WorldWideScience

Sample records for models chm analyses

  1. In silico data analyses of the hotspot mutations of CHM gene in choroideremia disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saber Imani

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This data article provides compelling computational analysis of the hotspot CHM gene mutations that contribute to the progressive causativeness and susceptibility of Choroideremia in patients. We performed structural and molecular dynamics (MD simulation analysis on abnormal states of the CHM protein caused by deleterious and disease-causing hotspot mutant forms of CHM: S89C, E177K, and V529H. Within 40 ns, MD simulation time composed of the E177K mutant shows conformational alteration especially in several parts of the variant. Mathematically, we applied eigenvector analysis to determine the modes of flexibility and atomic positional fluctuations that contribute significantly to the overall motion of the CHM protein in terms of structural alteration, free energy landscapes (FEL, entropy, enthalpy, and principal component analysis (PCA.The data described here are related to the article entitled “Molecular Genetics Characterization and Homology Modeling of the CHM Gene Mutation: A study on Its Association with Choroideremia” (Imani et al., 2018 [1]. Keywords: In silico, Choroideremia, Rab escort protein 1, Molecular dynamic simulation

  2. MERRA CHM 2D Constants V5.2.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MAC0FXCHM or const_2d_chm_Fx data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System 2-Dimensional Constants at native Fv resolution. MERRA, or the Modern Era...

  3. Graphical models for genetic analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt; Sheehan, Nuala A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper introduces graphical models as a natural environment in which to formulate and solve problems in genetics and related areas. Particular emphasis is given to the relationships among various local computation algorithms which have been developed within the hitherto mostly separate areas...... of graphical models and genetics. The potential of graphical models is explored and illustrated through a number of example applications where the genetic element is substantial or dominating....

  4. An extensible analysable system model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2008-01-01

    , this does not hold for real physical systems. Approaches such as threat modelling try to target the formalisation of the real-world domain, but still are far from the rigid techniques available in security research. Many currently available approaches to assurance of critical infrastructure security...

  5. tavg3_3d_chm_Fe: MERRA Chem 3D IAU, Precip Mass Flux, Time average 3-hourly 1.25 x 1 degree V5.2.0 (MAT3FECHM) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MAT3FECHM or tavg3_3d_chm_Fe data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System Chemistry 3-Dimensional chemistry on layers edges that is time averaged, 3D model...

  6. tavg3_3d_chm_Fv: MERRA Chem 3D IAU States Cloud Precip, Time average 3-hourly 1.25 x 1.25 degree V5.2.0 (MAT3FVCHM) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MAT3FVCHM or tavg3_3d_chm_Fv data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System Chemistry 3-Dimensional chemistry on layers file that is time averaged, 3D model...

  7. Modelling and analysing oriented fibrous structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantala, M; Lassas, M; Siltanen, S; Sampo, J; Takalo, J; Timonen, J

    2014-01-01

    A mathematical model for fibrous structures using a direction dependent scaling law is presented. The orientation of fibrous nets (e.g. paper) is analysed with a method based on the curvelet transform. The curvelet-based orientation analysis has been tested successfully on real data from paper samples: the major directions of fibrefibre orientation can apparently be recovered. Similar results are achieved in tests on data simulated by the new model, allowing a comparison with ground truth

  8. Externalizing Behaviour for Analysing System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, René Rydhof

    2013-01-01

    System models have recently been introduced to model organisations and evaluate their vulnerability to threats and especially insider threats. Especially for the latter these models are very suitable, since insiders can be assumed to have more knowledge about the attacked organisation than outside...... attackers. Therefore, many attacks are considerably easier to be performed for insiders than for outsiders. However, current models do not support explicit specification of different behaviours. Instead, behaviour is deeply embedded in the analyses supported by the models, meaning that it is a complex......, if not impossible task to change behaviours. Especially when considering social engineering or the human factor in general, the ability to use different kinds of behaviours is essential. In this work we present an approach to make the behaviour a separate component in system models, and explore how to integrate...

  9. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  10. YALINA Booster subcritical assembly modeling and analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talamo, A.; Gohar, Y.; Aliberti, G.; Cao, Y.; Zhong, Z.; Kiyavitskaya, H.; Bournos, V.; Fokov, Y.; Routkovskaya, C.; Sadovich, S.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Accurate simulation models of the YALINA Booster assembly of the Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research (JIPNR)-Sosny, Belarus have been developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) of the USA. YALINA-Booster has coupled zones operating with fast and thermal neutron spectra, which requires a special attention in the modelling process. Three different uranium enrichments of 90%, 36% or 21% were used in the fast zone and 10% uranium enrichment was used in the thermal zone. Two of the most advanced Monte Carlo computer programs have been utilized for the ANL analyses: MCNP of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and MONK of the British Nuclear Fuel Limited and SERCO Assurance. The developed geometrical models for both computer programs modelled all the details of the YALINA Booster facility as described in the technical specifications defined in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report without any geometrical approximation or material homogenization. Materials impurities and the measured material densities have been used in the models. The obtained results for the neutron multiplication factors calculated in criticality mode (keff) and in source mode (ksrc) with an external neutron source from the two Monte Carlo programs are very similar. Different external neutron sources have been investigated including californium, deuterium-deuterium (D-D), and deuterium-tritium (D-T) neutron sources. The spatial neutron flux profiles and the neutron spectra in the experimental channels were calculated. In addition, the kinetic parameters were defined including the effective delayed neutron fraction, the prompt neutron lifetime, and the neutron generation time. A new calculation methodology has been developed at ANL to simulate the pulsed neutron source experiments. In this methodology, the MCNP code is used to simulate the detector response from a single pulse of the external neutron source and a C code is used to superimpose the pulse until the

  11. tavg3_3d_chm_Ne: MERRA Chem 3D IAU C-Grid Edge Mass Flux, Time Average 3-Hourly 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MAT3NECHM) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MAT3NECHM or tavg3_3d_chm_Ne data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System Chemistry 3-Dimensional chemistry on layer Edges that is time averaged, 3D model...

  12. Analysing Feature Model Changes using FMDiff

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dintzner, N.J.R.; Van Deursen, A.; Pinzger, M.

    2015-01-01

    Evolving a large scale, highly variable sys- tems is a challenging task. For such a system, evolution operations often require to update consistently both their implementation and its feature model. In this con- text, the evolution of the feature model closely follows the evolution of the system.

  13. Modelling and Analyses of Embedded Systems Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brekling, Aske Wiid

    We present the MoVES languages: a language with which embedded systems can be specified at a stage in the development process where an application is identified and should be mapped to an execution platform (potentially multi- core). We give a formal model for MoVES that captures and gives......-based verification is a promising approach for assisting developers of embedded systems. We provide examples of system verifications that, in size and complexity, point in the direction of industrially-interesting systems....... semantics to the elements of specifications in the MoVES language. We show that even for seem- ingly simple systems, the complexity of verifying real-time constraints can be overwhelming - but we give an upper limit to the size of the search-space that needs examining. Furthermore, the formal model exposes...

  14. Applications of Historical Analyses in Combat Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    causes of those results [2]. Models can be classified into three descriptive types [8], according to the degree of abstraction required:  iconic ...22 ( A5 ) Hence the first bracket of Equation A3 is zero. Therefore:         022 22 22 122 22 22 2      o o o o xx xxy yy yyx...A6) Equation A5 can also be used to replace the term in Equation A6, leaving: 22 oxx     222 2 22 1 2222 2 oo xxa byyyx

  15. Radiobiological analyse based on cell cluster models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Hui; Jing Jia; Meng Damin; Xu Yuanying; Xu Liangfeng

    2010-01-01

    The influence of cell cluster dimension on EUD and TCP for targeted radionuclide therapy was studied using the radiobiological method. The radiobiological features of tumor with activity-lack in core were evaluated and analyzed by associating EUD, TCP and SF.The results show that EUD will increase with the increase of tumor dimension under the activity homogeneous distribution. If the extra-cellular activity was taken into consideration, the EUD will increase 47%. Under the activity-lack in tumor center and the requirement of TCP=0.90, the α cross-fire influence of 211 At could make up the maximum(48 μm)3 activity-lack for Nucleus source, but(72 μm)3 for Cytoplasm, Cell Surface, Cell and Voxel sources. In clinic,the physician could prefer the suggested dose of Cell Surface source in case of the future of local tumor control for under-dose. Generally TCP could well exhibit the effect difference between under-dose and due-dose, but not between due-dose and over-dose, which makes TCP more suitable for the therapy plan choice. EUD could well exhibit the difference between different models and activity distributions,which makes it more suitable for the research work. When the user uses EUD to study the influence of activity inhomogeneous distribution, one should keep the consistency of the configuration and volume of the former and the latter models. (authors)

  16. VIPRE modeling of VVER-1000 reactor core for DNB analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, Y.; Nguyen, Q. [Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Cizek, J. [Nuclear Research Institute, Prague, (Czech Republic)

    1995-09-01

    Based on the one-pass modeling approach, the hot channels and the VVER-1000 reactor core can be modeled in 30 channels for DNB analyses using the VIPRE-01/MOD02 (VIPRE) code (VIPRE is owned by Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California). The VIPRE one-pass model does not compromise any accuracy in the hot channel local fluid conditions. Extensive qualifications include sensitivity studies of radial noding and crossflow parameters and comparisons with the results from THINC and CALOPEA subchannel codes. The qualifications confirm that the VIPRE code with the Westinghouse modeling method provides good computational performance and accuracy for VVER-1000 DNB analyses.

  17. Development of ITER 3D neutronics model and nuclear analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Q.; Zheng, S.; Lu, L.; Li, Y.; Ding, A.; Hu, H.; Wu, Y.

    2007-01-01

    ITER nuclear analyses rely on the calculations with the three-dimensional (3D) Monte Carlo code e.g. the widely-used MCNP. However, continuous changes in the design of the components require the 3D neutronics model for nuclear analyses should be updated. Nevertheless, the modeling of a complex geometry with MCNP by hand is a very time-consuming task. It is an efficient way to develop CAD-based interface code for automatic conversion from CAD models to MCNP input files. Based on the latest CAD model and the available interface codes, the two approaches of updating 3D nuetronics model have been discussed by ITER IT (International Team): The first is to start with the existing MCNP model 'Brand' and update it through a combination of direct modification of the MCNP input file and generation of models for some components directly from the CAD data; The second is to start from the full CAD model, make the necessary simplifications, and generate the MCNP model by one of the interface codes. MCAM as an advanced CAD-based MCNP interface code developed by FDS Team in China has been successfully applied to update the ITER 3D neutronics model by adopting the above two approaches. The Brand model has been updated to generate portions of the geometry based on the newest CAD model by MCAM. MCAM has also successfully performed conversion to MCNP neutronics model from a full ITER CAD model which is simplified and issued by ITER IT to benchmark the above interface codes. Based on the two updated 3D neutronics models, the related nuclear analyses are performed. This paper presents the status of ITER 3D modeling by using MCAM and its nuclear analyses, as well as a brief introduction of advanced version of MCAM. (authors)

  18. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.

    1988-08-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

  19. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  20. Utilization of Large Scale Surface Models for Detailed Visibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caha, J.; Kačmařík, M.

    2017-11-01

    This article demonstrates utilization of large scale surface models with small spatial resolution and high accuracy, acquired from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle scanning, for visibility analyses. The importance of large scale data for visibility analyses on the local scale, where the detail of the surface model is the most defining factor, is described. The focus is not only the classic Boolean visibility, that is usually determined within GIS, but also on so called extended viewsheds that aims to provide more information about visibility. The case study with examples of visibility analyses was performed on river Opava, near the Ostrava city (Czech Republic). The multiple Boolean viewshed analysis and global horizon viewshed were calculated to determine most prominent features and visibility barriers of the surface. Besides that, the extended viewshed showing angle difference above the local horizon, which describes angular height of the target area above the barrier, is shown. The case study proved that large scale models are appropriate data source for visibility analyses on local level. The discussion summarizes possible future applications and further development directions of visibility analyses.

  1. Use of flow models to analyse loss of coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinet, Bernard

    1978-01-01

    This article summarises current work on developing the use of flow models to analyse loss-of-coolant accident in pressurized-water plants. This work is being done jointly, in the context of the LOCA Technical Committee, by the CEA, EDF and FRAMATOME. The construction of the flow model is very closely based on some theoretical studies of the two-fluid model. The laws of transfer at the interface and at the wall are tested experimentally. The representativity of the model then has to be checked in experiments involving several elementary physical phenomena [fr

  2. A Calculus for Modelling, Simulating and Analysing Compartmentalized Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mardare, Radu Iulian; Ihekwaba, Adoha

    2007-01-01

    A. Ihekwaba, R. Mardare. A Calculus for Modelling, Simulating and Analysing Compartmentalized Biological Systems. Case study: NFkB system. In Proc. of International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE), American Institute of Physics, AIP Proceedings, N 2...

  3. SVM models for analysing the headstreams of mine water inrush

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan Zhi-gang; Du Pei-jun; Guo Da-zhi [China University of Science and Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics

    2007-08-15

    The support vector machine (SVM) model was introduced to analyse the headstrean of water inrush in a coal mine. The SVM model, based on a hydrogeochemical method, was constructed for recognising two kinds of headstreams and the H-SVMs model was constructed for recognising multi- headstreams. The SVM method was applied to analyse the conditions of two mixed headstreams and the value of the SVM decision function was investigated as a means of denoting the hydrogeochemical abnormality. The experimental results show that the SVM is based on a strict mathematical theory, has a simple structure and a good overall performance. Moreover the parameter W in the decision function can describe the weights of discrimination indices of the headstream of water inrush. The value of the decision function can denote hydrogeochemistry abnormality, which is significant in the prevention of water inrush in a coal mine. 9 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.

  4. Vocational Teachers and Professionalism - A Model Based on Empirical Analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duch, Henriette Skjærbæk; Andreasen, Karen E

    Vocational Teachers and Professionalism - A Model Based on Empirical Analyses Several theorists has developed models to illustrate the processes of adult learning and professional development (e.g. Illeris, Argyris, Engeström; Wahlgren & Aarkorg, Kolb and Wenger). Models can sometimes be criticized...... emphasis on the adult employee, the organization, its surroundings as well as other contextual factors. Our concern is adult vocational teachers attending a pedagogical course and teaching at vocational colleges. The aim of the paper is to discuss different models and develop a model concerning teachers...... at vocational colleges based on empirical data in a specific context, vocational teacher-training course in Denmark. By offering a basis and concepts for analysis of practice such model is meant to support the development of vocational teachers’ professionalism at courses and in organizational contexts...

  5. Performance of neutron kinetics models for ADS transient analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Maschek, W.; Rimpault, G.

    2002-01-01

    Within the framework of the SIMMER code development, neutron kinetics models for simulating transients and hypothetical accidents in advanced reactor systems, in particular in Accelerator Driven Systems (ADSs), have been developed at FZK/IKET in cooperation with CE Cadarache. SIMMER is a fluid-dynamics/thermal-hydraulics code, coupled with a structure model and a space-, time- and energy-dependent neutronics module for analyzing transients and accidents. The advanced kinetics models have also been implemented into KIN3D, a module of the VARIANT/TGV code (stand-alone neutron kinetics) for broadening application and for testing and benchmarking. In the paper, a short review of the SIMMER and KIN3D neutron kinetics models is given. Some typical transients related to ADS perturbations are analyzed. The general models of SIMMER and KIN3D are compared with more simple techniques developed in the context of this work to get a better understanding of the specifics of transients in subcritical systems and to estimate the performance of different kinetics options. These comparisons may also help in elaborating new kinetics models and extending existing computation tools for ADS transient analyses. The traditional point-kinetics model may give rather inaccurate transient reaction rate distributions in an ADS even if the material configuration does not change significantly. This inaccuracy is not related to the problem of choosing a 'right' weighting function: the point-kinetics model with any weighting function cannot take into account pronounced flux shape variations related to possible significant changes in the criticality level or to fast beam trips. To improve the accuracy of the point-kinetics option for slow transients, we have introduced a correction factor technique. The related analyses give a better understanding of 'long-timescale' kinetics phenomena in the subcritical domain and help to evaluate the performance of the quasi-static scheme in a particular case. One

  6. Graphic-based musculoskeletal model for biomechanical analyses and animation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Edmund Y S

    2003-04-01

    The ability to combine physiology and engineering analyses with computer sciences has opened the door to the possibility of creating the 'Virtual Human' reality. This paper presents a broad foundation for a full-featured biomechanical simulator for the human musculoskeletal system physiology. This simulation technology unites the expertise in biomechanical analysis and graphic modeling to investigate joint and connective tissue mechanics at the structural level and to visualize the results in both static and animated forms together with the model. Adaptable anatomical models including prosthetic implants and fracture fixation devices and a robust computational infrastructure for static, kinematic, kinetic, and stress analyses under varying boundary and loading conditions are incorporated on a common platform, the VIMS (Virtual Interactive Musculoskeletal System). Within this software system, a manageable database containing long bone dimensions, connective tissue material properties and a library of skeletal joint system functional activities and loading conditions are also available and they can easily be modified, updated and expanded. Application software is also available to allow end-users to perform biomechanical analyses interactively. This paper details the design, capabilities, and features of the VIMS development at Johns Hopkins University, an effort possible only through academic and commercial collaborations. Examples using these models and the computational algorithms in a virtual laboratory environment are used to demonstrate the utility of this unique database and simulation technology. This integrated system will impact on medical education, basic research, device development and application, and clinical patient care related to musculoskeletal diseases, trauma, and rehabilitation.

  7. Model-based Recursive Partitioning for Subgroup Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Seibold, Heidi; Zeileis, Achim; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-01-01

    The identification of patient subgroups with differential treatment effects is the first step towards individualised treatments. A current draft guideline by the EMA discusses potentials and problems in subgroup analyses and formulated challenges to the development of appropriate statistical procedures for the data-driven identification of patient subgroups. We introduce model-based recursive partitioning as a procedure for the automated detection of patient subgroups that are identifiable by...

  8. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  9. A 1024 channel analyser of model FH 465

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Cunxun

    1988-01-01

    The FH 465 is renewed type of the 1024 Channel Analyser of model FH451. Besides simple operation and fine display, featured by the primary one, the core memory is replaced by semiconductor memory; the integration has been improved; employment of 74LS low power consumpted devices widely used in the world has not only greatly decreased the cost, but also can be easily interchanged with Apple-II, Great Wall-0520-CH or IBM-PC/XT Microcomputers. The operating principle, main specifications and test results are described

  10. Applications of one-dimensional models in simplified inelastic analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamal, S.A.; Chern, J.M.; Pai, D.H.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents an approximate inelastic analysis based on geometric simplification with emphasis on its applicability, modeling, and the method of defining the loading conditions. Two problems are investigated: a one-dimensional axisymmetric model of generalized plane strain thick-walled cylinder is applied to the primary sodium inlet nozzle of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Intermediate Heat Exchanger (CRBRP-IHX), and a finite cylindrical shell is used to simulate the branch shell forging (Y) junction. The results are then compared with the available detailed inelastic analyses under cyclic loading conditions in terms of creep and fatigue damages and inelastic ratchetting strains per the ASME Code Case N-47 requirements. In both problems, the one-dimensional simulation is able to trace the detailed stress-strain response. The quantitative comparison is good for the nozzle, but less satisfactory for the Y junction. Refinements are suggested to further improve the simulation

  11. A non-equilibrium neutral model for analysing cultural change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2013-08-07

    Neutral evolution is a frequently used model to analyse changes in frequencies of cultural variants over time. Variants are chosen to be copied according to their relative frequency and new variants are introduced by a process of random mutation. Here we present a non-equilibrium neutral model which accounts for temporally varying population sizes and mutation rates and makes it possible to analyse the cultural system under consideration at any point in time. This framework gives an indication whether observed changes in the frequency distributions of a set of cultural variants between two time points are consistent with the random copying hypothesis. We find that the likelihood of the existence of the observed assemblage at the end of the considered time period (expressed by the probability of the observed number of cultural variants present in the population during the whole period under neutral evolution) is a powerful indicator of departures from neutrality. Further, we study the effects of frequency-dependent selection on the evolutionary trajectories and present a case study of change in the decoration of pottery in early Neolithic Central Europe. Based on the framework developed we show that neutral evolution is not an adequate description of the observed changes in frequency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Multi-state models: metapopulation and life history analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnason, A. N.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi–state models are designed to describe populations that move among a fixed set of categorical states. The obvious application is to population interchange among geographic locations such as breeding sites or feeding areas (e.g., Hestbeck et al., 1991; Blums et al., 2003; Cam et al., 2004 but they are increasingly used to address important questions of evolutionary biology and life history strategies (Nichols & Kendall, 1995. In these applications, the states include life history stages such as breeding states. The multi–state models, by permitting estimation of stage–specific survival and transition rates, can help assess trade–offs between life history mechanisms (e.g. Yoccoz et al., 2000. These trade–offs are also important in meta–population analyses where, for example, the pre–and post–breeding rates of transfer among sub–populations can be analysed in terms of target colony distance, density, and other covariates (e.g., Lebreton et al. 2003; Breton et al., in review. Further examples of the use of multi–state models in analysing dispersal and life–history trade–offs can be found in the session on Migration and Dispersal. In this session, we concentrate on applications that did not involve dispersal. These applications fall in two main categories: those that address life history questions using stage categories, and a more technical use of multi–state models to address problems arising from the violation of mark–recapture assumptions leading to the potential for seriously biased predictions or misleading insights from the models. Our plenary paper, by William Kendall (Kendall, 2004, gives an overview of the use of Multi–state Mark–Recapture (MSMR models to address two such violations. The first is the occurrence of unobservable states that can arise, for example, from temporary emigration or by incomplete sampling coverage of a target population. Such states can also occur for life history reasons, such

  13. Model-Based Recursive Partitioning for Subgroup Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibold, Heidi; Zeileis, Achim; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-05-01

    The identification of patient subgroups with differential treatment effects is the first step towards individualised treatments. A current draft guideline by the EMA discusses potentials and problems in subgroup analyses and formulated challenges to the development of appropriate statistical procedures for the data-driven identification of patient subgroups. We introduce model-based recursive partitioning as a procedure for the automated detection of patient subgroups that are identifiable by predictive factors. The method starts with a model for the overall treatment effect as defined for the primary analysis in the study protocol and uses measures for detecting parameter instabilities in this treatment effect. The procedure produces a segmented model with differential treatment parameters corresponding to each patient subgroup. The subgroups are linked to predictive factors by means of a decision tree. The method is applied to the search for subgroups of patients suffering from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that differ with respect to their Riluzole treatment effect, the only currently approved drug for this disease.

  14. A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johansson Eva E

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers.

  15. A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risberg, Gunilla; Johansson, Eva E; Hamberg, Katarina

    2009-08-03

    During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers.

  16. Effect of the Grain Size of the Initial Structure of 1565chM Alloy on the Structure and Properties of the Joints Fabricated by Friction Stir Welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovchinnikov, V. V.; Drits, A. M.; Gureeva, M. A.; Malov, D. V.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of the initial grain size in the structure of the aluminum 1565chM alloy on the mechanical properties of the welded joints formed by friction stir welding and on the grain size in the weld core is studied. It is shown that the design of tool and, especially, the parameters of a screw groove exert a great effect on the grain size in the weld core.

  17. tavgU_2d_chm_Fx: MERRA Chem 2D IAU Diagnostics, Fluxes and Meteorology, Diurnal 1.25 x 1 degree V5.2.0 (MATUFXCHM) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MATUFXCHM or tavgU_3d_chm_Fx data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System Chemistry 2-Dimensional chemistry that is time averaged, single-level, at reduced...

  18. tavg3_2d_chm_Fx: MERRA Chem 2D IAU Diagnostics, Fluxes and Meteorology, Time Average 3-hourly 1.25 x 1 degree V5.2.0 (MAT3FXCHM) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MAT3FXCHM or tavg3_3d_chm_Fx data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System Chemistry 2-Dimensional chemistry that is time averaged, single-level, at reduced...

  19. Impact of sophisticated fog spray models on accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roblyer, S.P.; Owzarski, P.C.

    1978-01-01

    The N-Reactor confinement system release dose to the public in a postulated accident is reduced by washing the confinement atmosphere with fog sprays. This allows a low pressure release of confinement atmosphere containing fission products through filters and out an elevated stack. The current accident analysis required revision of the CORRAL code and other codes such as CONTEMPT to properly model the N Reactor confinement into a system of multiple fog-sprayed compartments. In revising these codes, more sophisticated models for the fog sprays and iodine plateout were incorporated to remove some of the conservatism of steam condensing rate, fission product washout and iodine plateout than used in previous studies. The CORRAL code, which was used to describe the transport and deposition of airborne fission products in LWR containment systems for the Rasmussen Study, was revised to describe fog spray removal of molecular iodine (I 2 ) and particulates in multiple compartments for sprays having individual characteristics of on-off times, flow rates, fall heights, and drop sizes in changing containment atmospheres. During postulated accidents, the code determined the fission product removal rates internally rather than from input decontamination factors. A discussion is given of how the calculated plateout and washout rates vary with time throughout the analysis. The results of the accident analyses indicated that more credit could be given to fission product washout and plateout. An important finding was that the release of fission products to the atmosphere and adsorption of fission products on the filters were significantly lower than previous studies had indicated

  20. A dialogue game for analysing group model building: framing collaborative modelling and its facilitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppenbrouwers, S.J.B.A.; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper concerns a specific approach to analysing and structuring operational situations in collaborative modelling. Collaborative modelling is viewed here as 'the goal-driven creation and shaping of models that are based on the principles of rational description and reasoning'. Our long term

  1. Micromechanical Failure Analyses for Finite Element Polymer Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CHAMBERS,ROBERT S.; REEDY JR.,EARL DAVID; LO,CHI S.; ADOLF,DOUGLAS B.; GUESS,TOMMY R.

    2000-11-01

    Polymer stresses around sharp corners and in constrained geometries of encapsulated components can generate cracks leading to system failures. Often, analysts use maximum stresses as a qualitative indicator for evaluating the strength of encapsulated component designs. Although this approach has been useful for making relative comparisons screening prospective design changes, it has not been tied quantitatively to failure. Accurate failure models are needed for analyses to predict whether encapsulated components meet life cycle requirements. With Sandia's recently developed nonlinear viscoelastic polymer models, it has been possible to examine more accurately the local stress-strain distributions in zones of likely failure initiation looking for physically based failure mechanisms and continuum metrics that correlate with the cohesive failure event. This study has identified significant differences between rubbery and glassy failure mechanisms that suggest reasonable alternatives for cohesive failure criteria and metrics. Rubbery failure seems best characterized by the mechanisms of finite extensibility and appears to correlate with maximum strain predictions. Glassy failure, however, seems driven by cavitation and correlates with the maximum hydrostatic tension. Using these metrics, two three-point bending geometries were tested and analyzed under variable loading rates, different temperatures and comparable mesh resolution (i.e., accuracy) to make quantitative failure predictions. The resulting predictions and observations agreed well suggesting the need for additional research. In a separate, additional study, the asymptotically singular stress state found at the tip of a rigid, square inclusion embedded within a thin, linear elastic disk was determined for uniform cooling. The singular stress field is characterized by a single stress intensity factor K{sub a} and the applicable K{sub a} calibration relationship has been determined for both fully bonded and

  2. Modelling and analysing interoperability in service compositions using COSMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quartel, Dick; van Sinderen, Marten J.

    2008-01-01

    A service composition process typically involves multiple service models. These models may represent the composite and composed services from distinct perspectives, e.g. to model the role of some system that is involved in a service, and at distinct abstraction levels, e.g. to model the goal,

  3. A comparison of linear tyre models for analysing shimmy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besselink, I.J.M.; Maas, J.W.L.H.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2011-01-01

    A comparison is made between three linear, dynamic tyre models using low speed step responses and yaw oscillation tests. The match with the measurements improves with increasing complexity of the tyre model. Application of the different tyre models to a two degree of freedom trailing arm suspension

  4. Modelling, singular perturbation and bifurcation analyses of bitrophic food chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooi, B W; Poggiale, J C

    2018-04-20

    Two predator-prey model formulations are studied: for the classical Rosenzweig-MacArthur (RM) model and the Mass Balance (MB) chemostat model. When the growth and loss rate of the predator is much smaller than that of the prey these models are slow-fast systems leading mathematically to singular perturbation problem. In contradiction to the RM-model, the resource for the prey are modelled explicitly in the MB-model but this comes with additional parameters. These parameter values are chosen such that the two models become easy to compare. In both models a transcritical bifurcation, a threshold above which invasion of predator into prey-only system occurs, and the Hopf bifurcation where the interior equilibrium becomes unstable leading to a stable limit cycle. The fast-slow limit cycles are called relaxation oscillations which for increasing differences in time scales leads to the well known degenerated trajectories being concatenations of slow parts of the trajectory and fast parts of the trajectory. In the fast-slow version of the RM-model a canard explosion of the stable limit cycles occurs in the oscillatory region of the parameter space. To our knowledge this type of dynamics has not been observed for the RM-model and not even for more complex ecosystem models. When a bifurcation parameter crosses the Hopf bifurcation point the amplitude of the emerging stable limit cycles increases. However, depending of the perturbation parameter the shape of this limit cycle changes abruptly from one consisting of two concatenated slow and fast episodes with small amplitude of the limit cycle, to a shape with large amplitude of which the shape is similar to the relaxation oscillation, the well known degenerated phase trajectories consisting of four episodes (concatenation of two slow and two fast). The canard explosion point is accurately predicted by using an extended asymptotic expansion technique in the perturbation and bifurcation parameter simultaneously where the small

  5. Analysing the Linux kernel feature model changes using FMDiff

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dintzner, N.J.R.; van Deursen, A.; Pinzger, M.

    Evolving a large scale, highly variable system is a challenging task. For such a system, evolution operations often require to update consistently both their implementation and its feature model. In this context, the evolution of the feature model closely follows the evolution of the system. The

  6. Analysing the Linux kernel feature model changes using FMDiff

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dintzner, N.J.R.; Van Deursen, A.; Pinzger, M.

    2015-01-01

    Evolving a large scale, highly variable system is a challenging task. For such a system, evolution operations often require to update consistently both their implementation and its feature model. In this context, the evolution of the feature model closely follows the evolution of the system. The

  7. Analysing Models as a Knowledge Technology in Transport Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudmundsson, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    critical analytic literature on knowledge utilization and policy influence. A simple scheme based in this literature is drawn up to provide a framework for discussing the interface between urban transport planning and model use. A successful example of model use in Stockholm, Sweden is used as a heuristic......Models belong to a wider family of knowledge technologies, applied in the transport area. Models sometimes share with other such technologies the fate of not being used as intended, or not at all. The result may be ill-conceived plans as well as wasted resources. Frequently, the blame...... device to illuminate how such an analytic scheme may allow patterns of insight about the use, influence and role of models in planning to emerge. The main contribution of the paper is to demonstrate that concepts and terminologies from knowledge use literature can provide interpretations of significance...

  8. GOTHIC MODEL OF BWR SECONDARY CONTAINMENT DRAWDOWN ANALYSES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, P.N.

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces a GOTHIC version 7.1 model of the Secondary Containment Reactor Building Post LOCA drawdown analysis for a BWR. GOTHIC is an EPRI sponsored thermal hydraulic code. This analysis is required by the Utility to demonstrate an ability to restore and maintain the Secondary Containment Reactor Building negative pressure condition. The technical and regulatory issues associated with this modeling are presented. The analysis includes the affect of wind, elevation and thermal impacts on pressure conditions. The model includes a multiple volume representation which includes the spent fuel pool. In addition, heat sources and sinks are modeled as one dimensional heat conductors. The leakage into the building is modeled to include both laminar as well as turbulent behavior as established by actual plant test data. The GOTHIC code provides components to model heat exchangers used to provide fuel pool cooling as well as area cooling via air coolers. The results of the evaluation are used to demonstrate the time that the Reactor Building is at a pressure that exceeds external conditions. This time period is established with the GOTHIC model based on the worst case pressure conditions on the building. For this time period the Utility must assume the primary containment leakage goes directly to the environment. Once the building pressure is restored below outside conditions the release to the environment can be credited as a filtered release

  9. Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

  10. A shock absorber model for structure-borne noise analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benaziz, Marouane; Nacivet, Samuel; Thouverez, Fabrice

    2015-08-01

    Shock absorbers are often responsible for undesirable structure-borne noise in cars. The early numerical prediction of this noise in the automobile development process can save time and money and yet remains a challenge for industry. In this paper, a new approach to predicting shock absorber structure-borne noise is proposed; it consists in modelling the shock absorber and including the main nonlinear phenomena responsible for discontinuities in the response. The model set forth herein features: compressible fluid behaviour, nonlinear flow rate-pressure relations, valve mechanical equations and rubber mounts. The piston, base valve and complete shock absorber model are compared with experimental results. Sensitivity of the shock absorber response is evaluated and the most important parameters are classified. The response envelope is also computed. This shock absorber model is able to accurately reproduce local nonlinear phenomena and improves our state of knowledge on potential noise sources within the shock absorber.

  11. Plasma-safety assessment model and safety analyses of ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, T.; Okazaki, T.; Bartels, H.-H.; Uckan, N.A.; Sugihara, M.; Seki, Y.

    2001-01-01

    A plasma-safety assessment model has been provided on the basis of the plasma physics database of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) to analyze events including plasma behavior. The model was implemented in a safety analysis code (SAFALY), which consists of a 0-D dynamic plasma model and a 1-D thermal behavior model of the in-vessel components. Unusual plasma events of ITER, e.g., overfueling, were calculated using the code and plasma burning is found to be self-bounded by operation limits or passively shut down due to impurity ingress from overheated divertor targets. Sudden transition of divertor plasma might lead to failure of the divertor target because of a sharp increase of the heat flux. However, the effects of the aggravating failure can be safely handled by the confinement boundaries. (author)

  12. Modeling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Jerome [CNRS, Aix-Marseille Univ, Universite de Toulon, CPT UMR 7332, Marseille Cedex 9 (France); Descotes-Genon, Sebastien [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Niess, Valentin [CNRS/IN2P3, UMR 6533, Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire, Aubiere Cedex (France); Silva, Luiz Vale [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Groupe de Physique Theorique, Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Orsay Cedex (France); J. Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, P. O. Box 3000, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2017-04-15

    The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding p values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive p value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavor physics. (orig.)

  13. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.; Mai, Paul Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  14. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2014-11-10

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  15. Business models for telehealth in the US: analyses and insights

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pereira F

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Francis Pereira Data Sciences and Operations, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern, Los Angeles, CA, USAAbstract: A growing shortage of medical doctors and nurses, globally, coupled with increasing life expectancy, is generating greater cost pressures on health care, in the US and globally. In this respect, telehealth can help alleviate these pressures, as well as extend medical services to underserved or unserved areas. However, its relatively slow adoption in the US, as well as in other markets, suggests the presence of barriers and challenges. The use of a business model framework helps identify the value proposition of telehealth as well as these challenges, which include identifying the right revenue model, organizational structure, and, perhaps more importantly, the stakeholders in the telehealth ecosystem. Successful and cost-effective deployment of telehealth require a redefinition of the ecosystem and a comprehensive review of all benefits and beneficiaries of such a system; hence a reassessment of all the stakeholders that could benefit from such a system, beyond the traditional patient–health provider–insurer model, and thus “who should pay” for such a system, and the driving efforts of a “keystone” player in developing this initiative would help. Keywords: telehealth, business model framework, stakeholders, ecosystem, VISOR business Model

  16. A Cyber-Attack Detection Model Based on Multivariate Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Yuto; Rinsaka, Koichiro; Dohi, Tadashi

    In the present paper, we propose a novel cyber-attack detection model based on two multivariate-analysis methods to the audit data observed on a host machine. The statistical techniques used here are the well-known Hayashi's quantification method IV and cluster analysis method. We quantify the observed qualitative audit event sequence via the quantification method IV, and collect similar audit event sequence in the same groups based on the cluster analysis. It is shown in simulation experiments that our model can improve the cyber-attack detection accuracy in some realistic cases where both normal and attack activities are intermingled.

  17. Model analyses for sustainable energy supply under CO2 restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Ishitani, Hisashi.

    1995-01-01

    This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, possibility of solar breeding system is investigated as a key technology for the sustainable energy supply. The authors describe their mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. Depletion of non-renewable resources and constraints on CO 2 emissions are taken into consideration in the model. Computed results have shown that present energy system based on non-renewable resources shifts to a system based on renewable resources in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives

  18. Models for transient analyses in advanced test reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrielli, Fabrizio

    2011-01-01

    Several strategies are developed worldwide to respond to the world's increasing demand for electricity. Modern nuclear facilities are under construction or in the planning phase. In parallel, advanced nuclear reactor concepts are being developed to achieve sustainability, minimize waste, and ensure uranium resources. To optimize the performance of components (fuels and structures) of these systems, significant efforts are under way to design new Material Test Reactors facilities in Europe which employ water as a coolant. Safety provisions and the analyses of severe accidents are key points in the determination of sound designs. In this frame, the SIMMER multiphysics code systems is a very attractive tool as it can simulate transients and phenomena within and beyond the design basis in a tightly coupled way. This thesis is primarily focused upon the extension of the SIMMER multigroup cross-sections processing scheme (based on the Bondarenko method) for a proper heterogeneity treatment in the analyses of water-cooled thermal neutron systems. Since the SIMMER code was originally developed for liquid metal-cooled fast reactors analyses, the effect of heterogeneity had been neglected. As a result, the application of the code to water-cooled systems leads to a significant overestimation of the reactivity feedbacks and in turn to non-conservative results. To treat the heterogeneity, the multigroup cross-sections should be computed by properly taking account of the resonance self-shielding effects and the fine intra-cell flux distribution in space group-wise. In this thesis, significant improvements of the SIMMER cross-section processing scheme are described. A new formulation of the background cross-section, based on the Bell and Wigner correlations, is introduced and pre-calculated reduction factors (Effective Mean Chord Lengths) are used to take proper account of the resonance self-shielding effects of non-fuel isotopes. Moreover, pre-calculated parameters are applied

  19. A Formal Model to Analyse the Firewall Configuration Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. T. Myo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The firewall is widely known as a brandmauer (security-edge gateway. To provide the demanded security, the firewall has to be appropriately adjusted, i.e. be configured. Unfortunately, when configuring, even the skilled administrators may make mistakes, which result in decreasing level of a network security and network infiltration undesirable packages.The network can be exposed to various threats and attacks. One of the mechanisms used to ensure network security is the firewall.The firewall is a network component, which, using a security policy, controls packages passing through the borders of a secured network. The security policy represents the set of rules.Package filters work in the mode without inspection of a state: they investigate packages as the independent objects. Rules take the following form: (condition, action. The firewall analyses the entering traffic, based on the IP address of the sender and recipient, the port number of the sender and recipient, and the used protocol. When the package meets rule conditions, the action specified in the rule is carried out. It can be: allow, deny.The aim of this article is to develop tools to analyse a firewall configuration with inspection of states. The input data are the file with the set of rules. It is required to submit the analysis of a security policy in an informative graphic form as well as to reveal discrepancy available in rules. The article presents a security policy visualization algorithm and a program, which shows how the firewall rules act on all possible packages. To represent a result in an intelligible form a concept of the equivalence region is introduced.Our task is the program to display results of rules action on the packages in a convenient graphic form as well as to reveal contradictions between the rules. One of problems is the large number of measurements. As it was noted above, the following parameters are specified in the rule: Source IP address, appointment IP

  20. Theoretical modeling and experimental analyses of laminated wood composite poles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng Piao; Todd F. Shupe; Vijaya Gopu; Chung Y. Hse

    2005-01-01

    Wood laminated composite poles consist of trapezoid-shaped wood strips bonded with synthetic resin. The thick-walled hollow poles had adequate strength and stiffness properties and were a promising substitute for solid wood poles. It was necessary to develop theoretical models to facilitate the manufacture and future installation and maintenance of this novel...

  1. Gene Discovery and Functional Analyses in the Model Plant Arabidopsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Cai-ping; Mundy, J.

    2006-01-01

    The present mini-review describes newer methods and strategies, including transposon and T-DNA insertions, TILLING, Deleteagene, and RNA interference, to functionally analyze genes of interest in the model plant Arabidopsis. The relative advantages and disadvantages of the systems are also discus...

  2. Capacity allocation in wireless communication networks - models and analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, Remco

    2003-01-01

    This monograph has concentrated on capacity allocation in cellular and Wireless Local Area Networks, primarily with a network operator’s perspective. In the introduc- tory chapter, a reference model has been proposed for the extensive suite of capacity allocation mechanisms that can be applied at

  3. Vegetable parenting practices scale: Item response modeling analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our objective was to evaluate the psychometric properties of a vegetable parenting practices scale using multidimensional polytomous item response modeling which enables assessing item fit to latent variables and the distributional characteristics of the items in comparison to the respondents. We al...

  4. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  5. Analyses of Lattice Traffic Flow Model on a Gradient Highway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta Arvind Kumar; Redhu Poonam; Sharma Sapna

    2014-01-01

    The optimal current difference lattice hydrodynamic model is extended to investigate the traffic flow dynamics on a unidirectional single lane gradient highway. The effect of slope on uphill/downhill highway is examined through linear stability analysis and shown that the slope significantly affects the stability region on the phase diagram. Using nonlinear stability analysis, the Burgers, Korteweg-deVries (KdV) and modified Korteweg-deVries (mKdV) equations are derived in stable, metastable and unstable region, respectively. The effect of reaction coefficient is examined and concluded that it plays an important role in suppressing the traffic jams on a gradient highway. The theoretical findings have been verified through numerical simulation which confirm that the slope on a gradient highway significantly influence the traffic dynamics and traffic jam can be suppressed efficiently by considering the optimal current difference effect in the new lattice model. (nuclear physics)

  6. Aggregated Wind Park Models for Analysing Power System Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poeller, Markus; Achilles, Sebastian [DIgSILENT GmbH, Gomaringen (Germany)

    2003-11-01

    The increasing amount of wind power generation in European power systems requires stability analysis considering interaction between wind-farms and transmission systems. Dynamics introduced by dispersed wind generators at the distribution level can usually be neglected. However, large on- and offshore wind farms have a considerable influence to power system dynamics and must definitely be considered for analyzing power system dynamics. Compared to conventional power stations, wind power plants consist of a large number of generators of small size. Therefore, representing every wind generator individually increases the calculation time of dynamic simulations considerably. Therefore, model aggregation techniques should be applied for reducing calculation times. This paper presents aggregated models for wind parks consisting of fixed or variable speed wind generators.

  7. A simulation model for analysing brain structure deformations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bona, Sergio Di [Institute for Information Science and Technologies, Italian National Research Council (ISTI-8211-CNR), Via G Moruzzi, 1-56124 Pisa (Italy); Lutzemberger, Ludovico [Department of Neuroscience, Institute of Neurosurgery, University of Pisa, Via Roma, 67-56100 Pisa (Italy); Salvetti, Ovidio [Institute for Information Science and Technologies, Italian National Research Council (ISTI-8211-CNR), Via G Moruzzi, 1-56124 Pisa (Italy)

    2003-12-21

    Recent developments of medical software applications from the simulation to the planning of surgical operations have revealed the need for modelling human tissues and organs, not only from a geometric point of view but also from a physical one, i.e. soft tissues, rigid body, viscoelasticity, etc. This has given rise to the term 'deformable objects', which refers to objects with a morphology, a physical and a mechanical behaviour of their own and that reflects their natural properties. In this paper, we propose a model, based upon physical laws, suitable for the realistic manipulation of geometric reconstructions of volumetric data taken from MR and CT scans. In particular, a physically based model of the brain is presented that is able to simulate the evolution of different nature pathological intra-cranial phenomena such as haemorrhages, neoplasm, haematoma, etc and to describe the consequences that are caused by their volume expansions and the influences they have on the anatomical and neuro-functional structures of the brain.

  8. Sequence Modeling for Analysing Student Interaction with Educational Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Christian; Hansen, Casper; Hjuler, Niklas Oskar Daniel

    2017-01-01

    as exhibiting unproductive student behaviour. Based on our results this student representation is promising, especially for educational systems offering many different learning usages, and offers an alternative to common approaches like modelling student behaviour as a single Markov chain often done......The analysis of log data generated by online educational systems is an important task for improving the systems, and furthering our knowledge of how students learn. This paper uses previously unseen log data from Edulab, the largest provider of digital learning for mathematics in Denmark...

  9. On model-independent analyses of elastic hadron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.F.; Campos, S.D.; Menon, M.J.; Montanha, J.

    2007-01-01

    By means of an almost model-independent parametrization for the elastic hadron-hadron amplitude, as a function of the energy and the momentum transfer, we obtain good descriptions of the physical quantities that characterize elastic proton-proton and antiproton-proton scattering (total cross section, r parameter and differential cross section). The parametrization is inferred on empirical grounds and selected according to high energy theorems and limits from axiomatic quantum field theory. Based on the predictive character of the approach we present predictions for the above physical quantities at the Brookhaven RHIC, Fermilab Tevatron and CERN LHC energies. (author)

  10. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to analyse French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2007-01-01

    In order to comply with European Union objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated on the basis of two criteria: tax exemption on fossil fuels and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and an oil refining optimization model. Thus, we determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducting the biofuel long-run marginal revenue of refiners from the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production. With a clear view of the refiner's economic choices, total pollutant emissions along the biofuel production chains are quantified and used to feed an LCA. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and demand for petroleum products and consequently these parameters should be taken into account by authorities to modulate biofuel tax exemption. LCA results show that biofuel production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010

  11. Glycomic analyses of mouse models of congenital muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stalnaker, Stephanie H; Aoki, Kazuhiro; Lim, Jae-Min; Porterfield, Mindy; Liu, Mian; Satz, Jakob S; Buskirk, Sean; Xiong, Yufang; Zhang, Peng; Campbell, Kevin P; Hu, Huaiyu; Live, David; Tiemeyer, Michael; Wells, Lance

    2011-06-17

    Dystroglycanopathies are a subset of congenital muscular dystrophies wherein α-dystroglycan (α-DG) is hypoglycosylated. α-DG is an extensively O-glycosylated extracellular matrix-binding protein and a key component of the dystrophin-glycoprotein complex. Previous studies have shown α-DG to be post-translationally modified by both O-GalNAc- and O-mannose-initiated glycan structures. Mutations in defined or putative glycosyltransferase genes involved in O-mannosylation are associated with a loss of ligand-binding activity of α-DG and are causal for various forms of congenital muscular dystrophy. In this study, we sought to perform glycomic analysis on brain O-linked glycan structures released from proteins of three different knock-out mouse models associated with O-mannosylation (POMGnT1, LARGE (Myd), and DAG1(-/-)). Using mass spectrometry approaches, we were able to identify nine O-mannose-initiated and 25 O-GalNAc-initiated glycan structures in wild-type littermate control mouse brains. Through our analysis, we were able to confirm that POMGnT1 is essential for the extension of all observed O-mannose glycan structures with β1,2-linked GlcNAc. Loss of LARGE expression in the Myd mouse had no observable effect on the O-mannose-initiated glycan structures characterized here. Interestingly, we also determined that similar amounts of O-mannose-initiated glycan structures are present on brain proteins from α-DG-lacking mice (DAG1) compared with wild-type mice, indicating that there must be additional proteins that are O-mannosylated in the mammalian brain. Our findings illustrate that classical β1,2-elongation and β1,6-GlcNAc branching of O-mannose glycan structures are dependent upon the POMGnT1 enzyme and that O-mannosylation is not limited solely to α-DG in the brain.

  12. IDM-PhyChm-Ens: intelligent decision-making ensemble methodology for classification of human breast cancer using physicochemical properties of amino acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah

    2014-04-01

    Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our

  13. Longitudinal Data Analyses Using Linear Mixed Models in SPSS: Concepts, Procedures and Illustrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. L. Shek

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although different methods are available for the analyses of longitudinal data, analyses based on generalized linear models (GLM are criticized as violating the assumption of independence of observations. Alternatively, linear mixed models (LMM are commonly used to understand changes in human behavior over time. In this paper, the basic concepts surrounding LMM (or hierarchical linear models are outlined. Although SPSS is a statistical analyses package commonly used by researchers, documentation on LMM procedures in SPSS is not thorough or user friendly. With reference to this limitation, the related procedures for performing analyses based on LMM in SPSS are described. To demonstrate the application of LMM analyses in SPSS, findings based on six waves of data collected in the Project P.A.T.H.S. (Positive Adolescent Training through Holistic Social Programmes in Hong Kong are presented.

  14. Longitudinal data analyses using linear mixed models in SPSS: concepts, procedures and illustrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shek, Daniel T L; Ma, Cecilia M S

    2011-01-05

    Although different methods are available for the analyses of longitudinal data, analyses based on generalized linear models (GLM) are criticized as violating the assumption of independence of observations. Alternatively, linear mixed models (LMM) are commonly used to understand changes in human behavior over time. In this paper, the basic concepts surrounding LMM (or hierarchical linear models) are outlined. Although SPSS is a statistical analyses package commonly used by researchers, documentation on LMM procedures in SPSS is not thorough or user friendly. With reference to this limitation, the related procedures for performing analyses based on LMM in SPSS are described. To demonstrate the application of LMM analyses in SPSS, findings based on six waves of data collected in the Project P.A.T.H.S. (Positive Adolescent Training through Holistic Social Programmes) in Hong Kong are presented.

  15. Provisional safety analyses for SGT stage 2 -- Models, codes and general modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-12-01

    In the framework of the provisional safety analyses for Stage 2 of the Sectoral Plan for Deep Geological Repositories (SGT), deterministic modelling of radionuclide release from the barrier system along the groundwater pathway during the post-closure period of a deep geological repository is carried out. The calculated radionuclide release rates are interpreted as annual effective dose for an individual and assessed against the regulatory protection criterion 1 of 0.1 mSv per year. These steps are referred to as dose calculations. Furthermore, from the results of the dose calculations so-called characteristic dose intervals are determined, which provide input to the safety-related comparison of the geological siting regions in SGT Stage 2. Finally, the results of the dose calculations are also used to illustrate and to evaluate the post-closure performance of the barrier systems under consideration. The principal objective of this report is to describe comprehensively the technical aspects of the dose calculations. These aspects comprise: · the generic conceptual models of radionuclide release from the solid waste forms, of radionuclide transport through the system of engineered and geological barriers, of radionuclide transfer in the biosphere, as well as of the potential radiation exposure of the population, · the mathematical models for the explicitly considered release and transport processes, as well as for the radiation exposure pathways that are included, · the implementation of the mathematical models in numerical codes, including an overview of these codes and the most relevant verification steps, · the general modelling approach when using the codes, in particular the generic assumptions needed to model the near field and the geosphere, along with some numerical details, · a description of the work flow related to the execution of the calculations and of the software tools that are used to facilitate the modelling process, and · an overview of the

  16. Provisional safety analyses for SGT stage 2 -- Models, codes and general modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2014-12-15

    In the framework of the provisional safety analyses for Stage 2 of the Sectoral Plan for Deep Geological Repositories (SGT), deterministic modelling of radionuclide release from the barrier system along the groundwater pathway during the post-closure period of a deep geological repository is carried out. The calculated radionuclide release rates are interpreted as annual effective dose for an individual and assessed against the regulatory protection criterion 1 of 0.1 mSv per year. These steps are referred to as dose calculations. Furthermore, from the results of the dose calculations so-called characteristic dose intervals are determined, which provide input to the safety-related comparison of the geological siting regions in SGT Stage 2. Finally, the results of the dose calculations are also used to illustrate and to evaluate the post-closure performance of the barrier systems under consideration. The principal objective of this report is to describe comprehensively the technical aspects of the dose calculations. These aspects comprise: · the generic conceptual models of radionuclide release from the solid waste forms, of radionuclide transport through the system of engineered and geological barriers, of radionuclide transfer in the biosphere, as well as of the potential radiation exposure of the population, · the mathematical models for the explicitly considered release and transport processes, as well as for the radiation exposure pathways that are included, · the implementation of the mathematical models in numerical codes, including an overview of these codes and the most relevant verification steps, · the general modelling approach when using the codes, in particular the generic assumptions needed to model the near field and the geosphere, along with some numerical details, · a description of the work flow related to the execution of the calculations and of the software tools that are used to facilitate the modelling process, and · an overview of the

  17. On the use of uncertainty analyses to test hypotheses regarding deterministic model predictions of environmental processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.O.; Bittner, E.A.; Essington, E.H.

    1995-01-01

    This paper illustrates the use of Monte Carlo parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test hypotheses regarding predictions of deterministic models of environmental transport, dose, risk and other phenomena. The methodology is illustrated by testing whether 238 Pu is transferred more readily than 239+240 Pu from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle to their tissues (muscle, liver and blood). This illustration is based on a study wherein beef-cattle grazed for up to 1064 days on a fenced plutonium (Pu)-contaminated arid site in Area 13 near the Nevada Test Site in the United States. Periodically, cattle were sacrificed and their tissues analyzed for Pu and other radionuclides. Conditional sensitivity analyses of the model predictions were also conducted. These analyses indicated that Pu cattle tissue concentrations had the largest impact of any model parameter on the pdf of predicted Pu fractional transfers. Issues that arise in conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of deterministic models are discussed. (author)

  18. Analyses and simulations in income frame regulation model for the network sector from 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askeland, Thomas Haave; Fjellstad, Bjoern

    2007-01-01

    Analyses of the income frame regulation model for the network sector in Norway, introduced 1.st of January 2007. The model's treatment of the norm cost is evaluated, especially the effect analyses carried out by a so called Data Envelopment Analysis model. It is argued that there may exist an age lopsidedness in the data set, and that this should and can be corrected in the effect analyses. The adjustment is proposed corrected for by introducing an age parameter in the data set. Analyses of how the calibration effects in the regulation model affect the business' total income frame, as well as each network company's income frame have been made. It is argued that the calibration, the way it is presented, is not working according to its intention, and should be adjusted in order to provide the sector with the rate of reference in return (ml)

  19. Pathway models for analysing and managing the introduction of alien plant pests - an overview and categorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douma, J.C.; Pautasso, M.; Venette, R.C.; Robinet, C.; Hemerik, L.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Schans, J.; Werf, van der W.

    2016-01-01

    Alien plant pests are introduced into new areas at unprecedented rates through global trade, transport, tourism and travel, threatening biodiversity and agriculture. Increasingly, the movement and introduction of pests is analysed with pathway models to provide risk managers with quantitative

  20. An IEEE 802.11 EDCA Model with Support for Analysing Networks with Misbehaving Nodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szott Szymon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel model of IEEE 802.11 EDCA with support for analysing networks with misbehaving nodes. In particular, we consider backoff misbehaviour. Firstly, we verify the model by extensive simulation analysis and by comparing it to three other IEEE 802.11 models. The results show that our model behaves satisfactorily and outperforms other widely acknowledged models. Secondly, a comparison with simulation results in several scenarios with misbehaving nodes proves that our model performs correctly for these scenarios. The proposed model can, therefore, be considered as an original contribution to the area of EDCA models and backoff misbehaviour.

  1. Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

    1998-01-01

    The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

  2. Global analyses of historical masonry buildings: Equivalent frame vs. 3D solid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Mezzapelle, Pardo Antonio; Cocchi, Gianmichele; Lenci, Stefano

    2017-07-01

    The paper analyses the seismic vulnerability of two different masonry buildings. It provides both an advanced 3D modelling with solid elements and an equivalent frame modelling. The global structural behaviour and the dynamic properties of the compound have been evaluated using the Finite Element Modelling (FEM) technique, where the nonlinear behaviour of masonry has been taken into account by proper constitutive assumptions. A sensitivity analysis is done to evaluate the effect of the choice of the structural models.

  3. Material model for non-linear finite element analyses of large concrete structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engen, Morten; Hendriks, M.A.N.; Øverli, Jan Arve; Åldstedt, Erik; Beushausen, H.

    2016-01-01

    A fully triaxial material model for concrete was implemented in a commercial finite element code. The only required input parameter was the cylinder compressive strength. The material model was suitable for non-linear finite element analyses of large concrete structures. The importance of including

  4. USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

  5. Taxing CO2 and subsidising biomass: Analysed in a macroeconomic and sectoral model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the combination of taxes and subsidies as an instrument to enable a reduction in CO2 emission. The objective of the study is to compare recycling of a CO2 tax revenue as a subsidy for biomass use as opposed to traditional recycling such as reduced income or corporate taxation....... A model of Denmark's energy supply sector is used to analyse the e€ect of a CO2 tax combined with using the tax revenue for biomass subsidies. The energy supply model is linked to a macroeconomic model such that the macroeconomic consequences of tax policies can be analysed along with the consequences...... for speci®c sectors such as agriculture. Electricity and heat are produced at heat and power plants utilising fuels which minimise total fuel cost, while the authorities regulate capacity expansion technologies. The e€ect of fuel taxes and subsidies on fuels is very sensitive to the fuel substitution...

  6. Experimental and Computational Modal Analyses for Launch Vehicle Models considering Liquid Propellant and Flange Joints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-Hoon Sim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, modal tests and analyses are performed for a simplified and scaled first-stage model of a space launch vehicle using liquid propellant. This study aims to establish finite element modeling techniques for computational modal analyses by considering the liquid propellant and flange joints of launch vehicles. The modal tests measure the natural frequencies and mode shapes in the first and second lateral bending modes. As the liquid filling ratio increases, the measured frequencies decrease. In addition, as the number of flange joints increases, the measured natural frequencies increase. Computational modal analyses using the finite element method are conducted. The liquid is modeled by the virtual mass method, and the flange joints are modeled using one-dimensional spring elements along with the node-to-node connection. Comparison of the modal test results and predicted natural frequencies shows good or moderate agreement. The correlation between the modal tests and analyses establishes finite element modeling techniques for modeling the liquid propellant and flange joints of space launch vehicles.

  7. Present status of theories and data analyses of mathematical models for carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kawaguchi, Isao

    2007-01-01

    Reviewed are the basic mathematical models (hazard functions), present trend of the model studies and that for radiation carcinogenesis. Hazard functions of carcinogenesis are described for multi-stage model and 2-event model related with cell dynamics. At present, the age distribution of cancer mortality is analyzed, relationship between mutation and carcinogenesis is discussed, and models for colorectal carcinogenesis are presented. As for radiation carcinogenesis, models of Armitage-Doll and of generalized MVK (Moolgavkar, Venson, Knudson, 1971-1990) by 2-stage clonal expansion have been applied to analysis of carcinogenesis in A-bomb survivors, workers in uranium mine (Rn exposure) and smoking doctors in UK and other cases, of which characteristics are discussed. In analyses of A-bomb survivors, models above are applied to solid tumors and leukemia to see the effect, if any, of stage, age of exposure, time progression etc. In miners and smokers, stages of the initiation, promotion and progression in carcinogenesis are discussed on the analyses. Others contain the analyses of workers in Canadian atomic power plant, and of patients who underwent the radiation therapy. Model analysis can help to understand the carcinogenic process in a quantitative aspect rather than to describe the process. (R.T.)

  8. Comparison of linear measurements and analyses taken from plaster models and three-dimensional images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Betina Grehs; Porto, Thiago Soares; Silva, Monica Barros; Grehs, Renésio Armindo; Pinto, Ary dos Santos; Bhandi, Shilpa H; Tonetto, Mateus Rodrigues; Bandéca, Matheus Coelho; dos Santos-Pinto, Lourdes Aparecida Martins

    2014-11-01

    Digital models are an alternative for carrying out analyses and devising treatment plans in orthodontics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and the reproducibility of measurements of tooth sizes, interdental distances and analyses of occlusion using plaster models and their digital images. Thirty pairs of plaster models were chosen at random, and the digital images of each plaster model were obtained using a laser scanner (3Shape R-700, 3Shape A/S). With the plaster models, the measurements were taken using a caliper (Mitutoyo Digimatic(®), Mitutoyo (UK) Ltd) and the MicroScribe (MS) 3DX (Immersion, San Jose, Calif). For the digital images, the measurement tools used were those from the O3d software (Widialabs, Brazil). The data obtained were compared statistically using the Dahlberg formula, analysis of variance and the Tukey test (p < 0.05). The majority of the measurements, obtained using the caliper and O3d were identical, and both were significantly different from those obtained using the MS. Intra-examiner agreement was lowest when using the MS. The results demonstrated that the accuracy and reproducibility of the tooth measurements and analyses from the plaster models using the caliper and from the digital models using O3d software were identical.

  9. arXiv Statistical Analyses of Higgs- and Z-Portal Dark Matter Models

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Marzola, Luca; Raidal, Martti

    2018-06-12

    We perform frequentist and Bayesian statistical analyses of Higgs- and Z-portal models of dark matter particles with spin 0, 1/2 and 1. Our analyses incorporate data from direct detection and indirect detection experiments, as well as LHC searches for monojet and monophoton events, and we also analyze the potential impacts of future direct detection experiments. We find acceptable regions of the parameter spaces for Higgs-portal models with real scalar, neutral vector, Majorana or Dirac fermion dark matter particles, and Z-portal models with Majorana or Dirac fermion dark matter particles. In many of these cases, there are interesting prospects for discovering dark matter particles in Higgs or Z decays, as well as dark matter particles weighing $\\gtrsim 100$ GeV. Negative results from planned direct detection experiments would still allow acceptable regions for Higgs- and Z-portal models with Majorana or Dirac fermion dark matter particles.

  10. Vibration tests and analyses of the reactor building model on a small scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Hideo; Tanaka, Mitsuru; Ogihara, Yukio; Moriyama, Ken-ichi; Nakayama, Masaaki

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the vibration tests and the simulation analyses of the reactor building model on a small scale. The model vibration tests were performed to investigate the vibrational characteristics of the combined super-structure and to verify the computor code based on Dr. H. Tajimi's Thin Layered Element Theory, using the uniaxial shaking table (60 cm x 60 cm). The specimens consist of ground model, three structural model (prestressed concrete containment vessel, inner concrete structure, and enclosure building), a combined structural model and a combined structure-soil interaction model. These models are made of silicon-rubber, and they have a scale of 1:600. Harmonic step by step excitation of 40 gals was performed to investigate the vibrational characteristics for each structural model. The responses of the specimen to harmonic excitation were measured by optical displacement meters, and analyzed by a real time spectrum analyzer. The resonance and phase lag curves of the specimens to the shaking table were obtained respectively. As for the tests of a combined structure-soil interaction model, three predominant frequencies were observed in the resonance curves. These values were in good agreement with the analytical transfer function curves on the computer code. From the vibration tests and the simulation analyses, the silicon-rubber model test is useful for the fundamental study of structural problems. The computer code based on the Thin Element Theory can simulate well the test results. (Kobozono, M.)

  11. Comparison of plasma input and reference tissue models for analysing [(11)C]flumazenil studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpers, Ursula M. H.; Veltman, Dick J.; Boellaard, Ronald; Comans, Emile F.; Zuketto, Cassandra; Yaqub, Maqsood; Mourik, Jurgen E. M.; Lubberink, Mark; Hoogendijk, Witte J. G.; Lammertsma, Adriaan A.

    2008-01-01

    A single-tissue compartment model with plasma input is the established method for analysing [(11)C]flumazenil ([(11)C]FMZ) studies. However, arterial cannulation and measurement of metabolites are time-consuming. Therefore, a reference tissue approach is appealing, but this approach has not been

  12. Kinetic analyses and mathematical modeling of primary photochemical and photoelectrochemical processes in plant photosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vredenberg, W.J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the model and simulation of primary photochemical and photo-electrochemical reactions in dark-adapted intact plant leaves is presented. A descriptive algorithm has been derived from analyses of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence and P700 oxidation kinetics upon excitation with

  13. Analysing and controlling the tax evasion dynamics via majority-vote model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, F W S, E-mail: fwslima@gmail.co, E-mail: wel@ufpi.edu.b [Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal do PiauI, 64049-550, Teresina - PI (Brazil)

    2010-09-01

    Within the context of agent-based Monte-Carlo simulations, we study the well-known majority-vote model (MVM) with noise applied to tax evasion on simple square lattices, Voronoi-Delaunay random lattices, Barabasi-Albert networks, and Erdoes-Renyi random graphs. In the order to analyse and to control the fluctuations for tax evasion in the economics model proposed by Zaklan, MVM is applied in the neighborhood of the noise critical q{sub c} to evolve the Zaklan model. The Zaklan model had been studied recently using the equilibrium Ising model. Here we show that the Zaklan model is robust because this can be studied using equilibrium dynamics of Ising model also through the nonequilibrium MVM and on various topologies cited above giving the same behavior regardless of dynamic or topology used here.

  14. Analysing and controlling the tax evasion dynamics via majority-vote model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima, F W S

    2010-01-01

    Within the context of agent-based Monte-Carlo simulations, we study the well-known majority-vote model (MVM) with noise applied to tax evasion on simple square lattices, Voronoi-Delaunay random lattices, Barabasi-Albert networks, and Erdoes-Renyi random graphs. In the order to analyse and to control the fluctuations for tax evasion in the economics model proposed by Zaklan, MVM is applied in the neighborhood of the noise critical q c to evolve the Zaklan model. The Zaklan model had been studied recently using the equilibrium Ising model. Here we show that the Zaklan model is robust because this can be studied using equilibrium dynamics of Ising model also through the nonequilibrium MVM and on various topologies cited above giving the same behavior regardless of dynamic or topology used here.

  15. Nurses' intention to leave: critically analyse the theory of reasoned action and organizational commitment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Shwu-Ru

    2009-01-01

    To systematically analyse the Organizational Commitment model and Theory of Reasoned Action and determine concepts that can better explain nurses' intention to leave their job. The Organizational Commitment model and Theory of Reasoned Action have been proposed and applied to understand intention to leave and turnover behaviour, which are major contributors to nursing shortage. However, the appropriateness of applying these two models in nursing was not analysed. Three main criteria of a useful model were used for the analysis: consistency in the use of concepts, testability and predictability. Both theories use concepts consistently. Concepts in the Theory of Reasoned Action are defined broadly whereas they are operationally defined in the Organizational Commitment model. Predictability of the Theory of Reasoned Action is questionable whereas the Organizational Commitment model can be applied to predict intention to leave. A model was proposed based on this analysis. Organizational commitment, intention to leave, work experiences, job characteristics and personal characteristics can be concepts for predicting nurses' intention to leave. Nursing managers may consider nurses' personal characteristics and experiences to increase their organizational commitment and enhance their intention to stay. Empirical studies are needed to test and cross-validate the re-synthesized model for nurses' intention to leave their job.

  16. A model finite-element to analyse the mechanical behavior of a PWR fuel rod

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeao, A.C.N.R.; Tanajura, C.A.S.

    1988-01-01

    A model to analyse the mechanical behavior of a PWR fuel rod is presented. We drew our attention to the phenomenon of pellet-pellet and pellet-cladding contact by taking advantage of an elastic model which include the effects of thermal gradients, cladding internal and external pressures, swelling and initial relocation. The problem of contact gives rise ro a variational formulation which employs Lagrangian multipliers. An iterative scheme is constructed and the finite element method is applied to obtain the numerical solution. Some results and comments are presented to examine the performance of the model. (author) [pt

  17. Analysing, Interpreting, and Testing the Invariance of the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareau, Alexandre

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Although in recent years researchers have begun to utilize dyadic data analyses such as the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM, certain limitations to the applicability of these models still exist. Given the complexity of APIMs, most researchers will often use observed scores to estimate the model's parameters, which can significantly limit and underestimate statistical results. The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of conducting a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA of equivalent constructs between dyad members (i.e. measurement equivalence/invariance; ME/I. Different steps for merging CFA and APIM procedures will be detailed in order to shed light on new and integrative methods.

  18. Tests and analyses of 1/4-scale upgraded nine-bay reinforced concrete basement models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodson, S.C.

    1983-01-01

    Two nine-bay prototype structures, a flat plate and two-way slab with beams, were designed in accordance with the 1977 ACI code. A 1/4-scale model of each prototype was constructed, upgraded with timber posts, and statically tested. The development of the timber posts placement scheme was based upon yield-line analyses, punching shear evaluation, and moment-thrust interaction diagrams of the concrete slab sections. The flat plate model and the slab with beams model withstood approximate overpressures of 80 and 40 psi, respectively, indicating that required hardness may be achieved through simple upgrading techniques

  19. Demographic origins of skewed operational and adult sex ratios: perturbation analyses of two-sex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veran, Sophie; Beissinger, Steven R

    2009-02-01

    Skewed sex ratios - operational (OSR) and Adult (ASR) - arise from sexual differences in reproductive behaviours and adult survival rates due to the cost of reproduction. However, skewed sex-ratio at birth, sex-biased dispersal and immigration, and sexual differences in juvenile mortality may also contribute. We present a framework to decompose the roles of demographic traits on sex ratios using perturbation analyses of two-sex matrix population models. Metrics of sensitivity are derived from analyses of sensitivity, elasticity, life-table response experiments and life stage simulation analyses, and applied to the stable stage distribution instead of lambda. We use these approaches to examine causes of male-biased sex ratios in two populations of green-rumped parrotlets (Forpus passerinus) in Venezuela. Female local juvenile survival contributed the most to the unbalanced OSR and ASR due to a female-biased dispersal rate, suggesting sexual differences in philopatry can influence sex ratios more strongly than the cost of reproduction.

  20. Beta-Poisson model for single-cell RNA-seq data analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Trung Nghia; Wills, Quin F; Kalari, Krishna R; Niu, Nifang; Wang, Liewei; Rantalainen, Mattias; Pawitan, Yudi

    2016-07-15

    Single-cell RNA-sequencing technology allows detection of gene expression at the single-cell level. One typical feature of the data is a bimodality in the cellular distribution even for highly expressed genes, primarily caused by a proportion of non-expressing cells. The standard and the over-dispersed gamma-Poisson models that are commonly used in bulk-cell RNA-sequencing are not able to capture this property. We introduce a beta-Poisson mixture model that can capture the bimodality of the single-cell gene expression distribution. We further integrate the model into the generalized linear model framework in order to perform differential expression analyses. The whole analytical procedure is called BPSC. The results from several real single-cell RNA-seq datasets indicate that ∼90% of the transcripts are well characterized by the beta-Poisson model; the model-fit from BPSC is better than the fit of the standard gamma-Poisson model in > 80% of the transcripts. Moreover, in differential expression analyses of simulated and real datasets, BPSC performs well against edgeR, a conventional method widely used in bulk-cell RNA-sequencing data, and against scde and MAST, two recent methods specifically designed for single-cell RNA-seq data. An R package BPSC for model fitting and differential expression analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data is available under GPL-3 license at https://github.com/nghiavtr/BPSC CONTACT: yudi.pawitan@ki.se or mattias.rantalainen@ki.se Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Quantifying and Analysing Neighbourhood Characteristics Supporting Urban Land-Use Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Sten

    2009-01-01

    Land-use modelling and spatial scenarios have gained increased attention as a means to meet the challenge of reducing uncertainty in the spatial planning and decision-making. Several organisations have developed software for land-use modelling. Many of the recent modelling efforts incorporate...... cellular automata (CA) to accomplish spatially explicit land-use change modelling. Spatial interaction between neighbour land-uses is an important component in urban cellular automata. Nevertheless, this component is calibrated through trial-and-error estimation. The aim of the current research project has...... been to quantify and analyse land-use neighbourhood characteristics and impart useful information for cell based land-use modelling. The results of our research is a major step forward, because we have estimated rules for neighbourhood interaction from really observed land-use changes at a yearly basis...

  2. Evaluation of Uncertainties in hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analyses. Model calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijiri, Yuji; Ono, Makoto; Sugihara, Yutaka; Shimo, Michito; Yamamoto, Hajime; Fumimura, Kenichi

    2003-03-01

    This study involves evaluation of uncertainty in hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analysis. Three-dimensional groundwater flow in Shobasama site in Tono was analyzed using two continuum models and one discontinuous model. The domain of this study covered area of four kilometers in east-west direction and six kilometers in north-south direction. Moreover, for the purpose of evaluating how uncertainties included in modeling of hydrogeological structure and results of groundwater simulation decreased with progress of investigation research, updating and calibration of the models about several modeling techniques of hydrogeological structure and groundwater flow analysis techniques were carried out, based on the information and knowledge which were newly acquired. The acquired knowledge is as follows. As a result of setting parameters and structures in renewal of the models following to the circumstances by last year, there is no big difference to handling between modeling methods. The model calibration is performed by the method of matching numerical simulation with observation, about the pressure response caused by opening and closing of a packer in MIU-2 borehole. Each analysis technique attains reducing of residual sum of squares of observations and results of numerical simulation by adjusting hydrogeological parameters. However, each model adjusts different parameters as water conductivity, effective porosity, specific storage, and anisotropy. When calibrating models, sometimes it is impossible to explain the phenomena only by adjusting parameters. In such case, another investigation may be required to clarify details of hydrogeological structure more. As a result of comparing research from beginning to this year, the following conclusions are obtained about investigation. (1) The transient hydraulic data are effective means in reducing the uncertainty of hydrogeological structure. (2) Effective porosity for calculating pore water velocity of

  3. Modular 3-D solid finite element model for fatigue analyses of a PWR coolant system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrido, Oriol Costa; Cizelj, Leon; Simonovski, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A 3-D model of a reactor coolant system for fatigue usage assessment. ► The performed simulations are a heat transfer and stress analyses. ► The main results are the expected ranges of fatigue loadings. - Abstract: The extension of operational licenses of second generation pressurized water reactor (PWR) nuclear power plants depends to a large extent on the analyses of fatigue usage of the reactor coolant pressure boundary. The reliable estimation of the fatigue usage requires detailed thermal and stress analyses of the affected components. Analyses, based upon the in-service transient loads should be compared to the loads analyzed at the design stage. The thermal and stress transients can be efficiently analyzed using the finite element method. This requires that a 3-D solid model of a given system is discretized with finite elements (FE). The FE mesh density is crucial for both the accuracy and the cost of the analysis. The main goal of the paper is to propose a set of computational tools which assist a user in a deployment of modular spatial FE model of main components of a typical reactor coolant system, e.g., pipes, pressure vessels and pumps. The modularity ensures that the components can be analyzed individually or in a system. Also, individual components can be meshed with different mesh densities, as required by the specifics of the particular transient studied. For optimal accuracy, all components are meshed with hexahedral elements with quadratic interpolation. The performance of the model is demonstrated with simulations performed with a complete two-loop PWR coolant system (RCS). Heat transfer analysis and stress analysis for a complete loading and unloading cycle of the RCS are performed. The main results include expected ranges of fatigue loading for the pipe lines and coolant pump components under the given conditions.

  4. Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevougian, S. David; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Gardner, William Payton; Hammond, Glenn Edward; Mariner, Paul

    2014-09-01

    directly, rather than through simplified abstractions. It also a llows for complex representations of the source term, e.g., the explicit representation of many individual waste packages (i.e., meter - scale detail of an entire waste emplacement drift). This report fulfills the Generic Disposal System Analysis Work Packa ge Level 3 Milestone - Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts (M 3 FT - 1 4 SN08080 3 2 ).

  5. Generic uncertainty model for DETRA for environmental consequence analyses. Application and sample outputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M.

    1998-10-01

    Computer model DETRA applies a dynamic compartment modelling approach. The compartment structure of each considered application can be tailored individually. This flexible modelling method makes it possible that the transfer of radionuclides can be considered in various cases: aquatic environment and related food chains, terrestrial environment, food chains in general and food stuffs, body burden analyses of humans, etc. In the former study on this subject, modernization of the user interface of DETRA code was carried out. This new interface works in Windows environment and the usability of the code has been improved. The objective of this study has been to further develop and diversify the user interface so that also probabilistic uncertainty analyses can be performed by DETRA. The most common probability distributions are available: uniform, truncated Gaussian and triangular. The corresponding logarithmic distributions are also available. All input data related to a considered case can be varied, although this option is seldomly needed. The calculated output values can be selected as monitored values at certain simulation time points defined by the user. The results of a sensitivity run are immediately available after simulation as graphical presentations. These outcomes are distributions generated for varied parameters, density functions of monitored parameters and complementary cumulative density functions (CCDF). An application considered in connection with this work was the estimation of contamination of milk caused by radioactive deposition of Cs (10 kBq(Cs-137)/m 2 ). The multi-sequence calculation model applied consisted of a pasture modelling part and a dormant season modelling part. These two sequences were linked periodically simulating the realistic practice of care taking of domestic animals in Finland. The most important parameters were varied in this exercise. The performed diversifying of the user interface of DETRA code seems to provide an easily

  6. A response-modeling alternative to surrogate models for support in computational analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, Brian

    2006-01-01

    Often, the objectives in a computational analysis involve characterization of system performance based on some function of the computed response. In general, this characterization includes (at least) an estimate or prediction for some performance measure and an estimate of the associated uncertainty. Surrogate models can be used to approximate the response in regions where simulations were not performed. For most surrogate modeling approaches, however (1) estimates are based on smoothing of available data and (2) uncertainty in the response is specified in a point-wise (in the input space) fashion. These aspects of the surrogate model construction might limit their capabilities. One alternative is to construct a probability measure, G(r), for the computer response, r, based on available data. This 'response-modeling' approach will permit probability estimation for an arbitrary event, E(r), based on the computer response. In this general setting, event probabilities can be computed: prob(E)=∫ r I(E(r))dG(r) where I is the indicator function. Furthermore, one can use G(r) to calculate an induced distribution on a performance measure, pm. For prediction problems where the performance measure is a scalar, its distribution F pm is determined by: F pm (z)=∫ r I(pm(r)≤z)dG(r). We introduce response models for scalar computer output and then generalize the approach to more complicated responses that utilize multiple response models

  7. BWR Mark III containment analyses using a GOTHIC 8.0 3D model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, Gonzalo; Serrano, César; Lopez-Alonso, Emma; Molina, M del Carmen; Calvo, Daniel; García, Javier; Queral, César; Zuriaga, J. Vicente; González, Montserrat

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The development of a 3D GOTHIC code model of BWR Mark-III containment is described. • Suppression pool modelling based on the POOLEX STB-20 and STB-16 experimental tests. • LOCA and SBO transient simulated to verify the behaviour of the 3D GOTHIC model. • Comparison between the 3D GOTHIC model and MAAP4.07 model is conducted. • Accurate reproduction of pre severe accident conditions with the 3D GOTHIC model. - Abstract: The purpose of this study is to establish a detailed three-dimensional model of Cofrentes NPP BWR/6 Mark III containment building using the containment code GOTHIC 8.0. This paper presents the model construction, the phenomenology tests conducted and the selected transient for the model evaluation. In order to study the proper settings for the model in the suppression pool, two experiments conducted with the experimental installation POOLEX have been simulated, allowing to obtain a proper behaviour of the model under different suppression pool phenomenology. In the transient analyses, a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) and a Station Blackout (SBO) transient have been performed. The main results of the simulations of those transients were qualitative compared with the results obtained from simulations with MAAP 4.07 Cofrentes NPP model, used by the plant for simulating severe accidents. From this comparison, a verification of the model in terms of pressurization, asymmetric discharges and high pressure release were obtained. The completeness of this model has proved to adequately simulate the thermal hydraulic phenomena which occur in the containment during accidental sequences

  8. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  9. Risk Factor Analyses for the Return of Spontaneous Circulation in the Asphyxiation Cardiac Arrest Porcine Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai-Jun Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Animal models of asphyxiation cardiac arrest (ACA are frequently used in basic research to mirror the clinical course of cardiac arrest (CA. The rates of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in ACA animal models are lower than those from studies that have utilized ventricular fibrillation (VF animal models. The purpose of this study was to characterize the factors associated with the ROSC in the ACA porcine model. Methods: Forty-eight healthy miniature pigs underwent endotracheal tube clamping to induce CA. Once induced, CA was maintained untreated for a period of 8 min. Two minutes following the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR, defibrillation was attempted until ROSC was achieved or the animal died. To assess the factors associated with ROSC in this CA model, logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze gender, the time of preparation, the amplitude spectrum area (AMSA from the beginning of CPR and the pH at the beginning of CPR. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of AMSA for ROSC. Results: ROSC was only 52.1% successful in this ACA porcine model. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that ROSC significantly depended on the time of preparation, AMSA at the beginning of CPR and pH at the beginning of CPR. The area under the ROC curve in for AMSA at the beginning of CPR was 0.878 successful in predicting ROSC (95% confidence intervals: 0.773∼0.983, and the optimum cut-off value was 15.62 (specificity 95.7% and sensitivity 80.0%. Conclusions: The time of preparation, AMSA and the pH at the beginning of CPR were associated with ROSC in this ACA porcine model. AMSA also predicted the likelihood of ROSC in this ACA animal model.

  10. Growth Modeling with Non-Ignorable Dropout: Alternative Analyses of the STAR*D Antidepressant Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthén, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir; Hunter, Aimee; Leuchter, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses a general latent variable framework to study a series of models for non-ignorable missingness due to dropout. Non-ignorable missing data modeling acknowledges that missingness may depend on not only covariates and observed outcomes at previous time points as with the standard missing at random (MAR) assumption, but also on latent variables such as values that would have been observed (missing outcomes), developmental trends (growth factors), and qualitatively different types of development (latent trajectory classes). These alternative predictors of missing data can be explored in a general latent variable framework using the Mplus program. A flexible new model uses an extended pattern-mixture approach where missingness is a function of latent dropout classes in combination with growth mixture modeling using latent trajectory classes. A new selection model allows not only an influence of the outcomes on missingness, but allows this influence to vary across latent trajectory classes. Recommendations are given for choosing models. The missing data models are applied to longitudinal data from STAR*D, the largest antidepressant clinical trial in the U.S. to date. Despite the importance of this trial, STAR*D growth model analyses using non-ignorable missing data techniques have not been explored until now. The STAR*D data are shown to feature distinct trajectory classes, including a low class corresponding to substantial improvement in depression, a minority class with a U-shaped curve corresponding to transient improvement, and a high class corresponding to no improvement. The analyses provide a new way to assess drug efficiency in the presence of dropout. PMID:21381817

  11. NUMERICAL MODELLING AS NON-DESTRUCTIVE METHOD FOR THE ANALYSES AND DIAGNOSIS OF STONE STRUCTURES: MODELS AND POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Štambuk-Cvitanović

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Assuming the necessity of analysis, diagnosis and preservation of existing valuable stone masonry structures and ancient monuments in today European urban cores, numerical modelling become an efficient tool for the structural behaviour investigation. It should be supported by experimentally found input data and taken as a part of general combined approach, particularly non-destructive techniques on the structure/model within it. For the structures or their detail which may require more complex analyses three numerical models based upon finite elements technique are suggested: (1 standard linear model; (2 linear model with contact (interface elements; and (3 non-linear elasto-plastic and orthotropic model. The applicability of these models depend upon the accuracy of the approach or type of the problem, and will be presented on some characteristic samples.

  12. Models and analyses for inertial-confinement fusion-reactor studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohachevsky, I.O.

    1981-05-01

    This report describes models and analyses devised at Los Alamos National Laboratory to determine the technical characteristics of different inertial confinement fusion (ICF) reactor elements required for component integration into a functional unit. We emphasize the generic properties of the different elements rather than specific designs. The topics discussed are general ICF reactor design considerations; reactor cavity phenomena, including the restoration of interpulse ambient conditions; first-wall temperature increases and material losses; reactor neutronics and hydrodynamic blanket response to neutron energy deposition; and analyses of loads and stresses in the reactor vessel walls, including remarks about the generation and propagation of very short wavelength stress waves. A discussion of analytic approaches useful in integrations and optimizations of ICF reactor systems concludes the report

  13. Quantitative Model for Economic Analyses of Information Security Investment in an Enterprise Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojanc Rok

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a mathematical model for the optimal security-technology investment evaluation and decision-making processes based on the quantitative analysis of security risks and digital asset assessments in an enterprise. The model makes use of the quantitative analysis of different security measures that counteract individual risks by identifying the information system processes in an enterprise and the potential threats. The model comprises the target security levels for all identified business processes and the probability of a security accident together with the possible loss the enterprise may suffer. The selection of security technology is based on the efficiency of selected security measures. Economic metrics are applied for the efficiency assessment and comparative analysis of different protection technologies. Unlike the existing models for evaluation of the security investment, the proposed model allows direct comparison and quantitative assessment of different security measures. The model allows deep analyses and computations providing quantitative assessments of different options for investments, which translate into recommendations facilitating the selection of the best solution and the decision-making thereof. The model was tested using empirical examples with data from real business environment.

  14. A modeling approach to compare ΣPCB concentrations between congener-specific analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Polly P.; Mills, Marc A.; Kraus, Johanna M.; Walters, David M.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in analytical methods over time pose problems for assessing long-term trends in environmental contamination by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Congener-specific analyses vary widely in the number and identity of the 209 distinct PCB chemical configurations (congeners) that are quantified, leading to inconsistencies among summed PCB concentrations (ΣPCB) reported by different studies. Here we present a modeling approach using linear regression to compare ΣPCB concentrations derived from different congener-specific analyses measuring different co-eluting groups. The approach can be used to develop a specific conversion model between any two sets of congener-specific analytical data from similar samples (similar matrix and geographic origin). We demonstrate the method by developing a conversion model for an example data set that includes data from two different analytical methods, a low resolution method quantifying 119 congeners and a high resolution method quantifying all 209 congeners. We used the model to show that the 119-congener set captured most (93%) of the total PCB concentration (i.e., Σ209PCB) in sediment and biological samples. ΣPCB concentrations estimated using the model closely matched measured values (mean relative percent difference = 9.6). General applications of the modeling approach include (a) generating comparable ΣPCB concentrations for samples that were analyzed for different congener sets; and (b) estimating the proportional contribution of different congener sets to ΣPCB. This approach may be especially valuable for enabling comparison of long-term remediation monitoring results even as analytical methods change over time. 

  15. Sampling and sensitivity analyses tools (SaSAT for computational modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson David P

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract SaSAT (Sampling and Sensitivity Analysis Tools is a user-friendly software package for applying uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to mathematical and computational models of arbitrary complexity and context. The toolbox is built in Matlab®, a numerical mathematical software package, and utilises algorithms contained in the Matlab® Statistics Toolbox. However, Matlab® is not required to use SaSAT as the software package is provided as an executable file with all the necessary supplementary files. The SaSAT package is also designed to work seamlessly with Microsoft Excel but no functionality is forfeited if that software is not available. A comprehensive suite of tools is provided to enable the following tasks to be easily performed: efficient and equitable sampling of parameter space by various methodologies; calculation of correlation coefficients; regression analysis; factor prioritisation; and graphical output of results, including response surfaces, tornado plots, and scatterplots. Use of SaSAT is exemplified by application to a simple epidemic model. To our knowledge, a number of the methods available in SaSAT for performing sensitivity analyses have not previously been used in epidemiological modelling and their usefulness in this context is demonstrated.

  16. A chip-level modeling approach for rail span collapse and survivability analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marvis, D.G.; Alexander, D.R.; Dinger, G.L.

    1989-01-01

    A general semiautomated analysis technique has been developed for analyzing rail span collapse and survivability of VLSI microcircuits in high ionizing dose rate radiation environments. Hierarchical macrocell modeling permits analyses at the chip level and interactive graphical postprocessing provides a rapid visualization of voltage, current and power distributions over an entire VLSIC. The technique is demonstrated for a 16k C MOS/SOI SRAM and a CMOS/SOS 8-bit multiplier. The authors also present an efficient method to treat memory arrays as well as a three-dimensional integration technique to compute sapphire photoconduction from the design layout

  17. Analyses and testing of model prestressed concrete reactor vessels with built-in planes of weakness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, P.; Paton, A.A.; Fleischer, C.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the design, construction, analyses and testing of two small scale, single cavity prestressed concrete reactor vessel models, one without planes of weakness and one with planes of weakness immediately behind the cavity liner. This work was carried out to extend a previous study which had suggested the likely feasibility of constructing regions of prestressed concrete reactor vessels and biological shields, which become activated, using easily removable blocks, separated by a suitable membrane. The paper describes the results obtained and concludes that the planes of weakness concept could offer a means of facilitating the dismantling of activated regions of prestressed concrete reactor vessels, biological shields and similar types of structure. (author)

  18. Integrated tokamak modelling with the fast-ion Fokker–Planck solver adapted for transient analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toma, M; Hamamatsu, K; Hayashi, N; Honda, M; Ide, S

    2015-01-01

    Integrated tokamak modelling that enables the simulation of an entire discharge period is indispensable for designing advanced tokamak plasmas. For this purpose, we extend the integrated code TOPICS to make it more suitable for transient analyses in the fast-ion part. The fast-ion Fokker–Planck solver is integrated into TOPICS at the same level as the bulk transport solver so that the time evolutions of the fast ion and the bulk plasma are consistent with each other as well as with the equilibrium magnetic field. The fast-ion solver simultaneously handles neutral beam-injected ions and alpha particles. Parallelisation of the fast-ion solver in addition to its computational lightness owing to a dimensional reduction in the phase space enables transient analyses for long periods in the order of tens of seconds. The fast-ion Fokker–Planck calculation is compared and confirmed to be in good agreement with an orbit following a Monte Carlo calculation. The integrated code is applied to ramp-up simulations for JT-60SA and ITER to confirm its capability and effectiveness in transient analyses. In the integrated simulations, the coupled evolution of the fast ions, plasma profiles, and equilibrium magnetic fields are presented. In addition, the electric acceleration effect on fast ions is shown and discussed. (paper)

  19. Analysing the Effects of Flood-Resilience Technologies in Urban Areas Using a Synthetic Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinhard Schinke

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood protection systems with their spatial effects play an important role in managing and reducing flood risks. The planning and decision process as well as the technical implementation are well organized and often exercised. However, building-related flood-resilience technologies (FReT are often neglected due to the absence of suitable approaches to analyse and to integrate such measures in large-scale flood damage mitigation concepts. Against this backdrop, a synthetic model-approach was extended by few complementary methodical steps in order to calculate flood damage to buildings considering the effects of building-related FReT and to analyse the area-related reduction of flood risks by geo-information systems (GIS with high spatial resolution. It includes a civil engineering based investigation of characteristic properties with its building construction including a selection and combination of appropriate FReT as a basis for derivation of synthetic depth-damage functions. Depending on the real exposition and the implementation level of FReT, the functions can be used and allocated in spatial damage and risk analyses. The application of the extended approach is shown at a case study in Valencia (Spain. In this way, the overall research findings improve the integration of FReT in flood risk management. They provide also some useful information for advising of individuals at risk supporting the selection and implementation of FReT.

  20. Structural identifiability analyses of candidate models for in vitro Pitavastatin hepatic uptake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Thomas R B; Chappell, Michael J; Yates, James W T; Evans, Neil D

    2014-05-01

    In this paper a review of the application of four different techniques (a version of the similarity transformation approach for autonomous uncontrolled systems, a non-differential input/output observable normal form approach, the characteristic set differential algebra and a recent algebraic input/output relationship approach) to determine the structural identifiability of certain in vitro nonlinear pharmacokinetic models is provided. The Organic Anion Transporting Polypeptide (OATP) substrate, Pitavastatin, is used as a probe on freshly isolated animal and human hepatocytes. Candidate pharmacokinetic non-linear compartmental models have been derived to characterise the uptake process of Pitavastatin. As a prerequisite to parameter estimation, structural identifiability analyses are performed to establish that all unknown parameters can be identified from the experimental observations available. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  1. Reading Ability Development from Kindergarten to Junior Secondary: Latent Transition Analyses with Growth Mixture Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study examined the reading ability development of children in the large scale Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 data; Tourangeau, Nord, Lê, Pollack, & Atkins-Burnett, 2006 under the dynamic systems. To depict children's growth pattern, we extended the measurement part of latent transition analysis to the growth mixture model and found that the new model fitted the data well. Results also revealed that most of the children stayed in the same ability group with few cross-level changes in their classes. After adding the environmental factors as predictors, analyses showed that children receiving higher teachers' ratings, with higher socioeconomic status, and of above average poverty status, would have higher probability to transit into the higher ability group.

  2. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wetterslev, Jørn; Thorlund, Kristian; Brok, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    an intervention effect suggested by trials with low-risk of bias. METHODS: Information size calculations need to consider the total model variance in a meta-analysis to control type I and type II errors. Here, we derive an adjusting factor for the required information size under any random-effects model meta......-analysis. RESULTS: We devise a measure of diversity (D2) in a meta-analysis, which is the relative variance reduction when the meta-analysis model is changed from a random-effects into a fixed-effect model. D2 is the percentage that the between-trial variability constitutes of the sum of the between...... and interpreted using several simulations and clinical examples. In addition we show mathematically that diversity is equal to or greater than inconsistency, that is D2 >or= I2, for all meta-analyses. CONCLUSION: We conclude that D2 seems a better alternative than I2 to consider model variation in any random...

  3. What is needed to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections: The contribution of model-based analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Katie; Ciaranello, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of Review Computer simulation models can identify key clinical, operational, and economic interventions that will be needed to achieve the elimination of new pediatric HIV infections. In this review, we summarize recent findings from model-based analyses of strategies for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT). Recent Findings In order to achieve elimination of MTCT (eMTCT), model-based studies suggest that scale-up of services will be needed in several domains: uptake of services and retention in care (the PMTCT “cascade”), interventions to prevent HIV infections in women and reduce unintended pregnancies (the “four-pronged approach”), efforts to support medication adherence through long periods of pregnancy and breastfeeding, and strategies to make breastfeeding safer and/or shorter. Models also project the economic resources that will be needed to achieve these goals in the most efficient ways to allocate limited resources for eMTCT. Results suggest that currently recommended PMTCT regimens (WHO Option A, Option B, and Option B+) will be cost-effective in most settings. Summary Model-based results can guide future implementation science, by highlighting areas in which additional data are needed to make informed decisions and by outlining critical interventions that will be necessary in order to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections. PMID:23743788

  4. Control designs and stability analyses for Helly’s car-following model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas-Jaimes, Oscar A.; Quezada-Téllez, Luis A.; Fernández-Anaya, Guillermo

    Car-following is an approach to understand traffic behavior restricted to pairs of cars, identifying a “leader” moving in front of a “follower”, which at the same time, it is assumed that it does not surpass to the first one. From the first attempts to formulate the way in which individual cars are affected in a road through these models, linear differential equations were suggested by author like Pipes or Helly. These expressions represent such phenomena quite well, even though they have been overcome by other more recent and accurate models. However, in this paper, we show that those early formulations have some properties that are not fully reported, presenting the different ways in which they can be expressed, and analyzing them in their stability behaviors. Pipes’ model can be extended to what it is known as Helly’s model, which is viewed as a more precise model to emulate this microscopic approach to traffic. Once established some convenient forms of expression, two control designs are suggested herein. These regulation schemes are also complemented with their respective stability analyses, which reflect some important properties with implications in real driving. It is significant that these linear designs can be very easy to understand and to implement, including those important features related to safety and comfort.

  5. Development of steady-state model for MSPT and detailed analyses of receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuasa, Minoru; Sonoda, Masanori; Hino, Koichi

    2016-05-01

    Molten salt parabolic trough system (MSPT) uses molten salt as heat transfer fluid (HTF) instead of synthetic oil. The demonstration plant of MSPT was constructed by Chiyoda Corporation and Archimede Solar Energy in Italy in 2013. Chiyoda Corporation developed a steady-state model for predicting the theoretical behavior of the demonstration plant. The model was designed to calculate the concentrated solar power and heat loss using ray tracing of incident solar light and finite element modeling of thermal energy transferred into the medium. This report describes the verification of the model using test data on the demonstration plant, detailed analyses on the relation between flow rate and temperature difference on the metal tube of receiver and the effect of defocus angle on concentrated power rate, for solar collector assembly (SCA) development. The model is accurate to an extent of 2.0% as systematic error and 4.2% as random error. The relationships between flow rate and temperature difference on metal tube and the effect of defocus angle on concentrated power rate are shown.

  6. A STRONGLY COUPLED REACTOR CORE ISOLATION COOLING SYSTEM MODEL FOR EXTENDED STATION BLACK-OUT ANALYSES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Haihua [Idaho National Laboratory; Zhang, Hongbin [Idaho National Laboratory; Zou, Ling [Idaho National Laboratory; Martineau, Richard Charles [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-03-01

    The reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system in a boiling water reactor (BWR) provides makeup cooling water to the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) when the main steam lines are isolated and the normal supply of water to the reactor vessel is lost. The RCIC system operates independently of AC power, service air, or external cooling water systems. The only required external energy source is from the battery to maintain the logic circuits to control the opening and/or closure of valves in the RCIC systems in order to control the RPV water level by shutting down the RCIC pump to avoid overfilling the RPV and flooding the steam line to the RCIC turbine. It is generally considered in almost all the existing station black-out accidents (SBO) analyses that loss of the DC power would result in overfilling the steam line and allowing liquid water to flow into the RCIC turbine, where it is assumed that the turbine would then be disabled. This behavior, however, was not observed in the Fukushima Daiichi accidents, where the Unit 2 RCIC functioned without DC power for nearly three days. Therefore, more detailed mechanistic models for RCIC system components are needed to understand the extended SBO for BWRs. As part of the effort to develop the next generation reactor system safety analysis code RELAP-7, we have developed a strongly coupled RCIC system model, which consists of a turbine model, a pump model, a check valve model, a wet well model, and their coupling models. Unlike the traditional SBO simulations where mass flow rates are typically given in the input file through time dependent functions, the real mass flow rates through the turbine and the pump loops in our model are dynamically calculated according to conservation laws and turbine/pump operation curves. A simplified SBO demonstration RELAP-7 model with this RCIC model has been successfully developed. The demonstration model includes the major components for the primary system of a BWR, as well as the safety

  7. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tappen, J. J.; Wasiolek, M. A.; Wu, D. W.; Schmitt, J. F.; Smith, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  8. Rockslide and Impulse Wave Modelling in the Vajont Reservoir by DEM-CFD Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Utili, S.; Crosta, G. B.

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the generation of hydrodynamic water waves due to rockslides plunging into a water reservoir. Quasi-3D DEM analyses in plane strain by a coupled DEM-CFD code are adopted to simulate the rockslide from its onset to the impact with the still water and the subsequent generation of the wave. The employed numerical tools and upscaling of hydraulic properties allow predicting a physical response in broad agreement with the observations notwithstanding the assumptions and characteristics of the adopted methods. The results obtained by the DEM-CFD coupled approach are compared to those published in the literature and those presented by Crosta et al. (Landslide spreading, impulse waves and modelling of the Vajont rockslide. Rock mechanics, 2014) in a companion paper obtained through an ALE-FEM method. Analyses performed along two cross sections are representative of the limit conditions of the eastern and western slope sectors. The max rockslide average velocity and the water wave velocity reach ca. 22 and 20 m/s, respectively. The maximum computed run up amounts to ca. 120 and 170 m for the eastern and western lobe cross sections, respectively. These values are reasonably similar to those recorded during the event (i.e. ca. 130 and 190 m, respectively). Therefore, the overall study lays out a possible DEM-CFD framework for the modelling of the generation of the hydrodynamic wave due to the impact of a rapid moving rockslide or rock-debris avalanche.

  9. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeff Tappen; M.A. Wasiolek; D.W. Wu; J.F. Schmitt

    2001-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  10. Challenges of Analysing Gene-Environment Interactions in Mouse Models of Schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter L. Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The modelling of neuropsychiatric disease using the mouse has provided a wealth of information regarding the relationship between specific genetic lesions and behavioural endophenotypes. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that synergy between genetic and nongenetic factors is a key feature of these disorders that must also be taken into account. With the inherent limitations of retrospective human studies, experiments in mice have begun to tackle this complex association, combining well-established behavioural paradigms and quantitative neuropathology with a range of environmental insults. The conclusions from this work have been varied, due in part to a lack of standardised methodology, although most have illustrated that phenotypes related to disorders such as schizophrenia are consistently modified. Far fewer studies, however, have attempted to generate a “two-hit” model, whereby the consequences of a pathogenic mutation are analysed in combination with environmental manipulation such as prenatal stress. This significant, yet relatively new, approach is beginning to produce valuable new models of neuropsychiatric disease. Focussing on prenatal and perinatal stress models of schizophrenia, this review discusses the current progress in this field, and highlights important issues regarding the interpretation and comparative analysis of such complex behavioural data.

  11. Correlation of Klebsiella pneumoniae comparative genetic analyses with virulence profiles in a murine respiratory disease model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramy A Fodah

    Full Text Available Klebsiella pneumoniae is a bacterial pathogen of worldwide importance and a significant contributor to multiple disease presentations associated with both nosocomial and community acquired disease. ATCC 43816 is a well-studied K. pneumoniae strain which is capable of causing an acute respiratory disease in surrogate animal models. In this study, we performed sequencing of the ATCC 43816 genome to support future efforts characterizing genetic elements required for disease. Furthermore, we performed comparative genetic analyses to the previously sequenced genomes from NTUH-K2044 and MGH 78578 to gain an understanding of the conservation of known virulence determinants amongst the three strains. We found that ATCC 43816 and NTUH-K2044 both possess the known virulence determinant for yersiniabactin, as well as a Type 4 secretion system (T4SS, CRISPR system, and an acetonin catabolism locus, all absent from MGH 78578. While both NTUH-K2044 and MGH 78578 are clinical isolates, little is known about the disease potential of these strains in cell culture and animal models. Thus, we also performed functional analyses in the murine macrophage cell lines RAW264.7 and J774A.1 and found that MGH 78578 (K52 serotype was internalized at higher levels than ATCC 43816 (K2 and NTUH-K2044 (K1, consistent with previous characterization of the antiphagocytic properties of K1 and K2 serotype capsules. We also examined the three K. pneumoniae strains in a novel BALB/c respiratory disease model and found that ATCC 43816 and NTUH-K2044 are highly virulent (LD50<100 CFU while MGH 78578 is relatively avirulent.

  12. Genetic analyses of partial egg production in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karami, K; Zerehdaran, S; Barzanooni, B; Lotfi, E

    2017-12-01

    1. The aim of the present study was to estimate genetic parameters for average egg weight (EW) and egg number (EN) at different ages in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression (MTRR) models. 2. A total of 8534 records from 900 quail, hatched between 2014 and 2015, were used in the study. Average weekly egg weights and egg numbers were measured from second until sixth week of egg production. 3. Nine random regression models were compared to identify the best order of the Legendre polynomials (LP). The most optimal model was identified by the Bayesian Information Criterion. A model with second order of LP for fixed effects, second order of LP for additive genetic effects and third order of LP for permanent environmental effects (MTRR23) was found to be the best. 4. According to the MTRR23 model, direct heritability for EW increased from 0.26 in the second week to 0.53 in the sixth week of egg production, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.48 to 0.1. Direct heritability for EN was low, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.57 to 0.15 during the production period. 5. For each trait, estimated genetic correlations among weeks of egg production were high (from 0.85 to 0.98). Genetic correlations between EW and EN were low and negative for the first two weeks, but they were low and positive for the rest of the egg production period. 6. In conclusion, random regression models can be used effectively for analysing egg production traits in Japanese quail. Response to selection for increased egg weight would be higher at older ages because of its higher heritability and such a breeding program would have no negative genetic impact on egg production.

  13. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Corum, J.M.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-06-01

    The third in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. The models are idealized thin-shell structures consisting of two circular cylindrical shells that intersect at right angles. There are no transitions, reinforcements, or fillets in the junction region. This series of model tests serves two basic purposes: the experimental data provide design information directly applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels; and the idealized models provide test results for use in developing and evaluating theoretical analyses applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels and to thin piping tees. The cylinder of model 3 had a 10 in. OD and the nozzle had a 1.29 in. OD, giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 0.129. The OD/thickness ratios for the cylinder and the nozzle were 50 and 7.68 respectively. Thirteen separate loading cases were analyzed. In each, one end of the cylinder was rigidly held. In addition to an internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. The experimental stress distributions for all the loadings were obtained using 158 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. The loading cases were also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis developed at the University of California, Berkeley. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good agreement for this model. (U.S.)

  14. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-06-01

    The last in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. The models in the series are idealized thin-shell structures consisting of two circular cylindrical shells that intersect at right angles. There are no transitions, reinforcements, or fillets in the junction region. This series of model tests serves two basic purposes: (1) the experimental data provide design information directly applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels, and (2) the idealized models provide test results for use in developing and evaluating theoretical analyses applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels and to thin piping tees. The cylinder of model 4 had an outside diameter of 10 in., and the nozzle had an outside diameter of 1.29 in., giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 0.129. The OD/thickness ratios were 50 and 20.2 for the cylinder and nozzle respectively. Thirteen separate loading cases were analyzed. For each loading condition one end of the cylinder was rigidly held. In addition to an internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. The experimental stress distributions for each of the 13 loadings were obtained using 157 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. Each of the 13 loading cases was also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis developed at the University of California, Berkeley. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good agreement for this model. (U.S.)

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

  16. Normalisation genes for expression analyses in the brown alga model Ectocarpus siliculosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rousvoal Sylvie

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Brown algae are plant multi-cellular organisms occupying most of the world coasts and are essential actors in the constitution of ecological niches at the shoreline. Ectocarpus siliculosus is an emerging model for brown algal research. Its genome has been sequenced, and several tools are being developed to perform analyses at different levels of cell organization, including transcriptomic expression analyses. Several topics, including physiological responses to osmotic stress and to exposure to contaminants and solvents are being studied in order to better understand the adaptive capacity of brown algae to pollution and environmental changes. A series of genes that can be used to normalise expression analyses is required for these studies. Results We monitored the expression of 13 genes under 21 different culture conditions. These included genes encoding proteins and factors involved in protein translation (ribosomal protein 26S, EF1alpha, IF2A, IF4E and protein degradation (ubiquitin, ubiquitin conjugating enzyme or folding (cyclophilin, and proteins involved in both the structure of the cytoskeleton (tubulin alpha, actin, actin-related proteins and its trafficking function (dynein, as well as a protein implicated in carbon metabolism (glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase. The stability of their expression level was assessed using the Ct range, and by applying both the geNorm and the Normfinder principles of calculation. Conclusion Comparisons of the data obtained with the three methods of calculation indicated that EF1alpha (EF1a was the best reference gene for normalisation. The normalisation factor should be calculated with at least two genes, alpha tubulin, ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme or actin-related proteins being good partners of EF1a. Our results exclude actin as a good normalisation gene, and, in this, are in agreement with previous studies in other organisms.

  17. Models for regionalizing economic data and their applications within the scope of forensic disaster analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Hanns-Maximilian; Wiens, rer. pol. Marcus, , Dr.; Schultmann, rer. pol. Frank, Prof. _., Dr.

    2015-04-01

    The impact of natural hazards on the economic system can be observed in many different regions all over the world. Once the local economic structure is hit by an event direct costs instantly occur. However, the disturbance on a local level (e.g. parts of city or industries along a river bank) might also cause monetary damages in other, indirectly affected sectors. If the impact of an event is strong, these damages are likely to cascade and spread even on an international scale (e.g. the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull and its impact on the automotive sector in Europe). In order to determine these special impacts, one has to gain insights into the directly hit economic structure before being able to calculate these side effects. Especially, regarding the development of a model used for near real-time forensic disaster analyses any simulation needs to be based on data that is rapidly available or easily to be computed. Therefore, we investigated commonly used or recently discussed methodologies for regionalizing economic data. Surprisingly, even for German federal states there is no official input-output data available that can be used, although it might provide detailed figures concerning economic interrelations between different industry sectors. In the case of highly developed countries, such as Germany, we focus on models for regionalizing nationwide input-output table which is usually available at the national statistical offices. However, when it comes to developing countries (e.g. South-East Asia) the data quality and availability is usually much poorer. In this case, other sources need to be found for the proper assessment of regional economic performance. We developed an indicator-based model that can fill this gap because of its flexibility regarding the level of aggregation and the composability of different input parameters. Our poster presentation brings up a literature review and a summary on potential models that seem to be useful for this specific task

  18. Evaluation of Temperature and Humidity Profiles of Unified Model and ECMWF Analyses Using GRUAN Radiosonde Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Chan Noh

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and water vapor profiles from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO Unified Model (UM data assimilation systems and from reanalysis fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF were assessed using collocated radiosonde observations from the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN for January–December 2012. The motivation was to examine the overall performance of data assimilation outputs. The difference statistics of the collocated model outputs versus the radiosonde observations indicated a good agreement for the temperature, amongst datasets, while less agreement was found for the relative humidity. A comparison of the UM outputs from the UKMO and KMA revealed that they are similar to each other. The introduction of the new version of UM into the KMA in May 2012 resulted in an improved analysis performance, particularly for the moisture field. On the other hand, ECMWF reanalysis data showed slightly reduced performance for relative humidity compared with the UM, with a significant humid bias in the upper troposphere. ECMWF reanalysis temperature fields showed nearly the same performance as the two UM analyses. The root mean square differences (RMSDs of the relative humidity for the three models were larger for more humid conditions, suggesting that humidity forecasts are less reliable under these conditions.

  19. Application of a weighted spatial probability model in GIS to analyse landslides in Penang Island, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samy Ismail Elmahdy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current study, Penang Island, which is one of the several mountainous areas in Malaysia that is often subjected to landslide hazard, was chosen for further investigation. A multi-criteria Evaluation and the spatial probability weighted approach and model builder was applied to map and analyse landslides in Penang Island. A set of automated algorithms was used to construct new essential geological and morphometric thematic maps from remote sensing data. The maps were ranked using the weighted probability spatial model based on their contribution to the landslide hazard. Results obtained showed that sites at an elevation of 100–300 m, with steep slopes of 10°–37° and slope direction (aspect in the E and SE directions were areas of very high and high probability for the landslide occurrence; the total areas were 21.393 km2 (11.84% and 58.690 km2 (32.48%, respectively. The obtained map was verified by comparing variogram models of the mapped and the occurred landslide locations and showed a strong correlation with the locations of occurred landslides, indicating that the proposed method can successfully predict the unpredictable landslide hazard. The method is time and cost effective and can be used as a reference for geological and geotechnical engineers.

  20. Analyses of Research Topics in the Field of Informetrics Based on the Method of Topic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Chien Lin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we used the approach of topic modeling to uncover the possible structure of research topics in the field of Informetrics, to explore the distribution of the topics over years, and to compare the core journals. In order to infer the structure of the topics in the field, the data of the papers published in the Journal of Informetricsand Scientometrics during 2007 to 2013 are retrieved from the database of the Web of Science as input of the approach of topic modeling. The results of this study show that when the number of topics was set to 10, the topic model has the smallest perplexity. Although data scopes and analysis methodsare different to previous studies, the generating topics of this study are consistent with those results produced by analyses of experts. Empirical case studies and measurements of bibliometric indicators were concerned important in every year during the whole analytic period, and the field was increasing stability. Both the two core journals broadly paid more attention to all of the topics in the field of Informetrics. The Journal of Informetricsput particular emphasis on construction and applications ofbibliometric indicators and Scientometrics focused on the evaluation and the factors of productivity of countries, institutions, domains, and journals.

  1. Developing a system dynamics model to analyse environmental problem in construction site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haron, Fatin Fasehah; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

    2017-11-01

    This study aims to develop a system dynamics model at a construction site to analyse the impact of environmental problem. Construction sites may cause damages to the environment, and interference in the daily lives of residents. A proper environmental management system must be used to reduce pollution, enhance bio-diversity, conserve water, respect people and their local environment, measure performance and set targets for the environment and sustainability. This study investigates the damaging impact normally occur during the construction stage. Environmental problem will cause costly mistake in project implementation, either because of the environmental damages that are likely to arise during project implementation, or because of modification that may be required subsequently in order to make the action environmentally acceptable. Thus, findings from this study has helped in significantly reducing the damaging impact towards environment, and improve the environmental management system performance at construction site.

  2. Development and application of model RAIA uranium on-line analyser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Yanwu; Song Yufen; Zhu Yaokun; Cong Peiyuan; Cui Songru

    1999-01-01

    The working principle, structure, adjustment and application of model RAIA on-line analyser are reported. The performance of this instrument is reliable. For identical sample, the signal fluctuation in continuous monitoring for four months is less than +-1%. According to required measurement range, appropriate length of sample cell is chosen. The precision of measurement process is better than 1% at 100 g/L U. The detection limit is 50 mg/L. The uranium concentration in process stream can be displayed automatically and printed at any time. It presents 4∼20 mA current signal being proportional to the uranium concentration. This makes a long step towards process continuous control and computer management

  3. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  4. A model for analysing factors which may influence quality management procedures in higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin MAICAN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In all universities, the Office for Quality Assurance defines the procedure for assessing the performance of the teaching staff, with a view to establishing students’ perception as regards the teachers’ activity from the point of view of the quality of the teaching process, of the relationship with the students and of the assistance provided for learning. The present paper aims at creating a combined model for evaluation, based on Data Mining statistical methods: starting from the findings revealed by the evaluations teachers performed to students, using the cluster analysis and the discriminant analysis, we identified the subjects which produced significant differences between students’ grades, subjects which were subsequently subjected to an evaluation by students. The results of these analyses allowed the formulation of certain measures for enhancing the quality of the evaluation process.

  5. An application of the 'Bayesian cohort model' to nuclear power plant cost analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kenji; Nakamura, Takashi

    2002-01-01

    We have developed a new method for identifying the effects of calendar year, plant age and commercial operation starting year on the costs and performances of nuclear power plants and also developed an analysis system running on personal computers. The method extends the Bayesian cohort model for time series social survey data proposed by one of the authors. The proposed method was shown to be able to separate the above three effects more properly than traditional methods such as taking simple means by time domain. The analyses of US nuclear plant cost and performance data by using the proposed method suggest that many of the US plants spent relatively long time and much capital cost for modification at their age of about 10 to 20 years, but that, after those ages, they performed fairly well with lower and stabilized O and M and additional capital costs. (author)

  6. Continuous spatial modelling to analyse planning and economic consequences of offshore wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, Bernd

    2011-01-01

    Offshore wind resources appear abundant, but technological, economic and planning issues significantly reduce the theoretical potential. While massive investments are anticipated and planners and developers are scouting for viable locations and consider risk and impact, few studies simultaneously address potentials and costs together with the consequences of proposed planning in an analytical and continuous manner and for larger areas at once. Consequences may be investments short of efficiency and equity, and failed planning routines. A spatial resource economic model for the Danish offshore waters is presented, used to analyse area constraints, technological risks, priorities for development and opportunity costs of maintaining competing area uses. The SCREAM-offshore wind model (Spatially Continuous Resource Economic Analysis Model) uses raster-based geographical information systems (GIS) and considers numerous geographical factors, technology and cost data as well as planning information. Novel elements are weighted visibility analysis and geographically recorded shipping movements as variable constraints. A number of scenarios have been described, which include restrictions of using offshore areas, as well as alternative uses such as conservation and tourism. The results comprise maps, tables and cost-supply curves for further resource economic assessment and policy analysis. A discussion of parameter variations exposes uncertainties of technology development, environmental protection as well as competing area uses and illustrates how such models might assist in ameliorating public planning, while procuring decision bases for the political process. The method can be adapted to different research questions, and is largely applicable in other parts of the world. - Research Highlights: → A model for the spatially continuous evaluation of offshore wind resources. → Assessment of spatial constraints, costs and resources for each location. → Planning tool for

  7. Comparative modeling analyses of Cs-137 fate in the rivers impacted by Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S. [Institute of Environmental Radioactivity, Fukushima University (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The consequences of two largest nuclear accidents of the last decades - at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) (1986) and at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (FDNPP) (2011) clearly demonstrated that radioactive contamination of water bodies in vicinity of NPP and on the waterways from it, e.g., river- reservoir water after Chernobyl accident and rivers and coastal marine waters after Fukushima accident, in the both cases have been one of the main sources of the public concerns on the accident consequences. The higher weight of water contamination in public perception of the accidents consequences in comparison with the real fraction of doses via aquatic pathways in comparison with other dose components is a specificity of public perception of environmental contamination. This psychological phenomenon that was confirmed after these accidents provides supplementary arguments that the reliable simulation and prediction of the radionuclide dynamics in water and sediments is important part of the post-accidental radioecological research. The purpose of the research is to use the experience of the modeling activities f conducted for the past more than 25 years within the Chernobyl affected Pripyat River and Dnieper River watershed as also data of the new monitoring studies in Japan of Abukuma River (largest in the region - the watershed area is 5400 km{sup 2}), Kuchibuto River, Uta River, Niita River, Natsui River, Same River, as also of the studies on the specific of the 'water-sediment' {sup 137}Cs exchanges in this area to refine the 1-D model RIVTOX and 2-D model COASTOX for the increasing of the predictive power of the modeling technologies. The results of the modeling studies are applied for more accurate prediction of water/sediment radionuclide contamination of rivers and reservoirs in the Fukushima Prefecture and for the comparative analyses of the efficiency of the of the post -accidental measures to diminish the contamination of the water bodies. Document

  8. Parameterization and sensitivity analyses of a radiative transfer model for remote sensing plant canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Carlton Raden

    A major objective of remote sensing is determination of biochemical and biophysical characteristics of plant canopies utilizing high spectral resolution sensors. Canopy reflectance signatures are dependent on absorption and scattering processes of the leaf, canopy properties, and the ground beneath the canopy. This research investigates, through field and laboratory data collection, and computer model parameterization and simulations, the relationships between leaf optical properties, canopy biophysical features, and the nadir viewed above-canopy reflectance signature. Emphasis is placed on parameterization and application of an existing irradiance radiative transfer model developed for aquatic systems. Data and model analyses provide knowledge on the relative importance of leaves and canopy biophysical features in estimating the diffuse absorption a(lambda,m-1), diffuse backscatter b(lambda,m-1), beam attenuation alpha(lambda,m-1), and beam to diffuse conversion c(lambda,m-1 ) coefficients of the two-flow irradiance model. Data sets include field and laboratory measurements from three plant species, live oak (Quercus virginiana), Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and grapefruit (Citrus paradisi) sampled on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center Florida in March and April of 1997. Features measured were depth h (m), projected foliage coverage PFC, leaf area index LAI, and zenith leaf angle. Optical measurements, collected with a Spectron SE 590 high sensitivity narrow bandwidth spectrograph, included above canopy reflectance, internal canopy transmittance and reflectance and bottom reflectance. Leaf samples were returned to laboratory where optical and physical and chemical measurements of leaf thickness, leaf area, leaf moisture and pigment content were made. A new term, the leaf volume correction index LVCI was developed and demonstrated in support of model coefficient parameterization. The LVCI is based on angle adjusted leaf

  9. Sensitivity analyses of a colloid-facilitated contaminant transport model for unsaturated heterogeneous soil conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Périard, Yann; José Gumiere, Silvio; Rousseau, Alain N.; Caron, Jean

    2013-04-01

    Certain contaminants may travel faster through soils when they are sorbed to subsurface colloidal particles. Indeed, subsurface colloids may act as carriers of some contaminants accelerating their translocation through the soil into the water table. This phenomenon is known as colloid-facilitated contaminant transport. It plays a significant role in contaminant transport in soils and has been recognized as a source of groundwater contamination. From a mechanistic point of view, the attachment/detachment of the colloidal particles from the soil matrix or from the air-water interface and the straining process may modify the hydraulic properties of the porous media. Šimůnek et al. (2006) developed a model that can simulate the colloid-facilitated contaminant transport in variably saturated porous media. The model is based on the solution of a modified advection-dispersion equation that accounts for several processes, namely: straining, exclusion and attachement/detachement kinetics of colloids through the soil matrix. The solutions of these governing, partial differential equations are obtained using a standard Galerkin-type, linear finite element scheme, implemented in the HYDRUS-2D/3D software (Šimůnek et al., 2012). Modeling colloid transport through the soil and the interaction of colloids with the soil matrix and other contaminants is complex and requires the characterization of many model parameters. In practice, it is very difficult to assess actual transport parameter values, so they are often calibrated. However, before calibration, one needs to know which parameters have the greatest impact on output variables. This kind of information can be obtained through a sensitivity analysis of the model. The main objective of this work is to perform local and global sensitivity analyses of the colloid-facilitated contaminant transport module of HYDRUS. Sensitivity analysis was performed in two steps: (i) we applied a screening method based on Morris' elementary

  10. Modeling and analysing storage systems in agricultural biomass supply chain for cellulosic ethanol production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, Mahmood; Sowlati, Taraneh; Sokhansanj, Shahab; Townley-Smith, Lawrence; Stumborg, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Studied the agricultural biomass supply chain for cellulosic ethanol production. ► Evaluated the impact of storage systems on different supply chain actors. ► Developed a combined simulation/optimization model to evaluate storage systems. ► Compared two satellite storage systems with roadside storage in terms of costs and emitted CO 2 . ► SS would lead to a more cost-efficient supply chain compared to roadside storage. -- Abstract: In this paper, a combined simulation/optimization model is developed to better understand and evaluate the impact of the storage systems on the costs incurred by each actor in the agricultural biomass supply chain including farmers, hauling contractors and the cellulosic ethanol plant. The optimization model prescribes the optimum number and location of farms and storages. It also determines the supply radius, the number of farms required to secure the annual supply of biomass and also the assignment of farms to storage locations. Given the specific design of the supply chain determined by the optimization model, the simulation model determines the number of required machines for each operation, their daily working schedule and utilization rates, along with the capacities of storages. To evaluate the impact of the storage systems on the delivered costs, three storage systems are molded and compared: roadside storage (RS) system and two satellite storage (SS) systems including SS with fixed hauling distance (SF) and SS with variable hauling distance (SV). In all storage systems, it is assumed the loading equipment is dedicated to storage locations. The obtained results from a real case study provide detailed cost figures for each storage system since the developed model analyses the supply chain on an hourly basis and considers time-dependence and stochasticity of the supply chain. Comparison of the storage systems shows SV would outperform SF and RS by reducing the total delivered cost by 8% and 6%, respectively

  11. Neural Spike-Train Analyses of the Speech-Based Envelope Power Spectrum Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rallapalli, Varsha H.

    2016-01-01

    Diagnosing and treating hearing impairment is challenging because people with similar degrees of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) often have different speech-recognition abilities. The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) has demonstrated that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNRENV) from a modulation filter bank provides a robust speech-intelligibility measure across a wider range of degraded conditions than many long-standing models. In the sEPSM, noise (N) is assumed to: (a) reduce S + N envelope power by filling in dips within clean speech (S) and (b) introduce an envelope noise floor from intrinsic fluctuations in the noise itself. While the promise of SNRENV has been demonstrated for normal-hearing listeners, it has not been thoroughly extended to hearing-impaired listeners because of limited physiological knowledge of how SNHL affects speech-in-noise envelope coding relative to noise alone. Here, envelope coding to speech-in-noise stimuli was quantified from auditory-nerve model spike trains using shuffled correlograms, which were analyzed in the modulation-frequency domain to compute modulation-band estimates of neural SNRENV. Preliminary spike-train analyses show strong similarities to the sEPSM, demonstrating feasibility of neural SNRENV computations. Results suggest that individual differences can occur based on differential degrees of outer- and inner-hair-cell dysfunction in listeners currently diagnosed into the single audiological SNHL category. The predicted acoustic-SNR dependence in individual differences suggests that the SNR-dependent rate of susceptibility could be an important metric in diagnosing individual differences. Future measurements of the neural SNRENV in animal studies with various forms of SNHL will provide valuable insight for understanding individual differences in speech-in-noise intelligibility.

  12. Analysing model fit of psychometric process models: An overview, a new test and an application to the diffusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2017-05-01

    Cognitive psychometric models embed cognitive process models into a latent trait framework in order to allow for individual differences. Due to their close relationship to the response process the models allow for profound conclusions about the test takers. However, before such a model can be used its fit has to be checked carefully. In this manuscript we give an overview over existing tests of model fit and show their relation to the generalized moment test of Newey (Econometrica, 53, 1985, 1047) and Tauchen (J. Econometrics, 30, 1985, 415). We also present a new test, the Hausman test of misspecification (Hausman, Econometrica, 46, 1978, 1251). The Hausman test consists of a comparison of two estimates of the same item parameters which should be similar if the model holds. The performance of the Hausman test is evaluated in a simulation study. In this study we illustrate its application to two popular models in cognitive psychometrics, the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model (van der Maas, Molenaar, Maris, Kievit, & Boorsboom, Psychol Rev., 118, 2011, 339; Molenaar, Tuerlinckx, & van der Maas, J. Stat. Softw., 66, 2015, 1). We also compare the performance of the test to four alternative tests of model fit, namely the M 2 test (Molenaar et al., J. Stat. Softw., 66, 2015, 1), the moment test (Ranger et al., Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol., 2016) and the test for binned time (Ranger & Kuhn, Psychol. Test. Asess. , 56, 2014b, 370). The simulation study indicates that the Hausman test is superior to the latter tests. The test closely adheres to the nominal Type I error rate and has higher power in most simulation conditions. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Microsegregation in multicomponent alloy analysed by quantitative phase-field model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, M; Takaki, T; Shibuta, Y

    2015-01-01

    Microsegregation behaviour in a ternary alloy system has been analysed by means of quantitative phase-field (Q-PF) simulations with a particular attention directed at an influence of tie-line shift stemming from different liquid diffusivities of the solute elements. The Q-PF model developed for non-isothermal solidification in multicomponent alloys with non-zero solid diffusivities was applied to analysis of microsegregation in a ternary alloy consisting of fast and slow diffusing solute elements. The accuracy of the Q-PF simulation was first verified by performing the convergence test of segregation ratio with respect to the interface thickness. From one-dimensional analysis, it was found that the microsegregation of slow diffusing element is reduced due to the tie-line shift. In two-dimensional simulations, the refinement of microstructure, viz., the decrease of secondary arms spacing occurs at low cooling rates due to the formation of diffusion layer of slow diffusing element. It yields the reductions of degrees of microsegregation for both the fast and slow diffusing elements. Importantly, in a wide range of cooling rates, the degree of microsegregation of the slow diffusing element is always lower than that of the fast diffusing element, which is entirely ascribable to the influence of tie-line shift. (paper)

  14. Modelling and Analysing Access Control Policies in XACML 3.0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramli, Carroline Dewi Puspa Kencana

    (c.f. GM03,Mos05,Ris13) and manual analysis of the overall effect and consequences of a large XACML policy set is a very daunting and time-consuming task. In this thesis we address the problem of understanding the semantics of access control policy language XACML, in particular XACML version 3.0....... The main focus of this thesis is modelling and analysing access control policies in XACML 3.0. There are two main contributions in this thesis. First, we study and formalise XACML 3.0, in particular the Policy Decision Point (PDP). The concrete syntax of XACML is based on the XML format, while its standard...... semantics is described normatively using natural language. The use of English text in standardisation leads to the risk of misinterpretation and ambiguity. In order to avoid this drawback, we define an abstract syntax of XACML 3.0 and a formal XACML semantics. Second, we propose a logic-based XACML analysis...

  15. VOC composition of current motor vehicle fuels and vapors, and collinearity analyses for receptor modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Jo-Yu; Batterman, Stuart A

    2012-03-01

    The formulation of motor vehicle fuels can alter the magnitude and composition of evaporative and exhaust emissions occurring throughout the fuel cycle. Information regarding the volatile organic compound (VOC) composition of motor fuels other than gasoline is scarce, especially for bioethanol and biodiesel blends. This study examines the liquid and vapor (headspace) composition of four contemporary and commercially available fuels: gasoline (gasoline), ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), and B20 (20% soy-biodiesel and 80% ULSD). The composition of gasoline and E85 in both neat fuel and headspace vapor was dominated by aromatics and n-heptane. Despite its low gasoline content, E85 vapor contained higher concentrations of several VOCs than those in gasoline vapor, likely due to adjustments in its formulation. Temperature changes produced greater changes in the partial pressures of 17 VOCs in E85 than in gasoline, and large shifts in the VOC composition. B20 and ULSD were dominated by C(9) to C(16)n-alkanes and low levels of the aromatics, and the two fuels had similar headspace vapor composition and concentrations. While the headspace composition predicted using vapor-liquid equilibrium theory was closely correlated to measurements, E85 vapor concentrations were underpredicted. Based on variance decomposition analyses, gasoline and diesel fuels and their vapors VOC were distinct, but B20 and ULSD fuels and vapors were highly collinear. These results can be used to estimate fuel related emissions and exposures, particularly in receptor models that apportion emission sources, and the collinearity analysis suggests that gasoline- and diesel-related emissions can be distinguished. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input

  17. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-01-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

  18. A simple beam model to analyse the durability of adhesively bonded tile floorings in presence of shrinkage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. de Miranda

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A simple beam model for the evaluation of tile debonding due to substrate shrinkage is presented. The tile-adhesive-substrate package is modeled as an Euler-Bernoulli beam laying on a two-layer elastic foundation. An effective discrete model for inter-tile grouting is introduced with the aim of modelling workmanship defects due to partial filled groutings. The model is validated using the results of a 2D FE model. Different defect configurations and adhesive typologies are analysed, focusing the attention on the prediction of normal stresses in the adhesive layer under the assumption of Mode I failure of the adhesive.

  19. Monte Carlo modeling and analyses of YALINA-booster subcritical assembly part 1: analytical models and main neutronics parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talamo, A.; Gohar, M. Y. A.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2008-01-01

    This study was carried out to model and analyze the YALINA-Booster facility, of the Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research of Belarus, with the long term objective of advancing the utilization of accelerator driven systems for the incineration of nuclear waste. The YALINA-Booster facility is a subcritical assembly, driven by an external neutron source, which has been constructed to study the neutron physics and to develop and refine methodologies to control the operation of accelerator driven systems. The external neutron source consists of Californium-252 spontaneous fission neutrons, 2.45 MeV neutrons from Deuterium-Deuterium reactions, or 14.1 MeV neutrons from Deuterium-Tritium reactions. In the latter two cases a deuteron beam is used to generate the neutrons. This study is a part of the collaborative activity between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) of USA and the Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research of Belarus. In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has a coordinated research project benchmarking and comparing the results of different numerical codes with the experimental data available from the YALINA-Booster facility and ANL has a leading role coordinating the IAEA activity. The YALINA-Booster facility has been modeled according to the benchmark specifications defined for the IAEA activity without any geometrical homogenization using the Monte Carlo codes MONK and MCNP/MCNPX/MCB. The MONK model perfectly matches the MCNP one. The computational analyses have been extended through the MCB code, which is an extension of the MCNP code with burnup capability because of its additional feature for analyzing source driven multiplying assemblies. The main neutronics parameters of the YALINA-Booster facility were calculated using these computer codes with different nuclear data libraries based on ENDF/B-VI-0, -6, JEF-2.2, and JEF-3.1

  20. Monte Carlo modeling and analyses of YALINA-booster subcritical assembly part 1: analytical models and main neutronics parameters.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talamo, A.; Gohar, M. Y. A.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2008-09-11

    This study was carried out to model and analyze the YALINA-Booster facility, of the Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research of Belarus, with the long term objective of advancing the utilization of accelerator driven systems for the incineration of nuclear waste. The YALINA-Booster facility is a subcritical assembly, driven by an external neutron source, which has been constructed to study the neutron physics and to develop and refine methodologies to control the operation of accelerator driven systems. The external neutron source consists of Californium-252 spontaneous fission neutrons, 2.45 MeV neutrons from Deuterium-Deuterium reactions, or 14.1 MeV neutrons from Deuterium-Tritium reactions. In the latter two cases a deuteron beam is used to generate the neutrons. This study is a part of the collaborative activity between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) of USA and the Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research of Belarus. In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has a coordinated research project benchmarking and comparing the results of different numerical codes with the experimental data available from the YALINA-Booster facility and ANL has a leading role coordinating the IAEA activity. The YALINA-Booster facility has been modeled according to the benchmark specifications defined for the IAEA activity without any geometrical homogenization using the Monte Carlo codes MONK and MCNP/MCNPX/MCB. The MONK model perfectly matches the MCNP one. The computational analyses have been extended through the MCB code, which is an extension of the MCNP code with burnup capability because of its additional feature for analyzing source driven multiplying assemblies. The main neutronics parameters of the YALINA-Booster facility were calculated using these computer codes with different nuclear data libraries based on ENDF/B-VI-0, -6, JEF-2.2, and JEF-3.1.

  1. FULLY AUTOMATED GIS-BASED INDIVIDUAL TREE CROWN DELINEATION BASED ON CURVATURE VALUES FROM A LIDAR DERIVED CANOPY HEIGHT MODEL IN A CONIFEROUS PLANTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. L. Argamosa

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The generation of high resolution canopy height model (CHM from LiDAR makes it possible to delineate individual tree crown by means of a fully-automated method using the CHM’s curvature through its slope. The local maxima are obtained by taking the maximum raster value in a 3 m x 3 m cell. These values are assumed as tree tops and therefore considered as individual trees. Based on the assumptions, thiessen polygons were generated to serve as buffers for the canopy extent. The negative profile curvature is then measured from the slope of the CHM. The results show that the aggregated points from a negative profile curvature raster provide the most realistic crown shape. The absence of field data regarding tree crown dimensions require accurate visual assessment after the appended delineated tree crown polygon was superimposed to the hill shaded CHM.

  2. A Conceptual Model for Analysing Management Development in the UK Hospitality Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Sandra

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual, contingent model of management development. It explains the nature of the UK hospitality industry and its potential influence on MD practices, prior to exploring dimensions and relationships in the model. The embryonic model is presented as a model that can enhance our understanding of the complexities of the…

  3. Inverse analyses of effective diffusion parameters relevant for a two-phase moisture model of cementitious materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addassi, Mouadh; Johannesson, Björn; Wadsö, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Here we present an inverse analyses approach to determining the two-phase moisture transport properties relevant to concrete durability modeling. The purposed moisture transport model was based on a continuum approach with two truly separate equations for the liquid and gas phase being connected...... test, and, (iv) capillary suction test. Mass change over time, as obtained from the drying test, the two different cup test intervals and the capillary suction test, was used to obtain the effective diffusion parameters using the proposed inverse analyses approach. The moisture properties obtained...

  4. The Evaluation of Bivariate Mixed Models in Meta-analyses of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies with SAS, Stata and R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogelgesang, Felicitas; Schlattmann, Peter; Dewey, Marc

    2018-05-01

    Meta-analyses require a thoroughly planned procedure to obtain unbiased overall estimates. From a statistical point of view not only model selection but also model implementation in the software affects the results. The present simulation study investigates the accuracy of different implementations of general and generalized bivariate mixed models in SAS (using proc mixed, proc glimmix and proc nlmixed), Stata (using gllamm, xtmelogit and midas) and R (using reitsma from package mada and glmer from package lme4). Both models incorporate the relationship between sensitivity and specificity - the two outcomes of interest in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies - utilizing random effects. Model performance is compared in nine meta-analytic scenarios reflecting the combination of three sizes for meta-analyses (89, 30 and 10 studies) with three pairs of sensitivity/specificity values (97%/87%; 85%/75%; 90%/93%). The evaluation of accuracy in terms of bias, standard error and mean squared error reveals that all implementations of the generalized bivariate model calculate sensitivity and specificity estimates with deviations less than two percentage points. proc mixed which together with reitsma implements the general bivariate mixed model proposed by Reitsma rather shows convergence problems. The random effect parameters are in general underestimated. This study shows that flexibility and simplicity of model specification together with convergence robustness should influence implementation recommendations, as the accuracy in terms of bias was acceptable in all implementations using the generalized approach. Schattauer GmbH.

  5. Results of radiotherapy in craniopharyngiomas analysed by the linear quadratic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerkaynak, M. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Hacettepe Univ., Ankara (Turkey); Oezyar, E. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Hacettepe Univ., Ankara (Turkey); Zorlu, F. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Hacettepe Univ., Ankara (Turkey); Akyol, F.H. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Hacettepe Univ., Ankara (Turkey); Lale Atahan, I. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Hacettepe Univ., Ankara (Turkey)

    1994-12-31

    In 23 craniopharyngioma patients treated by limited surgery and external radiotherapy, the results concerning local control were analysed by linear quadratic formula. A biologically effective dose (BED) of 55 Gy, calculated with time factor and an {alpha}/{beta} value of 10 Gy, seemed to be adequate for local control. (orig.).

  6. From intermediate to final behavioral endpoints : Modeling cognitions in (cost-)effectiveness analyses in health promotion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prenger, Hendrikje Cornelia

    2012-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are considered an increasingly important tool in health promotion and psychology. In health promotion adequate effectiveness data of innovative interventions are often lacking. In case of many promising interventions the available data are inadequate for CEAs due

  7. Analyses, algorithms, and computations for models of high-temperature superconductivity. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Q.

    1997-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy, the authors have achieved significant progress in the modeling, analysis, and computation of superconducting phenomena. The work so far has focused on mezoscale models as typified by the celebrated Ginzburg-Landau equations; these models are intermediate between the microscopic models (that can be used to understand the basic structure of superconductors and of the atomic and sub-atomic behavior of these materials) and the macroscale, or homogenized, models (that can be of use for the design of devices). The models they have considered include a time dependent Ginzburg-Landau model, a variable thickness thin film model, models for high values of the Ginzburg-landau parameter, models that account for normal inclusions and fluctuations and Josephson effects, and the anisotropic ginzburg-Landau and Lawrence-Doniach models for layered superconductors, including those with high critical temperatures. In each case, they have developed or refined the models, derived rigorous mathematical results that enhance the state of understanding of the models and their solutions, and developed, analyzed, and implemented finite element algorithms for the approximate solution of the model equations

  8. Analyses, algorithms, and computations for models of high-temperature superconductivity. Final technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunzburger, M.D.; Peterson, J.S.

    1998-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy, the authors have achieved significant progress in the modeling, analysis, and computation of superconducting phenomena. Their work has focused on mezoscale models as typified by the celebrated ginzburg-Landau equations; these models are intermediate between the microscopic models (that can be used to understand the basic structure of superconductors and of the atomic and sub-atomic behavior of these materials) and the macroscale, or homogenized, models (that can be of use for the design of devices). The models the authors have considered include a time dependent Ginzburg-Landau model, a variable thickness thin film model, models for high values of the Ginzburg-Landau parameter, models that account for normal inclusions and fluctuations and Josephson effects, and the anisotropic Ginzburg-Landau and Lawrence-Doniach models for layered superconductors, including those with high critical temperatures. In each case, they have developed or refined the models, derived rigorous mathematical results that enhance the state of understanding of the models and their solutions, and developed, analyzed, and implemented finite element algorithms for the approximate solution of the model equations

  9. Bio-economic farm modelling to analyse agricultural land productivity in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bidogeza, J.C.

    2011-01-01

    Keywords: Rwanda; farm household typology; sustainable technology adoption; multivariate analysis;
    land degradation; food security; bioeconomic model; crop simulation models; organic fertiliser; inorganic fertiliser; policy incentives

    In Rwanda, land degradation contributes to the

  10. Scalable Coupling of Multiscale AEH and PARADYN Analyses for Impact Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Valisetty, Rama R; Chung, Peter W; Namburu, Raju R

    2005-01-01

    .... An asymptotic expansion homogenization (AEH)-based microstructural model available for modeling microstructural aspects of modern armor materials is coupled with PARADYN, a parallel explicit Lagrangian finite-element code...

  11. Development of CFD fire models for deterministic analyses of the cable issues in the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-H.; Ferng, Y.-M.; Pei, B.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Additional fire barriers of electrical cables are required for the nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan due to the separation requirements of Appendix R to 10 CFR Part 50. The risk-informed fire analysis (RIFA) may provide a viable method to resolve these fire barrier issues. However, it is necessary to perform the fire scenario analyses so that RIFA can quantitatively determine the risk related to the fire barrier wrap. The CFD fire models are then proposed in this paper to help the RIFA in resolving these issues. Three typical fire scenarios are selected to assess the present CFD models. Compared with the experimental data and other model's simulations, the present calculated results show reasonable agreements, rendering that present CFD fire models can provide the quantitative information for RIFA analyses to release the cable wrap requirements for NPPs

  12. The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovic, B.; Stevanovic, V.

    1985-01-01

    The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)

  13. Conducting requirements analyses for research using routinely collected health data: a model driven approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lusignan, Simon; Cashman, Josephine; Poh, Norman; Michalakidis, Georgios; Mason, Aaron; Desombre, Terry; Krause, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Medical research increasingly requires the linkage of data from different sources. Conducting a requirements analysis for a new application is an established part of software engineering, but rarely reported in the biomedical literature; and no generic approaches have been published as to how to link heterogeneous health data. Literature review, followed by a consensus process to define how requirements for research, using, multiple data sources might be modeled. We have developed a requirements analysis: i-ScheDULEs - The first components of the modeling process are indexing and create a rich picture of the research study. Secondly, we developed a series of reference models of progressive complexity: Data flow diagrams (DFD) to define data requirements; unified modeling language (UML) use case diagrams to capture study specific and governance requirements; and finally, business process models, using business process modeling notation (BPMN). These requirements and their associated models should become part of research study protocols.

  14. Pathway models for analysing and managing the introduction of alien plant pests—an overview and categorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.C. Douma; M. Pautasso; R.C. Venette; C. Robinet; L. Hemerik; M.C.M. Mourits; J. Schans; W. van der Werf

    2016-01-01

    Alien plant pests are introduced into new areas at unprecedented rates through global trade, transport, tourism and travel, threatening biodiversity and agriculture. Increasingly, the movement and introduction of pests is analysed with pathway models to provide risk managers with quantitative estimates of introduction risks and effectiveness of management options....

  15. Economical analyses of build-operate-transfer model in establishing alternative power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yumurtaci, Zehra [Yildiz Technical University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Y.T.U. Mak. Fak. Mak. Muh. Bolumu, Besiktas, 34349 Istanbul (Turkey)]. E-mail: zyumur@yildiz.edu.tr; Erdem, Hasan Hueseyin [Yildiz Technical University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Y.T.U. Mak. Fak. Mak. Muh. Bolumu, Besiktas, 34349 Istanbul (Turkey)

    2007-01-15

    The most widely employed method to meet the increasing electricity demand is building new power plants. The most important issue in building new power plants is to find financial funds. Various models are employed, especially in developing countries, in order to overcome this problem and to find a financial source. One of these models is the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model. In this model, the investor raises all the funds for mandatory expenses and provides financing, builds the plant and, after a certain plant operation period, transfers the plant to the national power organization. In this model, the object is to decrease the burden of power plants on the state budget. The most important issue in the BOT model is the dependence of the unit electricity cost on the transfer period. In this study, the model giving the unit electricity cost depending on the transfer of the plants established according to the BOT model, has been discussed. Unit electricity investment cost and unit electricity cost in relation to transfer period for plant types have been determined. Furthermore, unit electricity cost change depending on load factor, which is one of the parameters affecting annual electricity production, has been determined, and the results have been analyzed. This method can be employed for comparing the production costs of different plants that are planned to be established according to the BOT model, or it can be employed to determine the appropriateness of the BOT model.

  16. Economical analyses of build-operate-transfer model in establishing alternative power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yumurtaci, Zehra; Erdem, Hasan Hueseyin

    2007-01-01

    The most widely employed method to meet the increasing electricity demand is building new power plants. The most important issue in building new power plants is to find financial funds. Various models are employed, especially in developing countries, in order to overcome this problem and to find a financial source. One of these models is the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model. In this model, the investor raises all the funds for mandatory expenses and provides financing, builds the plant and, after a certain plant operation period, transfers the plant to the national power organization. In this model, the object is to decrease the burden of power plants on the state budget. The most important issue in the BOT model is the dependence of the unit electricity cost on the transfer period. In this study, the model giving the unit electricity cost depending on the transfer of the plants established according to the BOT model, has been discussed. Unit electricity investment cost and unit electricity cost in relation to transfer period for plant types have been determined. Furthermore, unit electricity cost change depending on load factor, which is one of the parameters affecting annual electricity production, has been determined, and the results have been analyzed. This method can be employed for comparing the production costs of different plants that are planned to be established according to the BOT model, or it can be employed to determine the appropriateness of the BOT model

  17. RETRAN nonequilibrium two-phase flow model for operational transient analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulsen, M.P.; Hughes, E.D.

    1982-01-01

    The field balance equations, flow-field models, and equation of state for a nonequilibrium two-phase flow model for RETRAN are given. The differential field balance model equations are: (1) conservation of mixture mass; (2) conservation of vapor mass; (3) balance of mixture momentum; (4) a dynamic-slip model for the velocity difference; and (5) conservation of mixture energy. The equation of state is formulated such that the liquid phase may be subcooled, saturated, or superheated. The vapor phase is constrained to be at the saturation state. The dynamic-slip model includes wall-to-phase and interphase momentum exchanges. A mechanistic vapor generation model is used to describe vapor production under bulk subcooling conditions. The speed of sound for the mixture under nonequilibrium conditions is obtained from the equation of state formulation. The steady-state and transient solution methods are described

  18. Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatization on electricity investment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, D.W.; Vlahos, K. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Larsen, E.R. [Bologna Univ. (Italy)

    1997-11-01

    This chapter examines two modelling approaches optimisation and system dynamics, for describing the effects of the privatisation of the UK electric supply industry. Modelling the transfer of ownership effects is discussed and the implications of the rate of return, tax and debt are considered. The modelling of the competitive effects is addressed, and the effects of market structure, risk and uncertainty, and strategic competition are explored in detail. (UK)

  19. Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.

    2003-04-01

    For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.

  20. Comparative study analysing women's childbirth satisfaction and obstetric outcomes across two different models of maternity care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conesa Ferrer, Ma Belén; Canteras Jordana, Manuel; Ballesteros Meseguer, Carmen; Carrillo García, César; Martínez Roche, M Emilia

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To describe the differences in obstetrical results and women's childbirth satisfaction across 2 different models of maternity care (biomedical model and humanised birth). Setting 2 university hospitals in south-eastern Spain from April to October 2013. Design A correlational descriptive study. Participants A convenience sample of 406 women participated in the study, 204 of the biomedical model and 202 of the humanised model. Results The differences in obstetrical results were (biomedical model/humanised model): onset of labour (spontaneous 66/137, augmentation 70/1, p=0.0005), pain relief (epidural 172/132, no pain relief 9/40, p=0.0005), mode of delivery (normal vaginal 140/165, instrumental 48/23, p=0.004), length of labour (0–4 hours 69/93, >4 hours 133/108, p=0.011), condition of perineum (intact perineum or tear 94/178, episiotomy 100/24, p=0.0005). The total questionnaire score (100) gave a mean (M) of 78.33 and SD of 8.46 in the biomedical model of care and an M of 82.01 and SD of 7.97 in the humanised model of care (p=0.0005). In the analysis of the results per items, statistical differences were found in 8 of the 9 subscales. The highest scores were reached in the humanised model of maternity care. Conclusions The humanised model of maternity care offers better obstetrical outcomes and women's satisfaction scores during the labour, birth and immediate postnatal period than does the biomedical model. PMID:27566632

  1. Solving scheduling problems by untimed model checking. The clinical chemical analyser case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Margaria, T.; Wijs, Anton J.; Massink, M.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Bortnik, Elena M.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we show how scheduling problems can be modelled in untimed process algebra, by using special tick actions. A minimal-cost trace leading to a particular action, is one that minimises the number of tick steps. As a result, we can use any (timed or untimed) model checking tool to find

  2. A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Lit, R.

    2015-01-01

    Summary: We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which assumes a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. The dynamic model is a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results

  3. Integrated freight network model : a GIS-based platform for transportation analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The models currently used to examine the behavior transportation systems are usually mode-specific. That is, they focus on a single mode (i.e. railways, highways, or waterways). The lack of : integration limits the usefulness of models to analyze the...

  4. A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.

    2018-01-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

  5. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  6. Comparative Analyses of MIRT Models and Software (BMIRT and flexMIRT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yavuz, Guler; Hambleton, Ronald K.

    2017-01-01

    Application of MIRT modeling procedures is dependent on the quality of parameter estimates provided by the estimation software and techniques used. This study investigated model parameter recovery of two popular MIRT packages, BMIRT and flexMIRT, under some common measurement conditions. These packages were specifically selected to investigate the…

  7. Development and preliminary analyses of material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumura, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    Material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle has been developed using ORIGEN-2 code as basic engine. This model has feature of: It can treat more than 1000 nuclides including minor actinides and fission products. It has flexibility of modeling and graph output using a engineering work station. I made preliminary calculation of LWR fuel high burnup effect (reloading fuel average burnup of 60 GWd/t) on nuclear fuel cycle. The preliminary calculation shows LWR fuel high burnup has much effect on Japanese Pu balance problem. (author)

  8. Analysing the distribution of synaptic vesicles using a spatial point process model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khanmohammadi, Mahdieh; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Nava, Nicoletta

    2014-01-01

    functionality by statistically modelling the distribution of the synaptic vesicles in two groups of rats: a control group subjected to sham stress and a stressed group subjected to a single acute foot-shock (FS)-stress episode. We hypothesize that the synaptic vesicles have different spatial distributions...... in the two groups. The spatial distributions are modelled using spatial point process models with an inhomogeneous conditional intensity and repulsive pairwise interactions. Our results verify the hypothesis that the two groups have different spatial distributions....

  9. Neural Network-Based Model for Landslide Susceptibility and Soil Longitudinal Profile Analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, F.; Barari, Amin; Choobbasti, A. J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create an empirical model for assessing the landslide risk potential at Savadkouh Azad University, which is located in the rural surroundings of Savadkouh, about 5 km from the city of Pol-Sefid in northern Iran. The soil longitudinal profile of the city of Babol......, located 25 km from the Caspian Sea, also was predicted with an artificial neural network (ANN). A multilayer perceptron neural network model was applied to the landslide area and was used to analyze specific elements in the study area that contributed to previous landsliding events. The ANN models were...... studies in landslide susceptibility zonation....

  10. Statistical Modelling of Synaptic Vesicles Distribution and Analysing their Physical Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khanmohammadi, Mahdieh

    transmission electron microscopy is used to acquire images from two experimental groups of rats: 1) rats subjected to a behavioral model of stress and 2) rats subjected to sham stress as the control group. The synaptic vesicle distribution and interactions are modeled by employing a point process approach......This Ph.D. thesis deals with mathematical and statistical modeling of synaptic vesicle distribution, shape, orientation and interactions. The first major part of this thesis treats the problem of determining the effect of stress on synaptic vesicle distribution and interactions. Serial section...... on differences of statistical measures in section and the same measures in between sections. Three-dimensional (3D) datasets are reconstructed by using image registration techniques and estimated thicknesses. We distinguish the effect of stress by estimating the synaptic vesicle densities and modeling...

  11. Modeling of Control Costs, Emissions, and Control Retrofits for Cost Effectiveness and Feasibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about EPA’s use of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop estimates of SO2 and NOx emission control costs, projections of futureemissions, and projections of capacity of future control retrofits, assuming controls on EGUs.

  12. Assessment applicability of selected models of multiple discriminant analyses to forecast financial situation of Polish wood sector enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamowicz Krzysztof

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last three decades forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises has been an important and difficult problem, used as an impulse for many research projects (Ribeiro et al. 2012. At present many methods of bankruptcy prediction are available. In view of the specific character of economic activity in individual sectors, specialised methods adapted to a given branch of industry are being used increasingly often. For this reason an important scientific problem is related with the indication of an appropriate model or group of models to prepare forecasts for a given branch of industry. Thus research has been conducted to select an appropriate model of Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA, best adapted to forecasting changes in the wood industry. This study analyses 10 prediction models popular in Poland. Effectiveness of the model proposed by Jagiełło, developed for all industrial enterprises, may be labelled accidental. That model is not adapted to predict financial changes in wood sector companies in Poland.

  13. Numerical tools for musical instruments acoustics: analysing nonlinear physical models using continuation of periodic solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Karkar , Sami; Vergez , Christophe; Cochelin , Bruno

    2012-01-01

    International audience; We propose a new approach based on numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis for the study of physical models of instruments that produce self- sustained oscillation. Numerical continuation consists in following how a given solution of a set of equations is modified when one (or several) parameter of these equations are allowed to vary. Several physical models (clarinet, saxophone, and violin) are formulated as nonlinear dynamical systems, whose periodic solution...

  14. Analysing stratified medicine business models and value systems: innovation-regulation interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittra, James; Tait, Joyce

    2012-09-15

    Stratified medicine offers both opportunities and challenges to the conventional business models that drive pharmaceutical R&D. Given the increasingly unsustainable blockbuster model of drug development, due in part to maturing product pipelines, alongside increasing demands from regulators, healthcare providers and patients for higher standards of safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of new therapies, stratified medicine promises a range of benefits to pharmaceutical and diagnostic firms as well as healthcare providers and patients. However, the transition from 'blockbusters' to what might now be termed 'niche-busters' will require the adoption of new, innovative business models, the identification of different and perhaps novel types of value along the R&D pathway, and a smarter approach to regulation to facilitate innovation in this area. In this paper we apply the Innogen Centre's interdisciplinary ALSIS methodology, which we have developed for the analysis of life science innovation systems in contexts where the value creation process is lengthy, expensive and highly uncertain, to this emerging field of stratified medicine. In doing so, we consider the complex collaboration, timing, coordination and regulatory interactions that shape business models, value chains and value systems relevant to stratified medicine. More specifically, we explore in some depth two convergence models for co-development of a therapy and diagnostic before market authorisation, highlighting the regulatory requirements and policy initiatives within the broader value system environment that have a key role in determining the probable success and sustainability of these models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysing the Costs of Integrated Care: A Case on Model Selection for Chronic Care Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Carreras

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study is to investigate whether the algorithm proposed by Manning and Mullahy, a consolidated health economics procedure, can also be used to estimate individual costs for different groups of healthcare services in the context of integrated care. Methods: A cross-sectional study focused on the population of the Baix Empordà (Catalonia-Spain for the year 2012 (N = 92,498 individuals. A set of individual cost models as a function of sex, age and morbidity burden were adjusted and individual healthcare costs were calculated using a retrospective full-costing system. The individual morbidity burden was inferred using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG patient classification system. Results: Depending on the characteristics of the data, and according to the algorithm criteria, the choice of model was a linear model on the log of costs or a generalized linear model with a log link. We checked for goodness of fit, accuracy, linear structure and heteroscedasticity for the models obtained. Conclusion: The proposed algorithm identified a set of suitable cost models for the distinct groups of services integrated care entails. The individual morbidity burden was found to be indispensable when allocating appropriate resources to targeted individuals.

  16. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  17. Comprehensive analyses of ventricular myocyte models identify targets exhibiting favorable rate dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan A Cummins

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse rate dependence is a problematic property of antiarrhythmic drugs that prolong the cardiac action potential (AP. The prolongation caused by reverse rate dependent agents is greater at slow heart rates, resulting in both reduced arrhythmia suppression at fast rates and increased arrhythmia risk at slow rates. The opposite property, forward rate dependence, would theoretically overcome these parallel problems, yet forward rate dependent (FRD antiarrhythmics remain elusive. Moreover, there is evidence that reverse rate dependence is an intrinsic property of perturbations to the AP. We have addressed the possibility of forward rate dependence by performing a comprehensive analysis of 13 ventricular myocyte models. By simulating populations of myocytes with varying properties and analyzing population results statistically, we simultaneously predicted the rate-dependent effects of changes in multiple model parameters. An average of 40 parameters were tested in each model, and effects on AP duration were assessed at slow (0.2 Hz and fast (2 Hz rates. The analysis identified a variety of FRD ionic current perturbations and generated specific predictions regarding their mechanisms. For instance, an increase in L-type calcium current is FRD when this is accompanied by indirect, rate-dependent changes in slow delayed rectifier potassium current. A comparison of predictions across models identified inward rectifier potassium current and the sodium-potassium pump as the two targets most likely to produce FRD AP prolongation. Finally, a statistical analysis of results from the 13 models demonstrated that models displaying minimal rate-dependent changes in AP shape have little capacity for FRD perturbations, whereas models with large shape changes have considerable FRD potential. This can explain differences between species and between ventricular cell types. Overall, this study provides new insights, both specific and general, into the determinants of

  18. Thermo-mechanical analyses and model validation in the HAW test field. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heijdra, J J; Broerse, J; Prij, J

    1995-01-01

    An overview is given of the thermo-mechanical analysis work done for the design of the High Active Waste experiment and for the purpose of validation of the used models through comparison with experiments. A brief treatise is given on the problems of validation of models used for the prediction of physical behaviour which cannot be determined with experiments. The analysis work encompasses investigations into the initial state of stress in the field, the constitutive relations, the temperature rise, and the pressure on the liner tubes inserted in the field to guarantee the retrievability of the radioactive sources used for the experiment. The measurements of temperatures, deformations, and stresses are described and an evaluation is given of the comparison of measured and calculated data. An attempt has been made to qualify or even quantify the discrepancies, if any, between measurements and calculations. It was found that the model for the temperature calculations performed adequately. For the stresses the general tendency was good, however, large discrepancies exist mainly due to inaccuracies in the measurements. For the deformations again the general tendency of the model predictions was in accordance with the measurements. However, from the evaluation it appears that in spite of the efforts to estimate the correct initial rock pressure at the location of the experiment, this pressure has been underestimated. The evaluation has contributed to a considerable increase in confidence in the models and gives no reason to question the constitutive model for rock salt. However, due to the quality of the measurements of the stress and the relatively short period of the experiments no quantitatively firm support for the constitutive model is acquired. Collections of graphs giving the measured and calculated data are attached as appendices. (orig.).

  19. Thermo-mechanical analyses and model validation in the HAW test field. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heijdra, J.J.; Broerse, J.; Prij, J.

    1995-01-01

    An overview is given of the thermo-mechanical analysis work done for the design of the High Active Waste experiment and for the purpose of validation of the used models through comparison with experiments. A brief treatise is given on the problems of validation of models used for the prediction of physical behaviour which cannot be determined with experiments. The analysis work encompasses investigations into the initial state of stress in the field, the constitutive relations, the temperature rise, and the pressure on the liner tubes inserted in the field to guarantee the retrievability of the radioactive sources used for the experiment. The measurements of temperatures, deformations, and stresses are described and an evaluation is given of the comparison of measured and calculated data. An attempt has been made to qualify or even quantify the discrepancies, if any, between measurements and calculations. It was found that the model for the temperature calculations performed adequately. For the stresses the general tendency was good, however, large discrepancies exist mainly due to inaccuracies in the measurements. For the deformations again the general tendency of the model predictions was in accordance with the measurements. However, from the evaluation it appears that in spite of the efforts to estimate the correct initial rock pressure at the location of the experiment, this pressure has been underestimated. The evaluation has contributed to a considerable increase in confidence in the models and gives no reason to question the constitutive model for rock salt. However, due to the quality of the measurements of the stress and the relatively short period of the experiments no quantitatively firm support for the constitutive model is acquired. Collections of graphs giving the measured and calculated data are attached as appendices. (orig.)

  20. Analysing bifurcations encountered in numerical modelling of current transfer to cathodes of dc glow and arc discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, P G C; Benilov, M S; Cunha, M D; Faria, M J

    2009-01-01

    Bifurcations and/or their consequences are frequently encountered in numerical modelling of current transfer to cathodes of gas discharges, also in apparently simple situations, and a failure to recognize and properly analyse a bifurcation may create difficulties in the modelling and hinder the understanding of numerical results and the underlying physics. This work is concerned with analysis of bifurcations that have been encountered in the modelling of steady-state current transfer to cathodes of glow and arc discharges. All basic types of steady-state bifurcations (fold, transcritical, pitchfork) have been identified and analysed. The analysis provides explanations to many results obtained in numerical modelling. In particular, it is shown that dramatic changes in patterns of current transfer to cathodes of both glow and arc discharges, described by numerical modelling, occur through perturbed transcritical bifurcations of first- and second-order contact. The analysis elucidates the reason why the mode of glow discharge associated with the falling section of the current-voltage characteristic in the solution of von Engel and Steenbeck seems not to appear in 2D numerical modelling and the subnormal and normal modes appear instead. A similar effect has been identified in numerical modelling of arc cathodes and explained.

  1. Modeling of in-vessel fission product release including fuel morphology effects for severe accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, K.Y.

    1989-10-01

    A new in-vessel fission product release model has been developed and implemented to perform best-estimate calculations of realistic source terms including fuel morphology effects. The proposed bulk mass transfer correlation determines the product of fission product release and equiaxed grain size as a function of the inverse fuel temperature. The model accounts for the fuel-cladding interaction over the temperature range between 770 K and 3000 K in the steam environment. A separate driver has been developed for the in-vessel thermal hydraulic and fission product behavior models that were developed by the Department of Energy for the Modular Accident Analysis Package (MAAP). Calculational results of these models have been compared to the results of the Power Burst Facility Severe Fuel Damage tests. The code predictions utilizing the mass transfer correlation agreed with the experimentally determined fractional release rates during the course of the heatup, power hold, and cooldown phases of the high temperature transients. Compared to such conventional literature correlations as the steam oxidation model and the NUREG-0956 correlation, the mass transfer correlation resulted in lower and less rapid releases in closer agreement with the on-line and grab sample data from the Severe Fuel Damage tests. The proposed mass transfer correlation can be applied for best-estimate calculations of fission products release from the UO 2 fuel in both nominal and severe accident conditions. 15 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Modelling and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems: envisioning and analysing work environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettinger, Lawrence J.; Kirlik, Alex; Goh, Yang Miang; Buckle, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Accurate comprehension and analysis of complex sociotechnical systems is a daunting task. Empirically examining, or simply envisioning the structure and behaviour of such systems challenges traditional analytic and experimental approaches as well as our everyday cognitive capabilities. Computer-based models and simulations afford potentially useful means of accomplishing sociotechnical system design and analysis objectives. From a design perspective, they can provide a basis for a common mental model among stakeholders, thereby facilitating accurate comprehension of factors impacting system performance and potential effects of system modifications. From a research perspective, models and simulations afford the means to study aspects of sociotechnical system design and operation, including the potential impact of modifications to structural and dynamic system properties, in ways not feasible with traditional experimental approaches. This paper describes issues involved in the design and use of such models and simulations and describes a proposed path forward to their development and implementation. Practitioner Summary: The size and complexity of real-world sociotechnical systems can present significant barriers to their design, comprehension and empirical analysis. This article describes the potential advantages of computer-based models and simulations for understanding factors that impact sociotechnical system design and operation, particularly with respect to process and occupational safety. PMID:25761227

  3. GSEVM v.2: MCMC software to analyse genetically structured environmental variance models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibáñez-Escriche, N; Garcia, M; Sorensen, D

    2010-01-01

    This note provides a description of software that allows to fit Bayesian genetically structured variance models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The gsevm v.2 program was written in Fortran 90. The DOS and Unix executable programs, the user's guide, and some example files are freely available...... for research purposes at http://www.bdporc.irta.es/estudis.jsp. The main feature of the program is to compute Monte Carlo estimates of marginal posterior distributions of parameters of interest. The program is quite flexible, allowing the user to fit a variety of linear models at the level of the mean...

  4. Analysing Amazonian forest productivity using a new individual and trait-based model (TFS v.1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyllas, N. M.; Gloor, E.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Quesada, C. A.; Domingues, T. F.; Galbraith, D. R.; Torre-Lezama, A.; Vilanova, E.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Higuchi, N.; Neill, D. A.; Silveira, M.; Ferreira, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Malhi, Y.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

    2014-07-01

    Repeated long-term censuses have revealed large-scale spatial patterns in Amazon basin forest structure and dynamism, with some forests in the west of the basin having up to a twice as high rate of aboveground biomass production and tree recruitment as forests in the east. Possible causes for this variation could be the climatic and edaphic gradients across the basin and/or the spatial distribution of tree species composition. To help understand causes of this variation a new individual-based model of tropical forest growth, designed to take full advantage of the forest census data available from the Amazonian Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), has been developed. The model allows for within-stand variations in tree size distribution and key functional traits and between-stand differences in climate and soil physical and chemical properties. It runs at the stand level with four functional traits - leaf dry mass per area (Ma), leaf nitrogen (NL) and phosphorus (PL) content and wood density (DW) varying from tree to tree - in a way that replicates the observed continua found within each stand. We first applied the model to validate canopy-level water fluxes at three eddy covariance flux measurement sites. For all three sites the canopy-level water fluxes were adequately simulated. We then applied the model at seven plots, where intensive measurements of carbon allocation are available. Tree-by-tree multi-annual growth rates generally agreed well with observations for small trees, but with deviations identified for larger trees. At the stand level, simulations at 40 plots were used to explore the influence of climate and soil nutrient availability on the gross (ΠG) and net (ΠN) primary production rates as well as the carbon use efficiency (CU). Simulated ΠG, ΠN and CU were not associated with temperature. On the other hand, all three measures of stand level productivity were positively related to both mean annual precipitation and soil nutrient status

  5. Influence of the Human Skin Tumor Type in Photodynamic Therapy Analysed by a Predictive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Salas-García

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Photodynamic Therapy (PDT modeling allows the prediction of the treatment results depending on the lesion properties, the photosensitizer distribution, or the optical source characteristics. We employ a predictive PDT model and apply it to different skin tumors. It takes into account optical radiation distribution, a nonhomogeneous topical photosensitizer spatial temporal distribution, and the time-dependent photochemical interaction. The predicted singlet oxygen molecular concentrations with varying optical irradiance are compared and could be directly related with the necrosis area. The results show a strong dependence on the particular lesion. This suggests the need to design optimal PDT treatment protocols adapted to the specific patient and lesion.

  6. Analyses of Research Topics in the Field of Informetrics Based on the Method of Topic Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sung-Chien Lin

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we used the approach of topic modeling to uncover the possible structure of research topics in the field of Informetrics, to explore the distribution of the topics over years, and to compare the core journals. In order to infer the structure of the topics in the field, the data of the papers published in the Journal of Informetricsand Scientometrics during 2007 to 2013 are retrieved from the database of the Web of Science as input of the approach of topic modeling. The results ...

  7. Studies of the Earth Energy Budget and Water Cycle Using Satellite Observations and Model Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, G. G.; VonderHarr, T. H.; Randel, D. L.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1997-01-01

    During this research period we have utilized the ERBE data set in comparisons to surface properties and water vapor observations in the atmosphere. A relationship between cloudiness and surface temperature anomalies was found. This same relationship was found in a general circulation model, verifying the model. The attempt to construct a homogeneous time series from Nimbus 6, Nimbus 7 and ERBE data is not complete because we are still waiting for the ERBE reanalysis to be completed. It will be difficult to merge the Nimbus 6 data in because its observations occurred when the average weather was different than the other periods, so regression adjustments are not effective.

  8. Modeling human papillomavirus and cervical cancer in the United States for analyses of screening and vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ortendahl Jesse

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. Methods We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. Results Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69–82% and 69% (60–77%, respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter

  9. Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

  10. Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welton, Nicky J; Soares, Marta O; Palmer, Stephen; Ades, Anthony E; Harrison, David; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Rowan, Kathy M

    2015-07-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Monte Carlo modeling of Standard Model multi-boson production processes for $\\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV ATLAS analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Shu; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Proceeding for the poster presentation at LHCP2017, Shanghai, China on the topic of "Monte Carlo modeling of Standard Model multi-boson production processes for $\\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV ATLAS analyses" (ATL-PHYS-SLIDE-2017-265 https://cds.cern.ch/record/2265389) Deadline: 01/09/2017

  12. An LP-model to analyse economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms: model presentation and application for experimental farm "de Marke"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calker, van K.J.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.; Giesen, G.W.J.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2004-01-01

    Farm level modelling can be used to determine how farm management adjustments and environmental policy affect different sustainability indicators. In this paper indicators were included in a dairy farm LP (linear programming)-model to analyse the effects of environmental policy and management

  13. Balmorel: A model for analyses of the electricity and CHP markets in the Baltic Sea Region. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.; Munksgaard, J.; Ramskov, J.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Larsen, H.V.

    2001-03-01

    This report describes the motivations behind the development of the Balmorel model as well as the model itself. The purpose of the Balmorel project is to develop a model for analyses of the power and CHP sectors in the Baltic Sea Region. The model is directed towards the analysis of relevant policy questions to the extent that they contain substantial international aspects. The model is developed in response to the trend towards internationalisation in the electricity sector. This trend is seen in increased international trade of electricity, in investment strategies among producers and otherwise. Also environmental considerations and policies are to an increasing extent gaining an international perspective in relation to the greenhouse gasses. Further, the ongoing process of deregulation of the energy sector highlights this and contributes to the need for overview and analysis. A guiding principle behind the construction of the model has been that it may serve as a means of communication in relation to the policy issues that already are or that may become important for the region. Therefore, emphasis has been put on documentation, transparency and flexibility of the model. This is achieved in part by formulating the model in a high level modelling language, and by making the model, including data, available at the internet. Potential users of the Balmorel model include research institutions, consulting companies, energy authorities, transmission system operators and energy companies. (au)

  14. Spent fuel waste disposal: analyses of model uncertainty in the MICADO project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.; Ferry, C.; Casas, I.; Bruno, J.; Quinones, J.; Johnson, L.

    2010-01-01

    The objective was to find out whether international research has now provided sufficiently reliable models to assess the corrosion behavior of spent fuel in groundwater and by this to contribute to answering the question whether the highly radioactive used fuel from nuclear reactors can be disposed of safely in a geological repository. Principal project results are described in the paper

  15. Analyses of gust fronts by means of limited area NWP model outputs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kašpar, Marek

    67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/00/1451 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : gust front * limited area NWP model * output Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003

  16. Analysing outsourcing policies in an asset management context : A six-stage model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoenmaker, R.; Verlaan, J.G.

    2013-01-01

    Asset managers of civil infrastructure are increasingly outsourcing their maintenance. Whereas maintenance is a cyclic process, decisions to outsource decisions are often project-based, and confusing the discussion on the degree of outsourcing. This paper presents a six-stage model that facilitates

  17. Cyclodextrin--piroxicam inclusion complexes: analyses by mass spectrometry and molecular modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Richard T.; Ball, Christopher P.; Gatehouse, Deborah R.; Gates, Paul J.; Lobell, Mario; Derrick, Peter J.

    1997-11-01

    Mass spectrometry has been used to investigate the natures of non-covalent complexes formed between the anti-inflammatory drug piroxicam and [alpha]-, [beta]- and [gamma]-cyclodextrins. Energies of these complexes have been calculated by means of molecular modelling. There is a correlation between peak intensities in the mass spectra and the calculated energies.

  18. Testing Mediation Using Multiple Regression and Structural Equation Modeling Analyses in Secondary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Spencer D.

    2011-01-01

    Mediation analysis in child and adolescent development research is possible using large secondary data sets. This article provides an overview of two statistical methods commonly used to test mediated effects in secondary analysis: multiple regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). Two empirical studies are presented to illustrate the…

  19. Wave modelling for the North Indian Ocean using MSMR analysed winds

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.; Babu, M.T.; Jayakumar, S.; Saran, A; Basu, S.K.; Kumar, R.; Sarkar, A

    prediction when NCMRWF winds blended with MSMR winds are utilised in the wave model. A comparison between buoy and TOPEX wave heights of May 2000 at 4 buoy locations provides a good match, showing the merit of using altimeter data, wherever it is difficult...

  20. Automated analyses of model-driven artifacts : obtaining insights into industrial application of MDE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mengerink, J.G.M.; Serebrenik, A.; Schiffelers, R.R.H.; van den Brand, M.G.J.

    2017-01-01

    Over the past years, there has been an increase in the application of model driven engineering in industry. Similar to traditional software engineering, understanding how technologies are actually used in practice is essential for developing good tooling, and decision making processes.

  1. Analysing the Severity and Frequency of Traffic Crashes in Riyadh City Using Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Altwaijri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic crashes in Riyadh city cause losses in the form of deaths, injuries and property damages, in addition to the pain and social tragedy affecting families of the victims. In 2005, there were a total of 47,341 injury traffic crashes occurred in Riyadh city (19% of the total KSA crashes and 9% of those crashes were severe. Road safety in Riyadh city may have been adversely affected by: high car ownership, migration of people to Riyadh city, high daily trips reached about 6 million, high rate of income, low-cost of petrol, drivers from different nationalities, young drivers and tremendous growth in population which creates a high level of mobility and transport activities in the city. The primary objective of this paper is therefore to explore factors affecting the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city using appropriate statistical models aiming to establish effective safety policies ready to be implemented to reduce the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city. Crash data for Riyadh city were collected from the Higher Commission for the Development of Riyadh (HCDR for a period of five years from 1425H to 1429H (roughly corresponding to 2004-2008. Crash data were classified into three categories: fatal, serious-injury and slight-injury. Two nominal response models have been developed: a standard multinomial logit model (MNL and a mixed logit model to injury-related crash data. Due to a severe underreporting problem on the slight injury crashes binary and mixed binary logistic regression models were also estimated for two categories of severity: fatal and serious crashes. For frequency, two count models such as Negative Binomial (NB models were employed and the unit of analysis was 168 HAIs (wards in Riyadh city. Ward-level crash data are disaggregated by severity of the crash (such as fatal and serious injury crashes. The results from both multinomial and binary response models are found to be fairly consistent but

  2. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  3. Multicollinearity in prognostic factor analyses using the EORTC QLQ-C30: identification and impact on model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Steen, Kristel; Curran, Desmond; Kramer, Jocelyn; Molenberghs, Geert; Van Vreckem, Ann; Bottomley, Andrew; Sylvester, Richard

    2002-12-30

    Clinical and quality of life (QL) variables from an EORTC clinical trial of first line chemotherapy in advanced breast cancer were used in a prognostic factor analysis of survival and response to chemotherapy. For response, different final multivariate models were obtained from forward and backward selection methods, suggesting a disconcerting instability. Quality of life was measured using the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire completed by patients. Subscales on the questionnaire are known to be highly correlated, and therefore it was hypothesized that multicollinearity contributed to model instability. A correlation matrix indicated that global QL was highly correlated with 7 out of 11 variables. In a first attempt to explore multicollinearity, we used global QL as dependent variable in a regression model with other QL subscales as predictors. Afterwards, standard diagnostic tests for multicollinearity were performed. An exploratory principal components analysis and factor analysis of the QL subscales identified at most three important components and indicated that inclusion of global QL made minimal difference to the loadings on each component, suggesting that it is redundant in the model. In a second approach, we advocate a bootstrap technique to assess the stability of the models. Based on these analyses and since global QL exacerbates problems of multicollinearity, we therefore recommend that global QL be excluded from prognostic factor analyses using the QLQ-C30. The prognostic factor analysis was rerun without global QL in the model, and selected the same significant prognostic factors as before. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Evaluation and Improvement of Cloud and Convective Parameterizations from Analyses of ARM Observations and Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Genio, Anthony D. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)

    2016-03-11

    Over this period the PI and his performed a broad range of data analysis, model evaluation, and model improvement studies using ARM data. These included cloud regimes in the TWP and their evolution over the MJO; M-PACE IOP SCM-CRM intercomparisons; simulations of convective updraft strength and depth during TWP-ICE; evaluation of convective entrainment parameterizations using TWP-ICE simulations; evaluation of GISS GCM cloud behavior vs. long-term SGP cloud statistics; classification of aerosol semi-direct effects on cloud cover; depolarization lidar constraints on cloud phase; preferred states of the winter Arctic atmosphere, surface, and sub-surface; sensitivity of convection to tropospheric humidity; constraints on the parameterization of mesoscale organization from TWP-ICE WRF simulations; updraft and downdraft properties in TWP-ICE simulated convection; insights from long-term ARM records at Manus and Nauru.

  5. Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatization on electricity investment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, D.W.; Larsen, E.R.; Vlahos, K. (London Business School (United Kingdom))

    1993-10-01

    Through the impacts of higher required rates of return, debt, taxation changes and a new competitive structure for the industry, investment in electricity generating capacity has taken a shift to less capital-intensive technologies in the UK. This paper reports on the use of large-scale, long-term capacity planning models, of both an optimization and system dynamics nature, to reflect these separate factors, investigate their sensitivities and to generate future scenarios for the investment in the industry. Some new policy implications for the regulation of the industry become apparent, but the main focus of the paper is to develop some of the methodological changes required by the planning models to suit the privatized context. (Author)

  6. Modeling Freight Ocean Rail and Truck Transportation Flows to Support Policy Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wang, Hao [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Xu, Ningxiong [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP, is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade; hence it is important that our national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently and embodies user fees and other policies that balance costs and environmental consequences. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail and truck modes which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. This model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the maritime ports at Los Angeles/Long Beach similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.

  7. MONTE CARLO ANALYSES OF THE YALINA THERMAL FACILITY WITH SERPENT STEREOLITHOGRAPHY GEOMETRY MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talamo, A.; Gohar, Y.

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the YALINA Thermal subcritical assembly of Belarus using two different Monte Carlo transport programs, SERPENT and MCNP. The MCNP model is based on combinatorial geometry and universes hierarchy, while the SERPENT model is based on Stereolithography geometry. The latter consists of unstructured triangulated surfaces defined by the normal and vertices. This geometry format is used by 3D printers and it has been created by: the CUBIT software, MATLAB scripts, and C coding. All the Monte Carlo simulations have been performed using the ENDF/B-VII.0 nuclear data library. Both MCNP and SERPENT share the same geometry specifications, which describe the facility details without using any material homogenization. Three different configurations have been studied with different number of fuel rods. The three fuel configurations use 216, 245, or 280 fuel rods, respectively. The numerical simulations show that the agreement between SERPENT and MCNP results is within few tens of pcms.

  8. Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

  9. Analysing the strength of friction stir welded dissimilar aluminium alloys using Sugeno Fuzzy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barath, V. R.; Vaira Vignesh, R.; Padmanaban, R.

    2018-02-01

    Friction stir welding (FSW) is a promising solid state joining technique for aluminium alloys. In this study, FSW trials were conducted on two dissimilar plates of aluminium alloy AA2024 and AA7075 by varying the tool rotation speed (TRS) and welding speed (WS). Tensile strength (TS) of the joints were measured and a Sugeno - Fuzzy model was developed to interconnect the FSW process parameters with the tensile strength. From the developed model, it was observed that the optimum heat generation at WS of 15 mm.min-1 and TRS of 1050 rpm resulted in dynamic recovery and dynamic recrystallization of the material. This refined the grains in the FSW zone and resulted in peak tensile strength among the tested specimens. Crest parabolic trend was observed in tensile strength with variation of TRS from 900 rpm to 1200 rpm and TTS from 10 mm.min-1 to 20 mm.min-1.

  10. Analyses of the energy-dependent single separable potential models for the NN scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, S.S.; Beghi, L.

    1981-08-01

    Starting from a systematic study of the salient features regarding the quantum-mechanical two-particle scattering off an energy-dependent (ED) single separable potential and its connection with the rank-2 energy-independent (EI) separable potential in the T-(K-) amplitude formulation, the present status of the ED single separable potential models due to Tabakin (M1), Garcilazo (M2) and Ahmad (M3) has been discussed. It turned out that the incorporation of a self-consistent optimization procedure improves considerably the results of the 1 S 0 and 3 S 1 scattering phase shifts for the models (M2) and (M3) up to the CM wave number q=2.5 fm -1 , although the extrapolation of the results up to q=10 fm -1 reveals that the two models follow the typical behaviour of the well-known super-soft core potentials. It has been found that a variant of (M3) - i.e. (M4) involving one more parameter - gives the phase shifts results which are generally in excellent agreement with the data up to q=2.5 fm -1 and the extrapolation of the results for the 1 S 0 case in the higher wave number range not only follows the corresponding data qualitatively but also reflects a behaviour similar to the Reid soft core and Hamada-Johnston potentials together with a good agreement with the recent [4/3] Pade fits. A brief discussion regarding the features resulting from the variations in the ED parts of all the four models under consideration and their correlations with the inverse scattering theory methodology concludes the paper. (author)

  11. Analyses of Spring Barley Evapotranspiration Rates Based on Gradient Measurements and Dual Crop Coefficient Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pozníková, Gabriela; Fischer, Milan; Pohanková, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 5 (2014), s. 1079-1086 ISSN 1211-8516 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12037; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : evapotranspiration * dual crop coefficient model * Bowen ratio/energy balance method * transpiration * soil evaporation * spring barley Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

  12. Modeling and analyses of postulated UF6 release accidents in gaseous diffusion plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Keith, K.D.; Schmidt, R.W.; Carter, J.C.; Dyer, R.H.

    1995-10-01

    Computer models have been developed to simulate the transient behavior of aerosols and vapors as a result of a postulated accident involving the release of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) into the process building of a gaseous diffusion plant. UF 6 undergoes an exothermic chemical reaction with moisture (H 2 O) in the air to form hydrogen fluoride (HF) and radioactive uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ). As part of a facility-wide safety evaluation, this study evaluated source terms consisting of UO 2 F 2 as well as HF during a postulated UF 6 release accident in a process building. In the postulated accident scenario, ∼7900 kg (17,500 lb) of hot UF 6 vapor is released over a 5 min period from the process piping into the atmosphere of a large process building. UO 2 F 2 mainly remains as airborne-solid particles (aerosols), and HF is in a vapor form. Some UO 2 F 2 aerosols are removed from the air flow due to gravitational settling. The HF and the remaining UO 2 F 2 are mixed with air and exhausted through the building ventilation system. The MELCOR computer code was selected for simulating aerosols and vapor transport in the process building. MELCOR model was first used to develop a single volume representation of a process building and its results were compared with those from past lumped parameter models specifically developed for studying UF 6 release accidents. Preliminary results indicate that MELCOR predicted results (using a lumped formulation) are comparable with those from previously developed models

  13. Models and error analyses of measuring instruments in accountability systems in safeguards control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dattatreya, E.S.

    1977-05-01

    Essentially three types of measuring instruments are used in plutonium accountability systems: (1) the bubblers, for measuring the total volume of liquid in the holding tanks, (2) coulometers, titration apparatus and calorimeters, for measuring the concentration of plutonium; and (3) spectrometers, for measuring isotopic composition. These three classes of instruments are modeled and analyzed. Finally, the uncertainty in the estimation of total plutonium in the holding tank is determined

  14. Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models

    OpenAIRE

    Auping, W.; Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In order to create insight in this systems behaviour in the coming 40 years, an Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis study was performed. T...

  15. Stability, convergence and Hopf bifurcation analyses of the classical car-following model

    OpenAIRE

    Kamath, Gopal Krishna; Jagannathan, Krishna; Raina, Gaurav

    2016-01-01

    Reaction delays play an important role in determining the qualitative dynamical properties of a platoon of vehicles traversing a straight road. In this paper, we investigate the impact of delayed feedback on the dynamics of the Classical Car-Following Model (CCFM). Specifically, we analyze the CCFM in no delay, small delay and arbitrary delay regimes. First, we derive a sufficient condition for local stability of the CCFM in no-delay and small-delay regimes using. Next, we derive the necessar...

  16. Transformation of Baumgarten's aesthetics into a tool for analysing works and for modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Bente Dahl

    2006-01-01

      Abstract: Is this the best form, or does it need further work? The aesthetic object does not possess the perfect qualities; but how do I proceed with the form? These are questions that all modellers ask themselves at some point, and with which they can grapple for days - even weeks - before the......, or convince him-/herself about its strengths. The cards also contain aesthetical reflections that may be of inspiration in the development of the form....

  17. Large-scale inverse model analyses employing fast randomized data reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Youzuo; Le, Ellen B.; O'Malley, Daniel; Vesselinov, Velimir V.; Bui-Thanh, Tan

    2017-08-01

    When the number of observations is large, it is computationally challenging to apply classical inverse modeling techniques. We have developed a new computationally efficient technique for solving inverse problems with a large number of observations (e.g., on the order of 107 or greater). Our method, which we call the randomized geostatistical approach (RGA), is built upon the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). We employ a data reduction technique combined with the PCGA to improve the computational efficiency and reduce the memory usage. Specifically, we employ a randomized numerical linear algebra technique based on a so-called "sketching" matrix to effectively reduce the dimension of the observations without losing the information content needed for the inverse analysis. In this way, the computational and memory costs for RGA scale with the information content rather than the size of the calibration data. Our algorithm is coded in Julia and implemented in the MADS open-source high-performance computational framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). We apply our new inverse modeling method to invert for a synthetic transmissivity field. Compared to a standard geostatistical approach (GA), our method is more efficient when the number of observations is large. Most importantly, our method is capable of solving larger inverse problems than the standard GA and PCGA approaches. Therefore, our new model inversion method is a powerful tool for solving large-scale inverse problems. The method can be applied in any field and is not limited to hydrogeological applications such as the characterization of aquifer heterogeneity.

  18. Distributed organization of a brain microcircuit analysed by three-dimensional modeling: the olfactory bulb

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele eMigliore

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The functional consequences of the laminar organization observed in cortical systems cannot be easily studied using standard experimental techniques, abstract theoretical representations, or dimensionally reduced models built from scratch. To solve this problem we have developed a full implementation of an olfactory bulb microcircuit using realistic three-dimensional inputs, cell morphologies, and network connectivity. The results provide new insights into the relations between the functional properties of individual cells and the networks in which they are embedded. To our knowledge, this is the first model of the mitral-granule cell network to include a realistic representation of the experimentally-recorded complex spatial patterns elicited in the glomerular layer by natural odor stimulation. Although the olfactory bulb, due to its organization, has unique advantages with respect to other brain systems, the method is completely general, and can be integrated with more general approaches to other systems. The model makes experimentally testable predictions on distributed processing and on the differential backpropagation of somatic action potentials in each lateral dendrite following odor learning, providing a powerful three-dimensional framework for investigating the functions of brain microcircuits.

  19. Drying of mint leaves in a solar dryer and under open sun: Modelling, performance analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akpinar, E. Kavak

    2010-01-01

    In this study was investigated the thin-layer drying characteristics in solar dryer with forced convection and under open sun with natural convection of mint leaves, and, performed energy analysis and exergy analysis of solar drying process of mint leaves. An indirect forced convection solar dryer consisting of a solar air collector and drying cabinet was used in the experiments. The drying data were fitted to ten the different mathematical models. Among the models, Wang and Singh model for the forced solar drying and the natural sun drying were found to best explain thin-layer drying behaviour of mint leaves. Using the first law of thermodynamics, the energy analysis throughout solar drying process was estimated. However, exergy analysis during solar drying process was determined by applying the second law of thermodynamics. Energy utilization ratio (EUR) values of drying cabinet varied in the ranges between 7.826% and 46.285%. The values of exergetic efficiency were found to be in the range of 34.760-87.717%. The values of improvement potential varied between 0 and 0.017 kJ s -1 . Energy utilization ratio and improvement potential decreased with increasing drying time and ambient temperature while exergetic efficiency increased.

  20. Bag-model analyses of proton-antiproton scattering and atomic bound states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberg, M.A.; Freedman, R.A.; Henley, E.M.; Hwang, W.P.; Seckel, D.; Wilets, L.

    1983-01-01

    We study proton-antiproton (pp-bar ) scattering using the static real potential of Bryan and Phillips outside a cutoff radius rsub0 and two different shapes for the imaginary potential inside a radius R*. These forms, motivated by bag models, are a one-gluon-annihilation potential and a simple geometric-overlap form. In both cases there are three adjustable parameters: the effective bag radius R*, the effective strong coupling constant αsubssup*, and rsub0. There is also a choice for the form of the real potential inside the cutoff radius rsub0. Analysis of the pp-bar scattering data in the laboratory-momentum region 0.4--0.7 GeV/c yields an effective nucleon bag radius R* in the range 0.6--1.1 fm, with the best fit obtained for R* = 0.86 fm. Arguments are presented that the deduced value of R* is likely to be an upper bound on the isolated nucleon bag radius. The present results are consistent with the range of bag radii in current bag models. We have also used the resultant optical potential to calculate the shifts and widths of the sup3Ssub1 and sup1Ssub0 atomic bound states of the pp-bar system. For both states we find upward (repulsive) shifts and widths of about 1 keV. We find no evidence for narrow, strongly bound pp-bar states in our potential model

  1. Preliminary sensitivity analyses of corrosion models for BWIP [Basalt Waste Isolation Project] container materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anantatmula, R.P.

    1984-01-01

    A preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed for the corrosion models developed for Basalt Waste Isolation Project container materials. The models describe corrosion behavior of the candidate container materials (low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo), in various environments that are expected in the vicinity of the waste package, by separate equations. The present sensitivity analysis yields an uncertainty in total uniform corrosion on the basis of assumed uncertainties in the parameters comprising the corrosion equations. Based on the sample scenario and the preliminary corrosion models, the uncertainty in total uniform corrosion of low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo for the 1000 yr containment period are 20% and 15%, respectively. For containment periods ≥ 1000 yr, the uncertainty in corrosion during the post-closure aqueous periods controls the uncertainty in total uniform corrosion for both low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo. The key parameters controlling the corrosion behavior of candidate container materials are temperature, radiation, groundwater species, etc. Tests are planned in the Basalt Waste Isolation Project containment materials test program to determine in detail the sensitivity of corrosion to these parameters. We also plan to expand the sensitivity analysis to include sensitivity coefficients and other parameters in future studies. 6 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

  2. A model for asymmetric ballooning and analyses of ballooning behaviour of single rods with probabilistic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keusenhoff, J.G.; Schubert, J.D.; Chakraborty, A.K.

    1985-01-01

    Plastic deformation behaviour of Zircaloy cladding has been extensively examined in the past and can be described best by a model for asymmetric deformation. Slight displacement between the pellet and cladding will always exist and this will lead to the formation of azimuthal temperature differences. The ballooning process is strongly temperature dependent and, as a result of the built up temperature differences, differing deformation behaviours along the circumference of the cladding result. The calculated ballooning of cladding is mainly influenced by its temperature, the applied burst criterion and the parameters used in the deformation model. All these influencing parameters possess uncertainties. In order to quantify these uncertainties and to estimate distribution functions of important parameters such as temperature and deformation the response surface method was applied. For a hot rod the calculated standard deviation of cladding temperature amounts to 50 K. From this high value the large influence of the external cooling conditions on the deformation and burst behaviour of cladding can be estimated. In an additional statistical examination the parameters of deformation and burst models have been included and their influence on the deformation of the rod has been studied. (author)

  3. Analysing black phosphorus transistors using an analytic Schottky barrier MOSFET model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penumatcha, Ashish V; Salazar, Ramon B; Appenzeller, Joerg

    2015-11-13

    Owing to the difficulties associated with substitutional doping of low-dimensional nanomaterials, most field-effect transistors built from carbon nanotubes, two-dimensional crystals and other low-dimensional channels are Schottky barrier MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors). The transmission through a Schottky barrier-MOSFET is dominated by the gate-dependent transmission through the Schottky barriers at the metal-to-channel interfaces. This makes the use of conventional transistor models highly inappropriate and has lead researchers in the past frequently to extract incorrect intrinsic properties, for example, mobility, for many novel nanomaterials. Here we propose a simple modelling approach to quantitatively describe the transfer characteristics of Schottky barrier-MOSFETs from ultra-thin body materials accurately in the device off-state. In particular, after validating the model through the analysis of a set of ultra-thin silicon field-effect transistor data, we have successfully applied our approach to extract Schottky barrier heights for electrons and holes in black phosphorus devices for a large range of body thicknesses.

  4. Thermal conductivity degradation analyses of LWR MOX fuel by the quasi-two phase material model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosaka, Yuji; Kurematsu, Shigeru; Kitagawa, Takaaki; Suzuki, Akihiro; Terai, Takayuki

    2012-01-01

    The temperature measurements of mixed oxide (MOX) and UO 2 fuels during irradiation suggested that the thermal conductivity degradation rate of the MOX fuel with burnup should be slower than that of the UO 2 fuel. In order to explain the difference of the degradation rates, the quasi-two phase material model is proposed to assess the thermal conductivity degradation of the MIMAS MOX fuel, which takes into account the Pu agglomerate distributions in the MOX fuel matrix as fabricated. As a result, the quasi-two phase model calculation shows the gradual increase of the difference with burnup and may expect more than 10% higher thermal conductivity values around 75 GWd/t. While these results are not fully suitable for thermal conductivity degradation models implemented by some industrial fuel manufacturers, they are consistent with the results from the irradiation tests and indicate that the inhomogeneity of Pu content in the MOX fuel can be one of the major reasons for the moderation of the thermal conductivity degradation of the MOX fuel. (author)

  5. Analysing the origin of long-range interactions in proteins using lattice models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Unger Ron

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Long-range communication is very common in proteins but the physical basis of this phenomenon remains unclear. In order to gain insight into this problem, we decided to explore whether long-range interactions exist in lattice models of proteins. Lattice models of proteins have proven to capture some of the basic properties of real proteins and, thus, can be used for elucidating general principles of protein stability and folding. Results Using a computational version of double-mutant cycle analysis, we show that long-range interactions emerge in lattice models even though they are not an input feature of them. The coupling energy of both short- and long-range pairwise interactions is found to become more positive (destabilizing in a linear fashion with increasing 'contact-frequency', an entropic term that corresponds to the fraction of states in the conformational ensemble of the sequence in which the pair of residues is in contact. A mathematical derivation of the linear dependence of the coupling energy on 'contact-frequency' is provided. Conclusion Our work shows how 'contact-frequency' should be taken into account in attempts to stabilize proteins by introducing (or stabilizing contacts in the native state and/or through 'negative design' of non-native contacts.

  6. A new compact solid-state neutral particle analyser at ASDEX Upgrade: Setup and physics modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, P. A.; Blank, H.; Geiger, B.; Mank, K.; Martinov, S.; Ryter, F.; Weiland, M.; Weller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    At ASDEX Upgrade (AUG), a new compact solid-state detector has been installed to measure the energy spectrum of fast neutrals based on the principle described by Shinohara et al. [Rev. Sci. Instrum. 75, 3640 (2004)]. The diagnostic relies on the usual charge exchange of supra-thermal fast-ions with neutrals in the plasma. Therefore, the measured energy spectra directly correspond to those of confined fast-ions with a pitch angle defined by the line of sight of the detector. Experiments in AUG showed the good signal to noise characteristics of the detector. It is energy calibrated and can measure energies of 40-200 keV with count rates of up to 140 kcps. The detector has an active view on one of the heating beams. The heating beam increases the neutral density locally; thereby, information about the central fast-ion velocity distribution is obtained. The measured fluxes are modeled with a newly developed module for the 3D Monte Carlo code F90FIDASIM [Geiger et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 53, 65010 (2011)]. The modeling allows to distinguish between the active (beam) and passive contributions to the signal. Thereby, the birth profile of the measured fast neutrals can be reconstructed. This model reproduces the measured energy spectra with good accuracy when the passive contribution is taken into account.

  7. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-10-01

    Model 2 in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. Both the cylinder and the nozzle of model 2 had outside diameters of 10 in., giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 1.0, and both had outside diameter/thickness ratios of 100. Sixteen separate loading cases in which one end of the cylinder was rigidly held were analyzed. An internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components, and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. In addition to these 13 loadings, 3 additional loads were applied to the nozzle (in-plane bending moment, out-of-plane bending moment, and axial force) with the free end of the cylinder restrained. The experimental stress distributions for each of the 16 loadings were obtained using 152 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. All the 16 loading cases were also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good general agreement, and it is felt that the analysis would be satisfactory for most engineering purposes. (auth)

  8. Reproduction of the Yucca Mountain Project TSPA-LA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses and Preliminary Upgrade of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadgu, Teklu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis; Appel, Gordon John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis

    2016-09-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014) and Hadgu et al. (2015). The TSPA computing hardware (CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the current analysis. One floating license of GoldSim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5 and 11.1.6 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The current tasks included verification of the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and preliminary upgrade of the TSPA-LA from Version 9.60.300 to the latest version 11.1. All the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses modeling cases were successfully tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses used TSPA-LA modeling cases output generated in FY15 based on GoldSim Version 9.60.300 documented in Hadgu et al. (2015). The model upgrade task successfully converted the Nominal Modeling case to GoldSim Version 11.1. Upgrade of the remaining of the modeling cases and distributed processing tasks will continue. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.

  9. Towards an Industrial Application of Statistical Uncertainty Analysis Methods to Multi-physical Modelling and Safety Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jinzhao; Segurado, Jacobo; Schneidesch, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Since 1980's, Tractebel Engineering (TE) has being developed and applied a multi-physical modelling and safety analyses capability, based on a code package consisting of the best estimate 3D neutronic (PANTHER), system thermal hydraulic (RELAP5), core sub-channel thermal hydraulic (COBRA-3C), and fuel thermal mechanic (FRAPCON/FRAPTRAN) codes. A series of methodologies have been developed to perform and to license the reactor safety analysis and core reload design, based on the deterministic bounding approach. Following the recent trends in research and development as well as in industrial applications, TE has been working since 2010 towards the application of the statistical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods to the multi-physical modelling and licensing safety analyses. In this paper, the TE multi-physical modelling and safety analyses capability is first described, followed by the proposed TE best estimate plus statistical uncertainty analysis method (BESUAM). The chosen statistical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods (non-parametric order statistic method or bootstrap) and tool (DAKOTA) are then presented, followed by some preliminary results of their applications to FRAPCON/FRAPTRAN simulation of OECD RIA fuel rod codes benchmark and RELAP5/MOD3.3 simulation of THTF tests. (authors)

  10. Computational and Statistical Analyses of Insertional Polymorphic Endogenous Retroviruses in a Non-Model Organism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs are a class of transposable elements found in all vertebrate genomes that contribute substantially to genomic functional and structural diversity. A host species acquires an ERV when an exogenous retrovirus infects a germ cell of an individual and becomes part of the genome inherited by viable progeny. ERVs that colonized ancestral lineages are fixed in contemporary species. However, in some extant species, ERV colonization is ongoing, which results in variation in ERV frequency in the population. To study the consequences of ERV colonization of a host genome, methods are needed to assign each ERV to a location in a species’ genome and determine which individuals have acquired each ERV by descent. Because well annotated reference genomes are not widely available for all species, de novo clustering approaches provide an alternative to reference mapping that are insensitive to differences between query and reference and that are amenable to mobile element studies in both model and non-model organisms. However, there is substantial uncertainty in both identifying ERV genomic position and assigning each unique ERV integration site to individuals in a population. We present an analysis suitable for detecting ERV integration sites in species without the need for a reference genome. Our approach is based on improved de novo clustering methods and statistical models that take the uncertainty of assignment into account and yield a probability matrix of shared ERV integration sites among individuals. We demonstrate that polymorphic integrations of a recently identified endogenous retrovirus in deer reflect contemporary relationships among individuals and populations.

  11. Diffusion model analyses of the experimental data of 12C+27Al, 40Ca dissipative collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SHEN Wen-qing; QIAO Wei-min; ZHU Yong-tai; ZHAN Wen-long

    1985-01-01

    Assuming that the intermediate system decays with a statistical lifetime, the general behavior of the threefold differential cross section d 3 tau/dZdEdtheta in the dissipative collisions of 68 MeV 12 C+ 27 Al and 68.6 MeV 12 C+ 40 Ca system is analyzed in the diffusion model framework. The lifetime of the intermediate system and the separation distance for the completely damped deep-inelastic component are obtained. The calculated results and the experimental data of the angular distributions and Wilczynski plots are compared. The probable reasons for the differences between them are briefly discussed

  12. IMPROVEMENTS IN HANFORD TRANSURANIC (TRU) PROGRAM UTILIZING SYSTEMS MODELING AND ANALYSES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    UYTIOCO EM

    2007-01-01

    Hanford's Transuranic (TRU) Program is responsible for certifying contact-handled (CH) TRU waste and shipping the certified waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Hanford's CH TRU waste includes material that is in retrievable storage as well as above ground storage, and newly generated waste. Certifying a typical container entails retrieving and then characterizing it (Real-Time Radiography, Non-Destructive Assay, and Head Space Gas Sampling), validating records (data review and reconciliation), and designating the container for a payload. The certified payload is then shipped to WIPP. Systems modeling and analysis techniques were applied to Hanford's TRU Program to help streamline the certification process and increase shipping rates

  13. Water requirements of short rotation poplar coppice: Experimental and modelling analyses across Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fischer, Milan; Zenone, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Orság, Matěj; Montagnani, L.; Ward, E. J.; Tripathi, Abishek; Hlavinka, Petr; Seufert, G.; Žalud, Zdeněk; King, J.; Ceulemans, R.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 250, MAR (2018), s. 343-360 ISSN 0168-1923 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : energy-balance closure * dual crop coefficient * radiation use efficiency * simulate yield response * below-ground carbon * vs. 2nd rotation * flux data * biomass production * forest model * stand-scale * Bioenergy * Bowen ratio and energy balance * Crop coefficient * Eddy covariance * Evapotranspiration * Water balance Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy OBOR OECD: Agriculture Impact factor: 3.887, year: 2016

  14. Domain analyses of Usher syndrome causing Clarin-1 and GPR98 protein models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sehrish Haider; Javed, Muhammad Rizwan; Qasim, Muhammad; Shahzadi, Samar; Jalil, Asma; Rehman, Shahid Ur

    2014-01-01

    Usher syndrome is an autosomal recessive disorder that causes hearing loss, Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP) and vestibular dysfunction. It is clinically and genetically heterogeneous disorder which is clinically divided into three types i.e. type I, type II and type III. To date, there are about twelve loci and ten identified genes which are associated with Usher syndrome. A mutation in any of these genes e.g. CDH23, CLRN1, GPR98, MYO7A, PCDH15, USH1C, USH1G, USH2A and DFNB31 can result in Usher syndrome or non-syndromic deafness. These genes provide instructions for making proteins that play important roles in normal hearing, balance and vision. Studies have shown that protein structures of only seven genes have been determined experimentally and there are still three genes whose structures are unavailable. These genes are Clarin-1, GPR98 and Usherin. In the absence of an experimentally determined structure, homology modeling and threading often provide a useful 3D model of a protein. Therefore in the current study Clarin-1 and GPR98 proteins have been analyzed for signal peptide, domains and motifs. Clarin-1 protein was found to be without any signal peptide and consists of prokar lipoprotein domain. Clarin-1 is classified within claudin 2 super family and consists of twelve motifs. Whereas, GPR98 has a 29 amino acids long signal peptide and classified within GPCR family 2 having Concanavalin A-like lectin/glucanase superfamily. It was found to be consists of GPS and G protein receptor F2 domains and twenty nine motifs. Their 3D structures have been predicted using I-TASSER server. The model of Clarin-1 showed only α-helix but no beta sheets while model of GPR98 showed both α-helix and β sheets. The predicted structures were then evaluated and validated by MolProbity and Ramachandran plot. The evaluation of the predicted structures showed 78.9% residues of Clarin-1 and 78.9% residues of GPR98 within favored regions. The findings of present study has resulted in the

  15. Analyses of Methods and Algorithms for Modelling and Optimization of Biotechnological Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stoyan Stoyanov

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available A review of the problems in modeling, optimization and control of biotechnological processes and systems is given in this paper. An analysis of existing and some new practical optimization methods for searching global optimum based on various advanced strategies - heuristic, stochastic, genetic and combined are presented in the paper. Methods based on the sensitivity theory, stochastic and mix strategies for optimization with partial knowledge about kinetic, technical and economic parameters in optimization problems are discussed. Several approaches for the multi-criteria optimization tasks are analyzed. The problems concerning optimal controls of biotechnological systems are also discussed.

  16. A Conceptual Model for Analysing Collaborative Work and Products in Groupware Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Rafael; Bravo, Crescencio; Ortega, Manuel

    Collaborative work using groupware systems is a dynamic process in which many tasks, in different application domains, are carried out. Currently, one of the biggest challenges in the field of CSCW (Computer-Supported Cooperative Work) research is to establish conceptual models which allow for the analysis of collaborative activities and their resulting products. In this article, we propose an ontology that conceptualizes the required elements which enable an analysis to infer a set of analysis indicators, thus evaluating both the individual and group work and the artefacts which are produced.

  17. The variants of an LOD of a 3D building model and their influence on spatial analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biljecki, Filip; Ledoux, Hugo; Stoter, Jantien; Vosselman, George

    2016-06-01

    The level of detail (LOD) of a 3D city model indicates the model's grade and usability. However, there exist multiple valid variants of each LOD. As a consequence, the LOD concept is inconclusive as an instruction for the acquisition of 3D city models. For instance, the top surface of an LOD1 block model may be modelled at the eaves of a building or at its ridge height. Such variants, which we term geometric references, are often overlooked and are usually not documented in the metadata. Furthermore, the influence of a particular geometric reference on the performance of a spatial analysis is not known. In response to this research gap, we investigate a variety of LOD1 and LOD2 geometric references that are commonly employed, and perform numerical experiments to investigate their relative difference when used as input for different spatial analyses. We consider three use cases (estimation of the area of the building envelope, building volume, and shadows cast by buildings), and compute the deviations in a Monte Carlo simulation. The experiments, carried out with procedurally generated models, indicate that two 3D models representing the same building at the same LOD, but modelled according to different geometric references, may yield substantially different results when used in a spatial analysis. The outcome of our experiments also suggests that the geometric reference may have a bigger influence than the LOD, since an LOD1 with a specific geometric reference may yield a more accurate result than when using LOD2 models.

  18. Integration of 3d Models and Diagnostic Analyses Through a Conservation-Oriented Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandelli, A.; Achille, C.; Tommasi, C.; Fassi, F.

    2017-08-01

    In the recent years, mature technologies for producing high quality virtual 3D replicas of Cultural Heritage (CH) artefacts has grown thanks to the progress of Information Technologies (IT) tools. These methods are an efficient way to present digital models that can be used with several scopes: heritage managing, support to conservation, virtual restoration, reconstruction and colouring, art cataloguing and visual communication. The work presented is an emblematic case of study oriented to the preventive conservation through monitoring activities, using different acquisition methods and instruments. It was developed inside a project founded by Lombardy Region, Italy, called "Smart Culture", which was aimed to realise a platform that gave the users the possibility to easily access to the CH artefacts, using as an example a very famous statue. The final product is a 3D reality-based model that contains a lot of information inside it, and that can be consulted through a common web browser. In the end, it was possible to define the general strategies oriented to the maintenance and the valorisation of CH artefacts, which, in this specific case, must consider the integration of different techniques and competencies, to obtain a complete, accurate and continuative monitoring of the statue.

  19. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  20. Why weight? Modelling sample and observational level variability improves power in RNA-seq analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruijie; Holik, Aliaksei Z; Su, Shian; Jansz, Natasha; Chen, Kelan; Leong, Huei San; Blewitt, Marnie E; Asselin-Labat, Marie-Liesse; Smyth, Gordon K; Ritchie, Matthew E

    2015-09-03

    Variations in sample quality are frequently encountered in small RNA-sequencing experiments, and pose a major challenge in a differential expression analysis. Removal of high variation samples reduces noise, but at a cost of reducing power, thus limiting our ability to detect biologically meaningful changes. Similarly, retaining these samples in the analysis may not reveal any statistically significant changes due to the higher noise level. A compromise is to use all available data, but to down-weight the observations from more variable samples. We describe a statistical approach that facilitates this by modelling heterogeneity at both the sample and observational levels as part of the differential expression analysis. At the sample level this is achieved by fitting a log-linear variance model that includes common sample-specific or group-specific parameters that are shared between genes. The estimated sample variance factors are then converted to weights and combined with observational level weights obtained from the mean-variance relationship of the log-counts-per-million using 'voom'. A comprehensive analysis involving both simulations and experimental RNA-sequencing data demonstrates that this strategy leads to a universally more powerful analysis and fewer false discoveries when compared to conventional approaches. This methodology has wide application and is implemented in the open-source 'limma' package. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  1. Innovative three-dimensional neutronics analyses directly coupled with cad models of geometrically complex fusion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawan, M.; Wilson, P.; El-Guebaly, L.; Henderson, D.; Sviatoslavsky, G.; Bohm, T.; Kiedrowski, B.; Ibrahim, A.; Smith, B.; Slaybaugh, R.; Tautges, T.

    2007-01-01

    Fusion systems are, in general, geometrically complex requiring detailed three-dimensional (3-D) nuclear analysis. This analysis is required to address tritium self-sufficiency, nuclear heating, radiation damage, shielding, and radiation streaming issues. To facilitate such calculations, we developed an innovative computational tool that is based on the continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP and permits the direct use of CAD-based solid models in the ray-tracing. This allows performing the neutronics calculations in a model that preserves the geometrical details without any simplification, eliminates possible human error in modeling the geometry for MCNP, and allows faster design iterations. In addition to improving the work flow for simulating complex 3- D geometries, it allows a richer representation of the geometry compared to the standard 2nd order polynomial representation. This newly developed tool has been successfully tested for a detailed 40 degree sector benchmark of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The calculations included determining the poloidal variation of the neutron wall loading, flux and nuclear heating in the divertor components, nuclear heating in toroidal field coils, and radiation streaming in the mid-plane port. The tool has been applied to perform 3-D nuclear analysis for several fusion designs including the ARIES Compact Stellarator (ARIES-CS), the High Average Power Laser (HAPL) inertial fusion power plant, and ITER first wall/shield (FWS) modules. The ARIES-CS stellarator has a first wall shape and a plasma profile that varies toroidally within each field period compared to the uniform toroidal shape in tokamaks. Such variation cannot be modeled analytically in the standard MCNP code. The impact of the complex helical geometry and the non-uniform blanket and divertor on the overall tritium breeding ratio and total nuclear heating was determined. In addition, we calculated the neutron wall loading variation in

  2. A model using marginal efficiency of investment to analyse carbon and nitrogen interactions in forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. Q.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles are coupled in terrestrial ecosystems through multiple processes including photosynthesis, tissue allocation, respiration, N fixation, N uptake, and decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. Capturing the constraint of N on terrestrial C uptake and storage has been a focus of the Earth System modelling community. Here we explore the trade-offs and sensitivities of allocating C and N to different tissues in order to optimize the productivity of plants using a new, simple model of ecosystem C-N cycling and interactions (ACONITE). ACONITE builds on theory related to plant economics in order to predict key ecosystem properties (leaf area index, leaf C:N, N fixation, and plant C use efficiency) based on the optimization of the marginal change in net C or N uptake associated with a change in allocation of C or N to plant tissues. We simulated and evaluated steady-state and transient ecosystem stocks and fluxes in three different forest ecosystems types (tropical evergreen, temperate deciduous, and temperate evergreen). Leaf C:N differed among the three ecosystem types (temperate deciduous database describing plant traits. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) estimates compared well to observed fluxes at the simulation sites. A sensitivity analysis revealed that parameterization of the relationship between leaf N and leaf respiration had the largest influence on leaf area index and leaf C:N. Also, a widely used linear leaf N-respiration relationship did not yield a realistic leaf C:N, while a more recently reported non-linear relationship simulated leaf C:N that compared better to the global trait database than the linear relationship. Overall, our ability to constrain leaf area index and allow spatially and temporally variable leaf C:N can help address challenges simulating these properties in ecosystem and Earth System models. Furthermore, the simple approach with emergent properties based on

  3. Model-based analyses to compare health and economic outcomes of cancer control: inclusion of disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J; Daniels, Norman

    2011-09-21

    Disease simulation models of the health and economic consequences of different prevention and treatment strategies can guide policy decisions about cancer control. However, models that also consider health disparities can identify strategies that improve both population health and its equitable distribution. We devised a typology of cancer disparities that considers types of inequalities among black, white, and Hispanic populations across different cancers and characteristics important for near-term policy discussions. We illustrated the typology in the specific example of cervical cancer using an existing disease simulation model calibrated to clinical, epidemiological, and cost data for the United States. We calculated average reduction in cancer incidence overall and for black, white, and Hispanic women under five different prevention strategies (Strategies A1, A2, A3, B, and C) and estimated average costs and life expectancy per woman, and the cost-effectiveness ratio for each strategy. Strategies that may provide greater aggregate health benefit than existing options may also exacerbate disparities. Combining human papillomavirus vaccination (Strategy A2) with current cervical cancer screening patterns (Strategy A1) resulted in an average reduction of 69% in cancer incidence overall but a 71.6% reduction for white women, 68.3% for black women, and 63.9% for Hispanic women. Other strategies targeting risk-based screening to racial and ethnic minorities reduced disparities among racial subgroups and resulted in more equitable distribution of benefits among subgroups (reduction in cervical cancer incidence, white vs. Hispanic women, 69.7% vs. 70.1%). Strategies that employ targeted risk-based screening and new screening algorithms, with or without vaccination (Strategies B and C), provide excellent value. The most effective strategy (Strategy C) had a cost-effectiveness ratio of $28,200 per year of life saved when compared with the same strategy without

  4. A review on design of experiments and surrogate models in aircraft real-time and many-query aerodynamic analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yondo, Raul; Andrés, Esther; Valero, Eusebio

    2018-01-01

    Full scale aerodynamic wind tunnel testing, numerical simulation of high dimensional (full-order) aerodynamic models or flight testing are some of the fundamental but complex steps in the various design phases of recent civil transport aircrafts. Current aircraft aerodynamic designs have increase in complexity (multidisciplinary, multi-objective or multi-fidelity) and need to address the challenges posed by the nonlinearity of the objective functions and constraints, uncertainty quantification in aerodynamic problems or the restrained computational budgets. With the aim to reduce the computational burden and generate low-cost but accurate models that mimic those full order models at different values of the design variables, Recent progresses have witnessed the introduction, in real-time and many-query analyses, of surrogate-based approaches as rapid and cheaper to simulate models. In this paper, a comprehensive and state-of-the art survey on common surrogate modeling techniques and surrogate-based optimization methods is given, with an emphasis on models selection and validation, dimensionality reduction, sensitivity analyses, constraints handling or infill and stopping criteria. Benefits, drawbacks and comparative discussions in applying those methods are described. Furthermore, the paper familiarizes the readers with surrogate models that have been successfully applied to the general field of fluid dynamics, but not yet in the aerospace industry. Additionally, the review revisits the most popular sampling strategies used in conducting physical and simulation-based experiments in aircraft aerodynamic design. Attractive or smart designs infrequently used in the field and discussions on advanced sampling methodologies are presented, to give a glance on the various efficient possibilities to a priori sample the parameter space. Closing remarks foster on future perspectives, challenges and shortcomings associated with the use of surrogate models by aircraft industrial

  5. Use of model analysis to analyse Thai students’ attitudes and approaches to physics problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakkapao, S.; Prasitpong, S.

    2018-03-01

    This study applies the model analysis technique to explore the distribution of Thai students’ attitudes and approaches to physics problem solving and how those attitudes and approaches change as a result of different experiences in physics learning. We administered the Attitudes and Approaches to Problem Solving (AAPS) survey to over 700 Thai university students from five different levels, namely students entering science, first-year science students, and second-, third- and fourth-year physics students. We found that their inferred mental states were generally mixed. The largest gap between physics experts and all levels of the students was about the role of equations and formulas in physics problem solving, and in views towards difficult problems. Most participants of all levels believed that being able to handle the mathematics is the most important part of physics problem solving. Most students’ views did not change even though they gained experiences in physics learning.

  6. Statistical Analyses and Modeling of the Implementation of Agile Manufacturing Tactics in Industrial Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad D. AL-Tahat

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review and introduction on agile manufacturing. Tactics of agile manufacturing are mapped into different production areas (eight-construct latent: manufacturing equipment and technology, processes technology and know-how, quality and productivity improvement, production planning and control, shop floor management, product design and development, supplier relationship management, and customer relationship management. The implementation level of agile manufacturing tactics is investigated in each area. A structural equation model is proposed. Hypotheses are formulated. Feedback from 456 firms is collected using five-point-Likert-scale questionnaire. Statistical analysis is carried out using IBM SPSS and AMOS. Multicollinearity, content validity, consistency, construct validity, ANOVA analysis, and relationships between agile components are tested. The results of this study prove that the agile manufacturing tactics have positive effect on the overall agility level. This conclusion can be used by manufacturing firms to manage challenges when trying to be agile.

  7. Analysing improvements to on-street public transport systems: a mesoscopic model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss; Kornerup Jensen, Jonas; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2017-01-01

    and other advanced public transport systems (APTS), the attractiveness of such systems depends heavily on their implementation. In the early planning stage it is advantageous to deploy simple and transparent models to evaluate possible ways of implementation. For this purpose, the present study develops...... headway time regularity and running time variability, i.e. taking into account waiting time and in-vehicle time. The approach was applied on a case study by assessing the effects of implementing segregated infrastructure and APTS elements, individually and in combination. The results showed...... that the reliability of on-street public transport operations mainly depends on APTS elements, and especially holding strategies, whereas pure infrastructure improvements induced travel time reductions. The results further suggested that synergy effects can be obtained by planning on-street public transport coherently...

  8. Biogeochemical Responses and Feedbacks to Climate Change: Synthetic Meta-Analyses Relevant to Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Gestel, Natasja; Jan van Groenigen, Kees; Osenberg, Craig; Dukes, Jeffrey; Dijkstra, Paul

    2018-03-20

    This project examined the sensitivity of carbon in land ecosystems to environmental change, focusing on carbon contained in soil, and the role of carbon-nitrogen interactions in regulating ecosystem carbon storage. The project used a combination of empirical measurements, mathematical models, and statistics to partition effects of climate change on soil into processes enhancing soil carbon and processes through which it decomposes. By synthesizing results from experiments around the world, the work provided novel insight on ecological controls and responses across broad spatial and temporal scales. The project developed new approaches in meta-analysis using principles of element mass balance and large datasets to derive metrics of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The project used meta-analysis to test how nutrients regulate responses of ecosystems to elevated CO2 and warming, in particular responses of nitrogen fixation, critical for regulating long-term C balance.

  9. Analysing pseudoephedrine/methamphetamine policy options in Australia using multi-criteria decision modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Matthew; Wong, Gabriel T W; Ransley, Janet; Smith, Christine

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we capture and synthesize the unique knowledge of experts so that choices regarding policy measures to address methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia can be strengthened. We examine perceptions of the: (1) influence of underlying factors that impact on the methamphetamine problem; (2) importance of various models of intervention that have the potential to affect the success of policies; and (3) efficacy of alternative pseudoephedrine policy options. We adopt a multi-criteria decision model to unpack factors that affect decisions made by experts and examine potential variations on weight/preference among groups. Seventy experts from five groups (i.e. academia (18.6%), government and policy (27.1%), health (18.6%), pharmaceutical (17.1%) and police (18.6%)) in Australia participated in the survey. Social characteristics are considered the most important underlying factor, prevention the most effective strategy and Project STOP the most preferred policy option with respect to reducing methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia. One-way repeated ANOVAs indicate a statistically significant difference with regards to the influence of underlying factors (F(2.3, 144.5)=11.256, pmethamphetamine consumption and dependency. Most experts support the use of preventative mechanisms to inhibit drug initiation and delayed drug uptake. Compared to other policies, Project STOP (which aims to disrupt the initial diversion of pseudoephedrine) appears to be a more preferable preventative mechanism to control the production and subsequent sale and use of methamphetamine. This regulatory civil law lever engages third parties in controlling drug-related crime. The literature supports third-party partnerships as it engages experts who have knowledge and expertise with respect to prevention and harm minimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

    2017-09-01

    Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

  11. Cutting Edge PBPK Models and Analyses: Providing the Basis for Future Modeling Efforts and Bridges to Emerging Toxicology Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane C. Caldwell

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK models are used for predictions of internal or target dose from environmental and pharmacologic chemical exposures. Their use in human risk assessment is dependent on the nature of databases (animal or human used to develop and test them, and includes extrapolations across species, experimental paradigms, and determination of variability of response within human populations. Integration of state-of-the science PBPK modeling with emerging computational toxicology models is critical for extrapolation between in vitro exposures, in vivo physiologic exposure, whole organism responses, and long-term health outcomes. This special issue contains papers that can provide the basis for future modeling efforts and provide bridges to emerging toxicology paradigms. In this overview paper, we present an overview of the field and introduction for these papers that includes discussions of model development, best practices, risk-assessment applications of PBPK models, and limitations and bridges of modeling approaches for future applications. Specifically, issues addressed include: (a increased understanding of human variability of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in the population, (b exploration of mode of action hypotheses (MOA, (c application of biological modeling in the risk assessment of individual chemicals and chemical mixtures, and (d identification and discussion of uncertainties in the modeling process.

  12. Parametric analyses of DEMO Divertor using two dimensional transient thermal hydraulic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domalapally, Phani; Di Caro, Marco

    2018-05-01

    Among the options considered for cooling of the Plasma facing components of the DEMO reactor, water cooling is a conservative option because of its high heat removal capability. In this work a two-dimensional transient thermal hydraulic code is developed to support the design of the divertor for the projected DEMO reactor with water as a coolant. The mathematical model accounts for transient 2D heat conduction in the divertor section. Temperature-dependent properties are used for more accurate analysis. Correlations for single phase flow forced convection, partially developed subcooled nucleate boiling, fully developed subcooled nucleate boiling and film boiling are used to calculate the heat transfer coefficients on the channel side considering the swirl flow, wherein different correlations found in the literature are compared against each other. Correlation for the Critical Heat Flux is used to estimate its limit for a given flow conditions. This paper then investigates the results of the parametric analysis performed, whereby flow velocity, diameter of the coolant channel, thickness of the coolant pipe, thickness of the armor material, inlet temperature and operating pressure affect the behavior of the divertor under steady or transient heat fluxes. This code will help in understanding the basic parameterś effect on the behavior of the divertor, to achieve a better design from a thermal hydraulic point of view.

  13. Analysing hydro-mechanical behaviour of reinforced slopes through centrifuge modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veenhof, Rick; Wu, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Every year, slope instability is causing casualties and damage to properties and the environment. The behaviour of slopes during and after these kind of events is complex and depends on meteorological conditions, slope geometry, hydro-mechanical soil properties, boundary conditions and the initial state of the soils. This study describes the effects of adding reinforcement, consisting of randomly distributed polyolefin monofilament fibres or Ryegrass (Lolium), on the behaviour of medium-fine sand in loose and medium dense conditions. Direct shear tests were performed on sand specimens with different void ratios, water content and fibre or root density, respectively. To simulate the stress state of real scale field situations, centrifuge model tests were conducted on sand specimens with different slope angles, thickness of the reinforced layer, fibre density, void ratio and water content. An increase in peak shear strength is observed in all reinforced cases. Centrifuge tests show that for slopes that are reinforced the period until failure is extended. The location of shear band formation and patch displacement behaviour indicate that the design of slope reinforcement has a significant effect on the failure behaviour. Future research will focus on the effect of plant water uptake on soil cohesion.

  14. Modelling and Analysing Deadlock in Flexible Manufacturing System using Timed Petri Net

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assem Hatem Taha

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Flexible manufacturing system (FMS has several advantages compared to conventional systems such as higher machine utilization, higher efficiency, less inventory, and less production time. On the other hand, FMS is expensive and complicated. One of the main problems that may happen is the deadlock. Deadlock is a case that happens when one operation or more are unable to complete their tasks because of waiting of resources that are used by other processes. This may occur due to inappropriate sharing of the resources or improper resource allocation logic which may lead to deadlock occurrence due to the complexity of assigning shared resources to different tasks in an efficient way. One of the most effective tools to model and detect the deadlocks is the petri net. In this research the Matlab software has been used to detect the deadlock in two parallel lines with one shared machines. The analysis shows that deadlock exists at transition with high utilization and place with high waiting time

  15. Microarray and bioinformatic analyses suggest models for carbon metabolism in the autotroph Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. Appia-ayme; R. Quatrini; Y. Denis; F. Denizot; S. Silver; F. Roberto; F. Veloso; J. Valdes; J. P. Cardenas; M. Esparza; O. Orellana; E. Jedlicki; V. Bonnefoy; D. Holmes

    2006-09-01

    Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans is a chemolithoautotrophic bacterium that uses iron or sulfur as an energy and electron source. Bioinformatic analysis was used to identify putative genes and potential metabolic pathways involved in CO2 fixation, 2P-glycolate detoxification, carboxysome formation and glycogen utilization in At. ferrooxidans. Microarray transcript profiling was carried out to compare the relative expression of the predicted genes of these pathways when the microorganism was grown in the presence of iron versus sulfur. Several gene expression patterns were confirmed by real-time PCR. Genes for each of the above predicted pathways were found to be organized into discrete clusters. Clusters exhibited differential gene expression depending on the presence of iron or sulfur in the medium. Concordance of gene expression within each cluster, suggested that they are operons Most notably, clusters of genes predicted to be involved in CO2 fixation, carboxysome formation, 2P-glycolate detoxification and glycogen biosynthesis were up-regulated in sulfur medium, whereas genes involved in glycogen utilization were preferentially expressed in iron medium. These results can be explained in terms of models of gene regulation that suggest how A. ferrooxidans can adjust its central carbon management to respond to changing environmental conditions.

  16. Three-dimensional finite element model for flexible pavement analyses based field modulus measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacey, G.; Thenoux, G.; Rodriguez-Roa, F.

    2008-01-01

    In accordance with the present development of empirical-mechanistic tools, this paper presents an alternative to traditional analysis methods for flexible pavements using a three-dimensional finite element formulation based on a liner-elastic perfectly-plastic Drucker-Pager model for granular soil layers and a linear-elastic stress-strain law for the asphalt layer. From the sensitivity analysis performed, it was found that variations of +-4 degree in the internal friction angle of granular soil layers did not significantly affect the analyzed pavement response. On the other hand, a null dilation angle is conservatively proposed for design purposes. The use of a Light Falling Weight Deflectometer is also proposed as an effective and practical tool for on-site elastic modulus determination of granular soil layers. However, the stiffness value obtained from the tested layer should be corrected when the measured peak deflection and the peak force do not occur at the same time. In addition, some practical observations are given to achieve successful field measurements. The importance of using a 3D FE analysis to predict the maximum tensile strain at the bottom of the asphalt layer (related to pavement fatigue) and the maximum vertical comprehensive strain transmitted to the top of the granular soil layers (related to rutting) is also shown. (author)

  17. Modelling and optimization of combined cycle power plant based on exergoeconomic and environmental analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganjehkaviri, A.; Mohd Jaafar, M.N.; Ahmadi, P.; Barzegaravval, H.

    2014-01-01

    This research paper presents a study on a comprehensive thermodynamic modelling of a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). The effects of economic strategies and design parameters on the plant optimization are also studied. Exergoeconomic analysis is conducted in order to determine the cost of electricity and cost of exergy destruction. In addition, a comprehensive optimization study is performed to determine the optimal design parameters of the power plant. Next, the effects of economic parameters variations on the sustainability, carbon dioxide emission and fuel consumption of the plant are investigated and are presented for a typical combined cycle power plant. Therefore, the changes in economic parameters caused the balance between cash flows and fix costs of the plant changes at optimum point. Moreover, economic strategies greatly limited the maximum reasonable carbon emission and fuel consumption reduction. The results showed that by using the optimum values, the exergy efficiency increases for about 6%, while CO 2 emission decreases by 5.63%. However, the variation in the cost was less than 1% due to the fact that a cost constraint was implemented. In addition, the sensitivity analysis for the optimization study was curtailed to be carried out; therefore, the optimization process and results to two important parameters are presented and discussed.

  18. Alpins and thibos vectorial astigmatism analyses: proposal of a linear regression model between methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano de Oliveira Freitas

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To determine linear regression models between Alpins descriptive indices and Thibos astigmatic power vectors (APV, assessing the validity and strength of such correlations. METHODS: This case series prospectively assessed 62 eyes of 31 consecutive cataract patients with preoperative corneal astigmatism between 0.75 and 2.50 diopters in both eyes. Patients were randomly assorted among two phacoemulsification groups: one assigned to receive AcrySof®Toric intraocular lens (IOL in both eyes and another assigned to have AcrySof Natural IOL associated with limbal relaxing incisions, also in both eyes. All patients were reevaluated postoperatively at 6 months, when refractive astigmatism analysis was performed using both Alpins and Thibos methods. The ratio between Thibos postoperative APV and preoperative APV (APVratio and its linear regression to Alpins percentage of success of astigmatic surgery, percentage of astigmatism corrected and percentage of astigmatism reduction at the intended axis were assessed. RESULTS: Significant negative correlation between the ratio of post- and preoperative Thibos APVratio and Alpins percentage of success (%Success was found (Spearman's ρ=-0.93; linear regression is given by the following equation: %Success = (-APVratio + 1.00x100. CONCLUSION: The linear regression we found between APVratio and %Success permits a validated mathematical inference concerning the overall success of astigmatic surgery.

  19. Model tests and numerical analyses on horizontal impedance functions of inclined single piles embedded in cohesionless soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goit, Chandra Shekhar; Saitoh, Masato

    2013-03-01

    Horizontal impedance functions of inclined single piles are measured experimentally for model soil-pile systems with both the effects of local soil nonlinearity and resonant characteristics. Two practical pile inclinations of 5° and 10° in addition to a vertical pile embedded in cohesionless soil and subjected to lateral harmonic pile head loadings for a wide range of frequencies are considered. Results obtained with low-to-high amplitude of lateral loadings on model soil-pile systems encased in a laminar shear box show that the local nonlinearities have a profound impact on the horizontal impedance functions of piles. Horizontal impedance functions of inclined piles are found to be smaller than the vertical pile and the values decrease as the angle of pile inclination increases. Distinct values of horizontal impedance functions are obtained for the `positive' and `negative' cycles of harmonic loadings, leading to asymmetric force-displacement relationships for the inclined piles. Validation of these experimental results is carried out through three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses, and the results from the numerical models are in good agreement with the experimental data. Sensitivity analyses conducted on the numerical models suggest that the consideration of local nonlinearity at the vicinity of the soil-pile interface influence the response of the soil-pile systems.

  20. Analyses and optimization of Lee propagation model for LoRa 868 MHz network deployments in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobrilović Dalibor

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the recent period, fast ICT expansion and rapid appearance of new technologies raised the importance of fast and accurate planning and deployment of emerging communication technologies, especially wireless ones. In this paper is analyzed possible usage of Lee propagation model for planning, design and management of networks based on LoRa 868MHz technology. LoRa is wireless technology which can be deployed in various Internet of Things and Smart City scenarios in urban areas. The analyses are based on comparison of field measurements with model calculations. Besides the analyses of Lee propagation model usability, the possible optimization of the model is discussed as well. The research results can be used for accurate design, planning and for preparation of high-performance wireless resource management of various Internet of Things and Smart City applications in urban areas based on LoRa or similar wireless technology. The equipment used for measurements is based on open-source hardware.

  1. Analysing movements in investor’s risk aversion using the Heston volatility model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexie ALUPOAIEI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we intend to identify and analyze, if it is the case, an “epidemiological” relationship between forecasts of professional investors and short-term developments in the EUR/RON exchange rate. Even that we don’t call a typical epidemiological model as those ones used in biology fields of research, we investigated the hypothesis according to which after the Lehman Brothers crash and implicit the generation of the current financial crisis, the forecasts of professional investors pose a significant explanatory power on the futures short-run movements of EUR/RON. How does it work this mechanism? Firstly, the professional forecasters account for the current macro, financial and political states, then they elaborate forecasts. Secondly, based on that forecasts they get positions in the Romanian exchange market for hedging and/or speculation purposes. But their positions incorporate in addition different degrees of uncertainty. In parallel, a part of their anticipations are disseminated to the public via media channels. Since some important movements are viewed within macro, financial or political fields, the positions of professsional investors from FX derivative market are activated. The current study represents a first step in that direction of analysis for Romanian case. For the above formulated objectives, in this paper different measures of EUR/RON rate volatility have been estimated and compared with implied volatilities. In a second timeframe we called the co-integration and dynamic correlation based tools in order to investigate the relationship between implied volatility and daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate.

  2. Model-based performance and energy analyses of reverse osmosis to reuse wastewater in a PVC production site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kang; Fiedler, Thorsten; Blanco, Laura; Geissen, Sven-Uwe; Zander, Simon; Prieto, David; Blanco, Angeles; Negro, Carlos; Swinnen, Nathalie

    2017-11-10

    A pilot-scale reverse osmosis (RO) followed behind a membrane bioreactor (MBR) was developed for the desalination to reuse wastewater in a PVC production site. The solution-diffusion-film model (SDFM) based on the solution-diffusion model (SDM) and the film theory was proposed to describe rejections of electrolyte mixtures in the MBR effluent which consists of dominant ions (Na + and Cl - ) and several trace ions (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + and SO 4 2- ). The universal global optimisation method was used to estimate the ion permeability coefficients (B) and mass transfer coefficients (K) in SDFM. Then, the membrane performance was evaluated based on the estimated parameters which demonstrated that the theoretical simulations were in line with the experimental results for the dominant ions. Moreover, an energy analysis model with the consideration of limitation imposed by the thermodynamic restriction was proposed to analyse the specific energy consumption of the pilot-scale RO system in various scenarios.

  3. Computational Modeling of Oxygen Transport in the Microcirculation: From an Experiment-Based Model to Theoretical Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Lücker, Adrien

    2017-01-01

    Oxygen supply to cells by the cardiovascular system involves multiple physical and chemical processes that aim to satisfy fluctuating metabolic demand. Regulation mechanisms range from increased heart rate to minute adaptations in the microvasculature. The challenges and limitations of experimental studies in vivo make computational models an invaluable complement. In this thesis, oxygen transport from capillaries to tissue is investigated using a new numerical model that is tailored for vali...

  4. Devising a New Model of Demand-Based Learning Integrated with Social Networks and Analyses of its Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekim Fetaji

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The focus of the research study is to devise a new model for demand based learning that will be integrated with social networks such as Facebook, twitter and other. The study investigates this by reviewing the published literature and realizes a case study analyses in order to analyze the new models’ analytical perspectives of practical implementation. The study focuses on analyzing demand-based learning and investigating how it can be improved by devising a specific model that incorporates social network use. Statistical analyses of the results of the questionnaire through research of the raised questions and hypothesis showed that there is a need for introducing new models in the teaching process. The originality stands on the prologue of the social login approach to an educational environment, whereas the approach is counted as a contribution of developing a demand-based web application, which aims to modernize the educational pattern of communication, introduce the social login approach, and increase the process of knowledge transfer as well as improve learners’ performance and skills. Insights and recommendations are provided, argumented and discussed.

  5. Extending and Applying Spartan to Perform Temporal Sensitivity Analyses for Predicting Changes in Influential Biological Pathways in Computational Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alden, Kieran; Timmis, Jon; Andrews, Paul S; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Through integrating real time imaging, computational modelling, and statistical analysis approaches, previous work has suggested that the induction of and response to cell adhesion factors is the key initiating pathway in early lymphoid tissue development, in contrast to the previously accepted view that the process is triggered by chemokine mediated cell recruitment. These model derived hypotheses were developed using spartan, an open-source sensitivity analysis toolkit designed to establish and understand the relationship between a computational model and the biological system that model captures. Here, we extend the functionality available in spartan to permit the production of statistical analyses that contrast the behavior exhibited by a computational model at various simulated time-points, enabling a temporal analysis that could suggest whether the influence of biological mechanisms changes over time. We exemplify this extended functionality by using the computational model of lymphoid tissue development as a time-lapse tool. By generating results at twelve- hour intervals, we show how the extensions to spartan have been used to suggest that lymphoid tissue development could be biphasic, and predict the time-point when a switch in the influence of biological mechanisms might occur.

  6. An efficient modeling of fine air-gaps in tokamak in-vessel components for electromagnetic analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Dong Keun; Pak, Sunil; Jhang, Hogun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A simple and efficient modeling technique is introduced to avoid undesirable massive air mesh which is usually encountered at the modeling of fine structures in tokamak in-vessel component. ► This modeling method is based on the decoupled nodes at the boundary element mocking the air gaps. ► We demonstrated the viability and efficacy, comparing this method with brute force modeling of air-gaps and effective resistivity approximation instead of detail modeling. ► Application of the method to the ITER machine was successfully carried out without sacrificing computational resources and speed. - Abstract: A simple and efficient modeling technique is presented for a proper analysis of complicated eddy current flows in conducting structures with fine air gaps. It is based on the idea of replacing a slit with the decoupled boundary of finite elements. The viability and efficacy of the technique is demonstrated in a simple problem. Application of the method to electromagnetic load analyses during plasma disruptions in ITER has been successfully carried out without sacrificing computational resources and speed. This shows the proposed method is applicable to a practical system with complicated geometrical structures.

  7. An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

    2016-03-01

    This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

  8. Thermodynamic analysis and modeling of thermo compressor; Analyse et modelisation thermodynamique du mouvement du piston d'un thermocompresseur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arques, Ph. [Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 69 - Ecully (France)

    1998-07-01

    A thermo-compressor is a compressor that transforms directly the heat release by a source in an energy of pressure without intermediate mechanical work. It is a conversion of the Stirling engine in driven machine in order that the piston that provides the work has been suppressed. In this article, we present the analytical and numerical analyses of heat and mass transfers modeling in the different volumes of the thermo-compressor. This engine comprises a free piston displacer that separates cold and hot gas. (author)

  9. Modeling and stress analyses of a normal foot-ankle and a prosthetic foot-ankle complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozen, Mustafa; Sayman, Onur; Havitcioglu, Hasan

    2013-01-01

    Total ankle replacement (TAR) is a relatively new concept and is becoming more popular for treatment of ankle arthritis and fractures. Because of the high costs and difficulties of experimental studies, the developments of TAR prostheses are progressing very slowly. For this reason, the medical imaging techniques such as CT, and MR have become more and more useful. The finite element method (FEM) is a widely used technique to estimate the mechanical behaviors of materials and structures in engineering applications. FEM has also been increasingly applied to biomechanical analyses of human bones, tissues and organs, thanks to the development of both the computing capabilities and the medical imaging techniques. 3-D finite element models of the human foot and ankle from reconstruction of MR and CT images have been investigated by some authors. In this study, data of geometries (used in modeling) of a normal and a prosthetic foot and ankle were obtained from a 3D reconstruction of CT images. The segmentation software, MIMICS was used to generate the 3D images of the bony structures, soft tissues and components of prosthesis of normal and prosthetic ankle-foot complex. Except the spaces between the adjacent surface of the phalanges fused, metatarsals, cuneiforms, cuboid, navicular, talus and calcaneus bones, soft tissues and components of prosthesis were independently developed to form foot and ankle complex. SOLIDWORKS program was used to form the boundary surfaces of all model components and then the solid models were obtained from these boundary surfaces. Finite element analyses software, ABAQUS was used to perform the numerical stress analyses of these models for balanced standing position. Plantar pressure and von Mises stress distributions of the normal and prosthetic ankles were compared with each other. There was a peak pressure increase at the 4th metatarsal, first metatarsal and talus bones and a decrease at the intermediate cuneiform and calcaneus bones, in

  10. Gamma-ray pulsar physics: gap-model populations and light-curve analyses in the Fermi era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierbattista, M.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis research focusses on the study of the young and energetic isolated ordinary pulsar population detected by the Fermi gamma-ray space telescope. We compared the model expectations of four emission models and the LAT data. We found that all the models fail to reproduce the LAT detections, in particular the large number of high E objects observed. This inconsistency is not model dependent. A discrepancy between the radio-loud/radio-quiet objects ratio was also found between the observed and predicted samples. The L γ α E 0.5 relation is robustly confirmed by all the assumed models with particular agreement in the slot gap (SG) case. On luminosity bases, the intermediate altitude emission of the two pole caustic SG model is favoured. The beaming factor f Ω shows an E dependency that is slightly visible in the SG case. Estimates of the pulsar orientations have been obtained to explain the simultaneous gamma and radio light-curves. By analysing the solutions we found a relation between the observed energy cutoff and the width of the emission slot gap. This relation has been theoretically predicted. A possible magnetic obliquity α alignment with time is rejected -for all the models- on timescale of the order of 10 6 years. The light-curve morphology study shows that the outer magnetosphere gap emission (OGs) are favoured to explain the observed radio-gamma lag. The light curve moment studies (symmetry and sharpness) on the contrary favour a two pole caustic SG emission. All the model predictions suggest a different magnetic field layout with an hybrid two pole caustic and intermediate altitude emission to explain both the pulsar luminosity and light curve morphology. The low magnetosphere emission mechanism of the polar cap model, is systematically rejected by all the tests done. (author) [fr

  11. Using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in socioecological agent-based models to improve their analytical performance and policy relevance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Kramer, Daniel B; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Soranno, Patricia A

    2014-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system.

  12. Using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in socioecological agent-based models to improve their analytical performance and policy relevance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arika Ligmann-Zielinska

    Full Text Available Agent-based models (ABMs have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1 efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2 conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system.

  13. Modeling and analyses for an extended car-following model accounting for drivers' situation awareness from cyber physical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dong; Sun, Dihua; Zhao, Min; Zhou, Tong; Cheng, Senlin

    2018-07-01

    In fact, driving process is a typical cyber physical process which couples tightly the cyber factor of traffic information with the physical components of the vehicles. Meanwhile, the drivers have situation awareness in driving process, which is not only ascribed to the current traffic states, but also extrapolates the changing trend. In this paper, an extended car-following model is proposed to account for drivers' situation awareness. The stability criterion of the proposed model is derived via linear stability analysis. The results show that the stable region of proposed model will be enlarged on the phase diagram compared with previous models. By employing the reductive perturbation method, the modified Korteweg de Vries (mKdV) equation is obtained. The kink-antikink soliton of mKdV equation reveals theoretically the evolution of traffic jams. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the analytical results. Two typical traffic Scenarios are investigated. The simulation results demonstrate that drivers' situation awareness plays a key role in traffic flow oscillations and the congestion transition.

  14. Genetic analyses using GGE model and a mixed linear model approach, and stability analyses using AMMI bi-plot for late-maturity alpha-amylase activity in bread wheat genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasul, Golam; Glover, Karl D; Krishnan, Padmanaban G; Wu, Jixiang; Berzonsky, William A; Fofana, Bourlaye

    2017-06-01

    Low falling number and discounting grain when it is downgraded in class are the consequences of excessive late-maturity α-amylase activity (LMAA) in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Grain expressing high LMAA produces poorer quality bread products. To effectively breed for low LMAA, it is necessary to understand what genes control it and how they are expressed, particularly when genotypes are grown in different environments. In this study, an International Collection (IC) of 18 spring wheat genotypes and another set of 15 spring wheat cultivars adapted to South Dakota (SD), USA were assessed to characterize the genetic component of LMAA over 5 and 13 environments, respectively. The data were analysed using a GGE model with a mixed linear model approach and stability analysis was presented using an AMMI bi-plot on R software. All estimated variance components and their proportions to the total phenotypic variance were highly significant for both sets of genotypes, which were validated by the AMMI model analysis. Broad-sense heritability for LMAA was higher in SD adapted cultivars (53%) compared to that in IC (49%). Significant genetic effects and stability analyses showed some genotypes, e.g. 'Lancer', 'Chester' and 'LoSprout' from IC, and 'Alsen', 'Traverse' and 'Forefront' from SD cultivars could be used as parents to develop new cultivars expressing low levels of LMAA. Stability analysis using an AMMI bi-plot revealed that 'Chester', 'Lancer' and 'Advance' were the most stable across environments, while in contrast, 'Kinsman', 'Lerma52' and 'Traverse' exhibited the lowest stability for LMAA across environments.

  15. Data Assimilation Tools for CO2 Reservoir Model Development – A Review of Key Data Types, Analyses, and Selected Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockhold, Mark L.; Sullivan, E. C.; Murray, Christopher J.; Last, George V.; Black, Gary D.

    2009-09-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has embarked on an initiative to develop world-class capabilities for performing experimental and computational analyses associated with geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to provide science-based solutions for helping to mitigate the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions. This Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) initiative currently has two primary focus areas—advanced experimental methods and computational analysis. The experimental methods focus area involves the development of new experimental capabilities, supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Environmental Molecular Science Laboratory (EMSL) housed at PNNL, for quantifying mineral reaction kinetics with CO2 under high temperature and pressure (supercritical) conditions. The computational analysis focus area involves numerical simulation of coupled, multi-scale processes associated with CO2 sequestration in geologic media, and the development of software to facilitate building and parameterizing conceptual and numerical models of subsurface reservoirs that represent geologic repositories for injected CO2. This report describes work in support of the computational analysis focus area. The computational analysis focus area currently consists of several collaborative research projects. These are all geared towards the development and application of conceptual and numerical models for geologic sequestration of CO2. The software being developed for this focus area is referred to as the Geologic Sequestration Software Suite or GS3. A wiki-based software framework is being developed to support GS3. This report summarizes work performed in FY09 on one of the LDRD projects in the computational analysis focus area. The title of this project is Data Assimilation Tools for CO2 Reservoir Model Development. Some key objectives of this project in FY09 were to assess the current state

  16. ATOP - The Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System Based on the mpiPOM. Part 1: Model Descriptions, Analyses and Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo Oey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A data-assimilated Taiwan Ocean Prediction (ATOP system is being developed at the National Central University, Taiwan. The model simulates sea-surface height, three-dimensional currents, temperature and salinity and turbulent mixing. The model has options for tracer and particle-tracking algorithms, as well as for wave-induced Stokes drift and wave-enhanced mixing and bottom drag. Two different forecast domains have been tested: a large-grid domain that encompasses the entire North Pacific Ocean at 0.1° × 0.1° horizontal resolution and 41 vertical sigma levels, and a smaller western North Pacific domain which at present also has the same horizontal resolution. In both domains, 25-year spin-up runs from 1988 - 2011 were first conducted, forced by six-hourly Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP and NCEP reanalysis Global Forecast System (GSF winds. The results are then used as initial conditions to conduct ocean analyses from January 2012 through February 2012, when updated hindcasts and real-time forecasts begin using the GFS winds. This paper describes the ATOP system and compares the forecast results against satellite altimetry data for assessing model skills. The model results are also shown to compare well with observations of (i the Kuroshio intrusion in the northern South China Sea, and (ii subtropical counter current. Review and comparison with other models in the literature of ¡§(i¡¨ are also given.

  17. One size does not fit all: On how Markov model order dictates performance of genomic sequence analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narlikar, Leelavati; Mehta, Nidhi; Galande, Sanjeev; Arjunwadkar, Mihir

    2013-01-01

    The structural simplicity and ability to capture serial correlations make Markov models a popular modeling choice in several genomic analyses, such as identification of motifs, genes and regulatory elements. A critical, yet relatively unexplored, issue is the determination of the order of the Markov model. Most biological applications use a predetermined order for all data sets indiscriminately. Here, we show the vast variation in the performance of such applications with the order. To identify the ‘optimal’ order, we investigated two model selection criteria: Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The BIC optimal order delivers the best performance for mammalian phylogeny reconstruction and motif discovery. Importantly, this order is different from orders typically used by many tools, suggesting that a simple additional step determining this order can significantly improve results. Further, we describe a novel classification approach based on BIC optimal Markov models to predict functionality of tissue-specific promoters. Our classifier discriminates between promoters active across 12 different tissues with remarkable accuracy, yielding 3 times the precision expected by chance. Application to the metagenomics problem of identifying the taxum from a short DNA fragment yields accuracies at least as high as the more complex mainstream methodologies, while retaining conceptual and computational simplicity. PMID:23267010

  18. Modeling moisture ingress through simplified concrete crack geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Michel, Alexander; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2011-01-01

    , considered to have two parts; 1) a coalesced crack length which behaves as a free-surface for moisture ingress, and 2) an isolated microcracking length which resists ingress similarly to the bulk material. Transport model results are compared to experimental results from steel fibre reinforced concrete wedge......This paper introduces a numerical model for ingress in cracked steel fibre reinforced concrete. Details of a simplified crack are preset in the model’s geometry using the cracked hinge model (CHM). The total crack length estimated using the CHM was, based on earlier work on conventional concrete...... on moisture ingress. Results from the transport model indicate the length of the isolated microcracks was approximately 19 mm for the investigated concrete composition....

  19. Using FOSM-Based Data Worth Analyses to Design Geophysical Surveys to Reduce Uncertainty in a Regional Groundwater Model Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B. D.; White, J.; Kress, W. H.; Clark, B. R.; Barlow, J.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrogeophysical surveys have become an integral part of understanding hydrogeological frameworks used in groundwater models. Regional models cover a large area where water well data is, at best, scattered and irregular. Since budgets are finite, priorities must be assigned to select optimal areas for geophysical surveys. For airborne electromagnetic (AEM) geophysical surveys, optimization of mapping depth and line spacing needs to take in account the objectives of the groundwater models. The approach discussed here uses a first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty analyses which assumes an approximate linear relation between model parameters and observations. This assumption allows FOSM analyses to be applied to estimate the value of increased parameter knowledge to reduce forecast uncertainty. FOSM is used to facilitate optimization of yet-to-be-completed geophysical surveying to reduce model forecast uncertainty. The main objective of geophysical surveying is assumed to estimate values and spatial variation in hydrologic parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity) as well as map lower permeability layers that influence the spatial distribution of recharge flux. The proposed data worth analysis was applied to Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) which is being updated. The objective of MERAS is to assess the ground-water availability (status and trends) of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system. The study area covers portions of eight states including Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. The active model grid covers approximately 70,000 square miles, and incorporates some 6,000 miles of major rivers and over 100,000 water wells. In the FOSM analysis, a dense network of pilot points was used to capture uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and recharge. To simulate the effect of AEM flight lines, the prior uncertainty for hydraulic conductivity and recharge pilots along potential flight lines was

  20. Using plant growth modeling to analyse C source-sink relations under drought: inter and intra specific comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit ePallas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The ability to assimilate C and allocate NSC (non structural carbohydrates to the most appropriate organs is crucial to maximize plant ecological or agronomic performance. Such C source and sink activities are differentially affected by environmental constraints. Under drought, plant growth is generally more sink than source limited as organ expansion or appearance rate is earlier and stronger affected than C assimilation. This favors plant survival and recovery but not always agronomic performance as NSC are stored rather than used for growth due to a modified metabolism in source and sink leaves. Such interactions between plant C and water balance are complex and plant modeling can help analyzing their impact on plant phenotype. This paper addresses the impact of trade-offs between C sink and source activities and plant production under drought, combining experimental and modeling approaches. Two contrasted monocotyledonous species (rice, oil palm were studied. Experimentally, the sink limitation of plant growth under moderate drought was confirmed as well as the modifications in NSC metabolism in source and sink organs. Under severe stress, when C source became limiting, plant NSC concentration decreased. Two plant models dedicated to oil palm and rice morphogenesis were used to perform a sensitivity analysis and further explore how to optimize C sink and source drought sensitivity to maximize plant growth. Modeling results highlighted that optimal drought sensitivity depends both on drought type and species and that modeling is a great opportunity to analyse such complex processes. Further modeling needs and more generally the challenge of using models to support complex trait breeding are discussed.

  1. Comparative sequence and structural analyses of G-protein-coupled receptor crystal structures and implications for molecular models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine L Worth

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Up until recently the only available experimental (high resolution structure of a G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR was that of bovine rhodopsin. In the past few years the determination of GPCR structures has accelerated with three new receptors, as well as squid rhodopsin, being successfully crystallized. All share a common molecular architecture of seven transmembrane helices and can therefore serve as templates for building molecular models of homologous GPCRs. However, despite the common general architecture of these structures key differences do exist between them. The choice of which experimental GPCR structure(s to use for building a comparative model of a particular GPCR is unclear and without detailed structural and sequence analyses, could be arbitrary. The aim of this study is therefore to perform a systematic and detailed analysis of sequence-structure relationships of known GPCR structures. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed in detail conserved and unique sequence motifs and structural features in experimentally-determined GPCR structures. Deeper insight into specific and important structural features of GPCRs as well as valuable information for template selection has been gained. Using key features a workflow has been formulated for identifying the most appropriate template(s for building homology models of GPCRs of unknown structure. This workflow was applied to a set of 14 human family A GPCRs suggesting for each the most appropriate template(s for building a comparative molecular model. CONCLUSIONS: The available crystal structures represent only a subset of all possible structural variation in family A GPCRs. Some GPCRs have structural features that are distributed over different crystal structures or which are not present in the templates suggesting that homology models should be built using multiple templates. This study provides a systematic analysis of GPCR crystal structures and a consistent method for identifying

  2. Comparative sequence and structural analyses of G-protein-coupled receptor crystal structures and implications for molecular models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worth, Catherine L; Kleinau, Gunnar; Krause, Gerd

    2009-09-16

    Up until recently the only available experimental (high resolution) structure of a G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) was that of bovine rhodopsin. In the past few years the determination of GPCR structures has accelerated with three new receptors, as well as squid rhodopsin, being successfully crystallized. All share a common molecular architecture of seven transmembrane helices and can therefore serve as templates for building molecular models of homologous GPCRs. However, despite the common general architecture of these structures key differences do exist between them. The choice of which experimental GPCR structure(s) to use for building a comparative model of a particular GPCR is unclear and without detailed structural and sequence analyses, could be arbitrary. The aim of this study is therefore to perform a systematic and detailed analysis of sequence-structure relationships of known GPCR structures. We analyzed in detail conserved and unique sequence motifs and structural features in experimentally-determined GPCR structures. Deeper insight into specific and important structural features of GPCRs as well as valuable information for template selection has been gained. Using key features a workflow has been formulated for identifying the most appropriate template(s) for building homology models of GPCRs of unknown structure. This workflow was applied to a set of 14 human family A GPCRs suggesting for each the most appropriate template(s) for building a comparative molecular model. The available crystal structures represent only a subset of all possible structural variation in family A GPCRs. Some GPCRs have structural features that are distributed over different crystal structures or which are not present in the templates suggesting that homology models should be built using multiple templates. This study provides a systematic analysis of GPCR crystal structures and a consistent method for identifying suitable templates for GPCR homology modelling that will

  3. Comparative analyses reveal potential uses of Brachypodium distachyon as a model for cold stress responses in temperate grasses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Chuan

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the potential of Brachypodium distachyon as a model for low temperature stress responses in Pooideae. The ice recrystallization inhibition protein (IRIP genes, fructosyltransferase (FST genes, and many C-repeat binding factor (CBF genes are Pooideae specific and important in low temperature responses. Here we used comparative analyses to study conservation and evolution of these gene families in B. distachyon to better understand its potential as a model species for agriculturally important temperate grasses. Results Brachypodium distachyon contains cold responsive IRIP genes which have evolved through Brachypodium specific gene family expansions. A large cold responsive CBF3 subfamily was identified in B. distachyon, while CBF4 homologs are absent from the genome. No B. distachyon FST gene homologs encode typical core Pooideae FST-motifs and low temperature induced fructan accumulation was dramatically different in B. distachyon compared to core Pooideae species. Conclusions We conclude that B. distachyon can serve as an interesting model for specific molecular mechanisms involved in low temperature responses in core Pooideae species. However, the evolutionary history of key genes involved in low temperature responses has been different in Brachypodium and core Pooideae species. These differences limit the use of B. distachyon as a model for holistic studies relevant for agricultural core Pooideae species.

  4. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  5. Mapping boreal forest biomass from a SRTM and TanDEM-X based on canopy height model and Landsat spectral indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Yaser; St-Onge, Benoît; Leblon, Brigitte; Prieur, Jean-François; Simard, Marc

    2018-06-01

    We propose a method for mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) (Mg ha-1) in boreal forests based predominantly on Landsat 8 images and on canopy height models (CHM) generated using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and the TanDEM-X mission. The original SRTM digital elevation model (DEM) was corrected by modelling the respective effects of landform and land cover on its errors and then subtracted from a TanDEM-X DSM to produce a SAR CHM. Among all the landform factors, the terrain curvature had the largest effect on SRTM elevation errors, with a r2 of 0.29. The NDSI was the best predictor of the residual SRTM land cover error, with a r2 of 0.30. The final SAR CHM had a RMSE of 2.45 m, with a bias of 0.07 m, compared to a lidar-based CHM. An AGB prediction model was developed based on a combination of the SAR CHM, TanDEM-X coherence, Landsat 8 NDVI, and other vegetation indices of RVI, DVI, GRVI, EVI, LAI, GNDVI, SAVI, GVI, Brightness, Greenness, and Wetness. The best results were obtained using a Random forest regression algorithm, at the stand level, yielding a RMSE of 26 Mg ha-1 (34% of average biomass), with a r2 of 0.62. This method has the potential of creating spatially continuous biomass maps over entire biomes using only spaceborne sensors and requiring only low-intensity calibration.

  6. Clustering structures of large proteins using multifractal analyses based on a 6-letter model and hydrophobicity scale of amino acids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Jianyi; Yu Zuguo; Anh, Vo

    2009-01-01

    The Schneider and Wrede hydrophobicity scale of amino acids and the 6-letter model of protein are proposed to study the relationship between the primary structure and the secondary structural classification of proteins. Two kinds of multifractal analyses are performed on the two measures obtained from these two kinds of data on large proteins. Nine parameters from the multifractal analyses are considered to construct the parameter spaces. Each protein is represented by one point in these spaces. A procedure is proposed to separate large proteins in the α, β, α + β and α/β structural classes in these parameter spaces. Fisher's linear discriminant algorithm is used to assess our clustering accuracy on the 49 selected large proteins. Numerical results indicate that the discriminant accuracies are satisfactory. In particular, they reach 100.00% and 84.21% in separating the α proteins from the {β, α + β, α/β} proteins in a parameter space; 92.86% and 86.96% in separating the β proteins from the {α + β, α/β} proteins in another parameter space; 91.67% and 83.33% in separating the α/β proteins from the α + β proteins in the last parameter space.

  7. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  8. LOCO - a linearised model for analysing the onset of coolant oscillations and frequency response of boiling channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romberg, T.M.

    1982-12-01

    Industrial plant such as heat exchangers and nuclear and conventional boilers are prone to coolant flow oscillations which may not be detected. In this report, a hydrodynamic model is formulated in which the one-dimensional, non-linear, partial differential equations for the conservation of mass, energy and momentum are perturbed with respect to time, linearised, and Laplace-transformed into the s-domain for frequency response analysis. A computer program has been developed to integrate numerically the resulting non-linear ordinary differential equations by finite difference methods. A sample problem demonstrates how the computer code is used to analyse the frequency response and flow stability characteristics of a heated channel

  9. A permutation test to analyse systematic bias and random measurement errors of medical devices via boosting location and scale models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Andreas; Schmid, Matthias; Pfahlberg, Annette; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

    2017-06-01

    Measurement errors of medico-technical devices can be separated into systematic bias and random error. We propose a new method to address both simultaneously via generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) in combination with permutation tests. More precisely, we extend a recently proposed boosting algorithm for GAMLSS to provide a test procedure to analyse potential device effects on the measurements. We carried out a large-scale simulation study to provide empirical evidence that our method is able to identify possible sources of systematic bias as well as random error under different conditions. Finally, we apply our approach to compare measurements of skin pigmentation from two different devices in an epidemiological study.

  10. Using niche-modelling and species-specific cost analyses to determine a multispecies corridor in a fragmented landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurano, Juan Pablo; Selleski, Nicole; Schneider, Rosio G.

    2017-01-01

    types independent of the degree of legal protection. These data used with multifocal GIS analyses balance the varying degree of overlap and unique properties among them allowing for comprehensive conservation strategies to be developed relatively rapidly. Our comprehensive approach serves as a model to other regions faced with habitat loss and lack of data. The five carnivores focused on in our study have wide ranges, so the results from this study can be expanded and combined with surrounding countries, with analyses at the species or community level. PMID:28841692

  11. Comparison of optical-model and Lane-model analyses of sub-Coulomb protons on /sup 92,94/Zr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrils, R.; Flynn, D.S.; Hershberger, R.L.; Gabbard, F.

    1979-01-01

    Accurate proton elastic-scattering cross sections were measured with enriched targets of /sup 92,94/Zr from E/sub p/ = 2.0 to 6.5 MeV. The elastic-scattering cross sections, together with absorption cross sections, were analyzed with a Lane model which employed the optical potential of Johnson et al. The resulting parameters were compared with those obtained with a single-channel optical model and negligible differences were found. Significant differences between the 92 Zr and 94 Zr real diffusenesses resulted from the inclusion of the (p,p) data in the analyses

  12. Computational modeling and statistical analyses on individual contact rate and exposure to disease in complex and confined transportation hubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W. L.; Tsui, K. L.; Lo, S. M.; Liu, S. B.

    2018-01-01

    Crowded transportation hubs such as metro stations are thought as ideal places for the development and spread of epidemics. However, for the special features of complex spatial layout, confined environment with a large number of highly mobile individuals, it is difficult to quantify human contacts in such environments, wherein disease spreading dynamics were less explored in the previous studies. Due to the heterogeneity and dynamic nature of human interactions, increasing studies proved the importance of contact distance and length of contact in transmission probabilities. In this study, we show how detailed information on contact and exposure patterns can be obtained by statistical analyses on microscopic crowd simulation data. To be specific, a pedestrian simulation model-CityFlow was employed to reproduce individuals' movements in a metro station based on site survey data, values and distributions of individual contact rate and exposure in different simulation cases were obtained and analyzed. It is interesting that Weibull distribution fitted the histogram values of individual-based exposure in each case very well. Moreover, we found both individual contact rate and exposure had linear relationship with the average crowd densities of the environments. The results obtained in this paper can provide reference to epidemic study in complex and confined transportation hubs and refine the existing disease spreading models.

  13. Treatment of visceral leishmaniasis: model-based analyses on the spread of antimony-resistant L. donovani in Bihar, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anette Stauch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of antileishmanial therapy for decades, but increasing failure rates under antimonial treatment have challenged further use of these drugs in the Indian subcontinent. Experimental evidence has suggested that parasites which are resistant against antimonials have superior survival skills than sensitive ones even in the absence of antimonial treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use simulation studies based on a mathematical L. donovani transmission model to identify parameters which can explain why treatment failure rates under antimonial treatment increased up to 65% in Bihar between 1980 and 1997. Model analyses suggest that resistance to treatment alone cannot explain the observed treatment failure rates. We explore two hypotheses referring to an increased fitness of antimony-resistant parasites: the additional fitness is (i disease-related, by causing more clinical cases (higher pathogenicity or more severe disease (higher virulence, or (ii is transmission-related, by increasing the transmissibility from sand flies to humans or vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Both hypotheses can potentially explain the Bihar observations. However, increased transmissibility as an explanation appears more plausible because it can occur in the background of asymptomatically transmitted infection whereas disease-related factors would most probably be observable. Irrespective of the cause of fitness, parasites with a higher fitness will finally replace sensitive parasites, even if antimonials are replaced by another drug.

  14. Bayesian salamanders: analysing the demography of an underground population of the European plethodontid Speleomantes strinatii with state-space modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvidio Sebastiano

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been suggested that Plethodontid salamanders are excellent candidates for indicating ecosystem health. However, detailed, long-term data sets of their populations are rare, limiting our understanding of the demographic processes underlying their population fluctuations. Here we present a demographic analysis based on a 1996 - 2008 data set on an underground population of Speleomantes strinatii (Aellen in NW Italy. We utilised a Bayesian state-space approach allowing us to parameterise a stage-structured Lefkovitch model. We used all the available population data from annual temporary removal experiments to provide us with the baseline data on the numbers of juveniles, subadults and adult males and females present at any given time. Results Sampling the posterior chains of the converged state-space model gives us the likelihood distributions of the state-specific demographic rates and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Analysing the resulting parameterised Lefkovitch matrices shows that the population growth is very close to 1, and that at population equilibrium we expect half of the individuals present to be adults of reproductive age which is what we also observe in the data. Elasticity analysis shows that adult survival is the key determinant for population growth. Conclusion This analysis demonstrates how an understanding of population demography can be gained from structured population data even in a case where following marked individuals over their whole lifespan is not practical.

  15. Round-robin pretest analyses of a 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment model subject to static internal pressurization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1987-05-01

    Analyses of a 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment model that will be tested to failure at Sandia National Laboratories in the spring of 1987 were conducted by the following organizations in the United States and Europe: Sandia National Laboratories (USA), Argonne National Laboratory (USA), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Commissariat a L'Energie Atomique (France), HM Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (UK), Comitato Nazionale per la ricerca e per lo sviluppo dell'Energia Nucleare e delle Energie Alternative (Italy), UK Atomic Energy Authority, Safety and Reliability Directorate (UK), Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (FRG), Brookhaven National Laboratory (USA), and Central Electricity Generating Board (UK). Each organization was supplied with a standard information package, which included construction drawings and actual material properties for most of the materials used in the model. Each organization worked independently using their own analytical methods. This report includes descriptions of the various analytical approaches and pretest predictions submitted by each organization. Significant milestones that occur with increasing pressure, such as damage to the concrete (cracking and crushing) and yielding of the steel components, and the failure pressure (capacity) and failure mechanism are described. Analytical predictions for pressure histories of strain in the liner and rebar and displacements are compared at locations where experimental results will be available after the test. Thus, these predictions can be compared to one another and to experimental results after the test

  16. Longitudinal changes in telomere length and associated genetic parameters in dairy cattle analysed using random regression models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luise A Seeker

    Full Text Available Telomeres cap the ends of linear chromosomes and shorten with age in many organisms. In humans short telomeres have been linked to morbidity and mortality. With the accumulation of longitudinal datasets the focus shifts from investigating telomere length (TL to exploring TL change within individuals over time. Some studies indicate that the speed of telomere attrition is predictive of future disease. The objectives of the present study were to 1 characterize the change in bovine relative leukocyte TL (RLTL across the lifetime in Holstein Friesian dairy cattle, 2 estimate genetic parameters of RLTL over time and 3 investigate the association of differences in individual RLTL profiles with productive lifespan. RLTL measurements were analysed using Legendre polynomials in a random regression model to describe TL profiles and genetic variance over age. The analyses were based on 1,328 repeated RLTL measurements of 308 female Holstein Friesian dairy cattle. A quadratic Legendre polynomial was fitted to the fixed effect of age in months and to the random effect of the animal identity. Changes in RLTL, heritability and within-trait genetic correlation along the age trajectory were calculated and illustrated. At a population level, the relationship between RLTL and age was described by a positive quadratic function. Individuals varied significantly regarding the direction and amount of RLTL change over life. The heritability of RLTL ranged from 0.36 to 0.47 (SE = 0.05-0.08 and remained statistically unchanged over time. The genetic correlation of RLTL at birth with measurements later in life decreased with the time interval between samplings from near unity to 0.69, indicating that TL later in life might be regulated by different genes than TL early in life. Even though animals differed in their RLTL profiles significantly, those differences were not correlated with productive lifespan (p = 0.954.

  17. 117_629 - 633_CHM 043 Sulaiman

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    The mean zones of inhibition against the test microorganisms ranged between 20 – 33 mm. The highest zone of inhibition was obtained with ethyl acetate for Bacillus cereus as 33 mm. The Minimum Inhibitory. Concentration (MIC) ranges from 2.75 mg/ml to 50 mg/ml, the MIC for both methanol and chloroform extracts were ...

  18. 70_350 - 355_CHM 022 Abdurrahman

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    Due to their chemical structure ... physical and chemical methods, which includ ... nce: Department of Pure and Industrial Chemistry, Umaru Musa Yaradu ..... functional groups with respect to their peak .... prepared from the epicarp of Ricinus.

  19. 120_647 - 6_CHM 027 Ibrahim

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    of Plant Materials. Fresh leaves J. curcas were collected from the premises of Gwarmai, Bebeji local govt. of Kano State, Nigeria and were identified at the Department of Plant Science, Bayero. University Kano, Nigeria. The plant materials were dried in the laboratory at room temperature (26 °C) for 2 weeks, after which it.

  20. 62_311 - 317_CHM 021 Rukayyat

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    Bayero Journal of Pure and App. ISSN 2006 – 6996 ... physical adsorption of the plant constituent. Keywords: Alkaloids ... corrosion process of mild steel in the test solutions and the inhibit the concentration of ... to an industrial the reaction ...

  1. 81_414 - 417_CHM 029 Lirwanu

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    ingested water may cause severe damage t lungs, kidneys, and ... effective and efficient alternative method water/wastewater treatment, utiliz naturally ..... using New Activated Carbon Developed from Date ... Coal and Zea mays Cob. Waste as ...

  2. A Meta-Meta-Analysis: Empirical Review of Statistical Power, Type I Error Rates, Effect Sizes, and Model Selection of Meta-Analyses Published in Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cafri, Guy; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Brannick, Michael T.

    2010-01-01

    This article uses meta-analyses published in "Psychological Bulletin" from 1995 to 2005 to describe meta-analyses in psychology, including examination of statistical power, Type I errors resulting from multiple comparisons, and model choice. Retrospective power estimates indicated that univariate categorical and continuous moderators, individual…

  3. Statistical Analyses of High-Resolution Aircraft and Satellite Observations of Sea Ice: Applications for Improving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, S. L.; Kurtz, N. T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Harbeck, J. P.; Onana, V.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite-derived estimates of ice thickness and observations of ice extent over the last decade point to a downward trend in the basin-scale ice volume of the Arctic Ocean. This loss has broad-ranging impacts on the regional climate and ecosystems, as well as implications for regional infrastructure, marine navigation, national security, and resource exploration. New observational datasets at small spatial and temporal scales are now required to improve our understanding of physical processes occurring within the ice pack and advance parameterizations in the next generation of numerical sea-ice models. High-resolution airborne and satellite observations of the sea ice are now available at meter-scale resolution or better that provide new details on the properties and morphology of the ice pack across basin scales. For example the NASA IceBridge airborne campaign routinely surveys the sea ice of the Arctic and Southern Oceans with an advanced sensor suite including laser and radar altimeters and digital cameras that together provide high-resolution measurements of sea ice freeboard, thickness, snow depth and lead distribution. Here we present statistical analyses of the ice pack primarily derived from the following IceBridge instruments: the Digital Mapping System (DMS), a nadir-looking, high-resolution digital camera; the Airborne Topographic Mapper, a scanning lidar; and the University of Kansas snow radar, a novel instrument designed to estimate snow depth on sea ice. Together these instruments provide data from which a wide range of sea ice properties may be derived. We provide statistics on lead distribution and spacing, lead width and area, floe size and distance between floes, as well as ridge height, frequency and distribution. The goals of this study are to (i) identify unique statistics that can be used to describe the characteristics of specific ice regions, for example first-year/multi-year ice, diffuse ice edge/consolidated ice pack, and convergent

  4. On groundwater flow modelling in safety analyses of spent fuel disposal. A comparative study with emphasis on boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jussila, P

    1999-11-01

    Modelling groundwater flow is an essential part of the safety assessment of spent fuel disposal because moving groundwater makes a physical connection between a geological repository and the biosphere. Some of the common approaches to model groundwater flow in bedrock are equivalent porous continuum (EC), stochastic continuum and various fracture network concepts. The actual flow system is complex and measuring data are limited. Multiple distinct approaches and models, alternative scenarios as well as calibration and sensitivity analyses are used to give confidence on the results of the calculations. The correctness and orders of magnitude of results of such complex research can be assessed by comparing them to the results of simplified and robust approaches. The first part of this study is a survey of the objects, contents and methods of the groundwater flow modelling performed in the safety assessment of the spent fuel disposal in Finland and Sweden. The most apparent difference of the Swedish studies compared to the Finnish ones is the approach of using more different models, which is enabled by the more resources available in Sweden. The results of more comprehensive approaches provided by international co-operation are very useful to give perspective to the results obtained in Finland. In the second part of this study, the influence of boundary conditions on the flow fields of a simple 2D model is examined. The assumptions and simplifications in this approach include e.g. the following: (1) the EC model is used, in which the 2-dimensional domain is considered a continuum of equivalent properties without fractures present, (2) the calculations are done for stationary fields, without sources or sinks present in the domain and with a constant density of the groundwater, (3) the repository is represented by an isotropic plate, the hydraulic conductivity of which is given fictitious values, (4) the hydraulic conductivity of rock is supposed to have an exponential

  5. Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Analyses of Heterogeneity and Thermal-Loading Factors for the Proposed Repository at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glascoe, L.G.; Buscheck, T.A.; Gansemer, J.; Sun, Y.; Lee, K.

    2002-01-01

    The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermohydrologic (TH) conditions in emplacement drifts and the adjoining host rock throughout the proposed nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The MSTHM is a computationally efficient approach that accounts for TH processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and for heat flow at the multi-kilometer scale at Yucca Mountain. The modeling effort presented here is an early investigation of the repository and is simulated at a lower temperature mode and with a different panel loading than the repository currently being considered for license application. We present these recent lower temperature mode MSTHM simulations that address the influence of repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity and the influence of preclosure operational factors affecting thermal-loading conditions. We can now accommodate a complex repository layout with emplacement drifts lying in non-parallel planes using a superposition process that combines results from multiple mountain-scale submodels. This development, along with other improvements to the MSTHM, enables more rigorous analyses of preclosure operational factors. These improvements include the ability to (1) predict TH conditions on a drift-by-drift basis, (2) represent sequential emplacement of waste packages along the drifts, and (3) incorporate distance- and time-dependent heat-removal efficiency associated with drift ventilation. Alternative approaches to addressing repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity are investigated. We find that only one of the four MSTHM submodel types needs to incorporate thermal-conductivity heterogeneity. For a particular repository design, we find that the most influential parameters are (1) percolation-flux distribution, (2) thermal-conductivity heterogeneity within the host-rock units, (3) the sequencing of waste-package emplacement, and (4) the

  6. Water flow experiments and analyses on the cross-flow type mercury target model with the flow guide plates

    CERN Document Server

    Haga, K; Kaminaga, M; Hino, R

    2001-01-01

    A mercury target is used in the spallation neutron source driven by a high-intensity proton accelerator. In this study, the effectiveness of the cross-flow type mercury target structure was evaluated experimentally and analytically. Prior to the experiment, the mercury flow field and the temperature distribution in the target container were analyzed assuming a proton beam energy and power of 1.5 GeV and 5 MW, respectively, and the feasibility of the cross-flow type target was evaluated. Then the average water flow velocity field in the target mock-up model, which was fabricated from Plexiglass for a water experiment, was measured at room temperature using the PIV technique. Water flow analyses were conducted and the analytical results were compared with the experimental results. The experimental results showed that the cross-flow could be realized in most of the proton beam path area and the analytical result of the water flow velocity field showed good correspondence to the experimental results in the case w...

  7. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

  8. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  9. Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. Turner

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per

  10. Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: mathematical modelling analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruanne V Barnabas

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Candidate human papillomavirus (HPV vaccines have demonstrated almost 90%-100% efficacy in preventing persistent, type-specific HPV infection over 18 mo in clinical trials. If these vaccines go on to demonstrate prevention of precancerous lesions in phase III clinical trials, they will be licensed for public use in the near future. How these vaccines will be used in countries with national cervical cancer screening programmes is an important question. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a transmission model of HPV 16 infection and progression to cervical cancer and calibrated it to Finnish HPV 16 seroprevalence over time. The model was used to estimate the transmission probability of the virus, to look at the effect of changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and smoking on age-specific trends in cancer incidence, and to explore the impact of HPV 16 vaccination. We estimated a high per-partnership transmission probability of HPV 16, of 0.6. The modelling analyses showed that changes in sexual behaviour and smoking accounted, in part, for the increase seen in cervical cancer incidence in 35- to 39-y-old women from 1990 to 1999. At both low (10% in opportunistic immunisation and high (90% in a national immunisation programme coverage of the adolescent population, vaccinating women and men had little benefit over vaccinating women alone. We estimate that vaccinating 90% of young women before sexual debut has the potential to decrease HPV type-specific (e.g., type 16 cervical cancer incidence by 91%. If older women are more likely to have persistent infections and progress to cancer, then vaccination with a duration of protection of less than 15 y could result in an older susceptible cohort and no decrease in cancer incidence. While vaccination has the potential to significantly reduce type-specific cancer incidence, its combination with screening further improves cancer prevention. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccination has the potential to

  11. Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African monsoon in the West African monsoon modeling and evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Yongkang; Sales, Fernando De [University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Lau, W.K.M.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Wu, Man-Li C. [NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Boone, Aaron [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France Toulouse, Toulouse (France); Feng, Jinming [University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dirmeyer, Paul; Guo, Zhichang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Calverton, MD (United States); Kim, Kyu-Myong [University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD (United States); Kitoh, Akio [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Kumar, Vadlamani [National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information Systems, Gaithersburg, MD (United States); Poccard-Leclercq, Isabelle [Universite de Bourgogne, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie UMR5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States); Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Pegion, Phillip [NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Schemm, Jae; Thiaw, Wassila M. [National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Sealy, Andrea [The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, St. James (Barbados); Vintzileos, Augustin [National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Science Applications International Corporation, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Williams, Steven F. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2010-07-15

    This paper briefly presents the West African monsoon (WAM) modeling and evaluation project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models' (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting

  12. Tectonic and erosion-driven uplift for the Gamburtsev Mountains: a preliminary combined landscape analyses and flexural modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraccioli, Fausto; Anderson, Lester; Jamieson, Stewart; Bell, Robin; Rose, Kathryn; Jordan, Tom; Finn, Carol; Damaske, Detlef

    2013-04-01

    whether the modern Gamburtsevs may have been uplifted solely in response to significant changes in Cenozoic erosion patterns during the early stages of East Antarctic ice sheet formation that were superimposed upon an old remnant Permian-age rift flank. To address this question we combine results from: i) analyses of the subglacial landscape of the GSM that includes valley network, hyposometry and geomorphic studies of the fluvial and glacial features identified within the range (Rose et al., 2013 EPSL in review) with; ii) preliminary flexural models of peak uplift caused by the isostatic responses to fluvial and glacial valley incision processes, both within the range and in the adjacent Lambert Glacier region. We also include in our geophysical relief and isostatic model calculations considerations on the major change in erosion rates since Oligocene times and the total amount of incision estimated for the Lambert Glacier system using the values proposed by Tochlin et al. (2012). Our models yield new estimates of peak uplift and regional lowering for continuous and broken-plate approximations that can also be used to assess the range of pre-incision elevation of the "Gamburtsev plateau". Our modelling outputs were also calibrated against the present-day elevations of up to 1500 m a.s.l of uplifted Oligocene-early Miocene glacial-marine sediments in the Lambert Glacier (Hambrey et al., 2000, Geology).

  13. Transcriptomics and proteomics analyses of the PACAP38 influenced ischemic brain in permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion model mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hori Motohide

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction The neuropeptide pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide (PACAP is considered to be a potential therapeutic agent for prevention of cerebral ischemia. Ischemia is a most common cause of death after heart attack and cancer causing major negative social and economic consequences. This study was designed to investigate the effect of PACAP38 injection intracerebroventrically in a mouse model of permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (PMCAO along with corresponding SHAM control that used 0.9% saline injection. Methods Ischemic and non-ischemic brain tissues were sampled at 6 and 24 hours post-treatment. Following behavioral analyses to confirm whether the ischemia has occurred, we investigated the genome-wide changes in gene and protein expression using DNA microarray chip (4x44K, Agilent and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DGE coupled with matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight-mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS, respectively. Western blotting and immunofluorescent staining were also used to further examine the identified protein factor. Results Our results revealed numerous changes in the transcriptome of ischemic hemisphere (ipsilateral treated with PACAP38 compared to the saline-injected SHAM control hemisphere (contralateral. Previously known (such as the interleukin family and novel (Gabra6, Crtam genes were identified under PACAP influence. In parallel, 2-DGE analysis revealed a highly expressed protein spot in the ischemic hemisphere that was identified as dihydropyrimidinase-related protein 2 (DPYL2. The DPYL2, also known as Crmp2, is a marker for the axonal growth and nerve development. Interestingly, PACAP treatment slightly increased its abundance (by 2-DGE and immunostaining at 6 h but not at 24 h in the ischemic hemisphere, suggesting PACAP activates neuronal defense mechanism early on. Conclusions This study provides a detailed inventory of PACAP influenced gene expressions

  14. Development of the System Dynamics Code using Homogeneous Equilibrium Model for S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle Transient Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Seong Jun; Lee, Won Woong; Oh, Bongseong; Lee, Jeong Ik [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The features of the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle come from a small compressing work by designing the compressor inlet close the critical point of CO{sub 2}. This means the system condition can be operating under two-phase or sub-critical phase during transient situations such as changes of cooling system performance, load variations, etc. Since there is no operating MW scale S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle system in the world yet, using an analytical code is the only way to predict the system behavior and develop operating strategies of the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycles. Therefore, the development of a credible system code is an important part for the practical S-CO{sub 2} system research. The current status of the developed system analysis code for S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle transient analyses in KAIST and verification results are presented in this paper. To avoid errors related with convergences of the code during the phase changing flow calculation in GAMMA+ code, the authors have developed a system analysis code using Homogeneous Equilibrium Model (HEM) for the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle transient analysis. The backbone of the in-house code is the GAMMA+1.0 code, but treating the quality of fluid by tracking system enthalpy gradient every time step. Thus, the code adopts pressure and enthalpy as the independent scalar variables to track the system enthalpy for updating the quality of the system every time step. The heat conduction solving method, heat transfer correlation and frictional losses on the pipe are referred from the GAMMA+ code.

  15. Experimental model to evaluate in vivo and in vitro cartilage MR imaging by means of histological analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bittersohl, B.; Mamisch, T.C.; Welsch, G.H.; Stratmann, J.; Forst, R.; Swoboda, B.; Bautz, W.; Rechenberg, B. von; Cavallaro, A.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: Implementation of an experimental model to compare cartilage MR imaging by means of histological analyses. Material and methods: MRI was obtained from 4 patients expecting total knee replacement at 1.5 and/or 3 T prior surgery. The timeframe between pre-op MRI and knee replacement was within two days. Resected cartilage-bone samples were tagged with Ethi-pins to reproduce the histological cutting course. Pre-operative scanning at 1.5 T included following parameters for fast low angle shot (FLASH: TR/TE/FA = 33 ms/6 ms/30 deg., BW = 110 kHz, 120 mm x 120 mm FOV, 256 x 256 matrix, 0.65 mm slice-thickness) and double echo steady state (DESS: TR/TE/FA = 23.7 ms/6.9 ms/40 deg., BW = 130 kHz, 120 x 120 mm FOV, 256 x 256 matrix, 0.65 mm slice-thickness). At 3 T, scan parameters were: FLASH (TR/TE/FA = 12.2 ms/5.1 ms/10 deg., BW = 130 kHz, 170 x 170 mm FOV, 320 x 320, 0.5 mm slice-thickness) and DESS (TR/TE/FA = 15.6 ms/4.5 ms/25 deg., BW = 200 kHz, 135 mm x 150 mm FOV, 288 x 320 matrix, 0.5 mm slice-thickness). Imaging of the specimens was done the same day at 1.5 T. MRI (Noyes) and histological (Mankin) score scales were correlated using the paired t-test. Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of different grades of cartilage degeneration were assessed. Inter-reader and intra-reader reliability was determined using Kappa analysis. Results: Low correlation (sensitivity, specificity) was found for both sequences in normal to mild Mankin grades. Only moderate to severe changes were diagnosed with higher significance and specificity. The use of higher field-strengths was advantageous for both protocols with sensitivity values ranging from 13.6% to 93.3% (FLASH) and 20.5% to 96.2% (DESS). Kappa values ranged from 0.488 to 0.944. Conclusions: Correlating MR images with continuous histological slices was feasible by using three-dimensional imaging, multi-planar-reformat and marker pins. The capability of diagnosing early cartilage changes with high accuracy

  16. Modelling of the spallation reaction: analysis and testing of nuclear models; Simulation de la spallation: analyse et test des modeles nucleaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toccoli, C

    2000-04-03

    The spallation reaction is considered as a 2-step process. First a very quick stage (10{sup -22}, 10{sup -29} s) which corresponds to the individual interaction between the incident projectile and nucleons, this interaction is followed by a series of nucleon-nucleon collisions (intranuclear cascade) during which fast particles are emitted, the nucleus is left in a strongly excited level. Secondly a slower stage (10{sup -18}, 10{sup -19} s) during which the nucleus is expected to de-excite completely. This de-excitation is performed by evaporation of light particles (n, p, d, t, {sup 3}He, {sup 4}He) or/and fission or/and fragmentation. The HETC code has been designed to simulate spallation reactions, this simulation is based on the 2-steps process and on several models of intranuclear cascades (Bertini model, Cugnon model, Helder Duarte model), the evaporation model relies on the statistical theory of Weiskopf-Ewing. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the ability of the HETC code to predict experimental results. A methodology about the comparison of relevant experimental data with results of calculation is presented and a preliminary estimation of the systematic error of the HETC code is proposed. The main problem of cascade models originates in the difficulty of simulating inelastic nucleon-nucleon collisions, the emission of pions is over-estimated and corresponding differential spectra are badly reproduced. The inaccuracy of cascade models has a great impact to determine the excited level of the nucleus at the end of the first step and indirectly on the distribution of final residual nuclei. The test of the evaporation model has shown that the emission of high energy light particles is under-estimated. (A.C.)

  17. Generic linking of finite element models for non-linear static and global dynamic analyses for aircraft structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wit, A.J.; Akcay-Perdahcioglu, Didem; van den Brink, W.M.; de Boer, Andries; Rolfes, R.; Jansen, E.L.

    2011-01-01

    Depending on the type of analysis, Finite Element(FE) models of different fidelity are necessary. Creating these models manually is a labor intensive task. This paper discusses a generic approach for generating FE models of different fidelity from a single reference FE model. These different

  18. Mental model mapping as a new tool to analyse the use of information in decision-making in integrated water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolkman, M. J.; Kok, M.; van der Veen, A.

    The solution of complex, unstructured problems is faced with policy controversy and dispute, unused and misused knowledge, project delay and failure, and decline of public trust in governmental decisions. Mental model mapping (also called concept mapping) is a technique to analyse these difficulties on a fundamental cognitive level, which can reveal experiences, perceptions, assumptions, knowledge and subjective beliefs of stakeholders, experts and other actors, and can stimulate communication and learning. This article presents the theoretical framework from which the use of mental model mapping techniques to analyse this type of problems emerges as a promising technique. The framework consists of the problem solving or policy design cycle, the knowledge production or modelling cycle, and the (computer) model as interface between the cycles. Literature attributes difficulties in the decision-making process to communication gaps between decision makers, stakeholders and scientists, and to the construction of knowledge within different paradigm groups that leads to different interpretation of the problem situation. Analysis of the decision-making process literature indicates that choices, which are made in all steps of the problem solving cycle, are based on an individual decision maker’s frame of perception. This frame, in turn, depends on the mental model residing in the mind of the individual. Thus we identify three levels of awareness on which the decision process can be analysed. This research focuses on the third level. Mental models can be elicited using mapping techniques. In this way, analysing an individual’s mental model can shed light on decision-making problems. The steps of the knowledge production cycle are, in the same manner, ultimately driven by the mental models of the scientist in a specific discipline. Remnants of this mental model can be found in the resulting computer model. The characteristics of unstructured problems (complexity

  19. Item Response Theory Modeling and Categorical Regression Analyses of the Five-Factor Model Rating Form: A Study on Italian Community-Dwelling Adolescent Participants and Adult Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fossati, Andrea; Widiger, Thomas A; Borroni, Serena; Maffei, Cesare; Somma, Antonella

    2017-06-01

    To extend the evidence on the reliability and construct validity of the Five-Factor Model Rating Form (FFMRF) in its self-report version, two independent samples of Italian participants, which were composed of 510 adolescent high school students and 457 community-dwelling adults, respectively, were administered the FFMRF in its Italian translation. Adolescent participants were also administered the Italian translation of the Borderline Personality Features Scale for Children-11 (BPFSC-11), whereas adult participants were administered the Italian translation of the Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM). Cronbach α values were consistent with previous findings; in both samples, average interitem r values indicated acceptable internal consistency for all FFMRF scales. A multidimensional graded item response theory model indicated that the majority of FFMRF items had adequate discrimination parameters; information indices supported the reliability of the FFMRF scales. Both categorical (i.e., item-level) and scale-level regression analyses suggested that the FFMRF scores may predict a nonnegligible amount of variance in the BPFSC-11 total score in adolescent participants, and in the TriPM scale scores in adult participants.

  20. Sensitivity of the direct stop pair production analyses in phenomenological MSSM simplified models with the ATLAS detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Snyder, Ian Michael; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    The sensitivity of the searches for the direct pair production of stops often has been evaluated in simple SUSY scenarios, where only a limited set of supersymmetric particles take part to the stop decay. In this talk, the interpretations of the analyses requiring zero, one or two leptons in the final states to simple but well motivated MSSM scenarios will be discussed.

  1. Microscopic model analyses of proton elastic scattering from diverse targets in the energy range 65 to 400 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dortmans, P.J.; Amos, K.

    1997-01-01

    Two nucleon (NN) effective interactions based upon two-nucleon g matrices have been used in fully microscopic calculations of nonlocal proton-nucleus optical potentials for protons with energies between 65 and 400 MeV. Excellent predictions of the differential cross sections, analysing powers and spin rotations for scattering angles to 60 deg result. (authors)

  2. Analysing conflicts around small-scale gold mining in the Amazon : The contribution of a multi-temporal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salman, Ton; de Theije, Marjo

    Conflict is small-scale gold mining's middle name. In only a very few situations do mining operations take place without some sort of conflict accompanying the activity, and often various conflicting stakeholders struggle for their interests simultaneously. Analyses of such conflicts are typically

  3. Overview of fuel behaviour and core degradation, based on modelling analyses. Overview of fuel behaviour and core degradation, on the basis of modelling results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massara, Simone

    2013-01-01

    Since the very first hours after the accident at Fukushima-Daiichi, numerical simulations by means of severe accident codes have been carried out, aiming at highlighting the key physical phenomena allowing a correct understanding of the sequence of events, and - on a long enough timeline - improving models and methods, in order to reduce the discrepancy between calculated and measured data. A last long-term objective is to support the future decommissioning phase. The presentation summarises some of the available elements on the role of the fuel/cladding-water interaction, which became available only through modelling because of the absence of measured data directly related to the cladding-steam interaction. This presentation also aims at drawing some conclusions on the status of the modelling capabilities of current tools, particularly for the purpose of the foreseen application to ATF fuels: - analyses with MELCOR, MAAP, THALES2 and RELAP5 are presented; - input data are taken from BWR Mark-I Fukushima-Daiichi Units 1, 2 and 3, completed with operational data published by TEPCO. In the case of missing or incomplete data or hypotheses, these are adjusted to reduce the calculation/measurement discrepancy. The behaviour of the accident is well understood on a qualitative level (major trends on RPV pressure and water level, dry-wet and PCV pressure are well represented), allowing a certain level of confidence in the results of the analysis of the zirconium-steam reaction - which is accessible only through numerical simulations. These show an extremely fast sequence of events (here for Unit 1): - the top of fuel is uncovered in 3 hours (after the tsunami); - the steam line breaks at 6.5 hours. Vessel dries at 10 hours, with a heat-up rate in a first moment driven by the decay heat only (∼7 K/min) and afterwards by the chemical heat from Zr-oxidation (over 30 K/min), associated with massive hydrogen production. It appears that the level of uncertainty increases with

  4. Analyse that

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Maurice

    2011-06-15

    The oil industry is starting to implement new technologies such as horizontal drilling and multistage fracking to light oil production. Most of the producers are copying what is done by their coounterparts. Experts say that another approach should be taken because you can get quicker results with a technical analysis using an analytical model than by drilling a lot of wells. In general, producers are also eager to put too many fracs into the ground to inflate initial production rates but this does not increase the cumulative recovery so they are spending more money to end up with the same result. The oil industry still has to work to find a way to optimize production and reservoir management and costs.

  5. Improved bolt models for use in global analyses of storage and transportation casks subject to extra-regulatory loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalan, R.J.; Ammerman, D.J.; Gwinn, K.W.

    2004-01-01

    Transportation and storage casks subjected to extra-regulatory loadings may experience large stresses and strains in key structural components. One of the areas susceptible to these large stresses and strains is the bolted joint retaining any closure lid on an overpack or a canister. Modeling this joint accurately is necessary in evaluating the performance of the cask under extreme loading conditions. However, developing detailed models of a bolt in a large cask finite element model can dramatically increase the computational time, making the analysis prohibitive. Sandia National Laboratories used a series of calibrated, detailed, bolt finite element sub-models to develop a modified-beam bolt-model in order to examine the response of a storage cask and closure to severe accident loadings. The initial sub-models were calibrated for tension and shear loading using test data for large diameter bolts. Next, using the calibrated test model, sub-models of the actual joints were developed to obtain force-displacement curves and failure points for the bolted joint. These functions were used to develop a modified beam element representation of the bolted joint, which could be incorporated into the larger cask finite element model. This paper will address the modeling and assumptions used for the development of the initial calibration models, the joint sub-models and the modified beam model

  6. The Fundamentals of Economic Dynamics and Policy Analyses : Learning through Numerical Examples. Part Ⅳ. Overlapping Generations Model

    OpenAIRE

    Futamura, Hiroshi

    2015-01-01

    An overlapping generations model is an applied dynamic general equilibrium model for which the lifecycle models are employed as main analytical tools. At any point in time, there are overlapping generations consisting of individuals born this year, individuals born last year, individuals born two years ago, and so on. As we saw in the analysis of lifecycle models, each individual makes an optimal consumption-saving plan to maximize lifetime utility over her/his lifecycle. For example, an indi...

  7. Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

    2013-06-01

    · The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  8. State of the art in establishing computed models of adsorption processes to serve as a basis of radionuclide migration assessment for safety analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koss, V.

    1991-01-01

    An important point in safety analysis of an underground repository is adsorption of radionuclides in the overlying cover. Adsorption may be judged according to experimental results or to model calculations. Because of the reliability aspired in safety analyses, it is necessary to strengthen experimental results by theoretical calculations. At the time, there is no single thermodynamic model of adsorption to be agreed on. Therefore, this work reviews existing equilibrium models of adsorption. Limitations of the K d -concept and of adsorption-isotherms according to Freundlich and Langmuir are mentioned. The surface ionisation and complexation edl model is explained in full as is the criticism of this model. The application is stressed of simple surface complexation models to adsorption experiments in natural systems as is experimental and modelling work according to systems from Gorleben. Hints are given how to deal with modelling of adsorption related to Gorleben systems in the future. (orig.) [de

  9. Structured modelling and nonlinear analysis of PEM fuel cells; Strukturierte Modellierung und nichtlineare Analyse von PEM-Brennstoffzellen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanke-Rauschenbach, R.

    2007-10-26

    In the first part of this work a model structuring concept for electrochemical systems is presented. The application of such a concept for the structuring of a process model allows it to combine different fuel cell models to form a whole model family, regardless of their level of detail. Beyond this the concept offers the opportunity to flexibly exchange model entities on different model levels. The second part of the work deals with the nonlinear behaviour of PEM fuel cells. With the help of a simple, spatially lumped and isothermal model, bistable current-voltage characteristics of PEM fuel cells operated with low humidified feed gases are predicted and discussed in detail. The cell is found to exhibit current-voltage curves with pronounced local extrema in a parameter range that is of practical interest when operated at constant feed gas flow rates. (orig.)

  10. From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: how big is the gap and can we bridge it?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.

    2014-01-01

    Policy and decision makers have to make difficult choices to improve the food security of local people against the background of drastic global and local changes. Ex-ante impact assessment using integrated models can help them with these decisions. This review analyses the state of affairs of the

  11. Mental model mapping as a new tool to analyse the use of information in decision-making in integrated water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolkman, Rien; Kok, Matthijs; van der Veen, A.

    2005-01-01

    The solution of complex, unstructured problems is faced with policy controversy and dispute, unused and misused knowledge, project delay and failure, and decline of public trust in governmental decisions. Mental model mapping (also called concept mapping) is a technique to analyse these difficulties

  12. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecanique de simulation numerique du soudage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petelet, M

    2008-07-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  13. Global sensitivity analysis of thermo-mechanical models in numerical weld modelling; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecaniques de simulation numerique du soudage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petelet, M

    2007-10-15

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range {exclamation_point} This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases. The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  14. SPECIFICS OF THE APPLICATIONS OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL IN THE ANALYSES OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko V. Račić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to present the specifics of the application of multiple linear regression model. The economic (financial crisis is analyzed in terms of gross domestic product which is in a function of the foreign trade balance (on one hand and the credit cards, i.e. indebtedness of the population on this basis (on the other hand, in the USA (from 1999. to 2008. We used the extended application model which shows how the analyst should run the whole development process of regression model. This process began with simple statistical features and the application of regression procedures, and ended with residual analysis, intended for the study of compatibility of data and model settings. This paper also analyzes the values of some standard statistics used in the selection of appropriate regression model. Testing of the model is carried out with the use of the Statistics PASW 17 program.

  15. Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data.

  16. Fluid-structure interaction and structural analyses using a comprehensive mitral valve model with 3D chordal structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma, Milan; Einstein, Daniel R; Bloodworth, Charles H; Cochran, Richard P; Yoganathan, Ajit P; Kunzelman, Karyn S

    2017-04-01

    Over the years, three-dimensional models of the mitral valve have generally been organized around a simplified anatomy. Leaflets have been typically modeled as membranes, tethered to discrete chordae typically modeled as one-dimensional, non-linear cables. Yet, recent, high-resolution medical images have revealed that there is no clear boundary between the chordae and the leaflets. In fact, the mitral valve has been revealed to be more of a webbed structure whose architecture is continuous with the chordae and their extensions into the leaflets. Such detailed images can serve as the basis of anatomically accurate, subject-specific models, wherein the entire valve is modeled with solid elements that more faithfully represent the chordae, the leaflets, and the transition between the two. These models have the potential to enhance our understanding of mitral valve mechanics and to re-examine the role of the mitral valve chordae, which heretofore have been considered to be 'invisible' to the fluid and to be of secondary importance to the leaflets. However, these new models also require a rethinking of modeling assumptions. In this study, we examine the conventional practice of loading the leaflets only and not the chordae in order to study the structural response of the mitral valve apparatus. Specifically, we demonstrate that fully resolved 3D models of the mitral valve require a fluid-structure interaction analysis to correctly load the valve even in the case of quasi-static mechanics. While a fluid-structure interaction mode is still more computationally expensive than a structural-only model, we also show that advances in GPU computing have made such models tractable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Implementation into a CFD code of neutron kinetics and fuel pin models for nuclear reactor transient analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhao; Chen, Xue-Nong; Rineiski, Andrei; Zhao Pengcheng; Chen Hongli

    2014-01-01

    Safety analysis is an important tool for justifying the safety of nuclear reactors. The traditional method for nuclear reactor safety analysis is performed by means of system codes, which use one-dimensional lumped-parameter method to model real reactor systems. However, there are many multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulic phenomena cannot be predicated using traditional one-dimensional system codes. This problem is extremely important for pool-type nuclear systems. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes are powerful numerical simulation tools to solve multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulics problems, which are widely used in industrial applications for single phase flows. In order to use general CFD codes to solve nuclear reactor transient problems, some additional models beyond general ones are required. Neutron kinetics model for power calculation and fuel pin model for fuel pin temperature calculation are two important models of these additional models. The motivation of this work is to develop an advance numerical simulation method for nuclear reactor safety analysis by implementing neutron kinetics model and fuel pin model into general CFD codes. In this paper, the Point Kinetics Model (PKM) and Fuel Pin Model (FPM) are implemented into a general CFD code FLUENT. The improved FLUENT was called as FLUENT/PK. The mathematical models and implementary method of FLUENT/PK are descripted and two demonstration application cases, e.g. the unprotected transient overpower (UTOP) accident of a Liquid Metal cooled Fast Reactor (LMFR) and the unprotected beam overpower (UBOP) accident of an Accelerator Driven System (ADS), are presented. (author)

  18. QTL analyses on genotype-specific component traits in a crop simulation model for capsicum annuum L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wubs, A.M.; Heuvelink, E.; Dieleman, J.A.; Magan, J.J.; Palloix, A.; Eeuwijk, van F.A.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: QTL for a complex trait like yield tend to be unstable across environments and show QTL by environment interaction. Direct improvement of complex traits by selecting on QTL is therefore difficult. For improvement of complex traits, crop growth models can be useful, as such models can

  19. A CFBPN Artificial Neural Network Model for Educational Qualitative Data Analyses: Example of Students' Attitudes Based on Kellerts' Typologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yorek, Nurettin; Ugulu, Ilker

    2015-01-01

    In this study, artificial neural networks are suggested as a model that can be "trained" to yield qualitative results out of a huge amount of categorical data. It can be said that this is a new approach applied in educational qualitative data analysis. In this direction, a cascade-forward back-propagation neural network (CFBPN) model was…

  20. Thermomechanical repository and shaft response analyses using the CAVS [Cracking And Void Strain] jointed rock model: Draft final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dial, B.W.; Maxwell, D.E.

    1986-12-01

    Numerical studies of the far-field repository and near-field shaft response for a nuclear waste repository in bedded salt have been performed with the STEALTH computer code using the CAVS model for jointed rock. CAVS is a constitutive model that can simulate the slip and dilatancy of fracture planes in a jointed rock mass. The initiation and/or propagation of fractures can also be modeled when stress intensity criteria are met. The CAVS models are based on the joint models proposed with appropriate modifications for numerical simulations. The STEALTH/CAVS model has been previously used to model (1) explosive fracturing of a wellbore, (2) earthquake effects on tunnels in a generic nuclear waste repository, (3) horizontal emplacement for a nuclear waste repository in jointed granite, and (4) tunnel response in jointed rock. The use of CAVS to model far-field repository and near-field shaft response was different from previous approaches because it represented a spatially oriented approach to rock response and failure, rather than the traditional stress invariant formulation for yielding. In addition, CAVS tracked the response of the joint apertures to the time-dependent stress changes in the far-field repository and near-field shaft regions. 28 refs., 21 figs., 11 tabs

  1. Combining hydraulic model, hydrogeomorphological observations and chemical analyses of surface waters to improve knowledge on karst flash floods genesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Raynaud

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During a flood event over a karst watershed, the connections between surface and ground waters appear to be complex ones. The karst may attenuate surface floods by absorbing water or contribute to the surface flood by direct contribution of karst waters in the rivers (perennial and overflowing springs and by diffuse resurgence along the hillslopes. If it is possible to monitor each known outlet of a karst system, the diffuse contribution is yet difficult to assess. Furthermore, all these connections vary over time according to several factors such as the water content of the soil and underground, the rainfall characteristics, the runoff pathways. Therefore, the contribution of each compartment is generally difficult to assess, and flood dynamics are not fully understood. To face these misunderstandings and difficulties, we analysed surface waters during six recent flood events in the Lirou watershed (a karst tributary of the Lez, in South of France. Because of the specific chemical signature of karst waters, chemical analyses can supply information about water pathways and flood dynamics. Then, we used the dilution law to combine chemical results, flow data and field observations to assess the dynamics of the karst component of the flood. To end, we discussed the surface or karst origin of the waters responsible for the apparent runoff coefficient rise during flash karst flood.

  2. A Review On Accuracy and Uncertainty of Spatial Data and Analyses with special reference to Urban and Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendran, A. A.; Lakshmanan, G.

    2014-11-01

    Data quality for GIS processing and analysis is becoming an increased concern due to the accelerated application of GIS technology for problem solving and decision making roles. Uncertainty in the geographic representation of the real world arises as these representations are incomplete. Identification of the sources of these uncertainties and the ways in which they operate in GIS based representations become crucial in any spatial data representation and geospatial analysis applied to any field of application. This paper reviews the articles on the various components of spatial data quality and various uncertainties inherent in them and special focus is paid to two fields of application such as Urban Simulation and Hydrological Modelling. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatio-temporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. Cellular Automata (CA) model is one of the simulation models, which randomly selects potential cells for urbanisation and the transition rules evaluate the properties of the cell and its neighbour. Uncertainty arising from CA modelling is assessed mainly using sensitivity analysis including Monte Carlo simulation method. Likewise, the importance of hydrological uncertainty analysis has been emphasized in recent years and there is an urgent need to incorporate uncertainty estimation into water resources assessment procedures. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a continuous time watershed model to evaluate various impacts of land use management and climate on hydrology and water quality. Hydrological model uncertainties using SWAT model are dealt primarily by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method.

  3. Mechanical analyses on the digital behaviour of the Tokay gecko (Gekko gecko) based on a multi-level directional adhesion model

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Xuan; Wang, Xiaojie; Mei, Tao; Sun, Shaoming

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a multi-level hierarchical model for the Tokay gecko (Gekko gecko) adhesive system and analyses the digital behaviour of the G. gecko under macro/meso-level scale. The model describes the structures of G. gecko's adhesive system from the nano-level spatulae to the sub-millimetre-level lamella. The G. gecko's seta is modelled using inextensible fibril based on Euler's elastica theorem. Considering the side contact of the spatular pads of the seta on the flat and rigid subst...

  4. Development of a 3-dimensional calculation model of the Danish research reactor DR3 to analyse a proposal to a new core design called ring-core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nonboel, E

    1985-07-01

    A 3-dimensional calculation model of the Danish research reactor DR3 has been developed. Demands of a more effective utilization of the reactor and its facilities has required a more detailed calculation tool than applied so far. A great deal of attention has been devoted to the treatment of the coarse control arms. The model has been tested against measurements with satisfying results. Furthermore the model has been used to analyse a proposal to a new core design called ring-core where 4 central fuel elements are replaced by 4 dummy elements to increase the thermal flux in the center of the reactor. (author)

  5. Analysing the accuracy of pavement performance models in the short and long terms: GMDH and ANFIS methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziari, H.; Sobhani, J.; Ayoubinejad, J.; Hartmann, Timo

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of pavement performance prediction is a critical part of pavement management and directly influences maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Many models with various specifications have been proposed by researchers and used by agencies. This study presents nine variables affecting

  6. Dynamic modeling and analyses of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation process to produce bio-ethanol from rice straw.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Jordon; Su, Wen-Jun; Chien, I-Lung; Chang, Der-Ming; Chou, Sheng-Hsin; Zhan, Rui-Yu

    2010-02-01

    The rice straw, an agricultural waste from Asians' main provision, was collected as feedstock to convert cellulose into ethanol through the enzymatic hydrolysis and followed by the fermentation process. When the two process steps are performed sequentially, it is referred to as separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF). The steps can also be performed simultaneously, i.e., simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF). In this research, the kinetic model parameters of the cellulose saccharification process step using the rice straw as feedstock is obtained from real experimental data of cellulase hydrolysis. Furthermore, this model can be combined with a fermentation model at high glucose and ethanol concentrations to form a SSF model. The fermentation model is based on cybernetic approach from a paper in the literature with an extension of including both the glucose and ethanol inhibition terms to approach more to the actual plants. Dynamic effects of the operating variables in the enzymatic hydrolysis and the fermentation models will be analyzed. The operation of the SSF process will be compared to the SHF process. It is shown that the SSF process is better in reducing the processing time when the product (ethanol) concentration is high. The means to improve the productivity of the overall SSF process, by properly using aeration during the batch operation will also be discussed.

  7. Modeling seasonal leptospirosis transmission and its association with rainfall and temperature in Thailand using time-series and ARIMAX analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Modchang, Charin; Lenbury, Yongwimon; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong

    2012-07-01

    To study the number of leptospirosis cases in relations to the seasonal pattern, and its association with climate factors. Time series analysis was used to study the time variations in the number of leptospirosis cases. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used in data curve fitting and predicting the next leptospirosis cases. We found that the amount of rainfall was correlated to leptospirosis cases in both regions of interest, namely the northern and northeastern region of Thailand, while the temperature played a role in the northeastern region only. The use of multivariate ARIMA (ARIMAX) model showed that factoring in rainfall (with an 8 months lag) yields the best model for the northern region while the model, which factors in rainfall (with a 10 months lag) and temperature (with an 8 months lag) was the best for the northeastern region. The models are able to show the trend in leptospirosis cases and closely fit the recorded data in both regions. The models can also be used to predict the next seasonal peak quite accurately. Copyright © 2012 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A mechanistic ecohydrological model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water-controlled environments. 2. Spatiotemporal analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fatichi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available An ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris (T&C described in the companion paper is applied to two semiarid systems characterized by different climate and vegetation cover conditions. The Lucky Hills watershed in Arizona represents a typical small, ``unit-source'' catchment of a desert shrub system of the U.S. southwest. Two nested basins of the Reynolds Creek Experimental watershed (Idaho, U.S.A., the Reynolds Creek Mountain East and Tollgate catchments, are representative of a semiarid cold climate with seasonal snow cover. Both exhibit a highly non-uniform vegetation cover. A range of ecohydrological metrics of the long-term model performance is presented to highlight the model capabilities in reproducing hydrological and vegetation dynamics both at the plot and the watershed scales. A diverse set of observations is used to confirm the simulated dynamics. Highly satisfactory results are obtained without significant (or any calibration efforts despite the large phase-space dimensionality of the model, the uncertainty of imposed boundary conditions, and limited data availability. It is argued that a significant investment into the model design based on the description of physical, biophysical, and ecological processes leads to such a consistent simulation skill. The simulated patterns mimic the outcome of hydrological and vegetation dynamics with high realism, as confirmed from spatially distributed remote sensing data. Further community efforts are warranted to address the issue of thorough quantitative assessment. The current lack of appropriate data hampers the development and testing of process-based ecohydrological models. It is further argued that the mechanistic nature of the T&C model can be valuable for designing virtual experiments and developing questions of scientific inquiry at a range of spatiotemporal scales.

  9. Modeling the potential risk factors of bovine viral diarrhea prevalence in Egypt using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelfattah M. Selim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The present cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and potential risk factors associated with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV disease in cattle and buffaloes in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with the disease using logistic regression (LR models, and to fit the best predictive model for the current data. Materials and Methods: A total of 740 blood samples were collected within November 2012-March 2013 from animals aged between 6 months and 3 years. The potential risk factors studied were species, age, sex, and herd location. All serum samples were examined with indirect ELIZA test for antibody detection. Data were analyzed with different statistical approaches such as Chi-square test, odds ratios (OR, univariable, and multivariable LR models. Results: Results revealed a non-significant association between being seropositive with BVDV and all risk factors, except for species of animal. Seroprevalence percentages were 40% and 23% for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. OR for all categories were close to one with the highest OR for cattle relative to buffaloes, which was 2.237. Likelihood ratio tests showed a significant drop of the -2LL from univariable LR to multivariable LR models. Conclusion: There was an evidence of high seroprevalence of BVDV among cattle as compared with buffaloes with the possibility of infection in different age groups of animals. In addition, multivariable LR model was proved to provide more information for association and prediction purposes relative to univariable LR models and Chi-square tests if we have more than one predictor.

  10. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

    2015-01-01

    Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.

  11. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, V

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  12. Development of the financial model for analyses on economic performances of nuclear facilities and examples of its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi; Ueno, Seiichi; Kimura, Shigeru; Yuasa, Tadao.

    1988-10-01

    On the assumption of the commercialization stage of technologies, the analysis on performances in financial operation based on simulation studies is one of important study subjects in the field of the system analysis and economic assessments of nuclear technologies. However, economic assessments on financial performances of such complex industries as nuclear power based on nuclear fuel cycle industries, or as electric utilities composed of hydro, fossil, nuclear power stations are complicated, and the adoption of conventional financial model is insufficient in the case of nuclear technologies which have such special financial process as decommissioning. We, therefore, develop the computer simulation model that can analyze financial performances of nuclear facilities. In this report, the derivation of equations and outlines of the model are explained. Additionally, examples of hypothetical financial simulation studies on a coal-gasoline plant, nuclear waste industries, and analysis on economic perspectives of small size nuclear reactors for electric utilities are indicated. (author)

  13. Methods and theory in bone modeling drift: comparing spatial analyses of primary bone distributions in the human humerus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggiano, Corey M; Maggiano, Isabel S; Tiesler, Vera G; Chi-Keb, Julio R; Stout, Sam D

    2016-01-01

    This study compares two novel methods quantifying bone shaft tissue distributions, and relates observations on human humeral growth patterns for applications in anthropological and anatomical research. Microstructural variation in compact bone occurs due to developmental and mechanically adaptive circumstances that are 'recorded' by forming bone and are important for interpretations of growth, health, physical activity, adaptation, and identity in the past and present. Those interpretations hinge on a detailed understanding of the modeling process by which bones achieve their diametric shape, diaphyseal curvature, and general position relative to other elements. Bone modeling is a complex aspect of growth, potentially causing the shaft to drift transversely through formation and resorption on opposing cortices. Unfortunately, the specifics of modeling drift are largely unknown for most skeletal elements. Moreover, bone modeling has seen little quantitative methodological development compared with secondary bone processes, such as intracortical remodeling. The techniques proposed here, starburst point-count and 45° cross-polarization hand-drawn histomorphometry, permit the statistical and populational analysis of human primary tissue distributions and provide similar results despite being suitable for different applications. This analysis of a pooled archaeological and modern skeletal sample confirms the importance of extreme asymmetry in bone modeling as a major determinant of microstructural variation in diaphyses. Specifically, humeral drift is posteromedial in the human humerus, accompanied by a significant rotational trend. In general, results encourage the usage of endocortical primary bone distributions as an indicator and summary of bone modeling drift, enabling quantitative analysis by direction and proportion in other elements and populations. © 2015 Anatomical Society.

  14. Recent progress in biomass burning research: a perspective from analyses of satellite data and model studies. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    Significant progress has been made in using satellite data to provide bottom-up constraints on biomass burning (BB) emissions. However, inverse studies with CO satellite data imply that tropical emissions are underestimated by current inventories, while model simulations of the ARCTAS period imply that the FLAMBE estimates of extratropical emissions are significantly overestimated. Injection heights of emissions from BB have been quantified recently using MISR data, and these data provide some constraints on 1-d plume models. I will discuss recent results in these areas, highlighting future research needs.

  15. Using synthetic data to evaluate multiple regression and principal component analyses for statistical modeling of daily building energy consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reddy, T.A. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)); Claridge, D.E. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States))

    1994-01-01

    Multiple regression modeling of monitored building energy use data is often faulted as a reliable means of predicting energy use on the grounds that multicollinearity between the regressor variables can lead both to improper interpretation of the relative importance of the various physical regressor parameters and to a model with unstable regressor coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) has the potential to overcome such drawbacks. While a few case studies have already attempted to apply this technique to building energy data, the objectives of this study were to make a broader evaluation of PCA and multiple regression analysis (MRA) and to establish guidelines under which one approach is preferable to the other. Four geographic locations in the US with different climatic conditions were selected and synthetic data sequence representative of daily energy use in large institutional buildings were generated in each location using a linear model with outdoor temperature, outdoor specific humidity and solar radiation as the three regression variables. MRA and PCA approaches were then applied to these data sets and their relative performances were compared. Conditions under which PCA seems to perform better than MRA were identified and preliminary recommendations on the use of either modeling approach formulated. (orig.)

  16. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  17. Greenhouse gas network design using backward Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling – Part 2: Sensitivity analyses and South African test case

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nickless, A

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available observation of atmospheric CO(sub2) concentrations at fixed monitoring stations. The LPDM model, which can be used to derive the sensitivity matrix used in an inversion, was run for each potential site for the months of July (representative of the Southern...

  18. The mental health care model in Brazil: analyses of the funding, governance processes, and mechanisms of assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Lavras Trapé

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE This study aims to analyze the current status of the mental health care model of the Brazilian Unified Health System, according to its funding, governance processes, and mechanisms of assessment. METHODS We have carried out a documentary analysis of the ordinances, technical reports, conference reports, normative resolutions, and decrees from 2009 to 2014. RESULTS This is a time of consolidation of the psychosocial model, with expansion of the health care network and inversion of the funding for community services with a strong emphasis on the area of crack cocaine and other drugs. Mental health is an underfunded area within the chronically underfunded Brazilian Unified Health System. The governance model constrains the progress of essential services, which creates the need for the incorporation of a process of regionalization of the management. The mechanisms of assessment are not incorporated into the health policy in the bureaucratic field. CONCLUSIONS There is a need to expand the global funding of the area of health, specifically mental health, which has been shown to be a successful policy. The current focus of the policy seems to be archaic in relation to the precepts of the psychosocial model. Mechanisms of assessment need to be expanded.

  19. Mind the gaps: a state-space model for analysing the dynamics of North Sea herring spawning components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payne, Mark

    2010-01-01

    the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual...

  20. Adjusting the Adjusted X[superscript 2]/df Ratio Statistic for Dichotomous Item Response Theory Analyses: Does the Model Fit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, Louis; Drasgow, Fritz

    2012-01-01

    Two Monte Carlo simulation studies investigated the effectiveness of the mean adjusted X[superscript 2]/df statistic proposed by Drasgow and colleagues and, because of problems with the method, a new approach for assessing the goodness of fit of an item response theory model was developed. It has been previously recommended that mean adjusted…

  1. Exploratory Analyses To Improve Model Fit: Errors Due to Misspecification and a Strategy To Reduce Their Occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Samuel B.; Thompson, Marilyn S.; Poirier, Jennifer

    1999-01-01

    The use of Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests in specification searches and the efforts that involve the addition of extraneous parameters to models are discussed. Presented are a rationale and strategy for conducting specification searches in two stages that involve adding parameters to LM tests to maximize fit and then deleting parameters not needed…

  2. Radiation transport analyses for IFMIF design by the Attila software using a Monte-Carlo source model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arter, W.; Loughlin, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate calculation of the neutron transport through the shielding of the IFMIF test cell, defined by CAD, is a difficult task for several reasons. The ability of the powerful deterministic radiation transport code Attila, to do this rapidly and reliably has been studied. Three models of increasing geometrical complexity were produced from the CAD using the CADfix software. A fourth model was produced to represent transport within the cell. The work also involved the conversion of the Vitenea-IEF database for high energy neutrons into a format usable by Attila, and the conversion of a particle source specified in MCNP wssaformat to a form usable by Attila. The final model encompassed the entire test cell environment, with only minor modifications. On a state-of-the-art PC, Attila took approximately 3 h to perform the calculations, as a consequence of a careful mesh 'layering'. The results strongly suggest that Attila will be a valuable tool for modelling radiation transport in IFMIF, and for similar problems

  3. A mathematical high bar-human body model for analysing and interpreting mechanical-energetic processes on the high bar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, A; Brüggemann, G P

    1998-12-01

    The aims of this study were: 1. To study the transfer of energy between the high bar and the gymnast. 2. To develop criteria from the utilisation of high bar elasticity and the utilisation of muscle capacity to assess the effectiveness of a movement solution. 3. To study the influence of varying segment movement upon release parameters. For these purposes a model of the human body attached to the high bar (high bar-human body model) was developed. The human body was modelled using a 15-segment body system. The joint-beam element method (superelement) was employed for modelling the high bar. A superelement consists of four rigid segments connected by joints (two Cardan joints and one rotational-translational joint) and springs (seven rotation springs and one tension-compression spring). The high bar was modelled using three superelements. The input data required for the high bar human body model were collected with video-kinematographic (50 Hz) and dynamometric (500 Hz) techniques. Masses and moments of inertia of the 15 segments were calculated using the data from the Zatsiorsky et al. (1984) model. There are two major phases characteristic of the giant swing prior to dismounts from the high bar. In the first phase the gymnast attempts to supply energy to the high bar-humanbody system through muscle activity and to store this energy in the high bar. The difference between the energy transferred to the high bar and the reduction in the total energy of the body could be adopted as a criterion for the utilisation of high bar elasticity. The energy previously transferred into the high bar is returned to the body during the second phase. An advantageous increase in total body energy at the end of the exercise could only be obtained through muscle energy supply. An index characterising the utilisation of muscle capacity was developed out of the difference between the increase in total body energy and the energy returned from the high bar. A delayed and initially slow but

  4. The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities P{sub f,i}, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for P{sub f,i} is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for P{sub f,i} is been used. (Author)

  5. Updated model for radionuclide transport in the near-surface till at Forsmark - Implementation of decay chains and sensitivity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pique, Angels; Pekala, Marek; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Trinchero, Paolo; Vries, Luis Manuel de

    2013-02-01

    The Forsmark area has been proposed for potential siting of a deep underground (geological) repository for radioactive waste in Sweden. Safety assessment of the repository requires radionuclide transport from the disposal depth to recipients at the surface to be studied quantitatively. The near-surface quaternary deposits at Forsmark are considered a pathway for potential discharge of radioactivity from the underground facility to the biosphere, thus radionuclide transport in this system has been extensively investigated over the last years. The most recent work of Pique and co-workers (reported in SKB report R-10-30) demonstrated that in case of release of radioactivity the near-surface sedimentary system at Forsmark would act as an important geochemical barrier, retarding the transport of reactive radionuclides through a combination of retention processes. In this report the conceptual model of radionuclide transport in the quaternary till at Forsmark has been updated, by considering recent revisions regarding the near-surface lithology. In addition, the impact of important conceptual assumptions made in the model has been evaluated through a series of deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) sensitivity calculations. The sensitivity study focused on the following effects: 1. Radioactive decay of 135 Cs, 59 Ni, 230 Th and 226 Ra and effects on their transport. 2. Variability in key geochemical parameters, such as the composition of the deep groundwater, availability of sorbing materials in the till, and mineral equilibria. 3. Variability in hydraulic parameters, such as the definition of hydraulic boundaries, and values of hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and the deep groundwater inflow rate. The overarching conclusion from this study is that the current implementation of the model is robust (the model is largely insensitive to variations in the parameters within the studied ranges) and conservative (the Base Case calculations have a tendency to

  6. Updated model for radionuclide transport in the near-surface till at Forsmark - Implementation of decay chains and sensitivity analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Pekala, Marek; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Trinchero, Paolo; Vries, Luis Manuel de [Amphos 21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain)

    2013-02-15

    The Forsmark area has been proposed for potential siting of a deep underground (geological) repository for radioactive waste in Sweden. Safety assessment of the repository requires radionuclide transport from the disposal depth to recipients at the surface to be studied quantitatively. The near-surface quaternary deposits at Forsmark are considered a pathway for potential discharge of radioactivity from the underground facility to the biosphere, thus radionuclide transport in this system has been extensively investigated over the last years. The most recent work of Pique and co-workers (reported in SKB report R-10-30) demonstrated that in case of release of radioactivity the near-surface sedimentary system at Forsmark would act as an important geochemical barrier, retarding the transport of reactive radionuclides through a combination of retention processes. In this report the conceptual model of radionuclide transport in the quaternary till at Forsmark has been updated, by considering recent revisions regarding the near-surface lithology. In addition, the impact of important conceptual assumptions made in the model has been evaluated through a series of deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) sensitivity calculations. The sensitivity study focused on the following effects: 1. Radioactive decay of {sup 135}Cs, {sup 59}Ni, {sup 230}Th and {sup 226}Ra and effects on their transport. 2. Variability in key geochemical parameters, such as the composition of the deep groundwater, availability of sorbing materials in the till, and mineral equilibria. 3. Variability in hydraulic parameters, such as the definition of hydraulic boundaries, and values of hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and the deep groundwater inflow rate. The overarching conclusion from this study is that the current implementation of the model is robust (the model is largely insensitive to variations in the parameters within the studied ranges) and conservative (the Base Case calculations have a

  7. Entropic potential field formed for a linear-motor protein near a filament: Statistical-mechanical analyses using simple models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amano, Ken-Ichi; Yoshidome, Takashi; Iwaki, Mitsuhiro; Suzuki, Makoto; Kinoshita, Masahiro

    2010-07-28

    We report a new progress in elucidating the mechanism of the unidirectional movement of a linear-motor protein (e.g., myosin) along a filament (e.g., F-actin). The basic concept emphasized here is that a potential field is entropically formed for the protein on the filament immersed in solvent due to the effect of the translational displacement of solvent molecules. The entropic potential field is strongly dependent on geometric features of the protein and the filament, their overall shapes as well as details of the polyatomic structures. The features and the corresponding field are judiciously adjusted by the binding of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to the protein, hydrolysis of ATP into adenosine diphosphate (ADP)+Pi, and release of Pi and ADP. As the first step, we propose the following physical picture: The potential field formed along the filament for the protein without the binding of ATP or ADP+Pi to it is largely different from that for the protein with the binding, and the directed movement is realized by repeated switches from one of the fields to the other. To illustrate the picture, we analyze the spatial distribution of the entropic potential between a large solute and a large body using the three-dimensional integral equation theory. The solute is modeled as a large hard sphere. Two model filaments are considered as the body: model 1 is a set of one-dimensionally connected large hard spheres and model 2 is a double helical structure formed by two sets of connected large hard spheres. The solute and the filament are immersed in small hard spheres forming the solvent. The major findings are as follows. The solute is strongly confined within a narrow space in contact with the filament. Within the space there are locations with sharply deep local potential minima along the filament, and the distance between two adjacent locations is equal to the diameter of the large spheres constituting the filament. The potential minima form a ringlike domain in model 1

  8. Analyses of the Photospheric Magnetic Dynamics in Solar Active Region 11117 Using an Advanced CESE-MHD Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Chaowei [SIGMA Weather Group, State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL (United States); Wu, Shi T. [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL (United States); Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, AL (United States); Feng, Xueshang, E-mail: cwjiang@spaceweather.ac.cn [SIGMA Weather Group, State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2016-05-10

    In this study, the photospheric vector magnetograms obtained by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory are used as boundary conditions for a CESE-MHD model to investigate some photosphere characteristics around the time of a confined flare in solar active region NOAA AR 11117. We report our attempt of characterizing a more realistic solar atmosphere by including a plasma with temperature stratified from the photosphere to the corona in the CESE-MHD model. The resulted photospheric transverse flow is comparable to the apparent movements of the magnetic flux features that demonstrates shearing and rotations. We calculated the relevant parameters such as the magnetic energy flux and helicity flux, and with analysis of these parameters, we find that magnetic non-potentiality is transported across the photosphere into the corona in the simulated time interval, which might provide a favorable condition for producing the flare.

  9. Strategic Marketing for Indonesian Plywood Industry: An Analyse by using Porter Five Forces Model and Generic Strategy Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Makkarennu; Nakayasu, A.; Osozawa, K.; Ichikawa, M.

    2014-01-01

    The target for a marketing strategy is to find a way of achieving a sustainable competitive advantage over the other competing products and firms in a market.Good strategy serves as a road map for effective action. Porter???s five forces model and three generic strategies were used to evaluate the structure and the strategy for positioning of plywood industry in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Qualitative research was carried out by using in-depth interview method. Having expressed either agree...

  10. Bridging Research and Policy in Energy Transition. Contributing to shape energy and climate policies through economic modelling and analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-11-01

    The growth model of the 20. century relied heavily on the exploitation of fossil energy and natural resources extracted at low cost. Yet, the depletion of these resources, the upward trend of their prices over the long term and the consequences of their use for the environment and climate are now challenging the sustainability of this model. The notion of energy transition is directed at rethinking the use of energy resources and natural capital to reach an economic growth that mitigates negative environmental effects, without sacrificing the well-being of populations. Turning this idea into action is a challenging task. AFD has designed and funded research and technical cooperation projects in order to inform decisions on the short-term cost and long-term impact of measures designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy regimes. Using tools for empirical economic analysis (particularly 'economy-energy' models), these projects have been carried out in several intervention settings, including South Africa, China and Mexico, which are discussed in this paper

  11. Respiratory system model for quasistatic pulmonary pressure-volume (P-V) curve: inflation-deflation loop analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, R; Narusawa, U

    2008-06-01

    A respiratory system model (RSM) is developed for the deflation process of a quasistatic pressure-volume (P-V) curve, following the model for the inflation process reported earlier. In the RSM of both the inflation and the deflation limb, a respiratory system consists of a large population of basic alveolar elements, each consisting of a piston-spring-cylinder subsystem. A normal distribution of the basic elements is derived from Boltzmann statistical model with the alveolar closing (opening) pressure as the distribution parameter for the deflation (inflation) process. An error minimization by the method of least squares applied to existing P-V loop data from two different data sources confirms that a simultaneous inflation-deflation analysis is required for an accurate determination of RSM parameters. Commonly used terms such as lower inflection point, upper inflection point, and compliance are examined based on the P-V equations, on the distribution function, as well as on the geometric and physical properties of the basic alveolar element.

  12. Modelling software failures of digital I and C in probabilistic safety analyses based on the TELEPERM registered XS operating experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jockenhoevel-Barttfeld, Mariana; Taurines Andre; Baeckstroem, Ola; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Porthin, Markus; Tyrvaeinen, Tero

    2015-01-01

    Digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems appear as upgrades in existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) and in new plant designs. In order to assess the impact of digital system failures, quantifiable reliability models are needed along with data for digital systems that are compatible with existing probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The paper focuses on the modelling of software failures of digital I and C systems in probabilistic assessments. An analysis of software faults, failures and effects is presented to derive relevant failure modes of system and application software for the PSA. The estimations of software failure probabilities are based on an analysis of the operating experience of TELEPERM registered XS (TXS). For the assessment of application software failures the analysis combines the use of the TXS operating experience at an application function level combined with conservative engineering judgments. Failure probabilities to actuate on demand and of spurious actuation of typical reactor protection application are estimated. Moreover, the paper gives guidelines for the modelling of software failures in the PSA. The strategy presented in this paper is generic and can be applied to different software platforms and their applications.

  13. A finite-volume model of a parabolic trough photovoltaic/thermal collector: Energetic and exergetic analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calise, Francesco; Palombo, Adolfo; Vanoli, Laura

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed finite-volume model of a concentrating photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) solar collector. The PVT solar collector consists in a parabolic trough concentrator and a linear triangular receiver. The bottom surfaces of the triangular receiver are equipped with triple-junction cells whereas the top surface is covered by an absorbing surface. The cooling fluid (water) flows inside a channel along the longitudinal direction of the PVT collector. The system was discretized along its axis and, for each slice of the discretized computational domain, mass and energy balances were considered. The model allows one to evaluate both thermodynamic and electrical parameters along the axis of the PVT collector. Then, for each slice of the computational domain, exergy balances were also considered in order to evaluate the corresponding exergy destruction rate and exergetic efficiency. Therefore, the model also calculates the magnitude of the irreversibilities inside the collector and it allows one to detect where these irreversibilities occur. A sensitivity analysis is also performed with the scope to evaluate the effect of the variation of the main design/environmental parameters on the energetic and exergetic performance of the PVT collector. -- Highlights: ► The paper investigates an innovative concentrating photovoltaic thermal solar collector. ► The collector is equipped with triple-junction photovoltaic layers. ► A local exergetic analysis is performed in order to detect sources of irreversibilities. ► Irreversibilities are mainly due to the heat transfer between sun and PVT collector.

  14. Model analyses of atmospheric mercury: present air quality and effects of transpacific transport on the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Tao, Z.

    2013-11-01

    Atmospheric mercury is a toxic air and water pollutant that is of significant concern because of its effects on human health and ecosystems. A mechanistic representation of the atmospheric mercury cycle is developed for the state-of-the-art global climate-chemistry model, CAM-Chem (Community Atmospheric Model with Chemistry). The model simulates the emission, transport, transformation and deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) in three forms: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), reactive mercury (Hg(II)), and particulate mercury (PHg). Emissions of mercury include those from human, land, ocean, biomass burning and volcano related sources. Land emissions are calculated based on surface solar radiation flux and skin temperature. A simplified air-sea mercury exchange scheme is used to calculate emissions from the oceans. The chemistry mechanism includes the oxidation of Hg(0) in gaseous phase by ozone with temperature dependence, OH, H2O2 and chlorine. Aqueous chemistry includes both oxidation and reduction of Hg(0). Transport and deposition of mercury species are calculated through adapting the original formulations in CAM-Chem. The CAM-Chem model with mercury is driven by present meteorology to simulate the present mercury air quality during the 1999-2001 period. The resulting surface concentrations of total gaseous mercury (TGM) are then compared with the observations from worldwide sites. Simulated wet depositions of mercury over the continental United States are compared to the observations from 26 Mercury Deposition Network stations to test the wet deposition simulations. The evaluations of gaseous concentrations and wet deposition confirm a strong capability for the CAM-Chem mercury mechanism to simulate the atmospheric mercury cycle. The general reproduction of global TGM concentrations and the overestimation on South Africa indicate that model simulations of TGM are seriously affected by emissions. The comparison to wet deposition indicates that wet deposition patterns

  15. Density dependent forces and large basis structure models in the analyses of 12C(p,p') reactions at 135 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauhoff, W.; Collins, S.F.; Henderson, R.S.

    1983-01-01

    Differential cross-sections have been measured for the elastic and inelastic scattering of 135 MeV protons from 12 C. The data from the transitions to 9 select states up to 18.3 MeV in excitation have been analysed using a distorted wave approximation with various microscopic model nuclear structure transition densities and free and density dependent two nucleon t-matrices. Clear signatures of the density dependence of the t-matrix are defined and the utility of select transitions to test different attributes of that t-matrix when good nuclear structure models are used is established

  16. Bisphosphonate effects in rat unloaded hindlimb bone loss model: three-dimensional microcomputed tomographic, histomorphometric, and densitometric analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barou, O; Lafage-Proust, M H; Martel, C; Thomas, T; Tirode, F; Laroche, N; Barbier, A; Alexandre, C; Vico, L

    1999-10-01

    The effects of antiresorptive drugs on bone loss remain unclear. Using three-dimensional microtomography, dual X-ray/densitometry, and histomorphometry, we evaluated tiludronate effects in the bone loss model of immobilization in tail-suspended rats after 7, 13, and 23 days. Seventy-eight 12-week-old Wistar male rats were assigned to 13 groups: 1 baseline group, and for each time point, 1 control group treated with vehicle and three tail-suspended groups treated with either tiludronate (0.5 or 5 mg/kg) or vehicle, administered s. c. every other day, during the last week before sacrifice. In primary spongiosa (ISP), immobilization-induced bone loss plateaued after day 7 and was prevented by tiludronate. In secondary spongiosa (IISP), bone loss appeared at day 13 with a decrease in trabecular thickness and trabecular number (Tb.N) as assessed by three-dimensional microtomography. Osteoclastic parameters did not differ in tail-suspended rats versus control rats, whereas bone formation showed a biphasic pattern: after a marked decrease at day 7, osteoblastic activity and recruitment normalized at days 13 and 23, respectively. At day 23, the 80% decrease in bone mass was fully prevented by high-dose tiludronate with an increase in Tb.N without preventing trabecular thinning. In summary, at day 7, tiludronate prevented bone loss in ISP. After day 13, tiludronate prevented bone loss in ISP and IISP despite a further decrease in bone formation. Thus, the preventive effects of tiludronate in this model may be related to the alteration in bone modeling with an increase in Tb.N in ISP and subsequently in IISP.

  17. Diffusion model analyses of the experimental data of /sup 12/C+/sup 27/Al, /sup 40/Ca dissipative collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng-qing, SHEN; Wei-men, QIAO; Yong-tai, ZHU; Wen-long, ZHAN

    1984-11-01

    Assuming that the intermediate system decays with a statistical lifetime, the general behavior of the threefold differential cross section d/sup 3/sigma/dZEdtheta in the dissipative collisions of 68 MeV /sup 12/C+/sup 27/Al and 68.6 MeV /sup 12/C+/sup 40/Ca system are analyzed in the diffusion model framework. The lifetime of the intermediate system and the separation distance for the completely damped deep inelastic component are obtained. The calculated results and the experimental data of the angular distributions and Wilczynski plots are compared. The probable reasons of the differences between them are briefly discussed.

  18. Using an operating cost model to analyse the selection of aircraft type on short-haul routes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ssamula, B

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available 1998 (Act No 2 of 1998). http://www. gov.za/gazette/acts/1998/a2-98.pdf (30/4/2004). Pyramid Media Group 2003. Commercial aircraft prices. http://www.pyramid.ch/aircr_prices.htm (4/10/2003). Rolls–Royce 2003. Civil aerospace turbofan range. http...:// www.rolls-royce.com/civil/products/turbofans/Default.htm (4/24/2003). Ssamula, B 2004. Developing a cost model for running an airline service. MEng dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. Stratford, A H1973. Air transport economics...

  19. A model to analyse the flow of an incompressible Newtonian fluid through a rigid, homogeneous, isotropic and infinite porous medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gama, R.M.S. da; Sampaio, R.

    1985-01-01

    The flow of an incompressible Newtonian fluid through a rigid, homogeneous, isotropic and infinite porous medium which has a given inicial distribuition of the mentioned fluid, is analyzed. It is proposed a model that assumes that the motion is caused by concentration gradient, but it does not consider the friction between the porous medium and the fluid. We solve an onedimensional case where the mathematical problem is reduced to the solution of a non-linear hyperbolic system of differential equations, subjected to an inicial condition given by a step function, called 'Riemann Problem'. (Author) [pt

  20. Generelle aspekter ved mediereception? – Et bud på en multidimensional model for analyse af kvalitative receptionsinterviews

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Schrøder

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Findes der generelle aspekter ved receptionen af medieprodukter, som det kan være analytisk frugtbart at orientere sig efter, og som man altid bør belyse, når man analyserer kvalitative receptionsdata – og måske også allerede når man skal planlægge det empiriske feltarbejde i et em- pirisk receptionsprojekt? Denne artikel bygger på, at dette spørgsmål kan besvares bekræftende, og fremlægger et bud på, hvordan en multi- dimensional model for kvalitativ receptionsanalyse kunne se ud.

  1. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

    2015-03-15

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Whole Genome and Global Gene Expression Analyses of the Model Mushroom Flammulina velutipes Reveal a High Capacity for Lignocellulose Degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Jin; Baek, Jeong Hun; Lee, Seonwook; Kim, Changhoon; Rhee, Hwanseok; Kim, Hyungtae; Seo, Jeong-Sun; Park, Hae-Ran; Yoon, Dae-Eun; Nam, Jae-Young; Kim, Hong-Il; Kim, Jong-Guk; Yoon, Hyeokjun; Kang, Hee-Wan; Cho, Jae-Yong; Song, Eun-Sung; Sung, Gi-Ho; Yoo, Young-Bok; Lee, Chang-Soo; Lee, Byoung-Moo; Kong, Won-Sik

    2014-01-01

    Flammulina velutipes is a fungus with health and medicinal benefits that has been used for consumption and cultivation in East Asia. F. velutipes is also known to degrade lignocellulose and produce ethanol. The overlapping interests of mushroom production and wood bioconversion make F. velutipes an attractive new model for fungal wood related studies. Here, we present the complete sequence of the F. velutipes genome. This is the first sequenced genome for a commercially produced edible mushroom that also degrades wood. The 35.6-Mb genome contained 12,218 predicted protein-encoding genes and 287 tRNA genes assembled into 11 scaffolds corresponding with the 11 chromosomes of strain KACC42780. The 88.4-kb mitochondrial genome contained 35 genes. Well-developed wood degrading machinery with strong potential for lignin degradation (69 auxiliary activities, formerly FOLymes) and carbohydrate degradation (392 CAZymes), along with 58 alcohol dehydrogenase genes were highly expressed in the mycelium, demonstrating the potential application of this organism to bioethanol production. Thus, the newly uncovered wood degrading capacity and sequential nature of this process in F. velutipes, offer interesting possibilities for more detailed studies on either lignin or (hemi-) cellulose degradation in complex wood substrates. The mutual interest in wood degradation by the mushroom industry and (ligno-)cellulose biomass related industries further increase the significance of F. velutipes as a new model. PMID:24714189

  3. Using Watershed Models and Human Behavioral Analyses to identify Management Options to Reduce Lake Erie's Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Wilson, R. S.; Aloysius, N.; Kalcic, M. M.; Roe, B.; Howard, G.; Irwin, E.; Zhang, W.; Liu, H.

    2017-12-01

    In early 2016, the United States and Canada formally agreed to reduce phosphorus inputs to Lake Erie by 40% to reduce the severity of annual Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). These blooms have become more severe, with record events occurring in 2011 and 2015, and have compromised public safety, shut down drinking water supplies, and negatively impacted the economy of the western Lake Erie basin. Now, a key question is what management options should be pursued to reach the 40% reduction. This presentation will highlight interdisciplinary research to compare the amount and types of practices needed for this reduction to the current and projected levels of adoption. Multiple models of the Maumee watershed identified management plans and adoption rates needed to reach the reduction targets. For example, one successful scenario estimated necessary adoption rates of 50% for subsurface application of fertilizer on row crops, 58% for cover crops, and 78% for buffer strips. Current adoption is below these levels, but future projections based on farmer surveys shows these levels are possible. This information was then used to guide another round of watershed modeling analysis to evaluate scenarios that represented more realistic scenarios based on potential levels of management adoption. In general, these results show that accelerated adoption of management plans is needed compared to past adoption rates, and that some of these greater adoption levels are possible based on likely adoption rates. Increasing the perceived efficacy of the practices is one method that will support greater voluntary rates of adoption.

  4. 4Cin: A computational pipeline for 3D genome modeling and virtual Hi-C analyses from 4C data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibai Irastorza-Azcarate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of 3C-based methods has revealed the importance of the 3D organization of the chromatin for key aspects of genome biology. However, the different caveats of the variants of 3C techniques have limited their scope and the range of scientific fields that could benefit from these approaches. To address these limitations, we present 4Cin, a method to generate 3D models and derive virtual Hi-C (vHi-C heat maps of genomic loci based on 4C-seq or any kind of 4C-seq-like data, such as those derived from NG Capture-C. 3D genome organization is determined by integrative consideration of the spatial distances derived from as few as four 4C-seq experiments. The 3D models obtained from 4C-seq data, together with their associated vHi-C maps, allow the inference of all chromosomal contacts within a given genomic region, facilitating the identification of Topological Associating Domains (TAD boundaries. Thus, 4Cin offers a much cheaper, accessible and versatile alternative to other available techniques while providing a comprehensive 3D topological profiling. By studying TAD modifications in genomic structural variants associated to disease phenotypes and performing cross-species evolutionary comparisons of 3D chromatin structures in a quantitative manner, we demonstrate the broad potential and novel range of applications of our method.

  5. Two Model-Based Methods for Policy Analyses of Fine Particulate Matter Control in China: Source Apportionment and Source Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zheng, B.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

    2013-12-01

    Anthropogenic emissions have been controlled in recent years in China to mitigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Recent studies show that sulfate dioxide (SO2)-only control cannot reduce total PM2.5 levels efficiently. Other species such as nitrogen oxide, ammonia, black carbon, and organic carbon may be equally important during particular seasons. Furthermore, each species is emitted from several anthropogenic sectors (e.g., industry, power plant, transportation, residential and agriculture). On the other hand, contribution of one emission sector to PM2.5 represents contributions of all species in this sector. In this work, two model-based methods are used to identify the most influential emission sectors and areas to PM2.5. The first method is the source apportionment (SA) based on the Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) available in the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) driven by meteorological predictions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The second method is the source sensitivity (SS) based on an adjoint integration technique (AIT) available in the GEOS-Chem model. The SA method attributes simulated PM2.5 concentrations to each emission group, while the SS method calculates their sensitivity to each emission group, accounting for the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 and its precursors. Despite their differences, the complementary nature of the two methods enables a complete analysis of source-receptor relationships to support emission control policies. Our objectives are to quantify the contributions of each emission group/area to PM2.5 in the receptor areas and to intercompare results from the two methods to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of emission sources in PM2.5 formation. The results will be compared in terms of the magnitudes and rankings of SS or SA of emitted species and emission groups/areas. GEOS-Chem with AIT is applied over East Asia at a horizontal grid

  6. CLASH-VLT: constraints on f (R) gravity models with galaxy clusters using lensing and kinematic analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pizzuti, L.; Sartoris, B.; Borgani, S.; Girardi, M., E-mail: pizzuti@oats.inaf.it, E-mail: sartoris@oats.inaf.it, E-mail: borgani@oats.inaf.it, E-mail: girardi@oats.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sezione di Astronomia, Università di Trieste, Via Tiepolo 11, I-34143 Trieste (Italy); and others

    2017-07-01

    We perform a maximum likelihood kinematic analysis of the two dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters MACS J1206.2-0847 at z =0.44 and RXC J2248.7-4431 at z =0.35 to determine the total mass profile in modified gravity models, using a modified version of the MAMPOSSt code of Mamon, Biviano and Bou and apos;e. Our work is based on the kinematic and lensing mass profiles derived using the data from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (hereafter CLASH) and the spectroscopic follow-up with the Very Large Telescope (hereafter CLASH-VLT). We assume a spherical Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW hereafter) profile in order to obtain a constraint on the fifth force interaction range λ for models in which the dependence of this parameter on the environment is negligible at the scale considered (i.e. λ= const ) and fixing the fifth force strength to the value predicted in f (R) gravity. We then use information from lensing analysis to put a prior on the other NFW free parameters. In the case of MACSJ 1206 the joint kinematic+lensing analysis leads to an upper limit on the effective interaction range λ≤1.61 mpc at Δχ{sup 2}=2.71 on the marginalized distribution. For RXJ 2248 instead a possible tension with the ΛCDM model appears when adding lensing information, with a lower limit λ≥0.14 mpc at Δχ{sup 2}=2.71. This is consequence of the slight difference between the lensing and kinematic data, appearing in GR for this cluster, that could in principle be explained in terms of modifications of gravity. We discuss the impact of systematics and the limits of our analysis as well as future improvements of the results obtained. This work has interesting implications in view of upcoming and future large imaging and spectroscopic surveys, that will deliver lensing and kinematic mass reconstruction for a large number of galaxy clusters.

  7. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  8. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    Full Text Available Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107% of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47% to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61% in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42% in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%; more so in deprived (37% than in affluent (25% areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%, smoking (3%, and physical activity (2%. Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%, particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70% of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%, chronic angina treatment (13%, and secondary prevention (11% made the largest medical contributions.The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However

  9. A model using marginal efficiency of investment to analyse carbon and nitrogen interactions in terrestrial ecosystems (ACONITE Version 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. Q.; Williams, M.

    2014-04-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles are coupled in terrestrial ecosystems through multiple processes including photosynthesis, tissue allocation, respiration, N fixation, N uptake, and decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. Capturing the constraint of N on terrestrial C uptake and storage has been a focus of the Earth System modelling community. However there is little understanding of the trade-offs and sensitivities of allocating C and N to different tissues in order to optimize the productivity of plants. Here we describe a new, simple model of ecosystem C-N cycling and interactions (ACONITE), that builds on theory related to plant economics in order to predict key ecosystem properties (leaf area index, leaf C : N, N fixation, and plant C use efficiency) using emergent constraints provided by marginal returns on investment for C and/or N allocation. We simulated and evaluated steady-state ecosystem stocks and fluxes in three different forest ecosystems types (tropical evergreen, temperate deciduous, and temperate evergreen). Leaf C : N differed among the three ecosystem types (temperate deciduous database describing plant traits. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) estimates compared well to observed fluxes at the simulation sites. Simulated N fixation at steady-state, calculated based on relative demand for N and the marginal return on C investment to acquire N, was an order of magnitude higher in the tropical forest than in the temperate forest, consistent with observations. A sensitivity analysis revealed that parameterization of the relationship between leaf N and leaf respiration had the largest influence on leaf area index and leaf C : N. Also, a widely used linear leaf N-respiration relationship did not yield a realistic leaf C : N, while a more recently reported non-linear relationship performed better. A parameter governing how photosynthesis scales with day length had the largest influence on total vegetation C

  10. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  11. Systematic review of model-based analyses reporting the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiovascular disease management programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maru, Shoko; Byrnes, Joshua; Whitty, Jennifer A; Carrington, Melinda J; Stewart, Simon; Scuffham, Paul A

    2015-02-01

    The reported cost effectiveness of cardiovascular disease management programs (CVD-MPs) is highly variable, potentially leading to different funding decisions. This systematic review evaluates published modeled analyses to compare study methods and quality. Articles were included if an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) or cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was reported, it is a multi-component intervention designed to manage or prevent a cardiovascular disease condition, and it addressed all domains specified in the American Heart Association Taxonomy for Disease Management. Nine articles (reporting 10 clinical outcomes) were included. Eight cost-utility and two cost-effectiveness analyses targeted hypertension (n=4), coronary heart disease (n=2), coronary heart disease plus stoke (n=1), heart failure (n=2) and hyperlipidemia (n=1). Study perspectives included the healthcare system (n=5), societal and fund holders (n=1), a third party payer (n=3), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). All analyses were modeled based on interventions of one to two years' duration. Time horizon ranged from two years (n=1), 10 years (n=1) and lifetime (n=8). Model structures included Markov model (n=8), 'decision analytic models' (n=1), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). Considerable variation was observed in clinical and economic assumptions and reporting practices. Of all ICERs/ICURs reported, including those of subgroups (n=16), four were above a US$50,000 acceptability threshold, six were below and six were dominant. The majority of CVD-MPs was reported to have favorable economic outcomes, but 25% were at unacceptably high cost for the outcomes. Use of standardized reporting tools should increase transparency and inform what drives the cost-effectiveness of CVD-MPs. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  12. The mental health care model in Brazil: analyses of the funding, governance processes, and mechanisms of assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapé, Thiago Lavras; Campos, Rosana Onocko

    2017-03-23

    This study aims to analyze the current status of the mental health care model of the Brazilian Unified Health System, according to its funding, governance processes, and mechanisms of assessment. We have carried out a documentary analysis of the ordinances, technical reports, conference reports, normative resolutions, and decrees from 2009 to 2014. This is a time of consolidation of the psychosocial model, with expansion of the health care network and inversion of the funding for community services with a strong emphasis on the area of crack cocaine and other drugs. Mental health is an underfunded area within the chronically underfunded Brazilian Unified Health System. The governance model constrains the progress of essential services, which creates the need for the incorporation of a process of regionalization of the management. The mechanisms of assessment are not incorporated into the health policy in the bureaucratic field. There is a need to expand the global funding of the area of health, specifically mental health, which has been shown to be a successful policy. The current focus of the policy seems to be archaic in relation to the precepts of the psychosocial model. Mechanisms of assessment need to be expanded. Analisar o estágio atual do modelo de atenção à saúde mental do Sistema Único de Saúde, segundo seu financiamento, processos de governança e mecanismos de avaliação. Foi realizada uma análise documental de portarias, informes técnicos, relatórios de conferência, resoluções e decretos de 2009 a 2014. Trata-se de um momento de consolidação do modelo psicossocial, com ampliação da rede assistencial, inversão de financiamento para serviços comunitários com forte ênfase na área de crack e outras drogas. A saúde mental é uma área subfinanciada dentro do subfinanciamento crônico do Sistema Único de Saúde. O modelo de governança constrange o avanço de serviços essenciais, havendo a necessidade da incorporação de um

  13. The energy logistic model for analyses of transportation- and energy systems; Energilogistikmodell foer systemberaekningar av transport- och energifoersoerjningssystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blinge, M

    1995-05-01

    The Energy Logistic Model has been improved to become a tool for analysis of all production processes, transportation systems and systems including several energy users and several fuels. Two cases were studied. The first case deals with terminal equipment for inter modal transport systems and the second case deals with diesel fuelled trucks, cranes and machines in the Goeteborg area. In both cases, the environmental improvements of the city air quality are analyzed when natural gas is substituted for diesel oil. The comparison between inter modal transport and road haulage shows that the environmental impacts from the operations at the terminal are limited, and that the potential for environmental benefits when using inter modal transport is improving with the transportation distance. The choice of electricity production system is of great importance when calculating the environmental impact from railway traffic in the total analysis of the transportation system. 13 refs, 27 tabs

  14. Theoretical study of inertial confinement: model development and analyses of laser induced fusion by implosion of D--T pellets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, E.C.

    1977-01-01

    An accurate account of the spherical effects was included in all calculations; as two distinct plasma plume shells were included to obtain improved accuracy in the analysis; as an exact solution to the spherically symmetric laser intensity equation was derived; and as a more realistic physical model was employed for the absorption of the laser beam as it traverses the plasma plume region. Moreover, the complete space--time history of the pulsed laser-driven thermonuclear reaction wave and fusion energy yields was explicitly calculated. This is in direct contrast to the average or total values reported in earlier work. The space--time histories provide a valuable insight into the reaction wave's progression through the pellet

  15. Studies and analyses of the space shuttle main engine. Failure information propagation model data base and software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tischer, A. E.

    1987-01-01

    The failure information propagation model (FIPM) data base was developed to store and manipulate the large amount of information anticipated for the various Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) FIPMs. The organization and structure of the FIPM data base is described, including a summary of the data fields and key attributes associated with each FIPM data file. The menu-driven software developed to facilitate and control the entry, modification, and listing of data base records is also discussed. The transfer of the FIPM data base and software to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is described. Complete listings of all of the data base definition commands and software procedures are included in the appendixes.

  16. On the Structure of Personality Disorder Traits: Conjoint Analyses of the CAT-PD, PID-5, and NEO-PI-3 Trait Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G.C.; Simms, Leonard J.

    2014-01-01

    The current study examines the relations among contemporary models of pathological and normal range personality traits. Specifically, we report on (a) conjoint exploratory factor analyses of the Computerized Adaptive Test of Personality Disorder static form (CAT-PD-SF) with the Personality Inventory for the DSM-5 (PID-5; Krueger et al., 2012) and NEO Personality Inventory-3 First Half (NEI-PI-3FH; McCrae & Costa, 2007), and (b) unfolding hierarchical analyses of the three measures in a large general psychiatric outpatient sample (N = 628; 64% Female). A five-factor solution provided conceptually coherent alignment among the CAT-PD-SF, PID-5, and NEO-PI-3FH scales. Hierarchical solutions suggested that higher-order factors bear strong resemblance to dimensions that emerge from structural models of psychopathology (e.g., Internalizing and Externalizing spectra). These results demonstrate that the CAT-PD-SF adheres to the consensual structure of broad trait domains at the five-factor level. Additionally, patterns of scale loadings further inform questions of structure and bipolarity of facet and domain level constructs. Finally, hierarchical analyses strengthen the argument for using broad dimensions that span normative and pathological functioning to scaffold a quantitatively derived phenotypic structure of psychopathology to orient future research on explanatory, etiological, and maintenance mechanisms. PMID:24588061

  17. EXPERIMENTAL DATA, THERMODYNAMIC MODELING AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR THE PURIFICATION STEPS OF ETHYL BIODIESEL FROM FODDER RADISH OIL PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Basso

    Full Text Available Abstract The goals of this work were to present original liquid-liquid equilibrium data of the system containing glycerol + ethanol + ethyl biodiesel from fodder radish oil, including the individual distribution of each ethyl ester; to adjust binary parameters of the NRTL; to compare NRTL and UNIFAC-Dortmund in the LLE representation of the system containing glycerol; to simulate different mixer/settler flowsheets for biodiesel purification, evaluating the ratio water/biodiesel used. In thermodynamic modeling, the deviations between experimental data and calculated values were 0.97% and 3.6%, respectively, using NRTL and UNIFAC-Dortmund. After transesterification, with 3 moles of excess ethanol, removal of this component until a content equal to 0.08 before an ideal settling step allows a glycerol content lower than 0.02% in the ester-rich phase. Removal of ethanol, glycerol and water from biodiesel can be performed with countercurrent mixer/settler, using 0.27% of water in relation to the ester amount in the feed stream.

  18. Modeling analyses of two-phase flow instabilities for straight and helical tubes in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Ruiting; Niu, Fenglei; Zhou, Yuan; Yu, Yu; Guo, Zhangpeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Two-phase flow instabilities in straight and helical tubes were studied. • The effects of system pressure, mass flux, inlet subcooling on DWO were studied. • The simulation results are consistent with the experimental results. • The RELAP5 results are consistent with frequency domain method results. - Abstract: The effects of system pressure, mass flux and inlet subcooling on two-phase flow instability for the test section consisted of two heated straight channels or two helical channels are studied by means of RELAP5/MOD3.3 and multi-variable frequency domain control theory. The experimental data in two straight channels are used to verify the RELAP5 and multi-variable frequency domain control theory results. The thermal hydraulic behaviors and parametric effects are simulated and compared with the experimental data. The RELAP5 results show that the flow stability increases with the system pressure, mass velocity, and inlet subcooling at high subcoolings. The frequency domain theory presents the same results as those given by the time domain theory (RELAP5). The effects of system pressure, mass velocity and inlet subcooling are simulated to find the difference between the straight and the helical tube flows. The RELAP5 and the multi-variable frequency domain control theory are used in modeling and simulating density wave oscillation to study their advantages and disadvantages in straight and helical tubes.

  19. Modeling analyses of two-phase flow instabilities for straight and helical tubes in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Ruiting [Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Nuclear Power Safety and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Niu, Fenglei, E-mail: niufenglei@ncepu.edu.cn [Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Nuclear Power Safety and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Zhou, Yuan [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Yu, Yu; Guo, Zhangpeng [Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Nuclear Power Safety and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China)

    2016-10-15

    Highlights: • Two-phase flow instabilities in straight and helical tubes were studied. • The effects of system pressure, mass flux, inlet subcooling on DWO were studied. • The simulation results are consistent with the experimental results. • The RELAP5 results are consistent with frequency domain method results. - Abstract: The effects of system pressure, mass flux and inlet subcooling on two-phase flow instability for the test section consisted of two heated straight channels or two helical channels are studied by means of RELAP5/MOD3.3 and multi-variable frequency domain control theory. The experimental data in two straight channels are used to verify the RELAP5 and multi-variable frequency domain control theory results. The thermal hydraulic behaviors and parametric effects are simulated and compared with the experimental data. The RELAP5 results show that the flow stability increases with the system pressure, mass velocity, and inlet subcooling at high subcoolings. The frequency domain theory presents the same results as those given by the time domain theory (RELAP5). The effects of system pressure, mass velocity and inlet subcooling are simulated to find the difference between the straight and the helical tube flows. The RELAP5 and the multi-variable frequency domain control theory are used in modeling and simulating density wave oscillation to study their advantages and disadvantages in straight and helical tubes.

  20. Transcriptome analyses and differential gene expression in a non-model fish species with alternative mating tactics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schunter, Celia; Vollmer, Steven V; Macpherson, Enrique; Pascual, Marta

    2014-02-28

    Social dominance is important for the reproductive success of males in many species. In the black-faced blenny (Tripterygion delaisi) during the reproductive season, some males change color and invest in nest making and defending a territory, whereas others do not change color and 'sneak' reproductions when females lay their eggs. Using RNAseq, we profiled differential gene expression between the brains of territorial males, sneaker males, and females to study the molecular signatures of male dimorphism. We found that more genes were differentially expressed between the two male phenotypes than between males and females, suggesting that during the reproductive period phenotypic plasticity is a more important factor in differential gene expression than sexual dimorphism. The territorial male overexpresses genes related to synaptic plasticity and the sneaker male overexpresses genes involved in differentiation and development. Previously suggested candidate genes for social dominance in the context of alternative mating strategies seem to be predominantly species-specific. We present a list of novel genes which are differentially expressed in Tripterygion delaisi. This is the first genome-wide study for a molecular non-model species in the context of alternative mating strategies and provides essential information for further studies investigating the molecular basis of social dominance.

  1. Analysing the relationship between family planning workers' contact and contraceptive switching in rural Bangladesh using multilevel modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mian B

    2005-09-01

    With a population of over 131 million and a fertility rate of 29.9 per 1000, population growth constitutes a primary threat to continued economic growth and development in Bangladesh. One strategy that has been used to cease further increases in fertility in Bangladesh involves using family planning outreach workers who travel throughout rural and urban areas educating women regarding contraceptive alternatives. This study uses a longitudinal database to assess the impact of family planning outreach workers' contact upon contraceptive switching and upon the risk of an unintended pregnancy. Using longitudinal data on contraceptive use from the Operations Research Project (ORP) of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (ICDDR,B) in Bangladesh, multiple decrement life table analysis and multilevel, discrete-time competing risk hazards models were used to estimate the cumulative probabilities of switching to an alternative form of contraceptive use after a woman engaged in a discussion with an outreach worker. After controlling for the effects of socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the analysis revealed that family planning outreach workers' contact with women significantly decreases the risk of transitioning to the non-use of contraceptives. This contact also reduces the risk of an unintended pregnancy. Family planning workers' contact with women is associated with the increased risk of a woman switching from one modern method to another modern method. The study results indicate that side-effects and other method-related reasons are the two primary reasons for contraceptive discontinuation in rural Bangladesh.

  2. Analysing the economy-wide effects of the energy tax: results for Australia from the ORANI-E model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDougall, R.A.; Dixon, P.B. [Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC (Australia); Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Since the mid 1980s, economists have devoted considerable effort to greenhouse issues. Among the questions to which they have sought answers were what would be the effects on economic growth and employment of adopting different approaches to restricting greenhouse gas emissions, and what are the distributional effects of restricting greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. how would income and economic activity be re-allocated between countries, between industries, and between income classes. One approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to impose taxes on the use of fossil fuels. Such a policy might, however, cause short-run economic disruption. This issues is investigated for Australia using a general equilibrium model, ORANI-E. The short-run effects of an energy tax are shown to depend on what is done with the tax revenue, how the labour market reacts, and on substitution possibilities between energy, capital and labour. Overall, the results indicate that energy taxes need not be damaging to the macro-economy. (author). 5 tabs., 2 figs., refs.

  3. mRNA and microRNA transcriptomics analyses in a murine model of dystrophin loss and therapeutic restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Roberts

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD is a pediatric, X-linked, progressive muscle-wasting disorder caused by loss of function mutations affecting the gene encoding the dystrophin protein. While the primary genetic insult in DMD is well described, many details of the molecular and cellular pathologies that follow dystrophin loss are incompletely understood. To investigate gene expression in dystrophic muscle we have applied mRNA and microRNA (miRNA microarray technology to the mdx mouse model of DMD. This study was designed to generate a complete description of gene expression changes associated with dystrophic pathology and the response to an experimental therapy which restores dystrophin protein function. These datasets have enabled (1 the determination of gene expression changes associated with dystrophic pathology, (2 identification of differentially expressed genes that are restored towards wild-type levels after therapeutic dystrophin rescue, (3 investigation of the correlation between mRNA and protein expression (determined by parallel mass spectrometry proteomics analysis, and (4 prediction of pathology associated miRNA-target interactions. Here we describe in detail how the data were generated including the basic analysis as contained in the manuscript published in Human Molecular Genetics with PMID 26385637. The data have been deposited in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO with the accession number GSE64420.

  4. Genetic and functional analyses of SHANK2 mutations suggest a multiple hit model of autism spectrum disorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire S Leblond

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Autism spectrum disorders (ASD are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders with a complex inheritance pattern. While many rare variants in synaptic proteins have been identified in patients with ASD, little is known about their effects at the synapse and their interactions with other genetic variations. Here, following the discovery of two de novo SHANK2 deletions by the Autism Genome Project, we identified a novel 421 kb de novo SHANK2 deletion in a patient with autism. We then sequenced SHANK2 in 455 patients with ASD and 431 controls and integrated these results with those reported by Berkel et al. 2010 (n = 396 patients and n = 659 controls. We observed a significant enrichment of variants affecting conserved amino acids in 29 of 851 (3.4% patients and in 16 of 1,090 (1.5% controls (P = 0.004, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.23-4.70. In neuronal cell cultures, the variants identified in patients were associated with a reduced synaptic density at dendrites compared to the variants only detected in controls (P = 0.0013. Interestingly, the three patients with de novo SHANK2 deletions also carried inherited CNVs at 15q11-q13 previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. In two cases, the nicotinic receptor CHRNA7 was duplicated and in one case the synaptic translation repressor CYFIP1 was deleted. These results strengthen the role of synaptic gene dysfunction in ASD but also highlight the presence of putative modifier genes, which is in keeping with the "multiple hit model" for ASD. A better knowledge of these genetic interactions will be necessary to understand the complex inheritance pattern of ASD.

  5. Childhood Leukaemia Incidence in Hungary, 1973-2002. Interpolation Model for Analysing the Possible Effects of the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toeroek, Szabolcs; Borgulya, Gabor; Lobmayer, Peter; Jakab, Zsuzsanna; Schuler, Dezsoe; Fekete, Gyoergy

    2005-01-01

    The incidence of childhood leukaemia in Hungary has yet to be reported, although data are available since the early 70s. The Hungarian data therefore cover the time before and after the Chernobyl nuclear accident (1986). The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the Chernobyl accident on childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary. A population-based study was carried out using data of the National Paediatric Cancer Registry of Hungary from 1973 to 2002. The total number of cases was 2204. To test the effect of the Chernobyl accident the authors applied a new approach called 'Hypothesized Impact Period Interpolation'-model, which takes into account the increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence and the hypothesized exposure and latency times. The incidence of leukaemia in the age group 0-14 varied between 33.2 and 39.4 per million person-years along the observed 30 year period, and the incidence of childhood leukaemia showed a moderate increase of 0.71% annually (p=0.0105). In the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident the incidence rate was elevated by 2.5% (95% CI: -8.1%; +14.3%), but this change was not statistically significant (p=0.663). The age standardised incidence, the age distribution, the gender ratio, and the magnitude of increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary were similar to other European countries. Applying the presented interpolation method the authors did not find a statistically significant increase in the leukaemia incidence in the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident

  6. Phase-Space Density Analyses of the AE-8 Trapped Electron and the AP-8 Trapped Proton Model Environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cayton, Thomas E.

    2005-01-01

    The AE-8 trapped electron and the AP-8 trapped proton models are used to examine the L-shell variation of phase-space densities for sets of transverse (or 1st) invariants, μ, and geometrical invariants, K (related to the first two adiabatic invariants). The motivation for this study is twofold: first, to discover the functional dependence of the phase-space density upon the invariants; and, second, to explore the global structure of the radiation belts within this context. Variation due to particle rest mass is considered as well. The overall goal of this work is to provide a framework for analyzing energetic particle data collected by instruments on Global Positioning System (GPS) spacecraft that fly through the most intense region of the radiation belt. For all considered values of μ and K, and for 3.5 R E E , the AE-8 electron phase-space density increases with increasing L; this trend--the expected one for a population diffusing inward from an external source--continues to L = 7.5 R E for both small and large values of K but reverses slightly for intermediate values of K. The AP-8 proton phase-space density exhibits μ-dependent local minima around L = 5 R E . Both AE-8 and AP-8 exhibit critical or cutoff values for the invariants beyond which the flux and therefore the phase-space density vanish. For both electrons and protons, these cutoff values vary systematically with magnetic moment and L-shell and are smaller than those estimated for the atmospheric loss cone. For large magnetic moments, for both electrons and protons, the K-dependence of the phase-space density is exponential, with maxima at the magnetic equator (K = 0) and vanishing beyond a cutoff value, K c . Such features suggest that momentum-dependent trapping boundaries, perhaps drift-type loss cones, serve as boundary conditions for trapped electrons as well as trapped protons

  7. Group-Level EEG-Processing Pipeline for Flexible Single Trial-Based Analyses Including Linear Mixed Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frömer, Romy; Maier, Martin; Abdel Rahman, Rasha

    2018-01-01

    Here we present an application of an EEG processing pipeline customizing EEGLAB and FieldTrip functions, specifically optimized to flexibly analyze EEG data based on single trial information. The key component of our approach is to create a comprehensive 3-D EEG data structure including all trials and all participants maintaining the original order of recording. This allows straightforward access to subsets of the data based on any information available in a behavioral data structure matched with the EEG data (experimental conditions, but also performance indicators, such accuracy or RTs of single trials). In the present study we exploit this structure to compute linear mixed models (LMMs, using lmer in R) including random intercepts and slopes for items. This information can easily be read out from the matched behavioral data, whereas it might not be accessible in traditional ERP approaches without substantial effort. We further provide easily adaptable scripts for performing cluster-based permutation tests (as implemented in FieldTrip), as a more robust alternative to traditional omnibus ANOVAs. Our approach is particularly advantageous for data with parametric within-subject covariates (e.g., performance) and/or multiple complex stimuli (such as words, faces or objects) that vary in features affecting cognitive processes and ERPs (such as word frequency, salience or familiarity), which are sometimes hard to control experimentally or might themselves constitute variables of interest. The present dataset was recorded from 40 participants who performed a visual search task on previously unfamiliar objects, presented either visually intact or blurred. MATLAB as well as R scripts are provided that can be adapted to different datasets.

  8. Phase-Space Density Analyses of the AE-8 Trapped Electron and the AP-8 Trapped Proton Model Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T.E. Cayton

    2005-08-12

    The AE-8 trapped electron and the AP-8 trapped proton models are used to examine the L-shell variation of phase-space densities for sets of transverse (or 1st) invariants, {mu}, and geometrical invariants, K (related to the first two adiabatic invariants). The motivation for this study is twofold: first, to discover the functional dependence of the phase-space density upon the invariants; and, second, to explore the global structure of the radiation belts within this context. Variation due to particle rest mass is considered as well. The overall goal of this work is to provide a framework for analyzing energetic particle data collected by instruments on Global Positioning System (GPS) spacecraft that fly through the most intense region of the radiation belt. For all considered values of {mu} and K, and for 3.5 R{sub E} < L < 6.5 R{sub E}, the AE-8 electron phase-space density increases with increasing L; this trend--the expected one for a population diffusing inward from an external source--continues to L = 7.5 R{sub E} for both small and large values of K but reverses slightly for intermediate values of K. The AP-8 proton phase-space density exhibits {mu}-dependent local minima around L = 5 R{sub E}. Both AE-8 and AP-8 exhibit critical or cutoff values for the invariants beyond which the flux and therefore the phase-space density vanish. For both electrons and protons, these cutoff values vary systematically with magnetic moment and L-shell and are smaller than those estimated for the atmospheric loss cone. For large magnetic moments, for both electrons and protons, the K-dependence of the phase-space density is exponential, with maxima at the magnetic equator (K = 0) and vanishing beyond a cutoff value, K{sub c}. Such features suggest that momentum-dependent trapping boundaries, perhaps drift-type loss cones, serve as boundary conditions for trapped electrons as well as trapped protons.

  9. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years' project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and (ii) to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species ( e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on: (i) comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; (ii) considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes. Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research — including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); open-source software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection of ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB

  10. Development of model for analysing respective collections of intended hematopoietic stem cells and harvests of unintended mature cells in apheresis for autologous hematopoietic stem cell collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hequet, O; Le, Q H; Rodriguez, J; Dubost, P; Revesz, D; Clerc, A; Rigal, D; Salles, G; Coiffier, B

    2014-04-01

    Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) required to perform peripheral hematopoietic autologous stem cell transplantation (APBSCT) can be collected by processing several blood volumes (BVs) in leukapheresis sessions. However, this may cause granulocyte harvest in graft and decrease in patient's platelet blood level. Both consequences may induce disturbances in patient. One apheresis team's current purpose is to improve HSC collection by increasing HSC collection and prevent increase in granulocyte and platelet harvests. Before improving HSC collection it seemed important to know more about the way to harvest these types of cells. The purpose of our study was to develop a simple model for analysing respective collections of intended CD34+ cells among HSC (designated here as HSC) and harvests of unintended platelets or granulocytes among mature cells (designated here as mature cells) considering the number of BVs processed and factors likely to influence cell collection or harvest. For this, we processed 1, 2 and 3 BVs in 59 leukapheresis sessions and analysed corresponding collections and harvests with a referent device (COBE Spectra). First we analysed the amounts of HSC collected and mature cells harvested and second the evolution of the respective shares of HSC and mature cells collected or harvested throughout the BV processes. HSC collections and mature cell harvests increased globally (pcollections and harvests, which showed that only pre-leukapheresis blood levels (CD34+cells and platelets) influenced both cell collections and harvests (CD34+cells and platelets) (pcollections and mature unintended cells harvests (pcollections or unintended mature cell harvests were pre-leukapheresis blood cell levels. Our model was meant to assist apheresis teams in analysing shares of HSC collected and mature cells harvested with new devices or with new types of HSC mobilization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. How can results from macro economic analyses of the energy consumption of households be used in macro models? A discussion of theoretical and empirical literature about aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halvorsen, Bente; Larsen, Bodil M.; Nesbakken, Runa

    2001-01-01

    The literature on energy demand shows that there are systematic differences in income- and price elasticity from analyses based on macro data and micro data. Even if one estimates models with the same explanatory variables, the results may differ with respect to estimated price- and income sensitivity. These differences may be caused by problems involved in transferring micro properties to macro properties, or the estimated macro relationships have failed to adequately consideration the fact that households behave differently in their energy demand. Political goals are often directed towards the entire household sector. Partial equilibrium models do not capture important equilibrium effects and feedback through the energy markets and the economy in general. Thus, it is very interesting, politically and scientifically, to do macro economic model analyses of different political measures that affect the energy consumption. The results of behavioural analyses, in which one investigates the heterogeneity of the energy demand, must be based on information about individual households. When the demand is studied based on micro data, it is difficult to aggregate its properties to a total demand function for the entire household sector if different household sectors have different behaviour. Such heterogeneity of behaviour may for instance arise when households in different regions have different heating equipment because of regional differences in the price of electricity. The subject of aggregation arises immediately when one wants to draw conclusions about the household sector based on information about individual households, whether the discussion is about the whole population or a selection of households. Thus, aggregation is a topic of interest in a wide range of problems

  12. Do phase-shift analyses and nucleon-nucleon potential models yield the wrong 3Pj phase shifts at low energies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tornow, W.; Witala, H.; Kievsky, A.

    1998-01-01

    The 4 P J waves in nucleon-deuteron scattering were analyzed using proton-deuteron and neutron-deuteron data at E N =3 MeV. New sets of nucleon-nucleon 3 P j phase shifts were obtained that may lead to a better understanding of the long-standing A y (θ) puzzle in nucleon-deuteron elastic scattering. However, these sets of 3 P j phase shifts are quite different from the ones determined from both global phase-shift analyses of nucleon-nucleon data and nucleon-nucleon potential models. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  13. FEM modeling and histological analyses on thermal damage induced in facial skin resurfacing procedure with different CO2 laser pulse duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Francesca; Zingoni, Tiziano; Di Cicco, Emiliano; Manetti, Leonardo; Pini, Roberto; Fortuna, Damiano

    2011-07-01

    Laser light is nowadays routinely used in the aesthetic treatments of facial skin, such as in laser rejuvenation, scar removal etc. The induced thermal damage may be varied by setting different laser parameters, in order to obtain a particular aesthetic result. In this work, it is proposed a theoretical study on the induced thermal damage in the deep tissue, by considering different laser pulse duration. The study is based on the Finite Element Method (FEM): a bidimensional model of the facial skin is depicted in axial symmetry, considering the different skin structures and their different optical and thermal parameters; the conversion of laser light into thermal energy is modeled by the bio-heat equation. The light source is a CO2 laser, with different pulse durations. The model enabled to study the thermal damage induced into the skin, by calculating the Arrhenius integral. The post-processing results enabled to study in space and time the temperature dynamics induced in the facial skin, to study the eventual cumulative effects of subsequent laser pulses and to optimize the procedure for applications in dermatological surgery. The calculated data where then validated in an experimental measurement session, performed in a sheep animal model. Histological analyses were performed on the treated tissues, evidencing the spatial distribution and the entity of the thermal damage in the collageneous tissue. Modeling and experimental results were in good agreement, and they were used to design a new optimized laser based skin resurfacing procedure.

  14. Mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and apoptosis revealed by proteomic and transcriptomic analyses of the striata in two mouse models of Parkinson’s disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, Mark H.; Qian, Weijun; Wang, Haixing; Petyuk, Vladislav A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Sforza, Daniel M.; Lacan, Goran; Liu, Dahai; Khan, Arshad H.; Cantor, Rita M.; Bigelow, Diana J.; Melega, William P.; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Smith, Desmond J.

    2008-02-10

    The molecular mechanisms underlying the changes in the nigrostriatal pathway in Parkinson disease (PD) are not completely understood. Here we use mass spectrometry and microarrays to study the proteomic and transcriptomic changes in the striatum of two mouse models of PD, induced by the distinct neurotoxins 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) and methamphetamine (METH). Proteomic analyses resulted in the identification and relative quantification of 912 proteins with two or more unique peptides and 85 proteins with significant abundance changes following neurotoxin treatment. Similarly, microarray analyses revealed 181 genes with significant changes in mRNA following neurotoxin treatment. The combined protein and gene list provides a clearer picture of the potential mechanisms underlying neurodegeneration observed in PD. Functional analysis of this combined list revealed a number of significant categories, including mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress response and apoptosis. Additionally, codon usage and miRNAs may play an important role in translational control in the striatum. These results constitute one of the largest datasets integrating protein and transcript changes for these neurotoxin models with many similar endpoint phenotypes but distinct mechanisms.

  15. SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Bennett, Joseph R; French, Connor M

    2017-01-01

    SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model's discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have 'universal' analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates-to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

  16. Results of photochemical modeling sensitivity analyses in the Lake Michigan region: Current status of Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolwick, P.D. [Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL (United States); Kaleel, R.J. [Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfield, IL (United States); Majewski, M.A. [Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The four states that border Lake Michigan are cooperatively applying a state-of-the-art nested photochemical grid model to assess the effects of potential emission control strategies on reducing elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations in the region to levels below the national ambient air quality standard. In order to provide an extensive database to support the application of the photochemical model, a substantial data collection effort known as the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS) was completed during the summer of 1991. The Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) was established by the States of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana to carry out the application of the modeling system developed from the LMOS, in terms of developing the attainment demonstrations required from this area by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.

  17. Mechanical analyses on the digital behaviour of the Tokay gecko (Gekko gecko) based on a multi-level directional adhesion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xuan; Wang, Xiaojie; Mei, Tao; Sun, Shaoming

    2015-07-08

    This paper proposes a multi-level hierarchical model for the Tokay gecko ( Gekko gecko ) adhesive system and analyses the digital behaviour of the G. gecko under macro/meso-level scale. The model describes the structures of G. gecko 's adhesive system from the nano-level spatulae to the sub-millimetre-level lamella. The G. gecko 's seta is modelled using inextensible fibril based on Euler's elastica theorem. Considering the side contact of the spatular pads of the seta on the flat and rigid substrate, the directional adhesion behaviour of the seta has been investigated. The lamella-induced attachment and detachment have been modelled to simulate the active digital hyperextension (DH) and the digital gripping (DG) phenomena. The results suggest that a tiny angular displacement within 0.25° of the lamellar proximal end is necessary in which a fast transition from attachment to detachment or vice versa is induced. The active DH helps release the torque to induce setal non-sliding detachment, while the DG helps apply torque to make the setal adhesion stable. The lamella plays a key role in saving energy during detachment to adapt to its habitat and provides another adhesive function which differs from the friction-dependent setal adhesion system controlled by the dynamic of G. gecko 's body.

  18. Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Michael

    2015-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation modeling relies on knowledge of vegetation composition and structure (states) that describe community conditions, mechanistic feedbacks such as fire that can affect vegetation establishment, and ecological processes that drive community conditions as well as the transitions between these states. However, as the need for modeling larger and more complex landscapes increase, a more advanced awareness of computing resources becomes essential. The objectives of this study include identifying challenges of executing state-and-transition simulation models, identifying common bottlenecks of computing resources, developing a workflow and software that enable parallel processing of Monte Carlo simulations, and identifying the advantages and disadvantages of different computing resources. To address these objectives, this study used the ApexRMS® SyncroSim software and embarrassingly parallel tasks of Monte Carlo simulations on a single multicore computer and on distributed computing systems. The results demonstrated that state-and-transition simulation models scale best in distributed computing environments, such as high-throughput and high-performance computing, because these environments disseminate the workloads across many compute nodes, thereby supporting analysis of larger landscapes, higher spatial resolution vegetation products, and more complex models. Using a case study and five different computing environments, the top result (high-throughput computing versus serial computations) indicated an approximate 96.6% decrease of computing time. With a single, multicore compute node (bottom result), the computing time indicated an 81.8% decrease relative to using serial computations. These results provide insight into the tradeoffs of using different computing resources when research necessitates advanced integration of ecoinformatics incorporating large and complicated data inputs and models. - See more at: http://aimspress.com

  19. The Influence of Study-Level Inference Models and Study Set Size on Coordinate-Based fMRI Meta-Analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Bossier

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the increasing amount of neuroimaging studies, there is a growing need to summarize published results. Coordinate-based meta-analyses use the locations of statistically significant local maxima with possibly the associated effect sizes to aggregate studies. In this paper, we investigate the influence of key characteristics of a coordinate-based meta-analysis on (1 the balance between false and true positives and (2 the activation reliability of the outcome from a coordinate-based meta-analysis. More particularly, we consider the influence of the chosen group level model at the study level [fixed effects, ordinary least squares (OLS, or mixed effects models], the type of coordinate-based meta-analysis [Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE that only uses peak locations, fixed effects, and random effects meta-analysis that take into account both peak location and height] and the amount of studies included in the analysis (from 10 to 35. To do this, we apply a resampling scheme on a large dataset (N = 1,400 to create a test condition and compare this with an independent evaluation condition. The test condition corresponds to subsampling participants into studies and combine these using meta-analyses. The evaluation condition corresponds to a high-powered group analysis. We observe the best performance when using mixed effects models in individual studies combined with a random effects meta-analysis. Moreover the performance increases with the number of studies included in the meta-analysis. When peak height is not taken into consideration, we show that the popular ALE procedure is a good alternative in terms of the balance between type I and II errors. However, it requires more studies compared to other procedures in terms of activation reliability. Finally, we discuss the differences, interpretations, and limitations of our results.

  20. Monte Carlo modeling of Standard Model multi-boson production processes for √s = 13 TeV ATLAS analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Shu; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    We present the Monte Carlo(MC) setup used by ATLAS to model multi-boson processes in √s = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions. The baseline Monte Carlo generators are compared with each other in key kinematic distributions of the processes under study. Sample normalization and systematic uncertainties are discussed.

  1. SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason L. Brown

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs to maximize each model’s discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have ‘universal’ analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism, generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates—to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

  2. Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi

    2014-01-01

    Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)

  3. How Genes Modulate Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100: Biodemographic Models and Methods in Genetic Analyses of Longitudinal Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Wu, Deqing; Arbeeva, Liubov; Kulminski, Alexander; Kulminskaya, Irina; Akushevich, Igor; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objective To clarify mechanisms of genetic regulation of human aging and longevity traits, a number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of these traits have been performed. However, the results of these analyses did not meet expectations of the researchers. Most detected genetic associations have not reached a genome-wide level of statistical significance, and suffered from the lack of replication in the studies of independent populations. The reasons for slow progress in this research area include low efficiency of statistical methods used in data analyses, genetic heterogeneity of aging and longevity related traits, possibility of pleiotropic (e.g., age dependent) effects of genetic variants on such traits, underestimation of the effects of (i) mortality selection in genetically heterogeneous cohorts, (ii) external factors and differences in genetic backgrounds of individuals in the populations under study, the weakness of conceptual biological framework that does not fully account for above mentioned factors. One more limitation of conducted studies is that they did not fully realize the potential of longitudinal data that allow for evaluating how genetic influences on life span are mediated by physiological variables and other biomarkers during the life course. The objective of this paper is to address these issues. Data and Methods We performed GWAS of human life span using different subsets of data from the original Framingham Heart Study cohort corresponding to different quality control (QC) procedures and used one subset of selected genetic variants for further analyses. We used simulation study to show that approach to combining data improves the quality of GWAS. We used FHS longitudinal data to compare average age trajectories of physiological variables in carriers and non-carriers of selected genetic variants. We used stochastic process model of human mortality and aging to investigate genetic influence on hidden biomarkers of aging

  4. Integrative analyses of miRNA and proteomics identify potential biological pathways associated with onset of pulmonary fibrosis in the bleomycin rat model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukunaga, Satoki; Kakehashi, Anna; Sumida, Kayo; Kushida, Masahiko; Asano, Hiroyuki; Gi, Min; Wanibuchi, Hideki

    2015-01-01

    To determine miRNAs and their predicted target proteins regulatory networks which are potentially involved in onset of pulmonary fibrosis in the bleomycin rat model, we conducted integrative miRNA microarray and iTRAQ-coupled LC-MS/MS proteomic analyses, and evaluated the significance of altered biological functions and pathways. We observed that alterations of miRNAs and proteins are associated with the early phase of bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis, and identified potential target pairs by using ingenuity pathway analysis. Using the data set of these alterations, it was demonstrated that those miRNAs, in association with their predicted target proteins, are potentially involved in canonical pathways reflective of initial epithelial injury and fibrogenic processes, and biofunctions related to induction of cellular development, movement, growth, and proliferation. Prediction of activated functions suggested that lung cells acquire proliferative, migratory, and invasive capabilities, and resistance to cell death especially in the very early phase of bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis. The present study will provide new insights for understanding the molecular pathogenesis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. - Highlights: • We analyzed bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in the rat. • Integrative analyses of miRNA microarray and proteomics were conducted. • We determined the alterations of miRNAs and their potential target proteins. • The alterations may control biological functions and pathways in pulmonary fibrosis. • Our result may provide new insights of pulmonary fibrosis

  5. Integrative analyses of miRNA and proteomics identify potential biological pathways associated with onset of pulmonary fibrosis in the bleomycin rat model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukunaga, Satoki [Department of Molecular Pathology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-4-3 Asahi-machi, Abeno-ku, Osaka 545-8585 (Japan); Environmental Health Science Laboratory, Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd., 3-1-98 Kasugade-Naka, Konohana-ku, Osaka 554-8558 (Japan); Kakehashi, Anna [Department of Molecular Pathology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-4-3 Asahi-machi, Abeno-ku, Osaka 545-8585 (Japan); Sumida, Kayo; Kushida, Masahiko; Asano, Hiroyuki [Environmental Health Science Laboratory, Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd., 3-1-98 Kasugade-Naka, Konohana-ku, Osaka 554-8558 (Japan); Gi, Min [Department of Molecular Pathology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-4-3 Asahi-machi, Abeno-ku, Osaka 545-8585 (Japan); Wanibuchi, Hideki, E-mail: wani@med.osaka-cu.ac.jp [Department of Molecular Pathology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-4-3 Asahi-machi, Abeno-ku, Osaka 545-8585 (Japan)

    2015-08-01

    To determine miRNAs and their predicted target proteins regulatory networks which are potentially involved in onset of pulmonary fibrosis in the bleomycin rat model, we conducted integrative miRNA microarray and iTRAQ-coupled LC-MS/MS proteomic analyses, and evaluated the significance of altered biological functions and pathways. We observed that alterations of miRNAs and proteins are associated with the early phase of bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis, and identified potential target pairs by using ingenuity pathway analysis. Using the data set of these alterations, it was demonstrated that those miRNAs, in association with their predicted target proteins, are potentially involved in canonical pathways reflective of initial epithelial injury and fibrogenic processes, and biofunctions related to induction of cellular development, movement, growth, and proliferation. Prediction of activated functions suggested that lung cells acquire proliferative, migratory, and invasive capabilities, and resistance to cell death especially in the very early phase of bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis. The present study will provide new insights for understanding the molecular pathogenesis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. - Highlights: • We analyzed bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in the rat. • Integrative analyses of miRNA microarray and proteomics were conducted. • We determined the alterations of miRNAs and their potential target proteins. • The alterations may control biological functions and pathways in pulmonary fibrosis. • Our result may provide new insights of pulmonary fibrosis.

  6. Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties: 2. Scale awareness and application to single-column model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Sha; Li, Zhijin; Liu, Yangang; Lin, Wuyin; Zhang, Minghua; Toto, Tami; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Endo, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    three-dimensional fields have been produced using the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains region. The GSI system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. From the fine-resolution three-dimensional fields, large-scale forcing is derived explicitly at grid-scale resolution; a subgrid-scale dynamic component is derived separately, representing subgrid-scale horizontal dynamic processes. Analyses show that the subgrid-scale dynamic component is often a major component over the large-scale forcing for grid scales larger than 200 km. The single-column model (SCM) of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 is used to examine the impact of the grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components on simulated precipitation and cloud fields associated with a mesoscale convective system. It is found that grid-scale size impacts simulated precipitation, resulting in an overestimation for grid scales of about 200 km but an underestimation for smaller grids. The subgrid-scale dynamic component has an appreciable impact on the simulations, suggesting that grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components should be considered in the interpretation of SCM simulations.

  7. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  8. Spin-spin interaction between polarized neutrons and polarized 27Al, 59Co, and 93Nb from dispersive optical model and coupled-channel analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagadi, M.M.; Weisel, G.J.; Walter, R.L.; Delaroche, J.P.; Romain, P.

    2004-01-01

    Coupled-channel and dispersive-optical model analyses of published neutron scattering and reaction data for 27 Al, 59 Co, and 93 Nb at incident energies between 0.1 and 80 MeV have been performed. The resulting potentials are used to place constraints on the determination of the spin-spin interaction from published spin-spin cross-section measurements. For the three nuclei, the strength of the central real spin-spin potential, which was taken to have a surface plus volume shape, was found to be small. Volume integrals for this central potential component were determined to be in the 4-7 MeV fm 3 range and to decrease somewhat as mass number increases

  9. Analysing workplace violence towards health care staff in public hospitals using alternative ordered response models: the case of north-eastern Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çelik, Ali Kemal; Oktay, Erkan; Çebi, Kübranur

    2017-09-01

    The main objective of this article is to determine key factors that may have a significant effect on the verbal abuse, emotional abuse and physical assault of health care workers in north-eastern Turkey. A self-administered survey was completed by 450 health care workers in three well-established hospitals in Erzurum, Turkey. Because of the discrete and ordered nature of the dependent variable of the survey, the data were analysed using four distinctive ordered response models. Results revealed that several key variables were found to be a significant determinant of workplace violence, such as the type of health institution, occupational position, weekly working hours, weekly shift hours, number of daily patient contacts, age group of the respondents, experience in the health sector, training against workplace violence and current policies of the hospitals and the Turkish Ministry of Health.

  10. Possible future HERA analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiser, Achim

    2015-12-01

    A variety of possible future analyses of HERA data in the context of the HERA data preservation programme is collected, motivated, and commented. The focus is placed on possible future analyses of the existing ep collider data and their physics scope. Comparisons to the original scope of the HERA pro- gramme are made, and cross references to topics also covered by other participants of the workshop are given. This includes topics on QCD, proton structure, diffraction, jets, hadronic final states, heavy flavours, electroweak physics, and the application of related theory and phenomenology topics like NNLO QCD calculations, low-x related models, nonperturbative QCD aspects, and electroweak radiative corrections. Synergies with other collider programmes are also addressed. In summary, the range of physics topics which can still be uniquely covered using the existing data is very broad and of considerable physics interest, often matching the interest of results from colliders currently in operation. Due to well-established data and MC sets, calibrations, and analysis procedures the manpower and expertise needed for a particular analysis is often very much smaller than that needed for an ongoing experiment. Since centrally funded manpower to carry out such analyses is not available any longer, this contribution not only targets experienced self-funded experimentalists, but also theorists and master-level students who might wish to carry out such an analysis.

  11. Thermoeconomic and environmental analyses of a low water consumption combined steam power plant and refrigeration chillers – Part 1: Energy and economic modelling and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ifaei, Pouya; Rashidi, Jouan; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Proposing two energy systems by combining refrigeration chillers and power plants. • Model-based comparison of the systems through energy and economic standpoints. • Reducing total annual costs of the base system up to 4.7% by process integration. • Decreasing the water loss in wet cooling towers by up to 18% in the proposed system. • Suggesting a water-fuel economic management strategy based on parametric analysis. - Abstract: Two novel configurations are proposed to replace the conventional Rankine cycle based steam power plants (SPP) with natural draft wet cooling towers (NDWCT) as cooling units. Closed feedwater heater unit of the base SPP-NDWCT system is eliminated in order to combine a vapor compression refrigeration (VCR) and an absorption heat pump (ABHP) with the base SPP-NDWCT system. Both VCR-SPP-NDWCT and ABHP-SPP-NDWCT systems are integrated to decrease the NDWCT load which could result in water losses decrease. In part one of the presented two-part paper, model-based energy and economic analyses are performed to compare systems performance and applicability. The temperature difference at pinch point and temperature difference between the hot and cold sides of the heat exchangers which were used for systems integration in VCR-SPP-NDWCT, and the absorber pressure and temperature in ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system are studied using parametric analysis procedure. A water-fuel management strategy is also introduced for the ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system according to the influence of the absorber pressure changes on system water and fuel consumption. In part 2, environmental and thermoeconomic analyses are performed to complete a comprehensive study on designing steam power plants. The results of part 1 showed that water losses and total annual costs decreased by 1–18% and 0–4.7% for the ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system but increased by 11% and 60% for the VCR-SPP-NDWCT system, respectively.

  12. Comparative supragenomic analyses among the pathogens Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Haemophilus influenzae Using a modification of the finite supragenome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Susan

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Staphylococcus aureus is associated with a spectrum of symbiotic relationships with its human host from carriage to sepsis and is frequently associated with nosocomial and community-acquired infections, thus the differential gene content among strains is of interest. Results We sequenced three clinical strains and combined these data with 13 publically available human isolates and one bovine strain for comparative genomic analyses. All genomes were annotated using RAST, and then their gene similarities and differences were delineated. Gene clustering yielded 3,155 orthologous gene clusters, of which 2,266 were core, 755 were distributed, and 134 were unique. Individual genomes contained between 2,524 and 2,648 genes. Gene-content comparisons among all possible S. aureus strain pairs (n = 136 revealed a mean difference of 296 genes and a maximum difference of 476 genes. We developed a revised version of our finite supragenome model to estimate the size of the S. aureus supragenome (3,221 genes, with 2,245 core genes, and compared it with those of Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. There was excellent agreement between RAST's annotations and our CDS clustering procedure providing for high fidelity metabolomic subsystem analyses to extend our comparative genomic characterization of these strains. Conclusions Using a multi-species comparative supragenomic analysis enabled by an improved version of our finite supragenome model we provide data and an interpretation explaining the relatively larger core genome of S. aureus compared to other opportunistic nasopharyngeal pathogens. In addition, we provide independent validation for the efficiency and effectiveness of our orthologous gene clustering algorithm.

  13. System-level insights into the cellular interactome of a non-model organism: inferring, modelling and analysing functional gene network of soybean (Glycine max.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yungang Xu

    Full Text Available Cellular interactome, in which genes and/or their products interact on several levels, forming transcriptional regulatory-, protein interaction-, metabolic-, signal transduction networks, etc., has attracted decades of research focuses. However, such a specific type of network alone can hardly explain the various interactive activities among genes. These networks characterize different interaction relationships, implying their unique intrinsic properties and defects, and covering different slices of biological information. Functional gene network (FGN, a consolidated interaction network that models fuzzy and more generalized notion of gene-gene relations, have been proposed to combine heterogeneous networks with the goal of identifying functional modules supported by multiple interaction types. There are yet no successful precedents of FGNs on sparsely studied non-model organisms, such as soybean (Glycine max, due to the absence of sufficient heterogeneous interaction data. We present an alternative solution for inferring the FGNs of soybean (SoyFGNs, in a pioneering study on the soybean interactome, which is also applicable to other organisms. SoyFGNs exhibit the typical characteristics of biological networks: scale-free, small-world architecture and modularization. Verified by co-expression and KEGG pathways, SoyFGNs are more extensive and accurate than an orthology network derived from Arabidopsis. As a case study, network-guided disease-resistance gene discovery indicates that SoyFGNs can provide system-level studies on gene functions and interactions. This work suggests that inferring and modelling the interactome of a non-model plant are feasible. It will speed up the discovery and definition of the functions and interactions of other genes that control important functions, such as nitrogen fixation and protein or lipid synthesis. The efforts of the study are the basis of our further comprehensive studies on the soybean functional

  14. Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

    2010-09-03

    Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009

  15. chemo-Hydro-mechanical modelling of in-situ disposal of a bituminized radioactive waste in boom clay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mokni, N.; Olivella, S.; Valcke, E.; Marien, A.; Smets, S.; Li, X.; Sillen, X.

    2012-01-01

    hydraulically coupled flow processes in porous materials containing salt crystals is discussed. The formulation incorporates the strong dependence of the efficiency of the membrane on porosity and assumes the existence of high concentration gradients that are maintained for a long time and that influences the density and motion of the fluid. The CHM formulation was used to analyse the influence of osmosis on the swelling of Eurobitum BW due to water uptake under laboratory conditions and a sensitivity analysis were performed in order to see the effect of the transport parameters that control the magnitude of coupled fluxes, principally chemical osmosis and ultrafiltration, on swelling and swelling rate of BW and on NaNO 3 leaching. Secondly, the CHM formulation was used to model the in-situ disposal gallery. The analysis has assumed axis-symmetric conditions. Two different geometries of the modeled domain were considered. Firstly, a section of the disposal gallery in the axial direction has been considered. This two-dimensional axisymmetric case was studied with a rectangular modeled domain. The drums of Eurobitum, the concrete container, the concrete liner, the backfill, and the host rock have been represented. However, this first configuration neglects the existence of joints between the concrete blocks that form the liner. So, secondly in order to avoid such a restriction, a section of the gallery has been taken perpendicularly to the axial direction. According to this model, the crystals dissolve and vanish and porosity increases at the outer boundary of the drums after ∼2 years while, no change is observed in the middle of the drum after ∼10 years. This suggests that it will take several years before the hydration front has reached the center of the drums. The kinetics of water supply will basically be controlled by the permeability of the host clay formation. The degree of saturation and water pressure will increase in the disposal system including the artificial

  16. Understanding the nature of errors in nursing: using a model to analyse critical incident reports of errors which had resulted in an adverse or potentially adverse event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meurier, C E

    2000-07-01

    Human errors are common in clinical practice, but they are under-reported. As a result, very little is known of the types, antecedents and consequences of errors in nursing practice. This limits the potential to learn from errors and to make improvement in the quality and safety of nursing care. The aim of this study was to use an Organizational Accident Model to analyse critical incidents of errors in nursing. Twenty registered nurses were invited to produce a critical incident report of an error (which had led to an adverse event or potentially could have led to an adverse event) they had made in their professional practice and to write down their responses to the error using a structured format. Using Reason's Organizational Accident Model, supplemental information was then collected from five of the participants by means of an individual in-depth interview to explore further issues relating to the incidents they had reported. The detailed analysis of one of the incidents is discussed in this paper, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in providing insight into the chain of events which may lead to an adverse event. The case study approach using critical incidents of clinical errors was shown to provide relevant information regarding the interaction of organizational factors, local circumstances and active failures (errors) in producing an adverse or potentially adverse event. It is suggested that more use should be made of this approach to understand how errors are made in practice and to take appropriate preventative measures.

  17. The production phase model as a tool for analysing and structuring the database of an operation management system; Das Phasenmodell der Produktion als ein Werkzeug fuer Analyse und Strukturierung der Datenbasis eines Betriebsmanagementsystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rauprich, G.; Polke, B.

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents a process analysis which was carried out with the aid of a phase model for the purpose of supporting the start-up phase of an operation management system. Beside providing a functional structure for the database this process analysis permits a functional and consistent representation of the process at as crude or detailed a level as desired. In this way the phase model supplies a functional model of the process which serves the purposes of both the process control and the operation control level. Once the phase model has been created it largely only depends on the question being asked which level of detail and what properties of the relevant process elements and material and energy flows are used. [Deutsch] Eine mit Hilfe des Phasenmodells durchgefuehrte Prozessanalyse unterstuetzt die Einfuehrungsphase eines Betriebsmanagementsystems. Sie gibt eine funktionale Struktur der Datenbank vor und erlaubt darueberhinaus auf der Ebene des Betriebsmanagementsystems eine funktionale, konsistente, beliebig grobe oder feine detaillierte Darstellung des Prozesses. Die Phasenmodellierung liefert damit sowohl fuer die Prozessleitebene als auch fuer die Betriebsleitebene ein ganzheitliches, funktionales Modell des Prozesses. Wenn das Phasenmodell erst einmal erstellt ist, ist es im wesentlichen nur abhaengig von der Fragestellung, welche Detaillierungsebenen mit welchen Eigenschaften der relevanten Prozesselemente und Material-/Energiestroeme verwendet werden. (orig./RHM)

  18. Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrospide, Arantzazu; Idigoras, Isabel; Mar, Javier; de Koning, Harry; van der Meulen, Miriam; Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Martinez-Llorente, Jose Miguel; Portillo, Isabel; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Ibarrondo, Oliver; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

    2018-04-25

    The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme began in 2009 and the implementation has been complete since 2013. Faecal immunological testing was used for screening in individuals between 50 and 69 years old. Colorectal Cancer in Basque country is characterized by unusual epidemiological features given that Colorectal Cancer incidence is similar to other European countries while adenoma prevalence is higher. The object of our study was to economically evaluate the programme via cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses with microsimulation models. We applied the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN)-Colon model to predict trends in Colorectal Cancer incidence and mortality and to quantify the short- and long-term effects and costs of the Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme. The model was calibrated to the Basque demographics in 2008 and age-specific Colorectal Cancer incidence data in the Basque Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2008 before the screening begun. The model was also calibrated to the high adenoma prevalence observed for the Basque population in a previously published study. The multi-cohort approach used in the model included all the cohorts in the programme during 30 years of implementation, with lifetime follow-up. Unit costs were obtained from the Basque Health Service and both cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were carried out. The goodness-of-fit of the model adaptation to observed programme data was evidence of validation. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the savings from treatment were larger than the added costs due to screening. Thus, the Basque programme was dominant compared to no screening, as life expectancy increased by 29.3 days per person. The savings in the budget analysis appeared 10 years after the complete implementation of the programme. The average annual budget was €73.4 million from year 2023 onwards. This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain

  19. A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: case study of industrial development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miranda-da-Cruz, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20-40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20-40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the

  20. Network class superposition analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl A B Pearson

    Full Text Available Networks are often used to understand a whole system by modeling the interactions among its pieces. Examples include biomolecules in a cell interacting to provide some primary function, or species in an environment forming a stable community. However, these interactions are often unknown; instead, the pieces' dynamic states are known, and network structure must be inferred. Because observed function may be explained by many different networks (e.g., ≈ 10(30 for the yeast cell cycle process, considering dynamics beyond this primary function means picking a single network or suitable sample: measuring over all networks exhibiting the primary function is computationally infeasible. We circumvent that obstacle by calculating the network class ensemble. We represent the ensemble by a stochastic matrix T, which is a transition-by-transition superposition of the system dynamics for each member of the class. We present concrete results for T derived from boolean time series dynamics on networks obeying the Strong Inhibition rule, by applying T to several traditional questions about network dynamics. We show that the distribution of the number of point attractors can be accurately estimated with T. We show how to generate Derrida plots based on T. We show that T-based Shannon entropy outperforms other methods at selecting experiments to further narrow the network structure. We also outline an experimental test of predictions based on T. We motivate all of these results in terms of a popular molecular biology boolean network model for the yeast cell cycle, but the methods and analyses we introduce are general. We conclude with open questions for T, for example, application to other models, computational considerations when scaling up to larger systems, and other potential analyses.

  1. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

  2. Light particle probes of expansion and temperature evolution: Coalescence model analyses of heavy ion collisions at 47A MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagel, K.; Wada, R.; Cibor, J.; Lunardon, M.; Marie, N.; Alfaro, R.; Shen, W.; Xiao, B.; Zhao, Y.; Majka, Z.

    2000-01-01

    The reactions 12 C+ 116 Sn, 22 Ne+Ag, 40 Ar+ 100 Mo, and 64 Zn+ 89 Y have been studied at 47A MeV projectile energy. For these reactions the most violent collisions lead to increasing amounts of fragment and light particle emission as the projectile mass increases. This is consistent with quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) model simulations of the collisions. Moving source fits to the light charged particle data have been used to gain a global view of the evolution of the particle emission. Comparisons of the multiplicities and spectra of light charged particles emitted in the reactions with the four different projectiles indicate a common emission mechanism for early emitted ejectiles even though the deposited excitation energies differ greatly. The spectra for such ejectiles can be characterized as emission in the nucleon-nucleon frame. Evidence that the 3 He yield is dominated by this type of emission and the role of the collision dynamics in determining the 3 H/ 3 He yield ratio are discussed. Self-consistent coalescence model analyses are applied to the light cluster yields, in an attempt to probe emitter source sizes and to follow the evolution of the temperatures and densities from the time of first particle emission to equilibration. These analyses exploit correlations between ejectile energy and emission time, suggested by the QMD calculations. In this analysis the degree of expansion of the emitting system is found to increase with increasing projectile mass. The double isotope yield ratio temperature drops as the system expands. Average densities as low as 0.36ρ 0 are reached at a time near 100 fm/c after contact. Calorimetric methods were used to derive the mass and excitation energy of the excited nuclei which are present after preequilibrium emission. The derived masses range from 102 to 116 u and the derived excitation energies increase from 2.6 to 6.9 MeV/nucleon with increasing projectile mass. A caloric curve is derived for these expanded A∼110

  3. The Effect of Transcultural Nursing, Child Healthcare Model and Transtheoretical Model Approaches to Knowledge and Culture of Family

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadek Ayu Erika

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Urban lifestyle fueled by excessive food intake in overweight and obese children. Famili esassumethatobese children are healthy and have no health problems. Strategies to improve the knowledge and culture of the family is the approaches of TCN, CHM dan TTM. This study aims to prove the influence of TCN, CHM and TTM to knowledge and culture’s familyin controlling lifestyle of over weight and obese children. Method: This research was conducted in the areas of Biring kanaya and Tamalanrea Subdistricts, Makassar from August 2013 to March 2014. It used the Quasy Experiment design namely pre-test and post-test with control group design. Research subjects were parents of overweight or obese children in the 4th, 5th, and 6th grade of elementary school. There were 31 samples in the treatment group; and 33 samples in the control group. There were selected by using purposive sampling technique. The intervention was given for six months by providing guide books on healthy lifestyle, and visiting the families every month to give questionnaires. The measurements of children’s BMI was conducted by use WHO’s Antrho Plus software, 2007. The data were analyzed by using univariate, bivariate with Independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test and Paired t-test. Result: The results showed that there were differences in mean changes before and after the intervention, namely knowledge of the family with p=0:00 and cultural family with p=0:00. Discussion: It was concluded that the effect of TCN, CHM, and TTM could improve the knowledge and cultural family in controlling lifestyle of overweight and obese children. The importance of health education is given to families with guide books about healthy lifestyles and the impact of child obesity. Keywords: transcultural nursing theory, child health care, transtheoretical model, knowledge, cultural, family

  4. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Zachary M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Murphy, Lisa N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Li, Fiyu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Bonfils, Celine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.

    2012-01-15

    We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  5. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Riley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1 to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  6. Genome-wide investigation and expression analyses of WD40 protein family in the model plant foxtail millet (Setaria italica L..

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awdhesh Kumar Mishra

    Full Text Available WD40 proteins play a crucial role in diverse protein-protein interactions by acting as scaffolding molecules and thus assisting in the proper activity of proteins. Hence, systematic characterization and expression profiling of these WD40 genes in foxtail millet would enable us to understand the networks of WD40 proteins and their biological processes and gene functions. In the present study, a genome-wide survey was conducted and 225 potential WD40 genes were identified. Phylogenetic analysis categorized the WD40 proteins into 5 distinct sub-families (I-V. Gene Ontology annotation revealed the biological roles of the WD40 proteins along with its cellular components and molecular functions. In silico comparative mapping with sorghum, maize and rice demonstrated the orthologous relationships and chromosomal rearrangements including duplication, inversion and deletion of WD40 genes. Estimation of synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates revealed its evolutionary significance in terms of gene-duplication and divergence. Expression profiling against abiotic stresses provided novel insights into specific and/or overlapping expression patterns of SiWD40 genes. Homology modeling enabled three-dimensional structure prediction was performed to understand the molecular functions of WD40 proteins. Although, recent findings had shown the importance of WD40 domains in acting as hubs for cellular networks during many biological processes, it has invited a lesser research attention unlike other common domains. Being a most promiscuous interactors, WD40 domains are versatile in mediating critical cellular functions and hence this genome-wide study especially in the model crop foxtail millet would serve as a blue-print for functional characterization of WD40s in millets and bioenergy grass species. In addition, the present analyses would also assist the research community in choosing the candidate WD40s for comprehensive studies towards crop improvement

  7. Genome-wide investigation and expression analyses of WD40 protein family in the model plant foxtail millet (Setaria italica L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Awdhesh Kumar; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Khan, Yusuf; Parida, Swarup Kumar; Prasad, Manoj

    2014-01-01

    WD40 proteins play a crucial role in diverse protein-protein interactions by acting as scaffolding molecules and thus assisting in the proper activity of proteins. Hence, systematic characterization and expression profiling of these WD40 genes in foxtail millet would enable us to understand the networks of WD40 proteins and their biological processes and gene functions. In the present study, a genome-wide survey was conducted and 225 potential WD40 genes were identified. Phylogenetic analysis categorized the WD40 proteins into 5 distinct sub-families (I-V). Gene Ontology annotation revealed the biological roles of the WD40 proteins along with its cellular components and molecular functions. In silico comparative mapping with sorghum, maize and rice demonstrated the orthologous relationships and chromosomal rearrangements including duplication, inversion and deletion of WD40 genes. Estimation of synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates revealed its evolutionary significance in terms of gene-duplication and divergence. Expression profiling against abiotic stresses provided novel insights into specific and/or overlapping expression patterns of SiWD40 genes. Homology modeling enabled three-dimensional structure prediction was performed to understand the molecular functions of WD40 proteins. Although, recent findings had shown the importance of WD40 domains in acting as hubs for cellular networks during many biological processes, it has invited a lesser research attention unlike other common domains. Being a most promiscuous interactors, WD40 domains are versatile in mediating critical cellular functions and hence this genome-wide study especially in the model crop foxtail millet would serve as a blue-print for functional characterization of WD40s in millets and bioenergy grass species. In addition, the present analyses would also assist the research community in choosing the candidate WD40s for comprehensive studies towards crop improvement of millets and

  8. Propensity-score matching in economic analyses: comparison with regression models, instrumental variables, residual inclusion, differences-in-differences, and decomposition methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crown, William H

    2014-02-01

    This paper examines the use of propensity score matching in economic analyses of observational data. Several excellent papers have previously reviewed practical aspects of propensity score estimation and other aspects of the propensity score literature. The purpose of this paper is to compare the conceptual foundation of propensity score models with alternative estimators of treatment effects. References are provided to empirical comparisons among methods that have appeared in the literature. These comparisons are available for a subset of the methods considered in this paper. However, in some cases, no pairwise comparisons of particular methods are yet available, and there are no examples of comparisons across all of the methods surveyed here. Irrespective of the availability of empirical comparisons, the goal of this paper is to provide some intuition about the relative merits of alternative estimators in health economic evaluations where nonlinearity, sample size, availability of pre/post data, heterogeneity, and missing variables can have important implications for choice of methodology. Also considered is the potential combination of propensity score matching with alternative methods such as differences-in-differences and decomposition methods that have not yet appeared in the empirical literature.

  9. Analysing the mechanical performance and growth adaptation of Norway spruce using a non-linear finite-element model and experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, T; Jonas, T; Volkwein, A

    2008-01-01

    Thirteen Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] trees of different size, age, and social status, and grown under varying conditions, were investigated to see how they react to complex natural static loading under summer and winter conditions, and how they have adapted their growth to such combinations of load and tree state. For this purpose a non-linear finite-element model and an extensive experimental data set were used, as well as a new formulation describing the degree to which the exploitation of the bending stress capacity is uniform. The three main findings were: material and geometric non-linearities play important roles when analysing tree deflections and critical loads; the strengths of the stem and the anchorage mutually adapt to the local wind acting on the tree crown in the forest canopy; and the radial stem growth follows a mechanically high-performance path because it adapts to prevailing as well as acute seasonal combinations of the tree state (e.g. frozen or unfrozen stem and anchorage) and load (e.g. wind and vertical and lateral snow pressure). Young trees appeared to adapt to such combinations in a more differentiated way than older trees. In conclusion, the mechanical performance of the Norway spruce studied was mostly very high, indicating that their overall growth had been clearly influenced by the external site- and tree-specific mechanical stress.

  10. Using observed load distributions with a simple model to analyse the epidemiology of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on sea trout (Salmo trutta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Alexander G

    2002-06-01

    Sea lice are ectoparasites of salmonids that have been associated with the recent decline in sea trout numbers in north-west Europe. Observed patterns of louse load distribution between sea trout in the seas surrounding the UK, Ireland and Norway and a simple model have been used to analyse the epidemiology of lice. Loads are aggregated and deviate strongly from the Poisson distribution, although less than is observed with many other parasites. The louse numbers on fish from offshore sites are slightly less variable than for fish from coastal sites with comparable mean loads. Analysis of louse development stages and sexes shows that selection between hosts by sea lice plays a limited role. If host selection is absent, then associated poor condition would be caused by, not the cause of, high louse burdens; however the absence of such selection is not proved. Scenarios with infection that is patchy in space and time best generate the aggregated load patterns observed; these patches accord with observed swarms of copepodids. Prevalence patterns may indicate the movement of trout between environments. Control of copepodids in infection 'hot spots', either directly or through control of louse egg production in their catchment, may reduce louse loads on wild sea trout and, in particular, extreme and damaging loads.

  11. Morphological and functional analyses of skeletal muscles from an immunodeficient animal model of limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2E.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannelli, Gaia; Giacomazzi, Giorgia; Grosemans, Hanne; Sampaolesi, Maurilio

    2018-02-24

    Limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2E (LGMD2E) is caused by mutations in the β-sarcoglycan gene, which is expressed in skeletal, cardiac, and smooth muscles. β-Sarcoglycan-deficient (Sgcb-null) mice develop severe muscular dystrophy and cardiomyopathy with focal areas of necrosis. In this study we performed morphological (histological and cellular characterization) and functional (isometric tetanic force and fatigue) analyses in dystrophic mice. Comparison studies were carried out in 1-month-old (clinical onset of the disease) and 7-month-old control mice (C57Bl/6J, Rag2/γc-null) and immunocompetent and immunodeficient dystrophic mice (Sgcb-null and Sgcb/Rag2/γc-null, respectively). We found that the lack of an immunological system resulted in an increase of calcification in striated muscles without impairing extensor digitorum longus muscle performance. Sgcb/Rag2/γc-null muscles showed a significant reduction of alkaline phosphate-positive mesoangioblasts. The immunological system counteracts skeletal muscle degeneration in the murine model of LGMD2E. Muscle Nerve, 2018. © 2018 The Authors. Muscle & Nerve Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Pertinence de l’utilisation du modèle de Toulmin dans l’analyse de corpus The relevance of Toulmin’s model in case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel de Jonge

    2008-09-01

    la Seconde Guerre Mondiale constituera un anti-exemple dans lequel il faut puiser les moyens d’éviter la reproduction de l’événement. Nous utiliserons le terme de désenchantement pour qualifier cette disposition psycho-cognitive qui affecte toute la rhétorique. Au niveau des discours d’opposition, on constate une immixtion du génocide dans le politique, que ce soit dans les discours négationnistes, théories du complot, ou dans les discours sur l’esclavage, mettant en jeu une concurrence des victimes. La méthode d’analyse toulminienne permet cet éclairage, et établit ainsi un lien essentiel entre la rhétorique et l’analyse du discours.How can we use Toulmin’s model in the analysis of specific case studies? It seems that it has been almost exclusively used for either discussions in logical reasoning, or for theoretical discussions about probability. In this article, I want to show that Toulmin’s model can be very useful for Discourse Analysis since it allows the analyst to extract mostly implicit warrants and backings. In my view, the notion of backing is related, on the one hand, to its technical argumentative side, and on the other hand, to the psycho-cognitive foundation of any reasoning, linked both to cognitive dispositions and to cultural factors. The Toulminian analysis thus proves to be very interesting when discussing deep-level arguments in a text. The article is divided into two sections. The first one is devoted to a comparative analysis of three Declarations: the 1776 American Declaration of Independence, the 1789 Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen, and the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. I assume that the declarations constitute the linguistic expression of the deep-level or “backing” of society’s discourses. They show which warrants the argumentation is based on, in other words, on the basis of which values the society is going to argue. In the specific context of democracies concerned with

  13. Combined analyses of costs, market value and eco-costs in circular business models : eco-efficient value creation in remanufacturing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogtländer, J.G.; Scheepens, A.E.; Bocken, N.M.P.; Peck, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    Eco-efficient Value Creation is a method to analyse innovative product and service design together with circular business strategies. The method is based on combined analyses of the costs, market value (perceived customer value) and eco-costs. This provides a prevention-based single indicator for

  14. A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

    2018-06-01

    Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

  15. First study of correlation between oleic acid content and SAD gene polymorphism in olive oil samples through statistical and bayesian modeling analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ayed, Rayda; Ennouri, Karim; Ercişli, Sezai; Ben Hlima, Hajer; Hanana, Mohsen; Smaoui, Slim; Rebai, Ahmed; Moreau, Fabienne

    2018-04-10

    Virgin olive oil is appreciated for its particular aroma and taste and is recognized worldwide for its nutritional value and health benefits. The olive oil contains a vast range of healthy compounds such as monounsaturated free fatty acids, especially, oleic acid. The SAD.1 polymorphism localized in the Stearoyl-acyl carrier protein desaturase gene (SAD) was genotyped and showed that it is associated with the oleic acid composition of olive oil samples. However, the effect of polymorphisms in fatty acid-related genes on olive oil monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids distribution in the Tunisian olive oil varieties is not understood. Seventeen Tunisian olive-tree varieties were selected for fatty acid content analysis by gas chromatography. The association of SAD.1 genotypes with the fatty acids composition was studied by statistical and Bayesian modeling analyses. Fatty acid content analysis showed interestingly that some Tunisian virgin olive oil varieties could be classified as a functional food and nutraceuticals due to their particular richness in oleic acid. In fact, the TT-SAD.1 genotype was found to be associated with a higher proportion of mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), mainly oleic acid (C18:1) (r = - 0.79, p SAD.1 association with the oleic acid composition of olive oil was identified among the studied varieties. This correlation fluctuated between studied varieties, which might elucidate variability in lipidic composition among them and therefore reflecting genetic diversity through differences in gene expression and biochemical pathways. SAD locus would represent an excellent marker for identifying interesting amongst virgin olive oil lipidic composition.

  16. Mitochondrial DNA analyses and ecological niche modeling reveal post-LGM expansion of the Assam macaque (Macaca assamensis) in the foothills of Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanal, Laxman; Chalise, Mukesh K; He, Kai; Acharya, Bipin K; Kawamoto, Yoshi; Jiang, Xuelong

    2018-03-01

    Genetic diversity of a species is influenced by multiple factors, including the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and geophysical barriers. Such factors are not yet well documented for fauna from the southern border of the Himalayan region. This study used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to explore how the late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and complex geography of the Himalayan region have shaped genetic diversity, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the Nepalese population of Assam macaques (Macaca assamensis) in the Himalayan foothills. A total of 277 fecal samples were collected from 39 wild troops over almost the entire distribution of the species in Nepal. The mtDNA fragment encompassing the complete control region (1121 bp) was recovered from 208 samples, thus defining 54 haplotypes. Results showed low nucleotide diversity (0.0075 ± SD 0.0001) but high haplotype diversity (0.965 ± SD 0.004). The mtDNA sequences revealed a shallow population genetic structure with a moderate but statistically significant effect of isolation by distance. Demographic history analyses using mtDNA sequences suggested a post-pleistocene population expansion. Paleodistribution reconstruction projected that the potential habitat of the Assam macaque was confined to the lower elevations of central Nepal during the Last Glacial Maximum. With the onset of the Holocene climatic optimum, the glacial refugia population experienced eastward range expansion to higher elevations. We conclude that the low genetic diversity and shallow population genetic structure of the Assam macaque population in the Nepal Himalaya region are the consequence of recent demographic and spatial expansion. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Introducing a Global Optical Model Approach for Analysing 16O+16O Elastic Scattering at 5-10MeV/nucleon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Küçükoğlu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In this paper, the experimental data on elastic scattering of the 16O+16O reaction for the energy range 5-10 MeV/nucleon have been analyzed within the optical model (OM formalism by using the phenomenological potential forms in Fresco code. When developing the shape of the nuclear potential for the calculations, we have used the Woods-Saxon (WS or Woods-Saxon squared (WS2 potentials for the imaginary part together with a WS2 type real part. Although most of the previous OM analyses using phenomenological potentials have provided reasonably good fits with the experimental measurements, none of them could completely relate the behavior of the imaginary potential to the energy of the projectile yet. However, we have managed to introduce two analyses that can keep the real potential parameters almost constant and suggest a linear expression for the depth of the imaginary part of the nuclear potential depending on the incidence energy. Thus, 16O+16O system within this wide energy range has been described globally by the optical potentials having a deep, attractive real potential part and a weaker, energy dependent absorptive imaginary potential part. It has been also shown that, our calculations with these potential forms can reproduce the experimental elastic scattering angular distributions successfully and the maxima and minima are predicted correctly for most of the energies. Key words: 16O+16O reaction, optical model, elastic scattering, cross-section, phenomenological potentials. 5-10MeV/nükleon Bölgesinde 16O+16O Esnek Saçılmasının Analizi için Global bir Optik Model Yaklaşımının Tanıtılması Özet: Bu çalışmada 5-10 MeV/nükleon enerji aralığında 16O+16O reaksiyonunun deneysel esnek saçılma verileri, optik model (OM formalizmi altında, Fresco kodunda fenomenolojik potansiyel formları kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Hesaplamalar için nükleer potansiyelin şekli oluşturulurken gerçel kısım için Woods

  18. Development of a model performance-based sign sheeting specification based on the evaluation of nighttime traffic signs using legibility and eye-tracker data : data and analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    This report presents data and technical analyses for Texas Department of Transportation Project 0-5235. This : project focused on the evaluation of traffic sign sheeting performance in terms of meeting the nighttime : driver needs. The goal was to de...

  19. NOAA's National Snow Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, T. R.; Cline, D. W.; Olheiser, C. M.; Rost, A. A.; Nilsson, A. O.; Fall, G. M.; Li, L.; Bovitz, C. T.

    2005-12-01

    NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) routinely ingests all of the electronically available, real-time, ground-based, snow data; airborne snow water equivalent data; satellite areal extent of snow cover information; and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forcings for the coterminous U.S. The NWP model forcings are physically downscaled from their native 13 km2 spatial resolution to a 1 km2 resolution for the CONUS. The downscaled NWP forcings drive an energy-and-mass-balance snow accumulation and ablation model at a 1 km2 spatial resolution and at a 1 hour temporal resolution for the country. The ground-based, airborne, and satellite snow observations are assimilated into the snow model's simulated state variables using a Newtonian nudging technique. The principle advantages of the assimilation technique are: (1) approximate balance is maintained in the snow model, (2) physical processes are easily accommodated in the model, and (3) asynoptic data are incorporated at the appropriate times. The snow model is reinitialized with the assimilated snow observations to generate a variety of snow products that combine to form NOAA's NOHRSC National Snow Analyses (NSA). The NOHRSC NSA incorporate all of the available information necessary and available to produce a "best estimate" of real-time snow cover conditions at 1 km2 spatial resolution and 1 hour temporal resolution for the country. The NOHRSC NSA consist of a variety of daily, operational, products that characterize real-time snowpack conditions including: snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface and internal snowpack temperatures, surface and blowing snow sublimation, and snowmelt for the CONUS. The products are generated and distributed in a variety of formats including: interactive maps, time-series, alphanumeric products (e.g., mean areal snow water equivalent on a hydrologic basin-by-basin basis), text and map discussions, map animations, and quantitative gridded products

  20. The role of a FADS1 polymorphism in the association of fatty acid blood levels, BMI and blood pressure in young children-Analyses based on path models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maike Wolters

    Full Text Available The recent obesity epidemic in children also showed an increase in the prevalence of hypertension. As blood pressure (BP is associated with (long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC PUFA, genetic variation in desaturase enzymes being involved in the synthesis of LC PUFA may be associated with BP. This study aimed to investigate the direct effects (independent of mediating variables and indirect effects (mediated through intermediate variables of a common variant in the FADS1 gene, rs174546, known to affect delta-5 desaturase (D5D activity on PUFA level, body mass index (BMI and BP.A subsample of the IDEFICS (Identification and prevention of dietary- and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants baseline survey including 520 children aged 2 to <10 years from six European countries was included. The association between rs174546 (Tmodel analyses, adjusting for sex, age, educational level of parents, family history of hypertension, lifestyle factors and blood levels of saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids, triglycerides and low density lipoprotein cholesterol. Whole blood fatty acids were measured by a validated gas chromatographic method and recorded as percentage of weight of all fatty acids detected.Minor allele carriers of the SNP rs174546 had significantly higher DGLA and lower ARA and EPA levels as well as a lower D5D index. Via ARA and BMI z-score, the polymorphism had an indirect lowering effect on systolic BP z-score for each additional T allele (standardized effect estimate -0.057, p = 0.007. For DGLA, EPA and D5D index, the indirect effects of rs174546 on systolic BP were also negative but did not reach significance. DGLA and EPA had an increasing indirect effect on

  1. 114_606 - 614_CHM 044 Ali Ahmed

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    ABSTRACT. Liquid phase adsorption experiments were. (MO) ... tential of zero charge (pHpzc) measurements.. Three different ... Surface characterization of the adsorbent revea he cloudy and ..... dye, due to electrostatic attractio adsorption ...

  2. Dicty_cDB: CHM552 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available actuca sativa cDNA clone QGB20J11, mRNA sequence. 80 6e-11 1 CV164410 |CV164410.1 rsmsxl_003361.y1.scf cDNA ...Library of Salvia miltiorrhiza Salvia miltiorrhiza cDNA 5', mRNA sequence. 54 3e-09 3 CV172465 |CV172465.1 rsmsx

  3. Dicty_cDB: CHM217 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available .ab1 QG_EFGHJ lettuce serriola Lactuca sativa cDNA clone QGJ1L02, mRNA sequence. 80 6e-11 1 CV164410 |CV164410.1 rsmsx... 3e-09 3 CV172465 |CV172465.1 rsmsxlre_008717.z1.scf cDNA Library of Salvia milti

  4. Dicty_cDB: CHM726 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available -- Translated Amino Acid sequence (All Frames) Frame A: ffxxkkkkkkkfffxxkxfxxxkxxxxxxkxxxfxkxfffxkkkxflxxf*kkkkxxfff xxxxxgfxki*kkxxx...gxkkkxfxkxggxxlxxqkkxkkxfxxxggxxppxkkkgxpxkx ppxxxxkxfgxxxx...fxgppkkkkxppfxxlxxkxxrgxxxxxxkxpfsxffwxggggggg xfsxgggggxxfxgapxxxpxgaxxxxpxxkkknxxxspxxxxppxffffkkk--- F...rame B: ffxkkkkkkknffxxlkxxxxkkxxxxxxkxxffxkxfffxkkxxf*xxfkkkkrxffff xxxxgxxkkfkkxxxxgkkkxxxkkxgxxpfxpkkkxkkxfxxggxxx...ppxkkkxprxkx ppxxxxxxlgxxxxfxapqkkkxaplfxx*xxkxkgvxxxxtxkxxfxxffgxggggggv xfpgggggxxxfxgpxxxxxx

  5. 106_565 - 569_CHM 005 Dagari , Saulawa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    production of reactive oxygen species (RO such as O2·– and ... be initiated by enzyme activity such as that o lipoxygenase (LOX) ... of Pure and Industrial Chemistry, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria hemistry, Kano ..... advantages which include low economic costs and the ... mining and processing industries,. Journal of ...

  6. Dicty_cDB: CHM132 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available TTGAAAATAGTTACTCNCAANATGNATNGTTTG TTCCAATGGATTGGTTGGAANATAAGGTTACCNCTGGNGAATCTGTGTTCNCAGTTAGTG GAANAATANATTCAAATAAAACCGTNTCCATANA...NATGTGCCAATGGNACAATTCCAACCT ATACTATCGCTGCAACTCGTTGTTTATCATTCAGTGGTTGTGNACATANAGGAATTTGTC CNTTGGTTGTTCCAGGTTG...ATAAGGTTACCNCTGGNGAATCTGTGTTCNCAGTTAGTGGAANAATANA TTCAAATAAAACCGTNTCCATANATTATATGTTTATTAGTTTACCTGATCCAAAATTA...TG TCCAAAGGAATTAATTGCTGTTANATGTGCCAATGGNACAATTCCAACCTATACTATCGC TGCAACTCGTTGTTTATCATTCAGTGGTTGTGNACATANA...GAATTAATTGCTGTTANATGTGCCAATGGNACAATTCCAACCTATACTATCGCT GCAACTCGTTGTTTATCATTCAGTGGTTGTGNACATANA

  7. Dicty_cDB: CHM488 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available TTTTATTCAAANTAGGNTTGGNTGGTCCNTTCATANATTATAGTAGTCAAATTTTAG TTCNTTTNATAAGCAAAGTTAAA...TTATTGTTATTAACAATCCTATTGGGNGGNGNTGGNT TNGTTTTATTCAAANTAGGNTTGGNTGGTCCNTTCATANATTATAGTAGTCAAATTTTAG TTCNTTTNA

  8. Dicty_cDB: CHM421 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available 002.10.25 Translated Amino Acid sequence x*mittnvqxmhvpkkxx*lipqsilmitmpvqlmhvqkkvv*lilxsilmitmlvpltp vhhqla...fptpqltvmivihvp*thvqiqpvvatlqsmlmiiihvl*ihvpnqqvslipxs m*mittnvqlmhvpkkvv*lilqsilmitm...LIGGLIGGGTGGKGIAKLVKIKNSF Frame B: x*mittnvqxmhvpkkxx*lipqsilmitmpvqlmhvqkkvv*lilxsilmitmlvpltp vhhqlafptpql...tvmivihvp*thvqiqpvvatlqsmlmiiihvl*ihvpnqqvslipxs m*mittnvqlmhvpkkvv*lilqsilmitmhvplipvhhqlvfptlqltvmivihvl*i

  9. 107_570 - 574_CHM 019 Gumel Chitosan

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    2017-06-15

    - molecules, support of biosensors, heavy metals removal and removal of radioactive waste. This has gained the attention of many researchers and made them search for more new chitin source. Crab, shrimp and cray fish has ...

  10. Dicty_cDB: CHM148 [Dicty_cDB

    Lifescience Database Archive