WorldWideScience

Sample records for models additionally adjusting

  1. On adjustment for auxiliary covariates in additive hazard models for the analysis of randomized experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vansteelandt, S.; Martinussen, Torben; Tchetgen, E. J Tchetgen

    2014-01-01

    We consider additive hazard models (Aalen, 1989) for the effect of a randomized treatment on a survival outcome, adjusting for auxiliary baseline covariates. We demonstrate that the Aalen least-squares estimator of the treatment effect parameter is asymptotically unbiased, even when the hazard...... that, in view of its robustness against model misspecification, Aalen least-squares estimation is attractive for evaluating treatment effects on a survival outcome in randomized experiments, and the primary reasons to consider baseline covariate adjustment in such settings could be interest in subgroup......'s dependence on time or on the auxiliary covariates is misspecified, and even away from the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. We furthermore show that adjustment for auxiliary baseline covariates does not change the asymptotic variance of the estimator of the effect of a randomized treatment. We conclude...

  2. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  3. Convexity Adjustments for ATS Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murgoci, Agatha; Gaspar, Raquel M.

    . As a result we classify convexity adjustments into forward adjustments and swaps adjustments. We, then, focus on affine term structure (ATS) models and, in this context, conjecture convexity adjustments should be related of affine functionals. In the case of forward adjustments, we show how to obtain exact...

  4. Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C

    2016-08-15

    Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Adjustment Criterion and Algorithm in Adjustment Model with Uncertain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SONG Yingchun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty often exists in the process of obtaining measurement data, which affects the reliability of parameter estimation. This paper establishes a new adjustment model in which uncertainty is incorporated into the function model as a parameter. A new adjustment criterion and its iterative algorithm are given based on uncertainty propagation law in the residual error, in which the maximum possible uncertainty is minimized. This paper also analyzes, with examples, the different adjustment criteria and features of optimal solutions about the least-squares adjustment, the uncertainty adjustment and total least-squares adjustment. Existing error theory is extended with new observational data processing method about uncertainty.

  6. Model Additional Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rockwood, Laura

    2001-01-01

    Since the end of the cold war a series of events has changed the circumstances and requirements of the safeguards system. The discovery of a clandestine nuclear weapons program in Iraq, the continuing difficulty in verifying the initial report of Democratic People's Republic of Korea upon entry into force of their safeguards agreement, and the decision of the South African Government to give up its nuclear weapons program and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons have all played a role in an ambitious effort by IAEA Member States and the Secretariat to strengthen the safeguards system. A major milestone in this effort was reached in May 1997 when the IAEA Board of Governors approved a Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements. The Model Additional Protocol was negotiated over a period of less than a year by an open-ended committee of the Board involving some 70 Member States and two regional inspectorates. The IAEA is now in the process of negotiating additional protocols, State by State, and implementing them. These additional protocols will provide the IAEA with rights of access to information about all activities related to the use of nuclear material in States with comprehensive safeguards agreements and greatly expanded physical access for IAEA inspectors to confirm or verify this information. In conjunction with this, the IAEA is working on the integration of these measures with those provided for in comprehensive safeguards agreements, with a view to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency, within available resources, the implementation of safeguards. Details concerning the Model Additional Protocol are given. (author)

  7. Adjustment or updating of models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    25, Part 3, June 2000, pp. 235±245 ... While the model is defined in terms of these spatial parameters, ... discussed in terms of `model order' with concern focused on whether or not the ..... In other words, it is not easy to justify what the required.

  8. Adjustment model of thermoluminescence experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno y Moreno, A.; Moreno B, A.

    2002-01-01

    This model adjusts the experimental results for thermoluminescence according to the equation: I (T) = I (a i * exp (-1/b i * (T-C i )) where: a i , b i , c i are the i-Th peak adjusted to a gaussian curve. The adjustments of the curve can be operated manual or analytically using the macro function and the solver.xla complement installed previously in the computational system. In this work it is shown: 1. The information of experimental data from a LiF curve obtained from the Physics Institute of UNAM which the data adjustment model is operated in the macro type. 2. A LiF curve of four peaks obtained from Harshaw information simulated in Microsoft Excel, discussed in previous works, as a reference not in macro. (Author)

  9. Extendable linearised adjustment model for deformation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiddo Velsink

    2015-01-01

    Author supplied: "This paper gives a linearised adjustment model for the affine, similarity and congruence transformations in 3D that is easily extendable with other parameters to describe deformations. The model considers all coordinates stochastic. Full positive semi-definite covariance matrices

  10. Extendable linearised adjustment model for deformation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velsink, H.

    2015-01-01

    This paper gives a linearised adjustment model for the affine, similarity and congruence transformations in 3D that is easily extendable with other parameters to describe deformations. The model considers all coordinates stochastic. Full positive semi-definite covariance matrices and correlation

  11. Premium adjustment: actuarial analysis on epidemiological models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we analyse insurance premium adjustment in the context of an epidemiological model where the insurer's future financial liability is greater than the premium from patients. In this situation, it becomes extremely difficult for the insurer since a negative reserve would severely increase its risk of insolvency, ...

  12. OPEC model : adjustment or new model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, A.

    1994-01-01

    Since the early eighties, the international oil industry went through major changes : new financial markets, reintegration, opening of the upstream, liberalization of investments, privatization. This article provides answers to two major questions : what are the reasons for these changes ? ; do these changes announce the replacement of OPEC model by a new model in which state intervention is weaker and national companies more autonomous. This would imply a profound change of political and institutional systems of oil producing countries. (Author)

  13. The additive and interactive effects of parenting and temperament in predicting adjustment problems of children of divorce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengua, L J; Wolchik, S A; Sandler, I N; West, S G

    2000-06-01

    Investigated the interaction between parenting and temperament in predicting adjustment problems in children of divorce. The study utilized a sample of 231 mothers and children, 9 to 12 years old, who had experienced divorce within the previous 2 years. Both mothers' and children's reports on parenting, temperament, and adjustment variables were obtained and combined to create cross-reporter measures of the variables. Parenting and temperament were directly and independently related to outcomes consistent with an additive model of their effects. Significant interactions indicated that parental rejection was more strongly related to adjustment problems for children low in positive emotionality, and inconsistent discipline was more strongly related to adjustment problems for children high in impulsivity. These findings suggest that children who are high in impulsivity may be at greater risk for developing problems, whereas positive emotionality may operate as a protective factor, decreasing the risk of adjustment problems in response to negative parenting.

  14. Business models for additive manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hadar, Ronen; Bilberg, Arne; Bogers, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Digital fabrication — including additive manufacturing (AM), rapid prototyping and 3D printing — has the potential to revolutionize the way in which products are produced and delivered to the customer. Therefore, it challenges companies to reinvent their business model — describing the logic...... of creating and capturing value. In this paper, we explore the implications that AM technologies have for manufacturing systems in the new business models that they enable. In particular, we consider how a consumer goods manufacturer can organize the operations of a more open business model when moving from...... a manufacturer-centric to a consumer-centric value logic. A major shift includes a move from centralized to decentralized supply chains, where consumer goods manufacturers can implement a “hybrid” approach with a focus on localization and accessibility or develop a fully personalized model where the consumer...

  15. Player Modeling for Intelligent Difficulty Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missura, Olana; Gärtner, Thomas

    In this paper we aim at automatically adjusting the difficulty of computer games by clustering players into different types and supervised prediction of the type from short traces of gameplay. An important ingredient of video games is to challenge players by providing them with tasks of appropriate and increasing difficulty. How this difficulty should be chosen and increase over time strongly depends on the ability, experience, perception and learning curve of each individual player. It is a subjective parameter that is very difficult to set. Wrong choices can easily lead to players stopping to play the game as they get bored (if underburdened) or frustrated (if overburdened). An ideal game should be able to adjust its difficulty dynamically governed by the player’s performance. Modern video games utilise a game-testing process to investigate among other factors the perceived difficulty for a multitude of players. In this paper, we investigate how machine learning techniques can be used for automatic difficulty adjustment. Our experiments confirm the potential of machine learning in this application.

  16. Methodological aspects of journaling a dynamic adjusting entry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper expands the discussion of the importance and function of adjusting entries for loan receivables. Discussion of the cyclical development of adjusting entries, their negative impact on the business cycle and potential solutions has intensified during the financial crisis. These discussions are still ongoing and continue to be relevant to members of the professional public, banking regulators and representatives of international accounting institutions. The objective of this paper is to evaluate a method of journaling dynamic adjusting entries under current accounting law. It also expresses the authors’ opinions on the potential for consistently implementing basic accounting principles in journaling adjusting entries for loan receivables under a dynamic model.

  17. Husbands' perceptions of their wives' breast cancer coping efficacy: testing congruence models of adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merluzzi, Thomas V; Martinez Sanchez, MaryAnn

    2018-01-01

    Recent reviews have reinforced the notion that having a supportive spouse can help with the process of coping with and adjusting to cancer. Congruence between spouses' perspectives has been proposed as one mechanism in that process, yet alternative models of congruence have not been examined closely. This study assessed alternative models of congruence in perceptions of coping and their mediating effects on adjustment to breast cancer. Seventy-two women in treatment for breast cancer and their husbands completed measures of marital adjustment, self-efficacy for coping, and adjustment to cancer. Karnofsky Performance Status was obtained from medical records. Wives completed a measure of self-efficacy for coping (wives' ratings of self-efficacy for coping [WSEC]) and husbands completed a measure of self-efficacy for coping (husbands' ratings of wives' self-efficacy for coping [HSEC]) based on their perceptions of their wives' coping efficacy. Interestingly, the correlation between WSEC and HSEC was only 0.207; thus, they are relatively independent perspectives. The following three models were tested to determine the nature of the relationship between WSEC and HSEC: discrepancy model (WSEC - HSEC), additive model (WSEC + HSEC), and multiplicative model (WSEC × HSEC). The discrepancy model was not related to wives' adjustment; however, the additive ( B =0.205, P <0.001) and multiplicative ( B =0.001, P <0.001) models were significantly related to wives' adjustment. Also, the additive model mediated the relationship between performance status and adjustment. Husbands' perception of their wives' coping efficacy contributed marginally to their wives' adjustment, and the combination of WSEC and HSEC mediated the relationship between functional status and wives' adjustment, thus positively impacting wives' adjustment to cancer. Future research is needed to determine the quality of the differences between HSEC and WSEC in order to develop interventions to optimize the

  18. 26 CFR 1.6655-7 - Addition to tax on account of excessive adjustment under section 6425.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional... section 6655(a) for failure to pay estimated income tax, the excessive adjustment under section 6425 is... section 6425. (a) Section 6655(h) imposes an addition to the tax under chapter 1 of the Internal Revenue...

  19. Storm Water Management Model Climate Adjustment Tool (SWMM-CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s newest tool, the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) – Climate Adjustment Tool (CAT) is meant to help municipal stormwater utilities better address potential climate change impacts affecting their operations. SWMM, first released in 1971, models hydrology and hydrauli...

  20. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  1. Parenting Stress, Mental Health, Dyadic Adjustment: A Structural Equation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Rollè

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In the 1st year of the post-partum period, parenting stress, mental health, and dyadic adjustment are important for the wellbeing of both parents and the child. However, there are few studies that analyze the relationship among these three dimensions. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between parenting stress, mental health (depressive and anxiety symptoms, and dyadic adjustment among first-time parents.Method: We studied 268 parents (134 couples of healthy babies. At 12 months post-partum, both parents filled out, in a counterbalanced order, the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form, the Edinburgh Post-natal Depression Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the potential mediating effects of mental health on the relationship between parenting stress and dyadic adjustment.Results: Results showed the full mediation effect of mental health between parenting stress and dyadic adjustment. A multi-group analysis further found that the paths did not differ across mothers and fathers.Discussion: The results suggest that mental health is an important dimension that mediates the relationship between parenting stress and dyadic adjustment in the transition to parenthood.

  2. Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Spencer

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.

  3. Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : sunshine number * nowcasting * generalized additive model * Markov chain Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.469, year: 2014

  4. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  5. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  6. A Four-Part Model of Autonomy during Emerging Adulthood: Associations with Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamborn, Susie D.; Groh, Kelly

    2009-01-01

    We found support for a four-part model of autonomy that links connectedness, separation, detachment, and agency to adjustment during emerging adulthood. Based on self-report surveys of 285 American college students, expected associations among the autonomy variables were found. In addition, agency, as measured by self-reliance, predicted lower…

  7. Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing of AZ31 Magnesium Alloy: Grain Refinement by Adjusting Pulse Frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM offers a potential approach to fabricate large-scale magnesium alloy components with low cost and high efficiency, although this topic is yet to be reported in literature. In this study, WAAM is preliminarily applied to fabricate AZ31 magnesium. Fully dense AZ31 magnesium alloy components are successfully obtained. Meanwhile, to refine grains and obtain good mechanical properties, the effects of pulse frequency (1, 2, 5, 10, 100, and 500 Hz on the macrostructure, microstructure and tensile properties are investigated. The results indicate that pulse frequency can result in the change of weld pool oscillations and cooling rate. This further leads to the change of the grain size, grain shape, as well as the tensile properties. Meanwhile, due to the resonance of the weld pool at 5 Hz and 10 Hz, the samples have poor geometry accuracy but contain finer equiaxed grains (21 μm and exhibit higher ultimate tensile strength (260 MPa and yield strength (102 MPa, which are similar to those of the forged AZ31 alloy. Moreover, the elongation of all samples is above 23%.

  8. Additive action model for mixed irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, G.K.Y.

    1984-01-01

    Recent experimental results indicate that a mixture of high and low LET radiation may have some beneficial features (such as lower OER but with skin sparing) for clinical use, and interest has been renewed in the study of mixtures of high and low LET radiation. Several standard radiation inactivation models can readily accommodate interaction between two mixed radiations, however, this is usually handled by postulating extra free parameters, which can only be determined by fitting to experimental data. A model without any free parameter is proposed to explain the biological effect of mixed radiations, based on the following two assumptions: (a) The combined biological action due to two radiations is additive, assuming no repair has taken place during the interval between the two irradiations; and (b) The initial physical damage induced by radiation develops into final biological effect (e.g. cell killing) over a relatively long period (hours) after irradiation. This model has been shown to provide satisfactory fit to the experiment results of previous studies

  9. Computational Process Modeling for Additive Manufacturing (OSU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagg, Stacey; Zhang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Powder-Bed Additive Manufacturing (AM) through Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS) or Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is being used by NASA and the Aerospace industry to "print" parts that traditionally are very complex, high cost, or long schedule lead items. The process spreads a thin layer of metal powder over a build platform, then melts the powder in a series of welds in a desired shape. The next layer of powder is applied, and the process is repeated until layer-by-layer, a very complex part can be built. This reduces cost and schedule by eliminating very complex tooling and processes traditionally used in aerospace component manufacturing. To use the process to print end-use items, NASA seeks to understand SLM material well enough to develop a method of qualifying parts for space flight operation. Traditionally, a new material process takes many years and high investment to generate statistical databases and experiential knowledge, but computational modeling can truncate the schedule and cost -many experiments can be run quickly in a model, which would take years and a high material cost to run empirically. This project seeks to optimize material build parameters with reduced time and cost through modeling.

  10. An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abate, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    ...) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform...

  11. When there is more than a cleft: psychological adjustment when a cleft is associated with an additional condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie

    2014-01-01

    In spite of studies reporting a relatively high frequency of additional conditions in children with a cleft lip and/or cleft palate (CL/P), almost no research has focused on this clinically important subgroup. The objective of this study was to compare psychosocial adjustment in children with CL/P with and without an additional condition. Cross-sectional data based on routine psychological assessments at age 10 years, with comparisons to national reference groups. Centralized treatment, Norway. Two hundred five children with CL/P (participation rate: 80.1%) from three consecutive birth cohorts. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (self-report and parent report) and the Child Experience Questionnaire (self-report). Eighty-one children (39.5%) were identified as having at least one condition in addition to the cleft. These children reported significantly more psychosocial difficulties than children with a cleft alone. Differences between specific conditions were minor. Children with a cleft alone (n = 124) reported mean scores that were comparable to those reported by the reference group. There were no differences in adjustment between children with a visible versus a non-visible cleft. The present study highlights the need for research to be conducted in children with CL/P who have additional conditions to provide better knowledge and clinical care for a potentially vulnerable subgroup of children and their parents.

  12. A ¤flexible additive multiplicative hazard model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Scheike, T. H.

    2002-01-01

    Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect......Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect...

  13. Capital Structure: Target Adjustment Model and a Mediation Moderation Model with Capital Structure as Mediator

    OpenAIRE

    Abedmajid, Mohammed

    2015-01-01

    This study consists of two models. Model one is conducted to check if there is a target adjustment toward optimal capital structure, in the context of Turkish firm listed on the stock market, over the period 2003-2014. Model 2 captures the interaction between firm size, profitability, market value and capital structure using the moderation mediation model. The results of model 1 have shown that there is a partial adjustment of the capital structure to reach target levels. The results of...

  14. Emotional closeness to parents and grandparents: A moderated mediation model predicting adolescent adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attar-Schwartz, Shalhevet

    2015-09-01

    Warm and emotionally close relationships with parents and grandparents have been found in previous studies to be linked with better adolescent adjustment. The present study, informed by Family Systems Theory and Intergenerational Solidarity Theory, uses a moderated mediation model analyzing the contribution of the dynamics of these intergenerational relationships to adolescent adjustment. Specifically, it examines the mediating role of emotional closeness to the closest grandparent in the relationship between emotional closeness to a parent (the offspring of the closest grandparent) and adolescent adjustment difficulties. The model also examines the moderating role of emotional closeness to parents in the relationship between emotional closeness to grandparents and adjustment difficulties. The study was based on a sample of 1,405 Jewish Israeli secondary school students (ages 12-18) who completed a structured questionnaire. It was found that emotional closeness to the closest grandparent was more strongly associated with reduced adjustment difficulties among adolescents with higher levels of emotional closeness to their parents. In addition, adolescent adjustment and emotional closeness to parents was partially mediated by emotional closeness to grandparents. Examining the family conditions under which adolescents' relationships with grandparents is stronger and more beneficial for them can help elucidate variations in grandparent-grandchild ties and expand our understanding of the mechanisms that shape child outcomes. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Model for Adjustment of Aggregate Forecasts using Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taracena–Sanz L. F.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This research suggests a contribution in the implementation of forecasting models. The proposed model is developed with the aim to fit the projection of demand to surroundings of firms, and this is based on three considerations that cause that in many cases the forecasts of the demand are different from reality, such as: 1 one of the problems most difficult to model in the forecasts is the uncertainty related to the information available; 2 the methods traditionally used by firms for the projection of demand mainly are based on past behavior of the market (historical demand; and 3 these methods do not consider in their analysis the factors that are influencing so that the observed behaviour occurs. Therefore, the proposed model is based on the implementation of Fuzzy Logic, integrating the main variables that affect the behavior of market demand, and which are not considered in the classical statistical methods. The model was applied to a bottling of carbonated beverages, and with the adjustment of the projection of demand a more reliable forecast was obtained.

  16. A Unified Model of Geostrophic Adjustment and Frontogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, John; Shakespeare, Callum

    2013-11-01

    Fronts, or regions with strong horizontal density gradients, are ubiquitous and dynamically important features of the ocean and atmosphere. In the ocean, fronts are associated with enhanced air-sea fluxes, turbulence, and biological productivity, while atmospheric fronts are associated with some of the most extreme weather events. Here, we describe a new mathematical framework for describing the formation of fronts, or frontogenesis. This framework unifies two classical problems in geophysical fluid dynamics, geostrophic adjustment and strain-driven frontogenesis, and provides a number of important extensions beyond previous efforts. The model solutions closely match numerical simulations during the early stages of frontogenesis, and provide a means to describe the development of turbulence at mature fronts.

  17. PERMINTAAN BERAS DI PROVINSI JAMBI (Penerapan Partial Adjustment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasi Riyanto

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of price of rice, flour prices, population, income of population and demand of rice for a year earlier on rice demand, demand rice elasticity and rice demand prediction in Jambi Province. This study uses secondary data, including time series data for 22 years from 1988 until 2009. The study used some variables, consist of rice demand (Qdt, the price of rice (Hb, the price of wheat flour (Hg, population (Jp, the income of the population (PDRB and demand for rice the previous year (Qdt-1. The make of this study are multiple regression and dynamic analysis a Partial Adjustment Model, where the demand for rice is the dependent variable and the price of rice, flour prices, population, income population and demand of rice last year was the independent variable. Partial Adjustment Model analysis results showed that the effect of changes in prices of rice and flour are not significant to changes in demand for rice. The population and demand of rice the previous year has positive and significant impact on demand for rice, while revenues have negative and significant population of rice demand. Variable price of rice, earning population and the price of flour is inelastic the demand of rice, because rice is not a normal good but as a necessity so that there is no substitution of goods (replacement of rice with other commodities in Jambi Province. Based on the analysis, it is recommended to the government to be able to control the rate of population increase given the variable number of people as one of the factors that affect demand for rice.It is expected that the government also began to socialize in a lifestyle of non-rice food consumption to control the increasing amount of demand for rice. Last suggestion, the government developed a diversification of staple foods other than rice.

  18. An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  19. Concentration addition, independent action and generalized concentration addition models for mixture effect prediction of sex hormone synthesis in vitro.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels Hadrup

    Full Text Available Humans are concomitantly exposed to numerous chemicals. An infinite number of combinations and doses thereof can be imagined. For toxicological risk assessment the mathematical prediction of mixture effects, using knowledge on single chemicals, is therefore desirable. We investigated pros and cons of the concentration addition (CA, independent action (IA and generalized concentration addition (GCA models. First we measured effects of single chemicals and mixtures thereof on steroid synthesis in H295R cells. Then single chemical data were applied to the models; predictions of mixture effects were calculated and compared to the experimental mixture data. Mixture 1 contained environmental chemicals adjusted in ratio according to human exposure levels. Mixture 2 was a potency adjusted mixture containing five pesticides. Prediction of testosterone effects coincided with the experimental Mixture 1 data. In contrast, antagonism was observed for effects of Mixture 2 on this hormone. The mixtures contained chemicals exerting only limited maximal effects. This hampered prediction by the CA and IA models, whereas the GCA model could be used to predict a full dose response curve. Regarding effects on progesterone and estradiol, some chemicals were having stimulatory effects whereas others had inhibitory effects. The three models were not applicable in this situation and no predictions could be performed. Finally, the expected contributions of single chemicals to the mixture effects were calculated. Prochloraz was the predominant but not sole driver of the mixtures, suggesting that one chemical alone was not responsible for the mixture effects. In conclusion, the GCA model seemed to be superior to the CA and IA models for the prediction of testosterone effects. A situation with chemicals exerting opposing effects, for which the models could not be applied, was identified. In addition, the data indicate that in non-potency adjusted mixtures the effects cannot

  20. Permintaan Beras di Provinsi Jambi (Penerapan Partial Adjustment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasi Riyanto

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of price of rice, flour prices, population, income of population and demand of rice for a year earlier on rice demand, demand rice elasticity and rice demand prediction in Jambi Province. This study uses secondary data, including time series data for 22 years from 1988 until 2009. The study used some variables, consist of rice demand (Qdt, the price of rice (Hb, the price of wheat flour (Hg, population (Jp, the income of the population (PDRB and demand for rice the previous year (Qdt-1. The make of this study are multiple regression and dynamic analysis  a Partial Adjustment Model, where the demand for rice is the dependent variable and the price of rice, flour prices, population, income population and demand of rice last year was the independent variable. Partial Adjustment Model analysis results showed that the effect of changes in prices of rice  and flour are not significant  to  changes in demand for rice. The population and demand of rice the previous year has positive and significant impact on demand for rice, while revenues have negative and significant population of rice demand. Variable price of rice, earning population and the price of flour is inelastic the demand of rice, because rice is not a normal good but as a necessity so that there is no substitution of goods (replacement of rice with other commodities in Jambi Province. Based on the analysis, it is recommended to the government to be able to control the rate of population increase given the variable number of people as one of the factors that affect demand for rice.It is expected that the  government also began  to  socialize  in a lifestyle  of  non-rice food consumption to control the increasing amount of demand for rice. Last suggestion, the government developed a diversification of staple foods other than rice. Keywords: Demand, Rice, Income Population

  1. Adjusting the Adjusted X[superscript 2]/df Ratio Statistic for Dichotomous Item Response Theory Analyses: Does the Model Fit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, Louis; Drasgow, Fritz

    2012-01-01

    Two Monte Carlo simulation studies investigated the effectiveness of the mean adjusted X[superscript 2]/df statistic proposed by Drasgow and colleagues and, because of problems with the method, a new approach for assessing the goodness of fit of an item response theory model was developed. It has been previously recommended that mean adjusted…

  2. Disaster Hits Home: A Model of Displaced Family Adjustment after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget; Marlatt, Holly

    2011-01-01

    The authors explored individual and family adjustment processes among parents (n = 30) and children (n = 55) who were displaced to Colorado after Hurricane Katrina. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 23 families, this article offers an inductive model of displaced family adjustment. Four stages of family adjustment are presented in the model: (a)…

  3. Capital adjustment cost and bias in income based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

    OpenAIRE

    Yoseph Yilma Getachew; Keshab Bhattarai; Parantap Basu

    2012-01-01

    The fixed effects (FE) estimator of "conditional convergence" in income based dynamic panel models could be biased downward when capital adjustment cost is present. Such a capital adjustment cost means a rising marginal cost of investment which could slow down the convergence. The standard FE regression fails to take into account of this capital adjustment cost and thus it could overestimate the rate of convergence. Using a Ramsey model with long-run adjustment cost of capital, we characteriz...

  4. Adjustment costs in a two-capital growth model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duczynski, Petr

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 5 (2002), s. 837-850 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK9058117 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : adjustment costs * capital mobility * convergence * human capital Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.738, year: 2002

  5. Additive model for thermal comfort generated by matrix experiment using orthogonal array

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Reuy-Lung [Department of Occupational Safety and Health, China Medical University, 91 Huseh-shin Road, Taichung 404 (China); Lin, Tzu-Ping [Department of Leisure Planning, National Formosa University, 64 Wen-hua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 632 (China); Liang, Han-Hsi [Department of Architecture, National United University, No. 1, Lien Da, Kung-Ching Li, Miaoli 360 (China); Yang, Kuan-Hsiug; Yeh, Tsung-Chyn [Department of Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Engineering, National Sun Yet-Sen University, No. 91, Lien-hai Road, Kaohsiung (China)

    2009-08-15

    In addition to ensuring the thermal comfort of occupants, monitoring and controlling indoor thermal environments can reduce the energy consumed by air conditioning systems. This study develops an additive model for predicting thermal comfort with rapid and simple arithmetic calculations. The advantage of the additive model is its comprehensibility to administrators of air conditioning systems, who are unfamiliar with the PMV-PPD model but want to adjust an indoor environment to save energy without generating complaints of discomfort from occupants. In order to generate the additive model, a laboratory chamber experiment based on matrix experiment using orthogonal array, was performed. By applying the analysis of variance on observed thermal sensation votes and percentage of dissatisfaction, the factor effects of environmental variables that account for the additive model were determined. Additionally, the applicability of the PMV-PPD model in hot and humid climates is discussed in this study, based on experimental results. (author)

  6. Player Modeling Using HOSVD towards Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment in Videogames

    OpenAIRE

    Anagnostou , Kostas; Maragoudakis , Manolis

    2012-01-01

    Part 3: Second International Workshop on Computational Intelligence in Software Engineering (CISE 2012); International audience; In this work, we propose and evaluate a Higher Order Singular Value Decomposition (HOSVD) of a tensor as a means to classify player behavior and adjust game difficulty dynamically. Applying this method to player data collected during a plethora of game sessions resulted in a reduction of the dimensionality of the classification problem and a robust classification of...

  7. Structural Adjustment Policy Experiments: The Use of Philippine CGE Models

    OpenAIRE

    Cororaton, Caesar B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews the general structure of the following general computable general equilibrium (CGE): the APEX model, Habito’s second version of the PhilCGE model, Cororaton’s CGE model and Bautista’s first CGE model. These models are chosen as they represent the range of recently constructed CGE models of the Philippine economy. They also represent two schools of thought in CGE modeling: the well defined neoclassical, Walrasian, general equilibrium school where the market-clearing variable...

  8. Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

  9. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    exchange parameter differs by only 3% from the baseline value and has little impact (- 0.1 %) on the cost function. The particulate inorganic to organic carbon ratio was increased more than threefold and reduced the cost function by 22% relative to the baseline integration, indicating a significant influence of biology on air-sea gas exchange. The largest contribution to cost reduction (35%) comes from the adjustment of initial conditions. In addition to reducing biases relative to observations, the adjusted simulation exhibits smaller model drift than the baseline. We estimate drift by integrating the model with repeated 2009 atmospheric forcing for seven years and find a volume-weighted drift reduction of, for example, 12.5% for nitrate and 30% for oxygen in the top 300 m. Although there remain several regions with large model-data discrepancies, for example, overly strong carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, the adjusted simulation is a first step towards a more accurate representation of the ocean carbon cycle at high spatial and temporal resolution.

  10. Modeling of an Adjustable Beam Solid State Light

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal is for the development of a computational model of a prototype variable beam light source using optical modeling software, Zemax OpticStudio ®. The...

  11. Utilizing Visual Effects Software for Efficient and Flexible Isostatic Adjustment Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meldgaard, A.; Nielsen, L.; Iaffaldano, G.

    2017-12-01

    The isostatic adjustment signal generated by transient ice sheet loading is an important indicator of past ice sheet extent and the rheological constitution of the interior of the Earth. Finite element modelling has proved to be a very useful tool in these studies. We present a simple numerical model for 3D visco elastic Earth deformation and a new approach to the design of such models utilizing visual effects software designed for the film and game industry. The software package Houdini offers an assortment of optimized tools and libraries which greatly facilitate the creation of efficient numerical algorithms. In particular, we make use of Houdini's procedural work flow, the SIMD programming language VEX, Houdini's sparse matrix creation and inversion libraries, an inbuilt tetrahedralizer for grid creation, and the user interface, which facilitates effortless manipulation of 3D geometry. We mitigate many of the time consuming steps associated with the authoring of efficient algorithms from scratch while still keeping the flexibility that may be lost with the use of commercial dedicated finite element programs. We test the efficiency of the algorithm by comparing simulation times with off-the-shelf solutions from the Abaqus software package. The algorithm is tailored for the study of local isostatic adjustment patterns, in close vicinity to present ice sheet margins. In particular, we wish to examine possible causes for the considerable spatial differences in the uplift magnitude which are apparent from field observations in these areas. Such features, with spatial scales of tens of kilometres, are not resolvable with current global isostatic adjustment models, and may require the inclusion of local topographic features. We use the presented algorithm to study a near field area where field observations are abundant, namely, Disko Bay in West Greenland with the intention of constraining Earth parameters and ice thickness. In addition, we assess how local

  12. An Additive-Multiplicative Restricted Mean Residual Life Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansourvar, Zahra; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    mean residual life model to study the association between the restricted mean residual life function and potential regression covariates in the presence of right censoring. This model extends the proportional mean residual life model using an additive model as its covariate dependent baseline....... For the suggested model, some covariate effects are allowed to be time-varying. To estimate the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the large sample properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, to assess the adequacy of the model, we investigate a goodness...

  13. Process chain modeling and selection in an additive manufacturing context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Mary Kathryn; Stolfi, Alessandro; Mischkot, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a new two-dimensional approach to modeling manufacturing process chains. This approach is used to consider the role of additive manufacturing technologies in process chains for a part with micro scale features and no internal geometry. It is shown that additive manufacturing...... evolving fields like additive manufacturing....

  14. A Comparative Study of CAPM and Seven Factors Risk Adjusted Return Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madiha Riaz Bhatti

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is a comparison and contrast of the predictive powers of two asset pricing models: CAPM and seven factor risk-return adjusted model, to explain the cross section of stock rate of returns in the financial sector listed at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE. To test the models daily returns from January 2013 to February 2014 have been taken and the excess returns of portfolios are regressed on explanatory variables. The results of the tested models indicate that the models are valid and applicable in the financial market of Pakistan during the period under study, as the intercepts are not significantly different from zero. It is consequently established from the findings that all the explanatory variables explain the stock returns in the financial sector of KSE. In addition, the results of this study show that addition of more explanatory variables to the single factor CAPM results in reasonably high values of R2. These results provide substantial support to fund managers, investors and financial analysts in making investment decisions.

  15. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  16. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  17. Spherical Model Integrating Academic Competence with Social Adjustment and Psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Earl S.; And Others

    This study replicates and elaborates a three-dimensional, spherical model that integrates research findings concerning social and emotional behavior, psychopathology, and academic competence. Kindergarten teachers completed an extensive set of rating scales on 100 children, including the Classroom Behavior Inventory and the Child Adaptive Behavior…

  18. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  19. An Efficient Bundle Adjustment Model Based on Parallax Parametrization for Environmental Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, R.; Sun, Y. Y.; Lei, Y.

    2017-12-01

    With the rapid development of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), more and more research fields have been successfully equipped with this mature technology, among which is environmental monitoring. One difficult task is how to acquire accurate position of ground object in order to reconstruct the scene more accurate. To handle this problem, we combine bundle adjustment method from Photogrammetry with parallax parametrization from Computer Vision to create a new method call APCP (aerial polar-coordinate photogrammetry). One impressive advantage of this method compared with traditional method is that the 3-dimensional point in space is represented using three angles (elevation angle, azimuth angle and parallax angle) rather than the XYZ value. As the basis for APCP, bundle adjustment could be used to optimize the UAS sensors' pose accurately, reconstruct the 3D models of environment, thus serving as the criterion of accurate position for monitoring. To verity the effectiveness of the proposed method, we test on several UAV dataset obtained by non-metric digital cameras with large attitude angles, and we find that our methods could achieve 1 or 2 times better efficiency with no loss of accuracy than traditional ones. For the classical nonlinear optimization of bundle adjustment model based on the rectangular coordinate, it suffers the problem of being seriously dependent on the initial values, making it unable to converge fast or converge to a stable state. On the contrary, APCP method could deal with quite complex condition of UAS when conducting monitoring as it represent the points in space with angles, including the condition that the sequential images focusing on one object have zero parallax angle. In brief, this paper presents the parameterization of 3D feature points based on APCP, and derives a full bundle adjustment model and the corresponding nonlinear optimization problems based on this method. In addition, we analyze the influence of convergence and

  20. Additive Manufacturing and Business Models: Current Knowledge and Missing Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Öberg

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Additive manufacturing, that is 3D printing technology, may change the way companies operate their businesses. This article adopts a business model perspective to create an understanding of what we know about these changes. It summarizes current knowledge on additive manufacturing within management and business research, and it discusses future research directions in relation to business models for additive manufacturing. Using the scientific database Web of Science, 116 journal articles were identified. The literature review reveals that most research concerns manufacturing optimization. A more holistic view of the changes that additive manufacturing may bring about for firms is needed, as is more research on changed value propositions, and customer/sales-related issues. The article contributes to previous research by systematically summarizing additive manufacturing research in the business and management literature, and by highlighting areas for further investigation related to the business models of individual firms.

  1. Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennant, David R

    2016-05-01

    European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.

  3. Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David; Medhat, Mamdouh; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    2013-01-01

    We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of mo...

  4. Adequacy and adjustment of electromechanical elements of a X radiation generator for automation of system of additional filtration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves Junior, Iremar; Santos, Lucas dos; Potiens, Maria da Penha A.; Vivolo, Vitor

    2011-01-01

    This paper dimensioned the filter wheel components and the adequacy of additional filtrations for the implantation of the OTW automated system with complete replacement of previous used filtration by new set of machine-made filters to be used as the qualities already implanted at the Instrument Calibration Laboratory of the IPEN, Sao Paulo, Brazil. In the sequence, it was performed the measurements of kerma i the air in each quality to be used as reference values

  5. An evaluation of bias in propensity score-adjusted non-linear regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fei; Mitra, Nandita

    2018-03-01

    Propensity score methods are commonly used to adjust for observed confounding when estimating the conditional treatment effect in observational studies. One popular method, covariate adjustment of the propensity score in a regression model, has been empirically shown to be biased in non-linear models. However, no compelling underlying theoretical reason has been presented. We propose a new framework to investigate bias and consistency of propensity score-adjusted treatment effects in non-linear models that uses a simple geometric approach to forge a link between the consistency of the propensity score estimator and the collapsibility of non-linear models. Under this framework, we demonstrate that adjustment of the propensity score in an outcome model results in the decomposition of observed covariates into the propensity score and a remainder term. Omission of this remainder term from a non-collapsible regression model leads to biased estimates of the conditional odds ratio and conditional hazard ratio, but not for the conditional rate ratio. We further show, via simulation studies, that the bias in these propensity score-adjusted estimators increases with larger treatment effect size, larger covariate effects, and increasing dissimilarity between the coefficients of the covariates in the treatment model versus the outcome model.

  6. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  7. Adjustment of regional regression models of urban-runoff quality using data for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoos, Anne B.; Patel, Anant R.

    1996-01-01

    Model-adjustment procedures were applied to the combined data bases of storm-runoff quality for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee, to improve predictive accuracy for storm-runoff quality for urban watersheds in these three cities and throughout Middle and East Tennessee. Data for 45 storms at 15 different sites (five sites in each city) constitute the data base. Comparison of observed values of storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration to the predicted values from the regional regression models for 10 constituents shows prediction errors, as large as 806,000 percent. Model-adjustment procedures, which combine the regional model predictions with local data, are applied to improve predictive accuracy. Standard error of estimate after model adjustment ranges from 67 to 322 percent. Calibration results may be biased due to sampling error in the Tennessee data base. The relatively large values of standard error of estimate for some of the constituent models, although representing significant reduction (at least 50 percent) in prediction error compared to estimation with unadjusted regional models, may be unacceptable for some applications. The user may wish to collect additional local data for these constituents and repeat the analysis, or calibrate an independent local regression model.

  8. Review of Shape Deviation Modeling for Additive Manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu , Zuowei; Keimasi , Safa; ANWER , Nabil; Mathieu , Luc; Qiao , Lihong

    2016-01-01

    International audience; Additive Manufacturing (AM) is becoming a promising technology capable of building complex customized parts with internal geometries and graded material by stacking up thin individual layers. However, a comprehensive geometric model for Additive Manufacturing is not mature yet. Dimensional and form accuracy and surface finish are still a bottleneck for AM regarding quality control. In this paper, an up-to-date review is drawn on methods and approaches that have been de...

  9. Modeling and Control of the Redundant Parallel Adjustment Mechanism on a Deployable Antenna Panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Tian

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available With the aim of developing multiple input and multiple output (MIMO coupling systems with a redundant parallel adjustment mechanism on the deployable antenna panel, a structural control integrated design methodology is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the modal information from the finite element model of the structure of the antenna panel is extracted, and then the mathematical model is established with the Hamilton principle; Secondly, the discrete Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR controller is added to the model in order to control the actuators and adjust the shape of the panel. Finally, the engineering practicality of the modeling and control method based on finite element analysis simulation is verified.

  10. Improving a mother to child HIV transmission programme through health system redesign: quality improvement, protocol adjustment and resource addition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele S Youngleson

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Health systems that deliver prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT services in low and middle income countries continue to underperform, resulting in thousands of unnecessary HIV infections of newborns each year. We used a combination of approaches to health systems strengthening to reduce transmission of HIV from mother to infant in a multi-facility public health system in South Africa.All primary care sites and specialized birthing centers in a resource constrained sub-district of Cape Metro District, South Africa, were enrolled in a quality improvement (QI programme. All pregnant women receiving antenatal, intrapartum and postnatal infant care in the sub-district between January 2006 and March 2009 were included in the intervention that had a prototype-innovation phase and a rapid spread phase. System changes were introduced to help frontline healthcare workers to identify and improve performance gaps at each step of the PMTCT pathway. Improvement was facilitated and spread through the use of a Breakthrough Series Collaborative that accelerated learning and the spread of successful changes. Protocol changes and additional resources were introduced by provincial and municipal government. The proportion of HIV-exposed infants testing positive declined from 7.6% to 5%. Key intermediate PMTCT processes improved (antenatal AZT increased from 74% to 86%, PMTCT clients on HAART at the time of labour increased from 10% to 25%, intrapartum AZT increased from 43% to 84%, and postnatal HIV testing from 79% to 95% compared to baseline.System improvement methods, protocol changes and addition/reallocation of resources contributed to improved PMTCT processes and outcomes in a resource constrained setting. The intervention requires a clear design, leadership buy-in, building local capacity to use systems improvement methods, and a reliable data system. A systems improvement approach offers a much needed approach to rapidly improve under

  11. Generalized additive model of air pollution to daily mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J.; Yang, H.E.

    2005-01-01

    The association of air pollution with daily mortality due to cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and old age (65 or older) in Seoul, Korea was investigated in 1999 using daily values of TSP, PM10, O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and CO. Generalized additive Poisson models were applied to allow for the highly flexible fitting of daily trends in air pollution as well as nonlinear association with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed. To estimate the effect of air pollution and weather on mortality, LOESS smoothing was used in generalized additive models. The findings suggest that air pollution levels affect significantly the daily mortality. (orig.)

  12. Steps in the construction and verification of an explanatory model of psychosocial adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arantzazu Rodríguez-Fernández

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to empirically test an explanatory model of psychosocial adjustment during adolescence, with psychosocial adjustment during this stage being understood as a combination of school adjustment (or school engagement and subjective well-being. According to the hypothetic model, psychosocial adjustment depends on self-concept and resilience, which in turn act as mediators of the influence of perceived social support (from family, peers and teachers on this adjustment. Participants were 1250 secondary school students (638 girls and 612 boys aged between 12 and 15 years (Mean = 13.72; SD = 1.09. The results provided evidence of: (a the influence of all three types of perceived support on subject resilience and self-concept, with perceived family support being particularly important in this respect; (b the influence of the support received from teachers on school adjustment and support received from the family on psychological wellbeing; and (c the absence of any direct influence of peer support on psychosocial adjustment, although indirect influence was observed through the psychological variables studied. These results are discussed from an educational perspective and in terms of future research.

  13. Steps in the construction and verification of an explanatory model of psychosocial adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arantzazu Rodríguez-Fernández

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to empirically test an explanatory model of psychosocial adjustment during adolescence, with psychosocial adjustment during this stage being understood as a combination of school adjustment (or school engagement and subjective well-being. According to the hypothetic model, psychosocial adjustment depends on self-concept and resilience, which in turn act as mediators of the influence of perceived social support (from family, peers and teachers on this adjustment. Participants were 1250 secondary school students (638 girls and 612 boys aged between 12 and 15 years (Mean = 13.72; SD = 1.09. The results provided evidence of: (a the influence of all three types of perceived support on subject resilience and self-concept, with perceived family support being particularly important in this respect; (b the influence of the support received from teachers on school adjustment and support received from the family on psychological wellbeing; and (c the absence of any direct influence of peer support on psychosocial adjustment, although indirect influence was observed through the psychological variables studied. These results are discussed from an educational perspective and in terms of future research

  14. Implication of Mauk Nursing Rehabilitation Model on Adjustment of Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeinab Ebrahimpour mouziraji

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Stroke is a neurological syndrome with sudden onset or gradual destruction of brain vessels, which may take 24 hours or more. Complications of stroke effect in the variation aspects of the individual. According to De Spulveda and Chang’s Studies, disability reduced the effective adjustment. This study aimed to overview the adjustment of stroke patients based on the main concepts of rehabilitation nursing Mauk model. Methods: In a quasi-experimental one group pre-posttest design study, data was collected in the neurology clinic of Imam Khomeini hospital and stroke patient rehabilitation centers in Tehran (Tabassom. Data collection included demographic and adjustment questionnaires of stroke patients. The intervention included seven sessions as Mauk model, each session with one hour training, for seven patients. Data analysis performed with SPSS software with paired t-test and was compared with previous results. Results: There were significant differences between the mean scores of patients with stroke adjustment questionnaire in the pre-test-post-test. But in the adjustment sub-scales, except for relationship with wife and Personal adjustment, in other areas, there is no statistically significant difference between the pre and posttest. Discussion: The results indicated that training has been affected on some aspects of adjustment of stroke patients in order to, as improving functions, complications and its limitations. Nurses can help then with implementing of plans such as patients education in this regard.

  15. Covariate selection for the semiparametric additive risk model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers covariate selection for the additive hazards model. This model is particularly simple to study theoretically and its practical implementation has several major advantages to the similar methodology for the proportional hazards model. One complication compared...... and study their large sample properties for the situation where the number of covariates p is smaller than the number of observations. We also show that the adaptive Lasso has the oracle property. In many practical situations, it is more relevant to tackle the situation with large p compared with the number...... of observations. We do this by studying the properties of the so-called Dantzig selector in the setting of the additive risk model. Specifically, we establish a bound on how close the solution is to a true sparse signal in the case where the number of covariates is large. In a simulation study, we also compare...

  16. Electroacoustics modeling of piezoelectric welders for ultrasonic additive manufacturing processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hehr, Adam; Dapino, Marcelo J.

    2016-04-01

    Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) is a recent 3D metal printing technology which utilizes ultrasonic vibrations from high power piezoelectric transducers to additively weld similar and dissimilar metal foils. CNC machining is used intermittent of welding to create internal channels, embed temperature sensitive components, sensors, and materials, and for net shaping parts. Structural dynamics of the welder and work piece influence the performance of the welder and part quality. To understand the impact of structural dynamics on UAM, a linear time-invariant model is used to relate system shear force and electric current inputs to the system outputs of welder velocity and voltage. Frequency response measurements are combined with in-situ operating measurements of the welder to identify model parameters and to verify model assumptions. The proposed LTI model can enhance process consistency, performance, and guide the development of improved quality monitoring and control strategies.

  17. Projecting UK mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models

    OpenAIRE

    Hilton, Jason; Dodd, Erengul; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter W.F.

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the forecasting of mortality that jointly estimates a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) for mortality for the majority of the age-range and a parametric model for older ages where the data are sparser. The GAM allows smooth components...

  18. Modeling uranium transport in acidic contaminated groundwater with base addition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Fan [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Luo, Wensui [ORNL; Parker, Jack C. [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Brooks, Scott C [ORNL; Watson, David B [ORNL; Jardine, Philip [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gu, Baohua [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates reactive transport modeling in a column of uranium(VI)-contaminated sediments with base additions in the circulating influent. The groundwater and sediment exhibit oxic conditions with low pH, high concentrations of NO{sub 3}{sup -}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, U and various metal cations. Preliminary batch experiments indicate that additions of strong base induce rapid immobilization of U for this material. In the column experiment that is the focus of the present study, effluent groundwater was titrated with NaOH solution in an inflow reservoir before reinjection to gradually increase the solution pH in the column. An equilibrium hydrolysis, precipitation and ion exchange reaction model developed through simulation of the preliminary batch titration experiments predicted faster reduction of aqueous Al than observed in the column experiment. The model was therefore modified to consider reaction kinetics for the precipitation and dissolution processes which are the major mechanism for Al immobilization. The combined kinetic and equilibrium reaction model adequately described variations in pH, aqueous concentrations of metal cations (Al, Ca, Mg, Sr, Mn, Ni, Co), sulfate and U(VI). The experimental and modeling results indicate that U(VI) can be effectively sequestered with controlled base addition due to sorption by slowly precipitated Al with pH-dependent surface charge. The model may prove useful to predict field-scale U(VI) sequestration and remediation effectiveness.

  19. Modeling uranium transport in acidic contaminated groundwater with base addition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Fan; Luo Wensui; Parker, Jack C.; Brooks, Scott C.; Watson, David B.; Jardine, Philip M.; Gu Baohua

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates reactive transport modeling in a column of uranium(VI)-contaminated sediments with base additions in the circulating influent. The groundwater and sediment exhibit oxic conditions with low pH, high concentrations of NO 3 - , SO 4 2- , U and various metal cations. Preliminary batch experiments indicate that additions of strong base induce rapid immobilization of U for this material. In the column experiment that is the focus of the present study, effluent groundwater was titrated with NaOH solution in an inflow reservoir before reinjection to gradually increase the solution pH in the column. An equilibrium hydrolysis, precipitation and ion exchange reaction model developed through simulation of the preliminary batch titration experiments predicted faster reduction of aqueous Al than observed in the column experiment. The model was therefore modified to consider reaction kinetics for the precipitation and dissolution processes which are the major mechanism for Al immobilization. The combined kinetic and equilibrium reaction model adequately described variations in pH, aqueous concentrations of metal cations (Al, Ca, Mg, Sr, Mn, Ni, Co), sulfate and U(VI). The experimental and modeling results indicate that U(VI) can be effectively sequestered with controlled base addition due to sorption by slowly precipitated Al with pH-dependent surface charge. The model may prove useful to predict field-scale U(VI) sequestration and remediation effectiveness.

  20. Modeling uranium transport in acidic contaminated groundwater with base addition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Fan, E-mail: zhangfan@itpcas.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2871, Beijing, 100085 (China); Luo Wensui [Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, 361021 (China); Parker, Jack C. [Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Brooks, Scott C.; Watson, David B. [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Jardine, Philip M. [Biosystems Engineering and Soil Science Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Gu Baohua [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    This study investigates reactive transport modeling in a column of uranium(VI)-contaminated sediments with base additions in the circulating influent. The groundwater and sediment exhibit oxic conditions with low pH, high concentrations of NO{sub 3}{sup -}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, U and various metal cations. Preliminary batch experiments indicate that additions of strong base induce rapid immobilization of U for this material. In the column experiment that is the focus of the present study, effluent groundwater was titrated with NaOH solution in an inflow reservoir before reinjection to gradually increase the solution pH in the column. An equilibrium hydrolysis, precipitation and ion exchange reaction model developed through simulation of the preliminary batch titration experiments predicted faster reduction of aqueous Al than observed in the column experiment. The model was therefore modified to consider reaction kinetics for the precipitation and dissolution processes which are the major mechanism for Al immobilization. The combined kinetic and equilibrium reaction model adequately described variations in pH, aqueous concentrations of metal cations (Al, Ca, Mg, Sr, Mn, Ni, Co), sulfate and U(VI). The experimental and modeling results indicate that U(VI) can be effectively sequestered with controlled base addition due to sorption by slowly precipitated Al with pH-dependent surface charge. The model may prove useful to predict field-scale U(VI) sequestration and remediation effectiveness.

  1. Generalised additive modelling approach to the fermentation process of glutamate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chun-Bo; Li, Yun; Pan, Feng; Shi, Zhong-Ping

    2011-03-01

    In this work, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used for the first time to model the fermentation of glutamate (Glu). It was found that three fermentation parameters fermentation time (T), dissolved oxygen (DO) and oxygen uptake rate (OUR) could capture 97% variance of the production of Glu during the fermentation process through a GAM model calibrated using online data from 15 fermentation experiments. This model was applied to investigate the individual and combined effects of T, DO and OUR on the production of Glu. The conditions to optimize the fermentation process were proposed based on the simulation study from this model. Results suggested that the production of Glu can reach a high level by controlling concentration levels of DO and OUR to the proposed optimization conditions during the fermentation process. The GAM approach therefore provides an alternative way to model and optimize the fermentation process of Glu. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA; GENTON, MARC G.

    2009-01-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided

  3. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  4. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  5. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, two non-parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel-based approaches. The second estimator

  6. Genomic Model with Correlation Between Additive and Dominance Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Tao; Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Vitezica, Zulma Gladis; Legarra, Andres

    2018-05-09

    Dominance genetic effects are rarely included in pedigree-based genetic evaluation. With the availability of single nucleotide polymorphism markers and the development of genomic evaluation, estimates of dominance genetic effects have become feasible using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP). Usually, studies involving additive and dominance genetic effects ignore possible relationships between them. It has been often suggested that the magnitude of functional additive and dominance effects at the quantitative trait loci are related, but there is no existing GBLUP-like approach accounting for such correlation. Wellmann and Bennewitz showed two ways of considering directional relationships between additive and dominance effects, which they estimated in a Bayesian framework. However, these relationships cannot be fitted at the level of individuals instead of loci in a mixed model and are not compatible with standard animal or plant breeding software. This comes from a fundamental ambiguity in assigning the reference allele at a given locus. We show that, if there has been selection, assigning the most frequent as the reference allele orients the correlation between functional additive and dominance effects. As a consequence, the most frequent reference allele is expected to have a positive value. We also demonstrate that selection creates negative covariance between genotypic additive and dominance genetic values. For parameter estimation, it is possible to use a combined additive and dominance relationship matrix computed from marker genotypes, and to use standard restricted maximum likelihood (REML) algorithms based on an equivalent model. Through a simulation study, we show that such correlations can easily be estimated by mixed model software and accuracy of prediction for genetic values is slightly improved if such correlations are used in GBLUP. However, a model assuming uncorrelated effects and fitting orthogonal breeding values and dominant

  7. Modelling of additive manufacturing processes: a review and classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavropoulos, Panagiotis; Foteinopoulos, Panagis

    2018-03-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) is a very promising technology; however, there are a number of open issues related to the different AM processes. The literature on modelling the existing AM processes is reviewed and classified. A categorization of the different AM processes in process groups, according to the process mechanism, has been conducted and the most important issues are stated. Suggestions are made as to which approach is more appropriate according to the key performance indicator desired to be modelled and a discussion is included as to the way that future modelling work can better contribute to improving today's AM process understanding.

  8. Modeling Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Loss Resulting from Tobacco Use in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Robert M.; Anderson, John P.; Kaplan, Cameron M.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To describe the development of a model for estimating the effects of tobacco use upon Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and to estimate the impact of tobacco use on health outcomes for the United States (US) population using the model. Method: We obtained estimates of tobacco consumption from 6 years of the National Health Interview…

  9. Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

    2004-01-01

    This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

  10. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  11. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA

    2009-09-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided for stationarity of such models. We also study estimation of the proposed model using P-splines, hypothesis testing, asymptotics, selection of the order of the autoregression and of the smoothing parameters and nonlinear forecasting. We perform simulation experiments to evaluate our model in various settings. We illustrate our methodology on a climate data set and show that our model provides more accurate yearly forecasts of the El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of water in the Pacific Ocean. © 2009 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

  12. Validation of transport models using additive flux minimization technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pankin, A. Y.; Kruger, S. E. [Tech-X Corporation, 5621 Arapahoe Ave., Boulder, Colorado 80303 (United States); Groebner, R. J. [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92121 (United States); Hakim, A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Kritz, A. H.; Rafiq, T. [Department of Physics, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    A new additive flux minimization technique is proposed for carrying out the verification and validation (V and V) of anomalous transport models. In this approach, the plasma profiles are computed in time dependent predictive simulations in which an additional effective diffusivity is varied. The goal is to obtain an optimal match between the computed and experimental profile. This new technique has several advantages over traditional V and V methods for transport models in tokamaks and takes advantage of uncertainty quantification methods developed by the applied math community. As a demonstration of its efficiency, the technique is applied to the hypothesis that the paleoclassical density transport dominates in the plasma edge region in DIII-D tokamak discharges. A simplified version of the paleoclassical model that utilizes the Spitzer resistivity for the parallel neoclassical resistivity and neglects the trapped particle effects is tested in this paper. It is shown that a contribution to density transport, in addition to the paleoclassical density transport, is needed in order to describe the experimental profiles. It is found that more additional diffusivity is needed at the top of the H-mode pedestal, and almost no additional diffusivity is needed at the pedestal bottom. The implementation of this V and V technique uses the FACETS::Core transport solver and the DAKOTA toolkit for design optimization and uncertainty quantification. The FACETS::Core solver is used for advancing the plasma density profiles. The DAKOTA toolkit is used for the optimization of plasma profiles and the computation of the additional diffusivity that is required for the predicted density profile to match the experimental profile.

  13. Validation of transport models using additive flux minimization technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, A. Y.; Kruger, S. E.; Groebner, R. J.; Hakim, A.; Kritz, A. H.; Rafiq, T.

    2013-01-01

    A new additive flux minimization technique is proposed for carrying out the verification and validation (V and V) of anomalous transport models. In this approach, the plasma profiles are computed in time dependent predictive simulations in which an additional effective diffusivity is varied. The goal is to obtain an optimal match between the computed and experimental profile. This new technique has several advantages over traditional V and V methods for transport models in tokamaks and takes advantage of uncertainty quantification methods developed by the applied math community. As a demonstration of its efficiency, the technique is applied to the hypothesis that the paleoclassical density transport dominates in the plasma edge region in DIII-D tokamak discharges. A simplified version of the paleoclassical model that utilizes the Spitzer resistivity for the parallel neoclassical resistivity and neglects the trapped particle effects is tested in this paper. It is shown that a contribution to density transport, in addition to the paleoclassical density transport, is needed in order to describe the experimental profiles. It is found that more additional diffusivity is needed at the top of the H-mode pedestal, and almost no additional diffusivity is needed at the pedestal bottom. The implementation of this V and V technique uses the FACETS::Core transport solver and the DAKOTA toolkit for design optimization and uncertainty quantification. The FACETS::Core solver is used for advancing the plasma density profiles. The DAKOTA toolkit is used for the optimization of plasma profiles and the computation of the additional diffusivity that is required for the predicted density profile to match the experimental profile

  14. Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

    2016-01-01

    Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

  16. Just Another Gibbs Additive Modeler: Interfacing JAGS and mgcv

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon N. Wood

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The BUGS language offers a very flexible way of specifying complex statistical models for the purposes of Gibbs sampling, while its JAGS variant offers very convenient R integration via the rjags package. However, including smoothers in JAGS models can involve some quite tedious coding, especially for multivariate or adaptive smoothers. Further, if an additive smooth structure is required then some care is needed, in order to centre smooths appropriately, and to find appropriate starting values. R package mgcv implements a wide range of smoothers, all in a manner appropriate for inclusion in JAGS code, and automates centring and other smooth setup tasks. The purpose of this note is to describe an interface between mgcv and JAGS, based around an R function, jagam, which takes a generalized additive model (GAM as specified in mgcv and automatically generates the JAGS model code and data required for inference about the model via Gibbs sampling. Although the auto-generated JAGS code can be run as is, the expectation is that the user would wish to modify it in order to add complex stochastic model components readily specified in JAGS. A simple interface is also provided for visualisation and further inference about the estimated smooth components using standard mgcv functionality. The methods described here will be un-necessarily inefficient if all that is required is fully Bayesian inference about a standard GAM, rather than the full flexibility of JAGS. In that case the BayesX package would be more efficient.

  17. Modeling the influence of limestone addition on cement hydration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Ragab Mohamed

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the influence of using Portland limestone cement “PLC” on cement hydration by characterization of its microstructure development. The European Standard EN 197-1:2011 and Egyptian specification ESS 4756-1/2009 permit the cement to contain up to 20% ground limestone. The computational tools assist in better understanding the influence of limestone additions on cement hydration and microstructure development to facilitate the acceptance of these more economical and ecological materials. μic model has been developed to enable the modeling of microstructural evolution of cementitious materials. In this research μic model is used to simulate both the influence of limestone as fine filler, providing additional surfaces for the nucleation and growth of hydration products. Limestone powder also reacts relatively slow with hydrating cement to form monocarboaluminate (AFmc phase, similar to the mono-sulfoaluminate (AFm phase formed in ordinary Portland cement. The model results reveal that limestone cement has accelerated cement hydration rate, previous experimental results and computer model “cemhyd3d” are used to validate this model.

  18. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  19. Droop Control with an Adjustable Complex Virtual Impedance Loop based on Cloud Model Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Yan; Shuai, Zhikang; Xu, Qinming

    2016-01-01

    Droop control framework with an adjustable virtual impedance loop is proposed in this paper, which is based on the cloud model theory. The proposed virtual impedance loop includes two terms: a negative virtual resistor and an adjustable virtual inductance. The negative virtual resistor term...... sometimes. The cloud model theory is applied to get online the changing line impedance value, which relies on the relevance of the reactive power responding the changing line impedance. The verification of the proposed control strategy is done according to the simulation in a low voltage microgrid in Matlab....

  20. Contact angle adjustment in equation-of-state-based pseudopotential model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Anjie; Li, Longjian; Uddin, Rizwan; Liu, Dong

    2016-05-01

    The single component pseudopotential lattice Boltzmann model has been widely applied in multiphase simulation due to its simplicity and stability. In many studies, it has been claimed that this model can be stable for density ratios larger than 1000. However, the application of the model is still limited to small density ratios when the contact angle is considered. The reason is that the original contact angle adjustment method influences the stability of the model. Moreover, simulation results in the present work show that, by applying the original contact angle adjustment method, the density distribution near the wall is artificially changed, and the contact angle is dependent on the surface tension. Hence, it is very inconvenient to apply this method with a fixed contact angle, and the accuracy of the model cannot be guaranteed. To solve these problems, a contact angle adjustment method based on the geometry analysis is proposed and numerically compared with the original method. Simulation results show that, with our contact angle adjustment method, the stability of the model is highly improved when the density ratio is relatively large, and it is independent of the surface tension.

  1. The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study...... model. A standard PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to the well known primary biliary...

  2. Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solberg Trygve

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

  3. Using multilevel modeling to assess case-mix adjusters in consumer experience surveys in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Stubbe, Janine H; Hendriks, Michelle; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Delnoij, Diana M J; Groenewegen, Peter P

    2009-04-01

    Ratings on the quality of healthcare from the consumer's perspective need to be adjusted for consumer characteristics to ensure fair and accurate comparisons between healthcare providers or health plans. Although multilevel analysis is already considered an appropriate method for analyzing healthcare performance data, it has rarely been used to assess case-mix adjustment of such data. The purpose of this article is to investigate whether multilevel regression analysis is a useful tool to detect case-mix adjusters in consumer assessment of healthcare. We used data on 11,539 consumers from 27 Dutch health plans, which were collected using the Dutch Consumer Quality Index health plan instrument. We conducted multilevel regression analyses of consumers' responses nested within health plans to assess the effects of consumer characteristics on consumer experience. We compared our findings to the results of another methodology: the impact factor approach, which combines the predictive effect of each case-mix variable with its heterogeneity across health plans. Both multilevel regression and impact factor analyses showed that age and education were the most important case-mix adjusters for consumer experience and ratings of health plans. With the exception of age, case-mix adjustment had little impact on the ranking of health plans. On both theoretical and practical grounds, multilevel modeling is useful for adequate case-mix adjustment and analysis of performance ratings.

  4. Modeling process-structure-property relationships for additive manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wentao; Lin, Stephen; Kafka, Orion L.; Yu, Cheng; Liu, Zeliang; Lian, Yanping; Wolff, Sarah; Cao, Jian; Wagner, Gregory J.; Liu, Wing Kam

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents our latest work on comprehensive modeling of process-structure-property relationships for additive manufacturing (AM) materials, including using data-mining techniques to close the cycle of design-predict-optimize. To illustrate the processstructure relationship, the multi-scale multi-physics process modeling starts from the micro-scale to establish a mechanistic heat source model, to the meso-scale models of individual powder particle evolution, and finally to the macro-scale model to simulate the fabrication process of a complex product. To link structure and properties, a highefficiency mechanistic model, self-consistent clustering analyses, is developed to capture a variety of material response. The model incorporates factors such as voids, phase composition, inclusions, and grain structures, which are the differentiating features of AM metals. Furthermore, we propose data-mining as an effective solution for novel rapid design and optimization, which is motivated by the numerous influencing factors in the AM process. We believe this paper will provide a roadmap to advance AM fundamental understanding and guide the monitoring and advanced diagnostics of AM processing.

  5. Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal adjustment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Liu, Y.; Koren, V.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

    2012-01-01

    State updating of distributed rainfall-runoff models via streamflow assimilation is subject to overfitting because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously under-determined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carry out a set of real-world experiments in which streamflow data is assimilated into gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and kinematic-wave routing models of the US National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) with the variational data assimilation technique. Study basins include four basins in Oklahoma and five basins in Texas. To assess the sensitivity of data assimilation performance to dimensionality reduction in the control vector, we used nine different spatiotemporal adjustment scales, where state variables are adjusted in a lumped, semi-distributed, or distributed fashion and biases in precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) are adjusted hourly, 6-hourly, or kept time-invariant. For each adjustment scale, three different streamflow assimilation scenarios are explored, where streamflow observations at basin interior points, at the basin outlet, or at both interior points and the outlet are assimilated. The streamflow assimilation experiments with nine different basins show that the optimum spatiotemporal adjustment scale varies from one basin to another and may be different for streamflow analysis and prediction in all of the three streamflow assimilation scenarios. The most preferred adjustment scale for seven out of nine basins is found to be the distributed, hourly scale, despite the fact that several independent validation results at this adjustment scale indicated the occurrence of overfitting. Basins with highly correlated interior and outlet flows tend to be less sensitive to the adjustment scale and could benefit more from streamflow assimilation. In comparison to outlet flow assimilation, interior flow

  6. Additive manufacturing for consumer-centric business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Marcel; Hadar, Ronen; Bilberg, Arne

    2016-01-01

    Digital fabrication—including additive manufacturing (AM), rapid prototyping and 3D printing—has the potential to revolutionize the way in which products are produced and delivered to the customer. Therefore, it challenges companies to reinvent their business model—describing the logic of creating...... and capturing value. In this paper, we explore the implications that AM technologies have for manufacturing systems in the new business models that they enable. In particular, we consider how a consumer goods manufacturer can organize the operations of a more open business model when moving from a manufacturer......-centric to a consumer-centric value logic. A major shift includes a move from centralized to decentralized supply chains, where consumer goods manufacturers can implement a “hybrid” approach with a focus on localization and accessibility or develop a fully personalized model where the consumer effectively takes over...

  7. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

  8. Multiscale and Multiphysics Modeling of Additive Manufacturing of Advanced Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Frank; Newkirk, Joseph; Fan, Zhiqiang; Sparks, Todd; Chen, Xueyang; Fletcher, Kenneth; Zhang, Jingwei; Zhang, Yunlu; Kumar, Kannan Suresh; Karnati, Sreekar

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this proposed project is to research and develop a prediction tool for advanced additive manufacturing (AAM) processes for advanced materials and develop experimental methods to provide fundamental properties and establish validation data. Aircraft structures and engines demand materials that are stronger, useable at much higher temperatures, provide less acoustic transmission, and enable more aeroelastic tailoring than those currently used. Significant improvements in properties can only be achieved by processing the materials under nonequilibrium conditions, such as AAM processes. AAM processes encompass a class of processes that use a focused heat source to create a melt pool on a substrate. Examples include Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication and Direct Metal Deposition. These types of additive processes enable fabrication of parts directly from CAD drawings. To achieve the desired material properties and geometries of the final structure, assessing the impact of process parameters and predicting optimized conditions with numerical modeling as an effective prediction tool is necessary. The targets for the processing are multiple and at different spatial scales, and the physical phenomena associated occur in multiphysics and multiscale. In this project, the research work has been developed to model AAM processes in a multiscale and multiphysics approach. A macroscale model was developed to investigate the residual stresses and distortion in AAM processes. A sequentially coupled, thermomechanical, finite element model was developed and validated experimentally. The results showed the temperature distribution, residual stress, and deformation within the formed deposits and substrates. A mesoscale model was developed to include heat transfer, phase change with mushy zone, incompressible free surface flow, solute redistribution, and surface tension. Because of excessive computing time needed, a parallel computing approach was also tested. In addition

  9. Process Modeling and Validation for Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunovic, Srdjan [ORNL; Nycz, Andrzej [ORNL; Noakes, Mark W. [ORNL; Chin, Charlie [Dassault Systemes; Oancea, Victor [Dassault Systemes

    2017-05-01

    Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (mBAAM) is a new additive manufacturing (AM) technology based on the metal arc welding. A continuously fed metal wire is melted by an electric arc that forms between the wire and the substrate, and deposited in the form of a bead of molten metal along the predetermined path. Objects are manufactured one layer at a time starting from the base plate. The final properties of the manufactured object are dependent on its geometry and the metal deposition path, in addition to depending on the basic welding process parameters. Computational modeling can be used to accelerate the development of the mBAAM technology as well as a design and optimization tool for the actual manufacturing process. We have developed a finite element method simulation framework for mBAAM using the new features of software ABAQUS. The computational simulation of material deposition with heat transfer is performed first, followed by the structural analysis based on the temperature history for predicting the final deformation and stress state. In this formulation, we assume that two physics phenomena are coupled in only one direction, i.e. the temperatures are driving the deformation and internal stresses, but their feedback on the temperatures is negligible. The experiment instrumentation (measurement types, sensor types, sensor locations, sensor placements, measurement intervals) and the measurements are presented. The temperatures and distortions from the simulations show good correlation with experimental measurements. Ongoing modeling work is also briefly discussed.

  10. A Threshold Model of Social Support, Adjustment, and Distress after Breast Cancer Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallinckrodt, Brent; Armer, Jane M.; Heppner, P. Paul

    2012-01-01

    This study examined a threshold model that proposes that social support exhibits a curvilinear association with adjustment and distress, such that support in excess of a critical threshold level has decreasing incremental benefits. Women diagnosed with a first occurrence of breast cancer (N = 154) completed survey measures of perceived support…

  11. Development of a model for case-mix adjustment of pressure ulcer prevalence rates.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bours, G.J.J.W.; Halfens, J.; Berger, M.P.; Abu-Saad, H.H.; Grol, R.P.T.M.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Acute care hospitals participating in the Dutch national pressure ulcer prevalence survey use the results of this survey to compare their outcomes and assess their quality of care regarding pressure ulcer prevention. The development of a model for case-mix adjustment is essential for the

  12. 10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

  13. Towards an Integrated Conceptual Model of International Student Adjustment and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schartner, Alina; Young, Tony Johnstone

    2016-01-01

    Despite a burgeoning body of empirical research on "the international student experience", the area remains under-theorized. The literature to date lacks a guiding conceptual model that captures the adjustment and adaptation trajectories of this unique, growing, and important sojourner group. In this paper, we therefore put forward a…

  14. Testing an Attachment Model of Latina/o College Students' Psychological Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garriott, Patton O.; Love, Keisha M.; Tyler, Kenneth M.; Thomas, Deneia M.; Roan-Belle, Clarissa R.; Brown, Carrie L.

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of attachment relationships on the psychological adjustment of Latina/o university students (N = 80) attending predominantly White institutions of higher education. A path analysis conducted to test a hypothesized model of parent and peer attachment, self-esteem, and psychological distress indicated that…

  15. Rational Multi-curve Models with Counterparty-risk Valuation Adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crépey, Stéphane; Macrina, Andrea; Nguyen, Tuyet Mai

    2016-01-01

    We develop a multi-curve term structure set-up in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to London Interbank Offer Rate swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor log-normal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market da...... with regulatory obligations. In order to compute counterparty-risk valuation adjustments, such as credit valuation adjustment, we show how default intensity processes with rational form can be derived. We flesh out our study by applying the results to a basis swap contract....... with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship between the models developed and calibrated under a risk-neutral measure Q and their consistent equivalence class under the real-world probability measure P. The consistent P-pricing models are applied to compute the risk exposures which may be required to comply...

  16. Addition Table of Colours: Additive and Subtractive Mixtures Described Using a Single Reasoning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, A. R.; Lopes dos Santos, J. M. B.

    2014-01-01

    Students' misconceptions concerning colour phenomena and the apparent complexity of the underlying concepts--due to the different domains of knowledge involved--make its teaching very difficult. We have developed and tested a teaching device, the addition table of colours (ATC), that encompasses additive and subtractive mixtures in a single…

  17. Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2011-08-01

    We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

  18. In silico modeling of structural and porosity properties of additive manufactured implants for regenerative medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brünler, Ronny; Aibibu, Dilbar; Wöltje, Michael; Anthofer, Anna-Maria; Cherif, Chokri

    2017-07-01

    Additive manufacturing technologies are a promising technology towards patient-specific implants for applications in regenerative medicine. The Net-Shape-Nonwoven technology is used to manufacture structures from short fibers with interconnected pores and large functional surfaces that are predestined for cell adhesion and growth. The present study reports on a modeling approach with a particular focus on the specific structural properties. The overall porosities and mean pore-sizes of the digital models are simulated according to liquid-displacement porosity in a tool implemented in the modeling software. This allows adjusting the process parameters fiber length and fiber diameter to generate biomimetic structures with pore-sizes adapted to the requirements of the tissue that is to be replaced. Modeling the structural and porosity properties of scaffolds and implants leads to an efficient use of the processed biomaterials as the trial-and-error method is avoided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Kinetics approach to modeling of polymer additive degradation in lubricants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    llyaI.KUDISH; RubenG.AIRAPETYAN; Michael; J.; COVITCH

    2001-01-01

    A kinetics problem for a degrading polymer additive dissolved in a base stock is studied.The polymer degradation may be caused by the combination of such lubricant flow parameters aspressure, elongational strain rate, and temperature as well as lubricant viscosity and the polymercharacteristics (dissociation energy, bead radius, bond length, etc.). A fundamental approach tothe problem of modeling mechanically induced polymer degradation is proposed. The polymerdegradation is modeled on the basis of a kinetic equation for the density of the statistical distribu-tion of polymer molecules as a function of their molecular weight. The integrodifferential kineticequation for polymer degradation is solved numerically. The effects of pressure, elongational strainrate, temperature, and lubricant viscosity on the process of lubricant degradation are considered.The increase of pressure promotes fast degradation while the increase of temperature delaysdegradation. A comparison of a numerically calculated molecular weight distribution with an ex-perimental one obtained in bench tests showed that they are in excellent agreement with eachother.

  20. Adjustment modes in the trajectory of progressive multiple sclerosis: a qualitative study and conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogosian, Angeliki; Morgan, Myfanwy; Bishop, Felicity L; Day, Fern; Moss-Morris, Rona

    2017-03-01

    We examined cognitive and behavioural challenges and adaptations for people with progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) and developed a preliminary conceptual model of changes in adjustment over time. Using theoretical sampling, 34 semi-structured interviews were conducted with people with MS. Participants were between 41 and 77 years of age. Thirteen were diagnosed with primary progressive MS and 21 with secondary progressive MS. Data were analysed using a grounded theory approach. Participants described initially bracketing the illness off and carrying on their usual activities but this became problematic as the condition progressed and they employed different adjustment modes to cope with increased disabilities. Some scaled back their activities to live a more comfortable life, others identified new activities or adapted old ones, whereas at times, people disengaged from the adjustment process altogether and resigned to their condition. Relationships with partners, emotional reactions, environment and perception of the environment influenced adjustment, while people were often flexible and shifted among modes. Adjusting to a progressive condition is a fluid process. Future interventions can be tailored to address modifiable factors at different stages of the condition and may involve addressing emotional reactions concealing/revealing the condition and perceptions of the environment.

  1. WATEQ3 geochemical model: thermodynamic data for several additional solids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupka, K.M.; Jenne, E.A.

    1982-09-01

    Geochemical models such as WATEQ3 can be used to model the concentrations of water-soluble pollutants that may result from the disposal of nuclear waste and retorted oil shale. However, for a model to competently deal with these water-soluble pollutants, an adequate thermodynamic data base must be provided that includes elements identified as important in modeling these pollutants. To this end, several minerals and related solid phases were identified that were absent from the thermodynamic data base of WATEQ3. In this study, the thermodynamic data for the identified solids were compiled and selected from several published tabulations of thermodynamic data. For these solids, an accepted Gibbs free energy of formation, ΔG 0 /sub f,298/, was selected for each solid phase based on the recentness of the tabulated data and on considerations of internal consistency with respect to both the published tabulations and the existing data in WATEQ3. For those solids not included in these published tabulations, Gibbs free energies of formation were calculated from published solubility data (e.g., lepidocrocite), or were estimated (e.g., nontronite) using a free-energy summation method described by Mattigod and Sposito (1978). The accepted or estimated free energies were then combined with internally consistent, ancillary thermodynamic data to calculate equilibrium constants for the hydrolysis reactions of these minerals and related solid phases. Including these values in the WATEQ3 data base increased the competency of this geochemical model in applications associated with the disposal of nuclear waste and retorted oil shale. Additional minerals and related solid phases that need to be added to the solubility submodel will be identified as modeling applications continue in these two programs

  2. Evolution Scenarios at the Romanian Economy Level, Using the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian Stancu

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.

  3. Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebhardt Albrecht

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health issue in Burundi in terms of both morbidity and mortality, with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is still the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Because of the severe health and economic burden of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies/researches have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria transmission. This paper considers the modelling of the dependence of malaria cases on spatial determinants and climatic covariates including rainfall, temperature and humidity in Burundi. Methods The analysis carried out in this work exploits real monthly data collected in the area of Burundi over 12 years (1996-2007. Semi-parametric regression models are used. The spatial analysis is based on a geo-additive model using provinces as the geographic units of study. The spatial effect is split into structured (correlated and unstructured (uncorrelated components. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The effects of the continuous covariates are modelled by cubic p-splines with 20 equidistant knots and second order random walk penalty. For the spatially correlated effect, Markov random field prior is chosen. The spatially uncorrelated effects are assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian. The effects of climatic covariates and the effects of other spatial determinants are estimated simultaneously in a unified regression framework. Results The results obtained from the proposed model suggest that although malaria incidence in a given month is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous months, regional patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables have been identified

  4. [Critical of the additive model of the randomized controlled trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boussageon, Rémy; Gueyffier, François; Bejan-Angoulvant, Theodora; Felden-Dominiak, Géraldine

    2008-01-01

    Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials are currently the best way to demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of drugs. Its methodology relies on the method of difference (John Stuart Mill), through which the observed difference between two groups (drug vs placebo) can be attributed to the pharmacological effect of the drug being tested. However, this additive model can be questioned in the event of statistical interactions between the pharmacological and the placebo effects. Evidence in different domains has shown that the placebo effect can influence the effect of the active principle. This article evaluates the methodological, clinical and epistemological consequences of this phenomenon. Topics treated include extrapolating results, accounting for heterogeneous results, demonstrating the existence of several factors in the placebo effect, the necessity to take these factors into account for given symptoms or pathologies, as well as the problem of the "specific" effect.

  5. Price adjustment for traditional Chinese medicine procedures: Based on a standardized value parity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haiyin; Jin, Chunlin; Jiang, Qingwu

    2017-11-20

    Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is an important part of China's medical system. Due to the prolonged low price of TCM procedures and the lack of an effective mechanism for dynamic price adjustment, the development of TCM has markedly lagged behind Western medicine. The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized the need to enhance the development of alternative and traditional medicine when creating national health care systems. The establishment of scientific and appropriate mechanisms to adjust the price of medical procedures in TCM is crucial to promoting the development of TCM. This study has examined incorporating value indicators and data on basic manpower expended, time spent, technical difficulty, and the degree of risk in the latest standards for the price of medical procedures in China, and this study also offers a price adjustment model with the relative price ratio as a key index. This study examined 144 TCM procedures and found that prices of TCM procedures were mainly based on the value of medical care provided; on average, medical care provided accounted for 89% of the price. Current price levels were generally low and the current price accounted for 56% of the standardized value of a procedure, on average. Current price levels accounted for a markedly lower standardized value of acupuncture, moxibustion, special treatment with TCM, and comprehensive TCM procedures. This study selected a total of 79 procedures and adjusted them by priority. The relationship between the price of TCM procedures and the suggested price was significantly optimized (p based on a standardized value parity model is a scientific and suitable method of price adjustment that can serve as a reference for other provinces and municipalities in China and other countries and regions that mainly have fee-for-service (FFS) medical care.

  6. Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pancrazio Bertaccini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

  7. Parametric Adjustments to the Rankine Vortex Wind Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Parametric Adjustments to the Rankine Vortex Wind Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT ...may be used to construct spatially varying wind fields for the GOM region (e.g., Thompson and Cardone [12]), but this requires using a complicated...Storm Damage Reduc- tion, and Dredging Operations and Environmental Research (DOER). The USACE Headquarters granted permission to publish this paper

  8. Radar adjusted data versus modelled precipitation: a case study over Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casaioli

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the European VOLTAIRE project (Fifth Framework Programme, simulations of relatively heavy precipitation events, which occurred over the island of Cyprus, by means of numerical atmospheric models were performed. One of the aims of the project was indeed the comparison of modelled rainfall fields with multi-sensor observations. Thus, for the 5 March 2003 event, the 24-h accumulated precipitation BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM forecast was compared with the available observations reconstructed from ground-based radar data and estimated by rain gauge data. Since radar data may be affected by errors depending on the distance from the radar, these data could be range-adjusted by using other sensors. In this case, the Precipitation Radar aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite was used to adjust the ground-based radar data with a two-parameter scheme. Thus, in this work, two observational fields were employed: the rain gauge gridded analysis and the observational analysis obtained by merging the range-adjusted radar and rain gauge fields. In order to verify the modelled precipitation, both non-parametric skill scores and the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis were applied. Skill score results show some differences when using the two observational fields. CRA results are instead quite in agreement, showing that in general a 0.27° eastward shift optimizes the forecast with respect to the two observational analyses. This result is also supported by a subjective inspection of the shifted forecast field, whose gross features agree with the analysis pattern more than the non-shifted forecast one. However, some open questions, especially regarding the effect of other range adjustment techniques, remain open and need to be addressed in future works.

  9. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  10. Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

  11. A metallic solution model with adjustable parameter for describing ternary thermodynamic properties from its binary constituents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Zheng; Qiu Guanzhou

    2007-01-01

    A metallic solution model with adjustable parameter k has been developed to predict thermodynamic properties of ternary systems from those of its constituent three binaries. In the present model, the excess Gibbs free energy for a ternary mixture is expressed as a weighted probability sum of those of binaries and the k value is determined based on an assumption that the ternary interaction generally strengthens the mixing effects for metallic solutions with weak interaction, making the Gibbs free energy of mixing of the ternary system more negative than that before considering the interaction. This point is never considered in the models currently reported, where the only difference in a geometrical definition of molar values of components is considered that do not involve thermodynamic principles but are completely empirical. The current model describes the results of experiments very well, and by adjusting the k value also agrees with those from models used widely in the literature. Three ternary systems, Mg-Cu-Ni, Zn-In-Cd, and Cd-Bi-Pb are recalculated to demonstrate the method of determining k and the precision of the model. The results of the calculations, especially those in Mg-Cu-Ni system, are better than those predicted by the current models in the literature

  12. Conceptual Model for Simulating the Adjustments of Bankfull Characteristics in the Lower Yellow River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanjian Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a conceptual model for simulating the temporal adjustments in the banks of the Lower Yellow River (LYR. Basic conservation equations for mass, friction, and sediment transport capacity and the Exner equation were adopted to simulate the hydrodynamics underlying fluvial processes. The relationship between changing rates in bankfull width and depth, derived from quasiuniversal hydraulic geometries, was used as a closure for the hydrodynamic equations. On inputting the daily flow discharge and sediment load, the conceptual model successfully simulated the 30-year adjustments in the bankfull geometries of typical reaches of the LYR. The square of the correlating coefficient reached 0.74 for Huayuankou Station in the multiple-thread reach and exceeded 0.90 for Lijin Station in the meandering reach. This proposed model allows multiple dependent variables and the input of daily hydrological data for long-term simulations. This links the hydrodynamic and geomorphic processes in a fluvial river and has potential applicability to fluvial rivers undergoing significant adjustments.

  13. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  14. Biologically Inspired Visual Model With Preliminary Cognition and Active Attention Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Hong; Xi, Xuanyang; Li, Yinlin; Wu, Wei; Li, Fengfu

    2015-11-01

    Recently, many computational models have been proposed to simulate visual cognition process. For example, the hierarchical Max-Pooling (HMAX) model was proposed according to the hierarchical and bottom-up structure of V1 to V4 in the ventral pathway of primate visual cortex, which could achieve position- and scale-tolerant recognition. In our previous work, we have introduced memory and association into the HMAX model to simulate visual cognition process. In this paper, we improve our theoretical framework by mimicking a more elaborate structure and function of the primate visual cortex. We will mainly focus on the new formation of memory and association in visual processing under different circumstances as well as preliminary cognition and active adjustment in the inferior temporal cortex, which are absent in the HMAX model. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) in the memory and association part, we apply deep convolutional neural networks to extract various episodic features of the objects since people use different features for object recognition. Moreover, to achieve a fast and robust recognition in the retrieval and association process, different types of features are stored in separated clusters and the feature binding of the same object is stimulated in a loop discharge manner and 2) in the preliminary cognition and active adjustment part, we introduce preliminary cognition to classify different types of objects since distinct neural circuits in a human brain are used for identification of various types of objects. Furthermore, active cognition adjustment of occlusion and orientation is implemented to the model to mimic the top-down effect in human cognition process. Finally, our model is evaluated on two face databases CAS-PEAL-R1 and AR. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits its efficiency on visual recognition process with much lower memory storage requirement and a better performance compared with the traditional purely computational

  15. Versatility of cooperative transcriptional activation: a thermodynamical modeling analysis for greater-than-additive and less-than-additive effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Till D Frank

    Full Text Available We derive a statistical model of transcriptional activation using equilibrium thermodynamics of chemical reactions. We examine to what extent this statistical model predicts synergy effects of cooperative activation of gene expression. We determine parameter domains in which greater-than-additive and less-than-additive effects are predicted for cooperative regulation by two activators. We show that the statistical approach can be used to identify different causes of synergistic greater-than-additive effects: nonlinearities of the thermostatistical transcriptional machinery and three-body interactions between RNA polymerase and two activators. In particular, our model-based analysis suggests that at low transcription factor concentrations cooperative activation cannot yield synergistic greater-than-additive effects, i.e., DNA transcription can only exhibit less-than-additive effects. Accordingly, transcriptional activity turns from synergistic greater-than-additive responses at relatively high transcription factor concentrations into less-than-additive responses at relatively low concentrations. In addition, two types of re-entrant phenomena are predicted. First, our analysis predicts that under particular circumstances transcriptional activity will feature a sequence of less-than-additive, greater-than-additive, and eventually less-than-additive effects when for fixed activator concentrations the regulatory impact of activators on the binding of RNA polymerase to the promoter increases from weak, to moderate, to strong. Second, for appropriate promoter conditions when activator concentrations are increased then the aforementioned re-entrant sequence of less-than-additive, greater-than-additive, and less-than-additive effects is predicted as well. Finally, our model-based analysis suggests that even for weak activators that individually induce only negligible increases in promoter activity, promoter activity can exhibit greater-than-additive

  16. Estimation of group means when adjusting for covariates in generalized linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yongming; Luo, Junxiang

    2015-01-01

    Generalized linear models are commonly used to analyze categorical data such as binary, count, and ordinal outcomes. Adjusting for important prognostic factors or baseline covariates in generalized linear models may improve the estimation efficiency. The model-based mean for a treatment group produced by most software packages estimates the response at the mean covariate, not the mean response for this treatment group for the studied population. Although this is not an issue for linear models, the model-based group mean estimates in generalized linear models could be seriously biased for the true group means. We propose a new method to estimate the group mean consistently with the corresponding variance estimation. Simulation showed the proposed method produces an unbiased estimator for the group means and provided the correct coverage probability. The proposed method was applied to analyze hypoglycemia data from clinical trials in diabetes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Electromagnetic structure of pion in the framework of adjusted VMD model with elastic cut

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubnicka, S.; Furdik, I.; Meshcheryakov, V.A.

    1987-01-01

    The vector dominance model (VMD) parametrization of pion form factor is transformed into the pion c.m. momentum variable. Then the corresponding VMD poles are shifted by means of the nonzero widths of vector mesons from the real axis into the complex region of the second sheet of Riemann surface generated by the square-root two-pion-threshold branchpoint. A realistic description of all existing data is achieved in the framework of this adjusted VMD model and the presence of ρ'(1250) and ρ''(1600) mesons in e + e - →π + π - is confirmed by determination of their parameters directly from the fit of data

  18. Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

    2017-12-01

    As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

  19. Remote Sensing-based Methodologies for Snow Model Adjustments in Operational Streamflow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Miller, W. P.; Bernard, B.; Stokes, M.; Oaida, C. M.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water management agencies rely on hydrologic forecasts issued by operational agencies such as NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate research-oriented, remotely-sensed snow data into CBRFC operations and to improve the accuracy of CBRFC forecasts. The partnership has yielded valuable analysis of snow surface albedo as represented in JPL's MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS) data, across the CBRFC's area of responsibility. When dust layers within a snowpack emerge, reducing the snow surface albedo, the snowmelt rate may accelerate. The CBRFC operational snow model (SNOW17) is a temperature-index model that lacks explicit representation of snowpack surface albedo. CBRFC forecasters monitor MODDRFS data for emerging dust layers and may manually adjust SNOW17 melt rates. A technique was needed for efficient and objective incorporation of the MODDRFS data into SNOW17. Initial development focused in Colorado, where dust-on-snow events frequently occur. CBRFC forecasters used retrospective JPL-CBRFC analysis and developed a quantitative relationship between MODDRFS data and mean areal temperature (MAT) data. The relationship was used to generate adjusted, MODDRFS-informed input for SNOW17. Impacts of the MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT adjustment method on snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction varied spatially and with characteristics of the dust deposition events. The largest improvements occurred in southwestern Colorado, in years with intense dust deposition events. Application of the method in other regions of Colorado and in "low dust" years resulted in minimal impact. The MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT technique will be implemented in CBRFC operations in late 2015, prior to spring 2016 runoff. Collaborative investigation of remote sensing-based adjustment methods for the CBRFC operational hydrologic forecasting environment will continue over the next several years.

  20. Dynamically adjustable foot-ground contact model to estimate ground reaction force during walking and running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Yihwan; Jung, Moonki; Ryu, Jiseon; Yoon, Sukhoon; Park, Sang-Kyoon; Koo, Seungbum

    2016-03-01

    Human dynamic models have been used to estimate joint kinetics during various activities. Kinetics estimation is in demand in sports and clinical applications where data on external forces, such as the ground reaction force (GRF), are not available. The purpose of this study was to estimate the GRF during gait by utilizing distance- and velocity-dependent force models between the foot and ground in an inverse-dynamics-based optimization. Ten males were tested as they walked at four different speeds on a force plate-embedded treadmill system. The full-GRF model whose foot-ground reaction elements were dynamically adjusted according to vertical displacement and anterior-posterior speed between the foot and ground was implemented in a full-body skeletal model. The model estimated the vertical and shear forces of the GRF from body kinematics. The shear-GRF model with dynamically adjustable shear reaction elements according to the input vertical force was also implemented in the foot of a full-body skeletal model. Shear forces of the GRF were estimated from body kinematics, vertical GRF, and center of pressure. The estimated full GRF had the lowest root mean square (RMS) errors at the slow walking speed (1.0m/s) with 4.2, 1.3, and 5.7% BW for anterior-posterior, medial-lateral, and vertical forces, respectively. The estimated shear forces were not significantly different between the full-GRF and shear-GRF models, but the RMS errors of the estimated knee joint kinetics were significantly lower for the shear-GRF model. Providing COP and vertical GRF with sensors, such as an insole-type pressure mat, can help estimate shear forces of the GRF and increase accuracy for estimation of joint kinetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Between and beyond additivity and non-additivity : the statistical modelling of genotype by environment interaction in plant breeding

    OpenAIRE

    Eeuwijk, van, F.A.

    1996-01-01

    In plant breeding it is a common observation to see genotypes react differently to environmental changes. This phenomenon is called genotype by environment interaction. Many statistical approaches for analysing genotype by environment interaction rely heavily on the analysis of variance model. Genotype by environment interaction is then taken to be equivalent to non-additivity. This thesis criticizes the analysis of variance approach. Modelling genotype by environment interaction by non-addit...

  2. Family support and acceptance, gay male identity formation, and psychological adjustment: a path model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizur, Y; Ziv, M

    2001-01-01

    While heterosexist family undermining has been demonstrated to be a developmental risk factor in the life of persons with same-gender orientation, the issue of protective family factors is both controversial and relatively neglected. In this study of Israeli gay males (N = 114), we focused on the interrelations of family support, family acceptance and family knowledge of gay orientation, and gay male identity formation, and their effects on mental health and self-esteem. A path model was proposed based on the hypotheses that family support, family acceptance, family knowledge, and gay identity formation have an impact on psychological adjustment, and that family support has an effect on gay identity formation that is mediated by family acceptance. The assessment of gay identity formation was based on an established stage model that was streamlined for cross-cultural practice by defining three basic processes of same-gender identity formation: self-definition, self-acceptance, and disclosure (Elizur & Mintzer, 2001). The testing of our conceptual path model demonstrated an excellent fit with the data. An alternative model that hypothesized effects of gay male identity on family acceptance and family knowledge did not fit the data. Interpreting these results, we propose that the main effect of family support/acceptance on gay identity is related to the process of disclosure, and that both general family support and family acceptance of same-gender orientation play a significant role in the psychological adjustment of gay men.

  3. Additional Research Needs to Support the GENII Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-11-01

    In the course of evaluating the current parameter needs for the GENII Version 2 code (Snyder et al. 2013), areas of possible improvement for both the data and the underlying models have been identified. As the data review was implemented, PNNL staff identified areas where the models can be improved both to accommodate the locally significant pathways identified and also to incorporate newer models. The areas are general data needs for the existing models and improved formulations for the pathway models.

  4. Analisis Portofolio Optimum Saham Syariah Menggunakan Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nila Cahyati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Investasi mempunyai karakteristik antara return dan resiko. Pembentukan portofolio optimal digunakan untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan dan meminimumkan resiko. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM merupakan metode pengembangan baru dari CAPM yang dipengaruhi likuiditas. Indikator likuiditas apabila digabungkan dengan metode CAPM dapat membantu memaksimalkan return dan meminimumkan resiko. Tujuan penelitian adalah membandingkan expected retun dan resiko saham serta mengetahui proporsi pada portofolio optimal. Sampel yang digunakan merupakan saham JII (Jakarta Islamic Index  periode Januari 2013 – November 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa expected return portofolio LCAPM sebesar 0,0956 dengan resiko 0,0043 yang membentuk proporsi saham AALI (55,19% dan saham PGAS (44,81%.

  5. Empiric model for mean generation time adjustment factor for classic point kinetics equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goes, David A.B.V. de; Martinez, Aquilino S.; Goncalves, Alessandro da C., E-mail: david.goes@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: aquilino@lmp.ufrj.br, E-mail: alessandro@con.ufrj.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-11-01

    Point reactor kinetics equations are the easiest way to observe the neutron production time behavior in a nuclear reactor. These equations are derived from the neutron transport equation using an approximation called Fick's law leading to a set of first order differential equations. The main objective of this study is to review classic point kinetics equation in order to approximate its results to the case when it is considered the time variation of the neutron currents. The computational modeling used for the calculations is based on the finite difference method. The results obtained with this model are compared with the reference model and then it is determined an empirical adjustment factor that modifies the point reactor kinetics equation to the real scenario. (author)

  6. Empiric model for mean generation time adjustment factor for classic point kinetics equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goes, David A.B.V. de; Martinez, Aquilino S.; Goncalves, Alessandro da C.

    2017-01-01

    Point reactor kinetics equations are the easiest way to observe the neutron production time behavior in a nuclear reactor. These equations are derived from the neutron transport equation using an approximation called Fick's law leading to a set of first order differential equations. The main objective of this study is to review classic point kinetics equation in order to approximate its results to the case when it is considered the time variation of the neutron currents. The computational modeling used for the calculations is based on the finite difference method. The results obtained with this model are compared with the reference model and then it is determined an empirical adjustment factor that modifies the point reactor kinetics equation to the real scenario. (author)

  7. PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

  8. Automatic parameter estimation of multicompartmental neuron models via minimization of trace error with control adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookings, Ted; Goeritz, Marie L; Marder, Eve

    2014-11-01

    We describe a new technique to fit conductance-based neuron models to intracellular voltage traces from isolated biological neurons. The biological neurons are recorded in current-clamp with pink (1/f) noise injected to perturb the activity of the neuron. The new algorithm finds a set of parameters that allows a multicompartmental model neuron to match the recorded voltage trace. Attempting to match a recorded voltage trace directly has a well-known problem: mismatch in the timing of action potentials between biological and model neuron is inevitable and results in poor phenomenological match between the model and data. Our approach avoids this by applying a weak control adjustment to the model to promote alignment during the fitting procedure. This approach is closely related to the control theoretic concept of a Luenberger observer. We tested this approach on synthetic data and on data recorded from an anterior gastric receptor neuron from the stomatogastric ganglion of the crab Cancer borealis. To test the flexibility of this approach, the synthetic data were constructed with conductance models that were different from the ones used in the fitting model. For both synthetic and biological data, the resultant models had good spike-timing accuracy. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  9. Asymmetric adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2010-01-01

    A method of adjusting a signal processing parameter for a first hearing aid and a second hearing aid forming parts of a binaural hearing aid system to be worn by a user is provided. The binaural hearing aid system comprises a user specific model representing a desired asymmetry between a first ear

  10. Siblings' Perceptions of Differential Treatment, Fairness, and Jealousy and Adolescent Adjustment: A Moderated Indirect Effects Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeser, Meghan K; Whiteman, Shawn D; McHale, Susan M

    2016-08-01

    Youth's perception of parents' differential treatment (PDT) are associated with maladjustment during adolescence. Although the direct relations between PDT and youth's maladjustment have been well established, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain unclear. We addressed this gap by examining whether sibling jealousy accounted for the links between PDT and youth's depressive symptoms, self-worth, and risky behaviors. Additionally, we examined whether youth's perceptions of fairness regarding their treatment as well as the gender constellation of the dyad moderated these indirect relations (i.e., moderated-indirect effects). Participants were first- and second-born adolescent siblings ( M = 15.96, SD = .72 years for older siblings, M = 13.48, SD = 1.02 years for younger siblings) and their parents from 197 working and middle class European American families. Data were collected via home interviews. A series of Conditional Process Analyses revealed significant indirect effects of PDT through sibling jealousy to all three adjustment outcomes. Furthermore, perceptions of fairness moderated the relations between PDT and jealousy, such that the indirect effects were only significant at low (-1 SD ) and average levels of fairness. At high levels of fairness (+1 SD ) there was no association between PDT, jealousy, and youth adjustment. Taken together, results indicate that youth and parents would benefit from engaging in clear communication regarding the reasoning for the occurrence of differential treatment, likely maximizing youth and parent perceptions of that treatment as being fair, and in turn mitigating sibling jealousy and maladjustment.

  11. Siblings’ Perceptions of Differential Treatment, Fairness, and Jealousy and Adolescent Adjustment: A Moderated Indirect Effects Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeser, Meghan K.; Whiteman, Shawn D.; McHale, Susan M.

    2016-01-01

    Youth's perception of parents’ differential treatment (PDT) are associated with maladjustment during adolescence. Although the direct relations between PDT and youth's maladjustment have been well established, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain unclear. We addressed this gap by examining whether sibling jealousy accounted for the links between PDT and youth's depressive symptoms, self-worth, and risky behaviors. Additionally, we examined whether youth's perceptions of fairness regarding their treatment as well as the gender constellation of the dyad moderated these indirect relations (i.e., moderated-indirect effects). Participants were first- and second-born adolescent siblings (M = 15.96, SD = .72 years for older siblings, M = 13.48, SD = 1.02 years for younger siblings) and their parents from 197 working and middle class European American families. Data were collected via home interviews. A series of Conditional Process Analyses revealed significant indirect effects of PDT through sibling jealousy to all three adjustment outcomes. Furthermore, perceptions of fairness moderated the relations between PDT and jealousy, such that the indirect effects were only significant at low (−1 SD) and average levels of fairness. At high levels of fairness (+1 SD) there was no association between PDT, jealousy, and youth adjustment. Taken together, results indicate that youth and parents would benefit from engaging in clear communication regarding the reasoning for the occurrence of differential treatment, likely maximizing youth and parent perceptions of that treatment as being fair, and in turn mitigating sibling jealousy and maladjustment. PMID:27867295

  12. Generalized bi-additive modelling for categorical data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick); A.J. Koning (Alex)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractGeneralized linear modelling (GLM) is a versatile technique, which may be viewed as a generalization of well-known techniques such as least squares regression, analysis of variance, loglinear modelling, and logistic regression. In may applications, low-order interaction (such as

  13. A new multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson model with applications to biomedicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yin; Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Yuen, Kam Chuen

    2018-05-25

    Recently, although advances were made on modeling multivariate count data, existing models really has several limitations: (i) The multivariate Poisson log-normal model (Aitchison and Ho, ) cannot be used to fit multivariate count data with excess zero-vectors; (ii) The multivariate zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution (Li et al., 1999) cannot be used to model zero-truncated/deflated count data and it is difficult to apply to high-dimensional cases; (iii) The Type I multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson (ZAP) distribution (Tian et al., 2017) could only model multivariate count data with a special correlation structure for random components that are all positive or negative. In this paper, we first introduce a new multivariate ZAP distribution, based on a multivariate Poisson distribution, which allows the correlations between components with a more flexible dependency structure, that is some of the correlation coefficients could be positive while others could be negative. We then develop its important distributional properties, and provide efficient statistical inference methods for multivariate ZAP model with or without covariates. Two real data examples in biomedicine are used to illustrate the proposed methods. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

    2002-01-01

    Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Probpayment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

  15. Multiple Imputation of Predictor Variables Using Generalized Additive Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Roel; van Buuren, Stef; Spiess, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The sensitivity of multiple imputation methods to deviations from their distributional assumptions is investigated using simulations, where the parameters of scientific interest are the coefficients of a linear regression model, and values in predictor variables are missing at random. The

  16. Adjusting kinematics and kinetics in a feedback-controlled toe walking model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olenšek Andrej

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In clinical gait assessment, the correct interpretation of gait kinematics and kinetics has a decisive impact on the success of the therapeutic programme. Due to the vast amount of information from which primary anomalies should be identified and separated from secondary compensatory changes, as well as the biomechanical complexity and redundancy of the human locomotion system, this task is considerably challenging and requires the attention of an experienced interdisciplinary team of experts. The ongoing research in the field of biomechanics suggests that mathematical modeling may facilitate this task. This paper explores the possibility of generating a family of toe walking gait patterns by systematically changing selected parameters of a feedback-controlled model. Methods From the selected clinical case of toe walking we identified typical toe walking characteristics and encoded them as a set of gait-oriented control objectives to be achieved in a feedback-controlled walking model. They were defined as fourth order polynomials and imposed via feedback control at the within-step control level. At the between-step control level, stance leg lengthening velocity at the end of the single support phase was adaptively adjusted after each step so as to facilitate gait velocity control. Each time the gait velocity settled at the desired value, selected intra-step gait characteristics were modified by adjusting the polynomials so as to mimic the effect of a typical therapeutical intervention - inhibitory casting. Results By systematically adjusting the set of control parameters we were able to generate a family of gait kinematic and kinetic patterns that exhibit similar principal toe walking characteristics, as they were recorded by means of an instrumented gait analysis system in the selected clinical case of toe walking. We further acknowledge that they to some extent follow similar improvement tendencies as those which one can

  17. Primary circuit iodine model addition to IMPAIR-3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osetek, D J; Louie, D L.Y. [Los Alamos Technical Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guntay, S; Cripps, R [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1996-12-01

    As part of a continuing effort to provide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Reactor Severe Accident Program (ARSAP) with complete iodine analysis capability, a task was undertaken to expand the modeling of IMPAIR-3, an iodine chemistry code. The expanded code will enable the DOE to include detailed iodine behavior in the assessment of severe accident source terms used in the licensing of U.S. Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs). IMPAIR-3 was developed at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland, and has been used by ARSAP for the past two years to analyze containment iodine chemistry for ALWR source term analyses. IMPAIR-3 is primarily a containment code but the iodine chemistry inside the primary circuit (the Reactor Coolant System or RCS) may influence the iodine species released into the the containment; therefore, a RCS iodine chemistry model must be implemented in IMPAIR-3 to ensure thorough source term analysis. The ARSAP source term team and the PSI IMPAIR-3 developers are working together to accomplish this task. This cooperation is divided into two phases. Phase I, taking place in 1996, involves developing a stand-alone RCS iodine chemistry program called IMPRCS (IMPAIR -Reactor Coolant System). This program models a number of the chemical and physical processes of iodine that are thought to be important at conditions of high temperature and pressure in the RCS. In Phase II, which is tentatively scheduled for 1997, IMPRCS will be implemented as a subroutine in IMPAIR-3. To ensure an efficient calculation, an interface/tracking system will be developed to control the use of the RCS model from the containment model. These two models will be interfaced in such a way that once the iodine is released from the RCS, it will no longer be tracked by the RCS model but will be tracked by the containment model. All RCS thermal-hydraulic parameters will be provided by other codes. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  18. Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

    2012-05-01

    The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

  19. Measurement of the Economic Growth and Add-on of the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth.The paper aim is the economic growth measurement and add-on of the R.M. Solow adjusted model.

  20. Newton's constant from a minimal length: additional models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahlmann, Hanno

    2011-01-01

    We follow arguments of Verlinde (2010 arXiv:1001.0785 [hep-th]) and Klinkhamer (2010 arXiv:1006.2094 [hep-th]), and construct two models of the microscopic theory of a holographic screen that allow for the thermodynamical derivation of Newton's law, with Newton's constant expressed in terms of a minimal length scale l contained in the area spectrum of the microscopic theory. One of the models is loosely related to the quantum structure of surfaces and isolated horizons in loop quantum gravity. Our investigation shows that the conclusions reached by Klinkhamer regarding the new length scale l seem to be generic in all their qualitative aspects.

  1. Adjustment of automatic control systems of production facilities at coal processing plants using multivariant physico- mathematical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evtushenko, V. F.; Myshlyaev, L. P.; Makarov, G. V.; Ivushkin, K. A.; Burkova, E. V.

    2016-10-01

    The structure of multi-variant physical and mathematical models of control system is offered as well as its application for adjustment of automatic control system (ACS) of production facilities on the example of coal processing plant.

  2. Analysis of time to event outcomes in randomized controlled trials by generalized additive models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Argyropoulos

    Full Text Available Randomized Controlled Trials almost invariably utilize the hazard ratio calculated with a Cox proportional hazard model as a treatment efficacy measure. Despite the widespread adoption of HRs, these provide a limited understanding of the treatment effect and may even provide a biased estimate when the assumption of proportional hazards in the Cox model is not verified by the trial data. Additional treatment effect measures on the survival probability or the time scale may be used to supplement HRs but a framework for the simultaneous generation of these measures is lacking.By splitting follow-up time at the nodes of a Gauss Lobatto numerical quadrature rule, techniques for Poisson Generalized Additive Models (PGAM can be adopted for flexible hazard modeling. Straightforward simulation post-estimation transforms PGAM estimates for the log hazard into estimates of the survival function. These in turn were used to calculate relative and absolute risks or even differences in restricted mean survival time between treatment arms. We illustrate our approach with extensive simulations and in two trials: IPASS (in which the proportionality of hazards was violated and HEMO a long duration study conducted under evolving standards of care on a heterogeneous patient population.PGAM can generate estimates of the survival function and the hazard ratio that are essentially identical to those obtained by Kaplan Meier curve analysis and the Cox model. PGAMs can simultaneously provide multiple measures of treatment efficacy after a single data pass. Furthermore, supported unadjusted (overall treatment effect but also subgroup and adjusted analyses, while incorporating multiple time scales and accounting for non-proportional hazards in survival data.By augmenting the HR conventionally reported, PGAMs have the potential to support the inferential goals of multiple stakeholders involved in the evaluation and appraisal of clinical trial results under proportional and

  3. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  4. Moment based model predictive control for systems with additive uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saltik, M.B.; Ozkan, L.; Weiland, S.; Ludlage, J.H.A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model predictive control (MPC) strategy based on the moments of the state variables and the cost functional. The statistical properties of the state predictions are calculated through the open loop iteration of dynamics and used in the formulation of MPC cost function. We

  5. Technical Work Plan for: Additional Multiscale Thermohydrologic Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. Kirstein

    2006-01-01

    The primary objective of Revision 04 of the MSTHM report is to provide TSPA with revised repository-wide MSTHM analyses that incorporate updated percolation flux distributions, revised hydrologic properties, updated IEDs, and information pertaining to the emplacement of transport, aging, and disposal (TAD) canisters. The updated design information is primarily related to the incorporation of TAD canisters, but also includes updates related to superseded IEDs describing emplacement drift cross-sectional geometry and layout. The intended use of the results of Revision 04 of the MSTHM report, as described in this TWP, is to predict the evolution of TH conditions (temperature, relative humidity, liquid-phase saturation, and liquid-phase flux) at specified locations within emplacement drifts and in the adjoining near-field host rock along all emplacement drifts throughout the repository. This information directly supports the TSPA for the nominal and seismic scenarios. The revised repository-wide analyses are required to incorporate updated parameters and design information and to extend those analyses out to 1,000,000 years. Note that the previous MSTHM analyses reported in Revision 03 of Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173944]) only extend out to 20,000 years. The updated parameters are the percolation flux distributions, including incorporation of post-10,000-year distributions, and updated calibrated hydrologic property values for the host-rock units. The applied calibrated hydrologic properties will be an updated version of those available in Calibrated Properties Model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169857]). These updated properties will be documented in an Appendix of Revision 03 of UZ Flow Models and Submodels (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169861]). The updated calibrated properties are applied because they represent the latest available information. The reasonableness of applying the updated calibrated' properties to the prediction of near-fieldin-drift TH conditions

  6. ELECTRICAL CONDUCTIVITY OF SOYBEAN SEED CULTIVARS AND ADJUSTED MODELS OF LEAKAGE CURVES ALONG THE TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADRIANA RITA SALINAS

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to study the behavior of ten soybean [Glycine max (L. Merr.] cultivars using the electrical conductivity (EC test by the comparison of curves of the accumulative electrolyte leakage along the time and to establish the statistical model that allow the best adjust of the curves. Ten soybean cultivars were used and they were mechanically harvested in 2004 in the EEA Oliveros, Santa Fe, Argentina. Measurements of EC were made for 100 individual seeds of each cultivar during 20 hours of immersion at intervals of 1 hour using an equipment that permit an individual seed analysis (Seed Automatic Analyzer SAD 9000S. There were proposed two statistical models to study the EC along the time of the 10 cultivars studied using SAS Statistics Program, to select the model that better allow us to understand the EC behavior along the time. Model 1 allowed to make comparisons of EC along the time between cultivars and to study the influence of the production environment on the physiological quality of soybean seeds. The time to reach the stabilization of the EC must not be lower than 19 hours for the different cultivars.

  7. Family caregiver adjustment and stroke survivor impairment: A path analytic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Anna; Hautzinger, Martin; Elliott, Timothy R; Schilling, Oliver; Becker, Clemens; Pfeiffer, Klaus

    2017-05-01

    Depressive symptoms are a common problem among family caregivers of stroke survivors. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between care recipient's impairment and caregiver depression, and determine the possible mediating effects of caregiver negative problem-orientation, mastery, and leisure time satisfaction. The evaluated model was derived from Pearlin's stress process model of caregiver adjustment. We analyzed baseline data from 122 strained family members who were assisting stroke survivors in Germany for a minimum of 6 months and who consented to participate in a randomized clinical trial. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. The cross-sectional data were analyzed using path analysis. The results show an adequate fit of the model to the data, χ2(1, N = 122) = 0.17, p = .68; comparative fit index = 1.00; root mean square error of approximation: p caregiver depressive symptoms. Results indicate that caregivers at risk for depression reported a negative problem orientation, low caregiving mastery, and low leisure time satisfaction. The situation is particularly affected by the frequency of stroke survivor problematic behavior, and by the degree of their impairments in activities of daily living. The findings provide empirical support for the Pearlin's stress model and emphasize how important it is to target these mediators in health promotion interventions for family caregivers of stroke survivors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Thermal modelling of extrusion based additive manufacturing of composite materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mathias Laustsen; Sonne, Mads Rostgaard; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    One of the hottest topics regarding manufacturing these years is additive manufacturing (AM). AM is a young branch of manufacturing techniques, which by nature is disruptive due to its completely different manufacturing approach, wherein material is added instead of removed. By adding material...... layer by layer, mould and customised tooling requirements from the conventional manufacturing are reduced or removed, which leads to increased customisation options and enables new part complexities without increasing the manufacturing cost. AM hence enables customised small volume productions...... of composite parts not feasible by conventional manufacturing techniques. This sets up new requirements to the part verification and validation, while conventional destructive tests become too expensive. This initial study aims to investigate alternative options to this destructive testing by increasing...

  9. Optimal Scheme Selection of Agricultural Production Structure Adjustment - Based on DEA Model; Punjab (Pakistan)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zeeshan Ahmad; Meng Jun; Muhammad Abdullah; Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq; Majid Lateef; Imran Khan

    2015-01-01

    This paper used the modern evaluation method of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) to assess the comparative efficiency and then on the basis of this among multiple schemes chose the optimal scheme of agricultural production structure adjustment. Based on the results of DEA model, we dissected scale advantages of each discretionary scheme or plan. We examined scale advantages of each discretionary scheme, tested profoundly a definitive purpose behind not-DEA efficient, which elucidated the system and methodology to enhance these discretionary plans. At the end, another method had been proposed to rank and select the optimal scheme. The research was important to guide the practice if the modification of agricultural production industrial structure was carried on.

  10. Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2016-01-01

    Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

  11. A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Subdistribution with Covariates-adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Peng; Eriksson, Frank; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight......With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution...... and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight...

  12. Short term load forecasting technique based on the seasonal exponential adjustment method and the regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jie; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Dong, Yao; Lu, Xiaoxiao

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The seasonal and trend items of the data series are forecasted separately. ► Seasonal item in the data series is verified by the Kendall τ correlation testing. ► Different regression models are applied to the trend item forecasting. ► We examine the superiority of the combined models by the quartile value comparison. ► Paired-sample T test is utilized to confirm the superiority of the combined models. - Abstract: For an energy-limited economy system, it is crucial to forecast load demand accurately. This paper devotes to 1-week-ahead daily load forecasting approach in which load demand series are predicted by employing the information of days before being similar to that of the forecast day. As well as in many nonlinear systems, seasonal item and trend item are coexisting in load demand datasets. In this paper, the existing of the seasonal item in the load demand data series is firstly verified according to the Kendall τ correlation testing method. Then in the belief of the separate forecasting to the seasonal item and the trend item would improve the forecasting accuracy, hybrid models by combining seasonal exponential adjustment method (SEAM) with the regression methods are proposed in this paper, where SEAM and the regression models are employed to seasonal and trend items forecasting respectively. Comparisons of the quartile values as well as the mean absolute percentage error values demonstrate this forecasting technique can significantly improve the accuracy though models applied to the trend item forecasting are eleven different ones. This superior performance of this separate forecasting technique is further confirmed by the paired-sample T tests

  13. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  14. ADJUSTMENT OF MORPHOMETRIC PARAMETERS OF WATER BASINS BASED ON DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasil'nikov Vitaliy Mikhaylovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors argue that effective use of water resources requires accurate morphometric characteristics of water basins. Accurate parameters are needed to analyze their condition, and to assure their appropriate control and operation. Today multiple water basins need their morphometric characteristics to be adjusted and properly stored. The procedure employed so far is based on plane geometric horizontals depicted onto topographic maps. It is described in the procedural guidelines issued in respect of the «Application of water resource regulations governing the operation of waterworks facilities of power plants». The technology described there is obsolete due to the availability of specialized software. The computer technique is based on a digital terrain model. The authors provide an overview of the technique implemented at Rybinsk and Gorkiy water basins in this article. Thus, the digital terrain model generated on the basis of the field data is used at Gorkiy water basin, while the model based on maps and charts is applied at Rybinsk water basin. The authors believe that the software technique can be applied to any other water basin on the basis of the analysis and comparison of morphometric characteristics of the two water basins.

  15. Modeling of Cementitious Representative Volume Element with Additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahzamanian, M. M.; Basirun, W. J.

    CEMHYD3D has been employed to simulate the representative volume element (RVE) of cementitious systems (Type I cement) containing fly ash (Class F) through a voxel-based finite element analysis (FEA) approach. Three-dimensional microstructures composed of voxels are generated for a heterogeneous cementitious material consisting of various constituent phases. The primary focus is to simulate a cementitious RVE containing fly ash and to present the homogenized macromechanical properties obtained from its analysis. Simple kinematic uniform boundary conditions as well as periodic boundary conditions were imposed on the RVE to obtain the principal and shear moduli. Our current work considers the effect of fly ash percentage on the elastic properties based on the mass and volume replacements. RVEs with lengths of 50, 100 and 200μm at different degrees of hydration are generated, and the elastic properties are modeled and simulated. In general, the elastic properties of a cementitious RVE with fly ash replacement for cement based on mass and volume differ from each other. Moreover, the finite element (FE) mesh density effect is studied. Results indicate that mechanical properties decrease with increasing mesh density.

  16. Ice loading model for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in the Barents Sea constrained by GRACE gravity observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Root, Bart; Tarasov, Lev; van der Wal, Wouter

    2014-05-01

    The global ice budget is still under discussion because the observed 120-130 m eustatic sea level equivalent since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) can not be explained by the current knowledge of land-ice melt after the LGM. One possible location for the missing ice is the Barents Sea Region, which was completely covered with ice during the LGM. This is deduced from relative sea level observations on Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya and the North coast of Scandinavia. However, there are no observations in the middle of the Barents Sea that capture the post-glacial uplift. With increased precision and longer time series of monthly gravity observations of the GRACE satellite mission it is possible to constrain Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in the center of the Barents Sea. This study investigates the extra constraint provided by GRACE data for modeling the past ice geometry in the Barents Sea. We use CSR release 5 data from February 2003 to July 2013. The GRACE data is corrected for the past 10 years of secular decline of glacier ice on Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya and Frans Joseph Land. With numerical GIA models for a radially symmetric Earth, we model the expected gravity changes and compare these with the GRACE observations after smoothing with a 250 km Gaussian filter. The comparisons show that for the viscosity profile VM5a, ICE-5G has too strong a gravity signal compared to GRACE. The regional calibrated ice sheet model (GLAC) of Tarasov appears to fit the amplitude of the GRACE signal. However, the GRACE data are very sensitive to the ice-melt correction, especially for Novaya Zemlya. Furthermore, the ice mass should be more concentrated to the middle of the Barents Sea. Alternative viscosity models confirm these conclusions.

  17. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  18. Location memory for dots in polygons versus cities in regions: evaluating the category adjustment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Alinda; Montello, Daniel R; Burte, Heather

    2012-09-01

    We conducted 3 experiments to examine the category adjustment model (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan, 1991) in circumstances in which the category boundaries were irregular schematized polygons made from outlines of maps. For the first time, accuracy was tested when only perceptual and/or existing long-term memory information about identical locations was cued. Participants from Alberta, Canada and California received 1 of 3 conditions: dots-only, in which a dot appeared within the polygon, and after a 4-s dynamic mask the empty polygon appeared and the participant indicated where the dot had been; dots-and-names, in which participants were told that the first polygon represented Alberta/California and that each dot was in the correct location for the city whose name appeared outside the polygon; and names-only, in which there was no first polygon, and participants clicked on the city locations from extant memory alone. Location recall in the dots-only and dots-and-names conditions did not differ from each other and had small but significant directional errors that pointed away from the centroids of the polygons. In contrast, the names-only condition had large and significant directional errors that pointed toward the centroids. Experiments 2 and 3 eliminated the distribution of stimuli and overall screen position as causal factors. The data suggest that in the "classic" category adjustment paradigm, it is difficult to determine a priori when Bayesian cue combination is applicable, making Bayesian analysis less useful as a theoretical approach to location estimation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  20. Positive Adjustment Among American Repatriated Prisoners of the Vietnam War: Modeling the Long-Term Effects of Captivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Daniel W; King, Lynda A; Park, Crystal L; Lee, Lewina O; Kaiser, Anica Pless; Spiro, Avron; Moore, Jeffrey L; Kaloupek, Danny G; Keane, Terence M

    2015-11-01

    A longitudinal lifespan model of factors contributing to later-life positive adjustment was tested on 567 American repatriated prisoners from the Vietnam War. This model encompassed demographics at time of capture and attributes assessed after return to the U.S. (reports of torture and mental distress) and approximately 3 decades later (later-life stressors, perceived social support, positive appraisal of military experiences, and positive adjustment). Age and education at time of capture and physical torture were associated with repatriation mental distress, which directly predicted poorer adjustment 30 years later. Physical torture also had a salutary effect, enhancing later-life positive appraisals of military experiences. Later-life events were directly and indirectly (through concerns about retirement) associated with positive adjustment. Results suggest that the personal resources of older age and more education and early-life adverse experiences can have cascading effects over the lifespan to impact well-being in both positive and negative ways.

  1. Modeling of non-additive mixture properties using the Online CHEmical database and Modeling environment (OCHEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oprisiu Ioana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Online Chemical Modeling Environment (OCHEM, http://ochem.eu is a web-based platform that provides tools for automation of typical steps necessary to create a predictive QSAR/QSPR model. The platform consists of two major subsystems: a database of experimental measurements and a modeling framework. So far, OCHEM has been limited to the processing of individual compounds. In this work, we extended OCHEM with a new ability to store and model properties of binary non-additive mixtures. The developed system is publicly accessible, meaning that any user on the Web can store new data for binary mixtures and develop models to predict their non-additive properties. The database already contains almost 10,000 data points for the density, bubble point, and azeotropic behavior of binary mixtures. For these data, we developed models for both qualitative (azeotrope/zeotrope and quantitative endpoints (density and bubble points using different learning methods and specially developed descriptors for mixtures. The prediction performance of the models was similar to or more accurate than results reported in previous studies. Thus, we have developed and made publicly available a powerful system for modeling mixtures of chemical compounds on the Web.

  2. [Construction and validation of a multidimensional model of students' adjustment to college context].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Ana Paula; Guisande, M Adelina; Diniz, António M; Almeida, Leandro S

    2006-05-01

    This article presents a model of interaction of personal and contextual variables in the prediction of academic performance and psychosocial development of Portuguese college students. The sample consists of 560 first-year college students of the University of Minho. The path analysis results suggest that initial expectations of the students' involvement in academic life constituted an effective predictor of their involvement during their first year; as well as the social climate of the classroom influenced their involvement, well-being and levels of satisfaction obtained. However, these relationships were not strong enough to influence the criterion variables integrated in the model (academic performance and psychosocial development). Academic performance was predicted by the high school grades and college entrance examination scores, and the level of psychosocial development was determined by the level of development showed at the time they entered college. Though more research is needed, these results point to the importance of students' pre-college characteristics when we are considering the quality of their college adjustment process.

  3. Adjusting multistate capture-recapture models for misclassification bias: manatee breeding proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2003-01-01

    Matrix population models are important tools for research and management of populations. Estimating the parameters of these models is an important step in applying them to real populations. Multistate capture-recapture methods have provided a useful means for estimating survival and parameters of transition between locations or life history states but have mostly relied on the assumption that the state occupied by each detected animal is known with certainty. Nevertheless, in some cases animals can be misclassified. Using multiple capture sessions within each period of interest, we developed a method that adjusts estimates of transition probabilities for bias due to misclassification. We applied this method to 10 years of sighting data for a population of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in order to estimate the annual probability of transition from nonbreeding to breeding status. Some sighted females were unequivocally classified as breeders because they were clearly accompanied by a first-year calf. The remainder were classified, sometimes erroneously, as nonbreeders because an attendant first-year calf was not observed or was classified as more than one year old. We estimated a conditional breeding probability of 0.31 + 0.04 (estimate + 1 SE) when we ignored misclassification bias, and 0.61 + 0.09 when we accounted for misclassification.

  4. Adjustable collimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, R.W.; Covic, J.; Leininger, G.

    1981-01-01

    In a rotating fan beam tomographic scanner there is included an adjustable collimator and shutter assembly. The assembly includes a fan angle collimation cylinder having a plurality of different length slots through which the beam may pass for adjusting the fan angle of the beam. It also includes a beam thickness cylinder having a plurality of slots of different widths for adjusting the thickness of the beam. Further, some of the slots have filter materials mounted therein so that the operator may select from a plurality of filters. Also disclosed is a servo motor system which allows the operator to select the desired fan angle, beam thickness and filter from a remote location. An additional feature is a failsafe shutter assembly which includes a spring biased shutter cylinder mounted in the collimation cylinders. The servo motor control circuit checks several system conditions before the shutter is rendered openable. Further, the circuit cuts off the radiation if the shutter fails to open or close properly. A still further feature is a reference radiation intensity monitor which includes a tuning-fork shaped light conducting element having a scintillation crystal mounted on each tine. The monitor is placed adjacent the collimator between it and the source with the pair of crystals to either side of the fan beam

  5. Aggregate Demand–Inflation Adjustment Model Applied to Southeast European Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Apostolov Mico

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Applying IS-MP-IA model and the Taylor rule to selected Southeast European economies (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia we find that the change of effective exchange rate positively affects output, while the change of the world interest rate negatively affects output or it does not affect the output at all, and additional world output would help to increase output of the selected economies.

  6. Models of traumatic experiences and children's psychological adjustment: the roles of perceived parenting and the children's own resources and activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punamäki, R L; Qouta, S; el Sarraj, E

    1997-08-01

    The relations between traumatic events, perceived parenting styles, children's resources, political activity, and psychological adjustment were examined among 108 Palestinian boys and girls of 11-12 years of age. The results showed that exposure to traumatic events increased psychological adjustment problems directly and via 2 mediating paths. First, the more traumatic events children had experienced, the more negative parenting they experienced. And, the poorer they perceived parenting, the more they suffered from high neuroticism and low self-esteem. Second, the more traumatic events children had experienced, the more political activity they showed, and the more active they were, the more they suffered from psychological adjustment problems. Good perceived parenting protected children's psychological adjustment by making them less vulnerable in two ways. First, traumatic events decreased their intellectual, creative, and cognitive resources, and a lack of resources predicted many psychological adjustment problems in a model excluding perceived parenting. Second, political activity increased psychological adjustment problems in the same model, but not in the model including good parenting.

  7. Effect of Hydrogen Addition on Methane HCCI Engine Ignition Timing and Emissions Using a Multi-zone Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zi-han; Wang, Chun-mei; Tang, Hua-xin; Zuo, Cheng-ji; Xu, Hong-ming

    2009-06-01

    Ignition timing control is of great importance in homogeneous charge compression ignition engines. The effect of hydrogen addition on methane combustion was investigated using a CHEMKIN multi-zone model. Results show that hydrogen addition advances ignition timing and enhances peak pressure and temperature. A brief analysis of chemical kinetics of methane blending hydrogen is also performed in order to investigate the scope of its application, and the analysis suggests that OH radical plays an important role in the oxidation. Hydrogen addition increases NOx while decreasing HC and CO emissions. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) also advances ignition timing; however, its effects on emissions are generally the opposite. By adjusting the hydrogen addition and EGR rate, the ignition timing can be regulated with a low emission level. Investigation into zones suggests that NOx is mostly formed in core zones while HC and CO mostly originate in the crevice and the quench layer.

  8. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over

  9. Adjustment of Measurements with Multiplicative Errors: Error Analysis, Estimates of the Variance of Unit Weight, and Effect on Volume Estimation from LiDAR-Type Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern observation technology has verified that measurement errors can be proportional to the true values of measurements such as GPS, VLBI baselines and LiDAR. Observational models of this type are called multiplicative error models. This paper is to extend the work of Xu and Shimada published in 2000 on multiplicative error models to analytical error analysis of quantities of practical interest and estimates of the variance of unit weight. We analytically derive the variance-covariance matrices of the three least squares (LS adjustments, the adjusted measurements and the corrections of measurements in multiplicative error models. For quality evaluation, we construct five estimators for the variance of unit weight in association of the three LS adjustment methods. Although LiDAR measurements are contaminated with multiplicative random errors, LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEM have been constructed as if they were of additive random errors. We will simulate a model landslide, which is assumed to be surveyed with LiDAR, and investigate the effect of LiDAR-type multiplicative error measurements on DEM construction and its effect on the estimate of landslide mass volume from the constructed DEM.

  10. Comparison of Two Foreign Body Retrieval Devices with Adjustable Loops in a Swine Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konya, Andras

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to compare two similar foreign body retrieval devices, the Texan TM (TX) and the Texan LONGhorn TM (TX-LG), in a swine model. Both devices feature a ≤30-mm adjustable loop. Capture times and total procedure times for retrieving foreign bodies from the infrarenal aorta, inferior vena cava, and stomach were compared. All attempts with both devices (TX, n = 15; TX-LG, n = 14) were successful. Foreign bodies in the vasculature were captured quickly using both devices (mean ± SD, 88 ± 106 sec for TX vs 67 ± 42 sec for TX-LG) with no significant difference between them. The TX-LG, however, allowed significantly better capture times than the TX in the stomach (p = 0.022), Overall, capture times for the TX-LG were significantly better than for the TX (p = 0.029). There was no significant difference between the total procedure times in any anatomic region. TX-LG performed significantly better than the TX in the stomach and therefore overall. The better torque control and maneuverability of TX-LG resulted in better performance in large anatomic spaces

  11. Modeling and Dynamic Simulation of the Adjust and Control System Mechanism for Reactor CAREM-25

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larreteguy, A.E; Mazufri, C.M

    2000-01-01

    The adjust and control system mechanism, MSAC, is an advanced, and in some senses unique, hydromechanical device.The efforts in modeling this mechanism are aimed to: Get a deep understanding of the physical phenomena involved,Identify the set of parameters relevant to the dynamics of the system,Allow the numerical simulation of the system,Predict the behavior of the mechanism in conditions other than that obtainable within the range of operation of the experimental setup (CEM), and Help in defining the design of the CAPEM (loop for testing the mechanism under high pressure/high temperature conditions).Thanks to the close interaction between the mechanics, the experimenters, and the modelists that compose the MSAC task force, it has been possible to suggest improvements, not only in the design of the mechanism, but also in the design and the operation of the pulse generator (GDP) and the rest of the CEM.This effort has led to a design mature enough so as to be tested in a high-pressure loop

  12. Homoclinic connections and subcritical Neimark bifurcation in a duopoly model with adaptively adjusted productions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agliari, Anna

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we study some global bifurcations arising in the Puu's oligopoly model when we assume that the producers do not adjust to the best reply but use an adaptive process to obtain at each step the new production. Such bifurcations cause the appearance of a pair of closed invariant curves, one attracting and one repelling, this latter being involved in the subcritical Neimark bifurcation of the Cournot equilibrium point. The aim of the paper is to highlight the relationship between the global bifurcations causing the appearance/disappearance of two invariant closed curves and the homoclinic connections of some saddle cycle, already conjectured in [Agliari A, Gardini L, Puu T. Some global bifurcations related to the appearance of closed invariant curves. Comput Math Simul 2005;68:201-19]. We refine the results obtained in such a paper, showing that the appearance/disappearance of closed invariant curves is not necessarily related to the existence of an attracting cycle. The characterization of the periodicity tongues (i.e. a region of the parameter space in which an attracting cycle exists) associated with a subcritical Neimark bifurcation is also discussed

  13. Adjustments of the TaD electron density reconstruction model with GNSS-TEC parameters for operational application purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belehaki Anna

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Validation results on the latest version of TaD model (TaDv2 show realistic reconstruction of the electron density profiles (EDPs with an average error of 3 TECU, similar to the error obtained from GNSS-TEC calculated paremeters. The work presented here has the aim to further improve the accuracy of the TaD topside reconstruction, adjusting the TEC parameter calculated from TaD model with the TEC parameter calculated by GNSS transmitting RINEX files provided by receivers co-located with the Digisondes. The performance of the new version is tested during a storm period demonstrating further improvements in respect to the previous version. Statistical comparison of modeled and observed TEC confirms the validity of the proposed adjustment. A significant benefit of the proposed upgrade is that it facilitates the real-time implementation of TaD. The model needs a reliable measure of the scale height at the peak height, which is supposed to be provided by Digisondes. Oftenly, the automatic scaling software fails to correctly calculate the scale height at the peak, Hm, due to interferences in the receiving signal. Consequently the model estimated topside scale height is wrongly calculated leading to unrealistic results for the modeled EDP. The proposed TEC adjustment forces the model to correctly reproduce the topside scale height, despite the inaccurate values of Hm. This adjustment is very important for the application of TaD in an operational environment.

  14. Health economic modeling of the potential cost saving effects of Neurally Adjusted Ventilator Assist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjelmgren, Jonas; Bruce Wirta, Sara; Huetson, Pernilla; Myrén, Karl-Johan; Göthberg, Sylvia

    2016-02-01

    Asynchrony between patient and ventilator breaths is associated with increased duration of mechanical ventilation (MV). Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) controls MV through an esophageal reading of diaphragm electrical activity via a nasogastric tube mounted with electrode rings. NAVA has been shown to decrease asynchrony in comparison to pressure support ventilation (PSV). The objective of this study was to conduct a health economic evaluation of NAVA compared with PSV. We developed a model based on an indirect link between improved synchrony with NAVA versus PSV and fewer days spent on MV in synchronous patients. Unit costs for MV were obtained from the Swedish intensive care unit register, and used in the model along with NAVA-specific costs. The importance of each parameter (proportion of asynchronous patients, costs, and average MV duration) for the overall results was evaluated through sensitivity analyses. Base case results showed that 21% of patients ventilated with NAVA were asynchronous versus 52% of patients receiving PSV. This equals an absolute difference of 31% and an average of 1.7 days less on MV and a total cost saving of US$7886 (including NAVA catheter costs). A breakeven analysis suggested that NAVA was cost effective compared with PSV given an absolute difference in the proportion of asynchronous patients greater than 2.5% (49.5% versus 52% asynchronous patients with NAVA and PSV, respectively). The base case results were stable to changes in parameters, such as difference in asynchrony, duration of ventilation and daily intensive care unit costs. This study showed economically favorable results for NAVA versus PSV. Our results show that only a minor decrease in the proportion of asynchronous patients with NAVA is needed for investments to pay off and generate savings. Future studies need to confirm this result by directly relating improved synchrony to the number of days on MV. © The Author(s), 2015.

  15. [Adjustment of the Andersen's model to the Mexican context: access to prenatal care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamez-González, Silvia; Valle-Arcos, Rosa Irene; Eibenschutz-Hartman, Catalina; Méndez-Ramírez, Ignacio

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this work was to propose an adjustment to the Model of Andersen who answers better to the social inequality of the population in the Mexico City and allows to evaluate the effect of socioeconomic factors in the access to the prenatal care of a sample stratified according to degree of marginalization. The data come from a study of 663 women, randomly selected from a framework sample of 21,421 homes in Mexico City. This work collects information about factors that affect utilization of health services, as well as predisposing factors (age and socioeconomic level), as enabling factors (education, social support, entitlement, pay out of pocket and opinion of health services), and need factors. The sample was ranked according to exclusion variables into three stratums. The data were analyzed through the technique of path analysis. The results indicate that socioeconomic level takes part like predisposed variable for utilization of prenatal care services into three stratums. Otherwise, education and social support were the most important enabling variables for utilization of prenatal care services in the same three groups. In regard to low stratum, the most important enabling variables were education and entitlement. For high stratum the principal enabling variables were pay out of pocket and social support. The medium stratum shows atypical behavior which it was difficult to explain and understand. There was not mediating role with need variable in three models. This indicated absence of equality in all stratums. However, the most correlations in high stratum perhaps indicate less inequitable conditions regarding other stratums.

  16. Opportunities for Improving Army Modeling and Simulation Development: Making Fundamental Adjustments and Borrowing Commercial Business Practices

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John

    2000-01-01

    ...; requirements which span the conflict spectrum. The Army's current staff training simulation development process could better support all possible scenarios by making some fundamental adjustments and borrowing commercial business practices...

  17. Using Multilevel Modeling to Assess Case-Mix Adjusters in Consumer Experience Surveys in Health Care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C.; Stubbe, Janine H.; Hendriks, Michelle; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Delnoij, Diana M. J.; Groenewegen, Peter P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Ratings on the quality of healthcare from the consumer's perspective need to be adjusted for consumer characteristics to ensure fair and accurate comparisons between healthcare providers or health plans. Although multilevel analysis is already considered an appropriate method for

  18. Effect of the spray volume adjustment model on the efficiency of fungicides and residues in processing tomato

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratajkiewicz, H.; Kierzek, R.; Raczkowski, M.; Hołodyńska-Kulas, A.; Łacka, A.; Wójtowicz, A.; Wachowiak, M.

    2016-11-01

    This study compared the effects of a proportionate spray volume (PSV) adjustment model and a fixed model (300 L/ha) on the infestation of processing tomato with potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary) (PLB) and azoxystrobin and chlorothalonil residues in fruits in three consecutive seasons. The fungicides were applied in alternating system with or without two spreader adjuvants. The proportionate spray volume adjustment model was based on the number of leaves on plants and spray volume index. The modified Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe (QuEChERS) method was optimized and validated for extraction of azoxystrobin and chlorothalonil residue. Gas chromatography with a nitrogen and phosphorus detector and an electron capture detector were used for the analysis of fungicides. The results showed that higher fungicidal residues were connected with lower infestation of tomato with PLB. PSV adjustment model resulted in lower infestation of tomato than the fixed model (300 L/ha) when fungicides were applied at half the dose without adjuvants. Higher expected spray interception into the tomato canopy with the PSV system was recognized as the reasons of better control of PLB. The spreader adjuvants did not have positive effect on the biological efficacy of spray volume application systems. The results suggest that PSV adjustment model can be used to determine the spray volume for fungicide application for processing tomato crop. (Author)

  19. Effect of the spray volume adjustment model on the efficiency of fungicides and residues in processing tomato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henryk Ratajkiewicz

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of a proportionate spray volume (PSV adjustment model and a fixed model (300 L/ha on the infestation of processing tomato with potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont. de Bary (PLB and azoxystrobin and chlorothalonil residues in fruits in three consecutive seasons. The fungicides were applied in alternating system with or without two spreader adjuvants. The proportionate spray volume adjustment model was based on the number of leaves on plants and spray volume index. The modified Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe (QuEChERS method was optimized and validated for extraction of azoxystrobin and chlorothalonil residue. Gas chromatography with a nitrogen and phosphorus detector and an electron capture detector were used for the analysis of fungicides. The results showed that higher fungicidal residues were connected with lower infestation of tomato with PLB. PSV adjustment model resulted in lower infestation of tomato than the fixed model (300 L/ha when fungicides were applied at half the dose without adjuvants. Higher expected spray interception into the tomato canopy with the PSV system was recognized as the reasons of better control of PLB. The spreader adjuvants did not have positive effect on the biological efficacy of spray volume application systems. The results suggest that PSV adjustment model can be used to determine the spray volume for fungicide application for processing tomato crop.

  20. In search of laterally heterogeneous viscosity models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment with the ICE-6G_C global ice history model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tanghua; Wu, Patrick; Steffen, Holger; Wang, Hansheng

    2018-05-01

    Most models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) assume that the Earth is laterally homogeneous. However, seismic and geological observations clearly show that the Earth's mantle is laterally heterogeneous. Previous studies of GIA with lateral heterogeneity mostly focused on its effect or sensitivity on GIA predictions, and it is not clear to what extent can lateral heterogeneity solve the misfits between GIA predictions and observations. Our aim is to search for the best 3D viscosity models that can simultaneously fit the global relative sea-level (RSL) data, the peak uplift rates (u-dot from GNSS) and peak gravity-rate-of-change (g-dot from the GRACE satellite mission) in Laurentia and Fennoscandia. However, the search is dependent on the ice and viscosity model inputs - the latter depends on the background viscosity and the seismic tomography models used. In this paper, the ICE-6G_C ice model, with Bunge & Grand's seismic tomography model and background viscosity models close to VM5 will be assumed. A Coupled Laplace-Finite Element Method is used to compute gravitationally self-consistent sea level change with time dependent coastlines and rotational feedback in addition to changes in deformation, gravity and the state of stress. Several laterally heterogeneous models are found to fit the global sea level data better than laterally homogeneous models. Two of these laterally heterogeneous models also fit the ICE-6G_C peak g-dot and u-dot rates observed in Laurentia simultaneously. However, even with the introduction of lateral heterogeneity, no model that is able to fit the present-day g-dot and uplift rate data in Fennoscandia has been found. Therefore, either the ice history of ICE-6G_C in Fennoscandia and Barent Sea needs some modifications, or the sub-lithospheric property/non-thermal effect underneath northern Europe must be different from that underneath Laurentia.

  1. The anchor-based minimal important change, based on receiver operating characteristic analysis or predictive modeling, may need to be adjusted for the proportion of improved patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terluin, Berend; Eekhout, Iris; Terwee, Caroline B

    2017-03-01

    Patients have their individual minimal important changes (iMICs) as their personal benchmarks to determine whether a perceived health-related quality of life (HRQOL) change constitutes a (minimally) important change for them. We denote the mean iMIC in a group of patients as the "genuine MIC" (gMIC). The aims of this paper are (1) to examine the relationship between the gMIC and the anchor-based minimal important change (MIC), determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis or by predictive modeling; (2) to examine the impact of the proportion of improved patients on these MICs; and (3) to explore the possibility to adjust the MIC for the influence of the proportion of improved patients. Multiple simulations of patient samples involved in anchor-based MIC studies with different characteristics of HRQOL (change) scores and distributions of iMICs. In addition, a real data set is analyzed for illustration. The receiver operating characteristic-based and predictive modeling MICs equal the gMIC when the proportion of improved patients equals 0.5. The MIC is estimated higher than the gMIC when the proportion improved is greater than 0.5, and the MIC is estimated lower than the gMIC when the proportion improved is less than 0.5. Using an equation including the predictive modeling MIC, the log-odds of improvement, the standard deviation of the HRQOL change score, and the correlation between the HRQOL change score and the anchor results in an adjusted MIC reflecting the gMIC irrespective of the proportion of improved patients. Adjusting the predictive modeling MIC for the proportion of improved patients assures that the adjusted MIC reflects the gMIC. We assumed normal distributions and global perceived change scores that were independent on the follow-up score. Additionally, floor and ceiling effects were not taken into account. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

    2003-10-01

    The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

  3. Modelling time course gene expression data with finite mixtures of linear additive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grün, Bettina; Scharl, Theresa; Leisch, Friedrich

    2012-01-15

    A model class of finite mixtures of linear additive models is presented. The component-specific parameters in the regression models are estimated using regularized likelihood methods. The advantages of the regularization are that (i) the pre-specified maximum degrees of freedom for the splines is less crucial than for unregularized estimation and that (ii) for each component individually a suitable degree of freedom is selected in an automatic way. The performance is evaluated in a simulation study with artificial data as well as on a yeast cell cycle dataset of gene expression levels over time. The latest release version of the R package flexmix is available from CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/).

  4. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  5. DaMoScope and its internet graphics for the visual control of adjusting mathematical models describing experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belousov, V. I.; Ezhela, V. V.; Kuyanov, Yu. V.; Tkachenko, N. P.

    2015-01-01

    The experience of using the dynamic atlas of the experimental data and mathematical models of their description in the problems of adjusting parametric models of observable values depending on kinematic variables is presented. The functional possibilities of an image of a large number of experimental data and the models describing them are shown by examples of data and models of observable values determined by the amplitudes of elastic scattering of hadrons. The Internet implementation of an interactive tool DaMoScope and its interface with the experimental data and codes of adjusted parametric models with the parameters of the best description of data are schematically shown. The DaMoScope codes are freely available

  6. DaMoScope and its internet graphics for the visual control of adjusting mathematical models describing experimental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belousov, V. I.; Ezhela, V. V.; Kuyanov, Yu. V.; Tkachenko, N. P.

    2015-12-01

    The experience of using the dynamic atlas of the experimental data and mathematical models of their description in the problems of adjusting parametric models of observable values depending on kinematic variables is presented. The functional possibilities of an image of a large number of experimental data and the models describing them are shown by examples of data and models of observable values determined by the amplitudes of elastic scattering of hadrons. The Internet implementation of an interactive tool DaMoScope and its interface with the experimental data and codes of adjusted parametric models with the parameters of the best description of data are schematically shown. The DaMoScope codes are freely available.

  7. DaMoScope and its internet graphics for the visual control of adjusting mathematical models describing experimental data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belousov, V. I.; Ezhela, V. V.; Kuyanov, Yu. V., E-mail: Yu.Kuyanov@gmail.com; Tkachenko, N. P. [Institute for High Energy Physics, National Research Center Kurchatov Institute, COMPAS Group (Russian Federation)

    2015-12-15

    The experience of using the dynamic atlas of the experimental data and mathematical models of their description in the problems of adjusting parametric models of observable values depending on kinematic variables is presented. The functional possibilities of an image of a large number of experimental data and the models describing them are shown by examples of data and models of observable values determined by the amplitudes of elastic scattering of hadrons. The Internet implementation of an interactive tool DaMoScope and its interface with the experimental data and codes of adjusted parametric models with the parameters of the best description of data are schematically shown. The DaMoScope codes are freely available.

  8. Data Assimilation and Adjusted Spherical Harmonic Model of VTEC Map over Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinngam, Somjai; Maruyama, Takashi; Tsugawa, Takuya; Ishii, Mamoru; Supnithi, Pornchai; Chiablaem, Athiwat

    2016-07-01

    The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and high frequency (HF) communication are vulnerable to the ionospheric irregularities, especially when the signal travels through the low-latitude region and around the magnetic equator known as equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region. In order to study the ionospheric effects to the communications performance in this region, the regional map of the observed total electron content (TEC) can show the characteristic and irregularities of the ionosphere. In this work, we develop the two-dimensional (2D) map of vertical TEC (VTEC) over Thailand using the adjusted spherical harmonic model (ASHM) and the data assimilation technique. We calculate the VTEC from the receiver independent exchange (RINEX) files recorded by the dual-frequency global positioning system (GPS) receivers on July 8th, 2012 (quiet day) at 12 stations around Thailand: 0° to 25°E and 95°N to 110°N. These stations are managed by Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (DPT), Thailand, and the South East Asia Low-latitude ionospheric Network (SEALION) project operated by National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), Japan, and King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL). We compute the median observed VTEC (OBS-VTEC) in the grids with the spatial resolution of 2.5°x5° in latitude and longitude and time resolution of 2 hours. We assimilate the OBS-VTEC with the estimated VTEC from the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-VTEC) as well as the ionosphere map exchange (IONEX) files provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS-VTEC). The results show that the estimation of the 15-degree ASHM can be improved when both of IRI-VTEC and IGS-VTEC are weighted by the latitude-dependent factors before assimilating with the OBS-VTEC. However, the IRI-VTEC assimilation can improve the ASHM estimation more than the IGS-VTEC assimilation. Acknowledgment: This work is partially funded by the

  9. A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossieris, Panagiotis; Makropoulos, Christos; Onof, Christian; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2018-01-01

    Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 min time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-min time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-min rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.

  10. Method for mapping population-based case-control studies: an application using generalized additive models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aschengrau Ann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence and risk can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Disease registry data are often mapped by town or county of diagnosis and contain limited data on covariates. These maps often possess poor spatial resolution, the potential for spatial confounding, and the inability to consider latency. Population-based case-control studies can provide detailed information on residential history and covariates. Results Generalized additive models (GAMs provide a useful framework for mapping point-based epidemiologic data. Smoothing on location while controlling for covariates produces adjusted maps. We generate maps of odds ratios using the entire study area as a reference. We smooth using a locally weighted regression smoother (loess, a method that combines the advantages of nearest neighbor and kernel methods. We choose an optimal degree of smoothing by minimizing Akaike's Information Criterion. We use a deviance-based test to assess the overall importance of location in the model and pointwise permutation tests to locate regions of significantly increased or decreased risk. The method is illustrated with synthetic data and data from a population-based case-control study, using S-Plus and ArcView software. Conclusion Our goal is to develop practical methods for mapping population-based case-control and cohort studies. The method described here performs well for our synthetic data, reproducing important features of the data and adequately controlling the covariate. When applied to the population-based case-control data set, the method suggests spatial confounding and identifies statistically significant areas of increased and decreased odds ratios.

  11. 78 FR 12271 - Wireline Competition Bureau Seeks Additional Comment In Connect America Cost Model Virtual Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-22

    ... Competition Bureau seeks public input on additional questions relating to modeling voice capability and Annual... the model. 4. The Bureau now seeks public input on additional questions relating to modeling voice... with fewer than 25 employees, pursuant to the Small Business Paperwork Relief Act of 2002, Public Law...

  12. Adolescent Sibling Relationship Quality and Adjustment: Sibling Trustworthiness and Modeling, as Factors Directly and Indirectly Influencing These Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Wendy C.; Yu, Jeong Jin; Kuehn, Emily D.

    2011-01-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine the direct and moderating effects of trustworthiness and modeling on adolescent siblings' adjustment. Data were collected from 438 families including a mother, a younger sibling in fifth, sixth, or seventh grade (M = 11.6 years), and an older sibling (M = 14.3 years). Respondents completed Web-based…

  13. Convexity Adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    M. Gaspar, Raquel; Murgoci, Agatha

    2010-01-01

    A convexity adjustment (or convexity correction) in fixed income markets arises when one uses prices of standard (plain vanilla) products plus an adjustment to price nonstandard products. We explain the basic and appealing idea behind the use of convexity adjustments and focus on the situations...

  14. Multiple High-Fidelity Modeling Tools for Metal Additive Manufacturing Process Development, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Despite the rapid commercialization of additive manufacturing technology such as selective laser melting, SLM, there are gaps in process modeling and material...

  15. Multiple High-Fidelity Modeling Tools for Metal Additive Manufacturing Process Development, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Despite the rapid commercialization of additive manufacturing technology such as selective laser melting, SLM, there are gaps in process modeling and material...

  16. A Key Challenge in Global HRM: Adding New Insights to Existing Expatriate Spouse Adjustment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Ritu; Banerjee, Pratyush; Gaur, Jighyasu

    2012-01-01

    This study is an attempt to strengthen the existing knowledge about factors affecting the adjustment process of the trailing expatriate spouse and the subsequent impact of any maladjustment or expatriate failure. We conducted a qualitative enquiry using grounded theory methodology with 26 Indian spouses who had to deal with their partner's…

  17. Using multilevel modelling to assess case-mix adjusters in consumers experience surveys in health care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, O.C.; Stubbe, J.H.; Hendriks, M.; Arah, O.A.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Delnoij, D.M.J.; Groenewegen, P.P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Ratings on the quality of healthcare from the consumer’s perspective need to be adjusted for consumer characteristics to ensure fair and accurate comparisons between healthcare providers or health plans. Although multilevel analysis is already considered an appropriate method for

  18. Using multilevel modeling to assess case-mix adjusters in consumer experience surveys in health care.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, O.C.; Stubbe, J.H.; Hendriks, M.; Arah, O.A.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Delnoij, D.M.J.; Groenewegen, P.P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Ratings on the quality of healthcare from the consumer’s perspective need to be adjusted for consumer characteristics to ensure fair and accurate comparisons between healthcare providers or health plans. Although multilevel analysis is already considered an appropriate method for

  19. A typology of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices in high-risk families: examining spillover and compensatory models and implications for child adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturge-Apple, Melissa L; Davies, Patrick T; Cicchetti, Dante; Fittoria, Michael G

    2014-11-01

    The present study incorporates a person-based approach to identify spillover and compartmentalization patterns of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices in an ethnically diverse sample of 192 2-year-old children and their mothers who had experienced higher levels of socioeconomic risk. In addition, we tested whether sociocontextual variables were differentially predictive of theses profiles and examined how interpartner-parenting profiles were associated with children's physiological and psychological adjustment over time. As expected, latent class analyses extracted three primary profiles of functioning: adequate functioning, spillover, and compartmentalizing families. Furthermore, interpartner-parenting profiles were differentially associated with both sociocontextual predictors and children's adjustment trajectories. The findings highlight the developmental utility of incorporating person-based approaches to models of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices.

  20. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2014-01-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

  1. Additive Manufacturing Modeling and Simulation A Literature Review for Electron Beam Free Form Fabrication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seufzer, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Additive manufacturing is coming into industrial use and has several desirable attributes. Control of the deposition remains a complex challenge, and so this literature review was initiated to capture current modeling efforts in the field of additive manufacturing. This paper summarizes about 10 years of modeling and simulation related to both welding and additive manufacturing. The goals were to learn who is doing what in modeling and simulation, to summarize various approaches taken to create models, and to identify research gaps. Later sections in the report summarize implications for closed-loop-control of the process, implications for local research efforts, and implications for local modeling efforts.

  2. Personal resilience, cognitive appraisals, and coping: an integrative model of adjustment to abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, B; Richards, C; Cooper, M L; Cozzarelli, C; Zubek, J

    1998-03-01

    We hypothesized that the effects of personality (self-esteem, control, and optimism) on postabortion adaptation (distress, well-being, and decision satisfaction) would be fully mediated by preabortion cognitive appraisals (stress appraisals and self-efficacy appraisals) and postabortion coping. We further proposed that the effects of preabortion appraisals on adaptation would be fully mediated by postabortion coping. Results of a longitudinal study of 527 women who had first-trimester abortions supported our hypotheses. Women with more resilient personalities appraised their abortion as less stressful and had higher self-efficacy for coping with the abortion. More positive appraisals predicted greater acceptance/reframing coping and lesser avoidance/denial, venting, support seeking, and religious coping. Acceptance-reframing predicted better adjustment on all measures, whereas avoidance-denial and venting related to poorer adjustment on all measures. Greater support seeking was associated with reduced distress, and greater religious coping was associated with less decision satisfaction.

  3. A model for additive transport in metal halide lamps containing mercury and dysprosium tri-iodide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beks, M.L.; Haverlag, M.; Mullen, van der J.J.A.M.

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of additives in a metal halide lamp is examined through numerical modelling. A model for a lamp containing sodium iodide additives has been modified to study a discharge containing dysprosium tri-iodide salts. To study the complex chemistry the method of Gibbs minimization is used

  4. Different Effect of the Additional Electron-Withdrawing Cyano Group in Different Conjugation Bridge: The Adjusted Molecular Energy Levels and Largely Improved Photovoltaic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huiyang; Fang, Manman; Hou, Yingqin; Tang, Runli; Yang, Yizhou; Zhong, Cheng; Li, Qianqian; Li, Zhen

    2016-05-18

    Four organic sensitizers (LI-68-LI-71) bearing various conjugated bridges were designed and synthesized, in which the only difference between LI-68 and LI-69 (or LI-70 and LI-71) was the absence/presence of the CN group as the auxiliary electron acceptor. Interestingly, compared to the reference dye of LI-68, LI-69 bearing the additional CN group exhibited the bad performance with the decreased Jsc and Voc values. However, once one thiophene moiety near the anchor group was replaced by pyrrole with the electron-rich property, the resultant LI-71 exhibited a photoelectric conversion efficiency increase by about 3 folds from 2.75% (LI-69) to 7.95% (LI-71), displaying the synergistic effect of the two moieties (CN and pyrrole). Computational analysis disclosed that pyrrole as the auxiliary electron donor (D') in the conjugated bridge can compensate for the lower negative charge in the electron acceptor, which was caused by the CN group as the electron trap, leading to the more efficient electron injection and better photovoltaic performance.

  5. A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

    2016-04-01

    Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

  6. An introduction to modeling longitudinal data with generalized additive models: applications to single-case designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kristynn J; Shadish, William R; Steiner, Peter M

    2015-03-01

    Single-case designs (SCDs) are short time series that assess intervention effects by measuring units repeatedly over time in both the presence and absence of treatment. This article introduces a statistical technique for analyzing SCD data that has not been much used in psychological and educational research: generalized additive models (GAMs). In parametric regression, the researcher must choose a functional form to impose on the data, for example, that trend over time is linear. GAMs reverse this process by letting the data inform the choice of functional form. In this article we review the problem that trend poses in SCDs, discuss how current SCD analytic methods approach trend, describe GAMs as a possible solution, suggest a GAM model testing procedure for examining the presence of trend in SCDs, present a small simulation to show the statistical properties of GAMs, and illustrate the procedure on 3 examples of different lengths. Results suggest that GAMs may be very useful both as a form of sensitivity analysis for checking the plausibility of assumptions about trend and as a primary data analysis strategy for testing treatment effects. We conclude with a discussion of some problems with GAMs and some future directions for research on the application of GAMs to SCDs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Mistral project: identification and parameter adjustment. Theoretical part; Projet Mistral: identification et recalage des modeles. Etude theorique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faille, D.; Codrons, B.; Gevers, M.

    1996-03-01

    This document belongs to the methodological part of the project MISTRAL, which builds a library of power plant models. The model equations are generally obtained from the first principles. The parameters are actually not always easily calculable (at least accurately) from the dimension data. We are therefore investigating the possibility of automatically adjusting the value of those parameters from experimental data. To do that, we must master the optimization algorithms and the techniques that are analyzing the model structure, like the identifiability theory. (authors). 7 refs., 1 fig., 1 append.

  8. Resolution of a Rank-Deficient Adjustment Model Via an Isomorphic Geometrical Setup with Tensor Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    holds an economical advantage. We now formulate 1. from (65) in conjunction with (57): IH]T T I TI (4 L [I R)T(I + RR ) (L*4) where the positive...sizes of the matrices to be inverted, an economical edge of the analytical formulation hecomes apparent as well. Chapter 3 contains one such matrix of...the relat ions Sthat can tie iibta i ned via the tensor vers ion of adjustment quant it ies. Alt Iihut t . ho’ ) mpu it iona I merits of the CholeskI

  9. Modeling and Predicting the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Role of Nonlinear Adjustments to Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    Jesús Crespo Cuaresma; Anna Orthofer

    2010-01-01

    Reliable medium-term forecasts are essential for forward-looking monetary policy decisionmaking. Traditionally, predictions of the exchange rate tend to be linked to the equilibrium concept implied by the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory. In particular, the traditional benchmark for exchange rate models is based on a linear adjustment of the exchange rate to the level implied by PPP. In the presence of aggregation effects, transaction costs or uncertainty, however, economic theory predict...

  10. The adjustment of global and partial dry biomass models for Pinus pinaster in the North-East of Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Domingos; Almeida, L.R.; Castro, João Paulo; Aranha, José

    2005-01-01

    Ecosystems net primary production quantification can be done by means of allometric equations. Carbon sequestration studies also involve the quantification of growth dry biomass, knowing the carbon percentage of dry biomass. Fieldwork complexity to collect these kind of data are often limitative for obtaining these mathematical models. Allometric equations were adjusted to estimate dry biomass of individual Pinus pinaster trees, using data from 30 trees. Statisticals form the final equatio...

  11. An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiner Jonathan P

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. Methods A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234, while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562. Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. Results The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster. When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Conclusions Given the

  12. An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-01-18

    Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI) programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234), while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562). Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group) model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster). When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Given the widespread availability of claims data and the superior explanatory

  13. Materials Testing and Cost Modeling for Composite Parts Through Additive Manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    FDM include plastic jet printing (PJP), fused filament modeling ( FFM ), and fused filament fabrication (FFF). FFF was coined by the RepRap project to...additive manufacturing processes? • Fused deposition modeling (FDM) trademarked by Stratasys • Fused filament modeling ( FFM ) and fused filament

  14. Spatial downscaling of soil prediction models based on weighted generalized additive models in smallholder farm settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P; Nair, Vimala D

    2017-09-11

    Digital soil mapping (DSM) is gaining momentum as a technique to help smallholder farmers secure soil security and food security in developing regions. However, communications of the digital soil mapping information between diverse audiences become problematic due to the inconsistent scale of DSM information. Spatial downscaling can make use of accessible soil information at relatively coarse spatial resolution to provide valuable soil information at relatively fine spatial resolution. The objective of this research was to disaggregate the coarse spatial resolution soil exchangeable potassium (K ex ) and soil total nitrogen (TN) base map into fine spatial resolution soil downscaled map using weighted generalized additive models (GAMs) in two smallholder villages in South India. By incorporating fine spatial resolution spectral indices in the downscaling process, the soil downscaled maps not only conserve the spatial information of coarse spatial resolution soil maps but also depict the spatial details of soil properties at fine spatial resolution. The results of this study demonstrated difference between the fine spatial resolution downscaled maps and fine spatial resolution base maps is smaller than the difference between coarse spatial resolution base maps and fine spatial resolution base maps. The appropriate and economical strategy to promote the DSM technique in smallholder farms is to develop the relatively coarse spatial resolution soil prediction maps or utilize available coarse spatial resolution soil maps at the regional scale and to disaggregate these maps to the fine spatial resolution downscaled soil maps at farm scale.

  15. Differentiation of Self and Dyadic Adjustment in Couple Relationships: A Dyadic Analysis Using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampis, Jessica; Cataudella, Stefania; Agus, Mirian; Busonera, Alessandra; Skowron, Elizabeth A

    2018-06-10

    Bowen's multigenerational theory provides an account of how the internalization of experiences within the family of origin promotes development of the ability to maintain a distinct self whilst also making intimate connections with others. Differentiated people can maintain their I-position in intimate relationships. They can remain calm in conflictual relationships, resolve relational problems effectively, and reach compromises. Fusion with others, emotional cut-off, and emotional reactivity instead are common reactions to relational stress in undifferentiated people. Emotional reactivity is the tendency to react to stressors with irrational and intense emotional arousal. Fusion with others is an excessive emotional involvement in significant relationships, whilst emotional cut-off is the tendency to manage relationship anxiety through physical and emotional distance. This study is based on Bowen's theory, starting from the assumption that dyadic adjustment can be affected both by a member's differentiation of self (actor effect) and by his or her partner's differentiation of self (partner effect). We used the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model to study the relationship between differentiation of self and dyadic adjustment in a convenience sample of 137 heterosexual Italian couples (nonindependent, dyadic data). The couples completed the Differentiation of Self Inventory and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Men's dyadic adjustment depended only on their personal I-position, whereas women's dyadic adjustment was affected by their personal I-position and emotional cut-off as well as by their partner's I-position and emotional cut-off. The empirical and clinical implications of the results are discussed. © 2018 Family Process Institute.

  16. Considering the Epistemic Uncertainties of the Variogram Model in Locating Additional Exploratory Drillholes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Soltani

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available To enhance the certainty of the grade block model, it is necessary to increase the number of exploratory drillholes and collect more data from the deposit. The inputs of the process of locating these additional drillholes include the variogram model parameters, locations of the samples taken from the initial drillholes, and the geological block model. The uncertainties of these inputs will lead to uncertainties in the optimal locations of additional drillholes. Meanwhile, the locations of the initial data are crisp, but the variogram model parameters and the geological model have uncertainties due to the limitation of the number of initial data. In this paper, effort has been made to consider the effects of variogram uncertainties on the optimal location of additional drillholes using the fuzzy kriging and solve the locating problem with the genetic algorithm (GA optimization method.A bauxite deposit case study has shown the efficiency of the proposed model.

  17. Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

    2018-03-01

    In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

  18. Real time adjustment of slow changing flow components in distributed urban runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    In many urban runoff systems infiltrating water contributes with a substantial part of the total inflow and therefore most urban runoff modelling packages include hydrological models for simulating the infiltrating inflow. This paper presents a method for deterministic updating of the hydrological...... improvements for regular simulations as well as up to 10 hour forecasts. The updating method reduces the impact of non-representative precipitation estimates as well as model structural errors and leads to better overall modelling results....

  19. Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

    2017-12-06

    For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A non-Gaussian generalisation of the Airline model for robust Seasonal Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aston, J.; Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    In their seminal book Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Box and Jenkins (1976) introduce the Airline model, which is still routinely used for the modelling of economic seasonal time series. The Airline model is for a differenced time series (in levels and seasons) and constitutes a

  1. THE INSTANTANEOUS SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT ASSUMPTION AND STABILITY OF ECONOMIC-MODELS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    SCHOONBEEK, L

    In order to simplify stability analysis of an economic model one can assume that one of the model variables moves infinitely fast towards equilibrium, given the values of the other slower variables. We present conditions such that stability of the simplified model implies, or is implied by,

  2. Estimation of emission adjustments from the application of four-dimensional data assimilation to photochemical air quality modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza-Dominguez, A.; Russell, A.G.

    2001-01-01

    Four-dimensional data assimilation applied to photochemical air quality modeling is used to suggest adjustments to the emissions inventory of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. In this approach, a three-dimensional air quality model, coupled with direct sensitivity analysis, develops spatially and temporally varying concentration and sensitivity fields that account for chemical and physical processing, and receptor analysis is used to adjust source strengths. Proposed changes to domain-wide NO x , volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and CO emissions from anthropogenic sources and for VOC emissions from biogenic sources were estimated, as well as modifications to sources based on their spatial location (urban vs. rural areas). In general, domain-wide anthropogenic VOC emissions were increased approximately two times their base case level to best match observations, domain-wide anthropogenic NO x and biogenic VOC emissions (BEIS2 estimates) remained close to their base case value and domain-wide CO emissions were decreased. Adjustments for anthropogenic NO x emissions increased their level of uncertainty when adjustments were computed for mobile and area sources (or urban and rural sources) separately, due in part to the poor spatial resolution of the observation field of nitrogen-containing species. Estimated changes to CO emissions also suffer from poor spatial resolution of the measurements. Results suggest that rural anthropogenic VOC emissions appear to be severely underpredicted. The FDDA approach was also used to investigate the speciation profiles of VOC emissions, and results warrant revision of these profiles. In general, the results obtained here are consistent with what are viewed as the current deficiencies in emissions inventories as derived by other top-down techniques, such as tunnel studies and analysis of ambient measurements. (Author)

  3. Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Petrini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567, yearling weight (n=58,124, and scrotal circumference (n=20,371 of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

  4. Opportunities for Improving Army Modeling and Simulation Development: Making Fundamental Adjustments and Borrowing Commercial Business Practices

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John

    2000-01-01

    .... This paper briefly explores project management principles, leadership theory, and commercial business practices, suggesting improvements to the Army's modeling and simulation development process...

  5. Dynamic Modeling of Adjustable-Speed Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, E.; Singh, M.; Gevorgian, V.; Mohanpurkar, M.; Havsapian, R.; Koritarov, V.

    2015-04-06

    Hydropower is the largest producer of renewable energy in the U.S. More than 60% of the total renewable generation comes from hydropower. There is also approximately 22 GW of pumped storage hydropower (PSH). Conventional PSH uses a synchronous generator, and thus the rotational speed is constant at synchronous speed. This work details a hydrodynamic model and generator/power converter dynamic model. The optimization of the hydrodynamic model is executed by the hydro-turbine controller, and the electrical output real/reactive power is controlled by the power converter. All essential controllers to perform grid-interface functions and provide ancillary services are included in the model.

  6. The chaos and control of a food chain model supplying additional food to top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Banshidhar; Poria, Swarup

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a chaotic food chain model supplying additional food to top-predator. • Local and global stability conditions are derived in presence of additional food. • Chaos is controlled only by increasing quantity of additional food. • System enters into periodic region and depicts Hopf bifurcations supplying additional food. • This an application of non-chemical methods for controlling chaos. -- Abstract: The control and management of chaotic population is one of the main objectives for constructing mathematical model in ecology today. In this paper, we apply a technique of controlling chaotic predator–prey population dynamics by supplying additional food to top-predator. We formulate a three species predator–prey model supplying additional food to top-predator. Existence conditions and local stability criteria of equilibrium points are determined analytically. Persistence conditions for the system are derived. Global stability conditions of interior equilibrium point is calculated. Theoretical results are verified through numerical simulations. Phase diagram is presented for various quality and quantity of additional food. One parameter bifurcation analysis is done with respect to quality and quantity of additional food separately keeping one of them fixed. Using MATCONT package, we derive the bifurcation scenarios when both the parameters quality and quantity of additional food vary together. We predict the existence of Hopf point (H), limit point (LP) and branch point (BP) in the model for suitable supply of additional food. We have computed the regions of different dynamical behaviour in the quantity–quality parametric plane. From our study we conclude that chaotic population dynamics of predator prey system can be controlled to obtain regular population dynamics only by supplying additional food to top predator. This study is aimed to introduce a new non-chemical chaos control mechanism in a predator–prey system with the

  7. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  8. Research on Capacity Addition using Market Model with Transmission Congestion under Competitive Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsura, Yasufumi; Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kataoka, Yoshihiko

    In this research, the fundamental premises for deregulation of the electric power industry are reevaluated. The authors develop a simple model to represent wholesale electricity market with highly congested network. The model is developed by simplifying the power system and market in New York ISO based on available data of New York ISO in 2004 with some estimation. Based on the developed model and construction cost data from the past, the economic impact of transmission line addition on market participants and the impact of deregulation on power plant additions under market with transmission congestion are studied. Simulation results show that the market signals may fail to facilitate proper capacity additions and results in the undesirable over-construction and insufficient-construction cycle of capacity addition.

  9. Incorporating additional tree and environmental variables in a lodgepole pine stem profile model

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Byrne

    1993-01-01

    A new variable-form segmented stem profile model is developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees from the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. I improved estimates of stem diameter by predicting two of the model coefficients with linear equations using a measure of tree form, defined as a ratio of dbh and total height. Additional improvements were...

  10. Linear identification and model adjustment of a PEM fuel cell stack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunusch, C; Puleston, P F; More, J J [LEICI, Departamento de Electrotecnia, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, calle 1 esq. 47 s/n, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Consejo de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Husar, A [Institut de Robotica i Informatica Industrial (CSIC-UPC), c/ Llorens i Artigas 4-6, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Mayosky, M A [LEICI, Departamento de Electrotecnia, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, calle 1 esq. 47 s/n, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Comision de Investigaciones Cientificas (CIC), Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-15

    In the context of fuel cell stack control a mayor challenge is modeling the interdependence of various complex subsystem dynamics. In many cases, the states interaction is usually modeled through several look-up tables, decision blocks and piecewise continuous functions. Many internal variables are inaccessible for measurement and cannot be used in control algorithms. To make significant contributions in this area, it is necessary to develop reliable models for control and design purposes. In this paper, a linear model based on experimental identification of a 7-cell stack was developed. The procedure followed to obtain a linear model of the system consisted in performing spectroscopy tests of four different single-input single-output subsystems. The considered inputs for the tests were the stack current and the cathode oxygen flow rate, while the measured outputs were the stack voltage and the cathode total pressure. The resulting model can be used either for model-based control design or for on-line analysis and errors detection. (author)

  11. A joint logistic regression and covariate-adjusted continuous-time Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Maria Laura; Chan, Wenyaw; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Robertson, Claudia Sue

    2017-12-10

    The use of longitudinal measurements to predict a categorical outcome is an increasingly common goal in research studies. Joint models are commonly used to describe two or more models simultaneously by considering the correlated nature of their outcomes and the random error present in the longitudinal measurements. However, there is limited research on joint models with longitudinal predictors and categorical cross-sectional outcomes. Perhaps the most challenging task is how to model the longitudinal predictor process such that it represents the true biological mechanism that dictates the association with the categorical response. We propose a joint logistic regression and Markov chain model to describe a binary cross-sectional response, where the unobserved transition rates of a two-state continuous-time Markov chain are included as covariates. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of our model. In a simulation study, coverage probabilities of about 95%, standard deviations close to standard errors, and low biases for the parameter values show that our estimation method is adequate. We apply the proposed joint model to a dataset of patients with traumatic brain injury to describe and predict a 6-month outcome based on physiological data collected post-injury and admission characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the information provided by physiological changes over time may help improve prediction of long-term functional status of these severely ill subjects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Between and beyond additivity and non-additivity : the statistical modelling of genotype by environment interaction in plant breeding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eeuwijk, van F.A.

    1996-01-01

    In plant breeding it is a common observation to see genotypes react differently to environmental changes. This phenomenon is called genotype by environment interaction. Many statistical approaches for analysing genotype by environment interaction rely heavily on the analysis of variance model.

  13. The combined geodetic network adjusted on the reference ellipsoid – a comparison of three functional models for GNSS observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadaj Roman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The adjustment problem of the so-called combined (hybrid, integrated network created with GNSS vectors and terrestrial observations has been the subject of many theoretical and applied works. The network adjustment in various mathematical spaces was considered: in the Cartesian geocentric system on a reference ellipsoid and on a mapping plane. For practical reasons, it often takes a geodetic coordinate system associated with the reference ellipsoid. In this case, the Cartesian GNSS vectors are converted, for example, into geodesic parameters (azimuth and length on the ellipsoid, but the simple form of converted pseudo-observations are the direct differences of the geodetic coordinates. Unfortunately, such an approach may be essentially distorted by a systematic error resulting from the position error of the GNSS vector, before its projection on the ellipsoid surface. In this paper, an analysis of the impact of this error on the determined measures of geometric ellipsoid elements, including the differences of geodetic coordinates or geodesic parameters is presented. Assuming that the adjustment of a combined network on the ellipsoid shows that the optimal functional approach in relation to the satellite observation, is to create the observational equations directly for the original GNSS Cartesian vector components, writing them directly as a function of the geodetic coordinates (in numerical applications, we use the linearized forms of observational equations with explicitly specified coefficients. While retaining the original character of the Cartesian vector, one avoids any systematic errors that may occur in the conversion of the original GNSS vectors to ellipsoid elements, for example the vector of the geodesic parameters. The problem is theoretically developed and numerically tested. An example of the adjustment of a subnet loaded from the database of reference stations of the ASG-EUPOS system was considered for the preferred functional

  14. Elasto-plastic hardening models adjustment to ferritic, austenitic and austenoferritic Rebar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hortigóna, B.; Gallardo, J.M.; Nieto-García, E.J.; López, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    The elastoplastic behaviour of steel used for structural member fabrication has received attention to facilitate a mechanical-resistant design. New Zealand and South African standards have adopted various theoretical approaches to describe such behaviour in stainless steels. With respect to the building industry, describing the tensile behaviour of steel rebar used to produce reinforced concrete structures is of interest. Differences compared with the homogenous material described in the above mentioned standards and related literatures are discussed in this paper. Specifically, the presence of ribs and the TEMPCORE® technology used to produce carbon steel rebar may alter the elastoplastic model. Carbon steel rebar is shown to fit a Hollomon model giving hardening exponent values on the order of 0.17. Austenitic stainless steel rebar behaviour is better described using a modified Rasmussen model with a free fitted exponent of 6. Duplex stainless steel shows a poor fit to any previous model. [es

  15. Modeling and simulation of M/M/c queuing pharmacy system with adjustable parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashida, A. R.; Fadzli, Mohammad; Ibrahim, Safwati; Goh, Siti Rohana

    2016-02-01

    This paper studies a discrete event simulation (DES) as a computer based modelling that imitates a real system of pharmacy unit. M/M/c queuing theo is used to model and analyse the characteristic of queuing system at the pharmacy unit of Hospital Tuanku Fauziah, Kangar in Perlis, Malaysia. The input of this model is based on statistical data collected for 20 working days in June 2014. Currently, patient waiting time of pharmacy unit is more than 15 minutes. The actual operation of the pharmacy unit is a mixed queuing server with M/M/2 queuing model where the pharmacist is referred as the server parameters. DES approach and ProModel simulation software is used to simulate the queuing model and to propose the improvement for queuing system at this pharmacy system. Waiting time for each server is analysed and found out that Counter 3 and 4 has the highest waiting time which is 16.98 and 16.73 minutes. Three scenarios; M/M/3, M/M/4 and M/M/5 are simulated and waiting time for actual queuing model and experimental queuing model are compared. The simulation results show that by adding the server (pharmacist), it will reduce patient waiting time to a reasonable improvement. Almost 50% average patient waiting time is reduced when one pharmacist is added to the counter. However, it is not necessary to fully utilize all counters because eventhough M/M/4 and M/M/5 produced more reduction in patient waiting time, but it is ineffective since Counter 5 is rarely used.

  16. Model-based Adjustment of Droplet Characteristic for 3D Electronic Printing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Na

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The major challenge in 3D electronic printing is the print resolution and accuracy. In this paper, a typical mode - lumped element modeling method (LEM - is adopted to simulate the droplet jetting characteristic. This modeling method can quickly get the droplet velocity and volume with a high accuracy. Experimental results show that LEM has a simpler structure with the sufficient simulation and prediction accuracy.

  17. One-dimensional model of steady, compressible channel flow with mass, momentum, and energy addition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, S.C.

    1976-09-01

    A one-dimensional model of steady, compressible channel flow with mass, momentum and energy addition is discussed. An exact solution to the governing equations was found and from it a similarity parameter relating dimensionless mass, momentum and energy addition identified. This similarity parameter is used to make two flows having different dimensionless mass, momentum and energy additions equivalent. Application of the similarity parameter to the LASL Intense Neutron Source experiment and the Sandia simulation of that experiment results in an expression relating the dimensionless mass addition of combustible gas required in the Sandia experiment to dimensionless energy addition in the LASL experiment. Results of the analysis indicate that the Sandia experiment can realistically simulate the energy addition in the LASL Intense Neutron Source experiment

  18. Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pya

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height (dbh can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter (h-d models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods: We develop unconstrained generalized additive models (GAM and shape constrained generalized additive models (SCAM for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results: Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand. The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC. An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface

  19. Detection of superior genotype of fatty acid synthase in Korean native cattle by an environment-adjusted statistical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jea-Young Lee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study examines the genetic factors influencing the phenotypes (four economic traits:oleic acid [C18:1], monounsaturated fatty acids, carcass weight, and marbling score of Hanwoo. Methods To enhance the accuracy of the genetic analysis, the study proposes a new statistical model that excludes environmental factors. A statistically adjusted, analysis of covariance model of environmental and genetic factors was developed, and estimated environmental effects (covariate effects of age and effects of calving farms were excluded from the model. Results The accuracy was compared before and after adjustment. The accuracy of the best single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP in C18:1 increased from 60.16% to 74.26%, and that of the two-factor interaction increased from 58.69% to 87.19%. Also, superior SNPs and SNP interactions were identified using the multifactor dimensionality reduction method in Table 1 to 4. Finally, high- and low-risk genotypes were compared based on their mean scores for each trait. Conclusion The proposed method significantly improved the analysis accuracy and identified superior gene-gene interactions and genotypes for each of the four economic traits of Hanwoo.

  20. Adjusting particle-size distributions to account for aggregation in tephra-deposit model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Larry G.; Van Eaton, Alexa; Durant, A.J.

    2016-01-01

    Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. Model accuracy is limited by the fact that fine-ash aggregates (clumps into clusters), thus altering patterns of deposition. In most models this is accounted for by ad hoc changes to model input, representing fine ash as aggregates with density ρagg, and a log-normal size distribution with median μagg and standard deviation σagg. Optimal values may vary between eruptions. To test the variance, we used the Ash3d tephra model to simulate four deposits: 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens; 16–17 September 1992 Crater Peak (Mount Spurr); 17 June 1996 Ruapehu; and 23 March 2009 Mount Redoubt. In 192 simulations, we systematically varied μagg and σagg, holding ρagg constant at 600 kg m−3. We evaluated the fit using three indices that compare modeled versus measured (1) mass load at sample locations; (2) mass load versus distance along the dispersal axis; and (3) isomass area. For all deposits, under these inputs, the best-fit value of μagg ranged narrowly between  ∼  2.3 and 2.7φ (0.20–0.15 mm), despite large variations in erupted mass (0.25–50 Tg), plume height (8.5–25 km), mass fraction of fine ( discrete process that is insensitive to eruptive style or magnitude. This result offers the potential for a simple, computationally efficient parameterization scheme for use in operational model forecasts. Further research may indicate whether this narrow range also reflects physical constraints on processes in the evolving cloud.

  1. Experimental Robot Model Adjustments Based on Force–Torque Sensor Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Martinez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The computational complexity of humanoid robot balance control is reduced through the application of simplified kinematics and dynamics models. However, these simplifications lead to the introduction of errors that add to other inherent electro-mechanic inaccuracies and affect the robotic system. Linear control systems deal with these inaccuracies if they operate around a specific working point but are less precise if they do not. This work presents a model improvement based on the Linear Inverted Pendulum Model (LIPM to be applied in a non-linear control system. The aim is to minimize the control error and reduce robot oscillations for multiple working points. The new model, named the Dynamic LIPM (DLIPM, is used to plan the robot behavior with respect to changes in the balance status denoted by the zero moment point (ZMP. Thanks to the use of information from force–torque sensors, an experimental procedure has been applied to characterize the inaccuracies and introduce them into the new model. The experiments consist of balance perturbations similar to those of push-recovery trials, in which step-shaped ZMP variations are produced. The results show that the responses of the robot with respect to balance perturbations are more precise and the mechanical oscillations are reduced without comprising robot dynamics.

  2. A phased transition to a market adjustment of the pseudo model of Russian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Komkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a phased reform of the economic model of Russia. In less than one century, Russia was in the extreme conditions of the model economy: the developed socialism (1917 and perfect capitalism (1991. Within each of them there was the instability of socio-economic development: economic recovery alternated recession and huge reserves of natural resources and to develop and use of land is not always effective. At each extremity of the selection was based largely on the current political aims and attitudes formed by various social groups. Russia achieved the economic situation and the prevailing socio-economic model of many subjected to fair criticism. To improve it proposes a phased approach to reform, when the main focus is on "how" to move to a new state. The approach is based on consideration of the scenario approach to the reform of the basic components of the economic model that involves the formation of a better scenario analysis and evaluation of the expert community the degree of closeness of planned versions of the model national development objectives of the country.

  3. Adjustment and Characterization of an Original Model of Chronic Ischemic Heart Failure in Pig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Barandon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present and characterize an original experimental model to create a chronic ischemic heart failure in pig. Two ameroid constrictors were placed around the LAD and the circumflex artery. Two months after surgery, pigs presented a poor LV function associated with a severe mitral valve insufficiency. Echocardiography analysis showed substantial anomalies in radial and circumferential deformations, both on the anterior and lateral surface of the heart. These anomalies in function were coupled with anomalies of perfusion observed in echocardiography after injection of contrast medium. No demonstration of myocardial infarction was observed with histological analysis. Our findings suggest that we were able to create and to stabilize a chronic ischemic heart failure model in the pig. This model represents a useful tool for the development of new medical or surgical treatment in this field.

  4. Psychosocial adjustment of children with chronic illness: an evaluation of three models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartstein, M A; Short, A D; Vannatta, K; Noll, R B

    1999-06-01

    This study was designed to assess social, emotional, and behavioral functioning of children with chronic illness and to evaluate three models addressing the impact of chronic illness on psychosocial functioning: discrete disease, noncategorical, and mixed. Families of children with cancer, sickle cell disease, hemophilia, and juvenile rheumatoid arthritis participated, along with families of classroom comparison peers without a chronic illness who had the closest date of birth and were of the same race and gender (COMPs). Mothers, fathers, and children provided information regarding current functioning of the child with chronic illness or the COMP child. Child Behavior Checklist and Children's Depression Inventory scores were examined. Results provided support for the noncategorical model. Thus, the mixed model evaluated in this study requires modifications before its effectiveness as a classification system can be demonstrated.

  5. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  6. Adjustment of cast metal post/cores modeled with different acrylic resins

    OpenAIRE

    Gusmão, João Milton Rocha; Pereira, Renato Piai; Alves, Guilhermino Oliveira; Pithon, Matheus Melo; Moreira, David Costa

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Evaluate the performance of four commercially available chemically-activated acrylic resins (CAARs) by measuring the level of displacement of the cores following casting. Materials and Methods: Two devices were constructed to model the cores based on a natural tooth. Forty post/cores were modeled, 10 in each of the following CAARs: Duralay (Reliance Dental, Illinois, USA), Pattern Resin (GC, Tokyo, Japan), Dencrilay (Dencril, Sao Paulo, Brazil), and Jet (Clássico, Sao Paulo, Brazil). Two...

  7. The Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost Model and the Demand for Labour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Haldrup, Niels

    1994-01-01

    Der udvikles en ny metode til estimation og test af den lineære kvadratiske tilpasningsomkostningsmodel når de underliggende tidsserier er ikke-stationære, og metoden anvendes til modellering af arbejdskraftefterspørgslen i danske industrisektorer.......Der udvikles en ny metode til estimation og test af den lineære kvadratiske tilpasningsomkostningsmodel når de underliggende tidsserier er ikke-stationære, og metoden anvendes til modellering af arbejdskraftefterspørgslen i danske industrisektorer....

  8. Repatriation Adjustment: Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamze Arman

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Expatriation is a widely studied area of research in work and organizational psychology. After expatriates accomplish their missions in host countries, they return to their countries and this process is called repatriation. Adjustment constitutes a crucial part in repatriation research. In the present literature review, research about repatriation adjustment was reviewed with the aim of defining the whole picture in this phenomenon. Present research was classified on the basis of a theoretical model of repatriation adjustment. Basic frame consisted of antecedents, adjustment, outcomes as main variables and personal characteristics/coping strategies and organizational strategies as moderating variables.

  9. Effect of Treatment Education Based on the Roy Adaptation Model on Adjustment of Hemodialysis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kacaroglu Vicdan, Ayse; Gulseven Karabacak, Bilgi

    2016-01-01

    The Roy Adaptation Model examines the individual in 4 fields: physiological mode, self-concept mode, role function mode, and interdependence mode. Hemodialysis treatment is associated with the Roy Adaptation Model as it involves fields that might be needed by the individual with chronic renal disease. This research was conducted as randomized controlled experiment with the aim of determining the effect of the education given in accordance with the Roy Adaptation Model on physiological, psychological, and social adaptation of individuals undergoing hemodialysis treatment. This was a random controlled experimental study. The study was conducted at a dialysis center in Konya-Aksehir in Turkey between July 1 and December 31, 2012. The sample was composed of 82 individuals-41 experimental and 41 control. In the second interview, there was a decrease in the systolic blood pressures and body weights of the experimental group, an increase in the scores of functional performance and self-respect, and a decrease in the scores of psychosocial adaptation. In the control group, on the other hand, there was a decrease in the scores of self-respect and an increase in the scores of psychosocial adaptation. The 2 groups were compared in terms of adaptation variables and a difference was determined on behalf of the experimental group. The training that was provided and evaluated for individuals receiving hemodialysis according to 4 modes of the Roy Adaptation Model increased physical, psychological, and social adaptation.

  10. A Unified Model Exploring Parenting Practices as Mediators of Marital Conflict and Children's Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coln, Kristen L.; Jordan, Sara S.; Mercer, Sterett H.

    2013-01-01

    We examined positive and negative parenting practices and psychological control as mediators of the relations between constructive and destructive marital conflict and children's internalizing and externalizing problems in a unified model. Married mothers of 121 children between the ages of 6 and 12 completed questionnaires measuring marital…

  11. Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus Umlauf

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

  12. Angle-adjustable density field formulation for the modeling of crystalline microstructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zi-Le; Liu, Zhirong; Huang, Zhi-Feng

    2018-05-01

    A continuum density field formulation with particle-scale resolution is constructed to simultaneously incorporate the orientation dependence of interparticle interactions and the rotational invariance of the system, a fundamental but challenging issue in modeling the structure and dynamics of a broad range of material systems across variable scales. This generalized phase field crystal-type approach is based upon the complete expansion of particle direct correlation functions and the concept of isotropic tensors. Through applications to the modeling of various two- and three-dimensional crystalline structures, our study demonstrates the capability of bond-angle control in this continuum field theory and its effects on the emergence of ordered phases, and provides a systematic way of performing tunable angle analyses for crystalline microstructures.

  13. Estimation of direct effects for survival data by using the Aalen additive hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Gerster, Mette

    2011-01-01

    We extend the definition of the controlled direct effect of a point exposure on a survival outcome, other than through some given, time-fixed intermediate variable, to the additive hazard scale. We propose two-stage estimators for this effect when the exposure is dichotomous and randomly assigned...... Aalen's additive regression for the event time, given exposure, intermediate variable and confounders. The second stage involves applying Aalen's additive model, given the exposure alone, to a modified stochastic process (i.e. a modification of the observed counting process based on the first...

  14. Geometric Modeling of Cellular Materials for Additive Manufacturing in Biomedical Field: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianpaolo Savio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Advances in additive manufacturing technologies facilitate the fabrication of cellular materials that have tailored functional characteristics. The application of solid freeform fabrication techniques is especially exploited in designing scaffolds for tissue engineering. In this review, firstly, a classification of cellular materials from a geometric point of view is proposed; then, the main approaches on geometric modeling of cellular materials are discussed. Finally, an investigation on porous scaffolds fabricated by additive manufacturing technologies is pointed out. Perspectives in geometric modeling of scaffolds for tissue engineering are also proposed.

  15. Geometric Modeling of Cellular Materials for Additive Manufacturing in Biomedical Field: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savio, Gianpaolo; Rosso, Stefano; Meneghello, Roberto; Concheri, Gianmaria

    2018-01-01

    Advances in additive manufacturing technologies facilitate the fabrication of cellular materials that have tailored functional characteristics. The application of solid freeform fabrication techniques is especially exploited in designing scaffolds for tissue engineering. In this review, firstly, a classification of cellular materials from a geometric point of view is proposed; then, the main approaches on geometric modeling of cellular materials are discussed. Finally, an investigation on porous scaffolds fabricated by additive manufacturing technologies is pointed out. Perspectives in geometric modeling of scaffolds for tissue engineering are also proposed.

  16. Geometric Modeling of Cellular Materials for Additive Manufacturing in Biomedical Field: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, Stefano; Meneghello, Roberto; Concheri, Gianmaria

    2018-01-01

    Advances in additive manufacturing technologies facilitate the fabrication of cellular materials that have tailored functional characteristics. The application of solid freeform fabrication techniques is especially exploited in designing scaffolds for tissue engineering. In this review, firstly, a classification of cellular materials from a geometric point of view is proposed; then, the main approaches on geometric modeling of cellular materials are discussed. Finally, an investigation on porous scaffolds fabricated by additive manufacturing technologies is pointed out. Perspectives in geometric modeling of scaffolds for tissue engineering are also proposed. PMID:29487626

  17. A Generic Model for Relative Adjustment Between Optical Sensors Using Rigorous Orbit Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Islam

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The classical calibration or space resection is the fundamental task in photogrammetry. The lack of sufficient knowledge of interior and exterior orientation parameters lead to unreliable results in the photogrammetric process. One of the earliest in approaches using in photogrammetry was the plumb line calibration method. This method is suitable to recover the radial and decentering lens distortion coefficients, while the remaining interior(focal length and principal point coordinates and exterior orientation parameters have to be determined by a complimentary method. As the lens distortion remains very less it not considered as the interior orientation parameters, in the present rigorous sensor model. There are several other available methods based on the photogrammetric collinearity equations, which consider the determination of exterior orientation parameters, with no mention to the simultaneous determination of inner orientation parameters. Normal space resection methods solve the problem using control points, whose coordinates are known both in image and object reference systems. The non-linearity of the model and the problems, in point location in digital images and identifying the maximum GPS measured control points are the main drawbacks of the classical approaches. This paper addresses mathematical model based on the fundamental assumption of collineariy of three points of two Along-Track Stereo imagery sensors and independent object point. Assuming this condition it is possible to extract the exterior orientation (EO parameters for a long strip and single image together, without and with using the control points. Moreover, after extracting the EO parameters the accuracy for satellite data products are compared in with using single and with no control points.

  18. Constructing Quality Adjusted Price Indexes: a Comparison of Hedonic and Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    N. Jonker

    2001-01-01

    The Boskin report (1996) concluded that the US consumer price index (CPI) overestimated the inflation by 1.1 percentage points. This was due to several measurement errors in the CPI. One of them is called quality change bias. In this paper two methods are compared which can be used to eliminate quality change bias, namely the hedonic method and a method based on the use of discrete choice models. The underlying micro-economic fundations of the two methods are compared as well as their empiric...

  19. Estimation of additive and dominance variance for reproductive traits from different models in Duroc purebred

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talerngsak Angkuraseranee

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The additive and dominance genetic variances of 5,801 Duroc reproductive and growth records were estimated usingBULPF90 PC-PACK. Estimates were obtained for number born alive (NBA, birth weight (BW, number weaned (NW, andweaning weight (WW. Data were analyzed using two mixed model equations. The first model included fixed effects andrandom effects identifying inbreeding depression, additive gene effect and permanent environments effects. The secondmodel was similar to the first model, but included the dominance genotypic effect. Heritability estimates of NBA, BW, NWand WW from the two models were 0.1558/0.1716, 0.1616/0.1737, 0.0372/0.0874 and 0.1584/0.1516 respectively. Proportionsof dominance effect to total phenotypic variance from the dominance model were 0.1024, 0.1625, 0.0470, and 0.1536 for NBA,BW, NW and WW respectively. Dominance effects were found to have sizable influence on the litter size traits analyzed.Therefore, genetic evaluation with the dominance model (Model 2 is found more appropriate than the animal model (Model 1.

  20. Integrated reservoir characterization: Improvement in heterogeneities stochastic modelling by integration of additional external constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doligez, B.; Eschard, R. [Institut Francais du Petrole, Rueil Malmaison (France); Geffroy, F. [Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau (France)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    The classical approach to construct reservoir models is to start with a fine scale geological model which is informed with petrophysical properties. Then scaling-up techniques allow to obtain a reservoir model which is compatible with the fluid flow simulators. Geostatistical modelling techniques are widely used to build the geological models before scaling-up. These methods provide equiprobable images of the area under investigation, which honor the well data, and which variability is the same than the variability computed from the data. At an appraisal phase, when few data are available, or when the wells are insufficient to describe all the heterogeneities and the behavior of the field, additional constraints are needed to obtain a more realistic geological model. For example, seismic data or stratigraphic models can provide average reservoir information with an excellent areal coverage, but with a poor vertical resolution. New advances in modelisation techniques allow now to integrate this type of additional external information in order to constrain the simulations. In particular, 2D or 3D seismic derived information grids, or sand-shale ratios maps coming from stratigraphic models can be used as external drifts to compute the geological image of the reservoir at the fine scale. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of these new tools, their impact on the final reservoir model, and their sensitivity to some key parameters.

  1. Dynamic gauge adjustment of high-resolution X-band radar data for convective rain storms: Model-based evaluation against measured combined sewer overflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    estimates through a hydraulic urban drainage model. The model is built entirely from physical data, without any calibration, to avoid bias towards any specific type of rainfall estimate. The performance is assessed by comparing measured and modelled water levels at a weir downstream of a highly impermeable......Numerous studies have shown that radar rainfall estimates need to be adjusted against rain gauge measurements in order to be useful for hydrological modelling. In the current study we investigate if adjustment can improve radar rainfall estimates to the point where they can be used for modelling...... overflows from urban drainage systems, and we furthermore investigate the importance of the aggregation period of the adjustment scheme. This is done by continuously adjusting X-band radar data based on the previous 5–30 min of rain data recorded by multiple rain gauges and propagating the rainfall...

  2. Modeling long correlation times using additive binary Markov chains: Applications to wind generation time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Juliane; Zachow, Christopher; Witthaut, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial temporal fluctuations properly. We apply the concept of additive binary Markov chains to model a wind generation time series consisting of two states: periods of high and low wind generation. The only input parameter for this model is the empirical autocorrelation function. The two-state model is readily extended to stochastically reproduce the actual generation per period. To evaluate the additive binary Markov chain method, we introduce a coarse model of the electric power system to derive backup and storage needs. We find that the temporal correlations of wind power generation, the backup need as a function of the storage capacity, and the resting time distribution of high and low wind events for different shares of wind generation can be reconstructed.

  3. Modeling long correlation times using additive binary Markov chains: Applications to wind generation time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Juliane; Zachow, Christopher; Witthaut, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial temporal fluctuations properly. We apply the concept of additive binary Markov chains to model a wind generation time series consisting of two states: periods of high and low wind generation. The only input parameter for this model is the empirical autocorrelation function. The two-state model is readily extended to stochastically reproduce the actual generation per period. To evaluate the additive binary Markov chain method, we introduce a coarse model of the electric power system to derive backup and storage needs. We find that the temporal correlations of wind power generation, the backup need as a function of the storage capacity, and the resting time distribution of high and low wind events for different shares of wind generation can be reconstructed.

  4. Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

    2016-10-01

    In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

  5. The regression-calibration method for fitting generalized linear models with additive measurement error

    OpenAIRE

    James W. Hardin; Henrik Schmeidiche; Raymond J. Carroll

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses and illustrates the method of regression calibration. This is a straightforward technique for fitting models with additive measurement error. We present this discussion in terms of generalized linear models (GLMs) following the notation defined in Hardin and Carroll (2003). Discussion will include specified measurement error, measurement error estimated by replicate error-prone proxies, and measurement error estimated by instrumental variables. The discussion focuses on s...

  6. Dark Matter candidate in Inert Doublet Model with additional local gauge symmetry U (1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaitán, R.; De Oca, J.H. Montes; Garcés, E. A.; Cabral-Rosetti, L. G.

    2016-01-01

    We consider the Inert Doublet Model (IDM) with an additional local gauge symmetry U (1) and a complex singlet scalar to break the symmetry U (1). The continuous symmetry U (1) is introduced to control the CP-conserving interaction instead of some discrete symmetries as usually. We present the mass spectrum for neutral scalar and gauge bosons and the values of the charges under U (1) for which the model could have a candidate to dark matter. (paper)

  7. An ice flow modeling perspective on bedrock adjustment patterns of the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Olaizola

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the launch in 2002 of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellites, several estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS have been produced. To obtain ice mass changes, the GRACE data need to be corrected for the effect of deformation changes of the Earth's crust. Recently, a new method has been proposed where ice mass changes and bedrock changes are simultaneously solved. Results show bedrock subsidence over almost the entirety of Greenland in combination with ice mass loss which is only half of the currently standing estimates. This subsidence can be an elastic response, but it may however also be a delayed response to past changes. In this study we test whether these subsidence patterns are consistent with ice dynamical modeling results. We use a 3-D ice sheet–bedrock model with a surface mass balance forcing based on a mass balance gradient approach to study the pattern and magnitude of bedrock changes in Greenland. Different mass balance forcings are used. Simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum yield a bedrock delay with respect to the mass balance forcing of nearly 3000 yr and an average uplift at present of 0.3 mm yr−1. The spatial pattern of bedrock changes shows a small central subsidence as well as more intense uplift in the south. These results are not compatible with the gravity based reconstructions showing a subsidence with a maximum in central Greenland, thereby questioning whether the claim of halving of the ice mass change is justified.

  8. Modifying the baricity of local anesthetics for spinal anesthesia by temperature adjustment: model calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Axel R; Zimmermann, Katrin; Seele, Kristin; Rössel, Thomas; Koch, Thea; Litz, Rainer J

    2006-08-01

    Although local anesthetics (LAs) are hyperbaric at room temperature, density drops within minutes after administration into the subarachnoid space. LAs become hypobaric and therefore may cranially ascend during spinal anesthesia in an uncontrolled manner. The authors hypothesized that temperature and density of LA solutions have a nonlinear relation that may be described by a polynomial equation, and that conversion of this equation may provide the temperature at which individual LAs are isobaric. Density of cerebrospinal fluid was measured using a vibrating tube densitometer. Temperature-dependent density data were obtained from all LAs commonly used for spinal anesthesia, at least in triplicate at 5 degrees, 20 degrees, 30 degrees, and 37 degrees C. The hypothesis was tested by fitting the obtained data into polynomial mathematical models allowing calculations of substance-specific isobaric temperatures. Cerebrospinal fluid at 37 degrees C had a density of 1.000646 +/- 0.000086 g/ml. Three groups of local anesthetics with similar temperature (T, degrees C)-dependent density (rho) characteristics were identified: articaine and mepivacaine, rho1(T) = 1.008-5.36 E-06 T2 (heavy LAs, isobaric at body temperature); L-bupivacaine, rho2(T) = 1.007-5.46 E-06 T2 (intermediate LA, less hypobaric than saline); bupivacaine, ropivacaine, prilocaine, and lidocaine, rho3(T) = 1.0063-5.0 E-06 T (light LAs, more hypobaric than saline). Isobaric temperatures (degrees C) were as follows: 5 mg/ml bupivacaine, 35.1; 5 mg/ml L-bupivacaine, 37.0; 5 mg/ml ropivacaine, 35.1; 20 mg/ml articaine, 39.4. Sophisticated measurements and mathematic models now allow calculation of the ideal injection temperature of LAs and, thus, even better control of LA distribution within the cerebrospinal fluid. The given formulae allow the adaptation on subpopulations with varying cerebrospinal fluid density.

  9. Antimicrobial combinations: Bliss independence and Loewe additivity derived from mechanistic multi-hit models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Guozhi; Hozé, Nathanaël; Rolff, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) and antibiotics reduce the net growth rate of bacterial populations they target. It is relevant to understand if effects of multiple antimicrobials are synergistic or antagonistic, in particular for AMP responses, because naturally occurring responses involve multiple AMPs. There are several competing proposals describing how multiple types of antimicrobials add up when applied in combination, such as Loewe additivity or Bliss independence. These additivity terms are defined ad hoc from abstract principles explaining the supposed interaction between the antimicrobials. Here, we link these ad hoc combination terms to a mathematical model that represents the dynamics of antimicrobial molecules hitting targets on bacterial cells. In this multi-hit model, bacteria are killed when a certain number of targets are hit by antimicrobials. Using this bottom-up approach reveals that Bliss independence should be the model of choice if no interaction between antimicrobial molecules is expected. Loewe additivity, on the other hand, describes scenarios in which antimicrobials affect the same components of the cell, i.e. are not acting independently. While our approach idealizes the dynamics of antimicrobials, it provides a conceptual underpinning of the additivity terms. The choice of the additivity term is essential to determine synergy or antagonism of antimicrobials. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of arthropod antimicrobial peptides’. PMID:27160596

  10. Antimicrobial combinations: Bliss independence and Loewe additivity derived from mechanistic multi-hit models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeder, Desiree Y; Yu, Guozhi; Hozé, Nathanaël; Rolff, Jens; Regoes, Roland R

    2016-05-26

    Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) and antibiotics reduce the net growth rate of bacterial populations they target. It is relevant to understand if effects of multiple antimicrobials are synergistic or antagonistic, in particular for AMP responses, because naturally occurring responses involve multiple AMPs. There are several competing proposals describing how multiple types of antimicrobials add up when applied in combination, such as Loewe additivity or Bliss independence. These additivity terms are defined ad hoc from abstract principles explaining the supposed interaction between the antimicrobials. Here, we link these ad hoc combination terms to a mathematical model that represents the dynamics of antimicrobial molecules hitting targets on bacterial cells. In this multi-hit model, bacteria are killed when a certain number of targets are hit by antimicrobials. Using this bottom-up approach reveals that Bliss independence should be the model of choice if no interaction between antimicrobial molecules is expected. Loewe additivity, on the other hand, describes scenarios in which antimicrobials affect the same components of the cell, i.e. are not acting independently. While our approach idealizes the dynamics of antimicrobials, it provides a conceptual underpinning of the additivity terms. The choice of the additivity term is essential to determine synergy or antagonism of antimicrobials.This article is part of the themed issue 'Evolutionary ecology of arthropod antimicrobial peptides'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. Vector generalized linear and additive models with an implementation in R

    CERN Document Server

    Yee, Thomas W

    2015-01-01

    This book presents a statistical framework that expands generalized linear models (GLMs) for regression modelling. The framework shared in this book allows analyses based on many semi-traditional applied statistics models to be performed as a coherent whole. This is possible through the approximately half-a-dozen major classes of statistical models included in the book and the software infrastructure component, which makes the models easily operable.    The book’s methodology and accompanying software (the extensive VGAM R package) are directed at these limitations, and this is the first time the methodology and software are covered comprehensively in one volume. Since their advent in 1972, GLMs have unified important distributions under a single umbrella with enormous implications. The demands of practical data analysis, however, require a flexibility that GLMs do not have. Data-driven GLMs, in the form of generalized additive models (GAMs), are also largely confined to the exponential family. This book ...

  12. Sparse Additive Ordinary Differential Equations for Dynamic Gene Regulatory Network Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hulin; Lu, Tao; Xue, Hongqi; Liang, Hua

    2014-04-02

    The gene regulation network (GRN) is a high-dimensional complex system, which can be represented by various mathematical or statistical models. The ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is one of the popular dynamic GRN models. High-dimensional linear ODE models have been proposed to identify GRNs, but with a limitation of the linear regulation effect assumption. In this article, we propose a sparse additive ODE (SA-ODE) model, coupled with ODE estimation methods and adaptive group LASSO techniques, to model dynamic GRNs that could flexibly deal with nonlinear regulation effects. The asymptotic properties of the proposed method are established and simulation studies are performed to validate the proposed approach. An application example for identifying the nonlinear dynamic GRN of T-cell activation is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

  13. Fast Cloud Adjustment to Increasing CO2 in a Superparameterized Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marat Khairoutdinov

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Two-year simulation experiments with a superparameterized climate model, SP-CAM, are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N cloud response to an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values.The greenhouse effect of the CO2 perturbation quickly warms the tropical land surfaces by an average of 0.5 K. This shifts rising motion, surface precipitation, and cloud cover at all levels from the ocean to the land, with only small net tropical-mean cloud changes. There is a widespread average reduction of about 80 m in the depth of the trade inversion capping the marine boundary layer (MBL over the cooler subtropical oceans.One apparent contributing factor is CO2-enhanced downwelling longwave radiation, which reduces boundary-layer radiative cooling, a primary driver of turbulent entrainment through the trade inversion. A second contributor is a slight CO2-induced heating of the free troposphere above the MBL, which strengthens the trade inversion and also inhibits entrainment. There is a corresponding downward displacement of MBL clouds with a very slight decrease in mean cloud cover and albedo.Two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM simulations of this MBL response are run to steady state using composite SP-CAM simulated thermodynamic and wind profiles from a representative cool subtropical ocean regime, for the control and 4xCO2 cases. Simulations with a CRM grid resolution equal to that of SP-CAM are compared with much finer resolution simulations. The coarse-resolution simulations maintain a cloud fraction and albedo comparable to SP-CAM, but the fine-resolution simulations have a much smaller cloud fraction. Nevertheless, both CRM configurations simulate a reduction in inversion height comparable to SP-CAM. The changes in low cloud cover and albedo in the CRM simulations are small, but both simulations predict a slight reduction in low cloud albedo as in SP-CAM.

  14. Additive quark model and double scattering of pions and protons in deuterium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bialas, A.; Czyz, W.; Kisielewska, D.

    1981-01-01

    It is shown that the additive quark model is compatible with the data on double scattering of pions and protons in deuterium. The cross-section for interaction of the hadrons created in the first collision with the second nucleon of the target is determined to be 20-25 mb. (author)

  15. Parametrically Guided Generalized Additive Models with Application to Mergers and Acquisitions Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Maity, Arnab; Wang, Yihui; Wu, Yichao

    2013-01-01

    Generalized nonparametric additive models present a flexible way to evaluate the effects of several covariates on a general outcome of interest via a link function. In this modeling framework, one assumes that the effect of each of the covariates is nonparametric and additive. However, in practice, often there is prior information available about the shape of the regression functions, possibly from pilot studies or exploratory analysis. In this paper, we consider such situations and propose an estimation procedure where the prior information is used as a parametric guide to fit the additive model. Specifically, we first posit a parametric family for each of the regression functions using the prior information (parametric guides). After removing these parametric trends, we then estimate the remainder of the nonparametric functions using a nonparametric generalized additive model, and form the final estimates by adding back the parametric trend. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the estimates and show that when a good guide is chosen, the asymptotic variance of the estimates can be reduced significantly while keeping the asymptotic variance same as the unguided estimator. We observe the performance of our method via a simulation study and demonstrate our method by applying to a real data set on mergers and acquisitions.

  16. Declarations pursuant to the Articles 2 and 3 of the Model Additional Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez Moreno, Sonia

    2001-01-01

    Articles 2 and 3 of the Model Additional Protocol specify the content and the time limits of the information to be provided by the States into the framework of the Safeguard Agreements. To standardize the presentation of this information the IAEA has prepared guidelines for the preparation of the documents. A detailed explanation of the guidelines is given in the paper

  17. Modeling a Change in Flowrate through Detention or Additional Pavement on the Receiving Stream : Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The addition or removal of flow from a stream affects the water surface downstream and possibly upstream. The extent of such effects is generally determined by modeling the receiving stream. Guidance that concisely describes how far up/downstream a h...

  18. Entropy-optimal weight constraint elicitation with additive multi-attribute utility models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenhoef , van Gert; Tervonen, Tommi

    2016-01-01

    We consider the elicitation of incomplete preference information for the additive utility model in terms of linear constraints on the weights. Eliciting incomplete preferences using holistic pair-wise judgments is convenient for the decision maker, but selecting the best pair-wise comparison is

  19. Does the model of additive effect in placebo research still hold true? A narrative review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Bettina; Weger, Ulrich; Heusser, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Personalised and contextualised care has been turned into a major demand by people involved in healthcare suggesting to move toward person-centred medicine. The assessment of person-centred medicine can be most effectively achieved if treatments are investigated using ‘with versus without’ person-centredness or integrative study designs. However, this assumes that the components of an integrative or person-centred intervention have an additive relationship to produce the total effect. Beecher’s model of additivity assumes an additive relation between placebo and drug effects and is thus presenting an arithmetic summation. So far, no review has been carried out assessing the validity of the additive model, which is to be questioned and more closely investigated in this review. Initial searches for primary studies were undertaken in July 2016 using Pubmed and Google Scholar. In order to find matching publications of similar magnitude for the comparison part of this review, corresponding matches for all included reviews were sought. A total of 22 reviews and 3 clinical and experimental studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The results pointed to the following factors actively questioning the additive model: interactions of various effects, trial design, conditioning, context effects and factors, neurobiological factors, mechanism of action, statistical factors, intervention-specific factors (alcohol, caffeine), side-effects and type of intervention. All but one of the closely assessed publications was questioning the additive model. A closer examination of study design is necessary. An attempt in a more systematic approach geared towards solutions could be a suggestion for future research in this field. PMID:28321318

  20. Salary adjustments

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    In accordance with decisions taken by the Finance Committee and Council in December 2007, salaries are adjusted with effect from 1 January 2008. Scale of basic salaries and scale of stipends paid to fellows (Annex R A 5 and R A 6 respectively): increased by 0.71% with effect from 1 January 2008. As a result of the stability of the Geneva consumer price index, following elements do not increase: a) Family Allowance, Child Allowance and Infant Allowance (Annex R A 3). b) Reimbursement of education fees: maximum amounts of reimbursement (Annex R A 4.01) for the academic year 2007/2008. Related adjustments will be implemented, wherever applicable, to Paid Associates and Students. As in the past, the actual percentage increase of each salary position may vary, due to the application of a constant step value and the rounding effects. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  1. Salary adjustments

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    In accordance with decisions taken by the Finance Committee and Council in December 2007, salaries are adjusted with effect from 1 January 2008. Scale of basic salaries and scale of stipends paid to fellows (Annex R A 5 and R A 6 respectively): increased by 0.71% with effect from 1 January 2008. As a result of the stability of the Geneva consumer price index, the following elements do not increase: a)\tFamily Allowance, Child Allowance and Infant Allowance (Annex R A 3); b)\tReimbursement of education fees: maximum amounts of reimbursement (Annex R A 4.01) for the academic year 2007/2008. Related adjustments will be applied, wherever applicable, to Paid Associates and Students. As in the past, the actual percentage increase of each salary position may vary, due to the application of a constant step value and rounding effects. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  2. Modeling the use of sulfate additives for potassium chloride destruction in biomass combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Hao; Grell, Morten Nedergaard; Jespersen, Jacob Boll

    2013-01-01

    Potassium chloride, KCl, formed from biomass combustion may lead to ash deposition and corrosion problems in boilers. Sulfates are effective additives for converting KCl to the less harmful K2SO4. In the present study, the decomposition of ammonium sulfate, aluminum sulfate and ferric sulfate...... of ammonium sulfate addition and ferric sulfation addition compared favorably with the experimental results. However, the model for aluminum sulfate addition under-predicted significantly the high sulfation degree of KCl observed in the experiments, possibly because of an under-estimation of the decomposition...... rate of aluminum. Under the boiler conditions of the present work, the simulation results suggested that the desirable temperature for the ferric sulfate injection was around 950-900oC, whereas for ammonium sulfate the preferable injection temperature was below 800oC....

  3. Shaft adjuster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harry, Herbert H.

    1989-01-01

    Apparatus and method for the adjustment and alignment of shafts in high power devices. A plurality of adjacent rotatable angled cylinders are positioned between a base and the shaft to be aligned which when rotated introduce an axial offset. The apparatus is electrically conductive and constructed of a structurally rigid material. The angled cylinders allow the shaft such as the center conductor in a pulse line machine to be offset in any desired alignment position within the range of the apparatus.

  4. Adjustable Pitot Probe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, George C., Jr.; Robbins, W. Eugene; Horsley, Lewis A.

    1991-01-01

    Probe readily positionable in core of uniform flow in hypersonic wind tunnel. Formed of pair of mating cylindrical housings: transducer housing and pitot-tube housing. Pitot tube supported by adjustable wedge fairing attached to top of pitot-tube housing with semicircular foot. Probe adjusted both radially and circumferentially. In addition, pressure-sensing transducer cooled internally by water or other cooling fluid passing through annulus of cooling system.

  5. Formation and reduction of carcinogenic furan in various model systems containing food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Sil; Her, Jae-Young; Lee, Kwang-Geun

    2015-12-15

    The aim of this study was to analyse and reduce furan in various model systems. Furan model systems consisting of monosaccharides (0.5M glucose and ribose), amino acids (0.5M alanine and serine) and/or 1.0M ascorbic acid were heated at 121°C for 25 min. The effects of food additives (each 0.1M) such as metal ions (iron sulphate, magnesium sulphate, zinc sulphate and calcium sulphate), antioxidants (BHT and BHA), and sodium sulphite on the formation of furan were measured. The level of furan formed in the model systems was 6.8-527.3 ng/ml. The level of furan in the model systems of glucose/serine and glucose/alanine increased 7-674% when food additives were added. In contrast, the level of furan decreased by 18-51% in the Maillard reaction model systems that included ribose and alanine/serine with food additives except zinc sulphate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A parallelized three-dimensional cellular automaton model for grain growth during additive manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Yanping; Lin, Stephen; Yan, Wentao; Liu, Wing Kam; Wagner, Gregory J.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a parallelized 3D cellular automaton computational model is developed to predict grain morphology for solidification of metal during the additive manufacturing process. Solidification phenomena are characterized by highly localized events, such as the nucleation and growth of multiple grains. As a result, parallelization requires careful treatment of load balancing between processors as well as interprocess communication in order to maintain a high parallel efficiency. We give a detailed summary of the formulation of the model, as well as a description of the communication strategies implemented to ensure parallel efficiency. Scaling tests on a representative problem with about half a billion cells demonstrate parallel efficiency of more than 80% on 8 processors and around 50% on 64; loss of efficiency is attributable to load imbalance due to near-surface grain nucleation in this test problem. The model is further demonstrated through an additive manufacturing simulation with resulting grain structures showing reasonable agreement with those observed in experiments.

  7. A parallelized three-dimensional cellular automaton model for grain growth during additive manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Yanping; Lin, Stephen; Yan, Wentao; Liu, Wing Kam; Wagner, Gregory J.

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, a parallelized 3D cellular automaton computational model is developed to predict grain morphology for solidification of metal during the additive manufacturing process. Solidification phenomena are characterized by highly localized events, such as the nucleation and growth of multiple grains. As a result, parallelization requires careful treatment of load balancing between processors as well as interprocess communication in order to maintain a high parallel efficiency. We give a detailed summary of the formulation of the model, as well as a description of the communication strategies implemented to ensure parallel efficiency. Scaling tests on a representative problem with about half a billion cells demonstrate parallel efficiency of more than 80% on 8 processors and around 50% on 64; loss of efficiency is attributable to load imbalance due to near-surface grain nucleation in this test problem. The model is further demonstrated through an additive manufacturing simulation with resulting grain structures showing reasonable agreement with those observed in experiments.

  8. NB-PLC channel modelling with cyclostationary noise addition & OFDM implementation for smart grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Togis; Gupta, K. K.

    2016-03-01

    Power line communication (PLC) technology can be a viable solution for the future ubiquitous networks because it provides a cheaper alternative to other wired technology currently being used for communication. In smart grid Power Line Communication (PLC) is used to support communication with low rate on low voltage (LV) distribution network. In this paper, we propose the channel modelling of narrowband (NB) PLC in the frequency range 5 KHz to 500 KHz by using ABCD parameter with cyclostationary noise addition. Behaviour of the channel was studied by the addition of 11KV/230V transformer, by varying load location and load. Bit error rate (BER) Vs signal to noise ratio SNR) was plotted for the proposed model by employing OFDM. Our simulation results based on the proposed channel model show an acceptable performance in terms of bit error rate versus signal to noise ratio, which enables communication required for smart grid applications.

  9. A structural model for stress, coping, and psychosocial adjustment: A multi-group analysis by stages of survivorship in Korean women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Miyoung; Kim, Jiyoung

    2018-04-01

    Prospective studies have examined factors directly affecting psychosocial adjustment during breast cancer treatment. Survivorship stage may moderate a direct effect of stress on psychosocial adjustment. This study aimed to examine relationships between stress, social support, self-efficacy, coping, and psychosocial adjustment to construct a model of the effect pathways between those factors, and determine if survivorship stage moderates those effects. Six hundred people with breast cancer completed questionnaires. Examined stages of survivorship after treatment were as follows: acute (i.e., 5 years). Stress (Perceived Stress Scale), social support (Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support), self-efficacy (New General Self Efficacy Scale), coping (Ways of Coping Checklist), and psychosocial adjustment (Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale-Self-Report-Korean Version) were measured. Self-efficacy significantly correlated with psychosocial adjustment in the acute survival stage (γ = -0.37, P psychosocial adjustment was greater in the acute (γ = -0.42, P psychosocial adjustment was stronger in the lasting survival stage (β = 0.42, P psychosocial adjustment of female breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The potential application of European market research data in dietary exposure modelling of food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennant, David Robin; Bruyninckx, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Consumer exposure assessments for food additives are incomplete without information about the proportions of foods in each authorised category that contain the additive. Such information has been difficult to obtain but the Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD) provides information about product launches across Europe over the past 20 years. These data can be searched to identify products with specific additives listed on product labels and the numbers compared with total product launches for food and drink categories in the same database to determine the frequency of occurrence. There are uncertainties associated with the data but these can be managed by adopting a cautious and conservative approach. GNPD data can be mapped with authorised food categories and with food descriptions used in the EFSA Comprehensive European Food Consumption Surveys Database for exposure modelling. The data, when presented as percent occurrence, could be incorporated into the EFSA ANS Panel's 'brand-loyal/non-brand loyal exposure model in a quantitative way. Case studies of preservative, antioxidant, colour and sweetener additives showed that the impact of including occurrence data is greatest in the non-brand loyal scenario. Recommendations for future research include identifying occurrence data for alcoholic beverages, linking regulatory food codes, FoodEx and GNPD product descriptions, developing the use of occurrence data for carry-over foods and improving understanding of brand loyalty in consumer exposure models.

  11. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-02-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based on a spline approximation of the nonparametric part of the model and the generalized estimating equations (GEE). Although the model in consideration is natural and useful in many practical applications, the literature on this model is very limited because of challenges in dealing with dependent data for nonparametric additive models. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal even if the covariance structure is misspecified. An explicit consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance is also provided. Moreover, we derive the semiparametric efficiency score and information bound under general moment conditions. By showing that our estimators achieve the semiparametric information bound, we effectively establish their efficiency in a stronger sense than what is typically considered for GEE. The derivation of our asymptotic results relies heavily on the empirical processes tools that we develop for the longitudinal/clustered data. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2014 ISI/BS.

  12. A risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost of a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Tentzeris, Vasileios; Sandri, Alberto; McKenna, Alexandra; Liew, Shan Liung; Milton, Richard; Chaudhuri, Nilanjan; Kefaloyannis, Emmanuel; Papagiannopoulos, Kostas

    2016-05-01

    To develop a clinically risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost associated with a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy programme. Prospectively collected data of 236 VATS lobectomy patients (August 2012-December 2013) were analysed retrospectively. Fixed and variable intraoperative and postoperative costs were retrieved from the Hospital Accounting Department. Baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with total cost using a multivariable linear regression and bootstrap analyses. Costs were calculated in GBP and expressed in Euros (EUR:GBP exchange rate 1.4). The average total cost of a VATS lobectomy was €11 368 (range €6992-€62 535). Average intraoperative (including surgical and anaesthetic time, overhead, disposable materials) and postoperative costs [including ward stay, high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and variable costs associated with management of complications] were €8226 (range €5656-€13 296) and €3029 (range €529-€51 970), respectively. The following variables remained reliably associated with total costs after linear regression analysis and bootstrap: carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) 0.05) in 86% of the samples. A hypothetical patient with COPD and DLCO less than 60% would cost €4270 more than a patient without COPD and with higher DLCO values (€14 793 vs €10 523). Risk-adjusting financial data can help estimate the total cost associated with VATS lobectomy based on clinical factors. This model can be used to audit the internal financial performance of a VATS lobectomy programme for budgeting, planning and for appropriate bundled payment reimbursements. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  13. SU-E-T-247: Multi-Leaf Collimator Model Adjustments Improve Small Field Dosimetry in VMAT Plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, L; Yang, F [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: The Elekta beam modulator linac employs a 4-mm micro multileaf collimator (MLC) backed by a fixed jaw. Out-of-field dose discrepancies between treatment planning system (TPS) calculations and output water phantom measurements are caused by the 1-mm leaf gap required for all moving MLCs in a VMAT arc. In this study, MLC parameters are optimized to improve TPS out-of-field dose approximations. Methods: Static 2.4 cm square fields were created with a 1-mm leaf gap for MLCs that would normally park behind the jaw. Doses in the open field and leaf gap were measured with an A16 micro ion chamber and EDR2 film for comparison with corresponding point doses in the Pinnacle TPS. The MLC offset table and tip radius were adjusted until TPS point doses agreed with photon measurements. Improvements to the beam models were tested using static arcs consisting of square fields ranging from 1.6 to 14.0 cm, with 45° collimator rotation, and 1-mm leaf gap to replicate VMAT conditions. Gamma values for the 3-mm distance, 3% dose difference criteria were evaluated using standard QA procedures with a cylindrical detector array. Results: The best agreement in point doses within the leaf gap and open field was achieved by offsetting the default rounded leaf end table by 0.1 cm and adjusting the leaf tip radius to 13 cm. Improvements in TPS models for 6 and 10 MV photon beams were more significant for smaller field sizes 3.6 cm or less where the initial gamma factors progressively increased as field size decreased, i.e. for a 1.6cm field size, the Gamma increased from 56.1% to 98.8%. Conclusion: The MLC optimization techniques developed will achieve greater dosimetric accuracy in small field VMAT treatment plans for fixed jaw linear accelerators. Accurate predictions of dose to organs at risk may reduce adverse effects of radiotherapy.

  14. Evaluating a novel tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure using a holistic systems modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Oz; Bertone, Edoardo; Beal, Cara; Stewart, Rodney A

    2018-06-01

    Population growth, coupled with declining water availability and changes in climatic conditions underline the need for sustainable and responsive water management instruments. Supply augmentation and demand management are the two main strategies used by water utilities. Water demand management has long been acknowledged as a least-cost strategy to maintain water security. This can be achieved in a variety of ways, including: i) educating consumers to limit their water use; ii) imposing restrictions/penalties; iii) using smart and/or efficient technologies; and iv) pricing mechanisms. Changing water consumption behaviours through pricing or restrictions is challenging as it introduces more social and political issues into the already complex water resources management process. This paper employs a participatory systems modelling approach for: (1) evaluating various forms of a proposed tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure, and (2) comparing scenario outcomes against the traditional restriction policy regime. System dynamics modelling was applied since it can explicitly account for the feedbacks, interdependencies, and non-linear relations that inherently characterise the water tariff (price)-demand-revenue system. A combination of empirical water use data, billing data and customer feedback on future projected water bills facilitated the assessment of the suitability and likelihood of the adoption of scarcity-driven tariff options for a medium-sized city within Queensland, Australia. Results showed that the tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure presented was preferable to restrictions since it could maintain water security more equitably with the lowest overall long-run marginal cost. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Generalized neurofuzzy network modeling algorithms using Bézier-Bernstein polynomial functions and additive decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, X; Harris, C J

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction algorithm for nonlinear dynamic systems based upon basis functions that are Bézier-Bernstein polynomial functions. This paper is generalized in that it copes with n-dimensional inputs by utilising an additive decomposition construction to overcome the curse of dimensionality associated with high n. This new construction algorithm also introduces univariate Bézier-Bernstein polynomial functions for the completeness of the generalized procedure. Like the B-spline expansion based neurofuzzy systems, Bézier-Bernstein polynomial function based neurofuzzy networks hold desirable properties such as nonnegativity of the basis functions, unity of support, and interpretability of basis function as fuzzy membership functions, moreover with the additional advantages of structural parsimony and Delaunay input space partition, essentially overcoming the curse of dimensionality associated with conventional fuzzy and RBF networks. This new modeling network is based on additive decomposition approach together with two separate basis function formation approaches for both univariate and bivariate Bézier-Bernstein polynomial functions used in model construction. The overall network weights are then learnt using conventional least squares methods. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new data based modeling approach.

  16. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Möller, M.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.; Pohjola, V.A.; Glowacki, P.; Kohler, J.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available

  17. Dynamic gauge adjustment of high-resolution X-band radar data for convective rain storms: Model-based evaluation against measured combined sewer overflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Linde, Jens Jørgen; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2016-08-01

    Numerous studies have shown that radar rainfall estimates need to be adjusted against rain gauge measurements in order to be useful for hydrological modelling. In the current study we investigate if adjustment can improve radar rainfall estimates to the point where they can be used for modelling overflows from urban drainage systems, and we furthermore investigate the importance of the aggregation period of the adjustment scheme. This is done by continuously adjusting X-band radar data based on the previous 5-30 min of rain data recorded by multiple rain gauges and propagating the rainfall estimates through a hydraulic urban drainage model. The model is built entirely from physical data, without any calibration, to avoid bias towards any specific type of rainfall estimate. The performance is assessed by comparing measured and modelled water levels at a weir downstream of a highly impermeable, well defined, 64 ha urban catchment, for nine overflow generating rain events. The dynamically adjusted radar data perform best when the aggregation period is as small as 10-20 min, in which case it performs much better than static adjusted radar data and data from rain gauges situated 2-3 km away.

  18. Modeling of sulfation of potassium chloride by ferric sulfate addition during grate-firing of biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Hao; Jespersen, Jacob Boll; Aho, Martti

    2013-01-01

    Potassium chloride, KCl, formed from critical ash-forming elements released during combustion may lead to severe ash deposition and corrosion problems in biomass-fired boilers. Ferric sulfate, Fe2(SO4)3 is an effective additive, which produces sulfur oxides (SO2 and SO3) to convert KCl to the less...... harmful K2SO4. In the present study the decomposition of ferric sulfate is studied in a fast-heating rate thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA), and a kinetic model is proposed to describe the decomposition process. The yields of SO2 and SO3 from ferric sulfate decomposition are investigated in a laboratory......-scale tube reactor. It is revealed that approximately 40% of the sulfur is released as SO3, the remaining fraction being released as SO2. The proposed decomposition model of ferric sulfate is combined with a detailed gas phase kinetic model of KCl sulfation, and a simplified model of K2SO4 condensation...

  19. ZVI Addition in Continuous Anaerobic Digestion Systems Dramatically Decreases P Recovery Potential: Dynamic Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puyol, D.; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Segura, Y.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study is to show the preliminary results of a (dynamic) mathematical model describing the effects of zero valent iron (ZVI) addition during the anaerobic digestion of waste activated sludge from wastewater treatment systems. A modified version of the Anaerobic Digestion Model...... No. 1 (ADM1) upgraded with an improved physico-chemical description, ZVI corrosion, propionate uptake enhancement and multiple mineral precipitation is used as a modelling platform. The proposed approach is tested against two case studies which correspond to two lab scale anaerobic digesters (AD2, AD....... Simulations demonstrate that the model is capable to satisfactorily reproduce the dynamics of hydrolysis, acetogenesis, acidogenesis, nutrient release, pH and methanogenesis in the control anaerobic digester (AD1). This study also evidences the enhancement of methane production by the influence of ZVI...

  20. Predicting mastitis in dairy cows using neural networks and generalized additive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anantharama Ankinakatte, Smitha; Norberg, Elise; Løvendahl, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop and compare methods for early detection of oncoming mastitis with automated recorded data. The data were collected at the Danish Cattle Research Center (Tjele, Denmark). As indicators of mastitis, electrical conductivity (EC), somatic cell scores (SCS), lactate...... that combines residual components into a score to improve the model. To develop and verify the model, the data are randomly divided into training and validation data sets. To predict the occurrence of mastitis, neural network models (NNs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) are developed using the training...... classification with all indicators, using individual residuals rather than factor scores. When SCS is excluded, GAMs shows better classification result when milk yield is also excluded. In conclusion, the study shows that NNs and GAMs are similar in their ability to detect mastitis, a sensitivity of almost 75...

  1. Using 3D Printing (Additive Manufacturing) to Produce Low-Cost Simulation Models for Medical Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberger, John P; Tatum, Peter S; Gada, Satyen; Wyn, Mark; Ho, Vincent B; Liacouras, Peter

    2018-03-01

    This work describes customized, task-specific simulation models derived from 3D printing in clinical settings and medical professional training programs. Simulation models/task trainers have an array of purposes and desired achievements for the trainee, defining that these are the first step in the production process. After this purpose is defined, computer-aided design and 3D printing (additive manufacturing) are used to create a customized anatomical model. Simulation models then undergo initial in-house testing by medical specialists followed by a larger scale beta testing. Feedback is acquired, via surveys, to validate effectiveness and to guide or determine if any future modifications and/or improvements are necessary. Numerous custom simulation models have been successfully completed with resulting task trainers designed for procedures, including removal of ocular foreign bodies, ultrasound-guided joint injections, nerve block injections, and various suturing and reconstruction procedures. These task trainers have been frequently utilized in the delivery of simulation-based training with increasing demand. 3D printing has been integral to the production of limited-quantity, low-cost simulation models across a variety of medical specialties. In general, production cost is a small fraction of a commercial, generic simulation model, if available. These simulation and training models are customized to the educational need and serve an integral role in the education of our military health professionals.

  2. Boosted structured additive regression for Escherichia coli fed-batch fermentation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melcher, Michael; Scharl, Theresa; Luchner, Markus; Striedner, Gerald; Leisch, Friedrich

    2017-02-01

    The quality of biopharmaceuticals and patients' safety are of highest priority and there are tremendous efforts to replace empirical production process designs by knowledge-based approaches. Main challenge in this context is that real-time access to process variables related to product quality and quantity is severely limited. To date comprehensive on- and offline monitoring platforms are used to generate process data sets that allow for development of mechanistic and/or data driven models for real-time prediction of these important quantities. Ultimate goal is to implement model based feed-back control loops that facilitate online control of product quality. In this contribution, we explore structured additive regression (STAR) models in combination with boosting as a variable selection tool for modeling the cell dry mass, product concentration, and optical density on the basis of online available process variables and two-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopic data. STAR models are powerful extensions of linear models allowing for inclusion of smooth effects or interactions between predictors. Boosting constructs the final model in a stepwise manner and provides a variable importance measure via predictor selection frequencies. Our results show that the cell dry mass can be modeled with a relative error of about ±3%, the optical density with ±6%, the soluble protein with ±16%, and the insoluble product with an accuracy of ±12%. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 321-334. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. A system dynamics model of China's electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaopeng; Ren, Dongfang; Guo, Xiaodan

    2018-06-01

    Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China's electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China's evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023-2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.

  4. A model for additive transport in metal halide lamps containing mercury and dysprosium tri-iodide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beks, M L; Haverlag, M; Mullen, J J A M van der

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of additives in a metal halide lamp is examined through numerical modelling. A model for a lamp containing sodium iodide additives has been modified to study a discharge containing dysprosium tri-iodide salts. To study the complex chemistry the method of Gibbs minimization is used to decide which species have to be taken into account and to fill lookup tables with the chemical composition at different combinations of elemental abundance, lamp pressure and temperature. The results from the model with dysprosium additives were compared with earlier results from the lamp containing sodium additives and a simulation of a pure mercury lamp. It was found that radial segregation creates the conditions required for axial segregation. Radial segregation occurs due to the unequal diffusion of atoms and molecules. Under the right conditions convection currents in the lamp can cause axial demixing. These conditions depend on the ratio of axial convection and radial diffusion as expressed by the Peclet number. At a Peclet number of unity axial segregation is most pronounced. At low Peclet numbers radial segregation is at its worst, while axial segregation is not present. At large Peclet numbers the discharge becomes homogeneously mixed. The degree of axial segregation at a Peclet number of unity depends on the temperature at which the additive under consideration fully dissociates. If the molecules dissociate very close to the walls no molecules are transported by the convective currents in the lamp, and hence axial segregation is limited. If they dissociate further away from the walls in the area where the downward convective currents are strongest, more axial segregation is observed

  5. The Additive Risk Model for Estimation of Effect of Haplotype Match in BMT Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, T; Zhang, MJ

    2011-01-01

    leads to a missing data problem. We show how Aalen's additive risk model can be applied in this setting with the benefit that the time-varying haplomatch effect can be easily studied. This problem has not been considered before, and the standard approach where one would use the expected-maximization (EM......) algorithm cannot be applied for this model because the likelihood is hard to evaluate without additional assumptions. We suggest an approach based on multivariate estimating equations that are solved using a recursive structure. This approach leads to an estimator where the large sample properties can...... be developed using product-integration theory. Small sample properties are investigated using simulations in a setting that mimics the motivating haplomatch problem....

  6. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  7. In-Situ monitoring and modeling of metal additive manufacturing powder bed fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alldredge, Jacob; Slotwinski, John; Storck, Steven; Kim, Sam; Goldberg, Arnold; Montalbano, Timothy

    2018-04-01

    One of the major challenges in metal additive manufacturing is developing in-situ sensing and feedback control capabilities to eliminate build errors and allow qualified part creation without the need for costly and destructive external testing. Previously, many groups have focused on high fidelity numerical modeling and true temperature thermal imaging systems. These approaches require large computational resources or costly hardware that requires complex calibration and are difficult to integrate into commercial systems. In addition, due to the rapid change in the state of the material as well as its surface properties, getting true temperature is complicated and difficult. Here, we describe a different approach where we implement a low cost thermal imaging solution allowing for relative temperature measurements sufficient for detecting unwanted process variability. We match this with a faster than real time qualitative model that allows the process to be rapidly modeled during the build. The hope is to combine these two, allowing for the detection of anomalies in real time, enabling corrective action to potentially be taken, or parts to be stopped immediately after the error, saving material and time. Here we describe our sensor setup, its costs and abilities. We also show the ability to detect in real time unwanted process deviations. We also show that the output of our high speed model agrees qualitatively with experimental results. These results lay the groundwork for our vision of an integrated feedback and control scheme that combines low cost, easy to use sensors and fast modeling for process deviation monitoring.

  8. Implementasi Perbandingan Metode Simple Additive Weighting Dengan Weighted Sum Model Dalam Pemilihan Siswa Berprestasi

    OpenAIRE

    Siregar, M. Fajrul Falah

    2015-01-01

    Good Performance Student Selection Program of MIN Tanjung Sari aims to increase students interest in learning. The selection is based on determined criterion. To assist the selection process, then a decision support system is needed. The method used is Simple Additive Weighting and Weighted Sum Model. In this research the results of both methods performed will be tested with the three periods of good performance students data possessed by MIN Tanjung Sari Medan Selayang. This s...

  9. A QCD derivation of the additive quark model from two and three gluon exchanges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipkin, H.J.

    1982-06-01

    The contributions to the Pomeron from two and three gluon exchanges are shown to give the correct combinatorial factors for the additive quark model relation between meson and baryon Pomeron couplings, even though two-quark and three-quark operators are involved. Similar results hold for the contributions to hadron masses from three-gluon vertices as well as one-gluon exchange. The color algebra reduces the multiquark couplings to a linear function of quark number. (author)

  10. Development of a QTL-environment-based predictive model for node addition rate in common bean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Gezan, Salvador A; Eduardo Vallejos, C; Jones, James W; Boote, Kenneth J; Clavijo-Michelangeli, Jose A; Bhakta, Mehul; Osorno, Juan M; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen; Roman-Paoli, Elvin; Gonzalez, Abiezer; Beaver, James; Ricaurte, Jaumer; Colbert, Raphael; Correll, Melanie J

    2017-05-01

    This work reports the effects of the genetic makeup, the environment and the genotype by environment interactions for node addition rate in an RIL population of common bean. This information was used to build a predictive model for node addition rate. To select a plant genotype that will thrive in targeted environments it is critical to understand the genotype by environment interaction (GEI). In this study, multi-environment QTL analysis was used to characterize node addition rate (NAR, node day - 1 ) on the main stem of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L). This analysis was carried out with field data of 171 recombinant inbred lines that were grown at five sites (Florida, Puerto Rico, 2 sites in Colombia, and North Dakota). Four QTLs (Nar1, Nar2, Nar3 and Nar4) were identified, one of which had significant QTL by environment interactions (QEI), that is, Nar2 with temperature. Temperature was identified as the main environmental factor affecting NAR while day length and solar radiation played a minor role. Integration of sites as covariates into a QTL mixed site-effect model, and further replacing the site component with explanatory environmental covariates (i.e., temperature, day length and solar radiation) yielded a model that explained 73% of the phenotypic variation for NAR with root mean square error of 16.25% of the mean. The QTL consistency and stability was examined through a tenfold cross validation with different sets of genotypes and these four QTLs were always detected with 50-90% probability. The final model was evaluated using leave-one-site-out method to assess the influence of site on node addition rate. These analyses provided a quantitative measure of the effects on NAR of common beans exerted by the genetic makeup, the environment and their interactions.

  11. Comparison of prosthetic models produced by traditional and additive manufacturing methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin-Young; Kim, Hae-Young; Kim, Ji-Hwan; Kim, Jae-Hong; Kim, Woong-Chul

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to verify the clinical-feasibility of additive manufacturing by comparing the accuracy of four different manufacturing methods for metal coping: the conventional lost wax technique (CLWT); subtractive methods with wax blank milling (WBM); and two additive methods, multi jet modeling (MJM), and micro-stereolithography (Micro-SLA). Thirty study models were created using an acrylic model with the maxillary upper right canine, first premolar, and first molar teeth. Based on the scan files from a non-contact blue light scanner (Identica; Medit Co. Ltd., Seoul, Korea), thirty cores were produced using the WBM, MJM, and Micro-SLA methods, respectively, and another thirty frameworks were produced using the CLWT method. To measure the marginal and internal gap, the silicone replica method was adopted, and the silicone images obtained were evaluated using a digital microscope (KH-7700; Hirox, Tokyo, Japan) at 140X magnification. Analyses were performed using two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey post hoc test (α=.05). The mean marginal gaps and internal gaps showed significant differences according to tooth type (Pmanufacturing method (Pmanufacturing methods were within a clinically allowable range, and, thus, the clinical use of additive manufacturing methods is acceptable as an alternative to the traditional lost wax-technique and subtractive manufacturing.

  12. Can ligand addition to soil enhance Cd phytoextraction? A mechanistic model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhongbing; Schneider, André; Nguyen, Christophe; Sterckeman, Thibault

    2014-11-01

    Phytoextraction is a potential method for cleaning Cd-polluted soils. Ligand addition to soil is expected to enhance Cd phytoextraction. However, experimental results show that this addition has contradictory effects on plant Cd uptake. A mechanistic model simulating the reaction kinetics (adsorption on solid phase, complexation in solution), transport (convection, diffusion) and root absorption (symplastic, apoplastic) of Cd and its complexes in soil was developed. This was used to calculate plant Cd uptake with and without ligand addition in a great number of combinations of soil, ligand and plant characteristics, varying the parameters within defined domains. Ligand addition generally strongly reduced hydrated Cd (Cd(2+)) concentration in soil solution through Cd complexation. Dissociation of Cd complex ([Formula: see text]) could not compensate for this reduction, which greatly lowered Cd(2+) symplastic uptake by roots. The apoplastic uptake of [Formula: see text] was not sufficient to compensate for the decrease in symplastic uptake. This explained why in the majority of the cases, ligand addition resulted in the reduction of the simulated Cd phytoextraction. A few results showed an enhanced phytoextraction in very particular conditions (strong plant transpiration with high apoplastic Cd uptake capacity), but this enhancement was very limited, making chelant-enhanced phytoextraction poorly efficient for Cd.

  13. Parenting Styles and Adjustment Outcomes among College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Keisha M.; Thomas, Deneia M.

    2014-01-01

    Research has demonstrated that parenting styles partially explain college students' academic adjustment. However, to account for academic adjustment more fully, additional contributors should be identified and tested. We examined the fit of a hypothesized model consisting of parenting styles, indicators of well-being, and academic adjustment…

  14. Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo

    2015-04-01

    This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.

  15. Multiaxial Stress-Strain Modeling and Effect of Additional Hardening due to Nonproportional Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashed, G.; Ghajar, R.; Farrahi, G.

    2007-01-01

    Most engineering components are subjected to multiaxial rather than uniaxial cyclic loading, which causes multiaxial fatigue. The pre-requisite to predict the fatigue life of such components is to determine the multiaxial stress strain relationship. In this paper the multiaxial cyclic stress-strain model under proportional loading is derived using the modified power law stress-strain relationship. The equivalent strain amplitude consisted of the normal strain excursion and maximum shear strain amplitude is used in the proportional model to include the additional hardening effect due to nonproportional loading. Therefore a new multiaxial cyclic stress-strain relationship is devised for out of phase nonproportional loading. The model is applied to the nonproportional loading case and the results are compared with the other researchers' experimental data published in the literature, which are in a reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The relationship presented here is convenient for the engineering applications

  16. Evaporation model for beam based additive manufacturing using free surface lattice Boltzmann methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klassen, Alexander; Scharowsky, Thorsten; Körner, Carolin

    2014-01-01

    Evaporation plays an important role in many technical applications including beam-based additive manufacturing processes, such as selective electron beam or selective laser melting (SEBM/SLM). In this paper, we describe an evaporation model which we employ within the framework of a two-dimensional free surface lattice Boltzmann method. With this method, we solve the hydrodynamics as well as thermodynamics of the molten material taking into account the mass and energy losses due to evaporation and the recoil pressure acting on the melt pool. Validation of the numerical model is performed by measuring maximum melt depths and evaporative losses in samples of pure titanium and Ti–6Al–4V molten by an electron beam. Finally, the model is applied to create processing maps for an SEBM process. The results predict that the penetration depth of the electron beam, which is a function of the acceleration voltage, has a significant influence on evaporation effects. (paper)

  17. Parity Symmetry and Parity Breaking in the Quantum Rabi Model with Addition of Ising Interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Qiong; He Zhi; Yao Chun-Mei

    2015-01-01

    We explore the possibility to generate new parity symmetry in the quantum Rabi model after a bias is introduced. In contrast to a mathematical treatment in a previous publication [J. Phys. A 46 (2013) 265302], we consider a physically realistic method by involving an additional spin into the quantum Rabi model to couple with the original spin by an Ising interaction, and then the parity symmetry is broken as well as the scaling behavior of the ground state by introducing a bias. The rule can be found that the parity symmetry is broken by introducing a bias and then restored by adding new degrees of freedom. Experimental feasibility of realizing the models under discussion is investigated. (paper)

  18. Hemorrhage-Adjusted Iron Requirements, Hematinics and Hepcidin Define Hereditary Hemorrhagic Telangiectasia as a Model of Hemorrhagic Iron Deficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnamore, Helen; Le Couteur, James; Hickson, Mary; Busbridge, Mark; Whelan, Kevin; Shovlin, Claire L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Iron deficiency anemia remains a major global health problem. Higher iron demands provide the potential for a targeted preventative approach before anemia develops. The primary study objective was to develop and validate a metric that stratifies recommended dietary iron intake to compensate for patient-specific non-menstrual hemorrhagic losses. The secondary objective was to examine whether iron deficiency can be attributed to under-replacement of epistaxis (nosebleed) hemorrhagic iron losses in hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT). Methodology/Principal Findings The hemorrhage adjusted iron requirement (HAIR) sums the recommended dietary allowance, and iron required to replace additional quantified hemorrhagic losses, based on the pre-menopausal increment to compensate for menstrual losses (formula provided). In a study population of 50 HHT patients completing concurrent dietary and nosebleed questionnaires, 43/50 (86%) met their recommended dietary allowance, but only 10/50 (20%) met their HAIR. Higher HAIR was a powerful predictor of lower hemoglobin (p = 0.009), lower mean corpuscular hemoglobin content (pstopped. Conclusions/significance HAIR values, providing an indication of individuals’ iron requirements, may be a useful tool in prevention, assessment and management of iron deficiency. Iron deficiency in HHT can be explained by under-replacement of nosebleed hemorrhagic iron losses. PMID:24146883

  19. Modeling Data Containing Outliers using ARIMA Additive Outlier (ARIMA-AO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Guritno, Suryo; Abdurakhman; Rahman, Abdul; Awi; Alimuddin; Minggi, Ilham; Arif Tiro, M.; Kasim Aidid, M.; Annas, Suwardi; Utami Sutiksno, Dian; Ahmar, Dewi S.; Ahmar, Kurniawan H.; Abqary Ahmar, A.; Zaki, Ahmad; Abdullah, Dahlan; Rahim, Robbi; Nurdiyanto, Heri; Hidayat, Rahmat; Napitupulu, Darmawan; Simarmata, Janner; Kurniasih, Nuning; Andretti Abdillah, Leon; Pranolo, Andri; Haviluddin; Albra, Wahyudin; Arifin, A. Nurani M.

    2018-01-01

    The aim this study is discussed on the detection and correction of data containing the additive outlier (AO) on the model ARIMA (p, d, q). The process of detection and correction of data using an iterative procedure popularized by Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994). By using this method we obtained an ARIMA models were fit to the data containing AO, this model is added to the original model of ARIMA coefficients obtained from the iteration process using regression methods. In the simulation data is obtained that the data contained AO initial models are ARIMA (2,0,0) with MSE = 36,780, after the detection and correction of data obtained by the iteration of the model ARIMA (2,0,0) with the coefficients obtained from the regression Zt = 0,106+0,204Z t-1+0,401Z t-2-329X 1(t)+115X 2(t)+35,9X 3(t) and MSE = 19,365. This shows that there is an improvement of forecasting error rate data.

  20. Metabolic modeling of energy balances in Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae shows that pyruvate addition increases growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamminga, Tjerko; Slagman, Simen-Jan; Bijlsma, Jetta J E; Martins Dos Santos, Vitor A P; Suarez-Diez, Maria; Schaap, Peter J

    2017-10-01

    Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae is cultured on large-scale to produce antigen for inactivated whole-cell vaccines against respiratory disease in pigs. However, the fastidious nutrient requirements of this minimal bacterium and the low growth rate make it challenging to reach sufficient biomass yield for antigen production. In this study, we sequenced the genome of M. hyopneumoniae strain 11 and constructed a high quality constraint-based genome-scale metabolic model of 284 chemical reactions and 298 metabolites. We validated the model with time-series data of duplicate fermentation cultures to aim for an integrated model describing the dynamic profiles measured in fermentations. The model predicted that 84% of cellular energy in a standard M. hyopneumoniae cultivation was used for non-growth associated maintenance and only 16% of cellular energy was used for growth and growth associated maintenance. Following a cycle of model-driven experimentation in dedicated fermentation experiments, we were able to increase the fraction of cellular energy used for growth through pyruvate addition to the medium. This increase in turn led to an increase in growth rate and a 2.3 times increase in the total biomass concentration reached after 3-4 days of fermentation, enhancing the productivity of the overall process. The model presented provides a solid basis to understand and further improve M. hyopneumoniae fermentation processes. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 2339-2347. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Benefits of dominance over additive models for the estimation of average effects in the presence of dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenk, Pascal; Calus, Mario P.L.; Wientjes, Yvonne C.J.; Bijma, Piter

    2017-01-01

    In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A) model, or an additive plus dominance (AD) model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and

  2. Reduction of carcinogenic 4(5)-methylimidazole in a caramel model system: influence of food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Seulgi; Ka, Mi-Hyun; Lee, Kwang-Geun

    2014-07-09

    The effect of various food additives on the formation of carcinogenic 4(5)-methylimidazole (4-MI) in a caramel model system was investigated. The relationship between the levels of 4-MI and various pyrazines was studied. When glucose and ammonium hydroxide were heated, the amount of 4-MI was 556 ± 1.3 μg/mL, which increased to 583 ± 2.6 μg/mL by the addition of 0.1 M of sodium sulfite. When various food additives, such as 0.1 M of iron sulfate, magnesium sulfate, zinc sulfate, tryptophan, and cysteine were added, the amount of 4-MI was reduced to 110 ± 0.7, 483 ± 2.0, 460 ± 2.0, 409 ± 4.4, and 397 ± 1.7 μg/mL, respectively. The greatest reduction, 80%, occurred with the addition of iron sulfate. Among the 12 pyrazines, 2-ethyl-6-methylpyrazine with 4-MI showed the highest correlation (r = -0.8239).

  3. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Yu

    Full Text Available A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke.The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient.The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82, and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84. Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008.The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  4. Adjusting tidal volume to stress index in an open lung condition optimizes ventilation and prevents overdistension in an experimental model of lung injury and reduced chest wall compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrando, Carlos; Suárez-Sipmann, Fernando; Gutierrez, Andrea; Tusman, Gerardo; Carbonell, Jose; García, Marisa; Piqueras, Laura; Compañ, Desamparados; Flores, Susanie; Soro, Marina; Llombart, Alicia; Belda, Francisco Javier

    2015-01-13

    The stress index (SI), a parameter derived from the shape of the pressure-time curve, can identify injurious mechanical ventilation. We tested the hypothesis that adjusting tidal volume (VT) to a non-injurious SI in an open lung condition avoids hypoventilation while preventing overdistension in an experimental model of combined lung injury and low chest-wall compliance (Ccw). Lung injury was induced by repeated lung lavages using warm saline solution, and Ccw was reduced by controlled intra-abdominal air-insufflation in 22 anesthetized, paralyzed and mechanically ventilated pigs. After injury animals were recruited and submitted to a positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) titration trial to find the PEEP level resulting in maximum compliance. During a subsequent four hours of mechanical ventilation, VT was adjusted to keep a plateau pressure (Pplat) of 30 cmH2O (Pplat-group, n = 11) or to a SI between 0.95 and 1.05 (SI-group, n = 11). Respiratory rate was adjusted to maintain a 'normal' PaCO2 (35 to 65 mmHg). SI, lung mechanics, arterial-blood gases haemodynamics pro-inflammatory cytokines and histopathology were analyzed. In addition Computed Tomography (CT) data were acquired at end expiration and end inspiration in six animals. PaCO2 was significantly higher in the Pplat-group (82 versus 53 mmHg, P = 0.01), with a resulting lower pH (7.19 versus 7.34, P = 0.01). We observed significant differences in VT (7.3 versus 5.4 mlKg(-1), P = 0.002) and Pplat values (30 versus 35 cmH2O, P = 0.001) between the Pplat-group and SI-group respectively. SI (1.03 versus 0.99, P = 0.42) and end-inspiratory transpulmonary pressure (PTP) (17 versus 18 cmH2O, P = 0.42) were similar in the Pplat- and SI-groups respectively, without differences in overinflated lung areas at end- inspiration in both groups. Cytokines and histopathology showed no differences. Setting tidal volume to a non-injurious stress index in an open lung condition improves

  5. Additive effect of mesenchymal stem cells and defibrotide in an arterial rat thrombosis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilli, Dilek; Kılıç, Emine; Yumuşak, Nihat; Beken, Serdar; Uçkan Çetinkaya, Duygu; Karabulut, Ramazan; Zenciroğlu, Ayşegu L

    2017-06-01

    In this study, we aimed to investigate the additive effect of mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) and defibrotide (DFT) in a rat model of femoral arterial thrombosis. Thirty Sprague Dawley rats were included. An arterial thrombosis model by ferric chloride (FeCl3) was developed in the left femoral artery. The rats were equally assigned to 5 groups: Group 1-Sham-operated (without arterial injury); Group 2-Phosphate buffered saline (PBS) injected; Group 3-MSC; Group 4-DFT; Group 5-MSC + DFT. All had two intraperitoneal injections of 0.5 ml: the 1st injection was 4 h after the procedure and the 2nd one 48 h after the 1st injection. The rats were sacrificed 7 days after the 2nd injection. Although the use of human bone marrow-derived (hBM) hBM-MSC or DFT alone enabled partial resolution of the thrombus, combining them resulted in near-complete resolution. Neovascularization was two-fold better in hBM-MSC + DFT treated rats (11.6 ± 2.4 channels) compared with the hBM-MSC (3.8 ± 2.7 channels) and DFT groups (5.5 ± 1.8 channels) (P < 0.0001 and P= 0.002, respectively). The combined use of hBM-MSC and DFT in a rat model of arterial thrombosis showed additive effect resulting in near-complete resolution of the thrombus.

  6. Delocalization model of regioselectivity and reactivity of free radicals in reactions of addition to olefins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volovik, S.V.; Dyadyusha, G.G.; Staninets, V.I.

    1987-01-01

    On the basis of the concept of polarity (philicity) of free radicals as proposed by the authors, within the framework of methods of qualitative surfaces of potential energy (linear combinations of configurations of fragments) and stabilization energy, an effective model has been developed for the regioselectivity and reactivity of radicals in processes of addition. A critical examination is made of certain key aspects of the change in regiochemistry and reactivity with changes in the electronic structure of the free radical and substrate. The dominant trends in regioselectivity and reactivity in processes of free-radical addition to olefins are controlled by electronic effects and can be predicted by analyzing interactions of diabatic potential energy surfaces or orbital interactions for a system consisting of a free radical and an unsaturated substrate

  7. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  8. Hemorrhage-adjusted iron requirements, hematinics and hepcidin define hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia as a model of hemorrhagic iron deficiency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Finnamore

    Full Text Available Iron deficiency anemia remains a major global health problem. Higher iron demands provide the potential for a targeted preventative approach before anemia develops. The primary study objective was to develop and validate a metric that stratifies recommended dietary iron intake to compensate for patient-specific non-menstrual hemorrhagic losses. The secondary objective was to examine whether iron deficiency can be attributed to under-replacement of epistaxis (nosebleed hemorrhagic iron losses in hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT.The hemorrhage adjusted iron requirement (HAIR sums the recommended dietary allowance, and iron required to replace additional quantified hemorrhagic losses, based on the pre-menopausal increment to compensate for menstrual losses (formula provided. In a study population of 50 HHT patients completing concurrent dietary and nosebleed questionnaires, 43/50 (86% met their recommended dietary allowance, but only 10/50 (20% met their HAIR. Higher HAIR was a powerful predictor of lower hemoglobin (p = 0.009, lower mean corpuscular hemoglobin content (p<0.001, lower log-transformed serum iron (p = 0.009, and higher log-transformed red cell distribution width (p<0.001. There was no evidence of generalised abnormalities in iron handling Ferritin and ferritin(2 explained 60% of the hepcidin variance (p<0.001, and the mean hepcidinferritin ratio was similar to reported controls. Iron supplement use increased the proportion of individuals meeting their HAIR, and blunted associations between HAIR and hematinic indices. Once adjusted for supplement use however, reciprocal relationships between HAIR and hemoglobin/serum iron persisted. Of 568 individuals using iron tablets, most reported problems completing the course. For patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia, persistent anemia was reported three-times more frequently if iron tablets caused diarrhea or needed to be stopped.HAIR values, providing an indication of

  9. Topsoil organic carbon content of Europe, a new map based on a generalised additive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Brogniez, Delphine; Ballabio, Cristiano; Stevens, Antoine; Jones, Robert J. A.; Montanarella, Luca; van Wesemael, Bas

    2014-05-01

    There is an increasing demand for up-to-date spatially continuous organic carbon (OC) data for global environment and climatic modeling. Whilst the current map of topsoil organic carbon content for Europe (Jones et al., 2005) was produced by applying expert-knowledge based pedo-transfer rules on large soil mapping units, the aim of this study was to replace it by applying digital soil mapping techniques on the first European harmonised geo-referenced topsoil (0-20 cm) database, which arises from the LUCAS (land use/cover area frame statistical survey) survey. A generalized additive model (GAM) was calibrated on 85% of the dataset (ca. 17 000 soil samples) and a backward stepwise approach selected slope, land cover, temperature, net primary productivity, latitude and longitude as environmental covariates (500 m resolution). The validation of the model (applied on 15% of the dataset), gave an R2 of 0.27. We observed that most organic soils were under-predicted by the model and that soils of Scandinavia were also poorly predicted. The model showed an RMSE of 42 g kg-1 for mineral soils and of 287 g kg-1 for organic soils. The map of predicted OC content showed the lowest values in Mediterranean countries and in croplands across Europe, whereas highest OC content were predicted in wetlands, woodlands and in mountainous areas. The map of standard error of the OC model predictions showed high values in northern latitudes, wetlands, moors and heathlands, whereas low uncertainty was mostly found in croplands. A comparison of our results with the map of Jones et al. (2005) showed a general agreement on the prediction of mineral soils' OC content, most probably because the models use some common covariates, namely land cover and temperature. Our model however failed to predict values of OC content greater than 200 g kg-1, which we explain by the imposed unimodal distribution of our model, whose mean is tilted towards the majority of soils, which are mineral. Finally, average

  10. Mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates: Shock tube ignition delay time measurements and chemical kinetic modeling

    KAUST Repository

    AlRamadan, Abdullah S.

    2015-10-01

    The demand for fuels with high anti-knock quality has historically been rising, and will continue to increase with the development of downsized and turbocharged spark-ignition engines. Butanol isomers, such as 2-butanol and tert-butanol, have high octane ratings (RON of 105 and 107, respectively), and thus mixed butanols (68.8% by volume of 2-butanol and 31.2% by volume of tert-butanol) can be added to the conventional petroleum-derived gasoline fuels to improve octane performance. In the present work, the effect of mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates has been investigated in a high-pressure shock tube facility. The ignition delay times of mixed butanols stoichiometric mixtures were measured at 20 and 40bar over a temperature range of 800-1200K. Next, 10vol% and 20vol% of mixed butanols (MB) were blended with two different toluene/n-heptane/iso-octane (TPRF) fuel blends having octane ratings of RON 90/MON 81.7 and RON 84.6/MON 79.3. These MB/TPRF mixtures were investigated in the shock tube conditions similar to those mentioned above. A chemical kinetic model was developed to simulate the low- and high-temperature oxidation of mixed butanols and MB/TPRF blends. The proposed model is in good agreement with the experimental data with some deviations at low temperatures. The effect of mixed butanols addition to TPRFs is marginal when examining the ignition delay times at high temperatures. However, when extended to lower temperatures (T < 850K), the model shows that the mixed butanols addition to TPRFs causes the ignition delay times to increase and hence behaves like an octane booster at engine-like conditions. © 2015 The Combustion Institute.

  11. Real-time slicing algorithm for Stereolithography (STL) CAD model applied in additive manufacturing industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adnan, F. A.; Romlay, F. R. M.; Shafiq, M.

    2018-04-01

    Owing to the advent of the industrial revolution 4.0, the need for further evaluating processes applied in the additive manufacturing application particularly the computational process for slicing is non-trivial. This paper evaluates a real-time slicing algorithm for slicing an STL formatted computer-aided design (CAD). A line-plane intersection equation was applied to perform the slicing procedure at any given height. The application of this algorithm has found to provide a better computational time regardless the number of facet in the STL model. The performance of this algorithm is evaluated by comparing the results of the computational time for different geometry.

  12. Analyzing Right-Censored Length-Biased Data with Additive Hazards Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mu ZHAO; Cun-jie LIN; Yong ZHOU

    2017-01-01

    Length-biased data are often encountered in observational studies,when the survival times are left-truncated and right-censored and the truncation times follow a uniform distribution.In this article,we propose to analyze such data with the additive hazards model,which specifies that the hazard function is the sum of an arbitrary baseline hazard function and a regression function of covariates.We develop estimating equation approaches to estimate the regression parameters.The resultant estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal.Some simulation studies and a real data example are used to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators.

  13. From path models to commands during additive printing of large-scale architectural designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chepchurov, M. S.; Zhukov, E. M.; Yakovlev, E. A.; Matveykin, V. G.

    2018-05-01

    The article considers the problem of automation of the formation of large complex parts, products and structures, especially for unique or small-batch objects produced by a method of additive technology [1]. Results of scientific research in search for the optimal design of a robotic complex, its modes of operation (work), structure of its control helped to impose the technical requirements on the technological process for manufacturing and design installation of the robotic complex. Research on virtual models of the robotic complexes allowed defining the main directions of design improvements and the main goal (purpose) of testing of the the manufactured prototype: checking the positioning accuracy of the working part.

  14. Assessing the effect, on animal model, of mixture of food additives, on the water balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Mariola; Kuchlewska, Magdalena

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine, on the animal model, the effect of modification of diet composition and administration of selected food additives on water balance in the body. The study was conducted with 48 males and 48 females (separately for each sex) of Wistar strain rats divided into four groups. For drinking, the animals from groups I and III were receiving water, whereas the animals from groups II and IV were administered 5 ml of a solution of selected food additives (potassium nitrate - E 252, sodium nitrite - E 250, benzoic acid - E 210, sorbic acid - E 200, and monosodium glutamate - E 621). Doses of the administered food additives were computed taking into account the average intake by men, expressed per body mass unit. Having drunk the solution, the animals were provided water for drinking. The mixture of selected food additives applied in the experiment was found to facilitate water retention in the body both in the case of both male and female rats, and differences observed between the volume of ingested fluids and the volume of excreted urine were statistically significant in the animals fed the basal diet. The type of feed mixture provided to the animals affected the site of water retention - in the case of animals receiving the basal diet analyses demonstrated a significant increase in water content in the liver tissue, whereas in the animals fed the modified diet water was observed to accumulate in the vascular bed. Taking into account the fact of water retention in the vascular bed, the effects of food additives intake may be more adverse in the case of females.

  15. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, pcase-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  16. Applying the Transactional Stress and Coping Model to Sickle Cell Disorder and Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus: Identifying Psychosocial Variables Related to Adjustment and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocking, Matthew C.; Lochman, John E.

    2005-01-01

    This review paper examines the literature on psychosocial factors associated with adjustment to sickle cell disease and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in children through the framework of the transactional stress and coping (TSC) model. The transactional stress and coping model views adaptation to a childhood chronic illness as mediated by…

  17. Observations and model calculations of an additional layer in the topside ionosphere above Fortaleza, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Jenkins

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available Calculations using the Sheffield University plasmasphere ionosphere model have shown that under certain conditions an additional layer can form in the low latitude topside ionosphere. This layer (the F3 layer has subsequently been observed in ionograms recorded at Fortaleza in Brazil. It has not been observed in ionograms recorded at the neighbouring station São Luis. Model calculations have shown that the F3 layer is most likely to form in summer at Fortaleza due to a combination of the neutral wind and the E×B drift acting to raise the plasma. At the location of São Luis, almost on the geomagnetic equator, the neutral wind has a smaller vertical component so the F3 layer does not form.

  18. Hybrid 2D-3D modelling of GTA welding with filler wire addition

    KAUST Repository

    Traidia, Abderrazak

    2012-07-01

    A hybrid 2D-3D model for the numerical simulation of Gas Tungsten Arc welding is proposed in this paper. It offers the possibility to predict the temperature field as well as the shape of the solidified weld joint for different operating parameters, with relatively good accuracy and reasonable computational cost. Also, an original approach to simulate the effect of immersing a cold filler wire in the weld pool is presented. The simulation results reveal two important observations. First, the weld pool depth is locally decreased in the presence of filler metal, which is due to the energy absorption by the cold feeding wire from the hot molten pool. In addition, the weld shape, maximum temperature and thermal cycles in the workpiece are relatively well predicted even when a 2D model for the arc plasma region is used. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2008-07-01

    Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

  20. Adaptive adjustment of interval predictive control based on combined model and application in shell brand petroleum distillation tower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chao; Zhang, Chunran; Gu, Xinfeng; Liu, Bin

    2017-10-01

    Constraints of the optimization objective are often unable to be met when predictive control is applied to industrial production process. Then, online predictive controller will not find a feasible solution or a global optimal solution. To solve this problem, based on Back Propagation-Auto Regressive with exogenous inputs (BP-ARX) combined control model, nonlinear programming method is used to discuss the feasibility of constrained predictive control, feasibility decision theorem of the optimization objective is proposed, and the solution method of soft constraint slack variables is given when the optimization objective is not feasible. Based on this, for the interval control requirements of the controlled variables, the slack variables that have been solved are introduced, the adaptive weighted interval predictive control algorithm is proposed, achieving adaptive regulation of the optimization objective and automatically adjust of the infeasible interval range, expanding the scope of the feasible region, and ensuring the feasibility of the interval optimization objective. Finally, feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm is validated through the simulation comparative experiments.

  1. Kriging modeling and SPSA adjusting PID with KPWF compensator control of IPMC gripper for mm-sized objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yang; Hao, Lina; Yang, Hui; Gao, Jinhai

    2017-12-01

    Ionic polymer metal composite (IPMC) as a new smart material has been widely concerned in the micromanipulation field. In this paper, a novel two-finger gripper which contains an IPMC actuator and an ultrasensitive force sensor is proposed and fabricated. The IPMC as one finger of the gripper for mm-sized objects can achieve gripping and releasing motion, and the other finger works not only as a support finger but also as a force sensor. Because of the feedback signal of the force sensor, this integrated actuating and sensing gripper can complete gripping miniature objects in millimeter scale. The Kriging model is used to describe nonlinear characteristics of the IPMC for the first time, and then the control scheme called simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation adjusting a proportion integration differentiation parameter controller with a Kriging predictor wavelet filter compensator is applied to track the gripping force of the gripper. The high precision force tracking in the foam ball manipulation process is obtained on a semi-physical experimental platform, which demonstrates that this gripper for mm-sized objects can work well in manipulation applications.

  2. GenoGAM: genome-wide generalized additive models for ChIP-Seq analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Georg; Engelhardt, Alexander; Schulz, Daniel; Schmid, Matthias; Tresch, Achim; Gagneur, Julien

    2017-08-01

    Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-Seq) is a widely used approach to study protein-DNA interactions. Often, the quantities of interest are the differential occupancies relative to controls, between genetic backgrounds, treatments, or combinations thereof. Current methods for differential occupancy of ChIP-Seq data rely however on binning or sliding window techniques, for which the choice of the window and bin sizes are subjective. Here, we present GenoGAM (Genome-wide Generalized Additive Model), which brings the well-established and flexible generalized additive models framework to genomic applications using a data parallelism strategy. We model ChIP-Seq read count frequencies as products of smooth functions along chromosomes. Smoothing parameters are objectively estimated from the data by cross-validation, eliminating ad hoc binning and windowing needed by current approaches. GenoGAM provides base-level and region-level significance testing for full factorial designs. Application to a ChIP-Seq dataset in yeast showed increased sensitivity over existing differential occupancy methods while controlling for type I error rate. By analyzing a set of DNA methylation data and illustrating an extension to a peak caller, we further demonstrate the potential of GenoGAM as a generic statistical modeling tool for genome-wide assays. Software is available from Bioconductor: https://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/GenoGAM.html . gagneur@in.tum.de. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  3. Precise control of polymer coated nanopores by nanoparticle additives: Insights from computational modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eskandari Nasrabad, Afshin; Coalson, Rob D. [Department of Chemistry, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260 (United States); Jasnow, David [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260 (United States); Zilman, Anton [Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A7 (Canada)

    2016-08-14

    Polymer-nanoparticle composites are a promising new class of materials for creation of controllable nano-patterned surfaces and nanopores. We use coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations augmented with analytical theory to study the structural transitions of surface grafted polymer layers (brushes) induced by infiltration of nanoparticles that are attracted to the polymers in the layer. We systematically compare two different polymer brush geometries: one where the polymer chains are grafted to a planar surface and the other where the chains are grafted to the inside of a cylindrical nanochannel. We perform a comprehensive study of the effects of the material parameters such as the polymer chain length, chain grafting density, nanoparticle size, strength of attraction between nanoparticles and polymer monomers, and, in the case of the cylindrically grafted brush, the radius of the cylinder. We find a very general behavioral motif for all geometries and parameter values: the height of the polymer brush is non-monotonic in the nanoparticle concentration in solution. As the nanoparticle concentration increases, the brush height first decreases and after passing through a minimum value begins to increase, resulting in the swelling of the nanoparticle infused brush. These morphological features may be useful for devising tunable “smart” nano-devices whose effective dimensions can be reversibly and precisely adjusted by changing the nanoparticle concentration in solution. The results of approximate Self-Consistent Field Theory (SCFT) calculations, applicable in the regime of strong brush stretching, are compared to the simulation results. The SCFT calculations are found to be qualitatively, even semi-quantitatively, accurate when applied within their intended regime of validity, and provide a useful and efficient tool for modeling such materials.

  4. “Skill of Generalized Additive Model to Detect PM2.5 Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summary. Measures of health outcomes are collinear with meteorology and air quality, making analysis of connections between human health and air quality difficult. The purpose of this analysis was to determine time scales and periods shared by the variables of interest (and by implication scales and periods that are not shared). Hospital admissions, meteorology (temperature and relative humidity), and air quality (PM2.5 and daily maximum ozone) for New York City during the period 2000-2006 were decomposed into temporal scales ranging from 2 days to greater than two years using a complex wavelet transform. Health effects were modeled as functions of the wavelet components of meteorology and air quality using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework. This simulation study showed that GAM is extremely successful at extracting and estimating a health effect embedded in a dataset. It also shows that, if the objective in mind is to estimate the health signal but not to fully explain this signal, a simple GAM model with a single confounder (calendar time) whose smooth representation includes a sufficient number of constraints is as good as a more complex model.Introduction. In the context of wavelet regression, confounding occurs when two or more independent variables interact with the dependent variable at the same frequency. Confounding also acts on a variety of time scales, changing the PM2.5 coefficient (magnitude and sign) and its significance ac

  5. Bioadhesive agents in addition to oral contrast media - evaluation in an animal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, R.; Schneider, G.; Textor, J.; Schild, H.H.; Fimmers, R.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the additional effect of bioadhesives in combination with iotrolan and barium as oral contrast media in an animal model. Method: The bioadhesives Noveon, CMC, Tylose and Carbopol 934 were added to iotrolan and barium. The solutions were administered to rabbits by a feeding tube. The animals were investigated by computed tomography (CT) and radiography after 0,5, 4, 12, 24 and in part after 48 hours. Mucosal coating and contrast filling of the bowel were evaluated. Results: Addition of bioadhesives to oral contrast media effected long-term contrast in the small intestine and colon, but no improvement in continuous filling and coating of the gastrointestinal tract was detected. Mucosal coating was seen only in short regions of the caecum and small intestine. In CT the best results for coating were observed with tylose and CMC, in radiography additionally with carbopol and noveon. All contrast medium solutions were well tolerated. Conclusion: The evaluated contrast medium solutions with bioadhesives have shown long-term contrast but no improvement in coating in comparison to conventional oral contrast media. (orig.) [de

  6. Effect of water addition in a microwave assisted thermal cracking of biomass tar models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warsita, Aris; Al-attab, K.A.; Zainal, Z.A.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Effective tar thermal treatment with water addition using microwave is proposed. • The reactor temperature of 1200 °C can be reached quickly at bed height 120 mm. • The optimum water to tar ratio W/T was 0.3 for tar models. • Temperature greatly effect tar removal at various W/T rates. - Abstract: Producer gas from biomass gasification is plagued by the presence of tar which causes pipe blockages. Thermal and catalytic treatments in a microwave reactor have been shown to be effective methods in removing tar from producer gas. A question arises as to the possibility of enhancing the removal mechanism by adding water into the reactor. Toluene and naphthalene were used as tar models in the present study with N_2 as the carrier gas followed by the use of simulated producer gas. Thermal treatment with various amount of water was added at temperatures in the range of 800–1200 °C. The tar removal efficiency obtained 95.83% at the optimum temperature of 1200 °C for naphthalene in for toluene 96.32% at 1050 °C at water to tar ratio (W/T) of 0.3. This study shows that the removal of tar by microwave irradiation with water addition is a significant and effective method in tar cracking.

  7. Combining neuroprotectants in a model of retinal degeneration: no additive benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiana Di Marco

    Full Text Available The central nervous system undergoing degeneration can be stabilized, and in some models can be restored to function, by neuroprotective treatments. Photobiomodulation (PBM and dietary saffron are distinctive as neuroprotectants in that they upregulate protective mechanisms, without causing measurable tissue damage. This study reports a first attempt to combine the actions of PBM and saffron. Our working hypothesis was that the actions of PBM and saffron in protecting retinal photoreceptors, in a rat light damage model, would be additive. Results confirmed the neuroprotective potential of each used separately, but gave no evidence that their effects are additive. Detailed analysis suggests that there is actually a negative interaction between PBM and saffron when given simultaneously, with a consequent reduction of the neuroprotection. Specific testing will be required to understand the mechanisms involved and to establish whether there is clinical potential in combining neuroprotectants, to improve the quality of life of people affected by retinal pathology, such as age-related macular degeneration, the major cause of blindness and visual impairment in older adults.

  8. The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

    2013-03-01

    Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

  9. Generalized additive models used to predict species abundance in the Gulf of Mexico: an ecosystem modeling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Drexler

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit ecosystem models of all types require an initial allocation of biomass, often in areas where fisheries independent abundance estimates do not exist. A generalized additive modelling (GAM approach is used to describe the abundance of 40 species groups (i.e. functional groups across the Gulf of Mexico (GoM using a large fisheries independent data set (SEAMAP and climate scale oceanographic conditions. Predictor variables included in the model are chlorophyll a, sediment type, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and depth. Despite the presence of a large number of zeros in the data, a single GAM using a negative binomial distribution was suitable to make predictions of abundance for multiple functional groups. We present an example case study using pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duroarum and compare the results to known distributions. The model successfully predicts the known areas of high abundance in the GoM, including those areas where no data was inputted into the model fitting. Overall, the model reliably captures areas of high and low abundance for the large majority of functional groups observed in SEAMAP. The result of this method allows for the objective setting of spatial distributions for numerous functional groups across a modeling domain, even where abundance data may not exist.

  10. A habitat suitability model for Chinese sturgeon determined using the generalized additive method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Yujun; Sun, Jie; Zhang, Shanghong

    2016-03-01

    The Chinese sturgeon is a type of large anadromous fish that migrates between the ocean and rivers. Because of the construction of dams, this sturgeon's migration path has been cut off, and this species currently is on the verge of extinction. Simulating suitable environmental conditions for spawning followed by repairing or rebuilding its spawning grounds are effective ways to protect this species. Various habitat suitability models based on expert knowledge have been used to evaluate the suitability of spawning habitat. In this study, a two-dimensional hydraulic simulation is used to inform a habitat suitability model based on the generalized additive method (GAM). The GAM is based on real data. The values of water depth and velocity are calculated first via the hydrodynamic model and later applied in the GAM. The final habitat suitability model is validated using the catch per unit effort (CPUEd) data of 1999 and 2003. The model results show that a velocity of 1.06-1.56 m/s and a depth of 13.33-20.33 m are highly suitable ranges for the Chinese sturgeon to spawn. The hydraulic habitat suitability indexes (HHSI) for seven discharges (4000; 9000; 12,000; 16,000; 20,000; 30,000; and 40,000 m3/s) are calculated to evaluate integrated habitat suitability. The results show that the integrated habitat suitability reaches its highest value at a discharge of 16,000 m3/s. This study is the first to apply a GAM to evaluate the suitability of spawning grounds for the Chinese sturgeon. The study provides a reference for the identification of potential spawning grounds in the entire basin.

  11. Nonlinear feedback in a six-dimensional Lorenz model: impact of an additional heating term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.-W.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, a six-dimensional Lorenz model (6DLM) is derived, based on a recent study using a five-dimensional (5-D) Lorenz model (LM), in order to examine the impact of an additional mode and its accompanying heating term on solution stability. The new mode added to improve the representation of the streamfunction is referred to as a secondary streamfunction mode, while the two additional modes, which appear in both the 6DLM and 5DLM but not in the original LM, are referred to as secondary temperature modes. Two energy conservation relationships of the 6DLM are first derived in the dissipationless limit. The impact of three additional modes on solution stability is examined by comparing numerical solutions and ensemble Lyapunov exponents of the 6DLM and 5DLM as well as the original LM. For the onset of chaos, the critical value of the normalized Rayleigh number (rc) is determined to be 41.1. The critical value is larger than that in the 3DLM (rc ~ 24.74), but slightly smaller than the one in the 5DLM (rc ~ 42.9). A stability analysis and numerical experiments obtained using generalized LMs, with or without simplifications, suggest the following: (1) negative nonlinear feedback in association with the secondary temperature modes, as first identified using the 5DLM, plays a dominant role in providing feedback for improving the solution's stability of the 6DLM, (2) the additional heating term in association with the secondary streamfunction mode may destabilize the solution, and (3) overall feedback due to the secondary streamfunction mode is much smaller than the feedback due to the secondary temperature modes; therefore, the critical Rayleigh number of the 6DLM is comparable to that of the 5DLM. The 5DLM and 6DLM collectively suggest different roles for small-scale processes (i.e., stabilization vs. destabilization), consistent with the following statement by Lorenz (1972): "If the flap of a butterfly's wings can be instrumental in generating a tornado, it can

  12. A Bayesian additive model for understanding public transport usage in special events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Borysov, Stanislav; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco

    2016-12-02

    Public special events, like sports games, concerts and festivals are well known to create disruptions in transportation systems, often catching the operators by surprise. Although these are usually planned well in advance, their impact is difficult to predict, even when organisers and transportation operators coordinate. The problem highly increases when several events happen concurrently. To solve these problems, costly processes, heavily reliant on manual search and personal experience, are usual practice in large cities like Singapore, London or Tokyo. This paper presents a Bayesian additive model with Gaussian process components that combines smart card records from public transport with context information about events that is continuously mined from the Web. We develop an efficient approximate inference algorithm using expectation propagation, which allows us to predict the total number of public transportation trips to the special event areas, thereby contributing to a more adaptive transportation system. Furthermore, for multiple concurrent event scenarios, the proposed algorithm is able to disaggregate gross trip counts into their most likely components related to specific events and routine behavior. Using real data from Singapore, we show that the presented model outperforms the best baseline model by up to 26% in R2 and also has explanatory power for its individual components.

  13. Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serinaldi, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on stochastic time series and causal models commonly provide point forecasts, whereas the corresponding uncertainty is quantified by approximate or simulation-based confidence intervals. Aiming to improve the uncertainty assessment, this study introduces the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the dynamically varying distribution of prices. The GAMLSS allow fitting a variety of distributions whose parameters change according to covariates via a number of linear and nonlinear relationships. In this way, price periodicities, trends and abrupt changes characterizing both the position parameter (linked to the expected value of prices), and the scale and shape parameters (related to price volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) can be explicitly incorporated in the model setup. Relying on the past behavior of the prices and exogenous variables, the GAMLSS enable the short-term (one-day ahead) forecast of the entire distribution of prices. The approach was tested on two datasets from the widely studied California Power Exchange (CalPX) market, and the less mature Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). CalPX data allow comparing the GAMLSS forecasting performance with published results obtained by different models. The study points out that the GAMLSS framework can be a flexible alternative to several linear and nonlinear stochastic models. - Research Highlights: ► Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to model electricity prices' time series. ► GAMLSS provide the entire dynamicaly varying distribution function of prices resorting to a suitable set of covariates that drive the instantaneous values of the parameters

  14. Adjustable, physiological ventricular restraint improves left ventricular mechanics and reduces dilatation in an ovine model of chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanta, Ravi K; Rangaraj, Aravind; Umakanthan, Ramanan; Lee, Lawrence; Laurence, Rita G; Fox, John A; Bolman, R Morton; Cohn, Lawrence H; Chen, Frederick Y

    2007-03-13

    Ventricular restraint is a nontransplantation surgical treatment for heart failure. The effect of varying restraint level on left ventricular (LV) mechanics and remodeling is not known. We hypothesized that restraint level may affect therapy efficacy. We studied the immediate effect of varying restraint levels in an ovine heart failure model. We then studied the long-term effect of restraint applied over a 2-month period. Restraint level was quantified by use of fluid-filled epicardial balloons placed around the ventricles and measurement of balloon luminal pressure at end diastole. At 4 different restraint levels (0, 3, 5, and 8 mm Hg), transmural myocardial pressure (P(tm)) and indices of myocardial oxygen consumption (MVO2) were determined in control (n=5) and ovine heart failure (n=5). Ventricular restraint therapy decreased P(tm) and MVO2, and improved mechanical efficiency. An optimal physiological restraint level of 3 mm Hg was identified to maximize improvement without an adverse affect on systemic hemodynamics. At this optimal level, end-diastolic P(tm) and MVO2 indices decreased by 27% and 20%, respectively. The serial longitudinal effects of optimized ventricular restraint were then evaluated in ovine heart failure with (n=3) and without (n=3) restraint over 2 months. Optimized ventricular restraint prevented and reversed pathological LV dilatation (130+/-22 mL to 91+/-18 mL) and improved LV ejection fraction (27+/-3% to 43+/-5%). Measured restraint level decreased over time as the LV became smaller, and reverse remodeling slowed. Ventricular restraint level affects the degree of decrease in P(tm), the degree of decrease in MVO2, and the rate of LV reverse remodeling. Periodic physiological adjustments of restraint level may be required for optimal restraint therapy efficacy.

  15. Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Cochlear Implantation and Deaf Education in Nicaragua: A Disability Adjusted Life Year Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, James E; Barrs, David M; Gong, Wenfeng; Wilson, Blake S; Mojica, Karen; Tucci, Debara L

    2015-09-01

    Cochlear implantation (CI) is a common intervention for severe-to-profound hearing loss in high-income countries, but is not commonly available to children in low resource environments. Owing in part to the device costs, CI has been assumed to be less economical than deaf education for low resource countries. The purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of the two interventions for children with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in a model using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Cost estimates were derived from published data, expert opinion, and known costs of services in Nicaragua. Individual costs and lifetime DALY estimates with a 3% discounting rate were applied to both two interventions. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate the effect on the discounted cost of five key components: implant cost, audiology salary, speech therapy salary, number of children implanted per year, and device failure probability. The costs per DALY averted are $5,898 and $5,529 for CI and deaf education, respectively. Using standards set by the WHO, both interventions are cost effective. Sensitivity analysis shows that when all costs set to maximum estimates, CI is still cost effective. Using a conservative DALY analysis, both CI and deaf education are cost-effective treatment alternatives for severe-to-profound SNHL. CI intervention costs are not only influenced by the initial surgery and device costs but also by rehabilitation costs and the lifetime maintenance, device replacement, and battery costs. The major CI cost differences in this low resource setting were increased initial training and infrastructure costs, but lower medical personnel and surgery costs.

  16. A Bayesian Additive Model for Understanding Public Transport Usage in Special Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Borysov, Stanislav S.; Ribeiro, Bernardete

    2017-01-01

    Public special events, like sports games, concerts and festivals are well known to create disruptions in transportation systems, often catching the operators by surprise. Although these are usually planned well in advance, their impact is difficult to predict, even when organisers...... additive model with Gaussian process components that combines smart card records from public transport with context information about events that is continuously mined from the Web. We develop an efficient approximate inference algorithm using expectation propagation, which allows us to predict the total...... number of public transportation trips to the special event areas, thereby contributing to a more adaptive transportation system. Furthermore, for multiple concurrent event scenarios, the proposed algorithm is able to disaggregate gross trip counts into their most likely components related to specific...

  17. H∞ Control for a Networked Control Model of Systems with Two Additive Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanyong Shao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with H∞ control for a networked control model of systems with two additive time-varying delays. A new Lyapunov functional is constructed to make full use of the information of the delays, and for the derivative of the Lyapunov functional a novel technique is employed to compute a tighter upper bound, which is dependent on the two time-varying delays instead of the upper bounds of them. Then the convex polyhedron method is proposed to check the upper bound of the derivative of the Lyapunov functional. The resulting stability criteria have fewer matrix variables but less conservatism than some existing ones. The stability criteria are applied to designing a state feedback controller, which guarantees that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. Finally examples are given to show the advantages of the stability criteria and the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

  18. Worst case prediction of additives migration from polystyrene for food safety purposes: a model update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, Brais; Gontard, Nathalie; Peyron, Stéphane

    2018-03-01

    A reliable prediction of migration levels of plastic additives into food requires a robust estimation of diffusivity. Predictive modelling of diffusivity as recommended by the EU commission is carried out using a semi-empirical equation that relies on two polymer-dependent parameters. These parameters were determined for the polymers most used by packaging industry (LLDPE, HDPE, PP, PET, PS, HIPS) from the diffusivity data available at that time. In the specific case of general purpose polystyrene, the diffusivity data published since then shows that the use of the equation with the original parameters results in systematic underestimation of diffusivity. The goal of this study was therefore, to propose an update of the aforementioned parameters for PS on the basis of up to date diffusivity data, so the equation can be used for a reasoned overestimation of diffusivity.

  19. Characterization of metal additive manufacturing surfaces using synchrotron X-ray CT and micromechanical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzos, C. A.; Cunningham, R. W.; Tari, V.; Rollett, A. D.

    2018-05-01

    Characterizing complex surface topologies is necessary to understand stress concentrations created by rough surfaces, particularly those made via laser power-bed additive manufacturing (AM). Synchrotron-based X-ray microtomography (μ XCT) of AM surfaces was shown to provide high resolution detail of surface features and near-surface porosity. Using the CT reconstructions to instantiate a micromechanical model indicated that surface notches and near-surface porosity both act as stress concentrators, while adhered powder carried little to no load. Differences in powder size distribution had no direct effect on the relevant surface features, nor on stress concentrations. Conventional measurements of surface roughness, which are highly influenced by adhered powder, are therefore unlikely to contain the information relevant to damage accumulation and crack initiation.

  20. Robot-based additive manufacturing for flexible die-modelling in incremental sheet forming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Michael; Störkle, Denis Daniel; Thyssen, Lars; Kuhlenkötter, Bernd

    2017-10-01

    The paper describes the application concept of additive manufactured dies to support the robot-based incremental sheet metal forming process (`Roboforming') for the production of sheet metal components in small batch sizes. Compared to the dieless kinematic-based generation of a shape by means of two cooperating industrial robots, the supporting robot models a die on the back of the metal sheet by using the robot-based fused layer manufacturing process (FLM). This tool chain is software-defined and preserves the high geometrical form flexibility of Roboforming while flexibly generating support structures adapted to the final part's geometry. Test series serve to confirm the feasibility of the concept by investigating the process challenges of the adhesion to the sheet surface and the general stability as well as the influence on the geometric accuracy compared to the well-known forming strategies.

  1. Additive Manufacturing of PLA and CF/PLA Binding Layer Specimens via Fused Deposition Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuhang; Gao, Shiyou; Dong, Rongmei; Ding, Xuebing; Duan, Xiaoxi

    2018-02-01

    As one of the most popular additive manufacturing techniques, fused deposition modeling (FDM) is successfully applied in aerospace, automotive, architecture, and other fields to fabricate thermoplastic parts. Unfortunately, as a result of the limited nature of the mechanical properties and mass in raw materials, there is a pressing need to improve mechanical properties and reduce weight for FDM parts. Therefore, this paper presents an experiment of a special polylactic acid (PLA) and carbon fiber (CF)/PLA-laminated experimental specimen fabricated using the FDM process. The mechanical properties and mass analysis of the new composites for the PLA and CF/PLA binding layer specimen are investigated experimentally. Through the experimental analysis, one can conclude that the mass of laminated specimen is lighter than the CF/PLA specimen, and the tensile and flexural mechanical properties are higher than the pure PLA specimen.

  2. Statistical Analysis of Coherent Ultrashort Light Pulse CDMA With Multiple Optical Amplifiers Using Additive Noise Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Kambiz; Salehi, Jawad A.

    2005-05-01

    This paper describes a study of the performance of various configurations for placing multiple optical amplifiers in a typical coherent ultrashort light pulse code-division multiple access (CULP-CDMA) communication system using the additive noise model. For this study, a comprehensive performance analysis was developed that takes into account multiple-access noise, noise due to optical amplifiers, and thermal noise using the saddle-point approximation technique. Prior to obtaining the overall system performance, the input/output statistical models for different elements of the system such as encoders/decoders,star coupler, and optical amplifiers were obtained. Performance comparisons between an ideal and lossless quantum-limited case and a typical CULP-CDMA with various losses exhibit more than 30 dB more power requirement to obtain the same bit-error rate (BER). Considering the saturation effect of optical amplifiers, this paper discusses an algorithm for amplifiers' gain setting in various stages of the network in order to overcome the nonlinear effects on signal modulation in optical amplifiers. Finally, using this algorithm,various configurations of multiple optical amplifiers in CULP-CDMA are discussed and the rules for the required optimum number of amplifiers are shown with their corresponding optimum locations to be implemented along the CULP-CDMA system.

  3. Modeling and additive manufacturing of bio-inspired composites with tunable fracture mechanical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimas, Leon S; Buehler, Markus J

    2014-07-07

    Flaws, imperfections and cracks are ubiquitous in material systems and are commonly the catalysts of catastrophic material failure. As stresses and strains tend to concentrate around cracks and imperfections, structures tend to fail far before large regions of material have ever been subjected to significant loading. Therefore, a major challenge in material design is to engineer systems that perform on par with pristine structures despite the presence of imperfections. In this work we integrate knowledge of biological systems with computational modeling and state of the art additive manufacturing to synthesize advanced composites with tunable fracture mechanical properties. Supported by extensive mesoscale computer simulations, we demonstrate the design and manufacturing of composites that exhibit deformation mechanisms characteristic of pristine systems, featuring flaw-tolerant properties. We analyze the results by directly comparing strain fields for the synthesized composites, obtained through digital image correlation (DIC), and the computationally tested composites. Moreover, we plot Ashby diagrams for the range of simulated and experimental composites. Our findings show good agreement between simulation and experiment, confirming that the proposed mechanisms have a significant potential for vastly improving the fracture response of composite materials. We elucidate the role of stiffness ratio variations of composite constituents as an important feature in determining the composite properties. Moreover, our work validates the predictive ability of our models, presenting them as useful tools for guiding further material design. This work enables the tailored design and manufacturing of composites assembled from inferior building blocks, that obtain optimal combinations of stiffness and toughness.

  4. Maternal socialization goals, parenting styles, and social-emotional adjustment among Chinese and European American young adults: testing a mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Costanzo, Philip R; Putallaz, Martha

    2010-01-01

    The authors compared the associations among perceived maternal socialization goals (self-development, filial piety, and collectivism), perceived maternal parenting styles (authoritative, authoritarian, and training), and the social-emotional adjustment (self-esteem, academic self-efficacy, and depression) between Chinese and European American young adults. The mediation processes in which socialization goals relate to young adults' adjustment outcomes through parenting styles were examined. Results showed that European American participants perceived higher maternal self-development socialization goals, whereas Chinese participants perceived higher maternal collectivism socialization goals as well as more authoritarian parenting. Cross-cultural similarities were found in the associations between perceived maternal authoritative parenting and socioemotional adjustment (e.g., higher self-esteem and higher academic self-efficacy) across the two cultural groups. However, perceived maternal authoritarian and training parenting styles were found only to be related to Chinese participants' adjustment (e.g., higher academic self-efficacy and lower depression). The mediation analyses showed that authoritative parenting significantly mediated the positive associations between the self-development and collectivism goal and socioemotional adjustment for both cultural groups. Additionally, training parenting significantly mediated the positive association between the filial piety goal and young adults' academic self-efficacy for the Chinese group only. Findings of this study highlight the importance of examining parental socialization goals in cross-cultural parenting research.

  5. Improving efficiency assessments using additive data envelopment analysis models: an application to contrasting dairy farming systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Diomedes Soteriades

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Applying holistic indicators to assess dairy farm efficiency is essential for sustainable milk production. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA has been instrumental for the calculation of such indicators. However, ‘additive’ DEA models have been rarely used in dairy research. This study presented an additive model known as slacks-based measure (SBM of efficiency and its advantages over DEA models used in most past dairy studies. First, SBM incorporates undesirable outputs as actual outputs of the production process. Second, it identifies the main production factors causing inefficiency. Third, these factors can be ‘priced’ to estimate the cost of inefficiency. The value of SBM for efficiency analyses was demonstrated with a comparison of four contrasting dairy management systems in terms of technical and environmental efficiency. These systems were part of a multiple-year breeding and feeding systems experiment (two genetic lines: select vs. control; and two feeding strategies: high forage vs. low forage, where the latter involved a higher proportion of concentrated feeds where detailed data were collected to strict protocols. The select genetic herd was more technically and environmentally efficient than the control herd, regardless of feeding strategy. However, the efficiency performance of the select herd was more volatile from year to year than that of the control herd. Overall, technical and environmental efficiency were strongly and positively correlated, suggesting that when technically efficient, the four systems were also efficient in terms of undesirable output reduction. Detailed data such as those used in this study are increasingly becoming available for commercial herds through precision farming. Therefore, the methods presented in this study are growing in importance.

  6. A Test of the Family Stress Model on Toddler-Aged Children's Adjustment among Hurricane Katrina Impacted and Nonimpacted Low-Income Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaramella, Laura V.; Sohr-Preston, Sara L.; Callahan, Kristin L.; Mirabile, Scott P.

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina dramatically altered the level of social and environmental stressors for the residents of the New Orleans area. The Family Stress Model describes a process whereby felt financial strain undermines parents' mental health, the quality of family relationships, and child adjustment. Our study considered the extent to which the Family…

  7. Adjustments in the Almod 3W2 code models for reproducing the net load trip test in Angra I nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camargo, C.T.M.; Madeira, A.A.; Pontedeiro, A.C.; Dominguez, L.

    1986-09-01

    The recorded traces got from the net load trip test in Angra I NPP yelded the oportunity to make fine adjustments in the ALMOD 3W2 code models. The changes are described and the results are compared against plant real data. (Author) [pt

  8. Motor models and transient analysis for high-temperature, superconductor switch-based adjustable speed drive applications. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, J.M.

    1996-06-01

    New high-temperature superconductor (HTSC) technology may allow development of an energy-efficient power electronics switch for adjustable speed drive (ASD) applications involving variable-speed motors, superconducting magnetic energy storage systems, and other power conversion equipment. This project developed a motor simulation module for determining optimal applications of HTSC-based power switches in ASD systems

  9. A ¤nonparametric dynamic additive regression model for longitudinal data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Scheike, T. H.

    2000-01-01

    dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models......dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models...

  10. Performance evaluation of paper embossing tools produced by fused deposition modelling additive manufacturing technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Delić

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available From its beginnings, up to a few years ago, additive manufacturing technology was able to produce models or prototypes which have limited use, because of materials mechanical properties. With advancement and invention of new materials, this is changing. Now, it is possible to create 3D prints that can be used as final products or functional tools, using technology and materials with low environmental impact. The goal of this study was to examine opportunities for production of paper embossing tools by fused deposition modelling (FDM 3D printing. This study emphasises the use of environmentally friendly poly-lactic acid (PLA materials in FDM technology, contrary to the conventional method using metal alloys and acids. Embossing of line elements and letters using 3D printed embossing tools was done on six different types of paper. Embossing force was applied using SHIMADZU EZ-LX Compact Tabletop Testing Machine. Each type of paper was repeatedly embossed using different values of embossing force (in 250 N increments, starting at 1000 N to determine the optimal embossing force for each specific paper type. When determined, the optimal embossing force was used on ten samples for each paper type. Results of embossing were analysed and evaluated. The analysis consisted of investigating the effects of the applied embossing force and characteristics such as paper basis weight, paper structure, surface characteristic and fibre direction of the paper. Results show that paper characteristics determine the embossing force required for achieving a good embossing result. This means that with the right amount of embossing force, letters and borderlines can be equally well formed by the embossing process regardless of paper weight, surface characteristics, etc. Embossing tools produced in this manner can be used in case of the embossing elements that are not complex. The reason for this is the limitation of FDM technology and lack of precision needed for fine

  11. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Predictive modeling of solidification during laser additive manufacturing of nickel superalloys: recent developments, future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Supriyo

    2018-01-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) processes produce parts with improved physical, chemical, and mechanical properties compared to conventional manufacturing processes. In AM processes, intricate part geometries are produced from multicomponent alloy powder, in a layer-by-layer fashion with multipass laser melting, solidification, and solid-state phase transformations, in a shorter manufacturing time, with minimal surface finishing, and at a reasonable cost. However, there is an increasing need for post-processing of the manufactured parts via, for example, stress relieving heat treatment and hot isostatic pressing to achieve homogeneous microstructure and properties at all times. Solidification in an AM process controls the size, shape, and distribution of the grains, the growth morphology, the elemental segregation and precipitation, the subsequent solid-state phase changes, and ultimately the material properties. The critical issues in this process are linked with multiphysics (such as fluid flow and diffusion of heat and mass) and multiscale (lengths, times and temperature ranges) challenges that arise due to localized rapid heating and cooling during AM processing. The alloy chemistry-process-microstructure-property-performance correlation in this process will be increasingly better understood through multiscale modeling and simulation.

  13. The effect of addition of selected carrageenans on viscoelastic properties of model processed cheese spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Černíková

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of 0.25% w/w κ-carrageenan and ι‑carrageenan on viscoelastic properties of processed cheese were studied using model samples containing 40% w/w dry matter and 45 and 50% w/w fat in dry matter. Experimental samples of processed cheese were evaluated after 14 days of storage at the temperature of 6 ± 2 °C. Basic parameters of processed cheese samples under study (i.e. their dry matter content and pH were not different (P ≥ 0.05. There were no statistically significant differences in values of storage modulus G´ [Pa], loss modulus G'' [Pa] and tangent of phase shift angle tan δ [-] for the reference frequency of 1 Hz between processed cheese with κ‑carrageenan applied in the form of powder and in the form of aqueous dispersion (P ≥ 0.05. The addition of 0.25% w/w κ‑carrageenan and ι‑carrageenan (in the powder form resulted in an increase in storage (G´ and loss (G'' moduli and a decrease in values of tan δ (P < 0.05. As compared with control (i.e. without added carrageenans, samples of processed cheese became firmer. Iota-carrageenan added in the powder form in concentration of 0.25% w/w showed a more intensive effect on the increase in firmness of processed cheese under study than κ‑carrageenan (P < 0.05.

  14. Exposure as Duration and Distance in Telematics Motor Insurance Using Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Boucher

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD automobile insurance, the premium is fixed based on the distance traveled, while in usage-based insurance (UBI the driving patterns of the policyholder are also considered. In those schemes, drivers who drive more pay a higher premium compared to those with the same characteristics who drive only occasionally, because the former are more exposed to the risk of accident. In this paper, we analyze the simultaneous effect of the distance traveled and exposure time on the risk of accident by using Generalized Additive Models (GAM. We carry out an empirical application and show that the expected number of claims (1 stabilizes once a certain number of accumulated distance-driven is reached and (2 it is not proportional to the duration of the contract, which is in contradiction to insurance practice. Finally, we propose to use a rating system that takes into account simultaneously exposure time and distance traveled in the premium calculation. We think that this is the trend the automobile insurance market is going to follow with the eruption of telematics data.

  15. Use of fused deposit modeling for additive manufacturing in hospital facilities: European certification directives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Joel J; Vijverman, An; Mommaerts, Maurice Y

    2017-09-01

    The goal of this study was to identify current European Union regulations governing hospital-based use of fused deposit modeling (FDM), as implemented via desktop three-dimensional (3D) printers. Literature and Internet sources were screened, searching for official documents, regulations/legislation, and views of specialized attorneys or consultants regarding European regulations for 3D printing or additive manufacturing (AM) in a healthcare facility. A detailed review of the latest amendment (2016) of the European Parliament and Council legislation for medical devices and its classification was performed, which has regularly updated published guidelines for medical devices, that are classified by type and duration of patient contact. As expected, regulations increase in accordance with the level (I-III) of classification. Custom-made medical devices are subject to different regulations than those controlling serially mass-produced items, as originally specified in 98/79/EC European Parliament and Council legislation (1993) and again recently amended (2016). Healthcare facilities undertaking in-house custom production are not obliged to fully follow the directives as stipulated, given an exception for this scenario (Article 4.4a, 98/79/EC). Patient treatment and diagnosis with the aid of customized 3D printing in a healthcare facility can be performed without fully meeting the European Parliament and Council legislation if the materials used are ISO 10993 certified and article 4.4a applies. Copyright © 2017 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Gadolinium deposition in the brain: association with various GBCAs using a generalized additive model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Sohi; Lee, Ho-Joon; Han, Kyunghwa; Park, Yae-Won; Choi, Yoon Seong; Ahn, Sung Soo; Kim, Jinna; Lee, Seung-Koo [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Severance Hospital, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    To determine the relationship between the number of administrations of various gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs) and increased T1 signal intensity in the globus pallidus (GP) and dentate nucleus (DN). This retrospective study included 122 patients who underwent double-dose GBCA-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. Two radiologists calculated GP-to-thalamus (TH) signal intensity ratio, DN-to-pons signal intensity ratio and relative change (R{sub change}) between the baseline and final examinations. Interobserver agreement was evaluated. The relationships between R{sub change} and several factors, including number of each GBCA administrations, were analysed using a generalized additive model. Six patients (4.9%) received linear GBCAs (mean 20.8 number of administration; range 15-30), 44 patients (36.1%) received macrocyclic GBCAs (mean 26.1; range 14-51) and 72 patients (59.0%) received both types of GBCAs (mean 31.5; range 12-65). Interobserver agreement was almost perfect (0.99; 95% CI: 0.99-0.99). R{sub change} (DN:pons) was associated with gadodiamide (p = 0.006) and gadopentetate dimeglumine (p < 0.001), but not with other GBCAs. R{sub change} (GP:TH) was not associated with GBCA administration. Previous administration of linear agents gadoiamide and gadopentetate dimeglumine is associated with increased T1 signal intensity in the DN, whereas macrocyclic GBCAs do not show an association. (orig.)

  17. Statistical inference for the additive hazards model under outcome-dependent sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jichang; Liu, Yanyan; Sandler, Dale P; Zhou, Haibo

    2015-09-01

    Cost-effective study design and proper inference procedures for data from such designs are always of particular interests to study investigators. In this article, we propose a biased sampling scheme, an outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) design for survival data with right censoring under the additive hazards model. We develop a weighted pseudo-score estimator for the regression parameters for the proposed design and derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. We also provide some suggestions for using the proposed method by evaluating the relative efficiency of the proposed method against simple random sampling design and derive the optimal allocation of the subsamples for the proposed design. Simulation studies show that the proposed ODS design is more powerful than other existing designs and the proposed estimator is more efficient than other estimators. We apply our method to analyze a cancer study conducted at NIEHS, the Cancer Incidence and Mortality of Uranium Miners Study, to study the risk of radon exposure to cancer.

  18. Design and modeling of an additive manufactured thin shell for x-ray astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Charlotte; Atkins, Carolyn; Brooks, David; Watson, Stephen; Cochrane, William; Roulet, Melanie; Willingale, Richard; Doel, Peter

    2017-09-01

    Future X-ray astronomy missions require light-weight thin shells to provide large collecting areas within the weight limits of launch vehicles, whilst still delivering angular resolutions close to that of Chandra (0.5 arc seconds). Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D printing, is a well-established technology with the ability to construct or `print' intricate support structures, which can be both integral and light-weight, and is therefore a candidate technique for producing shells for space-based X-ray telescopes. The work described here is a feasibility study into this technology for precision X-ray optics for astronomy and has been sponsored by the UK Space Agency's National Space Technology Programme. The goal of the project is to use a series of test samples to trial different materials and processes with the aim of developing a viable path for the production of an X-ray reflecting prototype for astronomical applications. The initial design of an AM prototype X-ray shell is presented with ray-trace modelling and analysis of the X-ray performance. The polishing process may cause print-through from the light-weight support structure on to the reflecting surface. Investigations in to the effect of the print-through on the X-ray performance of the shell are also presented.

  19. The effects of Re addition to the nanostructure of a Ni-Cr-Al model superalloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, K.E.; Seidman, D.N.; Noebe, R.D.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: The refractory elements, such as W, Mo, Ta, and Re, have been at the center of focus since the late 1970s for the development of single-crystal turbine-blades, and they have improved significantly the high-temperature properties of Ni-based superalloys. The optimum mechanical properties and operating temperature of single-crystal blades are achieved by increasing the total amounts of refractory elements. In spite of the improvement of mechanical properties of Ni-based superalloys utilizing the addition of refractory elements, their effects on the microstructure of superalloys are mostly unidentified at the subnano- to nanoscale. Rhenium (2 at.%) was added to a model ternary Ni-8.5 at.% Cr-10 at.% Al superalloy to study its effects on the temporal evolution. The temporal evolution of γ' (L1 2 ) precipitates in a Ni-Cr-AI-Re FCC alloy, aged at 1073 K from 0.25 to 264 h, is investigated by transmission-electron and three-dimensional atom-probe (3DAP) microscopies. The coarsening kinetics of γ' precipitates is investigated by measuring the mean radius, number density of precipitates and matrix supersaturation, and compared with Umantsev-Olson's (UO) coarsening theory for multicomponent alloys. The coarsening experiments do not agree with the time dependencies prediction of UO theory. The cluster-diffusion-coagulation mechanism is involved in coarsening, as well as evaporation-condenzation mechanism, and is suggested to generate discrepancy between the experiments and theory. The addition of Re reduces the lattices parameter misfit between the matrix and precipitates. Therefore, unlike other Ni-based superalloys, this Ni-Cr-AI-Re alloy does not undergo the sphere-to-cube morphological transition and maintains the spheroidal morphology of the γ' precipitates for extended aging times. In addition, the γ' precipitates do not align along [100] direction, even at the longest aging time of 264 h. Contrary to a commercial superalloy Rene N6, significant Re

  20. A Monte Carlo-adjusted goodness-of-fit test for parametric models describing spatial point patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Dao, Ngocanh

    2014-04-03

    Assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for intricate parametric spatial point process models is important for many application fields. When the probability density of the statistic of the GOF test is intractable, a commonly used procedure is the Monte Carlo GOF test. Additionally, if the data comprise a single dataset, a popular version of the test plugs a parameter estimate in the hypothesized parametric model to generate data for theMonte Carlo GOF test. In this case, the test is invalid because the resulting empirical level does not reach the nominal level. In this article, we propose a method consisting of nested Monte Carlo simulations which has the following advantages: the bias of the resulting empirical level of the test is eliminated, hence the empirical levels can always reach the nominal level, and information about inhomogeneity of the data can be provided.We theoretically justify our testing procedure using Taylor expansions and demonstrate that it is correctly sized through various simulation studies. In our first data application, we discover, in agreement with Illian et al., that Phlebocarya filifolia plants near Perth, Australia, can follow a homogeneous Poisson clustered process that provides insight into the propagation mechanism of these plants. In our second data application, we find, in contrast to Diggle, that a pairwise interaction model provides a good fit to the micro-anatomy data of amacrine cells designed for analyzing the developmental growth of immature retina cells in rabbits. This article has supplementary material online. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  1. Mathematical modeling and experimental validation of Phaeodactylum tricornutum microalgae growth rate with glycerol addition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morais, Keli Cristiane Correia; Ribeiro, Robert Luis Lara; Santos, Kassiana Ribeiro dos; Mariano, Andre Bellin [Mariano Center for Research and Development of Sustainable Energy (NPDEAS), Curitiba, PR (Brazil); Vargas, Jose Viriato Coelho [Departament of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Parana (UFPR) Curitiba, PR (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    The Brazilian National Program for Bio fuel Production has been encouraging diversification of feedstock for biofuel production. One of the most promising alternatives is the use of microalgae biomass for biofuel production. The cultivation of microalgae is conducted in aquatic systems, therefore microalgae oil production does not compete with agricultural land. Microalgae have greater photosynthetic efficiency than higher plants and are efficient fixing CO{sub 2}. The challenge is to reduce production costs, which can be minimized by increasing productivity and oil biomass. Aiming to increase the production of microalgae biomass, mixotrophic cultivation, with the addition of glycerol has been shown to be very promising. During the production of biodiesel from microalgae there is availability of glycerol as a side product of the transesterification reaction, which could be used as organic carbon source for microalgae mixotrophic growth, resulting in increased biomass productivity. In this paper, to study the effect of glycerol in experimental conditions, the batch culture of the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum was performed in a 2-liter flask in a temperature and light intensity controlled room. During 16 days of cultivation, the number of cells per ml was counted periodically in a Neubauer chamber. The calculation of dry biomass in the control experiment (without glycerol) was performed every two days by vacuum filtration. In the dry biomass mixotrophic experiment with glycerol concentration of 1.5 M, the number of cells was assessed similarly in the 10{sup th} and 14{sup th} days of cultivation. Through a volume element methodology, a mathematical model was written to calculate the microalgae growth rate. It was used an equation that describes the influence of irradiation and concentration of nutrients in the growth of microalgae. A simulation time of 16 days was used in the computations, with initial concentration of 0.1 g l{sup -1}. In order to compare

  2. 78 FR 32224 - Availability of Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-29

    ... Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional Discussion Topics in Connect America Cost Model Virtual Workshop AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Proposed rule... America Cost Model (CAM v3.1.2), which allows Commission staff and interested parties to calculate costs...

  3. LSL: a logarithmic least-squares adjustment method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stallmann, F.W.

    1982-01-01

    To meet regulatory requirements, spectral unfolding codes must not only provide reliable estimates for spectral parameters, but must also be able to determine the uncertainties associated with these parameters. The newer codes, which are more appropriately called adjustment codes, use the least squares principle to determine estimates and uncertainties. The principle is simple and straightforward, but there are several different mathematical models to describe the unfolding problem. In addition to a sound mathematical model, ease of use and range of options are important considerations in the construction of adjustment codes. Based on these considerations, a least squares adjustment code for neutron spectrum unfolding has been constructed some time ago and tentatively named LSL

  4. Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, O.

    2017-12-01

    level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

  5. The model of children's social adjustment under the gender-roles absence in single-parent families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-Jun; Zhang, Hailun; Wei, Bingsi; Guo, Zeyao

    2018-01-14

    This study aimed to evaluate the effects of the gender-role types and child-rearing gender-role attitude of the single-parents, as well as their children's gender role traits and family socio-economic status, on social adjustment. We recruited 458 pairs of single parents and their children aged 8-18 by purposive sampling. The research tools included the Family Socio-economic Status Questionnaire, Sex Role Scales, Parental Child-rearing Gender-role Attitude Scale and Social Adjustment Scale. The results indicated: (a) single mothers' and their daughters' feminine traits were both higher than their masculine traits, and sons' masculine traits were higher than their feminine traits; the majority gender-role type of single parents and their children was androgyny; significant differences were found between children's gender-role types depending on different raiser, the proportion of girls' masculine traits raised by single fathers was significantly higher than those who were raised by single mothers; (b) family socio-economic status and single parents' gender-role types positively influenced parental child-rearing gender-role attitude, which in turn, influenced the children's gender traits, and further affected children's social adjustment. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

  6. Additional disinfection with a modified salt solution in a root canal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Waal, Suzette V; Oonk, Charlotte A M; Nieman, Selma H; Wesselink, Paul R; de Soet, Johannes J; Crielaard, Wim

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the disinfecting properties of a modified salt solution (MSS) and calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) in a non-direct-contact ex-vivo model. Seventy-four single-canal roots infected with Enterococcus faecalis were treated with 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) irrigation or with NaOCl irrigation with subsequent dressing with MSS or Ca(OH)2. After removal of the dressings, the roots were filled with bacterial growth medium and incubated for seven days to enable the surviving bacteria to repopulate the root canal lumen. Growth was determined by sampling the root canals with paper points before treatment (S1), after treatment (S2) and incubation after treatment (S3). The colony forming units were counted at S1 and S2. At S3, growth was determined as no/yes regrowth. The Kruskal-Wallis, McNemar and χ(2) test were used for statistical analyses. At S2, in the NaOCl group, growth was found in 5 of 19 root canals. After the removal of MSS or Ca(OH)2 bacteria were retrieved from one root canal in both groups. At S3, repopulation of the root canals had occurred in 14 of 19 roots after sole NaOCl irrigation, 6 of 20 roots after MSS-dressing and in 14 of 20 roots after Ca(OH)2-dressing. MSS was more effective in preventing regrowth than Ca(OH)2 (P=0.009). The modified salt solution prevented regrowth in roots which indicates that it can eliminate persistent bacteria. Dressing the root canals with Ca(OH)2 did not provide additional disinfection after NaOCl irrigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The relation between air pollution and respiratory deaths in Tehran, Iran- using generalized additive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghan, Azizallah; Khanjani, Narges; Bahrampour, Abbas; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Yunesian, Masoud

    2018-03-20

    Some epidemiological evidence has shown a relation between ambient air pollution and adverse health outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of air pollution on mortality from respiratory diseases in Tehran, Iran. In this ecological study, air pollution data was inquired from the Tehran Province Environmental Protection Agency and the Tehran Air Quality Control Company. Meteorological data was collected from the Tehran Meteorology Organization and mortality data from the Tehran Cemetery Mortality Registration. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was used for data analysis with different lags, up to 15 days. A 10-unit increase in all pollutants except CO (1-unit) was used to compute the Relative Risk of deaths. During 2005 until 2014, 37,967 respiratory deaths occurred in Tehran in which 21,913 (57.7%) were male. The strongest relationship between NO 2 and PM 10 and respiratory death was seen on the same day (lag 0), and was respectively (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) and (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.04). O 3 and PM 2.5 had the strongest relationship with respiratory deaths on lag 2 and 1 respectively, and the RR was equal to 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 and 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10 respectively. NO 2 , O 3 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 also showed significant relations with respiratory deaths in the older age groups. The findings of this study showed that O 3 , NO 2 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 air pollutants were related to respiratory deaths in Tehran. Reducing ambient air pollution can save lives in Tehran.

  8. Border tax adjustments for additional costs engendered by internal and EU environmental protection measures. Implementation options and WTO admissibility; Grenzsteuerausgleich fuer Mehrkosten infolge nationaler/europaeischer Umweltschutzinstrumente. Gestaltungsmoeglichkeiten und WTO-rechtliche Zulaessigkeit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilbert, Jacqueline; Berg, Holger (comps.)

    2008-04-15

    At the end of the year 2006, France proposed the introduction of a 'climatic tariff' into the discussion of the international climatic protection. The 'climatic tariff' shall adjust extra costs, which result from the domestic production by means of environmental protection instruments and to which the import goods are not exposed, with import/export compensatory payments in the form of import duties and/or taxes on import goods. The introduction of an import/export compensatory payment system aims to load imported goods equivalent to domestic products in order to adjust competitive disadvantages. In the contribution under consideration the authors report on possibilities and problems of design for an import/export tax compensatory. The authors examine the validity of the measures of import/export compensation from legal view the World Trade Organization (Geneva, Switzerland) based on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

  9. On-board adaptive model for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on Kalman filter with proportional integral-based error adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jingwen; Dong, Guangzhong; Chen, Zonghai

    2017-10-01

    With the rapid development of battery-powered electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle system. In order to provide timely management and protection for battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable battery model and accurate battery parameters estimation to describe battery dynamic behaviors. Therefore, this paper focuses on an on-board adaptive model for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. Firstly, a first-order equivalent circuit battery model is employed to describe battery dynamic characteristics. Then, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide good initial values of model parameters to ensure filter stability and reduce the convergence time. Thirdly, an extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) is applied to on-line estimate battery SOC and model parameters. Considering that the EKF is essentially a first-order Taylor approximation of battery model, which contains inevitable model errors, thus, a proportional integral-based error adjustment technique is employed to improve the performance of EKF method and correct model parameters. Finally, the experimental results on lithium-ion batteries indicate that the proposed EKF with proportional integral-based error adjustment method can provide robust and accurate battery model and on-line parameter estimation.

  10. Development of a three dimensional homogeneous calculation model for the BFS-62 critical experiment. Preparation of adjusted equivalent measured values for sodium void reactivity values. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manturov, G.; Semenov, M.; Seregin, A.; Lykova, L.

    2004-01-01

    The BFS-62 critical experiments are currently used as 'benchmark' for verification of IPPE codes and nuclear data, which have been used in the study of loading a significant amount of Pu in fast reactors. The BFS-62 experiments have been performed at BFS-2 critical facility of IPPE (Obninsk). The experimental program has been arranged in such a way that the effect of replacement of uranium dioxied blanket by the steel reflector as well as the effect of replacing UOX by MOX on the main characteristics of the reactor model was studied. Wide experimental program, including measurements of the criticality-keff, spectral indices, radial and axial fission rate distributions, control rod mock-up worth, sodium void reactivity effect SVRE and some other important nuclear physics parameters, was fulfilled in the core. Series of 4 BFS-62 critical assemblies have been designed for studying the changes in BN-600 reactor physics from existing state to hybrid core. All the assemblies are modeling the reactor state prior to refueling, i.e. with all control rod mock-ups withdrawn from the core. The following items are chosen for the analysis in this report: Description of the critical assembly BFS-62-3A as the 3rd assembly in a series of 4 BFS critical assemblies studying BN-600 reactor with MOX-UOX hybrid zone and steel reflector; Development of a 3D homogeneous calculation model for the BFS-62-3A critical experiment as the mock-up of BN-600 reactor with hybrid zone and steel reflector; Evaluation of measured nuclear physics parameters keff and SVRE (sodium void reactivity effect); Preparation of adjusted equivalent measured values for keff and SVRE. Main series of calculations are performed using 3D HEX-Z diffusion code TRIGEX in 26 groups, with the ABBN-93 cross-section set. In addition, precise calculations are made, in 299 groups and Ps-approximation in scattering, by Monte-Carlo code MMKKENO and discrete ordinate code TWODANT. All calculations are based on the common system

  11. Efficient Semiparametric Marginal Estimation for the Partially Linear Additive Model for Longitudinal/Clustered Data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond; Maity, Arnab; Mammen, Enno; Yu, Kyusang

    2009-01-01

    We consider the efficient estimation of a regression parameter in a partially linear additive nonparametric regression model from repeated measures data when the covariates are multivariate. To date, while there is some literature in the scalar covariate case, the problem has not been addressed in the multivariate additive model case. Ours represents a first contribution in this direction. As part of this work, we first describe the behavior of nonparametric estimators for additive models with repeated measures when the underlying model is not additive. These results are critical when one considers variants of the basic additive model. We apply them to the partially linear additive repeated-measures model, deriving an explicit consistent estimator of the parametric component; if the errors are in addition Gaussian, the estimator is semiparametric efficient. We also apply our basic methods to a unique testing problem that arises in genetic epidemiology; in combination with a projection argument we develop an efficient and easily computed testing scheme. Simulations and an empirical example from nutritional epidemiology illustrate our methods.

  12. Efficient Semiparametric Marginal Estimation for the Partially Linear Additive Model for Longitudinal/Clustered Data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond

    2009-04-23

    We consider the efficient estimation of a regression parameter in a partially linear additive nonparametric regression model from repeated measures data when the covariates are multivariate. To date, while there is some literature in the scalar covariate case, the problem has not been addressed in the multivariate additive model case. Ours represents a first contribution in this direction. As part of this work, we first describe the behavior of nonparametric estimators for additive models with repeated measures when the underlying model is not additive. These results are critical when one considers variants of the basic additive model. We apply them to the partially linear additive repeated-measures model, deriving an explicit consistent estimator of the parametric component; if the errors are in addition Gaussian, the estimator is semiparametric efficient. We also apply our basic methods to a unique testing problem that arises in genetic epidemiology; in combination with a projection argument we develop an efficient and easily computed testing scheme. Simulations and an empirical example from nutritional epidemiology illustrate our methods.

  13. Modeling and identification for the adjustable control of generation processes; Modelado e identificacion para el control autoajustable de procesos de generacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricano Castillo, Juan Manuel; Palomares Gonzalez, Daniel [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1990-12-31

    The recursive technique of the method of minimum squares is employed to obtain a multivariable model of the self regressive mobile mean type, needed for the design of a multivariable, self-adjustable controller self adjustable multivariable. In this article the employed technique and the results obtained are described with the characterization of the model structure and the parametric estimation. The convergency velocity curves are observed towards the parameters` numerical values. [Espanol] La tecnica recursiva del metodo de los minimos cuadrados se emplea para obtener un modelo multivariable de tipo autorregresivo de promedio movil, necesario para el diseno de un controlador autoajustable muitivariable. En el articulo, se describe la tecnica empleada y los resultados obtenidos con la caracterizacion de la estructura del modelo y la estimacion parametrica. Se observan las curvas de la velocidad de convergencia hacia los valores numericos de los parametros.

  14. Modeling and identification for the adjustable control of generation processes; Modelado e identificacion para el control autoajustable de procesos de generacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricano Castillo, Juan Manuel; Palomares Gonzalez, Daniel [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1989-12-31

    The recursive technique of the method of minimum squares is employed to obtain a multivariable model of the self regressive mobile mean type, needed for the design of a multivariable, self-adjustable controller self adjustable multivariable. In this article the employed technique and the results obtained are described with the characterization of the model structure and the parametric estimation. The convergency velocity curves are observed towards the parameters` numerical values. [Espanol] La tecnica recursiva del metodo de los minimos cuadrados se emplea para obtener un modelo multivariable de tipo autorregresivo de promedio movil, necesario para el diseno de un controlador autoajustable muitivariable. En el articulo, se describe la tecnica empleada y los resultados obtenidos con la caracterizacion de la estructura del modelo y la estimacion parametrica. Se observan las curvas de la velocidad de convergencia hacia los valores numericos de los parametros.

  15. A complete generalized adjustment criterion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perković, Emilija; Textor, Johannes; Kalisch, Markus; Maathuis, Marloes H.

    2015-01-01

    Covariate adjustment is a widely used approach to estimate total causal effects from observational data. Several graphical criteria have been developed in recent years to identify valid covariates for adjustment from graphical causal models. These criteria can handle multiple causes, latent

  16. MODELING OF THE HEAT PUMP STATION ADJUSTABLE LOOP OF AN INTERMEDIATE HEAT-TRANSFER AGENT (Part I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sit B.

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available There are examined equations of dynamics and statics of an adjustable intermediate loop of heat pump carbon dioxide station in this paper. Heat pump station is a part of the combined heat supply system. Control of transferred thermal capacity from the source of low potential heat source is realized by means of changing the speed of circulation of a liquid in the loop and changing the area of a heat-transmitting surface, both in the evaporator, and in the intermediate heat exchanger depending on the operating parameter, for example, external air temperature and wind speed.

  17. Suitability of a three-dimensional model to measure empathy and its relationship with social and normative adjustment in Spanish adolescents: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-López, Mauricio; Gómez-Ortiz, Olga; Ortega-Ruiz, Rosario; Jolliffe, Darrick; Romera, Eva M

    2017-09-25

    (1) To examine the psychometric properties of the Basic Empathy Scale (BES) with Spanish adolescents, comparing a two and a three-dimensional structure;(2) To analyse the relationship between the three-dimensional empathy and social and normative adjustment in school. Transversal and ex post facto retrospective study. Confirmatory factorial analysis, multifactorial invariance analysis and structural equations models were used. 747 students (51.3% girls) from Cordoba, Spain, aged 12-17 years (M=13.8; SD=1.21). The original two-dimensional structure was confirmed (cognitive empathy, affective empathy), but a three-dimensional structure showed better psychometric properties, highlighting the good fit found in confirmatory factorial analysis and adequate internal consistent valued, measured with Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega. Composite reliability and average variance extracted showed better indices for a three-factor model. The research also showed evidence of measurement invariance across gender. All the factors of the final three-dimensional BES model were direct and significantly associated with social and normative adjustment, being most strongly related to cognitive empathy. This research supports the advances in neuroscience, developmental psychology and psychopathology through a three-dimensional version of the BES, which represents an improvement in the original two-factorial model. The organisation of empathy in three factors benefits the understanding of social and normative adjustment in adolescents, in which emotional disengagement favours adjusted peer relationships. Psychoeducational interventions aimed at improving the quality of social life in schools should target these components of empathy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. An Evaluation of the Adjusted DeLone and McLean Model of Information Systems Success; the case of financial information system in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Lagzian; Shamsoddin Nazemi; Fatemeh Dadmand

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the success of information systems within organizations has been identified as one of the most critical subjects of information system management in both public and private organizations. It is therefore important to measure the success of information systems from the user's perspective. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the degree of information system success by the adjusted DeLone and McLean’s model in the field financial information system (FIS) in an Iranian Univ...

  19. Modeling of On-Line Catalyst Addition Effects in a Short Contact Time Reactor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zerkle, David K; Allendorf, Mark Donald; Wolf, Markus; Deutschmann, Olaf

    2000-01-01

    ... operating ( on-line catalyst addition). Our simulations indicate that the fundamental behavior of the ethane SCTR prepared with catalyst added online is the result of coupled heterogeneous and homogeneous chemical processes...

  20. Modeling the Use of Sulfate Additives for Potassium Chloride Destruction in Biomass Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Hao; Pedersen, Morten Nedergaard; Jespersen, Jacob Boll

    2014-01-01

    Potassium chloride, KCl, formed from biomass combustion may lead to ash deposition and corrosion problems in boilers. Sulfates are effective additives for converting KCl to the less harmful K2SO4 and HCl. In the present study, the rate constants for decomposition of ammonium sulfate and aluminum...... sulfate were obtained from experiments in a fast heating rate thermogravimetric analyzer. The yields of SO2 and SO3 from the decomposition were investigated in a tube reactor at 600–900 °C, revealing a constant distribution of about 15% SO2 and 85% SO3 from aluminum sulfate decomposition and a temperature...... fluidized-bed reactor using ammonium sulfate, aluminum sulfate, and ferric sulfate as additives. The simulation results for ammonium sulfate and ferric sulfate addition compared favorably to the experiments. The predictions for aluminum sulfate addition were only partly in agreement with the experimental...

  1. Modeling of Microstructure Formation in Additively Manufactured IN718 with Emphasis on Porosity Prediction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Additive manufacturing of metal parts is experiencing strong growth as powder bed machines in particular become more widely available. Although parts are being...

  2. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  3. The importance of extent of choroid plexus cauterization in addition to endoscopic third ventriculostomy for infantile hydrocephalus: a retrospective North American observational study using propensity score-adjusted analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah, Aria; Weil, Alexander G; Juraschka, Kyle; Ibrahim, George M; Wang, Anthony C; Crevier, Louis; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Ragheb, John; Bhatia, Sanjiv

    2017-12-01

    OBJECTIVE Combined endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETC) and choroid plexus cauterization (CPC)-ETV/CPC- is being investigated to increase the rate of shunt independence in infants with hydrocephalus. The degree of CPC necessary to achieve improved rates of shunt independence is currently unknown. METHODS Using data from a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study involving patients who underwent ETV/CPC for treatment of infantile hydrocephalus, comparative statistical analyses were performed to detect a difference in need for subsequent CSF diversion procedure in patients undergoing partial CPC (describes unilateral CPC or bilateral CPC that only extended from the foramen of Monro [FM] to the atrium on one side) or subtotal CPC (describes CPC extending from the FM to the posterior temporal horn bilaterally) using a rigid neuroendoscope. Propensity scores for extent of CPC were calculated using age and etiology. Propensity scores were used to perform 1) case-matching comparisons and 2) Cox multivariable regression, adjusting for propensity score in the unmatched cohort. Cox multivariable regression adjusting for age and etiology, but not propensity score was also performed as a third statistical technique. RESULTS Eighty-four patients who underwent ETV/CPC had sufficient data to be included in the analysis. Subtotal CPC was performed in 58 patients (69%) and partial CPC in 26 (31%). The ETV/CPC success rates at 6 and 12 months, respectively, were 49% and 41% for patients undergoing subtotal CPC and 35% and 31% for those undergoing partial CPC. Cox multivariate regression in a 48-patient cohort case-matched by propensity score demonstrated no added effect of increased extent of CPC on ETV/CPC survival (HR 0.868, 95% CI 0.422-1.789, p = 0.702). Cox multivariate regression including all patients, with adjustment for propensity score, demonstrated no effect of extent of CPC on ETV/CPC survival (HR 0.845, 95% CI 0.462-1.548, p = 0.586). Cox multivariate

  4. Positioning and number of nutritional levels in dose-response trials to estimate the optimal-level and the adjustment of the models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Augusto de Souza

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to evaluate the influence of the number and position of nutrient levels used in dose-response trials in the estimation of the optimal-level (OL and the goodness of fit on the models: quadratic polynomial (QP, exponential (EXP, linear response plateau (LRP and quadratic response plateau (QRP. It was used data from dose-response trials realized in FCAV-Unesp Jaboticabal considering the homogeneity of variances and normal distribution. The fit of the models were evaluated considered the following statistics: adjusted coefficient of determination (R²adj, coefficient of variation (CV and the sum of the squares of deviations (SSD.It was verified in QP and EXP models that small changes on the placement and distribution of the levels caused great changes in the estimation of the OL. The LRP model was deeply influenced by the absence or presence of the level between the response and stabilization phases (change in the straight to plateau. The QRP needed more levels on the response phase and the last level on stabilization phase to estimate correctly the plateau. It was concluded that the OL and the adjust of the models are dependent on the positioning and the number of the levels and the specific characteristics of each model, but levels defined near to the true requirement and not so spaced are better to estimate the OL.

  5. A Novel Design for Adjustable Stiffness Artificial Tendon for the Ankle Joint of a Bipedal Robot: Modeling & Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiman Omer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bipedal humanoid robots are expected to play a major role in the future. Performing bipedal locomotion requires high energy due to the high torque that needs to be provided by its legs’ joints. Taking the WABIAN-2R as an example, it uses harmonic gears in its joint to increase the torque. However, using such a mechanism increases the weight of the legs and therefore increases energy consumption. Therefore, the idea of developing a mechanism with adjustable stiffness to be connected to the leg joint is introduced here. The proposed mechanism would have the ability to provide passive and active motion. The mechanism would be attached to the ankle pitch joint as an artificial tendon. Using computer simulations, the dynamical performance of the mechanism is analytically evaluated.

  6. Fine-mapping additive and dominant SNP effects using group-LASSO and Fractional Resample Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabourin, Jeremy; Nobel, Andrew B.; Valdar, William

    2014-01-01

    Genomewide association studies sometimes identify loci at which both the number and identities of the underlying causal variants are ambiguous. In such cases, statistical methods that model effects of multiple SNPs simultaneously can help disentangle the observed patterns of association and provide information about how those SNPs could be prioritized for follow-up studies. Current multi-SNP methods, however, tend to assume that SNP effects are well captured by additive genetics; yet when genetic dominance is present, this assumption translates to reduced power and faulty prioritizations. We describe a statistical procedure for prioritizing SNPs at GWAS loci that efficiently models both additive and dominance effects. Our method, LLARRMA-dawg, combines a group LASSO procedure for sparse modeling of multiple SNP effects with a resampling procedure based on fractional observation weights; it estimates for each SNP the robustness of association with the phenotype both to sampling variation and to competing explanations from other SNPs. In producing a SNP prioritization that best identifies underlying true signals, we show that: our method easily outperforms a single marker analysis; when additive-only signals are present, our joint model for additive and dominance is equivalent to or only slightly less powerful than modeling additive-only effects; and, when dominance signals are present, even in combination with substantial additive effects, our joint model is unequivocally more powerful than a model assuming additivity. We also describe how performance can be improved through calibrated randomized penalization, and discuss how dominance in ungenotyped SNPs can be incorporated through either heterozygote dosage or multiple imputation. PMID:25417853

  7. Numerical modeling of the strand deposition flow in extrusion-based additive manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Comminal, Raphaël; Serdeczny, Marcin P.; Pedersen, David B.

    2018-01-01

    -based additive manufacturing, as well as the surface roughness of the fabricated part. Under the assumptions of an isothermal Newtonian fluid and a creeping laminar flow, the deposition flow is controlled by two parameters: the gap distance between the extrusion nozzle and the substrate, and the velocity ratio...

  8. In-line monitoring and reverse 3D model reconstruction in additive manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Bue; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Nielsen, Jakob Skov

    2010-01-01

    Additive manufacturing allows for close-to unrestrained geometrical freedom in part design. The ability to manufacture geometries of such complexity is however limited by the fact that it proves difficult to verify tolerances of these parts. Tolerancs of featuress that are inaccessible...

  9. Mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates: Shock tube ignition delay time measurements and chemical kinetic modeling

    KAUST Repository

    AlRamadan, Abdullah S.; Badra, Jihad; Javed, Tamour; Alabbad, Mohammed; Bokhumseen, Nehal; Gaillard, Patrick; Babiker, Hassan; Farooq, Aamir; Sarathy, Mani

    2015-01-01

    work, the effect of mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates has been investigated in a high-pressure shock tube facility. The ignition delay times of mixed butanols stoichiometric mixtures were measured at 20 and 40bar over a temperature range

  10. Modelling of flame propagation in the gasoline fuelled Wankel rotary engine with hydrogen additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedyanov, E. A.; Zakharov, E. A.; Prikhodkov, K. V.; Levin, Y. V.

    2017-02-01

    Recently, hydrogen has been considered as an alternative fuel for a vehicles power unit. The Wankel engine is the most suitable to be adapted to hydrogen feeding. A hydrogen additive helps to decrease incompleteness of combustion in the volumes near the apex of the rotor. Results of theoretical researches of the hydrogen additives influence on the flame propagation in the combustion chamber of the Wankel rotary engine are presented. The theoretical research shows that the blend of 70% gasoline with 30% hydrogen could accomplish combustion near the T-apex in the stoichiometric mixture and in lean one. Maps of the flame front location versus the angle of rotor rotation and hydrogen fraction are obtained. Relations of a minimum required amount of hydrogen addition versus the engine speed are shown on the engine modes close to the average city driving cycle. The amount of hydrogen addition that could be injected by the nozzle with different flow sections is calculated in order to analyze the capacity of the feed system.

  11. The rise and fall of divorce - a sociological adjustment of becker’s model of the marriage market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Hald; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    Despite the strong and persistent influence of Gary Becker’s marriage model, the model does not completely explain the observed correlation between married women’s labor market participation and overall divorce rates. In this paper we show how a simple sociologically inspired extension of the model...

  12. Adolescents of the U.S. National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study: male role models, gender role traits, and psychological adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, H.; Goldberg, N.; van Gelderen, L.; Gartrell, N.

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the influence of male role models on the lives of adolescents (N = 78) in the U.S. National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study. Half of the adolescents had male role models; those with and those without male role models had similar scores on the feminine and masculine scales

  13. Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mikis Stasinopoulos

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available GAMLSS is a general framework for fitting regression type models where the distribution of the response variable does not have to belong to the exponential family and includes highly skew and kurtotic continuous and discrete distribution. GAMLSS allows all the parameters of the distribution of the response variable to be modelled as linear/non-linear or smooth functions of the explanatory variables. This paper starts by defining the statistical framework of GAMLSS, then describes the current implementation of GAMLSS in R and finally gives four different data examples to demonstrate how GAMLSS can be used for statistical modelling.

  14. Additive effects of dietary glycotoxins and androgen excess on the kidney of a female rat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sotiria Palimeri

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: The above mentioned data suggest that dietary glycotoxins, in combination with increased androgen exposure, exert a more profound negative impact on the kidney of an androgenized female rat model that mimics the metabolic characteristics of polycystic ovary syndrome.

  15. Benefits of Dominance over Additive Models for the Estimation of Average Effects in the Presence of Dominance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Duenk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A model, or an additive plus dominance (AD model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and identically distributed. Our objective was to investigate the accuracy of an estimated average effect (α^ in the presence of dominance, using either a single locus A-model or AD-model. Estimation was based on a finite sample from a large population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE, and the root mean squared error of α^ was calculated for several broad-sense heritabilities, sample sizes, and sizes of the dominance effect. Results show that with the A-model, both sampling deviations of genotype frequencies from HWE frequencies and sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error. With the AD-model, only sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error, provided that all three genotype classes were sampled. In the presence of dominance, the root mean squared error of α^ with the AD-model was always smaller than with the A-model, even when the heritability was less than one. Remarkably, in the absence of dominance, there was no disadvantage of fitting dominance. In conclusion, the AD-model yields more accurate estimates of average effects from a finite sample, because it is more robust against sampling deviations from HWE frequencies than the A-model. Genetic models that include dominance, therefore, yield higher accuracies of estimated average effects than purely additive models when dominance is present.

  16. Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) in R

    OpenAIRE

    D. Mikis Stasinopoulos; Robert A. Rigby

    2007-01-01

    GAMLSS is a general framework for fitting regression type models where the distribution of the response variable does not have to belong to the exponential family and includes highly skew and kurtotic continuous and discrete distribution. GAMLSS allows all the parameters of the distribution of the response variable to be modelled as linear/non-linear or smooth functions of the explanatory variables. This paper starts by defining the statistical framework of GAMLSS, then describes the curren...

  17. Data-Driven Modeling for Minimizing the Side-Channel Information Leakage in Additive Manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    Faezi, Sina

    2017-01-01

    Cyber-physical additive manufacturing systems consists of tight integration of cyber and physical domains. This results in new cross-domain vulnerabilities that poses unique security challenges. One of the challenges is preventing confidentiality breach due to physical-to-cyber domain attacks, where attackers can use physical analog emissions to steal the cyber-domain information. This information theft is based on the idea that an attacker can accurately estimate the relation between the ana...

  18. Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aschengrau Ann

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. Methods We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. Results Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. Discussion Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure

  19. Experiments to Populate and Validate a Processing Model for Polyurethane Foam: Additional Data for Structural Foams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, Rekha R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Celina, Mathias C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Giron, Nicholas Henry [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Long, Kevin Nicholas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Russick, Edward M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    We are developing computational models to help understand manufacturing processes, final properties and aging of structural foam, polyurethane PMDI. Th e resulting model predictions of density and cure gradients from the manufacturing process will be used as input to foam heat transfer and mechanical models. BKC 44306 PMDI-10 and BKC 44307 PMDI-18 are the most prevalent foams used in structural parts. Experiments needed to parameterize models of the reaction kinetics and the equations of motion during the foam blowing stages were described for BKC 44306 PMDI-10 in the first of this report series (Mondy et al. 2014). BKC 44307 PMDI-18 is a new foam that will be used to make relatively dense structural supports via over packing. It uses a different catalyst than those in the BKC 44306 family of foams; hence, we expect that the reaction kineti cs models must be modified. Here we detail the experiments needed to characteriz e the reaction kinetics of BKC 44307 PMDI-18 and suggest parameters for the model based on these experiments. In additi on, the second part of this report describes data taken to provide input to the preliminary nonlinear visco elastic structural response model developed for BKC 44306 PMDI-10 foam. We show that the standard cu re schedule used by KCP does not fully cure the material, and, upon temperature elevation above 150°C, oxidation or decomposition reactions occur that alter the composition of the foam. These findings suggest that achieving a fully cured foam part with this formulation may be not be possible through therma l curing. As such, visco elastic characterization procedures developed for curing thermosets can provide only approximate material properties, since the state of the material continuously evolves during tests.

  20. The biobehavioral family model: testing social support as an additional exogenous variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Sarah B; Priest, Jacob B; Roush, Tara

    2014-12-01

    This study tests the inclusion of social support as a distinct exogenous variable in the Biobehavioral Family Model (BBFM). The BBFM is a biopsychosocial approach to health that proposes that biobehavioral reactivity (anxiety and depression) mediates the relationship between family emotional climate and disease activity. Data for this study included married, English-speaking adult participants (n = 1,321; 55% female; M age = 45.2 years) from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication, a nationally representative epidemiological study of the frequency of mental disorders in the United States. Participants reported their demographics, marital functioning, social support from friends and relatives, anxiety and depression (biobehavioral reactivity), number of chronic health conditions, and number of prescription medications. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the items used in the measures of negative marital interactions, social support, and biobehavioral reactivity, as well as the use of negative marital interactions, friends' social support, and relatives' social support as distinct factors in the model. Structural equation modeling indicated a good fit of the data to the hypothesized model (χ(2)  = 846.04, p = .000, SRMR = .039, CFI = .924, TLI = .914, RMSEA = .043). Negative marital interactions predicted biobehavioral reactivity (β = .38, p social support, inversely (β = -.16, p social support as a predicting factor in the model. © 2014 Family Process Institute.

  1. On the possibility of calibrating urban storm-water drainage models using gauge-based adjusted radar rainfall estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Ochoa-Rodriguez, S; Wang, L; Simoes, N; Onof, C; Maksimovi?, ?

    2013-01-01

    24/07/14 meb. Authors did not sign CTA. Traditionally, urban storm water drainage models have been calibrated using only raingauge data, which may result in overly conservative models due to the lack of spatial description of rainfall. With the advent of weather radars, radar rainfall estimates with higher temporal and spatial resolution have become increasingly available and have started to be used operationally for urban storm water model calibration and real time operation. Nonetheless,...

  2. Strengthen forensic entomology in court--the need for data exploration and the validation of a generalised additive mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baqué, Michèle; Amendt, Jens

    2013-01-01

    Developmental data of juvenile blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are typically used to calculate the age of immature stages found on or around a corpse and thus to estimate a minimum post-mortem interval (PMI(min)). However, many of those data sets don't take into account that immature blow flies grow in a non-linear fashion. Linear models do not supply a sufficient reliability on age estimates and may even lead to an erroneous determination of the PMI(min). According to the Daubert standard and the need for improvements in forensic science, new statistic tools like smoothing methods and mixed models allow the modelling of non-linear relationships and expand the field of statistical analyses. The present study introduces into the background and application of these statistical techniques by analysing a model which describes the development of the forensically important blow fly Calliphora vicina at different temperatures. The comparison of three statistical methods (linear regression, generalised additive modelling and generalised additive mixed modelling) clearly demonstrates that only the latter provided regression parameters that reflect the data adequately. We focus explicitly on both the exploration of the data--to assure their quality and to show the importance of checking it carefully prior to conducting the statistical tests--and the validation of the resulting models. Hence, we present a common method for evaluating and testing forensic entomological data sets by using for the first time generalised additive mixed models.

  3. Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Reto; Mayr, Georg J; Messner, Jakob W; Umlauf, Nikolaus; Zeileis, Achim

    2017-06-15

    Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.

  4. Finite element modeling of deposition of ceramic material during SLM additive manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A three dimensional model for material deposition in Selective Laser Melting (SLM with application to Al2O3-ZrO2 eutectic ceramic is presented. As the material is transparent to laser, dopants are added to increase the heat absorption efficiency. Based on Beer-Lambert law, a volumetric heat source model taking into account the material absorption is derived. The Level Set method with multiphase homogenization is used to track the shape of deposed bead and the thermodynamic is coupled to calculate the melting-solidification path. The shrinkage during consolidation from powder to compact medium is modeled by a compressible Newtonian constitutive law. A semi-implicit formulation of surface tension is used, which permits a stable resolution to capture the gas-liquid interface. The formation of droplets is obtained and slight waves of melt pool are observed. The influence of different process parameters on temperature distribution, melt pool profiles and bead shapes is discussed.

  5. [Effects in the adherence treatment and psychological adjustment after the disclosure of HIV/AIDS diagnosis with the "DIRE" clinical model in Colombian children under 17].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trejos, Ana María; Reyes, Lizeth; Bahamon, Marly Johana; Alarcón, Yolima; Gaviria, Gladys

    2015-08-01

    A study in five Colombian cities in 2006, confirms the findings of other international studies: the majority of HIV-positive children not know their diagnosis, caregivers are reluctant to give this information because they believe that the news will cause emotional distress to the child becoming primary purpose of this study to validate a model of revelation. We implemented a clinical model, referred to as: "DIRE" that hypothetically had normalizing effects on psychological adjustment and adherence to antiretroviral treatment of HIV seropositive children, using a quasi-experimental design. Test were administered (questionnaire to assess patterns of disclosure and non-disclosure of the diagnosis of VIH/SIDA on children in health professionals and participants caregivers, Family Apgar, EuroQol EQ- 5D, MOS Social Support Survey Questionnaire Information treatment for VIH/SIDA and child Symptom Checklist CBCL/6-18 adapted to Latinos) before and after implementation of the model to 31 children (n: 31), 30 caregivers (n: 30) and 41 health professionals. Data processing was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Science version 21 by applying parametric tests (Friedman) and nonparametric (t Student). No significant differences in adherence to treatment (p=0.392), in the psychological adjustment were found positive significant differences at follow-ups compared to baseline 2 weeks (p: 0.001), 3 months (p: 0.000) and 6 months (p: 0.000). The clinical model demonstrated effectiveness in normalizing of psychological adjustment and maintaining treatment compliance. The process also generated confidence in caregivers and health professionals in this difficult task.

  6. Adjust of the residuals of the Arima model by means of the analysis of the residuals of the explanatory variables by means of the analysis of main components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Montealegre Bocanegra, Jose Edgar

    2000-01-01

    Based on the previous knowledge and understanding of the causality relationships between the fields of surface temperature of the Pacific and North and South tropical Atlantic oceans and rainfall behaviour in Colombia, we purport to model those relations with a (statistical) transfer model. This work is aimed at improving the adjustment of the model for the monthly mean rainfall registered in Funza (nearby the Capital Bogota). The residues of ARIMA models with six explanatory variables may contribute some percentage to the explanation of the total variability of rainfall as a consequence of their interrelationship. Such effect can be represented as a summary of the six variables, which can be achieved with principal components, taking into account that they are not mutually dependent, since they are white noise time series

  7. A class frequency mixture model that adjusts for site-specific amino acid frequencies and improves inference of protein phylogeny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Karen

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Widely used substitution models for proteins, such as the Jones-Taylor-Thornton (JTT or Whelan and Goldman (WAG models, are based on empirical amino acid interchange matrices estimated from databases of protein alignments that incorporate the average amino acid frequencies of the data set under examination (e.g JTT + F. Variation in the evolutionary process between sites is typically modelled by a rates-across-sites distribution such as the gamma (Γ distribution. However, sites in proteins also vary in the kinds of amino acid interchanges that are favoured, a feature that is ignored by standard empirical substitution matrices. Here we examine the degree to which the pattern of evolution at sites differs from that expected based on empirical amino acid substitution models and evaluate the impact of these deviations on phylogenetic estimation. Results We analyzed 21 large protein alignments with two statistical tests designed to detect deviation of site-specific amino acid distributions from data simulated under the standard empirical substitution model: JTT+ F + Γ. We found that the number of states at a given site is, on average, smaller and the frequencies of these states are less uniform than expected based on a JTT + F + Γ substitution model. With a four-taxon example, we show that phylogenetic estimation under the JTT + F + Γ model is seriously biased by a long-branch attraction artefact if the data are simulated under a model utilizing the observed site-specific amino acid frequencies from an alignment. Principal components analyses indicate the existence of at least four major site-specific frequency classes in these 21 protein alignments. Using a mixture model with these four separate classes of site-specific state frequencies plus a fifth class of global frequencies (the JTT + cF + Γ model, significant improvements in model fit for real data sets can be achieved. This simple mixture model also reduces the long

  8. Efectivity of Additive Spline for Partial Least Square Method in Regression Model Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Bilfarsah

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Additive Spline of Partial Least Square method (ASPL as one generalization of Partial Least Square (PLS method. ASPLS method can be acommodation to non linear and multicollinearity case of predictor variables. As a principle, The ASPLS method approach is cahracterized by two idea. The first is to used parametric transformations of predictors by spline function; the second is to make ASPLS components mutually uncorrelated, to preserve properties of the linear PLS components. The performance of ASPLS compared with other PLS method is illustrated with the fisher economic application especially the tuna fish production.

  9. Differences among skeletal muscle mass indices derived from height-, weight-, and body mass index-adjusted models in assessing sarcopenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyoung Min; Jang, Hak Chul; Lim, Soo

    2016-01-01

    Aging processes are inevitably accompanied by structural and functional changes in vital organs. Skeletal muscle, which accounts for 40% of total body weight, deteriorates quantitatively and qualitatively with aging. Skeletal muscle is known to play diverse crucial physical and metabolic roles in humans. Sarcopenia is a condition characterized by significant loss of muscle mass and strength. It is related to subsequent frailty and instability in the elderly population. Because muscle tissue is involved in multiple functions, sarcopenia is closely related to various adverse health outcomes. Along with increasing recognition of the clinical importance of sarcopenia, several international study groups have recently released their consensus on the definition and diagnosis of sarcopenia. In practical terms, various skeletal muscle mass indices have been suggested for assessing sarcopenia: appendicular skeletal muscle mass adjusted for height squared, weight, or body mass index. A different prevalence and different clinical implications of sarcopenia are highlighted by each definition. The discordances among these indices have emerged as an issue in defining sarcopenia, and a unifying definition for sarcopenia has not yet been attained. This review aims to compare these three operational definitions and to introduce an optimal skeletal muscle mass index that reflects the clinical implications of sarcopenia from a metabolic perspective. PMID:27334763

  10. Realistic PIC modelling of laser-plasma interaction: a direct implicit method with adjustable damping and high order weight functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drouin, M.

    2009-11-01

    This research thesis proposes a new formulation of the relativistic implicit direct method, based on the weak formulation of the wave equation which is solved by means of a Newton algorithm. The first part of this thesis deals with the properties of the explicit particle-in-cell (PIC) methods: properties and limitations of an explicit PIC code, linear analysis of a numerical plasma, numerical heating phenomenon, interest of a higher order interpolation function, and presentation of two applications in high density relativistic laser-plasma interaction. The second and main part of this report deals with adapting the direct implicit method to laser-plasma interaction: presentation of the state of the art, formulating of the direct implicit method, resolution of the wave equation. The third part concerns various numerical and physical validations of the ELIXIRS code: case of laser wave propagation in vacuum, demonstration of the adjustable damping which is a characteristic of the proposed algorithm, influence of space-time discretization on energy conservation, expansion of a thermal plasma in vacuum, two cases of plasma-beam unsteadiness in relativistic regime, and then a case of the overcritical laser-plasma interaction

  11. Multivariate Models of Parent-Late Adolescent Gender Dyads: The Importance of Parenting Processes in Predicting Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Cliff; Renk, Kimberly

    2008-01-01

    Although parent-adolescent interactions have been examined, relevant variables have not been integrated into a multivariate model. As a result, this study examined a multivariate model of parent-late adolescent gender dyads in an attempt to capture important predictors in late adolescents' important and unique transition to adulthood. The sample…

  12. Additive gamma frailty models with applications to competing risks in related individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological studies of related individuals are often complicated by the fact that follow-up on the event type of interest is incomplete due to the occurrence of other events. We suggest a class of frailty models with cause-specific hazards for correlated competing events in related individual...

  13. PULSE: Integrated Parametric Modeling for a Shading System : From Daylight Optimization to Additive Manufacturing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teeling, M.V.M.T.; Turrin, M.; de Ruiter, P.; Turrin, Michela; Peters, Brady; O'Brien, William; Stouffs, Rudi; Dogan, Timur

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a parametric approach to an integrated and performance-oriented design, from the conceptual design phase towards materialization. The novelty occurs in the use of parametric models as a way of integrating multidisciplinary design constraints, from daylight optimization to the

  14. An estimating equation for parametric shared frailty models with marginal additive hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pipper, Christian Bressen; Martinussen, Torben

    2004-01-01

    Multivariate failure time data arise when data consist of clusters in which the failure times may be dependent. A popular approach to such data is the marginal proportional hazards model with estimation under the working independence assumption. In some contexts, however, it may be more reasonable...

  15. Validation of the internalization of the Model Minority Myth Measure (IM-4) and its link to academic performance and psychological adjustment among Asian American adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Hyung Chol; Miller, Matthew J; Yip, Pansy

    2015-04-01

    There is limited research examining psychological correlates of a uniquely racialized experience of the model minority stereotype faced by Asian Americans. The present study examined the factor structure and fit of the only published measure of the internalization of the model minority myth, the Internalization of the Model Minority Myth Measure (IM-4; Yoo et al., 2010), with a sample of 155 Asian American high school adolescents. We also examined the link between internalization of the model minority myth types (i.e., myth associated with achievement and myth associated with unrestricted mobility) and psychological adjustment (i.e., affective distress, somatic distress, performance difficulty, academic expectations stress), and the potential moderating effect of academic performance (cumulative grade point average). Results suggested the 2-factor model of the IM-4 had an acceptable fit to the data and supported the factor structure using confirmatory factor analyses. Internalizing the model minority myth of achievement related positively to academic expectations stress; however, internalizing the model minority myth of unrestricted mobility related negatively to academic expectations stress, both controlling for gender and academic performance. Finally, academic performance moderated the model minority myth associated with unrestricted mobility and affective distress link and the model minority myth associated with achievement and performance difficulty link. These findings highlight the complex ways in which the model minority myth relates to psychological outcomes. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. How additive noise generates a phantom attractor in a model with cubic nonlinearity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev, E-mail: lev.ryashko@urfu.ru

    2016-10-07

    Two-dimensional nonlinear system forced by the additive noise is studied. We show that an increasing noise shifts random states and localizes them in a zone far from deterministic attractors. This phenomenon of the generation of the new “phantom” attractor is investigated on the base of probability density functions, mean values and variances of random states. We show that increasing noise results in the qualitative changes of the form of pdf, sharp shifts of mean values, and spikes of the variance. To clarify this phenomenon mathematically, we use the fast–slow decomposition and averaging over the fast variable. For the dynamics of the mean value of the slow variable, a deterministic equation is derived. It is shown that equilibria and the saddle-node bifurcation point of this deterministic equation well describe the stochastic phenomenon of “phantom” attractor in the initial two-dimensional stochastic system. - Highlights: • Two-dimensional nonlinear system with cubic nonlinearity is studied. • Additive noise generates a new phantom attractor. • By averaging over the fast variable one-dimensional equation is derived. • Phantom attractor appearance is analyzed by bifurcation analysis of this equation.

  17. Modeled heating and surface erosion comparing motile (gas borne) and stationary (surface coating) inert particle additives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckingham, A.C.; Siekhaus, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    The unsteady, non-similar, chemically reactive, turbulent boundary layer equations are modified for gas plus dispersed solid particle mixtures, for gas phase turbulent combustion reactions and for heterogeneous gas-solid surface erosive reactions. The exterior (ballistic core) edge boundary conditions for the solutions are modified to include dispersed particle influences on core propellant combustion-generated turbulence levels, combustion reactants and products, and reaction-induced, non-isentropic mixture states. The wall surface (in this study it is always steel) is considered either bare or coated with a fixed particle coating which is conceptually non-reactive, insulative, and non-ablative. Two families of solutions are compared. These correspond to: (1) consideration of gas-borne, free-slip, almost spontaneously mobile (motile) solid particle additives which influence the turbulent heat transfer at the uncoated steel surface and, in contrast, (2) consideration of particle-free, gas phase turbulent heat transfer to the insulated surface coated by stationary particles. Significant differences in erosive heat transfer are found in comparing the two families of solutions over a substantial range of interior ballistic flow conditions. The most effective influences on reducing erosive heat transfer appear to favor mobile, gas-borne particle additives

  18. Addition of host genetic variants in a prediction rule for post meningitis hearing loss in childhood: a model updating study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Marieke S; de Jonge, Rogier C J; Terwee, Caroline B; Heymans, Martijn W; Koomen, Irene; Ouburg, Sander; Spanjaard, Lodewijk; Morré, Servaas A; van Furth, A Marceline

    2013-07-23

    Sensorineural hearing loss is the most common sequela in survivors of bacterial meningitis (BM). In the past we developed a validated prediction model to identify children at risk for post-meningitis hearing loss. It is known that host genetic variations, besides clinical factors, contribute to severity and outcome of BM. In this study it was determined whether host genetic risk factors improve the predictive abilities of an existing model regarding hearing loss after childhood BM. Four hundred and seventy-one Dutch Caucasian childhood BM were genotyped for 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in seven different genes involved in pathogen recognition. Genetic data were added to the original clinical prediction model and performance of new models was compared to the original model by likelihood ratio tests and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves. Addition of TLR9-1237 SNPs and the combination of TLR2 + 2477 and TLR4 + 896 SNPs improved the clinical prediction model, but not significantly (increase of AUC's from 0.856 to 0.861 and from 0.856 to 0.875 (p = 0.570 and 0.335, respectively). Other SNPs analysed were not linked to hearing loss. Although addition of genetic risk factors did not significantly improve the clinical prediction model for post-meningitis hearing loss, AUC's of the pre-existing model remain high after addition of genetic factors. Future studies should evaluate whether more combinations of SNPs in larger cohorts has an additional value to the existing prediction model for post meningitis hearing loss.

  19. Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Monego, Maurici; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano; Ramos, Patrícia

    2015-04-01

    In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Matèrn models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

  20. Additive protection by LDR and FGF21 treatment against diabetic nephropathy in type 2 diabetes model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Minglong; Yu, Lechu; Zhang, Fangfang; Lu, Xuemian; Li, Xiaokun; Cheng, Peng; Lin, Xiufei; He, Luqing; Jin, Shunzi; Tan, Yi; Yang, Hong; Zhang, Chi; Cai, Lu

    2015-07-01

    The onset of diabetic nephropathy (DN) is associated with both systemic and renal changes. Fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-21 prevents diabetic complications mainly by improving systemic metabolism. In addition, low-dose radiation (LDR) protects mice from DN directly by preventing renal oxidative stress and inflammation. In the present study, we tried to define whether the combination of FGF21 and LDR could further prevent DN by blocking its systemic and renal pathogeneses. To this end, type 2 diabetes was induced by feeding a high-fat diet for 12 wk followed by a single dose injection of streptozotocin. Diabetic mice were exposed to 50 mGy LDR every other day for 4 wk with and without 1.5 mg/kg FGF21 daily for 8 wk. The changes in systemic parameters, including blood glucose levels, lipid profiles, and insulin resistance, as well as renal pathology, were examined. Diabetic mice exhibited renal dysfunction and pathological abnormalities, all of which were prevented significantly by LDR and/or FGF21; the best effects were observed in the group that received the combination treatment. Our studies revealed that the additive renal protection conferred by the combined treatment against diabetes-induced renal fibrosis, inflammation, and oxidative damage was associated with the systemic improvement of hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, and insulin resistance. These results suggest that the combination treatment with LDR and FGF21 prevented DN more efficiently than did either treatment alone. The mechanism behind these protective effects could be attributed to the suppression of both systemic and renal pathways. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  1. Three-factor model of premorbid adjustment in a sample with chronic schizophrenia and first-episode psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barajas, Ana; Usall, Judith; Baños, Iris; Dolz, Montserrat; Villalta-Gil, Victoria; Vilaplana, Miriam; Autonell, Jaume; Sánchez, Bernardo; Cervilla, Jorge A; Foix, Alexandrina; Obiols, Jordi E; Haro, Josep Maria; Ochoa, Susana

    2013-12-01

    The dimensionality of premorbid adjustment (PA) has been a debated issue, with attempts to determine whether PA is a unitary construct or composed of several independent domains characterized by a differential deterioration pattern and specific outcome correlates. This study examines the factorial structure of PA, as well as, the course and correlates of its domains. Retrospective study of 84 adult patients experiencing first-episode psychosis (FEP) (n=33) and individuals with schizophrenia (SCH) (n=51). All patients were evaluated with a comprehensive battery of instruments including clinical, functioning and neuropsychological variables. A principal component analysis accompanied by a varimax rotation method was used to examine the factor structure of the PAS-S scale. Paired t tests and Wilcoxon rank tests were used to assess the changes in PAS domains over time. Bivariate correlation analyses were performed to analyse the relationship between PAS factors and clinical, social and cognitive variables. PA was better explained by three factors (71.65% of the variance): Academic PA, Social PA and Socio-sexual PA. The academic domain showed higher scores of PA from childhood. Social and clinical variables were more strongly related to Social PA and Socio-sexual PA domains, and the Academic PA domain was exclusively associated with cognitive variables. This study supports previous evidence, emphasizing the validity of dividing PA into its sub-components. A differential deterioration pattern and specific correlates were observed in each PA domains, suggesting that impairments in each PA domain might predispose individuals to develop different expressions of psychotic dimensions. © 2013.

  2. THE TECTONICS STRESS AND STRAIN FIELD MODELING ADJUSTED FOR EVOLUTION OF GEOLOGICAL STRUCTURES (SAILAG INTRUSION, EASTERN SAYAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Voytenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a tectonophysical model showing evolution of structures in the Sailag granodiorite massif in relation to its gold-bearing capacity. The model takes into account the load patterns according to geological data, accumulated deformation, and gravity stresses. This model provides for updating the structural-geological model showing development of the intrusion body and the ore field. Forecasted are destruction patterns in the apical and above-dome parts of the massif  in the intrusion and contraction phase, formation of the long-term shear zone at the steeply dipping slope of the intrusion body, and subvertical fractures associated with the long-term shear zone and vertical mechanical ‘layering’ of the intrusive body.  

  3. A Monte Carlo-adjusted goodness-of-fit test for parametric models describing spatial point patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Dao, Ngocanh; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for intricate parametric spatial point process models is important for many application fields. When the probability density of the statistic of the GOF test is intractable, a commonly used procedure is the Monte

  4. Partial inertia induces additional phase transition in the majority vote model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harunari, Pedro E; de Oliveira, M M; Fiore, C E

    2017-10-01

    Explosive (i.e., discontinuous) transitions have aroused great interest by manifesting in distinct systems, such as synchronization in coupled oscillators, percolation regime, absorbing phase transitions, and more recently, the majority-vote model with inertia. In the latter, the model rules are slightly modified by the inclusion of a term depending on the local spin (an inertial term). In such a case, Chen et al. [Phys Rev. E 95, 042304 (2017)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.95.042304] have found that relevant inertia changes the nature of the phase transition in complex networks, from continuous to discontinuous. Here we give a further step by embedding inertia only in vertices with degree larger than a threshold value 〈k〉k^{*}, 〈k〉 being the mean system degree and k^{*} the fraction restriction. Our results, from mean-field analysis and extensive numerical simulations, reveal that an explosive transition is presented in both homogeneous and heterogeneous structures for small and intermediate k^{*}'s. Otherwise, a large restriction can sustain a discontinuous transition only in the heterogeneous case. This shares some similarities with recent results for the Kuramoto model [Phys. Rev. E 91, 022818 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.91.022818]. Surprisingly, intermediate restriction and large inertia are responsible for the emergence of an extra phase, in which the system is partially synchronized and the classification of phase transition depends on the inertia and the lattice topology. In this case, the system exhibits two phase transitions.

  5. A longitudinal examination of the Adaptation to Poverty-Related Stress Model: predicting child and adolescent adjustment over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadsworth, Martha E; Rindlaub, Laura; Hurwich-Reiss, Eliana; Rienks, Shauna; Bianco, Hannah; Markman, Howard J

    2013-01-01

    This study tests key tenets of the Adaptation to Poverty-related Stress Model. This model (Wadsworth, Raviv, Santiago, & Etter, 2011 ) builds on Conger and Elder's family stress model by proposing that primary control coping and secondary control coping can help reduce the negative effects of economic strain on parental behaviors central to the family stress model, namely, parental depressive symptoms and parent-child interactions, which together can decrease child internalizing and externalizing problems. Two hundred seventy-five co-parenting couples with children between the ages of 1 and 18 participated in an evaluation of a brief family strengthening intervention, aimed at preventing economic strain's negative cascade of influence on parents, and ultimately their children. The longitudinal path model, analyzed at the couple dyad level with mothers and fathers nested within couple, showed very good fit, and was not moderated by child gender or ethnicity. Analyses revealed direct positive effects of primary control coping and secondary control coping on mothers' and fathers' depressive symptoms. Decreased economic strain predicted more positive father-child interactions, whereas increased secondary control coping predicted less negative mother-child interactions. Positive parent-child interactions, along with decreased parent depression and economic strain, predicted child internalizing and externalizing over the course of 18 months. Multiple-group models analyzed separately by parent gender revealed, however, that child age moderated father effects. Findings provide support for the adaptation to poverty-related stress model and suggest that prevention and clinical interventions for families affected by poverty-related stress may be strengthened by including modules that address economic strain and efficacious strategies for coping with strain.

  6. An explanation for the multiplicative and the additive dose-effect relationship with the single-hit model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kottbauer, M.M.; Fleck, C.M.; Schoellnberger, H.

    1997-01-01

    For solid tumors and for leukemia the excess cancer rate after a single radiation dose D is different. The multiplicative model describes the excess solid tumor probability rate which is proportional to the background rate of cancer and dependent on dose D. The additive model describes the excess probability rate for leukaemia which is proportional to the dose D but unrelated to the spontaneous rate of cancer. A second great difference between the two models is the duration of the increased cancer probability rate. The multiplicative mode predicts that the additional cancer risk persist the whole lifetime after exposure and the additive model predicts excess risk over a period of time. With the Single-hit model (SHM) which is a multistage cancer model both dose-response relationships can be described. It will be shown that only small differences in the derivation will lead to the different relationships. We then analyze the incidence data of leukemia (1950-1987) and of all solid tumors (1958-1987) of the atomic bomb survivors. (author)

  7. Use of Angle Model to Understand Addition and Subtraction of Fractions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muzwangowenyu Mukwambo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Learners in lower primary and even some in upper primary grades grapple to perform mathematical operations which involve fractions. Failure to solve these mathematical operations creates a gap in the teaching and learning processes of mathematics. We opine that this is attributed to use of traditional mathematical approaches of teaching and learning (TMATL of operations of fraction. With the hope of engaging the reformed mathematical approach of teaching and learning (RMATL this study investigated the following: How can trainee teachers use the angle model in RMATL operations of fractions? What are the perceptions of trainee teachers in the use of the angle model which engages RMATL to teach the operations of fractions? With the goal to fill the mentioned gap in which learners struggle to perform operations involving fractions, we observed and analysed worksheets on operation with fractions students wrote. Observations and interviews with trainee teachers of lower primary revealed poor performance in problems related to operations with fractions. Observed patterns supported by cognitivism revealed that invented methods or strategies on which RMATL is anchored are suitable enough to engage learner–centred teaching and learning which can prevent the abstractness of the concept of operations with fractions.

  8. Modeling the Influence of Process Parameters and Additional Heat Sources on Residual Stresses in Laser Cladding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brückner, F.; Lepski, D.; Beyer, E.

    2007-09-01

    In laser cladding thermal contraction of the initially liquid coating during cooling causes residual stresses and possibly cracks. Preweld or postweld heating using inductors can reduce the thermal strain difference between coating and substrate and thus reduce the resulting stress. The aim of this work is to better understand the influence of various thermometallurgical and mechanical phenomena on stress evolution and to optimize the induction-assisted laser cladding process to get crack-free coatings of hard materials at high feed rates. First, an analytical one-dimensional model is used to visualize the most important features of stress evolution for a Stellite coating on a steel substrate. For more accurate studies, laser cladding is simulated including the powder-beam interaction, the powder catchment by the melt pool, and the self-consistent calculation of temperature field and bead shape. A three-dimensional finite element model and the required equivalent heat sources are derived from the results and used for the transient thermomechanical analysis, taking into account phase transformations and the elastic-plastic material behavior with strain hardening. Results are presented for the influence of process parameters such as feed rate, heat input, and inductor size on the residual stresses at a single bead of Stellite coatings on steel.

  9. Adequacy and adjustment of electromechanical elements of a X radiation generator for automation of system of additional filtration; Adequacao e ajuste dos elementos eletromecanicos de um gerador de radiacao X para automacao do sistema de filtracao adicional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves Junior, Iremar; Santos, Lucas dos; Potiens, Maria da Penha A.; Vivolo, Vitor, E-mail: iremarjr@usp.b, E-mail: lucas.se@usp.b, E-mail: mppalbu@ipen.b, E-mail: vivolo@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-10-26

    This paper dimensioned the filter wheel components and the adequacy of additional filtrations for the implantation of the OTW automated system with complete replacement of previous used filtration by new set of machine-made filters to be used as the qualities already implanted at the Instrument Calibration Laboratory of the IPEN, Sao Paulo, Brazil. In the sequence, it was performed the measurements of kerma i the air in each quality to be used as reference values

  10. Normative weight-adjusted models for the median levels of first trimester serum biomarkers for trisomy 21 screening in a specific ethnicity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ounjai Kor-Anantakul

    Full Text Available To establish normative weight-adjusted models for the median levels of first trimester serum biomarkers for trisomy 21 screening in southern Thai women, and to compare these reference levels with Caucasian-specific and northern Thai models.A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1,150 normal singleton pregnancy women to determine serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG concentrations in women from southern Thailand. The predicted median values were compared with published equations for Caucasians and northern Thai women.The best-fitting regression equations for the expected median serum levels of PAPP-A (mIU/L and free β- hCG (ng/mL according to maternal weight (Wt in kg and gestational age (GA in days were: [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] Both equations were selected with a statistically significant contribution (p< 0.05. Compared with the Caucasian model, the median values of PAPP-A were higher and the median values of free β-hCG were lower in the southern Thai women. And compared with the northern Thai models, the median values of both biomarkers were lower in southern Thai women.The study has successfully developed maternal-weight- and gestational-age-adjusted median normative models to convert the PAPP-A and free β-hCG levels into their Multiple of Median equivalents in southern Thai women. These models confirmed ethnic differences.

  11. The Job Demands-Resources Model: An Analysis of Additive and Joint Effects of Demands and Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qiao; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Taris, Toon W.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the additive, synergistic, and moderating effects of job demands and job resources on well-being (burnout and work engagement) and organizational outcomes, as specified by the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. A survey was conducted among two Chinese samples: 625 blue collar workers and 761 health professionals. A…

  12. Functional Resilience and Response to a Dietary Additive (Kefir) in Models of Foregut and Hindgut Microbial Fermentation In Vitro

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Gabriel; Jones, Eleanor; Jones, Shann; Newbold, Charles J.

    2017-01-01

    Stability in gut ecosystems is an important area of study that impacts on the use of additives and is related with several pathologies. Kefir is a fermented milk drink made with a consortium of yeast and bacteria as a fermentation starter, of which the use as additive in companion and livestock animals has increased in the last few years. To investigate the effect of kefir milk on foregut and hindgut digestive systems, an in vitro approach was followed. Either rumen fluid or horse fecal contents were used as a microbial inoculate and the inclusion of kefir (fresh, autoclaved, or pasteurized) was tested. Gas production over 72 h of incubation was recorded and pH, volatile fatty acids (VFAs), lactate and ammonia concentration as well as lactic acid (LAB) and acetic acid bacteria, and yeast total numbers were also measured. Both direct and indirect (by subtracting their respective blanks) effects were analyzed and a multivariate analysis was performed to compare foregut and hindgut fermentation models. Addition of kefir boosted the fermentation by increasing molar concentration of VFAs and ammonia and shifting the Acetate to Propionate ratio in both models but heat processing techniques like pasteurization or autoclaving influenced the way the kefir is fermented and reacts with the present microbiota. In terms of comparison between both models, the foregut model seems to be less affected by the inclusion of Kefir than the hindgut model. In terms of variability in the response, the hindgut model appeared to be more variable than the foregut model in the way that it reacted indirectly to the addition of different types of kefir. PMID:28702019

  13. Functional Resilience and Response to a Dietary Additive (Kefir in Models of Foregut and Hindgut Microbial Fermentation In Vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel de la Fuente

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Stability in gut ecosystems is an important area of study that impacts on the use of additives and is related with several pathologies. Kefir is a fermented milk drink made with a consortium of yeast and bacteria as a fermentation starter, of which the use as additive in companion and livestock animals has increased in the last few years. To investigate the effect of kefir milk on foregut and hindgut digestive systems, an in vitro approach was followed. Either rumen fluid or horse fecal contents were used as a microbial inoculate and the inclusion of kefir (fresh, autoclaved, or pasteurized was tested. Gas production over 72 h of incubation was recorded and pH, volatile fatty acids (VFAs, lactate and ammonia concentration as well as lactic acid (LAB and acetic acid bacteria, and yeast total numbers were also measured. Both direct and indirect (by subtracting their respective blanks effects were analyzed and a multivariate analysis was performed to compare foregut and hindgut fermentation models. Addition of kefir boosted the fermentation by increasing molar concentration of VFAs and ammonia and shifting the Acetate to Propionate ratio in both models but heat processing techniques like pasteurization or autoclaving influenced the way the kefir is fermented and reacts with the present microbiota. In terms of comparison between both models, the foregut model seems to be less affected by the inclusion of Kefir than the hindgut model. In terms of variability in the response, the hindgut model appeared to be more variable than the foregut model in the way that it reacted indirectly to the addition of different types of kefir.

  14. Functional Resilience and Response to a Dietary Additive (Kefir) in Models of Foregut and Hindgut Microbial Fermentation In Vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Gabriel; Jones, Eleanor; Jones, Shann; Newbold, Charles J

    2017-01-01

    Stability in gut ecosystems is an important area of study that impacts on the use of additives and is related with several pathologies. Kefir is a fermented milk drink made with a consortium of yeast and bacteria as a fermentation starter, of which the use as additive in companion and livestock animals has increased in the last few years. To investigate the effect of kefir milk on foregut and hindgut digestive systems, an in vitro approach was followed. Either rumen fluid or horse fecal contents were used as a microbial inoculate and the inclusion of kefir (fresh, autoclaved, or pasteurized) was tested. Gas production over 72 h of incubation was recorded and pH, volatile fatty acids (VFAs), lactate and ammonia concentration as well as lactic acid (LAB) and acetic acid bacteria, and yeast total numbers were also measured. Both direct and indirect (by subtracting their respective blanks) effects were analyzed and a multivariate analysis was performed to compare foregut and hindgut fermentation models. Addition of kefir boosted the fermentation by increasing molar concentration of VFAs and ammonia and shifting the Acetate to Propionate ratio in both models but heat processing techniques like pasteurization or autoclaving influenced the way the kefir is fermented and reacts with the present microbiota. In terms of comparison between both models, the foregut model seems to be less affected by the inclusion of Kefir than the hindgut model. In terms of variability in the response, the hindgut model appeared to be more variable than the foregut model in the way that it reacted indirectly to the addition of different types of kefir.

  15. Modeling, Simulation, Additive Manufacturing, and Experimental Evaluation of Solid and Porous NiTi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheri Andani, Mohsen

    In recent years, shape memory alloys (SMAs) have entered a wide range of engineering applications in fields such as aerospace and medical applications. Nickel-titanium (NiTi) is the most commonly used SMAs due to its excellent functional characteristics (shape memory effect and superelasticity behavior). These properties are based on a solid-solid phase transformation between martensite and austenite. Beside these two characteristics, low stiffness, biocompatibility and corrosion properties of NiTi make it an attractive candidate for biomedical applications (e.g., bone plates, bone screws, and vascular stents). It is well know that manufacturing and processing of NiTi is very challenging. The functional properties of NiTi are significantly affected by the impurity level and due to the high titanium content, NiTi are highly reactive. Therefore, high temperature processed parts through methods such as melting and casting which result in increased impurity levels have inadequate structural and functional properties. Furthermore, high ductility and elasticity of NiTi, adhesion, work hardening and spring back effects make machining quite challenging. These unfavorable effects for machining cause significant tool wear along with decreasing the quality of work piece. Recently, additive manufacturing (AM) has gained significant attention for manufacturing NiTi. Since AM can create a part directly from CAD data, it is predicted that AM can overcome most of the manufacturing difficulties. This technique provides the possibility of fabricating highly complex parts, which cannot be processed by any other methods. Curved holes, designed porosity, and lattice like structures are some examples of mentioned complex parts. This work investigates manufacturing superelastic NiTi by selective laser melting (SLM) technique (using PXM by Phenix/3D Systems). An extended experimental study is conducted on the effect of subsequent heat treatments with different aging conditions on phase

  16. Risk-adjusted capitation based on the Diagnostic Cost Group Model: an empirical evaluation with health survey information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Diagnostic Cost Group (DCG) model using health survey information. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Longitudinal data collected for a sample of members of a Dutch sickness fund. In the Netherlands the sickness

  17. Tree Biomass Allocation and Its Model Additivity for Casuarina equisetifolia in a Tropical Forest of Hainan Island, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yang; Yang, Zhongyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Zhipan; Li, Dunxi; Su, Shaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Casuarina equisetifolia is commonly planted and used in the construction of coastal shelterbelt protection in Hainan Island. Thus, it is critical to accurately estimate the tree biomass of Casuarina equisetifolia L. for forest managers to evaluate the biomass stock in Hainan. The data for this work consisted of 72 trees, which were divided into three age groups: young forest, middle-aged forest, and mature forest. The proportion of biomass from the trunk significantly increased with age (Pbiomass of the branch and leaf decreased, and the biomass of the root did not change. To test whether the crown radius (CR) can improve biomass estimates of C. equisetifolia, we introduced CR into the biomass models. Here, six models were used to estimate the biomass of each component, including the trunk, the branch, the leaf, and the root. In each group, we selected one model among these six models for each component. The results showed that including the CR greatly improved the model performance and reduced the error, especially for the young and mature forests. In addition, to ensure biomass additivity, the selected equation for each component was fitted as a system of equations using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR method not only gave efficient and accurate estimates but also achieved the logical additivity. The results in this study provide a robust estimation of tree biomass components and total biomass over three groups of C. equisetifolia.

  18. Tree Biomass Allocation and Its Model Additivity for Casuarina equisetifolia in a Tropical Forest of Hainan Island, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yang; Yang, Zhongyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Zhipan; Li, Dunxi; Su, Shaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Casuarina equisetifolia is commonly planted and used in the construction of coastal shelterbelt protection in Hainan Island. Thus, it is critical to accurately estimate the tree biomass of Casuarina equisetifolia L. for forest managers to evaluate the biomass stock in Hainan. The data for this work consisted of 72 trees, which were divided into three age groups: young forest, middle-aged forest, and mature forest. The proportion of biomass from the trunk significantly increased with age (Pbiomass of the branch and leaf decreased, and the biomass of the root did not change. To test whether the crown radius (CR) can improve biomass estimates of C. equisetifolia, we introduced CR into the biomass models. Here, six models were used to estimate the biomass of each component, including the trunk, the branch, the leaf, and the root. In each group, we selected one model among these six models for each component. The results showed that including the CR greatly improved the model performance and reduced the error, especially for the young and mature forests. In addition, to ensure biomass additivity, the selected equation for each component was fitted as a system of equations using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR method not only gave efficient and accurate estimates but also achieved the logical additivity. The results in this study provide a robust estimation of tree biomass components and total biomass over three groups of C. equisetifolia. PMID:27002822

  19. Recent Additions in the Modeling Capabilities of an Open-Source Wave Energy Converter Design Tool: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, N.; Lawson, M.; Yu, Y. H.

    2015-04-20

    WEC-Sim is a midfidelity numerical tool for modeling wave energy conversion devices. The code uses the MATLAB SimMechanics package to solve multibody dynamics and models wave interactions using hydrodynamic coefficients derived from frequency-domain boundary-element methods. This paper presents the new modeling features introduced in the latest release of WEC-Sim. The first feature discussed conversion of the fluid memory kernel to a state-space form. This enhancement offers a substantial computational benefit after the hydrodynamic body-to-body coefficients are introduced and the number of interactions increases exponentially with each additional body. Additional features include the ability to calculate the wave-excitation forces based on the instantaneous incident wave angle, allowing the device to weathervane, as well as import a user-defined wave elevation time series. A review of the hydrodynamic theory for each feature is provided and the successful implementation is verified using test cases.

  20. Concentration addition and independent action model: Which is better in predicting the toxicity for metal mixtures on zebrafish larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yongfei; Feng, Jianfeng; Kang, Lili; Xu, Xin; Zhu, Lin

    2018-01-01

    The joint toxicity of chemical mixtures has emerged as a popular topic, particularly on the additive and potential synergistic actions of environmental mixtures. We investigated the 24h toxicity of Cu-Zn, Cu-Cd, and Cu-Pb and 96h toxicity of Cd-Pb binary mixtures on the survival of zebrafish larvae. Joint toxicity was predicted and compared using the concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) models with different assumptions in the toxic action mode in toxicodynamic processes through single and binary metal mixture tests. Results showed that the CA and IA models presented varying predictive abilities for different metal combinations. For the Cu-Cd and Cd-Pb mixtures, the CA model simulated the observed survival rates better than the IA model. By contrast, the IA model simulated the observed survival rates better than the CA model for the Cu-Zn and Cu-Pb mixtures. These findings revealed that the toxic action mode may depend on the combinations and concentrations of tested metal mixtures. Statistical analysis of the antagonistic or synergistic interactions indicated that synergistic interactions were observed for the Cu-Cd and Cu-Pb mixtures, non-interactions were observed for the Cd-Pb mixtures, and slight antagonistic interactions for the Cu-Zn mixtures. These results illustrated that the CA and IA models are consistent in specifying the interaction patterns of binary metal mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Hardiness scales in Iranian managers: evidence of incremental validity in relationships with the five factor model and with organizational and psychological adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Nima; Watson, P J

    2005-06-01

    This study examined the incremental validity of Hardiness scales in a sample of Iranian managers. Along with measures of the Five Factor Model and of Organizational and Psychological Adjustment, Hardiness scales were administered to 159 male managers (M age = 39.9, SD = 7.5) who had worked in their organizations for 7.9 yr. (SD=5.4). Hardiness predicted greater Job Satisfaction, higher Organization-based Self-esteem, and perceptions of the work environment as being less stressful and constraining. Hardiness also correlated positively with Assertiveness, Emotional Stability, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and negatively with Depression, Anxiety, Perceived Stress, Chance External Control, and a Powerful Others External Control. Evidence of incremental validity was obtained when the Hardiness scales supplemented the Five Factor Model in predicting organizational and psychological adjustment. These data documented the incremental validity of the Hardiness scales in a non-Western sample and thus confirmed once again that Hardiness has a relevance that extends beyond the culture in which it was developed.

  2. An Evaluation of the Adjusted DeLone and McLean Model of Information Systems Success; the case of financial information system in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Lagzian

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the success of information systems within organizations has been identified as one of the most critical subjects of information system management in both public and private organizations. It is therefore important to measure the success of information systems from the user's perspective. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the degree of information system success by the adjusted DeLone and McLean’s model in the field financial information system (FIS in an Iranian University. The relationships among the dimensions in an extended systems success measurement framework were tested. Data were collected by questionnaire from end-users of a financial information system at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. The adjusted DeLone and McLean model was contained five variables (system quality, information quality, system use, user satisfaction, and individual impact. The results revealed that system quality was significant predictor of system use, user satisfaction and individual impact. Information quality was also a significant predictor of user satisfaction and individual impact, but not of system use. System use and user satisfaction were positively related to individual impact. The influence of user satisfaction on system use was insignificant

  3. Work-Family Balance and Psychosocial Adjustment of Married International Students

    OpenAIRE

    Gökçe Bulgan; Ayşe Çiftçi

    2018-01-01

    The authors investigated how work-family balance mediated the relationship between personality traits, gender roles, social support, and psychosocial adjustment. Data were collected from 243 married international graduate students (MIGSs) studying in the United States. Results of structural equation modeling indicated that personality traits influence the psychosocial adjustment process. In addition, being extraverted, agreeable, and conscientious contributed to balanc...

  4. Development of the next generation code system as an engineering modeling language (6). Development of a cross section adjustment and nuclear design accuracy evaluation solver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokoyama, Kenji; Numata, Kazuyuki

    2008-01-01

    A new cross section adjustment and nuclear design accuracy evaluation solver was developed as a set of modules for MARBLE (multi-purpose advanced reactor physics analysis system based on language of engineering). In order to enhance the system extendibility and flexibility, the object-oriented design and analysis technique was adopted to the development. In the new system, it is easy to add a new design accuracy evaluation method because a new numerical calculation module is independent from other modules. Further, several new functions such as searching and editing calculation data are provided in the new solver. These functions can be easily customised by users because they are designed to work cooperatively with Python scripting language, which is used as a user interface of the MARBLE system. In order to validate the new solver, a test calculation was performed for a realistic calculation case of creating a new unified cross section library. In the test calculation, results calculated by the new solver agreed well with those by the conventional code system. In addition, it is possible to reuse existing input data files prepared for the conventional code system because the new solver utilities support the conventional formats. Because the new solver implements all main functions of the conventional code system, MARBLE can be used as a new calculation code system for cross section adjustment and nuclear design accuracy evaluation

  5. Factor Xa generation by computational modeling: an additional discriminator to thrombin generation evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen E Brummel-Ziedins

    Full Text Available Factor (fXa is a critical enzyme in blood coagulation that is responsible for the initiation and propagation of thrombin generation. Previously we have shown that analysis of computationally generated thrombin profiles is a tool to investigate hemostasis in various populations. In this study, we evaluate the potential of computationally derived time courses of fXa generation as another approach for investigating thrombotic risk. Utilizing the case (n = 473 and control (n = 426 population from the Leiden Thrombophilia Study and each individual's plasma protein factor composition for fII, fV, fVII, fVIII, fIX, fX, antithrombin and tissue factor pathway inhibitor, tissue factor-initiated total active fXa generation was assessed using a mathematical model. FXa generation was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC, the maximum rate (MaxR and level (MaxL and the time to reach these, TMaxR and TMaxL, respectively. FXa generation was analyzed in the entire populations and in defined subgroups (by sex, age, body mass index, oral contraceptive use. The maximum rates and levels of fXa generation occur over a 10- to 12- fold range in both cases and controls. This variation is larger than that observed with thrombin (3-6 fold in the same population. The greatest risk association was obtained using either MaxR or MaxL of fXa generation; with an ∼2.2 fold increased risk for individuals exceeding the 90(th percentile. This risk was similar to that of thrombin generation(MaxR OR 2.6. Grouping defined by oral contraceptive (OC use in the control population showed the biggest differences in fXa generation; a >60% increase in the MaxR upon OC use. FXa generation can distinguish between a subset of individuals characterized by overlapping thrombin generation profiles. Analysis of fXa generation is a phenotypic characteristic which may prove to be a more sensitive discriminator than thrombin generation among all individuals.

  6. Measuring demand for flat water recreation using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel cost model with adjustment for overdispersion and self-selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

    2003-04-01

    An alternate travel cost model is applied to an on-site sample to estimate the value of flat water recreation on the impounded lower Snake River. Four contiguous reservoirs would be eliminated if the dams are breached to protect endangered Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. The empirical method applies truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for endogenous stratification. The two-stage decision model assumes that recreationists allocate their time among work and leisure prior to deciding among consumer goods. The allocation of time and money among goods in the second stage is conditional on the predetermined work time and income. The second stage is a disequilibrium labor market which also applies if employers set work hours or if recreationists are not in the labor force. When work time is either predetermined, fixed by contract, or nonexistent, recreationists must consider separate prices and budgets for time and money.

  7. Assessment of regression models for adjustment of iron status biomarkers for inflammation in children with moderate acute malnutrition in Burkina Faso

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cichon, Bernardette; Ritz, Christian; Fabiansen, Christian

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of iron status are affected by inflammation. In order to interpret them in individuals with inflammation, the use of correction factors (CFs) has been proposed. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the use of regression models as an alternative to the CF...... approach. METHODS: Morbidity data were collected during clinical examinations with morbidity recalls in a cross-sectional study in children aged 6-23 mo with moderate acute malnutrition. C-reactive protein (CRP), α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), serum ferritin (SF), and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) were......TfR with the use of the best-performing model led to a 17% point increase and iron deficiency. CONCLUSION: Regression analysis is an alternative to adjust SF and may be preferable in research settings, because it can take morbidity and severity...

  8. Density prediction and dimensionality reduction of mid-term electricity demand in China: A new semiparametric-based additive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao, Zhen; Yang, Shan-Lin; Gao, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new stationary time series smoothing-based semiparametric model is established. • A novel semiparametric additive model based on piecewise smooth is proposed. • We model the uncertainty of data distribution for mid-term electricity forecasting. • We provide efficient long horizon simulation and extraction for external variables. • We provide stable and accurate density predictions for mid-term electricity demand. - Abstract: Accurate mid-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient electric planning, budgeting and operating decisions. Mid-term electricity demand forecasting is notoriously complicated, since the demand is subject to a range of external drivers, such as climate change, economic development, which will exhibit monthly, seasonal, and annual complex variations. Conventional models are based on the assumption that original data is stable and normally distributed, which is generally insignificant in explaining actual demand pattern. This paper proposes a new semiparametric additive model that, in addition to considering the uncertainty of the data distribution, includes practical discussions covering the applications of the external variables. To effectively detach the multi-dimensional volatility of mid-term demand, a novel piecewise smooth method which allows reduction of the data dimensionality is developed. Besides, a semi-parametric procedure that makes use of bootstrap algorithm for density forecast and model estimation is presented. Two typical cases in China are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results suggest that both meteorological and economic variables play a critical role in mid-term electricity consumption prediction in China, while the extracted economic factor is adequate to reveal the potentially complex relationship between electricity consumption and economic fluctuation. Overall, the proposed model can be easily applied to mid-term demand forecasting, and

  9. Burden of Disease Measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years and a Disease Forecasting Time Series Model of Scrub Typhus in Laiwu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li-Ping; Liang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Xian-Jun; Li, Xiu-Jun; Wu, Yan-Ling; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles. Methodology/Principal Findings A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60–69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October. Conclusions/Significance Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. PMID:25569248

  10. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  11. The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodson, Daniel L.R.; Sutton, Rowan T. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-15

    Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models. (orig.)

  12. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model-observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.

  13. Annual Adjustment Factors

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — The Department of Housing and Urban Development establishes the rent adjustment factors - called Annual Adjustment Factors (AAFs) - on the basis of Consumer Price...

  14. Drought mitigation in perennial crops by fertilization and adjustments of regional yield models for future climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantola, I. B.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Masters, M. D.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.

    2017-12-01

    Increased variability and intensity of precipitation in the Midwest agricultural belt due to climate change is a major concern. The success of perennial bioenergy crops in replacing maize for bioethanol production is dependent on sustained yields that exceed maize, and the marketing of perennial crops often emphasizes the resilience of perennial agriculture to climate stressors. Land conversion from maize for bioethanol to Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) increases yields and annual evapotranspiration rates (ET). However, establishment of miscanthus also increases biome water use efficiency (the ratio between net ecosystem productivity after harvest and ET), due to greater belowground biomass in miscanthus than in maize or soybean. In 2012, a widespread drought reduced the yield of 5-year-old miscanthus plots in central Illinois by 36% compared to the previous two years. Eddy covariance data indicated continued soil water deficit during the hydrologically-normal growing season in 2013 and miscanthus yield failed to rebound as expected, lagging behind pre-drought yields by an average of 53% over the next three years. In early 2014, nitrogen fertilizer was applied to half of mature (7-year-old) miscanthus plots in an effort to improve yields. In plots with annual post-emergence application of 60 kg ha-1 of urea, peak biomass was 29% greater than unfertilized miscanthus in 2014, and 113% greater in 2015, achieving statistically similar yields to the pre-drought average. Regional-scale models of perennial crop productivity use 30-year climate averages that are inadequate for predicting long-term effects of short-term extremes on perennial crops. Modeled predictions of perennial crop productivity incorporating repeated extreme weather events, observed crop response, and the use of management practices to mitigate water deficit demonstrate divergent effects on predicted yields.

  15. runjags: An R Package Providing Interface Utilities, Model Templates, Parallel Computing Methods and Additional Distributions for MCMC Models in JAGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Denwood

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The runjags package provides a set of interface functions to facilitate running Markov chain Monte Carlo models in JAGS from within R. Automated calculation of appropriate convergence and sample length diagnostics, user-friendly access to commonly used graphical outputs and summary statistics, and parallelized methods of running JAGS are provided. Template model specifications can be generated using a standard lme4-style formula interface to assist users less familiar with the BUGS syntax. Automated simulation study functions are implemented to facilitate model performance assessment, as well as drop-k type cross-validation studies, using high performance computing clusters such as those provided by parallel. A module extension for JAGS is also included within runjags, providing the Pareto family of distributions and a series of minimally-informative priors including the DuMouchel and half-Cauchy priors. This paper outlines the primary functions of this package, and gives an illustration of a simulation study to assess the sensitivity of two equivalent model formulations to different prior distributions.

  16. NET SALARY ADJUSTMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    Finance Division

    2001-01-01

    On 15 June 2001 the Council approved the correction of the discrepancy identified in the net salary adjustment implemented on 1st January 2001 by retroactively increasing the scale of basic salaries to achieve the 2.8% average net salary adjustment approved in December 2000. We should like to inform you that the corresponding adjustment will be made to your July salary. Full details of the retroactive adjustments will consequently be shown on your pay slip.

  17. Kinematic adjustments to seismic recordings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Telegin, A.N.; Levii, N.V.; Volovik, U.M.

    1981-01-01

    The introduction of kinematic adjustments by adding the displaced blocks is studied theoretically and in test seismograms. The advantage to this method resulting from the weight variation in the trace is demonstrated together with its kinematic drawback. A variation on the displaced block addition method that does not involve realignment of the travel time curves and that has improved amplitude characteristics is proposed.

  18. Parameter and State Estimation of an Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Wastes Model with Addition of Stimulating Substances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velislava Lubenova

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available New control inputs are introduced in the 5th order mass-balance non-linear model of the anaerobic digestion, which reflects the addition of stimulating substances (acetate and glucose. Laboratory experiments have been done with step-wise and pulse changes of these new inputs. On the basis of the step responses of the measured variables (biogas flow rate and acetate concentration in the bioreactor and iterative methodology, involving non-linear optimisation and simulations, the model coefficients have been estimated. The model validity has been proved by another set of experiments. The observation part is built on a two-step structure. One estimator and two observers are designed on the basis of this process model. Their stability has been proved and their performances have been investigated with experimental data and simulations.

  19. The influence of inquiry learning model on additives theme with ethnoscience content to cultural awareness of students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudarmin, S.; Selia, E.; Taufiq, M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to determine the influence of inquiry learning model on additives theme with ethnoscience content to cultural awareness of students and how the students’ responses to learning. The method applied in this research is a quasi-experimental with non-equivalent control group design. The sampling technique applied in this research is the technique of random sampling. The samples were eight grade students of one of junior high schools in Semarang. The results of this research were (1) thestudents’ cultural awareness of the experiment class is better than the control class (2) inquiry learning model with ethnoscience content strongly influencing the cultural awareness of students by 78% and (3) students gave positive responses to inquiry learning model with ethnoscience content. The conclusions of this research are inquiry-learning model with ethnoscience content has positive influence on students’ cultural awareness.

  20. Associations between maternal and paternal depressive symptoms and early child behavior problems: Testing a mutually adjusted prospective longitudinal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Martina K; Nærde, Ane

    2016-05-15

    While there is substantial empirical work on maternal depression, less is known about how mothers' and fathers' depressive symptoms compare in their association with child behavior problems in early childhood. In particular, few studies have examined unique relationships in the postpartum period by controlling for the other parent, or looked at longitudinal change in either parent's depressive symptoms across the first living years as a predictor of child problems. We examined depressive symptoms in parents at 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months following childbirth, and child behavior problems at 48 months. Linear growth curve analysis was used to model parents' initial levels and changes in symptoms across time and their associations with child outcomes. Mothers' depressive symptoms at 6 months predicted behavior problems at 48 months for all syndrome scales, while fathers' did not. Estimates for mothers' symptoms were significantly stronger on all subscales. Change in fathers' depressive symptoms over time was a significantly larger predictor of child aggressive behavior than corresponding change in mothers'. No interaction effects between parents' symptoms on behavior problems appeared, and few child gender differences. Child behavior was assessed once precluding tests for bidirectional effects. We only looked at linear change in parental symptoms. Mothers' postpartum depressive symptoms are a stronger predictor for early child behavior problems than fathers'. Change in fathers' depressive symptoms across this developmental period was uniquely and strongly associated with child aggressive problems, and should therefore be addressed in future research and clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.