WorldWideScience

Sample records for models case studies

  1. Mathematical modelling with case studies using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2014-01-01

    Introduction to Mathematical ModelingMathematical models An overview of the book Some modeling approaches Modeling for decision makingCompartmental Models Introduction Exponential decay and radioactivity Case study: detecting art forgeries Case study: Pacific rats colonize New Zealand Lake pollution models Case study: Lake Burley Griffin Drug assimilation into the blood Case study: dull, dizzy, or dead? Cascades of compartments First-order linear DEs Equilibrium points and stability Case study: money, money, money makes the world go aroundModels of Single PopulationsExponential growth Density-

  2. A Case Study Application Of Time Study Model In Paint ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a case study in the development and application of a time study model in a paint manufacturing company. The organization specializes in the production of different grades of paint and paint containers. The paint production activities include; weighing of raw materials, drying of raw materials, dissolving ...

  3. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    and the number of measures. Originality/value - A large number of case studies and surveys are now present in the literature of BSC. However, there is a lack of more theoretical and analytical modelling of the BSC. Our paper just throws a little light to this modelling approach....... variables: skills, customer base and work in process. We are able to show that only minimal changes may create large effects on profit. Research limitations/implications - Our analytical model is based on both assumed but also on case documented assumptions of a concrete model. In every such kind of model......Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...

  4. Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2008-01-01

    This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

  5. Singularity analysis in nonlinear biomathematical models: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meletlidou, E.; Leach, P.G.L.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the possession of the Painleve Property for certain values of the parameters in two biological models. The first is a metapopulation model for two species (prey and predator) and the second one is a study of a sexually transmitted disease, into which 'education' is introduced. We determine the cases for which the systems possess the Painleve Property, in particular some of the cases for which the equations can be directly integrated. We draw conclusions for these cases

  6. Computerised modelling for developmental biology : an exploration with case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bertens, Laura M.F.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies in developmental biology rely on the construction and analysis of models. This research presents a broad view of modelling approaches for developmental biology, with a focus on computational methods. An overview of modelling techniques is given, followed by several case studies. Using

  7. Formal Modeling in a Commercial Setting: A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, A.; Chechik, M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a case study conducted in collaboration with Nortel to demonstrate the feasibility of applying formal modeling techniques to telecommunication systems. A formal description language, SDL, was chosen by our qualitative CASE tool evaluation to model a multimedia-messaging system described by an 80-page natural language specification. Our model was used to identify errors in the software requirements document and to derive test suites, shadowing the existing development proc...

  8. Case study modelling for an ettringite treatment process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The process modelled in this study includes the formation of ettringite and the recovery of gibbsite through the decomposition of recycled ettringite. The modelling of this process was done using PHREEQC and the results presented in this paper are based on the outcome of different case studies that investigated how the ...

  9. Case studies of computer model applications in consulting practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebein, Gary; Paek, Hyun; Lorang, Mark; McGuinnes, Courtney

    2002-05-01

    Six case studies of computer model applications in a consulting practice will be presented to present the range of issues that can be studied with computer models as well as to understand the limitations of the technique at the present time. Case studies of elliptical conference rooms demonstrate basic acoustic ray principles and suggest remediation strategies. Models of a large themed entertainment venue with multiple amplified sound sources show how visualization of the acoustic ray paths can assist a consultant and client in value engineering locations and amounts of acoustic materials. The acoustic problems with an angled ceiling and large rear wall were studied when an historic church was converted to a music performance hall. The computer model of an historic hall did not present enough detailed information and was supplemented with physical model studies and full size mock-up tests of the insertion of an elevator door that would open directly into the concert room. Studies to demonstrate the amount of room model detail to obtain realistic auralizations were also conducted. The integration of architectural acoustic design and audio system design were studied in computer models of a large church sanctuary.

  10. Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Gustavsson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

  11. Open Innovation and Business Model: A Brazilian Company Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elzo Alves Aranha

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Open Innovation is increasingly being introduced in international and national organizations for the creation of value. Open innovation is a practical tool, requiring new strategies and decisions from managers for the exploitation of innovative activities. The basic question that this study seeks to answer is linked to the practice of open innovation in connection with the open business model geared towards the creation of value in a Brazilian company. This paper aims to present a case study that illustrates how open innovation offers resources to change the open business model in order to create value for the Brazilian company. The case study method of a company in the sector of pharma-chemical products was used. The results indicate that internal sources of knowledge, external sources of knowledge and accentuate working partnerships were adopted by company as strategies to offer resources to change the open business model in order to create value.

  12. Multidimensional Big Spatial Data Modeling Through A Case Study: Lte Rf Subsystem Power Consumption Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antón Castro, Francesc/François; Musiige, Deogratius; Mioc, Darka

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a case study for comparing different multidimensional mathematical modeling methodologies used in multidimensional spatial big data modeling and proposing a new technique. An analysis of multidimensional modeling approaches (neural networks, polynomial interpolation and homoto...

  13. Landslide Tsunami Generation Models: Validation and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, P.; Grilli, S. T.; Kirby, J. T.; Fryer, G. J.; Tappin, D. R.

    2002-12-01

    There has been a proliferation of landslide tsunami generation and propagation models in recent time, spurred largely by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models or techniques have been carefully validated. Moreover, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available geological data and interpretations into convincing case studies. The Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS) rapidly provides approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models. We present 3D laboratory experiments and 3D Boundary Element Method simulations that validate the tsunami sources given by TOPICS. Geowave is a combination of TOPICS with the fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq model FUNWAVE, which has been the subject of extensive testing and validation over the course of the last decade. Geowave is currently a tsunami community model made available to all tsunami researchers on the web site www.tsunamicommunity.org. We validate Geowave with case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. The benefits of Boussinesq wave propagation over traditional shallow water wave models is very apparent for these relatively steep and nonlinear waves. For the first time, a tsunami community model appear sufficiently powerful to reproduce all observations and records with the first numerical simulation. This can only be accomplished by first assembling geological data and interpretations into a reasonable tsunami source.

  14. Space engineering modeling and optimization with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pintér, János

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a selection of advanced case studies that cover a substantial range of issues and real-world challenges and applications in space engineering. Vital mathematical modeling, optimization methodologies and numerical solution aspects of each application case study are presented in detail, with discussions of a range of advanced model development and solution techniques and tools. Space engineering challenges are discussed in the following contexts: •Advanced Space Vehicle Design •Computation of Optimal Low Thrust Transfers •Indirect Optimization of Spacecraft Trajectories •Resource-Constrained Scheduling, •Packing Problems in Space •Design of Complex Interplanetary Trajectories •Satellite Constellation Image Acquisition •Re-entry Test Vehicle Configuration Selection •Collision Risk Assessment on Perturbed Orbits •Optimal Robust Design of Hybrid Rocket Engines •Nonlinear Regression Analysis in Space Engineering< •Regression-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Robust Design ...

  15. Performance Implications of Business Model Change: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Poláková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with changes in performance level introduced by the change of business model. The selected case is a small family business undergoing through substantial changes in reflection of structural changes of its markets. The authors used the concept of business model to describe value creation processes within the selected family business and by contrasting the differences between value creation processes before and after the change introduced they prove the role of business model as the performance differentiator. This is illustrated with the use of business model canvas constructed on the basis interviews, observations and document analysis. The two business model canvases allow for explanation of cause-and-effect relationships within the business leading to change in performance. The change in the performance is assessed by financial analysis of the business conducted over the period of 2006–2012 demonstrates changes in performance (comparing development of ROA, ROE and ROS having their lowest levels before the change of business model was introduced, growing after the introduction of the change, as well as the activity indicators with similar developments of the family business. The described case study contributes to the concept of business modeling with the arguments supporting its value as strategic tool facilitating decisions related to value creation within the business.

  16. Molecular modeling of protein materials: case study of elastin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarakanova, Anna; Buehler, Markus J.

    2013-09-01

    Molecular modeling of protein materials is a quickly growing area of research that has produced numerous contributions in fields ranging from structural engineering to medicine and biology. We review here the history and methods commonly employed in molecular modeling of protein materials, emphasizing the advantages for using modeling as a complement to experimental work. We then consider a case study of the protein elastin, a critically important ‘mechanical protein’ to exemplify the approach in an area where molecular modeling has made a significant impact. We outline the progression of computational modeling studies that have considerably enhanced our understanding of this important protein which endows elasticity and recoil to the tissues it is found in, including the skin, lungs, arteries and the heart. A vast collection of literature has been directed at studying the structure and function of this protein for over half a century, the first molecular dynamics study of elastin being reported in the 1980s. We review the pivotal computational works that have considerably enhanced our fundamental understanding of elastin's atomistic structure and its extraordinary qualities—focusing on two in particular: elastin's superb elasticity and the inverse temperature transition—the remarkable ability of elastin to take on a more structured conformation at higher temperatures, suggesting its effectiveness as a biomolecular switch. Our hope is to showcase these methods as both complementary and enriching to experimental approaches that have thus far dominated the study of most protein-based materials.

  17. Application of Learning Curves for Didactic Model Evaluation: Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Mödritscher

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The success of (online courses depends, among other factors, on the underlying didactical models which have always been evaluated with qualitative and quantitative research methods. Several new evaluation techniques have been developed and established in the last years. One of them is ‘learning curves’, which aim at measuring error rates of users when they interact with adaptive educational systems, thereby enabling the underlying models to be evaluated and improved. In this paper, we report how we have applied this new method to two case studies to show that learning curves are useful to evaluate didactical models and their implementation in educational platforms. Results show that the error rates follow a power law distribution with each additional attempt if the didactical model of an instructional unit is valid. Furthermore, the initial error rate, the slope of the curve and the goodness of fit of the curve are valid indicators for the difficulty level of a course and the quality of its didactical model. As a conclusion, the idea of applying learning curves for evaluating didactical model on the basis of usage data is considered to be valuable for supporting teachers and learning content providers in improving their online courses.

  18. Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: two case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Stefano; Avolio, Elenio; Petracca, Marco; Panegrossi, Giulia; Dietrich, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we show the results of the implementation of a tailored version of a methodology already presented in the bibliography to simulate flashes into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The method gives the flash rate for each thundercloud, which is detected by a labelling algorithm applied to the output of RAMS. The flash rate is computed by assuming a plane capacitor model, which is charged by the non-inductive graupel-ice charge separation mechanism and is discharged by lightning. The method explicitly considers the charging zone and uses the geometry of the graupel field to redistribute the flashes. An important feature of the method is that it gives the position and time of occurrence of each flash, allowing for a detailed and comprehensive display of the lightning activity during the simulation period. The method is applied to two case studies occurred over the Lazio Region, in central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to a thunderstorm characterized by an intense lightning activity (up to 2800 flashes per hour over the Lazio Region), and a moderate thunderstorm (up to 1600 flashes per hour over the same domain). The results show that the model is able to catch the main features of both storms and their relative differences. This feature is promising because the method is computationally fast and gives a tool to the forecaster to predict the lightning threat. Nevertheless there are errors in timing (O(3h)) and positioning (O(100km)) of the convection, which mirrors in timing and position errors of the lightning distribution. These model shortcomings presently limit the use of the lightning forecast; nevertheless the method can take advantages of future development of the model physics, initialization techniques, and ensemble forecast. A useful application of the method in an ensemble forecast is already suggested.

  19. Impacts modeling using the SPH particulate method. Case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debord, R.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this study is the modeling of the impact of melted metal on the reactor vessel head in the case of a core-meltdown accident. Modeling using the classical finite-element method alone is not sufficient but requires a coupling with particulate methods in order to take into account the behaviour of the corium. After a general introduction about particulate methods, the Nabor and SPH (smoothed particle hydrodynamics) methods are described. Then, the theoretical and numerical reliability of the SPH method is determined using simple cases. In particular, the number of neighbours significantly influences the preciseness of calculations. Also, the mesh of the structure must be adapted to the mesh of the fluid in order to reduce the edge effects. Finally, this study has shown that the values of artificial velocity coefficients used in the simulation of the BERDA test performed by the FZK Karlsruhe (Germany) are not correct. The domain of use of these coefficients was precised during a low speed impact. (J.S.)

  20. Forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever cases using ARIMA model: a case study in Asahan district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, Fazidah A.; Makmur, Tri; Saprin, S.

    2018-01-01

    Time series analysis had been increasingly used to forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever in many studies. Since no vaccine exist and poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is crucial. This study was conducted to determine trend and forecasting the occurrence of DHF in Asahan district, North Sumatera Province. Monthly reported dengue cases for the years 2012-2016 were obtained from the district health offices. A time series analysis was conducted by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast the occurrence of DHF. The results demonstrated that the reported DHF cases showed a seasonal variation. The SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the best model and adequate for the data. The SARIMA model for DHF is necessary and could applied to predict the incidence of DHF in Asahan district and assist with design public health maesures to prevent and control the diseases.

  1. Landslide tsunami case studies using a Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, P.; Grilli, S. T.; Kirby, J. T.; Fryer, G. J.; Tappin, D. R.

    Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS) with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

  2. Landslide tsunami case studies using a Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Watts

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

  3. Mathematical and computational modeling and simulation fundamentals and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Moeller, Dietmar P F

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation - a highly multi-disciplinary field with ubiquitous applications in science and engineering - is one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century. This book introduces to the use of Mathematical and Computational Modeling and Simulation in order to develop an understanding of the solution characteristics of a broad class of real-world problems. The relevant basic and advanced methodologies are explained in detail, with special emphasis on ill-defined problems. Some 15 simulation systems are presented on the language and the logical level. Moreover, the reader can accumulate experience by studying a wide variety of case studies. The latter are briefly described within the book but their full versions as well as some simulation software demos are available on the Web. The book can be used for University courses of different level as well as for self-study. Advanced sections are marked and can be skipped in a first reading or in undergraduate courses...

  4. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

    2015-01-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

  5. Directed Diffusion Modelling for Tesso Nilo National Parks Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasri, Indra; Safrianti, Ery

    2018-01-01

    — Directed Diffusion (DD has ability to achieve energy efficiency in Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). This paper proposes Directed Diffusion (DD) modelling for Tesso Nilo National Parks (TNNP) case study. There are 4 stages of scenarios involved in this modelling. It’s started by appointing of sampling area through GPS coordinate. The sampling area is determined by optimization processes from 500m x 500m up to 1000m x 1000m with 100m increment in between. The next stage is sensor node placement. Sensor node is distributed in sampling area with three different quantities i.e. 20 nodes, 30 nodes and 40 nodes. One of those quantities is choose as an optimized sensor node placement. The third stage is to implement all scenarios in stages 1 and stages 2 on DD modelling. In the last stage, the evaluation process to achieve most energy efficient in the combination of optimized sampling area and optimized sensor node placement on Direct Diffusion (DD) routing protocol. The result shows combination between sampling area 500m x 500m and 20 nodes able to achieve energy efficient to support a forest preventive fire system at Tesso Nilo National Parks.

  6. Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Luiz Zandoval Bonazzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the past, currently, thinking about innovation refers to a reflection of value cocreation through strategic alliances, customer approach and adoption of different business models. Thus, this study analyzed and described the innovation process of company DSM, connecting it to concepts of organizational development strategies and the theory of business model. This is a basic interpretive qualitative research, developed by means of a single case study conducted through interviews and documentary analysis. This study enabled us to categorize the company business model as an open, unbundled and innovative model, which makes innovation a dependent variable of this internal configuration of value creation and value capture. As a theoretical contribution, we highlight the convergence and complementarity of the “Business Model Canvas” tool and “Innovation Funnel,” used here, to analyze the empirical case.

  7. HARMONIC LOAD MODELING: A CASE STUDY OF 33 KV ABUJA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    model spectrum of the feeder under study revealed that the 11th and 13thharmonic orders have the highest percentage of amplitude relative to the ... model spectrum showed that the 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 32nd, 33rd and 34thharmonic orders have higher percentage of .... Design/Electromagnetic Transients including DC.

  8. Modelling and Analysis of Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Zhu, Huibiao; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2012-01-01

    that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy......Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... consumption. We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  9. Quantitative modelling and analysis of a Chinese smart grid: a stochastic model checking case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    that require novel methods and applications. One of the important issues in this context is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese smart grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy......Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology with the physical elements of a system, mainly for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... consumption.We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  10. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cattram D. Nguyen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. Analysis In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Conclusions As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  11. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Carlin, John B; Lee, Katherine J

    2017-01-01

    Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  12. HARMONIC LOAD MODELING: A CASE STUDY OF 33 KV ABUJA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    An in-depth study of the harmonic orders inherent in a power system network is required before mitigation techniques are adopted. This paper studied the harmonic orders of the 33 kV Abuja Steel Feeder modeled as a harmonic source using measured data. Readings of kW, kVar, kV and Hz were obtained using power ...

  13. A case study on point process modelling in disease mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Benes, Viktor

    2005-01-01

    methods. A particular problem which is thoroughly discussed is to determine a model for the background population density. The risk map shows a clear dependency with the population intensity models and the basic model which is adopted for the population intensity determines what covariates influence......We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence...

  14. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  15. A case study on point process modelling in disease mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Benes, Viktor

    2005-01-01

    We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence...... of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common areal level approaches we base the analysis on a Bayesian approach for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo...... methods. A particular problem which is thoroughly discussed is to determine a model for the background population density. The risk map shows a clear dependency with the population intensity models and the basic model which is adopted for the population intensity determines what covariates influence...

  16. Paradigms of knowledge management with systems modelling case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Pandey, Krishna Nath

    2016-01-01

    This book has been written by studying the knowledge management implementation at POWERGRID India, one of the largest power distribution companies in the world. The patterns which have led to models, both hypothesized and data-enabled, have been provided. The book suggests ways and means to follow for knowledge management implementation, especially for organizations with multiple business verticals to follow. The book underlines that knowledge is both an entity and organizational asset which can be managed. A holistic view of knowledge management implementation has been provided. It also emphasizes the phenomenological importance of human resource parameters as compared to that of technological parameters. Various hypotheses have been tested to validate the significant models hypothesized. This work will prove useful to corporations, researchers, and independent professionals working to study or implement knowledge management paradigms.

  17. A CASE STUDY ON POINT PROCESS MODELLING IN DISEASE MAPPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Beneš

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis (TBE, and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common area level approaches we base the analysis on a Bayesian approach for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A particular problem which is thoroughly discussed is to determine a model for the background population density. The risk map shows a clear dependency with the population intensity models and the basic model which is adopted for the population intensity determines what covariates influence the risk of TBE. Model validation is based on the posterior predictive distribution of various summary statistics.

  18. How to create a business model: Taxiwoman case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Macías Acosta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available El proyecto Taxiwoman es un caso exitoso de diseño de modelos de negocios mediante la aplicación de la metodología Canvas. Esta metodología permite estructurar adecuadamente todos los elementos de un proyecto ya que se presta apropiado para abarcar los aspectos claves de un negocio. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar la aplicación de la metodología Canvas a través del estudio del caso Taxiwoman. The Taxiwoman Project is a successful example of a business project design using the Canvas methodology. This methodology allows for the appropriate organization of projects in that it encompasses all of the fundamental business elements. This article’s objective is to present a successful use of Canvas methodology through the Taxiwoman case study.

  19. Information System Model as a Mobbing Prevention: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersin Karaman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to detect mobbing issues in Atatürk University, Economics and Administrative Science Facultyand provide an information system model to prevent mobbing and reduce the risk. The study consists of two parts;i detect mobbing situation via questionnaire and ii design an information system based on the findings of the first part. The questionnaire was applied to research assistants in the faculty. Five factors were analyzed and it is concluded that research assistants have not been exposed to mobbing except the fact that they have mobbing perception about task assignment process. Results show that task operational difficulty, task time and task period are the common mobbing issues.  In order to develop an information system to cope with these issues,   assignment of exam proctor process is addressed. Exam time, instructor location, classroom location and exam duration are the considered as decision variables to developed linear programming (LP model. Coefficients of these variables and constraints about the LP model are specified in accordance with the findings. It is recommended that research assistants entrusting process should be conducted by using this method to prevent and reduce the risk of mobbing perception in the organization.

  20. A new mathematical model in space optimization: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Kamilah; Kamis, Nor Hanimah; Sha'ari, Nor Shahida; Muhammad Halim, Nurul Suhada; Hashim, Syaril Naqiah

    2013-04-01

    Most of higher education institutions provide certain area known as learning centre for their students to study or having group discussions. However, some of the learning centers are not provided by optimum number of tables and seats to accommodate the students sufficiently. This study proposed a new mathematical model in optimizing the number of tables and seats at Laman Najib, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Shah Alam. An improvement of space capacity with maximum number of students who can facilitate the Laman Najib at the same time has been made by considering the type and size of tables that are appropriate for student's discussions. Our finding is compared with the result of Simplex method of linear programming to ensure that our new model is valid and consistent with other existing approaches. As a conclusion, we found that the round-type tables with six seats provide the maximum number of students who can use Laman Najib for their discussions or group studying. Both methods are also practical to use as alternative approaches in solving other space optimization problems.

  1. Modelling the South African fruit export infrastructure: A case study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    After a brief introduction to the problem, two models (a single-commodity graph theoretic model and a multi-commodity mathematical programming model) are derived for determining the maximal weekly flow or throughput of fresh fruit through the South African national export infrastructure. These models are solved for two ...

  2. Freight Calculation Model: A Case Study of Coal Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunianto, I. T.; Lazuardi, S. D.; Hadi, F.

    2018-03-01

    Coal has been known as one of energy alternatives that has been used as energy source for several power plants in Indonesia. During its transportation from coal sites to power plant locations is required the eligible shipping line services that are able to provide the best freight rate. Therefore, this study aims to obtain the standardized formulations for determining the ocean freight especially for coal distribution based on the theoretical concept. The freight calculation model considers three alternative transport modes commonly used in coal distribution: tug-barge, vessel and self-propelled barge. The result shows there are two cost components very dominant in determining the value of freight with the proportion reaching 90% or even more, namely: time charter hire and fuel cost. Moreover, there are three main factors that have significant impacts on the freight calculation, which are waiting time at ports, time charter rate and fuel oil price.

  3. Case Study: Modelling Telecommunication Systems using Concurrent ML

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Torben

    1998-01-01

    How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML.......How can telecommunication hardware be modelled in CML. How are generalities and parallelism captured in CML....

  4. Mathematical model for water quality (portable water): a case study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A water quality model for water-use-goal is proposed. The model is tested with a treatment schedule at a water works for portable water. It was observed that at least a 25 per cent savings can be achieved if the model is employed. Mathematics Connection Vol. 4 2004: 27-30 ...

  5. The Box Model and the Acoustic Sounder, a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Otto; Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1979-01-01

    Concentrations of SO2 in a large city during a subsidence situation are predicted as a function of time by means of a simple box model and the predictions are compared to actual SO2 concentration measurements. The agreement between model results and measurements is found to be excellent. The model...

  6. Case Study Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes the history of case study teaching, types of cases, and experimental data supporting their effectiveness. It also describes a model for comparing the efficacy of the various case study methods. (Contains 1 figure.)

  7. Model-based design languages: A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Cibrario Bertolotti, Ivan; Hu, Tingting; Navet, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Fast-paced innovation in the embedded systems domain puts an ever increasing pressure on effective software development methods, leading to the growing popularity of Model-Based Design (MBD). In this context, a proper choice of modeling languages and related tools - depending on design goals and problem qualities - is crucial to make the most of MBD benefits. In this paper, a comparison between two dissimilar approaches to modeling is carried out, with the goal of highlighting their relative ...

  8. Habitat modelling limitations - Puck Bay, Baltic Sea - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Marcin Węsławski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The Natura 2000 sites and the Coastal Landscape Park in a shallow marine bay in the southern Baltic have been studied in detail for the distribution of benthic macroorganisms, species assemblages and seabed habitats. The relatively small Inner Puck Bay (104.8 km2 is one of the most thoroughly investigated marine areas in the Baltic: research has been carried out there continuously for over 50 years. Six physical parameters regarded as critically important for the marine benthos (depth, minimal temperature, maximum salinity, light, wave intensity and sediment type were summarized on a GIS map showing unified patches of seabed and the near-bottom water conditions. The occurrence of uniform seabed forms is weakly correlated with the distributions of individual species or multi-species assemblages. This is partly explained by the characteristics of the local macrofauna, which is dominated by highly tolerant, eurytopic species with opportunistic strategies. The history and timing of the assemblage formation also explains this weak correlation. The distribution of assemblages formed by long-living, structural species (Zostera marina and other higher plants shows the history of recovery following earlier disturbances. In the study area, these communities are still in the stage of recovery and recolonization, and their present distribution does not as yet match the distribution of the physical environmental conditions favourable to them. Our results show up the limitations of distribution modelling in coastal waters, where the history of anthropogenic disturbances can distort the picture of the present-day environmental control of biota distributions.

  9. Resource Allocation Models and Accountability: A Jamaican Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Powell, Philip

    2008-01-01

    Higher education institutions (HEIs) may be funded privately, by the state or by a mixture of the two. Nevertheless, any state financing of HE necessitates a mechanism to determine the level of support and the channels through which it is to be directed; that is, a resource allocation model. Public funding, through resource allocation models,…

  10. Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Novosel, Tomislav

    2013-01-01

    and develop new energy policy towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, in order to comply with all of the presented tasks. Planning future energy demand, considering various policy options like regulation, fiscal and financial measures, becomes one of the crucial issues of future national...... energy strategy. This paper analyses Croatian long term energy demand and its effect on the future national GHG emissions. For that purpose the national energy demand model was constructed (NeD model). The model is comprised out of six modules each representing one sector, following Croatian national...... energy balance; industry, transport, households, services, agriculture and construction. For three of the modules (industry, transport and households) previously developed long term energy demand models were used, while for the remaining three new models were constructed. As an additional feature, new...

  11. Power electronic converters modeling and control with case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Bacha, Seddik; Bratcu, Antoneta Iuliana

    2014-01-01

    Modern power electronic converters are involved in a very broad spectrum of applications: switched-mode power supplies, electrical-machine-motion-control, active power filters, distributed power generation, flexible AC transmission systems, renewable energy conversion systems and vehicular technology, among them. Power Electronics Converters Modeling and Control teaches the reader how to analyze and model the behavior of converters and so to improve their design and control. Dealing with a set of confirmed algorithms specifically developed for use with power converters, this text is in two parts: models and control methods. The first is a detailed exposition of the most usual power converter models: ·        switched and averaged models; ·        small/large-signal models; and ·        time/frequency models. The second focuses on three groups of control methods: ·        linear control approaches normally associated with power converters; ·        resonant controllers b...

  12. Modelling the South African fruit export infrastructure: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FG Ortmann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available A description is provided of work performed as part of the fruit logistics infrastructure project commissioned by the South African Deciduous Fruit Producers’ Trust and coordinated by the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, as described in [Van Dyk FE & Maspero E, 2004, An analysis of the South African fruit logistics infrastructure, ORiON, 20(1, pp. 55–72]. After a brief introduction to the problem, two models (a single-commodity graph theoretic model and a multi-commodity mathematical programming model are derived for determining the maximal weekly flow or throughput of fresh fruit through the South African national export infrastructure. These models are solved for two extreme seasonal export scenarios and the solutions show that no export infrastructure expansion is required in the near future - observed bottlenecks are not fundamental to the infrastructure and its capacities, but are rather due to sub-optimal management and utilisation of the existing infrastructure.

  13. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region.

    OpenAIRE

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    Bicycle transport has traditionally been underrepresented in traffic models, because historically the main focus has been on modelling more resource-intensive investments in motor traffic roads and public transport. In order to decrease road congestion and to reduce the related health and societal problems, there is a growing interest in promoting more sustainable transport systems, with a particular emphasis on the bicycle as a sustainable transport alternative. Accordingly, the objective of...

  14. Case Study: Organotypic human in vitro models of embryonic ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morphogenetic fusion of tissues is a common event in embryonic development and disruption of fusion is associated with birth defects of the eye, heart, neural tube, phallus, palate, and other organ systems. Embryonic tissue fusion requires precise regulation of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions that drive proliferation, differentiation, and morphogenesis. Chemical low-dose exposures can disrupt morphogenesis across space and time by interfering with key embryonic fusion events. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task uses computer and in vitro models to elucidate consequences of developmental exposures. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task integrates multiple approaches to model responses to chemicals that leaad to birth defects, including integrative mining on ToxCast DB, ToxRefDB, and chemical structures, advanced computer agent-based models, and human cell-based cultures that model disruption of cellular and molecular behaviors including mechanisms predicted from integrative data mining and agent-based models. The purpose of the poster is to indicate progress on the CSS 17.02 Virtual Tissue Models Morphogenesis Task 1 products for the Board of Scientific Counselors meeting on Nov 16-17.

  15. Partial equilibrium modelCase study of the poultry market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Šobrová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with identifying the main determinants in the poultry agri-food chain in the Czech Republic and examines their relationships. The partial equilibrium model, defined as a seven-equation model in power form, is employed for this purpose. The analysis is based on both time-series and panel data of the main factors in the poultry market. The time-series as well as panel data contain annual data of selected variables for the period from 1995 to 2009. The analysis is focused on supply and demand of poultry meat, specifically on production, consumption and foreign trade in poultry meat in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the main factors influencing the poultry market are determined, then, an appropriate model is employed. The parameters of the model are estimated using the ordinary least squares method in statistical and econometric software. Estimated parameters confirm assumed relationships among the selected variables. Moreover, the long-term tendencies of the selected indicators are proven. Among other, the analysis proves an inertial consumption, the price level as the main factor influencing the consumption and one-way or mutual relationship among the selected variables. The statistical features of the model are satisfied as well – the estimated parameters are statistically significant, the model does not contain, neither the problem of autocorrelation of residuals nor the problem of heteroskedasticity.

  16. Case studies in Gaussian process modelling of computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, Marc C.; Anderson, Clive W.; Conti, Stefano; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we present a number of recent applications in which an emulator of a computer code is created using a Gaussian process model. Tools are then applied to the emulator to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is used both as an aid to model improvement and as a guide to how much the output uncertainty might be reduced by learning about specific inputs. Uncertainty analysis allows us to reflect output uncertainty due to unknown input parameters, when the finished code is used for prediction. The computer codes themselves are currently being developed within the UK Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics

  17. Modelling the South African fruit export infrastructure: A case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ortmann, FG

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available made available by the XPRESS–MP mixed-integer linear programming solver [4] that was used to solve the mathematical programming model (this solver was accessed via the NEOS Server for Optimisation [3]). One finds that some infrastructure components...

  18. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingly used worldwide in the management of water resources at watershed level. The application of these tools have been improved in recent time through the advent of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques which enhance the use of spatially ...

  19. Models of practice organisation using dental therapists: English case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, N; Harris, R V

    2011-08-12

    A new dental remuneration system based on bands of activity has changed the reward system operating in dental practices and influenced practitioner behaviour in relation to the delegation of tasks to English dental therapists (DTs). Since dental practitioners operate as independent contractors they are free to innovate. A variety of models incorporating DTs in general practice teams exist, some of which may overcome the apparent delegation constraints embedded within this system of remuneration. To describe the way different practices are organised to take account of DTs in their teams and identify whether any of these models address delegation disincentives arising from the system of remuneration. A purposive sample of six dental practices was identified, comprising two small, two medium and two large dental practices, including a variety of models of practice organisation. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with principal dentists, associate dentists, DTs, practice managers and dental hygienists (35 participants in total). A thematic analysis was applied to interview transcripts. The six dental practices demonstrated six different models of practice organisation which could be grouped into 'practice payment' and 'dentist payment' models according to whether the salary costs of the DT were met by a central practice fund or from the income of individual dentists in the team. In both of the large practices only some of the dentists in the team referred work to the DT because of reimbursement issues. In two practices the system was perceived to be satisfactory to all parties, one of these being a single-handed practice with two DTs. Although the remuneration system contained some potential disincentives to DT delegation, some practices innovated in their organisations to overcome these issues.

  20. Integration through relatedness in the conversational model: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haliburn, Joan

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the principles of the conversational model in two therapies with a patient, at 16 years of age and again 20 years later. Described is the first therapy of L, which commenced in hospital and continued twice weekly after discharge. L was an acutely disturbed 16-year-old female admitted for 4 months to the psychiatry ward, a dynamically oriented milieu of a University teaching hospital where I was training. This is followed by a brief description of L's second therapy. Supervision was through audiotape of sessions. At the conclusion of the first therapy, L was functioning well. Five years later, she married and had a child. She was referred to me again after she attempted suicide following an acute stressful event which resulted in hospitalization. She is more aware and reflective at present but continues to be vulnerable. Attention to certain aspects of the psychotherapeutic relationship is important as demonstrated in the conversational model.

  1. Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa de Alencar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

  2. Developing the DESCARTE Model: The Design of Case Study Research in Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolan, Clare M; Forbat, Liz; Smith, Annetta

    2016-04-01

    Case study is a long-established research tradition which predates the recent surge in mixed-methods research. Although a myriad of nuanced definitions of case study exist, seminal case study authors agree that the use of multiple data sources typify this research approach. The expansive case study literature demonstrates a lack of clarity and guidance in designing and reporting this approach to research. Informed by two reviews of the current health care literature, we posit that methodological description in case studies principally focuses on description of case study typology, which impedes the construction of methodologically clear and rigorous case studies. We draw from the case study and mixed-methods literature to develop the DESCARTE model as an innovative approach to the design, conduct, and reporting of case studies in health care. We examine how case study fits within the overall enterprise of qualitatively driven mixed-methods research, and the potential strengths of the model are considered. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Facilitating Data Driven Business Model Innovation - A Case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Torben Cæsar Bisgaard; Andersen, Troels Christian; Aagaard, Annabeth

    2016-01-01

    , that gathers knowledge is of great importance. The SMEs have little, if no experience, within data handling, data analytics, and working with structured Business Model Innovation (BMI), that relates to both new and conventional products, processes and services. This new frontier of data and BMI will have...... ability to adapt these new DDBM depends on the ability to pick up, share and develop knowledge between customers, partners and the network. This knowledge can be embedded into core BMs and constitutes a strategic opportunity enabling businesses to extract value from data into BMI, resulting in DDBMs...... core BMs, through the downloading, seeing and sensing phase of the BMI. This fact inhibits the sharing- and quality of knowledge. This in turn is limiting knowledge to narrow view and not other persons-, technical-, organisational-, and user/customer knowledge [2]. The outcome does not release the full...

  4. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  5. Assessment and Reduction of Model Parametric Uncertainties: A Case Study with A Distributed Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Y.; Liang, X. Z.; Duan, Q.; Xu, J.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the parameters of a hydrological model need to be quantified and reduced for it to be useful for operational hydrological forecasting and decision support. An uncertainty quantification framework is presented to facilitate practical assessment and reduction of model parametric uncertainties. A case study, using the distributed hydrological model CREST for daily streamflow simulation during the period 2008-2010 over ten watershed, was used to demonstrate the performance of this new framework. Model behaviors across watersheds were analyzed by a two-stage stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure, using LH-OAT method for screening out insensitive parameters, followed by MARS-based Sobol' sensitivity indices for quantifying each parameter's contribution to the response variance due to its first-order and higher-order effects. Pareto optimal sets of the influential parameters were then found by the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization procedure, using MARS model for approximating the parameter-response relationship and SCE-UA algorithm for searching the optimal parameter sets of the adaptively updated surrogate model. The final optimal parameter sets were validated against the daily streamflow simulation of the same watersheds during the period 2011-2012. The stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure efficiently reduced the number of parameters that need to be calibrated from twelve to seven, which helps to limit the dimensionality of calibration problem and serves to enhance the efficiency of parameter calibration. The adaptive MARS-based multi-objective calibration exercise provided satisfactory solutions to the reproduction of the observed streamflow for all watersheds. The final optimal solutions showed significant improvement when compared to the default solutions, with about 65-90% reduction in 1-NSE and 60-95% reduction in |RB|. The validation exercise indicated a large improvement in model performance with about 40

  6. Value shaping in networked business modeling : Case studies of sustainability-oriented innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oskam, I.F.; Bossink, Bart; de Man, Ard-Pieter

    2018-01-01

    A stream of literature is emerging where network development and business modeling intersect. Various authors emphasize that networks influence business models. This paper extends this stream of literature by studying two cases in which we analyze how business modeling and networking interact over

  7. Fitting additive hazards models for case-cohort studies: a multiple imputation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jinhyouk; Harel, Ofer; Kang, Sangwook

    2016-07-30

    In this paper, we consider fitting semiparametric additive hazards models for case-cohort studies using a multiple imputation approach. In a case-cohort study, main exposure variables are measured only on some selected subjects, but other covariates are often available for the whole cohort. We consider this as a special case of a missing covariate by design. We propose to employ a popular incomplete data method, multiple imputation, for estimation of the regression parameters in additive hazards models. For imputation models, an imputation modeling procedure based on a rejection sampling is developed. A simple imputation modeling that can naturally be applied to a general missing-at-random situation is also considered and compared with the rejection sampling method via extensive simulation studies. In addition, a misspecification aspect in imputation modeling is investigated. The proposed procedures are illustrated using a cancer data example. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. A CASE STUDY OF MODELING A TORUS IN DIFFERENT MODELING SOFTWARES

    OpenAIRE

    VELJKOVIĆ Milica; KRASIĆ Sonja; PEJIĆ Petar; TOŠIĆ Zlata

    2017-01-01

    Modeling of the complex geometric shapes requires the use of appropriate softwares. This study analyzes the process of modeling with two different computer softwares, AutoCAD and Rhinoceros. The aim is to demonstrate the similarities and differences between these softwares when used for modeling torus, a double curved geometric surface. The two modeling processes are compared in order to investigate the potentials of these softwares in the modeling of an architectural structure comprising a s...

  9. Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues

  10. Modelling, Simulation and Optimisation of Utility – Service Provision for Households: Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Strzelecka, A.; Skworcow, P.; Ulanicki, B.

    2014-01-01

    In the research presented in this paper household case studies were considered. Main objective of this research is to investigate models and algorithms for alternative approaches to current utility–service provision. This paper is focused on case studies that consider standard solutions to utility–service provision problems and propose improvements to these solutions. Results are obtained using a simulation system developed in C#. The simulation system evaluates feasibility of proposed candid...

  11. Studying the Behaviour of Model of Mirror Neuron System in Case of Autism

    OpenAIRE

    Shikha Anirban; Mohammad Hanif Ali

    2012-01-01

    Several experiment done by the researchers conducted that autism is caused by the dysfunctional mirror neuron system and the dysfunctions of mirror neuron system is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. In the present work those experiments were studied as well as studying a model of mirror neuron system called MNS2 developed by a research group. This research examined the behavior of the model in case of autism and compared the result with those studies conducting dysfunctions of m...

  12. A CASE STUDY OF MODELING A TORUS IN DIFFERENT MODELING SOFTWARES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VELJKOVIĆ Milica

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of the complex geometric shapes requires the use of appropriate softwares. This study analyzes the process of modeling with two different computer softwares, AutoCAD and Rhinoceros. The aim is to demonstrate the similarities and differences between these softwares when used for modeling torus, a double curved geometric surface. The two modeling processes are compared in order to investigate the potentials of these softwares in the modeling of an architectural structure comprising a shell of the torus. After a detailed comparative analysis, the essential characteristics and shortcomings of these programs are emphasized and they were used to recommend the more appropriate one.

  13. Sourcing organization and management model in spare parts business : Case study

    OpenAIRE

    Kilpeläinen, Kimmo

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find the best sourcing organization and management model in the spare parts business, co-operating with global sourcing in division-structured organization. The first phase of the research was done using quantitative research methods. The organization models A, B, and C were built based on the findings from literature review and an internal survey in the global spare parts organization. The internal survey covered answers from 14 countries inside case study co...

  14. Modelling in Action. Examining How Students Approach Modelling Real Life Situations. Three Case Studies. Model of the Movement of an Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Eugenia Marmolejo

    2015-01-01

    By means of three case studies, we will present two mathematical modelling activities that are suitable for students enrolled in senior high school and the first year of mathematics at university level. The activities have been designed to enrich the learning process and promote the formation of vital modelling skills. In case studies one and two,…

  15. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  16. Casing study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roche, P.

    2000-12-01

    An unorthodox method of casing drilling used by Tesco Corporation at a gas well in Wyoming to drill deeper using casings as drillpipe is discussed. The process involves either rotating the casing as drill string or using a downhole mud motor to rotate the bit. In this instance, the surface hole and the production hole were casing-drilled to a record 8,312 feet by rotating the casing. The 8 1/2-inch surface hole was drilled with 7-inch casing to 1,200 feet using a Tesco underreamer and a polycrystalline pilot bit; drilling and cementing was completed in 12 1/2 hours. The 6 1/4-inch production hole was drilled with 4 1/2-inch casing and the bottomhole assembly was retrieved after 191 hours rotating. This case was the first in which the entire well was casing-drilled from surface to TD. Penetration rate compared favorably with conventional methods: 12 1/2 hours for casing-drilling to 18.9 hours for conventional drilling, despite the fact that the casing-drilling technology is still in its infancy. It is suggested that casing-drilling has the potential to eliminate the need for the drillpipe entirely. If these expectations were to be realised, casing-drilling could be one of the most radical drilling changes in the history of the oil and gas industry. 1 photo.

  17. Modelling soft error probability in fi rmware: A case study | Kourie ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This case study involves an analysis of firmware that controls explosions in mining operations. The purpose is to estimate the probability that external disruptive events (such as electro-magnetic interference) could drive the firmware into a state which results in an unintended explosion. Two probabilistic models are built, ...

  18. An Alternative Counseling Model for Alcohol Abuse in College: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, B. Grant; Curry, Jennifer; Freeman, Mark S.; Kuch, Tyson H.

    2010-01-01

    Abstinence education remains a prevailing approach for addressing college student alcohol abuse. This case study illustrates an alternative method of intervening that combines motivational interviewing, harm reduction, and a brief solution-focused model. The counseling approach illustrated emphasizes reduction in, rather than abstinence from,…

  19. Performance estimation of networked business models : Case study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heikkilä, M.; Solaimani, H. (Sam); Kuivaniemi, L.; Suoranta, M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector

  20. Developing a Model and Applications for Probabilities of Student Success: A Case Study of Predictive Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Carol Elaine

    2014-01-01

    This case study relates to distance learning students on open access courses. It demonstrates the use of predictive analytics to generate a model of the probabilities of success and retention at different points, or milestones, in a student journey. A core set of explanatory variables has been established and their varying relative importance at…

  1. Using a contextualized sensemaking model for interaction design: A case study of tumor contouring

    OpenAIRE

    Aselmaa, A.; van Herk, Marcel; Laprie, Anne; Nestle, Ursula; Götz, Irina; Wiedenmann, Nicole; Schimek-Jasch, Tanja; Picaud, Francois; Syrykh, Charlotte; Cagetti, Leonel V.; Jolnerovski, Maria; Song, Y.; Goossens, R.H.M.

    2017-01-01

    Sensemaking theories help designers understand the cognitive processes of a user when he/she performs a complicated task. This paper introduces a two-step approach of incorporating sensemaking support within the design of health information systems by: (1) modeling the sensemaking process of physicians while performing a task, and (2) identifying software interaction design requirements that support sensemaking based on this model. The two-step approach is presented based on a case study of t...

  2. Performance Estimation of Networked Business Models: Case Study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marikka Heikkilä

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector aiming to jointly provide a new service for business and private customers. The duration of the research study is 3 years. Findings: We propose that a balanced set of performance indicators can be defined by paying attention to all main components of the business model, enriched with of network collaboration. The results highlight the importance of measuring all main components of the business model and also the business network partners’ view on trust, contracts and fairness. Research implications: This article contributes to the business model literature by combining business modelling with performance evaluation. The article points out that it is essential to create metrics that can be applied to evaluate and improve the business model blueprints, but it is also important to measure business collaboration aspects. Practical implications: Companies have already adopted Business model canvas or similar business model tools to innovate new business models. We suggest that companies continue their business model innovation work by agreeing on a set of performance metrics, building on the business model components model enriched with measures of network collaboration. Originality/value: This article contributes to the business model literature and praxis by combining business modelling with performance evaluation.

  3. How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model output: four-stage model case-study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    -year model outputs uncertainty. More precisely, this study contributes to the existing literature on the topic by investigating the effects on model outputs uncertainty deriving from the use of (i) different probability distributions in the sampling process, (ii) different assignment algorithms, and (iii...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio......If not properly quantified, the uncertainty inherent to transport models makes analyses based on their output highly unreliable. This study investigated uncertainty in four-stage transport models by analysing a Danish case-study: the Næstved model. The model describes the demand of transport...

  4. Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    /24 degree, if in the end you only look at monthly runoff? In this study an attempt is made to link time and space scales in the VIC model, to study the added value of a higher spatial resolution-model for different time steps. In order to do this, four different VIC models were constructed for the Thur basin in North-Eastern Switzerland (1700 km²), a tributary of the Rhine: one lumped model, and three spatially distributed models with a resolution of respectively 1x1 km, 5x5 km, and 10x10 km. All models are run at an hourly time step and aggregated and calibrated for different time steps (hourly, daily, monthly, yearly) using a novel Hierarchical Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique (Vořechovský, 2014). For each time and space scale, several diagnostics like Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, all the quantiles of the discharge etc., are calculated in order to compare model performance over different time and space scales for extreme events like floods and droughts. Next to that, the effect of time and space scale on the parameter distribution can be studied. In the end we hope to find a link for optimal time and space scale combinations.

  5. CASE STUDY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV infection has several oral manifestations, including oral candidiasis and oral hairy leucoplakia. Occasionally unusual presentations requiring rigorous investigations are seen, and in these cases the diagnosis sometimes remains a dilemma owing to limited investigation facilities.1-3 We present the case of a patient who.

  6. The Australian 'grey nomad' and aged care nurse practitioner models of practice: a case study analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hungerford, Catherine; Prosser, Brenton; Davey, Rachel; Clark, Shannon

    2016-01-01

    The Nurse Practitioner - Aged Care Models of Practice Initiative supported the roll-out of a range of nurse practitioner (NP) models of practice, across Australia. One of these models was a community-based clinic-located practice, situated in a remote tourist destination where there is no resident general practitioner. Services were delivered by a NP to the local population as well as the many seasonal tourists passing through the region. These seasonal tourists included a growing number of older people, many of whom had chronic health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiac disease. A case study approach was taken to test and develop connections between the theory of nursing models and the practice of the NP. This approach enabled the development of a detailed explanation of the community-based, clinic-located NP model, including the model's associated enablers and challenges. The case study approach also supported further theoretical development of nursing models more generally. Enablers of the NP model were the sponsoring not-for-profit organisation, which provided pre-existing structures for clinical governance and general management, as well as funding; and the collaborative agreements negotiated at a systems level between the NP, other health professionals, and a variety of service providers. Challenges to the model included the organisation's limited capacity to back-fill the NP for leave and professional development entitlements obtaining recurrent funding to sustain the model. Also identified was the need for the organisation to more clearly explain the NP role to consumers of the services being delivered. Theoretically, analysis led to the inclusion of an additional component of the nursing model: influence of context. This component is important because it highlights the way in which nursing models of practice are affected by local conditions. The community-based, clinic-located NP model of practice described in this article provides a

  7. Using cumulative sums of martingale residuals for model checking in nested case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgan, Ørnulf; Zhang, Ying

    2015-09-01

    Standard use of Cox regression requires collection of covariate information for all individuals in a cohort even when only a small fraction of them experiences the event of interest (fail). This may be very expensive for large cohorts. Further in biomarker studies, it will imply a waste of valuable biological material that one may want to save for future studies. A nested case-control study offers a useful alternative. For this design, covariate information is only needed for the failing individuals (cases) and a sample of controls selected from the cases' at-risk sets. Methods based on martingale residuals are useful for checking the fit of Cox's regression model for cohort data. But similar methods have so far not been developed for nested case-control data. In this article, it is described how one may define martingale residuals for nested case-control data, and it is shown how plots and tests based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals may be used to check model fit. The plots and tests may be obtained using available software. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Performance Estimation of Networked Business Models: Case Study on a Finnish eHealth Service Project

    OpenAIRE

    Marikka Heikkilä; Sam Solaimani; Aki Soudunsaari; Mila Hakanen; Leni Kuivaniemi; Mari Suoranta

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose and demonstrate a framework for estimating performance in a networked business model. Design/methodology/approach: Our approach is design science, utilising action research in studying a case of four independent firms in Health & Wellbeing sector aiming to jointly provide a new service for business and private customers. The duration of the research study is 3 years. Findings: We propose that a balanced set of performance indicators...

  9. Preference learning for cognitive modeling: a case study on entertainment preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yannakakis, Georgios; Maragoudakis, Manolis; Hallam, John

    2009-01-01

    Learning from preferences, which provide means for expressing a subject's desires, constitutes an important topic in machine learning research. This paper presents a comparative study of four alternative instance preference learning algorithms (both linear and nonlinear). The case study investiga......Learning from preferences, which provide means for expressing a subject's desires, constitutes an important topic in machine learning research. This paper presents a comparative study of four alternative instance preference learning algorithms (both linear and nonlinear). The case study...... with Gaussian processes--while the remaining two are custom-designed approaches for the problem under investigation: meta-LMA and neuroevolution. Preference learning techniques are combined with feature set selection methods permitting the construction of effective preference models, given suitable individual...... in 66.66% of cases on previously unseen data (p-value = 0.0136) of a second physical activity control experiment. Results indicate the benefit of the use of neuroevolution and sequential forward selection for the investigated complex case study of cognitive modeling in physical games....

  10. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  11. A confidence building exercise in data and identifiability: Modeling cancer chemotherapy as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Marisa C; Jain, Harsh V

    2017-10-27

    Mathematical modeling has a long history in the field of cancer therapeutics, and there is increasing recognition that it can help uncover the mechanisms that underlie tumor response to treatment. However, making quantitative predictions with such models often requires parameter estimation from data, raising questions of parameter identifiability and estimability. Even in the case of structural (theoretical) identifiability, imperfect data and the resulting practical unidentifiability of model parameters can make it difficult to infer the desired information, and in some cases, to yield biologically correct inferences and predictions. Here, we examine parameter identifiability and estimability using a case study of two compartmental, ordinary differential equation models of cancer treatment with drugs that are cell cycle-specific (taxol) as well as non-specific (oxaliplatin). We proceed through model building, structural identifiability analysis, parameter estimation, practical identifiability analysis and its biological implications, as well as alternative data collection protocols and experimental designs that render the model identifiable. We use the differential algebra/input-output relationship approach for structural identifiability, and primarily the profile likelihood approach for practical identifiability. Despite the models being structurally identifiable, we show that without consideration of practical identifiability, incorrect cell cycle distributions can be inferred, that would result in suboptimal therapeutic choices. We illustrate the usefulness of estimating practically identifiable combinations (in addition to the more typically considered structurally identifiable combinations) in generating biologically meaningful insights. We also use simulated data to evaluate how the practical identifiability of the model would change under alternative experimental designs. These results highlight the importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms

  12. Contributions of the Model of Modelling Diagram to the Learning of Ionic Bonding: Analysis of A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, Paula Cristina Cardoso; Justi, Rosária

    2011-08-01

    Current proposals for science education recognise the importance of students' involvement in activities aimed at favouring the understanding of science as a human, dynamic and non-linear construct. Modelling-based teaching is one of the alternatives through which to address such issues. Modelling-based teaching activities for ionic bonding were introduced. This topic was chosen because of both the high incidence of students' alternative conceptions and its abstract nature, which justify the need for understanding complex models. The diagram Model of Modelling was used as a theoretical construct during the development of the teaching activities, which were implemented in a Brazilian medium level public school class (16-18 years old students). The data collected were the written material and models produced by the students, the content-knowledge tests, the video-recording of the lessons, and the observations and field notes of both the teacher and the researcher who observed the lessons. The analysis of such data enabled the production of case studies for each of the student groups. In this paper, we analyse one of the case studies, looking for evidence about the way that specific elements of the teaching strategy supported students' learning. It supported our belief in the use of the Model of Modelling diagram as a theoretical construct with which to develop and analyse modelling-based teaching activities.

  13. Using a contextualized sensemaking model for interaction design: A case study of tumor contouring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aselmaa, Anet; van Herk, Marcel; Laprie, Anne; Nestle, Ursula; Götz, Irina; Wiedenmann, Nicole; Schimek-Jasch, Tanja; Picaud, Francois; Syrykh, Charlotte; Cagetti, Leonel V; Jolnerovski, Maria; Song, Yu; Goossens, Richard H M

    2017-01-01

    Sensemaking theories help designers understand the cognitive processes of a user when he/she performs a complicated task. This paper introduces a two-step approach of incorporating sensemaking support within the design of health information systems by: (1) modeling the sensemaking process of physicians while performing a task, and (2) identifying software interaction design requirements that support sensemaking based on this model. The two-step approach is presented based on a case study of the tumor contouring clinical task for radiotherapy planning. In the first step of the approach, a contextualized sensemaking model was developed to describe the sensemaking process based on the goal, the workflow and the context of the task. In the second step, based on a research software prototype, an experiment was conducted where three contouring tasks were performed by eight physicians respectively. Four types of navigation interactions and five types of interaction sequence patterns were identified by analyzing the gathered interaction log data from those twenty-four cases. Further in-depth study on each of the navigation interactions and interaction sequence patterns in relation to the contextualized sensemaking model revealed five main areas for design improvements to increase sensemaking support. Outcomes of the case study indicate that the proposed two-step approach was beneficial for gaining a deeper understanding of the sensemaking process during the task, as well as for identifying design requirements for better sensemaking support. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. D Modelling and Rapid Prototyping for Cardiovascular Surgical Planning - Two Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocerino, E.; Remondino, F.; Uccheddu, F.; Gallo, M.; Gerosa, G.

    2016-06-01

    In the last years, cardiovascular diagnosis, surgical planning and intervention have taken advantages from 3D modelling and rapid prototyping techniques. The starting data for the whole process is represented by medical imagery, in particular, but not exclusively, computed tomography (CT) or multi-slice CT (MCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). On the medical imagery, regions of interest, i.e. heart chambers, valves, aorta, coronary vessels, etc., are segmented and converted into 3D models, which can be finally converted in physical replicas through 3D printing procedure. In this work, an overview on modern approaches for automatic and semiautomatic segmentation of medical imagery for 3D surface model generation is provided. The issue of accuracy check of surface models is also addressed, together with the critical aspects of converting digital models into physical replicas through 3D printing techniques. A patient-specific 3D modelling and printing procedure (Figure 1), for surgical planning in case of complex heart diseases was developed. The procedure was applied to two case studies, for which MCT scans of the chest are available. In the article, a detailed description on the implemented patient-specific modelling procedure is provided, along with a general discussion on the potentiality and future developments of personalized 3D modelling and printing for surgical planning and surgeons practice.

  15. Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Modelling as a Tool to Support Risk Assessment: Three Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Mielke

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this contribution we present three case studies of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK modelling in regulatory risk assessment. (1 Age-dependent lower enzyme expression in the newborn leads to bisphenol A (BPA blood levels which are near the levels of the tolerated daily intake (TDI at the oral exposure as calculated by EFSA. (2 Dermal exposure of BPA by receipts, car park tickets, and so forth, contribute to the exposure towards BPA. However, at the present levels of dermal exposure there is no risk for the adult. (3 Dermal exposure towards coumarin via cosmetic products leads to external exposures of two-fold the TDI. PBTK modeling helped to identify liver peak concentration as the metric for liver toxicity. After dermal exposure of twice the TDI, the liver peak concentration was lower than that present after oral exposure with the TDI dose. In the presented cases, PBTK modeling was useful to reach scientifically sound regulatory decisions.

  16. SVM and ANFIS Models for precipitaton Modeling (Case Study: GonbadKavouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zabet Pishkhani

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In recent years, according to the intelligent models increased as new techniques and tools in hydrological processes such as precipitation forecasting. ANFIS model has good ability in train, construction and classification, and also has the advantage that allows the extraction of fuzzy rules from numerical information or knowledge. Another intelligent technique in recent years has been used in various areas is support vector machine (SVM. In this paper the ability of artificial intelligence methods including support vector machine (SVM and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS were analyzed in monthly precipitation prediction. Materials and Methods: The study area was the city of Gonbad in Golestan Province. The city has a temperate climate in the southern highlands and southern plains, mountains and temperate humid, semi-arid and semi-arid in the north of Gorganroud river. In total, the city's climate is temperate and humid. In the present study, monthly precipitation was modeled in Gonbad using ANFIS and SVM and two different database structures were designed. The first structure: input layer consisted of mean temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind speed at Gonbad station. The second structure: According to Pearson coefficient, the monthly precipitation data were used from four stations: Arazkoose, Bahalke, Tamar and Aqqala which had a higher correlation with Gonbad station precipitation. In this study precipitation data was used from 1995 to 2012. 80% data were used for model training and the remaining 20% of data for validation. SVM was developed from support vector machines in the 1990s by Vapnik. SVM has been widely recognized as a powerful tool to deal with function fitting problems. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS refers, in general, to an adaptive network which performs the function of a fuzzy inference system. The most commonly used fuzzy system in ANFIS architectures is the Sugeno model

  17. Modeling of Residential Water Demand Using Random Effect Model,Case Study: Arak City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hossein Sajadifar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study tries to apply the “Partial Adjustment Model” and “Random Effect Model” techniques to the Stone-Greay’s linear expenditure system, in order to estimate the "Residential Seasonal Demand" for water in Arak city. Per capita water consumption of family residences is regressed on marginal price, per capita income, price of other goods, average temperature and average rainfall. Panel data approaches based on a sample of 152 observations from Arak city referred to 1993-2003. From the estimation of the Elasticity-price of the residential water demand, we want to know how a policy of responsive pricing can lead to more efficient household water consumption inArakcity. Results also indicated that summer price elasticity was twice the winter and price and income elasticity was less than 1 in all cases.

  18. Organising nursing practice into care models that catalyse quality: A clinical nurse leader case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Miriam; Spiva, LeeAnna; Su, Wei; Hites, Lisle

    2018-02-09

    To determine the power of a conceptual clinical nurse leader practice model to explain the care model's enactment and trajectory in real world settings. How nursing, organised into specific models of care, functions as an organisational strategy for quality is not well specified. Clinical nurse leader integrated care delivery is one emerging model with growing adoption. A recently validated clinical nurse leader practice model conceptualizes the care model's characteristics and hypothesizes their mechanisms of action. Pattern matching case study design and mixed methods were used to determine how the care model's constructs were operationalized in one regional United States health system that integrated clinical nurse leaders into their care delivery system in 2010. The findings confirmed the empirical presence of all clinical nurse leader practice model constructs and provided a rich description of how the health system operationalized the constructs in practice. The findings support the hypothesized model pathway from Clinical Nurse Leader structuring to Clinical Nurse Leader practice and outcomes. The findings indicate analytic generalizability of the clinical nurse leader practice model. Nursing practice organised to focus on microsystem care processes can catalyse multidisciplinary engagement with, and consistent enactment of, quality practices. The model has great potential for transferability across diverse health systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Hřebíček

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

  20. Implementing the Serial Number Tracking model in telecommunications: a case study of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Polovina

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The case study describes the implementation of the SNT (Serial Number Tracking model in an integrated information system, as a means of business support in a Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Objectives: The goal was to show how to make the best practice of the SNT implementation in the telecommunication industry, with referencing to problems which have arisen during the implementation. Methods/Approach: the case study approach was used based on the documentation about the SNT model and the business intelligence system in the Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Results: Economic aspects of the effectiveness of the SNT model are described and confirmed based on actual tangible and predominantly on intangible benefits. Conclusions: Advantages of the SNT model are multiple: operating costs for storage and transit of goods were reduced, accuracy of deliveries and physical inventory was improved; a new source of information for the business intelligence system was obtained; operating processes in the distribution of goods were advanced; transit insurance costs decreased and there were fewer cases of fraudulent behaviour.

  1. Tsunami landslide source models as a tool for analyzing complex case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilli, S. T.; Watts, P.; Kirby, J. T.

    2003-12-01

    In tsunami generation, coseismic displacement sources can essentially be considered as having negligible duration (i.e., of a few to a few dozen seconds), as compared to characteristic times of tsunami propagation (i.e., period of at least several minutes). By contrast, submarine landslides, when they occur in or near very deep water areas, may last for a much longer time and thus produce tsunami sources of significant duration as compared to tsunami period. In analyzing data from landslide tsunami case studies, and in particular wave data, it is therefore very important to be able to understand the full history of both landslide and tsunami generation, in order to accurately estimate landslide time of failure based on such data. Recent three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models developed to simulate tsunami generation by complex landslide scenarios offer such possibilities. Using these models, together with field data, the authors were able to identify both likely types and times of failure in specific case studies, in order to reproduce at best the observations in both the near and far field. To obtain far field results, the modeled 3D tsunami source is used as initial condition in a two-dimensional long wave propagation model. The cases of Skagway, PNG, and Unimak 1946 will be specifically discussed.

  2. CASE STUDY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    vascular disease necessitating bilateral amputations at the knee. The patient had no ... patients on long-term treatment and those on protease inhibitor (PI) regimens.1,2 We present a rare case of atypical lipodystrophy, presenting as multiple subcutaneous lipomas, in a patient who had been on a non-PI. ARV regimen for 6 ...

  3. Case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Point mutations in the human fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) gene are well documented in inherited skeletal anomalies, such as achondroplasia and thanatophoric dysplasia, that are associated in most cases of dwarfism.10 In addition, an oncogenic role has been proposed for mutant FGFR.11 Recently,.

  4. On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

  5. MEASURING SERVICE QUALITY USING SERVQUAL MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF BROKERAGE OFFICES IN IRAN

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rajabipoor Meybodi

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Many organizations especially service organizations to suit their ideals and mission specific approach to the topic that have quality and management. This paper is intended to subject the importance of quality serve the brokerage offices, the gap analysis using the model and analysis techniques to Servqual quality service brokerage offices presented a case study (Stock Brokerage office's regional provinces Yazd) pay. Design/methodology/approach: Application of statistical non-paramet...

  6. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  7. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pdengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  8. Stochastic and deterministic multiscale models for systems biology: an auxin-transport case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    King John R

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic and asymptotic methods are powerful tools in developing multiscale systems biology models; however, little has been done in this context to compare the efficacy of these methods. The majority of current systems biology modelling research, including that of auxin transport, uses numerical simulations to study the behaviour of large systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations, with little consideration of alternative modelling frameworks. Results In this case study, we solve an auxin-transport model using analytical methods, deterministic numerical simulations and stochastic numerical simulations. Although the three approaches in general predict the same behaviour, the approaches provide different information that we use to gain distinct insights into the modelled biological system. We show in particular that the analytical approach readily provides straightforward mathematical expressions for the concentrations and transport speeds, while the stochastic simulations naturally provide information on the variability of the system. Conclusions Our study provides a constructive comparison which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the considered modelling approaches. This will prove helpful to researchers when weighing up which modelling approach to select. In addition, the paper goes some way to bridging the gap between these approaches, which in the future we hope will lead to integrative hybrid models.

  9. JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, Arturo

    2011-01-01

    The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

  10. Introducing the bio-psycho-social-physical model of dementia through a collective case study design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keady, John; Jones, Lesley; Ward, Richard; Koch, Susan; Swarbrick, Caroline; Hellström, Ingrid; Davies-Quarrell, Vivienne; Williams, Sion

    2013-10-01

    To provide evidence for the development of a physical domain attached to the well-known bio-psycho-social model of dementia. The objectives were to develop a set of international case studies that followed a trajectory approach, from prevention to end-of-life care. In the UK the bio-psycho-social model has informed the shape of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and the Social Care Institute for Excellence 'dementia' guideline. However, limited attention has been paid to outlining and describing a physical domain of dementia, a discrepancy that informed the rationale for this study. A collective case study design was used to address the research aim and objectives. Case studies from along the trajectory of dementia were provided by an international team of contributors from an inter-disciplinary background comprising nursing (general and mental health), social work and social science. The team's synthesis and analysis of the six case studies generated five repeating themes with each theme becoming components of a 'physical' domain of dementia. The five identified physical components were: (1) physical well-being, (2) physical health and examination, (3) physical care, (4) physical treatment and (5) physical environment. The development of a bio-psycho-social-physical model of dementia presents a holistic and culturally sensitive approach to understanding the experience of living with dementia, and to providing care and support in a variety of situations and contexts. The physical domain of dementia has particular relevance to nursing and nursing practice, such as providing physical care at the end-of-life. The interplay between the biological-psychological-social-physical domains of dementia and the trajectory of dementia could form the basis of clinical decision-making and practice. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. The Role of Decision Models in Health Care Policy: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Baptiste, Ava; Schapira, Marilyn M; Cravens, Catherine; Chambers, James D; Neumann, Peter J; Siegel, Joanna; Lawrence, William

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) underwent a National Coverage Determination on computed tomography colonography (CTC) to screen for colorectal cancer. The Cancer Intervention & Surveillance Network developed decision models to inform this decision. The purpose of our study was to investigate the role of models in this decision. We performed a descriptive case study. We conducted semistructured telephone interviews with members of the CMS coverage and analysis group (CAG) and Medicare Coverage and Analysis Advisory Committee (MEDCAC) panelists. Informed by previously published literature, we developed a coding scheme to analyze interview transcripts, MEDCAC meeting transcripts, and the final CMS decision memo. Four members of the CAG and 8 MEDCAC panelists were interviewed. The total number of codes across all study documents was 772. We found evidence that decision makers believed in the adequacy of models to inform decision making. In interview transcripts, the code Models Are Adequate to Inform was more frequent than the code Models Are Inadequate to Inform (47 times v. 5). Discussion of model conceptualization dominated the MEDCAC meeting (Model Conceptualization assigned 113 times) and was frequently discussed during interviews (Model Conceptualization assigned 84 times). We also found evidence that the models helped to focus the policy discussion. Across study documents, the codes Focus on Cost, Focus on Clinical-Health Impact, and Focus on Inadequacy of Evidence Base were assigned 99, 98, and 97 times, respectively. Decision makers involved in the CTC decision believed in the adequacy of models to inform coverage decisions. The model played a role in focusing the CTC coverage policy discussion. © The Authors 2016.

  12. Numerical modelling comparison of slow landslides: the Portalet case study (Central Pyrenees-Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Merodo, Jose Antonio; Garcia-Davalillo, Juan Carlos; Herrera, Gerardo

    2013-04-01

    Slow-moving landslides are a wide-spread type of active mass movement that cause severe damages to infrastructures and may be a precursor of sudden catastrophic slope failures. In this context, modelling slow-moving landslide behaviour is an important task in order to quantify and reduce the risk associated to this geological process. In practice, landslide occurrence and stability conditions are evaluated for a given scenario through a stability factor based on limit equilibrium analysis. This "static" approximation is hardly applied when boundary conditions are time dependent. Apart from earthquake studies, time dependent analysis is required when: (i) hydrological conditions change as in the case of rainfall; (ii) resistant parameters are reduced as in the case of strain softening or weathering processes and (iii) creep behaviour is taken into account. Different numerical models can be applied to reproduce the kinematic behaviour of large slow landslides. This paper compares four different models: i) a direct correlation with measured rainfall, ii) a simple 1D infinite slope viscoplastic model [1], iii) a 2D elasto-plastic finite element model [2] and iv) a 2D visco-plastic finite element model [3]. These models, ordered by increasing level of complexity, are compared by applying them to the Portalet case study. The Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees) is an active paleo-landslide that has been "reactivated" by the construction of a parking area at the toe of the slope in 2004. This landslide is still active despite the corrective measures carried out to stabilize it. The measurements obtained with different monitoring techniques (ground based SAR, advanced DInSAR processing of satellite SAR images, DGPS and inclinometers) indicate that the hillside is still moving today following two patterns. The first one corresponds to a slow continuous motion of constant speed of about 100 mm/year, the second one corresponds to accelerations of the moving mass when

  13. Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

    2015-11-01

    Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

  14. Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmoos, Michael; Henle, Klaus

    2010-11-01

    Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale. First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales. Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog ( Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required. The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.

  15. Case Study: Testing with Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2015-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses using case studies to test for knowledge or lessons learned.

  16. A Water Treatment Case Study for Quantifying Model Performance with Multilevel Flow Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Emil Krabbe; Bram, Mads Valentin; Frutiger, Jerome

    2018-01-01

    Decision support systems are a key focus of research on developing control rooms to aid operators in making reliable decisions, and reducing incidents caused by human errors. For this purpose, models of complex systems can be developed to diagnose causes or consequences for specific alarms. Model...... plant experiments are used for validation of simple Multilevel Flow Modelling models of a hydrocyclone unit for oil removal from produced water....

  17. Challenges encountered when expanding activated sludge models: a case study based on N2O production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snip, L J P; Boiocchi, R; Flores-Alsina, X; Jeppsson, U; Gernaey, K V

    2014-01-01

    It is common practice in wastewater engineering to extend standard activated sludge models (ASMs) with extra process equations derived from batch experiments. However, such experiments have often been performed under conditions different from the ones normally found in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). As a consequence, these experiments might not be representative for full-scale performance, and unexpected behaviour may be observed when simulating WWTP models using the derived process equations. In this paper we want to highlight problems encountered using a simplified case study: a modified version of the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) is upgraded with nitrous oxide (N2O) formation by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. Four different model structures have been implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1). The results of the investigations revealed two typical difficulties: problems related to the overall mathematical model structure and problems related to the published set of parameter values. The paper describes the model implementation incompatibilities, the variability in parameter values and the difficulties of reaching similar conditions when simulating a full-scale activated sludge plant. Finally, the simulation results show large differences in oxygen uptake rates, nitritation rates and consequently the quantity of N2O emission (GN2O) using the different models.

  18. Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Baysal, Gülendam

    2013-01-01

    Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...

  19. Customer Ranking Model for Project Businesses: A Case Study from the Automotive Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Markus Zunk

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available For technology-orientated enterprises that operate project-based businesses, the goal-oriented allocation of scarce marketing resources has great potential to help consolidate their competitive position. An important precondition for goal-oriented management is the identification of the most valuable customers. This enables technology-orientated enterprises to segment markets in order to make tactical marketing decisions. This theorybased paper aims to develop and test a holistic customer ranking model. By deploying the five steps presented in this paper, customer relationship managers are better able to identify and to rank their customers in project-based businesses. A case study provides an example of the application of the method from the automotive industry in Austria. The experiences derived from this case study show that using a customer ranking framework is a crucial factor for enterprises in narrow technology markets to be successful and to achieve their corporate goals.

  20. Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: A case study on Protein Kinase A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia P Hirakis

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained from various scales and analysis approaches, such as atomistic molecular models, Markov state models (MSM, subcellular network models, and whole cell models. In this paper, we use protein kinase A (PKA activation as a case study to explore how computational methods that model different physical scales can complement each other and integrate into an improved multiscale representation of the biological mechanisms. Using measured crystal structures, we show how molecular dynamics (MD simulations coupled with atomic-scale MSMs can provide conformations for Brownian dynamics (BD simulations to feed transitional states and kinetic parameters into protein-scale MSMs. We discuss how milestoning can give reaction probabilities and forward-rate constants of cAMP association events by seamlessly integrating MD and BD simulation scales. These rate constants coupled with MSMs provide a robust representation of the free energy landscape, enabling access to kinetic and thermodynamic parameters unavailable from current experimental data. These approaches have helped to illuminate the cooperative nature of PKA activation in response to distinct cAMP binding events. Collectively, this approach exemplifies a general strategy for multiscale model development that is applicable to a wide range of biological problems.

  1. Modeling of IP scanning activities with Hidden Markov Models: Darknet case study

    OpenAIRE

    De Santis, Giulia; Lahmadi, Abdelkader; Francois, Jerome; Festor, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    International audience; We propose a methodology based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model scanning activities monitored by a darknet. The HMMs of scanning activities are built on the basis of the number of scanned IP addresses within a time window and fitted using mixtures of Poisson distributions. Our methodology is applied on real data traces collected from a darknet and generated by two large scale scanners, ZMap and Shodan. We demonstrated that the built models are able to characteri...

  2. Method for mapping population-based case-control studies: an application using generalized additive models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aschengrau Ann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence and risk can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Disease registry data are often mapped by town or county of diagnosis and contain limited data on covariates. These maps often possess poor spatial resolution, the potential for spatial confounding, and the inability to consider latency. Population-based case-control studies can provide detailed information on residential history and covariates. Results Generalized additive models (GAMs provide a useful framework for mapping point-based epidemiologic data. Smoothing on location while controlling for covariates produces adjusted maps. We generate maps of odds ratios using the entire study area as a reference. We smooth using a locally weighted regression smoother (loess, a method that combines the advantages of nearest neighbor and kernel methods. We choose an optimal degree of smoothing by minimizing Akaike's Information Criterion. We use a deviance-based test to assess the overall importance of location in the model and pointwise permutation tests to locate regions of significantly increased or decreased risk. The method is illustrated with synthetic data and data from a population-based case-control study, using S-Plus and ArcView software. Conclusion Our goal is to develop practical methods for mapping population-based case-control and cohort studies. The method described here performs well for our synthetic data, reproducing important features of the data and adequately controlling the covariate. When applied to the population-based case-control data set, the method suggests spatial confounding and identifies statistically significant areas of increased and decreased odds ratios.

  3. A game theory model for stabilizing price of chili: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardayanti, Ari; Aviv, Afgan Suffan; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

    2017-11-01

    Chili is one of the important agricultural commodity in Indonesia because of its widely consumption by the Indonesian. Chili becomes one of the commodities that experience price fluctuations and important cause of yearly inflation in Indonesia. The unstable price of chili is affected by the scarcity of the commodity in some months and the difference of the harvest season. This study proposes a model to solve the problem by considering the substitution of fresh chilies with dried chili. We propose the cooperative of chili's farmer as entities that process fresh chili into dry ones. The existence of substitution products is expected to maintain the price stability chili. This research was conducted by taking a case study on chili commodity markets in Surakarta which consists of 19 traditional markets. This study aims to create a price stabilization scheme with product substitution using a game theory model. There are 4 strategies proposed in game theory model to describe the relationship between producers and consumers. In this case, the producers are the farmers and the consumers are the trade market. A mixed strategy of was chosen to determine the optimal value among 4 strategies. From the calculation results obtained optimal value when doing a mixed strategy of IDR 201,188,829,000.

  4. Studying the Behaviour of Model of Mirror Neuron System in Case of Autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Anirban

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Several experiment done by the researchers conducted that autism is caused by the dysfunctional mirror neuron system and the dysfunctions of mirror neuron system is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. In the present work those experiments were studied as well as studying a model of mirror neuron system called MNS2 developed by a research group. This research examined the behavior of the model in case of autism and compared the result with those studies conducting dysfunctions of mirror neuron system in autism. To perform this, a neural network employing the model was developed which recognized the three types of grasping (faster, normal and slower. The network was implemented with back propagation through time learning algorithm. The whole grasping process was divided into 30 time steps and different hand and object states at each time step was used as the input of the network. Normally the network successfully recognized all of the three types of grasps. The network required more times as the number of inactive neurons increased. And in case of maximum inactive neurons of the mirror neuron system the network became unable to recognize the types of grasp. As the time to recognize the types of grasp is proportional to the number of inactive neurons, the experiment result supports the hypothesis that dysfunctions of MNS is proportional to the symptom severity of autism. Keywords— Autism, MNS, mirror neuron, neural network, BPTT

  5. A case study of an enhanced eutrophication model with stoichiometric zooplankton growth sub-model calibrated by Bayesian method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Likun; Peng, Sen; Sun, Jingmei; Zhao, Xinhua; Li, Xia

    2016-05-01

    Urban lakes in China have suffered from severe eutrophication over the past several years, particularly those with relatively small areas and closed watersheds. Many efforts have been made to improve the understanding of eutrophication physiology with advanced mathematical models. However, several eutrophication models ignore zooplankton behavior and treat zooplankton as particles, which lead to the systematic errors. In this study, an eutrophication model was enhanced with a stoichiometric zooplankton growth sub-model that simulated the zooplankton predation process and the interplay among nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen cycles. A case study in which the Bayesian method was used to calibrate the enhanced eutrophication model parameters and to calculate the model simulation results was carried out in an urban lake in Tianjin, China. Finally, a water quality assessment was also conducted for eutrophication management. Our result suggests that (1) integration of the Bayesian method and the enhanced eutrophication model with a zooplankton feeding behavior sub-model can effectively depict the change in water quality and (2) the nutrients resulting from rainwater runoff laid the foundation for phytoplankton bloom.

  6. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  7. Business models in urban farming: A comparative analysis of case studies from Spain, Italy and Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pölling Bernd

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The “Urban Agriculture Europe” EU COST-Action (2012–2016 has shown that the complexity of urban agriculture (UA is hardly compressible into classic business management models and has proposed new management models, such as the Business Model Canvas (BMC. Business models of UA have to be different from rural ones. In particular, factors such as differentiation and diversification, but also low cost-oriented specialisation, are characteristic and necessary business models for UA to stay profitable in the long term under challenging city conditions. This paper aims to highlight how farm enterprises have to adjust to urban conditions by stepping into appropriate business models aiming to stay competitive and profitable, and how the BMC is useful to analyse their organisation and performance, both economically and socially. The paper offers an inter-regional analysis of UA enterprises located in Spain, Italy, and Germany, which are further subdivided into: local food, leisure, educational, social, therapeutic, agri-environmental, cultural heritage and experimental farms. The analysis demonstrates that UA is differentially adjusted to specific urban conditions and that the BMC is useful for analysing urban farming. Heterogeneous local food farms and the integration of local and organic food production in social farming business models are most frequent in our case studies.

  8. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  9. Applying the model of science knowledge for teaching about cell: an instrumental case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Susana Santos

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This research results from an Instrumental Case Study, based on the Professional Knowledge (PK Model, defined by Ball et al. (2008, 2009 for the area of Math. The Ball Modelserved as the basis for building the Model of Content Knowledge for ScienceTeaching, which was used to evaluate the teaching practice of two teachers of Natural Sciences and Mathematics. The study seeks to understand, analyze and discuss the knowledge shown by teachers when dealing with the teaching unit “Cell: unity in the constitution of Living Beings”. Thus, we intend to identify the knowledge enabled teachers when teaching contentsassociated with cells in the classroom and understand how and why such knowledge is present or absent. To analyze the information emerging in the classroom, we use the Modeling Instrument of Monteiro et al. (2008, 2009, which allows the transcriptionof classes, line by line, splitting it into episodes and subepisodes. This division facilitates the identification of the dimensions of teacher's knowledge, according to the Model Knowledge for Science Teaching. As a result, it is clear that the most active knowledge is the Common Content Knowledge (CCK. Finally, the implication of the study for teachers is the awareness about professional knowledge (PK, and pedagogical content knowledge (PCK, the relationships between them, the Model Knowledge for Teaching Science and reflection in the process of teaching.

  10. Modeling Soil Sodicity Problems under Dryland and Irrigated Conditions: Case Studies in Argentina and Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso

    2014-05-01

    Salt-affected soils, both saline and sodic, my develop both under dryland and irrigated conditions, affecting negatively the physical and chemical soil properties, the crop production and the animal and human health.Among the development processes of salt-affected soils, the processes of sodification have been generally received less attention and is less understood than the development of saline soils. Although in both of them, hydrological processes are involved in their development, in the case of sodic soils we have to consider some additional chemical and physicochemical reactions, making more difficult their modeling and prediction. In this contribution we present two case studies: one related to the development of sodic soils in the lowlands of the Argentina Pampas, under dryland conditions and sub-humid temperate climate, with pastures for cattle production; the other deals with the development of sodic soils in the Colombia Cauca Valley, under irrigated conditions and tropical sub-humid climate, in lands used for sugarcane cropping dedicated to sugar and ethanol production. In both cases the development of sodicity in the surface soil is mainly related to the effects of the composition and level of groundwater, affected in the case of Argentina Pampas by the off-site changes in dryland use and management in the upper zones and by the drainage conditions in the lowlands, and in the case of the Cauca Valley, by the on-site irrigation and drainage management in lands with sugarcane. There is shown how the model SALSODIMAR, developed by the main author, based on the balance of water and soluble componentes of both the irrigation water and groundwater under different water and land management conditions, may be adapted for the diagnosis and prediction of both problems, and for the selection of alternatives for their management and amelioration.

  11. Business model in marketplace industry using business model canvas approach: An e-commerce case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlyana, Yana; Hartono, Henny

    2017-12-01

    The advancement of technology has huge impact on commerce world, especially in the marketplace that has shifted from brick-and-mortar to digital/online marketplace. Grasping the opportunity, ABC joined venture with DEF to create a new online venture namely XYZ Online Shop - an e-commerce website that has large segmentations. The objective of this research is to analyze the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop by utilizing Business Model Canvas Framework and SWOT analysis. The results obtained from the research are that the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop excels in customer relationship block and still needs to improve key partner and key activities blocks. Business Model Canvas along with SWOT analysis describes how XYZ Online Shop creates, delivers, and captures value based on its internal and external environments.

  12. Evaluation of recently-proposed secondary organic aerosol models for a case study in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Dzepina

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent field studies have found large discrepancies in the measured vs. modeled SOA mass loadings in both urban and regional polluted atmospheres. The reasons for these large differences are unclear. Here we revisit a case study of SOA formation in Mexico City described by Volkamer et al. (2006, during a photochemically active period when the impact of regional biomass burning is minor or negligible, and show that the observed increase in OA/ΔCO is consistent with results from several groups during MILAGRO 2006. Then we use the case study to evaluate three new SOA models: 1 the update of aromatic SOA yields from recent chamber experiments (Ng et al., 2007; 2 the formation of SOA from glyoxal (Volkamer et al., 2007a; and 3 the formation of SOA from primary semivolatile and intermediate volatility species (P-S/IVOC (Robinson et al., 2007. We also evaluate the effect of reduced partitioning of SOA into POA (Song et al., 2007. Traditional SOA precursors (mainly aromatics by themselves still fail to produce enough SOA to match the observations by a factor of ~7. The new low-NOx aromatic pathways with very high SOA yields make a very small contribution in this high-NOx urban environment as the RO2·+NO reaction dominates the fate of the RO2· radicals. Glyoxal contributes several μg m−3 to SOA formation, with similar timing as the measurements. P-S/IVOC are estimated from equilibrium with emitted POA, and introduce a large amount of gas-phase oxidizable carbon that was not in models before. With the formulation in Robinson et al. (2007 these species have a high SOA yield, and this mechanism can close the gap in SOA mass between measurements and models in our case study. However the volatility of SOA produced in the model is too high and the O/C ratio is somewhat lower than observations. Glyoxal SOA helps to bring the O/C ratio of predicted and observed SOA into better

  13. Modeling and processing for next-generation big-data technologies with applications and case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Barolli, Leonard; Barolli, Admir; Papajorgji, Petraq

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest advances in Big Data technologies and provides the readers with a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in Big Data processing, analysis, analytics, and other related topics. It presents new models, algorithms, software solutions and methodologies, covering the full data cycle, from data gathering to their visualization and interaction, and includes a set of case studies and best practices. New research issues, challenges and opportunities shaping the future agenda in the field of Big Data are also identified and presented throughout the book, which is intended for researchers, scholars, advanced students, software developers and practitioners working at the forefront in their field.

  14. Location-Allocation model for food industrial using fuzzy criteria: A case study of dairy industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Esfandiyari

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available A good facility layout plays an important role on increasing the profitability of a production unit. A good location needs to meet different criteria such as the distance between the plants and the places to reach raw materials, customers, etc. In this paper, we proposed a multi criteria decision making problem to locate a suitable dairy plant. We assume that all factors influencing the plant involves uncertainty and proposed fuzzy numbers to handle the uncertainty associated with all input parameters. We apply the method for a real-world case study of dairy production unit and analyze the results of our proposed model.

  15. PARALLEL MODELS OF ASSESSMENT: INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THERAPEUTIC ASSESSMENT MODELS INTERSECT THROUGH EARLY CHILDHOOD CASE STUDIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gart, Natalie; Zamora, Irina; Williams, Marian E

    2016-07-01

    Therapeutic Assessment (TA; S.E. Finn & M.E. Tonsager, 1997; J.D. Smith, 2010) is a collaborative, semistructured model that encourages self-discovery and meaning-making through the use of assessment as an intervention approach. This model shares core strategies with infant mental health assessment, including close collaboration with parents and caregivers, active participation of the family, a focus on developing new family stories and increasing parents' understanding of their child, and reducing isolation and increasing hope through the assessment process. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches is explored, using case studies of three infants/young children and their families to illustrate the application of TA to infant mental health. The case of an 18-month-old girl whose parents fear that she has bipolar disorder illustrates the core principles of the TA model, highlighting the use of assessment intervention sessions and the clinical approach to preparing assessment feedback. The second case follows an infant with a rare genetic syndrome from ages 2 to 24 months, focusing on the assessor-parent relationship and the importance of a developmental perspective. Finally, assessment of a 3-year-old boy illustrates the development and use of a fable as a tool to provide feedback to a young child about assessment findings and recommendations. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  16. Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardin, Jaline; Bever, Caitlin A; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Miller, John M; Eisele, Thomas P; Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A

    2017-06-12

    Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive case detection is best poised to push a region to elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling to assess how baseline transmission intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of reactive activities in the context of other possible intervention packages. Communities in Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination operations are currently underway, were used as representatives of three archetypes of malaria transmission: low-transmission, high household density; high-transmission, low household density; and high-transmission, high household density. Transmission at the spatially-connected household level was simulated with a dynamical model of malaria transmission, and local variation in vectorial capacity and intervention coverage were parameterized according to data collected from the area. Various potential intervention packages were imposed on each of the archetypical settings and the resulting likelihoods of elimination by the end of 2020 were compared. Simulations predict that success of elimination campaigns in both low- and high-transmission areas is strongly dependent on stemming the flow of imported infections, underscoring the need for regional-scale strategies capable of reducing transmission concurrently across many connected areas. In historically low-transmission areas, treatment of clinical malaria should form the cornerstone of elimination operations, as most malaria infections in these areas are symptomatic and onward transmission would be mitigated through health system strengthening; reactive case detection has minimal impact in these settings. In historically high-transmission areas, vector control and case management are crucial for limiting outbreak size, and the asymptomatic reservoir must be addressed through

  17. Developing and Testing a 3d Cadastral Data Model a Case Study in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aien, A.; Kalantari, M.; Rajabifard, A.; Williamson, I. P.; Shojaei, D.

    2012-07-01

    and physical extent of 3D properties and associated interests. The data model extends the traditional cadastral requirements to cover other applications such as urban planning and land valuation and taxation. A demonstration of a test system on the proposed data model is also presented. The test is based on a case study in Victoria, Australia to evaluate the effectiveness of the data model.

  18. Finding the effective parameter perturbations in atmospheric models: the LORENZ63 model as case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate

  19. Developing a quality by design approach to model tablet dissolution testing: an industrial case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yekpe, Ketsia; Abatzoglou, Nicolas; Bataille, Bernard; Gosselin, Ryan; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Simard, Jean-Sébastien; Cournoyer, Antoine

    2017-11-02

    This study applied the concept of Quality by Design (QbD) to tablet dissolution. Its goal was to propose a quality control strategy to model dissolution testing of solid oral dose products according to International Conference on Harmonization guidelines. The methodology involved the following three steps: (1) a risk analysis to identify the material- and process-related parameters impacting the critical quality attributes of dissolution testing, (2) an experimental design to evaluate the influence of design factors (attributes and parameters selected by risk analysis) on dissolution testing, and (3) an investigation of the relationship between design factors and dissolution profiles. Results show that (a) in the case studied, the two parameters impacting dissolution kinetics are active pharmaceutical ingredient particle size distributions and tablet hardness and (b) these two parameters could be monitored with PAT tools to predict dissolution profiles. Moreover, based on the results obtained, modeling dissolution is possible. The practicality and effectiveness of the QbD approach were demonstrated through this industrial case study. Implementing such an approach systematically in industrial pharmaceutical production would reduce the need for tablet dissolution testing.

  20. Comparative Study of Elastic Network Model and Protein Contact Network for Protein Complexes: The Hemoglobin Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall topology and interfacial interactions play key roles in understanding structural and functional principles of protein complexes. Elastic Network Model (ENM and Protein Contact Network (PCN are two widely used methods for high throughput investigation of structures and interactions within protein complexes. In this work, the comparative analysis of ENM and PCN relative to hemoglobin (Hb was taken as case study. We examine four types of structural and dynamical paradigms, namely, conformational change between different states of Hbs, modular analysis, allosteric mechanisms studies, and interface characterization of an Hb. The comparative study shows that ENM has an advantage in studying dynamical properties and protein-protein interfaces, while PCN is better for describing protein structures quantitatively both from local and from global levels. We suggest that the integration of ENM and PCN would give a potential but powerful tool in structural systems biology.

  1. Evaluation of New Secondary Organic Aerosol Models for a Case Study in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzepina, K.; Volkamer, R.; Madronich, S.; Tulet, P.; Ulbrich, I.; Zhang, Q.; Cappa, C. D.; Ziemann, P. J.; Jimenez, J. L.

    2008-12-01

    Recent field studies have found large discrepancies in the measured vs. modeled SOA mass loadings in both urban and regional polluted atmospheres. The reasons for these large differences are unclear. Here we revisit a case study of SOA formation in Mexico City described by Volkamer et al. (2006) and show that the increase in OA/CO during photochemistry is consistent with results from several groups during MILAGRO, during a period when the impact of regional biomass burning is minor or negligible. Then we use the case study to evaluate three new SOA models: 1) the update of aromatic SOA yields from recent chamber experiments (Ng et al., 2007); 2) the formation of SOA from glyoxal (Volkamer et al., 2007); 3) and the formation of SOA from primary semivolatile and intermediate volatility species (P-S/IVOC) (Robinson et al., 2007). We also evaluate the effect of reduced partitioning of SOA into POA (Song et al., 2007). Traditional SOA precursors (mainly aromatics) by themselves still fail to produce enough SOA to match the observations by a factor of ~7. The new low-NOx aromatic pathways with very high SOA yields make a negligible contribution in this urban environment as the RO2 + NO reaction dominates the fate of the RO2 radicals. Glyoxal contributes several μg m-3 to SOA formation, with similar timing as the measurements. P-S/IVOC concentrations are estimated as in equilibrium with measured POA, and these species introduce a large amount of carbon that was not in models before. With the formulation in Robinson et al. (2007) these species have a high SOA yield, and this mechanism can close the gap in SOA mass between measurements and models in our case study. However, this model has many parameters that are not well constrained and much experimental work is needed for its realistic assessment. The volatility of model SOA is too high when compared to the measurements, while the O/C of all model SOA is somewhat lower than the observations. The effects of dilution and

  2. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  3. Bayesian Modeling for Genetic Anticipation in Presence of Mutational Heterogeneity: A Case Study in Lynch Syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boonstra, Philip S; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Taylor, Jeremy M G

    2011-01-01

    birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known....... In this article, we posit a Bayesian approach to infer genetic anticipation under flexible random effects models for censored data that capture the effect of successive generations on AOO. Primary interest lies in the random effects. Misspecifying the distribution of random effects may result in incorrect...... to cause hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, also called Lynch syndrome (LS). We find evidence for a decrease in AOO between generations in this article. Our model predicts family-level anticipation effects that are potentially useful in genetic counseling clinics for high-risk families....

  4. Business performance assessment and the EFQM Excellence Model 2010 (case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Antošová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of the latest management methods becomes today, during the ongoing European integration processes, a requisite for the success of the business within the environment of international markets. In this paper, the authors pay attention to the expansion of the organizational knowledge base with an application of a new management method. They are dealing with assessment of the organization performance, the issue of its effectiveness and the increasing economic efficiency, on an example of a selected mining company as a case study. In order to detect weaknesses in the company reviewed and to offer suggestions for improvement, which may move the company towards prosperity, the authors carried out the performance assessment by using the EFQM Excellence Model 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the business performance assessment model in terms of the European standards that will allow the use of latest management methods in the environment of both the Slovak and European companies.

  5. Identifying 'unhealthy' food advertising on television: a case study applying the UK Nutrient Profile model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkin, Gabrielle; Wilson, Nick; Hermanson, Nicole

    2009-05-01

    To evaluate the feasibility of the UK Nutrient Profile (NP) model for identifying 'unhealthy' food advertisements using a case study of New Zealand television advertisements. Four weeks of weekday television from 15.30 hours to 18.30 hours was videotaped from a state-owned (free-to-air) television channel popular with children. Food advertisements were identified and their nutritional information collected in accordance with the requirements of the NP model. Nutrient information was obtained from a variety of sources including food labels, company websites and a national nutritional database. From the 60 h sample of weekday afternoon television, there were 1893 advertisements, of which 483 were for food products or retailers. After applying the NP model, 66 % of these were classified as advertising high-fat, high-salt and high-sugar (HFSS) foods; 28 % were classified as advertising non-HFSS foods; and the remaining 2 % were unclassifiable. More than half (53 %) of the HFSS food advertisements were for 'mixed meal' items promoted by major fast-food franchises. The advertising of non-HFSS food was sparse, covering a narrow range of food groups, with no advertisements for fresh fruit or vegetables. Despite the NP model having some design limitations in classifying real-world televised food advertisements, it was easily applied to this sample and could clearly identify HFSS products. Policy makers who do not wish to completely restrict food advertising to children outright should consider using this NP model for regulating food advertising.

  6. MEASURING SERVICE QUALITY USING SERVQUAL MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF BROKERAGE OFFICES IN IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rajabipoor Meybodi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Many organizations especially service organizations to suit their ideals and mission specific approach to the topic that have quality and management. This paper is intended to subject the importance of quality serve the brokerage offices, the gap analysis using the model and analysis techniques to Servqual quality service brokerage offices presented a case study (Stock Brokerage office's regional provinces Yazd pay. Design/methodology/approach: Application of statistical non-parametric test for the qualitative analysis of significant gaps in services, suggestions for improving the quality of brokerage services at a low-level case study is presented. Statistic's tests in five areas, including service quality conceptual donor tangible form, reply to, guarantee, credit, and charity have been. For this purpose, based on service quality gaps five branches, a questionnaire measure designed level perception and expectations of investors and broker's service brokerage offices, and the navigation. Findings: Results show that donor expectations and perceptions between investor's quality service brokerage offices in all areas, there are significant differences. Brokerage Managers, the models analyze d using the service quality, will be able to create gaps between the way the service provided, i.e., investors and agents known to the agency planned to strengthen and reform pay problems. Originality/value: Servqual technique used for the first time in Iran and in particular, in Yazd province, for the assessment the service quality of brokerage offices. It certainly results in improving the quality of services these offices will be effective.

  7. Modeling of a Parabolic Trough Solar Field for Acceptance Testing: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, M. J.; Mehos, M. S.; Kearney, D. W.; McMahan, A. C.

    2011-01-01

    As deployment of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) systems ramps up, the need for reliable and robust performance acceptance test guidelines for the solar field is also amplified. Project owners and/or EPC contractors often require extensive solar field performance testing as part of the plant commissioning process in order to ensure that actual solar field performance satisfies both technical specifications and performance guaranties between the involved parties. Performance test code work is currently underway at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with the SolarPACES Task-I activity, and within the ASME PTC-52 committee. One important aspect of acceptance testing is the selection of a robust technology performance model. NREL1 has developed a detailed parabolic trough performance model within the SAM software tool. This model is capable of predicting solar field, sub-system, and component performance. It has further been modified for this work to support calculation at subhourly time steps. This paper presents the methodology and results of a case study comparing actual performance data for a parabolic trough solar field to the predicted results using the modified SAM trough model. Due to data limitations, the methodology is applied to a single collector loop, though it applies to larger subfields and entire solar fields. Special consideration is provided for the model formulation, improvements to the model formulation based on comparison with the collected data, and uncertainty associated with the measured data. Additionally, this paper identifies modeling considerations that are of particular importance in the solar field acceptance testing process and uses the model to provide preliminary recommendations regarding acceptable steady-state testing conditions at the single-loop level.

  8. Numerical modeling for longwall pillar design: a case study from a typical longwall panel in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangchao; Liang, Saijiang; Tan, Yunliang; Xie, Fuxing; Chen, Shaojie; Jia, Hongguo

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a new numerical modeling procedure and design principle for longwall pillar design with the assistance of numerical simulation of FLAC3D. A coal mine located in Yanzhou city, Shandong Province, China, was selected for this case study. A meticulously validated numerical model was developed to investigate the stress changes across the longwall pillar with various sizes. In order to improve the reliability of the numerical modeling, a calibration procedure is undertaken to match the Salamon and Munro pillar strength formula for the coal pillar, while a similar calibration procedure is used to estimate the stress-strain response of a gob. The model results demonstrated that when the coal pillar width was 7-8 m, most of the vertical load was carried by the panel rib, whilst the gateroad was overall in a relatively low stress environment and could keep its stability with proper supports. Thus, the rational longwall pillar width was set as 8 m and the field monitoring results confirmed the feasibility of this pillar size. The proposed numerical simulation procedure and design principle presented in this study could be a viable alternative approach for longwall pillar design for other similar projects.

  9. Modelling and Control of HIV/AIDS Propagation - A Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A statistical method of system identification based on vector autoregressive time series analysis was used. This led in most cases to deterministic discrete – time linear autonomous models. The population dynamics of reported HIV/AIDS cases for females and males were found to be of second order, unstable, growing ...

  10. Air Pollution Modeling at Road Sides Using the Operational Street Pollution Model-A Case Study in Hanoi, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hung, Ngo Tho; Ketzel, Matthias; Jensen, Steen Solvang

    2010-01-01

    In many metropolitan areas, traffic is the main source of air pollution. The high concentrations of pollutants in streets have the potential to affect human health. Therefore, estimation of air pollution at the street level is required for health impact assessment. This task has been carried out...... the operational street pollution model (OSPM) developed by the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark for a case study in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. OSPM predictions from five streets were evaluated against air pollution measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide...

  11. Effects of Aftershock Declustering in Risk Modeling: Case Study of a Subduction Sequence in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, D. L.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake hazard and risk models often assume that earthquake rates can be represented by a stationary Poisson process, and that aftershocks observed in historical seismicity catalogs represent a deviation from stationarity that must be corrected before earthquake rates are estimated. Algorithms for classifying individual earthquakes as independent mainshocks or as aftershocks vary widely, and analysis of a single catalog can produce considerably different earthquake rates depending on the declustering method implemented. As these rates are propagated through hazard and risk models, the modeled results will vary due to the assumptions implied by these choices. In particular, the removal of large aftershocks following a mainshock may lead to an underestimation of the rate of damaging earthquakes and potential damage due to a large aftershock may be excluded from the model. We present a case study based on the 1907 - 1911 sequence of nine 6.9 Mexico in order to illustrate the variability in risk under various declustering approaches. Previous studies have suggested that subduction zone earthquakes in Mexico tend to occur in clusters, and this particular sequence includes events that would be labeled as aftershocks in some declustering approaches yet are large enough to produce significant damage. We model the ground motion for each event, determine damage ratios using modern exposure data, and then compare the variability in the modeled damage from using the full catalog or one of several declustered catalogs containing only "independent" events. We also consider the effects of progressive damage caused by each subsequent event and how this might increase or decrease the total losses expected from this sequence.

  12. Developing Targeted Health Service Interventions Using the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model: Two Australian Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane L. Phillips

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives. This paper provides an overview of the applicability of the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model to the development of targeted nursing led chronic illness interventions. Background. Changing health care practice is a complex and dynamic process that requires consideration of social, political, economic, and organisational factors. An understanding of the characteristics of the target population, health professionals, and organizations plus identification of the determinants for change are also required. Synthesizing this data to guide the development of an effective intervention is a challenging process. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model has been used in global health care settings to guide the identification, planning, implementation, and evaluation of various health improvement initiatives. Design. Using a reflective case study approach, this paper examines the applicability of the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model to the development of targeted chronic care improvement interventions for two distinct Australian populations: a rapidly expanding and aging rural population with unmet palliative care needs and a disadvantaged urban community at higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Results. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model approach demonstrated utility across diverse health settings in a systematic planning process. In environments characterized by increasing health care needs, limited resources, and growing community expectations, adopting planning tools such as PRECEDE-PROCEED Model at a local level can facilitate the development of the most effective interventions. Relevance to Clinical Practice. The PRECEDE-PROCEED Model is a strong theoretical model that guides the development of realistic nursing led interventions with the best chance of being successful in existing health care environments.

  13. Generalized Functional Linear Models for Gene-based Case-Control Association Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, James L.; Carter, Tonia C.; Lobach, Iryna; Wilson, Alexander F.; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E.; Weeks, Daniel E.; Xiong, Momiao

    2014-01-01

    By using functional data analysis techniques, we developed generalized functional linear models for testing association between a dichotomous trait and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region while adjusting for covariates. Both fixed and mixed effect models are developed and compared. Extensive simulations show that Rao's efficient score tests of the fixed effect models are very conservative since they generate lower type I errors than nominal levels, and global tests of the mixed effect models generate accurate type I errors. Furthermore, we found that the Rao's efficient score test statistics of the fixed effect models have higher power than the sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified version (SKAT-O) in most cases when the causal variants are both rare and common. When the causal variants are all rare (i.e., minor allele frequencies less than 0.03), the Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests have similar or slightly lower power than SKAT and SKAT-O. In practice, it is not known whether rare variants or common variants in a gene are disease-related. All we can assume is that a combination of rare and common variants influences disease susceptibility. Thus, the improved performance of our models when the causal variants are both rare and common shows that the proposed models can be very useful in dissecting complex traits. We compare the performance of our methods with SKAT and SKAT-O on real neural tube defects and Hirschsprung's disease data sets. The Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests are more sensitive than SKAT and SKAT-O in the real data analysis. Our methods can be used in either gene-disease genome-wide/exome-wide association studies or candidate gene analyses. PMID:25203683

  14. Random forests as cumulative effects models: A case study of lakes and rivers in Muskoka, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, F Chris; Plewes, Rachel; Murison, Lorna; MacDougall, Mark J; Sinclair, Sarah; Davies, Christie; Bailey, John L; Richardson, Murray; Gunn, John

    2017-10-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) - a type of environmental appraisal - lacks effective methods for modeling cumulative effects, evaluating indicators of ecosystem condition, and exploring the likely outcomes of development scenarios. Random forests are an extension of classification and regression trees, which model response variables by recursive partitioning. Random forests were used to model a series of candidate ecological indicators that described lakes and rivers from a case study watershed (The Muskoka River Watershed, Canada). Suitability of the candidate indicators for use in cumulative effects assessment and watershed monitoring was assessed according to how well they could be predicted from natural habitat features and how sensitive they were to human land-use. The best models explained 75% of the variation in a multivariate descriptor of lake benthic-macroinvertebrate community structure, and 76% of the variation in the conductivity of river water. Similar results were obtained by cross-validation. Several candidate indicators detected a simulated doubling of urban land-use in their catchments, and a few were able to detect a simulated doubling of agricultural land-use. The paper demonstrates that random forests can be used to describe the combined and singular effects of multiple stressors and natural environmental factors, and furthermore, that random forests can be used to evaluate the performance of monitoring indicators. The numerical methods presented are applicable to any ecosystem and indicator type, and therefore represent a step forward for CEA. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Development of electrical analogue model for studying seepage flow under hydraulic structures - case study: Sukkur barrage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, H.F.; Umar, I.A.; Khan, G.D.

    2003-01-01

    For the solution of groundwater problem many types of models are used, but electrical analogue model is preferred due to its close response with its prototype hydrological system. This model is easy to construct and is reusable. In the model voltage is correlated to groundwater head electric current to flow and capacitance to groundwater storage. The analogy of the model is derived based on Kirchhoffs law and Finite difference form of Laplace equation. The network is consisting of square and rectangular meshes. Scaling factor for voltage and resistors are selected. All the equipment needed for assembling the model are prepared. Terminal strips and their connectivity are checked. Calculated resistors with accurate values after cutting and molding are inserted in the terminal strips and desired section is completed. A network of resistors in X and Z direction is used to represent the aquifer. Two stabilized power supply are used to provide the electrical potential. The worst condition is maintained by supplying the maximum head at upstream and dry condition at downstream. After the development of the model conclusion derived shows that the model are in a position to express the groundwater potential for seepage distribution under the floor with high degree of accuracy. Moreover there is a very good proportion between sample and the actual prototype in existence. The actual model when tested by model show very clear results for the sheet pile in relation to floor length to control seepage or uplift pressure caused. The existence design of Sukkur barrage and its overestimation and underestimation with reference to their sheet pile have been specifically determined. (author)

  16. Evolving Curricular Models in Culinary Arts: An Instrumental Case Study of a Technical Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossio, Allison

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research study was to examine how chefs and other individuals in the food industry understood the field of culinary arts. This study used an instrumental case study with purposeful sampling of multiple cases. Through a series of open-ended interviews using snowball-sampling strategy that concluded with 45 participants sharing…

  17. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  18. A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamedi, Maryam; Zanjirani Farahani, Reza; Husseini, Mohammad Moattar; Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a real-world case study of a natural gas supply chain is investigated. By using concepts related to natural gas industry and the relations among the components of transmission and distribution network, a six-level supply chain has been introduced and presented schematically. The defined supply chain is a single-objective, multi-period, and single-product problem that is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming model, which can easily be linearized. The objective of this model is to minimize direct or indirect distribution costs. There are six groups of constraints including capacity, input and output balancing, demand satisfaction, network flow continuity, and relative constraints to the required binary variables. The solution algorithm of the problem is hierarchical; in each step, one section of the problem is solved using an exact method; the outputs of this section are passed to the next relative section as inputs. Finally, it is shown that the problem has been solved in a reasonable time and desirable results are attained. The use of proposed model and its solution approach have been studied in two gas trunk lines, to present the priority of its cost saving

  19. A 0-1 Integer Programming Model for the Course Scheduling Problem and A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan ALTUNAY

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The course scheduling problem is one of the most common timetabling problems which are frequently encountered in all educational institutions, especially universities. This problem which is getting harder to solve day by day, means the assignment of the lessons and lecturers into the most suitable timeslots and classrooms, provided that various constraints are taken into account. These constraints peculiar to the problem are consisted due to various factors such as the characteristics and the rules of the educational institutions, preferences of lecturers, students’ requests and suggestions. In this study, a novel 0-1 integer programming model that considers preferences of lecturers is proposed for the course scheduling problem. The proposed mathematical model is also tested with a case study from Uludag University. Thus, the performance of the mathematical model can be tested and the results can be analyzed. The results of the carried out application show efficient results in preparing a course schedule that meets the preferences of the lecturers and complies with the rules of the institutions.

  20. Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Kang, Junjie; Zhang, Xingping; Hu, Zheng

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government. - Highlights: • Improve IRSP model by adding nonlinear external and popularization cost. • The model is used to conduct China's power sector planning in 2011–2021. • Simulate the impacts of alternative energy policies on planning results. • The model can be used for joint power sector planning and policy design

  1. Analysis of Artificial Neural Network in Erosion Modeling: A Case Study of Serang Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arif, N.; Danoedoro, P.; Hartono

    2017-12-01

    Erosion modeling is an important measuring tool for both land users and decision makers to evaluate land cultivation and thus it is necessary to have a model to represent the actual reality. Erosion models are a complex model because of uncertainty data with different sources and processing procedures. Artificial neural networks can be relied on for complex and non-linear data processing such as erosion data. The main difficulty in artificial neural network training is the determination of the value of each network input parameters, i.e. hidden layer, momentum, learning rate, momentum, and RMS. This study tested the capability of artificial neural network application in the prediction of erosion risk with some input parameters through multiple simulations to get good classification results. The model was implemented in Serang Watershed, Kulonprogo, Yogyakarta which is one of the critical potential watersheds in Indonesia. The simulation results showed the number of iterations that gave a significant effect on the accuracy compared to other parameters. A small number of iterations can produce good accuracy if the combination of other parameters was right. In this case, one hidden layer was sufficient to produce good accuracy. The highest training accuracy achieved in this study was 99.32%, occurred in ANN 14 simulation with combination of network input parameters of 1 HL; LR 0.01; M 0.5; RMS 0.0001, and the number of iterations of 15000. The ANN training accuracy was not influenced by the number of channels, namely input dataset (erosion factors) as well as data dimensions, rather it was determined by changes in network parameters.

  2. Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies. This report summarizes some of the recent progress in characterizing uncertainty and variability in physi...

  3. Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

    2015-05-22

    Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

  4. Case Study: Writing a Journal Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prud'homme-Genereux, Annie

    2016-01-01

    This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue describes incorporating a journal article into the classroom by first converting it into a case study.

  5. Collaborative Model-based Systems Engineering for Cyber-Physical Systems, with a Building Automation Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzgerald, John; Gamble, Carl; Payne, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We describe an approach to the model-based engineering of cyber-physical systems that permits the coupling of diverse discrete-event and continuous-time models and their simulators. A case study in the building automation domain demonstrates how such co-models and co-simulation can promote early...

  6. Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosneron-Dupin, F.; Reer, B.; Heslinga, G.; Straeter, O.; Gerdes, V.; Saliou, G.; Ullwer, W.

    1997-01-01

    As an informal working group of researchers from France, Germany and The Netherlands created in 1993, the EARTH association is investigating significant subjects in the field of human reliability analysis (HRA). Our initial review of cases from nuclear operating experience showed that decision-based unrequired actions (DUA) contribute to risk significantly on the one hand. On the other hand, our evaluation of current HRA methods showed that these methods do not cover such actions adequately. Especially, practice-oriented guidelines for their predictive identification are lacking. We assumed that a basic cause for such difficulties was that these methods actually use a limited representation of the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) paradigm. We proposed a human-centered model, which better highlights the active role of the operators and the importance of their culture, attitudes and goals. This orientation was encouraged by our review of current HRA research activities. We therefore decided to envisage progress by identifying cognitive tendencies in the context of operating and simulator experience. For this purpose, advanced approaches for retrospective event analysis were discussed. Some orientations for improvements were proposed. By analyzing cases, various cognitive tendencies were identified, together with useful information about their context. Some of them match psychological findings already published in the literature, some of them are not covered adequately by the literature that we reviewed. Finally, this exploratory study shows that contextual and case-illustrated findings about cognitive tendencies provide useful help for the predictive identification of DUA in HRA. More research should be carried out to complement our findings and elaborate more detailed and systematic guidelines for using them in HRA studies

  7. A mathematical model using AHP priorities for soccer player selection: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozceylan, Eren

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The process of player selection in multi-player sports like soccer is a complex multi-criteria problem. In this paper, a two-phase approach is proposed for soccer player selection. In the first phase, the attributes of each player – based on their position within a soccer team – is prioritised using the Analytic Hierarchic Process (AHP. In the second phase, a 0-1 integer linear programming model is developed using the weights of player attributes, and the top performers are determined for inclusion in the team. Finally, a case study on the Turkish soccer club called Fenerbahçe is used to illustrate the applicability and performance of the proposed approach.

  8. Toward a model of curriculum analysis and evaluation - Beka: a case study from Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Catherine E A

    2014-03-01

    All curricula vary in the way that it is constructed, implemented and experienced. Regardless of the context, ongoing evaluation of learning objectives, processes and content within curriculum is critical. Based primarily on the work of Glatthorn (1987), Print (1993) and Reid (2005), this paper describes a case study of an undergraduate nursing curriculum. The analysis described in this paper forms the basis of a process incorporating four key steps: benchmarking, evidencing, knowing and applying (BEKA). By critiquing the literature, and explaining the merge of others' processes and models of curriculum analysis, it is argued that the BEKA framework of curriculum analysis forms a useful and powerful tool enabling understanding of the actual process of teaching, coverage of curriculum content and assessment, and demonstrating linkages between theory and practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mobile Elderly Living Community (MELCO: The Development of the Social Community Model: a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiana Kouta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Elderly prefer to be in their own homes rather than being in hospital or residential homes. Communication between elderly and community nurses is essential in caring and mutual interaction andmodern technologies like MELCO provides the elderly the feeling of independence and safety.Aim: The aim of this paper is to describe the development of the social community model within the objectives of the MELCO project and its application within the community.Methodology: Three axes were taken in consideration: a ontology, b ecological theory and c social network and information systems analyses for the development of the social community model. Fourelderly women participated as a case study in piloting the mobile virtual system. The participants also responded to a short closed ended questionnaire.Results: The analysis of the questionnaire and the discussions with the participants showed that elders found the mobile system useful, easy to use and expressed the actual use of this would help them maintain active. Participants concern of social isolation or dependency on others seems to be trounced through the use of the mobile technology.Conclusions: MELCO social community model is a centric network that enables effective management and collaboration of social and health care teams around the elderly in the community. The teams arevirtual, dynamic and collaborative.

  10. Modelling the black death. A historical case study and implications for the epidemiology of bubonic plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monecke, Stefan; Monecke, Hannelore; Monecke, Jochen

    2009-12-01

    We analysed a plague outbreak in the mining town of Freiberg in Saxony which started in May 1613 and ended in February 1614. This epidemic was selected for study because of the high quality of contemporary sources. It was possible to identify 1400 individual victims meaning that more than 10% of the population of the city perished. The outbreak was modelled by 9 differential equations describing flea, rat, and human populations. This resulted in a close fit to the historical records of this outbreak. An interesting implication of the model is that the introduction of even a small number of immune rats into an otherwise unchanged setting results in an abortive outbreak with very few human victims. Hence, the percentage of immune rats directly influences the magnitude of a human epidemic by diverting search activities of the fleas. Thus, we conclude that the spread of Rattus norvegicus, which might acquire partial herd immunity by exposure to soil- or water-borne Yersinia species due to its preference for wet habitats, contributed to the disappearance of Black Death epidemics from Europe in the 18th century. In order to prove whether or not the parameter values obtained by fitting a given outbreak are also applicable to other cases, we modelled the plague outbreak in Bombay 1905/06 using the same parameter values except for the number of humans as well as of immune and susceptible rats.

  11. A model of the factors affecting international postgraduate students’ pursuit of degrees: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desmond Wesley Govender

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present a model of the factors affecting international students’ pursuit of their academic degrees in tertiary institutions. This was achieved by identifying factors that commonly affect international postgraduate students. This was a questionnaire based case study with a sample of 24 post-graduate international students from one university in KwaZulu-Natal. Questionnaires were analysed using SPSS (version 21.0 and WarpPLS (4.0. WarpPLS (4.0 was used to draw up a statistically based model regarding the factors affecting international students in pursuit of their academic degrees. Results from the model show that financial stress, accommodation challenges, cultural shock, loneliness/homesick, communication skills and evaluation of their (previous university experience affect students in their pursuit of their academic degrees in higher education. These findings could be used by students themselves to make them aware of possible challenges that lie ahead as well as by staff in international student offices at higher education institutions.

  12. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, Lynn M [Scripps/UCSD; Lubin, Dan [Scripps/UCSD

    2013-06-18

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the

  13. Novel Formulation of Adaptive MPC as EKF Using ANN Model: Multiproduct Semibatch Polymerization Reactor Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, Kalipatnapu Yamuna

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, a novel formulation for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed incorporating the extended Kalman filter (EKF) control concept using a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model based on measurements for supervisory control. The proposed scheme consists of two modules focusing on online parameter estimation based on past measurements and control estimation over control horizon based on minimizing the deviation of model output predictions from set points along the prediction horizon. An industrial case study for temperature control of a multiproduct semibatch polymerization reactor posed as a challenge problem has been considered as a test bed to apply the proposed ANN-EKFMPC strategy at supervisory level as a cascade control configuration along with proportional integral controller [ANN-EKFMPC with PI (ANN-EKFMPC-PI)]. The proposed approach is formulated incorporating all aspects of MPC including move suppression factor for control effort minimization and constraint-handling capability including terminal constraints. The nominal stability analysis and offset-free tracking capabilities of the proposed controller are proved. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with a standard MPC-based cascade control approach using the same adaptive ANN model. The ANN-EKFMPC-PI control configuration has shown better controller performance in terms of temperature tracking, smoother input profiles, as well as constraint-handling ability compared with the ANN-MPC with PI approach for two products in summer and winter. The proposed scheme is found to be versatile although it is based on a purely data-driven model with online parameter estimation.

  14. Chaitanya case study

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    lremy

    sustainability, that began at our inception 12 years ago. This case study ... women. Over the years, we moved towards building a model of sustainable institutions .... poverty alleviation. However, over the last decade, a number of organizations had gained expertise in organizing and managing SHGs and as a result, very few.

  15. Promoting Profit Model Innovation in Animation Project in Northeast Asia: Case Study on Chinese Cultural and Creative Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Hao Jiao; Yupei Wang; Hongjun Xiao; Jianghua Zhou; Wensi Zeng

    2017-01-01

    Building on a case study of three animation companies in the Chinese cultural and creative industry, this study aims to understand how profit model innovation is promoted. Due to the rapidly changing environments and resource scarcity, cultural and creative companies need to select the appropriate profit model according to their own key resources. The study uncovers two critical factors that promote profit model innovation in animation projects: the quantity of consumers and their consumption...

  16. Nurse-Designed Care Models and Culture of Health: Review of Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Martsolf; Diana J, Mason; Jennifer, Sloan; Cheryl G, Sullivan; Antonia M, Villarruel

    2018-01-01

    The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) recently made a commitment to advancing a national culture of health (COH)-an action framework developed by RWJF that focuses on well-being and equity with the goal of empowering and supporting people to lead healthier lives where they live, learn, work, and play, now and in generations to come. Nurses are well positioned to provide care that is consistent with, and contributes to, a COH in their communities. RWJF contracted with the American Academy of Nursing (the Academy) with a subcontract to the RAND Corporation to explore the ways that innovative nurse-designed models of care are currently advancing a COH. This article presents findings from case studies of three nurse-designed care models that have been recognized as innovative by the Academy's Edge Runner program, which identifies nurses who have designed innovations to remedy challenges in the delivery of health care or address an unmet health need of a population, and who can demonstrate positive clinical and financial outcomes. Findings indicate that nurse-designed models of care focus extensively on activities in the four different "action areas" set forth in RWJF's COH framework: making health a shared value; fostering cross-section collaboration to improve well-being; creating healthier, more equitable communities; and strengthening integration of health services and systems. Strong leadership and broad community support were key to the success of each of these models. A persistent challenge was identifying a sustainable funding mechanism for community-level efforts aimed at addressing social determinants of health-most of these efforts are currently grant-funded.

  17. Case Study: Teaching Nature of Science through Scientific Models--The Geocentric vs. Heliocentric Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Matthew; Rogers, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In the nonmajor science classroom, case studies--when used as learning tools--should help students build the necessary framework to understand the nature of science. For most students, the nonmajor science course (in this case, Astronomy 101) may be the last time that they interact with science in a formal learning setting. A National Science…

  18. A model for screening and prioritizing consumer nanoproduct risks: A case study from South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musee, Ndeke

    2017-03-01

    The potential risks of the increasing variety and volume of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) entering into the ecosystem remain poorly quantified. In recent years, information essential to evaluate the ecological risks of ENMs has increased. However, the data are highly fragmented, limited, or severely lacking. This limits the usefulness of the information to support holistic screening and prioritization of potentially harmful ENMs. To screen and prioritize ENMs risks, we adopted a two-phased approach. First, a holistic framework model was developed to integrate a diverse set of factors aimed to assess the potential hazard, exposure, and in turn, risk to the ecosystem of ENMs from a given consumer nanoproduct. Secondly, using published literature we created a database of consumer nanoproduct categories, and types based on embedded ENMs type. The database consisted of eight consumer product categories, eleven different types of ENMs, and twenty-three nanoproduct types. The model results indicates the largest quantities of ENMs were released from sunscreens, textiles, cosmetics and paints with dominant ENMs quantities in descending order (based on quantity) as nTiO 2 >nZnO>nSiO 2 >nAg, and nFe 2 O 3 . In addition, according to the results from this study, nAg from washing machine were found to likely the highest risk to the environment. Overall, our model-derived results based on the case study illustrated: (i) the holistic framework's ability to screen, prioritize, rank, and compare ENMs potential exposure and risks among different nanoproducts categories and types, (ii) the derived risk estimations could support nanowastes classification with likelihood of non-uniformity of nanowastes classes even from the same nanoproduct category (e.g. cosmetics), and (iii) the lack of a mass-based criteria specific for EMNs impedes realistic exposure and risk evaluation in the ecological systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Status study of knowledge management in universities and to provide a suitable model (Case Study: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangir, Mustafa; Asadi, M. Mahdi

    2010-05-01

    During the past two decades to increase the volume of information and knowledge in organizations and the necessity of effective use of it in Organizational decisions is led to the emerging phenomenon of knowledge management. Knowledge management, including all the ways the organization manage their knowledge assets that include how collection, storage, transfer, deployment, update and create knowledge. Universities that type of knowledge based organizations are important sources of knowledge and therefore can be considered as strategic in universities and higher education centers of knowledge management will be more important. In this research The status of knowledge management in universities and a case study of Mashhad University are checked are the problems and challenges are identified and finally as for the features, requirements and conditions to implement a model for universities and deployment of knowledge management is presented in it.Therefore, basic research problem is: the status of knowledge management in universities and the case Mashhad University is how and which model for implementation and deployment of knowledge management is recommended? Importance and necessity of research topicare: Knowledge management experts in the emergence of knowledge management consider four major factors:1) passing the material tangible assets dominated era to the domination of capital in non-palpable, nonetheless organizations. 2) increase the extraordinary volume of information, the electronic storage and increased access to information 3) risk to the story of institutional knowledge due to retirement or exit from the crew 4) become more specialized activities in the organization 5) the emergence of knowledge based organizations and incidence of the most important capital is its knowledge. Knowledge management solutions focus on the entire system, including organization, human resources and technology in the take-the most important tools for solving problems and

  20. Study on Regional Agro-ecological Risk and Pressure Supported by City Expansion Model and SERA Model - A Case Study of Selangor, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Shi , Xiaoxia; Zhang , Yaoli; Peng , Cheng

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This study revealed the influence of city expansion on the agro-ecological risks through the analysis and prediction of city expansion in different periods and study on the change of risk and pressure on the regional agricultural eco-environment. The city expansion of Selangor, Malaysia (as a case) was predicted based on relevant spatial and attribute data as well as simulation prediction models of city expansion. Subsequently, the ecological risk and pressure in the s...

  1. A case study on robust optimal experimental design for model calibration of ω-Transaminase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daele, Timothy, Van; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    Proper calibration of models describing enzyme kinetics can be quite challenging. This is especially the case for more complex models like transaminase models (Shin and Kim, 1998). The latter fitted model parameters, but the confidence on the parameter estimation was not derived. Hence, the usabi......Proper calibration of models describing enzyme kinetics can be quite challenging. This is especially the case for more complex models like transaminase models (Shin and Kim, 1998). The latter fitted model parameters, but the confidence on the parameter estimation was not derived. Hence......, the usability of the parameter estimates is difficult to assess.In this paper, the confidence is derived, using the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) for the backward reaction (conversion of acetophenone and alanine to α-methylbenzylamine and pyruvate). FIM computation requires local parameter sensitivities...... is to make the design less dependent on one specific parameter set, but make it suitable for a subset of parameters in a local parameter space.This robust OED methodology is currently being applied to the backward part of the model of Shin and Kim (1998) to design experiments for the conversion of 1-methyl-2...

  2. The composite supply chain efficiency model: A case study of the Sishen-Saldanha supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila L. Goedhals-Gerber

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As South Africa strives to be a major force in global markets, it is essential that South African supply chains achieve and maintain a competitive advantage. One approach to achieving this is to ensure that South African supply chains maximise their levels of efficiency. Consequently, the efficiency levels of South Africa’s supply chains must be evaluated. The objective of this article is to propose a model that can assist South African industries in becoming internationally competitive by providing them with a tool for evaluating their levels of efficiency both as individual firms and as a component in an overall supply chain. The Composite Supply Chain Efficiency Model (CSCEM was developed to measure supply chain efficiency across supply chains using variables identified as problem areas experienced by South African supply chains. The CSCEM is tested in this article using the Sishen-Saldanda iron ore supply chain as a case study. The results indicate that all three links or nodes along the Sishen-Saldanha iron ore supply chain performed well. The average efficiency of the rail leg was 97.34%, while the average efficiency of the mine and the port were 97% and 95.44%, respectively. The results also show that the CSCEM can be used by South African firms to measure their levels of supply chain efficiency. This article concludes with the benefits of the CSCEM.

  3. “Product-Process-Machine” System Modeling: Approach and Industrial Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Smirnov, Alexander; Sandkuhl, Kurt; Shilov, Nikolay; Kashevnik, Alexey

    2013-01-01

    Part 6: Enterprise Modelling Cases; International audience; Global trends in the worldwide economy lead to new challenges for manufacturing enterprises and to new requirements regarding modeling industrial organizations, like integration of real-time information from operations and information about neighboring enterprises in the value network. Consequently, there is a need to design new, knowledge-based workflows and supporting software systems to increase efficiency of designing and maintai...

  4. Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: A case study on Protein Kinase A

    OpenAIRE

    Sophia P Hirakis; Britton Warren Boras; Lane W Votapka; Robert Dean Malmstrom; Robert Dean Malmstrom; Andrew D McCulloch; Andrew D McCulloch; Andrew D McCulloch; Rommie E Amaro; Rommie E Amaro

    2015-01-01

    The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained fr...

  5. Comparative environmental assessment of wood transport models: a case study of a Swedish pulp mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Berg, Staffan; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, Ma Teresa

    2009-05-15

    Wood transportation from forest landing to forest-based industries uses large amounts of energy. In the case of Sweden, where forest operations are highly and efficiently mechanized, this stage consumes more fossil fuels than other elements of the wood supply chain (such as silviculture and logging operations). This paper intends to compare the environmental burdens associated to different wood transport models considering a Swedish pulp mill as a case study by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as an analytical tool. Five scenarios (the current one and four alternative reliable scenarios) were proposed and analysed taking into account two variables. On the one hand, the influence of imported pulpwood share from Baltic countries and on the other hand, the use of rail transportation for wood transport. In particular, the following impact categories were assessed: Eutrophication, Global Warming, Photochemical Oxidant Formation, Acidification and Fossil fuel extraction. The environmental results indicate that transport alternatives including electric and diesel trains, as well as the reduction in Baltic wood imports should present better environmental performance than the current scenario in terms of all the impact categories under study. Remarkable differences were identified with regard to energy requirements. This divergence is related to different long-distance transport strategies (lorry, boat and/or train) as well as the relative import of wood selected. The combination of lorry and train in wood transportation from Southern Sweden plus the reduction of wood imports from 25% to 15% seems to be more favourable from an environmental perspective. The results obtained allow forecasting the importance of the wood transport strategy in the wood supply chain in LCA of forest products and the influence of energy requirements in the results.

  6. Application of power addition as modelling technique for flow processes: Two case studies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    de Wet, P

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available through diaphragm valve and the fluidisation of a packed bed, are analysed as case studies. Empirical results are investigated for possible asymptotic bounds where after power addition is applied to the functional dependencies. The outcome is compared...

  7. The importance of magnetic methods for soil mapping and process modelling. Case study in Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshov, Oleksandr; Pereira, Paulo; Kruglov, Oleksandr; Sukhorada, Anatoliy

    2016-04-01

    The correct planning of agriculture areas is fundamental for a sustainable future in Ukraine. After the recent political problems in Ukraine, new challenges emerged regarding sustainability questions. At the same time the soil mapping and modelling are intensively developing all over the world (Pereira et al., 2015; Brevik et al., in press). Magnetic susceptibility (MS) methods are low cost and accurate for the developing maps of agricultural areas, fundamental for Ukrain's economy.This allow to colleact a great amount of soil data, usefull for a better understading of the spatial distribution of soil properties. Recently, this method have been applied in other works in Ukraine and elsewhere (Jordanova et al., 2011; Menshov et al., 2015). The objective of this work is to study the spatial distribution of MS and humus content on the topsoils (0-5 cm) in two different areas. The first is located in Poltava region and the second in Kharkiv region. The results showed that MS depends of soil type, topography and anthropogenic influence. For the interpretation of MS spatial distribution in top soil we consider the frequency and time after the last tillage, tilth depth, fertilizing, and the puddling regarding the vehicle model. On average the soil MS of the top soil of these two cases is about 30-70×10-8 m3/kg. In Poltava region not disturbed soil has on average MS values of 40-50×10-8 m3/kg, for Kharkiv region 50-60×10-8 m3/kg. The tilled soil of Poltava region has on average an MS of 60×10-8 m3/kg, and 70×10-8 m3/kg in Kharkiv region. MS is higher in non-tilled soils than in the tilled ones. The correlation between MS and soil humus content is very high ( up to 0.90) in both cases. Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma (in press), doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017 Jordanova D., Jordanova N., Atanasova A., Tsacheva T., Petrov P

  8. Modeling study of biomass burning plumes and their impact on urban air quality; a case study of Santiago de Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuchiara, G. C.; Rappenglück, B.; Rubio, M. A.; Lissi, E.; Gramsch, E.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2017-10-01

    On January 4, 2014, during the summer period in South America, an intense forest and dry pasture wildfire occurred nearby the city of Santiago de Chile. On that day the biomass-burning plume was transported by low-intensity winds towards the metropolitan area of Santiago and impacted the concentration of pollutants in this region. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is implemented to investigate the biomass-burning plume associated with these wildfires nearby Santiago, which impacted the ground-level ozone concentration and exacerbated Santiago's air quality. Meteorological variables simulated by WRF/Chem are compared against surface and radiosonde observations, and the results show that the model reproduces fairly well the observed wind speed, wind direction air temperature and relative humidity for the case studied. Based on an analysis of the transport of an inert tracer released over the locations, and at the time the wildfires were captured by the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the model reproduced reasonably well the transport of biomass burning plume towards the city of Santiago de Chile within a time delay of two hours as observed in ceilometer data. A six day air quality simulation was performed: the first three days were used to validate the anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and the last three days (during and after the wildfire event) to analyze the performance of WRF/Chem plume-rise model within FINNv1 fire emission estimations. The model presented a satisfactory performance on the first days of the simulation when contrasted against data from the well-established air quality network over the city of Santiago de Chile. These days represent the urban air quality base case for Santiago de Chile unimpacted by fire emissions. However, for the last three simulation days, which were impacted by the fire emissions, the statistical indices showed a decrease in

  9. Mathematical modeling of human glioma growth based on brain topological structures: study of two clinical cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Suarez

    Full Text Available Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumors and yet almost incurable due mainly to their great invasion capability. This represents a challenge to present clinical oncology. Here, we introduce a mathematical model aiming to improve tumor spreading capability definition. The model consists in a time dependent reaction-diffusion equation in a three-dimensional spatial domain that distinguishes between different brain topological structures. The model uses a series of digitized images from brain slices covering the whole human brain. The Talairach atlas included in the model describes brain structures at different levels. Also, the inclusion of the Brodmann areas allows prediction of the brain functions affected during tumor evolution and the estimation of correlated symptoms. The model is solved numerically using patient-specific parametrization and finite differences. Simulations consider an initial state with cellular proliferation alone (benign tumor, and an advanced state when infiltration starts (malign tumor. Survival time is estimated on the basis of tumor size and location. The model is used to predict tumor evolution in two clinical cases. In the first case, predictions show that real infiltrative areas are underestimated by current diagnostic imaging. In the second case, tumor spreading predictions were shown to be more accurate than those derived from previous models in the literature. Our results suggest that the inclusion of differential migration in glioma growth models constitutes another step towards a better prediction of tumor infiltration at the moment of surgical or radiosurgical target definition. Also, the addition of physiological/psychological considerations to classical anatomical models will provide a better and integral understanding of the patient disease at the moment of deciding therapeutic options, taking into account not only survival but also life quality.

  10. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  11. Model Independence in Downscaled Climate Projections: a Case Study in the Southeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, G. M. E.; Boyles, R.

    2016-12-01

    Downscaled climate projections are used to deduce how the climate will change in future decades at local and regional scales. It is important to use multiple models to characterize part of the future uncertainty given the impact on adaptation decision making. This is traditionally employed through an equally-weighted ensemble of multiple GCMs downscaled using one technique. Newer practices include several downscaling techniques in an effort to increase the ensemble's representation of future uncertainty. However, this practice may be adding statistically dependent models to the ensemble. Previous research has shown a dependence problem in the GCM ensemble in multiple generations, but has not been shown in the downscaled ensemble. In this case study, seven downscaled climate projections on the daily time scale are considered: CLAREnCE10, SERAP, BCCA (CMIP5 and CMIP3 versions), Hostetler, CCR, and MACA-LIVNEH. These data represent 83 ensemble members, 44 GCMs, and two generations of GCMs. Baseline periods are compared against the University of Idaho's METDATA gridded observation dataset. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is applied to the correlated errors to determine dependent clusters. Redundant GCMs across different downscaling techniques show the most dependence, while smaller dependence signals are detected within downscaling datasets and across generations of GCMs. These results indicate that using additional downscaled projections to increase the ensemble size must be done with care to avoid redundant GCMs and the process of downscaling may increase the dependence of those downscaled GCMs. Climate model generation does not appear dissimilar enough to be treated as two separate statistical populations for ensemble building at the local and regional scales.

  12. Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condom, Thomas; Coudrain, Anne; Dezetter, Alain; Brunstein, Daniel; Delclaux, François; Jean-Emmanuel, Sicart

    2004-09-01

    A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid-month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km2), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km2 and 55 000 km2, respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake-level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5.5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year.

  13. Spatio-temporal precipitation error propagation in runoff modelling: a case study in central Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olsson

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The propagation of spatio-temporal errors in precipitation estimates to runoff errors in the output from the conceptual hydrological HBV model was investigated. The study region was the Gimån catchment in central Sweden, and the period year 2002. Five precipitation sources were considered: NWP model (H22, weather radar (RAD, precipitation gauges (PTH, and two versions of a mesoscale analysis system (M11, M22. To define the baseline estimates of precipitation and runoff, used to define seasonal precipitation and runoff biases, the mesoscale climate analysis M11 was used. The main precipitation biases were a systematic overestimation of precipitation by H22, in particular during winter and early spring, and a pronounced local overestimation by RAD during autumn, in the western part of the catchment. These overestimations in some cases exceeded 50% in terms of seasonal subcatchment relative accumulated volume bias, but generally the bias was within ±20%. The precipitation data from the different sources were used to drive the HBV model, set up and calibrated for two stations in Gimån, both for continuous simulation during 2002 and for forecasting of the spring flood peak. In summer, autumn and winter all sources agreed well. In spring H22 overestimated the accumulated runoff volume by ~50% and peak discharge by almost 100%, owing to both overestimated snow depth and precipitation during the spring flood. PTH overestimated spring runoff volumes by ~15% owing to overestimated winter precipitation. The results demonstrate how biases in precipitation estimates may exhibit a substantial space-time variability, and may further become either magnified or reduced when applied for hydrological purposes, depending on both temporal and spatial variations in the catchment. Thus, the uncertainty in precipitation estimates should preferably be specified as a function of both time and space.

  14. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  15. Competing with the use of business model innovation : an exploratory case study of the journey of born global firms

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Marlene; Abrahamsson, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...

  16. Modeling Irrigation Networks for the Quantification of Potential Energy Recovering: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modesto Pérez-Sánchez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Water irrigation systems are required to provide adequate pressure levels in any sort of network. Quite frequently, this requirement is achieved by using pressure reducing valves (PRVs. Nevertheless, the possibility of using hydraulic machines to recover energy instead of PRVs could reduce the energy footprint of the whole system. In this research, a new methodology is proposed to help water managers quantify the potential energy recovering of an irrigation water network with adequate conditions of topographies distribution. EPANET has been used to create a model based on probabilities of irrigation and flow distribution in real networks. Knowledge of the flows and pressures in the network is necessary to perform an analysis of economic viability. Using the proposed methodology, a case study has been analyzed in a typical Mediterranean region and the potential available energy has been estimated. The study quantifies the theoretical energy recoverable if hydraulic machines were installed in the network. Particularly, the maximum energy potentially recovered in the system has been estimated up to 188.23 MWh/year with a potential saving of non-renewable energy resources (coal and gas of CO2 137.4 t/year.

  17. Prediction of Frost Risks and Plagues using WRF model: a Port Wine region case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, M. A.; Rocha, A.; Monteiro, A.; Quénol, H.; de Freitas, J. R.

    2012-04-01

    In viticulture where the quality of the wine, the selection of the grapevines or even the characteristics of the farming soil, also depending from local soil features like topography, proximity of a river or water body, will act locally on the weather. Frosts are of significant concern to growers of many cultures crops such as winegrapes. Because of their high latitude and some altitude, the vineyards of the Demarcated Douro Region (DDR) are subjected to the frost, which cause serious damages. But the hazards of vineyard don't confine to the incidents of the fortuitous and meteorological character. The illnesses and plagues affect frequently the vineyards of Demarcated Douro Region due, namely to the weather, to the high power of the regional stocks, to the dense vegetation badly drained and favourable to the setting of numberless fungi, viruses and/or poisonous insects. In the case of DDR it is worth noticing the meteorological conditions due to the weather characteristics. Although there are several illnesses and plagues the most important enemies for the vine in the DDR are the mildew, oidium, grey rottenness, grape moth,. . . , if the climatic conditions favour their appearance and development. For this study, we selected some months for different periods, at the 16 weather stations of the Region of Douro. We use the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) to study and possibly predict the occurrence of risk and plagues (mildew) episodes. The model is first validated with the meteorological data obtained at the weather stations. The knowledge of frost and plagues occurrence allows one to decrease its risks not only by selecting the cultural species and varieties but also the places of growth and the planting and sowing dates.

  18. Inclusive business model in tapioca starch industry in Lake Toba area: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tampubolon, S.; Manik, Y.

    2018-04-01

    The notion of inclusive business calls for additional focus and innovation in the way companies do business which seeks to contribute to poverty alleviation by including Bottom of the Pyramids (BoP) communities within its value chain while not losing sight of the ultimate goal of business. Lake Toba Area has potentials in providing chances for doing businesses. On the other hand, the growth of market size is rather slow and demographically still dominated by BoP. This is a case study which seeks to investigate to what extent the Inclusive Business Model (IBM) is adopted in the strategic planning and applied in the operational management of companies that operate in Lake Toba Area. The study was conducted in qualitative basis. The observation was conducted by gathering data and information through a series of interviews with the top management and desk study of the business plan in a tapioca starch industry in Toba Samosir Regency. The collected data and information were then analyzed qualitatively by comparing them with criteria and parameters of IBM suggested in a vast body of literature. The reference by which the IBM is referred in this study is a series of criteria which is synthesized from a literature review on a vast body of literature about IBM. From data analysis, it is evident that IBM has been incorporated in the strategic plan and applied in the operational activities of the object of this study. However, we also found some rooms for improvement such as expanding the involvement of BoP in their value chain as consumers, by which some innovation in the product diversification is required.

  19. A Comparative Review on Computational Modeling Paradigms. A Study on Case-Based Modeling and Political Terrorism

    OpenAIRE

    Voinea, Camelia Florela

    2007-01-01

    We review the advances in Case-Based Computational Modeling on Political Analysis issues. Starting in early „70s, the research on political terrorism has been challenged by the latest advances of terrorism computational modeling research. Nowadays Political Analysis community has a wider perspective over the terrorism research aims, methodology and instruments. Widening up this perspective is not a matter of political analysis and research only, it is as well a long-term effect...

  20. A model for prioritizing landfills for remediation and closure: A case study in Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubavin, Dejan; Agarski, Boris; Maodus, Nikola; Stanisavljevic, Nemanja; Budak, Igor

    2018-01-01

    The existence of large numbers of landfills that do not fulfill sanitary prerequisites presents a serious hazard for the environment in lower income countries. One of the main hazards is landfill leachate that contains various pollutants and presents a threat to groundwater. Groundwater pollution from landfills depends on various mutually interconnected factors such as the waste type and amount, the amount of precipitation, the landfill location characteristics, and operational measures, among others. Considering these factors, lower income countries face a selection problem where landfills urgently requiring remediation and closure must be identified from among a large number of sites. The present paper proposes a model for prioritizing landfills for closure and remediation based on multicriteria decision making, in which the hazards of landfill groundwater pollution are evaluated. The parameters for the prioritization of landfills are the amount of waste disposed, the amount of precipitation, the vulnerability index, and the rate of increase of the amount of waste in the landfill. Verification was performed using a case study in Serbia where all municipal landfills were included and 128 landfills were selected for prioritization. The results of the evaluation of Serbian landfills, prioritizing sites for closure and remediation, are presented for the first time. Critical landfills are identified, and prioritization ranks for the selected landfills are provided. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:105-119. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  1. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  2. Improving the Teaching of ICT Engineering using Flipped Learning: a personalized model and a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhak Aqqal

    Full Text Available Abstract In recent years, Flipped Classroom started to be used as an effective way of teaching Engineering among various strategies in higher education. However, enabling and using the flipped learning is a complicated task, not a straightforward goal that can be simply achieved through a combination of face-to-face and online activities. It requires a more sophisticated understanding of effective teaching methods to manage the shift from the traditional to the flipped learning and the optimum adaptation of technology as part of this change. Given this challenge, this research work provides a personalized model of the flipped classroom and investigates through a case study in an Engineering School how our approach can be used to improve teaching of Information and Communication Technology (ICT Engineering. It assesses by using empirically data related to the interaction of the various actors at different levels of abstraction, particularly from a gender perspective, the relevance and the impact of the flipped classroom on student learning and achievement in ICT Engineering Education.

  3. Understanding Heterogeneity in Clinical Cohorts Using Normative Models: Beyond Case-Control Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquand, Andre F; Rezek, Iead; Buitelaar, Jan; Beckmann, Christian F

    2016-10-01

    Despite many successes, the case-control approach is problematic in biomedical science. It introduces an artificial symmetry whereby all clinical groups (e.g., patients and control subjects) are assumed to be well defined, when biologically they are often highly heterogeneous. By definition, it also precludes inference over the validity of the diagnostic labels. In response, the National Institute of Mental Health Research Domain Criteria proposes to map relationships between symptom dimensions and broad behavioral and biological domains, cutting across diagnostic categories. However, to date, Research Domain Criteria have prompted few methods to meaningfully stratify clinical cohorts. We introduce normative modeling for parsing heterogeneity in clinical cohorts, while allowing predictions at an individual subject level. This approach aims to map variation within the cohort and is distinct from, and complementary to, existing approaches that address heterogeneity by employing clustering techniques to fractionate cohorts. To demonstrate this approach, we mapped the relationship between trait impulsivity and reward-related brain activity in a large healthy cohort (N = 491). We identify participants who are outliers within this distribution and show that the degree of deviation (outlier magnitude) relates to specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms (hyperactivity, but not inattention) on the basis of individualized patterns of abnormality. Normative modeling provides a natural framework to study disorders at the individual participant level without dichotomizing the cohort. Instead, disease can be considered as an extreme of the normal range or as-possibly idiosyncratic-deviation from normal functioning. It also enables inferences over the degree to which behavioral variables, including diagnostic labels, map onto biology. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Low-Carbon Transportation Oriented Urban Spatial Structure: Theory, Model and Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyao Ye

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Optimising the spatial structure of cities to promote low-carbon travel is a primary goal of urban planning and construction innovation in the low-carbon era. There is a need for basic research on the structural characteristics that help to reduce motor traffic, thereby promoting energy conservation. We first review the existing literature on the influence of urban spatial structure on transport carbon dioxide emissions and summarise the influence mechanisms. We then present two low-carbon transportation oriented patterns of urban spatial structure including the traditional walking city and the modern transit metropolis, illustrated by case studies. Furthermore, we propose an improved model Green Transportation System Oriented Development (GTOD, which is an extension of traditional transit-oriented development (TOD and includes the additional features of a walking city and an emphasis on the integration of land use with a green transportation system, consisting of the public transportation and non-auto travel system. A compact urban form, effective mix of land use and appropriate scale of block are the basic structural features of a low-carbon transportation city. However, these features are only effective at promoting low-carbon transportation when integrated with the green traffic systems. Proper integration of the urban structural system with the green space system is also required. The optimal land use/transportation integration strategy is to divide traffic corridors with wedge-shaped green spaces and limit development along the transit corridors. This strategy forms the basis of the proposed urban structural model to promote low-carbon transportation and sustainable urban growth management.

  5. Application Of Decision Tree Approach To Student Selection Model- A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Sudiya, Amby

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the institution is to provide quality education to the students and to improve the quality of managerial decisions. One of the ways to improve the quality of students is to arrange the selection of new students with a more selective. This research takes the case in the selection of new students at Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. One of the university's selection is through filtering administrative selection based on the records of prospective students at the high school without paper testing. Currently, that kind of selection does not yet has a standard model and criteria. Selection is only done by comparing candidate application file, so the subjectivity of assessment is very possible to happen because of the lack standard criteria that can differentiate the quality of students from one another. By applying data mining techniques classification, can be built a model selection for new students which includes criteria to certain standards such as the area of origin, the status of the school, the average value and so on. These criteria are determined by using rules that appear based on the classification of the academic achievement (GPA) of the students in previous years who entered the university through the same way. The decision tree method with C4.5 algorithm is used here. The results show that students are given priority for admission is that meet the following criteria: came from the island of Java, public school, majoring in science, an average value above 75, and have at least one achievement during their study in high school.

  6. Mitigation of urban heat stress – a modelling case study for the area of Stuttgart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fallmann, Joachim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2050 the fraction of urban global population will increase to over 69%, which means that around 6.3 billion people are expected to live in urban areas (UN 2011. Cities are the predominant habitation places for humans to live and are vulnerable to extreme weather events aggravating phenomena like heat stress. Finding mitigation strategies to sustain future development is of great importance, given expected influences on human health. In this study, the mesoscale numerical model WRF is used on a regional scale for the urban area of Stuttgart, to simulate the effect of urban planning strategies on dynamical processes affecting urban climate. After comparing two urban parameterisation schemes, a sensitivity study for different scenarios is performed; it shows that a change of the reflective properties of surfaces has the highest impact on near-surface temperatures compared to an increase of urban green areas or a decrease of building density. The Urban Heat Island (UHI describes the temperature difference between urban and rural temperatures; it characterises regional urban climate and is responsible for urban-rural circulation patterns. Applying urban planning measures may decrease the intensity of the UHI in the study area by up to 2 °C by using heat-reflective roof paints or by 1 °C through replacing impervious surfaces by natural vegetation in the urban vicinity – compared to a value of 2.5 °C for the base case. Because of its topographical location in a valley and the overall high temperatures in this region, the area of Stuttgart suffers from heat stress to a comparatively large extent.

  7. Modeling the Economic Incentives of DDoS Attacks: Femtocell Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Vicente; Lahuerta, Javier

    Many of the Internet security incidents are caused by agents which act moved by economic incentives. When that is the case, it is possible to model at tacker's incentives by applying economics principles and, if we can collect appropriate data, we can use the model to have a better understanding of the risk imposed by these threats. This paper presents a simple model that represents the economic incentives for launching DDoS attacks against a specific telecommunications service. In addition, some data has been collected in order to quantify some of the variables of the model. Finally, some simulations have been performed to have a better knowledge of the risk of suffering this kind of attacks and propose solutions to mitigate it.

  8. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME). Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Musaeus, Peter; Bennedsen, Andreas Brændstrup; Hansen, Janne Saltoft

    2015-01-01

    I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics) ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation) for, hvordan...... kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse...

  9. Project management case studies

    CERN Document Server

    Kerzner, Harold R

    2013-01-01

    A new edition of the most popular book of project management case studies, expanded to include more than 100 cases plus a ""super case"" on the Iridium Project Case studies are an important part of project management education and training. This Fourth Edition of Harold Kerzner''s Project Management Case Studies features a number of new cases covering value measurement in project management. Also included is the well-received ""super case,"" which covers all aspects of project management and may be used as a capstone for a course. This new edition:Contains 100-plus case studies drawn from re

  10. Learning Gene Expression Through Modelling and Argumentation. A Case Study Exploring the Connections Between the Worlds of Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Blanca; Ageitos, Noa; Jiménez-Aleixandre, María Pilar

    2017-12-01

    There is emerging interest on the interactions between modelling and argumentation in specific contexts, such as genetics learning. It has been suggested that modelling might help students understand and argue on genetics. We propose modelling gene expression as a way to learn molecular genetics and diseases with a genetic component. The study is framed in Tiberghien's (2000) two worlds of knowledge, the world of "theories & models" and the world of "objects & events", adding a third component, the world of representations. We seek to examine how modelling and argumentation interact and connect the three worlds of knowledge while modelling gene expression. It is a case study of 10th graders learning about diseases with a genetic component. The research questions are as follows: (1) What argumentative and modelling operations do students enact in the process of modelling gene expression? Specifically, which operations allow connecting the three worlds of knowledge? (2) What are the interactions between modelling and argumentation in modelling gene expression? To what extent do these interactions help students connect the three worlds of knowledge and modelling gene expression? The argumentative operation of using evidence helps students to relate the three worlds of knowledge, enacted in all the connections. It seems to be a relationship among the number of interactions between modelling and argumentation, the connections between world of knowledge and students' capacity to develop a more sophisticated representation. Despite this is a case study, this approach of analysis reveals potentialities for a deeper understanding of learning genetics though scientific practices.

  11. Feasibibility study - cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Hvelplund, Frede Kloster; Sukkumnoed, Decharut

    2004-01-01

    The chapter presents two case studies to show the tools of feasibiliy studies within the context of technological innovation.......The chapter presents two case studies to show the tools of feasibiliy studies within the context of technological innovation....

  12. Model of cholera dissemination using geographic information systems and fuzzy clustering means: case study, Chabahar, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezeshki, Z; Tafazzoli-Shadpour, M; Mansourian, A; Eshrati, B; Omidi, E; Nejadqoli, I

    2012-10-01

    Cholera is spread by drinking water or eating food that is contaminated by bacteria, and is related to climate changes. Several epidemics have occurred in Iran, the most recent of which was in 2005 with 1133 cases and 12 deaths. This study investigated the incidence of cholera over a 10-year period in Chabahar district, a region with one of the highest incidence rates of cholera in Iran. Descriptive retrospective study on data of patients with Eltor and NAG cholera reported to the Iranian Centre of Disease Control between 1997 and 2006. Data on the prevalence of cholera were gathered through a surveillance system, and a spatial database was developed using geographic information systems (GIS) to describe the relation of spatial and climate variables to cholera incidences. Fuzzy clustering (fuzzy C) method and statistical analysis based on logistic regression were used to develop a model of cholera dissemination. The variables were demographic characteristics, specifications of cholera infection, climate conditions and some geographical parameters. The incidence of cholera was found to be significantly related to higher temperature and humidity, lower precipitation, shorter distance to the eastern border of Iran and local health centres, and longer distance to the district health centre. The fuzzy C means algorithm showed that clusters were geographically distributed in distinct regions. In order to plan, manage and monitor any public health programme, GIS provide ideal platforms for the convergence of disease-specific information, analysis and computation of new data for statistical analysis. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Lin

    2011-01-01

    This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

  14. Case Studies of Successful Schoolwide Enrichment Model-Reading (SEM-R) Classroom Implementations. Research Monograph Series. RM10204

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Sally M.; Little, Catherine A.; Fogarty, Elizabeth; Housand, Angela M.; Housand, Brian C.; Sweeny, Sheelah M.; Eckert, Rebecca D.; Muller, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the scaling up of the Schoolwide Enrichment Model in Reading (SEM-R) in 11 elementary and middle schools in geographically diverse sites across the country. Qualitative comparative analysis was used in this study, with multiple data sources compiled into 11 in-depth school case studies…

  15. Parameter and state estimation in a Neisseria meningitidis model: A study case of Niger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowong, S.; Mountaga, L.; Bah, A.; Tewa, J. J.; Kurths, J.

    2016-12-01

    Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of bacterial meningitidis outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East. The availability of yearly reported meningitis cases in the African meningitis belt offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies. In this paper, we propose a method for the estimation of state variables that are not accessible to measurements and an unknown parameter in a Nm model. We suppose that the yearly number of Nm induced mortality and the total population are known inputs, which can be obtained from data, and the yearly number of new Nm cases is the model output. We also suppose that the Nm transmission rate is an unknown parameter. We first show how the recruitment rate into the population can be estimated using real data of the total population and Nm induced mortality. Then, we use an auxiliary system called observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of the original model. This observer does not use the unknown infection transmission rate but only uses the known inputs and the model output. This allows us to estimate unmeasured state variables such as the number of carriers that play an important role in the transmission of the infection and the total number of infected individuals within a human community. Finally, we also provide a simple method to estimate the unknown Nm transmission rate. In order to validate the estimation results, numerical simulations are conducted using real data of Niger.

  16. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    In most operational wind power forecasting systems statistical methods are applied to map wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models into wind power forecasts. NWP models are complex mathematical models of the atmosphere that divide the earth’s surface into a grid. The spatial...... resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  17. The evolution of network-based business models illustrated through the case study of an entrepreneurship project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Nielsen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    time and how the role of strategic partners may differ over time too. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal case study spanning over years and mobilising multiple qualitative methods such as interviews, observation and participative observation forms the basis of the data collection. Findings......-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers......: This paper illustrates how a network-based business model arises and evolves and how the forces of a network structure impact the development of its partner relationships. The contribution of this article is to understanding how partners positioned around a business model can be organized into a network...

  18. Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacy, Marc; Gosakan, Mala; Eckdahl, Angela; Miller, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

  19. Bayesian Modeling for Genetic Anticipation in Presence of Mutational Heterogeneity: A Case Study in Lynch Syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boonstra, Philip S; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Taylor, Jeremy M G

    2011-01-01

    birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known...

  20. Examining Success and Sustainability of Academic Writing: A Case Study of Two Writing-Group Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olszewska, Kinga; Lock, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    In contemporary higher education there is a growing demand for academics to increase their publication output. This requirement raises the question of how institutions can best support a sustainable academic writing culture, which is needed to challenge the assumption that all academics know how to write for publication. This case study examines…

  1. Using Program Theory Models in Evaluation of Industrial Modernization Programs: Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torvatn, Hans

    1999-01-01

    Uses three case studies from Norwegian industrial modernization programs (a formative evaluation, a summative evaluation, and an additionality analysis) to demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of an evaluation tool called "chains of reasoning." Chains of reasoning uses text and a graphic image to present program activities and goals.…

  2. Class and Home Problems: Modeling of an Industrial Anaerobic Digester: A Case Study for Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durruty, Ignacio; Ayude, María A.

    2014-01-01

    The case study discussed in this work is used at the chemical reaction engineering course, offered in fifth-year of the chemical engineering undergraduate program at National University of Mar del Plata (UNMdP). A serial-parallel reaction system based on the anaerobic degradation of particulate-containing potato processing wastewater is presented.…

  3. Identifiability of parameters and behaviour of MCMC chains: a case study using the reaction norm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariati, M M; Korsgaard, I R; Sorensen, D

    2009-04-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) enables fitting complex hierarchical models that may adequately reflect the process of data generation. Some of these models may contain more parameters than can be uniquely inferred from the distribution of the data, causing non-identifiability. The reaction norm model with unknown covariates (RNUC) is a model in which unknown environmental effects can be inferred jointly with the remaining parameters. The problem of identifiability of parameters at the level of the likelihood and the associated behaviour of MCMC chains were discussed using the RNUC as an example. It was shown theoretically that when environmental effects (covariates) are considered as random effects, estimable functions of the fixed effects, (co)variance components and genetic effects are identifiable as well as the environmental effects. When the environmental effects are treated as fixed and there are other fixed factors in the model, the contrasts involving environmental effects, the variance of environmental sensitivities (genetic slopes) and the residual variance are the only identifiable parameters. These different identifiability scenarios were generated by changing the formulation of the model and the structure of the data and the models were then implemented via MCMC. The output of MCMC sampling schemes was interpreted in the light of the theoretical findings. The erratic behaviour of the MCMC chains was shown to be associated with identifiability problems in the likelihood, despite propriety of posterior distributions, achieved by arbitrarily chosen uniform (bounded) priors. In some cases, very long chains were needed before the pattern of behaviour of the chain may signal the existence of problems. The paper serves as a warning concerning the implementation of complex models where identifiability problems can be difficult to detect a priori. We conclude that it would be good practice to experiment with a proposed model and to understand its features

  4. Evaluation and modelling of a potential repository site - Olkiluoto case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Ahokas, H.; Loefman, J.; Pitkaenen, P.; Paulamaeki, S.; Snellman, M.

    1998-01-01

    The observations, interpretations and estimates resulting from site investigations were developed into conceptual bedrock model of the Olkiluoto area. Model development has been an interdisciplinary process and three major iterations have occurred. Geochemical sampling and a programme of electromagnetic and electrical soundings were carried out and interpreted to model occurrences of groundwater types. The parametrisation and modifications needed between geological models and ground-water flow simulation model is discussed. The latest groundwater flow modelling effort comprises the transient flow analysis taking into account the effects of density variations, the repository, post-glacial land uplift and global sea level rise. The main flow modeling result quantities (the amount, direction, velocity and routes as well as concentration of water) are used for evaluation of the investigation sites and of the preconditions for safe final disposal of spent nuclear fuel. Integration of hydrological and hydrogeochemical methods and studies has provided the primary method for investigating the evolution. Testing of flow models with hydro-geochemical information is considered to improve the hydrogeological understanding of a site and increases confidence in conceptual hydrogeological models. Bedrock model allows also comparisons to be made between its time-varying versions. The evolution of fracture frequency, fracture zone structures and hydraulic conductivity has been studied. A prediction-outcome comparison was made in selected boreholes and showed that the rock type was the easiest parameter to predict

  5. Relational Understanding of the Derivative Concept through Mathematical Modeling: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Zulal; Aydogan Yenmez, Arzu; Erbas, Ayhan Kursat

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate three second-year graduate students' awareness and understanding of the relationships among the "big ideas" that underlie the concept of derivative through modeling tasks and Skemp's distinction between relational and instrumental understanding. The modeling tasks consisting of warm-up,…

  6. A Case Study of the Introductory Psychology Blended Learning Model at McMaster University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph A. Kim

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a brief review of blended learning as a didactic method, and discusses the issues and challenges of using blended learning models in post-secondary education. Blended learning refers to mixed modes of instruction that combine traditional face-to-face classroom teaching methods and online learning materials. The paper will address challenges faced by large classrooms with a diverse student body, and the ways blended learning models can help alleviate those concerns (i.e. technologically savvy students, the need for course scheduling flexibility. In addition, a case study of blended learning in higher education in the context of a unique first year Introductory Psychology program at McMaster University will be discussed. Lastly, the important learning benefits offered by blended learning systems, along with the potential barriers to their implementation will be addressed.Cet article présente un bref compte rendu de l’apprentissage hybride en tant que méthode didactique. Il traite des problèmes et des enjeux relatifs à l’utilisation des modèles d’apprentissage hybride dans le domaine de l’enseignement postsecondaire. L’apprentissage hybride renvoie aux modes d’enseignement mixtes qui combinent les méthodes d’enseignement traditionnel en présentiel et l’accès à des documents d’apprentissage en ligne. L’article traite des difficultés rencontrées dans les grands groupes comprenant une diversité d’étudiants et des façons dont les modèles d’apprentissage hybride peuvent contribuer à atténuer ces préoccupations (c.-à-d. les étudiants calés en technologie, la nécessité d’une offre de cours souple. De plus, l’article traite d’une étude de cas sur l’apprentissage hybride dans l’enseignement supérieur dans le cadre de la première année d’un programme d’introduction à la psychologie à l’Université McMaster. Enfin, l’article aborde les importants avantages offerts par

  7. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  8. Landscape modelling case studies for Olkiluoto site in 2005-2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broed, R.

    2007-05-01

    This report documents the landscape modelling test cases implemented in the fall of 2005, complemented in 2006. The objective of the report is to illustrate the application of the landscape modelling methodology, to investigate the important factors of influence and to clarify methodological aspects. The results of this analysis are intended to serve as a basis for future assessments. Landscape modelling represents an approach for estimating doses to inhabitants of a landscape consisting of several interacting ecosystems which are affected by the contamination from potential radionuclide releases from a deep geological repository. From the model outputs, Landscape Dose Conversion Factors (LDFs) are calculated. These represent, for each radionuclide of concern, an estimate of the equilibrium dose arising from a constant unit release of activity into the landscape objects. Modelling is undertaken in the current report for static landscapes corresponding to future landscape configurations forecasted for four different points in time. The results of this modelling are not yet suitable for practical application to estimate doses which could result from the planned repository at the Olkiluoto site. To suit this eventual purpose, refinements of the modelling and reduced uncertainty of the important parameters used in the models will be necessary. The current report intends rather to investigate the important factors influencing modelled future doses arising from the planned repository and to clarify methodological aspects. Notwithstanding the restrictions of the current modelling, important conclusions already can be drawn from the results presented in this report. Several methodological aspects are addressed in this report. These are, in particular, the impact of the landscape configurations on the resulting dose estimates, the importance of model parameters and assumptions for the assessment results, the database for radionuclides requiring consideration, the importance

  9. MAPPING AND MODELLING FRACTURES USING GROUND PENETRATING RADAR FOR ORNAMENTAL STONE ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY OPTIMIZATION: TWO CASE STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Elkarmoty

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rock mass is typically characterized by inherent fractures that cause natural blocks of rocks. Unplanned cutting of stone deposits in quarries may lead to over-producing waste (rock debris or extracting unfit (fractured stone blocks. This paper presents two case studies through the use of low and high frequency Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR antennas to detect fractures in two benches of a quarry. In the first case study, a high frequency GPR antenna was used aiming to: (i compare the GPR results with a map of the out-cropping fracture intensity in the bench surface, developed using the data of the GPR survey marks and interpolated by the Ordinary Kriging technique, and (ii present how sub-vertical fractures can be numerically modelled in three dimensions from the GPR results. The second case study was focused on using a low frequency antenna to detect large aperture size of fracture surfaces as deep as possible in order to evaluate a deposit stratum before quarrying. This could be done through studying the reflections from a 3D cross-sectional GPR model and a 3D transparent GPR model. In the discussion section, an exploitation planning approach, based on modelling fractures as 3D surfaces, is theoretically and graphically proposed to optimize the stone production recovery. The two case studies showed that GPR is a successful tool for the assessment of ornamental stone deposits and a promising tool for recovery optimization.

  10. Joint generalized models for multidimensional outcomes: a case study of neuroscience data from multimodalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Feng

    2012-03-01

    This paper is motivated from the analysis of neuroscience data in a study of neural and muscular mechanisms of muscle fatigue. Multidimensional outcomes of different natures were obtained simultaneously from multiple modalities, including handgrip force, electromyography (EMG), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We first study individual modeling of the univariate response depending on its nature. A mixed-effects beta model and a mixed-effects simplex model are compared for modeling the force/EMG percentages. A mixed-effects negative-binomial model is proposed for modeling the fMRI counts. Then, I present a joint modeling approach to model the multidimensional outcomes together, which allows us to not only estimate the covariate effects but also to evaluate the strength of association among the multiple responses from different modalities. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the possible benefits by the new approaches in finite sample situations. Finally, the analysis of the fatigue data is illustrated with the use of the proposed methods. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. Modeling induced polarization effects in helicopter time domain electromagnetic data: Synthetic case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viezzoli, Andrea; Kaminskiy, Vladislav; Fiandaca, Gianluca

    2017-01-01

    We have developed a synthetic multiparametric modeling and inversion exercise undertaken to study the robustness of inverting airborne time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) data to extract Cole-Cole parameters. The following issues were addressed: nonuniqueness, ill posedness, dependency on manual...... constrained multiparametric inversion was evaluated, including recovery of chargeability distributions from shallow and deep targets based on analysis of induced polarization (IP) effects, simulated in airborne TDEM data. Different scenarios were studied, including chargeable targets associated...... by a shallower chargeable target, became possible only when full Cole-Cole modeling was used in the inversion. Lateral constraints improved the recoverability of model parameters. Finally, modeling IP effects increased the accuracy of recovered electrical resistivity models....

  12. The value of adding optics to ecosystem models: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujii

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Many ecosystem models have been developed to study the ocean's biogeochemical properties, but most of these models use simple formulations to describe light penetration and spectral quality. Here, an optical model is coupled with a previously published ecosystem model that explicitly represents two phytoplankton (picoplankton and diatoms and two zooplankton functional groups, as well as multiple nutrients and detritus. Surface ocean color fields and subsurface light fields are calculated by coupling the ecosystem model with an optical model that relates biogeochemical standing stocks with inherent optical properties (absorption, scattering; this provides input to a commercially available radiative transfer model (Ecolight. We apply this bio-optical model to the equatorial Pacific upwelling region, and find the model to be capable of reproducing many measured optical properties and key biogeochemical processes in this region. Our model results suggest that non-algal particles largely contribute to the total scattering or attenuation (>50% at 660 nm but have a much smaller contribution to particulate absorption (<20% at 440 nm, while picoplankton dominate the total phytoplankton absorption (>95% at 440 nm. These results are consistent with the field observations. In order to achieve such good agreement between data and model results, however, key model parameters, for which no field data are available, have to be constrained. Sensitivity analysis of the model results to optical parameters reveals a significant role played by colored dissolved organic matter through its influence on the quantity and quality of the ambient light. Coupling explicit optics to an ecosystem model provides advantages in generating: (1 a more accurate subsurface light-field, which is important for light sensitive biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis and photo-oxidation, (2 additional constraints on model parameters that help to reduce uncertainties in

  13. Electronic business model for small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME): a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Karina; Chung, Walter W.

    2001-10-01

    This paper identifies three essential factors (information infrastructure, executive information system and a new manufacturing paradigm) that are used to support the development of a new business model for competitiveness. They facilitate changes in organization structure in support of business transformation. A SME can source a good manufacturing practice using a model of academic-university collaboration to gain competitive advantage in the e-business world. The collaboration facilitates the change agents to use information systems development as a vehicle to increase the capability of executives in using information and knowledge management to gain higher responsiveness and customer satisfaction. The case company is used to illustrate the application of a web-based executive information system to interface internal communications with external operation. It explains where a good manufacturing practice may be re-applied by other SMEs to acquire skills as a learning organization grows in an extended enterprise setting.

  14. A case study: the evolution of a "facilitator model" liaison program in an academic medical library.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossno, Jon E; DeShay, Claudia H; Huslig, Mary Ann; Mayo, Helen G; Patridge, Emily F

    2012-07-01

    What type of liaison program would best utilize both librarians and other library staff to effectively promote library services and resources to campus departments? The case is an academic medical center library serving a large, diverse campus. The library implemented a "facilitator model" program to provide personalized service to targeted clients that allowed for maximum staff participation with limited subject familiarity. To determine success, details of liaison-contact interactions and results of liaison and department surveys were reviewed. Liaisons successfully recorded 595 interactions during the program's first 10 months of existence. A significant majority of departmental contact persons (82.5%) indicated they were aware of the liaison program, and 75% indicated they preferred email communication. The "facilitator model" provides a well-defined structure for assigning liaisons to departments or groups; however, training is essential to ensure that liaisons are able to communicate effectively with their clients.

  15. Blended Learning Analytics Model for Evaluation (BLAME. Et case-studie af universitetsunderviseres brug af Blackboard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Musaeus

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available I denne artikel vil vi præsentere en strategi til inddragelse af læringsanalytik (learning analytics ved evaluering af universitetsunderviseres brug af et nyt LMS på Aarhus Universitet: Blackboard. Vi diskuterer en model (BLAME: Blended Learning Analytics Model of Evaluation for, hvordan kategorisering af kurser og data om læringsanalytik indsamlet på Blackboard kan integreres. Endvidere belyser vi, hvilke implikationer en sådan læringsanalytik kan have for blended learning ved at analysere to forskellige uddannelses-cases/illustrationer. Dernæst diskuterer vi pædagogisk udvikling i forbindelse med evalueringsrapport om underviseres brug af Blackboard som beslutningsstøtte for feedback og pædagogisk intervention. Artiklen slutter med en diskussion af, hvordan data til læringsanalytik bør indsamles i LMS og bruges til afrapportering og undervisningsudvikling.

  16. Modelling and control of heat-integrated distillation columns: An industrial case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mauricio Iglesias, Miguel; Johansen, Kristoffer; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    Energy requirements of distillation processes account for a large percentage of the total energy consumption of the chemical industry. Hence, strategies for heat recovery have been extensively implemented in industrial processes during the last decades. However, operation (including start...... of energy wasted increases, questioning the economics of implementation of heat integration. Modelling is the foremost tool in assessment of chemical process dynamics. In the case of distillation, an extensive literature deals with classic distillation columns whereas much less has been investigated...... reboiler). Based on a numerical model of the system, two solutions are presented for improving its control: i) a fine tuning of the existing control strategy, therefore suitable for immediate implementation; and ii) a new control structure, including sensors and actuators for long term modification...

  17. Validation of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model: a large concurrent case/control study of hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrich, Ann L; Bender, Patricia S; Nyhuis, Allen

    2003-02-01

    This large case/control study of fall and non-fall patients, in an acute care tertiary facility, was designed to concurrently test the Hendrich Fall Risk Model. Cases and controls (355/780) were randomly enrolled and assessed for more than 600 risk factors (intrinsic/extrinsic). Standardized instruments were used for key physical attributes as well as clinician assessments. A risk factor model was developed through stepwise logistic regression. Two-way interactions among the risk factors were tested for significance. The best fitting model included 2 Log L chi square statistic as well as sensitivity and specificity values retrospectively. The result of the study is an easy to use validated Hendrich Fall Risk Model with eight assessment parameters for high-risk fall identification tested in acute care environments. Copyright 2003, Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

  18. Backward Bifurcation in a Cholera Model: A Case Study of Outbreak in Zimbabwe and Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sandeep; Kumari, Nitu

    In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when R0 cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when R0 > 1. The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study.

  19. A qualitative model for strategic analysis of organizations. Application and alternative proposal on a study case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Ferro Moreno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The strategic analysis of organizations is based on the internal and external environments, in order to identify positive and negative variables and factors. The interrelation and timing of these strategic forces are essential to create alternative solutions that tend to achieve the organizational objectives.The normative prospective has theorical and methodological foundations to create a desired future and from it, be able to identify impelling and restraining forces that have influence on the particular problematic situation (go from the current situation to a better one in a certain time.The aim of this article is to analyze on a strategic way a real case with a normative-prospective model that considers the temporal dynamics of the factors impact and variables in time allowing to suggest alternative solutions.Semi-structured interviews were performed with all the employees of this case and structured observations and workshops with the commercial and general management.In consequence, with the results, the desired, current and improved situations were built. Additionally, forces were identified classified and appreciated and lastly solutions were suggested. With the proposed prospective method, alternative solutions could be constructed in order to settle temporary organizational objectives. No constraints were found to use the current method in other cases.Keywords: Strategic forces, Normative prospective, Problematic situations, Strategies

  20. A Case Study: The Implementation of a Problem-Solving Model with a Student with Reading Difficulties in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozmen, E. Ruya; Doganay-Bilgi, Arzu

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this case study was to improve the reading accuracy and reading comprehension of a 10-year-old fourth-grade female student with reading difficulties. For that purpose, the problem- solving model was implemented in four stages. These stages included problem identification, problem analysis, intervention, and evaluation. During the…

  1. Modeling complex aquifer systems: a case study in Baton Rouge, Louisiana (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Hai V.; Tsai, Frank T.-C.

    2017-05-01

    This study targets two challenges in groundwater model development: grid generation and model calibration for aquifer systems that are fluvial in origin. Realistic hydrostratigraphy can be developed using a large quantity of well log data to capture the complexity of an aquifer system. However, generating valid groundwater model grids to be consistent with the complex hydrostratigraphy is non-trivial. Model calibration can also become intractable for groundwater models that intend to match the complex hydrostratigraphy. This study uses the Baton Rouge aquifer system, Louisiana (USA), to illustrate a technical need to cope with grid generation and model calibration issues. A grid generation technique is introduced based on indicator kriging to interpolate 583 wireline well logs in the Baton Rouge area to derive a hydrostratigraphic architecture with fine vertical discretization. Then, an upscaling procedure is developed to determine a groundwater model structure with 162 layers that captures facies geometry in the hydrostratigraphic architecture. To handle model calibration for such a large model, this study utilizes a derivative-free optimization method in parallel computing to complete parameter estimation in a few months. The constructed hydrostratigraphy indicates the Baton Rouge aquifer system is fluvial in origin. The calibration result indicates hydraulic conductivity for Miocene sands is higher than that for Pliocene to Holocene sands and indicates the Baton Rouge fault and the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault to be low-permeability leaky aquifers. The modeling result shows significantly low groundwater level in the "2,000-foot" sand due to heavy pumping, indicating potential groundwater upward flow from the "2,400-foot" sand.

  2. Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khademian, Amir; Abdollahipour, Hamed; Bagherpour, Raheb; Faramarzi, Lohrasb

    2017-10-01

    In addition to the numerous planning and executive challenges, underground excavation in urban areas is always followed by certain destructive effects especially on the ground surface; ground settlement is the most important of these effects for which estimation there exist different empirical, analytical and numerical methods. Since geotechnical models are associated with considerable model uncertainty, this study characterized the model uncertainty of settlement estimation models through a systematic comparison between model predictions and past performance data derived from instrumentation. To do so, the amount of surface settlement induced by excavation of the Qom subway tunnel was estimated via empirical (Peck), analytical (Loganathan and Poulos) and numerical (FDM) methods; the resulting maximum settlement value of each model were 1.86, 2.02 and 1.52 cm, respectively. The comparison of these predicted amounts with the actual data from instrumentation was employed to specify the uncertainty of each model. The numerical model outcomes, with a relative error of 3.8%, best matched the reality and the analytical method, with a relative error of 27.8%, yielded the highest level of model uncertainty.

  3. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  4. DOE ZERH Case Study: Charles Thomas Homes, Anna Model, Omaha, NE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2015-09-01

    Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in the cold climate that got a HERS 48 without PV, with 2x6 24” on center walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, ocsf at rim joists, basement with plus 2x4 stud walls with R-23 blown fiberglass, with R-20 around slab, R-38 under slab; a vented attic with R-100 blown cellulose; 95% AFUE furnace, 14 SEER AC, ERV; heat pump water heater.

  5. Tourism Village Model Based on Local Indigenous: Case Study of Nongkosawit Tourism Village, Gunungpati, Semarang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniasih; Nihayah, Dyah Maya; Sudibyo, Syafitri Amalia; Winda, Fajri Nur

    2018-02-01

    Officially, Nongkosawit Village has become a tourism village since 2012. However, the economic impact has not been received by the society yet because of inappropriate tourism village model. Therefore, this study aims to find out the best model for the development of Nongkosawit Tourism Village. This research used Analytical Hierarchy Process method. The results of this research shows that the model of tourism village which was suitable to the local indigenous of Nongkosawit Tourism Village was the cultural based tourism village with the percentage of 58%. Therefore, it is necessary to do re-orientation from the natural-based village model into the cultural-based village model by raising and exploring the existing culture through unique and different tourism products.

  6. The Traveling Optical Scanner – Case Study on 3D Shape Models of Ancient Brazilian Skulls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trinderup, Camilla Himmelstrup; Dahl, Vedrana Andersen; Gregersen, Kristian Murphy

    2016-01-01

    , inoffensive and inexpensive 3D scanning modality based on structured light, suitable for capturing the morphology and the appearance of specimens. Benefits of having 3D models are manifold. The 3D models are easy to share among researchers and can be made available to the general public. Advanced...... morphological modelling is possible with accurate description of the specimens provided by the models. Furthermore, performing studies on models reduces the risk of damage to the original specimen. In our work we employ a high resolution structured light scanner for digitalizing a collection of 8500 year old...... human skulls from Brazil. To evaluate the precision of our setup we compare the structured light scan to micro-CT and achieve submillimetre difference. We analyse morphological features of the Brazilian skulls using manual landmarks, but a research goal is to automate this, fully utilize the dense 3D...

  7. The role of production and teamwork practices in construction safety: a cognitive model and an empirical case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitropoulos, Panagiotis Takis; Cupido, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    In construction, the challenge for researchers and practitioners is to develop work systems (production processes and teams) that can achieve high productivity and high safety at the same time. However, construction accident causation models ignore the role of work practices and teamwork. This study investigates the mechanisms by which production and teamwork practices affect the likelihood of accidents. The paper synthesizes a new model for construction safety based on the cognitive perspective (Fuller's Task-Demand-Capability Interface model, 2005) and then presents an exploratory case study. The case study investigates and compares the work practices of two residential framing crews: a 'High Reliability Crew' (HRC)--that is, a crew with exceptional productivity and safety over several years, and an average performing crew from the same company. The model explains how the production and teamwork practices generate the work situations that workers face (the task demands) and affect the workers ability to cope (capabilities). The case study indicates that the work practices of the HRC directly influence the task demands and match them with the applied capabilities. These practices were guided by the 'principle' of avoiding errors and rework and included work planning and preparation, work distribution, managing the production pressures, and quality and behavior monitoring. The Task Demand-Capability model links construction research to a cognitive model of accident causation and provides a new way to conceptualize safety as an emergent property of the production practices and teamwork processes. The empirical evidence indicates that the crews' work practices and team processes strongly affect the task demands, the applied capabilities, and the match between demands and capabilities. The proposed model and the exploratory case study will guide further discovery of work practices and teamwork processes that can increase both productivity and safety in construction

  8. Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conoscenti, Christian; Rotigliano, Edoardo; Cama, Mariaelena; Caraballo-Arias, Nathalie Almaru; Lombardo, Luigi; Agnesi, Valerio

    2016-05-01

    A statistical approach was employed to model the spatial distribution of rainfall-triggered landslides in two areas in Sicily (Italy) that occurred during the winter of 2004-2005. The investigated areas are located within the Belice River basin and extend for 38.5 and 10.3 km2, respectively. A landslide inventory was established for both areas using two Google Earth images taken on October 25th 2004 and on March 18th 2005, to map slope failures activated or reactivated during this interval. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to prepare 5 m grids of the dependent variables (absence/presence of landslide) and independent variables (lithology and 13 DEM-derivatives). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were applied to model landslide susceptibility whereas receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance. To evaluate the robustness of the whole procedure, we prepared 10 different samples of positive (landslide presence) and negative (landslide absence) cases for each area. Absences were selected through two different methods: (i) extraction from randomly distributed circles with a diameter corresponding to the mean width of the landslide source areas; and (ii) selection as randomly distributed individual grid cells. A comparison was also made between the predictive performances of models including and not including the lithology parameter. The models trained and tested on the same area demonstrated excellent to outstanding fit (AUC > 0.8). On the other hand, predictive skill decreases when measured outside the calibration area, although most of the landslides occur where susceptibility is high and the overall model performance is acceptable (AUC > 0.7). The results also showed that the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models is higher when lithology is included in the statistical analysis. Models whose absences were selected using random circles showed a

  9. Fluid prediction using rock modelling and reconnaissance. AVO analysis - A case study from the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osdal, Bard; Granli, John Reidar

    1998-12-31

    Seismic lithology and fluid phase prediction (LFP) is becoming an important part of seismic interpretation, and can contribute significantly to risk reduction prior to drilling. In this presentation there is focused on quantitative interpretation of the amplitudes in a 2-D dataset, with respect to presence of hydrocarbons. Different aspect of the working producer, like data quality (well data and seismic data), rock modelling and seismic modelling will be illustrated. In the present study only one well has been used for calibration and to investigate the seismic response for different fluid and lithology scenarios. The rock modelling included evaluation of seismic parameter effect for different fluid and porosities. 1 ref., 4 figs.

  10. Modeling and simulation of queuing system for customer service improvement: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Tan Chai; Hong, Chai Weng; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

    2016-10-01

    This study aims to develop a queuing model at UniMall by using discrete event simulation approach in analyzing the service performance that affects customer satisfaction. The performance measures that considered in this model are such as the average time in system, the total number of student served, the number of student in waiting queue, the waiting time in queue as well as the maximum length of buffer. ARENA simulation software is used to develop a simulation model and the output is analyzed. Based on the analysis of output, it is recommended that management of UniMall consider introducing shifts and adding another payment counter in the morning.

  11. Flood modeling using WMS model for determining peak flood discharge in southwest Iran case study: Simili basin in Khuzestan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoseini, Yaser; Azari, Arash; Pilpayeh, Alireza

    2017-10-01

    It is of high importance to determine the flood discharge of different basins, in studies on water resources. However, it is necessary to use new models to determine flood hydrograph parameters. Therefore, it will be beneficial to conduct studies to calibrate the models, keeping in mind the local conditions of different regions. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the peak flood discharge of a basin located in Southwest Iran, using the TR-20, TR55, and HEC-1 methods of the WMS model (watershed modeling system). The obtained results were compared with empirical values, as well as those of the soil conservation service (SCS) approach. Based on the results obtained, the TR55 method of the WMS model recorded the highest agreement with empirical values in Southwest Iran.

  12. A shared frailty model for case-cohort samples: parent and offspring relations in an adoption study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Liselotte; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2010-01-01

    probability weighting to account for the sampling in a conditional, shared frailty Poisson model and to use the robust variance estimator proposed by Moger et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:1062-1074).To explore the performance of the estimation procedure, a simulation study was conducted. We studied situations...... of their biological and adoptive parents were collected with the purpose of studying the association of survival between the adoptee and his/her biological or adoptive parents. Motivated by this study, we explored how to make inference in a shared frailty model for case-cohort data. Our approach was to use inverse...

  13. A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei

    2017-05-05

    It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecasting models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.

  14. Bayesian latent class models with conditionally dependent diagnostic tests: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menten, Joris; Boelaert, Marleen; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2008-09-30

    In the assessment of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases, the true disease status of the subjects is often unknown due to the lack of a gold standard test. Latent class models with two latent classes, representing diseased and non-diseased subjects, are often used to analyze this type of data. In its basic format, latent class analysis requires the observed outcomes to be statistically independent conditional on the disease status. In most diagnostic settings, this assumption is highly questionable. During the last decade, several methods have been proposed to estimate latent class models with conditional dependence between the test results. A class of flexible fixed and random effects models were described by Dendukuri and Joseph in a Bayesian framework. We illustrate these models using the analysis of a diagnostic study of three field tests and an imperfect reference test for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis. We show that, as observed earlier by Albert and Dodd, different dependence models may result in similar fits to the data while resulting in different inferences. Given this problem, selection of appropriate latent class models should be based on substantive subject matter knowledge. If several clinically plausible models are supported by the data, a sensitivity analysis should be performed by describing the results obtained from different models and using different priors. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Predicting seizure by modeling synaptic plasticity based on EEG signals - a case study of inherited epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honghui; Su, Jianzhong; Wang, Qingyun; Liu, Yueming; Good, Levi; Pascual, Juan M.

    2018-03-01

    This paper explores the internal dynamical mechanisms of epileptic seizures through quantitative modeling based on full brain electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Our goal is to provide seizure prediction and facilitate treatment for epileptic patients. Motivated by an earlier mathematical model with incorporated synaptic plasticity, we studied the nonlinear dynamics of inherited seizures through a differential equation model. First, driven by a set of clinical inherited electroencephalogram data recorded from a patient with diagnosed Glucose Transporter Deficiency, we developed a dynamic seizure model on a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was reduced in complexity after considering and removing redundancy of each EEG channel. Then we verified that the proposed model produces qualitatively relevant behavior which matches the basic experimental observations of inherited seizure, including synchronization index and frequency. Meanwhile, the rationality of the connectivity structure hypothesis in the modeling process was verified. Further, through varying the threshold condition and excitation strength of synaptic plasticity, we elucidated the effect of synaptic plasticity to our seizure model. Results suggest that synaptic plasticity has great effect on the duration of seizure activities, which support the plausibility of therapeutic interventions for seizure control.

  16. Predicting seizure by modeling synaptic plasticity based on EEG signals - a case study of inherited epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honghui; Su, Jianzhong; Wang, Qingyun; Liu, Yueming; Good, Levi; Pascual, Juan

    2018-03-01

    This paper explores the internal dynamical mechanisms of epileptic seizures through quantitative modeling based on full brain electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Our goal is to provide seizure prediction and facilitate treatment for epileptic patients. Motivated by an earlier mathematical model with incorporated synaptic plasticity, we studied the nonlinear dynamics of inherited seizures through a differential equation model. First, driven by a set of clinical inherited electroencephalogram data recorded from a patient with diagnosed Glucose Transporter Deficiency, we developed a dynamic seizure model on a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was reduced in complexity after considering and removing redundancy of each EEG channel. Then we verified that the proposed model produces qualitatively relevant behavior which matches the basic experimental observations of inherited seizure, including synchronization index and frequency. Meanwhile, the rationality of the connectivity structure hypothesis in the modeling process was verified. Further, through varying the threshold condition and excitation strength of synaptic plasticity, we elucidated the effect of synaptic plasticity to our seizure model. Results suggest that synaptic plasticity has great effect on the duration of seizure activities, which support the plausibility of therapeutic interventions for seizure control.

  17. Physiologically Based Absorption Modeling to Impact Biopharmaceutics and Formulation Strategies in Drug Development-Industry Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesisoglou, Filippos; Chung, John; van Asperen, Judith; Heimbach, Tycho

    2016-09-01

    In recent years, there has been a significant increase in use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models in drug development and regulatory applications. Although most of the published examples have focused on aspects such as first-in-human (FIH) dose predictions or drug-drug interactions, several publications have highlighted the application of these models in the biopharmaceutics field and their use to inform formulation development. In this report, we present 5 case studies of use of such models in this biopharmaceutics/formulation space across different pharmaceutical companies. The case studies cover different aspects of biopharmaceutics or formulation questions including (1) prediction of absorption prior to FIH studies; (2) optimization of formulation and dissolution method post-FIH data; (3) early exploration of a modified-release formulation; (4) addressing bridging questions for late-stage formulation changes; and (5) prediction of pharmacokinetics in the fed state for a Biopharmaceutics Classification System class I drug with fasted state data. The discussion of the case studies focuses on how such models can facilitate decisions and biopharmaceutic understanding of drug candidates and the opportunities for increased use and acceptance of such models in drug development and regulatory interactions. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Presenting Enterprise Architecture Strategies Using Business Model Canvas (Case Study of E-commerce PT Xyz)

    OpenAIRE

    Christini, Chintamy; Rahmad, Basuki

    2015-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) is known as enabler of business. One of the study that align business and IT is enterprise architecture. In this era, one of the business that become a trend the world is electronic commerce (e-commerce). With the suitable enterprise architecture strategies, e-commerce can be improved according to the business and IT condition. This paper represents about study case of an Indonesian e-commerce website which is still unknown by internet users and the SWOT strategy a...

  19. Mathematical modelling with case studies a differential equations approach using Maple and Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, B

    2011-01-01

    ""The book is written in a very lucid manner, with numerous case studies and examples thoroughly discussed. The material is very well organized, generously illustrated, and delightfully presented. All chapters, except the first one, conclude with scores of nicely designed exercises that can be used for independent study. The book contains enough material to organize a new well-structured one-semester course or to complement the existing one with additional examples and problems and is highly recommended for either purpose""-Zentralblatt MATH, 1168""… The book can be useful for students of math

  20. Landslide susceptibility modeling applying machine learning methods: A case study from Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Li, Yuanyao; Catani, Filippo; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2018-03-01

    Landslide is a common natural hazard and responsible for extensive damage and losses in mountainous areas. In this study, Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study for landslide susceptibility assessment in order to develop effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies. To begin, 202 landslides were identified, including 95 colluvial landslides and 107 rockfalls. Twelve landslide causal factor maps were prepared initially, and the relationship between these factors and each landslide type was analyzed using the information value model. Later, the unimportant factors were selected and eliminated using the information gain ratio technique. The landslide locations were randomly divided into two groups: 70% for training and 30% for verifying. Two machine learning models: the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), and a multivariate statistical model: the logistic regression (LR), were applied for landslide susceptibility modeling (LSM) for each type. The LSM index maps, obtained from combining the assessment results of the two landslide types, were classified into five levels. The performance of the LSMs was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curve and Friedman test. Results show that the elimination of noise-generating factors and the separated modeling of each landslide type have significantly increased the prediction accuracy. The machine learning models outperformed the multivariate statistical model and SVM model was found ideal for the case study area.

  1. Case study research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Ruth; Thomas-Gregory, Annette

    2015-06-10

    This article describes case study research for nursing and healthcare practice. Case study research offers the researcher an approach by which a phenomenon can be investigated from multiple perspectives within a bounded context, allowing the researcher to provide a 'thick' description of the phenomenon. Although case study research is a flexible approach for the investigation of complex nursing and healthcare issues, it has methodological challenges, often associated with the multiple methods used in individual studies. These are explored through examples of case study research carried out in practice and education settings. An overview of what constitutes 'good' case study research is proposed.

  2. Designing a Model for Knowledge Socialization Using Sociability Processes of Human Resource Management: A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Rezaei, K.; Babaei, M.

    2017-01-01

    This study develops a model for knowledge socialization using sociability processes of human resources through an applied research approach. Two types of participants participated in this study. The first type included academic and industrial experts; the second type included employees and managers of Ansar Bank. Ten experts were asked to identify criteria and weigh the identified criteria. Using simple random sampling, the sample size was estimated at 207. Field and archival studies were use...

  3. Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Jeffrey C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; McKenna, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed

  4. Modelling earthquake location errors at a reservoir scale: a case study in the Upper Rhine Graben

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnaert, X.; Gaucher, E.; Achauer, U.; Kohl, T.

    2016-08-01

    Earthquake absolute location errors which can be encountered in an underground reservoir are investigated. In such an exploitation context, earthquake hypocentre errors can have an impact on the field development and economic consequences. The approach using the state-of-the-art techniques covers both the location uncertainty and the location inaccuracy—or bias—problematics. It consists, first, in creating a 3-D synthetic seismic cloud of events in the reservoir and calculating the seismic traveltimes to a monitoring network assuming certain propagation conditions. In a second phase, the earthquakes are relocated with assumptions different from the initial conditions. Finally, the initial and relocated hypocentres are compared. As a result, location errors driven by the seismic onset time picking uncertainties and inaccuracies are quantified in 3-D. Effects induced by erroneous assumptions associated with the velocity model are also modelled. In particular, 1-D velocity model uncertainties, a local 3-D perturbation of the velocity and a 3-D geostructural model are considered. The present approach is applied to the site of Rittershoffen (Alsace, France), which is one of the deep geothermal fields existing in the Upper Rhine Graben. This example allows setting realistic scenarios based on the knowledge of the site. In that case, the zone of interest, monitored by an existing seismic network, ranges between 1 and 5 km depth in a radius of 2 km around a geothermal well. Well log data provided a reference 1-D velocity model used for the synthetic earthquake relocation. The 3-D analysis highlights the role played by the seismic network coverage and the velocity model in the amplitude and orientation of the location uncertainties and inaccuracies at subsurface levels. The location errors are neither isotropic nor aleatoric in the zone of interest. This suggests that although location inaccuracies may be smaller than location uncertainties, both quantities can have a

  5. Comparing Dutch Case management care models for people with dementia and their caregivers: The design of the COMPAS study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacNeil Vroomen Janet

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dementia care in the Netherlands is shifting from fragmented, ad hoc care to more coordinated and personalised care. Case management contributes to this shift. The linkage model and a combination of intensive case management and joint agency care models were selected based on their emerging prominence in the Netherlands. It is unclear if these different forms of case management are more effective than usual care in improving or preserving the functioning and well-being at the patient and caregiver level and at the societal cost. The objective of this article is to describe the design of a study comparing these two case management care models against usual care. Clinical and cost outcomes are investigated while care processes and the facilitators and barriers for implementation of these models are considered. Design Mixed methods include a prospective, observational, controlled, cohort study among persons with dementia and their primary informal caregiver in regions of the Netherlands with and without case management including a qualitative process evaluation. Inclusion criteria for the cohort study are: community-dwelling individuals with a dementia diagnosis who are not terminally-ill or anticipate admission to a nursing home within 6 months and with an informal caregiver who speaks fluent Dutch. Person with dementia-informal caregiver dyads are followed for two years. The primary outcome measure is the Neuropsychiatric Inventory for the people with dementia and the General Health Questionnaire for their caregivers. Secondary outcomes include: quality of life and needs assessment in both persons with dementia and caregivers, activity of daily living, competence of care, and number of crises. Costs are measured from a societal perspective using cost diaries. Process indicators measure the quality of care from the participant’s perspective. The qualitative study uses purposive sampling methods to ensure a wide variation of

  6. The Energy Services Company (ESCo) as business model for heat entrepreneurship-A case study of North Karelia, Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suhonen, Niko; Okkonen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    Energy Services Companies are widely implemented for improving energy efficiency both in the public sector and industry. The model has also been introduced as a business model for biomass-based heat entrepreneurship. However, the residential sector has been problematic with regard to ESCo adoption and constitutes a minor share of ESCo operations. The barriers, both social and economic, are many. This paper focuses on the application of ESCo as a business model for heat entrepreneurship in Finland. First, we present the ESCo model and a review of the main barriers. Second, we present the modelling with aspects of profitability and risk sharing. Third, we demonstrate the operation in the residential sector by using 26 housing associations as a case study. We simulate the energy investment, profitability of operation, and the sharing of risks between the customer and the ESCo. The results indicate that the ESCo model is challenging in our case area. Low profit levels and the assumed customer's preference for achieving cost savings from the beginning of energy renovation can result in long contract periods tying up the capital. The ESCo model is unattractive in the current business climate, requiring modifications or integration with other maintenance services of housing associations. - Highlights: • We simulate the ESCo business model in a challenging sector of residential heating services. • We provide a detailed and replicable method for ESCo business modelling. • Simulation and conclusions stimulate further ESCo business model development

  7. Modeling light entangled in polarization and frequency: case study in quantum cryptography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, John M.

    2005-08-01

    With the recognition of a logical gap between experiments and equations of quantum mechanics comes: (1) a chance to clarify such purely mathematical entities as probabilities, density operators, and partial traces-separated out from the choices and judgments necessary to apply them to describing experiments with devices, and (2) an added freedom to invent equations by which to model devices, stemming from the corresponding freedom in interpreting how these equations connect to experiments. Here I apply a few of these clarifications and freedoms to model polarization-entangled light pulses called for in quantum key distribution (QKD). Available light pulses are entangled not only in polarization but also in frequency. Although absent from the simplified models that initiated QKD, the degree of frequency entanglement of polarization-entangled light pulses is shown to affect the amount of key that can be distilled from raw light signals, in one case by a factor of 4/3. Open questions remain, because QKD brings concepts of quantum decision theory, such as measures of distinguishability, mostly worked out in the context of finite-dimensional vector spaces, into contact with infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces needed to give expression to optical frequency spectra.

  8. Remote Sensing Data in Wind Velocity Field Modelling: a Case Study from the Sudetes (SW Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jancewicz, Kacper

    2014-06-01

    The phenomena of wind-field deformation above complex (mountainous) terrain is a popular subject of research related to numerical modelling using GIS techniques. This type of modelling requires, as input data, information on terrain roughness and a digital terrain/elevation model. This information may be provided by remote sensing data. Consequently, its accuracy and spatial resolution may affect the results of modelling. This paper represents an attempt to conduct wind-field modelling in the area of the Śnieżnik Massif (Eastern Sudetes). The modelling process was conducted in WindStation 2.0.10 software (using the computable fluid dynamics solver Canyon). Two different elevation models were used: the Global Land Survey Digital Elevation Model (GLS DEM) and Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) Level 2. The terrain roughness raster was generated on the basis of Corine Land Cover 2006 (CLC 2006) data. The output data were post-processed in ArcInfo 9.3.1 software to achieve a high-quality cartographic presentation. Experimental modelling was conducted for situations from 26 November 2011, 25 May 2012, and 26 May 2012, based on a limited number of field measurements and using parameters of the atmosphere boundary layer derived from the aerological surveys provided by the closest meteorological stations. The model was run in a 100-m and 250-m spatial resolution. In order to verify the model's performance, leave-one-out cross-validation was used. The calculated indices allowed for a comparison with results of former studies pertaining to WindStation's performance. The experiment demonstrated very subtle differences between results in using DTED or GLS DEM elevation data. Additionally, CLC 2006 roughness data provided more noticeable improvements in the model's performance, but only in the resolution corresponding to the original roughness data. The best input data configuration resulted in the following mean values of error measure: root mean squared error of velocity

  9. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  10. Modeling the operational risk in Iranian commercial banks: case study of a private bank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momen, Omid; Kimiagari, Alimohammad; Noorbakhsh, Eaman

    2012-08-01

    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision from the Bank for International Settlement classifies banking risks into three main categories including credit risk, market risk, and operational risk. The focus of this study is on the operational risk measurement in Iranian banks. Therefore, issues arising when trying to implement operational risk models in Iran are discussed, and then, some solutions are recommended. Moreover, all steps of operational risk measurement based on Loss Distribution Approach with Iran's specific modifications are presented. We employed the approach of this study to model the operational risk of an Iranian private bank. The results are quite reasonable, comparing the scale of bank and other risk categories.

  11. NOx trade. Case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jantzen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Some of the questions with respect to the trade of nitrogen oxides that businesses in the Netherlands have to deal with are dealt with: should a business buy or sell rights for NOx emission; which measures must be taken to reduce NOx emission; how much must be invested; and how to deal with uncertainties with regard to prices. Simulations were carried out with the MOSES model to find the answers to those questions. Results of some case studies are presented, focusing on the chemical sector in the Netherlands. Finally, the financial (dis)advantages of NOx trade and the related uncertainties for a single enterprise are discussed [nl

  12. Evaluation of Al-Najaf Hospital Intersection Performance Using Simulation model: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Athab Eedan Al-Jameel

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Traffic congestion is a widely spreading problem through the world. It is mainly observed around intersections in urban areas. In this study, Al-Najaf Hospital (Ibn Blal intersection has been evaluated because it is considered the congested T-intersection on Kufa-Nafa road. This T-intersection suffers from high congestion especially in the morning peak. This could be due to a lot of centers of activities (trip generation and attractive on that road such as University of Kufa, four hospitals and other facilities. Although the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2000 suffers from several shortcomings and limitations, it is used widely in the evaluation of intersections in Iraq. On the other hand, simulation models have been proved to be accurate tools in the evaluation of intersections. Therefore, a simulation model (S-Paramics model has been used to assess the performance of the current intersection. Then, the simulation model was calibrated with field data. Data was collected from the intersection using video camera installing over Al-Najaf Hospital building. The results of this study show that the developed model clearly mimics the reality. Then, different alternatives have been implemented using the developed model. Consequently, the construction of an overpass coming from Najaf-Kufa road towards Al-Sahlaa road is the best alternative with protecting U-turn.

  13. Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model: A case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhuanglin; Zhang, Honglu; Chien, Steven I-Jy; Wang, Jin; Dong, Chunjiao

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between crash frequency and potential influence factors, the accident data for events occurring on a 50km long expressway in China, including 567 crash records (2006-2008), were collected and analyzed. Both the fixed-length and the homogeneous longitudinal grade methods were applied to divide the study expressway section into segments. A negative binomial (NB) model and a random effect negative binomial (RENB) model were developed to predict crash frequency. The parameters of both models were determined using the maximum likelihood (ML) method, and the mixed stepwise procedure was applied to examine the significance of explanatory variables. Three explanatory variables, including longitudinal grade, road width, and ratio of longitudinal grade and curve radius (RGR), were found as significantly affecting crash frequency. The marginal effects of significant explanatory variables to the crash frequency were analyzed. The model performance was determined by the relative prediction error and the cumulative standardized residual. The results show that the RENB model outperforms the NB model. It was also found that the model performance with the fixed-length segment method is superior to that with the homogeneous longitudinal grade segment method. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  15. Simulation Modelling Approach to Human Resources Management: Burnout Effect Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Merkac Skok

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Human resources management has become one of the most important leverages in organizations for gaining competitive advantage. However, human resources management is in many occasions prone to nonlinear feedbacks with delayed effect. Burnout effect is one of the problems that are especially often faced by the experts in learning society. Burnout effect occurs because modern society is a fast-moving, achievement-oriented, very competitive and lead to many stressful situations, which individuals cannot handle always. We propose usage of system dynamics methodology in exploration of burnout effect, and its usage in learning of consequences of burnout effect. Several experiments have been conducted and presented which indicate increase and collapse behaviour in case of burnout experience by the individual. Experiments with the model explore the presence of burnout effect in several different situations, with different pace of its manifestations.

  16. Competing With the Use of Business Model innovation - an Exploratory Case Study of the Journey of Born Global Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene Johansson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.

  17. Groundwater flow model management and case studies in Emilia-Romagna (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chahoud

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of groundwater modeling to support the planning and management of water resources is a possible goal of a long and detailed course of study and research. The present work concerns some applications carried out within the aquifers of the Emilia-Romagna plain in northern Italy. The main features of the developed and available mathematical models are reported as well as the geological and hydrogeological description of the analyzed aquifers. The main operational choices that have characterized the implementation of all models and their continuous development and updating are discussed. Activity has been focused to maintain active the data stream between the models to improve their functionality along with time to give a basis for models management. Models have been used in different applications which indicate the potential for their use with targeted objectives of planning and management. Two examples at two different scales are given: the first shows the application to the entire aquifer of the Emilia-Romagna region, which has been able to adapt simulations to new groundwater bodies defined in accordance with 2000/60/EC directive, the current regulatory framework for the planning of water resources. This framework provides for the establishment of programs of measures whose level of effectiveness can be estimated with the support of models. The second concerns a more detailed scale model in reference to a specific evaluation of feasibility of an intervention of artificial recharge. The management approach used here is the result of over 10 years development and application and now allows to apply numerical models in a role of systematic service in support of the institutions involved in planning and management of groundwater resources.

  18. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-01-01

    Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management

  19. A mathematical model for process cycle time - theory and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Tošenovský

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on derivation of a regression model which describes dependence of process cycle time on relevant factors entering the process. The analyzed processes are typical in that the coefficient of variation of times corresponding to a given level of influential factors remains stable if the level of the factors change. The derived model is subsequently applied to real industrial data which show that such a model is suitable for the description of relations. The paper has been published with support of Slovak Ministry of Education project KEGA 3/6411/08 „Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to an university-wide bilingual study programme“.

  20. A STUDY ON DEFENSE ACQUISITION MODELS WITH AN EMERGING MARKET PERSPECTIVE. THE CASE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Kemal Topcu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With the end of the Cold War, the static environment, characteristic of the bipolar world, has changed quickly into a dynamic and complicated environment with new actors. These changes have also affected the countries’ armed forces and new approaches to procurement/acquisition come into progress. After the Cold War, countries have focused on responding to changing threats with their decreasing defense budgets. In this study, acquisition models and their effects on Turkey’s technology acquisition and defense industry are evaluated. The evaluation is performed based on criteria such as contribution to national economy, customization, acquisition cost, time and risk, life cycle cost, and technology acquisition. Major acquisition models in this study are determined as direct procurement, production under license, joint venture, indigenous development, production via international consortium. Finally, it is observed that the best model is indigenous development while the others will serve as technology acquisition for indigenous development.

  1. Global sensitivity analysis for complex ecological models: a case study of riparian cottonwood population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Stella, John C; Fremier, Alexander K

    2011-06-01

    Mechanism-based ecological models are a valuable tool for understanding the drivers of complex ecological systems and for making informed resource-management decisions. However, inaccurate conclusions can be drawn from models with a large degree of uncertainty around multiple parameter estimates if uncertainty is ignored. This is especially true in nonlinear systems with multiple interacting variables. We addressed these issues for a mechanism-based, demographic model of Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood), the dominant riparian tree species along southwestern U.S. rivers. Many cottonwood populations have declined following widespread floodplain conversion and flow regulation. As a result, accurate predictive models are needed to analyze effects of future climate change and water management decisions. To quantify effects of parameter uncertainty, we developed an analytical approach that combines global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with classification and regression trees (CART) and Random Forest, a bootstrapping CART method. We used GSA to quantify the interacting effects of the full range of uncertainty around all parameter estimates, Random Forest to rank parameters according to their total effect on model predictions, and CART to identify higher-order interactions. GSA simulations yielded a wide range of predictions, including annual germination frequency of 10-100%, annual first-year survival frequency of 0-50%, and patch occupancy of 0-100%. This variance was explained primarily by complex interactions among abiotic parameters including capillary fringe height, stage-discharge relationship, and floodplain accretion rate, which interacted with biotic factors to affect survival. Model precision was primarily influenced by well-studied parameter estimates with minimal associated uncertainty and was virtually unaffected by parameter estimates for which there are no available empirical data and thus a large degree of uncertainty. Therefore, research to improve

  2. A model of destination image promotion with a case study of Nanjing, P. R. China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang Li; Hans Vogelsong

    2003-01-01

    Destination image has long been a popular research topic in tourism studies. However, methods used to integrate image in real marketing practice and evaluating the market performance in a systematic way are still puzzling to practitioners. A destination image promotion model is proposed in this paper as an effort to solve the problem. The roles of some major factors...

  3. Stuttering Intervention in Three Service Delivery Models (Direct, Hybrid, and Telepractice): Two Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    VALENTINE, DANIEL T.

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed outcomes in stuttering intervention across three service delivery models: direct, hybrid, and telepractice for two 11-year old children who stutter. The goal of the study was to investigate whether short-term goals were maintained through the telepractice sessions. The Stuttering Severity Instrument, Fourth Edition (SSI-4) was administered to each child before and after each intervention period and weekly fluency samples (percentage of stuttered syllables in a monologue) w...

  4. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

  5. Open innovation models - a case study of playing poker with chess pieces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goduscheit, René Chester; Jørgensen, Jacob Høj; Bergenholtz, Carsten

    2010-01-01

    these organizational challenges. On the basis of an in-depth case study of a project within the Danish energy sector, two prominent approaches within the open innovation paradigm, user-driven and network-based innovation, are discussed. The analysis shows how the re-orientation from a closed to an open innovation...... mindset constitutes a significant managerial challenge. The paper identifies two overall barriers in the re-orientation: the ability to understand and the willingness to employ the open innovation approaches....

  6. An Electromyographic-driven Musculoskeletal Torque Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System Identification: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Zohreh; Edrisi, Mehdi; Marateb, Hamid Reza

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the torque from high-density surface electromyography signals of biceps brachii, brachioradialis, and the medial and lateral heads of triceps brachii muscles during moderate-to-high isometric elbow flexion-extension. The elbow torque was estimated in two following steps: First, surface electromyography (EMG) amplitudes were estimated using principal component analysis, and then a fuzzy model was proposed to illustrate the relationship between the EMG amplitudes and the measured torque signal. A neuro-fuzzy method, with which the optimum number of rules could be estimated, was used to identify the model with suitable complexity. Utilizing the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, the clinical interpretability was introduced; contrary to the previous linear and nonlinear black-box system identification models. It also reduced the estimation error compared with that of the most recent and accurate nonlinear dynamic model introduced in the literature. The optimum number of the rules for all trials was 4 ± 1, that might be related to motor control strategies and the % variance accounted for criterion was 96.40 ± 3.38 which in fact showed considerable improvement compared with the previous methods. The proposed method is thus a promising new tool for EMG-Torque modeling in clinical applications. PMID:25426427

  7. Hydraulic modeling of flow impact on bridge structures: a case study on Citarum bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    Flood waves because of the rapid catchment response to high intense rainfall, breaches of flood defenses may induce huge impact forces on structures, causing structural damage or even failures. Overflowing stream that passes over the bridge, it means to discharge flood water level is smaller than the capacity of the river flow. In this study, the researches present the methodological approach of flood modeling on bridge structures. The amount of force that obtained because of the hydrostatic pressure received by the bridge at the time of the flood caused the bridge structure disrupted. This paper presents simulation of flow impact on bridge structures with some event flood conditions. Estimating the hydrostatic pressure developed new model components, to quantify the flow impact on structures. Flow parameters applied the model for analyzing, such as discharge, velocity, and water level or head that effect of bridge structures. The simulation will illustrate the capability of bridge structures with some event flood river and observe the behavior of the flow that occurred during the flood. Hydraulic flood modeling use HEC-RAS for simulation. This modeling will describe the impact on bridge structures. Based on the above modelling resulted, in 2008 has flood effect more than other years on the Citarum Bridge, because its flow overflow on the bridge.

  8. Sustainable tourism and harmonious culture: a case study of cultic model at village tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astawa, I. P.; Triyuni, N. N.; Santosa, I. D. M. C.

    2018-01-01

    The research aims to analyze an event model of Culture and Tourism International Camp (Cultic) from two aspects, harmonious culture and sustainable tourism. Currently, Indonesian government promotes village tourism by involving more villagers to achieve village independence in its development. The program has faced various obstacles, such as the eroded local cultures due to the development of a massive and money-oriented tourism with less attention on the environmental damage. One of the offered programs is a green tourism model for an event named Culture and Tourism International Camps - Cultic. The research is conducted in several stages. The first stage is the development of model based on the theoretical study. The second stage is the implementation of the model with 85 participants. The third stage is the evaluation of the model through harmonious culture and sustainable tourism approaches. The data is collected through a direct observation and a questionnaire. The result of qualitative analysis indicates that the developed event model supports the harmonious culture, especially the natural environment. Whereas, the result of quantitative analysis indicates that the participants enjoy the activities, such as green food, material natural, waste management, and ecosystem. Another finding is that the community strongly supports the concept of sustainable tourism.

  9. Use of Fixed Effects Models to Analyze Self-Controlled Case Series Data in Vaccine Safety Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Stanley; Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia; Nelson, Jennifer; Glanz, Jason

    2012-04-19

    Conditional Poisson models have been used to analyze vaccine safety data from self-controlled case series (SCCS) design. In this paper, we derived the likelihood function of fixed effects models in analyzing SCCS data and showed that the likelihoods from fixed effects models and conditional Poisson models were proportional. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of time-varying variables including vaccination effect from fixed effects model and conditional Poisson model were equal. We performed a simulation study to compare empirical type I errors, means and standard errors of vaccination effect coefficient, and empirical powers among conditional Poisson models, fixed effects models, and generalized estimating equations (GEE), which has been commonly used for analyzing longitudinal data. Simulation study showed that both fixed effect models and conditional Poisson models generated the same estimates and standard errors for time-varying variables while GEE approach produced different results for some data sets. We also analyzed SCCS data from a vaccine safety study examining the association between measles mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). In analyzing MMR-ITP data, likelihood-based statistical tests were employed to test the impact of time-invariant variable on vaccination effect. In addition a complex semi-parametric model was fitted by simply treating unique event days as indicator variables in the fixed effects model. We conclude that theoretically fixed effects models provide identical MLEs as conditional Poisson models. Because fixed effect models are likelihood based, they have potentials to address methodological issues in vaccine safety studies such as how to identify optimal risk window and how to analyze SCCS data with misclassification of adverse events.

  10. Modeling Spatial Effect in Residential Burglary: A Case Study from ZG City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianguo Chen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between burglary and socio-demographic factors has long been a hot topic in crime research. Spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity are two issues to be addressed in modeling geographic data. When these two issues arise at the same time, it is difficult to model them simultaneously. A cross-comparison of three models is presented in this study to identify which spatial effect should be addressed first in crime analysis. The negative binominal model (NB, Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM and the geographically weighted Poisson regression model (GWPR were implemented based on a three-year residential burglary data set from ZG, China. The modeling result shows that both BHM and GWPR outperform NB as they capture either of the spatial effects. Compared to the NB model, the mean absolute deviation (MAD of BHM and GWPR was decreased by 83.71% and 49.39%, the mean squared error (MSE of BHM and GWPR was decreased by 97.88% and 77.15%, and the R d 2 of BHM and GWPR was improved by 26.7% and 19.1%, respectively. In comparison with BHM and GWPR, BHM fits the data better with lower MAD, MSE and higher R d 2 . The empirical analysis indicates that the percentage of renter population, percentage of people from other provinces, bus line density, and bus stop density have a significantly positive impact on the number of residential burglaries. The percentage of residents with a bachelor degree or higher, on the other hand, is negatively associated with the number of residential burglaries.

  11. Succinate overproduction: A case study of computational strain design using a comprehensive Escherichia coli kinetic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali eKhodayari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational strain design prediction accuracy has been the focus for many recent efforts through the selective integration of kinetic information into metabolic models. In general, kinetic model prediction quality is determined by the range and scope of genetic and/or environmental perturbations used during parameterization. In this effort, we apply the k-OptForce procedure on a kinetic model of E. coli core metabolism constructed using the Ensemble Modeling (EM method and parameterized using multiple mutant strains data under aerobic respiration with glucose as the carbon source. Minimal interventions are identified that improve succinate yield under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions to test the fidelity of model predictions under both genetic and environmental perturbations. Under aerobic condition, k-OptForce identifies interventions that match existing experimental strategies pointing at a number of unexplored flux redirections such as routing glyoxylate flux through the glycerate metabolism to improve succinate yield. Many of the identified interventions rely on the kinetic descriptions and would not be discoverable by a purely stoichiometric description. In contrast, under fermentative (anaerobic conditions, k-OptForce fails to identify key interventions including up-regulation of anaplerotic reactions and elimination of competitive fermentative products. This is due to the fact that the pathways activated under anaerobic conditions were not properly parameterized as only aerobic flux data were used in the model construction. This study shed light on the importance of condition-specific model parameterization and provides insight onto how to augment kinetic models so as to correctly respond to multiple environmental perturbations.

  12. Model for determining logistic distribution center: case study of Mount Merapi eruption disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, T. J.; Wigati, S. S.

    2017-01-01

    As one of the most active volcano in the earth, Mount Merapi is periodically erupted and it is considered as a natural disaster for the surrounding area. Kabupaten Sleman as one of the nearest location to this mount has to be always prepared to this disaster. The local government already set three different groups of region, in which potentially affected by Mount Merapi eruption, called KRB I, KRB II, and KRB III. Region KRB III is the closest area to the mount crater and most often affected by the eruption disaster. Whenever KRB III is affected, people live in that area usually being transfer to the next region set that is KRB II. The case presented in this paper is located at the KRB II region, which is the second closest region to the mount crater. A humanitarian distribution system has to be set in this region, since usually this region is became the location of shelters for KRB III population whenever a ‘big’ eruption is happened. A mathematical model is proposed in this paper, for determining the location of distribution center, vehicle route, and the amount of goods delivered to each customer. Some numerical illustration are presented in order to know the behavior of the proposed model.

  13. Pricing model for biodiesel feedstock: A case study of Chhattisgarh in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohit, Sanjib; Biswas, Pradip Kumar; Kumar, Rajesh; Goswami, Anandajit

    2010-01-01

    Following the global trend, India declared its biofuel policy in which biodiesel, primarily from jatropha, would meet 20% of the diesel demand beginning with 2011-2012. To promote biofuel, Indian government has announced biodiesel purchase price as well as compulsory blending ratio. But, these measures have not worked to create large scale biodiesel production in India. With this backdrop, this paper highlights about the importance of a sound pricing policy focusing on the entire value chain of biodiesel production. The analysis is based on field level data from Chhattisgarh, the leading state in the production of jatropha. Such a sound pricing policy has to deal with the prices of feedstock, by-products and final product like biodiesel. It would also have to reflect on the business model of production of biodiesel. The simulation exercises in our model shows that the business returns from the production of biodiesel and the minimum support price (MSP) of the feedstock for biodiesel (i.e. jatropha seeds in this case) are sensitive to various parameters like seed yields, technological efficiency, by product and petro-diesel prices. An effective price policy framework has to consider all these factors to create a platform for sustainable biodiesel production in India. - Research highlights: → India's biodiesel program began way back in 2003. → Success is limited. → Effective policy frame is missing. → Paper proposed to address the same with field level observation.

  14. Designing a Model for Knowledge Socialization Using Sociability Processes of Human Resource Management: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rezaei

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a model for knowledge socialization using sociability processes of human resources through an applied research approach. Two types of participants participated in this study. The first type included academic and industrial experts; the second type included employees and managers of Ansar Bank. Ten experts were asked to identify criteria and weigh the identified criteria. Using simple random sampling, the sample size was estimated at 207. Field and archival studies were used to collect data. Validity and reliability of the distributed questionnaire were confirmed by organizational experts. Using theoretical literature and surveying experts, 18 criteria were identified of which 12 criteria (desirable and joyful workplace, management and leadership support in sociability process, training courses, transparency in working relations, team work, organizational trustful climate, job description and job knowledge, tangible incentives, participatory system, informal technique, defined career path, individual values aligned with organizational value were selected by screening for prioritization and analysis. Fuzzy AHP and structural equation modelling based on partial least squares were used for prioritization and weighting. Fuzzy AHP model showed that desirable workplace (0.163, participatory systems and brainstorming (0.149, transparency in working relations (0.114, and informal techniques (0.111 gained the highest weights; finally, PLS model showed that all 12 identified criteria were effective on socialization of knowledge management.

  15. A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

    2017-10-01

    Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring

  16. Quantifying and Validating Rapid Floodplain Geomorphic Evolution, a Monitoring and Modelling Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R.; Entwistle, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Gravel bed rivers and their associated wider systems present an ideal subject for development and improvement of rapid monitoring tools, with features dynamic enough to evolve within relatively short-term timescales. For detecting and quantifying topographical evolution, UAV based remote sensing has manifested as a reliable, low cost, and accurate means of topographic data collection. Here we present some validated methodologies for detection of geomorphic change at resolutions down to 0.05 m, building on the work of Wheaton et al. (2009) and Milan et al. (2007), to generate mesh based and pointcloud comparison data to produce a reliable picture of topographic evolution. Results are presented for the River Glen, Northumberland, UK. Recent channel avulsion and floodplain interaction, resulting in damage to flood defence structures make this site a particularly suitable case for application of geomorphic change detection methods, with the UAV platform at its centre. We compare multi-temporal, high-resolution point clouds derived from SfM processing, cross referenced with aerial LiDAR data, over a 1.5 km reach of the watercourse. Changes detected included bank erosion, bar and splay deposition, vegetation stripping and incipient channel avulsion. Utilisation of the topographic data for numerical modelling, carried out using CAESAR-Lisflood predicted the avulsion of the main channel, resulting in erosion of and potentially complete circumvention of original channel and flood levees. A subsequent UAV survey highlighted topographic change and reconfiguration of the local sedimentary conveyor as we predicted with preliminary modelling. The combined monitoring and modelling approach has allowed probable future geomorphic configurations to be predicted permitting more informed implementation of channel and floodplain management strategies.png" class="documentimage" >

  17. Traveling magnetospheric convection twin vortices: Another case study, global characteristics, and a model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glassmeier, K.H.; Heppner, C.

    1992-01-01

    A case study of a transient geomagnetic field variation event associated with a traveling magnetospheric convection twin vortex is presented. The characteristics of this event are different from those of other presented cases, as the sense of rotation of the associated ionospheric current system is reversed, that is, it exhibits upward (downward) field-aligned currents in the tailward (dayside) part of the vortex structure. In particular, a clear tailward motion at high latitudes can be deduced from local as well as global magnetic field observations. At low dayside latitudes, magnetic field variations similar to sudden impulse (SI) variations are recorded. Almost simultaneous onset and no westward propagation are observed, too. As possible source mechanisms of such transient events, localized magnetic field reconnection as well as pressure pulses at the dayside magnetopause are discussed. If the switch-on of magnetic reconnection can be regarded as equivalent to an equivalent current flowing against the existing magnetopause current and if this countercurrent is spatially localized, an Alfven wave is generated with downward (upward) field-aligned current flow in the tailward (dayside) par of the wave, as observed for some of the reported transients. However, the SI-like behavior of the event studied in this paper, its reversed sense of rotation, and the vortex associated field-aligned current density excludes such localized magnetic reconnection as a possible source mechanism and argues in favor of the existence of pressure pulses at the magnetopause

  18. Using dynamically downscaled GCM outputs in hydrological models: a case study from Tasmania, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, J.; Grose, M.; Ling, F.; Corney, S.; Holz, G.; White, C.; Graham, B.; Post, D.; Bindoff, N.

    2010-09-01

    Modelling future runoff by running meteorological projections from global climate models (GCMs) directly through hydrological models presents considerable technical challenges, but promises several advantages over the so-called ‘perturbation method'. The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has projected water yield in Tasmania, Australia to 2100. This paper describes how the Climate Futures for Tasmania project used dynamically downscaled climate projections directly in hydrological models to produce useable information for water managers and industry. Tasmania is a difficult region for climate change hydrology studies. Tasmanian rainfall is generated by complex regional weather systems such as atmospheric blocking that are not always well-represented in GCM-scale projections. Further, the spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse to represent the complex distribution of Tasmanian rainfall. Rainfall changes caused by changes in these regional weather systems may not be predicted by GCMs. Previous studies of climate change impacts on Tasmanian rivers have used the ‘perturbation method', where historical rainfall and evaporation data are modified to reflect changes predicted by GCMs. In this method rainfall events occur exactly as often as in the historical record - only the magnitude of events changes. This can mask long-term effects on runoff caused by changes in the timing or duration of rainfall events due to climate change. We avoided this problem by dynamically downscaling six GCMs with the regional climate model CCAM to a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Dynamical downscaling is computing-intensive, but can simulate changes to rain-bearing weather systems (e.g. increases in convective storms). Downscaled hindcasts generally showed excellent spatial and temporal agreement with climate observations. However, some spatial biases were still evident. To account for these biases, modelled rainfall and evaporation were bias

  19. STUDENT-DEFINED QUALITY BY KANO MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF ENGINEERING STUDENTS IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Wilson Taifa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Engineering Students in India like elsewhere worldwide need well designed classrooms furniture which can enable them to attend lectures without negative impact in the long run. Engineering students from India have not yet been involved in suggesting their requirements for improving the mostly out-dated furniture at their colleges. Among the available improvement techniques, Kano Model is one of the most effective improvement approaches. The main objective of the study was to identify and categorise all the main attributes regarding the classrooms furniture for the purpose of increasing student satisfaction in the long run. Kano Model has been well applied to make an exhaustive list of requirements for redesigning classroom furniture. Cronbach Alpha was computed with the help of SPSS 16.0 for validation purpose and it ranged between 0.8 and 0.9 which is a good internal consistency. Further research can be done by integrating Kano Model with Quality Function Deployment.

  20. Econometrics Models for Copper Recovery: A Case Study of North Waziristan-Copper Deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Khan, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Fourteen econometrics models have been developed to evaluate the effects of various flotation process variables like, Propyl xanthate (X/sub 1/g/tonne), pH (X/sub 2/,) Sodium Cyanide (X/sub 3/ g/tonne), Sodium sulphide (X/sub 4/ g/tonne), Frother (X/sub 5/ g/tonne), Pulp density (X/sub 6/ w/vol), and Conditioning time (X/sub 7/ minute) on the copper recovery YR North Waziristan-NWFP Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square OLS method has been applied as an analytical technique for regression analysis. It has been concluded in this study that model given in equation 7 is best model among all. This equation shows that with the increase of one unit of X/sub 1/, Y/sub R/ will increase 0.05 units keeping all other variables constant. (author)

  1. Analyzing Phylogenetic Trees with Timed and Probabilistic Model Checking: The Lactose Persistence Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Requeno José Ignacio

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Model checking is a generic verification technique that allows the phylogeneticist to focus on models and specifications instead of on implementation issues. Phylogenetic trees are considered as transition systems over which we interrogate phylogenetic questions written as formulas of temporal logic. Nonetheless, standard logics become insufficient for certain practices of phylogenetic analysis since they do not allow the inclusion of explicit time and probabilities. The aim of this paper is to extend the application of model checking techniques beyond qualitative phylogenetic properties and adapt the existing logical extensions and tools to the field of phylogeny. The introduction of time and probabilities in phylogenetic specifications is motivated by the study of a real example: the analysis of the ratio of lactose intolerance in some populations and the date of appearance of this phenotype.

  2. Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Duner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare.Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations.Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

  3. Development of a railway wagon-track interaction model: Case studies on excited tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Chen, Xianmai; Li, Xuwei; He, Xianglin

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a theoretical framework for modeling the railway wagon-ballast track interactions is presented, in which the dynamic equations of motion of wagon-track systems are constructed by effectively coupling the linear and nonlinear dynamic characteristics of system components. For the linear components, the energy-variational principle is directly used to derive their dynamic matrices, while for the nonlinear components, the dynamic equilibrium method is implemented to deduce the load vectors, based on which a novel railway wagon-ballast track interaction model is developed, and being validated by comparing with the experimental data measured from a heavy haul railway and another advanced model. With this study, extensive contributions in figuring out the critical speed of instability, limits and localizations of track irregularities over derailment accidents are presented by effectively integrating the dynamic simulation model, the track irregularity probabilistic model and time-frequency analysis method. The proposed approaches can provide crucial information to guarantee the running safety and stability of the wagon-track system when considering track geometries and various running speeds.

  4. Modeling the Financial Distress of Microenterprise StartUps Using Support Vector Machines: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Blanco-Oliver

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the leading role that micro-entrepreneurship plays in economic development, and the high failure rate of microenterprise start-ups in their early years, very few studies have designed financial distress models to detect the financial problems of micro-entrepreneurs. Moreover, due to a lack of research, nothing is known about whether non-financial information and nonparametric statistical techniques improve the predictive capacity of these models. Therefore, this paper provides an innovative financial distress model specifically designed for microenterprise startups via support vector machines (SVMs that employs financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic variables. Based on a sample of almost 5,500 micro- entrepreneurs from a Peruvian Microfinance Institution (MFI, our findings show that the introduction of non-financial information related to the zone in which the entrepreneurs live and situate their business, the duration of the MFI-entrepreneur relationship, the number of loans granted by the MFI in the last year, the loan destination, and the opinion of experts on the probability that microenterprise start-ups may experience financial problems, significantly increases the accuracy performance of our financial distress model. Furthermore, the results reveal that the models that use SVMs outperform those which employ traditional logistic regression (LR analysis.

  5. Modelling of asphaltene precipitation in well column of Iranian crudes : Kuapl case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soulgani, B.S.; Rashtchian, D. [Sharif Univ. of Technology, Tehran, (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tohidi, B. [Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh, (United Kingdom). Inst. of Petroleum Engineering; Jamialahmadi, M. [Petroleum Univ. of Technology, Abadan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2008-07-01

    Asphaltene precipitation and deposition can result in the partial or total blockage of wellbores during heavy oil recovery processes. This paper provided details of a thermodynamic model of asphaltene precipitation. The model was combined with temperature and pressure models of wellbores at an oilfield in Iran and used to predict the depth of asphaltene precipitation in the wellbores in several oilfields. Bottom hole samples were taken in order to analyze asphaltene levels. The heaviest fractions were split into components with different interaction coefficients. Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS) was used to determine critical pressures, temperatures, molecular weights, and volume shift parameters for the heavy fractions. The asphaltene precipitation model was matched to results obtained during the experimental tests. A general kinetic deposition model was developed to calculate asphaltene deposition rates within a wellstring. Sensitivity analyses were then conducted to examine the influence of flow rates, wellhead pressure, and tubing diameter. The study showed that asphaltene precipitation in the wellstring occurs in windows limited by asphaltene flocculation onset pressures and cross points of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic conditions. It was concluded that asphaltene precipitation can be controlled by changing the operational conditions to reduce the amounts and intervals of asphaltene precipitation. 23 refs., 2 tabs., 10 figs.

  6. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  7. Seismic wave propagation modeling in porous media for various frequencies: A case study in carbonate rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhandoko, Bagus Endar B.; Wardaya, Pongga Dikdya; Adler, John; Siahaan, Kisko R.

    2012-06-01

    Seismic wave parameter plays very important role to characterize reservoir properties whereas pore parameter is one of the most important parameter of reservoir. Therefore, wave propagation phenomena in pore media is important to be studied. By referring this study, in-direct pore measurement method based on seismic wave propagation can be developed. Porosity play important role in reservoir, because the porosity can be as compartment of fluid. Many type of porosity like primary as well as secondary porosity. Carbonate rock consist many type of porosity, i.e.: inter granular porosity, moldic porosity and also fracture porosity. The complexity of pore type in carbonate rocks make the wave propagation in these rocks is more complex than sand reservoir. We have studied numerically wave propagation in carbonate rock by finite difference modeling in time-space domain. The medium of wave propagation was modeled by base on the result of pattern recognition using artificial neural network. The image of thin slice of carbonate rock is then translated into the velocity matrix. Each mineral contents including pore of thin slice image are translated to velocity since mineral has unique velocity. After matrix velocity model has been developed, the seismic wave is propagated numerically in this model. The phenomena diffraction is clearly shown while wave propagates in this complex carbonate medium. The seismic wave is modeled in various frequencies. The result shows dispersive phenomena where high frequency wave tends to propagate in matrix instead pores. In the other hand, the low frequency waves tend to propagate through pore space even though the velocity of pore is very low. Therefore, this dispersive phenomena of seismic wave propagation can be the future indirect measurement technology for predicting the existence or intensity of pore space in reservoir rock. It will be very useful for the future reservoir characterization.

  8. Modeling accessibility of community facilities using GIS: case study of Depok City, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herika Muhamad Taki

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Improving community accessibility based on transport connectivity helps to address equity issues. Geographical information systems (GIS provide useful techniques for capturing, maintaining and analyzing spatial data to defining community issues. The objective of this study is to model accessibility of community facilities using GIS based on private car, bus and train in the city area of Depok, Indonesia. The study modeling the accessibility of community facilities using Geographical information systems (GIS. A geodatabase of community facilities that includes the location of the mall, schools, hospital, mosque, and lake and also supporting data such as street and road network, the number of population, density and land use. The geodatabase covers defining community facilities and modeling accessibility by car, by bus, and by train and analyzing the social pattern. The results obtained from the spatial pattern of accessibility based on the different modes of transportation using the method of network analysis and buffering operations underlines the existence of different patterns. Car transport mode is a commonly accessible mode of community-related to land use interpretation and social issues. The conclusion is that there are differences in the spatial models at the city level in terms of the use of transportation accessibility

  9. PIO I-II tendencies case study. Part 1. Mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian TOADER

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, a study is performed from the perspective of giving a method to reduce the conservatism of the well known PIO (Pilot-Induced Oscillation criteria in predicting the susceptibility of an aircraft to this very harmful phenomenon. There are three interacting components of a PIO – the pilot, the vehicle, and the trigger (in fact, the hazard. The study, conceived in two parts, aims to underline the importance of human pilot model involved in analysis. In this first part, it is shown, following classical sources, how the LQG theory of control and estimation is used to obtain a complex model of human pilot. The approach is based on the argument, experimentally proved, that the human behaves “optimally” in some sense, subject to his inherent psychophysical limitations. The validation of such model is accomplished based on the experimental model of a VTOL-type aircraft. Then, the procedure of inserting typical saturation nonlinearities in the open loop transfer function is presented. A second part of the paper will illustrate PIO tendencies evaluation by means of a grapho-analytic method.

  10. Urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 in prediction mode - evaluation of model performance based on the case study of Vienna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollosi, Brigitta; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja

    2017-04-01

    To reduce negative health impacts of extreme heat load in urban areas is the application of early warning systems that use weather forecast models to predict forthcoming heat events of utmost importance. In the state-of-the-art operational heat warning systems the meteorological information relies on the weather forecast from the regional numerical models and monitoring stations that do not include details of urban structure. In this study, the dynamical urban climate model MUKLIMO3 (horizontal resolution of 100 - 200 m) is initialized with the vertical profiles from the archived daily forecast data of the ZAMG from the hydrostatic ALARO numerical weather prediction model run at 0600 UTC to simulate the development of the urban heat island in Vienna on a daily basis. The aim is to evaluate the performance of the urban climate model, so far applied only for climatological studies, in a weather prediction mode using the summer period 2011-2015 as a test period. The focus of the investigation is on assessment of the urban heat load during the day-time. The model output has been evaluated against the monitoring data at the weather stations in the area of the city. The model results for daily maximum temperature show good agreement with the observations, especially at the urban and suburban stations where the mean bias is low. The results are highly dependent on the input data from the meso-scale model that leads to larger deviation from observations if the prediction is not representative for the given day. This study can be used to support urban planning strategies and to improve existing practices to alert decision-makers and the public to impending dangers of excessive heat.

  11. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: a case study on Lena River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, André; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A R; Vilar, Vítor J P

    2014-07-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km(2) watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between -26% and 23% for calibration and -30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  13. A combined disease management and process modeling approach for assessing and improving care processes: a fall management case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Marjan; Westerhof, Richard; Eslami, Saied; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-10-01

    To propose a combined disease management and process modeling approach for evaluating and improving care processes, and demonstrate its usability and usefulness in a real-world fall management case study. We identified essential disease management related concepts and mapped them into explicit questions meant to expose areas for improvement in the respective care processes. We applied the disease management oriented questions to a process model of a comprehensive real world fall prevention and treatment program covering primary and secondary care. We relied on interviews and observations to complete the process models, which were captured in UML activity diagrams. A preliminary evaluation of the usability of our approach by gauging the experience of the modeler and an external validator was conducted, and the usefulness of the method was evaluated by gathering feedback from stakeholders at an invitational conference of 75 attendees. The process model of the fall management program was organized around the clinical tasks of case finding, risk profiling, decision making, coordination and interventions. Applying the disease management questions to the process models exposed weaknesses in the process including: absence of program ownership, under-detection of falls in primary care, and lack of efficient communication among stakeholders due to missing awareness about other stakeholders' workflow. The modelers experienced the approach as usable and the attendees of the invitational conference found the analysis results to be valid. The proposed disease management view of process modeling was usable and useful for systematically identifying areas of improvement in a fall management program. Although specifically applied to fall management, we believe our case study is characteristic of various disease management settings, suggesting the wider applicability of the approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Reconstructing exposures from biomarkers using exposure-pharmacokinetic modeling--A case study with carbaryl.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kathleen; Phillips, Martin; Grulke, Christopher; Yoon, Miyoung; Young, Bruce; McDougall, Robin; Leonard, Jeremy; Lu, Jingtao; Lefew, William; Tan, Yu-Mei

    2015-12-01

    Sources of uncertainty involved in exposure reconstruction for short half-life chemicals were characterized using computational models that link external exposures to biomarkers. Using carbaryl as an example, an exposure model, the Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System (CARES), was used to generate time-concentration profiles for 500 virtual individuals exposed to carbaryl. These exposure profiles were used as inputs into a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict urinary biomarker concentrations. These matching dietary intake levels and biomarker concentrations were used to (1) compare three reverse dosimetry approaches based on their ability to predict the central tendency of the intake dose distribution; and (2) identify parameters necessary for a more accurate exposure reconstruction. This study illustrates the trade-offs between using non-iterative reverse dosimetry methods that are fast, less precise and iterative methods that are slow, more precise. This study also intimates the necessity of including urine flow rate and elapsed time between last dose and urine sampling as part of the biomarker sampling collection for better interpretation of urinary biomarker data of short biological half-life chemicals. Resolution of these critical data gaps can allow exposure reconstruction methods to better predict population-level intake doses from large biomonitoring studies. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  16. Detection and Modeling of Temperature Inversion in the Atmosphere Using Modis Images (case Study: Kermanshah)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachar, H.; Mobasheri, M. R.; Abkar, A. A.; Rahim Zadegan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Increase of temperature with height in the troposphere is called temperature inversion. Parameters such as strength and depth are characteristics of temperature inversion. Inversion strength is defined as the temperature difference between the surface and the top of the inversion and the depth of inversion is defined as the height of the inversion from the surface. The common approach in determination of these parameters is the use of Radiosonde where these measurements are too sparse. The main objective of this study is detection and modeling the temperature inversion using MODIS thermal infrared data. There are more than 180 days per year in which the temperature inversion conditions are present in Kermanshah city. Kermanshah weather station was selected as the study area. 90 inversion days was selected from 2007 to 2008 where the sky was clear and the Radiosonde data were available. Brightness temperature for all thermal infrared bands of MODIS was calculated for these days. Brightness temperature difference between any of the thermal infrared bands of MODIS and band 31 was found to be sensitive to strength and depth of temperature inversion. Then correlation coefficients between these pairs and the inversion depth and strength both calculated from Radiosonde were evaluated. The results showed poor linear correlation. This was found to be due to the change of the atmospheric water vapor content and the relatively weak temperature inversion strength and depth occurring in Kermanshah. The polynomial mathematical models and Artificial intelligence algorithms were deployed for detection and modeling the temperature inversion. A model with the lowest terms and highest possible accuracy was obtained. The Model was tested using 20 independent test data. Results indicate that the inversion strength can be estimated with RMSE of 0.84° C and R2 of 0.90. Also inversion depth can be estimated with RMSE of 54.56 m and R2 of 0.86.

  17. Promoting Profit Model Innovation in Animation Project in Northeast Asia: Case Study on Chinese Cultural and Creative Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Jiao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Building on a case study of three animation companies in the Chinese cultural and creative industry, this study aims to understand how profit model innovation is promoted. Due to the rapidly changing environments and resource scarcity, cultural and creative companies need to select the appropriate profit model according to their own key resources. The study uncovers two critical factors that promote profit model innovation in animation projects: the quantity of consumers and their consumption intention. According to these two dimensions, the authors’ analysis shows profit model innovation in animation projects can be divided into Fans mode, Popular mode, Placement mode, and Failure mode, respectively. This study provides an empirical basis for advocating profit model innovation and discusses the resource requirements of Fan mode, Popular model, and Placement mode in China’s cultural and creative industry. The authors’ research also has managerial implications that might help firms promote profit model innovation. Finally, learning and promoting the profit model of China’s animation industry in the Northeast Asia area will be conducive to Northeast Asia’s cooperation and sustainable development.

  18. Economic analysis and optimal energy management models for microgrid systems: A case study in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yen-Haw; Lu, Su-Ying; Chang, Yung-Ruei; Lee, Ta-Tung; Hu, Ming-Che

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► An optimization model of energy supply in microgrid system is formulated. ► Optimal energy management strategies are determined. ► Sensitivity analyses of storage capacity and energy demand is performed. -- Abstract: The purpose of this research is to perform economic analysis, formulate an optimization model, and determine optimal operating strategies for smart microgrid systems. Microgrid systems are electricity supply systems that integrate distributed renewable energy production for local demand. Microgrids are able to reduce transmission losses and improve utilization efficiency of electricity and heat. Further, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by utilizing an efficient power generation microgrid system. This study presents an energy management model that is used to determine optimal operating strategies with maximum profit for a microgrid system in Taiwan. The smart microgrid system is equipped with energy storage devices, photovoltaic power, and wind power generation systems. Sensitivity analyses of investment in storage capacity and growth in electricity demand are conducted for the smart microgrid model. The results show that appropriate battery capacity should be determined on the basis of both battery efficiency and power supply.

  19. A supply chain model to improve the beef quality distribution using investment analysis: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupita, Alessandra; Rangkuti, Sabrina Heriza; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

    2017-11-01

    There are significant differences related to the quality and price of the beef commodity in traditional market and modern market in Indonesia. Those are caused by very different treatments of the commodity. The different treatments are in the slaughter lines, the transportation from the abattoir to the outlet, the display system, and the control system. If the problem is not solved by the Government, the gap will result a great loss of the consumer regarding to the quality and sustainability of traditional traders business because of the declining interest in purchasing beef in the traditional markets. This article aims to improve the quality of beef in traditional markets. This study proposed A Supply Chain Model that involves the schemes of investment and government incentive for improving the distribution system. The supply chain model is can be formulated using the Mix Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and solved using the IBM®ILOG®CPLEX software. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs for improving the quality and sustainability business of traditional beef merchants. By using the models, The Government can make a decision to consider incentives for improving the condition.

  20. The academic merits of modelling in higher mathematics education: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrenet, Jacob; Adan, Ivo

    2010-09-01

    Modelling is an important subject in the Bachelor curriculum of Applied Mathematics at Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands. Students not only learn how to apply their knowledge to solve mathematical problems posed in non-mathematical language, but also they learn to look actively for, or even construct, mathematical knowledge useful for the problem at hand. A detailed analysis of the academic profile of the curriculum is presented, using a framework of competencies and dimensions, developed at this university by the project, Academic Competencies and Quality Assurance (ACQA). The profile is constructed from the perspective of teachers' ambitions. The research question for the present study is: Are there certain academic characteristics typical for the Modelling Track compared to the characteristics of the other courses in the Eindhoven Bachelor curriculum of Applied Mathematics? The analysis shows that the modelling projects are essential for the development of the designing competencies in the curriculum. Other courses in the curriculum are more intended to develop abstraction capabilities. These results provide supporting arguments for the realistic approach chosen for mathematical modelling education.

  1. Macro-Level Modeling of Urban Transportation Safety: Case-Study of Mashhad (Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadi Mehdi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Transportation safety can be aimed at the planning stage in order to adopt safety management and evaluate the long-time policies. The main objective of this research was to make use of crash prediction models in urban transportation planning process. As such, it was attempted to gather data on the results of transportation master plan as well as Mashhad urban crash database. Two modelling method, generalized linear model with negative binomial distribution and geographically weighted regression, were considered as the methods used in this research. Trip variables, including trip by car, trip by bus, trip by bus services and trip by school services, were significant at 95%. The results indicated that both finalized models were competent in predicting urban crashes in Mashhad. Regarding to results urban transportation safety will be improved by changing the modal share for example from private car to bus. The application of the process presented in this study can improve the urban transportation safety management processes and lead to more accurate prediction in terms of crashes across urban traffic areas.

  2. An Object Model for Integrating Diverse Remote Sensing Satellite Sensors: A Case Study of Union Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuli Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Earth Observation sensor web environment, the rapid, accurate, and unified discovery of diverse remote sensing satellite sensors, and their association to yield an integrated solution for a comprehensive response to specific emergency tasks pose considerable challenges. In this study, we propose a remote sensing satellite sensor object model, based on the object-oriented paradigm and the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Model Language. The proposed model comprises a set of sensor resource objects. Each object consists of identification, state of resource attribute, and resource method. We implement the proposed attribute state description by applying it to different remote sensors. A real application, involving the observation of floods at the Yangtze River in China, is undertaken. Results indicate that the sensor inquirer can accurately discover qualified satellite sensors in an accurate and unified manner. By implementing the proposed union operation among the retrieved sensors, the inquirer can further determine how the selected sensors can collaboratively complete a specific observation requirement. Therefore, the proposed model provides a reliable foundation for sharing and integrating multiple remote sensing satellite sensors and their observations.

  3. Modelling metabolic evolution on phenotypic fitness landscapes: a case study on C4 photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckmann, David

    2015-12-01

    How did the complex metabolic systems we observe today evolve through adaptive evolution? The fitness landscape is the theoretical framework to answer this question. Since experimental data on natural fitness landscapes is scarce, computational models are a valuable tool to predict landscape topologies and evolutionary trajectories. Careful assumptions about the genetic and phenotypic features of the system under study can simplify the design of such models significantly. The analysis of C4 photosynthesis evolution provides an example for accurate predictions based on the phenotypic fitness landscape of a complex metabolic trait. The C4 pathway evolved multiple times from the ancestral C3 pathway and models predict a smooth 'Mount Fuji' landscape accordingly. The modelled phenotypic landscape implies evolutionary trajectories that agree with data on modern intermediate species, indicating that evolution can be predicted based on the phenotypic fitness landscape. Future directions will have to include structural changes of metabolic fitness landscape structure with changing environments. This will not only answer important evolutionary questions about reversibility of metabolic traits, but also suggest strategies to increase crop yields by engineering the C4 pathway into C3 plants. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

  4. A new binary model for university examination timetabling: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komijan, Alireza Rashidi; Koupaei, Mehrdad Nouri

    2012-12-01

    Examination timetabling problem (ETP) is one of the most important issues in universities. An improper timetable may result in students' dissatisfaction as it may not let them study enough between two sequential exams. In addition, the many exams to be scheduled, the large number of students who have taken different courses, the limited number of rooms, and some constraints such as no conflict in a single student's exams make it very difficult to schedule experimentally. A mathematical programming model is required to formulate such a sophisticated problem. In this paper, a new binary model is developed for ETP. The novelty of the paper can be discussed in two directions. The first one is that a course can be offered more than once in a semester. If a course is requested by a few students, then it is enough to be offered once. If the number of students requesting a course is more than the maximum number of students who are allowed to attend a single class, then the course is multi-offered. The second novelty is that sharing a room for two simultaneous exams is allowed. Also, the model considers some hard and soft constraints, and the objective function is set in such a way that soft constraints are satisfied as much as possible. Finally, the model is applied in a sample department and is solved by GAMS.

  5. Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

    2018-03-01

    Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

  6. A Novel Approach for Assessing the Performance of Sustainable Urbanization Based on Structural Equation Modeling: A China Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liudan Jiao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The rapid urbanization process has brought problems to China, such as traffic congestion, air pollution, water pollution and resources scarcity. Sustainable urbanization is commonly appreciated as an effective way to promote the sustainable development. The proper understanding of the sustainable urbanization performance is critical to provide governments with support in making urban development strategies and policies for guiding the sustainable development. This paper utilizes the method of Structural equation modeling (SEM to establish an assessment model for measuring sustainable urbanization performance. Four unobserved endogenous variables, economic variable, social variable, environment variable and resource variable, and 21 observed endogenous variables comprise the SEM model. A case study of the 31 provinces in China demonstrates the validity of the SEM model and the analysis results indicated that the assessment model could help make more effective policies and strategies for improving urban sustainability by recognizing the statue of sustainable urbanization.

  7. Interception of values as a result of the business model restructuring – case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nogalski Bogdan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a case of value interception as a result of restructuring the business model of a manufacturing company that operates in the agricultural machinery sector. A company that focuses on core activities in the value chain and commissions the manufacturing of most components to specialised suppliers – as a result of restructuring – becomes an integrator that controls all parts of the supply chain; from obtaining a raw material, through its own production of a possibly large number of components, to the distribution of a finished composite product. The framework of the conducted research featured the identification of the relationships occurring between own production of components comprising a given product, and an alternative solution, i.e. possibility of acquiring them by way of co-operation. The authors assumed that a derivative of the value intercepted in the finished product implementation process is the number of components manufactured using own production resources.

  8. Fuzzy Continuous Review Inventory Model using ABC Multi-Criteria Classification Approach: A Single Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriastuti - Ginting

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Inventory is considered as the most expensive, yet important,to any companies. It representsapproximately 50% of the total investment. Inventory cost has become one of the majorcontributorsto inefficiency, therefore it should be managed effectively. This study aims to propose an alternative inventory model, by using ABC multi-criteria classification approach to minimize total cost. By combining FANP (Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and TOPSIS (Technique of Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution, the ABC multi-criteria classification approach identified 12 items of 69 inventory items as “outstanding important class” that contributed to 80% total inventory cost. This finding is then used as the basis to determine the proposed continuous review inventory model.This study found that by using fuzzy trapezoidal cost, the inventory turnover ratio can be increased, and inventory cost can be decreased by 78% for each item in “class A” inventory. Keywords:ABC multi-criteria classification, FANP-TOPSIS, continuous review inventory model lead-time demand distribution, trapezoidal fuzzy number

  9. Fuzzy Continuous Review Inventory Model using ABC Multi-Criteria Classification Approach: A Single Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriastuti - Ginting

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Inventory is considered as the most expensive, yet important,to any companies. It representsapproximately 50% of the total investment. Inventory cost has become one of the majorcontributorsto inefficiency, therefore it should be managed effectively. This study aims to propose an alternative inventory model,  by using ABC multi-criteria classification approach to minimize total cost. By combining FANP (Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and TOPSIS (Technique of Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution, the ABC multi-criteria classification approach identified 12 items of 69 inventory items as “outstanding important class” that contributed to 80% total inventory cost. This finding  is then used as the basis to determine the proposed continuous review inventory model.This study found that by using fuzzy trapezoidal cost, the inventory  turnover ratio can be increased, and inventory cost can be decreased by 78% for each item in “class A” inventory.Keywords:ABC multi-criteria classification, FANP-TOPSIS, continuous review inventory model lead-time demand distribution, trapezoidal fuzzy number 

  10. User Friendly Open GIS Tool for Large Scale Data Assimilation - a Case Study of Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, P. K.

    2012-08-01

    Open source software (OSS) coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc...) and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.). Quantum GIS (QGIS) is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn - Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect), landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

  11. Discontinuum Modelling Approach for Stress Analysis at a Seismic Source: Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainoki, Atsushi; Mitri, Hani S.; Yao, Mike; Chinnasane, Damodara

    2016-12-01

    Rockbursts in underground mines can cause devastating damage to mine workings; hence, it is important to be able to assess the potential for their occurrence. The present study focuses on a large seismic event that took place at an underground base metal mine in Canada. The event took place in a dyke near the 100/900 orebodies on 3880 Level (1180 m below surface) of the Copper Cliff Mine in Sudbury, Canada. A 3D continuum stress analysis of the orebodies, i.e., 100 and 900, using an orebody-wide model encompassing the major geological structures and in situ stress heterogeneity in the mine shows low potential for rockburst at the seismic source location—a result which contradicts the fact that a large seismic event actually took place. A postulation is thus made that there had been highly stressed regions caused by geological disturbances at the source location before mining activities took place. In order to verify the postulation, a further study is undertaken with the discrete element modelling technique, whereby a cube-shaped model containing a fracture network is subjected to a stress state similar to that at the source location. A model parametrical study is conducted with respect to the distribution of the fracture (joint) network and its mechanical properties. The results reveal that when joints are densely distributed at the source location, the stress state becomes significantly burst prone. It is observed that the length, density, stiffness, and orientation of joints have a large influence on the stress state along the joints, while the friction angle, cohesion, and tensile strength do not influence the stress state. A cube-shaped model is constructed with joint sets actually mapped at the mine and a stress analysis is performed. The results demonstrate the generation of highly stressed regions due to the interaction of the joints with the applied in situ stress fields, thus leading to burst-prone conditions. The present study numerically confirms that

  12. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: A case study on Lena River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonseca, André; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A.R.; Vilar, Vítor J.P.

    2014-01-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km 2 watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between − 26% and 23% for calibration and − 30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms. - Highlights: • An integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management is presented. • An insight into the pollution

  13. Integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management: A case study on Lena River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, André, E-mail: andrerd@gmail.com; Botelho, Cidália; Boaventura, Rui A.R.; Vilar, Vítor J.P., E-mail: vilar@fe.up.pt

    2014-07-01

    The Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges on the water quality of a Lis River tributary (Lena River), a 176 km{sup 2} watershed in Leiria region, Portugal. The model parameters obtained in this study, could potentially serve as reference values for the calibration of other watersheds in the area or with similar climatic characteristics, which don't have enough data for calibration. Water quality constituents modeled in this study included temperature, fecal coliforms, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, nitrates, orthophosphates and pH. The results were found to be close to the average observed values for all parameters studied for both calibration and validation periods with percent bias values between − 26% and 23% for calibration and − 30% and 51% for validation for all parameters, with fecal coliforms showing the highest deviation. The model revealed a poor water quality in Lena River for the entire simulation period, according to the Council Directive concerning the surface water quality intended for drinking water abstraction in the Member States (75/440/EEC). Fecal coliforms, orthophosphates and nitrates were found to be 99, 82 and 46% above the limit established in the Directive. HSPF was used to predict the impact of point and nonpoint pollution sources on the water quality of Lena River. Winter and summer scenarios were also addressed to evaluate water quality in high and low flow conditions. A maximum daily load was calculated to determine the reduction needed to comply with the Council Directive 75/440/EEC. The study showed that Lena River is fairly polluted calling for awareness at behavioral change of waste management in order to prevent the escalation of these effects with especially attention to fecal coliforms. - Highlights: • An integrated hydrological and water quality model for river management is presented. • An insight into the

  14. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  15. Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Hui; Karen Shum; Ji Chen; Shyh-Chin Chen; Jack Ritchie; John Roads

    2007-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–...

  16. An empirical survey on perceived value from tourism destination based on brand equity model: A case study of Qeshm Island

    OpenAIRE

    Vahid Qaemi

    2012-01-01

    Tourism destination brand equity is defined as all assets (or debts) of brands provided with name and symbol of tourism destination to make changes in value services of experiences. In many cases, brand equity is more than physical assets. This survey performs an investigation to identify effective factors in tourism destination equity, cause and affects relationships, and proposes a model for perceived value of tourism destination. The proposed study is performed in one of free islands named...

  17. Personalized Information Management by Online Stores in 4C Model. Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kubicka Anna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing complexity of the business environment, growing knowledge requirements, development of information technologies, and competitiveness implies the need of implementation of information management systems. Moreover, welter of information about online customers, their individual behavior, and their expectations force entrepreneurs to manage information in a personalized way. Monitoring Internet users behavior, creating their profiles (based on data about age, sex, lifestyle, interests, family, work, etc., and controlling current traffic on the Web site give wide range of possibilities in creating a real model of potential customers preference and using it in online communication. This study concentrates on possibilities of using personalized communication in the information management by online stores in 4C model.

  18. Bayesian network modeling: A case study of an epidemiologic system analysis of cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster-Parra, P; Tauler, P; Bennasar-Veny, M; Ligęza, A; López-González, A A; Aguiló, A

    2016-04-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) seems to be of crucial importance in the research of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in order to prevent (or reduce) the chance of developing or dying from CVD. The main focus of data analysis is on the use of models able to discover and understand the relationships between different CVRF. In this paper a report on applying Bayesian network (BN) modeling to discover the relationships among thirteen relevant epidemiological features of heart age domain in order to analyze cardiovascular lost years (CVLY), cardiovascular risk score (CVRS), and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is presented. Furthermore, the induced BN was used to make inference taking into account three reasoning patterns: causal reasoning, evidential reasoning, and intercausal reasoning. Application of BN tools has led to discovery of several direct and indirect relationships between different CVRF. The BN analysis showed several interesting results, among them: CVLY was highly influenced by smoking being the group of men the one with highest risk in CVLY; MetS was highly influence by physical activity (PA) being again the group of men the one with highest risk in MetS, and smoking did not show any influence. BNs produce an intuitive, transparent, graphical representation of the relationships between different CVRF. The ability of BNs to predict new scenarios when hypothetical information is introduced makes BN modeling an Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool of special interest in epidemiological studies. As CVD is multifactorial the use of BNs seems to be an adequate modeling tool. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Learning nursing through simulation: A case study approach towards an expansive model of learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berragan, Liz

    2014-08-01

    This study explores the impact of simulation upon learning for undergraduate nursing students. The study objectives were (a) to explore the experiences of participating in simulation education for a small group of student nurses; and (b) to explore learning through simulation from the perspectives of the nursing students, the nurse educators and the nurse mentors. Conducted as a small-scale narrative case study, it tells the unique stories of a small number of undergraduate nursing students, nurse mentors and nurse educators and explores their experiences of learning through simulation. Data analysis through progressive focusing revealed that the nurse educators viewed simulation as a means of helping students to learn to be nurses, whilst, the nurse mentors suggested that simulation helped them to determine nursing potential. The students' narratives showed that they approached simulation learning in different ways resulting in a range of outcomes: those who were successfully becoming nurses, those who were struggling or working hard to become nurses and those who were not becoming nurses. Theories of professional practice learning and activity theory present an opportunity to articulate and theorise the learning inherent in simulation activities. They recognise the links between learning and the environment of work and highlight the possibilities for learning to inspire change and innovation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. PCM energy storage modelling: Case study for a solar-ejector cooling cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allouche, Yosr

    The work described in this PhD Thesis focuses on the post-processing of optical fibers and their enhancement as sensing element. Since the majority of sensors presented are based in Fabry-Perot interferometers, an historical overview of this category of optical fiber sensors is firstly presented. This review considers the works published since the early years, in the beginning of the 1980s, until the middle of 2015. The incorporation of microcavities at the tip of a single mode fiber was extensively studied, particularly for the measurement of nitrogen and methane gas pressure. These cavities were fabricated using hollow core silica tubes and a hollow core photonic crystal fiber. Following a different approach, the microcavities were incorporated between two sections of single mode fiber. In this case, the low sensitivity to temperature makes these microcavities highly desirable for the measurement of strain at high temperatures. Competences in post-processing techniques such as the chemical etching and the writing of periodical structures in the fiber core by means of an excimer or a femtosecond laser were also acquired in the course of the PhD programme. One of the works consisted in the design and manufacturing of a double clad optical fiber. The refractive index of the inner cladding was higher than the one of the outer cladding and the core. Thus, light was guided in the inner cladding instead of propagating in the core. This situation was overcome by applying chemical etching, thus removing the inner cladding. The core, surrounded by air, was then able to guide light. Two different applications were found for this fiber, as a temperature sensor and as an optical refractometer. In the last, the optical phase changes with the liquid refractive index. Two different types of fiber Bragg gratings were characterized in strain and temperature. Sensing structures obtained through the phase mask technique at the tip of an optical fiber were subjected to chemical

  1. Designing a Model of Organizational Agility: A Case Study of Ardabil Gas Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Razmi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Organizational agility means the ability of every organization in sensation, perception, and prediction of available changes in the business environment. The importance of organizational agility in a competitive environment is nowadays widely recognized and accepted. The aim of this research was to design a unified theoretical model of organizational agility for Ardabil Gas Company based upon the theoretical principles of organizational agility proposed by Goldman (1995. Independent variables including organizational intelligence, organizational commitment, and organizational trust were considered as mediator variable and other four essential components of organizational agility such as forming of virtual participation valorize to humanistic knowledge and skills, change readiness, and customers answering were known as dependent variables of research. This is an applied, descriptive-correlation research, conducted by survey methodology. In this study, 568 employees, contractors, and subscribers of Ardabil Gas Company were chosen as the statistical population of the study. For the purpose of the study a questionnaire for data collection was used. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM, it is straightforward to test hypotheses of the equality of various correlation coefficients with any number of covariates across multiple groups. The gathered data was analyzed by using SPSS and LISREL software packages. The results of statistical analysis indicate that organizational trust has a significant positive relationship with organizational agility and organizational trust is the moderator of the relationship between technology intelligence and organizational agility and the relationship between organizational commitment and organizational agility.

  2. A case study of high school teachers' decision making models for planning and teaching science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duschl, Richard A.; Wright, Emmett

    The focus of this study was to investigate the manner and the degree to which science teachers consider the nature of the subject matter in their decision making addressing the planning and the delivery of instructional tasks. An assumption of the study is that considerations for the nature of the subject matter should be a factor in a teacher's decision making about what to teach and how to teach. Relevant research literature reviewed includes (1) human decision making and the development of cognitive models of reality, (2) modern philosophies of science, and (3) philosophy of science and science education. Methods of data collection and of data analysis followed Spradley's Developmental Research Sequence guidelines for conducting ethnographic research. Validity of research findings was established from the triangulation of observations, interviews, and documents and surveys. The goal of the research was the development of grounded hypotheses about science TEACHERS' pedagogical decision making. Based on the results of this study it is hypothesized that science TEACHERS' decision-making models of reality for the selection, implementation, and development of instructional tasks are dominated by considerations for (a) student development, (b) curriculum guide objectives, and (c) pressures of accountability. Little, if any, consideration is given to the nature of the subject matter by the science teachers in decision making. Implications exist for the disenfranchisement of teachers from the task of making decisions concerning what to teach.

  3. Towards personalized integrated dementia care: a qualitative study into the implementation of different models of case management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Mierlo, L.D.; Meiland, F.J.M.; van Hout, H.P.J.; Dröes, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: The aim of this process evaluation was to provide insight into facilitators and barriers to the delivery of community-based personalized dementia care of two different case management models, i.e. the linkage model and the combined intensive case management/joint agency model. These two

  4. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  5. Islamic value to the modification of BSC model (a case study in evaluating company performance)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Permana, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Halal is the key word for the Muslim community in consuming goods or services. Providing halal products is the main focus for companies with the largest consumers from the Muslim community. Halal is not only from the ingredients but also from the process in its production. The purpose of this study is to design a model of performance measurement for a company in order to provide halal products. Balance Score Card (BSC) is used as a framework. BSC as a performance measurement system has advantages not only focus on financial aspect but also non finance. Islamic values are incorporated into four perspective of BSC. They are: Selection of sharia financial institutions in financial perspective, payment method by consumer in consumer perspective, number of product with halal certificate and menu clarify in internal business process perspective, then accuracy of payroll time in learning and growth perspective. The modified BSC model obtains 17 Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The model is applied in a culinary industry (restaurant). Structured questionnaires and scheduled interviews are used to collect the important data. The result show that these industry fail to meet 8 from total 17 KPI so performance achievement is only 70.81%, and only reach 22.58% in Islamic value aspect. This is recorded by the company as an input to improve their performance in order to compete in halal food business.

  6. Towards Global QSAR Model Building for Acute Toxicity: Munro Database Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Chavan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A series of 436 Munro database chemicals were studied with respect to their corresponding experimental LD50 values to investigate the possibility of establishing a global QSAR model for acute toxicity. Dragon molecular descriptors were used for the QSAR model development and genetic algorithms were used to select descriptors better correlated with toxicity data. Toxic values were discretized in a qualitative class on the basis of the Globally Harmonized Scheme: the 436 chemicals were divided into 3 classes based on their experimental LD50 values: highly toxic, intermediate toxic and low to non-toxic. The k-nearest neighbor (k-NN classification method was calibrated on 25 molecular descriptors and gave a non-error rate (NER equal to 0.66 and 0.57 for internal and external prediction sets, respectively. Even if the classification performances are not optimal, the subsequent analysis of the selected descriptors and their relationship with toxicity levels constitute a step towards the development of a global QSAR model for acute toxicity.

  7. GIS model for identifying urban areas vulnerable to noise pollution: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilaşco, Ştefan; Govor, Corina; Roşca, Sanda; Vescan, Iuliu; Filip, Sorin; Fodorean, Ioan

    2017-04-01

    The unprecedented expansion of the national car ownership over the last few years has been determined by economic growth and the need for the population and economic agents to reduce travel time in progressively expanding large urban centres. This has led to an increase in the level of road noise and a stronger impact on the quality of the environment. Noise pollution generated by means of transport represents one of the most important types of pollution with negative effects on a population's health in large urban areas. As a consequence, tolerable limits of sound intensity for the comfort of inhabitants have been determined worldwide and the generation of sound maps has been made compulsory in order to identify the vulnerable zones and to make recommendations how to decrease the negative impact on humans. In this context, the present study aims at presenting a GIS spatial analysis model-based methodology for identifying and mapping zones vulnerable to noise pollution. The developed GIS model is based on the analysis of all the components influencing sound propagation, represented as vector databases (points of sound intensity measurements, buildings, lands use, transport infrastructure), raster databases (DEM), and numerical databases (wind direction and speed, sound intensity). Secondly, the hourly changes (for representative hours) were analysed to identify the hotspots characterised by major traffic flows specific to rush hours. The validated results of the model are represented by GIS databases and useful maps for the local public administration to use as a source of information and in the process of making decisions.

  8. European model of satisfaction: a case study with students from a Higher Education Instituition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Anger Cavalheiro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the overall satisfaction determinants of the student’s body of a higher education institution in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil. To do so, a descriptive quantitative research was performed, which used a model based on a Survey with 402 students, being the instrument used to conduct the survey based on the European model of satisfaction. Represented by a structural equation (PASWAN YOUNG, 2002, apud VIEIRA et al., 2008, the ECSI (European Customer Satisfaction Model, focuses on: (i evaluating the influence of perceived quality, the expectation of quality, image and perceived value in the overall student satisfaction; (II evaluating the influence of the general satisfaction of students in the level of loyalty and retention of students in the educational institution, and (III pointing key areas as well as a set of indicators for the management and maintenance of the students’ satisfaction from the institution being analyzed. Thus, with the application of the instrument, three factors able to explain 78% of student’s satisfaction towards the university were found: the first and most representative factor was called the student perceived value, which is the perceived value or level of teaching quality for the price paid by the students, the second factor is the image of the university, and the third factor are the expectations of the student.

  9. Gis-Based Method in Developing Wildfire Risk Model (Case Study in Sasamba, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarunton Boonyanuphap

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Analisis pemetaan lengkap (Cemplete Mapping Analysis yang berbasis sistem informasi geografis (SIG digunakan untuk melakukan pembobotan terhadap nilai “vulnerability” dari faktor-faktor resiko dalam rangka membangun suatu model dan memetakan kelas-kelas resiko kebakaran liar. Ada dua faktor utama, yaitu faktor lingkungan fisik dan aktifitas manusia yang sangat mempengaruhi terjadinya kebakaran hutan. Model yang ditemukan pada saat ini memperlihatkan bahwa kelembaban relatif adalah faktor terpenting diantara faktor lingkungan fisik, sementara jarak terhadap pusat-pusat pemukiman merupakan faktor terpenting diantara faktor aktifitas manusia. Diketahui juga bahwa, terjadinya kebakaran liar lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh faktor aktifitas manusia daripada faktor lingkungan fisik. Pada studi ini, wilayah resiko kebakaran liar dibagi atas 3 kelas, dimana ditemukan bahwa kelas resiko kebakaran tertinggi mendominasi lokasi penelitian, selanjutnya diikuti dengan kelas resiko sedang dan rendah. Berdasarkan hasil verifikasi, model hanya berhasil menduga kelas resiko tinggi yaitu sebesar 76,05%, sementara gagal dalam menduga resiko kebakaran sedang dan rendah (lebih rendah dari 40%.

  10. The Evolution of Network-based Business Models Illustrated Through the Case Study of an Entrepreneurship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Lund

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Existing frameworks for understanding and analyzing the value configuration and structuring of partnerships in relation such network-based business models are found to be inferior. The purpose of this paper is therefore to broaden our understanding of how business models may change over time and how the role of strategic partners may differ over time too. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal case study spanning over years and mobilising multiple qualitative methods such as interviews, observation and participative observation forms the basis of the data collection. Findings: This paper illustrates how a network-based business model arises and evolves and how the forces of a network structure impact the development of its partner relationships. The contribution of this article is to understanding how partners positioned around a business model can be organized into a network-based business model that generates additional value for the core business model and for both the partners and the customers. Research limitations/implications: The results should be taken with caution as they are based on the case study of a single network-based business model. Practical implications: Managers can gain insight into barriers and enablers relating to different types of loose organisations and how to best manage such relationships and interactions Originality/value: This study adds value to the existing literature by reflecting the dynamics created in the interactions between a business model’s strategic partners and how a how a business model can evolve in a series of distinct phases

  11. Modeling of Saharan dust outbreaks over the Mediterranean by RegCM3: case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Santese

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The regional climate model RegCM3 coupled with a radiatively active aerosol model with online feedback is used to investigate direct and semi-direct radiative aerosol effects over the Sahara and Europe in a test case of July 2003. The aerosol model includes dust particles in addition to sulfates, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon and organic carbon. The role of the aerosol online feedback on the radiation budget and the direct radiative forcing (short-wave and long-wave by dust particles are investigated by intercomparing results from three experiments: REF, including all interactive aerosol components, Exp1, not accounting for the aerosol radiative feedback, and Exp2 not accounting for desert dust particles. The comparison of results in the REF experiment with satellite observations, sun/sky radiometer measurements, and lidar profiles at selected Central Mediterranean sites reveals that the spatio-temporal evolution of the aerosol optical depth is reasonably well reproduced by the model during the entire month of July. Results for the dust outbreaks of 17 and 24 July, averaged over the simulation domain, show that the daily-mean SW direct radiative forcing by all particles is −24 Wm−2 and −3.4 Wm−2 on 17 July and −25 Wm−2 and −3.5 Wm−2 on 24 July at the surface and top of the atmosphere, respectively. This is partially offset by the LW direct radiative forcing, which is 7.6 Wm−2 and 1.9 Wm−2 on 17 July and 8.4 Wm−2 and 1.9 Wm−2 on 24 July at the surface and top of the atmosphere, respectively. Hence, the daily-mean SW forcing is offset by the LW forcing of ~30% at the surface and of ~50% at the ToA. It is also shown that atmospheric dynamics and hence dust production and advection processes are dependent on the simulation assumptions and may significantly change within few tens of kilometers. The comparison of REF and Exp1

  12. Economic modelling of price support mechanisms for renewable energy: Case study on Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huber, Claus; Ryan, Lisa; O Gallachoir, Brian; Resch, Gustav; Polaski, Katrina; Bazilian, Morgan

    2007-01-01

    The Irish Government is considering its future targets, policy and programmes for renewable energy for the period beyond 2005. This follows a review in 2003 of policy options that identified a number of different measures to stimulate increased deployment of renewable energy generation capacity. This paper expands this review with an economic analysis of renewable energy price support mechanisms in the Irish electricity generation sector. The focus is on three primary price support mechanisms quota obligations, feed in tariffs and competitive tender schemes. The Green-X computer model is utilised to characterise the RES-E potential and costs in Ireland up until, and including, 2020. The results from this dynamic software tool are used to compare the different support mechanisms in terms of total costs to society and the average premium costs relative to the market price for electricity. The results indicate that in achieving a 20% RES-E proportion of gross electricity consumption by 2020, a tender scheme provides the least costs to society over the period 2006-2020 but only in case there is limited or no strategic bidding. Considering, however, strategic bidding, a feed-in tariff can be the more efficient solution. Between the other two support mechanisms, the total costs to society are highest for feed-in-tariffs (FIT) until 2013, at which point the costs for the quota system begin to rise rapidly and overtake FIT in 2014-2020. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the support mechanism calculations by varying default parameters such as the interim (2010) target, the assumed investment risk levels and the amount of biomass co-firing. This analysis shows that a 2010 target of 15% rather than 13.2% generates lower costs for society over the whole period 2006-2020, but higher costs for the RES-E strategy over the period 2006-2010

  13. Describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling: A case study of universities in Ardabil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghahremani Germi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Empowerment is still on the agenda as a management concept and has become a widely used management term in the last decade or so. The purpose of this research was describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling (SEM at Ardabil universities. Two hundred and twenty managers of Ardabil universities including chancellors, managers, and vice presidents of education, research, and studies participated in this study. Clear and challenging goals, evaluation of function, access to resources, and rewarding were investigated. The results indicated that the designed SEM for empowering managers at university reflects a good fitness level. As it stands out, the conceptual model in the society under investigation was used appropriately. Among variables, access to resources with 88 per cent of load factor was known as the affective variable. Evaluation of function containing 51 per cent of load factor was recognized to have less effect. Results of average rating show that evaluation of function and access to resources with 2.62 coefficients stand at first level. Due to this, they had great impact on managers' empowerment. The results of the analysis provided compelling evidence that model of empowering managers was desirable at Ardabil universities.

  14. Risk Modelling of Late Spring Frost Damage on Fruit Trees, Case Study; Apple Tree, Mashhad Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Rahimi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Mashhad plain is one of the most important regions of Apple cultivated areas. Occurring spring late frost creates a lot of damages on bud and decreasing the yield of Apple in this region. Assessment and risk modeling of frost damage would be useful to manage and decrease the damage. The study area is a part of Khorasan Razavi province which is located in Mashhad plain. This region is located in Northeast Iran (36º to 37 º N, 58 º 30' to 60 º E. The area of this region is about 13000 square km which is about one tenth of Khorasan province area. In order to modeling frost damage risk 12 affective parameters including climatological(Minimum temperature, temperature decreasing rate, temperature Increasing rate, Julian days of frost, cumulative degree days, Area under zero line, and frost duration and geographical parameters (Elevation, Longitude, Latitude, Aspect, and slope were selected. 3 damage full radiative frosts were selected in the period of Apple flowering time which was dated 20 April 2003, 8 April 2005, and 28 March 2005. Required meteorological data were collected from 9 meteorological standard stations inside and outside of study area. Linear multiple regression were used to modeling the relationship. The map for each parameter was plotted by using suitable interpolation method including IDW; Spline; Kriging. A grid map was defined with 5 by 5 kilometers to extract enough data for entering to the model. The regression equation was significant at the level of 99% significance. By using this equation the predicted amounts of frost risk damage were calculated for each point of grid and also the map was plotted. The regression equation of observed and predicted frost damage risk was provided by correlation of 0.93 and the error map also was prepared. According to this study in frost of 31 Farvardin 1388 South West parts of the plain estimated as the most frost risk areas by %53.19 and the southeast parts were estimated as the least

  15. ANFIS-based modelling for coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim; Bermad, Abdelmalek; Dechemi, Noureddine

    2012-04-01

    Coagulation is the most important stage in drinking water treatment processes for the maintenance of acceptable treated water quality and economic plant operation, which involves many complex physical and chemical phenomena. Moreover, coagulant dosing rate is non-linearly correlated to raw water characteristics such as turbidity, conductivity, pH, temperature, etc. As such, coagulation reaction is hard or even impossible to control satisfactorily by conventional methods. Traditionally, jar tests are used to determine the optimum coagulant dosage. However, this is expensive and time-consuming and does not enable responses to changes in raw water quality in real time. Modelling can be used to overcome these limitations. In this study, an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was used for modelling of coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant of Boudouaou, Algeria. Six on-line variables of raw water quality including turbidity, conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, ultraviolet absorbance, and the pH of water, and alum dosage were used to build the coagulant dosage model. Two ANFIS-based Neuro-fuzzy systems are presented. The two Neuro-fuzzy systems are: (1) grid partition-based fuzzy inference system (FIS), named ANFIS-GRID, and (2) subtractive clustering based (FIS), named ANFIS-SUB. The low root mean square error and high correlation coefficient values were obtained with ANFIS-SUB method of a first-order Sugeno type inference. This study demonstrates that ANFIS-SUB outperforms ANFIS-GRID due to its simplicity in parameter selection and its fitness in the target problem.

  16. Scaling Forest Management Practices in Earth System Models: Case Study of Southeast and Pacific Northwest Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourmokhtarian, A.; Becknell, J. M.; Hall, J.; Desai, A. R.; Boring, L. R.; Duffy, P.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Dietze, M.

    2014-12-01

    A wide array of human-induced disturbances can alter the structure and function of forests, including climate change, disturbance and management. While there have been numerous studies on climate change impacts on forests, interactions of management with changing climate and natural disturbance are poorly studied. Forecasts of the range of plausible responses of forests to climate change and management are need for informed decision making on new management approaches under changing climate, as well as adaptation strategies for coming decades. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate and assess simultaneous responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic perturbations and management across multiple spatio-temporal scales, but currently do not represent a wide array of management activities known to impact carbon, water, surface energy fluxes, and biodiversity. The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) incorporates non-linear impacts of fine-scale (~10-1 km) heterogeneity in ecosystem structure both horizontally and vertically at a plant level. Therefore it is an ideal candidate to incorporate different forest management practices and test various hypotheses under changing climate and across various spatial scales. The management practices that we implemented were: clear-cut, conversion, planting, partial harvest, low intensity fire, restoration, salvage, and herbicide. The results were validated against observed data across 8 different sites in the U.S. Southeast (Duke Forest, Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center, North Carolina Loblolly Pine, and Ordway-Swisher Biological Station) and Pacific Northwest (Metolius Research Natural Area, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Wind River Field Station, and Mount Rainier National Park). These sites differ in regards to climate, vegetation, soil, and historical land disturbance as well as management approaches. Results showed that different management practices could successfully

  17. Getting water right: A case study in water yield modelling based on precipitation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessacg, Natalia; Flaherty, Silvia; Brandizi, Laura; Solman, Silvina; Pascual, Miguel

    2015-12-15

    Water yield is a key ecosystem service in river basins and especially in dry regions around the World. In this study we carry out a modelling analysis of water yields in the Chubut River basin, located in one of the driest districts of Patagonia, Argentina. We focus on the uncertainty around precipitation data, a driver of paramount importance for water yield. The objectives of this study are to: i) explore the spatial and numeric differences among six widely used global precipitation datasets for this region, ii) test them against data from independent ground stations, and iii) explore the effects of precipitation data uncertainty on simulations of water yield. The simulations were performed using the ecosystem services model InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) with each of the six different precipitation datasets as input. Our results show marked differences among datasets for the Chubut watershed region, both in the magnitude of precipitations and their spatial arrangement. Five of the precipitation databases overestimate the precipitation over the basin by 50% or more, particularly over the more humid western range. Meanwhile, the remaining dataset (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - TRMM), based on satellite measurements, adjusts well to the observed rainfall in different stations throughout the watershed and provides a better representation of the precipitation gradient characteristic of the rain shadow of the Andes. The observed differences among datasets in the representation of the rainfall gradient translate into large differences in water yield simulations. Errors in precipitation of +30% (-30%) amplify to water yield errors ranging from 50 to 150% (-45 to -60%) in some sub-basins. These results highlight the importance of assessing uncertainties in main input data when quantifying and mapping ecosystem services with biophysical models and cautions about the undisputed use of global environmental datasets. Copyright

  18. Stuttering Intervention in Three Service Delivery Models (Direct, Hybrid, and Telepractice: Two Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. Valentine

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed outcomes in stuttering intervention across three service delivery models: direct, hybrid, and telepractice for two 11-year old children who stutter. The goal of the study was to investigate whether short-term goals were maintained through the telepractice sessions. The Stuttering Severity Instrument, Fourth Edition (SSI-4 was administered to each child before and after each intervention period and weekly fluency samples (percentage of stuttered syllables in a monologue were obtained in each of the 10-week intervention periods. In addition, the Communication Attitudes Test-Revised was used to assess the children’s attitudes toward speaking. Following the telepractice period, parents and children completed a questionnaire concerning the therapy experience via telepractice. Both children continued to improve fluency as measured by the weekly fluency samples. SSI-4 severity ratings improved for one child and remained consistent for the other. These outcomes appear to demonstrate that telepractice is viable for improving and maintaining fluency.

  19. Students attitude towards calculus subject: A case-study using structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awang, Noorehan; Hamid, Nur Nadiah Abd.

    2015-10-01

    This study was designed to assess the attitude of Bumiputera students towards mathematics. The instrument used to measure the attitude was Test of Mathematics Related Attitude (TOMRA). This test measures students' attitudes in four criteria: normality of mathematics (N), attitudes towards mathematics inquiry (I), adoption of mathematics attitude (A) and enjoyment of mathematics lessons (E). The target population of this study was all computer science and quantitative science students who enrolled in a Calculus subject at UiTM Negeri Sembilan. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was carried out and the inter-relationship among the four criteria was analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling. The students scored high in E, moderately in A and relatively low in N and I.

  20. Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case study in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guagliardi, Ilaria; Rovella, Natalia; Apollaro, Carmine; Bloise, Andrea; Rosa, Rosanna De; Scarciglia, Fabio; Buttafuoco, Gabriele

    2016-12-01

    The activity of natural radionuclides in soil has become an environmental concern for local public and national authorities because of the harmful effects of radiation exposure on human health. In this context, modelling and mapping the activity of natural radionuclides in soil is an important research topic. The study was aimed to model, in a spatial sense, the soil radioactivity in an urban and peri-urban soils area in southern Italy to analyse the seasonal influence on soil radioactivity. Measures of gamma radiation naturally emitted through the decay of radioactive isotopes (potassium, uranium and thorium) were analysed using a geostatistical approach to map the spatial distribution of soil radioactivity. The activity of three radionuclides was measured at 181 locations using a high-resolution ?-ray spectrometry. To take into account the influence of season, the measurements were carried out in summer and in winter. Activity data were analysed by using a geostatistical approach and zones of relatively high or low radioactivity were delineated. Among the main processes which influence natural radioactivity such as geology, geochemical, pedological, and ecological processes, results of this study showed a prominent control of radio-emission measurements by seasonal changes. Low natural radioactivity levels were measured in December associated with winter weather and moist soil conditions (due to high rainfall and low temperature), and higher activity values in July, when the soil was dry and no precipitations occurred.

  1. Prospective elementary teachers' perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazio, Claudio; di Paola, Benedetto; Guastella, Ivan

    2012-06-01

    In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  2. Analysis of significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling: Case study Jemma drainage network, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vít Maca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the paper is to describe methodology for calculating significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling and present result of selected one. As a study area part of a Jemma basin in Ethiopian Highland is used. This locality is highly affected by mass movement processes. In the first part all major factors and their influence are described briefly. Majority of the work focuses on research of other methodologies used in susceptibility models and design of own methodology. This method is unlike most of the methods used completely objective, therefore it is not possible to intervene in the results. In article all inputs and outputs of the method are described as well as all stages of calculations. Results are illustrated on specific examples. In study area most important factor for landslide susceptibility is slope, on the other hand least important is land cover. At the end of article landslide susceptibility map is created. Part of the article is discussion of results and possible improvements of the methodology.

  3. Prospective elementary teachers’ perceptions of the processes of modeling: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Fazio1,*

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a study on the approaches to modeling of students of the 4-year elementary school teacher program at the University of Palermo, Italy. The answers to a specially designed questionnaire are analyzed on the basis of an a priori analysis made using a general scheme of reference on the epistemology of mathematics and physics. The study is performed by using quantitative data analysis methods, i.e. factorial analysis of the correspondences and implicative analysis. A qualitative analysis of key words and terms used by students during interviews is also used to examine some aspects that emerged from the quantitative analysis. The students have been classified on the basis of their different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and implications between different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire have been highlighted. The study’s conclusions are consistent with previous research, but the use of quantitative data analysis allowed us to classify the students into three “profiles” related to different epistemological approaches to knowledge construction, and to show the implications of the different conceptual strategies used to answer the questionnaire, giving an estimation of the classification or implication “strength.” Some hints on how a course for elementary school physics and mathematics education can be planned to orient the future teachers to the construction of models of explanation are reported.

  4. A design process for using normative models in shared decision making: a case study in the context of prenatal testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, Sivan; Leshno, Moshe; Fink, Lior

    2014-12-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) encourages the patient to play a more active role in the process of medical consultation and its primary objective is to find the best treatment for a specific patient. Recent findings, however, show that patient preferences cannot be easily or accurately judged on the basis of communicative exchange during routine office visits, even for patients who seek to expand their role in medical decision making (MDM). The objective of this study is to improve the quality of patient-physician communication by developing a novel design process for SDM and then demonstrating, through a case study, the applicability of this process in enabling the use of a normative model for a specific medical situation. Our design process goes through the following stages: definition of medical situation and decision problem, development/identification of normative model, adaptation of normative model, empirical analysis and development of decision support systems (DSS) tools that facilitate the SDM process in the specific medical situation. This study demonstrates the applicability of the process through the implementation of the general normative theory of MDM under uncertainty for the medical-financial dilemma of choosing a physician to perform amniocentesis. The use of normative models in SDM raises several issues, such as the goal of the normative model, the relation between the goals of prediction and recommendation, and the general question of whether it is valid to use a normative model for people who do not behave according to the model's assumptions. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. a case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of (dis)ability in a prospec tive commercial diver with a hand injury – a case study. A case study in disability. W A J (JAck) MeintJes, MB ChB, DOM, FCPHM (SA) Occ Med, MMed (Occ Med). Specialist, Occupational Medicine, Division of Community Health, Department of Interdisciplinary Health Sciences, ...

  6. Emerging Business Models in Education Provisioning: A Case Study on Providing Learning Support as Education-as-a-Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loina Prifti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to give a deeper understanding on emerging business models in the context of education. Industry 4.0/the Industrial Internet in general and especially recent advances in cloud computing enable a new kind of service offering in the education sector and lead to new business models for education: Education-as-a-Service (EaaS. Within EaaS, learning, and teaching contents are delivered as services. By combining a literature review with a qualitative case study, this paper makes a three-fold contribution to the field of business models in education: First, we provide a theoretical definition for a common understanding of EaaS. Second, we present the state-of-the-art research on this new paradigm. Third, in the case study we describe a “best practices” business model of an existing EaaS provider. These insights build a theoretical foundation for further research in this area. The paper concludes with a research agenda for further research in this emerging field.

  7. An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kijl, Björn; Boersma, Durk

    2010-01-01

    Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in

  8. Modeling a Complex Biological Network with Temporal Heterogeneity: Cardiac Myocyte Plasticity as a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloom, Amin R.; Basu, Kalyan; Mandal, Subhrangsu S.; Das, Sajal K.

    Complex biological systems often characterize nonlinear dynamics. Employing traditional deterministic or stochastic approaches to quantify these dynamics either fail to capture their existing deviant effects or lead to combinatorial explosion. In this work we devised a novel approach that projects the biological functions within a pathway to a network of stochastic events that are random in time and space. By applying this approach recursively to the object system we build the event network of the entire system. The dynamics of the system evolves through the execution of the event network by a simulation engine which comprised of a time prioritized event queue. As a case study we utilized the current method and conducted an in-silico experiment on the metabolic plasticity of a cardiac myocyete. We aimed to quantify the down stream effects of insulin signaling that predominantly controls the plasticity in myocardium. Intriguingly, our in-silico results on transcription regulatory effect of insulin showed a good agreement with experimental data. Meanwhile we were able to characterize the flux change across major metabolic pathways over 48 hours of the in-silico experiment. Our simulation performed a remarkable efficiency by conducting 48 hours of simulation-time in less that 2 hours of processor time.

  9. Dealing with Dependent Uncertainty in Modelling: A Comparative Study Case through the Airy Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Cortés

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of uncertainty in differential equations leads to the emergent area of random differential equations. Under this approach, inputs become random variables and/or stochastic processes. Often one assumes that inputs are independent, a hypothesis that simplifies the mathematical treatment although it could not be met in applications. In this paper, we analyse, through the Airy equation, the influence of statistical dependence of inputs on the output, computing its expectation and standard deviation by Fröbenius and Polynomial Chaos methods. The results are compared with Monte Carlo sampling. The analysis is conducted by the Airy equation since, as in the deterministic scenario its solutions are highly oscillatory, it is expected that differences will be better highlighted. To illustrate our study, and motivated by the ubiquity of Gaussian random variables in numerous practical problems, we assume that inputs follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution throughout the paper. The application of Fröbenius method to solve Airy equation is based on an extension of the method to the case where inputs are dependent. The numerical results show that the existence of statistical dependence among the inputs and its magnitude entails changes on the variability of the output.

  10. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  11. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    , however, it is not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

  12. Building new business model from multiple case study research in the Internet of Me

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruggieri Roberto

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The digital revolution has greatly changed the approach to culture, work, leisure time, the way we interact and communicate with people: the digitization of information has taken root and has become essential in all areas of social life as a phenomenon that guides and monitors the transformation of society in all its various forms, bringing great changes in almost all areas and especially in the world of work and industry. One of the core elements of the fourth industrial revolution is the systematic application of IoT technologies (Internet of Things and IoM (Internet of Me to production processes on a global scale. This study seeks to identify the main decision in the IoT/IoM pattern innovation, more specifically, the purpose of the paper is primarily an analysis of what are the possible future benefits of IoT and IoM, trying to understand the effort and their opportunities for a consumer oriented business. Then to analyze the competitive advantage that companies are pursuing when they implement a business which is IoT/IoM oriented. Our research aims to address the following two research questions: 1Does exist a well-structured business model for the companies IoT/IoM service oriented? and 2Is it possible to standardize behavioral pattern and to draw guidelines for companies who want to start similar strategic management? The research presents two phases methodologically joined between them: from a theoretical point of view it is defined the change from the business model towards the “ecosystem” of business model in the strategy IoT/IoM oriented, and from a empirical point of view the business development of an Italian start-up first mover group in the sectors involved in IoT and IoM revolution, through the direct interview qualitative tool.

  13. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-04-03

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  14. Management of a water distribution network by coupling GIS and hydraulic modeling: a case study of Chetouane in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbaki, Chérifa; Benchaib, Mohamed Mouâd; Benziada, Salim; Mahmoudi, Hacène; Goosen, Mattheus

    2017-06-01

    For more effective management of water distribution network in an arid region, Mapinfo GIS (8.0) software was coupled with a hydraulic model (EPANET 2.0) and applied to a case study region, Chetouane, situated in the north-west of Algeria. The area is characterized not only by water scarcity but also by poor water management practices. The results showed that a combination of GIS and modeling permits network operators to better analyze malfunctions with a resulting more rapid response as well as facilitating in an improved understanding of the work performed on the network. The grouping of GIS and modeling as an operating tool allows managers to diagnosis a network, to study solutions of problems and to predict future situations. The later can assist them in making informed decisions to ensure an acceptable performance level for optimal network operation.

  15. A Bayesian Stepwise Discriminant Model for Predicting Risk Factors of Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li-Xia; Sun, Yang; Zhao, Hai; Zhu, Na; Sun, Xing-De; Jin, Xing; Zou, Ai-Min; Mi, Yang; Xu, Ji-Ru

    2017-10-20

    Preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM) can lead to serious consequences such as intrauterine infection, prolapse of the umbilical cord, and neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Genital infection is a very important risk which closely related with PPROM. The preliminary study only made qualitative research on genital infection, but there was no deep and clear judgment about the effects of pathogenic bacteria. This study was to analyze the association of infections with PPROM in pregnant women in Shaanxi, China, and to establish Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis to predict the incidence of PPROM. In training group, the 112 pregnant women with PPROM were enrolled in the case subgroup, and 108 normal pregnant women in the control subgroup using an unmatched case-control method. The sociodemographic characteristics of these participants were collected by face-to-face interviews. Vaginal excretions from each participant were sampled at 28-36+6 weeks of pregnancy using a sterile swab. DNA corresponding to Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Ureaplasma urealyticum (UU), Candida albicans, group B streptococci (GBS), herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1), and HSV-2 were detected in each participant by real-time polymerase chain reaction. A model of Bayesian discriminant analysis was established and then verified by a multicenter validation group that included 500 participants in the case subgroup and 500 participants in the control subgroup from five different hospitals in the Shaanxi province, respectively. The sociological characteristics were not significantly different between the case and control subgroups in both training and validation groups (all P > 0.05). In training group, the infection rates of UU (11.6% vs. 3.7%), CT (17.0% vs. 5.6%), and GBS (22.3% vs. 6.5%) showed statistically different between the case and control subgroups (all P case and control subgroups (P case and control subgroup were 84.1% and 86.8% in the training and validation groups, respectively

  16. The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Luquero, Francisco J; Naibei, Nathan; Touré, Brahima; Allan, Maya; Porten, Klaudia; Lessler, Justin; Rinaldo, Andrea; Azman, Andrew S

    2018-02-01

    Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in

  17. Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  18. Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  19. A Case Study of Using a Multilayered Thermodynamical Snow Model for Radiance Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toure, Ally M.; Goita, Kalifa; Royer, Alain; Kim, Edward J.; Durand, Michael; Margulis, Steven A.; Lu, Huizhong

    2011-01-01

    A microwave radiance assimilation (RA) scheme for the retrieval of snow physical state variables requires a snowpack physical model (SM) coupled to a radiative transfer model. In order to assimilate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) at horizontal polarization (h-pol), an SM capable of resolving melt-refreeze crusts is required. To date, it has not been shown whether an RA scheme is tractable with the large number of state variables present in such an SM or whether melt-refreeze crust densities can be estimated. In this paper, an RA scheme is presented using the CROCUS SM which is capable of resolving melt-refreeze crusts. We assimilated both vertical (v) and horizontal (h) Tbs at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz. We found that assimilating Tb at both h-pol and vertical polarization (v-pol) into CROCUS dramatically improved snow depth estimates, with a bias of 1.4 cm compared to-7.3 cm reported by previous studies. Assimilation of both h-pol and v-pol led to more accurate results than assimilation of v-pol alone. The snow water equivalent (SWE) bias of the RA scheme was 0.4 cm, while the bias of the SWE estimated by an empirical retrieval algorithm was -2.9 cm. Characterization of melt-refreeze crusts via an RA scheme is demonstrated here for the first time; the RA scheme correctly identified the location of melt-refreeze crusts observed in situ.

  20. Model of Chinese Household Kitchen Waste Separation Behavior: A Case Study in Beijing City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalin Yuan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High participation rates by the public in authority projects are key in increasing resident recycling levels. Understanding waste separation behavior is crucial to achieving sustainable waste management within such household-based schemes. To identify the driving forces behind the seldom-discussed kitchen garbage separation behavior, five psychological factors, namely, attitude, perceived behavior control, subjective norms, moral norms, and responsibility denial, are established. Our data originate from a social study of Beijing citizens conducted in July 2013 (n = 362. Through structural equation modeling, we find that moral norms are consistently the most important predictor of household kitchen waste (KW separation behavior. Subjective norms have a larger effect on such behavior than responsibility denial. Data analysis shows that perceived behavior control contributes significantly and independently to the explanation of such behavior. By contrast, attitude towards KW separation is found to be significantly negatively correlated with separation behavior. In conclusion, the model with direct and indirect effects of psychological factors explains 50.3% of the variance in household KW source separation behavior. Implications of the results for the promotion of household KW separation programs are discussed.

  1. Towards a three-component model of fan loyalty: a case study of Chinese youth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-xiao Zhang

    Full Text Available The term "fan loyalty" refers to the loyalty felt and expressed by a fan towards the object of his/her fanaticism in both everyday and academic discourses. However, much of the literature on fan loyalty has paid little attention to the topic from the perspective of youth pop culture. The present study explored the meaning of fan loyalty in the context of China. Data were collected by the method of in-depth interviews with 16 young Chinese people aged between 19 and 25 years who currently or once were pop fans. The results indicated that fan loyalty entails three components: involvement, satisfaction, and affiliation. These three components regulate the process of fan loyalty development, which can be divided into four stages: inception, upgrade, zenith, and decline. This model provides a conceptual explanation of why and how young Chinese fans are loyal to their favorite stars. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  2. Personal Metabolism (PM) coupled with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model: Danish Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalbar, Pradip; Birkved, Morten; Kabins, Simon

    2016-01-01

    in terms of environmental and health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. Analyzing consumer life styles in terms of consumption patterns in order to identify hotspots is hence the focus of this study. This is achieved by taking into account the entire value chain of the commodities consumed...... in the context of environmental and human health burdens,as well as resource consumptions. A systematic commodity consumption, commodity disposal, and life style survey of 1281 persons living in urbanized Danish areas was conducted. The findings of the survey showed new impact dimensions in terms of Personal...... for all the 1281 persons was set-up in Gabi 6. The assessment results obtained applying the model on all 1281 personal consumption scenarios yielded the 1281 Personal Impact Profiles (PIPs). Consumption of food and energy (electricity and thermal energy) proved to be the primary impact sources of PM...

  3. Geomechanical wellbore stability modeling of exploratory wells - study case at middle Magdalena basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvajal Jimenez, Jenny Mabel; Valera Lara, Luz Carime; Rueda, Alexander; Saavedra Trujillo, Nestor Fernando

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the geomechanical wellbore stability modal of an exploratory well sited of middle Magdalena basin (MMB), which is based on the validity of linear elastic deformational theory for porous media; the use of correlations and field tools such as well and image logs to indirect determination of mechanical properties and stress state, additionally, it is shown the modal calibration and validation using drilling events which occurred at other previously drilled wells in the study area, of the exploratory well itself and experimentally evaluated mechanical properties on outcrop and core samples from the basin formations. this application allowed the Instituto Colombiano del Petroleo (ICP) of ECOPETROL S.A. to formally perform the geomechanical modeling of Colombian formations and to accomplish a complete and appropriate methodology to do so; such methodology has been standardized as part of the drilling support process of ECOPETROL S.A., supplying the possibility for taking decisions that contribute to reduce drilling costs and risks during operations

  4. PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR MANUFACTURING APPLICATIONS WITH FUSED DEPOSITION MODELLING – A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. Garg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the suitability of fused deposition modelling (FDM, for the production of a pattern that can be used in direct manufacturing applications. In this work, the benchmark was identified and its best part orientation in a FDM machine was located through experimentation. Control charts and process capability histogram were drawn to assess the process capability of the FDM process. The micro hardness of the prepared sample was measured to check the suitability of the process for investment casting applications. Further dimensional accuracy of patterns was established by IT grades as per the ISO standard UNI EN 20286-I (1995. It was observed that the performance indices for all the dimensions in the present study are greater than 1. The study of photo micrographs using SEM gave an insight into the properties of the component (produced by FDM. This study highlights that the tolerance grades for ABS plastics are consistent with the permissible range of tolerance grades as per the ISO standard UNI EN 20286-I (1995 and DIN16901 standard.

  5. Personal Metabolism (PM) coupled with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model: Danish Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Birkved, Morten; Kabins, Simon; Nygaard, Simon Elsborg

    2016-05-01

    Sustainable and informed resource consumption is the key to make everyday living sustainable for entire populations. An intelligent and strategic way of addressing the challenges related with sustainable development of the everyday living of consumers is to identify consumption-determined hotspots in terms of environmental and health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. Analyzing consumer life styles in terms of consumption patterns in order to identify hotspots is hence the focus of this study. This is achieved by taking into account the entire value chain of the commodities consumed in the context of environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. A systematic commodity consumption, commodity disposal, and life style survey of 1281 persons living in urbanized Danish areas was conducted. The findings of the survey showed new impact dimensions in terms of Personal Metabolism (PM) patterns of residents living in urbanized areas of Denmark. Extending the PM analysis with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) provided a clear picture of the per capita environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions, and the exact origin hereof. A generic PM-LCA Model for all the 1281 persons was set-up in Gabi 6. The assessment results obtained applying the model on all 1281 personal consumption scenarios yielded the 1281 Personal Impact Profiles (PIPs). Consumption of food and energy (electricity and thermal energy) proved to be the primary impact sources of PM, followed by transport. The PIPs further revealed that behavioral factors (e.g. different diets, use of cars, household size) affect the profiles. Hence, behavioral changes are one means out of many that humanity will most likely have to rely on during the sustainable development process. The results of this study will help the Danish and other comparable populations to identify and prioritize the steps towards reducing their environmental, human health, and resource consumption

  6. Novel Integrated Multi-Criteria Model for Supplier Selection: Case Study Construction Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Stević

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain presents a very complex field involving a large number of participants. The aim of the complete supply chain is finding an optimum from the aspect of all participants, which is a rather complex task. In order to ensure optimum satisfaction for all participants, it is necessary that the beginning phase consists of correct evaluations and supplier selection. In this study, the supplier selection was performed in the construction company, on the basis of a new approach in the field of multi-criteria model. Weight coefficients were obtained by DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method, based on the rough numbers. Evaluation and the supplier selection were made on the basis of a new Rough EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution method, which presents one of the latest methods in this field. In order to determine the stability of the model and the applicability of the proposed Rough EDAS method, an extension of the COPRAS and MULTIMOORA method by rough numbers was also performed in this study, and the findings of the comparative analysis were presented. Besides the new approaches based on the extension by rough numbers, the results are also compared with the Rough MABAC (MultiAttributive Border Approximation area Comparison and Rough MAIRCA (MultiAttributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis. In addition, in the sensitivity analysis, 18 different scenarios were formed, the ones in which criteria change their original values. At the end of the sensitivity analysis, SCC (Spearman Correlation Coefficient of the obtained ranges was carried out, confirming the applicability of the proposed approaches.

  7. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  8. Evaluating indoor exposure modeling alternatives for LCA: A case study in the vehicle repair industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Wilson, Michael P.; Hammond, S. Katharine; McKone, Thomas E.

    2009-05-01

    We evaluated three exposure models with data obtained from measurements among workers who use"aerosol" solvent products in the vehicle repair industry and with field experiments using these products to simulate the same exposure conditions. The three exposure models were the: 1) homogeneously-mixed-one-box model, 2) multi-zone model, and 3) eddy-diffusion model. Temporally differentiated real-time breathing zone volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration measurements, integrated far-field area samples, and simulated experiments were used in estimating parameters, such as emission rates, diffusivity, and near-field dimensions. We assessed differences in model input requirements and their efficacy for predictive modeling. The One-box model was not able to resemble the temporal profile of exposure concentrations, but it performed well concerning time-weighted exposure over extended time periods. However, this model required an adjustment for spatial concentration gradients. Multi-zone models and diffusion-models may solve this problem. However, we found that the reliable use of both these models requires extensive field data to appropriately define pivotal parameters such as diffusivity or near-field dimensions. We conclude that it is difficult to apply these models for predicting VOC exposures in the workplace. However, for comparative exposure scenarios in life-cycle assessment they may be useful.

  9. Are transnational tobacco companies' market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

    2013-01-01

    Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs' efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs' efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs' strategies to countries' economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs' strategies in Korea were linked to Korea's export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude towards foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs' strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation.

  10. Are transnational tobacco companies’ market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

    2013-01-01

    Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs’ efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs’ efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs’ strategies to countries’ economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs’ strategies in Korea were linked to Korea’s export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude toward foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs’ strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation. PMID:23327486

  11. Case Study on High Dimensional Data Analysis Using Decision Tree Model

    OpenAIRE

    Smitha.T; V.Sundaram

    2012-01-01

    The major aspire of this paper is to build a model to predict the chances of occurrences of disease in an area. This paper mainly concentrating the data mining technique-Decision tree model to identify the significant parameters for prediction process. The decision tree model created with the help of ID3 algorithm.

  12. Biomimetic agent based modelling using male Frog calling behaviour as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren V.; Demazeau, Yves; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    A new agent-based modelling tool has been developed to allow the modelling of populations of individuals whose interactions are characterised by tightly timed dynamics. The tool was developed to model male frog calling dynamics, to facilitate research into what local rules may be employed by indi...

  13. Computer simulation modeling of recreation use: Current status, case studies, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2005-01-01

    This report compiles information about recent progress in the application of computer simulation modeling to planning and management of recreation use, particularly in parks and wilderness. Early modeling efforts are described in a chapter that provides an historical perspective. Another chapter provides an overview of modeling options, common data input requirements,...

  14. From linear to generalized linear mixed models: A case study in repeated measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compared to traditional linear mixed models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) can offer better correspondence between response variables and explanatory models, yielding more efficient estimates and tests in the analysis of data from designed experiments. Using proportion data from a designed...

  15. Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, A Márcia; Real, Raimundo

    2012-01-01

    We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourability model based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation "A and not B") were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

  16. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, K.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; You, L.; Jin, S.W.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  17. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty--A case study of Dongying, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; You, L; Jin, S W

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, K., E-mail: zhangkaibetter@126.com; Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org; Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.ca; You, L., E-mail: youli_ncepu@126.com; Jin, S.W., E-mail: jinshuwei2014@126.com

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  19. Spatial Air Quality Modelling Using Chemometrics Techniques: A Case Study in Peninsular Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azman Azid; Hafizan Juahir; Mohammad Azizi Amran; Zarizal Suhaili; Mohamad Romizan Osman; Asyaari Muhamad; Asyaari Muhamad; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi

    2015-01-01

    This study shows the effectiveness of hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA), discriminant analysis (DA), principal component analysis (PCA), and multiple linear regressions (MLR) for assessment of air quality data and recognition of air pollution sources. 12 months data (January-December 2007) consisting of 14 stations in Peninsular Malaysia with 14 parameters were applied. Three significant clusters - low pollution source (LPS), moderate pollution source (MPS), and slightly high pollution source (SHPS) were generated via HACA. Forward stepwise of DA managed to discriminate eight variables, whereas backward stepwise of DA managed to discriminate nine variables out of fourteen variables. The PCA and FA results show the main contributor of air pollution in Peninsular Malaysia is the combustion of fossil fuel from industrial activities, transportation and agriculture systems. Four MLR models show that PM 10 account as the most and the highest pollution contributor to Malaysian air quality. From the study, it can be stipulated that the application of chemometrics techniques can disclose meaningful information on the spatial variability of a large and complex air quality data. A clearer review about the air quality and a novelty design of air quality monitoring network for better management of air pollution can be achieved via these methods. (author)

  20. Chronic fatigue syndrome and personality: a case-control study using the Alternative Five Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáez-Francàs, Naia; Valero, Sergi; Calvo, Natalia; Gomà-I-Freixanet, Montserrat; Alegre, José; de Sevilla, Tomás Fernández; Casas, Miquel

    2014-05-30

    Neuroticism is the personality dimension most frequently associated with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Most studies have also shown that CFS patients are less extraverted than non-CFS patients, but results have been inconsistent, possibly because the facets of the extraversion dimension have not been separately analyzed. This study has the following aims: to assess the personality profile of adults with CFS using the Alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM), which considers Activity and Sociability as two separate factors of Extraversion, and to test the discriminant validity of a measure of the AFFM, the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire, in differentiating CFS subjects from normal-range matched controls. The CFS sample consisted of 132 consecutive patients referred for persistent fatigue or pain to the Department of Medicine of a university hospital. These were compared with 132 matched normal population controls. Significantly lower levels of Activity and significantly higher levels of Neuroticism-Anxiety best discriminated CFS patients from controls. The results are consistent with existing data on the relationship between Neuroticism and CFS, and clarify the relationship between Extraversion and CFS by providing new data on the relationship of Activity to CFS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Groundwater Modeling of Fractured Aquifers in Mines: The Case Study of Gavorrano (Tuscany, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzonio, Carlo Alberto; Piccinini, Leonardo; Gargini, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, we describe the hydrogeological problems related to the closure of the mine at Gavorrano (Tuscany, Italy). The geological and geo-structural settings of the Gavorrano area affect the groundwater flow systems and their chemical composition; hence, the settings also affect the chance and modalities to rehabilitate and re-utilize these water resources. This paper reports the results of studies, analyses of existing data and the consequent implementation of preliminary numerical models with particular reference to the effects of controlled water recovery and the complex measures required for stopping dewatering. The study incorporates recent data and the available historical records in an analysis of the hydrodynamic impact of water recovery and an assessment of the consequences of water recovery for water resources restoration. The applied numerical simulations have been demonstrated to be a promising and effective tool for planning and managing the future applications of groundwater recovery in the Gavorrano mining area. Using these applications, it will be possible to implement mitigation measures and types of re-use that consider thermal, chemical and discharge features.

  2. A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trucco, P.; Cagno, E.; Ruggeri, F.; Grande, O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational and organisational conditions. The linkage can be exploited in different ways, especially to support identification and evaluation of risk control options also at the organisational level. Conditional probabilities for the BBN have been estimated by means of experts' judgments, collected from an international panel of different European countries. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out over the model to identify configurations of the MTS leading to a significant reduction of accident probability during the operation of the HSC

  3. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schneeberger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale. Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a field data, (b Delaunay triangulation, and (c a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit (> 10 % when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  4. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Raphael; de La Varga, Miguel; Egli, Daniel; Berger, Alfons; Kober, Florian; Wellmann, Florian; Herwegh, Marco

    2017-09-01

    Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal) in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland) serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing) and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site) information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale) interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale). Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a) field data, (b) Delaunay triangulation, and (c) a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit ( > 10 %) when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  5. High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2014-05-01

    Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

  6. Modelling impacts of offshore wind farms on trophic web: the Courseulles-sur-Mer case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoux, Aurore; Pezy, Jean-Philippe; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; Tecchio, samuele; Degraer, Steven; Wilhelmsson, Dan; Niquil, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    The French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy. These offshore wind farms will integrate into an ecosystem already subject to a growing number of anthropogenic disturbances such as transportation, fishing, sediment deposit, and sediment extraction. The possible effects of this cumulative stressors on ecosystem functioning are still unknown, but they could impact their resilience, making them susceptible to changes from one stable state to another. Understanding the behaviour of these marine coastal complex systems is essential in order to anticipate potential state changes, and to implement conservation actions in a sustainable manner. Currently, there are no global and integrated studies on the effects of construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms. Moreover, approaches are generally focused on the conservation of some species or groups of species. Here, we develop a holistic and integrated view of ecosystem impacts through the use of trophic webs modelling tools. Trophic models describe the interaction between biological compartments at different trophic levels and are based on the quantification of flow of energy and matter in ecosystems. They allow the application of numerical methods for the characterization of emergent properties of the ecosystem, also called Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). These indices have been proposed as ecosystem health indicators as they have been demonstrated to be sensitive to different impacts on marine ecosystems. We present here in detail the strategy for analysing the potential environmental impacts of the construction of the Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (Bay of Seine) such as the reef effect through the use of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. Similar Ecopath simulations will be made in the future on the Le Tréport offshore wind farm site. Results will contribute to a better knowledge of the impacts of the offshore wind farms on ecosystems. They also allow to

  7. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework – Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Glarborg, Peter

    Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer...... numerous steps, expert skills and different modelling tools. This motivates the development of a computer-aided modelling framework that supports the user during model development, documentation, analysis, identification, application and re-use with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modelling...... generation, optimal equation ordering, eigenvalue analysis. Once the models have been constructed and analysed the modelling framework incorporates 3 application work-flows for: identification, simulation and design. For these application work-flows different solvers that can solve a large range of different...

  8. Application of computer-aided multi-scale modelling framework – Aerosol case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Glarborg, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer-aided...... methods provide. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task involving...... numerous steps, expert skills and different modelling tools. This motivates the development of a computer-aided modelling framework that supports the user during model development, documentation, analysis, identification, application and re-use with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modelling...

  9. Procedural 3d Modelling for Traditional Settlements. The Case Study of Central Zagori

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitsakis, D.; Tsiliakou, E.; Labropoulos, T.; Dimopoulou, E.

    2017-02-01

    Over the last decades 3D modelling has been a fast growing field in Geographic Information Science, extensively applied in various domains including reconstruction and visualization of cultural heritage, especially monuments and traditional settlements. Technological advances in computer graphics, allow for modelling of complex 3D objects achieving high precision and accuracy. Procedural modelling is an effective tool and a relatively novel method, based on algorithmic modelling concept. It is utilized for the generation of accurate 3D models and composite facade textures from sets of rules which are called Computer Generated Architecture grammars (CGA grammars), defining the objects' detailed geometry, rather than altering or editing the model manually. In this paper, procedural modelling tools have been exploited to generate the 3D model of a traditional settlement in the region of Central Zagori in Greece. The detailed geometries of 3D models derived from the application of shape grammars on selected footprints, and the process resulted in a final 3D model, optimally describing the built environment of Central Zagori, in three levels of Detail (LoD). The final 3D scene was exported and published as 3D web-scene which can be viewed with 3D CityEngine viewer, giving a walkthrough the whole model, same as in virtual reality or game environments. This research work addresses issues regarding textures' precision, LoD for 3D objects and interactive visualization within one 3D scene, as well as the effectiveness of large scale modelling, along with the benefits and drawbacks that derive from procedural modelling techniques in the field of cultural heritage and more specifically on 3D modelling of traditional settlements.

  10. Applying a contingency model of strategic decision making to the implementation of smoking bans: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemsen, M C; Meijer, A; Jannink, M

    1999-08-01

    A model of strategic decision making was applied to study the implementation of worksite smoking policy. This model assumes there is no best way of implementing smoking policies, but that 'the best way' depends on how decision making fits specific content and context factors. A case study at Wehkamp, a mail-order company, is presented to illustrate the usefulness of this model to understand how organizations implement smoking policies. Interview data were collected from representatives of Wehkamp, and pre- and post-ban survey data were collected from employees. After having failed to solve the smoking problem in a more democratic way, Wehkamp's top management choose a highly confrontational and decentralized decision-making approach to implement a complete smoking ban. This resulted in an effective smoking ban, but was to some extent at the cost of employees' satisfaction with the policy and with how the policy was implemented. The choice of implementation approach was contingent upon specific content and context factors, such as managers' perception of the problem, leadership style and legislation. More case studies from different types of companies are needed to better understand how organizational factors affect decision making about smoking bans and other health promotion innovations.

  11. Ecological niche modeling to determine potential niche of Vaccinia virus: a case only study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiner, Claire A; Nakazawa, Yoshinori

    2017-08-07

    Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data; thus, new analytical strategies are needed to analyze transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data, we demonstrate one such approach. Using an ecological niche model (ENM) algorithm, we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important factors in determining its transmission. A literature review was performed and the geospatial coordinates of 87 molecularly confirmed VACV outbreaks in Brazil were identified. An ENM was generated using MaxENT software by combining principal component analysis results of 19 bioclim spatial layers, and 25 randomly selected subsets of the original list of 87 outbreaks. The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, one out of five of the Colombian outbreak regions and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging

  12. Evaluating MODIS snow products for modelling snowmelt runoff: Case study of the Rio Grande headwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Caitriana; Dialesandro, John; James, Darren; Elias, Emile; Rango, Albert; Bleiweiss, Max

    2017-12-01

    Snow-covered area (SCA) is a key variable in the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) and in other models for simulating discharge from snowmelt. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM +) or Operational Land Imager (OLI) provide remotely sensed data at an appropriate spatial resolution for mapping SCA in small headwater basins, but the temporal resolution of the data is low and may not always provide sufficient cloud-free dates. The coarser spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) offers better temporal resolution and in cloudy years, MODIS data offer the best alternative for mapping snow cover when finer spatial resolution data are unavailable. However, MODIS' coarse spatial resolution (500 m) can obscure fine spatial patterning in snow cover and some MODIS products are not sensitive to end-of-season snow cover. In this study, we aimed to test MODIS snow products for use in simulating snowmelt runoff from smaller headwater basins by a) comparing maps of TM and MODIS-based SCA and b) determining how SRM streamflow simulations are changed by the different estimates of seasonal snow depletion. We compared gridded MODIS snow products (Collection 5 MOD10A1 fractional and binary SCA; SCA derived from Collection 6 MOD10A1 Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) Snow Cover), and the MODIS Snow Covered-Area and Grain size retrieval (MODSCAG) canopy-corrected fractional SCA (SCAMG), with reference SCA maps (SCAREF) generated from binary classification of TM imagery. SCAMG showed strong agreement with SCAREF; excluding true negatives (where both methods agreed no snow was present) the median percent difference between SCAREF and SCAMG ranged between -2.4% and 4.7%. We simulated runoff for each of the four study years using SRM populated with and calibrated for snow depletion curves derived from SCAREF. We then substituted in each of the MODIS-derived depletion curves. With efficiency coefficients ranging between 0.73 and 0.93, SRM

  13. Design multiperiod optimization model for the electricity sector under uncertainty – A case study of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betancourt-Torcat, Alberto; Almansoori, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Generic and novel multiperiod stochastic model is developed for UAE power sector. • The presented model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programing problem. • Power infrastructure over 25 years is outlined under natural gas price uncertainty. • Low electricity prices and better social and environmental benefits were obtained. - Abstract: In this study, a multiperiod model that considers uncertainty in the gas feedstock fuel price is developed for the optimal design of electric power systems. The optimization problem was formulated as a multiperiod stochastic programming model using the GAMS® modeling system. Previous studies have analyzed the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) power infrastructure either using a deterministic point of view or simulation tools (e.g., MESSAGE and MARKAL). These previous research has demonstrated that natural gas will remain playing a significant role as key feedstock fuel in the UAE’s power sector. However, the present work is designed to be the first to consider different supply options for the natural gas feedstock (i.e., domestic, pipeline imports, and LNG imports) and electricity imports in the UAE power sector. Moreover, the natural gas supply and electricity import options are considered to be decision variables in the problem’s formulation. Additionally, the considered case studies assumed a realistically existing power infrastructure for the UAE, whereas previous works considered the planning of the UAE power infrastructure as a Greenfield project. Also, to the authors’ knowledge this is the first work to consider a robust optimization model for planning the UAE power infrastructure under uncertainty in the long term horizon. The model was used to study the planning of the power plant infrastructure in the UAE between 2015 and 2040 under uncertainty in the natural gas price. The optimization results show that the model is a valuable tool for planning the optimal power plant infrastructure of the

  14. A Steam Utility Network Model for the Evaluation of Heat Integration Retrofits – A Case Study of an Oil Refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofie Marton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a real industrial example in which the steam utility network of a refinery is modelled in order to evaluate potential Heat Integration retrofits proposed for the site. A refinery, typically, has flexibility to optimize the operating strategy for the steam system depending on the operation of the main processes. This paper presents a few examples of Heat Integration retrofit measures from a case study of a large oil refinery. In order to evaluate expected changes in fuel and electricity imports to the refinery after implementation of the proposed retrofits, a steam system model has been developed. The steam system model has been tested and validated with steady state data from three different operating scenarios and can be used to evaluate how changes to steam balances at different pressure levels would affect overall steam balances, generation of shaft power in turbines, and the consumption of fuel gas.

  15. Trait-based model development to support breeding programs. A case study for salt tolerance and rice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paleari, Livia; Movedi, Ermes; Confalonieri, Roberto

    2017-06-28

    Eco-physiological models are increasingly used to analyze G × E × M interactions to support breeding programs via the design of ideotypes for specific contexts. However, available crop models are only partly suitable for this purpose, since they often lack clear relationships between parameters and traits breeders are working on. Taking salt stress tolerance and rice as a case study, we propose a paradigm shift towards the building of ideotyping-specific models explicitly around traits involved in breeding programs. Salt tolerance is a complex trait relying on different physiological processes that can be alternatively selected to improve the overall crop tolerance. We developed a new model explicitly accounting for these traits and we evaluated its performance using data from growth chamber experiments (e.g., R 2 ranged from 0.74 to 0.94 for the biomass of different plant organs). Using the model, we were able to show how an increase in the overall tolerance can derive from completely different physiological mechanisms according to soil/water salinity dynamics. The study demonstrated that a trait-based approach can increase the usefulness of mathematical models for supporting breeding programs.

  16. Applications of Wavelet Neural Network Model to Building Settlement Prediction: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qulin TAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Deformation monitoring is a significant work for engineering safety, which is performed throughout the entire process of engineering design, construction and operation. Based on the theoretic analysis of wavelet and neural network, we applied the improved BP neural network model, auxiliary wavelet neural network model and embedded wavelet neural network model to the settlement prediction in one practical engineering monitoring project with MATLAB software programming. The cumulative and the interval settlement was predicted and compared with measured data. The overall performances of the three models were analyzed and compared. The results show that the accuracies of two kinds of wavelet neural network models are roughly the same, which prediction errors of monitoring points are less than 1mm, obviously superior to the single BP neural network model.

  17. Predictive performance of DSGE model for small open economy – the case study of Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Jeřábek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. From the point of view of political practice is appropriate to seek a model that reached a quality prediction performance for all the variables. As monitored variables were used GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. The paper focuses on performance prediction evaluation of the small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model for the Czech republic, where Bayesian method are used for their parameters estimation, against different types of Bayesian and naive random walk model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. The results indicate that the DSGE model generates estimates that are competitive with other models used in this paper.

  18. Integrative multicellular biological modeling: a case study of 3D epidermal development using GPU algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christley Scott

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Simulation of sophisticated biological models requires considerable computational power. These models typically integrate together numerous biological phenomena such as spatially-explicit heterogeneous cells, cell-cell interactions, cell-environment interactions and intracellular gene networks. The recent advent of programming for graphical processing units (GPU opens up the possibility of developing more integrative, detailed and predictive biological models while at the same time decreasing the computational cost to simulate those models. Results We construct a 3D model of epidermal development and provide a set of GPU algorithms that executes significantly faster than sequential central processing unit (CPU code. We provide a parallel implementation of the subcellular element method for individual cells residing in a lattice-free spatial environment. Each cell in our epidermal model includes an internal gene network, which integrates cellular interaction of Notch signaling together with environmental interaction of basement membrane adhesion, to specify cellular state and behaviors such as growth and division. We take a pedagogical approach to describing how modeling methods are efficiently implemented on the GPU including memory layout of data structures and functional decomposition. We discuss various programmatic issues and provide a set of design guidelines for GPU programming that are instructive to avoid common pitfalls as well as to extract performance from the GPU architecture. Conclusions We demonstrate that GPU algorithms represent a significant technological advance for the simulation of complex biological models. We further demonstrate with our epidermal model that the integration of multiple complex modeling methods for heterogeneous multicellular biological processes is both feasible and computationally tractable using this new technology. We hope that the provided algorithms and source code will be a

  19. Adoption of open source software in business models: a Red Hat and IBM case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Munga, N

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available beyond those of customer demand. Linux provided it with a common set of APIs across its entire product line, providing a unified architecture for software developers. IBM refocused on targeting its traditional large corporate customers, and the need... and its position in the market identified [15]. Various types of business models are discussed in the literature. Rappa [16], using the customer relationship as the primary dimension, defines the brokerage model, information intermediary model...

  20. Editorial: Comparing Educational Modelling Languages on the "Planet Game" Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Vignollet, Laurence; Martel, Christian; Burgos, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    A few eLearning research teams promoting a scenario-based approach have adopted the IMS-LD specification, At the same time, other teams have developed other notations, languages and meta-models related to IMS-LD, along with tools and methodologies for modelling and implementing learning activities on eLearning platforms.The aim of this special issue is to share and confront approaches (i.e., models, tools and methodologies) through modelling experiences of collaborative learning activities. T...

  1. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  2. The Models of Applying Online Privacy Literacy Strategies: A Case Study of Instagram Girl Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdollah Bicharanlou

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Social networks affect remarkably in the lives of virtual space users. These networks like most human relations involve compromising between self-disclosure and privacy protection. A process which is realized through improving privacy and empowering the user at the personal level. This study aimed to assess strategies based on online privacy literacy. In particular, strategies that Instagram young girls users should employ to achieve the optimum level of privacy. For this purpose, firstly the paradox of privacy, benefits and risks of self-disclosure are explained, then according to online privacy literacy, some social and technological strategies are introduced by which users can solve the “paradox of privacy.” In the result section, after describing the main benefits and risks of self-disclosure by girl users, the current models of using these social and technological strategies to solve the mentioned paradox are discussed. The research method is ethnography based on non-collaborative observation of Instagram pages and semi-structured interviews with 20 girl users of social networks.

  3. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  4. Modeling of Iranian Cheetah Habitat using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (Case Study: Dare Anjir Wildlife Refuge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zamani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of habitat sustainability indexes is essential in wildlife management and conservation of rare species. Suitable habitats are required in wildlife managements and conservation also, they increase reproduction and survival rate of species. In this study in order to mapping habitat sustainability and recognizing habitat requirements of Iranian Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, field data from Dare Anjir  wildlife refuge were collected since autumn 2009 until summer 2011. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis approach has been used to develop habitat suitability model. In this method primary maps of  habitat variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, distance from water sources and environmental monitoring stations have been produced by Idrisi and Biomapper software and imported in Biomapper. The output scores obtained from the analysis showed that Iranian cheetah tends to mountain areas where has more topographical features for camouflage in order to hunting, and northern aspects which have more humidity, denser vegetation cover and more preys . Our result showed that the Iranian cheetah has medium niche width and prefer marginal habitats.

  5. Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems: A Case Study in a Plastic Manufacturing Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francine Comunello

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The environmental issue has been discussed sharply in the organizational environment, as consumers, and society in general, have been increasingly concerned about the environment. In this sense, the companies, especially the factories, seek to minimize the environmental impact caused by its production processes through actions that combine the organization's economic interests with environmental concerns. Thus, this article aims to analyze how environmental management of the productive sector is being carried out at Industria Beta Chapecó/SC. Therefore, we developed a qualitative and descriptive research in order to apply the Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems (MAASPI in the production of Industria Beta sector. The results showed the main environmental interventions caused by the production process of the organization, particularly the interventions for the consumption of electricity, plant location and chip storage. As main proposals to minimize negative environmental impacts, we have the installation of translucent tiles in the production environment, a study on energy efficiency, construction of water and soil testing, construction of waste storage terminals and implementation of the pre-selection of the raw material. The realization of the suggested adjustments enables Industria Beta to foresee the legal environmental requirements, to aim for enviromental certifications and seals and to strengthen its image as environment-friendly with collaborators and society in general.

  6. Quantification of structural uncertainties in multi-scale models; case study of the Lublin Basin, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepszy, Zbigniew; Szynkaruk, Ewa

    2015-04-01

    The multiscale static modeling of regional structure of the Lublin Basin is carried on in the Polish Geological Institute, in accordance with principles of integrated 3D geological modelling. The model is based on all available geospatial data from Polish digital databases and analogue archives. Mapped regional structure covers the area of 260x80 km located between Warsaw and Polish-Ukrainian border, along NW-SE-trending margin of the East European Craton. Within the basin, the Paleozoic beds with coalbearing Carboniferous and older formations containing hydrocarbons and unconventional prospects are covered unconformably by Permo-Mesozoic and younger rocks. Vertical extent of the regional model is set from topographic surface to 6000 m ssl and at the bottom includes some Proterozoic crystalline formations of the craton. The project focuses on internal consistency of the models built at different scales - from basin (small) scale to field-scale (large-scale). The models, nested in the common structural framework, are being constructed with regional geological knowledge, ensuring smooth transition in the 3D model resolution and amount of geological detail. Major challenge of the multiscale approach to subsurface modelling is the assessment and consistent quantification of various types of geological uncertainties tied to those various scale sub-models. Decreasing amount of information with depth and, particularly, very limited data collected below exploration targets, as well as accuracy and quality of data, all have the most critical impact on the modelled structure. In deeper levels of the Lublin Basin model, seismic interpretation of 2D surveys is sparsely tied to well data. Therefore time-to-depth conversion carries one of the major uncertainties in the modeling of structures, especially below 3000 m ssl. Furthermore, as all models at different scales are based on the same dataset, we must deal with different levels of generalization of geological structures. The

  7. CREATING AND EVALUATING SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODELS – A CROSS-INDUSTRY CASE STUDY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Annabeth

    of understanding, creating and evaluating businesses and their business models. The objective of this article is to explore how sustainable business models can be created and evaluated across different companies and industrial contexts. Although many authors have stressed the business potentials of sustainable...

  8. Morphological modelling of the response to a shipwreck - A case study at Cape Town

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Fredsoe, Jørgen; Deigaard, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    without the need for extensive calibration which is often required by traditional 2D morphological models. This is attributed by the authors to the fact that the sediment transport description is based on a process based model that captures the most important features, while neglecting the often...

  9. Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbrook-Johnson, Peter; Badham, Jennifer; Gilbert, Nigel

    2017-08-01

    Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

  10. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  11. Introducing the Clean-Tech Adoption Model: A California Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlveld, P.C. (Paul); Riezebos, P. (Peter); Wierstra, E. (Erik)

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. The Clean-Tech Adoption Model (C-TAM) explains the adoption process of clean technology. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Usage of Technology (UTAUT) combined with qualitative research and empirical data gathering, the model predicts adoption based on the perceived quality,

  12. Solving scheduling problems by untimed model checking. The clinical chemical analyser case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Margaria, T.; Wijs, Anton J.; Massink, M.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Bortnik, Elena M.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we show how scheduling problems can be modelled in untimed process algebra, by using special tick actions. A minimal-cost trace leading to a particular action, is one that minimises the number of tick steps. As a result, we can use any (timed or untimed) model checking tool to find

  13. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  14. Six Heliport Case Studies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Peisen, Deborah

    1997-01-01

    .... This report evaluates the dynamics of heliport development and operation in order to achieve greater success rate in the future through the case study investigation of six heliports that have both succeeded and failed...

  15. HYDROGEOLOGIC CASE STUDIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrogeology is the foundation of subsurface site characterization for evaluations of monitored natural attenuation (MNA). Three case studies are presented. Examples of the potentially detrimental effects of drilling additives on ground-water samples from monitoring wells are d...

  16. Normal linear models with genetically structured residual variance heterogeneity: a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Daniel; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2003-01-01

    Normal mixed models with different levels of heterogeneity in the residual variance are fitted to pig litter size data. Exploratory analysis and model assessment is based on examination of various posterior predictive distributions. Comparisons based on Bayes factors and related criteria favour...... models with a genetically structured residual variance heterogeneity. There is, moreover, strong evidence of a negative correlation between the additive genetic values affecting litter size and those affecting residual variance. The models are also compared according to the purposes for which they might...... be used, such as prediction of 'future' data, inference about response to selection and ranking candidates for selection. A brief discussion is given of some implications for selection of the genetically structured residual variance model....

  17. Objectivist case study research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridder, Hanne Mette Ochsner; Fachner, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    be achieved through the use of objectivist case study research. The strength of the case study design is that it allows for uncovering or suggesting causal relationships in real-life settings through an intensive and rich collection of data. According to Hilliard (1993), the opposite applies for extensive...... designs, in which a small amount of data is gathered on a large number of subjects. With the richness of data, the intensive design is ―the primary pragmatic reason for engaging in single-case or small N research‖ (p. 374) and for working from an idiographic rather than a nomothetic perspective....

  18. Spatial Random Effects Survival Models to Assess Geographical Inequalities in Dengue Fever Using Bayesian Approach: a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Taufik, Irfan

    2018-03-01

    Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus. The increasing number of people with DHF disease correlates with the neighbourhood, for example sub-districts, and the characteristics of the sub-districts are formed from individuals who are domiciled in the sub-districts. Data containing individuals and sub-districts is a hierarchical data structure, called multilevel analysis. Frequently encountered response variable of the data is the time until an event occurs. Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in DHF survival. Using a case study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel with spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all cause survival.

  19. Risk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Neil R.; Wagener, Thorsten; Wheater, Howard S.; Chapra, Steven C.

    2003-04-01

    A model of phytoplankton, dissolved oxygen and nutrients is presented and applied to the Charles River, Massachusetts within a framework of Monte Carlo simulation. The model parameters are conditioned using data from eight sampling stations along a 40 km stretch of the Charles River, during a (supposed) steady-state period in the summer of 1996, and the conditioned model is evaluated using data from later in the same year. Regional multi-objective sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters and pollution sources most affecting the various model outputs under the conditions observed during that summer. The effects of Monte Carlo sampling error are included in this analysis, and the observations which have least contributed to model conditioning are indicated. It is shown that the sensitivity analysis can be used to speculate about the factors responsible for undesirable levels of eutrophication, and to speculate about the risk of failure of nutrient reduction interventions at a number of strategic control sections. The analysis indicates that phosphorus stripping at the CRPCD wastewater treatment plant on the Charles River would be a high-risk intervention, especially for controlling eutrophication at the control sections further downstream. However, as the risk reflects the perceived scope for model error, it can only be recommended that more resources are invested in data collection and model evaluation. Furthermore, as the risk is based solely on water quality criteria, rather than broader environmental and economic objectives, the results need to be supported by detailed and extensive knowledge of the Charles River problem.

  20. Model reduction of multiscale chemical langevin equations: a numerical case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulos, Vassilios; Contou-Carrere, Marie-Nathalie; Daoutidis, Prodromos; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

    2009-01-01

    Two very important characteristics of biological reaction networks need to be considered carefully when modeling these systems. First, models must account for the inherent probabilistic nature of systems far from the thermodynamic limit. Often, biological systems cannot be modeled with traditional continuous-deterministic models. Second, models must take into consideration the disparate spectrum of time scales observed in biological phenomena, such as slow transcription events and fast dimerization reactions. In the last decade, significant efforts have been expended on the development of stochastic chemical kinetics models to capture the dynamics of biomolecular systems, and on the development of robust multiscale algorithms, able to handle stiffness. In this paper, the focus is on the dynamics of reaction sets governed by stiff chemical Langevin equations, i.e., stiff stochastic differential equations. These are particularly challenging systems to model, requiring prohibitively small integration step sizes. We describe and illustrate the application of a semianalytical reduction framework for chemical Langevin equations that results in significant gains in computational cost.

  1. Statistical external validation and consensus modeling: a QSPR case study for Koc prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramatica, Paola; Giani, Elisa; Papa, Ester

    2007-03-01

    The soil sorption partition coefficient (log K(oc)) of a heterogeneous set of 643 organic non-ionic compounds, with a range of more than 6 log units, is predicted by a statistically validated QSAR modeling approach. The applied multiple linear regression (ordinary least squares, OLS) is based on a variety of theoretical molecular descriptors selected by the genetic algorithms-variable subset selection (GA-VSS) procedure. The models were validated for predictivity by different internal and external validation approaches. For external validation we applied self organizing maps (SOM) to split the original data set: the best four-dimensional model, developed on a reduced training set of 93 chemicals, has a predictivity of 78% when applied on 550 validation chemicals (prediction set). The selected molecular descriptors, which could be interpreted through their mechanistic meaning, were compared with the more common physico-chemical descriptors log K(ow) and log S(w). The chemical applicability domain of each model was verified by the leverage approach in order to propose only reliable data. The best predicted data were obtained by consensus modeling from 10 different models in the genetic algorithm model population.

  2. Modelling Urban Sprawl Using Remotely Sensed Data: A Case Study of Chennai City, Tamilnadu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajchandar Padmanaban

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl (US, propelled by rapid population growth leads to the shrinkage of productive agricultural lands and pristine forests in the suburban areas and, in turn, adversely affects the provision of ecosystem services. The quantification of US is thus crucial for effective urban planning and environmental management. Like many megacities in fast growing developing countries, Chennai, the capital of Tamilnadu and one of the business hubs in India, has experienced extensive US triggered by the doubling of total population over the past three decades. However, the extent and level of US has not yet been quantified and a prediction for future extent of US is lacking. We employed the Random Forest (RF classification on Landsat imageries from 1991, 2003, and 2016, and computed six landscape metrics to delineate the extent of urban areas within a 10 km suburban buffer of Chennai. The level of US was then quantified using Renyi’s entropy. A land change model was subsequently used to project land cover for 2027. A 70.35% expansion in urban areas was observed mainly towards the suburban periphery of Chennai between 1991 and 2016. The Renyi’s entropy value for year 2016 was 0.9, exhibiting a two-fold level of US when compared to 1991. The spatial metrics values indicate that the existing urban areas became denser and the suburban agricultural, forests and particularly barren lands were transformed into fragmented urban settlements. The forecasted land cover for 2027 indicates a conversion of 13,670.33 ha (16.57% of the total landscape of existing forests and agricultural lands into urban areas with an associated increase in the entropy value to 1.7, indicating a tremendous level of US. Our study provides useful metrics for urban planning authorities to address the social-ecological consequences of US and to protect ecosystem services.

  3. Context-Aware Mobile Collaborative Systems: Conceptual Modeling and Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis G. Montané-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A Mobile Collaborative System (MCOS enable the cooperation of the members of a team to achieve a common goal by using a combination of mobile and fixed technologies. MCOS can be enhanced if the context of the group of users is considered in the execution of activities. This paper proposes a novel model for Context-Aware Mobile COllaborative Systems (CAMCOS and a functional architecture based on that model. In order to validate both the model and the architecture, a prototype system in the tourism domain was implemented and evaluated.

  4. BSim models for 2 case-studies of naturally and mechanically ventilated daycare institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalyanova, O.; Heiselberg, P.

    2009-06-15

    The report intends to provide complete information necessary for evaluation of assumptions made in the models and conclusions derived from the results of simulation of two different institutions in various operational modes. Thermal models are prepared for two day-care buildings, one which is mechanically ventilated and one which is naturally ventilated. All simulations were preformed in BSim, and all the models are simulated in the current version og BSim which is version 6,8,9,8. The results of the simulations showed that it is possible to reduce energy use for ventilation, both in mechanically and naturally ventilated child care center without compromising indoor air quality. (ln)

  5. H2A Biomethane Model Documentation and a Case Study for Biogas From Dairy Farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saur, G.; Jalalzadeh, A.

    2010-12-01

    The new H2A Biomethane model was developed to estimate the levelized cost of biomethane by using the framework of the vetted original H2A models for hydrogen production and delivery. For biomethane production, biogas from sources such as dairy farms and landfills is upgraded by a cleanup process. The model also estimates the cost to compress and transport the product gas via the pipeline to export it to the natural gas grid or any other potential end-use site. Inputs include feed biogas composition and cost, required biomethane quality, cleanup equipment capital and operations and maintenance costs, process electricity usage and costs, and pipeline delivery specifications.

  6. Learning outcomes from participatory modelling: A case study in the Tamar catchment, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Tobias; Inman, Alex; Chilvers, Jason

    2014-05-01

    Strong arguments for participatory modelling in hydrology can be made on substantive, instrumental and normative grounds. These arguments have led to increasingly diverse groups of stakeholders (here anyone affecting or affected by an issue) getting involved in hydrological research and the management of water resources. In fact, participation has become a requirement of many research grants, programmes, plans and policies. However, evidence of beneficial outcomes of participation as suggested by the arguments is difficult to generate and therefore rare. This is because outcomes are diverse, distributed, often tacit, and take time to emerge. In this paper we present results from applying an evaluation framework focussed on learning outcomes (Krueger et al., 2012) to a participatory modelling process within the Tamar catchment pilot of the UK government's new Catchment Based Approach of managing water resources. The process was run as a series of workshops with email and telephone conversations in between. The outputs were models of sediment and Faecal Coliform transfers from land to water and down to the catchment outlet, mitigated by sewage treatment options, land use, livestock densities and farm management practices. The learning outcomes were assessed through semi-structured interviews with the participants. The results indicate a lack of fairness and some competence issues of the participatory modelling process. Nevertheless, salience, credibility and legitimacy of the models were judged positively by the majority of participants, and some substantive and instrumental benefits of participatory modelling theory could be confirmed, specifically input of better data and increased buy-in and ownership from the participants, respectively. Instrumental learning by the participants was high and facilitated through the models as well as the group setting. Communicative learning by the participants was mixed, with people increasingly appreciating the views of others

  7. Solving a Real Constraint Satisfaction Model for the University Course Timetabling Problem: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Cruz-Chávez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a real mathematical constraint satisfaction model which defines the timetabling problem in the Faculty of Chemical Sciences and Engineering (FCSE at the Autonomous University of Morelos State, Mexico. A Constructive Approach Algorithm (CAA is used to obtain solutions in the proposed model. A comparison is made between the CAA’s results and the schedule generated by the FCSE administration. Using the constraint satisfaction model, it is possible to improve the allocation of class hours in the FCSE so that classroom use is more efficient.

  8. Model for marketing liquefied petroleum gas in Nigeria: Warri as a case study / Nonekuone Jolomi

    OpenAIRE

    Nonekuone, Jolomi

    2008-01-01

    Despite the huge national energy resources, many Nigerians do not have access to high quality, modern energy services. For those with access, energy supply lacks reliability, especially in the case of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Hence this research considers the possibility of enhancing the household use of LPG. It analyzes the factors affecting the current demand and supply. Salient features of the LPG supply and distribution system were also discussed. On the basis of t...

  9. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... opportunities for its actors. This can be explained by the fact that Axis, as the orchestrator and the platform owner, does not address the productivity and robustness of the ecosystem adequately, but has a network of vendors and resellers to support it and some of the governance activities (e.g. communication...

  10. An empirical survey on perceived value from tourism destination based on brand equity model: A case study of Qeshm Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Qaemi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Tourism destination brand equity is defined as all assets (or debts of brands provided with name and symbol of tourism destination to make changes in value services of experiences. In many cases, brand equity is more than physical assets. This survey performs an investigation to identify effective factors in tourism destination equity, cause and affects relationships, and proposes a model for perceived value of tourism destination. The proposed study is performed in one of free islands named Gheshm. The preliminary results indicate that there is a positive relationship between tourism destination brand awareness and destination brand equity, tourism destination brand image, destination brand equity and tourism destination brand loyalty.

  11. Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

  12. Bringing Automated Model Checking to PLC Program Development - A CERN Case Study

    CERN Document Server

    Fernandez Adiego, B; Tournier, J-C; Blanco Vinuela, E; Gonzalez Suarez, V M

    2014-01-01

    Verification of critical software is a high priority but a challenging task for industrial control systems. Model checking appears to be an appropriate approach for this purpose. However, this technique is not widely used in industry yet, due to some obstacles. The main obstacles encountered when trying to apply formal verification techniques at industrial installations are the difficulty of creating models out of PLC programs and defining formally the specification requirements. In addition, models produced out of real-life programs have a huge state space, thus preventing the verification due to performance issues. Our work at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) focuses on developing efficient automatic verification methods for industrial critical installations based on PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) control systems. In this paper, we present a tool generating automatically formal models out of PLC code. The tool implements a general methodology which can support several input languages, ...

  13. Modelling temperature dynamics of a district heating system in Naestved, Denmark-A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrielaitiene, Irina; Bohm, Benny; Sunden, Bengt

    2007-01-01

    Modelling the temperature dynamics of a district heating system is typically validated for a single pipe or a system with limited information about dynamic consumer behaviour. In the present work, time dependent consumer data from the Naestved district heating system was used to investigate the ability of modelling tools to represent the temperature profile distortion throughout an entire heating system network. The Naestved district heating subsystem was modelled by two approaches (the node method developed at the Technical University of Denmark and the software TERMIS), and these modelling results were compared with measured data. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the predicted and measured temperatures are pronounced for consumers located in pipelines at distant pipelines containing numerous bends and fittings. Additionally, it was found that representing the consumer behaviour on an annual average basis introduced a deviation between the predicted and the measured return temperatures at the heat source

  14. Operational oil spill trajectory modelling using HF radar currents: A northwest European continental shelf case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abascal, Ana J; Sanchez, Jorge; Chiri, Helios; Ferrer, María I; Cárdenas, Mar; Gallego, Alejandro; Castanedo, Sonia; Medina, Raúl; Alonso-Martirena, Andrés; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Hughes, Sarah L

    2017-06-15

    This paper presents a novel operational oil spill modelling system based on HF radar currents, implemented in a northwest European shelf sea. The system integrates Open Modal Analysis (OMA), Short Term Prediction algorithms (STPS) and an oil spill model to simulate oil spill trajectories. A set of 18 buoys was used to assess the accuracy of the system for trajectory forecast and to evaluate the benefits of HF radar data compared to the use of currents from a hydrodynamic model (HDM). The results showed that simulated trajectories using OMA currents were more accurate than those obtained using a HDM. After 48h the mean error was reduced by 40%. The forecast skill of the STPS method was valid up to 6h ahead. The analysis performed shows the benefits of HF radar data for operational oil spill modelling, which could be easily implemented in other regions with HF radar coverage. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A model of energy management analysis, case study of a sugar ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tolga Taner

    2018-03-19

    ] indicated a multi-period inventory transportation model for tactical planning of food grain. Mogale et al [52] researched the multi-period multi-modal bulk wheat transportation and storage problem in a two- stage supply chain ...

  16. Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of a Fixed-Wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: a Case Study of Wulung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadjar Rahino Triputra

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing a nonlinear adaptive control system for a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV requires a mathematical representation of the system dynamics analytically as a set of differential equations in the form of a strict-feedback systems. This paper presents a method for modeling a nonlinear flight dynamics of the fixed-wing UAV of BPPT Wulung in any conditions of the flight altitude and airspeed for the first step into designing a nonlinear adaptive controller. The model was formed into 10-DOF differential equations in the form of strict-feedback systems which separates the terms of elevator, aileron, rudder and throttle from the model. The model simulation results show the behavior of the flight dynamics of the Wulung UAV and also prove the compliance with the actual flight test results.

  17. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  18. Hydrologic modeling for water resource assessment in a developing country: the Rwanda case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve McNulty; Erika Cohen Mack; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell

    2016-01-01

    Accurate water resources assessment using hydrologic models can be a challenge anywhere, but particularly for developing countries with limited financial and technical resources. Developing countries could most benefit from the water resource planning capabilities that hydrologic models can provide, but these countries are least likely to have the data needed to run ...

  19. Conceptual-level workflow modeling of scientific experiments using NMR as a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gryk Michael R

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientific workflows improve the process of scientific experiments by making computations explicit, underscoring data flow, and emphasizing the participation of humans in the process when intuition and human reasoning are required. Workflows for experiments also highlight transitions among experimental phases, allowing intermediate results to be verified and supporting the proper handling of semantic mismatches and different file formats among the various tools used in the scientific process. Thus, scientific workflows are important for the modeling and subsequent capture of bioinformatics-related data. While much research has been conducted on the implementation of scientific workflows, the initial process of actually designing and generating the workflow at the conceptual level has received little consideration. Results We propose a structured process to capture scientific workflows at the conceptual level that allows workflows to be documented efficiently, results in concise models of the workflow and more-correct workflow implementations, and provides insight into the scientific process itself. The approach uses three modeling techniques to model the structural, data flow, and control flow aspects of the workflow. The domain of biomolecular structure determination using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy is used to demonstrate the process. Specifically, we show the application of the approach to capture the workflow for the process of conducting biomolecular analysis using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR spectroscopy. Conclusion Using the approach, we were able to accurately document, in a short amount of time, numerous steps in the process of conducting an experiment using NMR spectroscopy. The resulting models are correct and precise, as outside validation of the models identified only minor omissions in the models. In addition, the models provide an accurate visual description of the control flow for conducting

  20. Strategic Alliance Development - A Process Model A Case Study Integrating Elements of Strategic Alliances

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Yunos, Mohd Bulkiah

    2007-01-01

    There has been enormous increase in the formation of strategic alliance and the research efforts devoted to understanding alliance development process over the last few decades. However, the critical elements that influence the each stage of alliance development are yet unexplored. This dissertation aims to fill this gap and to supplement it by introducing an integrated process model of strategic alliance development and its critical elements. The process model for strategic alliance developm...

  1. Challenges in Soft Computing: Case Study with Louisville MSD CSO Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormsbee, L.; Tufail, M.

    2005-12-01

    The principal constituents of soft computing include fuzzy logic, neural computing, evolutionary computation, machine learning, and probabilistic reasoning. There are numerous applications of these constituents (both individually and combination of two or more) in the area of water resources and environmental systems. These range from development of data driven models to optimal control strategies to assist in more informed and intelligent decision making process. Availability of data is critical to such applications and having scarce data may lead to models that do not represent the response function over the entire domain. At the same time, too much data has a tendency to lead to over-constraining of the problem. This paper will describe the application of a subset of these soft computing techniques (neural computing and genetic algorithms) to the Beargrass Creek watershed in Louisville, Kentucky. The application include development of inductive models as substitutes for more complex process-based models to predict water quality of key constituents (such as dissolved oxygen) and use them in an optimization framework for optimal load reductions. Such a process will facilitate the development of total maximum daily loads for the impaired water bodies in the watershed. Some of the challenges faced in this application include 1) uncertainty in data sets, 2) model application, and 3) development of cause-and-effect relationships between water quality constituents and watershed parameters through use of inductive models. The paper will discuss these challenges and how they affect the desired goals of the project.

  2. Soil erosion and sediment connectivity modelling in Burgundy vineyards: case study of Mercurey, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fressard, Mathieu; Cossart, Étienne; Lejot, Jêrome; Michel, Kristell; Perret, Franck; Christol, Aurélien; Mathian, Hélène; Navratil, Oldrich

    2017-04-01

    This research aims at assessing the impact of agricultural landscape structure on soil erosion and sediment connectivity at the catchment scale. The investigations were conducted the vineyards of Mercurey (Burgundy, France), characterized by important issues related to soil loss, flash floods and associated management infrastructures maintenance. The methodology is based on two main steps that include (1) field investigations and (2) modelling. The field investigations consists in DEM acquisition by LiDAR imaging from a drone, soil mapping and human infrastructures impacting runoff classification and mapping (such as crop rows, storm water-basins, drainage network, roads, etc.). These data aims at supplying the models with field observations. The modelling strategy is based on two main steps: First, the modelling of soil sensitivity to erosion, using the spatial application of the RUSLE equation. Secondly, to assess the sediment connectivity in this area, a model based on graph theory developed by Cossart and Fressard (2017) is tested. The results allow defining the influence of different anthropogenic structures on the sediment connectivity and soil erosion at the basin scale. A set of sub-basins influenced by various anthropogenic infrastructures have been identified and show contrasted sensitivities to erosion. The modelling of sediment connectivity show that the runoff pattern is strongly influenced by the vine rows orientation and the drainage network. I has also permitted to identify non collected (by storm water-basins) areas that strongly contribute to the turbid floods sediment supply and to soil loss during high intensity precipitations events.

  3. An Analysis of OpenACC Programming Model: Image Processing Algorithms as a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Mišić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Graphics processing units and similar accelerators have been intensively used in general purpose computations for several years. In the last decade, GPU architecture and organization changed dramatically to support an ever-increasing demand for computing power. Along with changes in hardware, novel programming models have been proposed, such as NVIDIA’s Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA and Open Computing Language (OpenCL by Khronos group. Although numerous commercial and scientific applications have been developed using these two models, they still impose a significant challenge for less experienced users. There are users from various scientific and engineering communities who would like to speed up their applications without the need to deeply understand a low-level programming model and underlying hardware. In 2011, OpenACC programming model was launched. Much like OpenMP for multicore processors, OpenACC is a high-level, directive-based programming model for manycore processors like GPUs. This paper presents an analysis of OpenACC programming model and its applicability in typical domains like image processing. Three, simple image processing algorithms have been implemented for execution on the GPU with OpenACC. The results were compared with their sequential counterparts, and results are briefly discussed.

  4. Comparison of acoustical and optical zooplankton measurements using an acoustic scattering model: A case study from the Arctic frontal zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szczucka Joanna

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-frequency acoustic measurements supplemented by a modern optical method, Laser Optical Plankton Counter (LOPC, allowed us to perform a comparative analysis through the application of a mathematical model. We have studied the correspondence between measured and modelled echoes from zooplankton aggregations consisted mainly of two Calanus species. Data were collected from the upper 50 m water layer within the hydrographical frontal zone on the West Spitsbergen Shelf. The application of a “high-pass” model of sound scattering by fluid-like particles to the distribution of zooplankton sizes measured by LOPC resulted mostly in very good agreement between the measured (420 kHz BioSonics and modelled values, except for cases with very low zooplankton abundance or with occurrence of stronger scatterers (e.g. macrozooplankton, fish. An acoustic model validated for the elastic parameters of zooplankton confirmed that particles smaller than 1mmin diameter, although highly abundant, did not contribute significantly to the sound scattering process at a frequency of 420 kHz. The implementation of diverse complementary methods has great potential to obtain high spatial and temporal resolution in zooplankton distribution studies; however, their compatibility has to be tested first.

  5. APPLICATION OF SOIL LOSS SCENARIOS USING THE ROMSEM MODEL DEPENDING ON MAXIMUM LAND USE PRETABILITY CLASSES. A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANDA ROȘCA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Application of Soil Loss Scenarios Using the ROMSEM Model Depending on Maximum Land Use Pretability Classes. A Case Study. Practicing a modern agriculture that takes into consideration the favourability conditions and the natural resources of a territory represents one of the main national objectives. Due to the importance of the agricultural land, which prevails among the land use types from the Niraj river basin, as well as the pedological and geomorphological characteristics, different areas where soil erosion is above the accepted thresholds were identified by applying the ROMSEM model. In order to do so, a GIS database was used, regrouping quantitative information regarding soil type, land use, climate and hydrogeology, used as indicators in the model. Estimations for the potential soil erosion have been made on the entire basin as well as on its subbasins. The essential role played by the morphometrical characteristics has also been highlighted (concavity, convexity, slope length etc.. Taking into account the strong agricultural characteristic of the analysed territory, the scoring method was employed for the identification of crop favourability in the case of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, sugar beet, potato, soy and pea-bean. The results have been used as input data for the C coefficient (crop/vegetation and management factor in the ROMSEM model that was applied for the present land use conditions, as well as for other four scenarios depicting the land use types with maximum favourability. The theoretical, modelled values of the soil erosion were obtained dependent on land use, while the other variables of the model were kept constant.

  6. A universal calibrated model for the evaluation of surface water and groundwater quality: Model development and a case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chunxue; Yin, Xin'an; Li, Zuoyong; Yang, Zhifeng

    2015-11-01

    Water quality evaluation is an important issue in environmental management. Various methods have been used to evaluate the quality of surface water and groundwater. However, all previous studies have used different evaluation models for surface water and groundwater, and the models must be recalibrated due to changes in monitoring indicators in each evaluation. Water quality managers would benefit from a universal and effective model based on a simple expression that would be suitable for all cases of surface water and groundwater, and which could therefore serve as a standard method for a region or country. To meet this requirement, we attempted to develop a universal calibrated model based on the radial basis function neural network. In the new model, the units and values of the evaluation indicators for surface water and groundwater are normalized simultaneously to make the data directly comparable. The model's training inputs comprise the normalized value in each of a water quality indicator's grades (e.g., the nitrate contents defined in a regulatory standard for grades I to V) for all evaluation indicators. The central vector of the Gaussian function is used as the average of the evaluation indicators' normalized standard values for the five grades. The final calibrated model is expressed as an equation rather than in a programming language, and is therefore easier to use. We used the model in a Chinese case study, and found that the model was feasible (it compared well with the results of other models) and simple to use for the evaluation of surface water and groundwater quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. DEVELOPING "SEKOLAH PETERNAKAN RAKYAT" PROGRAM USING THE BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS APPROACH (CASE STUDY: BOJONEGORO REGENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friesgina Wiska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available SPR Maju Bersama is one of the location where the concept of "Sekolah Peternakan Rakyat (SPR" is implemented, with the aim to encourage small-scale beef cattle breeder establish a professional collective enterprise under one management. SPR is designed to  change the mindset, knowledge and capability of the beef cattle breeder to become the best and self-reliant  entrepreneurs in the beef cattle business. In the effort to achieve its objective, the organization has not been able to carry out the model business effectively thus new strategies are needed to improve the business model. The objectives of this research are: 1 identify the present business model carried out by SPR Maju Bersama; 2 to carry out SWOT evaluation on each element of the business model; 3 formulate strategic to improve the business model that is formulated in an accurate programs. This research used the combination of business model canvas (BMC approach and SWOT matrix analysis. The results it is concluded that the SPR Maju Bersama need to improve the business model through alternatives strategies that have been developed include: 1 increase the number of farmer members; 2 apply the concept of "agrosilvopastura" to optimize the management of natural resources; 3 increase the intensity of assistance through e-learning; 4 improve the quality and intensity of the relationship between management and farmers; 5 develop curricula, programs and guide books as well as strengthen the system of membership; 6 expand the partnership by utilizing information technology and existing business partners; 7 establish training centers and services as a resource in the field of SPR and beef cattle; 8 utilizes a strong partnership to change the mindset of farmers; 9 increasing leadership skill and the ability to use communications technology in the management of SPR.Keywords: sekolah peternakan rakyat, Bojonegoro, BMC, matrix SWOT

  8. Incorporating Field Studies into Species Distribution and Climate Change Modelling: A Case Study of the Koomal Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus (Phalangeridae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun W Molloy

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus. The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1 the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2 areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3 gap crossing between patches (>400 m was common behaviour; 4 koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5 where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these

  9. Two Echelon Supply Chain Integrated Inventory Model for Similar Products: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parjane, Manoj Baburao; Dabade, Balaji Marutirao; Gulve, Milind Bhaskar

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical model towards minimization of total cost across echelons in a multi-product supply chain environment. The scenario under consideration is a two-echelon supply chain system with one manufacturer, one retailer and M products. The retailer faces independent Poisson demand for each product. The retailer and the manufacturer are closely coupled in the sense that the information about any depletion in the inventory of a product at a retailer's end is immediately available to the manufacturer. Further, stock-out is backordered at the retailer's end. Thus the costs incurred at the retailer's end are the holding costs and the backorder costs. The manufacturer has only one processor which is time shared among the M products. Production changeover from one product to another entails a fixed setup cost and a fixed set up time. Each unit of a product has a production time. Considering the cost components, and assuming transportation time and cost to be negligible, the objective of the study is to minimize the expected total cost considering both the manufacturer and retailer. In the process two aspects are to be defined. Firstly, every time a product is taken up for production, how much of it (production batch size, q) should be produced. Considering a large value of q favors the manufacturer while a small value of q suits the retailers. Secondly, for a given batch size q, at what level of retailer's inventory (production queuing point), the batch size S of a product be taken up for production by the manufacturer. A higher value of S incurs more holding cost whereas a lower value of S increases the chance of backorder. A tradeoff between the holding and backorder cost must be taken into consideration while choosing an optimal value of S. It may be noted that due to multiple products and single processor, a product `taken' up for production may not get the processor immediately, and may have to wait in a queue. The `S

  10. Modeling Green Infrastructure Land Use Changes on Future Air Quality—Case Study in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Bash, J. O.; Roselle, S. J.; Gilliland, A. B.; Shatas, A.; DeYoung, R.; Piziali, J.

    2016-12-01

    Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). We found that the average 2-meter temperatures (T2) during summer (June, July and August) are projected to slightly decrease over the downtown of KC and slightly increase over the newly developed regions surrounding the urban core. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height changes are consistent with the T2 changes: the PBL height is somewhat lowered over the downtown and raised over the newly developed areas. We also saw relatively small decreases in O3 in the downtown area for the mean of all hours as well as for the maximum 8 hour average (MDA8), corresponding with the changes in T2 and PBL height. However, we also found relatively small PM2.5 concentration increases over KC, especially

  11. An optimisation methodology of artificial neural network models for predicting solar radiation: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezrazi, Ahmed; Hanini, Salah; Laidi, Maamar

    2016-02-01

    The right design and the high efficiency of solar energy systems require accurate information on the availability of solar radiation. Due to the cost of purchase and maintenance of the radiometers, these data are not readily available. Therefore, there is a need to develop alternative ways of generating such data. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are excellent and effective tools for learning, pinpointing or generalising data regularities, as they have the ability to model nonlinear functions; they can also cope with complex `noisy' data. The main objective of this paper is to show how to reach an optimal model of ANNs for applying in prediction of solar radiation. The measured data of the year 2007 in Ghardaïa city (Algeria) are used to demonstrate the optimisation methodology. The performance evaluation and the comparison of results of ANN models with measured data are made on the basis of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). It is found that MAPE in the ANN optimal model reaches 1.17 %. Also, this model yields a root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.06 % and an MBE of 0.12. The accuracy of the outputs exceeded 97 % and reached up 99.29 %. Results obtained indicate that the optimisation strategy satisfies practical requirements. It can successfully be generalised for any location in the world and be used in other fields than solar radiation estimation.

  12. Parametric and Nonparametric Empirical Regression Models: Case Study of Copper Bromide Laser Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Gocheva-Ilieva

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to model the output laser power of a copper bromide laser with wavelengths of 510.6 and 578.2 nm we have applied two regression techniques—multiple linear regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines. The models have been constructed on the basis of PCA factors for historical data. The influence of first- and second-order interactions between predictors has been taken into account. The models are easily interpreted and have good prediction power, which is established from the results of their validation. The comparison of the derived models shows that these based on multivariate adaptive regression splines have an advantage over the others. The obtained results allow for the clarification of relationships between laser generation and the observed laser input variables, for better determining their influence on laser generation, in order to improve the experimental setup and laser production technology. They can be useful for evaluation of known experiments as well as for prediction of future experiments. The developed modeling methodology is also applicable for a wide range of similar laser devices—metal vapor lasers and gas lasers.

  13. Dynamic Models Applied to Landslides: Study Case Angangueo, MICHOACÁN, MÉXICO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres Fernandez, L.; Hernández Madrigal, V. M., , Dr; Capra, L.; Domínguez Mota, F. J., , Dr

    2017-12-01

    Most existing models for landslide zonification are static type, do not consider the dynamic behavior of the trigger factor. This results in a limited representation of the actual zonation of slope instability, present a short-term validity, cańt be applied for the design of early warning systems, etc. Particularly in Mexico, these models are static because they do not consider triggering factor such as precipitation. In this work, we present a numerical evaluation to know the landslide susceptibility, based on probabilistic methods. Which are based on the generation of time series, which are generated from the meteorological stations, having limited information an interpolation is made to generate the simulation of the precipitation in the zone. The obtained information is integrated in PCRaster and in conjunction with the conditioning factors it is possible to generate a dynamic model. This model will be applied for landslide zoning in the municipality of Angangueo, characterized by frequent logging of debris and mud flow, translational and rotational landslides, detonated by atypical precipitations, such as those recorded in 2010. These caused economic losses and humans. With these models, it would be possible to generate probable scenarios that help the Angangueo's population to reduce the risks and to carry out actions of constant resilience activities.

  14. A Proposed Model for Examining the Organizational Readiness Assessment of Information Systems Development: A case study of a public university

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Lagzian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The findings of several prior studies indicate high failure rate of Information systems implementation projects in different organizations. These studies also point to the fact that many of these failures are as a result of organizational issues as well as not paying attention to current situation of the organization in early stages of Information system development, rather than technical issues. In other words, successful implementation of an information system is directly depending on current situation of the organization. Considering high needed investment for implementing an information system project, it seems to be necessary to assess its current organizational readiness level. In this study, on the basis of a comprehensive reviewing various relevant models of readiness assessment for information systems development has been attempted to present a model about the existing realities and internal circumstances in public sector organizations and institutions emphasizing on universities and higher education institutions. Based on proposed model, to assess organizational readiness, six major dimensions (Strategic, Structural, Resources, Cultural, Managerial, and Legal were identified from the literature which was divided into 47 sub-dimensions and 142 indicators. The identified indicators can be used to assess organizational readiness in order to facilitate a purposeful and appropriate information system development and consequently to prevent the waste of organizational resources. The proposed model also was used in a public university as a case with the aim of determination of organizational readiness level, and finally several action plans were suggested based on the obtained research results.

  15. Application of GRAM model for estimating groundwater rebound after mine closure: a case study at abandoned underground mines in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yosoon; Baek, Jieun; Kim, Dukmin

    2017-04-01

    Cessation of dewatering usually results in groundwater rebound after closing an underground mine because the mine voids and surrounding strata flood up to the levels of decant points such as shafts and drifts. The objective of this study was to develop a program for analyzing groundwater rebound in abandoned underground mines. Several numerical models have been developed to predict the timing, magnitude and location of discharges resulting from groundwater rebound. This study reviewed the numerical models such as MODFLOW, GRAM and MINEDW, and compares their scopes of assessment at different spatial and time scales. In addition, a GRAM(Groundwater Rebound in Abandoned Mine workings) model-based program, named GRAM for Windows, was developed using Visual Studio.NET 2012. The program, GRAM for Windows, is comprised of the graphic user interface and the simulation engine modules. Input and output files of the program were designed by considering the characteristics of GRAM model. Some case studies were performed to analyze groundwater rebound at abandoned underground mines in Korea. The comparisons of simulated and observed groundwater levels at the shaft of underground mine showed that the developed program can be used effectively to analyze and estimate the groundwater rebound in the abandoned underground mine.

  16. Can the business model of Handelsbanken be an archetype for small and medium sized banks? A comparative case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kousgaard Larsen, Morten; Lange Nissen, Jacob; Lueg, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    The Danish Banking sector faces increasing requirements regarding regulation and profitability, which especially threatens small- and medium sized banks. This study analyzes whether the successful business model of Handelsbanken (‘The Handelsbanken Way’) to banking in regard to the needed...... strengthening of the financial and non-financial position can serve as a blueprint for small- and medium sized banks. We conduct a comparative case study by interviewing Handelsbanken and the disguised ‘Danish Local Bank’ (DLB), where the DLB is a representative example of a small- and medium sized Danish bank...... advantages of ‘The Handelsbanken Way’, this study suggests that the financially troubled small- and medium sized banks in Denmark will not necessarily benefit from the tactical choice of decentralization unless they incorporate specific adjustments. This study contribute to the existing theory concerning...

  17. Challenges encountered when expanding activated sludge models: a case study based on N2O production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snip, Laura; Boiocchi, Riccardo; Flores Alsina, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    It is common practice in wastewater engineering to extend standard activated sludge models (ASMs) with extra process equations derived from batch experiments. However, such experiments have often been performed under conditions different from the ones normally found in wastewater treatment plants......-scale activated sludge plant. Finally, the simulation results show large differences in oxygen uptake rates, nitritation rates and consequently the quantity of N2O emission (G(N2O)) using the different models......It is common practice in wastewater engineering to extend standard activated sludge models (ASMs) with extra process equations derived from batch experiments. However, such experiments have often been performed under conditions different from the ones normally found in wastewater treatment plants...

  18. OPEN INNOVATION MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF PLAYING POKER WITH CHESS PIECES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goduscheit, René Chester; Jørgensen, Jacob Høj; Bergenholtz, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    tomore closed ones are not extensively explored in the literature. This paperaddresses these organisational challenges. On the basis of an in-depth casestudy of a project from the Danish energy sector, two prominent approacheswithin the open innovation paradigm, user-driven and network......-basedinnovation, are discussed. The analysis indicates that the organisationsinvolved in the project are only implementing the open innovation models to alimited degree. While indicating that they are employing open innovationapproaches, they are actually operating within a traditional, closed innovationmindset and to a certain......The qualities of employing open innovation models are widely acknowledgedamong academics and practitioners. Open innovation is perceived as a meansto ensure flexibility and create options for future business. However, theorganisational challenges in employing open innovation models as opposed...

  19. Application of Activated Sludge Model No. 1 to biological treatment of pure winery effluents: case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, A E; Racault, Y

    2005-01-01

    The practical applicability of computer simulation of aerobic biological treatment systems for winery effluents was investigated to enhance traditional on-site evaluation of new processes. As there is no existing modelling tool for pure winery effluent, a model widely used for municipal activated sludge (ASM1) was used. The calibration and validation steps were performed on extended on-site data. The global soluble COD, DO and OUR were properly reproduced. Possible causes for the remaining discrepancies between measured and simulated data were identified and suggestions for improvement directions were made to adapt ASM1 to winery effluents. The calibrated model was then used to simulate scenarios to evaluate the plant behaviour for different operation or design. In combination with on-site observations, it allowed us to establish useful and justified improvement suggestions for aeration tank and aeration device design as well as feed, draw and aeration operation.

  20. A mathematical model for municipal solid waste management - A case study in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C K M; Yeung, C L; Xiong, Z R; Chung, S H

    2016-12-01

    With the booming economy and increasing population, the accumulation of waste has become an increasingly arduous issue and has aroused the attention from all sectors of society. Hong Kong which has a relative high daily per capita domestic waste generation rate in Asia has not yet established a comprehensive waste management system. This paper conducts a review of waste management approaches and models. Researchers highlight that mathematical models provide useful information for decision-makers to select appropriate choices and save cost. It is suggested to consider municipal solid waste management in a holistic view and improve the utilization of waste management infrastructures. A mathematical model which adopts integer linear programming and mixed integer programming has been developed for Hong Kong municipal solid waste management. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to simulate different scenarios which provide decision-makers important information for establishing Hong Kong waste management system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with approximate bayesian computation: influenza as a case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Ratmann

    Full Text Available A key priority in infectious disease research is to understand the ecological and evolutionary drivers of viral diseases from data on disease incidence as well as viral genetic and antigenic variation. We propose using a simulation-based, Bayesian method known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC to fit and assess phylodynamic models that simulate pathogen evolution and ecology against summaries of these data. We illustrate the versatility of the method by analyzing two spatial models describing the phylodynamics of interpandemic human influenza virus subtype A(H3N2. The first model captures antigenic drift phenomenologically with continuously waning immunity, and the second epochal evolution model describes the replacement of major, relatively long-lived antigenic clusters. Combining features of long-term surveillance data from The Netherlands with features of influenza A (H3N2 hemagglutinin gene sequences sampled in northern Europe, key phylodynamic parameters can be estimated with ABC. Goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the irregularity in interannual incidence and H3N2's ladder-like hemagglutinin phylogeny are quantitatively only reproduced under the epochal evolution model within a spatial context. However, the concomitant incidence dynamics result in a very