WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelling lifetime cost

  1. Estimating the lifetime cost of childhood obesity in Germany: Results of a Markov Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonntag, D; Ali, S; Lehnert, T; Konnopka, A; Riedel-Heller, S; König, H-H

    2015-12-01

    Child obesity is a growing public health concern. Excess weight in childhood is known to be associated with a high risk of obesity and obesity-related comorbidities in adulthood. This study quantifies lifetime excess costs of overweight and obese adults in Germany taking the history of obesity in childhood into account. A two-stage Markov cohort state transition model was developed. At stage 1, the distribution of body mass index (BMI) categories was tracked from childhood (ages 3-17) to adulthood (age 17 and up). Based on these results, it was distinguished whether adults had been normal in weight or overweight/obese as child. At stage 2, age-specific and lifetime costs from age 18 onwards were simulated in two further Markov cohort models, one for each of the two BMI groups. Model parameter values were obtained from the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS), the German Microcensus 2009 and published literature. When compared with normal weight adults, lifetime excess costs are higher among adults who had been overweight or obese at any point during childhood. For 18-year-old women (men), who have been overweight/obese during their childhood (ages 3-17), undiscounted lifetime excess costs are estimated at €19,479 (€14,524), with 60% (67%) occurring beyond age 60. Discounted (3%) lifetime excess costs are considerably lower, amounting to €4262 for men and €7028 for women. Because childhood obesity determines healthcare costs occurring in adulthood, interventions preventing the persistence of child obesity and obesity-related comorbidities during adulthood could have a substantial impact on reducing the burden of the obesity epidemic. © 2015 World Obesity.

  2. Lifetime costs of cerebral palsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Marie; Michelsen, Susan Ishøy; Flachs, Esben Meulengracht

    2009-01-01

    This study quantified the lifetime costs of cerebral palsy (CP) in a register-based setting. It was the first study outside the US to assess the lifetime costs of CP. The lifetime costs attributable to CP were divided into three categories: health care costs, productivity costs, and social costs...... in 2000. The prevalence of CP in eastern Denmark was approximately 1.7 per 1000. Information on productivity and the use of health care was retrieved from registers. The lifetime cost of CP was about euro860 000 for men and about euro800 000 for women. The largest component was social care costs......, particularly during childhood. A sensitivity analysis found that alterations in social care costs had a small effect, whereas lowering the discount rate from 5 to 3 per cent markedly increased total lifetime costs. Discounting decreases the value of costs in the future compared with the present. The high...

  3. The lifetime cost of a magnetic refrigerator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Bahl, Christian R.H.; Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein

    2016-01-01

    The total cost of a 25 W average load magnetic refrigerator using commercial grade Gd is calculated using a numerical model. The price of magnetocaloric material, magnet material and cost of operation are considered, and all influence the total cost. The lowest combined total cost with a device...... lifetime of 15 years is found to be in the range $150-$400 depending on the price of the magnetocaloric and magnet material. The cost of the magnet is largest, followed closely by the cost of operation, while the cost of the magnetocaloric material is almost negligible. For the lowest cost device......, the optimal magnetic field is about 1.4 T, the particle size is 0.23 mm, the length of the regenerator is 40-50 mm and the utilization is about 0.2, for all device lifetimes and material and magnet prices, while the operating frequency vary as function of device lifetime. The considered performance...

  4. DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  5. Modeling lifetime costs and health outcomes attributable to secondhand smoke exposure at home among Korean adult women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jiyae; Han, Ah Ram; Choi, Dalwoong; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

    2017-05-17

    The aim of this research is to estimate lifetime costs and health consequences for Korean adult women who were exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) at home. A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime healthcare costs and health outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of Korean women who are 40 years old and were married to current smokers. The Korean epidemiological data were used to reflect the natural history of SHS-exposed and non-exposed women. The direct healthcare costs (in 2014 US dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were annually discounted at 5% to reflect time preference. The time horizon of the analysis was lifetime and the cycle length was 1 year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the absence of SHS exposure, Korean women will live 41.32 years or 34.56 QALYs before discount, which corresponded to 17.29 years or 15.35 QALYs after discount. The SHS-exposed women were predicted to live 37.91 years and 31.08 QALYs before discount and 16.76 years and 14.62 QALYs after discount. The estimated lifetime healthcare cost per woman in the SHS non-exposed group was US$11 214 before the discount and US$2465 after discount. The negative impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes and healthcare costs escalated as the time horizon increased, suggesting that the adverse impact of SHS exposure may have higher impact on the later part of the lifetime. The result was consistent across a wide range of assumptions. Life expectancy might underestimate the impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes, especially if the time horizon of the analysis is not long enough. Early intervention on smoking behaviour could substantially reduce direct healthcare costs and improve quality of life attributable to SHS exposure. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  6. Component lifetime modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, J.F.; Verweij, J.F.; Brombacher, A.C.; Brombacher, A.C.; Lunenborg, M.M.; Lunenborg, M.M.

    1994-01-01

    There are two approaches to component lifetime modelling. The first one uses a reliability prediction method as described in the (military) handbooks with the appropriate models and parameters. The advantages are: (a) It takes into account all possible failure mechanisms. (b) It is easy to use. The

  7. The total lifetime costs of smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, S.R.; Prescott, E.; Sørensen, T.I.A.

    2004-01-01

    Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy.......Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy....

  8. Societal and Family Lifetime Cost of Dementia: Implications for Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Dowd, Bryan; Kuntz, Karen M

    2017-10-01

    To estimate the cost of dementia and the extra cost of caring for someone with dementia over the cost of caring for someone without dementia. We developed an evidence-based mathematical model to simulate disease progression for newly diagnosed individuals with dementia. Data-driven trajectories of cognition, function, and behavioral and psychological symptoms were used to model disease progression and predict costs. Using modeling, we evaluated lifetime and annual costs of individuals with dementia, compared costs of those with and without clinical features of dementia, and evaluated the effect of reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% for 12 months (implemented when Mini-Mental State Examination score ≤21). Mathematical model. Representative simulated U.S. incident dementia cases. Value of informal care, out-of-pocket expenditures, Medicaid expenditures, and Medicare expenditures. From time of diagnosis (mean age 83), discounted total lifetime cost of care for a person with dementia was $321,780 (2015 dollars). Families incurred 70% of the total cost burden ($225,140), Medicaid accounted for 14% ($44,090), and Medicare accounted for 16% ($52,540). Costs for a person with dementia over a lifetime were $184,500 greater (86% incurred by families) than for someone without dementia. Total annual cost peaked at $89,000, and net cost peaked at $72,400. Reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% resulted in $3,880 and $680 lower lifetime costs than natural disease progression. Dementia substantially increases lifetime costs of care. Long-lasting, effective interventions are needed to support families because they incur the most dementia cost. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  9. Cost effectiveness of primary care referral to a commercial provider for weight loss treatment, relative to standard care: a modelled lifetime analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, N R; Carter, H; Schofield, D; Hauner, H; Jebb, S A; Colagiuri, S; Caterson, I D

    2014-08-01

    Because of the high prevalence of overweight and obesity, there is a need to identify cost-effective approaches for weight loss in primary care and community settings. To evaluate the long-term cost effectiveness of a commercial weight loss programme (Weight Watchers) (CP) compared with standard care (SC), as defined by national guidelines. A Markov model was developed to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) over the lifetime. The probabilities and quality-of-life utilities of outcomes were extrapolated from trial data using estimates from the published literature. A health sector perspective was adopted. Over a patient's lifetime, the CP resulted in an incremental cost saving of AUD 70 per patient, and an incremental 0.03 QALYs gained per patient. As such, the CP was found to be the dominant treatment, being more effective and less costly than SC (95% confidence interval: dominant to 6225 per QALY). Despite the CP delaying the onset of diabetes by ∼10 months, there was no significant difference in the incidence of type 2 diabetes, with the CP achieving <0.1% fewer cases than SC over the lifetime. The modelled results suggest that referral to community-based interventions may provide a highly cost-effective approach for those at high risk of weight-related comorbidities.

  10. Models for Battery Reliability and Lifetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G. H.; Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-03-01

    Models describing battery degradation physics are needed to more accurately understand how battery usage and next-generation battery designs can be optimized for performance and lifetime. Such lifetime models may also reduce the cost of battery aging experiments and shorten the time required to validate battery lifetime. Models for chemical degradation and mechanical stress are reviewed. Experimental analysis of aging data from a commercial iron-phosphate lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell elucidates the relative importance of several mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms.

  11. Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Miners, Alec; Smith, Colette J

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Estimates of healthcare costs associated with HIV infection would provide valuable insight for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of possible prevention interventions. We evaluate the additional lifetime healthcare cost incurred due to living with HIV. METHODS: We used a stochastic...... computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain...... as now. RESULTS: Based on a median (interquartile range) life expectancy of 71.5 (45.0-81.5) years for MSM in such a setting, the estimated mean lifetime cost of treating one person was £ 360,800 ($567,000 or € 480,000). With 3.5% discounting, it was £ 185,200 ($291,000 or € 246,000). The largest...

  12. Minimisation of a heat exchanger networks' cost over its lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Andreja; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír; Kravanja, Zdravko

    2012-01-01

    The optimal design of heat exchanger networks (HENs) has a great influence on the profitability of a plant. The optimisation is based on trade-offs between investment and operational cost. The full lifetime of the HEN and future utility prices have to be considered rather than optimising HEN on a yearly basis using current utility prices. Single-period optimisation and synthesis models for HENs reflect current utility prices only. These prices can fluctuate rather quickly and the optimal solution may be very different from a year to year. Deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) models for HEN synthesis have been developed to account for future price projections, where the utility cost coefficients are forecasted for the lifetime of the process. An optimal design is then determined for each projection and these designs are compared against a design with fixed current prices by applying the Incremental Net Present Value and other economic measures. In case studies the difference between utility consumption, using previous optimisation methods and new, were significant; e.g. in Case Study 2 the utility savings were 18.4% for hot and 32.6% for cold utility yielding an increase of the Net Present Value (NPV) by 7.8%. Highlights: ► Optimisation using forecasted utility prices can lead to higher energy recovery. ► Incremental Net Present Value when using future versus current prices is positive. ► The reduction of utilities increases with the process lifetime. ► Developed multi-period MINLP models for HEN account for future utility prices.

  13. Lifetime costs of lung transplantation : Estimation of incremental costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanEnckevort, PJ; Koopmanschap, MA; Tenvergert, EM; VanderBij, W; Rutten, FFH

    1997-01-01

    Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung

  14. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lawless, Jerald F

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

  15. A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    obsolete, lifetime buy is a mitigation approach that involves the purchase and storage of a part in a sufficient quantity to meet current and (expected...Buying Shoes NPS2015 Lifetime Buy Cost Inventory Cost Penalty Cost Disposition Cost Procurement Cost + + + = Lifetime Buy Cost Financial...Costs Inventory LTB Purchase Cost Excess Inventory Holding Cost Equal Run - Out Inventory of Other Parts Actual Demand Mgmt/Budget

  16. Cost-effectiveness of newborn circumcision in reducing lifetime HIV risk among U.S. males.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie L Sansom

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV incidence was substantially lower among circumcised versus uncircumcised heterosexual African men in three clinical trials. Based on those findings, we modeled the potential effect of newborn male circumcision on a U.S. male's lifetime risk of HIV, including associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years saved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given published estimates of U.S. males' lifetime HIV risk, we calculated the fraction of lifetime risk attributable to heterosexual behavior from 2005-2006 HIV surveillance data. We assumed 60% efficacy of circumcision in reducing heterosexually-acquired HIV over a lifetime, and varied efficacy in sensitivity analyses. We calculated differences in lifetime HIV risk, expected HIV treatment costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs among circumcised versus uncircumcised males. The main outcome measure was cost per HIV-related QALY saved. Circumcision reduced the lifetime HIV risk among all males by 15.7% in the base case analysis, ranging from 7.9% for white males to 20.9% for black males. Newborn circumcision was a cost-saving HIV prevention intervention for all, black and Hispanic males. The net cost of newborn circumcision per QALY saved was $87,792 for white males. Results were most sensitive to the discount rate, and circumcision efficacy and cost. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Newborn circumcision resulted in lower expected HIV-related treatment costs and a slight increase in QALYs. It reduced the 1.87% lifetime risk of HIV among all males by about 16%. The effect varied substantially by race and ethnicity. Racial and ethnic groups who could benefit the most from circumcision may have least access to it due to insurance coverage and state Medicaid policies, and these financial barriers should be addressed. More data on the long-term protective effect of circumcision on heterosexual males as well as on its efficacy in preventing HIV among MSM would be useful.

  17. Modelling the lifetime economic consequences of glaucoma in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippe Nordmann, Jean; Lafuma, Antoine; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2009-03-01

    To estimate the lifetime economic consequences of glaucoma in France. A Markov model estimated the average discounted outcome and cost of glaucoma treatment over a patient's lifetime. Clinical states were defined as first- to fourth-line drugs, no treatment, laser therapy, surgery, blindness and death. After each failure (always after the fourth-line drug) patients could receive either laser treatment or surgery followed by no treatment, or a new treatment. A societal perspective was adopted. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Discounted medical costs were euro 7,322 for ocular hypertension treatment (OHT) and euro 8,488 for a glaucoma patient. Social costs of OHT and glaucoma patients exceeded medical costs. First-line use of the most effective drug would reduce medical and social costs. Societal willingness to pay for the vision benefit would equal the medical costs. Treatment initiated with the most effective drug is a cost saving strategy. Public health decisions in glaucoma treatment should take a broad economic view embracing the lifetime duration of the disease. There is still a place both within and outside the healthcare system for therapeutic innovations with important economic consequences that bring high added value to patients.

  18. Lifetime Modeling of Thermal Barrier Coatings

    OpenAIRE

    Hille, T.S.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are applied in gas turbines to enhance their thermal efficiency by isolating the metallic components from the aggressive hot gas. TBC lifetime is limited by damage processes originating at internal interfaces, which may ultimately lead to delamination and spallation. In the present thesis constitutive models are presented for the coating components and the most detrimental failure mechanisms. To simulate the thermomechanical failure response, the numerical mode...

  19. Optimizing design of converters using power cycling lifetime models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus Ørndrup; Munk-Nielsen, Stig

    2015-01-01

    Converter power cycling lifetime depends heavily on converter operation point. A lifetime model of a single power module switched mode power supply with wide input voltage range is shown. A lifetime model is created using a power loss model, a thermal model and a model for power cycling capability...

  20. Toward a new spacecraft optimal design lifetime? Impact of marginal cost of durability and reduced launch price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snelgrove, Kailah B.; Saleh, Joseph Homer

    2016-10-01

    The average design lifetime of satellites continues to increase, in part due to the expectation that the satellite cost per operational day decreases monotonically with increased design lifetime. In this work, we challenge this expectation by revisiting the durability choice problem for spacecraft in the face of reduced launch price and under various cost of durability models. We first provide a brief overview of the economic thought on durability and highlight its limitations as they pertain to our problem (e.g., the assumption of zero marginal cost of durability). We then investigate the merging influence of spacecraft cost of durability and launch price, and we identify conditions that give rise cost-optimal design lifetimes that are shorter than the longest lifetime technically achievable. For example, we find that high costs of durability favor short design lifetimes, and that under these conditions the optimal choice is relatively robust to reduction in launch prices. By contrast, lower costs of durability favor longer design lifetimes, and the optimal choice is highly sensitive to reduction in launch price. In both cases, reduction in launch prices translates into reduction of the optimal design lifetime. Our results identify a number of situations for which satellite operators would be better served by spacecraft with shorter design lifetimes. Beyond cost issues and repeat purchases, other implications of long design lifetime include the increased risk of technological slowdown given the lower frequency of purchases and technology refresh, and the increased risk for satellite operators that the spacecraft will be technologically obsolete before the end of its life (with the corollary of loss of value and competitive advantage). We conclude with the recommendation that, should pressure to extend spacecraft design lifetime continue, satellite manufacturers should explore opportunities to lease their spacecraft to operators, or to take a stake in the ownership

  1. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  2. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-09-01

    Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

  3. Modeling lifetime of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Cristian

    2011-01-01

    The wind power industry is continuously developing bringing to the market larger and larger wind turbines. Nowadays reliability is more of a concern than in the past especially for the offshore wind turbines since the access to offshore wind turbines in case of failures is both costly and difficult....... Lifetime modeling of future large wind turbines is needed in order to make reliability predictions about these new wind turbines early in the design phase. By doing reliability prediction in the design phase the manufacturer can ensure that the new wind turbines will live long enough. This paper represents...... an overview of the different aspects of lifetime modeling of high power IGBTs in wind power applications. In the beginning, wind turbine reliability survey results are briefly reviewed in order to gain an insight into wind turbine subassembly failure rates and associated downtimes. After that the most common...

  4. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  5. The total lifetime health cost savings of smoking cessation to society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Gitte Susanne; Prescott, Eva; Sørensen, Thorkild I A

    2005-01-01

    Smoking cessation has major immediate and long-term health benefits. However, ex-smokers' total lifetime health costs and continuing smokers' costs remain uncompared, and hence the economic savings of smoking cessation to society have not been determined.......Smoking cessation has major immediate and long-term health benefits. However, ex-smokers' total lifetime health costs and continuing smokers' costs remain uncompared, and hence the economic savings of smoking cessation to society have not been determined....

  6. Lifetime Cost-Effectiveness of Calcineurin Inhibitor Withdrawal After De Novo Renal Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnshaw, Stephanie R.; Graham, Christopher N.; Irish, William D.; Sato, Reiko; Schnitzler, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    After renal transplantation, immunosuppressive regimens associated with high short-term survival rates are not necessarily associated with high long-term survival rates, suggesting that regimens may need to be optimized over time. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) withdrawal from a sirolimus-based immunosuppressive regimen may maximize the likelihood of long-term graft and patient survival by minimizing CNI-associated nephrotoxicity. In this study, a lifetime Markov model was created to compare the cost-effectiveness of a sirolimus-based CNI withdrawl regimen (sirolimus plus steroids) with other common CNI-containing regimens in adult de novo renal transplantation patients. Long-term graft survival was estimated by renal function and data from published studies and the US transplant registry, including short- and long-term outcomes, utility weights, and health-state costs were incorporated. Drug costs were based on average daily consumption and wholesale acquisition costs. The model suggests that treatment with sirolimus plus steroids is more efficacious and less costly than regimens consisting of a CNI, mycophenolate mofetil, and steroids; therefore, CNI withdrawal not only shows potential for long-term clinical benefits but also is expected to be cost-saving over a patient's life compared with the most commonly prescribed CNI-containing regimens. PMID:18562571

  7. Lifetime Modeling of Thermal Barrier Coatings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hille, T.S.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are applied in gas turbines to enhance their thermal efficiency by isolating the metallic components from the aggressive hot gas. TBC lifetime is limited by damage processes originating at internal interfaces, which may ultimately lead to delamination and spallation.

  8. Lifetime health effects and costs of diabetes treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.W. Niessen (Louis Wilhelmus); R. Dijkstra; R.C.W. Hutubessy (Raymond); G.E.H.M. Rutten (Guy); A.F. Casparie (Anton)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: This article presents cost-effectiveness analyses of the major diabetes interventions as formulated in the revised Dutch guidelines for diabetes type 2 patients in primary and secondary care. The analyses consider two types of care: diabetes control and the

  9. Lifetime of {sup 44}Ti as probe for supernova models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goerres, J.; Meissner, J.; Schatz, H.; Stech, E.; Tischhauser, P.; Wiescher, M. [Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN (United States); Bazin, D.; Harkewicz, R.; Hellstroem, M.; Sherrill, B.; Steiner, M. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States); Boyd, R.N. [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Buchmann, L. [TRIUMF, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Hartmann, D.H. [Clemson Univ., Clemson, SC (United States); Hinnefeld, J.D. [Indiana Univ. South Bend, South Bend, IN (United States)

    1998-06-01

    The recent observation of {sup 44}Ti radioactivity in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory allows the determination of the absolute amount of {sup 44}Ti. This provides a test for current supernova models. The main uncertainty is the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti. We report a new measurement of the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti applying a novel technique. A mixed radioactive beam containing {sup 44}Ti as well as {sup 22}Na was implanted and the resulting {gamma}-activity was measured. This allowed the determination of the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti relative to the lifetime of {sup 22}Na, {tau} = (87.0 {+-} 1.9) y. With this lifetime, the {sup 44}Ti abundance agrees with theoretical predictions within the remaining observational uncertainties. (orig.)

  10. Costly infidelity: low lifetime fitness of extra-pair offspring in a passerine bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Yu-Hsun; Schroeder, Julia; Winney, Isabel; Burke, Terry; Nakagawa, Shinichi

    2014-10-01

    Extra-pair copulation (EPC) is widespread in socially monogamous species, but its evolutionary benefits remain controversial. Indirect genetic benefit hypotheses postulate that females engage in EPC to produce higher quality extra-pair offspring (EPO) than within-pair offspring (WPO). In contrast, the sexual conflict hypothesis posits that EPC is beneficial to males but not to females. Thus, under the sexual conflict hypothesis, EPO are predicted to be no fitter than WPO. We tested these two hypotheses in a 12-year dataset with complete life-history and pedigree information from an isolated island population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We compared fitness components of EPO and two types of WPO: (1) WPO from genetically polyandrous "unfaithful" mothers, and (2) WPO from genetically monogamous mothers. We found that all three groups of offspring had similar probabilities of hatching and nestling survival. Unexpectedly, EPO had the lowest probability of recruiting into the breeding population and the lowest lifetime reproductive output. Our results indicate that EPO incurred indirect genetic costs, rather than benefits, which is contrary to indirect benefit models. Importantly, the indirect costs we observed are also underappreciated in current sexual conflict models. Our results call for improved theoretical frameworks that incorporate indirect costs by extending current sexual conflict models. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Lifetime-Aware Cloud Data Centers: Models and Performance Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Chiaraviglio

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a model to evaluate the server lifetime in cloud data centers (DCs. In particular, when the server power level is decreased, the failure rate tends to be reduced as a consequence of the limited number of components powered on. However, the variation between the different power states triggers a failure rate increase. We therefore consider these two effects in a server lifetime model, subject to an energy-aware management policy. We then evaluate our model in a realistic case study. Our results show that the impact on the server lifetime is far from negligible. As a consequence, we argue that a lifetime-aware approach should be pursued to decide how and when to apply a power state change to a server.

  12. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Kim, Gi-heon; Shi, Ying; Pesaran, Ahmad

    2015-06-15

    It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

  13. An Analysis of Young Driver Crash Types and the Associated Lifetime Care Cost in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckis, Samantha; Lenné, Mike G; Fitzharris, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The elevated crash involvement rate of young drivers is well documented. Given the higher crash risk of young drivers and the need for innovative policy and programs, it remains important to fully understand the type of crashes young drivers are involved in, and knowledge of the lifetime care cost of crashes can support effective policy development. The aim of this article is to document the number and type of young driver crashes, as well as the associated lifetime care cost over a 9-year period (2005-2013) in Victoria, Australia. In Victoria, Australia, the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) has legislated responsibility for road safety and the care of persons injured in road crashes, irrespective of fault. TAC claims data for the period 2005-2013 were used to document the number and type of young driver crashes. Lifetime care costs (past and future payment liabilities) were calculated by Taylor Fry actuarial consultancy. License and population data were used to define the crash involvement rate of young drivers. Over the 9-year period, 16,817 claims were lodged to the TAC by drivers 18-25 years of age following a crash. There were 646 fewer drivers aged 18-25 killed and injured in 2013, compared to 2005, representing an unadjusted change of -28.7% (-29.8% males; -28.4% females). The total lifetime care cost of young drivers killed and injured in Victoria for the period 2005-2013 was estimated to be AU$634 million (US$493 million). Differences between males and females, single- and multivehicle crashes, and fatalities and injuries were found to be statistically significant. Run-off-road crashes and crashes from opposing direction were overrepresented in the lifetime care costs for young driver claimants. Twenty-eight injured drivers were classified as high-severity claims. These 28 claimants require additional long-term care, which was estimated to be AU$219 million; of these 28, 24 were male (85.7%). The long-term care costs for these 28 drivers (0

  14. Modeling and optimization of membrane lifetime in dead-end ultra filtration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zondervan, Edwin; Roffel, Brian

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a membrane lifetime model is developed and experimentally validated. The lifetime model is based on the Weibull probability density function. The lifetime model can be used to determine an unambiguous characteristic membrane lifetime. Experimental results showed that membrane lifetime

  15. Lifetime cost-utility analyses of deferasirox in beta-thalassaemia patients with chronic iron overload: a UK perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnon, Jonathan; Tolley, Keith; Vieira, Joao; Chandiwana, David

    2012-12-01

    Regular blood transfusions for beta-thalassaemia patients lead to the accumulation of iron deposits in the body. In order to remove such deposits, iron chelation therapy is required. Subcutaneously administered deferoxamine has been the gold standard chelation therapy for over 40 years. Deferasirox is a newer chelation therapy that is taken orally once daily. The objective of this study was to estimate the long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with deferoxamine and deferasirox in a cohort of transfusion-dependent beta-thalassaemia patients from a UK health service perspective. A 50-year annual cycle state transition model comprised three core health states: alive without cardiac complications, alive with cardiac complications, and dead, as well as representing other chronic complications of iron overload: diabetes, hypogonadism, hypoparathyroidism and hypothyroidism. The model was calibrated to identify sets of convergent input parameter values that predicted observed overall survival by mean lifetime compliance with chelation therapy. A pivotal non-inferiority trial informed the main estimates of the effectiveness of deferasirox, which were applied to the calibrated model. Using cost values for the year 2011, costs and utilities were summed over patients' lifetimes to estimate lifetime costs and QALY gains. Mean lifetime treatment costs for patients receiving deferoxamine were £70,000 higher than deferasirox. Drug acquisition costs were £100,000 higher for deferasirox, but administration costs associated with deferoxamine were £170,000 higher. Higher compliance associated with oral deferasirox administration led to fewer complications. Combined with the quality-of-life effects of an oral mode of administration, an average gain of 4.85 QALYs for deferasirox was estimated. In the base case, deferasirox dominates deferoxamine, i.e., costs less and patients gain more QALYs. The key parameter is the proportion of deferoxamine patients

  16. The lifetime costs of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, D; Dee, A; Perry, I J

    2018-04-01

    Research into lifetime costs of obesity in childhood is growing. This review synthesizes that knowledge. A computerized search of the international literature since 2000 was conducted. Mean total lifetime healthcare and productivity costs were estimated and inflated to 2014 Irish euros. This resulted in 13 published articles. The methodology used in these studies varied widely, and only one study estimated both healthcare and productivity costs. Cognizant of this heterogeneity, the mean total lifetime cost of a child or adolescent with obesity was €149,206 (range, €129,410 to €178,933) for a boy and €148,196 (range, €136,576 to €173,842) for a girl. This was divided into an average of €16,229 (range, €6,580 to €35,810) in healthcare costs and €132,977 (range, €122,830 to €143,123) in productivity losses for boys and €19,636 (range, €8,016 to €45,283) and €128,560, respectively, for girls. Income penalty accounted for the greater part of productivity costs, amounting to €97,118 (range, €86,971 to €107,264) per male adolescent with obesity and €126,108 per female adolescent. Healthcare costs and income penalty appear greater in girls while costs because of workdays lost seem greater in boys. There is proportionality between body mass index and costs. Productivity costs are greater than healthcare costs. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  17. Modeling churn using customer lifetime value

    OpenAIRE

    Glady, Nicolas; Baesens, Bart; Croux, Christophe

    2009-01-01

    The definition and modeling of customer loyalty have been central issues in customer relationship management since many years. Recent papers propose solutions to detect customers that are becoming less loyal, also called churners. The churner status is then defined as a function of the volume of commercial transactions. In the context of a Belgian retail financial service company, our first contribution is to redefine the notion of customer loyalty by considering it from a customer-centric vi...

  18. Lifetime injury prevention: the sport profile model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webborn, Nick

    2012-03-01

    Participation in sporting activities carries an injury risk. Conversely, the increased awareness that physical inactivity is a major risk factor for disease has led government agencies and the medical community to encourage increased levels of physical activity. Many people will achieve this through participation in sport. Injury inevitably leads to a reduction in participation on a temporary or permanent basis, but the injury experience may also influence the lifelong physical activity behaviour. Few studies adequately examine the possible long-term consequences of sport participation after the competitive period has been completed, but by understanding the patterns of injuries in different sports one test can develop strategies to prevent and better manage the conditions that occur and promote lifelong physical activity. There is a need to develop models of understanding of injury risk at different life phases and levels of participation in a specific sport. The risk assessment of sport participation has to be relevant to a particular sport, the level of participation, skill, age and potential future health consequences. This article describes a sport-specific model which will improve guidance for coaches and healthcare professionals. It poses questions for sports physicians, healthcare providers, educators and for governing bodies of sports to address in a systematic fashion. Additionally the governing body, as an employer, will need to meet the requirements for risk assessment for professional sport and its ethical responsibility to the athlete.

  19. Mathematical Model of Lifetime Duration at Insulation of Electrical Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Răduca

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This paper present a mathematical model of lifetime duration at hydro generator stator winding insulation when at hydro generator can be appear the damage regimes. The estimation to make by take of the programming and non-programming revisions, through the introduction and correlation of the new defined notions.

  20. Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model

  1. The use of lifetime functions in the optimization of interventions on existing bridges considering maintenance and failure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Seung-Ie [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: yangsione@dreamwiz.com; Frangopol, Dan M. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: dan.frangopol@colorado.edu; Kawakami, Yoriko [Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation, Kobe Maintenance Department, 16-1 Shinko-cho Chuo-ku Kobe City, Hyogo, 650-0041 (Japan)]. E-mail: yoriko-kawakami@hepc.go.jp; Neves, Luis C. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: lneves@civil.uminho.pt

    2006-06-15

    In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions.

  2. The use of lifetime functions in the optimization of interventions on existing bridges considering maintenance and failure costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Seung-Ie; Frangopol, Dan M.; Kawakami, Yoriko; Neves, Luis C.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions

  3. Cost per QALY (quality-adjusted life year and lifetime cost of prolonged mechanical ventilation in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Chuan Hung

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV are increasing and producing financial burdens worldwide. This study determines the cost per QALY (quality-adjusted life year, out-of-pocket expenses, and lifetime costs for PMV patients stratified by underlying diseases and cognition levels. METHODS: A nationwide sample of 50,481 patients with continual mechanical ventilation for more than 21 days was collected during 1997-2007. After stratifying the patients according to specific diagnoses, a latent class analysis (LCA was performed to categorise PMV patients with multiple co-morbidities into several homogeneous groups. The survival functions were estimated for individual groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and extrapolated to 300 months through a semi-parametric method. The survival functions were adjusted using an EQ-5D utility value derived from a convenience sample of 142 PMV patients to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALE. Another convenience sample of 165 patients was used to estimate the out-of-pocket expenses. The lifetime expenditures paid by the single-payer National Health Insurance (NHI system and patients' families were estimated by multiplying average monthly expenditures by the survival probabilities and summing the values over lifetime. RESULTS: PMV therapy costs more than 100,000 U.S. dollars (USD per QALY for all patients with poor cognition. For patients with partial cognition, PMV therapy costs less than 56,000 USD per QALY for those with liver cirrhosis, intracranial or spinal cord injuries, and 57,000-69,000 USD for patients with multiple co-morbidities under age of 65. The average lifetime cost of PMV was usually below 56,000 USD. The out-of-pocket expenses were often more than one-third of the total cost of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: PMV treatment for patients with poor cognition would cost more than 5 times Taiwan's GDP (gross domestic products, or less cost-effective. The out

  4. Cost per QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Year) and Lifetime Cost of Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Mei-Chuan; Lu, Hsin-Ming; Chen, Likwang; Lin, Ming-Shian; Chen, Cheng-Ren; Yu, Chong-Jen; Wang, Jung-Der

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) are increasing and producing financial burdens worldwide. This study determines the cost per QALY (quality-adjusted life year), out-of-pocket expenses, and lifetime costs for PMV patients stratified by underlying diseases and cognition levels. Methods A nationwide sample of 50,481 patients with continual mechanical ventilation for more than 21 days was collected during 1997–2007. After stratifying the patients according to specific diagnoses, a latent class analysis (LCA) was performed to categorise PMV patients with multiple co-morbidities into several homogeneous groups. The survival functions were estimated for individual groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and extrapolated to 300 months through a semi-parametric method. The survival functions were adjusted using an EQ-5D utility value derived from a convenience sample of 142 PMV patients to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALE). Another convenience sample of 165 patients was used to estimate the out-of-pocket expenses. The lifetime expenditures paid by the single-payer National Health Insurance (NHI) system and patients' families were estimated by multiplying average monthly expenditures by the survival probabilities and summing the values over lifetime. Results PMV therapy costs more than 100,000 U.S. dollars (USD) per QALY for all patients with poor cognition. For patients with partial cognition, PMV therapy costs less than 56,000 USD per QALY for those with liver cirrhosis, intracranial or spinal cord injuries, and 57,000–69,000 USD for patients with multiple co-morbidities under age of 65. The average lifetime cost of PMV was usually below 56,000 USD. The out-of-pocket expenses were often more than one-third of the total cost of treatment. Conclusions PMV treatment for patients with poor cognition would cost more than 5 times Taiwan's GDP (gross domestic products), or less cost-effective. The out-of-pocket expenses

  5. Dynamical modeling and lifetime analysis of geostationary transfer orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yue; Gurfil, Pini

    2016-11-01

    The dynamics and lifetime reduction of geostationary transfer orbits (GTOs) are of great importance to space debris mitigation. The orbital dynamics, subjected to a complex interplay of multiple perturbations, are complicated and sensitive to the initial conditions and model parameters. In this paper, a simple but effective non-singular orbital dynamics model in terms of Milankovitch elements is derived. The orbital dynamics, which include the Earth oblateness, luni-solar perturbations, and atmospheric drag, are averaged over the orbital motion of the GTO object, or, as needed, also over the orbital motions of the Moon and Sun, to eliminate the short-period terms. After the averaging process, the effect of the atmospheric drag assumes a simple analytical form. The averaged orbital model is verified through a numerical simulation compared with commercial orbit propagators. GTO lifetime reduction by using the luni-solar perturbations is studied. It is shown that the long-period luni-solar perturbation is induced by the precession of the GTO orbital plane and apsidal line, whereas the short-period perturbation is induced by the periodic luni-solar orbital motions. The long- and short-period perturbations are isolated and studied separately, and their global distribution with respect to the orbital geometry is given. The desired initial orbital geometry with a short orbital lifetime is found and verified by a numerical simulation.

  6. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  7. Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atcharawadi Thong-On

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG welding of Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo tube to carbon steel pipe with chromium-containing filler. The cost of production could be reduced by the use of low cost material such as carbon steel pipe for boiler header. The effect of chromium content on corrosion behavior of the weld was greater than that of the microstructure. The lifetime of the welded boiler can be increased by improvement of mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone.

  8. Determining of the Optimal Device Lifetime using Mathematical Renewal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežo Dušan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Paper deals with the operations and equipment of the machine in the process of organizing production. During operation machines require maintenance and repairs, while in case of failure or machine wears it is necessary to replace them with new ones. For the process of replacement of old machines with new ones the term renewal is used. Qualitative aspects of the renewal process observe renewal theory, which is mainly based on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. Devices lifetimes are closely related to the renewal of the devices. Presented article is focused on mathematical deduction of mathematical renewal models and determining optimal lifetime of the devices from the aspect of expenditures on renewal process.

  9. Multi-objective and Perishable Fuzzy Inventory Models Having Weibull Life-time With Time Dependent Demand, Demand Dependent Production and Time Varying Holding Cost: A Possibility/Necessity Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Savita; Mondal, Seema Sarkar

    2010-10-01

    A multi-objective inventory model of deteriorating item has been developed with Weibull rate of decay, time dependent demand, demand dependent production, time varying holding cost allowing shortages in fuzzy environments for non- integrated and integrated businesses. Here objective is to maximize the profit from different deteriorating items with space constraint. The impreciseness of inventory parameters and goals for non-integrated business has been expressed by linear membership functions. The compromised solutions are obtained by different fuzzy optimization methods. To incorporate the relative importance of the objectives, the different cardinal weights crisp/fuzzy have been assigned. The models are illustrated with numerical examples and results of models with crisp/fuzzy weights are compared. The result for the model assuming them to be integrated business is obtained by using Generalized Reduced Gradient Method (GRG). The fuzzy integrated model with imprecise inventory cost is formulated to optimize the possibility necessity measure of fuzzy goal of the objective function by using credibility measure of fuzzy event by taking fuzzy expectation. The results of crisp/fuzzy integrated model are illustrated with numerical examples and results are compared.

  10. A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    manufacturing demand for the part, however, manufacturing demand could be included as well. Figure 3 - Valuation at an arbitrary buy -to time, Tbt. ESCML...fixed cost of the manufacturing and testing facilities (independent of the initial buy size of wafers) has to be added to the strike price in the...Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts By: Peter Sandborn and Navid Goudarzi 18 56 U N IV ERSITY O F M A R Y L A N D UMD-LM-16-011 Electronic

  11. Cost model for biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Sanchez, M Beatriz; Lopez-Valeiras, Ernesto; Morente, Manuel M; Fernández Lago, Orlando

    2013-10-01

    Current economic conditions and budget constraints in publicly funded biomedical research have brought about a renewed interest in analyzing the cost and economic viability of research infrastructures. However, there are no proposals for specific cost accounting models for these types of organizations in the international scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to present the basis of a cost analysis model useful for any biobank regardless of the human biological samples that it stores for biomedical research. The development of a unique cost model for biobanks can be a complicated task due to the diversity of the biological samples they store. Different types of samples (DNA, tumor tissues, blood, serum, etc.) require different production processes. Nonetheless, the common basic steps of the production process can be identified. Thus, the costs incurred in each step can be analyzed in detail to provide cost information. Six stages and four cost objects were obtained by taking the production processes of biobanks belonging to the Spanish National Biobank Network as a starting point. Templates and examples are provided to help managers to identify and classify the costs involved in their own biobanks to implement the model. The application of this methodology will provide accurate information on cost objects, along with useful information to give an economic value to the stored samples, to analyze the efficiency of the production process and to evaluate the viability of some sample collections.

  12. Lifetime Cost-Effectiveness of Calcineurin Inhibitor Withdrawal After De Novo Renal Transplantation

    OpenAIRE

    Earnshaw, Stephanie R.; Graham, Christopher N.; Irish, William D.; Sato, Reiko; Schnitzler, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    After renal transplantation, immunosuppressive regimens associated with high short-term survival rates are not necessarily associated with high long-term survival rates, suggesting that regimens may need to be optimized over time. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) withdrawal from a sirolimus-based immunosuppressive regimen may maximize the likelihood of long-term graft and patient survival by minimizing CNI-associated nephrotoxicity. In this study, a lifetime Markov model was created to compare the...

  13. Methods for improving the lifetime performance of organic photovoltaics with low-costing encapsulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannouli, Myrsini; Drakonakis, Vasileios M; Savva, Achilleas; Eleftheriou, Polyvios; Florides, Georgios; Choulis, Stelios A

    2015-04-27

    Recent years have seen considerable advances in organic photovoltaics (OPVs), most notably a significant increase in their efficiency, from around 4 % to over 10 %. The stability of these devices, however, continues to remain an issue that needs to be resolved to enable their commercialization. This review discusses the main degradation processes of OPVs and recent methods that help to increase device stability and lifetime. One of the most effective steps that can be taken to increase the lifetime of OPVs is their encapsulation, which protects them from atmospheric degradation. Efficient encapsulation is essential for long-term device performance, but it is equally important for the commercialization of OPVs to strike a balance between achieving the maximum device protection possible and using low-cost processing for their encapsulation. Various encapsulation techniques are discussed herein, with emphasis on their cost effectiveness and their overall suitability for commercial applications. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke

    2010-06-11

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair of species is denoted by an interaction coefficient. At each time step, a new species is introduced to the system with randomly assigned interaction coefficients. If the sum of the coefficients, which we call the fitness of a species, is negative, the species goes extinct. The species-lifetime distribution is found to be well characterized by a stretched exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. This profile agrees not only with more realistic population dynamics models but also with fossil records. We also find that an age-independent and inversely diversity-dependent mortality, which is confirmed in the simulation, is a key mechanism accounting for the distribution. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

  15. Lifetime of molecules in a dark cloud model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandell, G.

    1978-01-01

    An analysis of the lifetime of the molecules CO, OH, CH, H 2 CO and NH 3 in interstellar dust clouds (A 8m, n 10 4 cm -3 ) is presented. The study is a continuation of an earlier publication (Sandell and Mattila, 1975) and the work on photodissociation (and photo-ionization) is based on the spherical homogeneous dust cloud model presented therein. In the present study, however, the recent albedo curve by Lillie and Witt (1976) is adopted, and several assumptions are made on the run of the albedo curve below 0.15μm, where, so far, no measurements of the albedo exist. The present work also includes the opacity due to molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon (C). (orig.) [de

  16. Lifetime cost of meningococcal disease in France: Scenarios of severe meningitis and septicemia with purpura fulminans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bénard, Stève; Wright, Claire; Voisine, Jimmy; Olivier, Catherine W; Gaudelus, Joël

    2016-01-01

    Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is life-threatening and can result in severe sequelae. In France, no data have been published on the costs of severe IMD cases. Two realistic scenarios were developed with national experts (clinicians and social workers): a 6-year-old child with purpura fulminans with amputation of both legs below the knee (case A) and a 3-year-old with meningitis and severe neurological sequelae (case B). Additional scenarios included other typical sequelae of IMD such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), profound deafness and epilepsy. Data on healthcare, disability, educational and other resource use were obtained from experts and families of patients with similar sequelae. Unit costs (2013) were mainly obtained from the literature and the National Health Insurance (NHI). Time horizon was based on life expectancies of patients (77 and 55 years, respectively). A 4% discount rate decreasing to 2% after 30 years was applied. Costs are presented from the perspective of the NHI, publicly funded organizations and patients' families or their private health insurances. purpura fulminans with amputations is associated with a lifelong discounted cost of €768,875. Adding CKD doubles the amount (€1,480,545). Meningitis with severe neuro-cognitive sequelae results in a lifelong discounted cost of €1,924,475. Adding profound deafness and epilepsy slightly increases the total cost (€2,267,251). The first year is the most expensive in both scenarios (€166,890 and €160,647 respectively). The main cost drivers for each scenario are prostheses and child/adult stays in healthcare facilities, respectively. Overall, patients' families or his private insurance had to pay around 13% of total cost (101,833€ and 258,817€, respectively). This study fills a gap in the body of knowledge on IMD sequelae care and lifetime costs in France. The potentially high economic burden of IMD, in addition to its physical, psychological and social burden, reinforces the

  17. LIFETIME PREDICTION FOR MODEL 9975 O-RINGS IN KAMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.

    2009-11-24

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is currently storing plutonium materials in the K-Area Materials Storage (KAMS) facility. The materials are packaged per the DOE 3013 Standard and transported and stored in KAMS in Model 9975 shipping packages, which include double containment vessels sealed with dual O-rings made of Parker Seals compound V0835-75 (based on Viton{reg_sign} GLT). The outer O-ring of each containment vessel is credited for leaktight containment per ANSI N14.5. O-ring service life depends on many factors, including the failure criterion, environmental conditions, overall design, fabrication quality and assembly practices. A preliminary life prediction model has been developed for the V0835-75 O-rings in KAMS. The conservative model is based primarily on long-term compression stress relaxation (CSR) experiments and Arrhenius accelerated-aging methodology. For model development purposes, seal lifetime is defined as a 90% loss of measurable sealing force. Thus far, CSR experiments have only reached this target level of degradation at temperatures {ge} 300 F. At lower temperatures, relaxation values are more tolerable. Using time-temperature superposition principles, the conservative model predicts a service life of approximately 20-25 years at a constant seal temperature of 175 F. This represents a maximum payload package at a constant ambient temperature of 104 F, the highest recorded in KAMS to date. This is considered a highly conservative value as such ambient temperatures are only reached on occasion and for short durations. The presence of fiberboard in the package minimizes the impact of such temperature swings, with many hours to several days required for seal temperatures to respond proportionately. At 85 F ambient, a more realistic but still conservative value, bounding seal temperatures are reduced to {approx}158 F, with an estimated seal lifetime of {approx}35-45 years. The actual service life for O-rings in a maximum wattage package likely lies

  18. Evaluation of Battery Lifetimes using Inhomogeneous Markov Reward Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloth, L.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Jongerden, M.R.

    2006-01-01

    The usage of mobile devices like cell phones, navigation systems, or laptop computers, is limited by the lifetime of the included batteries. This lifetimes depends naturally on the rate at which energy is consumed, however, it also depends on the usage pattern of the battery. Continuous drawing of a

  19. SUNSPOT AND STARSPOT LIFETIMES IN A TURBULENT EROSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvinenko, Yuri E. [Department of Mathematics, University of Waikato, P. B. 3105, Hamilton (New Zealand); Wheatland, M. S. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

    2017-01-10

    Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D : an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B {sup −ν} and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B . Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “super fast” diffusion. For the step-function case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.

  20. The implications of plant design on the life-time costs for nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macphee, D.S.; Hexter, B.C.; Young, M.P.; Wilson, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Utilising the experience gained during many years of design and project management of nuclear plant, BNFL is now approaching the final stages of the construction and commissioning of the Sellafield MOX Plant (SMP) in the UK. The paper uses the SMP project to highlight the benefits of these experiences, in particular addressing the implications of the approach to plant design on life time costs. In addition to providing BNFL with a state of the art, commercial scale MOX fuel fabrication facility, the construction of this 120 tHM/yr facility, which is currently in the advanced stages of commissioning, represents a significant demonstration of the design and project management skills of BNFL Engineering Ltd. As well as meeting the main process requirements, the plant design incorporates the highest standards of safety, together with input from the future plant operators and potential customers. As befits a commercial scale plutonium handling facility, SMP also incorporates material accountancy and security provisions that will meet all international requirements. Design, construction and commissioning of this complex and highly automated plant, has benefited from a totally integrated approach to design and documentation that considers not only project implementation but also overall lifetime costs. In addition, project management techniques, developed over many years of major project construction at Sellafield, have been utilised in order to ensure successful project implementation against a background of significant technical challenge and 'fast track' timescales. (author)

  1. Alpine ibex males grow large horns at no survival cost for most of their lifetime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toïgo, Carole; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Loison, Anne

    2013-12-01

    Large horns or antlers require a high energy allocation to produce and carry both physiological and social reproductive costs. Following the principle of energy allocation that implies trade-offs among fitness components, growing large weapons early in life should thus reduce future growth and survival. Evidence for such costs is ambiguous, however, partly because individual heterogeneity can counterbalance trade-offs. Individuals with larger horns or antlers may be of better quality and thus have a greater capacity to survive. We investigated trade-offs between male early horn growth and future horn growth, baseline mortality, onset of actuarial senescence, and rate of ageing in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex) population. Horn growth of males in early life was positively correlated to their horn length throughout their entire life. Cohort variation and individual heterogeneity both accounted for among-individual variation in horn length, suggesting both long-lasting effects of early life conditions and individual-specific horn growth trajectories. Early horn growth did not influence annual survival until 12 years of age, indicating that males do not invest in horn growth at survival costs over most of their lifetime. However, males with fast-growing horns early in life tended to have lower survival at very old ages. Individual heterogeneity, along with the particular life-history tactic of male ibex (weak participation to the rut until an old age after which they burn out in high mating investment), are likely to explain why the expected trade-off between horn growth and survival does not show up, at least until very old ages.

  2. Estimating the lifetime economic burden of stroke according to the age of onset in South Korea: a cost of illness study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suh Hae Sun

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recently-observed trend towards younger stroke patients in Korea raises economic concerns, including erosion of the workforce. We compared per-person lifetime costs of stroke according to the age of stroke onset from the Korean societal perspective. Methods A state-transition Markov model consisted of three health states ('post primary stroke event', 'alive post stroke', and 'dead' was developed to simulate the natural history of stroke. The transition probabilities for fatal and non-fatal recurrent stroke by age and gender and for non-stroke causes of death were derived from the national epidemiologic data of the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services and data from the Danish Monitoring Trends in Cardiovascular Disease study. We used an incidence-based approach to estimate the long-term costs of stroke. The model captured stroke-related costs including costs within the health sector, patients' out-of-pocket costs outside the health sector, and costs resulting from loss of productivity due to morbidity and premature death using a human capital approach. Average insurance-covered costs occurring within the health sector were estimated from the National Health Insurance claims database. Other costs were estimated based on the national epidemiologic data and literature. All costs are presented in 2008 Korean currency values (Korean won = KRW. Results The lifetime costs of stroke were estimated to be: 200.7, 81.9, and 16.4 million Korean won (1,200 KRW is approximately equal to one US dollar for men who suffered a first stroke at age 45, 55 and 65 years, respectively, and 75.7, 39.2, and 19.3 million KRW for women at the same age. While stroke occurring among Koreans aged 45 to 64 years accounted for only 30% of the total disease incidence, this age group incurred 75% of the total national lifetime costs of stroke. Conclusions A higher lifetime burden and increasing incidence of stroke among younger Koreans

  3. Recording Lifetime Behavior and Movement in an Invertebrate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Sige; Liedo, Pablo; Altamirano-Robles, Leopoldo; Cruz-Enriquez, Janeth; Morice, Amy; Ingram, Donald K.; Kaub, Kevin; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Carey, James R.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of lifetime behavioral changes is essential for understanding aging and aging-related diseases. However, such studies are scarce partly due to the lack of efficient tools. Here we describe and provide proof of concept for a stereo vision system that classifies and sequentially records at an extremely fine scale six different behaviors (resting, micro-movement, walking, flying, feeding and drinking) and the within-cage (3D) location of individual tephritid fruit flies by time-of-day throughout their lives. Using flies fed on two different diets, full sugar-yeast and sugar-only diets, we report for the first time their behavioral changes throughout their lives at a high resolution. We have found that the daily activity peaks at the age of 15–20 days and then gradually declines with age for flies on both diets. However, the overall daily activity is higher for flies on sugar-only diet than those on the full diet. Flies on sugar-only diet show a stronger diurnal localization pattern with higher preference to staying on the top of the cage during the period of light-off when compared to flies on the full diet. Clustering analyses of age-specific behavior patterns reveal three distinct young, middle-aged and old clusters for flies on each of the two diets. The middle-aged groups for flies on sugar-only diet consist of much younger age groups when compared to flies on full diet. This technology provides research opportunities for using a behavioral informatics approach for understanding different ways in which behavior, movement, and aging in model organisms are mutually affecting. PMID:21559058

  4. Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

    2017-09-15

    Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

  5. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  6. Two-Year and Lifetime Cost-Effectiveness of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Versus 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohler, Racquel E. [Department of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Sheets, Nathan C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina Hospitals, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Wheeler, Stephanie B. [Department of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Nutting, Chris [Royal Marsden Hospital, London, United Kindom (United Kingdom); Hall, Emma [Clinical Trials and Statistics Unit, Division of Clinical Studies, Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Chera, Bhishamjit S., E-mail: bchera@med.unc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina Hospitals, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To assess the cost-effectiveness of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) in the treatment of head-and neck-cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: We used a Markov model to simulate radiation therapy-induced xerostomia and dysphagia in a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old HNC patients. Model input parameters were derived from PARSPORT (CRUK/03/005) patient-level trial data and quality-of-life and Medicare cost data from published literature. We calculated average incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the US health care perspective as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and compared our ICERs with current cost-effectiveness standards whereby treatment comparators less than $50,000 per QALY gained are considered cost-effective. Results: In the first 2 years after initial treatment, IMRT is not cost-effective compared with 3D-CRT, given an average ICER of $101,100 per QALY gained. However, over 15 years (remaining lifetime on the basis of average life expectancy of a 65-year-old), IMRT is more cost-effective at $34,523 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Although HNC patients receiving IMRT will likely experience reduced xerostomia and dysphagia symptoms, the small quality-of-life benefit associated with IMRT is not cost-effective in the short term but may be cost-effective over a patient's lifetime, assuming benefits persist over time and patients are healthy and likely to live for a sustained period. Additional data quantifying the long-term benefits of IMRT, however, are needed.

  7. Computer programs for capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes for laser fusion and other advanced technology facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergrass, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    Three FORTRAN programs, CAPITAL, VENTURE, and INDEXER, have been developed to automate computations used in assessing the economic viability of proposed or conceptual laser fusion and other advanced-technology facilities, as well as conventional projects. The types of calculations performed by these programs are, respectively, capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes. The codes permit these three topics to be addressed with considerable sophistication commensurate with user requirements and available data

  8. Profit-Based Model Selection for Customer Retention Using Individual Customer Lifetime Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Óskarsdóttir, María; Baesens, Bart; Vanthienen, Jan

    2018-03-01

    The goal of customer retention campaigns, by design, is to add value and enhance the operational efficiency of businesses. For organizations that strive to retain their customers in saturated, and sometimes fast moving, markets such as the telecommunication and banking industries, implementing customer churn prediction models that perform well and in accordance with the business goals is vital. The expected maximum profit (EMP) measure is tailored toward this problem by taking into account the costs and benefits of a retention campaign and estimating its worth for the organization. Unfortunately, the measure assumes fixed and equal customer lifetime value (CLV) for all customers, which has been shown to not correspond well with reality. In this article, we extend the EMP measure to take into account the variability in the lifetime values of customers, thereby basing it on individual characteristics. We demonstrate how to incorporate the heterogeneity of CLVs when CLVs are known, when their prior distribution is known, and when neither is known. By taking into account individual CLVs, our proposed approach of measuring model performance gives novel insights when deciding on a customer retention campaign. The method is dependent on the characteristics of the customer base as is compliant with modern business analytics and accommodates the data-driven culture that has manifested itself within organizations.

  9. Impact of Lifetime Model Selections on the Reliability Prediction of IGBT Modules in Modular Multilevel Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yi; Wang, Huai; Wang, Zhongxu

    2017-01-01

    Power cycling in semiconductor modules contributes to repetitive thermal-mechanical stresses, which in return accumulate as fatigue on the devices, and challenge the lifetime. Typically, lifetime models are expressed in number-of-cycles, within which the device can operate without failures under ...

  10. Review of selected cost drivers for decisions on continued operation of older nuclear reactors. Safety upgrades, lifetime extension, decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    Lately, the approach to the operation of relatively old NPPs has become an important issue for the nuclear industry for several reasons. First, a large part of operating NPPs will reach the planned end of their lives relatively soon. Replacing these capacities can involve significant investment for the concerned countries and utilities. Second, many operating NPPs while about 30 years old are still in very good condition. Their continued safe operation appears possible and may bring about essential economic gains. Finally, with the costs of new NPPs being rather high at present, continued operation of existing plants and eventually their lifetime extension are viable options for supporting the nuclear share in power generation. This is becoming especially important in view of the growing attention to the issue of global warming and the role of nuclear energy in greenhouse gas mitigation. This report is a review of information related to three cost categories that are part of such cost-benefit analysis: costs of safety upgrades for continued operation of a nuclear unit, costs of lifetime extension and costs of decommissioning. It can serve as a useful reference source for experts and decision makers involved in the economics of operating NPPs

  11. The predicted lifetime costs and health consequences of calcium and vitamin D supplementation for fracture preventio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagen, G.; Wisløff, T.; Sønbø Kristiansen, Ivar

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Some studies indicate that calcium supplementation increases cardiovascular risk. We assessed whether such effects could counterbalance the fracture benefits from supplementation. Accounting for cardiovascular outcomes, calcium may cause net harm and would not be cost-effective. Clinicians...... may do well considering cardiovascular effects when prescribing calcium supplementation. Introduction: Accounting for possible cardiovascular effect of calcium and vitamin D supplementation (CaD), the aims of this study were to assess whether CaD on balance would improve population health...... and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such supplementation. Methods: We created a probabilistic Markov simulation model that was analysed at the individual patient level. We analysed 65-year-old Norwegian women with a 2.3 % 10-year risk of hip fracture and a 9.3 % risk of any major fracture according...

  12. Attrition Cost Model Instruction Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagiura, Takeshi

    2012-01-01

    This instruction manual explains in detail how to use the Attrition Cost Model program, which estimates the cost of student attrition for a state's higher education system. Programmed with SAS, this model allows users to instantly calculate the cost of attrition and the cumulative attrition rate that is based on the most recent retention and…

  13. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  14. Prediction of the lifetime productive and reproductive performance of Holstein cows managed for different lactation durations, using a model of lifetime nutrient partitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaillard, Charlotte; Martin, O; Blavy, P

    2016-01-01

    The GARUNS model is a lifetime performance model taking into account the changing physiological priorities of an animal during its life and through repeated reproduction cycles. This dynamic and stochastic model has been previously used to predict the productive and reproductive performance...... of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the present paper, we used this model to predict the lifetime productive and reproductive performance of Holstein cows for different lactation durations, with the aim of determining the lifetime scenario that optimizes cows' performance defined...... by lifetime efficiency (ratio of total milk energy yield to total energy intake) and pregnancy rate. To evaluate the model, data from a 16-mo extended lactation experiment on Holstein cows were used. Generally, the model could consistently fit body weight, milk yield, and milk components of these cows...

  15. Cost Modeling for Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2011-01-01

    Parametric cost models are an important tool for planning missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper presents on-going efforts to develop single variable and multi-variable cost models for space telescope optical telescope assembly (OTA). These models are based on data collected from historical space telescope missions. Standard statistical methods are used to derive CERs for OTA cost versus aperture diameter and mass. The results are compared with previously published models.

  16. Life-time and hierarchy of memory in the dissipative quantum model of brain

    OpenAIRE

    Alfinito, Eleonora; Vitiello, Giuseppe

    1999-01-01

    Some recent developments of the dissipative quantum model of brain are reported. In particular, the time-dependent frequency case is considered with its implications on the different life-times of the collective modes.

  17. Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Chuan Chen

    Full Text Available Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups.A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics.Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex.Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

  18. Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

    2015-01-01

    Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

  19. Tokamak reactor cost model based on STARFIRE/WILDCAT costing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, K. Jr.

    1983-03-01

    A cost model is presented which is useful for survey and comparative studies of tokamak reactors. The model is heavily based on STARFIRE and WILDCAT costing guidelines, philosophies, and procedures and reproduces the costing for these devices quite accurately

  20. Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Florian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair and replacement activities as well as large revenue losses, mainly in the case of offshore wind farms. The recent development and evolution of condition monitoring techniques, as well as the fact that an increasing number of installed turbines are equipped with online monitoring systems, offers a large amount of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law approach. The model is used within a risk-based maintenance decision framework to optimize maintenance planning for the blades lifetime.

  1. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Zhang, Qin Fen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chalise, Dol Raj [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Centurion, Emma E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost-estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  2. The direct cost of traumatic secretion transfer in hermaphroditic land snails: individuals stabbed with a love dart decrease lifetime fecundity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Kazuki; Chiba, Satoshi

    2015-04-07

    Several taxa of simultaneously hermaphroditic land snails exhibit a conspicuous mating behaviour, the so-called shooting of love darts. During mating, such land snail species transfer a specific secretion by stabbing a mating partner's body with the love dart. It has been shown that sperm donors benefit from this traumatic secretion transfer, because the secretions manipulate the physiology of a sperm recipient and increase the donors' fertilization success. However, it is unclear whether reception of dart shooting is costly to the recipients. Therefore, the effect of sexual conflict and antagonistic arms races on the evolution of traumatic secretion transfer in land snails is still controversial. To examine this effect, we compared lifetime fecundity and longevity between the individuals that received and did not receive dart shooting from mating partners in Bradybaena pellucida. Our experiments showed that the dart-receiving snails suffered reduction in lifetime fecundity and longevity. These results suggest that the costly mating behaviour, dart shooting, generates conflict between sperm donors and recipients and that sexually antagonistic arms races have contributed to the diversification of the morphological and behavioural traits relevant to dart shooting. Our findings also support theories suggesting a violent escalation of sexual conflict in hermaphroditic animals. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling and optimization of the lifetime of technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    1996-01-01

    Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova­ tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self­ organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important fea...

  4. Electro-thermal Modeling for Junction Temperature Cycling-Based Lifetime Prediction of a Press-Pack IGBT 3L-NPC-VSC Applied to Large Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Senturk, Osman Selcuk; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Teodorescu, Remus

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is a critical criterion for multi-MW wind turbines, which are being employed with increasing numbers in wind power plants, since they operate under harsh conditions and have high maintenance cost due to their remote locations. In this study, the wind turbine grid-side converter...... prediction, the converter electro-thermal model including electrical, power loss, and dynamical thermal models is developed with the main focus on the thermal modeling regarding converter topology, switch technology, and physical structure. Moreover, these models are simplified for their practical...... implementation in computation platforms. Finally, the converter lifetimes for wind power profiles are predicted using the IGBT lifetime model available. Hence, the developed electrothermal model’s suitability for the lifetime predictions is shown....

  5. Ship Repair Workflow Cost Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McDevitt, Mike

    2003-01-01

    The effects of intermittent work patterns and funding on the costs of ship repair and maintenance were modeled for the San Diego region in 2002 for Supervisor of Shipbuilding and Repair (SUPSHIP) San Diego...

  6. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  7. Modeling of Hall Thruster Lifetime and Erosion Mechanisms (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cheng, Shannon Y; Martinez-Sanchez, Manuel

    2007-01-01

    ...-limiting factor of the propulsion system. Evolution of the thruster geometry as a result of material removal due to sputtering is modeled by calculating wall erosion rates, stepping the grid boundary by a chosen time step and altering...

  8. Parameter Estimation for a Class of Lifetime Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyang Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Our purpose in this paper is to present a better method of parametric estimation for a bivariate nonlinear regression model, which takes the performance indicator of rubber aging as the dependent variable and time and temperature as the independent variables. We point out that the commonly used two-step method (TSM, which splits the model and estimate parameters separately, has limitation. Instead, we apply the Marquardt’s method (MM to implement parametric estimation directly for the model and compare these two methods of parametric estimation by random simulation. Our results show that MM has better effect of data fitting, more reasonable parametric estimates, and smaller prediction error compared with TSM.

  9. Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Braun; David A. Schweidel

    2011-01-01

    Customer retention and customer churn are key metrics of interest to marketers, but little attention has been placed on linking the different reasons for which customers churn to their value to a contractual service provider. In this paper, we put forth a hierarchical competing-risk model to jointly model when customers choose to terminate their service and why. Some of these reasons for churn can be influenced by the firm (e.g., service problems or price–value trade-offs), but others are unc...

  10. Strongest model-independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter

    CERN Document Server

    Audren, Benjamin; Mangano, Gianpiero; Serpico, Pasquale Dario; Tram, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Dark Matter is essential for structure formation in the late Universe so it must be stable on cosmological time scales. But how stable exactly? Only assuming decays into relativistic particles, we report an otherwise model independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter using current cosmological data. Since these decays affect only the low-$\\ell$ multipoles of the CMB, the Dark Matter lifetime is expected to correlate with the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ as well as curvature $\\Omega_k$. We consider two models, including $r$ and $r+\\Omega_k$ respectively, versus data from Planck, WMAP, WiggleZ and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, with or without the BICEP2 data (if interpreted in terms of primordial gravitational waves). This results in a lower bound on the lifetime of CDM given by 160Gyr (without BICEP2) or 200Gyr (with BICEP2) at 95% confidence level.

  11. Lifetime modelling with a Weibull law: comparison of three Bayesian Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billy, F.; Remy, E.; Bousquet, N.; Celeux, G.

    2006-01-01

    For a nuclear power plant, being able to estimate the lifetime of important components is strategic. But data is usually insufficient to do so. Thus, it is relevant to use expertise, together with data, in order to assess the value of lifetime on the grounds of both sources. The Bayesian frame and the choice of a Weibull law to model the random time for replacement are relevant. They have been chosen for this article. Two indicators are computed : the mean lifetime of any component and the mean residual lifetime of a given component, after it has been controlled. Three different Bayesian methods are compared on three sets of data. The article shows that the three methods lead to coherent results and that uncertainties are strongly reduced. The method developed around PMC has two main advantages: it models a conditional dependence of the two parameters of the Weibull law, which enables more coherent results on the prior; it has a parameter that weights the strength of the expertise. This last point is very important to do lifetime assessments, because then, expertise is not used to increase too small samples as much as to do a real extrapolation, far beyond what data itself say. (authors)

  12. PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Andy

    2017-03-15

    This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

  13. Formation and life-time of memory domains in the dissipative quantum model of brain

    OpenAIRE

    Alfinito, E.; Vitiello, G.

    2000-01-01

    We show that in the dissipative quantum model of brain the time-dependence of the frequencies of the electrical dipole wave quanta leads to the dynamical organization of the memories in space (i.e. to their localization in more or less diffused regions of the brain) and in time (i.e. to their longer or shorter life-time). The life-time and the localization in domains of the memory states also depend on internal parameters and on the number of links that the brain establishes with the external...

  14. Modeling of apparent activation energy and lifetime estimation in NAND flash memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyunghwan; Shin, Hyungcheol; Kang, Myounggon; Hwang, Yuchul

    2015-01-01

    Misunderstanding apparent activation energy (E aa ) can cause serious error in lifetime predictions. In this paper, the E aa is investigated for sub 20 nm NAND flash memory. In a high-temperature (HT) regime, the interface trap (N it ) recovery mechanism has the greatest impact on the charge loss. However, the values of E aa and E a(Nit) have a wide difference. Also, the lifetime of the device cannot be estimated by the Arrhenius model due to the E aa roll-off behavior. For the first time, we reveal the origin of abnormal characteristics on E aa and derive a mathematical formula for E aa as a function of each E a(mechanism) in NAND flash memory. Using the proposed E aa equation, the accurate lifetime for the device is estimated. (paper)

  15. Grid-connected polymer solar panels: initial considerations of cost, lifetime, and practicality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Andrew James; Lilliedal, Mathilde Raad; Jørgensen, Mikkel

    2010-01-01

    that the inclusion of a thin protective foil between the cell and the barrier foil is critical. The findings provide a preliminary foundation for the production and optimization of large-area polymer solar panels and also enabled a cost analysis of solar panels based on polymer solar cells.......Large solar panels were constructed from polymer solar cell modules prepared using full roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacture based on the previously published ProcessOne. The individual flexible polymer solar modules comprising multiple serially connected single cell stripes were joined electrically...... and laminated between a 4 mm tempered glass window and black Tetlar foil using two sheets of 0.5 mm thick ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The panels produced up to 8 W with solar irradiance of ~960 Wm−2, and had outer dimensions of 1 m x 1.7 m with active areas up to 9180 cm2. Panels were mounted on a tracking...

  16. Model of lifetime prediction - Study of the behaviour of polymers and organic matrix composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colin, X.

    2009-01-01

    The team 'Aging of Organic Materials' of the Process and Engineering Laboratory in Mechanics and Materials (Arts et Metiers, ParisTech) has developed the model of lifetime prediction for the prediction of the behaviour of polymers and organic composites. This model has already given evidence of a real predictive mean for various industrial applications, as for instance the prediction of a rupture under the coupled effect of a mechanical load and a chemical degradation. (O.M.)

  17. Grid-connected polymer solar panels: initial considerations of cost, lifetime, and practicality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medford, Andrew J; Lilliedal, Mathilde R; Jørgensen, Mikkel; Aarø, Dennis; Pakalski, Heinz; Fyenbo, Jan; Krebs, Frederik C

    2010-09-13

    Large solar panels were constructed from polymer solar cell modules prepared using full roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacture based on the previously published ProcessOne. The individual flexible polymer solar modules comprising multiple serially connected single cell stripes were joined electrically and laminated between a 4 mm tempered glass window and black Tetlar foil using two sheets of 0.5 mm thick ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The panels produced up to 8 W with solar irradiance of ~960 Wm⁻², and had outer dimensions of 1 m x 1.7 m with active areas up to 9180 cm². Panels were mounted on a tracking station and their output was grid connected between testing. Several generations of polymer solar cells and panel constructions were tested in this context to optimize the production of polymer solar panels. Cells lacking a R2R barrier layer were found to degrade due to diffusion of oxygen after less than a month, while R2R encapsulated cells showed around 50% degradation after 6 months but suffered from poor performance due to de-lamination during panel production. A third generation of panels with various barrier layers was produced to optimize the choice of barrier foil and it was found that the inclusion of a thin protective foil between the cell and the barrier foil is critical. The findings provide a preliminary foundation for the production and optimization of large-area polymer solar panels and also enabled a cost analysis of solar panels based on polymer solar cells.

  18. Lifetime economic burden of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stokes Michael E

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prostate cancer (PCa is the most common cancer affecting men in the United States. The initial treatment and subsequent monitoring of PCa patients places a large burden on U.S. health care systems. The objectives of this study were to estimate the total and disease-related per-patient lifetime costs using a phase-based model of cancer care for PCa patients enrolled in Medicare. Methods A model was developed to estimate life-time costs for patients diagnosed with PCa. Patients ≥ 65 years old and diagnosed with PCa between calendar years 1991-2002 were selected from the SEER database. Using SEER, we estimated survival times for PCa patients from diagnosis until death. The period of time patients contributed to treatment phases was determined using an algorithm designed to model the natural history of PCa. Costs were obtained from the US SEER-Medicare database and estimated during specific phases of care. Cost estimates were then combined with survival data to yield total and PCa-related life-time costs. Results Overall, the model estimated life-time costs of $110,520 (95% CI 110,324-110,739 per patient. PCa-related costs made up approximately 31% of total costs ($34,432. Conclusions Prostate cancer places a significant burden on U.S. health-care systems with average life-time PCa-related costs in excess of $30,000.

  19. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  20. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital......The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  1. Predicting the breakdown strength and lifetime of nanocomposites using a multi-scale modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanhui; Zhao, He; Wang, Yixing; Ratcliff, Tyree; Breneman, Curt; Brinson, L. Catherine; Chen, Wei; Schadler, Linda S.

    2017-08-01

    It has been found that doping dielectric polymers with a small amount of nanofiller or molecular additive can stabilize the material under a high field and lead to increased breakdown strength and lifetime. Choosing appropriate fillers is critical to optimizing the material performance, but current research largely relies on experimental trial and error. The employment of computer simulations for nanodielectric design is rarely reported. In this work, we propose a multi-scale modeling approach that employs ab initio, Monte Carlo, and continuum scales to predict the breakdown strength and lifetime of polymer nanocomposites based on the charge trapping effect of the nanofillers. The charge transfer, charge energy relaxation, and space charge effects are modeled in respective hierarchical scales by distinctive simulation techniques, and these models are connected together for high fidelity and robustness. The preliminary results show good agreement with the experimental data, suggesting its promise for use in the computer aided material design of high performance dielectrics.

  2. A preliminary model for estimating the first wall lifetime of a fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daenner, W.

    1975-02-01

    The estimation of the first wall lifetime is a necessary basis for predicting the availability of a fusion power plant. In order to do this, an analytical model was prepared and programmed for the computer which calculates the temperature and stress load of the first wall from the principal design parameters and quotes them against the relevant material properties. Neither the analytical model nor the information about the material performance is yet complete so that the answers obtained from the program are very preliminary. This situation is underlined by the results of sample calculations performed for the CTRD blanket module cell. The results obtained for vanadium and vanadium alloys show a strong dependence of the lifetime on the irradiation creep and the ductility of these materials. Completion of this model is envisaged as soon as the missing information becomes available. (orig.) [de

  3. Study of creep-fatigue behavior in a 1000 MW rotor using a phenomenological lifetime model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Nailong; Wang, Weizhe; Jiang, Jishen; Liu, Yingzheng [School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai (China)

    2017-02-15

    In this study, the phenomenological lifetime model was applied to part of an ultra-supercritical steam turbine rotor model to predict its lifetime as a post processing of the finite element method. To validate the accuracy and adaptation of the post processing program, stress strain hysteresis loops of a cylinderal model under service-like load cycle conditions in cycle N = 1 and 300 were constructed, and the comparison of the results with experimental data on the same cylinderal specimen showed them to be satisfactory. The temperature and von Mises stress distributions of the rotor during a startup-running-shutdown-natural cool process were numerically studied using ABAQUS and the damage caused by the interaction of creep and fatigue was subsequently computed and discussed. It was found that the maximum damage appeared at the inlet notch zone, with the blade groove areas and the front notch areas also suffering a large damage amplitude.

  4. Lifetime of dynamic heterogeneity in strong and fragile kinetically constrained spin models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonard, Sebastien; Berthier, Ludovic

    2005-01-01

    Kinetically constrained spin models are schematic coarse-grained models for the glass transition which represent an efficient theoretical tool to study detailed spatio-temporal aspects of dynamic heterogeneity in supercooled liquids. Here, we study how spatially correlated dynamic domains evolve with time and compare our results to various experimental and numerical investigations. We find that strong and fragile models yield different results. In particular, the lifetime of dynamic heterogeneity remains constant and roughly equal to the alpha relaxation time in strong models, while it increases more rapidly in fragile models when the glass transition is approached

  5. Beyond R 0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caswell, Hal

    2011-01-01

    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  6. Costs equations for cost modeling: application of ABC Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Fabiano Bertollo Santana

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aimed at providing an application of the ABC Matrix model - a management tool that models processes and activities. The ABC Matrix is based on matrix multiplication, using a fast algorithm for the development of costing systems and the subsequent translation of the costs in cost equations and systems. The research methodology is classified as a case study, using the simulation data to validate the model. The conclusion of the research is that the algorithm presented is an important development, because it is an effective approach to calculating the product cost and because it provides simple and flexible algorithm design software for controlling the cost of products

  7. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

  8. Statistical Methods for Detecting and Modeling General Patterns and Relationships in Lifetime Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvaloey, Jan Terje

    1999-04-01

    In this thesis, the author tries to develop methods of detecting and modeling general patterns and relationships in lifetime data. Tests with power against nonmonotonic trends and nonmonotonic co variate effects are considered, and nonparametric regression methods which allow estimation of fairly general nonlinear relationships are studied. Practical uses of some of the methods are illustrated although in a medical rather than engineering or technological context.

  9. Implementing a trustworthy cost-accounting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Jay; Seargeant, Dan

    2015-03-01

    Hospitals and health systems can develop an effective cost-accounting model and maximize the effectiveness of their cost-accounting teams by focusing on six key areas: Implementing an enhanced data model. Reconciling data efficiently. Accommodating multiple cost-modeling techniques. Improving transparency of cost allocations. Securing department manager participation. Providing essential education and training to staff members and stakeholders.

  10. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...... model provides a sound overall framework for cost breakdown, but that some functions, especially when it comes to performing and evaluating the actual migration, need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately.......The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...

  11. Studies on Mathematical Models of Wet Adhesion and Lifetime Prediction of Organic Coating/Steel by Grey System Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fandi Meng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A rapid degradation of wet adhesion is the key factor controlling coating lifetime, for the organic coatings under marine hydrostatic pressure. The mathematical models of wet adhesion have been studied by Grey System Theory (GST. Grey models (GM (1, 1 of epoxy varnish (EV coating/steel and epoxy glass flake (EGF coating/steel have been established, and a lifetime prediction formula has been proposed on the basis of these models. The precision assessments indicate that the established models are accurate, and the prediction formula is capable of making precise lifetime forecasting of the coatings.

  12. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  13. Converter-level FEM simulation for lifetime prediction of an LED driver with improved thermal modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, H.; Wang, H.; Ye, X.

    2017-01-01

    application. A converter-level finite element simulation (FEM) simulation is carried out to obtain the ambient temperature of electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs used in the LED driver, which takes into account the impact of the driver enclosure and the thermal coupling among different components....... Therefore, the proposed method bridges the link between the global ambient temperature profile outside of the enclosure and the local ambient temperature profiles of the components of interest inside the driver. A quantitative comparison of the estimated annual lifetime consumptions of MOSFETs...... and capacitors are given based on the proposed thermal modelling process, and the datasheet thermal impedance models and the global ambient temperature....

  14. A Critique of Aircraft Airframe Cost Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-09-01

    numbers, however, the ASD Cost Escalation Re- ft port 110-C would give a factor of 1.44.) 6 Historiaal and Forecasted Aeronautical Cost Indices...MODEL The SAI model is intended to estimate only the production cost of conceptual transport aircraft. The 17 groups below are designated as cost

  15. Maintenance cost models in deregulated power systems under opportunity costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Arfaj, K.; Dahal, K.; Azaiez, M.N.

    2007-01-01

    In a centralized power system, the operator is responsible for scheduling maintenance. There are different types of maintenance, including corrective maintenance; predictive maintenance; preventive maintenance; and reliability-centred maintenance. The main cause of power failures is poor maintenance. As such, maintenance costs play a significant role in deregulated power systems. They include direct costs associated with material and labor costs as well as indirect costs associated with spare parts inventory, shipment, test equipment, indirect labor, opportunity costs and cost of failure. In maintenance scheduling and planning, the cost function is the only component of the objective function. This paper presented the results of a study in which different components of maintenance costs were modeled. The maintenance models were formulated as an optimization problem with single and multiple objectives and a set of constraints. The maintenance costs models could be used to schedule the maintenance activities of power generators more accurately and to identify the best maintenance strategies over a period of time as they consider failure and opportunity costs in a deregulated environment. 32 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs

  16. Temperature dependence of o-Ps annihilation lifetime in non-uniform cylindrical pores in comparison with ETE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaghani, Morteza, E-mail: m.khaghani@pgs.usb.ac.ir; Mehmandoost-Khajeh-Dad, Ali Akbar, E-mail: mehmandoost@phys.usb.ac.ir

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • Using the well known multi-physics program COMSOL calculating o-Ps annihilation lifetime in complex geometries. • Investigation of shape non-uniformity of cylindrical pores on o-Ps annihilation lifetime. • Verifying temperature dependency of o-Ps lifetime in non-uniform cylindrical pores. • Suggesting PALS at low temperature as a method to verify pore uniformity in porous material. - Abstract: Ortho-positronium (o-Ps) annihilation lifetime was calculated in non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores by solving Schrodinger equation using a well-known multi-physics program called COMSOL. The o-Ps annihilation lifetime variation in terms of temperature was calculated on the basis of ETE model via a numerical method. The COMSOL simulations indicate that as long as the pore is uniform cylinder-shaped, the results agree with those of two-dimensional ETE model, whereas deformations in the cylinder shape (indentation or protrusion) change the temperature behavior of ETE model and, thereby, higher values are predicted for o-Ps lifetime in the pore at lower temperatures. The geometry of the non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores, which is accompanied by empirical evidence, can be used for the analysis of empirical results obtained from positron lifetime spectroscopy in different temperatures.

  17. Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plankensteiner, Kathrin; Bluder, Olivia; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-09-01

    In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log-normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness-of-fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Cost-Utility Analysis of Bariatric Surgery in Italy: Results of Decision-Analytic Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Lucchese

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery in Italy from a third-party payer perspective over a medium-term (10 years and a long-term (lifetime horizon. Methods: A state-transition Markov model was developed, in which patients may experience surgery, post-surgery complications, diabetes mellitus type 2, cardiovascular diseases or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Italian and international literature. Three types of surgeries were considered: gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Italy. Results: In the base-case analysis, over 10 years, bariatric surgery led to cost increment of EUR 2,661 and generated additional 1.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs. Over a lifetime, surgery led to savings of EUR 8,649, additional 0.5 life years and 3.2 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 2,412/QALY and dominant over conservative management over a lifetime. Conclusion: In a comprehensive decision analytic model, a current mix of surgical methods for bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Italian patient cohort considered in this analysis.

  19. Cost-Utility Analysis of Bariatric Surgery in Italy: Results of Decision-Analytic Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucchese, Marcello; Borisenko, Oleg; Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Cesana, Giancarlo; Adam, Daniel; Burdukova, Elisabeth; Lukyanov, Vasily; Di Lorenzo, Nicola

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery in Italy from a third-party payer perspective over a medium-term (10 years) and a long-term (lifetime) horizon. A state-transition Markov model was developed, in which patients may experience surgery, post-surgery complications, diabetes mellitus type 2, cardiovascular diseases or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Italian and international literature. Three types of surgeries were considered: gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Italy. In the base-case analysis, over 10 years, bariatric surgery led to cost increment of EUR 2,661 and generated additional 1.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Over a lifetime, surgery led to savings of EUR 8,649, additional 0.5 life years and 3.2 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 2,412/QALY and dominant over conservative management over a lifetime. In a comprehensive decision analytic model, a current mix of surgical methods for bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Italian patient cohort considered in this analysis. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

  20. Cost Concept Model and Gateway Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    user communities and builds upon our understanding of the requirements, drivers, obstacles and objectives that various stakeholder groups have relating to digital curation. Ultimately, this concept model should provide a critical input to the development and refinement of cost models as well as helping...... and solution providers, and by researchers in follow-up research and development projects. The Framework includes: • A Cost Concept Model—which defines the core concepts that should be included in curation costs models; • An Implementation Guide—for the cost concept model that provides guidance and proposes...... questions that should be considered when developing new cost models and refining existing cost models; • A Gateway Specification Template—which provides standard metadata for each of the core cost concepts and is intended for use by future model developers, model users, and service and solution providers...

  1. Capital cost models for geothermal power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, P.D.; Bloomster, C.H.

    1976-07-01

    A computer code, titled GEOCOST, has been developed at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, to rapidly and systematically calculate the potential costs of geothermal power. A description of the cost models in GEOCOST for the geothermal power plants is given here. Plant cost models include the flashed steam and binary systems. The data sources are described, along with the cost data correlations, resulting equations, and uncertainties. Comparison among GEOCOST plant cost estimates and recent A-E estimates are presented. The models are intended to predict plant costs for second and third generation units, rather than the more expensive first-of-a-kind units.

  2. Lifetime modelling for MCrAlY coatings in industrial gas turbine blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krukovsky Pavel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel theoretical and experimental approach for lifetime modelling of MCrAlY coatings for stationary gas turbines has been undertaken using the Inverse Problem Solution (IPS technique. With this technique feasible experimental data acquired after a defined experimental time t e are used as input values for the model parameters estimation. In the first stage of the approach a model, based on the oxidation and diffusion processes (Fick's first and second law was assumed, which considers the Al concentration profile across the coating. The measured average Al concentration profiles in the two-phase g+b and g - regions of coating as well as base metal were used as input values for the model parameters estimation and calculational prediction of the long term diffusion and oxidation behavior of the coating was performed. The time, when the b-NiAl phase is completely consumed was assumed as the coating lifetime end. Exposure experiments were carried out with a NiCoCrAlY coating (200 micron thickness with 8% Al in air at 900 °C and 950 °C, currently up to 10000 h. The oxide scale is growing continuously and no other oxides were observed. The average and b-NiAl phase concentration profiles of Al across the coating thickness were determined by electron microprobe and image analysis systems in the initial state after 700 and 10000 h of oxidation. The concentration profile measured after 700 h was used as input values for the model parameters estimation in order to calculate the Al and b-NiAl phase concentration profiles after 10000 h. The computational forecast for 10000 h at 950 °C and 900 °C are in good agreement with the measured data. The approach was applied for NiCoCrAlY (200 micron thickness coating lifetime modelling at 950 °C and 900 °C as well as for different coating thicknesses at 950 °C.

  3. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... Abstract. Existing cost estimating models offer frameworks for forecasting the probable cost of proposed construction pro ects. Nevertheless, they have been criticised to be either low in accuracy or slow in application. This paper describes the development of alternative cost- predicting models which will be ...

  4. Nuclear lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caraca, J.M.G.

    1976-01-01

    The importance of the results obtained in experiments of measurement of lifetimes for a detailed knowledge of nuclear structure is referred. Direct methods of measurement of nuclear lifetimes are described, namely, electronic methods, recoil-distance method, doppler shift atenuation method and blocking-method. A brief reference is made to indirect methods for measurement of life-times

  5. Preliminary Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Prince, F. Andrew; Smart, Christian; Stephens, Kyle; Henrichs, Todd

    2009-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. However, great care is required. Some space telescope cost models, such as those based only on mass, lack sufficient detail to support such analysis and may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Similarly, using ground based telescope models which include the dome cost will also lead to inaccurate conclusions. This paper reviews current and historical models. Then, based on data from 22 different NASA space telescopes, this paper tests those models and presents preliminary analysis of single and multi-variable space telescope cost models.

  6. The 40 year deadline for the French nuclear stock. Decision process, strengthening option and costs associated with a possible lifetime extension beyond 40 years of EDF reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves

    2014-01-01

    This report first proposes an overview of the lifetime extension problematic (PLEX) for nuclear plants in a general context (strategy of lifetime extension, and uncertainty and lack of return on experience), and in the case of France (emergence of a strategy of lifetime extension, economic challenges of an extension, uncertainty on investments required by an extension, risk of imposed implicit decisions). It gives a rather detailed overview of the French nuclear reactor fleet, of the status of EDF-operated reactors (construction stages, main lifetime events, regulatory situation of currently exploited reactors) and of their characteristics (common operation principle, main components, main safety functions, main considered severe accidents). It addresses safety issues related to ageing and to the post-Fukushima re-assessment (problematic, robustness increase, limits and weaknesses of additional safety assessments). It presents the currently performed improvements (safety referential, applicable strengthening requirements like safety re-examinations and requirements introduced after Fukushima, applied strengthening prescriptions drawn from additional safety assessments or from the third decennial inspection, with their limitations and perspectives). It proposes strengthening scenarios along with their challenges (in terms of requirement level, procedure and agenda). Three scenarios are proposed (degraded safety, preserved safety, strengthened safety) and analysed in terms of protection against aggressions, diffuse robustness, prevention and management of reactor accident, prevention and management of pool accidents, ultimate control and assistance means. Scenarios are finally compared in terms of costs

  7. Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

    2010-01-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  8. Parametric cost models for space telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtnay

    2017-11-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  9. Implementation of mathematical model of thermal behavior of electronic components for lifetime estimation based on multi-level simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frivaldsky Michal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is the proposal of multi-level simulation, suited for the evaluation of the lifetime of critical electronic devices (electrolytic capacitors. The aim of this issue is to imagine about the expected operation of complex and expensive power electronic systems, when the failure of the most critical component occurs. For that reason, various operational conditions and various physical influences must be considered (e.g. mechanical, humidity, electrical, heat stress, where nonlinearities are naturally introduced. Verification of the proposal is given, whereby the life-time estimation of an electrolytic capacitor operated in a DC-DC converter during various operational conditions is shown. At this point electrical and heat stress is considered for lifetime influence. First, the current state in the field of mathematical modeling of the lifetime for electrolytic capacitors, considering main phenomena is introduced. Next, individual sub-models for multi-level simulation purposes are developed, including a thermal simulation model and electrical simulation model. Several complexities of individual models are mutually compared in order to evaluate their accuracy and suitability for further use. Proper simulation tools have been mutually linked and data transfer was secured, in order to have the possibility of investigation of a lifetime depend on the changes of various variables.

  10. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  11. Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2012-01-01

    and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based......Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... on experiences from a Danish project to develop a cost model. It was found that a generic cost model should account for the nature of the organisation and the assets to be preserved, and for all major preservation activities and cost drivers. In addition, it should describe accounting principles. It was proposed...

  12. Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annibal Parracho Sant'Anna

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies strategies to access customer lifetime value (CLV. Traditionally, heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM are used to determine the best customers. Here, some forms of directly exploring these parameters to predict CLV are compared to an approach based on fitting a stochastic model. The model employed is a composition of a model for the number of transactions along the residual lifetime and a model for the value spent. New evidence is raised on the effect of aggregating transactions monthly. The data analyzed refer to two years of purchases of a group of customers of the same entrance cohort of a fidelity program cadastre of a supermarkets network in Rio de Janeiro. Using the first year to calibrate and the second year to validate the models, good fit of both models to the series of individual data and coherent CLV predictions are obtained.Este artigo estuda estratégias para avaliar o valor do tempo de vida do cliente (CLV. Tradicionalmente, heurísticas baseadas em variáveis medindo recência, freqüência e valor monetário (RFM são utilizadas para determinar os melhores clientes. Aqui, algumas formas de explorar diretamente estes parâmetros para predizer o CLV são comparadas com uma abordagem baseada no ajustamento de um modelo estocástico. O modelo utilizado é uma composição de um modelo para o número de transações ao longo da vida útil residual e um modelo para o valor gasto. Nova evidência é levantada sobre o efeito de agregação das transações mensalmente. Os dados analisados referem-se a dois anos da compras de um grupo de clientes da mesma coorte de ingresso no cadastro de um programa de fidelidade de uma rede de supermercados do Rio de Janeiro. Usando o primeiro ano para calibrar e o segundo ano para validar os modelos, bom ajuste dos dois modelos para as séries de dados individuais e previsões coerentes para o CLV são obtidas.

  13. Lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossan, D.B.; Warburton, E.K.

    1974-01-01

    Lifetime measurements are discussed, concentrating on the electronic technique, the recoil distance method (RDM), and the Doppler shift attenuation method (DSAM). A brief review of several indirect timing techniques is given, and their specific advantages and applicability are considered. The relationship between lifetimes of nuclear states and the nuclear structure information obtained from them is examined. A short discussion of channeling and microwave methods of lifetime measurement is presented. (23 figures, 171 references) (U.S.)

  14. Species abundance distributions in neutral models with immigration or mutation and general lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Amaury

    2011-07-01

    We consider a general, neutral, dynamical model of biodiversity. Individuals have i.i.d. lifetime durations, which are not necessarily exponentially distributed, and each individual gives birth independently at constant rate λ. Thus, the population size is a homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process (which is not necessarily a Markov process). We assume that types are clonally inherited. We consider two classes of speciation models in this setting. In the immigration model, new individuals of an entirely new species singly enter the population at constant rate μ (e.g., from the mainland into the island). In the mutation model, each individual independently experiences point mutations in its germ line, at constant rate θ. We are interested in the species abundance distribution, i.e., in the numbers, denoted I(n)(k) in the immigration model and A(n)(k) in the mutation model, of species represented by k individuals, k = 1, 2, . . . , n, when there are n individuals in the total population. In the immigration model, we prove that the numbers (I(t)(k); k ≥ 1) of species represented by k individuals at time t, are independent Poisson variables with parameters as in Fisher's log-series. When conditioning on the total size of the population to equal n, this results in species abundance distributions given by Ewens' sampling formula. In particular, I(n)(k) converges as n → ∞ to a Poisson r.v. with mean γ/k, where γ : = μ/λ. In the mutation model, as n → ∞, we obtain the almost sure convergence of n (-1) A(n)(k) to a nonrandom explicit constant. In the case of a critical, linear birth-death process, this constant is given by Fisher's log-series, namely n(-1) A(n)(k) converges to α(k)/k, where α : = λ/(λ + θ). In both models, the abundances of the most abundant species are briefly discussed.

  15. HTGR Cost Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooler Reactor (HTGR) Cost Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Cost Model calculates an estimate of the capital costs, annual operating and maintenance costs, and decommissioning costs for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The user can generate these costs for multiple reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for a single or four-pack configuration; and for a reactor size of 350 or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Cost Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Cost Model. This model was design for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel. Modification of the HTGR Cost Model should only be performed by users familiar with Excel and Visual Basic.

  16. COST EVALUATION: STRUCTURING OF A MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altair Borgert

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study’s purpose was to build a cost evaluation model with views to providing managers and decision makers with information to support the resolution process. From a strategic positioning standpoint, the pondering of variables involved in a cost system is key to corporate success. To this extent, overall consideration was given to contemporary cost approaches – the Theory of Constraints, Balanced Scorecard and Strategic Cost Management – and cost evaluation was analysed. It is understood that this is a relevant factor and that it ought to be taken into account when taking corporate decisions. Furthermore, considering that the MCDA methodology is recommended for the construction of cost evaluation models, some of it’s aspects were emphasised. Finally, the construction of the model itself complements this study. At this stage, cost variables for the three approaches were compiled. Thus, a repository of several variables was created and its use and combination is subject to the interests and needs of those responsible for it’s structuring within corporations. In so proceeding, the number of variables to ponder follows the complexity of the issue and of the required solution. Once meetings held with the study groups, the model was built, revised and reconstructed until consensus was reached. Thereafter, the conclusion was that a cost evaluation model, when built according to the characteristics and needs of each organization, might become the groundwork ensuring accounting becomes increasingly useful at  companies. Key-words: Cost evaluation. Cost measurement. Strategy.

  17. Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elzey, Dana M.; Wadley, Haydn N. G.

    1996-01-01

    Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

  18. The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Frank A.; Hamaker, Joseph W. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to

  19. A CTRW-based model of time-resolved fluorescence lifetime imaging in a turbid medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernomordik, Victor; Gandjbakhche, Amir H; Hassan, Moinuddin; Pajevic, Sinisa; Weiss, George H

    2010-12-01

    We develop an analytic model of time-resolved fluorescent imaging of photons migrating through a semi-infinite turbid medium bounded by an infinite plane in the presence of a single stationary point fluorophore embedded in the medium. In contrast to earlier models of fluorescent imaging in which photon motion is assumed to be some form of continuous diffusion process, the present analysis is based on a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) on a simple cubic lattice, the object being to estimate the position and lifetime of the fluorophore. Such information can provide information related to local variations in pH and temperature with potential medical significance. Aspects of the theory were tested using time-resolved measurements of the fluorescence from small inclusions inside tissue-like phantoms. The experimental results were found to be in good agreement with theoretical predictions provided that the fluorophore was not located too close to the planar boundary, a common problem in many diffusive systems.

  20. Global-mean BC lifetime as an indicator of model skill? Constraining the vertical aerosol distribution using aircraft observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, M. T.; Samset, B. H.; Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.

    2017-12-01

    Several recent studies have used observations from the HIPPO flight campaigns to constrain the modeled vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific. Results indicate a relatively linear relationship between global-mean atmospheric BC residence time, or lifetime, and bias in current models. A lifetime of less than 5 days is necessary for models to reasonably reproduce these observations. This is shorter than what many global models predict, which will in turn affect their estimates of BC climate impacts. Here we use the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM to examine whether this relationship between global BC lifetime and model skill also holds for a broader a set of flight campaigns from 2009-2013 covering both remote marine and continental regions at a range of latitudes. We perform four sets of simulations with varying scavenging efficiency to obtain a spread in the modeled global BC lifetime and calculate the model error and bias for each campaign and region. Vertical BC profiles are constructed using an online flight simulator, as well by averaging and interpolating monthly mean model output, allowing us to quantify sampling errors arising when measurements are compared with model output at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Using the OsloCTM coupled with a microphysical aerosol parameterization, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled BC vertical distribution to uncertainties in the aerosol aging and scavenging processes in more detail. From this, we can quantify how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in its climate impacts. For most campaigns and regions, a short global-mean BC lifetime corresponds with the lowest model error and bias. On an aggregated level, sampling errors appear to be small, but larger differences are seen in individual regions. However, we also find that model-measurement discrepancies in BC vertical profiles cannot be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or

  1. Lifetime of a spacecraft around a synchronous system of asteroids using a dipole model

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Leonardo Barbosa Torres; de Almeida Prado, Antonio F. Bertachini; Sanchez, Diogo Merguizo

    2017-11-01

    Space missions allow us to expand our knowledge about the origin of the solar system. It is believed that asteroids and comets preserve the physical characteristics from the time that the solar system was created. For this reason, there was an increase of missions to asteroids in the past few years. To send spacecraft to asteroids or comets is challenging, since these objects have their own characteristics in several aspects, such as size, shape, physical properties, etc., which are often only discovered after the approach and even after the landing of the spacecraft. These missions must be developed with sufficient flexibility to adjust to these parameters, which are better determined only when the spacecraft reaches the system. Therefore, conducting a dynamic investigation of a spacecraft around a multiple asteroid system offers an extremely rich environment. Extracting accurate information through analytical approaches is quite challenging and requires a significant number of restrictive assumptions. For this reason, a numerical approach to the dynamics of a spacecraft in the vicinity of a binary asteroid system is offered in this paper. In the present work, the equations of the Restricted Synchronous Four-Body Problem (RSFBP) are used to model a binary asteroid system. The main objective of this work is to construct grids of initial conditions, which relates semi-major axis and eccentricity, in order to quantify the lifetime of a spacecraft when released close to the less massive body of the binary system (modeled as a rotating mass dipole). We performed an analysis of the lifetime of the spacecraft considering several mass ratios of a binary system of asteroids and investigating the behavior of a spacecraft in the vicinity of this system. We analyze direct and retrograde orbits. This study investigated orbits that survive for at least 500 orbital periods of the system (which is approximately one year), then not colliding or escaping from the system during this

  2. Lifetime effectiveness of mifamurtide addition to chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma: a Markov process model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hyun Jin; Lee, Jun Ah; Han, Euna; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2015-09-01

    The mortality and progression rates in osteosarcoma differ depending on the presence of metastasis. A decision model would be useful for estimating long-term effectiveness of treatment with limited clinical trial data. The aim of this study was to explore the lifetime effectiveness of the addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy for patients with metastatic and nonmetastatic osteosarcoma. The target population was osteosarcoma patients with or without metastasis. A Markov process model was used, whose time horizon was lifetime with a starting age of 13 years. There were five health states: disease-free (DF), recurrence, post-recurrence disease-free, post-recurrence disease-progression, and death. Transition probabilities of the starting state, DF, were calculated from the INT-0133 clinical trials for chemotherapy with and without mifamurtide. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) increased upon addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy by 10.5 % (10.13 and 9.17 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) and 45.2 % (7.23 and 4.98 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) relative to the lifetime effectiveness of chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma, respectively. Life-years gained (LYG) increased by 10.1 % (13.10 LYG with mifamurtide and 11.90 LYG without mifamurtide) in nonmetastatic patients and 42.2 % (9.43 LYG with mifamurtide and 6.63 LYG without mifamurtide) in metastatic osteosarcoma patients. The Markov model analysis showed that chemotherapy with mifamurtide improved the lifetime effectiveness compared to chemotherapy alone in both nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma. Relative effectiveness of the therapy was higher in metastatic than nonmetastatic osteosarcoma over lifetime. However, absolute lifetime effectiveness was higher in nonmetastatic than metastatic osteosarcoma.

  3. Endurance degradation and lifetime model of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with 2T structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiaxing; Liu, Siyang; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Sun, Weifeng; Liu, Yuwei; Liu, Xiaohong; Hou, Bo

    2017-08-01

    The endurance degradation mechanisms of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with two-transistor (2T) structure are investigated in detail in this work. With the help of charge pumping (CP) measurements and Sentaurus TCAD simulations, the damages in the drain overlap region along the tunnel oxide interface caused by band-to-band (BTB) tunneling programming and the damages in the channel region resulted from Fowler-Nordheim (FN) tunneling erasure are verified respectively. Furthermore, the lifetime model of endurance characteristic is extracted, which can extrapolate the endurance degradation tendency and predict the lifetime of the device.

  4. Fatigue lifetime investigations on aluminium 2024 under two stage cyclic loading by means of experiments and three microstructural models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkart, K.; Schleicher, M.; Jansen, C.; Bomas, H.; Mayr, P.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work is to achieve information about the development of fatigue failure in the aluminium alloy 2024. The attention was focused on short fatigue cracks under cyclic loading and the occurring load sequence effects on lifetime under two-level cyclic loading. Following the experiments, a revision of three different microstructural crack growth models, which were found in the literature, was made. Based on the data of constant-level cyclic loading, predictions of two-level cyclic loading behaviour were made and compared with the experimentally measured crack propagation rates and reached lifetimes. (orig.) [de

  5. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonjes, David J., E-mail: david.tonjes@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States); Waste Reduction and Management Institute, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 (United States); Center for Bioenergy Research and Development, Advanced Energy Research and Technology Center, Stony Brook University, 1000 Innovation Rd., Stony Brook, NY 11794-6044 (United States); Mallikarjun, Sreekanth, E-mail: sreekanth.mallikarjun@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets.

  6. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonjes, David J.; Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets

  7. Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

  8. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    . However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute......Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  9. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  10. From Costs to Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2015-01-01

    . Implementation of our findings would facilitate an organisation’s strategic planning for curation services through an improved understanding of services, streamlining and improvement of those services, planning for new collaborations, and identifying new business opportunities.......This deliverable discusses business models for digital curation. It helps organisations to understand the requirements and drivers for curation services from a supplier and demand side. We investigated existing services and have developed guidelines to address new business opportunities...

  11. The Impact of Mission Profile Models on the Predicted Lifetime of IGBT Modules in the Modular Multilevel Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yi; Wang, Huai; Wang, Zhongxu

    2017-01-01

    The reliability aspect study of Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) is of great interest in industry applications, such as offshore wind. Lifetime prediction of key components is an important tool to design MMC with fulfilled reliability specifications. While many efforts have been made to the lif......The reliability aspect study of Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) is of great interest in industry applications, such as offshore wind. Lifetime prediction of key components is an important tool to design MMC with fulfilled reliability specifications. While many efforts have been made...... and electrical power modeling methods on the estimated lifetime of IGBT modules in an MMC for offshore wind power application. In a 30 MW MMC case study, an annual wind speed profile with a resolution of 1 s/data, 10 minute/data, and 1 hour/data are considered, respectively. A method to re-generate higher...... used in the MMC, resulting in significant differences. The study serves as a first step to quantify the impact of mission profile modeling on lifetime prediction, and to provide a guideline on mission profile collection for the presented application....

  12. Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Ian M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schiller, Steven R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Todd, Annika [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Billingsley, Megan A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa C. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from a national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.

  13. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  14. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Mary Alice

    2010-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC and A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC and A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC and A program. The MC and A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  15. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mary Alice Price

    2010-07-11

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC&A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC&A program. The MC&A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  16. Lifetime cost analysis in public electric light systems; Analise de custos de vida util em sistemas de iluminacao publica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espirito Santo, Geoberto; Santos, Maria Betania G. dos [Alagoas Univ., Maceio (Brazil)

    1999-12-01

    For economical evaluation of energy conservation programs in public electric light, it is important to choose a methodology which considers the best cost/benefit ratio for concessionaires, city halls and final consumer, related to the obtained energy efficiency and the investment. This paper discusses some technical and economical advantages of the methodology used by UFAL - the federal university of Alagoas, Brazil, for public lighting efficiency in Arapiraca city, AL.

  17. An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delucchi, M A; Yang, C; Burke, A F; Ogden, J M; Kurani, K; Kessler, J; Sperling, D

    2014-01-13

    Concerns about climate change, urban air pollution and dependence on unstable and expensive supplies of foreign oil have led policy-makers and researchers to investigate alternatives to conventional petroleum-fuelled internal-combustion-engine vehicles in transportation. Because vehicles that get some or all of their power from an electric drivetrain can have low or even zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air pollutants, and can consume little or no petroleum, there is considerable interest in developing and evaluating advanced electric vehicles (EVs), including pure battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. To help researchers and policy-makers assess the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change and reduce petroleum use, this paper discusses the technology of EVs, the infrastructure needed for their development, impacts on emissions of GHGs, petroleum use, materials use, lifetime costs, consumer acceptance and policy considerations.

  18. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  19. Desired lifetime and end-of-life desires across adulthood from 20 to 90: a dual-source information model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Frieder R; Baltes, Paul B; Wagner, Gert G

    2007-09-01

    How long do people want to live, and how does scientific research on aging affect such desires? A dual-source information model proposes that aging expectations and desires are informed differently by two sources: personal experiences on the one hand, and scientific and societal influences on the other. Two studies with independent German national samples explored desires regarding length of life and end of life among adults between the ages of 20 and 90. FINDINGS ARE: First, desired lifetime is consistent at around 85 years with few age differences. Second, experimental induction of good or bad news from research on aging has little effect in Study 1. Third, interest in science has moderating effects on desired lifetime in Study 2. Fourth, there is a high prevalence of a strong desire to control the "when and how" of one's death, although only 11% of the individuals completed a living will. Findings are consistent with the dual-source information model.

  20. A markov model approach assessing the cost of illness of generalized anxiety disorder in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereza, Basil G; Machado, Márcio; Papadimitropoulos, Manny; Sproule, Beth; Ravindran, Arun V; Einarson, Thomas R

    2012-12-01

    Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a chronic disease with waxing and waning of symptoms. This is the first comprehensive economic model developed to reflect the nature and course of GAD. An incidence-based probabilistic Markov model was developed reflecting nine GAD health states (HS): clinical assessments (three HS), maintenance therapies (four HS), discontinuation (one HS), and death (one HS). A probability curve of the GAD onset (ages 18-80) determined entry into the model and assumed patients retained the diagnoses until death. Canadian Psychiatric Association (CPA) guidelines determined pharmacotherapy, with revisions/validation by an expert panel. Direct costs (clinician, pharmacotherapy, hospitalization) were retrieved from government publications. Remission was based on pooled-analysis of CPA-cited evidence. Remaining clinical rates, absenteeism, and hospitalization were retrieved from the literature. Direct costs were attributed throughout the model except for the discontinuation and death HS. Indirect costs (wage rate) were retrieved from government publications and the literature (absenteeism), and were attributed to patients with GAD ≤65 years of age. Results were discounted at 5% and results expressed in 2008 Canadian dollars. The mean lifetime cost of illness (COI) was estimated to be $31,213 (SD $9,100) per patient. The cost of absenteeism accounted for 96% of the mean COI. The mean age of onset was 31 years and approximately 19% did not respond to pharmacotherapy. Over 85% of patients discontinued treatment by the fourth cycle (2nd year of therapy). Over the course of the model, a mean of 53% of patients relapsed, with an average rate of 0.79 relapses per patient. On average and over a lifetime, the disorder went unmanaged over a period of 14 (SD 9) years. The model was most sensitive to absenteeism. GAD is a costly disease with a lifetime COI <$32k/patient, with absenteeism exerting a significant impact.

  1. Modelled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-11-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long-range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present-day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparison. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modelled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  2. Modeled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-08-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparision. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modeled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  3. Analysis of Implementing Lifetime Energy Cost, Including Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel and Energy Footprints of Contractors, as Mandatory Decision Factors in Navy Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Cost Of Energy, Energy Efficiency, Energy Footprint, Mandatory Evaluation Factors, Navy Acquisition, Energy Management Systems, Corporate Social Responsibility 16...Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff CPG Comprehensive Procurement Guidelines CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DAG Defense Acquisition... corporate social responsibility (CSR), in the pursuit of maximizing profit, corporations are incentivized, at least theoretically, to produce their goods

  4. Fuel cycle model and the cost of a recycling thorium in the CANDU reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hangbok; Park, Chang Je

    2005-01-01

    The dry process fuel technology has a high proliferation-resistance, which allows applications not only to the existing but also to the future nuclear fuel cycle systems. In this study, the homogeneous ThO 2 -UO 2 recycling fuel cycle in a Canada deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactor was assessed for a fuel cycle cost evaluation. A series of parametric calculations were performed for the uranium fraction, enrichment of the initial uranium fuel, and the fission product removal rated of the recycled fuel. The fuel cycle cost was estimated by the levelized lifetime cost model provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency. Though it is feasible to recycle the homogeneous ThO 2 -UO 2 fuel in the CANDU reactor from the viewpoint of a mass balance, the recycling fuel cycle cost is much higher than the conventional natural uranium fuel cycle cost for most cases due to the high fuel fabrication cost. (author)

  5. A Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model to Optimize Equipment Maintenance Resources Over Plant Lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Theodore A.; Perdue, Robert K.; Woodcock, Joel; Elder, G. Gary

    2002-01-01

    Experience has shown that proactive aging/asset management can best be defined as an ongoing process. Station goals directly supported by such a process include reducing Unplanned Capability Loss Factor and gaining the optimum value from maintenance and aging management budgets. An effective aging/asset management process must meet evolving and sometimes conflicting requirements for efficient and reliable nuclear power plant operation. The process should identify most likely contributors before they fail, and develop cost-effective contingencies. Current trends indicate the need for focused tools that give quantitative input to decision-making. Opposing goals, such as increasing availability while optimizing aging management budgets, must be balanced. Recognizing the importance of experience in reducing the uncertainty inherent in predicting equipment degradation rates, nuclear industry demographics suggest the need to capture existing expert knowledge in a usable form. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Process has been developed to address these needs. The proactive approach is a process supported by tools. The process identifies goals and develops criteria - including safety, costs, and power production - that are used to prioritize systems and equipment across the plant. The process then draws upon tools to most effectively meet the plant's goals. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model TM is one software-enabled tool designed for mathematical optimization. Results assist a plant in developing a plant-wide plan of aging management activities. This paper describes the proactive aging/asset management process and provides an overview of the methodology that has been incorporated in a model to perform a plant-wide optimization of aging management activities. (authors)

  6. Degradation Behavior of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Lifetime Models and Field Measured Frequency Regulation Mission Profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Loan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stroe, Ana-Irina

    2016-01-01

    Energy storage systems based on Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have been proposed as an environmentally friendly alternative to traditional conventional generating units for providing grid frequency regulation. One major challenge regarding the use of Lithium-ion batteries in such applications...... of the Li-ion battery and its degradation behavior is required. Thus, this paper aims to investigate, based on a laboratory developed lifetime model, the degradation behavior of the performance parameters (i.e., capacity and power capability) of a Li-ion battery cell when it is subjected to a field measured...... is their higher cost—in comparison with other storage technologies or with the traditional frequency regulation methods—combined with performance-degradation uncertainties. In order to surpass this challenge and to allow for optimal sizing and proper operation of the battery, accurate knowledge about the lifetime...

  7. Cost effectiveness of recycling: a systems model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonjes, David J; Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

    2013-11-01

    Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fragoulakis V

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Vassilis Fragoulakis, Nikolaos ManiadakisNational School of Public Health, Department of Health Services Management, Athens, GreeceObjective: To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF in terms of net tax revenue from the state's perspective in Greece.Methods: Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1 early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2 employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3 retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed.Results: The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200. The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831. In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375, while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930. Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60

  9. Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lum, Karen; Hihn, Jairus; Menzies, Tim

    2006-01-01

    While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

  10. Lifetime Models for Lithium-ion Batteries used in Virtual Power Plant Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan

    The penetration of wind power into the power system has been increasing in recent years. However, despite its environmental friendliness, the wind power grid integration at a large scale faces several limitations, mainly caused by the characteristics of the wind (i.e. intermittent, variable......; however, because of their advantages, which include fast response, high efficiency, long lifetime and environmental friendliness, Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries represent suitable candidates for integration within VPPs, especially when they are required to provide short- and medium-time services...

  11. Thermo-mechanical and neutron lifetime modelling and design of Be pebbles in the neutron multiplier for the LIFE engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMange, P.; Marian, J.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.

    2009-01-01

    Concept designs for the laser inertial fusion/fission energy (LIFE) engine include a neutron multiplication blanket containing Be pebbles flowing in a molten salt coolant. These pebbles must be designed to withstand the extreme irradiation and temperature conditions in the blanket to enable a reliable and cost-effective operation of LIFE. In this work, we develop design criteria for spherical Be pebbles on the basis of their thermo-mechanical behaviour under continued neutron exposure. We consider the effects of high fluence and fast fluxes on the elastic, thermal and mechanical properties of nuclear-grade Be. Our results suggest a maximum pebble diameter of 30 mm to avoid tensile failure, coated with an anti-corrosive, high-strength metallic shell to avoid failure by pebble contact. Moreover, we find that the operation temperature must always be kept above 450 deg. C to enable creep to relax the stresses induced by swelling. Under these circumstances, we estimate the pebble lifetime to be at least 16 months if uncoated, and up to six years when coated. We identify the sources of uncertainty on the properties used and discuss the advantages of new intermetallic beryllides and their use in LIFE's neutron multiplier. To establish Be-pebble lifetimes with improved confidence, reliable experiments to measure irradiation creep must be performed.

  12. Cost Optimization of Product Families using Analytic Cost Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for analysing the cost structure of a mass customized product family. The method uses linear regression and backwards selection to reduce the complexity of a data set describing a number of historical product configurations and incurred costs. By reducing the data...... set, the configuration variables which best describe the variation in product costs are identified. The method is tested using data from a Danish manufacturing company and the results indicate that the method is able to identify the most critical configuration variables. The method can be applied...... in product family redesign projects focusing on cost reduction to identify which modules contribute the most to cost variation and should thus be optimized....

  13. Lifetime Economic Burden of Rape Among U.S. Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Cora; DeGue, Sarah; Florence, Curtis; Lokey, Colby N

    2017-06-01

    This study estimated the per-victim U.S. lifetime cost of rape. Data from previous studies was combined with current administrative data and 2011 U.S. National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey data in a mathematical model. Rape was defined as any lifetime completed or attempted forced penetration or alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration, measured among adults not currently institutionalized. Costs included attributable impaired health, lost productivity, and criminal justice costs from the societal perspective. Average age at first rape was assumed to be 18 years. Future costs were discounted by 3%. The main outcome measures were the average per-victim (female and male) and total population discounted lifetime cost of rape. Secondary outcome measures were marginal outcome probabilities among victims (e.g., suicide attempt) and perpetrators (e.g., incarceration) and associated costs. Analysis was conducted in 2016. The estimated lifetime cost of rape was $122,461 per victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.1 trillion (2014 U.S. dollars) over victims' lifetimes, based on data indicating >25 million U.S. adults have been raped. This estimate included $1.2 trillion (39% of total) in medical costs; $1.6 trillion (52%) in lost work productivity among victims and perpetrators; $234 billion (8%) in criminal justice activities; and $36 billion (1%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage. Government sources pay an estimated $1 trillion (32%) of the lifetime economic burden. Preventing sexual violence could avoid substantial costs for victims, perpetrators, healthcare payers, employers, and government payers. These findings can inform evaluations of interventions to reduce sexual violence. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Activity based costing model for inventory valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineet Chouhan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Activity-Based-Model (ABC is used for the purpose of significant improvement for overhead accounting systems by providing the best information required for managerial decision. This pa-per discusses implacability of ABC technique on inventory valuation as a management account-ing innovation. In order to prove the applicability of ABC for inventory control a material driven medium-sized and privately owned company from engineering (iron and steel industry is select-ed and by analysis of its production process and its material dependency and use of indirect in-ventory, an ABC model is explored for better inventory control. The case revealed that the ne-cessity of ABC in the area of inventory control is significant. The company is not only able to increase its quality of decision but also it can significantly analyze its cost of direct material cost, valuation of direct material and use its implications for better decision making.

  15. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  16. Modeling the expected lifetime and evolution of a deme's principal genetic sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Brian

    2014-03-01

    The principal genetic sequence (PGS) is the most common genetic sequence in a deme. The PGS changes over time because new genetic sequences are created by inversions, compete with the current PGS, and a small fraction become PGSs. A set of coupled difference equations provides a description of the evolution of the PGS distribution function in an ensemble of demes. Solving the set of equations produces the survival probability of a new genetic sequence and the expected lifetime of an existing PGS as a function of inversion size and rate, recombination rate, and deme size. Additionally, the PGS distribution function is used to explain the transition pathway from old to new PGSs. We compare these results to a cellular automaton based representation of a deme and the drosophila species, D. melanogaster and D. yakuba.

  17. Health and economic impact of combining metformin with nateglinide to achieve glycemic control: Comparison of the lifetime costs of complications in the U.K

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salas Maribel

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To reduce the likelihood of complications in persons with type 2 diabetes, it is critical to control hyperglycaemia. Monotherapy with metformin or insulin secretagogues may fail to sustain control after an initial reduction in glycemic levels. Thus, combining metformin with other agents is frequently necessary. These analyses model the potential long-term economic and health impact of using combination therapy to improve glycemic control. Methods An existing model that simulates the long-term course of type 2 diabetes in relation to glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c and post-prandial glucose (PPG was used to compare the combination of nateglinide with metformin to monotherapy with metformin. Complication rates were estimated for major diabetes-related complications (macrovascular and microvascular based on existing epidemiologic studies and clinical trial data. Utilities and costs were estimated using data collected in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS. Survival, life years gained (LYG, quality-adjusted life years (QALY, complication rates and associated costs were estimated. Costs were discounted at 6% and benefits at 1.5% per year. Results Combination therapy was predicted to reduce complication rates and associated costs compared with metformin. Survival increased by 0.39 (0.32 discounted and QALY by 0.46 years (0.37 discounted implying costs of £6,772 per discounted LYG and £5,609 per discounted QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed the results to be consistent over broad ranges. Conclusion Although drug treatment costs are increased by combination therapy, this cost is expected to be partially offset by a reduction in the costs of treating long-term diabetes complications.

  18. Improved generation lifetime model for the electrical characterization of single- and double-gate SOI nMOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeti, M; Martino, J A; Simoen, E; Claeys, C

    2008-01-01

    This work proposes a refined technique for the extraction of the generation lifetime in single- and double-gate partially depleted SOI nMOSFETs. The model presented in this paper, based on the drain current switch-off transients, takes into account the influence of the laterally non-uniform channel doping, caused by the presence of the halo implanted region, and the amount of charge controlled by the drain and source junctions on the floating body effect when the channel length is reduced. The obtained results for single-gate (SG) devices are compared with two-dimensional numerical simulations and experimental data, extracted for devices fabricated in a 0.1 µm SOI CMOS technology, showing excellent agreement. The improved model to determine the generation lifetime in double-gate (DG) devices beyond the considerations previously presented also consider the influence of the silicon layer thickness on the drain current transient. The extracted data through the improved model for DG devices were compared with measurements and two-dimensional numerical simulations of the SG devices also presenting a good adjustment with the channel length reduction and the same tendency with the silicon layer thickness variation

  19. Modelled Black Carbon Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetime in AeroCom Phase II Constrained by Aircraft Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, Andreas; Kondo, Yutaka; Li, Shao-Meng; Moteki, N.; Koike, Makoto; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, M.; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Guang; Liu, Xiaohong; Penner, Joyce E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, O.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Zhang, Kai

    2014-11-27

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, and are generally held to exacerbate global warming through exerting a positive radiative forcing1. However, the total contribution of BC to the ongoing changes in global climate is presently under debate2-8. Both anthropogenic BC emissions and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of BC concentration are highly uncertain2,9. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood, leading to large estimated uncertainty in BC concentration at high altitudes and far from emission sources10. These uncertainties limit our ability to quantify both the historical, present and future anthropogenic climate impact of BC. Here we compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns with 13 state of the art aerosol models, and show that recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing. Further, an atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in transport dominated remote regions. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in the multi-model median direct BC forcing from fossil fuel and biofuel burning over the industrial era.

  20. Lifetime learning and lifetime education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aljana Lepšina

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective education and lifetime learning are becoming a key to competitive, knowledge-based economy. Our country is at present, such as other European countries facing new approaches and developments in the area of education along with changes and difficulties. Third-level is known for an increased number of students, weak financial backing of universities, initial difficulties with Bologna Agreement and increased competitiveness in Europe. It is necessary to improve the education quality, encourage life-long learning and increase investments into research and development.

  1. Lifetime Costs and Outcomes of Repair of Tetralogy of Fallot Compared to Natural Progression of the Disease: Great Ormond Street Hospital Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Rachael Maree; Isaac, Mark; Frigiola, Alessandra; Blundell, David; Brown, Kate; Bull, Kate

    2013-01-01

    Background Tetralogy of Fallot is a congenital heart disease that requires surgical repair without which survival through childhood is extremely rare. The aim of this paper is to use data from the mandatory follow-up of patients with Tetralogy of Fallot to model the health-related costs and outcomes over the first 55-years of life. Method A decision analytical model was developed to establish costs and outcomes for patients up to 55 years after diagnosis and first repair of Tetralogy of Fallot compared to natural progression. Data from Adult Congenital Heart Disease (ACHD) centres that follow up Tetralogy of Fallot patients and Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), London, United Kingdom (UK) medical records was used to establish the cost and effectiveness of current interventions. Data from a Czech cohort was used for the natural, no intervention condition. Results The average cost per patient of a repair for Tetralogy of Fallot was £26,938 (SE = £4,140). The full life time cost per patient, with no discount rate, was £65,310 (95% CI £64,981–£65,729); £56,559 discounted (95% CI £56,159–£56,960). Patients with a repair had an average of 35 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per patient over 55 years undiscounted and 20.16 QALYs discounted. If the disorder was left to take its natural course, patients on average had a total of 3 QALYs per patient with no discount rate and 2.30 QALYs discounted. Conclusion A model has been developed that provides an estimate of the value for money of an expensive repair of a congenital heart disease. The model could be used to test the cost-effectiveness of making amendments to the care pathway. PMID:23533645

  2. Positron lifetimes in deformed copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinode, Kenji; Tanigawa, Shoichiro; Doyama, Masao

    1976-01-01

    Positron lifetime measurements were performed for Cu samples with different densities of lattice defects. The lifetime spectra were successfully resolved into two components with the help of the well established analysis program. Obtained results were quite consistent with those expected from the trapping model. The positron trapping mechanism from free to trapped states and the initial condition of the model were especially checked. Deduced values obtained for tau sub(c) (lifetime of free positrons) and tau sub(t) (lifetime of trapped positrons) were 122+-5 psec and 176+-5 psec, respectively. (auth.)

  3. Lifetimes of flame balls dragged by model turbulent flows: Role of velocity gradient fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Angelo, Yves; Joulin, Guy

    2004-03-01

    An isolated combustion spot-known as a flame ball (FB)-is considered while it is advected by a turbulent flow of a lean premixture of such a light fuel as hydrogen. A Batchelor approximation for the surrounding Lagrangian flow is made. This in principle gives one an access to the FB lifetime t(life) and to its response to the ambiant Lagrangian rate-of-strain tensor g(t), by means of a nonlinear and forced integro-differential equation for the current FB radius. For a diagonal g(t) deduced from random Markov processes of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, or linearly filtered versions thereof, extensive numerical simulations and approximate theoretical analyses agree that (i) flame balls can definitely live for much longer than their time of spontaneous expansion/collapse; (ii) large enough values of t(life) are compatible with Poisson statistics; (iii) the variations of with the characteristics of g(t) mirror the latter's statistics, more precisely that of trace(g(2)). Open problems, dealing with a nondiagonal g(t), ignition-related transients and/or collective effects, finally are evoked.

  4. Activity-based costing: a practical model for cost calculation in radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lievens, Yolande; van den Bogaert, Walter; Kesteloot, Katrien

    2003-10-01

    The activity-based costing method was used to compute radiotherapy costs. This report describes the model developed, the calculated costs, and possible applications for the Leuven radiotherapy department. Activity-based costing is an advanced cost calculation technique that allocates resource costs to products based on activity consumption. In the Leuven model, a complex allocation principle with a large diversity of cost drivers was avoided by introducing an extra allocation step between activity groups and activities. A straightforward principle of time consumption, weighed by some factors of treatment complexity, was used. The model was developed in an iterative way, progressively defining the constituting components (costs, activities, products, and cost drivers). Radiotherapy costs are predominantly determined by personnel and equipment cost. Treatment-related activities consume the greatest proportion of the resource costs, with treatment delivery the most important component. This translates into products that have a prolonged total or daily treatment time being the most costly. The model was also used to illustrate the impact of changes in resource costs and in practice patterns. The presented activity-based costing model is a practical tool to evaluate the actual cost structure of a radiotherapy department and to evaluate possible resource or practice changes.

  5. Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

    1996-08-01

    This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

  6. Groundwater age and lifetime expectancy modelling approach for site characterization and performance assessment of radwaste repository in clay formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornaton, F.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. A deep geological repository of high level and long lived radwaste requires an understanding of the far field and near field groundwater flow and of the transport properties, at actual and future climatic conditions. Andra, French National radioactive waste management Agency, is developing since last 15 years an integrated multi-scale hydrogeological model of whole Paris basin of 200000 km 2 of area (regional scale) to produce a regional flow field associated to groundwater behavior. It includes locally the Meuse/Haute Marne clay site of about 250 km 2 of area in the eastern part of the Paris basin that was chosen for the emplacement of a repository. The Callovo-Oxfordian host formation is a clay layer characterized by a very low permeability of the order 10 -14 m/s, a mean thickness of 130 m at about 500 m depth, and is embedded by calcareous aquifer formations (Dogger and Oxfordian). The hydrogeological conceptual model is based on stratigraphic and petro-physic modeling of the Paris basin and is accounting for the structural, geological, hydrogeological and geochemical data in an integrated way. This model represents 27 hydrogeological units at the scale of the Paris Basin, and it is refined at the scale of the sector to represent 27 different layers that range in age from the Trias to the Portlandian. The finite element flow and transport simulator Ground Water (GW) is used to solve for groundwater flow at steady-state in a 3 Million elements model, considering current climatic conditions. The model is calibrated against about 1250 hydraulic head measurements, and results in maximum absolute hydraulic head differences of 20 meters at the regional scale and 3 meters at the local scale. The calibrated reference model includes transmissive major faults as well as structures acting as barrier to flow. Groundwater age (the time elapsed since recharge) and lifetime expectancy (the time remaining prior to exit) are

  7. A Cost-Effectiveness Model for Frail Older Persons: Development and Application to a Physiotherapy-Based Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnon, Jonathan; Afzali, Hossein Haji Ali; Putro, Gregorius Virgianto Arpuji Anggoro; Thant, Phyu Win; Dompok, Ameline; Cox, Ingrid; Chikhwaza, Owen Henry; Wang, Xian; Mwangangi, Mercy Mukui; Farransahat, Matahari; Cameron, Ian

    2017-10-01

    The clinical importance of frailty is increasing. Existing economic evaluations of interventions to manage frailty have limited time horizons, but even in older populations there may be important longer-term differences in costs and outcomes. This paper reports on the development of a cost-effectiveness model to predict publicly funded health and aged care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over the remaining lifetime of frail Australians and a model-based cost-utility analysis of a physiotherapy-based intervention for frail individuals. A cohort-based state transition (Markov) model was developed to predict costs and QALYs over the remaining lifetime of a frail population. Frailty is defined using the phenotypic definition of frailty, and the model comprises health states that describe frailty status, residential status, the experience of bone fractures and depression, and death. Model input parameters were estimated and calibrated using the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing dataset, supplemented with data from the published literature. The cost-effectiveness model was subject to a range of validation approaches, which did not negate the validity of the model. The evaluated physiotherapy-based frailty intervention has an expected incremental cost per QALY gained of Australian $8129 compared to usual care, but there is a probability of 0.3 that usual care is more effective and less costly than the intervention. Frailty reduces quality of life, is costly to manage and it's prevalence is increasing, but new approaches to managing frailty need to demonstrate value for money. The value of the reported cost-effectiveness model is illustrated through the estimation of all important costs and effects of a physiotherapy-based frailty intervention, which facilitates comparisons with funding decisions for other new technologies in Australia.

  8. A Cost Model for Storage and Weeding Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Gary S.

    1981-01-01

    Presents a simple cost model to analyze trade-offs involved in considering storage and weeding as alternatives to new construction for academic libraries. References are provided, and the Palmour cost model is presented as an appendix. (RAA)

  9. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Esteban Bardach

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer (CC and genital warts (GW are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. Methods A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Conclusions Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP per capita (104,404 VEF per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of

  10. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Garay, Osvaldo Ulises; Calderón, María; Pichón-Riviére, Andrés; Augustovski, Federico; Martí, Sebastián García; Cortiñas, Paula; Gonzalez, Marino; Naranjo, Laura T; Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Caporale, Joaquín Enzo

    2017-02-02

    Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

  11. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  12. Incorporating herd immunity effects into cohort models of vaccine cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Chris T; Anonychuk, Andrea M; Van Effelterre, Thierry; Pham, Bá Z; Merid, Maraki Fikre

    2009-01-01

    Cohort models are often used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of vaccination. However, because they cannot capture herd immunity effects, cohort models underestimate the reduction in incidence caused by vaccination. Dynamic models capture herd immunity effects but are often not adopted in vaccine CEA. The objective was to develop a pseudo-dynamic approximation that can be incorporated into an existing cohort model to capture herd immunity effects. The authors approximated changing force of infection due to universal vaccination for a pediatric infectious disease. The projected lifetime cases in a cohort were compared under 1) a cohort model, 2) a cohort model with pseudo-dynamic approximation, and 3) an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental (dynamic) model. The authors extended the methodology to sexually transmitted infections. For average to high values of vaccine coverage (P > 60%) and small to average values of the basic reproduction number (R(0) vaccination programs for many common infections, the pseudo-dynamic approximation significantly improved projected lifetime cases and was close to projections of the full dynamic model. For large values of R(0) (R(0) > 15), projected lifetime cases were similar under the dynamic model and the cohort model, both with and without pseudo-dynamic approximation. The approximation captures changes in the mean age at infection in the 1st vaccinated cohort. This methodology allows for preliminary assessment of herd immunity effects on CEA of universal vaccination for pediatric infectious diseases. The method requires simple adjustments to an existing cohort model and less data than a full dynamic model.

  13. Wilderness Recreation Demand: A Comparison of Travel Cost and On-Site Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Bowker; A. Askew; L. Seymour; J.P. Zhu; D. English; C.M. Starbuck

    2009-01-01

    This study used travel cost and on-site day cost models, coupled with the Forest Service’s National Visitor Use Monitoring data, to examine the demand for and value of recreation access to designated Wilderness.

  14. ABC model and the management of costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pravdić Predrag

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available When a company has multiple objectives at the same time, they all must be considered and balanced when making any business decisions. Linking the markets, capital and resources so as to thus ensure the highest yield is, In fact, the search for competitive advantage as a basic condition for survival in a market economy. In highly detailed systems based on the management of costs or ABC (activity based costing systems, the cost of activities often result in erroneous evaluation of aggregate costs of the action. Improvements in information technology and monitoring decrease of technology costs enabled the ABC system to become a feasible system calculating costs in many organizations.

  15. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  16. Long-lifetime Martian orbit selection using a time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.; Chow, C.-C.; Uphoff, C.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model of the time-dependent Martian atmosphere has been developed in order to accurately calculate the effects of aerodynamic drag on a low altitude satellite. The time-dependent properties of the model include solar activity effects, dust storm effects, seasonal and diurnal variations, and annual motion effects. Position effects are accounted for through Martian latitude and longitude. Expected values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and the estimated standard deviation of the mass density are provided. An example of the use of the model in selecting an orbit for the Mars Geochemical/Climatology Orbiter is given.

  17. Long-lifetime Martian orbit selection using a time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.; Chow, C.-C.; Uphoff, C.

    1984-08-01

    A mathematical model of the time-dependent Martian atmosphere has been developed in order to accurately calculate the effects of aerodynamic drag on a low altitude satellite. The time-dependent properties of the model include solar activity effects, dust storm effects, seasonal and diurnal variations, and annual motion effects. Position effects are accounted for through Martian latitude and longitude. Expected values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and the estimated standard deviation of the mass density are provided. An example of the use of the model in selecting an orbit for the Mars Geochemical/Climatology Orbiter is given.

  18. Time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere for use in orbit lifetime and sustenance studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.

    1984-01-01

    A time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere suitable for calculation of long-term aerodynamic effects on low altitude satellites is presented. The atmospheric model is both position dependent, through latitude and longitude effects, and time dependent. The time dependency includes diurnal and seasonal effects, effects of annual motion, long and short term solar activity effects, and periodic dust storm effects. Nine constituent gases are included in the model. Uncertainties in exospheric temperature, turbidity, and turbopause altitude are used to produce bounds on the expected density. A computer model - a Fortran subroutine which, when given the Julian date, Cartesian position of the sun and the spacecraft in aerocentric coordinates, returns the local values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and upper and lower bounds on the mass density is presented.

  19. Time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere for use in orbit lifetime and sustenance studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.

    1984-09-01

    A time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere suitable for calculation of long-term aerodynamic effects on low altitude satellites is presented. The atmospheric model is both position dependent, through latitude and longitude effects, and time dependent. The time dependency includes diurnal and seasonal effects, effects of annual motion, long and short term solar activity effects, and periodic dust storm effects. Nine constituent gases are included in the model. Uncertainties in exospheric temperature, turbidity, and turbopause altitude are used to produce bounds on the expected density. A computer model - a Fortran subroutine which, when given the Julian date, Cartesian position of the sun and the spacecraft in aerocentric coordinates, returns the local values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and upper and lower bounds on the mass density is presented.

  20. Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visioni, Daniele; Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Tilmes, Simone; Cionni, Irene; Di Genova, Glauco; Mancini, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Sulfate geoengineering (SG), made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a) The reflection of incoming solar radiation increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b) The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D). (c) The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-to-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d) The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4 by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate-chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM). The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 %) with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2 yr-1 starting in the year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv) and a positive indirect radiative

  1. Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Visioni

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Sulfate geoengineering (SG, made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a The reflection of incoming solar radiation increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D. (c The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-to-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere–troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4 in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4 by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate–chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM. The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 % with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2 yr−1 starting in the year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv and

  2. AN IMPROVED COCOMO SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION MODEL

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    1.20. There are 15 effort adjustment factors (EAF) to predict effort and schedule. These cost drivers are shown in Table 3. (see Appendix A.) The cost drivers are grouped into four categories: Product, computer, personnel and project. Each cost driver is rated on a six–point ordinal scale ranging from low to high importance.

  3. Preventative maintenance cycle of contact switches for nuclear power plants based on lifetime assessment and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Jie

    2010-01-01

    An approach to determine the preventive maintenance cycle was proposed in consideration of the lifetime, optimal cost and economy. Two parameters Weibull distribution was used to calculate the lifetime of contact switch. The block replacement model and age replacement model were built with the objective of optimal cost, and the preventive replacement cycle was accounted. Eight proposals for preventive replacement cycle were given. Economy model was applied to assess those proposals and the optimal proposal was confirmed. (authors)

  4. Wind turbine blade life-time assessment model for preventive planning of operation and maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

  5. Development of Business Models of Low-Cost Airlines

    OpenAIRE

    Andrija Vidović; Igor Štimac; Damir Vince

    2013-01-01

    The global economic crisis that affects all industries, including the aviation industry, has forced airlines to adjust their business models to existing market conditions. Low-cost airlines, which till the onset of economic crises in most cases followed the base low-cost business model, have adapted their business model in such a way that they have implemented segments of traditional airlines business models and thus created a hybrid between traditional and low-cost business models. This pape...

  6. APT cost scaling: Preliminary indications from a Parametric Costing Model (PCM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    A Parametric Costing Model has been created and evaluate as a first step in quantitatively understanding important design options for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) concept. This model couples key economic and technical elements of APT in a two-parameter search of beam energy and beam power that minimizes costs within a range of operating constraints. The costing and engineering depth of the Parametric Costing Model is minimal at the present open-quotes entry levelclose quotes, and is intended only to demonstrate a potential for a more-detailed, cost-based integrating design tool. After describing the present basis of the Parametric Costing Model and giving an example of a single parametric scaling run derived therefrom, the impacts of choices related to resistive versus superconducting accelerator structures and cost of electricity versus plant availability (open-quotes load curveclose quotes) are reported. Areas of further development and application are suggested

  7. Communications network design and costing model programmers manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, K. P.; Somes, S. S.; Clark, C. A.

    1983-01-01

    Otpimization algorithms and techniques used in the communications network design and costing model for least cost route and least cost network problems are examined from the programmer's point of view. All system program modules, the data structures within the model, and the files which make up the data base are described.

  8. Characterization and Lifetime Performance Modeling of Acrylic Foam Tape for Structural Glazing Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Townsend, Benjamin William

    2008-01-01

    This thesis presents the results of testing and modeling conducted to characterize the performance of 3Mâ ¢ VHBâ ¢ structural glazing tape in both shear and tension. Creep rupture testing results provided the failure time at a given static load and temperature, and ramp-to-fail testing results provided the ultimate load resistance at a given rate of strain and temperature. Parallel testing was conducted on three structural silicone sealants to compare performance. Using the time temperature ...

  9. An upgraded drift–diffusion model for evaluating the carrier lifetimes in radiation-damaged semiconductor detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Lopez, J., E-mail: fjgl@us.es [Dept of Atomic, Molecular and Nuclear Physics, University of Sevilla, Av. Reina Mercedes s/n, 41012 Sevilla (Spain); CNA (U. Sevilla, J. Andalucia, CSIC), Av. Thomas A. Edison 7, 41092 Sevilla (Spain); Jimenez-Ramos, M.C.; Rodriguez-Ramos, M. [CNA (U. Sevilla, J. Andalucia, CSIC), Av. Thomas A. Edison 7, 41092 Sevilla (Spain); Forneris, J. [Physics Dept./NIS Centre, University of Torino, INFN-Sez. di Torino, via P. Giuria 1, 10125 Torino (Italy); Ceballos, J. [Institute of Microelectronics of Seville, IMSE-CNM (CSIC/University of Seville), Seville 41092 (Spain)

    2016-03-15

    The transport properties of a series of n- and p-type Si diodes have been studied by the ion beam induced charge (IBIC) technique using a 4 MeV proton microbeam. The samples were irradiated with 17 MeV protons at fluences ranging from 1 × 10{sup 12} to 1 × 10{sup 13} p/cm{sup 2} in order to produce a uniform profile of defects with depth. The analysis of the charge collection efficiency (CCE) as a function of the reverse bias voltage has been carried out using an upgraded drift–diffusion (D–D) model which takes into account the possibility of carrier recombination not only in the neutral substrate, as the simple D–D model assumes, but also within the depletion region. This new approach for calculating the CCE is fundamental when the drift length of carriers cannot be considered as much greater that the thickness of the detector due to the ion induced damage. From our simulations, we have obtained the values of the carrier lifetimes for the pristine and irradiated diodes, which have allowed us to calculate the effective trapping cross sections using the one dimension Shockley–Read–Hall model. The results of our calculations have been compared to the data obtained using a recently developed Monte Carlo code for the simulation of IBIC analysis, based on the probabilistic interpretation of the excess carrier continuity equations.

  10. Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...... for amore efficient use of resources for digital curation. To facilitate and clarify the model evaluation the report first outlines a basic terminology and a generaldescription of the characteristics of cost and benefit models.The report then describes how the ten current and emerging cost and benefit...

  11. Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deman, G.; Konakli, K.; Sudret, B.; Kerrou, J.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

    2016-01-01

    The study makes use of polynomial chaos expansions to compute Sobol' indices within the frame of a global sensitivity analysis of hydro-dispersive parameters in a simplified vertical cross-section of a segment of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Applying conservative ranges, the uncertainty in 78 input variables is propagated upon the mean lifetime expectancy of water molecules departing from a specific location within a highly confining layer situated in the middle of the model domain. Lifetime expectancy is a hydrogeological performance measure pertinent to safety analysis with respect to subsurface contaminants, such as radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the variability in the mean lifetime expectancy can be sufficiently explained by the uncertainty in the petrofacies, i.e. the sets of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, of only a few layers of the model. The obtained results provide guidance regarding the uncertainty modeling in future investigations employing detailed numerical models of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Moreover, the study demonstrates the high efficiency of sparse polynomial chaos expansions in computing Sobol' indices for high-dimensional models. - Highlights: • Global sensitivity analysis of a 2D 15-layer groundwater flow model is conducted. • A high-dimensional random input comprising 78 parameters is considered. • The variability in the mean lifetime expectancy for the central layer is examined. • Sparse polynomial chaos expansions are used to compute Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The petrofacies of a few layers can sufficiently explain the response variance.

  12. Cost Analysis of Prenatal Care Using the Activity-Based Costing Model: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesse, Theresa; Golembeski, Susan; Potter, Jonell

    1999-01-01

    The cost of prenatal care in a private nurse-midwifery practice was examined using the activity-based costing system. Findings suggest that the activities of the nurse-midwife (the health care provider) constitute the major cost driver of this practice and that the model of care and associated, time-related activities influence the cost. This pilot study information will be used in the development of a comparative study of prenatal care, client education, and self care. PMID:22945985

  13. Bayesian models for cost-effectiveness analysis in the presence of structural zero costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca

    2014-05-20

    Bayesian modelling for cost-effectiveness data has received much attention in both the health economics and the statistical literature, in recent years. Cost-effectiveness data are characterised by a relatively complex structure of relationships linking a suitable measure of clinical benefit (e.g. quality-adjusted life years) and the associated costs. Simplifying assumptions, such as (bivariate) normality of the underlying distributions, are usually not granted, particularly for the cost variable, which is characterised by markedly skewed distributions. In addition, individual-level data sets are often characterised by the presence of structural zeros in the cost variable. Hurdle models can be used to account for the presence of excess zeros in a distribution and have been applied in the context of cost data. We extend their application to cost-effectiveness data, defining a full Bayesian specification, which consists of a model for the individual probability of null costs, a marginal model for the costs and a conditional model for the measure of effectiveness (given the observed costs). We presented the model using a working example to describe its main features. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Cost damping and functional form in transport models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2016-01-01

    take different forms and be represented as a non-linear-in-parameter form such as the well-known Box–Cox function. However, it could also be specified as non-linear-in-cost but linear-in-parameter forms, which are easier to estimate and improve model fit without increasing the number of parameters....... The specific contributions of the paper are as follows. Firstly, we discuss the phenomenon of cost damping in details and specifically why it occurs. Secondly, we provide a test of damping and an easy assessment of the (linear) damping rate for any variable by estimating two auxiliary linear models. This turns......Transport models allowing for cost damping are characterised by marginally decreasing cost sensitivities in demand. As a result, cost damping is a model extension of the simple linear-in-cost model requiring an appropriate non-linear link function between utility and cost. The link function may...

  15. Capital Cost Optimization for Prefabrication: A Factor Analysis Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High capital cost is a significant hindrance to the promotion of prefabrication. In order to optimize cost management and reduce capital cost, this study aims to explore the latent factors and factor analysis evaluation model. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore potential variables and then questionnaire survey was employed to collect professionals’ views on their effects. After data collection, exploratory factor analysis was adopted to explore the latent factors. Seven latent factors were identified, including “Management Index”, “Construction Dissipation Index”, “Productivity Index”, “Design Efficiency Index”, “Transport Dissipation Index”, “Material increment Index” and “Depreciation amortization Index”. With these latent factors, a factor analysis evaluation model (FAEM, divided into factor analysis model (FAM and comprehensive evaluation model (CEM, was established. The FAM was used to explore the effect of observed variables on the high capital cost of prefabrication, while the CEM was used to evaluate comprehensive cost management level on prefabrication projects. Case studies were conducted to verify the models. The results revealed that collaborative management had a positive effect on capital cost of prefabrication. Material increment costs and labor costs had significant impacts on production cost. This study demonstrated the potential of on-site management and standardization design to reduce capital cost. Hence, collaborative management is necessary for cost management of prefabrication. Innovation and detailed design were needed to improve cost performance. The new form of precast component factories can be explored to reduce transportation cost. Meanwhile, targeted strategies can be adopted for different prefabrication projects. The findings optimized the capital cost and improved the cost performance through providing an evaluation and optimization model, which helps managers to

  16. Establishment of primary cultures for mouse ameloblasts as a model of their lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzawa, Tetsuo; Itoh, Nao; Takahashi, Naoyuki; Katagiri, Takenobu; Morimura, Naoko; Kobayashi, Yasuna; Yamamoto, Toshinori; Kamijo, Ryutaro

    2006-01-01

    To understand how the properties of ameloblasts are spatiotemporally regulated during amelogenesis, two primary cultures of ameloblasts in different stages of differentiation were established from mouse enamel epithelium. Mouse primary ameloblasts (MPAs) prepared from immature enamel epithelium (MPA-I) could proliferate, whereas those from mature enamel epithelium (MPA-M) could not. MPA-M but not MPA-I caused apoptosis during culture. The mRNA expression of amelogenin, a marker of immature ameloblasts, was down-regulated, and that of enamel matrix serine proteiase-1, a marker of mature ameloblasts, was induced in MPA-I during culture. Using green fluorescence protein as a reporter, a visualized reporter system was established to analyze the promoter activity of the amelogenin gene. The region between -1102 bp and -261 bp was required for the reporter expression in MPA-I. These results suggest that MPAs are valuable in vitro models for investigation of ameloblast biology, and that the visualized system is useful for promoter analysis in MPAs

  17. Lifetime-dependent effects of bisphenol A on asthma development in an experimental mouse model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Petzold

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Environmental factors are thought to contribute significantly to the increase of asthma prevalence in the last two decades. Bisphenol A (BPA is a xenoestrogen commonly used in consumer products and the plastic industry. There is evidence and an ongoing discussion that endocrine disruptors like BPA may affect human health and also exert alterations on in the immune system. The aim of this study was to investigate age-dependent effects of BPA on the asthma risk using a murine model to explain the controversial results reported till date. METHODS: BALB/c mice were exposed to BPA via the drinking water for different time periods including pregnancy and breastfeeding. To induce an asthma phenotype, mice were sensitized to ovalbumin (OVA, followed by an intrapulmonary allergen challenge. RESULTS: BPA exposure during pregnancy and breastfeeding had no significant effect on asthma development in the offspring. In contrast, lifelong exposure from birth until the last antigen challenge clearly increased eosinophilic inflammation in the lung, airway hyperreactivity and antigen-specific serum IgE levels in OVA-sensitized adult mice compared to mice without BPA exposure. Surprisingly, BPA intake during the sensitization period significantly reduced the development of allergic asthma. This effect was reversed in the presence of a glucocorticoid receptor antagonist. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that the impact of BPA on asthma risk is strongly age-dependent and ranges from asthma-promoting to asthma-reducing effects. This could explain the diversity of results from previous studies regarding the observed health impact of BPA.

  18. A Deterministic Inventory/Production Model with General Inventory Cost Rate Function and Concave Production Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); Z.P. Bayindir (Pelin)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe present a thorough analysis of the economic order quantity model with shortages under a general inventory cost rate function and concave production costs. By using some standard results from convex analysis, we show that the model exhibits a composite concave-convex structure.

  19. Global well-posedness of infectious disease models without life-time immunity: the cases of cholera and avian influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Kazuo

    2017-10-27

    We study the systems of partial differential equations with diffusion that model the dynamics of infectious diseases without life-time immunity, in particular the cases of cholera from Wang & Wang (2015, J. Biol. Dyn., 9, 233-261) and avian influenza from Vaidya et al. (2012, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 17, 2829-2848). In both works, similarly to all others in the literature on various models of infectious diseases and more, it had to be assumed for a technical reason that the diffusivity coefficients of the susceptible, infected and recovered individuals, humans or birds, had to be identical in order to prove the existence of their unique solutions for all time. Considering that such uniform diffusivity strengths among the susceptible, infected and recovered hosts may not always be plausible in real world, we investigate the global well-posedness issue when such conditions are relaxed. In particular for the cholera model from Wang & Wang (2015, J. Biol. Dyn., 9, 233-261), we prove the global well-posedness with no condition on the diffusivity coefficients at all. For the avian influenza model from Vaidya et al. (2012, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 17, 2829-2848), we prove the global well-posedness with no condition on the diffusivity coefficients if the spatial dimension is one, and under a partial condition that the diffusivity coefficients of the susceptible and the infected hosts are same otherwise. © The author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  20. A microscopic description of the S-wave πN-scattering lengths and the (pπ-)-atom lifetime in the quark confinement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Rusetskij, A.G.

    1989-01-01

    The S-wave πN-scattering lengths and the (pπ - )-atom lifetime are in the quark confinement model. Nucleon is treated as a quark-diquark system. The fulfillment of the Weinberg-Tomozawa relations is checked. The agreement is achieved with the experiment and with the results obtained within other approaches. 32 refs.; 5 figs.; 2 tabs

  1. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  2. Cost-effectiveness of an HPV self-collection campaign in Uganda: comparing models for delivery of cervical cancer screening in a low-income setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, Nicole G; Tsu, Vivien; Jeronimo, Jose; Njama-Meya, Denise; Mvundura, Mercy; Kim, Jane J

    2017-09-01

    With the availability of a low-cost HPV DNA test that can be administered by either a healthcare provider or a woman herself, programme planners require information on the costs and cost-effectiveness of implementing cervical cancer screening programmes in low-resource settings under different models of healthcare delivery. Using data from the START-UP demonstration project and a micro-costing approach, we estimated the health and economic impact of once-in-a-lifetime HPV self-collection campaign relative to clinic-based provider-collection of HPV specimens in Uganda. We used an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model of the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer to estimate lifetime health and economic outcomes associated with screening with HPV DNA testing once in a lifetime (clinic-based provider-collection vs a self-collection campaign). Test performance and cost data were obtained from the START-UP demonstration project using a micro-costing approach. Model outcomes included lifetime risk of cervical cancer, total lifetime costs (in 2011 international dollars [I$]), and life expectancy. Cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). When both strategies achieved 75% population coverage, ICERs were below Uganda's per capita GDP (self-collection: I$80 per year of life saved [YLS]; provider-collection: I$120 per YLS). When the self-collection campaign achieved coverage gains of 15-20%, it was more effective than provider-collection, and had a lower ICER unless coverage with both strategies was 50% or less. Findings were sensitive to cryotherapy compliance among screen-positive women and relative HPV test performance. The primary limitation of this analysis is that self-collection costs are based on a hypothetical campaign but are based on unit costs from Uganda. Once-in-a-lifetime screening with HPV self-collection may be very cost-effective and reduce cervical cancer risk by > 20% if coverage is high

  3. Costs of health care across primary care models in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laberge, Maude; Wodchis, Walter P; Barnsley, Jan; Laporte, Audrey

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between newly introduced primary care models in Ontario, Canada, and patients' primary care and total health care costs. A specific focus is on the payment mechanisms for primary care physicians, i.e. fee-for-service (FFS), enhanced-FFS, and blended capitation, and whether providers practiced as part of a multidisciplinary team. Utilization data for a one year period was measured using administrative databases for a 10% sample selected at random from the Ontario adult population. Primary care and total health care costs were calculated at the individual level and included costs from physician services, hospital visits and admissions, long term care, drugs, home care, lab tests, and visits to non-medical health care providers. Generalized linear model regressions were conducted to assess the differences in costs between primary care models. Patients not enrolled with a primary care physicians were younger, more likely to be males and of lower socio-economic status. Patients in blended capitation models were healthier and wealthier than FFS and enhanced-FFS patients. Primary care and total health care costs were significantly different across Ontario primary care models. Using the traditional FFS as the reference, we found that patients in the enhanced-FFS models had the lowest total health care costs, and also the lowest primary care costs. Patients in the blended capitation models had higher primary care costs but lower total health care costs. Patients that were in multidisciplinary teams (FHT), where physicians are also paid on a blended capitation basis, had higher total health care costs than non-FHT patients but still lower than the FFS reference group. Primary care and total health care costs increased with patients' age, morbidity, and lower income quintile across all primary care payment types. The new primary care models were associated with lower total health care costs for patients compared to the

  4. Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-02

    improved sample sizes and initial screening results. This analysis revealed that nonlinear behavior was evident in both TI and SH cost and schedule...MODELING FOR EARLY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ix behavior . However, if planned SH and TI levels are known, multivariate models applying both predictor...Cost and Schedule Models,” Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 7, no. 3 (2014): 160–179. THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY APPLIED PHYSICS LABORATORY2

  5. Multivariable parametric cost model for space and ground telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd

    2016-09-01

    Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost (X) D (1.75 +/- 0.05) λ (-0.5 +/- 0.25) T-0.25 e (-0.04) Y Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

  6. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  7. Construction cost forecast model : model documentation and technical notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Construction cost indices are generally estimated with Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indices that allow changes : in the quantities of construction bid items, as well as changes in price to change the cost indices of those items. : These cost indices...

  8. SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL MANUFACTURING COST MODEL: SIMULATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PERFORMANCE, MANUFACTURING, AND COST OF PRODUCTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eric J. Carlson; Yong Yang; Chandler Fulton

    2004-04-20

    The successful commercialization of fuel cells will depend on the achievement of competitive system costs and efficiencies. System cost directly impacts the capital equipment component of cost of electricity (COE) and is a major contributor to the O and M component. The replacement costs for equipment (also heavily influenced by stack life) is generally a major contributor to O and M costs. In this project, they worked with the SECA industrial teams to estimate the impact of general manufacturing issues of interest on stack cost using an activities-based cost model for anode-supported planar SOFC stacks with metallic interconnects. An earlier model developed for NETL for anode supported planar SOFCs was enhanced by a linkage to a performance/thermal/mechanical model, by addition of Quality Control steps to the process flow with specific characterization methods, and by assessment of economies of scale. The 3-dimensional adiabatic performance model was used to calculate the average power density for the assumed geometry and operating conditions (i.e., inlet and exhaust temperatures, utilization, and fuel composition) based on publicly available polarizations curves. The SECA team provided guidance on what manufacturing and design issues should be assessed in this Phase I demonstration of cost modeling capabilities. They considered the impact of the following parameters on yield and cost: layer thickness (i.e., anode, electrolyte, and cathode) on cost and stress levels, statistical nature of ceramic material failure on yield, and Quality Control steps and strategies. In this demonstration of the capabilities of the linked model, only the active stack (i.e., anode, electrolyte, and cathode) and interconnect materials were included in the analysis. Factory costs are presented on an area and kilowatt basis to allow developers to extrapolate to their level of performance, stack design, materials, seal and system configurations, and internal corporate overheads and margin

  9. Fluorescence lifetime imaging using light emitting diodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, Gordon T; Munro, Ian; Poher, Vincent; French, Paul M W; Neil, Mark A A; Elson, Daniel S; Hares, Jonathan D

    2008-01-01

    We demonstrate flexible use of low cost, high-power light emitting diodes as illumination sources for fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM). Both time-domain and frequency-domain techniques have been implemented at wavelengths spanning the range 450-640 nm. Additionally, we demonstrate optically sectioned fluorescence lifetime imaging by combining structured illumination with frequency-domain FLIM

  10. A parametric costing model for wave energy technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the philosophy and technical approach to a parametric cost model for offshore wave energy systems. Consideration is given both to existing known devices and other devices yet to be conceptualised. The report is complementary to a spreadsheet based cost estimating model. The latter permits users to derive capital cost estimates using either inherent default data or user provided data, if a particular scheme provides sufficient design definition for more accurate estimation. The model relies on design default data obtained from wave energy device designs and a set of specifically collected cost data. (author)

  11. Decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to compare prostate cryotherapy to androgen deprivation therapy for treatment of radiation recurrent prostate cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Kathleen A; Jones, Rob J; Paul, Jim; Birrell, Fiona; Briggs, Andrew H; Leung, Hing Y

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of salvage cryotherapy (SC) in men with radiation recurrent prostate cancer (RRPC). Design Cost-utility analysis using decision analytic modelling by a Markov model. Setting and methods Compared SC and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in a cohort of patients with RRPC (biopsy proven local recurrence, no evidence of metastatic disease). A literature review captured published data to inform the decision model, and resource use data were from the Scottish Prostate Cryotherapy Service. The model was run in monthly cycles for RRPC men, mean age of 70 years. The model was run over the patient lifetime, to assess changes in patient health states and the associated quality of life, survival and cost impacts. Results are reported in terms of the discounted incremental costs and discounted incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained between the 2 alternative interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis used a 10 000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Results SC has a high upfront treatment cost, but delays the ongoing monthly cost of ADT. SC is the dominant strategy over the patient lifetime; it is more effective with an incremental 0.56 QALY gain (95% CI 0.28 to 0.87), and less costly with a reduced lifetime cost of £29 719 (€37 619) (95% CI −51 985 to −9243). For a ceiling ratio of £30 000, SC has a 100% probability to be cost-effective. The cost neutral point was at 3.5 years, when the upfront cost of SC (plus any subsequent cumulative cost of side effects and ADT) equates the cumulative cost in the ADT arm. Limitations of our model may arise from its insensitivity to parameter or structural uncertainty. Conclusions The platform for SC versus ADT cost-effective analysis can be employed to evaluate other treatment modalities or strategies in RRPC. SC is the dominant strategy, costing less over a patient's lifetime with improvements in QALYs. Trial registration number This economic analysis

  12. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  13. An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

  14. Parametric cost model for solar space power and DIPS systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meisl, C.J.

    1993-01-01

    A detailed cost model has been developed to parametrically determine the program development and production cost of (1) photovoltaic, (2) solar dynamic and (3) dynamic isotope (DIPS) space power systems. The model is applicable in the net electrical power range of 3 to 300 kWe for solar power, and 0.5 to 10 kWe for DIPS. Application of the cost model allows spacecraft or space-based power system architecture and design trade studies or budgetary forecasting and cost benefit analyses. The cost model considers all major power subsystems (i.e., power generation, power conversion, energy storage, thermal management, and power management/distribution/control). It also considers system cost effects such as integration, testing, management, etc. The cost breakdown structure, model assumptions, ground rules, bases, Cost Estimation Relationship (CER) format and rationale are presented, and the application of the cost model to 100-kWe solar space power plants and to a 1.0-kWe DIPS are demonstrated

  15. Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Han P.; Freeman, William (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to

  16. A RECREATION OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON THE TRAVEL COST METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    Hof, John G.; Loomis, John B.

    1983-01-01

    A recreation allocation model is developed which efficiently selects recreation areas and degree of development from an array of proposed and existing sites. The model does this by maximizing the difference between gross recreation benefits and travel, investment, management, and site-opportunity costs. The model presented uses the Travel Cost Method for estimating recreation benefits within an operations research framework. The model is applied to selection of potential wilderness areas in C...

  17. The Susquehanna plant lifetime excellence program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNamara, R.W.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses how the Susquehanna plant lifetime excellence program (SPLEX) blends many of the objectives of a new managing for excellence program with plant life extension objectives to achieve excellence in the lifetime operation and availability of the two-unit Susquehanna steam electric station. Investments in lifetime excellence improvements will provide near-term, as well as plant life extension, benefits. A high-quality lifetime experience record, together with extensive, periodic technical assessments and cost-benefit analyses, will provide conclusive justification for future extensions of the unit operating licenses

  18. Communications network design and costing model users manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, K. P.; Somes, S. S.; Clark, C. A.

    1983-01-01

    The information and procedures needed to exercise the communications network design and costing model for performing network analysis are presented. Specific procedures are included for executing the model on the NASA Lewis Research Center IBM 3033 computer. The concepts, functions, and data bases relating to the model are described. Model parameters and their format specifications for running the model are detailed.

  19. Lifetime-management and lifetime-extension at PAKS nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katona, Tamas; Ratkai, Sandor; Janosi, Agnes Biro

    2002-01-01

    core might be necessary with 50% probability. Annealing is not a cost critical method and it has been successfully applied in the practice of VVER plants (i.e. Finland and Slovakia). The study indicates that the steam generators are very important and critical equipment at VVER/440/213 type units. Stress corrosion cracking of heat-transfer tubes shall be considered also in case of steam generators. Considering the effects of already implemented measures, e.g. main turbine-condenser replacement, copper removing, protecting the secondary side of steam generators, replacement of steam generators can be excluded also in case of 50 years of operation. However, local corrosion effects appearing on the secondary side shall be monitored even in case of high PH water regime, transport of erosion products into the steam generator shall be minimised, for example by means of correct selection of the structural materials during replacement of high pressure preheaters. Business model of the lifetime extension covered incomes, expenses and financing. The costs of plant life management and lifetime extension have been estimated conservatively. The market conditions, including liberalisation of the electrical power market have been taken into account. The business analysis shows that the plant lifetime extension is a reasonable business decision. Based on the results of the feasibility study and the public acceptance of extended operation NPP Paks launched a project to elaborate on the plant lifetime management programme and preparation of the necessary licence renewal. The current ageing-management programme of the Paks NPP shall be reviewed and extended to the required scope of SSC (passive long living items). Programme for maintaining the environmental qualification of equipment has to be elaborated on and implemented. Simultaneous to the preparation of the license renewal new requirements shall be implemented in the field of maintenance, also. The plant lifetime extension might

  20. A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Hayes

    2015-01-01

    As bitcoin becomes more important as a worldwide financial phenomenon, it also becomes important to understand its sources of value formation. There are three ways to obtain bitcoins: buy them outright, accept them in exchange, or else produce them by 'mining'. Mining employs computational effort which requires electrical consumption for operation. The cost of electricity per kWh, the efficiency of mining as measured by watts per unit of mining effort, the market price of bitcoin, and the dif...

  1. Waste management facilities cost information: System cost model product description. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundeen, A.S.; Hsu, K.M.; Shropshire, D.E.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities

  2. Measurement of b hadron lifetimes and effective lifetimes at LHCb

    CERN Document Server

    Eklund, E

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents two recent measurements of b-hadron lifetimes, using 1 fb$^{-1}$ of data collected by LHCb. The effective lifetime of the $B_{s} \\to J/\\Psi K_{S}$ decay is measured and found to be $\\tau_{B_{s} \\to J/\\Psi K_{S}}^{\\rm{eff}} = 1.75 \\pm 0.12~(\\rm{stat})~0.07~(\\rm{syst})~\\rm{ps}$. The result is compatible with the Standard Model prediction and is the first measurement of this quantity. The $\\Lambda_{b}$ lifetime is measured in the $\\Lambda_{b} \\to J/\\Psi p K$ decay using the same data set. The measured quantity is the difference in reciprocal lifetimes of the $B^0$ and $\\Lambda^0_b$ hadrons and found to be $1/\\tau_{\\Lambda_{b}} - 1/\\tau_{B_{d}}= 16.4 \\pm 8.2 \\pm 4.4~\\rm{ns^{-1}}$. Using the world average of the $B^0$ lifetime, this translates into a lifetime ratio of $\\tau_{\\Lambda_{b}}/\\tau_{B_{d}} = 0.976 \\pm 0.012 \\pm 0.006$, which is the precise measurement of this quantity to date.

  3. Renewable Energy Cost Modeling. A Toolkit for Establishing Cost-Based Incentives in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gifford, Jason S. [Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC, Framington, MA (United States); Grace, Robert C. [Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC, Framington, MA (United States); Rickerson, Wilson H. [Meister Consultants Group, Inc., Boston, MA (United States)

    2011-05-01

    This report serves as a resource for policymakers who wish to learn more about levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculations, including cost-based incentives. The report identifies key renewable energy cost modeling options, highlights the policy implications of choosing one approach over the other, and presents recommendations on the optimal characteristics of a model to calculate rates for cost-based incentives, FITs, or similar policies. These recommendations shaped the design of NREL's Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST), which is used by state policymakers, regulators, utilities, developers, and other stakeholders to assist with analyses of policy and renewable energy incentive payment structures. Authored by Jason S. Gifford and Robert C. Grace of Sustainable Energy Advantage LLC and Wilson H. Rickerson of Meister Consultants Group, Inc.

  4. The System Cost Model: A tool for life cycle cost and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, K.; Lundeen, A.; Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors began development of the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing waste management facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new TSD facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. A complement to the SCM is the System Cost Model-Risk (SCM-R) model, which provides relative Environmental, Safety, and Health (ES and H) risk information. A relative ES and H risk basis has been developed and applied by LITCO at the INEL. The risk basis is now being automated in the SCM-R to facilitate rapid risk analysis of system alternatives. The added risk functionality will allow combined cost and risk evaluation of EM alternatives

  5. Comparative study of cost models for tokamak DEMO fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oishi, Tetsutarou; Yamazaki, Kozo; Arimoto, Hideki; Ban, Kanae; Kondo, Takuya; Tobita, Kenji; Goto, Takuya

    2012-01-01

    Cost evaluation analysis of the tokamak-type demonstration reactor DEMO using the PEC (physics-engineering-cost) system code is underway to establish a cost evaluation model for the DEMO reactor design. As a reference case, a DEMO reactor with reference to the SSTR (steady state tokamak reactor) was designed using PEC code. The calculated total capital cost was in the same order of that proposed previously in cost evaluation studies for the SSTR. Design parameter scanning analysis and multi regression analysis illustrated the effect of parameters on the total capital cost. The capital cost was predicted to be inside the range of several thousands of M$s in this study. (author)

  6. Life Cycle Costing Model for Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    To ensure sustainability of solid waste management, there is a need for cost assessment models which are consistent with environmental and social assessments. However, there is a current lack of standardized terminology and methodology to evaluate economic performances and this complicates...... LCC, e.g. waste generator, waste operator and public finances and the perspective often defines the systemboundaries of the study, e.g. waste operators often focus on her/his own cost, i.e. technology based,whereas waste generators and public finances often focus on the entire waste system, i.......e. system based. Figure 1 illustrates the proposed modeling framework that distinguishes between: a) budget cost, b) externality costs and 3) transfers and defines unit costs of each technology (per ton of input waste). Unitcosts are afterwards combined with a mass balance to calculate the technology cost...

  7. COST OF QUALITY MODELS AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION IN MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.M. Vaxevanidis

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve quality, an organization must take into account the costs associated with achieving quality since the objective of continuous improvement programs is not only to meet customer requirements, but also to do it at the lowest, possible, cost. This can only obtained by reducing the costs needed to achieve quality, and the reduction of these costs is only possible if they are identified and measured. Therefore, measuring and reporting the cost of quality (CoQ should be considered an important issue for achieving quality excellence. To collect quality costs an organization needs to adopt a framework to classify costs; however, there is no general agreement on a single broad definition of quality costs. CoQ is usually understood as the sum of conformance plus non-conformance costs, where cost of conformance is the price paid for prevention of poor quality (for example, inspection and quality appraisal and cost of non-conformance is the cost of poor quality caused by product and service failure (for example, rework and returns. The objective of this paper is to give a survey of research articles on the topic of CoQ; it opens with a literature review focused on existing CoQ models; then, it briefly presents the most common CoQ parameters and the metrics (indices used for monitoring CoQ. Finally, the use of CoQ models in practice, i.e., the implementation of a quality costing system and cost of quality reporting in companies is discussed, with emphasis in cases concerning manufacturing firms.

  8. Batteries 2020 – Lithium - ion battery first and second life ageing, validated battery models, lifetime modelling and ageing assessment of thermal parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timmermans, Jean-Marc; Nikolian, Alexandros; De Hoog, Joris

    2016-01-01

    The European Project “Batteries 2020” unites nine partners jointly working on research and the development of competitive European automotive batteries. The project aims at increasing both the energy density and lifetime of large format pouch lithium-ion batteries towards the goals targeted...... for automotive batteries (250 Wh/kg at cell level, over 4000 cycles at 80% depth of discharge). Three parallel strategies are followed in order to achieve those targets: (i) Highly focused materials development; two improved generations of NMC cathode materials allows to improve the performance, stability...... and cyclability of state of the art battery cells. (ii) Better understanding of the ageing phenomena; a robust and realistic testing methodology has been developed and was carried out. Combined accelerated, real driving cycle tests, real field data, post - mortem analysis, modelling and validation with real...

  9. Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

  10. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling, Version 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  11. Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl. H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda

    2011-01-01

    Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost models

  12. Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the

  13. Business Models for Cost Sharing & Capability Sustainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-18

    Masanell and Ricart (2010), we can arrive at the working definition of a business model used in this report, namely, that a business model is a...capabilities over a long time frame. In order to identify the key factors in the Harrier RTI success, a SWOT analysis was carried out. The results are shown in...Table 1. Table 1. SWOT Analysis of Harrier Strengths - Small team - UK/BAE controlled - RTI Weaknesses - Small program—little

  14. Modeling the lowest-cost splitting of a herd of cows by optimizing a cost function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajamannage, Kelum; Bollt, Erik M.; Porter, Mason A.; Dawkins, Marian S.

    2017-06-01

    Animals live in groups to defend against predation and to obtain food. However, for some animals—especially ones that spend long periods of time feeding—there are costs if a group chooses to move on before their nutritional needs are satisfied. If the conflict between feeding and keeping up with a group becomes too large, it may be advantageous for some groups of animals to split into subgroups with similar nutritional needs. We model the costs and benefits of splitting in a herd of cows using a cost function that quantifies individual variation in hunger, desire to lie down, and predation risk. We model the costs associated with hunger and lying desire as the standard deviations of individuals within a group, and we model predation risk as an inverse exponential function of the group size. We minimize the cost function over all plausible groups that can arise from a given herd and study the dynamics of group splitting. We examine how the cow dynamics and cost function depend on the parameters in the model and consider two biologically-motivated examples: (1) group switching and group fission in a herd of relatively homogeneous cows, and (2) a herd with an equal number of adult males (larger animals) and adult females (smaller animals).

  15. NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

    2011-01-01

    NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

  16. B meson lifetime measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piccolo, M.

    1989-01-01

    The lifetime of hadrons containing b-quark has been the subject of extensive experimental work and theoretical speculation; its importance is due to implications on some of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model, such as the top quark mass and the mixing angles. Since the pioneer measurements of the MAC and MARK II collaborations at PEP in 1983 the progress has been impressive; but many issues still remain open and await further study. In this paper the field's present status is discussed. An overview of the theoretical motivations for this measurements in the Standard Model framework is done. Then the experimental techniques used are reviewed, emphasizing the most recent measurements. A comparison of the results obtained is done and systematic errors are discussed. In conclusion there are some remarks on the further developments foreseen in the near future

  17. How much does it cost? The LIFE Project - Costing Models for Digital Curation and Preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Davies

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Digital preservation is concerned with the long-term safekeeping of electronic resources. How can we be confident of their permanence, if we do not know the cost of preservation? The LIFE (Lifecycle Information for E-Literature Project has made a major step forward in understanding the long-term costs in this complex area. The LIFE Project has developed a methodology to model the digital lifecycle and to calculate the costs of preserving digital information for the next 5, 10 or 100 years. National and higher education (HE libraries can now apply this process and plan effectively for the preservation of their digital collections. Based on previous work undertaken on the lifecycles of paper-based materials, the LIFE Project created a lifecycle model and applied it to real-life digital collections across a diverse subject range. Three case studies examined the everyday operations, processes and costs involved in their respective activities. The results were then used to calculate the direct costs for each element of the digital lifecycle. The Project has made major advances in costing preservation activities, as well as making detailed costs of real digital preservation activities available. The second phase of LIFE (LIFE2, which recently started, aims to refine the lifecycle methodology and to add a greater range and breadth to the project with additional exemplar case studies.

  18. Generomak: Fusion physics, engineering and costing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Krakowski, R.A.; Sheffield, J.; Dory, R.A.

    1988-06-01

    A generic fusion physics, engineering and economics model (Generomak) was developed as a means of performing consistent analysis of the economic viability of alternative magnetic fusion reactors. The original Generomak model developed at Oak Ridge by Sheffield was expanded for the analyses of the Senior Committee on Environmental Safety and Economics of Magnetic Fusion Energy (ESECOM). This report describes the Generomak code as used by ESECOM. The input data used for each of the ten ESECOM fusion plants and the Generomak code output for each case is given. 14 refs., 3 figs., 17 tabs

  19. Communications network design and costing model technical manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, K. P.; Somes, S. S.; Clark, C. A.

    1983-01-01

    This computer model provides the capability for analyzing long-haul trunking networks comprising a set of user-defined cities, traffic conditions, and tariff rates. Networks may consist of all terrestrial connectivity, all satellite connectivity, or a combination of terrestrial and satellite connectivity. Network solutions provide the least-cost routes between all cities, the least-cost network routing configuration, and terrestrial and satellite service cost totals. The CNDC model allows analyses involving three specific FCC-approved tariffs, which are uniquely structured and representative of most existing service connectivity and pricing philosophies. User-defined tariffs that can be variations of these three tariffs are accepted as input to the model and allow considerable flexibility in network problem specification. The resulting model extends the domain of network analysis from traditional fixed link cost (distance-sensitive) problems to more complex problems involving combinations of distance and traffic-sensitive tariffs.

  20. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  1. Estimation of traffic accident costs: a prompted model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, Rokhshad; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Radam, Alias; Rahim, Khalid Abdul; Ibrahim, Zelina Zaitun; Yazdani, Saeed

    2013-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.

  2. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation`s generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO`s quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab.

  3. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO's quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab

  4. Modelling the Cost and Quality of Preservation Imaging and Archiving

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2009-01-01

    in the OAIS Reference Model. The cost model divides the OAIS functions in a hierarchy of cost critical activities and measurable components, which are implemented as formulas in a spreadsheet. So far the model has only been completed for activities relating to preservation planning and digital migrations......, fire and other risks. In this PhD thesis it is examined how one may evaluate the long‐term costs and benefits to cultural heritage institutions of different preservation strategies for digital copies. The investigated alternatives are preserving the copies in a digital repository, and printing...... the files out on microfilm and preserving them in a non‐digital repository. In order to obtain empirical data and to understand the decisive cost factors in preservation copying, a case study was set up in which degrading sheet‐film negatives were digitised. Requirements for image quality and metadata were...

  5. Cost Analysis of a Digital Health Care Model in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekman, Björn

    2017-09-22

    Digital technologies in health care are expected to increase in scope and to affect ever more parts of the health care system. It is important to enhance the knowledge of whether new digital methods and innovations provide value for money compared with traditional models of care. The objective of the study was to evaluate whether a digital health care model for primary care is a less costly alternative compared with traditional in-office primary care in Sweden. Cost data for the two care models were collected and analyzed to obtain a measure in local currency per care contact. The comparison showed that the total economic cost of a digital consultation is 1960 Swedish krona (SEK) (SEK100 = US$11.29; February 2017) compared with SEK3348 for a traditional consultation at a health care clinic. Cost differences arose on both the provider side and on the user side. The digital health care model may be a less costly alternative to the traditional health care model. Depending on the rate of digital substitution, gross economic cost savings of between SEK1 billion and SEK10 billion per year could be realized if more digital consultations were made. Further studies are needed to validate the findings, assess the types of care most suitable for digital care, and also to obtain various quality-adjusted outcome measures.

  6. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Cobiac

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a key risk factor for chronic disease, but a growing number of people are not achieving the recommended levels of physical activity necessary for good health. Australians are no exception; despite Australia's image as a sporting nation, with success at the elite level, the majority of Australians do not get enough physical activity. There are many options for intervention, from individually tailored advice, such as counselling from a general practitioner, to population-wide approaches, such as mass media campaigns, but the most cost-effective mix of interventions is unknown. In this study we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From evidence of intervention efficacy in the physical activity literature and evaluation of the health sector costs of intervention and disease treatment, we model the cost impacts and health outcomes of six physical activity interventions, over the lifetime of the Australian population. We then determine cost-effectiveness of each intervention against current practice for physical activity intervention in Australia and derive the optimal pathway for implementation. Based on current evidence of intervention effectiveness, the intervention programs that encourage use of pedometers (Dominant and mass media-based community campaigns (Dominant are the most cost-effective strategies to implement and are very likely to be cost-saving. The internet-based intervention program (AUS$3,000/DALY, the GP physical activity prescription program (AUS$12,000/DALY, and the program to encourage more active transport (AUS$20,000/DALY, although less likely to be cost-saving, have a high probability of being under a AUS$50,000 per DALY threshold. GP referral to an exercise physiologist (AUS$79,000/DALY is the least cost-effective option if high time and travel costs for patients in screening and consulting an exercise physiologist are considered

  7. Lifetime value in business process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Souček

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on lifetime value assessment and its implementation and application in business processes. The lifetime value is closely connected to customer relationship management. The paper presents results of three consecutive researches devoted to issues of customer relationship management. The first two from 2008 and 2010 were conducted as quantitative ones; the one from 2009 had qualitative nature. The respondents were representatives of particular companies. The means for data collection was provided by ReLa system. We will focus on individual attributes of lifetime value of a customer, and relate them to approaches of authors mentioned in introduction. Based on the qualitative research data, the paper focuses on individual customer lifetime value parameters. These parameters include: the cost to the customer relationship acquisition and maintenance, profit generated from a particular customer, customer awareness value, the level of preparedness to adopt new products, the value of references and customer loyalty level. For each of these parameters, the paper provides specific recommendations. Moreover, it is possible to learn about the nature of these parameter assessments in the Czech environment.

  8. Atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials of trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene in a three-dimensional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. O. Patten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The chloroalkenes trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene (tCFP and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene (tDCE have been proposed as candidate replacements for other compounds in current use that cause concerns regarding potential environmental effects including destruction of stratospheric ozone. Because tCFP and tDCE contain chlorine atoms, the effects of these short-lived compounds on stratospheric ozone must be established. In this study, we derive the atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs for tCFP and for tDCE assuming emissions from land surfaces at latitudes 30° N to 60° N using the MOZART 3 three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry and physics. 53% of the ozone loss due to tCFP and 98% of the ozone loss due to tDCE take place in the troposphere, rather than in the stratosphere as generally expected from longer-lived chlorocarbons. The atmospheric lifetime of tCFP against chemical reaction is 40.4 days, and its ODP is quite small at 0.00034. The tDCE atmospheric lifetime is 12.7 days, and its ODP is 0.00024, which is the lowest ODP found for any chlorocarbon we have studied. Our study suggests that chlorine from tCFP and tDCE are unlikely to affect ozone at quantities likely to be emitted to the atmosphere.

  9. Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K.

    2016-12-01

    Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty

  10. Lifetime of heavy flavour particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lueth, V.

    1985-10-01

    Recent measurements of the lifetime of the tau leptons and charm and beauty hadrons are reviewed and their significance for the couplings of the charged weak current, flavour mixing, and models relating quarks to hadron decay are discussed. 70 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs

  11. TTS-Polttopuu - cost calculation model for fuelwood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naett, H.; Ryynaenen, S.

    1999-01-01

    The TTS-Institutes's Forestry Department has developed a computer based cost-calculation model, 'TTS-Polttopuu', for the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in the harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model enables to determine the productivity and device cost per operating hour by each working stage of the harvesting system. The calculation model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and cost bases of different harvesting chains influence the unit cost of the whole system. The harvesting chain includes the cutting of delimbed and non-delimbed fuelwood, forest haulage, road transportation, chipping and chopping of longwood at storage. This individually operating software was originally developed to serve research needs, but it also serves the needs of the forestry and agricultural education, training and extension as well as individual firewood producers. The system requirements for this cost calculation model are at least 486- level processor with the Windows 95/98 -operating system, 16 MB of memory (RAM) and 5 MB of available hard-disk. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY-research programme. (orig.)

  12. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  13. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  14. Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, to explore changes in present-day (2000 hydroxyl radical (OH concentration and methane (CH4 lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850 and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42, in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%. Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone, compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC emissions. The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6% indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  15. Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is

  16. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  17. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Sensitivity analysis is a tool used in the assessment of a model's performance. This study examined the application of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study area is Effurun, Uvwie Local Government Area of Delta State of Nigeria. In order to ...

  18. New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  19. New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  20. On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient

  1. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes to prevent diabetes based on an example from Germany: Markov modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neumann Anne

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D poses a large worldwide burden for health care systems. One possible tool to decrease this burden is primary prevention. As it is unethical to wait until perfect data are available to conclude whether T2D primary prevention intervention programmes are cost-effective, we need a model that simulates the effect of prevention initiatives. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes for the prevention of T2D using a Markov model. As decision makers often face difficulties in applying health economic results, we visualise our results with health economic tools. Methods We use four-state Markov modelling with a probabilistic cohort analysis to calculate the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained. A one-year cycle length and a lifetime time horizon are applied. Best available evidence supplies the model with data on transition probabilities between glycaemic states, mortality risks, utility weights, and disease costs. The costs are calculated from a societal perspective. A 3% discount rate is used for costs and QALYs. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves are presented to assist decision makers. Results The model indicates that diabetes prevention interventions have the potential to be cost-effective, but the outcome reveals a high level of uncertainty. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs were negative for the intervention, ie, the intervention leads to a cost reduction for men and women aged 30 or 50 years at initiation of the intervention. For men and women aged 70 at initiation of the intervention, the ICER was EUR27,546/QALY gained and EUR19,433/QALY gained, respectively. In all cases, the QALYs gained were low. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves show that the higher the willingness-to-pay threshold value, the higher the probability that the intervention is cost-effective. Nonetheless, all curves are

  2. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  3. System cost model user's manual, version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.

    1995-06-01

    The System Cost Model (SCM) was developed by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies in Idaho Falls, Idaho and MK-Environmental Services in San Francisco, California to support the Baseline Environmental Management Report sensitivity analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The SCM serves the needs of the entire DOE complex for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) of mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The model can be used to evaluate total complex costs based on various configuration options or to evaluate site-specific options. The site-specific cost estimates are based on generic assumptions such as waste loads and densities, treatment processing schemes, existing facilities capacities and functions, storage and disposal requirements, schedules, and cost factors. The SCM allows customization of the data for detailed site-specific estimates. There are approximately forty TSD module designs that have been further customized to account for design differences for nonalpha, alpha, remote-handled, and transuranic wastes. The SCM generates cost profiles based on the model default parameters or customized user-defined input and also generates costs for transporting waste from generators to TSD sites

  4. Computing Battery Lifetime Distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloth, L.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Jongerden, M.R.

    The usage of mobile devices like cell phones, navigation systems, or laptop computers, is limited by the lifetime of the included batteries. This lifetime depends naturally on the rate at which energy is consumed, however, it also depends on the usage pattern of the battery. Continuous drawing of a

  5. TOWARD LOW-COST FABRICATION OF MICROCHANNEL PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES - COST MODELING FOR MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leith, Steven D.; King, Dale A.; Paul, Brian

    2010-11-07

    identify new paths to lower cost fabrication. Through systematic exploration of fabrication process capabilities and associated cost structures, the MBI is developing volume-sensitive cost estimation models for predicting manufacturing costs of MPT devices fabricated using different processing technologies. The process-based cost models are used to develop an understanding of the economic trade-offs between candidate processes and are utilized in a design for manufacturing approach to MPT device fabrication. In this paper we present results and analysis of the cost modeling effort to date and apply the methodology in case study of a stainless steel MPT device designed, built and tested by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Extensions of the model to adjacent material sets and the interaction of device designs with fabrication processes will be discussed.

  6. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  7. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amber L; Cleghorn, Christine L; van der Deen, Frederieke S; Cobiac, Linda J; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; Blakely, Tony; Wilson, Nick

    2016-09-22

    Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted). These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  8. TTS-Polttopuu - cost calculation model for fuelwood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naett, H.; Ryynaenen, S.

    1998-01-01

    The TTS-Institutes's Forestry Department has developed a computer based costcalculation model, 'TTS-Polttopuu', for the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in the harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model enables to determine the productivity and device cost per operating hour by each working stage of the harvesting system. The calculation model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and cost bases of different harvesting chains influence the unit cost of the whole system. The harvesting chain includes the cutting of delimbed and non-delimbed fuelwood, forest haulage, road transportation chipping and chopping of longwood at storage. This individually operating software was originally developed to serve research needs, but it also serves the needs of the forestry and agricultural education, training and extension as well as individual firewood producers. The system requirements for this cost calculation model are at least 486-level processor with the Windows 95/98 -operating system, 16 MB of memory (RAM) and 5 MB of available hard-disk. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY Research Programme. (orig.)

  9. Computing lifetimes for battery-powered devices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongerden, M.R.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    The battery lifetime of mobile devices depends on the usage pattern of the battery, next to the discharge rate and the battery capacity. Therefore, it is important to include the usage pattern in battery lifetime computations. We do this by combining a stochastic workload, modeled as a

  10. Deriving estimates of individual variability in genetic potentials of performance traits for 3 dairy breeds, using a model of lifetime nutrient partitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phuong, H N; Martin, O; de Boer, I J M

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the ability of an existing lifetime nutrient partitioning model for simulating individual variability in genetic potentials of dairy cows. Generally, the model assumes a universal trajectory of dynamic partitioning of priority between life functions and genetic scaling...... through sequential lactations were used to derive genetic scaling parameters for each animal by calibrating the model to achieve best fit, cow by cow. The model was able to fit individual curves of body weight, and milk fat, milk protein, and milk lactose concentrations with a high degree of accuracy....... Daily milk yield and dry matter intake were satisfactorily predicted in early and mid lactation, but underpredictions were found in late lactation. Breeds and parities did not significantly affect the prediction accuracy. The means of genetic scaling parameters between Danish Red and Danish Holstein...

  11. Low Cost Carbon Fibre: Applications, Performance and Cost Models - Chapter 17

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warren, Charles David [ORNL; Wheatley, Dr. Alan [University of Sunderland; Das, Sujit [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Weight saving in automotive applications has a major bearing on fuel economy. It is generally accepted that, typically, a 10% weight reduction in an automobile will lead to a 6-8% improvement in fuel economy. In this respect, carbon fibre composites are extremely attractive in their ability to provide superlative mechanical performance per unit weight. That is why they are specified for high-end uses such as Formula 1 racing cars and the latest aircraft (e.g. Boeing 787, Airbus A350 and A380), where they comprise over 50% by weight of the structure However, carbon fibres are expensive and this renders their composites similarly expensive. Research has been carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL), Tennessee, USA for over a decade with the aim of reducing the cost of carbon fibre such that it becomes a cost-effective option for the automotive industry. Aspects of this research relating to the development of low cost carbon fibre have been reported in Chapter 3 of this publication. In this chapter, the practical industrial applications of low-cost carbon fibre are presented, together with considerations of the performance and cost models which underpin the work.

  12. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  13. Customer Lifetime Value Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Sharad Borle; Siddharth S. Singh; Dipak C. Jain

    2008-01-01

    The measurement of customer lifetime value is important because it is used as a metric in evaluating decisions in the context of customer relationship management. For a firm, it is important to form some expectations as to the lifetime value of each customer at the time a customer starts doing business with the firm, and at each purchase by the customer. In this paper, we use a hierarchical Bayes approach to estimate the lifetime value of each customer at each purchase occasion by jointly mod...

  14. Enzymatic corn wet milling: engineering process and cost model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Edna C; Johnston, David B; McAloon, Andrew J; Singh, Vijay

    2009-01-21

    Enzymatic corn wet milling (E-milling) is a process derived from conventional wet milling for the recovery and purification of starch and co-products using proteases to eliminate the need for sulfites and decrease the steeping time. In 2006, the total starch production in USA by conventional wet milling equaled 23 billion kilograms, including modified starches and starches used for sweeteners and ethanol production 1. Process engineering and cost models for an E-milling process have been developed for a processing plant with a capacity of 2.54 million kg of corn per day (100,000 bu/day). These models are based on the previously published models for a traditional wet milling plant with the same capacity. The E-milling process includes grain cleaning, pretreatment, enzymatic treatment, germ separation and recovery, fiber separation and recovery, gluten separation and recovery and starch separation. Information for the development of the conventional models was obtained from a variety of technical sources including commercial wet milling companies, industry experts and equipment suppliers. Additional information for the present models was obtained from our own experience with the development of the E-milling process and trials in the laboratory and at the pilot plant scale. The models were developed using process and cost simulation software (SuperPro Designer) and include processing information such as composition and flow rates of the various process streams, descriptions of the various unit operations and detailed breakdowns of the operating and capital cost of the facility. Based on the information from the model, we can estimate the cost of production per kilogram of starch using the input prices for corn, enzyme and other wet milling co-products. The work presented here describes the E-milling process and compares the process, the operation and costs with the conventional process. The E-milling process was found to be cost competitive with the conventional

  15. Enzymatic corn wet milling: engineering process and cost model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McAloon Andrew J

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Enzymatic corn wet milling (E-milling is a process derived from conventional wet milling for the recovery and purification of starch and co-products using proteases to eliminate the need for sulfites and decrease the steeping time. In 2006, the total starch production in USA by conventional wet milling equaled 23 billion kilograms, including modified starches and starches used for sweeteners and ethanol production 1. Process engineering and cost models for an E-milling process have been developed for a processing plant with a capacity of 2.54 million kg of corn per day (100,000 bu/day. These models are based on the previously published models for a traditional wet milling plant with the same capacity. The E-milling process includes grain cleaning, pretreatment, enzymatic treatment, germ separation and recovery, fiber separation and recovery, gluten separation and recovery and starch separation. Information for the development of the conventional models was obtained from a variety of technical sources including commercial wet milling companies, industry experts and equipment suppliers. Additional information for the present models was obtained from our own experience with the development of the E-milling process and trials in the laboratory and at the pilot plant scale. The models were developed using process and cost simulation software (SuperPro Designer® and include processing information such as composition and flow rates of the various process streams, descriptions of the various unit operations and detailed breakdowns of the operating and capital cost of the facility. Results Based on the information from the model, we can estimate the cost of production per kilogram of starch using the input prices for corn, enzyme and other wet milling co-products. The work presented here describes the E-milling process and compares the process, the operation and costs with the conventional process. Conclusion The E-milling process

  16. Cost-effectiveness of total hip and knee replacements for the Australian population with osteoarthritis: discrete-event simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideki Higashi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis constitutes a major musculoskeletal burden for the aged Australians. Hip and knee replacement surgeries are effective interventions once all conservative therapies to manage the symptoms have been exhausted. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements in Australia. To our best knowledge, the study is the first attempt to account for the dual nature of hip and knee osteoarthritis in modelling the severities of right and left joints separately. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model that follows up the individuals with osteoarthritis over their lifetimes. The model defines separate attributes for right and left joints and accounts for several repeat replacements. The Australian population with osteoarthritis who were 40 years of age or older in 2003 were followed up until extinct. Intervention effects were modelled by means of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs averted. Both hip and knee replacements are highly cost effective (AUD 5,000 per DALY and AUD 12,000 per DALY respectively under an AUD 50,000/DALY threshold level. The exclusion of cost offsets, and inclusion of future unrelated health care costs in extended years of life, did not change the findings that the interventions are cost-effective (AUD 17,000 per DALY and AUD 26,000 per DALY respectively. However, there was a substantial difference between hip and knee replacements where surgeries administered for hips were more cost-effective than for knees. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both hip and knee replacements are cost-effective interventions to improve the quality of life of people with osteoarthritis. It was also shown that the dual nature of hip and knee OA should be taken into account to provide more accurate estimation on the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements.

  17. Costly innovators versus cheap imitators: a discrete choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Zeppini, P.

    2010-01-01

    Two alternative ways to an innovative product or process are R&D investment or imitation of others’ innovation. In this article we propose a discrete choice model with costly innovators and free imitators and study the endogenous dynamics of price and demand in a market with many firms producing a

  18. A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao Hong

    2010-01-01

    We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment.

  19. Decision analytic model exploring the cost and cost-offset implications of street triage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslin, Margaret; Callaghan, Lynne; Packwood, Martin; Badu, Vincent; Byford, Sarah

    2016-02-11

    To determine if street triage is effective at reducing the total number of people with mental health needs detained under section 136, and is associated with cost savings compared to usual police response. Routine data from a 6-month period in the year before and after the implementation of a street triage scheme were used to explore detentions under section 136, and to populate a decision analytic model to explore the impact of street triage on the cost to the NHS and the criminal justice sector of supporting people with a mental health need. A predefined area of Sussex, South East England, UK. All people who were detained under section 136 within the predefined area or had contact with the street triage team. The street triage model used here was based on a psychiatric nurse attending incidents with a police constable. The primary outcome was change in the total number of detentions under section 136 between the before and after periods assessed. Secondary analysis focused on whether the additional costs of street triage were offset by cost savings as a result of changes in detentions under section 136. Detentions under section 136 in the street triage period were significantly lower than in the usual response period (118 vs 194 incidents, respectively; χ(2) (1df) 18.542, p<0.001). Total NHS and criminal justice costs were estimated to be £1043 in the street triage period compared to £1077 in the usual response period. Investment in street triage was offset by savings as a result of reduced detentions under section 136, particularly detentions in custody. Data available did not include assessment of patient outcomes, so a full economic evaluation was not possible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  20. Linear versus quadratic portfolio optimization model with transaction cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Norhidayah Bt Ab; Kamil, Karmila Hanim; Elias, Siti Masitah

    2014-06-01

    Optimization model is introduced to become one of the decision making tools in investment. Hence, it is always a big challenge for investors to select the best model that could fulfill their goal in investment with respect to risk and return. In this paper we aims to discuss and compare the portfolio allocation and performance generated by quadratic and linear portfolio optimization models namely of Markowitz and Maximin model respectively. The application of these models has been proven to be significant and popular among others. However transaction cost has been debated as one of the important aspects that should be considered for portfolio reallocation as portfolio return could be significantly reduced when transaction cost is taken into consideration. Therefore, recognizing the importance to consider transaction cost value when calculating portfolio' return, we formulate this paper by using data from Shariah compliant securities listed in Bursa Malaysia. It is expected that, results from this paper will effectively justify the advantage of one model to another and shed some lights in quest to find the best decision making tools in investment for individual investors.

  1. Modeling of Construction Cost of Villas in Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MA Al-Mohsin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a model for estimating construction cost of villas is presented. The model takes into account four major factors affecting villa's cost, namely: built up area, number of toilets, number of bedrooms and the number of stories. A field survey was conducted to collect information required for such model using data collection form designed by the researchers. Information about 150 villas was collected from six well experienced consultants in the field of villa design and supervision in Oman. Collected data was analyzed to develop suggested model which consists of two main levels of estimate. The first level is at the conceptual design stage where the client presents his/her need of space and basic information about the available plot for construction. The second level of cost estimation is carried out after the preliminary design stage where the client has to decide on the finishes and type of structure. At the second level of estimation, the client should be able to decide whether to precede for construction or not, according to his/her budget. The model is general and can be used anywhere and was validated for accepted degree of confidence using the actual cost of the 112 executed villa projects in Oman. The villas included in this study were owned by clients from both high and low income brackets and had different types of finishing material. The developed equations showed good correlation between the selected variables and the actual cost with R2  = 0.79 in the case of conceptual estimate and R2  = 0.601 for preliminary estimate.

  2. Mean fluorescence lifetime and its error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiserova, Eva [Department of Mathematical Analysis and Applications of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Palacky University in Olomouc, tr. 17. listopadu 12, CZE-77146 Olomouc (Czech Republic); Kubala, Martin, E-mail: mkubala@prfnw.upol.cz [Department of Biophysics, Faculty of Science, Palacky University in Olomouc, tr. 17. listopadu 12, CZE-77146 Olomouc (Czech Republic)

    2012-08-15

    Mean excited-state lifetime is one of the fundamental fluorescence characteristics and enters as an important parameter into numerous calculations characterizing molecular interactions, such as e.g. FRET or fluorescence quenching. Our experiments demonstrated that the intensity-weighted mean fluorescence lifetime is very robust characteristic, in contrast to the amplitude-weighted one, which value is dependent on the data quality and particularly on the used fitting model. For the first time, we also report the procedure for the error estimation for both the intensity- and amplitude-weighted mean fluorescence lifetimes. Furthermore, we present a method for estimation of the mean fluorescence lifetime directly from the fluorescence-decay curve recorded by TCSPC (Time-Correlated Single-Photon Counting) method. For its simplicity and low computational demands, it could be a useful tool in the high-throughput applications, such as FACS, FLIM-FRET or HPLC detectors. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Intensity-weighted mean fluorescence lifetime is very robust characteristic. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The amplitude-weighted mean lifetime depends on the selection of fitting model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Rigorous procedure for estimation of confidence intervals for mean lifetime. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The mean lifetime can be estimated directly from the TCSPC histogram.

  3. INTEGRATED COST MODEL FOR IMPROVING THE PRODUCTION IN COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Hajduova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: All processes in the company play important role in ensuring functional integrated management system. We point out the importance of need for a systematic approach to the use of quantitative, but especially statistical methods for modelling the cost of the improvement activities that are part of an integrated management system. Development of integrated management systems worldwide leads towards building of systematic procedures of implementation maintenance and improvement of all systems according to the requirements of all the sides involved.Methodology: Statistical evaluation of the economic indicators of improvement costs and the need for a systematic approach to their management in terms of integrated management systems have become a key role also in the management of processes in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. The aim of this publication is to highlight the importance of proper implementation of statistical methods in the process of improvement costs management in the integrated management system of current market conditions and document the legitimacy of a systematic approach in the area of monitoring and analysing indicators of improvement with the aim of the efficient process management of company. We provide specific example of the implementation of appropriate statistical methods in the production of copper wire in a company Cu Drôt, a.s. This publication also aims to create a model for the estimation of integrated improvement costs, which through the use of statistical methods in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. is used to support decision-making on improving efficiency.Findings: In the present publication, a method for modelling the improvement process, by an integrated manner, is proposed. It is a method in which the basic attributes of the improvement in quality, safety and environment are considered and synergistically combined in the same improvement project. The work examines the use of sophisticated quantitative, especially

  4. Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M R

    1996-04-01

    As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

  5. Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Neuroimaging-Based Treatment of Acute Wake-Up Stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Pandya

    Full Text Available Thrombolytic treatment (tissue-type plasminogen activator [tPA] is only recommended for acute ischemic stroke patients with stroke onset time 4.5 hours, 46.3% experienced a good stroke outcome. Lifetime discounted QALYs and costs were 5.312 and $88,247 for the no treatment strategy and 5.342 and $90,869 for the MRI-based strategy, resulting in an ICER of $88,000/QALY. Results were sensitive to variations in patient- and provider-specific factors such as sleep duration, hospital travel and door-to-needle times, as well as onset probability distribution, MRI specificity, and mRS utility values.Our model-based findings suggest that an MRI-based treatment strategy for this population could be cost-effective and quantifies the impact that patient- and provider-specific factors, such as sleep duration, hospital travel and door-to-needle times, could have on the optimal decision for wake-up stroke patients.

  6. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  7. Empirical Memory-Access Cost Models in Multicore NUMA Architectures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormick, Patrick S. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Braithwaite, Ryan Karl [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Feng, Wu-chun [Virginia Tech

    2011-01-01

    Data location is of prime importance when scheduling tasks in a non-uniform memory access (NUMA) architecture. The characteristics of the NUMA architecture must be understood so tasks can be scheduled onto processors that are close to the task's data. However, in modern NUMA architectures, such as AMD Magny-Cours and Intel Nehalem, there may be a relatively large number of memory controllers with sockets that are connected in a non-intuitive manner, leading to performance degradation due to uninformed task-scheduling decisions. In this paper, we provide a method for experimentally characterizing memory-access costs for modern NUMA architectures via memory latency and bandwidth microbenchmarks. Using the results of these benchmarks, we propose a memory-access cost model to improve task-scheduling decisions by scheduling tasks near the data they need. Simple task-scheduling experiments using the memory-access cost models validate the use of empirical memory-access cost models to significantly improve program performance.

  8. An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

    KAUST Repository

    Sørbye, Sigrunn H.

    2017-09-18

    Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood-based approach is ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{2})$, exploiting the Toeplitz structure of the covariance matrix. In most realistic cases, we do not observe the fGn process directly but only through indirect Gaussian observations, so the Toeplitz structure is easily lost and the computational cost increases to ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{3})$. This paper presents an approximate fGn model of ${\\\\mathcal O}(n)$ computational cost, both with direct or indirect Gaussian observations, with or without conditioning. This is achieved by approximating fGn with a weighted sum of independent first-order autoregressive processes, fitting the parameters of the approximation to match the autocorrelation function of the fGn model. The resulting approximation is stationary despite being Markov and gives a remarkably accurate fit using only four components. The performance of the approximate fGn model is demonstrated in simulations and two real data examples.

  9. Orlistat for the treatment of obesity: cost utility model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foxcroft, D R

    2005-11-01

    This study aimed to assess the cost utility of orlistat treatment based on (i) criteria from recent guidance from the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) for England and Wales (treatment discontinued if weight loss < 5% at 3 months; and < 10% at 6 months); and (ii) alternative criteria from the European Agency for the Evaluation of Medicinal Products (EMEA) licence for orlistat prescription in the European Community (treatment discontinued if weight loss < 5% at 3 months). Subjects were 1398 obese individuals who participated in three large European Phase III trials of orlistat treatment for adults (BMI: 28-47 kg m(-2)). Measures were: response to treatment in orlistat and placebo treatment groups; health benefit expressed as quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained associated with weight loss; costs associated with orlistat treatment. In the cost utility model with multiway sensitivity analysis, the cost/QALY gained using the NICE criteria was estimated to be 24,431 pounds (sensitivity analysis range: 10,856 to 77,197 pounds). The cost/QALY gained using the alternative EMEA criteria was estimated to be 19,005 pounds (range: 8,840 to 57,798 pounds). In conclusion, NICE guidance for the continued use of orlistat was supported in this updated cost utility model, comparing favourably with a previously published estimate of 45,881 pounds per QALY gained. Moreover, the value for money of orlistat treatment is improved further if EMEA treatment criteria for continued orlistat treatment are applied. The EMEA criteria should be considered in any future changes to the NICE guidance or in guidance issued by similar agencies.

  10. Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination, Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flem, Elmira; Latipov, Renat; Kuatbaeva, Ajnagul; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

    2014-01-01

    The government of Kazakhstan, a middle-income country in Central Asia, is considering the introduction of rotavirus vaccination into its national immunization program. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination spanning 20 years by using a synthesis of dynamic transmission models accounting for herd protection. We found that a vaccination program with 90% coverage would prevent ≈880 rotavirus deaths and save an average of 54,784 life-years for children <5 years of age. Indirect protection accounted for 40% and 60% reduction in severe and mild rotavirus gastroenteritis, respectively. Cost per life year gained was US $18,044 from a societal perspective and US $23,892 from a health care perspective. Comparing the 2 key parameters of cost-effectiveness, mortality rates and vaccine cost at costs would be entirely offset. To further evaluate efficacy of a vaccine program, benefits of indirect protection conferred by vaccination warrant further study. PMID:24378188

  11. Decision analytic model exploring the cost and cost-offset implications of street triage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslin, Margaret; Callaghan, Lynne; Packwood, Martin; Badu, Vincent; Byford, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine if street triage is effective at reducing the total number of people with mental health needs detained under section 136, and is associated with cost savings compared to usual police response. Design Routine data from a 6-month period in the year before and after the implementation of a street triage scheme were used to explore detentions under section 136, and to populate a decision analytic model to explore the impact of street triage on the cost to the NHS and the criminal justice sector of supporting people with a mental health need. Setting A predefined area of Sussex, South East England, UK. Participants All people who were detained under section 136 within the predefined area or had contact with the street triage team. Interventions The street triage model used here was based on a psychiatric nurse attending incidents with a police constable. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome was change in the total number of detentions under section 136 between the before and after periods assessed. Secondary analysis focused on whether the additional costs of street triage were offset by cost savings as a result of changes in detentions under section 136. Results Detentions under section 136 in the street triage period were significantly lower than in the usual response period (118 vs 194 incidents, respectively; χ2 (1df) 18.542, ptriage period compared to £1077 in the usual response period. Conclusions Investment in street triage was offset by savings as a result of reduced detentions under section 136, particularly detentions in custody. Data available did not include assessment of patient outcomes, so a full economic evaluation was not possible. PMID:26868943

  12. Predictive models reduce talent development costs in female gymnastics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pion, Johan; Hohmann, Andreas; Liu, Tianbiao; Lenoir, Matthieu; Segers, Veerle

    2017-04-01

    This retrospective study focuses on the comparison of different predictive models based on the results of a talent identification test battery for female gymnasts. We studied to what extent these models have the potential to optimise selection procedures, and at the same time reduce talent development costs in female artistic gymnastics. The dropout rate of 243 female elite gymnasts was investigated, 5 years past talent selection, using linear (discriminant analysis) and non-linear predictive models (Kohonen feature maps and multilayer perceptron). The coaches classified 51.9% of the participants correct. Discriminant analysis improved the correct classification to 71.6% while the non-linear technique of Kohonen feature maps reached 73.7% correctness. Application of the multilayer perceptron even classified 79.8% of the gymnasts correctly. The combination of different predictive models for talent selection can avoid deselection of high-potential female gymnasts. The selection procedure based upon the different statistical analyses results in decrease of 33.3% of cost because the pool of selected athletes can be reduced to 92 instead of 138 gymnasts (as selected by the coaches). Reduction of the costs allows the limited resources to be fully invested in the high-potential athletes.

  13. Modeling and Cost-Effectiveness in HIV Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Margo M; Walensky, Rochelle P

    2016-02-01

    With HIV funding plateauing and the number of people living with HIV increasing due to the rollout of life-saving antiretroviral therapy, policy makers are faced with increasingly tighter budgets to manage the ongoing HIV epidemic. Cost-effectiveness and modeling analyses can help determine which HIV interventions may be of best value. Incidence remains remarkably high in certain populations and countries, making prevention key to controlling the spread of HIV. This paper briefly reviews concepts in modeling and cost-effectiveness methodology and then examines results of recently published cost-effectiveness analyses on the following HIV prevention strategies: condoms and circumcision, behavioral- or community-based interventions, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and treatment as prevention. We find that the majority of published studies demonstrate cost-effectiveness; however, not all interventions are affordable. We urge continued research on combination strategies and methodologies that take into account willingness to pay and budgetary impact.

  14. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  15. O&M Cost Modeling for the Department of Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Japan /Korea, etc.) • Deployed end strength • FYDP expenditures were calculated using the following • Future end strength by Service from PB 2015...The O&M model has: • Used Green Book Deflators • Estimated variable coefficients simultaneously • Evaluated multiple time periods & variable...in NATO countries + Japan + Korea D = Manpower Deployed = M – ( C + O); y = Year index = future year – 1976 Growth coefficient Cost per personnel

  16. Lifetime of a black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlitz, R.D.; Willey, R.S.

    1987-01-01

    We study the constraints placed by quantum mechanics upon the lifetime of a black hole. In the context of a moving-mirror analog model for the Hawking radiation process, we conclude that the period of Hawking radiation must be followed by a much longer period during which the remnant mass (of order m/sub P/) may be radiated away. We are able to place a lower bound on the time required for this radiation process, which translates into a lower bound for the lifetime of the black hole. Particles which are emitted during the decay of the remnant, like the particles which comprise the Hawking flux, may be uncorrelated with each other. But each particle emitted from the decaying remnant is correlated with one particle emitted as Hawking radiation. The state which results after the remnant has evaporated is one which locally appears to be thermal, but which on a much larger scale is marked by extensive correlations

  17. Luminosity lifetime in the Tevatron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, G.; Finley, D.; Johnson, R.P.; Kerns, Q.; McCarthy, J.; Siemann, R.; Zhang, P.

    1988-01-01

    Since the inauguration of colliding proton-antiproton operations in 1987, the Tevatron has exhibited luminosity lifetimes shorter than expected. During a typical colliding beam storage period, called a store, luminosity is calculated periodically by measuring the charge and emittances of each bunch. The growth of the transverse bunch emittances is the dominant cause of luminosity deterioration. Throughout, this period, the position spectrum of the bunches exhibited betatron signals larger than expected from Schottky noise. A model assuming externally driven betatron oscillations explains both the betatron signals and the emittance growth. A program is underway to improve the Tevatron luminosity lifetime. The abort kickers have been identified as sources of emittance growth, and some quadrupole power supplies are further candidates. Because the horizontal dispersion through the RF cavities is nonzero, RF phase noise has been investigated. Noise in the main dipole regulation circuit has also been studied. 13 refs., 4 figs

  18. A Cost Model for Integrated Logistic Support Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Elena Nenni

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An Integrated Logistic Support (ILS service has the objective of improving a system’s efficiency and availability for the life cycle. The system constructor offers the service to the customer, and she becomes the Contractor Logistic Support (CLS. The aim of this paper is to propose an approach to support the CLS in the budget formulation. Specific goals of the model are the provision of the annual cost of ILS activities through a specific cost model and a comprehensive examination of expected benefits, costs and savings under alternative ILS strategies. A simple example derived from an industrial application is also provided to illustrate the idea. Scientific literature is lacking in the topic and documents from the military are just dealing with the issue of performance measurement. Moreover, they are obviously focused on the customer’s perspective. Other scientific papers are general and focused only on maintenance or life cycle management. The model developed in this paper approaches the problem from the perspective of the CLS, and it is specifically tailored on the main issues of an ILS service.

  19. Lifetime of organic photovoltaics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corazza, Michael; Krebs, Frederik C; Gevorgyan, Suren A.

    2015-01-01

    tests. Comparison of the indoor and outdoor lifetimes was performed by means of the o-diagram, which constitutes the initial steps towards establishing a method for predicting the lifetime of an organic photovoltaic device under real operational conditions based on a selection of accelerated indoor...... tests. Acceleration factors were determined using the ISOS-protocols, which enabled reproducible data acquisition between different laboratories and operators within the OPV community. A semi-automatic filtering method was employed for processing data acquired in outdoor tests. It was found...... results reveal that while the accelerated ageing studies reveal days and weeks of lifetime for the studied samples, in outdoor real operational conditions the samples demonstrate stability up to months and seasons....

  20. Parabolic Trough Reference Plant for Cost Modeling with the Solar Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchi, C.

    2010-07-01

    This report describes a component-based cost model developed for parabolic trough solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assisted by WorleyParsons Group Inc., for use with NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM). This report includes an overview and explanation of the model, two summary contract reports from WorleyParsons, and an Excel spreadsheet for use with SAM. The cost study uses a reference plant with a 100-MWe capacity and six hours of thermal energy storage. Wet-cooling and dry-cooling configurations are considered. The spreadsheet includes capital and operating cost by component to allow users to estimate the impact of changes in component costs.

  1. Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

    2017-09-01

    To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright

  2. Computational toxicology: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) for lifetime exposure and bioaccumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in marine mammals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Covaci, Adrian; Yang, Raymond S.H.; Das, Krishna; Blust, Ronny

    2012-01-01

    Due to migration of harbour porpoises towards more polluted areas like the North Sea and their sensitivity towards pollution, there is a need for proper conservation measures for this species. As a consequence, knowledge about the pollutant’s kinetics is required. The present study is the first to investigate the kinetics of PBDEs in marine mammals using PBPK modeling as a non-destructive tool for describing the chemical’s kinetics in a protected animal species. The models were developed and parameterized using data from the literature and Black Sea harbour porpoises through computer optimization. The predictability of these models in time was assessed by reverse dosimetry modeling using data from North Sea porpoises (1990–2008). From these predictions, PBDE 99 levels were found to decrease the fastest, followed by PBDE 153, 47 and 100. Results show that the PBPK models can be applied for harbour porpoises from different regions and also simulate time trends. - Highlights: ► PBPK modeling is a non-invasive and non-destructive tool for risk assessment. ► PBPK modeling was used to study the kinetics of several PBDEs in harbour porpoises. ► Harbour porpoises are sensitive to pollution and therefore ideal model organisms. ► Black Sea data were used for model parameterization. ► North Sea data were used for assessing temporal trends (1990–2008). - PBPK models as a non-invasive tool for describing the kinetics of relevant chemicals in organisms can be used for harbour porpoises from different regions and time periods.

  3. Genetic improvement of sow lifetime productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sow lifetime productivity is a complex, yet important trait, that would benefit commercial populations if improved. It has been estimated that a sow must produce 3 litters to cover the cost of replacement; yet, nearly half of the gilts retained for breeding are removed prior to producing 3 litters r...

  4. Lifetime oriented maintenance planning in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straub, A.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we set up a framework for lifetime oriented maintenance planning as an outcome and input for strategic housing stock management. The maintenance planning holds maintenance activities and costs in the longer term. We consider the maintenance planning as a tool to calculate and implement

  5. Increasing the lifetime of fuel cell catalysts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latsuzbaia, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, I discuss a novel idea of fuel cell catalyst regeneration to increase lifetime of the PEM fuel cell electrode/catalyst operation and, therefore, reduce the catalyst costs. As many of the catalyst degradation mechanisms are difficult to avoid, the regeneration is alternative option to

  6. Nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation and sensitivity analysis of unit costs on the basis of an equilibrium model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.K. Kim

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the difference in the value of the nuclear fuel cycle cost calculated by the deterministic and probabilistic methods on the basis of an equilibrium model. Calculating using the deterministic method, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor nuclear fuel cycle cost, including the reactor cost, were found to be 66.41 mills/kWh and 77.82 mills/kWh, respectively (1 mill = one thousand of a dollar, i.e., 10−3 $. This is because the cost of SFR is considerably expensive. Calculating again using the probabilistic method, however, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR nuclear fuel cycle cost, excluding the reactor cost, were found be 7.47 mills/kWh and 6.40 mills/kWh, respectively, on the basis of the most likely value. This is because the nuclear fuel cycle cost is significantly affected by the standard deviation and the mean of the unit cost that includes uncertainty. Thus, it is judged that not only the deterministic method, but also the probabilistic method, would also be necessary to evaluate the nuclear fuel cycle cost. By analyzing the sensitivity of the unit cost in each phase of the nuclear fuel cycle, it was found that the uranium unit price is the most influential factor in determining nuclear fuel cycle costs.

  7. Landfill mining: Development of a cost simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsberger, Tanja; Pinkel, Michael; Polansek, Stephanie; Sarc, Renato; Hermann, Robert; Pomberger, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Landfill mining permits recovering secondary raw materials from landfills. Whether this purpose is economically feasible, however, is a matter of various aspects. One is the amount of recoverable secondary raw material (like metals) that can be exploited with a profit. Other influences are the costs for excavation, for processing the waste at the landfill site and for paying charges on the secondary disposal of waste. Depending on the objectives of a landfill mining project (like the recovery of a ferrous and/or a calorific fraction) these expenses and revenues are difficult to assess in advance. This situation complicates any previous assessment of the economic feasibility and is the reason why many landfills that might be suitable for landfill mining are continuingly operated as active landfills, generating aftercare costs and leaving potential hazards to later generations. This article presents a newly developed simulation model for landfill mining projects. It permits identifying the quantities and qualities of output flows that can be recovered by mining and by mobile on-site processing of the waste based on treatment equipment selected by the landfill operator. Thus, charges for disposal and expected revenues from secondary raw materials can be assessed. Furthermore, investment, personnel, operation, servicing and insurance costs are assessed and displayed, based on the selected mobile processing procedure and its throughput, among other things. For clarity, the simulation model is described in this article using the example of a real Austrian sanitary landfill. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Forest fuel - economy and models for cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Anders.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to develop guidelines for the R and D work within Skogskraft with the aim of improving the efficiency of the investigatory work. The report mainly concerns logging waste. The contents are as follows; Terminology - definitions: This section includes a brief description of wood fuels with regard to terminology, definitions, production and marketing. Units of measurement: Different units of measurement are descrived and their relationship to forestry, sawmills and consumers of wood fuels. An account is also given of effective thermal values and formulas for calculations of the energy content for different wood fuels. Calculation models, analyses: This section discusses different models and standards for calculating machine and manual costs. In addition, views are given on cost analysis and certain guidelines with regard to overhead costs. Actors and systems: There is a risk that technical problems receive a far too dominant role in relation to problems which concern organisation and structure. Consequently, it is important to define the actors and to illustrate the different driving forces and tensions that may occur. Seven different actors/interested parties have been described and analysed with regard to primary and secondary interests in ecological, technical and economic questions. Preparation of reports: Certain recommendations have been given with regard to formal requirements and quality requirements

  9. The cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening for Cystic Fibrosis: an analysis of alternative scenarios using a decision model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Karen

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis is widely debated in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, but the evidence available to inform policy is limited. This paper explores the cost-effectiveness of adding screening for cystic fibrosis to an existing routine neonatal screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria, under alternative scenarios and assumptions. Methods The study is based on a decision model comparing screening to no screening in terms of a number of outcome measures, including diagnosis of cystic fibrosis, life-time treatment costs, life years and QALYs gained. The setting is a hypothetical UK health region without an existing neonatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis. Results Under initial assumptions, neonatal screening (using an immunoreactive trypsin/DNA two stage screening protocol costs £5,387 per infant diagnosed, or £1.83 per infant screened (1998 costs. Neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis produces an incremental cost-effectiveness of £6,864 per QALY gained, in our base case scenario (an assumed benefit of a 6 month delay in the emergence of symptoms. A difference of 11 months or more in the emergence of symptoms (and mean survival means neonatal screening is both less costly and produces better outcomes than no screening. Conclusion Neonatal screening is expensive as a method of diagnosis. Neonatal screening may be a cost-effective intervention if the hypothesised delays in the onset of symptoms are confirmed. Implementing both antenatal and neonatal screening would undermine potential economic benefits, since a reduction in the birth incidence of cystic fibrosis would reduce the cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening.

  10. Lifetime of kaonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewald, S.; Lemmer, R.H.; Sassen, F.P.

    2004-01-01

    The kaon-antikaon system is studied in both the atomic and the strongly interacting sector. We discuss the influence of the structures of the f 0 (980) and the a 0 (980) mesons on the lifetime of kaonium. The strong interactions are generated by vector meson exchange within the framework of the standard SU(3) V xSU(3) A invariant effective Lagrangian. In the atomic sector, the energy levels and decay widths of kaonium are determined by an eigenvalue equation of the Kudryavtsev-Popov type, with the strong interaction effects entering through the complex scattering length for KK-bar scattering and annihilation. The presence of two scalar mesons f 0 (980) and a 0 (980) leads to a ground state energy for the kaonium atom that is shifted above the point Coulomb value by a few hundred eV. The effect on the lifetime for the kaonium decay into two pions is much more dramatic. This lifetime is reduced by two orders of magnitude from 1.2x10 -16 sec for annihilation in a pure Coulomb field down to 3.2x10 -18 sec when the strong interactions are included. The analysis of the two photon decay width of the f 0 (980) suggests a generalization of the molecular picture which reduces the lifetime of kaonium still further to 1.1x10 -18 sec

  11. Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc; Portnoy, Allison; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2014-07-01

    Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support. We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects. In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690,000 cases of cervical cancer and 420,000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases

  12. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarwal, Vivek [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lybeck, Nancy J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pham, Binh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rusaw, Richard [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Bickford, Randall [Expert Microsystems, Orangevale, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  13. Protein a resin lifetime study: Evaluation of protein a resin performance with a model-based approach in continuous capture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behere, Ketki; Cha, Bumjoon; Yoon, Seongkyu

    2018-01-22

    A modified shrinking core model (MSCM) has been used to describe the mechanism for the degradation of Protein A resin particles taking place under continuous chromatographic operation. The model is based on the hypothetical shrinkage of the boundary layer of the resin particles, which house the active Protein A ligands within their pores. The caustic during the sanitization phase of chromatography has been determined to cause the Protein A ligand degradation. Protein A resins provided by manufacturers possess unique caustic stability, which has been used in MSCM to appraise the ligand degradation. The kinetic model utilized semiempirical parameters including diffusion constant, rate constant, stoichiometric factor, and reaction order. The parameters were estimated from column breakthrough experiments to simulate continuous Protein A chromatography for three distinct resins. The reaction order has been identified as the key parameter for predicting the degradation kinetics. The recorded reaction orders vary for three different resins with the resin B showing the highest reaction order of 4 and lowest being 1.65 for the resin C. The model can predict the effects of caustic on resin performance and displayed that minimal degradation of the resins A and B occurred, when exposed to 0.1 N and 0.2N NaOH, retaining up to 96% binding capacity after 240 cycles. The adsorption study conducted for the resin B demonstrated the dynamic physical and chemical changes transpiring through the life cycle of the resin, further supported the degradation model. The performance data demonstrate that the resin B exhibits the desirable performance, with higher reaction order indicating slower resin degradation, higher binding capacities, and increased sustenance of this binding capacity for extended duration. The degradation model can be extended to build effective cleaning strategies for continuous downstream processing.

  14. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  15. Renewable Energy Cost Modeling: A Toolkit for Establishing Cost-Based Incentives in the United States; March 2010 -- March 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gifford, J. S.; Grace, R. C.; Rickerson, W. H.

    2011-05-01

    This report is intended to serve as a resource for policymakers who wish to learn more about establishing cost-based incentives. The report will identify key renewable energy cost modeling options, highlight the policy implications of choosing one approach over the other, and present recommendations on the optimal characteristics of a model to calculate rates for cost-based incentives, feed-in tariffs (FITs), or similar policies. These recommendations will be utilized in designing the Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST). Three CREST models will be publicly available and capable of analyzing the cost of energy associated with solar, wind, and geothermal electricity generators. The CREST models will be developed for use by state policymakers, regulators, utilities, developers, and other stakeholders to assist them in current and future rate-setting processes for both FIT and other renewable energy incentive payment structures and policy analyses.

  16. Evaluation of primary HPV-DNA testing in relation to visual inspection methods for cervical cancer screening in rural China: an epidemiologic and cost-effectiveness modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Yoon-Jung

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A new lower-cost rapid-throughput human papillomavirus (HPV test (careHPV, Qiagen, Gaithersburg, USA has been shown to have high sensitivity for the detection of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Methods We assessed the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of careHPV screening in rural China, compared to visual inspection with acetic acid, when used alone (VIA or in combination with Lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI. Using data on sexual behaviour, test accuracy, diagnostic practices and costs from studies performed in rural China, we estimated the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER and associated lifetime outcomes for once-lifetime and twice-lifetime screening strategies, and for routine screening at 5-yearly, 10-yearly and IARC-recommended intervals. The optimal age range for once-lifetime screening was also assessed. Results For all strategies, the relative ordering of test technologies in reducing cervical cancer incidence and mortality was VIA (least effective; VIA/VILI; careHPV@1.0 pg/ml and careHPV@0.5 pg/ml (most effective. For once-lifetime strategies, maximum effectiveness was achieved if screening occurred between 35-50 years. Assuming a participation rate of ~70%, once-lifetime screening at age 35 years would reduce cancer mortality by 8% (for VIA to 12% (for careHPV@0.5 over the long term, with a CER of US$557 (for VIA to $959 (for careHPV@1.0 per life year saved (LYS compared to no intervention; referenced to a 2008 GDP per capita in Shanxi Province of $2,975. Correspondingly, regular screening with an age-standardised participation rate of 62% (which has been shown to be achievable in this setting would reduce cervical cancer mortality by 19-28% (for 10-yearly screening to 43-54% (using IARC-recommended intervals, with corresponding CERs ranging from $665 (for 10-yearly VIA to $2,269 (for IARC-recommended intervals using careHPV@1.0 per LYS. Conclusions This modelled analysis suggests that primary careHPV screening

  17. Costs and cost effectiveness of different strategies for chlamydia screening and partner notification: an economic and mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Katy; Adams, Elisabeth; Grant, Arabella; Macleod, John; Bell, Gill; Clarke, Jan; Horner, Paddy

    2011-01-04

    To compare the cost, cost effectiveness, and sex equity of different intervention strategies within the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme. To develop a tool for calculating cost effectiveness of chlamydia control programmes at a local, national, or international level. An economic and mathematical modelling study with cost effectiveness analysis. Costs were restricted to those of screening and partner notification from the perspective of the NHS and excluded patient costs, the costs of reinfection, and costs of complications arising from initial infection. England. Population Individuals eligible for the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. Cost effectiveness of National Chlamydia Screening Programme in 2008-9 (as cost per individual tested, cost per positive diagnosis, total cost of screening, number screened, number infected, sex ratio of those tested and treated). Comparison of baseline programme with two different interventions-(i) increased coverage of primary screening in men and (ii) increased efficacy of partner notification. In 2008-9 screening was estimated to cost about £46.3m in total and £506 per infection treated. Provision for partner notification within the screening programme cost between £9 and £27 per index case, excluding treatment and testing. The model results suggest that increasing male screening coverage from 8% (baseline value) to 24% (to match female coverage) would cost an extra £22.9m and increase the cost per infection treated to £528. In contrast, increasing partner notification efficacy from 0.4 (baseline value) to 0.8 partners per index case would cost an extra £3.3m and would reduce the cost per infection diagnosed to £449. Increasing screening coverage to 24% in men would cost over six times as much as increasing partner notification to 0.8 but only treat twice as many additional infections. In the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme increasing the effectiveness of partner notification is likely

  18. Long-term economic benefits attributed to IVF-conceived children: a lifetime tax calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Pollard, Michael S; Hoorens, Stijn; Kaplan, Brian R; Oskowitz, Selwyn P; Silber, Sherman J

    2008-09-01

    To evaluate whether lifetime future net tax revenues from an in vitro fertilization (IVF)-conceived child are substantial enough to warrant public subsidy relative to the mean IVF treatment costs required to obtain 1 live birth. Mathematical generational accounting model. The model estimates direct financial interactions between the IVF-conceived child and the government during the child's projected lifetime. In the model, we accrue IVF costs required to conceive the child to the government, and then we estimate future net tax revenue to the federal and state governments from this individual, offset by direct financial transfers from the government (eg, child allowances, education, Medicare, and Social Security). We discount lifetime costs and gross tax payments at Treasury Department rates to establish the present value of investing in IVF. We applied US Congressional Budget Office projected changes in tax rates over the course of the model. An IVF-conceived child, average in every respect (eg, future earnings, healthcare consumption, and life expectancy), represents a net positive return to the government. Based on an average employed individual born in 2005, the projected net lifetime tax contribution is US $606,200. Taking into consideration IVF costs and all direct financial interactions, the net present value is US $155,870. Lifetime net taxes paid from a child relative to the child's initial IVF investment represent a 700% net return to the government in discounted US dollars from fully employed individuals. This suggests that removing barriers to IVF would have positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial effect on overall economic growth.

  19. The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Sacks, Gary; Antonopoulos, Nicole; Martin, Jane

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

  20. The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Lennert Veerman

    Full Text Available This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20 Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000 and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000 for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million. The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

  1. Results from a partial lifetime test of a 40 mm-aperture 17 mm SSC model dipole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radusewicz, P.; Devred, A.; Bush, T.; Coombes, R.; DiMarco, J.; Goodzeit, C.; Kuzminski, J.; Ogitsu, T.; Potter, J.; Puglisi, M.; Sanger, P.; Schermer, R.; Tompkins, J.; Yu, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Zheng, H. [Superconducting Super Collider Lab., Dallas, TX (United States); Anerella, M.; Cottingham, J.; Ganetis, G.; Garber, M.; Ghosh, A.; Greene, A.; Gupta, R.; Jain, A.; Kahn, S.; Kelly, E.; Morgan, G.; Muratore, J.; Prodell, A.; Rehak, M.; Roher, E.P.; Sampson, W.; Shutt, R.; Thomas, R.; Thompson, P.; Wanderer, P.; Willen, E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Bleadon, M.; Hanft, R.; Kuchnir, M.; Mantsch, P.; Mazur, P.O.; Orris, D.; Peterson, T.; Strait, J. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (United States); Royett, J.; Scanlan, R.; Taylor, C. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-03-01

    A 40-mm-aperture, 17-m-long Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) model dipole was assembled at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and tested initially at Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) and later at BNL. At BNL an extended cycle test was devised to examine the magnet`s performance through numerous cold tests and thermal cycles. This paper discusses the magnet`s mechanical and quench performance and magnet field measurements during the tests.

  2. Results from a partial lifetime test of a 40 mm-aperture 17 mm SSC model dipole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radusewicz, P.; Devred, A.; Bush, T.; Coombes, R.; DiMarco, J.; Goodzeit, C.; Kuzminski, J.; Ogitsu, T.; Potter, J.; Puglisi, M.; Sanger, P.; Schermer, R.; Tompkins, J.; Yu, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Zheng, H.; Anerella, M.; Cottingham, J.; Ganetis, G.; Garber, M.; Ghosh, A.; Greene, A.; Gupta, R.; Jain, A.; Kahn, S.; Kelly, E.; Morgan, G.; Muratore, J.; Prodell, A.; Rehak, M.; Roher, E.P.; Sampson, W.; Shutt, R.; Thomas, R.; Thompson, P.; Wanderer, P.; Willen, E.; Bleadon, M.; Hanft, R.; Kuchnir, M.; Mantsch, P.; Mazur, P.O.; Orris, D.; Peterson, T.; Strait, J.; Royett, J.; Scanlan, R.; Taylor, C.

    1992-03-01

    A 40-mm-aperture, 17-m-long Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) model dipole was assembled at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and tested initially at Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) and later at BNL. At BNL an extended cycle test was devised to examine the magnet's performance through numerous cold tests and thermal cycles. This paper discusses the magnet's mechanical and quench performance and magnet field measurements during the tests

  3. Results from a partial lifetime test of a 40-mm-aperture, 17-m-long SSC model dipole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radusewicz, P.; Devred, A.; Bush, T.; Coombes, R.; DiMarco, J.; Goodzeit, C.; Kuzminski, J.; Ogitsu, T.; Potter, J.; Puglisi, M.; Sanger, P.; Schermer, R.; Tompkins, J.; Yu, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Zheng, H.; Anerella, M.; Cottingham, J.; Ganetis, G.; Garber, M.; Ghosh, A.; Greene, A.; Gupta, R.; Jain, A.; Kahn, S.; Kelly, E.; Morgan, G.; Muratore, J.; Prodell, A.; Rehak, M.; Roher, E.P.; Sampson, W.; Shutt, R.; Thomas, R.; Thompson, P.; Wanderer, P.; Willen, E.; Bleadon, M.; Hanft, R.; Kuchnir, M.; Mantsch, P.; Mazur, P.O.; Orris, D.; Peterson, T.; Strait, J.; Royett, J.; Scanlan, R.; Taylor, C.

    1992-01-01

    -LA 40-mm-aperture, 17-m-long Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) model dipole was assembled at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and tested initially at Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) and later at BNL. At BNL an extended cycle test was devised to examine the magnet's performance through numerous cold tests and thermal cycles. This paper discusses the magnet's mechanical and quench performance and magnet field measurements during the tests

  4. Modelling User-Costs in Life Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2008-01-01

    The importance of including user's costs in Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit analysis of structures is discussed in this paper. This is especially for bridges of great importance. Repair or/and failure of a bridge will usually result in user costs greater than the repair or replacement costs of the bridge....... For the society (and the user's) it is therefore of great importance that maintenance or replacement of a bridge is performed in such a way that all costs are minimized - not only the owners cost....

  5. Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

  6. Accelerated lifetime testing methodology for lifetime estimation of Lithium-ion batteries used in augmented wind power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stan, Ana-Irina

    2013-01-01

    The development of lifetime estimation models for Lithium-ion battery cells, which are working under highly variable mission profiles characteristic for wind power plant applications, requires a lot of expenditures and time resources. Therefore, batteries have to be tested under accelerated...... lifetime ageing conditions. This paper presents a three-stage methodology used for accelerated lifetime testing of Lithium-ion batteries. The results obtained at the end of the accelerated ageing process can be used for the parametrization of a performance-degradation lifetime model. In the proposed...... methodology both calendar and cycling lifetime tests are considered since both components are influencing the lifetime of Lithium-ion batteries. The methodology proposes also a lifetime model verification stage, where Lithium-ion battery cells are tested at normal operating conditions using an application...

  7. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mascarin, Anthony; Hannibal, Ted; Raghunathan, Anand; Ivanic, Ziga; Clark, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research's/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.'s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  8. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mascarin, Anthony [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Hannibal, Ted [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Raghunathan, Anand [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Ivanic, Ziga [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Clark, Michael [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research’s/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.’s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  9. Costly bilingualism model in a population with one zealot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Hyunsuk; Son, Seung-Woo

    2013-08-01

    We consider a costly bilingualism model in which one can take two strategies in parallel. We investigate how a single zealot triggers the cascading behavior and how the compatibility of the two strategies affects when interacting patterns change. First, the role of the interaction range in the cascading is studied by increasing the range from local to global. We find that people sometimes do not favor taking the superior strategy even though its payoff is higher than that of the inferior one. This is found to be caused by the local interactions rather than the global ones. Applying this model to social networks, we find that the location of the zealot is also important for larger cascading in heterogeneous networks.

  10. A new costing model in hospital management: time-driven activity-based costing system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öker, Figen; Özyapıcı, Hasan

    2013-01-01

    Traditional cost systems cause cost distortions because they cannot meet the requirements of today's businesses. Therefore, a new and more effective cost system is needed. Consequently, time-driven activity-based costing system has emerged. The unit cost of supplying capacity and the time needed to perform an activity are the only 2 factors considered by the system. Furthermore, this system determines unused capacity by considering practical capacity. The purpose of this article is to emphasize the efficiency of the time-driven activity-based costing system and to display how it can be applied in a health care institution. A case study was conducted in a private hospital in Cyprus. Interviews and direct observations were used to collect the data. The case study revealed that the cost of unused capacity is allocated to both open and laparoscopic (closed) surgeries. Thus, by using the time-driven activity-based costing system, managers should eliminate the cost of unused capacity so as to obtain better results. Based on the results of the study, hospital management is better able to understand the costs of different surgeries. In addition, managers can easily notice the cost of unused capacity and decide how many employees to be dismissed or directed to other productive areas.

  11. Fitness conflicts and the costs of sociality in communal egg layers: a theoretical model and empirical tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, M L G; Zink, A G

    2006-05-01

    Individuals within complex social groups often experience reduced reproduction owing to coercive or suppressive actions of other group members. However, the nature of social and ecological environments that favour individual acceptance of such costs of sociality is not well understood. Taxa with short periods of direct social interaction, such as some communal egg layers, are interesting models for study of the cost of social interaction because opportunities to control reproduction of others are limited to brief periods of reproduction. To understand the conditions under which communal egg layers are in fitness conflict and thus likely to influence each other's reproduction, we develop an optimality model involving a brood guarding 'host' and a nonguarding disperser, or 'egg dumper'. The model shows that when, where intermediate-sized broods have highest survival, lifetime inclusive fitnesses of hosts and dumpers are often optimized with different numbers of dumped eggs. We hypothesize that resolution of this conflict may involve attempts by one party to manipulate the other's reproduction. To test model predictions we used a lace bug (Heteroptera: Tingidae) that shows both hosts and egg dumpers as well as increased offspring survival in response to communal egg laying. We found that egg-dumping lace bugs oviposit a number of eggs that very closely matches predicted fitness optimum for hosts rather than predicted optimum of dumpers. This result suggests that dumpers pay a social cost for communal egg laying, a cost that may occur through host suppression of dumper reproduction. Although dumper allocation of eggs is thus sub-optimal for dumpers, previous models show that the decision to egg dump is nevertheless evolutionarily stable, possibly because hosts permit just enough dumper oviposition to encourage commitment to the behaviour.

  12. Measurement of Beam Lifetime and Applications for SPEAR3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Xiaobiao; Corbett, Jeff; /SLAC

    2011-04-05

    Beam lifetime studies for the SPEAR3 storage ring are presented. The three lifetime components are separated with lifetime measurements under various combinations of beam currents and fill patterns and vertical scraper scans. Touschek lifetime is studied with rf voltage scans and with the horizontal or vertical scrapers inserted. The measurements are explained with calculations based on the calibrated lattice model. Quantum lifetime measurements are performed with reduced longitudinal and horizontal apertures, respectively, from which we deduce the radiation energy loss down to a few keV per revolution and the horizontal beam size.

  13. Reference model for measuring and analysing costs – particularly in business informatics

    OpenAIRE

    Milos Maryska

    2010-01-01

    This paper is devoted to problems of management of cost efficiency of business informatics with Business Intelligence (BI) assistance. It defines basic critical points that must be taken into account during creating models for management of cost efficiency of business informatics. It proposes new model for management of cost efficiency, this model include also definitions of dimensions and indicators for measuring of this cost efficiency. The model takes into account requirements that pose cl...

  14. Cost-effectiveness of investing in sidewalks as a means of increasing physical activity: a RESIDE modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Gunn, Lucy; McCormack, Gavin R; Cobiac, Linda J; Mantilla Herrera, Ana Maria; Giles-Corti, Billie; Shiell, Alan

    2016-09-20

    Studies consistently find that supportive neighbourhood built environments increase physical activity by encouraging walking and cycling. However, evidence on the cost-effectiveness of investing in built environment interventions as a means of promoting physical activity is lacking. In this study, we assess the cost-effectiveness of increasing sidewalk availability as one means of encouraging walking. Using data from the RESIDE study in Perth, Australia, we modelled the cost impact and change in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) of installing additional sidewalks in established neighbourhoods. Estimates of the relationship between sidewalk availability and walking were taken from a previous study. Multistate life table models were used to estimate HALYs associated with changes in walking frequency and duration. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the impact of variations in population density, discount rates, sidewalk costs and the inclusion of unrelated healthcare costs in added life years. Installing and maintaining an additional 10 km of sidewalk in an average neighbourhood with 19 000 adult residents was estimated to cost A$4.2 million over 30 years and gain 24 HALYs over the lifetime of an average neighbourhood adult resident population. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was A$176 000/HALY. However, sensitivity results indicated that increasing population densities improves cost-effectiveness. In low-density cities such as in Australia, installing sidewalks in established neighbourhoods as a single intervention is unlikely to cost-effectively improve health. Sidewalks must be considered alongside other complementary elements of walkability, such as density, land use mix and street connectivity. Population density is particularly important because at higher densities, more residents are exposed and this improves the cost-effectiveness. Health gain is one of many benefits of enhancing neighbourhood walkability and future studies might

  15. A Model of Cost Reduction and Standardization: Improved Cost Savings While Maintaining the Quality of Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Michael J; Gitelis, Matthew E; Linn, John G; Ujiki, Michael B; Waskerwitz, Matthew; Umanskiy, Konstantin; Muldoon, Joseph P

    2015-11-01

    Surgeon instrument choices are influenced by training, previous experience, and established preferences. This causes variability in the cost of common operations, such as laparoscopic appendectomy. Many surgeons are unaware of the impact that this has on healthcare spending. We sought to educate surgeons on their instrument use and develop standardized strategies for operating room cost reduction. We collected the individual surgeon instrument cost for performing a laparoscopic appendectomy. Sixteen surgeons were educated about these costs and provided with cost-effective instruments and techniques. This study was conducted in a university-affiliated hospital system. Patients included those undergoing a laparoscopic appendectomy within the hospital system. Patient demographics, operating room costs, and short-term outcomes for the fiscal year before and after the education program were then compared. During fiscal year 2013, a total of 336 laparoscopic appendectomies were performed compared with 357 in 2014. Twelve surgeons had a ≥5% reduction in average cost per case. Overall, the average cost per case was reduced by 17% (p day readmissions, postoperative infections, operating time, or reoperations. This retrospective study is subject to the accuracy of the medical chart system. In addition, specific instrument costs are based on our institution contracts and vary compared with other institutions. In this study we demonstrate that operative instrument costs for laparoscopic appendectomy can be significantly reduced by informing the surgeons of their operating room costs compared with their peers and providing a low-cost standardized instrument tray. Importantly, this can be realized without any incentive or punitive measures and does not negatively impact outcomes. Additional work is needed to expand these results to more operations, hospital systems, and training programs.

  16. Capital cost models for geothermal power plants and fluid transmission systems. [GEOCOST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, S.C.

    1977-09-01

    The GEOCOST computer program is a simulation model for evaluating the economics of developing geothermal resources. The model was found to be both an accurate predictor of geothermal power production facility costs and a valid designer of such facilities. GEOCOST first designs a facility using thermodynamic optimization routines and then estimates costs for the selected design using cost models. Costs generated in this manner appear to correspond closely with detailed cost estimates made by industry planning groups. Through the use of this model, geothermal power production costs can be rapidly and accurately estimated for many alternative sites making the evaluation process much simpler yet more meaningful.

  17. Oil spill modeling input to the offshore environmental cost model (OECM) for US-BOEMRE's spill risk and costs evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, Deborah; Reich, Danielle; Rowe, Jill; Schroeder, Melanie; Graham, Eileen

    2011-01-01

    This paper simulates the consequences of oil spills using a planning model known as the Offshore Environmental Cost Model (OECM). This study aims at creating various predictive models for possible oil spill scenarios in marine waters. A crucial part of this investigation was the SIMAP model. It analyzes the distance and the direction covered by the spill under certain test conditions, generating a regression equation that simulates the impact of the spill. Tests were run in two different regions; the Mid-Atlantic region and the Chukchi Sea. Results showed that the higher wind speeds and higher water temperature of the Mid-Atlantic region had greater impact on wildlife and the water column respectively. However, short-line impact was higher in the Chukchi area due to the multi-directional wind. It was also shown that, because of their higher diffusivity in water, lighter crude oils had more impact than heavier oils. It was suggested that this model could ultimately be applied to other oil spill scenarios happening under similar conditions.

  18. Measurements of heavy quark and lepton lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaros, J.A.

    1985-02-01

    The PEP/PETRA energy range has proved to be well-suited for the study of the lifetimes of hadrons containing the b and c quarks and the tau lepton for several reasons. First, these states comprise a large fraction of the total interaction rate in e + e - annihilation and can be cleanly identified. Second, the storage rings have operated at high luminosity and so produced these exotic states copiously. And finally, thanks to the interplay of the Fermi coupling strength, the quark and lepton masses, and the beam energy, the expected decay lengths are in the 1/2 mm range and so are comparatively easy to measure. This pleasant coincidence of cleanly identified and abundant signal with potentially large effects has made possible the first measurements of two fundamental weak couplings, tau → nu/sub tau/W and b → cW. These measurements have provided a sharp test of the standard model and allowed, for the first time, the full determination of the magnitudes of the quark mixing matrix. This paper reviews the lifetime studies made at PEP during the past year. It begins with a brief review of the three detectors, DELCO, MAC and MARK II, which have reported lifetime measurements. Next it discusses two new measurements of the tau lifetime, and briefly reviews a measurement of the D 0 lifetime. Finally, it turns to measurements of the B lifetime, which are discussed in some detail. 18 references, 14 figures, 1 table

  19. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  20. Cervical cancer treatment costs and cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in Vietnam: a PRIME modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Minh, Hoang; My, Nguyen Thi Tuyet; Jit, Mark

    2017-05-15

    Cervical cancer is currently the leading cause of cancer mortality among women in South Vietnam and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in North Vietnam. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has the potential to substantially decrease this burden. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that a cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination is conducted before nationwide introduction. The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modeling and Economics (PRIME) model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine introduction. A costing study based on expert panel discussions, interviews and hospital case note reviews was conducted to explore the cost of cervical cancer care. The cost of cervical cancer treatment ranged from US$368 - 11400 depending on the type of hospital and treatment involved. Under Gavi-negotiated prices of US$4.55, HPV vaccination is likely to be very cost-effective with an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the range US$780 - 1120. However, under list prices for Cervarix and Gardasil in Vietnam, the incremental cost per DALY averted for HPV vaccination can exceed US$8000. HPV vaccine introduction appears to be economically attractive only if Vietnam is able to procure the vaccine at Gavi prices. This highlights the importance of initiating a nationwide vaccination programme while such prices are still available.

  1. Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchi, C. S.; Heath, G. A.

    2013-02-01

    This report describes a component-based cost model developed for molten-salt power tower solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), using data from several prior studies, including a contracted analysis from WorleyParsons Group, which is included herein as an Appendix. The WorleyParsons' analysis also estimated material composition and mass for the plant to facilitate a life cycle analysis of the molten salt power tower technology. Details of the life cycle assessment have been published elsewhere. The cost model provides a reference plant that interfaces with NREL's System Advisor Model or SAM. The reference plant assumes a nominal 100-MWe (net) power tower running with a nitrate salt heat transfer fluid (HTF). Thermal energy storage is provided by direct storage of the HTF in a two-tank system. The design assumes dry-cooling. The model includes a spreadsheet that interfaces with SAM via the Excel Exchange option in SAM. The spreadsheet allows users to estimate the costs of different-size plants and to take into account changes in commodity prices. This report and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded at https://sam.nrel.gov/cost.

  2. LHCb: Measurement of $b$-hadron lifetimes at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Amhis, Y

    2014-01-01

    Lifetimes are among the most fundamental properties of elementary particles. Precision Measurements of $b$-hadron lifetimes are an important tool to test theoretical models such as HQET. These models allow to predict various observables related to B-mixing. Using data collected during Run 1 at the LHC, LHCb measured the lifetime of B-decays including a $J/\\psi$ in the final state.

  3. Transaction costs and asset prices : a dynamic equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitri Vayanos

    1998-01-01

    In this article we study the effects of transaction costs on asset prices. We assume an overlapping generations economy with a riskless, liquid bond, and many risky stocks carrying proportional transaction costs. We obtain stock prices and turnover in closed form. Surprisingly, a stock's price may increase in transaction costs, and a more frequently traded stock may be less adversely affected by an increase in transaction costs. Calculations based on the 'marginal' investor overestimate the e...

  4. Networking K-12 Schools: Architecture Models and Evaluation of Costs and Benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Russell Isaac

    This thesis examines the cost and benefits of communication networks in K-12 schools using cost analysis of five technology models with increasing levels of connectivity. Data indicate that the cost of the network hardware is only a small fraction of the overall networking costs. PC purchases, initial training, and retrofitting are the largest…

  5. Comparison of two dose and three dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules: cost effectiveness analysis based on transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc; Laprise, Jean-François; Choi, Yoon Hong

    2015-01-06

    To investigate the incremental cost effectiveness of two dose human papillomavirus vaccination and of additionally giving a third dose. Cost effectiveness study based on a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus vaccination. Two dose schedules for bivalent or quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines were assumed to provide 10, 20, or 30 years' vaccine type protection and cross protection or lifelong vaccine type protection without cross protection. Three dose schedules were assumed to give lifelong vaccine type and cross protection. United Kingdom. Males and females aged 12-74 years. No, two, or three doses of human papillomavirus vaccine given routinely to 12 year old girls, with an initial catch-up campaign to 18 years. Costs (from the healthcare provider's perspective), health related utilities, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. Giving at least two doses of vaccine seems to be highly cost effective across the entire range of scenarios considered at the quadrivalent vaccine list price of £86.50 (€109.23; $136.00) per dose. If two doses give only 10 years' protection but adding a third dose extends this to lifetime protection, then the third dose also seems to be cost effective at £86.50 per dose (median incremental cost effectiveness ratio £17,000, interquartile range £11,700-£25,800). If two doses protect for more than 20 years, then the third dose will have to be priced substantially lower (median threshold price £31, interquartile range £28-£35) to be cost effective. Results are similar for a bivalent vaccine priced at £80.50 per dose and when the same scenarios are explored by parameterising a Canadian model (HPV-ADVISE) with economic data from the United Kingdom. Two dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules are likely to be the most cost effective option provided protection lasts for at least 20 years. As the precise duration of two dose schedules may not be known for decades, cohorts given two doses should be closely

  6. The Impact of Uncertainties in African Biomass Burning Emission Estimates on Modeling Global Air Quality, Long Range Transport and Tropospheric Chemical Lifetimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido R. van der Werf

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The chemical composition of the troposphere in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH is significantly influenced by gaseous emissions released from African biomass burning (BB. Here we investigate how various emission estimates given in bottom-up BB inventories (GFEDv2, GFEDv3, AMMABB affect simulations of global tropospheric composition using the TM4 chemistry transport model. The application of various model parameterizations for introducing such emissions is also investigated. There are perturbations in near-surface ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO of ~60–90% in the tropics and ~5–10% in the SH between different inventories. Increasing the update frequency of the temporal distribution to eight days generally results in decreases of between ~5 and 10% in near-surface mixing ratios throughout the tropics, which is larger than the influence of increasing the injection heights at which BB emissions are introduced. There are also associated differences in the long range transport of pollutants throughout the SH, where the composition of the free troposphere in the SH is sensitive to the chosen BB inventory. Analysis of the chemical budget terms reveals that the influence of increasing the tropospheric CO burden due to BB on oxidative capacity of the troposphere is mitigated by the associated increase in NOx emissions (and thus O3 with the variations in the CO/N ratio between inventories being low. For all inventories there is a decrease in the tropospheric chemical lifetime of methane of between 0.4 and 0.8% regardless of the CO emitted from African BB. This has implications for assessing the effect of inter-annual variability in BB on the annual growth rate of methane.

  7. The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Catherine; Doherty, John

    2006-04-01

    Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The "cost of uniqueness" is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, in turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly "well calibrated". Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post

  8. Fluorescence lifetime based bioassays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Almes, Franz-Josef

    2017-12-01

    Fluorescence lifetime (FLT) is a robust intrinsic property and material constant of fluorescent matter. Measuring this important physical indicator has evolved from a laboratory curiosity to a powerful and established technique for a variety of applications in drug discovery, medical diagnostics and basic biological research. This distinct trend was mainly driven by improved and meanwhile affordable laser and detection instrumentation on the one hand, and the development of suitable FLT probes and biological assays on the other. In this process two essential working approaches emerged. The first one is primarily focused on high throughput applications employing biochemical in vitro assays with no requirement for high spatial resolution. The second even more dynamic trend is the significant expansion of assay methods combining highly time and spatially resolved fluorescence data by fluorescence lifetime imaging. The latter approach is currently pursued to enable not only the investigation of immortal tumor cell lines, but also specific tissues or even organs in living animals. This review tries to give an actual overview about the current status of FLT based bioassays and the wide range of application opportunities in biomedical and life science areas. In addition, future trends of FLT technologies will be discussed.

  9. Modelling the costs of natural hazards in games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, M.

    2012-04-01

    We will present the application of (socio-)economic models coming from games theory to urban planning and to large scale architectural tasks, the most frequent one presented being that of the church. The importance of games will be seen as a continuation of the role played by toys for the development of skills of the architects. While toys dealt with the development of 3D viewing and more realistic "building" focusing, for example, on details, games use stylized construction management models with "symbols" for resources, being it in a board game or in a computer supported social environment. 22 October 1997 to 31 May 1998 the Canadian Centre of Architecture hosted the exhibition "Toy Town". Apart of architecture toys, a field where principles of city building apply are architecture games. City building games are a subgenre of construction and management games, the best know of each is SimCity. In its initial version of 1989 SimCity included disaster scenarios including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but also flooding, fire etc. During the further development only the fire remained as well implemented as the initial scenarios. It was a way to look at the role of disasters in urban planning, not only as way for a new begin, but also as mitigation and earthquake management. It is to be noted that disasters represented in SimCity 2000 are converted to such which develop in surface, such as fire and flood. Earthquake damage which occures at random buildings is not modelled. Also, the fight against the consequences of the disaster, fire and flood are done in a realtime first hand action game, not as construction management game. However, there are costs associated to mitigating the disaster, such as the costs for fire fighters. Today such city building games evolved to 3D applications, the semantic enrichment of which involves the economic model. The digital 3D model will be compared with the "hard copy" 3D model which architecture toys represent. Models for Sim

  10. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  11. The Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Cost Essential Antihypertensive Medicines for Hypertension Control in China: A Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Dongfeng; He, Jiang; Coxson, Pamela G; Rasmussen, Petra W; Huang, Chen; Thanataveerat, Anusorn; Tzong, Keane Y; Xiong, Juyang; Wang, Miao; Zhao, Dong; Goldman, Lee; Moran, Andrew E

    2015-08-01

    Hypertension is China's leading cardiovascular disease risk factor. Improved hypertension control in China would result in result in enormous health gains in the world's largest population. A computer simulation model projected the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in Chinese adults, assuming a range of essential medicines list drug costs. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China, a Markov-style computer simulation model, simulated hypertension screening, essential medicines program implementation, hypertension control program administration, drug treatment and monitoring costs, disease-related costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by preventing cardiovascular disease or lost because of drug side effects in untreated hypertensive adults aged 35-84 y over 2015-2025. Cost-effectiveness was assessed in cardiovascular disease patients (secondary prevention) and for two blood pressure ranges in primary prevention (stage one, 140-159/90-99 mm Hg; stage two, ≥160/≥100 mm Hg). Treatment of isolated systolic hypertension and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension were modeled as a reduction in systolic blood pressure; treatment of isolated diastolic hypertension was modeled as a reduction in diastolic blood pressure. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored ranges of antihypertensive drug effectiveness and costs, monitoring frequency, medication adherence, side effect severity, background hypertension prevalence, antihypertensive medication treatment, case fatality, incidence and prevalence, and cardiovascular disease treatment costs. Median antihypertensive costs from Shanghai and Yunnan province were entered into the model in order to estimate the effects of very low and high drug prices. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than the per capita gross domestic product of China (11,900 international dollars [Int$] in 2015) were considered cost-effective. Treating hypertensive adults with prior cardiovascular

  12. The Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Cost Essential Antihypertensive Medicines for Hypertension Control in China: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongfeng Gu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is China's leading cardiovascular disease risk factor. Improved hypertension control in China would result in result in enormous health gains in the world's largest population. A computer simulation model projected the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in Chinese adults, assuming a range of essential medicines list drug costs.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China, a Markov-style computer simulation model, simulated hypertension screening, essential medicines program implementation, hypertension control program administration, drug treatment and monitoring costs, disease-related costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs gained by preventing cardiovascular disease or lost because of drug side effects in untreated hypertensive adults aged 35-84 y over 2015-2025. Cost-effectiveness was assessed in cardiovascular disease patients (secondary prevention and for two blood pressure ranges in primary prevention (stage one, 140-159/90-99 mm Hg; stage two, ≥160/≥100 mm Hg. Treatment of isolated systolic hypertension and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension were modeled as a reduction in systolic blood pressure; treatment of isolated diastolic hypertension was modeled as a reduction in diastolic blood pressure. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored ranges of antihypertensive drug effectiveness and costs, monitoring frequency, medication adherence, side effect severity, background hypertension prevalence, antihypertensive medication treatment, case fatality, incidence and prevalence, and cardiovascular disease treatment costs. Median antihypertensive costs from Shanghai and Yunnan province were entered into the model in order to estimate the effects of very low and high drug prices. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than the per capita gross domestic product of China (11,900 international dollars [Int$] in 2015 were considered cost-effective. Treating hypertensive adults with prior

  13. Uncertainties in the proton lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Rudaz, S.; Gaillard, M.K.

    1980-04-01

    We discuss the masses of the leptoquark bosons m(x) and the proton lifetime in Grand Unified Theories based principally on SU(5). It is emphasized that estimates of m(x) based on the QCD coupling and the fine structure constant are probably more reliable than those using the experimental value of sin 2 theta(w). Uncertainties in the QCD Λ parameter and the correct value of α are discussed. We estimate higher order effects on the evolution of coupling constants in a momentum space renormalization scheme. It is shown that increasing the number of generations of fermions beyond the minimal three increases m(X) by almost a factor of 2 per generation. Additional uncertainties exist for each generation of technifermions that may exist. We discuss and discount the possibility that proton decay could be 'Cabibbo-rotated' away, and a speculation that Lorentz invariance may be violated in proton decay at a detectable level. We estimate that in the absence of any substantial new physics beyond that in the minimal SU(5) model the proton lifetimes is 8 x 10 30+-2 years

  14. Modeling the time and cost to drill an offshore well

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.

    2009-01-01

    The objective in drilling a hydrocarbon well is to make hole as quickly as possible subject to the technological, operational, quality, and safety constraints associated with the process. These objectives are frequently conflicting and depend on factors that are subject to significant private and market uncertainty. There is no way to identify all of the relevant characteristics of drilling operations, but through use of statistical analysis and empirical modeling, it is possible to develop relations that characterize and benchmark drilling performance under a suitable set of assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to develop the conceptual framework to model the time and cost to drill an offshore well and to illustrate the methodology on a test set of wells in the Gulf of Mexico. The physical characteristics of the wellbore and operational aspects of drilling, including variables such as the drilled interval, horizontal displacement, aspect ratio, number of casing strings, and mud weight, serve as the primary descriptive factors in the functional relations constructed.

  15. Updating Linear Schedules with Lowest Cost: a Linear Programming Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biruk, Sławomir; Jaśkowski, Piotr; Czarnigowska, Agata

    2017-10-01

    Many civil engineering projects involve sets of tasks repeated in a predefined sequence in a number of work areas along a particular route. A useful graphical representation of schedules of such projects is time-distance diagrams that clearly show what process is conducted at a particular point of time and in particular location. With repetitive tasks, the quality of project performance is conditioned by the ability of the planner to optimize workflow by synchronizing the works and resources, which usually means that resources are planned to be continuously utilized. However, construction processes are prone to risks, and a fully synchronized schedule may expire if a disturbance (bad weather, machine failure etc.) affects even one task. In such cases, works need to be rescheduled, and another optimal schedule should be built for the changed circumstances. This typically means that, to meet the fixed completion date, durations of operations have to be reduced. A number of measures are possible to achieve such reduction: working overtime, employing more resources or relocating resources from less to more critical tasks, but they all come at a considerable cost and affect the whole project. The paper investigates the problem of selecting the measures that reduce durations of tasks of a linear project so that the cost of these measures is kept to the minimum and proposes an algorithm that could be applied to find optimal solutions as the need to reschedule arises. Considering that civil engineering projects, such as road building, usually involve less process types than construction projects, the complexity of scheduling problems is lower, and precise optimization algorithms can be applied. Therefore, the authors put forward a linear programming model of the problem and illustrate its principle of operation with an example.

  16. Economic Competitiveness of U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Systems in 2015: Regional Cost Modeling of Installed Cost ($/W) and LCOE ($/kWh)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fu, Ran; James, Ted L.; Chung, Donald; Gagne, Douglas; Lopez, Anthony; Dobos, Aron

    2015-06-14

    Utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system growth is largely driven by the economic metrics of total installed costs and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), which differ by region. This study details regional cost factors, including environment (wind speed and snow loads), labor costs, material costs, sales taxes, and permitting costs using a new system-level bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to identify regional all-in PV installed costs for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracker systems in the United States with consideration of union and non-union labor costs in 2015. LCOEs using those regional installed costs are then modeled and spatially presented. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of increasing module conversion efficiencies on PV system costs in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of module technology advancements and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. SunShot targets.

  17. Solar PV Manufacturing Cost Model Group: Installed Solar PV System Prices (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodrich, A. C.; Woodhouse, M.; James, T.

    2011-02-01

    EERE's Solar Energy Technologies Program is charged with leading the Secretary's SunShot Initiative to reduce the cost of electricity from solar by 75% to be cost competitive with conventional energy sources without subsidy by the end of the decade. As part of this Initiative, the program has funded the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop module manufacturing and solar PV system installation cost models to ensure that the program's cost reduction targets are carefully aligned with current and near term industry costs. The NREL cost analysis team has leveraged the laboratories' extensive experience in the areas of project finance and deployment, as well as industry partnerships, to develop cost models that mirror the project cost analysis tools used by project managers at leading U.S. installers. The cost models are constructed through a "bottoms-up" assessment of each major cost element, beginning with the system's bill of materials, labor requirements (type and hours) by component, site-specific charges, and soft costs. In addition to the relevant engineering, procurement, and construction costs, the models also consider all relevant costs to an installer, including labor burdens and overhead rates, supply chain costs, and overhead and materials inventory costs, and assume market-specific profits.

  18. A Model for Understanding the Relationship Between Transaction Costs and Acquisition Cost Breaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-30

    John Dillard, Chip Franck, and Francois Melese. 2007. Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation. NPS...GSBPP-07-008. Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School. Angelis, Diana, John Dillard, Chip Franck, and Francois Melese. 2008. Measuring Transaction...Jeffrey A. Drezner, James Dryden , Kenneth Horn, James G. Kallimani, Martin C. Libicki, Megan McKernan, Roger C. Molander, Charles Nemfakos, Chad J.R

  19. A Response Surface-Based Cost Model for Wind Farm Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Castillo, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    A Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model is developed for the engineering planning of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S. This model is then used to explore the influences of different design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three components that estimate the effects of engineering and economic factors on (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O and M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. The final RS-WFC model provided interesting insights into cost variation with respect to critical engineering and economic parameters. In addition, a newly developed analytical wind farm engineering model is used to determine the power generated by the farm, and the subsequent Cost of Energy (COE). This COE is optimized for a unidirectional uniform “incoming wind speed” scenario using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We found that the COE could be appreciably minimized through layout optimization, thereby yielding significant cost savings. - Highlights: ► We present a Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model for wind farm design. ► The model could estimate installation cost, Operation and Maintenance cost, and total annual cost of a wind farm. ► The Cost of Energy is optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization. ► Layout optimization could yield significant cost savings.

  20. Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of second- and third-generation left ventricular assist devices as either bridge to transplant or alternative to transplant for adults eligible for heart transplantation: systematic review and cost-effectiveness model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, P; Connock, M; Pulikottil-Jacob, R; Kandala, N-B; Suri, G; Gurung, T; Grove, A; Shyangdan, D; Briscoe, S; Maheswaran, H; Clarke, A

    2013-11-01

    -effectiveness of second- and third-generation US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or Conformité Européenne (CE) approved VADs. Publications from the last 5 years with control groups, or case series with 50 or more patients were included. Outcomes included survival, functional capacity (e.g. change in New York Heart Association functional classification), quality of life (QoL) and adverse events. Data from the BTDB were obtained. A discrete-time, semi-Markov, multistate model was built. Deterministic and probabilistic methods with multiple sensitivity analyses varying survival, utilities and cost inputs to the model were used. Model outputs were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), cost/quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and cost/life-year gained (LYG). The discount rate was 3.5% and the time horizon varied over 3 years, 10 years and lifetime. Forty publications reported clinical effectiveness of VADs and one study reported cost-effectiveness. We found no high-quality comparative empirical studies of VADs as BTT compared with MM or as ATT compared with BTT. Approximately 15-25% of the patients receiving a device had died by 12 months. Studies reported the following wide ranges for adverse events: 4-27% bleeding requiring transfusion; 1.5-40% stroke; 3.3-48% infection; 1-14% device failure; 3-30% HF; 11-32% reoperation; and 3-53% renal failure. QoL and functional status were reported as improved in studies of two devices [HeartMate II (HMII; Thoratec Inc., Pleasanton, CA, USA) and HeartWare (HW; HeartWare Inc., Framingham, MA, USA)]. At 3 years, 10 years and lifetime, the ICERs for VADs as BTT compared with MM were £122,730, £68,088 and £55,173 respectively. These values were stable to changes in survival of the MM group. Both QoL and costs were reduced by VADs as ATT compared with VADs as BTT giving ICERs in south-west quadrant of the cost effectiveness plain (cost saving/QALY sacrificed) of £353,467, £31,685 and £20,637 over the 3 years, 10 years

  1. I-RaCM: A Fully Integrated Risk and Lifecycle Cost Model, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) proposes development of the Integrated Risk and Cost Model I-RaCM, as the innovation to meet the need for integrated cost and risk...

  2. The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Scaling up Screening and Treatment of Syphilis in Pregnancy: A Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, James G.; Jiwani, Aliya; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Hawkes, Sarah J.; Chesson, Harrell W.; Broutet, Nathalie; Kamb, Mary L.; Newman, Lori M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Syphilis in pregnancy imposes a significant global health and economic burden. More than half of cases result in serious adverse events, including infant mortality and infection. The annual global burden from mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis is estimated at 3.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and $309 million in medical costs. Syphilis screening and treatment is simple, effective, and affordable, yet, worldwide, most pregnant women do not receive these services. We assessed cost-effectiveness of scaling-up syphilis screening and treatment in existing antenatal care (ANC) programs in various programmatic, epidemiologic, and economic contexts. Methods and Findings We modeled the cost, health impact, and cost-effectiveness of expanded syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, compared to current services, for 1,000,000 pregnancies per year over four years. We defined eight generic country scenarios by systematically varying three factors: current maternal syphilis testing and treatment coverage, syphilis prevalence in pregnant women, and the cost of healthcare. We calculated program and net costs, DALYs averted, and net costs per DALY averted over four years in each scenario. Program costs are estimated at $4,142,287 – $8,235,796 per million pregnant women (2010 USD). Net costs, adjusted for averted medical care and current services, range from net savings of $12,261,250 to net costs of $1,736,807. The program averts an estimated 5,754 – 93,484 DALYs, yielding net savings in four scenarios, and a cost per DALY averted of $24 – $111 in the four scenarios with net costs. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Eliminating MTCT of syphilis through expanded screening and treatment in ANC is likely to be highly cost-effective by WHO-defined thresholds in a wide range of settings. Countries with high prevalence, low current service coverage, and high healthcare cost would benefit most. Future analyses can be

  3. INFORMATION MODEL OF MAJOR DEPRESSION TREATMENT COST - RELEVANCE OF QUALITY MANAGEMENT OF HEALTH SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Tadić

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops multirelational data base for major depression costs. It lists how data are collected and stored into the fact base and dimension base. Uncertain data is described linguistically and modelled by fuzzy sets. Linguistic expressions are stored in dimension base. Models of major depression treatment costs are developed for each patient and all population. On the basis of this model and multirelational data base MD-OLAP a model for major depression treatment costs is developed.

  4. Software Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study of What the Models Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    generate good cost estimates. One model developer best summed up this sentiment by stating: Estimation is not a mechanical process. Art, skill, and...Allocation Perc.uinta~es for SASEY Development Phases Sysieni Conce~pt 7.5% yseS/W Requ~irements Anlysis _________%__ S/W Raq;iirements Analysis 9.0

  5. Cost savings from nuclear regulatory reform: An econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canterbery, E.R.; Johnson, B.; Reading, D.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear-generated power touted in the 1950s as someday being open-quotes too cheap to meterclose quotes got dismissed in the 1980s as incapable of being both safe and cost effective. Today, less than 20 percent of American's electricity is nuclear-generated, no new plants are planned or on order, and some of the earliest units are scheduled for decommissioning within the next decade. Even so, interest in nuclear power has been revived by increasing energy demands, concerns about global warming, and the uncertainty surrounding oil resources in the Persian Gulf. As a long-term alternative to fossil fuels, atomic energy offers the important advantages of clean air and domestic availability of fuel. But these advantages will count for little unless and until the costs of nuclear power can be seen as reasonable. The authors premise is that the relevant costs are those of providing safe and environmentally clean electric energy. To the extent that increased costs have resulted from increasingly stringent regulations, they reflect the internalization of external costs. Indeed, the external costs of nuclear power (particularly safety and environmental protection) have been internalized to a greater degree than with most alternative fuel sources used by electric utilities. Nuclear construction costs are properly compared with those of alternative sources only after the latter are adjusted for environmental damage and endangerment, including, as examples, the costs of oil spills, of building double-hulled tankers, and of building off-shore offloading facilities. A shift to nuclear sources could reduce these costs whereas it would increase disposal costs for radioactive materials. The authors contend that a better understanding of nuclear plant construction costs is pivotal to a balanced evaluation of the merits of uranium relative to other fuel choices. 12 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  6. Personality, IQ, and Lifetime Earnings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gensowski, Miriam

    2014-01-01

    , as identified in a factor model, significantly affect earnings, but not for young workers. The effects are furthermore heterogeneous by educational attainment. For women, personality traits do not affect family earnings in the same way as own earnings. Personality and IQ also influence earnings indirectly......Talented individuals are seen as drivers of long-term growth, but how do they realize their full potential? In this paper, I show that lifetime earnings of high-IQ men and women are substantially influenced by their personality traits, in addition to intelligence and education. Personality traits...... on detailed background information. This paper complements the literature on investments in education and personality traits by showing that they also have potentially high returns at the high end of the ability distribution....

  7. Insight into carrier lifetime impact on band-modulation devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parihar, Mukta Singh; Lee, Kyung Hwa; Park, Hyung Jin; Lacord, Joris; Martinie, Sébastien; Barbé, Jean-Charles; Xu, Yue; El Dirani, Hassan; Taur, Yuan; Cristoloveanu, Sorin; Bawedin, Maryline

    2018-05-01

    A systematic study to model and characterize the band-modulation Z2-FET device is developed bringing light to the relevance of the carrier lifetime influence. This work provides guidelines to optimize the Z2-FETs for sharp switching, ESD protection, and 1T-DRAM applications. Lower carrier lifetime in the Z2-FET helps in attaining the sharp switch. We provide new insights into the correlation between generation/recombination, diffusion, electrostatic barriers and carrier lifetime.

  8. Cost and cost effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets - a model-based analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pulkki-Brännström Anni-Maria

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The World Health Organization recommends that national malaria programmes universally distribute long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLINs. LLINs provide effective insecticide protection for at least three years while conventional nets must be retreated every 6-12 months. LLINs may also promise longer physical durability (lifespan, but at a higher unit price. No prospective data currently available is sufficient to calculate the comparative cost effectiveness of different net types. We thus constructed a model to explore the cost effectiveness of LLINs, asking how a longer lifespan affects the relative cost effectiveness of nets, and if, when and why LLINs might be preferred to conventional insecticide-treated nets. An innovation of our model is that we also considered the replenishment need i.e. loss of nets over time. Methods We modelled the choice of net over a 10-year period to facilitate the comparison of nets with different lifespan (and/or price and replenishment need over time. Our base case represents a large-scale programme which achieves high coverage and usage throughout the population by distributing either LLINs or conventional nets through existing health services, and retreats a large proportion of conventional nets regularly at low cost. We identified the determinants of bed net programme cost effectiveness and parameter values for usage rate, delivery and retreatment cost from the literature. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to explicitly compare the differential effect of changing parameters such as price, lifespan, usage and replenishment need. Results If conventional and long-lasting bed nets have the same physical lifespan (3 years, LLINs are more cost effective unless they are priced at more than USD 1.5 above the price of conventional nets. Because a longer lifespan brings delivery cost savings, each one year increase in lifespan can be accompanied by a USD 1 or more increase in price

  9. Modelling the Effects and Costs of Colorectal Cancer Screening

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.L. Goede (Luuk)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The thesis focused on the potential effects and costs of population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening by considering two overarching questions. In the first part of the thesis the potential impact of current screening policies on the CRC disease burden and costs

  10. Quantum system lifetimes and measurement perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najakov, E.

    1977-05-01

    The recently proposed description of quantum system decay in terms of repeated measurement perturbations is modified. The possibility of retarded reductions to a unique quantum state, due to ineffective localization of the decay products at initial time measurements, is simply taken into account. The exponential decay law is verified again. A modified equation giving the observed lifetime in terms of unperturbed quantum decay law, measurement frequency and reduction law is derived. It predicts deviations of the observed lifetime from the umperturbed one, together with a dependence on experimental procedures. The influence of different model unperturbed decay laws and reduction laws on this effect is studied

  11. Distribution of lifetime nursing home use and of out-of-pocket spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Rohwedder, Susann

    2017-09-12

    Reliable estimates of the lifetime risk of using a nursing home and the associated out-of-pocket costs are important for the saving decisions by individuals and families, and for the purchase of long-term care insurance. We used data on up to 18 y of nursing home use and out-of-pocket costs drawn from the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal household survey representative of the older US population. We accumulated the use and spending by individuals over many years, and we developed and used an individual-level matching method to account for use before and after the observation period. In addition, for forecasting, we estimated a dynamic parametric model of nursing home use and spending. We found that 56% of persons aged 57-61 will stay at least one night in a nursing home during their lifetimes, but only 32% of the cohort will pay anything out of pocket. Averaged over all persons, total out-of-pocket expenditures looking forward from age 57 were approximately $7,300, discounted at 3% per year. However, the 95th percentile of spending was almost $47,000. We conclude that the percentage of people ever staying in nursing homes is substantially higher than previous estimates, at least partly due to an increase in nursing home episodes of short duration. Average lifetime out-of-pocket costs may be affordable, but some people will incur much higher costs.

  12. A KBE genetic-causal cost modelling methodology for manufacturing cost contingency management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curran, R.; Gilmour, M.; McAlleean, C.; Kelly, P.

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides validated evidence of a robust methodology for the management of lean manufacturing cost contingency, with a particular focus on contingency regarding recurring work content. A truly concurrent engineering process is established by capturing a range of knowledge from the design,

  13. Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda

    2012-01-01

    Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.

  14. A bimodal flexible distribution for lifetime data

    OpenAIRE

    Ramires, Thiago G.; Ortega, Edwin M. M.; Cordeiro, Gauss M.; Hens, Niel

    2016-01-01

    A four-parameter extended bimodal lifetime model called the exponentiated log-sinh Cauchy distribution is proposed. It extends the log-sinh Cauchy and folded Cauchy distributions. We derive some of its mathematical properties including explicit expressions for the ordinary moments and generating and quantile functions. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the model parameters. We implement the fit of the model in the GAMLSS package and provide the codes. The flexibility of the...

  15. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    OpenAIRE

    Keller Alevtina; Vinogradova Tatyana

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the...

  16. 76 FR 80941 - Request for Connect America Fund Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-27

    ... deployment decisions. Given the five- year time horizon of CAF Phase II funding, existing deployments, and... or transportation; and captured the impact on cost of economic and accounting lives of plant and...

  17. Towards a Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost approximately (X) D(exp (1.75 +/- 0.05)) lambda(exp(-0.5 +/- 0.25) T(exp -0.25) e (exp (-0.04)Y). Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

  18. Lifetime Improvement by Battery Scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongerden, M.R.; Schmitt, Jens B.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    The use of mobile devices is often limited by the lifetime of their batteries. For devices that have multiple batteries or that have the option to connect an extra battery, battery scheduling, thereby exploiting the recovery properties of the batteries, can help to extend the system lifetime. Due to

  19. Lifetime improvement by battery scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongerden, M.R.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    The use of mobile devices is often limited by the lifetime of its battery. For devices that have multiple batteries or that have the option to connect an extra battery, battery scheduling, thereby exploiting the recovery properties of the batteries, can help to extend the system lifetime. Due to the

  20. Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

    2014-01-01

    In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

  1. PERFORM 60: Prediction of the effects of radiation for reactor pressure vessel and in-core materials using multi-scale modelling - 60 years foreseen plant lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al Mazouzi, A.; Alamo, A.; Lidbury, D.; Moinereau, D.; Van Dyck, S.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Multi-scale and multi-physics modelling are adopted by PERFORM 60 to predict irradiation damage in nuclear structural materials. → PERFORM 60 allows to Consolidate the community and improve the interaction between universities/industries and safety authorities. → Experimental validation at the relevant scale is a key for developing the multi-scale modelling methodology. - Abstract: In nuclear power plants, materials undergo degradation due to severe irradiation conditions that may limit their operational lifetime. Utilities that operate these reactors need to quantify the ageing and potential degradation of certain essential structures of the power plant to ensure their safe and reliable operation. So far, the monitoring and mitigation of these degradation phenomena rely mainly on long-term irradiation programs in test reactors as well as on mechanical or corrosion testing in specialized hot cells. Continuous progress in the physical understanding of the phenomena involved in irradiation damage and progress in computer sciences have now made possible the development of multi-scale numerical tools able to simulate the materials behaviour in a nuclear environment. Indeed, within the PERFECT project of the EURATOM framework program (FP6), a first step has been successfully reached through the development of a simulation platform that contains several advanced numerical tools aiming at the prediction of irradiation damage in both the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) and its internals using available, state-of-the-art-knowledge. These tools allow simulation of irradiation effects on the nanostructure and the constitutive behaviour of the RPV low alloy steels, as well as their fracture mechanics properties. For the more highly irradiated reactor internals, which are commonly produced using austenitic stainless steels, the first partial models were established, describing radiation effects on the nanostructure and providing a first description of the

  2. A lifetime prediction method for LEDs considering mission profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qu, Xiaohui; Wang, Huai; Zhan, Xiaoqing

    2016-01-01

    and to benchmark the cost-competitiveness of different lighting technologies. The existing lifetime data released by LED manufacturers or standard organizations are usually applicable only for specific temperature and current levels. Significant lifetime discrepancies may be observed in field operations due...... to the varying operational and environmental conditions during the entire service time (i.e., mission profiles). To overcome the challenge, this paper proposes an advanced lifetime prediction method, which takes into account the field operation mission profiles and the statistical properties of the life data...

  3. A Lifetime Prediction Method for LEDs Considering Real Mission Profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qu, Xiaohui; Wang, Huai; Zhan, Xiaoqing

    2017-01-01

    and to benchmark the cost-competitiveness of different lighting technologies. However, the existing lifetime data released by LED manufacturers or standard organizations are usually applicable only for some specific temperature and current levels. Significant lifetime discrepancies may be seen in the field...... operations due to the varying operational and environmental conditions during the entire service time (i.e., mission profiles). To overcome the challenge, this paper proposes an advanced lifetime prediction method, which takes into account the field operation mission profiles and also the statistical...

  4. Cost-effectiveness of interventions for increasing the possession of functioning smoke alarms in households with pre-school children: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saramago, Pedro; Cooper, Nicola J; Sutton, Alex J; Hayes, Mike; Dunn, Ken; Manca, Andrea; Kendrick, Denise

    2014-05-16

    The UK has one of the highest rates for deaths from fire and flames in children aged 0-14 years compared to other high income countries. Evidence shows that smoke alarms can reduce the risk of fire-related injury but little exists on their cost-effectiveness. We aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different interventions for the uptake of 'functioning' smoke alarms and consequently for the prevention of fire-related injuries in children in the UK. We carried out a decision model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a hypothetical population of newborns and evaluated the impact of living in a household with or without a functioning smoke alarm during the first 5 years of their life on overall lifetime costs and quality of life from a public health perspective. We compared seven interventions, ranging from usual care to more complex interventions comprising of education, free/low cost equipment giveaway, equipment fitting and/or home safety inspection. Education and free/low cost equipment was the most cost-effective intervention with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £34,200 per QALY gained compared to usual care. This was reduced to approximately £4,500 per QALY gained when 1.8 children under the age of 5 were assumed per household. Assessing cost-effectiveness, as well as effectiveness, is important in a public sector system operating under a fixed budget restraint. As highlighted in this study, the more effective interventions (in this case the more complex interventions) may not necessarily be the ones considered the most cost-effective.

  5. Mathematical modeling of elementary trapping-reduction processes in positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy: methodology of Ps-to-positron trapping conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpotyuk, Ya; Cebulski, J.; Ingram, A.; Shpotyuk, O.

    2017-12-01

    Methodological possibilities of positron annihilation lifetime (PAL) spectroscopy in application to nanostructurized substances treated within three-term fitting procedure are reconsidered to parameterize their atomic-deficient structural arrangement. In contrast to conventional three-term fitting analysis of the detected PAL spectra based on admixed positron trapping and positronium (Ps) decaying, the nanostructurization due to guest nanoparticles embedded in host matrix is considered as producing modified trapping, which involves conversion between these channels. The developed approach referred to as x3-x2-coupling decomposition algorithm allows estimation free volumes of interfacial voids responsible for positron trapping and bulk lifetimes in nanoparticle-embedded substances. This methodology is validated using experimental data of Chakraverty et al. [Phys. Rev. B71 (2005) 024115] on PAL study of composites formed by guest NiFe2O4 nanocrystals grown in host SiO2 matrix.

  6. Construction cost prediction model for conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Othman Subhi Alshamrani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The literature lacks in initial cost prediction models for college buildings, especially comparing costs of sustainable and conventional buildings. A multi-regression model was developed for conceptual initial cost estimation of conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America. RS Means was used to estimate the national average of construction costs for 2014, which was subsequently utilized to develop the model. The model could predict the initial cost per square feet with two structure types made of steel and concrete. The other predictor variables were building area, number of floors and floor height. The model was developed in three major stages, such as preliminary diagnostics on data quality, model development and validation. The developed model was successfully tested and validated with real-time data.

  7. Teaching Integrated Scope-Cost Methods with Model-based Tools

    OpenAIRE

    Peterson, Forest; Fischer, Martin; Wingate, Thomas; Seppänen, Olli; Tutti, Tomi; See, Richard

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to outline teaching integrated scope-cost methods in a course on fabrication and construction planning using model-based tools. Through project-based active discovery using project documents students create an integrated takeoff, schedule and cost estimate. The goal is to illustrate the processes and interrelation between professions required to effectively obtain the scope, schedule and cost of a proposed project. Students who are provided with a scope-time-cost ...

  8. Estimation of the Service Lifetime of Concrete Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In this paper estimation of the service lifetime of concrete bridges is discussed. The main reason for deterioration of concrete bridges is corrosion of the reinforcement. Therefore, modelling of the corrosion process is an important aspect of the estimation of the service lifetime. In this paper...

  9. Costs of treatment of haemophilia A in Italy: comparison of the use of plasma-derived and recombinant FVIII using a discrete event simulation (DES model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Eandi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To simulate haemophilia A (HA real-life management and compare the cost of different treatment strategies, both with plasma-derived and recombinant factor VIII (pdFVIII and rFVIII, respectively, from the perspective of the Italian NHS.METHODS: A discrete event (micro-simulation (DES model was developed to reproduce every possible HA patient clinical pathway: on-demand (OD treatment of bleeding, continuous or discontinuous prophylaxis (PRO with FVIII, inhibitors-tolerance-induction treatment (ITI, surgery in case of severe disability. Patient characteristics, treatment indications and disease evolution were modeled basing on data available in clinical literature in order to represent the actual state of art of HA management. In addition to the baseline scenario, reproducing current HA management, alternative strategies were simulated to explore the impact on the cost borne by the Italian NHS for these patients. Only differential direct sanitary costs were considered in the simulation, with a 3.5% discount rate.RESULTS: Baseline scenario results show difference between patients treated with pdFVIII and those treated with rFVIII: mean lifetime HA patient management cost was estimated at € 1,332,373 with pdFVIII treatment, compared with € 2,013,222 for rFVIII. The saving is due mainly to the lower acquisition cost of pdFVIII. Total medical costs are strongly and positively correlated with HA severity: cost per patient increases from € 86,269 (mild HA to € 1,509,231 (severe HA for patients treated with pdFVIII and from € 147,900 to € 2,621,540 in patients treated with rFVIII. All analyses conducted in the study lead to the conclusion that the use of pdFVIII is much less expensive than rFVIII, but therapeutically equivalent.CONCLUSION: Management of HA patients is complex and difficult to optimize; although involving a limited number of patients, lifetime management costs for the Italian NHS are extremely high. The main

  10. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  11. Congestion cost allocation method in a pool model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, H.S.; Hur, D.; Park, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    The congestion cost caused by transmission capacities and voltage limit is an important issue in a competitive electricity market. To allocate the congestion cost equitably, the active constraints in a constrained dispatch and the sequence of these constraints should be considered. A multi-stage method is proposed which reflects the effects of both the active constraints and the sequence. In a multi-stage method, the types of congestion are analysed in order to consider the sequence, and the relationship between congestion and the active constraints is derived in a mathematical way. The case study shows that the proposed method can give more accurate and equitable signals to customers. (Author)

  12. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon [Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

  13. Benchmarking in pathology: development of an activity-based costing model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Leslie; Wilson, Roger; Pfeffer, Sally; Lowry, John

    2012-12-01

    Benchmarking in Pathology (BiP) allows pathology laboratories to determine the unit cost of all laboratory tests and procedures, and also provides organisational productivity indices allowing comparisons of performance with other BiP participants. We describe 14 years of progressive enhancement to a BiP program, including the implementation of 'avoidable costs' as the accounting basis for allocation of costs rather than previous approaches using 'total costs'. A hierarchical tree-structured activity-based costing model distributes 'avoidable costs' attributable to the pathology activities component of a pathology laboratory operation. The hierarchical tree model permits costs to be allocated across multiple laboratory sites and organisational structures. This has enabled benchmarking on a number of levels, including test profiles and non-testing related workload activities. The development of methods for dealing with variable cost inputs, allocation of indirect costs using imputation techniques, panels of tests, and blood-bank record keeping, have been successfully integrated into the costing model. A variety of laboratory management reports are produced, including the 'cost per test' of each pathology 'test' output. Benchmarking comparisons may be undertaken at any and all of the 'cost per test' and 'cost per Benchmarking Complexity Unit' level, 'discipline/department' (sub-specialty) level, or overall laboratory/site and organisational levels. We have completed development of a national BiP program. An activity-based costing methodology based on avoidable costs overcomes many problems of previous benchmarking studies based on total costs. The use of benchmarking complexity adjustment permits correction for varying test-mix and diagnostic complexity between laboratories. Use of iterative communication strategies with program participants can overcome many obstacles and lead to innovations.

  14. A drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riewpaiboon A

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at a regional hospital in Thailand. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004. Results: Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36. The fitted drug cost model had an adjusted R2 of 0.449. The positive significant predictor variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over 30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of accident during 18:00-24:00 o’clock, and motorcycle comparing to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on the forecasted values of statistically significant (p<0.05 predictor variables included in the fitted model; predicted total drug cost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost, predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43% higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach.Conclusions: The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The application of a predicted average cost model could result in a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic approach.

  15. Accelerated Lifetime Testing Methodology for Lifetime Estimation of Lithium-ion Batteries used in Augmented Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stan, Ana-Irina

    2014-01-01

    The development of lifetime estimation models for Lithium-ion battery cells, which are working under highly variable mission profiles characteristic for wind power plant applications, requires a lot of expenditures and time resources. Therefore, batteries have to be tested under accelerated...... lifetime ageing conditions. This paper presents a three-stage methodology used for accelerated lifetime testing of Lithium ion batteries. The results obtained at the end of the accelerated ageing process were used for the parametrization of a performance-degradation lifetime model, which is able to predict...... was validated by running a verification stage of the lifetime model, where Lithium-ion battery cells were tested at normal operating conditions using an application specific mission profile....

  16. The application of EOQ and lead time crashing cost models in material with limited life time (Case study: CN-235 Aircraft at PT Dirgantara Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agustina Hidayat, Yosi; Ria Kasanah, Aprilia; Yudhistira, Titah

    2016-02-01

    PT. Dirgantara Indonesia, one of State Owned Enterprises engaging in the aerospace industry, targets to control 30% of world market for light and medium sized aircraft. One type of the aircrafts produced by PT. DI every year is CN-235. Currently, the cost of material procurement reaches 50% of the total cost of production. Material has a variety of characteristics, one of which is having a lifetime. The demand characteristic of the material with expiration for the CN-235 aircraft is deterministic. PT DI does not have any scientific background for its procurement of raw material policy. In addition, there are two methods of transportation used for delivering materials, i.e. by land and air. Each method has different lead time. Inventory policies used in this research are deterministic and probabilistic. Both deterministic and probabilistic single and multi-item inventory policies have order quantity, time to order, reorder point, and lead time as decision variables. The performance indicator for this research is total inventory cost. Inventory policy using the single item EOQ and considering expiration factor inventory results in a reduction in total costs up to 69.58% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.16%. Inventory policy proposal using the model of a single item by considering expiration factor and lead time crashing cost results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.5% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.62%. Subsequently, wasted expired materials, with the proposed models have been successfully decreased to 95%.

  17. Network Formation Models With Costs for Establishing Links

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slikker, M.; van den Nouweland, C.G.A.M.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we study endogenous formation of communication networks in situations where the economic possibilities of groups of players can be described by a cooperative game. We concentrate on the in uence that the existence of costs for establishing communication links has on the communication

  18. An optimal promotion cost control model for a Markovian manpower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theory concerning the existence of an optimal promotion control strategy for controlling a Markovian manpower system is developed. Control interventions are made at controller's specific time point with cost as an optimality performance criterion. A dynamic programming technique is adopted for the optimal solution and ...

  19. An optimal promotion cost control model for a markovian manpower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theory concerning the existence of an optimal promotion control strategy for controlling a Markovian manpower system is developed. Control interventions are made at controller's specific time point with cost as an optimality performance criterion. A dynamic programming technique is adopted for the optimal solution and ...

  20. Adjustment costs in a two-capital growth model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duczynski, Petr

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 5 (2002), s. 837-850 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK9058117 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : adjustment costs * capital mobility * convergence * human capital Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.738, year: 2002

  1. PUBSCOST: A Model that Accurately Determines Cost of Publications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    layout. Output also includes validacion /verificat ion and technical manual plan costs, as well as direct labor, material, CG&A, profit, and overhead. 40...48090 Commander US Army Troop Support Command (TROSCOM) ATTN: AMSTR-QE 4300 Goodfellow Boulevard St. Louis, MO 63120-1798 Commander US Army Test and

  2. Deep update with new water transport cost model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khamis, I.; Ibrahim, A.H.A.D.; Suleiman, S.

    2007-01-01

    DEEP 3.11 is a new version of DEEP which is capable to calculate the water transport cost in any place, with acceptable accuracy. The user needs only to specify water flow or the capacity, pipeline length and elevation of sites against sea level or difference in elevation of the beginning and end of the pipeline routs

  3. Modeling U.S. Air Force Occupational Health Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    Transient cerebral ischemia 435 7.5% Acute, but ill-defined, cerebrovascular disease 436 7.5% Other and ill-defined cerebrovascular disease 437 7.5% Late...24 Accident Investigation, Reporting, and Record Keeping...occupational illness costs for hospitalization of occupational illnesses. According to DoD Instruction 6055.07, Accident Investigation, Reporting, and

  4. The cost and impact of scaling up pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: a systematic review of cost-effectiveness modelling studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomez, Gabriela B.; Borquez, Annick; Case, Kelsey K.; Wheelock, Ana; Vassall, Anna; Hankins, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness studies inform resource allocation, strategy, and policy development. However, due to their complexity, dependence on assumptions made, and inherent uncertainty, synthesising, and generalising the results can be difficult. We assess cost-effectiveness models evaluating expected

  5. Electricite de France: Lifetime Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combes, Jean-Pierre

    1991-01-01

    Electricite de France produces almost 80% of its electricity by means of standardized PWR nuclear power stations. Starting in 1986, therefore, a project known as the 'Lifetime Project' was developed, whose aim was initially to ensure that the lifetime defined at design stage (40 years in general) could be attained without major difficulty (follow up of the aging process). It then became apparent that it would be useful to know just how far it would be technically and economically possible to go. As a result, the project is now working towards increasing the lifetime of power stations. (author)

  6. Development of a risk-based mine closure cost calculation model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The study summarised in this paper focused on expanding existing South African mine closure cost calculation models to provide a new model that incorporates risks, which could have an effect on the closure costs during the life cycle of the mine...

  7. 511, America's traveler information number. Deployment assistance report #1, Business models and cost considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Business models and cost recovery are the critical factors for determining the sustainability of the traveler information service, and 511. In March 2001 the Policy Committee directed the 511 Working Group to investigate plausible business models and...

  8. Estimating US dairy clinical disease costs with a stochastic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, D; Arnold, L M; Stowe, C J; Harmon, R J; Bewley, J M

    2017-02-01

    A farm-level stochastic model was used to estimate costs of 7 common clinical diseases in the United States: mastitis, lameness, metritis, retained placenta, left-displaced abomasum, ketosis, and hypocalcemia. The total disease costs were divided into 7 categories: veterinary and treatment, producer labor, milk loss, discarded milk, culling cost, extended days open, and on-farm death. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5,000 iterations was applied to the model to account for inherent system variation. Four types of market prices (milk, feed, slaughter, and replacement cow) and 3 herd-performance factors (rolling herd average, product of heat detection rate and conception rate, and age at first calving) were modeled stochastically. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to study the relationship between total disease costs and selected stochastic factors. In general, the disease costs in multiparous cows were greater than in primiparous cows. Left-displaced abomasum had the greatest estimated total costs in all parities ($432.48 in primiparous cows and $639.51 in multiparous cows). Cost category contributions varied for different diseases and parities. Milk production loss and treatment cost were the 2 greatest cost categories. The effect of market prices were consistent in all diseases and parities; higher milk and replacement prices increased total costs, whereas greater feed and slaughter prices decreased disease costs. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Douglas B. Rideout

    2003-01-01

    The Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors...

  10. Novel polymeric phosphonate scale inhibitors for improved squeeze treatment lifetimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, G.E.; Poynton, N.; McLaughlin, K.; Clark, D.R.

    1996-12-31

    New patented chemistry has provided an exciting discovery which may be used to reduce costs in scale squeeze applications. Phosphomethylated polyamines (PMPAs) have been found to possess outstanding adsorption-desorption properties which generate long squeeze lifetimes. This paper describes the core-flood tests and modelling work, which highlight these properties, plus additional scale inhibition performance studies to demonstrate the all-round capabilities of this chemistry for squeeze treatments. An example of a PMPA is used to show the extremely viable adsorption and desorption isotherms. These illustrate the efficient way in which the desorption occurs to minimise the chemical in the returns with a benefit of reduced chemical content in the discharge. The PMPA also demonstrates that both polymer and phosphonate properties can be embraced in a single product (e.g. dual scale control mechanisms) confirming that this chemistry is a true polymeric phosphonate. 13 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Lifetime prediction of LED lighting systems considering thermal coupling between LED sources and drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alfarog, Azzarn Orner; Qu, Xiaohui; Wang, Huai

    2017-01-01

    The lifetime prediction of LED lighting system is important to guide the designers to fulfill the design specifications and to benchmark the cost-competitiveness of different lighting technologies. Currently, the lifetime of LED system is usually predicted from the source part and the driver part...... separately, and then the thermal design is also optimized independently. In practice, the LED source and driver are usually compacted in a single fixture. The heat dissipated from LED source and driver will be coupled together and affect the heat transfer performance, which may degrade the whole system...... and accelerate the failure. In this paper, a new thermal model concerning the thermal coupling is proposed with Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation for parameter acquirement. The proposed model has a better estimation of the thermal stresses of key components in the LED lamps and therefore an improved...

  12. The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Lessler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed introductions of disease is small (<1 per day but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

  13. A model for the inverse 1-median problem on trees under uncertain costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kien Trung Nguyen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of justifying vertex weights of a tree under uncertain costs so that a prespecified vertex become optimal and the total cost should be optimal in the uncertainty scenario. We propose a model which delivers the information about the optimal cost which respect to each confidence level \\(\\alpha \\in [0,1]\\. To obtain this goal, we first define an uncertain variable with respect to the minimum cost in each confidence level. If all costs are independently linear distributed, we present the inverse distribution function of this uncertain variable in \\(O(n^{2}\\log n\\ time, where \\(n\\ is the number of vertices in the tree.

  14. Radiative lifetimes of neutral samarium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Hartog, E A; Lawler, J E

    2013-01-01

    Radiative lifetimes of 120 odd-parity levels of neutral samarium, ranging in energy from 17 190 to 33 507 cm −1 , are measured using the technique of time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence on a slow atomic beam. This work is part of an ongoing study of radiative properties of rare earth neutral atoms, and is motivated by research needs in astrophysics and lighting technology. This set of Sm i lifetimes substantially increases the available published lifetime data, with 49 of the 120 level lifetimes measured for the first time. These data, most of which are accurate to ±5%, will be combined with branching fractions determined from Fourier transform spectroscopy to produce a large set of measured Sm i transition probabilities. (paper)

  15. Radiative lifetimes of neutral gadolinium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Hartog, E A; Bilty, K A; Lawler, J E

    2011-01-01

    The current work is part of an ongoing study of radiative properties of rare earth neutral atoms motivated by research needs in several disparate fields including astrophysics, laser chemistry and lighting technology. Time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence on a slow atomic beam has been used to measure radiative lifetimes, accurate to ±5%, for 136 levels of neutral gadolinium. Of the 136 levels, 6 are odd parity ranging in energy from 32 929 to 36 654 cm -1 , and the remaining 130 are even parity ranging from 17 750 to 34 175 cm -1 . This set of Gd i lifetimes represents a significant extension to the available published data, with 93 of the 136 level lifetimes measured for the first time. These lifetimes will provide the absolute normalization for a large set of measured Gd i transition probabilities.

  16. Deconvolution of Positrons' Lifetime spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calderin Hidalgo, L.; Ortega Villafuerte, Y.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we explain the iterative method previously develop for the deconvolution of Doppler broadening spectra using the mathematical optimization theory. Also, we start the adaptation and application of this method to the deconvolution of positrons' lifetime annihilation spectra

  17. Cost model relationships between textile manufacturing processes and design details for transport fuselage elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metschan, Stephen L.; Wilden, Kurtis S.; Sharpless, Garrett C.; Andelman, Rich M.

    1993-01-01

    Textile manufacturing processes offer potential cost and weight advantages over traditional composite materials and processes for transport fuselage elements. In the current study, design cost modeling relationships between textile processes and element design details were developed. Such relationships are expected to help future aircraft designers to make timely decisions on the effect of design details and overall configurations on textile fabrication costs. The fundamental advantage of a design cost model is to insure that the element design is cost effective for the intended process. Trade studies on the effects of processing parameters also help to optimize the manufacturing steps for a particular structural element. Two methods of analyzing design detail/process cost relationships developed for the design cost model were pursued in the current study. The first makes use of existing databases and alternative cost modeling methods (e.g. detailed estimating). The second compares design cost model predictions with data collected during the fabrication of seven foot circumferential frames for ATCAS crown test panels. The process used in this case involves 2D dry braiding and resin transfer molding of curved 'J' cross section frame members having design details characteristic of the baseline ATCAS crown design.

  18. Reliability-cost models for the power switching devices of wind power converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    In order to satisfy the growing reliability requirements for the wind power converters with more cost-effective solution, the target of this paper is to establish a new reliability-cost model which can connect the relationship between reliability performances and corresponding semiconductor cost...... temperature mean value Tm and fluctuation amplitude ΔTj of power devices, are presented. With the proposed reliability-cost model, it is possible to enable future reliability-oriented design of the power switching devices for wind power converters, and also an evaluation benchmark for different wind power...

  19. X-1 to X-Wings: Developing a Parametric Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Steve; McAtee, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    In todays cost-constrained environment, NASA needs an X-Plane database and parametric cost model that can quickly provide rough order of magnitude predictions of cost from initial concept to first fight of potential X-Plane aircraft. This paper takes a look at the steps taken in developing such a model and reports the results. The challenges encountered in the collection of historical data and recommendations for future database management are discussed. A step-by-step discussion of the development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) is then covered.

  20. A study on effects of cost-of-equity models on cost-of-capital and capital structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Arabzadeh

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Most financial managers believe that there are different factors hindering decision-making about the capital structure of a company. This hindrance is so that, in some financial management literatures capital structure is called the mystery of capital. Financial managers widely believe that financial leverage enjoys a noticeable status in managerial decision making as well as management of the framework of balance sheet. The primary purpose of this research is to present applications of equity modules and to study effective factors on such models on Tehran stock exchange. The study covers data over a period of five years from 2001 to 2005. The study analyzes and tests relevant data to firm’s debt ratio and corporate size as effective factors on cost-of-equity. The preliminary findings indicate that contrary to the commonly held belief in financial management theorems, debts ratio has the least effect on cost-of-equity. Nevertheless, the study suggests that the variant of company’s size has a meaningful relationship with cost-of-equity. To calculate cost-of-equity, CAPM, Gordon and return ratio methods are used. Findings show that CAPM has more validity compared with other varieties. On the other hand, the results indicate that there is a 95-percent probability proving that liquidity has a significant negative effect on financial leverage.

  1. Reducing the computational cost of automatic calibration through model preemption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Tolson, Bryan A.; Matott, L. Shawn; Thomson, Neil R.; Maclean, Angela; Seglenieks, Frank R.

    2010-11-01

    Computational budget is frequently a limiting factor in both uncertainty-based (e.g., through generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE)) and optimization-based (e.g., through least squares minimization) calibration of computationally intensive environmental simulation models. This study introduces and formalizes the concept of simulation model preemption during automatic calibration. The proposed "model preemption" method terminates a simulation model early to save computational budget if it is recognized through intermediate simulation model results that a given solution (model parameter set) is so poor that it will not benefit the search strategy. The methodology proposed here is referred to as deterministic model preemption because it leads to exactly the same calibration result as when deterministic preemption is not applied. As such, deterministic preemption-enabled calibration algorithms which make no approximations to the mathematical simulation model are a simple alternative to the increasingly common and more complex approach of metamodeling for computationally constrained model calibration. Despite its simplicity, the deterministic model preemption concept is a promising concept that has yet to be formalized in the environmental simulation model automatic calibration literature. The model preemption concept can be applied to a subset of uncertainty-based and optimization-based automatic calibration strategies using a variety of different objective functions. Results across multiple calibration case studies demonstrate actual preemption computational savings ranging from 14% to 49%, 34% to 59%, and 52% to 96% for the dynamically dimensioned search, particle swarm optimization, and GLUE automatic calibration methods, respectively.

  2. A drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riewpaiboon, Arthorn; Piyauthakit, Piyanuch; Srijariya, Witsanuchai; Chaikledkaew, Usa

    2008-01-01

    This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at a regional hospital in Thailand. The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004. Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36). The fitted drug cost model had an adjusted R (2) of 0.449. The positive significant predictor variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over 30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of accident during 18:00-24:00 o'clock, and motorcycle comparing to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on the forecasted values of statistically significant (pcost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost, predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43% higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach. The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The application of a predicted average cost model could result in a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic approach.

  3. A theoretical cost optimization model of reused flowback distribution network of regional shale gas development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Huajiao; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Jiang, Meng

    2017-01-01

    The logistical issues surrounding the timing and transport of flowback generated by each shale gas well to the next is a big challenge. Due to more and more flowback being stored temporarily near the shale gas well and reused in the shale gas development, both transportation cost and storage cost are the heavy burden for the developers. This research proposed a theoretical cost optimization model to get the optimal flowback distribution solution for regional multi shale gas wells in a holistic perspective. Then, we used some empirical data of Marcellus Shale to do the empirical study. In addition, we compared the optimal flowback distribution solution by considering both the transportation cost and storage cost with the flowback distribution solution which only minimized the transportation cost or only minimized the storage cost. - Highlights: • A theoretical cost optimization model to get optimal flowback distribution solution. • An empirical study using the shale gas data in Bradford County of Marcellus Shale. • Visualization of optimal flowback distribution solutions under different scenarios. • Transportation cost is a more important factor for reducing the cost. • Help the developers to cut the storage and transportation cost of reusing flowback.

  4. Designing an activity-based costing model for a non-admitted prisoner healthcare setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Xiao; Moore, Elizabeth; McNamara, Martin

    2013-09-01

    To design and deliver an activity-based costing model within a non-admitted prisoner healthcare setting. Key phases from the NSW Health clinical redesign methodology were utilised: diagnostic, solution design and implementation. The diagnostic phase utilised a range of strategies to identify issues requiring attention in the development of the costing model. The solution design phase conceptualised distinct 'building blocks' of activity and cost based on the speciality of clinicians providing care. These building blocks enabled the classification of activity and comparisons of costs between similar facilities. The implementation phase validated the model. The project generated an activity-based costing model based on actual activity performed, gained acceptability among clinicians and managers, and provided the basis for ongoing efficiency and benchmarking efforts.

  5. Technical cost modelling for a novel semi-solid metal (SSM) casting processes for automotive component manufacturing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tlale, NS

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available modelling and was compared with the cost of two competing technologies, forging and die casting. The cost model was developed in a spreadsheet using engineering models, data from literature and information provided by process experts. Estimated engineering...

  6. Cost Assessment of Three Power Decoupling Methods in a Single-phase Power Converter with a Reliability-oriented Design Procedure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haoran; Wang, Huai; Zhu, Guorong

    2016-01-01

    methods and the classical passive DC-link design method are evaluated from the reliability and cost perspective. The reliability-oriented design procedure is applied to size the chip area of active switching devices and the passive components to fulfill a specific lifetime target. Component cost models...... are applied to obtain the overall cost of each DC-link design methods. The cost comparisons are performed with a lifetime target of 10 years and 35 years. It reveals that different conclusions can be drawn with different lifetime targets in terms of cost-effectiveness.......-Caps qualitatively, making great effort to diverting the instantaneous pulsation power into extra reliable storage components. However, it is still an open question, which method is the most cost-effective one for a specific application with a given lifetime requirement. In this paper, two of the representative APD...

  7. A model to estimate the cost effectiveness of the indoorenvironment improvements in office work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

    2004-06-01

    Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

  8. Lifetime Analysis of Rubber Gasket Composed of Methyl Vinyl Silicone Rubber with Low-Temperature Resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Doo Kwon

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Most machines and instruments constantly require elastomeric materials like rubber for the purposes of shock absorption, noise attenuation, and sealing. The material properties and accurate lifetime prediction of rubber are closely related to the quality of machines, especially their durability and reliability. The properties of rubber-like elastomers are influenced by ambient conditions, such as temperature, environment, and mechanical load. Moreover, the initial properties of rubber gaskets must be sustained under working conditions to satisfy their required function. Because of its technical merits, as well as its low cost, the highly accelerated life test (HALT is used by many researchers to predict the long-term lifetime of rubber materials. Methyl vinyl silicone rubber (VMQ has recently been adopted to improve the lifetime of automobile radiator gaskets. A four-parameter method of determining the recovery ability of the gaskets was recently published, and two revised methods of obtaining the recovery were proposed for polyacrylate (ACM rubber. The recovery rate curves for VMQ were acquired using the successive zooming genetic algorithm (SZGA. The gasket lifetime for the target recovery (60% of a compressed gasket was computed somewhat differently depending on the selected regression model.

  9. Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

    OpenAIRE

    Netto, Fernando Antonio Campelo Spencer; Sommer, Camila Garcia; Constantino, Michael de Mello; Cardoso, Michel; Cipriani, Raphael Flávio Fachini; Pereira, Renan Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the par...

  10. Air Force Reusable Booster System A Quick-look, Design Focused Modeling and Cost Analysis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Presents work supporting the Air force Reusable Booster System (RBS) - A Cost Study with Goals as follows: Support US launch systems decision makers, esp. in regards to the research, technology and demonstration investments required for reusable systems to succeed. Encourage operable directions in Reusable Booster / Launch Vehicle Systems technology choices, system design and product and process developments. Perform a quick-look cost study, while developing a cost model for more refined future analysis.

  11. Extending the Lifetime of Sensor Networks through Adaptive Reclustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluigi Ferrari

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the lifetime of clustered sensor networks with decentralized binary detection under a physical layer quality-of-service (QoS constraint, given by the maximum tolerable probability of decision error at the access point (AP. In order to properly model the network behavior, we consider four different distributions (exponential, uniform, Rayleigh, and lognormal for the lifetime of a single sensor. We show the benefits, in terms of longer network lifetime, of adaptive reclustering. We also derive an analytical framework for the computation of the network lifetime and the penalty, in terms of time delay and energy consumption, brought by adaptive reclustering. On the other hand, absence of reclustering leads to a shorter network lifetime, and we show the impact of various clustering configurations under different QoS conditions. Our results show that the organization of sensors in a few big clusters is the winning strategy to maximize the network lifetime. Moreover, the observation of the phenomenon should be frequent in order to limit the penalties associated with the reclustering procedure. We also apply the developed framework to analyze the energy consumption associated with the proposed reclustering protocol, obtaining results in good agreement with the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks. Finally, we present simulation results on the lifetime of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks, which enrich the proposed analytical framework and show that typical networking performance metrics (such as throughput and delay are influenced by the sensor network lifetime.

  12. Extending the Lifetime of Sensor Networks through Adaptive Reclustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferrari Gianluigi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the lifetime of clustered sensor networks with decentralized binary detection under a physical layer quality-of-service (QoS constraint, given by the maximum tolerable probability of decision error at the access point (AP. In order to properly model the network behavior, we consider four different distributions (exponential, uniform, Rayleigh, and lognormal for the lifetime of a single sensor. We show the benefits, in terms of longer network lifetime, of adaptive reclustering. We also derive an analytical framework for the computation of the network lifetime and the penalty, in terms of time delay and energy consumption, brought by adaptive reclustering. On the other hand, absence of reclustering leads to a shorter network lifetime, and we show the impact of various clustering configurations under different QoS conditions. Our results show that the organization of sensors in a few big clusters is the winning strategy to maximize the network lifetime. Moreover, the observation of the phenomenon should be frequent in order to limit the penalties associated with the reclustering procedure. We also apply the developed framework to analyze the energy consumption associated with the proposed reclustering protocol, obtaining results in good agreement with the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks. Finally, we present simulation results on the lifetime of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks, which enrich the proposed analytical framework and show that typical networking performance metrics (such as throughput and delay are influenced by the sensor network lifetime.

  13. Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

    2017-12-01

    After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

  14. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  15. Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which

  16. Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Afonso

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure.  Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the

  17. Computational Models of Laryngeal Aerodynamics: Potentials and Numerical Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Hossein; Kniesburges, Stefan; Kaltenbacher, Manfred; Schützenberger, Anne; Döllinger, Michael

    2018-02-07

    Human phonation is based on the interaction between tracheal airflow and laryngeal dynamics. This fluid-structure interaction is based on the energy exchange between airflow and vocal folds. Major challenges in analyzing the phonatory process in-vivo are the small dimensions and the poor accessibility of the region of interest. For improved analysis of the phonatory process, numerical simulations of the airflow and the vocal fold dynamics have been suggested. Even though most of the models reproduced the phonatory process fairly well, development of comprehensive larynx models is still a subject of research. In the context of clinical application, physiological accuracy and computational model efficiency are of great interest. In this study, a simple numerical larynx model is introduced that incorporates the laryngeal fluid flow. It is based on a synthetic experimental model with silicone vocal folds. The degree of realism was successively increased in separate computational models and each model was simulated for 10 oscillation cycles. Results show that relevant features of the laryngeal flow field, such as glottal jet deflection, develop even when applying rather simple static models with oscillating flow rates. Including further phonatory components such as vocal fold motion, mucosal wave propagation, and ventricular folds, the simulations show phonatory key features like intraglottal flow separation and increased flow rate in presence of ventricular folds. The simulation time on 100 CPU cores ranged between 25 and 290 hours, currently restricting clinical application of these models. Nevertheless, results show high potential of numerical simulations for better understanding of phonatory process. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Reference model for measuring and analysing costs – particularly in business informatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milos Maryska

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to problems of management of cost efficiency of business informatics with Business Intelligence (BI assistance. It defines basic critical points that must be taken into account during creating models for management of cost efficiency of business informatics. It proposes new model for management of cost efficiency, this model include also definitions of dimensions and indicators for measuring of this cost efficiency. The model takes into account requirements that pose claim on management of cost efficiency necessitated by accounting and requirements from consultancy with managers of companies. It also takes into account requirement of methodologies for management business informatics and methods and processes for evaluating and measuring business informatics. This methodologies, methods and processes are transformed into procedures that are appropriate for measuring and evaluating business informatics. This model is intended for monitoring of actual situation, evolution cost efficiency of business informatics and it can be used for making decisions about convenience of outsourcing of business informatics. There are presented some examples from presentation level of mentioned model for measuring of cost efficiency of business informatics. This presentation level is in the form of tables and also in the form of dashboards.

  19. Occupational risk and lifetime exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapp, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Any lowering of annual radiation limits for occupational exposure should be based on industry experience with lifetime doses and not on a worst case career exposure of 47 years. Two decades of experience show a lifetime accumulation of less than 1.5 rem for workers with measurable exposure. This is 5% of the normal lifetime exposure of Americans to natural and medical radiation. Any epidemiology of the US nuclear power workforce's two decade long exposure would have to focus on excess leukemia. Application of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer mortality shows that too few leukemias would be expressed to permit a feasible epidemiology. Ionizing radiation appears to be a mild carcinogen as compared to physical and chemical agents presented in the occupational environment. A realistic factor in determining any change in occupational exposure limits for ionizing radiation should take into account the past performance of the licensee and potential health effects applicable to the workplace. Specifically, the lifetime exposure data for workers at nuclear power plants and naval shipyards should be considered. The nuclear industry and the US Navy have detailed data on the annual exposure of workers with a combined collective exposure approaching 1 million worker-rem. The lifetime dose for naval personnel and shipyard workers averages 1.1 rem J 1990. Shipyard workers have an annual dose of 0.28 rem per work-year and a mean exposure time of 4.4 years. The data apply to workers with measurable dose

  20. Landfill Gas Energy Cost Model Version 3.0 (LFGcost-Web V3.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help stakeholders estimate the costs of a landfill gas (LFG) energy project, in 2002, LMOP developed a cost tool (LFGcost). Since then, LMOP has routinely updated the tool to reflect changes in the LFG energy industry. Initially the model was designed for EPA to assist landfil...

  1. Modelling the Cost Performance of a Given Logistics Network Operating Under Regular and Irregular Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janic, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an analytical model for the assessment of the cost performance of a given logistics network operating under regular and irregular (disruptive) conditions. In addition, the paper aims to carry out a sensitivity analysis of this cost with respect to changes of the most influencing

  2. Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Tabeau, A.A.; Stehfest, E.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving

  3. Towards a Model of the Costs of Security

    OpenAIRE

    Larochelle, David; Rosasco, Nicholas

    2003-01-01

    We present a simple information security model to determine why, historically, the level of security has not increased despite numerous technical advances. In our model, the software design process involves trade-offs between security and functionality. Developers choose points in the design space corresponding to certain levels of security and functionality. If development resources, such as number of developers, time for completion, etc., are fixed, there is an implicit trade-off between se...

  4. An Exploratory Study of Cost Engineering in Axiomatic Design: Creation of the Cost Model Based on an FR-DP Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taesik; Jeziorek, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Large complex projects cost large sums of money throughout their life cycle for a variety of reasons and causes. For such large programs, the credible estimation of the project cost, a quick assessment of the cost of making changes, and the management of the project budget with effective cost reduction determine the viability of the project. Cost engineering that deals with these issues requires a rigorous method and systematic processes. This paper introduces a logical framework to a&e effective cost engineering. The framework is built upon Axiomatic Design process. The structure in the Axiomatic Design process provides a good foundation to closely tie engineering design and cost information together. The cost framework presented in this paper is a systematic link between the functional domain (FRs), physical domain (DPs), cost domain (CUs), and a task/process-based model. The FR-DP map relates a system s functional requirements to design solutions across all levels and branches of the decomposition hierarchy. DPs are mapped into CUs, which provides a means to estimate the cost of design solutions - DPs - from the cost of the physical entities in the system - CUs. The task/process model describes the iterative process ot-developing each of the CUs, and is used to estimate the cost of CUs. By linking the four domains, this framework provides a superior traceability from requirements to cost information.

  5. A cost-effectiveness analysis of long-term intermittent catheterisation with hydrophilic and uncoated catheters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clark, J F; Mealing, S J; Scott, D A

    2016-01-01

    -old SCI patient with chronic urinary retention will live an additional 1.4 years if using HC catheters compared with UC catheters, at an incremental cost of £2100. Moreover, the lifetime number of UTI events will be reduced by 16%. All best- and worst-case estimates were within the UK threshold of being......STUDY DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysisObjective:To establish a model to investigate the cost effectiveness for people with spinal cord injury (SCI), from a lifetime perspective, for the usage of two different single-use catheter designs: hydrophilic-coated (HC) and uncoated (UC). The model...... includes the long-term sequelae of impaired renal function and urinary tract infection (UTI). SETTING: Analysis based on a UK perspective. METHODS: A probabilistic Markov decision model was constructed, to compare lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years, taking renal and UTI health states...

  6. Cost calculation model concerning small-scale production of chips and split firewood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryynaenen, S.; Naett, H.; Valkonen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The TTS-Institute's Forestry Department has developed a computer-based cost calculation model for the production of wood chips and split firewood. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY -research programme. The said calculation model eases and speeds up the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and costs bases of different harvesting chains influences the unit costs of the system as a whole. The undertaking was composed of the following parts: clarification and modification of productivity bases for application in the model as mathematical models, clarification of machine and device costs bases, designing of the structure and functions of the calculation model, construction and testing of the model's 0-version, model calculations concerning typical chains, review of calculation bases, and charting of development needs focusing on the model. The calculation model was developed to serve research needs, but with further development it could be useful as a tool in forestry and agricultural extension work, related schools and colleges, and in the hands of firewood producers. (author)

  7. Cost-effectiveness of a low-calorie diet and orlistat for obese persons: modeling long-term health gains through prevention of obesity-related chronic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter H M; van den Berg, Matthijs; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; Vijgen, Sylvia M C; Engelfriet, Peter M

    2008-12-01

    Our study estimated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacologic treatment of obesity in combination with a low-calorie diet in The Netherlands. Costs and effects of a low-calorie diet-only intervention and of a low-calorie diet in combination with 1 year of orlistat were compared to no treatment. The RIVM Chronic Disease Model was used to project the differences in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime health-care costs because of the effects of the interventions on body mass index (BMI) status. This was done by linking BMI status to the occurrence of obesity-related diseases and by relating quality of life to disease status. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to study the effect of uncertainty in the model parameters. In univariate sensitivity analysis, we assessed how sensitive the results were to several key assumptions. Incremental costs per QALY gained were Euro 17,900 for the low-calorie diet-only intervention compared to no intervention and Euro 58,800 for the low-calorie diet + orlistat compared to the low-calorie diet only. Assuming a direct relation between BMI and quality of life, these ratios decreased to Euro 6000 per QALY gained and Euro 24,100 per QALY gained. Costs per QALY gained were also sensitive to assumptions about long-term weight loss maintenance. Cost-effectiveness ratios of interventions aiming at weight reduction depend strongly on assumptions regarding the relation between BMI and quality of life. We recommend that a low-calorie diet should be the first option for policymakers in combating obesity.

  8. Radiative lifetimes of neutral neodymium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Hartog, E A; Fittante, A J; Lawler, J E

    2011-01-01

    This work is part of an on-going study of radiative properties of rare earth neutral atoms. This work is motivated by research needs in several disparate fields including astrophysics and lighting technology. Radiative lifetimes of 100 levels of neutral neodymium are measured using the technique of time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence on a slow atomic beam. Of the 100 levels, 3 are even parity ranging in energy from 25 746 to 26 835 cm -1 , and the remaining 97 are odd parity ranging from 17 787 to 27 786 cm -1 . This set of Nd i lifetimes represents a significant extension to the available published data, with 51 of the 100 level lifetimes measured for the first time. These data, which are accurate to ±5%, provide the absolute normalization for a large set of measured Nd i transition probabilities.

  9. PACCOM: A nuclear waste packaging facility cost model: Draft technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dippold, D.G.; Tzemos, S.; Smith, D.J.

    1985-05-01

    PACCOM is a computerized, parametric model used to estimate the capital, operating, and decommissioning costs of a variety of nuclear waste packaging facility configurations. The model is based upon a modular waste packaging facility concept from which functional components of the overall facility have been identified and their design and costs related to various parameters such as waste type, waste throughput, and the number of operational shifts employed. The model may be used to either estimate the cost of a particular waste packaging facility configuration or to explore the cost tradeoff between plant capital and labor. That is, one may use the model to search for the particular facility sizes and associated cost which when coupled with a particular number of shifts, and thus staffing level, leads to the lowest overall total cost. The functional components which the model considers include hot cells and their supporting facilities, transportation, cask handling facilities, transuranic waste handling facilities, and administrative facilities such as warehouses, security buildings, maintenance buildings, etc. The cost of each of these functional components is related either directly or indirectly to the various independent design parameters. Staffing by shift is reported into direct and indirect support labor. These staffing levels are in turn related to the waste type, waste throughput, etc. 2 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs

  10. A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzion Barlev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

  11. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  12. Using a Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Model To Determine the Actual Cost of Services Provided by a Transgenic Core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerwin, Philip M; Norinsky, Rada M; Tolwani, Ravi J

    2018-03-01

    Laboratory animal programs and core laboratories often set service rates based on cost estimates. However, actual costs may be unknown, and service rates may not reflect the actual cost of services. Accurately evaluating the actual costs of services can be challenging and time-consuming. We used a time-driven activity-based costing (ABC) model to determine the cost of services provided by a resource laboratory at our institution. The time-driven approach is a more efficient approach to calculating costs than using a traditional ABC model. We calculated only 2 parameters: the time required to perform an activity and the unit cost of the activity based on employee cost. This method allowed us to rapidly and accurately calculate the actual cost of services provided, including microinjection of a DNA construct, microinjection of embryonic stem cells, embryo transfer, and in vitro fertilization. We successfully implemented a time-driven ABC model to evaluate the cost of these services and the capacity of labor used to deliver them. We determined how actual costs compared with current service rates. In addition, we determined that the labor supplied to conduct all services (10,645 min/wk) exceeded the practical labor capacity (8400 min/wk), indicating that the laboratory team was highly efficient and that additional labor capacity was needed to prevent overloading of the current team. Importantly, this time-driven ABC approach allowed us to establish a baseline model that can easily be updated to reflect operational changes or changes in labor costs. We demonstrated that a time-driven ABC model is a powerful management tool that can be applied to other core facilities as well as to entire animal programs, providing valuable information that can be used to set rates based on the actual cost of services and to improve operating efficiency.

  13. A simulation model of hospital management based on cost accounting analysis according to disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Koji; Sato, Junzo; Guo, Jinqiu; Takada, Akira; Yoshihara, Hiroyuki

    2004-12-01

    Since a little before 2000, hospital cost accounting has been increasingly performed at Japanese national university hospitals. At Kumamoto University Hospital, for instance, departmental costs have been analyzed since 2000. And, since 2003, the cost balance has been obtained according to certain diseases for the preparation of Diagnosis-Related Groups and Prospective Payment System. On the basis of these experiences, we have constructed a simulation model of hospital management. This program has worked correctly at repeated trials and with satisfactory speed. Although there has been room for improvement of detailed accounts and cost accounting engine, the basic model has proved satisfactory. We have constructed a hospital management model based on the financial data of an existing hospital. We will later improve this program from the viewpoint of construction and using more various data of hospital management. A prospective outlook may be obtained for the practical application of this hospital management model.

  14. Long-term fiscal implications of subsidizing in-vitro fertilization in Sweden: a lifetime tax perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Anders; Connolly, Mark; Gallo, Federico; Hägglund, Leif

    2008-11-01

    In Sweden approximately 3% of annual births are conceived using assisted reproductive technologies (ART). In light of increasing use of ART in Sweden we estimate the lifetime future tax revenues of a child conceived by in-vitro fertilization (IVF) to establish whether public subsidy of IVF represents sound fiscal policy. A modified generational accounting model was developed to calculate the net present value (NPV) of average investment costs required to achieve an IVF-conceived child. The model simulates direct lifetime financial interactions between the child and the Swedish government. Within the model we assume average direct financial transfers are made to the individual (eg, child allowance, education, health care, pension, etc). In return, the individual transfers resources to the government through taxation based on anticipated average earnings. The difference between direct transfers and gross taxes paid equals the net-tax contribution. Individual tax contributions were held constant in the model. Based on average life-expectancy an individual born in 2005 will pay an undiscounted 32.5 million SEK in taxes to the Swedish government and receive 20.9 million SEK in direct financial transfers over their lifetime. When these figures are discounted and IVF costs are included in the analysis we obtain a lifetime NPV of 254,000 SEK with a break-even point at age 41 (the age of achieving a positive NPV) for an individual conceived through IVF. Based on results presented here we conclude that State-funded IVF in Sweden does not negatively impact the long run fiscal budget. Conversely, over an average lifetime an IVF offspring returns a positive net value to the State.

  15. Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

    CERN Document Server

    Rahman, Anisur

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

  16. Sharing architecture knowledge through models : quality and cost

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liang, Peng; Jansen, Anton; Avgeriou, Paris

    In the field of software architecture, there has been a paradigm shift from describing structural information, such as components and connectors, to documenting architectural knowledge (AK), Such as design decisions and rationale. To this end, a series of industrial and academic domain models have

  17. process setting models for the minimization of costs defectives

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    2. Optimal Setting Process Models. 2.1 Optimal setting of process mean in the case of one-sided limit. In filling operation, the process average net weight must be set. The standards prescribe the minimum weight which is printed on the packet. This set of quality control problems has one-sided limit (the minimum net weight).

  18. Hedonic travel cost and random utility models of recreation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pendleton, L. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mendelsohn, R.; Davis, E.W. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1998-07-09

    Micro-economic theory began as an attempt to describe, predict and value the demand and supply of consumption goods. Quality was largely ignored at first, but economists have started to address quality within the theory of demand and specifically the question of site quality, which is an important component of land management. This paper demonstrates that hedonic and random utility models emanate from the same utility theoretical foundation, although they make different estimation assumptions. Using a theoretically consistent comparison, both approaches are applied to examine the quality of wilderness areas in the Southeastern US. Data were collected on 4778 visits to 46 trails in 20 different forest areas near the Smoky Mountains. Visitor data came from permits and an independent survey. The authors limited the data set to visitors from within 300 miles of the North Carolina and Tennessee border in order to focus the analysis on single purpose trips. When consistently applied, both models lead to results with similar signs but different magnitudes. Because the two models are equally valid, recreation studies should continue to use both models to value site quality. Further, practitioners should be careful not to make simplifying a priori assumptions which limit the effectiveness of both techniques.

  19. Designing of fuzzy expert heuristic models with cost management ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    MCDM); supplier selection. ... A typical supplier A4 has been awarded the most suitable supplier with 0.386 composite relative weights of AHP, relative closeness to ideal solution 0.7154 and normalized score index 0.219 FIS model using ...

  20. Designing of fuzzy expert heuristic models with cost management ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In genuine industrial case, problems are inescapable and pose enormous challenges to incorporate accurate sustainability factors into supplier selection. In this present study, three different primarily based multicriteria decision making fuzzy models have been compared with their deterministic version so as to resolve fuzzy ...

  1. Considerations on a Cost Model for High-Field Dipole Arc Magnets for FCC

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2078700; Durante, Maria; Lorin, Clement; Martinez, Teresa; Ruuskanen, Janne; Salmi, Tiina; Sorbi, Massimo; Tommasini, Davide; Toral, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    In the frame of the European Circular Collider (EuroCirCol), a conceptual design study for a post-Large Hadron Collider (LHC) research infrastructure based on an energy-frontier 100 TeV circular hadron collider [1]–[3], a cost model for the high-field dipole arc magnets is being developed. The aim of the cost model in the initial design phase is to provide the basis for sound strategic decisions towards cost effective designs, in particular: (A) the technological choice of superconducting material and its cost, (B) the target performance of Nb3Sn superconductor, (C) the choice of operating temperature (D) the relevant design margins and their importance for cost, (E) the nature and extent of grading, and (F) the aperture’s influence on cost. Within the EuroCirCol study three design options for the high field dipole arc magnets are under study: cos − θ [4], block [5], and common-coil [6]. Here, in the advanced design phase, a cost model helps to (1) identify the cost drivers and feed-back this informati...

  2. Congenital toxoplasmosis in Austria: Prenatal screening for prevention is cost-saving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prusa, Andrea-Romana; Kasper, David C; Sawers, Larry; Walter, Evelyn; Hayde, Michael; Stillwaggon, Eileen

    2017-07-01

    Primary infection of Toxoplasma gondii during pregnancy can be transmitted to the unborn child and may have serious consequences, including retinochoroiditis, hydrocephaly, cerebral calcifications, encephalitis, splenomegaly, hearing loss, blindness, and death. Austria, a country with moderate seroprevalence, instituted mandatory prenatal screening for toxoplasma infection to minimize the effects of congenital transmission. This work compares the societal costs of congenital toxoplasmosis under the Austrian national prenatal screening program with the societal costs that would have occurred in a No-Screening scenario. We retrospectively investigated data from the Austrian Toxoplasmosis Register for birth cohorts from 1992 to 2008, including pediatric long-term follow-up until May 2013. We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare lifetime societal costs of prenatal screening with lifetime societal costs estimated in a No-Screening scenario. We included costs of treatment, lifetime care, accommodation of injuries, loss of life, and lost earnings that would have occurred in a No-Screening scenario and compared them with the actual costs of screening, treatment, lifetime care, accommodation, loss of life, and lost earnings. We replicated that analysis excluding loss of life and lost earnings to estimate the budgetary impact alone. Our model calculated total lifetime costs of €103 per birth under prenatal screening as carried out in Austria, saving €323 per birth compared with No-Screening. Without screening and treatment, lifetime societal costs for all affected children would have been €35 million per year; the implementation costs of the Austrian program are less than €2 million per year. Calculating only the budgetary impact, the national program was still cost-saving by more than €15 million per year and saved €258 million in 17 years. Cost savings under a national program of prenatal screening for toxoplasma infection and treatment are

  3. Modeling the cost-effectiveness of health care systems for alcohol use disorders: how implementation of eHealth interventions improves cost-effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, Filip; Lokkerbol, Joran; Riper, Heleen; Majo, Maria Cristina; Boon, Brigitte; Blankers, Matthijs

    2011-01-01

    Informing policy decisions about the cost-effectiveness of health care systems (ie, packages of clinical interventions) is probably best done using a modeling approach. To this end, an alcohol model (ALCMOD) was developed. The aim of ALCMOD is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of competing health

  4. Assessment of RFID Investment in the Military Logistics Systems Through The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ozdemir, Ahmet; Bayrak, Mustafa

    2015-01-01

    Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is an emerging technology that has been recently used in numerous business and public fields. Most military applications of RFID have focused on logistics systems. Since RFID investment requires high initial cost and its benefits are hard to see in the short term, it needs an appropriate investment decision model. The purpose of this research is to propose a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model for RFID integration into the Military Logistics System (MLS). The stu...

  5. Assessment of RFID investment in the military logistics systems through the Cost of Ownership Model (COO)

    OpenAIRE

    Ozdemir, Ahmet; Bayrak, Mustafa Ali

    2010-01-01

    MBA Professional Report Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is an emerging technology that has been recently used in numerous business and public fields. Most military applications of RFID have focused on logistics systems. Since RFID investment requires high initial cost and its benefits are hard to see in the short term, it needs an appropriate investment decision model. The purpose of this research is to propose a Cost of Ownership (COO) model for RFID integration into the Military ...

  6. A Cost Estimation Model for Commander Naval Air Forces Paicifc's TACAIR F/A-18S Aviation Depot Level Repair Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Duma, David

    2001-01-01

    .... The first section discusses the methodology used to create a cost estimation model. The second and third sections provide the results of the model's outcomes and compares and analyzes those results to the actual results...

  7. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  8. Cost-effective degradation test plan for a nonlinear random-coefficients model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong-Joon; Bae, Suk Joo

    2013-01-01

    The determination of requisite sample size and the inspection schedule considering both testing cost and accuracy has been an important issue in the degradation test. This paper proposes a cost-effective degradation test plan in the context of a nonlinear random-coefficients model, while meeting some precision constraints for failure-time distribution. We introduce a precision measure to quantify the information losses incurred by reducing testing resources. The precision measure is incorporated into time-varying cost functions to reflect real circumstances. We apply a hybrid genetic algorithm to general cost optimization problem with reasonable constraints on the level of testing precision in order to determine a cost-effective inspection scheme. The proposed method is applied to the degradation data of plasma display panels (PDPs) following a bi-exponential degradation model. Finally, sensitivity analysis via simulation is provided to evaluate the robustness of the proposed degradation test plan.

  9. Metallized Film Capacitor Lifetime Evaluation and Failure Mode Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gallay, R.

    2015-06-15

    One of the main concerns for power electronic engineers regarding capacitors is to predict their remaining lifetime in order to anticipate costly failures or system unavailability. This may be achieved using a Weibull statistical law combined with acceleration factors for the temperature, the voltage, and the humidity. This paper discusses the different capacitor failure modes and their effects and consequences.

  10. Efficient redistribution of lifetime income through welfare accounts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bovenberg, A.L.; Sorensen, P.B.; Hansen, M.I.

    2012-01-01

    Compared with a conventional tax–transfer system, individual welfare accounts can redistribute lifetime incomes at a lower efficiency cost. These welfare accounts employ mandatory contributions rather than taxes to finance social transfers to people of working age. We describe a design for welfare

  11. Endogenous fertility and development traps with endogenous lifetime

    OpenAIRE

    Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca

    2010-01-01

    We extend the literature on endogenous lifetime and economic growth by Chakraborty (2004) and Bunzel and Qiao (2005) to endogenous fertility. We show that development traps due to underinvestments in health cannot appear when fertility is an economic decision variable and the costs of children are represented by a constant fraction of the parents' income used for their upbringing.

  12. Parabolic Trough Collector Cost Update for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurup, Parthiv [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Turchi, Craig S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This report updates the baseline cost for parabolic trough solar fields in the United States within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM, available at no cost at https://sam.nrel.gov/, is a performance and financial model designed to facilitate decision making for people involved in the renewable energy industry. SAM is the primary tool used by NREL and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for estimating the performance and cost of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies and projects. The study performed a bottom-up build and cost estimate for two state-of-the-art parabolic trough designs -- the SkyTrough and the Ultimate Trough. The SkyTrough analysis estimated the potential installed cost for a solar field of 1500 SCAs as $170/m2 +/- $6/m2. The investigation found that SkyTrough installed costs were sensitive to factors such as raw aluminum alloy cost and production volume. For example, in the case of the SkyTrough, the installed cost would rise to nearly $210/m2 if the aluminum alloy cost was $1.70/lb instead of $1.03/lb. Accordingly, one must be aware of fluctuations in the relevant commodities markets to track system cost over time. The estimated installed cost for the Ultimate Trough was only slightly higher at $178/m2, which includes an assembly facility of $11.6 million amortized over the required production volume. Considering the size and overall cost of a 700 SCA Ultimate Trough solar field, two parallel production lines in a fully covered assembly facility, each with the specific torque box, module and mirror jigs, would be justified for a full CSP plant.

  13. Analysing the Costs of Integrated Care: A Case on Model Selection for Chronic Care Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Carreras

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study is to investigate whether the algorithm proposed by Manning and Mullahy, a consolidated health economics procedure, can also be used to estimate individual costs for different groups of healthcare services in the context of integrated care. Methods: A cross-sectional study focused on the population of the Baix Empordà (Catalonia-Spain for the year 2012 (N = 92,498 individuals. A set of individual cost models as a function of sex, age and morbidity burden were adjusted and individual healthcare costs were calculated using a retrospective full-costing system. The individual morbidity burden was inferred using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG patient classification system. Results: Depending on the characteristics of the data, and according to the algorithm criteria, the choice of model was a linear model on the log of costs or a generalized linear model with a log link. We checked for goodness of fit, accuracy, linear structure and heteroscedasticity for the models obtained. Conclusion: The proposed algorithm identified a set of suitable cost models for the distinct groups of services integrated care entails. The individual morbidity burden was found to be indispensable when allocating appropriate resources to targeted individuals.

  14. Artificial Intelligence for Constructing Accurate, Low-Cost Models and

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    models are a virtual representation of a robotic car constructed from the Lego ™ MindStorms ® Robotics Invention System. The baseline vehicle is shown in...sampled using a Lego ® RCX computer coupled with a high accuracy voltage measuring interface from Lego Dacta®. Data were captured using LabVIEW® Software... Lego ® RCX computer coupled with a high accuracy voltage measuring interface from Lego Dacta®. Data were captured using LabVIEW® Software from

  15. Evaluation of Costs for Procuring Reserve Capacity under Deregulated Power System using Multi-Agent Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Satoshi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Eiichi; Hasegawa, Jun

    In this paper, we assume 2 models for securing reserve capacity. One is “Commitment-based Security Model” and the other is “Reserve Market-based Security Model”. In Commitment-based security model, ISO commits procurement of reserve energy to a particular generation company. Meanwhile, in Reserve market-based security model, ISO procures reserve energy through reserve market. The main object of this research is to investigate which model will be preferable for the viewpoint of consumer's cost. To compare these models, two things are considered in this paper. One is bidding behavior of agents which bids to energy market and reserve market. To consider this, Q-Learning of multi-agent model is used. Also, the Unit Commitment (UC) is considered to calculate generation cost. This is to calculate the cost for securing reserve power more precisely.

  16. System Dynamics Modeling of interactive cost factors for small modular reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam Sung; Lee, Keun Dae; Yoon, Suk Ho

    2011-01-01

    As a part of the Study on Economic Efficiency and Marketability of small modular reactors project, we at Nemo partners NEC consulting corporation were studying the various cost factors on small modular reactors (SMRs). To have a better knowledge of the interaction between the cost factors, System Dynamics Modeling has been developed. This model will contribute to our understanding of the interaction on the major factors effecting on the unit cost of SMRs to the SMRs' market share in the market economics as competition

  17. A flexible model for correlated medical costs, with application to medical expenditure panel survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinsong; Liu, Lei; Shih, Ya-Chen T; Zhang, Daowen; Severini, Thomas A

    2016-03-15

    We propose a flexible model for correlated medical cost data with several appealing features. First, the mean function is partially linear. Second, the distributional form for the response is not specified. Third, the covariance structure of correlated medical costs has a semiparametric form. We use extended generalized estimating equations to simultaneously estimate all parameters of interest. B-splines are used to estimate unknown functions, and a modification to Akaike information criterion is proposed for selecting knots in spline bases. We apply the model to correlated medical costs in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey dataset. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of our method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Time-driven activity-based costing: A dynamic value assessment model in pediatric appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

    2017-06-01

    Healthcare reform policies are emphasizing value-based healthcare delivery. We hypothesize that time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) can be used to appraise healthcare interventions in pediatric appendicitis. Triage-based standing delegation orders, surgical advanced practice providers, and a same-day discharge protocol were implemented to target deficiencies identified in our initial TDABC model. Post-intervention process maps for a hospital episode were created using electronic time stamp data for simple appendicitis cases during February to March 2016. Total personnel and consumable costs were determined using TDABC methodology. The post-intervention TDABC model featured 6 phases of care, 33 processes, and 19 personnel types. Our interventions reduced duration and costs in the emergency department (-41min, -$23) and pre-operative floor (-57min, -$18). While post-anesthesia care unit duration and costs increased (+224min, +$41), the same-day discharge protocol eliminated post-operative floor costs (-$306). Our model incorporating all three interventions reduced total direct costs by 11% ($2753.39 to $2447.68) and duration of hospitalization by 51% (1984min to 966min). Time-driven activity-based costing can dynamically model changes in our healthcare delivery as a result of process improvement interventions. It is an effective tool to continuously assess the impact of these interventions on the value of appendicitis care. II, Type of study: Economic Analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Telemonitoring after discharge from hospital with heart failure: cost-effectiveness modelling of alternative service designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Baalbaki, Hassan; Brennan, Alan; Pandor, Abdullah; Stevens, John W; Gomersall, Tim; Wang, Jenny; Bakhai, Ameet; Al-Mohammad, Abdallah; Cleland, John; Cowie, Martin R; Wong, Ruth

    2013-09-18

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of remote monitoring strategies versus usual care for adults recently discharged after a heart failure (HF) exacerbation. Decision analysis modelling of cost-effectiveness using secondary data sources. Acute hospitals in the UK. Patients recently discharged (within 28 days) after a HF exacerbation. Structured telephone support (STS) via human to machine (STS HM) interface, (2) STS via human to human (STS HH) contact and (3) home telemonitoring (TM), compared with (4) usual care. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by each strategy compared to the next most effective alternative and the probability of each strategy being cost-effective at varying willingness to pay per QALY gained. TM was the most cost-effective strategy in the scenario using these base case costs. Compared with usual care, TM had an estimated incr