WorldWideScience

Sample records for models case studies

  1. Mining Product Data Models: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two case studies used to prove the validity of some data-flow mining algorithms. We proposed the data-flow mining algorithms because most part of mining algorithms focuses on the control-flow perspective. First case study uses event logs generated by an ERP system (Navision after we set several trackers on the data elements needed in the process analyzed; while the second case study uses the event logs generated by YAWL system. We offered a general solution of data-flow model extraction from different data sources. In order to apply the data-flow mining algorithms the event logs must comply a certain format (using InputOutput extension. But to respect this format, a set of conversion tools is needed. We depicted the conversion tools used and how we got the data-flow models. Moreover, the data-flow model is compared to the control-flow model.

  2. Mathematical modelling a case studies approach

    CERN Document Server

    Illner, Reinhard; McCollum, Samantha; Roode, Thea van

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical modelling is a subject without boundaries. It is the means by which mathematics becomes useful to virtually any subject. Moreover, modelling has been and continues to be a driving force for the development of mathematics itself. This book explains the process of modelling real situations to obtain mathematical problems that can be analyzed, thus solving the original problem. The presentation is in the form of case studies, which are developed much as they would be in true applications. In many cases, an initial model is created, then modified along the way. Some cases are familiar, such as the evaluation of an annuity. Others are unique, such as the fascinating situation in which an engineer, armed only with a slide rule, had 24 hours to compute whether a valve would hold when a temporary rock plug was removed from a water tunnel. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises and some suggestions for class projects. Some projects are extensive, as with the explorations of the predator-prey model; oth...

  3. Mathematical modelling with case studies using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2014-01-01

    Introduction to Mathematical ModelingMathematical models An overview of the book Some modeling approaches Modeling for decision makingCompartmental Models Introduction Exponential decay and radioactivity Case study: detecting art forgeries Case study: Pacific rats colonize New Zealand Lake pollution models Case study: Lake Burley Griffin Drug assimilation into the blood Case study: dull, dizzy, or dead? Cascades of compartments First-order linear DEs Equilibrium points and stability Case study: money, money, money makes the world go aroundModels of Single PopulationsExponential growth Density-

  4. A Case Study Application Of Time Study Model In Paint ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a case study in the development and application of a time study model in a paint manufacturing company. The organization specializes in the production of different grades of paint and paint containers. The paint production activities include; weighing of raw materials, drying of raw materials, dissolving ...

  5. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...

  6. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  7. Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2008-01-01

    This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

  8. Singularity analysis in nonlinear biomathematical models: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meletlidou, E.; Leach, P.G.L.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the possession of the Painleve Property for certain values of the parameters in two biological models. The first is a metapopulation model for two species (prey and predator) and the second one is a study of a sexually transmitted disease, into which 'education' is introduced. We determine the cases for which the systems possess the Painleve Property, in particular some of the cases for which the equations can be directly integrated. We draw conclusions for these cases

  9. Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metselaar, K.

    1999-01-01

    Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize

  10. Computerised modelling for developmental biology : an exploration with case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bertens, Laura M.F.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies in developmental biology rely on the construction and analysis of models. This research presents a broad view of modelling approaches for developmental biology, with a focus on computational methods. An overview of modelling techniques is given, followed by several case studies. Using

  11. Service-oriented enterprise modelling and analysis: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Jonkers, H.; Lankhorst, M.M.; Steen, M.W.A.

    2007-01-01

    In order to validate the concepts and techniques for service-oriented enterprise architecture modelling, developed in the ArchiMate project (Lankhorst, et al., 2005), we have conducted a number of case studies. This paper describes one of these case studies, conducted at the Dutch Tax and Customs

  12. Case Studies in Modelling, Control in Food Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassey, J; Barone, A; Montague, G A; Sabou, V

    This chapter discusses the importance of modelling and control in increasing food process efficiency and ensuring product quality. Various approaches to both modelling and control in food processing are set in the context of the specific challenges in this industrial sector and latest developments in each area are discussed. Three industrial case studies are used to demonstrate the benefits of advanced measurement, modelling and control in food processes. The first case study illustrates the use of knowledge elicitation from expert operators in the process for the manufacture of potato chips (French fries) and the consequent improvements in process control to increase the consistency of the resulting product. The second case study highlights the economic benefits of tighter control of an important process parameter, moisture content, in potato crisp (chips) manufacture. The final case study describes the use of NIR spectroscopy in ensuring effective mixing of dry multicomponent mixtures and pastes. Practical implementation tips and infrastructure requirements are also discussed.

  13. Use of travel cost models in planning: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan Marsinko; William T. Zawacki; J. Michael Bowker

    2002-01-01

    This article examines the use of the travel cost, method in tourism-related decision making in the area of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation. A travel cost model of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation, developed by Zawacki, Maninko, and Bowker, is used as a case study for this analysis. The travel cost model estimates the demand for the activity...

  14. Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Gustavsson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

  15. A case study of consensus modelling for tracking oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Brian; Brushett, Ben; Lemckert, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to marine incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the likely drift pattern and the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast models and two wind forecast models currently used operationally in the Australia and Asia Pacific region. The availability of several different forecast models provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different model and determining whether there is consensus in the results. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the Montara well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling.

  16. Open Innovation and Business Model: A Brazilian Company Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elzo Alves Aranha

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Open Innovation is increasingly being introduced in international and national organizations for the creation of value. Open innovation is a practical tool, requiring new strategies and decisions from managers for the exploitation of innovative activities. The basic question that this study seeks to answer is linked to the practice of open innovation in connection with the open business model geared towards the creation of value in a Brazilian company. This paper aims to present a case study that illustrates how open innovation offers resources to change the open business model in order to create value for the Brazilian company. The case study method of a company in the sector of pharma-chemical products was used. The results indicate that internal sources of knowledge, external sources of knowledge and accentuate working partnerships were adopted by company as strategies to offer resources to change the open business model in order to create value.

  17. Teaching Mathematical Modelling for Earth Sciences via Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xin-She

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical modelling is becoming crucially important for earth sciences because the modelling of complex systems such as geological, geophysical and environmental processes requires mathematical analysis, numerical methods and computer programming. However, a substantial fraction of earth science undergraduates and graduates may not have sufficient skills in mathematical modelling, which is due to either limited mathematical training or lack of appropriate mathematical textbooks for self-study. In this paper, we described a detailed case-study-based approach for teaching mathematical modelling. We illustrate how essential mathematical skills can be developed for students with limited training in secondary mathematics so that they are confident in dealing with real-world mathematical modelling at university level. We have chosen various topics such as Airy isostasy, greenhouse effect, sedimentation and Stokes' flow,free-air and Bouguer gravity, Brownian motion, rain-drop dynamics, impact cratering, heat conduction and cooling of the lithosphere as case studies; and we use these step-by-step case studies to teach exponentials, logarithms, spherical geometry, basic calculus, complex numbers, Fourier transforms, ordinary differential equations, vectors and matrix algebra, partial differential equations, geostatistics and basic numeric methods. Implications for teaching university mathematics for earth scientists for tomorrow's classroom will also be discussed. Refereces 1) D. L. Turcotte and G. Schubert, Geodynamics, 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, (2002). 2) X. S. Yang, Introductory Mathematics for Earth Scientists, Dunedin Academic Press, (2009).

  18. Multisite Case Study of Florida's Millennium High School Reform Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol A. Mullen

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available This study should have immediate utility for the United States and beyond its borders. School-to-work approaches to comprehensive reform are increasingly expected of schools while legislative funding for this purpose gets pulled back. This multisite case study launches the first analysis of the New Millennium High School (NMHS model in Florida. This improvement program relies upon exemplary leadership for preparing students for postsecondary education

  19. Space engineering modeling and optimization with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pintér, János

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a selection of advanced case studies that cover a substantial range of issues and real-world challenges and applications in space engineering. Vital mathematical modeling, optimization methodologies and numerical solution aspects of each application case study are presented in detail, with discussions of a range of advanced model development and solution techniques and tools. Space engineering challenges are discussed in the following contexts: •Advanced Space Vehicle Design •Computation of Optimal Low Thrust Transfers •Indirect Optimization of Spacecraft Trajectories •Resource-Constrained Scheduling, •Packing Problems in Space •Design of Complex Interplanetary Trajectories •Satellite Constellation Image Acquisition •Re-entry Test Vehicle Configuration Selection •Collision Risk Assessment on Perturbed Orbits •Optimal Robust Design of Hybrid Rocket Engines •Nonlinear Regression Analysis in Space Engineering< •Regression-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Robust Design ...

  20. Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williford, R.E.

    2006-01-01

    When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

  1. Performance Implications of Business Model Change: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Poláková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with changes in performance level introduced by the change of business model. The selected case is a small family business undergoing through substantial changes in reflection of structural changes of its markets. The authors used the concept of business model to describe value creation processes within the selected family business and by contrasting the differences between value creation processes before and after the change introduced they prove the role of business model as the performance differentiator. This is illustrated with the use of business model canvas constructed on the basis interviews, observations and document analysis. The two business model canvases allow for explanation of cause-and-effect relationships within the business leading to change in performance. The change in the performance is assessed by financial analysis of the business conducted over the period of 2006–2012 demonstrates changes in performance (comparing development of ROA, ROE and ROS having their lowest levels before the change of business model was introduced, growing after the introduction of the change, as well as the activity indicators with similar developments of the family business. The described case study contributes to the concept of business modeling with the arguments supporting its value as strategic tool facilitating decisions related to value creation within the business.

  2. Molecular modeling of protein materials: case study of elastin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarakanova, Anna; Buehler, Markus J

    2013-01-01

    Molecular modeling of protein materials is a quickly growing area of research that has produced numerous contributions in fields ranging from structural engineering to medicine and biology. We review here the history and methods commonly employed in molecular modeling of protein materials, emphasizing the advantages for using modeling as a complement to experimental work. We then consider a case study of the protein elastin, a critically important ‘mechanical protein’ to exemplify the approach in an area where molecular modeling has made a significant impact. We outline the progression of computational modeling studies that have considerably enhanced our understanding of this important protein which endows elasticity and recoil to the tissues it is found in, including the skin, lungs, arteries and the heart. A vast collection of literature has been directed at studying the structure and function of this protein for over half a century, the first molecular dynamics study of elastin being reported in the 1980s. We review the pivotal computational works that have considerably enhanced our fundamental understanding of elastin's atomistic structure and its extraordinary qualities—focusing on two in particular: elastin's superb elasticity and the inverse temperature transition—the remarkable ability of elastin to take on a more structured conformation at higher temperatures, suggesting its effectiveness as a biomolecular switch. Our hope is to showcase these methods as both complementary and enriching to experimental approaches that have thus far dominated the study of most protein-based materials. (topical review)

  3. Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deutsch, Jared L., E-mail: jdeutsch@ualberta.ca [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Palmer, Kevin [Teck Resources Limited (Canada); Deutsch, Clayton V.; Szymanski, Jozef [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Etsell, Thomas H. [University of Alberta, Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.

  4. Capability maturity models in engineering companies: case study analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titov Sergei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of the current economic downturn engineering companies in Russia and worldwide are searching for new approaches and frameworks to improve their strategic position, increase the efficiency of the internal business processes and enhance the quality of the final products. Capability maturity models are well-known tools used by many foreign engineering companies to assess the productivity of the processes, to elaborate the program of business process improvement and to prioritize the efforts to optimize the whole company performance. The impact of capability maturity model implementation on cost and time are documented and analyzed in the existing research. However, the potential of maturity models as tools of quality management is less known. The article attempts to analyze the impact of CMM implementation on the quality issues. The research is based on a case study methodology and investigates the real life situation in a Russian engineering company.

  5. Online modelling of water distribution systems: a UK case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Machell

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic simulation models of water distribution networks are routinely used for operational investigations and network design purposes. However, their full potential is often never realised because, in the majority of cases, they have been calibrated with data collected manually from the field during a single historic time period and, as such, reflect the network operational conditions that were prevalent at that time, and they are then applied as part of a reactive, desktop investigation. In order to use a hydraulic model to assist proactive distribution network management its element asset information must be up to date and it should be able to access current network information to drive simulations. Historically this advance has been restricted by the high cost of collecting and transferring the necessary field measurements. However, recent innovation and cost reductions associated with data transfer is resulting in collection of data from increasing numbers of sensors in water supply systems, and automatic transfer of the data to point of use. This means engineers potentially have access to a constant stream of current network data that enables a new era of "on-line" modelling that can be used to continually assess standards of service compliance for pressure and reduce the impact of network events, such as mains bursts, on customers. A case study is presented here that shows how an online modelling system can give timely warning of changes from normal network operation, providing capacity to minimise customer impact.

  6. Application of Learning Curves for Didactic Model Evaluation: Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Mödritscher

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The success of (online courses depends, among other factors, on the underlying didactical models which have always been evaluated with qualitative and quantitative research methods. Several new evaluation techniques have been developed and established in the last years. One of them is ‘learning curves’, which aim at measuring error rates of users when they interact with adaptive educational systems, thereby enabling the underlying models to be evaluated and improved. In this paper, we report how we have applied this new method to two case studies to show that learning curves are useful to evaluate didactical models and their implementation in educational platforms. Results show that the error rates follow a power law distribution with each additional attempt if the didactical model of an instructional unit is valid. Furthermore, the initial error rate, the slope of the curve and the goodness of fit of the curve are valid indicators for the difficulty level of a course and the quality of its didactical model. As a conclusion, the idea of applying learning curves for evaluating didactical model on the basis of usage data is considered to be valuable for supporting teachers and learning content providers in improving their online courses.

  7. Hydropower recovery in water supply systems: Models and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilanova, Mateus Ricardo Nogueira; Balestieri, José Antônio Perrella

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We present hydropower recovery models for water supply systems. • Hydropower recovery potential in water supply systems is highly variable. • The case studied could make the supply systems self-sufficient in terms of energy. • Hydropower recovery can reduce GHGs emissions and generate carbon credits. - Abstract: The energy efficiency of water supply systems can be increased through the recovery of hydraulic energy implicit to the volumes of water transported in various stages of the supply process, which can be converted into electricity through hydroelectric recovery systems. Such a process allows the use of a clean energy source that is usually neglected in water supplies, reducing its dependence on energy from the local network and the system’s operation costs. This article evaluates the possibilities and benefits of the use of water supply facilities, structures and equipment for hydraulic energy recovery, addressing several applicable hydroelectric models. A real case study was developed in Brazil to illustrate the technical, economic and environmental aspects of hydropower recovery in water supply systems

  8. Impacts modeling using the SPH particulate method. Case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debord, R.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this study is the modeling of the impact of melted metal on the reactor vessel head in the case of a core-meltdown accident. Modeling using the classical finite-element method alone is not sufficient but requires a coupling with particulate methods in order to take into account the behaviour of the corium. After a general introduction about particulate methods, the Nabor and SPH (smoothed particle hydrodynamics) methods are described. Then, the theoretical and numerical reliability of the SPH method is determined using simple cases. In particular, the number of neighbours significantly influences the preciseness of calculations. Also, the mesh of the structure must be adapted to the mesh of the fluid in order to reduce the edge effects. Finally, this study has shown that the values of artificial velocity coefficients used in the simulation of the BERDA test performed by the FZK Karlsruhe (Germany) are not correct. The domain of use of these coefficients was precised during a low speed impact. (J.S.)

  9. Forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever cases using ARIMA model: a case study in Asahan district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, Fazidah A.; Makmur, Tri; Saprin, S.

    2018-01-01

    Time series analysis had been increasingly used to forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever in many studies. Since no vaccine exist and poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is crucial. This study was conducted to determine trend and forecasting the occurrence of DHF in Asahan district, North Sumatera Province. Monthly reported dengue cases for the years 2012-2016 were obtained from the district health offices. A time series analysis was conducted by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast the occurrence of DHF. The results demonstrated that the reported DHF cases showed a seasonal variation. The SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the best model and adequate for the data. The SARIMA model for DHF is necessary and could applied to predict the incidence of DHF in Asahan district and assist with design public health maesures to prevent and control the diseases.

  10. Mathematical and computational modeling and simulation fundamentals and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Moeller, Dietmar P F

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation - a highly multi-disciplinary field with ubiquitous applications in science and engineering - is one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century. This book introduces to the use of Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation in order to develop an understanding of the solution characteristics of a broad class of real-world problems. The relevant basic and advanced methodologies are explained in detail, with special emphasis on ill-defined problems. Some 15 simulation systems are presented on the language and the logical level. Moreover, the reader can accumulate experience by studying a wide variety of case studies. The latter are briefly described within the book but their full versions as well as some simulation software demos are available on the Web. The book can be used for University courses of different level as well as for self-study. Advanced sections are marked and can be skipped in a first reading or in undergraduate courses...

  11. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

    2015-01-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

  12. HSPF Modeling for Compliance and Enforcement: An Urban Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshalonis, D.

    2017-12-01

    Stormwater runoff is one of the most significant challenges to water quality facing surface waters globally. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates stormwater flows through its National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) program permits. When egregious violations occur, EPA may develop its case and prove those violations through the legal dispute process. However, evidence in stormwater-related cases is ephemeral, difficult to collect due to unpredictable weather dynamics, and there are usually no witnesses. The work presented here illustrates an approach EPA takes for certain wet weather cases: introduce results from hydrologic and hydraulic models as evidence to meet legal burden of proof standards. The challenges and opportunities of using models in stormwater discharge modeling are highlighted.

  13. Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Simon; Wardlaw, Jessica; Crouch, Susan; Carolan, Michelle

    2011-09-01

    Hospitals need to understand patient flows in an increasingly competitive health economy. New initiatives like Patient Choice and the Darzi Review further increase this demand. Essential to understanding patient flows are demographic and geographic profiles of health care service providers, known as 'catchment areas' and 'catchment populations'. This information helps Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to review how their populations are accessing services, measure inequalities and commission services; likewise it assists Secondary Care Providers (SCPs) to measure and assess potential gains in market share, redesign services, evaluate admission thresholds and plan financial budgets. Unlike PCTs, SCPs do not operate within fixed geographic boundaries. Traditionally, SCPs have used administrative boundaries or arbitrary drive times to model catchment areas. Neither approach satisfactorily represents current patient flows. Furthermore, these techniques are time-consuming and can be challenging for healthcare managers to exploit. This paper presents three different approaches to define catchment areas, each more detailed than the previous method. The first approach 'First Past the Post' defines catchment areas by allocating a dominant SCP to each Census Output Area (OA). The SCP with the highest proportion of activity within each OA is considered the dominant SCP. The second approach 'Proportional Flow' allocates activity proportionally to each OA. This approach allows for cross-boundary flows to be captured in a catchment area. The third and final approach uses a gravity model to define a catchment area, which incorporates drive or travel time into the analysis. Comparing approaches helps healthcare providers to understand whether using more traditional and simplistic approaches to define catchment areas and populations achieves the same or similar results as complex mathematical modelling. This paper has demonstrated, using a case study of Manchester, that when estimating

  14. Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Luiz Zandoval Bonazzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the past, currently, thinking about innovation refers to a reflection of value cocreation through strategic alliances, customer approach and adoption of different business models. Thus, this study analyzed and described the innovation process of company DSM, connecting it to concepts of organizational development strategies and the theory of business model. This is a basic interpretive qualitative research, developed by means of a single case study conducted through interviews and documentary analysis. This study enabled us to categorize the company business model as an open, unbundled and innovative model, which makes innovation a dependent variable of this internal configuration of value creation and value capture. As a theoretical contribution, we highlight the convergence and complementarity of the “Business Model Canvas” tool and “Innovation Funnel,” used here, to analyze the empirical case.

  15. Mathematical modeling of synthetic unit hydrograph case study: Citarum watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islahuddin, Muhammad; Sukrainingtyas, Adiska L. A.; Kusuma, M. Syahril B.; Soewono, Edy

    2015-09-01

    Deriving unit hydrograph is very important in analyzing watershed's hydrologic response of a rainfall event. In most cases, hourly measures of stream flow data needed in deriving unit hydrograph are not always available. Hence, one needs to develop methods for deriving unit hydrograph for ungagged watershed. Methods that have evolved are based on theoretical or empirical formulas relating hydrograph peak discharge and timing to watershed characteristics. These are usually referred to Synthetic Unit Hydrograph. In this paper, a gamma probability density function and its variant are used as mathematical approximations of a unit hydrograph for Citarum Watershed. The model is adjusted with real field condition by translation and scaling. Optimal parameters are determined by using Particle Swarm Optimization method with weighted objective function. With these models, a synthetic unit hydrograph can be developed and hydrologic parameters can be well predicted.

  16. Modelling and Analysis of Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Zhu, Huibiao; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2012-01-01

    that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy......Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... consumption. We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  17. Quantitative modelling and analysis of a Chinese smart grid: a stochastic model checking case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology with the physical elements of a system, mainly for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... that require novel methods and applications. One of the important issues in this context is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese smart grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy...... consumption.We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  18. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  19. Geochemical modeling of uranium mill tailings: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S.R.; Felmy, A.R.; Serne, R.J.; Gee, G.W.

    1983-08-01

    Liner failure was not found to be a problem when various acidic tailings solutions leached through liner materials for periods up to 3 y. On the contrary, materials that contained over 30% clay showed a decrease in permeability with time in the laboratory columns. The decreases in permeability noted above are attributed to pore plugging resulting from the precipitation of minerals and solids. This precipitation takes place due to the increase in pH of the tailings solution brought about by the buffering capacity of the soil. Geochemical modeling predicts, and x-ray characterization confirms, that precipitation of solids from solution is occurring in the acidic tailings solution/liner interactions studied. X-ray diffraction identified gypsum and alunite group minerals, such as jarosite, as having precipitated after acidic tailings solutions reacted with clay liners. The geochemical modeling and experimental work described above were used to construct an equilibrium conceptual model consisting of minerals and solid phases. This model was developed to represent a soil column. A computer program was used as a tool to solve the system of mathematical equations imposed by the conceptual chemical model. The combined conceptual model and computer program were used to predict aqueous phase compositions of effluent solutions from permeability cells packed with geologic materials and percolated with uranium mill tailings solutions. An initial conclusion drawn from these studies is that the laboratory experiments and geochemical modeling predictions were capable of simulating field observations. The same mineralogical changes and contaminant reductions observed in the laboratory studies were found at a drained evaporation pond (Lucky Mc in Wyoming) with a 10-year history of acid attack. 24 references, 5 figures 5 tables

  20. Ryanair and the Danish Model (Case study contribution to textbook)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Decker, Arnim

    2016-01-01

    was a sharp increase of mobility of labor and capital, leading to increased levels of economic activity, and improving social standards. Yet, economic integration can also result in conflict when established parties feel that their interests are threatened. This case study examines a disagreement......The European Union, love it or loathe it, was designed to bring economic and social benefits across Europe. The project aimed to break down the barriers that hinder the free movement of goods, capital, services and labour thereby creating peace and prosperity for nations and regions. The result...

  1. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  2. Paradigms of knowledge management with systems modelling case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pandey, Krishna Nath

    2016-01-01

    This book has been written by studying the knowledge management implementation at POWERGRID India, one of the largest power distribution companies in the world. The patterns which have led to models, both hypothesized and data-enabled, have been provided. The book suggests ways and means to follow for knowledge management implementation, especially for organizations with multiple business verticals to follow. The book underlines that knowledge is both an entity and organizational asset which can be managed. A holistic view of knowledge management implementation has been provided. It also emphasizes the phenomenological importance of human resource parameters as compared to that of technological parameters. Various hypotheses have been tested to validate the significant models hypothesized. This work will prove useful to corporations, researchers, and independent professionals working to study or implement knowledge management paradigms.

  3. How to create a business model: Taxiwoman case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Macías Acosta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available El proyecto Taxiwoman es un caso exitoso de diseño de modelos de negocios mediante la aplicación de la metodología Canvas. Esta metodología permite estructurar adecuadamente todos los elementos de un proyecto ya que se presta apropiado para abarcar los aspectos claves de un negocio. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar la aplicación de la metodología Canvas a través del estudio del caso Taxiwoman. The Taxiwoman Project is a successful example of a business project design using the Canvas methodology. This methodology allows for the appropriate organization of projects in that it encompasses all of the fundamental business elements. This article’s objective is to present a successful use of Canvas methodology through the Taxiwoman case study.

  4. A CASE STUDY ON POINT PROCESS MODELLING IN DISEASE MAPPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Beneš

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis (TBE, and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common area level approaches we base the analysis on a Bayesian approach for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A particular problem which is thoroughly discussed is to determine a model for the background population density. The risk map shows a clear dependency with the population intensity models and the basic model which is adopted for the population intensity determines what covariates influence the risk of TBE. Model validation is based on the posterior predictive distribution of various summary statistics.

  5. Information System Model as a Mobbing Prevention: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersin Karaman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to detect mobbing issues in Atatürk University, Economics and Administrative Science Facultyand provide an information system model to prevent mobbing and reduce the risk. The study consists of two parts;i detect mobbing situation via questionnaire and ii design an information system based on the findings of the first part. The questionnaire was applied to research assistants in the faculty. Five factors were analyzed and it is concluded that research assistants have not been exposed to mobbing except the fact that they have mobbing perception about task assignment process. Results show that task operational difficulty, task time and task period are the common mobbing issues.  In order to develop an information system to cope with these issues,   assignment of exam proctor process is addressed. Exam time, instructor location, classroom location and exam duration are the considered as decision variables to developed linear programming (LP model. Coefficients of these variables and constraints about the LP model are specified in accordance with the findings. It is recommended that research assistants entrusting process should be conducted by using this method to prevent and reduce the risk of mobbing perception in the organization.

  6. Freight Calculation Model: A Case Study of Coal Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunianto, I. T.; Lazuardi, S. D.; Hadi, F.

    2018-03-01

    Coal has been known as one of energy alternatives that has been used as energy source for several power plants in Indonesia. During its transportation from coal sites to power plant locations is required the eligible shipping line services that are able to provide the best freight rate. Therefore, this study aims to obtain the standardized formulations for determining the ocean freight especially for coal distribution based on the theoretical concept. The freight calculation model considers three alternative transport modes commonly used in coal distribution: tug-barge, vessel and self-propelled barge. The result shows there are two cost components very dominant in determining the value of freight with the proportion reaching 90% or even more, namely: time charter hire and fuel cost. Moreover, there are three main factors that have significant impacts on the freight calculation, which are waiting time at ports, time charter rate and fuel oil price.

  7. Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

    2011-01-01

    Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

  8. Case Study: Modelling Telecommunication Systems using Concurrent ML

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Torben

    1998-01-01

    How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML.......How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML....

  9. Value Chain Model for Steel Manufacturing Sector: A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    S G Acharyulu; K Venkata Subbaiah; K Narayana Rao

    2018-01-01

    Michael E Porter developed a value chain model for manufacturing sector with five primary activities and four supporting activities. The value chain model developed by Porter is extended to a steel manufacturing sector due to expansions of steel plants has become a continual process for their growth and survival. In this paper a value chain model for steel manufacturing sector is developed considering five primary activities and six support activities.

  10. Model-based design languages: A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Cibrario Bertolotti, Ivan; Hu, Tingting; Navet, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Fast-paced innovation in the embedded systems domain puts an ever increasing pressure on effective software development methods, leading to the growing popularity of Model-Based Design (MBD). In this context, a proper choice of modeling languages and related tools - depending on design goals and problem qualities - is crucial to make the most of MBD benefits. In this paper, a comparison between two dissimilar approaches to modeling is carried out, with the goal of highlighting their relative ...

  11. Habitat modelling limitations - Puck Bay, Baltic Sea - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Marcin Węsławski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The Natura 2000 sites and the Coastal Landscape Park in a shallow marine bay in the southern Baltic have been studied in detail for the distribution of benthic macroorganisms, species assemblages and seabed habitats. The relatively small Inner Puck Bay (104.8 km2 is one of the most thoroughly investigated marine areas in the Baltic: research has been carried out there continuously for over 50 years. Six physical parameters regarded as critically important for the marine benthos (depth, minimal temperature, maximum salinity, light, wave intensity and sediment type were summarized on a GIS map showing unified patches of seabed and the near-bottom water conditions. The occurrence of uniform seabed forms is weakly correlated with the distributions of individual species or multi-species assemblages. This is partly explained by the characteristics of the local macrofauna, which is dominated by highly tolerant, eurytopic species with opportunistic strategies. The history and timing of the assemblage formation also explains this weak correlation. The distribution of assemblages formed by long-living, structural species (Zostera marina and other higher plants shows the history of recovery following earlier disturbances. In the study area, these communities are still in the stage of recovery and recolonization, and their present distribution does not as yet match the distribution of the physical environmental conditions favourable to them. Our results show up the limitations of distribution modelling in coastal waters, where the history of anthropogenic disturbances can distort the picture of the present-day environmental control of biota distributions.

  12. A case study on point process modelling in disease mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Benes, Viktor

    2005-01-01

    of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common areal level approaches we base the analysis on a Bayesian approach for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo...... methods. A particular problem which is thoroughly discussed is to determine a model for the background population density. The risk map shows a clear dependency with the population intensity models and the basic model which is adopted for the population intensity determines what covariates influence...... the risk of TBE. Model validation is based on the posterior predictive distribution of various summary statistics....

  13. Resource Allocation Models and Accountability: A Jamaican Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Powell, Philip

    2008-01-01

    Higher education institutions (HEIs) may be funded privately, by the state or by a mixture of the two. Nevertheless, any state financing of HE necessitates a mechanism to determine the level of support and the channels through which it is to be directed; that is, a resource allocation model. Public funding, through resource allocation models,…

  14. The harmony model - A case study on new contractors approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemakers, G.; Favie, R.; Eekelen, van A.L.M.; Willemsen, J.G.L.; Maas, G.J.; Milford, R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the added value of the more integrated project organisation. After explaining the differences between the traditional model and the integrated process, the characteristics of the specific industrial clients are elaborated on. The needs of these clients are related to both models

  15. Power electronic converters modeling and control with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Bacha, Seddik; Bratcu, Antoneta Iuliana

    2014-01-01

    Modern power electronic converters are involved in a very broad spectrum of applications: switched-mode power supplies, electrical-machine-motion-control, active power filters, distributed power generation, flexible AC transmission systems, renewable energy conversion systems and vehicular technology, among them. Power Electronics Converters Modeling and Control teaches the reader how to analyze and model the behavior of converters and so to improve their design and control. Dealing with a set of confirmed algorithms specifically developed for use with power converters, this text is in two parts: models and control methods. The first is a detailed exposition of the most usual power converter models: ·        switched and averaged models; ·        small/large-signal models; and ·        time/frequency models. The second focuses on three groups of control methods: ·        linear control approaches normally associated with power converters; ·        resonant controllers b...

  16. Modelling the South African fruit export infrastructure: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FG Ortmann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available A description is provided of work performed as part of the fruit logistics infrastructure project commissioned by the South African Deciduous Fruit Producers’ Trust and coordinated by the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, as described in [Van Dyk FE & Maspero E, 2004, An analysis of the South African fruit logistics infrastructure, ORiON, 20(1, pp. 55–72]. After a brief introduction to the problem, two models (a single-commodity graph theoretic model and a multi-commodity mathematical programming model are derived for determining the maximal weekly flow or throughput of fresh fruit through the South African national export infrastructure. These models are solved for two extreme seasonal export scenarios and the solutions show that no export infrastructure expansion is required in the near future - observed bottlenecks are not fundamental to the infrastructure and its capacities, but are rather due to sub-optimal management and utilisation of the existing infrastructure.

  17. Bootstrapping pronunciation models: a South African case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davel, M

    2006-02-27

    Full Text Available Bootstrapping techniques can accelerate the development of language technology for new languages. The authors define a framework for the analysis of a general bootstrapping process whereby a model is improved through a controlled series...

  18. Case Study: Organotypic human in vitro models of embryonic ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morphogenetic fusion of tissues is a common event in embryonic development and disruption of fusion is associated with birth defects of the eye, heart, neural tube, phallus, palate, and other organ systems. Embryonic tissue fusion requires precise regulation of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions that drive proliferation, differentiation, and morphogenesis. Chemical low-dose exposures can disrupt morphogenesis across space and time by interfering with key embryonic fusion events. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task uses computer and in vitro models to elucidate consequences of developmental exposures. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task integrates multiple approaches to model responses to chemicals that leaad to birth defects, including integrative mining on ToxCast DB, ToxRefDB, and chemical structures, advanced computer agent-based models, and human cell-based cultures that model disruption of cellular and molecular behaviors including mechanisms predicted from integrative data mining and agent-based models. The purpose of the poster is to indicate progress on the CSS 17.02 Virtual Tissue Models Morphogenesis Task 1 products for the Board of Scientific Counselors meeting on Nov 16-17.

  19. Case management: a randomized controlled study comparing a neighborhood team and a centralized individual model.

    OpenAIRE

    Eggert, G M; Zimmer, J G; Hall, W J; Friedman, B

    1991-01-01

    This randomized controlled study compared two types of case management for skilled nursing level patients living at home: the centralized individual model and the neighborhood team model. The team model differed from the individual model in that team case managers performed client assessments, care planning, some direct services, and reassessments; they also had much smaller caseloads and were assigned a specific catchment area. While patients in both groups incurred very high estimated healt...

  20. Facilitating Data Driven Business Model Innovation - A Case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Torben Cæsar Bisgaard; Andersen, Troels Christian; Aagaard, Annabeth

    2016-01-01

    . The businesses interdisciplinary capabilities come into play in the BMI process, where knowledge from the facilitation strategy and knowledge from phases of the BMI process needs to be present to create new knowledge, hence new BMs and innovations. Depending on the environment and shareholders, this also exposes......This paper aims to understand the barriers that businesses meet in understanding their current business models (BM) and in their attempt at innovating new data driven business models (DDBM) using data. The interdisciplinary challenge of knowledge exchange occurring outside and/or inside businesses......, that gathers knowledge is of great importance. The SMEs have little, if no experience, within data handling, data analytics, and working with structured Business Model Innovation (BMI), that relates to both new and conventional products, processes and services. This new frontier of data and BMI will have...

  1. Case studies in Gaussian process modelling of computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, Marc C.; Anderson, Clive W.; Conti, Stefano; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we present a number of recent applications in which an emulator of a computer code is created using a Gaussian process model. Tools are then applied to the emulator to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is used both as an aid to model improvement and as a guide to how much the output uncertainty might be reduced by learning about specific inputs. Uncertainty analysis allows us to reflect output uncertainty due to unknown input parameters, when the finished code is used for prediction. The computer codes themselves are currently being developed within the UK Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics

  2. The Box Model and the Acoustic Sounder, a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Otto; Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1979-01-01

    Concentrations of SO2 in a large city during a subsidence situation are predicted as a function of time by means of a simple box model and the predictions are compared to actual SO2 concentration measurements. The agreement between model results and measurements is found to be excellent. The mode...... uses the height of the mixing layer as measured by means of an acoustic sounder. It is demonstrated that this height is a dominant factor in determining the variation of the SO2 concentration...

  3. A case study to estimate costs using Neural Networks and regression based models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Bhuiyan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Bombardier Aerospace’s high performance aircrafts and services set the utmost standard for the Aerospace industry. A case study in collaboration with Bombardier Aerospace is conducted in order to estimate the target cost of a landing gear. More precisely, the study uses both parametric model and neural network models to estimate the cost of main landing gears, a major aircraft commodity. A comparative analysis between the parametric based model and those upon neural networks model will be considered in order to determine the most accurate method to predict the cost of a main landing gear. Several trials are presented for the design and use of the neural network model. The analysis for the case under study shows the flexibility in the design of the neural network model. Furthermore, the performance of the neural network model is deemed superior to the parametric models for this case study.

  4. The mathematical models of solution mining and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, R.H.; Waskovsky, J.; Wang Xiwen; Wang Haifeng

    1991-01-01

    The mathematical model of parameters which describe solution mining and the principle of ore leaching are presented theoretically and thoroughly with the emphasis on in-situ leaching with a biolixiviant, furthermore, the example of bioleach mining, or biomining, in an abandoned underground copper mine is discussed

  5. Teaching the Interactionist Model of Ethics: Two Brief Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Edward C.

    2009-01-01

    This article draws on the interactionist model of ethics as a framework to help students answer two key questions they will confront in their future careers: (a) How can I, as a professional manager, deter clearly unethical behavior among my subordinates? and (b) How can I avoid engaging in clearly unethical behavior myself? For each of these…

  6. A case study in data audit and modelling methodology. Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apelbaum, John [Apelbaum Consulting Group, 750 Blackburn Road, Melbourne VIC 3170 (Australia)

    2009-10-15

    The purpose of the paper is to outline a rigorous, spatially consistent and cost-effective transport planning tool that projects travel demand, energy and emissions for all modes associated with domestic and international transport. The planning tool (Aus{sub e}Tran) is a multi-modal, multi-fuel and multi-regional macroeconomic and demographic-based computational model of the Australian transport sector that overcomes some of the gaps associated with existing strategic level transport emission models. The paper also identifies a number of key data issues that need to be resolved prior to model development with particular reference to the Australian environment. The strategic model structure endogenously derives transport demand, energy and emissions by jurisdiction, vehicle type, emission type and transport service for both freight and passenger transport. Importantly, the analytical framework delineates the national transport task, energy consumed and emissions according to region, state/territory of origin and jurisdictional protocols, provides an audit mechanism for the evaluation of the methodological framework, integrates a mathematical protocol to derive time series FFC emission factors and allows for the impact of non-registered road vehicles on transport, fuel and emissions. (author)

  7. Models of practice organisation using dental therapists: English case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, N; Harris, R V

    2011-08-12

    A new dental remuneration system based on bands of activity has changed the reward system operating in dental practices and influenced practitioner behaviour in relation to the delegation of tasks to English dental therapists (DTs). Since dental practitioners operate as independent contractors they are free to innovate. A variety of models incorporating DTs in general practice teams exist, some of which may overcome the apparent delegation constraints embedded within this system of remuneration. To describe the way different practices are organised to take account of DTs in their teams and identify whether any of these models address delegation disincentives arising from the system of remuneration. A purposive sample of six dental practices was identified, comprising two small, two medium and two large dental practices, including a variety of models of practice organisation. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with principal dentists, associate dentists, DTs, practice managers and dental hygienists (35 participants in total). A thematic analysis was applied to interview transcripts. The six dental practices demonstrated six different models of practice organisation which could be grouped into 'practice payment' and 'dentist payment' models according to whether the salary costs of the DT were met by a central practice fund or from the income of individual dentists in the team. In both of the large practices only some of the dentists in the team referred work to the DT because of reimbursement issues. In two practices the system was perceived to be satisfactory to all parties, one of these being a single-handed practice with two DTs. Although the remuneration system contained some potential disincentives to DT delegation, some practices innovated in their organisations to overcome these issues.

  8. Integration through relatedness in the conversational model: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haliburn, Joan

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the principles of the conversational model in two therapies with a patient, at 16 years of age and again 20 years later. Described is the first therapy of L, which commenced in hospital and continued twice weekly after discharge. L was an acutely disturbed 16-year-old female admitted for 4 months to the psychiatry ward, a dynamically oriented milieu of a University teaching hospital where I was training. This is followed by a brief description of L's second therapy. Supervision was through audiotape of sessions. At the conclusion of the first therapy, L was functioning well. Five years later, she married and had a child. She was referred to me again after she attempted suicide following an acute stressful event which resulted in hospitalization. She is more aware and reflective at present but continues to be vulnerable. Attention to certain aspects of the psychotherapeutic relationship is important as demonstrated in the conversational model.

  9. Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa de Alencar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

  10. Implementing an error disclosure coaching model: A multicenter case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Andrew A; Brock, Douglas M; McCotter, Patricia I; Shannon, Sarah E; Gallagher, Thomas H

    2017-01-01

    National guidelines call for health care organizations to provide around-the-clock coaching for medical error disclosure. However, frontline clinicians may not always seek risk managers for coaching. As part of a demonstration project designed to improve patient safety and reduce malpractice liability, we trained multidisciplinary disclosure coaches at 8 health care organizations in Washington State. The training was highly rated by participants, although not all emerged confident in their coaching skill. This multisite intervention can serve as a model for other organizations looking to enhance existing disclosure capabilities. Success likely requires cultural change and repeated practice opportunities for coaches. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  11. Developing the DESCARTE Model: The Design of Case Study Research in Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolan, Clare M; Forbat, Liz; Smith, Annetta

    2016-04-01

    Case study is a long-established research tradition which predates the recent surge in mixed-methods research. Although a myriad of nuanced definitions of case study exist, seminal case study authors agree that the use of multiple data sources typify this research approach. The expansive case study literature demonstrates a lack of clarity and guidance in designing and reporting this approach to research. Informed by two reviews of the current health care literature, we posit that methodological description in case studies principally focuses on description of case study typology, which impedes the construction of methodologically clear and rigorous case studies. We draw from the case study and mixed-methods literature to develop the DESCARTE model as an innovative approach to the design, conduct, and reporting of case studies in health care. We examine how case study fits within the overall enterprise of qualitatively driven mixed-methods research, and the potential strengths of the model are considered. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Strategic Assessment Model and Its Application:a Case Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Xiu-wen; CAO Meng-xia; ZHU Ning; ZUO M1ng-j1an

    2001-01-01

    Accurate and effective assessment of strategic alternatives of an organization directly affects the decision-making and execution of its development strategy. In evaluation of strategic alternatives, relevant elements from both internal and external environments of an organization must be considered. In this paper we use strategic assessment model to evaluate strategic alternatives of an air-conditioning company. Strategic objectives and alternatives of the company are developed through analysis of the competitive environment,key competitors and internal conditions. The environment factors are classified into internal, task, and general opportunities and threats. Analytical hierarchy process, subjective probabilities, entropy concept,and utility theory are used to enhance decision-maker's ability in evaluating strategic alternatives. The evaluation results show that the most effective strategic alternative for the company is to reduce types of products, concentrate its effort on producing window-type and cupboard-type air-conditioners, enlarge the production scale, and pre-empt the market. The company has made great progress by implementing this alternative. We conclude that SAM is an appropriate tool for evaluating strategic alternatives.

  13. Participative business modelling to support strategic decision making in operations : a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, H.A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes a case study in which a consultancy method based on participative business modelling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive

  14. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  15. Assessment and Reduction of Model Parametric Uncertainties: A Case Study with A Distributed Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Y.; Liang, X. Z.; Duan, Q.; Xu, J.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the parameters of a hydrological model need to be quantified and reduced for it to be useful for operational hydrological forecasting and decision support. An uncertainty quantification framework is presented to facilitate practical assessment and reduction of model parametric uncertainties. A case study, using the distributed hydrological model CREST for daily streamflow simulation during the period 2008-2010 over ten watershed, was used to demonstrate the performance of this new framework. Model behaviors across watersheds were analyzed by a two-stage stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure, using LH-OAT method for screening out insensitive parameters, followed by MARS-based Sobol' sensitivity indices for quantifying each parameter's contribution to the response variance due to its first-order and higher-order effects. Pareto optimal sets of the influential parameters were then found by the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization procedure, using MARS model for approximating the parameter-response relationship and SCE-UA algorithm for searching the optimal parameter sets of the adaptively updated surrogate model. The final optimal parameter sets were validated against the daily streamflow simulation of the same watersheds during the period 2011-2012. The stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure efficiently reduced the number of parameters that need to be calibrated from twelve to seven, which helps to limit the dimensionality of calibration problem and serves to enhance the efficiency of parameter calibration. The adaptive MARS-based multi-objective calibration exercise provided satisfactory solutions to the reproduction of the observed streamflow for all watersheds. The final optimal solutions showed significant improvement when compared to the default solutions, with about 65-90% reduction in 1-NSE and 60-95% reduction in |RB|. The validation exercise indicated a large improvement in model performance with about 40

  16. Value shaping in networked business modeling : Case studies of sustainability-oriented innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oskam, I.F.; Bossink, Bart; de Man, Ard-Pieter

    2018-01-01

    A stream of literature is emerging where network development and business modeling intersect. Various authors emphasize that networks influence business models. This paper extends this stream of literature by studying two cases in which we analyze how business modeling and networking interact over

  17. The interaction between network ties and business modeling : Case studies of sustainability-oriented innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oskam, Inge; Bossink, Bart; de Man, Ard Pieter

    2018-01-01

    A stream of literature is emerging where network development and business modeling intersect. Various authors emphasize that networks influence business models. This paper extends this stream of literature by studying two cases in which we analyze how business modeling and networking interact over

  18. The Interaction between network ties and business modeling : case studies of sustainability-oriented innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oskam, Inge; Bossink, Bart; de Man, Ard-Pieter

    2018-01-01

    A stream of literature is emerging where network development and business modeling intersect. Various authors emphasize that networks influence business models. This paper extends this stream of literature by studying two cases in which we analyze how business modeling and networking interact over

  19. Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

    OpenAIRE

    Bede-Fazekas, Ákos

    2013-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) us...

  20. CASE STUDY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-06-02

    Jun 2, 2011 ... immunosuppression associated with HIV/AIDS puts them at a higher risk of developing oesophageal cancer. 47. CASE STUDY. A 49-year-old man was diagnosed as HIV infected, with a CD4 count of 60 cells/µl. He was started on an antiretroviral treatment regimen comprising zidovudine, lamivudine and ...

  1. Case management: a randomized controlled study comparing a neighborhood team and a centralized individual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, G M; Zimmer, J G; Hall, W J; Friedman, B

    1991-10-01

    This randomized controlled study compared two types of case management for skilled nursing level patients living at home: the centralized individual model and the neighborhood team model. The team model differed from the individual model in that team case managers performed client assessments, care planning, some direct services, and reassessments; they also had much smaller caseloads and were assigned a specific catchment area. While patients in both groups incurred very high estimated health services costs, the average annual cost during 1983-85 for team cases was 13.6 percent less than that of individual model cases. While the team cases were 18.3 percent less expensive among "old" patients (patients who entered the study from the existing ACCESS caseload), they were only 2.7 percent less costly among "new" cases. The lower costs were due to reductions in hospital days and home care. Team cases averaged 26 percent fewer hospital days per year and 17 percent fewer home health aide hours. Nursing home use was 48 percent higher for the team group than for the individual model group. Mortality was almost exactly the same for both groups during the first year (about 30 percent), but was lower for team patients during the second year (11 percent as compared to 16 percent). Probable mechanisms for the observed results are discussed.

  2. Transformation of UML models to CSP : a case study for graph transformation tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varró, D.; Asztalos, M.; Bisztray, D.; Boronat, A.; Dang, D.; Geiß, R.; Greenyer, J.; Van Gorp, P.M.E.; Kniemeyer, O.; Narayanan, A.; Rencis, E.; Weinell, E.; Schürr, A.; Nagl, M.; Zündorf, A.

    2008-01-01

    Graph transformation provides an intuitive mechanism for capturing model transformations. In the current paper, we investigate and compare various graph transformation tools using a compact practical model transformation case study carried out as part of the AGTIVE 2007 Tool Contest [22]. The aim of

  3. Pedagogy and Process: A Case Study of Writing in a Hybrid Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiner, Jason F.

    2017-01-01

    This qualitative case study explored the perceived experiences and outcomes of writing in a hybrid model of instruction in a large suburban high school. In particular, the impact of a hybrid model on the writing process and on future writing performance were examined. In addition, teacher expectation and teacher attitude and their impact upon…

  4. Studying the Behaviour of Model of Mirror Neuron System in Case of Autism

    OpenAIRE

    Anirban, Shikha; Hanif Ali, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    Several experiment done by the researchers conducted that autism is caused by the dysfunctional mirror neuron system and the dysfunctions of mirror neuron system is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. In the present work those experiments were studied as well as studying a model of mirror neuron system called MNS2 developed by a research group. This research examined the behavior of the model in case of autism and compared the result with those studies conducting dysfunctions of m...

  5. Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

    Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

  6. harmonic load modeling: a case study of 33 kv abuja steel mill feeder

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    techniques are adopted. This paper studied the harmonic orders of the 33 kV Abuja Steel Feeder modeled as a ... (ETAP) software package was deployed to perform Discrete Fast Transform (DFT) while the input ... and documented in research and development articles ... network with 33kV Abuja Steel feeder as case study.

  7. Casing study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roche, P.

    2000-12-01

    An unorthodox method of casing drilling used by Tesco Corporation at a gas well in Wyoming to drill deeper using casings as drillpipe is discussed. The process involves either rotating the casing as drill string or using a downhole mud motor to rotate the bit. In this instance, the surface hole and the production hole were casing-drilled to a record 8,312 feet by rotating the casing. The 8 1/2-inch surface hole was drilled with 7-inch casing to 1,200 feet using a Tesco underreamer and a polycrystalline pilot bit; drilling and cementing was completed in 12 1/2 hours. The 6 1/4-inch production hole was drilled with 4 1/2-inch casing and the bottomhole assembly was retrieved after 191 hours rotating. This case was the first in which the entire well was casing-drilled from surface to TD. Penetration rate compared favorably with conventional methods: 12 1/2 hours for casing-drilling to 18.9 hours for conventional drilling, despite the fact that the casing-drilling technology is still in its infancy. It is suggested that casing-drilling has the potential to eliminate the need for the drillpipe entirely. If these expectations were to be realised, casing-drilling could be one of the most radical drilling changes in the history of the oil and gas industry. 1 photo.

  8. The Value of SysML Modeling During System Operations: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutenhoffer, Chelsea; Tirona, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    System models are often touted as engineering tools that promote better understanding of systems, but these models are typically created during system design. The Ground Data System (GDS) team for the Dawn spacecraft took on a case study to see if benefits could be achieved by starting a model of a system already in operations. This paper focuses on the four steps the team undertook in modeling the Dawn GDS: defining a model structure, populating model elements, verifying that the model represented reality, and using the model to answer system-level questions and simplify day-to-day tasks. Throughout this paper the team outlines our thought processes and the system insights the model provided.

  9. Modelling in Action. Examining How Students Approach Modelling Real Life Situations. Three Case Studies. Model of the Movement of an Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Eugenia Marmolejo

    2015-01-01

    By means of three case studies, we will present two mathematical modelling activities that are suitable for students enrolled in senior high school and the first year of mathematics at university level. The activities have been designed to enrich the learning process and promote the formation of vital modelling skills. In case studies one and two,…

  10. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  11. The Early Start Denver Model: A Case Study of an Innovative Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vismara, Laurie A.; Rogers, Sally J.

    2008-01-01

    Intervention was implemented with an infant identified at 9 months of age with a behavioral profile consistent with autistic spectrum disorder. The intervention approach, the Early Start Denver model, consisted of a 12-week, 1.5-hr-per-week individualized parent-child education program. Results of this case study demonstrated that the parent…

  12. Modelling and Control of HIV/AIDS Propagation - A Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling and Control of HIV/AIDS Propagation - A Case Study of the Ashanti Region of Ghana. ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... in the Ashanti Region of Ghana for the period 1982 to 2001 with a view to assessing the level and impact of the pandemic as well as the effectiveness of the existing control measures.

  13. step by step process from logic model to case study method as an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Journal

    Logic models and case study approach to programme evaluation have proven ... in qualitative methodology. There is ... Note: IEHPs= internationally educated health professionals, ... interviews with the programme managers. .... programme assessed to ensure that the IEHPs are ready to face the certification ..... Comparison.

  14. Developing a Model and Applications for Probabilities of Student Success: A Case Study of Predictive Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Carol Elaine

    2014-01-01

    This case study relates to distance learning students on open access courses. It demonstrates the use of predictive analytics to generate a model of the probabilities of success and retention at different points, or milestones, in a student journey. A core set of explanatory variables has been established and their varying relative importance at…

  15. Performance estimation of networked business models : Case study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heikkilä, M.; Solaimani, H. (Sam); Kuivaniemi, L.; Suoranta, M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector

  16. Business models for horizontal collaboration : a practical case study with reusable crates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandi, Teresa

    2012-01-01

    This project is centered in the topic of horizontal collaboration. The first part focuses on finding business models for horizontal collaboration. The second part is a practical case study at Kuehne + Nagel. Horizontal collaboration consists of two or more independent companies that plan and execute

  17. Performance Estimation of Networked Business Models: Case Study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marikka Heikkilä

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector aiming to jointly provide a new service for business and private customers. The duration of the research study is 3 years. Findings: We propose that a balanced set of performance indicators can be defined by paying attention to all main components of the business model, enriched with of network collaboration. The results highlight the importance of measuring all main components of the business model and also the business network partners’ view on trust, contracts and fairness. Research implications: This article contributes to the business model literature by combining business modelling with performance evaluation. The article points out that it is essential to create metrics that can be applied to evaluate and improve the business model blueprints, but it is also important to measure business collaboration aspects. Practical implications: Companies have already adopted Business model canvas or similar business model tools to innovate new business models. We suggest that companies continue their business model innovation work by agreeing on a set of performance metrics, building on the business model components model enriched with measures of network collaboration. Originality/value: This article contributes to the business model literature and praxis by combining business modelling with performance evaluation.

  18. CASE STUDY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV infection has several oral manifestations, including oral candidiasis and oral hairy leucoplakia. Occasionally unusual presentations requiring rigorous investigations are seen, and in these cases the diagnosis sometimes remains a dilemma owing to limited investigation facilities.1-3 We present the case of a patient who.

  19. Experience in Modelling Nuclear Energy Systems with MESSAGE: Country Case Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2018-01-01

    Member States have recognized the increasing need to model future nuclear power scenarios in order to develop strategies for sustainable nuclear energy systems. The IAEA model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts (MESSAGE) code is a tool that supports energy analysis and planning in Member States. This publication documents the experience gained on modelling and scenario analysis of nuclear energy systems (NES) using the MESSAGE code through various case studies performed by the participating Member States on evaluation and planning for nuclear energy sustainability at the regional or national level. The publication also elaborates on experience gained in modelling of global nuclear energy systems with a focus on specific aspects of collaboration among technology holder and technology user countries and the introduction of innovative nuclear technologies. It presents country case studies covering a variety of nuclear energy systems based on a once-through fuel cycle and a closed fuel cycle for thermal reactors, fast reactors and advanced systems. The feedback from case studies proves the analytical capabilities of the MESSAGE model and highlight the path forward for further advancements in the MESSAGE code and NES modelling.

  20. Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    /24 degree, if in the end you only look at monthly runoff? In this study an attempt is made to link time and space scales in the VIC model, to study the added value of a higher spatial resolution-model for different time steps. In order to do this, four different VIC models were constructed for the Thur basin in North-Eastern Switzerland (1700 km²), a tributary of the Rhine: one lumped model, and three spatially distributed models with a resolution of respectively 1x1 km, 5x5 km, and 10x10 km. All models are run at an hourly time step and aggregated and calibrated for different time steps (hourly, daily, monthly, yearly) using a novel Hierarchical Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique (Vořechovský, 2014). For each time and space scale, several diagnostics like Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, all the quantiles of the discharge etc., are calculated in order to compare model performance over different time and space scales for extreme events like floods and droughts. Next to that, the effect of time and space scale on the parameter distribution can be studied. In the end we hope to find a link for optimal time and space scale combinations.

  1. A case study on business model innovations using Blockchain: focusing on financial institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JaeShup Oh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - Blockchain is a distributed ledger, in which the blocks containing transaction details are connected chronologically to form a series of chains, thus raising the possibility of improving the process and innovating business model for the financial institutions. The purpose of this paper is to study the actual cases of Blockchain applied in Korea in 2017, so that a vision of business model innovation of financial institutions can be drawn. Design/methodology/approach - The financial institutions in Korea are in the technology verification stage to introduce Blockchain technology. Since there is an insufficient amount of actual measurement data, case study method was adopted. The authors interviewed ICT officers of major banks in Korea. The purpose of the interview was to understand the relationship between Blockchain and business models of financial institutions, and the effects and challenges that Blockchain has on the business model of financial institutions. Findings - From the perspective of financial institutions, the emergence of Blockchain does not just have technical significance – emergence of highly efficient database system – but has the possibility that if the business model of existing financial intermediaries disappears or get reduced, the financial services relying on them can disappear altogether, or some of them can be replaced, and financial transaction patterns of consumers can be changed. As a case studies researched for this paper, it was discovered that the distributed characteristic of Blockchain cannot be applied when actually developing financial services.

  2. Ride-sharing business model for sustainability in developing country: Case Study Nebengers, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asirin, Asirin; Azhari, Danang

    2018-05-01

    The growth of population and urban economy increased the need for humans’ mobility to support their activities. On the other hand, online Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is growing rapidly and more affordable. Within few years, there is some sharing economy business formed by using online platform. This condition brings through the emergence of ride-sharing business model using an online platform which can be beneficial to sustainability. This research aims to explore one of ridesharing business models which use the online platform and its impact on sustainability. This research used the procedure of case study method with a single case study of Nebengers. This research explores the case study with the scope of this research is limited by using several conceptual frameworks, they are sharing economy business model, four elements of a business model for sustainability (BMfS), Social Construction of Technology (SCoT), sustainable mobility and agency theory. Nebengers is a sharing economy business using online platform that historically can be explained using Social Construction of Technology (SCoT) Theory. There are conflicts between nebengers entrepreneur and the city government. Nebengers disrupts traditional and formal public transportation services which are managed by the government. However, nebengers also contributes to achieve the city government goal in developing sustainable mobility. The future challenge is how to arrange ride-sharing collaborative governance business model for sustainability in the cities in Indonesia.

  3. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    OpenAIRE

    Ulla Santti; Tuomo Eskelinen; Mervi Rajahonka; Kaija Villman; Ari Happonen

    2017-01-01

    Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF) tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business...

  4. Challenges encountered when expanding activated sludge models: a case study based on N2O production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snip, Laura; Boiocchi, Riccardo; Flores Alsina, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    (WWTPs). As a consequence, these experiments might not be representative for full-scale performance, and unexpected behaviour may be observed when simulating WWTP models using the derived process equations. In this paper we want to highlight problems encountered using a simplified case study: a modified......: problems related to the overall mathematical model structure and problems related to the published set of parameter values. The paper describes the model implementation incompatibilities, the variability in parameter values and the difficulties of reaching similar conditions when simulating a full...

  5. Biomimetic agent based modelling using male Frog calling behaviour as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren V.; Demazeau, Yves; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    by individuals to generate their observed population behaviour. A number of existing agent-modelling frameworks are considered, but none have the ability to handle large numbers of time-dependent event-generating agents; hence the construction of a new tool, RANA. The calling behaviour of the Puerto Rican Tree...... Frog, E. coqui, is implemented as a case study for the presentation and discussion of the tool, and results from this model are presented. RANA, in its present stage of development, is shown to be able to handle the problem of modelling calling frogs, and several fruitful extensions are proposed...

  6. The rising impact of mathematical modelling in epidemiology: antibiotic resistance research as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    TEMIME, L.; HEJBLUM, G.; SETBON, M.; VALLERON, A. J.

    2008-01-01

    SUMMARY Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has gradually become part of public health decision-making in recent years. However, the developing status of modelling in epidemiology and its relationship with other relevant scientific approaches have never been assessed quantitatively. Herein, using antibiotic resistance as a case study, 60 published models were analysed. Their interactions with other scientific fields are reported and their citation impact evaluated, as well as temporal trends. The yearly number of antibiotic resistance modelling publications increased significantly between 1990 and 2006. This rise cannot be explained by the surge of interest in resistance phenomena alone. Moreover, modelling articles are, on average, among the most frequently cited third of articles from the journal in which they were published. The results of this analysis, which might be applicable to other emerging public health problems, demonstrate the growing interest in mathematical modelling approaches to evaluate antibiotic resistance. PMID:17767792

  7. case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elton

    particularly in patients who commence ART with low CD4 counts and established opportunistic infections. IRIS results from a pathological inflammatory response to pre-existing infective, host or other antigens, alive or dead, causing clinical deterioration in HIV-infected patients after initiating ART.1 A case definition for IRIS ...

  8. CASE STUDY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-09-01

    Sep 1, 2010 ... of the two diseases surgery can be successful, recovery can be similar to that .... lymphocytes predominated in 68% of cases, and that there was an .... using ferritin is the fact that it acts as an acute-phase reactant and will be ...

  9. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  10. A devolved model for public involvement in the field of mental health research: case study learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moule, Pam; Davies, Rosie

    2016-12-01

    Patient and public involvement in all aspects of research is espoused and there is a continued interest in understanding its wider impact. Existing investigations have identified both beneficial outcomes and remaining issues. This paper presents the impact of public involvement in one case study led by a mental health charity conducted as part of a larger research project. The case study used a devolved model of working, contracting with service user-led organizations to maximize the benefits of local knowledge on the implementation of personalized budgets, support recruitment and local user-led organizations. To understand the processes and impact of public involvement in a devolved model of working with user-led organizations. Multiple data collection methods were employed throughout 2012. These included interviews with the researchers (n = 10) and research partners (n = 5), observation of two case study meetings and the review of key case study documentation. Analysis was conducted in NVivo10 using a coding framework developed following a literature review. Five key themes emerged from the data; Devolved model, Nature of involvement, Enabling factors, Implementation challenges and Impact. While there were some challenges of implementing the devolved model it is clear that our findings add to the growing understanding of the positive benefits research partners can bring to complex research. A devolved model can support the involvement of user-led organizations in research if there is a clear understanding of the underpinning philosophy and support mechanisms are in place. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Modelling as a Tool to Support Risk Assessment: Three Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Mielke

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this contribution we present three case studies of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK modelling in regulatory risk assessment. (1 Age-dependent lower enzyme expression in the newborn leads to bisphenol A (BPA blood levels which are near the levels of the tolerated daily intake (TDI at the oral exposure as calculated by EFSA. (2 Dermal exposure of BPA by receipts, car park tickets, and so forth, contribute to the exposure towards BPA. However, at the present levels of dermal exposure there is no risk for the adult. (3 Dermal exposure towards coumarin via cosmetic products leads to external exposures of two-fold the TDI. PBTK modeling helped to identify liver peak concentration as the metric for liver toxicity. After dermal exposure of twice the TDI, the liver peak concentration was lower than that present after oral exposure with the TDI dose. In the presented cases, PBTK modeling was useful to reach scientifically sound regulatory decisions.

  12. Modeling of Residential Water Demand Using Random Effect Model,Case Study: Arak City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hossein Sajadifar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study tries to apply the “Partial Adjustment Model” and “Random Effect Model” techniques to the Stone-Greay’s linear expenditure system, in order to estimate the "Residential Seasonal Demand" for water in Arak city. Per capita water consumption of family residences is regressed on marginal price, per capita income, price of other goods, average temperature and average rainfall. Panel data approaches based on a sample of 152 observations from Arak city referred to 1993-2003. From the estimation of the Elasticity-price of the residential water demand, we want to know how a policy of responsive pricing can lead to more efficient household water consumption inArakcity. Results also indicated that summer price elasticity was twice the winter and price and income elasticity was less than 1 in all cases.

  13. SVM and ANFIS Models for precipitaton Modeling (Case Study: GonbadKavouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zabet Pishkhani

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In recent years, according to the intelligent models increased as new techniques and tools in hydrological processes such as precipitation forecasting. ANFIS model has good ability in train, construction and classification, and also has the advantage that allows the extraction of fuzzy rules from numerical information or knowledge. Another intelligent technique in recent years has been used in various areas is support vector machine (SVM. In this paper the ability of artificial intelligence methods including support vector machine (SVM and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS were analyzed in monthly precipitation prediction. Materials and Methods: The study area was the city of Gonbad in Golestan Province. The city has a temperate climate in the southern highlands and southern plains, mountains and temperate humid, semi-arid and semi-arid in the north of Gorganroud river. In total, the city's climate is temperate and humid. In the present study, monthly precipitation was modeled in Gonbad using ANFIS and SVM and two different database structures were designed. The first structure: input layer consisted of mean temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind speed at Gonbad station. The second structure: According to Pearson coefficient, the monthly precipitation data were used from four stations: Arazkoose, Bahalke, Tamar and Aqqala which had a higher correlation with Gonbad station precipitation. In this study precipitation data was used from 1995 to 2012. 80% data were used for model training and the remaining 20% of data for validation. SVM was developed from support vector machines in the 1990s by Vapnik. SVM has been widely recognized as a powerful tool to deal with function fitting problems. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS refers, in general, to an adaptive network which performs the function of a fuzzy inference system. The most commonly used fuzzy system in ANFIS architectures is the Sugeno model

  14. Sensitivity of inferred climate model skill to evaluation decisions: a case study using CMIP5 evapotranspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwalm, Christopher R; Huntinzger, Deborah N; Michalak, Anna M; Fisher, Joshua B; Kimball, John S; Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Ke; Zhang Yongqiang

    2013-01-01

    Confrontation of climate models with observationally-based reference datasets is widespread and integral to model development. These comparisons yield skill metrics quantifying the mismatch between simulated and reference values and also involve analyst choices, or meta-parameters, in structuring the analysis. Here, we systematically vary five such meta-parameters (reference dataset, spatial resolution, regridding approach, land mask, and time period) in evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) from eight CMIP5 models in a factorial design that yields 68 700 intercomparisons. The results show that while model–data comparisons can provide some feedback on overall model performance, model ranks are ambiguous and inferred model skill and rank are highly sensitive to the choice of meta-parameters for all models. This suggests that model skill and rank are best represented probabilistically rather than as scalar values. For this case study, the choice of reference dataset is found to have a dominant influence on inferred model skill, even larger than the choice of model itself. This is primarily due to large differences between reference datasets, indicating that further work in developing a community-accepted standard ET reference dataset is crucial in order to decrease ambiguity in model skill. (letter)

  15. Organising nursing practice into care models that catalyse quality: A clinical nurse leader case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Miriam; Spiva, LeeAnna; Su, Wei; Hites, Lisle

    2018-02-09

    To determine the power of a conceptual clinical nurse leader practice model to explain the care model's enactment and trajectory in real world settings. How nursing, organised into specific models of care, functions as an organisational strategy for quality is not well specified. Clinical nurse leader integrated care delivery is one emerging model with growing adoption. A recently validated clinical nurse leader practice model conceptualizes the care model's characteristics and hypothesizes their mechanisms of action. Pattern matching case study design and mixed methods were used to determine how the care model's constructs were operationalized in one regional United States health system that integrated clinical nurse leaders into their care delivery system in 2010. The findings confirmed the empirical presence of all clinical nurse leader practice model constructs and provided a rich description of how the health system operationalized the constructs in practice. The findings support the hypothesized model pathway from Clinical Nurse Leader structuring to Clinical Nurse Leader practice and outcomes. The findings indicate analytic generalizability of the clinical nurse leader practice model. Nursing practice organised to focus on microsystem care processes can catalyse multidisciplinary engagement with, and consistent enactment of, quality practices. The model has great potential for transferability across diverse health systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Mathematical modeling in municipal solid waste management: case study of Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbarpour Shirazi, Mohsen; Samieifard, Reza; Abduli, Mohammad Ali; Omidvar, Babak

    2016-01-01

    Solid Waste Management (SWM) in metropolises with systematic methods and following environmental issues, is one of the most important subjects in the area of urban management. In this regard, it is regarded as a legal entity so that its activities are not overshadowed by other urban activities. In this paper, a linear mathematical programming model has been designed for integrated SWM. Using Lingo software and required data from Tehran, the proposed model has been applied for Tehran SWM system as a case study. To determine the optimal status of the available system for Tehran's Solid Waste Management System (SWMS), a novel linear programming model is applied. Tehran has 22 municipal regions with 11 transfer stations and 10 processing units. By running of the model, the transfer stations and processing units are decreased to 10 and 6 units, respectively. The proposed model is an alternative method for improvement the SWMS by decreasing the transfer stations and processing units.

  17. Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Hřebíček

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

  18. Expert System Models for Forecasting Forklifts Engagement in a Warehouse Loading Operation: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Mirčetić

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the problem of forklifts engagement in warehouse loading operations. Two expert system (ES models are created using several machine learning (ML models. Models try to mimic expert decisions while determining the forklifts engagement in the loading operation. Different ML models are evaluated and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and classification and regression trees (CART are chosen as the ones which have shown best results for the research purpose. As a case study, a central warehouse of a beverage company was used. In a beverage distribution chain, the proper engagement of forklifts in a loading operation is crucial for maintaining the defined customer service level. The created ES models represent a new approach for the rationalization of the forklifts usage, particularly for solving the problem of the forklifts engagement incargo loading. They are simple, easy to understand, reliable, and practically applicable tool for deciding on the engagement of the forklifts in a loading operation.

  19. Application of the Analog Method to Modelling Heat Waves: A Case Study with Power Transformers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-21

    UNCLASSIFIED Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory APPLICATION OF THE ANALOG METHOD TO MODELLING HEAT WAVES: A CASE STUDY WITH...18 2 Calibration and validation statistics with the use of five atmospheric vari- ables to construct analogue diagnostics for JJA of transformer T2...electrical grid as a series of nodes (transformers) and edges (transmission lines) so that basic mathematical anal- ysis can be performed. The mathematics

  20. Interpersonal success factors for strategy implementation: a case study using group model building

    OpenAIRE

    Rodney J Scott; Robert Y Cavana; Donald Cameron

    2015-01-01

    Strategy implementation has been identified as an area of system dynamics literature requiring greater attention. Most strategies fail to be implemented successfully, and processes for effectively implementing strategy are yet to be fully explained and explored. The reported interpersonal success factors for strategy implementation are reported outcomes for group model building, suggesting potential applicability. A case study using validated survey methods yielded promising results, and sugg...

  1. On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

  2. Case Study: Testing with Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2015-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses using case studies to test for knowledge or lessons learned.

  3. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  4. Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

    2017-10-01

    In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

  5. Project Photofly: New 3d Modeling Online Web Service (case Studies and Assessments)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abate, D.; Furini, G.; Migliori, S.; Pierattini, S.

    2011-09-01

    During summer 2010, Autodesk has released a still ongoing project called Project Photofly, freely downloadable from AutodeskLab web site until August 1 2011. Project Photofly based on computer-vision and photogrammetric principles, exploiting the power of cloud computing, is a web service able to convert collections of photographs into 3D models. Aim of our research was to evaluate the Project Photofly, through different case studies, for 3D modeling of cultural heritage monuments and objects, mostly to identify for which goals and objects it is suitable. The automatic approach will be mainly analyzed.

  6. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pclimate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was

  7. JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, Arturo

    2011-01-01

    The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

  8. Structuring research methods and data with the research object model: genomics workflows as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettne, Kristina M; Dharuri, Harish; Zhao, Jun; Wolstencroft, Katherine; Belhajjame, Khalid; Soiland-Reyes, Stian; Mina, Eleni; Thompson, Mark; Cruickshank, Don; Verdes-Montenegro, Lourdes; Garrido, Julian; de Roure, David; Corcho, Oscar; Klyne, Graham; van Schouwen, Reinout; 't Hoen, Peter A C; Bechhofer, Sean; Goble, Carole; Roos, Marco

    2014-01-01

    One of the main challenges for biomedical research lies in the computer-assisted integrative study of large and increasingly complex combinations of data in order to understand molecular mechanisms. The preservation of the materials and methods of such computational experiments with clear annotations is essential for understanding an experiment, and this is increasingly recognized in the bioinformatics community. Our assumption is that offering means of digital, structured aggregation and annotation of the objects of an experiment will provide necessary meta-data for a scientist to understand and recreate the results of an experiment. To support this we explored a model for the semantic description of a workflow-centric Research Object (RO), where an RO is defined as a resource that aggregates other resources, e.g., datasets, software, spreadsheets, text, etc. We applied this model to a case study where we analysed human metabolite variation by workflows. We present the application of the workflow-centric RO model for our bioinformatics case study. Three workflows were produced following recently defined Best Practices for workflow design. By modelling the experiment as an RO, we were able to automatically query the experiment and answer questions such as "which particular data was input to a particular workflow to test a particular hypothesis?", and "which particular conclusions were drawn from a particular workflow?". Applying a workflow-centric RO model to aggregate and annotate the resources used in a bioinformatics experiment, allowed us to retrieve the conclusions of the experiment in the context of the driving hypothesis, the executed workflows and their input data. The RO model is an extendable reference model that can be used by other systems as well. The Research Object is available at http://www.myexperiment.org/packs/428 The Wf4Ever Research Object Model is available at http://wf4ever.github.io/ro.

  9. Numerical modelling comparison of slow landslides: the Portalet case study (Central Pyrenees-Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Merodo, Jose Antonio; Garcia-Davalillo, Juan Carlos; Herrera, Gerardo

    2013-04-01

    Slow-moving landslides are a wide-spread type of active mass movement that cause severe damages to infrastructures and may be a precursor of sudden catastrophic slope failures. In this context, modelling slow-moving landslide behaviour is an important task in order to quantify and reduce the risk associated to this geological process. In practice, landslide occurrence and stability conditions are evaluated for a given scenario through a stability factor based on limit equilibrium analysis. This "static" approximation is hardly applied when boundary conditions are time dependent. Apart from earthquake studies, time dependent analysis is required when: (i) hydrological conditions change as in the case of rainfall; (ii) resistant parameters are reduced as in the case of strain softening or weathering processes and (iii) creep behaviour is taken into account. Different numerical models can be applied to reproduce the kinematic behaviour of large slow landslides. This paper compares four different models: i) a direct correlation with measured rainfall, ii) a simple 1D infinite slope viscoplastic model [1], iii) a 2D elasto-plastic finite element model [2] and iv) a 2D visco-plastic finite element model [3]. These models, ordered by increasing level of complexity, are compared by applying them to the Portalet case study. The Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees) is an active paleo-landslide that has been "reactivated" by the construction of a parking area at the toe of the slope in 2004. This landslide is still active despite the corrective measures carried out to stabilize it. The measurements obtained with different monitoring techniques (ground based SAR, advanced DInSAR processing of satellite SAR images, DGPS and inclinometers) indicate that the hillside is still moving today following two patterns. The first one corresponds to a slow continuous motion of constant speed of about 100 mm/year, the second one corresponds to accelerations of the moving mass when

  10. Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

    2015-11-01

    Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

  11. Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmoos, Michael; Henle, Klaus

    2010-11-01

    Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale. First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales. Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog ( Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required. The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.

  12. Air Pollution Modeling at Road Sides Using the Operational Street Pollution Model-A Case Study in Hanoi, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hung, Ngo Tho; Ketzel, Matthias; Jensen, Steen Solvang

    2010-01-01

    In many metropolitan areas, traffic is the main source of air pollution. The high concentrations of pollutants in streets have the potential to affect human health. Therefore, estimation of air pollution at the street level is required for health impact assessment. This task has been carried out...... in many developed countries by a combination of air quality measurements and modeling. This study focuses on how to apply a dispersion model to cities in the developing world, where model input data and data from air quality monitoring stations are limited or of varying quality. This research uses...... the operational street pollution model (OSPM) developed by the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark for a case study in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. OSPM predictions from five streets were evaluated against air pollution measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide...

  13. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  14. Using a small scale wireless sensor network for model validation. Two case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lengfeld, Katharina; Ament, Felix [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Zacharias, Stefan [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    In this paper, the potential of a network consisting of low cost weather stations for validating microscale model simulations and for forcing surface-atmosphere-transfer-schemes is investigated within two case studies. Transfer schemes often do not account for small scale variabilities of the earth surface, because measurements of the atmospheric conditions do not exist in such a high spatial resolution to force the models. To overcome this issue, in this study a small scale network of meteorological stations is used to derive measurements in high spatial and temporal resolution. The observations carried out during the measurement campaign are compared to air temperature and specific humidity simulations of the mesoscale atmospheric model FOOT3DK (Flow Over Orographically-Structured Terrain - 3 Dimensional Model (Koelner Version)). This comparison indicates that FOOT3DK simulates either air temperature or specific humidity satisfactorily for each station at the lowest model level, depending on the dominating land use class within each grid cell. The influence of heterogeneous forcing and vegetation on heat flux modelling is studied using the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme TERRA. The observations of the measurement campaign are used as input for four different runs with homogeneous and heterogeneous forcing and vegetation. Heterogeneous vegetation reduces the bias between the grid cells, heterogeneous forcing reduces the random error for each grid cell. (orig.)

  15. Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Baysal, Gülendam

    2013-01-01

    Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...

  16. A water treatment case study for quantifying model performance with multilevel flow modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil K. Nielsen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision support systems are a key focus of research on developing control rooms to aid operators in making reliable decisions and reducing incidents caused by human errors. For this purpose, models of complex systems can be developed to diagnose causes or consequences for specific alarms. Models applied in safety systems of complex and safety-critical systems require rigorous and reliable model building and testing. Multilevel flow modeling is a qualitative and discrete method for diagnosing faults and has previously only been validated by subjective and qualitative means. To ensure reliability during operation, this work aims to synthesize a procedure to measure model performance according to diagnostic requirements. A simple procedure is proposed for validating and evaluating the concept of multilevel flow modeling. For this purpose, expert statements, dynamic process simulations, and pilot plant experiments are used for validation of simple multilevel flow modeling models of a hydrocyclone unit for oil removal from produced water. Keywords: Fault Diagnosis, Model Validation, Multilevel Flow Modeling, Produced Water Treatment

  17. Customer Ranking Model for Project Businesses: A Case Study from the Automotive Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Markus Zunk

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available For technology-orientated enterprises that operate project-based businesses, the goal-oriented allocation of scarce marketing resources has great potential to help consolidate their competitive position. An important precondition for goal-oriented management is the identification of the most valuable customers. This enables technology-orientated enterprises to segment markets in order to make tactical marketing decisions. This theorybased paper aims to develop and test a holistic customer ranking model. By deploying the five steps presented in this paper, customer relationship managers are better able to identify and to rank their customers in project-based businesses. A case study provides an example of the application of the method from the automotive industry in Austria. The experiences derived from this case study show that using a customer ranking framework is a crucial factor for enterprises in narrow technology markets to be successful and to achieve their corporate goals.

  18. Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: A case study on Protein Kinase A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia P Hirakis

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained from various scales and analysis approaches, such as atomistic molecular models, Markov state models (MSM, subcellular network models, and whole cell models. In this paper, we use protein kinase A (PKA activation as a case study to explore how computational methods that model different physical scales can complement each other and integrate into an improved multiscale representation of the biological mechanisms. Using measured crystal structures, we show how molecular dynamics (MD simulations coupled with atomic-scale MSMs can provide conformations for Brownian dynamics (BD simulations to feed transitional states and kinetic parameters into protein-scale MSMs. We discuss how milestoning can give reaction probabilities and forward-rate constants of cAMP association events by seamlessly integrating MD and BD simulation scales. These rate constants coupled with MSMs provide a robust representation of the free energy landscape, enabling access to kinetic and thermodynamic parameters unavailable from current experimental data. These approaches have helped to illuminate the cooperative nature of PKA activation in response to distinct cAMP binding events. Collectively, this approach exemplifies a general strategy for multiscale model development that is applicable to a wide range of biological problems.

  19. Modeling of IP scanning activities with Hidden Markov Models: Darknet case study

    OpenAIRE

    De Santis , Giulia; Lahmadi , Abdelkader; Francois , Jerome; Festor , Olivier

    2016-01-01

    International audience; We propose a methodology based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model scanning activities monitored by a darknet. The HMMs of scanning activities are built on the basis of the number of scanned IP addresses within a time window and fitted using mixtures of Poisson distributions. Our methodology is applied on real data traces collected from a darknet and generated by two large scale scanners, ZMap and Shodan. We demonstrated that the built models are able to characteri...

  20. Method for mapping population-based case-control studies: an application using generalized additive models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aschengrau Ann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence and risk can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Disease registry data are often mapped by town or county of diagnosis and contain limited data on covariates. These maps often possess poor spatial resolution, the potential for spatial confounding, and the inability to consider latency. Population-based case-control studies can provide detailed information on residential history and covariates. Results Generalized additive models (GAMs provide a useful framework for mapping point-based epidemiologic data. Smoothing on location while controlling for covariates produces adjusted maps. We generate maps of odds ratios using the entire study area as a reference. We smooth using a locally weighted regression smoother (loess, a method that combines the advantages of nearest neighbor and kernel methods. We choose an optimal degree of smoothing by minimizing Akaike's Information Criterion. We use a deviance-based test to assess the overall importance of location in the model and pointwise permutation tests to locate regions of significantly increased or decreased risk. The method is illustrated with synthetic data and data from a population-based case-control study, using S-Plus and ArcView software. Conclusion Our goal is to develop practical methods for mapping population-based case-control and cohort studies. The method described here performs well for our synthetic data, reproducing important features of the data and adequately controlling the covariate. When applied to the population-based case-control data set, the method suggests spatial confounding and identifies statistically significant areas of increased and decreased odds ratios.

  1. A Water Treatment Case Study for Quantifying Model Performance with Multilevel Flow Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Emil Krabbe; Bram, Mads Valentin; Frutiger, Jerome

    2018-01-01

    Decision support systems are a key focus of research on developing control rooms to aid operators in making reliable decisions, and reducing incidents caused by human errors. For this purpose, models of complex systems can be developed to diagnose causes or consequences for specific alarms. Models...... during operation, this work aims to synthesize a procedure to measure model performance according to diagnostic requirements. A simple procedure is proposed for validating and evaluating the concept of Multilevel Flow Modelling. For this purpose, expert statements, dynamic process simulations, and pilot...

  2. A game theory model for stabilizing price of chili: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardayanti, Ari; Aviv, Afgan Suffan; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

    2017-11-01

    Chili is one of the important agricultural commodity in Indonesia because of its widely consumption by the Indonesian. Chili becomes one of the commodities that experience price fluctuations and important cause of yearly inflation in Indonesia. The unstable price of chili is affected by the scarcity of the commodity in some months and the difference of the harvest season. This study proposes a model to solve the problem by considering the substitution of fresh chilies with dried chili. We propose the cooperative of chili's farmer as entities that process fresh chili into dry ones. The existence of substitution products is expected to maintain the price stability chili. This research was conducted by taking a case study on chili commodity markets in Surakarta which consists of 19 traditional markets. This study aims to create a price stabilization scheme with product substitution using a game theory model. There are 4 strategies proposed in game theory model to describe the relationship between producers and consumers. In this case, the producers are the farmers and the consumers are the trade market. A mixed strategy of was chosen to determine the optimal value among 4 strategies. From the calculation results obtained optimal value when doing a mixed strategy of IDR 201,188,829,000.

  3. Studying the Behaviour of Model of Mirror Neuron System in Case of Autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Anirban

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Several experiment done by the researchers conducted that autism is caused by the dysfunctional mirror neuron system and the dysfunctions of mirror neuron system is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. In the present work those experiments were studied as well as studying a model of mirror neuron system called MNS2 developed by a research group. This research examined the behavior of the model in case of autism and compared the result with those studies conducting dysfunctions of mirror neuron system in autism. To perform this, a neural network employing the model was developed which recognized the three types of grasping (faster, normal and slower. The network was implemented with back propagation through time learning algorithm. The whole grasping process was divided into 30 time steps and different hand and object states at each time step was used as the input of the network. Normally the network successfully recognized all of the three types of grasps. The network required more times as the number of inactive neurons increased. And in case of maximum inactive neurons of the mirror neuron system the network became unable to recognize the types of grasp. As the time to recognize the types of grasp is proportional to the number of inactive neurons, the experiment result supports the hypothesis that dysfunctions of MNS is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. Keywords— Autism, MNS, mirror neuron, neural network, BPTT

  4. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  5. Business models in urban farming: A comparative analysis of case studies from Spain, Italy and Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pölling Bernd

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The “Urban Agriculture Europe” EU COST-Action (2012–2016 has shown that the complexity of urban agriculture (UA is hardly compressible into classic business management models and has proposed new management models, such as the Business Model Canvas (BMC. Business models of UA have to be different from rural ones. In particular, factors such as differentiation and diversification, but also low cost-oriented specialisation, are characteristic and necessary business models for UA to stay profitable in the long term under challenging city conditions. This paper aims to highlight how farm enterprises have to adjust to urban conditions by stepping into appropriate business models aiming to stay competitive and profitable, and how the BMC is useful to analyse their organisation and performance, both economically and socially. The paper offers an inter-regional analysis of UA enterprises located in Spain, Italy, and Germany, which are further subdivided into: local food, leisure, educational, social, therapeutic, agri-environmental, cultural heritage and experimental farms. The analysis demonstrates that UA is differentially adjusted to specific urban conditions and that the BMC is useful for analysing urban farming. Heterogeneous local food farms and the integration of local and organic food production in social farming business models are most frequent in our case studies.

  6. Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jumadi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario.

  7. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  8. Modeling Soil Sodicity Problems under Dryland and Irrigated Conditions: Case Studies in Argentina and Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso

    2014-05-01

    Salt-affected soils, both saline and sodic, my develop both under dryland and irrigated conditions, affecting negatively the physical and chemical soil properties, the crop production and the animal and human health.Among the development processes of salt-affected soils, the processes of sodification have been generally received less attention and is less understood than the development of saline soils. Although in both of them, hydrological processes are involved in their development, in the case of sodic soils we have to consider some additional chemical and physicochemical reactions, making more difficult their modeling and prediction. In this contribution we present two case studies: one related to the development of sodic soils in the lowlands of the Argentina Pampas, under dryland conditions and sub-humid temperate climate, with pastures for cattle production; the other deals with the development of sodic soils in the Colombia Cauca Valley, under irrigated conditions and tropical sub-humid climate, in lands used for sugarcane cropping dedicated to sugar and ethanol production. In both cases the development of sodicity in the surface soil is mainly related to the effects of the composition and level of groundwater, affected in the case of Argentina Pampas by the off-site changes in dryland use and management in the upper zones and by the drainage conditions in the lowlands, and in the case of the Cauca Valley, by the on-site irrigation and drainage management in lands with sugarcane. There is shown how the model SALSODIMAR, developed by the main author, based on the balance of water and soluble componentes of both the irrigation water and groundwater under different water and land management conditions, may be adapted for the diagnosis and prediction of both problems, and for the selection of alternatives for their management and amelioration.

  9. IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  10. Business model in marketplace industry using business model canvas approach: An e-commerce case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlyana, Yana; Hartono, Henny

    2017-12-01

    The advancement of technology has huge impact on commerce world, especially in the marketplace that has shifted from brick-and-mortar to digital/online marketplace. Grasping the opportunity, ABC joined venture with DEF to create a new online venture namely XYZ Online Shop - an e-commerce website that has large segmentations. The objective of this research is to analyze the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop by utilizing Business Model Canvas Framework and SWOT analysis. The results obtained from the research are that the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop excels in customer relationship block and still needs to improve key partner and key activities blocks. Business Model Canvas along with SWOT analysis describes how XYZ Online Shop creates, delivers, and captures value based on its internal and external environments.

  11. Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  12. Reversal permanent charge and reversal potential: case studies via classical Poisson–Nernst–Planck models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, Bob; Liu, Weishi; Xu, Hongguo

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we are interested in effects of a simple profile of permanent charges on ionic flows. We determine when a permanent charge produces current reversal. We adopt the classical Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) models of ionic flows for this study. The starting point of our analysis is the recently developed geometric singular perturbation approach for PNP models. Under the setting in the paper for case studies, we are able to identify a single governing equation for the existence and the value of the permanent charge for a current reversal. A number of interesting features are established. The related topic on reversal potential can be viewed as a dual problem and is briefly examined in this work too. (paper)

  13. Preference learning for cognitive modeling: a case study on entertainment preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yannakakis, Georgios; Maragoudakis, Manolis; Hallam, John

    2009-01-01

    Learning from preferences, which provide means for expressing a subject's desires, constitutes an important topic in machine learning research. This paper presents a comparative study of four alternative instance preference learning algorithms (both linear and nonlinear). The case study...... investigated is to learn to predict the expressed entertainment preferences of children when playing physical games built on their personalized playing features (entertainment modeling). Two of the approaches are derived from the literature--the large-margin algorithm (LMA) and preference learning...... with Gaussian processes--while the remaining two are custom-designed approaches for the problem under investigation: meta-LMA and neuroevolution. Preference learning techniques are combined with feature set selection methods permitting the construction of effective preference models, given suitable individual...

  14. Location-Allocation model for food industrial using fuzzy criteria: A case study of dairy industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Esfandiyari

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available A good facility layout plays an important role on increasing the profitability of a production unit. A good location needs to meet different criteria such as the distance between the plants and the places to reach raw materials, customers, etc. In this paper, we proposed a multi criteria decision making problem to locate a suitable dairy plant. We assume that all factors influencing the plant involves uncertainty and proposed fuzzy numbers to handle the uncertainty associated with all input parameters. We apply the method for a real-world case study of dairy production unit and analyze the results of our proposed model.

  15. Modeling and processing for next-generation big-data technologies with applications and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Barolli, Leonard; Barolli, Admir; Papajorgji, Petraq

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest advances in Big Data technologies and provides the readers with a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in Big Data processing, analysis, analytics, and other related topics. It presents new models, algorithms, software solutions and methodologies, covering the full data cycle, from data gathering to their visualization and interaction, and includes a set of case studies and best practices. New research issues, challenges and opportunities shaping the future agenda in the field of Big Data are also identified and presented throughout the book, which is intended for researchers, scholars, advanced students, software developers and practitioners working at the forefront in their field.

  16. Recovery as a model of care? Insights from an Australian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hungerford, Catherine

    2014-03-01

    The terms "model of health care," "service model." and "nursing model of practice" are often used interchangeably in practice, policy, and research, despite differences in definitions. This article considers these terms in the context of consumer-centred recovery and its implementation into a publicly-funded health service organization in Australia. Findings of a case study analysis are used to inform the discussion, which considers the diverse models of health care employed by health professionals; together with the implications for organizations worldwide that are responsible for operationalizing recovery approaches to health care. As part of the discussion, it is suggested that the advent of recovery-oriented services, rather than recovery models of health care, presents challenges for the evaluation of the outcomes of these services. At the same time, this situation provides opportunities for mental health nurses to lead the way, by developing rigorous models of practice that support consumers who have acute, chronic, or severe mental illness on their recovery journey; and generate positive, measureable outcomes.

  17. Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Terando, Adam; Steiner, Allison

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.

  18. PARALLEL MODELS OF ASSESSMENT: INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THERAPEUTIC ASSESSMENT MODELS INTERSECT THROUGH EARLY CHILDHOOD CASE STUDIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gart, Natalie; Zamora, Irina; Williams, Marian E

    2016-07-01

    Therapeutic Assessment (TA; S.E. Finn & M.E. Tonsager, 1997; J.D. Smith, 2010) is a collaborative, semistructured model that encourages self-discovery and meaning-making through the use of assessment as an intervention approach. This model shares core strategies with infant mental health assessment, including close collaboration with parents and caregivers, active participation of the family, a focus on developing new family stories and increasing parents' understanding of their child, and reducing isolation and increasing hope through the assessment process. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches is explored, using case studies of three infants/young children and their families to illustrate the application of TA to infant mental health. The case of an 18-month-old girl whose parents fear that she has bipolar disorder illustrates the core principles of the TA model, highlighting the use of assessment intervention sessions and the clinical approach to preparing assessment feedback. The second case follows an infant with a rare genetic syndrome from ages 2 to 24 months, focusing on the assessor-parent relationship and the importance of a developmental perspective. Finally, assessment of a 3-year-old boy illustrates the development and use of a fable as a tool to provide feedback to a young child about assessment findings and recommendations. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  19. Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardin, Jaline; Bever, Caitlin A; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Miller, John M; Eisele, Thomas P; Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A

    2017-06-12

    Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive case detection is best poised to push a region to elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling to assess how baseline transmission intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of reactive activities in the context of other possible intervention packages. Communities in Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination operations are currently underway, were used as representatives of three archetypes of malaria transmission: low-transmission, high household density; high-transmission, low household density; and high-transmission, high household density. Transmission at the spatially-connected household level was simulated with a dynamical model of malaria transmission, and local variation in vectorial capacity and intervention coverage were parameterized according to data collected from the area. Various potential intervention packages were imposed on each of the archetypical settings and the resulting likelihoods of elimination by the end of 2020 were compared. Simulations predict that success of elimination campaigns in both low- and high-transmission areas is strongly dependent on stemming the flow of imported infections, underscoring the need for regional-scale strategies capable of reducing transmission concurrently across many connected areas. In historically low-transmission areas, treatment of clinical malaria should form the cornerstone of elimination operations, as most malaria infections in these areas are symptomatic and onward transmission would be mitigated through health system strengthening; reactive case detection has minimal impact in these settings. In historically high-transmission areas, vector control and case management are crucial for limiting outbreak size, and the asymptomatic reservoir must be addressed through

  20. Developing a quality by design approach to model tablet dissolution testing: an industrial case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yekpe, Ketsia; Abatzoglou, Nicolas; Bataille, Bernard; Gosselin, Ryan; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Simard, Jean-Sébastien; Cournoyer, Antoine

    2017-11-02

    This study applied the concept of Quality by Design (QbD) to tablet dissolution. Its goal was to propose a quality control strategy to model dissolution testing of solid oral dose products according to International Conference on Harmonization guidelines. The methodology involved the following three steps: (1) a risk analysis to identify the material- and process-related parameters impacting the critical quality attributes of dissolution testing, (2) an experimental design to evaluate the influence of design factors (attributes and parameters selected by risk analysis) on dissolution testing, and (3) an investigation of the relationship between design factors and dissolution profiles. Results show that (a) in the case studied, the two parameters impacting dissolution kinetics are active pharmaceutical ingredient particle size distributions and tablet hardness and (b) these two parameters could be monitored with PAT tools to predict dissolution profiles. Moreover, based on the results obtained, modeling dissolution is possible. The practicality and effectiveness of the QbD approach were demonstrated through this industrial case study. Implementing such an approach systematically in industrial pharmaceutical production would reduce the need for tablet dissolution testing.

  1. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  2. Developing and Testing a 3d Cadastral Data Model a Case Study in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aien, A.; Kalantari, M.; Rajabifard, A.; Williamson, I. P.; Shojaei, D.

    2012-07-01

    and physical extent of 3D properties and associated interests. The data model extends the traditional cadastral requirements to cover other applications such as urban planning and land valuation and taxation. A demonstration of a test system on the proposed data model is also presented. The test is based on a case study in Victoria, Australia to evaluate the effectiveness of the data model.

  3. Comparative Study of Elastic Network Model and Protein Contact Network for Protein Complexes: The Hemoglobin Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall topology and interfacial interactions play key roles in understanding structural and functional principles of protein complexes. Elastic Network Model (ENM and Protein Contact Network (PCN are two widely used methods for high throughput investigation of structures and interactions within protein complexes. In this work, the comparative analysis of ENM and PCN relative to hemoglobin (Hb was taken as case study. We examine four types of structural and dynamical paradigms, namely, conformational change between different states of Hbs, modular analysis, allosteric mechanisms studies, and interface characterization of an Hb. The comparative study shows that ENM has an advantage in studying dynamical properties and protein-protein interfaces, while PCN is better for describing protein structures quantitatively both from local and from global levels. We suggest that the integration of ENM and PCN would give a potential but powerful tool in structural systems biology.

  4. [Study on the ARIMA model application to predict echinococcosis cases in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    En-Li, Tan; Zheng-Feng, Wang; Wen-Ce, Zhou; Shi-Zhu, Li; Yan, Lu; Lin, Ai; Yu-Chun, Cai; Xue-Jiao, Teng; Shun-Xian, Zhang; Zhi-Sheng, Dang; Chun-Li, Yang; Jia-Xu, Chen; Wei, Hu; Xiao-Nong, Zhou; Li-Guang, Tian

    2018-02-26

    To predict the monthly reported echinococcosis cases in China with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of echinococcosis. SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported echinococcosis cases of time series from 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2014, respectively, and the accuracies of the two ARIMA models were compared. The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2015 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0) 12 , the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was -13.97%, AR (1) = 0.367 ( t = 3.816, P ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12 , the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was 0.56%, AR (1) = 0.413 ( t = 4.244, P ARIMA models as for the same infectious diseases. It is needed to be further verified that the more data are accumulated, the shorter time of predication is, and the smaller the average of the relative error is. The establishment and prediction of an ARIMA model is a dynamic process that needs to be adjusted and optimized continuously according to the accumulated data, meantime, we should give full consideration to the intensity of the work related to infectious diseases reported (such as disease census and special investigation).

  5. Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

    2017-10-01

    Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

  6. A Case Study of the Accounting Models for the Participants in an Emissions Trading Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Deac

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available As emissions trading schemes are becoming more popular across the world, accounting has to keep up with these new economic developments. The absence of guidance regarding the accounting for greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions generated by the withdrawal of IFRIC 3- Emission Rights - is the main reason why there is a diversity of accounting practices. This diversity of accounting methods makes the financial statements of companies that are taking part in emissions trading schemes like EU ETS, difficult to compare. The present paper uses a case study that assumes the existence of three entities that have chosen three different accounting methods: the IFRIC 3 cost model, the IFRIC 3 revaluation model and the “off balance sheet” approach. This illustrates how the choice of an accounting method regarding GHGs emissions influences their interim and annual reports through the chances in the companies’ balance sheet and financial results.

  7. Phase aided 3D imaging and modeling: dedicated systems and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yongkai; He, Dong; Liu, Zeyi; Liu, Xiaoli; Peng, Xiang

    2014-05-01

    Dedicated prototype systems for 3D imaging and modeling (3DIM) are presented. The 3D imaging systems are based on the principle of phase-aided active stereo, which have been developed in our laboratory over the past few years. The reported 3D imaging prototypes range from single 3D sensor to a kind of optical measurement network composed of multiple node 3D-sensors. To enable these 3D imaging systems, we briefly discuss the corresponding calibration techniques for both single sensor and multi-sensor optical measurement network, allowing good performance of the 3DIM prototype systems in terms of measurement accuracy and repeatability. Furthermore, two case studies including the generation of high quality color model of movable cultural heritage and photo booth from body scanning are presented to demonstrate our approach.

  8. Business performance assessment and the EFQM Excellence Model 2010 (case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Antošová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of the latest management methods becomes today, during the ongoing European integration processes, a requisite for the success of the business within the environment of international markets. In this paper, the authors pay attention to the expansion of the organizational knowledge base with an application of a new management method. They are dealing with assessment of the organization performance, the issue of its effectiveness and the increasing economic efficiency, on an example of a selected mining company as a case study. In order to detect weaknesses in the company reviewed and to offer suggestions for improvement, which may move the company towards prosperity, the authors carried out the performance assessment by using the EFQM Excellence Model 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the business performance assessment model in terms of the European standards that will allow the use of latest management methods in the environment of both the Slovak and European companies.

  9. Identifying 'unhealthy' food advertising on television: a case study applying the UK Nutrient Profile model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkin, Gabrielle; Wilson, Nick; Hermanson, Nicole

    2009-05-01

    To evaluate the feasibility of the UK Nutrient Profile (NP) model for identifying 'unhealthy' food advertisements using a case study of New Zealand television advertisements. Four weeks of weekday television from 15.30 hours to 18.30 hours was videotaped from a state-owned (free-to-air) television channel popular with children. Food advertisements were identified and their nutritional information collected in accordance with the requirements of the NP model. Nutrient information was obtained from a variety of sources including food labels, company websites and a national nutritional database. From the 60 h sample of weekday afternoon television, there were 1893 advertisements, of which 483 were for food products or retailers. After applying the NP model, 66 % of these were classified as advertising high-fat, high-salt and high-sugar (HFSS) foods; 28 % were classified as advertising non-HFSS foods; and the remaining 2 % were unclassifiable. More than half (53 %) of the HFSS food advertisements were for 'mixed meal' items promoted by major fast-food franchises. The advertising of non-HFSS food was sparse, covering a narrow range of food groups, with no advertisements for fresh fruit or vegetables. Despite the NP model having some design limitations in classifying real-world televised food advertisements, it was easily applied to this sample and could clearly identify HFSS products. Policy makers who do not wish to completely restrict food advertising to children outright should consider using this NP model for regulating food advertising.

  10. Application of a 2D air flow model to soil vapor extraction and bioventing case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, D.H.; Merz, P.H.

    1995-01-01

    Soil vapor extraction (SVE) is frequently the technology of choice to clean up hydrocarbon contamination in unsaturated soil. A two-dimensional air flow model provides a practical tool to evaluate pilot test data and estimate remediation rates for soil vapor extraction systems. The model predictions of soil vacuum versus distance are statistically compared to pilot test data for 65 SVE wells at 44 sites. For 17 of 21 sites where there was asphalt paving, the best agreement was obtained for boundary conditions with no barrier to air flow at the surface. The model predictions of air flow rates and stream lines around the well allow an estimate of the gasoline removal rates by both evaporation and bioremediation. The model can be used to quickly estimate the effective radius of influence, defined here as the maximum distance from the well where there is enough air flow to remove the contaminant present within the allowable time. The effective radius of influence is smaller than a radius of influence defined by soil vacuum only. For a case study, in situ bioremediation rates were estimated using the air flow model and compared to independent estimates based on changes in soil temperature. These estimate bioremediation rates for heavy fuel oil ranged from 2.5 to 11 mg oil degraded per kg soil per day, in agreement with values in the literature

  11. Inter-comparison of receptor models for PM source apportionment: Case study in an industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, M.; Pandolfi, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Monfort, E.; Celades, I.

    2008-05-01

    Receptor modelling techniques are used to identify and quantify the contributions from emission sources to the levels and major and trace components of ambient particulate matter (PM). A wide variety of receptor models are currently available, and consequently the comparability between models should be evaluated if source apportionment data are to be used as input in health effects studies or mitigation plans. Three of the most widespread receptor models (principal component analysis, PCA; positive matrix factorization, PMF; chemical mass balance, CMB) were applied to a single PM10 data set (n=328 samples, 2002-2005) obtained from an industrial area in NE Spain, dedicated to ceramic production. Sensitivity and temporal trend analyses (using the Mann-Kendall test) were applied. Results evidenced the good overall performance of the three models (r2>0.83 and α>0.91×between modelled and measured PM10 mass), with a good agreement regarding source identification and high correlations between input (CMB) and output (PCA, PMF) source profiles. Larger differences were obtained regarding the quantification of source contributions (up to a factor of 4 in some cases). The combined application of different types of receptor models would solve the limitations of each of the models, by constructing a more robust solution based on their strengths. The authors suggest the combined use of factor analysis techniques (PCA, PMF) to identify and interpret emission sources, and to obtain a first quantification of their contributions to the PM mass, and the subsequent application of CMB. Further research is needed to ensure that source apportionment methods are robust enough for application to PM health effects assessments.

  12. Modeling of a Parabolic Trough Solar Field for Acceptance Testing: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, M. J.; Mehos, M. S.; Kearney, D. W.; McMahan, A. C.

    2011-01-01

    As deployment of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) systems ramps up, the need for reliable and robust performance acceptance test guidelines for the solar field is also amplified. Project owners and/or EPC contractors often require extensive solar field performance testing as part of the plant commissioning process in order to ensure that actual solar field performance satisfies both technical specifications and performance guaranties between the involved parties. Performance test code work is currently underway at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with the SolarPACES Task-I activity, and within the ASME PTC-52 committee. One important aspect of acceptance testing is the selection of a robust technology performance model. NREL1 has developed a detailed parabolic trough performance model within the SAM software tool. This model is capable of predicting solar field, sub-system, and component performance. It has further been modified for this work to support calculation at subhourly time steps. This paper presents the methodology and results of a case study comparing actual performance data for a parabolic trough solar field to the predicted results using the modified SAM trough model. Due to data limitations, the methodology is applied to a single collector loop, though it applies to larger subfields and entire solar fields. Special consideration is provided for the model formulation, improvements to the model formulation based on comparison with the collected data, and uncertainty associated with the measured data. Additionally, this paper identifies modeling considerations that are of particular importance in the solar field acceptance testing process and uses the model to provide preliminary recommendations regarding acceptable steady-state testing conditions at the single-loop level.

  13. On the Impact of Execution Models: A Case Study in Computational Chemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Manzano Franco, Joseph B.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Hoisie, Adolfy

    2015-05-25

    Efficient utilization of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms is an important and complex problem. Execution models, abstract descriptions of the dynamic runtime behavior of the execution stack, have significant impact on the utilization of HPC systems. Using a computational chemistry kernel as a case study and a wide variety of execution models combined with load balancing techniques, we explore the impact of execution models on the utilization of an HPC system. We demonstrate a 50 percent improvement in performance by using work stealing relative to a more traditional static scheduling approach. We also use a novel semi-matching technique for load balancing that has comparable performance to a traditional hypergraph-based partitioning implementation, which is computationally expensive. Using this study, we found that execution model design choices and assumptions can limit critical optimizations such as global, dynamic load balancing and finding the correct balance between available work units and different system and runtime overheads. With the emergence of multi- and many-core architectures and the consequent growth in the complexity of HPC platforms, we believe that these lessons will be beneficial to researchers tuning diverse applications on modern HPC platforms, especially on emerging dynamic platforms with energy-induced performance variability.

  14. Numerical modeling for longwall pillar design: a case study from a typical longwall panel in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangchao; Liang, Saijiang; Tan, Yunliang; Xie, Fuxing; Chen, Shaojie; Jia, Hongguo

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a new numerical modeling procedure and design principle for longwall pillar design with the assistance of numerical simulation of FLAC3D. A coal mine located in Yanzhou city, Shandong Province, China, was selected for this case study. A meticulously validated numerical model was developed to investigate the stress changes across the longwall pillar with various sizes. In order to improve the reliability of the numerical modeling, a calibration procedure is undertaken to match the Salamon and Munro pillar strength formula for the coal pillar, while a similar calibration procedure is used to estimate the stress-strain response of a gob. The model results demonstrated that when the coal pillar width was 7-8 m, most of the vertical load was carried by the panel rib, whilst the gateroad was overall in a relatively low stress environment and could keep its stability with proper supports. Thus, the rational longwall pillar width was set as 8 m and the field monitoring results confirmed the feasibility of this pillar size. The proposed numerical simulation procedure and design principle presented in this study could be a viable alternative approach for longwall pillar design for other similar projects.

  15. Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this

  16. CASE STUDY CRITIQUE; UPPER CLINCH CASE STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case study critique: Upper Clinch case study (from Research on Methods for Integrating Ecological Economics and Ecological Risk Assessment: A Trade-off Weighted Index Approach to Integrating Economics and Ecological Risk Assessment). This critique answers the questions: 1) does ...

  17. Generalized functional linear models for gene-based case-control association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Carter, Tonia C; Lobach, Iryna; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Weeks, Daniel E; Xiong, Momiao

    2014-11-01

    By using functional data analysis techniques, we developed generalized functional linear models for testing association between a dichotomous trait and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region while adjusting for covariates. Both fixed and mixed effect models are developed and compared. Extensive simulations show that Rao's efficient score tests of the fixed effect models are very conservative since they generate lower type I errors than nominal levels, and global tests of the mixed effect models generate accurate type I errors. Furthermore, we found that the Rao's efficient score test statistics of the fixed effect models have higher power than the sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified version (SKAT-O) in most cases when the causal variants are both rare and common. When the causal variants are all rare (i.e., minor allele frequencies less than 0.03), the Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests have similar or slightly lower power than SKAT and SKAT-O. In practice, it is not known whether rare variants or common variants in a gene region are disease related. All we can assume is that a combination of rare and common variants influences disease susceptibility. Thus, the improved performance of our models when the causal variants are both rare and common shows that the proposed models can be very useful in dissecting complex traits. We compare the performance of our methods with SKAT and SKAT-O on real neural tube defects and Hirschsprung's disease datasets. The Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests are more sensitive than SKAT and SKAT-O in the real data analysis. Our methods can be used in either gene-disease genome-wide/exome-wide association studies or candidate gene analyses. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  18. Improved workflow modelling using role activity diagram-based modelling with application to a radiology service case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Nagesh; Keast, John E; Ceglarek, Darek

    2014-10-01

    The modelling of complex workflows is an important problem-solving technique within healthcare settings. However, currently most of the workflow models use a simplified flow chart of patient flow obtained using on-site observations, group-based debates and brainstorming sessions, together with historic patient data. This paper presents a systematic and semi-automatic methodology for knowledge acquisition with detailed process representation using sequential interviews of people in the key roles involved in the service delivery process. The proposed methodology allows the modelling of roles, interactions, actions, and decisions involved in the service delivery process. This approach is based on protocol generation and analysis techniques such as: (i) initial protocol generation based on qualitative interviews of radiology staff, (ii) extraction of key features of the service delivery process, (iii) discovering the relationships among the key features extracted, and, (iv) a graphical representation of the final structured model of the service delivery process. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of a magnetic resonance (MR) scanning service-delivery process in the radiology department of a large hospital. A set of guidelines is also presented in this paper to visually analyze the resulting process model for identifying process vulnerabilities. A comparative analysis of different workflow models is also conducted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Designing a Care Pathway Model - A Case Study of the Outpatient Total Hip Arthroplasty Care Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterholt, Robin I; Simonse, Lianne Wl; Boess, Stella U; Vehmeijer, Stephan Bw

    2017-03-09

    Although the clinical attributes of total hip arthroplasty (THA) care pathways have been thoroughly researched, a detailed understanding of the equally important organisational attributes is still lacking. The aim of this article is to contribute with a model of the outpatient THA care pathway that depicts how the care team should be organised to enable patient discharge on the day of surgery. The outpatient THA care pathway enables patients to be discharged on the day of surgery, shortening the length of stay and intensifying the provision and organisation of care. We utilise visual care modelling to construct a visual design of the organisation of the care pathway. An embedded case study was conducted of the outpatient THA care pathway at a teaching hospital in the Netherlands. The data were collected using a visual care modelling toolkit in 16 semi-structured interviews. Problems and inefficiencies in the care pathway were identified and addressed in the iterative design process. The results are two visual models of the most critical phases of the outpatient THA care pathway: diagnosis & preparation (1) and mobilisation & discharge (4). The results show the care team composition, critical value exchanges, and sequence that enable patient discharge on the day of surgery. The design addressed existing problems and is an optimisation of the case hospital's pathway. The network of actors consists of the patient (1), radiologist (1), anaesthetist (1), nurse specialist (1), pharmacist (1), orthopaedic surgeon (1,4), physiotherapist (1,4), nurse (4), doctor (4) and patient application (1,4). The critical value exchanges include patient preparation (mental and practical), patient education, aligned care team, efficient sequence of value exchanges, early patient mobilisation, flexible availability of the physiotherapist, functional discharge criteria, joint decision making and availability of the care team.

  20. Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

    2016-09-21

    Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived

  1. Aircraft operational reliability—A model-based approach and a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiassou, Kossi; Kanoun, Karama; Kaâniche, Mohamed; Seguin, Christel; Papadopoulos, Chris

    2013-01-01

    The success of an aircraft mission is subject to the fulfillment of some operational requirements before and during each flight. As these requirements depend essentially on the aircraft system components and the mission profile, the effects of failures can be very severe if they are not anticipated. Hence, one should be able to assess the aircraft operational reliability with regard to its missions in order to be able to cope with failures. We address aircraft operational reliability modeling to support maintenance planning during the mission achievement. We develop a modeling approach, based on a meta-model that is used as a basis: (i) to structure the information needed to assess aircraft operational reliability and (ii) to build a stochastic model that can be tuned dynamically, in order to take into account the aircraft system operational state, a mission profile and the maintenance facilities available at the flight stop locations involved in the mission. The aim is to enable operational reliability assessment online. A case study, based on an aircraft subsystem, is considered for illustration using the Stochastic Activity Networks (SANs) formalism

  2. NOT JUST SHOP – An Innovative and Socially Responsible Business Model: The Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Gotowska

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an example of a Europe-wide, innovative business model in the form of an I nternet store – NOT JUST SHOP. The examples of this business model can also be found in the United States. This is the first model of this sort in Europe. A similar business model is currently used in Switzerland. I ts objective is regular economic activity and seeking to make profit. This is nothing unusual. There are many companies like this. However, NOT JUST SHOP offers products the price of which includes an amount which goes to children, adults and other social groups in need. What is most important, the said amount is immediately available for the needy, not after achieving a profit. Moreover, customers of NOT JUST SHOP instantly see where their money goes and for which purpose. Consequently, there is full transparency. The presented case study is a guideline to create new innovative business solutions which lead not only to achieving profits, but also undertaking actions which are socially responsible.

  3. Evolving Curricular Models in Culinary Arts: An Instrumental Case Study of a Technical Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossio, Allison

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research study was to examine how chefs and other individuals in the food industry understood the field of culinary arts. This study used an instrumental case study with purposeful sampling of multiple cases. Through a series of open-ended interviews using snowball-sampling strategy that concluded with 45 participants sharing…

  4. Development of electrical analogue model for studying seepage flow under hydraulic structures - case study: Sukkur barrage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, H.F.; Umar, I.A.; Khan, G.D.

    2003-01-01

    For the solution of groundwater problem many types of models are used, but electrical analogue model is preferred due to its close response with its prototype hydrological system. This model is easy to construct and is reusable. In the model voltage is correlated to groundwater head electric current to flow and capacitance to groundwater storage. The analogy of the model is derived based on Kirchhoffs law and Finite difference form of Laplace equation. The network is consisting of square and rectangular meshes. Scaling factor for voltage and resistors are selected. All the equipment needed for assembling the model are prepared. Terminal strips and their connectivity are checked. Calculated resistors with accurate values after cutting and molding are inserted in the terminal strips and desired section is completed. A network of resistors in X and Z direction is used to represent the aquifer. Two stabilized power supply are used to provide the electrical potential. The worst condition is maintained by supplying the maximum head at upstream and dry condition at downstream. After the development of the model conclusion derived shows that the model are in a position to express the groundwater potential for seepage distribution under the floor with high degree of accuracy. Moreover there is a very good proportion between sample and the actual prototype in existence. The actual model when tested by model show very clear results for the sheet pile in relation to floor length to control seepage or uplift pressure caused. The existence design of Sukkur barrage and its overestimation and underestimation with reference to their sheet pile have been specifically determined. (author)

  5. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  6. A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamedi, Maryam; Zanjirani Farahani, Reza; Husseini, Mohammad Moattar; Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a real-world case study of a natural gas supply chain is investigated. By using concepts related to natural gas industry and the relations among the components of transmission and distribution network, a six-level supply chain has been introduced and presented schematically. The defined supply chain is a single-objective, multi-period, and single-product problem that is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming model, which can easily be linearized. The objective of this model is to minimize direct or indirect distribution costs. There are six groups of constraints including capacity, input and output balancing, demand satisfaction, network flow continuity, and relative constraints to the required binary variables. The solution algorithm of the problem is hierarchical; in each step, one section of the problem is solved using an exact method; the outputs of this section are passed to the next relative section as inputs. Finally, it is shown that the problem has been solved in a reasonable time and desirable results are attained. The use of proposed model and its solution approach have been studied in two gas trunk lines, to present the priority of its cost saving

  7. Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Kang, Junjie; Zhang, Xingping; Hu, Zheng

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government. - Highlights: • Improve IRSP model by adding nonlinear external and popularization cost. • The model is used to conduct China's power sector planning in 2011–2021. • Simulate the impacts of alternative energy policies on planning results. • The model can be used for joint power sector planning and policy design

  8. Analysis of Artificial Neural Network in Erosion Modeling: A Case Study of Serang Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arif, N.; Danoedoro, P.; Hartono

    2017-12-01

    Erosion modeling is an important measuring tool for both land users and decision makers to evaluate land cultivation and thus it is necessary to have a model to represent the actual reality. Erosion models are a complex model because of uncertainty data with different sources and processing procedures. Artificial neural networks can be relied on for complex and non-linear data processing such as erosion data. The main difficulty in artificial neural network training is the determination of the value of each network input parameters, i.e. hidden layer, momentum, learning rate, momentum, and RMS. This study tested the capability of artificial neural network application in the prediction of erosion risk with some input parameters through multiple simulations to get good classification results. The model was implemented in Serang Watershed, Kulonprogo, Yogyakarta which is one of the critical potential watersheds in Indonesia. The simulation results showed the number of iterations that gave a significant effect on the accuracy compared to other parameters. A small number of iterations can produce good accuracy if the combination of other parameters was right. In this case, one hidden layer was sufficient to produce good accuracy. The highest training accuracy achieved in this study was 99.32%, occurred in ANN 14 simulation with combination of network input parameters of 1 HL; LR 0.01; M 0.5; RMS 0.0001, and the number of iterations of 15000. The ANN training accuracy was not influenced by the number of channels, namely input dataset (erosion factors) as well as data dimensions, rather it was determined by changes in network parameters.

  9. Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

    2015-05-22

    Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

  10. Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies. This report summarizes some of the recent progress in characterizing uncertainty and variability in physi...

  11. Collaborative Model-based Systems Engineering for Cyber-Physical Systems, with a Building Automation Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzgerald, John; Gamble, Carl; Payne, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We describe an approach to the model-based engineering of cyber-physical systems that permits the coupling of diverse discrete-event and continuous-time models and their simulators. A case study in the building automation domain demonstrates how such co-models and co-simulation can promote early...

  12. A Case Study on the Effects of an L2 Writing Instructional Model for Blended Learning in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Lee; Lee, Chung Hyun

    2013-01-01

    This case study explores EFL (English as a foreign language) students' perceptions toward a prototype of an instructional model for second language (L2) writing in blended learning and the effects of the model on the development of L2 writing skills in higher education. This model is primarily founded on the process-oriented writing approach…

  13. Simplifying dynamic river water quality modelling: A case study of inorganic nitrogen dynamics in the Crocodile River (South Africa).

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Deksissa, T

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Quality Model No. 1, which is one of the most comprehensive basic river water quality models available in literature. The applicability of the simplified model in data limited situations was investigated using a case study of inorganic nitrogen (nitrate...

  14. Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosneron-Dupin, F.; Reer, B.; Heslinga, G.; Straeter, O.; Gerdes, V.; Saliou, G.; Ullwer, W.

    1997-01-01

    As an informal working group of researchers from France, Germany and The Netherlands created in 1993, the EARTH association is investigating significant subjects in the field of human reliability analysis (HRA). Our initial review of cases from nuclear operating experience showed that decision-based unrequired actions (DUA) contribute to risk significantly on the one hand. On the other hand, our evaluation of current HRA methods showed that these methods do not cover such actions adequately. Especially, practice-oriented guidelines for their predictive identification are lacking. We assumed that a basic cause for such difficulties was that these methods actually use a limited representation of the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) paradigm. We proposed a human-centered model, which better highlights the active role of the operators and the importance of their culture, attitudes and goals. This orientation was encouraged by our review of current HRA research activities. We therefore decided to envisage progress by identifying cognitive tendencies in the context of operating and simulator experience. For this purpose, advanced approaches for retrospective event analysis were discussed. Some orientations for improvements were proposed. By analyzing cases, various cognitive tendencies were identified, together with useful information about their context. Some of them match psychological findings already published in the literature, some of them are not covered adequately by the literature that we reviewed. Finally, this exploratory study shows that contextual and case-illustrated findings about cognitive tendencies provide useful help for the predictive identification of DUA in HRA. More research should be carried out to complement our findings and elaborate more detailed and systematic guidelines for using them in HRA studies

  15. Hybrid supply chain model for material requirement planning under financial constraints: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curci, Vita; Dassisti, Michele; Josefa, Mula Bru; Manuel, Díaz Madroñero

    2014-10-01

    Supply chain model (SCM) are potentially capable to integrate different aspects in supporting decision making for enterprise management tasks. The aim of the paper is to propose an hybrid mathematical programming model for optimization of production requirements resources planning. The preliminary model was conceived bottom-up from a real industrial case analysed oriented to maximize cash flow. Despite the intense computational effort required to converge to a solution, optimisation done brought good result in solving the objective function.

  16. Contradictions of Designing with Building Information Modelling - A Case Study with an Activity Theory Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gade, Peter; Gade, Anne Nørkjær; Otrel-Cass, Kathrin

    2018-01-01

    Building information modelling (BIM) offers a great potential for increasing efficiency in the building industry. However, this potential remains largely unfulfilled; substantiating the need for a sound understanding of the existing practices involved in the building design process, to implement...... BIM efficiently. The aim of this article is to discuss the unfolding activity of a building design process and the role of BIM as a mediating tool. A case study was carried out to investigate contradictions related to the use of BIM in an inter-organizational design process of a naval rescue station...... in Denmark. Aspects of the design activity and the development of practices during the project were explored through the lens of Activity Theory. We were able to examine how BIM-mediated the production of the building design, how BIM use evolved. The article presents and discusses four main contradictions...

  17. Taking a case study approach to assessing alternative leadership models in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Jonathan; Mayo, Paula

    2018-06-14

    Good leadership is essential to patient-centred care and staff satisfaction in the healthcare environment. All members of the healthcare team can be leaders and evidence-based theory should inform their leadership practice. This article uses a case study approach to critically evaluate leadership as exercised by a charge nurse and a student nurse in a clinical scenario. Ineffective leadership styles are identified and alternatives proposed; considerable attention is given to critiquing both 'heroic' and 'post-heroic' transformational leadership theories. The concept of power will also be discussed, as power and leadership are closely related, and the importance of empowering members of the healthcare team through altering organisational structure is emphasised. This article advocates leadership that encourages innovation, enhances patient-centred care, encourages excellence and has ethical integrity. Recommendations of appropriate models of leadership are provided, while existing gaps in the healthcare leadership literature are highlighted.

  18. The evolution of an evaluation: a case study using the tribal participatory research model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Lucinda S; Peterson, Donna J; Betts, Sherry C

    2008-10-01

    This article presents a case study of how the evaluation design for a dating violence prevention and/or youth development program for American Indian youth in Arizona evolved throughout the project. Particular attention is given to how the evaluation design was guided by the tribal participatory research model. A brief rationale for the project is presented along with literature on culturally competent evaluation and research with American Indians. A description of the project and the unique communities in which it was implemented is provided. The focus of the article is the process of how the evaluation plan changed and how various factors influenced this process (e.g., feedback from community stakeholders, conversations with funder, results of process evaluation, suggestions from literature, the authors' experience working in American Indian communities). The authors conclude with lessons learned for others to consider as they develop working relationships and evaluation plans in similar communities.

  19. Vibration analysis diagnostics by continuous-time models: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, Diego J.; Carmen Carnero, Ma.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a forecasting system in condition monitoring is developed based on vibration signals in order to improve the diagnosis of a certain critical equipment at an industrial plant. The system is based on statistical models capable of forecasting the state of the equipment combined with a cost model consisting of defining the time of preventive replacement when the minimum of the expected cost per unit of time is reached in the future. The most relevant features of the system are that (i) it is developed for bivariate signals; (ii) the statistical models are set up in a continuous-time framework, due to the specific nature of the data; and (iii) it has been developed from scratch for a real case study and may be generalised to other pieces of equipment. The system is thoroughly tested on the equipment available, showing its correctness with the data in a statistical sense and its capability of producing sensible results for the condition monitoring programme

  20. Vibration analysis diagnostics by continuous-time models: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, Diego J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: Diego.Pedregal@uclm.es; Carmen Carnero, Ma. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: Carmen.Carnero@uclm.es

    2009-02-15

    In this paper a forecasting system in condition monitoring is developed based on vibration signals in order to improve the diagnosis of a certain critical equipment at an industrial plant. The system is based on statistical models capable of forecasting the state of the equipment combined with a cost model consisting of defining the time of preventive replacement when the minimum of the expected cost per unit of time is reached in the future. The most relevant features of the system are that (i) it is developed for bivariate signals; (ii) the statistical models are set up in a continuous-time framework, due to the specific nature of the data; and (iii) it has been developed from scratch for a real case study and may be generalised to other pieces of equipment. The system is thoroughly tested on the equipment available, showing its correctness with the data in a statistical sense and its capability of producing sensible results for the condition monitoring programme.

  1. Novel Formulation of Adaptive MPC as EKF Using ANN Model: Multiproduct Semibatch Polymerization Reactor Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, Kalipatnapu Yamuna

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, a novel formulation for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed incorporating the extended Kalman filter (EKF) control concept using a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model based on measurements for supervisory control. The proposed scheme consists of two modules focusing on online parameter estimation based on past measurements and control estimation over control horizon based on minimizing the deviation of model output predictions from set points along the prediction horizon. An industrial case study for temperature control of a multiproduct semibatch polymerization reactor posed as a challenge problem has been considered as a test bed to apply the proposed ANN-EKFMPC strategy at supervisory level as a cascade control configuration along with proportional integral controller [ANN-EKFMPC with PI (ANN-EKFMPC-PI)]. The proposed approach is formulated incorporating all aspects of MPC including move suppression factor for control effort minimization and constraint-handling capability including terminal constraints. The nominal stability analysis and offset-free tracking capabilities of the proposed controller are proved. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with a standard MPC-based cascade control approach using the same adaptive ANN model. The ANN-EKFMPC-PI control configuration has shown better controller performance in terms of temperature tracking, smoother input profiles, as well as constraint-handling ability compared with the ANN-MPC with PI approach for two products in summer and winter. The proposed scheme is found to be versatile although it is based on a purely data-driven model with online parameter estimation.

  2. Hydrodynamic modelling and global datasets: Flow connectivity and SRTM data, a Bangkok case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. B.; Michaelides, K.

    2012-04-01

    The rise in the global interconnected manufacturing supply chains requires an understanding and consistent quantification of flood risk at a global scale. Flood risk is often better quantified (or at least more precisely defined) in regions where there has been an investment in comprehensive topographical data collection such as LiDAR coupled with detailed hydrodynamic modelling. Yet in regions where these data and modelling are unavailable, the implications of flooding and the knock on effects for global industries can be dramatic, as evidenced by the recent floods in Bangkok, Thailand. There is a growing momentum in terms of global modelling initiatives to address this lack of a consistent understanding of flood risk and they will rely heavily on the application of available global datasets relevant to hydrodynamic modelling, such as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and its derivatives. These global datasets bring opportunities to apply consistent methodologies on an automated basis in all regions, while the use of coarser scale datasets also brings many challenges such as sub-grid process representation and downscaled hydrology data from global climate models. There are significant opportunities for hydrological science in helping define new, realistic and physically based methodologies that can be applied globally as well as the possibility of gaining new insights into flood risk through analysis of the many large datasets that will be derived from this work. We use Bangkok as a case study to explore some of the issues related to using these available global datasets for hydrodynamic modelling, with particular focus on using SRTM data to represent topography. Research has shown that flow connectivity on the floodplain is an important component in the dynamics of flood flows on to and off the floodplain, and indeed within different areas of the floodplain. A lack of representation of flow connectivity, often due to data resolution limitations, means

  3. Promoting Profit Model Innovation in Animation Project in Northeast Asia: Case Study on Chinese Cultural and Creative Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Hao Jiao; Yupei Wang; Hongjun Xiao; Jianghua Zhou; Wensi Zeng

    2017-01-01

    Building on a case study of three animation companies in the Chinese cultural and creative industry, this study aims to understand how profit model innovation is promoted. Due to the rapidly changing environments and resource scarcity, cultural and creative companies need to select the appropriate profit model according to their own key resources. The study uncovers two critical factors that promote profit model innovation in animation projects: the quantity of consumers and their consumption...

  4. REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

    2016-05-01

    Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Case Study: Teaching Nature of Science through Scientific Models--The Geocentric vs. Heliocentric Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Matthew; Rogers, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In the nonmajor science classroom, case studies--when used as learning tools--should help students build the necessary framework to understand the nature of science. For most students, the nonmajor science course (in this case, Astronomy 101) may be the last time that they interact with science in a formal learning setting. A National Science…

  6. Three dimensional modeling of depositional geometries. A case study from Tofane Group (Dolomites, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattolin, G.; Franceschi, M.; Breda, A.; Teza, G.; Preto, N.

    2012-04-01

    At the end of the Early Carnian, the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE) resulted in a major crisis of carbonate factories. The sharp change in carbonate production lead to a dramatic modifications in depositional geometries. Steep clinoforms of the high-relief pre-crisis carbonate platforms were replaced by low-angle ramps. Spatial characters of depositional geometries can be decisive in identifying the genesis of geological bodies. We here show how 3D modeling techniques can be applied to help in quantifying and highlighting their variations. As case study we considered two outcrops in the Tofane Group (Dolomites, Italy). The first outcrop (bottom of southern walls of Tofana di Rozes) exposes a platform-to-basin transect of pre- and post-crisis platforms, the second (Dibona hut) a clinostratified carbonate body deposited during the Carnian crisis. Outcrop conditions at both sites, with vertical and hardly accessible walls, make the field tracing of depositional geometries particularly challenging. Line drawing on high resolution pictures can help (e.g. for clinoforms), but its use for quantification is hampered by perspective deformation. Three dimensional acquisition and modeling allow to retrieve the true spatial characters of sedimentary bodies in these outcrops. The geometry of the carbonate body at Dibona (~ 15000 sqm) was acquired with terrestrial LiDAR, while for Tofana photogrammetric techniques were applied because of the extension of the outcrop itself (~ 240000 sqm) and the lack of suitable points of view for terrestrial laser scanning. At Tofana, field observations reveal the presence of tens-hundreds m large carbonate mounds grown on a pre-existing inclined surface, intercalated with skeletal carbonates and siltites-arenites. This system rapidly evolves into a carbonate-clastic ramp. Photogrammetric topography acquisition permitted to place and visualize geological features in a three dimensional frame, thus obtaining a conceptual sedimentological model. A 3

  7. Premium analysis for copula model: A case study for Malaysian motor insurance claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resti, Yulia; Ismail, Noriszura; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

    2014-06-01

    This study performs premium analysis for copula models with regression marginals. For illustration purpose, the copula models are fitted to the Malaysian motor insurance claims data. In this study, we consider copula models from Archimedean and Elliptical families, and marginal distributions of Gamma and Inverse Gaussian regression models. The simulated results from independent model, which is obtained from fitting regression models separately to each claim category, and dependent model, which is obtained from fitting copula models to all claim categories, are compared. The results show that the dependent model using Frank copula is the best model since the risk premiums estimated under this model are closely approximate to the actual claims experience relative to the other copula models.

  8. The composite supply chain efficiency model: A case study of the Sishen-Saldanha supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila L. Goedhals-Gerber

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As South Africa strives to be a major force in global markets, it is essential that South African supply chains achieve and maintain a competitive advantage. One approach to achieving this is to ensure that South African supply chains maximise their levels of efficiency. Consequently, the efficiency levels of South Africa’s supply chains must be evaluated. The objective of this article is to propose a model that can assist South African industries in becoming internationally competitive by providing them with a tool for evaluating their levels of efficiency both as individual firms and as a component in an overall supply chain. The Composite Supply Chain Efficiency Model (CSCEM was developed to measure supply chain efficiency across supply chains using variables identified as problem areas experienced by South African supply chains. The CSCEM is tested in this article using the Sishen-Saldanda iron ore supply chain as a case study. The results indicate that all three links or nodes along the Sishen-Saldanha iron ore supply chain performed well. The average efficiency of the rail leg was 97.34%, while the average efficiency of the mine and the port were 97% and 95.44%, respectively. The results also show that the CSCEM can be used by South African firms to measure their levels of supply chain efficiency. This article concludes with the benefits of the CSCEM.

  9. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  10. Testing the Market Model – A Case Study of Fondul Proprietatea (FP)

    OpenAIRE

    Sorin Claudiu Radu

    2014-01-01

    The financial theory related to the bond portfolio analysis was coined by Harry Markowitz, an authentic’ pioneer of the modern bond theory’, and his well-thought interpretation of the bond selection model may be found in his research papers “Portfolio Selection” (Markowitz M. Harry, 1952) and “Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments” (Markowitz M. Harry 1960). This paper is proposed to test the market model in the Romanian stock market, case of Property Fund.

  11. Study on Regional Agro-ecological Risk and Pressure Supported by City Expansion Model and SERA Model - A Case Study of Selangor, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Shi , Xiaoxia; Zhang , Yaoli; Peng , Cheng

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This study revealed the influence of city expansion on the agro-ecological risks through the analysis and prediction of city expansion in different periods and study on the change of risk and pressure on the regional agricultural eco-environment. The city expansion of Selangor, Malaysia (as a case) was predicted based on relevant spatial and attribute data as well as simulation prediction models of city expansion. Subsequently, the ecological risk and pressure in the s...

  12. Assessing Regional Sustainability Using a Model of Coordinated Development Index: A Case Study of Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Yang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available From a holistic view, this paper addresses a perspective of coordinated development of economy, society, and environment for regional sustainability assessment. Firstly, a comprehensive indicator system for co-evaluating the level of economic, social, and environmental subsystems is presented based on a holistic understanding of regional sustainability. Then, a coordinated development index model focusing on the level of coordination among the subsystems as well as their comprehensive development level is established. Furthermore, an empirical study of all the provinces and municipalities is conducted by collecting the panel data from 2004 to 2010. The result shows that: (1 the coordinated developments of the most developed and the most underdeveloped regions stay stable while the regions with medium development level possess more fluctuant trends during the study years; (2 regional disparities are indicated according to the grading of CDI (the coordinated development index, which are further analyzed to be related to the local economic development patterns; (3 the conditions and causes of economic, social, and environmental development in real situations under different grades of CDI are discussed through detailed case studies of typical regions, which indicate specific suggestions of sustainable development for regions in the same pattern.

  13. A professional learning community model: a case study of primary teachers community in west Bandung

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, A.; Suryadi, D.; Syaodih, E.

    2018-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide an alternative model of professional learning community for primary school teachers in improving the knowledge and professional skills. This study is a qualitative research with case study method with data collection is an interview, observation and document and triangulation technique for validation data that focuses on thirteen people 5th grade elementary school teacher. The results showed that by joining a professional learning community, teachers can share both experience and knowledge to other colleagues so that they can be able to continue to improve and enhance the quality of their learning. This happens because of the reflection done together before, during and after the learning activities. It was also revealed that by learning in a professional learning community, teachers can learn in their own way, according to need, and can collaborate with their colleagues in improving the effectiveness of learning. Based on the implementation of professional learning community primary school teachers can be concluded that teachers can develop the curriculum, the students understand the development, overcome learning difficulties faced by students and can make learning design more effective and efficient.

  14. A case study testing the cavity mode model of the magnetosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Sarafopoulos

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on a case study we test the cavity mode model of the magnetosphere, looking for eigenfrequencies via multi-satellite and multi-instrument measurements. Geotail and ACE provide information on the interplanetary medium that dictates the input parameters of the system; the four Cluster satellites monitor the magnetopause surface waves; the POLAR (L=9.4 and LANL 97A (L=6.6 satellites reveal two in-situ monochromatic field line resonances (FLRs with T=6 and 2.5 min, respectively; and the IMAGE ground magnetometers demonstrate latitude dependent delays in signature arrival times, as inferred by Sarafopoulos (2004b. Similar dispersive structures showing systematic delays are also extensively scrutinized by Sarafopoulos (2005 and interpreted as tightly associated with the so-called pseudo-FLRs, which show almost the same observational characteristics with an authentic FLR. In particular for this episode, successive solar wind pressure pulses produce recurring ionosphere twin vortex Hall currents which are identified on the ground as pseudo-FLRs. The BJN ground magnetometer records the pseudo-FLR (alike with the other IMAGE station responses associated with an intense power spectral density ranging from 8 to 12 min and, in addition, two discrete resonant lines with T=3.5 and 7 min. In this case study, even though the magnetosphere is evidently affected by a broad-band compressional wave originated upstream of the bow shock, nevertheless, we do not identify any cavity mode oscillation within the magnetosphere. We fail, also, to identify any of the cavity mode frequencies proposed by Samson (1992.

    Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetosphereionosphere interactions; Solar wind-magnetosphere interactions; MHD waves and instabilities

  15. Productivity of "Collisions Generate Heat" for Reconciling an Energy Model with Mechanistic Reasoning: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherr, Rachel E.; Robertson, Amy D.

    2015-01-01

    We observe teachers in professional development courses about energy constructing mechanistic accounts of energy transformations. We analyze a case in which teachers investigating adiabatic compression develop a model of the transformation of kinetic energy to thermal energy. Among their ideas is the idea that thermal energy is generated as a…

  16. The importance of magnetic methods for soil mapping and process modelling. Case study in Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshov, Oleksandr; Pereira, Paulo; Kruglov, Oleksandr; Sukhorada, Anatoliy

    2016-04-01

    The correct planning of agriculture areas is fundamental for a sustainable future in Ukraine. After the recent political problems in Ukraine, new challenges emerged regarding sustainability questions. At the same time the soil mapping and modelling are intensively developing all over the world (Pereira et al., 2015; Brevik et al., in press). Magnetic susceptibility (MS) methods are low cost and accurate for the developing maps of agricultural areas, fundamental for Ukrain's economy.This allow to colleact a great amount of soil data, usefull for a better understading of the spatial distribution of soil properties. Recently, this method have been applied in other works in Ukraine and elsewhere (Jordanova et al., 2011; Menshov et al., 2015). The objective of this work is to study the spatial distribution of MS and humus content on the topsoils (0-5 cm) in two different areas. The first is located in Poltava region and the second in Kharkiv region. The results showed that MS depends of soil type, topography and anthropogenic influence. For the interpretation of MS spatial distribution in top soil we consider the frequency and time after the last tillage, tilth depth, fertilizing, and the puddling regarding the vehicle model. On average the soil MS of the top soil of these two cases is about 30-70×10-8 m3/kg. In Poltava region not disturbed soil has on average MS values of 40-50×10-8 m3/kg, for Kharkiv region 50-60×10-8 m3/kg. The tilled soil of Poltava region has on average an MS of 60×10-8 m3/kg, and 70×10-8 m3/kg in Kharkiv region. MS is higher in non-tilled soils than in the tilled ones. The correlation between MS and soil humus content is very high ( up to 0.90) in both cases. Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma (in press), doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017 Jordanova D., Jordanova N., Atanasova A., Tsacheva T., Petrov P

  17. A case study on robust optimal experimental design for model calibration of ω-Transaminase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daele, Timothy, Van; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    the experimental space. However, it is expected that more informative experiments can be designed to increase the confidence of the parameter estimates. Therefore, we apply Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to the calibrated model of Shin and Kim (1998). The total number of samples was retained to allow fair......” parameter values are not known before finishing the model calibration. However, it is important that the chosen parameter values are close to the real parameter values, otherwise the OED can possibly yield non-informative experiments. To counter this problem, one can use robust OED. The idea of robust OED......Proper calibration of models describing enzyme kinetics can be quite challenging. This is especially the case for more complex models like transaminase models (Shin and Kim, 1998). The latter fitted model parameters, but the confidence on the parameter estimation was not derived. Hence...

  18. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  19. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  20. Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condom, Thomas; Coudrain, Anne; Dezetter, Alain; Brunstein, Daniel; Delclaux, François; Jean-Emmanuel, Sicart

    2004-09-01

    A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid-month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km2), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km2 and 55 000 km2, respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake-level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5.5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year.

  1. The effect of a loss of model structural detail due to network skeletonization on contamination warning system design: case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

    2018-05-01

    The effect of limitations in the structural detail available in a network model on contamination warning system (CWS) design was examined in case studies using the original and skeletonized network models for two water distribution systems (WDSs). The skeletonized models were used as proxies for incomplete network models. CWS designs were developed by optimizing sensor placements for worst-case and mean-case contamination events. Designs developed using the skeletonized network models were transplanted into the original network model for evaluation. CWS performance was defined as the number of people who ingest more than some quantity of a contaminant in tap water before the CWS detects the presence of contamination. Lack of structural detail in a network model can result in CWS designs that (1) provide considerably less protection against worst-case contamination events than that obtained when a more complete network model is available and (2) yield substantial underestimates of the consequences associated with a contamination event. Nevertheless, CWSs developed using skeletonized network models can provide useful reductions in consequences for contaminants whose effects are not localized near the injection location. Mean-case designs can yield worst-case performances similar to those for worst-case designs when there is uncertainty in the network model. Improvements in network models for WDSs have the potential to yield significant improvements in CWS designs as well as more realistic evaluations of those designs. Although such improvements would be expected to yield improved CWS performance, the expected improvements in CWS performance have not been quantified previously. The results presented here should be useful to those responsible for the design or implementation of CWSs, particularly managers and engineers in water utilities, and encourage the development of improved network models.

  2. Mathematical modeling of human glioma growth based on brain topological structures: study of two clinical cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Suarez

    Full Text Available Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumors and yet almost incurable due mainly to their great invasion capability. This represents a challenge to present clinical oncology. Here, we introduce a mathematical model aiming to improve tumor spreading capability definition. The model consists in a time dependent reaction-diffusion equation in a three-dimensional spatial domain that distinguishes between different brain topological structures. The model uses a series of digitized images from brain slices covering the whole human brain. The Talairach atlas included in the model describes brain structures at different levels. Also, the inclusion of the Brodmann areas allows prediction of the brain functions affected during tumor evolution and the estimation of correlated symptoms. The model is solved numerically using patient-specific parametrization and finite differences. Simulations consider an initial state with cellular proliferation alone (benign tumor, and an advanced state when infiltration starts (malign tumor. Survival time is estimated on the basis of tumor size and location. The model is used to predict tumor evolution in two clinical cases. In the first case, predictions show that real infiltrative areas are underestimated by current diagnostic imaging. In the second case, tumor spreading predictions were shown to be more accurate than those derived from previous models in the literature. Our results suggest that the inclusion of differential migration in glioma growth models constitutes another step towards a better prediction of tumor infiltration at the moment of surgical or radiosurgical target definition. Also, the addition of physiological/psychological considerations to classical anatomical models will provide a better and integral understanding of the patient disease at the moment of deciding therapeutic options, taking into account not only survival but also life quality.

  3. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    investigated by satellite images, physical model tests, and one-dimensional numerical models. The current study uses a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical beach evolution model, developed based on existing methodologies. This model is mainly composed of four main submodels: a phase-averaged spectral wave......This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...... transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  4. Competing with the use of business model innovation : an exploratory case study of the journey of born global firms

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Marlene; Abrahamsson, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...

  5. Modeling Irrigation Networks for the Quantification of Potential Energy Recovering: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modesto Pérez-Sánchez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Water irrigation systems are required to provide adequate pressure levels in any sort of network. Quite frequently, this requirement is achieved by using pressure reducing valves (PRVs. Nevertheless, the possibility of using hydraulic machines to recover energy instead of PRVs could reduce the energy footprint of the whole system. In this research, a new methodology is proposed to help water managers quantify the potential energy recovering of an irrigation water network with adequate conditions of topographies distribution. EPANET has been used to create a model based on probabilities of irrigation and flow distribution in real networks. Knowledge of the flows and pressures in the network is necessary to perform an analysis of economic viability. Using the proposed methodology, a case study has been analyzed in a typical Mediterranean region and the potential available energy has been estimated. The study quantifies the theoretical energy recoverable if hydraulic machines were installed in the network. Particularly, the maximum energy potentially recovered in the system has been estimated up to 188.23 MWh/year with a potential saving of non-renewable energy resources (coal and gas of CO2 137.4 t/year.

  6. Inclusive business model in tapioca starch industry in Lake Toba area: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tampubolon, S.; Manik, Y.

    2018-04-01

    The notion of inclusive business calls for additional focus and innovation in the way companies do business which seeks to contribute to poverty alleviation by including Bottom of the Pyramids (BoP) communities within its value chain while not losing sight of the ultimate goal of business. Lake Toba Area has potentials in providing chances for doing businesses. On the other hand, the growth of market size is rather slow and demographically still dominated by BoP. This is a case study which seeks to investigate to what extent the Inclusive Business Model (IBM) is adopted in the strategic planning and applied in the operational management of companies that operate in Lake Toba Area. The study was conducted in qualitative basis. The observation was conducted by gathering data and information through a series of interviews with the top management and desk study of the business plan in a tapioca starch industry in Toba Samosir Regency. The collected data and information were then analyzed qualitatively by comparing them with criteria and parameters of IBM suggested in a vast body of literature. The reference by which the IBM is referred in this study is a series of criteria which is synthesized from a literature review on a vast body of literature about IBM. From data analysis, it is evident that IBM has been incorporated in the strategic plan and applied in the operational activities of the object of this study. However, we also found some rooms for improvement such as expanding the involvement of BoP in their value chain as consumers, by which some innovation in the product diversification is required.

  7. Sub-regional linear programming models in land use analysis: a case study of the Neguev settlement, Costa Rica.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, R.A.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Jansen, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    The paper deals with linear programming as a tool for land use analysis at the sub-regional level. A linear programming model of a case study area, the Neguev settlement in the Atlantic zone of Costa Rica, is presented. The matrix of the model includes five submatrices each encompassing a different

  8. Developing and pretesting case studies in dental and dental hygiene education: using the diffusion of innovations model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cragun, Deborah L; DeBate, Rita DiGioacchino; Severson, Herbert H; Shaw, Tracy; Christiansen, Steve; Koerber, Anne; Tomar, Scott L; Brown, Kelli McCormack; Tedesco, Lisa A; Hendricson, William D

    2012-05-01

    Case-based learning offers exposure to clinical situations that health professions students may not encounter in their training. The purposes of this study were to apply the Diffusion of Innovations conceptual framework to 1) identify characteristics of case studies that would increase their adoption among dental and dental hygiene faculty members and 2) develop and pretest interactive web-based case studies on sensitive oral-systemic health issues. The formative study spanned two phases using mixed methods (Phase 1: eight focus groups and four interviews; Phase 2: ten interviews and satisfaction surveys). Triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data revealed the following positive attributes of the developed case studies: relative advantage of active learning and modeling; compatibility with a variety of courses; observability of case-related knowledge and skills; independent learning; and modifiability for use with other oral-systemic health issues. These positive attributes are expected to increase the likelihood that dental and dental hygiene faculty members will adopt the developed case study once it is available for use. The themes identified in this study could be applied to the development of future case studies and may provide broader insight that might prove useful for exploring differences in case study use across dental and dental hygiene curricula.

  9. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  10. Improving the Teaching of ICT Engineering using Flipped Learning: a personalized model and a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhak Aqqal

    Full Text Available Abstract In recent years, Flipped Classroom started to be used as an effective way of teaching Engineering among various strategies in higher education. However, enabling and using the flipped learning is a complicated task, not a straightforward goal that can be simply achieved through a combination of face-to-face and online activities. It requires a more sophisticated understanding of effective teaching methods to manage the shift from the traditional to the flipped learning and the optimum adaptation of technology as part of this change. Given this challenge, this research work provides a personalized model of the flipped classroom and investigates through a case study in an Engineering School how our approach can be used to improve teaching of Information and Communication Technology (ICT Engineering. It assesses by using empirically data related to the interaction of the various actors at different levels of abstraction, particularly from a gender perspective, the relevance and the impact of the flipped classroom on student learning and achievement in ICT Engineering Education.

  11. Project management case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Kerzner, Harold R

    2013-01-01

    A new edition of the most popular book of project management case studies, expanded to include more than 100 cases plus a ""super case"" on the Iridium Project Case studies are an important part of project management education and training. This Fourth Edition of Harold Kerzner''s Project Management Case Studies features a number of new cases covering value measurement in project management. Also included is the well-received ""super case,"" which covers all aspects of project management and may be used as a capstone for a course. This new edition:Contains 100-plus case studies drawn from re

  12. Low-Carbon Transportation Oriented Urban Spatial Structure: Theory, Model and Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyao Ye

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Optimising the spatial structure of cities to promote low-carbon travel is a primary goal of urban planning and construction innovation in the low-carbon era. There is a need for basic research on the structural characteristics that help to reduce motor traffic, thereby promoting energy conservation. We first review the existing literature on the influence of urban spatial structure on transport carbon dioxide emissions and summarise the influence mechanisms. We then present two low-carbon transportation oriented patterns of urban spatial structure including the traditional walking city and the modern transit metropolis, illustrated by case studies. Furthermore, we propose an improved model Green Transportation System Oriented Development (GTOD, which is an extension of traditional transit-oriented development (TOD and includes the additional features of a walking city and an emphasis on the integration of land use with a green transportation system, consisting of the public transportation and non-auto travel system. A compact urban form, effective mix of land use and appropriate scale of block are the basic structural features of a low-carbon transportation city. However, these features are only effective at promoting low-carbon transportation when integrated with the green traffic systems. Proper integration of the urban structural system with the green space system is also required. The optimal land use/transportation integration strategy is to divide traffic corridors with wedge-shaped green spaces and limit development along the transit corridors. This strategy forms the basis of the proposed urban structural model to promote low-carbon transportation and sustainable urban growth management.

  13. Application Of Decision Tree Approach To Student Selection Model- A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Sudiya, Amby

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the institution is to provide quality education to the students and to improve the quality of managerial decisions. One of the ways to improve the quality of students is to arrange the selection of new students with a more selective. This research takes the case in the selection of new students at Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. One of the university's selection is through filtering administrative selection based on the records of prospective students at the high school without paper testing. Currently, that kind of selection does not yet has a standard model and criteria. Selection is only done by comparing candidate application file, so the subjectivity of assessment is very possible to happen because of the lack standard criteria that can differentiate the quality of students from one another. By applying data mining techniques classification, can be built a model selection for new students which includes criteria to certain standards such as the area of origin, the status of the school, the average value and so on. These criteria are determined by using rules that appear based on the classification of the academic achievement (GPA) of the students in previous years who entered the university through the same way. The decision tree method with C4.5 algorithm is used here. The results show that students are given priority for admission is that meet the following criteria: came from the island of Java, public school, majoring in science, an average value above 75, and have at least one achievement during their study in high school.

  14. Case Study Research Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Widdowson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Commenting on the lack of case studies published in modern psychotherapy publications, the author reviews the strengths of case study methodology and responds to common criticisms, before providing a summary of types of case studies including clinical, experimental and naturalistic. Suggestions are included for developing systematic case studies and brief descriptions are given of a range of research resources relating to outcome and process measures. Examples of a pragmatic case study design and a hermeneutic single-case efficacy design are given and the paper concludes with some ethical considerations and an exhortation to the TA community to engage more widely in case study research.

  15. Mitigation of urban heat stress – a modelling case study for the area of Stuttgart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fallmann, Joachim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2050 the fraction of urban global population will increase to over 69%, which means that around 6.3 billion people are expected to live in urban areas (UN 2011. Cities are the predominant habitation places for humans to live and are vulnerable to extreme weather events aggravating phenomena like heat stress. Finding mitigation strategies to sustain future development is of great importance, given expected influences on human health. In this study, the mesoscale numerical model WRF is used on a regional scale for the urban area of Stuttgart, to simulate the effect of urban planning strategies on dynamical processes affecting urban climate. After comparing two urban parameterisation schemes, a sensitivity study for different scenarios is performed; it shows that a change of the reflective properties of surfaces has the highest impact on near-surface temperatures compared to an increase of urban green areas or a decrease of building density. The Urban Heat Island (UHI describes the temperature difference between urban and rural temperatures; it characterises regional urban climate and is responsible for urban-rural circulation patterns. Applying urban planning measures may decrease the intensity of the UHI in the study area by up to 2 °C by using heat-reflective roof paints or by 1 °C through replacing impervious surfaces by natural vegetation in the urban vicinity – compared to a value of 2.5 °C for the base case. Because of its topographical location in a valley and the overall high temperatures in this region, the area of Stuttgart suffers from heat stress to a comparatively large extent.

  16. Effects of Uncertainties in Hydrological Modelling. A Case Study of a Mountainous Catchment in Southern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin

    2016-04-01

    in the precipitation and temperature input has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Reduced information in precipitation input resulted in a and a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using wrong rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions obtained using a wrong rating curve, the evaluation scores varies depending on the true rating curve. Generally, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for a rating curves giving low variance in streamflow observations. Reduced information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores giving both better and worse scores. This case study shows that estimating the water balance is challenging since both precipitation inputs and streamflow observations have pronounced systematic component in their uncertainties.

  17. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME). Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Musaeus, Peter; Bennedsen, Andreas Brændstrup; Hansen, Janne Saltoft

    2015-01-01

    I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics) ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation) for, hvordan...... kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse...

  18. NASA's TReK Project: A Case Study in Using the Spiral Model of Software Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrix, T. Dean; Schneider, Michelle P.

    1998-01-01

    Software development projects face numerous challenges that threaten their successful completion. Whether it is not enough money, too little time, or a case of "requirements creep" that has turned into a full sprint, projects must meet these challenges or face possible disastrous consequences. A robust, yet flexible process model can provide a mechanism through which software development teams can meet these challenges head on and win. This article describes how the spiral model has been successfully tailored to a specific project and relates some notable results to date.

  19. Model of cholera dissemination using geographic information systems and fuzzy clustering means: case study, Chabahar, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezeshki, Z; Tafazzoli-Shadpour, M; Mansourian, A; Eshrati, B; Omidi, E; Nejadqoli, I

    2012-10-01

    Cholera is spread by drinking water or eating food that is contaminated by bacteria, and is related to climate changes. Several epidemics have occurred in Iran, the most recent of which was in 2005 with 1133 cases and 12 deaths. This study investigated the incidence of cholera over a 10-year period in Chabahar district, a region with one of the highest incidence rates of cholera in Iran. Descriptive retrospective study on data of patients with Eltor and NAG cholera reported to the Iranian Centre of Disease Control between 1997 and 2006. Data on the prevalence of cholera were gathered through a surveillance system, and a spatial database was developed using geographic information systems (GIS) to describe the relation of spatial and climate variables to cholera incidences. Fuzzy clustering (fuzzy C) method and statistical analysis based on logistic regression were used to develop a model of cholera dissemination. The variables were demographic characteristics, specifications of cholera infection, climate conditions and some geographical parameters. The incidence of cholera was found to be significantly related to higher temperature and humidity, lower precipitation, shorter distance to the eastern border of Iran and local health centres, and longer distance to the district health centre. The fuzzy C means algorithm showed that clusters were geographically distributed in distinct regions. In order to plan, manage and monitor any public health programme, GIS provide ideal platforms for the convergence of disease-specific information, analysis and computation of new data for statistical analysis. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Analysis of groundwater discharge with a lumped-parameter model, using a case study from Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdniakov, S. P.; Shestakov, V. M.

    A lumped-parameter model of groundwater balance is proposed that permits an estimate of discharge variability in comparison with the variability of recharge, by taking into account the influence of aquifer parameters. Recharge-discharge relationships are analysed with the model for cases of deterministic and stochastic recharge time-series variations. The model is applied to study the temporal variability of groundwater discharge in a river valley in the territory of Tajikistan, an independent republic in Central Asia. Résumé Un modèle global de bilan d'eau souterraine a été développé pour estimer la variabilité de l'écoulement par rapport à celle de la recharge, en prenant en compte l'influence des paramètres de l'aquifère. Les relations entre recharge et écoulement sont analysées à l'aide du modèle pour des variations des chroniques de recharge soit déterministes, soit stochastiques. Le modèle est appliquéà l'étude de la variabilité temporelle de l'écoulement souterrain vers une rivière, dans le Tadjikistan, une république indépendante d'Asie centrale. Resumen Se propone un modelo de parámetros concentrados para realizar el balance de aguas subterráneas, el cual permite estimar la variabilidad en la descarga con respecto a la variabilidad en la recarga, en función de los parámetros que caracterizan el acuífero. Las relaciones entre recarga y descarga se analizan con el modelo para distintos casos de series temporales de recarga, tanto deterministas como estocásticas. El modelo se aplica al estudio de la variabilidad temporal de la descarga en un valle aluvial de Tadyikistán, una república independiente del Asia Central.

  1. Learning Gene Expression Through Modelling and Argumentation. A Case Study Exploring the Connections Between the Worlds of Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Blanca; Ageitos, Noa; Jiménez-Aleixandre, María Pilar

    2017-12-01

    There is emerging interest on the interactions between modelling and argumentation in specific contexts, such as genetics learning. It has been suggested that modelling might help students understand and argue on genetics. We propose modelling gene expression as a way to learn molecular genetics and diseases with a genetic component. The study is framed in Tiberghien's (2000) two worlds of knowledge, the world of "theories & models" and the world of "objects & events", adding a third component, the world of representations. We seek to examine how modelling and argumentation interact and connect the three worlds of knowledge while modelling gene expression. It is a case study of 10th graders learning about diseases with a genetic component. The research questions are as follows: (1) What argumentative and modelling operations do students enact in the process of modelling gene expression? Specifically, which operations allow connecting the three worlds of knowledge? (2) What are the interactions between modelling and argumentation in modelling gene expression? To what extent do these interactions help students connect the three worlds of knowledge and modelling gene expression? The argumentative operation of using evidence helps students to relate the three worlds of knowledge, enacted in all the connections. It seems to be a relationship among the number of interactions between modelling and argumentation, the connections between world of knowledge and students' capacity to develop a more sophisticated representation. Despite this is a case study, this approach of analysis reveals potentialities for a deeper understanding of learning genetics though scientific practices.

  2. Case Studies of Successful Schoolwide Enrichment Model-Reading (SEM-R) Classroom Implementations. Research Monograph Series. RM10204

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Sally M.; Little, Catherine A.; Fogarty, Elizabeth; Housand, Angela M.; Housand, Brian C.; Sweeny, Sheelah M.; Eckert, Rebecca D.; Muller, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the scaling up of the Schoolwide Enrichment Model in Reading (SEM-R) in 11 elementary and middle schools in geographically diverse sites across the country. Qualitative comparative analysis was used in this study, with multiple data sources compiled into 11 in-depth school case studies…

  3. Cross-Border Collaboration in History among Nordic Students: A Case Study about Creating Innovative ICT Didactic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spante, Maria; Karlsen, Asgjerd Vea; Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Christiansen, Rene B.

    2014-01-01

    Gränsöverskridande Nordisk Undervisning/Utdanelse (GNU, meaning Cross-Border Nordic Education), the larger Nordic project, under which this case study was carried out, aims at developing innovative, cross-border teaching models in different subject domains in elementary school, including mathematics, language, science, social studies and history.…

  4. Parameter and state estimation in a Neisseria meningitidis model: A study case of Niger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowong, S.; Mountaga, L.; Bah, A.; Tewa, J. J.; Kurths, J.

    2016-12-01

    Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of bacterial meningitidis outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East. The availability of yearly reported meningitis cases in the African meningitis belt offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies. In this paper, we propose a method for the estimation of state variables that are not accessible to measurements and an unknown parameter in a Nm model. We suppose that the yearly number of Nm induced mortality and the total population are known inputs, which can be obtained from data, and the yearly number of new Nm cases is the model output. We also suppose that the Nm transmission rate is an unknown parameter. We first show how the recruitment rate into the population can be estimated using real data of the total population and Nm induced mortality. Then, we use an auxiliary system called observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of the original model. This observer does not use the unknown infection transmission rate but only uses the known inputs and the model output. This allows us to estimate unmeasured state variables such as the number of carriers that play an important role in the transmission of the infection and the total number of infected individuals within a human community. Finally, we also provide a simple method to estimate the unknown Nm transmission rate. In order to validate the estimation results, numerical simulations are conducted using real data of Niger.

  5. Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

    2001-05-01

    The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been

  6. A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Lin

    2011-01-01

    This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

  7. Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacy, Marc; Gosakan, Mala; Eckdahl, Angela; Miller, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

  8. Class and Home Problems: Modeling of an Industrial Anaerobic Digester: A Case Study for Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durruty, Ignacio; Ayude, María A.

    2014-01-01

    The case study discussed in this work is used at the chemical reaction engineering course, offered in fifth-year of the chemical engineering undergraduate program at National University of Mar del Plata (UNMdP). A serial-parallel reaction system based on the anaerobic degradation of particulate-containing potato processing wastewater is presented.…

  9. How to model the stability of terraced slopes? The case study of Tresenda (northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camera, Corrado; Apuani, Tiziana; Masetti, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Terraces are very common morphological features all around the Mediterranean Basin. They have been built to adapt the natural morphology of the territory to the development of anthropogenic activities, particularly agriculture. However, the increasing land abandonment during the last century is leading to soil degradation and stability issues, mainly due to lack of maintenance of these peculiar environments. The objective of this study was to develop a coupled hydrologic-stability model to identify possible triggering areas of superficial landslides during intense rainfall events. The model was tested on a slope uphill of the village of Tresenda, in Northern Italy, which experienced several superficial landslides in the last 35 years. Distributed stability analyses are usually carried out using an infinite slope approach, but in the case of terraces some basic assumptions of this method fail: the parallelism between topographical surface and potential sliding surface and the high ratio between slope length and failure surface depth are the most important examples. In addition, the interest is more on the stability of the terrace system (dry stone retaining wall and backfill soil) and not on soil alone. For these reasons, a stability analysis based on the global method of equilibrium is applied and soft coupled to a well know hydrological model (STARWARS). Sections of terrace, one cell wide, are recognized from the base of a wall to the top of the closest downstream one, and each cell (1 x 1 m2) is considered as a slice. The method of Sarma for circular and non-circular failure is applied. The very fine horizontal resolution (1 m) is crucial to take into consideration the hydrogeological and mechanical properties of dry stone walls (0.6-1.0 m wide). A sensitivity analysis was conducted for saturated water content, initial volumetric water content, the cohesion and friction angle of soil and walls and soil depth. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that

  10. A shared frailty model for case-cohort samples: parent and offspring relations in an adoption study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Liselotte; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2010-01-01

    of their biological and adoptive parents were collected with the purpose of studying the association of survival between the adoptee and his/her biological or adoptive parents. Motivated by this study, we explored how to make inference in a shared frailty model for case-cohort data. Our approach was to use inverse......The Danish adoption register contains data on the 12 301 Danish nonfamilial adoptions during 1924-1947. From that register a case-cohort sample was selected consisting of all case adoptees, that is those adoptees dying before age 70 years, and a random sample of 1683 adoptees. The survival data...... probability weighting to account for the sampling in a conditional, shared frailty Poisson model and to use the robust variance estimator proposed by Moger et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:1062-1074).To explore the performance of the estimation procedure, a simulation study was conducted. We studied situations...

  11. Hydrological Modeling in temporary streams: A case study in Pardiela basin, Southern Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    PEDRO, A.; MORAIS, M.; ROSADO, J.; SILVA, H.; SERAFIM, A.; NEVES, R.; BRITO, D.; POTES, M.; SALGADO, R.; LILLEBØ, I.; CHAMBEL, A.

    2011-01-01

    The project “Conservation and rehabilitation strategies for temporary Mediterranean river corridors: a case study on Pardiela basin, southern Portugal (Guadiana basin)", is being carried out,with the collaboration of researchers from diverse scientific areas, in order to increase the knowledge on temporary streams. The project includes different approaches at reach and basin scales, regarding the study of temporal interactions among different ecological components such as climate, morph...

  12. Evaluation and modelling of a potential repository site - Olkiluoto case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Ahokas, H.; Loefman, J.; Pitkaenen, P.; Paulamaeki, S.; Snellman, M.

    1998-01-01

    The observations, interpretations and estimates resulting from site investigations were developed into conceptual bedrock model of the Olkiluoto area. Model development has been an interdisciplinary process and three major iterations have occurred. Geochemical sampling and a programme of electromagnetic and electrical soundings were carried out and interpreted to model occurrences of groundwater types. The parametrisation and modifications needed between geological models and ground-water flow simulation model is discussed. The latest groundwater flow modelling effort comprises the transient flow analysis taking into account the effects of density variations, the repository, post-glacial land uplift and global sea level rise. The main flow modeling result quantities (the amount, direction, velocity and routes as well as concentration of water) are used for evaluation of the investigation sites and of the preconditions for safe final disposal of spent nuclear fuel. Integration of hydrological and hydrogeochemical methods and studies has provided the primary method for investigating the evolution. Testing of flow models with hydro-geochemical information is considered to improve the hydrogeological understanding of a site and increases confidence in conceptual hydrogeological models. Bedrock model allows also comparisons to be made between its time-varying versions. The evolution of fracture frequency, fracture zone structures and hydraulic conductivity has been studied. A prediction-outcome comparison was made in selected boreholes and showed that the rock type was the easiest parameter to predict

  13. A Case Study of the Introductory Psychology Blended Learning Model at McMaster University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph A. Kim

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a brief review of blended learning as a didactic method, and discusses the issues and challenges of using blended learning models in post-secondary education. Blended learning refers to mixed modes of instruction that combine traditional face-to-face classroom teaching methods and online learning materials. The paper will address challenges faced by large classrooms with a diverse student body, and the ways blended learning models can help alleviate those concerns (i.e. technologically savvy students, the need for course scheduling flexibility. In addition, a case study of blended learning in higher education in the context of a unique first year Introductory Psychology program at McMaster University will be discussed. Lastly, the important learning benefits offered by blended learning systems, along with the potential barriers to their implementation will be addressed.Cet article présente un bref compte rendu de l’apprentissage hybride en tant que méthode didactique. Il traite des problèmes et des enjeux relatifs à l’utilisation des modèles d’apprentissage hybride dans le domaine de l’enseignement postsecondaire. L’apprentissage hybride renvoie aux modes d’enseignement mixtes qui combinent les méthodes d’enseignement traditionnel en présentiel et l’accès à des documents d’apprentissage en ligne. L’article traite des difficultés rencontrées dans les grands groupes comprenant une diversité d’étudiants et des façons dont les modèles d’apprentissage hybride peuvent contribuer à atténuer ces préoccupations (c.-à-d. les étudiants calés en technologie, la nécessité d’une offre de cours souple. De plus, l’article traite d’une étude de cas sur l’apprentissage hybride dans l’enseignement supérieur dans le cadre de la première année d’un programme d’introduction à la psychologie à l’Université McMaster. Enfin, l’article aborde les importants avantages offerts par

  14. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  15. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  16. Requirements Modeling with the Aspect-oriented User Requirements Notation (AoURN): A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mussbacher, Gunter; Amyot, Daniel; Araújo, João; Moreira, Ana

    The User Requirements Notation (URN) is a recent ITU-T standard that supports requirements engineering activities. The Aspect-oriented URN (AoURN) adds aspect-oriented concepts to URN, creating a unified framework that allows for scenario-based, goal-oriented, and aspect-oriented modeling. AoURN is applied to the car crash crisis management system (CCCMS), modeling its functional and non-functional requirements (NFRs). AoURN generally models all use cases, NFRs, and stakeholders as individual concerns and provides general guidelines for concern identification. AoURN handles interactions between concerns, capturing their dependencies and conflicts as well as the resolutions. We present a qualitative comparison of aspect-oriented techniques for scenario-based and goal-oriented requirements engineering. An evaluation carried out based on the metrics adapted from literature and a task-based evaluation suggest that AoURN models are more scalable than URN models and exhibit better modularity, reusability, and maintainability.

  17. Landscape modelling case studies for Olkiluoto site in 2005-2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broed, R.

    2007-05-01

    This report documents the landscape modelling test cases implemented in the fall of 2005, complemented in 2006. The objective of the report is to illustrate the application of the landscape modelling methodology, to investigate the important factors of influence and to clarify methodological aspects. The results of this analysis are intended to serve as a basis for future assessments. Landscape modelling represents an approach for estimating doses to inhabitants of a landscape consisting of several interacting ecosystems which are affected by the contamination from potential radionuclide releases from a deep geological repository. From the model outputs, Landscape Dose Conversion Factors (LDFs) are calculated. These represent, for each radionuclide of concern, an estimate of the equilibrium dose arising from a constant unit release of activity into the landscape objects. Modelling is undertaken in the current report for static landscapes corresponding to future landscape configurations forecasted for four different points in time. The results of this modelling are not yet suitable for practical application to estimate doses which could result from the planned repository at the Olkiluoto site. To suit this eventual purpose, refinements of the modelling and reduced uncertainty of the important parameters used in the models will be necessary. The current report intends rather to investigate the important factors influencing modelled future doses arising from the planned repository and to clarify methodological aspects. Notwithstanding the restrictions of the current modelling, important conclusions already can be drawn from the results presented in this report. Several methodological aspects are addressed in this report. These are, in particular, the impact of the landscape configurations on the resulting dose estimates, the importance of model parameters and assumptions for the assessment results, the database for radionuclides requiring consideration, the importance

  18. Electronic business model for small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME): a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Karina; Chung, Walter W.

    2001-10-01

    This paper identifies three essential factors (information infrastructure, executive information system and a new manufacturing paradigm) that are used to support the development of a new business model for competitiveness. They facilitate changes in organization structure in support of business transformation. A SME can source a good manufacturing practice using a model of academic-university collaboration to gain competitive advantage in the e-business world. The collaboration facilitates the change agents to use information systems development as a vehicle to increase the capability of executives in using information and knowledge management to gain higher responsiveness and customer satisfaction. The case company is used to illustrate the application of a web-based executive information system to interface internal communications with external operation. It explains where a good manufacturing practice may be re-applied by other SMEs to acquire skills as a learning organization grows in an extended enterprise setting.

  19. A case study: the evolution of a "facilitator model" liaison program in an academic medical library.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossno, Jon E; DeShay, Claudia H; Huslig, Mary Ann; Mayo, Helen G; Patridge, Emily F

    2012-07-01

    What type of liaison program would best utilize both librarians and other library staff to effectively promote library services and resources to campus departments? The case is an academic medical center library serving a large, diverse campus. The library implemented a "facilitator model" program to provide personalized service to targeted clients that allowed for maximum staff participation with limited subject familiarity. To determine success, details of liaison-contact interactions and results of liaison and department surveys were reviewed. Liaisons successfully recorded 595 interactions during the program's first 10 months of existence. A significant majority of departmental contact persons (82.5%) indicated they were aware of the liaison program, and 75% indicated they preferred email communication. The "facilitator model" provides a well-defined structure for assigning liaisons to departments or groups; however, training is essential to ensure that liaisons are able to communicate effectively with their clients.

  20. Backward Bifurcation in a Cholera Model: A Case Study of Outbreak in Zimbabwe and Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sandeep; Kumari, Nitu

    In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when R0 cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when R0 > 1. The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study.

  1. A qualitative model for strategic analysis of organizations. Application and alternative proposal on a study case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Ferro Moreno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The strategic analysis of organizations is based on the internal and external environments, in order to identify positive and negative variables and factors. The interrelation and timing of these strategic forces are essential to create alternative solutions that tend to achieve the organizational objectives.The normative prospective has theorical and methodological foundations to create a desired future and from it, be able to identify impelling and restraining forces that have influence on the particular problematic situation (go from the current situation to a better one in a certain time.The aim of this article is to analyze on a strategic way a real case with a normative-prospective model that considers the temporal dynamics of the factors impact and variables in time allowing to suggest alternative solutions.Semi-structured interviews were performed with all the employees of this case and structured observations and workshops with the commercial and general management.In consequence, with the results, the desired, current and improved situations were built. Additionally, forces were identified classified and appreciated and lastly solutions were suggested. With the proposed prospective method, alternative solutions could be constructed in order to settle temporary organizational objectives. No constraints were found to use the current method in other cases.Keywords: Strategic forces, Normative prospective, Problematic situations, Strategies

  2. DOE ZERH Case Study: Charles Thomas Homes, Anna Model, Omaha, NE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2015-09-01

    Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in the cold climate that got a HERS 48 without PV, with 2x6 24” on center walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, ocsf at rim joists, basement with plus 2x4 stud walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, with R-20 around slab, R-38 under slab; a vented attic with R-100 blown cellulose; 95% AFUE furnace, 14 SEER AC, ERV; heat pump water heater.

  3. Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khademian, Amir; Abdollahipour, Hamed; Bagherpour, Raheb; Faramarzi, Lohrasb

    2017-10-01

    In addition to the numerous planning and executive challenges, underground excavation in urban areas is always followed by certain destructive effects especially on the ground surface; ground settlement is the most important of these effects for which estimation there exist different empirical, analytical and numerical methods. Since geotechnical models are associated with considerable model uncertainty, this study characterized the model uncertainty of settlement estimation models through a systematic comparison between model predictions and past performance data derived from instrumentation. To do so, the amount of surface settlement induced by excavation of the Qom subway tunnel was estimated via empirical (Peck), analytical (Loganathan and Poulos) and numerical (FDM) methods; the resulting maximum settlement value of each model were 1.86, 2.02 and 1.52 cm, respectively. The comparison of these predicted amounts with the actual data from instrumentation was employed to specify the uncertainty of each model. The numerical model outcomes, with a relative error of 3.8%, best matched the reality and the analytical method, with a relative error of 27.8%, yielded the highest level of model uncertainty.

  4. Assessing the accuracy of a simplified building energy simulation model using BESTEST : the case study of Brazilian regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melo, A.P.; Cóstola, D.; Lamberts, R.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports the use of an internationally recognized validation and diagnostics procedure to test the fidelity of a simplified calculation method. The case study is the simplified model for calculation of energy performance of building envelopes, introduced by the Brazilian regulation for

  5. Training Post-9/11 Police Officers with a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training Model: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative holistic multiple-case study was to identify the optimal theoretical approach for a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training (CTRBT) model to train post-9/11 police officers to perform effectively in their counter-terrorism assignments. Post-9/11 police officers assigned to counter-terrorism duties are not trained…

  6. Improving uncertainty evaluation of process models by using pedigree analysis. A case study on CO2 capture with monoethanolamine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spek, Mijndert; Ramirez, Andrea; Faaij, André

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to improve uncertainty evaluation of process models by combining a quantitative uncertainty evaluation method (data validation) with a qualitative uncertainty evaluation method (pedigree analysis). The approach is tested on a case study of monoethanolamine based postcombustion CO2

  7. Developing and Using a Logic Model for Evaluation and Assessment of University Student Affairs Programming: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation addresses theory and practice of evaluation and assessment in university student affairs, by applying logic modeling/program theory to a case study. I intend to add knowledge to ongoing dialogue among evaluation scholars and practitioners on student affairs program planning and improvement as integral considerations that serve…

  8. A Case Study: The Implementation of a Problem-Solving Model with a Student with Reading Difficulties in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozmen, E. Ruya; Doganay-Bilgi, Arzu

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this case study was to improve the reading accuracy and reading comprehension of a 10-year-old fourth-grade female student with reading difficulties. For that purpose, the problem- solving model was implemented in four stages. These stages included problem identification, problem analysis, intervention, and evaluation. During the…

  9. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  10. Case Studies of Community-Academic Partnerships Established Using the Give-Get Grid Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behringer, Bruce; Southerland, Jodi L; Plummer, Robert M

    2017-11-01

    While partnerships for health delivery and improvement are frequently described by their structure, goals, and plans, less attention is paid to the interactive relationships among partners or for larger stakeholder groups' coalition memberships. The Give-Get Grid group process tool can be used to assess each stakeholders' expected benefits ("gets") and contributions ("gives") needed to establish and maintain long-term, mutually advantageous community-academic partnerships. This article describes three case study experiences using the Give-Get Grid in real-world context to understand and generate ideas to address contemporary health promotion opportunities among a variety of stakeholders. The case studies address three distinct community health promotion opportunities: prevention of school-based adolescent obesity disparities, higher education health professions training programs in rural community-based settings, and methods for engaging community coalitions in state Comprehensive Cancer Control Programs. The case studies demonstrate the Give-Get Grid's utility in both planning and evaluating partnerships and documenting key elements for progress in health promotion initiatives built on long-term community-academic relationships. Steps are explained with practical lessons learned in using the Grid.

  11. Numerical model for mapping of complex hydrogeological conditions: the Chmielnik area (South Poland) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buszta, Kamila; Szklarczyk, Tadeusz; Malina, Grzegorz

    2017-04-01

    Detailed analysis of hydrogeological conditions at a study area is the basis for characterising adjacent groundwater circulation systems. It is also an essential element during executing hydrogeological documentations. The goal of this work was to reconstruct on a numerical model natural groundwater circulation systems of the studied area located within the municipality of Chmielnik in the region of Kielce (South Poland). The area is characterized by a complex geological structure, which along with the existing hydrographic network, makes the scheme of groundwater circulation complicated and difficult to map on a numerical model. The studied area is situated at the border of three geological units: on the North - the extended portion of the Palaeozoic Swietokrzyskie Mountains (mainly Devonian and Permian), in the center - the S-W part of the Mesozoic Margin of the Swietokrzyskie Mountains, and on the South - a marginal zone of the Carpathian Foredeep. The whole area belongs to the Vistula river basin, and it includes catchments of its left tributaries: the Nida and Czarna Staszowska rivers. Based on the collected field and archival hydrogeological, hydrological and sozological data a conceptual model was built, under which a numerical model of groundwater flow was developed using the specialized software - Visual MODFLOW. The numerical model maps the five-layer groundwater circulation system in conjunction with surface watercourses. Such division reflects appropriately the variability of hydrogeological parameters within the geological structures. Two principal and exploited aquifers comprise: a fractured-porous Neogene and fractured Upper Jurassic formations. The external model borders are based primarily on surface watercourses and locally on watersheds. The modelled area of 130 km2 was divided into square grids of 50 m. The model consists of 275 rows and 277 columns. Each of five layers was simulated with the same number of active blocks. In the construction of

  12. harmonic load modeling: a case study of 33 kv abuja steel mill feeder

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    An in-depth study of the harmonic orders inherent in a power system network is required ... This paper studied the harmonic orders of the 33 kV Abuja Steel Feeder .... models for various industrial and household electrical ..... Malaysia, 2013.

  13. Tourism Village Model Based on Local Indigenous: Case Study of Nongkosawit Tourism Village, Gunungpati, Semarang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniasih; Nihayah, Dyah Maya; Sudibyo, Syafitri Amalia; Winda, Fajri Nur

    2018-02-01

    Officially, Nongkosawit Village has become a tourism village since 2012. However, the economic impact has not been received by the society yet because of inappropriate tourism village model. Therefore, this study aims to find out the best model for the development of Nongkosawit Tourism Village. This research used Analytical Hierarchy Process method. The results of this research shows that the model of tourism village which was suitable to the local indigenous of Nongkosawit Tourism Village was the cultural based tourism village with the percentage of 58%. Therefore, it is necessary to do re-orientation from the natural-based village model into the cultural-based village model by raising and exploring the existing culture through unique and different tourism products.

  14. The Traveling Optical Scanner – Case Study on 3D Shape Models of Ancient Brazilian Skulls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trinderup, Camilla Himmelstrup; Dahl, Vedrana Andersen; Gregersen, Kristian Murphy

    2016-01-01

    , inoffensive and inexpensive 3D scanning modality based on structured light, suitable for capturing the morphology and the appearance of specimens. Benefits of having 3D models are manifold. The 3D models are easy to share among researchers and can be made available to the general public. Advanced...... morphological modelling is possible with accurate description of the specimens provided by the models. Furthermore, performing studies on models reduces the risk of damage to the original specimen. In our work we employ a high resolution structured light scanner for digitalizing a collection of 8500 year old...... human skulls from Brazil. To evaluate the precision of our setup we compare the structured light scan to micro-CT and achieve submillimetre difference. We analyse morphological features of the Brazilian skulls using manual landmarks, but a research goal is to automate this, fully utilize the dense 3D...

  15. NOx trade. Case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jantzen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Some of the questions with respect to the trade of nitrogen oxides that businesses in the Netherlands have to deal with are dealt with: should a business buy or sell rights for NOx emission; which measures must be taken to reduce NOx emission; how much must be invested; and how to deal with uncertainties with regard to prices. Simulations were carried out with the MOSES model to find the answers to those questions. Results of some case studies are presented, focusing on the chemical sector in the Netherlands. Finally, the financial (dis)advantages of NOx trade and the related uncertainties for a single enterprise are discussed [nl

  16. The role of production and teamwork practices in construction safety: a cognitive model and an empirical case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitropoulos, Panagiotis Takis; Cupido, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    In construction, the challenge for researchers and practitioners is to develop work systems (production processes and teams) that can achieve high productivity and high safety at the same time. However, construction accident causation models ignore the role of work practices and teamwork. This study investigates the mechanisms by which production and teamwork practices affect the likelihood of accidents. The paper synthesizes a new model for construction safety based on the cognitive perspective (Fuller's Task-Demand-Capability Interface model, 2005) and then presents an exploratory case study. The case study investigates and compares the work practices of two residential framing crews: a 'High Reliability Crew' (HRC)--that is, a crew with exceptional productivity and safety over several years, and an average performing crew from the same company. The model explains how the production and teamwork practices generate the work situations that workers face (the task demands) and affect the workers ability to cope (capabilities). The case study indicates that the work practices of the HRC directly influence the task demands and match them with the applied capabilities. These practices were guided by the 'principle' of avoiding errors and rework and included work planning and preparation, work distribution, managing the production pressures, and quality and behavior monitoring. The Task Demand-Capability model links construction research to a cognitive model of accident causation and provides a new way to conceptualize safety as an emergent property of the production practices and teamwork processes. The empirical evidence indicates that the crews' work practices and team processes strongly affect the task demands, the applied capabilities, and the match between demands and capabilities. The proposed model and the exploratory case study will guide further discovery of work practices and teamwork processes that can increase both productivity and safety in construction

  17. Fluid prediction using rock modelling and reconnaissance. AVO analysis - A case study from the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osdal, Bard; Granli, John Reidar

    1998-12-31

    Seismic lithology and fluid phase prediction (LFP) is becoming an important part of seismic interpretation, and can contribute significantly to risk reduction prior to drilling. In this presentation there is focused on quantitative interpretation of the amplitudes in a 2-D dataset, with respect to presence of hydrocarbons. Different aspect of the working producer, like data quality (well data and seismic data), rock modelling and seismic modelling will be illustrated. In the present study only one well has been used for calibration and to investigate the seismic response for different fluid and lithology scenarios. The rock modelling included evaluation of seismic parameter effect for different fluid and porosities. 1 ref., 4 figs.

  18. Predicting seizure by modeling synaptic plasticity based on EEG signals - a case study of inherited epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honghui; Su, Jianzhong; Wang, Qingyun; Liu, Yueming; Good, Levi; Pascual, Juan M.

    2018-03-01

    This paper explores the internal dynamical mechanisms of epileptic seizures through quantitative modeling based on full brain electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Our goal is to provide seizure prediction and facilitate treatment for epileptic patients. Motivated by an earlier mathematical model with incorporated synaptic plasticity, we studied the nonlinear dynamics of inherited seizures through a differential equation model. First, driven by a set of clinical inherited electroencephalogram data recorded from a patient with diagnosed Glucose Transporter Deficiency, we developed a dynamic seizure model on a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was reduced in complexity after considering and removing redundancy of each EEG channel. Then we verified that the proposed model produces qualitatively relevant behavior which matches the basic experimental observations of inherited seizure, including synchronization index and frequency. Meanwhile, the rationality of the connectivity structure hypothesis in the modeling process was verified. Further, through varying the threshold condition and excitation strength of synaptic plasticity, we elucidated the effect of synaptic plasticity to our seizure model. Results suggest that synaptic plasticity has great effect on the duration of seizure activities, which support the plausibility of therapeutic interventions for seizure control.

  19. A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei

    2017-05-05

    It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecasting models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.

  20. Mathematical modelling with case studies a differential equations approach using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2011-01-01

    ""The book is written in a very lucid manner, with numerous case studies and examples thoroughly discussed. The material is very well organized, generously illustrated, and delightfully presented. All chapters, except the first one, conclude with scores of nicely designed exercises that can be used for independent study. The book contains enough material to organize a new well-structured one-semester course or to complement the existing one with additional examples and problems and is highly recommended for either purpose""-Zentralblatt MATH, 1168""… The book can be useful for students of math

  1. Presenting Enterprise Architecture Strategies Using Business Model Canvas (Case Study of E-commerce PT Xyz)

    OpenAIRE

    Christini, Chintamy; Rahmad, Basuki

    2015-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) is known as enabler of business. One of the study that align business and IT is enterprise architecture. In this era, one of the business that become a trend the world is electronic commerce (e-commerce). With the suitable enterprise architecture strategies, e-commerce can be improved according to the business and IT condition. This paper represents about study case of an Indonesian e-commerce website which is still unknown by internet users and the SWOT strategy a...

  2. Designing a Model for Knowledge Socialization Using Sociability Processes of Human Resource Management: A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Rezaei, K.; Babaei, M.

    2017-01-01

    This study develops a model for knowledge socialization using sociability processes of human resources through an applied research approach. Two types of participants participated in this study. The first type included academic and industrial experts; the second type included employees and managers of Ansar Bank. Ten experts were asked to identify criteria and weigh the identified criteria. Using simple random sampling, the sample size was estimated at 207. Field and archival studies were use...

  3. Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Jeffrey C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; McKenna, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed

  4. Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: A case study on the Upper Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Jeffrey C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; McKenna, James E.

    2014-11-01

    Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58-1.311, NSE = 0.99-0.97, d = 0.98-0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = -0.10 to -1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed well; the

  5. The evolution of network-based business models illustrated through the case study of an entrepreneurship project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Nielsen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    can gain insight into barriers and enablers relating to different types of loose organisations and how to best manage such relationships and interactions Originality/value: This study adds value to the existing literature by reflecting the dynamics created in the interactions between a business model......-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers......Purpose: Existing frameworks for understanding and analyzing the value configuration and structuring of partnerships in relation such network-based business models are found to be inferior. The purpose of this paper is therefore to broaden our understanding of how business models may change over...

  6. Productivity of "collisions generate heat" for reconciling an energy model with mechanistic reasoning: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherr, Rachel E.; Robertson, Amy D.

    2015-06-01

    We observe teachers in professional development courses about energy constructing mechanistic accounts of energy transformations. We analyze a case in which teachers investigating adiabatic compression develop a model of the transformation of kinetic energy to thermal energy. Among their ideas is the idea that thermal energy is generated as a byproduct of individual particle collisions, which is represented in science education research literature as an obstacle to learning. We demonstrate that in this instructional context, the idea that individual particle collisions generate thermal energy is not an obstacle to learning, but instead is productive: it initiates intellectual progress. Specifically, this idea initiates the reconciliation of the teachers' energy model with mechanistic reasoning about adiabatic compression, and leads to a canonically correct model of the transformation of kinetic energy into thermal energy. We claim that the idea's productivity is influenced by features of our particular instructional context, including the instructional goals of the course, the culture of collaborative sense making, and the use of certain representations of energy.

  7. Landslide susceptibility modeling applying machine learning methods: A case study from Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Li, Yuanyao; Catani, Filippo; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2018-03-01

    Landslide is a common natural hazard and responsible for extensive damage and losses in mountainous areas. In this study, Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study for landslide susceptibility assessment in order to develop effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies. To begin, 202 landslides were identified, including 95 colluvial landslides and 107 rockfalls. Twelve landslide causal factor maps were prepared initially, and the relationship between these factors and each landslide type was analyzed using the information value model. Later, the unimportant factors were selected and eliminated using the information gain ratio technique. The landslide locations were randomly divided into two groups: 70% for training and 30% for verifying. Two machine learning models: the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), and a multivariate statistical model: the logistic regression (LR), were applied for landslide susceptibility modeling (LSM) for each type. The LSM index maps, obtained from combining the assessment results of the two landslide types, were classified into five levels. The performance of the LSMs was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curve and Friedman test. Results show that the elimination of noise-generating factors and the separated modeling of each landslide type have significantly increased the prediction accuracy. The machine learning models outperformed the multivariate statistical model and SVM model was found ideal for the case study area.

  8. Flood Zoning Simulation by HEC-RAS Model (Case Study: Johor River-Kota Tinggi Region)

    OpenAIRE

    ShahiriParsa, Ahmad; Heydari, Mohammad; Sadeghian, Mohammad Sadegh; Moharrampour, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    Flooding of rivers has caused many human and financial losses. Hence, studies and research on the nature of the river is inevitable.However, the behavior of rivers hasmany complexities and in this respect, computer models are efficient tools in order to study and simulate the behavior of rivers with the least possible cost. In this paper, one-dimensional model HEC-RAS was used to simulate the flood zoning in the Kota Tinggi district in Johor state. Implementation processes of the zoning on ca...

  9. 451 Case studies Cardiac

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Marinda

    Case Studies. 29 ... A case of a 26-year-old ASA I physical status male undergoing septoplasty had an abrupt ... myocardial infarction, severe hypertensive crisis, cerebral .... or no formal management is required in an ASA I patient.8 One.

  10. Remote Sensing Data in Wind Velocity Field Modelling: a Case Study from the Sudetes (SW Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jancewicz, Kacper

    2014-06-01

    The phenomena of wind-field deformation above complex (mountainous) terrain is a popular subject of research related to numerical modelling using GIS techniques. This type of modelling requires, as input data, information on terrain roughness and a digital terrain/elevation model. This information may be provided by remote sensing data. Consequently, its accuracy and spatial resolution may affect the results of modelling. This paper represents an attempt to conduct wind-field modelling in the area of the Śnieżnik Massif (Eastern Sudetes). The modelling process was conducted in WindStation 2.0.10 software (using the computable fluid dynamics solver Canyon). Two different elevation models were used: the Global Land Survey Digital Elevation Model (GLS DEM) and Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) Level 2. The terrain roughness raster was generated on the basis of Corine Land Cover 2006 (CLC 2006) data. The output data were post-processed in ArcInfo 9.3.1 software to achieve a high-quality cartographic presentation. Experimental modelling was conducted for situations from 26 November 2011, 25 May 2012, and 26 May 2012, based on a limited number of field measurements and using parameters of the atmosphere boundary layer derived from the aerological surveys provided by the closest meteorological stations. The model was run in a 100-m and 250-m spatial resolution. In order to verify the model's performance, leave-one-out cross-validation was used. The calculated indices allowed for a comparison with results of former studies pertaining to WindStation's performance. The experiment demonstrated very subtle differences between results in using DTED or GLS DEM elevation data. Additionally, CLC 2006 roughness data provided more noticeable improvements in the model's performance, but only in the resolution corresponding to the original roughness data. The best input data configuration resulted in the following mean values of error measure: root mean squared error of velocity

  11. The Energy Services Company (ESCo) as business model for heat entrepreneurship-A case study of North Karelia, Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suhonen, Niko; Okkonen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    Energy Services Companies are widely implemented for improving energy efficiency both in the public sector and industry. The model has also been introduced as a business model for biomass-based heat entrepreneurship. However, the residential sector has been problematic with regard to ESCo adoption and constitutes a minor share of ESCo operations. The barriers, both social and economic, are many. This paper focuses on the application of ESCo as a business model for heat entrepreneurship in Finland. First, we present the ESCo model and a review of the main barriers. Second, we present the modelling with aspects of profitability and risk sharing. Third, we demonstrate the operation in the residential sector by using 26 housing associations as a case study. We simulate the energy investment, profitability of operation, and the sharing of risks between the customer and the ESCo. The results indicate that the ESCo model is challenging in our case area. Low profit levels and the assumed customer's preference for achieving cost savings from the beginning of energy renovation can result in long contract periods tying up the capital. The ESCo model is unattractive in the current business climate, requiring modifications or integration with other maintenance services of housing associations. - Highlights: • We simulate the ESCo business model in a challenging sector of residential heating services. • We provide a detailed and replicable method for ESCo business modelling. • Simulation and conclusions stimulate further ESCo business model development

  12. Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model: A case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhuanglin; Zhang, Honglu; Chien, Steven I-Jy; Wang, Jin; Dong, Chunjiao

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between crash frequency and potential influence factors, the accident data for events occurring on a 50km long expressway in China, including 567 crash records (2006-2008), were collected and analyzed. Both the fixed-length and the homogeneous longitudinal grade methods were applied to divide the study expressway section into segments. A negative binomial (NB) model and a random effect negative binomial (RENB) model were developed to predict crash frequency. The parameters of both models were determined using the maximum likelihood (ML) method, and the mixed stepwise procedure was applied to examine the significance of explanatory variables. Three explanatory variables, including longitudinal grade, road width, and ratio of longitudinal grade and curve radius (RGR), were found as significantly affecting crash frequency. The marginal effects of significant explanatory variables to the crash frequency were analyzed. The model performance was determined by the relative prediction error and the cumulative standardized residual. The results show that the RENB model outperforms the NB model. It was also found that the model performance with the fixed-length segment method is superior to that with the homogeneous longitudinal grade segment method. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  14. Students' perceptions of the flipped classroom model in an engineering course: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baytiyeh, Hoda; Naja, Mohamad K.

    2017-11-01

    The flipped classroom model is an innovative educational trend that has been widely adopted in the social sciences but not engineering education. In this model, an active instructional approach shifts the educational strategy from a teacher- to a student-centred approach. The purpose of this study is to compare the learning outcomes of engineering students attending a flipped-model section of the Dynamics of Structures course with students attending a traditional, lecture-based section of the same course taught by the same instructor. The results confirm previous research showing that test scores in the flipped course sections were slightly higher than traditional sections. Although the improvement in test scores was statistically insignificant, student statements indicated that the flipped model promoted a deeper, broader perspective on learning, facilitated problem-solving strategies and improved critical-thinking abilities, self-confidence and teamwork skills, which are needed for a successful engineering career.

  15. Simulation Modelling Approach to Human Resources Management: Burnout Effect Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Merkac Skok

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Human resources management has become one of the most important leverages in organizations for gaining competitive advantage. However, human resources management is in many occasions prone to nonlinear feedbacks with delayed effect. Burnout effect is one of the problems that are especially often faced by the experts in learning society. Burnout effect occurs because modern society is a fast-moving, achievement-oriented, very competitive and lead to many stressful situations, which individuals cannot handle always. We propose usage of system dynamics methodology in exploration of burnout effect, and its usage in learning of consequences of burnout effect. Several experiments have been conducted and presented which indicate increase and collapse behaviour in case of burnout experience by the individual. Experiments with the model explore the presence of burnout effect in several different situations, with different pace of its manifestations.

  16. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  17. Empirical tests of the Chicago model and the Easterlin hypothesis: a case study of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohbuchi, H

    1982-05-01

    The objective of this discussion is to test the applicability of economic theory of fertility with special reference to postwar Japan and to find a clue for forecasting the future trend of fertility. The theories examined are the "Chicago model" and the "Easterlin hypothesis." The major conclusion common among the leading economic theories of fertility, which have their origin with Gary S. Becker (1960, 1965) and Richard A. Easterlin (1966), is the positive income effect, i.e., that the relationship between income and fertility is positive despite the evidence that higher income families have fewer children and that fertility has declined with economic development. To bridge the gap between theory and fact is the primary purpose of the economic theory of fertility, and each offers a different interpretation for it. The point of the Chicago model, particularly of the household decision making model of the "new home economics," is the mechanism that a positive effect of husband's income growth on fertility is offset by a negative price effect caused by the opportunity cost of wife's time. While the opportunity cost of wife's time is independent of the female wage rate for an unemployed wife, it is directly associated with the wage rate for a gainfully employed wife. Thus, the fertility response to female wages occurs only among families with an employed wife. The primary concern of empirical efforts to test the Chicago model has been with the determination of income and price elasticities. An attempt is made to test the relevance of the Chicago model and the Easterlin hypothesis in explaning the fertility movement in postwar Japan. In case of the Chicago model, the statistical results appeared fairly successful but did not match with the theory. The effect on fertility of a rise in women's real wage (and, therefore in the opportunity cost of mother's time) and of a rise in labor force participation rate of married women of childbearing age in recent years could not

  18. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-01-01

    Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management

  19. Groundwater flow model management and case studies in Emilia-Romagna (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chahoud

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of groundwater modeling to support the planning and management of water resources is a possible goal of a long and detailed course of study and research. The present work concerns some applications carried out within the aquifers of the Emilia-Romagna plain in northern Italy. The main features of the developed and available mathematical models are reported as well as the geological and hydrogeological description of the analyzed aquifers. The main operational choices that have characterized the implementation of all models and their continuous development and updating are discussed. Activity has been focused to maintain active the data stream between the models to improve their functionality along with time to give a basis for models management. Models have been used in different applications which indicate the potential for their use with targeted objectives of planning and management. Two examples at two different scales are given: the first shows the application to the entire aquifer of the Emilia-Romagna region, which has been able to adapt simulations to new groundwater bodies defined in accordance with 2000/60/EC directive, the current regulatory framework for the planning of water resources. This framework provides for the establishment of programs of measures whose level of effectiveness can be estimated with the support of models. The second concerns a more detailed scale model in reference to a specific evaluation of feasibility of an intervention of artificial recharge. The management approach used here is the result of over 10 years development and application and now allows to apply numerical models in a role of systematic service in support of the institutions involved in planning and management of groundwater resources.

  20. A STUDY ON DEFENSE ACQUISITION MODELS WITH AN EMERGING MARKET PERSPECTIVE. THE CASE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Kemal Topcu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With the end of the Cold War, the static environment, characteristic of the bipolar world, has changed quickly into a dynamic and complicated environment with new actors. These changes have also affected the countries’ armed forces and new approaches to procurement/acquisition come into progress. After the Cold War, countries have focused on responding to changing threats with their decreasing defense budgets. In this study, acquisition models and their effects on Turkey’s technology acquisition and defense industry are evaluated. The evaluation is performed based on criteria such as contribution to national economy, customization, acquisition cost, time and risk, life cycle cost, and technology acquisition. Major acquisition models in this study are determined as direct procurement, production under license, joint venture, indigenous development, production via international consortium. Finally, it is observed that the best model is indigenous development while the others will serve as technology acquisition for indigenous development.

  1. A mathematical model for process cycle time - theory and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Tošenovský

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on derivation of a regression model which describes dependence of process cycle time on relevant factors entering the process. The analyzed processes are typical in that the coefficient of variation of times corresponding to a given level of influential factors remains stable if the level of the factors change. The derived model is subsequently applied to real industrial data which show that such a model is suitable for the description of relations. The paper has been published with support of Slovak Ministry of Education project KEGA 3/6411/08 „Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to an university-wide bilingual study programme“.

  2. A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PROCESS CYCLE TIME - THEORY AND CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FILIP TOŠENOVSKÝ

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on derivation of a regression model which describes dependence of process cycle time on relevant factors entering the process. The analyzed processes are typical in that the coefficient of variation of times corresponding to a given level of influential factors remains stable if the level of the factors change. The derived model is subsequently applied to real industrial data which show that such a model is suitable for the description of relations. The paper has been published with support of Slovak Ministry of Education project KEGA 3/6411/08 „Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to an university-wide bilingual study programme“.

  3. Modeling the residual effects and threshold saturation of training: a case study of Olympic swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellard, Philippe; Avalos, Marta; Millet, Gregoire; Lacoste, Lucien; Barale, Frederic; Chatard, Jean-Claude

    2005-02-01

    The aim of this study was to model the residual effects of training on the swimming performance and to compare a model that includes threshold saturation (MM) with the Banister model (BM). Seven Olympic swimmers were studied over a period of 4 +/- 2 years. For 3 training loads (low-intensity w(LIT), high-intensity w(HIT), and strength training w(ST)), 3 residual training effects were determined: short-term (STE) during the taper phase (i.e., 3 weeks before the performance [weeks 0, 1, and 2]), intermediate-term (ITE) during the intensity phase (weeks 3, 4, and 5), and long-term (LTE) during the volume phase (weeks 6, 7, and 8). ITE and LTE were positive for w(HIT) and w(LIT), respectively (p measures indicated that MM compares favorably with BM. Identifying individual training thresholds may help individualize the distribution of training loads.

  4. Radar adjusted data versus modelled precipitation: a case study over Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casaioli

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the European VOLTAIRE project (Fifth Framework Programme, simulations of relatively heavy precipitation events, which occurred over the island of Cyprus, by means of numerical atmospheric models were performed. One of the aims of the project was indeed the comparison of modelled rainfall fields with multi-sensor observations. Thus, for the 5 March 2003 event, the 24-h accumulated precipitation BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM forecast was compared with the available observations reconstructed from ground-based radar data and estimated by rain gauge data. Since radar data may be affected by errors depending on the distance from the radar, these data could be range-adjusted by using other sensors. In this case, the Precipitation Radar aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite was used to adjust the ground-based radar data with a two-parameter scheme. Thus, in this work, two observational fields were employed: the rain gauge gridded analysis and the observational analysis obtained by merging the range-adjusted radar and rain gauge fields. In order to verify the modelled precipitation, both non-parametric skill scores and the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis were applied. Skill score results show some differences when using the two observational fields. CRA results are instead quite in agreement, showing that in general a 0.27° eastward shift optimizes the forecast with respect to the two observational analyses. This result is also supported by a subjective inspection of the shifted forecast field, whose gross features agree with the analysis pattern more than the non-shifted forecast one. However, some open questions, especially regarding the effect of other range adjustment techniques, remain open and need to be addressed in future works.

  5. A model of destination image promotion with a case study of Nanjing, P. R. China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang Li; Hans Vogelsong

    2003-01-01

    Destination image has long been a popular research topic in tourism studies. However, methods used to integrate image in real marketing practice and evaluating the market performance in a systematic way are still puzzling to practitioners. A destination image promotion model is proposed in this paper as an effort to solve the problem. The roles of some major factors...

  6. Stuttering Intervention in Three Service Delivery Models (Direct, Hybrid, and Telepractice): Two Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    VALENTINE, DANIEL T.

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed outcomes in stuttering intervention across three service delivery models: direct, hybrid, and telepractice for two 11-year old children who stutter. The goal of the study was to investigate whether short-term goals were maintained through the telepractice sessions. The Stuttering Severity Instrument, Fourth Edition (SSI-4) was administered to each child before and after each intervention period and weekly fluency samples (percentage of stuttered syllables in a monologue) w...

  7. Competing With the Use of Business Model innovation - an Exploratory Case Study of the Journey of Born Global Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene Johansson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.

  8. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

  9. Hydraulic modeling of flow impact on bridge structures: a case study on Citarum bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    Flood waves because of the rapid catchment response to high intense rainfall, breaches of flood defenses may induce huge impact forces on structures, causing structural damage or even failures. Overflowing stream that passes over the bridge, it means to discharge flood water level is smaller than the capacity of the river flow. In this study, the researches present the methodological approach of flood modeling on bridge structures. The amount of force that obtained because of the hydrostatic pressure received by the bridge at the time of the flood caused the bridge structure disrupted. This paper presents simulation of flow impact on bridge structures with some event flood conditions. Estimating the hydrostatic pressure developed new model components, to quantify the flow impact on structures. Flow parameters applied the model for analyzing, such as discharge, velocity, and water level or head that effect of bridge structures. The simulation will illustrate the capability of bridge structures with some event flood river and observe the behavior of the flow that occurred during the flood. Hydraulic flood modeling use HEC-RAS for simulation. This modeling will describe the impact on bridge structures. Based on the above modelling resulted, in 2008 has flood effect more than other years on the Citarum Bridge, because its flow overflow on the bridge.

  10. Sustainable tourism and harmonious culture: a case study of cultic model at village tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astawa, I. P.; Triyuni, N. N.; Santosa, I. D. M. C.

    2018-01-01

    The research aims to analyze an event model of Culture and Tourism International Camp (Cultic) from two aspects, harmonious culture and sustainable tourism. Currently, Indonesian government promotes village tourism by involving more villagers to achieve village independence in its development. The program has faced various obstacles, such as the eroded local cultures due to the development of a massive and money-oriented tourism with less attention on the environmental damage. One of the offered programs is a green tourism model for an event named Culture and Tourism International Camps - Cultic. The research is conducted in several stages. The first stage is the development of model based on the theoretical study. The second stage is the implementation of the model with 85 participants. The third stage is the evaluation of the model through harmonious culture and sustainable tourism approaches. The data is collected through a direct observation and a questionnaire. The result of qualitative analysis indicates that the developed event model supports the harmonious culture, especially the natural environment. Whereas, the result of quantitative analysis indicates that the participants enjoy the activities, such as green food, material natural, waste management, and ecosystem. Another finding is that the community strongly supports the concept of sustainable tourism.

  11. Forward modeling of tree-ring data: a case study with a global network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenmoser, P. D.; Frank, D.; Brönnimann, S.

    2012-04-01

    Information derived from tree-rings is one of the most powerful tools presently available for studying past climatic variability as well as identifying fundamental relationships between tree-growth and climate. Climate reconstructions are typically performed by extending linear relationships, established during the overlapping period of instrumental and climate proxy archives into the past. Such analyses, however, are limited by methodological assumptions, including stationarity and linearity of the climate-proxy relationship. We investigate climate and tree-ring data using the Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) forward model of tree-ring width formation to examine the relations among actual tree growth and climate (as inferred from the simulated chronologies) to reconstruct past climate variability. The VS-lite model has been shown to produce skill comparable to that achieved using classical dendrochronological statistical modeling techniques when applied on simulations of a network of North American tree-ring chronologies. Although the detailed mechanistic processes such as photosynthesis, storage, or cell processes are not modeled directly, the net effect of the dominating nonlinear climatic controls on tree-growth are implemented into the model by the principle of limiting factors and threshold growth response functions. The VS-lite model requires as inputs only latitude, monthly mean temperature and monthly accumulated precipitation. Hence, this simple, process-based model enables ring-width simulation at any location where monthly climate records exist. In this study, we analyse the growth response of simulated tree-rings to monthly climate conditions obtained from the 20th century reanalysis project back to 1871. These simulated tree-ring chronologies are compared to the climate-driven variability in worldwide observed tree-ring chronologies from the International Tree Ring Database. Results point toward the suitability of the relationship among actual tree

  12. Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lili Wang; Zhonggen Wang; Jingjie Yu; Yichi Zhang; Suzhen Dang

    2018-01-01

    Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrolo...

  13. Applying the High Reliability Health Care Maturity Model to Assess Hospital Performance: A VA Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Jennifer L; Rivard, Peter E; Shin, Marlena H; Rosen, Amy K

    2016-09-01

    The lack of a tool for categorizing and differentiating hospitals according to their high reliability organization (HRO)-related characteristics has hindered progress toward implementing and sustaining evidence-based HRO practices. Hospitals would benefit both from an understanding of the organizational characteristics that support HRO practices and from knowledge about the steps necessary to achieve HRO status to reduce the risk of harm and improve outcomes. The High Reliability Health Care Maturity (HRHCM) model, a model for health care organizations' achievement of high reliability with zero patient harm, incorporates three major domains critical for promoting HROs-Leadership, Safety Culture, and Robust Process Improvement ®. A study was conducted to examine the content validity of the HRHCM model and evaluate whether it can differentiate hospitals' maturity levels for each of the model's components. Staff perceptions of patient safety at six US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals were examined to determine whether all 14 HRHCM components were present and to characterize each hospital's level of organizational maturity. Twelve of the 14 components from the HRHCM model were detected; two additional characteristics emerged that are present in the HRO literature but not represented in the model-teamwork culture and system-focused tools for learning and improvement. Each hospital's level of organizational maturity could be characterized for 9 of the 14 components. The findings suggest the HRHCM model has good content validity and that there is differentiation between hospitals on model components. Additional research is needed to understand how these components can be used to build the infrastructure necessary for reaching high reliability.

  14. Succinate overproduction: A case study of computational strain design using a comprehensive Escherichia coli kinetic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali eKhodayari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational strain design prediction accuracy has been the focus for many recent efforts through the selective integration of kinetic information into metabolic models. In general, kinetic model prediction quality is determined by the range and scope of genetic and/or environmental perturbations used during parameterization. In this effort, we apply the k-OptForce procedure on a kinetic model of E. coli core metabolism constructed using the Ensemble Modeling (EM method and parameterized using multiple mutant strains data under aerobic respiration with glucose as the carbon source. Minimal interventions are identified that improve succinate yield under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions to test the fidelity of model predictions under both genetic and environmental perturbations. Under aerobic condition, k-OptForce identifies interventions that match existing experimental strategies pointing at a number of unexplored flux redirections such as routing glyoxylate flux through the glycerate metabolism to improve succinate yield. Many of the identified interventions rely on the kinetic descriptions and would not be discoverable by a purely stoichiometric description. In contrast, under fermentative (anaerobic conditions, k-OptForce fails to identify key interventions including up-regulation of anaplerotic reactions and elimination of competitive fermentative products. This is due to the fact that the pathways activated under anaerobic conditions were not properly parameterized as only aerobic flux data were used in the model construction. This study shed light on the importance of condition-specific model parameterization and provides insight onto how to augment kinetic models so as to correctly respond to multiple environmental perturbations.

  15. Pricing model for biodiesel feedstock. A case study of Chhattisgarh in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohit, Sanjib; Biswas, Pradip Kumar; Kumar, Rajesh; Goswami, Anandajit

    2010-01-01

    Following the global trend, India declared its biofuel policy in which biodiesel, primarily from jatropha, would meet 20% of the diesel demand beginning with 2011-2012. To promote biofuel, Indian government has announced biodiesel purchase price as well as compulsory blending ratio. But, these measures have not worked to create large scale biodiesel production in India. With this backdrop, this paper highlights about the importance of a sound pricing policy focusing on the entire value chain of biodiesel production. The analysis is based on field level data from Chhattisgarh, the leading state in the production of jatropha. Such a sound pricing policy has to deal with the prices of feedstock, by-products and final product like biodiesel. It would also have to reflect on the business model of production of biodiesel. The simulation exercises in our model shows that the business returns from the production of biodiesel and the minimum support price (MSP) of the feedstock for biodiesel (i.e. jatropha seeds in this case) are sensitive to various parameters like seed yields, technological efficiency, by product and petro-diesel prices. An effective price policy framework has to consider all these factors to create a platform for sustainable biodiesel production in India. (author)

  16. Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeller, K.A.; Nijhawan, S.; Salom-Perez, R.; Potosme, S.H.; Hines, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar (Panthera onca). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6. ??. 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82-100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining 'proportion of area occupied', we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as 'probability of habitat used'. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  18. Modelling hydrological connectivity in burned areas. A case study from South of Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.; López-Vicente, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Overland flow connectivity depends on the spatio-temporal interactions of hydrological and geomorphic processes as well as on the human footprint on the landscape. This study deals with the modelling of hydrological connectivity in a burned area with different levels of fire severity. Namely, the objectives are to: i) characterize and ii) modelling the pre- (PreF) and post-fire (PostF) scenarios, as well as iii) evaluate the effect of the vegetation changes due to the fire and the initial ...

  19. Designing a Model for Knowledge Socialization Using Sociability Processes of Human Resource Management: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rezaei

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a model for knowledge socialization using sociability processes of human resources through an applied research approach. Two types of participants participated in this study. The first type included academic and industrial experts; the second type included employees and managers of Ansar Bank. Ten experts were asked to identify criteria and weigh the identified criteria. Using simple random sampling, the sample size was estimated at 207. Field and archival studies were used to collect data. Validity and reliability of the distributed questionnaire were confirmed by organizational experts. Using theoretical literature and surveying experts, 18 criteria were identified of which 12 criteria (desirable and joyful workplace, management and leadership support in sociability process, training courses, transparency in working relations, team work, organizational trustful climate, job description and job knowledge, tangible incentives, participatory system, informal technique, defined career path, individual values aligned with organizational value were selected by screening for prioritization and analysis. Fuzzy AHP and structural equation modelling based on partial least squares were used for prioritization and weighting. Fuzzy AHP model showed that desirable workplace (0.163, participatory systems and brainstorming (0.149, transparency in working relations (0.114, and informal techniques (0.111 gained the highest weights; finally, PLS model showed that all 12 identified criteria were effective on socialization of knowledge management.

  20. The Model of Community Learning Center Development: A Case Study of PKBM Assolahiyah in West Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdinal Asmin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sustaining community learning center (CLC as a community activity centerby increasing the community capacity and skill to deal with socio-economics challenges is an important focus to ensure the success of CLC. This study was aimed to describe the sustainability elements of CLC development and analyze the policy elements that influence the sustainability of CLC program, particularly in related to CSR program. This study approach was combining a qualitative approach and quantitative approach with analytic decision method which is never conducted in the previous studies on CLC. Data and information were collected through document studies, observations and structured interviews through questionnaires, then they were analyzed using descriptive analysis and interpretive structural modeling (ISM analysis. From ten elements of CLC sustainability were analyzed, the result of study emphasized to the importance of CLC management capacity enhancement in PKBM Assolahiyah. The result was synthesized into a policy model of CLC development through CSR program. The policy model should involve the roles of government, scientist, and non-governmental organization (NGO to strengthen the CLC development

  1. Use of Fixed Effects Models to Analyze Self-Controlled Case Series Data in Vaccine Safety Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Stanley; Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia; Nelson, Jennifer; Glanz, Jason

    2012-04-19

    Conditional Poisson models have been used to analyze vaccine safety data from self-controlled case series (SCCS) design. In this paper, we derived the likelihood function of fixed effects models in analyzing SCCS data and showed that the likelihoods from fixed effects models and conditional Poisson models were proportional. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of time-varying variables including vaccination effect from fixed effects model and conditional Poisson model were equal. We performed a simulation study to compare empirical type I errors, means and standard errors of vaccination effect coefficient, and empirical powers among conditional Poisson models, fixed effects models, and generalized estimating equations (GEE), which has been commonly used for analyzing longitudinal data. Simulation study showed that both fixed effect models and conditional Poisson models generated the same estimates and standard errors for time-varying variables while GEE approach produced different results for some data sets. We also analyzed SCCS data from a vaccine safety study examining the association between measles mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). In analyzing MMR-ITP data, likelihood-based statistical tests were employed to test the impact of time-invariant variable on vaccination effect. In addition a complex semi-parametric model was fitted by simply treating unique event days as indicator variables in the fixed effects model. We conclude that theoretically fixed effects models provide identical MLEs as conditional Poisson models. Because fixed effect models are likelihood based, they have potentials to address methodological issues in vaccine safety studies such as how to identify optimal risk window and how to analyze SCCS data with misclassification of adverse events.

  2. A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

    2018-04-01

    Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring

  3. Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoldascan, Elcin; Kurtaran, Behice; Koyuncu, Melik; Koyuncu, Esra

    2010-04-01

    Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

  4. Traveling magnetospheric convection twin vortices: Another case study, global characteristics, and a model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glassmeier, K.H.; Heppner, C.

    1992-01-01

    A case study of a transient geomagnetic field variation event associated with a traveling magnetospheric convection twin vortex is presented. The characteristics of this event are different from those of other presented cases, as the sense of rotation of the associated ionospheric current system is reversed, that is, it exhibits upward (downward) field-aligned currents in the tailward (dayside) part of the vortex structure. In particular, a clear tailward motion at high latitudes can be deduced from local as well as global magnetic field observations. At low dayside latitudes, magnetic field variations similar to sudden impulse (SI) variations are recorded. Almost simultaneous onset and no westward propagation are observed, too. As possible source mechanisms of such transient events, localized magnetic field reconnection as well as pressure pulses at the dayside magnetopause are discussed. If the switch-on of magnetic reconnection can be regarded as equivalent to an equivalent current flowing against the existing magnetopause current and if this countercurrent is spatially localized, an Alfven wave is generated with downward (upward) field-aligned current flow in the tailward (dayside) par of the wave, as observed for some of the reported transients. However, the SI-like behavior of the event studied in this paper, its reversed sense of rotation, and the vortex associated field-aligned current density excludes such localized magnetic reconnection as a possible source mechanism and argues in favor of the existence of pressure pulses at the magnetopause

  5. Framework for Construction of Multi-scale Models for Biological Wastewater Treatment Processes - Case Study: Autotrophic Nitrogen Conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsgaard, Anna Katrine; Mauricio Iglesias, Miguel; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    In wastewater treatment technologies, employing biofilms or granular biomass, processes might occur at very different spatial and temporal scales. Model development for such systems is typically a tedious, complicated, and time consuming task, which involves selecting appropriate model equations...... for the different scales, making appropriate and simplifying assumptions, connecting them through a defined linking scheme, analyzing and solving the model equations numerically, and performing parameter estimations if necessary. In this study, a structured framework for modeling such systems is developed. It aims...... to support the user at the various steps and to reduce the time it takes to generate a model ready for application. An implementation of the framework is illustrated using a simple case study, which considers treatment of a nitrogen-rich wastewater via nitritation....

  6. Quantifying and Validating Rapid Floodplain Geomorphic Evolution, a Monitoring and Modelling Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R.; Entwistle, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Gravel bed rivers and their associated wider systems present an ideal subject for development and improvement of rapid monitoring tools, with features dynamic enough to evolve within relatively short-term timescales. For detecting and quantifying topographical evolution, UAV based remote sensing has manifested as a reliable, low cost, and accurate means of topographic data collection. Here we present some validated methodologies for detection of geomorphic change at resolutions down to 0.05 m, building on the work of Wheaton et al. (2009) and Milan et al. (2007), to generate mesh based and pointcloud comparison data to produce a reliable picture of topographic evolution. Results are presented for the River Glen, Northumberland, UK. Recent channel avulsion and floodplain interaction, resulting in damage to flood defence structures make this site a particularly suitable case for application of geomorphic change detection methods, with the UAV platform at its centre. We compare multi-temporal, high-resolution point clouds derived from SfM processing, cross referenced with aerial LiDAR data, over a 1.5 km reach of the watercourse. Changes detected included bank erosion, bar and splay deposition, vegetation stripping and incipient channel avulsion. Utilisation of the topographic data for numerical modelling, carried out using CAESAR-Lisflood predicted the avulsion of the main channel, resulting in erosion of and potentially complete circumvention of original channel and flood levees. A subsequent UAV survey highlighted topographic change and reconfiguration of the local sedimentary conveyor as we predicted with preliminary modelling. The combined monitoring and modelling approach has allowed probable future geomorphic configurations to be predicted permitting more informed implementation of channel and floodplain management strategies.

  7. Econometrics Models for Copper Recovery: A Case Study of North Waziristan-Copper Deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Khan, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Fourteen econometrics models have been developed to evaluate the effects of various flotation process variables like, Propyl xanthate (X/sub 1/g/tonne), pH (X/sub 2/,) Sodium Cyanide (X/sub 3/ g/tonne), Sodium sulphide (X/sub 4/ g/tonne), Frother (X/sub 5/ g/tonne), Pulp density (X/sub 6/ w/vol), and Conditioning time (X/sub 7/ minute) on the copper recovery YR North Waziristan-NWFP Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square OLS method has been applied as an analytical technique for regression analysis. It has been concluded in this study that model given in equation 7 is best model among all. This equation shows that with the increase of one unit of X/sub 1/, Y/sub R/ will increase 0.05 units keeping all other variables constant. (author)

  8. Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

    2009-08-01

    This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

  9. Modeling induced polarization effects in helicopter time domain electromagnetic data: Synthetic case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viezzoli, Andrea; Kaminskiy, Vladislav; Fiandaca, Gianluca

    2017-01-01

    constrained multiparametric inversion was evaluated, including recovery of chargeability distributions from shallow and deep targets based on analysis of induced polarization (IP) effects, simulated in airborne TDEM data. Different scenarios were studied, including chargeable targets associated...... processing and the effect of constraints, and a priori information. We have used a 1D layered earth model approximation and lateral constraints. Synthetic simulations were performed for several models and the corresponding Cole-Cole parameters. The possibility to recover these models by means of laterally...... the airborne electromagnetic is most sensitive (e.g., approximately 1 ms), it is possible to recover deep chargeable targets (to depths more than 130 m) in association with high electrical conductivity and in resistive environments. Furthermore, it was found that the recovery of a deep conductor, masked...

  10. Analyzing Phylogenetic Trees with Timed and Probabilistic Model Checking: The Lactose Persistence Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requeno, José Ignacio; Colom, José Manuel

    2014-12-01

    Model checking is a generic verification technique that allows the phylogeneticist to focus on models and specifications instead of on implementation issues. Phylogenetic trees are considered as transition systems over which we interrogate phylogenetic questions written as formulas of temporal logic. Nonetheless, standard logics become insufficient for certain practices of phylogenetic analysis since they do not allow the inclusion of explicit time and probabilities. The aim of this paper is to extend the application of model checking techniques beyond qualitative phylogenetic properties and adapt the existing logical extensions and tools to the field of phylogeny. The introduction of time and probabilities in phylogenetic specifications is motivated by the study of a real example: the analysis of the ratio of lactose intolerance in some populations and the date of appearance of this phenotype.

  11. STUDENT-DEFINED QUALITY BY KANO MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF ENGINEERING STUDENTS IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Wilson Taifa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Engineering Students in India like elsewhere worldwide need well designed classrooms furniture which can enable them to attend lectures without negative impact in the long run. Engineering students from India have not yet been involved in suggesting their requirements for improving the mostly out-dated furniture at their colleges. Among the available improvement techniques, Kano Model is one of the most effective improvement approaches. The main objective of the study was to identify and categorise all the main attributes regarding the classrooms furniture for the purpose of increasing student satisfaction in the long run. Kano Model has been well applied to make an exhaustive list of requirements for redesigning classroom furniture. Cronbach Alpha was computed with the help of SPSS 16.0 for validation purpose and it ranged between 0.8 and 0.9 which is a good internal consistency. Further research can be done by integrating Kano Model with Quality Function Deployment.

  12. Dynamic plantwide modeling, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a pharmaceutical upstream synthesis: Ibuprofen case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montes, Frederico C. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2018-01-01

    A dynamic plantwide model was developed for the synthesis of the Active pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) ibuprofen, following the Hoescht synthesis process. The kinetic parameters, reagents, products and by-products of the different reactions were adapted from literature, and the different process...... operations integrated until the end process, crystallization and isolation of the ibuprofen crystals. The dynamic model simulations were validated against available measurements from literature and then used as enabling tool to analyze the robustness of design space. To this end, sensitivity of the design...... space towards input disturbances and process uncertainties (from physical and model parameters) is studied using Monte Carlo simulations. The results quantify the uncertainty of the quality of product attributes, with particular focus on crystal size distribution and ibuprofen crystalized. The ranking...

  13. REDUCING PROCESS VARIABILITY BY USING DMAIC MODEL: A CASE STUDY IN BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripon Kumar Chakrabortty

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Now-a-day's many leading manufacturing industry have started to practice Six Sigma and Lean manufacturing concepts to boost up their productivity as well as quality of products. In this paper, the Six Sigma approach has been used to reduce process variability of a food processing industry in Bangladesh. DMAIC (Define,Measure, Analyze, Improve, & Control model has been used to implement the Six Sigma Philosophy. Five phases of the model have been structured step by step respectively. Different tools of Total Quality Management, Statistical Quality Control and Lean Manufacturing concepts likely Quality function deployment, P Control chart, Fish-bone diagram, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Pareto analysis have been used in different phases of the DMAIC model. The process variability have been tried to reduce by identify the root cause of defects and reducing it. The ultimate goal of this study is to make the process lean and increase the level of sigma.

  14. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  15. Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models

  16. Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Duner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare.Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations.Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

  17. Development of a railway wagon-track interaction model: Case studies on excited tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Chen, Xianmai; Li, Xuwei; He, Xianglin

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a theoretical framework for modeling the railway wagon-ballast track interactions is presented, in which the dynamic equations of motion of wagon-track systems are constructed by effectively coupling the linear and nonlinear dynamic characteristics of system components. For the linear components, the energy-variational principle is directly used to derive their dynamic matrices, while for the nonlinear components, the dynamic equilibrium method is implemented to deduce the load vectors, based on which a novel railway wagon-ballast track interaction model is developed, and being validated by comparing with the experimental data measured from a heavy haul railway and another advanced model. With this study, extensive contributions in figuring out the critical speed of instability, limits and localizations of track irregularities over derailment accidents are presented by effectively integrating the dynamic simulation model, the track irregularity probabilistic model and time-frequency analysis method. The proposed approaches can provide crucial information to guarantee the running safety and stability of the wagon-track system when considering track geometries and various running speeds.

  18. Modeling the Financial Distress of Microenterprise StartUps Using Support Vector Machines: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Blanco-Oliver

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the leading role that micro-entrepreneurship plays in economic development, and the high failure rate of microenterprise start-ups in their early years, very few studies have designed financial distress models to detect the financial problems of micro-entrepreneurs. Moreover, due to a lack of research, nothing is known about whether non-financial information and nonparametric statistical techniques improve the predictive capacity of these models. Therefore, this paper provides an innovative financial distress model specifically designed for microenterprise startups via support vector machines (SVMs that employs financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic variables. Based on a sample of almost 5,500 micro- entrepreneurs from a Peruvian Microfinance Institution (MFI, our findings show that the introduction of non-financial information related to the zone in which the entrepreneurs live and situate their business, the duration of the MFI-entrepreneur relationship, the number of loans granted by the MFI in the last year, the loan destination, and the opinion of experts on the probability that microenterprise start-ups may experience financial problems, significantly increases the accuracy performance of our financial distress model. Furthermore, the results reveal that the models that use SVMs outperform those which employ traditional logistic regression (LR analysis.

  19. Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Duner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare. Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations. Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

  20. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  1. PIO I-II tendencies case study. Part 1. Mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian TOADER

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, a study is performed from the perspective of giving a method to reduce the conservatism of the well known PIO (Pilot-Induced Oscillation criteria in predicting the susceptibility of an aircraft to this very harmful phenomenon. There are three interacting components of a PIO – the pilot, the vehicle, and the trigger (in fact, the hazard. The study, conceived in two parts, aims to underline the importance of human pilot model involved in analysis. In this first part, it is shown, following classical sources, how the LQG theory of control and estimation is used to obtain a complex model of human pilot. The approach is based on the argument, experimentally proved, that the human behaves “optimally” in some sense, subject to his inherent psychophysical limitations. The validation of such model is accomplished based on the experimental model of a VTOL-type aircraft. Then, the procedure of inserting typical saturation nonlinearities in the open loop transfer function is presented. A second part of the paper will illustrate PIO tendencies evaluation by means of a grapho-analytic method.

  2. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Sørensen, Peter B.

    2011-01-01

    , especially given the vast variety and complexity of nanomaterials and their applications. As an approach to help optimize environmental risk assessments of nanomaterials, we apply the Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model to identify best estimates for worst-case conditions of environmental risks of two case......Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future...... studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C60 in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C60 in these applications as well as demonstrate...

  3. Time-series-based hybrid mathematical modelling method adapted to forecast automotive and medical waste generation: Case study of Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpušenkaitė, Aistė; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the study was to create a hybrid forecasting method that could produce higher accuracy forecasts than previously used 'pure' time series methods. Mentioned methods were already tested with total automotive waste, hazardous automotive waste, and total medical waste generation, but demonstrated at least a 6% error rate in different cases and efforts were made to decrease it even more. Newly developed hybrid models used a random start generation method to incorporate different time-series advantages and it helped to increase the accuracy of forecasts by 3%-4% in hazardous automotive waste and total medical waste generation cases; the new model did not increase the accuracy of total automotive waste generation forecasts. Developed models' abilities to forecast short- and mid-term forecasts were tested using prediction horizon.

  4. Model Design for Personnel Selection with Data Mining Approach (Case Study: A Commerce Bank of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Azar

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The success or failure of an organization has a direct relationship with how its human resources are employed and retained. It is the case that organizations keep large amounts of information and data on entrance evaluations and processes. This information, however, is often left unutilized. Data mining is considered a solution for analyzing these data. This paper is investigating educated and objective methods of data analysis. It follows statistical rules, data mining techniques, and the relationship between entrance evaluation scores and personal and professional variables. These factors are studied in order to determine the assignment and rank of potential employees. The database and personnel information of the a Commerce Bank of Iran (in years of 2005 and 2006 is studied and analyzed as a case study in order to identify the labor factors which are considered effective in job performance. The data mining technique that is used in this project serves as the decision-tree. Rules Derivation has been accomplished by the QUEST, CHAID, C5.0 and CART algorithms. The objective and the appropriate algorithms are determined based on seemingly “irrelevant” components, which the Commerce Bank Human Resources management experts described. Results indicated not taking into account the “performance assessment” variable as the objective. Also this project has identified the following from 26 variables have been investigated, five variables as the effective factors in employee promotion: examination score, interview score, degree, years of experience, and job location. The paper's results led in knowledge that can be practical.

  5. Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

    2014-10-01

    Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  6. Reconstructing exposures from biomarkers using exposure-pharmacokinetic modeling--A case study with carbaryl.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kathleen; Phillips, Martin; Grulke, Christopher; Yoon, Miyoung; Young, Bruce; McDougall, Robin; Leonard, Jeremy; Lu, Jingtao; Lefew, William; Tan, Yu-Mei

    2015-12-01

    Sources of uncertainty involved in exposure reconstruction for short half-life chemicals were characterized using computational models that link external exposures to biomarkers. Using carbaryl as an example, an exposure model, the Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System (CARES), was used to generate time-concentration profiles for 500 virtual individuals exposed to carbaryl. These exposure profiles were used as inputs into a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict urinary biomarker concentrations. These matching dietary intake levels and biomarker concentrations were used to (1) compare three reverse dosimetry approaches based on their ability to predict the central tendency of the intake dose distribution; and (2) identify parameters necessary for a more accurate exposure reconstruction. This study illustrates the trade-offs between using non-iterative reverse dosimetry methods that are fast, less precise and iterative methods that are slow, more precise. This study also intimates the necessity of including urine flow rate and elapsed time between last dose and urine sampling as part of the biomarker sampling collection for better interpretation of urinary biomarker data of short biological half-life chemicals. Resolution of these critical data gaps can allow exposure reconstruction methods to better predict population-level intake doses from large biomonitoring studies. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  8. [Adaptability of APSIM model in Southwestern China: A case study of winter wheat in Chongqing City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Tong; Wang, Jing; He, Di; Zhang, Jian-ping; Wang, Na

    2015-04-01

    Field experimental data of winter wheat and parallel daily meteorological data at four typical stations in Chongqing City were used to calibrate and validate APSIM-wheat model and determine the genetic parameters for 12 varieties of winter wheat. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the simulated and observed growth periods from sowing to emergence, flowering and maturity of wheat. Root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between simulated and observed emergence, flowering and maturity were 0-3, 1-8, and 0-8 d, respectively. Normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSEs) between simulated and observed above-ground biomass for 12 study varieties were less than 30%. NRMSE between simulated and observed yields for 10 varieties out of 12 study varieties were less than 30%. APSIM-wheat model performed well in simulating phenology, aboveground biomass and yield of winter wheat in Chongqing City, which could provide a foundational support for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat production in the study area based on the model.

  9. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H; Ebel, A; Franzkowiak, V; Hendricks, J; Lippert, E; Moellhoff, M [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1998-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  10. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  11. A combined disease management and process modeling approach for assessing and improving care processes: a fall management case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Marjan; Westerhof, Richard; Eslami, Saied; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-10-01

    To propose a combined disease management and process modeling approach for evaluating and improving care processes, and demonstrate its usability and usefulness in a real-world fall management case study. We identified essential disease management related concepts and mapped them into explicit questions meant to expose areas for improvement in the respective care processes. We applied the disease management oriented questions to a process model of a comprehensive real world fall prevention and treatment program covering primary and secondary care. We relied on interviews and observations to complete the process models, which were captured in UML activity diagrams. A preliminary evaluation of the usability of our approach by gauging the experience of the modeler and an external validator was conducted, and the usefulness of the method was evaluated by gathering feedback from stakeholders at an invitational conference of 75 attendees. The process model of the fall management program was organized around the clinical tasks of case finding, risk profiling, decision making, coordination and interventions. Applying the disease management questions to the process models exposed weaknesses in the process including: absence of program ownership, under-detection of falls in primary care, and lack of efficient communication among stakeholders due to missing awareness about other stakeholders' workflow. The modelers experienced the approach as usable and the attendees of the invitational conference found the analysis results to be valid. The proposed disease management view of process modeling was usable and useful for systematically identifying areas of improvement in a fall management program. Although specifically applied to fall management, we believe our case study is characteristic of various disease management settings, suggesting the wider applicability of the approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A supply chain model to improve the beef quality distribution using investment analysis: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupita, Alessandra; Rangkuti, Sabrina Heriza; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

    2017-11-01

    There are significant differences related to the quality and price of the beef commodity in traditional market and modern market in Indonesia. Those are caused by very different treatments of the commodity. The different treatments are in the slaughter lines, the transportation from the abattoir to the outlet, the display system, and the control system. If the problem is not solved by the Government, the gap will result a great loss of the consumer regarding to the quality and sustainability of traditional traders business because of the declining interest in purchasing beef in the traditional markets. This article aims to improve the quality of beef in traditional markets. This study proposed A Supply Chain Model that involves the schemes of investment and government incentive for improving the distribution system. The supply chain model is can be formulated using the Mix Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and solved using the IBM®ILOG®CPLEX software. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs for improving the quality and sustainability business of traditional beef merchants. By using the models, The Government can make a decision to consider incentives for improving the condition.

  13. Macro-Level Modeling of Urban Transportation Safety: Case-Study of Mashhad (Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadi Mehdi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Transportation safety can be aimed at the planning stage in order to adopt safety management and evaluate the long-time policies. The main objective of this research was to make use of crash prediction models in urban transportation planning process. As such, it was attempted to gather data on the results of transportation master plan as well as Mashhad urban crash database. Two modelling method, generalized linear model with negative binomial distribution and geographically weighted regression, were considered as the methods used in this research. Trip variables, including trip by car, trip by bus, trip by bus services and trip by school services, were significant at 95%. The results indicated that both finalized models were competent in predicting urban crashes in Mashhad. Regarding to results urban transportation safety will be improved by changing the modal share for example from private car to bus. The application of the process presented in this study can improve the urban transportation safety management processes and lead to more accurate prediction in terms of crashes across urban traffic areas.

  14. An Object Model for Integrating Diverse Remote Sensing Satellite Sensors: A Case Study of Union Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuli Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Earth Observation sensor web environment, the rapid, accurate, and unified discovery of diverse remote sensing satellite sensors, and their association to yield an integrated solution for a comprehensive response to specific emergency tasks pose considerable challenges. In this study, we propose a remote sensing satellite sensor object model, based on the object-oriented paradigm and the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Model Language. The proposed model comprises a set of sensor resource objects. Each object consists of identification, state of resource attribute, and resource method. We implement the proposed attribute state description by applying it to different remote sensors. A real application, involving the observation of floods at the Yangtze River in China, is undertaken. Results indicate that the sensor inquirer can accurately discover qualified satellite sensors in an accurate and unified manner. By implementing the proposed union operation among the retrieved sensors, the inquirer can further determine how the selected sensors can collaboratively complete a specific observation requirement. Therefore, the proposed model provides a reliable foundation for sharing and integrating multiple remote sensing satellite sensors and their observations.

  15. Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

    2018-03-01

    Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

  16. Interception of values as a result of the business model restructuring – case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nogalski Bogdan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a case of value interception as a result of restructuring the business model of a manufacturing company that operates in the agricultural machinery sector. A company that focuses on core activities in the value chain and commissions the manufacturing of most components to specialised suppliers – as a result of restructuring – becomes an integrator that controls all parts of the supply chain; from obtaining a raw material, through its own production of a possibly large number of components, to the distribution of a finished composite product. The framework of the conducted research featured the identification of the relationships occurring between own production of components comprising a given product, and an alternative solution, i.e. possibility of acquiring them by way of co-operation. The authors assumed that a derivative of the value intercepted in the finished product implementation process is the number of components manufactured using own production resources.

  17. Promoting Profit Model Innovation in Animation Project in Northeast Asia: Case Study on Chinese Cultural and Creative Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Jiao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Building on a case study of three animation companies in the Chinese cultural and creative industry, this study aims to understand how profit model innovation is promoted. Due to the rapidly changing environments and resource scarcity, cultural and creative companies need to select the appropriate profit model according to their own key resources. The study uncovers two critical factors that promote profit model innovation in animation projects: the quantity of consumers and their consumption intention. According to these two dimensions, the authors’ analysis shows profit model innovation in animation projects can be divided into Fans mode, Popular mode, Placement mode, and Failure mode, respectively. This study provides an empirical basis for advocating profit model innovation and discusses the resource requirements of Fan mode, Popular model, and Placement mode in China’s cultural and creative industry. The authors’ research also has managerial implications that might help firms promote profit model innovation. Finally, learning and promoting the profit model of China’s animation industry in the Northeast Asia area will be conducive to Northeast Asia’s cooperation and sustainable development.

  18. Models for retrospective quantification of indoor radon exposure in case-control studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerken, M.; Kreienbrock, L.; Wellmann, J.; Kreuzer, M.; Wichmann, H.E.

    2000-01-01

    In epidemiologic studies on lung cancer risk due to indoor radon the quantification of individual radon exposure over a long time period is one of the main issues. Therefore, radon measurements in one or more dwellings, which in total have been inhabited by the participants for a sufficient time-period, are necessary as well as consideration of changes of building characteristics and ventilation habits, which influence radon concentration. Given data on 1-y alpha-track measurements and personal information from 6,000 participants of case-control studies in West and East Germany, and improved method is developed to assess individual radon exposure histories. Times spent in different rooms of the dwelling, which are known from a personal questionnaire, are taken into account. The time spent outside the house varies substantially among the participants. Therefore, assuming a substantially lower radon exposure outside the dwelling, the residence time constitutes an important aspect of total radon exposure. By means of an analysis of variance, important determinants of indoor radon are identified, namely constant conditions such as type of house, type of construction, year of construction, floor and type of basement, and changeable conditions such as heating system, window insulation, and airing habits. A correction of measurements in former dwellings by factors derived from the analysis is applied if current living conditions differ from those of the participants at the time when they were living in the particular dwellings. In rare cases the adjustment for changes leads to a correction of the measurements with a factor of about 1.4, but a reduction of 5% on average only. Exposure assessment can be improved by considering time at home and changes of building and ventilation conditions that affect radon concentration. The major concern that changes in ventilation habits and building conditions lead to substantial errors in exposure assessment cannot be confirmed in the

  19. Modeling the residual effects and threshold saturation of training: a case study of Olympic swimmers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellard, Philippe; Avalos, Marta; Millet, Grégoire; Lacoste, Lucien; Barale, Frédéric; Chatard, Jean-Claude

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study was to model the residual effects of training on the swimming performance and to compare a model including threshold saturation (MM) to the Banister model (BM). Seven Olympic swimmers were studied over a period of 4 ± 2 years. For three training loads (low-intensity wLIT, high-intensity wHIT and strength training wST), three residual training effects were determined: short-term (STE) during the taper phase, i.e. three weeks before the performance (weeks 0, −1, −2), intermediate-term (ITE) during the intensity phase (weeks −3, −4 and −5) and long-term (LTE) during the volume phase (weeks −6, −7, −8). ITE and LTE were positive for wHIT and wLIT, respectively (P < 0.05). wLIT during taper was related to performances by a parabolic relationship (P < 0.05). Different quality measures indicated that MM compares favorably with BM. Identifying individual training thresholds may help individualizing the distribution of training loads. PMID:15705048

  20. Flood Risk Zoning by Using 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling: A Case Study in Jinan City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and rapid urbanization have aggravated the rainstorm flood in Jinan City during the past decades. Jinan City is higher in the south and lower in the north with a steep slope inclined from the south to the north. This results in high-velocity overland flow and deep waterlogging, which poses a tremendous threat to pedestrians and vehicles. Therefore, it is vital to investigate the rainstorm flood and further perform flood risk zoning. This study is carried out in the “Sponge City Construction” pilot area of Jinan City, where the InfoWorks ICM 2D hydrodynamic model is utilized for simulating historical and designed rainfall events. The model is validated with observations, and the causes for errors are analyzed. The simulated water depth and flow velocity are recorded for flood risk zoning. The result shows that the InfoWorks ICM 2D model performed well. The flood risk zoning result shows that rainfalls with larger recurrence intervals generate larger areas of moderate to extreme risk. Meanwhile, the zoning results for the two historical rainfalls show that flood with a higher maximum hourly rainfall intensity is more serious. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

  1. Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is accepted that human-induced climate change is unavoidable and it will have effects on physical, chemical, and biological properties of aquatic habitats. This will be especially important for cold water fishes such as trout. The objective of this study is to simulate water temperature for future periods under the climate change situations. Future water temperature in the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, QC, Canada were simulated by the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model, using meteorological inputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The result of the study indicated that water temperature in June will increase 0.2–0.7 °C and that in September, median water temperature could decrease by 0.2–1.1 °C. The rise in summer water temperature may be favorable to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis growth, but several days over the Upper Incipient Lethal Temperature (UILT are also likely to occur. Therefore, flow regulation procedures, including cold water releases from the Morin dam may have to be considered for the Fourchue River.

  2. Hydrogeochemical Modelling for Groundwater in Neyveli Aquifer, Tamil Nadu, India, Using PHREEQC: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chidambaram, S.; Anandhan, P. [Annamalai University, Department of Earth Sciences (India); Prasanna, M. V., E-mail: geoprasanna@gmail.com [Curtin University, Department of Applied Geology, School of Engineering and Science (Malaysia); Ramanathan, AL. [Jawaharlal Nehru University, School of Environmental Sciences (India); Srinivasamoorthy, K. [Pondicherry University, Department of Earth Sciences, School of Physical, Chemical and Applied Sciences (India); Senthil Kumar, G. [HNB Garwhal University, Department of Geology (India)

    2012-09-15

    Sophisticated geochemical models have been used to describe and predict the chemical behaviour of complex natural waters and also to protect the groundwater resources from future contamination. One such model is used to study the hydrogeochemical complexity in a mine area. Extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifer has been in progress for decades to mine lignite in Neyveli. This extraction has developed a cone of depression around the mine site. This cone of depression is well established by the geochemical nature of groundwater in the region. 42 groundwater samples were collected in a definite pattern and they were analysed for major cations, anions and trace elements. The saturation index (SI) of the groundwater for carbonate, sulphate and silica minerals was studied and it has been correlated with the recharge and the discharge regions. The SI of alumino silicates has been used to decipher the stage of weathering. The SI{sub Gibbsite} - SI{sub K-feldspar} has been spatially distributed and the regions of discharge and recharge were identified. Then two flow paths A1 and A2 were identified and inverse modelling using PHREEQC were carried out to delineate the geochemical process that has taken place from recharge to discharge. The initial and final solutions in both the flow paths were correlated with the thermodynamic silicate stability diagrams of groundwater and it was found that the state of thermodynamic stability of the end solutions along the flow path were approaching similar states of equilibrium at the discharge.

  3. Fuzzy Continuous Review Inventory Model using ABC Multi-Criteria Classification Approach: A Single Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriastuti - Ginting

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Inventory is considered as the most expensive, yet important,to any companies. It representsapproximately 50% of the total investment. Inventory cost has become one of the majorcontributorsto inefficiency, therefore it should be managed effectively. This study aims to propose an alternative inventory model,  by using ABC multi-criteria classification approach to minimize total cost. By combining FANP (Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and TOPSIS (Technique of Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution, the ABC multi-criteria classification approach identified 12 items of 69 inventory items as “outstanding important class” that contributed to 80% total inventory cost. This finding  is then used as the basis to determine the proposed continuous review inventory model.This study found that by using fuzzy trapezoidal cost, the inventory  turnover ratio can be increased, and inventory cost can be decreased by 78% for each item in “class A” inventory.Keywords:ABC multi-criteria classification, FANP-TOPSIS, continuous review inventory model lead-time demand distribution, trapezoidal fuzzy number 

  4. User Friendly Open GIS Tool for Large Scale Data Assimilation - a Case Study of Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, P. K.

    2012-08-01

    Open source software (OSS) coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc...) and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.). Quantum GIS (QGIS) is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn - Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect), landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

  5. Mechanical degradation of Emplacement Drifts at Yucca Mountain - A Modeling Case Study. Part I: Nonlithophysal Rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Lin; D. Kicker; B. Damjanac; M. Board; M. Karakouzian

    2006-01-01

    This paper outlines rock mechanics investigations associated with mechanical degradation of planned emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, which is the designated site for the proposed U.S. high-level nuclear waste repository. The factors leading to drift degradation include stresses from the overburden, stresses induced by the heat released from the emplaced waste, stresses due to seismically related ground motions, and time-dependent strength degradation. The welded tuff emplacement horizon consists of two groups of rock with distinct engineering properties: nonlithophysal units and lithophysal units, based on the relative proportion of lithophysal cavities. The term 'lithophysal' refers to hollow, bubble like cavities in volcanic rock that are surrounded by a porous rim formed by fine-grained alkali feldspar, quartz, and other minerals. Lithophysae are typically a few centimeters to a few decimeters in diameter. Part I of the paper concentrates on the generally hard, strong, and fractured nonlithophysal rock. The degradation behavior of the tunnels in the nonlithophysal rock is controlled by the occurrence of keyblocks. A statistically equivalent fracture model was generated based on extensive underground fracture mapping data from the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain. Three-dimensional distinct block analyses, generated with the fracture patterns randomly selected from the fracture model, were developed with the consideration of in situ, thermal, and seismic loads. In this study, field data, laboratory data, and numerical analyses are well integrated to provide a solution for the unique problem of modeling drift degradation

  6. Studies on diagnosis of lung emphysema by CT image using experimental models and clinical cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatani, Seiki

    1998-01-01

    Since the detailed report between the degree of functional disorder in lung emphysema and the analysis of CT image is quite unknown, the present study was attempted to produce the experimental model of lung emphysema with various stages by the administration of papain to the focal lobe in canine lung. Using this model or clinical lung emphysema, the relationship between the degree of destruction of alveolar walls, clinical pulmonary functions and CT images was investigated. CT scan was performed at the level of 50% vital capacity in both experimental models and clinical subjects by using spirometric gating CT. CT density histogram was obtained from CT image which was produced by using the developed software for this purpose. Densitometric parameters, such as mean CT value, %LAA, the peak in the histogram and 5% tile were selected from CT image. Papain solution of 5 mg/kg body weight was cumulatively administered to the left lower lobe in canine lung, resulting in the destruction of lung alveolar walls in parallel to the increasing dosage of papain. There was a significant correlation between not only the increasing dosage of papain, but also %FEV 1.0 and CT densitometric parameters, indicating that the histological changes of alveolar walls and the lung function in lung emphysema could be estimated by analysis of CT image. These experimental and clinical studies suggest that the analysis of CT image can reflect the pathophysiological changes in the lung and be useful for precise clinical diagnosis of lung emphysema. (author)

  7. Can the business model of Handelsbanken be an archetype for small and medium sized banks? A comparative case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kousgaard Larsen, Morten; Lange Nissen, Jacob; Lueg, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    strengthening of the financial and non-financial position can serve as a blueprint for small- and medium sized banks. We conduct a comparative case study by interviewing Handelsbanken and the disguised ‘Danish Local Bank’ (DLB), where the DLB is a representative example of a small- and medium sized Danish bank......The Danish Banking sector faces increasing requirements regarding regulation and profitability, which especially threatens small- and medium sized banks. This study analyzes whether the successful business model of Handelsbanken (‘The Handelsbanken Way’) to banking in regard to the needed....... This study is structured according to the frameworks from Business Model implementations and from implied organizational structures. Using the notion of Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010), this study reveals only minor differences in the Business Models of Handelsbanken and DLB. Despite the supposedly obvious...

  8. A Novel Approach for Assessing the Performance of Sustainable Urbanization Based on Structural Equation Modeling: A China Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liudan Jiao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The rapid urbanization process has brought problems to China, such as traffic congestion, air pollution, water pollution and resources scarcity. Sustainable urbanization is commonly appreciated as an effective way to promote the sustainable development. The proper understanding of the sustainable urbanization performance is critical to provide governments with support in making urban development strategies and policies for guiding the sustainable development. This paper utilizes the method of Structural equation modeling (SEM to establish an assessment model for measuring sustainable urbanization performance. Four unobserved endogenous variables, economic variable, social variable, environment variable and resource variable, and 21 observed endogenous variables comprise the SEM model. A case study of the 31 provinces in China demonstrates the validity of the SEM model and the analysis results indicated that the assessment model could help make more effective policies and strategies for improving urban sustainability by recognizing the statue of sustainable urbanization.

  9. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: A case study on Lena River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, André, E-mail: andrerd@gmail.com; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A.R.; Vilar, Vítor J.P., E-mail: vilar@fe.up.pt

    2014-07-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km{sup 2} watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between − 26% and 23% for calibration and − 30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms. - Highlights: • An integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management is presented. • An insight into the

  10. [Case and studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, András

    2015-11-15

    Case studies and case reports form an important and ever growing part of scientific and scholarly literature. The paper deals with the share and citation rate of these publication types on different fields of research. In general, evidence seems to support the opinion that an excessive number of such publications may negatively influence the impact factor of the journal. In the literature of scientometrics, case studies (at least the presence of the term "case study" in the titles of the papers) have a moderate share, but their citation rate is practically equal to that of other publication types.

  11. Commuter Train Passenger Safety Model Using Positive Behavior Approach: The Case Study in Suburban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanto, D. A.; Adisasmita, S. A.; Hamid, S.; Hustim, M.

    2018-04-01

    Currently, Train passanger safety measures are more predominantly measurable using negative dimensions in user mode behavior, such as accident rate, accident intensity and accident impact. This condition suggests that safety improvements aim only to reduce accidents. Therefore, this study aims to measure the safety level of light train transit modes (KRL) through the dimensions of traveling safety on commuters based on positive safety indicators with severel condition departure times and returns for work purposes and long trip rates above KRL. The primary survey were used in data collection methods. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used in data analysis. The results show that there are different models of the safety level of departure and return journey. The highest difference is in the security dimension which is the internal variable of KRL users.

  12. Personalized Information Management by Online Stores in 4C Model. Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kubicka Anna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing complexity of the business environment, growing knowledge requirements, development of information technologies, and competitiveness implies the need of implementation of information management systems. Moreover, welter of information about online customers, their individual behavior, and their expectations force entrepreneurs to manage information in a personalized way. Monitoring Internet users behavior, creating their profiles (based on data about age, sex, lifestyle, interests, family, work, etc., and controlling current traffic on the Web site give wide range of possibilities in creating a real model of potential customers preference and using it in online communication. This study concentrates on possibilities of using personalized communication in the information management by online stores in 4C model.

  13. Proposing an Aggregate Production Planning Model by Goal Programming Approach, a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansoureh Farzam Rad

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Production planning is one of the most important functions in the process of production management. Production planning in the intermediate range of time is termed as aggregate production planning (APP. Aggregate production planning is an important upper level planning activity in a production management system. The present study tries to suggest an aggregate production planning model for products of Hafez tile factory during one year. Due to this fact that the director of the company seeks 3 main objectives to determine the optimal production rate, the linear goal planning method was employed. After solving the problem, in order to examine the efficiency and the distinctiveness of this method in compare to linear programming, the problem was modeled just by considering one objective then was solved by linear programming approach. The findings revealed the goal programming with multi objectives resulted more appropriate solution rather than linear programming with just one objective.

  14. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  15. Modeling background radiation using geochemical data: A case study in and around Cameron, Arizona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsac, Kara E; Burnley, Pamela C; Adcock, Christopher T; Haber, Daniel A; Malchow, Russell L; Hausrath, Elisabeth M

    2016-12-01

    This study compares high resolution forward models of natural gamma-ray background with that measured by high resolution aerial gamma-ray surveys. The ability to predict variations in natural background radiation levels should prove useful for those engaged in measuring anthropogenic contributions to background radiation for the purpose of emergency response and homeland security operations. The forward models are based on geologic maps and remote sensing multi-spectral imagery combined with two different sources of data: 1) bedrock geochemical data (uranium, potassium and thorium concentrations) collected from national databases, the scientific literature and private companies, and 2) the low spatial resolution NURE (National Uranium Resource Evaluation) aerial gamma-ray survey. The study area near Cameron, Arizona, is located in an arid region with minimal vegetation and, due to the presence of abandoned uranium mines, was the subject of a previous high resolution gamma-ray survey. We found that, in general, geologic map units form a good basis for predicting the geographic distribution of the gamma-ray background. Predictions of background gamma-radiation levels based on bedrock geochemical analyses were not as successful as those based on the NURE aerial survey data sorted by geologic unit. The less successful result of the bedrock geochemical model is most likely due to a number of factors including the need to take into account the evolution of soil geochemistry during chemical weathering and the influence of aeolian addition. Refinements to the forward models were made using ASTER visualizations to create subunits of similar exposure rate within the Chinle Formation, which contains multiple lithologies and by grouping alluvial units by drainage basin rather than age. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. PCM energy storage modelling: Case study for a solar-ejector cooling cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allouche, Yosr

    The work described in this PhD Thesis focuses on the post-processing of optical fibers and their enhancement as sensing element. Since the majority of sensors presented are based in Fabry-Perot interferometers, an historical overview of this category of optical fiber sensors is firstly presented. This review considers the works published since the early years, in the beginning of the 1980s, until the middle of 2015. The incorporation of microcavities at the tip of a single mode fiber was extensively studied, particularly for the measurement of nitrogen and methane gas pressure. These cavities were fabricated using hollow core silica tubes and a hollow core photonic crystal fiber. Following a different approach, the microcavities were incorporated between two sections of single mode fiber. In this case, the low sensitivity to temperature makes these microcavities highly desirable for the measurement of strain at high temperatures. Competences in post-processing techniques such as the chemical etching and the writing of periodical structures in the fiber core by means of an excimer or a femtosecond laser were also acquired in the course of the PhD programme. One of the works consisted in the design and manufacturing of a double clad optical fiber. The refractive index of the inner cladding was higher than the one of the outer cladding and the core. Thus, light was guided in the inner cladding instead of propagating in the core. This situation was overcome by applying chemical etching, thus removing the inner cladding. The core, surrounded by air, was then able to guide light. Two different applications were found for this fiber, as a temperature sensor and as an optical refractometer. In the last, the optical phase changes with the liquid refractive index. Two different types of fiber Bragg gratings were characterized in strain and temperature. Sensing structures obtained through the phase mask technique at the tip of an optical fiber were subjected to chemical

  17. Designing a Model of Organizational Agility: A Case Study of Ardabil Gas Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Razmi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Organizational agility means the ability of every organization in sensation, perception, and prediction of available changes in the business environment. The importance of organizational agility in a competitive environment is nowadays widely recognized and accepted. The aim of this research was to design a unified theoretical model of organizational agility for Ardabil Gas Company based upon the theoretical principles of organizational agility proposed by Goldman (1995. Independent variables including organizational intelligence, organizational commitment, and organizational trust were considered as mediator variable and other four essential components of organizational agility such as forming of virtual participation valorize to humanistic knowledge and skills, change readiness, and customers answering were known as dependent variables of research. This is an applied, descriptive-correlation research, conducted by survey methodology. In this study, 568 employees, contractors, and subscribers of Ardabil Gas Company were chosen as the statistical population of the study. For the purpose of the study a questionnaire for data collection was used. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM, it is straightforward to test hypotheses of the equality of various correlation coefficients with any number of covariates across multiple groups. The gathered data was analyzed by using SPSS and LISREL software packages. The results of statistical analysis indicate that organizational trust has a significant positive relationship with organizational agility and organizational trust is the moderator of the relationship between technology intelligence and organizational agility and the relationship between organizational commitment and organizational agility.

  18. Modeling of gas demand using degree-day concept: case study for Ankara

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumrah, F.; Katircioglu, D.; Aykan, Y.; Okumus, S.; Kilincer, N.

    2001-01-01

    The demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in Turkey, as it is in the rest of the world. However, natural gas reserves and production are rather limited in Turkey.The bulk of the Turkish gas demand is met by imports. Russia currently accounts for 69% of Turkey's gas supplies. Physical shortages might occur; supplies for industrial production and household consumption could temporarily run short. Also, fluctuations in consumption might occur due to climatic reasons or peak daily industrial energy demand. Underground gas storage is a necessity in order to regulate these seasonal, daily, and hourly fluctuations. In order to effectively design and utilize underground gas storage, it is necessary to identify the market requirements. In this study, Ankara was chosen as a pilot region due to its strategical importance of being the capital city of Turkey, and a wide range of marketing surveys for the last seven years was performed. All of the factors influencing the gas consumption and the relationships between these factors were analyzed. How does gas demand behave in extremely cold weather? How does the industrial part of the city act in the consumption behavior? What are the plans of the Municipality of Ankara, responsible for the execution of the natural gas distribution project in Ankara? A model was developed based on degree-day (DD) concept, including the annual number of customers, average DDs, and the usage per customer. A history matching study was performed to verify the results of the model with the measured consumption data for the last seven years. Comparisons showed that the calculated consumption by DD model and measured daily consumption were in good agreement. Finally, by using the developed approach, the gas demand was forecasted for Ankara up to 2005. The results of this study can be used to design underground gas storage facility near Ankara. (author)

  19. Regional modelling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: WRF-Chem-PAH model development and East Asia case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Qing; Lammel, Gerhard; Gencarelli, Christian N.; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Chen, Ying; Přibylová, Petra; Teich, Monique; Zhang, Yuxuan; Zheng, Guangjie; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Zhang, Qiang; Herrmann, Hartmut; Shiraiwa, Manabu; Spichtinger, Peter; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Cheng, Yafang

    2017-10-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants, with increasing emissions in pace with economic development in East Asia, but their distribution and fate in the atmosphere are not yet well understood. We extended the regional atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model with Chemistry module) to comprehensively study the atmospheric distribution and the fate of low-concentration, slowly degrading semivolatile compounds. The WRF-Chem-PAH model reflects the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It was applied for PAHs covering a wide range of volatility and hydrophobicity, i.e. phenanthrene, chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene, in East Asia. Temporally highly resolved PAH concentrations and particulate mass fractions were evaluated against observations. The WRF-Chem-PAH model is able to reasonably well simulate the concentration levels and particulate mass fractions of PAHs near the sources and at a remote outflow region of East Asia, in high spatial and temporal resolutions. Sensitivity study shows that the heterogeneous reaction with ozone and the homogeneous reaction with the nitrate radical significantly influence the fate and distributions of PAHs. The methods to implement new species and to correct the transport problems can be applied to other newly implemented species in WRF-Chem.

  20. Marked point process for modelling seismic activity (case study in Sumatra and Java)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratiwi, Hasih; Sulistya Rini, Lia; Wayan Mangku, I.

    2018-05-01

    Earthquake is a natural phenomenon that is random, irregular in space and time. Until now the forecast of earthquake occurrence at a location is still difficult to be estimated so that the development of earthquake forecast methodology is still carried out both from seismology aspect and stochastic aspect. To explain the random nature phenomena, both in space and time, a point process approach can be used. There are two types of point processes: temporal point process and spatial point process. The temporal point process relates to events observed over time as a sequence of time, whereas the spatial point process describes the location of objects in two or three dimensional spaces. The points on the point process can be labelled with additional information called marks. A marked point process can be considered as a pair (x, m) where x is the point of location and m is the mark attached to the point of that location. This study aims to model marked point process indexed by time on earthquake data in Sumatra Island and Java Island. This model can be used to analyse seismic activity through its intensity function by considering the history process up to time before t. Based on data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey from 1973 to 2017 with magnitude threshold 5, we obtained maximum likelihood estimate for parameters of the intensity function. The estimation of model parameters shows that the seismic activity in Sumatra Island is greater than Java Island.

  1. Islamic value to the modification of BSC model (a case study in evaluating company performance)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Permana, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Halal is the key word for the Muslim community in consuming goods or services. Providing halal products is the main focus for companies with the largest consumers from the Muslim community. Halal is not only from the ingredients but also from the process in its production. The purpose of this study is to design a model of performance measurement for a company in order to provide halal products. Balance Score Card (BSC) is used as a framework. BSC as a performance measurement system has advantages not only focus on financial aspect but also non finance. Islamic values are incorporated into four perspective of BSC. They are: Selection of sharia financial institutions in financial perspective, payment method by consumer in consumer perspective, number of product with halal certificate and menu clarify in internal business process perspective, then accuracy of payroll time in learning and growth perspective. The modified BSC model obtains 17 Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The model is applied in a culinary industry (restaurant). Structured questionnaires and scheduled interviews are used to collect the important data. The result show that these industry fail to meet 8 from total 17 KPI so performance achievement is only 70.81%, and only reach 22.58% in Islamic value aspect. This is recorded by the company as an input to improve their performance in order to compete in halal food business.

  2. Flood Hazard Mapping using Hydraulic Model and GIS: A Case Study in Mandalay City, Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu Kyu Sein

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of flood frequency analysis integrating with 1D Hydraulic model (HECRAS and Geographic Information System (GIS to prepare flood hazard maps of different return periods in Ayeyarwady River at Mandalay City in Myanmar. Gumbel’s distribution was used to calculate the flood peak of different return periods, namely, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years. The flood peak from frequency analysis were input into HEC-RAS model to find the corresponding flood level and extents in the study area. The model results were used in integrating with ArcGIS to generate flood plain maps. Flood depths and extents have been identified through flood plain maps. Analysis of 100 years return period flood plain map indicated that 157.88 km2 with the percentage of 17.54% is likely to be inundated. The predicted flood depth ranges varies from greater than 0 to 24 m in the flood plains and on the river. The range between 3 to 5 m were identified in the urban area of Chanayetharzan, Patheingyi, and Amarapua Townships. The highest inundated area was 85 km2 in the Amarapura Township.

  3. Towards Global QSAR Model Building for Acute Toxicity: Munro Database Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Chavan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A series of 436 Munro database chemicals were studied with respect to their corresponding experimental LD50 values to investigate the possibility of establishing a global QSAR model for acute toxicity. Dragon molecular descriptors were used for the QSAR model development and genetic algorithms were used to select descriptors better correlated with toxicity data. Toxic values were discretized in a qualitative class on the basis of the Globally Harmonized Scheme: the 436 chemicals were divided into 3 classes based on their experimental LD50 values: highly toxic, intermediate toxic and low to non-toxic. The k-nearest neighbor (k-NN classification method was calibrated on 25 molecular descriptors and gave a non-error rate (NER equal to 0.66 and 0.57 for internal and external prediction sets, respectively. Even if the classification performances are not optimal, the subsequent analysis of the selected descriptors and their relationship with toxicity levels constitute a step towards the development of a global QSAR model for acute toxicity.

  4. European model of satisfaction: a case study with students from a Higher Education Instituition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Anger Cavalheiro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the overall satisfaction determinants of the student’s body of a higher education institution in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil. To do so, a descriptive quantitative research was performed, which used a model based on a Survey with 402 students, being the instrument used to conduct the survey based on the European model of satisfaction. Represented by a structural equation (PASWAN YOUNG, 2002, apud VIEIRA et al., 2008, the ECSI (European Customer Satisfaction Model, focuses on: (i evaluating the influence of perceived quality, the expectation of quality, image and perceived value in the overall student satisfaction; (II evaluating the influence of the general satisfaction of students in the level of loyalty and retention of students in the educational institution, and (III pointing key areas as well as a set of indicators for the management and maintenance of the students’ satisfaction from the institution being analyzed. Thus, with the application of the instrument, three factors able to explain 78% of student’s satisfaction towards the university were found: the first and most representative factor was called the student perceived value, which is the perceived value or level of teaching quality for the price paid by the students, the second factor is the image of the university, and the third factor are the expectations of the student.

  5. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  6. Performance of FHWA model for predicting traffic noise: a case study of metropolitan city, Lucknow (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Srivastava

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial and transport activities are the two major sources of noise pollution in any metropolitan city. Lucknow city, the capital of the largest populated state Uttar Pradesh in India has an area of 310 sq. km and is rapidly growing as a commercial, industrial and trading centre of northern India. The population of Lucknow city as per census 2001 is 22.45 Lacs. It is expected that by the year 2021 it will make 45 Lacs. The total vehicle population in Lucknow city on 31 March 2008, was nearly 1 million with almost 80% two wheelers, 12% cars, 1.36% three wheelers, 0.45% buses etc. A study was carried out to assess the existing status of noise levels and its impacts on the environment with a possibility of further expansion of the city. Ambient noise levels were measured at different locations selected on the basis of land use such as silence, heavy traffic and residential and commercial zones. It was found that noise levels at all selected locations were much higher (75–90 dB than the prescribed limits. The observed traffic volume and data on road geometry were used to predict noise levels using Federal Highway Administration Agency (FHWA model and the calculated noise levels were compared with the observed levels for checking the suitability of this model for predicting the future levels. It was established that the results obtained by FHWA model were very close to the observed noise levels and that the model was suitable to be used for other similar metropolitan cities in India.

  7. Economic modelling of price support mechanisms for renewable energy: Case study on Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huber, Claus; Ryan, Lisa; O Gallachoir, Brian; Resch, Gustav; Polaski, Katrina; Bazilian, Morgan

    2007-01-01

    The Irish Government is considering its future targets, policy and programmes for renewable energy for the period beyond 2005. This follows a review in 2003 of policy options that identified a number of different measures to stimulate increased deployment of renewable energy generation capacity. This paper expands this review with an economic analysis of renewable energy price support mechanisms in the Irish electricity generation sector. The focus is on three primary price support mechanisms quota obligations, feed in tariffs and competitive tender schemes. The Green-X computer model is utilised to characterise the RES-E potential and costs in Ireland up until, and including, 2020. The results from this dynamic software tool are used to compare the different support mechanisms in terms of total costs to society and the average premium costs relative to the market price for electricity. The results indicate that in achieving a 20% RES-E proportion of gross electricity consumption by 2020, a tender scheme provides the least costs to society over the period 2006-2020 but only in case there is limited or no strategic bidding. Considering, however, strategic bidding, a feed-in tariff can be the more efficient solution. Between the other two support mechanisms, the total costs to society are highest for feed-in-tariffs (FIT) until 2013, at which point the costs for the quota system begin to rise rapidly and overtake FIT in 2014-2020. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the support mechanism calculations by varying default parameters such as the interim (2010) target, the assumed investment risk levels and the amount of biomass co-firing. This analysis shows that a 2010 target of 15% rather than 13.2% generates lower costs for society over the whole period 2006-2020, but higher costs for the RES-E strategy over the period 2006-2010

  8. Economic modelling of price support mechanisms for renewable energy: case study on Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huber, C.; Resch, G.

    2007-01-01

    The Irish Government is considering its future targets, policy and programmes for renewable energy for the period beyond 2005. This follows a review in 2003 of policy options that identified a number of different measures to stimulate increased deployment of renewable energy generation capacity. This paper expands this review with an economic analysis of renewable energy price support mechanisms in the Irish electricity generation sector. The focus is on three primary price support mechanisms quota obligations, feed in tariffs and competitive tender schemes. The Green-X computer model is utilised to characterise the RES-E potential and costs in Ireland up until, and including, 2020. The results from this dynamic software tool are used to compare the different support mechanisms in terms of total costs to society and the average premium costs relative to the market price for electricity. The results indicate that in achieving a 20% RES-E proportion of gross electricity consumption by 2020, a tender scheme provides the least costs to society over the period 2006-2020 but only in case there is limited or no strategic bidding. Considering, however, strategic bidding, a feed-in tariff can be the more efficient solution. Between the other two support mechanisms, the total costs to society are highest for feed-in-tariffs (FIT) until 2013, at which point the costs for the quota system begin to rise rapidly and overtake FIT in 2014-2020. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the support mechanism calculations by varying default parameters such as the interim (2010) target, the assumed investment risk levels and the amount of biomass co-firing. This analysis shows that a 2010 target of 15% rather than 13.2% generates lower costs for society over the whole period 2006-2020, but higher costs for the RES-E strategy over the period 2006-2010. (author)

  9. Evaluation of Seasonal, ANN, and Hybrid Models in Modeling Urban Water Consumption A Case Study of Rash City

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    Seyed Nematollah Mousavi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting future water consumption in cities to plan for the required capacities in urban water supply systems (including water transmission networks and water treatment facilities depends on the application of behavioral models of uban water consumption. Being located in the North-South corridor, Rasht City is assuming a new role to play in the national economy as a foreign trade center. It will, thus, be necessary to review its present urban infrastructure in order to draft the required infrastructural development plans for meeting the city’s future water demands. The three Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, and SARIMABP approaches were employed in present study to model and forecast Rasht urban water consumption using monthly time series for the period 2001‒2008 of urban water consumption in Rasht. The seasonal unit root test was applied to develop the relevant SARIMA model. Results showed that all the seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots are present in all the frequencies in the monthly time series for Rasht urban water consumption. Using a proper filter, the SAIMA patterns were estimated. In a second stage the SARIMA output was used to determine the ANN output and the hybrid SARIMABP structure was accordingly constructed. The values for Rasht urban water consumption predicted by the three models indicated the superiority of the SARIMABP hybrid model as evidenced by the forecast error index of 0.41% obtained for this model. The other two models of SARIMA and ANN were, however, found to yield acceptable results for urban water managers since the forecasting error recorded for them was below 1%.

  10. Stuttering Intervention in Three Service Delivery Models (Direct, Hybrid, and Telepractice: Two Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. Valentine

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed outcomes in stuttering intervention across three service delivery models: direct, hybrid, and telepractice for two 11-year old children who stutter. The goal of the study was to investigate whether short-term goals were maintained through the telepractice sessions. The Stuttering Severity Instrument, Fourth Edition (SSI-4 was administered to each child before and after each intervention period and weekly fluency samples (percentage of stuttered syllables in a monologue were obtained in each of the 10-week intervention periods. In addition, the Communication Attitudes Test-Revised was used to assess the children’s attitudes toward speaking. Following the telepractice period, parents and children completed a questionnaire concerning the therapy experience via telepractice. Both children continued to improve fluency as measured by the weekly fluency samples. SSI-4 severity ratings improved for one child and remained consistent for the other. These outcomes appear to demonstrate that telepractice is viable for improving and maintaining fluency.

  11. Getting water right: A case study in water yield modelling based on precipitation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessacg, Natalia; Flaherty, Silvia; Brandizi, Laura; Solman, Silvina; Pascual, Miguel

    2015-12-15

    Water yield is a key ecosystem service in river basins and especially in dry regions around the World. In this study we carry out a modelling analysis of water yields in the Chubut River basin, located in one of the driest districts of Patagonia, Argentina. We focus on the uncertainty around precipitation data, a driver of paramount importance for water yield. The objectives of this study are to: i) explore the spatial and numeric differences among six widely used global precipitation datasets for this region, ii) test them against data from independent ground stations, and iii) explore the effects of precipitation data uncertainty on simulations of water yield. The simulations were performed using the ecosystem services model InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) with each of the six different precipitation datasets as input. Our results show marked differences among datasets for the Chubut watershed region, both in the magnitude of precipitations and their spatial arrangement. Five of the precipitation databases overestimate the precipitation over the basin by 50% or more, particularly over the more humid western range. Meanwhile, the remaining dataset (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - TRMM), based on satellite measurements, adjusts well to the observed rainfall in different stations throughout the watershed and provides a better representation of the precipitation gradient characteristic of the rain shadow of the Andes. The observed differences among datasets in the representation of the rainfall gradient translate into large differences in water yield simulations. Errors in precipitation of +30% (-30%) amplify to water yield errors ranging from 50 to 150% (-45 to -60%) in some sub-basins. These results highlight the importance of assessing uncertainties in main input data when quantifying and mapping ecosystem services with biophysical models and cautions about the undisputed use of global environmental datasets. Copyright

  12. Forecasting Model of Risk of Cancer in Lung Cancer Pedigree in a Case-control Study

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    Huan LIN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Annual lung screening using spiral computed tomography (CT, has a high sensitivity of detecting early lung cancer (LC, but its high rates of false-positive often lead to unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study is to create a forecasting model of high risk individuals to lung cancer. Methods The pathologic diagnoses of LC in Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute were consecutively chosen as the probands. All the members of the first-degree relatives of probands' and their spouses' were enrolled in this study. These pedigrees consisted of 633 probands' pedigrees and 565 spouses' pedigrees. Unless otherwise stated, analyses were performed using the SPSS 17.0 statistical software package. Results Compared with the control, a family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with LC risk (OR=1.71, P<0.001, the sub-group of either one infected individual or more than two infected individuals in first-degree relatives showed significantly statistical differences (P=0.005, P=0.002. In the forecasting model, the risk compared to that in Chinese population was from 0.38 to 63.08 folds. In the population whose risk was more than 10 times to the Chinese population, the accuracy rate of prediction was 88.1%. Conclusion A family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with increased LC risk. The more infected individuals exist in first-degree relatives, the more risk was showed. In the forecasting model, smokers especially heavy ones whose risk were more than 10 times to the Chinese population should be receive annual screening. The population are positive at least any two conditions which including male, lung disease history, occupation expose and history of cancer in first-degree relative.

  13. The Evolution of Network-based Business Models Illustrated Through the Case Study of an Entrepreneurship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Lund

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Existing frameworks for understanding and analyzing the value configuration and structuring of partnerships in relation such network-based business models are found to be inferior. The purpose of this paper is therefore to broaden our understanding of how business models may change over time and how the role of strategic partners may differ over time too. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal case study spanning over years and mobilising multiple qualitative methods such as interviews, observation and participative observation forms the basis of the data collection. Findings: This paper illustrates how a network-based business model arises and evolves and how the forces of a network structure impact the development of its partner relationships. The contribution of this article is to understanding how partners positioned around a business model can be organized into a network-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers can gain insight into barriers and enablers relating to different types of loose organisations and how to best manage such relationships and interactions Originality/value: This study adds value to the existing literature by reflecting the dynamics created in the interactions between a business model’s strategic partners and how a how a business model can evolve in a series of distinct phases

  14. Analysis of significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling: Case study Jemma drainage network, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vít Maca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the paper is to describe methodology for calculating significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling and present result of selected one. As a study area part of a Jemma basin in Ethiopian Highland is used. This locality is highly affected by mass movement processes. In the first part all major factors and their influence are described briefly. Majority of the work focuses on research of other methodologies used in susceptibility models and design of own methodology. This method is unlike most of the methods used completely objective, therefore it is not possible to intervene in the results. In article all inputs and outputs of the method are described as well as all stages of calculations. Results are illustrated on specific examples. In study area most important factor for landslide susceptibility is slope, on the other hand least important is land cover. At the end of article landslide susceptibility map is created. Part of the article is discussion of results and possible improvements of the methodology.

  15. Prospective elementary teachers’ perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Fazio1,*

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  16. Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case study in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guagliardi, Ilaria; Rovella, Natalia; Apollaro, Carmine; Bloise, Andrea; Rosa, Rosanna De; Scarciglia, Fabio; Buttafuoco, Gabriele

    2016-12-01

    The activity of natural radionuclides in soil has become an environmental concern for local public and national authorities because of the harmful effects of radiation exposure on human health. In this context, modelling and mapping the activity of natural radionuclides in soil is an important research topic. The study was aimed to model, in a spatial sense, the soil radioactivity in an urban and peri-urban soils area in southern Italy to analyse the seasonal influence on soil radioactivity. Measures of gamma radiation naturally emitted through the decay of radioactive isotopes (potassium, uranium and thorium) were analysed using a geostatistical approach to map the spatial distribution of soil radioactivity. The activity of three radionuclides was measured at 181 locations using a high-resolution ?-ray spectrometry. To take into account the influence of season, the measurements were carried out in summer and in winter. Activity data were analysed by using a geostatistical approach and zones of relatively high or low radioactivity were delineated. Among the main processes which influence natural radioactivity such as geology, geochemical, pedological, and ecological processes, results of this study showed a prominent control of radio-emission measurements by seasonal changes. Low natural radioactivity levels were measured in December associated with winter weather and moist soil conditions (due to high rainfall and low temperature), and higher activity values in July, when the soil was dry and no precipitations occurred.

  17. Prospective elementary teachers' perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazio, Claudio; di Paola, Benedetto; Guastella, Ivan

    2012-06-01

    In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  18. Prospective elementary teachers’ perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Fazio

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  19. Describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling: A case study of universities in Ardabil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghahremani Germi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Empowerment is still on the agenda as a management concept and has become a widely used management term in the last decade or so. The purpose of this research was describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling (SEM at Ardabil universities. Two hundred and twenty managers of Ardabil universities including chancellors, managers, and vice presidents of education, research, and studies participated in this study. Clear and challenging goals, evaluation of function, access to resources, and rewarding were investigated. The results indicated that the designed SEM for empowering managers at university reflects a good fitness level. As it stands out, the conceptual model in the society under investigation was used appropriately. Among variables, access to resources with 88 per cent of load factor was known as the affective variable. Evaluation of function containing 51 per cent of load factor was recognized to have less effect. Results of average rating show that evaluation of function and access to resources with 2.62 coefficients stand at first level. Due to this, they had great impact on managers' empowerment. The results of the analysis provided compelling evidence that model of empowering managers was desirable at Ardabil universities.

  20. A design process for using normative models in shared decision making: a case study in the context of prenatal testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, Sivan; Leshno, Moshe; Fink, Lior

    2014-12-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) encourages the patient to play a more active role in the process of medical consultation and its primary objective is to find the best treatment for a specific patient. Recent findings, however, show that patient preferences cannot be easily or accurately judged on the basis of communicative exchange during routine office visits, even for patients who seek to expand their role in medical decision making (MDM). The objective of this study is to improve the quality of patient-physician communication by developing a novel design process for SDM and then demonstrating, through a case study, the applicability of this process in enabling the use of a normative model for a specific medical situation. Our design process goes through the following stages: definition of medical situation and decision problem, development/identification of normative model, adaptation of normative model, empirical analysis and development of decision support systems (DSS) tools that facilitate the SDM process in the specific medical situation. This study demonstrates the applicability of the process through the implementation of the general normative theory of MDM under uncertainty for the medical-financial dilemma of choosing a physician to perform amniocentesis. The use of normative models in SDM raises several issues, such as the goal of the normative model, the relation between the goals of prediction and recommendation, and the general question of whether it is valid to use a normative model for people who do not behave according to the model's assumptions. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Dealing with Dependent Uncertainty in Modelling: A Comparative Study Case through the Airy Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Cortés

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of uncertainty in differential equations leads to the emergent area of random differential equations. Under this approach, inputs become random variables and/or stochastic processes. Often one assumes that inputs are independent, a hypothesis that simplifies the mathematical treatment although it could not be met in applications. In this paper, we analyse, through the Airy equation, the influence of statistical dependence of inputs on the output, computing its expectation and standard deviation by Fröbenius and Polynomial Chaos methods. The results are compared with Monte Carlo sampling. The analysis is conducted by the Airy equation since, as in the deterministic scenario its solutions are highly oscillatory, it is expected that differences will be better highlighted. To illustrate our study, and motivated by the ubiquity of Gaussian random variables in numerous practical problems, we assume that inputs follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution throughout the paper. The application of Fröbenius method to solve Airy equation is based on an extension of the method to the case where inputs are dependent. The numerical results show that the existence of statistical dependence among the inputs and its magnitude entails changes on the variability of the output.

  2. An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kijl, Björn; Boersma, Durk

    2010-01-01

    Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in

  3. RESOLVING NEIGHBORHOOD-SCALE AIR TOXICS MODELING: A CASE STUDY IN WILMINGTON, CALIFORNIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is useful for characterizing exposures to air pollutants. While models typically provide results on regional scales, there is a need for refined modeling approaches capable of resolving concentrations on the scale of tens of meters, across modeling domains 1...

  4. Holocene glacier variability: three case studies using an intermediate-complexity climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2003-01-01

    Synthetic glacier length records are generated for the Holocene epoch using a process-based glacier model coupled to the intermediate-complexity climate model ECBilt. The glacier model consists of a massbalance component and an ice-flow component. The climate model is forced by the insolation change

  5. Emerging Business Models in Education Provisioning: A Case Study on Providing Learning Support as Education-as-a-Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loina Prifti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to give a deeper understanding on emerging business models in the context of education. Industry 4.0/the Industrial Internet in general and especially recent advances in cloud computing enable a new kind of service offering in the education sector and lead to new business models for education: Education-as-a-Service (EaaS. Within EaaS, learning, and teaching contents are delivered as services. By combining a literature review with a qualitative case study, this paper makes a three-fold contribution to the field of business models in education: First, we provide a theoretical definition for a common understanding of EaaS. Second, we present the state-of-the-art research on this new paradigm. Third, in the case study we describe a “best practices” business model of an existing EaaS provider. These insights build a theoretical foundation for further research in this area. The paper concludes with a research agenda for further research in this emerging field.

  6. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  7. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    , however, it is not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  8. Building new business model from multiple case study research in the Internet of Me

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruggieri Roberto

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The digital revolution has greatly changed the approach to culture, work, leisure time, the way we interact and communicate with people: the digitization of information has taken root and has become essential in all areas of social life as a phenomenon that guides and monitors the transformation of society in all its various forms, bringing great changes in almost all areas and especially in the world of work and industry. One of the core elements of the fourth industrial revolution is the systematic application of IoT technologies (Internet of Things and IoM (Internet of Me to production processes on a global scale. This study seeks to identify the main decision in the IoT/IoM pattern innovation, more specifically, the purpose of the paper is primarily an analysis of what are the possible future benefits of IoT and IoM, trying to understand the effort and their opportunities for a consumer oriented business. Then to analyze the competitive advantage that companies are pursuing when they implement a business which is IoT/IoM oriented. Our research aims to address the following two research questions: 1Does exist a well-structured business model for the companies IoT/IoM service oriented? and 2Is it possible to standardize behavioral pattern and to draw guidelines for companies who want to start similar strategic management? The research presents two phases methodologically joined between them: from a theoretical point of view it is defined the change from the business model towards the “ecosystem” of business model in the strategy IoT/IoM oriented, and from a empirical point of view the business development of an Italian start-up first mover group in the sectors involved in IoT and IoM revolution, through the direct interview qualitative tool.

  9. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-04-03

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  10. Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  11. Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  12. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onut, S; Kamber, M R; Altay, G

    2014-01-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time

  13. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

    2014-03-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

  14. The Research on Informal Learning Model of College Students Based on SNS and Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Peng; Cong, Xiao; Bi, Fangyan; Zhou, Dongdai

    2017-03-01

    With the rapid development of network technology, informal learning based on online become the main way for college students to learn a variety of subject knowledge. The favor to the SNS community of students and the characteristics of SNS itself provide a good opportunity for the informal learning of college students. This research first analyzes the related research of the informal learning and SNS, next, discusses the characteristics of informal learning and theoretical basis. Then, it proposed an informal learning model of college students based on SNS according to the support role of SNS to the informal learning of students. Finally, according to the theoretical model and the principles proposed in this study, using the Elgg and related tools which is the open source SNS program to achieve the informal learning community. This research is trying to overcome issues such as the lack of social realism, interactivity, resource transfer mode in the current network informal learning communities, so as to provide a new way of informal learning for college students.

  15. Model of Chinese Household Kitchen Waste Separation Behavior: A Case Study in Beijing City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalin Yuan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High participation rates by the public in authority projects are key in increasing resident recycling levels. Understanding waste separation behavior is crucial to achieving sustainable waste management within such household-based schemes. To identify the driving forces behind the seldom-discussed kitchen garbage separation behavior, five psychological factors, namely, attitude, perceived behavior control, subjective norms, moral norms, and responsibility denial, are established. Our data originate from a social study of Beijing citizens conducted in July 2013 (n = 362. Through structural equation modeling, we find that moral norms are consistently the most important predictor of household kitchen waste (KW separation behavior. Subjective norms have a larger effect on such behavior than responsibility denial. Data analysis shows that perceived behavior control contributes significantly and independently to the explanation of such behavior. By contrast, attitude towards KW separation is found to be significantly negatively correlated with separation behavior. In conclusion, the model with direct and indirect effects of psychological factors explains 50.3% of the variance in household KW source separation behavior. Implications of the results for the promotion of household KW separation programs are discussed.

  16. The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Luquero, Francisco J; Naibei, Nathan; Touré, Brahima; Allan, Maya; Porten, Klaudia; Lessler, Justin; Rinaldo, Andrea; Azman, Andrew S

    2018-02-01

    Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in

  17. A Bayesian Stepwise Discriminant Model for Predicting Risk Factors of Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li-Xia; Sun, Yang; Zhao, Hai; Zhu, Na; Sun, Xing-De; Jin, Xing; Zou, Ai-Min; Mi, Yang; Xu, Ji-Ru

    2017-10-20

    Preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM) can lead to serious consequences such as intrauterine infection, prolapse of the umbilical cord, and neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Genital infection is a very important risk which closely related with PPROM. The preliminary study only made qualitative research on genital infection, but there was no deep and clear judgment about the effects of pathogenic bacteria. This study was to analyze the association of infections with PPROM in pregnant women in Shaanxi, China, and to establish Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis to predict the incidence of PPROM. In training group, the 112 pregnant women with PPROM were enrolled in the case subgroup, and 108 normal pregnant women in the control subgroup using an unmatched case-control method. The sociodemographic characteristics of these participants were collected by face-to-face interviews. Vaginal excretions from each participant were sampled at 28-36+6 weeks of pregnancy using a sterile swab. DNA corresponding to Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Ureaplasma urealyticum (UU), Candida albicans, group B streptococci (GBS), herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1), and HSV-2 were detected in each participant by real-time polymerase chain reaction. A model of Bayesian discriminant analysis was established and then verified by a multicenter validation group that included 500 participants in the case subgroup and 500 participants in the control subgroup from five different hospitals in the Shaanxi province, respectively. The sociological characteristics were not significantly different between the case and control subgroups in both training and validation groups (all P > 0.05). In training group, the infection rates of UU (11.6% vs. 3.7%), CT (17.0% vs. 5.6%), and GBS (22.3% vs. 6.5%) showed statistically different between the case and control subgroups (all P case and control subgroups (P case and control subgroup were 84.1% and 86.8% in the training and validation groups, respectively

  18. Towards a three-component model of fan loyalty: a case study of Chinese youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-xiao; Liu, Li; Zhao, Xian; Zheng, Jian; Yang, Meng; Zhang, Ji-qi

    2015-01-01

    The term "fan loyalty" refers to the loyalty felt and expressed by a fan towards the object of his/her fanaticism in both everyday and academic discourses. However, much of the literature on fan loyalty has paid little attention to the topic from the perspective of youth pop culture. The present study explored the meaning of fan loyalty in the context of China. Data were collected by the method of in-depth interviews with 16 young Chinese people aged between 19 and 25 years who currently or once were pop fans. The results indicated that fan loyalty entails three components: involvement, satisfaction, and affiliation. These three components regulate the process of fan loyalty development, which can be divided into four stages: inception, upgrade, zenith, and decline. This model provides a conceptual explanation of why and how young Chinese fans are loyal to their favorite stars. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  19. Towards a three-component model of fan loyalty: a case study of Chinese youth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-xiao Zhang

    Full Text Available The term "fan loyalty" refers to the loyalty felt and expressed by a fan towards the object of his/her fanaticism in both everyday and academic discourses. However, much of the literature on fan loyalty has paid little attention to the topic from the perspective of youth pop culture. The present study explored the meaning of fan loyalty in the context of China. Data were collected by the method of in-depth interviews with 16 young Chinese people aged between 19 and 25 years who currently or once were pop fans. The results indicated that fan loyalty entails three components: involvement, satisfaction, and affiliation. These three components regulate the process of fan loyalty development, which can be divided into four stages: inception, upgrade, zenith, and decline. This model provides a conceptual explanation of why and how young Chinese fans are loyal to their favorite stars. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  20. Novel Integrated Multi-Criteria Model for Supplier Selection: Case Study Construction Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Stević

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain presents a very complex field involving a large number of participants. The aim of the complete supply chain is finding an optimum from the aspect of all participants, which is a rather complex task. In order to ensure optimum satisfaction for all participants, it is necessary that the beginning phase consists of correct evaluations and supplier selection. In this study, the supplier selection was performed in the construction company, on the basis of a new approach in the field of multi-criteria model. Weight coefficients were obtained by DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method, based on the rough numbers. Evaluation and the supplier selection were made on the basis of a new Rough EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution method, which presents one of the latest methods in this field. In order to determine the stability of the model and the applicability of the proposed Rough EDAS method, an extension of the COPRAS and MULTIMOORA method by rough numbers was also performed in this study, and the findings of the comparative analysis were presented. Besides the new approaches based on the extension by rough numbers, the results are also compared with the Rough MABAC (MultiAttributive Border Approximation area Comparison and Rough MAIRCA (MultiAttributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis. In addition, in the sensitivity analysis, 18 different scenarios were formed, the ones in which criteria change their original values. At the end of the sensitivity analysis, SCC (Spearman Correlation Coefficient of the obtained ranges was carried out, confirming the applicability of the proposed approaches.

  1. A modelling case study to evaluate control strategies for ozone reduction in Southwestern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castell, N.; Mantilla, E.; Salvador, R.; Stein, A. F.; Millán, M.

    2009-09-01

    Ozone is a strong oxidant and when certain concentrations are reached it has adverse effects on health, vegetation and materials. With the aim of protecting human health and ecosystems, European Directive 2008/50/EC establishes target values for ozone concentrations, to be achieved from 2010 onwards. In our study area, located in southwestern Spain, ozone levels regularly exceed the human health protection threshold defined in the European Directive. Indeed, this threshold was exceeded on 92 days in 2007, despite the fact that the Directive stipulates that it should not be exceeded on more than 25 days per calendar year averaged over three years. It is urgent, therefore, to reduce the current ozone levels, but because ozone is a secondary pollutant, this reduction must necessarily involve limiting the emission of its precursors, primarily nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating re-circulations of pollutants. The complex topography of the area induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. In this study two ozone pollution episodes have been selected to assess the ozone response to reductions in NOx and VOC emissions from industry and traffic. The first corresponds to a typical summer episode, with the development of breezes in an anticyclonic situation with low gradient pressure and high temperatures, while the second episode presents a configuration characteristic of spring or early summer, with a smooth westerly flow and more moderate temperatures. Air pollution studies in complex terrain require the use of high-resolution models to resolve the complex

  2. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  3. Morphological modelling of the response to a shipwreck - A case study at Cape Town

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Fredsoe, Jørgen; Deigaard, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    A simulation of the morphological development and degrade of a salient behind a shipwreck located north of Cape Town, South Africa is presented. The morphological model is based on a hybrid morphological model concept which combines a 2D coastal model for calculating sediment transport with a sim......A simulation of the morphological development and degrade of a salient behind a shipwreck located north of Cape Town, South Africa is presented. The morphological model is based on a hybrid morphological model concept which combines a 2D coastal model for calculating sediment transport...

  4. A hybrid model for combining case-control and cohort studies in systematic reviews of diagnostic tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Liu, Yulun; Ning, Jing; Cormier, Janice; Chu, Haitao

    2014-01-01

    Systematic reviews of diagnostic tests often involve a mixture of case-control and cohort studies. The standard methods for evaluating diagnostic accuracy only focus on sensitivity and specificity and ignore the information on disease prevalence contained in cohort studies. Consequently, such methods cannot provide estimates of measures related to disease prevalence, such as population averaged or overall positive and negative predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that jointly models the disease prevalence along with the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity in cohort studies, and the sensitivity and specificity in case-control studies. In order to overcome the potential computational difficulties in the standard full likelihood inference of the proposed hybrid model, we propose an alternative inference procedure based on the composite likelihood. Such composite likelihood based inference does not suffer computational problems and maintains high relative efficiency. In addition, it is more robust to model mis-specifications compared to the standard full likelihood inference. We apply our approach to a review of the performance of contemporary diagnostic imaging modalities for detecting metastases in patients with melanoma. PMID:25897179

  5. Open innovation models - a case study of playing poker with chess pieces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goduscheit, René Chester; Bergenholtz, Carsten; Jørgensen, Jacob Høj

    2009-01-01

    The qualities of employing open innovation models are widely acknowledgedamong academics and practitioners. Open innovation is perceived as a meansto ensure flexibility and create options for future business. However, theorganisational challenges in employing open innovation models as opposed tom...

  6. Modelling of stormwater infiltration for stream restoration. Beder (Aarhus) case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Bockhorn, Britta; Klint, K. E.

    to assess the impact of stormwater runoff infiltration on (1) the water balance; (2) stream flow of the local stream Hovedgrøften; and (3) the risk of polluting the primary aquifer. The hydrogeological model was developed in a deterministic groundwater model (MIKE SHE) which was coupled dynamically...... carried out by developing a hydrogeological model of the Beder area in Aarhus, Denmark. The model area is characterized by the presence of a secondary unconfined aquifer that partly contributes baseflow to the local streams and partly to recharge to the underlying primary aquifer. The model was applied...... to a hydrodynamic 1-D river model (MIKE 11). Geological data based on spear mapping, geophysical data and lithology from local boreholes were used to set up the geological model. Groundwater observation and stream flow measurements were used for model calibration and validation.Different scenarios were analyzed...

  7. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, K., E-mail: zhangkaibetter@126.com; Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org; Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.ca; You, L., E-mail: youli_ncepu@126.com; Jin, S.W., E-mail: jinshuwei2014@126.com

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  8. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty--A case study of Dongying, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; You, L; Jin, S W

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, K.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; You, L.; Jin, S.W.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  10. Are transnational tobacco companies’ market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

    2013-01-01

    Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs’ efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs’ efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs’ strategies to countries’ economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs’ strategies in Korea were linked to Korea’s export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude toward foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs’ strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation. PMID:23327486

  11. Computer simulation modeling of recreation use: Current status, case studies, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2005-01-01

    This report compiles information about recent progress in the application of computer simulation modeling to planning and management of recreation use, particularly in parks and wilderness. Early modeling efforts are described in a chapter that provides an historical perspective. Another chapter provides an overview of modeling options, common data input requirements,...

  12. A procurement decision model for a video rental store — A case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    predetermined budget. The procurement decision model is evaluated by means of predicting the expected turnover using the procurement decision model solution, and then comparing it to the turnover achieved using the procurement strategy followed by the store owner. The model is not prescriptive — the decision maker ...

  13. From linear to generalized linear mixed models: A case study in repeated measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compared to traditional linear mixed models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) can offer better correspondence between response variables and explanatory models, yielding more efficient estimates and tests in the analysis of data from designed experiments. Using proportion data from a designed...

  14. Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2017-01-01

    Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

  15. Spatial Air Quality Modelling Using Chemometrics Techniques: A Case Study in Peninsular Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azman Azid; Hafizan Juahir; Mohammad Azizi Amran; Zarizal Suhaili; Mohamad Romizan Osman; Asyaari Muhamad; Asyaari Muhamad; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi

    2015-01-01

    This study shows the effectiveness of hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA), discriminant analysis (DA), principal component analysis (PCA), and multiple linear regressions (MLR) for assessment of air quality data and recognition of air pollution sources. 12 months data (January-December 2007) consisting of 14 stations in Peninsular Malaysia with 14 parameters were applied. Three significant clusters - low pollution source (LPS), moderate pollution source (MPS), and slightly high pollution source (SHPS) were generated via HACA. Forward stepwise of DA managed to discriminate eight variables, whereas backward stepwise of DA managed to discriminate nine variables out of fourteen variables. The PCA and FA results show the main contributor of air pollution in Peninsular Malaysia is the combustion of fossil fuel from industrial activities, transportation and agriculture systems. Four MLR models show that PM_1_0 account as the most and the highest pollution contributor to Malaysian air quality. From the study, it can be stipulated that the application of chemometrics techniques can disclose meaningful information on the spatial variability of a large and complex air quality data. A clearer review about the air quality and a novelty design of air quality monitoring network for better management of air pollution can be achieved via these methods. (author)

  16. Health, safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamaii, Azin; Omidvari, Manouchehr; Lotfi, Farhad Hosseinzadeh

    2017-01-01

    Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators' personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.

  17. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schneeberger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale. Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a field data, (b Delaunay triangulation, and (c a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit (> 10 % when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  18. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Raphael; de La Varga, Miguel; Egli, Daniel; Berger, Alfons; Kober, Florian; Wellmann, Florian; Herwegh, Marco

    2017-09-01

    Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal) in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland) serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing) and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site) information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale) interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale). Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a) field data, (b) Delaunay triangulation, and (c) a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit ( > 10 %) when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  19. High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2014-05-01

    Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

  20. Modelling impacts of offshore wind farms on trophic web: the Courseulles-sur-Mer case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoux, Aurore; Pezy, Jean-Philippe; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; Tecchio, samuele; Degraer, Steven; Wilhelmsson, Dan; Niquil, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    The French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy. These offshore wind farms will integrate into an ecosystem already subject to a growing number of anthropogenic disturbances such as transportation, fishing, sediment deposit, and sediment extraction. The possible effects of this cumulative stressors on ecosystem functioning are still unknown, but they could impact their resilience, making them susceptible to changes from one stable state to another. Understanding the behaviour of these marine coastal complex systems is essential in order to anticipate potential state changes, and to implement conservation actions in a sustainable manner. Currently, there are no global and integrated studies on the effects of construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms. Moreover, approaches are generally focused on the conservation of some species or groups of species. Here, we develop a holistic and integrated view of ecosystem impacts through the use of trophic webs modelling tools. Trophic models describe the interaction between biological compartments at different trophic levels and are based on the quantification of flow of energy and matter in ecosystems. They allow the application of numerical methods for the characterization of emergent properties of the ecosystem, also called Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). These indices have been proposed as ecosystem health indicators as they have been demonstrated to be sensitive to different impacts on marine ecosystems. We present here in detail the strategy for analysing the potential environmental impacts of the construction of the Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (Bay of Seine) such as the reef effect through the use of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. Similar Ecopath simulations will be made in the future on the Le Tréport offshore wind farm site. Results will contribute to a better knowledge of the impacts of the offshore wind farms on ecosystems. They also allow to

  1. Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

    2015-10-01

    . Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies.

  2. Importance of Personalized Health-Care Models: A Case Study in Activity Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdravevski, Eftim; Lameski, Petre; Trajkovik, Vladimir; Pombo, Nuno; Garcia, Nuno

    2018-01-01

    Novel information and communication technologies create possibilities to change the future of health care. Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) is seen as a promising supplement of the current care models. The main goal of AAL solutions is to apply ambient intelligence technologies to enable elderly people to continue to live in their preferred environments. Applying trained models from health data is challenging because the personalized environments could differ significantly than the ones which provided training data. This paper investigates the effects on activity recognition accuracy using single accelerometer of personalized models compared to models built on general population. In addition, we propose a collaborative filtering based approach which provides balance between fully personalized models and generic models. The results show that the accuracy could be improved to 95% with fully personalized models, and up to 91.6% with collaborative filtering based models, which is significantly better than common models that exhibit accuracy of 85.1%. The collaborative filtering approach seems to provide highly personalized models with substantial accuracy, while overcoming the cold start problem that is common for fully personalized models.

  3. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework – Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Glarborg, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer-aided...... methods provide. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task involving...... numerous steps, expert skills and different modelling tools. This motivates the development of a computer-aided modelling framework that supports the user during model development, documentation, analysis, identification, application and re-use with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modelling...

  4. Septic Systems Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    A collection of septic systems case studies to help community planners, elected officials, health department staff, state officials, and interested citizens explore alternatives for managing their decentralized wastewater treatment systems.

  5. HYDROGEOLOGIC CASE STUDIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrogeology is the foundation of subsurface site characterization for evaluations of monitored natural attenuation (MNA). Three case studies are presented. Examples of the potentially detrimental effects of drilling additives on ground-water samples from monitoring wells are d...

  6. A Psychobiographical Case Study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    man, and cancer fighter. This psychobiographical case study entailed a psychosocial-historical ... does not draw more attention as a research method, as this approach has .... of the applied Levinsonian theory to the life of Jobs against the ...

  7. Procedural 3d Modelling for Traditional Settlements. The Case Study of Central Zagori

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitsakis, D.; Tsiliakou, E.; Labropoulos, T.; Dimopoulou, E.

    2017-02-01

    Over the last decades 3D modelling has been a fast growing field in Geographic Information Science, extensively applied in various domains including reconstruction and visualization of cultural heritage, especially monuments and traditional settlements. Technological advances in computer graphics, allow for modelling of complex 3D objects achieving high precision and accuracy. Procedural modelling is an effective tool and a relatively novel method, based on algorithmic modelling concept. It is utilized for the generation of accurate 3D models and composite facade textures from sets of rules which are called Computer Generated Architecture grammars (CGA grammars), defining the objects' detailed geometry, rather than altering or editing the model manually. In this paper, procedural modelling tools have been exploited to generate the 3D model of a traditional settlement in the region of Central Zagori in Greece. The detailed geometries of 3D models derived from the application of shape grammars on selected footprints, and the process resulted in a final 3D model, optimally describing the built environment of Central Zagori, in three levels of Detail (LoD). The final 3D scene was exported and published as 3D web-scene which can be viewed with 3D CityEngine viewer, giving a walkthrough the whole model, same as in virtual reality or game environments. This research work addresses issues regarding textures' precision, LoD for 3D objects and interactive visualization within one 3D scene, as well as the effectiveness of large scale modelling, along with the benefits and drawbacks that derive from procedural modelling techniques in the field of cultural heritage and more specifically on 3D modelling of traditional settlements.

  8. A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trucco, P.; Cagno, E.; Ruggeri, F.; Grande, O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational and organisational conditions. The linkage can be exploited in different ways, especially to support identification and evaluation of risk control options also at the organisational level. Conditional probabilities for the BBN have been estimated by means of experts' judgments, collected from an international panel of different European countries. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out over the model to identify configurations of the MTS leading to a significant reduction of accident probability during the operation of the HSC

  9. Evaluating MODIS snow products for modelling snowmelt runoff: Case study of the Rio Grande headwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Caitriana; Dialesandro, John; James, Darren; Elias, Emile; Rango, Albert; Bleiweiss, Max

    2017-12-01

    Snow-covered area (SCA) is a key variable in the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) and in other models for simulating discharge from snowmelt. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM +) or Operational Land Imager (OLI) provide remotely sensed data at an appropriate spatial resolution for mapping SCA in small headwater basins, but the temporal resolution of the data is low and may not always provide sufficient cloud-free dates. The coarser spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) offers better temporal resolution and in cloudy years, MODIS data offer the best alternative for mapping snow cover when finer spatial resolution data are unavailable. However, MODIS' coarse spatial resolution (500 m) can obscure fine spatial patterning in snow cover and some MODIS products are not sensitive to end-of-season snow cover. In this study, we aimed to test MODIS snow products for use in simulating snowmelt runoff from smaller headwater basins by a) comparing maps of TM and MODIS-based SCA and b) determining how SRM streamflow simulations are changed by the different estimates of seasonal snow depletion. We compared gridded MODIS snow products (Collection 5 MOD10A1 fractional and binary SCA; SCA derived from Collection 6 MOD10A1 Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) Snow Cover), and the MODIS Snow Covered-Area and Grain size retrieval (MODSCAG) canopy-corrected fractional SCA (SCAMG), with reference SCA maps (SCAREF) generated from binary classification of TM imagery. SCAMG showed strong agreement with SCAREF; excluding true negatives (where both methods agreed no snow was present) the median percent difference between SCAREF and SCAMG ranged between -2.4% and 4.7%. We simulated runoff for each of the four study years using SRM populated with and calibrated for snow depletion curves derived from SCAREF. We then substituted in each of the MODIS-derived depletion curves. With efficiency coefficients ranging between 0.73 and 0.93, SRM

  10. Qualitative Case Study Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Introduction to Sociological Methods. 2nd ed. New York, McGraw-Hill 14. Denzin , N. K. and Lincoln , Y. S. (2011) The SAGE Handbook of Qualitative...The Art of Science. In: Denzin , N. K. and Lincoln , Y. S. (eds.) Handbook of Qualitative Research. Thousand Oaks, Sage 19. GAO (1990) Case Study...Rinehart & Winston 39. Stake, R. E. (1994) Case Studies. In: Denzin , N. K. and Lincoln , Y. S. (eds.) Handbook of Qualitative Research. Thousand Oaks, Sage

  11. Applying a contingency model of strategic decision making to the implementation of smoking bans: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemsen, M C; Meijer, A; Jannink, M

    1999-08-01

    A model of strategic decision making was applied to study the implementation of worksite smoking policy. This model assumes there is no best way of implementing smoking policies, but that 'the best way' depends on how decision making fits specific content and context factors. A case study at Wehkamp, a mail-order company, is presented to illustrate the usefulness of this model to understand how organizations implement smoking policies. Interview data were collected from representatives of Wehkamp, and pre- and post-ban survey data were collected from employees. After having failed to solve the smoking problem in a more democratic way, Wehkamp's top management choose a highly confrontational and decentralized decision-making approach to implement a complete smoking ban. This resulted in an effective smoking ban, but was to some extent at the cost of employees' satisfaction with the policy and with how the policy was implemented. The choice of implementation approach was contingent upon specific content and context factors, such as managers' perception of the problem, leadership style and legislation. More case studies from different types of companies are needed to better understand how organizational factors affect decision making about smoking bans and other health promotion innovations.

  12. Predictive performance of DSGE model for small open economy – the case study of Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Jeřábek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. From the point of view of political practice is appropriate to seek a model that reached a quality prediction performance for all the variables. As monitored variables were used GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. The paper focuses on performance prediction evaluation of the small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model for the Czech republic, where Bayesian method are used for their parameters estimation, against different types of Bayesian and naive random walk model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. The results indicate that the DSGE model generates estimates that are competitive with other models used in this paper.

  13. A case study on the influence of multiscale modelling in design and structural analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Zwierzycki, Mateusz; La Magna, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    . To illustrate the concept of multi-scale modelling, the prototype of a bridge structure that was realised making use of this information transfer between models will be presented. The prototype primarily takes advantage of the geometric and material stiffening effect of incremental metal forming. The local......The current paper discusses the role of multi-scale modelling within the context of design and structural analysis. Depending on the level of detail, a design model may retain, lose or enhance key information. The term multi-scale refers to the break-down of a design and analysis task into multiple...... levels of detail and the transfer of this information between models. Focusing on the influence that different models have on the analysed performance of the structure, the paper will discuss the advantages and trade-offs of coupling multiple levels of abstraction in terms of design and structure...

  14. Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

    2013-04-01

    Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

  15. Adoption of open source software in business models: a Red Hat and IBM case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Munga, N

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available and its position in the market identified [15]. Various types of business models are discussed in the literature. Rappa [16], using the customer relationship as the primary dimension, defines the brokerage model, information intermediary model... is growing at twice the rate of the platform business [29]. The Market After years of trying to sell to the individual consumer market, Red Hat decided to follow the money and focus its efforts on the enterprise market. The enterprise business customers...

  16. Integrative multicellular biological modeling: a case study of 3D epidermal development using GPU algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christley Scott

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Simulation of sophisticated biological models requires considerable computational power. These models typically integrate together numerous biological phenomena such as spatially-explicit heterogeneous cells, cell-cell interactions, cell-environment interactions and intracellular gene networks. The recent advent of programming for graphical processing units (GPU opens up the possibility of developing more integrative, detailed and predictive biological models while at the same time decreasing the computational cost to simulate those models. Results We construct a 3D model of epidermal development and provide a set of GPU algorithms that executes significantly faster than sequential central processing unit (CPU code. We provide a parallel implementation of the subcellular element method for individual cells residing in a lattice-free spatial environment. Each cell in our epidermal model includes an internal gene network, which integrates cellular interaction of Notch signaling together with environmental interaction of basement membrane adhesion, to specify cellular state and behaviors such as growth and division. We take a pedagogical approach to describing how modeling methods are efficiently implemented on the GPU including memory layout of data structures and functional decomposition. We discuss various programmatic issues and provide a set of design guidelines for GPU programming that are instructive to avoid common pitfalls as well as to extract performance from the GPU architecture. Conclusions We demonstrate that GPU algorithms represent a significant technological advance for the simulation of complex biological models. We further demonstrate with our epidermal model that the integration of multiple complex modeling methods for heterogeneous multicellular biological processes is both feasible and computationally tractable using this new technology. We hope that the provided algorithms and source code will be a

  17. The Models of Applying Online Privacy Literacy Strategies: A Case Study of Instagram Girl Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdollah Bicharanlou

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Social networks affect remarkably in the lives of virtual space users. These networks like most human relations involve compromising between self-disclosure and privacy protection. A process which is realized through improving privacy and empowering the user at the personal level. This study aimed to assess strategies based on online privacy literacy. In particular, strategies that Instagram young girls users should employ to achieve the optimum level of privacy. For this purpose, firstly the paradox of privacy, benefits and risks of self-disclosure are explained, then according to online privacy literacy, some social and technological strategies are introduced by which users can solve the “paradox of privacy.” In the result section, after describing the main benefits and risks of self-disclosure by girl users, the current models of using these social and technological strategies to solve the mentioned paradox are discussed. The research method is ethnography based on non-collaborative observation of Instagram pages and semi-structured interviews with 20 girl users of social networks.

  18. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  19. Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdogdu, Erkan

    2007-01-01

    In the early 2000s, the Republic of Turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market, which requires privatization, liberalization as well as a radical restructuring. The most controversial reason behind, or justification for, recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth; that is to say, the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so-called 'energy crisis'. Using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast, and comparing the results with official projections. The study concludes, first, that consumers' respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in Turkish electricity market; and second, that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand, which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

  20. Assessment of energy and economic performance of office building models: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, X. Y.; Ye, C. T.; Li, H. S.; Wang, X. L.; Ma, W. B.

    2016-08-01

    Energy consumption of building accounts for more than 37.3% of total energy consumption while the proportion of energy-saving buildings is just 5% in China. In this paper, in order to save potential energy, an office building in Southern China was selected as a test example for energy consumption characteristics. The base building model was developed by TRNSYS software and validated against the recorded data from the field work in six days out of August-September in 2013. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for energy performance of building envelope retrofitting; five envelope parameters were analyzed for assessing the thermal responses. Results indicated that the key sensitivity factors were obtained for the heat-transfer coefficient of exterior walls (U-wall), infiltration rate and shading coefficient (SC), of which the sum sensitivity factor was about 89.32%. In addition, the results were evaluated in terms of energy and economic analysis. The analysis of sensitivity validated against some important results of previous studies. On the other hand, the cost-effective method improved the efficiency of investment management in building energy.

  1. Modelling of PM10 concentration for industrialized area in Malaysia: A case study in Shah Alam

    Science.gov (United States)

    N, Norazian Mohamed; Abdullah, M. M. A.; Tan, Cheng-yau; Ramli, N. A.; Yahaya, A. S.; Fitri, N. F. M. Y.

    In Malaysia, the predominant air pollutants are suspended particulate matter (SPM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This research is on PM10 as they may trigger harm to human health as well as environment. Six distributions, namely Weibull, log-normal, gamma, Rayleigh, Gumbel and Frechet were chosen to model the PM10 observations at the chosen industrial area i.e. Shah Alam. One-year period hourly average data for 2006 and 2007 were used for this research. For parameters estimation, method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was selected. Four performance indicators that are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and prediction accuracy (PA), were applied to determine the goodness-of-fit criteria of the distributions. The best distribution that fits with the PM10 observations in Shah Alamwas found to be log-normal distribution. The probabilities of the exceedences concentration were calculated and the return period for the coming year was predicted from the cumulative density function (cdf) obtained from the best-fit distributions. For the 2006 data, Shah Alam was predicted to exceed 150 μg/m3 for 5.9 days in 2007 with a return period of one occurrence per 62 days. For 2007, the studied area does not exceed the MAAQG of 150 μg/m3

  2. Modeling of Iranian Cheetah Habitat using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (Case Study: Dare Anjir Wildlife Refuge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zamani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of habitat sustainability indexes is essential in wildlife management and conservation of rare species. Suitable habitats are required in wildlife managements and conservation also, they increase reproduction and survival rate of species. In this study in order to mapping habitat sustainability and recognizing habitat requirements of Iranian Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, field data from Dare Anjir  wildlife refuge were collected since autumn 2009 until summer 2011. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis approach has been used to develop habitat suitability model. In this method primary maps of  habitat variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, distance from water sources and environmental monitoring stations have been produced by Idrisi and Biomapper software and imported in Biomapper. The output scores obtained from the analysis showed that Iranian cheetah tends to mountain areas where has more topographical features for camouflage in order to hunting, and northern aspects which have more humidity, denser vegetation cover and more preys . Our result showed that the Iranian cheetah has medium niche width and prefer marginal habitats.

  3. Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems: A Case Study in a Plastic Manufacturing Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francine Comunello

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The environmental issue has been discussed sharply in the organizational environment, as consumers, and society in general, have been increasingly concerned about the environment. In this sense, the companies, especially the factories, seek to minimize the environmental impact caused by its production processes through actions that combine the organization's economic interests with environmental concerns. Thus, this article aims to analyze how environmental management of the productive sector is being carried out at Industria Beta Chapecó/SC. Therefore, we developed a qualitative and descriptive research in order to apply the Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems (MAASPI in the production of Industria Beta sector. The results showed the main environmental interventions caused by the production process of the organization, particularly the interventions for the consumption of electricity, plant location and chip storage. As main proposals to minimize negative environmental impacts, we have the installation of translucent tiles in the production environment, a study on energy efficiency, construction of water and soil testing, construction of waste storage terminals and implementation of the pre-selection of the raw material. The realization of the suggested adjustments enables Industria Beta to foresee the legal environmental requirements, to aim for enviromental certifications and seals and to strengthen its image as environment-friendly with collaborators and society in general.

  4. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-01-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  5. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  6. Design multiperiod optimization model for the electricity sector under uncertainty – A case study of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betancourt-Torcat, Alberto; Almansoori, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Generic and novel multiperiod stochastic model is developed for UAE power sector. • The presented model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programing problem. • Power infrastructure over 25 years is outlined under natural gas price uncertainty. • Low electricity prices and better social and environmental benefits were obtained. - Abstract: In this study, a multiperiod model that considers uncertainty in the gas feedstock fuel price is developed for the optimal design of electric power systems. The optimization problem was formulated as a multiperiod stochastic programming model using the GAMS® modeling system. Previous studies have analyzed the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) power infrastructure either using a deterministic point of view or simulation tools (e.g., MESSAGE and MARKAL). These previous research has demonstrated that natural gas will remain playing a significant role as key feedstock fuel in the UAE’s power sector. However, the present work is designed to be the first to consider different supply options for the natural gas feedstock (i.e., domestic, pipeline imports, and LNG imports) and electricity imports in the UAE power sector. Moreover, the natural gas supply and electricity import options are considered to be decision variables in the problem’s formulation. Additionally, the considered case studies assumed a realistically existing power infrastructure for the UAE, whereas previous works considered the planning of the UAE power infrastructure as a Greenfield project. Also, to the authors’ knowledge this is the first work to consider a robust optimization model for planning the UAE power infrastructure under uncertainty in the long term horizon. The model was used to study the planning of the power plant infrastructure in the UAE between 2015 and 2040 under uncertainty in the natural gas price. The optimization results show that the model is a valuable tool for planning the optimal power plant infrastructure of the

  7. The application of SVR model in the improvement of QbD: a case study of the extraction of podophyllotoxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Chun-Hui; Xuan, Jian-Bang; Fan, Hai-Liu; Zhao, Teng-Fei; Jiang, Jian-Lan

    2018-05-03

    In order to make a further optimization of process design via increasing the stability of design space, we brought in the model of Support Vector Regression (SVR). In this work, the extraction of podophyllotoxin was researched as a case study based on Quality by Design (QbD). We compared the fitting effect of SVR and the most used quadratic polynomial model (QPM) in QbD, and an analysis was made between the two design spaces obtained by SVR and QPM. As a result, the SVR stayed ahead of QPM in prediction accuracy, the stability of model and the generalization ability. The introduction of SVR into QbD made the extraction process of podophyllotoxin well designed and easier to control. The better fitting effect of SVR improved the application effect of QbD and the universal applicability of SVR, especially for non-linear, complicated and weak-regularity problems, widened the application field of QbD.

  8. A Steam Utility Network Model for the Evaluation of Heat Integration Retrofits – A Case Study of an Oil Refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofie Marton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a real industrial example in which the steam utility network of a refinery is modelled in order to evaluate potential Heat Integration retrofits proposed for the site. A refinery, typically, has flexibility to optimize the operating strategy for the steam system depending on the operation of the main processes. This paper presents a few examples of Heat Integration retrofit measures from a case study of a large oil refinery. In order to evaluate expected changes in fuel and electricity imports to the refinery after implementation of the proposed retrofits, a steam system model has been developed. The steam system model has been tested and validated with steady state data from three different operating scenarios and can be used to evaluate how changes to steam balances at different pressure levels would affect overall steam balances, generation of shaft power in turbines, and the consumption of fuel gas.

  9. Trait-based model development to support breeding programs. A case study for salt tolerance and rice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paleari, Livia; Movedi, Ermes; Confalonieri, Roberto

    2017-06-28

    Eco-physiological models are increasingly used to analyze G × E × M interactions to support breeding programs via the design of ideotypes for specific contexts. However, available crop models are only partly suitable for this purpose, since they often lack clear relationships between parameters and traits breeders are working on. Taking salt stress tolerance and rice as a case study, we propose a paradigm shift towards the building of ideotyping-specific models explicitly around traits involved in breeding programs. Salt tolerance is a complex trait relying on different physiological processes that can be alternatively selected to improve the overall crop tolerance. We developed a new model explicitly accounting for these traits and we evaluated its performance using data from growth chamber experiments (e.g., R 2 ranged from 0.74 to 0.94 for the biomass of different plant organs). Using the model, we were able to show how an increase in the overall tolerance can derive from completely different physiological mechanisms according to soil/water salinity dynamics. The study demonstrated that a trait-based approach can increase the usefulness of mathematical models for supporting breeding programs.

  10. Combining integrated river modelling and agent based social simulation for river management; The case study of the Grensmaas project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkering, P.; Krywkow, Jorg; Rotmans, J.; van der Veen, A.; Douben, N.; van Os, A.G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we present a coupled Integrated River Model – Agent Based Social Simulation model (IRM-ABSS) for river management. The models represent the case of the ongoing river engineering project “Grensmaas”. In the ABSS model stakeholders are represented as computer agents negotiating a river

  11. Multiobjective optimization model of intersection signal timing considering emissions based on field data: A case study of Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Weibin; Chen, Xumei; Yu, Lei; Gong, Huibo

    2018-04-18

    Most existing signal timing models are aimed to minimize the total delay and stops at intersections, without considering environmental factors. This paper analyzes the trade-off between vehicle emissions and traffic efficiencies on the basis of field data. First, considering the different operating modes of cruising, acceleration, deceleration, and idling, field data of emissions and Global Positioning System (GPS) are collected to estimate emission rates for heavy-duty and light-duty vehicles. Second, multiobjective signal timing optimization model is established based on a genetic algorithm to minimize delay, stops, and emissions. Finally, a case study is conducted in Beijing. Nine scenarios are designed considering different weights of emission and traffic efficiency. The results compared with those using Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010 show that signal timing optimized by the model proposed in this paper can decrease vehicles delay and emissions more significantly. The optimization model can be applied in different cities, which provides supports for eco-signal design and development. Vehicle emissions are heavily at signal intersections in urban area. The multiobjective signal timing optimization model is proposed considering the trade-off between vehicle emissions and traffic efficiencies on the basis of field data. The results indicate that signal timing optimized by the model proposed in this paper can decrease vehicle emissions and delays more significantly. The optimization model can be applied in different cities, which provides supports for eco-signal design and development.

  12. Fishing inside or outside? A case studies analysis of potential spillover effect from marine protected areas, using food web models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colléter, Mathieu; Gascuel, Didier; Albouy, Camille; Francour, Patrice; Tito de Morais, Luis; Valls, Audrey; Le Loc'h, François

    2014-11-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are implemented worldwide as an efficient tool to preserve biodiversity and protect ecosystems. We used food web models (Ecopath and EcoTroph) to assess the ability of MPAs to reduce fishing impacts on targeted resources and to provide biomass exports for adjacent fisheries. Three coastal MPAs: Bonifacio and Port-Cros (Mediterranean Sea), and Bamboung (Senegalese coast), were used as case studies. Pre-existing related Ecopath models were homogenized and ecosystem characteristics were compared based on network indices and trophic spectra analyses. Using the EcoTroph model, we simulated different fishing mortality scenarios and assessed fishing impacts on the three ecosystems. Lastly, the potential biomass that could be exported from each MPA was estimated. Despite structural and functional trophic differences, the three MPAs showed similar patterns of resistance to simulated fishing mortalities, with the Bonifacio case study exhibiting the highest potential catches and a slightly inferior resistance to fishing. We also show that the potential exports from our small size MPAs are limited and thus may only benefit local fishing activities. Based on simulations, their potential exports were estimated to be at the same order of magnitude as the amount of catch that could have been obtained inside the reserve. In Port Cros, the ban of fishing inside MPA could actually allow for improved catch yields outside the MPA due to biomass exports. This was not the case for the Bonifacio site, as its potential exports were too low to offset catch losses. This insight suggests the need for MPA networks and/or sufficiently large MPAs to effectively protect juveniles and adults and provide important exports. Finally, we discuss the effects of MPAs on fisheries that were not considered in food web models, and conclude by suggesting possible improvements in the analysis of MPA efficiency.

  13. Quantification of structural uncertainties in multi-scale models; case study of the Lublin Basin, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepszy, Zbigniew; Szynkaruk, Ewa

    2015-04-01

    The multiscale static modeling of regional structure of the Lublin Basin is carried on in the Polish Geological Institute, in accordance with principles of integrated 3D geological modelling. The model is based on all available geospatial data from Polish digital databases and analogue archives. Mapped regional structure covers the area of 260x80 km located between Warsaw and Polish-Ukrainian border, along NW-SE-trending margin of the East European Craton. Within the basin, the Paleozoic beds with coalbearing Carboniferous and older formations containing hydrocarbons and unconventional prospects are covered unconformably by Permo-Mesozoic and younger rocks. Vertical extent of the regional model is set from topographic surface to 6000 m ssl and at the bottom includes some Proterozoic crystalline formations of the craton. The project focuses on internal consistency of the models built at different scales - from basin (small) scale to field-scale (large-scale). The models, nested in the common structural framework, are being constructed with regional geological knowledge, ensuring smooth transition in the 3D model resolution and amount of geological detail. Major challenge of the multiscale approach to subsurface modelling is the assessment and consistent quantification of various types of geological uncertainties tied to those various scale sub-models. Decreasing amount of information with depth and, particularly, very limited data collected below exploration targets, as well as accuracy and quality of data, all have the most critical impact on the modelled structure. In deeper levels of the Lublin Basin model, seismic interpretation of 2D surveys is sparsely tied to well data. Therefore time-to-depth conversion carries one of the major uncertainties in the modeling of structures, especially below 3000 m ssl. Furthermore, as all models at different scales are based on the same dataset, we must deal with different levels of generalization of geological structures. The

  14. Solving scheduling problems by untimed model checking. The clinical chemical analyser case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Margaria, T.; Wijs, Anton J.; Massink, M.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Bortnik, Elena M.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we show how scheduling problems can be modelled in untimed process algebra, by using special tick actions. A minimal-cost trace leading to a particular action, is one that minimises the number of tick steps. As a result, we can use any (timed or untimed) model checking tool to find

  15. Evaluation of a collaborative model: a case study analysis of watershed planning in the intermountain west

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary Bentrup

    2001-01-01

    Collaborative planning processes have become increasingly popular for addressing environmental planning issues, resulting in a number of conceptual models for collaboration. A model proposed by Selin and Chavez suggests that collaboration emerges from a series of antecedents and then proceeds sequentially through problem-setting, direction-setting, implementation, and...

  16. The influence of multi-season imagery on models of canopy cover: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Dennis M. Jacobs; Chris R. King; Ivey C. Elmore

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying tree canopy cover in a spatially explicit fashion is important for broad-scale monitoring of ecosystems and for management of natural resources. Researchers have developed empirical models of tree canopy cover to produce geospatial products. For subpixel models, percent tree canopy cover estimates (derived from fine-scale imagery) serve as the response...

  17. Modeling and identification for high-performance robot control : an RRR-robotic arm case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kostic, D.; Jager, de A.G.; Steinbuch, M.; Hensen, R.H.A.

    2004-01-01

    We explain a procedure for getting models of robot kinematics and dynamics that are appropriate for robot control design. The procedure consists of the following steps: (i) derivation of robot kinematic and dynamic models and establishing correctness of their structures; (ii) experimental estimation

  18. Open innovation models - a case study of playing poker with chess pieces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goduscheit, René Chester; Jørgensen, Jacob Høj; Bergenholtz, Carsten

    2010-01-01

    The benefits of employing open innovation models are widely acknowledged among academics and practitioners. However, the organizational challenges in employing open innovation models as opposed to more closed ones are not extensively explored in the literature. This paper addresses these organiza...

  19. Code Generation by Model Transformation : A Case Study in Transformation Modularity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hemel, Z.; Kats, L.C.L.; Visser, E.

    2008-01-01

    Preprint of paper published in: Theory and Practice of Model Transformations (ICMT 2008), Lecture Notes in Computer Science 5063; doi:10.1007/978-3-540-69927-9_13 The realization of model-driven software development requires effective techniques for implementing code generators for domain-specific

  20. CREATING AND EVALUATING SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODELS – A CROSS-INDUSTRY CASE STUDY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Annabeth

    of understanding, creating and evaluating businesses and their business models. The objective of this article is to explore how sustainable business models can be created and evaluated across different companies and industrial contexts. Although many authors have stressed the business potentials of sustainable...

  1. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  2. Introducing the Clean-Tech Adoption Model: A California Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlveld, P.C. (Paul); Riezebos, P. (Peter); Wierstra, E. (Erik)

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. The Clean-Tech Adoption Model (C-TAM) explains the adoption process of clean technology. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Usage of Technology (UTAUT) combined with qualitative research and empirical data gathering, the model predicts adoption based on the perceived quality,

  3. Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbrook-Johnson, Peter; Badham, Jennifer; Gilbert, Nigel

    2017-08-01

    Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

  4. Moderating Factors of Video-Modeling with Other as Model: A Meta-Analysis of Single-Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Rose A.; Ganz, Jennifer B.; Parker, Richard I.; Burke, Mack D.; Camargo, Siglia P.

    2012-01-01

    Video modeling with other as model (VMO) is a more practical method for implementing video-based modeling techniques, such as video self-modeling, which requires significantly more editing. Despite this, identification of contextual factors such as participant characteristics and targeted outcomes that moderate the effectiveness of VMO has not…

  5. Identifiability of large-scale non-linear dynamic network models applied to the ADM1-case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimmegeers, Philippe; Lauwers, Joost; Telen, Dries; Logist, Filip; Impe, Jan Van

    2017-06-01

    In this work, both the structural and practical identifiability of the Anaerobic Digestion Model no. 1 (ADM1) is investigated, which serves as a relevant case study of large non-linear dynamic network models. The structural identifiability is investigated using the probabilistic algorithm, adapted to deal with the specifics of the case study (i.e., a large-scale non-linear dynamic system of differential and algebraic equations). The practical identifiability is analyzed using a Monte Carlo parameter estimation procedure for a 'non-informative' and 'informative' experiment, which are heuristically designed. The model structure of ADM1 has been modified by replacing parameters by parameter combinations, to provide a generally locally structurally identifiable version of ADM1. This means that in an idealized theoretical situation, the parameters can be estimated accurately. Furthermore, the generally positive structural identifiability results can be explained from the large number of interconnections between the states in the network structure. This interconnectivity, however, is also observed in the parameter estimates, making uncorrelated parameter estimations in practice difficult. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  7. Risk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Neil R.; Wagener, Thorsten; Wheater, Howard S.; Chapra, Steven C.

    2003-04-01

    A model of phytoplankton, dissolved oxygen and nutrients is presented and applied to the Charles River, Massachusetts within a framework of Monte Carlo simulation. The model parameters are conditioned using data from eight sampling stations along a 40 km stretch of the Charles River, during a (supposed) steady-state period in the summer of 1996, and the conditioned model is evaluated using data from later in the same year. Regional multi-objective sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters and pollution sources most affecting the various model outputs under the conditions observed during that summer. The effects of Monte Carlo sampling error are included in this analysis, and the observations which have least contributed to model conditioning are indicated. It is shown that the sensitivity analysis can be used to speculate about the factors responsible for undesirable levels of eutrophication, and to speculate about the risk of failure of nutrient reduction interventions at a number of strategic control sections. The analysis indicates that phosphorus stripping at the CRPCD wastewater treatment plant on the Charles River would be a high-risk intervention, especially for controlling eutrophication at the control sections further downstream. However, as the risk reflects the perceived scope for model error, it can only be recommended that more resources are invested in data collection and model evaluation. Furthermore, as the risk is based solely on water quality criteria, rather than broader environmental and economic objectives, the results need to be supported by detailed and extensive knowledge of the Charles River problem.

  8. Strategic planning model for Startups: A case study of Iranian packaging industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mahdavi Mazdeh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In today’s turbulent and competitive world, strategic planning plays an important role for the success of firms. Despite the fact that there are literally numerous models proposed for different companies in various states and structures, the possibility of using strategic planning for startups has never been seriously considered. In this paper, we present a survey by asking experts to find out whether strategic planning is suitable for startups. We also propose a model for strategic planning in startups based on the strategic planning models for small businesses and entrepreneurship concepts. The model is similar to other models and what differentiates this models form other approaches is the methodology used for internal and external analysis and the parameters taken into consideration. The proposed model is examined on an Iranian food packaging industry for validation. The preliminary results indicate that the success of startups depends on two sets of parameters: “entrepreneurial opportunities” and “competitive advantages and entrepreneurial characteristics”.

  9. Model reduction of multiscale chemical langevin equations: a numerical case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulos, Vassilios; Contou-Carrere, Marie-Nathalie; Daoutidis, Prodromos; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

    2009-01-01

    Two very important characteristics of biological reaction networks need to be considered carefully when modeling these systems. First, models must account for the inherent probabilistic nature of systems far from the thermodynamic limit. Often, biological systems cannot be modeled with traditional continuous-deterministic models. Second, models must take into consideration the disparate spectrum of time scales observed in biological phenomena, such as slow transcription events and fast dimerization reactions. In the last decade, significant efforts have been expended on the development of stochastic chemical kinetics models to capture the dynamics of biomolecular systems, and on the development of robust multiscale algorithms, able to handle stiffness. In this paper, the focus is on the dynamics of reaction sets governed by stiff chemical Langevin equations, i.e., stiff stochastic differential equations. These are particularly challenging systems to model, requiring prohibitively small integration step sizes. We describe and illustrate the application of a semianalytical reduction framework for chemical Langevin equations that results in significant gains in computational cost.

  10. ANFIS-based modelling for photovoltaic power supply system: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, Adel [Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Department of Electronics, LAMEL, Jijel University, Ouled-Aissa, P.O. Box 98, Jijel 18000 (Algeria); Kalogirou, Soteris A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering, Cyprus University of Technology, P.O. Box 50329, Limassol 3603 (Cyprus)

    2011-01-15

    Due to the various seasonal, monthly and daily changes in meteorological data, it is relatively difficult to find a suitable model for Photovoltaic power supply (PVPS) system. This paper deals with the modelling and simulation of a PVPS system using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Scheme (ANFIS) and the proposition of a new expert configuration PVPS system. For the modelling of the PVPS system, it is required to find suitable models for its different components (ANFIS PV generator, ANFIS battery and ANFIS regulator) that could give satisfactory results under variable climatic conditions in order to test its performance and reliability. A database of measured climate data (global radiation, temperature and humidity) and electrical data (photovoltaic, battery and regulator voltage and current) of a PVPS system installed in Tahifet (south of Algeria) has been recorded for the period from 1992 to 1997. These data have been used for the modelling and simulation of the PVPS system. The results indicated that the reliability and the accuracy of the simulated system are excellent and the correlation coefficient between measured values and those estimated by the ANFIS gave a good prediction accuracy of 98%. Additionally, test results show that the ANFIS performed better than the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which has also being tried to model the system. In addition, a new configuration of an expert PVPS system is proposed in this work. The predicted electrical data by the ANFIS model can be used for several applications in PV systems. (author)

  11. Modelling Urban Sprawl Using Remotely Sensed Data: A Case Study of Chennai City, Tamilnadu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajchandar Padmanaban

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl (US, propelled by rapid population growth leads to the shrinkage of productive agricultural lands and pristine forests in the suburban areas and, in turn, adversely affects the provision of ecosystem services. The quantification of US is thus crucial for effective urban planning and environmental management. Like many megacities in fast growing developing countries, Chennai, the capital of Tamilnadu and one of the business hubs in India, has experienced extensive US triggered by the doubling of total population over the past three decades. However, the extent and level of US has not yet been quantified and a prediction for future extent of US is lacking. We employed the Random Forest (RF classification on Landsat imageries from 1991, 2003, and 2016, and computed six landscape metrics to delineate the extent of urban areas within a 10 km suburban buffer of Chennai. The level of US was then quantified using Renyi’s entropy. A land change model was subsequently used to project land cover for 2027. A 70.35% expansion in urban areas was observed mainly towards the suburban periphery of Chennai between 1991 and 2016. The Renyi’s entropy value for year 2016 was 0.9, exhibiting a two-fold level of US when compared to 1991. The spatial metrics values indicate that the existing urban areas became denser and the suburban agricultural, forests and particularly barren lands were transformed into fragmented urban settlements. The forecasted land cover for 2027 indicates a conversion of 13,670.33 ha (16.57% of the total landscape of existing forests and agricultural lands into urban areas with an associated increase in the entropy value to 1.7, indicating a tremendous level of US. Our study provides useful metrics for urban planning authorities to address the social-ecological consequences of US and to protect ecosystem services.

  12. Business Models for Mobile Media Services : A case study in China mainland market

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Jin

    2012-01-01

    Mobile media OTT service such as mobile music and mobile video is believed to be the next big revenue driver for mobile operator’s mobile broadband business. The media industry is willing to take mobile distribution channel to increase the content value. In Europe, there are already several successful cooperation cases between online media service provider and mobile operator, such as Spotify and Telia. However, with more complicated market and business environment in China, the mobile media ...

  13. BSim models for 2 case-studies of naturally and mechanically ventilated daycare institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalyanova, O.; Heiselberg, P.

    2009-06-15

    The report intends to provide complete information necessary for evaluation of assumptions made in the models and conclusions derived from the results of simulation of two different institutions in various operational modes. Thermal models are prepared for two day-care buildings, one which is mechanically ventilated and one which is naturally ventilated. All simulations were preformed in BSim, and all the models are simulated in the current version og BSim which is version 6,8,9,8. The results of the simulations showed that it is possible to reduce energy use for ventilation, both in mechanically and naturally ventilated child care center without compromising indoor air quality. (ln)

  14. Context-Aware Mobile Collaborative Systems: Conceptual Modeling and Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)</