WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelling lifetime cost

  1. LCP- LIFETIME COST AND PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) Model was developed to assist in the assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) system design options. LCP is a simulation of the performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. LCP provides the user with substantial flexibility in specifying the technical and economic environment of the PV application. User-specified input parameters are available to describe PV system characteristics, site climatic conditions, utility purchase and sellback rate structures, discount and escalation rates, construction timing, and lifetime of the system. Such details as PV array orientation and tilt angle, PV module and balance-of-system performance attributes, and the mode of utility interconnection are user-specified. LCP assumes that the distributed PV system is utility grid interactive without dedicated electrical storage. In combination with a suitable economic model, LCP can provide an estimate of the expected net present worth of a PV system to the owner, as compared to electricity purchased from a utility grid. Similarly, LCP might be used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify those PV system parameters having significant impact on net worth. The user describes the PV system configuration to LCP via the basic electrical components. The module is the smallest entity in the PV system which is modeled. A PV module is defined in the simulation by its short circuit current, which varies over the system lifetime due to degradation and failure. Modules are wired in series to form a branch circuit. Bypass diodes are allowed between modules in the branch circuits. Branch circuits are then connected in parallel to form a bus. A collection of buses is connected in parallel to form an increment to capacity of the system. By choosing the appropriate series-parallel wiring design, the user can specify the current, voltage, and reliability characteristics of the system. LCP simulation of system performance is site

  2. Lifetime costs of cerebral palsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Marie; Michelsen, Susan Ishøy; Flachs, Esben Meulengracht

    2009-01-01

    This study quantified the lifetime costs of cerebral palsy (CP) in a register-based setting. It was the first study outside the US to assess the lifetime costs of CP. The lifetime costs attributable to CP were divided into three categories: health care costs, productivity costs, and social costs....... social care costs and productivity costs associated with CP point to a potential gain from labour market interventions that benefit individuals with CP.......This study quantified the lifetime costs of cerebral palsy (CP) in a register-based setting. It was the first study outside the US to assess the lifetime costs of CP. The lifetime costs attributable to CP were divided into three categories: health care costs, productivity costs, and social costs...... in 2000. The prevalence of CP in eastern Denmark was approximately 1.7 per 1000. Information on productivity and the use of health care was retrieved from registers. The lifetime cost of CP was about euro860 000 for men and about euro800 000 for women. The largest component was social care costs...

  3. Adding smoking to the Fardal model of cost-effectiveness for the life-time treatment of periodontal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fardal, Øystein; Grytten, Jostein; Martin, John; Ellingsen, Stig; Fardal, Patrick; Heasman, Peter; Linden, Gerard J

    2018-05-16

    Little is known about the financial costs that smoking adds to the life-time treatment of periodontal disease. The total life-time cost of periodontal treatment was modelled using data from private periodontal practice. The costs of initial and supportive therapy, re-treatment and tooth replacements (with bridgework or implants) were identified using average dental charges from the American Dental Association survey. Smoking costs at $6 and $10 for 20 cigarettes were compared to the costs of life-time periodontal treatment for stable and unstable compliant patients. Smoking added 8.8% to the financial cost of the life-time cost of periodontal therapy in stable maintenance patients, 40.1% in patients who needed one extra maintenance visit and 71.4% in patients who needed two extra maintenance visits per year in addition to added re-treatment. The cost of smoking far exceeded the cost of periodontal treatment; For patients who smoked 10 to 40 cigarettes per day at the cost of $6 or $10 a pack, the cost of smoking exceeded the cost of life-time periodontal treatment by between 2.7 and 17.9 times. Smoking 40 cigarettes at $10 a packet for 3.4 years would pay for the entire life-time cost of periodontal treatment. Smoking adds considerable extra financial costs to the life-time treatment of periodontal diseases. The cost of smoking itself exceeds the cost of periodontal therapy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 American Academy of Periodontology.

  4. DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  5. The lifetime cost of a magnetic refrigerator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Bahl, Christian R.H.; Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein

    2016-01-01

    The total cost of a 25 W average load magnetic refrigerator using commercial grade Gd is calculated using a numerical model. The price of magnetocaloric material, magnet material and cost of operation are considered, and all influence the total cost. The lowest combined total cost with a device...... lifetime of 15 years is found to be in the range $150-$400 depending on the price of the magnetocaloric and magnet material. The cost of the magnet is largest, followed closely by the cost of operation, while the cost of the magnetocaloric material is almost negligible. For the lowest cost device...... characteristics are based on the performance of a conventional A+++ refrigeration unit. In a rough life time cost comparison between the AMR device and such a unit we find similar costs, the AMR being slightly cheaper, assuming the cost of the magnet can be recuperated at end of life....

  6. The costs of inequality: whole-population modelling study of lifetime inpatient hospital costs in the English National Health Service by level of neighbourhood deprivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Tim; Cookson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background There are substantial socioeconomic inequalities in both life expectancy and healthcare use in England. In this study, we describe how these two sets of inequalities interact by estimating the social gradient in hospital costs across the life course. Methods Hospital episode statistics, population and index of multiple deprivation data were combined at lower-layer super output area level to estimate inpatient hospital costs for 2011/2012 by age, sex and deprivation quintile. Survival curves were estimated for each of the deprivation groups and used to estimate expected annual costs and cumulative lifetime costs. Results A steep social gradient was observed in overall inpatient hospital admissions, with rates ranging from 31 298/100 000 population in the most affluent fifth of areas to 43 385 in the most deprived fifth. This gradient was steeper for emergency than for elective admissions. The total cost associated with this inequality in 2011/2012 was £4.8 billion. A social gradient was also observed in the modelled lifetime costs where the lower life expectancy was not sufficient to outweigh the higher average costs in the more deprived populations. Lifetime costs for women were 14% greater than for men, due to higher costs in the reproductive years and greater life expectancy. Conclusions Socioeconomic inequalities result in increased morbidity and decreased life expectancy. Interventions to reduce inequality and improve health in more deprived neighbourhoods have the potential to save money for health systems not only within years but across peoples’ entire lifetimes, despite increased costs due to longer life expectancies. PMID:27189975

  7. Modeling lifetime costs and health outcomes attributable to secondhand smoke exposure at home among Korean adult women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jiyae; Han, Ah Ram; Choi, Dalwoong; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

    2017-05-17

    The aim of this research is to estimate lifetime costs and health consequences for Korean adult women who were exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) at home. A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime healthcare costs and health outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of Korean women who are 40 years old and were married to current smokers. The Korean epidemiological data were used to reflect the natural history of SHS-exposed and non-exposed women. The direct healthcare costs (in 2014 US dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were annually discounted at 5% to reflect time preference. The time horizon of the analysis was lifetime and the cycle length was 1 year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the absence of SHS exposure, Korean women will live 41.32 years or 34.56 QALYs before discount, which corresponded to 17.29 years or 15.35 QALYs after discount. The SHS-exposed women were predicted to live 37.91 years and 31.08 QALYs before discount and 16.76 years and 14.62 QALYs after discount. The estimated lifetime healthcare cost per woman in the SHS non-exposed group was US$11 214 before the discount and US$2465 after discount. The negative impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes and healthcare costs escalated as the time horizon increased, suggesting that the adverse impact of SHS exposure may have higher impact on the later part of the lifetime. The result was consistent across a wide range of assumptions. Life expectancy might underestimate the impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes, especially if the time horizon of the analysis is not long enough. Early intervention on smoking behaviour could substantially reduce direct healthcare costs and improve quality of life attributable to SHS exposure. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. The total lifetime costs of smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, S.R.; Prescott, E.; Sørensen, T.I.A.

    2004-01-01

    Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy.......Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy....

  9. Modelling lifetime cost consequences of toric compared with standard IOLs in cataract surgery of astigmatic patients in four European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurendeau, C; Lafuma, A; Berdeaux, G

    2009-09-01

    To compare the lifetime costs of freeing astigmatic patients from spectacles after bilateral cataract surgery implanting toric intraocular lenses (IOLs: i.e., Acrysof Toric) versus monofocal IOLs, in France, Italy, Germany and Spain. A Markov model followed patient cohorts from cataract surgery until death. Prevalence rates of patients not needing spectacles and the types of spectacles prescribed for those requiring them were obtained from clinical trials and national surveys. The economic perspective was societal. Mortality rates were incorporated into the model. Discount rates were applied. A sensitivity analysis was performed on non-discounted costs. Fewer patients with toric IOLs needed spectacles for distance vision than patients with monofocal IOLs. With monofocal IOLs more than 66% of patients needed complex spectacles compared to less than 25% implanted with toric IOLs. In France and Italy, toric IOLs reduced overall costs relative to otherwise high spectacle costs after cataract surgery. Savings were 897.0 euros (France), 822.5 euros (Germany), 895.8 euros (Italy) and 391.6 euros (Spain), without discounting. On applying a 3% discount rate the costs became 691.7 euros, 646.4 euros, 693.9 euros and 308.2 euros, respectively. Bilateral toric IOL implants in astigmatic patients decreased spectacle dependence for distance vision and the need for complex spectacles. The economic consequences for patients depended on the national spectacle costs usually incurred after cataract surgery.

  10. Societal and Family Lifetime Cost of Dementia: Implications for Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Dowd, Bryan; Kuntz, Karen M

    2017-10-01

    To estimate the cost of dementia and the extra cost of caring for someone with dementia over the cost of caring for someone without dementia. We developed an evidence-based mathematical model to simulate disease progression for newly diagnosed individuals with dementia. Data-driven trajectories of cognition, function, and behavioral and psychological symptoms were used to model disease progression and predict costs. Using modeling, we evaluated lifetime and annual costs of individuals with dementia, compared costs of those with and without clinical features of dementia, and evaluated the effect of reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% for 12 months (implemented when Mini-Mental State Examination score ≤21). Mathematical model. Representative simulated U.S. incident dementia cases. Value of informal care, out-of-pocket expenditures, Medicaid expenditures, and Medicare expenditures. From time of diagnosis (mean age 83), discounted total lifetime cost of care for a person with dementia was $321,780 (2015 dollars). Families incurred 70% of the total cost burden ($225,140), Medicaid accounted for 14% ($44,090), and Medicare accounted for 16% ($52,540). Costs for a person with dementia over a lifetime were $184,500 greater (86% incurred by families) than for someone without dementia. Total annual cost peaked at $89,000, and net cost peaked at $72,400. Reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% resulted in $3,880 and $680 lower lifetime costs than natural disease progression. Dementia substantially increases lifetime costs of care. Long-lasting, effective interventions are needed to support families because they incur the most dementia cost. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  11. Models for Battery Reliability and Lifetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G. H.; Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-03-01

    Models describing battery degradation physics are needed to more accurately understand how battery usage and next-generation battery designs can be optimized for performance and lifetime. Such lifetime models may also reduce the cost of battery aging experiments and shorten the time required to validate battery lifetime. Models for chemical degradation and mechanical stress are reviewed. Experimental analysis of aging data from a commercial iron-phosphate lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell elucidates the relative importance of several mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms.

  12. Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Miners, Alec; Smith, Colette J

    2015-01-01

    computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain...

  13. Lifetime Costs of Prophylactic Mastectomies and Reconstruction versus Surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattos, David; Gfrerer, Lisa; Reish, Richard G; Hughes, Kevin S; Cetrulo, Curtis; Colwell, Amy S; Winograd, Jonathan M; Yaremchuk, Michael J; Austen, William G; Liao, Eric C

    2015-12-01

    The past decade has seen an increasing prevalence of prophylactic mastectomy with decreasing ages of patients treated for breast cancer. Data are limited on the fiscal impacts of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy trends, and no study has compared bilateral prophylactic mastectomy with reconstruction to surveillance in high-risk patients. Lifetime third-party payer costs over 30 years were estimated with 2013 Medicare reimbursement rates. Costs were estimated for patients choosing contralateral or bilateral prophylactic mastectomy versus surveillance, with immediate reconstructions using a single-stage implant, tissue expander, or perforator-based free flap approach. Published cancer incidence rates predicted the percentage of surveillance patients that would require mastectomies. Sensitivity analyses were conducted that varied cost growth, discount rate, cancer incidence rate, and other variables. Lifetime costs and present values (3 percent discount rate) were estimated. Lifetime prophylactic mastectomy costs were lower than surveillance costs, $1292 to $1993 lower for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy and $15,668 to $21,342 lower for bilateral prophylactic mastectomy, depending on the reconstruction. Present value estimates were slightly higher for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy over contralateral surveillance but still cost saving for bilateral prophylactic mastectomy compared with bilateral surveillance. Present value estimates are also cost saving for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy when the modeled contralateral breast cancer incidence rate is increased to at least 0.6 percent per year. These findings are consistent with contralateral and bilateral prophylactic mastectomy being cost saving in many scenarios, regardless of the reconstructive option chosen. They suggest that physicians and patients should continue to receive flexibility in deciding how best to proceed clinically in each case.

  14. Lifetime, money and cost-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1984-01-01

    The paper describes briefly many methods for explicit or implicit valuation of the loss of lifetime expectancy due to radiation exposures or other hazards. The health gain from investment in protection is compared with the health gain from a general increase in wealth. It is concluded that in many instances lifetime is valued at 1 to 10 times the gross national product produced in this time. This seems to be reasonable for rich countries whereas it may be questionable for poorer countries. Here, any investment that raises the level of living of the poorer segment of the population may have a greater effect on life expectancy. (author)

  15. Minimisation of a heat exchanger networks' cost over its lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Andreja; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír; Kravanja, Zdravko

    2012-01-01

    The optimal design of heat exchanger networks (HENs) has a great influence on the profitability of a plant. The optimisation is based on trade-offs between investment and operational cost. The full lifetime of the HEN and future utility prices have to be considered rather than optimising HEN on a yearly basis using current utility prices. Single-period optimisation and synthesis models for HENs reflect current utility prices only. These prices can fluctuate rather quickly and the optimal solution may be very different from a year to year. Deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) models for HEN synthesis have been developed to account for future price projections, where the utility cost coefficients are forecasted for the lifetime of the process. An optimal design is then determined for each projection and these designs are compared against a design with fixed current prices by applying the Incremental Net Present Value and other economic measures. In case studies the difference between utility consumption, using previous optimisation methods and new, were significant; e.g. in Case Study 2 the utility savings were 18.4% for hot and 32.6% for cold utility yielding an increase of the Net Present Value (NPV) by 7.8%. Highlights: ► Optimisation using forecasted utility prices can lead to higher energy recovery. ► Incremental Net Present Value when using future versus current prices is positive. ► The reduction of utilities increases with the process lifetime. ► Developed multi-period MINLP models for HEN account for future utility prices.

  16. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lawless, Jerald F

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

  17. Lifetime costs of lung transplantation : Estimation of incremental costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanEnckevort, PJ; Koopmanschap, MA; Tenvergert, EM; VanderBij, W; Rutten, FFH

    1997-01-01

    Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung

  18. Cost-effectiveness of newborn circumcision in reducing lifetime HIV risk among U.S. males.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie L Sansom

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV incidence was substantially lower among circumcised versus uncircumcised heterosexual African men in three clinical trials. Based on those findings, we modeled the potential effect of newborn male circumcision on a U.S. male's lifetime risk of HIV, including associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years saved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given published estimates of U.S. males' lifetime HIV risk, we calculated the fraction of lifetime risk attributable to heterosexual behavior from 2005-2006 HIV surveillance data. We assumed 60% efficacy of circumcision in reducing heterosexually-acquired HIV over a lifetime, and varied efficacy in sensitivity analyses. We calculated differences in lifetime HIV risk, expected HIV treatment costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs among circumcised versus uncircumcised males. The main outcome measure was cost per HIV-related QALY saved. Circumcision reduced the lifetime HIV risk among all males by 15.7% in the base case analysis, ranging from 7.9% for white males to 20.9% for black males. Newborn circumcision was a cost-saving HIV prevention intervention for all, black and Hispanic males. The net cost of newborn circumcision per QALY saved was $87,792 for white males. Results were most sensitive to the discount rate, and circumcision efficacy and cost. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Newborn circumcision resulted in lower expected HIV-related treatment costs and a slight increase in QALYs. It reduced the 1.87% lifetime risk of HIV among all males by about 16%. The effect varied substantially by race and ethnicity. Racial and ethnic groups who could benefit the most from circumcision may have least access to it due to insurance coverage and state Medicaid policies, and these financial barriers should be addressed. More data on the long-term protective effect of circumcision on heterosexual males as well as on its efficacy in preventing HIV among MSM would be useful.

  19. [The costs for different voice prostheses depending on the lifetime].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuldt, T; Ovari, A; Dommerich, S

    2013-06-01

    Voice prostheses are available in different types of architecture und from different producers. Especially the ones with antifungal properties are characterized by a high pricing. The aim of this paper is to check, whether these prices are reflected by the prosthesis life time.A Benchmarking with usage of mean lifetime and prosthesis costs. Comparing Provox 1, Provox 2, Provox Vega, Provox ActiValve, ESKA-Herrmann, Blom Singer Classic, Phonax, Blom Singer Advantage.The voice prosthesis Provox 1 offers the best price-lifetime-ratio (1.0). It's 6.7-times higher than the one of the Provox ActiValve (0.15). In addition, the classic prostheses Provox 2 (0.53), Blom Singer Classic (0.54) and ESKA-Herrmann (0.72) offer a good ratio compared to Provox 1, too.The mean lifetime of the voice prostheses do not reflect the pricing. The Provox 1 offers the best ratio and should be used as a reference in pricing the prostheses. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  20. Lifetime modelling of lead acid batteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindner, H.; Cronin, T.; Lundsager, P.

    2005-01-01

    The performance and lifetime of energy storage in batteries are an important part of many renewable based energy systems. Not only do batteries impact on the system performance but they are also a significant expenditure when considering the whole lifecycle costs. Poor prediction of lifetime can......, therefore, lead to uncertainty in the viability of the system in the long term. This report details the work undertaken to investigate and develop two different battery life prediction methodologies withspecific reference to their use in hybrid renewable energy systems. Alongside this, results from battery...... tests designed to exercise batteries in similar modes to those that they experience in hybrid systems have also been analysed. These have yieldedbattery specific parameters for use in the prediction software and the first results in the validation process of the software are also given. This work has...

  1. Toward a new spacecraft optimal design lifetime? Impact of marginal cost of durability and reduced launch price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snelgrove, Kailah B.; Saleh, Joseph Homer

    2016-10-01

    The average design lifetime of satellites continues to increase, in part due to the expectation that the satellite cost per operational day decreases monotonically with increased design lifetime. In this work, we challenge this expectation by revisiting the durability choice problem for spacecraft in the face of reduced launch price and under various cost of durability models. We first provide a brief overview of the economic thought on durability and highlight its limitations as they pertain to our problem (e.g., the assumption of zero marginal cost of durability). We then investigate the merging influence of spacecraft cost of durability and launch price, and we identify conditions that give rise cost-optimal design lifetimes that are shorter than the longest lifetime technically achievable. For example, we find that high costs of durability favor short design lifetimes, and that under these conditions the optimal choice is relatively robust to reduction in launch prices. By contrast, lower costs of durability favor longer design lifetimes, and the optimal choice is highly sensitive to reduction in launch price. In both cases, reduction in launch prices translates into reduction of the optimal design lifetime. Our results identify a number of situations for which satellite operators would be better served by spacecraft with shorter design lifetimes. Beyond cost issues and repeat purchases, other implications of long design lifetime include the increased risk of technological slowdown given the lower frequency of purchases and technology refresh, and the increased risk for satellite operators that the spacecraft will be technologically obsolete before the end of its life (with the corollary of loss of value and competitive advantage). We conclude with the recommendation that, should pressure to extend spacecraft design lifetime continue, satellite manufacturers should explore opportunities to lease their spacecraft to operators, or to take a stake in the ownership

  2. Optimizing design of converters using power cycling lifetime models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus Ørndrup; Munk-Nielsen, Stig

    2015-01-01

    Converter power cycling lifetime depends heavily on converter operation point. A lifetime model of a single power module switched mode power supply with wide input voltage range is shown. A lifetime model is created using a power loss model, a thermal model and a model for power cycling capability...... with a given mission profile. A method to improve the expected lifetime of the converter is presented, taking into account switching frequency, input voltage and transformer turns ratio....

  3. Lifetime modelling of lead acid batteries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bindner, H.; Cronin, T.; Lundsager, P.

    2005-04-01

    The performance and lifetime of energy storage in batteries are an important part of many renewable based energy systems. Not only do batteries impact on the system performance but they are also a significant expenditure when considering the whole life cycle costs. Poor prediction of lifetime can, therefore, lead to uncertainty in the viability of the system in the long term. This report details the work undertaken to investigate and develop two different battery life prediction methodologies with specific reference to their use in hybrid renewable energy systems. Alongside this, results from battery tests designed to exercise batteries in similar modes to those that they experience in hybrid systems have also been analysed. These have yielded battery specific parameters for use in the prediction software and the first results in the validation process of the software are also given. This work has been part of the European Union Benchmarking research project (ENK6-CT-2001-80576), funded by the European Union, the United States and Australian governments together with other European states and other public and private financing bodies. The project has concentrated on lead acid batteries as this technology is the most commonly used. Through this work the project partner institutions have intended to provide useful tools to improve the design capabilities of organizations, private and public, in remote power systems. (au)

  4. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-09-01

    Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

  5. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  6. The total lifetime health cost savings of smoking cessation to society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Gitte Susanne; Prescott, Eva; Sørensen, Thorkild I A

    2005-01-01

    Smoking cessation has major immediate and long-term health benefits. However, ex-smokers' total lifetime health costs and continuing smokers' costs remain uncompared, and hence the economic savings of smoking cessation to society have not been determined.......Smoking cessation has major immediate and long-term health benefits. However, ex-smokers' total lifetime health costs and continuing smokers' costs remain uncompared, and hence the economic savings of smoking cessation to society have not been determined....

  7. Primary treatments for clinically localised prostate cancer: a comprehensive lifetime cost-utility analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooperberg, Matthew R; Ramakrishna, Naren R; Duff, Steven B; Hughes, Kathleen E; Sadownik, Sara; Smith, Joseph A; Tewari, Ashutosh K

    2013-03-01

    WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: Multiple treatment alternatives exist for localised prostate cancer, with few high-quality studies directly comparing their comparative effectiveness and costs. The present study is the most comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis to date for localised prostate cancer, conducted with a lifetime horizon and accounting for survival, health-related quality-of-life, and cost impact of secondary treatments and other downstream events, as well as primary treatment choices. The analysis found minor differences, generally slightly favouring surgical methods, in quality-adjusted life years across treatment options. However, radiation therapy (RT) was consistently more expensive than surgery, and some alternatives, e.g. intensity-modulated RT for low-risk disease, were dominated - that is, both more expensive and less effective than competing alternatives. To characterise the costs and outcomes associated with radical prostatectomy (open, laparoscopic, or robot-assisted) and radiation therapy (RT: dose-escalated three-dimensional conformal RT, intensity-modulated RT, brachytherapy, or combination), using a comprehensive, lifetime decision analytical model. A Markov model was constructed to follow hypothetical men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk prostate cancer over their lifetimes after primary treatment; probabilities of outcomes were based on an exhaustive literature search yielding 232 unique publications. In each Markov cycle, patients could have remission, recurrence, salvage treatment, metastasis, death from prostate cancer, and death from other causes. Utilities for each health state were determined, and disutilities were applied for complications and toxicities of treatment. Costs were determined from the USA payer perspective, with incorporation of patient costs in a sensitivity analysis. Differences across treatments in quality-adjusted life years across methods were modest, ranging from 10.3 to

  8. Lifetime Model of the Inverter-fed Motors Secondary Insulation by using a Design of Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Lahoud, Nadine; Nguyen, Manh Quan; Maussion, Pascal; Malec, David; Mary, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    Numerous parameters (environmental conditions, material and equipments design) affect the ageing (and consequently the lifetime) of the Electrical Insulation System (EIS) of motors supplied by static converters. In order to find a modeling of the lifetime of such materials, accelerated tests have to be considered. The problem is that if we consider all the relevant parameters, these tests become costly and take a lot of time. Consequently the topic of this study i...

  9. Lifetime of {sup 44}Ti as probe for supernova models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goerres, J; Meissner, J; Schatz, H; Stech, E; Tischhauser, P; Wiescher, M [Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN (United States); Bazin, D; Harkewicz, R; Hellstroem, M; Sherrill, B; Steiner, M [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States); Boyd, R N [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Buchmann, L [TRIUMF, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Hartmann, D H [Clemson Univ., Clemson, SC (United States); Hinnefeld, J D [Indiana Univ. South Bend, South Bend, IN (United States)

    1998-06-01

    The recent observation of {sup 44}Ti radioactivity in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory allows the determination of the absolute amount of {sup 44}Ti. This provides a test for current supernova models. The main uncertainty is the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti. We report a new measurement of the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti applying a novel technique. A mixed radioactive beam containing {sup 44}Ti as well as {sup 22}Na was implanted and the resulting {gamma}-activity was measured. This allowed the determination of the lifetime of {sup 44}Ti relative to the lifetime of {sup 22}Na, {tau} = (87.0 {+-} 1.9) y. With this lifetime, the {sup 44}Ti abundance agrees with theoretical predictions within the remaining observational uncertainties. (orig.)

  10. Lifetime health effects and costs of diabetes treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.W. Niessen (Louis Wilhelmus); R. Dijkstra; R.C.W. Hutubessy (Raymond); G.E.H.M. Rutten (Guy); A.F. Casparie (Anton)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: This article presents cost-effectiveness analyses of the major diabetes interventions as formulated in the revised Dutch guidelines for diabetes type 2 patients in primary and secondary care. The analyses consider two types of care: diabetes control and the

  11. Empirical membrane lifetime model for heavy duty fuel cell systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macauley, Natalia; Watson, Mark; Lauritzen, Michael; Knights, Shanna; Wang, G. Gary; Kjeang, Erik

    2016-12-01

    Heavy duty fuel cells used in transportation system applications such as transit buses expose the fuel cell membranes to conditions that can lead to lifetime-limiting membrane failure via combined chemical and mechanical degradation. Highly durable membranes and reliable predictive models are therefore needed in order to achieve the ultimate heavy duty fuel cell lifetime target of 25,000 h. In the present work, an empirical membrane lifetime model was developed based on laboratory data from a suite of accelerated membrane durability tests. The model considers the effects of cell voltage, temperature, oxygen concentration, humidity cycling, humidity level, and platinum in the membrane using inverse power law and exponential relationships within the framework of a general log-linear Weibull life-stress statistical distribution. The obtained model is capable of extrapolating the membrane lifetime from accelerated test conditions to use level conditions during field operation. Based on typical conditions for the Whistler, British Columbia fuel cell transit bus fleet, the model predicts a stack lifetime of 17,500 h and a membrane leak initiation time of 9200 h. Validation performed with the aid of a field operated stack confirmed the initial goal of the model to predict membrane lifetime within 20% of the actual operating time.

  12. Lifetime-Aware Cloud Data Centers: Models and Performance Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Chiaraviglio

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a model to evaluate the server lifetime in cloud data centers (DCs. In particular, when the server power level is decreased, the failure rate tends to be reduced as a consequence of the limited number of components powered on. However, the variation between the different power states triggers a failure rate increase. We therefore consider these two effects in a server lifetime model, subject to an energy-aware management policy. We then evaluate our model in a realistic case study. Our results show that the impact on the server lifetime is far from negligible. As a consequence, we argue that a lifetime-aware approach should be pursued to decide how and when to apply a power state change to a server.

  13. Modeling and optimization of membrane lifetime in dead-end ultra filtration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zondervan, E.; Roffel, B.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a membrane lifetime model is developed and experimentally validated. The lifetime model is based on the Weibull probability density function. The lifetime model can be used to determine an unambiguous characteristic membrane lifetime. Experimental results showed that membrane lifetime

  14. Lifetime cost effectiveness of a through-school nutrition and physical programme: Project Energize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rush, Elaine; Obolonkin, Victor; McLennan, Stephanie; Graham, David; Harris, James D; Mernagh, Paul; Weston, Adéle R

    2014-01-01

    Project Energize, a multicomponent through-school physical activity and nutrition programme, is delivered to all primary school children in the Waikato region. The programme aim is to improve the overall health and reduce the rate of weight gain of all Waikato primary school children. An existing economic model was used to extrapolate the programme effects, initial costs, lifetime health treatment cost structures, quality-adjusted-life-years gained and increased life expectancy to the general and Māori child population of New Zealand. In March 2011, a sample of 2474 younger (7.58 ± 0.57 years, mean ± SD) and 2330 older (10.30 ± 0.51 years) children (36% Māori) attending Energize schools had body mass index measured and compared using mixed effect modelling with unEnergized comparison children from 2004 and 2006 from the same region. In 2011 the median body mass index reduction compared with the comparison younger children was -0.504 (90% CI -0.435 to -0.663) kg/m(2) and in the older children -0.551 (-0.456 to -0.789) kg/m(2). In 2010 there were 42,067 children attending Energize schools and in the same year NZ$1,891,175 was spent to deliver the programme; a cost of $44.96/child/year. Compared to the comparison children the increment in cost/quality-adjusted-life-year gained was $30,438 for the younger and $24,690 for the older children, and lower for Māori (younger $28,241, older $22,151) and for the middle socioeconomic status schools ($23,211, $17,891). Project Energize would improve quality and length of life and when compared with other obesity prevention programmes previously assessed with this model, it would be relatively cost-effective from the health treatment payer's perspective.

  15. Cost and Performance Model for Photovoltaic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Smith, J. H.; Davisson, M. C.; Reiter, L. J.

    1986-01-01

    Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.

  16. Modeling and Application of Customer Lifetime Value in Online Retail

    OpenAIRE

    Pavel Jasek; Lenka Vrana; Lucie Sperkova; Zdenek Smutny; Marek Kobulsky

    2018-01-01

    This article provides an empirical statistical analysis and discussion of the predictive abilities of selected customer lifetime value (CLV) models that could be used in online shopping within e-commerce business settings. The comparison of CLV predictive abilities, using selected evaluation metrics, is made on selected CLV models: Extended Pareto/NBD model (EP/NBD), Markov chain model and Status Quo model. The article uses six online store datasets with annual revenues in the order of tens o...

  17. The lifetime costs of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, D; Dee, A; Perry, I J

    2018-04-01

    Research into lifetime costs of obesity in childhood is growing. This review synthesizes that knowledge. A computerized search of the international literature since 2000 was conducted. Mean total lifetime healthcare and productivity costs were estimated and inflated to 2014 Irish euros. This resulted in 13 published articles. The methodology used in these studies varied widely, and only one study estimated both healthcare and productivity costs. Cognizant of this heterogeneity, the mean total lifetime cost of a child or adolescent with obesity was €149,206 (range, €129,410 to €178,933) for a boy and €148,196 (range, €136,576 to €173,842) for a girl. This was divided into an average of €16,229 (range, €6,580 to €35,810) in healthcare costs and €132,977 (range, €122,830 to €143,123) in productivity losses for boys and €19,636 (range, €8,016 to €45,283) and €128,560, respectively, for girls. Income penalty accounted for the greater part of productivity costs, amounting to €97,118 (range, €86,971 to €107,264) per male adolescent with obesity and €126,108 per female adolescent. Healthcare costs and income penalty appear greater in girls while costs because of workdays lost seem greater in boys. There is proportionality between body mass index and costs. Productivity costs are greater than healthcare costs. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  18. Mathematical Model of Lifetime Duration at Insulation of Electrical Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Răduca

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This paper present a mathematical model of lifetime duration at hydro generator stator winding insulation when at hydro generator can be appear the damage regimes. The estimation to make by take of the programming and non-programming revisions, through the introduction and correlation of the new defined notions.

  19. Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model

  20. A health economic lifetime treatment pathway model for low back pain in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olafsson, Gylfi; Jonsson, Emma; Fritzell, Peter; Hägg, Olle; Borgström, Fredrik

    2017-12-01

    To develop a health economic model to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes over the healthcare treatment pathway for patients with low back pain (LBP). A health economic model, consisting of a decision tree structure with a Markov microsimulation model at the end of each branch, was created. Patients were followed from first observed clinical presentation with LBP until the age of 100 years or death. The underlying data to populate the model were based on Swedish national and regional registry data on healthcare resource use and sickness insurance in patients presenting with LBP in the Swedish region Västra Götaland during 2008-2012. Costs (outpatient healthcare visits, inpatient bed days, pharmaceuticals, productivity loss), EUR 2016, and quality-of-life based on EQ-5D data from the registries and published estimates were summarized over the lifetime of the patients with 3% annual discount. A lost quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was valued at €70,000. Mean lifetime total cost was estimated at €47,452/patient, of which indirect costs were 57%. Total lifetime economic burden for all patients coming to clinical presentation in Sweden per year was €8.8bn. The average LBP patient was estimated to face a loss of 2.7 QALYs over their lifetime compared with the general population. For all patients in Sweden coming to clinical presentation in 1 year this gives 505,407 QALYs lost, valued at €35.3bn. Adding the economic burden, the total societal burden amounts to €44.1bn. This pathway model shows that most patients with LBP receive conservative care, and a minority consume high-cost healthcare interventions like surgery. The model could be used to see broad economic effects of different patterns of healthcare provision in sub-groups with LBP and to estimate where it is possible to influence these pathways to increase utility for patients and for society.

  1. The use of lifetime functions in the optimization of interventions on existing bridges considering maintenance and failure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Seung-Ie [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: yangsione@dreamwiz.com; Frangopol, Dan M. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: dan.frangopol@colorado.edu; Kawakami, Yoriko [Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation, Kobe Maintenance Department, 16-1 Shinko-cho Chuo-ku Kobe City, Hyogo, 650-0041 (Japan)]. E-mail: yoriko-kawakami@hepc.go.jp; Neves, Luis C. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: lneves@civil.uminho.pt

    2006-06-15

    In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions.

  2. The use of lifetime functions in the optimization of interventions on existing bridges considering maintenance and failure costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Seung-Ie; Frangopol, Dan M.; Kawakami, Yoriko; Neves, Luis C.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions

  3. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  4. Impact of lifetime model selections on the reliability prediction of IGBT modules in modular multilevel converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yi; Wang, Huai; Wang, Zhongxu

    2017-01-01

    , this paper benchmarks the most commonly-employed lifetime models of power semiconductor devices for offshore Modular Multilevel Converters (MMC) based wind farms. The benchmarking reveals that the lifetime model selection has a significant impact on the lifetime estimation. The use of analytical lifetime...

  5. Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control

    OpenAIRE

    Thong-On, Atcharawadi; Boonruang, Chatdanai

    2016-01-01

    Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding of F...

  6. Cost per QALY (quality-adjusted life year and lifetime cost of prolonged mechanical ventilation in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Chuan Hung

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV are increasing and producing financial burdens worldwide. This study determines the cost per QALY (quality-adjusted life year, out-of-pocket expenses, and lifetime costs for PMV patients stratified by underlying diseases and cognition levels. METHODS: A nationwide sample of 50,481 patients with continual mechanical ventilation for more than 21 days was collected during 1997-2007. After stratifying the patients according to specific diagnoses, a latent class analysis (LCA was performed to categorise PMV patients with multiple co-morbidities into several homogeneous groups. The survival functions were estimated for individual groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and extrapolated to 300 months through a semi-parametric method. The survival functions were adjusted using an EQ-5D utility value derived from a convenience sample of 142 PMV patients to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALE. Another convenience sample of 165 patients was used to estimate the out-of-pocket expenses. The lifetime expenditures paid by the single-payer National Health Insurance (NHI system and patients' families were estimated by multiplying average monthly expenditures by the survival probabilities and summing the values over lifetime. RESULTS: PMV therapy costs more than 100,000 U.S. dollars (USD per QALY for all patients with poor cognition. For patients with partial cognition, PMV therapy costs less than 56,000 USD per QALY for those with liver cirrhosis, intracranial or spinal cord injuries, and 57,000-69,000 USD for patients with multiple co-morbidities under age of 65. The average lifetime cost of PMV was usually below 56,000 USD. The out-of-pocket expenses were often more than one-third of the total cost of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: PMV treatment for patients with poor cognition would cost more than 5 times Taiwan's GDP (gross domestic products, or less cost-effective. The out

  7. A universal model for languages and cities, and their lifetimes

    OpenAIRE

    Tuncay, Caglar

    2007-01-01

    Present human languages display slightly asymmetric log-normal (Gauss) distribution for size [1-3], whereas present cities follow power law (Pareto-Zipf law)[4]. Our model considers the competition between languages and that between cities in terms of growing (multiplicative noise process)[5] and fragmentation [6]; where, relevant parameters are (naturally) different for languages and cities. We consider lifetime distribution for old and living languages and that for old and living cities. We...

  8. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  9. Determining of the Optimal Device Lifetime using Mathematical Renewal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežo Dušan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Paper deals with the operations and equipment of the machine in the process of organizing production. During operation machines require maintenance and repairs, while in case of failure or machine wears it is necessary to replace them with new ones. For the process of replacement of old machines with new ones the term renewal is used. Qualitative aspects of the renewal process observe renewal theory, which is mainly based on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. Devices lifetimes are closely related to the renewal of the devices. Presented article is focused on mathematical deduction of mathematical renewal models and determining optimal lifetime of the devices from the aspect of expenditures on renewal process.

  10. Modeling and Application of Customer Lifetime Value in Online Retail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Jasek

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an empirical statistical analysis and discussion of the predictive abilities of selected customer lifetime value (CLV models that could be used in online shopping within e-commerce business settings. The comparison of CLV predictive abilities, using selected evaluation metrics, is made on selected CLV models: Extended Pareto/NBD model (EP/NBD, Markov chain model and Status Quo model. The article uses six online store datasets with annual revenues in the order of tens of millions of euros for the comparison. The EP/NBD model has outperformed other selected models in a majority of evaluation metrics and can be considered good and stable for non-contractual relations in online shopping. The implications for the deployment of selected CLV models in practice, as well as suggestions for future research, are also discussed.

  11. Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thong-On, Atcharawadi; Boonruang, Chatdanai

    2016-11-03

    Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding of Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo tube to carbon steel pipe with chromium-containing filler. The cost of production could be reduced by the use of low cost material such as carbon steel pipe for boiler header. The effect of chromium content on corrosion behavior of the weld was greater than that of the microstructure. The lifetime of the welded boiler can be increased by improvement of mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone.

  12. Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atcharawadi Thong-On

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG welding of Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo tube to carbon steel pipe with chromium-containing filler. The cost of production could be reduced by the use of low cost material such as carbon steel pipe for boiler header. The effect of chromium content on corrosion behavior of the weld was greater than that of the microstructure. The lifetime of the welded boiler can be increased by improvement of mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone.

  13. Costs and expected gain in lifetime health from intensive care versus general ward care of 30,712 individual patients: a distribution-weighted cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemark, Frode; Haaland, Øystein A; Kvåle, Reidar; Flaatten, Hans; Norheim, Ole F; Johansson, Kjell A

    2017-08-21

    Clinicians, hospital managers, policy makers, and researchers are concerned about high costs, increased demand, and variation in priorities in the intensive care unit (ICU). The objectives of this modelling study are to describe the extra costs and expected health gains associated with admission to the ICU versus the general ward for 30,712 patients and the variation in cost-effectiveness estimates among subgroups and individuals, and to perform a distribution-weighted economic evaluation incorporating extra weighting to patients with high severity of disease. We used a decision-analytic model that estimates the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (ICER) from ICU admission compared with general ward care using Norwegian registry data from 2008 to 2010. We assigned increasing weights to health gains for those with higher severity of disease, defined as less expected lifetime health if not admitted. The study has inherent uncertainty of findings because a randomized clinical trial comparing patients admitted or rejected to the ICU has never been performed. Uncertainty is explored in probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The mean cost-effectiveness of ICU admission versus ward care was €11,600/QALY, with 1.6 QALYs gained and an incremental cost of €18,700 per patient. The probability (p) of cost-effectiveness was 95% at a threshold of €22,000/QALY. The mean ICER for medical admissions was €10,700/QALY (p = 97%), €12,300/QALY (p = 93%) for admissions after acute surgery, and €14,700/QALY (p = 84%) after planned surgery. For individualized ICERs, there was a 50% probability that ICU admission was cost-effective for 85% of the patients at a threshold of €64,000/QALY, leaving 15% of the admissions not cost-effective. In the distributional evaluation, 8% of all patients had distribution-weighted ICERs (higher weights to gains for more severe conditions) above €64,000/QALY. High-severity admissions gained the most, and were more

  14. Designer's unified cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, William T.; Ilcewicz, L. B.; Swanson, G. D.; Gutowski, T.

    1992-01-01

    A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

  15. Designers' unified cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, W.; Ilcewicz, L.; Swanson, G.; Gutowski, T.

    1992-01-01

    The Structures Technology Program Office (STPO) at NASA LaRC has initiated development of a conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state-of-the-art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a database and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. This paper presents the team members, approach, goals, plans, and progress to date for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

  16. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke

    2010-06-11

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair of species is denoted by an interaction coefficient. At each time step, a new species is introduced to the system with randomly assigned interaction coefficients. If the sum of the coefficients, which we call the fitness of a species, is negative, the species goes extinct. The species-lifetime distribution is found to be well characterized by a stretched exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. This profile agrees not only with more realistic population dynamics models but also with fossil records. We also find that an age-independent and inversely diversity-dependent mortality, which is confirmed in the simulation, is a key mechanism accounting for the distribution. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

  17. Cost effectiveness analysis comparing repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation to antidepressant medications after a first treatment failure for major depressive disorder in newly diagnosed patients - A lifetime analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Jeffrey; Carpenter, Linda; Leuchter, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) commonly is used for the treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) after patients have failed to benefit from trials of multiple antidepressant medications. No analysis to date has examined the cost-effectiveness of rTMS used earlier in the course of treatment and over a patients' lifetime. We used lifetime Markov simulation modeling to compare the direct costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) of rTMS and medication therapy in patients with newly diagnosed MDD (ages 20-59) who had failed to benefit from one pharmacotherapy trial. Patients' life expectancies, rates of response and remission, and quality of life outcomes were derived from the literature, and treatment costs were based upon published Medicare reimbursement data. Baseline costs, aggregate per year quality of life assessments (QALYs), Monte Carlo simulation, tornado analysis, assessment of dominance, and one way sensitivity analysis were also performed. The discount rate applied was 3%. Lifetime direct treatment costs, and QALYs identified rTMS as the dominant therapy compared to antidepressant medications (i.e., lower costs with better outcomes) in all age ranges, with costs/improved QALYs ranging from $2,952/0.32 (older patients) to $11,140/0.43 (younger patients). One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the input variables of cost per rTMS session, monthly prescription drug cost, and the number of rTMS sessions per year. rTMS was identified as the dominant therapy compared to antidepressant medication trials over the life of the patient across the lifespan of adults with MDD, given current costs of treatment. These models support the use of rTMS after a single failed antidepressant medication trial versus further attempts at medication treatment in adults with MDD.

  18. Cost effectiveness analysis comparing repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation to antidepressant medications after a first treatment failure for major depressive disorder in newly diagnosed patients - A lifetime analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Voigt

    Full Text Available Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS commonly is used for the treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD after patients have failed to benefit from trials of multiple antidepressant medications. No analysis to date has examined the cost-effectiveness of rTMS used earlier in the course of treatment and over a patients' lifetime.We used lifetime Markov simulation modeling to compare the direct costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs of rTMS and medication therapy in patients with newly diagnosed MDD (ages 20-59 who had failed to benefit from one pharmacotherapy trial. Patients' life expectancies, rates of response and remission, and quality of life outcomes were derived from the literature, and treatment costs were based upon published Medicare reimbursement data. Baseline costs, aggregate per year quality of life assessments (QALYs, Monte Carlo simulation, tornado analysis, assessment of dominance, and one way sensitivity analysis were also performed. The discount rate applied was 3%.Lifetime direct treatment costs, and QALYs identified rTMS as the dominant therapy compared to antidepressant medications (i.e., lower costs with better outcomes in all age ranges, with costs/improved QALYs ranging from $2,952/0.32 (older patients to $11,140/0.43 (younger patients. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the input variables of cost per rTMS session, monthly prescription drug cost, and the number of rTMS sessions per year.rTMS was identified as the dominant therapy compared to antidepressant medication trials over the life of the patient across the lifespan of adults with MDD, given current costs of treatment. These models support the use of rTMS after a single failed antidepressant medication trial versus further attempts at medication treatment in adults with MDD.

  19. SUNSPOT AND STARSPOT LIFETIMES IN A TURBULENT EROSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvinenko, Yuri E. [Department of Mathematics, University of Waikato, P. B. 3105, Hamilton (New Zealand); Wheatland, M. S. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

    2017-01-10

    Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D : an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B {sup −ν} and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B . Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “super fast” diffusion. For the step-function case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.

  20. The implications of plant design on the life-time costs for nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macphee, D.S.; Hexter, B.C.; Young, M.P.; Wilson, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Utilising the experience gained during many years of design and project management of nuclear plant, BNFL is now approaching the final stages of the construction and commissioning of the Sellafield MOX Plant (SMP) in the UK. The paper uses the SMP project to highlight the benefits of these experiences, in particular addressing the implications of the approach to plant design on life time costs. In addition to providing BNFL with a state of the art, commercial scale MOX fuel fabrication facility, the construction of this 120 tHM/yr facility, which is currently in the advanced stages of commissioning, represents a significant demonstration of the design and project management skills of BNFL Engineering Ltd. As well as meeting the main process requirements, the plant design incorporates the highest standards of safety, together with input from the future plant operators and potential customers. As befits a commercial scale plutonium handling facility, SMP also incorporates material accountancy and security provisions that will meet all international requirements. Design, construction and commissioning of this complex and highly automated plant, has benefited from a totally integrated approach to design and documentation that considers not only project implementation but also overall lifetime costs. In addition, project management techniques, developed over many years of major project construction at Sellafield, have been utilised in order to ensure successful project implementation against a background of significant technical challenge and 'fast track' timescales. (author)

  1. Lifetime cost of everolimus vs axitinib in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who failed prior sunitinib therapy in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Allison; Sherman, Steven; Pal, Sumanta; Chua, Andrew; Gorritz, Magdaliz; Liu, Zhimei; Wang, Xufang; Culver, Kenneth; Casciano, Roman; Garrison, Louis P

    2015-03-01

    Everolimus and axitinib are approved in the US to treat patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after failure on sunitinib or sorafenib, and one prior systemic therapy (e.g., sunitinib), respectively. Two indirect comparisons performed to evaluate progression-free survival in patients treated with everolimus vs axitinib suggested similar efficacy between the two treatments. Therefore, this analysis compares the lifetime costs of these two therapies among sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients from a US payer perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients and estimate the cost of treating patients with everolimus vs axitinib. The following health states were included: stable disease without adverse events (AEs), stable disease with AEs, disease progression (PD), and death. The model included the following resources: active treatments, post-progression treatments, adverse events, physician and nurse visits, scans and tests, and palliative care. Resource utilization inputs were derived from a US claims database analysis. Additionally, a 3% annual discount rate was applied to costs, and the robustness of the model results was tested by conducting sensitivity analyses, including those on dosing scheme and post-progression treatment costs. Base case results demonstrated that patients treated with everolimus cost an average of $12,985 (11%) less over their lifetimes than patients treated with axitinib. The primary difference in costs was related to active treatment, which was largely driven by axitinib's higher dose intensity. RESULTS remained consistent across sensitivity analyses for AE and PD treatment costs, as well as dose intensity and discount rates. The results suggest that everolimus likely leads to lower lifetime costs than axitinib for sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients in the US.

  2. Alpine ibex males grow large horns at no survival cost for most of their lifetime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toïgo, Carole; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Loison, Anne

    2013-12-01

    Large horns or antlers require a high energy allocation to produce and carry both physiological and social reproductive costs. Following the principle of energy allocation that implies trade-offs among fitness components, growing large weapons early in life should thus reduce future growth and survival. Evidence for such costs is ambiguous, however, partly because individual heterogeneity can counterbalance trade-offs. Individuals with larger horns or antlers may be of better quality and thus have a greater capacity to survive. We investigated trade-offs between male early horn growth and future horn growth, baseline mortality, onset of actuarial senescence, and rate of ageing in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex) population. Horn growth of males in early life was positively correlated to their horn length throughout their entire life. Cohort variation and individual heterogeneity both accounted for among-individual variation in horn length, suggesting both long-lasting effects of early life conditions and individual-specific horn growth trajectories. Early horn growth did not influence annual survival until 12 years of age, indicating that males do not invest in horn growth at survival costs over most of their lifetime. However, males with fast-growing horns early in life tended to have lower survival at very old ages. Individual heterogeneity, along with the particular life-history tactic of male ibex (weak participation to the rut until an old age after which they burn out in high mating investment), are likely to explain why the expected trade-off between horn growth and survival does not show up, at least until very old ages.

  3. Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

  4. Proposed reliability cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1973-01-01

    The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

  5. The predicted lifetime costs and health consequences of calcium and vitamin D supplementation for fracture preventio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagen, G.; Wisløff, T.; Sønbø Kristiansen, Ivar

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Some studies indicate that calcium supplementation increases cardiovascular risk. We assessed whether such effects could counterbalance the fracture benefits from supplementation. Accounting for cardiovascular outcomes, calcium may cause net harm and would not be cost-effective. Clinicians...... and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such supplementation. Methods: We created a probabilistic Markov simulation model that was analysed at the individual patient level. We analysed 65-year-old Norwegian women with a 2.3 % 10-year risk of hip fracture and a 9.3 % risk of any major fracture according......-, and high-risk scenario. Results: Assuming no cardiovascular effects, CaD supplementation produces improved health outcomes resulting in an incremental gain of 0.0223 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and increases costs by €322 compared with no treatment (cost-effectiveness ratio €14,453 per QALY gained...

  6. Recording Lifetime Behavior and Movement in an Invertebrate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Sige; Liedo, Pablo; Altamirano-Robles, Leopoldo; Cruz-Enriquez, Janeth; Morice, Amy; Ingram, Donald K.; Kaub, Kevin; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Carey, James R.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of lifetime behavioral changes is essential for understanding aging and aging-related diseases. However, such studies are scarce partly due to the lack of efficient tools. Here we describe and provide proof of concept for a stereo vision system that classifies and sequentially records at an extremely fine scale six different behaviors (resting, micro-movement, walking, flying, feeding and drinking) and the within-cage (3D) location of individual tephritid fruit flies by time-of-day throughout their lives. Using flies fed on two different diets, full sugar-yeast and sugar-only diets, we report for the first time their behavioral changes throughout their lives at a high resolution. We have found that the daily activity peaks at the age of 15–20 days and then gradually declines with age for flies on both diets. However, the overall daily activity is higher for flies on sugar-only diet than those on the full diet. Flies on sugar-only diet show a stronger diurnal localization pattern with higher preference to staying on the top of the cage during the period of light-off when compared to flies on the full diet. Clustering analyses of age-specific behavior patterns reveal three distinct young, middle-aged and old clusters for flies on each of the two diets. The middle-aged groups for flies on sugar-only diet consist of much younger age groups when compared to flies on full diet. This technology provides research opportunities for using a behavioral informatics approach for understanding different ways in which behavior, movement, and aging in model organisms are mutually affecting. PMID:21559058

  7. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  8. Two-Year and Lifetime Cost-Effectiveness of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Versus 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohler, Racquel E. [Department of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Sheets, Nathan C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina Hospitals, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Wheeler, Stephanie B. [Department of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Nutting, Chris [Royal Marsden Hospital, London, United Kindom (United Kingdom); Hall, Emma [Clinical Trials and Statistics Unit, Division of Clinical Studies, Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Chera, Bhishamjit S., E-mail: bchera@med.unc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina Hospitals, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To assess the cost-effectiveness of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) in the treatment of head-and neck-cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: We used a Markov model to simulate radiation therapy-induced xerostomia and dysphagia in a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old HNC patients. Model input parameters were derived from PARSPORT (CRUK/03/005) patient-level trial data and quality-of-life and Medicare cost data from published literature. We calculated average incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the US health care perspective as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and compared our ICERs with current cost-effectiveness standards whereby treatment comparators less than $50,000 per QALY gained are considered cost-effective. Results: In the first 2 years after initial treatment, IMRT is not cost-effective compared with 3D-CRT, given an average ICER of $101,100 per QALY gained. However, over 15 years (remaining lifetime on the basis of average life expectancy of a 65-year-old), IMRT is more cost-effective at $34,523 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Although HNC patients receiving IMRT will likely experience reduced xerostomia and dysphagia symptoms, the small quality-of-life benefit associated with IMRT is not cost-effective in the short term but may be cost-effective over a patient's lifetime, assuming benefits persist over time and patients are healthy and likely to live for a sustained period. Additional data quantifying the long-term benefits of IMRT, however, are needed.

  9. Computer programs for capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes for laser fusion and other advanced technology facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergrass, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    Three FORTRAN programs, CAPITAL, VENTURE, and INDEXER, have been developed to automate computations used in assessing the economic viability of proposed or conceptual laser fusion and other advanced-technology facilities, as well as conventional projects. The types of calculations performed by these programs are, respectively, capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes. The codes permit these three topics to be addressed with considerable sophistication commensurate with user requirements and available data

  10. Profit-Based Model Selection for Customer Retention Using Individual Customer Lifetime Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Óskarsdóttir, María; Baesens, Bart; Vanthienen, Jan

    2018-03-01

    The goal of customer retention campaigns, by design, is to add value and enhance the operational efficiency of businesses. For organizations that strive to retain their customers in saturated, and sometimes fast moving, markets such as the telecommunication and banking industries, implementing customer churn prediction models that perform well and in accordance with the business goals is vital. The expected maximum profit (EMP) measure is tailored toward this problem by taking into account the costs and benefits of a retention campaign and estimating its worth for the organization. Unfortunately, the measure assumes fixed and equal customer lifetime value (CLV) for all customers, which has been shown to not correspond well with reality. In this article, we extend the EMP measure to take into account the variability in the lifetime values of customers, thereby basing it on individual characteristics. We demonstrate how to incorporate the heterogeneity of CLVs when CLVs are known, when their prior distribution is known, and when neither is known. By taking into account individual CLVs, our proposed approach of measuring model performance gives novel insights when deciding on a customer retention campaign. The method is dependent on the characteristics of the customer base as is compliant with modern business analytics and accommodates the data-driven culture that has manifested itself within organizations.

  11. Review of selected cost drivers for decisions on continued operation of older nuclear reactors. Safety upgrades, lifetime extension, decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    Lately, the approach to the operation of relatively old NPPs has become an important issue for the nuclear industry for several reasons. First, a large part of operating NPPs will reach the planned end of their lives relatively soon. Replacing these capacities can involve significant investment for the concerned countries and utilities. Second, many operating NPPs while about 30 years old are still in very good condition. Their continued safe operation appears possible and may bring about essential economic gains. Finally, with the costs of new NPPs being rather high at present, continued operation of existing plants and eventually their lifetime extension are viable options for supporting the nuclear share in power generation. This is becoming especially important in view of the growing attention to the issue of global warming and the role of nuclear energy in greenhouse gas mitigation. This report is a review of information related to three cost categories that are part of such cost-benefit analysis: costs of safety upgrades for continued operation of a nuclear unit, costs of lifetime extension and costs of decommissioning. It can serve as a useful reference source for experts and decision makers involved in the economics of operating NPPs

  12. Prediction of the lifetime productive and reproductive performance of Holstein cows managed for different lactation durations, using a model of lifetime nutrient partitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaillard, Charlotte; Martin, O; Blavy, P

    2016-01-01

    The GARUNS model is a lifetime performance model taking into account the changing physiological priorities of an animal during its life and through repeated reproduction cycles. This dynamic and stochastic model has been previously used to predict the productive and reproductive performance...... of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the present paper, we used this model to predict the lifetime productive and reproductive performance of Holstein cows for different lactation durations, with the aim of determining the lifetime scenario that optimizes cows' performance defined...... by lifetime efficiency (ratio of total milk energy yield to total energy intake) and pregnancy rate. To evaluate the model, data from a 16-mo extended lactation experiment on Holstein cows were used. Generally, the model could consistently fit body weight, milk yield, and milk components of these cows...

  13. Attrition Cost Model Instruction Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagiura, Takeshi

    2012-01-01

    This instruction manual explains in detail how to use the Attrition Cost Model program, which estimates the cost of student attrition for a state's higher education system. Programmed with SAS, this model allows users to instantly calculate the cost of attrition and the cumulative attrition rate that is based on the most recent retention and…

  14. Cost Modeling for Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2011-01-01

    Parametric cost models are an important tool for planning missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper presents on-going efforts to develop single variable and multi-variable cost models for space telescope optical telescope assembly (OTA). These models are based on data collected from historical space telescope missions. Standard statistical methods are used to derive CERs for OTA cost versus aperture diameter and mass. The results are compared with previously published models.

  15. Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

    2015-01-01

    Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

  16. Modelling the cost effectiveness of antidepressant treatment in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revicki, D A; Brown, R E; Palmer, W; Bakish, D; Rosser, W W; Anton, S F; Feeny, D

    1995-12-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of nefazodone compared with imipramine or fluoxetine in treating women with major depressive disorder. Clinical decision analysis and a Markov state-transition model were used to estimate the lifetime health outcomes and medical costs of 3 antidepressant treatments. The model, which represents ideal primary care practice, compares treatment with nefazodone to treatment with either imipramine or fluoxetine. The economic analysis was based on the healthcare system of the Canadian province of Ontario, and considered only direct medical costs. Health outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were in 1993 Canadian dollars ($Can; $Can1 = $US0.75, September 1995). Incremental cost-utility ratios were calculated comparing the relative lifetime discounted medical costs and QALYs associated with nefazodone with those of imipramine or fluoxetine. Data for constructing the model and estimating necessary parameters were derived from the medical literature, clinical trial data, and physician judgement. Data included information on: Ontario primary care physicians' clinical management of major depression; medical resource use and costs; probabilities of recurrence of depression; suicide rates; compliance rates; and health utilities. Estimates of utilities for depression-related hypothetical health states were obtained from patients with major depression (n = 70). Medical costs and QALYs were discounted to present value using a 5% rate. Sensitivity analyses tested the assumptions of the model by varying the discount rate, depression recurrence rates, compliance rates, and the duration of the model. The base case analysis found that nefazodone treatment costs $Can1447 less per patient than imipramine treatment (discounted lifetime medical costs were $Can50,664 vs $Can52,111) and increases the number of QALYs by 0.72 (13.90 vs 13.18). Nefazodone treatment costs $Can14 less than fluoxetine

  17. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  18. Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1982-01-01

    New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

  19. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Michael G.

    1988-01-01

    Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

  20. Deployment-based lifetime optimization model for homogeneous Wireless Sensor Network under retransmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruiying; Liu, Xiaoxi; Xie, Wei; Huang, Ning

    2014-12-10

    Sensor-deployment-based lifetime optimization is one of the most effective methods used to prolong the lifetime of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) by reducing the distance-sensitive energy consumption. In this paper, data retransmission, a major consumption factor that is usually neglected in the previous work, is considered. For a homogeneous WSN, monitoring a circular target area with a centered base station, a sensor deployment model based on regular hexagonal grids is analyzed. To maximize the WSN lifetime, optimization models for both uniform and non-uniform deployment schemes are proposed by constraining on coverage, connectivity and success transmission rate. Based on the data transmission analysis in a data gathering cycle, the WSN lifetime in the model can be obtained through quantifying the energy consumption at each sensor location. The results of case studies show that it is meaningful to consider data retransmission in the lifetime optimization. In particular, our investigations indicate that, with the same lifetime requirement, the number of sensors needed in a non-uniform topology is much less than that in a uniform one. Finally, compared with a random scheme, simulation results further verify the advantage of our deployment model.

  1. HTGR Cost Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooler Reactor (HTGR) Cost Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Cost Model calculates an estimate of the capital costs, annual operating and maintenance costs, and decommissioning costs for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The user can generate these costs for multiple reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for a single or four-pack configuration; and for a reactor size of 350 or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Cost Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Cost Model. This model was design for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel. Modification of the HTGR Cost Model should only be performed by users familiar with Excel and Visual Basic.

  2. Video distribution system cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershkoff, I.; Haspert, J. K.; Morgenstern, B.

    1980-01-01

    A cost model that can be used to systematically identify the costs of procuring and operating satellite linked communications systems is described. The user defines a network configuration by specifying the location of each participating site, the interconnection requirements, and the transmission paths available for the uplink (studio to satellite), downlink (satellite to audience), and voice talkback (between audience and studio) segments of the network. The model uses this information to calculate the least expensive signal distribution path for each participating site. Cost estimates are broken downy by capital, installation, lease, operations and maintenance. The design of the model permits flexibility in specifying network and cost structure.

  3. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu

    2010-01-01

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair

  4. Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Florian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair and replacement activities as well as large revenue losses, mainly in the case of offshore wind farms. The recent development and evolution of condition monitoring techniques, as well as the fact that an increasing number of installed turbines are equipped with online monitoring systems, offers a large amount of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law approach. The model is used within a risk-based maintenance decision framework to optimize maintenance planning for the blades lifetime.

  5. Modeling and optimization of the lifetime of technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    1996-01-01

    Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova­ tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self­ organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important fea...

  6. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  7. Fuel Cell/ Super-capacitor power management system assessment and Lifetime Cost study in a 500kVA UPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imen Ben Amira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A 500 KVA Uninterruptible power supply (UPS using Fuel Cells (FC and super-capacitors (SCs was studied with the worst case of 10 minutes and eight hours of interruption per day. A power management system was established to control the FC and the SCs in order to extract the hybridization benefits with a comparison between a Proton exchange membrane FC (PEMFC working alone and another combined with SCs. Moreover, possible FC degradations were discussed. The start/stop cycling, the high-power loads and load changes degradations were taken into consideration in order to estimate the FC lifetime span using a prediction formula. Besides, the FC costs were studied to estimate the best average cost. Finally, the SCs filter constant time and their charging currents were revealed.

  8. The direct cost of traumatic secretion transfer in hermaphroditic land snails: individuals stabbed with a love dart decrease lifetime fecundity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Kazuki; Chiba, Satoshi

    2015-04-07

    Several taxa of simultaneously hermaphroditic land snails exhibit a conspicuous mating behaviour, the so-called shooting of love darts. During mating, such land snail species transfer a specific secretion by stabbing a mating partner's body with the love dart. It has been shown that sperm donors benefit from this traumatic secretion transfer, because the secretions manipulate the physiology of a sperm recipient and increase the donors' fertilization success. However, it is unclear whether reception of dart shooting is costly to the recipients. Therefore, the effect of sexual conflict and antagonistic arms races on the evolution of traumatic secretion transfer in land snails is still controversial. To examine this effect, we compared lifetime fecundity and longevity between the individuals that received and did not receive dart shooting from mating partners in Bradybaena pellucida. Our experiments showed that the dart-receiving snails suffered reduction in lifetime fecundity and longevity. These results suggest that the costly mating behaviour, dart shooting, generates conflict between sperm donors and recipients and that sexually antagonistic arms races have contributed to the diversification of the morphological and behavioural traits relevant to dart shooting. Our findings also support theories suggesting a violent escalation of sexual conflict in hermaphroditic animals. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  9. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Zhang, Qin Fen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chalise, Dol Raj [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Centurion, Emma E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost-estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  10. Solid rocket motor cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harney, A. G.; Raphael, L.; Warren, S.; Yakura, J. K.

    1972-01-01

    A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

  11. Interpreting aerosol lifetimes using the GEOS-Chem model and constraints from radionuclide measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Croft, B. [Dalhousie Univ., Halifax (Canada). Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science; Pierce, J.R. [Dalhousie Univ., Halifax (Canada). Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science; Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Martin, R.V. [Dalhousie Univ., Halifax (Canada). Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science; Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Aerosol removal processes control global aerosol abundance, but the rate of that removal remains uncertain. A recent study of aerosol-bound radionuclide measurements after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident documents {sup 137}Cs removal (e-folding) times of 10.0-13.9 days, suggesting that mean aerosol lifetimes in the range of 3-7 days in global models might be too short by a factor of two. In this study, we attribute this discrepancy to differences between the e-folding and mean aerosol lifetimes. We implement a simulation of {sup 137}Cs and {sup 133}Xe into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and examine the removal rates for the Fukushima case. We find a general consistency between modelled and measured e-folding times. The simulated {sup 137}Cs global burden e-folding time is about 14 days. However, the simulated mean lifetime of aerosol-bound {sup 137}Cs over a 6-month post-accident period is only 1.8 days. We find that the mean lifetime depends strongly on the removal rates in the first few days after emissions, before the aerosols leave the boundary layer and are transported to altitudes and latitudes where lifetimes with respect to wet removal are longer by a few orders of magnitude. We present sensitivity simulations that demonstrate the influence of differences in altitude and location of the radionuclides on the mean lifetime. Global mean lifetimes are shown to strongly depend on the altitude of injection. The global mean {sup 137}Cs lifetime is more than one order of magnitude greater for the injection at 7 km than into the boundary layer above the Fukushima site. Instantaneous removal rates are slower during the first few days after the emissions for a free tropospheric versus boundary layer injection and this strongly controls the mean lifetimes. Global mean aerosol lifetimes for the GEOS-Chem model are 3-6 days, which is longer than that for the {sup 137}Cs injected at the Fukushima site (likely due to precipitation shortly after

  12. Ship Repair Workflow Cost Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McDevitt, Mike

    2003-01-01

    The effects of intermittent work patterns and funding on the costs of ship repair and maintenance were modeled for the San Diego region in 2002 for Supervisor of Shipbuilding and Repair (SUPSHIP) San Diego...

  13. Strongest model-independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter

    CERN Document Server

    Audren, Benjamin; Mangano, Gianpiero; Serpico, Pasquale Dario; Tram, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Dark Matter is essential for structure formation in the late Universe so it must be stable on cosmological time scales. But how stable exactly? Only assuming decays into relativistic particles, we report an otherwise model independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter using current cosmological data. Since these decays affect only the low-$\\ell$ multipoles of the CMB, the Dark Matter lifetime is expected to correlate with the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ as well as curvature $\\Omega_k$. We consider two models, including $r$ and $r+\\Omega_k$ respectively, versus data from Planck, WMAP, WiggleZ and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, with or without the BICEP2 data (if interpreted in terms of primordial gravitational waves). This results in a lower bound on the lifetime of CDM given by 160Gyr (without BICEP2) or 200Gyr (with BICEP2) at 95% confidence level.

  14. Lifetime modelling with a Weibull law: comparison of three Bayesian Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billy, F.; Remy, E.; Bousquet, N.; Celeux, G.

    2006-01-01

    For a nuclear power plant, being able to estimate the lifetime of important components is strategic. But data is usually insufficient to do so. Thus, it is relevant to use expertise, together with data, in order to assess the value of lifetime on the grounds of both sources. The Bayesian frame and the choice of a Weibull law to model the random time for replacement are relevant. They have been chosen for this article. Two indicators are computed : the mean lifetime of any component and the mean residual lifetime of a given component, after it has been controlled. Three different Bayesian methods are compared on three sets of data. The article shows that the three methods lead to coherent results and that uncertainties are strongly reduced. The method developed around PMC has two main advantages: it models a conditional dependence of the two parameters of the Weibull law, which enables more coherent results on the prior; it has a parameter that weights the strength of the expertise. This last point is very important to do lifetime assessments, because then, expertise is not used to increase too small samples as much as to do a real extrapolation, far beyond what data itself say. (authors)

  15. Lifetime health effects and medical costs of integrated stroke services - a non-randomized controlled cluster-trial based life table approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirks Maaike

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Economic evaluation of stroke services indicates that such services may lead to improved quality of life at affordable cost. The present study assesses lifetime health impact and cost consequences of stroke in an integrated service setting. Methods The EDISSE study is a prospective non-randomized controlled cluster trial that compared stroke services (n = 151 patients to usual care (n = 187 patients. Health status and cost trial-data were entered in multi-dimensional stroke life-tables. The tables distinguish four levels of disability which are defined by the modified Rankin scale. Quality-of-life scores (EuroQoL-5D, transition and survival probabilities are based on concurrent Dutch follow-up studies. Outcomes are quality-adjusted life years lived and lifetime medical cost by disability category. An economic analysis compares outcomes from a successful stroke service to usual care, by bootstrapping individual costs and effects data from patients in each arm. Results Lifetime costs and QALYs after stroke depend on age-of-onset of first-ever stroke. Lifetime QALYs after stroke are 2.42 (90% CI - 0.49 - 2.75 for male patients in usual care and 2.75 (-0.61; 6.26 for females. Lifetime costs for men in the usual care setting are €39,335 (15,951; 79,837 and €42,944 (14,081; 95,944 for women. A comparison with the stroke service results in an ICER of €11,685 saved per QALY gained (€14,211 and €7,745 for men and women respectively. This stroke service is with 90% certainty cost-effective. Conclusions Our analysis shows the potential of large health benefits and cost savings of stroke services, taking a lifetime perspective, also in other European settings.

  16. A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

    2013-01-01

    Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

  17. A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

    2013-06-01

    Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

  18. Modeling of apparent activation energy and lifetime estimation in NAND flash memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyunghwan; Shin, Hyungcheol; Kang, Myounggon; Hwang, Yuchul

    2015-01-01

    Misunderstanding apparent activation energy (E aa ) can cause serious error in lifetime predictions. In this paper, the E aa is investigated for sub 20 nm NAND flash memory. In a high-temperature (HT) regime, the interface trap (N it ) recovery mechanism has the greatest impact on the charge loss. However, the values of E aa and E a(Nit) have a wide difference. Also, the lifetime of the device cannot be estimated by the Arrhenius model due to the E aa roll-off behavior. For the first time, we reveal the origin of abnormal characteristics on E aa and derive a mathematical formula for E aa as a function of each E a(mechanism) in NAND flash memory. Using the proposed E aa equation, the accurate lifetime for the device is estimated. (paper)

  19. PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Andy

    2017-03-15

    This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

  20. A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    As it is shown in Fig. 8, by increasing the buy size, the total cost of the system with a fixed EOS of 40 years and a fixed WACC of 3%, decreases...1000 uncertain demand event paths are considered in both analyses. For a 3% WACC , as illustrated in Fig. 9-a, the DES method gives an optimum buy size...consistency, other WACC values were tests as well. For example, for a 12% WACC , as illustrated in Fig. 9-b, the DES method gives an optimum buy size range

  1. Potential lifetime cost-effectiveness of catheter-based renal sympathetic denervation in patients with resistant hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorenkamp, Marc; Bonaventura, Klaus; Leber, Alexander W; Boldt, Julia; Sohns, Christian; Boldt, Leif-Hendrik; Haverkamp, Wilhelm; Frei, Ulrich; Roser, Mattias

    2013-02-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of catheter-based renal sympathetic denervation (RDN) for the treatment of resistant hypertension. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of this approach separately for men and women of different ages. A Markov state-transition model accounting for costs, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness was developed to compare RDN with best medical therapy (BMT) in patients with resistant hypertension. The model ran from age 30 to 100 years or death, with a cycle length of 1 year. The efficacy of RDN was modelled as a reduction in the risk of hypertension-related disease events and death. Analyses were conducted from a payer's perspective. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. When compared with BMT, RDN gained 0.98 QALYs in men and 0.88 QALYs in women 60 years of age at an additional cost of €2589 and €2044, respectively. As the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios increased with patient age, RDN consistently yielded more QALYs at lower costs in lower age groups. Considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35 000/QALY, there was a 95% probability that RDN would remain cost-effective up to an age of 78 and 76 years in men and women, respectively. Cost-effectiveness was influenced mostly by the magnitude of effect of RDN on systolic blood pressure, the rate of RDN non-responders, and the procedure costs of RDN. Renal sympathetic denervation is a cost-effective intervention for patients with resistant hypertension. Earlier treatment produces better cost-effectiveness ratios.

  2. Cost functions of greenhouse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    2000-01-01

    The benchmark is equal to the cost (D) caused by an increase in temperature since the middle of the nineteenth century (T) of nearly 2.5 deg. C. According to mainstream economists, the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, but very different estimates can also be found. Even though there appears to be agreement among a number of economists that the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, major differences exist when it comes to estimating D for different sectors. One of the main problems is how to estimate non-market activities. Normally, the benchmark is the best guess, but due to the possibility of catastrophic events this can be considerable smaller than the mean. Certainly, the cost function is skewed to the right. The benchmark is just one point on the cost curve. To a great extent, cost functions are alike in greenhouse models (D = α ''.T'' λ). Cost functions are region and sector dependent in several models. In any case, both α (benchmark) and λ are rough estimates. Besides being dependent on α and λ, the marginal emission cost depends on the discount rate. In fact, because emissions have effects continuing for many years, the discount rate is clearly the most important parameter. (au) (au)

  3. QUASARS ARE NOT LIGHT BULBS: TESTING MODELS OF QUASAR LIFETIMES WITH THE OBSERVED EDDINGTON RATIO DISTRIBUTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Hernquist, Lars

    2009-01-01

    We use the observed distribution of Eddington ratios as a function of supermassive black hole (BH) mass to constrain models of quasar/active galactic nucleus (AGN) lifetimes and light curves. Given the observed (well constrained) AGN luminosity function, a particular model for AGN light curves L(t) or, equivalently, the distribution of AGN lifetimes (time above a given luminosity t(>L)) translates directly and uniquely (without further assumptions) to a predicted distribution of Eddington ratios at each BH mass. Models for self-regulated BH growth, in which feedback produces a self-regulating 'decay' or 'blowout' phase after the AGN reaches some peak luminosity/BH mass and begins to expel gas and shut down accretion, make specific predictions for the light curves/lifetimes, distinct from, e.g., the expected distribution if AGN simply shut down by gas starvation (without feedback) and very different from the prediction of simple phenomenological 'light bulb' scenarios. We show that the present observations of the Eddington ratio distribution, spanning nearly 5 orders of magnitude in Eddington ratio, 3 orders of magnitude in BH mass, and redshifts z = 0-1, agree well with the predictions of self-regulated models, and rule out phenomenological 'light bulb' or pure exponential models, as well as gas starvation models, at high significance (∼5σ). We also compare with observations of the distribution of Eddington ratios at a given AGN luminosity, and find similar good agreement (but show that these observations are much less constraining). We fit the functional form of the quasar lifetime distribution and provide these fits for use, and show how the Eddington ratio distributions place precise, tight limits on the AGN lifetimes at various luminosities, in agreement with model predictions. We compare with independent estimates of episodic lifetimes and use this to constrain the shape of the typical AGN light curve, and provide simple analytic fits to these for use in

  4. Model of lifetime prediction - Study of the behaviour of polymers and organic matrix composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colin, X.

    2009-01-01

    The team 'Aging of Organic Materials' of the Process and Engineering Laboratory in Mechanics and Materials (Arts et Metiers, ParisTech) has developed the model of lifetime prediction for the prediction of the behaviour of polymers and organic composites. This model has already given evidence of a real predictive mean for various industrial applications, as for instance the prediction of a rupture under the coupled effect of a mechanical load and a chemical degradation. (O.M.)

  5. Resolving Nuclear Reactor Lifetime Extension Questions: A Combined Multiscale Modeling and Positron Characterization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirth, B; Asoka-Kumar, P; Denison, A; Glade, S; Howell, R; Marian, J; Odette, G; Sterne, P

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this work is to determine the chemical composition of nanometer precipitates responsible for irradiation hardening and embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steels, which threaten to limit the operating lifetime of nuclear power plants worldwide. The scientific approach incorporates computational multiscale modeling of radiation damage and microstructural evolution in Fe-Cu-Ni-Mn alloys, and experimental characterization by positron annihilation spectroscopy and small angle neutron scattering. The modeling and experimental results are

  6. Grid-connected polymer solar panels: initial considerations of cost, lifetime, and practicality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medford, Andrew J; Lilliedal, Mathilde R; Jørgensen, Mikkel; Aarø, Dennis; Pakalski, Heinz; Fyenbo, Jan; Krebs, Frederik C

    2010-09-13

    Large solar panels were constructed from polymer solar cell modules prepared using full roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacture based on the previously published ProcessOne. The individual flexible polymer solar modules comprising multiple serially connected single cell stripes were joined electrically and laminated between a 4 mm tempered glass window and black Tetlar foil using two sheets of 0.5 mm thick ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The panels produced up to 8 W with solar irradiance of ~960 Wm⁻², and had outer dimensions of 1 m x 1.7 m with active areas up to 9180 cm². Panels were mounted on a tracking station and their output was grid connected between testing. Several generations of polymer solar cells and panel constructions were tested in this context to optimize the production of polymer solar panels. Cells lacking a R2R barrier layer were found to degrade due to diffusion of oxygen after less than a month, while R2R encapsulated cells showed around 50% degradation after 6 months but suffered from poor performance due to de-lamination during panel production. A third generation of panels with various barrier layers was produced to optimize the choice of barrier foil and it was found that the inclusion of a thin protective foil between the cell and the barrier foil is critical. The findings provide a preliminary foundation for the production and optimization of large-area polymer solar panels and also enabled a cost analysis of solar panels based on polymer solar cells.

  7. Study of creep-fatigue behavior in a 1000 MW rotor using a phenomenological lifetime model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Nailong; Wang, Weizhe; Jiang, Jishen; Liu, Yingzheng [School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai (China)

    2017-02-15

    In this study, the phenomenological lifetime model was applied to part of an ultra-supercritical steam turbine rotor model to predict its lifetime as a post processing of the finite element method. To validate the accuracy and adaptation of the post processing program, stress strain hysteresis loops of a cylinderal model under service-like load cycle conditions in cycle N = 1 and 300 were constructed, and the comparison of the results with experimental data on the same cylinderal specimen showed them to be satisfactory. The temperature and von Mises stress distributions of the rotor during a startup-running-shutdown-natural cool process were numerically studied using ABAQUS and the damage caused by the interaction of creep and fatigue was subsequently computed and discussed. It was found that the maximum damage appeared at the inlet notch zone, with the blade groove areas and the front notch areas also suffering a large damage amplitude.

  8. A preliminary model for estimating the first wall lifetime of a fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daenner, W.

    1975-02-01

    The estimation of the first wall lifetime is a necessary basis for predicting the availability of a fusion power plant. In order to do this, an analytical model was prepared and programmed for the computer which calculates the temperature and stress load of the first wall from the principal design parameters and quotes them against the relevant material properties. Neither the analytical model nor the information about the material performance is yet complete so that the answers obtained from the program are very preliminary. This situation is underlined by the results of sample calculations performed for the CTRD blanket module cell. The results obtained for vanadium and vanadium alloys show a strong dependence of the lifetime on the irradiation creep and the ductility of these materials. Completion of this model is envisaged as soon as the missing information becomes available. (orig.) [de

  9. A Departmental Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holleman, Thomas, Jr.

    In establishing a departmental cost-effectiveness model, the traditional cost-effectiveness model was discussed and equipped with a distant and deflation equation for both benefits and costs. Next, the economics of costing was examined and program costing procedures developed. Then, the model construct was described as it was structured around the…

  10. Modelling impacts of performance on the probability of reproducing, and thereby on productive lifespan, allow prediction of lifetime efficiency in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong, H N; Blavy, P; Martin, O; Schmidely, P; Friggens, N C

    2016-01-01

    Reproductive success is a key component of lifetime efficiency - which is the ratio of energy in milk (MJ) to energy intake (MJ) over the lifespan, of cows. At the animal level, breeding and feeding management can substantially impact milk yield, body condition and energy balance of cows, which are known as major contributors to reproductive failure in dairy cattle. This study extended an existing lifetime performance model to incorporate the impacts that performance changes due to changing breeding and feeding strategies have on the probability of reproducing and thereby on the productive lifespan, and thus allow the prediction of a cow's lifetime efficiency. The model is dynamic and stochastic, with an individual cow being the unit modelled and one day being the unit of time. To evaluate the model, data from a French study including Holstein and Normande cows fed high-concentrate diets and data from a Scottish study including Holstein cows selected for high and average genetic merit for fat plus protein that were fed high- v. low-concentrate diets were used. Generally, the model consistently simulated productive and reproductive performance of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the French data, the model adequately simulated the reproductive performance of Holsteins but significantly under-predicted that of Normande cows. In the Scottish data, conception to first service was comparably simulated, whereas interval traits were slightly under-predicted. Selection for greater milk production impaired the reproductive performance and lifespan but not lifetime efficiency. The definition of lifetime efficiency used in this model did not include associated costs or herd-level effects. Further works should include such economic indicators to allow more accurate simulation of lifetime profitability in different production scenarios.

  11. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  12. Statistical Methods for Detecting and Modeling General Patterns and Relationships in Lifetime Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvaloey, Jan Terje

    1999-04-01

    In this thesis, the author tries to develop methods of detecting and modeling general patterns and relationships in lifetime data. Tests with power against nonmonotonic trends and nonmonotonic co variate effects are considered, and nonparametric regression methods which allow estimation of fairly general nonlinear relationships are studied. Practical uses of some of the methods are illustrated although in a medical rather than engineering or technological context.

  13. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  14. How Much? Cost Models for Online Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, George

    2001-01-01

    Reviews some of the research being done in the area of cost models for online education. Describes a cost analysis handbook; an activity-based costing model that was based on an economic model for traditional instruction at the Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis; and blending other costing models. (LRW)

  15. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  16. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

  17. Studies on Mathematical Models of Wet Adhesion and Lifetime Prediction of Organic Coating/Steel by Grey System Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fandi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

    2017-06-28

    A rapid degradation of wet adhesion is the key factor controlling coating lifetime, for the organic coatings under marine hydrostatic pressure. The mathematical models of wet adhesion have been studied by Grey System Theory (GST). Grey models (GM) (1, 1) of epoxy varnish (EV) coating/steel and epoxy glass flake (EGF) coating/steel have been established, and a lifetime prediction formula has been proposed on the basis of these models. The precision assessments indicate that the established models are accurate, and the prediction formula is capable of making precise lifetime forecasting of the coatings.

  18. Deriving estimates of individual variability in genetic potentials of performance traits for 3 dairy breeds, using a model of lifetime nutrient partitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phuong, H N; Martin, O; de Boer, I J M

    2015-01-01

    , body reserve usage, and growth for different genotypes of cow. Moreover, it can be used to separate genetic variability in performance between individual cows from environmental noise. The model enables simulation of the effects of a genetic selection strategy on lifetime efficiency of individual cows......, which has a main advantage of including the rearing costs, and thus, can be used to explore the impact of future selection on animal performance and efficiency....

  19. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  20. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Permana, Dony, E-mail: donypermana@students.itb.ac.id [Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia and Statistics Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Padang State University (Indonesia); Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S. [Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  1. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-01-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time

  2. Implementing a trustworthy cost-accounting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Jay; Seargeant, Dan

    2015-03-01

    Hospitals and health systems can develop an effective cost-accounting model and maximize the effectiveness of their cost-accounting teams by focusing on six key areas: Implementing an enhanced data model. Reconciling data efficiently. Accommodating multiple cost-modeling techniques. Improving transparency of cost allocations. Securing department manager participation. Providing essential education and training to staff members and stakeholders.

  3. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...

  4. Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

  5. Fluorescence lifetime imaging of endogenous molecules in live mouse cancer models (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svindrych, Zdenek; Wang, Tianxiong; Hu, Song; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2017-02-01

    NADH and FAD are important endogenous fluorescent coenzymes participating in key enzymatic reactions of cellular metabolism. While fluorescence intensities of NADH and FAD have been used to determine the redox state of cells and tissues, this simple approach breaks down in the case of deep-tissue intravital imaging due to depth- and wavelength-dependent light absorption and scattering. To circumvent this limitation, our research focuses on fluorescence lifetimes of two-photon excited NADH and FAD emission to study the metabolic state of live tissues. In our custom-built scanning microscope we combine tunable femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser (operating at 740 nm for NADH excitation and 890 nm for FAD excitation), two GaAsP hybrid detectors for registering individual fluorescence photons and two Becker and Hickl time correlator boards for high precision lifetime measurements. Together with our rigorous FLIM analysis approach (including image segmentation, multi-exponential decay fitting and detailed statistical analysis) we are able to detect metabolic changes in cancer xenografts (human pancreatic cancer MPanc96 cells injected subcutaneously into the ear of an immunodeficient nude mouse), relative to surrounding healthy tissue. Advantageously, with the same instrumentation we can also take high-resolution and high-contrast images of second harmonic signal (SHG) originating from collagen fibers of both the healthy skin and the growing tumor. The combination of metabolic measurements (NADH and FAD lifetime) and morphological information (collagen SHG) allows us to follow the tumor growth in live mouse model and the changes in tumor microenvironment.

  6. Electro-thermal Modeling for Junction Temperature Cycling-Based Lifetime Prediction of a Press-Pack IGBT 3L-NPC-VSC Applied to Large Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Senturk, Osman Selcuk; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Teodorescu, Remus

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is a critical criterion for multi-MW wind turbines, which are being employed with increasing numbers in wind power plants, since they operate under harsh conditions and have high maintenance cost due to their remote locations. In this study, the wind turbine grid-side converter...... reliability is investigated regarding IGBT lifetime based on junction temperature cycling for the grid-side press-pack IGBT 3L-NPC-VSC, which is a state-of-the art high reliability solution. In order to acquire IGBT junction temperatures for given wind power profiles and to use them in IGBT lifetime...... prediction, the converter electro-thermal model including electrical, power loss, and dynamical thermal models is developed with the main focus on the thermal modeling regarding converter topology, switch technology, and physical structure. Moreover, these models are simplified for their practical...

  7. Atmospheric Muon Lifetime, Standard Model of Particles and the Lead Stopping Power for Muons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutarra-Leon, Angel; Barazandeh, Cioli; Majewski, Walerian

    2017-01-01

    The muon is a fundamental particles of matter. It decays into three other leptons through an exchange of the weak vector bosons W +/W-. Muons are present in the atmosphere from cosmic ray showers. By detecting the time delay between arrival of the muon and an appearance of the decay electron in our detector, we'll measure muon's lifetime at rest. From the lifetime we should be able to find the ratio gw /MW of the weak coupling constant gw (a weak analog of the electric charge) to the mass of the W-boson MW. Vacuum expectation value v of the Higg's field, which determines the masses of all particles of the Standard Model (SM), could be then calculated from our muon experiment as v =2MWc2/gw =(τ m μc2/6 π3ĥ)1/4m μc2 in terms of muon mass mµand muon lifetime τ only. Using known experimental value for MWc2 = 80.4 GeV we'll find the weak coupling constant gw. Using the SM relation e =gwsin θ√ hc ɛ0 with the experimental value of the Z0-photon weak mixing angle θ = 29o we could find from our muon lifetime the value of the elementary electric charge e. We'll determine the sea-level fluxes of low-energy and high-energy cosmic muons, then we'll shield the detector with varying thicknesses of lead plates and find the energy-dependent muon stopping power in lead.

  8. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  9. Bayesian and Classical Estimation of Stress-Strength Reliability for Inverse Weibull Lifetime Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qixuan Bi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating stress-strength reliability for inverse Weibull lifetime models having the same shape parameters but different scale parameters. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution. Since the classical estimator doesn’t hold explicit forms, we propose an approximate maximum likelihood estimator. The asymptotic confidence interval and two bootstrap intervals are obtained. Using the Gibbs sampling technique, Bayesian estimator and the corresponding credible interval are obtained. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to generate random variates. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is performed.

  10. Temperature dependence of o-Ps annihilation lifetime in non-uniform cylindrical pores in comparison with ETE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaghani, Morteza, E-mail: m.khaghani@pgs.usb.ac.ir; Mehmandoost-Khajeh-Dad, Ali Akbar, E-mail: mehmandoost@phys.usb.ac.ir

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • Using the well known multi-physics program COMSOL calculating o-Ps annihilation lifetime in complex geometries. • Investigation of shape non-uniformity of cylindrical pores on o-Ps annihilation lifetime. • Verifying temperature dependency of o-Ps lifetime in non-uniform cylindrical pores. • Suggesting PALS at low temperature as a method to verify pore uniformity in porous material. - Abstract: Ortho-positronium (o-Ps) annihilation lifetime was calculated in non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores by solving Schrodinger equation using a well-known multi-physics program called COMSOL. The o-Ps annihilation lifetime variation in terms of temperature was calculated on the basis of ETE model via a numerical method. The COMSOL simulations indicate that as long as the pore is uniform cylinder-shaped, the results agree with those of two-dimensional ETE model, whereas deformations in the cylinder shape (indentation or protrusion) change the temperature behavior of ETE model and, thereby, higher values are predicted for o-Ps lifetime in the pore at lower temperatures. The geometry of the non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores, which is accompanied by empirical evidence, can be used for the analysis of empirical results obtained from positron lifetime spectroscopy in different temperatures.

  11. Maintenance cost models in deregulated power systems under opportunity costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Arfaj, K.; Dahal, K.; Azaiez, M.N.

    2007-01-01

    In a centralized power system, the operator is responsible for scheduling maintenance. There are different types of maintenance, including corrective maintenance; predictive maintenance; preventive maintenance; and reliability-centred maintenance. The main cause of power failures is poor maintenance. As such, maintenance costs play a significant role in deregulated power systems. They include direct costs associated with material and labor costs as well as indirect costs associated with spare parts inventory, shipment, test equipment, indirect labor, opportunity costs and cost of failure. In maintenance scheduling and planning, the cost function is the only component of the objective function. This paper presented the results of a study in which different components of maintenance costs were modeled. The maintenance models were formulated as an optimization problem with single and multiple objectives and a set of constraints. The maintenance costs models could be used to schedule the maintenance activities of power generators more accurately and to identify the best maintenance strategies over a period of time as they consider failure and opportunity costs in a deregulated environment. 32 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Lifetime modelling for MCrAlY coatings in industrial gas turbine blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krukovsky Pavel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel theoretical and experimental approach for lifetime modelling of MCrAlY coatings for stationary gas turbines has been undertaken using the Inverse Problem Solution (IPS technique. With this technique feasible experimental data acquired after a defined experimental time t e are used as input values for the model parameters estimation. In the first stage of the approach a model, based on the oxidation and diffusion processes (Fick's first and second law was assumed, which considers the Al concentration profile across the coating. The measured average Al concentration profiles in the two-phase g+b and g - regions of coating as well as base metal were used as input values for the model parameters estimation and calculational prediction of the long term diffusion and oxidation behavior of the coating was performed. The time, when the b-NiAl phase is completely consumed was assumed as the coating lifetime end. Exposure experiments were carried out with a NiCoCrAlY coating (200 micron thickness with 8% Al in air at 900 °C and 950 °C, currently up to 10000 h. The oxide scale is growing continuously and no other oxides were observed. The average and b-NiAl phase concentration profiles of Al across the coating thickness were determined by electron microprobe and image analysis systems in the initial state after 700 and 10000 h of oxidation. The concentration profile measured after 700 h was used as input values for the model parameters estimation in order to calculate the Al and b-NiAl phase concentration profiles after 10000 h. The computational forecast for 10000 h at 950 °C and 900 °C are in good agreement with the measured data. The approach was applied for NiCoCrAlY (200 micron thickness coating lifetime modelling at 950 °C and 900 °C as well as for different coating thicknesses at 950 °C.

  13. Model of electron lifetimes inside the plasmasphere calculated using a CRRES derived hiss wave amplitude model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlova, Ksenia; Spasojevic, Maria; Shprits, Yuri

    Particle populations in the inner magnetosphere can change by orders of magnitude on very short time scales. For the last decade observations and theoretical computations showed that resonant interaction of electrons with various plasma waves plays an important role in acceleration and loss mechanisms. Using data from the CRRES plasma wave experiment, we develop quadratic fits to the mean of the wave amplitude squared for plasmaspheric hiss as a function of geomagnetic activity (Kp) and magnetic latitude (lambda) for the dayside (6pitch-angle diffusion coefficients of energetic and relativistic electrons. We take into account the obliqueness of hiss waves and increase of plasmaspheric density with increasing magnetic latitude. The lifetimes of electrons are then calculated from the diffusion coefficients. The obtained lifetimes are parameterized as a function of energy, Kp-index, L-shell and can be used in 2D/3D/4D convection and particle tracing codes.

  14. Nuclear lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caraca, J.M.G.

    1976-01-01

    The importance of the results obtained in experiments of measurement of lifetimes for a detailed knowledge of nuclear structure is referred. Direct methods of measurement of nuclear lifetimes are described, namely, electronic methods, recoil-distance method, doppler shift atenuation method and blocking-method. A brief reference is made to indirect methods for measurement of life-times

  15. On production costs in vertical differentiation models

    OpenAIRE

    Dorothée Brécard

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse the effects of the introduction of a unit production cost beside a fixed cost of quality improvement in a duopoly model of vertical product differentiation. Thanks to an original methodology, we show that a low unit cost tends to reduce product differentiation and thus prices, whereas a high unit cost leads to widen product differentiation and to increase prices

  16. A model for predicting the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium nuclear waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shoesmith, D W; Ikeda, B M; Bailey, M G; Quinn, M J; LeNeveu, D M [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Pinawa, MB (Canada). Whiteshell Labs.

    1995-08-01

    The development of a model to predict the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium containers for nuclear fuel waste is described. This model assumes that the corrosion processes most likely to lead to container failure are crevice corrosion, hydrogen-induced cracking and general corrosion. Because of the expected evolution of waste vault conditions from initially warm (<{approx} 100 deg C) and oxidizing to eventually cool (<30 deg C) and non-oxiding, the period for which crevice corrosion can propagate will be limited by repassivation, and long container lifetimes will be achieved since the rate of general corrosion is extremely low. However, in the model presented, not only is it assumed that crevices will initiate rapidly on all containers, but also that the propagation of these crevices will continue indefinitely since conditions will remain sufficiently oxiding for repassivation to be avoided. The mathematical development of the model is described in detail. A simple ramped distribution is used to describe the failures due to the presence of initial defects. For crevice corrosion the propagation rates are assumed to be normally distributed and to be determined predominantly by temperature. The temperature dependence of the crevice propagation rate is determined from the calculated cooling profiles for the containers and an experimentally determined Arrhenius relationship for crevice propagation rates. The cooling profiles are approximated by double or single step functions, depending on the location of the container within the vault. The experimental data upon which this model is based is extensively reviewed. This review includes descriptions of the available data to describe and quantify the processes of general corrosion, crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking. For crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking the results of studies on both Grades-2 and -12 are presented. Also, the effects of impurities in the Grade-2 material are discussed.

  17. A model for predicting the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium nuclear waste containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; Bailey, M.G.; Quinn, M.J.; LeNeveu, D.M.

    1995-08-01

    The development of a model to predict the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium containers for nuclear fuel waste is described. This model assumes that the corrosion processes most likely to lead to container failure are crevice corrosion, hydrogen-induced cracking and general corrosion. Because of the expected evolution of waste vault conditions from initially warm (<∼ 100 deg C) and oxidizing to eventually cool (<30 deg C) and non-oxiding, the period for which crevice corrosion can propagate will be limited by repassivation, and long container lifetimes will be achieved since the rate of general corrosion is extremely low. However, in the model presented, not only is it assumed that crevices will initiate rapidly on all containers, but also that the propagation of these crevices will continue indefinitely since conditions will remain sufficiently oxiding for repassivation to be avoided. The mathematical development of the model is described in detail. A simple ramped distribution is used to describe the failures due to the presence of initial defects. For crevice corrosion the propagation rates are assumed to be normally distributed and to be determined predominantly by temperature. The temperature dependence of the crevice propagation rate is determined from the calculated cooling profiles for the containers and an experimentally determined Arrhenius relationship for crevice propagation rates. The cooling profiles are approximated by double or single step functions, depending on the location of the container within the vault. The experimental data upon which this model is based is extensively reviewed. This review includes descriptions of the available data to describe and quantify the processes of general corrosion, crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking. For crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking the results of studies on both Grades-2 and -12 are presented. Also, the effects of impurities in the Grade-2 material are discussed. Special attention is

  18. Development of a lifetime prediction model for lithium-ion batteries based on extended accelerated aging test data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecker, Madeleine; Gerschler, Jochen B.; Vogel, Jan; Käbitz, Stefan; Hust, Friedrich; Dechent, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2012-10-01

    Battery lifetime prognosis is a key requirement for successful market introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles. This work aims at the development of a lifetime prediction approach based on an aging model for lithium-ion batteries. A multivariable analysis of a detailed series of accelerated lifetime experiments representing typical operating conditions in hybrid electric vehicle is presented. The impact of temperature and state of charge on impedance rise and capacity loss is quantified. The investigations are based on a high-power NMC/graphite lithium-ion battery with good cycle lifetime. The resulting mathematical functions are physically motivated by the occurring aging effects and are used for the parameterization of a semi-empirical aging model. An impedance-based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model to simulate the dynamic interaction between aging of the battery and the thermal as well as electric behavior. Based on these models different drive cycles and management strategies can be analyzed with regard to their impact on lifetime. It is an important tool for vehicle designers and for the implementation of business models. A key contribution of the paper is the parameterization of the aging model by experimental data, while aging simulation in the literature usually lacks a robust empirical foundation.

  19. The 40 year deadline for the French nuclear stock. Decision process, strengthening option and costs associated with a possible lifetime extension beyond 40 years of EDF reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves

    2014-01-01

    This report first proposes an overview of the lifetime extension problematic (PLEX) for nuclear plants in a general context (strategy of lifetime extension, and uncertainty and lack of return on experience), and in the case of France (emergence of a strategy of lifetime extension, economic challenges of an extension, uncertainty on investments required by an extension, risk of imposed implicit decisions). It gives a rather detailed overview of the French nuclear reactor fleet, of the status of EDF-operated reactors (construction stages, main lifetime events, regulatory situation of currently exploited reactors) and of their characteristics (common operation principle, main components, main safety functions, main considered severe accidents). It addresses safety issues related to ageing and to the post-Fukushima re-assessment (problematic, robustness increase, limits and weaknesses of additional safety assessments). It presents the currently performed improvements (safety referential, applicable strengthening requirements like safety re-examinations and requirements introduced after Fukushima, applied strengthening prescriptions drawn from additional safety assessments or from the third decennial inspection, with their limitations and perspectives). It proposes strengthening scenarios along with their challenges (in terms of requirement level, procedure and agenda). Three scenarios are proposed (degraded safety, preserved safety, strengthened safety) and analysed in terms of protection against aggressions, diffuse robustness, prevention and management of reactor accident, prevention and management of pool accidents, ultimate control and assistance means. Scenarios are finally compared in terms of costs

  20. Preliminary Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Prince, F. Andrew; Smart, Christian; Stephens, Kyle; Henrichs, Todd

    2009-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. However, great care is required. Some space telescope cost models, such as those based only on mass, lack sufficient detail to support such analysis and may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Similarly, using ground based telescope models which include the dome cost will also lead to inaccurate conclusions. This paper reviews current and historical models. Then, based on data from 22 different NASA space telescopes, this paper tests those models and presents preliminary analysis of single and multi-variable space telescope cost models.

  1. The Shuttle Cost and Price model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Katherine; Stone, Barbara

    1983-01-01

    The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.

  2. Theory and models of material erosion and lifetime during plasma instabilities in a tokamak environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassanein, A.; Konkashbaev, I.

    1999-01-01

    Surface and structural damage to plasma-facing components (PFCs) due to the frequent loss of plasma confinement remains a serious problem for the tokamak reactor concept. The deposited plasma energy causes significant surface erosion, possible structural failure, and frequent plasma contamination. Surface damage consists of vaporization, spallation, and liquid splatter of metallic materials. Structural damage includes large temperature increases in structural materials and at the interfaces between surface coatings and structural members. To evaluate the lifetimes of plasma-facing materials and nearby components and to predict the various forms of damage that they experience, comprehensive models (contained in the HEIGHTS computer simulation package) are developed, integrated self-consistently, and enhanced. Splashing mechanisms such as bubble boiling and various liquid magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and brittle destruction mechanisms of nonmelting materials are being examined. The design requirements and implications of plasma-facing and nearby components are discussed, along with recommendations to mitigate and reduce the effects of plasma instabilities on reactor components

  3. Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

    2010-01-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  4. Parametric cost models for space telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtnay

    2017-11-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  5. Cost Concept Model and Gateway Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    This document introduces a Framework supporting the implementation of a cost concept model against which current and future cost models for curating digital assets can be benchmarked. The value built into this cost concept model leverages the comprehensive engagement by the 4C project with various...... to promote interoperability; • A Nested Model for Digital Curation—that visualises the core concepts, demonstrates how they interact and places them into context visually by linking them to A Cost and Benefit Model for Curation; This Framework provides guidance for data collection and associated calculations...

  6. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  7. Lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossan, D.B.; Warburton, E.K.

    1974-01-01

    Lifetime measurements are discussed, concentrating on the electronic technique, the recoil distance method (RDM), and the Doppler shift attenuation method (DSAM). A brief review of several indirect timing techniques is given, and their specific advantages and applicability are considered. The relationship between lifetimes of nuclear states and the nuclear structure information obtained from them is examined. A short discussion of channeling and microwave methods of lifetime measurement is presented. (23 figures, 171 references) (U.S.)

  8. Species abundance distributions in neutral models with immigration or mutation and general lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Amaury

    2011-07-01

    We consider a general, neutral, dynamical model of biodiversity. Individuals have i.i.d. lifetime durations, which are not necessarily exponentially distributed, and each individual gives birth independently at constant rate λ. Thus, the population size is a homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process (which is not necessarily a Markov process). We assume that types are clonally inherited. We consider two classes of speciation models in this setting. In the immigration model, new individuals of an entirely new species singly enter the population at constant rate μ (e.g., from the mainland into the island). In the mutation model, each individual independently experiences point mutations in its germ line, at constant rate θ. We are interested in the species abundance distribution, i.e., in the numbers, denoted I(n)(k) in the immigration model and A(n)(k) in the mutation model, of species represented by k individuals, k = 1, 2, . . . , n, when there are n individuals in the total population. In the immigration model, we prove that the numbers (I(t)(k); k ≥ 1) of species represented by k individuals at time t, are independent Poisson variables with parameters as in Fisher's log-series. When conditioning on the total size of the population to equal n, this results in species abundance distributions given by Ewens' sampling formula. In particular, I(n)(k) converges as n → ∞ to a Poisson r.v. with mean γ/k, where γ : = μ/λ. In the mutation model, as n → ∞, we obtain the almost sure convergence of n (-1) A(n)(k) to a nonrandom explicit constant. In the case of a critical, linear birth-death process, this constant is given by Fisher's log-series, namely n(-1) A(n)(k) converges to α(k)/k, where α : = λ/(λ + θ). In both models, the abundances of the most abundant species are briefly discussed.

  9. Personalized prediction of lifetime benefits with statin therapy for asymptomatic individuals: a modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart S Ferket

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD. However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1 a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2 color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men, statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2 and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4. Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. CONCLUSIONS: We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the

  10. Operating cost model for local service airlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J. L.; Andrastek, D. A.

    1976-01-01

    Several mathematical models now exist which determine the operating economics for a United States trunk airline. These models are valuable in assessing the impact of new aircraft into an airline's fleet. The use of a trunk airline cost model for the local service airline does not result in representative operating costs. A new model is presented which is representative of the operating conditions and resultant costs for the local service airline. The calculated annual direct and indirect operating costs for two multiequipment airlines are compared with their actual operating experience.

  11. Analysis and modeling of rail maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ali Bakhshi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Railroad maintenance engineering plays an important role on availability of roads and reducing the cost of railroad incidents. Rail is of the most important parts of railroad industry, which needs regular maintenance since it covers a significant part of total maintenance cost. Any attempt on optimizing total cost of maintenance could substantially reduce the cost of railroad system and it can reduce total cost of the industry. The paper presents a new method to estimate the cost of rail failure using different cost components such as cost of inspection and cost of risk associated with possible accidents. The proposed model of this paper is used for a real-world case study of railroad transportation of Tehran region and the results have been analyzed.

  12. NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Mrozinski, Joe; Fox, George

    2011-01-01

    NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

  13. Integrated modeling of software cost and quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rone, K.Y.; Olson, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between cost and quality must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. The balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and the developers with respect to the processes being employed

  14. Cyclic plasticity and lifetime of the nickel-based Alloy C-263: Experiments, models and component simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maier G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work deals with the thermomechanical fatigue and low-cycle fatigue behavior of C-263 in two different material conditions. Microstructural characteristics and fracture modes are investigated with light and electron microscopy. The experimental results indicate that viscoplastic deformations depend on the heat treatment or rather on the current state of the microstructure. The measured data are used to adjust the parameters of a Chaboche type model and a fracture-mechanics based model for fatigue lifetime prediction. The Chaboche model is able to describe the essential phenomena of time and temperature dependent cyclic plasticity including the complex cyclic hardening during thermo-cyclic loading of both material conditions with a unique set of material parameters. This could be achieved by including an additional internal variable into the Chaboche model which accounts for changes in the precipitation microstructure during high temperature loading. Furthermore, the proposed lifetime model is well suited for a common fatigue life prediction of both investigated heats. The deformation and lifetime models are implemented into a user defined material routine. In this work, the material routine is applied for the lifetime prediction of a critical power plant component using the finite element method.

  15. Lifetime of a spacecraft around a synchronous system of asteroids using a dipole model

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Leonardo Barbosa Torres; de Almeida Prado, Antonio F. Bertachini; Sanchez, Diogo Merguizo

    2017-11-01

    Space missions allow us to expand our knowledge about the origin of the solar system. It is believed that asteroids and comets preserve the physical characteristics from the time that the solar system was created. For this reason, there was an increase of missions to asteroids in the past few years. To send spacecraft to asteroids or comets is challenging, since these objects have their own characteristics in several aspects, such as size, shape, physical properties, etc., which are often only discovered after the approach and even after the landing of the spacecraft. These missions must be developed with sufficient flexibility to adjust to these parameters, which are better determined only when the spacecraft reaches the system. Therefore, conducting a dynamic investigation of a spacecraft around a multiple asteroid system offers an extremely rich environment. Extracting accurate information through analytical approaches is quite challenging and requires a significant number of restrictive assumptions. For this reason, a numerical approach to the dynamics of a spacecraft in the vicinity of a binary asteroid system is offered in this paper. In the present work, the equations of the Restricted Synchronous Four-Body Problem (RSFBP) are used to model a binary asteroid system. The main objective of this work is to construct grids of initial conditions, which relates semi-major axis and eccentricity, in order to quantify the lifetime of a spacecraft when released close to the less massive body of the binary system (modeled as a rotating mass dipole). We performed an analysis of the lifetime of the spacecraft considering several mass ratios of a binary system of asteroids and investigating the behavior of a spacecraft in the vicinity of this system. We analyze direct and retrograde orbits. This study investigated orbits that survive for at least 500 orbital periods of the system (which is approximately one year), then not colliding or escaping from the system during this

  16. Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae H.; Skelton, Robert E.

    1990-01-01

    Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

  17. Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elzey, Dana M.; Wadley, Haydn N. G.

    1996-01-01

    Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

  18. GUT scale threshold corrections in a complete supersymmetric SO(10) model: αs(MZ) versus proton lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, V.; Raby, S.

    1996-01-01

    We show that one-loop GUT scale threshold corrections to gauge couplings are a significant constraint on the GUT symmetry-breaking sector of the theory. The one-loop threshold corrections relate the prediction for α s (M Z ) to the proton lifetime. We have calculated these corrections in a new complete SO(10) SUSY GUT. The results are consistent with the low-energy measurement of α s (M Z ). We have also calculated the proton lifetime and branching ratios in this model. We show that proton decay rates provide a powerful test for theories of fermion masses. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  19. The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Frank A.; Hamaker, Joseph W. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to

  20. The Impact of Mission Profile Models on the Predicted Lifetime of IGBT Modules in the Modular Multilevel Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yi; Wang, Huai; Wang, Zhongxu

    2017-01-01

    and electrical power modeling methods on the estimated lifetime of IGBT modules in an MMC for offshore wind power application. In a 30 MW MMC case study, an annual wind speed profile with a resolution of 1 s/data, 10 minute/data, and 1 hour/data are considered, respectively. A method to re-generate higher......The reliability aspect study of Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) is of great interest in industry applications, such as offshore wind. Lifetime prediction of key components is an important tool to design MMC with fulfilled reliability specifications. While many efforts have been made...... to the lifetime prediction of IGBT modules in renewable energy applications by considering long-term varying operation conditions (i.e., mission profile), the justifications of using the associated mission profiles are still missed. This paper investigates the impact of mission profile data resolutions...

  1. Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

    2004-01-01

    A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

  2. Plural Governance: A Modified Transaction Cost Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mols, Niels Peter; Menard, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Plural governance is a form of governance where a firm both makes and buys similar goods or services. Despite a widespread use of plural governance there are no transaction cost models of how plural governance affects performance. This paper reviews the literature about plural forms and proposes...... a model relating transaction cost and resource-based variables to the cost of the plural form. The model is then used to analyze when the plural form is efficient compared to alternative governance structures. We also use the model to discuss the strength of three plural form synergies....

  3. LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-04-01

    This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

  4. Counting the costs of overweight and obesity: modeling clinical and cost outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Daniel M D; Palmer, Andrew J; Valentine, William J; Roze, Stéphane; Ray, Joshua A

    2006-03-01

    To quantify changes in clinical and cost outcomes associated with increasing levels of body mass index (BMI) in a US setting. A semi-Markov model was developed to project and compare life expectancy (LE), quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and direct medical costs associated with distinct levels of BMI in simulated adult cohorts over a lifetime horizon. Cohort definitions included age (20-65 years), gender, race, and BMI (24-45 kg m(-2)). Cohorts were exclusively male or female and either Caucasian or African-American. Mortality rates were adjusted according to these factors using published data. BMI progression over time was modeled. BMI-dependent US direct medical costs were derived from published sources and inflated to year 2004 values. A third party reimbursement perspective was taken. QALE and costs were discounted at 3% per annum. In young Caucasian cohorts LE decreased as BMI increased. However, in older Caucasian cohorts the BMI associated with greatest longevity was higher than 25 kg m(-2). A similar pattern was observed in young adult African-American cohorts. A survival paradox was projected in older African-American cohorts, with some BMI levels in the obese category associated with greatest longevity. QALE in all four race/gender cohorts followed similar patterns to LE. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that simulating BMI progression over time had an important impact on results. Direct costs in all four cohorts increased with BMI, with a few exceptions. Optimal BMI, in terms of longevity, varied between race/gender cohorts and within these cohorts, according to age, contributing to the debate over what BMI level or distribution should be considered ideal in terms of mortality risk. Simulating BMI progression over time had a substantial impact on health outcomes and should be modeled in future health economic analyses of overweight and obesity.

  5. Spectroscopy of 96-98Ru and neighboring nuclei: shell model calculations and lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharraja, B.; Garg, U.; Ghugre, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    High Spin states in 94,95 Mo, 94-96 Tc, 96-98 Ru and 97,98 Rh were populated via the 65 Cu( 36 S,xpyn) reactions at 142 MeV. Level schemes of these nuclei have been extended up to a spin of J ∼ 20ℎ and an excitation energy of E x ∼12 -14 MeV. Information on the high spin structure for 96 Tc and 98 Rh has been obtained for the first time. Spherical shell model calculations have been performed and compared with the experimental excitation energies. The level structures of the N=51, 52 isotones exhibit single-particle nature even at the highest spins and excitation energies. A fragmentation of intensity into several branches after breaking of the N = 50 core has been observed. There are indications for the onset of collectivity around neutron number N = 53 in this mass region. A sequence of E2 transitions, reminiscent of vibrational degree of freedom, were observed in 98 Ru at spins just above the observed N = 50 core breaking. RDM lifetime measurements have been performed to ascertain the intrinsic structures of these level sequences. (author)

  6. Quasiparticle energies and lifetimes in a metallic chain model of a tunnel junction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szepieniec, Mark; Yeriskin, Irene; Greer, J C

    2013-04-14

    As electronics devices scale to sub-10 nm lengths, the distinction between "device" and "electrodes" becomes blurred. Here, we study a simple model of a molecular tunnel junction, consisting of an atomic gold chain partitioned into left and right electrodes, and a central "molecule." Using a complex absorbing potential, we are able to reproduce the single-particle energy levels of the device region including a description of the effects of the semi-infinite electrodes. We then use the method of configuration interaction to explore the effect of correlations on the system's quasiparticle peaks. We find that when excitations on the leads are excluded, the device's highest occupied molecular orbital and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital quasiparticle states when including correlation are bracketed by their respective values in the Hartree-Fock (Koopmans) and ΔSCF approximations. In contrast, when excitations on the leads are included, the bracketing property no longer holds, and both the positions and the lifetimes of the quasiparticle levels change considerably, indicating that the combined effect of coupling and correlation is to alter the quasiparticle spectrum significantly relative to an isolated molecule.

  7. From Costs to Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2015-01-01

    This deliverable discusses business models for digital curation. It helps organisations to understand the requirements and drivers for curation services from a supplier and demand side. We investigated existing services and have developed guidelines to address new business opportunities...

  8. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonjes, David J., E-mail: david.tonjes@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States); Waste Reduction and Management Institute, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 (United States); Center for Bioenergy Research and Development, Advanced Energy Research and Technology Center, Stony Brook University, 1000 Innovation Rd., Stony Brook, NY 11794-6044 (United States); Mallikarjun, Sreekanth, E-mail: sreekanth.mallikarjun@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets.

  9. Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

  10. Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2012-01-01

    Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based...

  11. The COST model for calculation of forest operations costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ackerman, P.; Belbo, H.; Eliasson, L.; Jong, de J.J.; Lazdins, A.; Lyons, J.

    2014-01-01

    Since the late nineteenth century when high-cost equipment was introduced into forestry there has been a need to calculate the cost of this equipment in more detail with respect to, for example, cost of ownership, cost per hour of production, and cost per production unit. Machine cost calculations

  12. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support....... However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  13. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  14. Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Ian M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schiller, Steven R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Todd, Annika [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Billingsley, Megan A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa C. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from a national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.

  15. Automated cost modeling for coal combustion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, R.M.; Anast, K.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on cost information developed at AMAX R and D Center for coal-water slurry production implemented in an automated spreadsheet (Lotus 123) for personal computer use. The spreadsheet format allows the user toe valuate impacts of various process options, coal feedstock characteristics, fuel characteristics, plant location sites, and plant sizes on fuel cost. Model flexibility reduces time and labor required to determine fuel costs and provides a basis to compare fuels manufactured by different processes. The model input includes coal characteristics, plant flowsheet definition, plant size, and market location. Based on these inputs, selected unit operations are chosen for coal processing

  16. Computerized cost model for pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneely, T.K.; Tabata, Hiroaki; Labourey, P.

    1999-01-01

    A computerized cost model has been developed in order to allow utility users to improve their familiarity with pressurized water reactor overnight capital costs and the various factors which influence them. This model organizes its cost data in the standard format of the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB), and encapsulates simplified relationships between physical plant design information and capital cost information in a computer code. Model calculations are initiated from a base case, which was established using traditional cost calculation techniques. The user enters a set of plant design parameters, selected to allow consideration of plant models throughout the typical three- and four-loop PWR power range, and for plant sites in Japan, Europe, and the United States. Calculation of the new capital cost is then performed in a very brief time. The presentation of the program's output allows comparison of various cases with each other or with separately calculated baseline data. The user can start at a high level summary, and by selecting values of interest on a display grid show progressively more and more detailed information, including links to background information such as individual cost driver accounts and physical plant variables for each case. Graphical presentation of the comparison summaries is provided, and the numerical results may be exported to a spreadsheet for further processing. (author)

  17. Lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poletti, A.R.

    1976-01-01

    Recent developments in experimental methods of measuring the lifetimes of excited nuclear states is reviewed in three main areas. (a) Doppler Shift Attenuation Measurements (DSAM) Times: 10 -14 - 10 -11 sec.; (b) Recoil Distance Measurements (RDM) Times: 10 -9 - 10 -12 sec.; (c) Direct Electronic Timing Times: down to 10 -10 sec.; A measurement of an excited state lifetime can answer a large number of different questions. Two examples are discussed: (a) The determination of the lifetime of an isomeric transition in 93 Tc and its use in determining an upper limit for the magnitude of the parity non-conserving matrix element - /Hsub(PN)/17/2 + >. (b) The dependence of the strength of M2 transitions on isospin in nuclei in the 1dsub(3/2) -1fsub(7/2) region. (author)

  18. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  19. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Mary Alice

    2010-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC and A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC and A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC and A program. The MC and A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  20. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  1. An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delucchi, M A; Yang, C; Burke, A F; Ogden, J M; Kurani, K; Kessler, J; Sperling, D

    2014-01-13

    Concerns about climate change, urban air pollution and dependence on unstable and expensive supplies of foreign oil have led policy-makers and researchers to investigate alternatives to conventional petroleum-fuelled internal-combustion-engine vehicles in transportation. Because vehicles that get some or all of their power from an electric drivetrain can have low or even zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air pollutants, and can consume little or no petroleum, there is considerable interest in developing and evaluating advanced electric vehicles (EVs), including pure battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. To help researchers and policy-makers assess the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change and reduce petroleum use, this paper discusses the technology of EVs, the infrastructure needed for their development, impacts on emissions of GHGs, petroleum use, materials use, lifetime costs, consumer acceptance and policy considerations.

  2. Wind turbine blade life-time assessment model for preventive planning of operation and maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

  3. Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

  4. Desired lifetime and end-of-life desires across adulthood from 20 to 90: a dual-source information model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Frieder R; Baltes, Paul B; Wagner, Gert G

    2007-09-01

    How long do people want to live, and how does scientific research on aging affect such desires? A dual-source information model proposes that aging expectations and desires are informed differently by two sources: personal experiences on the one hand, and scientific and societal influences on the other. Two studies with independent German national samples explored desires regarding length of life and end of life among adults between the ages of 20 and 90. FINDINGS ARE: First, desired lifetime is consistent at around 85 years with few age differences. Second, experimental induction of good or bad news from research on aging has little effect in Study 1. Third, interest in science has moderating effects on desired lifetime in Study 2. Fourth, there is a high prevalence of a strong desire to control the "when and how" of one's death, although only 11% of the individuals completed a living will. Findings are consistent with the dual-source information model.

  5. Charmed particle lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosner, J.L.

    1979-01-01

    Conventional estimates are reviewed for charmed particle lifetimes. Free-quark models give values of (a few) x 10 -13 sec to (a few) x 10 -12 sec. The shorter of these values also follows from an extrapolation based on D → Ke/sup nu/. Possible differences among the lifetimes and production rates of D 0 , D + , F + , C 0 + , the heavy lepton tau, and the fifth quark b are discussed. Extreme values of mixing angles in a six-quark model could extend charmed particle lifetimes by a factor of at most three from the above estimates, while shorter lifetimes than those predicted could occur for some species like D 0 or F + if their nonleptonic decays were enhanced. The predictions are discussed in the light of some current experimental results, and it is estimated that sigma(pp → charm) approx. = 10 μb at 400 GeV/c. 95 references

  6. Lifetime Models for Lithium-ion Batteries used in Virtual Power Plant Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan

    ; however, because of their advantages, which include fast response, high efficiency, long lifetime and environmental friendliness, Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries represent suitable candidates for integration within VPPs, especially when they are required to provide short- and medium-time services....... The family of Li-ion batteries is broad with many different chemistries available at present on the market. Nonetheless, the Li-ion battery based on the lithium iron phosphate/graphite (further referred LFP/C) chemistry is investigated in this thesis. The lifetime of the Li-ion battery ESS represents a key...... parameter in the analysis of the economic feasibility of integrating such systems in WPPs. Even though their price is decreasing due to the research carried out mainly in the automotive sector, Li-ion batteries are still expensive energy storage devices. Therefore, accurate information about Li...

  7. The Lifetime Economic Burden of Inaccurate HER2 Testing: Estimating the Costs of False-Positive and False-Negative HER2 Test Results in US Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, Louis P; Babigumira, Joseph B; Masaquel, Anthony; Wang, Bruce C M; Lalla, Deepa; Brammer, Melissa

    2015-06-01

    Patients with breast cancer whose tumors test positive for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) are treated with HER2-targeted therapies such as trastuzumab, but limitations with HER2 testing may lead to false-positive (FP) or false-negative (FN) results. To develop a US-level model to estimate the effect of tumor misclassification on health care costs and patient quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Decision analysis was used to estimate the number of patients with early-stage breast cancer (EBC) whose HER2 status was misclassified in 2012. FP results were assumed to generate unnecessary trastuzumab costs and unnecessary cases of trastuzumab-related cardiotoxicity. FN results were assumed to save money on trastuzumab, but with a loss of QALYs and greater risk of disease recurrence and its associated costs. QALYs were valued at $100,000 under a net monetary benefit approach. Among 226,870 women diagnosed with EBC in 2012, 3.12% (n = 7,070) and 2.18% (n = 4,955) were estimated to have had FP and FN test results, respectively. Approximately 8400 QALYs (discounted, lifetime) were lost among women not receiving trastuzumab because of FN results. The estimated incremental per-patient lifetime burden of FP or FN results was $58,900 and $116,000, respectively. The implied incremental losses to society were $417 million and $575 million, respectively. HER2 tests result in misclassification and nonoptimal treatment of approximately 12,025 US patients with EBC annually. The total economic societal loss of nearly $1 billion suggests that improvements in HER2 testing accuracy are needed and that further clinical and economic studies are warranted. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model to Optimize Equipment Maintenance Resources Over Plant Lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Theodore A.; Perdue, Robert K.; Woodcock, Joel; Elder, G. Gary

    2002-01-01

    Experience has shown that proactive aging/asset management can best be defined as an ongoing process. Station goals directly supported by such a process include reducing Unplanned Capability Loss Factor and gaining the optimum value from maintenance and aging management budgets. An effective aging/asset management process must meet evolving and sometimes conflicting requirements for efficient and reliable nuclear power plant operation. The process should identify most likely contributors before they fail, and develop cost-effective contingencies. Current trends indicate the need for focused tools that give quantitative input to decision-making. Opposing goals, such as increasing availability while optimizing aging management budgets, must be balanced. Recognizing the importance of experience in reducing the uncertainty inherent in predicting equipment degradation rates, nuclear industry demographics suggest the need to capture existing expert knowledge in a usable form. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Process has been developed to address these needs. The proactive approach is a process supported by tools. The process identifies goals and develops criteria - including safety, costs, and power production - that are used to prioritize systems and equipment across the plant. The process then draws upon tools to most effectively meet the plant's goals. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model TM is one software-enabled tool designed for mathematical optimization. Results assist a plant in developing a plant-wide plan of aging management activities. This paper describes the proactive aging/asset management process and provides an overview of the methodology that has been incorporated in a model to perform a plant-wide optimization of aging management activities. (authors)

  9. Lifetimes of excited states in 196198Pt; application of interacting bason approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotin, H.H.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D.L.; Ryan, C.G.; Sie, S.H.

    1981-01-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 1 + levels in 196 198 Pt were determined by the rcoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198 Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220-MeV 58 Ni ion beams and the measurements carried out in coincidence with backscattered projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even 194 - 198 Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the Interacting Boson Approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force. Evaluative comparisons are also made with Boson Expansion Theory (BET) calculations

  10. Lifetimes of excited states in 196, 198Pt; Application of interacting boson approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotin, H. H.; Stuchbery, A. E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D. L.; Ryan, C. G.; Sie, S. H.

    1981-11-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 1+ levels in 196, 198Pt were determined by the recoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220 MeV 58Ni ion beams and the measurements were carried out in coincidence with back-scattered projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even 194-198Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force; evaluative comparisons are also made with boson expansion theory (BET) calculations.

  11. Lifetimes of excited states in 196,198Pt; application of interacting boson approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotin, H.H.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D.L.; Ryan, C.G.; Sie, S.H.

    1981-01-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 + 1 levels in sup(196, 198)Pt were determined by the recoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198 Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220 MeV 58 Ni ion beams and the measurements were carried out in coincidence with backscattering projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even sup(194-198)Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force; evaluative comparisons are also made with boson expansion theory (BET) calculations. (orig.)

  12. Hot carrier degradation and a new lifetime prediction model in ultra-deep sub-micron pMOSFET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei Xiao-Yi; Liu Hong-Xia; Zhang Kai; Zhang Yue; Zheng Xue-Feng; Ma Xiao-Hua; Hao Yue

    2013-01-01

    The hot carrier effect (HCE) of an ultra-deep sub-micron p-channel metal—oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor (pMOSFET) is investigated in this paper. Experiments indicate that the generation of positively charged interface states is the predominant mechanism in the case of the ultra-deep sub-micron pMOSFET. The relation of the pMOSFET hot carrier degradation to stress time (t), channel width (W), channel length (L), and stress voltage (V d ) is then discussed. Based on the relation, a lifetime prediction model is proposed, which can predict the lifetime of the ultra-deep sub-micron pMOSFET accurately and reflect the influence of the factors on hot carrier degradation directly. (condensed matter: electronic structure, electrical, magnetic, and optical properties)

  13. Degradation Behavior of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Lifetime Models and Field Measured Frequency Regulation Mission Profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Loan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stroe, Ana-Irina

    2016-01-01

    Energy storage systems based on Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have been proposed as an environmentally friendly alternative to traditional conventional generating units for providing grid frequency regulation. One major challenge regarding the use of Lithium-ion batteries in such applications...... is their higher cost—in comparison with other storage technologies or with the traditional frequency regulation methods—combined with performance-degradation uncertainties. In order to surpass this challenge and to allow for optimal sizing and proper operation of the battery, accurate knowledge about the lifetime...... of the Li-ion battery and its degradation behavior is required. Thus, this paper aims to investigate, based on a laboratory developed lifetime model, the degradation behavior of the performance parameters (i.e., capacity and power capability) of a Li-ion battery cell when it is subjected to a field measured...

  14. Fuel cycle model and the cost of a recycling thorium in the CANDU reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hangbok; Park, Chang Je

    2005-01-01

    The dry process fuel technology has a high proliferation-resistance, which allows applications not only to the existing but also to the future nuclear fuel cycle systems. In this study, the homogeneous ThO 2 -UO 2 recycling fuel cycle in a Canada deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactor was assessed for a fuel cycle cost evaluation. A series of parametric calculations were performed for the uranium fraction, enrichment of the initial uranium fuel, and the fission product removal rated of the recycled fuel. The fuel cycle cost was estimated by the levelized lifetime cost model provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency. Though it is feasible to recycle the homogeneous ThO 2 -UO 2 fuel in the CANDU reactor from the viewpoint of a mass balance, the recycling fuel cycle cost is much higher than the conventional natural uranium fuel cycle cost for most cases due to the high fuel fabrication cost. (author)

  15. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, L.E.; Cucinotta, F.A.

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/μm), 1 MeV α-particles (LET=100 keV/μm), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/μm) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 μm 2 . Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10 -2 % (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10 -3 %-0.514x10 -2 %). For α-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for

  16. Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fragoulakis V

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Vassilis Fragoulakis, Nikolaos ManiadakisNational School of Public Health, Department of Health Services Management, Athens, GreeceObjective: To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF in terms of net tax revenue from the state's perspective in Greece.Methods: Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1 early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2 employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3 retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed.Results: The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200. The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831. In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375, while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930. Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60

  17. User Delay Cost Model and Facilities Maintenance Cost Model for a Terminal Control Area : Volume 3. User's Manual and Program Documentation for the Facilities Maintenance Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-01

    The Facilities Maintenance Cost Model (FMCM) is an analytic model designed to calculate expected annual labor costs of maintenance within a given FAA maintenance sector. The model is programmed in FORTRAN IV and has been demonstrated on the CDC Krono...

  18. Modeling the fiscal costs and benefits of alternative treatment strategies in the United Kingdom for chronic hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Kotsopoulos, Nikos; Ustianowski, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes substantial direct health costs, but also impacts broader societal and governmental costs, such as tax revenue and social protection benefits. This study investigated the broader fiscal costs and benefits of curative interventions for chronic Hepatitis C (CHC) that allow individuals to avoid long-term HCV attributed health conditions. A prospective cohort model, assessing the long-term fiscal consequences of policy decisions, was developed for HCV infected individuals, following the generational accounting analytic framework that combines age-specific lifetime gross taxes paid and governmental transfers received (i.e. healthcare and social support costs). The analysis assessed the burden of a theoretical cohort of untreated HCV infected patients with the alternative of treating these patients with a highly efficacious curative intervention (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir [LDV/SOF]). It also compared treating patients at all fibrosis stages (Stages F0-F4) compared to late treatment (Stage F4). Based on projected lifetime work activity and taxes paid, the treated cohort paid an additional £5,900 per patient compared to the untreated cohort. Lifetime government disability costs of £97,555 and £125,359 per patient for treated cohort vs no treatment cohort were estimated, respectively. Lifetime direct healthcare costs in the treated cohort were £32,235, compared to non-treated cohort of £26,424, with an incremental healthcare costs increase of £5,901 per patient. The benefit cost ratio (BCR) of total government benefits and savings relative to government treatment costs (including LDV/SOF) ranged from 1.8-5.6. Treating patients early resulted in 77% less disability costs, 43% lower healthcare costs, and 33% higher tax revenue. The ability to cure Hepatitis C offers considerable fiscal benefits beyond direct medical costs and savings attributed to reduced disability costs, public allowances, and improved tax revenue. Changes in parameters

  19. Converter-level FEM simulation for lifetime prediction of an LED driver with improved thermal modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, H.; Wang, H.; Ye, X.

    2017-01-01

    application. A converter-level finite element simulation (FEM) simulation is carried out to obtain the ambient temperature of electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs used in the LED driver, which takes into account the impact of the driver enclosure and the thermal coupling among different components....... Therefore, the proposed method bridges the link between the global ambient temperature profile outside of the enclosure and the local ambient temperature profiles of the components of interest inside the driver. A quantitative comparison of the estimated annual lifetime consumptions of MOSFETs...

  20. NASA/Air Force Cost Model: NAFCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Sharon D.; Hamcher, John W. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The NASA/Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM) is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects and is primarily used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels.

  1. Coupled modeling of the competitive gettering of transition metals and impact on performance of lifetime sensitive devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Armin; Chen, Renyu; Dunham, Scott T.

    2017-03-01

    This work models competitive gettering of metals (Cu, Ni, Fe, Mo, and W) by boron, phosphorus, and dislocation loops, and connects those results directly to device performance. Density functional theory calculations were first performed to determine the binding energies of metals to the gettering sites, and based on that, continuum models were developed to model the redistribution and trapping of the metals. Our models found that Fe is most strongly trapped by the dislocation loops while Cu and Ni are most strongly trapped by the P4V clusters formed in high phosphorus concentrations. In addition, it is found that none of the mentioned gettering sites are effective in gettering Mo and W. The calculated metal redistribution along with the associated capture cross sections and trap energy levels are passed to device simulation via the recombination models to calculate carrier lifetime and the resulting device performance. Thereby, a comprehensive and predictive TCAD framework is developed to optimize the processing conditions to maximize performance of lifetime sensitive devices.

  2. Thermo-mechanical and neutron lifetime modelling and design of Be pebbles in the neutron multiplier for the LIFE engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMange, P.; Marian, J.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.

    2009-01-01

    Concept designs for the laser inertial fusion/fission energy (LIFE) engine include a neutron multiplication blanket containing Be pebbles flowing in a molten salt coolant. These pebbles must be designed to withstand the extreme irradiation and temperature conditions in the blanket to enable a reliable and cost-effective operation of LIFE. In this work, we develop design criteria for spherical Be pebbles on the basis of their thermo-mechanical behaviour under continued neutron exposure. We consider the effects of high fluence and fast fluxes on the elastic, thermal and mechanical properties of nuclear-grade Be. Our results suggest a maximum pebble diameter of 30 mm to avoid tensile failure, coated with an anti-corrosive, high-strength metallic shell to avoid failure by pebble contact. Moreover, we find that the operation temperature must always be kept above 450 deg. C to enable creep to relax the stresses induced by swelling. Under these circumstances, we estimate the pebble lifetime to be at least 16 months if uncoated, and up to six years when coated. We identify the sources of uncertainty on the properties used and discuss the advantages of new intermetallic beryllides and their use in LIFE's neutron multiplier. To establish Be-pebble lifetimes with improved confidence, reliable experiments to measure irradiation creep must be performed.

  3. Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lum, Karen; Hihn, Jairus; Menzies, Tim

    2006-01-01

    While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

  4. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  5. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  6. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares - IPEN/CNEN-SP Travessa R-400, 05508-900, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo (Brazil)

    2014-11-11

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model.

  7. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model

  8. Lifetime Economic Burden of Rape Among U.S. Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Cora; DeGue, Sarah; Florence, Curtis; Lokey, Colby N

    2017-06-01

    This study estimated the per-victim U.S. lifetime cost of rape. Data from previous studies was combined with current administrative data and 2011 U.S. National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey data in a mathematical model. Rape was defined as any lifetime completed or attempted forced penetration or alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration, measured among adults not currently institutionalized. Costs included attributable impaired health, lost productivity, and criminal justice costs from the societal perspective. Average age at first rape was assumed to be 18 years. Future costs were discounted by 3%. The main outcome measures were the average per-victim (female and male) and total population discounted lifetime cost of rape. Secondary outcome measures were marginal outcome probabilities among victims (e.g., suicide attempt) and perpetrators (e.g., incarceration) and associated costs. Analysis was conducted in 2016. The estimated lifetime cost of rape was $122,461 per victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.1 trillion (2014 U.S. dollars) over victims' lifetimes, based on data indicating >25 million U.S. adults have been raped. This estimate included $1.2 trillion (39% of total) in medical costs; $1.6 trillion (52%) in lost work productivity among victims and perpetrators; $234 billion (8%) in criminal justice activities; and $36 billion (1%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage. Government sources pay an estimated $1 trillion (32%) of the lifetime economic burden. Preventing sexual violence could avoid substantial costs for victims, perpetrators, healthcare payers, employers, and government payers. These findings can inform evaluations of interventions to reduce sexual violence. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Reduced cost mission design using surrogate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldhacker, Juliana D.; Jones, Brandon A.; Doostan, Alireza; Hampton, Jerrad

    2016-01-01

    This paper uses surrogate models to reduce the computational cost associated with spacecraft mission design in three-body dynamical systems. Sampling-based least squares regression is used to project the system response onto a set of orthogonal bases, providing a representation of the ΔV required for rendezvous as a reduced-order surrogate model. Models are presented for mid-field rendezvous of spacecraft in orbits in the Earth-Moon circular restricted three-body problem, including a halo orbit about the Earth-Moon L2 libration point (EML-2) and a distant retrograde orbit (DRO) about the Moon. In each case, the initial position of the spacecraft, the time of flight, and the separation between the chaser and the target vehicles are all considered as design inputs. The results show that sample sizes on the order of 102 are sufficient to produce accurate surrogates, with RMS errors reaching 0.2 m/s for the halo orbit and falling below 0.01 m/s for the DRO. A single function call to the resulting surrogate is up to two orders of magnitude faster than computing the same solution using full fidelity propagators. The expansion coefficients solved for in the surrogates are then used to conduct a global sensitivity analysis of the ΔV on each of the input parameters, which identifies the separation between the spacecraft as the primary contributor to the ΔV cost. Finally, the models are demonstrated to be useful for cheap evaluation of the cost function in constrained optimization problems seeking to minimize the ΔV required for rendezvous. These surrogate models show significant advantages for mission design in three-body systems, in terms of both computational cost and capabilities, over traditional Monte Carlo methods.

  10. Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-02

    Research NoteNational Security Rep rt PARAMETRIC MODELING FOR EARLY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT COST AND SCHEDULE Chuck...Alexander NSR_11x17_Cover_CostModeling_v8.indd 1 11/20/17 3:15 PM PARAMETRIC COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Chuck...COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT iii Contents Figures

  11. Cost Optimization of Product Families using Analytic Cost Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for analysing the cost structure of a mass customized product family. The method uses linear regression and backwards selection to reduce the complexity of a data set describing a number of historical product configurations and incurred costs. By reducing the data...... set, the configuration variables which best describe the variation in product costs are identified. The method is tested using data from a Danish manufacturing company and the results indicate that the method is able to identify the most critical configuration variables. The method can be applied...... in product family redesign projects focusing on cost reduction to identify which modules contribute the most to cost variation and should thus be optimized....

  12. Simulating star clusters with the AMUSE software framework. I. Dependence of cluster lifetimes on model assumptions and cluster dissolution modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitehead, Alfred J.; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; Vesperini, Enrico; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2013-01-01

    We perform a series of simulations of evolving star clusters using the Astrophysical Multipurpose Software Environment (AMUSE), a new community-based multi-physics simulation package, and compare our results to existing work. These simulations model a star cluster beginning with a King model distribution and a selection of power-law initial mass functions and contain a tidal cutoff. They are evolved using collisional stellar dynamics and include mass loss due to stellar evolution. After studying and understanding that the differences between AMUSE results and results from previous studies are understood, we explored the variation in cluster lifetimes due to the random realization noise introduced by transforming a King model to specific initial conditions. This random realization noise can affect the lifetime of a simulated star cluster by up to 30%. Two modes of star cluster dissolution were identified: a mass evolution curve that contains a runaway cluster dissolution with a sudden loss of mass, and a dissolution mode that does not contain this feature. We refer to these dissolution modes as 'dynamical' and 'relaxation' dominated, respectively. For Salpeter-like initial mass functions, we determined the boundary between these two modes in terms of the dynamical and relaxation timescales.

  13. Activity based costing model for inventory valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineet Chouhan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Activity-Based-Model (ABC is used for the purpose of significant improvement for overhead accounting systems by providing the best information required for managerial decision. This pa-per discusses implacability of ABC technique on inventory valuation as a management account-ing innovation. In order to prove the applicability of ABC for inventory control a material driven medium-sized and privately owned company from engineering (iron and steel industry is select-ed and by analysis of its production process and its material dependency and use of indirect in-ventory, an ABC model is explored for better inventory control. The case revealed that the ne-cessity of ABC in the area of inventory control is significant. The company is not only able to increase its quality of decision but also it can significantly analyze its cost of direct material cost, valuation of direct material and use its implications for better decision making.

  14. Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Garima

    2011-01-01

    NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

  15. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  16. Development of an EVA systems cost model. Volume 3: EVA systems cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The EVA systems cost model presented is based on proposed EVA equipment for the space shuttle program. General information on EVA crewman requirements in a weightless environment and an EVA capabilities overview are provided.

  17. Positron lifetimes in deformed copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinode, Kenji; Tanigawa, Shoichiro; Doyama, Masao

    1976-01-01

    Positron lifetime measurements were performed for Cu samples with different densities of lattice defects. The lifetime spectra were successfully resolved into two components with the help of the well established analysis program. Obtained results were quite consistent with those expected from the trapping model. The positron trapping mechanism from free to trapped states and the initial condition of the model were especially checked. Deduced values obtained for tau sub(c) (lifetime of free positrons) and tau sub(t) (lifetime of trapped positrons) were 122+-5 psec and 176+-5 psec, respectively. (auth.)

  18. Lifetime Costs and Outcomes of Repair of Tetralogy of Fallot Compared to Natural Progression of the Disease: Great Ormond Street Hospital Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Rachael Maree; Isaac, Mark; Frigiola, Alessandra; Blundell, David; Brown, Kate; Bull, Kate

    2013-01-01

    Background Tetralogy of Fallot is a congenital heart disease that requires surgical repair without which survival through childhood is extremely rare. The aim of this paper is to use data from the mandatory follow-up of patients with Tetralogy of Fallot to model the health-related costs and outcomes over the first 55-years of life. Method A decision analytical model was developed to establish costs and outcomes for patients up to 55 years after diagnosis and first repair of Tetralogy of Fallot compared to natural progression. Data from Adult Congenital Heart Disease (ACHD) centres that follow up Tetralogy of Fallot patients and Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), London, United Kingdom (UK) medical records was used to establish the cost and effectiveness of current interventions. Data from a Czech cohort was used for the natural, no intervention condition. Results The average cost per patient of a repair for Tetralogy of Fallot was £26,938 (SE = £4,140). The full life time cost per patient, with no discount rate, was £65,310 (95% CI £64,981–£65,729); £56,559 discounted (95% CI £56,159–£56,960). Patients with a repair had an average of 35 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per patient over 55 years undiscounted and 20.16 QALYs discounted. If the disorder was left to take its natural course, patients on average had a total of 3 QALYs per patient with no discount rate and 2.30 QALYs discounted. Conclusion A model has been developed that provides an estimate of the value for money of an expensive repair of a congenital heart disease. The model could be used to test the cost-effectiveness of making amendments to the care pathway. PMID:23533645

  19. Scale-invariant instantons and the complete lifetime of the standard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Anders; Frost, William; Schwartz, Matthew D.

    2018-03-01

    In a classically scale-invariant quantum field theory, tunneling rates are infrared divergent due to the existence of instantons of any size. While one expects such divergences to be resolved by quantum effects, it has been unclear how higher-loop corrections can resolve a problem appearing already at one loop. With a careful power counting, we uncover a series of loop contributions that dominate over the one-loop result and sum all the necessary terms. We also clarify previously incomplete treatments of related issues pertaining to global symmetries, gauge fixing, and finite mass effects. In addition, we produce exact closed-form solutions for the functional determinants over scalars, fermions, and vector bosons around the scale-invariant bounce, demonstrating manifest gauge invariance in the vector case. With these problems solved, we produce the first complete calculation of the lifetime of our Universe: 1 0139 years . With 95% confidence, we expect our Universe to last more than 1 058 years . The uncertainty is part experimental uncertainty on the top quark mass and on αs and part theory uncertainty from electroweak threshold corrections. Using our complete result, we provide phase diagrams in the mt/mh and the mt/αs planes, with uncertainty bands. To rule out absolute stability to 3 σ confidence, the uncertainty on the top quark pole mass would have to be pushed below 250 MeV or the uncertainty on αs(mZ) pushed below 0.00025.

  20. Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derwent, Richard G.; Parrish, David D.; Galbally, Ian E.; Stevenson, David S.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Naik, Vaishali; Young, Paul J.

    2018-05-01

    Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninety eight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although

  1. SOFTCOST - DEEP SPACE NETWORK SOFTWARE COST MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1994-01-01

    The early-on estimation of required resources and a schedule for the development and maintenance of software is usually the least precise aspect of the software life cycle. However, it is desirable to make some sort of an orderly and rational attempt at estimation in order to plan and organize an implementation effort. The Software Cost Estimation Model program, SOFTCOST, was developed to provide a consistent automated resource and schedule model which is more formalized than the often used guesswork model based on experience, intuition, and luck. SOFTCOST was developed after the evaluation of a number of existing cost estimation programs indicated that there was a need for a cost estimation program with a wide range of application and adaptability to diverse kinds of software. SOFTCOST combines several software cost models found in the open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms that compensate for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of the task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment, and difficulty of the task. SOFTCOST produces mean and variance estimates of software size, implementation productivity, recommended staff level, probable duration, amount of computer resources required, and amount and cost of software documentation. Since the confidence level for a project using mean estimates is small, the user is given the opportunity to enter risk-biased values for effort, duration, and staffing, to achieve higher confidence levels. SOFTCOST then produces a PERT/CPM file with subtask efforts, durations, and precedences defined so as to produce the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and schedule having the asked-for overall effort and duration. The SOFTCOST program operates in an interactive environment prompting the user for all of the required input. The program builds the supporting PERT data base in a file for later report generation or revision. The PERT schedule and the WBS schedule may be printed and stored in a

  2. Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Cochlear Implantation and Deaf Education in Nicaragua: A Disability Adjusted Life Year Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, James E; Barrs, David M; Gong, Wenfeng; Wilson, Blake S; Mojica, Karen; Tucci, Debara L

    2015-09-01

    Cochlear implantation (CI) is a common intervention for severe-to-profound hearing loss in high-income countries, but is not commonly available to children in low resource environments. Owing in part to the device costs, CI has been assumed to be less economical than deaf education for low resource countries. The purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of the two interventions for children with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in a model using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Cost estimates were derived from published data, expert opinion, and known costs of services in Nicaragua. Individual costs and lifetime DALY estimates with a 3% discounting rate were applied to both two interventions. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate the effect on the discounted cost of five key components: implant cost, audiology salary, speech therapy salary, number of children implanted per year, and device failure probability. The costs per DALY averted are $5,898 and $5,529 for CI and deaf education, respectively. Using standards set by the WHO, both interventions are cost effective. Sensitivity analysis shows that when all costs set to maximum estimates, CI is still cost effective. Using a conservative DALY analysis, both CI and deaf education are cost-effective treatment alternatives for severe-to-profound SNHL. CI intervention costs are not only influenced by the initial surgery and device costs but also by rehabilitation costs and the lifetime maintenance, device replacement, and battery costs. The major CI cost differences in this low resource setting were increased initial training and infrastructure costs, but lower medical personnel and surgery costs.

  3. Particle-particle correlations and lifetimes of composite nuclei: New tests for the evaporation model and for statistical equilibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeYoung, P.A.; Gelderloos, C.J.; Kortering, D.; Sarafa, J.; Zienert, K.; Gordon, M.S.; Fineman, B.J.; Gilfoyle, G.P.; Lu, X.; McGrath, R.L.; de Castro Rizzo, D.M.; Alexander, J.M.; Auger, G.; Kox, S.; Vaz, L.C.; Beck, C.; Henderson, D.J.; Kovar, D.G.; Vineyard, M.F.; Department of Physics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794; Department of Chemistry, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794; Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439)

    1990-01-01

    We present data for small-angle particle-particle correlations from the reactions 80, 140, 215, and 250 MeV 16 O+ 27 Al→p-p or p-d. The main features of these data are anticorrelations for small relative momenta (≤25 MeV/c) that strengthen with increasing bombarding energy. Statistical model calculations have been performed to predict the mean lifetimes for each step of evaporative decay, and then simulate the trajectories of the particle pairs and the resulting particle correlations. This simulation accounts very well for the trends of the data and can provide an important new test for the hypothesis of equilibration on which the model is built

  4. Groundwater age and lifetime expectancy modelling approach for site characterization and performance assessment of radwaste repository in clay formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornaton, F.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. A deep geological repository of high level and long lived radwaste requires an understanding of the far field and near field groundwater flow and of the transport properties, at actual and future climatic conditions. Andra, French National radioactive waste management Agency, is developing since last 15 years an integrated multi-scale hydrogeological model of whole Paris basin of 200000 km 2 of area (regional scale) to produce a regional flow field associated to groundwater behavior. It includes locally the Meuse/Haute Marne clay site of about 250 km 2 of area in the eastern part of the Paris basin that was chosen for the emplacement of a repository. The Callovo-Oxfordian host formation is a clay layer characterized by a very low permeability of the order 10 -14 m/s, a mean thickness of 130 m at about 500 m depth, and is embedded by calcareous aquifer formations (Dogger and Oxfordian). The hydrogeological conceptual model is based on stratigraphic and petro-physic modeling of the Paris basin and is accounting for the structural, geological, hydrogeological and geochemical data in an integrated way. This model represents 27 hydrogeological units at the scale of the Paris Basin, and it is refined at the scale of the sector to represent 27 different layers that range in age from the Trias to the Portlandian. The finite element flow and transport simulator Ground Water (GW) is used to solve for groundwater flow at steady-state in a 3 Million elements model, considering current climatic conditions. The model is calibrated against about 1250 hydraulic head measurements, and results in maximum absolute hydraulic head differences of 20 meters at the regional scale and 3 meters at the local scale. The calibrated reference model includes transmissive major faults as well as structures acting as barrier to flow. Groundwater age (the time elapsed since recharge) and lifetime expectancy (the time remaining prior to exit) are

  5. Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

    1996-08-01

    This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

  6. Automation life-cycle cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathmann, Thomas P.; Reeves, Arlinda J.; Cline, Rick; Henrion, Max; Ruokangas, Corinne

    1992-01-01

    The problem domain being addressed by this contractual effort can be summarized by the following list: Automation and Robotics (A&R) technologies appear to be viable alternatives to current, manual operations; Life-cycle cost models are typically judged with suspicion due to implicit assumptions and little associated documentation; and Uncertainty is a reality for increasingly complex problems and few models explicitly account for its affect on the solution space. The objectives for this effort range from the near-term (1-2 years) to far-term (3-5 years). In the near-term, the envisioned capabilities of the modeling tool are annotated. In addition, a framework is defined and developed in the Decision Modelling System (DEMOS) environment. Our approach is summarized as follows: Assess desirable capabilities (structure into near- and far-term); Identify useful existing models/data; Identify parameters for utility analysis; Define tool framework; Encode scenario thread for model validation; and Provide transition path for tool development. This report contains all relevant, technical progress made on this contractual effort.

  7. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Esteban Bardach

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer (CC and genital warts (GW are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. Methods A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Conclusions Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP per capita (104,404 VEF per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of

  8. Validation of the OpCost logging cost model using contractor surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conor K. Bell; Robert F. Keefe; Jeremy S. Fried

    2017-01-01

    OpCost is a harvest and fuel treatment operations cost model developed to function as both a standalone tool and an integrated component of the Bioregional Inventory Originated Simulation Under Management (BioSum) analytical framework for landscape-level analysis of forest management alternatives. OpCost is an updated implementation of the Fuel Reduction Cost Simulator...

  9. Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

  10. Animated-simulation modeling facilitates clinical-process costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, W N; Glick, N D; Blackmore, C C

    2001-09-01

    Traditionally, the finance department has assumed responsibility for assessing process costs in healthcare organizations. To enhance process-improvement efforts, however, many healthcare providers need to include clinical staff in process cost analysis. Although clinical staff often use electronic spreadsheets to model the cost of specific processes, PC-based animated-simulation tools offer two major advantages over spreadsheets: they allow clinicians to interact more easily with the costing model so that it more closely represents the process being modeled, and they represent cost output as a cost range rather than as a single cost estimate, thereby providing more useful information for decision making.

  11. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  12. Modeling the Unites States government's economic cost of noise-induced hearing loss for a military population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufts, Jennifer B; Weathersby, Paul K; Rodriguez, Francisco A

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of developing economic cost models for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). First, we outline an economic model of NIHL for a population of US Navy sailors with an "industrial"-type noise exposure. Next, we describe the effect on NIHL-related cost of varying the two central model inputs--the noise-exposure level and the duration of exposure. Such an analysis can help prioritize promising areas, to which limited resources to reduce NIHL-related costs should be devoted. NIHL-related costs borne by the US government were computed on a yearly basis using a finite element approach that took into account varying levels of susceptibility to NIHL. Predicted hearing thresholds for the population were computed with ANSI S3.44-1996 and then used as the basis for the calculation of NIHL-related costs. Annual and cumulative costs were tracked. Noise-exposure level and duration were systematically varied to determine their effects on the expected lifetime NIHL-related cost of a specific US Navy sailor population. Our nominal noise-exposure case [93 dB(A) for six years] yielded a total expected lifetime cost of US $13,472 per sailor, with plausible lower and upper bounds of US $2,500 and US $26,000. Starting with the nominal case, a decrease of 50% in exposure level or duration would yield cost savings of approximately 23% and 19%, respectively. We concluded that a reduction in noise level would be more somewhat more cost-effective than the same percentage reduction in years of exposure. Our economic cost model can be used to estimate the changes in NIHL-related costs that would result from changes in noise-exposure level and/or duration for a single military population. Although the model is limited at present, suggestions are provided for adapting it to civilian populations.

  13. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  14. Preliminary Multi-Variable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews the methodology used to develop space telescope cost models; summarizes recently published single variable models; and presents preliminary results for two and three variable cost models. Some of the findings are that increasing mass reduces cost; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years.

  15. The role of information in a lifetime process - a model of weight maintenance by women over long time periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judit Bar-Ilan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This paper proposes a model of information behaviour of women during their life-long struggle to maintain normal weight. Method. The model is integrative and contextual, built on existing models in information science and several other disciplines, and the life stories of about fifty Israeli women aged 25-55 and interviews with professionals. Analysis. The life stories of the participating women were analyzed qualitatively, major themes and phases were identified. Results. Weight loss and/or maintenance behaviour is a lifetime process in which distinctive stages were identified. In most cases the weight gain - weight loss - maintenance cycle is a recurring cycle. Information is a major resource during the process: several roles of information were defined: enabling, motivating, reinforcing, providing background information related to weight problems and creating the internal cognitive schema related to food and weight. Information behaviour and the roles of information vary with the different stages. Information needs are also influenced by the specific stage of the process. Information gathered at previous cycles is reused, and information gained through previous experience effects behaviour in the current cycle. Conclusion. The model has both theoretical and practical implications.

  16. A statistical regression model for the estimation of acrylamide concentrations in French fries for excess lifetime cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming-Jen; Hsu, Hui-Tsung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Ju, Wei-Yuan

    2012-10-01

    Human exposure to acrylamide (AA) through consumption of French fries and other foods has been recognized as a potential health concern. Here, we used a statistical non-linear regression model, based on the two most influential factors, cooking temperature and time, to estimate AA concentrations in French fries. The R(2) of the predictive model is 0.83, suggesting the developed model was significant and valid. Based on French fry intake survey data conducted in this study and eight frying temperature-time schemes which can produce tasty and visually appealing French fries, the Monte Carlo simulation results showed that if AA concentration is higher than 168 ppb, the estimated cancer risk for adolescents aged 13-18 years in Taichung City would be already higher than the target excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and that by taking into account this limited life span only. In order to reduce the cancer risk associated with AA intake, the AA levels in French fries might have to be reduced even further if the epidemiological observations are valid. Our mathematical model can serve as basis for further investigations on ELCR including different life stages and behavior and population groups. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Bacterial ice nuclei impact cloud lifetime and radiative properties and reduce atmospheric heat loss in the BRAMS simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Tassio S; Gonçalves, Fábio L T; Yamasoe, Marcia A; Martins, Jorge A; Morris, Cindy E

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the effect of the bacterial species Pseudomonas syringae acting as ice nuclei (IN) on cloud properties to understand its impact on local radiative budget and heating rates. These bacteria may become active IN at temperatures as warm as −2 °C. Numerical simulations were developed using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model System (BRAMS). To investigate the isolated effect of bacterial IN, four scenarios were created considering only homogeneous and bacterial ice nucleation, with 1, 10 and 100 IN per cubic meter of cloud volume and one with no bacteria. Moreover, two other scenarios were generated: the BRAMS default parameterization and its combination with bacterial IN. The model reproduced a strong convective cell over São Paulo on 3 March 2003. Results showed that bacterial IN may change cloud evolution as well as its microphysical properties, which in turn influence cloud radiative properties. For example, the reflected shortwave irradiance over an averaged domain in a scenario considering bacterial IN added to the BRAMS default parameterization was 14% lower than if bacteria were not considered. Heating rates can also be impacted, especially due to differences in cloud lifetime. Results suggest that the omission of bacterial IN in numerical models, including global cloud models, could neglect relevant ice nucleation processes that potentially influence cloud radiative properties. (letter)

  18. Wilderness Recreation Demand: A Comparison of Travel Cost and On-Site Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Bowker; A. Askew; L. Seymour; J.P. Zhu; D. English; C.M. Starbuck

    2009-01-01

    This study used travel cost and on-site day cost models, coupled with the Forest Service’s National Visitor Use Monitoring data, to examine the demand for and value of recreation access to designated Wilderness.

  19. ABC model and the management of costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pravdić Predrag

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available When a company has multiple objectives at the same time, they all must be considered and balanced when making any business decisions. Linking the markets, capital and resources so as to thus ensure the highest yield is, In fact, the search for competitive advantage as a basic condition for survival in a market economy. In highly detailed systems based on the management of costs or ABC (activity based costing systems, the cost of activities often result in erroneous evaluation of aggregate costs of the action. Improvements in information technology and monitoring decrease of technology costs enabled the ABC system to become a feasible system calculating costs in many organizations.

  20. Constraints from Airborne (210)Pb Observations on Aerosol Scavenging and Lifetime in a Global Chemical Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Fairlie, Duncan T.; Chen, Gao; Dibb, Jack E.; Shah, Viral; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    Lead-210 distribution and lifetime in the atmosphere are not sensitive to ice in-cloud scavenging in convective updraft. Ice in-cloud scavenging in stratiform clouds reduce tropospheric (210)Pb lifetime by approximately 1 day and results in better agreements with observed surface observations and aircraft measured profiles. However, the process results in significant underestimate of (210)Pb in UT/LS.

  1. Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.S. Ferket (Bart); B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); J. Heeringa (Jan); S. Spronk (Sandra); K.E. Fleischmann (Kirsten); R.L. Nijhuis (Rogier); A. Hofman (Albert); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes.

  2. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... will not only reduce the stress on estimators but also enhance the accuracy of cost estimates. The resulting 11 ... cost estimating process to work together to ..... construction estimators in Hong. Kong. Construction Management.

  3. ESTIMATION MODEL OF RESIDUAL LIFE-TIME OF LOCOMOTIVE FRAME BOGIE WITH ALLOWANCE FOR CREEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. Skalskyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The problem of determining the residual life of frame bogie elements of locomotives is a great importance for predicting their work safely and avoidance potential failures on the track. This especially concern cases when such elements have creep-fatigue cracks which grow under action of cyclic loading with excerpts T1 in the cycle and reach their critical size. Here the question of the propagation of such defects (cracks arises, their kinetics and about the period of subcritical cracks growth. The aim is to develop a calculation model for determination the period of subcritical creep-fatigue cracks growth in the bogies frames of electric locomotive. The model takes into account the basic parameters of load, geometry of the construction element and cracks. Methodology. The calculation model for determination the period of subcritical creep-fatigue cracks growth in structural elements of frame under conditions of variable load time has been formulated. It is based on the first law of thermodynamics concerning to mechanics of solids slow fracture at low temperature creep and variable loadings. It is assumed that the period of unsteady creep dominates here (the first section of the creep curve. Low-temperature creep is creep of materials at temperatures T0 < 0,5Tmp, where Tmp − the melting point of the material. Findings. The analytical formula for the determination of the stress intensity factor of truck bolster with technological hole has been obtained. It is shown that by experimentally established constants of the material using the proposed analytical relations can easily determine residual resource of the bogie frame elements. Originality. The new mathematical model for describing the kinetics of creep-fatigue cracks growth in the frames bogies of electric locomotive under variable in time loadings with various time excerpts and on this base the period determination of subcritical crack growth has been proposed. Practical value

  4. Preventative maintenance cycle of contact switches for nuclear power plants based on lifetime assessment and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Jie

    2010-01-01

    An approach to determine the preventive maintenance cycle was proposed in consideration of the lifetime, optimal cost and economy. Two parameters Weibull distribution was used to calculate the lifetime of contact switch. The block replacement model and age replacement model were built with the objective of optimal cost, and the preventive replacement cycle was accounted. Eight proposals for preventive replacement cycle were given. Economy model was applied to assess those proposals and the optimal proposal was confirmed. (authors)

  5. Measured lifetimes of states in 197Au and a critical comparison with the weak-coupling core-excitation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotin, H.H.; Kennedy, D.L.; Linard, B.J.; Stuchbery, A.E.

    1979-01-01

    The lifetimes of five excited states in 197 Au up to an excitation energy of 885 keV were measured by the recoil-distance method (RDM). These levels were populated by Coulomb excitation using both 90 MeV 20 Ne and 120 MeV 35 Cl ion beams. The experimentally determined spectroscopy of the low-lying levels 3/2 + (ground state) and 1/2 + , (3/2) + 2 , 5/2 + and 7/2 + at 77.3, 268.8, 278.9, and 547.5 keV excitation energy, respectively, has been critically compared with the detailed predictions of the de-Shalit weak-coupling core-excitation model. When the model is taken to represent the case of a dsub(3/2) proton hole coupled to a 198 Hg core, the model parameters obtained are in accord with the criteria implicit for weak core coupling and, at the same time, are in remarkably good agreement with virtually all measured E2 and M1 transition rates. (Auth.)

  6. Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

  7. SIRTF thermal design modifications to increase lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    An effort was made to increase the predicted lifetime of the SIRTF dewar by lowering the exterior shell temperature, increasing the radiated energy from the vapor cooled shields and reconfiguring the vapor cooled shields. The lifetime increases can be used to increase the scientific return from the mission and as a trade-off against mass and cost. This paper describes the configurations studied, the steady state thermal model used, the analytical methods and the results of the analysis. Much of the heat input to the outside dewar shell is radiative heat transfer from the solar panel. To lower the shell temperature, radiative cooled shields were placed between the solar panel and the dewar shell and between the bus and the dewar shell. Analysis showed that placing a radiator on the outer vapor cooled shield had a significant effect on lifetime. Lengthening the distance between the outer shell and the point where the vapor cooled shields are attached to the support straps also improved lifetime.

  8. Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deman, G.; Konakli, K.; Sudret, B.; Kerrou, J.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

    2016-01-01

    The study makes use of polynomial chaos expansions to compute Sobol' indices within the frame of a global sensitivity analysis of hydro-dispersive parameters in a simplified vertical cross-section of a segment of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Applying conservative ranges, the uncertainty in 78 input variables is propagated upon the mean lifetime expectancy of water molecules departing from a specific location within a highly confining layer situated in the middle of the model domain. Lifetime expectancy is a hydrogeological performance measure pertinent to safety analysis with respect to subsurface contaminants, such as radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the variability in the mean lifetime expectancy can be sufficiently explained by the uncertainty in the petrofacies, i.e. the sets of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, of only a few layers of the model. The obtained results provide guidance regarding the uncertainty modeling in future investigations employing detailed numerical models of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Moreover, the study demonstrates the high efficiency of sparse polynomial chaos expansions in computing Sobol' indices for high-dimensional models. - Highlights: • Global sensitivity analysis of a 2D 15-layer groundwater flow model is conducted. • A high-dimensional random input comprising 78 parameters is considered. • The variability in the mean lifetime expectancy for the central layer is examined. • Sparse polynomial chaos expansions are used to compute Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The petrofacies of a few layers can sufficiently explain the response variance.

  9. Operations and support cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    1994-01-01

    The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this annual report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center which documents the development of an operations and support (O&S) cost model as part of a larger life cycle cost (LCC) structure. It is intended for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of an operations and support life cycle cost model. Cost categories were initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. A revised cost element structure (CES), which is currently under study by NASA, was used to established the basic cost elements used in the model. While the focus of the effort was on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs, the computerized model allowed for other cost categories such as RDT&E and production costs to be addressed. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the costing model included support and upgrades to the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model. The primary result of the current research has been a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely operations and support cost analysis during the conceptual design activities.

  10. APT cost scaling: Preliminary indications from a Parametric Costing Model (PCM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    A Parametric Costing Model has been created and evaluate as a first step in quantitatively understanding important design options for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) concept. This model couples key economic and technical elements of APT in a two-parameter search of beam energy and beam power that minimizes costs within a range of operating constraints. The costing and engineering depth of the Parametric Costing Model is minimal at the present open-quotes entry levelclose quotes, and is intended only to demonstrate a potential for a more-detailed, cost-based integrating design tool. After describing the present basis of the Parametric Costing Model and giving an example of a single parametric scaling run derived therefrom, the impacts of choices related to resistive versus superconducting accelerator structures and cost of electricity versus plant availability (open-quotes load curveclose quotes) are reported. Areas of further development and application are suggested

  11. Establishment of primary cultures for mouse ameloblasts as a model of their lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzawa, Tetsuo; Itoh, Nao; Takahashi, Naoyuki; Katagiri, Takenobu; Morimura, Naoko; Kobayashi, Yasuna; Yamamoto, Toshinori; Kamijo, Ryutaro

    2006-01-01

    To understand how the properties of ameloblasts are spatiotemporally regulated during amelogenesis, two primary cultures of ameloblasts in different stages of differentiation were established from mouse enamel epithelium. Mouse primary ameloblasts (MPAs) prepared from immature enamel epithelium (MPA-I) could proliferate, whereas those from mature enamel epithelium (MPA-M) could not. MPA-M but not MPA-I caused apoptosis during culture. The mRNA expression of amelogenin, a marker of immature ameloblasts, was down-regulated, and that of enamel matrix serine proteiase-1, a marker of mature ameloblasts, was induced in MPA-I during culture. Using green fluorescence protein as a reporter, a visualized reporter system was established to analyze the promoter activity of the amelogenin gene. The region between -1102 bp and -261 bp was required for the reporter expression in MPA-I. These results suggest that MPAs are valuable in vitro models for investigation of ameloblast biology, and that the visualized system is useful for promoter analysis in MPAs

  12. Use of travel cost models in planning: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan Marsinko; William T. Zawacki; J. Michael Bowker

    2002-01-01

    This article examines the use of the travel cost, method in tourism-related decision making in the area of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation. A travel cost model of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation, developed by Zawacki, Maninko, and Bowker, is used as a case study for this analysis. The travel cost model estimates the demand for the activity...

  13. Degradation modeling and operational optimization for improving the lifetime of high-temperature PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jintae; Kim, Minjin; Kang, Taegon; Sohn, Young-Jun; Song, Taewon; Choi, Kyoung Hwan

    2014-01-01

    High-temperature PEMFCs (proton exchange membrane fuel cells) using PA (phosphoric acid)-doped PBI (polybenzimidazole) membranes have received attention as a potential solution to several of the issues with traditional low-temperature PEMFCs. However, the durability of high-temperature PEMFCs deteriorates rapidly with increasing temperature, although its performance improves. This characteristic makes it difficult to select the proper operating temperature to achieve its target lifetime. In this paper, to resolve this problem, models were developed to predict the performance and durability of the high-temperature PEMFC as a function of operating temperature. The optimal operating temperature was then determined for a variety of lifetimes. Theoretical model to estimate cell performance and empirical model to predict the degradation rate of cell performance were constructed, respectively. The prediction results of the developed models agreed well with the experimental data. From the simulation, we could obtain higher average cell performances by optimizing the operating temperature for the given target lifetime compared to the cell performance at some temperatures determined using an existing rule of thumb. It is expected that the proposed methodologies will lead to the more rapid commercialization of this technology in such applications as stationary and automotive fuel cell systems. - Highlights: • High-temperature PEMFCs (proton exchange membrane fuel cells). • Operational optimization for improving the lifetime. • Development of the degradation modeling for high-temperature PEMFCs

  14. A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poppe, Peter

    1999-01-01

    ...) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs...

  15. Preliminary Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews creating a preliminary multi-variable cost model for the contract costs of making a space telescope. There is discussion of the methodology for collecting the data, definition of the statistical analysis methodology, single variable model results, testing of historical models and an introduction of the multi variable models.

  16. Cost Analysis of Prenatal Care Using the Activity-Based Costing Model: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesse, Theresa; Golembeski, Susan; Potter, Jonell

    1999-01-01

    The cost of prenatal care in a private nurse-midwifery practice was examined using the activity-based costing system. Findings suggest that the activities of the nurse-midwife (the health care provider) constitute the major cost driver of this practice and that the model of care and associated, time-related activities influence the cost. This pilot study information will be used in the development of a comparative study of prenatal care, client education, and self care. PMID:22945985

  17. SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Paula Ferreira Alves; José Vanderlei Silva Borba; Gilberto Tavares dos Santos; Artur Roberto Gibbon

    2013-01-01

    One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974), Dias (1996), Goldratt (2002), Christopher (2007), Castiglioni (2009) and Borba & Gibbon (2009...

  18. Cost analysis of prenatal care using the activity-based costing model: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesse, T; Golembeski, S; Potter, J

    1999-01-01

    The cost of prenatal care in a private nurse-midwifery practice was examined using the activity-based costing system. Findings suggest that the activities of the nurse-midwife (the health care provider) constitute the major cost driver of this practice and that the model of care and associated, time-related activities influence the cost. This pilot study information will be used in the development of a comparative study of prenatal care, client education, and self care.

  19. Bayesian models for cost-effectiveness analysis in the presence of structural zero costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca

    2014-05-20

    Bayesian modelling for cost-effectiveness data has received much attention in both the health economics and the statistical literature, in recent years. Cost-effectiveness data are characterised by a relatively complex structure of relationships linking a suitable measure of clinical benefit (e.g. quality-adjusted life years) and the associated costs. Simplifying assumptions, such as (bivariate) normality of the underlying distributions, are usually not granted, particularly for the cost variable, which is characterised by markedly skewed distributions. In addition, individual-level data sets are often characterised by the presence of structural zeros in the cost variable. Hurdle models can be used to account for the presence of excess zeros in a distribution and have been applied in the context of cost data. We extend their application to cost-effectiveness data, defining a full Bayesian specification, which consists of a model for the individual probability of null costs, a marginal model for the costs and a conditional model for the measure of effectiveness (given the observed costs). We presented the model using a working example to describe its main features. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. A microscopic description of the S-wave πN-scattering lengths and the (pπ-)-atom lifetime in the quark confinement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Rusetskij, A.G.

    1989-01-01

    The S-wave πN-scattering lengths and the (pπ - )-atom lifetime are in the quark confinement model. Nucleon is treated as a quark-diquark system. The fulfillment of the Weinberg-Tomozawa relations is checked. The agreement is achieved with the experiment and with the results obtained within other approaches. 32 refs.; 5 figs.; 2 tabs

  1. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  2. Total life cycle cost model for electric power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardullo, M.W.

    1995-01-01

    The Total Life Cycle Cost (TLCC) model for electric power stations was developed to provide a technology screening model. The TLCC analysis involves normalizing cost estimates with respect to performance standards and financial assumptions and preparing a profile of all costs over the service life of the power station. These costs when levelized present a value in terms of a utility electricity rate. Comparison of cost and the pricing of the electricity for a utility shows if a valid project exists. Cost components include both internal and external costs. Internal costs are direct costs associated with the purchase, and operation of the power station and include initial capital costs, operating and maintenance costs. External costs result from societal and/or environmental impacts that are external to the marketplace and can include air quality impacts due to emissions, infrastructure costs, and other impacts. The cost stream is summed (current dollars) or discounted (constant dollars) to some base year to yield a overall TLCC of each power station technology on a common basis. While minimizing life cycle cost is an important consideration, it may not always be a preferred method for some utilities who may prefer minimizing capital costs. Such consideration does not always result in technology penetration in a marketplace such as the utility sector. Under various regulatory climates, the utility is likely to heavily weigh initial capital costs while giving limited consideration to other costs such as societal costs. Policy makers considering external costs, such as those resulting from environmental impacts, may reach significantly different conclusions about which technologies are most advantageous to society. The TLCC analysis model for power stations was developed to facilitate consideration of all perspectives

  3. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... cost-significant items, 15 priced bills of quantities of high rise office building pro ects executed or awarded in Nigeria between 2002 and 2011 were analysed. The study found that11 (29. %) out of 3 bill items were cost-significant accounting for 2.2% of total value of the work. The implication of the finding is ...

  4. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an awareness campaign for colorectal cancer: a mathematical modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyte, Sophie; Harnan, Susan

    2014-06-01

    A campaign to increase the awareness of the signs and symptoms of colorectal cancer (CRC) and encourage self-presentation to a GP was piloted in two regions of England in 2011. Short-term data from the pilot evaluation on campaign cost and changes in GP attendances/referrals, CRC incidence, and CRC screening uptake were available. The objective was to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a CRC awareness campaign by using a mathematical model which extrapolates short-term outcomes to predict long-term impacts on cancer mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs. A mathematical model representing England (aged 30+) for a lifetime horizon was developed. Long-term changes to cancer incidence, cancer stage distribution, cancer mortality, and QALYs were estimated. Costs were estimated incorporating costs associated with delivering the campaign, additional GP attendances, and changes in CRC treatment. Data from the pilot campaign suggested that the awareness campaign caused a 1-month 10 % increase in presentation rates. Based on this, the model predicted the campaign to cost £5.5 million, prevent 66 CRC deaths and gain 404 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to "no campaign" was £13,496 per QALY. Results were sensitive to the magnitude and duration of the increase in presentation rates and to disease stage. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cancer awareness campaign can be estimated based on short-term data. Such predictions will aid policy makers in prioritizing between cancer control strategies. Future cost-effectiveness studies would benefit from campaign evaluations reporting as follows: data completeness, duration of impact, impact on emergency presentations, and comparison with non-intervention regions.

  5. Capital Cost Optimization for Prefabrication: A Factor Analysis Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High capital cost is a significant hindrance to the promotion of prefabrication. In order to optimize cost management and reduce capital cost, this study aims to explore the latent factors and factor analysis evaluation model. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore potential variables and then questionnaire survey was employed to collect professionals’ views on their effects. After data collection, exploratory factor analysis was adopted to explore the latent factors. Seven latent factors were identified, including “Management Index”, “Construction Dissipation Index”, “Productivity Index”, “Design Efficiency Index”, “Transport Dissipation Index”, “Material increment Index” and “Depreciation amortization Index”. With these latent factors, a factor analysis evaluation model (FAEM, divided into factor analysis model (FAM and comprehensive evaluation model (CEM, was established. The FAM was used to explore the effect of observed variables on the high capital cost of prefabrication, while the CEM was used to evaluate comprehensive cost management level on prefabrication projects. Case studies were conducted to verify the models. The results revealed that collaborative management had a positive effect on capital cost of prefabrication. Material increment costs and labor costs had significant impacts on production cost. This study demonstrated the potential of on-site management and standardization design to reduce capital cost. Hence, collaborative management is necessary for cost management of prefabrication. Innovation and detailed design were needed to improve cost performance. The new form of precast component factories can be explored to reduce transportation cost. Meanwhile, targeted strategies can be adopted for different prefabrication projects. The findings optimized the capital cost and improved the cost performance through providing an evaluation and optimization model, which helps managers to

  6. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  7. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  8. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  9. The ASAC Flight Segment and Network Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Bruce J.; Lee, David A.; Retina, Nusrat; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Malone, Brett; Hall, Stephen G.; Houser, Scott A.

    1997-01-01

    To assist NASA in identifying research art, with the greatest potential for improving the air transportation system, two models were developed as part of its Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC Flight Segment Cost Model (FSCM) is used to predict aircraft trajectories, resource consumption, and variable operating costs for one or more flight segments. The Network Cost Model can either summarize the costs for a network of flight segments processed by the FSCM or can be used to independently estimate the variable operating costs of flying a fleet of equipment given the number of departures and average flight stage lengths.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of an HPV self-collection campaign in Uganda: comparing models for delivery of cervical cancer screening in a low-income setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, Nicole G; Tsu, Vivien; Jeronimo, Jose; Njama-Meya, Denise; Mvundura, Mercy; Kim, Jane J

    2017-09-01

    With the availability of a low-cost HPV DNA test that can be administered by either a healthcare provider or a woman herself, programme planners require information on the costs and cost-effectiveness of implementing cervical cancer screening programmes in low-resource settings under different models of healthcare delivery. Using data from the START-UP demonstration project and a micro-costing approach, we estimated the health and economic impact of once-in-a-lifetime HPV self-collection campaign relative to clinic-based provider-collection of HPV specimens in Uganda. We used an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model of the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer to estimate lifetime health and economic outcomes associated with screening with HPV DNA testing once in a lifetime (clinic-based provider-collection vs a self-collection campaign). Test performance and cost data were obtained from the START-UP demonstration project using a micro-costing approach. Model outcomes included lifetime risk of cervical cancer, total lifetime costs (in 2011 international dollars [I$]), and life expectancy. Cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). When both strategies achieved 75% population coverage, ICERs were below Uganda's per capita GDP (self-collection: I$80 per year of life saved [YLS]; provider-collection: I$120 per YLS). When the self-collection campaign achieved coverage gains of 15-20%, it was more effective than provider-collection, and had a lower ICER unless coverage with both strategies was 50% or less. Findings were sensitive to cryotherapy compliance among screen-positive women and relative HPV test performance. The primary limitation of this analysis is that self-collection costs are based on a hypothetical campaign but are based on unit costs from Uganda. Once-in-a-lifetime screening with HPV self-collection may be very cost-effective and reduce cervical cancer risk by > 20% if coverage is high

  11. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  12. Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Marijam, Alen; Tannus Branco de Araujo, Gabriela; Gomez, Jorge; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse

    Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2-6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach. To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE). Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model. Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced this ratio in Analysis 2. FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness). All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus

  13. Costs of health care across primary care models in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laberge, Maude; Wodchis, Walter P; Barnsley, Jan; Laporte, Audrey

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between newly introduced primary care models in Ontario, Canada, and patients' primary care and total health care costs. A specific focus is on the payment mechanisms for primary care physicians, i.e. fee-for-service (FFS), enhanced-FFS, and blended capitation, and whether providers practiced as part of a multidisciplinary team. Utilization data for a one year period was measured using administrative databases for a 10% sample selected at random from the Ontario adult population. Primary care and total health care costs were calculated at the individual level and included costs from physician services, hospital visits and admissions, long term care, drugs, home care, lab tests, and visits to non-medical health care providers. Generalized linear model regressions were conducted to assess the differences in costs between primary care models. Patients not enrolled with a primary care physicians were younger, more likely to be males and of lower socio-economic status. Patients in blended capitation models were healthier and wealthier than FFS and enhanced-FFS patients. Primary care and total health care costs were significantly different across Ontario primary care models. Using the traditional FFS as the reference, we found that patients in the enhanced-FFS models had the lowest total health care costs, and also the lowest primary care costs. Patients in the blended capitation models had higher primary care costs but lower total health care costs. Patients that were in multidisciplinary teams (FHT), where physicians are also paid on a blended capitation basis, had higher total health care costs than non-FHT patients but still lower than the FFS reference group. Primary care and total health care costs increased with patients' age, morbidity, and lower income quintile across all primary care payment types. The new primary care models were associated with lower total health care costs for patients compared to the

  14. A cost modelling system for cloud computing

    OpenAIRE

    Ajeh, Daniel; Ellman, Jeremy; Keogh, Shelagh

    2014-01-01

    An advance in technology unlocks new opportunities for organizations to increase their productivity, efficiency and process automation while reducing the cost of doing business as well. The emergence of cloud computing addresses these prospects through the provision of agile systems that are scalable, flexible and reliable as well as cost effective. Cloud computing has made hosting and deployment of computing resources cheaper and easier with no up-front charges but pay per-use flexible payme...

  15. Cost-effectiveness of a school-based health promotion program in Canada: A life-course modeling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Paul Ekwaru

    Full Text Available The Alberta Project Promoting active Living and healthy Eating in Schools (APPLE Schools has been recognized as a "best practice" in preventing childhood obesity. To inform decision making on the economic implications of APPLE Schools and to justify investment, we evaluated the project's cost-effectiveness following a life-course approach.We developed a state transition model for the lifetime progression of body weight status comparing elementary school students attending APPLE Schools and control schools. This model quantified the lifetime impact of APPLE Schools in terms of prevention of excess body weight, chronic disease and improved quality-adjusted life years (QALY, from a school system's cost perspective. Both costs and health outcomes were discounted to their present value using 3% discount rate.The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER of APPLE schools was CA$33,421 per QALY gained, and CA$1,555, CA$1,709 and CA$14,218 per prevented person years of excess weight, obesity and chronic disease, respectively. These estimates show that APPLE Schools is cost effective at a threshold of ICER < CA$50,000. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, APPLE Schools was cost effective more than 64% of the time per QALY gained, when using a threshold of ICERcost-effective intervention for obesity prevention and reduction of chronic disease risk over the lifetime. Expanding the coverage and allocating resources towards school-based programs like the APPLE Schools program, is likely to reduce the public health burden of obesity and chronic diseases.

  16. Cost-effectiveness of a school-based health promotion program in Canada: A life-course modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekwaru, John Paul; Ohinmaa, Arto; Tran, Bach Xuan; Setayeshgar, Solmaz; Johnson, Jeffrey A; Veugelers, Paul J

    2017-01-01

    The Alberta Project Promoting active Living and healthy Eating in Schools (APPLE Schools) has been recognized as a "best practice" in preventing childhood obesity. To inform decision making on the economic implications of APPLE Schools and to justify investment, we evaluated the project's cost-effectiveness following a life-course approach. We developed a state transition model for the lifetime progression of body weight status comparing elementary school students attending APPLE Schools and control schools. This model quantified the lifetime impact of APPLE Schools in terms of prevention of excess body weight, chronic disease and improved quality-adjusted life years (QALY), from a school system's cost perspective. Both costs and health outcomes were discounted to their present value using 3% discount rate. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER) of APPLE schools was CA$33,421 per QALY gained, and CA$1,555, CA$1,709 and CA$14,218 per prevented person years of excess weight, obesity and chronic disease, respectively. These estimates show that APPLE Schools is cost effective at a threshold of ICER Schools was cost effective more than 64% of the time per QALY gained, when using a threshold of ICERSchool-based health promotion, such as APPLE Schools is a cost-effective intervention for obesity prevention and reduction of chronic disease risk over the lifetime. Expanding the coverage and allocating resources towards school-based programs like the APPLE Schools program, is likely to reduce the public health burden of obesity and chronic diseases.

  17. Virtual Reference, Real Money: Modeling Costs in Virtual Reference Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eakin, Lori; Pomerantz, Jeffrey

    2009-01-01

    Libraries nationwide are in yet another phase of belt tightening. Without an understanding of the economic factors that influence library operations, however, controlling costs and performing cost-benefit analyses on services is difficult. This paper describes a project to develop a cost model for collaborative virtual reference services. This…

  18. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  19. Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    they breakdown costs. This is followed by an in depth analysis of stakeholders’ needs for financial information derived from the 4C project stakeholder consultation.The stakeholders’ needs analysis indicated that models should:• support accounting, but more importantly they should enable budgeting• be able......his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...

  20. Process-Improvement Cost Model for the Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyas, Sheila R; Greenfield, Eric; Messimer, Sherri; Thotakura, Swati; Gholston, Sampson; Doughty, Tracy; Hays, Mary; Ivey, Richard; Spalding, Joseph; Phillips, Robin

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this report is to present a simplified, activity-based costing approach for hospital emergency departments (EDs) to use with Lean Six Sigma cost-benefit analyses. The cost model complexity is reduced by removing diagnostic and condition-specific costs, thereby revealing the underlying process activities' cost inefficiencies. Examples are provided for evaluating the cost savings from reducing discharge delays and the cost impact of keeping patients in the ED (boarding) after the decision to admit has been made. The process-improvement cost model provides a needed tool in selecting, prioritizing, and validating Lean process-improvement projects in the ED and other areas of patient care that involve multiple dissimilar diagnoses.

  1. Construction cost forecast model : model documentation and technical notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Construction cost indices are generally estimated with Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indices that allow changes : in the quantities of construction bid items, as well as changes in price to change the cost indices of those items. : These cost indices...

  2. User Delay Cost Model and Facilities Maintenance Cost Model for a Terminal Control Area : Volume 1. Model Formulation and Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-01

    The User Delay Cost Model (UDCM) is a Monte Carlo computer simulation of essential aspects of Terminal Control Area (TCA) air traffic movements that would be affected by facility outages. The model can also evaluate delay effects due to other factors...

  3. Fluorescence lifetime imaging using light emitting diodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, Gordon T; Munro, Ian; Poher, Vincent; French, Paul M W; Neil, Mark A A [Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Elson, Daniel S [Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Hares, Jonathan D [Kentech Instruments Ltd, Unit 9, Hall Farm Workshops, South Moreton, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 9AG (United Kingdom)], E-mail: gordon.kennedy@imperial.ac.uk

    2008-05-07

    We demonstrate flexible use of low cost, high-power light emitting diodes as illumination sources for fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM). Both time-domain and frequency-domain techniques have been implemented at wavelengths spanning the range 450-640 nm. Additionally, we demonstrate optically sectioned fluorescence lifetime imaging by combining structured illumination with frequency-domain FLIM.

  4. Using non-empirically tuned range-separated functionals with simulated emission bands to model fluorescence lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Z C; Fan, W Y; Chwee, T S; Sullivan, Michael B

    2017-08-09

    Fluorescence lifetimes were evaluated using TD-DFT under different approximations for the emitting molecule and various exchange-correlation functionals, such as B3LYP, BMK, CAM-B3LYP, LC-BLYP, M06, M06-2X, M11, PBE0, ωB97, ωB97X, LC-BLYP*, and ωB97X* where the range-separation parameters in the last two functionals were tuned in a non-empirical fashion. Changes in the optimised molecular geometries between the ground and electronically excited states were found to affect the quality of the calculated lifetimes significantly, while the inclusion of vibronic features led to further improvements over the assumption of a vertical electronic transition. The LC-BLYP* functional was found to return the most accurate fluorescence lifetimes with unsigned errors that are mostly within 1.5 ns of experimental values.

  5. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  6. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  7. SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Ferreira Alves

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974, Dias (1996, Goldratt (2002, Christopher (2007, Castiglioni (2009 and Borba & Gibbon (2009, with little disclosure of the results. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the costs of supplies, applying a measurement model of logistics costs. Methodologically, the study characterized as exploratory. The model applied pointed, in original condition, that about R$ 2.5 million were being applied in the process of management of supplies, with replacement costs and storage imbalance. Upgrading the company's data, it is possible obtain a 52% reduction in costs to replace and store supplies. Thus, the cost model applied to logistical supplies showed feasibility of implementation, as well as providing information to assist in management and decision-making in logistics supply.

  8. A parametric costing model for wave energy technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the philosophy and technical approach to a parametric cost model for offshore wave energy systems. Consideration is given both to existing known devices and other devices yet to be conceptualised. The report is complementary to a spreadsheet based cost estimating model. The latter permits users to derive capital cost estimates using either inherent default data or user provided data, if a particular scheme provides sufficient design definition for more accurate estimation. The model relies on design default data obtained from wave energy device designs and a set of specifically collected cost data. (author)

  9. A Costing Model for Non Traditional Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knodle, L. L.

    To facilitate college and university officials in financing the eduational needs of the nontraditional students, a method for collecting and determining the cost of providing units of instruction through various delivery mechanisms available to colleges and universities is presented. Twelve ways of delivering instructional units, eight types of…

  10. The Susquehanna plant lifetime excellence program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNamara, R.W.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses how the Susquehanna plant lifetime excellence program (SPLEX) blends many of the objectives of a new managing for excellence program with plant life extension objectives to achieve excellence in the lifetime operation and availability of the two-unit Susquehanna steam electric station. Investments in lifetime excellence improvements will provide near-term, as well as plant life extension, benefits. A high-quality lifetime experience record, together with extensive, periodic technical assessments and cost-benefit analyses, will provide conclusive justification for future extensions of the unit operating licenses

  11. Lifetime-management and lifetime-extension at PAKS nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katona, Tamas; Ratkai, Sandor; Janosi, Agnes Biro

    2002-01-01

    core might be necessary with 50% probability. Annealing is not a cost critical method and it has been successfully applied in the practice of VVER plants (i.e. Finland and Slovakia). The study indicates that the steam generators are very important and critical equipment at VVER/440/213 type units. Stress corrosion cracking of heat-transfer tubes shall be considered also in case of steam generators. Considering the effects of already implemented measures, e.g. main turbine-condenser replacement, copper removing, protecting the secondary side of steam generators, replacement of steam generators can be excluded also in case of 50 years of operation. However, local corrosion effects appearing on the secondary side shall be monitored even in case of high PH water regime, transport of erosion products into the steam generator shall be minimised, for example by means of correct selection of the structural materials during replacement of high pressure preheaters. Business model of the lifetime extension covered incomes, expenses and financing. The costs of plant life management and lifetime extension have been estimated conservatively. The market conditions, including liberalisation of the electrical power market have been taken into account. The business analysis shows that the plant lifetime extension is a reasonable business decision. Based on the results of the feasibility study and the public acceptance of extended operation NPP Paks launched a project to elaborate on the plant lifetime management programme and preparation of the necessary licence renewal. The current ageing-management programme of the Paks NPP shall be reviewed and extended to the required scope of SSC (passive long living items). Programme for maintaining the environmental qualification of equipment has to be elaborated on and implemented. Simultaneous to the preparation of the license renewal new requirements shall be implemented in the field of maintenance, also. The plant lifetime extension might

  12. Decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to compare prostate cryotherapy to androgen deprivation therapy for treatment of radiation recurrent prostate cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Kathleen A; Jones, Rob J; Paul, Jim; Birrell, Fiona; Briggs, Andrew H; Leung, Hing Y

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of salvage cryotherapy (SC) in men with radiation recurrent prostate cancer (RRPC). Design Cost-utility analysis using decision analytic modelling by a Markov model. Setting and methods Compared SC and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in a cohort of patients with RRPC (biopsy proven local recurrence, no evidence of metastatic disease). A literature review captured published data to inform the decision model, and resource use data were from the Scottish Prostate Cryotherapy Service. The model was run in monthly cycles for RRPC men, mean age of 70 years. The model was run over the patient lifetime, to assess changes in patient health states and the associated quality of life, survival and cost impacts. Results are reported in terms of the discounted incremental costs and discounted incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained between the 2 alternative interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis used a 10 000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Results SC has a high upfront treatment cost, but delays the ongoing monthly cost of ADT. SC is the dominant strategy over the patient lifetime; it is more effective with an incremental 0.56 QALY gain (95% CI 0.28 to 0.87), and less costly with a reduced lifetime cost of £29 719 (€37 619) (95% CI −51 985 to −9243). For a ceiling ratio of £30 000, SC has a 100% probability to be cost-effective. The cost neutral point was at 3.5 years, when the upfront cost of SC (plus any subsequent cumulative cost of side effects and ADT) equates the cumulative cost in the ADT arm. Limitations of our model may arise from its insensitivity to parameter or structural uncertainty. Conclusions The platform for SC versus ADT cost-effective analysis can be employed to evaluate other treatment modalities or strategies in RRPC. SC is the dominant strategy, costing less over a patient's lifetime with improvements in QALYs. Trial registration number This economic analysis

  13. Fixed transaction costs and modelling limited dependent variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hempenius, A.L.

    1994-01-01

    As an alternative to the Tobit model, for vectors of limited dependent variables, I suggest a model, which follows from explicitly using fixed costs, if appropriate of course, in the utility function of the decision-maker.

  14. Analysis of financial cost models of strategic planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vorobev Aleksei Viacheslavovich

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the cost of financial models for strategic planning. Shows the strengths and weaknesses of the model, economic value added EVA (Economic Value Added. Necessity of further development of methods for determining financial policy priorities.

  15. process setting models for the minimization of costs defectives

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    determine the mean setting so as to minimise the total loss through under-limit complaints and loss of sales and goodwill as well as over-limit losses through excess materials and rework costs. Models are developed for the two types of setting of the mean so that the minimum costs of losses are achieved. Also, a model is ...

  16. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  17. Bus Lifecycle Cost Model for Federal Land Management Agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    The Bus Lifecycle Cost Model is a spreadsheet-based planning tool that estimates capital, operating, and maintenance costs for various bus types over the full lifecycle of the vehicle. The model is based on a number of operating characteristics, incl...

  18. A maintenance and operations cost model for DSN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, R. W.; Kirkbride, H. L.

    1977-01-01

    A cost model for the DSN is developed which is useful in analyzing the 10-year Life Cycle Cost of the Bent Pipe Project. The philosophy behind the development and the use made of a computer data base are detailed; the applicability of this model to other projects is discussed.

  19. An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

  20. Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Han P.; Freeman, William (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to

  1. A RECREATION OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON THE TRAVEL COST METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    Hof, John G.; Loomis, John B.

    1983-01-01

    A recreation allocation model is developed which efficiently selects recreation areas and degree of development from an array of proposed and existing sites. The model does this by maximizing the difference between gross recreation benefits and travel, investment, management, and site-opportunity costs. The model presented uses the Travel Cost Method for estimating recreation benefits within an operations research framework. The model is applied to selection of potential wilderness areas in C...

  2. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  3. Composite Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Estimating Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    X. The masked fit of the lines are as follows: • Part Count Percentage Reduction for Design hours ( HRE %) = • Part Count Percentage Reduction...multiplied by the respective labor rate (LR). Currently, CT is a percentage of total non- recurring development cost. HRE corresponds to recurring...Empty Weight Velocity RENGR HRE CRE 46 Figure 14: Non-Recurring Engineering CER Currently, CT is a percentage of non-recurring development

  4. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  5. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  6. Modeling of Control Costs, Emissions, and Control Retrofits for Cost Effectiveness and Feasibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about EPA’s use of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop estimates of SO2 and NOx emission control costs, projections of futureemissions, and projections of capacity of future control retrofits, assuming controls on EGUs.

  7. On Developments in the Mean Joint Lifetimes of Three- and Four-Generation Families in Western and Eastern Germany – A model Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Grünheid

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article tackles the question of how, on the one hand, the high life expectancy and, on the other, the increasing age of mothers at childbirth will impact the joint lifetime of three and four generations and will develop in future. To this end, indicators are derived from the official data on mortality and fertility for the mean joint lifetimes of three- and four-generation families. Because of the complicated data available, the investigation will be restricted to the female succession of generations, and here to an observation of the first-born child in each case. The indicators act as model calculations, which is why they serve above all to indicate (future developments in mean joint lifetimes. The indicators are calculated for the average jointly-spent lifetime of three-generation families for the period from 1990 to 2060, and of four-generation families for the period from 2010 to 2060. The result of the calculations for Western Germany show an increase in the jointly-spent lifetime of three generations of up to roughly 35 years in 2000, after which that the figure falls continually to a value of roughly 30 years. A similarly developing trend emerges for four generations, but this is delayed by roughly 30 years towards the future, and reaches the highest value around 2030 to 2040, at roughly seven to ten years. For Eastern Germany, with its even younger age of women at childbirth in both the past and in the present, the maximum jointly-spent life years of three generations at the beginning of the observation period (roughly around 1990 is almost 40 years, after which this indicator falls continuously. The indicator of the average jointly-spent years of four-generation families, by contrast, probably reaches a maximum around 2020, with a value of 12 to 14 years. Also after this, one may anticipate a reduction in the joint lifetimes of four-generation families in Eastern Germany. All in all, the trends of the indicators denote that one

  8. Waste management facilities cost information: System cost model product description. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundeen, A.S.; Hsu, K.M.; Shropshire, D.E.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities

  9. Overview of SDCM - The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferebee, Melvin J.; Farmer, Jeffery T.; Andersen, Gregory C.; Flamm, Jeffery D.; Badi, Deborah M.

    1988-01-01

    The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model (SDCM) is a computer-aided design and analysis tool for synthesizing spacecraft configurations, integrating their subsystems, and generating information concerning on-orbit servicing and costs. SDCM uses a bottom-up method in which the cost and performance parameters for subsystem components are first calculated; the model then sums the contributions from individual components in order to obtain an estimate of sizes and costs for each candidate configuration within a selected spacecraft system. An optimum spacraft configuration can then be selected.

  10. Batteries 2020 – Lithium - ion battery first and second life ageing, validated battery models, lifetime modelling and ageing assessment of thermal parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timmermans, Jean-Marc; Nikolian, Alexandros; De Hoog, Joris

    2016-01-01

    The European Project “Batteries 2020” unites nine partners jointly working on research and the development of competitive European automotive batteries. The project aims at increasing both the energy density and lifetime of large format pouch lithium-ion batteries towards the goals targeted...... vehicle application. These batteries are still operational and suitable to less restrictive conditions, such as those for stationary and renewable energy application. Therefore, possible second life opportunities have been identified and further assessed. In this paper, the main ageing effects of lithium...... ion batteries are explained. Next, an overview of different validated battery models will be discussed. Finally, a methodology for assessing the performance of the battery cells in a second life application is presented....

  11. Renewable Energy Cost Modeling. A Toolkit for Establishing Cost-Based Incentives in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gifford, Jason S. [Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC, Framington, MA (United States); Grace, Robert C. [Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC, Framington, MA (United States); Rickerson, Wilson H. [Meister Consultants Group, Inc., Boston, MA (United States)

    2011-05-01

    This report serves as a resource for policymakers who wish to learn more about levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculations, including cost-based incentives. The report identifies key renewable energy cost modeling options, highlights the policy implications of choosing one approach over the other, and presents recommendations on the optimal characteristics of a model to calculate rates for cost-based incentives, FITs, or similar policies. These recommendations shaped the design of NREL's Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST), which is used by state policymakers, regulators, utilities, developers, and other stakeholders to assist with analyses of policy and renewable energy incentive payment structures. Authored by Jason S. Gifford and Robert C. Grace of Sustainable Energy Advantage LLC and Wilson H. Rickerson of Meister Consultants Group, Inc.

  12. Development of an integrated cost model for nuclear plant decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amos, G.; Roy, R.

    2003-01-01

    A need for an integrated cost estimating tool for nuclear decommissioning and associated waste processing and storage facilities for Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) was defined during the authors recent MSc studies. In order to close the defined gap a prototype tool was developed using logically derived CER's and cost driver variables. The challenge in developing this was to be able to produce a model that could produce realistic cost estimates from the limited levels of historic cost data that was available for analysis. The model is an excel based tool supported by 3 point risk estimating output and is suitable for producing estimates for strategic or optional cost estimates (±30%) early in the conceptual stage of a decommissioning project. The model was validated using minimal numbers of case studies supported by expert opinion discussion. The model provides an enhanced approach for integrated decommissioning estimates which will be produced concurrently with strategic options analysis on a nuclear site

  13. Lifetime earnings for physicians across specialties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, J Paul; Tancredi, Daniel; Jerant, Anthony; Romano, Patrick S; Kravitz, Richard L

    2012-12-01

    Earlier studies estimated annual income differences across specialties, but lifetime income may be more relevant given physicians' long-term commitments to specialties. Annual income and work hours data were collected from 6381 physicians in the nationally representative 2004-2005 Community Tracking Study. Data regarding years of residency were collected from AMA FREIDA. Present value models were constructed assuming 3% discount rates. Estimates were adjusted for demographic and market covariates. Sensitivity analyses included 4 alternative models involving work hours, retirement, exogenous variables, and 1% discount rate. Estimates were generated for 4 broad specialty categories (Primary Care, Surgery, Internal Medicine and Pediatric Subspecialties, and Other), and for 41 specific specialties. The estimates of lifetime earnings for the broad categories of Surgery, Internal Medicine and Pediatric Subspecialties, and Other specialties were $1,587,722, $1,099,655, and $761,402 more than for Primary Care. For the 41 specific specialties, the top 3 (with family medicine as reference) were neurological surgery ($2,880,601), medical oncology ($2,772,665), and radiation oncology ($2,659,657). The estimates from models with varying rates of retirement and including only exogenous variables were similar to those in the preferred model. The 1% discount model generated estimates that were roughly 150% larger than the 3% model. There was considerable variation in the lifetime earnings across physician specialties. After accounting for varying residency years and discounting future earnings, primary care specialties earned roughly $1-3 million less than other specialties. Earnings' differences across specialties may undermine health reform efforts to control costs and ensure adequate numbers of primary care physicians.

  14. The System Cost Model: A tool for life cycle cost and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, K.; Lundeen, A.; Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors began development of the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing waste management facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new TSD facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. A complement to the SCM is the System Cost Model-Risk (SCM-R) model, which provides relative Environmental, Safety, and Health (ES and H) risk information. A relative ES and H risk basis has been developed and applied by LITCO at the INEL. The risk basis is now being automated in the SCM-R to facilitate rapid risk analysis of system alternatives. The added risk functionality will allow combined cost and risk evaluation of EM alternatives

  15. Systematic review of model-based analyses reporting the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiovascular disease management programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maru, Shoko; Byrnes, Joshua; Whitty, Jennifer A; Carrington, Melinda J; Stewart, Simon; Scuffham, Paul A

    2015-02-01

    The reported cost effectiveness of cardiovascular disease management programs (CVD-MPs) is highly variable, potentially leading to different funding decisions. This systematic review evaluates published modeled analyses to compare study methods and quality. Articles were included if an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) or cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was reported, it is a multi-component intervention designed to manage or prevent a cardiovascular disease condition, and it addressed all domains specified in the American Heart Association Taxonomy for Disease Management. Nine articles (reporting 10 clinical outcomes) were included. Eight cost-utility and two cost-effectiveness analyses targeted hypertension (n=4), coronary heart disease (n=2), coronary heart disease plus stoke (n=1), heart failure (n=2) and hyperlipidemia (n=1). Study perspectives included the healthcare system (n=5), societal and fund holders (n=1), a third party payer (n=3), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). All analyses were modeled based on interventions of one to two years' duration. Time horizon ranged from two years (n=1), 10 years (n=1) and lifetime (n=8). Model structures included Markov model (n=8), 'decision analytic models' (n=1), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). Considerable variation was observed in clinical and economic assumptions and reporting practices. Of all ICERs/ICURs reported, including those of subgroups (n=16), four were above a US$50,000 acceptability threshold, six were below and six were dominant. The majority of CVD-MPs was reported to have favorable economic outcomes, but 25% were at unacceptably high cost for the outcomes. Use of standardized reporting tools should increase transparency and inform what drives the cost-effectiveness of CVD-MPs. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  16. Comparative study of cost models for tokamak DEMO fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oishi, Tetsutarou; Yamazaki, Kozo; Arimoto, Hideki; Ban, Kanae; Kondo, Takuya; Tobita, Kenji; Goto, Takuya

    2012-01-01

    Cost evaluation analysis of the tokamak-type demonstration reactor DEMO using the PEC (physics-engineering-cost) system code is underway to establish a cost evaluation model for the DEMO reactor design. As a reference case, a DEMO reactor with reference to the SSTR (steady state tokamak reactor) was designed using PEC code. The calculated total capital cost was in the same order of that proposed previously in cost evaluation studies for the SSTR. Design parameter scanning analysis and multi regression analysis illustrated the effect of parameters on the total capital cost. The capital cost was predicted to be inside the range of several thousands of M$s in this study. (author)

  17. Estimation of the lifetime distribution of mechatronic systems in the presence of a covariate: A comparison among parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrowski, Sebastian; Chen, Hong; Döring, Maik; Jensen, Uwe; Schinköthe, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    In practice manufacturers may have lots of failure data of similar products using the same technology basis under different operating conditions. Thus, one can try to derive predictions for the distribution of the lifetime of newly developed components or new application environments through the existing data using regression models based on covariates. Three categories of such regression models are considered: a parametric, a semiparametric and a nonparametric approach. First, we assume that the lifetime is Weibull distributed, where its parameters are modelled as linear functions of the covariate. Second, the Cox proportional hazards model, well-known in Survival Analysis, is applied. Finally, a kernel estimator is used to interpolate between empirical distribution functions. In particular the last case is new in the context of reliability analysis. We propose a goodness of fit measure (GoF), which can be applied to all three types of regression models. Using this GoF measure we discuss a new model selection procedure. To illustrate this method of reliability prediction, the three classes of regression models are applied to real test data of motor experiments. Further the performance of the approaches is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • We estimate the lifetime distribution in the presence of a covariate. • Three types of regression models are considered and compared. • A new nonparametric estimator based on our particular data structure is introduced. • We propose a goodness of fit measure and show a new model selection procedure. • A case study with real data and Monte Carlo simulations are performed

  18. Life Cycle Costing Model for Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    To ensure sustainability of solid waste management, there is a need for cost assessment models which are consistent with environmental and social assessments. However, there is a current lack of standardized terminology and methodology to evaluate economic performances and this complicates...... LCC, e.g. waste generator, waste operator and public finances and the perspective often defines the systemboundaries of the study, e.g. waste operators often focus on her/his own cost, i.e. technology based,whereas waste generators and public finances often focus on the entire waste system, i.......e. system based. Figure 1 illustrates the proposed modeling framework that distinguishes between: a) budget cost, b) externality costs and 3) transfers and defines unit costs of each technology (per ton of input waste). Unitcosts are afterwards combined with a mass balance to calculate the technology cost...

  19. COST OF QUALITY MODELS AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION IN MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.M. Vaxevanidis

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve quality, an organization must take into account the costs associated with achieving quality since the objective of continuous improvement programs is not only to meet customer requirements, but also to do it at the lowest, possible, cost. This can only obtained by reducing the costs needed to achieve quality, and the reduction of these costs is only possible if they are identified and measured. Therefore, measuring and reporting the cost of quality (CoQ should be considered an important issue for achieving quality excellence. To collect quality costs an organization needs to adopt a framework to classify costs; however, there is no general agreement on a single broad definition of quality costs. CoQ is usually understood as the sum of conformance plus non-conformance costs, where cost of conformance is the price paid for prevention of poor quality (for example, inspection and quality appraisal and cost of non-conformance is the cost of poor quality caused by product and service failure (for example, rework and returns. The objective of this paper is to give a survey of research articles on the topic of CoQ; it opens with a literature review focused on existing CoQ models; then, it briefly presents the most common CoQ parameters and the metrics (indices used for monitoring CoQ. Finally, the use of CoQ models in practice, i.e., the implementation of a quality costing system and cost of quality reporting in companies is discussed, with emphasis in cases concerning manufacturing firms.

  20. Cost prediction following traumatic brain injury: model development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitz, Gershon; McKenzie, Dean; Attwood, David; Ponsford, Jennie L

    2016-02-01

    The ability to predict costs following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) would assist in planning treatment and support services by healthcare providers, insurers and other agencies. The objective of the current study was to develop predictive models of hospital, medical, paramedical, and long-term care (LTC) costs for the first 10 years following a TBI. The sample comprised 798 participants with TBI, the majority of whom were male and aged between 15 and 34 at time of injury. Costing information was obtained for hospital, medical, paramedical, and LTC costs up to 10 years postinjury. Demographic and injury-severity variables were collected at the time of admission to the rehabilitation hospital. Duration of PTA was the most important single predictor for each cost type. The final models predicted 44% of hospital costs, 26% of medical costs, 23% of paramedical costs, and 34% of LTC costs. Greater costs were incurred, depending on cost type, for individuals with longer PTA duration, obtaining a limb or chest injury, a lower GCS score, older age at injury, not being married or defacto prior to injury, living in metropolitan areas, and those reporting premorbid excessive or problem alcohol use. This study has provided a comprehensive analysis of factors predicting various types of costs following TBI, with the combination of injury-related and demographic variables predicting 23-44% of costs. PTA duration was the strongest predictor across all cost categories. These factors may be used for the planning and case management of individuals following TBI. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  1. Health Care Analysis for the MCRMC Insurance Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    incentive to reduce utilization  Subsidy to leave TRICARE and use other private health insurance  Increases in TRICARE premiums and co-pays  This...analysis develops the estimated cost of providing health care through a premium -based insurance model consistent with an employer-sponsored benefit...State  Income  Plan premium data  Contract cost data 22 May 2015 9 Agenda  Overview  Background  Data  Insurance Cost Estimate Methodology

  2. B meson lifetime measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piccolo, M.

    1989-01-01

    The lifetime of hadrons containing b-quark has been the subject of extensive experimental work and theoretical speculation; its importance is due to implications on some of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model, such as the top quark mass and the mixing angles. Since the pioneer measurements of the MAC and MARK II collaborations at PEP in 1983 the progress has been impressive; but many issues still remain open and await further study. In this paper the field's present status is discussed. An overview of the theoretical motivations for this measurements in the Standard Model framework is done. Then the experimental techniques used are reviewed, emphasizing the most recent measurements. A comparison of the results obtained is done and systematic errors are discussed. In conclusion there are some remarks on the further developments foreseen in the near future

  3. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling, Version 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  4. Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

  5. A comprehensive cost model for NASA data archiving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, J. L.; Klenk, K. F.; Treinish, L. A.

    1990-01-01

    A simple archive cost model has been developed to help predict NASA's archiving costs. The model covers data management activities from the beginning of the mission through launch, acquisition, and support of retrospective users by the long-term archive; it is capable of determining the life cycle costs for archived data depending on how the data need to be managed to meet user requirements. The model, which currently contains 48 equations with a menu-driven user interface, is available for use on an IBM PC or AT.

  6. Costly Disclosures in a Voluntary Disclosure Model with an Opponent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suijs, J.P.M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyzes voluntary disclosure equilibria when the voluntary disclosure model presented inWAGENHOFER (1990) is modified so as to include fixed disclosure costs as used in VERRECCHIA (1983). It turns out that incorporating both disclosure and proprietary costs rules out full disclosure

  7. Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the

  8. Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl. H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda

    2011-01-01

    Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost models

  9. Modeling the lowest-cost splitting of a herd of cows by optimizing a cost function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajamannage, Kelum; Bollt, Erik M.; Porter, Mason A.; Dawkins, Marian S.

    2017-06-01

    Animals live in groups to defend against predation and to obtain food. However, for some animals—especially ones that spend long periods of time feeding—there are costs if a group chooses to move on before their nutritional needs are satisfied. If the conflict between feeding and keeping up with a group becomes too large, it may be advantageous for some groups of animals to split into subgroups with similar nutritional needs. We model the costs and benefits of splitting in a herd of cows using a cost function that quantifies individual variation in hunger, desire to lie down, and predation risk. We model the costs associated with hunger and lying desire as the standard deviations of individuals within a group, and we model predation risk as an inverse exponential function of the group size. We minimize the cost function over all plausible groups that can arise from a given herd and study the dynamics of group splitting. We examine how the cow dynamics and cost function depend on the parameters in the model and consider two biologically-motivated examples: (1) group switching and group fission in a herd of relatively homogeneous cows, and (2) a herd with an equal number of adult males (larger animals) and adult females (smaller animals).

  10. Population Screening for Hereditary Haemochromatosis in Australia: Construction and Validation of a State-Transition Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaff, Barbara; Si, Lei; Neil, Amanda L; Yee, Kwang Chien; Sanderson, Kristy; Gurrin, Lyle C; Palmer, Andrew J

    2017-03-01

    HFE-associated haemochromatosis, the most common monogenic disorder amongst populations of northern European ancestry, is characterised by iron overload. Excess iron is stored in parenchymal tissues, leading to morbidity and mortality. Population screening programmes are likely to improve early diagnosis, thereby decreasing associated disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a health economics model of screening using utilities and costs from a haemochromatosis cohort. A state-transition model was developed with Markov states based on disease severity. Australian males (aged 30 years) and females (aged 45 years) of northern European ancestry were the target populations. The screening strategy was the status quo approach in Australia; the model was run over a lifetime horizon. Costs were estimated from the government perspective and reported in 2015 Australian dollars ($A); costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted at 5% annually. Model validity was assessed using goodness-of-fit analyses. Second-order Monte-Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty in multiple parameters. For validity, the model reproduced mortality, life expectancy (LE) and prevalence rates in line with published data. LE for C282Y homozygote males and females were 49.9 and 40.2 years, respectively, slightly lower than population rates. Mean (95% confidence interval) QALYS were 15.7 (7.7-23.7) for males and 14.4 (6.7-22.1) for females. Mean discounted lifetime costs for C282Y homozygotes were $A22,737 (3670-85,793) for males and $A13,840 (1335-67,377) for females. Sensitivity analyses revealed discount rates and prevalence had the greatest impacts on outcomes. We have developed a transparent, validated health economics model of C282Y homozygote haemochromatosis. The model will be useful to decision makers to identify cost-effective screening strategies.

  11. On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poufinas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

  12. NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

    2011-01-01

    NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

  13. Generomak: Fusion physics, engineering and costing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Krakowski, R.A.; Sheffield, J.; Dory, R.A.

    1988-06-01

    A generic fusion physics, engineering and economics model (Generomak) was developed as a means of performing consistent analysis of the economic viability of alternative magnetic fusion reactors. The original Generomak model developed at Oak Ridge by Sheffield was expanded for the analyses of the Senior Committee on Environmental Safety and Economics of Magnetic Fusion Energy (ESECOM). This report describes the Generomak code as used by ESECOM. The input data used for each of the ten ESECOM fusion plants and the Generomak code output for each case is given. 14 refs., 3 figs., 17 tabs

  14. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...

  15. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  16. Cost Valuation: A Model for Comparing Dissimilar Aircraft Platforms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Long, Eric J

    2006-01-01

    .... A demonstration of the model's validity using aircraft and cost data from the Predator UAV and the F-16 was then performed to illustrate how it can be used to aid comparisons of dissimilar aircraft...

  17. How much does it cost? The LIFE Project - Costing Models for Digital Curation and Preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Davies

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Digital preservation is concerned with the long-term safekeeping of electronic resources. How can we be confident of their permanence, if we do not know the cost of preservation? The LIFE (Lifecycle Information for E-Literature Project has made a major step forward in understanding the long-term costs in this complex area. The LIFE Project has developed a methodology to model the digital lifecycle and to calculate the costs of preserving digital information for the next 5, 10 or 100 years. National and higher education (HE libraries can now apply this process and plan effectively for the preservation of their digital collections. Based on previous work undertaken on the lifecycles of paper-based materials, the LIFE Project created a lifecycle model and applied it to real-life digital collections across a diverse subject range. Three case studies examined the everyday operations, processes and costs involved in their respective activities. The results were then used to calculate the direct costs for each element of the digital lifecycle. The Project has made major advances in costing preservation activities, as well as making detailed costs of real digital preservation activities available. The second phase of LIFE (LIFE2, which recently started, aims to refine the lifecycle methodology and to add a greater range and breadth to the project with additional exemplar case studies.

  18. Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrozinski, Joe; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Fox, George; Ball, Gary

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

  19. The Cost-Effectiveness of Dual Mobility Implants for Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Computer-Based Cost-Utility Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Brian T; McLawhorn, Alexander S; Westrich, Geoffrey H

    2017-05-03

    Dislocation remains a clinically important problem following primary total hip arthroplasty, and it is a common reason for revision total hip arthroplasty. Dual mobility (DM) implants decrease the risk of dislocation but can be more expensive than conventional implants and have idiosyncratic failure mechanisms. The purpose of this study was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of DM implants compared with conventional bearings for primary total hip arthroplasty. Markov model analysis was conducted from the societal perspective with use of direct and indirect costs. Costs, expressed in 2013 U.S. dollars, were derived from the literature, the National Inpatient Sample, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The model was populated with health state utilities and state transition probabilities derived from previously published literature. The analysis was performed for a patient's lifetime, and costs and effectiveness were discounted at 3% annually. The principal outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explore relevant uncertainty. In the base case, DM total hip arthroplasty showed absolute dominance over conventional total hip arthroplasty, with lower accrued costs ($39,008 versus $40,031 U.S. dollars) and higher accrued utility (13.18 versus 13.13 QALYs) indicating cost-savings. DM total hip arthroplasty ceased being cost-saving when its implant costs exceeded those of conventional total hip arthroplasty by $1,023, and the cost-effectiveness threshold for DM implants was $5,287 greater than that for conventional implants. DM was not cost-effective when the annualized incremental probability of revision from any unforeseen failure mechanism or mechanisms exceeded 0.29%. The probability of intraprosthetic dislocation exerted the most influence on model results. This model

  20. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  1. Atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials of trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene in a three-dimensional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. O. Patten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The chloroalkenes trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene (tCFP and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene (tDCE have been proposed as candidate replacements for other compounds in current use that cause concerns regarding potential environmental effects including destruction of stratospheric ozone. Because tCFP and tDCE contain chlorine atoms, the effects of these short-lived compounds on stratospheric ozone must be established. In this study, we derive the atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs for tCFP and for tDCE assuming emissions from land surfaces at latitudes 30° N to 60° N using the MOZART 3 three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry and physics. 53% of the ozone loss due to tCFP and 98% of the ozone loss due to tDCE take place in the troposphere, rather than in the stratosphere as generally expected from longer-lived chlorocarbons. The atmospheric lifetime of tCFP against chemical reaction is 40.4 days, and its ODP is quite small at 0.00034. The tDCE atmospheric lifetime is 12.7 days, and its ODP is 0.00024, which is the lowest ODP found for any chlorocarbon we have studied. Our study suggests that chlorine from tCFP and tDCE are unlikely to affect ozone at quantities likely to be emitted to the atmosphere.

  2. Lifetime value in business process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Souček

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on lifetime value assessment and its implementation and application in business processes. The lifetime value is closely connected to customer relationship management. The paper presents results of three consecutive researches devoted to issues of customer relationship management. The first two from 2008 and 2010 were conducted as quantitative ones; the one from 2009 had qualitative nature. The respondents were representatives of particular companies. The means for data collection was provided by ReLa system. We will focus on individual attributes of lifetime value of a customer, and relate them to approaches of authors mentioned in introduction. Based on the qualitative research data, the paper focuses on individual customer lifetime value parameters. These parameters include: the cost to the customer relationship acquisition and maintenance, profit generated from a particular customer, customer awareness value, the level of preparedness to adopt new products, the value of references and customer loyalty level. For each of these parameters, the paper provides specific recommendations. Moreover, it is possible to learn about the nature of these parameter assessments in the Czech environment.

  3. Dynamic modeling and simulation of power transformer maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ristić Olga

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the dynamic model of maintenance costs of the power transformer functional components. Reliability is modeled combining the exponential and Weibull's distribution. The simulation was performed with the aim of corrective maintenance and installation of the continuous monitoring system of the most critical components. Simulation Dynamic System (SDS method and VENSIM PLE software was used to simulate the cost. In this way, significant savings in maintenance costs will be achieved with a small initial investment. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 41025 i br. OI 171007

  4. Discounted cost model for condition-based maintenance optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weide, J.A.M. van der; Pandey, M.D.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents methods to evaluate the reliability and optimize the maintenance of engineering systems that are damaged by shocks or transients arriving randomly in time and overall degradation is modeled as a cumulative stochastic point process. The paper presents a conceptually clear and comprehensive derivation of formulas for computing the discounted cost associated with a maintenance policy combining both condition-based and age-based criteria for preventive maintenance. The proposed discounted cost model provides a more realistic basis for optimizing the maintenance policies than those based on the asymptotic, non-discounted cost rate criterion.

  5. User Delay Cost Model and Facilities Maintenance Cost Model for a Terminal Control Area : Volume 2. User's Manual and Program Documentation for the User Delay Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-01

    The User Delay Cost Model (UDCM) is a Monte Carlo simulation of certain classes of movement of air traffic in the Boston Terminal Control Area (TCA). It incorporates a weather module, an aircraft generation module, a facilities module, and an air con...

  6. Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, G B; Dowdy, D W; Bastos, M L; Zwerling, A; Sweeney, S; Foster, N; Trajman, A; Islam, M A; Kapiga, S; Sinanovic, E; Knight, G M; White, R G; Wells, W A; Cobelens, F G; Vassall, A

    2016-12-01

    Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials. We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered 'real world' constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence. From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating 'real world' constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries' GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh. Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

  7. Nuclear lifetime measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillaume, Georges

    Three direct techniques of lifetime measurement are emphasized: electronic methods and two methods based on the Doppler effect (the recoil distance methods or RDM, the Doppler shift attenuation methods or DSAM). Said direct methods are concerned with the direct measurement of the radioactive decay constants of nuclear excited states. They allow lifetimes of nucleus bound states whose deexcitations occur by electromagnetic transitions, to be determined. Other methods for measuring lifetimes are also examined: microwave techniques and those involving the blocking effect in crystals (direct methods) and also various indirect methods of obtaining lifetimes (γ resonance scattering, capture reactions, inelastic electron and nucleus scattering, and Coulomb deexcitation) [fr

  8. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO's quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab

  9. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation`s generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO`s quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab.

  10. Lifetime of heavy flavour particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lueth, V.

    1985-10-01

    Recent measurements of the lifetime of the tau leptons and charm and beauty hadrons are reviewed and their significance for the couplings of the charged weak current, flavour mixing, and models relating quarks to hadron decay are discussed. 70 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs

  11. Melanoma costs: a dynamic model comparing estimated overall costs of various clinical stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrescu, Doru Traian

    2009-11-15

    The rapidly increasing incidence of melanoma occurs at the same time as an increase in general healthcare costs, particularly the expenses associated with cancer care. Previous cost estimates in melanoma have not utilized a dynamic model considering the evolution of the disease and have not integrated the multiple costs associated with different aspects of medical interventions and patient-related factors. Futhermore, previous calculations have not been updated to reflect the modern tendencies in healthcare costs. We designed a comprehensive model of expenses in melanoma that considers the dynamic costs generated by the natural progression of the disease, which produces costs associated with treatment, surveillance, loss of income, and terminal care. The complete range of initial clinical (TNM) stages of the disease and initial tumor stages were analyzed in this model and the total healthcare costs for the five years following melanoma presentation at each particular stage were calculated. We have observed dramatic incremental total costs associated with progressively higher initial stages of the disease, ranging from a total of $4,648.48 for in situ tumors to $159,808.17 for Stage IV melanoma. By stage, early lesions associate 30-55 percent of their costs for the treatment of the primary tumor, due to a low rate of recurrence (local, regional, or distant), which limits the need for additional interventions. For in situ melanoma, T1a, and T1b, surveillance is an important contributor to the medical costs, accounting for more than 25 percent of the total cost over 5 years. In contrast, late lesions incur a much larger proportion of their associated costs (up to 80-85%) from the diagnosis and treatment of metastatic disease because of the increased propensity of those lesions to disseminate. This cost increases with increasing tumor stage (from $2,442.17 for T1a to $6,678.00 for T4b). The most expensive items in the medical care of patients with melanoma consist of

  12. A CASKCOM: A cask life cycle cost model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    CASKCOM (cask cost model) is a computerized model which calculates the life cycle costs (LCC) associated with specific transportation cask designs and discounts those costs, if the user so chooses, to a net present value. The model has been used to help analyze and compare the life cycle economics of burnup credit and nonburnup credit cask designs being considered as conditions for a new generation of spent fuel transportation casks. CASKCOM is parametric in the sense that its input data can be easily changed in order to analyze and compare the life cycle cost implications arising from alternative assumptions. The input data themselves are organized into two main groupings. The first grouping comprises a set of data which is independent of cask design. This first grouping does not change from the analysis of one cask design to another. The second grouping of data is specific to each individual cask design. This second grouping thus changes each time a new cask design is analyzed

  13. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  14. Cost Analysis of a Digital Health Care Model in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekman, Björn

    2017-09-22

    Digital technologies in health care are expected to increase in scope and to affect ever more parts of the health care system. It is important to enhance the knowledge of whether new digital methods and innovations provide value for money compared with traditional models of care. The objective of the study was to evaluate whether a digital health care model for primary care is a less costly alternative compared with traditional in-office primary care in Sweden. Cost data for the two care models were collected and analyzed to obtain a measure in local currency per care contact. The comparison showed that the total economic cost of a digital consultation is 1960 Swedish krona (SEK) (SEK100 = US$11.29; February 2017) compared with SEK3348 for a traditional consultation at a health care clinic. Cost differences arose on both the provider side and on the user side. The digital health care model may be a less costly alternative to the traditional health care model. Depending on the rate of digital substitution, gross economic cost savings of between SEK1 billion and SEK10 billion per year could be realized if more digital consultations were made. Further studies are needed to validate the findings, assess the types of care most suitable for digital care, and also to obtain various quality-adjusted outcome measures.

  15. SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chulkyu; Martin Randall V.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron; Lee, Hanlim; Dickerson, RUssell R.; Hains, Jennifer C.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Richter, Andreas; Vinnikov, Konstantine; Schwab, James J.

    2011-01-01

    Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

  16. Microalgal CO2 sequestering – Modeling microalgae production costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilanovic, Dragoljub; Holland, Mark; Armon, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Microalgae production costs were modeled as a function of specific expenses. ► The effects of uncontrollable expenses/factors were incorporated into the model. ► Modeled microalgae production costs were in the range $102–1503 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . - Abstract: Microalgae CO 2 sequestering facilities might become an industrial reality if microalgae biomass could be produced at cost below $500.00 t −1 . We develop a model for estimation of total production costs of microalgae as a function of known production-specific expenses, and incorporate into the model the effects of uncontrollable factors which affect known production-specific expenses. Random fluctuations were intentionally incorporated into the model, consequently into generated cost/technology scenarios, because each and every logically interconnected equipment/operation that is used in design/construction/operation/maintenance of a production process is inevitably subject to random cost/price fluctuations which can neither be eliminated nor a priori controlled. A total of 152 costs/technology scenarios were evaluated to find 44 scenarios in which predicted total production costs of microalgae (PTPCM) was in the range $200–500 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . An additional 24 scenarios were found with PTCPM in the range of $102–200 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . These findings suggest that microalgae CO 2 sequestering and the production of commercial compounds from microalgal biomass can be economically viable venture even today when microalgae production technology is still far from its optimum.

  17. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Cobiac

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a key risk factor for chronic disease, but a growing number of people are not achieving the recommended levels of physical activity necessary for good health. Australians are no exception; despite Australia's image as a sporting nation, with success at the elite level, the majority of Australians do not get enough physical activity. There are many options for intervention, from individually tailored advice, such as counselling from a general practitioner, to population-wide approaches, such as mass media campaigns, but the most cost-effective mix of interventions is unknown. In this study we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From evidence of intervention efficacy in the physical activity literature and evaluation of the health sector costs of intervention and disease treatment, we model the cost impacts and health outcomes of six physical activity interventions, over the lifetime of the Australian population. We then determine cost-effectiveness of each intervention against current practice for physical activity intervention in Australia and derive the optimal pathway for implementation. Based on current evidence of intervention effectiveness, the intervention programs that encourage use of pedometers (Dominant and mass media-based community campaigns (Dominant are the most cost-effective strategies to implement and are very likely to be cost-saving. The internet-based intervention program (AUS$3,000/DALY, the GP physical activity prescription program (AUS$12,000/DALY, and the program to encourage more active transport (AUS$20,000/DALY, although less likely to be cost-saving, have a high probability of being under a AUS$50,000 per DALY threshold. GP referral to an exercise physiologist (AUS$79,000/DALY is the least cost-effective option if high time and travel costs for patients in screening and consulting an exercise physiologist are considered

  18. Modelling the healthcare costs of skin cancer in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Louisa G; Elliott, Thomas M; Wright, Caradee Y; Deghaye, Nicola; Visser, Willie

    2016-04-02

    Skin cancer is a growing public health problem in South Africa due to its high ambient ultraviolet radiation environment. The purpose of this study was to estimate the annual health system costs of cutaneous melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in South Africa, incorporating both the public and private sectors. A cost-of-illness study was used to measure the economic burden of skin cancer and a 'bottom-up' micro-costing approach. Clinicians provided data on the patterns of care and treatments while national costing reports and clinician fees provided cost estimates. The mean costs per melanoma and per SCC/BCC were extrapolated to estimate national costs using published incidence data and official population statistics. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to address the uncertainty of the parameters used in the model. The estimated total annual cost of treating skin cancers in South Africa were ZAR 92.4 million (2015) (or US$15.7 million). Sensitivity analyses showed that the total costs could vary between ZAR 89.7 to 94.6 million (US$15.2 to $16.1 million) when melanoma-related variables were changed and between ZAR 78.4 to 113.5 million ($13.3 to $19.3 million) when non-melanoma-related variables were changed. The primary drivers of overall costs were the cost of excisions, follow-up care, radical lymph node dissection, cryotherapy and radiation therapy. The cost of managing skin cancer in South Africa is sizable. Since skin cancer is largely preventable through improvements to sun-protection awareness and skin cancer prevention programs, this study highlights these healthcare resources could be used for other pressing public health problems in South Africa.

  19. Proposição de um modelo baseado em Customer Lifetime Value para a análise de melhorias no sistema produtivo Proposition of a Customer Lifetime Value model to evaluate production system improvements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Felipe Riehs Camargo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo propõe um modelo para analisar melhorias no sistema produtivo à luz do valor do cliente para a empresa. Para isso, apresenta um modelo que agrega variáveis advindas do processo produtivo, do mercado consumidor e de métricas do marketing. Os três pilares de sustentação do modelo são os clientes, com suas necessidades e percepções em relação aos produtos e serviços; as características atribuídas pela produção; e as regras para análise do impacto da adoção de diferentes melhorias no sistema produtivo sobre o valor vitalício dos clientes atuais (CLV. Além disso, um modelo de escolha discreta (logit é proposto como o integrador entre a produção e o marketing. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi composto de quatro etapas: levantamento de referencial; construção do modelo conceitual; aplicação em um caso; análise e discussão. Como resultados, observa-se que, havendo disponibilidade de informações e tempo para sua condução, o modelo contribui para a identificação de melhorias que contemplem simultaneamente a visão de produção e a de sustentabilidade financeira.This paper aims to propose a model to investigate the effect of improvements on the productive system on the organization considering customer value. The model proposed combine variables representing the productive process, market, and marketing metrics. It consists of three fundamental elements: consumers and their needs and perceptions of products and services; characteristics of the productive system; and rules to analyze the impact of adoption of different improvements on the productive system. Customer lifetime value (CLV was measured and a discrete choice model (logit is proposed as an integrator between production and marketing perspectives. The research methodology consisted of four steps: referential research, conceptual modeling, application in a particular case, and results analysis. As a result, it is observed that upon availability

  20. TTS-Polttopuu - cost calculation model for fuelwood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naett, H.; Ryynaenen, S.

    1999-01-01

    The TTS-Institutes's Forestry Department has developed a computer based cost-calculation model, 'TTS-Polttopuu', for the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in the harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model enables to determine the productivity and device cost per operating hour by each working stage of the harvesting system. The calculation model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and cost bases of different harvesting chains influence the unit cost of the whole system. The harvesting chain includes the cutting of delimbed and non-delimbed fuelwood, forest haulage, road transportation, chipping and chopping of longwood at storage. This individually operating software was originally developed to serve research needs, but it also serves the needs of the forestry and agricultural education, training and extension as well as individual firewood producers. The system requirements for this cost calculation model are at least 486- level processor with the Windows 95/98 -operating system, 16 MB of memory (RAM) and 5 MB of available hard-disk. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY-research programme. (orig.)

  1. Model for predicting fabric filter and ESP costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoskins, W.; Terrill, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    United Engineers and Constructors (UE and C) has developed a personal computer (PC) based program (Model) for estimating capital and operating costs of fabric filters (FFs) and electrostatic precipitators (ESPs). The program contains proprietary sizing routines for both types of particulate control devices. For the FF, it determines the number of compartments, number of bags, physical dimensions and other important information. For the ESP, it determines specific collection area (SCA), number of cells, and number of TR sets. This paper reports that the program has the capability of handling a wide range of gas flows. It adjusts construction costs for the labor productivity factors in different locations. The capital costs are considered conceptual in nature with an absolute accuracy range of ±25%. The capital and operating costs are used along with economic factors to determine present worth costs. This allows site specific side-by-side comparisons of FFs and ESPs

  2. Lifetime of organic photovoltaics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corazza, Michael; Krebs, Frederik C; Gevorgyan, Suren A.

    2015-01-01

    tests. Comparison of the indoor and outdoor lifetimes was performed by means of the o-diagram, which constitutes the initial steps towards establishing a method for predicting the lifetime of an organic photovoltaic device under real operational conditions based on a selection of accelerated indoor...

  3. Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical Telescope Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Reese, Gayle; Byberg, Alicia

    2005-01-01

    A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multivariable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction-limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature are examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e., multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models Based on aperture diameter are derived.

  4. Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical: Telescope Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Reese, Gayle; Byberg, Alicia

    2004-01-01

    A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature were examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter were derived.

  5. Payload maintenance cost model for the space telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    An optimum maintenance cost model for the space telescope for a fifteen year mission cycle was developed. Various documents and subsequent updates of failure rates and configurations were made. The reliability of the space telescope for one year, two and one half years, and five years were determined using the failure rates and configurations. The failure rates and configurations were also used in the maintenance simulation computer model which simulate the failure patterns for the fifteen year mission life of the space telescope. Cost algorithms associated with the maintenance options as indicated by the failure patterns were developed and integrated into the model.

  6. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  7. Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is

  8. An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

    KAUST Repository

    Sø rbye, Sigrunn H.; Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood

  9. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  10. New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  11. New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  12. Dynamic modeling of cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination, Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Flem, Elmira; Latipov, Renat; Kuatbaeva, Ajnagul; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

    2014-01-01

    The government of Kazakhstan, a middle-income country in Central Asia, is considering the introduction of rotavirus vaccination into its national immunization program. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination spanning 20 years by using a synthesis of dynamic transmission models accounting for herd protection. We found that a vaccination program with 90% coverage would prevent ≈880 rotavirus deaths and save an average of 54,784 life-years for children vaccine cost at vaccination program costs would be entirely offset. To further evaluate efficacy of a vaccine program, benefits of indirect protection conferred by vaccination warrant further study.

  13. A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

  14. Generic Database Cost Models for Hierarchical Memory Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Manegold, Stefan; Boncz, Peter; Kersten, Martin

    2002-01-01

    textabstractAccurate prediction of operator execution time is a prerequisite for database query optimization. Although extensively studied for conventional disk-based DBMSs, cost modeling in main-memory DBMSs is still an open issue. Recent database research has demonstrated that memory access is more and more becoming a significant---if not the major---cost component of database operations. If used properly, fast but small cache memories---usually organized in cascading hierarchy between CPU ...

  15. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  16. System cost model user's manual, version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.

    1995-06-01

    The System Cost Model (SCM) was developed by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies in Idaho Falls, Idaho and MK-Environmental Services in San Francisco, California to support the Baseline Environmental Management Report sensitivity analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The SCM serves the needs of the entire DOE complex for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) of mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The model can be used to evaluate total complex costs based on various configuration options or to evaluate site-specific options. The site-specific cost estimates are based on generic assumptions such as waste loads and densities, treatment processing schemes, existing facilities capacities and functions, storage and disposal requirements, schedules, and cost factors. The SCM allows customization of the data for detailed site-specific estimates. There are approximately forty TSD module designs that have been further customized to account for design differences for nonalpha, alpha, remote-handled, and transuranic wastes. The SCM generates cost profiles based on the model default parameters or customized user-defined input and also generates costs for transporting waste from generators to TSD sites

  17. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  18. Hadronization, spin and lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossman, Yuval; Nachshon, Itay

    2008-01-01

    Measurements of lifetimes can be done in two ways. For very short lived particles, the width can be measured. For long lived ones, the lifetime can be directly measured, for example, using a displaced vertex. Practically, the lifetime cannot be extracted for particles with intermediate lifetimes. We show that for such cases information about the lifetime can be extracted for heavy colored particles that can be produced with known polarization. For example, a t-like particle with intermediate lifetime hadronizes into a superposition of the lowest two hadronic states, T* and T (the equivalent of B* and B). Depolarization effects are governed by time scales that are much longer than the hadronization time scale, Λ QCD -1 . After a time of order 1/Δm, with Δm≡m(T*)-m(T), half of the initial polarization is lost. The polarization is totally lost after a time of order 1/Γ γ , with Γ γ = Γ(T* → Tγ). Thus, by comparing the initial and final polarization, we get information on the particle's lifetime.

  19. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amber L; Cleghorn, Christine L; van der Deen, Frederieke S; Cobiac, Linda J; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; Blakely, Tony; Wilson, Nick

    2016-09-22

    Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted). These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  20. The Application of Architecture Frameworks to Modelling Exploration Operations Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Developments in architectural frameworks and system-of-systems thinking have provided useful constructs for systems engineering. DoDAF concepts, language, and formalisms, in particular, provide a natural way of conceptualizing an operations cost model applicable to NASA's space exploration vision. Not all DoDAF products have meaning or apply to a DoDAF inspired operations cost model, but this paper describes how such DoDAF concepts as nodes, systems, and operational activities relate to the development of a model to estimate exploration operations costs. The paper discusses the specific implementation to the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) operational functions/activities currently being developed and presents an overview of how this powerful representation can apply to robotic space missions as well.

  1. TTS-Polttopuu - cost calculation model for fuelwood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naett, H.; Ryynaenen, S.

    1998-01-01

    The TTS-Institutes's Forestry Department has developed a computer based costcalculation model, 'TTS-Polttopuu', for the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in the harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model enables to determine the productivity and device cost per operating hour by each working stage of the harvesting system. The calculation model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and cost bases of different harvesting chains influence the unit cost of the whole system. The harvesting chain includes the cutting of delimbed and non-delimbed fuelwood, forest haulage, road transportation chipping and chopping of longwood at storage. This individually operating software was originally developed to serve research needs, but it also serves the needs of the forestry and agricultural education, training and extension as well as individual firewood producers. The system requirements for this cost calculation model are at least 486-level processor with the Windows 95/98 -operating system, 16 MB of memory (RAM) and 5 MB of available hard-disk. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY Research Programme. (orig.)

  2. A New Proposed Cost Model for List Accessing Problem using Buffering

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Rakesh; Bhoi, Seetaya; Tripathy, Sasmita

    2011-01-01

    There are many existing well known cost models for the list accessing problem. The standard cost model developed by Sleator and Tarjan is most widely used. In this paper, we have made a comprehensive study of the existing cost models and proposed a new cost model for the list accessing problem. In our proposed cost model, for calculating the processing cost of request sequence using a singly linked list, we consider the access cost, matching cost and replacement cost. The cost of processing a...

  3. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  4. Synergistic Role of Balanced Scorecard/Activity Based Costing and Goal Programming Combined Model on Strategic Cost Management

    OpenAIRE

    Taleghani, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    During the past few years, we have seen a significant shift in cost accounting and management. In the new business environment, cost management has become a critical skill, but it is not sufficient for simply reducing costs; instead, costs must be managed strategically. Application of a successful Strategic Cost Management (StraCM) system plays the significant role in success of organization performance. In this study, we want to illustrate how the goal programming model in combination with t...

  5. ICU early physical rehabilitation programs: financial modeling of cost savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, Robert K; Mayhew, Christopher R; Korupolu, Radha; Mantheiy, Earl C; Friedman, Michael A; Palmer, Jeffrey B; Needham, Dale M

    2013-03-01

    To evaluate the potential annual net cost savings of implementing an ICU early rehabilitation program. Using data from existing publications and actual experience with an early rehabilitation program in the Johns Hopkins Hospital Medical ICU, we developed a model of net financial savings/costs and presented results for ICUs with 200, 600, 900, and 2,000 annual admissions, accounting for both conservative- and best-case scenarios. Our example scenario provided a projected financial analysis of the Johns Hopkins Medical ICU early rehabilitation program, with 900 admissions per year, using actual reductions in length of stay achieved by this program. U.S.-based adult ICUs. Financial modeling of the introduction of an ICU early rehabilitation program. Net cost savings generated in our example scenario, with 900 annual admissions and actual length of stay reductions of 22% and 19% for the ICU and floor, respectively, were $817,836. Sensitivity analyses, which used conservative- and best-case scenarios for length of stay reductions and varied the per-day ICU and floor costs, across ICUs with 200-2,000 annual admissions, yielded financial projections ranging from -$87,611 (net cost) to $3,763,149 (net savings). Of the 24 scenarios included in these sensitivity analyses, 20 (83%) demonstrated net savings, with a relatively small net cost occurring in the remaining four scenarios, mostly when simultaneously combining the most conservative assumptions. A financial model, based on actual experience and published data, projects that investment in an ICU early rehabilitation program can generate net financial savings for U.S. hospitals. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the projected net cost of implementing such a program is modest relative to the substantial improvements in patient outcomes demonstrated by ICU early rehabilitation programs.

  6. An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abate, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    ...) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform...

  7. Cost-effectiveness of total hip and knee replacements for the Australian population with osteoarthritis: discrete-event simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideki Higashi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis constitutes a major musculoskeletal burden for the aged Australians. Hip and knee replacement surgeries are effective interventions once all conservative therapies to manage the symptoms have been exhausted. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements in Australia. To our best knowledge, the study is the first attempt to account for the dual nature of hip and knee osteoarthritis in modelling the severities of right and left joints separately. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model that follows up the individuals with osteoarthritis over their lifetimes. The model defines separate attributes for right and left joints and accounts for several repeat replacements. The Australian population with osteoarthritis who were 40 years of age or older in 2003 were followed up until extinct. Intervention effects were modelled by means of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs averted. Both hip and knee replacements are highly cost effective (AUD 5,000 per DALY and AUD 12,000 per DALY respectively under an AUD 50,000/DALY threshold level. The exclusion of cost offsets, and inclusion of future unrelated health care costs in extended years of life, did not change the findings that the interventions are cost-effective (AUD 17,000 per DALY and AUD 26,000 per DALY respectively. However, there was a substantial difference between hip and knee replacements where surgeries administered for hips were more cost-effective than for knees. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both hip and knee replacements are cost-effective interventions to improve the quality of life of people with osteoarthritis. It was also shown that the dual nature of hip and knee OA should be taken into account to provide more accurate estimation on the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements.

  8. Network formation under heterogeneous costs: The multiple group model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamphorst, J.J.A.; van der Laan, G.

    2007-01-01

    It is widely recognized that the shape of networks influences both individual and aggregate behavior. This raises the question which types of networks are likely to arise. In this paper we investigate a model of network formation, where players are divided into groups and the costs of a link between

  9. Generic Database Cost Models for Hierarchical Memory Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Manegold (Stefan); P.A. Boncz (Peter); M.L. Kersten (Martin)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractAccurate prediction of operator execution time is a prerequisite for database query optimization. Although extensively studied for conventional disk-based DBMSs, cost modeling in main-memory DBMSs is still an open issue. Recent database research has demonstrated that memory access is

  10. Generic database cost models for hierarchical memory systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Manegold (Stefan); P.A. Boncz (Peter); M.L. Kersten (Martin)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractAccurate prediction of operator execution time is a prerequisite fordatabase query optimization. Although extensively studied for conventionaldisk-based DBMSs, cost modeling in main-memory DBMSs is still an openissue. Recent database research has demonstrated that memory access ismore

  11. A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

    2010-01-01

    We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

  12. Judd–Ofelt modeling, emission lifetimes and non-radiative relaxation for Er{sup 3+} doped Cs{sub 2}NaYF{sub 6} elpasolite crystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loiko, P.A. [ITMO University, 49 Kronverkskiy pr., St. Petersburg 197101 (Russian Federation); Vilejshikova, E.V. [Center for Optical Materials and Technologies (COMT), Belarusian National Technical University, 65/17 Nezavisimosti Ave., Minsk 220013 (Belarus); Khaidukov, N.M. [N.S. Kurnakov Institute of General and Inorganic Chemistry, 31 Leninskii Prospekt, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Méndez-Ramos, J. [Departamento de Física, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna 38206, Tenerife (Spain); Mateos, X. [Física i Cristallografia de Materials i Nanomaterials (FiCMA-FiCNA), Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV), Campus Sescelades, c/ Marcellí Domingo, s/n., Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Yumashev, K.V., E-mail: k.yumashev@tut.by [Center for Optical Materials and Technologies (COMT), Belarusian National Technical University, 65/17 Nezavisimosti Ave., Minsk 220013 (Belarus)

    2017-05-15

    Absorption and emission properties of Er{sup 3+} ions in a cubic elpasolite crystal, Cs{sub 2}NaYF{sub 6}, are modeled within the Judd-Ofelt (J-O) theory. The J-O intensity parameters have been determined: Ω{sub 2} = 0.665, Ω{sub 4} = 0.217 and Ω{sub 6} = 0.029 ×10{sup –20} cm{sup 2}. The elpasolite structure of Cs{sub 2}NaYF{sub 6} containing isolated [YF{sub 6}] polyhedra allows high Er{sup 3+} doping levels up to 100 at% without considerable concentration quenching of luminescence and exceptionally long lifetimes of the excited states (in particular, the radiative lifetimes of the {sup 4}I{sub 13/2} and {sup 4}I{sub 11/2} states are as long as 36.7 ms and 113.4 ms, respectively). It also shows weak non-radiative relaxation. Stimulated-emission cross-sections have been determined for the Er{sup 3+} transitions in Cs{sub 2}NaYF{sub 6} at ~2.7 and ~1.5 μm as well as in the visible spectral range.

  13. Heritability of lifetime ecstasy use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vreeker, Annabel; Brunt, Tibor M; Willemsen, Gonneke; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

    2017-09-01

    Ecstasy is a widely used psychoactive drug that users often take because they experience positive effects such as increased euphoria, sociability, elevated mood, and heightened sensations. Ecstasy use is not harmless and several immediate and long term side effects have been identified. Lifetime ecstasy use is likely to be partly influenced by genetic factors, but no twin study has determined the heritability. Here, we apply a classical twin design to a large sample of twins and siblings to estimate the heritability of lifetime ecstasy use. The sample comprised 8500 twins and siblings aged between 18 and 45 years from 5402 families registered at the Netherlands Twin Registry. In 2013-2014 participants filled out a questionnaire including a question whether they had ever used ecstasy. We used the classical twin design to partition the individual differences in liability to ecstasy use into that due to genetic, shared environmental, and residual components. Overall, 10.4% of the sample had used ecstasy during their lifetime, with a somewhat higher prevalence in males than females. Twin modelling indicated that individual differences in liability to lifetime ecstasy use are for 74% due to genetic differences between individuals, whereas shared environmental and residual factors explain a small proportion of its liability (5% and 21%, respectively). Although heritability estimates appeared to be higher for females than males, this difference was not significant. Lifetime ecstasy use is a highly heritable trait, which indicates that some people are genetically more vulnerable to start using ecstasy than others. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Decision analytic model exploring the cost and cost-offset implications of street triage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslin, Margaret; Callaghan, Lynne; Packwood, Martin; Badu, Vincent; Byford, Sarah

    2016-02-11

    To determine if street triage is effective at reducing the total number of people with mental health needs detained under section 136, and is associated with cost savings compared to usual police response. Routine data from a 6-month period in the year before and after the implementation of a street triage scheme were used to explore detentions under section 136, and to populate a decision analytic model to explore the impact of street triage on the cost to the NHS and the criminal justice sector of supporting people with a mental health need. A predefined area of Sussex, South East England, UK. All people who were detained under section 136 within the predefined area or had contact with the street triage team. The street triage model used here was based on a psychiatric nurse attending incidents with a police constable. The primary outcome was change in the total number of detentions under section 136 between the before and after periods assessed. Secondary analysis focused on whether the additional costs of street triage were offset by cost savings as a result of changes in detentions under section 136. Detentions under section 136 in the street triage period were significantly lower than in the usual response period (118 vs 194 incidents, respectively; χ(2) (1df) 18.542, p<0.001). Total NHS and criminal justice costs were estimated to be £1043 in the street triage period compared to £1077 in the usual response period. Investment in street triage was offset by savings as a result of reduced detentions under section 136, particularly detentions in custody. Data available did not include assessment of patient outcomes, so a full economic evaluation was not possible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  15. Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

    2013-06-01

    The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

  16. Cost optimization model and its heuristic genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Wang Yongqing; Guo Jilin

    1999-01-01

    Interest and escalation are large quantity in proportion to the cost of nuclear power plant construction. In order to optimize the cost, the mathematics model of cost optimization for nuclear power plant construction was proposed, which takes the maximum net present value as the optimization goal. The model is based on the activity networks of the project and is an NP problem. A heuristic genetic algorithms (HGAs) for the model was introduced. In the algorithms, a solution is represented with a string of numbers each of which denotes the priority of each activity for assigned resources. The HGAs with this encoding method can overcome the difficulty which is harder to get feasible solutions when using the traditional GAs to solve the model. The critical path of the activity networks is figured out with the concept of predecessor matrix. An example was computed with the HGAP programmed in C language. The results indicate that the model is suitable for the objectiveness, the algorithms is effective to solve the model

  17. Linear versus quadratic portfolio optimization model with transaction cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Norhidayah Bt Ab; Kamil, Karmila Hanim; Elias, Siti Masitah

    2014-06-01

    Optimization model is introduced to become one of the decision making tools in investment. Hence, it is always a big challenge for investors to select the best model that could fulfill their goal in investment with respect to risk and return. In this paper we aims to discuss and compare the portfolio allocation and performance generated by quadratic and linear portfolio optimization models namely of Markowitz and Maximin model respectively. The application of these models has been proven to be significant and popular among others. However transaction cost has been debated as one of the important aspects that should be considered for portfolio reallocation as portfolio return could be significantly reduced when transaction cost is taken into consideration. Therefore, recognizing the importance to consider transaction cost value when calculating portfolio' return, we formulate this paper by using data from Shariah compliant securities listed in Bursa Malaysia. It is expected that, results from this paper will effectively justify the advantage of one model to another and shed some lights in quest to find the best decision making tools in investment for individual investors.

  18. Modeling of Construction Cost of Villas in Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MA Al-Mohsin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a model for estimating construction cost of villas is presented. The model takes into account four major factors affecting villa's cost, namely: built up area, number of toilets, number of bedrooms and the number of stories. A field survey was conducted to collect information required for such model using data collection form designed by the researchers. Information about 150 villas was collected from six well experienced consultants in the field of villa design and supervision in Oman. Collected data was analyzed to develop suggested model which consists of two main levels of estimate. The first level is at the conceptual design stage where the client presents his/her need of space and basic information about the available plot for construction. The second level of cost estimation is carried out after the preliminary design stage where the client has to decide on the finishes and type of structure. At the second level of estimation, the client should be able to decide whether to precede for construction or not, according to his/her budget. The model is general and can be used anywhere and was validated for accepted degree of confidence using the actual cost of the 112 executed villa projects in Oman. The villas included in this study were owned by clients from both high and low income brackets and had different types of finishing material. The developed equations showed good correlation between the selected variables and the actual cost with R2  = 0.79 in the case of conceptual estimate and R2  = 0.601 for preliminary estimate.

  19. Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M R

    1996-04-01

    As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

  20. INTEGRATED COST MODEL FOR IMPROVING THE PRODUCTION IN COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Hajduova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: All processes in the company play important role in ensuring functional integrated management system. We point out the importance of need for a systematic approach to the use of quantitative, but especially statistical methods for modelling the cost of the improvement activities that are part of an integrated management system. Development of integrated management systems worldwide leads towards building of systematic procedures of implementation maintenance and improvement of all systems according to the requirements of all the sides involved.Methodology: Statistical evaluation of the economic indicators of improvement costs and the need for a systematic approach to their management in terms of integrated management systems have become a key role also in the management of processes in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. The aim of this publication is to highlight the importance of proper implementation of statistical methods in the process of improvement costs management in the integrated management system of current market conditions and document the legitimacy of a systematic approach in the area of monitoring and analysing indicators of improvement with the aim of the efficient process management of company. We provide specific example of the implementation of appropriate statistical methods in the production of copper wire in a company Cu Drôt, a.s. This publication also aims to create a model for the estimation of integrated improvement costs, which through the use of statistical methods in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. is used to support decision-making on improving efficiency.Findings: In the present publication, a method for modelling the improvement process, by an integrated manner, is proposed. It is a method in which the basic attributes of the improvement in quality, safety and environment are considered and synergistically combined in the same improvement project. The work examines the use of sophisticated quantitative, especially

  1. Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Neuroimaging-Based Treatment of Acute Wake-Up Stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Pandya

    Full Text Available Thrombolytic treatment (tissue-type plasminogen activator [tPA] is only recommended for acute ischemic stroke patients with stroke onset time 4.5 hours, 46.3% experienced a good stroke outcome. Lifetime discounted QALYs and costs were 5.312 and $88,247 for the no treatment strategy and 5.342 and $90,869 for the MRI-based strategy, resulting in an ICER of $88,000/QALY. Results were sensitive to variations in patient- and provider-specific factors such as sleep duration, hospital travel and door-to-needle times, as well as onset probability distribution, MRI specificity, and mRS utility values.Our model-based findings suggest that an MRI-based treatment strategy for this population could be cost-effective and quantifies the impact that patient- and provider-specific factors, such as sleep duration, hospital travel and door-to-needle times, could have on the optimal decision for wake-up stroke patients.

  2. EFFICIENCY AND COST MODELLING OF THERMAL POWER PLANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Péter Bihari

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The proper characterization of energy suppliers is one of the most important components in the modelling of the supply/demand relations of the electricity market. Power generation capacity i. e. power plants constitute the supply side of the relation in the electricity market. The supply of power stations develops as the power stations attempt to achieve the greatest profit possible with the given prices and other limitations. The cost of operation and the cost of load increment are thus the most important characteristics of their behaviour on the market. In most electricity market models, however, it is not taken into account that the efficiency of a power station also depends on the level of the load, on the type and age of the power plant, and on environmental considerations. The trade in electricity on the free market cannot rely on models where these essential parameters are omitted. Such an incomplete model could lead to a situation where a particular power station would be run either only at its full capacity or else be entirely deactivated depending on the prices prevailing on the free market. The reality is rather that the marginal cost of power generation might also be described by a function using the efficiency function. The derived marginal cost function gives the supply curve of the power station. The load level dependent efficiency function can be used not only for market modelling, but also for determining the pollutant and CO2 emissions of the power station, as well as shedding light on the conditions for successfully entering the market. Based on the measurement data our paper presents mathematical models that might be used for the determination of the load dependent efficiency functions of coal, oil, or gas fuelled power stations (steam turbine, gas turbine, combined cycle and IC engine based combined heat and power stations. These efficiency functions could also contribute to modelling market conditions and determining the

  3. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  4. A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altay, Nezih; Prasad, Sameer; Tata, Jasmine

    2013-07-01

    The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non-linear trade-offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

  5. An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

    KAUST Repository

    Sørbye, Sigrunn H.

    2017-09-18

    Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood-based approach is ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{2})$, exploiting the Toeplitz structure of the covariance matrix. In most realistic cases, we do not observe the fGn process directly but only through indirect Gaussian observations, so the Toeplitz structure is easily lost and the computational cost increases to ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{3})$. This paper presents an approximate fGn model of ${\\\\mathcal O}(n)$ computational cost, both with direct or indirect Gaussian observations, with or without conditioning. This is achieved by approximating fGn with a weighted sum of independent first-order autoregressive processes, fitting the parameters of the approximation to match the autocorrelation function of the fGn model. The resulting approximation is stationary despite being Markov and gives a remarkably accurate fit using only four components. The performance of the approximate fGn model is demonstrated in simulations and two real data examples.

  6. A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Models in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksson, Martin; Jindal, Ramandeep; Sternhufvud, Catarina; Bergenheim, Klas; Sörstadius, Elisabeth; Willis, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Critiques of cost-effectiveness modelling in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) are scarce and are often undertaken in combination with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) models. However, T1DM is a separate disease, and it is therefore important to appraise modelling methods in T1DM. This review identified published economic models in T1DM and provided an overview of the characteristics and capabilities of available models, thus enabling a discussion of best-practice modelling approaches in T1DM. A systematic review of Embase(®), MEDLINE(®), MEDLINE(®) In-Process, and NHS EED was conducted to identify available models in T1DM. Key conferences and health technology assessment (HTA) websites were also reviewed. The characteristics of each model (e.g. model structure, simulation method, handling of uncertainty, incorporation of treatment effect, data for risk equations, and validation procedures, based on information in the primary publication) were extracted, with a focus on model capabilities. We identified 13 unique models. Overall, the included studies varied greatly in scope as well as in the quality and quantity of information reported, but six of the models (Archimedes, CDM [Core Diabetes Model], CRC DES [Cardiff Research Consortium Discrete Event Simulation], DCCT [Diabetes Control and Complications Trial], Sheffield, and EAGLE [Economic Assessment of Glycaemic control and Long-term Effects of diabetes]) were the most rigorous and thoroughly reported. Most models were Markov based, and cohort and microsimulation methods were equally common. All of the more comprehensive models employed microsimulation methods. Model structure varied widely, with the more holistic models providing a comprehensive approach to microvascular and macrovascular events, as well as including adverse events. The majority of studies reported a lifetime horizon, used a payer perspective, and had the capability for sensitivity analysis. Several models have been developed that provide useful

  7. [Socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease using the cost-of-illness model: applying the QALY method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hosung; Lee, Suehyung; Kim, Jong Soo; Kim, Jinsuk; Han, Kyu Hong

    2010-07-01

    This study estimated the annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 from a societal perspective and using a cost-of-illness method. Our model employed a comprehensive set of diagnostic disease codes to define food-borne diseases with using the Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) reimbursement data. This study classified the food borne illness as three types of symptoms according to the severity of the illness: mild, moderate, severe. In addition to the traditional method of assessing the cost-of-illness, the study included measures to account for the lost quality of life. We estimated the cost of the lost quality of life using quality-adjusted life years and a visual analog scale. The direct cost included medical and medication costs, and the non-medical costs included transportation costs, caregiver's cost and administration costs. The lost productivity costs included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death. The study found the estimated annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 were 954.9 billion won (735.3 billion won-996.9 billion won). The medical cost was 73.4 - 76.8% of the cost, the lost productivity cost was 22.6% and the cost of the lost quality of life was 26.0%. Most of the cost-of-illness studies are known to have underestimated the actual socioeconomic costs of the subjects, and these studies excluded many important social costs, such as the value of pain, suffering and functional disability. The study addressed the uncertainty related to estimating the socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease as well as the updated cost estimates. Our estimates could contribute to develop and evaluate policies for food-borne disease.

  8. A longitudinal cohort study of the relationship between Thimerosal-containing hepatitis B vaccination and specific delays in development in the United States: Assessment of attributable risk and lifetime care costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Geier

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological evidence suggests a link between mercury (Hg exposure from Thimerosal-containing vaccines and specific delays in development. A hypothesis-testing longitudinal cohort study (n = 49,835 using medical records in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between exposure to Hg from Thimerosal-containing hepatitis B vaccines (T-HBVs administered at specific intervals in the first 6 months of life and specific delays in development [International Classification of Disease, 9th revision (ICD-9: 315.xx] among children born between 1991 and 1994 and continuously enrolled from birth for at least 5.81 years. Infants receiving increased Hg doses from T-HBVs administered within the first month, the first 2 months, and the first 6 months of life were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with specific delays in development than infants receiving no Hg doses from T-HBVs. During the decade in which T-HBVs were routinely recommended and administered to US infants (1991–2001, an estimated 0.5–1 million additional US children were diagnosed with specific delays in development as a consequence of 25 μg or 37.5 μg organic Hg from T-HBVs administered within the first 6 months of life. The resulting lifetime costs to the United States may exceed $1 trillion.

  9. Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination, Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flem, Elmira; Latipov, Renat; Kuatbaeva, Ajnagul; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

    2014-01-01

    The government of Kazakhstan, a middle-income country in Central Asia, is considering the introduction of rotavirus vaccination into its national immunization program. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination spanning 20 years by using a synthesis of dynamic transmission models accounting for herd protection. We found that a vaccination program with 90% coverage would prevent ≈880 rotavirus deaths and save an average of 54,784 life-years for children <5 years of age. Indirect protection accounted for 40% and 60% reduction in severe and mild rotavirus gastroenteritis, respectively. Cost per life year gained was US $18,044 from a societal perspective and US $23,892 from a health care perspective. Comparing the 2 key parameters of cost-effectiveness, mortality rates and vaccine cost at costs would be entirely offset. To further evaluate efficacy of a vaccine program, benefits of indirect protection conferred by vaccination warrant further study. PMID:24378188

  10. An opportunity cost model of subjective effort and task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurzban, Robert; Duckworth, Angela; Kable, Joseph W.; Myers, Justus

    2013-01-01

    Why does performing certain tasks cause the aversive experience of mental effort and concomitant deterioration in task performance? One explanation posits a physical resource that is depleted over time. We propose an alternate explanation that centers on mental representations of the costs and benefits associated with task performance. Specifically, certain computational mechanisms, especially those associated with executive function, can be deployed for only a limited number of simultaneous tasks at any given moment. Consequently, the deployment of these computational mechanisms carries an opportunity cost – that is, the next-best use to which these systems might be put. We argue that the phenomenology of effort can be understood as the felt output of these cost/benefit computations. In turn, the subjective experience of effort motivates reduced deployment of these computational mechanisms in the service of the present task. These opportunity cost representations, then, together with other cost/benefit calculations, determine effort expended and, everything else equal, result in performance reductions. In making our case for this position, we review alternate explanations both for the phenomenology of effort associated with these tasks and for performance reductions over time. Likewise, we review the broad range of relevant empirical results from across subdisciplines, especially psychology and neuroscience. We hope that our proposal will help to build links among the diverse fields that have been addressing similar questions from different perspectives, and we emphasize ways in which alternate models might be empirically distinguished. PMID:24304775

  11. Lifetime of a black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlitz, R.D.; Willey, R.S.

    1987-01-01

    We study the constraints placed by quantum mechanics upon the lifetime of a black hole. In the context of a moving-mirror analog model for the Hawking radiation process, we conclude that the period of Hawking radiation must be followed by a much longer period during which the remnant mass (of order m/sub P/) may be radiated away. We are able to place a lower bound on the time required for this radiation process, which translates into a lower bound for the lifetime of the black hole. Particles which are emitted during the decay of the remnant, like the particles which comprise the Hawking flux, may be uncorrelated with each other. But each particle emitted from the decaying remnant is correlated with one particle emitted as Hawking radiation. The state which results after the remnant has evaporated is one which locally appears to be thermal, but which on a much larger scale is marked by extensive correlations

  12. Luminosity lifetime in the Tevatron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, G.; Finley, D.; Johnson, R.P.; Kerns, Q.; McCarthy, J.; Siemann, R.; Zhang, P.

    1988-01-01

    Since the inauguration of colliding proton-antiproton operations in 1987, the Tevatron has exhibited luminosity lifetimes shorter than expected. During a typical colliding beam storage period, called a store, luminosity is calculated periodically by measuring the charge and emittances of each bunch. The growth of the transverse bunch emittances is the dominant cause of luminosity deterioration. Throughout, this period, the position spectrum of the bunches exhibited betatron signals larger than expected from Schottky noise. A model assuming externally driven betatron oscillations explains both the betatron signals and the emittance growth. A program is underway to improve the Tevatron luminosity lifetime. The abort kickers have been identified as sources of emittance growth, and some quadrupole power supplies are further candidates. Because the horizontal dispersion through the RF cavities is nonzero, RF phase noise has been investigated. Noise in the main dipole regulation circuit has also been studied. 13 refs., 4 figs

  13. Predictive models reduce talent development costs in female gymnastics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pion, Johan; Hohmann, Andreas; Liu, Tianbiao; Lenoir, Matthieu; Segers, Veerle

    2017-04-01

    This retrospective study focuses on the comparison of different predictive models based on the results of a talent identification test battery for female gymnasts. We studied to what extent these models have the potential to optimise selection procedures, and at the same time reduce talent development costs in female artistic gymnastics. The dropout rate of 243 female elite gymnasts was investigated, 5 years past talent selection, using linear (discriminant analysis) and non-linear predictive models (Kohonen feature maps and multilayer perceptron). The coaches classified 51.9% of the participants correct. Discriminant analysis improved the correct classification to 71.6% while the non-linear technique of Kohonen feature maps reached 73.7% correctness. Application of the multilayer perceptron even classified 79.8% of the gymnasts correctly. The combination of different predictive models for talent selection can avoid deselection of high-potential female gymnasts. The selection procedure based upon the different statistical analyses results in decrease of 33.3% of cost because the pool of selected athletes can be reduced to 92 instead of 138 gymnasts (as selected by the coaches). Reduction of the costs allows the limited resources to be fully invested in the high-potential athletes.

  14. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  15. Theoretical calculations of positron lifetimes for metal oxides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuno, Masataka; Araki, Hideki; Shirai, Yasuharu

    2004-01-01

    Our recent positron lifetime measurements for metal oxides suggest that positron lifetimes of bulk state in metal oxides are shorter than previously reported values. We have performed theoretical calculations of positron lifetimes for bulk and vacancy states in MgO and ZnO using first-principles electronic structure calculations and discuss the validity of positron lifetime calculations for insulators. By comparing the calculated positron lifetimes to the experimental values, it wa found that the semiconductor model well reproduces the experimental positron lifetime. The longer positron lifetime previously reported can be considered to arise from not only the bulk but also from the vacancy induced by impurities. In the case of cation vacancy, the calculated positron lifetime based on semiconductor model is shorter than the experimental value, which suggests that the inward relaxation occurs around the cation vacancy trapping the positron. (author)

  16. Costs of health care across primary care models in Ontario

    OpenAIRE

    Laberge, Maude; Wodchis, Walter P; Barnsley, Jan; Laporte, Audrey

    2017-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between newly introduced primary care models in Ontario, Canada, and patients? primary care and total health care costs. A specific focus is on the payment mechanisms for primary care physicians, i.e. fee-for-service (FFS), enhanced-FFS, and blended capitation, and whether providers practiced as part of a multidisciplinary team. Methods Utilization data for a one year period was measured using administrative databases for a 1...

  17. A global economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of new treatments for advanced breast cancer in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchemin, C; Letarte, N; Mathurin, K; Yelle, L; Lachaine, J

    2016-06-01

    Objective Considering the increasing number of treatment options for metastatic breast cancer (MBC), it is important to develop high-quality methods to assess the cost-effectiveness of new anti-cancer drugs. This study aims to develop a global economic model that could be used as a benchmark for the economic evaluation of new therapies for MBC. Methods The Global Pharmacoeconomics of Metastatic Breast Cancer (GPMBC) model is a Markov model that was constructed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of new treatments for MBC from a Canadian healthcare system perspective over a lifetime horizon. Specific parameters included in the model are cost of drug treatment, survival outcomes, and incidence of treatment-related adverse events (AEs). Global parameters are patient characteristics, health states utilities, disutilities, and costs associated with treatment-related AEs, as well as costs associated with drug administration, medical follow-up, and end-of-life care. The GPMBC model was tested and validated in a specific context, by assessing the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus letrozole compared with other widely used first-line therapies for post-menopausal women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) and epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) MBC. Results When tested, the GPMBC model led to incremental cost-utility ratios of CA$131 811 per QALY, CA$56 211 per QALY, and CA$102 477 per QALY for the comparison of lapatinib plus letrozole vs letrozole alone, trastuzumab plus anastrozole, and anastrozole alone, respectively. Results of the model testing were quite similar to those obtained by Delea et al., who also assessed the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib in combination with letrozole in HR+/HER2 + MBC in Canada, thus suggesting that the GPMBC model can replicate results of well-conducted economic evaluations. Conclusions The GPMBC model can be very valuable as it allows a quick and valid assessment of the cost

  18. Increasing the lifetime of fuel cell catalysts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latsuzbaia, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, I discuss a novel idea of fuel cell catalyst regeneration to increase lifetime of the PEM fuel cell electrode/catalyst operation and, therefore, reduce the catalyst costs. As many of the catalyst degradation mechanisms are difficult to avoid, the regeneration is alternative option to

  19. Lifetime oriented maintenance planning in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straub, A.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we set up a framework for lifetime oriented maintenance planning as an outcome and input for strategic housing stock management. The maintenance planning holds maintenance activities and costs in the longer term. We consider the maintenance planning as a tool to calculate and implement

  20. A Cost Model for Integrated Logistic Support Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Elena Nenni

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An Integrated Logistic Support (ILS service has the objective of improving a system’s efficiency and availability for the life cycle. The system constructor offers the service to the customer, and she becomes the Contractor Logistic Support (CLS. The aim of this paper is to propose an approach to support the CLS in the budget formulation. Specific goals of the model are the provision of the annual cost of ILS activities through a specific cost model and a comprehensive examination of expected benefits, costs and savings under alternative ILS strategies. A simple example derived from an industrial application is also provided to illustrate the idea. Scientific literature is lacking in the topic and documents from the military are just dealing with the issue of performance measurement. Moreover, they are obviously focused on the customer’s perspective. Other scientific papers are general and focused only on maintenance or life cycle management. The model developed in this paper approaches the problem from the perspective of the CLS, and it is specifically tailored on the main issues of an ILS service.

  1. Parabolic Trough Reference Plant for Cost Modeling with the Solar Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchi, C.

    2010-07-01

    This report describes a component-based cost model developed for parabolic trough solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assisted by WorleyParsons Group Inc., for use with NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM). This report includes an overview and explanation of the model, two summary contract reports from WorleyParsons, and an Excel spreadsheet for use with SAM. The cost study uses a reference plant with a 100-MWe capacity and six hours of thermal energy storage. Wet-cooling and dry-cooling configurations are considered. The spreadsheet includes capital and operating cost by component to allow users to estimate the impact of changes in component costs.

  2. Precision lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanner, C.E.

    1994-01-01

    Precision measurements of atomic lifetimes provide important information necessary for testing atomic theory. The authors employ resonant laser excitation of a fast atomic beam to measure excited state lifetimes by observing the decay-in-flight of the emitted fluorescence. A similar technique was used by Gaupp, et al., who reported measurements with precisions of less than 0.2%. Their program includes lifetime measurements of the low lying p states in alkali and alkali like systems. Motivation for this work comes from a need to test the atomic many-body-perturbation theory (MBPT) that is necessary for interpretation of parity nonconservation experiments in atomic cesium. The authors have measured the cesium 6p 2 P 1/2 and 6p 2 P 3/2 state lifetimes to be 34.934±0.094 ns and 30.499±0.070 ns respectively. With minor changes to the apparatus, they have extended their measurements to include the lithium 2p 2 P 1/2 and 2p 2 P 3/2 states

  3. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  4. Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

    2017-09-01

    To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright

  5. Assessment of a Low-Cost Ultrasound Pericardiocentesis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Campo dell'Orto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The use of ultrasound during resuscitation is emphasized in the latest European resuscitation council guidelines of 2013 to identify treatable conditions such as pericardial tamponade. The recommended standard treatment of tamponade in various guidelines is pericardiocentesis. As ultrasound guidance lowers the complication rates and increases the patient’s safety, pericardiocentesis should be performed under ultrasound guidance. Acute care physicians actually need to train emergency pericardiocentesis. Methods. We describe in detail a pericardiocentesis ultrasound model, using materials at a cost of about 60 euros. During training courses of focused echocardiography n=67, participants tested the phantom and completed a 16-item questionnaire, assessing the model using a visual analogue scale (VAS. Results. Eleven of fourteen questions were answered with a mean VAS score higher than 60% and thus regarded as showing the strengths of the model. Unrealistically outer appearance and heart shape were rated as weakness of the model. A total mean VAS score of all questions of 63% showed that participants gained confidence for further interventions. Conclusions. Our low-cost pericardiocentesis model, which can be easily constructed, may serve as an effective training tool of ultrasound-guided pericardiocentesis for acute and critical care physicians.

  6. Assessment of a Low-Cost Ultrasound Pericardiocentesis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo dell'Orto, Marco; Hempel, Dorothea; Starzetz, Agnieszka; Seibel, Armin; Hannemann, Ulf; Walcher, Felix; Breitkreutz, Raoul

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. The use of ultrasound during resuscitation is emphasized in the latest European resuscitation council guidelines of 2013 to identify treatable conditions such as pericardial tamponade. The recommended standard treatment of tamponade in various guidelines is pericardiocentesis. As ultrasound guidance lowers the complication rates and increases the patient's safety, pericardiocentesis should be performed under ultrasound guidance. Acute care physicians actually need to train emergency pericardiocentesis. Methods. We describe in detail a pericardiocentesis ultrasound model, using materials at a cost of about 60 euros. During training courses of focused echocardiography n = 67, participants tested the phantom and completed a 16-item questionnaire, assessing the model using a visual analogue scale (VAS). Results. Eleven of fourteen questions were answered with a mean VAS score higher than 60% and thus regarded as showing the strengths of the model. Unrealistically outer appearance and heart shape were rated as weakness of the model. A total mean VAS score of all questions of 63% showed that participants gained confidence for further interventions. Conclusions. Our low-cost pericardiocentesis model, which can be easily constructed, may serve as an effective training tool of ultrasound-guided pericardiocentesis for acute and critical care physicians. PMID:24288616

  7. Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantilla Herrera, Ana Maria; Neal, Bruce; Zheng, Miaobing; Lal, Anita; Sacks, Gary

    2017-01-01

    Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL (package size cap), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs (energy reduction). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight (package size cap: 0.12 kg; energy reduction: 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained (package size cap: 73,883; energy reduction: 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million (package size cap) and AUD 1.4 billion (energy reduction). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were “dominant”, and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent “value for money” as obesity prevention measures in Australia. PMID:28878175

  8. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinde, S; McKenna, C; Whyte, S; Peake, M D; Callister, M E J; Rogers, T; Sculpher, M

    2015-06-30

    Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the 'worried-well' population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of £13 660 and £18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the 'worried-well' population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population.

  9. Quantum lifetime in electron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, A.W.

    1977-02-01

    One of the mechanisms which contribute to beam lifetime in electron storage rings is the quantum emission of energetic photons causing particles to be lost from the rf bucket. This quantum lifetime is among other things important in defining the required aperture in a storage ring. An approximate expression of quantum lifetime, predicted by a one-dimensional model which takes into account only the betatron motion, has been used in most storage ring designs. If the beam is aperture-limited at a position with nonzero dispersion, both the betatron and synchrotron motions have to be included and a two-dimensional model must be used. An exact expression of quantum lifetime for the one-dimensional case and an approximate expression for the two-dimensional case are given

  10. Quantum lifetime in electron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, A.W.

    1977-01-01

    One of the mechanisms which contributes to beam lifetime in electron storage rings is the quantum emission of energetic photons causing particles to be lost from the rf bucket. This quantum lifetime is among other things important in defining the required aperture in a storage ring. An approximate expression of quantum lifetime, predicted by a one-dimensional model which takes into account only the betatron motion, has been used in most storage ring designs. If the beam is aperture-limited at a position with nonzero dispersion, both the betatron and synchrotron motions have to be included, and a two-dimensional model must be used. An exact expression of quantum lifetime for the one-dimensional case and an approximate expression for the two-dimensional case are given

  11. Forest fuel - economy and models for cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Anders.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to develop guidelines for the R and D work within Skogskraft with the aim of improving the efficiency of the investigatory work. The report mainly concerns logging waste. The contents are as follows; Terminology - definitions: This section includes a brief description of wood fuels with regard to terminology, definitions, production and marketing. Units of measurement: Different units of measurement are descrived and their relationship to forestry, sawmills and consumers of wood fuels. An account is also given of effective thermal values and formulas for calculations of the energy content for different wood fuels. Calculation models, analyses: This section discusses different models and standards for calculating machine and manual costs. In addition, views are given on cost analysis and certain guidelines with regard to overhead costs. Actors and systems: There is a risk that technical problems receive a far too dominant role in relation to problems which concern organisation and structure. Consequently, it is important to define the actors and to illustrate the different driving forces and tensions that may occur. Seven different actors/interested parties have been described and analysed with regard to primary and secondary interests in ecological, technical and economic questions. Preparation of reports: Certain recommendations have been given with regard to formal requirements and quality requirements

  12. Landfill mining: Development of a cost simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsberger, Tanja; Pinkel, Michael; Polansek, Stephanie; Sarc, Renato; Hermann, Robert; Pomberger, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Landfill mining permits recovering secondary raw materials from landfills. Whether this purpose is economically feasible, however, is a matter of various aspects. One is the amount of recoverable secondary raw material (like metals) that can be exploited with a profit. Other influences are the costs for excavation, for processing the waste at the landfill site and for paying charges on the secondary disposal of waste. Depending on the objectives of a landfill mining project (like the recovery of a ferrous and/or a calorific fraction) these expenses and revenues are difficult to assess in advance. This situation complicates any previous assessment of the economic feasibility and is the reason why many landfills that might be suitable for landfill mining are continuingly operated as active landfills, generating aftercare costs and leaving potential hazards to later generations. This article presents a newly developed simulation model for landfill mining projects. It permits identifying the quantities and qualities of output flows that can be recovered by mining and by mobile on-site processing of the waste based on treatment equipment selected by the landfill operator. Thus, charges for disposal and expected revenues from secondary raw materials can be assessed. Furthermore, investment, personnel, operation, servicing and insurance costs are assessed and displayed, based on the selected mobile processing procedure and its throughput, among other things. For clarity, the simulation model is described in this article using the example of a real Austrian sanitary landfill. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. Results from a partial lifetime test of a 40 mm-aperture 17 mm SSC model dipole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radusewicz, P.; Devred, A.; Bush, T.; Coombes, R.; DiMarco, J.; Goodzeit, C.; Kuzminski, J.; Ogitsu, T.; Potter, J.; Puglisi, M.; Sanger, P.; Schermer, R.; Tompkins, J.; Yu, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Zheng, H.; Anerella, M.; Cottingham, J.; Ganetis, G.; Garber, M.; Ghosh, A.; Greene, A.; Gupta, R.; Jain, A.; Kahn, S.; Kelly, E.; Morgan, G.; Muratore, J.; Prodell, A.; Rehak, M.; Roher, E.P.; Sampson, W.; Shutt, R.; Thomas, R.; Thompson, P.; Wanderer, P.; Willen, E.; Bleadon, M.; Hanft, R.; Kuchnir, M.; Mantsch, P.; Mazur, P.O.; Orris, D.; Peterson, T.; Strait, J.; Royett, J.; Scanlan, R.; Taylor, C.

    1992-03-01

    A 40-mm-aperture, 17-m-long Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) model dipole was assembled at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and tested initially at Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) and later at BNL. At BNL an extended cycle test was devised to examine the magnet's performance through numerous cold tests and thermal cycles. This paper discusses the magnet's mechanical and quench performance and magnet field measurements during the tests

  14. Nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation and sensitivity analysis of unit costs on the basis of an equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Ko, W. I.; You, S. R.; Gao, R. X.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the difference in the value of the nuclear fuel cycle cost calculated by the deterministic and probabilistic methods on the basis of an equilibrium model. Calculating using the deterministic method, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor) nuclear fuel cycle cost, including the reactor cost, were found to be 66.41 mills/kWh and 77.82 mills/kWh, respectively (1 mill = one thousand of a dollar, i.e., 10-3 $). This is because the cost of SFR is considerably expensive. Calculating again using the probabilistic method, however, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR nuclear fuel cycle cost, excluding the reactor cost, were found be 7.47 mills/kWh and 6.40 mills/kWh, respectively, on the basis of the most likely value. This is because the nuclear fuel cycle cost is significantly affected by the standard deviation and the mean of the unit cost that includes uncertainty. Thus, it is judged that not only the deterministic method, but also the probabilistic method, would also be necessary to evaluate the nuclear fuel cycle cost. By analyzing the sensitivity of the unit cost in each phase of the nuclear fuel cycle, it was found that the uranium unit price is the most influential factor in determining nuclear fuel cycle costs.

  15. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  16. Modelling User-Costs in Life Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2008-01-01

    The importance of including user's costs in Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit analysis of structures is discussed in this paper. This is especially for bridges of great importance. Repair or/and failure of a bridge will usually result in user costs greater than the repair or replacement costs of the bridge...

  17. The cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening for Cystic Fibrosis: an analysis of alternative scenarios using a decision model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Karen

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis is widely debated in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, but the evidence available to inform policy is limited. This paper explores the cost-effectiveness of adding screening for cystic fibrosis to an existing routine neonatal screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria, under alternative scenarios and assumptions. Methods The study is based on a decision model comparing screening to no screening in terms of a number of outcome measures, including diagnosis of cystic fibrosis, life-time treatment costs, life years and QALYs gained. The setting is a hypothetical UK health region without an existing neonatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis. Results Under initial assumptions, neonatal screening (using an immunoreactive trypsin/DNA two stage screening protocol costs £5,387 per infant diagnosed, or £1.83 per infant screened (1998 costs. Neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis produces an incremental cost-effectiveness of £6,864 per QALY gained, in our base case scenario (an assumed benefit of a 6 month delay in the emergence of symptoms. A difference of 11 months or more in the emergence of symptoms (and mean survival means neonatal screening is both less costly and produces better outcomes than no screening. Conclusion Neonatal screening is expensive as a method of diagnosis. Neonatal screening may be a cost-effective intervention if the hypothesised delays in the onset of symptoms are confirmed. Implementing both antenatal and neonatal screening would undermine potential economic benefits, since a reduction in the birth incidence of cystic fibrosis would reduce the cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening.

  18. Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc; Portnoy, Allison; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2014-07-01

    Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support. We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects. In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690,000 cases of cervical cancer and 420,000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases

  19. Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

    OpenAIRE

    Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

  20. Long-term economic benefits attributed to IVF-conceived children: a lifetime tax calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Pollard, Michael S; Hoorens, Stijn; Kaplan, Brian R; Oskowitz, Selwyn P; Silber, Sherman J

    2008-09-01

    To evaluate whether lifetime future net tax revenues from an in vitro fertilization (IVF)-conceived child are substantial enough to warrant public subsidy relative to the mean IVF treatment costs required to obtain 1 live birth. Mathematical generational accounting model. The model estimates direct financial interactions between the IVF-conceived child and the government during the child's projected lifetime. In the model, we accrue IVF costs required to conceive the child to the government, and then we estimate future net tax revenue to the federal and state governments from this individual, offset by direct financial transfers from the government (eg, child allowances, education, Medicare, and Social Security). We discount lifetime costs and gross tax payments at Treasury Department rates to establish the present value of investing in IVF. We applied US Congressional Budget Office projected changes in tax rates over the course of the model. An IVF-conceived child, average in every respect (eg, future earnings, healthcare consumption, and life expectancy), represents a net positive return to the government. Based on an average employed individual born in 2005, the projected net lifetime tax contribution is US $606,200. Taking into consideration IVF costs and all direct financial interactions, the net present value is US $155,870. Lifetime net taxes paid from a child relative to the child's initial IVF investment represent a 700% net return to the government in discounted US dollars from fully employed individuals. This suggests that removing barriers to IVF would have positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial effect on overall economic growth.

  1. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  2. Renewable Energy Cost Modeling: A Toolkit for Establishing Cost-Based Incentives in the United States; March 2010 -- March 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gifford, J. S.; Grace, R. C.; Rickerson, W. H.

    2011-05-01

    This report is intended to serve as a resource for policymakers who wish to learn more about establishing cost-based incentives. The report will identify key renewable energy cost modeling options, highlight the policy implications of choosing one approach over the other, and present recommendations on the optimal characteristics of a model to calculate rates for cost-based incentives, feed-in tariffs (FITs), or similar policies. These recommendations will be utilized in designing the Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST). Three CREST models will be publicly available and capable of analyzing the cost of energy associated with solar, wind, and geothermal electricity generators. The CREST models will be developed for use by state policymakers, regulators, utilities, developers, and other stakeholders to assist them in current and future rate-setting processes for both FIT and other renewable energy incentive payment structures and policy analyses.

  3. The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Lennert Veerman

    Full Text Available This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20 Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000 and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000 for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million. The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

  4. The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Sacks, Gary; Antonopoulos, Nicole; Martin, Jane

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

  5. Cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary care in mild to moderate chronic kidney disease in the United States: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Elizabeth; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.

    2018-01-01

    Background Multidisciplinary care (MDC) programs have been proposed as a way to alleviate the cost and morbidity associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the US. Methods and findings We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a theoretical Medicare-based MDC program for CKD compared to usual CKD care in Medicare beneficiaries with stage 3 and 4 CKD between 45 and 84 years old in the US. The program used nephrologists, advanced practitioners, educators, dieticians, and social workers. From Medicare claims and published literature, we developed a novel deterministic Markov model for CKD progression and calibrated it to long-term risks of mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease. We then used the model to project accrued discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over patients’ remaining lifetime. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDC, or the cost of the intervention per QALY gained. MDC added 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.42) QALYs over usual care, costing $51,285 per QALY gained (net monetary benefit of $23,100 at a threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained; 95% CI: $6,252, $44,323). In all subpopulations analyzed, ICERs ranged from $42,663 to $72,432 per QALY gained. MDC was generally more cost-effective in patients with higher urine albumin excretion. Although ICERs were higher in younger patients, MDC could yield greater improvements in health in younger than older patients. MDC remained cost-effective when we decreased its effectiveness to 25% of the base case or increased the cost 5-fold. The program costed less than $70,000 per QALY in 95% of probabilistic sensitivity analyses and less than $87,500 per QALY in 99% of analyses. Limitations of our study include its theoretical nature and being less generalizable to populations at low risk for progression to ESRD. We did not study the potential impact of MDC on hospitalization (cardiovascular or other). Conclusions Our model estimates that a Medicare-funded MDC

  6. Cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary care in mild to moderate chronic kidney disease in the United States: A modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene Lin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Multidisciplinary care (MDC programs have been proposed as a way to alleviate the cost and morbidity associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD in the US.We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a theoretical Medicare-based MDC program for CKD compared to usual CKD care in Medicare beneficiaries with stage 3 and 4 CKD between 45 and 84 years old in the US. The program used nephrologists, advanced practitioners, educators, dieticians, and social workers. From Medicare claims and published literature, we developed a novel deterministic Markov model for CKD progression and calibrated it to long-term risks of mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease. We then used the model to project accrued discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs over patients' remaining lifetime. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER of MDC, or the cost of the intervention per QALY gained. MDC added 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.42 QALYs over usual care, costing $51,285 per QALY gained (net monetary benefit of $23,100 at a threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained; 95% CI: $6,252, $44,323. In all subpopulations analyzed, ICERs ranged from $42,663 to $72,432 per QALY gained. MDC was generally more cost-effective in patients with higher urine albumin excretion. Although ICERs were higher in younger patients, MDC could yield greater improvements in health in younger than older patients. MDC remained cost-effective when we decreased its effectiveness to 25% of the base case or increased the cost 5-fold. The program costed less than $70,000 per QALY in 95% of probabilistic sensitivity analyses and less than $87,500 per QALY in 99% of analyses. Limitations of our study include its theoretical nature and being less generalizable to populations at low risk for progression to ESRD. We did not study the potential impact of MDC on hospitalization (cardiovascular or other.Our model estimates that a Medicare-funded MDC program could reduce the need for

  7. Costs and cost effectiveness of different strategies for chlamydia screening and partner notification: an economic and mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Katy; Adams, Elisabeth; Grant, Arabella; Macleod, John; Bell, Gill; Clarke, Jan; Horner, Paddy

    2011-01-04

    To compare the cost, cost effectiveness, and sex equity of different intervention strategies within the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme. To develop a tool for calculating cost effectiveness of chlamydia control programmes at a local, national, or international level. An economic and mathematical modelling study with cost effectiveness analysis. Costs were restricted to those of screening and partner notification from the perspective of the NHS and excluded patient costs, the costs of reinfection, and costs of complications arising from initial infection. England. Population Individuals eligible for the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. Cost effectiveness of National Chlamydia Screening Programme in 2008-9 (as cost per individual tested, cost per positive diagnosis, total cost of screening, number screened, number infected, sex ratio of those tested and treated). Comparison of baseline programme with two different interventions-(i) increased coverage of primary screening in men and (ii) increased efficacy of partner notification. In 2008-9 screening was estimated to cost about £46.3m in total and £506 per infection treated. Provision for partner notification within the screening programme cost between £9 and £27 per index case, excluding treatment and testing. The model results suggest that increasing male screening coverage from 8% (baseline value) to 24% (to match female coverage) would cost an extra £22.9m and increase the cost per infection treated to £528. In contrast, increasing partner notification efficacy from 0.4 (baseline value) to 0.8 partners per index case would cost an extra £3.3m and would reduce the cost per infection diagnosed to £449. Increasing screening coverage to 24% in men would cost over six times as much as increasing partner notification to 0.8 but only treat twice as many additional infections. In the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme increasing the effectiveness of partner notification is likely

  8. A model to forecast data centre infrastructure costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernet, R.

    2015-12-01

    The computing needs in the HEP community are increasing steadily, but the current funding situation in many countries is tight. As a consequence experiments, data centres, and funding agencies have to rationalize resource usage and expenditures. CC-IN2P3 (Lyon, France) provides computing resources to many experiments including LHC, and is a major partner for astroparticle projects like LSST, CTA or Euclid. The financial cost to accommodate all these experiments is substantial and has to be planned well in advance for funding and strategic reasons. In that perspective, leveraging infrastructure expenses, electric power cost and hardware performance observed in our site over the last years, we have built a model that integrates these data and provides estimates of the investments that would be required to cater to the experiments for the mid-term future. We present how our model is built and the expenditure forecast it produces, taking into account the experiment roadmaps. We also examine the resource growth predicted by our model over the next years assuming a flat-budget scenario.

  9. Accelerated lifetime testing methodology for lifetime estimation of Lithium-ion batteries used in augmented wind power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stan, Ana-Irina

    2013-01-01

    The development of lifetime estimation models for Lithium-ion battery cells, which are working under highly variable mission profiles characteristic for wind power plant applications, requires a lot of expenditures and time resources. Therefore, batteries have to be tested under accelerated...... lifetime ageing conditions. This paper presents a three-stage methodology used for accelerated lifetime testing of Lithium-ion batteries. The results obtained at the end of the accelerated ageing process can be used for the parametrization of a performance-degradation lifetime model. In the proposed...... methodology both calendar and cycling lifetime tests are considered since both components are influencing the lifetime of Lithium-ion batteries. The methodology proposes also a lifetime model verification stage, where Lithium-ion battery cells are tested at normal operating conditions using an application...

  10. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Model for Evaluating and Planning Secondary Vocational Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin Eun

    1977-01-01

    This paper conceptualizes a cost-effectiveness analysis and describes a cost-effectiveness analysis model for secondary vocational programs. It generates three kinds of cost-effectiveness measures: program effectiveness, cost efficiency, and cost-effectiveness and/or performance ratio. (Author)

  11. Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

  12. Sexy sons from re-mating do not recoup the direct costs of harmful male interactions in the Drosophila melanogaster laboratory model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orteiza, N; Linder, J E; Rice, W R

    2005-09-01

    The empirical foundation for sexual conflict theory is the data from many different taxa demonstrating that females are harmed while interacting with males. However, the interpretation of this keystone evidence has been challenged because females may more than counterbalance the direct costs of interacting with males by the indirect benefits of obtaining higher quality genes for their offspring. A quantification of this trade-off is critical to resolve the controversy and is presented here. A multi-generation fitness assay in the Drosophila melanogaster laboratory model system was used to quantify both the direct costs to females due to interactions with males and indirect benefits via sexy sons. We specifically focus on the interactions that occur between males and nonvirgin females. In the laboratory environment of our base population, females mate soon after eclosion and store sufficient sperm for their entire lifetime, yet males persistently court these nonvirgin females and frequently succeed in re-mating them. Females may benefit from these interactions despite direct costs to their lifetime fecundity if re-mating allows them to trade-up to mates of higher genetic quality and thereby secure indirect benefits for their offspring. We found that direct costs of interactions between males and nonvirgin females substantially exceeded indirect benefits through sexy sons. These data, in combination with past studies of the good genes route of indirect benefits, demonstrate that inter-sexual interactions drive sexually antagonistic co-evolution in this model system.

  13. A Model for Understanding the Relationship Between Transaction Costs and Acquisition Cost Breaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-30

    an assistant professor and received a BA in anthropology and a BA and MA in economics (2004) and a PhD in political economy and public policy (2008...between transaction costs and cost overruns. Biggs (2013) showed that as the EAC SE/PM cost ratio rises there is a statistically significant corresponding...Estimate at Completion ( EAC ) is the sum of the ACWP and the estimate to completion (ETC) for the remaining work. The ETC can be calculated using the cost

  14. Costly bilingualism model in a population with one zealot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Hyunsuk; Son, Seung-Woo

    2013-08-01

    We consider a costly bilingualism model in which one can take two strategies in parallel. We investigate how a single zealot triggers the cascading behavior and how the compatibility of the two strategies affects when interacting patterns change. First, the role of the interaction range in the cascading is studied by increasing the range from local to global. We find that people sometimes do not favor taking the superior strategy even though its payoff is higher than that of the inferior one. This is found to be caused by the local interactions rather than the global ones. Applying this model to social networks, we find that the location of the zealot is also important for larger cascading in heterogeneous networks.

  15. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mascarin, Anthony [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Hannibal, Ted [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Raghunathan, Anand [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Ivanic, Ziga [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Clark, Michael [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research’s/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.’s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  16. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mascarin, Anthony; Hannibal, Ted; Raghunathan, Anand; Ivanic, Ziga; Clark, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research's/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.'s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  17. The Cost of Being Accountable: An Objective-Referenced Program Cost Model for Educational Management--A Maryland Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holowenzak, Stephen P.; Stagmer, Robert A.

    This publication describes in detail an objective-referenced program cost model for educational management that was developed by the Maryland State Department of Education. Primary purpose of the publication is to aid educational decision-makers in developing and refining their own method of cost-pricing educational programs for use in state and…

  18. A new costing model in hospital management: time-driven activity-based costing system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öker, Figen; Özyapıcı, Hasan

    2013-01-01

    Traditional cost systems cause cost distortions because they cannot meet the requirements of today's businesses. Therefore, a new and more effective cost system is needed. Consequently, time-driven activity-based costing system has emerged. The unit cost of supplying capacity and the time needed to perform an activity are the only 2 factors considered by the system. Furthermore, this system determines unused capacity by considering practical capacity. The purpose of this article is to emphasize the efficiency of the time-driven activity-based costing system and to display how it can be applied in a health care institution. A case study was conducted in a private hospital in Cyprus. Interviews and direct observations were used to collect the data. The case study revealed that the cost of unused capacity is allocated to both open and laparoscopic (closed) surgeries. Thus, by using the time-driven activity-based costing system, managers should eliminate the cost of unused capacity so as to obtain better results. Based on the results of the study, hospital management is better able to understand the costs of different surgeries. In addition, managers can easily notice the cost of unused capacity and decide how many employees to be dismissed or directed to other productive areas.

  19. A Cost Model for Air Force Institute of Technology Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-01

    Patterson AFB OH, September 1977. ADA 047662. 16. Horngren , Charles T. Cost Accounting , A Managerial Emphasis. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc...25 S . Categorical Breakdown of AFIT Cost Matrix ....... .................. . 26 6. Elemental Breakdown of AFIT Direct Cost Category...maximum use of existing data sources such as the Air Force Accounting System for Operations. Justification for Research In past years, cost studies

  20. Ferry Lifecycle Cost Model for Federal Land Management Agencies : User's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    The Ferry Lifecycle Cost Model (model) is a spreadsheet-based sketch planning tool that estimates capital, operating, and total cost for various vessels that could be used to provide ferry service on a particular route given known service parameters....

  1. Measurements of heavy quark and lepton lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaros, J.A.

    1985-02-01

    The PEP/PETRA energy range has proved to be well-suited for the study of the lifetimes of hadrons containing the b and c quarks and the tau lepton for several reasons. First, these states comprise a large fraction of the total interaction rate in e + e - annihilation and can be cleanly identified. Second, the storage rings have operated at high luminosity and so produced these exotic states copiously. And finally, thanks to the interplay of the Fermi coupling strength, the quark and lepton masses, and the beam energy, the expected decay lengths are in the 1/2 mm range and so are comparatively easy to measure. This pleasant coincidence of cleanly identified and abundant signal with potentially large effects has made possible the first measurements of two fundamental weak couplings, tau → nu/sub tau/W and b → cW. These measurements have provided a sharp test of the standard model and allowed, for the first time, the full determination of the magnitudes of the quark mixing matrix. This paper reviews the lifetime studies made at PEP during the past year. It begins with a brief review of the three detectors, DELCO, MAC and MARK II, which have reported lifetime measurements. Next it discusses two new measurements of the tau lifetime, and briefly reviews a measurement of the D 0 lifetime. Finally, it turns to measurements of the B lifetime, which are discussed in some detail. 18 references, 14 figures, 1 table

  2. B Lifetimes and Mixing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Harold G.

    2009-01-01

    The Tevatron experiments, CDF and D0, have produced a wealth of new B-physics results since the start of Run II in 2001. We've observed new B-hadrons, seen new effects, and increased many-fold the precision with which we know the properties of b-quark systems. In these proceedings, we will discuss two of the most fruitful areas in the Tevatron B-physics program: lifetimes and mixing. We'll examine the experimental issues driving these analyses, present a summary of the latest results, and discuss prospects for the future.

  3. Cost-effectiveness of investing in sidewalks as a means of increasing physical activity: a RESIDE modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Gunn, Lucy; McCormack, Gavin R; Cobiac, Linda J; Mantilla Herrera, Ana Maria; Giles-Corti, Billie; Shiell, Alan

    2016-09-20

    Studies consistently find that supportive neighbourhood built environments increase physical activity by encouraging walking and cycling. However, evidence on the cost-effectiveness of investing in built environment interventions as a means of promoting physical activity is lacking. In this study, we assess the cost-effectiveness of increasing sidewalk availability as one means of encouraging walking. Using data from the RESIDE study in Perth, Australia, we modelled the cost impact and change in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) of installing additional sidewalks in established neighbourhoods. Estimates of the relationship between sidewalk availability and walking were taken from a previous study. Multistate life table models were used to estimate HALYs associated with changes in walking frequency and duration. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the impact of variations in population density, discount rates, sidewalk costs and the inclusion of unrelated healthcare costs in added life years. Installing and maintaining an additional 10 km of sidewalk in an average neighbourhood with 19 000 adult residents was estimated to cost A$4.2 million over 30 years and gain 24 HALYs over the lifetime of an average neighbourhood adult resident population. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was A$176 000/HALY. However, sensitivity results indicated that increasing population densities improves cost-effectiveness. In low-density cities such as in Australia, installing sidewalks in established neighbourhoods as a single intervention is unlikely to cost-effectively improve health. Sidewalks must be considered alongside other complementary elements of walkability, such as density, land use mix and street connectivity. Population density is particularly important because at higher densities, more residents are exposed and this improves the cost-effectiveness. Health gain is one of many benefits of enhancing neighbourhood walkability and future studies might

  4. Lifetimes of heavy flavour particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forty, R.

    1994-01-01

    The lifetimes of heavy-flavour hadrons are reviewed. After a brief discussion of the theoretical predictions, the problem of averaging lifetime measurements is discussed. The various experimental measurements are then presented and suitable averages performed. Charmed meson lifetimes are now measured to the few percent level, better that theory can predict, whilst for charmed baryons the lifetime hierarchy has been established for the first time. For beauty hadrons the lifetimes are measured at the 6-10 % level, and are in reasonable agreement with theoretical expectations. Beauty baryon studies ar just beginning. (author)

  5. Oil spill modeling input to the offshore environmental cost model (OECM) for US-BOEMRE's spill risk and costs evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, Deborah; Reich, Danielle; Rowe, Jill; Schroeder, Melanie; Graham, Eileen

    2011-01-01

    This paper simulates the consequences of oil spills using a planning model known as the Offshore Environmental Cost Model (OECM). This study aims at creating various predictive models for possible oil spill scenarios in marine waters. A crucial part of this investigation was the SIMAP model. It analyzes the distance and the direction covered by the spill under certain test conditions, generating a regression equation that simulates the impact of the spill. Tests were run in two different regions; the Mid-Atlantic region and the Chukchi Sea. Results showed that the higher wind speeds and higher water temperature of the Mid-Atlantic region had greater impact on wildlife and the water column respectively. However, short-line impact was higher in the Chukchi area due to the multi-directional wind. It was also shown that, because of their higher diffusivity in water, lighter crude oils had more impact than heavier oils. It was suggested that this model could ultimately be applied to other oil spill scenarios happening under similar conditions.

  6. Computerized operating cost model for industrial steam generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powers, T.D.

    1983-02-01

    Pending EPA regulations, establishing revised emission levels for industrial boilers are perceived to have an effect on the relative costs of steam production technologies. To aid in the comparison of competitive boiler technologies, the Steam Cost Code was developed which provides levelized steam costs reflecting the effects of a number of key steam cost parameters. The Steam Cost Code is a user interactive FORTRAN program designed to operate on a VAX computer system. The program requires the user to input a number of variables describing the design characteristics, capital costs, and operating conditions for a specific boiler system. Part of the input to the Steam Cost Code is the capital cost of the steam production system. The capital cost is obtained from a program called INDCEPT, developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory under Department of Energy, Morgantown Energy Technology Center sponsorship.

  7. On the relation between cost and service models for general inventory systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtum, van G.J.J.A.N.; Zijm, W.H.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we present a systematic overview of possible relations between cost and service models for fairly general single- and multi-stage inventory systems. In particular, we relate various types of penalty costs in pure cost models to equivalent types of service measures in service models.

  8. 78 FR 5765 - Wireline Competition Bureau Releases Connect America Phase II Cost Model Virtual Workshop...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-28

    ... virtual workshop topics related to the development and adoption of the forward-looking cost model for...://www.fcc.gov/blog/wcb-cost-model-virtual-workshop-2012 . [ssquf] People with Disabilities: Contact the.../wcb-cost-model-virtual-workshop-2012 . I. Introduction 1. On November 18, 2011, the Federal...

  9. 78 FR 48851 - Wireline Competition Bureau Announces Closing of the Bureau's Cost Model Virtual Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-12

    ... Competition Bureau Announces Closing of the Bureau's Cost Model Virtual Workshop AGENCY: Federal... Wireline Competition Bureau announces the closing of the Bureau's Connect America Cost Model (CAM) virtual...-90. The Bureau has not yet finalized and adopted a cost model, and will raise any additional...

  10. A Model of Cost Reduction and Standardization: Improved Cost Savings While Maintaining the Quality of Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Michael J; Gitelis, Matthew E; Linn, John G; Ujiki, Michael B; Waskerwitz, Matthew; Umanskiy, Konstantin; Muldoon, Joseph P

    2015-11-01

    Surgeon instrument choices are influenced by training, previous experience, and established preferences. This causes variability in the cost of common operations, such as laparoscopic appendectomy. Many surgeons are unaware of the impact that this has on healthcare spending. We sought to educate surgeons on their instrument use and develop standardized strategies for operating room cost reduction. We collected the individual surgeon instrument cost for performing a laparoscopic appendectomy. Sixteen surgeons were educated about these costs and provided with cost-effective instruments and techniques. This study was conducted in a university-affiliated hospital system. Patients included those undergoing a laparoscopic appendectomy within the hospital system. Patient demographics, operating room costs, and short-term outcomes for the fiscal year before and after the education program were then compared. During fiscal year 2013, a total of 336 laparoscopic appendectomies were performed compared with 357 in 2014. Twelve surgeons had a ≥5% reduction in average cost per case. Overall, the average cost per case was reduced by 17% (p day readmissions, postoperative infections, operating time, or reoperations. This retrospective study is subject to the accuracy of the medical chart system. In addition, specific instrument costs are based on our institution contracts and vary compared with other institutions. In this study we demonstrate that operative instrument costs for laparoscopic appendectomy can be significantly reduced by informing the surgeons of their operating room costs compared with their peers and providing a low-cost standardized instrument tray. Importantly, this can be realized without any incentive or punitive measures and does not negatively impact outcomes. Additional work is needed to expand these results to more operations, hospital systems, and training programs.

  11. Using Parametric Cost Models to Estimate Engineering and Installation Costs of Selected Electronic Communications Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    NC: SAS Institute Inc., 1991. 2. Horngren , Charles T. And George Foster. Cost Accounting : A Managerial Emphasis. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey...34 Office of the DoD Comptroller, Washington DC. 20. Horngren , Charles T. And George Foster. Cost Accounting : A Managerial Emphasis. Englewood Cliffs NJ...establish revolving funds as a means to more effectively control the cost of work performed by DoD support activities. In the 1950’ s and 1960’ s

  12. Capital cost models for geothermal power plants and fluid transmission systems. [GEOCOST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, S.C.

    1977-09-01

    The GEOCOST computer program is a simulation model for evaluating the economics of developing geothermal resources. The model was found to be both an accurate predictor of geothermal power production facility costs and a valid designer of such facilities. GEOCOST first designs a facility using thermodynamic optimization routines and then estimates costs for the selected design using cost models. Costs generated in this manner appear to correspond closely with detailed cost estimates made by industry planning groups. Through the use of this model, geothermal power production costs can be rapidly and accurately estimated for many alternative sites making the evaluation process much simpler yet more meaningful.

  13. LHCb: Measurement of $b$-hadron lifetimes at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Amhis, Y

    2014-01-01

    Lifetimes are among the most fundamental properties of elementary particles. Precision Measurements of $b$-hadron lifetimes are an important tool to test theoretical models such as HQET. These models allow to predict various observables related to B-mixing. Using data collected during Run 1 at the LHC, LHCb measured the lifetime of B-decays including a $J/\\psi$ in the final state.

  14. The Impact of Uncertainties in African Biomass Burning Emission Estimates on Modeling Global Air Quality, Long Range Transport and Tropospheric Chemical Lifetimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido R. van der Werf

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The chemical composition of the troposphere in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH is significantly influenced by gaseous emissions released from African biomass burning (BB. Here we investigate how various emission estimates given in bottom-up BB inventories (GFEDv2, GFEDv3, AMMABB affect simulations of global tropospheric composition using the TM4 chemistry transport model. The application of various model parameterizations for introducing such emissions is also investigated. There are perturbations in near-surface ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO of ~60–90% in the tropics and ~5–10% in the SH between different inventories. Increasing the update frequency of the temporal distribution to eight days generally results in decreases of between ~5 and 10% in near-surface mixing ratios throughout the tropics, which is larger than the influence of increasing the injection heights at which BB emissions are introduced. There are also associated differences in the long range transport of pollutants throughout the SH, where the composition of the free troposphere in the SH is sensitive to the chosen BB inventory. Analysis of the chemical budget terms reveals that the influence of increasing the tropospheric CO burden due to BB on oxidative capacity of the troposphere is mitigated by the associated increase in NOx emissions (and thus O3 with the variations in the CO/N ratio between inventories being low. For all inventories there is a decrease in the tropospheric chemical lifetime of methane of between 0.4 and 0.8% regardless of the CO emitted from African BB. This has implications for assessing the effect of inter-annual variability in BB on the annual growth rate of methane.

  15. Capital adjustment cost and bias in income based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

    OpenAIRE

    Yoseph Yilma Getachew; Keshab Bhattarai; Parantap Basu

    2012-01-01

    The fixed effects (FE) estimator of "conditional convergence" in income based dynamic panel models could be biased downward when capital adjustment cost is present. Such a capital adjustment cost means a rising marginal cost of investment which could slow down the convergence. The standard FE regression fails to take into account of this capital adjustment cost and thus it could overestimate the rate of convergence. Using a Ramsey model with long-run adjustment cost of capital, we characteriz...

  16. Fluorescence lifetime based bioassays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Almes, Franz-Josef

    2017-12-01

    Fluorescence lifetime (FLT) is a robust intrinsic property and material constant of fluorescent matter. Measuring this important physical indicator has evolved from a laboratory curiosity to a powerful and established technique for a variety of applications in drug discovery, medical diagnostics and basic biological research. This distinct trend was mainly driven by improved and meanwhile affordable laser and detection instrumentation on the one hand, and the development of suitable FLT probes and biological assays on the other. In this process two essential working approaches emerged. The first one is primarily focused on high throughput applications employing biochemical in vitro assays with no requirement for high spatial resolution. The second even more dynamic trend is the significant expansion of assay methods combining highly time and spatially resolved fluorescence data by fluorescence lifetime imaging. The latter approach is currently pursued to enable not only the investigation of immortal tumor cell lines, but also specific tissues or even organs in living animals. This review tries to give an actual overview about the current status of FLT based bioassays and the wide range of application opportunities in biomedical and life science areas. In addition, future trends of FLT technologies will be discussed.

  17. Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in Malawi: Mathematical modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweya, Hannock; Keiser, Olivia; Haas, Andreas D.; Tenthani, Lyson; Phiri, Sam; Egger, Matthias; Estill, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women (‘Option B+’) compared to ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated (‘Option B’). Design Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. Methods Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10,000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterised the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of ante-natal and post-natal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. Results During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared to 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. Conclusion Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account. PMID:26691682

  18. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  19. Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchi, C. S.; Heath, G. A.

    2013-02-01

    This report describes a component-based cost model developed for molten-salt power tower solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), using data from several prior studies, including a contracted analysis from WorleyParsons Group, which is included herein as an Appendix. The WorleyParsons' analysis also estimated material composition and mass for the plant to facilitate a life cycle analysis of the molten salt power tower technology. Details of the life cycle assessment have been published elsewhere. The cost model provides a reference plant that interfaces with NREL's System Advisor Model or SAM. The reference plant assumes a nominal 100-MWe (net) power tower running with a nitrate salt heat transfer fluid (HTF). Thermal energy storage is provided by direct storage of the HTF in a two-tank system. The design assumes dry-cooling. The model includes a spreadsheet that interfaces with SAM via the Excel Exchange option in SAM. The spreadsheet allows users to estimate the costs of different-size plants and to take into account changes in commodity prices. This report and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded at https://sam.nrel.gov/cost.

  20. Cervical cancer treatment costs and cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in Vietnam: a PRIME modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Minh, Hoang; My, Nguyen Thi Tuyet; Jit, Mark

    2017-05-15

    Cervical cancer is currently the leading cause of cancer mortality among women in South Vietnam and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in North Vietnam. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has the potential to substantially decrease this burden. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that a cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination is conducted before nationwide introduction. The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modeling and Economics (PRIME) model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine introduction. A costing study based on expert panel discussions, interviews and hospital case note reviews was conducted to explore the cost of cervical cancer care. The cost of cervical cancer treatment ranged from US$368 - 11400 depending on the type of hospital and treatment involved. Under Gavi-negotiated prices of US$4.55, HPV vaccination is likely to be very cost-effective with an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the range US$780 - 1120. However, under list prices for Cervarix and Gardasil in Vietnam, the incremental cost per DALY averted for HPV vaccination can exceed US$8000. HPV vaccine introduction appears to be economically attractive only if Vietnam is able to procure the vaccine at Gavi prices. This highlights the importance of initiating a nationwide vaccination programme while such prices are still available.

  1. Uncertainties in the proton lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Rudaz, S.; Gaillard, M.K.

    1980-04-01

    We discuss the masses of the leptoquark bosons m(x) and the proton lifetime in Grand Unified Theories based principally on SU(5). It is emphasized that estimates of m(x) based on the QCD coupling and the fine structure constant are probably more reliable than those using the experimental value of sin 2 theta(w). Uncertainties in the QCD Λ parameter and the correct value of α are discussed. We estimate higher order effects on the evolution of coupling constants in a momentum space renormalization scheme. It is shown that increasing the number of generations of fermions beyond the minimal three increases m(X) by almost a factor of 2 per generation. Additional uncertainties exist for each generation of technifermions that may exist. We discuss and discount the possibility that proton decay could be 'Cabibbo-rotated' away, and a speculation that Lorentz invariance may be violated in proton decay at a detectable level. We estimate that in the absence of any substantial new physics beyond that in the minimal SU(5) model the proton lifetimes is 8 x 10 30+-2 years

  2. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  3. Challenges and solutions for applying the travel cost demand model to geographically remote visitor destinations: A case study of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Christopher; Loomis, John

    2017-01-01

    Remote and unique destinations present difficulties when attempting to construct traditional travel cost models to value recreation demand. The biggest limitation comes from the lack of variation in the dependent variable, defined as the number of trips taken over a set time frame. There are various approaches that can be used for overcoming limitations of the traditional travel cost model in the context of remote destinations. This study applies an adaptation of the standard model to estimate recreation benefits of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska, which represents a once-in-a-lifetime experience for many visitors. Results demonstrate that visitors to this park’s Brooks Camp area are willing to pay an average of US$287 per day of bear viewing. Implications of these findings for valuing recreation at other remote destinations are discussed.

  4. Maintenance and operations cost model for DSN subsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, R. W.; Lesh, J. R.

    1977-01-01

    A procedure is described which partitions the recurring costs of the Deep Space Network (DSN) over the individual DSN subsystems. The procedure results in a table showing the maintenance, operations, sustaining engineering and supportive costs for each subsystems.

  5. A cost-effectiveness model of smoking cessation based on a randomised controlled trial of varenicline versus placebo in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Kevin; Wilson, Koo; Murphy, Daniel; Riesco, Juan Antonio

    2011-12-01

    Smoking is an important risk factor in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A recent clinical trial demonstrated the efficacy of varenicline versus placebo as an aid to smoking cessation in patients with COPD. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of varenicline from the perspective of the healthcare systems of Spain (base case), the UK, France, Germany, Greece and Italy. A Markov model was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of varenicline as an aid to smoking cessation, compared to a placebo, in a COPD population. Cost-effectiveness was determined by the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. In the Spanish base case varenicline had an incremental cost of €1021/person for an average of 0.24 life years (0.17 QALYs), gained over the lifetime of a cohort of COPD patients, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €5,566. In the other European countries, the ICER varied between €4,519 (UK) and €10,167 (Italy). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested varenicline had a high probability (>95%) of being cost-effective at a threshold of €30,000/QALY. Varenicline is expected to be a cost-effective aid to smoking cessation in COPD patients in all of the countries studied.

  6. Gated Detection Measurements of Phosphorescence Lifetimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yordan Kostov

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available A low-cost, gated system for measurements of phosphorescence lifetimes is presented. An extensive description of the system operating principles and metrological characteristics is given. Remarkably, the system operates without optical filtering of the LED excitation source. A description of a practical system is also given and its performance is discussed. Because the device effectively suppresses high-level background fluorescence and scattered light, it is expected to find wide-spread application in bioprocess, environmental and biomedical fields.

  7. The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Catherine; Doherty, John

    2006-04-01

    Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The "cost of uniqueness" is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, in turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly "well calibrated". Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post

  8. On Modeling and Analyzing Cost Factors in Information Systems Engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutschler, B.B.; Reichert, M.U.

    Introducing enterprise information systems (EIS) is usually associated with high costs. It is therefore crucial to understand those factors that determine or influence these costs. Though software cost estimation has received considerable attention during the last decades, it is difficult to apply

  9. Comparison of two dose and three dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules: cost effectiveness analysis based on transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc; Laprise, Jean-François; Choi, Yoon Hong

    2015-01-06

    To investigate the incremental cost effectiveness of two dose human papillomavirus vaccination and of additionally giving a third dose. Cost effectiveness study based on a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus vaccination. Two dose schedules for bivalent or quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines were assumed to provide 10, 20, or 30 years' vaccine type protection and cross protection or lifelong vaccine type protection without cross protection. Three dose schedules were assumed to give lifelong vaccine type and cross protection. United Kingdom. Males and females aged 12-74 years. No, two, or three doses of human papillomavirus vaccine given routinely to 12 year old girls, with an initial catch-up campaign to 18 years. Costs (from the healthcare provider's perspective), health related utilities, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. Giving at least two doses of vaccine seems to be highly cost effective across the entire range of scenarios considered at the quadrivalent vaccine list price of £86.50 (€109.23; $136.00) per dose. If two doses give only 10 years' protection but adding a third dose extends this to lifetime protection, then the third dose also seems to be cost effective at £86.50 per dose (median incremental cost effectiveness ratio £17,000, interquartile range £11,700-£25,800). If two doses protect for more than 20 years, then the third dose will have to be priced substantially lower (median threshold price £31, interquartile range £28-£35) to be cost effective. Results are similar for a bivalent vaccine priced at £80.50 per dose and when the same scenarios are explored by parameterising a Canadian model (HPV-ADVISE) with economic data from the United Kingdom. Two dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules are likely to be the most cost effective option provided protection lasts for at least 20 years. As the precise duration of two dose schedules may not be known for decades, cohorts given two doses should be closely

  10. Optimal Vehicle Design Using the Integrated System and Cost Modeling Tool Suite

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    Space Vehicle Costing ( ACEIT ) • New Small Sat Model Development & Production Cost O&M Cost Module  Radiation Exposure  Radiation Detector Response...Reliability OML Availability Risk l l Tools CEA, SRM Model, POST, ACEIT , Inflation Model, Rotor Blade Des, Microsoft Project, ATSV, S/1-iABP...space STK, SOAP – Specific mission • Space Vehicle Design (SMAD) • Space Vehicle Propulsion • Orbit Propagation • Space Vehicle Costing ( ACEIT ) • New

  11. Modelling the costs of natural hazards in games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, M.

    2012-04-01

    We will present the application of (socio-)economic models coming from games theory to urban planning and to large scale architectural tasks, the most frequent one presented being that of the church. The importance of games will be seen as a continuation of the role played by toys for the development of skills of the architects. While toys dealt with the development of 3D viewing and more realistic "building" focusing, for example, on details, games use stylized construction management models with "symbols" for resources, being it in a board game or in a computer supported social environment. 22 October 1997 to 31 May 1998 the Canadian Centre of Architecture hosted the exhibition "Toy Town". Apart of architecture toys, a field where principles of city building apply are architecture games. City building games are a subgenre of construction and management games, the best know of each is SimCity. In its initial version of 1989 SimCity included disaster scenarios including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but also flooding, fire etc. During the further development only the fire remained as well implemented as the initial scenarios. It was a way to look at the role of disasters in urban planning, not only as way for a new begin, but also as mitigation and earthquake management. It is to be noted that disasters represented in SimCity 2000 are converted to such which develop in surface, such as fire and flood. Earthquake damage which occures at random buildings is not modelled. Also, the fight against the consequences of the disaster, fire and flood are done in a realtime first hand action game, not as construction management game. However, there are costs associated to mitigating the disaster, such as the costs for fire fighters. Today such city building games evolved to 3D applications, the semantic enrichment of which involves the economic model. The digital 3D model will be compared with the "hard copy" 3D model which architecture toys represent. Models for Sim

  12. Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Diet and Population Health in Australia: A Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobiac, Linda J; Tam, King; Veerman, Lennert; Blakely, Tony

    2017-02-01

    An increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood. Using a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food (beverage tax (12,000 [95% UI: 2,100 to 21,000] DALYs). The fruit and vegetable subsidy (-13,000 [95% UI: -44,000 to 18,000] DALYs) was a cost-effective addition to the package of taxes. However, it did not necessarily lead to a net health benefit for the population when modelled as an intervention on its own, because of the possible adverse cross-price elasticity effects on consumption of other foods (e.g., foods high in saturated fat and salt). The study suggests that taxes and subsidies on foods and beverages can potentially be combined to achieve substantial improvements in population health and cost-savings to the health sector. However, the magnitude of health benefits is sensitive to measures of price elasticity, and further work is needed to incorporate potential benefits or harms associated with changes in other foods and nutrients that are not currently modelled, such as red and processed meats and fibre. With potentially large health benefits for the Australian population and large benefits in reducing health sector spending on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, the formulation of a tax and subsidy package should be given a more prominent role in Australia's public health nutrition strategy.

  13. Modeling the time and cost to drill an offshore well

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.

    2009-01-01

    The objective in drilling a hydrocarbon well is to make hole as quickly as possible subject to the technological, operational, quality, and safety constraints associated with the process. These objectives are frequently conflicting and depend on factors that are subject to significant private and market uncertainty. There is no way to identify all of the relevant characteristics of drilling operations, but through use of statistical analysis and empirical modeling, it is possible to develop relations that characterize and benchmark drilling performance under a suitable set of assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to develop the conceptual framework to model the time and cost to drill an offshore well and to illustrate the methodology on a test set of wells in the Gulf of Mexico. The physical characteristics of the wellbore and operational aspects of drilling, including variables such as the drilled interval, horizontal displacement, aspect ratio, number of casing strings, and mud weight, serve as the primary descriptive factors in the functional relations constructed.

  14. The Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Cost Essential Antihypertensive Medicines for Hypertension Control in China: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongfeng Gu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is China's leading cardiovascular disease risk factor. Improved hypertension control in China would result in result in enormous health gains in the world's largest population. A computer simulation model projected the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in Chinese adults, assuming a range of essential medicines list drug costs.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China, a Markov-style computer simulation model, simulated hypertension screening, essential medicines program implementation, hypertension control program administration, drug treatment and monitoring costs, disease-related costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs gained by preventing cardiovascular disease or lost because of drug side effects in untreated hypertensive adults aged 35-84 y over 2015-2025. Cost-effectiveness was assessed in cardiovascular disease patients (secondary prevention and for two blood pressure ranges in primary prevention (stage one, 140-159/90-99 mm Hg; stage two, ≥160/≥100 mm Hg. Treatment of isolated systolic hypertension and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension were modeled as a reduction in systolic blood pressure; treatment of isolated diastolic hypertension was modeled as a reduction in diastolic blood pressure. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored ranges of antihypertensive drug effectiveness and costs, monitoring frequency, medication adherence, side effect severity, background hypertension prevalence, antihypertensive medication treatment, case fatality, incidence and prevalence, and cardiovascular disease treatment costs. Median antihypertensive costs from Shanghai and Yunnan province were entered into the model in order to estimate the effects of very low and high drug prices. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than the per capita gross domestic product of China (11,900 international dollars [Int$] in 2015 were considered cost-effective. Treating hypertensive adults with prior

  15. Updating Linear Schedules with Lowest Cost: a Linear Programming Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biruk, Sławomir; Jaśkowski, Piotr; Czarnigowska, Agata

    2017-10-01

    Many civil engineering projects involve sets of tasks repeated in a predefined sequence in a number of work areas along a particular route. A useful graphical representation of schedules of such projects is time-distance diagrams that clearly show what process is conducted at a particular point of time and in particular location. With repetitive tasks, the quality of project performance is conditioned by the ability of the planner to optimize workflow by synchronizing the works and resources, which usually means that resources are planned to be continuously utilized. However, construction processes are prone to risks, and a fully synchronized schedule may expire if a disturbance (bad weather, machine failure etc.) affects even one task. In such cases, works need to be rescheduled, and another optimal schedule should be built for the changed circumstances. This typically means that, to meet the fixed completion date, durations of operations have to be reduced. A number of measures are possible to achieve such reduction: working overtime, employing more resources or relocating resources from less to more critical tasks, but they all come at a considerable cost and affect the whole project. The paper investigates the problem of selecting the measures that reduce durations of tasks of a linear project so that the cost of these measures is kept to the minimum and proposes an algorithm that could be applied to find optimal solutions as the need to reschedule arises. Considering that civil engineering projects, such as road building, usually involve less process types than construction projects, the complexity of scheduling problems is lower, and precise optimization algorithms can be applied. Therefore, the authors put forward a linear programming model of the problem and illustrate its principle of operation with an example.

  16. Solar PV Manufacturing Cost Model Group: Installed Solar PV System Prices (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodrich, A. C.; Woodhouse, M.; James, T.

    2011-02-01

    EERE's Solar Energy Technologies Program is charged with leading the Secretary's SunShot Initiative to reduce the cost of electricity from solar by 75% to be cost competitive with conventional energy sources without subsidy by the end of the decade. As part of this Initiative, the program has funded the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop module manufacturing and solar PV system installation cost models to ensure that the program's cost reduction targets are carefully aligned with current and near term industry costs. The NREL cost analysis team has leveraged the laboratories' extensive experience in the areas of project finance and deployment, as well as industry partnerships, to develop cost models that mirror the project cost analysis tools used by project managers at leading U.S. installers. The cost models are constructed through a "bottoms-up" assessment of each major cost element, beginning with the system's bill of materials, labor requirements (type and hours) by component, site-specific charges, and soft costs. In addition to the relevant engineering, procurement, and construction costs, the models also consider all relevant costs to an installer, including labor burdens and overhead rates, supply chain costs, and overhead and materials inventory costs, and assume market-specific profits.

  17. A cost-performance model for ground-based optical communications receiving telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesh, J. R.; Robinson, D. L.

    1986-01-01

    An analytical cost-performance model for a ground-based optical communications receiving telescope is presented. The model considers costs of existing telescopes as a function of diameter and field of view. This, coupled with communication performance as a function of receiver diameter and field of view, yields the appropriate telescope cost versus communication performance curve.

  18. [Threshold value for reimbursement of costs of new drugs: cost-effectiveness research and modelling are essential links].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederix, Geert W J; Hövels, Anke M; Severens, Johan L; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; Schellens, Jan H M

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing discussion in the Netherlands about the introduction of a threshold value for the costs per extra year of life when reimbursing costs of new drugs. The Medicines Committee ('Commissie Geneesmiddelen'), a division of the Netherlands National Healthcare Institute ('Zorginstituut Nederland'), advises on reimbursement of costs of new drugs. This advice is based upon the determination of therapeutic value of the drug and the results of economic evaluations. Mathematical models that predict future costs and effectiveness are often used in economic evaluations; these models can vary greatly in transparency and quality due to author assumptions. Standardisation of cost-effectiveness models is one solution to overcome the unwanted variation in quality. Discussions about the introduction of a threshold value can only be meaningful if all involved are adequately informed, and by high quality in cost-effectiveness research and, particularly, economic evaluations. Collaboration and discussion between medical specialists, patients or patient organisations, health economists and policy makers, both in development of methods and in standardisation, are essential to improve the quality of decision making.

  19. Personality, IQ, and Lifetime Earnings