WorldWideScience

Sample records for models case studies

  1. A warehouse design decision model: case study

    OpenAIRE

    Geraldes, Carla A. S. (Ed.); Carvalho, Maria do Sameiro; Pereira, Guilherme

    2008-01-01

    Today’s competitive and volatile market requires flexibility, quality and efficiency from the logistics operations. In this context, warehouses are an important link of the logistic chain and warehouse management plays an important role over customer's service. Throughout this work we analyze a mathematical model aiming to support warehouse management decisions. A case study is used for that purpose and the model jointly identifies product allocation to the functional areas in the warehouse, ...

  2. Mathematical modelling with case studies using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2014-01-01

    Introduction to Mathematical ModelingMathematical models An overview of the book Some modeling approaches Modeling for decision makingCompartmental Models Introduction Exponential decay and radioactivity Case study: detecting art forgeries Case study: Pacific rats colonize New Zealand Lake pollution models Case study: Lake Burley Griffin Drug assimilation into the blood Case study: dull, dizzy, or dead? Cascades of compartments First-order linear DEs Equilibrium points and stability Case study: money, money, money makes the world go aroundModels of Single PopulationsExponential growth Density-

  3. Dynamic inventory models: an illustrative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adendorff, Kris

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study revisits the subject matter of inventory control, a continual part of the activities of wide-ranging organisations internationally. The mathematical model is presented of a particular situation that deals with the regular acquisition of a material required for a production process in a volatile environment of varying demand and fluctuating price. The usual process dynamics are demonstrated against a background of diverse choices of probability density function. The model makes use of Normal and Weibull distributions.

  4. The Undergraduate Case Research Study Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Gina

    2010-01-01

    Student-written cases are powerful pedagogical tools that can lead to improved understanding of business situations, more informed analysis, emphasis on reflection, and clearer expository writing, all of which are critical skills for business students. Cases provide an opportunity for students to enjoy an active learning experience and derive the…

  5. Model Checking Software Systems: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-03-10

    gained. We suggest a radically different tack: model checking. The two formal objects compared are a finite state machine model of the software...simply terminates. 3.1.1. State Machine Model Let’s consider a simplified model with just one client, one server, and one file. The top graph

  6. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...... variables: skills, customer base and work in process. We are able to show that only minimal changes may create large effects on profit. Research limitations/implications - Our analytical model is based on both assumed but also on case documented assumptions of a concrete model. In every such kind of model...... and the number of measures. Originality/value - A large number of case studies and surveys are now present in the literature of BSC. However, there is a lack of more theoretical and analytical modelling of the BSC. Our paper just throws a little light to this modelling approach....

  7. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing p

  8. Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2008-01-01

    This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

  9. Modelling a case study in Astronomy with IMS Learning Design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin

    2009-01-01

    Burgos, D., & Tattersall, C. (2008). Modelling a case study in Astronomy with IMS Learning Design [Electronic Version]. Journal of Interactive Media in Education, 2008 from http://jime.open.ac.uk/2008/19/.

  10. Application of Time Study Model in Rice Milling Firm: A Case Study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Time Study Model in Rice Milling Firm: A Case Study. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... paper presents a case study in the development and application of a time study model in a rice milling firm.

  11. Case Studies in Modelling, Control in Food Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassey, J; Barone, A; Montague, G A; Sabou, V

    2017-01-01

    This chapter discusses the importance of modelling and control in increasing food process efficiency and ensuring product quality. Various approaches to both modelling and control in food processing are set in the context of the specific challenges in this industrial sector and latest developments in each area are discussed. Three industrial case studies are used to demonstrate the benefits of advanced measurement, modelling and control in food processes. The first case study illustrates the use of knowledge elicitation from expert operators in the process for the manufacture of potato chips (French fries) and the consequent improvements in process control to increase the consistency of the resulting product. The second case study highlights the economic benefits of tighter control of an important process parameter, moisture content, in potato crisp (chips) manufacture. The final case study describes the use of NIR spectroscopy in ensuring effective mixing of dry multicomponent mixtures and pastes. Practical implementation tips and infrastructure requirements are also discussed.

  12. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of Upstream Watershed of ... Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... of SWAT model interfaced with GIS software (MapWindow) in the prediction of stream flow of a ...

  13. Modelling Chinese Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Yüksel, Ender; Nielson, Flemming; Zhu, Huibiao; Huang, Heqing

    2012-01-01

    Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this technical report, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation and try to address the verification problem for certain quantitative properties including performance and battery consumption. We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker.

  14. Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Gustavsson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

  15. Teaching Mathematical Modelling for Earth Sciences via Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xin-She

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical modelling is becoming crucially important for earth sciences because the modelling of complex systems such as geological, geophysical and environmental processes requires mathematical analysis, numerical methods and computer programming. However, a substantial fraction of earth science undergraduates and graduates may not have sufficient skills in mathematical modelling, which is due to either limited mathematical training or lack of appropriate mathematical textbooks for self-study. In this paper, we described a detailed case-study-based approach for teaching mathematical modelling. We illustrate how essential mathematical skills can be developed for students with limited training in secondary mathematics so that they are confident in dealing with real-world mathematical modelling at university level. We have chosen various topics such as Airy isostasy, greenhouse effect, sedimentation and Stokes' flow,free-air and Bouguer gravity, Brownian motion, rain-drop dynamics, impact cratering, heat conduction and cooling of the lithosphere as case studies; and we use these step-by-step case studies to teach exponentials, logarithms, spherical geometry, basic calculus, complex numbers, Fourier transforms, ordinary differential equations, vectors and matrix algebra, partial differential equations, geostatistics and basic numeric methods. Implications for teaching university mathematics for earth scientists for tomorrow's classroom will also be discussed. Refereces 1) D. L. Turcotte and G. Schubert, Geodynamics, 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, (2002). 2) X. S. Yang, Introductory Mathematics for Earth Scientists, Dunedin Academic Press, (2009).

  16. Multidimensional Big Spatial Data Modeling Through A Case Study: Lte Rf Subsystem Power Consumption Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antón Castro, Francesc/François; Musiige, Deogratius; Mioc, Darka

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a case study for comparing different multidimensional mathematical modeling methodologies used in multidimensional spatial big data modeling and proposing a new technique. An analysis of multidimensional modeling approaches (neural networks, polynomial interpolation and homotopy...

  17. Modelling Soft Error Probability in Firmware: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DG Kourie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This case study involves an analysis of firmware that controls explosions in mining operations. The purpose is to estimate the probability that external disruptive events (such as electro-magnetic interference could drive the firmware into a state which results in an unintended explosion. Two probabilistic models are built, based on two possible types of disruptive events: a single spike of interference, and a burst of multiple spikes of interference.The models suggest that the system conforms to the IEC 61508 Safety Integrity Levels, even under very conservative assumptions of operation.The case study serves as a platform for future researchers to build on when probabilistic modelling soft errors in other contexts.

  18. Three Case Studies in Finite Element Model Updating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Imregun

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes the basic formulation of two well-established finite element model (FEM updating techniques for improved dynamic analysis, namely the response function method (RFM and the inverse eigensensitivity method (IESM. Emphasis is placed on the similarities in their mathematical formulation, numerical treatment, and on the uniqueness of the resulting updated models. Three case studies that include welded L-plate specimens, a car exhaust system, and a highway bridge were examined in some detail and measured vibration data were used throughout the investigation. It was experimentally observed that significant dynamic behavior discrepancies existed between some of the nominally identical structures, a feature that makes the task of model updating even more difficult because no unequivocal reference data exist in this particular case. Although significant improvements were obtained in all cases where the updating of the FE model was possible, it was found that the success of the updated models depended very heavily on the parameters used, such as the selection and number of the frequency points for RFM, and the selection of modes and the balancing of the sensitivity matrix for IESM. Finally, the performance of the two methods was compared from general applicability, numerical stability, and computational effort standpoints.

  19. Space engineering modeling and optimization with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pintér, János

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a selection of advanced case studies that cover a substantial range of issues and real-world challenges and applications in space engineering. Vital mathematical modeling, optimization methodologies and numerical solution aspects of each application case study are presented in detail, with discussions of a range of advanced model development and solution techniques and tools. Space engineering challenges are discussed in the following contexts: •Advanced Space Vehicle Design •Computation of Optimal Low Thrust Transfers •Indirect Optimization of Spacecraft Trajectories •Resource-Constrained Scheduling, •Packing Problems in Space •Design of Complex Interplanetary Trajectories •Satellite Constellation Image Acquisition •Re-entry Test Vehicle Configuration Selection •Collision Risk Assessment on Perturbed Orbits •Optimal Robust Design of Hybrid Rocket Engines •Nonlinear Regression Analysis in Space Engineering< •Regression-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Robust Design ...

  20. Performance Implications of Business Model Change: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Poláková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with changes in performance level introduced by the change of business model. The selected case is a small family business undergoing through substantial changes in reflection of structural changes of its markets. The authors used the concept of business model to describe value creation processes within the selected family business and by contrasting the differences between value creation processes before and after the change introduced they prove the role of business model as the performance differentiator. This is illustrated with the use of business model canvas constructed on the basis interviews, observations and document analysis. The two business model canvases allow for explanation of cause-and-effect relationships within the business leading to change in performance. The change in the performance is assessed by financial analysis of the business conducted over the period of 2006–2012 demonstrates changes in performance (comparing development of ROA, ROE and ROS having their lowest levels before the change of business model was introduced, growing after the introduction of the change, as well as the activity indicators with similar developments of the family business. The described case study contributes to the concept of business modeling with the arguments supporting its value as strategic tool facilitating decisions related to value creation within the business.

  1. Modelling soft error probability in firmware: A case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A rough and notional schematic of the components involved are supplied in ..... To date, this claim of potential electromagnetic interference is entirely a ... single spike case will illuminate the probabilistic model needed for the bursty case. For.

  2. Discrete Surface Modeling Based on Google Earth: A Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Mei, Gang; Xu, Nengxiong

    2012-01-01

    Google Earth (GE) has become a powerful tool for geological, geophysical and geographical modeling; yet GE can be accepted to acquire elevation data of terrain. In this paper, we present a real study case of building the discrete surface model (DSM) at Haut-Barr Castle in France based on the elevation data of terrain points extracted from GE using the COM API. We first locate the position of Haut-Barr Castle and determine the region of the study area, then extract elevation data of terrain at Haut-Barr, and thirdly create a planar triangular mesh that covers the study area and finally generate the desired DSM by calculating the elevation of vertices in the planar mesh via interpolating with Universal Kriging (UK) and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). The generated DSM can reflect the features of the ground surface at Haut-Barr well, and can be used for constructingthe Sealed Engineering Geological Model (SEGM) in further step.

  3. Spatial fire modeling in Mkuze Game Reserve: A case study*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G. Berjak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Controlled burning is a necessary and regular activity in Mkuze Game Reserve, South Africa. Predicting the rate and extent of fire spread in controlled burning operations is, therefore, an important management objective. In this paper we evaluate a cellular automaton model for fire spread in terms of this objective using empirical data for two case studies in Mkuze Game Reserve. Incorporating data relating to factors such as temperature reduction in the early evening, subsequent dew formation and increased fuel moisture content, the model was found to closely resemble the observed fire behaviour.

  4. Molecular modeling of protein materials: case study of elastin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarakanova, Anna; Buehler, Markus J.

    2013-09-01

    Molecular modeling of protein materials is a quickly growing area of research that has produced numerous contributions in fields ranging from structural engineering to medicine and biology. We review here the history and methods commonly employed in molecular modeling of protein materials, emphasizing the advantages for using modeling as a complement to experimental work. We then consider a case study of the protein elastin, a critically important ‘mechanical protein’ to exemplify the approach in an area where molecular modeling has made a significant impact. We outline the progression of computational modeling studies that have considerably enhanced our understanding of this important protein which endows elasticity and recoil to the tissues it is found in, including the skin, lungs, arteries and the heart. A vast collection of literature has been directed at studying the structure and function of this protein for over half a century, the first molecular dynamics study of elastin being reported in the 1980s. We review the pivotal computational works that have considerably enhanced our fundamental understanding of elastin's atomistic structure and its extraordinary qualities—focusing on two in particular: elastin's superb elasticity and the inverse temperature transition—the remarkable ability of elastin to take on a more structured conformation at higher temperatures, suggesting its effectiveness as a biomolecular switch. Our hope is to showcase these methods as both complementary and enriching to experimental approaches that have thus far dominated the study of most protein-based materials.

  5. Empirical Estimation of Hybrid Model: A Controlled Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadaf Un Nisa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP are frequently used models among all agile models whereas Rational Unified Process (RUP is one of the widely used conventional plan driven software development models. The agile and plan driven approaches both have their own strengths and weaknesses. Although RUP model has certain drawbacks, such as tendency to be over budgeted, slow in adaptation to rapidly changing requirements and reputation of being impractical for small and fast paced projects. XP model has certain drawbacks such as weak documentation and poor performance for medium and large development projects. XP has a concrete set of engineering practices that emphasizes on team work where managers, customers and developers are all equal partners in collaborative teams. Scrum is more concerned with the project management. It has seven practices namely Scrum Master, Scrum teams, Product Backlog, Sprint, Sprint Planning Meeting, Daily Scrum Meeting and Sprint Review. Keeping above mentioned context in view, this paper intends to propose a hybrid model naming SPRUP model by combining strengths of Scrum, XP and RUP by eliminating their weaknesses to produce high quality software. The proposed SPRUP model is validated through a controlled case study.

  6. Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deutsch, Jared L., E-mail: jdeutsch@ualberta.ca [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Palmer, Kevin [Teck Resources Limited (Canada); Deutsch, Clayton V.; Szymanski, Jozef [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Etsell, Thomas H. [University of Alberta, Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.

  7. Capability maturity models in engineering companies: case study analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titov Sergei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of the current economic downturn engineering companies in Russia and worldwide are searching for new approaches and frameworks to improve their strategic position, increase the efficiency of the internal business processes and enhance the quality of the final products. Capability maturity models are well-known tools used by many foreign engineering companies to assess the productivity of the processes, to elaborate the program of business process improvement and to prioritize the efforts to optimize the whole company performance. The impact of capability maturity model implementation on cost and time are documented and analyzed in the existing research. However, the potential of maturity models as tools of quality management is less known. The article attempts to analyze the impact of CMM implementation on the quality issues. The research is based on a case study methodology and investigates the real life situation in a Russian engineering company.

  8. Nonparametric Bayes modeling for case control studies with many predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jing; Herring, Amy H; Bhattacharya, Anirban; Olshan, Andrew F; Dunson, David B

    2016-03-01

    It is common in biomedical research to run case-control studies involving high-dimensional predictors, with the main goal being detection of the sparse subset of predictors having a significant association with disease. Usual analyses rely on independent screening, considering each predictor one at a time, or in some cases on logistic regression assuming no interactions. We propose a fundamentally different approach based on a nonparametric Bayesian low rank tensor factorization model for the retrospective likelihood. Our model allows a very flexible structure in characterizing the distribution of multivariate variables as unknown and without any linear assumptions as in logistic regression. Predictors are excluded only if they have no impact on disease risk, either directly or through interactions with other predictors. Hence, we obtain an omnibus approach for screening for important predictors. Computation relies on an efficient Gibbs sampler. The methods are shown to have high power and low false discovery rates in simulation studies, and we consider an application to an epidemiology study of birth defects.

  9. Mathematical and computational modeling and simulation fundamentals and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Moeller, Dietmar P F

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation - a highly multi-disciplinary field with ubiquitous applications in science and engineering - is one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century. This book introduces to the use of Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation in order to develop an understanding of the solution characteristics of a broad class of real-world problems. The relevant basic and advanced methodologies are explained in detail, with special emphasis on ill-defined problems. Some 15 simulation systems are presented on the language and the logical level. Moreover, the reader can accumulate experience by studying a wide variety of case studies. The latter are briefly described within the book but their full versions as well as some simulation software demos are available on the Web. The book can be used for University courses of different level as well as for self-study. Advanced sections are marked and can be skipped in a first reading or in undergraduate courses...

  10. Italian Case Studies Modelling Complex Earthquake Sources In PSHA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Robin; Peruzza, Laura; Pagani, Marco

    2017-04-01

    This study presents two examples of modelling complex seismic sources in Italy, done in the framework of regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The first case study is for an area centred around Collalto Stoccaggio, a natural gas storage facility in Northern Italy, located within a system of potentially seismogenic thrust faults in the Venetian Plain. The storage exploits a depleted natural gas reservoir located within an actively growing anticline, which is likely driven by the Montello Fault, the underlying blind thrust. This fault has been well identified by microseismic activity (Mseismological information. We explore the sensitivity of the hazard results to various parameters affected by epistemic uncertainty, such as ground motions prediction equations with different rupture-to-site distance metrics, fault geometry, and maximum magnitude. The second case is an innovative study, where we perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (APSHA) in Central Italy, following the Amatrice M6.1 earthquake of August 24th, 2016 (298 casualties) and the subsequent earthquakes of Oct 26th and 30th (M6.1 and M6.6 respectively, no deaths). The aftershock hazard is modelled using a fault source with complex geometry, based on literature data and field evidence associated with the August mainshock. Earthquake activity rates during the very first weeks after the deadly earthquake were used to calibrated an Omori-Utsu decay curve, and the magnitude distribution of aftershocks is assumed to follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. We apply uniform and non-uniform spatial distribution of the seismicity across the fault source, by modulating the rates as a decreasing function of distance from the mainshock. The hazard results are computed for short-exposure periods (1 month, before the occurrences of October earthquakes) and compared to the background hazard given by law (MPS04), and to observations at some reference sites. We also show the results of

  11. Urban Modelling with Typological Approach. Case Study: Merida, Yucatan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, A.

    2017-08-01

    In three-dimensional models of urban historical reconstruction, missed contextual architecture faces difficulties because it does not have much written references in contrast to the most important monuments. This is the case of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico during the Colonial Era (1542-1810), which has lost much of its heritage. An alternative to offer a hypothetical view of these elements is a typological - parametric definition that allows a 3D modeling approach to the most common features of this heritage evidence.

  12. Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Simon; Wardlaw, Jessica; Crouch, Susan; Carolan, Michelle

    2011-09-01

    Hospitals need to understand patient flows in an increasingly competitive health economy. New initiatives like Patient Choice and the Darzi Review further increase this demand. Essential to understanding patient flows are demographic and geographic profiles of health care service providers, known as 'catchment areas' and 'catchment populations'. This information helps Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to review how their populations are accessing services, measure inequalities and commission services; likewise it assists Secondary Care Providers (SCPs) to measure and assess potential gains in market share, redesign services, evaluate admission thresholds and plan financial budgets. Unlike PCTs, SCPs do not operate within fixed geographic boundaries. Traditionally, SCPs have used administrative boundaries or arbitrary drive times to model catchment areas. Neither approach satisfactorily represents current patient flows. Furthermore, these techniques are time-consuming and can be challenging for healthcare managers to exploit. This paper presents three different approaches to define catchment areas, each more detailed than the previous method. The first approach 'First Past the Post' defines catchment areas by allocating a dominant SCP to each Census Output Area (OA). The SCP with the highest proportion of activity within each OA is considered the dominant SCP. The second approach 'Proportional Flow' allocates activity proportionally to each OA. This approach allows for cross-boundary flows to be captured in a catchment area. The third and final approach uses a gravity model to define a catchment area, which incorporates drive or travel time into the analysis. Comparing approaches helps healthcare providers to understand whether using more traditional and simplistic approaches to define catchment areas and populations achieves the same or similar results as complex mathematical modelling. This paper has demonstrated, using a case study of Manchester, that when estimating

  13. Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Luiz Zandoval Bonazzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the past, currently, thinking about innovation refers to a reflection of value cocreation through strategic alliances, customer approach and adoption of different business models. Thus, this study analyzed and described the innovation process of company DSM, connecting it to concepts of organizational development strategies and the theory of business model. This is a basic interpretive qualitative research, developed by means of a single case study conducted through interviews and documentary analysis. This study enabled us to categorize the company business model as an open, unbundled and innovative model, which makes innovation a dependent variable of this internal configuration of value creation and value capture. As a theoretical contribution, we highlight the convergence and complementarity of the “Business Model Canvas” tool and “Innovation Funnel,” used here, to analyze the empirical case.

  14. Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sukumar, Sreenivas R [ORNL; Nutaro, James J [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigm to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.

  15. Modelling isolated deep convection: A case study from COPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph R. Burton

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the important physical processes which need to be well represented in a model simulation of the deep convective cloud which occurred on the 15th July 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS. During the afternoon of 15th July 2007, an isolated, deep convective cloud developed, reaching heights of 12 km above ground level. Previous studies have shown that numerical weather prediction models struggle to simulate realistically this particular cloud. In the present study, it is found that a reservoir of moist air developed, providing necessary energy ready to be released via a suitable trigger (the arrival of a convergence line. A series of tests of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is employed to find the modelled sensitivities to boundary-layer and land-surface specification, and the combinations of these necessary to provide the reservoir of moist air.

  16. Case study for model validation : assessing a model for thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Leslie, Ian H. (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM); Hobbs, Michael L.; Rutherford, Brian Milne; Hills, Richard Guy (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM); Pilch, Martin M.

    2004-10-01

    A case study is reported to document the details of a validation process to assess the accuracy of a mathematical model to represent experiments involving thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. The focus of the report is to work through a validation process. The process addresses the following activities. The intended application of mathematical model is discussed to better understand the pertinent parameter space. The parameter space of the validation experiments is mapped to the application parameter space. The mathematical models, computer code to solve the models and its (code) verification are presented. Experimental data from two activities are used to validate mathematical models. The first experiment assesses the chemistry model alone and the second experiment assesses the model of coupled chemistry, conduction, and enclosure radiation. The model results of both experimental activities are summarized and uncertainty of the model to represent each experimental activity is estimated. The comparison between the experiment data and model results is quantified with various metrics. After addressing these activities, an assessment of the process for the case study is given. Weaknesses in the process are discussed and lessons learned are summarized.

  17. Assessing uncertainties in solute transport models: Upper Narew case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuch, M.; Romanowicz, R.; Napiórkowski, J. J.

    2009-04-01

    This paper evaluates uncertainties in two solute transport models based on tracer experiment data from the Upper River Narew. Data Based Mechanistic and transient storage models were applied to Rhodamine WT tracer observations. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty and the sensitivity of model predictions to varying physical parameters, such as dispersion and channel geometry. An advection-dispersion model with dead zones (Transient Storage model) adequately describes the transport of pollutants in a single channel river with multiple storage. The applied transient storage model is deterministic; it assumes that observations are free of errors and the model structure perfectly describes the process of transport of conservative pollutants. In order to take into account the model and observation errors, an uncertainty analysis is required. In this study we used a combination of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation technique (GLUE) and the variance based Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA). The combination is straightforward as the same samples (Sobol samples) were generated for GLUE analysis and for sensitivity assessment. Additionally, the results of the sensitivity analysis were used to specify the best parameter ranges and their prior distributions for the evaluation of predictive model uncertainty using the GLUE methodology. Apart from predictions of pollutant transport trajectories, two ecological indicators were also studied (time over the threshold concentration and maximum concentration). In particular, a sensitivity analysis of the length of "over the threshold" period shows an interesting multi-modal dependence on model parameters. This behavior is a result of the direct influence of parameters on different parts of the dynamic response of the system. As an alternative to the transient storage model, a Data Based Mechanistic approach was tested. Here, the model is identified and the parameters are estimated from available time series data using

  18. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  19. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  20. Developmental genetics in emerging rodent models: case studies and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallarino, Ricardo; Hoekstra, Hopi E; Manceau, Marie

    2016-08-01

    For decades, mammalian developmental genetic studies have focused almost entirely on two laboratory models: Mus and Rattus, species that breed readily in the laboratory and for which a wealth of molecular and genetic resources exist. These species alone, however, do not capture the remarkable diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological traits seen across rodents, a group that represents >40% of all mammal species. Due to new advances in molecular tools and genomic technologies, studying the developmental events underlying natural variation in a wide range of species for a wide range of traits has become increasingly feasible. Here we review several recent studies and discuss how they not only provided technical resources for newly emerging rodent models in developmental genetics but also are instrumental in further encouraging scientists, from a wide range of research fields, to capitalize on the great diversity in development that has evolved among rodents.

  1. Case studies of major DST-6 sounding impacts with the GLAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, R.

    1979-01-01

    Two case studies of DST-6 sounding impacts are presented. In each of these cases, major improvements to the GLAS model's forecasts of specific synoptic features resulted from including satellite-sounding data in the initial analysis.

  2. Nonlinear dynamic modeling of multicomponent batch distillation: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiménez L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to compare several of the commercial dynamic models for batch distillation available worldwide. In this context, BATCHFRAC(TM, CHEMCAD(TM BATCH, and HYSYS.Plant® software performances are compared to experimental data. The software can be used as soft sensors, playing the roll of ad-hoc observers or estimators for control objectives. Rigorous models were used as an alternative to predict the concentration profile and to specify the optimal switching time from products to slop cuts. The performance of a nonlinear model obtained using a novel identification algorithm was also studied. In addition, the strategy for continuous separation was revised with residue curve map analysis using Aspen SPLIT(TM.

  3. Development Of An Econometric Model Case Study: Romanian Classification System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savescu Roxana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to illustrate an econometric model used to predict the lean meat content in pig carcasses, based on the muscle thickness and back fat thickness measured by the means of an optical probe (OptiGrade PRO.The analysis goes through all steps involved in the development of the model: statement of theory, specification of the mathematical model, sampling and collection of data, estimation of the parameters of the chosen econometric model, tests of the hypothesis derived from the model and prediction equations. The data have been in a controlled experiment conducted by the Romanian Carcass Classification Commission in 2007. The purpose of the experiment was to develop the prediction formulae to be used in the implementation of SEUROP classification system, imposed by European Union legislation. The research methodology used by the author in this study consisted in reviewing the existing literature and normative acts, analyzing the primary data provided by and organization conducting the experiment and interviewing the representatives of the working team that participated in the trial.

  4. Paradigms of knowledge management with systems modelling case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pandey, Krishna Nath

    2016-01-01

    This book has been written by studying the knowledge management implementation at POWERGRID India, one of the largest power distribution companies in the world. The patterns which have led to models, both hypothesized and data-enabled, have been provided. The book suggests ways and means to follow for knowledge management implementation, especially for organizations with multiple business verticals to follow. The book underlines that knowledge is both an entity and organizational asset which can be managed. A holistic view of knowledge management implementation has been provided. It also emphasizes the phenomenological importance of human resource parameters as compared to that of technological parameters. Various hypotheses have been tested to validate the significant models hypothesized. This work will prove useful to corporations, researchers, and independent professionals working to study or implement knowledge management paradigms.

  5. Preliminary study of the Gravimetric Local Geoid Model in Jordan: case study (GeoJordan Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Al-Zoubi

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been an increased interest in studying and defining the Local and Regional Geoid Model worldwide, due to its importance in geodetic and geophysics applications.The use of the Global Positioning System (GPS is internationally growing, yet the lack of a Geoid Model for Jordan has limited the use of GPS for the geodetic applications in the country. This work aims to present the preliminary results that we propose for «The Gravimetric Jordanian Geoid Model (GeoJordan». The model is created using gravimetric data and the GRAVSOFT program. The model is validated using GPS and precise level measurements in the Amman area. Moreover, we present a comparison using the Global Geopotential Model OSU91A and the EGM96 Model and the results showed great discrepancies. We also present the approach used to obtain the orthometric height from GPS ellipsoidal height measurements. We found that the error margin obtained in this work of the GeoJordan after fitting the data with GPS/leveling measurements is about (10 cm in the tested area whereas the standard error of the created model is about (40 cm.

  6. How to create a business model: Taxiwoman case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Macías Acosta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available El proyecto Taxiwoman es un caso exitoso de diseño de modelos de negocios mediante la aplicación de la metodología Canvas. Esta metodología permite estructurar adecuadamente todos los elementos de un proyecto ya que se presta apropiado para abarcar los aspectos claves de un negocio. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar la aplicación de la metodología Canvas a través del estudio del caso Taxiwoman. The Taxiwoman Project is a successful example of a business project design using the Canvas methodology. This methodology allows for the appropriate organization of projects in that it encompasses all of the fundamental business elements. This article’s objective is to present a successful use of Canvas methodology through the Taxiwoman case study.

  7. Case Study Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes the history of case study teaching, types of cases, and experimental data supporting their effectiveness. It also describes a model for comparing the efficacy of the various case study methods. (Contains 1 figure.)

  8. Case Study Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes the history of case study teaching, types of cases, and experimental data supporting their effectiveness. It also describes a model for comparing the efficacy of the various case study methods. (Contains 1 figure.)

  9. Hierarchical Models for Batteries: Overview with Some Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pannala, Sreekanth [ORNL; Mukherjee, Partha P [ORNL; Allu, Srikanth [ORNL; Nanda, Jagjit [ORNL; Martha, Surendra K [ORNL; Dudney, Nancy J [ORNL; Turner, John A [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Batteries are complex multiscale systems and a hierarchy of models has been employed to study different aspects of batteries at different resolutions. For the electrochemistry and charge transport, the models span from electric circuits, single-particle, pseudo 2D, detailed 3D, and microstructure resolved at the continuum scales and various techniques such as molecular dynamics and density functional theory to resolve the atomistic structure. Similar analogies exist for the thermal, mechanical, and electrical aspects of the batteries. We have been recently working on the development of a unified formulation for the continuum scales across the electrode-electrolyte-electrode system - using a rigorous volume averaging approach typical of multiphase formulation. This formulation accounts for any spatio-temporal variation of the different properties such as electrode/void volume fractions and anisotropic conductivities. In this talk the following will be presented: The background and the hierarchy of models that need to be integrated into a battery modeling framework to carry out predictive simulations, Our recent work on the unified 3D formulation addressing the missing links in the multiscale description of the batteries, Our work on microstructure resolved simulations for diffusion processes, Upscaling of quantities of interest to construct closures for the 3D continuum description, Sample results for a standard Carbon/Spinel cell will be presented and compared to experimental data, Finally, the infrastructure we are building to bring together components with different physics operating at different resolution will be presented. The presentation will also include details about how this generalized approach can be applied to other electrochemical storage systems such as supercapacitors, Li-Air batteries, and Lithium batteries with 3D architectures.

  10. Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; FENG Liu; Jacques Yvon

    2005-01-01

    Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.

  11. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  12. Assessing Fit of Cognitive Diagnostic Models: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip; Almond, Russell G.

    2007-01-01

    A cognitive diagnostic model uses information from educational experts to describe the relationships between item performances and posited proficiencies. When the cognitive relationships can be described using a fully Bayesian model, Bayesian model checking procedures become available. Checking models tied to cognitive theory of the domains…

  13. Case Study: Modelling Telecommunication Systems using Concurrent ML

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Torben

    1998-01-01

    How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML.......How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML....

  14. Empirical Estimation of Hybrid Model: A Controlled Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Sadaf Un Nisa; M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi

    2012-01-01

    Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP) are frequently used models among all agile models whereas Rational Unified Process (RUP) is one of the widely used conventional plan driven software development models. The agile and plan driven approaches both have their own strengths and weaknesses. Although RUP model has certain drawbacks, such as tendency to be over budgeted, slow in adaptation to rapidly changing requirements and reputation of being impractical for small and fast paced projects. XP mode...

  15. Study on forward modeling of through-casing resistivity logging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Through-casing resistivity logging (TCRL) is a new kind of logging method for formation evaluation,reservoir monitoring and saturation changes tracking. In this paper,the basic principle of TCRL is de-tailed,and the modified transmission line equation method (MTLEM) is first proposed in China. The MTLEM has been employed to simulate the responses of TCRL,on the basis of which,the effects of formation resistivity,cement and casing on the responses of TCRL are analyzed,and the signals in-duced in different formations are also calculated,which can help the design of TCRL tool and data processing and interpretation in China.

  16. Habitat modelling limitations - Puck Bay, Baltic Sea - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Marcin Węsławski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The Natura 2000 sites and the Coastal Landscape Park in a shallow marine bay in the southern Baltic have been studied in detail for the distribution of benthic macroorganisms, species assemblages and seabed habitats. The relatively small Inner Puck Bay (104.8 km2 is one of the most thoroughly investigated marine areas in the Baltic: research has been carried out there continuously for over 50 years. Six physical parameters regarded as critically important for the marine benthos (depth, minimal temperature, maximum salinity, light, wave intensity and sediment type were summarized on a GIS map showing unified patches of seabed and the near-bottom water conditions. The occurrence of uniform seabed forms is weakly correlated with the distributions of individual species or multi-species assemblages. This is partly explained by the characteristics of the local macrofauna, which is dominated by highly tolerant, eurytopic species with opportunistic strategies. The history and timing of the assemblage formation also explains this weak correlation. The distribution of assemblages formed by long-living, structural species (Zostera marina and other higher plants shows the history of recovery following earlier disturbances. In the study area, these communities are still in the stage of recovery and recolonization, and their present distribution does not as yet match the distribution of the physical environmental conditions favourable to them. Our results show up the limitations of distribution modelling in coastal waters, where the history of anthropogenic disturbances can distort the picture of the present-day environmental control of biota distributions.

  17. Optimizing neural network models: motivation and case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Harp, S A; T. Samad

    2012-01-01

    Practical successes have been achieved  with neural network models in a variety of domains, including energy-related industry. The large, complex design space presented by neural networks is only minimally explored in current practice. The satisfactory results that nevertheless have been obtained testify that neural networks are a robust modeling technology; at the same time, however, the lack of a systematic design approach implies that the best neural network models generally  rem...

  18. Resource Allocation Models and Accountability: A Jamaican Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Powell, Philip

    2008-01-01

    Higher education institutions (HEIs) may be funded privately, by the state or by a mixture of the two. Nevertheless, any state financing of HE necessitates a mechanism to determine the level of support and the channels through which it is to be directed; that is, a resource allocation model. Public funding, through resource allocation models,…

  19. Validation of Goudriaan's model: a case study for maize.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, R.S.; Jacobs, A.F.G.

    1995-01-01

    The crop microclimate model of Goudriaan was tested, using data collected in a maize field in the Netherlands during one day in summer 1986. Except for the soil heat flux, latent and sensible heat fluxes were simulated reasonably well. Goudriaan's model overestimated the latent and sensible heat flu

  20. Power electronic converters modeling and control with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Bacha, Seddik; Bratcu, Antoneta Iuliana

    2014-01-01

    Modern power electronic converters are involved in a very broad spectrum of applications: switched-mode power supplies, electrical-machine-motion-control, active power filters, distributed power generation, flexible AC transmission systems, renewable energy conversion systems and vehicular technology, among them. Power Electronics Converters Modeling and Control teaches the reader how to analyze and model the behavior of converters and so to improve their design and control. Dealing with a set of confirmed algorithms specifically developed for use with power converters, this text is in two parts: models and control methods. The first is a detailed exposition of the most usual power converter models: ·        switched and averaged models; ·        small/large-signal models; and ·        time/frequency models. The second focuses on three groups of control methods: ·        linear control approaches normally associated with power converters; ·        resonant controllers b...

  1. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ulla Santti; Tuomo Eskelinen; Mervi Rajahonka; Kaija Villman; Ari Happonen

    2017-01-01

    ...” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF...

  2. Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Novosel, Tomislav

    2013-01-01

    In the light of new European energy-climate package and its measures for increasing security of supply, decreasing the impact on environment and stimulating sustainable development with special emphasis on job creation and regional growth, Croatia as a future EU member state, needs to reconsider...... GHG module was assembled and added to the NeD model covering all six sectors and calculating its emissions. The model is based on bottom up approach, where data was available, which combines and process large number of input data at the end use level. NeD model was used to present different future GHG...

  3. The Box Model and the Acoustic Sounder, a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Otto; Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1979-01-01

    Concentrations of SO2 in a large city during a subsidence situation are predicted as a function of time by means of a simple box model and the predictions are compared to actual SO2 concentration measurements. The agreement between model results and measurements is found to be excellent. The model...... uses the height of the mixing layer as measured by means of an acoustic sounder. It is demonstrated that this height is a dominant factor in determining the variation of the SO2 concentration...

  4. A Case Study in Model Checking Software Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-04-01

    two formal objects compared are a nite state machine model of the software system, and as before, a speci cation written in some mathematical logic...C:Dt = ffg, and At = ffC = fSg. 4.1.1 State Machine Model The top graph in Figure 2 shows the state transition graphs for the client, and the bottom...follows from 2 above, because once the client discovers d is invalid it discards it. Thus At = ; or At = fdC = dSg. 4.3.1 State Machine Model For the Coda

  5. Bootstrapping pronunciation models: a South African case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davel, M

    2006-02-27

    Full Text Available Bootstrapping techniques can accelerate the development of language technology for new languages. The authors define a framework for the analysis of a general bootstrapping process whereby a model is improved through a controlled series...

  6. Modelling the South African fruit export infrastructure: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FG Ortmann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available A description is provided of work performed as part of the fruit logistics infrastructure project commissioned by the South African Deciduous Fruit Producers’ Trust and coordinated by the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, as described in [Van Dyk FE & Maspero E, 2004, An analysis of the South African fruit logistics infrastructure, ORiON, 20(1, pp. 55–72]. After a brief introduction to the problem, two models (a single-commodity graph theoretic model and a multi-commodity mathematical programming model are derived for determining the maximal weekly flow or throughput of fresh fruit through the South African national export infrastructure. These models are solved for two extreme seasonal export scenarios and the solutions show that no export infrastructure expansion is required in the near future - observed bottlenecks are not fundamental to the infrastructure and its capacities, but are rather due to sub-optimal management and utilisation of the existing infrastructure.

  7. Integrated modelling in coastal lagoons: Sacca di Goro case study

    OpenAIRE

    Marinov, D.; Zaldivar, J.M.; Norro, A.; Giordani, G.; Viaroli, P.

    2008-01-01

    A coupled 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was developed and implemented for the Sacca di Goro coastal lagoon. The model considers nutrient and oxygen dynamics in water column and sediments. Among the biological elements, phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria, Ulva sp. and commercial shellfish (Tapes philippinarum) were taken into consideration. Nutrients fluxes from the watershed and open sea, as well as atmospheric inputs, heat flux, light intensity and wind shear stress at the water sur...

  8. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region.

    OpenAIRE

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    Bicycle transport has traditionally been underrepresented in traffic models, because historically the main focus has been on modelling more resource-intensive investments in motor traffic roads and public transport. In order to decrease road congestion and to reduce the related health and societal problems, there is a growing interest in promoting more sustainable transport systems, with a particular emphasis on the bicycle as a sustainable transport alternative. Accordingly, the objective of...

  9. Partial equilibrium modelCase study of the poultry market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Šobrová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with identifying the main determinants in the poultry agri-food chain in the Czech Republic and examines their relationships. The partial equilibrium model, defined as a seven-equation model in power form, is employed for this purpose. The analysis is based on both time-series and panel data of the main factors in the poultry market. The time-series as well as panel data contain annual data of selected variables for the period from 1995 to 2009. The analysis is focused on supply and demand of poultry meat, specifically on production, consumption and foreign trade in poultry meat in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the main factors influencing the poultry market are determined, then, an appropriate model is employed. The parameters of the model are estimated using the ordinary least squares method in statistical and econometric software. Estimated parameters confirm assumed relationships among the selected variables. Moreover, the long-term tendencies of the selected indicators are proven. Among other, the analysis proves an inertial consumption, the price level as the main factor influencing the consumption and one-way or mutual relationship among the selected variables. The statistical features of the model are satisfied as well – the estimated parameters are statistically significant, the model does not contain, neither the problem of autocorrelation of residuals nor the problem of heteroskedasticity.

  10. Morphological modelling of the response to a shipwreck - A case study at Cape Town

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Fredsoe, Jørgen; Deigaard, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    with a simplified 1D morphological evolution model for the coastline. The model concept is applied to the case study in order to show how the modelling concept may be applied to real coastlines with general bathymetric features. The results show that the model captures the overall morphological response fairly well...

  11. A case study in modeling a nuclear formation evaluation sub

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locke, S. (Teleco Oilfield Services, Inc., Middletown, CT (United States))

    1992-08-01

    This paper reports that constructing an accurate Monte Carlo representation of a complex nuclear formation evaluation tool requires careful matching of computed values to the results of laboratory experiments. The availability of only finite computing resources forces restraint in the step by step addition of complexity to the model. Once confidence in the model has been established, it can be used to predict tool response to many situations not reproducible in a laboratory. High temperatures, high pressures, and pore fluids composed of liquid-gas mixtures are typical of conditions encountered in real oil wells that are difficult to reproduce in a laboratory. Tool design and the effects of design modifications can also be evaluated efficiently using the model.

  12. Facilitating Data Driven Business Model Innovation - A Case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Torben Cæsar Bisgaard; Andersen, Troels Christian; Aagaard, Annabeth

    2016-01-01

    , that gathers knowledge is of great importance. The SMEs have little, if no experience, within data handling, data analytics, and working with structured Business Model Innovation (BMI), that relates to both new and conventional products, processes and services. This new frontier of data and BMI will have......This paper aims to understand the barriers that businesses meet in understanding their current business models (BM) and in their attempt at innovating new data driven business models (DDBM) using data. The interdisciplinary challenge of knowledge exchange occurring outside and/or inside businesses...... ability to adapt these new DDBM depends on the ability to pick up, share and develop knowledge between customers, partners and the network. This knowledge can be embedded into core BMs and constitutes a strategic opportunity enabling businesses to extract value from data into BMI, resulting in DDBMs...

  13. SWMM 5 - A Case Study of Model Re-Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    By the turn of the 21st century the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) already had a 30-year history of extensive use throughout the world for analyzing complex hydrologic, hydraulic, and water quality problems related to urban draina...

  14. Teaching the Interactionist Model of Ethics: Two Brief Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Edward C.

    2009-01-01

    This article draws on the interactionist model of ethics as a framework to help students answer two key questions they will confront in their future careers: (a) How can I, as a professional manager, deter clearly unethical behavior among my subordinates? and (b) How can I avoid engaging in clearly unethical behavior myself? For each of these…

  15. Developing the DESCARTE Model: The Design of Case Study Research in Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolan, Clare M; Forbat, Liz; Smith, Annetta

    2016-04-01

    Case study is a long-established research tradition which predates the recent surge in mixed-methods research. Although a myriad of nuanced definitions of case study exist, seminal case study authors agree that the use of multiple data sources typify this research approach. The expansive case study literature demonstrates a lack of clarity and guidance in designing and reporting this approach to research. Informed by two reviews of the current health care literature, we posit that methodological description in case studies principally focuses on description of case study typology, which impedes the construction of methodologically clear and rigorous case studies. We draw from the case study and mixed-methods literature to develop the DESCARTE model as an innovative approach to the design, conduct, and reporting of case studies in health care. We examine how case study fits within the overall enterprise of qualitatively driven mixed-methods research, and the potential strengths of the model are considered. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Urgency/Emergency Health Processes' Modelling: A Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Carlos; Ferreira, Carla; Tribolet, José

    2011-01-01

    The growing complexity and sophistication of the organizational information systems, and hospital ones particularly, render difficult their comprehension and, consequently, the implementation of control mechanisms that may assure, at all times, the auditability of the above mentioned systems, without having to use models. This paper, framed in a wider investigation, aims to describe the application of techniques and methodologies, in the sphere of action of Organizational Engineering, in the modelling of business processes developed in the main Operating Theatre of the Coimbra's University Hospital Emergency Service, as a support for the implementation of an information system architecture, using for that purpose the CEO framework, developed and suggested by the Centre for Organizational Engineering (CEO), based on the UML language.

  17. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related by a number of assumed cause-and-effect relationships. Time lags are included to stipulate one of the most important characteristic of BSC. We use the model to simulation different strategies or scenarios and to reach a kind...... exercise of BSC. It is relativity easy to extend our model to more realistic circumstances, by including more measures or change time lags. Using the assumed cause-and-effect relationships between financial and non-financial performance measures, attention should also be paid to the definitions...... of optimum or 'steady-state-condition. We, also demonstrate through three different scenarios how different variables influence the optimum time that normally also influence decision making. Findings - The results shows how profit, and ROCE (Return-On-Capital-Employed) are influenced by three chosen...

  18. Innovation and Business Model - A Case Study in Sector Vintner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonel Cezar Rodrigues

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This research targeted at determining type and nature of innovation associated to the curbing strategies of the business model at Casa Valduga, a traditional Brazilian wine producer that has stimulating that house to exceed in product quality, expanding its domestic and international market. The research was designed to explore, qualitatively, the phenomenon gathering data through interviews, formal documentation checking and observation. One conclude that the adopted business model originates basically from the company’s corporate strategies, to appropriate resources, capacities and competences, than from a common competitive intended strategy. Corporate strategy is based on fine tuning of the company’s resources with market segment interest. Corporate strategy help adjust capacity to generate superior quality products with the strategic control of value attributes, linked to the image and trademark of the company.

  19. Evaluation Model for Experts Social Networks (Based on Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Saghafi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Every Social network is considered as a structured Society constitute of individual or organizational group which are associated together within different type of dependency. The most important elements influence the success of such social network is the level of interest for sharing the information. This article addresses the important factors on assessment of Intellectual National Internet Network(ININ. For assessment we propose Enhanced technology acceptance model which we deployed by extending Davis TAM(technology acceptance model.ININ is a web base sites for think thanking of researchers which is acting within a four month at RICT(Research institute of ICT and the number of 214 ICT researchers distribute and delivered their experience. The result shows that in intellectual society, Intelligence has higher values to be disseminated and higher inspiration is needed for its successful sharing in new generation of Information technology.

  20. Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Mark; Andrews, Paul S; Timmis, Jon; Kumar, Vipin

    2014-10-01

    We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology.

  1. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  2. Strategic Assessment Model and Its Application:a Case Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Xiu-wen; CAO Meng-xia; ZHU Ning; ZUO M1ng-j1an

    2001-01-01

    Accurate and effective assessment of strategic alternatives of an organization directly affects the decision-making and execution of its development strategy. In evaluation of strategic alternatives, relevant elements from both internal and external environments of an organization must be considered. In this paper we use strategic assessment model to evaluate strategic alternatives of an air-conditioning company. Strategic objectives and alternatives of the company are developed through analysis of the competitive environment,key competitors and internal conditions. The environment factors are classified into internal, task, and general opportunities and threats. Analytical hierarchy process, subjective probabilities, entropy concept,and utility theory are used to enhance decision-maker's ability in evaluating strategic alternatives. The evaluation results show that the most effective strategic alternative for the company is to reduce types of products, concentrate its effort on producing window-type and cupboard-type air-conditioners, enlarge the production scale, and pre-empt the market. The company has made great progress by implementing this alternative. We conclude that SAM is an appropriate tool for evaluating strategic alternatives.

  3. Technology commercialization cost model and component case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-12-01

    Fuel cells seem poised to emerge as a clean, efficient, and cost competitive source of fossil fuel based electric power and thermal energy. Sponsors of fuel cell technology development need to determine the validity and the attractiveness of a technology to the market in terms of meeting requirements and providing value which exceeds the total cost of ownership. Sponsors of fuel cell development have addressed this issue by requiring the developers to prepare projections of the future production cost of their fuel cells in commercial quantities. These projected costs, together with performance and life projections, provide a preliminary measure of the total value and cost of the product to the customer. Booz-Allen & Hamilton Inc. and Michael A. Cobb & Company have been retained in several assignments over the years to audit these cost projections. The audits have gone well beyond a simple review of the numbers. They have probed the underlying technical and financial assumptions, the sources of data on material and equipment costs, and explored issues such as the realistic manufacturing yields which can be expected in various processes. Based on the experience gained from these audits, DOE gave Booz-Allen and Michael A. Cobb & company the task to develop a criteria to be used in the execution of future fuel cell manufacturing cost studies. It was thought that such a criteria would make it easier to execute such studies in the future as well as to cause such studies to be more understandable and comparable.

  4. A case study on point process modelling in disease mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Benes, Viktor

    2005-01-01

    We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence...... of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common areal level approaches we base the analysis on a Bayesian approach for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo...

  5. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín

    parameters across modes, on a dataset including trip information and socioeconomic variables for 7,958 individuals and 10,982 trip chains with five available alternative modes (i.e., walking, cycling, car driver, car passenger, and public transport). The results showed that travellers’ have heterogeneous...... problems, there is a growing interest in promoting more sustainable transport systems, with a particular emphasis on the bicycle as a sustainable transport alternative. Accordingly, the objective of this PhD study is to expand the knowledge about travellers’ choices of the bicycle as a mean of transport...... and then the probability of individuals, with that specific lifestyle, choosing a specific transport mode for short distances. Short trip chains in the Copenhagen Region were investigated, on a data sample with 10,982 observations with five available alternative modes (i.e., walking, cycling, car driver, car passenger...

  6. Using case studies based on a nursing conceptual model to teach medical-surgical nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSanto-Madeya, Susan

    2007-10-01

    Nurse educators are continually challenged to develop teaching strategies that enhance students' critical thinking, problem-solving, and decision-making skills. Case studies are a creative learning strategy that fosters these skills through the use of in-depth descriptions of realistic clinical situations. Conceptual models of nursing provide a unique body of knowledge that can be used to guide construction of case studies and enhance application of didactic course content to nursing practice. In this column, the author discusses the use of case studies constructed within the context of the Roy adaptation model for a senior level medical-surgical nursing course.

  7. Step-Wise Evolution of Mental Models of Electric Circuits: A "Learning-Aloud" Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, John J.; Steinberg, Melvin S.

    2002-01-01

    Describes an approach to teaching complex models in science that uses a model construction cycle of generation, evaluation, and modification. Reports on a case study of a student in a tutoring experiment in the study of electric circuits. Focuses on the role of analogies, discrepant events, and the student's moments of surprise as motivators of…

  8. Assessment of a Socio-constructivist Model for Teacher Training: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joia, Luiz Antonio

    2002-01-01

    Studied a socio-constructivist model for training teachers in Brazil, in the use of Informatics in education. Findings from a case study of the training of 29 teachers show the importance of care and coherence for knowledge creation in the socio-constructivist training model. (SLD)

  9. Optimization of SAGD process with proxy models: case study of a 3-well-pair model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedutenko, Eugene; Yang, Chaodong; Card, Colin; Nghiem, Long [Computer Modeling Group Ltd. (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    In the heavy oil industry, steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is a thermal recovery method used to enhance oil recovery. In order to improve the economics of SAGD operations, optimization of both SAGD operating conditions and well placements is necessary. Unfortunately this requires a large number of simulations which have a high computational cost. The aim of this paper is present a new workflow for improving the economics of SAGD with fewer simulations. A synthetic 3 well pair SAGD model was developed and simulations were conducted with a base case scenario and polynomial and Kriging proxy interpolation models. Results showed that both optimizations improved the NPV, SOR and RF of the model. In addition it was found that the polynomial model is faster than the Kriging model and that the Kriging model requires fewer iterations to obtain the optimal solution. This paper demonstrated that the use of polynomial or Kriging models helps improve the economics of SAGD operations.

  10. Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues

  11. Forecasting river discharge using coupled WRF-NMM meteorological model and HBV runoff model, case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekić, L.; Mihalović, A.; Jovičić, I.; Vladiković, D.; Jerinić, J.; Ivković, M.

    2012-04-01

    This paper examines two episodes of heavy rainfall and significantly increased water levels. The first case relates to the period including the beginning and the end of the third decade of June 2010 at the Kolubara river basin, where extreme rainfall led to two big flood waves on the Kolubara river, whereat water levels exceeded both regular and extraordinary flood defence and approached their historical maximum. The second case relates to the period including the end of November and the beginning of December 2010 at the Jadar river basin, where heavier precipitation caused the water levels of the basin to reach and surpass the occurrence limit (warning level). The HBV (Hydrological Bureau Waterbalance-section) rainfall/snowmelt - runoff model installed at the RHMSS uses gridded quantitative precipitation and air temperature forecast for 72 hours in advance based on meteorological weather forecast WRF-NMM mesoscale model. Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system is flexible state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model capable to describe and estimate powerful nonhydrostatic mechanism in convective clouds that cause heavy rain. The HBV model is a semi-distributed conceptual catchment model in which the spatial structure of a catchment area is not explicitly modelled. Instead, the sub-basin represents a primary modelling unit while the basin is characterised by area-elevation distribution and classification of vegetation cover and land use distributed by height zone. WRF-NMM forecast shows very good agreement with observations in terms of timing, location and amount of precipitation. They are used as input for HBV model, forecasted discharges at the output profile of the selected river basin represent model output for consideration. 1 Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

  12. Empirical Evaluation of the Proposed eXSCRUM Model-Results of a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Rizwan Jameel Qureshi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Agile models promote fast development. XP and Scrum are the most widely used agile models. This paper investigates the phases of XP and Scrum models in order to identify their potentials and drawbacks. XP model has certain drawbacks, such as not suitable for maintenance projects and poor performance for medium and large-scale development projects. Scrum model has certain limitations, such as lacked in engineering practices. Since, both XP and Scrum models contain good features and strengths but still there are improvement possibilities in these models. Majority of the software development companies are reluctant to switch from traditional methodologies to agile methodologies for development of industrial projects. A fine integration, of software management of the Scrum model and engineering practices of XP model, is very much required to accumulate the strengths and remove the limitations of both models. This is achieved by proposing an eXScrum model. The proposed model is validated by conducting a controlled case study. The results of case study show that the proposed integrated eXScrum model enriches the potentials of both XP and Scrum models and eliminates their drawbacks.

  13. Biomimetic agent based modelling using male Frog calling behaviour as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren V.; Demazeau, Yves; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob;

    2014-01-01

    A new agent-based modelling tool has been developed to allow the modelling of populations of individuals whose interactions are characterised by tightly timed dynamics. The tool was developed to model male frog calling dynamics, to facilitate research into what local rules may be employed...... Frog, E. coqui, is implemented as a case study for the presentation and discussion of the tool, and results from this model are presented. RANA, in its present stage of development, is shown to be able to handle the problem of modelling calling frogs, and several fruitful extensions are proposed...

  14. Modelling in Action. Examining How Students Approach Modelling Real Life Situations. Three Case Studies. Model of the Movement of an Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Eugenia Marmolejo

    2015-01-01

    By means of three case studies, we will present two mathematical modelling activities that are suitable for students enrolled in senior high school and the first year of mathematics at university level. The activities have been designed to enrich the learning process and promote the formation of vital modelling skills. In case studies one and two,…

  15. Modelling in Action. Examining How Students Approach Modelling Real Life Situations. Three Case Studies. Model of the Movement of an Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Eugenia Marmolejo

    2015-01-01

    By means of three case studies, we will present two mathematical modelling activities that are suitable for students enrolled in senior high school and the first year of mathematics at university level. The activities have been designed to enrich the learning process and promote the formation of vital modelling skills. In case studies one and two,…

  16. Development of an interactive model for planning the care workforce for Alberta: case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloom Judy

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction In common with other jurisdictions, Alberta faces challenges in ensuring a balance in health worker supply and demand. As the provider organization with province-wide responsibility, Alberta Health Services needed to develop a forecasting tool to inform its position on key workforce parameters, in the first instance focused on modeling the situation for Registered Nurses, Licensed Practical Nurses and health care aides. This case study describes the development of the model, highlighting the choices involved in model development. Case description A workforce planning model was developed to test the effect of different assumptions (for instance about vacancy rates or retirement and different policy choices (for example about the size of intakes into universities and colleges, different composition of the workforce. This case study describes the choices involved in designing the model. The workforce planning model was used as part of a consultation process and to develop six scenarios (based on different policy choices. Discussion and evaluation The model outputs highlighted the problems with continuation of current workforce strategies and the impact of key policy choices on workforce parameters. Conclusions Models which allow for transparency of the underlying assumptions, and the ability to assess the sensitivity of assumptions and the impact of policy choices are required for effective workforce planning.

  17. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  18. Equilibrium pricing in an order book environment: Case study for a spin model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meudt, Frederik; Schmitt, Thilo A.; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2016-07-01

    When modeling stock market dynamics, the price formation is often based on an equilibrium mechanism. In real stock exchanges, however, the price formation is governed by the order book. It is thus interesting to check if the resulting stylized facts of a model with equilibrium pricing change, remain the same or, more generally, are compatible with the order book environment. We tackle this issue in the framework of a case study by embedding the Bornholdt-Kaizoji-Fujiwara spin model into the order book dynamics. To this end, we use a recently developed agent based model that realistically incorporates the order book. We find realistic stylized facts. We conclude for the studied case that equilibrium pricing is not needed and that the corresponding assumption of a "fundamental" price may be abandoned.

  19. Performance estimation of networked business models : Case study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heikkilä, M.; Solaimani, H. (Sam); Kuivaniemi, L.; Suoranta, M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector

  20. Performance estimation of networked business models : Case study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heikkilä, M.; Solaimani, H. (Sam); Kuivaniemi, L.; Suoranta, M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector ai

  1. Applying an Environmental Model to Address High-Risk Drinking: A Town/Gown Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, John B.; Downs, Tracy T.; Cohen, Deborah

    2008-01-01

    This article provides a case study of a project by the University of Delaware and the City of Newark to apply an environmental model to address the excessive use of alcohol by college students. Data about changes in the behavior and experiences of students over a 10-year period are compared. The authors discuss some of the practical implications…

  2. Applying the ASCA National Model to Elementary School Students Who Are Homeless: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggerly, Jennifer; Borkowski, Tammilyn

    2004-01-01

    This case study of an African American elementary school female who is homeless illustrates how ASCA's National Model meets the needs of students who are homeless. The needs of children who are homeless and the rationale for school counseling interventions--including assessment, classroom guidance, group play therapy, and consultation--are…

  3. An Alternative Counseling Model for Alcohol Abuse in College: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, B. Grant; Curry, Jennifer; Freeman, Mark S.; Kuch, Tyson H.

    2010-01-01

    Abstinence education remains a prevailing approach for addressing college student alcohol abuse. This case study illustrates an alternative method of intervening that combines motivational interviewing, harm reduction, and a brief solution-focused model. The counseling approach illustrated emphasizes reduction in, rather than abstinence from,…

  4. Proposition of Model for CSIRT: Case Study of Telecommunication Company in a Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Naseri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Attack to software, network and system is cause of computer security incidents. Computer Security Incident Response Capability (CSIRC prevent from attacks by responding, predictive and safety quality management services. Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT provides these services. In this paper, modeling is proposed for deployment of CSIRT and structure for providing services is described. This model is implemented in a case study in a telecommunication company in a province of Iran and results are expressed.

  5. Ambition and reality in modeling: a case study on public planning for regional sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Jasper Grosskurth

    2007-01-01

    A comprehensive systems approach is a prerequisite for the development of sustainability policy strategies. Quantitative models are frequently proposed as useful building blocks in this regard. We examine the value of such models in a case study on regional sustainability carried out in cooperation with the administration of the Dutch province of Limburg. With the participation of an interdisciplinary group of civil servants, we developed an influence diagram representing the region and compa...

  6. Performance Estimation of Networked Business Models: Case Study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marikka Heikkilä

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector aiming to jointly provide a new service for business and private customers. The duration of the research study is 3 years. Findings: We propose that a balanced set of performance indicators can be defined by paying attention to all main components of the business model, enriched with of network collaboration. The results highlight the importance of measuring all main components of the business model and also the business network partners’ view on trust, contracts and fairness. Research implications: This article contributes to the business model literature by combining business modelling with performance evaluation. The article points out that it is essential to create metrics that can be applied to evaluate and improve the business model blueprints, but it is also important to measure business collaboration aspects. Practical implications: Companies have already adopted Business model canvas or similar business model tools to innovate new business models. We suggest that companies continue their business model innovation work by agreeing on a set of performance metrics, building on the business model components model enriched with measures of network collaboration. Originality/value: This article contributes to the business model literature and praxis by combining business modelling with performance evaluation.

  7. Dunedin's free clinic: an exploration of its model of care using case study methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Lik; Jaye, Chrystal; Dovey, Susan; Lloyd, Hywel; Rowe, Joanne

    2015-06-01

    Models of care are important therapeutic modalities for achieving the goals of health care teams, but they are seldom explicitly stated or investigated. To describe the model of care at Dunedin's free clinic, and assess whether this model catered to the particular needs of enrolled patients. A mixed methods study was conducted using case study methodology to construct the clinic's model of care from multiple data sources, and to create a profile of patients' needs. A nested case study of patients with diabetes examined patients' social vulnerability characteristics. The pattern matching analytic technique was used to assess the degree of alignment between the model of care and patients' needs. Patients were not only high users of both primary and secondary health care, but also of justice and social welfare sector services. The care of patients with diabetes was complicated by coexisting social vulnerability and medical comorbidities. Surveyed patients placed high value on interpersonal dimensions of care, the Christian ethos of the clinic, and the wider range of services available. This study suggests a degree of 'fit' between the clinic's model of care and the needs of enrolled patients. A model of care that caters to the needs of patients with complex needs is important for securing their engagement in health services.

  8. Preference learning for cognitive modeling: a case study on entertainment preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yannakakis, Georgios; Maragoudakis, Manolis; Hallam, John

    2009-01-01

    in 66.66% of cases on previously unseen data (p-value = 0.0136) of a second physical activity control experiment. Results indicate the benefit of the use of neuroevolution and sequential forward selection for the investigated complex case study of cognitive modeling in physical games....... investigated is to learn to predict the expressed entertainment preferences of children when playing physical games built on their personalized playing features (entertainment modeling). Two of the approaches are derived from the literature--the large-margin algorithm (LMA) and preference learning...... playing features. The underlying preference model that best reflects children preferences is obtained through neuroevolution: 82.22% of cross-validation accuracy in predicting reported entertainment in the main set of game survey experimentation. The model is able to correctly match expressed preferences...

  9. Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    /24 degree, if in the end you only look at monthly runoff? In this study an attempt is made to link time and space scales in the VIC model, to study the added value of a higher spatial resolution-model for different time steps. In order to do this, four different VIC models were constructed for the Thur basin in North-Eastern Switzerland (1700 km²), a tributary of the Rhine: one lumped model, and three spatially distributed models with a resolution of respectively 1x1 km, 5x5 km, and 10x10 km. All models are run at an hourly time step and aggregated and calibrated for different time steps (hourly, daily, monthly, yearly) using a novel Hierarchical Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique (Vořechovský, 2014). For each time and space scale, several diagnostics like Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, all the quantiles of the discharge etc., are calculated in order to compare model performance over different time and space scales for extreme events like floods and droughts. Next to that, the effect of time and space scale on the parameter distribution can be studied. In the end we hope to find a link for optimal time and space scale combinations.

  10. Quantitative modelling and analysis of a Chinese smart grid: a stochastic model checking case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology with the physical elements of a system, mainly for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... that require novel methods and applications. One of the important issues in this context is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese smart grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy...

  11. Modelling and Analysis of Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Zhu, Huibiao; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2012-01-01

    Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy...

  12. Performance Estimation of Networked Business Models: Case Study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    OpenAIRE

    Marikka Heikkilä; Sam Solaimani; Aki Soudunsaari; Mila Hakanen; Leni Kuivaniemi; Mari Suoranta

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector aiming to jointly provide a new service for business and private customers. The duration of the research study is 3 years. Findings: We propose that a balanced set of performance indicators...

  13. Biomimetic agent based modelling using male Frog calling behaviour as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren V.; Demazeau, Yves; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    by individuals to generate their observed population behaviour. A number of existing agent-modelling frameworks are considered, but none have the ability to handle large numbers of time-dependent event-generating agents; hence the construction of a new tool, RANA. The calling behaviour of the Puerto Rican Tree...... Frog, E. coqui, is implemented as a case study for the presentation and discussion of the tool, and results from this model are presented. RANA, in its present stage of development, is shown to be able to handle the problem of modelling calling frogs, and several fruitful extensions are proposed...

  14. Ambition and reality in modeling: a case study on public planning for regional sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Grosskurth

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive systems approach is a prerequisite for the development of sustainability policy strategies. Quantitative models are frequently proposed as useful building blocks in this regard. We examine the value of such models in a case study on regional sustainability carried out in cooperation with the administration of the Dutch province of Limburg. With the participation of an interdisciplinary group of civil servants, we developed an influence diagram representing the region and compared this to the coverage of quantitative models used in provincial strategic planning. The significant discrepancies between the two types of system representation lead to a more diligent interpretation of results, help to improve the models, and set challenges for future model use in regional sustainability planning. This article provides policy makers with practical advice on strategic planning and encourages scientists to improve the models by developing new techniques for the integration of quantitative and qualitative analyses.

  15. Case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milana, Marcella; Bernt Sørensen, Tore

    that time Roskilde University Centre and Learning Lab Denmark, DK)3. The case here presented is based on results from research activity carried out over a 1 year period (spring 2006 - spring 2007). Detailed information concerning participation in the project was collected in two DHSs only: the Sports Day...

  16. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  17. A devolved model for public involvement in the field of mental health research: case study learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moule, Pam; Davies, Rosie

    2016-12-01

    Patient and public involvement in all aspects of research is espoused and there is a continued interest in understanding its wider impact. Existing investigations have identified both beneficial outcomes and remaining issues. This paper presents the impact of public involvement in one case study led by a mental health charity conducted as part of a larger research project. The case study used a devolved model of working, contracting with service user-led organizations to maximize the benefits of local knowledge on the implementation of personalized budgets, support recruitment and local user-led organizations. To understand the processes and impact of public involvement in a devolved model of working with user-led organizations. Multiple data collection methods were employed throughout 2012. These included interviews with the researchers (n = 10) and research partners (n = 5), observation of two case study meetings and the review of key case study documentation. Analysis was conducted in NVivo10 using a coding framework developed following a literature review. Five key themes emerged from the data; Devolved model, Nature of involvement, Enabling factors, Implementation challenges and Impact. While there were some challenges of implementing the devolved model it is clear that our findings add to the growing understanding of the positive benefits research partners can bring to complex research. A devolved model can support the involvement of user-led organizations in research if there is a clear understanding of the underpinning philosophy and support mechanisms are in place. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. A Case Study of Employing A Single Server Nonpreemptive Priority Queuing Model at ATM Machine

    OpenAIRE

    Abdullah Furquan; Abdullah Imran

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a case study of employing a single server nonpreemptivepriorityqueuing model [1]at ATM machine which originally operates on M/M/1 model. In this study we have taken two priority classes of people in following order:- .Priority class 1- woman .Priority class 2- man Sometimea long queue is formed at ATMmachine (single server)but the bank management don’t have enough money to invest on installing new ATM machine.In this situation we want to apply single ser...

  19. DEVELOPING AND TESTING A 3D CADASTRAL DATA MODEL A CASE STUDY IN AUSTRALIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aien

    2012-07-01

    Many jurisdictions, organizations and software developers have built their own cadastral data model. Land Administration Domain Model (DIS-ISO 19152, The Netherlands and ePlan (Intergovernmental Committee on Surveying and Mapping, Australia are examples of existing data models. The variation between these data models is the result of different attitudes towards cadastres. However, there is a basic common thread among them all. Current cadastral data models use a 2D land-parcel concept and extend it to support 3D requirements. These data models cannot adequately manage and represent the spatial extent of 3D RRRs. Most of the current cadastral data models have been influenced by a very broad understanding of 3D cadastral concepts because better clarity in what needs to be represented and analysed in the cadastre needs to be established. This paper presents the first version of a 3D Cadastral Data Model (3DCDM_Version 1.0. 3DCDM models both the legal and physical extent of 3D properties and associated interests. The data model extends the traditional cadastral requirements to cover other applications such as urban planning and land valuation and taxation. A demonstration of a test system on the proposed data model is also presented. The test is based on a case study in Victoria, Australia to evaluate the effectiveness of the data model.

  20. Modelling and control of heat-integrated distillation columns: An industrial case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mauricio Iglesias, Miguel; Johansen, Kristoffer; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    with heat-integration. To this end a computer-aided methodology was developed. Secondly, the methodology was tested in an actual industrial case, where a dynamic model for heat-integrated distillation systems is developed and used to analyse and solve operation and control problem. The system studied...... in the industrial case is composed of two distillation columns in series (operated at 3.5 and 1.5 bar) for recovery of ethanol from a pseudo-binary mixture (heavy key water). Heat recovery is carried out both backward (from the two bottoms flow to the feed) and forward (from the first condensate to the second...

  1. D Modelling and Rapid Prototyping for Cardiovascular Surgical Planning - Two Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocerino, E.; Remondino, F.; Uccheddu, F.; Gallo, M.; Gerosa, G.

    2016-06-01

    In the last years, cardiovascular diagnosis, surgical planning and intervention have taken advantages from 3D modelling and rapid prototyping techniques. The starting data for the whole process is represented by medical imagery, in particular, but not exclusively, computed tomography (CT) or multi-slice CT (MCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). On the medical imagery, regions of interest, i.e. heart chambers, valves, aorta, coronary vessels, etc., are segmented and converted into 3D models, which can be finally converted in physical replicas through 3D printing procedure. In this work, an overview on modern approaches for automatic and semiautomatic segmentation of medical imagery for 3D surface model generation is provided. The issue of accuracy check of surface models is also addressed, together with the critical aspects of converting digital models into physical replicas through 3D printing techniques. A patient-specific 3D modelling and printing procedure (Figure 1), for surgical planning in case of complex heart diseases was developed. The procedure was applied to two case studies, for which MCT scans of the chest are available. In the article, a detailed description on the implemented patient-specific modelling procedure is provided, along with a general discussion on the potentiality and future developments of personalized 3D modelling and printing for surgical planning and surgeons practice.

  2. Implementing the Serial Number Tracking model in telecommunications: a case study of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Polovina

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The case study describes the implementation of the SNT (Serial Number Tracking model in an integrated information system, as a means of business support in a Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Objectives: The goal was to show how to make the best practice of the SNT implementation in the telecommunication industry, with referencing to problems which have arisen during the implementation. Methods/Approach: the case study approach was used based on the documentation about the SNT model and the business intelligence system in the Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Results: Economic aspects of the effectiveness of the SNT model are described and confirmed based on actual tangible and predominantly on intangible benefits. Conclusions: Advantages of the SNT model are multiple: operating costs for storage and transit of goods were reduced, accuracy of deliveries and physical inventory was improved; a new source of information for the business intelligence system was obtained; operating processes in the distribution of goods were advanced; transit insurance costs decreased and there were fewer cases of fraudulent behaviour.

  3. Case Study: Testing with Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2015-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses using case studies to test for knowledge or lessons learned.

  4. Case Study: Testing with Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2015-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses using case studies to test for knowledge or lessons learned.

  5. Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Hřebíček

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

  6. Expert System Models for Forecasting Forklifts Engagement in a Warehouse Loading Operation: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Mirčetić

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the problem of forklifts engagement in warehouse loading operations. Two expert system (ES models are created using several machine learning (ML models. Models try to mimic expert decisions while determining the forklifts engagement in the loading operation. Different ML models are evaluated and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and classification and regression trees (CART are chosen as the ones which have shown best results for the research purpose. As a case study, a central warehouse of a beverage company was used. In a beverage distribution chain, the proper engagement of forklifts in a loading operation is crucial for maintaining the defined customer service level. The created ES models represent a new approach for the rationalization of the forklifts usage, particularly for solving the problem of the forklifts engagement incargo loading. They are simple, easy to understand, reliable, and practically applicable tool for deciding on the engagement of the forklifts in a loading operation.

  7. Modeling integrated urban water systems in developing countries: case study of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poustie, Michael S; Deletic, Ana

    2014-12-01

    Developing countries struggle to provide adequate urban water services, failing to match infrastructure with urban expansion. Despite requiring an improved understanding of alternative infrastructure performance when considering future investments, integrated modeling of urban water systems is infrequent in developing contexts. This paper presents an integrated modeling methodology that can assist strategic planning processes, using Port Vila, Vanuatu, as a case study. 49 future model scenarios designed for the year 2050, developed through extensive stakeholder participation, were modeled with UVQ (Urban Volume and Quality). The results were contrasted with a 2015 model based on current infrastructure, climate, and water demand patterns. Analysis demonstrated that alternative water servicing approaches can reduce Port Vila's water demand by 35 %, stormwater generation by 38 %, and nutrient release by 80 % in comparison to providing no infrastructural development. This paper demonstrates that traditional centralized infrastructure will not solve the wastewater and stormwater challenges facing rapidly growing urban cities in developing countries.

  8. Regional Input Output Models and the FLQ Formula: A Case Study of Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Tony Flegg; Paul White

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the use of location quotients (LQs) in constructing regional input-output models. Its focus is on the augmented FLQ formula (AFLQ) proposed by Flegg and Webber, 2000, which takes regional specialization explicitly into account. In our case study, we examine data for 20 Finnish regions, ranging in size from very small to very large, in order to assess the relative performance of the AFLQ formula in estimating regional imports, total intermediate inputs and output multiplier...

  9. Application of power addition as modelling technique for flow processes: Two case studies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    de Wet, P

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available addition as modelling technique for flow processes: Two case studies Pierre de Wet a,�, J. Prieur du Plessis b, Sonia Woudberg b a Council for Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), PO Box 320, Stellenbosch 7599, South Africa b Applied Mathematics... research on precise, credible experimental practices is undeniable. The empirical equations derived from these investigations impart understanding of the underlying physics are crucial for the development of computational routines and form an integral...

  10. Modeling platform for integrated assessment of intervention propolsals in localities : case study, Medellin Metropolitan Area (Colombia)

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation proposes a comprehensive framework for conceptual, methodological and instrumental contribution to urban intervention planning and public policy design. For a Latin American case study, a prospective multi-methodology modeling platform was developed to support the novel proposed approaches for intervention assessment, as well as to establish a knowledge building dynamic for planners using multidisciplinary discussion and, most importantly, paradigm confrontation and change. ...

  11. 3D modelling of slow landslides: the Portalet case study (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Merodo, Jose Antonio; Bru, Guadalupe; García-Davalillo, Juan Carlos; Herrera, Gerardo; Fernandez, Jose

    2014-05-01

    Slow landslide deformation evolution is generally cast using 1D or 2D numerical models. This paper aims to explore 3D effects on the kinematic behavior of a real landslide, the Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees). This is a very well characterized and documented active paleo-landslide that has been reactivated by the construction of a parking area at the toe of the slope. The proposed 3D model is based on a time dependent hydro-mechanical finite element formulation that takes into account i) groundwater changes due to daily rainfall records and ii) viscous behavior and delayed creep deformation through a viscoplastic constitutive model based on Perzyna's theory. The model reproduces the nearly constant strain rate (secondary creep) and the acceleration/deceleration of the moving mass due to hydrological changes. Furthermore, the model is a able to catch the superficial 3D kinematics revealed by advanced in-situ monitoring like ground based SAR or DInSAR processing of satellite SAR images. References [1] Herrera G, Fernández-Merodo JA, Mulas J, Pastor M, Luzi G, Monserrat O (2009) A landslide forecasting model using ground based SAR data: The Portalet case study. Engineering Geology 105: 220-230 [2] Fernández-Merodo JA, Herrera G, Mira P, Mulas J, Pastor M, Noferini L, Me-catti D and Luzi G (2008). Modelling the Portalet landslide mobility (Formigal, Spain). iEMSs 2008: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Sànchez-Marrè M, Béjar J, Comas J, Rizzoli A and Guariso G (Eds.) International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) [3] Fernández-Merodo JA, García-Davalillo JC, Herrera G, Mira P, Pastor M (2012). 2D visco-plastic finite element modelling of slow landslides: the Portalet case study (Spain). Landslides, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-012-0370-4

  12. Stochastic and deterministic multiscale models for systems biology: an auxin-transport case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    King John R

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic and asymptotic methods are powerful tools in developing multiscale systems biology models; however, little has been done in this context to compare the efficacy of these methods. The majority of current systems biology modelling research, including that of auxin transport, uses numerical simulations to study the behaviour of large systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations, with little consideration of alternative modelling frameworks. Results In this case study, we solve an auxin-transport model using analytical methods, deterministic numerical simulations and stochastic numerical simulations. Although the three approaches in general predict the same behaviour, the approaches provide different information that we use to gain distinct insights into the modelled biological system. We show in particular that the analytical approach readily provides straightforward mathematical expressions for the concentrations and transport speeds, while the stochastic simulations naturally provide information on the variability of the system. Conclusions Our study provides a constructive comparison which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the considered modelling approaches. This will prove helpful to researchers when weighing up which modelling approach to select. In addition, the paper goes some way to bridging the gap between these approaches, which in the future we hope will lead to integrative hybrid models.

  13. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pdengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  14. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  15. Analysis regarding the transport network models. Case study on finding the optimal transport route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stîngă, V.-G.

    2017-08-01

    Transport networks are studied most of the time from a graph theory perspective, mostly studied in a static way, in order to emphasize their characteristics like: topology, morphology, costs, traffic flows etc. There are many methods used to describe these characteristics at local and global level. Usually when analysing the transport network models, the aim is to achieve minimum capacity transit or minimum cost of operating or investment. Throughout this paper we will get an insight into the many models of the transport network that were presented over the years and we will try to make a short analysis regarding the most important ones. We will make a case study on finding the optimal route by using one of the models presented within this paper.

  16. Performance measurement and modeling of component applications in a high performance computing environment : a case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Armstrong, Robert C.; Ray, Jaideep; Malony, A. (University of Oregon, Eugene, OR); Shende, Sameer (University of Oregon, Eugene, OR); Trebon, Nicholas D.

    2003-11-01

    We present a case study of performance measurement and modeling of a CCA (Common Component Architecture) component-based application in a high performance computing environment. We explore issues peculiar to component-based HPC applications and propose a performance measurement infrastructure for HPC based loosely on recent work done for Grid environments. A prototypical implementation of the infrastructure is used to collect data for a three components in a scientific application and construct performance models for two of them. Both computational and message-passing performance are addressed.

  17. Structuring research methods and data with the research object model: genomics workflows as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettne, Kristina M; Dharuri, Harish; Zhao, Jun; Wolstencroft, Katherine; Belhajjame, Khalid; Soiland-Reyes, Stian; Mina, Eleni; Thompson, Mark; Cruickshank, Don; Verdes-Montenegro, Lourdes; Garrido, Julian; de Roure, David; Corcho, Oscar; Klyne, Graham; van Schouwen, Reinout; 't Hoen, Peter A C; Bechhofer, Sean; Goble, Carole; Roos, Marco

    2014-01-01

    One of the main challenges for biomedical research lies in the computer-assisted integrative study of large and increasingly complex combinations of data in order to understand molecular mechanisms. The preservation of the materials and methods of such computational experiments with clear annotations is essential for understanding an experiment, and this is increasingly recognized in the bioinformatics community. Our assumption is that offering means of digital, structured aggregation and annotation of the objects of an experiment will provide necessary meta-data for a scientist to understand and recreate the results of an experiment. To support this we explored a model for the semantic description of a workflow-centric Research Object (RO), where an RO is defined as a resource that aggregates other resources, e.g., datasets, software, spreadsheets, text, etc. We applied this model to a case study where we analysed human metabolite variation by workflows. We present the application of the workflow-centric RO model for our bioinformatics case study. Three workflows were produced following recently defined Best Practices for workflow design. By modelling the experiment as an RO, we were able to automatically query the experiment and answer questions such as "which particular data was input to a particular workflow to test a particular hypothesis?", and "which particular conclusions were drawn from a particular workflow?". Applying a workflow-centric RO model to aggregate and annotate the resources used in a bioinformatics experiment, allowed us to retrieve the conclusions of the experiment in the context of the driving hypothesis, the executed workflows and their input data. The RO model is an extendable reference model that can be used by other systems as well. The Research Object is available at http://www.myexperiment.org/packs/428 The Wf4Ever Research Object Model is available at http://wf4ever.github.io/ro.

  18. SVM and ANFIS Models for precipitaton Modeling (Case Study: GonbadKavouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zabet Pishkhani

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In recent years, according to the intelligent models increased as new techniques and tools in hydrological processes such as precipitation forecasting. ANFIS model has good ability in train, construction and classification, and also has the advantage that allows the extraction of fuzzy rules from numerical information or knowledge. Another intelligent technique in recent years has been used in various areas is support vector machine (SVM. In this paper the ability of artificial intelligence methods including support vector machine (SVM and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS were analyzed in monthly precipitation prediction. Materials and Methods: The study area was the city of Gonbad in Golestan Province. The city has a temperate climate in the southern highlands and southern plains, mountains and temperate humid, semi-arid and semi-arid in the north of Gorganroud river. In total, the city's climate is temperate and humid. In the present study, monthly precipitation was modeled in Gonbad using ANFIS and SVM and two different database structures were designed. The first structure: input layer consisted of mean temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind speed at Gonbad station. The second structure: According to Pearson coefficient, the monthly precipitation data were used from four stations: Arazkoose, Bahalke, Tamar and Aqqala which had a higher correlation with Gonbad station precipitation. In this study precipitation data was used from 1995 to 2012. 80% data were used for model training and the remaining 20% of data for validation. SVM was developed from support vector machines in the 1990s by Vapnik. SVM has been widely recognized as a powerful tool to deal with function fitting problems. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS refers, in general, to an adaptive network which performs the function of a fuzzy inference system. The most commonly used fuzzy system in ANFIS architectures is the Sugeno model

  19. JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, Arturo

    2011-01-01

    The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

  20. A simple model for complex dissolution kinetics: a case study of norfloxacin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skrdla, Peter J

    2007-10-18

    A new semi-empirical model, particularly useful for studying complex dissolution kinetics, is presented here. It uses only two 'fit parameters', each possessing physically relevant units (in the time domain). The model is based on the idea that dispersion (variation) in the activation energy barrier may arise in certain cases, as a result of (quantized) molecular kinetic energies affecting the speed of the rate-determining step (r.d.s.) of the dissolution event. For such 'dispersive dissolutions', the r.d.s. is assumed to involve 2D denucleation. The author's dispersive kinetic model is shown to be applicable to the dissolution of various formulations of norfloxacin which produce very asymmetric, sigmoidal concentration versus time (C-t) profiles. It is derived by assuming an activation energy distribution having the functional form of the Maxwell-Boltzmann (M-B) distribution, coupled with a first-order rate expression. However, this model can also be reduced to give the same functional form as the classical Noyes-Whitney equation, in order to accurately fit/describe dissolution profiles which appear logarithmic (such profiles are due to dissolution phenomena that are not dispersive; i.e. for cases where the activation energy is essentially single-valued). Thus, the kinetic model presented in this work may potentially find broad applicability to the modeling of various dissolution trends observed in the literature.

  1. Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

    2015-11-01

    Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

  2. Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmoos, Michael; Henle, Klaus

    2010-11-01

    Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale. First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales. Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog ( Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required. The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.

  3. Generalized linear mixed models for multi-reader multi-case studies of diagnostic tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Zhang, Bo; Kotz, Richard M; Pennello, Gene; Zhang, Hui; Jacob, Jessie; Zhang, Zhiwei

    2017-06-01

    Diagnostic tests are often compared in multi-reader multi-case (MRMC) studies in which a number of cases (subjects with or without the disease in question) are examined by several readers using all tests to be compared. One of the commonly used methods for analyzing MRMC data is the Obuchowski-Rockette (OR) method, which assumes that the true area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for each combination of reader and test follows a linear mixed model with fixed effects for test and random effects for reader and the reader-test interaction. This article proposes generalized linear mixed models which generalize the OR model by incorporating a range-appropriate link function that constrains the true AUCs to the unit interval. The proposed models can be estimated by maximizing a pseudo-likelihood based on the approximate normality of AUC estimates. A Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm can be used to maximize the pseudo-likelihood, and a non-parametric bootstrap procedure can be used for inference. The proposed method is evaluated in a simulation study and applied to an MRMC study of breast cancer detection.

  4. Prediction of mutagenicity and carcinogenicity using in silico modelling: A case study of polychlorinated biphenyls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vračko, M; Bobst, S

    2015-01-01

    In silico modelling is an important alternative method for the evaluation of properties of chemical compounds. Basically, two concepts are used in its applications: QSAR modelling for endpoint predictions, and grouping (categorization) of large groups of chemicals. In the presented report we address both of these concepts. As a case study we present the results on a set of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and some of their metabolites. Their mutagenicity and carcinogenic potency were evaluated with CAESAR and T.E.S.T. models, which are freely available over the internet. We discuss the value and reliability of the predictions, the applicability domain of models and the ability to create prioritized groupings of PCBs as a category of chemicals.

  5. Towards personalized integrated dementia care: a qualitative study into the implementation of different models of case management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Mierlo, Lisa D; Meiland, Franka J M; Van Hout, Hein P J; Dröes, Rose-Marie

    2014-07-08

    The aim of this process evaluation was to provide insight into facilitators and barriers to the delivery of community-based personalized dementia care of two different case management models, i.e. the linkage model and the combined intensive case management/joint agency model. These two emerging dementia care models differ considerably in the way they are organized and implemented. Insight into facilitators and barriers in the implementation of different models is needed to create future guidelines for successful implementation of case management in other regions. A qualitative case study design was used; semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 stakeholders on the execution and continuation phases of the implementation process. The stakeholders represented a broad range of perspectives (i.e. project leaders, case managers, health insurers, municipalities). The independence of the case management organization in the intensive model facilitated the implementation, whereas the presence of multiple competing case management providers in the linkage model impeded the implementation. Most impeding factors were found in the linkage model and were related to the organizational structure of the dementia care network and how partners collaborate with each other in this network. The results of this process evaluation show that the intensive case management model is easier to implement as case managers in this model tend to be more able to provide quality of care, are less impeded by competitiveness of other care organizations and are more closely connected to the expert team than case managers in the linkage model.

  6. The error source analysis of oil spill transport modeling:a case study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; ZHU Jiang; WANG Hui; KUANG Xiaodi

    2013-01-01

    Numerical modeling is an important tool to study and predict the transport of oil spills. However, the accu-racy of numerical models is not always good enough to provide reliable information for oil spill transport. It is necessary to analyze and identify major error sources for the models. A case study was conducted to analyze error sources of a three-dimensional oil spill model that was used operationally for oil spill forecast-ing in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), the State Oceanic Administration, China. On June 4, 2011, oil from sea bed spilled into seawater in Penglai 19-3 region, the largest offshore oil field of China, and polluted an area of thousands of square kilometers in the Bohai Sea. Satellite remote sensing images were collected to locate oil slicks. By performing a series of model sensitivity experiments with different wind and current forcings and comparing the model results with the satellite images, it was identified that the major errors of the long-term simulation for oil spill transport were from the wind fields, and the wind-induced surface currents. An inverse model was developed to estimate the temporal variabil-ity of emission intensity at the oil spill source, which revealed the importance of the accuracy in oil spill source emission time function.

  7. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  8. Generating Hourly Rainfall Model using Bayesian Time Series Model (A Case Study at Sentral Station, Bondowoso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entin Hidayah

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disaggregation of hourly rainfall data is very important to fulfil the input of continual rainfall-runoff model, when the availability of automatic rainfall records are limited. Continual rainfall-runoff modeling requires rainfall data in form of series of hourly. Such specification can be obtained by temporal disaggregation in single site. The paper attempts to generate single-site rainfall model based upon time series (AR1 model by adjusting and establishing dummy procedure. Estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC the objective variable is hourly rainfall depth. Performance of model has been evaluated by comparison of history data and model prediction. The result shows that the model has a good performance for dry interval periods. The performance of the model good represented by smaller number of MAE by 0.21 respectively.

  9. Customer Ranking Model for Project Businesses: A Case Study from the Automotive Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Markus Zunk

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available For technology-orientated enterprises that operate project-based businesses, the goal-oriented allocation of scarce marketing resources has great potential to help consolidate their competitive position. An important precondition for goal-oriented management is the identification of the most valuable customers. This enables technology-orientated enterprises to segment markets in order to make tactical marketing decisions. This theorybased paper aims to develop and test a holistic customer ranking model. By deploying the five steps presented in this paper, customer relationship managers are better able to identify and to rank their customers in project-based businesses. A case study provides an example of the application of the method from the automotive industry in Austria. The experiences derived from this case study show that using a customer ranking framework is a crucial factor for enterprises in narrow technology markets to be successful and to achieve their corporate goals.

  10. System Simulation Modeling: A Case Study Illustration of the Model Development Life Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice K. Wiedenbeck; D. Earl Kline

    1994-01-01

    Systems simulation modeling techniques offer a method of representing the individual elements of a manufacturing system and their interactions. By developing and experimenting with simulation models, one can obtain a better understanding of the overall physical system. Forest products industries are beginning to understand the importance of simulation modeling to help...

  11. Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: a case study on protein kinase A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boras, Britton W; Hirakis, Sophia P; Votapka, Lane W; Malmstrom, Robert D; Amaro, Rommie E; McCulloch, Andrew D

    2015-01-01

    The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained from various scales and analysis approaches, such as atomistic molecular models, Markov state models (MSM), subcellular network models, and whole cell models. In this paper, we use protein kinase A (PKA) activation as a case study to explore how computational methods that model different physical scales can complement each other and integrate into an improved multiscale representation of the biological mechanisms. Using measured crystal structures, we show how molecular dynamics (MD) simulations coupled with atomic-scale MSMs can provide conformations for Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations to feed transitional states and kinetic parameters into protein-scale MSMs. We discuss how milestoning can give reaction probabilities and forward-rate constants of cAMP association events by seamlessly integrating MD and BD simulation scales. These rate constants coupled with MSMs provide a robust representation of the free energy landscape, enabling access to kinetic, and thermodynamic parameters unavailable from current experimental data. These approaches have helped to illuminate the cooperative nature of PKA activation in response to distinct cAMP binding events. Collectively, this approach exemplifies a general strategy for multiscale model development that is applicable to a wide range of biological problems.

  12. Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: A case study on Protein Kinase A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia P Hirakis

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained from various scales and analysis approaches, such as atomistic molecular models, Markov state models (MSM, subcellular network models, and whole cell models. In this paper, we use protein kinase A (PKA activation as a case study to explore how computational methods that model different physical scales can complement each other and integrate into an improved multiscale representation of the biological mechanisms. Using measured crystal structures, we show how molecular dynamics (MD simulations coupled with atomic-scale MSMs can provide conformations for Brownian dynamics (BD simulations to feed transitional states and kinetic parameters into protein-scale MSMs. We discuss how milestoning can give reaction probabilities and forward-rate constants of cAMP association events by seamlessly integrating MD and BD simulation scales. These rate constants coupled with MSMs provide a robust representation of the free energy landscape, enabling access to kinetic and thermodynamic parameters unavailable from current experimental data. These approaches have helped to illuminate the cooperative nature of PKA activation in response to distinct cAMP binding events. Collectively, this approach exemplifies a general strategy for multiscale model development that is applicable to a wide range of biological problems.

  13. Semi- vs. Fully-Distributed Urban Stormwater Models: Model Set Up and Comparison with Two Real Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Daniel Pina

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Urban stormwater models can be semi-distributed (SD or fully distributed (FD. SD models are based on subcatchment units with various land use types, where rainfall is applied and runoff volumes are estimated and routed. FD models are based on the two dimensional (2D discretization of the overland surface, which has a finer resolution with each grid-cell representing one land use type, where runoff volumes are estimated and directly routed by the 2D overland flow module. While SD models have been commonly applied in urban stormwater modeling, FD models are generally more detailed and theoretically more realistic. This paper presents a comparison between SD and FD models using two case studies in Coimbra (Portugal and London (UK. To enable direct comparison between SD and FD setups, a model-building process is proposed and a novel sewer inlet representation is applied. SD and FD modeling results are compared against observed records in sewers and photographic records of flood events. The results suggest that FD models are more sensitive to surface storage parameters and require higher detail of the sewer network representation.

  14. Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidale, P.L.; Pielke, R.A.; Steyaert, L.T.; Barr, A.

    1997-01-01

    Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

  15. Air quality assessment based on road traffic pollutants dispersion modelling: Giurgiu – Ruse Bridge Case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragos MIHAI

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a case study related to air quality assessment along an important high traffic bridge (Giurgiu - Ruse, by dispersion modelling of the main pollutants. In order to estimate the level of pollution caused by bridge road traffic in the closest urban areas, Giurgiu and Ruse and based on the traffic data, four scenarios for the air quality assessment have been carried out according to different meteorological conditions. The dispersion modeling was realized on specialized environmental pollution software, which features a fully operational Gauss model in its base module. There are presented dispersion maps for the main road traffic pollutants (NOx, CO, SO2, THC, aiming to evaluate their impact on the urban areas vicinity, in four different wind directions scenarios, at a constant temperature. Conclusions are presented according to available European Legislation and future scenarios are proposed, for other different meteorological conditions.

  16. Evaluation of the Cost Estimation Models: Case Study of Task Manager Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mugahed Al Qmase

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The need to accurately estimate time and cost for effective planning of software projects is becoming crucial driven by the escalating demands of the software market. Several models proposed in the history of Software Engineering discipline to estimate time, costs associated with planning and managing software projects as Line of Code (LOC, Function Point (FP and Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO. This paper focuses upon the COCOMO Model. It is further consisted of its two sub models called COCOMO I and COCOMO II. The primary objective of this research is to use an appropriate case study to evaluate the accuracy of the sub models COCOMO I and II and ascertain the variation of the realistic resource effort, staff and time. The findings to date show that the Application Composition Model of COCOMO II is more accurate in determining time and cost for the successful conclusion of a software project than the other two COCOMO I and II Models for a similar application for example Task Manager.

  17. Assimilating SAR-derived water level data into a hydraulic model: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Giustarini

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based active microwave sensors not only provide synoptic overviews of flooded areas, but also offer an effective way to estimate spatially distributed river water levels. If rapidly produced and processed, these data can be used for updating hydraulic models in near real-time. The usefulness of such approaches with real event data sets provided by currently existing sensors has yet to be demonstrated. In this case study, a Particle Filter-based assimilation scheme is used to integrate ERS-2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR-derived water level data into a one-dimensional (1-D hydraulic model of the Alzette River. Two variants of the Particle Filter assimilation scheme are proposed with a global and local particle weighting procedure. The first option finds the best water stage line across all cross sections, while the second option finds the best solution at individual cross sections. The variant that is to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. The results show that the Particle Filter-based assimilation of remote sensing-derived water elevation data provides a significant reduction to the model forecast uncertainty. Moreover, it is shown that the periodical updating of hydraulic models through the proposed assimilation scheme leads to an improvement of model predictions over several time steps. However, the performance of the assimilation depends on the skill of the hydraulic model and the quality of the observation data.

  18. Modeling Soil Sodicity Problems under Dryland and Irrigated Conditions: Case Studies in Argentina and Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso

    2014-05-01

    Salt-affected soils, both saline and sodic, my develop both under dryland and irrigated conditions, affecting negatively the physical and chemical soil properties, the crop production and the animal and human health.Among the development processes of salt-affected soils, the processes of sodification have been generally received less attention and is less understood than the development of saline soils. Although in both of them, hydrological processes are involved in their development, in the case of sodic soils we have to consider some additional chemical and physicochemical reactions, making more difficult their modeling and prediction. In this contribution we present two case studies: one related to the development of sodic soils in the lowlands of the Argentina Pampas, under dryland conditions and sub-humid temperate climate, with pastures for cattle production; the other deals with the development of sodic soils in the Colombia Cauca Valley, under irrigated conditions and tropical sub-humid climate, in lands used for sugarcane cropping dedicated to sugar and ethanol production. In both cases the development of sodicity in the surface soil is mainly related to the effects of the composition and level of groundwater, affected in the case of Argentina Pampas by the off-site changes in dryland use and management in the upper zones and by the drainage conditions in the lowlands, and in the case of the Cauca Valley, by the on-site irrigation and drainage management in lands with sugarcane. There is shown how the model SALSODIMAR, developed by the main author, based on the balance of water and soluble componentes of both the irrigation water and groundwater under different water and land management conditions, may be adapted for the diagnosis and prediction of both problems, and for the selection of alternatives for their management and amelioration.

  19. Study and case simulation of a regional dust model coupled with a nonhydrostatic dynamics model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Conglan; WANG Yingchun; LIU Weidong; ZHANG Xiaoling; XU Xiaofeng; XIE Pu

    2004-01-01

    A new regional dust model suitable for simulation and forecasting of dust storms over northern China was described. The dust model was developed by coupling the mesoscale dynamics model MM5 (the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model) with a set of mass conservation equations for the particles. The model includes all the atmospheric physical processes of dust storms including occurrence, lifting, transport, and dry and wet deposition. It considers the parameterization of dry and wet deposition, the dust size distribution and microphysical processes in detail. The dust flux from the surface is parameterized based on the friction velocity, which is provided by the mesoscale nonhydrostatic dynamics model, which takes account of the vegetation coverage, land use, soil category, and soil moisture. This new dust model is used to simulate the dust storm that occurred on 19-21 March, 2002 in North China. The results show that there is high dust concentration and its movement is consistent with the surface weather record and satellite monitoring images of the observed dust storm. The simulated dust concentration coincides with the observation data of the particulate concentration of PM10 (dust particles smaller than 10 μm in diameter). The new numerical model also successfully simulates the formation and migration of the dust storm of 6-8 April, 2002 in North China.

  20. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  1. Evaluation of new secondary organic aerosol models for a case study in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Dzepina

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Recent field studies have found large discrepancies in the measured vs. modeled SOA mass loadings in both urban and regional polluted atmospheres. The reasons for these large differences are unclear. Here we revisit a case study of SOA formation in Mexico City described by Volkamer et al. (2006, during a photochemically active period when the impact of regional biomass burning is minor or negligible, and show that the observed increase in OA/ΔCO is consistent with results from several groups during MILAGRO 2006. Then we use the case study to evaluate three new SOA models: 1 the update of aromatic SOA yields from recent chamber experiments (Ng et al., 2007; 2 the formation of SOA from glyoxal (Volkamer et al., 2007a; and 3 the formation of SOA from primary semivolatile and intermediate volatility species (P-S/IVOC (Robinson et al., 2007. We also evaluate the effect of reduced partitioning of SOA into POA (Song et al., 2007. Traditional SOA precursors (mainly aromatics by themselves still fail to produce enough SOA to match the observations by a factor of 7. The new low-NOx aromatic pathways with very high SOA yields make a very small contribution in this high-NOx urban environment as the RO2.+NO reaction dominates the fate of the RO2. radicals. Glyoxal contributes several μg m−3 to SOA formation, with similar timing as the measurements. P-S/IVOC are estimated from equilibrium with emitted POA, and introduce a large amount of gas-phase oxidizable carbon that was not in models before. With the formulation in Robinson et al. (2007 these species have a high SOA yield, and this mechanism can close the gap in SOA mass between measurements and models in our case study. However the volatility of SOA produced in the model is too high and the O/C ratio is lower than observations. Glyoxal SOA helps to bring the O/C ratio of predicted and observed SOA into better agreement. The

  2. Preference learning for cognitive modeling: a case study on entertainment preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yannakakis, Georgios; Maragoudakis, Manolis; Hallam, John

    2009-01-01

    Learning from preferences, which provide means for expressing a subject's desires, constitutes an important topic in machine learning research. This paper presents a comparative study of four alternative instance preference learning algorithms (both linear and nonlinear). The case study...... investigated is to learn to predict the expressed entertainment preferences of children when playing physical games built on their personalized playing features (entertainment modeling). Two of the approaches are derived from the literature--the large-margin algorithm (LMA) and preference learning...... with Gaussian processes--while the remaining two are custom-designed approaches for the problem under investigation: meta-LMA and neuroevolution. Preference learning techniques are combined with feature set selection methods permitting the construction of effective preference models, given suitable individual...

  3. A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragan, R. M.; Jackson, T. J.; Fitch, W. N.; Shubinski, R. P.

    1976-01-01

    Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

  4. Epistatic module detection for case-control studies: a Bayesian model with a Gibbs sampling strategy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanwan Tang

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The detection of epistatic interactive effects of multiple genetic variants on the susceptibility of human complex diseases is a great challenge in genome-wide association studies (GWAS. Although methods have been proposed to identify such interactions, the lack of an explicit definition of epistatic effects, together with computational difficulties, makes the development of new methods indispensable. In this paper, we introduce epistatic modules to describe epistatic interactive effects of multiple loci on diseases. On the basis of this notion, we put forward a Bayesian marker partition model to explain observed case-control data, and we develop a Gibbs sampling strategy to facilitate the detection of epistatic modules. Comparisons of the proposed approach with three existing methods on seven simulated disease models demonstrate the superior performance of our approach. When applied to a genome-wide case-control data set for Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD, the proposed approach successfully identifies two known susceptible loci and suggests that a combination of two other loci -- one in the gene SGCD and the other in SCAPER -- is associated with the disease. Further functional analysis supports the speculation that the interaction of these two genetic variants may be responsible for the susceptibility of AMD. When applied to a genome-wide case-control data set for Parkinson's disease, the proposed method identifies seven suspicious loci that may contribute independently to the disease.

  5. Modeling and processing for next-generation big-data technologies with applications and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Barolli, Leonard; Barolli, Admir; Papajorgji, Petraq

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest advances in Big Data technologies and provides the readers with a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in Big Data processing, analysis, analytics, and other related topics. It presents new models, algorithms, software solutions and methodologies, covering the full data cycle, from data gathering to their visualization and interaction, and includes a set of case studies and best practices. New research issues, challenges and opportunities shaping the future agenda in the field of Big Data are also identified and presented throughout the book, which is intended for researchers, scholars, advanced students, software developers and practitioners working at the forefront in their field.

  6. Business Model Innovation: Insights from a Multiple Case Study of Slovenian SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marolt Marjeta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Business model innovation (BMI has become increasingly important, especially in the fast changing business environment. While large enterprises approach these changes systematically, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs are left to their own resourcefulness. For the purpose of developing dedicated methods and tools to support different SMEs in addressing these challenges, we have conducted a multiple case study to gain insights into factors that drive SMEs to innovate their BM, how they approach BMI and what changes they made to their BM.

  7. Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardin, Jaline; Bever, Caitlin A; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Miller, John M; Eisele, Thomas P; Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A

    2017-06-12

    Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive case detection is best poised to push a region to elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling to assess how baseline transmission intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of reactive activities in the context of other possible intervention packages. Communities in Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination operations are currently underway, were used as representatives of three archetypes of malaria transmission: low-transmission, high household density; high-transmission, low household density; and high-transmission, high household density. Transmission at the spatially-connected household level was simulated with a dynamical model of malaria transmission, and local variation in vectorial capacity and intervention coverage were parameterized according to data collected from the area. Various potential intervention packages were imposed on each of the archetypical settings and the resulting likelihoods of elimination by the end of 2020 were compared. Simulations predict that success of elimination campaigns in both low- and high-transmission areas is strongly dependent on stemming the flow of imported infections, underscoring the need for regional-scale strategies capable of reducing transmission concurrently across many connected areas. In historically low-transmission areas, treatment of clinical malaria should form the cornerstone of elimination operations, as most malaria infections in these areas are symptomatic and onward transmission would be mitigated through health system strengthening; reactive case detection has minimal impact in these settings. In historically high-transmission areas, vector control and case management are crucial for limiting outbreak size, and the asymptomatic reservoir must be addressed through

  8. Case Studies' Effect on Undergraduates' Achievement, Attitudes, and Team Shared Mental Models in Educational Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzouk, Rim; Johnson, Tristan E.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of case studies on learning outcomes, attitudes toward instructions, and team shared mental models (SMM) in a team-based learning environment in an undergraduate educational psychology course. Approximately 105 students who participated in this study were randomly assigned to either a case-study…

  9. Case Studies' Effect on Undergraduates' Achievement, Attitudes, and Team Shared Mental Models in Educational Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzouk, Rim; Johnson, Tristan E.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of case studies on learning outcomes, attitudes toward instructions, and team shared mental models (SMM) in a team-based learning environment in an undergraduate educational psychology course. Approximately 105 students who participated in this study were randomly assigned to either a case-study…

  10. Crawling motility through the analysis of model locomotors: two case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSimone, A; Tatone, A

    2012-09-01

    We study model locomotors on a substrate, which derive their propulsive capabilities from the tangential (viscous or frictional) resistance offered by the substrate. Our aim is to develop new tools and insight for future studies of cellular motility by crawling and of collective bacterial motion. The purely viscous case (worm) is relevant for cellular motility by crawling of individual cells. We re-examine some recent results on snail locomotion in order to assess the role of finely regulated adhesion mechanisms in crawling motility. Our main conclusion is that such regulation, although well documented in several biological systems, is not indispensable to accomplish locomotion driven by internal deformations, provided that the crawler may execute sufficiently large body deformations. Thus, there is no snail theorem. Namely, the crawling analog of the scallop theorem of low Reynolds number hydrodynamics does not hold for snail-like crawlers. The frictional case is obtained by assuming that the viscous coefficient governing tangential resistance forces, which act parallel and in the direction opposite to the velocity of the point to which they are applied, depends on the normal force acting at that point. We combine these surface interactions with inertial effects in order to investigate the mechanisms governing the motility of a bristle-robot. This model locomotor is easily manufactured and has been proposed as an effective tool to replicate and study collective bacterial motility.

  11. Construction waste management based on industrial management models: a Swedish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenis, Jan

    2005-02-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the true internal costs of construction waste, aimed at promoting environmentally friendly waste management. The study employs cost-benefit analysis, contribution margin analysis, the polluter-pays principle and a mathematical model: the model for Efficient Use of Resources for Optimal Production Economy (EUROPE), which has been introduced previously by the author for assigning industrial costs to waste. The calculations are performed on construction waste created in a case study of a building project. Moreover, waste is regarded as, in a business sense, having the same basic status as any normal industrial product, namely the 'equality principle'. Application of the methodology is suggested to create incentives for environmental and profitability improvement in construction companies and other types of industrial sectors. The results of the case study show the generation of construction waste to substantially decrease the final operating income, due to the internal shadow price cost it creates. This paper is intended to reduce the gap between the choice of waste management procedures and their economic impact, the overall objective being to accomplish an improved industrial environmental situation.

  12. PARALLEL MODELS OF ASSESSMENT: INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THERAPEUTIC ASSESSMENT MODELS INTERSECT THROUGH EARLY CHILDHOOD CASE STUDIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gart, Natalie; Zamora, Irina; Williams, Marian E

    2016-07-01

    Therapeutic Assessment (TA; S.E. Finn & M.E. Tonsager, 1997; J.D. Smith, 2010) is a collaborative, semistructured model that encourages self-discovery and meaning-making through the use of assessment as an intervention approach. This model shares core strategies with infant mental health assessment, including close collaboration with parents and caregivers, active participation of the family, a focus on developing new family stories and increasing parents' understanding of their child, and reducing isolation and increasing hope through the assessment process. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches is explored, using case studies of three infants/young children and their families to illustrate the application of TA to infant mental health. The case of an 18-month-old girl whose parents fear that she has bipolar disorder illustrates the core principles of the TA model, highlighting the use of assessment intervention sessions and the clinical approach to preparing assessment feedback. The second case follows an infant with a rare genetic syndrome from ages 2 to 24 months, focusing on the assessor-parent relationship and the importance of a developmental perspective. Finally, assessment of a 3-year-old boy illustrates the development and use of a fable as a tool to provide feedback to a young child about assessment findings and recommendations. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  13. Comparative Study of Elastic Network Model and Protein Contact Network for Protein Complexes: The Hemoglobin Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall topology and interfacial interactions play key roles in understanding structural and functional principles of protein complexes. Elastic Network Model (ENM and Protein Contact Network (PCN are two widely used methods for high throughput investigation of structures and interactions within protein complexes. In this work, the comparative analysis of ENM and PCN relative to hemoglobin (Hb was taken as case study. We examine four types of structural and dynamical paradigms, namely, conformational change between different states of Hbs, modular analysis, allosteric mechanisms studies, and interface characterization of an Hb. The comparative study shows that ENM has an advantage in studying dynamical properties and protein-protein interfaces, while PCN is better for describing protein structures quantitatively both from local and from global levels. We suggest that the integration of ENM and PCN would give a potential but powerful tool in structural systems biology.

  14. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  15. Finding the effective parameter perturbations in atmospheric models: the LORENZ63 model as case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate i

  16. Using Visual Analysis to Evaluate and Refine Multilevel Models of Single-Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Eun Kyeng; Petit-Bois, Merlande; Van den Noortgate, Wim; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Ferron, John M.

    2016-01-01

    In special education, multilevel models of single-case research have been used as a method of estimating treatment effects over time and across individuals. Although multilevel models can accurately summarize the effect, it is known that if the model is misspecified, inferences about the effects can be biased. Concern with the potential for model…

  17. Business performance assessment and the EFQM Excellence Model 2010 (case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Antošová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of the latest management methods becomes today, during the ongoing European integration processes, a requisite for the success of the business within the environment of international markets. In this paper, the authors pay attention to the expansion of the organizational knowledge base with an application of a new management method. They are dealing with assessment of the organization performance, the issue of its effectiveness and the increasing economic efficiency, on an example of a selected mining company as a case study. In order to detect weaknesses in the company reviewed and to offer suggestions for improvement, which may move the company towards prosperity, the authors carried out the performance assessment by using the EFQM Excellence Model 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the business performance assessment model in terms of the European standards that will allow the use of latest management methods in the environment of both the Slovak and European companies.

  18. Bayesian Modeling for Genetic Anticipation in Presence of Mutational Heterogeneity: A Case Study in Lynch Syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boonstra, Philip S; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Taylor, Jeremy M G;

    2011-01-01

    inferential conclusions. We compare the fit of four-candidate random effects distributions via Bayesian model fit diagnostics. A related statistical issue here is isolating the confounding effect of changes in secular trends, screening, and medical practices that may affect time to disease detection across...... to cause hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, also called Lynch syndrome (LS). We find evidence for a decrease in AOO between generations in this article. Our model predicts family-level anticipation effects that are potentially useful in genetic counseling clinics for high-risk families....... birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known...

  19. 3D MODELS FOR THE RESTORATION PROJECT: SOME ISSUES AND A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Novello

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This contribute aim to explore 3D modelling and its practical applications investigating scales of representation and scales of contents. The goal of this research work was to test the flexibility of modeling tools to different field of application and to draw shared methods, even if they are applied. During the research occurred some problems that should be considered as central for future developments. They will drive the mainlines for the refinement of software and application technologies, but it must be remembered that, first of all, the direct experience and the validation with practical case studies must be absolutely taken into account. On the basis of the outcomes and of research directions for the future, it has paved the way to thinking useful to the implementation of the method and to the management of the graphic results.

  20. A Case Study of the Accounting Models for the Participants in an Emissions Trading Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Deac

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available As emissions trading schemes are becoming more popular across the world, accounting has to keep up with these new economic developments. The absence of guidance regarding the accounting for greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions generated by the withdrawal of IFRIC 3- Emission Rights - is the main reason why there is a diversity of accounting practices. This diversity of accounting methods makes the financial statements of companies that are taking part in emissions trading schemes like EU ETS, difficult to compare. The present paper uses a case study that assumes the existence of three entities that have chosen three different accounting methods: the IFRIC 3 cost model, the IFRIC 3 revaluation model and the “off balance sheet” approach. This illustrates how the choice of an accounting method regarding GHGs emissions influences their interim and annual reports through the chances in the companies’ balance sheet and financial results.

  1. A comparison of different hydrologic modeling approaches: the case study of Cerfone river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venturi, Sara; Di Francesco, Silvia; Manciola, Piergiorgio

    2016-04-01

    The increasing occurrence of extreme meteorological events and the strong land exploitation, especially the overbuilding and urbanization of the flood prone areas, has led to a considerable increase of the hydraulic risk associated to these areas and, consequently, to an effort of institutions and researchers to find proper solutions. The analyzed case study deals with the Cerfone river, a tributary of the Tiber River, in the Tuscany region (Italy). The complex morphology of the floodplains and the presence of hydraulic structures (i.e. bridges) that block the river discharge cross section, cause the periodic flooding of the neighbouring small villages during extreme weather events. The flood hazard management and safety plan implementation is strictly connected to the hydrological modeling of river basin.The uncertainty in rain- run off evaluation can lead to different results in terms of discharge peak and hydrographs shape, affecting then all the next risk analysis. The choice of the hydrologic model to apply in the study of Hydraulic Risk delineation is therefore a critical issue. In this work three different approaches to model the basin hydrological response are used and discussed: i) lumped model built in accordance with the standards of methodological model of ALTo (ALluvioni Toscana, Tuscany Region), generally used in the region for hydrologic and hydraulic studies; ii) a semi-distributed model, performed using the hydrological software model HEC - HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center, US Army Corps of Engineers), which is based on the evaluation of the value of critical duration storm at significant sections of the basin. It is based on models for estimated losses, inflows - outflows transformation method and meteorological model in accordance with the standards of ALTo; iii) lumped model based on the rational equation and the concentration time of Giandotti, in accordance with the methodology of the Tiber River Basin Authority. The critical analysis and

  2. MEASURING SERVICE QUALITY USING SERVQUAL MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF BROKERAGE OFFICES IN IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rajabipoor Meybodi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Many organizations especially service organizations to suit their ideals and mission specific approach to the topic that have quality and management. This paper is intended to subject the importance of quality serve the brokerage offices, the gap analysis using the model and analysis techniques to Servqual quality service brokerage offices presented a case study (Stock Brokerage office's regional provinces Yazd pay. Design/methodology/approach: Application of statistical non-parametric test for the qualitative analysis of significant gaps in services, suggestions for improving the quality of brokerage services at a low-level case study is presented. Statistic's tests in five areas, including service quality conceptual donor tangible form, reply to, guarantee, credit, and charity have been. For this purpose, based on service quality gaps five branches, a questionnaire measure designed level perception and expectations of investors and broker's service brokerage offices, and the navigation. Findings: Results show that donor expectations and perceptions between investor's quality service brokerage offices in all areas, there are significant differences. Brokerage Managers, the models analyze d using the service quality, will be able to create gaps between the way the service provided, i.e., investors and agents known to the agency planned to strengthen and reform pay problems. Originality/value: Servqual technique used for the first time in Iran and in particular, in Yazd province, for the assessment the service quality of brokerage offices. It certainly results in improving the quality of services these offices will be effective.

  3. Geomechanical reservoir models. A case study from the Sirte Basin / Libya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henk, Andreas [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geowissenschaften; Frischbutter, Andreas [Wintershall Holding AG, Kassel (Germany); Tawengi, Khaeri Segayer [National Oil Company, Tripoli (Libya)

    2010-03-15

    Geomechanical reservoir models on the basis of numerical simulation techniques provide a tool for the prediction of tectonic stresses and fractures. The workflow to set up and calibrate a geomechanical reservoir model includes import of the subsurface geometry as well as assignment of mechanical properties and boundary conditions. If well data are available, calculated stresses and fractures can be calibrated against observed data. Modeling results are relevant for a variety of tasks ranging from borehole stability and fault slip analysis to planning of hydraulic fracs. Application to a data set from a reservoir in the Eastern Sirte basin of Libya illustrates the practical potential of the modelling approach. The case study shows that stress orientations including local perturbations can be predicted with considerable accuracy even if the reservoir and fault geometries are primarily derived from seismic data, i.e. if well data is sparse. By nature, fracture prediction is less robust as it has to build on several poorly constrained input parameters like magnitude and orientation of paleo-stresses, paleo-pore pressures and former rock mechanical properties. Consequently, sufficient well data with fracture orientations observed on borehole image logs are required to calibrate the geomechanical model and provide a reliable base for fracture prognoses in the inter-well space. (orig.)

  4. Identifying 'unhealthy' food advertising on television: a case study applying the UK Nutrient Profile model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkin, Gabrielle; Wilson, Nick; Hermanson, Nicole

    2009-05-01

    To evaluate the feasibility of the UK Nutrient Profile (NP) model for identifying 'unhealthy' food advertisements using a case study of New Zealand television advertisements. Four weeks of weekday television from 15.30 hours to 18.30 hours was videotaped from a state-owned (free-to-air) television channel popular with children. Food advertisements were identified and their nutritional information collected in accordance with the requirements of the NP model. Nutrient information was obtained from a variety of sources including food labels, company websites and a national nutritional database. From the 60 h sample of weekday afternoon television, there were 1893 advertisements, of which 483 were for food products or retailers. After applying the NP model, 66 % of these were classified as advertising high-fat, high-salt and high-sugar (HFSS) foods; 28 % were classified as advertising non-HFSS foods; and the remaining 2 % were unclassifiable. More than half (53 %) of the HFSS food advertisements were for 'mixed meal' items promoted by major fast-food franchises. The advertising of non-HFSS food was sparse, covering a narrow range of food groups, with no advertisements for fresh fruit or vegetables. Despite the NP model having some design limitations in classifying real-world televised food advertisements, it was easily applied to this sample and could clearly identify HFSS products. Policy makers who do not wish to completely restrict food advertising to children outright should consider using this NP model for regulating food advertising.

  5. Evaluating Hub and Spoke models of practice learning in Scotland, UK: a multiple case study approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxburgh, Michelle; Conlon, Margaret; Banks, Debbie

    2012-10-01

    Most of UK students' practice learning experience is based on a rotational placement model which often leads to students lacking confidence and feeling anxious about the complexities of the care environment. To evaluate the impact of Hub and Spoke model(s) of clinical practice placement across geographically diverse locations, with a particular focus on enhancing the student practice learning experience. Multiple case study design. Comprised undergraduate student nurses from Adult, Learning Disability and Mental Health programmes from 3 Scottish Schools of Nursing. A mixed methods approach which included quantitative and qualitative date tools. All three Hub and Spoke models shared two broad findings: 1) In the three Hub and Spoke models detailed in this paper, there is a continuum of student led learning which supports the process with opportunities for individual students to be positively innovative and creative in their learning approaches. Depth of learning was achieved in two ways; a) the method in which Hub placements are organised, managed and structured and, b) the depth of empathy and sensitivity to the individual at the centre of the care. 2) Placement capacity is increased: The classification of placements is reviewed to produce broader categories, Engagement of mentors/enhanced student/mentor relationship. Practice Learning must be seen as an academic endeavour that promotes deep, meaningful, person-centred learning rather than superficial, compartmentalised placement-centred learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 3D Geological Modeling and Visualization of Rock Masses Based on Google Earth: A Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Mei, Gang; Xu, Nengxiong

    2013-01-01

    Google Earth (GE) has become a powerful tool for geological modeling and visualization. An interesting and useful feature of GE, Google Street View, can allow the GE users to view geological structure such as layers of rock masses at a field site. In this paper, we introduce a practical solution for building 3D geological models for rock masses based on the data acquired by use with GE. A real study case at Haut-Barr, France is presented to demonstrate our solution. We first locate the position of Haut-Barr in GE, and then determine the shape and scale of the rock masses in the study area, and thirdly acquire the layout of layers of rock masses in the Google Street View, and finally create the approximate 3D geological models by extruding and intersecting. The generated 3D geological models can simply reflect the basic structure of the rock masses at Haut-Barr, and can be used for visualizing the rock bodies interactively.

  7. Are Earth System model software engineering practices fit for purpose? A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterbrook, S. M.; Johns, T. C.

    2009-04-01

    We present some analysis and conclusions from a case study of the culture and practices of scientists at the Met Office and Hadley Centre working on the development of software for climate and Earth System models using the MetUM infrastructure. The study examined how scientists think about software correctness, prioritize their requirements in making changes, and develop a shared understanding of the resulting models. We conclude that highly customized techniques driven strongly by scientific research goals have evolved for verification and validation of such models. In a formal software engineering context these represents costly, but invaluable, software integration tests with considerable benefits. The software engineering practices seen also exhibit recognisable features of both agile and open source software development projects - self-organisation of teams consistent with a meritocracy rather than top-down organisation, extensive use of informal communication channels, and software developers who are generally also users and science domain experts. We draw some general conclusions on whether these practices work well, and what new software engineering challenges may lie ahead as Earth System models become ever more complex and petascale computing becomes the norm.

  8. Case Study: Writing a Journal Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prud'homme-Genereux, Annie

    2016-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue describes incorporating a journal article into the classroom by first converting it into a case study.

  9. Case Study: Writing a Journal Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prud'homme-Genereux, Annie

    2016-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue describes incorporating a journal article into the classroom by first converting it into a case study.

  10. PLS path model building: A multivariate approach to land price studies-A case study in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenjie Wu; Wenzhong Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have revealed that statistical methods can be used to analyze land-leasing parcel data. However, the conventional statistical methods used in land analysis have some limitations, especially in cases of limited observational data. In this paper, with the help of geographic information system (GIS) techniques, a partial least squares (PLS) path model is applied to study the relationship between residential land prices and various determinants through a case study of Beijing in China. From a preliminary analysis, four latent variables are selected: accessibility of the workplace center, livability, traffic, and environment facilities. The results show that the observation variables have a strong explanatory power for their corresponding latent variables, and the four latent variables have varying impacts on residential land prices. Of the latent variables, accessibility to the workplace center has the strongest impact on the residential land price.

  11. Effects of Aftershock Declustering in Risk Modeling: Case Study of a Subduction Sequence in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, D. L.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake hazard and risk models often assume that earthquake rates can be represented by a stationary Poisson process, and that aftershocks observed in historical seismicity catalogs represent a deviation from stationarity that must be corrected before earthquake rates are estimated. Algorithms for classifying individual earthquakes as independent mainshocks or as aftershocks vary widely, and analysis of a single catalog can produce considerably different earthquake rates depending on the declustering method implemented. As these rates are propagated through hazard and risk models, the modeled results will vary due to the assumptions implied by these choices. In particular, the removal of large aftershocks following a mainshock may lead to an underestimation of the rate of damaging earthquakes and potential damage due to a large aftershock may be excluded from the model. We present a case study based on the 1907 - 1911 sequence of nine 6.9 Mexico in order to illustrate the variability in risk under various declustering approaches. Previous studies have suggested that subduction zone earthquakes in Mexico tend to occur in clusters, and this particular sequence includes events that would be labeled as aftershocks in some declustering approaches yet are large enough to produce significant damage. We model the ground motion for each event, determine damage ratios using modern exposure data, and then compare the variability in the modeled damage from using the full catalog or one of several declustered catalogs containing only "independent" events. We also consider the effects of progressive damage caused by each subsequent event and how this might increase or decrease the total losses expected from this sequence.

  12. On-line Meteorology-Chemistry/Aerosols Modelling and Integration for Risk Assessment: Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostanbekov, Kairat; Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Zakarin, Edige; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    On regional level, and especially in areas with potential diverse sources of industrial pollutants, the risk assessment of impact on environment and population is critically important. During normal operations, the risk is minimal. However, during accidental situations, the risk is increased due to releases of harmful pollutants into different environments such as water, soil, and atmosphere where it is following processes of continuous transformation and transport. In this study, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment High Resolution Limited Area Model) was adapted and employed for assessment of scenarios with accidental and continuous emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) for selected case studies during January of 2010. The following scenarios were considered: (i) control reference run; (ii) accidental release (due to short-term 1 day fire at oil storage facility) occurred at city of Atyrau (Kazakhstan) near the northern part of the Caspian Sea; and (iii) doubling of original continuous emissions from three locations of metallurgical enterprises on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). The implemented aerosol microphysics module M7 uses 5 types - sulphates, sea salt, dust, black and organic carbon; as well as distributed in 7 size modes. Removal processes of aerosols include gravitational settling and wet deposition. As the Enviro-HIRLAM model is the on-line integrated model, both meteorological and chemical processes are simultaneously modelled at each time step. The modelled spatio-temporal variations for meteorological and chemical patterns are analyzed for both European and Kazakhstan regions domains. The results of evaluation of sulphur dioxide concentration and deposition on main populated cities, selected regions, countries are presented employing GIS tools. As outcome, the results of Enviro-HIRLAM modelling for accidental release near the Caspian Sea are integrated into the RANDOM (Risk Assessment of Nature Detriment due to Oil spill Migration) system.

  13. Missing exposure data in stereotype regression model: application to matched case-control study with disease subclassification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jaeil; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Gruber, Stephen B; Sinha, Samiran

    2011-06-01

    With advances in modern medicine and clinical diagnosis, case-control data with characterization of finer subtypes of cases are often available. In matched case-control studies, missingness in exposure values often leads to deletion of entire stratum, and thus entails a significant loss in information. When subtypes of cases are treated as categorical outcomes, the data are further stratified and deletion of observations becomes even more expensive in terms of precision of the category-specific odds-ratio parameters, especially using the multinomial logit model. The stereotype regression model for categorical responses lies intermediate between the proportional odds and the multinomial or baseline category logit model. The use of this class of models has been limited as the structure of the model implies certain inferential challenges with nonidentifiability and nonlinearity in the parameters. We illustrate how to handle missing data in matched case-control studies with finer disease subclassification within the cases under a stereotype regression model. We present both Monte Carlo based full Bayesian approach and expectation/conditional maximization algorithm for the estimation of model parameters in the presence of a completely general missingness mechanism. We illustrate our methods by using data from an ongoing matched case-control study of colorectal cancer. Simulation results are presented under various missing data mechanisms and departures from modeling assumptions.

  14. Generalized functional linear models for gene-based case-control association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Carter, Tonia C; Lobach, Iryna; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Weeks, Daniel E; Xiong, Momiao

    2014-11-01

    By using functional data analysis techniques, we developed generalized functional linear models for testing association between a dichotomous trait and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region while adjusting for covariates. Both fixed and mixed effect models are developed and compared. Extensive simulations show that Rao's efficient score tests of the fixed effect models are very conservative since they generate lower type I errors than nominal levels, and global tests of the mixed effect models generate accurate type I errors. Furthermore, we found that the Rao's efficient score test statistics of the fixed effect models have higher power than the sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified version (SKAT-O) in most cases when the causal variants are both rare and common. When the causal variants are all rare (i.e., minor allele frequencies less than 0.03), the Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests have similar or slightly lower power than SKAT and SKAT-O. In practice, it is not known whether rare variants or common variants in a gene region are disease related. All we can assume is that a combination of rare and common variants influences disease susceptibility. Thus, the improved performance of our models when the causal variants are both rare and common shows that the proposed models can be very useful in dissecting complex traits. We compare the performance of our methods with SKAT and SKAT-O on real neural tube defects and Hirschsprung's disease datasets. The Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests are more sensitive than SKAT and SKAT-O in the real data analysis. Our methods can be used in either gene-disease genome-wide/exome-wide association studies or candidate gene analyses.

  15. Developing Targeted Health Service Interventions Using the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model: Two Australian Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane L. Phillips

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives. This paper provides an overview of the applicability of the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model to the development of targeted nursing led chronic illness interventions. Background. Changing health care practice is a complex and dynamic process that requires consideration of social, political, economic, and organisational factors. An understanding of the characteristics of the target population, health professionals, and organizations plus identification of the determinants for change are also required. Synthesizing this data to guide the development of an effective intervention is a challenging process. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model has been used in global health care settings to guide the identification, planning, implementation, and evaluation of various health improvement initiatives. Design. Using a reflective case study approach, this paper examines the applicability of the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model to the development of targeted chronic care improvement interventions for two distinct Australian populations: a rapidly expanding and aging rural population with unmet palliative care needs and a disadvantaged urban community at higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Results. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model approach demonstrated utility across diverse health settings in a systematic planning process. In environments characterized by increasing health care needs, limited resources, and growing community expectations, adopting planning tools such as PRECEDE-PROCEED Model at a local level can facilitate the development of the most effective interventions. Relevance to Clinical Practice. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model is a strong theoretical model that guides the development of realistic nursing led interventions with the best chance of being successful in existing health care environments.

  16. Evaluation of the Extended CBD Model: A Case Study using IMS Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A large number of projects failed because of concentrating on developing new software. The Main drawbacks of new software development are more costly, and need maintenance. Reuse is solution of these problems that caused the widespread usage of object oriented (OO development. Object oriented development is the backbone of component-based development (CBD. CBD facilitates reuse of the existing components (by customizing with the new ones. Main advantages of reusable components are more reliable, saved time and reduced cost. CBD approach is different from traditional/new software development. Several models have been proposed for traditional software development such as Waterfall, Rapid Application Development (RAD, Evolutionary, Rational Unified Process (RUP and agile. Whereas the popular CBD models, for customized development, are V, Y, Umbrella and W. Almost all software development companies, both the new software and customized software have to be developed. Therefore majority of the software development companies face problem to select and implement an appropriate process model for the both kinds of developments. To address this problem, the existing RUP and CBD models do work to some extent but the authors intend to propose an extended CBD model that it equally offers its benefits for new and customized developments. The experimental data is taken from a case study to develop IP Multimedia Sub System (IMS-based examination application using iPhone to evaluate the proposed model. The results provide evidence that the extended CBD model can be equally beneficial for the development of both new and customization components for IMS-based applications.

  17. Air pollution modeling at road sides using the operational street pollution model--a case study in Hanoi, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Ngo Tho; Ketzel, Matthias; Jensen, Steen Solvang; Oanh, Nguyen Thi Kim

    2010-11-01

    In many metropolitan areas, traffic is the main source of air pollution. The high concentrations of pollutants in streets have the potential to affect human health. Therefore, estimation of air pollution at the street level is required for health impact assessment. This task has been carried out in many developed countries by a combination of air quality measurements and modeling. This study focuses on how to apply a dispersion model to cities in the developing world, where model input data and data from air quality monitoring stations are limited or of varying quality. This research uses the operational street pollution model (OSPM) developed by the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark for a case study in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. OSPM predictions from five streets were evaluated against air pollution measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and benzene (BNZ) that were available from previous studies. Hourly measurements and passive sample measurements collected over 3-week periods were compared with model outputs, applying emission factors from previous studies. In addition, so-called "backward calculations" were performed to adapt the emission factors for Hanoi conditions. The average fleet emission factors estimated can be used for emission calculations at other streets in Hanoi and in other locations in Southeast Asia with similar vehicle types. This study also emphasizes the need to further eliminate uncertainties in input data for the street-scale air pollution modeling in Vietnam, namely by providing reliable emission factors and hourly air pollution measurements of high quality.

  18. Improved workflow modelling using role activity diagram-based modelling with application to a radiology service case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Nagesh; Keast, John E; Ceglarek, Darek

    2014-10-01

    The modelling of complex workflows is an important problem-solving technique within healthcare settings. However, currently most of the workflow models use a simplified flow chart of patient flow obtained using on-site observations, group-based debates and brainstorming sessions, together with historic patient data. This paper presents a systematic and semi-automatic methodology for knowledge acquisition with detailed process representation using sequential interviews of people in the key roles involved in the service delivery process. The proposed methodology allows the modelling of roles, interactions, actions, and decisions involved in the service delivery process. This approach is based on protocol generation and analysis techniques such as: (i) initial protocol generation based on qualitative interviews of radiology staff, (ii) extraction of key features of the service delivery process, (iii) discovering the relationships among the key features extracted, and, (iv) a graphical representation of the final structured model of the service delivery process. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of a magnetic resonance (MR) scanning service-delivery process in the radiology department of a large hospital. A set of guidelines is also presented in this paper to visually analyze the resulting process model for identifying process vulnerabilities. A comparative analysis of different workflow models is also conducted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

    2016-05-01

    Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives.

  20. The Moduli Space of Heterotic Line Bundle Models: a Case Study for the Tetra-Quadric

    CERN Document Server

    Buchbinder, Evgeny I; Lukas, Andre

    2014-01-01

    It has recently been realised that polystable, holomorphic sums of line bundles over smooth Calabi-Yau three-folds provide a fertile ground for heterotic model building. Large numbers of phenomenologically promising such models have been constructed for various classes of Calabi-Yau manifolds. In this paper we focus on a case study for the tetra-quadric - a Calabi-Yau hypersurface embedded in a product of four CP1 spaces. We address the question of finiteness of the class of consistent and physically viable line bundle models constructed on this manifold. Further, for a specific semi-realistic example, we explore the embedding of the line bundle sum into the larger moduli space of non-Abelian bundles, both by means of constructing specific polystable non-Abelian bundles and by turning on VEVs in the associated low-energy theory. In this context, we explore the fate of the Higgs doublets as we move in bundle moduli space. The non-Abelian compactifications thus constructed lead to SU(5) GUT models with an addit...

  1. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  2. Long-distance aerial dispersal modelling of Culicoides biting midges: case studies of incursions into Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles, Debbie; Melville, Lorna; Weir, Richard; Davis, Steven; Bellis, Glenn; Zalucki, Myron P; Walker, Peter J; Durr, Peter A

    2014-06-19

    Previous studies investigating long-distance, wind-borne dispersal of Culicoides have utilised outbreaks of clinical disease (passive surveillance) to assess the relationship between incursion and dispersal event. In this study, species of exotic Culicoides and isolates of novel bluetongue viruses, collected as part of an active arbovirus surveillance program, were used for the first time to assess dispersal into an endemic region. A plausible dispersal event was determined for five of the six cases examined. These include exotic Culicoides specimens for which a possible dispersal event was identified within the range of two days--three weeks prior to their collection and novel bluetongue viruses for which a dispersal event was identified between one week and two months prior to their detection in cattle. The source location varied, but ranged from Lombok, in eastern Indonesia, to Timor-Leste and southern Papua New Guinea. Where bluetongue virus is endemic, the concurrent use of an atmospheric dispersal model alongside existing arbovirus and Culicoides surveillance may help guide the strategic use of limited surveillance resources as well as contribute to continued model validation and refinement. Further, the value of active surveillance systems in evaluating models for long-distance dispersal is highlighted, particularly in endemic regions where knowledge of background virus and vector status is beneficial.

  3. Preface to the special issue: “Comparing Educational Modelling Languages on the 'Planet Game' Case Study"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloep, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Sloep, P. B. (2008). Preface to the special issue: "Comparing Educational Modelling Languages on the 'Planet Game' Case Study" [Electronic Version]. Journal of Interactive Media in Education, 2008 from http://jime.open.ac.uk/2008/17/.

  4. Hydraulic modelling for flood mapping and prevention: the case study of Cerfone River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Francesco, Silvia; Venturi, Sara; Manciola, Piergiorgio

    2016-04-01

    The research focuses on the hydraulic risk evaluation and danger estimation for different extreme flood events, in order to correctly implement mitigation measures in an anthropized basin. The Cerfone River (Tuscany, Italy), due to the several floods that have affected the neighbouring villages in recent years, is selected as case of study. A finite volume numerical model that solves the shallow water equations all over the computational domain, was used to simulate the unsteady evolution of the maximum extent of flooded areas for different scenarios. The one - dimensional approach (still widespread in engineering projects) can be inaccurate in complex flows, which are often two or three dimensional and sometimes does not manage to capture the flood spatial extents in terms of flow depth and velocity. The use of a two-dimensional numerical model seems to be the suitable instrument in terms of computational efficiency and adequacy of results. In fact it overcomes the limits of a one-dimensional modeling in terms of prediction of hydraulic variables with a less computational effort respect to a full 3d model. An accurate modeling of the river basin leads to the evaluation of the present hydraulic risk. Structural and non- structural measures are then studied, simulated and compared in order to define the optimal risk reduction plan for the area of study. At this aim, different flooding scenarios were simulated through the 2D mathematical model: i) existing state of the river and floodplain areas; ii) design of a levee to protect the most vulnerable populated areas against the flooding risk; iii) use of off - stream detention basins that strongly amplify the lamination capacity of floodplains. All these scenarios were simulated for different return periods: 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. The inputs of the hydraulic models are obtained in accordance with the legislative requirement of Tuscany Region; in particular discharge hydrographs are evaluate through the ALTo

  5. Case study of modeled aerosol optical properties during the SAFARI 2000 campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmanoski, Maja; Box, Michael A; Schmid, Beat; Russell, Philip B; Redemann, Jens

    2007-08-01

    We present modeled aerosol optical properties (single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, and lidar ratio) in two layers with different aerosol loadings and particle sizes, observed during the Southern African Regional Science Initiative 2,000 (SAFARI 2,000) campaign. The optical properties were calculated from aerosol size distributions retrieved from aerosol layer optical thickness spectra, measured using the NASA Ames airborne tracking 14-channel sunphotometer (AATS-14) and the refractive index based on the available information on aerosol chemical composition. The study focuses on sensitivity of modeled optical properties in the 0.3-1.5 microm wavelength range to assumptions regarding the mixing scenario. We considered two models for the mixture of absorbing and nonabsorbing aerosol components commonly used to model optical properties of biomass burning aerosol: a layered sphere with absorbing core and nonabsorbing shell and the Maxwell-Garnett effective medium model. In addition, comparisons of modeled optical properties with the measurements are discussed. We also estimated the radiative effect of the difference in aerosol absorption implied by the large difference between the single scattering albedo values (approximately 0.1 at midvisible wavelengths) obtained from different measurement methods for the case with a high amount of biomass burning particles. For that purpose, the volume fraction of black carbon was varied to obtain a range of single scattering albedo values (0.81-0.91 at lambda=0.50 microm). The difference in absorption resulted in a significant difference in the instantaneous radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and can result in a change of the sign of the aerosol forcing at TOA from negative to positive.

  6. Elaborating the assimilation model: Introduction to a special section on case studies of setbacks within sessions and therapeutic collaboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro Gabalda, Isabel; Stiles, William B

    2016-11-01

    This article introduces a Special Section of case studies that focus on therapeutic collaboration and setbacks in the process of assimilation with the aim of contributing to the evolution of the assimilation model of therapeutic change. The first study examined setbacks in two depression cases (a good vs. a poor outcome) treated with emotion-focused therapy. The second article traced how therapist activities and positions toward internal voices were associated with setbacks in a case treated with linguistic therapy of evaluation. The third article studied contributions of therapeutic collaboration for both advances and setbacks in assimilation in two contrasting cases treated with emotion-focused therapy. The fourth and final article analyzed the therapeutic collaboration in episodes of ambivalence in two cases of narrative therapy (one good outcome, one poor outcome) reflecting on the implications for the assimilation model's perspective on the therapeutic relationship. This Introduction concludes by offering some suggestions for theory-building within the assimilation model.

  7. Density of states of continuous and discrete spin models: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardini, Cesare; Nerattini, Rachele; Casetti, Lapo

    2012-02-01

    A relation between O(n) lattice spin models and Ising models defined on the same lattice was recently put forward (Casetti et al 2011 Phys. Rev. Lett. 106 057208). Such a relation, inspired by an energy landscape analysis, implies that the density of states of an O(n) spin model on a lattice can be effectively approximated, at least close to the phase transition, in terms of the density of states of an Ising model defined on the same lattice and with the same interactions. In this paper we show that such a relation exactly holds, albeit in a slightly modified form, in the special cases of the mean-field XY model and the one-dimensional XY model. We also discuss the possible consequences of this result for the general case.

  8. Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.

    2015-12-01

    RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7

  9. Optimal Model of Distributed Energy System by Using GAMS and CaseStudy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yongwen; Gao, Weijun; Ruan, Yingjun; Xuan, Ji; Zhou, Nan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-11-30

    This paper adopts optimal model which used GAMS to developmethods and tools for conducting an integrated assessment of DER system.Three cases were studied. Energy-saving, environmental and economicefficiency were evaluated. The results of the simulation can besummarized as follows: 1) For the current system, optimal operating timeis about 4,132 hours per year, and from 8 am to 22 pm everyday. 2) It iseconomical when electricity price increases or gas price decreases. 3)According to the load function of system, energy-saving, environmentaland economic efficiency will have amaximum value at optimal operatingtime. 4) Compared with exhaust heat efficiency, power generationefficiency has more influence to the economic efficiency and CO2reduction when the total efficiency is fixed.

  10. Linking phosphorus export and hydrologic modeling: a case study in Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroselli, Andrea; Leone, Antonio; Ripa, Maria Nicolina; Recanatesi, Fabio

    2014-11-01

    Soil erosion is an open topic, not only because soil fertility is lost, but also because nutrients are spilled into water bodies, thereby causing pollution. Research carried out in this field has amply described this process, but the interaction between these factors is complex and experimental research is needed to understand the production of loads of nutrients for different land uses. This paper describes a long-term monitoring case study using high-resolution rainfall data and runoff samples, carried out in the Lake Vico basin (Central Italy) to determine the phosphorus (P) export during erosive rainfall events. State of the art GIS-based basin characterization and advanced rainfall-runoff models are employed in order to describe the relationship between nutrient export and rainfall or runoff time distribution. Results show that the phosphorus export is strongly related to such time distributions, and less to the cumulative amount of rainfall or runoff.

  11. Offering solutions of sustainable urban tourism by the use of SWOT model, case study Isfahan city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Roustazadeh Sheikh Yousefi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Tourism phenomenon has been spread world wildtoday. It's because of technological innovation development and overallcapitalism expansion in current age. Tourism in this situation has caused humanbeing relocation and mobility and in worldwide level, has created concept ofrelationship with other cultures in different locations, as socio-geographicalphenomenon. In this case cities includes important scientific, recreational,sport, shrine, historical, culture, medical, centers, etc., in addition to thiscases, also utilities natural attraction, etc., can play vole as touristic cityin the center of the country. in this research discursive- analysis method hasbeen used for collecting data and proceed to identify tourism potentials ,abilities, limitations and inadequacy of Isfahan by documental and librarydeliberations and field studies, SWOT model has been used for analyzing data.Then, offering solutions for sustainable urban development and eventuallymovement toward tourism development have been emphasized on.

  12. Hybrid supply chain model for material requirement planning under financial constraints: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curci, Vita; Dassisti, Michele; Josefa, Mula Bru; Manuel, Díaz Madroñero

    2014-10-01

    Supply chain model (SCM) are potentially capable to integrate different aspects in supporting decision making for enterprise management tasks. The aim of the paper is to propose an hybrid mathematical programming model for optimization of production requirements resources planning. The preliminary model was conceived bottom-up from a real industrial case analysed oriented to maximize cash flow. Despite the intense computational effort required to converge to a solution, optimisation done brought good result in solving the objective function.

  13. Case studies of fifth-grade student modeling in science through programming: Comparison of modeling practices and conversations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louca, Loucas

    This is a descriptive case study investigating the use of two computer-based programming environments (CPEs), MicroWorlds(TM) (MW) and Stagecast Creator(TM) (SC), as modeling tools for collaborative fifth grade science learning. In this study I investigated how CPEs might support fifth grade student work and inquiry in science. There is a longstanding awareness of the need to help students learn about models and modeling in science, and CPEs are promising tools for this. A computer program can be a model of a physical system, and modeling through programming may make the process more tangible: Programming involves making decisions and assumptions; the code is used to express ideas; running the program shows the implications of those ideas. In this study I have analyzed and compared students' activities and conversations in two after-school clubs, one working with MW and the other with SC. The findings confirm the promise of CPEs as tools for teaching practices of modeling and science, and they suggest advantages and disadvantages to that purpose of particular aspects of CPE designs. MW is an open-ended, textual CPE that uses procedural programming. MW students focused on breaking down phenomena into small programmable pieces, which is useful for scientific modeling. Developing their programs, the students focused on writing, testing and debugging code, which are also useful for scientific modeling. SC is a non-linear, object-oriented CPE that uses visual program language. SC students saw their work as creating games. They were focused on the overall story which they then translated it into SC rules, which was in conflict with SC's object-oriented interface. However, telling the story of individual causal agents was useful for scientific modeling. Programming in SC was easier, whereas reading code in MW was more tangible. The latter helped MW students to use the code as the representation of the phenomenon rather than merely as a tool for creating a simulation. The

  14. Modelling the black death. A historical case study and implications for the epidemiology of bubonic plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monecke, Stefan; Monecke, Hannelore; Monecke, Jochen

    2009-12-01

    We analysed a plague outbreak in the mining town of Freiberg in Saxony which started in May 1613 and ended in February 1614. This epidemic was selected for study because of the high quality of contemporary sources. It was possible to identify 1400 individual victims meaning that more than 10% of the population of the city perished. The outbreak was modelled by 9 differential equations describing flea, rat, and human populations. This resulted in a close fit to the historical records of this outbreak. An interesting implication of the model is that the introduction of even a small number of immune rats into an otherwise unchanged setting results in an abortive outbreak with very few human victims. Hence, the percentage of immune rats directly influences the magnitude of a human epidemic by diverting search activities of the fleas. Thus, we conclude that the spread of Rattus norvegicus, which might acquire partial herd immunity by exposure to soil- or water-borne Yersinia species due to its preference for wet habitats, contributed to the disappearance of Black Death epidemics from Europe in the 18th century. In order to prove whether or not the parameter values obtained by fitting a given outbreak are also applicable to other cases, we modelled the plague outbreak in Bombay 1905/06 using the same parameter values except for the number of humans as well as of immune and susceptible rats.

  15. Modelling high resolution Echelle spectrographs for calibrations: Hanle Echelle spectrograph, a case study

    CERN Document Server

    Chanumolu, Anantha; Thirupathi, Sivarani

    2015-01-01

    We present a modelling scheme that predicts the centroids of spectral line features for a high resolution Echelle spectrograph to a high accuracy. Towards this, a computing scheme is used, whereby any astronomical spectrograph can be modelled and controlled without recourse to a ray tracing program. The computations are based on paraxial ray trace and exact corrections added for certain surface types and Buchdahl aberration coefficients for complex modules. The resultant chain of paraxial ray traces and corrections for all relevant components is used to calculate the location of any spectral line on the detector under all normal operating conditions with a high degree of certainty. This will allow a semi-autonomous control using simple in-house, programming modules. The scheme is simple enough to be implemented even in a spreadsheet or in any scripting language. Such a model along with an optimization routine can represent the real time behaviour of the instrument. We present here a case study for Hanle Echel...

  16. Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonstra, Philip S; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Nilbert, Mef; Moreno, Victor; Gruber, Stephen B

    2011-12-01

    Genetic anticipation, described by earlier age of onset (AOO) and more aggressive symptoms in successive generations, is a phenomenon noted in certain hereditary diseases. Its extent may vary between families and/or between mutation subtypes known to be associated with the disease phenotype. In this article, we posit a Bayesian approach to infer genetic anticipation under flexible random effects models for censored data that capture the effect of successive generations on AOO. Primary interest lies in the random effects. Misspecifying the distribution of random effects may result in incorrect inferential conclusions. We compare the fit of four-candidate random effects distributions via Bayesian model fit diagnostics. A related statistical issue here is isolating the confounding effect of changes in secular trends, screening, and medical practices that may affect time to disease detection across birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known to cause hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, also called Lynch syndrome (LS). We find evidence for a decrease in AOO between generations in this article. Our model predicts family-level anticipation effects that are potentially useful in genetic counseling clinics for high-risk families.

  17. Dynamics of Postcombustion CO2 Capture Plants: Modeling, Validation, and Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Haar, Adam; Trapp, Carsten; Wellner, Kai; de Kler, Robert; Schmitz, Gerhard; Colonna, Piero

    2017-02-22

    The capture of CO2 from power plant flue gases provides an opportunity to mitigate emissions that are harmful to the global climate. While the process of CO2 capture using an aqueous amine solution is well-known from experience in other technical sectors (e.g., acid gas removal in the gas processing industry), its operation combined with a power plant still needs investigation because in this case, the interaction with power plants that are increasingly operated dynamically poses control challenges. This article presents the dynamic modeling of CO2 capture plants followed by a detailed validation using transient measurements recorded from the pilot plant operated at the Maasvlakte power station in the Netherlands. The model predictions are in good agreement with the experimental data related to the transient changes of the main process variables such as flow rate, CO2 concentrations, temperatures, and solvent loading. The validated model was used to study the effects of fast power plant transients on the capture plant operation. A relevant result of this work is that an integrated CO2 capture plant might enable more dynamic operation of retrofitted fossil fuel power plants because the large amount of steam needed by the capture process can be diverted rapidly to and from the power plant.

  18. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, Lynn M [Scripps/UCSD; Lubin, Dan [Scripps/UCSD

    2013-06-18

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the

  19. Effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling. A case study of a mountainous catchment in Southern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjørn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Johansen, Stian Solvang; Petersen-Øverleir, Asgeir; Kolberg, Sjur

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we explore the effect of uncertainty and poor observation quality on hydrological model calibration and predictions. The Osali catchment in Western Norway was selected as case study and an elevation distributed HBV-model was used. We systematically evaluated the effect of accounting for uncertainty in parameters, precipitation input, temperature input and streamflow observations. For precipitation and temperature we accounted for the interpolation uncertainty, and for streamflow we accounted for rating curve uncertainty. Further, the effects of poorer quality of precipitation input and streamflow observations were explored. Less information about precipitation was obtained by excluding the nearest precipitation station from the analysis, while reduced information about the streamflow was obtained by omitting the highest and lowest streamflow observations when estimating the rating curve. The results showed that including uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature inputs has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Less information in precipitation input resulted in a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions, giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using streamflow observations based on different rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for rating curves giving smoother streamflow observations. Less information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores by giving both better and worse scores.

  20. Anticipation Models for On-Line Control in Steel Industry: Methodologies and Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briano, Enrico; Caballini, Claudia; Revetria, Roberto; Testa, Alessandro; De Leo, Marco; Belgrano, Franco; Bertolotto, Alessandro

    2010-11-01

    , the Authors present the conclusions of this work, with a particular attention to the savings that the simulation can bring to this real system, explaining the results of the case study to which it was applied, and the possible future developments of this research are discussed. This model can anyway be applied to other realities than the one exemplified in this paper.

  1. Modelling the effect of buried valleys on groundwater flow: case study in Ventspils vicinity, Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delina, Aija; Popovs, Konrads; Bikse, Janis; Retike, Inga; Babre, Alise; Kalvane, Gunta

    2015-04-01

    Buried subglacial valleys are widely distributed in glaciated regions and they can have great influence on groundwater flow and hence on groundwater resources. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of the buried valleys on groundwater flow in a confined aquifer (Middle Devonian Eifelian stage Arukila aquifer, D2ar) applying numerical modelling. The study area is located at vicinity of Ventspils Town, near wellfield Ogsils where number of the buried valleys with different depth and filling material are present. Area is located close to the Baltic Sea at Piejūra lowland Rinda plain and regional groundwater flow is towards sea. Territory is covered by thin layer of Quaternary sediments in thicknesses of 10 to 20 meters although Prequaternary sediments are exposed at some places. Buried valleys are characterized as narrow, elongated and deep formations that is be filled with various, mainly Pleistocene glacigene sediments - either till loam of different ages or sand and gravel or interbedding of both above mentioned. The filling material of the valleys influences groundwater flow in the confined aquifers which is intercepted by the valleys. It is supposed that glacial till loam filled valleys serves as a barrier to groundwater flow and as a recharge conduit when filled with sand and gravel deposits. Numerical model was built within MOSYS modelling system (Virbulis et al. 2012) using finite element method in order to investigate buried valley influence on groundwater flow in the study area. Several conceptual models were tested in numerical model depending on buried valley filling material: sand and gravel, till loam or mixture of them. Groundwater flow paths and travel times were studied. Results suggested that valley filled with glacial till is acting as barrier and it causes sharp drop of piezometric head and downward flow. Valley filled with sand and gravel have almost no effect on piezometric head distribution, however it this case buried valleys

  2. A Case Study of Employing A Single Server Nonpreemptive Priority Queuing Model at ATM Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Furquan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a case study of employing a single server nonpreemptivepriorityqueuing model [1]at ATM machine which originally operates on M/M/1 model. In this study we have taken two priority classes of people in following order:- .Priority class 1- woman .Priority class 2- man Sometimea long queue is formed at ATMmachine (single serverbut the bank management don’t have enough money to invest on installing new ATM machine.In this situation we want to apply single server nonpreemptive priority queuing model.The security guard at the ATM will divide the customers in two category and arrange the customers in the above said priority order Thuspriority class 1 people willreceive theatm service ahead of priority class 2 people.This will reduce the waiting time of priority class 1 people. Of course by doing this the waiting time of priority class 2will increase. This is ok as long as the increment in waiting time of priority class2 people is reasonable and within the tolerable limitof priority class 2people.This will be true when percentage of priority class 1 people is relatively less as compared to priority class 2 people To know the attitude and tolerable limit of priority class 2 people towards the single server non preemtive priority model a sample survey has been done on the incomingpriority class 2 population at the atm machine.Against this background, the queuing process is employed with emphasis to Poisson distribution to assess the waiting time. The data for this study was collected from primary source and is limited to ATM service point of state bank of India located at Ramesh chowk, Aurangabad, bihar, India.. The assistance of three colleague was sought in collecting the data. The Interarrival time and service time data was collected during busy working hours (i.e. 10.30am to 4:00pm during the first 60 days. A sample survey was done to know the attitude and tolerable limit of priority class 2people towards the single server

  3. Air Pollution Modeling at Road Sides Using the Operational Street Pollution Model-A Case Study in Hanoi, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hung, Ngo Tho; Ketzel, Matthias; Jensen, Steen Solvang

    2010-01-01

    In many metropolitan areas, traffic is the main source of air pollution. The high concentrations of pollutants in streets have the potential to affect human health. Therefore, estimation of air pollution at the street level is required for health impact assessment. This task has been carried out...... the operational street pollution model (OSPM) developed by the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark for a case study in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. OSPM predictions from five streets were evaluated against air pollution measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide...... the emission factors for Hanoi conditions. The average fleet emission factors estimated can be used for emission calculations at other streets in Hanoi and in other locations in Southeast Asia with similar vehicle types. This study also emphasizes the need to further eliminate uncertainties in input data...

  4. Hydrodynamic modelling and global datasets: Flow connectivity and SRTM data, a Bangkok case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. B.; Michaelides, K.

    2012-04-01

    The rise in the global interconnected manufacturing supply chains requires an understanding and consistent quantification of flood risk at a global scale. Flood risk is often better quantified (or at least more precisely defined) in regions where there has been an investment in comprehensive topographical data collection such as LiDAR coupled with detailed hydrodynamic modelling. Yet in regions where these data and modelling are unavailable, the implications of flooding and the knock on effects for global industries can be dramatic, as evidenced by the recent floods in Bangkok, Thailand. There is a growing momentum in terms of global modelling initiatives to address this lack of a consistent understanding of flood risk and they will rely heavily on the application of available global datasets relevant to hydrodynamic modelling, such as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and its derivatives. These global datasets bring opportunities to apply consistent methodologies on an automated basis in all regions, while the use of coarser scale datasets also brings many challenges such as sub-grid process representation and downscaled hydrology data from global climate models. There are significant opportunities for hydrological science in helping define new, realistic and physically based methodologies that can be applied globally as well as the possibility of gaining new insights into flood risk through analysis of the many large datasets that will be derived from this work. We use Bangkok as a case study to explore some of the issues related to using these available global datasets for hydrodynamic modelling, with particular focus on using SRTM data to represent topography. Research has shown that flow connectivity on the floodplain is an important component in the dynamics of flood flows on to and off the floodplain, and indeed within different areas of the floodplain. A lack of representation of flow connectivity, often due to data resolution limitations, means

  5. A Study of Time Series Model for Predicting Jute Yarn Demand: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Karmaker

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In today’s competitive environment, predicting sales for upcoming periods at right quantity is very crucial for ensuring product availability as well as improving customer satisfaction. This paper develops a model to identify the most appropriate method for prediction based on the least values of forecasting errors. Necessary sales data of jute yarn were collected from a jute product manufacturer industry in Bangladesh, namely, Akij Jute Mills, Akij Group Ltd., in Noapara, Jessore. Time series plot of demand data indicates that demand fluctuates over the period of time. In this paper, eight different forecasting techniques including simple moving average, single exponential smoothing, trend analysis, Winters method, and Holt’s method were performed by statistical technique using Minitab 17 software. Performance of all methods was evaluated on the basis of forecasting accuracy and the analysis shows that Winters additive model gives the best performance in terms of lowest error determinants. This work can be a guide for Bangladeshi manufacturers as well as other researchers to identify the most suitable forecasting technique for their industry.

  6. Case Study: Teaching Nature of Science through Scientific Models--The Geocentric vs. Heliocentric Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Matthew; Rogers, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In the nonmajor science classroom, case studies--when used as learning tools--should help students build the necessary framework to understand the nature of science. For most students, the nonmajor science course (in this case, Astronomy 101) may be the last time that they interact with science in a formal learning setting. A National Science…

  7. Status study of knowledge management in universities and to provide a suitable model (Case Study: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangir, Mustafa; Asadi, M. Mahdi

    2010-05-01

    During the past two decades to increase the volume of information and knowledge in organizations and the necessity of effective use of it in Organizational decisions is led to the emerging phenomenon of knowledge management. Knowledge management, including all the ways the organization manage their knowledge assets that include how collection, storage, transfer, deployment, update and create knowledge. Universities that type of knowledge based organizations are important sources of knowledge and therefore can be considered as strategic in universities and higher education centers of knowledge management will be more important. In this research The status of knowledge management in universities and a case study of Mashhad University are checked are the problems and challenges are identified and finally as for the features, requirements and conditions to implement a model for universities and deployment of knowledge management is presented in it.Therefore, basic research problem is: the status of knowledge management in universities and the case Mashhad University is how and which model for implementation and deployment of knowledge management is recommended? Importance and necessity of research topicare: Knowledge management experts in the emergence of knowledge management consider four major factors:1) passing the material tangible assets dominated era to the domination of capital in non-palpable, nonetheless organizations. 2) increase the extraordinary volume of information, the electronic storage and increased access to information 3) risk to the story of institutional knowledge due to retirement or exit from the crew 4) become more specialized activities in the organization 5) the emergence of knowledge based organizations and incidence of the most important capital is its knowledge. Knowledge management solutions focus on the entire system, including organization, human resources and technology in the take-the most important tools for solving problems and

  8. DEPENDABLE PRIVACY REQUIREMENTS BY AGILE MODELED LAYERED SECURITY ARCHITECTURES – WEB SERVICES CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Upendra Kumar

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Software Engineering covers the definition of processes, techniques and models suitable for its environment to guarantee quality of results. An important design artifact in any software development project is the Software Architecture. Software Architecture’s important part is the set of architectural design rules. A primary goal of the architecture is to capture the architecture design decisions. An important part of these design decisions consists of architectural design rules In an MDA (Model-Driven Architecture context, the design of the system architecture is captured in the models of the system. MDA is known to be layered approach for modeling the architectural design rules and uses design patterns to improve the quality of software system. And to include the security to the software system, security patterns are introduced that offer security at the architectural level. More over, agile software development methods are used to build secure systems. There are different methods defined in agile development as extreme programming (XP, scrum, feature driven development (FDD, test driven development (TDD, etc. Agile processing is includes the phases as agile analysis, agile design and agile testing. These phases are defined in layers of MDA to provide security at the modeling level which ensures that security at the system architecture stage will improve the requirements for that system. Agile modeled Layered Security Architectures increase the dependability of the architecture in terms of privacy requirements. We validate this with a case study of dependability of privacy of Web Services Security Architectures, which helps for secure service oriented security architecture. In this paper the major part is given to model architectural design rules using MDA so that architects and developers are responsible to automatic enforcement on the detailed design and easy to understand and use by both of them. This MDA approach is implemented in use of

  9. Modeling of the travelling ionospheric disturbances. Case study of ASG-EUPOS network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanimonskiy, Yevgen M.; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Yampolski, Yuri M.

    2016-04-01

    Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) - this is quite established term for a relatively stable spatial structures, which are characterized by a certain distribution of the electron concentration and are moved as a whole, especially in the horizontal direction. In most cases TIDs are associated with atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) and are expected to be a quasi-plane wave. Effective modern method of studying TIDs is the sounding of ionosphere by GNSS signals received by the dense regional network. Method of the orthogonal projection of the ionosphere electronic content variations for the total electron content (TEC) mapping allows visualizing the ionospheric irregularities (Zanimonskiy et. al. 2016). Such maps can be used to detect TIDs, their modeling and determination of model parameters, such as: direction and speed of movement, spatial period and the height of the ionosphere layer, in which TIDs are localized. In this paper traveling ionospheric disturbances detected over Poland are presented for the day of St. Patrick (March 2015). Into the calculation process observational data from dense regional network deployed in Poland (ASG-EUPOS) were used. Estimated TIDs were characterized by relative frequent occurrence, up to several times a day, and were observed from a few tens of minutes to hour. The direction of detected TIDs movement in most cases was opposite to the horizontal wind calculated by Horizontal Wind Model 07 at the height of TID. Furthermore, the amplitudes of estimated TEC variations during the TID passage were proportional to the background TEC values and consequently to the higher level of the geomagnetic activity. The extremely high TEC variations and speed of TIDs were registered during the severe geomagnetic storm are discussed in this paper. Further works are carried out to the investigation of quantitative relation between the parameters of TIDs and horizontal winds, as well as to accumulation of statistics and characteristics of TIDs

  10. The composite supply chain efficiency model: A case study of the Sishen-Saldanha supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila L. Goedhals-Gerber

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As South Africa strives to be a major force in global markets, it is essential that South African supply chains achieve and maintain a competitive advantage. One approach to achieving this is to ensure that South African supply chains maximise their levels of efficiency. Consequently, the efficiency levels of South Africa’s supply chains must be evaluated. The objective of this article is to propose a model that can assist South African industries in becoming internationally competitive by providing them with a tool for evaluating their levels of efficiency both as individual firms and as a component in an overall supply chain. The Composite Supply Chain Efficiency Model (CSCEM was developed to measure supply chain efficiency across supply chains using variables identified as problem areas experienced by South African supply chains. The CSCEM is tested in this article using the Sishen-Saldanda iron ore supply chain as a case study. The results indicate that all three links or nodes along the Sishen-Saldanha iron ore supply chain performed well. The average efficiency of the rail leg was 97.34%, while the average efficiency of the mine and the port were 97% and 95.44%, respectively. The results also show that the CSCEM can be used by South African firms to measure their levels of supply chain efficiency. This article concludes with the benefits of the CSCEM.

  11. Facilitative Project Management: Constructing A Model For Integrated Change Implementation By Utilizing Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica Hodgson

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Change management theory is extensive, and organisations constantly adapt to and embrace change. In post-apartheid South Africa we are building a racially integrated business environment and society, and leverage its competitive re-entry into the world business arena. Research to date has found that the majority of change initiatives fail due to resistance caused by poor conceptualisation and planning, and the lack of proper integration of the people and business dimensions of change. The model to implement a successful change program will be designed using a combination of readily available skills and techniques. Its development and testing will take place within the context of three case studies. OpsommingDie teorie van veranderingsbestuur is omvattend. Organisasies moet op konstante wyse daarby aanpas en dit integreer. In Post-Apartheid Suid-Afrika bou ons tans ’n ras geïntegreerde besigheidsomgewing en gemeenskap, en benut dit maksimaal in ons toetrede tot die mededingende wêreld besigheidsarena. Huidige navorsing het bevind dat die meeste veranderingsinitiatiewe faal weens weerstand teen verandering wat deur swak konseptualisering en beplanning, en ’n gebrek aan behoorlike integrering van mense en die besigheidsdimensies van verandering veroorsaak is. Die model om ’n suksesvolle veranderingsprogram te implementeer, sal ontwerp word met geredelik beskikbare vaardighede en tegnieke. Die ontwikkeling en toetsing sal binne die konteks van drie gevallestudies plaasvind.

  12. Comparative environmental assessment of wood transport models: a case study of a Swedish pulp mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Berg, Staffan; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, Ma Teresa

    2009-05-15

    Wood transportation from forest landing to forest-based industries uses large amounts of energy. In the case of Sweden, where forest operations are highly and efficiently mechanized, this stage consumes more fossil fuels than other elements of the wood supply chain (such as silviculture and logging operations). This paper intends to compare the environmental burdens associated to different wood transport models considering a Swedish pulp mill as a case study by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as an analytical tool. Five scenarios (the current one and four alternative reliable scenarios) were proposed and analysed taking into account two variables. On the one hand, the influence of imported pulpwood share from Baltic countries and on the other hand, the use of rail transportation for wood transport. In particular, the following impact categories were assessed: Eutrophication, Global Warming, Photochemical Oxidant Formation, Acidification and Fossil fuel extraction. The environmental results indicate that transport alternatives including electric and diesel trains, as well as the reduction in Baltic wood imports should present better environmental performance than the current scenario in terms of all the impact categories under study. Remarkable differences were identified with regard to energy requirements. This divergence is related to different long-distance transport strategies (lorry, boat and/or train) as well as the relative import of wood selected. The combination of lorry and train in wood transportation from Southern Sweden plus the reduction of wood imports from 25% to 15% seems to be more favourable from an environmental perspective. The results obtained allow forecasting the importance of the wood transport strategy in the wood supply chain in LCA of forest products and the influence of energy requirements in the results.

  13. A case study testing the cavity mode model of the magnetosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Sarafopoulos

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on a case study we test the cavity mode model of the magnetosphere, looking for eigenfrequencies via multi-satellite and multi-instrument measurements. Geotail and ACE provide information on the interplanetary medium that dictates the input parameters of the system; the four Cluster satellites monitor the magnetopause surface waves; the POLAR (L=9.4 and LANL 97A (L=6.6 satellites reveal two in-situ monochromatic field line resonances (FLRs with T=6 and 2.5 min, respectively; and the IMAGE ground magnetometers demonstrate latitude dependent delays in signature arrival times, as inferred by Sarafopoulos (2004b. Similar dispersive structures showing systematic delays are also extensively scrutinized by Sarafopoulos (2005 and interpreted as tightly associated with the so-called pseudo-FLRs, which show almost the same observational characteristics with an authentic FLR. In particular for this episode, successive solar wind pressure pulses produce recurring ionosphere twin vortex Hall currents which are identified on the ground as pseudo-FLRs. The BJN ground magnetometer records the pseudo-FLR (alike with the other IMAGE station responses associated with an intense power spectral density ranging from 8 to 12 min and, in addition, two discrete resonant lines with T=3.5 and 7 min. In this case study, even though the magnetosphere is evidently affected by a broad-band compressional wave originated upstream of the bow shock, nevertheless, we do not identify any cavity mode oscillation within the magnetosphere. We fail, also, to identify any of the cavity mode frequencies proposed by Samson (1992.

    Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetosphereionosphere interactions; Solar wind-magnetosphere interactions; MHD waves and instabilities

  14. Kinetic modelling in food science : a case study on chlorophyll degradation in olives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekel, van M.A.J.S.

    2000-01-01

    This paper critically reviews the use of kinetics in modelling (bio)chemical changes in foods. Multiresponse modelling (taking more reactants and products of the reaction under study into consideration in the modelling process) is advocated as opposed to uniresponse modelling (in which only one

  15. Modeling the population dynamics and community impacts of Ambystoma tigrinum: A case study of phenotype plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Maeve L; Wallace, Dorothy; Whiteman, Howard H; Rheingold, Evan T; Dunham, Ann M; Prosper, Olivia; Chen, Michelle; Hu-Wang, Eileen

    2017-06-01

    Phenotypic plasticity is the ability of an organism to change its phenotype in response to changes in the environment. General mathematical descriptions of the phenomenon rely on an abstract measure of "viability" that, in this study, is instantiated in the case of the Tiger Salamander, Ambystoma tigrinum. This organism has a point in its development when, upon maturing, it may take two very different forms. One is a terrestrial salamander (metamorph)that visits ponds to reproduce and eat, while the other is an aquatic form (paedomorph) that remains in the pond to breed and which consumes a variety of prey including its own offspring. A seven dimensional nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations is developed, incorporating small (Z) and large (B) invertebrates, Ambystoma young of the year (Y), juveniles (J), terrestrial metamorphs (A) and aquatic paedomorphs (P). One parameter in the model controls the proportion of juveniles maturing into A versus P. Solutions are shown to remain non-negative. Every effort was made to justify parameters biologically through studies reported in the literature. A sensitivity analysis and equilibrium analysis of model parameters demonstrate that morphological choice is critical to the overall composition of the Ambystoma population. Various population viability measures were used to select optimal percentages of juveniles maturing into metamorphs, with optimal choices differing considerably depending on the viability measure. The model suggests that the criteria for viability for this organism vary, both from location to location and also in time. Thus, optimal responses change with spatiotemporal variation, which is consistent with other phenotypically plastic systems. Two competing hypotheses for the conditions under which metamorphosis occurs are examined in light of the model and data from an Ambystoma tigrinum population at Mexican Cut, Colorado. The model clearly supports one of these over the other for this data set

  16. Comparing Simulation Results with Traditional PRA Model on a Boiling Water Reactor Station Blackout Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma; Diego Mandelli; Curtis Smith

    2011-07-01

    A previous study used RELAP and RAVEN to conduct a boiling water reactor station black-out (SBO) case study in a simulation based environment to show the capabilities of the risk-informed safety margin characterization methodology. This report compares the RELAP/RAVEN simulation results with traditional PRA model results. The RELAP/RAVEN simulation run results were reviewed for their input parameters and output results. The input parameters for each simulation run include various timing information such as diesel generator or offsite power recovery time, Safety Relief Valve stuck open time, High Pressure Core Injection or Reactor Core Isolation Cooling fail to run time, extended core cooling operation time, depressurization delay time, and firewater injection time. The output results include the maximum fuel clad temperature, the outcome, and the simulation end time. A traditional SBO PRA model in this report contains four event trees that are linked together with the transferring feature in SAPHIRE software. Unlike the usual Level 1 PRA quantification process in which only core damage sequences are quantified, this report quantifies all SBO sequences, whether they are core damage sequences or success (i.e., non core damage) sequences, in order to provide a full comparison with the simulation results. Three different approaches were used to solve event tree top events and quantify the SBO sequences: “W” process flag, default process flag without proper adjustment, and default process flag with adjustment to account for the success branch probabilities. Without post-processing, the first two approaches yield incorrect results with a total conditional probability greater than 1.0. The last approach accounts for the success branch probabilities and provides correct conditional sequence probabilities that are to be used for comparison. To better compare the results from the PRA model and the simulation runs, a simplified SBO event tree was developed with only four

  17. The importance of magnetic methods for soil mapping and process modelling. Case study in Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshov, Oleksandr; Pereira, Paulo; Kruglov, Oleksandr; Sukhorada, Anatoliy

    2016-04-01

    The correct planning of agriculture areas is fundamental for a sustainable future in Ukraine. After the recent political problems in Ukraine, new challenges emerged regarding sustainability questions. At the same time the soil mapping and modelling are intensively developing all over the world (Pereira et al., 2015; Brevik et al., in press). Magnetic susceptibility (MS) methods are low cost and accurate for the developing maps of agricultural areas, fundamental for Ukrain's economy.This allow to colleact a great amount of soil data, usefull for a better understading of the spatial distribution of soil properties. Recently, this method have been applied in other works in Ukraine and elsewhere (Jordanova et al., 2011; Menshov et al., 2015). The objective of this work is to study the spatial distribution of MS and humus content on the topsoils (0-5 cm) in two different areas. The first is located in Poltava region and the second in Kharkiv region. The results showed that MS depends of soil type, topography and anthropogenic influence. For the interpretation of MS spatial distribution in top soil we consider the frequency and time after the last tillage, tilth depth, fertilizing, and the puddling regarding the vehicle model. On average the soil MS of the top soil of these two cases is about 30-70×10-8 m3/kg. In Poltava region not disturbed soil has on average MS values of 40-50×10-8 m3/kg, for Kharkiv region 50-60×10-8 m3/kg. The tilled soil of Poltava region has on average an MS of 60×10-8 m3/kg, and 70×10-8 m3/kg in Kharkiv region. MS is higher in non-tilled soils than in the tilled ones. The correlation between MS and soil humus content is very high ( up to 0.90) in both cases. Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma (in press), doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017 Jordanova D., Jordanova N., Atanasova A., Tsacheva T., Petrov P

  18. Modeling study of biomass burning plumes and their impact on urban air quality; a case study of Santiago de Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuchiara, G. C.; Rappenglück, B.; Rubio, M. A.; Lissi, E.; Gramsch, E.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2017-10-01

    On January 4, 2014, during the summer period in South America, an intense forest and dry pasture wildfire occurred nearby the city of Santiago de Chile. On that day the biomass-burning plume was transported by low-intensity winds towards the metropolitan area of Santiago and impacted the concentration of pollutants in this region. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is implemented to investigate the biomass-burning plume associated with these wildfires nearby Santiago, which impacted the ground-level ozone concentration and exacerbated Santiago's air quality. Meteorological variables simulated by WRF/Chem are compared against surface and radiosonde observations, and the results show that the model reproduces fairly well the observed wind speed, wind direction air temperature and relative humidity for the case studied. Based on an analysis of the transport of an inert tracer released over the locations, and at the time the wildfires were captured by the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the model reproduced reasonably well the transport of biomass burning plume towards the city of Santiago de Chile within a time delay of two hours as observed in ceilometer data. A six day air quality simulation was performed: the first three days were used to validate the anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and the last three days (during and after the wildfire event) to analyze the performance of WRF/Chem plume-rise model within FINNv1 fire emission estimations. The model presented a satisfactory performance on the first days of the simulation when contrasted against data from the well-established air quality network over the city of Santiago de Chile. These days represent the urban air quality base case for Santiago de Chile unimpacted by fire emissions. However, for the last three simulation days, which were impacted by the fire emissions, the statistical indices showed a decrease in

  19. Competing with the use of business model innovation : an exploratory case study of the journey of born global firms

    OpenAIRE

    Marlene Johansson; Jan Tony Abrahamsson

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...

  20. Competing with the use of business model innovation : an exploratory case study of the journey of born global firms

    OpenAIRE

    Marlene Johansson; Jan Tony Abrahamsson

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...

  1. Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Reality Television: The Biggest Loser Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E.; Piazza-Gardner, Anna K.

    2012-01-01

    This teaching idea presents a heuristic example using reality television as a tool for applying health behavior theory. It utilizes The Biggest Loser (TBL) to provide "real world" cases depicting how individuals progress through/experience the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). Observing TBL contestants provides students practice grounding…

  2. A MCDM-based model for vendor selection: a case study in the particleboard industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Reza Zanjirani Farahani; Moslem Fadaei

    2012-01-01

    We investigated procurement of raw materials for particleboard to minimize costs and develop an efficient optimization model for product mix.In a multiple-vendor market,vendors must be evaluated based on specified criteria.Assuming sourcing from the highest-scoring vendors,annual purchase quantities are then planned.To meet procurement needs,we first propose a model to describe the problem.Then,an appropriate multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) technique is selected to solve it.We ran the model using commercial software such as LINGO(R) and then compared the model results to a real case involving one of the largest particleboard manufacturers in the region.The model mn based real data yielded a procurement program that is more efficient and lower in cost than the program currently in use.Use of this procurement modelling approach would yield considerable financial returns.

  3. Development Model to Improve the Quality of Academic Administration: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tawee Puengphai

    2012-01-01

    of requirement and concepts, theories and research related documents in order to determine a strategic development according to the quality development process of demming (PDCA to assess quality of a school. The audit by experts found that the model is appropriate for implementation with a high score, 3 A comparison of the development of academic achievement of students in Primary School Level 3 (NT and Level 6 (O-NET between academic year 2551 and 2552 found that the achievement was higher. (4 For the satisfaction of relevant parties regarding the model to improve the quality of academic administration of Ban Nongkham Borkaeowittaya School, it was found that school administrators, teachers, board of directors and student have a high level satisfaction. Conclusion: The development model to improve the quality of academic administration: A case study of Ban Nongkham Borkaeowittaya School can improve students effectively and every relevant party is satisfied.

  4. Mathematical modeling of human glioma growth based on brain topological structures: study of two clinical cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Suarez

    Full Text Available Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumors and yet almost incurable due mainly to their great invasion capability. This represents a challenge to present clinical oncology. Here, we introduce a mathematical model aiming to improve tumor spreading capability definition. The model consists in a time dependent reaction-diffusion equation in a three-dimensional spatial domain that distinguishes between different brain topological structures. The model uses a series of digitized images from brain slices covering the whole human brain. The Talairach atlas included in the model describes brain structures at different levels. Also, the inclusion of the Brodmann areas allows prediction of the brain functions affected during tumor evolution and the estimation of correlated symptoms. The model is solved numerically using patient-specific parametrization and finite differences. Simulations consider an initial state with cellular proliferation alone (benign tumor, and an advanced state when infiltration starts (malign tumor. Survival time is estimated on the basis of tumor size and location. The model is used to predict tumor evolution in two clinical cases. In the first case, predictions show that real infiltrative areas are underestimated by current diagnostic imaging. In the second case, tumor spreading predictions were shown to be more accurate than those derived from previous models in the literature. Our results suggest that the inclusion of differential migration in glioma growth models constitutes another step towards a better prediction of tumor infiltration at the moment of surgical or radiosurgical target definition. Also, the addition of physiological/psychological considerations to classical anatomical models will provide a better and integral understanding of the patient disease at the moment of deciding therapeutic options, taking into account not only survival but also life quality.

  5. Sub-regional linear programming models in land use analysis: a case study of the Neguev settlement, Costa Rica.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, R.A.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Jansen, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    The paper deals with linear programming as a tool for land use analysis at the sub-regional level. A linear programming model of a case study area, the Neguev settlement in the Atlantic zone of Costa Rica, is presented. The matrix of the model includes five submatrices each encompassing a different

  6. Modeling Irrigation Networks for the Quantification of Potential Energy Recovering: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modesto Pérez-Sánchez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Water irrigation systems are required to provide adequate pressure levels in any sort of network. Quite frequently, this requirement is achieved by using pressure reducing valves (PRVs. Nevertheless, the possibility of using hydraulic machines to recover energy instead of PRVs could reduce the energy footprint of the whole system. In this research, a new methodology is proposed to help water managers quantify the potential energy recovering of an irrigation water network with adequate conditions of topographies distribution. EPANET has been used to create a model based on probabilities of irrigation and flow distribution in real networks. Knowledge of the flows and pressures in the network is necessary to perform an analysis of economic viability. Using the proposed methodology, a case study has been analyzed in a typical Mediterranean region and the potential available energy has been estimated. The study quantifies the theoretical energy recoverable if hydraulic machines were installed in the network. Particularly, the maximum energy potentially recovered in the system has been estimated up to 188.23 MWh/year with a potential saving of non-renewable energy resources (coal and gas of CO2 137.4 t/year.

  7. Developing and pretesting case studies in dental and dental hygiene education: using the diffusion of innovations model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cragun, Deborah L; DeBate, Rita DiGioacchino; Severson, Herbert H; Shaw, Tracy; Christiansen, Steve; Koerber, Anne; Tomar, Scott L; Brown, Kelli McCormack; Tedesco, Lisa A; Hendricson, William D

    2012-05-01

    Case-based learning offers exposure to clinical situations that health professions students may not encounter in their training. The purposes of this study were to apply the Diffusion of Innovations conceptual framework to 1) identify characteristics of case studies that would increase their adoption among dental and dental hygiene faculty members and 2) develop and pretest interactive web-based case studies on sensitive oral-systemic health issues. The formative study spanned two phases using mixed methods (Phase 1: eight focus groups and four interviews; Phase 2: ten interviews and satisfaction surveys). Triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data revealed the following positive attributes of the developed case studies: relative advantage of active learning and modeling; compatibility with a variety of courses; observability of case-related knowledge and skills; independent learning; and modifiability for use with other oral-systemic health issues. These positive attributes are expected to increase the likelihood that dental and dental hygiene faculty members will adopt the developed case study once it is available for use. The themes identified in this study could be applied to the development of future case studies and may provide broader insight that might prove useful for exploring differences in case study use across dental and dental hygiene curricula.

  8. Prediction of Frost Risks and Plagues using WRF model: a Port Wine region case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, M. A.; Rocha, A.; Monteiro, A.; Quénol, H.; de Freitas, J. R.

    2012-04-01

    In viticulture where the quality of the wine, the selection of the grapevines or even the characteristics of the farming soil, also depending from local soil features like topography, proximity of a river or water body, will act locally on the weather. Frosts are of significant concern to growers of many cultures crops such as winegrapes. Because of their high latitude and some altitude, the vineyards of the Demarcated Douro Region (DDR) are subjected to the frost, which cause serious damages. But the hazards of vineyard don't confine to the incidents of the fortuitous and meteorological character. The illnesses and plagues affect frequently the vineyards of Demarcated Douro Region due, namely to the weather, to the high power of the regional stocks, to the dense vegetation badly drained and favourable to the setting of numberless fungi, viruses and/or poisonous insects. In the case of DDR it is worth noticing the meteorological conditions due to the weather characteristics. Although there are several illnesses and plagues the most important enemies for the vine in the DDR are the mildew, oidium, grey rottenness, grape moth,. . . , if the climatic conditions favour their appearance and development. For this study, we selected some months for different periods, at the 16 weather stations of the Region of Douro. We use the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) to study and possibly predict the occurrence of risk and plagues (mildew) episodes. The model is first validated with the meteorological data obtained at the weather stations. The knowledge of frost and plagues occurrence allows one to decrease its risks not only by selecting the cultural species and varieties but also the places of growth and the planting and sowing dates.

  9. On Spatially Explicit Models of Epidemic and Endemic Cholera: The Haiti and Lake Kivu Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Finger, F.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2014-12-01

    The first part of the Lecture deals with the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic. Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. A formal model comparison framework provides a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels. Intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that parsimonious spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have superior explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to intermediate calibration windows. In general, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. The second part deals with approaches suitable to describe patterns of endemic cholera. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of lake Kivu. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multi-year dataset of reported cholera cases. Fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, are selected in calibration. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Nino Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross-validation.

  10. Project management case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Kerzner, Harold R

    2013-01-01

    A new edition of the most popular book of project management case studies, expanded to include more than 100 cases plus a ""super case"" on the Iridium Project Case studies are an important part of project management education and training. This Fourth Edition of Harold Kerzner''s Project Management Case Studies features a number of new cases covering value measurement in project management. Also included is the well-received ""super case,"" which covers all aspects of project management and may be used as a capstone for a course. This new edition:Contains 100-plus case studies drawn from re

  11. Feasibibility study - cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    The chapter presents two case studies to show the tools of feasibiliy studies within the context of technological innovation.......The chapter presents two case studies to show the tools of feasibiliy studies within the context of technological innovation....

  12. Development of a numerical reactive transport modelling framework - Concept & Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbacher, T.; Jang, E.; He, W.; Shao, H.; Zolfaghari, R.; Kolditz, O.

    2014-12-01

    Civilization and in particular agriculture worldwide depends on the availability of clean freshwater resources stored in the underlying soil and aquifer systems. Unfortunately, water quality is often deteriorating, which is e.g. due to the extensive use of fertilizers or pesticides in agriculture or infiltrating waste water from cities and industries. All groundwater bodies commonly discharge into the nearby surface-water bodies like streams, lakes, or springs, and soil water is a direct water source for the biosphere. Therefore, bio-hydro-geochemical reaction systems along flow paths of the unsaturated as well as the saturated zone can have a strong impact on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The simulation of such reactive transport problems in different hydrological compartments can help to understanding the comprehensive processes chain. One way to evaluate the water quality in space and time is to model the mass transport in soil and/or groundwater together with the contemporaneous chemical reactions numerically. Such physical and bio- hydro- geochemical driven forward simulations are usually solved by standard finite differences, finite element or finite volume methods, but simulating these scenarios at catchment scales is a challenging task due to the extreme computational load, numerical stability issues and different scale-dependencies. The main focus of the present study is the numerical simulation of reactive transport processes in heterogeneous porous media at large scales, i.e. from field scale, over hill slopes towards catchment scale. The objective of the study is, to develop a robust modelling framework which allows to identify appropriate levels of heterogeneity as well as the possibly dominating structural features (e.g. S-shaped clay lenses) with respect to specific reaction systems. The presented modelling framework will describe the functional interaction of different numerical methods and high performing computing (HPC) techniques by the use

  13. Integrating mixed-effect models into an architectural plant model to simulate inter- and intra-progeny variability: a case study on oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Perez, Raphaël P A; Pallas, Benoît; Le Moguédec, Gilles; Rey, Hervé; Griffon, Sébastien; Caliman, Jean-Pierre; Costes, Evelyne; Dauzat, Jean

    2016-01-01

    ... (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) as a case study. Allometric relationships were used to model architectural traits from individual leaflets to the entire crown while accounting for ontogenetic and morphogenetic gradients...

  14. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  15. Improving the Teaching of ICT Engineering using Flipped Learning: a personalized model and a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhak Aqqal

    Full Text Available Abstract In recent years, Flipped Classroom started to be used as an effective way of teaching Engineering among various strategies in higher education. However, enabling and using the flipped learning is a complicated task, not a straightforward goal that can be simply achieved through a combination of face-to-face and online activities. It requires a more sophisticated understanding of effective teaching methods to manage the shift from the traditional to the flipped learning and the optimum adaptation of technology as part of this change. Given this challenge, this research work provides a personalized model of the flipped classroom and investigates through a case study in an Engineering School how our approach can be used to improve teaching of Information and Communication Technology (ICT Engineering. It assesses by using empirically data related to the interaction of the various actors at different levels of abstraction, particularly from a gender perspective, the relevance and the impact of the flipped classroom on student learning and achievement in ICT Engineering Education.

  16. Application Of Decision Tree Approach To Student Selection Model- A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Sudiya, Amby

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the institution is to provide quality education to the students and to improve the quality of managerial decisions. One of the ways to improve the quality of students is to arrange the selection of new students with a more selective. This research takes the case in the selection of new students at Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. One of the university's selection is through filtering administrative selection based on the records of prospective students at the high school without paper testing. Currently, that kind of selection does not yet has a standard model and criteria. Selection is only done by comparing candidate application file, so the subjectivity of assessment is very possible to happen because of the lack standard criteria that can differentiate the quality of students from one another. By applying data mining techniques classification, can be built a model selection for new students which includes criteria to certain standards such as the area of origin, the status of the school, the average value and so on. These criteria are determined by using rules that appear based on the classification of the academic achievement (GPA) of the students in previous years who entered the university through the same way. The decision tree method with C4.5 algorithm is used here. The results show that students are given priority for admission is that meet the following criteria: came from the island of Java, public school, majoring in science, an average value above 75, and have at least one achievement during their study in high school.

  17. The Traveling Optical Scanner – Case Study on 3D Shape Models of Ancient Brazilian Skulls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trinderup, Camilla Himmelstrup; Dahl, Vedrana Andersen; Gregersen, Kristian Murphy

    2016-01-01

    morphological modelling is possible with accurate description of the specimens provided by the models. Furthermore, performing studies on models reduces the risk of damage to the original specimen. In our work we employ a high resolution structured light scanner for digitalizing a collection of 8500 year old...

  18. Mitigation of urban heat stress – a modelling case study for the area of Stuttgart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fallmann, Joachim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2050 the fraction of urban global population will increase to over 69%, which means that around 6.3 billion people are expected to live in urban areas (UN 2011. Cities are the predominant habitation places for humans to live and are vulnerable to extreme weather events aggravating phenomena like heat stress. Finding mitigation strategies to sustain future development is of great importance, given expected influences on human health. In this study, the mesoscale numerical model WRF is used on a regional scale for the urban area of Stuttgart, to simulate the effect of urban planning strategies on dynamical processes affecting urban climate. After comparing two urban parameterisation schemes, a sensitivity study for different scenarios is performed; it shows that a change of the reflective properties of surfaces has the highest impact on near-surface temperatures compared to an increase of urban green areas or a decrease of building density. The Urban Heat Island (UHI describes the temperature difference between urban and rural temperatures; it characterises regional urban climate and is responsible for urban-rural circulation patterns. Applying urban planning measures may decrease the intensity of the UHI in the study area by up to 2 °C by using heat-reflective roof paints or by 1 °C through replacing impervious surfaces by natural vegetation in the urban vicinity – compared to a value of 2.5 °C for the base case. Because of its topographical location in a valley and the overall high temperatures in this region, the area of Stuttgart suffers from heat stress to a comparatively large extent.

  19. Model validation lessons learned: A case study at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ketelle, R.H.; Lee, R.R.; Bownds, J.M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Rizk, T.A. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1989-11-01

    A groundwater flow and contaminant transport model validation study was performed to determine the applicability of typical groundwater flow models for performance assessment of proposed waste disposal facilities at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Standard practice site interpretation and groundwater modeling resulted in inaccurate predictions of contaminant transport at a proposed waste disposal site. The site`s complex and heterogeneous geology, the presence of flow dominated by fractured and weathered zones, and the strongly transient character of shallow aquifer recharge and discharge combined to render assumptions of steady-state, homogeneous groundwater flow invalid. The study involved iterative phases of site field investigation and modeling. Subsequent modeling activities focused on generation of a model grid incorporating the observed site geologic heterogeneity, and on establishing and using model boundary conditions based on site data. Time dependent water table configurations, and fixed head boundary conditions were used as input to the refined model in simulating groundwater flow at the site.

  20. Application of a Multi-Objective Network Model to a Combat Simulation Game: The Drive on Metz Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    VBA ) macros to set up the scenario. The assumptions required to implement the model are listed in Section 1.4.3 and are again summarized here: 1. One... model could be increased by reworking the VBA code to be more efficient or using a more advanced programming language or technique. Efficiency can also...APPLICATION OF A MULTI-OBJECTIVE NETWORK MODEL TO A COMBAT SIMULATION GAME: “THE DRIVE ON METZ” CASE STUDY THESIS Timothy D. Frawley, Captain, USAF

  1. Developing an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Urban Land-Use Expansion (Case Study: Qazvin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nourian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Extended abstract1-IntroductionUrban land-use expansion is a challenging issue in developing countries. Increases in population as well as the immigration from the villages to the cities are the two major factors for that phenomenon. Those factors have reduced the influence of efforts that try to limit the cities’ boundaries. Thus, spatial planners always look for the models that simulate the expansion of urban land-uses and enable them to prevent unbalanced expansions of cities and guide the developments to the desired areas. Several models have been developed and evaluated for simulating urban land-use expansions. Despite the variety of the models, most of them have focused on simulating urban land-use expansions just around a city. Thus, the regional models that consider wider area are of primary importance.2- Theoretical basesIn this study a new agent-based model has been developed and implemented to simulate urban land-use expansion in Qazvin and Alborz regions of Qazvin state which have an area of 1620 square kilometers. In this model, land-use developers have been treated as agents that move in the landscape explicitly and assess the state of parcels for development. So, the environment of the model is raster. The agents are developed into five groups which have different aims. The agents may fall in competition to develop the same parcels. Moreover, due to the spatial essence of the problem, GIS were used to prepare the environment of agents’ movement and search and to aggregate and analyze the results.Two main steps can be recognized in this model: the Searching step and the Development step:Searching step: The agents are created and distributed in the districts. The selection of districts is probabilistic and is based on the primary probability of selection, assumed for districts. When agents go to the districts, at first they move randomly to the neighborhood of pre-developed areas. Wherever the agent starts its activities, it

  2. Effects of Uncertainties in Hydrological Modelling. A Case Study of a Mountainous Catchment in Southern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin

    2016-04-01

    in the precipitation and temperature input has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Reduced information in precipitation input resulted in a and a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using wrong rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions obtained using a wrong rating curve, the evaluation scores varies depending on the true rating curve. Generally, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for a rating curves giving low variance in streamflow observations. Reduced information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores giving both better and worse scores. This case study shows that estimating the water balance is challenging since both precipitation inputs and streamflow observations have pronounced systematic component in their uncertainties.

  3. Modeling the Economic Incentives of DDoS Attacks: Femtocell Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Vicente; Lahuerta, Javier

    Many of the Internet security incidents are caused by agents which act moved by economic incentives. When that is the case, it is possible to model at tacker's incentives by applying economics principles and, if we can collect appropriate data, we can use the model to have a better understanding of the risk imposed by these threats. This paper presents a simple model that represents the economic incentives for launching DDoS attacks against a specific telecommunications service. In addition, some data has been collected in order to quantify some of the variables of the model. Finally, some simulations have been performed to have a better knowledge of the risk of suffering this kind of attacks and propose solutions to mitigate it.

  4. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME). Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Musaeus, Peter; Bennedsen, Andreas Brændstrup; Hansen, Janne Saltoft

    2015-01-01

    I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics) ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation) for, hvordan...... kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse...

  5. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME). Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Musaeus, Peter; Bennedsen, Andreas Brændstrup; Hansen, Janne Saltoft

    2015-01-01

    I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics) ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation) for, hvordan...... kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse...

  6. A Case Study of Higher Education Competency Models Utilizing an Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Jayme

    2012-01-01

    The overall purpose of this study is to explore the creation and implementation of competency models in higher education masters level preparation programs. The study answers five research questions. Why and how did two higher education preparation programs create a professional competency model for the graduate students in the program and what…

  7. Cross-Border Collaboration in History among Nordic Students: A Case Study about Creating Innovative ICT Didactic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spante, Maria; Karlsen, Asgjerd Vea; Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Christiansen, Rene B.

    2014-01-01

    Gränsöverskridande Nordisk Undervisning/Utdanelse (GNU, meaning Cross-Border Nordic Education), the larger Nordic project, under which this case study was carried out, aims at developing innovative, cross-border teaching models in different subject domains in elementary school, including mathematics, language, science, social studies and history.…

  8. High Resolution Modeling in Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Management: AN Extreme Precipitation Event Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masarik, M. T.; Watson, K. A.; Flores, A. N.; Anderson, K.; Tangen, S.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources infrastructure of the Western US is designed to deliver reliable water supply to users and provide recreational opportunities for the public, as well as afford flood control for communities by buffering variability in precipitation and snow storage. Thus water resource management is a balancing act of meeting multiple objectives while trying to anticipate and mitigate natural variability of water supply. Currently, the forecast guidance available to personnel managing resources in mountainous terrain is lacking in two ways: the spatial resolution is too coarse, and there is a gap in the intermediate time range (10-30 days). To address this need we examine the effectiveness of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art, regional, numerical weather prediction model, as a means to generate high-resolution weather guidance in the intermediate time range. This presentation will focus on a reanalysis and hindcasting case study of the extreme precipitation and flooding event in the Payette River Basin of Idaho during the period of June 2nd-4th, 2010. For the reanalysis exercise we use NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data sets as input boundary conditions to WRF. The model configuration includes a horizontal spatial resolution of 3km in the outer nest, and 1 km in the inner nest, with output temporal resolution of 3 hrs and 1 hr, respectively. The hindcast simulations, which are currently underway, will make use of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSRR) data. The current state of these runs will be discussed. Preparations for the second of two components in this project, weekly WRF forecasts during the intense portion of the water year, will be briefly described. These forecasts will use the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast data as boundary conditions to provide forecast guidance geared towards water resource

  9. Analysis of groundwater discharge with a lumped-parameter model, using a case study from Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdniakov, S. P.; Shestakov, V. M.

    A lumped-parameter model of groundwater balance is proposed that permits an estimate of discharge variability in comparison with the variability of recharge, by taking into account the influence of aquifer parameters. Recharge-discharge relationships are analysed with the model for cases of deterministic and stochastic recharge time-series variations. The model is applied to study the temporal variability of groundwater discharge in a river valley in the territory of Tajikistan, an independent republic in Central Asia. Résumé Un modèle global de bilan d'eau souterraine a été développé pour estimer la variabilité de l'écoulement par rapport à celle de la recharge, en prenant en compte l'influence des paramètres de l'aquifère. Les relations entre recharge et écoulement sont analysées à l'aide du modèle pour des variations des chroniques de recharge soit déterministes, soit stochastiques. Le modèle est appliquéà l'étude de la variabilité temporelle de l'écoulement souterrain vers une rivière, dans le Tadjikistan, une république indépendante d'Asie centrale. Resumen Se propone un modelo de parámetros concentrados para realizar el balance de aguas subterráneas, el cual permite estimar la variabilidad en la descarga con respecto a la variabilidad en la recarga, en función de los parámetros que caracterizan el acuífero. Las relaciones entre recarga y descarga se analizan con el modelo para distintos casos de series temporales de recarga, tanto deterministas como estocásticas. El modelo se aplica al estudio de la variabilidad temporal de la descarga en un valle aluvial de Tadyikistán, una república independiente del Asia Central.

  10. Pragmatic guidelines and quality metrics in business process modeling: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isel Moreno-Montes-de-Oca

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Business process modeling is one of the first steps towards achieving organizational goals. This is why business process modeling quality is an essential aspect for the development and technical support of any company. This work focuses on the quality of business process models at a conceptual l evel (design and evaluation. In the literature there are works that propose practical guidelines for modeling, while others focus on quality metrics that allow the evaluation of the models. In this paper we use practical guidelines during the modeling phase of a business process for postgraduate studies. We applied a set of quality metrics and compare the results with those obtained from a similar model that did not use guidelines. The results provide support for the use of guidelines as a way for business process modeling quality improvement, and the practical utility of quality metrics in their evaluation.

  11. Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

    2001-05-01

    The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been

  12. Assessing Tourist Resorts Surrounding Metropolitans Applying SWOT- AHP Models Case study: Malaga Resort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Movahed

    2013-01-01

    Development District, No. I, spring summer 2008Mahmoudi, B. (2005, Assessing demand for forest recreational parks in the city of Khorramabad brine and Velvet Mountains (research projects, Lorestan University Research Council, 57 p.Senseless, M. and Naserpour rare. (2003 Assessing barriers to tourism development in the province, Journal of Business Research, No. 28. FallClerk M., Rahmatullah Vmrady, A. (2005, the impact of religious tourism on the physical spaces in Mashhad Journal of Earth Sciences, No. 11.Movahed, A. (2007 Urban Tourism, University of martyr ChamranMehdizadeh, J., (2007, Principles and guidelines for the development of tourism in Iran, Journal of the House, No. 44.Mirabzadeh, P. (1997 Environmental Impact Assessment of Tourism Development, Environmental Issues, No. 2.Nhrly, David and pleasing Dawn (1996 and introduces the capacity range of resorts Journal of Environmental Studies No. 29 Summer 1996Deng, Jinyang, Brianking & Ihomas Bauer (2004: Evaluatig natural attractions for tourism, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.29, Issue2: 422438Garrod Brian and Roz Wornell, Rey youel (2006 Re- conceptualizing rural resources as countryside capital: the case rural tourism, journal of rural study, V.22 Kim, Yog – Kwam (1988: Tourism Impact Assessment: A Test of Vested Interests Model, A Ph.D Thesie presented to Texas A & M University, UnpublishedLee, Choong – Ki (1992: The Ecoomic Impact of International Inbound Tourism on the South Korean Economy and its Distributional Effects on Income Classes, ASehofield, Peter (1996: Cinematographic Images of a City, Tourism Management, and Vol. 17 No. 5Zahedi, SH (2004: Ecological understanding: a prerequisite of sustainable ecotourism. Department of Managmet, Allameh Tabataba, University, Iran.

  13. A shared frailty model for case-cohort samples: parent and offspring relations in an adoption study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Liselotte; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2010-01-01

    of their biological and adoptive parents were collected with the purpose of studying the association of survival between the adoptee and his/her biological or adoptive parents. Motivated by this study, we explored how to make inference in a shared frailty model for case-cohort data. Our approach was to use inverse......The Danish adoption register contains data on the 12 301 Danish nonfamilial adoptions during 1924-1947. From that register a case-cohort sample was selected consisting of all case adoptees, that is those adoptees dying before age 70 years, and a random sample of 1683 adoptees. The survival data...... probability weighting to account for the sampling in a conditional, shared frailty Poisson model and to use the robust variance estimator proposed by Moger et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:1062-1074).To explore the performance of the estimation procedure, a simulation study was conducted. We studied situations...

  14. Class and Home Problems: Modeling of an Industrial Anaerobic Digester: A Case Study for Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durruty, Ignacio; Ayude, María A.

    2014-01-01

    The case study discussed in this work is used at the chemical reaction engineering course, offered in fifth-year of the chemical engineering undergraduate program at National University of Mar del Plata (UNMdP). A serial-parallel reaction system based on the anaerobic degradation of particulate-containing potato processing wastewater is presented.…

  15. Examining Success and Sustainability of Academic Writing: A Case Study of Two Writing-Group Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olszewska, Kinga; Lock, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    In contemporary higher education there is a growing demand for academics to increase their publication output. This requirement raises the question of how institutions can best support a sustainable academic writing culture, which is needed to challenge the assumption that all academics know how to write for publication. This case study examines…

  16. Class and Home Problems: Modeling of an Industrial Anaerobic Digester: A Case Study for Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durruty, Ignacio; Ayude, María A.

    2014-01-01

    The case study discussed in this work is used at the chemical reaction engineering course, offered in fifth-year of the chemical engineering undergraduate program at National University of Mar del Plata (UNMdP). A serial-parallel reaction system based on the anaerobic degradation of particulate-containing potato processing wastewater is presented.…

  17. Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacy, Marc; Gosakan, Mala; Eckdahl, Angela; Miller, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

  18. Winsorization on linear mixed model (Case study: National exam of senior high school in West Java)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuliyani, Leny; Kurnia, Anang; Indahwati

    2017-03-01

    In the case of hierarchical data is typically modeled with linear mixed model (LMM). The LMM requires the assumption of normality which is error and random effects are assumed normal distribution. However in practice, to meet the assumption of normality is difficult especially if the sample is small. Violation of the normality assumption can be caused by outliers. In this paper, we will examine the effect of outliers on the random effects and error and overcome them with the Winsorization technique. The result of application indicated that Winsorization technique with c-tuning constant iterative process produced root mean squared error, AIC, and BIC are smaller than the others. We conclude that Winsorization technique can be used to overcome outliers in linear mixed model fitting.

  19. Integrated modeling of complex socio-ecological systems: case study of the Mojana ecoregion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Andrea Villegas Gonzalez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Context: It was observed that the modeling of complex socio-ecological systems based on Agent-Based Simulations has the advantage of allowing the integration of different processes, scales, variables and the possibility to generate scenarios with actors in the context of the modeling with stakeholders. Method: A computational tool for planning and support of decision-making processes related with water resources management, specifically in the case of floods in the Mojana ecoregion (Colombia is designed along with social participation workshops related with beliefs, values, social networks and resilience. Results: The model has two components: the first one represents the hydrodynamic of flooding by means of the numerical platform ISIS 2D. The second one, regarding the social aspects of the region, is handled via agent systems modeling. Both schemes are integrated into the NetLogo platform. Conclusions: The integrated modeling of complex socio-ecological systems allow us to visualize the behavior of the population and the natural resources in a territory, contributing to the design of policies and educational processes involving different disciplines and actors. Future work will focus on regional modeling and the analysis of the impact produced by the use of these tools.

  20. The long-term effect of current and new interventions on the new case detection of leprosy: a modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egil A J Fischer

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although the number of newly detected leprosy cases has decreased globally, a quarter of a million new cases are detected annually and eradication remains far away. Current options for leprosy prevention are contact tracing and BCG vaccination of infants. Future options may include chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis of subclinical infections. This study compared the predicted trends in leprosy case detection of future intervention strategies. METHODS: Seven leprosy intervention scenarios were investigated with a microsimulation model (SIMCOLEP to predict future leprosy trends. The baseline scenario consisted of passive case detection, multidrug therapy, contact tracing, and BCG vaccination of infants. The other six scenarios were modifications of the baseline, as follows: no contact tracing; with chemoprophylaxis; with early diagnosis of subclinical infections; replacement of the BCG vaccine with a new tuberculosis vaccine ineffective against Mycobacterium leprae ("no BCG"; no BCG with chemoprophylaxis; and no BCG with early diagnosis. FINDINGS: Without contact tracing, the model predicted an initial drop in the new case detection rate due to a delay in detecting clinical cases among contacts. Eventually, this scenario would lead to new case detection rates higher than the baseline program. Both chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis would prevent new cases due to a reduction of the infectious period of subclinical cases by detection and cure of these cases. Also, replacing BCG would increase the new case detection rate of leprosy, but this effect could be offset with either chemoprophylaxis or early diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the leprosy incidence would be reduced substantially by good BCG vaccine coverage and the combined strategies of contact tracing, early diagnosis, and treatment of infection and/or chemoprophylaxis among household contacts. To effectively interrupt the transmission of M. leprae, it is

  1. Identifiability of parameters and behaviour of MCMC chains: a case study using the reaction norm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariati, M M; Korsgaard, I R; Sorensen, D

    2009-04-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) enables fitting complex hierarchical models that may adequately reflect the process of data generation. Some of these models may contain more parameters than can be uniquely inferred from the distribution of the data, causing non-identifiability. The reaction norm model with unknown covariates (RNUC) is a model in which unknown environmental effects can be inferred jointly with the remaining parameters. The problem of identifiability of parameters at the level of the likelihood and the associated behaviour of MCMC chains were discussed using the RNUC as an example. It was shown theoretically that when environmental effects (covariates) are considered as random effects, estimable functions of the fixed effects, (co)variance components and genetic effects are identifiable as well as the environmental effects. When the environmental effects are treated as fixed and there are other fixed factors in the model, the contrasts involving environmental effects, the variance of environmental sensitivities (genetic slopes) and the residual variance are the only identifiable parameters. These different identifiability scenarios were generated by changing the formulation of the model and the structure of the data and the models were then implemented via MCMC. The output of MCMC sampling schemes was interpreted in the light of the theoretical findings. The erratic behaviour of the MCMC chains was shown to be associated with identifiability problems in the likelihood, despite propriety of posterior distributions, achieved by arbitrarily chosen uniform (bounded) priors. In some cases, very long chains were needed before the pattern of behaviour of the chain may signal the existence of problems. The paper serves as a warning concerning the implementation of complex models where identifiability problems can be difficult to detect a priori. We conclude that it would be good practice to experiment with a proposed model and to understand its features

  2. Implementation of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in Construction: A Comparative Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlinson, Steve; Collins, Ronan; Tuuli, Martin M.; Jia, Yunyan

    2010-05-01

    Building Information Modeling (BIM) approach is increasingly adopted in coordination of construction projects, with a number of parties providing BIM services and software solutions. However, the empirical impact of BIM on construction industry has yet to be investigated. This paper explores the interaction between BIM and the construction industry during its implementation, with a specific focus on the empirical impacts of BIM on the design and construction processes and professional roles during the process. Two cases were selected from recent construction projects coordinated with BIM systems: the Venetian Casino project in Macau and the Cathy Pacific Cargo Terminal project in Hong Kong. The former case illustrates how the conflicts emerged during the design process and procurement were addressed by adopting a BIM approach. The latter demonstrates how the adoption of BIM altered the roles of architect, contractor, and sub-contractors involved in the project. The impacts of BIM were critically reviewed and discussed.

  3. Relational Understanding of the Derivative Concept through Mathematical Modeling: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Zulal; Aydogan Yenmez, Arzu; Erbas, Ayhan Kursat

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate three second-year graduate students' awareness and understanding of the relationships among the "big ideas" that underlie the concept of derivative through modeling tasks and Skemp's distinction between relational and instrumental understanding. The modeling tasks consisting of warm-up,…

  4. A Case Study of the Introductory Psychology Blended Learning Model at McMaster University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph A. Kim

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a brief review of blended learning as a didactic method, and discusses the issues and challenges of using blended learning models in post-secondary education. Blended learning refers to mixed modes of instruction that combine traditional face-to-face classroom teaching methods and online learning materials. The paper will address challenges faced by large classrooms with a diverse student body, and the ways blended learning models can help alleviate those concerns (i.e. technologically savvy students, the need for course scheduling flexibility. In addition, a case study of blended learning in higher education in the context of a unique first year Introductory Psychology program at McMaster University will be discussed. Lastly, the important learning benefits offered by blended learning systems, along with the potential barriers to their implementation will be addressed.Cet article présente un bref compte rendu de l’apprentissage hybride en tant que méthode didactique. Il traite des problèmes et des enjeux relatifs à l’utilisation des modèles d’apprentissage hybride dans le domaine de l’enseignement postsecondaire. L’apprentissage hybride renvoie aux modes d’enseignement mixtes qui combinent les méthodes d’enseignement traditionnel en présentiel et l’accès à des documents d’apprentissage en ligne. L’article traite des difficultés rencontrées dans les grands groupes comprenant une diversité d’étudiants et des façons dont les modèles d’apprentissage hybride peuvent contribuer à atténuer ces préoccupations (c.-à-d. les étudiants calés en technologie, la nécessité d’une offre de cours souple. De plus, l’article traite d’une étude de cas sur l’apprentissage hybride dans l’enseignement supérieur dans le cadre de la première année d’un programme d’introduction à la psychologie à l’Université McMaster. Enfin, l’article aborde les importants avantages offerts par

  5. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  6. Case study research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Ruth; Thomas-Gregory, Annette

    2015-06-10

    This article describes case study research for nursing and healthcare practice. Case study research offers the researcher an approach by which a phenomenon can be investigated from multiple perspectives within a bounded context, allowing the researcher to provide a 'thick' description of the phenomenon. Although case study research is a flexible approach for the investigation of complex nursing and healthcare issues, it has methodological challenges, often associated with the multiple methods used in individual studies. These are explored through examples of case study research carried out in practice and education settings. An overview of what constitutes 'good' case study research is proposed.

  7. Case Study: Case Studies and the Flipped Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman; Schiller, Nancy A.

    2013-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses the positive and negative aspects of the "flipped classroom." In the flipped classroom model, what is normally done in class and what is normally done as…

  8. The value of adding optics to ecosystem models: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujii

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Many ecosystem models have been developed to study the ocean's biogeochemical properties, but most of these models use simple formulations to describe light penetration and spectral quality. Here, an optical model is coupled with a previously published ecosystem model that explicitly represents two phytoplankton (picoplankton and diatoms and two zooplankton functional groups, as well as multiple nutrients and detritus. Surface ocean color fields and subsurface light fields are calculated by coupling the ecosystem model with an optical model that relates biogeochemical standing stocks with inherent optical properties (absorption, scattering; this provides input to a commercially available radiative transfer model (Ecolight. We apply this bio-optical model to the equatorial Pacific upwelling region, and find the model to be capable of reproducing many measured optical properties and key biogeochemical processes in this region. Our model results suggest that non-algal particles largely contribute to the total scattering or attenuation (>50% at 660 nm but have a much smaller contribution to particulate absorption (<20% at 440 nm, while picoplankton dominate the total phytoplankton absorption (>95% at 440 nm. These results are consistent with the field observations. In order to achieve such good agreement between data and model results, however, key model parameters, for which no field data are available, have to be constrained. Sensitivity analysis of the model results to optical parameters reveals a significant role played by colored dissolved organic matter through its influence on the quantity and quality of the ambient light. Coupling explicit optics to an ecosystem model provides advantages in generating: (1 a more accurate subsurface light-field, which is important for light sensitive biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis and photo-oxidation, (2 additional constraints on model parameters that help to reduce uncertainties in

  9. Training Post-9/11 Police Officers with a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training Model: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative holistic multiple-case study was to identify the optimal theoretical approach for a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training (CTRBT) model to train post-9/11 police officers to perform effectively in their counter-terrorism assignments. Post-9/11 police officers assigned to counter-terrorism duties are not trained…

  10. Improving uncertainty evaluation of process models by using pedigree analysis. A case study on CO2 capture with monoethanolamine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spek, Mijndert; Ramirez, Andrea|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Faaij, André

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to improve uncertainty evaluation of process models by combining a quantitative uncertainty evaluation method (data validation) with a qualitative uncertainty evaluation method (pedigree analysis). The approach is tested on a case study of monoethanolamine based postcombustion CO2

  11. Training Post-9/11 Police Officers with a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training Model: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative holistic multiple-case study was to identify the optimal theoretical approach for a Counter-Terrorism Reality-Based Training (CTRBT) model to train post-9/11 police officers to perform effectively in their counter-terrorism assignments. Post-9/11 police officers assigned to counter-terrorism duties are not trained…

  12. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME. Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Musaeus

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation for, hvordan kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse med evalueringsrapport om underviseres brug af Blackboard som beslutningsstøtte for feedback og pædagogisk intervention. Artiklen slutter med en diskussion af, hvordan data til læringsanalytik bør indsamles i LMS og bruges til afrapportering og undervisningsudvikling.

  13. Electronic business model for small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME): a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Karina; Chung, Walter W.

    2001-10-01

    This paper identifies three essential factors (information infrastructure, executive information system and a new manufacturing paradigm) that are used to support the development of a new business model for competitiveness. They facilitate changes in organization structure in support of business transformation. A SME can source a good manufacturing practice using a model of academic-university collaboration to gain competitive advantage in the e-business world. The collaboration facilitates the change agents to use information systems development as a vehicle to increase the capability of executives in using information and knowledge management to gain higher responsiveness and customer satisfaction. The case company is used to illustrate the application of a web-based executive information system to interface internal communications with external operation. It explains where a good manufacturing practice may be re-applied by other SMEs to acquire skills as a learning organization grows in an extended enterprise setting.

  14. Collaborative Model-based Systems Engineering for Cyber-Physical Systems, with a Building Automation Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzgerald, John; Gamble, Carl; Payne, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We describe an approach to the model-based engineering of cyber-physical systems that permits the coupling of diverse discrete-event and continuous-time models and their simulators. A case study in the building automation domain demonstrates how such co-models and co-simulation can promote early...... cooperation between disciplines within a systems engineering process before the expensive commitment is made to integration in physical prototypes. We identify areas for future advances in foundations, methods and tools to realise the potential of a co-modelling approach within established systems engineering...

  15. A qualitative model for strategic analysis of organizations. Application and alternative proposal on a study case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Ferro Moreno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The strategic analysis of organizations is based on the internal and external environments, in order to identify positive and negative variables and factors. The interrelation and timing of these strategic forces are essential to create alternative solutions that tend to achieve the organizational objectives.The normative prospective has theorical and methodological foundations to create a desired future and from it, be able to identify impelling and restraining forces that have influence on the particular problematic situation (go from the current situation to a better one in a certain time.The aim of this article is to analyze on a strategic way a real case with a normative-prospective model that considers the temporal dynamics of the factors impact and variables in time allowing to suggest alternative solutions.Semi-structured interviews were performed with all the employees of this case and structured observations and workshops with the commercial and general management.In consequence, with the results, the desired, current and improved situations were built. Additionally, forces were identified classified and appreciated and lastly solutions were suggested. With the proposed prospective method, alternative solutions could be constructed in order to settle temporary organizational objectives. No constraints were found to use the current method in other cases.Keywords: Strategic forces, Normative prospective, Problematic situations, Strategies

  16. Student-centered Role-based Case Study Model to Improve Learning in Decision Support Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farrukh Nadeem

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the important learning objectives of our bachelor course on "Techniques in Decision Support Systems" is to develop understanding of core decision making process in real-life business situations. The conventional teaching methods are unable to explain complexities of real-life business. Although the classroom discussions can be effective to understand general factors, such as opportunity cost, return on investment, etc. affecting business decisions, the effects of factors like dynamic business environment, incomplete information, time pressure etc. can not be truly explained through such simple discussions. In this paper, we describe our experience of adopting student-centered, role-based, case study to deal with this situation. The interactive case-based study not only provided students with experiential learning, but also gave them liberty to test their thoughts. As a result, we observed improved students' learning as well as improved grades. In addition, this approach made classes more dynamic and interesting.

  17. Modeling complex aquifer systems: a case study in Baton Rouge, Louisiana (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Hai V.; Tsai, Frank T.-C.

    2017-05-01

    This study targets two challenges in groundwater model development: grid generation and model calibration for aquifer systems that are fluvial in origin. Realistic hydrostratigraphy can be developed using a large quantity of well log data to capture the complexity of an aquifer system. However, generating valid groundwater model grids to be consistent with the complex hydrostratigraphy is non-trivial. Model calibration can also become intractable for groundwater models that intend to match the complex hydrostratigraphy. This study uses the Baton Rouge aquifer system, Louisiana (USA), to illustrate a technical need to cope with grid generation and model calibration issues. A grid generation technique is introduced based on indicator kriging to interpolate 583 wireline well logs in the Baton Rouge area to derive a hydrostratigraphic architecture with fine vertical discretization. Then, an upscaling procedure is developed to determine a groundwater model structure with 162 layers that captures facies geometry in the hydrostratigraphic architecture. To handle model calibration for such a large model, this study utilizes a derivative-free optimization method in parallel computing to complete parameter estimation in a few months. The constructed hydrostratigraphy indicates the Baton Rouge aquifer system is fluvial in origin. The calibration result indicates hydraulic conductivity for Miocene sands is higher than that for Pliocene to Holocene sands and indicates the Baton Rouge fault and the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault to be low-permeability leaky aquifers. The modeling result shows significantly low groundwater level in the "2,000-foot" sand due to heavy pumping, indicating potential groundwater upward flow from the "2,400-foot" sand.

  18. DOE ZERH Case Study: Charles Thomas Homes, Anna Model, Omaha, NE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2015-09-01

    Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in the cold climate that got a HERS 48 without PV, with 2x6 24” on center walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, ocsf at rim joists, basement with plus 2x4 stud walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, with R-20 around slab, R-38 under slab; a vented attic with R-100 blown cellulose; 95% AFUE furnace, 14 SEER AC, ERV; heat pump water heater.

  19. Combining Model-Based and Feature-Driven Diagnosis Approaches - A Case Study on Electromechanical Actuators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan, Sriram; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Balaban, Edward; Saxena, Abhinav

    2010-01-01

    Model-based diagnosis typically uses analytical redundancy to compare predictions from a model against observations from the system being diagnosed. However this approach does not work very well when it is not feasible to create analytic relations describing all the observed data, e.g., for vibration data which is usually sampled at very high rates and requires very detailed finite element models to describe its behavior. In such cases, features (in time and frequency domains) that contain diagnostic information are extracted from the data. Since this is a computationally intensive process, it is not efficient to extract all the features all the time. In this paper we present an approach that combines the analytic model-based and feature-driven diagnosis approaches. The analytic approach is used to reduce the set of possible faults and then features are chosen to best distinguish among the remaining faults. We describe an implementation of this approach on the Flyable Electro-mechanical Actuator (FLEA) test bed.

  20. Vessel grounding in entrance channels: case studies and physical model tests

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tulsi, K

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Physical model studies were conducted of a 250K DWT fully laden iron ore vessel grounding on the side slopes of the outbound channel at a major Australian port. A key deliverable of the study was to estimate the tug force required to pull the vessel...

  1. Time Series Model of Occupational Injuries Analysis in Ghanaian Mines-A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.J. Aidoo

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study has modeled occupational injuries at Gold Fields Ghana Limited (GFGL, Tarkwa Mine using time series analysis. Data was collected from the Safety and Environment Department from January 2007 to December 2010. Testing for stationarity condition using line graph from Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 17.0 edition failed, hence the use of Box-Jenkins method of differencing which tested positive after the first difference. ARIMA (1,1,1 model was then applied in modeling the stationary data and model diagnostic was done to ensure its appropriateness. The model was further used to forecast the occurrence of injuries at GFGL for two year period spanning from January 2011 to December 2012. The results show that occupational injuries for GFGL are going to have a slight upward and downward movement from January 2011 to May 2011, after which there will be stability (almost zero from June 2011 to December 2012.

  2. Air quality measurements versus model predictions: a case study for the Sugozu power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Korur; C. Derinoz; C. Yurteri [ENVY Energy and Environmental Investments Inc., Ankara (Turkey)

    2003-07-01

    Air quality modeling is one of the tools used in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies in order to predict the potential impacts of atmospheric emissions. The main advantage of air quality modeling is the simulation of the ground-level concentrations under different conditions (i.e., meteorological variations and other pollutant sources in the vicinity). The accuracy of model predictions, on the other hand, depends mainly on the quality of the input data reflecting meteorological and topographical conditions as well as emission sources. In this regard, the model predictions should be supported with monitoring data. In the paper, the predictions of Gaussian air dispersion model (Industrial Source Complex - ISC) for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2} carried out in the vicinity of the Sugozu Power Plant on the coast of Turkey are compared with the air quality monitoring results of the same region. 2 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Physiologically Based Absorption Modeling to Impact Biopharmaceutics and Formulation Strategies in Drug Development-Industry Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesisoglou, Filippos; Chung, John; van Asperen, Judith; Heimbach, Tycho

    2016-09-01

    In recent years, there has been a significant increase in use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models in drug development and regulatory applications. Although most of the published examples have focused on aspects such as first-in-human (FIH) dose predictions or drug-drug interactions, several publications have highlighted the application of these models in the biopharmaceutics field and their use to inform formulation development. In this report, we present 5 case studies of use of such models in this biopharmaceutics/formulation space across different pharmaceutical companies. The case studies cover different aspects of biopharmaceutics or formulation questions including (1) prediction of absorption prior to FIH studies; (2) optimization of formulation and dissolution method post-FIH data; (3) early exploration of a modified-release formulation; (4) addressing bridging questions for late-stage formulation changes; and (5) prediction of pharmacokinetics in the fed state for a Biopharmaceutics Classification System class I drug with fasted state data. The discussion of the case studies focuses on how such models can facilitate decisions and biopharmaceutic understanding of drug candidates and the opportunities for increased use and acceptance of such models in drug development and regulatory interactions.

  4. A business model improvement proposal for Finnish enterprises doing business in China : case study: Hankintatukku Oy

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Mengzhen

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to propose a more adaptable business model for Finnish Hankintatukku Oy to help it be more successful in China. To achieve the objective, inductive research approach with qualitative and quantitative research methods are used in this thesis. With inductive research approach, data is collected to analyze the main elements inside a business model and marketing development trend in China. As a result, the final proposal comes out based on the marketing development trend in China ...

  5. E-Procurement Policy Model: Case Study of Health Agency North Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Trimurni, Februati; Siahaan, Asima Yanty S.; Dayana

    2016-01-01

    E-procurement policy is one form of reformation in procurement in Indonesia which aims at enhancing transparency in public procurement. E-procurement can be implemented through e-tendering and e-purchasing methods by utilizing e-catalogue. Policy implementation model was used to assist the realization of the goal of eprocurement policy. This study found three significant factors of e-procurement policy implementation model , namely legal foundation, infrastructure and human resour...

  6. Modeling and simulation of queuing system for customer service improvement: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Tan Chai; Hong, Chai Weng; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

    2016-10-01

    This study aims to develop a queuing model at UniMall by using discrete event simulation approach in analyzing the service performance that affects customer satisfaction. The performance measures that considered in this model are such as the average time in system, the total number of student served, the number of student in waiting queue, the waiting time in queue as well as the maximum length of buffer. ARENA simulation software is used to develop a simulation model and the output is analyzed. Based on the analysis of output, it is recommended that management of UniMall consider introducing shifts and adding another payment counter in the morning.

  7. Two-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Intracontinental Extension: A Case Study Of the Baikal Rift Formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, H.; Chemia, Zurab; Artemieva, Irina

    and geophysical studies, the geodynamic origin and evolution of the BRZ is still debated. We applytwo-dimensional finite difference code to model the lithosphere-scale de-formation in several locations across the strike of the Baikal Rift zone. The model se-tup takes an advantage of regional geophysical models...... to determinethe set of parameters that may define regional li-thosphere evolution towards the present lithosphere structure, which we further con-trol by gravity data, regional volcanism, and the age of the BRZ formation. We dem-onstrate the roleof pre-existing faults on the BRZ evolution and on formation of "off...

  8. Fluid prediction using rock modelling and reconnaissance. AVO analysis - A case study from the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osdal, Bard; Granli, John Reidar

    1998-12-31

    Seismic lithology and fluid phase prediction (LFP) is becoming an important part of seismic interpretation, and can contribute significantly to risk reduction prior to drilling. In this presentation there is focused on quantitative interpretation of the amplitudes in a 2-D dataset, with respect to presence of hydrocarbons. Different aspect of the working producer, like data quality (well data and seismic data), rock modelling and seismic modelling will be illustrated. In the present study only one well has been used for calibration and to investigate the seismic response for different fluid and lithology scenarios. The rock modelling included evaluation of seismic parameter effect for different fluid and porosities. 1 ref., 4 figs.

  9. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially-explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear catchment, NC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Hamel

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko framework. Our study involved the comparison of ten subcatchments in the Cape Fear watershed, NC, ranging in size and land use configuration. We analyzed the model sensitivity to the eco-hydrological parameters and the effect of extrapolating a lumped theory to a fully distributed model. Comparison of the model predictions with observations and with a lumped water balance model confirmed that the model is able to represent differences in land uses. Our results also emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the eco-hydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. In practice, our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While the results are inherently local, analysis of the model structure suggests that many insights from this study will hold globally. Further work toward characterization of uncertainties in such simple models will help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  10. Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conoscenti, Christian; Rotigliano, Edoardo; Cama, Mariaelena; Caraballo-Arias, Nathalie Almaru; Lombardo, Luigi; Agnesi, Valerio

    2016-05-01

    A statistical approach was employed to model the spatial distribution of rainfall-triggered landslides in two areas in Sicily (Italy) that occurred during the winter of 2004-2005. The investigated areas are located within the Belice River basin and extend for 38.5 and 10.3 km2, respectively. A landslide inventory was established for both areas using two Google Earth images taken on October 25th 2004 and on March 18th 2005, to map slope failures activated or reactivated during this interval. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to prepare 5 m grids of the dependent variables (absence/presence of landslide) and independent variables (lithology and 13 DEM-derivatives). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were applied to model landslide susceptibility whereas receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance. To evaluate the robustness of the whole procedure, we prepared 10 different samples of positive (landslide presence) and negative (landslide absence) cases for each area. Absences were selected through two different methods: (i) extraction from randomly distributed circles with a diameter corresponding to the mean width of the landslide source areas; and (ii) selection as randomly distributed individual grid cells. A comparison was also made between the predictive performances of models including and not including the lithology parameter. The models trained and tested on the same area demonstrated excellent to outstanding fit (AUC > 0.8). On the other hand, predictive skill decreases when measured outside the calibration area, although most of the landslides occur where susceptibility is high and the overall model performance is acceptable (AUC > 0.7). The results also showed that the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models is higher when lithology is included in the statistical analysis. Models whose absences were selected using random circles showed a

  11. Mathematical modelling with case studies a differential equations approach using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2011-01-01

    ""The book is written in a very lucid manner, with numerous case studies and examples thoroughly discussed. The material is very well organized, generously illustrated, and delightfully presented. All chapters, except the first one, conclude with scores of nicely designed exercises that can be used for independent study. The book contains enough material to organize a new well-structured one-semester course or to complement the existing one with additional examples and problems and is highly recommended for either purpose""-Zentralblatt MATH, 1168""… The book can be useful for students of math

  12. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  13. Estimating multivariate response surface model with data outliers, case study in enhancing surface layer properties of an aircraft aluminium alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widodo, Edy; Kariyam

    2017-03-01

    To determine the input variable settings that create the optimal compromise in response variable used Response Surface Methodology (RSM). There are three primary steps in the RSM problem, namely data collection, modelling, and optimization. In this study focused on the establishment of response surface models, using the assumption that the data produced is correct. Usually the response surface model parameters are estimated by OLS. However, this method is highly sensitive to outliers. Outliers can generate substantial residual and often affect the estimator models. Estimator models produced can be biased and could lead to errors in the determination of the optimal point of fact, that the main purpose of RSM is not reached. Meanwhile, in real life, the collected data often contain some response variable and a set of independent variables. Treat each response separately and apply a single response procedures can result in the wrong interpretation. So we need a development model for the multi-response case. Therefore, it takes a multivariate model of the response surface that is resistant to outliers. As an alternative, in this study discussed on M-estimation as a parameter estimator in multivariate response surface models containing outliers. As an illustration presented a case study on the experimental results to the enhancement of the surface layer of aluminium alloy air by shot peening.

  14. The importance of accurate muscle modelling for biomechanical analyses: a case study with a lizard skull

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröning, Flora; Jones, Marc E. H.; Curtis, Neil; Herrel, Anthony; O'Higgins, Paul; Evans, Susan E.; Fagan, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Computer-based simulation techniques such as multi-body dynamics analysis are becoming increasingly popular in the field of skull mechanics. Multi-body models can be used for studying the relationships between skull architecture, muscle morphology and feeding performance. However, to be confident in the modelling results, models need to be validated against experimental data, and the effects of uncertainties or inaccuracies in the chosen model attributes need to be assessed with sensitivity analyses. Here, we compare the bite forces predicted by a multi-body model of a lizard (Tupinambis merianae) with in vivo measurements, using anatomical data collected from the same specimen. This subject-specific model predicts bite forces that are very close to the in vivo measurements and also shows a consistent increase in bite force as the bite position is moved posteriorly on the jaw. However, the model is very sensitive to changes in muscle attributes such as fibre length, intrinsic muscle strength and force orientation, with bite force predictions varying considerably when these three variables are altered. We conclude that accurate muscle measurements are crucial to building realistic multi-body models and that subject-specific data should be used whenever possible. PMID:23614944

  15. A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei

    2017-05-05

    It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecasting models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.

  16. Comparing Dutch Case management care models for people with dementia and their caregivers: The design of the COMPAS study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacNeil Vroomen Janet

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dementia care in the Netherlands is shifting from fragmented, ad hoc care to more coordinated and personalised care. Case management contributes to this shift. The linkage model and a combination of intensive case management and joint agency care models were selected based on their emerging prominence in the Netherlands. It is unclear if these different forms of case management are more effective than usual care in improving or preserving the functioning and well-being at the patient and caregiver level and at the societal cost. The objective of this article is to describe the design of a study comparing these two case management care models against usual care. Clinical and cost outcomes are investigated while care processes and the facilitators and barriers for implementation of these models are considered. Design Mixed methods include a prospective, observational, controlled, cohort study among persons with dementia and their primary informal caregiver in regions of the Netherlands with and without case management including a qualitative process evaluation. Inclusion criteria for the cohort study are: community-dwelling individuals with a dementia diagnosis who are not terminally-ill or anticipate admission to a nursing home within 6 months and with an informal caregiver who speaks fluent Dutch. Person with dementia-informal caregiver dyads are followed for two years. The primary outcome measure is the Neuropsychiatric Inventory for the people with dementia and the General Health Questionnaire for their caregivers. Secondary outcomes include: quality of life and needs assessment in both persons with dementia and caregivers, activity of daily living, competence of care, and number of crises. Costs are measured from a societal perspective using cost diaries. Process indicators measure the quality of care from the participant’s perspective. The qualitative study uses purposive sampling methods to ensure a wide variation of

  17. Flood modeling using WMS model for determining peak flood discharge in southwest Iran case study: Simili basin in Khuzestan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoseini, Yaser; Azari, Arash; Pilpayeh, Alireza

    2016-10-01

    It is of high importance to determine the flood discharge of different basins, in studies on water resources. However, it is necessary to use new models to determine flood hydrograph parameters. Therefore, it will be beneficial to conduct studies to calibrate the models, keeping in mind the local conditions of different regions. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the peak flood discharge of a basin located in Southwest Iran, using the TR-20, TR55, and HEC-1 methods of the WMS model (watershed modeling system). The obtained results were compared with empirical values, as well as those of the soil conservation service (SCS) approach. Based on the results obtained, the TR55 method of the WMS model recorded the highest agreement with empirical values in Southwest Iran.

  18. A Case Study of a Double-Moment Cloud Microphysics Parameterization in Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Ackerman, T. P.; Morrison, H.

    2010-12-01

    The double-moment microphysics parameterization used in this study predicts both the number concentration and the mixing ratio for five hydrometeor species: cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow and graupel along with the mass mixing ratio of water vapor. With the explicitly predicted hydrometeor number concentration, we expect the double-moment microphysics scheme to improve the simulation of microphysical processes and the cloud properties. In this study, the double-moment microphysics scheme is utilized in a cloud resolving model (CRM), called the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM), to simulate the cloud evolution during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) 1997 summer Intensive Observations Period. In particular, we performed sensitivity studies of parameters such as the terminal fall velocity of the three ice species and ice-to-snow “autoconversion” threshold. For example, increasing the fall speed of pristine ice particles reduces the cloud amount at higher altitude and agrees better with the ARM ground-based cloud radar observations although the model still overestimates the high cloud amount. Increasing the fall velocity of snow and graupel can decrease the high cloud amount but is less effective. We also considered the impact of the model inherent uncertainty on the interpretation of microphysics sensitivity studies by performing ensemble runs with the same model configuration and large scale forcing but only varying initial soundings.

  19. Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Jeffrey C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; McKenna, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed

  20. Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: A case study on the Upper Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Jeffrey C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; McKenna, James E.

    2014-11-01

    Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58-1.311, NSE = 0.99-0.97, d = 0.98-0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = -0.10 to -1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed well; the

  1. Remote Sensing Data in Wind Velocity Field Modelling: a Case Study from the Sudetes (SW Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jancewicz, Kacper

    2014-06-01

    The phenomena of wind-field deformation above complex (mountainous) terrain is a popular subject of research related to numerical modelling using GIS techniques. This type of modelling requires, as input data, information on terrain roughness and a digital terrain/elevation model. This information may be provided by remote sensing data. Consequently, its accuracy and spatial resolution may affect the results of modelling. This paper represents an attempt to conduct wind-field modelling in the area of the Śnieżnik Massif (Eastern Sudetes). The modelling process was conducted in WindStation 2.0.10 software (using the computable fluid dynamics solver Canyon). Two different elevation models were used: the Global Land Survey Digital Elevation Model (GLS DEM) and Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) Level 2. The terrain roughness raster was generated on the basis of Corine Land Cover 2006 (CLC 2006) data. The output data were post-processed in ArcInfo 9.3.1 software to achieve a high-quality cartographic presentation. Experimental modelling was conducted for situations from 26 November 2011, 25 May 2012, and 26 May 2012, based on a limited number of field measurements and using parameters of the atmosphere boundary layer derived from the aerological surveys provided by the closest meteorological stations. The model was run in a 100-m and 250-m spatial resolution. In order to verify the model's performance, leave-one-out cross-validation was used. The calculated indices allowed for a comparison with results of former studies pertaining to WindStation's performance. The experiment demonstrated very subtle differences between results in using DTED or GLS DEM elevation data. Additionally, CLC 2006 roughness data provided more noticeable improvements in the model's performance, but only in the resolution corresponding to the original roughness data. The best input data configuration resulted in the following mean values of error measure: root mean squared error of velocity

  2. Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective

  3. Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model: A case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhuanglin; Zhang, Honglu; Chien, Steven I-Jy; Wang, Jin; Dong, Chunjiao

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between crash frequency and potential influence factors, the accident data for events occurring on a 50km long expressway in China, including 567 crash records (2006-2008), were collected and analyzed. Both the fixed-length and the homogeneous longitudinal grade methods were applied to divide the study expressway section into segments. A negative binomial (NB) model and a random effect negative binomial (RENB) model were developed to predict crash frequency. The parameters of both models were determined using the maximum likelihood (ML) method, and the mixed stepwise procedure was applied to examine the significance of explanatory variables. Three explanatory variables, including longitudinal grade, road width, and ratio of longitudinal grade and curve radius (RGR), were found as significantly affecting crash frequency. The marginal effects of significant explanatory variables to the crash frequency were analyzed. The model performance was determined by the relative prediction error and the cumulative standardized residual. The results show that the RENB model outperforms the NB model. It was also found that the model performance with the fixed-length segment method is superior to that with the homogeneous longitudinal grade segment method.

  4. An Artificial Neural Network Model for Highway Accident Prediction: A Case Study of Erzurum, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Yasin Çodur

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an accident prediction model of Erzurum’s Highways in Turkey using artificial neural network (ANN approaches. There are many ANN models for predicting the number of accidents on highways that were developed using 8 years with 7,780 complete accident reports of historical data (2005-2012. The best ANN model was chosen for this task and the model parameters included years, highway sections, section length (km, annual average daily traffic (AADT, the degree of horizontal curvature, the degree of vertical curvature, traffic accidents with heavy vehicles (percentage, and traffic accidents that occurred in summer (percentage. In the ANN model development, the sigmoid activation function was employed with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The performance of the developed ANN model was evaluated by mean square error (MSE, the root mean square error (RMSE, and the coefficient of determination (R2. The model results indicate that the degree of vertical curvature is the most important parameter that affects the number of accidents on highways.

  5. Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

    2016-11-01

    Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

  6. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  7. Assessing monthly average solar radiation models: a comparative case study in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonmete, Mehmet H; Ertekin, Can; Menges, Hakan O; Hacıseferoğullari, Haydar; Evrendilek, Fatih

    2011-04-01

    Solar radiation data are required by solar engineers, architects, agriculturists, and hydrologists for many applications such as solar heating, cooking, drying, and interior illumination of buildings. In order to achieve this, numerous empirical models have been developed all over the world to predict solar radiation. The main objective of this study is to examine and compare 147 solar radiation models available in the literature for the prediction of monthly solar radiation at Ankara (Turkey) based on selected statistical measures such as percentage error, mean percentage error, root mean square error, mean bias error, and correlation coefficient. Our results showed that Ball et al. (Agron J 96:391-397, 2004) model and Chen et al. (Energy Convers Manag 47:2859-2866, 2006) model performed best in the estimation of solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Ankara.

  8. Simulation Modelling Approach to Human Resources Management: Burnout Effect Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Merkac Skok

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Human resources management has become one of the most important leverages in organizations for gaining competitive advantage. However, human resources management is in many occasions prone to nonlinear feedbacks with delayed effect. Burnout effect is one of the problems that are especially often faced by the experts in learning society. Burnout effect occurs because modern society is a fast-moving, achievement-oriented, very competitive and lead to many stressful situations, which individuals cannot handle always. We propose usage of system dynamics methodology in exploration of burnout effect, and its usage in learning of consequences of burnout effect. Several experiments have been conducted and presented which indicate increase and collapse behaviour in case of burnout experience by the individual. Experiments with the model explore the presence of burnout effect in several different situations, with different pace of its manifestations.

  9. Competing With the Use of Business Model innovation - an Exploratory Case Study of the Journey of Born Global Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene Johansson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.

  10. Remotely sensed latent heat fluxes for improving model predictions of soil moisture: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Schuurmans

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether the use of remotely sensed latent heat fluxes improves the accuracy of spatially-distributed soil moisture predictions by a hydrological model. By using real data we aim to show the potential and limitations in practice. We use (i satellite data of both ASTER and MODIS for the same two days in the summer of 2006 that, in association with the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL, provides us the spatial distribution of daily ETact and (ii an operational physically based distributed (25 m×25 m hydrological model of a small catchment (70 km2 in The Netherlands that simulates the water flow in both the unsaturated and saturated zone. Firstly, model outcomes of ETact are compared to the processed satellite data. Secondly, we perform data assimilation that updates the modelled soil moisture. We show that remotely sensed ETact is useful in hydrological modelling for two reasons. Firstly, in the procedure of model calibration: comparison of modeled and remotely sensed ETact together with the outcomes of our data assimilation procedure points out potential model errors (both conceptual and flux-related. Secondly, assimilation of remotely sensed ETact results in a realistic spatial adjustment of soil moisture, except for the area with forest and deep groundwater levels. As both ASTER and MODIS images were available for the same days, this study provides also an excellent opportunity to compare the worth of these two satellite sources. It is shown that, although ASTER provides much better insight in the spatial distribution of ETact due to its higher spatial resolution than MODIS, they appeared in this study just as useful.

  11. Assessment of Satellite-based Precipitation Products (TRMM) in Hydrologic Modeling: Case Studies from Northern Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    EL kadiri, R.; Milewski, A.; Durham, M.

    2012-12-01

    the coast, and (3) the averaging of many local rain-fall events within an area of 0.25° to 0.25°. The potential for using publicly available remote sensing datasets in lieu of field gauges in data sparse and inaccessible regions is clear. This will address one of the major difficulties facing hydrologists while constructing representative rainfall runoff models in the absence of field data as it is the case of most of North African watersheds.

  12. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieger, Khara D; Hansen, Steffen F; Sørensen, Peter B; Baun, Anders

    2011-09-01

    Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future, especially given the vast variety and complexity of nanomaterials and their applications. As an approach to help optimize environmental risk assessments of nanomaterials, we apply the Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model to identify best estimates for worst-case conditions of environmental risks of two case studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C(60) in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C(60) in these applications as well as demonstrate the use of worst-case conditions to optimize future research efforts for other nanomaterials. Through the application of the WCD model, we find that the most probable worst-case conditions for both case studies include i) active uptake mechanisms, ii) accumulation in organisms, iii) ecotoxicological response mechanisms such as reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell membrane damage or disruption, iv) surface properties of nZVI and C(60), and v) acute exposure tolerance of organisms. Additional estimates of worst-case conditions for C(60) also include the physical location of C(60) in the environment from surface run-off, cellular exposure routes for heterotrophic organisms, and the presence of light to amplify adverse effects. Based on results of this analysis, we recommend the prioritization of research for the selected applications within the following areas: organism active uptake ability of nZVI and C(60) and ecotoxicological response end-points and response mechanisms including ROS production and cell membrane damage, full nanomaterial characterization taking

  13. A mathematical model for process cycle time - theory and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Tošenovský

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on derivation of a regression model which describes dependence of process cycle time on relevant factors entering the process. The analyzed processes are typical in that the coefficient of variation of times corresponding to a given level of influential factors remains stable if the level of the factors change. The derived model is subsequently applied to real industrial data which show that such a model is suitable for the description of relations. The paper has been published with support of Slovak Ministry of Education project KEGA 3/6411/08 „Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to an university-wide bilingual study programme“.

  14. A STUDY ON DEFENSE ACQUISITION MODELS WITH AN EMERGING MARKET PERSPECTIVE. THE CASE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Kemal Topcu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With the end of the Cold War, the static environment, characteristic of the bipolar world, has changed quickly into a dynamic and complicated environment with new actors. These changes have also affected the countries’ armed forces and new approaches to procurement/acquisition come into progress. After the Cold War, countries have focused on responding to changing threats with their decreasing defense budgets. In this study, acquisition models and their effects on Turkey’s technology acquisition and defense industry are evaluated. The evaluation is performed based on criteria such as contribution to national economy, customization, acquisition cost, time and risk, life cycle cost, and technology acquisition. Major acquisition models in this study are determined as direct procurement, production under license, joint venture, indigenous development, production via international consortium. Finally, it is observed that the best model is indigenous development while the others will serve as technology acquisition for indigenous development.

  15. Proposed model to study the economic impact of bovine brucellosis and tuberculosis: Case study of Pirassununga, SP, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valéria Stacchini Ferreira Homem

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Following the recent implementation of the National Program for the Control and Eradication of Brucellosis and Tuberculosis (PNCEBT, and the lack of economic research on animal health in Brazil, we created a model to estimate the economic impact of brucellosis and tuberculosis on livestock production, using the municipality of Pirassununga/SP as a case study. The first part of our study consisted of a literature review of the estimates of losses caused by the two diseases. The impact on production was converted into economic losses, also represented by monetary values, using secondary references from 2003. The losses were calculated for the entire municipality and took into account the actual prevalence of disease in the animals, and the type of disease in each of the affected properties. The results revealed the annual losses in Pirassununga, which, at the time of the study, were as high as R$ 132,676.23 for brucellosis (updated value by the IGP-M: R$273,407.43, and between R$192,500.00 and R$ 430,252.00 for tuberculosis (values updated by the IGP-M: R$ 396,686.97 and R$ 886,825.25. These results suggest that these diseases had a significant impact on livestock production in the municipality of Pirassununga. The impacts they have on agriculture, and the economy, should be rapidly be communicated throughout Brazil because this information will significantly improve the management of veterinary sanitary processes.

  16. Groundwater flow model management and case studies in Emilia-Romagna (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chahoud

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of groundwater modeling to support the planning and management of water resources is a possible goal of a long and detailed course of study and research. The present work concerns some applications carried out within the aquifers of the Emilia-Romagna plain in northern Italy. The main features of the developed and available mathematical models are reported as well as the geological and hydrogeological description of the analyzed aquifers. The main operational choices that have characterized the implementation of all models and their continuous development and updating are discussed. Activity has been focused to maintain active the data stream between the models to improve their functionality along with time to give a basis for models management. Models have been used in different applications which indicate the potential for their use with targeted objectives of planning and management. Two examples at two different scales are given: the first shows the application to the entire aquifer of the Emilia-Romagna region, which has been able to adapt simulations to new groundwater bodies defined in accordance with 2000/60/EC directive, the current regulatory framework for the planning of water resources. This framework provides for the establishment of programs of measures whose level of effectiveness can be estimated with the support of models. The second concerns a more detailed scale model in reference to a specific evaluation of feasibility of an intervention of artificial recharge. The management approach used here is the result of over 10 years development and application and now allows to apply numerical models in a role of systematic service in support of the institutions involved in planning and management of groundwater resources.

  17. Functional and Structural Optimality in Plant Growth: A Crop Modelling Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldararu, S.; Purves, D. W.; Smith, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Simple mechanistic models of vegetation processes are essential both to our understanding of plant behaviour and to our ability to predict future changes in vegetation. One concept that can take us closer to such models is that of plant optimality, the hypothesis that plants aim to achieve an optimal state. Conceptually, plant optimality can be either structural or functional optimality. A structural constraint would mean that plants aim to achieve a certain structural characteristic such as an allometric relationship or nutrient content that allows optimal function. A functional condition refers to plants achieving optimal functionality, in most cases by maximising carbon gain. Functional optimality conditions are applied on shorter time scales and lead to higher plasticity, making plants more adaptable to changes in their environment. In contrast, structural constraints are optimal given the specific environmental conditions that plants are adapted to and offer less flexibility. We exemplify these concepts using a simple model of crop growth. The model represents annual cycles of growth from sowing date to harvest, including both vegetative and reproductive growth and phenology. Structural constraints to growth are represented as an optimal C:N ratio in all plant organs, which drives allocation throughout the vegetative growing stage. Reproductive phenology - i.e. the onset of flowering and grain filling - is determined by a functional optimality condition in the form of maximising final seed mass, so that vegetative growth stops when the plant reaches maximum nitrogen or carbon uptake. We investigate the plants' response to variations in environmental conditions within these two optimality constraints and show that final yield is most affected by changes during vegetative growth which affect the structural constraint.

  18. Prospective Elementary Teachers' Perceptions of the Processes of Modeling: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazio, Claudio; Di Paola, Benedetto; Guastella, Ivan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an "a priori" analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics…

  19. Presenting a Practical Model of Reinforcing Spiritual Leadership in Educational Institutes (A Case Study)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghizadeh, Houshang; Shokri, Abdolhossein

    2015-01-01

    The present study seeks to identify the relation between the components of spiritual leadership and to present a practical model to reinforce the spiritual leadership in Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University. The research is of descriptive type, and the statistical population consists of all the official personnel of Tabriz Branch. The research…

  20. Understanding a Generative Learning Model of Instruction: A Case Study of Elementary Teacher Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flick, Lawrence B.

    1996-01-01

    Reasons for not using generative learning or inquiry-oriented strategies in teaching include the fact that it takes too much time to develop appropriate materials and the instructional pace is too slow. This research studies the thinking of elementary teachers concerning a generative learning model of instruction as they developed unit plans for…

  1. Field-scale water flow and solute transport : Swap model concepts, parameter estimation and case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van J.C.

    2000-01-01

    Water flow and solute transport in top soils are important elements in many environmental studies. The agro- and ecohydrological model SWAP (Soil-Water-Plant-Atmosphere) has been developed to simulate simultaneously water flow, solute transport, heat flow and crop growth at field scale level. The ma

  2. Overview of the Case Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    A series of case studies are used to illustrate many of the underlying modelling principles within the book. To facilitate this, the ICAS-MoT modelling tool has been used. A wide range of application areas have been chosen to ensure that the principal concepts of effective and efficient modelling...

  3. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

  4. Re-aeration Coefficient Modeling: A Case Study of River Atuwara in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.O. Omole

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A study of the self purification capacity of River Atuwara was done with the aim of developing a reaeration coefficient model, k2, for the river. The k2 model was evaluated and validated by comparing its performance with the Streeter-Phelps and Agunwamba models. Atuwara model was developed using non-linear regression while its performance was checked by the use of statistical and graphical parameters. The model gave the best dissolved oxygen predictive capacity in comparison with other models when used with the modified Streeter-Phelps equation in spite of the limitations imposed on it by the sinusoidal shape of the dissolved oxygen recovery curve caused by frequent interruptions in the recovery processes of the river system. It is also of note that due to its importance to human and aquatic life sustenance, the natural recovery processes of River Atuwara from frequent pollution loads could only be enhanced through an effective monitoring and regulation of effluent discharges into it by the Ogun State Environmental Protection Agency.

  5. An Electromyographic-driven Musculoskeletal Torque Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System Identification: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Zohreh; Edrisi, Mehdi; Marateb, Hamid Reza

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the torque from high-density surface electromyography signals of biceps brachii, brachioradialis, and the medial and lateral heads of triceps brachii muscles during moderate-to-high isometric elbow flexion-extension. The elbow torque was estimated in two following steps: First, surface electromyography (EMG) amplitudes were estimated using principal component analysis, and then a fuzzy model was proposed to illustrate the relationship between the EMG amplitudes and the measured torque signal. A neuro-fuzzy method, with which the optimum number of rules could be estimated, was used to identify the model with suitable complexity. Utilizing the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, the clinical interpretability was introduced; contrary to the previous linear and nonlinear black-box system identification models. It also reduced the estimation error compared with that of the most recent and accurate nonlinear dynamic model introduced in the literature. The optimum number of the rules for all trials was 4 ± 1, that might be related to motor control strategies and the % variance accounted for criterion was 96.40 ± 3.38 which in fact showed considerable improvement compared with the previous methods. The proposed method is thus a promising new tool for EMG-Torque modeling in clinical applications.

  6. Conceptualization and development of the Household/Neighborhood Model for skilled nursing facilities: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Arthur Green

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The conceptualization of the Household/Neighborhood Model for skilled nursing facilities began in 1987 at Evergreen Retirement Community in Oshkosh, WI, USA in the search for the “perfect” nursing home. Being able to see perfection required being freed from the mental constraints of regulations, reimbursement systems, and existing staff training programs so that visionary thinking was possible. Conceptualization was followed by a pilot project to test various aspects of the vision. The result was (1 a management philosophy built on Continuous Quality Improvement, (2 a team-based organization structure, (3 cross-functional staff roles, (4 social-model activity programming, and (5 a residential style physical setting that won strong support from the State of Wisconsin. With this support, we had the opportunity to open in 1997 the first full-scale model of a Household/Neighborhood in the United States based upon providing “resident and relationship centered services and care”. The model was validated through a year-long evaluative research study. In 2004 we opened a second full-scale model incorporating significant improvements identified through experience. The opportunity to further develop the model has been provided through its adoption in China by China Senior Care, which will open their first facility in 2014.

  7. The evolution of network-based business models illustrated through the case study of an entrepreneurship project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Nielsen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    : This paper illustrates how a network-based business model arises and evolves and how the forces of a network structure impact the development of its partner relationships. The contribution of this article is to understanding how partners positioned around a business model can be organized into a network......-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers......’s strategic partners and how a how a business model can evolve in a series of distinct phases...

  8. Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeller, K.A.; Nijhawan, S.; Salom-Perez, R.; Potosme, S.H.; Hines, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar (Panthera onca). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6. ??. 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82-100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining 'proportion of area occupied', we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as 'probability of habitat used'. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Succinate overproduction: A case study of computational strain design using a comprehensive Escherichia coli kinetic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali eKhodayari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational strain design prediction accuracy has been the focus for many recent efforts through the selective integration of kinetic information into metabolic models. In general, kinetic model prediction quality is determined by the range and scope of genetic and/or environmental perturbations used during parameterization. In this effort, we apply the k-OptForce procedure on a kinetic model of E. coli core metabolism constructed using the Ensemble Modeling (EM method and parameterized using multiple mutant strains data under aerobic respiration with glucose as the carbon source. Minimal interventions are identified that improve succinate yield under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions to test the fidelity of model predictions under both genetic and environmental perturbations. Under aerobic condition, k-OptForce identifies interventions that match existing experimental strategies pointing at a number of unexplored flux redirections such as routing glyoxylate flux through the glycerate metabolism to improve succinate yield. Many of the identified interventions rely on the kinetic descriptions and would not be discoverable by a purely stoichiometric description. In contrast, under fermentative (anaerobic conditions, k-OptForce fails to identify key interventions including up-regulation of anaplerotic reactions and elimination of competitive fermentative products. This is due to the fact that the pathways activated under anaerobic conditions were not properly parameterized as only aerobic flux data were used in the model construction. This study shed light on the importance of condition-specific model parameterization and provides insight onto how to augment kinetic models so as to correctly respond to multiple environmental perturbations.

  10. Succinate Overproduction: A Case Study of Computational Strain Design Using a Comprehensive Escherichia coli Kinetic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodayari, Ali; Chowdhury, Anupam; Maranas, Costas D

    2014-01-01

    Computational strain-design prediction accuracy has been the focus for many recent efforts through the selective integration of kinetic information into metabolic models. In general, kinetic model prediction quality is determined by the range and scope of genetic and/or environmental perturbations used during parameterization. In this effort, we apply the k-OptForce procedure on a kinetic model of E. coli core metabolism constructed using the Ensemble Modeling (EM) method and parameterized using multiple mutant strains data under aerobic respiration with glucose as the carbon source. Minimal interventions are identified that improve succinate yield under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions to test the fidelity of model predictions under both genetic and environmental perturbations. Under aerobic condition, k-OptForce identifies interventions that match existing experimental strategies while pointing at a number of unexplored flux re-directions such as routing glyoxylate flux through the glycerate metabolism to improve succinate yield. Many of the identified interventions rely on the kinetic descriptions that would not be discoverable by a purely stoichiometric description. In contrast, under fermentative (anaerobic) condition, k-OptForce fails to identify key interventions including up-regulation of anaplerotic reactions and elimination of competitive fermentative products. This is due to the fact that the pathways activated under anaerobic condition were not properly parameterized as only aerobic flux data were used in the model construction. This study shed light on the importance of condition-specific model parameterization and provides insight on how to augment kinetic models so as to correctly respond to multiple environmental perturbations.

  11. Model for determining logistic distribution center: case study of Mount Merapi eruption disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, T. J.; Wigati, S. S.

    2017-01-01

    As one of the most active volcano in the earth, Mount Merapi is periodically erupted and it is considered as a natural disaster for the surrounding area. Kabupaten Sleman as one of the nearest location to this mount has to be always prepared to this disaster. The local government already set three different groups of region, in which potentially affected by Mount Merapi eruption, called KRB I, KRB II, and KRB III. Region KRB III is the closest area to the mount crater and most often affected by the eruption disaster. Whenever KRB III is affected, people live in that area usually being transfer to the next region set that is KRB II. The case presented in this paper is located at the KRB II region, which is the second closest region to the mount crater. A humanitarian distribution system has to be set in this region, since usually this region is became the location of shelters for KRB III population whenever a ‘big’ eruption is happened. A mathematical model is proposed in this paper, for determining the location of distribution center, vehicle route, and the amount of goods delivered to each customer. Some numerical illustration are presented in order to know the behavior of the proposed model.

  12. Calibrating a flow model in an irrigation network: Case study in Alicante, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modesto Pérez-Sánchez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The usefulness of models depends on their validation in a calibration process, ensuring that simulated flows and pressure values in any line are really occurring and, therefore, becoming a powerful decision tool for many aspects in the network management (i.e., selection of hydraulic machines in pumped systems, reduction of the installed power in operation, analysis of theoretical energy recovery. A new proposed method to assign consumptions patterns and to determine flows over time in irrigation networks is calibrated in the present research. As novelty, the present paper proposes a robust calibration strategy for flow assignment in lines, based on some key performance indicators (KPIF coming from traditional hydrological models: Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (non-dimensional index, root relative square error (error index and percent bias (tendency index. The proposed strategy for calibration was applied to a real case in Alicante (Spain, with a goodness of fit considered as “very good” in many indicators. KPIF parameters observed present a satisfactory goodness of fit of the series, considering their repeatability. Average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value oscillated between 0.30 and 0.63, average percent bias values were below 10% in all the range, and average root relative square error values varied between 0.65 and 0.80.

  13. One-dimensional ocean model with three types of vertical velocities: a case study in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Han, Lu; Jiang, Yuwu

    2017-01-01

    In this research, three vertical velocities were included in a one-dimensional (1D) ocean model for a case study of the SouthEast Asian Time-Series Study station in the South China Sea. The vertical velocities consisted three processes, i.e., Ekman pumping (WEK), Eddy pumping (WEP), and the background upwelling (WBK). The quantification of WEK followed the classical Ekman pumping theory. The WEP, whose underlying mechanism was consistent with the baroclinic modes (dominated by the first mode), was quantified by Argo observation and altimetry data. The WBK, related with the background circulation, was estimated from the long-term heat budget balance. The skill assessment indicated that the case with all three processes performed best. The study confirmed the capability of the 1D model with three types of vertical velocities, which can reproduce the general structure and variation of temperature in vertical direction.

  14. Validation of PV performance models using satellite-based irradiance measurements : a case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Parkins, Andrew (Clean Power Research); Perez, Richard (University at Albany)

    2010-05-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance models are relied upon to provide accurate predictions of energy production for proposed and existing PV systems under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Ground based meteorological measurements are only available from a relatively small number of locations. In contrast, satellite-based radiation and weather data (e.g., SUNY database) are becoming increasingly available for most locations in North America, Europe, and Asia on a 10 x 10 km grid or better. This paper presents a study of how PV performance model results are affected when satellite-based weather data is used in place of ground-based measurements.

  15. Mathematical Modeling of Self- Purification Capacity of Surface Currents. Study Case: Portoviejo River, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Santiago Quiroz Fernández

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available It is proposed a phenomenological model to describe the behavior of oxygen concentration with respect to distance from wastewater loading into the river. It taken into account processes associated with con-taminants biodegradation and oxygen transfer through interface air-water. The model was used to study contamination of Portoviejo River, Manabí, Ecuador. Experimental results were adjusted to an approx-imate solution of the obtained no-linear equations system, and it was possible to estimate parameters which are related with the capacity of self-purification of two river zones. 

  16. Security Architectures for Model Driven Web Requirements – Financial Application Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V.Krishna Prasad

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available MDA with executable UML offers an approach that embodies all the key ingredients of the process for developing dependable systems, by offering: A uniform strategy for preserving investment in existing models built using unsupported tools, by automatically migrating them to profiled UML models for subsequent maintenance and development using state of the art UML tools; A clean separation of application behavior from the platform specific implementation using technologies such as Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA, allowing the full potential of IMA to be realized in a consistent and dependable way; A semantically well defined formalism that can be used a basis for modular certification of safety related systems; The ability to generate not only the components of the target system, but components of development tool chain, providing scope for model translation and offering “executable specifications” that can be tested early and mapped reliably onto the target, leading to greater levels of dependency. MDA is a new approach for most organizations, and therefore carries additional training and learning curve costs and also currently the availability of production quality code generators is currently limited. MDA requires developers to work at a more abstract level than code although experience shows that most do not have any difficulty making the adjustment, there will be some who find this change of emphasis difficult to achieve. Building upon the initial success of MDA deployment so far, work is now proceeding on the enhancement of Ada code mapping rules to cover the entire xUML formalism. Work is also underway to develop a generic “adapter/router”component to provide a standard component to provide a standard way to interface re-engineered xUML components with pre-existing components. These techniques are now being applied to another avionics system in the same organization, in response to the customers need for a faster and cheaper upgrade

  17. Evaluation and analysis of urban public spaces using TOPSIS model (Case Study: Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.R. Poormohammadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Extended abstract 1- IntroductionPublic spaces, which belong to all the individuals of different ages, occupations, cultures, and races with no restriction, are one of the most important parts in a city. Today, the importance of the studies on these spaces, considering the needs of the citizens, is more evident. Study and evaluation of urban public spaces, is an urgent necessity in planning the urban management and improvement, and it is a sign of the reproduction of these spaces which is done to improve the city in cultural, social and structural aspects. The approach to the study of these spaces includes 3 perspectives that are considered problems in literature related to urban society: a Surfaces or areas devoted to public occupancy: the discussion here is the fact that how much of the general net area is devoted to public occupancy. b Distribution of these spaces over the city: In this part, the dispersion and accumulation of each one of the public occupancies in a specific area, is compared to its standard ratio. The purpose of researching and studying urban public spaces (in this case, Tabriz is as follows: a Evaluation of quantitative status of public spaces in Tabriz; b Analyzing the settlement of public spaces in Tabriz and the dispersion of these areas; c Comparing the different public spaces in distinct regions of Tabriz; d Presenting required strategies to improve the general status of public spaces in Tabriz. The following research discusses these two assumptions: a There is a meaningful relationship between the area and per capita public space in Tabriz and the current existing standards of the country; b There is a meaningful difference between different regions of the city in terms of development. The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical. Statistical research population is the city of Tabriz which, based on the general pattern of the city, is divided into 9 urban areas. Evaluation of urban public spaces of the

  18. Prediction using patient comparison vs. modeling: a case study for mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; El Hassouni, Ali; Mok, Kwongyen; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Information in Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to generate accurate predictions for the occurrence of a variety of health states, which can contribute to more pro-active interventions. The very nature of EMRs does make the application of off-the-shelf machine learning techniques difficult. In this paper, we study two approaches to making predictions that have hardly been compared in the past: (1) extracting high-level (temporal) features from EMRs and building a predictive model, and (2) defining a patient similarity metric and predicting based on the outcome observed for similar patients. We analyze and compare both approaches on the MIMIC-II ICU dataset to predict patient mortality and find that the patient similarity approach does not scale well and results in a less accurate model (AUC of 0.68) compared to the modeling approach (0.84). We also show that mortality can be predicted within a median of 72 hours.

  19. Forecasting Paratransit Utility by Using Multinomial Logit Model: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waikhom Victory

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Paratransit plays an important role in the urban passenger transportation system in the developing countries. Three cities viz. Imphal East, Imphal West and Silchar in India have been undertaken for the study. Household survey and traffic survey have been employed to collect data for the paratransit users. Modelling techniques and tools also have been used to forecast the utility of paratransit in the region. For this purpose, a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL had been used. A total of seven variables were considered in the model estimation of which three are quantitative i.e. trip length (km, travel cost (rupees and travel time (minutes and four are qualitative variables i.e. reliability, comfort, road condition and convenience.

  20. Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

    2009-08-01

    This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

  1. STUDENT-DEFINED QUALITY BY KANO MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF ENGINEERING STUDENTS IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Wilson Taifa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Engineering Students in India like elsewhere worldwide need well designed classrooms furniture which can enable them to attend lectures without negative impact in the long run. Engineering students from India have not yet been involved in suggesting their requirements for improving the mostly out-dated furniture at their colleges. Among the available improvement techniques, Kano Model is one of the most effective improvement approaches. The main objective of the study was to identify and categorise all the main attributes regarding the classrooms furniture for the purpose of increasing student satisfaction in the long run. Kano Model has been well applied to make an exhaustive list of requirements for redesigning classroom furniture. Cronbach Alpha was computed with the help of SPSS 16.0 for validation purpose and it ranged between 0.8 and 0.9 which is a good internal consistency. Further research can be done by integrating Kano Model with Quality Function Deployment.

  2. REDUCING PROCESS VARIABILITY BY USING DMAIC MODEL: A CASE STUDY IN BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripon Kumar Chakrabortty

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Now-a-day's many leading manufacturing industry have started to practice Six Sigma and Lean manufacturing concepts to boost up their productivity as well as quality of products. In this paper, the Six Sigma approach has been used to reduce process variability of a food processing industry in Bangladesh. DMAIC (Define,Measure, Analyze, Improve, & Control model has been used to implement the Six Sigma Philosophy. Five phases of the model have been structured step by step respectively. Different tools of Total Quality Management, Statistical Quality Control and Lean Manufacturing concepts likely Quality function deployment, P Control chart, Fish-bone diagram, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Pareto analysis have been used in different phases of the DMAIC model. The process variability have been tried to reduce by identify the root cause of defects and reducing it. The ultimate goal of this study is to make the process lean and increase the level of sigma.

  3. Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models

  4. Modeling the Financial Distress of Microenterprise StartUps Using Support Vector Machines: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Blanco-Oliver

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the leading role that micro-entrepreneurship plays in economic development, and the high failure rate of microenterprise start-ups in their early years, very few studies have designed financial distress models to detect the financial problems of micro-entrepreneurs. Moreover, due to a lack of research, nothing is known about whether non-financial information and nonparametric statistical techniques improve the predictive capacity of these models. Therefore, this paper provides an innovative financial distress model specifically designed for microenterprise startups via support vector machines (SVMs that employs financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic variables. Based on a sample of almost 5,500 micro- entrepreneurs from a Peruvian Microfinance Institution (MFI, our findings show that the introduction of non-financial information related to the zone in which the entrepreneurs live and situate their business, the duration of the MFI-entrepreneur relationship, the number of loans granted by the MFI in the last year, the loan destination, and the opinion of experts on the probability that microenterprise start-ups may experience financial problems, significantly increases the accuracy performance of our financial distress model. Furthermore, the results reveal that the models that use SVMs outperform those which employ traditional logistic regression (LR analysis.

  5. Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Duner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare.Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations.Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

  6. Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Duner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare. Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations. Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

  7. Seismic wave propagation modeling in porous media for various frequencies: A case study in carbonate rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhandoko, Bagus Endar B.; Wardaya, Pongga Dikdya; Adler, John; Siahaan, Kisko R.

    2012-06-01

    Seismic wave parameter plays very important role to characterize reservoir properties whereas pore parameter is one of the most important parameter of reservoir. Therefore, wave propagation phenomena in pore media is important to be studied. By referring this study, in-direct pore measurement method based on seismic wave propagation can be developed. Porosity play important role in reservoir, because the porosity can be as compartment of fluid. Many type of porosity like primary as well as secondary porosity. Carbonate rock consist many type of porosity, i.e.: inter granular porosity, moldic porosity and also fracture porosity. The complexity of pore type in carbonate rocks make the wave propagation in these rocks is more complex than sand reservoir. We have studied numerically wave propagation in carbonate rock by finite difference modeling in time-space domain. The medium of wave propagation was modeled by base on the result of pattern recognition using artificial neural network. The image of thin slice of carbonate rock is then translated into the velocity matrix. Each mineral contents including pore of thin slice image are translated to velocity since mineral has unique velocity. After matrix velocity model has been developed, the seismic wave is propagated numerically in this model. The phenomena diffraction is clearly shown while wave propagates in this complex carbonate medium. The seismic wave is modeled in various frequencies. The result shows dispersive phenomena where high frequency wave tends to propagate in matrix instead pores. In the other hand, the low frequency waves tend to propagate through pore space even though the velocity of pore is very low. Therefore, this dispersive phenomena of seismic wave propagation can be the future indirect measurement technology for predicting the existence or intensity of pore space in reservoir rock. It will be very useful for the future reservoir characterization.

  8. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  9. PIO I-II tendencies case study. Part 1. Mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian TOADER

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, a study is performed from the perspective of giving a method to reduce the conservatism of the well known PIO (Pilot-Induced Oscillation criteria in predicting the susceptibility of an aircraft to this very harmful phenomenon. There are three interacting components of a PIO – the pilot, the vehicle, and the trigger (in fact, the hazard. The study, conceived in two parts, aims to underline the importance of human pilot model involved in analysis. In this first part, it is shown, following classical sources, how the LQG theory of control and estimation is used to obtain a complex model of human pilot. The approach is based on the argument, experimentally proved, that the human behaves “optimally” in some sense, subject to his inherent psychophysical limitations. The validation of such model is accomplished based on the experimental model of a VTOL-type aircraft. Then, the procedure of inserting typical saturation nonlinearities in the open loop transfer function is presented. A second part of the paper will illustrate PIO tendencies evaluation by means of a grapho-analytic method.

  10. A modelling case study of a large-scale cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podglajen, Aurélien; Plougonven, Riwal; Hertzog, Albert; Legras, Bernard

    2016-03-01

    We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to simulate a large-scale tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cirrus in order to understand the formation and life cycle of the cloud. This cirrus event has been previously described through satellite observations by Taylor et al. (2011). Comparisons of the simulated and observed cirrus show a fair agreement and validate the reference simulation regarding cloud extension, location and life time. The validated simulation is used to understand the causes of cloud formation. It is shown that several cirrus clouds successively form in the region due to adiabatic cooling and large-scale uplift rather than from convective anvils. The structure of the uplift is tied to the equatorial response (equatorial wave excitation) to a potential vorticity intrusion from the midlatitudes. Sensitivity tests are then performed to assess the relative importance of the choice of the microphysics parameterization and of the initial and boundary conditions. The initial dynamical conditions (wind and temperature) essentially control the horizontal location and area of the cloud. However, the choice of the microphysics scheme influences the ice water content and the cloud vertical position. Last, the fair agreement with the observations allows to estimate the cloud impact in the TTL in the simulations. The cirrus clouds have a small but not negligible impact on the radiative budget of the local TTL. However, for this particular case, the cloud radiative heating does not significantly influence the simulated dynamics. This result is due to (1) the lifetime of air parcels in the cloud system, which is too short to significantly influence the dynamics, and (2) the fact that induced vertical motions would be comparable to or smaller than the typical mesoscale motions present. Finally, the simulation also provides an estimate of the vertical redistribution of water by the cloud and the results emphasize the importance in our case of both

  11. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  12. Runoff simulation using distributed hydrological modeling approach, remote sensing and GIS techniques: A case study from an Indian agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, V. M.; Desai, V. R.; Gupta, M.; Jeyaram, A.; Murthy, Y. V. N. K.

    2012-07-01

    Distributed hydrological modeling has the capability of simulating distributed watershed basin processes, by dividing a heterogeneous and complex land surface divided into computational elements such as Hydrologic Response Units (HRU), grid cell or sub watersheds. The present study was taken up to simulate spatial hydrological processes from a case study area of Kansavati watershed in Purulia district of West Bengal, India having diverse geographical features using distributed hydrological modelling approach. In the present study, overland flow in terms of direct runoff from storm rainfall was computed using USDA Soil Conservation Services (SCS) curve number technique and subsequently it served as input to channel routing model. For channel flow routing, Muskingum-Cunge flood routing technique was used, specifically to route surface runoff from the different sub watershed outlet points to the outlet point of the watershed. Model parameters were derived for each grid cell either from remote sensing data or conventional maps under GIS environment. For distributed approach, validation show reasonable fit between the simulated and measured data and CMR value in all the cases is negative and ranges from -0.1 to - 0.3. Further, this study investigates the effect of cell size on runoff simulation for different grid cell sizes of 23, 46, 92, 184, 368, 736, 1472 m resolution. The difference between simulated and observed runoff values increases with the increase of grid size beyond 184 m more prominently. Further, this model can be used to evaluate futuristic water availability scenarios for an agricultural watershed in eastern India.

  13. A combined disease management and process modeling approach for assessing and improving care processes: a fall management case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Marjan; Westerhof, Richard; Eslami, Saied; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-10-01

    To propose a combined disease management and process modeling approach for evaluating and improving care processes, and demonstrate its usability and usefulness in a real-world fall management case study. We identified essential disease management related concepts and mapped them into explicit questions meant to expose areas for improvement in the respective care processes. We applied the disease management oriented questions to a process model of a comprehensive real world fall prevention and treatment program covering primary and secondary care. We relied on interviews and observations to complete the process models, which were captured in UML activity diagrams. A preliminary evaluation of the usability of our approach by gauging the experience of the modeler and an external validator was conducted, and the usefulness of the method was evaluated by gathering feedback from stakeholders at an invitational conference of 75 attendees. The process model of the fall management program was organized around the clinical tasks of case finding, risk profiling, decision making, coordination and interventions. Applying the disease management questions to the process models exposed weaknesses in the process including: absence of program ownership, under-detection of falls in primary care, and lack of efficient communication among stakeholders due to missing awareness about other stakeholders' workflow. The modelers experienced the approach as usable and the attendees of the invitational conference found the analysis results to be valid. The proposed disease management view of process modeling was usable and useful for systematically identifying areas of improvement in a fall management program. Although specifically applied to fall management, we believe our case study is characteristic of various disease management settings, suggesting the wider applicability of the approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: a case study on Lena River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, André; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A R; Vilar, Vítor J P

    2014-07-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km(2) watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between -26% and 23% for calibration and -30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms.

  15. Case Study: Sensitivity Analysis of the Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model1 by S. Kyle McKay2 and J. Craig Fischenich3 OVERVIEW: Sensitivity analysis is a technique for...relevance of questions posed during an Independent External Peer Review (IEPR). BARATARIA BASIN BARRIER SHORELINE (BBBS) STUDY: On average...scale restoration projects to reduce marsh loss and maintain these wetlands as healthy functioning ecosystems. The Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline

  16. Urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 in prediction mode - evaluation of model performance based on the case study of Vienna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollosi, Brigitta; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja

    2017-04-01

    To reduce negative health impacts of extreme heat load in urban areas is the application of early warning systems that use weather forecast models to predict forthcoming heat events of utmost importance. In the state-of-the-art operational heat warning systems the meteorological information relies on the weather forecast from the regional numerical models and monitoring stations that do not include details of urban structure. In this study, the dynamical urban climate model MUKLIMO3 (horizontal resolution of 100 - 200 m) is initialized with the vertical profiles from the archived daily forecast data of the ZAMG from the hydrostatic ALARO numerical weather prediction model run at 0600 UTC to simulate the development of the urban heat island in Vienna on a daily basis. The aim is to evaluate the performance of the urban climate model, so far applied only for climatological studies, in a weather prediction mode using the summer period 2011-2015 as a test period. The focus of the investigation is on assessment of the urban heat load during the day-time. The model output has been evaluated against the monitoring data at the weather stations in the area of the city. The model results for daily maximum temperature show good agreement with the observations, especially at the urban and suburban stations where the mean bias is low. The results are highly dependent on the input data from the meso-scale model that leads to larger deviation from observations if the prediction is not representative for the given day. This study can be used to support urban planning strategies and to improve existing practices to alert decision-makers and the public to impending dangers of excessive heat.

  17. Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

    2014-10-01

    Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  18. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  19. Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Sundara Kumar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC were considered to use in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4- LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model have been generated apart from rainfall potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The coefficient of determination R2 value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin

  20. A workflow example of PBPK modeling to support pediatric research and development: case study with lorazepam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maharaj, A R; Barrett, J S; Edginton, A N

    2013-04-01

    The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in the field of pediatric drug development has garnered much interest of late due to a recent Food and Drug Administration recommendation. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the developmental processes involved in creation of a pediatric PBPK model incorporating existing adult drug data. Lorazepam, a benzodiazepine utilized in both adults and children, was used as an example. A population-PBPK model was developed in PK-Sim v4.2® and scaled to account for age-related changes in size and composition of tissue compartments, protein binding, and growth/maturation of elimination processes. Dose (milligrams per kilogram) requirements for children aged 0-18 years were calculated based on simulations that achieved targeted exposures based on adult references. Predictive accuracy of the PBPK model for producing comparable plasma concentrations among 63 pediatric subjects was assessed using average-fold error (AFE). Estimates of clearance (CL) and volume of distribution (V(ss)) were compared with observed values for a subset of 15 children using fold error (FE). Pediatric dose requirements in young children (1-3 years) exceeded adult levels on a linear weight-adjusted (milligrams per kilogram) basis. AFE values for model-derived concentration estimates were within 1.5- and 2-fold deviation from observed values for 73% and 92% of patients, respectively. For CL, 60% and 80% of predictions were within 1.5 and 2 FE, respectively. Comparatively, predictions of V(ss) were more accurate with 80% and 100% of estimates within 1.5 and 2 FE, respectively. Using the presented workflow, the developed pediatric model estimated lorazepam pharmacokinetics in children as a function of age.

  1. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Claudie; Cole, Harriet; Henson, Stephanie; Yool, Andrew; Anderson, Tom; de Mora, Lee; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Butenschön, Momme; Totterdell, Ian J.; Icarus Allen, J.

    2016-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed-layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our results show that some ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, manifested as an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. Models from low to intermediate complexity simulate an abrupt transition in the late 1970s (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next) while the transition is smoother in higher complexity models. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region. These models can therefore be considered useful tools to enhance our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.

  2. A Novel Approach for Assessing the Performance of Sustainable Urbanization Based on Structural Equation Modeling: A China Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liudan Jiao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The rapid urbanization process has brought problems to China, such as traffic congestion, air pollution, water pollution and resources scarcity. Sustainable urbanization is commonly appreciated as an effective way to promote the sustainable development. The proper understanding of the sustainable urbanization performance is critical to provide governments with support in making urban development strategies and policies for guiding the sustainable development. This paper utilizes the method of Structural equation modeling (SEM to establish an assessment model for measuring sustainable urbanization performance. Four unobserved endogenous variables, economic variable, social variable, environment variable and resource variable, and 21 observed endogenous variables comprise the SEM model. A case study of the 31 provinces in China demonstrates the validity of the SEM model and the analysis results indicated that the assessment model could help make more effective policies and strategies for improving urban sustainability by recognizing the statue of sustainable urbanization.

  3. Application of MM5/CMAQ for modelling urban air pollution a case study for London, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitwiroon, N.; Fragkou, E.; Sokhi, R. S.; San Jose, R.; Pérez Camaño, J. L.; Middleton, D.

    2003-04-01

    Urban air pollution has been particularly studied for the last few decades because of its recognised environmental dangers and health implications. The complexity of the urban surface characteristics and turbulence patterns has dictated the use of numerical models by environmental research agencies and regulators in order to predict and manage urban air pollution. However, most of these models are not specifically adapted to urban applications and normally do not include detailed urban parameterisation, such as for surface roughness or urban heat fluxes. Flow structure and dispersion of air pollutants within cities, however, are influenced by urban features such as increased surface roughness. This paper presents a study using MM5 and CMAQ to assess the effect of urban boundary layer features on meteorological parameters, and hence London's air quality. MM5 is a non-hydrostatic (version 3), terrain-following sigma-coordinate model designed to simulate mesoscale and regional-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper employs an improved surface roughness treatment on meteorological profiles and pollution dispersion. A surface roughness scale has been developed for London and the surrounding region. The land cover data was derived from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) data, with a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 m. These z_o values are employed with MM5 for modelling meteorological parameters over London, covering an inner domain area of 49 × 49 km. The outputs of MM5 have been coupled to CMAQ photochemical model to predict concentrations of particles, NO_2 and O_3 for London and the surrounding regions at a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km. The predicted concentrations have been compared with monitored data obtained from a range of national air quality monitoring sites including Central London (Bloomsbury, Brent), East London (Bexley) and West London (Hillingdon). Comparison of hourly model predictions with measured data is made for pollution levels for

  4. Predictive performance of three multivariate difficult tracheal intubation models: a double-blind, case-controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naguib, Mohamed; Scamman, Franklin L; O'Sullivan, Cormac; Aker, John; Ross, Alan F; Kosmach, Steven; Ensor, Joe E

    2006-03-01

    We performed a case-controlled, double-blind study to examine the performance of three multivariate clinical models (Wilson, Arné, and Naguib models) in the prediction of unanticipated difficult intubation. The study group consisted of 97 patients in whom an unanticipated difficult intubation had occurred. For each difficult intubation patient, a matched control patient was selected in whom tracheal intubation had been easily accomplished. Postoperatively, a blinded investigator evaluated both patients. The clinical assessment included the patient's weight, height, age, Mallampati score, interincisor gap, thyromental distance, thyrosternal distance, neck circumference, Wilson risk sum score, history of previous difficult intubation, and diseases associated with difficult laryngoscopy or intubation. The Naguib model was significantly more sensitive (81.4%; P thyromental distance, Mallampati score, interincisor gap, and height. This model is 82.5% sensitive and 85.6% specific with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90.

  5. Modelling metabolic evolution on phenotypic fitness landscapes: a case study on C4 photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckmann, David

    2015-12-01

    How did the complex metabolic systems we observe today evolve through adaptive evolution? The fitness landscape is the theoretical framework to answer this question. Since experimental data on natural fitness landscapes is scarce, computational models are a valuable tool to predict landscape topologies and evolutionary trajectories. Careful assumptions about the genetic and phenotypic features of the system under study can simplify the design of such models significantly. The analysis of C4 photosynthesis evolution provides an example for accurate predictions based on the phenotypic fitness landscape of a complex metabolic trait. The C4 pathway evolved multiple times from the ancestral C3 pathway and models predict a smooth 'Mount Fuji' landscape accordingly. The modelled phenotypic landscape implies evolutionary trajectories that agree with data on modern intermediate species, indicating that evolution can be predicted based on the phenotypic fitness landscape. Future directions will have to include structural changes of metabolic fitness landscape structure with changing environments. This will not only answer important evolutionary questions about reversibility of metabolic traits, but also suggest strategies to increase crop yields by engineering the C4 pathway into C3 plants.

  6. Flood Modeling and Simulation using iRIC: A Case Study of Kabul City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shokory Jamal Abdul Naser

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Afghanistan, floods are common and measures must be taken to protect people and property from damage. There is, however, a lack of detailed observations and research on this subject in this area. Therefore, flood simulation models are needed to identify flood-prone areas. In this study, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC program that is river flow and riverbed variation analysis software with several solvers has been used. Nays2DFlood solver that simulates 2dimenstional plane flow has applied to a past flood in Kabul city. River discharge from two inflow points and averaged precipitation from three rain gauges at the time of flooding given as input to the model including DEM (Digital Elevation Model data. The iRIC was confirmed as a 90-m grid digital elevation model to determine the position of streamlines correctly. However, the highest flood depth was overestimated because the 90-m grids were too coarse to detect the slight slope of the riverbed in some areas. Then the elevation of the riverbed modified using data acquired from Google Earth, and the simulation results improved. Moreover, it was found that river water rather than rainfall was the main cause of the flooding.

  7. An Object Model for Integrating Diverse Remote Sensing Satellite Sensors: A Case Study of Union Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuli Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Earth Observation sensor web environment, the rapid, accurate, and unified discovery of diverse remote sensing satellite sensors, and their association to yield an integrated solution for a comprehensive response to specific emergency tasks pose considerable challenges. In this study, we propose a remote sensing satellite sensor object model, based on the object-oriented paradigm and the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Model Language. The proposed model comprises a set of sensor resource objects. Each object consists of identification, state of resource attribute, and resource method. We implement the proposed attribute state description by applying it to different remote sensors. A real application, involving the observation of floods at the Yangtze River in China, is undertaken. Results indicate that the sensor inquirer can accurately discover qualified satellite sensors in an accurate and unified manner. By implementing the proposed union operation among the retrieved sensors, the inquirer can further determine how the selected sensors can collaboratively complete a specific observation requirement. Therefore, the proposed model provides a reliable foundation for sharing and integrating multiple remote sensing satellite sensors and their observations.

  8. The academic merits of modelling in higher mathematics education: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrenet, Jacob; Adan, Ivo

    2010-09-01

    Modelling is an important subject in the Bachelor curriculum of Applied Mathematics at Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands. Students not only learn how to apply their knowledge to solve mathematical problems posed in non-mathematical language, but also they learn to look actively for, or even construct, mathematical knowledge useful for the problem at hand. A detailed analysis of the academic profile of the curriculum is presented, using a framework of competencies and dimensions, developed at this university by the project, Academic Competencies and Quality Assurance (ACQA). The profile is constructed from the perspective of teachers' ambitions. The research question for the present study is: Are there certain academic characteristics typical for the Modelling Track compared to the characteristics of the other courses in the Eindhoven Bachelor curriculum of Applied Mathematics? The analysis shows that the modelling projects are essential for the development of the designing competencies in the curriculum. Other courses in the curriculum are more intended to develop abstraction capabilities. These results provide supporting arguments for the realistic approach chosen for mathematical modelling education.

  9. Urban Metabolism Based on Emergy and Slack Based Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Tao; CAI Jianming; XU Hui; DENG Yu; NIU Fangqu; YANG Zhenshan; DU Shanshan

    2015-01-01

    The key to studying urban sustainable development depends on quantifying stores,efficiencies of urban metabolisms and capturing urban metabolisms' mechanisms.This paper builds up the metabolic emergy account and quantifies some important concepts of emergy stores.Emphasis is placed on the urban metabolic model based on the slack based model (SBM) method to measure urban metabolic efficiencies.Urban metabolic mechanisms are discussed by using the regression method.By integrating these models,this paper analyzes the urban metabolic development in Beijing from 2001 to 2010.We conclude that the metabolic emergy stores of Beijing increased significantly from 2001 to 2010,with the emergy imported accotmting for most of the increase.The metabolic efficiencies in Beijing have improved since the 2008 Olympic Games.The population,economic growth,industrial structures,and environmental governance positively affect the overall urban metabolism,while the land expansion,urbanization and environmentally technical levels hinder the improving of urban metabolic efficiencies.The SBM metabolic method and the regression model based on the emergy analysis provide insights into the urban metabolic efficiencies and the mechanism.They can promote to integrate such concepts into their sustainability analyses and policy decisions.

  10. Exploring the utility of Bayesian Networks for modelling cultural ecosystem services: A canoeing case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Edward; Kumar, Vikas; Lange, Eckart; Lerner, David N

    2016-01-01

    Modelling cultural ecosystem services is challenging as they often involve subjective and intangible concepts. As a consequence they have been neglected in ecosystem service studies, something that needs remedying if environmental decision making is to be truly holistic. We suggest Bayesian Networks (BNs) have a number of qualities that may make them well-suited for dealing with cultural services. For example, they define relationships between variables probabilistically, enabling conceptual and physical variables to be linked, and therefore the numerical representation of stakeholder opinions. We assess whether BNs are a good method for modelling cultural services by building one collaboratively with canoeists to predict how the subjective concepts of fun and danger are impacted on by weir modification. The BN successfully captured the relationships between the variables, with model output being broadly consistent with verbal descriptions by the canoeists. There were however a number of discrepancies indicating imperfect knowledge capture. This is likely due to the structure of the network and the abstract and laborious nature of the probability elicitation stage. New techniques should be developed to increase the intuitiveness and efficiency of probability elicitation. The limitations we identified with BNs are avoided if their structure can be kept simple, and it is in such circumstances that BNs can offer a good method for modelling cultural ecosystem services.

  11. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  12. Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Hui; Karen Shum; Ji Chen; Shyh-Chin Chen; Jack Ritchie; John Roads

    2007-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–...

  13. Surface Response-based Behavioral Modeling of Accurate Digitizers a Case Study on a Fast Digital Integrator at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Arpaia, P; Spiezia, G; Tiso, S

    2007-01-01

    A statistical approach to behavioral modeling for assessing dynamic metrological performance during the concept design of accurate digitizers is proposed. A surface-response approach based on statistical experiment design is exploited for avoiding unrealistic hypothesis of linearity, optimizing simulation, exploring operating conditions systematically, as well as verifying identification and validation uncertainty. An actual case study on the dynamic metrological characterization of a Fast Digital Integrator for high-performance magnetic measurements at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) is presented.

  14. Mesoscale modelling of water vapour in the tropical UTLS: two case studies from the HIBISCUS campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Marécal

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the ability of the BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System mesoscale model compared to ECMWF global analysis to simulate the observed vertical variations of water vapour in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. The observations are balloon-borne measurements of water vapour mixing ratio and temperature from micro-SDLA (Tunable Diode Laser Spectrometer instrument. Data from two balloon flights performed during the 2004 HIBISCUS field campaign are used to compare with the mesoscale simulations and to the ECMWF analysis. The observations exhibit fine scale vertical structures of water vapour of a few hundred meters height. The ECMWF vertical resolution (~1 km is too coarse to capture these vertical structures in the UTLS. With a vertical resolution similar to ECMWF, the mesoscale model performs better than ECMWF analysis for water vapour in the upper troposphere and similarly or slightly worse for temperature. The BRAMS model with 250 m vertical resolution is able to capture more of the observed fine scale vertical variations of water vapour compared to runs with a coarser vertical resolution. This is mainly related to: (i the enhanced vertical resolution in the UTLS and (ii to the more detailed microphysical parameterization providing ice supersaturations as in the observations. In near saturated or supersaturated layers, the mesoscale model predicted relative humidity with respect to ice saturation is close to observations provided that the temperature profile is realistic. For temperature, the ECMWF analysis gives good results partly attributed to data assimilation. The analysis of the mesoscale model results showed that the vertical variations of the water vapour profile depends on the dynamics in unsaturated layer while the microphysical processes play a major role in saturated/supersaturated layers. In the lower stratosphere, the ECMWF model and the BRAMS model give very similar

  15. Estimation of fault parameters using GRACE observations and analytical model. Case study: The 2010 Chile earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatolazadeh, Farzam; Naeeni, Mehdi Raoofian; Voosoghi, Behzad; Rahimi, Armin

    2017-07-01

    In this study, an inversion method is used to constrain the fault parameters of the 2010 Chile Earthquake using gravimetric observations. The formulation consists of using monthly Geopotential coefficients of GRACE observations in a conjunction with the analytical model of Okubo 1992 which accounts for the gravity changes resulting from Earthquake. At first, it is necessary to eliminate the hydrological and oceanic effects from GRACE monthly coefficients and then a spatio-spectral localization analysis, based on wavelet local analysis, should be used to filter the GRACE observations and to better refine the tectonic signal. Finally, the corrected GRACE observations are compared with the analytical model using a nonlinear inversion algorithm. Our results show discernible differences between the computed average slip using gravity observations and those predicted from other co-seismic models. In this study, fault parameters such as length, width, depth, dip, strike and slip are computed using the changes in gravity and gravity gradient components. By using the variations of gravity gradient components the above mentioned parameters are determined as 428 ± 6 Km, 203 ± 5 Km, 5 Km, 10°, 13° and 8 ± 1.2 m respectively. Moreover, the values of the seismic moment and moment magnitude are 2. 09 × 1022 N m and 8.88 Mw respectively which show the small differences with the values reported from USGS (1. 8 × 1022N m and 8.83 Mw).

  16. Hydrogeochemical Modelling for Groundwater in Neyveli Aquifer, Tamil Nadu, India, Using PHREEQC: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chidambaram, S.; Anandhan, P. [Annamalai University, Department of Earth Sciences (India); Prasanna, M. V., E-mail: geoprasanna@gmail.com [Curtin University, Department of Applied Geology, School of Engineering and Science (Malaysia); Ramanathan, AL. [Jawaharlal Nehru University, School of Environmental Sciences (India); Srinivasamoorthy, K. [Pondicherry University, Department of Earth Sciences, School of Physical, Chemical and Applied Sciences (India); Senthil Kumar, G. [HNB Garwhal University, Department of Geology (India)

    2012-09-15

    Sophisticated geochemical models have been used to describe and predict the chemical behaviour of complex natural waters and also to protect the groundwater resources from future contamination. One such model is used to study the hydrogeochemical complexity in a mine area. Extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifer has been in progress for decades to mine lignite in Neyveli. This extraction has developed a cone of depression around the mine site. This cone of depression is well established by the geochemical nature of groundwater in the region. 42 groundwater samples were collected in a definite pattern and they were analysed for major cations, anions and trace elements. The saturation index (SI) of the groundwater for carbonate, sulphate and silica minerals was studied and it has been correlated with the recharge and the discharge regions. The SI of alumino silicates has been used to decipher the stage of weathering. The SI{sub Gibbsite} - SI{sub K-feldspar} has been spatially distributed and the regions of discharge and recharge were identified. Then two flow paths A1 and A2 were identified and inverse modelling using PHREEQC were carried out to delineate the geochemical process that has taken place from recharge to discharge. The initial and final solutions in both the flow paths were correlated with the thermodynamic silicate stability diagrams of groundwater and it was found that the state of thermodynamic stability of the end solutions along the flow path were approaching similar states of equilibrium at the discharge.

  17. Fuzzy Continuous Review Inventory Model using ABC Multi-Criteria Classification Approach: A Single Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriastuti - Ginting

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Inventory is considered as the most expensive, yet important,to any companies. It representsapproximately 50% of the total investment. Inventory cost has become one of the majorcontributorsto inefficiency, therefore it should be managed effectively. This study aims to propose an alternative inventory model, by using ABC multi-criteria classification approach to minimize total cost. By combining FANP (Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and TOPSIS (Technique of Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution, the ABC multi-criteria classification approach identified 12 items of 69 inventory items as “outstanding important class” that contributed to 80% total inventory cost. This finding is then used as the basis to determine the proposed continuous review inventory model.This study found that by using fuzzy trapezoidal cost, the inventory turnover ratio can be increased, and inventory cost can be decreased by 78% for each item in “class A” inventory. Keywords:ABC multi-criteria classification, FANP-TOPSIS, continuous review inventory model lead-time demand distribution, trapezoidal fuzzy number

  18. Fuzzy Continuous Review Inventory Model using ABC Multi-Criteria Classification Approach: A Single Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriastuti - Ginting

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Inventory is considered as the most expensive, yet important,to any companies. It representsapproximately 50% of the total investment. Inventory cost has become one of the majorcontributorsto inefficiency, therefore it should be managed effectively. This study aims to propose an alternative inventory model,  by using ABC multi-criteria classification approach to minimize total cost. By combining FANP (Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and TOPSIS (Technique of Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution, the ABC multi-criteria classification approach identified 12 items of 69 inventory items as “outstanding important class” that contributed to 80% total inventory cost. This finding  is then used as the basis to determine the proposed continuous review inventory model.This study found that by using fuzzy trapezoidal cost, the inventory  turnover ratio can be increased, and inventory cost can be decreased by 78% for each item in “class A” inventory.Keywords:ABC multi-criteria classification, FANP-TOPSIS, continuous review inventory model lead-time demand distribution, trapezoidal fuzzy number 

  19. Vertical characterization of soil contamination using multi-way modeling--a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kunwar P; Malik, Amrita; Basant, Ankita; Ojha, Priyanka

    2008-11-01

    This study describes application of chemometric multi-way modeling approach to analyze the dataset pertaining to soils of industrial area with a view to assess the soil/sub-soil contamination, accumulation pathways and mobility of contaminants in the soil profiles. The three-way (sampling depths, chemical variables, sampling sites) dataset on heavy metals in soil samples collected from three different sites in an industrial area, up to a depth of 60 m each was analyzed using three-way Tucker3 model validated for stability and goodness of fit. A two component Tucker3 model, explaining 66.6% of data variance, allowed interpretation of the data information in all the three modes. The interpretation of core elements revealing interactions among the components of different modes (depth, variables, sites) allowed inferring more realistic information about the contamination pattern of soils both along the horizontal and vertical coordinates, contamination pathways, and mobility of contaminants through soil profiles, as compared to the traditional data analysis techniques. It concluded that soils at site-1 and site-2 are relatively more contaminated with heavy metals of both the natural as well as anthropogenic origins, as compared to the soil of site-3. Moreover, the accumulation pathways of metals for upper shallow layers and deeper layers of soils in the area were differentiated. The information generated would be helpful in developing strategies for remediation of the contaminated soils for reducing the subsequent risk of ground-water contamination in the study region.

  20. Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is accepted that human-induced climate change is unavoidable and it will have effects on physical, chemical, and biological properties of aquatic habitats. This will be especially important for cold water fishes such as trout. The objective of this study is to simulate water temperature for future periods under the climate change situations. Future water temperature in the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, QC, Canada were simulated by the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model, using meteorological inputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The result of the study indicated that water temperature in June will increase 0.2–0.7 °C and that in September, median water temperature could decrease by 0.2–1.1 °C. The rise in summer water temperature may be favorable to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis growth, but several days over the Upper Incipient Lethal Temperature (UILT are also likely to occur. Therefore, flow regulation procedures, including cold water releases from the Morin dam may have to be considered for the Fourchue River.

  1. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  2. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: A case study on Lena River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, André, E-mail: andrerd@gmail.com; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A.R.; Vilar, Vítor J.P., E-mail: vilar@fe.up.pt

    2014-07-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km{sup 2} watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between − 26% and 23% for calibration and − 30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms. - Highlights: • An integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management is presented. • An insight into the

  3. Discontinuum Modelling Approach for Stress Analysis at a Seismic Source: Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainoki, Atsushi; Mitri, Hani S.; Yao, Mike; Chinnasane, Damodara

    2016-12-01

    Rockbursts in underground mines can cause devastating damage to mine workings; hence, it is important to be able to assess the potential for their occurrence. The present study focuses on a large seismic event that took place at an underground base metal mine in Canada. The event took place in a dyke near the 100/900 orebodies on 3880 Level (1180 m below surface) of the Copper Cliff Mine in Sudbury, Canada. A 3D continuum stress analysis of the orebodies, i.e., 100 and 900, using an orebody-wide model encompassing the major geological structures and in situ stress heterogeneity in the mine shows low potential for rockburst at the seismic source location—a result which contradicts the fact that a large seismic event actually took place. A postulation is thus made that there had been highly stressed regions caused by geological disturbances at the source location before mining activities took place. In order to verify the postulation, a further study is undertaken with the discrete element modelling technique, whereby a cube-shaped model containing a fracture network is subjected to a stress state similar to that at the source location. A model parametrical study is conducted with respect to the distribution of the fracture (joint) network and its mechanical properties. The results reveal that when joints are densely distributed at the source location, the stress state becomes significantly burst prone. It is observed that the length, density, stiffness, and orientation of joints have a large influence on the stress state along the joints, while the friction angle, cohesion, and tensile strength do not influence the stress state. A cube-shaped model is constructed with joint sets actually mapped at the mine and a stress analysis is performed. The results demonstrate the generation of highly stressed regions due to the interaction of the joints with the applied in situ stress fields, thus leading to burst-prone conditions. The present study numerically confirms that

  4. Input determination for neural network models in water resources applications. Part 2. Case study: forecasting salinity in a river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Gavin J.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

    2005-01-01

    This paper is the second of a two-part series in this issue that presents a methodology for determining an appropriate set of model inputs for artificial neural network (ANN) models in hydrologic applications. The first paper presented two input determination methods. The first method utilises a measure of dependence known as the partial mutual information (PMI) criterion to select significant model inputs. The second method utilises a self-organising map (SOM) to remove redundant input variables, and a hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and general regression neural network (GRNN) to select the inputs that have a significant influence on the model's forecast. In the first paper, both methods were applied to synthetic data sets and were shown to lead to a set of appropriate ANN model inputs. To verify the proposed techniques, it is important that they are applied to a real-world case study. In this paper, the PMI algorithm and the SOM-GAGRNN are used to find suitable inputs to an ANN model for forecasting salinity in the River Murray at Murray Bridge, South Australia. The proposed methods are also compared with two methods used in previous studies, for the same case study. The two proposed methods were found to lead to more parsimonious models with a lower forecasting error than the models developed using the methods from previous studies. To verify the robustness of each of the ANNs developed using the proposed methodology, a real-time forecasting simulation was conducted. This validation data set consisted of independent data from a six-year period from 1992 to 1998. The ANN developed using the inputs identified by the stepwise PMI algorithm was found to be the most robust for this validation set. The PMI scores obtained using the stepwise PMI algorithm revealed useful information about the order of importance of each significant input.

  5. Learning nursing through simulation: A case study approach towards an expansive model of learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berragan, Liz

    2014-08-01

    This study explores the impact of simulation upon learning for undergraduate nursing students. The study objectives were (a) to explore the experiences of participating in simulation education for a small group of student nurses; and (b) to explore learning through simulation from the perspectives of the nursing students, the nurse educators and the nurse mentors. Conducted as a small-scale narrative case study, it tells the unique stories of a small number of undergraduate nursing students, nurse mentors and nurse educators and explores their experiences of learning through simulation. Data analysis through progressive focusing revealed that the nurse educators viewed simulation as a means of helping students to learn to be nurses, whilst, the nurse mentors suggested that simulation helped them to determine nursing potential. The students' narratives showed that they approached simulation learning in different ways resulting in a range of outcomes: those who were successfully becoming nurses, those who were struggling or working hard to become nurses and those who were not becoming nurses. Theories of professional practice learning and activity theory present an opportunity to articulate and theorise the learning inherent in simulation activities. They recognise the links between learning and the environment of work and highlight the possibilities for learning to inspire change and innovation.

  6. MODIS Inundation Estimate Assimilation into Soil Moisture Accounting Hydrologic Model: A Case Study in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ari Posner

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Flash Flood Guidance consists of indices that estimate the amount of rain of a certain duration that is needed over a given small basin in order to cause minor flooding. Backwater catchment inundation from swollen rivers or regional groundwater inputs are not significant over the spatial and temporal scales for the majority of upland flash flood prone basins, as such, these effects are not considered. However, some lowland areas and flat terrain near large rivers experience standing water long after local precipitation has ceased. NASA is producing an experimental product from the MODIS that detects standing water. These observations were assimilated into the hydrologic model in order to more accurately represent soil moisture conditions within basins, from sources of water from outside of the basin. Based on the upper soil water content, relations are used to derive an error estimate for the modeled soil saturation fraction; whereby, the soil saturation fraction model state can be updated given the availability of satellite observed inundation. Model error estimates were used in a Monte Carlo ensemble forecast of soil water and flash flood potential. Numerical experiments with six months of data (July 2011–December 2011 showed that MODIS inundation data, when assimilated to correct soil moisture estimates, increased the likelihood that bankfull flow would occur, over non-assimilated modeling, at catchment outlets for approximately 44% of basin-days during the study time period. While this is a much more realistic representation of conditions, no actual events occurred allowing for validation during the time period.

  7. Quantifying Groundwater Recharge Uncertainty: A Multiple-Model Framework and Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, C.; Ferré, T. P. A.

    2014-12-01

    In practice, it is difficult to estimate groundwater recharge accurately. Despite this challenge, most recharge investigations produce a single, best estimate of recharge. However, there is growing recognition that quantification of natural recharge uncertainty is critical for groundwater management. We present a multiple-model framework for estimating recharge uncertainty. In addition, we show how direct water flux measurements can be used to reduce the uncertainty of estimates of total basin recharge for an arid, closed hydrologic basin in the Atacama Desert, Chile. We first formulated multiple hydrogeologic conceptual models of the basin based on existing data, and implemented each conceptual model for the purpose of conducting numerical simulations. For each conceptual model, groundwater recharge was inversely estimated; then, Null-Space Monte Carlo techniques were used to quantify the uncertainty on the initial estimate of total basin recharge. Second, natural recharge components - including both deep percolation and streambed infiltration - were estimated from field data. Specifically, vertical temperature profiles were measured in monitoring wells and streambeds, and water fluxes were estimated from thermograph analysis. Third, calculated water fluxes were incorporated as prior information to the model calibration and Null-Space Monte Carlo procedures, yielding revised estimates of both total basin recharge and associated uncertainty. The fourth and final component of this study uses value of information analyses to identify potentially informative locations for additional water flux measurements. The uncertainty quantification framework presented here is broadly transferable; furthermore, this research provides an applied example of the extent to which water flux measurements may serve to reduce groundwater recharge uncertainty at the basin scale.

  8. Providing a Model for Successful Implementation of Customer Relationship Management (Case Study: Zahedan Industrial City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin-Reza Kamalian

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a model for Successful Implementation of Customer Relationship Management (CRM for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs in Zahedan industrial city. Having extensive theoretical study, the factors influencing the success of customer relationship management were identified. Using a standard questionnaire with reliability of 96.2 percent (Cronbach's alpha coefficient, existing and desired situations of these factors were compared by experts' point of view. Research population consists of industrialists and professionals in Zahedan industrial city. Because of small population size, data obtained by the entire population; i.e. 54 companies. This applied study is in descriptive-analytical type. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Results indicated that all factors affecting the success of implementing customer relationship management, except technology, are used in these companies.

  9. Modeling the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission in developing countries: a case study in Changchun City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Atkinson, Peter; Yang, Changbao

    2008-10-01

    This paper presents an integrated model to model the effects of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by coupling a cellular automata (CA) land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model. The improvement of this model lies in using an improved CA epidemic model that can divide individuals into three states (susceptible, infected and recovered) and combine connection factor, movement factor into the epidemic model to provide more helpful outcomes in infectious disease transmission. A population density surface model and a household density surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling infectious disease transmission in Changchun City, a rapidly urbanizing city in China. The simulation results for Changchun City over a 30-year period show that the average numbers of susceptible individuals, infected individuals and recovered individuals in the latter time are greater than those in the previous time during the process of urbanization. In addition, the average numbers of susceptible individuals, infected individuals and recovered individuals increase with higher population growth rate.

  10. Exploring the utility of a GIScience approach to modeling invasive species: A case study of Ailanthus altissima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Arthur

    This thesis investigated the potential for integration of remotely sensed and GIS data into an agent-based modeling environment in order to model seed dispersal and subsequent establishment of windborne seeds. In order to explore the applicability of agent-based modeling to predicting seed dispersal, a case study was carried out using the representative example species Ailanthus altissima, an invasive tree found throughout North America's temperate regions. Seed movement was modeled in two stages, primary and secondary dispersal; primary dispersal was calibrated using existing field data, while secondary dispersal was calibrated only qualitatively. Establishment potential was accounted for probabilistically, based on landuse type. Environmental controls on seed movement and establishment were accounted for with several remotely sensed datasets. The general model characteristics and structure are representative of a potential class of predictive models that incorporate raster data and vector-based seed movement. Agent-based modeling provides a link between raster and vector data and processing methods, and is therefore a potential tool for projects involving both raster and vector data types as well as vector processing. Because seed dispersal and establishment modeling benefits from incorporating both of these data types, it was found that the agent-based approach provided an appropriate framework for modeling the phenomenon, while further research is necessary to fully parameterize and field-validate the model.

  11. Designing a Model of Organizational Agility: A Case Study of Ardabil Gas Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Razmi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Organizational agility means the ability of every organization in sensation, perception, and prediction of available changes in the business environment. The importance of organizational agility in a competitive environment is nowadays widely recognized and accepted. The aim of this research was to design a unified theoretical model of organizational agility for Ardabil Gas Company based upon the theoretical principles of organizational agility proposed by Goldman (1995. Independent variables including organizational intelligence, organizational commitment, and organizational trust were considered as mediator variable and other four essential components of organizational agility such as forming of virtual participation valorize to humanistic knowledge and skills, change readiness, and customers answering were known as dependent variables of research. This is an applied, descriptive-correlation research, conducted by survey methodology. In this study, 568 employees, contractors, and subscribers of Ardabil Gas Company were chosen as the statistical population of the study. For the purpose of the study a questionnaire for data collection was used. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM, it is straightforward to test hypotheses of the equality of various correlation coefficients with any number of covariates across multiple groups. The gathered data was analyzed by using SPSS and LISREL software packages. The results of statistical analysis indicate that organizational trust has a significant positive relationship with organizational agility and organizational trust is the moderator of the relationship between technology intelligence and organizational agility and the relationship between organizational commitment and organizational agility.

  12. The Evolution of Network-based Business Models Illustrated Through the Case Study of an Entrepreneurship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Lund

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Existing frameworks for understanding and analyzing the value configuration and structuring of partnerships in relation such network-based business models are found to be inferior. The purpose of this paper is therefore to broaden our understanding of how business models may change over time and how the role of strategic partners may differ over time too. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal case study spanning over years and mobilising multiple qualitative methods such as interviews, observation and participative observation forms the basis of the data collection. Findings: This paper illustrates how a network-based business model arises and evolves and how the forces of a network structure impact the development of its partner relationships. The contribution of this article is to understanding how partners positioned around a business model can be organized into a network-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers can gain insight into barriers and enablers relating to different types of loose organisations and how to best manage such relationships and interactions Originality/value: This study adds value to the existing literature by reflecting the dynamics created in the interactions between a business model’s strategic partners and how a how a business model can evolve in a series of distinct phases

  13. European model of satisfaction: a case study with students from a Higher Education Instituition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Anger Cavalheiro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the overall satisfaction determinants of the student’s body of a higher education institution in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil. To do so, a descriptive quantitative research was performed, which used a model based on a Survey with 402 students, being the instrument used to conduct the survey based on the European model of satisfaction. Represented by a structural equation (PASWAN YOUNG, 2002, apud VIEIRA et al., 2008, the ECSI (European Customer Satisfaction Model, focuses on: (i evaluating the influence of perceived quality, the expectation of quality, image and perceived value in the overall student satisfaction; (II evaluating the influence of the general satisfaction of students in the level of loyalty and retention of students in the educational institution, and (III pointing key areas as well as a set of indicators for the management and maintenance of the students’ satisfaction from the institution being analyzed. Thus, with the application of the instrument, three factors able to explain 78% of student’s satisfaction towards the university were found: the first and most representative factor was called the student perceived value, which is the perceived value or level of teaching quality for the price paid by the students, the second factor is the image of the university, and the third factor are the expectations of the student.

  14. Modeling Changing Morphology and Density Dependent Groundwater Flow in a Dynamic Environment: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizer, Sebastian; Bierkens, Marc; Oude Essink, Gualbert

    2015-04-01

    The prospect of sea level rise and increase in extreme weather conditions has led to a new focus on coastal defense in the Netherlands. As an innovative solution for coastal erosion a mega-nourishment named the Sand Motor (or Sand Engine) has been constructed at the Dutch coast. This body of sand will be distributed slowly along the coastline by wind, waves and currents; keeping the coastal defense structures in place and creating a unique, dynamic environment with changing morphology over time. The large size and position of the Sand Motor might lead to a substantial increase of fresh ground water resources. This creates an opportunity to combine coastal protection with an increase of fresh water resources in coastal regions. With a three dimensional, density dependent, groundwater model the effects of changing morphology over time and the potential increase in fresh water availability have been studied. The preliminary model calculations show that in a period of 20 years volume of fresh water gradually increases to ca. 12 Mm3. In the nearby dune area 7-8 Mm3 is abstracted yearly, therefore the first results are promising in increasing fresh groundwater resources. More model calculations will be performed to investigate the sensitivity of the change in the fresh, brackish and salt water distribution.

  15. Towards Global QSAR Model Building for Acute Toxicity: Munro Database Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Chavan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A series of 436 Munro database chemicals were studied with respect to their corresponding experimental LD50 values to investigate the possibility of establishing a global QSAR model for acute toxicity. Dragon molecular descriptors were used for the QSAR model development and genetic algorithms were used to select descriptors better correlated with toxicity data. Toxic values were discretized in a qualitative class on the basis of the Globally Harmonized Scheme: the 436 chemicals were divided into 3 classes based on their experimental LD50 values: highly toxic, intermediate toxic and low to non-toxic. The k-nearest neighbor (k-NN classification method was calibrated on 25 molecular descriptors and gave a non-error rate (NER equal to 0.66 and 0.57 for internal and external prediction sets, respectively. Even if the classification performances are not optimal, the subsequent analysis of the selected descriptors and their relationship with toxicity levels constitute a step towards the development of a global QSAR model for acute toxicity.

  16. Gis-Based Method in Developing Wildfire Risk Model (Case Study in Sasamba, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarunton Boonyanuphap

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Analisis pemetaan lengkap (Cemplete Mapping Analysis yang berbasis sistem informasi geografis (SIG digunakan untuk melakukan pembobotan terhadap nilai “vulnerability” dari faktor-faktor resiko dalam rangka membangun suatu model dan memetakan kelas-kelas resiko kebakaran liar. Ada dua faktor utama, yaitu faktor lingkungan fisik dan aktifitas manusia yang sangat mempengaruhi terjadinya kebakaran hutan. Model yang ditemukan pada saat ini memperlihatkan bahwa kelembaban relatif adalah faktor terpenting diantara faktor lingkungan fisik, sementara jarak terhadap pusat-pusat pemukiman merupakan faktor terpenting diantara faktor aktifitas manusia. Diketahui juga bahwa, terjadinya kebakaran liar lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh faktor aktifitas manusia daripada faktor lingkungan fisik. Pada studi ini, wilayah resiko kebakaran liar dibagi atas 3 kelas, dimana ditemukan bahwa kelas resiko kebakaran tertinggi mendominasi lokasi penelitian, selanjutnya diikuti dengan kelas resiko sedang dan rendah. Berdasarkan hasil verifikasi, model hanya berhasil menduga kelas resiko tinggi yaitu sebesar 76,05%, sementara gagal dalam menduga resiko kebakaran sedang dan rendah (lebih rendah dari 40%.

  17. GIS model for identifying urban areas vulnerable to noise pollution: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilaşco, Ştefan; Govor, Corina; Roşca, Sanda; Vescan, Iuliu; Filip, Sorin; Fodorean, Ioan

    2017-04-01

    The unprecedented expansion of the national car ownership over the last few years has been determined by economic growth and the need for the population and economic agents to reduce travel time in progressively expanding large urban centres. This has led to an increase in the level of road noise and a stronger impact on the quality of the environment. Noise pollution generated by means of transport represents one of the most important types of pollution with negative effects on a population's health in large urban areas. As a consequence, tolerable limits of sound intensity for the comfort of inhabitants have been determined worldwide and the generation of sound maps has been made compulsory in order to identify the vulnerable zones and to make recommendations how to decrease the negative impact on humans. In this context, the present study aims at presenting a GIS spatial analysis model-based methodology for identifying and mapping zones vulnerable to noise pollution. The developed GIS model is based on the analysis of all the components influencing sound propagation, represented as vector databases (points of sound intensity measurements, buildings, lands use, transport infrastructure), raster databases (DEM), and numerical databases (wind direction and speed, sound intensity). Secondly, the hourly changes (for representative hours) were analysed to identify the hotspots characterised by major traffic flows specific to rush hours. The validated results of the model are represented by GIS databases and useful maps for the local public administration to use as a source of information and in the process of making decisions.

  18. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, Pernille, E-mail: Pernille.Seljom@ife.no [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Haugen, Jan Erik [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo (Norway); Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John [Department of Physics, University of Oslo (UiO), PO Box 1072 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo (Norway); Jarlset, Thore [Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box 5091 Majorstua, NO-0301 Oslo (Norway)

    2011-11-15

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: > Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. > An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. > Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. > Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  19. Flood Hazard Mapping using Hydraulic Model and GIS: A Case Study in Mandalay City, Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu Kyu Sein

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of flood frequency analysis integrating with 1D Hydraulic model (HECRAS and Geographic Information System (GIS to prepare flood hazard maps of different return periods in Ayeyarwady River at Mandalay City in Myanmar. Gumbel’s distribution was used to calculate the flood peak of different return periods, namely, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years. The flood peak from frequency analysis were input into HEC-RAS model to find the corresponding flood level and extents in the study area. The model results were used in integrating with ArcGIS to generate flood plain maps. Flood depths and extents have been identified through flood plain maps. Analysis of 100 years return period flood plain map indicated that 157.88 km2 with the percentage of 17.54% is likely to be inundated. The predicted flood depth ranges varies from greater than 0 to 24 m in the flood plains and on the river. The range between 3 to 5 m were identified in the urban area of Chanayetharzan, Patheingyi, and Amarapua Townships. The highest inundated area was 85 km2 in the Amarapura Township.

  20. Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Octavianty, Toharudin, Toni; Jaya, I. G. N. Mindra

    2017-03-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by a bacterium, called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which typically attacks the lungs but can also affect the kidney, spine, and brain (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Indonesia had the largest number of TB cases after India (Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 by WHO). The distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in Indonesia showed the high genetic diversity and tended to vary by geographic regions. For instance, in Bandung city, the prevalence rate of TB morbidity is quite high. A number of TB patients belong to the counted data. To determine the factors that significantly influence the number of tuberculosis patients in each location of the observations can be used statistical analysis tool that is Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Semiparametric (GWPRS). GWPRS is an extension of the Poisson regression and GWPR that is influenced by geographical factors, and there is also variables that influence globally and locally. Using the TB Data in Bandung city (in 2015), the results show that the global and local variables that influence the number of tuberculosis patients in every sub-district.

  1. Strategic Planning Model Formulation Based on Balanced Score Card: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaheh Enteshari Najaf Abadi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available At the present age, strategic planning is considered as an important and vital matter for organizations and formulating and implementing strategic plans and accurate parameters may result in organizations long-term superiority in competitive field. But, regarding that competitive factors of all organizations are not the same, formulating the strategy with a similar trend is unlikely to be effective and the prerequisite for success of any organization is to focus and pay attention to its own capacities and unique competitive advantages and to formulate strategies based on those capacities along with focusing on the weakness and threats points. This article presents a model integrated of the strategic planning process and balanced score card and considering four dimensions of the Balanced Score Card (BSC, it accomplishes the process of strategic planning in the fields of financial, customer, internal processes and growth and learning separately and then determines the position of an organization in each dimension. Therefore, the strength and weakness points of the organization are identified and the type of strategies needed for any dimension determined separately. With the aid of this model, top managers are able to determine the organization expects and goals of different sectors clearly and in line with the vision and strategy of organization and deliver to the managers and authorities of different sectors. The results of this model are the analysis of factors influencing on the strategy formulation, extraction of key dimensions, provision of the SWOT matrix for four-folds dimensions of BSC and the identification of organization situation in each dimension such that through basing it on, integrated strategies and operational plans will be formulated for the organization. In this survey, Isfahan Company of tile industry has been studied as a sample and the results of the model implementation for this company described in the text.

  2. A modelling case study of a large-scale cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podglajen, A.; Plougonven, R.; Hertzog, A.; Legras, B.

    2015-11-01

    We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to simulate a large-scale tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cirrus, in order to understand the formation and life cycle of the cloud. This cirrus event has been previously described through satellite observations by Taylor et al. (2011). Comparisons of the simulated and observed cirrus show a fair agreement, and validate the reference simulation regarding cloud extension, location and life time. The validated simulation is used to understand the causes of cloud formation. It is shown that several cirrus clouds successively form in the region due to adiabatic cooling and large-scale uplift rather than from ice lofting from convective anvils. The equatorial response (equatorial wave excitation) to a midlatitude potential vorticity (PV) intrusion structures the uplift. Sensitivity tests are then performed to assess the relative importance of the choice of the microphysics parametrisation and of the initial and boundary conditions. The initial dynamical conditions (wind and temperature) essentially control the horizontal location and area of the cloud. On the other hand, the choice of the microphysics scheme influences the ice water content and the cloud vertical position. Last, the fair agreement with the observations allows to estimate the cloud impact in the TTL in the simulations. The cirrus clouds have a small but not negligible impact on the radiative budget of the local TTL. However, the cloud radiative heating does not significantly influence the simulated dynamics. The simulation also provides an estimate of the vertical redistribution of water by the cloud and the results emphasize the importance in our case of both re and dehydration in the vicinity of the cirrus.

  3. Risk Modelling of Late Spring Frost Damage on Fruit Trees, Case Study; Apple Tree, Mashhad Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Rahimi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Mashhad plain is one of the most important regions of Apple cultivated areas. Occurring spring late frost creates a lot of damages on bud and decreasing the yield of Apple in this region. Assessment and risk modeling of frost damage would be useful to manage and decrease the damage. The study area is a part of Khorasan Razavi province which is located in Mashhad plain. This region is located in Northeast Iran (36º to 37 º N, 58 º 30' to 60 º E. The area of this region is about 13000 square km which is about one tenth of Khorasan province area. In order to modeling frost damage risk 12 affective parameters including climatological(Minimum temperature, temperature decreasing rate, temperature Increasing rate, Julian days of frost, cumulative degree days, Area under zero line, and frost duration and geographical parameters (Elevation, Longitude, Latitude, Aspect, and slope were selected. 3 damage full radiative frosts were selected in the period of Apple flowering time which was dated 20 April 2003, 8 April 2005, and 28 March 2005. Required meteorological data were collected from 9 meteorological standard stations inside and outside of study area. Linear multiple regression were used to modeling the relationship. The map for each parameter was plotted by using suitable interpolation method including IDW; Spline; Kriging. A grid map was defined with 5 by 5 kilometers to extract enough data for entering to the model. The regression equation was significant at the level of 99% significance. By using this equation the predicted amounts of frost risk damage were calculated for each point of grid and also the map was plotted. The regression equation of observed and predicted frost damage risk was provided by correlation of 0.93 and the error map also was prepared. According to this study in frost of 31 Farvardin 1388 South West parts of the plain estimated as the most frost risk areas by %53.19 and the southeast parts were estimated as the least

  4. Collaborative drug therapy management: case studies of three community-based models of care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Margie E; Earl, Tara R; Gilchrist, Siobhan; Greenberg, Michael; Heisler, Holly; Revels, Michelle; Matson-Koffman, Dyann

    2015-03-26

    Collaborative drug therapy management agreements are a strategy for expanding the role of pharmacists in team-based care with other providers. However, these agreements have not been widely implemented. This study describes the features of existing provider-pharmacist collaborative drug therapy management practices and identifies the facilitators and barriers to implementing such services in community settings. We conducted in-depth, qualitative interviews in 2012 in a federally qualified health center, an independent pharmacy, and a retail pharmacy chain. Facilitators included 1) ensuring pharmacists were adequately trained; 2) obtaining stakeholder (eg, physician) buy-in; and 3) leveraging academic partners. Barriers included 1) lack of pharmacist compensation; 2) hesitation among providers to trust pharmacists; 3) lack of time and resources; and 4) existing informal collaborations that resulted in reduced interest in formal agreements. The models described in this study could be used to strengthen clinical-community linkages through team-based care, particularly for chronic disease prevention and management.

  5. Stuttering Intervention in Three Service Delivery Models (Direct, Hybrid, and Telepractice: Two Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. Valentine

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed outcomes in stuttering intervention across three service delivery models: direct, hybrid, and telepractice for two 11-year old children who stutter. The goal of the study was to investigate whether short-term goals were maintained through the telepractice sessions. The Stuttering Severity Instrument, Fourth Edition (SSI-4 was administered to each child before and after each intervention period and weekly fluency samples (percentage of stuttered syllables in a monologue were obtained in each of the 10-week intervention periods. In addition, the Communication Attitudes Test-Revised was used to assess the children’s attitudes toward speaking. Following the telepractice period, parents and children completed a questionnaire concerning the therapy experience via telepractice. Both children continued to improve fluency as measured by the weekly fluency samples. SSI-4 severity ratings improved for one child and remained consistent for the other. These outcomes appear to demonstrate that telepractice is viable for improving and maintaining fluency.

  6. Students attitude towards calculus subject: A case-study using structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awang, Noorehan; Hamid, Nur Nadiah Abd.

    2015-10-01

    This study was designed to assess the attitude of Bumiputera students towards mathematics. The instrument used to measure the attitude was Test of Mathematics Related Attitude (TOMRA). This test measures students' attitudes in four criteria: normality of mathematics (N), attitudes towards mathematics inquiry (I), adoption of mathematics attitude (A) and enjoyment of mathematics lessons (E). The target population of this study was all computer science and quantitative science students who enrolled in a Calculus subject at UiTM Negeri Sembilan. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was carried out and the inter-relationship among the four criteria was analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling. The students scored high in E, moderately in A and relatively low in N and I.

  7. ANFIS-based modelling for coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim; Bermad, Abdelmalek; Dechemi, Noureddine

    2012-04-01

    Coagulation is the most important stage in drinking water treatment processes for the maintenance of acceptable treated water quality and economic plant operation, which involves many complex physical and chemical phenomena. Moreover, coagulant dosing rate is non-linearly correlated to raw water characteristics such as turbidity, conductivity, pH, temperature, etc. As such, coagulation reaction is hard or even impossible to control satisfactorily by conventional methods. Traditionally, jar tests are used to determine the optimum coagulant dosage. However, this is expensive and time-consuming and does not enable responses to changes in raw water quality in real time. Modelling can be used to overcome these limitations. In this study, an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was used for modelling of coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant of Boudouaou, Algeria. Six on-line variables of raw water quality including turbidity, conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, ultraviolet absorbance, and the pH of water, and alum dosage were used to build the coagulant dosage model. Two ANFIS-based Neuro-fuzzy systems are presented. The two Neuro-fuzzy systems are: (1) grid partition-based fuzzy inference system (FIS), named ANFIS-GRID, and (2) subtractive clustering based (FIS), named ANFIS-SUB. The low root mean square error and high correlation coefficient values were obtained with ANFIS-SUB method of a first-order Sugeno type inference. This study demonstrates that ANFIS-SUB outperforms ANFIS-GRID due to its simplicity in parameter selection and its fitness in the target problem.

  8. Empirical Evaluation of the Proposed eXScrum Model: Results of a Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Qureshi, M Rizwan Jameel

    2012-01-01

    Agile models promote fast development. XP and Scrum are the most widely used agile models. This paper investigates the phases of XP and Scrum models in order to identify their potentials and drawbacks. XP model has certain drawbacks, such as not suitable for maintenance projects and poor performance for medium and large-scale development projects. Scrum model has certain limitations, such as lacked in engineering practices. Since, both XP and Scrum models contain good features and strengths but still there are improvement possibilities in these models. Majority of the software development companies are reluctant to switch from traditional methodologies to agile methodologies for development of industrial projects. A fine integration, of software management of the Scrum model and engineering practices of XP model, is very much required to accumulate the strengths and remove the limitations of both models. This is achieved by proposing an eXScrum model. The proposed model is validated by conducting a controlled...

  9. Prospective elementary teachers’ perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Fazio

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  10. Prospective elementary teachers’ perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Fazio1,*

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  11. Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case study in southern Italy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ilaria Guagliardi; Natalia Rovella; Carmine Apollaro; Andrea Bloise; Rosanna De Rosa; Fabio Scarciglia; Gabriele Buttafuoco

    2016-12-01

    The activity of natural radionuclides in soil has become an environmental concern for local public and national authorities because of the harmful effects of radiation exposure on human health. In this context, modelling and mapping the activity of natural radionuclides in soil is an important research topic. The study was aimed to model, in a spatial sense, the soil radioactivity in an urban and peri-urban soils area in southern Italy to analyse the seasonal influence on soil radioactivity. Measures of gamma radiation naturally emitted through the decay of radioactive isotopes (potassium, uranium and thorium) were analysed using a geostatistical approach to map the spatial distribution of soil radioactivity. The activity of three radionuclides was measured at 181 locations using a high-resolution γ-ray spectrometry. To take into account the influence of season, the measurements were carried out in summer and in winter. Activity data were analysed by using a geostatistical approach and zones of relatively high or low radioactivity were delineated. Among the main processes which influence natural radioactivity such as geology, geochemical, pedological, and ecological processes, results of this study showed a prominent control of radio-emission measurements by seasonal changes. Low natural radioactivity levels were measured in December associated with winter weather and moist soil conditions (due to high rainfall and low temperature), and higher activity values in July, when the soil was dry and no precipitations occurred.

  12. Model of municipal solid waste source separation activity: a case study of Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lei; Li, Zhen-Shan; Fu, Hui-Zhen

    2011-02-01

    One major challenge faced by Beijing is dealing with the enormous amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated, which contains a high percentage of food waste. Source separation is considered an effective means of reducing waste and enhancing recycling. However, few studies have focused on quantification of the mechanism of source separation activity. Therefore, this study was conducted to establish a mathematical model of source separation activity (MSSA) that correlates the source separation ratio with the following parameters: separation facilities, awareness, separation transportation, participation atmosphere, environmental profit, sense of honor, and economic profit. The MSSA consisted of two equations, one related to the behavior generation stage and one related to the behavior stability stage. The source separation ratios of the residential community, office building, and primary and middle school were calculated using the MSSA. Data for analysis were obtained from a 1-yr investigation and a questionnaire conducted at 128 MSW clusters around Beijing. The results revealed that office buildings had an initial separation ratio of 80% and a stable separation ratio of 65.86%, whereas residential communities and primary and middle schools did not have a stable separation ratio. The MSSA curve took on two shapes. In addition, internal motivations and the separation transportation ratio were found to be key parameters of the MSSA. This model can be utilized for other cities and countries.

  13. Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case study in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guagliardi, Ilaria; Rovella, Natalia; Apollaro, Carmine; Bloise, Andrea; Rosa, Rosanna De; Scarciglia, Fabio; Buttafuoco, Gabriele

    2016-12-01

    The activity of natural radionuclides in soil has become an environmental concern for local public and national authorities because of the harmful effects of radiation exposure on human health. In this context, modelling and mapping the activity of natural radionuclides in soil is an important research topic. The study was aimed to model, in a spatial sense, the soil radioactivity in an urban and peri-urban soils area in southern Italy to analyse the seasonal influence on soil radioactivity. Measures of gamma radiation naturally emitted through the decay of radioactive isotopes (potassium, uranium and thorium) were analysed using a geostatistical approach to map the spatial distribution of soil radioactivity. The activity of three radionuclides was measured at 181 locations using a high-resolution ?-ray spectrometry. To take into account the influence of season, the measurements were carried out in summer and in winter. Activity data were analysed by using a geostatistical approach and zones of relatively high or low radioactivity were delineated. Among the main processes which influence natural radioactivity such as geology, geochemical, pedological, and ecological processes, results of this study showed a prominent control of radio-emission measurements by seasonal changes. Low natural radioactivity levels were measured in December associated with winter weather and moist soil conditions (due to high rainfall and low temperature), and higher activity values in July, when the soil was dry and no precipitations occurred.

  14. Modelling of cohesive sediment dynamics in tidal estuarine systems: Case study of Tagus estuary, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, G.; Pinto, L.; Ascione, I.; Mateus, M.; Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P.; Neves, R.

    2014-12-01

    Cohesive sediment dynamics in estuarine systems is a major issue in water quality and engineering problems. Numerical models can help to assess the complex dynamics of cohesive sediments, integrating the information collected in monitoring studies. Following a numerical approach we investigated the main factors that influence the cohesive sediment dynamics in an estuarine system composed of large mudflats (Tagus estuary, Portugal). After a spin up period of the bottom layer and considering the combined effect of waves and currents on the bottom shear stress, the dynamics of cohesive sediment during the fortnightly and daily erosion-sedimentation cycle was properly reproduced by the model. The results of cohesive suspended sediments were validated with data from sixteen monitoring stations located along the estuary and turbidity data measured by two multiparametric probes. The hydrodynamics were previously validated by harmonic analysis and with ADCP data. Although tidal currents are the major cause of cohesive sediment erosion, the results suggest that wind waves also play an important role. The simulated sediment mass involved in the fortnightly tidal cycle was in the same order of magnitude of the annual load from the rivers, as observed in previous studies based on field data.

  15. A case study to quantify prediction bounds caused by model-form uncertainty of a portal frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hall, Thomas M.; Gonzales, Lindsey M.; Hemez, François M.; Anton, Steven R.

    2015-01-01

    Numerical simulations, irrespective of the discipline or application, are often plagued by arbitrary numerical and modeling choices. Arbitrary choices can originate from kinematic assumptions, for example the use of 1D beam, 2D shell, or 3D continuum elements, mesh discretization choices, boundary condition models, and the representation of contact and friction in the simulation. This work takes a step toward understanding the effect of arbitrary choices and model-form assumptions on the accuracy of numerical predictions. The application is the simulation of the first four resonant frequencies of a one-story aluminum portal frame structure under free-free boundary conditions. The main challenge of the portal frame structure resides in modeling the joint connections, for which different modeling assumptions are available. To study this model-form uncertainty, and compare it to other types of uncertainty, two finite element models are developed using solid elements, and with differing representations of the beam-to-column and column-to-base plate connections: (i) contact stiffness coefficients or (ii) tied nodes. Test-analysis correlation is performed to compare the lower and upper bounds of numerical predictions obtained from parametric studies of the joint modeling strategies to the range of experimentally obtained natural frequencies. The approach proposed is, first, to characterize the experimental variability of the joints by varying the bolt torque, method of bolt tightening, and the sequence in which the bolts are tightened. The second step is to convert what is learned from these experimental studies to models that "envelope" the range of observed bolt behavior. We show that this approach, that combines small-scale experiments, sensitivity analysis studies, and bounding-case models, successfully produces lower and upper bounds of resonant frequency predictions that match those measured experimentally on the frame structure. (Approved for unlimited, public

  16. Case management for dementia in primary health care: a systematic mixed studies review based on the diffusion of innovation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanassov, Vladimir; Vedel, Isabelle; Pluye, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with the implementation of case management (CM) interventions in primary health care (PHC) and to develop strategies to enhance its adoption by PHC practices. This study was designed as a systematic mixed studies review (including quantitative and qualitative studies) with synthesis based on the diffusion of innovation model. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, PsycInfo, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database (1995 to August 2012) to identify quantitative (randomized controlled and nonrandomized) and qualitative studies describing the conditions limiting and facilitating successful CM implementation in PHC. The methodological quality of each included study was assessed using the validated Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Twenty-three studies (eleven quantitative and 12 qualitative) were included. The characteristics of CM that negatively influence implementation are low CM intensity (eg, infrequent follow-up), large caseload (more than 60 patients per full-time case manager), and approach, ie, reactive rather than proactive. Case managers need specific skills to perform their role (eg, good communication skills) and their responsibilities in PHC need to be clearly delineated. Our systematic review supports a better understanding of factors that can explain inconsistent evidence with regard to the outcomes of dementia CM in PHC. Lastly, strategies are proposed to enhance implementation of dementia CM in PHC.

  17. Dealing with Dependent Uncertainty in Modelling: A Comparative Study Case through the Airy Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Cortés

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of uncertainty in differential equations leads to the emergent area of random differential equations. Under this approach, inputs become random variables and/or stochastic processes. Often one assumes that inputs are independent, a hypothesis that simplifies the mathematical treatment although it could not be met in applications. In this paper, we analyse, through the Airy equation, the influence of statistical dependence of inputs on the output, computing its expectation and standard deviation by Fröbenius and Polynomial Chaos methods. The results are compared with Monte Carlo sampling. The analysis is conducted by the Airy equation since, as in the deterministic scenario its solutions are highly oscillatory, it is expected that differences will be better highlighted. To illustrate our study, and motivated by the ubiquity of Gaussian random variables in numerous practical problems, we assume that inputs follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution throughout the paper. The application of Fröbenius method to solve Airy equation is based on an extension of the method to the case where inputs are dependent. The numerical results show that the existence of statistical dependence among the inputs and its magnitude entails changes on the variability of the output.

  18. Portrayal of fuzzy recharge areas for water balance modelling - a case study in northern Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerner, A.; Schütze, N.; Schmitz, G. H.

    2012-06-01

    The research project IWAS Oman aims at implementing integrated water resources management (IWRM) to a pilot area in Al Batinah, Oman. This requires - amongst others - a realistic assessment of groundwater recharge to the alluvial aquifer which obviously has to be based upon the extension of recharge areas. In this context, the subsequent investigation focuses on the role of vagueness as regards the portrayal of the areas that provide water for particular aquifers. For that purpose, concepts of fuzziness in spatial analysis are applied to describe possible extents of recharge areas. In general, any water assessment is based on clearly delineated boundaries. However, in many cases, aquifer recharge areas are not clearly defined due to the nature of the study area. Hence, surfaces indicating a gradual membership to the recharge area of a particular aquifer are used in this investigation. These surfaces, which are based on available qualitative information, visualise a potential range of spatial extension. With regard to water balance calculations, functional relationships in tabular form are derived as well. Based on a regionalisation approach providing spatially distributed recharge rates, the corresponding recharge volume is calculated. Hence, this methodology provides fuzzy input data for water balance calculations. Beyond the portrayal of one singular aquifer recharge area, this approach also supports the complementary consideration of adjacent areas.

  19. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty--A case study of Dongying, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; You, L; Jin, S W

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits.

  20. Management of a water distribution network by coupling GIS and hydraulic modeling: a case study of Chetouane in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbaki, Chérifa; Benchaib, Mohamed Mouâd; Benziada, Salim; Mahmoudi, Hacène; Goosen, Mattheus

    2016-04-01

    For more effective management of water distribution network in an arid region, Mapinfo GIS (8.0) software was coupled with a hydraulic model (EPANET 2.0) and applied to a case study region, Chetouane, situated in the north-west of Algeria. The area is characterized not only by water scarcity but also by poor water management practices. The results showed that a combination of GIS and modeling permits network operators to better analyze malfunctions with a resulting more rapid response as well as facilitating in an improved understanding of the work performed on the network. The grouping of GIS and modeling as an operating tool allows managers to diagnosis a network, to study solutions of problems and to predict future situations. The later can assist them in making informed decisions to ensure an acceptable performance level for optimal network operation.

  1. Management of a water distribution network by coupling GIS and hydraulic modeling: a case study of Chetouane in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbaki, Chérifa; Benchaib, Mohamed Mouâd; Benziada, Salim; Mahmoudi, Hacène; Goosen, Mattheus

    2017-06-01

    For more effective management of water distribution network in an arid region, Mapinfo GIS (8.0) software was coupled with a hydraulic model (EPANET 2.0) and applied to a case study region, Chetouane, situated in the north-west of Algeria. The area is characterized not only by water scarcity but also by poor water management practices. The results showed that a combination of GIS and modeling permits network operators to better analyze malfunctions with a resulting more rapid response as well as facilitating in an improved understanding of the work performed on the network. The grouping of GIS and modeling as an operating tool allows managers to diagnosis a network, to study solutions of problems and to predict future situations. The later can assist them in making informed decisions to ensure an acceptable performance level for optimal network operation.

  2. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews......Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  3. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework - Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Gregson, Christopher; Sin, Gürkan;

    2011-01-01

    A computer-aided modelling tool for efficient multi-scale modelling has been developed and is applied to solve a multi-scale modelling problem related to design and evaluation of fragrance aerosol products. The developed modelling scenario spans three length scales and describes how droplets...

  4. An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kijl, Björn; Boersma, Durk

    2010-01-01

    Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in

  5. An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kijl, Björn; Boersma, Durk

    2010-01-01

    Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in thi

  6. Holocene glacier variability: three case studies using an intermediate-complexity climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2003-01-01

    Synthetic glacier length records are generated for the Holocene epoch using a process-based glacier model coupled to the intermediate-complexity climate model ECBilt. The glacier model consists of a massbalance component and an ice-flow component. The climate model is forced by the insolation change

  7. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  8. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    , however, it is not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  9. Spatial Modeling of Flood Sea Tides (Case Study: East Coast Semarang)

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Aris Marfai

    2004-01-01

    The aims of this research are 1) to construct a spatial model of tidal flood hazard, 2) to do hazard analysis of tidal flood. Spatial modelling has been generated using Geographic Information System (GIS) software and ILWIS software was seleccted to do the model operation. Neighborhood function and digital elevation model (DEM) have been applied on the modelling calculation process. DEM data was correted and menipulated using map calculation on the digital form. Tidal flood hazard analysis ha...

  10. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

    2014-03-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

  11. A Case Study of Using a Multilayered Thermodynamical Snow Model for Radiance Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toure, Ally M.; Goita, Kalifa; Royer, Alain; Kim, Edward J.; Durand, Michael; Margulis, Steven A.; Lu, Huizhong

    2011-01-01

    A microwave radiance assimilation (RA) scheme for the retrieval of snow physical state variables requires a snowpack physical model (SM) coupled to a radiative transfer model. In order to assimilate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) at horizontal polarization (h-pol), an SM capable of resolving melt-refreeze crusts is required. To date, it has not been shown whether an RA scheme is tractable with the large number of state variables present in such an SM or whether melt-refreeze crust densities can be estimated. In this paper, an RA scheme is presented using the CROCUS SM which is capable of resolving melt-refreeze crusts. We assimilated both vertical (v) and horizontal (h) Tbs at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz. We found that assimilating Tb at both h-pol and vertical polarization (v-pol) into CROCUS dramatically improved snow depth estimates, with a bias of 1.4 cm compared to-7.3 cm reported by previous studies. Assimilation of both h-pol and v-pol led to more accurate results than assimilation of v-pol alone. The snow water equivalent (SWE) bias of the RA scheme was 0.4 cm, while the bias of the SWE estimated by an empirical retrieval algorithm was -2.9 cm. Characterization of melt-refreeze crusts via an RA scheme is demonstrated here for the first time; the RA scheme correctly identified the location of melt-refreeze crusts observed in situ.

  12. Modeling the effects of ship emissions on coastal air quality: A case study of southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vutukuru, Satish; Dabdub, Donald

    2008-05-01

    Impact of emissions from ocean-going ships on ozone and particulate matter concentrations is quantified using UCI-CIT model for the South Coast Air Basin of California (SoCAB). The modeling domain encompasses Los Angeles and Long Beach ports and part of the Pacific Ocean that is traversed by ships to visit these ports. Impacts are assessed for a base year (2002) and a future year (2020) by analyzing results from simulations of a three-day summer episode. Contribution of ship emissions to peak 1-h and 8-h ozone concentrations is predicted to be up to 29 and 24 ppb, respectively, for the year 2002. Similarly, particulate nitrate and sulfate concentrations increase up to 12.8 and 1.7 μg m-3, respectively, in the basin when ship emissions are included. Maximum impacts are predicted to occur along the coasts of Ventura and Los Angeles and also at inland locations near Simi Valley. Future year simulations show substantial increase in impacts from ships due to expected growth in ship emissions. Ozone increases are as high as 59 ppb for land-based locations when estimates of ship emissions for 2020 are included. Similarly, particulate nitrate and sulfate increase up to 14 and 2.5 μg m-3. The results of this study show that control of ship emissions is important to mitigate air pollution.

  13. Model of Chinese Household Kitchen Waste Separation Behavior: A Case Study in Beijing City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalin Yuan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High participation rates by the public in authority projects are key in increasing resident recycling levels. Understanding waste separation behavior is crucial to achieving sustainable waste management within such household-based schemes. To identify the driving forces behind the seldom-discussed kitchen garbage separation behavior, five psychological factors, namely, attitude, perceived behavior control, subjective norms, moral norms, and responsibility denial, are established. Our data originate from a social study of Beijing citizens conducted in July 2013 (n = 362. Through structural equation modeling, we find that moral norms are consistently the most important predictor of household kitchen waste (KW separation behavior. Subjective norms have a larger effect on such behavior than responsibility denial. Data analysis shows that perceived behavior control contributes significantly and independently to the explanation of such behavior. By contrast, attitude towards KW separation is found to be significantly negatively correlated with separation behavior. In conclusion, the model with direct and indirect effects of psychological factors explains 50.3% of the variance in household KW source separation behavior. Implications of the results for the promotion of household KW separation programs are discussed.

  14. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Vicky L.; Truex, Michael J.; Rockhold, Mark L.; Bacon, Diana H.; Freshley, Mark D.; Wellman, Dawn M.

    2017-09-01

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this report, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: (1) modeling approach, (2) description of process, and (3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil-vapor-extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  15. PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR MANUFACTURING APPLICATIONS WITH FUSED DEPOSITION MODELLING – A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. Garg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the suitability of fused deposition modelling (FDM, for the production of a pattern that can be used in direct manufacturing applications. In this work, the benchmark was identified and its best part orientation in a FDM machine was located through experimentation. Control charts and process capability histogram were drawn to assess the process capability of the FDM process. The micro hardness of the prepared sample was measured to check the suitability of the process for investment casting applications. Further dimensional accuracy of patterns was established by IT grades as per the ISO standard UNI EN 20286-I (1995. It was observed that the performance indices for all the dimensions in the present study are greater than 1. The study of photo micrographs using SEM gave an insight into the properties of the component (produced by FDM. This study highlights that the tolerance grades for ABS plastics are consistent with the permissible range of tolerance grades as per the ISO standard UNI EN 20286-I (1995 and DIN16901 standard.

  16. Towards a three-component model of fan loyalty: a case study of Chinese youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-xiao; Liu, Li; Zhao, Xian; Zheng, Jian; Yang, Meng; Zhang, Ji-qi

    2015-01-01

    The term "fan loyalty" refers to the loyalty felt and expressed by a fan towards the object of his/her fanaticism in both everyday and academic discourses. However, much of the literature on fan loyalty has paid little attention to the topic from the perspective of youth pop culture. The present study explored the meaning of fan loyalty in the context of China. Data were collected by the method of in-depth interviews with 16 young Chinese people aged between 19 and 25 years who currently or once were pop fans. The results indicated that fan loyalty entails three components: involvement, satisfaction, and affiliation. These three components regulate the process of fan loyalty development, which can be divided into four stages: inception, upgrade, zenith, and decline. This model provides a conceptual explanation of why and how young Chinese fans are loyal to their favorite stars. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  17. Towards a three-component model of fan loyalty: a case study of Chinese youth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-xiao Zhang

    Full Text Available The term "fan loyalty" refers to the loyalty felt and expressed by a fan towards the object of his/her fanaticism in both everyday and academic discourses. However, much of the literature on fan loyalty has paid little attention to the topic from the perspective of youth pop culture. The present study explored the meaning of fan loyalty in the context of China. Data were collected by the method of in-depth interviews with 16 young Chinese people aged between 19 and 25 years who currently or once were pop fans. The results indicated that fan loyalty entails three components: involvement, satisfaction, and affiliation. These three components regulate the process of fan loyalty development, which can be divided into four stages: inception, upgrade, zenith, and decline. This model provides a conceptual explanation of why and how young Chinese fans are loyal to their favorite stars. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  18. Energy Optimization Modeling of Geothermal Power Plant (Case Study: Darajat Geothermal Field Unit III)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinaga, R. H. M.; Darmanto, P. S.

    2016-09-01

    Darajat unit III geothermal power plant is developed by PT. Chevron Geothermal Indonesia (CGI). The plant capacity is 121 MW and load 110%. The greatest utilization power is consumed by Hot Well Pump (HWP) and Cooling Tower Fan (CTF). Reducing the utility power can be attempted by utilizing the wet bulb temperature fluctuation. In this study, a modelling process is developed by using Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software version 9.430.The possibility of energy saving is indicated by Specific Steam Consumption (SSC) net in relation to wet bulb temperature fluctuation from 9°C up to 20.5°C. Result shows that the existing daily operation reaches its optimum condition. The installation of Variable Frequency Drive (VFD) could be applied to optimize both utility power of HWP and CTF. The highest gain is obtained by VFD HWP installation as much as 0.80% when wet bulb temperature 18.5 °C.

  19. Personal Metabolism (PM) coupled with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model: Danish Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Birkved, Morten; Kabins, Simon; Nygaard, Simon Elsborg

    2016-05-01

    Sustainable and informed resource consumption is the key to make everyday living sustainable for entire populations. An intelligent and strategic way of addressing the challenges related with sustainable development of the everyday living of consumers is to identify consumption-determined hotspots in terms of environmental and health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. Analyzing consumer life styles in terms of consumption patterns in order to identify hotspots is hence the focus of this study. This is achieved by taking into account the entire value chain of the commodities consumed in the context of environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. A systematic commodity consumption, commodity disposal, and life style survey of 1281 persons living in urbanized Danish areas was conducted. The findings of the survey showed new impact dimensions in terms of Personal Metabolism (PM) patterns of residents living in urbanized areas of Denmark. Extending the PM analysis with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) provided a clear picture of the per capita environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions, and the exact origin hereof. A generic PM-LCA Model for all the 1281 persons was set-up in Gabi 6. The assessment results obtained applying the model on all 1281 personal consumption scenarios yielded the 1281 Personal Impact Profiles (PIPs). Consumption of food and energy (electricity and thermal energy) proved to be the primary impact sources of PM, followed by transport. The PIPs further revealed that behavioral factors (e.g. different diets, use of cars, household size) affect the profiles. Hence, behavioral changes are one means out of many that humanity will most likely have to rely on during the sustainable development process. The results of this study will help the Danish and other comparable populations to identify and prioritize the steps towards reducing their environmental, human health, and resource consumption

  20. Are transnational tobacco companies’ market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

    2013-01-01

    Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs’ efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs’ efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs’ strategies to countries’ economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs’ strategies in Korea were linked to Korea’s export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude toward foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs’ strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation. PMID:23327486

  1. Are transnational tobacco companies' market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

    2013-01-01

    Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs' efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs' efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs' strategies to countries' economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs' strategies in Korea were linked to Korea's export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude towards foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs' strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation.

  2. Application of the IPCC Waste Model to solid waste disposal sites in tropical countries: case study of Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangyao, Komsilp; Towprayoon, Sirintornthep; Chiemchaisri, Chart; Gheewala, Shabbir H; Nopharatana, Annop

    2010-05-01

    Measurements of landfill methane emission were performed at nine solid waste disposal sites in Thailand, including five managed sanitary landfills (four deep and one shallow landfills) and four unmanaged landfills (three deep and one shallow dumpsites). It was found that methane emissions during the rainy season were about five to six times higher than those during the winter and summer seasons in the case of managed landfills and two to five times higher in the case of unmanaged landfills. Methane emission estimate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model was compared with the actual field measurement from the studied disposal sites with methane correction factors and methane oxidation factors that were obtained by error function analysis with default values of half-life parameters. The methane emissions from the first-order decay model from the IPCC Waste Model yielded fair results compared to field measurements. The best fitting values of methane correction factor were 0.65, 0.20, 0.15, and 0.1 for deep landfills, shallow landfills, deep dumpsites, and shallow dumpsites, respectively. Using these key parameters in the case of Thailand, it was estimated that 89.22 Gg of methane were released from solid waste disposal sites into the atmosphere in 2006.

  3. Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2017-01-30

    Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model.

  4. A multiscale model for the study of cardiac biomechanics in single-ventricle surgeries: a clinical case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meoli, Alessio; Cutrì, Elena; Krishnamurthy, Adarsh; Dubini, Gabriele; Migliavacca, Francesco; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Pennati, Giancarlo; Taylor, Andrew; Giardini, Alessandro; Khambadkone, Sachin; Schievano, Silvia; de Leval, Marc; Hsia, T-Y; Bove, Edward; Dorfman, Adam; Baker, G Hamilton; Hlavacek, Anthony; Migliavacca, Francesco; Pennati, Giancarlo; Dubini, Gabriele; Marsden, Alison; Feinstein, Jeffrey; Vignon-Clementel, Irene; Figliola, Richard; McGregor, John

    2015-04-06

    Complex congenital heart disease characterized by the underdevelopment of one ventricular chamber (single ventricle (SV) circulation) is normally treated with a three-stage surgical repair. This study aims at developing a multiscale computational framework able to couple a patient-specific three-dimensional finite-element model of the SV to a patient-specific lumped parameter (LP) model of the whole circulation, in a closed-loop fashion. A sequential approach was carried out: (i) cardiocirculatory parameters were estimated by using a fully LP model; (ii) ventricular material parameters and unloaded geometry were identified by means of the stand-alone, three-dimensional model of the SV; and (iii) the three-dimensional model of SV was coupled to the LP model of the circulation, thus closing the loop and creating a multiscale model. Once the patient-specific multiscale model was set using pre-operative clinical data, the virtual surgery was performed, and the post-operative conditions were simulated. This approach allows the analysis of local information on ventricular function as well as global parameters of the cardiovascular system. This methodology is generally applicable to patients suffering from SV disease for surgical planning at different stages of treatment. As an example, a clinical case from stage 1 to stage 2 is considered here.

  5. [Qualitative case study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debout, Christophe

    2016-06-01

    The qualitative case study is a research method which enables a complex phenomenon to be explored through the identification of different factors interacting with each other. The case observed is a real situation. In the field of nursing science, it may be a clinical decision-making process. The study thereby enables the patient or health professional experience to be conceptualised. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  6. Objectivist case study research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridder, Hanne Mette Ochsner; Fachner, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    be achieved through the use of objectivist case study research. The strength of the case study design is that it allows for uncovering or suggesting causal relationships in real-life settings through an intensive and rich collection of data. According to Hilliard (1993), the opposite applies for extensive...... designs, in which a small amount of data is gathered on a large number of subjects. With the richness of data, the intensive design is ―the primary pragmatic reason for engaging in single-case or small N research‖ (p. 374) and for working from an idiographic rather than a nomothetic perspective....

  7. Evaluating indoor exposure modeling alternatives for LCA: A case study in the vehicle repair industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Wilson, Michael P.; Hammond, S. Katharine; McKone, Thomas E.

    2009-05-01

    We evaluated three exposure models with data obtained from measurements among workers who use"aerosol" solvent products in the vehicle repair industry and with field experiments using these products to simulate the same exposure conditions. The three exposure models were the: 1) homogeneously-mixed-one-box model, 2) multi-zone model, and 3) eddy-diffusion model. Temporally differentiated real-time breathing zone volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration measurements, integrated far-field area samples, and simulated experiments were used in estimating parameters, such as emission rates, diffusivity, and near-field dimensions. We assessed differences in model input requirements and their efficacy for predictive modeling. The One-box model was not able to resemble the temporal profile of exposure concentrations, but it performed well concerning time-weighted exposure over extended time periods. However, this model required an adjustment for spatial concentration gradients. Multi-zone models and diffusion-models may solve this problem. However, we found that the reliable use of both these models requires extensive field data to appropriately define pivotal parameters such as diffusivity or near-field dimensions. We conclude that it is difficult to apply these models for predicting VOC exposures in the workplace. However, for comparative exposure scenarios in life-cycle assessment they may be useful.

  8. Case management for dementia in primary health care: a systematic mixed studies review based on the diffusion of innovation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanassov V

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Vladimir Khanassov, Isabelle Vedel, Pierre PluyeDepartment of Family Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, QC, CanadaBackground: The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with the implementation of case management (CM interventions in primary health care (PHC and to develop strategies to enhance its adoption by PHC practices.Methods: This study was designed as a systematic mixed studies review (including quantitative and qualitative studies with synthesis based on the diffusion of innovation model. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, PsycInfo, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database (1995 to August 2012 to identify quantitative (randomized controlled and nonrandomized and qualitative studies describing the conditions limiting and facilitating successful CM implementation in PHC. The methodological quality of each included study was assessed using the validated Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Results: Twenty-three studies (eleven quantitative and 12 qualitative were included. The characteristics of CM that negatively influence implementation are low CM intensity (eg, infrequent follow-up, large caseload (more than 60 patients per full-time case manager, and approach, ie, reactive rather than proactive. Case managers need specific skills to perform their role (eg, good communication skills and their responsibilities in PHC need to be clearly delineated.Conclusion: Our systematic review supports a better understanding of factors that can explain inconsistent evidence with regard to the outcomes of dementia CM in PHC. Lastly, strategies are proposed to enhance implementation of dementia CM in PHC. Keywords: systematic mixed studies review, dementia, case management, primary health care, implementation, diffusion of innovation

  9. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, K., E-mail: zhangkaibetter@126.com; Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org; Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.ca; You, L., E-mail: youli_ncepu@126.com; Jin, S.W., E-mail: jinshuwei2014@126.com

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  10. A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trucco, P. [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering-Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, I-20133 Milan (Italy)], E-mail: paolo.trucco@polimi.it; Cagno, E. [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering-Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, I-20133 Milan (Italy); Ruggeri, F. [CNR IMATI, via E.Bassini, 15, I-20133 Milan (Italy); Grande, O. [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering-Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, I-20133 Milan (Italy)

    2008-06-15

    The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational and organisational conditions. The linkage can be exploited in different ways, especially to support identification and evaluation of risk control options also at the organisational level. Conditional probabilities for the BBN have been estimated by means of experts' judgments, collected from an international panel of different European countries. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out over the model to identify configurations of the MTS leading to a significant reduction of accident probability during the operation of the HSC.

  11. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework – Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Glarborg, Peter

    -aided methods provide. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task involving...... numerous steps, expert skills and different modelling tools. This motivates the development of a computer-aided modelling framework that supports the user during model development, documentation, analysis, identification, application and re-use with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modelling...... generation, optimal equation ordering, eigenvalue analysis. Once the models have been constructed and analysed the modelling framework incorporates 3 application work-flows for: identification, simulation and design. For these application work-flows different solvers that can solve a large range of different...

  12. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework – Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Glarborg, Peter

    Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer...... development part supports the modeller in model documentation, construction and analysis.Different models for properties, phenomena, unit operations, processes can be developed and analysed here or retrieved from model libraries.The model equations are introduced in a simple text format and are translated......-aided methods provide. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task involving...

  13. Open innovation models - a case study of playing poker with chess pieces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goduscheit, René Chester; Jørgensen, Jacob Høj; Bergenholtz, Carsten

    2010-01-01

    The benefits of employing open innovation models are widely acknowledged among academics and practitioners. However, the organizational challenges in employing open innovation models as opposed to more closed ones are not extensively explored in the literature. This paper addresses these organiza......The benefits of employing open innovation models are widely acknowledged among academics and practitioners. However, the organizational challenges in employing open innovation models as opposed to more closed ones are not extensively explored in the literature. This paper addresses...

  14. A case study of regional catchment water quality modelling to identify pollution control requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabtree, B; Seward, A J; Thompson, L

    2006-01-01

    There are four ecologically important river catchments that contain candidate Special Areas of Conservation (cSACs) under the Habitats Directive in the Lake District National Park located in the North of England. These are the rivers Ehen, Kent, Derwent and Eden. For each cSAC, there are defined ecological criteria that include water quality targets to protect the designated species. Stretches of the riverine cSACs in each catchment are failing to meet these and other water quality targets. The Environment Agency commissioned a study of each catchment to provide the underpinning scientific knowledge to allow it to deliver its statutory obligations under the Habitats Directive. SIMCAT river water quality models were produced and used to predict the water quality impacts resulting from a number of water quality planning scenarios aimed at achieving full compliance with the Habitats Directive and other national and EEC water quality targets. The results indicated that further controls on effluent discharges will allow the majority of targets to be met but other sources of pollution will also need to be controlled. The outcome of the study also recognised that water quality improvements alone will not necessarily produce the required improvement to the ecological interest features in each cSAC.

  15. Aquifer characteristics and its modeling around an industrial complex, Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu, India: A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N C Mondal; V S Singh; R Rangarajan

    2009-06-01

    Anthropogenic pollution of shallow groundwater resources due to industrial activities is becoming a cause of concern in the east coastal belt of the state of Tamil Nadu,India.Integrated hydrogeological,geophysical and tracer studies were carried out in the coastal region encompassing an industrial complex.The objective has been to gain knowledge of aquifer characteristics,ascertaining groundwater movement and its flow direction,which would in turn reveal the possibility of contamination of groundwater regime and its better management.The results of multi-parameters and model study indicate that the velocity of groundwater flow ranges from 0.013 m/d to 0.22 m/d in and around the industrial complex in upstream western part of the catchment and 0.026 m/d to 0.054 m/d in the downstream eastern part,near the coast.These parameters are vital for the development of groundwater management scheme.

  16. Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, A Márcia; Real, Raimundo

    2012-01-01

    We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourability model based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation "A and not B") were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

  17. Soil-plant-animal transfer models to improve soil protection guidelines: A case study from Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues, S.M.; Pereira, M.E.; Duarte, A.C.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    Food chain models are essential tools to assess risks of soil contamination in view of product quality including fodder crops and animal products. Here we link soil to plant transfer (SPT) models for potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, U and Zn with models

  18. High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2014-05-01

    Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

  19. Modelling impacts of offshore wind farms on trophic web: the Courseulles-sur-Mer case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoux, Aurore; Pezy, Jean-Philippe; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; Tecchio, samuele; Degraer, Steven; Wilhelmsson, Dan; Niquil, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    The French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy. These offshore wind farms will integrate into an ecosystem already subject to a growing number of anthropogenic disturbances such as transportation, fishing, sediment deposit, and sediment extraction. The possible effects of this cumulative stressors on ecosystem functioning are still unknown, but they could impact their resilience, making them susceptible to changes from one stable state to another. Understanding the behaviour of these marine coastal complex systems is essential in order to anticipate potential state changes, and to implement conservation actions in a sustainable manner. Currently, there are no global and integrated studies on the effects of construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms. Moreover, approaches are generally focused on the conservation of some species or groups of species. Here, we develop a holistic and integrated view of ecosystem impacts through the use of trophic webs modelling tools. Trophic models describe the interaction between biological compartments at different trophic levels and are based on the quantification of flow of energy and matter in ecosystems. They allow the application of numerical methods for the characterization of emergent properties of the ecosystem, also called Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). These indices have been proposed as ecosystem health indicators as they have been demonstrated to be sensitive to different impacts on marine ecosystems. We present here in detail the strategy for analysing the potential environmental impacts of the construction of the Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (Bay of Seine) such as the reef effect through the use of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. Similar Ecopath simulations will be made in the future on the Le Tréport offshore wind farm site. Results will contribute to a better knowledge of the impacts of the offshore wind farms on ecosystems. They also allow to

  20. Studying Impact of Organizational Factors in Information Technology Acceptance in Accounting Occupation by Use of TAM Model (Iranian Case Study)

    OpenAIRE

    Akbar Allahyari; Morteza Ramazani

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, information technology attitudes as the beneficial part of industry, economic and culture. Accounting posits as profession that provide information for decision- making of users and in the complex world, organizations must use information technology to present information for users in time. This research is by purpose of studying impact of organizational factors in information technology acceptance by use of TAM model in study descriptive-surveying method that researcher has used to...

  1. Indoor terrestrial gamma dose rate mapping in France: a case study using two different geostatistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnery, E; Ielsch, G; Lajaunie, C; Cale, E; Wackernagel, H; Debayle, C; Guillevic, J

    2015-01-01

    information, which is exhaustive throughout France, could help in estimating the telluric gamma dose rates. Such an approach is possible using multivariate geostatistics and cokriging. Multi-collocated cokriging has been performed on 1*1 km(2) cells over the domain. This model used gamma dose rate measurement results and GUP classes. Our results provide useful information on the variability of the natural terrestrial gamma radiation in France ('natural background') and exposure data for epidemiological studies and risk assessment from low dose chronic exposures.

  2. A case study of the Scaffolding Clinical Practicum Model: is it culturally competent for Hispanic nursing students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lujan, Josefina; Vasquez, Rebecca

    2010-07-01

    The Institute of Medicine, Office of Minority Health, and the Health Resources and Services Administration have called for culturally competent teaching methods to promote the success of Hispanic nursing students. The article responds to this call by analyzing an innovative clinical practicum teaching method, the Scaffolding Clinical Model, in relation to the cultural competence needs of Hispanic nursing students. The analysis is presented through a case study of a cohort of predominantly (90%) Hispanic baccalaureate nursing students at a university on the United States-Mexico border. The cultural competence of the Scaffolding Clinical Model is analyzed by identifying how well it acknowledges and fosters the application of the four metaparadigms of Hispanic culture--conquest, collectivism, familism, and personalism--for Hispanic students. The metaparadigms are described and specific examples are offered about how the Model promotes application of the metaparadigms to accomplish cultural competence for Hispanic students. Recommendations for educators are also presented.

  3. On the Influence of a Simple Microphysics Parametrization on Radiation Fog Modelling: A Case Study During ParisFog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaojing; Musson-Genon, Luc; Dupont, Eric; Milliez, Maya; Carissimo, Bertrand

    2014-05-01

    A detailed numerical simulation of a radiation fog event with a single column model is presented, which takes into account recent developments in microphysical parametrizations. One-dimensional simulations are performed using the computational fluid dynamics model Code_Saturne and the results are compared to a very detailed in situ dataset collected during the ParisFog campaign, which took place near Paris, France, during the winter 2006-2007. Special attention is given to the detailed and complete diurnal simulations and to the role of microphysics in the fog life cycle. The comparison between the simulated and the observed visibility, in the single-column model case study, shows that the evolution of radiation fog is correctly simulated. Sensitivity simulations show that fog development and dissipation are sensitive to the droplet-size distribution through sedimentation/deposition processes but the aerosol number concentration in the coarse mode has a low impact on the time of fog formation.

  4. Implementing condition-based maintenance using modeling and simulation: a case study of a permanent magnet synchronous motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabid Quiroga Méndez

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available  This paper introduces condition-based maintenance (CBM architecture regarding an electrical application. Appropriate and efficient fault detection constitutes one of the major challenges associated with CBM and a model-based approach constitutes the way to achieve it. A case study using a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM is presented to illustrate implementing CBM using a neural network motor model. CBM may be implemented in real time using Matlab and dSpace. The difference between line currents' negative sequence components, predicted by a multilayer neural network, and the current values acquired from the motor is used as fault indicator. Experimental results have shown the efficiency of the proposed model in detecting several stator winding short faults in differing load conditions and fault severity, obtaining up to 95% reliability. 

  5. national Case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    from this, the national case study begins to conceptualise a new approach to ... teacher education environments and a piloting of a 'Train the Trainers' or .... Study) and TIMMS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) ..... Objective 7: Publish the materials in an open learning system format and integrate the.

  6. A probability model for evaluating the bias and precision of influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haber, M; An, Q; Foppa, I M; Shay, D K; Ferdinands, J M; Orenstein, W A

    2015-05-01

    As influenza vaccination is now widely recommended, randomized clinical trials are no longer ethical in many populations. Therefore, observational studies on patients seeking medical care for acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) are a popular option for estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We developed a probability model for evaluating and comparing bias and precision of estimates of VE against symptomatic influenza from two commonly used case-control study designs: the test-negative design and the traditional case-control design. We show that when vaccination does not affect the probability of developing non-influenza ARI then VE estimates from test-negative design studies are unbiased even if vaccinees and non-vaccinees have different probabilities of seeking medical care against ARI, as long as the ratio of these probabilities is the same for illnesses resulting from influenza and non-influenza infections. Our numerical results suggest that in general, estimates from the test-negative design have smaller bias compared to estimates from the traditional case-control design as long as the probability of non-influenza ARI is similar among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We did not find consistent differences between the standard errors of the estimates from the two study designs.

  7. Improving the modeling of disease data from the government surveillance system: a case study on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Valle

    Full Text Available The study of the effect of large-scale drivers (e.g., climate of human diseases typically relies on aggregate disease data collected by the government surveillance network. The usual approach to analyze these data, however, often ignores a changes in the total number of individuals examined, b the bias towards symptomatic individuals in routine government surveillance, and; c the influence that observations can have on disease dynamics. Here, we highlight the consequences of ignoring the problems listed above and develop a novel modeling framework to circumvent them, which is illustrated using simulations and real malaria data. Our simulations reveal that trends in the number of disease cases do not necessarily imply similar trends in infection prevalence or incidence, due to the strong influence of concurrent changes in sampling effort. We also show that ignoring decreases in the pool of infected individuals due to the treatment of part of these individuals can hamper reliable inference on infection incidence. We propose a model that avoids these problems, being a compromise between phenomenological statistical models and mechanistic disease dynamics models; in particular, a cross-validation exercise reveals that it has better out-of-sample predictive performance than both of these alternative models. Our case study in the Brazilian Amazon reveals that infection prevalence was high in 2004-2008 (prevalence of 4% with 95% CI of 3-5%, with outbreaks (prevalence up to 18% occurring during the dry season of the year. After this period, infection prevalence decreased substantially (0.9% with 95% CI of 0.8-1.1%, which is due to a large reduction in infection incidence (i.e., incidence in 2008-2010 was approximately one fifth of the incidence in 2004-2008.We believe that our approach to modeling government surveillance disease data will be useful to advance current understanding of large-scale drivers of several diseases.

  8. Predictive performance of DSGE model for small open economy – the case study of Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Jeřábek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. From the point of view of political practice is appropriate to seek a model that reached a quality prediction performance for all the variables. As monitored variables were used GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. The paper focuses on performance prediction evaluation of the small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model for the Czech republic, where Bayesian method are used for their parameters estimation, against different types of Bayesian and naive random walk model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. The results indicate that the DSGE model generates estimates that are competitive with other models used in this paper.

  9. Simulation modeling of nuclear steam generator water level process--a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao; Ou; Du

    2000-01-01

    Simulation modeling of the nuclear steam generator (SG) water level process in Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant (QNPP) is described in this paper. A practical methodology was adopted so that the model is both simple and accurate for control engineering implementation. The structure of the model is in the form of a transfer function, which was determined based on first-principles analysis and expert experience. The parameters of the model were obtained by taking advantage of the recorded historical response curves under the existing closed-loop control system. The results of process dimensional data verification and experimental tests demonstrate that the simulation model depicts the main dynamic characteristics of the SG water level process and is in accordance with the field recorded response curves. The model has been successfully applied to the design and test of an advanced digital feedwater control system in QNPP.

  10. Modeling of Iranian Cheetah Habitat using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (Case Study: Dare Anjir Wildlife Refuge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zamani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of habitat sustainability indexes is essential in wildlife management and conservation of rare species. Suitable habitats are required in wildlife managements and conservation also, they increase reproduction and survival rate of species. In this study in order to mapping habitat sustainability and recognizing habitat requirements of Iranian Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, field data from Dare Anjir  wildlife refuge were collected since autumn 2009 until summer 2011. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis approach has been used to develop habitat suitability model. In this method primary maps of  habitat variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, distance from water sources and environmental monitoring stations have been produced by Idrisi and Biomapper software and imported in Biomapper. The output scores obtained from the analysis showed that Iranian cheetah tends to mountain areas where has more topographical features for camouflage in order to hunting, and northern aspects which have more humidity, denser vegetation cover and more preys . Our result showed that the Iranian cheetah has medium niche width and prefer marginal habitats.

  11. Assessment of energy and economic performance of office building models: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, X. Y.; Ye, C. T.; Li, H. S.; Wang, X. L.; Ma, W. B.

    2016-08-01

    Energy consumption of building accounts for more than 37.3% of total energy consumption while the proportion of energy-saving buildings is just 5% in China. In this paper, in order to save potential energy, an office building in Southern China was selected as a test example for energy consumption characteristics. The base building model was developed by TRNSYS software and validated against the recorded data from the field work in six days out of August-September in 2013. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for energy performance of building envelope retrofitting; five envelope parameters were analyzed for assessing the thermal responses. Results indicated that the key sensitivity factors were obtained for the heat-transfer coefficient of exterior walls (U-wall), infiltration rate and shading coefficient (SC), of which the sum sensitivity factor was about 89.32%. In addition, the results were evaluated in terms of energy and economic analysis. The analysis of sensitivity validated against some important results of previous studies. On the other hand, the cost-effective method improved the efficiency of investment management in building energy.