship. This indicates that, on the long term, the effect of spatial and temporal noise masks most of the process detail so that minimalist models suffice to obtain reliable statistics. Future works will test the validity of this approach at different spatial scales, e.g., regional, continental and planetary. Reference: P. Perona, A. Porporato, and L. Ridolfi, "A

  14. Pairing FLUXNET sites to validate model representations of land-use/land-cover change (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhichang; Schultz, Natalie M.


    Land surface energy and water fluxes play an important role in land-atmosphere interactions, especially for the climatic feedback effects driven by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC). These have long been documented in model-based studies, but the performance of land surface models in representing LULCC-induced responses has not been investigated well. In this study, measurements from proximate paired (open versus forest) flux tower sites are used to represent observed deforestation-induced changes in surface fluxes, which are compared with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land model. Point-scale simulations suggest the CLM can represent the observed diurnal and seasonal changes in net radiation (Rnet) and ground heat flux (G), but difficulties remain in the energy partitioning between latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat flux. The CLM does not capture the observed decreased daytime LE, and overestimates the increased H during summer. These deficiencies are mainly associated with models' greater biases over forest land-cover types and the parameterization of soil evaporation. Global gridded simulations with the CLM show uncertainties in the estimation of LE and H at the grid level for regional and global simulations. Noah-MP exhibits a similar ability to simulate the surface flux changes, but with larger biases in H, G, and Rnet change during late winter and early spring, which are related to a deficiency in estimating albedo. Differences in meteorological conditions between paired sites is not a factor in these results. Attention needs to be devoted to improving the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC simulations.

  15. Channel Model of Molecular Communication via Diffusion in a Vessel-like Environment Considering a Partially Covering Receiver


    Turan, Meriç; Kuran, Mehmet Sukru; Yilmaz, H. Birkan; Demirkol, Ilker; Tugcu, Tuna


    By considering potential health problems that a fully covering receiver may cause in vessel-like environments, the implementation of a partially covering receiver is needed. To this end, distribution of hitting location of messenger molecules (MM) is analyzed within the context of molecular communication via diffusion with the aim of channel modeling. The distribution of these MMs for a fully covering receiver is analyzed in two parts: angular and radial dimensions. For the angular distributi...

  16. A Mixed Land Cover Spatio-temporal Data Model Based on Object-oriented and Snapshot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Yinchao


    Full Text Available Spatio-temporal data model (STDM is one of the hot topics in the domains of spatio-temporal database and data analysis. There is a common view that a universal STDM is always of high complexity due to the various situation of spatio-temporal data. In this article, a mixed STDM is proposed based on object-oriented and snapshot models for modelling and analyzing landcover change (LCC. This model uses the object-oriented STDM to describe the spatio-temporal processes of land cover patches and organize their spatial and attributive properties. In the meantime, it uses the snapshot STDM to present the spatio-temporal distribution of LCC on the whole via snapshot images. The two types of models are spatially and temporally combined into a mixed version. In addition to presenting the spatio-temporal events themselves, this model could express the transformation events between different classes of spatio-temporal objects. It can be used to create database for historical data of LCC, do spatio-temporal statistics, simulation and data mining with the data. In this article, the LCC data in Heilongjiang province is used for case study to validate spatio-temporal data management and analysis abilities of mixed STDM, including creating database, spatio-temporal query, global evolution analysis and patches spatio-temporal process expression.

  17. The histological components of the phoniatrical body-cover model in minipigs of different ages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Lang

    Full Text Available Pigs are models in human phoniatry. However, features of maturation and ageing have not been considered with regard to the so-called body-cover model in this species. Therefore, the glottis of "young" (2-3 months; n = 6 and "old" (4-7 years; n = 6 minipigs was investigated. Their cranial (CraF and caudal (CauF vocal folds were histomorphometrically and stratigraphically analysed with emphasis on their amounts of collagen structures and elastic fibres. A dense subepithelial layer (SEL was a distinct feature of CraF and CauF of both age groups; it was spread upon the underlying loose, flexible "cover" like a fibro-elastic membrane. The "cover" was characterised by the so-called superficial layer (SL, which was distinctly loose in the "young" minipigs, but had a much denser texture in the "old" minipigs. Here, the SL was dominated by elastic fibres in the CraF, but was of mixed qualities (collagenous and elastic in the CauF. The structural requirements for the SL's function as a loose "cover" were thus met only in the "young" animals. A clearly demarcated intermediate layer (IL--characterised by high amounts of elastic fibres (as in humans--was only found in the CraF of the "young" animals. In the "old" animals, it had lost its demarcation. In the depth of the CraF of the "old" animals, many thick collagen fibre bundles were detected in a location equivalent to that of the vocal muscle in the CauF. The development of their large diameters was interpreted as part of the maturation process, thereby supporting the hypothesis of their functional importance as a component of the "body." In the CauF, the amounts of collagen structures increased throughout the entire lamina propria, resulting in a loss of demarcated stratigraphical subdivisions in the "old" minipigs. This situation resembled that described in the vocal fold of geriatric humans.

  18. From forest to farmland and moraine to meadow: Integrated modeling of Holocene land cover change (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.


    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene, both spatially and temporally. In order to address this problem, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive these integrated models with paleoclimate from GCM scenarios, a new synthesis of global demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a global database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate land cover and land use change, fire, soil erosion, and emissions of CO2 and methane (CH4) from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850. We evaluate our simulations in part with a new set of continental-scale reconstructions of land cover based on records from the Global Pollen Database. Our model results show that climate and tectonic change controlled global land cover in the early Holocene, e.g., shifts in forest biomes in northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits, but that by the early Iron Age (1000 BC), humans in Europe, east Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. 3000 years before present, anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. Burned area and emissions of CO2 and CH4 from wildfires declined slowly over the entire Holocene, as landscape fragmentation and changing agricultural

  19. Modeling broad-scale patterns of avian species richness across the Midwestern United States with measures of satellite image texture (United States)

    Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff; Veronique St-Louis; Curtis H. Flather; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon


    Avian biodiversity is threatened, and in order to prioritize limited conservation resources and conduct effective conservation planning a better understanding of avian species richness patterns is needed. The use of image texture measures, as a proxy for the spatial structure of land cover and vegetation, has proven useful in explaining patterns of avian abundance and...

  20. The value of urban tree cover: A hedonic property price model in Ramsey and Dakota Counties, Minnesota, USA (United States)

    Heather Sander; Stephen Polasky; Robert. Haight


    Urban tree cover benefits communities. These benefits' economic values, however, are poorly recognized and often ignored by landowners and planners. We use hedonic property price modeling to estimate urban tree cover's value in Dakota and Ramsey Counties, MN, USA, predicting housing value as a function of structural, neighborhood, and environmental variables...

  1. Modelling land cover change effects on catchment-to-lake sediment transfer (United States)

    Smith, Hugh; Peñuela Fernández, Andres; Sellami, Haykel; Sangster, Heather; Boyle, John; Chiverrell, Richard; Riley, Mark


    Measurements of catchment soil erosion and sediment transfer to streams and lakes are limited and typically short duration (physical and social records coupled with high-resolution, sub-annual simulations of catchment-to-lake soil erosion and sedimentation. This choice of modelling period represents a compromise between the length of record and data availability for model parameterisation. We combine historic datasets for climate and land cover from four lake catchments in Britain with a fully revised catchment-scale modelling approach based on the Morgan-Morgan-Finney model, called MMF-TWI, that incorporates new elements representing plant growth, soil water balance and variable runoff and sediment contributing areas. The catchments comprise an intensively-farmed lowland agricultural catchment and three upland catchments. Historic change simulations were compared with sedimentation rates determined from multiple dated cores taken from each lake. Our revised modelling approach produced generally comparable rates of lake sediment flux to those based on sediment archives. Moreover, these centennial scale records form the basis for examining hypothetical scenarios linked to changes in crop rotation (lowland) and riparian re-afforestation (uplands), as well as providing an extended historic baseline against which to compare future climate effects on runoff, erosion and lake sediment delivery.

  2. Estimation of Tree Cover in an Agricultural Parkland of Senegal Using Rule-Based Regression Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie M. Herrmann


    Full Text Available Field trees are an integral part of the farmed parkland landscape in West Africa and provide multiple benefits to the local environment and livelihoods. While field trees have received increasing interest in the context of strengthening resilience to climate variability and change, the actual extent of farmed parkland and spatial patterns of tree cover are largely unknown. We used the rule-based predictive modeling tool Cubist® to estimate field tree cover in the west-central agricultural region of Senegal. A collection of rules and associated multiple linear regression models was constructed from (1 a reference dataset of percent tree cover derived from very high spatial resolution data (2 m Orbview as the dependent variable, and (2 ten years of 10-day 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI composites and derived phenological metrics as independent variables. Correlation coefficients between modeled and reference percent tree cover of 0.88 and 0.77 were achieved for training and validation data respectively, with absolute mean errors of 1.07 and 1.03 percent tree cover. The resulting map shows a west-east gradient from high tree cover in the peri-urban areas of horticulture and arboriculture to low tree cover in the more sparsely populated eastern part of the study area. A comparison of current (2000s tree cover along this gradient with historic cover as seen on Corona images reveals dynamics of change but also areas of remarkable stability of field tree cover since 1968. The proposed modeling approach can help to identify locations of high and low tree cover in dryland environments and guide ground studies and management interventions aimed at promoting the integration of field trees in agricultural systems.

  3. Modeling the Long-Term Evolution of Supraglacial Ice Cliffs on Himalayan Debris-Covered Glaciers (United States)

    Buri, P.; Miles, E. S.; Steiner, J. F.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.


    Supraglacial ice cliffs are present on debris-covered glaciers worldwide and provide the only direct atmosphere-ice interface over the lower sections of these glaciers. Low albedo and high longwave emissions from surrounding debris cause very high melt rates, accounting for a significant portion of total glacier mass loss. As a result, ice cliffs affect glacier downwasting and mass balance. Additionally, and in contrast to the debris-covered ice, high melt at cliffs turns them into dynamic features, directly affecting glacier surface evolution. While conceptual ideas about the formation, evolution and collapse of ice cliffs exist, their life cycles have never been thoroughly documented. Based on observations obtained from high-resolution aerial and terrestrial images analyzed with Structure-from-Motion and with data from automatic weather stations on two glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya, we simulate the evolution of selected ice cliffs over several seasons using a new physically-based model of cliff backwasting. The 3D model calculates the energy-balance at the cliff scale and includes the cliff interaction with supraglacial ponds and reburial by debris. We consider cliffs of different shape, orientation and slope, and we show that backwasting leads to a variety of evolution typologies, with cliffs that maintain a constant, self-similar geometry, cliffs that grow laterally and cliffs that disappear through slope shallowing and debris melt-out. Most cliffs persist over several seasons. The presence of a pond appears to be the key control for cliffs to survive, while east and west facing cliffs grow because of higher radiation receipts. We use the model to test the hypothesis that south-facing cliffs do not survive. We show that most south-facing cliffs demise after one melt season on both glaciers, because of high input of solar radiation exceeding the longwave radiation receipt. For north facing features, the longwave radiation receipts at lower cliff sections

  4. Evaluating a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter snow cover data assimilation method to estimate SWE within a high-resolution hydrologic modeling framework across Western US mountainous regions (United States)

    Oaida, C. M.; Andreadis, K.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.


    Accurately estimating how much snow water equivalent (SWE) is stored in mountainous regions characterized by complex terrain and snowmelt-driven hydrologic cycles is not only greatly desirable, but also a big challenge. Mountain snowpack exhibits high spatial variability across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales due to a multitude of physical and climatic factors, making it difficult to observe or estimate in its entirety. Combing remotely sensed data and high resolution hydrologic modeling through data assimilation (DA) has the potential to provide a spatially and temporally continuous SWE dataset at horizontal scales that capture sub-grid snow spatial variability and are also relevant to stakeholders such as water resource managers. Here, we present the evaluation of a new snow DA approach that uses a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in tandem with the Variable Infiltration Capacity macro-scale hydrologic model across the Western United States, at a daily temporal resolution, and a horizontal resolution of 1.75 km x 1.75 km. The LETKF is chosen for its relative simplicity, ease of implementation, and computational efficiency and scalability. The modeling/DA system assimilates daily MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size (MODSCAG) fractional snow cover over, and has been developed to efficiently calculate SWE estimates over extended periods of time and covering large regional-scale areas at relatively high spatial resolution, ultimately producing a snow reanalysis-type dataset. Here we focus on the assessment of SWE produced by the DA scheme over several basins in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range where Airborne Snow Observatory data is available, during the last five water years (2013-2017), which include both one of the driest and one of the wettest years. Comparison against such a spatially distributed SWE observational product provides a greater understanding of the model's ability to estimate SWE and SWE spatial variability

  5. Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model


    Yeo, I.-Y.; Lee, S.; Sadeghi, A. M.; Beeson, P. C.; Hively, W. D.; McCarty, G. W.; Lang, M. W.


    Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality a...

  6. Capacitated set-covering model considering the distance objective and dependency of alternative facilities (United States)

    Wayan Suletra, I.; Priyandari, Yusuf; Jauhari, Wakhid A.


    We propose a new model of facility location to solve a kind of problem that belong to a class of set-covering problem using an integer programming formulation. Our model contains a single objective function, but it represents two goals. The first is to minimize the number of facilities, and the other is to minimize the total distance of customers to facilities. The first goal is a mandatory goal, and the second is an improvement goal that is very useful when alternate optimum solutions for the first goal exist. We use a big number as a weight on the first goal to force the solution algorithm to give first priority to the first goal. Besides considering capacity constraints, our model accommodates a kind of either-or constraints representing facilities dependency. The either-or constraints will prevent the solution algorithm to select two or more facilities from the same set of facility with mutually exclusive properties. A real location selection problem to locate a set of wastewater treatment facility (IPAL) in Surakarta city, Indonesia, will describe the implementation of our model. A numerical example is given using the data of that real problem.

  7. Development of an Improved Crack Propagation Model for Corrosion-Induced Cover Cracking in RC Structures (United States)

    Hilyati, S.; Nizam, Z. M.; Zurisman, M. A. A.; Azhar, A. T. S.


    During the last two decades, reinforced concrete (RC) has been extensively used in most of the world as one of the common construction material due to its advantages and durability. However, RC structures exposed to marine environments are subjected to chloride attack. Chlorides from seawater penetrate into RC structures are not only causing severe corrosion problems but also affect the durability and serviceability of such structures. This paper investigates the influence of transverse reinforcement and spacing of reinforcing bars on concrete cover cracking of two-way RC slab specimens using accelerated corrosion tests. The experimental program involved the testing of four RC slab specimens and was generally designed to observe the crack width and the time of crack to propagate. An improved model for predicting the timing of crack propagation based on the experimental data was then developed.


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    Land use/land cover (LULC) data are a vital component for nonpoint source pollution modeling. Most watershed hydrology and pollutant loading models use, in some capacity, LULC information to generate runoff and pollutant loading estimates. Simple equation methods predict runoff and pollutant loads using runoff coefficients or pollutant export coefficients that are often correlated to LULC type. Complex models use input variables and parameters to represent watershed characteristics and pollutant buildup and washoff rates as a function of LULC type. Whether using simple or complex models an accurate LULC dataset with an appropriate spatial resolution and level of detail is paramount for reliable predictions. The study presented in this paper compared and evaluated several LULC dataset sources for application in urban environmental modeling. The commonly used USGS LULC datasets have coarser spatial resolution and lower levels of classification than other LULC datasets. In addition, the USGS datasets do not accurately represent the land use in areas that have undergone significant land use change during the past two decades. We performed a watershed modeling analysis of three urban catchments in Los Angeles, California, USA to investigate the relative difference in average annual runoff volumes and total suspended solids (TSS) loads when using the USGS LULC dataset versus using a more detailed and current LULC dataset. When the two LULC datasets were aggregated to the same land use categories, the relative differences in predicted average annual runoff volumes and TSS loads from the three catchments were 8 to 14% and 13 to 40%, respectively. The relative differences did not have a predictable relationship with catchment size

  9. Advances in snow cover distributed modelling via ensemble simulations and assimilation of satellite data (United States)

    Revuelto, J.; Dumont, M.; Tuzet, F.; Vionnet, V.; Lafaysse, M.; Lecourt, G.; Vernay, M.; Morin, S.; Cosme, E.; Six, D.; Rabatel, A.


    Nowadays snowpack models show a good capability in simulating the evolution of snow in mountain areas. However singular deviations of meteorological forcing and shortcomings in the modelling of snow physical processes, when accumulated on time along a snow season, could produce large deviations from real snowpack state. The evaluation of these deviations is usually assessed with on-site observations from automatic weather stations. Nevertheless the location of these stations could strongly influence the results of these evaluations since local topography may have a marked influence on snowpack evolution. Despite the evaluation of snowpack models with automatic weather stations usually reveal good results, there exist a lack of large scale evaluations of simulations results on heterogeneous alpine terrain subjected to local topographic effects.This work firstly presents a complete evaluation of the detailed snowpack model Crocus over an extended mountain area, the Arve upper catchment (western European Alps). This catchment has a wide elevation range with a large area above 2000m a.s.l. and/or glaciated. The evaluation compares results obtained with distributed and semi-distributed simulations (the latter nowadays used on the operational forecasting). Daily observations of the snow covered area from MODIS satellite sensor, seasonal glacier surface mass balance evolution measured in more than 65 locations and the galciers annual equilibrium line altitude from Landsat/Spot/Aster satellites, have been used for model evaluation. Additionally the latest advances in producing ensemble snowpack simulations for assimilating satellite reflectance data over extended areas will be presented. These advances comprises the generation of an ensemble of downscaled high-resolution meteorological forcing from meso-scale meteorological models and the application of a particle filter scheme for assimilating satellite observations. Despite the results are prefatory, they show a good

  10. Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States (United States)

    Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.


    A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario

  11. Modeling the influence of snow cover on low Arctic net ecosystem exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luus, K A; Kelly, R E J; Lin, J C; Humphreys, E R; Lafleur, P M; Oechel, W C


    The Arctic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between the land surface and the atmosphere is influenced by the timing of snow onset and melt. The objective of this study was to examine whether uncertainty in model estimates of NEE could be reduced by representing the influence of snow on NEE using remote sensing observations of snow cover area (SCA). Observations of NEE and time-lapse images of SCA were collected over four locations at a low Arctic site (Daring Lake, NWT) in May–June 2010. Analysis of these observations indicated that SCA influences NEE, and that good agreement exists between SCA derived from time-lapse images, Landsat and MODIS. MODIS SCA was therefore incorporated into the vegetation photosynthesis respiration model (VPRM). VPRM was calibrated using observations collected in 2005 at Daring Lake. Estimates of NEE were then generated over Daring Lake and Ivotuk, Alaska (2004–2007) using VPRM formulations with and without explicit representations of the influence of SCA on respiration and/or photosynthesis. Model performance was assessed by comparing VPRM output against unfilled eddy covariance observations from Daring Lake and Ivotuk (2004–2007). The uncertainty in VPRM estimates of NEE was reduced when respiration was estimated as a function of air temperature when SCA ≤ 50% and as a function of soil temperature when SCA > 50%. (letter)

  12. Numerical modelling of methane oxidation efficiency and coupled water-gas-heat reactive transfer in a sloping landfill cover. (United States)

    Feng, S; Ng, C W W; Leung, A K; Liu, H W


    Microbial aerobic methane oxidation in unsaturated landfill cover involves coupled water, gas and heat reactive transfer. The coupled process is complex and its influence on methane oxidation efficiency is not clear, especially in steep covers where spatial variations of water, gas and heat are significant. In this study, two-dimensional finite element numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the performance of unsaturated sloping cover. The numerical model was calibrated using a set of flume model test data, and was then subsequently used for parametric study. A new method that considers transient changes of methane concentration during the estimation of the methane oxidation efficiency was proposed and compared against existing methods. It was found that a steeper cover had a lower oxidation efficiency due to enhanced downslope water flow, during which desaturation of soil promoted gas transport and hence landfill gas emission. This effect was magnified as the cover angle and landfill gas generation rate at the bottom of the cover increased. Assuming the steady-state methane concentration in a cover would result in a non-conservative overestimation of oxidation efficiency, especially when a steep cover was subjected to rainfall infiltration. By considering the transient methane concentration, the newly-modified method can give a more accurate oxidation efficiency. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers (United States)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca


    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of evolution emerge: (i) reclining cliffs that flatten during the ablation season; (ii) stable cliffs that maintain a self-similar geometry; and (iii) growing cliffs, expanding laterally. We use the insights from this unique data set to develop a 3-D model of cliff backwasting and evolution that is validated against observations and an independent data set of volume losses. The model includes ablation at the cliff surface driven by energy exchange with the atmosphere, reburial of cliff cells by surrounding debris, and the effect of adjacent ponds. The cliff geometry is updated monthly to account for the modifications induced by each of those processes. Model results indicate that a major factor affecting the survival of steep cliffs is the coupling with ponded water at its base, which prevents progressive flattening and possible disappearance of a cliff. The radial growth observed at one cliff is explained by higher receipts of longwave and shortwave radiation, calculated taking into account atmospheric fluxes, shading, and the emission of longwave radiation from debris surfaces. The model is a clear step forward compared to existing static approaches that calculate atmospheric melt over an invariant cliff geometry and can be used for long-term simulations of cliff evolution and to test existing hypotheses about cliffs' survival.

  14. A broad model for demand forecasting of gasoline and fuel alcohol; Um modelo abrangente para a projecao das demandas de gasolina e alcool carburante

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buonfiglio, Antonio [PETROBRAS, Paulinia, SP (Brazil). Dept. Industrial; Bajay, Sergio Valdir [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica


    Formulating a broad, mixed: econometric/end-use, demand forecasting model for gasoline and fuel alcohol is the main objective of this work. In the model, the gasoline and hydrated alcohol demands are calculated as the corresponding products if their fleet by the average car mileage, divided by the average specific mileage. Several simulations with the proposed forecasting model are carried out, within the context of alternative scenarios for the development of these competing fuels in the Brazilian market. (author) 4 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

  15. Changes in snow cover over China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Ying; Gao Xuejie; Wu Jia; Giorgi, Filippo


    On the basis of the climate change simulations conducted using a high resolution regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, at 25 km grid spacing, future changes in snow cover over China are analyzed. The simulations are carried out for the period of 1951–2100 following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The results suggest good performances of the model in simulating the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, as well as the starting and ending dates of snow cover to the present day (1981–2000). Their spatial distributions and amounts show fair consistency between the simulation and observation, although with some discrepancies. In general, decreases in the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, together with postponed snow starting dates and advanced snow ending dates, are simulated for the future, except in some places where the opposite appears. The most dramatic changes are found over the Tibetan Plateau among the three major snow cover areas of Northeast, Northwest and the Tibetan Plateau in China.

  16. Land-Cover Change Analysis and Simulation in Conakry (Guinea, Using Hybrid Cellular-Automata and Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arafan Traore


    Full Text Available In this study, land-cover change in the capital Conakry of Guinea was simulated using the integrated Cellular Automata and Markov model (CA-Markov in the Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Historical land-cover change information was derived from 1986, 2000 and 2016 Landsat data. Using the land-cover change maps of 1986 and 2000, the land-cover change map for 2016 was simulated based on the Markov model in IDRISSI software (Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA. The simulated result was compared with the 2016 land-cover map for validation using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC. The ROC result showed a very strong agreement between the two maps. From this result, the land-cover change map for 2025 was simulated using CA-Markov model. The result has indicated that the proportion of the urban area was 49% in 2016, and it is expected to increase to 52% by 2025, while vegetation will decrease from 35% in 2016 to 32% in 2025. This study suggests that the rapid land-cover change has been led by both rapid population growth and extreme poverty in rural areas, which will result in migration into Conakry. The results of this study will provide bases for assessing the sustainability and the management of the urban area and for taking actions to mitigate the degradation of the urban environment.

  17. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman


    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  18. Modelling the Effects of Temperature and Cloud Cover Change on Mountain Permafrost Distribution, Northwest Canada (United States)

    Bonnaventure, P. P.; Lewkowicz, A. G.


    Spatial models of permafrost probability for three study areas in northwest Canada between 59°N and 61°N were perturbed to investigate climate change impacts. The models are empirical-statistical in nature, based on basal temperature of snow (BTS) measurements in winter, and summer ground-truthing of the presence or absence of frozen ground. Predictions of BTS values are made using independent variables of elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), both derived from a 30 m DEM. These are then transformed into the probability of the presence or absence of permafrost through logistic regression. Under present climate conditions, permafrost percentages in the study areas are 44% for Haines Summit, British Columbia, 38% for Wolf Creek, Yukon, and 69% for part of the Ruby Range, Yukon (Bonnaventure and Lewkowicz, 2008; Lewkowicz and Bonaventure, 2008). Scenarios of air temperature change from -2K (approximating Neoglacial conditions) to +5K (possible within the next century according to the IPCC) were examined for the three sites. Manipulations were carried out by lowering or raising the terrain within the DEM assuming a mean environmental lapse rate of 6.5K/km. Under a -2K scenario, permafrost extent increased by 22-43% in the three study areas. Under a +5K warming, permafrost essentially disappeared in Haines Summit and Wolf Creek, while in the Ruby Range less than 12% of the area remained perennially frozen. It should be emphasized that these model predictions are for equilibrium conditions which might not be attained for several decades or longer in areas of cold permafrost. Cloud cover changes of -10% to +10% were examined through adjusting the partitioning of direct beam and diffuse radiation in the PISR input field. Changes to permafrost extent were small, ranging from -2% to -4% for greater cloudiness with changes of the opposite magnitude for less cloud. The results show that air temperature change has a much greater potential to affect mountain

  19. A broad scope knowledge based model for optimization of VMAT in esophageal cancer: validation and assessment of plan quality among different treatment centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogliata, Antonella; Nicolini, Giorgia; Clivio, Alessandro; Vanetti, Eugenio; Laksar, Sarbani; Tozzi, Angelo; Scorsetti, Marta; Cozzi, Luca


    To evaluate the performance of a broad scope model-based optimisation process for volumetric modulated arc therapy applied to esophageal cancer. A set of 70 previously treated patients in two different institutions, were selected to train a model for the prediction of dose-volume constraints. The model was built with a broad-scope purpose, aiming to be effective for different dose prescriptions and tumour localisations. It was validated on three groups of patients from the same institution and from another clinic not providing patients for the training phase. Comparison of the automated plans was done against reference cases given by the clinically accepted plans. Quantitative improvements (statistically significant for the majority of the analysed dose-volume parameters) were observed between the benchmark and the test plans. Of 624 dose-volume objectives assessed for plan evaluation, in 21 cases (3.3 %) the reference plans failed to respect the constraints while the model-based plans succeeded. Only in 3 cases (<0.5 %) the reference plans passed the criteria while the model-based failed. In 5.3 % of the cases both groups of plans failed and in the remaining cases both passed the tests. Plans were optimised using a broad scope knowledge-based model to determine the dose-volume constraints. The results showed dosimetric improvements when compared to the benchmark data. Particularly the plans optimised for patients from the third centre, not participating to the training, resulted in superior quality. The data suggests that the new engine is reliable and could encourage its application to clinical practice. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13014-015-0530-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

  20. A simple model for predicting soil temperature in snow-covered and seasonally frozen soil: model description and testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rankinen


    Full Text Available Microbial processes in soil are moisture, nutrient and temperature dependent and, consequently, accurate calculation of soil temperature is important for modelling nitrogen processes. Microbial activity in soil occurs even at sub-zero temperatures so that, in northern latitudes, a method to calculate soil temperature under snow cover and in frozen soils is required. This paper describes a new and simple model to calculate daily values for soil temperature at various depths in both frozen and unfrozen soils. The model requires four parameters: average soil thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity of soil, specific heat capacity due to freezing and thawing and an empirical snow parameter. Precipitation, air temperature and snow depth (measured or calculated are needed as input variables. The proposed model was applied to five sites in different parts of Finland representing different climates and soil types. Observed soil temperatures at depths of 20 and 50 cm (September 1981–August 1990 were used for model calibration. The calibrated model was then tested using observed soil temperatures from September 1990 to August 2001. R2-values of the calibration period varied between 0.87 and 0.96 at a depth of 20 cm and between 0.78 and 0.97 at 50 cm. R2-values of the testing period were between 0.87 and 0.94 at a depth of 20cm, and between 0.80 and 0.98 at 50cm. Thus, despite the simplifications made, the model was able to simulate soil temperature at these study sites. This simple model simulates soil temperature well in the uppermost soil layers where most of the nitrogen processes occur. The small number of parameters required means that the model is suitable for addition to catchment scale models. Keywords: soil temperature, snow model

  1. Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty (United States)

    Jan Seibert; Jeffrey J. McDonnell


    The effect of land-use or land-cover change on stream runoff dynamics is not fully understood. In many parts of the world, forest management is the major land-cover change agent. While the paired catchment approach has been the primary methodology used to quantify such effects, it is only possible for small headwater catchments where there is uniformity in...

  2. The Parana paradox: can a model explain the decadal impacts of climate variability and land-cover change? (United States)

    Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Livino, A.; Briscoe, J.


    Since the 1970s, despite a decrease in rainfall, flow in the Parana river has increased. This paradox is explored using the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. If there were no change in land cover, the modeled runoff decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s by 11.8% (with 1970 land cover) or 18.8% (with 2008 land cover). When the model is run holding climate constant, the decadal average of the modeled runoff increased by 24.4% (with the 1970s climate) or by 33.6% (with 2000s climate). When the model is run allowing both the actual climate and land-cover changes, the model gives an increase in the decadal average of runoff by 8.5%. This agrees well with 10.5% increase in the actual stream flow as measured at Itaipu. There are three main conclusions from this work. First, the ED model is able to explain a major, paradoxical, reality in the Parana basin. Second, it is necessary to take into account both climate and land use changes when exploring past or future changes in river flows. Third, the ED model, now coupled with a regional climate model (i.e., EDBRAMS), is a sound basis for exploring likely changes in river flows in major South American rivers.

  3. The 2010 Broad Prize (United States)

    Education Digest: Essential Readings Condensed for Quick Review, 2011


    A new data analysis, based on data collected as part of The Broad Prize process, provides insights into which large urban school districts in the United States are doing the best job of educating traditionally disadvantaged groups: African-American, Hispanics, and low-income students. Since 2002, The Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation has awarded The…

  4. Modelling suicide and unemployment: a longitudinal analysis covering 63 countries, 2000-11. (United States)

    Nordt, Carlos; Warnke, Ingeborg; Seifritz, Erich; Kawohl, Wolfram


    As with previous economic downturns, there has been debate about an association between the 2008 economic crisis, rising unemployment, and suicide. Unemployment directly affects individuals' health and, unsurprisingly, studies have proposed an association between unemployment and suicide. However, a statistical model examining the relationship between unemployment and suicide by considering specific time trends among age-sex-country subgroups over wider world regions is still lacking. We aimed to enhance knowledge of the specific effect of unemployment on suicide by analysing global public data classified according to world regions. We retrospectively analysed public data for suicide, population, and economy from the WHO mortality database and the International Monetary Fund's world economic outlook database from 2000 to 2011. We selected 63 countries based on sample size and completeness of the respective data and extracted the information about four age groups and sex. To check stability of findings, we conducted an overall random coefficient model including all study countries and four additional models, each covering a different world region. Despite differences in the four world regions, the overall model, adjusted for the unemployment rate, showed that the annual relative risk of suicide decreased by 1·1% (95% CI 0·8-1·4) per year between 2000 and 2011. The best and most stable final model indicated that a higher suicide rate preceded a rise in unemployment (lagged by 6 months) and that the effect was non-linear with higher effects for lower baseline unemployment rates. In all world regions, the relative risk of suicide associated with unemployment was elevated by about 20-30% during the study period. Overall, 41,148 (95% CI 39,552-42,744) suicides were associated with unemployment in 2007 and 46,131 (44,292-47,970) in 2009, indicating 4983 excess suicides since the economic crisis in 2008. Suicides associated with unemployment totalled a nine-fold higher

  5. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000 (United States)

    Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong


    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire

  6. Exploring the origin of broad-band emissions of Mrk 501 with a two-zone model (United States)

    Lei, Maichang; Yang, Chuyuan; Wang, Jiancheng; Yang, Xiaolin


    We propose a two-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model, including an inner gamma-ray emitting region with spherical shape and a conical radio emitting region located at the extended jet, to alleviate the long-standing "bulk Lorentz factor crisis" in blazars. In this model, the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of blazars are produced by considering the gamma-ray emitting region inverse Compton scattering of both the synchrotron photons itself and the ambient photons from the radio emitting region. Applying the model to Mrk 501, we obtain that the radio emitting region has a comoving length of ˜0.15 pc and is located at sub-parsec scale from the central engine by modeling the radio data; the flux of the Compton scattering of the ambient photons is so low that it can be neglected safely. The characteristic hard gamma-ray spectrum can be explained by the superposition of two SSC processes, and the model can approximately explain the very high energy (VHE) data. The insights into the spectral shape and the inter-band correlations under the flaring state will provide us with a diagnostic for the bulk Lorentz factor of radio emitting region, where the low and upper limits of 8 and 15 are preferred, and for the two-zone SSC model itself. In addition, our two-zone SSC model shows that the gamma-ray emitting region creates flare on the timescale of merely a few hours, and the long time outbursts more likely originate from the extended radio emitting region.

  7. Using Urban Landscape Trajectories to Develop a Multi-Temporal Land Cover Database to Support Ecological Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Alberti


    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting changes in land cover have myriad impacts on ecological systems. Monitoring these changes across large spatial extents and long time spans requires synoptic remotely sensed data with an appropriate temporal sequence. We developed a multi-temporal land cover dataset for a six-county area surrounding the Seattle, Washington State, USA, metropolitan region. Land cover maps for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were developed from Landsat TM images through a combination of spectral unmixing, image segmentation, multi-season imagery, and supervised classification approaches to differentiate an initial nine land cover classes. We then used ancillary GIS layers and temporal information to define trajectories of land cover change through multiple updating and backdating rules and refined our land cover classification for each date into 14 classes. We compared the accuracy of the initial approach with the landscape trajectory modifications and determined that the use of landscape trajectory rules increased our ability to differentiate several classes including bare soil (separated into cleared for development, agriculture, and clearcut forest and three intensities of urban. Using the temporal dataset, we found that between 1986 and 2002, urban land cover increased from 8 to 18% of our study area, while lowland deciduous and mixed forests decreased from 21 to 14%, and grass and agriculture decreased from 11 to 8%. The intensity of urban land cover increased with 252 km2 in Heavy Urban in 1986 increasing to 629 km2 by 2002. The ecological systems that are present in this region were likely significantly altered by these changes in land cover. Our results suggest that multi-temporal (i.e., multiple years and multiple seasons within years Landsat data are an economical means to quantify land cover and land cover change across large and highly heterogeneous urbanizing landscapes. Our data, and similar temporal land cover change

  8. Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model (United States)

    Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.


    Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

  9. Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid SWAT Hydrologic Modeling (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Bolten, J. D.; Srinivasan, R.


    This presentation discusses research to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Funded by a NASA ROSES Disasters grant, the main objective was to produce updated LULC maps to aid the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. In producing needed LULC maps, temporally processed MODIS monthly NDVI data for 2010 were used as the primary data source for classifying regionally prominent forest and agricultural types. The MODIS NDVI data was derived from processing MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data with the Time Series Product Tool, a custom software package. Circa 2010 Landsat multispectral data from the dry season were processed into top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics and then classified to derive certain locally common LULC types, such as urban areas and industrial forest plantations. Unsupervised ISODATA clustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. GIS techniques were used to merge MODIS and Landsat classifications into final LULC maps for Sub-Basins (SBs) 1-8 of the LMB. The final LULC maps were produced at 250-meter resolution and delivered to the MRC for use in SWAT modeling for the LMB. A map accuracy assessment was performed for the SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes. This assessment was performed by comparing random locations for sampled LULC types to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs, MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data from Google Map/Earth, and other reference data from the MRC (e.g., crop calendars). LULC accuracy assessment results for SB 7 indicated an overall agreement to reference data of 81% at full scheme specificity. However, by grouping 3 deciduous forest classes into 1 class, the overall agreement improved to 87%. The project enabled updated LULC maps, plus more specific rice types were classified compared to the previous LULC maps. The LULC maps from this project should improve the use of SWAT for modeling

  10. Airborne laser scanning terrain and land cover models as basis for hydrological and hydraulic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, M.


    point cloud. Because of the interaction of the laser signal at a specific wavelength and the water surface, the capability to identify areas containing water is very high. These water surface areas are used for land cover classification or generating proper geometry data for hydrodynamic-numerical models. The extent of the water surface is used to replace the water surface with river bed geometry or for hydraulic friction parameter allocation. Based on the water surface extent a river bed modeling method is presented in the next chapter. By combining the existing water surface with terrestrially measured cross section data, a river bed model is created, which is finally integrated into the existing DTM. The main aim of this chapter is to create a DTM of the watercourse, including the river bed model, which can be used as basis for hydrodynamic-numerical modeling and for change detection between two major flood events. The advantage of the DTM with an integrated river bed is that the relevant elevation data of the flood plains are used from the dense and accurate original DTM and the river bed is an interpolated DTM from cross sections. If the distance between the cross sections is large, the river bed model is of poor quality, because of the linear interpolation of the cross sections. In the final methodological part a point cloud based method for estimating hydraulic roughness coefficients is presented. Based on the geometry of the 3D point cloud, vertical structures of the vegetation are analyzed and classified into different land cover classes, which are transformed to Manning's n values. The advantages of the presented method are that the data analysis is fully automatic, reproducible and fast. Finally, the geometry used as elevation input for a 2D hydrodynamic-numerical model and the roughness parameters are measured at one single point in time and calculated from the same data source. Therefore, it is possible to create a hydrodynamic-numerical model exactly

  11. Mathematical modelling of water and gas transport in layered soil covers for coal ash deposit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindgren, M [Kemakta Consultants Co, Stockholm (SE); Rasmuson, A [Chalmers University of Technology, Goeteborg (SE). Dept. of Chemical Engineering Design


    In phase 1 of this study the design of soil covers for deposits of coal ash from energy production was studied with regard to various parameters like: climate, cover slope, hydraulic conductivity of tight layer and length of cover. One of the main results was the relatively large risk for total saturation up to the surface and overflow which may cause surface erosion problems. In the present study two theoretical cases are studied to further elucidate the problem. A case from the phase 1 study is used to illustrate the effect of increased infiltration. Calculations show that total saturation and thereby overflow is achieved when the infiltration is increased by 20% in March, but not when increased by 10% only. This shows that the margin in an acceptable case may be small. A cover treated in phase 1, where totally saturated conditions were obtained, was modified so that two decimeters of the one meter till in its bottom part were exchanged for a drainage layer. It is shown that the effect of this layer is large. A negative side-effect, however, is that gas flow may increase due to the lower saturation of the cover. Calculations were made for a real soil covered mine tailings deposit at Bersbo. This deposit was chosen mainly because it is the only well documented case in Sweden where soil covers are used for securing a deposit, but also because some contradictory results as compared to theory were obtained. Another topic studied in the present work was the influence of a heterogeneous clay layer. For example, a weak zone with a hydraulic conductivity of 10{sup -7} m/s (10{sup -9} m/s for the rest of the clay), covering 0.5 m x 0.5 m of 10 m in length and 5 m in width, will increase the flow through the bottom of the cover with almost 30%. The gas transport through the heterogeneous soil cover was also studied, showing about 5 times increased gas transport rate around the weak zone, but almost no difference about 1 m from the weak zone. (29 figs., 5 tabs., 27 refs.).

  12. Is the Factor-of-2 Rule Broadly Applicable for Evaluating the Prediction Accuracy of Metal-Toxicity Models? (United States)

    Meyer, Joseph S; Traudt, Elizabeth M; Ranville, James F


    In aquatic toxicology, a toxicity-prediction model is generally deemed acceptable if its predicted median lethal concentrations (LC50 values) or median effect concentrations (EC50 values) are within a factor of 2 of their paired, observed LC50 or EC50 values. However, that rule of thumb is based on results from only two studies: multiple LC50 values for the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposed to Cu in one type of exposure water, and multiple EC50 values for Daphnia magna exposed to Zn in another type of exposure water. We tested whether the factor-of-2 rule of thumb also is supported in a different dataset in which D. magna were exposed separately to Cd, Cu, Ni, or Zn. Overall, the factor-of-2 rule of thumb appeared to be a good guide to evaluating the acceptability of a toxicity model's underprediction or overprediction of observed LC50 or EC50 values in these acute toxicity tests.

  13. Investigating the impact of land cover change on peak river flow in UK upland peat catchments, based on modelled scenarios (United States)

    Gao, Jihui; Holden, Joseph; Kirkby, Mike


    Changes to land cover can influence the velocity of overland flow. In headwater peatlands, saturation means that overland flow is a dominant source of runoff, particularly during heavy rainfall events. Human modifications in headwater peatlands may include removal of vegetation (e.g. by erosion processes, fire, pollution, overgrazing) or pro-active revegetation of peat with sedges such as Eriophorum or mosses such as Sphagnum. How these modifications affect the river flow, and in particular the flood peak, in headwater peatlands is a key problem for land management. In particular, the impact of the spatial distribution of land cover change (e.g. different locations and sizes of land cover change area) on river flow is not clear. In this presentation a new fully distributed version of TOPMODEL, which represents the effects of distributed land cover change on river discharge, was employed to investigate land cover change impacts in three UK upland peat catchments (Trout Beck in the North Pennines, the Wye in mid-Wales and the East Dart in southwest England). Land cover scenarios with three typical land covers (i.e. Eriophorum, Sphagnum and bare peat) having different surface roughness in upland peatlands were designed for these catchments to investigate land cover impacts on river flow through simulation runs of the distributed model. As a result of hypothesis testing three land cover principles emerged from the work as follows: Principle (1): Well vegetated buffer strips are important for reducing flow peaks. A wider bare peat strip nearer to the river channel gives a higher flow peak and reduces the delay to peak; conversely, a wider buffer strip with higher density vegetation (e.g. Sphagnum) leads to a lower peak and postpones the peak. In both cases, a narrower buffer strip surrounding upstream and downstream channels has a greater effect than a thicker buffer strip just based around the downstream river network. Principle (2): When the area of change is equal

  14. Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) (United States)

    Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.


    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

  15. Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios (United States)

    Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Schoellhamer, David H.


    In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta—where SLR may be attenuated—and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future

  16. Developments in modelling the effect of aerosol on the thermal performance of the Fast Reactor cover gas space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, I.J.; Clement, C.F.


    The sodium aerosol which forms in the cover gas space of a Fast Reactor couples the processes of heat and mass transfer to and from the bounding surfaces and affects the thermal performance of the cavity. This report describes extensions to previously separate models of heat transfer and aerosol formation and removal in the cover gas space, and the linking of the two calculations in a consistent manner. The extensions made to the theories include thermophoretic aerosol removal, radiative-driven redistribution in aerosol sizes, and the side-wall influence on the bulk cavity temperature. The link between aerosol properties and boundary layer saturations is also examined, especially in the far-from-saturated limit. The models can be used in the interpretation of cover gas space experiments and some example calculations are given. (author)

  17. [Advance in researches on vegetation cover and management factor in the soil erosion prediction model]. (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Jianping; Liu, Baoyuan


    Vegetation cover and land management are the main limiting factors of soil erosion, and quantitative evaluation on the effect of different vegetation on soil erosion is essential to land use and soil conservation planning. The vegetation cover and management factor (C) in the universal soil loss equation (USLE) is an index to evaluate this effect, which has been studied deeply and used widely. However, the C factor study is insufficient in China. In order to strengthen the research of C factor, this paper reviewed the developing progress of C factor, and compared the methods of estimating C value in different USLE versions. The relative studies in China were also summarized from the aspects of vegetation canopy coverage, soil surface cover, and root density. Three problems in C factor study were pointed out. The authors suggested that cropland C factor research should be furthered, and its methodology should be unified in China to represent reliable C values for soil loss prediction and conservation planning.

  18. Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44: Lessons Learned from a Model Whole-Cell Bioreporter with a Broad Application History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary S. Sayler


    Full Text Available Initially described in 1990, Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 served as the first whole-cell bioreporter genetically endowed with a bioluminescent (luxCDABE phenotype directly linked to a catabolic (naphthalene degradative pathway. HK44 was the first genetically engineered microorganism to be released in the field to monitor bioremediation potential. Subsequent to that release, strain HK44 had been introduced into other solids (soils, sands, liquid (water, wastewater, and volatile environments. In these matrices, it has functioned as one of the best characterized chemically-responsive environmental bioreporters and as a model organism for understanding bacterial colonization and transport, cell immobilization strategies, and the kinetics of cellular bioluminescent emission. This review summarizes the characteristics of P. fluorescens HK44 and the extensive range of its applications with special focus on the monitoring of bioremediation processes and biosensing of environmental pollution.

  19. Literature review of models for estimating soil erosion and deposition from wind stresses on uranium-mill-tailings covers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bander, T.J.


    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is investigating the use of a rock armoring blanket (riprap) to mitigate wind and water erosion of an earthen radon-suppression cover applied to uranium-mill tailings. The mechanics of wind erosion, as well as of soil deposition, are discussed in this report. Several wind erosion models are reviewed to determine if they can be used to estimate the erosion of soil from a mill-tailings cover. One model, developed by W.S. Chepil, contains the most-important factors that describe variables that influence wind erosion. Particular features of other models are also discussed, as well as the application of Chepil's model to a particular tailings pile. For this particular tailings pile, the estimated erosion was almost one inch per year for an unprotected tailings soil surface. Wide variability in the deposition velocity and lack of adequate deposition models preclude reliable estimates of the rate at which airborne particles are deposited.

  20. Literature review of models for estimating soil erosion and deposition from wind stresses on uranium-mill-tailings covers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bander, T.J.


    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is investigating the use of a rock armoring blanket (riprap) to mitigate wind and water erosion of an earthen radon-suppression cover applied to uranium-mill tailings. The mechanics of wind erosion, as well as of soil deposition, are discussed in this report. Several wind erosion models are reviewed to determine if they can be used to estimate the erosion of soil from a mill-tailings cover. One model, developed by W.S. Chepil, contains the most-important factors that describe variables that influence wind erosion. Particular features of other models are also discussed, as well as the application of Chepil's model to a particular tailings pile. For this particular tailings pile, the estimated erosion was almost one inch per year for an unprotected tailings soil surface. Wide variability in the deposition velocity and lack of adequate deposition models preclude reliable estimates of the rate at which airborne particles are deposited

  1. Land Cover (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Land Cover database depicts 10 general land cover classes for the State of Kansas. The database was compiled from a digital classification of Landsat Thematic...

  2. [Parameter optimization of BEPS model based on the flux data of the temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest in Northeast China. (United States)

    Lu, Wei; Fan, Wen Yi; Tian, Tian


    Keeping other parameters as empirical constants, different numerical combinations of the main photosynthetic parameters V c max and J max were conducted to estimate daily GPP by using the iteration method in this paper. To optimize V c max and J max in BEPSHourly model at hourly time steps, simulated daily GPP using different numerical combinations of the parameters were compared with the flux tower data obtained from the temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest of the Maoershan Forest Farm in Northeast China. Comparing the simulated daily GPP with the observed flux data in 2011, the results showed that optimal V c max and J max for the deciduous broad-leaved forest in Northeast China were 41.1 μmol·m -2 ·s -1 and 82.8 μmol·m -2 ·s -1 respectively with the minimal RMSE and the maximum R 2 of 1.10 g C·m -2 ·d -1 and 0.95. After V c max and J max optimization, BEPSHourly model simulated the seasonal variation of GPP better.

  3. Computational modelling of the cerebral cortical microvasculature: effect of x-ray microbeams versus broad beam irradiation (United States)

    Merrem, A.; Bartzsch, S.; Laissue, J.; Oelfke, U.


    Microbeam Radiation Therapy is an innovative pre-clinical strategy which uses arrays of parallel, tens of micrometres wide kilo-voltage photon beams to treat tumours. These x-ray beams are typically generated on a synchrotron source. It was shown that these beam geometries allow exceptional normal tissue sparing from radiation damage while still being effective in tumour ablation. A final biological explanation for this enhanced therapeutic ratio has still not been found, some experimental data support an important role of the vasculature. In this work, the effect of microbeams on a normal microvascular network of the cerebral cortex was assessed in computer simulations and compared to the effect of homogeneous, seamless exposures at equal energy absorption. The anatomy of a cerebral microvascular network and the inflicted radiation damage were simulated to closely mimic experimental data using a novel probabilistic model of radiation damage to blood vessels. It was found that the spatial dose fractionation by microbeam arrays significantly decreased the vascular damage. The higher the peak-to-valley dose ratio, the more pronounced the sparing effect. Simulations of the radiation damage as a function of morphological parameters of the vascular network demonstrated that the distribution of blood vessel radii is a key parameter determining both the overall radiation damage of the vasculature and the dose-dependent differential effect of microbeam irradiation.

  4. Universal or Specific? A Modeling-Based Comparison of Broad-Spectrum Influenza Vaccines against Conventional, Strain-Matched Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Subramanian


    Full Text Available Despite the availability of vaccines, influenza remains a major public health challenge. A key reason is the virus capacity for immune escape: ongoing evolution allows the continual circulation of seasonal influenza, while novel influenza viruses invade the human population to cause a pandemic every few decades. Current vaccines have to be updated continually to keep up to date with this antigenic change, but emerging 'universal' vaccines-targeting more conserved components of the influenza virus-offer the potential to act across all influenza A strains and subtypes. Influenza vaccination programmes around the world are steadily increasing in their population coverage. In future, how might intensive, routine immunization with novel vaccines compare against similar mass programmes utilizing conventional vaccines? Specifically, how might novel and conventional vaccines compare, in terms of cumulative incidence and rates of antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza? What are their potential implications for the impact of pandemic emergence? Here we present a new mathematical model, capturing both transmission dynamics and antigenic evolution of influenza in a simple framework, to explore these questions. We find that, even when matched by per-dose efficacy, universal vaccines could dampen population-level transmission over several seasons to a greater extent than conventional vaccines. Moreover, by lowering opportunities for cross-protective immunity in the population, conventional vaccines could allow the increased spread of a novel pandemic strain. Conversely, universal vaccines could mitigate both seasonal and pandemic spread. However, where it is not possible to maintain annual, intensive vaccination coverage, the duration and breadth of immunity raised by universal vaccines are critical determinants of their performance relative to conventional vaccines. In future, conventional and novel vaccines are likely to play complementary roles in

  5. Optimal land use/land cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modeling in a Himalayan watersched

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.


    Land use/land cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division

  6. Optimal land use/cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modelling in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sameer Saran,; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.


    Land use/cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division into

  7. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.


    This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated

  8. Biomedical implications from a morphoelastic continuum model for the simulation of contracture formation in skin grafts that cover excised burns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppenol, D.C.; Vermolen, F.J.


    A continuum hypothesis-based model is developed for the simulation of the (long term) contraction of skin grafts that cover excised burns in order to obtain suggestions regarding the ideal length of splinting therapy and when to start with this therapy such that the therapy is effective

  9. Modelling soil moisture under different land covers in a sub-humid ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in the sub-humid climate within the Western Ghats, Karnataka, India. ... carried out with respect to the water-holding capacity of the soils with the aim of explaining ... changes have taken place in the land-use/cover of ... about 20–25 km inland.

  10. Simplified Analytical Model of a Covered Burr-Arch-Truss Timber Bridge (United States)

    F. Fanous; D. Rammer; T. Wipf


    Due to the importance of historical timber covered bridges throughout history, their preservation is necessary. However, conducting an accurate structural evaluation of these types of bridges has always caused difficulties to bridge engineers. This paper summarizes an investigation that was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration and the USDA Forest Products...

  11. Car Covers | Outdoor Covers Canada


    Covers, Outdoor


    Protect your car from the elements with Ultimate Touch Car Cover. The multi-layer non-woven fabric is soft on the finish and offers 4 seasons all weather protection.

  12. Airborne laser scanning terrain and land cover models as basis for hydrological and hydraulic studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vetter, M.


    point cloud. Because of the interaction of the laser signal at a specific wavelength and the water surface, the capability to identify areas containing water is very high. These water surface areas are used for land cover classification or generating proper geometry data for hydrodynamic-numerical models. The extent of the water surface is used to replace the water surface with river bed geometry or for hydraulic friction parameter allocation. Based on the water surface extent a river bed modeling method is presented in the next chapter. By combining the existing water surface with terrestrially measured cross section data, a river bed model is created, which is finally integrated into the existing DTM. The main aim of this chapter is to create a DTM of the watercourse, including the river bed model, which can be used as basis for hydrodynamic-numerical modeling and for change detection between two major flood events. The advantage of the DTM with an integrated river bed is that the relevant elevation data of the flood plains are used from the dense and accurate original DTM and the river bed is an interpolated DTM from cross sections. If the distance between the cross sections is large, the river bed model is of poor quality, because of the linear interpolation of the cross sections. In the final methodological part a point cloud based method for estimating hydraulic roughness coefficients is presented. Based on the geometry of the 3D point cloud, vertical structures of the vegetation are analyzed and classified into different land cover classes, which are transformed to Manning's n values. The advantages of the presented method are that the data analysis is fully automatic, reproducible and fast. Finally, the geometry used as elevation input for a 2D hydrodynamic-numerical model and the roughness parameters are measured at one single point in time and calculated from the same data source. Therefore, it is possible to create a hydrodynamic-numerical model exactly from

  13. Modelling the effects of land cover and climate change on soil water partitioning in a boreal headwater catchment (United States)

    Wang, Hailong; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris


    Climate and land cover are two major factors affecting the water fluxes and balance across spatiotemporal scales. These two factors and their impacts on hydrology are often interlinked. The quantification and differentiation of such impacts is important for developing sustainable land and water management strategies. Here, we calibrated the well-known Hydrus-1D model in a data-rich boreal headwater catchment in Scotland to assess the role of two dominant vegetation types (shrubs vs. trees) in regulating the soil water partitioning and balance. We also applied previously established climate projections for the area and replaced shrubs with trees to imitate current land use change proposals in the region, so as to quantify the potential impacts of climate and land cover changes on soil hydrology. Under tree cover, evapotranspiration and deep percolation to recharge groundwater was about 44% and 57% of annual precipitation, whilst they were about 10% lower and 9% higher respectively under shrub cover in this humid, low energy environment. Meanwhile, tree canopies intercepted 39% of annual precipitation in comparison to 23% by shrubs. Soils with shrub cover stored more water than tree cover. Land cover change was shown to have stronger impacts than projected climate change. With a complete replacement of shrubs with trees under future climate projections at this site, evapotranspiration is expected to increase by ∼39% while percolation to decrease by 21% relative to the current level, more pronounced than the modest changes in the two components (seasons, which may result in water stress experienced by the vegetation. The findings provide an important evidence base for adaptive management strategies of future changes in low-energy humid environments, where vegetation growth is usually restricted by radiative energy and not water availability while few studies that quantify soil water partitioning exist.

  14. Optimized broad-histogram simulations for strong first-order phase transitions: droplet transitions in the large-Q Potts model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Bela; Troyer, Matthias; Gull, Emanuel; Trebst, Simon; Huse, David A


    The numerical simulation of strongly first-order phase transitions has remained a notoriously difficult problem even for classical systems due to the exponentially suppressed (thermal) equilibration in the vicinity of such a transition. In the absence of efficient update techniques, a common approach for improving equilibration in Monte Carlo simulations is broadening the sampled statistical ensemble beyond the bimodal distribution of the canonical ensemble. Here we show how a recently developed feedback algorithm can systematically optimize such broad-histogram ensembles and significantly speed up equilibration in comparison with other extended ensemble techniques such as flat-histogram, multicanonical and Wang–Landau sampling. We simulate, as a prototypical example of a strong first-order transition, the two-dimensional Potts model with up to Q = 250 different states in large systems. The optimized histogram develops a distinct multi-peak structure, thereby resolving entropic barriers and their associated phase transitions in the phase coexistence region—such as droplet nucleation and annihilation, and droplet–strip transitions for systems with periodic boundary conditions. We characterize the efficiency of the optimized histogram sampling by measuring round-trip times τ(N, Q) across the phase transition for samples comprised of N spins. While we find power-law scaling of τ versus N for small Q∼ 2 , we observe a crossover to exponential scaling for larger Q. These results demonstrate that despite the ensemble optimization, broad-histogram simulations cannot fully eliminate the supercritical slowing down at strongly first-order transitions

  15. Application of the spine-layer jet radiation model to outbursts in the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 120 (United States)

    Janiak, M.; Sikora, M.; Moderski, R.


    We present a detailed Fermi/LAT data analysis for the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 120. This source has recently entered into a state of increased γ-ray activity which manifested itself in two major flares detected by Fermi/LAT in 2014 September and 2015 April with no significant flux changes reported in other wavelengths. We analyse available data focusing our attention on aforementioned outbursts. We find very fast variability time-scale during flares (of the order of hours) together with a significant γ-ray flux increase. We show that the ˜6.8 yr averaged γ-ray emission of 3C 120 is likely a sum of the external radiation Compton and the synchrotron self-Compton radiative components. To address the problem of violent γ-ray flares and fast variability we model the jet radiation dividing the jet structure into two components: the wide and relatively slow outer layer and the fast, narrow spine. We show that with the addition of the fast spine occasionally bent towards the observer we are able to explain observed spectral energy distribution of 3C 120 during flares with the Compton upscattered broad-line region and dusty torus photons as main γ-rays emission mechanism.

  16. Effects of Land Cover Changes to the Quantity of Water Supply and Hydrologic Cycle using Water Balance Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caja CC


    Full Text Available The hydrologic cycle is a recurring consequence of different forms of movement of water and changes of its physical state on a given area of the earth. The land cover of a certain area is a significant factor affecting the watershed hydrology. This also affects the quantity of water supply within the watershed. This study assessed the impacts of the changing land cover of the Ipo watershed, a part of the Angat-Ipo-La Mesa water system which is the main source of Metro Manila’s water supply. The environmental impacts were assessed using the interaction of vegetation cover changes and the output flow rates in Ipo watershed. Using hydrologic modelling system, the hydrological balance using rainfall, vegetation and terrain data of the watershed was simulated. Over the years, there has been a decreasing land cover within the watershed caused mostly by deforestation and other human activities. This significant change in the land cover resulted to extreme increase in water discharge at all streams and rivers in the watershed and the water balance of the area were affected as saturation and shape of the land terrain changes.

  17. Snow cover monitoring model and change over both time and space in pastoral area of northern China (United States)

    Cui, Yan; Li, Suju; Wang, Ping; Zhang, Wei; Nie, Juan; Wen, Qi


    Snow disaster is a natural phenomenon owning to widespread snowfall for a long time and usually affect people's life, property and economic. During the whole disaster management circle, snow disaster in pastoral area of northern china which including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Tibet has been paid more attention. Thus do a good job in snow cover monitoring then found snow disaster in time can help the people in disaster area to take effective rescue measures, which always been the central and local government great important work. Remote sensing has been used widely in snow cover monitoring for its wide range, high efficiency, less conditions, more methods and large information. NOAA/AVHRR data has been used for wide range, plenty bands information and timely acquired and act as an import data of Snow Cover Monitoring Model (SCMM). SCMM including functions list below: First after NOAA/AVHRR data has been acquired, geometric calibration, radiometric calibration and other pre-processing work has been operated. Second after band operation, four threshold conditions are used to extract snow spectrum information among water, cloud and other features in NOAA/AVHRR image. Third snow cover information has been analyzed one by one and the maximum snow cover from about twenty images in a week has been selected. Then selected image has been mosaic which covered the pastoral area of China. At last both time and space analysis has been carried out through this operational model ,such as analysis on the difference between this week and the same period of last year , this week and last week in three level regional. SCMM have been run successfully for three years, and the results have been take into account as one of the three factors which led to risk warning of snow disaster and analysis results from it always play an important role in disaster reduction and relief.

  18. Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model (United States)

    Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing


    Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

  19. Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions (United States)

    Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.


    Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the

  20. Accounting rigid support at the border in a mixed model the finite element method in problems of ice cover destruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Knyazkov


    Full Text Available To evaluate the force to damage the ice covers is necessary for estimation of icebreaking capability of vessels, as well as of hull strength of icebreakers, and navigation of ships in ice conditions. On the other hand, the use of ice cover support to arrange construction works from the ice is also of practical interest.By the present moment a great deal of investigations of ice cover deformation have been carried out to result, usually, in approximate calculations formula which was obtained after making a variety of assumptions. Nevertheless, we believe that it is possible to make further improvement in calculations. Application numerical methods, and, for example, FEM, makes possible to avoid numerous drawbacks of analytical methods dealing with both complex boundaries and load application areas and other problem peculiarities.The article considers an application of mixed models of FEM for investigating ice cover deformation. A simple flexible triangle element of mixed type was taken to solve this problem. Vector of generalized coordinates of the element contains apices flexures and normal bending moments in the middle of its sides. Compared to other elements mixed models easily satisfy compatibility requirements on the boundary of adjacent elements and do not require numerical displacement differentiation to define bending moments, because bending moments are included in vector of element generalized coordinates.The method of account of rigid support plate is proposed. The resulting ratio, taking into account the "stiffening", reduces the number of resolving systems of equations by the number of elements on the plate contour.To evaluate further the results the numerical realization of ice cover stress-strained problem it becomes necessary and correct to check whether calculation results correspond to accurate solution. Using an example of circular plate the convergence of numerical solutions to analytical solutions is showed.The article

  1. Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study (United States)

    Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut


    A great number of river and lakes in Norway and the Nordic region at large are regulated for water management such as hydropower production. Such regulations have the potential to alter the thermal and hydrological regimes in the lakes and rivers downstream impacting on river environment and ecology. Anticipated changes as a result of climate change in meteorological forcing data such as air temperature and precipitation cause changes in the water balance, water temperature and ice cover duration in the reservoirs. This may necessitate changes in operational rules as part of an adaptation strategy for the future. In this study, a one dimensional (1D) lake thermodynamic and ice cover model (MyLake) has been modified to take into account the effect of dynamic outflows in reservoirs and applied to two small but relatively deep regulated lakes (reservoirs) in Norway (Follsjøen and Tesse). The objective was to assess climate change impacts on the seasonal thermal characteristics, the withdrawal temperatures, and the reservoir ice cover dynamics with current operational regimes. The model solves the vertical energy balance on a daily time-step driven by meteorological and hydrological forcings: 2m air temperature, precipitation, 2m relative humidity, 10m wind speed, cloud cover, air pressure, solar insolation, inflow volume, inflow temperature and reservoir outflows. Model calibration with multi-seasonal data of temperature profiles showed that the model performed well in simulating the vertical water temperature profiles for the two study reservoirs. The withdrawal temperatures were also simulated reasonably well. The comparison between observed and simulated lake ice phenology (which were available only for one of the reservoirs - Tesse) was also reasonable taking into account the uncertainty in the observational data. After model testing and calibration, the model was then used to simulate expected changes in the future (2080s) due to climate change by considering

  2. Optimal Covering Material for Stent-Grafts Placed in the Portal Vein in a Canine Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, Seigo; Sato, Morio; Sonomura, Tetsuo; Yamada, Katsuyuki; Tanihata, Hirohiko; Ishikawa, Hime; Terada, Masaki; Sahara, Shinya; Kawai, Nobuyuki; Kimura, Masashi; Mori, Ichiro


    Purpose. We evaluated the suitability of Dacron, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), and small intestinal submucosa (SIS) as a covering material for stent-grafts placed in the portal vein as compared with a bare stent. Methods. Using 24 beagle dogs, either bare stents or stent-grafts covered with Dacron, PTFE, or SIS were placed in the main trunk of the portal vein in 6 animals each. Portography was performed immediately after stent placement, and at 2, 4, and 12 weeks thereafter. Next, the extracted stents or stent-grafts were examined histopathologically. Neointimal thickness adjacent to the stent wire and at the midportion between the stent wires was compared among the groups. Then, the neointimal thickness at the sub- and supragraft sites was compared between each stent-graft group. Serial changes in the histologic features of the thickened neointima were also investigated. Results. No significant difference was noted in the mean stenotic ratio of the portal vein diameter between the bare stent and PTFE groups, whereas it was significantly higher in the Dacron and SIS groups compared with the bare stent group. In neither of the studies on neointimal thickness adjacent to the stent wire and at the midportion between the stent wires were any significant differences noted between the neointimal thickness of the bare stent group and the sum of the neointimal thickness of the PTFE group, whereas the sum of the neointimal thickness of the Dacron and SIS groups was significantly greater than that of the bare stent group at both sites. In the comparison of the supragraft neointimal thickness, the SIS group showed significantly greater thickness than the PTFE group, while the difference between the Dacron and PTFE groups was not significant. In the comparison of the subgraft neointimal thickness, the Dacron and SIS groups showed significantly greater thickness than the PTFE group. Conclusion. The present results indicate that of the three covering materials examined here

  3. The impact of land-cover modification on the June meteorology of China since 1700, simulated using a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, H.; Pitman, A.J.; Zhao, M.; Leemans, R.


    A series of simulations was conducted using a regional climate model with a domain covering mainland China. Simulations were conducted for a single June using estimated land cover for 1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The conversion of land cover between these periods was extensive

  4. Impact of the snow cover scheme on snow distribution and energy budget modeling over the Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Xie, Zhipeng; Hu, Zeyong; Xie, Zhenghui; Jia, Binghao; Sun, Genhou; Du, Yizhen; Song, Haiqing


    This paper presents the impact of two snow cover schemes (NY07 and SL12) in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) on the snow distribution and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau. The simulated snow cover fraction (SCF), snow depth, and snow cover days were evaluated against in situ snow depth observations and a satellite-based snow cover product and snow depth dataset. The results show that the SL12 scheme, which considers snow accumulation and snowmelt processes separately, has a higher overall accuracy (81.8%) than the NY07 (75.8%). The newer scheme performs better in the prediction of overall accuracy compared with the NY07; however, SL12 yields a 15.1% underestimation rate while NY07 overestimated the SCF with a 15.2% overestimation rate. Both two schemes capture the distribution of the maximum snow depth well but show large positive biases in the average value through all periods (3.37, 3.15, and 1.48 cm for NY07; 3.91, 3.52, and 1.17 cm for SL12) and overestimate snow cover days compared with the satellite-based product and in situ observations. Higher altitudes show larger root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) in the simulations of snow depth and snow cover days during the snow-free period. Moreover, the surface energy flux estimations from the SL12 scheme are generally superior to the simulation from NY07 when evaluated against ground-based observations, in particular for net radiation and sensible heat flux. This study has great implications for further improvement of the subgrid-scale snow variations over the Tibetan Plateau.

  5. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments (United States)

    Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.


    Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision

  6. Identifying Generalizable Image Segmentation Parameters for Urban Land Cover Mapping through Meta-Analysis and Regression Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Johnson


    Full Text Available The advent of very high resolution (VHR satellite imagery and the development of Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA have led to many new opportunities for fine-scale land cover mapping, especially in urban areas. Image segmentation is an important step in the GEOBIA framework, so great time/effort is often spent to ensure that computer-generated image segments closely match real-world objects of interest. In the remote sensing community, segmentation is frequently performed using the multiresolution segmentation (MRS algorithm, which is tuned through three user-defined parameters (the scale, shape/color, and compactness/smoothness parameters. The scale parameter (SP is the most important parameter and governs the average size of generated image segments. Existing automatic methods to determine suitable SPs for segmentation are scene-specific and often computationally intensive, so an approach to estimating appropriate SPs that is generalizable (i.e., not scene-specific could speed up the GEOBIA workflow considerably. In this study, we attempted to identify generalizable SPs for five common urban land cover types (buildings, vegetation, roads, bare soil, and water through meta-analysis and nonlinear regression tree (RT modeling. First, we performed a literature search of recent studies that employed GEOBIA for urban land cover mapping and extracted the MRS parameters used, the image properties (i.e., spatial and radiometric resolutions, and the land cover classes mapped. Using this data extracted from the literature, we constructed RT models for each land cover class to predict suitable SP values based on the: image spatial resolution, image radiometric resolution, shape/color parameter, and compactness/smoothness parameter. Based on a visual and quantitative analysis of results, we found that for all land cover classes except water, relatively accurate SPs could be identified using our RT modeling results. The main advantage of our

  7. Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome (United States)

    Kimball, John; Kang, Sinkyu


    The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

  8. Scaling and Numerical Model Evaluation of Snow-Cover Effects on the Generation and Modification of Daytime Mesoscale Circulations. (United States)

    Segal, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Ye, Z.


    Consideration of the sensible heat flux characteristics over a snow surface suggests a significant diminution in the magnitude of the flux, compared to that over a snow-free surface under the same environmental conditions. Consequently, the existence of snow-covered mesoscale areas adjacent to snow-free areas produces horizontal thermal gradients in the lower atmosphere during the daytime, possibly resulting in a `snow breeze.' In addition, suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow over snow-covered slopes is likely to occur. The present paper provides scaling and modeling evaluations of these situations, with quantification of the generated and modified circulations. These evaluations suggest that under ideal situations involved with uniform snow cover over large areas, particularly in late winter and early spring, a noticeable `snow breeze' is likely to develop. Additionally: suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow is significant and may even result in a daytime drainage flow. The effects of bare ground patchiness in the snow cover on these circulations are also explored, both for flat terrain and slope-flow situations. A patchiness fraction greater than 0.5 is found to result in a noticeably reduced snow-breeze circulation, while a patchiness fraction of only 0.1 caused the simulated daytime drainage flow over slopes to he reversed.

  9. Accuracy Assessment of Lidar-Derived Digital Terrain Model (dtm) with Different Slope and Canopy Cover in Tropical Forest Region (United States)

    Salleh, M. R. M.; Ismail, Z.; Rahman, M. Z. A.


    Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology has been widely used recent years especially in generating high accuracy of Digital Terrain Model (DTM). High density and good quality of airborne LiDAR data promises a high quality of DTM. This study focussing on the analysing the error associated with the density of vegetation cover (canopy cover) and terrain slope in a LiDAR derived-DTM value in a tropical forest environment in Bentong, State of Pahang, Malaysia. Airborne LiDAR data were collected can be consider as low density captured by Reigl system mounted on an aircraft. The ground filtering procedure use adaptive triangulation irregular network (ATIN) algorithm technique in producing ground points. Next, the ground control points (GCPs) used in generating the reference DTM and these DTM was used for slope classification and the point clouds belong to non-ground are then used in determining the relative percentage of canopy cover. The results show that terrain slope has high correlation for both study area (0.993 and 0.870) with the RMSE of the LiDAR-derived DTM. This is similar to canopy cover where high value of correlation (0.989 and 0.924) obtained. This indicates that the accuracy of airborne LiDAR-derived DTM is significantly affected by terrain slope and canopy caver of study area.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. M. Salleh


    Full Text Available Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR technology has been widely used recent years especially in generating high accuracy of Digital Terrain Model (DTM. High density and good quality of airborne LiDAR data promises a high quality of DTM. This study focussing on the analysing the error associated with the density of vegetation cover (canopy cover and terrain slope in a LiDAR derived-DTM value in a tropical forest environment in Bentong, State of Pahang, Malaysia. Airborne LiDAR data were collected can be consider as low density captured by Reigl system mounted on an aircraft. The ground filtering procedure use adaptive triangulation irregular network (ATIN algorithm technique in producing ground points. Next, the ground control points (GCPs used in generating the reference DTM and these DTM was used for slope classification and the point clouds belong to non-ground are then used in determining the relative percentage of canopy cover. The results show that terrain slope has high correlation for both study area (0.993 and 0.870 with the RMSE of the LiDAR-derived DTM. This is similar to canopy cover where high value of correlation (0.989 and 0.924 obtained. This indicates that the accuracy of airborne LiDAR-derived DTM is significantly affected by terrain slope and canopy caver of study area.

  11. Efficacy of oral E1210, a new broad-spectrum antifungal with a novel mechanism of action, in murine models of candidiasis, aspergillosis, and fusariosis. (United States)

    Hata, Katsura; Horii, Takaaki; Miyazaki, Mamiko; Watanabe, Nao-Aki; Okubo, Miyuki; Sonoda, Jiro; Nakamoto, Kazutaka; Tanaka, Keigo; Shirotori, Syuji; Murai, Norio; Inoue, Satoshi; Matsukura, Masayuki; Abe, Shinya; Yoshimatsu, Kentaro; Asada, Makoto


    E1210 is a first-in-class, broad-spectrum antifungal with a novel mechanism of action-inhibition of fungal glycosylphosphatidylinositol biosynthesis. In this study, the efficacies of E1210 and reference antifungals were evaluated in murine models of oropharyngeal and disseminated candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. Oral E1210 demonstrated dose-dependent efficacy in infections caused by Candida species, Aspergillus spp., and Fusarium solani. In the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis, E1210 and fluconazole each caused a significantly greater reduction in the number of oral CFU than the control treatment (P candidiasis model, mice treated with E1210, fluconazole, caspofungin, or liposomal amphotericin B showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis caused by azole-resistant Candida albicans or Candida tropicalis. A 24-h delay in treatment onset minimally affected the efficacy outcome of E1210 in the treatment of disseminated candidiasis. In the Aspergillus flavus pulmonary aspergillosis model, mice treated with E1210, voriconazole, or caspofungin showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. These data suggest that further studies to determine E1210's potential for the treatment of disseminated fungal infections are indicated.

  12. Efficacy of Oral E1210, a New Broad-Spectrum Antifungal with a Novel Mechanism of Action, in Murine Models of Candidiasis, Aspergillosis, and Fusariosis▿ (United States)

    Hata, Katsura; Horii, Takaaki; Miyazaki, Mamiko; Watanabe, Nao-aki; Okubo, Miyuki; Sonoda, Jiro; Nakamoto, Kazutaka; Tanaka, Keigo; Shirotori, Syuji; Murai, Norio; Inoue, Satoshi; Matsukura, Masayuki; Abe, Shinya; Yoshimatsu, Kentaro; Asada, Makoto


    E1210 is a first-in-class, broad-spectrum antifungal with a novel mechanism of action—inhibition of fungal glycosylphosphatidylinositol biosynthesis. In this study, the efficacies of E1210 and reference antifungals were evaluated in murine models of oropharyngeal and disseminated candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. Oral E1210 demonstrated dose-dependent efficacy in infections caused by Candida species, Aspergillus spp., and Fusarium solani. In the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis, E1210 and fluconazole each caused a significantly greater reduction in the number of oral CFU than the control treatment (P candidiasis model, mice treated with E1210, fluconazole, caspofungin, or liposomal amphotericin B showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis caused by azole-resistant Candida albicans or Candida tropicalis. A 24-h delay in treatment onset minimally affected the efficacy outcome of E1210 in the treatment of disseminated candidiasis. In the Aspergillus flavus pulmonary aspergillosis model, mice treated with E1210, voriconazole, or caspofungin showed significantly higher survival rates than the control mice (P candidiasis, pulmonary aspergillosis, and disseminated fusariosis. These data suggest that further studies to determine E1210's potential for the treatment of disseminated fungal infections are indicated. PMID:21788462

  13. A grid-based Model for Backwasting at supraglacial Ice Cliffs on a debris-covered Glacier (United States)

    Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Pellicciotti, F.; Miles, E. S.; Immerzeel, W.


    In the Himalaya, debris-covered glaciers cover significant portions of the glacierised area. Their behaviour is not entirely understood, but they seem to experience strong mass losses in direct contradiction with the insulating effect of debris. A characteristic most debris-covered glaciers share is the appearance of cliffs and lakes on their surface. These supraglacial features play a role in surface evolution, dynamics and downwasting of debris-covered glaciers but their actual effects have not been quantified at the glacier scale. Numerous measurements of radiative fluxes at the cliff surface, detailed survey of cliffs geometry and ablation have been conducted on the debris-covered Lirung Glacier, Nepalese Himalayas. We used four 20cm-resolution DEMs obtained from UAV flights to represent the glacier surface to a very detailed degree. As the debris remains stable on slopes up to 30°, ice cliffs show inclinations above this threshold and were clearly represented in the DEMs. Direct measurements and a point-scale cliff-backwasting model have showed that melt patterns over a single cliff are highly variable across and along the ice surface due to non-uniform geometry, varying inclination, aspect and terrain view factors. Variability in observed ablation was large also among cliffs. We therefore developed an energy balance model with a gridded representation of the cliff to understand the melt behaviour at the cliff scale. Previous models assumed the cliff to be a plane with a constant slope and aspect, and extrapolation of melt rates to the glacier scale based on this assumption might be erroneous. Using a grid-based approach allows representation of real inclined areas of the cliff. The detailed surface from the UAV-DEM was taken as initial condition for the model. The model was in close agreement with ablation measurements at numerous stakes located on 3 cliffs. Results show very high variability both along the cliffs' elevation and extension. These cannot be

  14. Optimized broad-histogram simulations for strong first-order phase transitions: droplet transitions in the large-Q Potts model (United States)

    Bauer, Bela; Gull, Emanuel; Trebst, Simon; Troyer, Matthias; Huse, David A.


    The numerical simulation of strongly first-order phase transitions has remained a notoriously difficult problem even for classical systems due to the exponentially suppressed (thermal) equilibration in the vicinity of such a transition. In the absence of efficient update techniques, a common approach for improving equilibration in Monte Carlo simulations is broadening the sampled statistical ensemble beyond the bimodal distribution of the canonical ensemble. Here we show how a recently developed feedback algorithm can systematically optimize such broad-histogram ensembles and significantly speed up equilibration in comparison with other extended ensemble techniques such as flat-histogram, multicanonical and Wang-Landau sampling. We simulate, as a prototypical example of a strong first-order transition, the two-dimensional Potts model with up to Q = 250 different states in large systems. The optimized histogram develops a distinct multi-peak structure, thereby resolving entropic barriers and their associated phase transitions in the phase coexistence region—such as droplet nucleation and annihilation, and droplet-strip transitions for systems with periodic boundary conditions. We characterize the efficiency of the optimized histogram sampling by measuring round-trip times τ(N, Q) across the phase transition for samples comprised of N spins. While we find power-law scaling of τ versus N for small Q \\lesssim 50 and N \\lesssim 40^2 , we observe a crossover to exponential scaling for larger Q. These results demonstrate that despite the ensemble optimization, broad-histogram simulations cannot fully eliminate the supercritical slowing down at strongly first-order transitions.

  15. Broad-Band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku (United States)

    Asami, Fumi; Enoto, Teruaki; Iwakiri, Wataru; Yamada, Shin'ya; Tamagawa, Toru; Mihara, Tatehiro; Nagase, Fumiaki


    Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4- 100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4-9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of sigma = 1.0-1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400-900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

  16. A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengieter, Ronald; Acevedo, William


    Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

  17. Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Jantz


    Full Text Available We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

  18. Comparing the performance of flat and hierarchical Habitat/Land-Cover classification models in a NATURA 2000 site (United States)

    Gavish, Yoni; O'Connell, Jerome; Marsh, Charles J.; Tarantino, Cristina; Blonda, Palma; Tomaselli, Valeria; Kunin, William E.


    The increasing need for high quality Habitat/Land-Cover (H/LC) maps has triggered considerable research into novel machine-learning based classification models. In many cases, H/LC classes follow pre-defined hierarchical classification schemes (e.g., CORINE), in which fine H/LC categories are thematically nested within more general categories. However, none of the existing machine-learning algorithms account for this pre-defined hierarchical structure. Here we introduce a novel Random Forest (RF) based application of hierarchical classification, which fits a separate local classification model in every branching point of the thematic tree, and then integrates all the different local models to a single global prediction. We applied the hierarchal RF approach in a NATURA 2000 site in Italy, using two land-cover (CORINE, FAO-LCCS) and one habitat classification scheme (EUNIS) that differ from one another in the shape of the class hierarchy. For all 3 classification schemes, both the hierarchical model and a flat model alternative provided accurate predictions, with kappa values mostly above 0.9 (despite using only 2.2-3.2% of the study area as training cells). The flat approach slightly outperformed the hierarchical models when the hierarchy was relatively simple, while the hierarchical model worked better under more complex thematic hierarchies. Most misclassifications came from habitat pairs that are thematically distant yet spectrally similar. In 2 out of 3 classification schemes, the additional constraints of the hierarchical model resulted with fewer such serious misclassifications relative to the flat model. The hierarchical model also provided valuable information on variable importance which can shed light into "black-box" based machine learning algorithms like RF. We suggest various ways by which hierarchical classification models can increase the accuracy and interpretability of H/LC classification maps.

  19. What Role for Humans in Global Land Cover Change over the Holocene? Insights from Models and Data (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.; Davis, B. A. S.; Zanon, M.


    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive this integrated model a new synthesis of demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate natural vegetation and anthropogenic land use from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850 and compare these results with regional syntheses of pollen-based reconstructions of land cover. Our model results show that climate and tectonics controlled global land cover in the early Holocene. Shifts in forest biomes on the northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits. By the early Iron Age (1000 BC), however, humans in Europe, East Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. Anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. While we simulate fluctuations in human impact on the landscape, including periods of widespread land abandonment, e.g., during the Migration Period in Europe that following the end of the Western Roman Empire, approaching the Industrial Revolution nearly all of the landmasses of Europe and south and East Asia are dominated by anthropogenic activities. In contrast, the

  20. A comparison of simple and realistic eye models for calculation of fluence to dose conversion coefficients in a broad parallel beam incident of protons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakhaee, Mahmoud; Vejdani-Noghreiyan, Alireza; Ebrahimi-Khankook, Atiyeh


    Radiation induced cataract has been demonstrated among people who are exposed to ionizing radiation. To evaluate the deterministic effects of ionizing radiation on the eye lens, several papers dealing with the eye lens dose have been published. ICRP Publication 103 states that the lens of the eye may be more radiosensitive than previously considered. Detailed investigation of the response of the lens showed that there are strong differences in sensitivity to ionizing radiation exposure with respect to cataract induction among the tissues of the lens of the eye. This motivated several groups to look deeper into issue of the dose to a sensitive cell population within the lens, especially for radiations with low energy penetrability that have steep dose gradients inside the lens. Two sophisticated mathematical models of the eye including the inner structure have been designed for the accurate dose estimation in recent years. This study focuses on the calculations of the absorbed doses of different parts of the eye using the stylized models located in UF-ORNL phantom and comparison with the data calculated with the reference computational phantom in a broad parallel beam incident of protons with energies between 20 MeV and 10 GeV. The obtained results indicate that the total lens absorbed doses of reference phantom has good compliance with those of the more sensitive regions of stylized models. However, total eye absorbed dose of these models greatly differ with each other for lower energies. - Highlights: • The validation of reference data for the eye was studied for proton exposures. • Two real mathematical models of the eye were imported into the UF-ORNL phantom. • Fluence to dose conversion coefficients were calculated for different eye sections. • Obtained Results were compared with that of assessed by ICRP adult male phantom

  1. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models. (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M


    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  2. Benthic Cover (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Benthic cover (habitat) maps are derived from aerial imagery, underwater photos, acoustic surveys, and data gathered from sediment samples. Shallow to moderate-depth...

  3. Ecological niche modeling and land cover risk areas for rift valley fever vector, culex tritaeniorhynchus giles in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. (United States)

    Sallam, Mohamed F; Al Ahmed, Azzam M; Abdel-Dayem, Mahmoud S; Abdullah, Mohamed A R


    The mosquito, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles is a prevalent and confirmed Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) vector. This vector, in association with Aedimorphus arabiensis (Patton), was responsible for causing the outbreak of 2000 in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia. Larval occurrence records and a total of 19 bioclimatic and three topographic layers imported from Worldclim Database were used to predict the larval suitable breeding habitats for this vector in Jazan Province using ArcGIS ver.10 and MaxEnt modeling program. Also, a supervised land cover classification from SPOT5 imagery was developed to assess the land cover distribution within the suitable predicted habitats. Eleven bioclimatic and slope attributes were found to be the significant predictors for this larval suitable breeding habitat. Precipitation and temperature were strong predictors of mosquito distribution. Among six land cover classes, the linear regression model (LM) indicated wet muddy substrate is significantly associated with high-very high suitable predicted habitats (R(2) = 73.7%, Presearchers.

  4. A note on the translation of conceptual data models into description logics: disjointness and covering assumptions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Casini, G


    Full Text Available possibilities for conceptual data modeling. It also raises the question of how existing conceptual models using ER, UML or ORM could be translated into Description Logics (DLs), a family of logics that have proved to be particularly appropriate for formalizing...

  5. Explicit validation of a surface shortwave radiation balance model over snow-covered complex terrain (United States)

    Helbig, N.; Löwe, H.; Mayer, B.; Lehning, M.


    A model that computes the surface radiation balance for all sky conditions in complex terrain is presented. The spatial distribution of direct and diffuse sky radiation is determined from observations of incident global radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at a single measurement location. Incident radiation under cloudless sky is spatially derived from a parameterization of the atmospheric transmittance. Direct and diffuse sky radiation for all sky conditions are obtained by decomposing the measured global radiation value. Spatial incident radiation values under all atmospheric conditions are computed by adjusting the spatial radiation values obtained from the parametric model with the radiation components obtained from the decomposition model at the measurement site. Topographic influences such as shading are accounted for. The radiosity approach is used to compute anisotropic terrain reflected radiation. Validations of the shortwave radiation balance model are presented in detail for a day with cloudless sky. For a day with overcast sky a first validation is presented. Validation of a section of the horizon line as well as of individual radiation components is performed with high-quality measurements. A new measurement setup was designed to determine terrain reflected radiation. There is good agreement between the measurements and the modeled terrain reflected radiation values as well as with incident radiation values. A comparison of the model with a fully three-dimensional radiative transfer Monte Carlo model is presented. That validation reveals a good agreement between modeled radiation values.

  6. Calculating the bidirectional reflectance of natural vegetation covers using Boolean models and geometric optics (United States)

    Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiao-Wen; Jupp, David L. B.


    The bidirectional radiance or reflectance of a forest or woodland can be modeled using principles of geometric optics and Boolean models for random sets in a three dimensional space. This model may be defined at two levels, the scene includes four components; sunlight and shadowed canopy, and sunlit and shadowed background. The reflectance of the scene is modeled as the sum of the reflectances of the individual components as weighted by their areal proportions in the field of view. At the leaf level, the canopy envelope is an assemblage of leaves, and thus the reflectance is a function of the areal proportions of sunlit and shadowed leaf, and sunlit and shadowed background. Because the proportions of scene components are dependent upon the directions of irradiance and exitance, the model accounts for the hotspot that is well known in leaf and tree canopies.

  7. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.


    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  8. Online model evaluation of large-eddy simulations covering Germany with a horizontal resolution of 156 m (United States)

    Hansen, Akio; Ament, Felix; Lammert, Andrea


    Large-eddy simulations have been performed since several decades, but due to computational limits most studies were restricted to small domains or idealised initial-/boundary conditions. Within the High definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project realistic weather forecasting like LES simulations were performed with the newly developed ICON LES model for several days. The domain covers central Europe with a horizontal resolution down to 156 m. The setup consists of more than 3 billion grid cells, by what one 3D dump requires roughly 500 GB. A newly developed online evaluation toolbox was created to check instantaneously for realistic model simulations. The toolbox automatically combines model results with observations and generates several quicklooks for various variables. So far temperature-/humidity profiles, cloud cover, integrated water vapour, precipitation and many more are included. All kind of observations like aircraft observations, soundings or precipitation radar networks are used. For each dataset, a specific module is created, which allows for an easy handling and enhancement of the toolbox. Most of the observations are automatically downloaded from the Standardized Atmospheric Measurement Database (SAMD). The evaluation tool should support scientists at monitoring computational costly model simulations as well as to give a first overview about model's performance. The structure of the toolbox as well as the SAMD database are presented. Furthermore, the toolbox was applied on an ICON LES sensitivity study, where example results are shown.

  9. Integrating the effects of forest cover on slope stability in a deterministic landslide susceptibility model (TRIGRS 2.0) (United States)

    Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Bremer, M.; Meissl, G.; Geitner, C.


    The potentially stabilizing effects of forest cover in respect of slope stability have been the subject of many studies in the recent past. Hence, the effects of trees are also considered in many deterministic landslide susceptibility models. TRIGRS 2.0 (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability; USGS) is a dynamic, physically-based model designed to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility in space and time. In the original version the effects of forest cover are not considered. As for further studies in Vorarlberg (Austria) TRIGRS 2.0 is intended to be applied in selected catchments that are densely forested, the effects of trees on slope stability were implemented in the model. Besides hydrological impacts such as interception or transpiration by tree canopies and stems, root cohesion directly influences the stability of slopes especially in case of shallow landslides while the additional weight superimposed by trees is of minor relevance. Detailed data on tree positions and further attributes such as tree height and diameter at breast height were derived throughout the study area (52 km²) from high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. Different scenarios were computed for spruce (Picea abies) in the study area. Root cohesion was estimated area-wide based on published correlations between root reinforcement and distance to tree stems depending on the stem diameter at breast height. In order to account for decreasing root cohesion with depth an exponential distribution was assumed and implemented in the model. Preliminary modelling results show that forest cover can have positive effects on slope stability yet strongly depending on tree age and stand structure. This work has been conducted within C3S-ISLS, which is funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund, 5th ACRP Program.

  10. Modeled Impacts of Cover Crops and Vegetative Barriers on Corn Stover Availability and Soil Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian J. Bonner; David J. Muth Jr.; Joshua B. Koch; Douglas L. Karlen


    Environmentally benign, economically viable, and socially acceptable agronomic strategies are needed to launch a sustainable lignocellulosic biofuel industry. Our objective was to demonstrate a landscape planning process that can ensure adequate supplies of corn (Zea mays L.) stover feedstock while protecting and improving soil quality. The Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) was used to develop land use strategies that were then scaled up for five U.S. Corn Belt states (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota) to illustrate the impact that could be achieved. Our results show an annual sustainable stover supply of 194 million Mg without exceeding soil erosion T values or depleting soil organic carbon [i.e., soil conditioning index (SCI)?>?0] when no-till, winter cover crop, and vegetative barriers were incorporated into the landscape. A second, more rigorous conservation target was set to enhance soil quality while sustainably harvesting stover. By requiring erosion to be <1/2 T and the SCI-organic matter (OM) subfactor to be >?0, the annual sustainable quantity of harvestable stover dropped to148 million Mg. Examining removal rates by state and soil resource showed that soil capability class and slope generally determined the effectiveness of the three conservation practices and the resulting sustainable harvest rate. This emphasizes that sustainable biomass harvest must be based on subfield management decisions to ensure soil resources are conserved or enhanced, while providing sufficient biomass feedstock to support the economic growth of bioenergy enterprises.

  11. Effects of forest cover changes in European Russia on regional weather conditions: results of numerical experiments with the COSMO-CLM model (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kuzmina, Ekaterina; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Rivin, Gdaly S.


    The forests have a significant effect on the climatic system. They capture CO2 from the atmosphere, regulate the surface evaporation and runoff, and influence the radiation and thermal conditions of the land surface. It is obvious, that their influence depends on many different factors including regional climate conditions, land use and vegetation structure, surface topography, etc. The main goal of the study is to assess the possible influence of forest cover changes (under deforestation and/or afforestation) on regional weather conditions in the central part of European Russia using the results of modeling experiments provided by the meso-scale COSMO-CLM model. The need of the study lies in a lack of the experimental and modeling data characterizing the influence of the forest and land-use changes on regional weather conditions in European part of Russia. The forest ecosystems in the study region play a very important biosphere role that is significantly increased in the last decades due to considerable strengthening of anthropogenic activity in the area of European Russia. The area selected for the study is located in the central part of European Russia between 55 and 59N and 28 and 37E. It comprises several geographical zones including dark-coniferous forests of the South-European taiga in the north, the mixed forests in the central part and the broad-leaved forests in the south. The forests within the study area are very heterogeneous. The total area covered by forests according to recent remote sensing data is about 50%. The numerical experiments were provided using the COSMO-CLM model with the spatial resolution 13.2 km. As initial and boundary conditions for the numerical experiments the global reanalysis ERA Interim (with the 6-hour resolution in time and 0.75° × 0.75° in space) were used. The weather conditions were simulated in a continuous cycle for several months for the entire area of European Russia using the results of global reanalysis on

  12. Advanced spatial metrics analysis in cellular automata land use and cover change modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamyatin, Alexander; Cabral, Pedro


    This paper proposes an approach for a more effective definition of cellular automata transition rules for landscape change modeling using an advanced spatial metrics analysis. This approach considers a four-stage methodology based on: (i) the search for the appropriate spatial metrics with minimal correlations; (ii) the selection of the appropriate neighborhood size; (iii) the selection of the appropriate technique for spatial metrics application; and (iv) the analysis of the contribution level of each spatial metric for joint use. The case study uses an initial set of 7 spatial metrics of which 4 are selected for modeling. Results show a better model performance when compared to modeling without any spatial metrics or with the initial set of 7 metrics.

  13. Stochastic spatio-temporal model of coral cover as a function of herbivorous grazers, water quality, and coral demographics (United States)

    Neuhausler, R.; Robinson, M.; Bruna, M.


    Over the last 60 years we have seen an increased amount of ecological regime shifts in tropical coastal zones, from coral reefs to macroalgae dominated states, as a result of natural and anthropogenic stresses. However, these shifts are not always immediate- macroalgae are generally present in coral reefs, with their distribution regulated by herbivorous fish. This is especially true in Moorea, French Polynesia, where macroalgae are shown to flourish in spaces that provide refuge from roaming herbivores. While there are currently modeling efforts in projecting ecological regime shifts in Moorea, temporal deterministic models have been utilized, which fail to capture metastability between multiple steady states and can have issues when dealing with very small populations. To address these concerns, we build on these models to account for spatial variations and individual organisms, as well as stochasticity. Our model can project the percent cover of coral, macroalgae, and algae turf as a function of herbivorous grazers, water quality, and coral demographics. Grazers, included as individual fish (particles), evolve according to a kinetic model and interact with neighbouring benthic assemblages, represented as nodes. Water quality and coral demographics are input parameters that can vary over time, allowing our model to be run for temporally changing scenarios and to be adjusted for different reefs. We plan to engage with previous Moorea Reef Resilience Models through a comparative analysis of our models' outcomes and existing Moorea data. Coupling projective models with available data is useful for informing environmental policy and advancing the modeling field.

  14. Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations (United States)

    Cook, Bruce D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Naesset, Erik; Anderson, Ryan S.; Garrigues, Sebastian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Nickeson, Jaime; Davis, Kenneth J.


    Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

  15. Land Cover Mapping Analysis and Urban Growth Modelling Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Greater Cairo Region—Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmine Megahed


    Full Text Available This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR, one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC maps (1984, 2003 and 2014 were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM. Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.

  16. Modeling of Alpine Grassland Cover Based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology and Multi-Factor Methods: A Case Study in the East of Tibetan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoping Meng


    Full Text Available Grassland cover and its temporal changes are key parameters in the estimation and monitoring of ecosystems and their functions, especially via remote sensing. However, the most suitable model for estimating grassland cover and the differences between models has rarely been studied in alpine meadow grasslands. In this study, field measurements of grassland cover in Gannan Prefecture, from 2014 to 2016, were acquired using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV technology. Single-factor parametric and multi-factor parametric/non-parametric cover inversion models were then constructed based on 14 factors related to grassland cover, and the dynamic variation of the annual maximum cover was analyzed. The results show that (1 nine out of 14 factors (longitude, latitude, elevation, the concentrations of clay and sand in the surface and bottom soils, temperature, precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI exert a significant effect on grassland cover in the study area. The logarithmic model based on EVI presents the best performance, with an R2 and RMSE of 0.52 and 16.96%, respectively. Single-factor grassland cover inversion models account for only 1–49% of the variation in cover during the growth season. (2 The optimum grassland cover inversion model is the artificial neural network (BP-ANN, with an R2 and RMSE of 0.72 and 13.38%, and SDs of 0.062% and 1.615%, respectively. Both the accuracy and the stability of the BP-ANN model are higher than those of the single-factor parametric models and multi-factor parametric/non-parametric models. (3 The annual maximum cover in Gannan Prefecture presents an increasing trend over 60.60% of the entire study area, while 36.54% is presently stable and 2.86% exhibits a decreasing trend.

  17. Climate under cover

    CERN Document Server

    Takakura, Tadashi


    1.1. INTRODUCTION Plastic covering, either framed or floating, is now used worldwide to protect crops from unfavorable growing conditions, such as severe weather and insects and birds. Protected cultivation in the broad sense, including mulching, has been widely spread by the innovation of plastic films. Paper, straw, and glass were the main materials used before the era of plastics. Utilization of plastics in agriculture started in the developed countries and is now spreading to the developing countries. Early utilization of plastic was in cold regions, and plastic was mainly used for protection from the cold. Now plastic is used also for protection from wind, insects and diseases. The use of covering techniques started with a simple system such as mulching, then row covers and small tunnels were developed, and finally plastic houses. Floating mulch was an exception to this sequence: it was introduced rather recently, although it is a simple structure. New development of functional and inexpensive films trig...

  18. Numerical modeling of a snow cover on Hooker Island (Franz Josef Land archipelago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Sokratov


    Full Text Available Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of surface heat and moisture exchange SPONSOR are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with typical Arctic climate conditions. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have great influence on snow depth on territories with high wind speed. This parameter significantly improves the simulation quality of the numerical model. Some discrepancies between evaluated and observed snow depth values can be explained by inaccuracies in precipitation measurements (at least in certain cases and errors in calculations of incoming radiation, mostly due to low accuracy in the cloudiness observations.

  19. Broad spectrum bioactive sunscreens. (United States)

    Velasco, Maria Valéria Robles; Sarruf, Fernanda Daud; Salgado-Santos, Idalina Maria Nunes; Haroutiounian-Filho, Carlos Alberto; Kaneko, Telma Mary; Baby, André Rolim


    The development of sunscreens containing reduced concentration of chemical UV filters, even though, possessing broad spectrum effectiveness with the use of natural raw materials that improve and infer UV absorption is of great interest. Due to the structural similarities between polyphenolic compounds and organic UV filters, they might exert photoprotection activity. The objective of the present research work was to develop bioactive sunscreen delivery systems containing rutin, Passiflora incarnata L. and Plantago lanceolata extracts associated or not with organic and inorganic UV filters. UV transmission of the sunscreen delivery system films was performed by using diffuse transmittance measurements coupling to an integrating sphere. In vitro photoprotection efficacy was evaluated according to the following parameters: estimated sun protection factor (SPF); Boot's Star Rating category; UVA/UVB ratio; and critical wavelength (lambda(c)). Sunscreen delivery systems obtained SPF values ranging from 0.972+/-0.004 to 28.064+/-2.429 and bioactive compounds interacted with the UV filters positive and negatively. This behavior may be attributed to: the composition of the delivery system; the presence of inorganic UV filter and quantitative composition of the organic UV filters; and the phytochemical composition of the P. incarnata L. and P. lanceolata extracts. Among all associations of bioactive compounds and UV filters, we found that the broad spectrum sunscreen was accomplished when 1.68% (w/w) P. incarnata L. dry extract was in the presence of 7.0% (w/w) ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate, 2.0% (w/w) benzophenone-3 and 2.0% (w/w) TiO(2). It was demonstrated that this association generated estimated SPF of 20.072+/-0.906 and it has improved the protective defense against UVA radiation accompanying augmentation of the UVA/UVB ratio from 0.49 to 0.52 and lambda(c) from 364 to 368.6nm.

  20. Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez-Vega


    Full Text Available Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP. We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19 around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha. The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20. Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI, greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ. In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on

  1. Bacteriophage ΦSA012 Has a Broad Host Range against Staphylococcus aureus and Effective Lytic Capacity in a Mouse Mastitis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidetomo Iwano


    Full Text Available Bovine mastitis is an inflammation of the mammary gland caused by bacterial infection in dairy cattle. It is the most costly disease in the dairy industry because of the high use of antibiotics. Staphylococcus aureus is one of the major causative agents of bovine mastitis and antimicrobial resistance. Therefore, new strategies to control bacterial infection are required in the dairy industry. One potential strategy is bacteriophage (phage therapy. In the present study, we examined the host range of previously isolated S. aureus phages ΦSA012 and ΦSA039 against S. aureus strains isolated from mastitic cows. These phages could kill all S. aureus (93 strains from 40 genotypes and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (six strains from six genotypes strains tested. Using a mouse mastitis model, we demonstrated that ΦSA012 reduced proliferation of S. aureus and inflammation in the mammary gland. Furthermore, intravenous or intraperitoneal phage administration reduced proliferation of S. aureus in the mammary glands. These results suggest that broad host range phages ΦSA012 is potential antibacterial agents for dairy production medicine.

  2. Global, broad, or specific cognitive differences? Using a MIMIC model to examine differences in CHC abilities in children with learning disabilities. (United States)

    Niileksela, Christopher R; Reynolds, Matthew R


    This study was designed to better understand the relations between learning disabilities and different levels of latent cognitive abilities, including general intelligence (g), broad cognitive abilities, and specific abilities based on the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory of intelligence (CHC theory). Data from the Differential Ability Scales-Second Edition (DAS-II) were used to create a multiple-indicator multiple cause model to examine the latent mean differences in cognitive abilities between children with and without learning disabilities in reading (LD reading), math (LD math), and reading and writing(LD reading and writing). Statistically significant differences were found in the g factor between the norm group and the LD groups. After controlling for differences in g, the LD reading and LD reading and writing groups showed relatively lower latent processing speed, and the LD math group showed relatively higher latent comprehension-knowledge. There were also some differences in some specific cognitive abilities, including lower scores in spatial relations and numerical facility for the LD math group, and lower scores in visual memory for the LD reading and writing group. These specific mean differences were above and beyond any differences in the latent cognitive factor means.

  3. Unsaturated hydraulic properties of xerophilous mosses: towards implementation of moss covered soils in hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voortman, B.R.; Bartholomeus, R.P.; Bodegom, van P.M.; Gooren, H.P.A.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.; Witte, J.P.M.


    Evaporation from mosses and lichens can form a major component of the water balance, especially in ecosystems where mosses and lichens often grow abundantly, such as tundra, deserts and bogs. To facilitate moss representation in hydrological models, we parameterized the unsaturated hydraulic

  4. Maximum Entropy Production Modeling of Evapotranspiration Partitioning on Heterogeneous Terrain and Canopy Cover: advantages and limitations. (United States)

    Gutierrez-Jurado, H. A.; Guan, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, H.; Bras, R. L.; Simmons, C. T.


    Quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) and its partition over regions of heterogeneous topography and canopy poses a challenge using traditional approaches. In this study, we report the results of a novel field experiment design guided by the Maximum Entropy Production model of ET (MEP-ET), formulated for estimating evaporation and transpiration from homogeneous soil and canopy. A catchment with complex terrain and patchy vegetation in South Australia was instrumented to measure temperature, humidity and net radiation at soil and canopy surfaces. Performance of the MEP-ET model to quantify transpiration and soil evaporation was evaluated during wet and dry conditions with independently and directly measured transpiration from sapflow and soil evaporation using the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance (BREB). MEP-ET transpiration shows remarkable agreement with that obtained through sapflow measurements during wet conditions, but consistently overestimates the flux during dry periods. However, an additional term introduced to the original MEP-ET model accounting for higher stomatal regulation during dry spells, based on differences between leaf and air vapor pressure deficits and temperatures, significantly improves the model performance. On the other hand, MEP-ET soil evaporation is in good agreement with that from BREB regardless of moisture conditions. The experimental design allows a plot and tree scale quantification of evaporation and transpiration respectively. This study confirms for the first time that the MEP-ET originally developed for homogeneous open bare soil and closed canopy can be used for modeling ET over heterogeneous land surfaces. Furthermore, we show that with the addition of an empirical function simulating the plants ability to regulate transpiration, and based on the same measurements of temperature and humidity, the method can produce reliable estimates of ET during both wet and dry conditions without compromising its parsimony.

  5. Neural network modeling of changes in the land cover of the Kerch peninsula in the context of landslides occurence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivoguz D.O.


    Full Text Available The modern development of the Kerch Peninsula is closely connected with the large-scale man-caused impact, which leads to significant changes in the functioning of natural complexes. The paper demonstrates the neural network approach to studying changes in the state of the landscape cover and attempts are made to predict it. The modeling was carried out on the basis of available data on various components of the environment of the Kerch Peninsula and the anthropogenic factors affecting them. The analysis showed significant changes in the landscape component of the peninsula, which could potentially lead to a deterioration in the situation with the manifestations of landslides.

  6. Mathematical Modelling of Optimization of Structures of Monolithic Coverings Based on Liquid Rubbers (United States)

    Turgumbayeva, R. Kh; Abdikarimov, M. N.; Mussabekov, R.; Sartayev, D. T.


    The paper considers optimization of monolithic coatings compositions using a computer and MPE methods. The goal of the paper was to construct a mathematical model of the complete factorial experiment taking into account its plan and conditions. Several regression equations were received. Dependence between content components and parameters of rubber, as well as the quantity of a rubber crumb, was considered. An optimal composition for manufacturing the material of monolithic coatings compositions was recommended based on experimental data.

  7. Urban slum structure: Integrating socioeconomic and land cover data to model slum evolution in Salvador, Brazil


    Hacker, KP; Seto, KC; Costa, F; Corburn, J; Reis, MG; Ko, AI; Diuk-Wasser, MA


    Abstract Background The expansion of urban slums is a key challenge for public and social policy in the 21st century. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of slum communities limits the use of rigid slum definitions. A systematic and flexible approach to characterize, delineate and model urban slum structure at an operational resolution is essential to plan, deploy, and monitor interventions at the local and national level. ...

  8. A jet-dominated model for a broad-band spectral energy distribution of the nearby low-luminosity active galactic nucleus in M94 (United States)

    van Oers, Pieter; Markoff, Sera; Uttley, Phil; McHardy, Ian; van der Laan, Tessel; Donovan Meyer, Jennifer; Connors, Riley


    We have compiled a new multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) for the closest obscured low-ionization emission-line region active galactic nucleus (AGN), NGC 4736, also known as M94. The SED comprises mainly high-resolution (mostly sub-arcsecond, or, at the distance to M94, ≲23 pc from the nucleus) observations from the literature, archival data, as well as previously unpublished sub-millimetre data from the Plateau de Bure Interferometer (PdBI) and the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy, in conjunction with new electronic MultiElement Radio Interferometric Network (e-MERLIN) L-band (1.5 GHz) observations. Thanks to the e-MERLIN resolution and sensitivity, we resolve for the first time a double structure composed of two radio sources separated by ˜1 arcsec, previously observed only at higher frequency. We explore this data set, which further includes non-simultaneous data from the Very Large Array, the Gemini telescope, the Hubble Space Telescope and the Chandra X-ray observatory, in terms of an outflow-dominated model. We compare our results with previous trends found for other AGN using the same model (NGC 4051, M81*, M87 and Sgr A*), as well as hard- and quiescent-state X-ray binaries. We find that the nuclear broad-band spectrum of M94 is consistent with a relativistic outflow of low inclination. The findings in this work add to the growing body of evidence that the physics of weakly accreting black holes scales with mass in a rather straightforward fashion.

  9. Predicting land use change on a broad area: Dyna-CLUE model application to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano (Campania, South Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Pindozzi


    Full Text Available The long-standing awareness of the environmental impact of land-use change (LUC has led scientific community to develop tools able to predict their amount and to evaluate their effect on environment, with the aim supporting policy makers in their planning activities. This paper proposes an implementation of the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model applied to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano, an area of Campania region, which needs interventions for environmental remediation. Future land use changes were simulated in two different scenarios developed under alternative strategies of land management: scenario 1 is a simple projection of the recent LUC trend, while scenario 2 hypothesises the introduction of no-food crops, such as poplar (Populus nigra L. and giant reed (Arundo donax L., in addition to a less impactful urban sprawl, which is one of the main issues in the study area. The overall duration of simulations was 13 years, subdivided into yearly time steps. CORINE land cover map of 2006 was used as baseline for land use change detection in the study area. Competition between different land use types is taken into account by setting the conversion elasticity, a parameter ranging from 0 to 1, according to their capital investment level. Location suitability for each land use type is based on logit model. Since no actual land use already exists for the alternative crops investigated in scenario 2, a suitability map realised through a spatial multicriteria decision analysis was used as a proxy for its land use pattern. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 1, evaluated through the application of Kappa statistics, showed a general tendency to expansion of built-up areas, with an increase of about 2400 ha (1.5% of the total surface, at the expense of agricultural land and those covered by natural vegetation. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 2 showed a less significant spread of built

  10. Modelling the effects of climate and land cover change on groundwater recharge in south-west Western Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Dawes


    Full Text Available The groundwater resource contained within the sandy aquifers of the Swan Coastal Plain, south-west Western Australia, provides approximately 60 percent of the drinking water for the metropolitan population of Perth. Rainfall decline over the past three decades coupled with increasing water demand from a growing population has resulted in falling dam storage and groundwater levels. Projected future changes in climate across south-west Western Australia consistently show a decline in annual rainfall of between 5 and 15 percent. There is expected to be a reduction of diffuse recharge across the Swan Coastal Plain. This study aims to quantify the change in groundwater recharge in response to a range of future climate and land cover patterns across south-west Western Australia.

    Modelling the impact on the groundwater resource of potential climate change was achieved with a dynamically linked unsaturated/saturated groundwater model. A vertical flux manager was used in the unsaturated zone to estimate groundwater recharge using a variety of simple and complex models based on climate, land cover type (e.g. native trees, plantation, cropping, urban, wetland, soil type, and taking into account the groundwater depth.

    In the area centred on the city of Perth, Western Australia, the patterns of recharge change and groundwater level change are not consistent spatially, or consistently downward. In areas with land-use change, recharge rates have increased. Where rainfall has declined sufficiently, recharge rates are decreasing, and where compensating factors combine, there is little change to recharge. In the southwestern part of the study area, the patterns of groundwater recharge are dictated primarily by soil, geology and land cover. In the sand-dominated areas, there is little response to future climate change, because groundwater levels are shallow and much rainfall is rejected recharge. Where the combination of native vegetation and

  11. Modeling biophysical properties of broad-leaved stands in the hyrcanian forests of Iran using fused airborne laser scanner data and ultraCam-D images (United States)

    Mohammadi, Jahangir; Shataee, Shaban; Namiranian, Manochehr; Næsset, Erik


    Inventories of mixed broad-leaved forests of Iran mainly rely on terrestrial measurements. Due to rapid changes and disturbances and great complexity of the silvicultural systems of these multilayer forests, frequent repetition of conventional ground-based plot surveys is often cost prohibitive. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and multispectral data offer an alternative or supplement to conventional inventories in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. In this study, the capability of a combination of ALS and UltraCam-D data to model stand volume, tree density, and basal area using random forest (RF) algorithm was evaluated. Systematic sampling was applied to collect field plot data on a 150 m × 200 m sampling grid within a 1100 ha study area located at 36°38‧- 36°42‧N and 54°24‧-54°25‧E. A total of 308 circular plots (0.1 ha) were measured for calculation of stand volume, tree density, and basal area per hectare. For each plot, a set of variables was extracted from both ALS and multispectral data. The RF algorithm was used for modeling of the biophysical properties using ALS and UltraCam-D data separately and combined. The results showed that combining the ALS data and UltraCam-D images provided a slight increase in prediction accuracy compared to separate modeling. The RMSE as percentage of the mean, the mean difference between observed and predicted values, and standard deviation of the differences using a combination of ALS data and UltraCam-D images in an independent validation at 0.1-ha plot level were 31.7%, 1.1%, and 84 m3 ha-1 for stand volume; 27.2%, 0.86%, and 6.5 m2 ha-1 for basal area, and 35.8%, -4.6%, and 77.9 n ha-1 for tree density, respectively. Based on the results, we conclude that fusion of ALS and UltraCam-D data may be useful for modeling of stand volume, basal area, and tree density and thus gain insights into structural characteristics in the complex Hyrcanian forests.

  12. Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. (United States)

    Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas


    Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright

  13. Land Use and Land Cover Changes under Climate Uncertainty: Modelling the Impacts on Hydropower Production in Western Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomon Obahoundje


    Full Text Available The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC. In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012–2040.

  14. Fourier evaluation of broad Moessbauer spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincze, I.


    It is shown by the Fourier analysis of broad Moessbauer spectra that the even part of the distribution of the dominant hyperfine interaction (hyperfine field or quadrupole splitting) can be obtained directly without using least-square fitting procedures. Also the odd part of this distribution correlated with other hyperfine parameters (e.g. isomer shift) can be directly determined. Examples covering the case of amorphous magnetic and paramagnetic iron-based alloys are presented. (author)

  15. Modelling land use/cover changes with markov-cellular automata in Komering Watershed, South Sumatera (United States)

    Kusratmoko, E.; Albertus, S. D. Y.; Supriatna


    This research has a purpose to study and develop a model that can representing and simulating spatial distribution pattern of land use change in Komering watershed. The Komering watershed is one of nine sub Musi river basin and is located in the southern part of Sumatra island that has an area of 8060,62 km2. Land use change simulations, achieved through Markov-cellular automata (CA) methodologies. Slope, elevation, distance from road, distance from river, distance from capital sub-district, distance from settlement area area were driving factors that used in this research. Land use prediction result in 2030 also shows decrease of forest acreage up to -3.37%, agricultural land decreased up to -2.13%, and open land decreased up to -0.13%. On the other hand settlement area increased up to 0.07%, and plantation land increased up to 5.56%. Based on the predictive result, land use unconformity percentage to RTRW in Komering watershed is 18.62 % and land use conformity is 58.27%. Based on the results of the scenario, where forest in protected areas and agriculture land are maintained, shows increase the land use conformity amounted to 60.41 % and reduce unconformity that occur in Komering watershed to 17.23 %.

  16. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad


    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  17. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H


    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  18. Influence of a dexamethasone-eluting covered stent on tissue reaction: an experimental study in a canine bronchial model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Ji Hoon; Song, Ho-Young; Choi, Gi Bok; Kim, Tae-Hyung; Suh, Ji-Yeon [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea); Seo, Tae-Seok [Gachon Medical School, Department of Radiology, Gil Medical Center, Inchon (Korea); Yuk, Soon Hong [Hannam University, Department of Polymer Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Daejeon (Korea); Kim, Young-Hwa [Soonchunhyang University Chonan Hospital, Department of Radiology, Chonan (Korea); Cho, Yong-Mee [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea)


    This study was designed to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a dexamethasone (DXM)-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent to reduce tissue reaction following stent placement in a canine bronchial model. We placed a DXM-eluting, polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (drug stent, DS) and a polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (control stent, CS) alternately in each left main bronchus and left lower lobe bronchus in 12 dogs. The stents were 20 mm in diameter and length when fully expanded. The dose of DXM was approximately 36.7 mg in each DS, but was absent in the CS. The dogs were euthanased 1 week (n=4), 2 weeks (n=4) or 4 weeks (n=4) after stent placement. Histologic findings, such as epithelial erosion/ulcer or granulation tissue thickness, were obtained from the mid-portion of the bronchus, where the stent had been placed, and evaluated between DS and CS. There were no procedure-related complications or malpositioning of any of the bronchial stents. Stent migration was detected in one dog just before euthanasia 1 week following stent placement. Stent patency was maintained until euthanasia in all dogs. Epithelial erosion/ulcer (%) was significantly less in the DS (mean{+-}standard deviation, 46.88{+-}23.75) than in the CS (73.75{+-}14.08) (P=0.026) for all time-points. There was a decrease in epithelial erosion/ulcer as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. The granulation tissue thickness (mm) was less in DS (2.63{+-}2.05) than in CS (3.49{+-}2.95), although the difference was not significant (P=0.751) for all time-points. There was a tendency toward an increase in granulation tissue thickness and chronic lymphocytic infiltration as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. In conclusion, DXM-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent seems to be effective in reducing tissue reaction secondary to stent placement in a canine bronchial model. (orig.)

  19. Influence of a dexamethasone-eluting covered stent on tissue reaction: an experimental study in a canine bronchial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Ji Hoon; Song, Ho-Young; Choi, Gi Bok; Kim, Tae-Hyung; Suh, Ji-Yeon; Seo, Tae-Seok; Yuk, Soon Hong; Kim, Young-Hwa; Cho, Yong-Mee


    This study was designed to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a dexamethasone (DXM)-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent to reduce tissue reaction following stent placement in a canine bronchial model. We placed a DXM-eluting, polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (drug stent, DS) and a polyurethane-covered, self-expanding metallic stent (control stent, CS) alternately in each left main bronchus and left lower lobe bronchus in 12 dogs. The stents were 20 mm in diameter and length when fully expanded. The dose of DXM was approximately 36.7 mg in each DS, but was absent in the CS. The dogs were euthanased 1 week (n=4), 2 weeks (n=4) or 4 weeks (n=4) after stent placement. Histologic findings, such as epithelial erosion/ulcer or granulation tissue thickness, were obtained from the mid-portion of the bronchus, where the stent had been placed, and evaluated between DS and CS. There were no procedure-related complications or malpositioning of any of the bronchial stents. Stent migration was detected in one dog just before euthanasia 1 week following stent placement. Stent patency was maintained until euthanasia in all dogs. Epithelial erosion/ulcer (%) was significantly less in the DS (mean±standard deviation, 46.88±23.75) than in the CS (73.75±14.08) (P=0.026) for all time-points. There was a decrease in epithelial erosion/ulcer as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. The granulation tissue thickness (mm) was less in DS (2.63±2.05) than in CS (3.49±2.95), although the difference was not significant (P=0.751) for all time-points. There was a tendency toward an increase in granulation tissue thickness and chronic lymphocytic infiltration as the follow-up period increased in both DS and CS. In conclusion, DXM-eluting, covered, self-expanding metallic stent seems to be effective in reducing tissue reaction secondary to stent placement in a canine bronchial model. (orig.)

  20. Modeling the long-term effect of winter cover crops on nitrate transport in artificially drained fields across the Midwest U.S. (United States)

    A fall-planted cover crop is a management practice with multiple benefits including reducing nitrate losses from artificially drained fields. We used the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) to simulate the impact of a cereal rye cover crop on reducing nitrate losses from drained fields across five...

  1. Adapting observationally based metrics of biogeophysical feedbacks from land cover/land use change to climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A


    To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)

  2. Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change. (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Eichenbaum, Markus Kalev; Simonovic, Slobodan P


    Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002-2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006-2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2090s (2091-2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. How reliable is the offline couple of WRF and VIC model? And how does high quality land cover data impact the VIC model simulation? (United States)

    Tang, C.; Dennis, R. L.


    First, the ability of the offline coupling of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological and climate variables was evaluated. The performance of the offline couple of WRF and VIC was assessed with respect to key simulated variables through a comparison with the calibrated VIC model simulation. A spatiotemporal comparison of the simulated evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow produced by the VIC calibrated run (base data) and by the offline coupling run was conducted. The results showed that the offline couple of VIC with WRF was able to achieve good agreement in the simulation of monthly and daily soil moisture, and monthly evaporation. This suggests the VIC coupling should function without causing a large change in the moisture budget. However, the offline coupling showed most disagreement in daily and monthly runoff, and baseflow which is related to errors in WRF precipitation. Second, the sensitivity of the VIC model to the land cover was assessed by performing a sensitivity simulation using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) instead of the older NLDAS/AVHRR data. Improved land cover is shown to achieve more accurate simulation of the streamflow.

  4. Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages (United States)

    Galbraith, Eric; de Lavergne, Casimir


    Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on the circulation of the deep ocean. Here we provide a broad view on the influences of CO2, orbital forcing and ice sheet size according to a comprehensive Earth system model, by integrating the model to equilibrium under 40 different combinations of the three external forcings. We find that the volume contribution of Antarctic (AABW) vs. North Atlantic (NADW) waters to the deep ocean varies widely among the simulations, and can be predicted from the difference between the surface densities at AABW and NADW deep water formation sites. Minima of both the AABW-NADW density difference and the AABW volume occur near interglacial CO2 (270-400 ppm). At low CO2, abundant formation and northward export of sea ice in the Southern Ocean contributes to very salty and dense Antarctic waters that dominate the global deep ocean. Furthermore, when the Earth is cold, low obliquity (i.e. a reduced tilt of Earth's rotational axis) enhances the Antarctic water volume by expanding sea ice further. At high CO2, AABW dominance is favoured due to relatively warm subpolar North Atlantic waters, with more dependence on precession. Meanwhile, a large Laurentide ice sheet steers atmospheric circulation as to strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but cools the Southern Ocean remotely, enhancing Antarctic sea ice export and leading to very salty and expanded AABW. Together, these results suggest that a `sweet spot' of low CO2, low obliquity and relatively small ice sheets would have poised the AMOC for interruption, promoting Dansgaard-Oeschger-type abrupt change. The deep ocean temperature and

  5. Global, Broad, or Specific Cognitive Differences? Using a MIMIC Model to Examine Differences in CHC Abilities in Children with Learning Disabilities (United States)

    Niileksela, Christopher R.; Reynolds, Matthew R.


    This study was designed to better understand the relations between learning disabilities and different levels of latent cognitive abilities, including general intelligence (g), broad cognitive abilities, and specific abilities based on the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory of intelligence (CHC theory). Data from the "Differential Ability…

  6. Modeling the effects of land cover and use on landscape capability for urban ungulate populations: Chapter 11 (United States)

    Underwood, Harold; Kilheffer, Chellby R.; Francis, Robert A.; Millington, James D. A.; Chadwick, Michael A.


    Expanding ungulate populations are causing concerns for wildlife professionals and residents in many urban areas worldwide. Nowhere is the phenomenon more apparent than in the eastern US, where urban white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations are increasing. Most habitat suitability models for deer have been developed in rural areas and across large (>1000 km2) spatial extents. Only recently have we begun to understand the factors that contribute to space use by deer over much smaller spatial extents. In this study, we explore the concepts, terminology, methodology and state-of-the-science in wildlife abundance modeling as applied to overabundant deer populations across heterogeneous urban landscapes. We used classified, high-resolution digital orthoimagery to extract landscape characteristics in several urban areas of upstate New York. In addition, we assessed deer abundance and distribution in 1-km2 blocks across each study area from either aerial surveys or ground-based distance sampling. We recorded the number of detections in each block and used binomial mixture models to explore important relationships between abundance and key landscape features. Finally, we cross-validated statistical models of abundance and compared covariate relationships across study sites. Study areas were characterized along a gradient of urbanization based on the proportions of impervious surfaces and natural vegetation which, based on the best-supported models, also distinguished blocks potentially occupied by deer. Models performed better at identifying occurrence of deer and worse at predicting abundance in cross-validation comparisons. We attribute poor predictive performance to differences in deer population trajectories over time. The proportion of impervious surfaces often yielded better predictions of abundance and occurrence than did the proportion of natural vegetation, which we attribute to a lack of certain land cover classes during cold and snowy winters

  7. Worldwide cloud cover model (United States)

    Smith, O. E.; Sommerville, P. N.


    Classifying worldwide cloudiness into homogeneous regions, using a satellite data set containing day IR, night IR, incoming, and absorbed solar radiation measurements on a 2.5-degree latitude-longitude grid is considered. Methods of analysis are presented.

  8. On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century (United States)

    Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.


    In 36 climate change simulations associated with phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), changes in marine low cloud cover (LCC) exhibit a large spread, and may be either positive or negative. Here we develop a heuristic model to understand the source of the spread. The model's premise is that simulated LCC changes can be interpreted as a linear combination of contributions from factors shaping the clouds' large-scale environment. We focus primarily on two factors—the strength of the inversion capping the atmospheric boundary layer (measured by the estimated inversion strength, EIS) and sea surface temperature (SST). For a given global model, the respective contributions of EIS and SST are computed. This is done by multiplying (1) the current-climate's sensitivity of LCC to EIS or SST variations, by (2) the climate-change signal in EIS or SST. The remaining LCC changes are then attributed to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and other environmental factors. The heuristic model is remarkably skillful. Its SST term dominates, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the intermodel variance of LCC changes in CMIP3 models, and about half in CMIP5 models. Of the two factors governing the SST term (the SST increase and the sensitivity of LCC to SST perturbations), the SST sensitivity drives the spread in the SST term and hence the spread in the overall LCC changes. This sensitivity varies a great deal from model to model and is strongly linked to the types of cloud and boundary layer parameterizations used in the models. EIS and SST sensitivities are also estimated using observational cloud and meteorological data. The observed sensitivities are generally consistent with the majority of models as well as expectations from prior research. Based on the observed sensitivities and the relative magnitudes of simulated EIS and SST changes (which we argue are also physically reasonable), the heuristic model predicts LCC

  9. Inconsistent Responses of Hot Extremes to Historical Land Use and Cover Change Among the Selected CMIP5 Models (United States)

    Li, Xing; Chen, Haishan; Wei, Jiangfeng; Hua, Wenjian; Sun, Shanlei; Ma, Hedi; Li, Xiao; Li, Jingping


    Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Previous studies have demonstrated that LUCC significantly impacts both mean and extreme temperatures. In this study, we explored the multimodel performance of simulating LUCC-induced asymmetric effects on the different percentiles of maximum temperatures (Tmax) as well as the possible reasons for these effects using results from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Four state-of-art Earth system models (which provide the necessary data) are selected for investigating this issue. In general, all the cases of the model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory show robust asymmetric responses between the 90th (TX90P) and 10th percentiles (TX10P) of Tmax, mainly due to cropland expansions, especially over India, the Sahel, and some parts of North America. However, weak and insignificant responses are shown for both the TX90P and TX10P in other models. The different changes in the Tmax variability among the models are primarily responsible for the occurrence of asymmetric features. Furthermore, by decomposing the Tmax changes over three typical regions, we analyze the potential causes for the inconsistencies among these models' results and find two crucial processes, that is, the repartitioning of the turbulent heat fluxes and the changes of the diurnal cycle variability due to LUCC. Whether these processes are pronounced determines the occurrence of the asymmetric Tmax responses. Overall, this study provides a critical clue for reducing the uncertainties of the LUCC effects on temperature extremes, which should be evaluated against observations.

  10. Change of Land Use/Cover in Tianjin City Based on the Markov and Cellular Automata Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruci Wang


    Full Text Available In recent years, urban areas have been expanding rapidly in the world, especially in developing countries. With this rapid urban growth, several environmental and social problems have appeared. Better understanding of land use and land cover (LULC change will facilitate urban planning and constrain these potential problems. As one of the four municipalities in China, Tianjin has experienced rapid urbanization and such trend is expected to continue. Relying on remote sensing (RS and geographical information system (GIS tools, this study investigates LULC change in Tianjin city. First, we used RS to generate classification maps for 1995, 2005, and 2015. Then, simulation models were applied to evaluate the LULC changes. Analysis of the 1995, 2005, and 2015 LULC maps shows that more than 10% of the cropland areas were transformed into built-up areas. Finally, by employing the Markov model and cellular automata (CA model, the LULC in 2025 and 2035 were simulated and forecasted. Our analysis contributes to the understanding of the development process in the Tianjin area, which will facilitate future planning, as well as constraining the potential negative consequences brought by future LULC changes.

  11. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit


    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  12. Integrating Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics into State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Land Use/Land Cover Change (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Fortin, M. J.


    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general approach for incorporating uncertainty into forecasts of landscape change. Using a Monte Carlo approach, STSMs generate spatially-explicit projections of the state of a landscape based upon probabilistic transitions defined between states. While STSMs are based on the basic principles of Markov chains, they have additional properties that make them applicable to a wide range of questions and types of landscapes. A current limitation of STSMs is that they are only able to track the fate of discrete state variables, such as land use/land cover (LULC) classes. There are some landscape modelling questions, however, for which continuous state variables - for example carbon biomass - are also required. Here we present a new approach for integrating continuous state variables into spatially-explicit STSMs. Specifically we allow any number of continuous state variables to be defined for each spatial cell in our simulations; the value of each continuous variable is then simulated forward in discrete time as a stochastic process based upon defined rates of change between variables. These rates can be defined as a function of the realized states and transitions of each cell in the STSM, thus providing a connection between the continuous variables and the dynamics of the landscape. We demonstrate this new approach by (1) developing a simple IPCC Tier 3 compliant model of ecosystem carbon biomass, where the continuous state variables are defined as terrestrial carbon biomass pools and the rates of change as carbon fluxes between pools, and (2) integrating this carbon model with an existing LULC change model for the state of Hawaii, USA.

  13. Characterization and modeling of broad spectrum InAs-GaAs quantum-dot superluminescent diodes emitting at 1.2-1.3 μm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossetti, M.; Li, L.; Markus, A.; Fiore, A.; Occhi, L.; Velez, C.; Mikhrin, S.; Krestnikov, I.; Kovsh, A.


    High-power broadband superluminescent diodes (SLDs) emitting in the 1.2-1.3-?m region are demonstrated using InAs-GaAs quantum dots (QDs). The highest output powers of ?30-50 mW are achieved using 18 QD layers with p-doped GaAs spacers. At these high powers the device operates in a regime of broad

  14. Broad band exciplex dye lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dienes, A.; Shank, C.V.; Trozzolo, A.M.


    The disclosure is concerned with exciplex dye lasers, i.e., lasers in which the emitting species is a complex formed only from a constituent in an electronically excited state. Noting that an exciplex laser, favorable from the standpoint of broad tunability, results from a broad shift in the peak emission wavelength for the exciplex relative to the unreacted species, a desirable class resulting in such broad shift is described. Preferred classes of laser media utilizing specified resonant molecules are set forth. (auth)

  15. Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi


    Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)

  16. Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC) (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.


    The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

  17. Data mining and model adaptation for the land use and land cover classification of a Worldview 2 image (United States)

    Nascimento, L. C.; Cruz, C. B. M.; Souza, E. M. F. R.


    Forest fragmentation studies have increased since the last 3 decades. Land use and land cover maps (LULC) are important tools for this analysis, as well as other remote sensing techniques. The object oriented analysis classifies the image according to patterns as texture, color, shape, and context. However, there are many attributes to be analyzed, and data mining tools helped us to learn about them and to choose the best ones. In this way, the aim of this paper is to describe data mining techniques and results of a heterogeneous area, as the municipality of Silva Jardim, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The municipality has forest, urban areas, pastures, water bodies, agriculture and also some shadows as objects to be represented. Worldview 2 satellite image from 2010 was used and LULC classification was processed using the values that data mining software has provided according to the J48 method. Afterwards, this classification was analyzed, and the verification was made by the confusion matrix, being possible to evaluate the accuracy (58,89%). The best results were in classes "water" and "forest" which have more homogenous reflectance. Because of that, the model has been adapted, in order to create a model for the most homogeneous classes. As result, 2 new classes were created, some values and some attributes changed, and others added. In the end, the accuracy was 89,33%. It is important to highlight this is not a conclusive paper; there are still many steps to develop in highly heterogeneous surfaces.

  18. Sganzerla Cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor da Rosa


    Full Text Available Neste artigo, realizo uma leitura do cinema de Rogério Sganzerla, desde o clássico O bandido da luz vermelha até os documentários filmados na década de oitenta, a partir de duas noções centrais: cover e over. Para isso, parto de uma controvérsia com o ensaio de Ismail Xavier, Alegorias do subdesenvolvimento, em que o crítico realiza uma leitura do cinema brasileiro da década de sessenta através do conceito de alegoria; depois releio uma série de textos críticos do próprio Sganzerla, publicados em Edifício Sganzerla, procurando repensar as ideias de “herói vazio” ou “cinema impuro” e sugerindo assim uma nova relação do seu cinema com o tempo e a representação; então busco articular tais ideias com certos procedimentos de vanguarda, como a falsificação, a cópia, o clichê e a colagem; e finalmente procuro mostrar que, no cinema de Sganzerla, a partir principalmente de suas reflexões sobre Orson Welles, a voz é usada de maneira a deformar a interpretação naturalista.

  19. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/41327697X; Mclennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.


    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for

  20. Assimilation of snow cover and snow depth into a snow model to estimate snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. Stigter


    Full Text Available Snow is an important component of water storage in the Himalayas. Previous snowmelt studies in the Himalayas have predominantly relied on remotely sensed snow cover. However, snow cover data provide no direct information on the actual amount of water stored in a snowpack, i.e., the snow water equivalent (SWE. Therefore, in this study remotely sensed snow cover was combined with in situ observations and a modified version of the seNorge snow model to estimate (climate sensitivity of SWE and snowmelt runoff in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. Snow cover data from Landsat 8 and the MOD10A2 snow cover product were validated with in situ snow cover observations provided by surface temperature and snow depth measurements resulting in classification accuracies of 85.7 and 83.1 % respectively. Optimal model parameter values were obtained through data assimilation of MOD10A2 snow maps and snow depth measurements using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF. Independent validations of simulated snow depth and snow cover with observations show improvement after data assimilation compared to simulations without data assimilation. The approach of modeling snow depth in a Kalman filter framework allows for data-constrained estimation of snow depth rather than snow cover alone, and this has great potential for future studies in complex terrain, especially in the Himalayas. Climate sensitivity tests with the optimized snow model revealed that snowmelt runoff increases in winter and the early melt season (December to May and decreases during the late melt season (June to September as a result of the earlier onset of snowmelt due to increasing temperature. At high elevation a decrease in SWE due to higher air temperature is (partly compensated by an increase in precipitation, which emphasizes the need for accurate predictions on the changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation along with changes in temperature.

  1. Cloud Cover (United States)

    Schaffhauser, Dian


    This article features a major statewide initiative in North Carolina that is showing how a consortium model can minimize risks for districts and help them exploit the advantages of cloud computing. Edgecombe County Public Schools in Tarboro, North Carolina, intends to exploit a major cloud initiative being refined in the state and involving every…

  2. Modeling of tropospheric NO2 column over different climatic zones and land use/land cover types in South Asia (United States)

    ul-Haq, Zia; Rana, Asim Daud; Tariq, Salman; Mahmood, Khalid; Ali, Muhammad; Bashir, Iqra


    We have applied regression analyses for the modeling of tropospheric NO2 (tropo-NO2) as the function of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and some important meteorological parameters such as temperature (Temp), precipitation (Preci), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), cloud fraction (CLF) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over different climatic zones and land use/land cover types in South Asia during October 2004-December 2015. Simple linear regression shows that, over South Asia, tropo-NO2 variability is significantly linked to AOD, WS, NOx, Preci and CLF. Also zone-5, consisting of tropical monsoon areas of eastern India and Myanmar, is the only study zone over which all the selected parameters show their influence on tropo-NO2 at statistical significance levels. In stepwise multiple linear modeling, tropo-NO2 column over landmass of South Asia, is significantly predicted by the combination of RH (standardized regression coefficient, β = - 49), AOD (β = 0.42) and NOx (β = 0.25). The leading predictors of tropo-NO2 columns over zones 1-5 are OLR, AOD, Temp, OLR, and RH respectively. Overall, as revealed by the higher correlation coefficients (r), the multiple regressions provide reasonable models for tropo-NO2 over South Asia (r = 0.82), zone-4 (r = 0.90) and zone-5 (r = 0.93). The lowest r (of 0.66) has been found for hot semi-arid region in northwestern Indus-Ganges Basin (zone-2). The highest value of β for urban area AOD (of 0.42) is observed for megacity Lahore, located in warm semi-arid zone-2 with large scale crop-residue burning, indicating strong influence of aerosols on the modeled tropo-NO2 column. A statistical significant correlation (r = 0.22) at the 0.05 level is found between tropo-NO2 and AOD over Lahore. Also NOx emissions appear as the highest contributor (β = 0.59) for modeled tropo-NO2 column over megacity Dhaka.

  3. Analysis of land cover change impact on flood events using remote sensing, GIS and hydrological models: a case study of the Nyando River Basin in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olang, L. O.


    In this study, land cover changes in the Nyando River basin (3500 km 2 ) of Kenya were analyzed and their impact of floods quantified. Three Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1986 and 2000 were acquired, processed and classified based on seven major land cover classes prevalent in the basin using a hybrid of supervised and non supervised classification procedures. The detected land cover changes, together with a DEM and a soil map of the basin, were then used to estimate physically based parameters for the selected hydrological models. The models were then used to estimate local and flood peak discharges and volumes arising from selected storm events for each state of the classified land cover dataset. To further understand how changes in the land cover may impact on the flood hydrology, three scenarios that represent quite extreme alternatives were formulated to study the possible bandwidth during floods. Land cover classification results revealed immense land degradation over the span of study. Forests reduced by an area of 488 km 2 representing a 20% decline, while agricultural fields expanded by 581 km 2 representing a 16% increase over the same period of time (1973-2000). Hydrological modeling results indicated that the basin underwent significant increase in the peak discharge value. The flood peak discharges in the whole basin were noted to have increased by at least 16% over the period of 1973 -2000.Flood volumes were also noted to have increased by at least 10% over the same period of time. (author) [de


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fethi Ahmet YÜKSEL


    Full Text Available In this study, a new method is presented for the determination of the covered vertical discontinuous whose effects can not be observed in the Bouguer's gravity anomaly map of Istanbul-Silivri region. This method is based on the second vertical derivative values as well as cross-correlation between the second derivative values for a theoretical vertical discontinuous model. The maximum or minimum values of cross-correlation function takes place on the origin points of vertical discontinuity. The proposed method is applied to modelling of covered lineament structure of Silivri region after the method is tested for one and two dimensional theoretical models.

  5. Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Yi, S.; Li, N.; Xiang, B.; Wang, X.; Ye, B.; McGuire, A.D.


    Soil surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to

  6. Conserved synthetic peptides from the hemagglutinin of influenza viruses induce broad humoral and T-cell responses in a pig model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlia Vergara-Alert

    Full Text Available Outbreaks involving either H5N1 or H1N1 influenza viruses (IV have recently become an increasing threat to cause potential pandemics. Pigs have an important role in this aspect. As reflected in the 2009 human H1N1 pandemia, they may act as a vehicle for mixing and generating new assortments of viruses potentially pathogenic to animals and humans. Lack of universal vaccines against the highly variable influenza virus forces scientists to continuously design vaccines à la carte, which is an expensive and risky practice overall when dealing with virulent strains. Therefore, we focused our efforts on developing a broadly protective influenza vaccine based on the Informational Spectrum Method (ISM. This theoretical prediction allows the selection of highly conserved peptide sequences from within the hemagglutinin subunit 1 protein (HA1 from either H5 or H1 viruses which are located in the flanking region of the HA binding site and with the potential to elicit broader immune responses than conventional vaccines. Confirming the theoretical predictions, immunization of conventional farm pigs with the synthetic peptides induced humoral responses in every single pig. The fact that the induced antibodies were able to recognize in vitro heterologous influenza viruses such as the pandemic H1N1 virus (pH1N1, two swine influenza field isolates (SwH1N1 and SwH3N2 and a H5N1 highly pathogenic avian virus, confirm the broad recognition of the antibodies induced. Unexpectedly, all pigs also showed T-cell responses that not only recognized the specific peptides, but also the pH1N1 virus. Finally, a partial effect on the kinetics of virus clearance was observed after the intranasal infection with the pH1N1 virus, setting forth the groundwork for the design of peptide-based vaccines against influenza viruses. Further insights into the understanding of the mechanisms involved in the protection afforded will be necessary to optimize future vaccine formulations.

  7. Monitoring and Modeling of Spatiotemporal Urban Expansion and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Using Integrated Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhagawat Rimal


    Full Text Available Spatial–temporal analysis of land-use/land-cover (LULC change as well as the monitoring and modeling of urban expansion are essential for the planning and management of urban environments. Such environments reflect the economic conditions and quality of life of the individual country. Urbanization is generally influenced by national laws, plans and policies and by power, politics and poor governance in many less-developed countries. Remote sensing tools play a vital role in monitoring LULC change and measuring the rate of urbanization at both the local and global levels. The current study evaluated the LULC changes and urban expansion of Jhapa district of Nepal. The spatial–temporal dynamics of LULC were identified using six time-series atmospherically-corrected surface reflectance Landsat images from 1989 to 2016. A hybrid cellular automata Markov chain (CA–Markov model was used to simulate future urbanization by 2026 and 2036. The analysis shows that the urban area has increased markedly and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future, whereas the area for agriculture has decreased. Meanwhile, forest and shrub areas have remained almost constant. Seasonal rainfall and flooding routinely cause predictable transformation of sand, water bodies and cultivated land from one type to another. The results suggest that the use of Landsat time-series archive images and the CA–Markov model are the best options for long-term spatiotemporal analysis and achieving an acceptable level of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the relationship between the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and LULC change and simulating future landscape change is essential, as they are closely interlinked. These scientific findings of past, present and future land-cover scenarios of the study area will assist planners/decision-makers to formulate sustainable urban development and environmental protection plans and will remain a scientific asset

  8. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage


    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal (United States)

    Dieye, A.M.; Roy, David P.; Hanan, N.P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Toure, A.


    Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

  10. Approaching to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetable covers of Colombia in a possible climatic change using SIG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez Rey, Hilda Jeanneth


    This technical paper summarizes the gradual thesis Approach to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetation covers in Colombia in face of a possible global climate change (Gutierrez, 2001). It present the methodologies and results of the construction of a prospective model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) for evaluating the vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia, in face of a possible global climate chance. The analysis of the vulnerability of the possible impact on vegetation and for identification of its vulnerability as a consequence of climate change was carried out by application of the method of direct function establishing, recommended by IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). An analysis of the displacement of Life Zones of Holdridge was made under a scenario with duplication of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and identified vegetation affected by displacement. These results were adjusted to the bioclimatic and biogeographic conditions of the country. The Model of Vulnerability of the Vegetation Covers of Colombia was developed in Spatial Modeler Language, of Arc/lnfo and Erdas Imagine. This model is able to generate the spatial distribution of the climatic variables and Bioclimatic Units, under past, present and future climate scenarios, as well as to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia in face a climatic change. For the improvement of the model of Vulnerability, specially the intermediate products, it was subdivided in three Phases or Subsystems: In the First Phase or Present Subsystem, the sub models generate a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a currently scenario of Climatic Line Base 1961-1990. In the Second Phase or Subsystem of Climate Change, the sub models develop a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a future climate Scenario with duplication of the contained of the CO 2 in the atmosphere

  11. Evaluating land cover influences on model uncertainties—A case study of cropland carbon dynamics in the Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign region (United States)

    Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Shuguang; Zhang, Xuesong; West, Tristram O.; Ogle, Stephen M.; Zhou, Naijun


    Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks and their uncertainties across agriculture-dominated areas remains challenging for understanding regional carbon cycles. Characteristics of local land cover inputs could impact the regional carbon estimates but the effect has not been fully evaluated in the past. Within the North American Carbon Program Mid-Continent Intensive (MCI) Campaign, three models were developed to estimate carbon fluxes on croplands: an inventory-based model, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, and the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) model. They all provided estimates of three major carbon fluxes on cropland: net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and soil organic carbon (SOC) change. Using data mining and spatial statistics, we studied the spatial distribution of the carbon fluxes uncertainties and the relationships between the uncertainties and the land cover characteristics. Results indicated that uncertainties for all three carbon fluxes were not randomly distributed, but instead formed multiple clusters within the MCI region. We investigated the impacts of three land cover characteristics on the fluxes uncertainties: cropland percentage, cropland richness and cropland diversity. The results indicated that cropland percentage significantly influenced the uncertainties of NPP and NEP, but not on the uncertainties of SOC change. Greater uncertainties of NPP and NEP were found in counties with small cropland percentage than the counties with large cropland percentage. Cropland species richness and diversity also showed negative correlations with the model uncertainties. Our study demonstrated that the land cover characteristics contributed to the uncertainties of regional carbon fluxes estimates. The approaches we used in this study can be applied to other ecosystem models to identify the areas with high uncertainties and where models can be improved to

  12. The use of artificial neural networks for mathematical modeling of the effect of composition and production conditions on the properties of PVC floor coverings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Rajko M.


    Full Text Available The application of PVC floor coverings is strongly connected with their end-use properties, which depend on the composition and processing conditions. It is very difficult to estimate the proper influence of the production parameters on the characteristics of PVC floor coverings due to their complex composition and various preparation procedures. The effect of different processing variables (such as time of bowling, temperature of bowling and composition of PVC plastisol on the mechanical properties of PVC floor coverings was investigated. The influence of different input parameters on the mechanical properties was successfully determined using an artificial neural network with an optimized number of hidden neurons. The Garson and Yoon models were applied to calculate and describe the variable contributions in the artificial neural networks. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 45022

  13. Cover times of random searches (United States)

    Chupeau, Marie; Bénichou, Olivier; Voituriez, Raphaël


    How long must one undertake a random search to visit all sites of a given domain? This time, known as the cover time, is a key observable to quantify the efficiency of exhaustive searches, which require a complete exploration of an area and not only the discovery of a single target. Examples range from immune-system cells chasing pathogens to animals harvesting resources, from robotic exploration for cleaning or demining to the task of improving search algorithms. Despite its broad relevance, the cover time has remained elusive and so far explicit results have been scarce and mostly limited to regular random walks. Here we determine the full distribution of the cover time for a broad range of random search processes, including Lévy strategies, intermittent strategies, persistent random walks and random walks on complex networks, and reveal its universal features. We show that for all these examples the mean cover time can be minimized, and that the corresponding optimal strategies also minimize the mean search time for a single target, unambiguously pointing towards their robustness.

  14. Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) (United States)

    Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.


    For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Bernales


    Full Text Available The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC and land surface temperature (LST. Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric “Effective mesh size” was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.

  16. Microsatellite diversity and broad scale geographic structure in a model legume: building a set of nested core collection for studying naturally occurring variation in Medicago truncatula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ronfort, Joelle; Bataillon, Thomas; Santoni, Sylvain


    at representing the genetic diversity of this species with a minimum of repetitiveness. We investigate the patterns of genetic diversity and population structure in a collection of 346 inbred lines representing the breadth of naturally occurring diversity in the Legume plant model Medicago truncatula using 13...... of inbred lines and the core collections are publicly available and will help coordinating efforts for the study of naturally occurring variation in the growing Medicago truncatula community....

  17. Estimating Poromechanical and Hydraulic Properties of Fractured Media Aquifers Using a Model of the Aquifer at Ploemeur France: Broad Applications and Future Uses (United States)

    Wilson, M. W.; Burbey, T. J.


    Aquifers in fractured crystalline bedrock are located over half of the earth's surface and are vital civil and economic resources particularly in places where ample, safe surface water is not available. With fractured media aquifers providing large percentages of water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural use in many regions of the world. Distinguishing sustainable quantities of extraction is of paramount importance to the continuing viability of these important resources and the communities they serve. The fractured and faulted crystalline-rock aquifer system supporting the community of Ploemeur France has been providing one million cubic meters of water annually, resulting in a modest long-term drawdown of about 15m. To understand the sources and mechanisms of recharge that support this aquifer system, a three-dimensional ABAQUS model was developed using known geologic, water-level and geodetic (tiltmeters and GPS) data to simulate the natural aquifer system that is dominated by a permeable sub-vertical fault and an intersecting semi-horizontal contact zone. The model is used to constrain the poromechanical properties of the fault and contact zones relative to the host crystalline rocks and overlying saprolite by taking advantage of the tilt and seasonal GPS responses caused by municipal pumping along with water-level data for the area. A chief goal in this modeling effort is to assess the sources of recharge to this aquifer system that is atypically productive for a crystalline-rock setting. Preliminary results suggest that the source of water supplying this community is a combination of rapid localized recharge through the saprolite and fault zone and recharge along the contact zone, both from the north (older water) and where it is exposed to the south (younger water). The modeling effort also shows the importance of combining GPS and surface tiltmeter data with water-level measurements for constraining the properties of this complex aquifer system and

  18. Broad Bandwidth or High Fidelity? Evidence from the Structure of Genetic and Environmental Effects on the Facets of the Five Factor Model (United States)

    Briley, Daniel A.; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.


    The Five Factor Model (FFM) of personality is well-established at the phenotypic level, but much less is known about the coherence of the genetic and environmental influences within each personality domain. Univariate behavioral genetic analyses have consistently found the influence of additive genes and nonshared environment on multiple personality facets, but the extent to which genetic and environmental influences on specific facets reflect more general influences on higher order factors is less clear. We applied a multivariate quantitative-genetic approach to scores on the CPI-Big Five facets for 490 monozygotic and 317 dizygotic twins who took part in the National Merit Twin Study. Our results revealed a complex genetic structure for facets composing all five factors, with both domain-general and facet-specific genetic and environmental influences. Models that required common genetic and environmental influences on each facet to occur by way of effects on a higher order trait did not fit as well as models allowing for common genetic and environmental effects to act directly on the facets for three of the Big Five domains. These results add to the growing body of literature indicating that important variation in personality occurs at the facet level which may be overshadowed by aggregating to the trait level. Research at the facet level, rather than the factor level, is likely to have pragmatic advantages in future research on the genetics of personality. PMID:22695681

  19. Land Cover - Minnesota Land Cover Classification System (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Land cover data set based on the Minnesota Land Cover Classification System (MLCCS) coding scheme. This data was produced using a combination of aerial photograph...

  20. Effect of land cover on atmospheric processes and air quality over the continental United States – a NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Tao


    Full Text Available The land surface plays a crucial role in regulating water and energy fluxes at the land–atmosphere (L–A interface and controls many processes and feedbacks in the climate system. Land cover and vegetation type remains one key determinant of soil moisture content that impacts air temperature, planetary boundary layer (PBL evolution, and precipitation through soil-moisture–evapotranspiration coupling. In turn, it will affect atmospheric chemistry and air quality. This paper presents the results of a modeling study of the effect of land cover on some key L–A processes with a focus on air quality. The newly developed NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NU-WRF modeling system couples NASA's Land Information System (LIS with the community WRF model and allows users to explore the L–A processes and feedbacks. Three commonly used satellite-derived land cover datasets – i.e., from the US Geological Survey (USGS and University of Maryland (UMD, which are based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR, and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS – bear large differences in agriculture, forest, grassland, and urban spatial distributions in the continental United States, and thus provide an excellent case to investigate how land cover change would impact atmospheric processes and air quality. The weeklong simulations demonstrate the noticeable differences in soil moisture/temperature, latent/sensible heat flux, PBL height, wind, NO2/ozone, and PM2.5 air quality. These discrepancies can be traced to associate with the land cover properties, e.g., stomatal resistance, albedo and emissivity, and roughness characteristics. It also implies that the rapid urban growth may have complex air quality implications with reductions in peak ozone but more frequent high ozone events.

  1. Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China (United States)

    Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping


    The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

  2. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.


    We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

  3. The STAGGER-grid: A grid of 3D stellar atmosphere models. V. Synthetic stellar spectra and broad-band photometry (United States)

    Chiavassa, A.; Casagrande, L.; Collet, R.; Magic, Z.; Bigot, L.; Thévenin, F.; Asplund, M.


    Context. The surface structures and dynamics of cool stars are characterised by the presence of convective motions and turbulent flows which shape the emergent spectrum. Aims: We used realistic three-dimensional (3D) radiative hydrodynamical simulations from the STAGGER-grid to calculate synthetic spectra with the radiative transfer code OPTIM3D for stars with different stellar parameters to predict photometric colours and convective velocity shifts. Methods: We calculated spectra from 1000 to 200 000 Å with a constant resolving power of λ/Δλ = 20 000 and from 8470 and 8710 Å (Gaia Radial Velocity Spectrometer - RVS - spectral range) with a constant resolving power of λ/Δλ = 300 000. Results: We used synthetic spectra to compute theoretical colours in the Johnson-Cousins UBV (RI)C, SDSS, 2MASS, Gaia, SkyMapper, Strömgren systems, and HST-WFC3. Our synthetic magnitudes are compared with those obtained using 1D hydrostatic models. We showed that 1D versus 3D differences are limited to a small percent except for the narrow filters that span the optical and UV region of the spectrum. In addition, we derived the effect of the convective velocity fields on selected Fe I lines. We found the overall convective shift for 3D simulations with respect to the reference 1D hydrostatic models, revealing line shifts of between -0.235 and +0.361 km s-1. We showed a net correlation of the convective shifts with the effective temperature: lower effective temperatures denote redshifts and higher effective temperatures denote blueshifts. We conclude that the extraction of accurate radial velocities from RVS spectra need an appropriate wavelength correction from convection shifts. Conclusions: The use of realistic 3D hydrodynamical stellar atmosphere simulations has a small but significant impact on the predicted photometry compared with classical 1D hydrostatic models for late-type stars. We make all the spectra publicly available for the community through the POLLUX database

  4. Immunization with Clinical HIV-1 Env Proteins Induces Broad Antibody Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity-Mediating Antibodies in a Rabbit Vaccination Model. (United States)

    Karlsson, Ingrid; Borggren, Marie; Jensen, Sanne Skov; Heyndrickx, Leo; Stewart-Jones, Guillaume; Scarlatti, Gabriella; Fomsgaard, Anders


    The induction of both neutralizing antibodies and non-neutralizing antibodies with effector functions, for example, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), is desired in the search for effective vaccines against HIV-1. In the pursuit of novel immunogens capable of inducing an efficient antibody response, rabbits were immunized with selected antigens using different prime-boost strategies. We immunized 35 different groups of rabbits with Env antigens from clinical HIV-1 subtypes A and B, including immunization with DNA alone, protein alone, and DNA prime with protein boost. The rabbit sera were screened for ADCC activity using a GranToxiLux-based assay with human peripheral blood mononuclear cells as effector cells and CEM.NKR CCR5 cells coated with HIV-1 envelope as target cells. The groups with the highest ADCC activity were further characterized for cross-reactivity between HIV-1 subtypes. The immunogen inducing the most potent and broadest ADCC response was a trimeric gp140. The ADCC activity was highest against the HIV-1 subtype corresponding to the immunogen. The ADCC activity did not necessarily reflect neutralizing activity in the pseudovirus-TZMbl assay, but there was an overall correlation between the two antiviral activities. We present a rabbit vaccination model and an assay suitable for screening HIV-1 vaccine candidates for the induction of ADCC-mediating antibodies in addition to neutralizing antibodies. The antigens and/or immunization strategies capable of inducing antibodies with ADCC activity did not necessarily induce neutralizing activity and vice versa. Nevertheless, we identified vaccine candidates that were able to concurrently induce both types of responses and that had ADCC activity that was cross-reactive between different subtypes. When searching for an effective vaccine candidate, it is important to evaluate the antibody response using a model and an assay measuring the desired function.

  5. A resistance representation of schemes for evaporation from bare and partly plant-covered surfaces for use in atmospheric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mihailovic, D.T.; Pielke, R.A.; Rajkovic, B.; Lee, T.J.; Jeftic, M. (Novi Sad Univ. (Yugoslavia) Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins (United States) Belgrade Univ. (Yugoslavia))


    In the parameterization of land surface processes, attention must be devoted to surface evaporation, one of the main processes in the air-land energy exchange. One of the most used approaches is the resistance representation which requires the calculation of aerodynamic resistances. These resistances are calculated using K theory for different morphologies of plant communities; then, the performance of the evaporation schemes within the alpha, beta, and their combination approaches that parameterize evaporation from bare and partly plant-covered soil surfaces are discussed. Additionally, a new alpha scheme is proposed based on an assumed power dependence alpha on volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value. Finally, the performance of the considered and the proposed schemes is tested based on time integrations using real data. The first set was for 4 June 1982, and the second for 3 June 1981 at the experimental site in Rimski Sancevi, Yugoslavia, on chernozem soil, as representative for a bare, and partly plant-covered surface, respectively. 63 refs.

  6. Structure and dynamics of alpha-tocopherol in model membranes and in solution: a broad-line and high-resolution NMR study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekiel, I.H.; Hughes, L.; Burton, G.W.; Jovall, P.A.; Ingold, K.U.; Smith, I.C.


    Nuclear magnetic resonance has been applied to study the conformational dynamics of alpha-tocopherol (vitamin E) in solution and in model membranes. In nonviscous solution, 1 H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) showed that alpha-tocopherol is in rapid equilibrium between two or more puckered conformers of its heterocyclic ring. The most likely conformers to be so involved are the two half-chair forms. Deuterium NMR spectra of specifically deuteriated alpha-tocopherol in multilamellar dispersions of egg phosphatidylcholine, measured in the liquid-crystalline state, were characteristic of axially symmetric motional averaging. The orientation of the rotational axis within the molecular framework was determined. Studies on oriented multilamellar membranes revealed that this axis is perpendicular to the surface of the membrane. The profile of quadrupolar splittings along the hydrophobic tail does not have a plateau, in contrast to that of the fatty acyl chains of the membrane lipids. Longitudinal relaxation times (T1) were short. The presence of a minimum in their temperature dependence shows that molecular motion with an effective correlation time tau eff approximately equal to 3 X 10(-9)s is responsible for relaxation. However, the temperatures and absolute values of the minima depend on the position of the deuterium in the molecule, demonstrating that tau eff represents a complex blend of motions

  7. Broad line regions in Seyfert-1 galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groningen, E. van.


    To reproduce observed emission profiles of Seyfert galaxies, rotation in an accretion disk has been proposed. In this thesis, the profiles emitted by such an accretion disk are investigated. Detailed comparison with the observed profiles yields that a considerable fraction can be fitted with a power-law function, as predicted by the model. The author analyzes a series of high quality spectra of Seyfert galaxies, obtained with the 2.5m telescope at Las Campanas. He presents detailed analyses of two objects: Mkn335 and Akn120. In both cases, strong evidence is presented for the presence of two separate broad line zones. These zones are identified with an accretion disk and an outflowing wind. The disk contains gas with very high densities and emits predominantly the lower ionization lines. He reports on the discovery of very broad wings beneath the strong forbidden line 5007. (Auth.)

  8. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis (United States)

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow


    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  9. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.


    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  10. A Mixed-Methods Trial of Broad Band Noise and Nature Sounds for Tinnitus Therapy: Group and Individual Responses Modeled under the Adaptation Level Theory of Tinnitus. (United States)

    Durai, Mithila; Searchfield, Grant D


    Objectives: A randomized cross-over trial in 18 participants tested the hypothesis that nature sounds, with unpredictable temporal characteristics and high valence would yield greater improvement in tinnitus than constant, emotionally neutral broadband noise. Study Design: The primary outcome measure was the Tinnitus Functional Index (TFI). Secondary measures were: loudness and annoyance ratings, loudness level matches, minimum masking levels, positive and negative emotionality, attention reaction and discrimination time, anxiety, depression and stress. Each sound was administered using MP3 players with earbuds for 8 continuous weeks, with a 3 week wash-out period before crossing over to the other treatment sound. Measurements were undertaken for each arm at sound fitting, 4 and 8 weeks after administration. Qualitative interviews were conducted at each of these appointments. Results: From a baseline TFI score of 41.3, sound therapy resulted in TFI scores at 8 weeks of 35.6; broadband noise resulted in significantly greater reduction (8.2 points) after 8 weeks of sound therapy use than nature sounds (3.2 points). The positive effect of sound on tinnitus was supported by secondary outcome measures of tinnitus, emotion, attention, and psychological state, but not interviews. Tinnitus loudness level match was higher for BBN at 8 weeks; while there was little change in loudness level matches for nature sounds. There was no change in minimum masking levels following sound therapy administration. Self-reported preference for one sound over another did not correlate with changes in tinnitus. Conclusions: Modeled under an adaptation level theory framework of tinnitus perception, the results indicate that the introduction of broadband noise shifts internal adaptation level weighting away from the tinnitus signal, reducing tinnitus magnitude. Nature sounds may modify the affective components of tinnitus via a secondary, residual pathway, but this appears to be less important

  11. Performance of complex snow cover descriptions in a distributed hydrological model system: A case study for the high Alpine terrain of the Berchtesgaden Alps. (United States)

    Warscher, M; Strasser, U; Kraller, G; Marke, T; Franz, H; Kunstmann, H


    [1] Runoff generation in Alpine regions is typically affected by snow processes. Snow accumulation, storage, redistribution, and ablation control the availability of water. In this study, several robust parameterizations describing snow processes in Alpine environments were implemented in a fully distributed, physically based hydrological model. Snow cover development is simulated using different methods from a simple temperature index approach, followed by an energy balance scheme, to additionally accounting for gravitational and wind-driven lateral snow redistribution. Test site for the study is the Berchtesgaden National Park (Bavarian Alps, Germany) which is characterized by extreme topography and climate conditions. The performance of the model system in reproducing snow cover dynamics and resulting discharge generation is analyzed and validated via measurements of snow water equivalent and snow depth, satellite-based remote sensing data, and runoff gauge data. Model efficiency (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) for simulated runoff increases from 0.57 to 0.68 in a high Alpine headwater catchment and from 0.62 to 0.64 in total with increasing snow model complexity. In particular, the results show that the introduction of the energy balance scheme reproduces daily fluctuations in the snowmelt rates that trace down to the channel stream. These daily cycles measured in snowmelt and resulting runoff rates could not be reproduced by using the temperature index approach. In addition, accounting for lateral snow transport changes the seasonal distribution of modeled snowmelt amounts, which leads to a higher accuracy in modeling runoff characteristics.

  12. Atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants - development of a 3-d dynamical transport model covering the northern hemisphere (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Frohn, L. M.; Brandt, J.


    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur, lead, and mercury to the Arctic. The model has been validated carefully for these compounds. A new version of DEHM is currently being developed to describe the atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) which are toxic, lipophilic and bio-accumulating compounds showing great persistence in the environment. The model has a horizontal resolution of 150 km x 150 km and 18 vertical layers, and it is driven by meteorological data from the numerical weather prediction model MM5V2. During environmental cycling POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The present model version describes the atmospheric transport of the pesticide alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH). Other POPs may be included when proper data on emissions and physical-chemical parameters becomes available. The model-processes and the first model results are presented. The atmospheric transport of alpha-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model.

  13. Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS-based NDSI-derived fractional snow-covered area data (United States)

    Joel W. Homan; Charles H. Luce; James P. McNamara; Nancy F. Glenn


    Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain-front scale is important for improvements in large-scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snowcovered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale-up snowmelt models....

  14. Monthly land cover-specific evapotranspiration models derived from global eddy flux measurements and remote sensing data (United States)

    Yuan Fang; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Asko Noormets; Jean-Christophe Domec; John King; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xudong Zhang; Guanghui Lin; Guangsheng Zhou; Jingfeng Xiao; Jiquan Chen


    Evapotranspiration (ET) is arguably the most uncertain ecohydrologic variable for quantifying watershed water budgets. Although numerous ET and hydrological models exist, accurately predicting the effects of global change on water use and availability remains challenging because of model deficiency and/or a lack of input parameters. The objective of this study was to...

  15. Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

    was to evaluate the uncertainty of the modelled wind in the coastal zone and further improve it. Moreover LIDAR measurements were used to evaluate the wind speed retrieval from high resolution SAR systems (Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X). The WRF model used a high-resolution satellite SST reanalysis product from...... be implemented in the meso-scale model to better represent the actual conditions in the study area. Such improvements are expected to strengthen the model’s ability to represent land- sea and air-sea interactions, the atmospheric stability and the local topographic features that partly affect the coastal zone......Existing wind measurements in near-shore and offshore areas are sparse and scarce, therefore simulations from state-of-the-art meso-scale models are used for wind resource predictions. In coastal and near-shore areas, models are inaccurate and uncertain, mainly because of numerical approximations...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. А. Kharitonenkov


    Full Text Available Model reconstruction of vegetation cover of the south of the West Siberian Plain from the late Pleistocene to the modern era has been carried out on the basis of the associated chronological analysis of paleontological, archaeological and paleoclimate data. We have determined the starting point of active vegetation transformation in the south of the West Siberian Plain as a result of tradition-bound exploitation of natural resources. Periods of maximum anthropogenic load – peak and relative recession – on vegetation cover, acting as a further determinant factor, have been determined in this study for the first time. Comprehensive analysis and new understanding of palynological, paleozoological, archaeological and paleoclimate data in terms of theoretical synecology confirmed the notions on the determinant role of the anthropogenic factor in the transformation of the Pleistocene forest-meadow-steppe vegetation into contemporary communities of the southern taiga, the subtaiga and the forest-steppe of the West Siberian Plain.

  17. Broad-Application Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motloch, C.G.


    This report is about a new, safe, and operationally efficient DOE reactor of nuclear research and testing proposed for the early to mid- 21st Century. Dubbed the Broad-Application Test Reactor (BATR), the proposed facility incorporates a multiple-application, multiple-mission design to support DOE programs such as naval reactors and space power and propulsion, as well as research in medical, science, isotope, and electronics arenas. DOE research reactors are aging, and implementing major replacement projects requires long lead times. Primary design drivers include safety, low risk, minimum operation cost, mission flexibility, waste minimization, and long life. Scientists and engineers at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory are evaluating possible fuel forms, structural materials, reactor geometries, coolants, and moderators

  18. Climate Impacts of Cover Crops (United States)

    Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.


    Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

  19. Broad-band beam buncher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, D.A.; Flood, W.S.; Arthur, A.A.; Voelker, F.


    This patent describes a broad-band beam buncher. This beam buncher consists of: a housing adapted to be eacuated, an electron gun in the housing for producing a beam of electrons, buncher means in the housing forming a buncher cavity which has an entrance opening for receiving the electron beam and an exit opening through which the electron beam passes out of the buncher cavity, a drift tube electrode in the buncher cavity and disposed between the entrance opening and the exit opening with first and second gaps between the drift tube electrode and the entrance and exit openings, the drift tube electrode which has a first drift space through which the electron beam passes in traveling between the entrance and exit openings, modulating means for supplying an ultrahigh frequeny modulating signal to the drift tube electrode for producing velocity modulation of the electrons in the electron beam as the electrons pass through the buncher cavity and the drift tube electrode between the entrance opening and the exit opening, drift space means in the housing forming a second drift space for receiving the velocity modulated electron beam from the exit opening, the velocity modulated electron beam being bunched as it passes along the second drift space, the drift space means has a discharge opening through which the electron beam is discharged from the second drift space after being bunched therein, the modulating means containing a signal source for producing an ultrahigh frequency signal, a transmission line connected between the signal source and the drift tube electrode, and terminating means connected to the drift tube electrode for terminating the transmission line in approximately its characteristic impedance to afford a broad response band with minimum 6 variations therein

  20. Compact modeling of nanoscale triple-gate junctionless transistors covering drift-diffusion to quasi-ballistic carrier transport (United States)

    Oproglidis, T. A.; Karatsori, T. A.; Barraud, S.; Ghibaudo, G.; Dimitriadis, C. A.


    In this work, we extend our analytical compact model for nanoscale junctionless triple-gate (JL TG) MOSFETs, capturing carrier transport from drift-diffusion to quasi-ballistic regime. This is based on a simple formulation of the low-field mobility extracted from experimental data using the Y-function method, taking into account the ballistic carrier motion and an increased carrier scattering in process-induced defects near the source/drain regions. The case of a Schottky junction in non-ideal ohmic contact at the drain side was also taken into account by modifying the threshold voltage and ideality factor of the JL transistor. The model is validated with experimental data for n-channel JL TG MOSFETs with channel length varying from 95 down to 25 nm. It can be easily implemented as a compact model for use in Spice circuit simulators.

  1. Animal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens Peter; Krentz, Andrew


    In this issue of Cardiovascular Endocrinology, we are proud to present a broad and dedicated spectrum of reviews on animal models in cardiovascular disease. The reviews cover most aspects of animal models in science from basic differences and similarities between small animals and the human...

  2. Comparative Assessment of Two Vegetation Fractional Cover Estimating Methods and Their Impacts on Modeling Urban Latent Heat Flux Using Landsat Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Liu


    Full Text Available Quantifying vegetation fractional cover (VFC and assessing its role in heat fluxes modeling using medium resolution remotely sensed data has received less attention than it deserves in heterogeneous urban regions. This study examined two approaches (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI-derived and Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA-derived methods that are commonly used to map VFC based on Landsat imagery, in modeling surface heat fluxes in urban landscape. For this purpose, two different heat flux models, Two-source energy balance (TSEB model and Pixel Component Arranging and Comparing Algorithm (PCACA model, were adopted for model evaluation and analysis. A comparative analysis of the NDVI-derived and MESMA-derived VFCs showed that the latter achieved more accurate estimates in complex urban regions. When the two sources of VFCs were used as inputs to both TSEB and PCACA models, MESMA-derived urban VFC produced more accurate urban heat fluxes (Bowen ratio and latent heat flux relative to NDVI-derived urban VFC. Moreover, our study demonstrated that Landsat imagery-retrieved VFC exhibited greater uncertainty in obtaining urban heat fluxes for the TSEB model than for the PCACA model.

  3. An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification (United States)

    Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.


    We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

  4. Support Vector Data Description Model to Map Specific Land Cover with Optimal Parameters Determined from a Window-Based Validation Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinshui Zhang


    Full Text Available This paper developed an approach, the window-based validation set for support vector data description (WVS-SVDD, to determine optimal parameters for support vector data description (SVDD model to map specific land cover by integrating training and window-based validation sets. Compared to the conventional approach where the validation set included target and outlier pixels selected visually and randomly, the validation set derived from WVS-SVDD constructed a tightened hypersphere because of the compact constraint by the outlier pixels which were located neighboring to the target class in the spectral feature space. The overall accuracies for wheat and bare land achieved were as high as 89.25% and 83.65%, respectively. However, target class was underestimated because the validation set covers only a small fraction of the heterogeneous spectra of the target class. The different window sizes were then tested to acquire more wheat pixels for validation set. The results showed that classification accuracy increased with the increasing window size and the overall accuracies were higher than 88% at all window size scales. Moreover, WVS-SVDD showed much less sensitivity to the untrained classes than the multi-class support vector machine (SVM method. Therefore, the developed method showed its merits using the optimal parameters, tradeoff coefficient (C and kernel width (s, in mapping homogeneous specific land cover.

  5. Modelling local distribution of an Arctic dwarf shrub indicates an important role for remote sensing of snow cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, PSA; Kalmbach, E; Joly, D; Stien, A; Nilsen, L


    Despite the intensive research effort directed at predicting the effects of climate change on plants in the Arctic, the impact of environmental change on species' distributions remains difficult to quantify. Predictive habitat distribution models provide a tool to predict the geographical

  6. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic


    on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict...

  7. Soil bulk electrical resistivity and forage ground cover: nonlinear models in an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L. case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Rossi


    Full Text Available Alfalfa is a highly productive and fertility-building forage crop; its performance, can be highly variable as influenced by within-field soil spatial variability. Characterising the relations between soil and forage- variation is important for optimal management. The aim of this work was to model the relationship between soil electrical resistivity (ER and plant productivity in an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L. field in Southern Italy. ER mapping was accomplished by a multi-depth automatic resistivity profiler. Plant productivity was assessed through normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI at 2 dates. A non-linear relationship between NDVI and deep soil ER was modelled within the framework of generalised additive models. The best model explained 70% of the total variability. Soil profiles at six locations selected along a gradient of ER showed differences related to texture (ranging from clay to sandy-clay loam, gravel content (0 to 55% and to the presence of a petrocalcic horizon. Our results prove that multi-depth ER can be used to localise permanent soil features that drive plant productivity.

  8. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chini, Louise M. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Truesdale, John E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Craig, Anthony P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hurtt, George [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Thomson, Allison M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)


    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  9. Comparison of two numerical modelling approaches to a field experiment of unsaturated radon transport in a covered uranium mill tailings soil (Lavaugrasse, France)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saadi, Zakaria; Guillevic, Jerome [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-DGE/SEDRAN/BRN, 31 avenue de la Division Leclerc, B.P. 17, 92262, Fontenay-aux-Roses, Cedex (France)


    Uncertainties on the mathematical modelling of radon transport in an unsaturated covered uranium mill tailings (UMT) soil at field scale can have a great impact on the estimation of the average measured radon flux to the atmosphere at the landfill cover, which must be less than the threshold value 0.74 Bq.m{sup -2}.s{sup -1}recommended by the federal standard (EPA 40 CFR 192). These uncertainties are usually attributed to the numerical errors from the numerical schemes dealing with soil layering and to inadequate representations of the modelling of physical processes at the soil/plant/atmosphere interface and of the soil hydraulic and transport properties, as well as their parameterization. In this work, we compare one-dimensional simulation results from two numerical models of two-phase (water-air) porous media flow and radon transport to the data of radon activity exhalation flux and depth-volumetric concentration measured during a field campaign from June to November of 1999 in a two-layered soil of 1.3 m thickness (i.e., cover material/UMT: 0.5/0.8 m) of an experimental pond located at the Lavaugrasse UMT-landfill site (France). The first numerical modelling approach is a coupled finite volume compositional (i.e., water, radon, air) transport model (TOUGH2/EOS7Rn code, Saadi et al., 2013), while the second one is a decoupled finite difference one-component (i.e., radon) transport model (TRACI code, Ferry et al., 2001). Transient simulations during six month of hourly rainfall and atmospheric pressure variations showed that calculations from the one-component transport model usually overestimate both measured radon exhalation flux and depth-concentration. However, considering the effective unsaturated pore air-component diffusivity to be different from that of the radon-component in the compositional transport model allowed to significantly enhancing the modelling of these radon experimental data. The time-averaged radon flux calculated by EOS7Rn (3.42 Bq

  10. Gas-kinetic unified algorithm for hypersonic flows covering various flow regimes solving Boltzmann model equation in nonequilibrium effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Zhihui; Ma, Qiang; Wu, Junlin; Jiang, Xinyu; Zhang, Hanxin


    Based on the Gas-Kinetic Unified Algorithm (GKUA) directly solving the Boltzmann model equation, the effect of rotational non-equilibrium is investigated recurring to the kinetic Rykov model with relaxation property of rotational degrees of freedom. The spin movement of diatomic molecule is described by moment of inertia, and the conservation of total angle momentum is taken as a new Boltzmann collision invariant. The molecular velocity distribution function is integrated by the weight factor on the internal energy, and the closed system of two kinetic controlling equations is obtained with inelastic and elastic collisions. The optimization selection technique of discrete velocity ordinate points and numerical quadrature rules for macroscopic flow variables with dynamic updating evolvement are developed to simulate hypersonic flows, and the gas-kinetic numerical scheme is constructed to capture the time evolution of the discretized velocity distribution functions. The gas-kinetic boundary conditions in thermodynamic non-equilibrium and numerical procedures are studied and implemented by directly acting on the velocity distribution function, and then the unified algorithm of Boltzmann model equation involving non-equilibrium effect is presented for the whole range of flow regimes. The hypersonic flows involving non-equilibrium effect are numerically simulated including the inner flows of shock wave structures in nitrogen with different Mach numbers of 1.5-Ma-25, the planar ramp flow with the whole range of Knudsen numbers of 0.0009-Kn-10 and the three-dimensional re-entering flows around tine double-cone body

  11. Applying model parameters as a driving force to a deterministic nonlinear system to detect land cover change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP


    Full Text Available be de- rived for Equation (8) as shown in [27]. The Poincare´- Bendixson theorem states that a differential equation with a three-dimensional phase plane can be chaotic [28]. Hence Equation (8) is a nonlinear deterministic system that can exert... model parameters. Lemma 1. The characteristics of a differential equation can be investigated with the aid of a phase plane plot, which illustrates the limit cycles of the solutions. A three-dimensional phase plane representation that is autonomous can...

  12. Modeling the Broad-Band Emission from the Gamma-Ray Emitting Narrow-Line Seyfert-1 Galaxies 1H 0323+342 and B2 0954+25A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arrieta-Lobo, Maialen; Boisson, Catherine; Zech, Andreas


    Prior to the Fermi-LAT era, only two classes of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) were thought to harbor relativistic jets that radiate up to gamma-ray energies: blazars and radio galaxies. The detection of variable gamma-ray emission from Narrow Line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies has put them on the spotlight as a new class of gamma-ray emitting AGN. In this respect, gamma-ray emitting NLSy1s seem to be situated between blazars (dominated by non-thermal emission) and Seyferts (accretion disc dominated). In this work, we model the Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) of two gamma-loud NLSy1s, 1H 0323+342 and B2 0954+25A, during quiescent and flaring episodes via a multi-component radiative model that features a relativistic jet and external photon fields from the torus, disc, corona and Broad Line Region (BLR). We find that the interpretation of the high-energy emission of jetted NLSy1s requires taking into account Inverse Compton emission from particles in the relativistic jet that interact with external photon fields. Minimal changes are applied to the model parameters to transition from average to flaring states. In this scenario, the observed variability is explained mainly by means of changes in the jet density and Doppler factor.

  13. Modeling the Broad-Band Emission from the Gamma-Ray Emitting Narrow-Line Seyfert-1 Galaxies 1H 0323+342 and B2 0954+25A

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arrieta-Lobo, Maialen; Boisson, Catherine; Zech, Andreas, E-mail: [Laboratoire Univers et Theories, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Université Paris-Diderot, PSL Research University, Meudon (France)


    Prior to the Fermi-LAT era, only two classes of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) were thought to harbor relativistic jets that radiate up to gamma-ray energies: blazars and radio galaxies. The detection of variable gamma-ray emission from Narrow Line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies has put them on the spotlight as a new class of gamma-ray emitting AGN. In this respect, gamma-ray emitting NLSy1s seem to be situated between blazars (dominated by non-thermal emission) and Seyferts (accretion disc dominated). In this work, we model the Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) of two gamma-loud NLSy1s, 1H 0323+342 and B2 0954+25A, during quiescent and flaring episodes via a multi-component radiative model that features a relativistic jet and external photon fields from the torus, disc, corona and Broad Line Region (BLR). We find that the interpretation of the high-energy emission of jetted NLSy1s requires taking into account Inverse Compton emission from particles in the relativistic jet that interact with external photon fields. Minimal changes are applied to the model parameters to transition from average to flaring states. In this scenario, the observed variability is explained mainly by means of changes in the jet density and Doppler factor.

  14. Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model. (United States)

    Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A


    In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimation of biogenic emissions with satellite-derived land use and land cover data for air quality modeling of Houston-Galveston ozone nonattainment area. (United States)

    Byun, Daewon W; Kim, Soontae; Czader, Beata; Nowak, David; Stetson, Stephen; Estes, Mark


    The Houston-Galveston Area (HGA) is one of the most severe ozone non-attainment regions in the US. To study the effectiveness of controlling anthropogenic emissions to mitigate regional ozone nonattainment problems, it is necessary to utilize adequate datasets describing the environmental conditions that influence the photochemical reactivity of the ambient atmosphere. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions from point and mobile sources, there are large uncertainties in the locations and amounts of biogenic emissions. For regional air quality modeling applications, biogenic emissions are not directly measured but are usually estimated with meteorological data such as photo-synthetically active solar radiation, surface temperature, land type, and vegetation database. In this paper, we characterize these meteorological input parameters and two different land use land cover datasets available for HGA: the conventional biogenic vegetation/land use data and satellite-derived high-resolution land cover data. We describe the procedures used for the estimation of biogenic emissions with the satellite derived land cover data and leaf mass density information. Air quality model simulations were performed using both the original and the new biogenic emissions estimates. The results showed that there were considerable uncertainties in biogenic emissions inputs. Subsequently, ozone predictions were affected up to 10 ppb, but the magnitudes and locations of peak ozone varied each day depending on the upwind or downwind positions of the biogenic emission sources relative to the anthropogenic NOx and VOC sources. Although the assessment had limitations such as heterogeneity in the spatial resolutions, the study highlighted the significance of biogenic emissions uncertainty on air quality predictions. However, the study did not allow extrapolation of the directional changes in air quality corresponding to the changes in LULC because the two datasets were based on vastly different

  16. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL (United States)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt


    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  17. Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Arun; Mukherjee, Sandip; Khatua, Dipam; Ghosh, Subhajit; Mitra, Debasish; Ghosh, Tuhin


    In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

  18. Forecasting summertime surface temperature and precipitation in the Mexico City metropolitan area: sensitivity of the WRF model to land cover changes (United States)

    López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor


    Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

  19. Branched polynomial covering maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard


    A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch...... set. Particular studies are made of branched polynomial covering maps arising from Riemann surfaces and from knots in the 3-sphere....

  20. 78 FR 20119 - Broad Stakeholder Survey (United States)


    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2012-0042] Broad Stakeholder Survey AGENCY... concerning the Broad Stakeholder Survey. DHS previously published this ICR in the Federal Register on August... across the Nation. The Broad Stakeholder Survey is designed to gather stakeholder feedback on the...

  1. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis. (United States)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano


    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  2. A complex systems approach to dynamic spatial simulation modeling: LandUse and LandCover change in the Ecuadorian Amazon (United States)

    Messina, Joseph Paul

    The Ecuadorian Amazon, lying in the headwaters of the Napo and Aguarico River valleys, is experiencing rapid change in LandUse and LandCover (LULC) conditions and regional landscape diversity uniquely tied to spontaneous agricultural colonization and oil exploration. Beginning in the early 1970s, spontaneous colonization occurred on squattered lands located adjacent to oil company roads and in government development sectors composed of multiple 50 ha land parcels organized into "piano key" shaped family farms or fincas. Since fincas are managed at the household level as spatially discrete, temporally independent units, land conversion at the finca-level is recognized as the chief proximate cause of deforestation within the region. Focusing on the spatial and temporal dynamics of deforestation, agricultural extensification, and plant succession at the finca-level, and urbanization at the community-level, cell-based morphogenetic models of LandUse and LandCover Change (LULCC) were developed as the foundation for predictive models of regional LULCC dynamics and landscape diversity. Two cellular automata models were developed and used to integrate biophysical, geographical, and social variables to characterize temporally dynamic landscapes. The human, geographical, and biophysical dimensions of land use and land cover change were examined, specifically deforestation, anthropogenic extensification, and reforestation. Remotely-sensed data ranging temporally from the 1970s through 1999, combined with thematic map coverages of biophysical gradients and geographical accessibility, were linked to household and community survey data collected in 1990 and 1999. Image processing techniques for LULC characterization and spatial analyses of landscape structure were used to assess the rate and nature of LULCC throughout the time-series. In addition, LULC and LULCC associated with secondary plant succession and agricultural extensification were assessed and simulated for specific

  3. When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change. (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T


    Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerras, E.; Mediavilla, E. [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Via Lactea S/N, La Laguna E-38200, Tenerife (Spain); Jimenez-Vicente, J. [Departamento de Fisica Teorica y del Cosmos, Universidad de Granada, Campus de Fuentenueva, E-18071 Granada (Spain); Kochanek, C. S. [Department of Astronomy and the Center for Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, The Ohio State University, 4055 McPherson Lab, 140 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43221 (United States); Munoz, J. A. [Departamento de Astronomia y Astrofisica, Universidad de Valencia, E-46100 Burjassot, Valencia (Spain); Falco, E. [Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Motta, V. [Departamento de Fisica y Astronomia, Universidad de Valparaiso, Avda. Gran Bretana 1111, Valparaiso (Chile)


    We measure the differential microlensing of the broad emission lines between 18 quasar image pairs in 16 gravitational lenses. We find that the broad emission lines are in general weakly microlensed. The results show, at a modest level of confidence (1.8{sigma}), that high ionization lines such as C IV are more strongly microlensed than low ionization lines such as H{beta}, indicating that the high ionization line emission regions are more compact. If we statistically model the distribution of microlensing magnifications, we obtain estimates for the broad line region size of r{sub s} = 24{sup +22} {sub -15} and r{sub s} = 55{sup +150} {sub -35} lt-day (90% confidence) for the high and low ionization lines, respectively. When the samples are divided into higher and lower luminosity quasars, we find that the line emission regions of more luminous quasars are larger, with a slope consistent with the expected scaling from photoionization models. Our estimates also agree well with the results from local reveberation mapping studies.

  5. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen


    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  6. Branched polynomial covering maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard


    A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch ...... set. Particular studies are made of branched polynomial covering maps arising from Riemann surfaces and from knots in the 3-sphere. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.......A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch...

  7. Landfill Top Covers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter


    The purpose of the final cover of a landfill is to contain the waste and to provide for a physical separation between the waste and the environment for protection of public health. Most landfill covers are designed with the primary goal to reduce or prevent infiltration of precipitation...... into the landfill in order to minimize leachate generation. In addition the cover also has to control the release of gases produced in the landfill so the gas can be ventilated, collected and utilized, or oxidized in situ. The landfill cover should also minimize erosion and support vegetation. Finally the cover...... is landscaped in order to fit into the surrounding area/environment or meet specific plans for the final use of the landfill. To fulfill the above listed requirements landfill covers are often multicomponent systems which are placed directly on top of the waste. The top cover may be placed immediately after...

  8. Novel Clostridium difficile Anti-Toxin (TcdA and TcdB Humanized Monoclonal Antibodies Demonstrate In Vitro Neutralization across a Broad Spectrum of Clinical Strains and In Vivo Potency in a Hamster Spore Challenge Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyu Qiu

    Full Text Available Clostridium difficile (C. difficile infection (CDI is the main cause of nosocomial antibiotic-associated colitis and increased incidence of community-associated diarrhea in industrialized countries. At present, the primary treatment of CDI is antibiotic administration, which is effective but often associated with recurrence, especially in the elderly. Pathogenic strains produce enterotoxin, toxin A (TcdA, and cytotoxin, toxin B (TcdB, which are necessary for C. difficile induced diarrhea and gut pathological changes. Administration of anti-toxin antibodies provides an alternative approach to treat CDI, and has shown promising results in preclinical and clinical studies. In the current study, several humanized anti-TcdA and anti-TcdB monoclonal antibodies were generated and their protective potency was characterized in a hamster infection model. The humanized anti-TcdA (CANmAbA4 and anti-TcdB (CANmAbB4 and CANmAbB1 antibodies showed broad spectrum in vitro neutralization of toxins from clinical strains and neutralization in a mouse toxin challenge model. Moreover, co-administration of humanized antibodies (CANmAbA4 and CANmAbB4 cocktail provided a high level of protection in a dose dependent manner (85% versus 57% survival at day 22 for 50 mg/kg and 20 mg/kg doses, respectively in a hamster gastrointestinal infection (GI model. This study describes the protective effects conferred by novel neutralizing anti-toxin monoclonal antibodies against C. difficile toxins and their potential as therapeutic agents in treating CDI.

  9. Interaction of Electromagnetic Waves with Two-Dimensional Metal Covered with Radar Absorbing Material and Plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lan Chaohui; Hu Xiwei; Jiang Zhonghe


    A two-dimensional metal model is established to investigate the stealth mechanisms of radar absorbing material (RAM) and plasma when they cover the model together. Using the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, the interaction of electromagnetic (EM) waves with the model can be studied. In this paper, three covering cases are considered: a. RAM or plasma covering the metal solely; b. RAM and plasma covering the metal, while plasma is placed outside; c. RAM and plasma covering the metal, while RAM is placed outside. The calculated results show that the covering order has a great influence on the absorption of EM waves. Compared to case a, case b has an advantage in the absorption of relatively high-frequency EM waves (HFWs), whereas case c has an advantage in the absorption of relatively low-frequency EM waves (LFWs). Through the optimization of the parameters of both plasma and RAM, it is hopeful to obtain a broad absorption band by RAM and plasma covering. Near-field attenuation rate and far-field radar cross section (RCS) are employed to compare the different cases. (low temperature plasma)

  10. An Integrated Software Framework to Support Semantic Modeling and Reasoning of Spatiotemporal Change of Geographical Objects: A Use Case of Land Use and Land Cover Change Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenwen Li


    Full Text Available Evolving Earth observation and change detection techniques enable the automatic identification of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC over a large extent from massive amounts of remote sensing data. It at the same time poses a major challenge in effective organization, representation and modeling of such information. This study proposes and implements an integrated computational framework to support the modeling, semantic and spatial reasoning of change information with regard to space, time and topology. We first proposed a conceptual model to formally represent the spatiotemporal variation of change data, which is essential knowledge to support various environmental and social studies, such as deforestation and urbanization studies. Then, a spatial ontology was created to encode these semantic spatiotemporal data in a machine-understandable format. Based on the knowledge defined in the ontology and related reasoning rules, a semantic platform was developed to support the semantic query and change trajectory reasoning of areas with LULCC. This semantic platform is innovative, as it integrates semantic and spatial reasoning into a coherent computational and operational software framework to support automated semantic analysis of time series data that can go beyond LULC datasets. In addition, this system scales well as the amount of data increases, validated by a number of experimental results. This work contributes significantly to both the geospatial Semantic Web and GIScience communities in terms of the establishment of the (web-based semantic platform for collaborative question answering and decision-making.

  11. Armored Geomembrane Cover Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Foye


    Full Text Available Geomembranes are an important component of modern engineered barriers to prevent the infiltration of stormwater and runoff into contaminated soil and rock as well as waste containment facilities—a function generally described as a geomembrane cover. This paper presents a case history involving a novel implementation of a geomembrane cover system. Due to this novelty, the design engineers needed to assemble from disparate sources the design criteria for the engineering of the cover. This paper discusses the design methodologies assembled by the engineering team. This information will aid engineers designing similar cover systems as well as environmental and public health professionals selecting site improvements that involve infiltration barriers.

  12. Percent Forest Cover (Future) (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Forests provide economic and ecological value. High percentages of forest cover (FORPCTFuture) generally indicate healthier ecosystems and cleaner surface water....

  13. Percent Forest Cover (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Forests provide economic and ecological value. High percentages of forest cover (FORPCT) generally indicate healthier ecosystems and cleaner surface water. More...

  14. Development of deforestation and land cover database for Bhutan (1930-2014). (United States)

    Reddy, C Sudhakar; Satish, K V; Jha, C S; Diwakar, P G; Murthy, Y V N Krishna; Dadhwal, V K


    Bhutan is a mountainous country located in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. This study has quantified the total area under land cover types, estimated the rate of forest cover change, analyzed the changes across forest types, and modeled forest cover change hotpots in Bhutan. The topographical maps and satellite remote sensing images were analyzed to get the spatial patterns of forest and associated land cover changes over the past eight decades (1930-1977-1987-1995-2005-2014). Forest is the largest land cover in Bhutan and constitutes 68.3% of the total geographical area in 2014. Subtropical broad leaved hill forest is predominant type occupies 34.1% of forest area in Bhutan, followed by montane dry temperate (20.9%), montane wet temperate (18.9%), Himalayan moist temperate (10%), and tropical moist sal (8.1%) in 2014. The major forest cover loss is observed in subtropical broad leaved hill forest (64.5 km 2 ) and moist sal forest (9.9 km 2 ) from 1977 to 2014. The deforested areas have mainly been converted into agriculture and contributed for 60.9% of forest loss from 1930 to 2014. In spite of major decline of forest cover in time interval of 1930-1977, there is no net rate of deforestation is recorded in Bhutan since 1995. Forest cover change analysis has been carried out to evaluate the conservation effectiveness in "Protected Areas" of Bhutan. Hotspots that have undergone high transformation in forest cover for afforestation and deforestation were highlighted in the study for conservation prioritisation. Forest conservation policies in Bhutan are highly effective in controlling deforestation as compared to neighboring Asian countries and such service would help in mitigating climate change.

  15. Special study on vegetative covers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This report describes the findings of a special study on the use of vegetative covers to stabilize tailings piles for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The principal rationale for using plants would be to establish a dynamic system for controlling water balance. Specifically, vegetation would be used to intercept and transpire precipitation to the atmosphere, rather than allowing water to drain into the tailings and mobilize contaminants. This would facilitate compliance with groundwater standards proposed for the UMTRA Project by the Environmental Protection Agency. The goals of the study were to evaluate the feasibility of using vegetative covers on UMTRA Project piles, define the advantages and disadvantages of vegetative covers, and develop general guidelines for their use when such use seems reasonable. The principal method for the study was to analyze and apply to the UMTRA Project the results of research programs on vegetative covers at other US Department of Energy (DOE) waste management facilities. The study also relied upon observations made of existing stabilized piles at UMTRA Project sites where natural vegetation is growing on the rock-covered surfaces. Water balance and erosion models were also used to quantify the long-term performance of vegetative covers planned for the topslopes of stabilized piles at Grand Junction and Durango, Colorado, two UMTRA Project sites where the decision was made during the course of this special study to use vegetative covers. Elements in the design and construction of the vegetative covers at these two sites are discussed in the report, with explanations of the differing features that reflect differing environmental conditions. 28 refs., 18 figs., 9 tabs

  16. Applying an energy balance model of a debris covered glacier through the Himalayan seasons - insights from the field and sensitivity analysis (United States)

    Steiner, Jakob; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Buri, Pascal; Brock, Ben


    Although some recent studies have attempted to model melt below debris cover in the Himalaya as well as the European Alps, field measurements remain rare and uncertainties of a number of parameters are difficult to constrain. The difficulty of accurately measuring sub-debris melt at one location over a longer period of time with stakes adds to the challenge of calibrating models adequately, as moving debris tends to tilt stakes. Based on measurements of sub-debris melt with stakes as well as air and surface temperature at the same location during three years from 2012 to 2014 at Lirung Glacier in the Nepalese Himalaya, we investigate results with the help of an earlier developed energy balance model. We compare stake readings to cumulative melt as well as observed to modelled surface temperatures. With timeseries stretching through the pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and post-Monsoon of different years we can show the difference of sensitive parameters during these seasons. Using radiation measurements from the AWS we can use a temporarily variable time series of albedo. A thorough analysis of thermistor data showing the stratigraphy of the temperature through the debris layer allows a detailed discussion of the variability as well as the uncertainty range of thermal conductivity. Distributed wind data as well as results from a distributed surface roughness assessment allows to constrain variability of turbulent fluxes between the different locations of the stakes. We show that model results are especially sensitive to thermal conductivity, a value that changes substantially between the seasons. Values obtained from the field are compared to earlier studies, which shows large differences within locations in the Himalaya. We also show that wind varies with more than a factor two between depressions and on debris mounds which has a significant influence on turbulent fluxes. Albedo decreases from the dry to the wet season and likely has some spatial variability that is

  17. Development of a Memory Game to Improve Knowledge Retention in Preparation for Broad Scope Exams in an Introductory Earth Science Course (United States)

    Cook, H. M.; Bilsley, N. A.


    As the demand for introductory earth science classes rises at educational institutions, large class sizes place strain on the educator's time and ability to offer extensive project-based assignments. As a result, exams covering a broad spectrum of material are more heavily weighted in students' grades. Students often struggle on the first exam, as they attempt to retain a large amount of information from several different topics, while having no exposure to the type of questions that will be asked. This frequently leads to a large dropout rate early in the academic term, or at least a sense of discouragement and stress among struggling students. To better prepare students for a broad scope exam, a review activity modelled after the traditional Milton Bradley "Memory" game was developed to remind students of what would be covered on the exam, prepare them for the style of questions that may be asked, as well as provide a fun, interactive, and educational activity. The Earth Science Memory Game was developed to have interchangeable sets to cover a broad range of topics and thus also be reusable for the duration of the course. Example games sets presented include, but are not limited to, the scientific method, minerals, rocks, topographic maps, tectonics, geologic structures, volcanoes, and weather. The Earth Science Memory Game not only provides an effective review tool to improve success rates on broad scope exams, but is also customizable by the instructor, reusable, and easily constructed by common office supplies.

  18. Do we need to account for scenarios of land use/land cover changes in regional climate modeling and impact studies? (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc


    By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land

  19. Simulation of Forest Cover Dynamics for Eastern Eurasian Boreal Forests (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Yan, X.; Zhang, N.; Isaev, A. S.; Shuman, J. K.


    We are developing and testing a boreal zone forest dynamics model capable of simulating the forest cover dynamics of the Eurasian boreal forest, a major biospheric ecosystem with potentially large roles in the planetary carbon cycle and in the feedback between terrestrial surface and the atmosphere. In appreciating the role of this region in the coupling between atmosphere and terrestrial surface, on must understand the interactions between CO2 source/sink relationships (associated with growing or clearing forests) and the albedo effects (from changes in terrestrial surface cover). There is some evidence that in the Eurasian Boreal zone, the Carbon budget effects from forest change may oppose the albedo changes. This creates complex feedbacks between surface and atmosphere and motivates the need for a forest dynamics model that simultaneous represents forest vegetation and carbon storage and release. A forest dynamics model applied to Eastern Eurasia, FAREAST, has been tested using three types of information: 1. Direct species composition comparisons between simulated and observed mature forests at the same locations; 2. Forest type comparisons between simulated and observed forests along altitudinal gradients of several different mountains; 3. Comparison with forest stands in different succession stages of simulated forests. Model comparisons with independent data indicate the FAREAST model is capable of representing many of the broad features of the forests of Northeastern China. After model validation in the Northeast China region, model applications were developed for the forests of the Russian Far East. Continental-scale forest cover can be simulated to a relatively realistic degree using a forest gap model with standard representations of individual-plant processes. It appears that such a model, validated relatively locally in this case, in Northeastern China, can then be applied over a much larger region and under conditions of climatic change.

  20. Covered Bridge Security Manual (United States)

    Brett Phares; Terry Wipf; Ryan Sievers; Travis Hosteng


    The design, construction, and use of covered timber bridges is all but a lost art in these days of pre-stressed concrete, high-performance steel, and the significant growth both in the volume and size of vehicles. Furthermore, many of the existing covered timber bridges are preserved only because of their status on the National Registry of Historic Places or the...

  1. EW-7197 eluting nano-fiber covered self-expandable metallic stent to prevent granulation tissue formation in a canine urethral model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kichang Han

    Full Text Available To evaluate an EW-7197-eluting nanofiber-covered stent (NFCS for suppressing granulation tissue formation after stent placement in a canine urethral model.All experiments were approved by the committee of animal research. A total of 12 NFCSs were placed in the proximal and distal urethras of six dogs. Dogs were divided into two groups with 3 dogs each. The control stent (CS group received NFCSs and the drug stent (DS group received EW-7197 (1000 μg-eluting NFCSs. All dogs were sacrificed 8 weeks after stent placement Histologic findings of the stented urethra were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test.Stent placement was technically successful in all dogs without procedure-related complications. On urethrographic analysis, the mean luminal diameter was significantly larger in the DS group than in the CS group at 4 and 8 weeks after stent placement (all p 0.05.The EW-7197-eluting NFCS is effective and safe for suppressing granulation tissue formation after stent placement in a canine urethral model.

  2. Assessing the Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Datasets with Different Points in Time and Levels of Detail on Watershed Modeling in the North River Watershed, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinliang Huang


    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC information is an important component influencing watershed modeling with regards to hydrology and water quality in the river basin. In this study, the sensitivity of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model to LULC datasets with three points in time and three levels of detail was assessed in a coastal subtropical watershed located in Southeast China. The results showed good agreement between observed and simulated values for both monthly and daily streamflow and monthly NH4+-N and TP loads. Three LULC datasets in 2002, 2007 and 2010 had relatively little influence on simulated monthly and daily streamflow, whereas they exhibited greater effects on simulated monthly NH4+-N and TP loads. When using the two LULC datasets in 2007 and 2010 compared with that in 2002, the relative differences in predicted monthly NH4+-N and TP loads were −11.0 to −7.8% and −4.8 to −9.0%, respectively. There were no significant differences in simulated monthly and daily streamflow when using the three LULC datasets with ten, five and three categories. When using LULC datasets from ten categories compared to five and three categories, the relative differences in predicted monthly NH4+-N and TP loads were −6.6 to −6.5% and −13.3 to −7.3%, respectively. Overall, the sensitivity of the SWAT model to LULC datasets with different points in time and levels of detail was lower in monthly and daily streamflow simulation than in monthly NH4+-N and TP loads prediction. This research provided helpful insights into the influence of LULC datasets on watershed modeling.

  3. Utilization of satellite remote sensing data on land surface characteristics in water and heat balance component modeling for vegetation covered territories (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Uspensky, Alexander; Startseva, Zoya; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander; Uspensky, Sergey


    The model of vertical water and heat transfer in the "soil-vegetation-atmosphere" system (SVAT) for vegetation covered territory has been developed, allowing assimilating satellite remote sensing data on land surface condition as well as accounting for heterogeneities of vegetation and meteorological characteristics. The model provides the calculation of water and heat balance components (such as evapotranspiration Ev, soil water content W, sensible and latent heat fluxes and others ) as well as vertical soil moisture and temperature distributions, temperatures of soil surface and foliage, land surface brightness temperature for any time interval within vegetation season. To describe the landscape diversity soil constants and leaf area index LAI, vegetation cover fraction B, and other vegetation characteristics are used. All these values are considered to be the model parameters. Territory of Kursk region with square about 15 thousands km2 situated in the Black Earth zone of Central Russia was chosen for investigation. Satellite-derived estimates of land surface characteristics have been constructed under cloud-free condition basing AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and EOS Aqua, SEVIRI/Meteosat-8, -9 data. The developed technologies of AVHRR data thematic processing have been refined providing the retrieval of surface skin brightness temperature Tsg, air foliage temperature Ta, efficient surface temperature Ts.eff and emissivity E, as well as derivation of vegetation index NDVI, B, and LAI. The linear regression estimators for Tsg, Ta and LAI have been built using representative training samples for 2003-2009 vegetation seasons. The updated software package has been applied for AVHRR data thematic processing to generate named remote sensing products for various dates of the above vegetation seasons. The error statistics of Ta, Ts.eff and Тsg derivation has been investigated for various samples using comparison with in-situ measurements that has given RMS errors in the

  4. Broad Prize: Do the Successes Spread? (United States)

    Samuels, Christina A.


    When the Broad Prize for Urban Education was created in 2002, billionaire philanthropist Eli Broad said he hoped the awards, in addition to rewarding high-performing school districts, would foster healthy competition; boost the prestige of urban education, long viewed as dysfunctional; and showcase best practices. Over the 10 years the prize has…

  5. 77 FR 50144 - Broad Stakeholder Survey (United States)


    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2012-0042] Broad Stakeholder Survey AGENCY... Information Collection Request: 1670-NEW. SUMMARY: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National... (Pub. L. 104-13, 44 U.S.C. Chapter 35). NPPD is soliciting comments concerning the Broad Stakeholder...

  6. 76 FR 34087 - Broad Stakeholder Survey (United States)


    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2011-0027] Broad Stakeholder Survey AGENCY... Information Collection Request: 1670-NEW. SUMMARY: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National... (Pub. L. 104-13, 44 U.S.C. Chapter 35). NPPD is soliciting comments concerning the Broad Stakeholder...

  7. A refined model of sedimentary rock cover in the southeastern part of the Congo basin from GOCE gravity and vertical gravity gradient observations (United States)

    Martinec, Zdeněk; Fullea, Javier


    We aim to interpret the vertical gravity and vertical gravity gradient of the GOCE-GRACE combined gravity model over the southeastern part of the Congo basin to refine the published model of sedimentary rock cover. We use the GOCO03S gravity model and evaluate its spherical harmonic representation at or near the Earth's surface. In this case, the gradiometry signals are enhanced as compared to the original measured GOCE gradients at satellite height and better emphasize the spatial pattern of sedimentary geology. To avoid aliasing, the omission error of the modelled gravity induced by the sedimentary rocks is adjusted to that of the GOCO03S gravity model. The mass-density Green's functions derived for the a priori structure of the sediments show a slightly greater sensitivity to the GOCO03S vertical gravity gradient than to the vertical gravity. Hence, the refinement of the sedimentary model is carried out for the vertical gravity gradient over the basin, such that a few anomalous values of the GOCO03S-derived vertical gravity gradient are adjusted by refining the model. We apply the 5-parameter Helmert's transformation, defined by 2 translations, 1 rotation and 2 scale parameters that are searched for by the steepest descent method. The refined sedimentary model is only slightly changed with respect to the original map, but it significantly improves the fit of the vertical gravity and vertical gravity gradient over the basin. However, there are still spatial features in the gravity and gradiometric data that remain unfitted by the refined model. These may be due to lateral density variation that is not contained in the model, a density contrast at the Moho discontinuity, lithospheric density stratifications or mantle convection. In a second step, the refined sedimentary model is used to find the vertical density stratification of sedimentary rocks. Although the gravity data can be interpreted by a constant sedimentary density, such a model does not correspond to

  8. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.


    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  9. Covering folded shapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oswin Aichholzer


    Full Text Available Can folding a piece of paper flat make it larger? We explore whether a shape S must be scaled to cover a flat-folded copy of itself. We consider both single folds and arbitrary folds (continuous piecewise isometries \\(S\\to\\mathbb{R}^2\\. The underlying problem is motivated by computational origami, and is related to other covering and fixturing problems, such as Lebesgue's universal cover problem and force closure grasps. In addition to considering special shapes (squares, equilateral triangles, polygons and disks, we give upper and lower bounds on scale factors for single folds of convex objects and arbitrary folds of simply connected objects.

  10. Assimilation of snow cover and snow depth into a snow model to estimate snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stigter, Emmy E.; Wanders, Niko; Saloranta, Tuomo M.; Shea, Joseph M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Immerzeel, W.W.


    Snow is an important component of water storage in the Himalayas. Previous snowmelt studies in the Himalayas have predominantly relied on remotely sensed snow cover. However, snow cover data provide no direct information on the actual amount of water stored in a snowpack, i.e., the snow water

  11. Evapotranspiration (ET) covers. (United States)

    Rock, Steve; Myers, Bill; Fiedler, Linda


    Evapotranspiration (ET) cover systems are increasingly being used at municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills, hazardous waste landfills, at industrial monofills, and at mine sites. Conventional cover systems use materials with low hydraulic permeability (barrier layers) to minimize the downward migration of water from the surface to the waste (percolation), ET cover systems use water balance components to minimize percolation. These cover systems rely on soil to capture and store precipitation until it is either transpired through vegetation or evaporated from the soil surface. Compared to conventional membrane or compacted clay cover systems, ET cover systems are expected to cost less to construct. They are often aesthetic because they employ naturalized vegetation, require less maintenance once the vegetative system is established, including eliminating mowing, and may require fewer repairs than a barrier system. All cover systems should consider the goals of the cover in terms of protectiveness, including the pathways of risk from contained material, the lifecycle of the containment system. The containment system needs to be protective of direct contact of people and animals with the waste, prevent surface and groundwater water pollution, and minimize release of airborne contaminants. While most containment strategies have been based on the dry tomb strategy of keeping waste dry, there are some sites where adding or allowing moisture to help decompose organic waste is the current plan. ET covers may work well in places where complete exclusion of precipitation is not needed. The U.S. EPA Alternative Cover Assessment Program (ACAP), USDOE, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and others have researched ET cover design and efficacy, including the history of their use, general considerations in their design, performance, monitoring, cost, current status, limitations on their use, and project specific examples. An on-line database has been developed with information

  12. Broad-band spectrophotometry of HAT-P-32 b

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mallonn, M.; Bernt, I.; Herrero, E.


    Multicolour broad-band transit observations offer the opportunity to characterize the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet with small- to medium-sized telescopes. One of the most favourable targets is the hot Jupiter HAT-P-32 b. We combined 21 new transit observations of this planet with 36 previou...... makes a recent tentative detection of a scattering feature less likely. Instead, the available spectral measurements of HAT-P-32 b favour a completely flat spectrum from the near-UV to the near-IR. A plausible interpretation is a thick cloud cover at high altitudes....

  13. Percent of Impervious Cover (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — High amounts of impervious cover (parking lots, rooftops, roads, etc.) can increase water runoff, which may directly enter surface water. Runoff from roads often...

  14. GAP Land Cover - Image (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This raster dataset is a simple image of the original detailed (1-acre minimum), hierarchically organized vegetation cover map produced by computer classification of...

  15. GAP Land Cover - Vector (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This vector dataset is a detailed (1-acre minimum), hierarchically organized vegetation cover map produced by computer classification of combined two-season pairs of...

  16. Percent Wetland Cover (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Wetlands act as filters, removing or diminishing the amount of pollutants that enter surface water. Higher values for percent of wetland cover (WETLNDSPCT) may be...

  17. Percent Wetland Cover (Future) (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Wetlands act as filters, removing or diminishing the amount of pollutants that enter surface water. Higher values for percent of wetland cover (WETLNDSPCT) may be...

  18. Assessing the influence of land use land cover pattern, socio economic factors and air quality status to predict morbidity on the basis of logistic based regression model (United States)

    Dixit, A.; Singh, V. K.


    Recent studies conducted by World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that 92 % of the total world population are living in places where the air quality level has exceeded the WHO standard limit for air quality. This is due to the change in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern, socio economic drivers and anthropogenic heat emission caused by manmade activity. Thereby, many prevalent human respiratory diseases such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and emphysema have increased in recent times. In this study, a quantitative relationship is developed between land use (built-up land, water bodies, and vegetation), socio economic drivers and air quality parameters using logistic based regression model over 7 different cities of India for the winter season of 2012 to 2016. Different LULC, socio economic, industrial emission sources, meteorological condition and air quality level from the monitoring stations are taken to estimate the influence on morbidity of each city. Results of correlation are analyzed between land use variables and monthly concentration of pollutants. These values range from 0.63 to 0.76. Similarly, the correlation value between land use variable with socio economic and morbidity ranges from 0.57 to 0.73. The performance of model is improved from 67 % to 79 % in estimating morbidity for the year 2015 and 2016 due to the better availability of observed data.The study highlights the growing importance of incorporating socio-economic drivers with air quality data for evaluating morbidity rate for each city in comparison to just change in quantitative analysis of air quality.

  19. Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh. (United States)

    Rahman, M Tauhid Ur; Tabassum, Faheemah; Rasheduzzaman, Md; Saba, Humayra; Sarkar, Lina; Ferdous, Jannatul; Uddin, Syed Zia; Zahedul Islam, A Z M


    Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy

  20. Ice Cliff Backwasting over debris-covered Glaciers - Insights into their Formation and Development based on new Measurements and a point-scale Model (United States)

    Steiner, J. F.; Pellicciotti, F.; Buri, P.; Miles, E. S.; Reid, T. D.; Immerzeel, W.


    The presence of ice cliffs has been identified as one possible reason for relatively high overall ablation rates on debris covered glaciers. Few measurements exist for such cliffs and their formation and evolution processes are still poorly understood. On Lirung Glacier, in the Nepalese Himalayas, numerous cliffs were monitored for two consecutive years in the pre- and post-monsoon season. Slope varied between 30° and full vertical faces. Backwasting rates were highly variable depending on slope and aspect of the location on the cliff. Only a physically based energy balance model can reproduce this heterogeneity and provide insights into the importance of atmospheric forcing and cliff characteristics on their melt. Building on two previous studies such a model was developed. It was improved with measurements of radiative fluxes perpendicular to the cliff and by applying a high resolution DEM of the surrounding topography to estimate shading and radiative fluxes incident to the cliff including longwave radiation emitted by surrounding debris. We obtain a considerable reduction in incoming shortwave radiation for north-oriented cliffs compared to horizontal measurements, and significant incident longwave component that varies with height on the cliffs. Melt rates are highly variable in time and space for the cliff. While maximum values of up to 8 cm/day are reached during monsoon, melt rates in the post-monsoon season are considerably lower than in the pre-monsoon season. Nighttime refreezing processes during this period also played an important role. Apart from topography, cliff backwasting is extremely sensitive to albedo of the ice surface, reaching values as low as 0.05. Measurements of surface temperature and wind on the cliff further improved the understanding of outgoing radiation and turbulent fluxes. Once validated against stakes readings, the model was used to explain the presence and persistence of cliffs over Lirung glacier. We show that only North

  1. Soil erosion transport through multiple rainfall events in the presence of stone cover: Laboratory flume experiments and analysis with the Hairsine-Rose model (United States)

    Jomaa, S.; Barry, D. A.; Brovelli, A.; Heng, B. P.; Sander, G. C.; Parlange, J.


    Soil erosion is a major environmental problem that can lead to loss of fertility and degradation of agricultural fields. In order to develop efficient strategies to mitigate the impact of precipitation and reduce the erosion rate, a process-based understanding of the mechanisms that govern sediment transport and delivery is necessary. Soil state and physical properties prior to a precipitation event can affect significantly the erosion rate. Among the most important soil variables are moisture content, compaction and infiltration capacity. Additionally, the presence of stones on the topsoil surface retards the overland flow discharge, reduces runoff generation as well as the sediment delivery and prevents the development of a surface seal, which in turn maintains the infiltration rate. The aim of this study was to examine in detail the effect of surface stones, soil compaction and sealing for a sequence of rainfall events on soil erosion. Experiments were conducted using the EPFL erosion flume, which was divided into two identical flumes (one with stone and one without). The experiment involved four rainfall events with the precipitation rates: 28, 74, 74 and 28 mm h-1. After each 2-h event, the soil was allowed to air dry for 22 h. The total sediment concentration, the concentration of seven sediment size classes and the flow discharge were measured during each event at the outlet of each flume. Experimental results were analyzed using the Hairsine and Rose (H-R) soil erosion model. Results showed that (i) within each precipitation event, the proportion of each size class for the bare/stone-covered flume pairs at steady state were similar, whereas the initial response differed significantly; (ii) in all cases the effluent was enriched in finer particles relative to the original soil; and (iii) the effluent sediment composition was different from that of the original soil, and there was no clear trend towards the parent soil sediment size composition with time. The

  2. Debris thickness patterns on debris-covered glaciers (United States)

    Anderson, Leif S.; Anderson, Robert S.


    Many debris-covered glaciers have broadly similar debris thickness patterns: surface debris thickens and tends to transition from convex- to concave-up-down glacier. We explain this pattern using theory (analytical and numerical models) paired with empirical observations. Down glacier debris thickening results from the conveyor-belt-like nature of the glacier surface in the ablation zone (debris can typically only be added but not removed) and from the inevitable decline in ice surface velocity toward the terminus. Down-glacier thickening of debris leads to the reduction of sub-debris melt and debris emergence toward the terminus. Convex-up debris thickness patterns occur near the up-glacier end of debris covers where debris emergence dominates (ablation controlled). Concave-up debris thickness patterns occur toward glacier termini where declining surface velocities dominate (velocity controlled). A convex-concave debris thickness profile inevitably results from the transition between ablation-control and velocity-control down-glacier. Debris thickness patterns deviating from this longitudinal shape are most likely caused by changes in hillslope debris supply through time. By establishing this expected debris thickness pattern, the effects of climate change on debris cover can be better identified.

  3. A large-scale solar greenhouse dryer using polycarbonate cover: Modeling and testing in a tropical environment of Lao People's Democratic Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janjai, Serm; Intawee, Poolsak; Kaewkiew, Jinda; Sritus, Chanoke [Solar Energy Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom 73000 (Thailand); Khamvongsa, Vathsana [Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural Science, National University of Laos, P O Box 7322, Vientiane (Lao People' s Democratic Republic)


    A large-scale solar greenhouse dryer with a loading capacity of 1000 kg of fruits or vegetables has been developed and tested at field levels. The dryer has a parabolic shape and the dryer is covered with polycarbonate sheets. The base of the dryer is a black concrete floor with an area of 7.5 x 20.0 m{sup 2}. Nine DC fans powered by three 50-W solar cell modules are used to ventilate the dryer. The dryer was installed at Champasak (15.13 N, 105.79 E) in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is routinely used to dry chilli, banana and coffee. To assess the experimental performances of the dryer, air temperature, air relative humidity and product moisture contents were measured. One thousand kilograms of banana with the initial moisture content of 68% (wb) was dried within 5 days, compared to 7 days required for natural sun drying with the same weather conditions. Also three hundred kilograms of chilli with the initial moisture content of 75% (wb) was dried within 3 days while the natural sun drying needed 5 days. Two hundred kilograms of coffee with the initial moisture content of 52% (wb) was dried within 2 days as compared to 4 days required for natural sun drying. The chilli, coffee and banana dried in this dryer were completely protected from insects, animals and rain. Furthermore, good quality of dried products was obtained. The payback period of the dryer is estimated to be 2.5 years. A system of partial differential equations describing heat and moisture transfer during drying of chilli, coffee and banana in the greenhouse dryer was developed. These equations were solved by using the finite different method. The simulated results agree well with the experimental data. This model can be used to provide the design data for this type of dryer in other locations. (author)

  4. Broad Halpha Wing Formation in the Planetary Nebula IC 4997. (United States)

    Lee; Hyung


    The young and compact planetary nebula IC 4997 is known to exhibit very broad wings with a width exceeding 5000 km s-1 around Halpha. We propose that the broad wings are formed through Rayleigh-Raman scattering that involves atomic hydrogen, by which Lybeta photons with a velocity width of a few 102 km s-1 are converted to optical photons and fill the Halpha broad wing region. The conversion efficiency reaches 0.6 near the line center, where the scattering optical depth is much larger than 1, and rapidly decreases in the far wings. Assuming that close to the central star there exists an unresolved inner compact core of high density, nH approximately 109-1010 cm-3, we use the photoionization code "CLOUDY" to show that sufficient Lybeta photons for scattering are produced. Using a top-hat-incident profile for the Lybeta flux and a scattering region with a H i column density NHi=2x1020 cm-2 and a substantial covering factor, we perform a profile-fitting analysis in order to obtain a satisfactory fit to the observed flux. We briefly discuss the astrophysical implications of the Rayleigh-Raman processes in planetary nebulae and other emission objects.

  5. On Covering Approximation Subspaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xun Ge


    Full Text Available Let (U';C' be a subspace of a covering approximation space (U;C and X⊂U'. In this paper, we show that and B'(X⊂B(X∩U'. Also, iff (U;C has Property Multiplication. Furthermore, some connections between outer (resp. inner definable subsets in (U;C and outer (resp. inner definable subsets in (U';C' are established. These results answer a question on covering approximation subspace posed by J. Li, and are helpful to obtain further applications of Pawlak rough set theory in pattern recognition and artificial intelligence.

  6. Modeling land use and cover change: Predicting re-enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program using GIS and data mining procedures (United States)

    Shcherbaniuk, Mykola Vasylyovych

    In this research, the concept of the CRP lands being re-enrolled or returned to crop production was considered as a part of a larger conceptual domain of land use and cover change (LUCC). The aim of the study was to develop models for predicting the probability of farmers' re-enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the Cache River Watershed, in Southern Illinois. The results of these analyses showed that the probability of the CRP re-enrollment is a function of a number of factors including both the economic incentives to farmers as well as the spatial and non-spatial characteristics of the farms and the CRP land parcels. Both logistical regressions and decision tree models confirmed the importance of seven individual variables. It was found that the probability of CRP re-enrollment was higher for parcels located closer to a stream, the national forest, a road and a town. Also higher re-enrollment was indicated for predominant farm location adjacent to the national forest and within a floodplain and on dry soils, higher proportion of farmland in pasture and higher elevation and population density. Alternatively, the probability of re-enrollment was found to be lower closer to an interstate highway, predominant farm location adjacent to the national refuge and higher proportion of farmland in row crops. The probability of CRP re-enrollment was found to be higher at higher CRP rental rates, lower commodity prices, lower cropland acreage, and lower proportion of farmland in cropland. For two additional important determinants, the probability of re-enrollment was found to be higher for lower proportion of cropland enrolled in CRP and in cases where the farmer was both the owner and operator. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the spatial heterogeneity of farms and land parcels (as accounted by spatial variables that were found to be relevant) should be taken into account while malting the plans for the CRP re-enrollment for the 2007 farm

  7. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean


    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  8. Flow structure in front of the broad-crested weir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachoval Zbyněk


    Full Text Available The paper deals with research focused on description of flow structure in front of broad-crested weir. Based on experimental measurement, the flow structure in front of the weir (the recirculation zone of flow and tornado vortices and flow structure on the weir crest has been described. The determined flow character has been simulated using numerical model and based on comparing results the suitable model of turbulence has been recommended.

  9. Covering tree with stars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumbach, Jan; Guo, Jian-Ying; Ibragimov, Rashid


    We study the tree edit distance problem with edge deletions and edge insertions as edit operations. We reformulate a special case of this problem as Covering Tree with Stars (CTS): given a tree T and a set of stars, can we connect the stars in by adding edges between them such that the resulting ...

  10. Hydrological Responses of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes in Tao'er River Basin Based on the SWAT Model (United States)

    Liu, J.; Kou, L.


    Abstract: The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impact on the water resources. For Tao'er River Basin, these changes have a direct impact on the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connection project between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, etc. Therefore, studying the impact of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as the research method. With historical actual measured runoff data and the yearly land use classification caught by satellite remote sensing maps, analyze the impact of climate change on the runoff of Tao'er River. And according to the land use/cover classification of 1990, 2000 and 2010, analyze the land use/cover change in the recent 30 years, the impact of the land use/cover change on the river runoff and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland and other major land-use types to the runoff. These studies can provide some references to the rational allocation of water resource and adjustment of land use structure in this area.

  11. Sky cover from MFRSR observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kassianov


    Full Text Available The diffuse all-sky surface irradiances measured at two nearby wavelengths in the visible spectral range and their modeled clear-sky counterparts are the main components of a new method for estimating the fractional sky cover of different cloud types, including cumuli. The performance of this method is illustrated using 1-min resolution data from a ground-based Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR. The MFRSR data are collected at the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF Southern Great Plains (SGP site during the summer of 2007 and represent 13 days with cumuli. Good agreement is obtained between estimated values of the fractional sky cover and those provided by a well-established independent method based on broadband observations.

  12. Structural integrity assessment of HANARO pool cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Jeong Soo


    This report is for the seismic analysis and the structural integrity evaluation of HANARO Pool Cover in accordances with the requirement of the Technical Specification for Seismic Analysis of HANARO Pool Cover. For performing the seismic analysis and evaluating the structural integrity for HANARO Pool Cover, the finite element analysis model using ANSYS 5.7 was developed and the dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The seismic response spectrum analyses of HANARO Pool Cover under the design floor response spectrum loads of OBE and SSE were performed. The analysis results show that the stress values in HANARO Pool Cover for the seismic loads are within the ASME Code limits. It is also confirmed that the fatigue usage factor is less than 1.0. Therefore any damage on structural integrity is not expected when an HANARO Pool Cover is installed in the upper part of the reactor pool

  13. Assessing climate change impacts on winter cover crop nitrate uptake efficiency on the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed using the SWAT model (United States)

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW). Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in this region owing to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, little is known about climate change impacts on the ef...

  14. Using cluster analysis and a classification and regression tree model to developed cover types in the Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona [Abstract (United States)

    Jose M. Iniguez; Joseph L. Ganey; Peter J. Daugherty; John D. Bailey


    The objective of this study was to develop a rule based cover type classification system for the forest and woodland vegetation in the Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. In order to develop such system we qualitatively and quantitatively compared a hierarchical (Ward’s) and a non-hierarchical (k-means) clustering method. Ecologically, unique groups and plots...

  15. The assessment of data mining algorithms for modelling Savannah woody cover using multi-frequency (X-, C- and L-band) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) datasets

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, L


    Full Text Available The woody component in African Savannahs provides essential ecosystem services such as fuel wood and construction timber to large populations of rural communities. Woody canopy cover (i.e. the percentage area occupied by woody canopy or CC) is a key...

  16. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model (United States)

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

  17. Alternative cover design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The special study on Alternative Cover Designs is one of several studies initiated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in response to the proposed US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) groundwater standards. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of minimizing the infiltration of precipitation through stabilized tailings piles by altering the standard design of covers currently used on the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Prior. to the issuance of the proposed standards, UMTRA Project piles had common design elements to meet the required criteria, the most important of which were for radon diffusion, long-term stability, erosion protection, and groundwater protection. The standard pile covers consisted of three distinct layers. From top to bottom they were: rock for erosion protection; a sand bedding layer; and the radon barrier, usually consisting of a clayey sand material, which also functioned to limit infiltration into the tailings. The piles generally had topslopes from 2 to 4 percent and sideslopes of 20 percent

  18. Evidence for a Broad Autism Phenotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. de Groot (Kristel); J.W. van Strien (Jan)


    textabstractThe broad autism phenotype implies the existence of a continuum ranging from individuals displaying almost no autistic traits to severely impaired diagnosed individuals. Recent studies have linked this variation in autistic traits to several domains of functioning. However, studies

  19. 33 CFR 117.921 - Broad River. (United States)


    ... OPERATION REGULATIONS Specific Requirements South Carolina § 117.921 Broad River. (a) The draw of the S170 bridge, mile 14.0 near Beaufort, shall open on signal if at least 24 hours notice is given. (b) The draw...

  20. Education and Broad Concepts of Agency (United States)

    Winch, Christopher


    Drawing on recent debates about the relationship between propositional and practical knowledge, this article is concerned with broad concepts of agency. Specifically, it is concerned with agency that involves the forming and putting into effect of intentions over relatively extended periods, particularly in work contexts (called, for want of a…

  1. Modelling and analysis of a heating system for industrial application, using flat-plate solar-collectors with single and double cover glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maraslis, A.A.


    A calculational methodology for dimensioning a flat-plate solar-collector arrangement, which fulfils the energy requirement of a heat transfer system in one of the steps of the uranium recovery process, from the uranium-phosphorus ore at Itataia, Ceara, in Brazil. The PROSOL-1 and PROSOL-2 computer codes for determining the total area required by collector arrangement-with single and double cover glasses, respectively- taking into account the system design and meteorological conditions of the regions, were used. These codes optimize the series/parallel arranges of collectors in the whole complex and, determine the water flow in each system and the average efficiency of the collector arrangement. The technical and economical feasibility for both collector arrangement with single and double cover glasses, were verified. It was concluded that, the last one is more advantageous, allowing a reduction of 30% in the total collector area. (M.C.K.) [pt

  2. Assessment of the Effectiveness of Clay Soil Covers as Engineered Barriers in Waste Disposal Facilities with Emphasis on Modeling Cracking Behavior (United States)


    standard proctor hammer (ASTM D698), which was dropped a sufficient number of times to achieve the desired dry density ERDC TR-08-7 34 Figure...using a standard proctor hammer to an equivalent dry density as was found in Experiment 1. ERDC TR-08-7 45 Figure 25. Sample container for...ER D C TR -0 8- 7 Assessment of the Effectiveness of Clay Soil Covers as Engineered Barriers in Waste Disposal Facilities with Emphasis

  3. Covering tree with stars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumbach, Jan; Guo, Jiong; Ibragimov, Rashid


    We study the tree edit distance problem with edge deletions and edge insertions as edit operations. We reformulate a special case of this problem as Covering Tree with Stars (CTS): given a tree T and a set of stars, can we connect the stars in by adding edges between them such that the resulting...... tree is isomorphic to T? We prove that in the general setting, CST is NP-complete, which implies that the tree edit distance considered here is also NP-hard, even when both input trees having diameters bounded by 10. We also show that, when the number of distinct stars is bounded by a constant k, CTS...

  4. Alternate cover materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    As an effort to enhance compliance with the proposed US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) groundwater standards, several special studies are being performed by the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) to identify and evaluate various design features that may reduce groundwater-related releases from tailings piles. The objective of this special study is to assess the suitability of using alternate cover materials (other than geomembranes) as infiltration barriers in Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project piles to minimize leachate generation. The materials evaluated in this study include various types of asphalts, concretes, and a sodium bentonite clay/polypropylene liner system

  5. Effects of prolonged drought on the vegetation cover of sand dunes in the NW Negev Desert: Field survey, remote sensing and conceptual modeling (United States)

    Siegal, Z.; Tsoar, H.; Karnieli, A.


    Luminescence dating of stable sand dunes in the large deserts of the world has shown several episodes of mobility during the last 30 k years. The logical explanation for the mobility of fixed dunes is severe drought. Though drought length can be estimated, the level of precipitation drop is unknown. The stabilized sand dunes of the northwestern Negev Desert, Israel have been under an unprecedented prolonged drought since 1995. This has resulted in a vast decrease of shrubs cover on the fixed sand dunes, which changes along the rainfall gradient. In the north, an average of 27% of the shrubs had wilted by 2009, and in the drier southern area, 68% of the shrubs had withered. This loss of shrubbery is not expected to induce dune remobilization because the existing bio-crust cover is not negatively affected by the drought. Eleven aerial photographs taken over the drier southern area from 1956 to 2005 show the change in shrub cover due to human impact and the recent severe drought.

  6. Carbon mapping of Argentine savannas: Using fractional tree cover to scale from field to region (United States)

    González-Roglich, M.; Swenson, J. J.


    Programs which intend to maintain or enhance carbon (C) stocks in natural ecosystems are promising, but require detailed and spatially explicit C distribution models to monitor the effectiveness of management interventions. Savanna ecosystems are significant components of the global C cycle, covering about one fifth of the global land mass, but they have received less attention in C monitoring protocols. Our goal was to estimate C storage across a broad savanna ecosystem using field surveys and freely available satellite images. We first mapped tree canopies at 2.5 m resolution with a spatial subset of high resolution panchromatic images to then predict regional wall-to-wall tree percent cover using 30-m Landsat imagery and the Random Forests algorithms. We found that a model with summer and winter spectral indices from Landsat, climate and topography performed best. Using a linear relationship between C and % tree cover, we then predicted tree C stocks across the gradient of tree cover, explaining 87 % of the variability. The spatially explicit validation of the tree C model with field-measured C-stocks revealed an RMSE of 8.2 tC/ha which represented ~30% of the mean C stock for areas with tree cover, comparable to studies based on more advanced remote sensing methods, such as LiDAR and RADAR. Sample spatial distribution highly affected the performance of the RF models in predicting tree cover, raising concerns regarding the predictive capabilities of the model in areas for which training data is not present. The 50,000 km2 has ~41 Tg C, which could be released to the atmosphere if agricultural pressure intensifies in this semiarid savanna.

  7. Fourier evaluation of broad Moessbauer spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincze, I.


    It is shown by the Fourier analysis of broad Moessbauer spectra that the even part of the distribution of the dominant hyperfine interaction (hyperfine field or quadrupole splitting) can be obtained directly without using least-square fitting procedures. Also the odd part of this distribution correlated with other hyperfine parameters (e.g. isomer shift) can be directly determined. Examples for amorphous magnetic and paramagnetic iron-based alloys are presented. (author)

  8. Performance study of a laboratory model shallow solar pond with and without single transparent glass cover for solar thermal energy conversion applications. (United States)

    Ganesh, S; Arumugam, S


    The thermal performance of a shallow solar pond with and without the single transparent glass cover has been investigated experimentally. This experiment has been performed during the summer season of 2014 under the operational condition for five different storage volumes of water upto a maximum of 10liter. The pond performance is investigated in terms of the rate of energy collected and its collection efficiency. A Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) black sheet liner of 200μm thickness was laid on all the interior sides of the pond for solar energy absorption. A clear transparent PVC plastic sheet of 150μm thickness was laid over the water surface as evaporation suppressing membrane. Calibrated Copper constantan thermocouples were used to measure the temperatures of the system. A highest temperature of 81.5°C has been achieved for the stored volume of 2liter of water, when the pond was used with a single transparent glass cover of 5mm thickness. When the shallow solar pond was used without the transparent glass cover the system attained a maximum temperature of 62°C for the same stored volume of 2liter. A comparison between the two conditions of with and without the transparent glass cover, on the thermal performance of the SSP has been reported. A shallow solar pond system of the present type could be used us a source of warm water, of desired temperature, below 10°C which are required for the domestic and industrial utilities. The global warming is increased day by day; inorder to reduce global warming a typical method of small scale shallow solar pond has been used to absorb the radiation from the sun to convert it to useful heat energy by the source of water. The SSP is an eco friendly way to generate energy without polluting our environment and in an environment safety manner. Based on environmental safety this study has experimentally investigated the thermal performance of the shallow solar pond. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Soft X-ray variability and the covering fraction of active galactic nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wachter, K.W.; Strauss, M.A.; Filippenko, A.V.


    A model to explain the observed soft X-ray variability to some low-luminosity Seyfert 1 galaxies is developed. The variability is due to changes in the covering fraction of the central source as broad-line clouds move across our line of sight. A formalism is developed which is used to demonstrate how analysis of a soft X-ray light curve can provide three important quantities: the radius of the X-ray emitting region, the radius of a typical broad-line cloud, and the electron density in the cloud. It is shown that the results are rather insensitive to the assumed radial dependence of the surface brightness of the source, but are quite sensitive to a large dispersion in cloud sizes. 55 references

  10. Analysis of streamflow response to land use and land cover changes using satellite data and hydrological modelling: case study of Dinder and Rahad tributaries of the Blue Nile (Ethiopia-Sudan) (United States)

    Hassaballah, Khalid; Mohamed, Yasir; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Biro, Khalid


    Understanding the land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) and their implication on surface hydrology of the Dinder and Rahad basins (D&R, approximately 77 504 km2) is vital for the management and utilization of water resources in the basins. Although there are many studies on LULCC in the Blue Nile Basin, specific studies on LULCC in the D&R are still missing. Hence, its impact on streamflow is unknown. The objective of this paper is to understand the LULCC in the Dinder and Rahad and its implications on streamflow response using satellite data and hydrological modelling. The hydrological model has been derived by different sets of land use and land cover maps from 1972, 1986, 1998 and 2011. Catchment topography, land cover and soil maps are derived from satellite images and serve to estimate model parameters. Results of LULCC detection between 1972 and 2011 indicate a significant decrease in woodland and an increase in cropland. Woodland decreased from 42 to 14 % and from 35 to 14 % for Dinder and Rahad, respectively. Cropland increased from 14 to 47 % and from 18 to 68 % in Dinder and Rahad, respectively. The model results indicate that streamflow is affected by LULCC in both the Dinder and the Rahad rivers. The effect of LULCC on streamflow is significant during 1986 and 2011. This could be attributed to the severe drought during the mid-1980s and the recent large expansion in cropland.

  11. Broad beam ion sources and some surface processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, H.; Scholze, F.; Tarz, M.; Schindler, A.; Wiese, R.; Nestler, M.; Blum, T.


    Modern broad-beam multi-aperture ion sources are widely used in material and surface technology applications. Customizing the generated ion beam properties (i. e. the ion current density profile) for specific demands of the application is a main challenge in the improvement of the ion beam technologies. First we introduce ion sources based on different plasma excitation principles shortly. An overview of source plasma and ion beam measurement methods deliver input data for modelling methods. This beam profile modelling using numerical trajectory codes and the validation of the results by Faraday cup measurements as a basis for ion beam profile design are described. Furthermore possibilities for ex situ and in situ beam profile control are demonstrated, like a special method for in situ control of a linear ion source beam profile, a grid modification for circular beam profile design and a cluster principle for broad beam sources. By means of these methods, the beam shape may be adapted to specific technological demands. Examples of broad beam source application in ion beam figuring of optical surfaces, modification of stainless steel, photo voltaic processes and deposition of EUVL-multilayer stacks are finally presented. (Author)


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stocke, John T.; Danforth, Charles W.; Perlman, Eric S.


    We present far-UV HST/COS spectra of four nearby BL Lac objects. BL Lac spectra are dominated by a smooth, power-law continuum which arises in a relativistic jet. However, the spectra are not necessarily featureless; weak, broad- and/or narrow-line emission is sometimes seen in high-quality optical spectra. We present detections of Lyα emission in HST/COS spectra of Mrk 421 (z = 0.030) and PKS 2005-489 (z = 0.071) as well as an archival HST/GHRS observation of Mrk 501 (z = 0.0337). Archival HST/STIS observations of PKS 2155-304 (z = 0.116) show no Lyα emission to a very low upper limit. Using the assumption that the broad-line region (BLR) clouds are symmetrically placed around the active galactic nucleus (AGN), we use these measured Lyα emission features to constrain either the relativistic Γ values for the ionizing continuum produced by the jet (in the ionization-bounded case) or the mass of warm gas (in the density-bounded case). While realistic Γ values can be obtained for all four cases, the values for Mrk 421 and PKS 2155-304 are high enough to suggest that covering factors of BLR clouds of ∼1%-2% might be required to provide consistency with earlier values of Doppler boosting and viewing angles suggested for this class of BL Lacs. This discrepancy also exists in the case of M 87, where the amount of Doppler boosting in our direction is expected to be minimal, again suggestive of a small covering factor of BLR clouds. If, as these small covering factors might suggest, the assumptions of a density-bounded model could be more correct, then the observed Lyα luminosities require that BL Lac/FR 1 nuclei possess very little warm gas (10 -4 to 10 -5 M sun ) as suggested by Guilbert et al. If these clouds are in pressure balance with a hotter (∼10 6 K) gas, the BLR contains too little mass to power the AGN by accretion alone.

  13. Visual attention spreads broadly but selects information locally. (United States)

    Shioiri, Satoshi; Honjyo, Hajime; Kashiwase, Yoshiyuki; Matsumiya, Kazumichi; Kuriki, Ichiro


    Visual attention spreads over a range around the focus as the spotlight metaphor describes. Spatial spread of attentional enhancement and local selection/inhibition are crucial factors determining the profile of the spatial attention. Enhancement and ignorance/suppression are opposite effects of attention, and appeared to be mutually exclusive. Yet, no unified view of the factors has been provided despite their necessity for understanding the functions of spatial attention. This report provides electroencephalographic and behavioral evidence for the attentional spread at an early stage and selection/inhibition at a later stage of visual processing. Steady state visual evoked potential showed broad spatial tuning whereas the P3 component of the event related potential showed local selection or inhibition of the adjacent areas. Based on these results, we propose a two-stage model of spatial attention with broad spread at an early stage and local selection at a later stage.

  14. Flow characteristics at trapezoidal broad-crested side weir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Říha Jaromír


    Full Text Available Broad-crested side weirs have been the subject of numerous hydraulic studies; however, the flow field at the weir crest and in front of the weir in the approach channel still has not been fully described. Also, the discharge coefficient of broad-crested side weirs, whether slightly inclined towards the stream or lateral, still has yet to be clearly determined. Experimental research was carried out to describe the flow characteristics at low Froude numbers in the approach flow channel for various combinations of in- and overflow discharges. Three side weir types with different oblique angles were studied. Their flow characteristics and discharge coefficients were analyzed and assessed based on the results obtained from extensive measurements performed on a hydraulic model. The empirical relation between the angle of side weir obliqueness, Froude numbers in the up- and downstream channels, and the coefficient of obliqueness was derived.

  15. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep


    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  16. Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate (United States)

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.


    Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

  17. National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Land Cover Collection (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Land Cover Collection is produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC)...

  18. The broad utility of Trizac diamond tile (United States)

    Gagliardi, John I.; Romero, Vincent D.; Sventek, Bruce; Zu, Lijun


    Sample finishing data from a broad range of materials — glasses, sapphire, silicon carbide, silicon, zirconium oxide, lithium tantalate, and flooring materials — are shown effectively processed with Trizact™ Diamond Tile (TDT). This data should provide the reader with an understanding of what to expect when using TDT on hard to grind or brittle materials. Keys to maintaining effective TDT pad wear rates, and therefore cost effect and stable processes, are described as managing 1) the proper lubricant flow rate for glasses and silicon-type materials and 2) the conditioning particle concentration for harder-to-grind materials

  19. Hydrological model parameterization using NDVI values to account for the effects of land-cover change on the rainfall-runoff response (United States)

    Classic rainfall-runoff models usually use historical data to estimate model parameters and mean values of parameters are considered for predictions. However, due to climate changes and human effects, the parameters of model change temporally. To overcome this problem, Normalized Difference Vegetati...

  20. Evaluation of the Effects of Temporary Covered Nitinol Stent Placement in the Prostatic Urethra: Short-Term Study in the Canine Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crisostomo, Veronica; Song, Ho Young; Maynar, Manuel; Sun, Fei; Soria, Federico; Lima, Juan Rafael; Yoon, Chang Jin; Uson-Gargallo, Jesus


    Purpose. To evaluate the effect of temporary stent placement on the canine prostatic urethra. Methods. Retrievable PTFE-covered nitinol stents were placed in the prostatic urethras of 8 beagle dogs under fluoroscopic guidance. Retrograde urethrography was obtained before and after stenting. Retrograde urethrography and endoscopy were performed 1 and 2 months after deployment. The endoscopic degree of hyperplasia was rated on a scale of 0 to 4 (0 absence, 4 = occlusion). On day 60, stents were removed and urethrography was performed immediately before euthanasia. Pathologic analysis was performed to determine the degree of glandular atrophy, periurethral fibrosis, and urethral dilation. Results. Stent deployment was technically successful in 7 animals, and failed in 1 dog due to a narrow urethral lumen. Complete migration was seen in 2 animals at 1 month, and an additional stent was deployed. On day 30, endoscopy showed slight hyperplasia (grade 1) in 3 animals. On day 60, moderate hyperplasia (grade 2) was evidenced in 4 cases. No impairment of urinary flow was seen during follow-up. Retrieval was technically easy to perform, and was successful in all dogs. The major histologic findings were chronic inflammatory cell infiltrates; prostate glandular atrophy, with a mean value of 1.86 (SD 0.90); periurethral fibrosis, with a mean ratio of 29.37 (SD 10.41); and dilatation of the prostatic urethra, with a mean ratio of 6.75 (SD 3.22). Conclusion. Temporary prostatic stent placement in dogs is safe and feasible, causing marked enlargement of the prostatic urethral lumen. Retrievable covered stents may therefore be an option for bladder outlet obstruction management in men


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ichikawa, Kohei; Ueda, Yoshihiro [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa-Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Packham, Christopher; Lopez-Rodriguez, Enrique; Alsip, Crystal D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Almeida, Cristina Ramos; Ramos, Andrés Asensio; González-Martín, Omaira [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, C/Vía Láctea, s/n, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Alonso-Herrero, Almudena [Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria, E-39005 Santander (Spain); Díaz-Santos, Tanio [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, MS 220-6, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Elitzur, Moshe [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0055 (United States); Hönig, Sebastian F. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Imanishi, Masatoshi [Subaru Telescope, 650 North A’ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Levenson, Nancy A. [Gemini Observatory, Southern Operations Center, c/o AURA, Casilla 603, La Serena (Chile); Mason, Rachel E. [Gemini Observatory, Northern Operations Center, 670 N. A’ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Perlman, Eric S., E-mail: [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, 150 W. University Blvd., Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States)


    We present results from the fitting of infrared (IR) spectral energy distributions of 21 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with clumpy torus models. We compiled high spatial resolution (∼0.3–0.7 arcsec) mid-IR (MIR) N-band spectroscopy, Q-band imaging, and nuclear near- and MIR photometry from the literature. Combining these nuclear near- and MIR observations, far-IR photometry, and clumpy torus models enables us to put constraints on the torus properties and geometry. We divide the sample into three types according to the broad line region (BLR) properties: type-1s, type-2s with scattered or hidden broad line region (HBLR) previously observed, and type-2s without any published HBLR signature (NHBLR). Comparing the torus model parameters gives us the first quantitative torus geometrical view for each subgroup. We find that NHBLR AGNs have smaller torus opening angles and larger covering factors than HBLR AGNs. This suggests that the chance to observe scattered (polarized) flux from the BLR in NHBLR could be reduced by the dual effects of (a) less scattering medium due to the reduced scattering volume given the small torus opening angle and (b) the increased torus obscuration between the observer and the scattering region. These effects give a reasonable explanation for the lack of observed HBLR in some type-2 AGNs.

  2. Allegheny County Land Cover Areas (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Land Cover dataset demarcates 14 land cover types by area; such as Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Forest, Agriculture, etc. If viewing this description on...

  3. On approximating restricted cycle covers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manthey, Bodo


    A cycle cover of a graph is a set of cycles such that every vertex is part of exactly one cycle. An $L$-cycle cover is a cycle cover in which the length of every cycle is in the set $L$. The weight of a cycle cover of an edge-weighted graph is the sum of the weights of its edges. We come close to

  4. Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Daniel; Jun, Hyunsung D. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 169-221, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Donalek, Ciro; Drake, Andrew J.; Mahabal, Ashish A.; Steidel, Charles C. [California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Arav, Nahum; Chamberlain, Carter [Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Barth, Aaron J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4129 Frederick Reines Hall, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Glikman, Eilat, E-mail: [Department of Physics, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 05753 (United States)


    CRTS J084133.15+200525.8 is an optically bright quasar at z = 2.345 that has shown extreme spectral variability over the past decade. Photometrically, the source had a visual magnitude of V ∼ 17.3 between 2002 and 2008. Then, over the following five years, the source slowly brightened by approximately one magnitude, to V ∼ 16.2. Only ∼1 in 10,000 quasars show such extreme variability, as quantified by the extreme parameters derived for this quasar assuming a damped random walk model. A combination of archival and newly acquired spectra reveal the source to be an iron low-ionization broad absorption line quasar with extreme changes in its absorption spectrum. Some absorption features completely disappear over the 9 years of optical spectra, while other features remain essentially unchanged. We report the first definitive redshift for this source, based on the detection of broad H α in a Keck/MOSFIRE spectrum. Absorption systems separated by several 1000 km s{sup −1} in velocity show coordinated weakening in the depths of their troughs as the continuum flux increases. We interpret the broad absorption line variability to be due to changes in photoionization, rather than due to motion of material along our line of sight. This source highlights one sort of rare transition object that astronomy will now be finding through dedicated time-domain surveys.

  5. Broad-Band Analysis of Polar Motion Excitations (United States)

    Chen, J.


    Earth rotational changes, i.e. polar motion and length-of-day (LOD), are driven by two types of geophysical excitations: 1) mass redistribution within the Earth system, and 2) angular momentum exchange between the solid Earth (more precisely the crust) and other components of the Earth system. Accurate quantification of Earth rotational excitations has been difficult, due to the lack of global-scale observations of mass redistribution and angular momentum exchange. The over 14-years time-variable gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have provided a unique means for quantifying Earth rotational excitations from mass redistribution in different components of the climate system. Comparisons between observed Earth rotational changes and geophysical excitations estimated from GRACE, satellite laser ranging (SLR) and climate models show that GRACE-derived excitations agree remarkably well with polar motion observations over a broad-band of frequencies. GRACE estimates also suggest that accelerated polar region ice melting in recent years and corresponding sea level rise have played an important role in driving long-term polar motion as well. With several estimates of polar motion excitations, it is possible to estimate broad-band noise variance and noise power spectra in each, given reasonable assumptions about noise independence. Results based on GRACE CSR RL05 solutions clearly outperform other estimates with the lowest noise levels over a broad band of frequencies.

  6. Gainesville's urban forest canopy cover (United States)

    Francisco Escobedo; Jennifer A. Seitz; Wayne Zipperer


    Ecosystem benefits from trees are linked directly to the amount of healthy urban forest canopy cover. Urban forest cover is dynamic and changes over time due to factors such as urban development, windstorms, tree removals, and growth. The amount of a city's canopy cover depends on its land use, climate, and people's preferences. This fact sheet examines how...

  7. Broad spectrum antiangiogenic treatment for ocular neovascular diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofra Benny


    Full Text Available Pathological neovascularization is a hallmark of late stage neovascular (wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD and the leading cause of blindness in people over the age of 50 in the western world. The treatments focus on suppression of choroidal neovascularization (CNV, while current approved therapies are limited to inhibiting vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF exclusively. However, this treatment does not address the underlying cause of AMD, and the loss of VEGF's neuroprotective can be a potential side effect. Therapy which targets the key processes in AMD, the pathological neovascularization, vessel leakage and inflammation could bring a major shift in the approach to disease treatment and prevention. In this study we have demonstrated the efficacy of such broad spectrum antiangiogenic therapy on mouse model of AMD.Lodamin, a polymeric formulation of TNP-470, is a potent broad-spectrum antiangiogenic drug. Lodamin significantly reduced key processes involved in AMD progression as demonstrated in mice and rats. Its suppressive effects on angiogenesis, vascular leakage and inflammation were studied in a wide array of assays including; a Matrigel, delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH, Miles assay, laser-induced CNV and corneal micropocket assay. Lodamin significantly suppressed the secretion of various pro-inflammatory cytokines in the CNV lesion including monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1/Ccl2. Importantly, Lodamin was found to regress established CNV lesions, unlike soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlk-1. The drug was found to be safe in mice and have little toxicity as demonstrated by electroretinography (ERG assessing retinal and by histology.Lodamin, a polymer formulation of TNP-470, was identified as a first in its class, broad-spectrum antiangiogenic drug that can be administered orally or locally to treat corneal and retinal neovascularization. Several unique properties make Lodamin especially beneficial for ophthalmic

  8. Broad ion beam serial section tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winiarski, B., E-mail: [School of Materials, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Materials Division, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington TW11 0LW (United Kingdom); Gholinia, A. [School of Materials, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Mingard, K.; Gee, M. [Materials Division, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington TW11 0LW (United Kingdom); Thompson, G.E.; Withers, P.J. [School of Materials, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom)


    Here we examine the potential of serial Broad Ion Beam (BIB) Ar{sup +} ion polishing as an advanced serial section tomography (SST) technique for destructive 3D material characterisation for collecting data from volumes with lateral dimensions significantly greater than 100 µm and potentially over millimetre sized areas. Further, the associated low level of damage introduced makes BIB milling very well suited to 3D EBSD acquisition with very high indexing rates. Block face serial sectioning data registration schemes usually assume that the data comprises a series of parallel, planar slices. We quantify the variations in slice thickness and parallelity which can arise when using BIB systems comparing Gatan PECS and Ilion BIB systems for large volume serial sectioning and 3D-EBSD data acquisition. As a test case we obtain 3D morphologies and grain orientations for both phases of a WC-11%wt. Co hardmetal. In our case we have carried out the data acquisition through the manual transfer of the sample between SEM and BIB which is a very slow process (1–2 slice per day), however forthcoming automated procedures will markedly speed up the process. We show that irrespective of the sectioning method raw large area 2D-EBSD maps are affected by distortions and artefacts which affect 3D-EBSD such that quantitative analyses and visualisation can give misleading and erroneous results. Addressing and correcting these issues will offer real benefits when large area (millimetre sized) automated serial section BIBS is developed. - Highlights: • In this work we examine how microstructures can be reconstructed in three-dimensions (3D) by serial argon broad ion beam (BIB) milling, enabling much larger volumes (>250×250×100µm{sup 3}) to be acquired than by serial section focused ion beam-scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM). • The associated low level of damage introduced makes BIB milling very well suited to 3D-EBSD acquisition with very high indexing rates. • We explore

  9. Model for Predicting DC Flashover Voltage of Pre-Contaminated and Ice-Covered Long Insulator Strings under Low Air Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhijin Zhang


    Full Text Available In the current study, a multi-arc predicting model for DC critical flashover voltage of iced and pre-contaminated long insulator strings under low atmospheric pressure is developed. The model is composed of a series of different polarity surface arcs, icicle-icicle air gap arcs, and residual layer resistance. The calculation method of the residual resistance of the ice layer under DC multi-arc condition is established. To validate the model, 7-unit and 15-unit insulator strings were tested in a multi-function artificial climate chamber under the coexistent conditions of low air pressure, pollution, and icing. The test results showed that the values calculated by the model satisfactorily agreed with those experimentally measured, with the errors within the range of 10%, validating the rationality of the model.

  10. Coupling an Intercalibration of Radiance-Calibrated Nighttime Light Images and Land Use/Cover Data for Modeling and Analyzing the Distribution of GDP in Guangdong, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyang Cao


    Full Text Available Spatialized GDP data is important for studying the relationships between human activities and environmental changes. Rapid and accurate acquisition of these datasets are therefore a significant area of study. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS radiance-calibrated nighttime light (RC NTL images exhibit the potential for providing superior estimates for GDP spatialization, as they are not restricted by the saturated pixels which exist in nighttime stable light (NSL images. However, the drawback of light overflow is the limited accuracy of GDP estimation, and GDP data estimations based on RC NTL images cannot be directly used for temporal analysis due to a lack of on-board calibration. This study develops an intercalibration method to address the comparability problem. Additionally, NDVI images are used to reduce the light overflow effect. In this way, the secondary and tertiary industry outputs are estimated by using intercalibrated RC NTL images. Primary industry production is estimated by using land use/cover data. Ultimately, four 1 km gridded GDP maps of Guangdong for 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2010 are generated. The verification results of the proposed intercalibration method demonstrate that this method is reasonable and can be effectively implemented. These maps can be used to analyze the distribution and spatiotemporal changes of GDP density in Guangdong.

  11. Spectrophotometry of six broad absorption line QSOs (United States)

    Junkkarinen, Vesa T.; Burbidge, E. Margaret; Smith, Harding E.


    Spectrophotometric observations of six broad absorption-line QSOs (BALQSOs) are presented. The continua and emission lines are compared with those in the spectra of QSOs without BALs. A statistically significant difference is found in the emission-line intensity ratio for (N V 1240-A)/(C IV 1549-A). The median value of (N V)/(C IV) for the BALQSOs is two to three times the median for QSOs without BALs. The absorption features of the BALQSOs are described, and the column densities and limits on the ionization structure of the BAL region are discussed. If the dominant ionization mechanism is photoionization, then it is likely that either the ionizing spectrum is steep or the abundances are considerably different from solar. Collisional ionization may be a significant factor, but it cannot totally dominate the ionization rate.

  12. Study on broad beam heavy ion CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, Yumiko; Kohno, Toshiyuki; Sasaki, Hitomi; Nanbu, S.; Kanai, Tatsuaki


    To achieve the heavy ion radiotherapy more precisely, it is important to know the distribution of the electron density in a human body, which is highly related to the range of charged particles. From a heavy ion CT image, we can directly obtain the 2-D distribution of the electron density in a sample. For this purpose, we have developed a broad beam heavy ion CT system. The electron density was obtained using some kinds of solutions targets. Also the dependence of the spatial resolution on the target size and the kinds of beams was estimated in this work using cylinders targets of 40, 60 and 80 mm in diameter, each of them has a hole of 10 mm in diameter at the center of it. (author)

  13. Broad Ligament Haematoma Following Normal Vaginal Delivery. (United States)

    Ibrar, Faiza; Awan, Azra Saeed; Fatima, Touseef; Tabassum, Hina


    A 37-year-old, patient presented in emergency with history of normal vaginal delivery followed by development of abdominal distention, vomiting, constipation for last 3 days. She was para 4 and had normal vaginal delivery by traditional birth attendant at peripheral hospital 3 days back. Imaging study revealed a heterogeneous complex mass, ascites, pleural effusion, air fluid levels with dilatation gut loops. Based upon pelvic examination by senior gynaecologist in combination with ultrasound; a clinical diagnosis of broad ligament haematoma was made. However, vomiting and abdominal distention raised suspicion of intestinal obstruction. Due to worsening abdominal distention exploratory laparotomy was carried out. It was pseudo colonic obstruction and caecostomy was done. Timely intervention by multidisciplinary approach saved patient life with minimal morbidity.

  14. Forest cover of North America in the 1970s mapped using Landsat MSS data (United States)

    Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.


    The distribution and changes in Earth's forests impact hydrological, biogeochemical, and energy fluxes, as well as ecosystems' capacity to support biodiversity and human economies. Long-term records of forest cover are needed across a broad range of investigation, including climate and carbon-cycle modeling, hydrological studies, habitat analyzes, biological conservation, and land-use planning. Satellite-based observations enable mapping and monitoring of forests at ecologically and economically relevant resolutions and continental or even global extents. Following early forest-mapping efforts using coarser resolution remote sensing data such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), forests have been mapped regionally at developed by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) as reference, we developed an automated approach to detect forests using MSS data by leveraging the multispectral and phenological characteristics of forests observed in MSS time-series. The forest-cover map is produced with layers representing the year of observation, detection of forest-cover change relative to 1990, and the uncertainty of forest-cover and -change layers. The approach has been implemented with open-source libraries to facilitate processing large volumes of Landsat MSS images on high-performance computing machines. As the first result of our global mapping effort, we present the forest cover for North America. More than 25,000 Landsat MSS scenes were processed to provide a 120-meter resolution forest cover for North America, which will be made publicly available on the GLCF website (

  15. Scenarios of land cover in China (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan


    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  16. Improvement of a snow albedo parameterization in the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer model: evaluation of impacts of aerosol on seasonal snow cover (United States)

    Zhong, Efang; Li, Qian; Sun, Shufen; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Nath, Debashis


    The presence of light-absorbing aerosols (LAA) in snow profoundly influence the surface energy balance and water budget. However, most snow-process schemes in land-surface and climate models currently do not take this into consideration. To better represent the snow process and to evaluate the impacts of LAA on snow, this study presents an improved snow albedo parameterization in the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model, which includes the impacts of LAA on snow. Specifically, the Snow, Ice and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model is incorporated into the SAST model with an LAA mass stratigraphy scheme. The new coupled model is validated against in-situ measurements at the Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), Colorado, USA. Results show that the snow albedo and snow depth are better reproduced than those in the original SAST, particularly during the period of snow ablation. Furthermore, the impacts of LAA on snow are estimated in the coupled model through case comparisons of the snowpack, with or without LAA. The LAA particles directly absorb extra solar radiation, which accelerates the growth rate of the snow grain size. Meanwhile, these larger snow particles favor more radiative absorption. The average total radiative forcing of the LAA at the SASP is 47.5 W m-2. This extra radiative absorption enhances the snowmelt rate. As a result, the peak runoff time and "snow all gone" day have shifted 18 and 19.5 days earlier, respectively, which could further impose substantial impacts on the hydrologic cycle and atmospheric processes.

  17. Analysis of economic values of land use and land cover changes in crisis territories by satellite data: models of socio-economy and population dynamics in war (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Yuschenko, Maxim; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan


    Problem of remote sensing data harnessing for decision making in conflict territories is considered. Approach for analysis of socio-economic and demographic parameters with a limited set of data and deep uncertainty is described. Number of interlinked techniques to estimate a population and economy in crisis territories are proposed. Stochastic method to assessment of population dynamics using multi-source data using remote sensing data is proposed. Adaptive Markov's chain based method to study of land-use changes using satellite data is proposed. Proposed approach is applied to analysis of socio-economic situation in Donbas (East Ukraine) territory of conflict in 2014-2015. Land-use and landcover patterns for different periods were analyzed using the Landsat and MODIS data . The land-use classification scheme includes the following categories: (1) urban or built-up land, (2) barren land, (3) cropland, (4) horticulture farms, (5) livestock farms, (6) forest, and (7) water. It was demonstrated, that during the period 2014-2015 was not detected drastic changes in land-use structure of study area. Heterogeneously distributed decreasing of horticulture farms (4-6%), livestock farms (5-6%), croplands (3-4%), and increasing of barren land (6-7%) have been observed. Way to analyze land-cover productivity variations using satellite data is proposed. Algorithm is based on analysis of time-series of NDVI and NDWI distributions. Drastic changes of crop area and its productivity were detected. Set of indirect indicators, such as night light intensity, is also considered. Using the approach proposed, using the data utilized, the local and regional GDP, local population, and its dynamics are estimated.

  18. Energy determines broad pattern of plant distribution in Western Himalaya. (United States)

    Panda, Rajendra M; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Roy, Partha S; Biradar, Chandrashekhar


    Several factors describe the broad pattern of diversity in plant species distribution. We explore these determinants of species richness in Western Himalayas using high-resolution species data available for the area to energy, water, physiography and anthropogenic disturbance. The floral data involves 1279 species from 1178 spatial locations and 738 sample plots of a national database. We evaluated their correlation with 8-environmental variables, selected on the basis of correlation coefficients and principal component loadings, using both linear (structural equation model) and nonlinear (generalised additive model) techniques. There were 645 genera and 176 families including 815 herbs, 213 shrubs, 190 trees, and 61 lianas. The nonlinear model explained the maximum deviance of 67.4% and showed the dominant contribution of climate on species richness with a 59% share. Energy variables (potential evapotranspiration and temperature seasonality) explained the deviance better than did water variables (aridity index and precipitation of the driest quarter). Temperature seasonality had the maximum impact on the species richness. The structural equation model confirmed the results of the nonlinear model but less efficiently. The mutual influences of the climatic variables were found to affect the predictions of the model significantly. To our knowledge, the 67.4% deviance found in the species richness pattern is one of the highest values reported in mountain studies. Broadly, climate described by water-energy dynamics provides the best explanation for the species richness pattern. Both modeling approaches supported the same conclusion that energy is the best predictor of species richness. The dry and cold conditions of the region account for the dominant contribution of energy on species richness.

  19. Land cover change mapping using MODIS time series to improve emissions inventories (United States)

    López-Saldaña, Gerardo; Quaife, Tristan; Clifford, Debbie


    MELODIES is an FP7 funded project to develop innovative and sustainable services, based upon Open Data, for users in research, government, industry and the general public in a broad range of societal and environmental benefit areas. Understanding and quantifying land surface changes is necessary for estimating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, and for meeting air quality limits and targets. More sophisticated inventories methodologies for at least key emission source are needed due to policy-driven air quality directives. Quantifying land cover changes on an annual basis requires greater spatial and temporal disaggregation of input data. The main aim of this study is to develop a methodology for using Earth Observations (EO) to identify annual land surface changes that will improve emissions inventories from agriculture and land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the UK. First goal is to find the best sets of input features that describe accurately the surface dynamics. In order to identify annual and inter-annual land surface changes, a times series of surface reflectance was used to capture seasonal variability. Daily surface reflectance images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500m resolution were used to invert a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model to create the seamless time series. Given the limited number of cloud-free observations, a BRDF climatology was used to constrain the model inversion and where no high-scientific quality observations were available at all, as a gap filler. The Land Cover Map 2007 (LC2007) produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) was used for training and testing purposes. A land cover product was created for 2003 to 2015 and a bayesian approach was created to identified land cover changes. We will present the results of the time series development and the first exercises when creating the land cover and land cover changes products.

  20. Plant STAND P-loop NTPases: a current perspective of genome distribution, evolution, and function : Plant STAND P-loop NTPases: genomic organization, evolution, and molecular mechanism models contribute broadly to plant pathogen defense. (United States)

    Arya, Preeti; Acharya, Vishal


    STAND P-loop NTPase is the common weapon used by plant and other organisms from all three kingdoms of life to defend themselves against pathogen invasion. The purpose of this study is to review comprehensively the latest finding of plant STAND P-loop NTPase related to their genomic distribution, evolution, and their mechanism of action. Earlier, the plant STAND P-loop NTPase known to be comprised of only NBS-LRRs/AP-ATPase/NB-ARC ATPase. However, recent finding suggests that genome of early green plants comprised of two types of STAND P-loop NTPases: (1) mammalian NACHT NTPases and (2) NBS-LRRs. Moreover, YchF (unconventional G protein and members of P-loop NTPase) subfamily has been reported to be exceptionally involved in biotic stress (in case of Oryza sativa), thereby a novel member of STAND P-loop NTPase in green plants. The lineage-specific expansion and genome duplication events are responsible for abundance of plant STAND P-loop NTPases; where "moderate tandem and low segmental duplication" trajectory followed in majority of plant species with few exception (equal contribution of tandem and segmental duplication). Since the past decades, systematic research is being investigated into NBS-LRR function supported the direct recognition of pathogen or pathogen effectors by the latest models proposed via 'integrated decoy' or 'sensor domains' model. Here, we integrate the recently published findings together with the previous literature on the genomic distribution, evolution, and distinct models proposed for functional molecular mechanism of plant STAND P-loop NTPases.

  1. Simulation of surface temperature and ice cover of large northern lakes with 1-D models: a comparison with MODIS satellite data and in situ measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kheyrollah Pour


    Full Text Available Lake surface temperature (LST and ice phenology were simulated for various points differing in depth on Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake, two large lakes located in the Mackenzie River Basin in Canada's Northwest Territories, using the 1-D Freshwater Lake model (FLake and the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo over the 2002–2010 period, forced with data from three weather stations (Yellowknife, Hay River and Deline. LST model results were compared to those derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aboard the Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua satellite platforms. Simulated ice thickness and freeze-up/break-up dates were also compared to in situ observations. Both models showed a good agreement with daily average MODIS LSTs on an annual basis (0.935  ≤  relative index of agreement  ≤  0.984 and 0.94  ≤  mean bias error  ≤  4.83. The absence of consideration of snow on lake ice in FLake was found to have a large impact on estimated ice thicknesses (25 cm thicker on average by the end of winter compared to in situ measurements; 9 cm thicker for CLIMo and break-up dates (6 d earlier in comparison with in situ measurements; 3 d later for CLIMo. The overall agreement between the two models and MODIS LST products during both the open water and ice seasons was good. Remotely sensed data are a promising data source for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models, as they provide the spatial coverage that is not captured by in situ data.

  2. Broad-spectrum antiviral properties of andrographolide. (United States)

    Gupta, Swati; Mishra, K P; Ganju, Lilly


    Andrographolide, a diterpenoid, is known for its anti-inflammatory effects. It can be isolated from various plants of the genus Andrographis, commonly known as 'creat'. This purified compound has been tested for its anti-inflammatory effects in various stressful conditions, such as ischemia, pyrogenesis, arthritis, hepatic or neural toxicity, carcinoma, and oxidative stress, Apart from its anti-inflammatory effects, andrographolide also exhibits immunomodulatory effects by effectively enhancing cytotoxic T cells, natural killer (NK) cells, phagocytosis, and antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC). All these properties of andrographolide form the foundation for the use of this miraculous compound to restrain virus replication and virus-induced pathogenesis. The present article covers antiviral properties of andrographolide in variety of viral infections, with the hope of developing of a new highly potent antiviral drug with multiple effects.

  3. Crx broadly modulates the pineal transcriptome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rovsing, Louise; Clokie, Samuel; Bustos, Diego M


    Cone-rod homeobox (Crx) encodes Crx, a transcription factor expressed selectively in retinal photoreceptors and pinealocytes, the major cell type of the pineal gland. In this study, the influence of Crx on the mammalian pineal gland was studied by light and electron microscopy and by use of micro......Cone-rod homeobox (Crx) encodes Crx, a transcription factor expressed selectively in retinal photoreceptors and pinealocytes, the major cell type of the pineal gland. In this study, the influence of Crx on the mammalian pineal gland was studied by light and electron microscopy and by use......-type animals; only eight of these were also day/night expressed in the Crx-/- pineal gland. However, in the Crx-/- pineal gland 41 genes exhibited differential night/day expression that was not seen in wild-type animals. These findings indicate that Crx broadly modulates the pineal transcriptome and also...... influences differential night/day gene expression in this tissue. Some effects of Crx deletion on the pineal transcriptome might be mediated by Hoxc4 up-regulation....

  4. Sensitivity of selected landscape pattern metrics to land-cover misclassification and differences in land-cover composition (United States)

    James D. Wickham; Robert V. O' Neill; Kurt H. Riitters; Timothy G. Wade; K. Bruce Jones


    Calculation of landscape metrics from land-cover data is becoming increasingly common. Some studies have shown that these measurements are sensitive to differences in land-cover composition, but none are known to have tested also their a sensitivity to land-cover misclassification. An error simulation model was written to test the sensitivity of selected land-scape...

  5. Combinatorial aspects of covering arrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles J. Colbourn


    Full Text Available Covering arrays generalize orthogonal arrays by requiring that t -tuples be covered, but not requiring that the appearance of t -tuples be balanced.Their uses in screening experiments has found application in software testing, hardware testing, and a variety of fields in which interactions among factors are to be identified. Here a combinatorial view of covering arrays is adopted, encompassing basic bounds, direct constructions, recursive constructions, algorithmic methods, and applications.

  6. Urban Flooding Analysis Using Radar Rainfall Data and 2-D Hydrodynamic Model: A Pilot Study of Back Cover Area, Portland, Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Collis, Scott [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with a heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.

  7. GLCF: Landsat GeoCover (United States)

    satellite imagery provided in a standardized, orthorectified format, covering the entire land surface of the * Orthorectification * Distribution Status * Hard Media Orders * Letters Delivered Quick Links * Create True Color

  8. Large Scale Anthropogenic Reduction of Forest Cover in Last Glacial Maximum Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jed O Kaplan

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the vegetation of Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM are an enigma. Pollen-based analyses have suggested that Europe was largely covered by steppe and tundra, and forests persisted only in small refugia. Climate-vegetation model simulations on the other hand have consistently suggested that broad areas of Europe would have been suitable for forest, even in the depths of the last glaciation. Here we reconcile models with data by demonstrating that the highly mobile groups of hunter-gatherers that inhabited Europe at the LGM could have substantially reduced forest cover through the ignition of wildfires. Similar to hunter-gatherers of the more recent past, Upper Paleolithic humans were masters of the use of fire, and preferred inhabiting semi-open landscapes to facilitate foraging, hunting and travel. Incorporating human agency into a dynamic vegetation-fire model and simulating forest cover shows that even small increases in wildfire frequency over natural background levels resulted in large changes in the forested area of Europe, in part because trees were already stressed by low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the cold, dry, and highly variable climate. Our results suggest that the impact of humans on the glacial landscape of Europe may be one of the earliest large-scale anthropogenic modifications of the earth system.

  9. Large Scale Anthropogenic Reduction of Forest Cover in Last Glacial Maximum Europe. (United States)

    Kaplan, Jed O; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; Kolen, Jan C A; Davis, Basil A S


    Reconstructions of the vegetation of Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are an enigma. Pollen-based analyses have suggested that Europe was largely covered by steppe and tundra, and forests persisted only in small refugia. Climate-vegetation model simulations on the other hand have consistently suggested that broad areas of Europe would have been suitable for forest, even in the depths of the last glaciation. Here we reconcile models with data by demonstrating that the highly mobile groups of hunter-gatherers that inhabited Europe at the LGM could have substantially reduced forest cover through the ignition of wildfires. Similar to hunter-gatherers of the more recent past, Upper Paleolithic humans were masters of the use of fire, and preferred inhabiting semi-open landscapes to facilitate foraging, hunting and travel. Incorporating human agency into a dynamic vegetation-fire model and simulating forest cover shows that even small increases in wildfire frequency over natural background levels resulted in large changes in the forested area of Europe, in part because trees were already stressed by low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the cold, dry, and highly variable climate. Our results suggest that the impact of humans on the glacial landscape of Europe may be one of the earliest large-scale anthropogenic modifications of the earth system.

  10. The broad-band overlap problem in atmospheric trace gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subasilar, B.


    In relation to a better understanding of climate change and the related greenhouse problem, one way of projecting for the next decades is through general circulation models (GCMs). The only input as a driving force in the changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns is the amount of heat perturbation either due to natural or man-caused activities. Among these, CO 2 concentrations resulting from the latter has been observed to be accelerating at alarmingly high rates especially after the advent of the industrialization which just began in the last century. In addition to that, collective effects of other greenhouse gases (freons, SO 2 , H 2 O, CH 4 , etc.) are as important as CO 2 . Hence, it is evident from the above considerations that, in the predictions of climate models, the heat input which triggers changes in the atmospheric patterns, should be formulated accurately. In order to realize this objective, in this research, beginning with the available line parameter data, the problems of absorption have been investigated and attacked in the frame known as the broad band modeling since that is the only best and fastest manageable representation for GCMs. The first step was the construction of a full broad band (intra band overlap) model that was also flexible enough to accommodate the individual peculiarities of the bands. Before, the well known and very useful Ramanathan model had a limited applicability in the concentration scale, and it was also not systematically or successfully incorporated into an inter band overlap picture. Then, the established ideas that served as bases up to present, have been employed but found to have a limited practical applicability when it came to predict the inter band overlaps

  11. Moss and lichen cover mapping at local and regional scales in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada (United States)

    Rapalee, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Hall, F.G.


    Mosses and lichens are important components of boreal landscapes [Vitt et al., 1994; Bubier et al., 1997]. They affect plant productivity and belowground carbon sequestration and alter the surface runoff and energy balance. We report the use of multiresolution satellite data to map moss and lichens over the BOREAS region at a 10 m, 30 m, and 1 km scales. Our moss and lichen classification at the 10 m scale is based on ground observations of associations among soil drainage classes, overstory composition, and cover type among four broad classes of ground cover (feather, sphagnum, and brown mosses and lichens). For our 30 m map, we used field observations of ground cover-overstory associations to map mosses and lichens in the BOREAS southern study area (SSA). To scale up to a 1 km (AVHRR) moss map of the BOREAS region, we used the TM SSA mosaics plus regional field data to identify AVHRR overstory-ground cover associations. We found that: 1) ground cover, overstory composition and density are highly correlated, permitting inference of moss and lichen cover from satellite-based land cover classifications; 2) our 1 km moss map reveals that mosses dominate the boreal landscape of central Canada, thereby a significant factor for water, energy, and carbon modeling; 3) TM and AVHRR moss cover maps are comparable; 4) satellite data resolution is important; particularly in detecting the smaller wetland features, lakes, and upland jack pine sites; and 5) distinct regional patterns of moss and lichen cover correspond to latitudinal and elevational gradients. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  13. Response of dissolved trace metals to land use/land cover and their source apportionment using a receptor model in a subtropic river, China. (United States)

    Li, Siyue; Zhang, Quanfa


    Water samples were collected for determination of dissolved trace metals in 56 sampling sites throughout the upper Han River, China. Multivariate statistical analyses including correlation analysis, stepwise multiple linear regression models, and principal component and factor analysis (PCA/FA) were employed to examine the land use influences on trace metals, and a receptor model of factor analysis-multiple linear regression (FA-MLR) was used for source identification/apportionment of anthropogenic heavy metals in the surface water of the River. Our results revealed that land use was an important factor in water metals in the snow melt flow period and land use in the riparian zone was not a better predictor of metals than land use away from the river. Urbanization in a watershed and vegetation along river networks could better explain metals, and agriculture, regardless of its relative location, however slightly explained metal variables in the upper Han River. FA-MLR analysis identified five source types of metals, and mining, fossil fuel combustion, and vehicle exhaust were the dominant pollutions in the surface waters. The results demonstrated great impacts of human activities on metal concentrations in the subtropical river of China. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Operational monitoring of land-cover change using multitemporal remote sensing data (United States)

    Rogan, John


    Land-cover change, manifested as either land-cover modification and/or conversion, can occur at all spatial scales, and changes at local scales can have profound, cumulative impacts at broader scales. The implication of operational land-cover monitoring is that researchers have access to a continuous stream of remote sensing data, with the long term goal of providing for consistent and repetitive mapping. Effective large area monitoring of land-cover (i.e., >1000 km2) can only be accomplished by using remotely sensed images as an indirect data source in land-cover change mapping and as a source for land-cover change model projections. Large area monitoring programs face several challenges: (1) choice of appropriate classification scheme/map legend over large, topographically and phenologically diverse areas; (2) issues concerning data consistency and map accuracy (i.e., calibration and validation); (3) very large data volumes; (4) time consuming data processing and interpretation. Therefore, this dissertation research broadly addresses these challenges in the context of examining state-of-the-art image pre-processing, spectral enhancement, classification, and accuracy assessment techniques to assist the California Land-cover Mapping and Monitoring Program (LCMMP). The results of this dissertation revealed that spatially varying haze can be effectively corrected from Landsat data for the purposes of change detection. The Multitemporal Spectral Mixture Analysis (MSMA) spectral enhancement technique produced more accurate land-cover maps than those derived from the Multitemporal Kauth Thomas (MKT) transformation in northern and southern California study areas. A comparison of machine learning classifiers showed that Fuzzy ARTMAP outperformed two classification tree algorithms, based on map accuracy and algorithm robustness. Variation in spatial data error (positional and thematic) was explored in relation to environmental variables using geostatistical interpolation

  15. Land cover and water yield: inference problems when comparing catchments with mixed land cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. J. M. van Dijk


    Full Text Available Controlled experiments provide strong evidence that changing land cover (e.g. deforestation or afforestation can affect mean catchment streamflow (Q. By contrast, a similarly strong influence has not been found in studies that interpret Q from multiple catchments with mixed land cover. One possible reason is that there are methodological issues with the way in which the Budyko framework was used in the latter type studies. We examined this using Q data observed in 278 Australian catchments and by making inferences from synthetic Q data simulated by a hydrological process model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model. The previous contrasting findings could be reproduced. In the synthetic experiment, the land cover influence was still present but not accurately detected with the Budyko- framework. Likely sources of interpretation bias demonstrated include: (i noise in land cover, precipitation and Q data; (ii additional catchment climate characteristics more important than land cover; and (iii covariance between Q and catchment attributes. These methodological issues caution against the use of a Budyko framework to quantify a land cover influence in Q data from mixed land-cover catchments. Importantly, however, our findings do not rule out that there may also be physical processes that modify the influence of land cover in mixed land-cover catchments. Process model simulations suggested that lateral water redistribution between vegetation types and recirculation of intercepted rainfall may be important.

  16. Influence of sea ice cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (United States)

    Dinniman, Michael S.; Klinck, John M.; Smith, Walker O.


    Satellite imagery shows that there was substantial variability in the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea during 2001-2003. Much of this variability is thought to be due to several large icebergs that moved through the area during that period. The effects of these changes in sea ice on circulation and water mass distributions are investigated with a numerical general circulation model. It would be difficult to simulate the highly variable sea ice from 2001 to 2003 with a dynamic sea ice model since much of the variability was due to the floating icebergs. Here, sea ice concentration is specified from satellite observations. To examine the effects of changes in sea ice due to iceberg C-19, simulations were performed using either climatological ice concentrations or the observed ice for that period. The heat balance around the Ross Sea Polynya (RSP) shows that the dominant term in the surface heat budget is the net exchange with the atmosphere, but advection of oceanic warm water is also important. The area average annual basal melt rate beneath the Ross Ice Shelf is reduced by 12% in the observed sea ice simulation. The observed sea ice simulation also creates more High-Salinity Shelf Water. Another simulation was performed with observed sea ice and a fixed iceberg representing B-15A. There is reduced advection of warm surface water during summer from the RSP into McMurdo Sound due to B-15A, but a much stronger reduction is due to the late opening of the RSP in early 2003 because of C-19.

  17. Landfill covers for dry environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwyer, S.F.


    A large-scale landfill cover field test is currently underway at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It is intended to compare and document the performance of alternative landfill cover technologies of various costs and complexities for interim stabilization and/or final closure of landfills in arid and semi-arid environments. Test plots of traditional designs recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency for both RCRA Subtitle open-quote C close-quote and open-quote D close-quote regulated facilities have been constructed side-by-side with the alternative covers and will serve as baselines for comparison to these alternative covers. The alternative covers were designed specifically for dry environments. The covers will be tested under both ambient and stressed conditions. All covers have been instrumented to measure water balance variables and soil temperature. An on-site weather station records all pertinent climatological data. A key to acceptance of an alternative environmental technology is seeking regulatory acceptance and eventual permitting. The lack of acceptance by regulatory agencies is a significant barrier to development and implementation of innovative cover technologies. Much of the effort on this demonstration has been toward gaining regulatory and public acceptance

  18. Automatic design of magazine covers (United States)

    Jahanian, Ali; Liu, Jerry; Tretter, Daniel R.; Lin, Qian; Damera-Venkata, Niranjan; O'Brien-Strain, Eamonn; Lee, Seungyon; Fan, Jian; Allebach, Jan P.


    In this paper, we propose a system for automatic design of magazine covers that quantifies a number of concepts from art and aesthetics. Our solution to automatic design of this type of media has been shaped by input from professional designers, magazine art directors and editorial boards, and journalists. Consequently, a number of principles in design and rules in designing magazine covers are delineated. Several techniques are derived and employed in order to quantify and implement these principles and rules in the format of a software framework. At this stage, our framework divides the task of design into three main modules: layout of magazine cover elements, choice of color for masthead and cover lines, and typography of cover lines. Feedback from professional designers on our designs suggests that our results are congruent with their intuition.

  19. Validation, automatic generation and use of broad phonetic transcriptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bael, Cristophe Patrick Jan Van


    Broad phonetic transcriptions represent the pronunciation of words as strings of characters from specifically designed symbol sets. In everyday life, broad phonetic transcriptions are often used as aids to pronounce (foreign) words. In addition, broad phonetic transcriptions are often used for

  20. Landscape change in the Holocene transition Development of a predictive model of vegetation cover in the Asón Valley (Cantabria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García Moreno, Alejandro


    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of prehistoric vegetation, and its evolution during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, is essential for understanding the changes in the settlement patterns that took place at the end of the Upper Palaeolithic. To calculate this distribution, we have use a predictive model based on the weighted values method, according to the forest vegetation’s ecological requirements, analizing its evolution in the Asón river valley (Cantabria and its relationship with Palaeolithic sites.

    El conocimiento de la distribución espacial de la vegetación prehistórica, y su evolución a lo largo de la transición al Holoceno, es fundamental para entender los cambios en los patrones de explotación del territorio y de asentamiento que se producen en los grupos de cazadores-recolectores del final del Paleolítico Superior. Para calcular dicha distribución, se emplea un modelo predictivo basado en el método de weighted values (valores ponderados, a partir de los requerimientos ecológicos de la vegetación arbórea, analizando su evolución en el Valle del Asón (Cantabria y su relación con los yacimientos paleolíticos que allí existen.

  1. Manta A New BroadBand OBS (United States)

    Hello, Y.; Yegikyan, M.; Charvis, P.; Philippe, O.


    Manta is a new BroadBand OBS developed at Geoazur and commercialized by Osean. The design is inspired by 3-years autonomy MUG-OBS a Multiparameter Ocean Bottom System which carry a lot of sort of sensor types. As Mug-OBS, Manta-OBS rated 6000m is designed to resist a trawling. All the components are non corrosive such polyethylene, titanium and buoyancy is ensured by syntactic foam. Equipped in standard version with a Trillium compact OBS Manta has an autonomy of 18 months, but can accept on its 4 input channels any kind of signal as low as from an hydrophone or larger from other type of a seismometer or accelerometer. Tri-axial geophones unit (2 Hz or 4.5 Hz ) can replace the seismometer and will expend the lifespan for the instrument. The seismometer is encapsulated in a central well established by four panels of the main structure to protect it from sea current convection and is decoupled from main chassis. An health bulletin is recoverable by acoustic any time to facilitate the installation and during a visit when instrument is deployed. Main parameters for acquisition can be changed by acoustics command from surface at any time. Once at the bottom, release for the main sensor installation is programmed on a timer but controlled by the tilt of the OBS. If the tilt is too important based on programmed limits, sensor will not released automatically, but this can be forced by acoustic command after returning the tilt informations to the boat operator. Manta is equipped with flash light and AIS system for easy location at recovery, and can also send it's position by Iridium satellite in case of an unexpected ascent such caused by a possible trawling if deployed in shallow water. Clock drift calculation is automatically made against GPS time signal once the OBS return at the surface. The recovery of the OBS is initiated by an acoustic command. These new features made Manta a very versatile instrument for monitoring earthquakes.

  2. Modelagem da proteção do solo por plantas de cobertura no sul de Minas Gerais = Modeling of soil protection by cover crops in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Antonio França de Freitas


    Full Text Available A cobertura do solo é o fator de maior importância relativa no controle da erosão hídrica. Assim, objetivou-se no presente estudo elaborar a modelagem da cobertura vegetal de vinte e quatro plantas de cobertura, em diversos sistemas de plantio e históricos de uso, com potencial para cultivo no Sul de Minas Gerais. Para avaliação da cobertura vegetal foram realizadas avaliações no campo utilizando uma régua de classificação da cobertura vegetal, sendo o delineamento experimental inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições, utilizado neste experimento. As plantas cultivadas sobre a palhada de feijãoirrigado apresentaram alto índice de cobertura do solo, o que pode estar relacionado à maior disponibilidade de nutrientes deixado por esta cultura na palhada e a maior reserva de água no solo, promovido pela irrigação do feijão. O milheto cultivado em nível e sobre a palhada de milheto e feijão-de-porco apresentou o menor índice de cobertura entre as plantas testadas. Na região sul de Minas Gerais os padrões de chuvas ocorrem em maior quantidade nos períodos de outubro a março, com elevação em dezembro e janeiro. Neste período o solo deve estar protegido do impacto da gota de chuva, pois o risco de erosão hídrica é maior. Assim, a utilização das plantas de cobertura é de grande importância, pois estas protegem o solo do impacto direto dasgotas de chuvas e diminuem os picos de temperatura do solo, sendo que estas devem ser cultivadas, preferencialmente, sobre a palhada de feijão.The ground cover is the most important factor relative to control erosion. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop a model plant cover for 24 cover crops used in several cropping systems and historical use, with potential for cultivation in southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. To evaluate the vegetation cover field assessments using the strip land cover classification. A completely randomized design with three replications was

  3. Cover song identification by sequence alignment algorithms (United States)

    Wang, Chih-Li; Zhong, Qian; Wang, Szu-Ying; Roychowdhury, Vwani


    Content-based music analysis has drawn much attention due to the rapidly growing digital music market. This paper describes a method that can be used to effectively identify cover songs. A cover song is a song that preserves only the crucial melody of its reference song but different in some other acoustic properties. Hence, the beat/chroma-synchronous chromagram, which is insensitive to the variation of the timber or rhythm of songs but sensitive to the melody, is chosen. The key transposition is achieved by cyclically shifting the chromatic domain of the chromagram. By using the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain the time sequences of songs, the system is made even more robust. Similar structure or length between the cover songs and its reference are not necessary by the Smith-Waterman Alignment Algorithm.

  4. Multilevel models applications using SAS

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Jichuan; Fisher, James F


    This book covers a broad range of topics about multilevel modeling. The goal is to help readers to understand the basic concepts, theoretical frameworks, and application methods of multilevel modeling. It is at a level also accessible to non-mathematicians, focusing on the methods and applications of various multilevel models and using the widely used statistical software SAS®. Examples are drawn from analysis of real-world research data.

  5. The art of the cover. (United States)

    Porter, Nora


    Often, it's difficult to match up our cover artwork with the subjects of our lead articles and special reports. Of necessity, we sometimes turn to pure abstraction. How else to illustrate technical policy articles on subjects such as changing research protocols or informed consent, or abstract ideas like congruence, duality, imbalance, causality? At such times, we have to be pretty creative, and my search for cover art can be long and challenging. In the end, we hope that the reader will make the connection between cover and content. However, at other times, the subject of a lead article or special report overflows with artistic possibilities. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

  6. On numerically pluricanonical cyclic coverings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulikov, V S; Kharlamov, V M


    We investigate some properties of cyclic coverings f:Y→X (where X is a complex surface of general type) branched along smooth curves B⊂X that are numerically equivalent to a multiple of the canonical class of X. Our main results concern coverings of surfaces of general type with p g =0 and Miyaoka-Yau surfaces. In particular, such coverings provide new examples of multi-component moduli spaces of surfaces with given Chern numbers and new examples of surfaces that are not deformation equivalent to their complex conjugates

  7. Cover gases in nuclear reactors with special reference to argon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, C.J.; Shah, G.C.; Prabhu, L.H.; Vartak, D.G.


    The report describes the specifications of an ideal cover gas for the smooth operation of a nuclear reactor. The advantages of using helium as cover gas, the sources of impurities in helium cover gas and the methods of purification of helium are given in detail. Various problems associated with the use of argon as cover gas and methods to purify and decontaminate argon cover gas are discussed on the basis of experimental data collected. A laboratory model of the system which can be used to evaluate the performance of the gas purification adsorbents is also described. (author)

  8. An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M. Sleeter


    Full Text Available Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization, often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent

  9. An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang


    Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling

  10. Land cover mapping of Greater Mesoamerica using MODIS data (United States)

    Giri, Chandra; Jenkins, Clinton N.


    A new land cover database of Greater Mesoamerica has been prepared using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS, 500 m resolution) satellite data. Daily surface reflectance MODIS data and a suite of ancillary data were used in preparing the database by employing a decision tree classification approach. The new land cover data are an improvement over traditional advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) based land cover data in terms of both spatial and thematic details. The dominant land cover type in Greater Mesoamerica is forest (39%), followed by shrubland (30%) and cropland (22%). Country analysis shows forest as the dominant land cover type in Belize (62%), Cost Rica (52%), Guatemala (53%), Honduras (56%), Nicaragua (53%), and Panama (48%), cropland as the dominant land cover type in El Salvador (60.5%), and shrubland as the dominant land cover type in Mexico (37%). A three-step approach was used to assess the quality of the classified land cover data: (i) qualitative assessment provided good insight in identifying and correcting gross errors; (ii) correlation analysis of MODIS- and Landsat-derived land cover data revealed strong positive association for forest (r2 = 0.88), shrubland (r2 = 0.75), and cropland (r2 = 0.97) but weak positive association for grassland (r2 = 0.26); and (iii) an error matrix generated using unseen training data provided an overall accuracy of 77.3% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.73608. Overall, MODIS 500 m data and the methodology used were found to be quite useful for broad-scale land cover mapping of Greater Mesoamerica.

  11. Antiproton-neutron annihilations at rest: Search for broad states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalogeropoulos, T.E.


    The searches so far for meson states produced in p-bar annihilations at rest into π+X have been sensitive to narrow X states. The combinatorial background and the narrow phase space width in missing mass spectra are the main problems. Most of the theoretical models predict broad states. We have measured in a high statistis experiment p-bar(at rest)d→π/sup +- /+Anything inclusive spectra. Using a novel analysis technique the π + π - difference spectra, it is shown that the p-barn annihilation is dominated by two-body cascades. Two new states of opposite G-parity of (mass, width) = (1480, 100) MeV/c 2 are dominant. The G = +1 state has a large decay branching ratio into rho 0 rho 0 . Other features are presented

  12. Land-cover change detection (United States)

    Chen, Xuexia; Giri, Chandra; Vogelmann, James


    Land cover is the biophysical material on the surface of the earth. Land-cover types include grass, shrubs, trees, barren, water, and man-made features. Land cover changes continuously.  The rate of change can be either dramatic and abrupt, such as the changes caused by logging, hurricanes and fire, or subtle and gradual, such as regeneration of forests and damage caused by insects (Verbesselt et al., 2001).  Previous studies have shown that land cover has changed dramatically during the past sevearal centuries and that these changes have severely affected our ecosystems (Foody, 2010; Lambin et al., 2001). Lambin and Strahlers (1994b) summarized five types of cause for land-cover changes: (1) long-term natural changes in climate conditions, (2) geomorphological and ecological processes, (3) human-induced alterations of vegetation cover and landscapes, (4) interannual climate variability, and (5) human-induced greenhouse effect.  Tools and techniques are needed to detect, describe, and predict these changes to facilitate sustainable management of natural resources.

  13. The Maudsley Outpatient Study of Treatments for Anorexia Nervosa and Related Conditions (MOSAIC): Comparison of the Maudsley Model of Anorexia Nervosa Treatment for Adults (MANTRA) with specialist supportive clinical management (SSCM) in outpatients with broadly defined anorexia nervosa: A randomized controlled trial. (United States)

    Schmidt, Ulrike; Magill, Nicholas; Renwick, Bethany; Keyes, Alexandra; Kenyon, Martha; Dejong, Hannah; Lose, Anna; Broadbent, Hannah; Loomes, Rachel; Yasin, Huma; Watson, Charlotte; Ghelani, Shreena; Bonin, Eva-Maria; Serpell, Lucy; Richards, Lorna; Johnson-Sabine, Eric; Boughton, Nicky; Whitehead, Linette; Beecham, Jennifer; Treasure, Janet; Landau, Sabine


    Anorexia nervosa (AN) in adults has poor outcomes, and treatment evidence is limited. This study evaluated the efficacy and acceptability of a novel, targeted psychological therapy for AN (Maudsley Model of Anorexia Nervosa Treatment for Adults; MANTRA) compared with Specialist Supportive Clinical Management (SSCM). One hundred forty-two outpatients with broadly defined AN (body mass index [BMI] ≤ 18.5 kg/m²) were randomly allocated to receive 20 to 30 weekly sessions (depending on clinical severity) plus add-ons (4 follow-up sessions, optional sessions with dietician and with carers) of MANTRA (n = 72) or SSCM (n = 70). Assessments were administered blind to treatment condition at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months after randomization. The primary outcome was BMI at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included eating disorders symptomatology, other psychopathology, neuro-cognitive and social cognition, and acceptability. Additional service utilization was also assessed. Outcomes were analyzed using linear mixed models. Both treatments resulted in significant improvements in BMI and reductions in eating disorders symptomatology, distress levels, and clinical impairment over time, with no statistically significant difference between groups at either 6 or 12 months. Improvements in neuro-cognitive and social-cognitive measures over time were less consistent. One SSCM patient died. Compared with SSCM, MANTRA patients rated their treatment as significantly more acceptable and credible at 12 months. There was no significant difference between groups in additional service consumption. Both treatments appear to have value as first-line outpatient interventions for patients with broadly defined AN. Longer term outcomes remain to be evaluated. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Physical processes and sedimentation on a broad, shallow bank (United States)

    Murray, S. P.; Hsu, S. A.; Roberts, H. H.; Owens, E. H.; Crout, R. L.


    An integrated study of the meteorology, physical oceanography, sedimentationand coastal morphology on the broad, shallow Miskito Bank off the eastern coast of Nicaragua has uncovered systematic interrelationships between driving forces. Bank geometry and sedimentologic environments on the Bank. Extremely high rainfall results from an interaction between meteorological processes over the Bank and topographic effects along the coast. Both acoustic and radio sounding of the lower atmosphere have documented the feedback between convective plumes, inversion layers and the incessant rainfall, which brings three times more freshwater and 15 times more sediment down to a unit length of coast than on the U.S. Atlantic shore. The resultant brackish, turbid coastal water moves as a highly organized band of water parallel to the coast. Seaward of this coastal boundary layer, offshore water from the Caribbean Current rides up on the Bank and provides an environment ideal for carbonate production. A zone of fine-grained terrigenous sediment underlying the coastal boundary current merges abruptly into a smooth carbonate plain covering most of the surface of the Bank. These central Bank carbonates are composed primarily of the disintegration products of prolific calcareous green algae. A trend of high relief, luxuriant coral reef growth is aligned along the steep dropoff at the Bank edge, a zone of observed upwelling of cooler and saltier basin water. A threefold southerly increase in wave energy at the shoreline due to the decreasing width of the shallow shelf results in wave-dominated coastal morphologies in the south compared to fluvial domination in the north and a systematic change from straight, linear bars and beaches in the north to rhythmic topography in the south.

  15. Forest value and optimal rotations in continuous cover forestry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Jensen, Frank; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark


    The Faustmann forest rotation model is a celebrated contribution in economics. The model provides a forest value expression and allows a solution to the optimal rotation problem valid for perpetual rotations of even-aged forest stands. However, continuous forest cover forest management systems......, but rigorous mathematical model of the continuous cover forest, which strictly focuses on the area use dynamics that such an uneven-aged forest must have in equilibrium. This implies explicitly accounting for area reallocation and for weighting the productivity of each age class by the area occupied. We...... present results for unrestricted as well as area-restricted versions of the models. We find that land values are unambiguously higher in the continuous cover forest models compared with the even-aged models. Under area restrictions, the optimal rotation age in a continuous cover forest model...

  16. Deriving Snow Cover Metrics for Alaska from MODIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuck Lindsay


    Full Text Available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS daily snow cover products provide an opportunity for determining snow onset and melt dates across broad geographic regions; however, cloud cover and polar darkness are limiting factors at higher latitudes. This study presents snow onset and melt dates for Alaska, portions of western Canada and the Russian Far East derived from Terra MODIS snow cover daily 500 m grid data (MOD10A1 and evaluates our method for filling data gaps caused by clouds or polar darkness. Pixels classified as cloud or no data were reclassified by: spatial filtering using neighboring pixel values; temporal filtering using pixel values for days before/after cloud cover; and snow-cycle filtering based on a time series assessment of a pixel’s position within snow accumulation, cover or melt periods. During the 2012 snow year, these gap-filling methods reduced cloud pixels from 27.7% to 3.1%. A total of 12 metrics (e.g., date of first and last snow, date of persistent snow cover and periods of intermittence for each pixel were calculated by snow year. A comparison of MODIS-derived snow onset and melt dates with in situ observations from 244 weather stations generally showed an early bias in MODIS-derived dates and an effect of increasing cloudiness exacerbating bias. Our results show that mean regional duration of seasonal snow cover is 179–311 days/year and that snow cover is often intermittent, with 41% of the area experiencing ≥2 snow-covered periods during a snow season. Other regional-scale patterns in the timing of snow onset and melt are evident in the yearly 500 m gridded products publically available at

  17. Domination, Eternal Domination, and Clique Covering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klostermeyer William F.


    Full Text Available Eternal and m-eternal domination are concerned with using mobile guards to protect a graph against infinite sequences of attacks at vertices. Eternal domination allows one guard to move per attack, whereas more than one guard may move per attack in the m-eternal domination model. Inequality chains consisting of the domination, eternal domination, m-eternal domination, independence, and clique covering numbers of graph are explored in this paper.

  18. Mekong Land Cover Dasboard: Regional Land Cover Mointoring Systems (United States)

    Saah, D. S.; Towashiraporn, P.; Aekakkararungroj, A.; Phongsapan, K.; Triepke, J.; Maus, P.; Tenneson, K.; Cutter, P. G.; Ganz, D.; Anderson, E.


    SERVIR-Mekong, a USAID-NASA partnership, helps decision makers in the Lower Mekong Region utilize GIS and Remote Sensing information to inform climate related activities. In 2015, SERVIR-Mekong conducted a geospatial needs assessment for the Lower Mekong countries which included individual country consultations. The team found that many countries were dependent on land cover and land use maps for land resource planning, quantifying ecosystem services, including resilience to climate change, biodiversity conservation, and other critical social issues. Many of the Lower Mekong countries have developed national scale land cover maps derived in part from remote sensing products and geospatial technologies. However, updates are infrequent and classification systems do not always meet the needs of key user groups. In addition, data products stop at political boundaries and are often not accessible making the data unusable across country boundaries and with resource management partners. Many of these countries rely on global land cover products to fill the gaps of their national efforts, compromising consistency between data and policies. These gaps in national efforts can be filled by a flexible regional land cover monitoring system that is co-developed by regional partners with the specific intention of meeting national transboundary needs, for example including consistent forest definitions in transboundary watersheds. Based on these facts, key regional stakeholders identified a need for a land cover monitoring system that will produce frequent, high quality land cover maps using a consistent regional classification scheme that is compatible with national country needs. SERVIR-Mekong is currently developing a solution that leverages recent developments in remote sensing science and technology, such as Google Earth Engine (GEE), and working together with production partners to develop a system that will use a common set of input data sources to generate high

  19. The National Land Cover Database (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Fry, Joyce A.; Barnes, Christopher A.


    The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) serves as the definitive Landsat-based, 30-meter resolution, land cover database for the Nation. NLCD provides spatial reference and descriptive data for characteristics of the land surface such as thematic class (for example, urban, agriculture, and forest), percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy cover. NLCD supports a wide variety of Federal, State, local, and nongovernmental applications that seek to assess ecosystem status and health, understand the spatial patterns of biodiversity, predict effects of climate change, and develop land management policy. NLCD products are created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium, a partnership of Federal agencies led by the U.S. Geological Survey. All NLCD data products are available for download at no charge to the public from the MRLC Web site:

  20. 77 FR 665 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Listing Two Distinct Population Segments of Broad... (United States)


    ... threat to the broad-snouted caiman, what regional climate change models are available, and whether they are reliable and credible to use as a step-down model for assessing the effects of climate change on... waterways, including rivers near waterfalls such as Iguaz[uacute], and freshwater creeks with rocky bottoms...

  1. A globally complete map of supraglacial debris cover and a new toolkit for debris cover research (United States)

    Herreid, Sam; Pellicciotti, Francesca


    A growing canon of literature is focused on resolving the processes and implications of debris cover on glaciers. However, this work is often confined to a handful of glaciers that were likely selected based on criteria optimizing their suitability to test a specific hypothesis or logistical ease. The role of debris cover in a glacier system is likely to not go overlooked in forthcoming research, yet the magnitude of this role at a global scale has not yet been fully described. Here, we present a map of debris cover for all glacierized regions on Earth including the Greenland Ice Sheet using 30 m Landsat data. This dataset will begin to open a wider context to the high quality, localized findings from the debris-covered glacier research community and help inform large-scale modeling efforts. A global map of debris cover also facilitates analysis attempting to isolate first order geomorphological and climate controls of supraglacial debris production. Furthering the objective of expanding the inclusion of debris cover in forthcoming research, we also present an under development suite of open-source, Python based tools. Requiring minimal and often freely available input data, we have automated the mapping of: i) debris cover, ii) ice cliffs, iii) debris cover evolution over the Landsat era and iv) glacier flow instabilities from altered debris structures. At the present time, debris extent is the only globally complete quantity but with the expanding repository of high quality global datasets and further tool development minimizing manual tasks and computational cost, we foresee all of these tools being applied globally in the near future.

  2. The Regional Land Cover Monitoring System: Building regional capacity through innovative land cover mapping approaches (United States)

    Saah, D.; Tenneson, K.; Hanh, Q. N.; Aekakkararungroj, A.; Aung, K. S.; Goldstein, J.; Cutter, P. G.; Maus, P.; Markert, K. N.; Anderson, E.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Ate, P.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Vadrevu, K.; Potapov, P.; Phongsapan, K.; Chishtie, F.; Clinton, N.; Ganz, D.


    Earth observation and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, products, and services are vital to support the environmental decision making by governmental institutions, non-governmental agencies, and the general public. At the heart of environmental decision making is the monitoring land cover and land use change (LCLUC) for land resource planning and for ecosystem services, including biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate change. A major challenge for monitoring LCLUC in developing regions, such as Southeast Asia, is inconsistent data products at inconsistent intervals that have different typologies across the region and are typically made in without stakeholder engagement or input. Here we present the Regional Land Cover Monitoring System (RLCMS), a novel land cover mapping effort for Southeast Asia, implemented by SERVIR-Mekong, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations to improve environmental decision making in developing countries. The RLCMS focuses on mapping biophysical variables (e.g. canopy cover, tree height, or percent surface water) at an annual interval and in turn using those biophysical variables to develop land cover maps based on stakeholder definitions of land cover classes. This allows for flexible and consistent land cover classifications that can meet the needs of different institutions across the region. Another component of the RLCMS production is the stake-holder engagement through co-development. Institutions that directly benefit from this system have helped drive the development for regional needs leading to services for their specific uses. Examples of services for regional stakeholders include using the RLCMS to develop maps using the IPCC classification scheme for GHG emission reporting and developing custom annual maps as an input to hydrologic modeling/flood forecasting systems. In addition to the implementation of this system and the service stemming from the RLCMS in Southeast Asia, it is

  3. Emerging Infectious Diseases Cover Art

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts


    Byron Breedlove, managing editor of the EID Journal, discusses his approach to cover art.  Created: 7/26/2017 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 7/26/2017.

  4. Cover Crops in Hillside Agriculture

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Our study focuses on the wet tropical hillsides of northern Honduras (Figure 1). ..... The eastern extreme of the region (Jutiapa) is a dry spot, with less rainfall (2 000 mm a-1) as a result ...... Paper presented at the International Workshop on Green Manure–Cover Crops for Smallholders in ..... Lamaster, J.P.; Jones, I.R. 1923.

  5. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yntze van der Hoek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively. In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that

  6. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses. (United States)

    van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L


    Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that

  7. Engineered soil covers for management of salt impacted sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, D.A.; Tratch, D.J.


    The use of engineered soil cover systems to mitigate environmental impacts from tailings and waste rock piles is becoming an accepted practice. This paper presented design concepts for soil covers related to reclamation practices in the mining industry as an effective risk management practice at salt impacted sites. Research and field programs have demonstrated that a layered engineered soil cover can reduce or eliminate infiltration. Key components of the system included re-establishing surface vegetation to balance precipitation fluxes with evapotranspiration potential, and design of a capillary break below the rooting zone to minimize deeper seated infiltration. It was anticipated that the incorporation of a vegetation cover and a capillary break would minimize infiltration into the waste rock or tailing pile and reduce the generation of acid rock drainage (ARD). Design of a layered soil cover requires the incorporation of meteorological data, moisture retention characteristics of the impacted soils, and proposed engineered cover materials. Performance of the soil cover was predicted using a finite element model combined with meteorological data from the site area, unsaturated soil properties of the parent sub-surface soils and potential covered materials. The soil cover design consisted of re-vegetation and a loose clay cover overlying a compacted till layer. The design was conducted for an off site release of salt impacted pasture land adjacent to a former highway maintenance yard. The model predicted minimal infiltration during high precipitation events and no infiltration during low precipitation events. Results indicated that the proposed soil cover would enable re-establishment of a productive agricultural ground cover, as well as minimizing the potential for additional salt migration. It was concluded that further research and development is needed to ensure that the cover system is an acceptable method for long-term risk management. 17 refs., 5 figs

  8. Effect of regulatory architecture on broad versus narrow sense heritability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Wang

    Full Text Available Additive genetic variance (VA and total genetic variance (VG are core concepts in biomedical, evolutionary and production-biology genetics. What determines the large variation in reported VA /VG ratios from line-cross experiments is not well understood. Here we report how the VA /VG ratio, and thus the ratio between narrow and broad sense heritability (h(2 /H(2 , varies as a function of the regulatory architecture underlying genotype-to-phenotype (GP maps. We studied five dynamic models (of the cAMP pathway, the glycolysis, the circadian rhythms, the cell cycle, and heart cell dynamics. We assumed genetic variation to be reflected in model parameters and extracted phenotypes summarizing the system dynamics. Even when imposing purely linear genotype to parameter maps and no environmental variation, we observed quite low VA /VG ratios. In particular, systems with positive feedback and cyclic dynamics gave more non-monotone genotype-phenotype maps and much lower VA /VG ratios than those without. The results show that some regulatory architectures consistently maintain a transparent genotype-to-phenotype relationship, whereas other architectures generate more