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Sample records for modelling bse trend

  1. Monitoring and analysis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) testing in Denmark using statistical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry

    2002-01-01

    The evolution of monitoring and surveillance for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the phase of passive surveillance that began in the United Kingdom in 1988 until the present is described. Currently, surveillance for BSE in Europe consists of mass testing of cattle slaughtered for human...... consumption and cattle from certain groups considered to be at higher risk of having clinical or detectable BSE. The results of the ongoing BSE testing in Denmark have been analyzed using two statistical approaches: the "classical" fequuentist and the Bayesian that is widely used in quantitative risk analysis...

  2. BSE in the UK

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2004-01-01

    . There seemed to be little faith in the public's ability to reach a balanced judgment regarding the uncertainties. In the concluding section of the paper, this analysis is compared with the food standards agency's (FSA's) approach to BSE. The intervention of this agency was seen as one of the more important...

  3. Electricity market modeling trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ventosa, Mariano; Baillo, Alvaro; Ramos, Andres; Rivier, Michel

    2005-01-01

    The trend towards competition in the electricity sector has led to efforts by the research community to develop decision and analysis support models adapted to the new market context. This paper focuses on electricity generation market modeling. Its aim is to help to identify, classify and characterize the somewhat confusing diversity of approaches that can be found in the technical literature on the subject. The paper presents a survey of the most relevant publications regarding electricity market modeling, identifying three major trends: optimization models, equilibrium models and simulation models. It introduces a classification according to their most relevant attributes. Finally, it identifies the most suitable approaches for conducting various types of planning studies or market analysis in this new context

  4. [Basic research on BSE transmission to people].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodemer, W; Kaup, F J

    2002-08-01

    Prion diseases of animal and man belong to neurological diseases with amyloidal deposition of the respective proteins. As to prion disease, the cellular prionprotein is in its abnormal isoform(s) an essential component of prionprotein aggregates found in affected tissue. In contrast to all neurodegenerative diseases like Morbus Alzheimer or Huntington's disease, prion diseases are transmissible. Therefore, prion diseases were designated Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSE). The diseases are well known since decades. Scrapie was first described around 1750, a BSE case was reported in the 1850, most likely a misdiagnosis, and in 1920/1930 the human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) had been described. Transmission of CJD i.e. Kuru had been suspected in the early 1950s and erronously classified as slow virus disease. The CJD transmission posed a problem to humans when transplants from CJD cases were used for treatment. Fortunately, these iatrogenic transmissions remained limited. But with the advent of BSE and appearance of variant CJD cases in the UK and some places in Europe scientists suspected that transmission from cattle to man could have happened. From animal models we know of successful transmission via several routes. Species barriers do not completely prevent transmission. Rather transmission barriers might exist controlling individual susceptibility against prions. Modes of transmission, susceptibility for transmission, identification of receptor molecules as well as molecular mechanisms of the transmission process are intensely investigated. Current knowledge let us to assume that inapparent stages of prion infection pretend a (not existing) species barrier. This inapparent infection preceeds overt disease and, thus, most re-search focuses on the development of highly sensitive assay systems for detection of minute amounts of pathological prionprotein in suspected cases. Inapparence also should warn us to underestimate BSE or human vCJD cases; at

  5. BSE Rap: intergenerational ties to save lives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehmann, J L

    1993-09-01

    This article presents an innovative public-education strategy that was created to promote breast health awareness and early breast cancer detection among minority and low-income adolescent females. Given the importance of teaching breast self-examination (BSE), program development focused on creation of the BSE Rap, a lively music-video presentation. Increasing adolescents' knowledge and awareness of BSE is viewed as a springboard for disseminating information to their mothers and grandmothers. Funding was obtained for production of a video and a breast health diary, which are the program's key components. Marketing strategies included contacts with community organizations and healthcare professionals. Program evaluations reveal that the BSE Rap serves as a positive motivator for participants to discuss BSE and mammography with their mothers and grandmothers. The BSE Rap offers oncology nurses the opportunity to save lives using a unique and creative tool that focuses on intergenerational ties.

  6. Stochastic and deterministic trend models

    OpenAIRE

    Estela Bee Dagum; Camilo Dagum

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we provide an overview of some trend models formulated for global and local estimation. Global trend models are based on the assumption that the trend or nonstationary mean of a time series can be approximated closely by simple functions of time over the entire span of the series. The most common representation of deterministic and stochastic trend are introduced. In particular, for the former we analyze polynomial and transcendental functions, whereas for the latter we assume t...

  7. BSE Practice and BSE Self-Efficacy among Nursing Students in Aceh, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanita Juanita

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To survey the level of BSE practice among female nursing students in Aceh, and the degree of self-efficacy in those who did practice it.Method: Seventy-six nursing students from the Public Nursing College, Syiah Kuala University in Aceh who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. Stratified proportionate random sampling was used to determine the required number of first, second, and third year students. BSE self-efficacy of the students was measured by the BSE Self-Efficacy Questionnaire which was modified from an existing tool developed by Khatun (2010. In addition, the students’ doing BSE or not was measured by BSE Practice Questionnaire which was developed by the researcher. The data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics.Result: Only 39.5% of the students practiced BSE with more than half of the students saying they did not practice BSE (60.5%. The main factors that influenced the students’ performing BSE were not having a family history of breast cancer, single, and no history of breast illness. Among the thirty students who practiced BSE, most of them did not practice it routinely (70%, nor at the correct time (86.7%, and their confidence in performing BSE was at a moderate level overall, with a high level for BSE procedural efficacy and moderate level for barrier management efficacy.Conclusion: A majority of the Acehnese nursing students did not practice BSE, and those who did had only a moderate level of BSE self-efficacy. Therefore, the results of this study suggest emphasizing the need to teach nursing students about BSE in their undergraduate courses, with future follow-up research regarding the success of the educational program.Keywords: practice, self-efficacy, breast self-examination (BSE, nursing students

  8. EFSA BIOHAZ Panel (EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards), 2014. Scientific Opinion on BSE risk in bovine intestines and mesentery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Baggesen, Dorte Lau

    and mesentery from animals born and raised in the EU would be re-allowed for consumption. Data on the evolution of the BSE infectious titre; and of the weight of histological structures accumulating BSE infectivity, were collected. The Cattle TSE Monitoring Model (C-TSEMM) was used to estimate the number of BSE...... infected cattle entering undetected in the food and feed chain yearly. A model named TSEi was developed to estimates the BSE infectious load in tissues from infected animals at different ages and the total yearly infectious load that could enter the food and feed chain in the EU27. In BSE infected cattle...... associated with intestine and mesentery (sent to destruction) from animals entering the food and feed chain was reduced by a factor of 10. However, over this period, the maximum level of exposure to the BSE agent for individuals that would have consumed these tissues remained stable. Finally, the TSEi model...

  9. Modelling the trend of bovine spongiform encephalopathy prevalence in France: Use of restricted cubic spline regression in age-period-cohort models to estimate the efficiency of control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Morignat, Eric; Ducrot, Christian; Calavas, Didier

    2009-07-01

    An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to assess the trend in prevalence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France over time in relation to the control measures adopted since onset of the epidemic. Restricted cubic regression splines were used to model the functional forms of the non-linear effects of age at screening, birth cohort and date of diagnosis of the tested animals. The data of the 2001-2007 period of surveillance was analysed using 1-year categorisation. A categorical analysis was performed as control to check the accuracy of the sets of knots in the spline models, which were selected according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Knot selection was based on a priori knowledge of the disease and the dates of implementation of the five main BSE control measures. It was assumed that disease prevalence was a function of exposure to BSE and that changes in the exposure of cattle to BSE were mainly due to the control measures. The effects of the five main control measures were discussed in relation to the trend in BSE risk for the successive birth cohorts. The six selected models confirmed that all measures participated in disease control. However, characterization of the respective effect of individual measures was not straightforward due to the very low disease prevalence, incompletely tested cohorts and probably cumulative and overlapping effects of successive measures. The ban of importation of meat and bone meal (MBM) from the UK and the ban of use of MBM in bovines were insufficient to control the epidemic. The decline in the BSE epidemic more likely originated from implementation of the ban of MBM use in all ruminants in 1994, whose effect was probably reinforced by the evolution in perception of the BSE risk following evidence of BSE transmission to humans. Finally, the respective effects of the last two measures (prohibition of the use of specific risk material in 1996 and total MBM ban in 2000) could not be characterized as

  10. A major genetic component of BSE susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juling, Katrin; Schwarzenbacher, Hermann; Williams, John L; Fries, Ruedi

    2006-01-01

    Background Coding variants of the prion protein gene (PRNP) have been shown to be major determinants for the susceptibility to transmitted prion diseases in humans, mice and sheep. However, to date, the effects of polymorphisms in the coding and regulatory regions of bovine PRNP on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) susceptibility have been considered marginal or non-existent. Here we analysed two insertion/deletion (indel) polymorphisms in the regulatory region of bovine PRNP in BSE affected animals and controls of four independent cattle populations from UK and Germany. Results In the present report, we show that two previously reported 23- and 12-bp insertion/deletion (indel) polymorphisms in the regulatory region of bovine PRNP are strongly associated with BSE incidence in cattle. Genotyping of BSE-affected and control animals of UK Holstein, German Holstein, German Brown and German Fleckvieh breeds revealed a significant overrepresentation of the deletion alleles at both polymorphic sites in diseased animals (P = 2.01 × 10-3 and P = 8.66 × 10-5, respectively). The main effect on susceptibility is associated with the 12-bp indel polymorphism. Compared with non-carriers, heterozygous and homozygous carriers of the 12-bp deletion allele possess relatively higher risks of having BSE, ranging from 1.32 to 4.01 and 1.74 to 3.65 in the different breeds. These values correspond to population attributable risks ranging from 35% to 53%. Conclusion Our results demonstrate a substantial genetic PRNP associated component for BSE susceptibility in cattle. Although the BSE risk conferred by the deletion allele of the 12-bp indel in the regulatory region of PRNP is substantial, the main risk factor for BSE in cattle is environmental, i.e. exposure to feedstuffs contaminated with the infectious agent. PMID:17014722

  11. A major genetic component of BSE susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams John L

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Coding variants of the prion protein gene (PRNP have been shown to be major determinants for the susceptibility to transmitted prion diseases in humans, mice and sheep. However, to date, the effects of polymorphisms in the coding and regulatory regions of bovine PRNP on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE susceptibility have been considered marginal or non-existent. Here we analysed two insertion/deletion (indel polymorphisms in the regulatory region of bovine PRNP in BSE affected animals and controls of four independent cattle populations from UK and Germany. Results In the present report, we show that two previously reported 23- and 12-bp insertion/deletion (indel polymorphisms in the regulatory region of bovine PRNP are strongly associated with BSE incidence in cattle. Genotyping of BSE-affected and control animals of UK Holstein, German Holstein, German Brown and German Fleckvieh breeds revealed a significant overrepresentation of the deletion alleles at both polymorphic sites in diseased animals (P = 2.01 × 10-3 and P = 8.66 × 10-5, respectively. The main effect on susceptibility is associated with the 12-bp indel polymorphism. Compared with non-carriers, heterozygous and homozygous carriers of the 12-bp deletion allele possess relatively higher risks of having BSE, ranging from 1.32 to 4.01 and 1.74 to 3.65 in the different breeds. These values correspond to population attributable risks ranging from 35% to 53%. Conclusion Our results demonstrate a substantial genetic PRNP associated component for BSE susceptibility in cattle. Although the BSE risk conferred by the deletion allele of the 12-bp indel in the regulatory region of PRNP is substantial, the main risk factor for BSE in cattle is environmental, i.e. exposure to feedstuffs contaminated with the infectious agent.

  12. Evacuation modeling trends

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

  13. Generation of a persistently infected MDBK cell line with natural bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongseob Tark

    Full Text Available Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE is a zoonotic transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE thought to be caused by the same prion strain as variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD. Unlike scrapie and chronic wasting disease there is no cell culture model allowing the replication of proteinase K resistant BSE (PrPBSE and the further in vitro study of this disease. We have generated a cell line based on the Madin-Darby Bovine Kidney (MDBK cell line over-expressing the bovine prion protein. After exposure to naturally BSE-infected bovine brain homogenate this cell line has shown to replicate and accumulate PrPBSE and maintain infection up to passage 83 after initial challenge. Collectively, we demonstrate, for the first time, that the BSE agent can infect cell lines over-expressing the bovine prion protein similar to other prion diseases. These BSE infected cells will provide a useful tool to facilitate the study of potential therapeutic agents and the diagnosis of BSE.

  14. Relationship with BSE (Mad Cow Disease)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Form Controls Cancel Submit Search the CDC Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... for Travelers Surveillance Treatment Related Links Prion Diseases Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), or Mad Cow ...

  15. Does the Amazon suffer from BSE prevention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elferink, E.V.; Nonhebel, S.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    In the last decade, large-scale production of soybeans has been a major driver of the enhanced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that these soybeans are mainly exported to the EU to substitute for the BSE related banned meat and bone meal in livestock feed. This strongly suggests a link

  16. Sheep and Goat BSE Propagate More Efficiently than Cattle BSE in Human PrP Transgenic Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa, Juan Carlos; Andreoletti, Olivier; Jaumain, Emilie; Reine, Fabienne; Herzog, Laetitia; Gutierrez-Adan, Alfonso; Pintado, Belen; Laude, Hubert; Torres, Juan Maria

    2011-01-01

    A new variant of Creutzfeldt Jacob Disease (vCJD) was identified in humans and linked to the consumption of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)-infected meat products. Recycling of ruminant tissue in meat and bone meal (MBM) has been proposed as origin of the BSE epidemic. During this epidemic, sheep and goats have been exposed to BSE-contaminated MBM. It is well known that sheep can be experimentally infected with BSE and two field BSE-like cases have been reported in goats. In this work we evaluated the human susceptibility to small ruminants-passaged BSE prions by inoculating two different transgenic mouse lines expressing the methionine (Met) allele of human PrP at codon 129 (tg650 and tg340) with several sheep and goat BSE isolates and compared their transmission characteristics with those of cattle BSE. While the molecular and neuropathological transmission features were undistinguishable and similar to those obtained after transmission of vCJD in both transgenic mouse lines, sheep and goat BSE isolates showed higher transmission efficiency on serial passaging compared to cattle BSE. We found that this higher transmission efficiency was strongly influenced by the ovine PrP sequence, rather than by other host species-specific factors. Although extrapolation of results from prion transmission studies by using transgenic mice has to be done very carefully, especially when human susceptibility to prions is analyzed, our results clearly indicate that Met129 homozygous individuals might be susceptible to a sheep or goat BSE agent at a higher degree than to cattle BSE, and that these agents might transmit with molecular and neuropathological properties indistinguishable from those of vCJD. Our results suggest that the possibility of a small ruminant BSE prion as vCJD causal agent could not be ruled out, and that the risk for humans of a potential goat and/or sheep BSE agent should not be underestimated. PMID:21445238

  17. Beoordeling van het volksgezondheidsrisico door blootstelling aan BSE-infectiviteit van het destructiebedrijf Rendac Bergum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntly P; Comer P; Geertsma RE; Schreuder BEC; Koeijer AA de; Bruggen M van; Osterhaus ADME; Poel WHM van der; MGB

    2002-01-01

    To identify and quantify the risks to the public health from the BSE infective agent arising from the activities at the Rendac Bergum rendering plant, a risk assessment study was performed. The flow of infectivity entering the rendering plant was modelled using an event tree approach. The model was

  18. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE, Mad Cow Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. K. Bruckner

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available Mad Cow Disease or BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy became a household name internationally and also in South Africa. International hysteria resulted following reports of a possible link between a disease diagnosed in cattle in Britain and a variant of the disease diagnosed in humans after the presumed ingestion or contact with meat from infected cattle. The European Union instituted a ban on the importation of beef from the United Kingdom during March 1996 that had a severe effect on the beef industry in the UK and also resulted in a world wide consumer resistance against beef consumption.

  19. Understanding the pattern of the BSE Sensex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, I.; Chatterjee, Soumya; Giri, A.; Barat, P.

    2017-09-01

    An attempt is made to understand the pattern of behaviour of the BSE Sensex by analysing the tick-by-tick Sensex data for the years 2006 to 2012 on yearly as well as cumulative basis using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its nonlinear variant Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA). The latter technique ensures that the nonlinear character of the interactions present in the system gets captured in the analysis. The analysis is carried out by constructing vector spaces of varying dimensions. The size of the data set ranges from a minimum of 360,000 for one year to a maximum of 2,520,000 for seven years. In all cases the prices appear to be highly correlated and restricted to a very low dimensional subspace of the original vector space. An external perturbation is added to the system in the form of noise. It is observed that while standard PCA is unable to distinguish the behaviour of the noise-mixed data from that of the original, KPCA clearly identifies the effect of the noise. The exercise is extended in case of daily data of other stock markets and similar results are obtained.

  20. Energy models: methods and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.

    1996-01-01

    Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning

  1. Assessment of risk to public health from exposure to BSE infectivity from the Rendac Bergum rendering plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntly P; Comer P; Geertsma RE; Schreuder BEC; Koeijer AA de; Brugen M van; Osterhaus ADME; Poel WHM van der; MGB

    2002-01-01

    To identify and quantify the risks to the public health from the BSE infective agent arising from the activities at the Rendac Bergum rendering plant, a risk assessment study was performed. The flow of infectivity entering the rendering plant was modelled using an event tree approach. The model was

  2. [Risk assessment for importing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hörnlimann, B; Guidon, D; Griot, C

    1994-07-01

    Since the occurrence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Switzerland in 1990, extensive epidemiological investigations and risk factor analyses were carried out. In this study, statistical data on meat and bone meal traded from 1985 to 1989 were analysed addressing the following questions: i) what amount of meat and bone meal was exported from Great Britain (GB) and where to and ii) what amount of meat and bone meal was imported into Switzerland and where from? The findings led to the hypothesis that imported material potentially infected with scrapie-like agents was the cause for BSE in Switzerland.

  3. New trends in species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

  4. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

    2009-09-18

    The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  5. A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slanicay Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech economy and the euro area, using Bayesian techniques. The advantage of the trend specification proposed is that the trend component and the cyclical component are modelled jointly in a single model. The proposed trend specification is flexible in the sense that smoothness of the trend can be easily modified by different calibration of some of the trend parameters. The results suggest that this method is capable of finding a very reasonable trend in the data. Moreover, comparison of forecast performance reveals that the proposed specification offers more reliable forecasts than the original variant of the model.

  6. Other aspects of BSE issues in East Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekizawa, Jun

    2013-11-01

    Scientific risk estimates of BSE can be the same internationally; however, socioeconomic backgrounds, such as food supply (e.g., beef import status) and dietary life, are different between East Asian countries (i.e., in this article, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) and Western countries, which may account for differences in risk perception of people. Since political and social backgrounds also differ among these East Asian countries, they will also influence people's attitudes toward food safety. Psychological factors such as "dread" and the "unknown" are considered to be important in risk perception, but socioeconomic, and in some cases political, situations (e.g., attitudes of politicians and political pressures in trade) may strongly influence the perception and acceptance of various risks by citizens. With regard to the BSE issues, latter aspects may contribute a lot to risk perception, but have not been examined in depth until now. Although protection of health is the key element to food safety, sometimes business factors can overwhelm safety issues in international trade. Appropriate risk governance in food safety issues, such as BSE, can be attained not only through application of outputs of scientific assessment, but also through deliberation of various aspects, that may have strong influence on people's risk perception, and improved communication among stakeholders and also among countries. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

    2012-01-01

    An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

  8. Trends in development of innovative business models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Milan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The companies doing business in global markets are now compelled to do it in conditions of permanent and turbulent changes. In order to succeed within that kind of environment in the long run, they are to innovate and to continuously strengthen their own innovative strength. Consideration of gaining its own innovative strength becomes top agenda issue of strategic companies. To that purpose, this paper presents the shortened results of a desktop theoretical research that has been undertaken to improve the innovative power of companies. The survey and subsequent analysis identified relevant innovative business models (IBM of companies, some of which briefly presented (CANVAS, SHARE, and WOIS BLUE OCEAN Strategy, which now form the current IBM trend.

  9. SOA and Web Technology for Building BSE Market Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu VINTE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Visual representation as a map of the stock market data can offer access, in a quick and rele-vant manner for human participants, to the overall state of the market at a given point in time. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of our academic research upon building the market map for Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. We will focus on the algorithm for generat-ing the market map, the system architecture, and web technology employed for capturing the required data and making the map publicly available through the portal www.bursa.ase.ro. Mathematics Subject Classification: 68M14 (Distributed Systems

  10. Bankruptcy Risk in IFRS Era. Case Study on BSE Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin BURCA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The path of international accounting convergence is, unanimously accepted by all decision makers of the international financial reporting environment, as being the best solution towards reducing differences in international accounting. The idea of core standards is embraced by our country, too, the proof being the last legislative changes in Romanian accounting framework. This study aims to highlight a small part of the economic consequences of the decision to extend the mandatory use of IFRS standards to the statutory financial statements, also. More exactly we will underline the changes registered at the level of bankruptcy risk measureson a samples of companies listed on BSE.

  11. Modeling defect trends for iterative development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, J. D.; Spanguolo, J. N.

    2003-01-01

    The Employment of Defects (EoD) approach to measuring and analyzing defects seeks to identify and capture trends and phenomena that are critical to managing software quality in the iterative software development lifecycle at JPL.

  12. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  13. CNS histopathology on bovines with clinical suspicion of BSE in Denmark 2001 to 2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tim Kåre

    During2001 to 2011 a total of 195 bovines were submitted to the instutute with clinical suspicion of having BSE. In two cases BSE was confirmed. The most common differential diagnosis was listeriosis, found in 54% of the cases. Listeriosis was characterized by multifocal, necrotizing, non-suppura...

  14. CNS histopathology on 203 bovines with clinical suspicion of BSE in Denmark 2001 to 2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tim Kåre

    2017-01-01

    During 2001 to 2016 a total of 203 bovines were submitted to the instutute with clinical suspicion of having BSE. In two cases BSE was confirmed. The most common differential diagnosis was listeriosis, found in 54% of the cases. Listeriosis was characterized by multifocal, necrotizing, non-suppur......-suppurative encephalitis confined to the brainstem region....

  15. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    on whether their parameters are fixed or evolutive. Stochastic model specification is carried out to discriminate two alternative hypotheses concerning the generation of trends: the trend-stationary hypothesis, on the one hand, for which the trend is a deterministic function of time and the short run...... dynamics are represented by a stationary autoregressive process; the difference-stationary hypothesis, on the other, according to which the trend results from the cumulation of the effects of random disturbances. We illustrate the methodology for a set of U.S. macroeconomic time series, which includes...

  16. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  17. Light tetraquarks and mesons in a DSE/BSE approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heupel, Walter

    2015-07-01

    Bound states and their properties are an inherent non-perturbative feature of QCD. Moreover, QCD is a confining theory so that instead of the elementary quarks and gluons themselves, only colourless bound states formed of these elementary particles are directly measurable. One non-perturbative framework to describe QCD are the Dyson-Schwinger equations, which interrelate all Green functions of the theory by an infinite tower of integral equations, and the corresponding Bethe-Salpeter equations that define the bound states of the theory. To reduce the infinite tower to a tractable form, the equations have to be truncated. In this thesis the so-called rainbow ladder' truncation was used that reduces the quark-gluon vertex to the bare vertex and replaces the gluon by an effective modeled one so that the only Green function that has to be solved, is the quark propagator. This truncation preserves the important axial Ward-Takahashi-identity and the Gell-Mann-Oakes-Renner relation. For the effective gluon the Maris-Tandy interaction was used, modeled to reproduce the pion mass and decay constant. Starting from this well-established truncation, the four-body tetraquark Bethe-Salpeter equation was constructed. To solve the tetraquark Bethe-Salpeter equation, a fully covariant basis for the tetraquark amplitude is necessary. Additionally, the basis has to reflect the quantum numbers of the tetraquark and has to fulfill the Pauli principle. The construction of such a basis was performed for all parts of the amplitude: The Dirac-tensor structure, the phase space, the colour and the flavour tensor structure. Upon solving the tetraquark bound state equation, dynamical pion poles in the tetraquark amplitude phase space appeared, reflecting the actual physics that determines the tetraquark: The tetraquark is dominated by two-body correlations which manifest themselves as poles in the phase space. It is especially noteworthy that these two-body correlations in form of poles

  18. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE – Infectious, Contagious, Zoonotic or Production Disease?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doherr Marcus G

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available In 1986, a new progressive neurological condition similar to scrapie of sheep and goats was recognised in cattle in the United Kingdom (UK, and was named bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE. There is an ongoing discussion whether BSE should be classified as infectious, contagious, or zoonotic, and if it fits the definition of a production disease. The objective of this work is to briefly describe the main characteristics of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE, to review the epidemiology of BSE, and to address the question of how to classify BSE. TSEs are characterised as chronic wasting diseases with spongiform vacuolation and the accumulation of infectious prion protein (PrPSc in the central nervous system. TSE infectivity is very difficult to inactivate. Cattle BSE most likely originated from sheep scrapie, although this will remain to be an issue for debate. The disease can be transmitted from cattle to a range of species, and has resulted in smaller TSE epidemics in domestic cats, zoo cats and zoo ruminants, and in humans. Transmission in the field occurred through feed containing ruminant-derived protein, and measures to prevent the recycling of infectivity have proven effective to reduce the number of new infections. Mandatory reporting of clinical suspects combined with targeted screening of risk populations is needed to assess the BSE status of a country. Infection studies and the transmissibility to other species classify BSE as infectious and zoonotic. Absence of excretion of the agent, and therefor of horizontal transmission, categorise BSE as non-contagious. However, BSE is a multifactorial infectious disease that is dependent on management factors (mainly feeding, and therefore fits into the broader definition of production diseases.

  19. The Liquidity of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE during the Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion STANCU

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the evolution of BSE during the financial crisis in 2008. The investors’ preferences for blue chips shares remained unchanged, there were traded the same shares in almost the same volumes. The shares’ prices are highly positive correlated, the reduce liquidity of BSE determine the investors’ preferences for liquid shares. The crisis determined a decrease in the transactions volume and value and in the number of shares traded, with major impact over the shares’ prices, possible due to emotion reaction of investors. BSE is still attractive, having low prices and high future possibility of increasing.

  20. Beoordeling van het volksgezondheidsrisico door blootstelling aan BSE-infectiviteit van het destructiebedrijf Rendac Bergum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntly P; Comer P; Geertsma RE; Schreuder BEC; Koeijer AA de; Bruggen M van; Osterhaus ADME; Poel WHM van der; MGB

    2002-01-01

    Voor het vaststellen en kwantificeren van het volksgezondheidsrisico van BSE infectiviteit voortkomende uit de activiteiten van het destructiebedrijf Rendac Bergum, werd een "risk assessment" onderzoek uitgevoerd. De stroom van infectiviteit die de fabriek binnenkomt werd gemodelleerd

  1. Biomechanics trends in modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ogden, Ray

    2017-01-01

    The book presents a state-of-the-art overview of biomechanical and mechanobiological modeling and simulation of soft biological tissues. Seven well-known scientists working in that particular field discuss topics such as biomolecules, networks and cells as well as failure, multi-scale, agent-based, bio-chemo-mechanical and finite element models appropriate for computational analysis. Applications include arteries, the heart, vascular stents and valve implants as well as adipose, brain, collagenous and engineered tissues. The mechanics of the whole cell and sub-cellular components as well as the extracellular matrix structure and mechanotransduction are described. In particular, the formation and remodeling of stress fibers, cytoskeletal contractility, cell adhesion and the mechanical regulation of fibroblast migration in healing myocardial infarcts are discussed. The essential ingredients of continuum mechanics are provided. Constitutive models of fiber-reinforced materials with an emphasis on arterial walls ...

  2. Pruritus is a common feature in sheep infected with the BSE agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konold, Timm; Bone, Gemma; Vidal-Diez, Alberto; Tortosa, Raul; Davis, Andrew; Dexter, Glenda; Hill, Peter; Jeffrey, Martin; Simmons, Marion M; Chaplin, Melanie J; Bellworthy, Susan J; Berthelin-Baker, Christine

    2008-04-29

    The variability in the clinical or pathological presentation of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep, such as scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), has been attributed to prion protein genotype, strain, breed, clinical duration, dose, route and type of inoculum and the age at infection. The study aimed to describe the clinical signs in sheep infected with the BSE agent throughout its clinical course to determine whether the clinical signs were as variable as described for classical scrapie in sheep. The clinical signs were compared to BSE-negative sheep to assess if disease-specific clinical markers exist. Forty-seven (34%) of 139 sheep, which comprised 123 challenged sheep and 16 undosed controls, were positive for BSE. Affected sheep belonged to five different breeds and three different genotypes (ARQ/ARQ, VRQ/VRQ and AHQ/AHQ). None of the controls or BSE exposed sheep with ARR alleles were positive. Pruritus was present in 41 (87%) BSE positive sheep; the remaining six were judged to be pre-clinically infected. Testing of the response to scratching along the dorsum of a sheep proved to be a good indicator of clinical disease with a test sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 98% and usually coincided with weight loss. Clinical signs that were displayed significantly earlier in BSE positive cases compared to negative cases were behavioural changes, pruritic behaviour, a positive scratch test, alopecia, skin lesions, teeth grinding, tremor, ataxia, loss of weight and loss of body condition. The frequency and severity of each specific clinical sign usually increased with the progression of disease over a period of 16-20 weeks. Our results suggest that BSE in sheep presents with relatively uniform clinical signs, with pruritus of increased severity and abnormalities in behaviour or movement as the disease progressed. Based on the studied sheep, these clinical features appear to be independent of breed, affected genotype, dose, route

  3. Pruritus is a common feature in sheep infected with the BSE agent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Martin

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The variability in the clinical or pathological presentation of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs in sheep, such as scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, has been attributed to prion protein genotype, strain, breed, clinical duration, dose, route and type of inoculum and the age at infection. The study aimed to describe the clinical signs in sheep infected with the BSE agent throughout its clinical course to determine whether the clinical signs were as variable as described for classical scrapie in sheep. The clinical signs were compared to BSE-negative sheep to assess if disease-specific clinical markers exist. Results Forty-seven (34% of 139 sheep, which comprised 123 challenged sheep and 16 undosed controls, were positive for BSE. Affected sheep belonged to five different breeds and three different genotypes (ARQ/ARQ, VRQ/VRQ and AHQ/AHQ. None of the controls or BSE exposed sheep with ARR alleles were positive. Pruritus was present in 41 (87% BSE positive sheep; the remaining six were judged to be pre-clinically infected. Testing of the response to scratching along the dorsum of a sheep proved to be a good indicator of clinical disease with a test sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 98% and usually coincided with weight loss. Clinical signs that were displayed significantly earlier in BSE positive cases compared to negative cases were behavioural changes, pruritic behaviour, a positive scratch test, alopecia, skin lesions, teeth grinding, tremor, ataxia, loss of weight and loss of body condition. The frequency and severity of each specific clinical sign usually increased with the progression of disease over a period of 16–20 weeks. Conclusion Our results suggest that BSE in sheep presents with relatively uniform clinical signs, with pruritus of increased severity and abnormalities in behaviour or movement as the disease progressed. Based on the studied sheep, these clinical features appear to

  4. New Trends, News Values, and New Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Mary Anne

    1996-01-01

    Explores implications of the prediction that in the next millennium the public will experience a scarcity of knowledge and a surplus of information. Reviews research suggesting that journalists focus on these news values: emphasizing how/why, devaluing immediacy, specializing/analyzing, representing a constituency. Examines two new models of…

  5. Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek, Anders; Kongsted, H.C.; Jørgensen, H.C.

    1999-01-01

    A vector autoregressive model for I(2) processes which allows for trend-stationary components and restricts the deterministic part of the process to be at most linear is defined. A two-step statistical analysis of the model is derived. The joint test of I(1) and I(2) cointegrating ranks is shown ...

  6. The Development of a Cultural-Based Educational Program to Enhance Breast Self-Examination (BSE Self-Efficacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanita Juanita

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To develop the educational program which is appropriate with Islamic culture in order to enhance BSE self-efficacy of nursing students and thus promote BSE practice. Method: This study is a development research study which is consisting of three phases including: 1 reviewing several existing BSE educational programs; 2 program design based on SCT and Islamic culture; and 3 program validation by three experts. Result: Based on previous studies, the most appropriate theory to enhance self-efficacy was Social Cognitive Theory (SCT because this theory provides several strategies to increase the self-efficacy. Further, the program that used Islamic culture was more appropriate to increase BSE practice among Muslim women. As a result, the newly developed program was developed used SCT and Islamic culture. This program was comprised of four sessions including: 1 exploring Islamic mandate on prevention and individual responsibility in health promotion, and culture-related beliefs toward BSE, 2 health education by conducting lecturing session and watching a video about BSE procedures, 3 BSE training activities including BSE demonstration and return demonstration, 4 follow-up by conducting a meeting. Conclusion: The cultural-based educational program for enhancing BSE self-efficacy and promoting BSE is a program using multifaceted methods. It designed based on a review of the literature from previous studies and were supported by research findings on experimental studies in other population. Keywords: Cultural, Educational program development, Breast self-examination, Self-efficacy.

  7. Recent trends in specialty pharma business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mannching Sherry Ku

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The recent rise of specialty pharma is attributed to its flexible, versatile, and open business model while the traditional big pharma is facing a challenging time with patent cliff, generic threat, and low research and development (R&D productivity. These multinational pharmaceutical companies, facing a difficult time, have been systematically externalizing R&D and some even establish their own corporate venture capital so as to diversify with more shots on goal, with the hope of achieving a higher success rate in their compound pipeline. Biologics and clinical Phase II proof-of-concept (POC compounds are the preferred licensing and collaboration targets. Biologics enjoys a high success rate with a low generic biosimilar threat, while the need is high for clinical Phase II POC compounds, due to its high attrition/low success rate. Repurposing of big pharma leftover compounds is a popular strategy but with limitations. Most old compounds come with baggage either in lackluster clinical performance or short in patent life. Orphan drugs is another area which has gained popularity in recent years. The shorter and less costly regulatory pathway provides incentives, especially for smaller specialty pharma. However, clinical studies on orphan drugs require a large network of clinical operations in many countries in order to recruit enough patients. Big pharma is also working on orphan drugs starting with a small indication, with the hope of expanding the indication into a blockbuster status. Specialty medicine, including orphan drugs, has become the growth engine in the pharmaceutical industry worldwide. Big pharma is also keen on in-licensing technology or projects from specialty pharma to extend product life cycles, in order to protect their blockbuster drug franchises. Ample opportunities exist for smaller players, even in the emerging countries, to collaborate with multinational pharmaceutical companies provided that the technology platforms or

  8. Recent trends in specialty pharma business model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Mannching Sherry

    2015-12-01

    The recent rise of specialty pharma is attributed to its flexible, versatile, and open business model while the traditional big pharma is facing a challenging time with patent cliff, generic threat, and low research and development (R&D) productivity. These multinational pharmaceutical companies, facing a difficult time, have been systematically externalizing R&D and some even establish their own corporate venture capital so as to diversify with more shots on goal, with the hope of achieving a higher success rate in their compound pipeline. Biologics and clinical Phase II proof-of-concept (POC) compounds are the preferred licensing and collaboration targets. Biologics enjoys a high success rate with a low generic biosimilar threat, while the need is high for clinical Phase II POC compounds, due to its high attrition/low success rate. Repurposing of big pharma leftover compounds is a popular strategy but with limitations. Most old compounds come with baggage either in lackluster clinical performance or short in patent life. Orphan drugs is another area which has gained popularity in recent years. The shorter and less costly regulatory pathway provides incentives, especially for smaller specialty pharma. However, clinical studies on orphan drugs require a large network of clinical operations in many countries in order to recruit enough patients. Big pharma is also working on orphan drugs starting with a small indication, with the hope of expanding the indication into a blockbuster status. Specialty medicine, including orphan drugs, has become the growth engine in the pharmaceutical industry worldwide. Big pharma is also keen on in-licensing technology or projects from specialty pharma to extend product life cycles, in order to protect their blockbuster drug franchises. Ample opportunities exist for smaller players, even in the emerging countries, to collaborate with multinational pharmaceutical companies provided that the technology platforms or specialty medicinal

  9. A Trend Model for Alzheimer’s Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Örjan Hallberg

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden, mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease have increased since early 90’s.  In this study, we compared rates reported from 2006-2012 with projected trends determined previously and found a good fit.  The objective of this study was to investigate if increased mortality can be modeled as a single exponential function of time lived in a new environment, where the risk of dying from Alzheimer’s disease has been increased.  The results demonstrated that the exponential model can be used to predict future mortalities for different scenarios, and that it can also project age-specific trends.  We conclude that increasing mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease seem caused by an environmental change introduced since the 1990’s.  Since similar trend breaks also have been reported for different cancers, responsible authorities should seriously address this problem to pinpoint causative factors.

  10. Modelling of trends in twitter using retweet graph dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thij, M. ten; Ouboter, T.M.; Worm, D.T.H.; Litvak, N.; Berg, J.L. van den; Bhulai, S.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we model user behaviour in Twitter to capture the emergence of trending topics. For this purpose, we first extensively analyse tweet datasets of several different events. In particular, for these datasets, we construct and investigate the retweet graphs. We find that the retweet graph

  11. Rapid and discriminatory diagnosis of scrapie and BSE in retro-pharyngeal lymph nodes of sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Zijderveld Fred G

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis based on prion detection in lymph nodes of sheep and goats can improve active surveillance for scrapie and, if it were circulating, for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE. With sizes that allow repetitive testing and a location that is easily accessible at slaughter, retropharyngeal lymph nodes (RLN are considered suitable organs for testing. Western blotting (WB of brain homogenates is, in principle, a technique well suited to both detect and discriminate between scrapie and BSE. In this report, WB is developed for rapid diagnosis in RLN and to study biochemical characteristics of PrPres. Results Optimal PrPres detection in RLN by WB was achieved by proper tissue processing, antibody choice and inclusion of a step for PrPresconcentration. The analyses were performed on three different sheep sources. Firstly, in a study with preclinical scrapie cases, WB of RLN from infected sheep of VRQ/VRQ genotype – VRQ represents, respectively, polymorphic PrP amino acids 136, 154, and 171 – allowed a diagnosis 14 mo earlier compared to WB of brain stem. Secondly, samples collected from sheep with confirmed scrapie in the course of passive and active surveillance programmes in the period 2002–2003 yielded positive results depending on genotype: all sheep with genotypes ARH/VRQ, VRQ/VRQ, and ARQ/VRQ scored positive for PrPres, but ARQ/ARQ and ARR/VRQ were not all positive. Thirdly, in an experimental BSE study, detection of PrPres in all 11 ARQ/ARQ sheep, including 7 preclinical cases, was possible. In all instances, WB and IHC were almost as sensitive. Moreover, BSE infection could be discriminated from scrapie infection by faster electrophoretic migration of the PrPres bands. Using dual antibody staining with selected monoclonal antibodies like 12B2 and L42, these differences in migration could be employed for an unequivocal differentiation between BSE and scrapie. With respect to glycosylation of PrPres, BSE cases

  12. Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

    2017-09-01

    We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

  13. Minimum Effective Dose of Cattle and Sheep BSE for Oral Sheep Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gillian McGovern

    Full Text Available The minimum dose required to cause infection of Romney and Suffolk sheep of the ARQ/ARQ or ARQ/ARR prion protein gene genotypes following oral inoculation with Romney or Suffolk a sheep Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE-derived or cattle BSE-derived agent was investigated using doses ranging from 0.0005g to 5g. ARQ/ARQ sheep which were methionine (M / threonine (T heterozygous or T/T homozygous at codon 112 of the Prnp gene, dosed ARQ/ARR sheep and undosed controls did not show any evidence of infection. Within groups of susceptible sheep, the minimum effective oral dose of BSE was found to be 0.05g, with higher attack rates following inoculation with the 5g dose. Surprisingly, this study found no effect of dose on survival time suggesting a possible lack of homogeneity within the inoculum. All clinical BSE cases showed PrPd accumulation in brain; however, following cattle BSE inoculation, LRS involvement within Romney recipients was found to be significantly lower than within the Suffolk sheep inoculated group which is in agreement with previous reports.

  14. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

  15. Modeling the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine the influence of long-range pollutant transport on trends in surface level O3 distributions. The WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations were recently performed for the period spanning 1990-2010 to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. Simulated trends in ozone and precursor species concentrations across the U.S. and the northern hemisphere over the past two decades are compared with those inferred from available measurements during this period. Additionally, the decoupled direct method (DDM) in CMAQ is used to estimate the sensitivity of O3 to emissions from different source regions across the northern hemisphere. The seasonal variations in source region contributions to background O3 is then estimated from these sensitivity calculations and will be discussed. A reduced form model combining these source region sensitivities estimated from DDM with the multi-decadal simulations of O3 distributions and emissions trends, is then developed to characterize the changing contributions of different source regions to background O3 levels across North America. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas

  16. Factors affecting the accuracy of urine-based biomarkers of BSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruddat Viola

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diseases are untreatable, uniformly fatal degenerative syndromes of the central nervous system that can be transmitted both within as well as between species. The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE epidemic and the emergence of a new human variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD, have profoundly influenced beef production processes as well as blood donation and surgical procedures. Simple, robust and cost effective diagnostic screening and surveillance tools are needed for both the preclinical and clinical stages of TSE disease in order to minimize both the economic costs and zoonotic risk of BSE and to further reduce the risk of secondary vCJD. Objective Urine is well suited as the matrix for an ante-mortem test for TSE diseases because it would permit non-invasive and repeated sampling. In this study urine samples collected from BSE infected and age matched control cattle were screened for the presence of individual proteins that exhibited disease specific changes in abundance in response to BSE infection that might form the basis of such an ante-mortem test. Results Two-dimensional differential gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE was used to identify proteins exhibiting differential abundance in two sets of cattle. The known set consisted of BSE infected steers and age matched controls throughout the course of the disease. The blinded unknown set was composed of BSE infected and control samples of both genders, a wide range of ages and two different breeds. Multivariate analyses of individual protein abundance data generated classifiers comprised of the proteins best able to discriminate between the samples based on disease state, breed, age and gender. Conclusion Despite the presence of confounding factors, the disease specific changes in abundance exhibited by a panel of urine proteins permitted the creation of classifiers able to discriminate between control and infected cattle

  17. The BSE Risk of Processing Meat and Bone Meal in Nonruminant Feed: A Quantitative Assessment for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de C.J.; Heres, L.

    2009-01-01

    The total ban on use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in livestock feed has been very successful in reducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) spread, but also implies a waste of high-quality proteins resulting in economic and ecological loss. Now that the BSE epidemic is fading out, a partial

  18. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  19. 9 CFR 93.436 - Ruminants from regions of minimal risk for BSE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... importation of cervids from a region listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of this subchapter. (f) Camelids. There are no BSE-related restrictions on the importation of camelids from a region listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of this...

  20. New Trends in Model Coupling Theory, Numerics and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coquel, F.; Godlewski, E.; Herard, J. M.; Segre, J.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue comprises selected papers from the workshop New Trends in Model Coupling, Theory, Numerics and Applications (NTMC'09) which took place in Paris, September 2 - 4, 2009. The research of optimal technological solutions in a large amount of industrial systems requires to perform numerical simulations of complex phenomena which are often characterized by the coupling of models related to various space and/or time scales. Thus, the so-called multi-scale modelling has been a thriving scientific activity which connects applied mathematics and other disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology or even social sciences. To illustrate the variety of fields concerned by the natural occurrence of model coupling we may quote: meteorology where it is required to take into account several turbulence scales or the interaction between oceans and atmosphere, but also regional models in a global description, solid mechanics where a thorough understanding of complex phenomena such as propagation of cracks needs to couple various models from the atomistic level to the macroscopic level; plasma physics for fusion energy for instance where dense plasmas and collisionless plasma coexist; multiphase fluid dynamics when several types of flow corresponding to several types of models are present simultaneously in complex circuits; social behaviour analysis with interaction between individual actions and collective behaviour. (authors)

  1. Recent trends in social systems quantitative theories and quantitative models

    CERN Document Server

    Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Soitu, Daniela-Tatiana; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2017-01-01

    The papers collected in this volume focus on new perspectives on individuals, society, and science, specifically in the field of socio-economic systems. The book is the result of a scientific collaboration among experts from “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iaşi (Romania), “G. d’Annunzio” University of Chieti-Pescara (Italy), "University of Defence" of Brno (Czech Republic), and "Pablo de Olavide" University of Sevilla (Spain). The heterogeneity of the contributions presented in this volume reflects the variety and complexity of social phenomena. The book is divided in four Sections as follows. The first Section deals with recent trends in social decisions. Specifically, it aims to understand which are the driving forces of social decisions. The second Section focuses on the social and public sphere. Indeed, it is oriented on recent developments in social systems and control. Trends in quantitative theories and models are described in Section 3, where many new formal, mathematical-statistical to...

  2. Assessment of risk to public health from exposure to BSE infectivity from the Rendac Bergum rendering plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntly P; Comer P; Geertsma RE; Schreuder BEC; Koeijer AA de; Brugen M van; Osterhaus ADME; Poel WHM van der; MGB

    2002-01-01

    Voor het vaststellen en kwantificeren van het volksgezondheidsrisico van BSE infectiviteit voortkomende uit de activiteiten van het destructiebedrijf Rendac Bergum, werd een "risk assessment" onderzoek uitgevoerd. De stroom van infectiviteit die de fabriek binnenkomt werd gemodelleerd

  3. ANALISIS SOAL JENJANG KOGNITIF TAKSONOMI BLOOM REVISI PADA BUKU SEKOLAH ELEKTRONIK (BSE BIOLOGI SMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aa Juhanda

    2016-11-01

    Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemunculan soal jenjang kognitif Bloom Revisi pada Buku Sekolah Elektronik (BSE Biologi SMA. Subjek penelitian adalah 1.650 soal yang terdapat pada BSE Edisi 2009. Instrumen yang digunakan adalah lembar analisis dokumen yang di dalamnya memuat informasi seperti kode soal, soal, dan jenis tingkatan kognitif taksonomi Bloom Revisi. Analisis data dilakukan secara kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rerata persentase kemunculan cukup tinggi diperoleh pada soal yang mengembangkan keterampilan berpikir tingkat rendah (Lower-Order Thinking Skills yaitu soal C1 (mengingat sebesar 46,60% dan C2 (memahami sebesar 47,99%, meskipun untuk C3 (menerapkan persentasenya masih rendah (0,28%. Rerata persentase kemunculan soal yang mengembangkan keterampilan tingkat tinggi (Higher-Order Thinking Skills mulai dari soal C4 (menganalisis sampai dengan C6 (mencipta memiliki rerata persentase yang rendah. Oleh karena itu, kemunculan soal jenjang kognitif Bloom Revisi pada BSE khususnya yang mengembangkan Higher-Order Thinking Skills masih perlu untuk ditingkatkan.

  4. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2018-02-06

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  5. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  6. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Strode

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  7. Trends in hydrodesulfurization catalysis based on realistic surface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moses, P.G.; Grabow, L.C.; Fernandez Sanchez, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Trends in hydrodesulfurization (HDS) activity are investigated on the basis of surface properties calculated by density functional theory for a series of HDS catalysts. It is shown that approximately linear correlations exist between HS group binding energies and activation barriers of key elemen...

  8. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly <0.1. Various factors can contribute to discrepancies in water storage trends between models and GRACE, including uncertainties in precipitation, model calibration, storage capacity, and water use in models and uncertainties in GRACE data related to processing, glacier leakage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The GRACE data indicate that land has a large capacity to store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be

  9. Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2001-2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Y.; Konopka, P.; Liu, Y.; Chen, H.; Müller, R.; Plöger, F.; Riese, M.; Cai, Z.; Lü, D.

    2012-01-01

    Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O3) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photoche...

  10. Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Wang; P. Konopka; Y. Liu; H. Chen; R. Müller; F. Plöger; M. Riese; Z. Cai; D. Lü

    2012-01-01

    Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O3) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone for the entire time serie...

  11. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

  12. Poly-γ-glutamic acid productivity of Bacillus subtilis BsE1 has positive function in motility and biocontrol against Fusarium graminearum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Luyao; Wang, Ning; Mi, Dandan; Luo, Yuming; Guo, Jianhua

    2017-07-01

    In this study, we investigate the relationship between γ-PGA productivity and biocontrol capacity of Bacillus subtilis BsE1; one bacterial isolate displayed 62.14% biocontrol efficacy against Fusarium root rot. The γ-PGA yield assay, motility assay, wheat root colonization assay, and biological control assay were analysed in different γ-PGA yield mutants of BsE1. The pgsB (PGA-synthase-CapB gene) deleted mutant of BsE1 reduced γ-PGA yield and exhibited apparent decline of in vitro motile ability. Deletion of pgsB impaired colonizing capacity of BsE1 on wheat root in 30 days, also lowered biocontrol efficacies from 62.08% (wild type BsE1) to 14.22% in greenhouse experiment against Fusarium root rot. The knockout of pgdS and ggt (genes relate to two γ-PGA degrading enzymes) on BsE1, leads to a considerable improvement in polymer yield and biocontrol efficacy, which attains higher level compared with wild type BsE1. Compared with ΔpgsB mutant, defense genes related to reactive oxygen species (ROS) and phytoalexin expressed changes by notable levels on wheat roots treated with BsE1, demonstrating the functional role γ-PGA plays in biocontrol against Fusarium root rot. γ-PGA is not only important to the motile and plant root colonization ability of BsE1, but also essential to the biological control performed by BsE1 against Fusarium root rot. Our goal in this study is to reveals a new perspective of BCAs screening on bacterial isolates, without good performance during pre-assays of antagonism ability.

  13. New trends in parameter identification for mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Leitão, Antonio; Zubelli, Jorge

    2018-01-01

    The Proceedings volume contains 16 contributions to the IMPA conference “New Trends in Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models”, Rio de Janeiro, Oct 30 – Nov 3, 2017, integrating the “Chemnitz Symposium on Inverse Problems on Tour”.  This conference is part of the “Thematic Program on Parameter Identification in Mathematical Models” organized  at IMPA in October and November 2017. One goal is to foster the scientific collaboration between mathematicians and engineers from the Brazialian, European and Asian communities. Main topics are iterative and variational regularization methods in Hilbert and Banach spaces for the stable approximate solution of ill-posed inverse problems, novel methods for parameter identification in partial differential equations, problems of tomography ,  solution of coupled conduction-radiation problems at high temperatures, and the statistical solution of inverse problems with applications in physics.

  14. Risk, science and policy: definitional struggles, information management, the media and BSE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D

    1999-11-01

    This article examines the role of definitional struggles in the science policy interface using the example of the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease in the UK. A central contention is that an explicit focus on definition illuminates the processes by which scientific judgements are made, promoted, communicated, assessed and judged and gives an improved picture of policy making. Neglected areas such as the role of secrecy, public relations and the mass media in the science-policy interface are brought into sharper focus as an intrinsic part of the wider operation of definitional struggles. The focus on definitional struggles also sheds light on some current work on risk in social theory. It is argued that the neglect of questions of agency which are central to definitional struggles has led to some theorists presenting risks as inevitable concomitants of technological and cultural developments leaving them in the grip of political quietism.

  15. Temperature trends during the Present and Last Interglacial periods - a multi-model-data comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, P.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Martrat, B.; Charbit, S.; Renssen, H.; Gröger, M.; Krebs-Kanzow, U.; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Pfeiffer, M.; Phipps, S. J.; Prange, M.; Ritz, S. P.; Schulz, M.; Stenni, B.; Stone, E. J.; Varma, V.

    2014-09-01

    Though primarily driven by insolation changes associated with well-known variations in Earth's astronomical parameters, the response of the climate system during interglacials includes a diversity of feedbacks involving the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation and land ice. A thorough multi-model-data comparison is essential to assess the ability of climate models to resolve interglacial temperature trends and to help in understanding the recorded climatic signal and the underlying climate dynamics. We present the first multi-model-data comparison of transient millennial-scale temperature changes through two intervals of the Present Interglacial (PIG; 8-1.2 ka) and the Last Interglacial (LIG; 123-116.2 ka) periods. We include temperature trends simulated by 9 different climate models, alkenone-based temperature reconstructions from 117 globally distributed locations (about 45% of them within the LIG) and 12 ice-core-based temperature trends from Greenland and Antarctica (50% of them within the LIG). The definitions of these specific interglacial intervals enable a consistent inter-comparison of the two intervals because both are characterised by minor changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and more importantly by insolation trends that show clear similarities. Our analysis shows that in general the reconstructed PIG and LIG Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude cooling compares well with multi-model, mean-temperature trends for the warmest months and that these cooling trends reflect a linear response to the warmest-month insolation decrease over the interglacial intervals. The most notable exception is the strong LIG cooling trend reconstructed from Greenland ice cores that is not simulated by any of the models. A striking model-data mismatch is found for both the PIG and the LIG over large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where the data depicts negative temperature trends that are not in agreement with near zero

  16. Development and evaluation of multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends in multiple domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Meeuwissen, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social

  17. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    responsible for run-off generation plays a major role in run-off modelling at region scales. Remote sensing, GIS and advancement of the computer technology based evaluation of land surface prop- erties at spatial and temporal scales are very useful input data for hydrological models. Using remote sensing data is not only ...

  18. Models of marine molluscan diseases: Trends and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Eric N; Hofmann, Eileen E

    2015-10-01

    Disease effects on host population dynamics and the transmission of pathogens between hosts are two important challenges for understanding how epizootics wax and wane and how disease influences host population dynamics. For the management of marine shellfish resources, marine diseases pose additional challenges in early intervention after the appearance of disease, management of the diseased population to limit a decline in host abundance, and application of measures to restrain that decline once it occurs. Mathematical models provide one approach for quantifying these effects and addressing the competing goals of managing the diseased population versus managing the disease. The majority of models for molluscan diseases fall into three categories distinguished by these competing goals. (1) Models that consider disease effects on the host population tend to focus on pathogen proliferation within the host. Many of the well-known molluscan diseases are pandemic, in that they routinely reach high prevalence rapidly over large geographic expanses, are characterized by transmission that does not depend upon a local source, and exert a significant influence on host population dynamics. Models focused on disease proliferation examine the influence of environmental change on host population metrics and provide a basis to better manage diseased stocks. Such models are readily adapted to questions of fishery management and habitat restoration. (2) Transmission models are designed to understand the mechanisms triggering epizootics, identify factors impeding epizootic development, and evaluate controls on the rate of disease spread over the host's range. Transmission models have been used extensively to study terrestrial diseases, yet little attention has been given to their potential for understanding the epidemiology of marine molluscan diseases. For management of diseases of wild stocks, transmission models open up a range of options, including the application of area

  19. Non-existence of Steady State Equilibrium in the Neoclassical Growth Model with a Longevity Trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem

    of steady state equilibrium when considering the empirically observed trend in longevity. We extend a standard continuous time overlapping generations model by a longevity trend and are thereby able to study the properties of mortality-driven population growth. This turns out to be exceedingly complicated...... to handle, and it is shown that in general no steady state equilibrium exists. Consequently analytical results and long run implications cannot be obtained in a setting with a realistic demographic setup....

  20. Turbulent Combustion Modeling Advances, New Trends and Perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Echekki, Tarek

    2011-01-01

    Turbulent combustion sits at the interface of two important nonlinear, multiscale phenomena: chemistry and turbulence. Its study is extremely timely in view of the need to develop new combustion technologies in order to address challenges associated with climate change, energy source uncertainty, and air pollution. Despite the fact that modeling of turbulent combustion is a subject that has been researched for a number of years, its complexity implies that key issues are still eluding, and a theoretical description that is accurate enough to make turbulent combustion models rigorous and quantitative for industrial use is still lacking. In this book, prominent experts review most of the available approaches in modeling turbulent combustion, with particular focus on the exploding increase in computational resources that has allowed the simulation of increasingly detailed phenomena. The relevant algorithms are presented, the theoretical methods are explained, and various application examples are given. The book ...

  1. External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Zelinka, Mark; Klein, Stephen A.; Bonfils, Celine; Caldwell, Peter; Doutriaux, Charles; Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

  2. Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5, although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the

  3. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  4. Nuclear reactor fuel rod behavior modelling and current trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colak, Ue.

    2001-01-01

    Safety assessment of nuclear reactors is carried out by simulating the events to taking place in nuclear reactors by realistic computer codes. Such codes are developed in a way that each event is represented by differential equations derived based on physical laws. Nuclear fuel is an important barrier against radioactive fission gas release. The release of radioactivity to environment is the main concern and this can be avoided by preserving the integrity of fuel rod. Therefore, safety analyses should cover an assessment of fuel rod behavior with certain extent. In this study, common approaches for fuel behavior modeling are discussed. Methods utilized by widely accepted computer codes are reviewed. Shortcomings of these methods are explained. Current research topics to improve code reliability and problems encountered in fuel rod behavior modeling are presented

  5. Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolomeu, S.; Carvalho, M. J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Melo-Gonçalves, P.; Rocha, A.

    2016-08-01

    Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change. This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation. The annual trends estimated for the 1986-2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal. Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains

  6. Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O3 during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr−1 for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr−1 for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

  7. Modeling the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in O3 Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine the influence of long-range pollutant transport on trends in surface level O3 distributions. The WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations were...

  8. New trends in interaction, virtual reality and modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Penichet, Victor MR; Gallud, José A

    2013-01-01

    The interaction between a user and a device forms the foundation of today's application design.Covering the following topics: * A suite of five structural principles helping designers to structure their mockups;* An agile method for exploiting desktop eye tracker equipment in combination with mobile devices;* An approach to explore large-scale collections based on classification systems;* A framework based on the use of modeling and components composition techniques to simplify the development of organizational collaborative systems;* A low-cost virtual reality system that provides highly sati

  9. The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, Stanislav

    2005-01-01

    Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

  10. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  11. Trends in Ocean Irradiance using a Radiative Model Forced with Terra Aerosols and Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy; Romanou, Anastasia

    2010-01-01

    Aerosol and cloud information from MODIS on Terra provide enhanced capability to understand surface irradiance over the oceans and its variability. These relationships can be important for ocean biology and carbon cycles. An established radiative transfer model, the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is used to describe ocean irradiance variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. The model is forced with information on aerosols and clouds from the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. A 7-year record (2000-2006) showed no trends in global ocean surface irradiance or photosynthetic available irradiance (PAR). There were significant (P20 W/sq m. The trends using MODIS data contrast with results from OASIM using liquid water path estimates from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Here, a global trend of -2 W/sq m was observed, largely dues to a large negative trend in the Antarctic -12 W/sq m. These results suggest the importance of the choice of liquid water path data sets in assessments of medium-length trends in ocean surface irradiance. The choices also impact the evaluation of changes in ocean biogeochemistry.

  12. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  13. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  14. Economic analysis of animal disease outbreaks--BSE and Bluetongue disease as examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gethmann, Jörn; Probst, Carolina; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Conraths, Franz Josef

    2015-01-01

    Although there is a long tradition of research on animal disease control, economic evaluation of control measures is rather limited in veterinary medicine. This may, on the one hand, be due to the different types of costs and refunds and the different people and organizations bearing them, such as animal holders, county, region, state or European Union, but it may also be due to the fact that economic analyses are both complex and time consuming. Only recently attention has turned towards economic analysis in animal disease control. Examples include situations, when decisions between different control measures must be taken, especially if alternatives to culling or compulsory vaccination are under discussion. To determine an optimal combination of control measures (strategy), a cost-benefit analysis should be performed. It is not necessary to take decisions only based on the financial impact, but it becomes possible to take economic aspects into account. To this end, the costs caused by the animal disease and the adopted control measures must be assessed. This article presents a brief overview of the methodological approaches used to retrospectively analyse the economic impact of two particular relevant diseases in Germany in the last few years: Blue-tongue disease (BT) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

  15. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  16. Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

    2016-01-01

    Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with

  17. Robust option replication for a Black-Scholes model extended with nondeterministic trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoenmakers, J.G.M.; Kloeden, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    Statistical analysis on various stocks reveals long range dependence behavior of the stock prices that is not consistent with the classical Black and Scholes model. This memory or nondeterministic trend behavior is often seen as a reflection of market sentiments and causes that the historical

  18. Age Differences within Secular IQ Trends: An Individual Growth Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanaya, Tomoe; Ceci, Stephen J.; Scullin, Matthew H.

    2005-01-01

    Age differences within the yo-yo trend in IQ, caused when aging norms that produce inflated scores are replaced with new norms, were examined using longitudinal WISC, WISC-R and WISC-III records of students tested for special education services from 10 school districts. Descriptive and individual growth modeling analyses revealed that while the…

  19. Why are models unable to reproduce multi-decadal trends in lower tropospheric baseline ozone levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Liu, J.; Mickley, L. J.; Strahan, S. E.; Steenrod, S.

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing rely on accurate model simulations. Parrish et al (2014) found that three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) overestimate present-day O3 mixing ratios and capture only 50% of the observed O3 increase over the last five decades at 12 baseline sites in the northern mid-latitudes, indicating large uncertainties in our understanding of the ozone trends and their implications for radiative forcing. Here we present comparisons of outputs from two chemical transport models (CTMs) - GEOS-Chem and the Global Modeling Initiative model - with O3 observations from the same sites and from the global ozonesonde network. Both CTMs are driven by reanalysis meteorological data (MERRA or MERRA2) and thus are expected to be different in atmospheric transport processes relative to those freely running CCMs. We test whether recent model developments leading to more active ozone chemistry affect the computed ozone sensitivity to perturbations in emissions. Preliminary results suggest these CTMs can reproduce present-day ozone levels but fail to capture the multi-decadal trend since 1980. Both models yield widespread overpredictions of free tropospheric ozone in the 1980s. Sensitivity studies in GEOS-Chem suggest that the model estimate of natural background ozone is too high. We discuss factors that contribute to the variability and trends of tropospheric ozone over the last 30 years, with a focus on intermodel differences in spatial resolution and in the representation of stratospheric chemistry, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, halogen chemistry, and biogenic VOC emissions and chemistry. We also discuss uncertainty in the historical emission inventories used in models, and how these affect the simulated ozone trends.

  20. Long Wavelength SAR Backscatter Modelling Trends as a Consequence of the Emergent Properties of Tree Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Brolly

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the novel use of a macroecological plant and forest structure model in conjunction with a Radiative Transfer (RT model to better understand interactions between microwaves and forest canopies. Trends predicted by the RT model, resulting from interactions with mixed age, mono and multi species forests, are analysed in comparison to those predicted using a simplistic structure based scattering model. This model relates backscatter to scatterer cross sectional or volume specifications, dependent on the size. The Spatially Explicit Reiterative Algorithm (SERA model is used to provide a widely varied tree size distribution while maintaining allometric consistency to produce a natural-like forest representation. The RT model is parameterised using structural information from SERA and microwave backscatter simulations are used to analyse the impact of changes to the forest stand. Results show that the slope of the saturation curve observed in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR backscatter-biomass relationship is sensitive to thinning and therefore forest basal area. Due to similarities displayed between the results of the RT and simplistic model, it is determined that forest SAR backscatter behaviour at long microwave wavelengths may be described generally using equations related to total stem volume and basal area. The nature of these equations is such that they describe saturating behaviour of forests in the absence of attenuation in comparable fashion to the trends exhibited using the RT model. Both modelled backscatter trends predict a   relationship to forest basal area from an early age when forest volume is increasing. When this is not the case, it is assumed to be a result of attenuation of the dominant stem-ground interaction due to the presence of excessive numbers of stems. This work shows how forest growth models can be successfully incorporated into existing independent scattering models and reveals, through the RT

  1. Using regression heteroscedasticity to model trends in the mean and variance of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Jory; Vogel, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Changes in the frequency of extreme floods have been observed and anticipated in many hydrological settings in response to numerous drivers of environmental change, including climate, land cover, and infrastructure. To help decision-makers design flood control infrastructure in settings with non-stationary hydrological regimes, a parsimonious approach for detecting and modeling trends in extreme floods is needed. An approach using ordinary least squares (OLS) to fit a heteroscedastic regression model can accommodate nonstationarity in both the mean and variance of flood series while simultaneously offering a means of (i) analytically evaluating type I and type II trend detection errors, (ii) analytically generating expressions of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals, (iii) providing updated estimates of the frequency of floods exceeding the flood of record, (iv) accommodating a wide range of non-linear functions through ladder of powers transformations, and (v) communicating hydrological changes in a single graphical image. Previous research has shown that the two-parameter lognormal distribution can adequately model the annual maximum flood distribution of both stationary and non-stationary hydrological regimes in many regions of the United States. A simple logarithmic transformation of annual maximum flood series enables an OLS heteroscedastic regression modeling approach to be especially suitable for creating a non-stationary flood frequency distribution with parameters that are conditional upon time or physically meaningful covariates. While heteroscedasticity is often viewed as an impediment, we document how detecting and modeling heteroscedasticity presents an opportunity for characterizing both the conditional mean and variance of annual maximum floods. We introduce an approach through which variance trend models can be analytically derived from the behavior of residuals of the conditional mean flood model. Through case studies of

  2. Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2017-01-01

    In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

  3. Following a trend with an exponential moving average: Analytical results for a Gaussian model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) and asymptotic behavior (quantiles). We show that the asymmetry of the distribution (with often small losses and less frequent but significant profits) is reminiscent to trend following strategies and less dependent on peculiarities of price variations. At short times, trend following strategies admit larger losses than one may anticipate from standard Gaussian estimates, while smaller losses are ensured at longer times. Simple explicit formulas characterizing the distribution of P&Ls illustrate the basic mechanisms of momentum trading, while general matrix representations can be applied to arbitrary Gaussian models. We also compute explicitly annualized risk adjusted P&L and strategy turnover to account for transaction costs. We deduce the trend following optimal timescale and its dependence on both auto-correlation level and transaction costs. Theoretical results are illustrated on the Dow Jones index.

  4. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

    2017-08-01

    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  5. Trends of air pollution in Denmark - Normalised by a simple weather index model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Rasmussen, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a part of the Traffic Pool projects on 'Traffic and Environments', 1995-99, financed by the Danish Ministry of Transport. The Traffic Pool projects included five different projects on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality', 'Atmospheric Modelling', 'Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling', 'Smog and ozone' and 'Greenhouse effects and Climate', [Rasmussen, 2000]. This work is a part of the project on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality' with the main objectives to make trend analysis of levels of air pollution from traffic in Denmark. Other participants were from the Road Directory mainly focusing on measurement of traffic and trend analysis of the air quality utilising a nordic model for the air pollution in street canyons called BLB (Beregningsmodel for Luftkvalitet i Byluftgader) [Vejdirektoratet 2000], National Environmental Research Institute (HERI) mainly focusing on. measurements of air pollution and trend analysis with the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) [DMU 2000], and the Copenhagen Environmental Protection Agency mainly focusing on measurements. In this study a more simple statistical model has been developed for trend analysis of the air quality. The model is filtering out the influence of the variations from year to year in the meteorological conditions on the air pollution levels. The weather factors found most important are wind speed, wind direction and mixing height. Measurements of CO, NO and NO 2 from three streets in Copenhagen have been used, these streets are Jagtvej, Bredgade and H. C. Andersen's Boulevard (HCAB). The years 1994-1996 were used for evaluation of the method and annual indexes of air pollution index dependent only on meteorological parameters, called WEATHIX, were calculated for the years 1990-1997 and used for normalisation of the observed air pollution trends. Meteorological data were taken from either the background stations at the H.C. Oersted - building situated close to one of the street stations or the synoptic

  6. Absence of Evidence for a Causal Link between Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Strain Variant L-BSE and Known Forms of Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease in Human PrP Transgenic Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaumain, Emilie; Quadrio, Isabelle; Herzog, Laetitia; Reine, Fabienne; Rezaei, Human; Andréoletti, Olivier; Laude, Hubert; Perret-Liaudet, Armand; Haïk, Stéphane; Béringue, Vincent

    2016-12-01

    Prions are proteinaceous pathogens responsible for subacute spongiform encephalopathies in animals and humans. The prions responsible for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are zoonotic agents, causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans. The transfer of prions between species is limited by a species barrier, which is thought to reflect structural incompatibilities between the host cellular prion protein (PrP C ) and the infecting pathological PrP assemblies (PrP Sc ) constituting the prion. A BSE strain variant, designated L-BSE and responsible for atypical, supposedly spontaneous forms of prion diseases in aged cattle, demonstrates zoonotic potential, as evidenced by its capacity to propagate more easily than classical BSE in transgenic mice expressing human PrP C and in nonhuman primates. In humanized mice, L-BSE propagates without any apparent species barrier and shares similar biochemical PrP Sc signatures with the CJD subtype designated MM2-cortical, thus opening the possibility that certain CJD cases classified as sporadic may actually originate from L-type BSE cross-transmission. To address this issue, we compared the biological properties of L-BSE and those of a panel of CJD subtypes representative of the human prion strain diversity using standard strain-typing criteria in human PrP transgenic mice. We found no evidence that L-BSE causes a known form of sporadic CJD. Since the quasi-extinction of classical BSE, atypical BSE forms are the sole BSE variants circulating in cattle worldwide. They are observed in rare cases of old cattle, making them difficult to detect. Extrapolation of our results suggests that L-BSE may propagate in humans as an unrecognized form of CJD, and we urge both the continued utilization of precautionary measures to eliminate these agents from the human food chain and active surveillance for CJD phenotypes in the general population. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  7. Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manas Pandey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

  8. Research of combination model for prediction of the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-ping CHEN

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To establish a combination model of autoregressive integrated moving average model and the grey dynamics (ARIMA-GM of hepatitis B incidence rate (1/100 000 to predict the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B, as to provide a scientific basis for the early discovery of the infectious diseases for the performance of countermeasures of controlling its spread. Methods The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Qian'an city, Hebei province, was collected from Jan 2004 to Dec 2012, and a model (ARIMA was reproduced with SPSS software. The GM (1,1 model was used to correct the residual sequence with a threshold value, and a combined forecasting model was reproduced. This combination model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate in this city in 2013. Results The model ARIMA(0,1,1(0,1,112 was established successfully and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence. Then the GM (1,1 model with a threshold of 3 was used to correct its residuals and obtain its nonlinear feature extraction of information. The forecasting model met required precision standards (C=0.673, P=0.877, the fitting accuracy of which was basically qualified. The results showed that the MAE, MAPE of the ARIMA-GM combined model were smaller than that of a single model, and the combined model could improve the prediction accuracy. Using the combined model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis B during Jan 2013 to Dec 2013, the overall trend was relatively consistent with the condition of previous years. Conclusion The ARIMA-GM combined model can better fit the incidence rate of hepatitis B with a greater accuracy than the seasonal ARIMA model. The prediction results can provide the reference for the early warning system of HBV. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.12

  9. Model-based auralizations of violin sound trends accompanying plate-bridge tuning or holding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissinger, George; Mores, Robert

    2015-04-01

    To expose systematic trends in violin sound accompanying "tuning" only the plates or only the bridge, the first structural acoustics-based model auralizations of violin sound were created by passing a bowed-string driving force measured at the bridge of a solid body violin through the dynamic filter (DF) model radiativity profile "filter" RDF(f) (frequency-dependent pressure per unit driving force, free-free suspension, anechoic chamber). DF model auralizations for the more realistic case of a violin held/played in a reverberant auditorium reveal that holding the violin greatly diminishes its low frequency response, an effect only weakly compensated for by auditorium reverberation.

  10. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry F. Tjiputra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

  11. Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Erica; Eisenman, Ian

    2017-08-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, we find that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically corresponds with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. We show that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.

  12. Trend modelling of wave parameters and application in onboard prediction of ship responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montazeri, Najmeh; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, J. Juncher

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a trend analysis for prediction of sea state parameters onboard shipsduring voyages. Given those parameters, a JONSWAP model and also the transfer functions, prediction of wave induced ship responses are thus made. The procedure is tested with full-scale data of an in-service...... container ship. Comparison between predictions and the actual measurements, implies a good agreementin general. This method can be an efficient way to improve decision support on board ships....

  13. Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jirong

    2017-12-01

    The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

  14. Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaojian; Cui, Tingting; Fu, Jianhong; Peng, Jianwei; Shan, Jie

    2016-12-01

    Low-cost GPS (receiver) has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a) it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b) only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c) it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d) it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques.

  15. Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojian Chen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Low-cost GPS (receiver has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques.

  16. Trends and Challenges of Electronic Auctions as a New Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita Janeska

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The virtual internet based market allowed different forms of trading. Electronic business opens up new markets and market segments. Auctions are a very reliable and competitive trading model which allows to achieve fair prices and to choose the optimal business partners. The purpose of this model is that the system can extend the duration of the auction until they met various commercial applications.The basic motivation for research in this paper is the increasing trend of the use of electronic auctions in the process of selling and buying products and services.

  17. Model-simulated trend of surface carbon monoxide for the 2001–2010 decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    We present decadal trend estimates of surface carbon monoxide (CO) simulated using the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) based on the emission scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 for anthropogenic activity and Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) v3.1 for biomass burning from 2001 through 2010. The spatial distribution of the modeled surface CO is evaluated with monthly data from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) thermal infrared product. The global means of correlation coefficient and relative bias for the decade 2001-2010 are 0.95 and -4.29 %, respectively. We also find a reasonable correlation (R =0.78) between the trends of EMAC surface CO and full 10-year monthly records from ground-based observation (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases, WDCGG). Over western Europe, eastern USA, and northern Australia, the significant decreases in EMAC surface CO are estimated at -35.5±5.8, -59.6±9.1, and -13.7±9.5 ppbv per decade, respectively. In contrast, the surface CO increases by +8.9±4.8 ppbv per decade over southern Asia. A high correlation (R =0.92) between the changes in EMAC-simulated surface CO and total emission flux shows that the significant regional trends are attributed to the changes in primary and direct emissions from both anthropogenic activity and biomass burning.

  18. The N-terminal cleavage site of PrPSc from BSE differs from that of PrPSc from scrapie.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hiroko K; Yokoyama, Takashi; Takata, Masuhiro; Iwamaru, Yoshifumi; Imamura, Morikazu; Ushiki, Yuko K; Shinagawa, Morikazu

    2005-03-25

    Heterogeneity in transmissible spongiform encephalopathy is thought to have derived from conformational variation in an abnormal isoform of the prion protein (PrPSc). To characterize PrPSc in bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie, we analyzed the newly generated N-terminus of PrPSc isoforms by digestion with proteinase K (PK). With a lower concentration of PK, the terminal amino acid of BSE PrPSc converged at N96. Under the same conditions, however, the terminal amino acid of scrapie PrPSc was G81 or G85. Furthermore, with an increase of PK concentration, the N-terminal amino acid was shifted and converged at G89. The results suggest that the PK cleavage site of BSE PrPSc is uniform and is different from the cleavage site of scrapie PrPSc.

  19. Optical properties calculations of the phosphorene-CrO3 system within the G0W0 and BSE approximations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Pereda, Pamela; Galícia-Hernández, José M.; Cocoletzi, Gregorio H.

    2017-09-01

    Phosphorene, the two-dimensional counterpart of black phosphorus, is under current intense investigation in order to be applied in gas sensor devices. In regard to the material excited-state properties, these may be sensitive to molecular adsorption. Therefore, in this work we theoretically study the change in the optical properties of phosphorene-CrO3 systems considering different CrO3 surface coverage (0.0%, 34.3% and 68.6%). The CrO3 molecule is a powerful oxidizer and a suspected carcinogen. To determine rigorously the optical properties of CrO3 adsorbed on a surface is mandatory the use of the G0W0 approximation and the solution of the Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) with the inclusion of van der Waals forces. As part of the results, this work shows the electrical band gap values obtained by the application of the G0W0 approximation, optical band gap values derived from the solution of the BSE and an analysis on the optical in-plane anisotropy of the composed phosphorene-CrO3 systems. Ultimately, results show that the band gap, the optical absorption spectrum and the optical in-plane anisotropy of phosphorene can be broadly tuned by changing the amount of CrO3 surface coverage and molecular disposition.

  20. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  1. Modelling impacts of temperature, and acidifying and eutrophying deposition on DOC trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Rowe, Ed; Evans, Chris; Monteith, Don; Vanguelova, Elena; Wade, Andrew; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in large parts of the northern hemisphere have risen over the past three decades, raising concern about enhanced contributions of carbon to the atmosphere and seas and oceans. The effect of declining acid deposition has been identified as a key control on DOC trends in soil and surface waters, since pH and ionic strength affect sorption and desorption of DOC. However, since DOC is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists regarding the extent to the relative importance of different drivers that affect these upward trends. We ran the dynamic model MADOC (Model of Acidity and Soil Organic Carbon) for a range of UK soils (podzols, gleysols and peatland), for which the time-series were available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20 years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to elevate the DOC recovery trajectory significantly. The second most influential cause of rising DOC in the model simulations was N deposition in ecosystems that are N-limited and respond with stimulated plant growth. Although non-marine chloride deposition made some contribution to acidification and recovery, it was not amongst the main drivers of DOC change. Warming had almost no effect on modelled historic DOC trends, but may prove to be a significant driver of DOC in future via its influence

  2. A computational model to monitor and predict trends in bacterial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Davies, Christopher; White, Roger; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2015-09-01

    Current concern over the emergence of multidrug-resistant superbugs has renewed interest in approaches that can monitor existing trends in bacterial resistance and make predictions of future trends. Recent advances in bacterial surveillance and the development of online repositories of susceptibility tests across wide geographical areas provide an important new resource, yet there are only limited computational tools for its exploitation. Here we propose a hybrid computational model called BARDmaps for automated analysis of antibacterial susceptibility tests from surveillance records and for performing future predictions. BARDmaps was designed to include a structural computational model that can detect patterns among bacterial resistance changes as well as a behavioural computational model that can use the detected patterns to predict future changes in bacterial resistance. Data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) were used to validate and apply the model. BARDmaps was compared with standard curve-fitting approaches used in epidemiological research. Here we show that BARDmaps can reliably predict future trends in bacterial resistance across Europe. BARDmaps performed better than other curve-fitting approaches for predicting future resistance levels. In addition, BARDmaps was also able to detect abrupt changes in bacterial resistance in response to outbreaks and interventions as well as to compare bacterial behaviour across countries and drugs. In conclusion, BARDmaps is a reliable tool to automatically predict and analyse changes in bacterial resistance across Europe. We anticipate that BARDmaps will become an invaluable tool both for clinical providers and governmental agencies to help combat the threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

  3. Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Detlef

    2017-04-01

    Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later

  4. Geospatial Modeling for Investigating Spatial Pattern and Change Trend of Temperature and Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Abu Syed

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh has been experiencing increased temperature and change in precipitation regime, which might adversely affect the important ecosystems in the country differentially. The river flows and groundwater recharge over space and time are determined by changes in temperature, evaporation and crucially precipitation. These again have a spatio-temporal dimension. This geospatial modeling research aimed at investigating spatial patterns and changing trends of temperature and rainfall within the geographical boundary of Bangladesh. This would facilitate better understanding the change pattern and their probable impacts on the ecosystem. The southeastern region, which is one of the most important forest ecosystem zones in the country, is experiencing early onset and withdrawal of rain but increasing trends in total rainfall except in the Monsoon season. This means that the region is experiencing a lower number of rainy days. However, total rainfall has not changed significantly. The differential between maximum and minimum showed an increasing trend. This changing pattern in average max and min temperature along with precipitation might cause a situation in which the species that are growing now may shift to suitable habitats elsewhere in the future. Consequently, the biodiversity, watersheds and fisheries, productivity of land, agriculture and food security in the region will be affected by these observed changes in climate.

  5. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  6. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  7. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  8. Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

  9. Digital Revolution and Innovative Business Models in Healthcare: Global Trends and Russian Realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereznoy, A V; Saygitov, R T

    Digital revolution is one of the major global trends resulting in the unprecedented scale and depth of penetration of information and communication technologies into all sectors of national economy, including healthcare. The development of this trend brought about high expectations related to the improvement of quality of medical assistance, accessibility and economic efficiency of healthcare services. However, euphoria of the first steps of digital revolution is passing now, opening doors to more realistic analysis of opportunities and conditions of realization of the true potential hidden in the digital transformation of healthcare. More balanced perception of the peculiarities of innovation processes in the sector is coming together with understanding of the serious barriers, hampering implementation of the new ideas and practices due to complicated interweaving of social, economic, ethical and psychological factors. When taking into account the industry specifics it becomes evident that digital revolution cannot be a quick turnaround but rather would pass a number of phases and is likely to last more than one decade. In this context the article focuses on the prospects of the new business models, capable of making significant changes in today’s economic landscape of the sector (including uber-medicine, retail clinics, retainer medicine, network models of medical services). The authors also provide assessment of the current situation and perspectives of digital healthcare development in Russia.

  10. Comparative Study on the Performance of Bachelor of Secondary Education (BSE) Students in Educational Technology Using Blended Learning Strategy and Traditional Face-to-Face Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, Arnold R.

    2017-01-01

    Technology offers various tools of improving the teaching -- learning process. It revolutionizes teaching from traditional face-to-face to distance and online learning. This study described and compared the performance of BSE II students in educational technology using the traditional face-to-face classroom interaction and the blended learning…

  11. Differential effects of a new amphotericin B derivative, MS-8209, on mouse BSE and scrapie: implications for the mechanism of action of polyene antibiotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjou, K T; Demaimay, R; Lasmézas, C I; Seman, M; Deslys, J P; Dormont, D

    1996-01-01

    Mice were infected intracerebrally with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or the scrapie agent and treated during 8 weeks postinfection to test the protective effect of a new amphotericin B (AmB) derivative, MS-8209, in experimental transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The results show that (i) the treatment prolonged the incubation period of both BSE-infected and scrapie-infected mice, (ii) MS-8209 and AmB were much more efficient in delaying the onset of scrapie than that of BSE, and (iii) a delay in Prp-res (proteinase K-resistant prion protein) and GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein) accumulation was observed in the brains of scrapie-infected mice, but was not significant in BSE-infected mice. The analysis of the molecular and clinical results strongly suggests a common mechanism of action of this category of drugs on the different transmissible spongiform encephalopathy strains. This could be due to an interaction with the PrP transconformation process leading to the formation of PrP-res.

  12. Modelling the decadal trend of ecosystem carbon fluxes demonstrates the important role of functional changes in a temperate deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jian; Jansson, P.E.; van der Linden, Leon

    2013-01-01

    Temperate forests are globally important carbon sinks and stocks. Trends in net ecosystem exchange have been observed in a Danish beech forest and this trend cannot be entirely attributed to changing climatic drivers. This study sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the observed trend......, using a dynamic ecosystem model (CoupModel) and model data fusion with multiple constraints and model experiments. Experiments with different validation datasets showed that a multiple constraints model data fusion approach that included the annual tree growth, the seasonal canopy development......, the latent and sensible heat fluxes and the CO2 fluxes decreased the parameter uncertainty considerably compared to using CO2 fluxes as validation data alone. The fitted model was able to simulate the observed carbon fluxes well (R2=0.8, mean error=0.1gCm−2d−1) but did not reproduce the decadal (1997...

  13. Modelling hydrochemical and ecological trends in acid sensitive surface waters in the Scottish Highlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin KERNAN

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic model MAGIC is used to predict the future response of surface waters to reductions in S deposition as stipulated by the recently agreed emission protocol (the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol. MAGIC was calibrated to 30 sites in the Scottish mountains with the best available soil and deposition data derived from large scale spatial datasets, and surface water chemistry from a regional loch survey conducted in October 2000. A comparison of input parameters and model responses are made at Lochnagar, a site for which detailed, high resolution spatial/temporal data exist. The model is capable of reproducing observed trends in non-marine SO4 2-, however simulated NO3 - from 1990 to 2000 is lower than the observed trends at Lochnagar due to possible hydrological controls and in-lake processes, rather than terrestrial processes. The Scottish Highlands are remote from emission sources and consequently peak deposition inputs of S in the 1980s are relatively low (33 kg S ha-1 y-1 compared to other regions in Europe. Nonetheless the amount of deposition appears sufficient to cause environmental damage in this acid sensitive region. During the 1980s, simulated Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC of 13% of the modelled lakes was <20 μeq l-1, a chemical condition that potentially can cause damage to freshwater ecology. Regional and site simulations captured the recovery to 2000 in response to the existing emission reductions. Predictions to 2016 indicates the potential for biological recovery and a return to 'good status' as required by the EU Water Framework Directive, although the hydrochemistry of some sites remain some way from simulated pre-acidification conditions.

  14. Regional aerosol trends over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002: identifying and attributing using satellite, surface, and model datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongeward, A.; Li, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources can influence atmospheric variability and alter Earth's radiative balance through direct and indirect processes. Recently, policies targeting anthropogenic species (e.g. the Clean Air Act) have seen success in improving air quality. The anthropogenic contributions to the total aerosol loading and its spatiotemporal pattern/trend are anticipated to be altered. In this work the aerosol loading and trend over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002 are examined, a period of significant change due to anthropogenic emissions control measures within the U.S. Monthly mean data from satellite (MODIS), ground (AERONET, IMPROVE), and model (GOCART, MERRA) sources are employed. Two annual trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by MODIS are present: a -0.020 decade-1 trend in the mid-latitudes and a 0.015 decade-1 trend in the sub-tropics. Trends in GOCART species AOD reveal anthropogenic (natural) species as the likely driver of the mid-latitude (sub-tropical) trend. AERONET AOD trends confirm negative AOD trends at three upwind sites in the Eastern U.S. and IMPROVE particulate matter (PM) observations identifies the role of decreasing ammonium sulfate in the overall PM decrease. Meanwhile, an increasing AOD trend seen during summertime in the eastern sub-tropics is associated with dust aerosol from North Africa. A dust parameterization from Kaufman et al. (2005) allows for changes in the flux transport across the sub-tropics to be calculated and analyzed. Using MERRA reanalysis fields, it is hypothesized that amplified warming and increases in baroclinic instability over the Saharan desert may lead to increased dust mobilization and export from North Africa to the sub-tropical Atlantic. This study provides updated analysis through 2016.

  15. Trend and forecasting rate of cancer deaths at a public university hospital using univariate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, A.; Hassan, Noor I.

    2013-09-01

    Cancer is one of the principal causes of death in Malaysia. This study was performed to determine the pattern of rate of cancer deaths at a public hospital in Malaysia over an 11 year period from year 2001 to 2011, to determine the best fitted model of forecasting the rate of cancer deaths using Univariate Modeling and to forecast the rates for the next two years (2012 to 2013). The medical records of the death of patients with cancer admitted at this Hospital over 11 year's period were reviewed, with a total of 663 cases. The cancers were classified according to 10th Revision International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Data collected include socio-demographic background of patients such as registration number, age, gender, ethnicity, ward and diagnosis. Data entry and analysis was accomplished using SPSS 19.0 and Minitab 16.0. The five Univariate Models used were Naïve with Trend Model, Average Percent Change Model (ACPM), Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt's Method. The overall 11 years rate of cancer deaths showed that at this hospital, Malay patients have the highest percentage (88.10%) compared to other ethnic groups with males (51.30%) higher than females. Lung and breast cancer have the most number of cancer deaths among gender. About 29.60% of the patients who died due to cancer were aged 61 years old and above. The best Univariate Model used for forecasting the rate of cancer deaths is Single Exponential Smoothing Technique with alpha of 0.10. The forecast for the rate of cancer deaths shows a horizontally or flat value. The forecasted mortality trend remains at 6.84% from January 2012 to December 2013. All the government and private sectors and non-governmental organizations need to highlight issues on cancer especially lung and breast cancers to the public through campaigns using mass media, media electronics, posters and pamphlets in the attempt to decrease the rate of cancer deaths in Malaysia.

  16. Economic trends of tokamak power plants independent of physics scaling models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, R.L.; Steiner, D.

    1978-01-01

    This study examines the effects of plasma radius, field on axis, plasma impurity level, and aspect ratio on power level and unit capital cost, $/kW/sub e/, of tokamak power plants sized independent of plasma physics scaling models. It is noted that tokamaks sized in this manner are thermally unstable based on trapped particle scaling relationships. It is observed that there is an economic advantage for larger power level tokamaks achieved by physics independent sizing; however, the incentive for increased power levels is less than that for fission reactors. It is further observed that the economic advantage of these larger power level tokamaks is decreased when plasma thermal stability measures are incorporated, such as by increasing the plasma impurity concentration. This trend of economy with size obtained by physics independent sizing is opposite to that observed when the tokamak designs are constrained to obey the trapped particle and empirical scaling relationships

  17. Time series models of decadal trends in the harmful algal species Karlodinium veneficum in Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chih-Hsien Michelle; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Glibert, Patricia M

    2018-03-01

    The harmful dinoflagellate, Karlodnium veneficum, has been implicated in fish-kill and other toxic, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in waters worldwide. Blooms of K. veneficum are known to be related to coastal nutrient enrichment but the relationship is complex because this HAB taxon relies not only on dissolved nutrients but also particulate prey, both of which have also changed over time. Here, applying cross-correlations of climate-related physical factors, nutrients and prey, with abundance of K. veneficum over a 10-year (2002-2011) period, a synthesis of the interactive effects of multiple factors on this species was developed for Chesapeake Bay, where blooms of the HAB have been increasing. Significant upward trends in the time series of K. veneficum were observed in the mesohaline stations of the Bay, but not in oligohaline tributary stations. For the mesohaline regions, riverine sources of nutrients with seasonal lags, together with particulate prey with zero lag, explained 15%-46% of the variation in the K. veneficum time series. For the oligohaline regions, nutrients and particulate prey generally showed significant decreasing trends with time, likely a reflection of nutrient reduction efforts. A conceptual model of mid-Bay blooms is presented, in which K. veneficum, derived from the oceanic end member of the Bay, may experience enhanced growth if it encounters prey originating from the tributaries with different patterns of nutrient loading and which are enriched in nitrogen. For all correlation models developed herein, prey abundance was a primary factor in predicting K. veneficum abundance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Williams, Neal M.; Brittain, Claire; Isaacs, Rufus; Gibbs, Jason; Ricketts, Taylor H.

    2016-01-01

    Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation’s pollinators. PMID:26699460

  19. 0–0 Energies Using Hybrid Schemes: Benchmarks of TD-DFT, CIS(D), ADC(2), CC2, and BSE/GW formalisms for 80 Real-Life Compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The 0–0 energies of 80 medium and large molecules have been computed with a large panel of theoretical formalisms. We have used an approach computationally tractable for large molecules, that is, the structural and vibrational parameters are obtained with TD-DFT, the solvent effects are accounted for with the PCM model, whereas the total and transition energies have been determined with TD-DFT and with five wave function approaches accounting for contributions from double excitations, namely, CIS(D), ADC(2), CC2, SCS-CC2, and SOS-CC2, as well as Green’s function based BSE/GW approach. Atomic basis sets including diffuse functions have been systematically applied, and several variations of the PCM have been evaluated. Using solvent corrections obtained with corrected linear-response approach, we found that three schemes, namely, ADC(2), CC2, and BSE/GW allow one to reach a mean absolute deviation smaller than 0.15 eV compared to the measurements, the two former yielding slightly better correlation with experiments than the latter. CIS(D), SCS-CC2, and SOS-CC2 provide significantly larger deviations, though the latter approach delivers highly consistent transition energies. In addition, we show that (i) ADC(2) and CC2 values are extremely close to each other but for systems absorbing at low energies; (ii) the linear-response PCM scheme tends to overestimate solvation effects; and that (iii) the average impact of nonequilibrium correction on 0–0 energies is negligible. PMID:26574326

  20. Recent trends of high-latitude vegetation activity assessed and explained by contrasting modelling approaches with earth observation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, M.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.; Thonicke, K.

    2012-04-01

    Satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed increasing trends in the arctic tundra and the boreal forests since the 1980s. This greening is related to an increase in photosynthetic activity and is driven by increasing temperatures and a prolongation of the growing season. However, NDVI experienced a decrease in large regions of the boreal forests since the mid-1990s. This browning is related to fire disturbances, temperature-induced summer drought and potentially to insect infestations and diseases. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) can be used to assess the impacts of these changes in vegetation productivity on the carbon and water cycles and on the climate system. In general, these models provide descriptions of ecosystem processes and states that are forced by and feedback to the climate system such as photosynthesis and transpiration, ecosystem respiration, soil carbon and water stocks and vegetation composition. The evaluation of TBMs against observations is a necessary step to assess their suitability to simulate such processes and dynamics. The increasing availability of long-term observations of vegetation activity enables us to evaluate the model ability to diagnose these vegetation greening and browning trends in arctic and boreal regions. The first aim of this study is to evaluate trends in vegetation activity in high-latitude regions as simulated by TBMs against observed trends in vegetation activity. The second aim is to identify potential drivers of these observed and simulated trends to evaluate the ability of models to reproduce the observed functional relations between climatic and environmental drivers and the vegetation trends. The trends in vegetation activity were estimated for a set of satellite-based remote sensing products: NDVI from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer), as well as FAPAR observations (Fraction of Observed Photosynthetically

  1. The contribution of anthropogenic bromine emissions to past stratospheric ozone trends: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.-M. Sinnhuber

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Bromine compounds play an important role in the depletion of stratospheric ozone. We have calculated the changes in stratospheric ozone in response to changes in the halogen loading over the past decades, using a two-dimensional (latitude/height model constrained by source gas mixing ratios at the surface. Model calculations of the decrease of total column ozone since 1980 agree reasonably well with observed ozone trends, in particular when the contribution from very short-lived bromine compounds is included. Model calculations with bromine source gas mixing ratios fixed at 1959 levels, corresponding approximately to a situation with no anthropogenic bromine emissions, show an ozone column reduction between 1980 and 2005 at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes of only ≈55% compared to a model run including all halogen source gases. In this sense anthropogenic bromine emissions are responsible for ≈45% of the model estimated column ozone loss at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. However, since a large fraction of the bromine induced ozone loss is due to the combined BrO/ClO catalytic cycle, the effect of bromine would have been smaller in the absence of anthropogenic chlorine emissions. The chemical efficiency of bromine relative to chlorine for global total ozone depletion from our model calculations, expressed by the so called α-factor, is 64 on an annual average. This value is much higher than previously published results. Updates in reaction rate constants can explain only part of the differences in α. The inclusion of bromine from very short-lived source gases has only a minor effect on the global mean α-factor.

  2. Using Growth Mixture Modeling for Clustering Asian and North African Countries on the Road Injury Death Trend (1990–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Salari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The physical injuries and financial implications as a result of road accidents have serious economic, cultural, and social effects. We conducted this study to determine any changes in the trend of road-accident-related deaths in Asian and North African countries from 1990 to 2010. Methods: The current study was carried out using data from the Global Burden of Disease database. First, the process was assessed using the growth curve divided into six regions. Moreover, the classification was done based on the death rate using growth mixed modeling. Results: The road injury death trend for men had more variations than women. Classification of these countries based on mortality using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to trend in road fatalities. Disregarding gender and sex, there were four optimal classes. The first three classes had a decreasing trend with the third class having the greatest decreasing trend. South Korea and Taiwan were in this group. Afghanistan, Indonesia, Thailand, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman lay in group 4 and had an increasing trend in road injury deaths. Conclusions: Successful interventions that developed countries have used to avoid casualties of road injuries could be used in developing countries. These include passing laws making the use of seatbelts and child seats compulsory and determining appropriate speed limits.

  3. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  4. Population trends of grassland birds in North America are linked to the prevalence of an agricultural epizootic in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocera, Joseph J; Koslowsky, Hannah M

    2011-03-22

    Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; "mad cow disease") outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak.

  5. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  6. A New-Trend Model-Based to Solve the Peak Power Problems in OFDM Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf A. Eltholth

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The high peak to average power ration (PAR levels of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM signals attract the attention of many researchers during the past decade. Existing approaches that attack this PAR issue are abundant, but no systematic framework or comparison between them exists to date. They sometimes even differ in the problem definition itself and consequently in the basic approach to follow. In this paper, we propose a new trend in mitigating the peak power problem in OFDM system based on modeling the effects of clipping and amplifier nonlinearities in an OFDM system. We showed that the distortion due to these effects is highly related to the dynamic range itself rather than the clipping level or the saturation level of the nonlinear amplifier, and thus we propose two criteria to reduce the dynamic range of the OFDM, namely, the use of MSK modulation and the use of Hadamard transform. Computer simulations of the OFDM system using Matlab are completely matched with the deduced model in terms of OFDM signal quality metrics such as BER, ACPR, and EVM. Also simulation results show that even the reduction of PAR using the two proposed criteria is not significat, and the reduction in the amount of distortion due to HPA is truley delightful.

  7. Modeling US Adult Obesity Trends: A System Dynamics Model for Estimating Energy Imbalance Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Huang, Terry T.-K.; Bures, Regina M.; Glass, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations. Methods. We divided the adult population into gender–race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender–race–BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation. Results. No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans. Conclusions. The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations’ needs. PMID:24832405

  8. EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Manders, Astrid; Mar, Kathleen; Mircea, Mihaela; Pay, Maria-Teresa; Raffort, Valentin; Tsyro, Svetlana; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Adani, Mario; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Bergström, Robert; Briganti, Gino; Butler, Tim; Cappelletti, Andrea; Couvidat, Florian; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Doumbia, Thierno; Fagerli, Hilde; Granier, Claire; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zig; Ojha, Narendra; Otero, Noelia; Schaap, Martijn; Sindelarova, Katarina; Stegehuis, Annemiek I.; Roustan, Yelva; Vautard, Robert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; Wind, Peter

    2017-09-01

    The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have - to date - completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990-2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact

  9. Current Trends in the Detection of Sociocultural Signatures: Data-Driven Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Bell, Eric B.; Corley, Courtney D.

    2014-09-15

    available that are shaping social computing as a strongly data-driven experimental discipline with an increasingly stronger impact on the decision-making process of groups and individuals alike. In this chapter, we review current advances and trends in the detection of sociocultural signatures. Specific embodiments of the issues discussed are provided with respect to the assessment of violent intent and sociopolitical contention. We begin by reviewing current approaches to the detection of sociocultural signatures in these domains. Next, we turn to the review of novel data harvesting methods for social media content. Finally, we discuss the application of sociocultural models to social media content, and conclude by commenting on current challenges and future developments.

  10. MODELING TRENDS OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geraskina Inna Nikolaevna

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national

  11. Cellular Scanning Strategy for Selective Laser Melting: Capturing Thermal Trends with a Low-Fidelity, Pseudo-Analytical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sankhya Mohanty

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of additive manufacturing processes are known to be computationally expensive. The resulting large runtimes prohibit their application in secondary analysis requiring several complete simulations such as optimization studies, and sensitivity analysis. In this paper, a low-fidelity pseudo-analytical model has been introduced to enable such secondary analysis. The model has been able to mimic a finite element model and was able to capture the thermal trends associated with the process. The model has been validated and subsequently applied in a small optimization case study. The pseudo-analytical modelling technique is established as a fast tool for primary modelling investigations.

  12. Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas F Bertram

    Full Text Available Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus, a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects', and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01% indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

  13. CORPORATE MODEL OF PUBLIC SECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga S. Makarenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the issues of development and functioning of corporate model of public sector of the Russian economy. Today Russia is fully influenced by consequences of entry into world economy. Privatization processes, on the one hand, and increase in intervention of the state in economy, on the other hand, changed composition and structure of the public sector of the Russian economy. Establishment of large state corporations and further increase in scales and directions of Russian government’s policy. These corporations acquired an extensive set of functions, large volumes of state property (federal budgetary funds, different production and financial assets, which ensured their activity in the long run. The state corporations carry out an important role in ensuring stable development of national economic systems for already several years, smoothing the so-called “failures” of the market, and create the necessary conditions for overcoming the crisis phenomena. The author presents the classification of economic sectors consisting of public, municipal and private sectors, studies the character and structure of public sector of the developed foreign countries. The carried-out comparative characteristic of main national models of public sector allowed to reveal the extent of state’s influence on the economy in the North American, Western European and Asian countries, as well as to define the main features of public sector in these countries. The concept and essence of the state corporation, as well as trends of their creation and development are also studied. The author proposes the corporate model of public sector of the Russian economy and defines its main characteristics. The analysis of the conducted research allowed to draw a conclusion on the need of further development of the state corporations and large national companies with the state participation.

  14. Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

    2017-02-01

    It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

  15. Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

  16. Beliefs and behaviors of breast cancer screening in women referring to health care centers in northwest Iran according to the champion health belief model scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouladi, Nasrin; Pourfarzi, Farhad; Mazaheri, Effat; Asl, Hossein Alimohammadi; Rezaie, Minoo; Amani, Fiouz; Nejad, Masumeh Rostam

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. All ages are susceptible and more than 90% of the patients can be cured with early diagnosis. Breast self-examination (BSE) and mammography can be useful for this aim. In this study we examined the components of the Champion health belief model to identify if they could predict the intentions of women to perform such screening. A total of 380 women aged 30 and above who had referred to health-care centers were assessed for use of breast cancer screening over the past year with a modified health belief model questionnaire. Logistic regression was applied to identify leading independent predictors. In this study 27% of the women performed BSE in the last year but only 6.8% of them used mammography as a way of screening. There were significant differences regarding all components of the model except for perceived severity between women that underwent BSE. over the past year and those that did not. Findings were similar for mammography. Regression analysis revealed that intentions to perform BSE were predicted by perceived self-efficacy and perceived barriers to BSE while intentions to perform mammography were predicted by perceived barriers. This study indicated that self-efficacy can support performance of BSE while perceived barriers are important for not performing both BSE and mammography. Thus we must educate women to increase their self-efficacy and decrease their perceived barriers.

  17. How do US and Canadian consumers value credence attributes associated with beef labels after the North American BSE crisis of 2003?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Bodo; Yang, Jun

    2010-01-01

    place a significant valuation on beef tested for BSE, which is striking because Canada's current legal environment does not permit testing and labelling of such beef by private industry participants. Montana consumers' valuation was found highest for a guarantee that the steaks were produced without GMO....... Effective supply-chain responses to consumers' valuation of credence attributes, for example, in the form of labelling, should therefore take consumers' heterogeneity into account....

  18. Trend of surface solar radiation over Asia simulated by aerosol transport-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemura, T.; Ohmura, A.

    2009-12-01

    Long-term records of surface radiation measurements indicate a decrease in the solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s (“global dimming”), then its recovery afterward (“global brightening”) at many locations all over the globe [Wild, 2009]. On the other hand, the global brightening is delayed over the Asian region [Ohmura, 2009]. It is suggested that these trends of the global dimming and brightening are strongly related with a change in aerosol loading in the atmosphere which affect the climate change through the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects. In this study, causes of the trend of the surface solar radiation over Asia during last several decades are analyzed with an aerosol transport-climate model, SPRINTARS. SPRINTARS is coupled with MIROC which is a general circulation model (GCM) developed by Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) [Takemura et al., 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009]. The horizontal and vertical resolutions are T106 (approximately 1.1° by 1.1°) and 56 layers, respectively. SPRINTARS includes the transport, radiation, cloud, and precipitation processes of all main tropospheric aerosols (black and organic carbons, sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt). The model treats not only the aerosol mass mixing ratios but also the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as prognostic variables, and the nucleation processes of cloud droplets and ice crystals depend on the number concentrations of each aerosol species. Changes in the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations affect the cloud radiation and precipitation processes in the model. Historical emissions, that is consumption of fossil fuel and biofuel, biomass burning, aircraft emissions, and volcanic eruptions are prescribed from database provided by the Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (AeroCom) and the latest IPCC inventories

  19. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  20. Regression model analysis of the decreasing trend of cesium-137 concentration in the atmosphere since the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitayama, Kyo; Ohse, Kenji; Shima, Nagayoshi; Kawatsu, Kencho; Tsukada, Hirofumi

    2016-11-01

    The decreasing trend of the atmospheric 137 Cs concentration in two cities in Fukushima prefecture was analyzed by a regression model to clarify the relation between the parameter of the decrease in the model and the trend and to compare the trend with that after the Chernobyl accident. The 137 Cs particle concentration measurements were conducted in urban Fukushima and rural Date sites from September 2012 to June 2015. The 137 Cs particle concentrations were separated in two groups: particles of more than 1.1 μm aerodynamic diameters (coarse particles) and particles with aerodynamic diameter lower than 1.1 μm (fine particles). The averages of the measured concentrations were 0.1 mBq m -3 in Fukushima and Date sites. The measured concentrations were applied in the regression model which decomposed them into two components: trend and seasonal variation. The trend concentration included the parameters for the constant and the exponential decrease. The parameter for the constant was slightly different between the Fukushima and Date sites. The parameter for the exponential decrease was similar for all the cases, and much higher than the value of the physical radioactive decay except for the concentration in the fine particles at the Date site. The annual decreasing rates of the 137 Cs concentration evaluated by the trend concentration ranged from 44 to 53% y -1 with average and standard deviation of 49 ± 8% y -1 for all the cases in 2013. In the other years, the decreasing rates also varied slightly for all cases. These indicated that the decreasing trend of the 137 Cs concentration was nearly unchanged for the location and ground contamination level in the three years after the accident. The 137 Cs activity per aerosol particle mass also decreased with the same trend as the 137 Cs concentration in the atmosphere. The results indicated that the decreasing trend of the atmospheric 137 Cs concentration was related with the reduction of the 137 Cs concentration

  1. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  2. Trends in Social Science: The Impact of Computational and Simulative Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario; Cecconi, Federico

    This paper discusses current progress in the computational social sciences. Specifically, it examines the following questions: Are the computational social sciences exhibiting positive or negative developments? What are the roles of agent-based models and simulation (ABM), network analysis, and other "computational" methods within this dynamic? (Conte, The necessity of intelligent agents in social simulation, Advances in Complex Systems, 3(01n04), 19-38, 2000; Conte 2010; Macy, Annual Review of Sociology, 143-166, 2002). Are there objective indicators of scientific growth that can be applied to different scientific areas, allowing for comparison among them? In this paper, some answers to these questions are presented and discussed. In particular, comparisons among different disciplines in the social and computational sciences are shown, taking into account their respective growth trends in the number of publication citations over the last few decades (culled from Google Scholar). After a short discussion of the methodology adopted, results of keyword-based queries are presented, unveiling some unexpected local impacts of simulation on the takeoff of traditionally poorly productive disciplines.

  3. On the use of a regression model for trend estimates from ground-based atmospheric observations in the Southern hemisphere

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bencherif, H

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The present reports on the use of a multi-regression model adapted at Reunion University for temperature and ozone trend estimates. Depending on the location of the observing site, the studied geophysical signal is broken down in form of a sum...

  4. On the duality between long-run relations and common trends in the I(1) versus I(2) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1994-01-01

    Long-run relations and common trends are discussed in terms of the multivariate cointegration model given in the autoregressive and the moving average form. The basic results needed for the analysis of I(1) and 1(2)processes are reviewed and the results applied to Danish monetary data. The test...

  5. Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, C.

    2014-01-01

    This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

  6. Modeling trend of the immune system in HIV positive people treated with antiretroviral drugs, using Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Jambarsang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: After primary infection, the number of CD4 T-cells decreases with disease progress. The patient’s immunological status could inform by The CD4 T-cell counts over the time. The main purpose of this study is to assess the trend of CD4 cell count in HIV+ patient that received Antiretroviral Therapy (ART by using a multistate Markov model to estimate transition intensities and transition probabilities among various states. Methods: A total of 122 HIV+ patients were included in this cohort study who are undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy treatment in the Iran AIDS center in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran that inter during March 1995 to January 2005 and then fallow up to October 2014. All adults with at least two follow-up visits in addition to their pre-ART treatment were considered to be eligible for inclusion in the study. Continuous-time Markov processes are used to describe the evolution of a disease over different states. The mean sojourn time for each state was estimated by multi state Markov model. Results: Sample included 22 (18% female with a mean age of 43.32 (standard deviation 8.33 years and 100 (82% male with a mean age of 45.28 (standard deviation 8.34 year. Age was divided in to two categories, 40 years old and lower than that 66 (54.1 patents and persons older than 40 years old 56 (45.9 patents. A total of 122 patients were included. 29 patients died during follow-up. One year transition probability for staying in state 1 of CD4 cell count was 51%. This probability for six year was 33%. The mean sojourn time for sate 4 was 21 month. The hazard ratio of transition from state 3 to state 4 was 4.4 in men related to women. Conclusion: The use of antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV infected persons reduce viral replication and increase in CD4 T lymphocyte count, and delay the progression of disease. This paper is shown the progression of this trend.

  7. Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005

  8. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  9. Interpretation of GIA and ice-sheet mass trends over Antarctica using GRACE and ICESat data as a constraint to GIA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Keiko; Fukuda, Yoichi; Doi, Koichiro

    2011-11-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) have provided data sets covering observations over a period of more than 6 years since their respective launches. In this study, we used the GRACE mass change trend obtained by version 2 of CNES/GRGS solutions and the ICEsat elevation change trend from October 4, 2003, to March 21, 2008, to assess whether currently used glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models agree with the data sets. For six selected areas over West Antarctica, the mass trends for the surface ice sheet, which were obtained by subtracting the four GIA model trends (ICE-5G, IJ05, ANT5 and ANT6) from the estimated GRACE mass trend, were compared with the ICESat trends in order to assess whether these two trends are consistent within the uncertainty of the ice column density. The results show that the mass trend predicted by IJ05 GIA model is the most preferable to explain surface mass trends over some of these areas. The result is consistent with Riva et al. (2009); their estimated GIA trend from GRACE and ICESat data is very similar with IJ05 model.

  10. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Yeh

    Full Text Available Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA incidence.We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS. Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58% of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%. With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%. Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and

  11. Structure functions of the nucleon in a covariant scalar spectator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusaka, K.

    1997-01-01

    Nucleon structure functions, as measured in deep-inelastic lepton scattering, are studied within a covariant scalar diquark spectator model. Regarding the nucleon as an approximate two-body bound state of a quark and diquark, the Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) for the bound state vertex function is solved in the ladder approximation. The valence quark distribution is discussed in terms of the solutions of the BSE. 3 refs., 6 figs

  12. Mismatch between observed and modeled trends in dissolved upper-ocean oxygen over the last 50 yr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Stramma

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 yr. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 yr, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is –0.066 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO2-induced climate change. However, the pattern correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 yr. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO2-induced enhancement of the C : N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.027 to –0.047 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for climatological wind forcing, with a much larger range of –0.083 to +0.027 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for different initializations of sensitivity runs with reanalysis wind forcing. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to

  13. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  14. EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i anthropogenic emissions, (ii chemical boundary conditions, and (iii meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models. The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology, (iv a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model

  15. Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, V. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

  16. Illicit trafficking of radiological and nuclear materials: modeling and analysis of trafficking trends and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    York, David L.; Love, Tracia L.; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2005-01-01

    Concerns over the illicit trafficking of radiological and nuclear materials were focused originally on the lack of security and accountability of such material throughout the former Soviet states. This is primarily attributed to the frequency of events that have occurred involving the theft and trafficking of critical material components that could be used to construct a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) or even a rudimentary nuclear device. However, with the continued expansion of nuclear technology and the deployment of a global nuclear fuel cycle these materials have become increasingly prevalent, affording a more diverse inventory of dangerous materials and dual-use items. To further complicate the matter, the list of nuclear consumers has grown to include: (1) Nation-states that have gone beyond the IAEA agreed framework and additional protocols concerning multiple nuclear fuel cycles and processes that reuse the fuel through reprocessing to exploit technologies previously confined to the more industrialized world; (2) Terrorist organizations seeking to acquire nuclear and radiological material due to the potential devastation and psychological effect of their use; (3) Organized crime, which has discovered a lucrative market in trafficking of illicit material to international actors and/or countries; and (4) Amateur smugglers trying to feed their families in a post-Soviet era. An initial look at trafficking trends of this type seems scattered and erratic, localized primarily to a select group of countries. This is not necessarily the case. The success with which other contraband has been smuggled throughout the world suggests that nuclear trafficking may be carried out with relative ease along the same routes by the same criminals or criminal organizations. Because of the inordinately high threat posed by terrorist or extremist groups acquiring the ingredients for unconventional weapons, it is necessary that illicit trafficking of these materials be better

  17. Use of hierarchical models to analyze European trends in congenital anomaly prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavadino, Alana; Prieto-Merino, David; Addor, Marie-Claude

    2016-01-01

    that combine information from several subgroups simultaneously would enhance current surveillance methods using data collected by EUROCAT, a European network of population-based congenital anomaly registries. METHODS: Ten-year trends (2003 to 2012) in 18 EUROCAT registries over 11 countries were analyzed...

  18. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  19. TRENDS [Transport and Retention of Nuclides in Dominant Sequences]: A code for modeling iodine behavior in containment during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, C.F.; Beahm, E.C.; Kress, T.S.; Daish, S.R.; Shockley, W.E.

    1989-01-01

    The ultimate aim of a description of iodine behavior in severe LWR accidents is a time-dependent accounting of iodine species released into containment and to the environment. Factors involved in the behavior of iodine can be conveniently divided into four general categories: (1) initial release into containment, (2) interaction of iodine species in containment not directly involving water pools, (3) interaction of iodine species in, or with, water pools, and (4) interaction with special systems such as ice condensers or gas treatment systems. To fill the large gaps in knowledge and to provide a means for assaying the iodine source term, this program has proceeded along two paths: (1) Experimental studies of the chemical behavior of iodine under containment conditions. (2) Development of TRENDS (Transport and Retention of Nuclides in Dominant Sequences), a computer code for modeling the behavior of iodine in containment and its release from containment. The main body of this report consists of a description of TRENDS. These two parts to the program are complementary in that models within TRENDS use data that were produced in the experimental program; therefore, these models are supported by experimental evidence that was obtained under conditions expected in severe accidents. 7 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. Modeling the Trend of Credit Card Usage Behavior for Different Age Groups Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Nai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit card holders from different age groups have different usage behaviors, so deeply investigating the credit card usage condition and properly modeling the usage trend of all customers in different age groups from time series data is meaningful for financial institutions as well as banks. Until now, related research in trend analysis of credit card usage has mostly been focused on specific group of people, such as the behavioral tendencies of the elderly or college students, or certain behaviors, such as the increasing number of cards owned and the rise in personal card debt or bankruptcy, in which the only analysis methods employed are simply enumerating or classifying raw data; thus, there is a lack of support in specific mathematical models based on usage behavioral time series data. Considering that few systematic modeling methods have been introduced, in this paper, a novel usage trend analysis method for credit card holders in different age groups based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA has been proposed, using the time series data from the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC. The decomposition and reconstruction process in the method is proposed. The results show that the credit card usage frequency falls down from the age of 26 to the lowest point at around the age of 58 and then begins to increase again. At last, future work is discussed.

  1. Analisis Tingkat Kognitif Uji Kompetensi pada Buku Sekolah Elektronik (BSE Matematika SMP/MTs Kelas VII Kurikulum 2013 Berdasarkan Taksonomi Bloom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Yunita Susanti

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Buku teks pelajaran berperan penting dan strategis dalam upaya meningkatkan mutu pendidikan dasar dan menengah. Buku teks dilengkapi dengan soal-soal latihan yang belum terklasifikasi tingkat kognitifnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat kognitif soal uji kompetensi beserta persentase masing-masing tingkat kognitif soal uji kompetensi pada BSE Matematika SMP Kelas VII kurikulum 2013 semester 1 maupun semester 2. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian deskriptif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan bahwa soal uji kompetensi BSE Matematika semester 1 mencakup 9 variasi soal dari 24 variasi soal menurut tingkat kognitif Revisi Taksonomi Bloom. Dari 166 pertanyaan, terdapat 6.6% tingkat C2-faktual; 17% tingkat C2-konseptual; 22% tingkat C2-prosedural; 3% tingkat C3-faktual; 6.6% tingkat C3-konseptual; 28% tingkat C3-prosedural; 1.8% tingkat C4-konseptual; 14% tingkat C4-prosedural; 0.6% tingkat C6-konseptual; dan 0% pertanyaan tingkat yang lainnya. Sedangkan pada BSE Matematika semester 2 mencakup 11 variasi soal. Dari 170 pertanyaan terdapat 0.6% tingkat C1-faktual; 0.6% tingkat C1-konseptual; 2.9% tingkat C2-faktual; 15% tingkat C2-konseptual; 15% tingkat C2-prosedural; 8.2% tingkat C3-konseptual; 30% tingkat C3-prosedural; 4.7% tingkat C4-konseptual; 5.3% tingkat C4-prosedural; 14% tingkat C5-konseptual; 4.1% tingkat C6 konseptual; dan 0% tingkat yang lain.Textbooks have an important and strategic role in improving the quality of primary and secondary education. Textbook comes with practice questions are not yet classified the cognitive level. The aims of this study are determining the level of cognitive matter competency test along with the percentage of each level of cognitive matter competency test on BSE Class VII SMP Math curriculum 2013 1st half and 2nd semester. Type of research is descriptive research with a qualitative approach. It can be concluded that about half of the competency

  2. Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N

    2011-04-01

    Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance

  3. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, R. A.; Lock, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated in the da...... ¿ short sea or deep-sea shipping. Key Words: Air Pollution, Maritime Transport, Air Pollutant Emissions......This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated...... encountered since the statistical data collection was not undertaken with a view to this purpose are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission results per port and vessel type, to aggregate results for different types of movements...

  4. Model thermohaline trends in the Mediterranean Sea during the last years: a change with respect to the last decades?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Navarro, F Javier; Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Temperature and salinity outputs from ECCO (years 93-09) and GLORYS (years 03-09) models have been used to compute the thermohaline and steric sea level trends in the surface (0-150 m), intermediate (150 m-600 m), and deep (600 m-bottom) layers of the Mediterranean Sea. Some changes with respect to the second half of the 20th century have been observed: the cooling of the upper waters of the entire eastern basin since 1950 seems to have vanished; the warming of WMDW historically reported for the second half of the last century could have reversed, although there is no agreement between both models at this point (trends of different sign are predicted); the salinification of WMDW reported for the previous decades is not observed in the south-westernmost area in the period 93-09, and a clear change from positive to negative in the steric sea level trend with respect to the period 93-05 is detected due to the sharp decreasing steric sea level of years 02-06.

  5. Understanding Catalytic Activity Trends for NO Decomposition and CO Oxidation using Density Functional Theory and Microkinetic Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falsig, Hanne

    towards rationalizing trends in catalytic activity of transition metal catalysts for NO decomposition by combining microkinetic modelling with density functional theory calculations. We establish the full potential energy diagram for the direct NO decomposition reaction over stepped transition...... and Pt are the best direct NO decomposition catalysts among the 3d, 4d, and 5d metals. We analyze the NO decomposition reaction in terms of the Sabatier analysis and a Sabatier–Gibbs-type analysis and obtain an activity trend in agreement with experimental results. We show specifically why the key...... problem in using transition metal surfaces to catalyze direct NO decomposition is their significant relative overbinding of atomic oxygen compared to atomic nitrogen. We calculate adsorption and transition state energies for the full CO oxidation reaction pathway by the use of DFT for a number...

  6. Discrepancies in the Climatology and Trends of Cloud Cover in Global and Regional Climate Models for the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Calbó, Josep; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Tan, Elcin

    2017-11-01

    The present study aims at comparing total cloud cover (TCC) as simulated by regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX project with the same variable as simulated by the driving global climate models (GCM), which are part of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. The comparison is performed for the Mediterranean region, and for the 1971-2005 period, when results from the "historical" scenario can also be compared with two data sets of ground-based cloud observations. We work with 14 modeling results (resolution, 0.11° × 0.11°), which are a combination of five GCMs and five RCMs. In general, RCMs improve only very slightly the climatic estimation of TCC when compared with observations. Indeed, not all RCMs behave the same, and some indicators (monthly evolution of the relative bias) show an enhancement, while other indices (overall mean bias and annual range difference) improve only very slightly with respect to GCMs. Changes in the estimate of TCC in summer might be the most relevant value added by RCMs, as these should describe in a more proper way several mesoscale processes, which play a more relevant role in summer. Noticeably, RCMs are unable to capture the observed decadal trend in TCC. Thus, TCC simulated by RCMs is almost stable, in contradiction with observations and GCMs, which both show statistically significant decreasing trends in the Mediterranean area. This result is somewhat unsatisfactory, as if RCMs cannot reproduce past trends in TCC, their skill in projecting TCC into the future may be questioned.

  7. A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurgens, Bryant; Böhlke, John Karl; Kauffman, Leon J.; Belitz, Kenneth; Esser, Bradley K.

    2016-01-01

    A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFC-113, and 14C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

  8. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  9. Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

  10. Congruency within rural social networks as an indicator of interpersonal influence on risk judgments: the great stir caused by BSE in a village in northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmkuhl, Markus J

    2008-10-01

    In the following survey, congruency within a sample of 150 rural social networks ascertained by comparing independently gathered data is used as an indicator of interpersonal influence concerning BSE-related current knowledge and consumption habits. Our findings suggest that friends, relatives and acquaintances mutually orientated each other about what was worth knowing about BSE. Concerning the behavioral dimension of risk judgments, our findings indicate that social networks obtained within the village explored have activated collective resistance against fear. This is explained by the character of the risk source. Positive attitudes towards conventional farming obviously contributed to the social identity of villagers. The devaluation of conventional farming as a source of societal threat by the mass media touched on an integral part of the self-definitions of villagers and activated resistance within their social networks. It is argued that a central point in explaining the role of interpersonal influence in risk judgments is not only the dimension of risk judgments but the character of the risk source. If attitudes concerning a risk source contribute positively to one's identity, the devaluation of the risk source by mass media coverage may enhance the probability of collective resistance against fear.

  11. The interpretation of disease phenotypes to identify TSE strains in mice: characterisation of BSE using PrPSc distribution patterns in the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corda, Erica; Beck, Katy E; Sallis, Rosemary E; Vickery, Christopher M; Denyer, Margaret; Webb, Paul R; Bellworthy, Susan J; Spencer, Yvonne I; Simmons, Marion M; Spiropoulos, John

    2012-12-17

    In individual animals affected by transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, different disease phenotypes can be identified which are attributed to different strains of the agent. In the absence of reliable technology to fully characterise the agent, classification of disease phenotype has been used as a strain typing tool which can be applied in any host. This approach uses standardised data on biological parameters, established for a single host, to allow comparison of different prion sources. Traditionally prion strain characterisation in wild type mice is based on incubation periods and lesion profiles after the stabilisation of the agent into the new host which requires serial passages. Such analysis can take many years, due to prolonged incubation periods. The current study demonstrates that the PrPSc patterns produced by one serial passage in wild type mice of bovine or ovine BSE were consistent, stable and showed minimal and predictable differences from mouse-stabilised reference strains. This biological property makes PrPSc deposition pattern mapping a powerful tool in the identification and definition of TSE strains on primary isolation, making the process of characterisation faster and cheaper than a serial passage protocol. It can be applied to individual mice and therefore it is better suited to identify strain diversity within single inocula in case of co-infections or identify strains in cases where insufficient mice succumb to disease for robust lesion profiles to be constructed. The detailed description presented in this study provides a reference document for identifying BSE in wild type mice.

  12. Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Prevalence Data in Eastern Cape, South Africa, Using a Hybrid Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeboye Azeez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Tuberculosis (TB is a deadly infectious disease caused by Mycobacteria tuberculosis. Tuberculosis as a chronic and highly infectious disease is prevalent in almost every part of the globe. More than 95% of TB mortality occurs in low/middle income countries. In 2014, approximately 10 million people were diagnosed with active TB and two million died from the disease. In this study, our aim is to compare the predictive powers of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR models of TB incidence and analyse its seasonality in South Africa. Methods: TB incidence cases data from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the Eastern Cape Health facility report of the electronic Tuberculosis Register (ERT.Net. A SARIMA model and a combined model of SARIMA model and a neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR model were used in analysing and predicting the TB data from 2010 to 2015. Simulation performance parameters of mean square error (MSE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute error (MAE, mean percent error (MPE, mean absolute scaled error (MASE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE were applied to assess the better performance of prediction between the models. Results: Though practically, both models could predict TB incidence, the combined model displayed better performance. For the combined model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC, second-order AIC (AICc and Bayesian information criterion (BIC are 288.56, 308.31 and 299.09 respectively, which were lower than the SARIMA model with corresponding values of 329.02, 327.20 and 341.99, respectively. The seasonality trend of TB incidence was forecast to have a slightly increased seasonal TB incidence trend from the SARIMA-NNAR model compared to the single model. Conclusions: The combined model indicated a better TB incidence forecasting with a lower AICc. The model also indicates the need for resolute

  13. Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Al-Salem

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

  14. A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

    2018-01-01

    Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

  15. Modeling of rainfall events and trends through multifractal analysis on the Ebro River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valencia, Jose Luis; María Tarquis, Ana; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; Villeta, María; María Gascó, Jose

    2015-04-01

    Water supplies in the Ebro River Basin present high seasonal fluctuations, with extreme rainfall events during autumn and spring, and demands are increasingly stressed during summer. At the same time, repeated anomalous annual fluctuations in recent decades have become a serious concern for regional hydrology, agriculture and several related industries in the region. In fact, it has had a devastating impact, both socially and economically. In addition it has resulted in debate over the changing seasonal patterns of rainfall and the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events. The aim of this work is to evaluate these challenges on the Ebro River Basin.For this purpose, 132 complete and regular spatial rainfall daily datasets (from 1931 to 2009) were analyzed. Each dataset corresponds to a grid of 25 km x 25 km and belongs to the area studied. First, classical statistical tests were applied to the series at annual scale to check the randomness and trends. No trends where found. Then, we analyzed the change in the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin. We have used universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behavior in time (α index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution (γs). Daily rainfall series were subdivided (1931-1975 and 1965-2009) to study the difference between the two periods in these three UM parameters, in an attempt to relate them to geographical coordinates and relative positions in the river basin. The variations observed in C1 and α in some areas of the Ebro River Basin indicate that a precipitation regime change has begun in the last few decades, and therefore, this change should be considered in terms of its potential effects on the social and economical development of the region. This confirms some postulates drawn by conservative scientists who reject a catastrophic

  16. Skill of Operational Aerosol Forecast Models in Predicting Aerosol Events and Trends of the Eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Kaku, K.; Xian, P.; Benedetti, A.; Colarco, P. R.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Holben, B. N.; Rubin, J.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Zhang, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global aerosol forecast models are now commonplace, providing predictions of dust storms, smoke event transport and even anthropogenic pollution events out to 6 days or even seasonally. These models often serve dual purposes providing analysis or reanalysis products for earth science applications as well as aerosol forecast guidance. The NASA Studies of Emissions & Atmospheric Composition, Clouds & Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) coupled with the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Multi Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME) provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate the nature and skill of global aerosol forecast models to simulate or predict the nature of a relatively "simple" anthropogenic pollution regime of the eastern United States. Generally, models are able to capture the relative distribution of haze events two days out, and reanalysis versions easily capture decadal trends. However, aerosol physics, chemistry, and meteorology uncertainties lead to the conclusion that these forecasts and reanalyses should be interpreted along the same semi-quantitative lines as most forecasters interpret meteorological model forecasts and analyses. Here, we systematically explore how differences in model configuration and data assimilation methodologies translate into differences in final model analysis and forecasts in a series of events observed during SEAC4RS and then extrapolate findings to the problem of decadal monitoring. We also explore the impact and ramifications of transient events such as biomass burning and dust impact forecast product interpretation.

  17. Research trends on Big Data in Marketing: A text mining and topic modeling based literature analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Amado

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the research interest on Big Data in Marketing, we present a research literature analysis based on a text mining semi-automated approach with the goal of identifying the main trends in this domain. In particular, the analysis focuses on relevant terms and topics related with five dimensions: Big Data, Marketing, Geographic location of authors’ affiliation (countries and continents, Products, and Sectors. A total of 1560 articles published from 2010 to 2015 were scrutinized. The findings revealed that research is bipartite between technological and research domains, with Big Data publications not clearly aligning cutting edge techniques toward Marketing benefits. Also, few inter-continental co-authored publications were found. Moreover, findings show that research in Big Data applications to Marketing is still in an embryonic stage, thus making it essential to develop more direct efforts toward business for Big Data to thrive in the Marketing arena.

  18. Content Analysis of Research Trends in Instructional Design Models: 1999-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göksu, Idris; Özcan, Kursat Volkan; Çakir, Recep; Göktas, Yuksel

    2017-01-01

    This study examines studies on instructional design models by applying content analysis. It covers 113 papers published in 44 international Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) and Science Citation Index (SCI) journals. Studies on instructional design models are explored in terms of journal of publication, preferred model, country where the study…

  19. Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh Sathian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

  20. Observed and modeled seasonal trends in dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in a mining-impacted stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Barbara A; Ranville, James F; Ross, Philippe E

    2008-06-01

    North Fork Clear Creek (NFCC) in Colorado, an acid-mine drainage (AMD) impacted stream, was chosen to examine the distribution of dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in the water column, with respect to seasonal hydrologic controls. NFCC is a high-gradient stream with discharge directly related to snowmelt and strong seasonal storms. Additionally, conditions in the stream cause rapid precipitation of large amounts of hydrous iron oxides (HFO) that sequester metals. Because AMD-impacted systems are complex, geochemical modeling may assist with predictions and/or confirmations of processes occurring in these environments. This research used Visual-MINTEQ to determine if field data collected over a two and one-half year study would be well represented by modeling with a currently existing model, while limiting the number of processes modeled and without modifications to the existing model's parameters. Observed distributions between dissolved and particulate phases in the water column varied greatly among the metals, with average dissolved fractions being >90% for Mn, approximately 75% for Zn, approximately 30% for Cu, and seasonal trend was observed for the metals predominantly in the dissolved phase (Mn and Zn), with increasing concentrations during base-flow conditions and decreasing concentrations during spring-runoff. This trend was less obvious for Cu and Fe. Within hydrologic seasons, storm events significantly influenced in-stream metals concentrations. The most simplified modeling, using solely sorption to HFO, gave predicted percentage particulate Cu results for most samples to within a factor of two of the measured values, but modeling data were biased toward over-prediction. About one-half of the percentage particulate Zn data comparisons fell within a factor of two, with the remaining data being under-predicted. Slightly more complex modeling, which included dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a solution phase ligand, significantly reduced the

  1. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    H. Sadeghi; A. Akhondali; meisam haddad; M. Golabi

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municip...

  2. Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee-Carter mortality model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callot, Laurent; Haldrup, Niels; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

    2015-01-01

    The Lee and Carter (1992) model assumes that the deterministic and stochastic time series dynamics load with identical weights when describing the development of age-specific mortality rates. Effectively this means that the main characteristics of the model simplify to a random walk model with age...... mortality data. We find empirical evidence that this feature of the Lee–Carter model overly restricts the system dynamics and we suggest to separate the deterministic and stochastic time series components at the benefit of improved fit and forecasting performance. In fact, we find that the classical Lee...

  3. Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee-Carter mortality model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callot, Laurent; Haldrup, Niels; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

    The Lee and Carter (1992) model assumes that the deterministic and stochastic time series dynamics loads with identical weights when describing the development of age specific mortality rates. Effectively this means that the main characteristics of the model simplifies to a random walk model...... that characterizes mortality data. We find empirical evidence that this feature of the Lee-Carter model overly restricts the system dynamics and we suggest to separate the deterministic and stochastic time series components at the benefit of improved fit and forecasting performance. In fact, we find...

  4. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, Jonathon; Hejduk, Matt; Stamey, James

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

  5. Do Climate Models Simulate the Right Sea Ice Trends for the Wrong Reasons?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, E. J.; Eisenman, I.

    2016-02-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, predict a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover. A number of recent studies have attributed this discrepancy in each hemisphere to natural variability. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find that after accounting for biases in the level of global warming in each simulation, the possibility that natural variability alone could explain the difference between models and observations becomes exceedingly small. This suggests instead that there is a systematic bias in the climate models or possibly the observations.

  6. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  7. Current computational modelling trends in craniomandibular biomechanics and their clinical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, A G

    2011-03-01

    Computational models of interactions in the craniomandibular apparatus are used with increasing frequency to study biomechanics in normal and abnormal masticatory systems. Methods and assumptions in these models can be difficult to assess by those unfamiliar with current practices in this field; health professionals are often faced with evaluating the appropriateness, validity and significance of models which are perhaps more familiar to the engineering community. This selective review offers a foundation for assessing the strength and implications of a craniomandibular modelling study. It explores different models used in general science and engineering and focuses on current best practices in biomechanics. The problem of validation is considered at some length, because this is not always fully realisable in living subjects. Rigid-body, finite element and combined approaches are discussed, with examples of their application to basic and clinically relevant problems. Some advanced software platforms currently available for modelling craniomandibular systems are mentioned. Recent studies of the face, masticatory muscles, tongue, craniomandibular skeleton, temporomandibular joint, dentition and dental implants are reviewed, and the significance of non-linear and non-isotropic material properties is emphasised. The unique challenges in clinical application are discussed, and the review concludes by posing some questions which one might reasonably expect to find answered in plausible modelling studies of the masticatory apparatus. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Competence Model and Modern Trends of Development of the Russian Institute of Technical Customer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishlanova Marina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Article considers modern maintenance and development of the management actor by the investment-construction projects of the technical customer. Urgent problems of the formation of Institute of the technical customer establishment are allocated. Elementary competence model is presented: based competences of technical customer, model of the primary competence, example of the operational level of the model. Analysis of the development of the Institute of the technical customer was performed: compliance with current realities of investment-construction activities, improvement of contractual relations, compliance with international standards, state participation, creation of the single technical customer. Necessity of development of competence models for the urgent justification of professional standards is assessed. The possibility of modeling of the competencies and functions of technical customer in approach to the FIDIC-model was revealed. Possibility of usage of the competence model of the technical customer on the stage of building in terms of public-private partnership. Results show the direction for further researches.

  9. Illicit trafficking of radiological and nuclear materials: Modeling and analysis of trafficking trends and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    York, D.; Rochau, G.; Cleary, V.

    2007-01-01

    Concerns over the illicit trafficking of radiological and nuclear materials were focused originally on the lack of security and accountability of such material throughout the former Soviet states. This is primarily attributed to the frequency of events that have occurred involving theft and trafficking of critical material components that could be used to construct a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) or a rudimentary, improvised nuclear device (IND). However, with the continued expansion of nuclear technology and the deployment of a global nuclear fuel cycle these materials will continue to become increasingly prevalent, affording a more diverse inventory of dangerous materials and dual-use items. To further complicate the matter, the list of nuclear consumers has grown to include: 1) Nation-states that have gone beyond the IAEA agreed framework and additional protocols concerning multiple nuclear fuel cycles and processes that reuse the fuel through reprocessing to exploit technologies previously confined to the more industrialized world. 2) Terrorist organizations seeking to acquire nuclear and radiological material due to the potential devastation and psychological effect of their use. 3) Organized crime, which has discovered a lucrative market in trafficking of illicit material to international actors and/or countries. 4) Amateur smugglers trying to feed their families in a post-Soviet era. An initial look at trafficking trends of this type seems scattered and erratic, localized primarily to a select group of countries. This is not necessarily the case. The success with which other contraband has been smuggled throughout the world suggests that nuclear trafficking may be carried out with relative ease along the same routes by the same criminals or criminal organizations. (author)

  10. Ups and Downs: Modeling the Visual Evolution of Fashion Trends with One-Class Collaborative Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    He, Ruining; McAuley, Julian

    2016-01-01

    Building a successful recommender system depends on understanding both the dimensions of people's preferences as well as their dynamics. In certain domains, such as fashion, modeling such preferences can be incredibly difficult, due to the need to simultaneously model the visual appearance of products as well as their evolution over time. The subtle semantics and non-linear dynamics of fashion evolution raise unique challenges especially considering the sparsity and large scale of the underly...

  11. Emerging trends in evolving networks: Recent behaviour dominant and non-dominant model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Khushnood; Shang, Mingsheng; Luo, Xin; Abbasi, Alireza

    2017-10-01

    Novel phenomenon receives similar attention as popular one. Therefore predicting novelty is as important as popularity. Emergence is the side effect of competition and ageing in evolving systems. Recent behaviour or recent link gain in networks plays an important role in emergence. We exploited this wisdom and came up with two models considering different scenarios and systems. Where recent behaviour dominates over total behaviour (total link gain) in the first one, and recent behaviour is as important as total behaviour for future link gain in the second one. It supposes that random walker walks on a network and can jump to any node, the probability of jumping or making a connection to other node is based on which node is recently more active or receiving more links. In our assumption, the random walker can also jump to the node which is already popular but recently not popular. We are able to predict emerging nodes which are generally suppressed under preferential attachment effect. To show the performance of our model we have conducted experiments on four real data sets namely, MovieLens, Netflix, Facebook and Arxiv High Energy Physics paper citation. For testing our model we used four information retrieval indices namely Precision, Novelty, Area Under Receiving Operating Characteristic (AUC) and Kendal's rank correlation coefficient. We have used four benchmark models for validating our proposed models. Although our model does not perform better in all the cases but, it has theoretical significance in working better for recent behaviour dominated systems.

  12. Modelling level, trend and geographical variations in stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Samson B; Fakolade, Richard; Anyanti, Jennifer; Ekweremadu, Bright; Ladipo, Olaronke; Ankomah, Augustine

    2011-01-01

    People living with HIV and AIDS (PLHA) often face stigma and discrimination. Stigma is a powerful tool for social control and PLHA are to varying degrees stigmatised against. Consequences of stigma and discrimination against PLHA may result in low turn-out for HIV counselling and testing, identity crises, isolation, loneliness, low self-esteem and lack of interest in containing the disease. To achieve the millennium development goal on HIV reduction, efforts should be targeted at measuring impact of HIV preventive interventions. In this paper, effort was made to explore geographical variations in addition to level and trend of accepting attitude towards PLHA using 2003 - 2007 population-based household survey data. Inferences are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, while model selection was based on Deviance Information Criteria. Findings revealed significant positive trend and spatial variations on level of accepting attitude towards PLHA. Level of exposure to HIV prevention interventions and perceptions about social support received on HIV are significantly associated with accepting attitude towards PLHA. Findings provide policy makers with tools to discern states where prevention efforts on HIV-related stigma and discrimination should be intensified. This in turn, can enhance an effective utilization of scarce resources that is paramount in developing countries.

  13. Modeling long-term yield trends of Miscanthusxgiganteus using experimental data from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesur, Claire; Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène; Makowski, David

    2013-01-01

    . giganteus is known to have an establishment phase during which annual yields increased as a function of crop age, followed by a ceiling phase, the duration of which is unknown. We built a database including 16 European long-term experiments (i) to describe the yield evolution during the establishment...... and the ceiling phases and (ii) to determine whether M. giganteus ceiling phase is followed by a decline phase where yields decrease across years. Data were analyzed through comparisons between a set of statistical growth models. The model that best fitted the experimental data included a decline phase...

  14. An HIV epidemic model based on viral load dynamics: value in assessing empirical trends in HIV virulence and community viral load.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua T Herbeck

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence.

  15. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  16. Trend to equilibrium for a reaction-diffusion system modelling reversible enzyme reaction

    OpenAIRE

    Elias, Jan

    2016-01-01

    20 pages; A spatio-temporal evolution of chemicals appearing in a reversible enzyme reaction and modelled by a four component reaction-diffusion system with the reaction terms obtained by the law of mass action is considered. The large time behaviour of the system is studied by means of entropy methods.

  17. Trend to Equilibrium for a Reaction-Diffusion System Modelling Reversible Enzyme Reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliaš, Ján

    2018-01-01

    A spatio-temporal evolution of chemicals appearing in a reversible enzyme reaction and modelled by a four-component reaction-diffusion system with the reaction terms obtained by the law of mass action is considered. The large time behaviour of the system is studied by means of entropy methods.

  18. Using a dynamic model to assess trends in land degradation by water erosion in Spanish Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Javier; Francisco Lavado-Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne; Pulido-Fernández, Manuel; Martínez Valderrama, Jaime

    2014-05-01

    This work presents a model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesas and montados of the Iberian Peninsula, that constitute valuable rangelands in the area. A multidisciplinary dynamic model was built including weather, biophysical and economic variables that reflect the main causes and processes affecting sheet erosion on hillsides of the study areas. The model has two main and two derived purposes: Purpose 1: Assessing the risk of degradation that a land-use system is running. Derived purpose 1: Early warning about land-use systems that are particularly threatened by degradation. Purpose 2: Assessing the degree to which different factors would hasten degradation if they changed from the typical values they show at present. Derived purpose 2: Evaluating the role of human activities on degradation. Model variables and parameters have been calibrated for a typical open woodland rangeland (dehesa or montado) defined along 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms and distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The model is the basis for a straightforward assessment methodology which is summarized by the three following points: i) The risk of losing a given amount of soil before a given number of years was specifically estimated as the percentage of 1000 simulations where such a loss occurs, being the simulations run under randomly-generated scenarios of rainfall amount and intensity and meat and supplemental feed market prices; ii) Statistics about the length of time that a given amount of soil takes to be lost were calculated over 1000 stochastic simulations run until year 1000, thereby ensuring that such amount of soil has been lost in all of the simulations, i.e. the total risk is 100%; iii) Exogenous factors potentially affecting degradation, mainly climatic and economic, were ranked in order of importance by means of a sensitivity analysis. Particularly remarkable in terms of model performance is the major role

  19. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  20. Knowledge-driven computational modeling in Alzheimer's disease research: Current state and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geerts, Hugo; Hofmann-Apitius, Martin; Anastasio, Thomas J

    2017-11-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) follow a slowly progressing dysfunctional trajectory, with a large presymptomatic component and many comorbidities. Using preclinical models and large-scale omics studies ranging from genetics to imaging, a large number of processes that might be involved in AD pathology at different stages and levels have been identified. The sheer number of putative hypotheses makes it almost impossible to estimate their contribution to the clinical outcome and to develop a comprehensive view on the pathological processes driving the clinical phenotype. Traditionally, bioinformatics approaches have provided correlations and associations between processes and phenotypes. Focusing on causality, a new breed of advanced and more quantitative modeling approaches that use formalized domain expertise offer new opportunities to integrate these different modalities and outline possible paths toward new therapeutic interventions. This article reviews three different computational approaches and their possible complementarities. Process algebras, implemented using declarative programming languages such as Maude, facilitate simulation and analysis of complicated biological processes on a comprehensive but coarse-grained level. A model-driven Integration of Data and Knowledge, based on the OpenBEL platform and using reverse causative reasoning and network jump analysis, can generate mechanistic knowledge and a new, mechanism-based taxonomy of disease. Finally, Quantitative Systems Pharmacology is based on formalized implementation of domain expertise in a more fine-grained, mechanism-driven, quantitative, and predictive humanized computer model. We propose a strategy to combine the strengths of these individual approaches for developing powerful modeling methodologies that can provide actionable knowledge for rational development of preventive and therapeutic interventions. Development of these computational approaches is likely to

  1. Proposing a Hybrid Model Based on Robson's Classification for Better Impact on Trends of Cesarean Deliveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans, Punit; Rohatgi, Renu

    2017-06-01

    To construct a hybrid model classification for cesarean section (CS) deliveries based on the woman-characteristics (Robson's classification with additional layers of indications for CS, keeping in view low-resource settings available in India). This is a cross-sectional study conducted at Nalanda Medical College, Patna. All the women delivered from January 2016 to May 2016 in the labor ward were included. Results obtained were compared with the values obtained for India, from secondary analysis of WHO multi-country survey (2010-2011) by Joshua Vogel and colleagues' study published in "The Lancet Global Health." The three classifications (indication-based, Robson's and hybrid model) applied for categorization of the cesarean deliveries from the same sample of data and a semiqualitative evaluations done, considering the main characteristics, strengths and weaknesses of each classification system. The total number of women delivered during study period was 1462, out of which CS deliveries were 471. Overall, CS rate calculated for NMCH, hospital in this specified period, was 32.21% ( p  = 0.001). Hybrid model scored 23/23, and scores of Robson classification and indication-based classification were 21/23 and 10/23, respectively. Single-study centre and referral bias are the limitations of the study. Given the flexibility of the classifications, we constructed a hybrid model based on the woman-characteristics system with additional layers of other classification. Indication-based classification answers why, Robson classification answers on whom, while through our hybrid model we get to know why and on whom cesarean deliveries are being performed.

  2. Trends in Modelling, Simulation and Design of Water Hydraulic Systems – Motion Control and Open-Ended Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conrad, Finn

    2006-01-01

    is that the components operate with pure water from the tap without additives of any kind. Hence water hydraulics takes the benefit of pure water as fluid being environmentally friendly, easy to clean sanitary design, non-toxic, non-flammable, inexpensive, readily available and easily disposable. The low-pressure tap......, dedicated pumps and accessories running with sea-water as fluid are available. A unique solution is to use reverse osmosis to generate drinking water from sea-water, and furthermore for several off-shore applications. Furthermore, tap water hydraulic components of the Nessie® family and examples of measured......The paper presents and discusses a R&D-view on trends in development and best practise in modelling, simulation and design of both low-pressure and high-pressure tap water hydraulic components and systems for motion control as well as open-ended solutions various industrial applications. The focus...

  3. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  4. New trends on soft computing models in industrial and environmental applications

    OpenAIRE

    Corchado Rodríguez, Emilio; Abraham, Ajith P.; Snášel, Václav

    2017-01-01

    The twelve papers included in this special issue represent a selection of extended contributions presented at the Sixth International Conference on Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications, held in Salamanca, Spain, 6–8th April, 2011. Papers were selected on the basis of fundamental ideas and concepts rather than the direct usage of well-established techniques. This special issue is then aimed at practitioners, researchers and post-graduate students, who are engaged ...

  5. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  6. Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.; hide

    2011-01-01

    The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed

  7. Process-based morphodynamic modeling of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale: Controls on estuarine evolution and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan, Hua Long; Ding, Ping Xing; Wang, Zheng Bing; Ge, Jian Zhong

    2017-08-01

    Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002 - 2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yr- 1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system

  8. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  9. Modelling of seasonal and long-term trends in lake salinity in southwestern Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2012-12-15

    In southwestern Victoria a large number of lakes are scattered across the volcanic plains; many have problems with increasing salinity. To identify the hydrologic components behind this problem, three lakes, Burrumbeet, Linlithgow and Buninjon, were selected for detailed water and salt budget modelling using monthly values of rainfall, evaporation, surface inflow and outflow, and groundwater inflow and outflow (using the new modified difference method developed in this study). On average, rainfall begins to exceed evaporation with the onset of winter rainfall in May, so lake levels rise and lake salinities decline. The modelled lakes have become more saline over the last decade, a time of drought with below average rainfall, and all eventually dried out, their salinities rising to very high levels as they shallowed. Lake Burrumbeet is generally much less saline than Lakes Linlithgow and Buninjon, because it has substantial groundwater outflow, probably due to leakage through one or more volcanic necks. This limits the amount of time the lake water is subject to evaporation, and also allows significant salt export. The other lakes do not leak. The modelling indicates that when the lakes dry out, salt is lost from the lake-beds, probably due to wind deflation of salt crusts and leakage into the underlying groundwater. The removal of salt during drying-out phases resets the salinity of the lakes, limiting their ability to become more saline with time. Drying-out phases may therefore be essential in preventing the increased salinisation of lakes and wetland environments across the volcanic plains. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Trends in biomedical engineering: focus on Patient Specific Modeling and Life Support Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubini, Gabriele; Ambrosi, Davide; Bagnoli, Paola; Boschetti, Federica; Caiani, Enrico G; Chiastra, Claudio; Conti, Carlo A; Corsini, Chiara; Costantino, Maria Laura; D'Angelo, Carlo; Formaggia, Luca; Fumero, Roberto; Gastaldi, Dario; Migliavacca, Francesco; Morlacchi, Stefano; Nobile, Fabio; Pennati, Giancarlo; Petrini, Lorenza; Quarteroni, Alfio; Redaelli, Alberto; Stevanella, Marco; Veneziani, Alessandro; Vergara, Christian; Votta, Emiliano; Wu, Wei; Zunino, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    Over the last twenty years major advancements have taken place in the design of medical devices and personalized therapies. They have paralleled the impressive evolution of three-dimensional, non invasive, medical imaging techniques and have been continuously fuelled by increasing computing power and the emergence of novel and sophisticated software tools. This paper aims to showcase a number of major contributions to the advancements of modeling of surgical and interventional procedures and to the design of life support systems. The selected examples will span from pediatric cardiac surgery procedures to valve and ventricle repair techniques, from stent design and endovascular procedures to life support systems and innovative ventilation techniques.

  11. Modeling the kinetics of cobalt Fischer-Tropsch catalyst deactivation trends through an innovative modified Weibull distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorashadizadeh, Mahdi; Atashi, Hossein

    2017-07-26

    Since the increase in clean energy demand is driven by environmental concerns, energy management is an ever-lasting issue globally. Among the different scenarios for energy manufacturing, the catalytic route through the famous process named Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis provides beneficial consequences including pollution reduction and economic efficiency, among others. In this regard, catalyst stability must be taken into account as a crucial performance parameter, especially in the expensive cobalt-catalyzed CO hydrogenation processes. As catalyst deactivation seems to be inevitable in catalytic processes, deactivation issues such as the extent, failure rate, or reactivation significantly influence the exploration, development, design, and operation of commercial processes. Accordingly, the deactivation trend of a cobalt-based catalyst was modeled via an innovative Weibull distribution base, which presents a significant advance over the existing macroscopic deactivation models. Being employed to obtain informative equations, the model parameters provide valuable information about the catalyst lifetime, which can be used as a useful predictive tool for industrial control purposes.

  12. Trends and Issues in Fuzzy Control and Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Stephen

    1996-01-01

    Everyday experience in building and repairing things around the home have taught us the importance of using the right tool for the right job. Although we tend to think of a 'job' in broad terms, such as 'build a bookcase,' we understand well that the 'right job' associated with each 'right tool' is typically a narrowly bounded subtask, such as 'tighten the screws.' Unfortunately, we often lose sight of this principle when solving engineering problems; we treat a broadly defined problem, such as controlling or modeling a system, as a narrow one that has a single 'right tool' (e.g., linear analysis, fuzzy logic, neural network). We need to recognize that a typical real-world problem contains a number of different sub-problems, and that a truly optimal solution (the best combination of cost, performance and feature) is obtained by applying the right tool to the right sub-problem. Here I share some of my perspectives on what constitutes the 'right job' for fuzzy control and describe recent advances in neuro-fuzzy modeling to illustrate and to motivate the synergistic use of different tools.

  13. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E.; Olivier, Jos G.J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-01-01

    generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends

  14. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  15. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, Robert; Lock, Grahm

    2005-01-01

    changes from findings reported in Methodologies for Estimating air pollutant Emissions from Transport (MEET). The database operates on statistical data provided by Eurostat, which describe vessel and freight movements from and towards EU 15 major ports. Data are at port to Maritime Coastal Area (MCA......) level, so a bottom-up approach is used. A port to MCA distance database has also been constructed for the purpose of the study. This was the first attempt to use Eurostat maritime statistics for emission modelling; and the problems encountered, since the statistical data collection was not undertaken...... with a view to this purpose, are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission calculations for bulk carriers entering the port of Helsinki, as an example of the database operation, and aggregate results for different types...

  16. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  17. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  18. Integrated water assessment and modelling: A bibliometric analysis of trends in the water resource sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zare, Fateme; Elsawah, Sondoss; Iwanaga, Takuya; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Pierce, Suzanne A.

    2017-09-01

    There are substantial challenges facing humanity in the water and related sectors and purposeful integration of the disciplines, connected sectors and interest groups is now perceived as essential to address them. This article describes and uses bibliometric analysis techniques to provide quantitative insights into the general landscape of Integrated Water Resource Assessment and Modelling (IWAM) research over the last 45 years. Keywords, terms in titles, abstracts and the full texts are used to distinguish the 13,239 IWAM articles in journals and other non-grey literature. We identify the major journals publishing IWAM research, influential authors through citation counts, as well as the distribution and strength of source countries. Fruitfully, we find that the growth in numbers of such publications has continued to accelerate, and attention to both the biophysical and socioeconomic aspects has also been growing. On the other hand, our analysis strongly indicates that the former continue to dominate, partly by embracing integration with other biophysical sectors related to water - environment, groundwater, ecology, climate change and agriculture. In the social sciences the integration is occurring predominantly through economics, with the others, including law, policy and stakeholder participation, much diminished in comparison. We find there has been increasing attention to management and decision support systems, but a much weaker focus on uncertainty, a pervasive concern whose criticalities must be identified and managed for improving decision making. It would seem that interdisciplinary science still has a long way to go before crucial integration with the non-economic social sciences and uncertainty considerations are achieved more routinely.

  19. Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosneron-Dupin, F.; Reer, B.; Heslinga, G.; Straeter, O.; Gerdes, V.; Saliou, G.; Ullwer, W.

    1997-01-01

    As an informal working group of researchers from France, Germany and The Netherlands created in 1993, the EARTH association is investigating significant subjects in the field of human reliability analysis (HRA). Our initial review of cases from nuclear operating experience showed that decision-based unrequired actions (DUA) contribute to risk significantly on the one hand. On the other hand, our evaluation of current HRA methods showed that these methods do not cover such actions adequately. Especially, practice-oriented guidelines for their predictive identification are lacking. We assumed that a basic cause for such difficulties was that these methods actually use a limited representation of the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) paradigm. We proposed a human-centered model, which better highlights the active role of the operators and the importance of their culture, attitudes and goals. This orientation was encouraged by our review of current HRA research activities. We therefore decided to envisage progress by identifying cognitive tendencies in the context of operating and simulator experience. For this purpose, advanced approaches for retrospective event analysis were discussed. Some orientations for improvements were proposed. By analyzing cases, various cognitive tendencies were identified, together with useful information about their context. Some of them match psychological findings already published in the literature, some of them are not covered adequately by the literature that we reviewed. Finally, this exploratory study shows that contextual and case-illustrated findings about cognitive tendencies provide useful help for the predictive identification of DUA in HRA. More research should be carried out to complement our findings and elaborate more detailed and systematic guidelines for using them in HRA studies

  20. Exploring Spatiotemporal Trends in Commercial Fishing Effort of an Abalone Fishing Zone: A GIS-Based Hotspot Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Ali Jalali

    Full Text Available Assessing patterns of fisheries activity at a scale related to resource exploitation has received particular attention in recent times. However, acquiring data about the distribution and spatiotemporal allocation of catch and fishing effort in small scale benthic fisheries remains challenging. Here, we used GIS-based spatio-statistical models to investigate the footprint of commercial diving events on blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra stocks along the south-west coast of Victoria, Australia from 2008 to 2011. Using abalone catch data matched with GPS location we found catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE was not uniformly spatially and temporally distributed across the study area. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal clusters of CPUE (with distance thresholds of 100's of meters among years, indicating the presence of CPUE hotspots focused on specific reefs. Cumulative hotspot maps indicated that certain reef complexes were consistently targeted across years but with varying intensity, however often a relatively small proportion of the full reef extent was targeted. Integrating CPUE with remotely-sensed light detection and ranging (LiDAR derived bathymetry data using generalized additive mixed model corroborated that fishing pressure primarily coincided with shallow, rugose and complex components of reef structures. This study demonstrates that a geospatial approach is efficient in detecting patterns and trends in commercial fishing effort and its association with seafloor characteristics.

  1. Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

  2. Estimating Trends and Variation of Net Biome Productivity in India for 1980-2012 Using a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahlot, Shilpa; Shu, Shijie; Jain, Atul K.; Baidya Roy, Somnath

    2017-11-01

    In this paper we explore the trend in net biome productivity (NBP) over India for the period 1980-2012 and quantify the impact of different environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), land use and land cover change, climate, and nitrogen deposition on carbon fluxes using a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model. Results show that terrestrial ecosystems of India have been a carbon sink for this period. Driven by a strong CO2 fertilization effect, magnitude of NBP increased from 27.17 TgC/yr in the 1980s to 34.39 TgC/yr in the 1990s but decreased to 23.70 TgC/yr in the 2000s due to change in climate. Adoption of forest conservation, management, and reforestation policies in the past decade has promoted carbon sequestration in the ecosystems, but this effect has been offset by loss of carbon from ecosystems due to rising temperatures and decrease in precipitation.

  3. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series...... regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark....... Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average...

  4. Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Julie Rowland

    2015-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

  5. Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi-Abhari, Sara; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Bandosz, Piotr; Shipley, Martin J; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Kivimäki, Mika; Steptoe, Andrew; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Brunner, Eric J

    2017-07-05

    Objective  To forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease. Design  Modelling study. Setting  General adult population of England and Wales. Participants  The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) is a representative panel study with six waves of data across 2002-13. Men and women aged 50 or more years, selected randomly, and their cohabiting partners were recruited to the first wave of ELSA (2002-03). 11392 adults participated (response rate 67%). To maintain representativeness, refreshment participants were recruited to the study at subsequent waves. The total analytical sample constituted 17 906 people. Constant objective criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain dementia cases at each wave. Main outcome measures  To estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35 or more years through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. It enables prediction of dementia prevalence while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease. Results  In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men and 17.0/1000 person years in women aged 50 or more in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, we estimated there were approximately 767 000 (95% uncertainty

  6. Constraining spatial patterns and secular trends of springtime phenology with contrasting models based on plant phenology gardens and carbon dioxide flux networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M. A.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2007-12-01

    Shifts in the timing and distribution of spring phenological events are a central feature of global change research. Most evidence, especially for multi-decade records, indicates a shift towards earlier spring but with frequent differences in the magnitude and location of trends. Here, using two phenology models, one based on first bloom dates of clonal honeysuckle and lilac and one based on initiation of net carbon uptake at eddy covariance flux towers, we upscaled observations of spring arrival to the conterminous US at 1km resolution. The models shared similar and coherent spatial and temporal patterns at large regional scales but differed at smaller scales, likely attributable to: use of cloned versus extant species; chilling requirements; model complexity; and biome characteristics. Our results constrain climatically driven shifts in 1981 to 2003 spring arrival for the conterminous US to between -2.7 and 0.1 day/23 years. Estimated trend differences were minor in the biome of model development (deciduous broad leaf forest) but diverged strongly in woody evergreen and grassland areas. Based on comparisons with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a limited independent ground dataset, predictions from both models were consistent with observations of satellite-based greenness and measured leaf expansion. First bloom trends, which were mostly statistically insignificant, were also consistent with NDVI trends while the net carbon uptake model predicted extensive trends towards earlier spring in the western US that were not observed in the NDVI data, showing the implication of model application outside the biome range of initial development.

  7. How well do environmental archives of atmospheric mercury deposition in the Arctic reproduce rates and trends depicted by atmospheric models and measurements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsite, M E; Outridge, P M; Christensen, J H; Dastoor, A; Muir, D; Travnikov, O; Wilson, S

    2013-05-01

    This review compares the reconstruction of atmospheric Hg deposition rates and historical trends over recent decades in the Arctic, inferred from Hg profiles in natural archives such as lake and marine sediments, peat bogs and glacial firn (permanent snowpack), against those predicted by three state-of-the-art atmospheric models based on global Hg emission inventories from 1990 onwards. Model veracity was first tested against atmospheric Hg measurements. Most of the natural archive and atmospheric data came from the Canadian-Greenland sectors of the Arctic, whereas spatial coverage was poor in other regions. In general, for the Canadian-Greenland Arctic, models provided good agreement with atmospheric gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) concentrations and trends measured instrumentally. However, there are few instrumented deposition data with which to test the model estimates of Hg deposition, and these data suggest models over-estimated deposition fluxes under Arctic conditions. Reconstructed GEM data from glacial firn on Greenland Summit showed the best agreement with the known decline in global Hg emissions after about 1980, and were corroborated by archived aerosol filter data from Resolute, Nunavut. The relatively stable or slowly declining firn and model GEM trends after 1990 were also corroborated by real-time instrument measurements at Alert, Nunavut, after 1995. However, Hg fluxes and trends in northern Canadian lake sediments and a southern Greenland peat bog did not exhibit good agreement with model predictions of atmospheric deposition since 1990, the Greenland firn GEM record, direct GEM measurements, or trends in global emissions since 1980. Various explanations are proposed to account for these discrepancies between atmosphere and archives, including problems with the accuracy of archive chronologies, climate-driven changes in Hg transfer rates from air to catchments, waters and subsequently into sediments, and post-depositional diagenesis in peat bogs

  8. Modeling and managing urban water demand through smart meters: Benefits and challenges from current research and emerging trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Piga, D.; Rizzoli, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Urban population growth, climate and land use change are expected to boost residential water demand in urban contexts in the next decades. In such a context, developing suitable demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future water demands, pursue water savings, and reduce the costs for water utilities. Yet, the effectiveness of water demand management strategies (WDMS) relies on our understanding of water consumers' behavior, their consumption habits, and the water use drivers. While low spatial and temporal resolution water consumption data, as traditionally gathered for billing purposes, hardly support this understanding, the advent of high-resolution, smart metering technologies allowed for quasi real-time monitoring water consumption at the single household level. This, in turn, is advancing our ability in characterizing consumers' behavior, modeling, and designing user-oriented residential water demand management strategies. Several water smart metering programs have been rolled-out in the last two decades worldwide, addressing one or more of the following water demand management phases: (i) data gathering, (ii) water end-uses characterization, (iii) user modeling, (iv) design and implementation of personalized WDMS. Moreover, the number of research studies in this domain is quickly increasing and big economic investments are currently being devoted worldwide to smart metering programs. With this work, we contribute the first comprehensive review of more than 100 experiences in the field of residential water demand modeling and management, and we propose a general framework for their classification. We revise consolidated practices, identify emerging trends and highlight the challenges and opportunities for future developments given by the use of smart meters advancing residential water demand management. Our analysis of the status quo of smart urban water demand management research and market constitutes a structured collection of information

  9. A model of proteostatic energy cost and its use in analysis of proteome trends and sequence evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasper P Kepp

    Full Text Available A model of proteome-associated chemical energetic costs of cells is derived from protein-turnover kinetics and protein folding. Minimization of the proteostatic maintenance cost can explain a range of trends of proteomes and combines both protein function, stability, size, proteostatic cost, temperature, resource availability, and turnover rates in one simple framework. We then explore the ansatz that the chemical energy remaining after proteostatic maintenance is available for reproduction (or cell division and thus, proportional to organism fitness. Selection for lower proteostatic costs is then shown to be significant vs. typical effective population sizes of yeast. The model explains and quantifies evolutionary conservation of highly abundant proteins as arising both from functional mutations and from changes in other properties such as stability, cost, or turnover rates. We show that typical hypomorphic mutations can be selected against due to increased cost of compensatory protein expression (both in the mutated gene and in related genes, i.e. epistasis rather than compromised function itself, although this compensation depends on the protein's importance. Such mutations exhibit larger selective disadvantage in abundant, large, synthetically costly, and/or short-lived proteins. Selection against increased turnover costs of less stable proteins rather than misfolding toxicity per se can explain equilibrium protein stability distributions, in agreement with recent findings in E. coli. The proteostatic selection pressure is stronger at low metabolic rates (i.e. scarce environments and in hot habitats, explaining proteome adaptations towards rough environments as a question of energy. The model may also explain several trade-offs observed in protein evolution and suggests how protein properties can coevolve to maintain low proteostatic cost.

  10. Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI) with an engineering-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vinay S; Brandt, Adam R

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI) for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE). The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico), Forties (U.K.), Midway-Sunset (U.S.), Prudhoe Bay (U.S.), and Wilmington (U.S.). Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER) and external energy ratio (EER) are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1) oil-only and (2) all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy). All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1) reduced petroleum production and (2) increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs). The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases.

  11. Trends in participation rates for wildlife-associated outdoor recreation activities by age and race/ethnicity: implications for cohort-component projection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Dwyer; Allan Marsinko

    1998-01-01

    Cohort-component projection models have been used to explore the implications of increased aging and growth of racial/ethnic minority groups on number of participants in outdoor recreation activities in the years ahead. Projections usually assume that participation rates by age and race/ethnicity remain constant over time. This study looks at trends in activity...

  12. Driving forces behind the increasing cardiovascular treatment intensity.A dynamic epidemiologic model of trends in Danish cardiovascular drug utilization.

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten

    -state (untreated, treated, dead) semi-Markov model to analyse the dynamics of drug use. Transitions were from untreated to treated (incidence), the reverse (discontinuation), and from either untreated or treated to dead. Stratified by sex and age categories, prevalence trends of "growth driving" drug categories...

  13. Use of the D-R model to define trends in the emergence of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: To assess the efficacy of the D-R model for defining trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli. Methods: Actual data related to the manifestation of Ceftazidime-resistant E.coli spanning years 1996-2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet (CN...

  14. Explaining trends in Scottish coronary heart disease mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACTSEC model: retrospective analysis using routine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotchkiss, Joel W; Davies, Carolyn A; Dundas, Ruth; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Jhund, Pardeep S; Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; O'Flaherty, Martin; Critchley, Julia; Leyland, Alastair H; Capewell, Simon

    2014-02-06

    To quantify the contributions of prevention and treatment to the trends in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Retrospective analysis using IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model, to apportion the recent decline in coronary heart disease mortality to changes in major cardiovascular risk factors and to increases in more than 40 treatments in nine non-overlapping groups of patients. Scotland. All adults aged 25 years or over, stratified by sex, age group, and fifths of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Deaths prevented or postponed. 5770 fewer deaths from coronary heart disease occurred in 2010 than would be expected if the 2000 mortality rates had persisted (8042 rather than 13,813). This reflected a 43% fall in coronary heart disease mortality rates (from 262 to 148 deaths per 100,000). Improved treatments accounted for approximately 43% (95% confidence interval 33% to 61%) of the fall in mortality, and this benefit was evenly distributed across deprivation fifths. Notable treatment contributions came from primary prevention for hypercholesterolaemia (13%), secondary prevention drugs (11%), and chronic angina treatments (7%). Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 39% (28% to 49%) of the fall in mortality (44% in the most deprived fifth compared with only 36% in the most affluent fifth). Reductions in systolic blood pressure contributed more than one third (37%) of the decline in mortality, with no socioeconomic patterning. Smaller contributions came from falls in total cholesterol (9%), smoking (4%), and inactivity (2%). However, increases in obesity and diabetes offset some of these benefits, potentially increasing mortality by 4% and 8% respectively. Diabetes showed strong socioeconomic patterning (12% increase in the most deprived fifth compared with 5% for the most affluent fifth). Increases in medical treatments accounted for almost half of the large recent decline in mortality due to coronary heart disease in

  15. Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, David B.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Staley, Michael J.

    1982-01-01

    Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

  16. Seismic response trends evaluation via long term monitoring and finite element model updating of an RC building including soil-structure interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, F.; Omenzetter, P.

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a study on the seismic response trends evaluation and finite element model updating of a reinforced concrete building monitored for a period of more than two years. The three storey reinforced concrete building is instrumented with five tri-axial accelerometers and a free-field tri-axial accelerometer. The time domain N4SID system identification technique was used to obtain the frequencies and damping ratios considering flexible base models taking into account the soil-structure-interaction (SSI) using 50 earthquakes. Trends of variation of seismic response were developed by correlating the peak response acceleration at the roof level with identified frequencies and damping ratios. A general trend of decreasing frequencies was observed with increased level of shaking. To simulate the behavior of the building, a three dimensional finite element model (FEM) was developed. To incorporate real in-situ conditions, soil underneath the foundation and around the building was modeled using spring elements and non-structural components (claddings and partitions) were also included. The developed FEM was then calibrated using a sensitivity based model updating technique taking into account soil flexibility and non-structural components as updating parameters. It was concluded from the investigation that knowledge of the variation of seismic response of buildings is necessary to better understand their behavior during earthquakes, and also that the participation of soil and non-structural components is significant towards the seismic response of the building and these should be considered in models to simulate the real behavior.

  17. Roles of wind stress and thermodynamic forcing in recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean SST: An ocean-sea ice model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusahara, Kazuya; Williams, Guy D.; Massom, Robert; Reid, Phillip; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2017-11-01

    In contrast to a strong decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, overall Antarctic sea ice extent has modestly increased since 1979. Several hypotheses have been proposed for the net Antarctic sea ice expansion, including atmosphere/ocean circulation and temperature changes, sea ice-atmospheric-ocean feedback, increased precipitation, and enhanced basal meltwater from ice shelves. Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period. However, the mechanisms responsible for the Antarctic sea ice expansion and the SST cooling trend remain poorly defined. Here, we conduct comprehensive sensitivity experiments using a coupled ocean-sea ice model with a steady-state ice shelf component in order to investigate the main drivers of recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and SST over the Southern Ocean. The results suggest that Antarctic sea ice expansion is mostly explained by trends in the thermodynamic surface forcing, notably cooling and drying and a reduction in longwave radiation. Similarly, thermodynamic forcing is found to be the main driver of the zonal SST cooling trend. While apparently less influential on sea ice extent and SST, wind stress plays a key role in sea ice motion, thickening coastal sea ice, and thinning and decreasing the concentration of ice in mid-pack regions of the Amundsen-eastern Ross seas and 65-95°E in winter-spring. Furthermore, the model suggests that ocean-ice shelf interaction does not significantly influence the observed trends in Antarctic sea ice coverage and Southern Ocean SST in recent decades.

  18. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    Full Text Available Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107% of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47% to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61% in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42% in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%; more so in deprived (37% than in affluent (25% areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%, smoking (3%, and physical activity (2%. Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%, particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70% of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%, chronic angina treatment (13%, and secondary prevention (11% made the largest medical contributions.The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However

  19. Analyzing projected changes and trends of temperature and precipitation in the southern USA from 16 downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lu; Hong, Yang; Hocker, James E.; Shafer, Mark A.; Carter, Lynne M.; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Bednarczyk, Christopher N.; Yong, Bin; Adhikari, Pradeep

    2012-08-01

    This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South.

  20. Effects of parental hypertension on longitudinal trends in blood pressure and plasma metabolic profile: mixed-effects model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsumata, Kaneto; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Ohnishi, Hirofumi; Akasaka, Hiroshi; Miura, Tetsuji

    2012-11-01

    The mechanism underlying the association of parental hypertension with cardiovascular events in offspring remains unclear. In this study, the effects of parental hypertension on longitudinal trends of blood pressure and metabolic parameters were examined by mixed-effects model analysis. From 1977 to 2006, 5198 subjects participated in the Tanno-Sobetsu Study, and we selected 2607 subjects (1095 men and 1512 women) for whom data on parental history of hypertension were available. In both men and women with and without parental hypertension, systolic blood pressure and fasting blood glucose levels consistently increased from the third to eighth decades of life, whereas diastolic blood pressure and serum triglyceride levels followed biphasic (inverted U shape) time courses during that period. However, the relationships between the parameters and age were significantly shifted upward (by ≈5.3 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure, 2.8 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure, 0.30 mmol/L in blood glucose, and 0.09 mmol/L in triglyceride) in the group with parental hypertension compared with those in the group without parental hypertension. Both paternal and maternal histories of hypertension were determinants of systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, and there was no significant interaction between the sides of parental history. There were no significant effects of parental hypertension on age-dependent or body mass index-dependent changes in serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. The present results indicate that parental hypertension has an age-independent impact on elevation of blood pressure, plasma glucose, and triglyceride levels, which may underlie the reported increase in cardiovascular events by family history of hypertension.

  1. Syndromic Surveillance Models Using Web Data: The Case of Influenza in Greece and Italy Using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, Loukas; García-Barriocanal, Elena; Sicilia, Miguel-Angel

    2017-11-20

    An extended discussion and research has been performed in recent years using data collected through search queries submitted via the Internet. It has been shown that the overall activity on the Internet is related to the number of cases of an infectious disease outbreak. The aim of the study was to define a similar correlation between data from Google Trends and data collected by the official authorities of Greece and Europe by examining the development and the spread of seasonal influenza in Greece and Italy. We used multiple regressions of the terms submitted in the Google search engine related to influenza for the period from 2011 to 2012 in Greece and Italy (sample data for 104 weeks for each country). We then used the autoregressive integrated moving average statistical model to determine the correlation between the Google search data and the real influenza cases confirmed by the aforementioned authorities. Two methods were used: (1) a flu score was created for the case of Greece and (2) comparison of data from a neighboring country of Greece, which is Italy. The results showed that there is a significant correlation that can help the prediction of the spread and the peak of the seasonal influenza using data from Google searches. The correlation for Greece for 2011 and 2012 was .909 and .831, respectively, and correlation for Italy for 2011 and 2012 was .979 and .933, respectively. The prediction of the peak was quite precise, providing a forecast before it arrives to population. We can create an Internet surveillance system based on Google searches to track influenza in Greece and Italy. ©Loukas Samaras, Elena García-Barriocanal, Miguel-Angel Sicilia. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 20.11.2017.

  2. Potential assessment of a neural network model with PCA/RBF approach for forecasting pollutant trends in Mong Kok urban air, Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, W.-Z.; Wang, W.-J.; Wang, X.-K.; Yan, S.-H.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2004-01-01

    The forecasting of air pollutant trends has received much attention in recent years. It is an important and popular topic in environmental science, as concerns have been raised about the health impacts caused by unacceptable ambient air pollutant levels. Of greatest concern are metropolitan cities like Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, respirable suspended particulates (RSP), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) are major air pollutants due to the dominant usage of diesel fuel by commercial vehicles and buses. Hence, the study of the influence and the trends relating to these pollutants is extremely significant to the public health and the image of the city. The use of neural network techniques to predict trends relating to air pollutants is regarded as a reliable and cost-effective method for the task of prediction. The works reported here involve developing an improved neural network model that combines both the principal component analysis technique and the radial basis function network and forecasts pollutant tendencies based on a recorded database. Compared with general neural network models, the proposed model features a more simple network architecture, a faster training speed, and a more satisfactory prediction performance. The improved model was evaluated with hourly time series of RSP, NO x and NO 2 concentrations monitored at the Mong Kok Roadside Gaseous Monitory Station in Hong Kong during the year 2000 and proved to be effective. The model developed is a potential tool for forecasting air quality parameters and is superior to traditional neural network methods

  3. Global Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Global Trends. Worldwide metro Ethernet equipment revenue hit $2.5 billion in 2002 (Infonetics Research). Projected to grow 134% to $5.9 billion by 2006 (24% CAGR). Worldwide metro Ethernet equipment ports hit 906,000 in 2002 (Infonetics Research). Will grow ...

  4. Environmental Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC.

    This document consists of data which highlight trends in all sectors relevant to environmental policy. These data are presented in the form of charts and maps contained in 13 sections under the following headings: people and the land; critical areas (wetlands, wild areas, parks, historic places, and risk zones); human settlements; transportation;…

  5. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  6. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  7. Decreasing DOC trends in soil solution along the hillslopes at two IM sites in southern Sweden--geochemical modeling of organic matter solubility during acidification recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfgren, Stefan; Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Bringmark, Lage

    2010-12-01

    Numerous studies report increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during the last two decades in boreal lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Recently, a hypothesis was presented on how various spatial and temporal factors affect the DOC dynamics. It was concluded that declining sulphur deposition and thereby increased DOC solubility, is the most important driver for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the DOC levels should increase both in the soil solution as well as in the surrounding surface waters as soil pH rises and the ionic strength declines due to the reduced input of SO(4)(2-) ions. In this project a geochemical model was set up to calculate the net humic charge and DOC solubility trends in soils during the period 1996-2007 at two integrated monitoring sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of acidification recovery. The Stockholm Humic Model was used to investigate whether the observed DOC solubility is related to the humic charge and to examine how pH and ionic strength influence it. Soil water data from recharge and discharge areas, covering both podzols and riparian soils, were used. The model exercise showed that the increased net charge following the pH increase was in many cases counteracted by a decreased ionic strength, which acted to decrease the net charge and hence the DOC solubility. Thus, the recovery from acidification does not necessarily have to generate increasing DOC trends in soil solution. Depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the trends might be positive, negative or indifferent. Due to the high hydraulic connectivity with the streams, the explanations to the DOC trends in surface waters should be searched for in discharge areas and peat lands. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E; Olivier, Jos G J; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1,287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg(0)) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg(2+)) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg(0), has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg(0) emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1°×0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The model can generally

  9. Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, A. R.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Schoeberl, M. R.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a

  10. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

    2009-01-01

    Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

  11. Empirical support for global integrated assessment modeling: Productivity trends and technological change in developing countries' agriculture and electric power sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.

    2000-04-01

    Integrated assessment (IA) modeling of climate policy is increasingly global in nature, with models incorporating regional disaggregation. The existing empirical basis for IA modeling, however, largely arises from research on industrialized economies. Given the growing importance of developing countries in determining long-term global energy and carbon emissions trends, filling this gap with improved statistical information on developing countries' energy and carbon-emissions characteristics is an important priority for enhancing IA modeling. Earlier research at LBNL on this topic has focused on assembling and analyzing statistical data on productivity trends and technological change in the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors of five developing countries, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea. The proposed work will extend this analysis to the agriculture and electric power sectors in India, South Korea, and two other developing countries. They will also examine the impact of alternative model specifications on estimates of productivity growth and technological change for each of the three sectors, and estimate the contribution of various capital inputs--imported vs. indigenous, rigid vs. malleable-- in contributing to productivity growth and technological change. The project has already produced a data resource on the manufacturing sector which is being shared with IA modelers. This will be extended to the agriculture and electric power sectors, which would also be made accessible to IA modeling groups seeking to enhance the empirical descriptions of developing country characteristics. The project will entail basic statistical and econometric analysis of productivity and energy trends in these developing country sectors, with parameter estimates also made available to modeling groups. The parameter estimates will be developed using alternative model specifications that could be directly utilized by the existing IAMs for the manufacturing

  12. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  13. Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

    2015-01-01

    For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

  14. Industry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This section discusses the US energy supply and demand situation including projections for energy use, the clean coal industry (constraints of regulation on investment in new technologies, technology trends, and current pollution control efficiency), opportunities in clean coal technology (Phase 2 requirements of Title 4 of the Clean Air Act, scrubber demand for lime and limestone, and demand for low sulfur coal), and the international market of clean coal technologies

  15. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  16. Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiko Ito

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP, we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO2, climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr−1. In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their

  17. Analysing the sustainability of the entities quoted on the B.S.E. using accounting sustainability measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentin Caloian

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to ensure a sustainable development of an entity, a sustainability accounting report, trustfulness and proper made is mandatory for financial users. As a fact, the entities have to reveal social and environment information in order to increase the creditworthiness in the activity they realized. The purpose of this research is to point out how the sustainability accounting report influences the financial performance of the companies, by quantifying the social and environment elements in a score variable. The analysis is done upon the societies that are listed on the first category of Bucharest Stock of Exchange and tries to identity the way through which sustainable development can be ensured. The results are based on a linear regression model and find a direct positive correlation between the score variable and the financial performance of the companies

  18. Use of the D-R model to define trends in the emergence of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Ding

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of the D-R model for defining trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli. METHODS: Actual data related to the manifestation of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli spanning years 1996-2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet. These data originated from 430 publications encompassing 1004 citations of resistance. The GM(1,1 and the novel D-R models were used to fit current data and from this, predict trends in the appearance of the drug-resistant phenotype. The results were evaluated by Relative Standard Error (RSE, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Mean Absolute Error (MAE. RESULTS: Results from the D-R model showed a rapid increase in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli in this region of the world. These results were considered accurate based upon the minor values calculated for RSE, MAD and MAE, and were equivalent to or better than those generated by the GM(1,1 model. CONCLUSION: The D-R model which was originally created to define trends in the transmission of swine viral diseases can be adapted to evaluating trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli. Using only a limited amount of data to initiate the study, our predictions closely mirrored the changes in drug resistance rates which showed a steady increase through 2005, a decrease between 2005 and 2008, and a dramatic inflection point and abrupt increase beginning in 2008. This is consistent with a resistance profile where changes in drug intervention temporarily delayed the upward trend in the appearance of the resistant phenotype; however, resistance quickly resumed its upward momentum in 2008 and this change was better predicted using the D-R model. Additional work is needed to determine if this pattern of "increase-control-increase" is indicative of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli or can be generally ascribed to bacteria acquiring resistance to drugs in the absence of alternative

  19. Trend analysis of runoff and sediment fluxes in the Upper Blue Nile basin: A combined analysis of statistical tests, physically-based models and landuse maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebremicael, T. G.; Mohamed, Y. A.; Betrie, G. D.; van der Zaag, P.; Teferi, E.

    2013-03-01

    SummaryThe landuse/cover changes in the Ethiopian highlands have significantly increased the variability of runoff and sediment fluxes of the Blue Nile River during the last few decades. The objectives of this study were (i) to understand the long-term variations of runoff and sediment fluxes using statistical models, (ii) to interpret and corroborate the statistical results using a physically-based hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and (iii) to validate the interpretation of SWAT results by assessing changes of landuse maps. Firstly, Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to test the trends of Blue Nile flow (1970-2009) and sediment load (1980-2009) at the outlet of the Upper Blue Nile basin at El Diem station. These tests showed statistically significant increasing trends of annual stream flow, wet season stream flow and sediment load at 5% confidence level. The dry season flow showed a significant decrease in the trend. However, during the same period the annual rainfall over the basin showed no significant trends. The results of the statistical tests were sensitive to the time domain. Secondly, the SWAT model was used to simulate the runoff and sediment fluxes in the early 1970s and at the end of the time series in 2000s in order to interpret the physical causes of the trends and corroborate the statistical results. A comparison of model parameter values between the 1970s and 2000s shows significant change, which could explain catchment response changes over the 28 years of record. Thirdly, a comparison of landuse maps of 1970s against 2000s shows conversion of vegetation cover into agriculture and grass lands over wide areas of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The combined results of the statistical tests, the SWAT model, and landuse change detection are consistent with the hypothesis that landuse change has caused a significant change of runoff and sediment load from the Upper Blue Nile during the last four decades. This is an important

  20. National implementation of the UNECE convention on long-range transboundary air pollution (effects). Pt. 1. Deposition loads: methods, modelling and mapping results, trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauger, Thomas [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Braunschweig (DE). Inst. of Agroecology (FAL-AOE); Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Navigation; Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Roesemann, Claus [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Braunschweig (DE). Inst. of Agroecology (FAL-AOE)] (and others)

    2008-09-15

    The report on the implementation of the UNECE convention on long-range transboundary air pollution Pt.1, deposition loads (methods, modeling and mapping results, trends) includes the following chapters: Introduction, deposition on air pollutants used for the input for critical loads in exceeding calculations, methods applied for mapping total deposition loads, mapping wet deposition, wet deposition mapping results, mapping dry deposition, dry deposition mapping results, cloud and fog mapping results, total deposition mapping results, modeling the air concentration of acidifying components and heavy metals, agricultural emissions of acidifying and eutrophying species.

  1. Evaluation of the Trends of Stomach Cancer Incidence in Districts of Iran from 2000-2010: Application of a Random Effects Markov Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zayeri, Farid; Mansouri, Anita; Sheidaei, Ali; Rahimzadeh, Shadi; Rezaei, Nazila; Modirian, Mitra; Khademioureh, Sara; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2016-01-01

    Stomach cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of death among cancers throughout the world. Therefore, stomach cancer outcomes can affect health systems at the national and international levels. Although stomach cancer mortality and incidence rates have decreased in developed countries, these indicators have a raising trend in East Asian developing countries, particularity in Iran. In this study, we aimed to determine the time trend of age-standardized rates of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran from 2000 to 2010. Cases of cancer were registered using a pathology-based system during 2000-2007 and with a population-based system since 2008 in Iran. In this study, we collected information about the incidence of stomach cancer during a 10 year period for 31 provinces and 376 districts, with a total of 49,917 cases. We employed two statistical approaches (a random effects and a random effects Markov model) for modeling the incidence of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran during the studied period. The random effects model showed that the incidence rate of stomach cancer among males and females had an increasing trend and it increased by 2.38 and 0.87 persons every year, respectively. However, after adjusting for previous responses, the random effects Markov model showed an increasing rate of 1.53 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. This study revealed that there are significant differences between different areas of Iran in terms of age-standardized incidence rates of stomach cancer. Our study suggests that a random effects Markov model can adjust for effects of previous. responses.

  2. Trends in Family Child Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neugebauer, Roger

    2011-01-01

    The author presents insights from various readers of "ExchangeEveryDay" regarding trends in the world of family child care. Kathleen Reticker of Acre Family Child Care in Lowell, Massachusetts thinks an increasing trend in Family Child Care is the pressure to emulate a Center, instead of seeing family child care as a different model. Over the…

  3. Long term modeling of the links between economics, technical progress and environment: Evolution of approaches and new trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.

    1992-10-01

    This paper examines the evolution of modeling on greenhouse as emissions. The paper briefly highlights the origins and early efforts to model greenhouse gas emissions, efforts subsequent to 1988, and the shape of the next generation of greenhouse gas emissions models. Particular emphasis is placed on the author's own contributions, including the Edmonds-Reilly Model and the second generation model

  4. Fertilizer trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donaldson, R.

    1992-12-31

    This fourteenth edition of Fertilizer Trends presents historical fertilizer market data to aid industry, government, and financial market analysis and planners in their study of fertilizer and agricultural market cycles, market planning, and investment decisions. A 27-year summary of the US fertilizer market is presented in graphic and tabular form. Production, use, and trade data are included for each plant nutrient and sulfur. Canadian statistics have been included because of the important role of the Canadian fertilizer industry in the US fertilizer market. World production and consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash are included because of the strong influence of world markets on the domestic market. Planted acreage and plant nutrient application rates for the major crops have been included to illustrate their effect on fertilizer use. Retail prices of the leading US fertilizer materials also are given.

  5. Modeling of US Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Seroprevalence by Age and Sexual Behavior Indicates an Increasing Trend of HPV Infection Following the Sexual Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryser, Marc D; Rositch, Anne; Gravitt, Patti E

    2017-09-01

    The United States has experienced an increase in the incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers that are not screen-detectable. It has been hypothesized, but not directly demonstrated, that this is due to increasing HPV prevalence in the unvaccinated population. Female self-reported numbers of lifetime sex partners and HPV serology from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to develop mathematical models of sexual partner acquisition and antibody dynamics. Modeled trends in sexual behaviors were compared to incidence data for cervical adenocarcinoma, oropharyngeal cancer, and anal cancer. The age-specific HPV seroprevalence data were best explained by a partner acquisition model that explicitly accounted for cohort-dependent changes in sexual behavior. Estimates of the mean time to loss of natural antibodies varied by model, ranging from 49 to 145 years. Inferred trends in sexual behavior over the past decades paralleled the increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers in the United States. The findings suggest that lower HPV seroprevalence in older US women primarily reflects cohort-specific differences in sexual behaviors, and is only marginally attributable to immune waning with age. Our results emphasize the importance of continuing surveillance of sexual behaviors, alongside vaccine status, to predict future disease burden. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. On the duality between long-run relations and common trends in the I(1) versus I(2) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1994-01-01

    procedures reveal that nominal money stock is essentially I(2). Long-run price homogeneity is supported by the data and imposed on the system. It is found that the bond rate is weakly exogenous for the long-run parameters and therefore act as a driving trend. Using the nonstationarity property of the data......, "excess money" is estimated and its effect on the other determinants of the system is investigated. In particular, it is found that "excess money" has no effect on price inflation...

  7. Trend and seasonality of community-acquired Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance and its dynamic relationship with antimicrobial use assessed by ARIMA models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asencio Egea, María Ángeles; Huertas Vaquero, María; Carranza González, Rafael; Herráez Carrera, Óscar; Redondo González, Olga; Arias Arias, Ángel

    2017-12-04

    We studied the trend and seasonality of community-acquired Escherichia coli resistance and quantified its correlation with the previous use of certain antibiotics. A time series study of resistant community-acquired E. coli isolates and their association with antibiotic use was conducted in a Primary Health Care Area from 2008 to 2012. A Poisson regression model was constructed to estimate the trend and seasonality of E. coli resistance. A significant increasing trend in mean E. coli resistance to cephalosporins, aminoglycosides and nitrofurantoin was observed. Seasonal resistance to ciprofloxacin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid was significantly higher in autumn-winter. There was a delay of 7, 10 and 12 months between the use of cotrimoxazole (P<0.038), fosfomycin (P<0.024) and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (P<0.015), respectively, and the occurrence of E. coli resistance. An average delay of 10 months between the previous use of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, cotrimoxazole and fosfomycin and the appearance of resistant community-acquired E. coli strains was detected. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  8. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-11-10

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

  9. The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, R.; Gutierrez-Sanchez, R.; Nafidi, A.

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO 2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas . We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate

  10. Educational differences in cigarette smoking among adult population in Estonia, 1990-2010: does the trend fit the model of tobacco epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärna, Kersti; Pürjer, Mari-Liis; Ringmets, Inge; Tekkel, Mare

    2014-07-10

    In developed countries, smoking spreads through society like an epidemic in which adults from higher socioeconomic groups are the first to adopt and earlier to quit smoking, and in which exists a lag in adoption of smoking between men and women. The objective of this study was to describe trends in daily and occasional smoking, to investigate association between smoking status and education, and to examine if the associations in 1990-2010 in Estonia fit the pattern predicted by the model of tobacco epidemic. The study was based on a 20-64-year-old subsample (n = 18740) of nationally representative postal cross-sectional surveys conducted every second year in Estonia during 1990-2010. Cigarette smoking and education were examined. χ2 test for trend was used to determine daily and occasional smoking trends over study years. Multinomial logistic regression model was used to test educational differences in daily and occasional smoking for every study year. Adjusted relative risk ratios (RRRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. In 1990-2010, daily smoking varied largely between genders showing decreasing trend among men, but not among women. In 2010, one third of men and one fifth of women were daily smokers. Daily smoking was not clearly associated with education among men in 1990-1994 and among women in 1990-2000. Men revealed inverse relationship between daily smoking and education since 1996, but women since 2002. In 2010, compared to men and women with higher education, relative risk ratio of daily smoking was 2.92 (95% CI = 2.01-4.25) among men and 2.29 (95% CI = 1.65-3.17) among women with secondary education, but 4.98 (95% CI 3.12-7.94) among men and 6.62 (95% CI = 4.07-10.76) among women with basic education.In 1990-2010, occasional smoking was stable and similar (varying between 7-10%) among men and women, no association with education was found. Daily smoking patterns in Estonia fit the model of tobacco epidemic in developed countries

  11. Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Brouwer

    Full Text Available Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012. MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.

  12. Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Andrew F; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Meza, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity) squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC) epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012). MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.

  13. Characteristics of broadband slow earthquakes explained by a Brownian model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, S.; Takeo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Brownian slow earthquake (BSE) model (Ide, 2008; 2010) is a stochastic model for the temporal change of seismic moment release by slow earthquakes, which can be considered as a broadband phenomena including tectonic tremors, low frequency earthquakes, and very low frequency (VLF) earthquakes in the seismological frequency range, and slow slip events in geodetic range. Although the concept of broadband slow earthquake may not have been widely accepted, most of recent observations are consistent with this concept. Then, we review the characteristics of slow earthquakes and how they are explained by BSE model. In BSE model, the characteristic size of slow earthquake source is represented by a random variable, changed by a Gaussian fluctuation added at every time step. The model also includes a time constant, which divides the model behavior into short- and long-time regimes. In nature, the time constant corresponds to the spatial limit of tremor/SSE zone. In the long-time regime, the seismic moment rate is constant, which explains the moment-duration scaling law (Ide et al., 2007). For a shorter duration, the moment rate increases with size, as often observed for VLF earthquakes (Ide et al., 2008). The ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment is constant, as shown in Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico (Maury et al., 2017). The moment rate spectrum has a section of -1 slope, limited by two frequencies corresponding to the above time constant and the time increment of the stochastic process. Such broadband spectra have been observed for slow earthquakes near the trench axis (Kaneko et al., 2017). This spectrum also explains why we can obtain VLF signals by stacking broadband seismograms relative to tremor occurrence (e.g., Takeo et al., 2010; Ide and Yabe, 2014). The fluctuation in BSE model can be non-Gaussian, as far as the variance is finite, as supported by the central limit theorem. Recent observations suggest that tremors and LFEs are spatially characteristic

  14. Effects of Rock Type and Geologic Process on the Structure and Evolution of Nano, Meso and Micro-Scale Porosity: A (U)SANS, SEM/BSE Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anovitz, L.; Wang, H.; Cole, D. R.; Rother, G.

    2012-12-01

    The microstructure and evolution of porosity in time and space play a critical role in many geologic processes, including the migration and retention of water, gas and hydrocarbons, the evolution of hydrothermal systems, weathering, diagenesis and metamorphism, as well as technological processes such as CO2 sequestration, shale gas and secondary oil recovery. The size, distribution and connectivity of these confined geometries collectively dictate how fluids migrate into and through these micro- and nanoenvironments, wet and react with mineral surfaces. (Ultra)small-angle neutron scattering and autocorrelations derived from SEM/BSE imaging provide a method of quantifying pore structures in a statistically significant manner from the nanometer to the centimeter scale. Data from this approach suggests that there are significant primary and evolutionary differences between the multiscale pore structures of carbonate and clastic rocks. Our work on the St. Peter sandstone shows total porosity correlates with changes in pores structure including pore size ratios, surface fractal dimensions, and lacunarity. There is no evidence of mass-fractal scattering and while previous scattering data from sandstones suggest scattering is dominated by surface fractal behavior over many orders of magnitude, our data show both fractal and pseudo-fractals. Larger pores fill at a faster rate than small pores as overgrowths form, leading to an increase in the small/large pore ratio. Overall, therefore, the relative importance of fluid reactions in confined geometries is likely to increase with increased silcrete formation. The changes observed with overgrowth formation in sandstones contrast with available data for metamorphism of chemical sediments (limestones) in both the Marble Canyon contact aureole, TX (Anovitz et al., 2009), and the Hatrurim Fm. (the Mottled Zone), Israel. The unmetamorphosed limestones both show distinct multifractal scattering patterns at larger scales, and true

  15. Influencing Factors and Development Trend Analysis of China Electric Grid Investment Demand Based on a Panel Co-Integration Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinchao Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Electric grid investment demand analysis is significant to reasonably arranging construction funds for the electric grid and reduce costs. This paper used the panel data of electric grid investment from 23 provinces of China between 2004 and 2016 as samples to analyze the influence between electric grid investment demand and GDP, population scale, social electricity consumption, installed electrical capacity, and peak load based on co-integration tests. We find that GDP and peak load have positive influences on electric grid investment demand, but the impact of population scale, social electricity consumption, and installed electrical capacity on electric grid investment is not remarkable. We divide different regions in China into the eastern region, central region, and western region to analyze influence factors of electric grid investment, finally obtaining key factors in the eastern, central, and western regions. In the end, according to the analysis of key factors, we make a prediction about China’s electric grid investment for 2020 in different scenarios. The results offer a certain understanding for the development trend of China’s electric grid investment and contribute to the future development of electric grid investment.

  16. A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: Climatology, anomalies and trends

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2015-05-15

    Many arid and semi-arid regions have sparse precipitation observing networks, which limits the capacity for detailed hydrological modelling, water resources management and flood forecasting efforts. The objective of this work is to evaluate the utility of relatively high-spatial resolution rainfall products to reproduce observed multi-decadal rainfall characteristics such as climatologies, anomalies and trends over Saudi Arabia. Our study compares the statistical characteristics of rainfall from 53 observatories over the reference period 1965-2005, with rainfall data from six widely used gauge-based products, including APHRODITE, GPCC, PRINCETON, UDEL, CRU and PREC/L. In addition, the performance of three global climate models (GCMs), including CCSM4, EC-EARTH and MRI-I-CGCM3, integrated as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), was also evaluated. Results indicate that the gauge-based products were generally skillful in reproducing rainfall characteristics in Saudi Arabia. In most cases, the gauge-based products were also able to capture the annual cycle, anomalies and climatologies of observed data, although significant inter-product variability was observed, depending on the assessment metric being used. In comparison, the GCM-based products generally exhibited poor performance, with larger biases and very weak correlations, particularly during the summertime. Importantly, all products generally failed to reproduce the observed long-term seasonal and annual trends in the region, particularly during the dry seasons (summer and autumn). Overall, this work suggests that selected gauge-based products with daily (APHRODITE and PRINCETON) and monthly (GPCC and CRU) resolutions show superior performance relative to other products, implying that they may be the most appropriate data source from which multi-decadal variations of rainfall can be investigated at the regional scale over Saudi Arabia. Discriminating these skillful products is

  17. Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958–2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Tedesco, M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Ettema, J.

    2011-01-01

    To study near-surface melt changes over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) since 1979, melt extent estimates from two regional climate models were compared with those obtained from spaceborne microwave brightness temperatures using two different remote sensing algorithms. The results from the two models

  18. A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijsmans, J.F.M.; Vermeulen, G.D.; Hol, J.M.G.; Goedhart, P.W.

    2018-01-01

    Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure (‘slurry’) application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling

  19. Methods of Model Reduction for Large-Scale Biological Systems: A Survey of Current Methods and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowden, Thomas J; van der Graaf, Piet H; Tindall, Marcus J

    2017-07-01

    Complex models of biochemical reaction systems have become increasingly common in the systems biology literature. The complexity of such models can present a number of obstacles for their practical use, often making problems difficult to intuit or computationally intractable. Methods of model reduction can be employed to alleviate the issue of complexity by seeking to eliminate those portions of a reaction network that have little or no effect upon the outcomes of interest, hence yielding simplified systems that retain an accurate predictive capacity. This review paper seeks to provide a brief overview of a range of such methods and their application in the context of biochemical reaction network models. To achieve this, we provide a brief mathematical account of the main methods including timescale exploitation approaches, reduction via sensitivity analysis, optimisation methods, lumping, and singular value decomposition-based approaches. Methods are reviewed in the context of large-scale systems biology type models, and future areas of research are briefly discussed.

  20. The trends of modeling the ways of formation, distribution and exploitation of megapolis lands using geo-information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostyantyn Mamonov

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The areas of need for ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS are identified. The article is to define the areas of modeling ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. In the study, the following objectives are set: to develop an algorithm process data base (Data System creation for pecuniary valuation of land settlements with the use of GIS; to offer process model taking into account the influence of one factor modules using geographic information systems; to identify components of geo providing expert money evaluation of land metropolis; to describe the general procedure for expert money assessment of land and property by using geographic information system software; to develop an algorithm methods for expert evaluation of land. Identified tools built algorithms used for modeling the ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. Directions ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS.

  1. Long-term trends in field level irrigation water demand in Mahanadi delta districts - a hydrological modeling approach for coping with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju Pokkuluri, Venkat; Rao, Diwakar Parsi Guru; Hazra, Sugata; Srikant Kulkarni, Sunil

    2017-04-01

    India uses its 85 percent of available water resources for irrigation making it the country with largest net irrigated area in the world. With one of the largest delta plains, sustaining the needs of irrigation supplies is critical for food security and coping with challenges of climate change. The extensive development of upstream river basins/catchments is posing serious challenge and constrains to the water availability to delta regions, which depend on the controlled/regulated flows from the upstream catchments. The irrigation water demands vary due to changes in agricultural practices, cropping pattern and changing climate conditions. Estimation of realistic irrigation water demand and its trend over time is critical for meeting the supplementary water needs of productive agricultural lands in delta plains and there by coping the challenges of extensive upstream river basin development and climate change. The present study carried out in delta districts of Mahanadi river in Odisha State of India, wherein the long-term trends in field level irrigation water requirements were estimated, both on spatial & temporal scales, using hydrological modeling framework. This study attempts to estimate field level irrigation water requirements through simulation of soil water balance during the crop growing season through process based hydrological modeling framework. The soil water balance computations were carried out using FAO-56 framework, by modifying the crop coefficient (Kc) proportional to the water stress coefficient (Ks), which is a function of root zone depletion of water. Daily meteorological data, spatial cropping pattern, terrain are incorporated in the soil water balance simulation in the model. The irrigation water demand is derived considering the exclusion of soil water stress for each model time step. The field level irrigation water requirement at 8 day interval had been estimated for the each Rabi season (post-monsoon) spanning over 1986 to 2015. The

  2. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  3. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

  4. Intercalibration and Gaussian Process Modeling of Nighttime Lights Imagery for Measuring Urbanization Trends in Africa 2000–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Savory

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the world’s highest urban population growth rate of any continent at roughly 4.2% annually. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization across the continent is important to a range of fields including public health, economics, and environmental sciences. Nighttime lights imagery (NTL, maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, offers a unique vantage point for studying trends in urbanization. A well-documented deficiency of this dataset is the lack of intra- and inter-annual calibration between satellites, which makes the imagery unsuitable for temporal analysis in their raw format. Here we have generated an ‘intercalibrated’ time series of annual NTL images for Africa (2000–2013 by building on the widely used invariant region and quadratic regression method (IRQR. Gaussian process methods (GP were used to identify NTL latent functions independent from the temporal noise signals in the annual datasets. The corrected time series was used to explore the positive association of NTL with Gross Domestic Product (GDP and urban population (UP. Additionally, the proportion of change in ‘lit area’ occurring in urban areas was measured by defining urban agglomerations as contiguously lit pixels of >250 km2, with all other pixels being rural. For validation, the IRQR and GP time series were compared as predictors of the invariant region dataset. Root mean square error values for the GP smoothed dataset were substantially lower. Correlation of NTL with GDP and UP using GP smoothing showed significant increases in R2 over the IRQR method on both continental and national scales. Urban growth results suggested that the majority of growth in lit pixels between 2000 and 2013 occurred in rural areas. With this study, we demonstrated the effectiveness of GP to improve conventional intercalibration, used NTL to describe temporal patterns of urbanization in Africa, and

  5. DEVELOPING A MODULAR PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODEL FOR SHORT-TERM AND LONGTERM MARKET TRENDS AND MASS PSYCHOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jasemi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an effort to model stock markets, many researchers have developed portfolio selection models to maximise investor satisfaction. However, this field still needs more accurate and comprehensive models. Development of these models is difficult because of unpredictable economic, social, and political variables that affect stock market behaviour. In this paper, a new model with three modules for portfolio optimisation is presented. The first module derives the efficient frontier through a new approach; the second presents an intelligent mechanism for emitting trading signals; while the third module integrates the outputs of the first two modules. Some important features of the model in comparison with others are: 1 consideration of investors’ emotions – the psychology of the market – that arises from the three above-mentioned factors; 2 significant loosening of simplifying assumptions about markets and stocks; and 3 greater sensitivity to new data.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In ‘n poging om aandelemarkte te modelleer het verskeie navorsers portefeulje-seleksiemodelle ontwikkel om beleggers se tevredenheid te maksimiseer. Desnieteenstaande word meer akkurate en omvattende modelle benodig. Die ontwikkeling van hierdie modelle word bemoeilik deur die onvoorspelbare ekonomiese, sosiale en politiese veranderlikes wat aandelemarkte se gedrag raak. In hierdie artikel word ‘n nuwe model voorgehou wat bestaan uit drie modules vir portefeulje-optimisering. Die eerste module bepaal die doelmatigheidsgrens op ‘n nuwe metode; die tweede hou ‘n intelligente meganisme voor om transaksieseine te lewer terwyl die derde module die uitsette van die eerste twee modules integreer. Sommige van die belangrike eienskappe van die model wat dit van ander onderskei is: 1 konsiderasie van die beleggers se emosies – die sielkunde van die mark – wat ontstaan vanweë die genoemde faktore; 2 betekenisvolle verslapping van die

  6. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

    2009-10-15

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  7. Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

    2017-08-01

    Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, Simone; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Odgen, Fred L; Ivanov, Valeriy Y; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Gochis, David; Downer, Charles W; Camporese, Matteo; Davison, Jason H; Ebel, Brian A.; Jones, Norm; Kim, Jongho; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Niswonger, Richard G.; Restrepo, Pedro; Rigon, Riccardo; Shen, Chaopeng; Sulis, Mauro; Tarboton, David

    2016-01-01

    Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth’s system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

  9. An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, Simone; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Ogden, Fred L.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Mirus, Benjamin; Gochis, David; Downer, Charles W.; Camporese, Matteo; Davison, Jason H.; Ebel, Brian; Jones, Norm; Kim, Jongho; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Niswonger, Richard; Restrepo, Pedro; Rigon, Riccardo; Shen, Chaopeng; Sulis, Mauro; Tarboton, David

    2016-06-01

    Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth's system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

  10. Mobile Balkans: Temporality, types, trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasteva Anna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to scrutunize the Balkan migration phenomenon, highlightening the alloy between continuity and discontinuity in the explanation of migrations; the former expressed in the trends, the latter - in breakthroughs, ruptures, changes. Four periods are articulated and characterized through the major trends. The typology of Balkan migrations identifies ten types, classified in three larger categories. The article distinguishes and compares the national migration models and draws a panoramic picture of the major trends during the last quarter of a century.

  11. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  12. Investigation of Multi-decadal Trends in Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects over North America using a Coupled Meteorology-Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Wong, D.; Wei, C.; Xing, J.; Gan, M.; Yu, S.; Binkowski, F.

    2012-12-01

    While aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, there has been little effort devoted to verification of the spatial and temporal variability of the magnitude and directionality of aerosol radiative forcing. A comprehensive investigation of the processes regulating aerosol distributions, their optical properties, and their radiative effects and verification of their simulated effects for past conditions relative to measurements is needed in order to build confidence in the estimates of the projected impacts arising from changes in both anthropogenic forcing and climate change. This study aims at addressing this issue through a systematic investigation of changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over the past two decades in the United States, their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading in the North American troposphere, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. A newly developed 2-way coupled meteorology and air pollution model composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is being run for 20 years (1990 - 2010) on a 12 km resolution grid that covers most of North America including the entire conterminous US. During this period US emissions of SO2 and NOx have been reduced by about 66% and 50%, respectively, mainly due to Title IV of the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments (CAA) that aimed to reduce emissions that contribute to acid deposition. A methodology is developed to consistently estimate emission inventories for the 20-year period accounting for air quality regulations as well as population trends, economic conditions, and technology changes in motor vehicles and electric power generation. The coupled WRF-CMAQ model includes detailed treatment of direct effects of aerosols on photolysis rates as well as on shortwave radiation and the direct effects of tropospheric ozone on the long

  13. A study of long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol distributions in Asia using a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukai, Makiko; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2004-10-01

    Dust events have been observed in Japan with high frequency since 2000. On the other hand, the frequency of dust storms is said to have decreased in the desert regions of China since about the middle of the 1970s. This study simulates dust storms and transportation of mineral dust aerosols in the east Asia region from 1981 to 2001 using an aerosol transport model, Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS), implemented in the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies atmospheric global circulation model, in order to investigate the main factors that control a dust event and its long-term variation. The model was forced to simulate a real atmospheric condition by a nudging technique using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data on wind velocities, temperature, specific humidity, soil wetness, and snow depth. From a comparison between the long-term change in the dust emission and model parameters, it is found that the wind speed near the surface level had a significant influence on the dust emission, and snow is also an important factor in the early spring dust emission. The simulated results suggested that dust emissions from northeast China have a great impact on dust mass concentration in downwind regions, such as the cities of northeastern China, Korea, and Japan. When the frequency of dust events was high in Japan, a low-pressure system tended to develop over the northeast China region that caused strong winds. From 2000 to 2001 the simulated dust emission flux decreased in the Taklimakan desert and the northwestern part of China, while it increased in the Gobi desert and the northeastern part of China. Consequently, dust particles seem to be transported more from the latter region by prevailing westerlies in the springtime to downwind areas as actually observed. In spite of the similarity, however, there is still a large disagreement between observed and simulated dust

  14. Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo; Ditmar, Pavel

    2016-11-01

    The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.

  15. Trends in OSHA Compliance Monitoring Data 1979-2011: Statistical Modeling of Ancillary Information across 77 Chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarazin, Philippe; Burstyn, Igor; Kincl, Laurel; Lavoué, Jérôme

    2016-05-01

    The Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) is the largest multi-industry source of exposure measurements available in North America. However, many have suspected that the criteria through which worksites are selected for inspection are related to exposure levels. We investigated associations between exposure levels and ancillary variables in IMIS in order to understand the predictors of high exposure within an enforcement context. We analyzed the association between nine variables (reason for inspection, establishment size, total amount of penalty, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) plan, OSHA region, union status, inspection scope, year, and industry) and exposure levels in IMIS using multimodel inference for 77 agents. For each agent, we used two different types of models: (i) logistic models were used for the odds ratio (OR) of exposure being above the threshold limit value (TLV) and (ii) linear models were used for exposure concentrations restricted to detected results to estimate percent increase in exposure level, i.e. relative index of exposure (RIE). Meta-analytic methods were used to combine results for each variable across agents. A total of 511,047 exposure measurements were modeled for logistic models and 299,791 for linear models. Higher exposures were measured during follow-up inspections than planned inspections [meta-OR = 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-1.81; meta-RIE = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03-1.09]. Lower exposures were observed for measurements collected under state OSHA plans compared to measurements collected under federal OSHA (meta-OR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.73-0.92; meta-RIE = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.81-0.91). A 'high' total historical amount of penalty relative to none was associated with higher exposures (meta-OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.40-1.71; meta-RIE = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.13-1.23). The relationships observed between exposure levels and ancillary variables across a vast majority of agents suggest that certain elements of OSHA

  16. Sediment transport processes in the Pearl River Estuary as revealed by grain-size end-member modeling and sediment trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Li, Tuan-Jie

    2018-04-01

    The analysis of grain-size distribution enables us to decipher sediment transport processes and understand the causal relations between dynamic processes and grain-size distributions. In the present study, grain sizes were measured from surface sediments collected in the Pearl River Estuary and its adjacent coastal areas. End-member modeling analysis attempts to unmix the grain sizes into geologically meaningful populations. Six grain-size end-members were identified. Their dominant modes are 0 Φ, 1.5 Φ, 2.75 Φ, 4.5 Φ, 7 Φ, and 8 Φ, corresponding to coarse sand, medium sand, fine sand, very coarse silt, silt, and clay, respectively. The spatial distributions of the six end-members are influenced by sediment transport and depositional processes. The two coarsest end-members (coarse sand and medium sand) may reflect relict sediments deposited during the last glacial period. The fine sand end-member would be difficult to transport under fair weather conditions, and likely indicates storm deposits. The three remaining fine-grained end-members (very coarse silt, silt, and clay) are recognized as suspended particles transported by saltwater intrusion via the flood tidal current, the Guangdong Coastal Current, and riverine outflow. The grain-size trend analysis shows distinct transport patterns for the three fine-grained end-members. The landward transport of the very coarse silt end-member occurs in the eastern part of the estuary, the seaward transport of the silt end-member occurs in the western part, and the east-west transport of the clay end-member occurs in the coastal areas. The results show that grain-size end-member modeling analysis in combination with sediment trend analysis help to better understand sediment transport patterns and the associated transport mechanisms.

  17. Sediment transport processes in the Pearl River Estuary as revealed by grain-size end-member modeling and sediment trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Li, Tuan-Jie

    2017-07-01

    The analysis of grain-size distribution enables us to decipher sediment transport processes and understand the causal relations between dynamic processes and grain-size distributions. In the present study, grain sizes were measured from surface sediments collected in the Pearl River Estuary and its adjacent coastal areas. End-member modeling analysis attempts to unmix the grain sizes into geologically meaningful populations. Six grain-size end-members were identified. Their dominant modes are 0 Φ, 1.5 Φ, 2.75 Φ, 4.5 Φ, 7 Φ, and 8 Φ, corresponding to coarse sand, medium sand, fine sand, very coarse silt, silt, and clay, respectively. The spatial distributions of the six end-members are influenced by sediment transport and depositional processes. The two coarsest end-members (coarse sand and medium sand) may reflect relict sediments deposited during the last glacial period. The fine sand end-member would be difficult to transport under fair weather conditions, and likely indicates storm deposits. The three remaining fine-grained end-members (very coarse silt, silt, and clay) are recognized as suspended particles transported by saltwater intrusion via the flood tidal current, the Guangdong Coastal Current, and riverine outflow. The grain-size trend analysis shows distinct transport patterns for the three fine-grained end-members. The landward transport of the very coarse silt end-member occurs in the eastern part of the estuary, the seaward transport of the silt end-member occurs in the western part, and the east-west transport of the clay end-member occurs in the coastal areas. The results show that grain-size end-member modeling analysis in combination with sediment trend analysis help to better understand sediment transport patterns and the associated transport mechanisms.

  18. Driving forces behind the increasing cardiovascular treatment intensity.A dynamic epidemiologic model of trends in Danish cardiovascular drug utilization.

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten

    Background: In many Western countries cardiovascular treatment intensity (DDD/1000 inhabitants/day, DDD/TID) has grown substantially during the last decades. Changed drug utilization pattern - rather than population ageing - was hypothesized to be the main driving force behind the growth....... Objectives: To investigate the driving forces behind the increasing treatment prevalence of cardiovascular drugs, in particular statins, by means of a dynamic epidemiologic drug utilization model. Methods: Material: All Danish residents older than 20 years by January 1, 1996 (4.0 million inhabitants), were...... followed with respect to out-of-hospital redemptions of cardiovascular prescription drugs in the period 1996-2005. The impact of population ageing on cardiovascular treatment intensity was investigated by comparing crude and age/gender standardised intensities. Epidemiologic model: We developed a three...

  19. Some trends in constitutive equation model development for high-temperature behavior of fast-reactor structural alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugh, C.E.; Robinson, D.N.

    1977-01-01

    The paper addresses some important features of the inelastic behavior of 2 1 / 4 Cr--1Mo steel and indicates a mathematical framework that is capable of representing these types of response. While the constitutive model discussed embraces capabilities beyond those of equations presently used in design analyses; their implementation into practicable analysis methods (such as finite-element programs) is more demanding. For example, in the case of slow time-dependent deformations, the equations governing accumulation of the inelastic strain components and the evolution of the tensorial state variable α are intimately coupled. A part of recommending any such model for use in design must be a quantitative assessment of the economic feasibility of implementation

  20. Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

    2016-12-01

    Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

  1. The SATIRE-S model and why getting solar cycle spectral irradiance trends correct is so important

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William; Haigh, Joanna; Krivova, Natalie; Unruh, Yvonne; Solanki, Sami

    2014-05-01

    There is currently a wide range of potential spectral solar irradiance (SSI) solar cycle (SC) amplitudes suggested by observations and models. Therefore, SSI SC changes are still not fully understood. The magnitude of the SC flux changes has a direct impact upon the temperature and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere. To contribute to an understanding of the solar-climate connection, it is critical that we, as the solar community, communicate effectively with the climate community, providing uncertainties in SSI data and assessments of possible SSI options. We present the SATIRE-S reconstruction in the context of these SSI datasets. SATIRE-S is a physically based, consistent SSI reconstruction over the last three solar cycles. It shows different SC spectral variability at all wavelengths compared to the NRLSSI model, widely used in climate research. Most-importantly, SC changes in the ultra-violet (UV) can be twice as large in SATIRE-S as NRLSSI. Typically NRLSSI provides a lower limit of SC SSI UV variability. SORCE satellite observations provide SC magnitudes at the upper limit of variability, exceeding that of SATIRE-S by a factor of three at some UV wavelengths. There is currently no way to be certain if any of these three SSI datasets, or others, is correct. We also present the SSI datasets in terms of their impact on stratospheric ozone, within a 2D atmospheric model, as an example of why it is important to get SC changes correct. Using NRLSSI results in the 2D atmospheric model, we see a decrease in ozone concentration at all altitudes from solar maximum to minimum. SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE observations instead show an increase in ozone concentration in the mesosphere. The magnitude of the increase in the mesosphere when using SOLSTICE also depends greatly upon the version of the data, which means that studies using different data versions of SOLSTICE may lead to different conclusions. These results highlight why an accurate understanding of SC SSI

  2. Can Second-Generation Endogenous Growth Models Explain The Productivity Trends and Knowledge Production In the Asian Miracle Economies?

    OpenAIRE

    James B. Ang; Jakob B. Madsen

    2010-01-01

    Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semi-endogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies. © 2011 The President and Fellows of ...

  3. A Model of Proteostatic Energy Cost and Its Use in Analysis of Proteome Trends and Sequence Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepp, Kasper Planeta

    2014-01-01

    . The proteostatic selection pressure is stronger at low metabolic rates (i.e. scarce environments) and in hot habitats, explaining proteome adaptations towards rough environments as a question of energy. The model may also explain several trade-offs observed in protein evolution and suggests how protein properties......, temperature, resource availability, and turnover rates in one simple framework. We then explore the ansatz that the chemical energy remaining after proteostatic maintenance is available for reproduction (or cell division) and thus, proportional to organism fitness. Selection for lower proteostatic costs...

  4. Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanat, Jeffrey G.; Moyer, Douglas L.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hyer, Kenneth E.; Langland, Michael J.

    2016-01-13

    In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, estimated fluxes of nutrients and sediment from the bay’s nontidal tributaries into the estuary are the foundation of decision making to meet reductions prescribed by the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and are often the basis for refining scientific understanding of the watershed-scale processes that influence the delivery of these constituents to the bay. Two regression-based flux and trend estimation models, ESTIMATOR and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), were compared using data from 80 watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network (CBNTN). The watersheds range in size from 62 to 70,189 square kilometers and record lengths range from 6 to 28 years. ESTIMATOR is a constant-parameter model that estimates trends only in concentration; WRTDS uses variable parameters estimated with weighted regression, and estimates trends in both concentration and flux. WRTDS had greater explanatory power than ESTIMATOR, with the greatest degree of improvement evident for records longer than 25 years (30 stations; improvement in median model R2= 0.06 for total nitrogen, 0.08 for total phosphorus, and 0.05 for sediment) and the least degree of improvement for records of less than 10 years, for which the two models performed nearly equally. Flux bias statistics were comparable or lower (more favorable) for WRTDS for any record length; for 30 stations with records longer than 25 years, the greatest degree of improvement was evident for sediment (decrease of 0.17 in median statistic) and total phosphorus (decrease of 0.05). The overall between-station pattern in concentration trend direction and magnitude for all constituents was roughly similar for both models. A detailed case study revealed that trends in concentration estimated by WRTDS can operationally be viewed as a less-constrained equivalent to trends in concentration estimated by ESTIMATOR. Estimates of annual mean flow

  5. Schizophrenia and Psychosis: Diagnosis, Current Research Trends, and Model Treatment Approaches with Implications for Transitional Age Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Vivien

    2017-04-01

    This article reviews the current state of diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia, describing the recent proliferation of research in high-risk psychosis spectrum conditions, which are different from childhood-onset and early onset schizophrenia, and findings of psychotic-like experiences in the normal population. Taken from adult and childhood literature, clinical quandaries in accurate diagnosis, and treatment gaps in co-occurring, or sometimes confounding, conditions are discussed. Thoughts on the impact of schizophrenia on an emerging adulthood trajectory are offered. Recent best practices in the treatment of schizophrenia are consistent with a recovery-oriented model of mental health services for transitional age youth. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

    2014-10-01

    India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  7. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin S Mumbare

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India′s National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  8. Business process trends

    OpenAIRE

    von Rosing, Mark; Polovina, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Business process and business process management (BPM) concepts have matured over the years and new technology, concepts, standards and solutions appear. In this chapter\\ud we will therefore focus on the current and future process trends. We will elaborate on the importance of trends, the maturity of the subject, giving a perspective on what emerging trends, industry trends, mega trends are, what is hyped at the moment, and what has reached a market adoption where it has started to become the...

  9. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    athletes’ names, and matching sports’ name. 2) Entertainment: trending topics that describe celebrities, art and cultures, travel , movies, books...and parties. 4) Business : trending topics that are related to economy, business , career and workspace field 5) World issue: trending topics that are...trending topics that describe home, lifestyle- leisure , and service-shopping 8) Obituaries: trending topics that describe crime, law, unrest, conflicts

  10. Modeling electro-magneto-hydrodynamic thermo-fluidic transport of biofluids with new trend of fractional derivative without singular kernel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulhameed, M.; Vieru, D.; Roslan, R.

    2017-10-01

    This paper investigates the electro-magneto-hydrodynamic flow of the non-Newtonian behavior of biofluids, with heat transfer, through a cylindrical microchannel. The fluid is acted by an arbitrary time-dependent pressure gradient, an external electric field and an external magnetic field. The governing equations are considered as fractional partial differential equations based on the Caputo-Fabrizio time-fractional derivatives without singular kernel. The usefulness of fractional calculus to study fluid flows or heat and mass transfer phenomena was proven. Several experimental measurements led to conclusion that, in such problems, the models described by fractional differential equations are more suitable. The most common time-fractional derivative used in Continuum Mechanics is Caputo derivative. However, two disadvantages appear when this derivative is used. First, the definition kernel is a singular function and, secondly, the analytical expressions of the problem solutions are expressed by generalized functions (Mittag-Leffler, Lorenzo-Hartley, Robotnov, etc.) which, generally, are not adequate to numerical calculations. The new time-fractional derivative Caputo-Fabrizio, without singular kernel, is more suitable to solve various theoretical and practical problems which involve fractional differential equations. Using the Caputo-Fabrizio derivative, calculations are simpler and, the obtained solutions are expressed by elementary functions. Analytical solutions of the biofluid velocity and thermal transport are obtained by means of the Laplace and finite Hankel transforms. The influence of the fractional parameter, Eckert number and Joule heating parameter on the biofluid velocity and thermal transport are numerically analyzed and graphic presented. This fact can be an important in Biochip technology, thus making it possible to use this analysis technique extremely effective to control bioliquid samples of nanovolumes in microfluidic devices used for biological

  11. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lammel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  12. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2011-12-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

  13. Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone

  14. Institutional Research Evaluation Model (IREM): A framework for measuring organizational research trends and impact and its application in medical academia in Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanain, Mazen; Anil, Shirin; Abdo, Ayman

    2016-12-01

    Increased financial and human resource constraints for research and development (R&D) imply rigorous research evaluation to guide the research policy for wise allocation of resources. In this study, we developed a conceptual framework called the "Institutional Research Evaluation Model" (IREM) to evaluate the quality of research and its determinants. The IREM was then applied to a medical institution to study its applicability in Saudi Arabia. The IREM consists of five levels: duration decision; choice of research quality indicators [impact factor (IF), article influence scores (AIS), citations per paper (CPP), and publication in indexed journal]; trend indicators (numbers of publications, study design, subject); data extraction; and statistical techniques to determine the factors affecting impact of research. Application of the IREM to the College of Medicine, King Saud University (CMKSU) for research evaluation from 2003 to 2013 revealed that during this duration, 1722 studies were published, the highest in 2013 (n=314) and 85.5% (n=1472) in indexed journals (pinstitutional research evaluation which can guide the research policy. Copyright © 2016 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Recent trends in the development of nanophytobioactive compounds and delivery systems for their possible role in reducing oxidative stress in Parkinson’s disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesan, Palanivel; Ko, Hyun-Myung; Kim, In-Su; Choi, Dong-Kug

    2015-01-01

    Oxidative stress plays a very critical role in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD), which is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among elderly people worldwide. Increasing evidence has suggested that phytobioactive compounds show enhanced benefits in cell and animal models of PD. Curcumin, resveratrol, ginsenosides, quercetin, and catechin are phyto-derived bioactive compounds with important roles in the prevention and treatment of PD. However, in vivo studies suggest that their concentrations are very low to cross blood–brain barrier thereby it limits bioavailability, stability, and dissolution at target sites in the brain. To overcome these problems, nanophytomedicine with the controlled size of 1–100 nm is used to maximize efficiency in the treatment of PD. Nanosizing of phytobioactive compounds enhances the permeability into the brain with maximized efficiency and stability. Several nanodelivery techniques, including solid lipid nanoparticles, nanostructured lipid carriers, nanoliposomes, and nanoniosomes can be used for controlled delivery of nanobioactive compounds to brain. Nanocompounds, such as ginsenosides (19.9 nm) synthesized using a nanoemulsion technique, showed enhanced bioavailability in the rat brain. Here, we discuss the most recent trends and applications in PD, including 1) the role of phytobioactive compounds in reducing oxidative stress and their bioavailability; 2) the role of nanotechnology in reducing oxidative stress during PD; 3) nanodelivery systems; and 4) various nanophytobioactive compounds and their role in PD. PMID:26604750

  16. Marketing Trends to Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  17. Criteria Air Emissions Trends

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Air Emissions Trends site provides national trends of criteria pollutant and precursor emissions data based on the the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) from...

  18. Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... trends - flax seeds; Healthy food trends - linseeds; Healthy snacks - flaxseeds; Healthy diet - flaxseeds; Wellness - flaxseeds References Khalesi S, Irwin C, Schubert M. Flaxseed consumption may reduce blood pressure: a systematic review and ...

  19. Seasonal trends in acclimatization to cold in the Queensland fruit fly (Dacus tryoni, Diptera) and their prediction by means of a physiological model fed with climatological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meats, A

    1976-03-01

    This paper demonstrates the predictability and significance of changes in the temperature threshold for cold-torpor and in the threshold for survival at sub-zero temperatures in two contrasting types of climate. Both thresholds alter on a seasonal basis in both types of climate and it is observed that temperatures prevailing in autumn cause acclimatization for winter long before winter arrives.Torpor thresholds can be accurately predicted in laboratory-simulated climates by use of a model. When the model is used for field predictions, using shade temperature data from the field, it is only successful in predicting accurate threshold values for those parts of the year during which there is a downward trend in threshold.The relative importance of torpor-avoidance and frost-resistance is discussed with reference to records of the frequency and extent of various degrees of cold in the field. It is concluded that the marked lowering of torpor threshold prior to winter is of great significance in enabling overwintering flies to stay in their sheltered hibernacula. The relatively slight lowering of temperature threshold for frost-survival is only of significance in certain climates. It greatly improves chances of forst-survival in climates where yearly minima fall predominantly in the range-2.65°C to-4.05°C. Acclimation is not necessary for frost survival in climates where the yearly minima stay above-2.65°C whereas acclimation is ineffective in preventing frostinduced extinction when yearly minima fall below-4.5°C.

  20. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Paap, Richard

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the value of an unobserved two-state first-order Markov process. The two slopes of the Markov trend describe the growth rates in the two phases of the business cycle. This thesis deals with a Bayesian ...

  1. Trends in animal experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Rosangela; Brandau, Ricardo; Gomes, Walter J; Braile, Domingo M

    2009-01-01

    The search of the understanding of etiological factors, mechanisms and treatment of the diseases has been taking to the development of several animal models in the last decades. To discuss aspects related to animal models of experimentation, animal choice and current trends in this field in our country. In addition, this study evaluated the frequency of experimental articles in medical journals. Five Brazilian journals indexed by LILACS, SciELO, MEDLINE, and recently incorporate for Institute for Scientific Information Journal of Citation Reports were analyzed. All the papers published in those journals, between 2007 and 2008, that used animal models, were selected based on the abstracts. Of the total of 832 articles published in the period, 92 (11.1%) experimentation papers were selected. The number of experimental articles ranged from 5.2% to 17.9% of the global content of the journal. In the instructions to the authors, four (80%) journals presented explicit reference to the ethical principles in the conduction of studies with animals. The induced animal models represented 100% of the articles analyzed in this study. The rat was the most employed animal in the analyzed articles (78.3%). The present study can contribute, supplying subsidies for adoption of future editorials policies regarding the publication of animal research papers in Brazilian Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery.

  2. Stochastic Modeling Approach to the Incubation Time of Prionic Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, A. S.; da Silva, M. A.; Cressoni, J. C.

    2003-05-01

    Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are neurodegenerative diseases for which prions are the attributed pathogenic agents. A widely accepted theory assumes that prion replication is due to a direct interaction between the pathologic (PrPSc) form and the host-encoded (PrPC) conformation, in a kind of autocatalytic process. Here we show that the overall features of the incubation time of prion diseases are readily obtained if the prion reaction is described by a simple mean-field model. An analytical expression for the incubation time distribution then follows by associating the rate constant to a stochastic variable log normally distributed. The incubation time distribution is then also shown to be log normal and fits the observed BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) data very well. Computer simulation results also yield the correct BSE incubation time distribution at low PrPC densities.

  3. Distinct transmissibility features of TSE sources derived from ruminant prion diseases by the oral route in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Noël Arsac

    Full Text Available Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a misfolded form of host-encoded prion protein (PrP. Some of them, such as classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle (BSE, transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME, kuru and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, are acquired by the oral route exposure to infected tissues. We investigated the possible transmission by the oral route of a panel of strains derived from ruminant prion diseases in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein (A136R154Q171 under the control of the neuron-specific enolase promoter. Sources derived from Nor98, CH1641 or 87V scrapie sources, as well as sources derived from L-type BSE or cattle-passaged TME, failed to transmit by the oral route, whereas those derived from classical BSE and classical scrapie were successfully transmitted. Apart from a possible effect of passage history of the TSE agent in the inocula, this implied the occurrence of subtle molecular changes in the protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres following oral transmission that can raises concerns about our ability to correctly identify sheep that might be orally infected by the BSE agent in the field. Our results provide proof of principle that transgenic mouse models can be used to examine the transmissibility of TSE agents by the oral route, providing novel insights regarding the pathogenesis of prion diseases.

  4. Carbon monoxide (CO and ethane (C2H6 trends from ground-based solar FTIR measurements at six European stations, comparison and sensitivity analysis with the EMEP model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sussmann

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Trends in the CO andC2H6 partial columns ~0–15 km have been estimated from four European ground-based solar FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed stations for the 1996–2006 time period. The CO trends from the four stations Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, Harestua and Kiruna have been estimated to −0.45 ± 0.16% yr−1, −1.00 ± 0.24% yr−1, −0.62 ± 0.19 % yr−1 and −0.61 ± 0.16% yr−1, respectively. The corresponding trends for C2H6 are −1.51 ± 0.23% yr−1, −2.11 ± 0.30% yr−1, −1.09 ± 0.25% yr−1 and −1.14 ± 0.18% yr−1. All trends are presented with their 2-σ confidence intervals. To find possible reasons for the CO trends, the global-scale EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model has been used in a series of sensitivity scenarios. It is shown that the trends are consistent with the combination of a 20% decrease in the anthropogenic CO emissions seen in Europe and North America during the 1996–2006 period and a 20% increase in the anthropogenic CO emissions in East Asia, during the same time period. The possible impacts of CH4 and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs are also considered. The European and global-scale EMEP models have been evaluated against the measured CO and C2H6 partial columns from Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, Bremen, Harestua, Kiruna and Ny-Ålesund. The European model reproduces, on average the measurements at the different sites fairly well and within 10–22% deviation for CO and 14–31% deviation for C2H6. Their seasonal amplitude is captured within 6–35% and 9–124% for CO and C2H6, respectively. However, 61–98% of the CO and C2H6 partial columns in the European model are shown to arise from the boundary conditions, making the global-scale model a more suitable alternative when modeling these two species. In the evaluation of the global model the average partial columns for 2006 are shown to be within 1–9% and 37–50% of the measurements for CO and C2H6, respectively. The global model

  5. Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-07-01

    The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, ...

  6. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  7. Recent trends in the development of nanophytobioactive compounds and delivery systems for their possible role in reducing oxidative stress in Parkinson’s disease models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganesan P

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Palanivel Ganesan,1,2 Hyun-Myung Ko,2 In-Su Kim,2 Dong-Kug Choi1,2 1Nanotechnology Research Center, Department of Applied Life Science, 2Department of Biotechnology, College of Biomedical and Health Science, Konkuk University, Chungju, Republic of Korea Abstract: Oxidative stress plays a very critical role in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD, which is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among elderly people worldwide. Increasing evidence has suggested that phytobioactive compounds show enhanced benefits in cell and animal models of PD. Curcumin, resveratrol, ginsenosides, quercetin, and catechin are phyto-derived bioactive compounds with important roles in the prevention and treatment of PD. However, in vivo studies suggest that their concentrations are very low to cross blood–brain barrier thereby it limits bioavailability, stability, and dissolution at target sites in the brain. To overcome these problems, nanophytomedicine with the controlled size of 1–100 nm is used to maximize efficiency in the treatment of PD. Nanosizing of phytobioactive compounds enhances the permeability into the brain with maximized efficiency and stability. Several nanodelivery techniques, including solid lipid nanoparticles, nanostructured lipid carriers, nanoliposomes, and nanoniosomes can be used for controlled delivery of nanobioactive compounds to brain. Nanocompounds, such as ginsenosides (19.9 nm synthesized using a nanoemulsion technique, showed enhanced bioavailability in the rat brain. Here, we discuss the most recent trends and applications in PD, including 1 the role of phytobioactive compounds in reducing oxidative stress and their bioavailability; 2 the role of nanotechnology in reducing oxidative stress during PD; 3 nanodelivery systems; and 4 various nanophytobioactive compounds and their role in PD. Keywords: Parkinson’s disease, phytobioactive compounds, nanotechnology delivery systems, nanocurcumin

  8. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  9. Multiple Stage Ore Formation in the Chadormalu Iron Deposit, Bafq Metallogenic Province, Central Iran: Evidence from BSE Imaging and Apatite EPMA and LA-ICP-MS U-Pb Geochronology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Heidarian

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Chadormalu magnetite-apatite deposit in Bafq metallogenic province, Central Iran, is hosted in the late Precambrian-lower Cambrian volcano-sedimentary rocks with sodic, calcic, and potassic alterations characteristic of iron oxide copper-gold (IOCG and iron oxide-apatite (IOA ore systems. Apatite occurs as scattered irregular veinlets and disseminated grains, respectively, within and in the marginal parts of the main ore-body, as well as apatite-magnetite veins in altered wall rocks. Textural evidence (SEM-BSE images of these apatites shows primary bright, and secondary dark areas with inclusions of monazite/xenotime. The primary, monazite-free fluorapatite contains higher concentrations of Na, Si, S, and light rare earth elements (LREE. The apatite was altered by hydrothermal events that led to leaching of Na, Si, and REE + Y, and development of the dark apatite. The bright apatite yielded two U-Pb age populations, an older dominant age of 490 ± 21 Ma, similar to other iron deposits in the Bafq district and associated intrusions, and a younger age of 246 ± 17 Ma. The dark apatite yielded a U-Pb age of 437 ± 12 Ma. Our data suggest that hydrothermal magmatic fluids contributed to formation of the primary fluorapatite, and sodic and calcic alterations. The primary apatite reequilibrated with basinal brines in at least two regional extensions and basin developments in Silurian and Triassic in Central Iran.

  10. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...... in mean wind speed appears as a trend in the wind speed time series, and often a linear trend is assumed. Wind resource measurements typically include statistics of ten-minute mean and standard deviation, and for such data it is not possible to calculate the trend contribution directly, because...... based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...

  11. From meteorological to hydrological drought in the Upper Niger Basin: trend and uncertainty analysis in the monitoring and the modeling of rainfall deficits and low flow responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournet, S.; Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Hattermann, F. F.

    2012-04-01

    (ENSEMBLE) of the same region in order to classify their trends. Finally, rainfall deficit and meteorological drought are analyzed using of statistical methods and several drought indexes. The eco-hydrological model SWIM, driven by the aforementioned different regional climate data sets, is then applied to simulate changes in water resources and discharges in the basin of the Upper Niger. The results are statistically analyzed quantifying the impacts of different climate data sources on hydrological processes and drought statistics.

  12. On the Nature of Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2010-01-01

    A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

  13. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  14. Future trends in regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remick, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    This report presents a discussion on the future of nuclear regulations and what regulators should strive for. The following 6 trends are described: the regulatory presence around the world will grow; there is a trend towards giving the regulator greater independence; there is a trend toward greater self-regulation by the industry; less prescriptive regulation; regulators may be converging no a quantitative risk goal; increasing recognition of the importance of stability in the regulator

  15. Trends in Web characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Miranda, João; Gomes, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Abstract—The Web is permanently changing, with new technologies and publishing behaviors emerging everyday. It is important to track trends on the evolution of the Web to develop efficient tools to process its data. For instance, Web trends influence the design of browsers, crawlers and search engines. This study presents trends on the evolution of the Web derived from the analysis of 3 characterizations performed within an interval of 5 years. The Web portion used as a c...

  16. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  17. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2006-01-01

    depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data......The paper presents the results of a comparison between long term raw and de-trended turbulence intensity values recorded at offshore and coastal sites under different weather systems. Within the traditional framework of turbulence interpretation, where turbulence is considered as a stationary...... measurements usually include statistics of ten-minute mean and standard deviation, and it is not possible to calculate the trend contribution afterwards, because this requires access to the time-series. A huge amount of time-series, stored in the database WindData.com, are used to calculate the trend...

  18. Internal dosimetry - its evolution and new trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelli, Luiz

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents some discussions on the developments and trends of metabolic models and dosimetry and their associated parameters, which have been adopted by ICRP to evaluate intakes of radionuclides

  19. Trends in adult chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalence, incidence and urethral discharge case reporting in Mongolia from 1995 to 2016 – estimates using the Spectrum-STI model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrakh, Jugderjav; Zayasaikhan, Setsen; Jagdagsuren, Davaalkham; Enkhbat, Erdenetungalag; Jadambaa, Narantuya; Munkhbaatar, Sergelen; Taylor, Melanie; Rowley, Jane; Mahiané, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Objective To estimate Mongolia’s prevalence and incidence trends of gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women and men 15–49 years old to inform control of STIs and HIV, a national health sector priority. Methods We applied the Spectrum-STI estimation model, fitting data from two national population surveys (2001 and 2008) and from routine gonorrhoea screening of pregnant women in antenatal care (1997 to 2016) adjusted for diagnostic test performance, male/female differences and missing high-risk populations. Prevalence and incidence estimates were then used to assess completeness of national case reporting. Results Gonorrhoea prevalence was estimated at 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6–3.9%) in women and 2.9% (1.6–4.1%) in men in 2016; chlamydia prevalence levels were 19.5% (17.3–21.9%) and 15.6% (10.0–21.2%), respectively. Corresponding new incident cases in women and men in 2016 totalled 60 334 (36 147 to 121 933) and 76 893 (35 639 to 254 913) for gonorrhoea and 131 306 (84 232 to 254 316) and 148 162 (71 885 to 462 588) for chlamydia. Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence declined by an estimated 33% and 11%, respectively from 2001 to 2016. Comparing numbers of symptomatic and treated cases estimated by Spectrum with gonorrhoea case reports suggests that 15% of symptomatic treated gonorrhoea cases were reported in 2016; only a minority of chlamydia episodes were reported as male urethral discharge cases. Discussion Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence are estimated to have declined in Mongolia during the early 2000s, possibly associated with syndromic management in primary care facilities and improving treatment coverage since 2001 and scale up of HIV/STI prevention interventions since 2003. However, prevalence remains high with most gonorrhoea and chlamydia cases not treated or recorded in the public health system. PMID:29487760

  20. Use of a Dose-Response Model to Study Temporal Trends in Spatial Exposure to Coxiella burnetii : Analysis of a Multiyear Outbreak of Q Fever

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brooke, R J; Teunis, P F M; Kretzschmar, M E E; Wielders, C C H; Schneeberger, P M; Waller, L A

    The Netherlands underwent a large Q fever outbreak between 2007 and 2009. In this paper, we study spatial and temporal Coxiella burnetii exposure trends during this large outbreak as well as validate outcomes against other published studies and provide evidence to support hypotheses on the causes of

  1. Trends Shaping Education 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2010

    2010-01-01

    "Trends Shaping Education 2010" brings together evidence showing the effects on education of globalisation, social challenges, changes in the workplace, the transformation of childhood, and ICT. To make the content accessible, each trend is presented on a double page, containing an introduction, two charts with brief descriptive text and a set of…

  2. Trends in methodological differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Stynes; Malcolm I. Bevins; Tommy L. Brown

    1980-01-01

    Inconsistency in data collection has confounded attempts to identify and forecast outdoor recreation trends. Problems are highlighted through an evaluation of the methods employed in national outdoor recreation participation surveys and projections. Recommendations are advanced for improving data collection, trend measurement, and forecasting within outdoor recreation...

  3. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

    OpenAIRE

    Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

  4. Spring Framework 5: Themes & Trends

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    Spring Framework 5.0/5.1, scheduled for release in early/late 2017, focuses on several key themes: reactive web applications based on Reactive Streams, comprehensive support for JDK 9 and HTTP/2, as well as the latest API generations in the Enterprise Java ecosystem. This talk presents the overall story in the context of wider industry trends, highlighting Spring’s unique programming model strategy.

  5. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  6. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

    2017-01-01

    The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

  7. Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in north-western Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denna Michael

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Spectrum epidemiological models are used by UNAIDS to provide global, regional and national HIV estimates and projections, which are then used for evidence-based health planning for HIV services. However, there are no validations of the Spectrum model against empirical serological and mortality data from populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Serologic, demographic and verbal autopsy data have been regularly collected among over 30,000 residents in north-western Tanzania since 1994. Five-year age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs per 1,000 person years and the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age (45Q15, were calculated and compared with the Spectrum model outputs. Mortality trends by HIV status are shown for periods before the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (1994–1999, 2000–2005 and the first 5 years afterwards (2005–2009. Results: Among 30–34 year olds of both sexes, observed ASMRs per 1,000 person years were 13.33 (95% CI: 10.75–16.52 in the period 1994–1999, 11.03 (95% CI: 8.84–13.77 in 2000–2004, and 6.22 (95% CI; 4.75–8.15 in 2005–2009. Among the same age group, the ASMRs estimated by the Spectrum model were 10.55, 11.13 and 8.15 for the periods 1994–1999, 2000–2004 and 2005–2009, respectively. The cohort data, for both sexes combined, showed that the 45Q15 declined from 39% (95% CI: 27–55% in 1994 to 22% (95% CI: 17–29% in 2009, whereas the Spectrum model predicted a decline from 43% in 1994 to 37% in 2009. Conclusion: From 1994 to 2009, the observed decrease in ASMRs was steeper in younger age groups than that predicted by the Spectrum model, perhaps because the Spectrum model under-estimated the ASMRs in 30–34 year olds in 1994–99. However, the Spectrum model predicted a greater decrease in 45Q15 mortality than observed in the cohort, although the reasons for this over-estimate are unclear.

  8. Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period to develop a prediction model of an aggregate risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, P.; Mangin, A.; Hebel, P.; Lesne, O.; Malléa, P.

    2009-04-01

    There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The main objectives are to establish correlations between air pollution, exposure of people and reactivity of these people to this aggression, to validate a risk index built from air quality and pollen data in the area of Nice and to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index. The spatial extent of the experiment will be mainly the territory of "Alpes Maritimes". All the tasks are performed in collaboration with the "Heath-Environment Network" of the "Centre Hospitalier Universitaire" of Nice. The development of an adequate tool for observation (health index and/or indices per pathology) to understand impacts of pollution levels in an area is of utmost importance. These indexes should take into account the possible adverse effects associated with the coexistence of all the pollutants and environmental parameters. This tool must be able to inform the citizens about the levels of pollution in an adequate and understandable way but also to be used by relevant authorities to take a series of predetermined measures to protect the health of the population. This paper describes the first step to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index with a confidence interval 99% (and 95%): detection and estimation trends observed in concentrations of pollutants, emissions and mortality over the 1990-2005 period in the "Alpes Maritimes" area. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of the main pollutants, we

  9. Dismantling technologies trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaux, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this work dismantling technologies trends realized by the CEA are reviewed. There following technologies are presented: Data acquisition from facilities; Scenario studies; Remote handling and carriers; Dismantling techniques; Decontamination.

  10. Lung Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... in the United States, the incidence rate of lung cancer— Men Decreased significantly by 2.5% per year ...

  11. Health Plans - Trend Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This page contains several useful trend and competition indicators. Certain files will be updated monthly while others will be updated quarterly. The files are the...

  12. Healthy food trends - kale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... drugs), you may need to limit vitamin K foods. Vitamin K can affect how these medicines work. ...

  13. Healthy food trends -- quinoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - goosefoot; Healthy snacks - quinoa; Weight loss - quinoa; Healthy diet - quinoa; Wellness - quinoa ... may be purchased online or at any health food store. Major grocery stores may also carry bags ...

  14. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  15. Trends in Business Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John

    2014-01-01

    This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

  16. An investigation into trends in Advanced Placement test taking in science and mathematics among student sub-populations using a longitudinal growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, D. Michael

    The lack of preparation, participation, and equal access of students in mathematics and the science education continues to afflict America's high school system (Ratliff, 2001). Additionally, gender and ethnic status have become significant factors as females and minority subgroups such as African Americans and Hispanics continue to be underrepresented in these two subject fields. Recognizing and understanding these trends is extremely important for the future of this country. As fewer minorities and females become involved in advanced mathematics and science curriculum there will be a continued lack of minorities and females in mathematics and science careers. Additionally, this insufficient representation leads to fewer numbers of females and minorities in industry and educational leadership positions in mathematics and science to promote participation and equality in these fields. According to Brainard and Carlin (2003) as trends currently stand, these two groups will be under-represented in the fields of math and science and will continue to be denied economic and social power. Thus, a better understanding of these trends in participation in mathematics and science among these groups of students is warranted. This study is intended to accomplish four objectives. The first objective is to identify the extent to which opportunities are increasing or decreasing for students in high schools taking mathematics and science Advanced Placement exams by examining six years of student testing data from the College Board. A second objective is to identify features of high schools that relate to greater expansion in Advanced Placement test taking for females and minority groups in the areas of both math and science. A third objective is to explore whether, and to what extent, any social or educational features such as economic status, regional school and living locations, and ethnic backgrounds have enhanced or reduced Advanced Placement testing in these schools. Lastly

  17. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  18. Trending analysis of precursor events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    1998-01-01

    The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) identifies and categorizes operational events at nuclear power plants in terms of the potential for core damage. The ASP analysis has been performed on yearly basis and the results have been published in the annual reports. This paper describes the trends in initiating events and dominant sequences for 459 precursors identified in the ASP Program during the 1969-94 period and also discusses a comparison with dominant sequences predicted in the past Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies. These trends were examined for three time periods, 1969-81, 1984-87 and 1988-94. Although the different models had been used in the ASP analyses for these three periods, the distribution of precursors by dominant sequences show similar trends to each other. For example, the sequences involving loss of both main and auxiliary feedwater were identified in many PWR events and those involving loss of both high and low coolant injection were found in many BWR events. Also, it was found that these dominant sequences were comparable to those determined to be dominant in the predictions by the past PRAs. As well, a list of the 459 precursors identified are provided in Appendix, indicating initiating event types, unavailable systems, dominant sequences, conditional core damage probabilities, and so on. (author)

  19. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

  20. Model comparison to evaluate a shell quality bio-complex in layer hens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arango, J; Wolc, A; Settar, P; O'Sullivan, N P

    2016-11-01

    Reducing the incidence of egg shell breakage is an important selection goal in egg layer hens breeding. Breaking strength provides an indicator of static shell resistance correlated with shell thickness. Acoustic egg tests combine shell's resonance profile with egg mass to calculate dynamic stiffness (KDyn) a quantitative indicator of integral shell resistance, and a novel direct detection of both cracks and micro-cracks (MCr) making it possible for use in selection programs aiming improvement of shell quality. A shell quality bio-complex was defined to improve overall shell quality, including: breaking strength at equator (BSe) and poles (BSp), KDyn, and MCr, on multiple eggs/hen-age. A total of 81,667; 101,113; and 72,462 records from 4 generations of three pure lines were evaluated. Two models were tested in the brown-egg line: I) four-trait linear repeatability model and II) three-trait linear (BS, KDyn)-threshold (MCr) in the three lines. Models were implemented with AIREMLF90 and THRGIBBS1F90. Heritability and repeatability (Model I) estimates were: h 2 = 0.14, 0.18, 0.33, and 0.02; r = 0.16, 0.28, 0.43, and 0.03 for BSe, BSp, KDyn, and MCr, respectively. Corresponding values in White Plymouth Rock were h 2 = 0.14, 0.17, 0.33, and 0.02; r = 0.21, 0.33, 0.44, and 0.04, and in White Leghorn were h 2 = 0.14, 0.23, 0.36, and 0.02; r = 0.24, 0.38, 0.52, and 0.02. Genetic correlations between BSe and BSp were between 0.51 and 0.68. The BS traits were moderately correlated with KDyn (+0.23 to +0.51), and tended to be negatively correlated with MCr. KDyn, and MCr (-0.46 to -0.62). Model II had similar results; except for increased h 2 = 0.06 and r = 0.09 for MCr. Results indicate that BSe and BSp are different traits; while incidence of MCr is low in heritable but showed negative genetic correlations with the other traits. This makes MCr unsuitable for direct selection; but favors indirect selection against MCr via BSe, BSp, and KDyn for a holistic selection to

  1. Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

    2009-04-01

    The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

  2. Recent trends in space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandler, John W.; Cheng, Qingsha S.; Hailu, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    We review recent trends in the art of Space Mapping (SM) technology for modeling and design of engineering devices and systems. The SM approach aims at achieving a satisfactory solution with a handful of computationally expensive so-called "fine" model evaluations. SM procedures iteratively update...

  3. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    , method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre......-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. OUTCOMES: SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P ...BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  4. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  5. Tropospheric ozone trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guicherit, R.; Roemer, M.

    2000-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of chemical reactive trace gases have substantially altered the composition of the troposphere. These perturbations have caused tropospheric O3 increases, in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. It remains, however, difficult to accurately establish O3 trends throughout the

  6. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  7. Trends in African philosophy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JONATHAN

    In the contention of Oladipo (2006), the debate on the idea of. African philosophy which has been divided into trends or schools, dates back to the 1960's and 70's, which constitute the modern epoch of African philosophy, when some African thinkers began to question the perspective that traditional African beliefs and.

  8. Evolutionary trends in Heteroptera

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, R.H.

    1968-01-01

    1. This work, the first volume of a series dealing with evolutionary trends in Heteroptera, is concerned with the egg system of about 400 species. The data are presented systematically in chapters 1 and 2 with a critical review of the literature after each family.

    2. Chapter 3 evaluates facts

  9. Summary of Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Summary of Trends. Optical Ethernet: Direct Ethernet connectivity to businesses through optical fiber. Automation of network infrastructure: Cross-connects for interconnections; Intelligence through software for OA&M. New “data-centric” protection mechanisms ...

  10. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance...... of the new millennium in order to indicate how practice has evolved....

  11. Cotton trends in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

  12. [Development trend of nanomedicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kumiko

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology has had a great impact on science, technology, and society since 2000, and its applications in medicine are also progressing in the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. In this review, international trends in nanomedicine regulation are introduced, including the definition of nanomedicines and the evaluation of liposomes and iron nanoparticles.

  13. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  14. Optical Computing - Research Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 7. Optical Computing - Research Trends. Debabrata Goswami. General Article Volume 8 Issue 7 July 2003 pp 8-21. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/07/0008-0021. Keywords.

  15. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  16. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Freyer Dugas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. METHODS: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011 divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM, and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. RESULTS: A GARMA(3,0 forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. CONCLUSIONS: Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This

  17. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

  18. Current economic trends in equine practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Andrew R

    2009-12-01

    Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

  19. Comparison of breeding values and genetic trends for production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comparison of breeding values and genetic trends of production traits from two models is made. One set of breeding values and trends was estimated by the September/October 2003 South African National Genetic Evaluation, using a Lactation Model (LM). The other set was obtained in the 2004 South African National ...

  20. Institutional Research Evaluation Model (IREM: A framework for measuring organizational research trends and impact and its application in medical academia in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazen Hassanain

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Increased financial and human resource constraints for research and development (R&D imply rigorous research evaluation to guide the research policy for wise allocation of resources. In this study, we developed a conceptual framework called the “Institutional Research Evaluation Model” (IREM to evaluate the quality of research and its determinants. The IREM was then applied to a medical institution to study its applicability in Saudi Arabia. The IREM consists of five levels: duration decision; choice of research quality indicators [impact factor (IF, article influence scores (AIS, citations per paper (CPP, and publication in indexed journal]; trend indicators (numbers of publications, study design, subject; data extraction; and statistical techniques to determine the factors affecting impact of research. Application of the IREM to the College of Medicine, King Saud University (CMKSU for research evaluation from 2003 to 2013 revealed that during this duration, 1722 studies were published, the highest in 2013 (n = 314 and 85.5% (n = 1472 in indexed journals (p < 0.001. The mean IF was 2.6, mean AIS 1.16, and mean CPP 10.06. IF was positively associated with duration, indexation, CPP, and subject being human genetics at multivariable linear regression. The IREM is an applicable basic tool for institutional research evaluation which can guide the research policy.

  1. Lithological, grain-size and architectural trends in the holocene Rhine-Meuse delta-insights from 3D voxel models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stafleu, J.; Busschers, F.S.

    2014-01-01

    TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands systematically produces 3D voxel models for answering subsurface related questions. The unique combination of vast amounts of borehole data and the voxelbased approach makes the models valuable new sources for exploring the Quaternary fluvial record. The

  2. Occupational Trends and Program Priorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Rosenthal

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of higher education that respond to the economic base in their region will remain competitive and be better positioned to obtain public funds and donor support. In addition to mandated program viability standards based on measures such as graduation rate, individual institutions and state coordinating boards can use ten-year occupational trend data to assess future program viability. We used an occupational demand model to determine whether academic programs can meet projected statewide needs for high demand and high growth occupations. For example, computer engineering, the highest growth rate occupation in Alabama, is projected to have 365 annual average job openings, with 93.6% total growth over ten years. But only 46 computer engineering majors graduate annually from all Alabama institutions of higher education. We recommend using an occupational demand model as a planning tool, decision-making tool, and catalyst for collaborative initiatives.

  3. Current trends in plant breeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalani, B.S.; Rajanaidu, N.

    2000-01-01

    The current world population is 6 billion and it is likely to reach 7 billion in 2010 and 8 billion 2025. Sufficient food must be produced for the ever increasing human population. The available suitable land for intensive agriculture is limited. We have to produce more food from less land, pesticide, labour and water resources. Hence, increase in crop productivity are essential to feed the world in the next century. Plant breeding provides the avenue to increase the food production to feed the growing world population. Development of a cultivar involves (I) Construction of a genetic model (II) creating a gene pool (III) selection among plants and (IV) testing the selected genotypes for adaptation to the biotic and abiotic environments (Frey, 1999). This paper discusses the trends in plant breeding using the oil palm as a model. It covers (i) genetic resources (ii) physiological traits (III) exploitation of genotype x environment interaction (IV) oil palm clones, and (v) biotechnology application. (Author)

  4. Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes research to develop risk-based indicators of plant safety performance. One measure of the safety-performance of operating nuclear power plants is the unavailability of important safety systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory and Science Applications International Corporation are evaluating ways to aggregate train-level or component-level data to provide such an indicator. This type of indicator would respond to changes in plant safety margins faster than the currently used indicator of safety system unavailability (i.e., safety system failures reported in licensee event reports). Trends in the proposed indicator would be one indication of trends in plant safety performance and maintenance effectiveness. This paper summarizes the basis for such an indicator, identifies technical issues to be resolved, and illustrates the potential usefullness of such indicators by means of computer simulations and case studies

  5. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  6. Secular trends in growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

    2017-06-01

    Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  7. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  8. Trends in Mobile Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Chocholová, Petra

    2010-01-01

    The principal aim of this thesis is to assess the state of the mobile marketing as of the first quarter of 2011 and to discuss various scenarios of the future development. This thesis defines the terms "mobile marketing" and "mobile advertising" and identifies the main players in the industry. It explores the main categories of mobile advertising such as mobile messaging, in-content and mobile internet advertising. Later, it analyzes the latest trends in the industry and describes in detail t...

  9. Trends in Technology Use

    OpenAIRE

    Florin Frant

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the relationship between the use of technology, working conditions and the health and well-being of workers in Europe. As it is known that characteristics of work organisation may reinforce or impair both positive and negative effects of technology use, the role of these characteristics is also considered in this study. The research will provide an insight into the trends and changes in technology use and working conditions in European count...

  10. Recent Trends in Counterfeiting

    OpenAIRE

    Arianna Cowling

    2011-01-01

    Under the Reserve Bank Act 1959, the Reserve Bank has sole authority to issue banknotes in Australia. As such, a key responsibility of the Reserve Bank is to maintain public confidence in banknotes, so that they remain an effective payment mechanism and a secure store of wealth. This article examines how counterfeiting can impact on this confidence, and counterfeiting trends in Australia and overseas. The article also discusses the strategies the Reserve Bank employs to minimise the risks of ...

  11. New trends in museology

    OpenAIRE

    Mairesse, François

    2018-01-01

    The International Committee for Museology chose the topic for its 37th symposium, held in Paris from 5 to 9 June 2014, with the idea of opening new directions for thought about the future of museology. Focusing on new trends in museology recognizes that, during the past decades, the world of museums has undergone substantial change. Not only are there are many more museums throughout the world, but they also have radically changed in several ways: the methods of communication (the relation to...

  12. Citizenship plurality: contemporary trends

    OpenAIRE

    Petrauskaitė, Ugnė

    2008-01-01

    Summary Citizenship Plurality: Contemporary Trends Citizenship denotes the existence of a specific legal tie between individual and a state conferring mutual rights and duties. It is a matter of domestic jurisdiction of states, but the freedom of states to regulate their citizenship is restricted by rules of international law to protect fundamentals human rights and freedoms. States citizenship laws must be consistent with international conventions, international custom, and the principles of...

  13. Risk factors for service use and trends in coverage of different HIV testing and counselling models in northwest Tanzania between 2003 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, Caoimhe; Wringe, Alison; Todd, Jim; Gourlay, Annabelle; Clark, Benjamin; Masesa, Clemens; Machemba, Richard; Reniers, Georges; Urassa, Mark; Zaba, Basia

    2015-11-01

    To investigate the relative effectiveness of different HIV testing and counselling (HTC) services in improving HIV diagnosis rates and increasing HTC coverage in African settings. Patient records from three HTC services [community outreach HTC during cohort study rounds (CO-HTC), walk-in HTC at the local health centre (WI-HTC) and antenatal HIV testing (ANC-HTC)] were linked to records from a community cohort study using a probabilistic record linkage algorithm. Characteristics of linked users of each HTC service were compared to those of cohort participants who did not use the HTC service using logistic regression. Data from three cohort study rounds between 2003 and 2010 were used to assess trends in the proportion of persons testing at different service types. The adjusted odds ratios for HTC use among men with increasing numbers of sexual partners in the past year, and among HIV-positive men and women compared to HIV-negative men and women, were higher at WI-HTC than at CO-HTC and ANC-HTC. Among sero-survey participants, the largest numbers of HIV-positive men and women learned their status via CO-HTC. However, we are likely to have underestimated the numbers diagnosed at WI-HTC and ANC-HTC, due to low sensitivity of the probabilistic record linkage algorithm. Compared to CO-HTC or ANC-HTC, WI-HTC was most likely to attract HIV-positive men and women, and to attract men with greater numbers of sexual partners. Further research should aim to optimise probabilistic record linkage techniques, and to investigate which types of HTC services most effectively link HIV-positive people to treatment services relative to the total cost per diagnosis made. © 2015 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

    2018-01-01

    Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  15. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

  16. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JianYing Wang

    Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  17. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  18. Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

    2017-12-01

    To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

  19. Health belief model and practice of breast self-examination and breast cancer screening in Iranian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajian-Tilaki, Karimollah; Auladi, Sahar

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the role of different health belief model components in practice of breast cancer screening among Iranian women. A cross-sectional study of 500 women aged 18-65 years was conducted in an urban population under the coverage of a health therapeutic system in Babol, northern Iran in 2012. Demographic data and data regarding practice of breast self-examination (BSE), breast clinical examination (BCE), and mammography were collected by interview, and a standard health belief model questionnaire was used to assess women's attitudes in six different domains based on a Likert scale that ranked from 1 to 5. The average score of each item for each domain was calculated. The Wilcoxon rank test and a multiple logistic regression model were used to estimate the odds ratio of each domain for performing breast cancer screening (BSE, BCE, and mammography). The mean age of the women was 31.2 (9.4) years. Overall, the average scores in domains of perceived benefit, self-efficacy, and health motivation were significantly higher among those who performed BSE and BCE, but not for mammography. For the domains of perception of susceptibility, seriousness, and barriers, no significant differences were observed. Higher scores on the scales of perceived benefits, perceived confidence/self-efficacy, and health motivation showed significant positive association with performing BSE [adjusted OR (95 % confidence interval [CI]) 1.73 (1.11, 2.72), 4.01 (2.39, 6.73), and 2.01 (1.30, 3.08), respectively] and BCE [adjusted OR (95 % CI) 1.65 (1.0, 2.95), 2.33 (1.39, 3.91), and 1.58 (1.0, 2.53), respectively], but not for performing mammography. For perceived susceptibility, perceived seriousness, and barriers, no significant association was observed. Positive attitudes toward perceived benefits, perceived confidence/self-efficacy, and health motivation have a strong association with performing BSE and BCE. The impact of health belief model subscales on

  20. Modeled Trends in Impacts of Landing and Takeoff Aircraft Emissions on Surface Air-Quality in U.S for 2005, 2010 and 2018

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vennam, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the present-day impacts of aircraft emissions on surface air quality is essential to plan potential mitigation policies for future growth. Stringent regulation on mobile source-related emissions in the recent past coupled with anticipated rise in the growth in aviation activity can increase the relative impacts of aviation-attributable surface air quality if adequate measures for reducing aviation emissions are not implemented. Though aircraft emissions during in-flight mode (at upper altitudes) contribute a significant (70 - 80%) proportion of the total aviation emissions, landing and takeoff (LTO) related emissions can have immediate impact on surface air quality, as most of the large airports are located in urban areas, specifically those that are designated in nonattainment for O3 and/or PM2.5. In this study, we modeled impacts of aircraft emissions during LTO cycles on surface air quality using the latest version of the CMAQ model for two contemporary years (2005, 2010) and one future year (2018). For this regional scale modeling study, we used highly resolved aircraft emissions from the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), meteorology from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) downscaled with the WRF model, dynamically varying chemical boundary conditions from the CAM-Chem global model (which also used the same AEDT emissions but at the global scale), and spatio-temporally resolved lightning NOx emissions estimated using National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) flash density data. We evaluated our model results with air quality observations from surface-based networks and in-situ aircraft observation data for the contemporary years. We will present results from model evaluation using this enhanced modeling system, as well as the trajectories in aviation- related air quality (focusing on O3, NO2 and PM2.5) for the three modeling years considered in this study. These findings will help plan

  1. TREND MECHANISMS IN CONTEMPORARY FASHION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch.......Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch....

  2. Oil prices: Breaks and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera, José

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

  3. Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

  4. Climate trends across South Africa since 1980

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-04-03

    Apr 3, 2018 ... Observed CHIRPS2 rainfall and NDVI vegetation fraction show no appreciable trend except near Cape Town where drier conditions in the period 1980–2014 correspond with enhanced coastal upwelling. CMIP5 model projections for rainfall up to. 2050 reflect drying, except in the eastern coastal plains.

  5. Inferring population trends of Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Matrix population models may generate important information to prevent undesirable outcomes for endangered species. This is the case for Araucaria angustifolia, a Critically Endangered conifer, with little knowledge regarding its life history and trends in development over time. This study sought to investigate life-history ...

  6. A two warehouse deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items with a linear trend in time dependent demand over finite time horizon by Elitist Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Bhunia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a deterministic inventory model developed for deteriorating items having two separate storage facilities (owned and rented warehouses due to limited capacity of the existing storage (owned warehouse with linear time dependent demand (increasing over a fixed finite time horizon. The model is formulated with infinite replenishment and the successive replenishment cycle lengths are in arithmetic progression. Partially backlogged shortages are allowed. The stocks of rented warehouse (RW are transported to the owned warehouse (OW in continuous release pattern. For this purpose, the model is formulated as a constrained non-linear mixed integer programming problem. For solving the problem, an advanced genetic algorithm (GA has been developed. This advanced GA is based on ranking selection, elitism, whole arithmetic crossover and non-uniform mutation dependent on the age of the population. Our objective is to determine the optimal replenishment number, lot-size of two-warehouses (OW and RW by maximizing the profit function. The model is illustrated with four numerical examples and sensitivity analyses of the optimal solution are performed with respect to different parameters.

  7. Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the I(2) model with breaks in the deterministic component and illustrates with an analysis of German and US prices, exchange rates, and interest rates in 1975--1999. It provides new results on the likelihood ratio test of overidentifying restrictions on the cointegrating rela...

  8. Past, current, and future trends of red spiny lobster based on PCA with MaxEnt model in Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moya, Wladimir; Jacome, Gabriel; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2017-07-01

    In order to enhance in terms of accuracy and predict the modeling of the potential distribution of species, the integration of using principal components of environmental variables as input of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) has been proposed in this study. Principal components selected previously from the principal component analysis results performed in ArcGIS in the environmental variables was used as an input data of MaxEnt instead of raw data to model the potential distribution of red spiny lobster from the year 1997 to 2015 and for three different future scenarios 2020, 2050, and 2070. One set of six original environmental variables pertaining to the years 1997-2015 and one set of four variables for future scenarios were transformed independently into a single multiband raster in ArcGIS in order to select the variables whose eigenvalues explains more than 5% of the total variance with the purpose to use in the modeling prediction in MaxEnt. The years 1997 and 1998 were chosen to compare the accuracy of the model, showing better results using principal components instead of raw data in terms of area under the curve and partial receiver operating characteristic as well as better predictions of suitable areas. Using principal components as input of MaxEnt enhances the prediction of good habitat suitability for red spiny lobster; however, future scenarios suggest an adequate management by researches to elaborate appropriate guidelines for the conservation of the habitat for this valuable specie with face to the climate change.

  9. Interactions of carbon and water cycles in north temperate wetlands: Modeling and observing the impact of a declining water table trend on regional biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin N. Sulman; Ankur R. Desai; D.S. Mackay; S. Samanta; B.D. Cook; N. Saliendra

    2008-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon fluxes represent a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation and consequently models of climate change. In the Upper Great Lakes states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan), wetlands cover 14% of the land area, and compose up to one third of the land cover in the forest-wetland landscapes that dominate...

  10. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kallache

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  11. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  12. Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Meicun; Cai Qi

    2011-01-01

    The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

  13. Generalized minority games with adaptive trend-followers and contrarians

    OpenAIRE

    De Martino, A.; Giardina, I.; Marsili, M.; Tedeschi, A.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce a simple extension of the minority game in which the market rewards contrarian (resp. trend-following) strategies when it is far from (resp. close to) efficiency. The model displays a smooth crossover from a regime where contrarians dominate to one where trend-followers dominate. In the intermediate phase, the stationary state is characterized by non-Gaussian features as well as by the formation of sustained trends and bubbles.

  14. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; pZika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ppandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  15. Social Network Gaming Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gathwright

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this project was to determine how long the social network game Scratch-Offs, created by game development company Spice Rack Media, will remain financially viable. The game Scratch-Offs is a freeware game (users pay nothing for the actual software and is funded through micro transactions (users must pay small amounts of money to play actual games. This implies a relationship between total games played and revenue earned. Using data provided by Spice Rack, we were able to develop an exponential equation that accurately depicts usage trends over time. This equation was used to determine the date Scratch-Offs will no longer be profitable.

  16. Laser Cutting, Development Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming Ove

    1999-01-01

    In this paper a short review of the development trends in laser cutting will be given.The technology, which is the fastest expanding industrial production technology will develop in both its core market segment: Flat bed cutting of sheet metal, as it will expand in heavy industry and in cutting...... of 3-dimensional shapes.The CO2-laser will also in the near future be the dominating laser source in the market, although the new developments in ND-YAG-lasers opens for new possibilities for this laser type....

  17. Power reactor design trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    Cascade and Pulse Star represent new trends in ICF power reactor design that have emerged in the last few years. The most recent embodiments of these two concepts, and that of the HYLIFE design with which they will compare them, are shown. All three reactors depend upon protecting structural elements from neutrons, x rays and debris by injecting massive amounts of shielding material inside the reaction chamber. However, Cascade and Pulse Star introduce new ideas to improve the economics, safety, and environmental impact of ICF reactors. They also pose different development issues and thus represent technological alternatives to HYLIFE

  18. Trending Cardiovascular Nutrition Controversies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Andrew M; Morris, Pamela B; Barnard, Neal; Esselstyn, Caldwell B; Ros, Emilio; Agatston, Arthur; Devries, Stephen; O'Keefe, James; Miller, Michael; Ornish, Dean; Williams, Kim; Kris-Etherton, Penny

    2017-03-07

    The potential cardiovascular benefits of several trending foods and dietary patterns are still incompletely understood, and nutritional science continues to evolve. However, in the meantime, a number of controversial dietary patterns, foods, and nutrients have received significant media exposure and are mired by hype. This review addresses some of the more popular foods and dietary patterns that are promoted for cardiovascular health to provide clinicians with accurate information for patient discussions in the clinical setting. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Trends in nuclear education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lartigue, J.; Martinez, T.

    2008-01-01

    Today's nuclear curricula have the purpose to fulfil labor requirements of the nuclear market, both power and applications, as well as keeping up the academic level required for research and development in nuclear sciences. This work analyses the power and applications markets and the situation of nuclear education in several countries, including Mexico, as well as collective efforts promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other organizations. Conclusions are obtained about the status and trends in nuclear education, emphasizing the role of the academic and users sectors to fit the future demand and the availability of skilled personnel. (author)

  20. Global Inverse Modeling of CH4 and δ13C-CH4 Measurements to Understand Recent Trends in Methane Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmakar, S.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Rice, A. L.; Khalil, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas with a radiative forcing of 0.97 W/m2 including both direct and indirect effects and a global warming potential of 28 over a 100-year time horizon. After a decades-long period of decline beginning in the 1980s, the methane growth rate rebounded in 2007 for reasons that are of current debate. During this same growth period atmospheric methane became less enriched in the 13CH4 isotope suggesting the recent CH4 growth was caused by an increase in 13CH4-depleted biogenic emissions. Recent papers have attributed this growth to increasing emissions from wetlands, rice agriculture, and ruminants. In this work we provide additional insight into the recent behavior of atmospheric methane and global wetland emissions by performing a three-dimensional Bayesian inversion of surface CH4 and 13CH4/12CH4 ratios using NOAA Global Monitoring Division (GMD) "event-level" CH4 measurements and the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model (CTM) at a horizontal grid resolution of 2ox2.5o. The spatial pattern of wetland emissions was prescribed using soil moisture and temperature from GEOS-5 meteorology fields and soil carbon pools from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena global vegetation model. In order to reduce the aggregation error caused by a potentially flawed distribution and to account for isotopic measurements that indicate northern high latitude wetlands are isotopically depleted in 13CH4 relative to tropical wetlands we separated our pattern into three latitudinal bands (90-30°N, 30°N-0, 0-90°S). Our preliminary results support previous claims that the recent increase in atmospheric methane is driven by increases in biogenic CH4 emissions. We find that while wetland emissions from northern high latitudes (90-30°N) remained relatively constant during this time, southern hemisphere wetland emissions rebounded from a decade-long decline and began to rise again in 2007 and have remained elevated to the present. Emissions from rice

  1. Climate trends in southern Africa (with erratum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Jury

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed and projected changes in the climate of southern Africa in the period 1900–2100 were analysed. Ten observed, reanalysed and model-simulated climate data sets were explored for changes in surface air temperature, rainfall, air pressure, winds, ocean currents and sea surface height. The analysis of spatial and temporal climate trends from historical observations provided a context to assess two coupled model simulations (IPSL, MIROC based on the A1B emission scenario. Temperatures in the satellite era exhibited upward trends greater than +0.4 °C/year in the MIROC and IPSL A1B model simulations; between +0.02 °C/year and +0.03 °C/year in NCDC, HADCRU, CFS-R and NCEPe data sets; +0.01 °C/year in NCEPr and GHCN observations; and +0.002 °C/year in the ECMWF data set. Although rainfall trends in the satellite era were minimal in many data sets because of drought in the early 1980s, there was a significant downtrend in the IPSL simulation of -0.013 mm/day per year. When averaging the longer data sets together over the 20th century, the southern African rainfall trend was -0.003 mm/day per year. Other key features of the analyses include a poleward drift of the sub-tropical anticyclones and a +1.5 mm/year rise in sea surface height along the coast.

  2. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the ε-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianzhou; Zhu Wenjin; Zhang Wenyu; Sun Donghuai

    2009-01-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined ε-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the ε-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

  3. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the epsilon-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhu Wenjin, E-mail: crying.1@hotmail.co [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined epsilon-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the epsilon-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

  4. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the {epsilon}-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Zhu, Wenjin [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang, Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun, Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined {epsilon}-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the {epsilon}-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved. (author)

  5. Beliefs, attitudes, and behavior of Turkish women about breast cancer and breast self-examination according to a Turkish version of the Champion Health Belief Model Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbil, Nülüfer; Bölükbaş, Nurgül

    2012-01-01

    Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most common cancer affecting women worldwide. Although a great deal of progress has been made in the health sciences, early diagnosis, and increasing community awareness, breast cancer remains a life-threatening illness. In order to reduce this threat, breast cancer screening needs to be implemented in all communities where possible. The purpose of this study was to examine health beliefs, attitudes and behaviors about breast cancer and breast self-examination of Turkish women. Data were collected from a sample of 656 women, using an adapted Turkish version of Champion's Health Belief Model Scale (CHBMS), between January and May 2011, in Ordu province of Turkey. The results showed that 67.7% of women had knowledge about and 55.8% performed BSE, however 60.6% of those who indicated they practiced BSE reported they did so at irregular intervals. CHBMS subscales scores of women according to women's age, education level, occupation, family income and education level of the women's mothers, family history of breast cancer, friend and an acquaintance with breast cancer, knowledge about breast cancer, BSE and mammography were significantly different. Knowledge of women about the risks and benefits of early detection of breast cancer positively affect their health beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Health care professionals can develop effective breast health programs and can help women to gain good health behavior and to maintain health.

  6. Uncertainty in ocean mass trends from GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Katherine J.; Ponte, Rui M.

    2010-05-01

    Ocean mass, together with steric sea level, are the key components of total observed sea level change. Monthly observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) can provide estimates of the ocean mass component of the sea level budget, but full use of the data requires a detailed understanding of its errors and biases. We have examined trends in ocean mass calculated from 6 yr of GRACE data and found differences of up to 1 mmyr-1 between estimates derived from different GRACE processing centre solutions. In addition, variations in post-processing masking and filtering procedures required to convert the GRACE data into ocean mass lead to trend differences of up to 0.5 mmyr-1. Necessary external model adjustments add to these uncertainties, with reported postglacial rebound corrections differing by as much as 1 mmyr-1. Disagreement in the regional trends between the GRACE processing centres is most noticeably in areas south of Greenland, and in the southeast and northwest Pacific Ocean. Non-ocean signals, such as in the Indian Ocean due to the 2004 Sumatran-Andean earthquake, and near Greenland and West Antarctica due to land signal leakage, can also corrupt the ocean trend estimates. Based on our analyses, formal errors may not capture the true uncertainty in either regional or global ocean mass trends derived from GRACE.

  7. Socioeconomic trends in radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barneveld Binkhuysen, F.H.

    1998-01-01

    For radiology the socioeconomic environment is a topic of increasing importance. In addition to the well-known important scientific developments in radiology such as interventional MRI, several other major trends can be recognized: (1) changes in the delivery of health care, in which all kinds of managed care are developing and will influence the practice of radiology, and (2) the process of computerization and digitization. The socioeconomic environment of radiology will be transformed by the developments in managed care, teleradiology and the integration of information systems. If radiologists want to manage future radiology departments they must have an understanding of the changes in the fields of economics and politics that are taking place and that will increasingly influence radiology. Some important and recognizable aspects of these changes will be described here. (orig.)

  8. Trends in contemporary mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Strickland, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    This book covers a wide spectrum of hot topics and current trends in mathematics, including noncommutative algebra via deformation theory,  optimal transportation, nonlinear potential theory, kinetic theory and gas dynamics, geometric numerical integration, finite simple groups of small essential dimension, optimal control problems, extended Dynkin diagrams, spin glasses, aspherical closed manifolds, Boltzmann systems, birational geometry of projective varieties and directed graphs, nonlinear diffusion, geometric constructions of extremal metrics on complex manifolds, and Pell’s equation in polynomials. The book comprises a selection of contributions by leading international mathematicians who were speakers at the "INdAM Day", an initiative dating back to 2004 at which the most recent developments in contemporary mathematics are presented.

  9. TRENDS IN ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjol Florentina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an industry of the future, having the potential to provide significant revenues, and an industry of 'beauty', because it will protect, preserve and contribute to arranging the environment affected by other human activities. This is why it is very important to know the evolution of this underdeveloped field in our country. This paper is intended as a study on current trends in Romanian tourism without any claim of being an exhaustive research on the industry, describing the main indices of tourist traffic and their influence on Romanian tourism. Nowadays, we witness three main trends in Romanian tourism: sustainability, ecotourism and the increasing presence of cultural tourism. Ecotourism, as a form of tourism, has emerged from people's need to withdraw in nature, to visit and learn about the natural areas which have or have not a national or international protection status. Cultural tourism appears as a type of tourism clearly differentiated from other forms or types of tourism, particularly through motivation. It can be defined as a form of tourist mobility whose primary goal is broadening the horizon of knowledge by uncovering its architectural and artistic heritage and the areas in which it originates. Sustainability for tourism, as for other industries, has three independent aspects: economic, socio-cultural and environmental. Sustainability implies permanence, which means that sustainable tourism requires the optimal use of resources, minimizing the negative economic, socio-cultural and ecological impact, maximizing the benefits upon local communities, national economies and conservation of nature. Regarding statistical data, in what quantity is concerned, there is an increase in Romanian tourism, but in what quality is concerned there is a setback for tourism in the last years. This aspect should make public authorities take concern in improving the infrastructure and the quality of the touristical activity and in diversifying

  10. The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

  11. Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Nishihama, Masahiro

    2009-01-01

    Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

  12. Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt--spatial and temporal trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenu, Karine; Deihimfard, Reza; Chapman, Scott C

    2013-05-01

    Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  13. Levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a modelling study using the Family Planning Estimation Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Jin Rou; Cahill, Niamh; Stover, John; Gupta, Yogender Pal; Alkema, Leontine

    2017-03-01

    Improving access to reproductive health services and commodities is central to development. Efforts to assess progress on this front have been largely focused on national estimates, but such analyses can mask local disparities. We assessed progress in reproductive health services subnationally in India. We developed a statistical model to generate estimates and projections of levels and trends in family planning indicators for subpopulations. The model builds onto the UN Population Division's Family Planning Estimation Model and uses data from multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, the District Level Household & Facility Survey, and the Annual Health Survey. We present annual estimates and projections of levels and trends in the prevalence of modern contraceptive use, and unmet need and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India from 1990 to 2030. We also compared projections of demand satisfied with modern methods with the proposed goal of 75%. There is a large amount of heterogeneity in India, with a difference of up to 55·1 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 46·4-62·1) in modern contraceptive use in 2015 between subregions. States such as Andhra Pradesh, with 92·7% (90·9-94·2) demand satisfied with modern methods, are performing well above the national average (71·8%, 56·7-83·6), whereas Manipur, with 26·8% (16·7-38·5) of demand satisfied, and Meghalaya, with 45·0% (40·1-50·0), consistently lag behind the rest of the country. Manipur and Meghalaya require the highest percentage increase in modern contraceptive use to achieve 75% demand satisfied with modern methods by 2030. In terms of absolute numbers, Uttar Pradesh requires the greatest increase, needing 9·2 million (5·5-12·6 million) additional users of modern contraception by 2030 to meet the target of 75%. The demand for family planning among the states and union territories in India is highly diverse. Greatest attention is needed in

  14. Trends in Croatian hotel industry

    OpenAIRE

    Jasmina GRZINIC

    2008-01-01

    Tourism and hotel business is becoming one of the leading industries of the world. Therefore, an increased attention needs to be paid to the study of trends in tourism because they determine the trends in hotel industry. The purpose of the paper is to point out the importance of hotel industry as one of the most important elements of development in tourist economies. The paper aims at introducing the newest trends in modern hotel industry and offering a review of the recent trends of demand a...

  15. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  16. CLOUD COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian IVANUS

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing has been a tremendous innovation, through which applications became available online, accessible through an Internet connection and using any computing device (computer, smartphone or tablet. According to one of the most recent studies conducted in 2012 by Everest Group and Cloud Connect, 57% of companies said they already use SaaS application (Software as a Service, and 38% reported using standard tools PaaS (Platform as a Service. However, in the most cases, the users of these solutions highlighted the fact that one of the main obstacles in the development of this technology is the fact that, in cloud, the application is not available without an Internet connection. The new challenge of the cloud system has become now the offline, specifically accessing SaaS applications without being connected to the Internet. This topic is directly related to user productivity within companies as productivity growth is one of the key promises of cloud computing system applications transformation. The aim of this paper is the presentation of some important aspects related to the offline cloud system and regulatory trends in the European Union (EU.

  17. Future trends in reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouyer, H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper about future trends in reprocessing essentially reflects French experience and points of view as an example of countries which, like England and Japan, consider that reprocessing is the best solution for the back end of the fuel cycle. In order to know what the future will be, it is necessary to look back at the past and try to find what have been the main reasons for evolution in that period. For reprocessing, it appears that these motivations have been 'safety and economics'. They will remain the motivations for the future. In addition, new motivations for development are starting to appear which are still imprecise but can be expressed as follows: 'which guarantees will public opinion require in order to be convinced that solutions for waste management, proposed by specialists shall ensure that a healthy environment is preserved for the use of future generations'. Consequently the paper examines successively the evolution of reprocessing in the recent past, what the immediate future could be and finally what should be necessary in the long term. (Author)

  18. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  19. Trends in environmental management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.E. [Arthur D. Little of Canada Limited, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1995-11-01

    Changes wrought by environmental regulations in the way companies produce, develop, and deliver their products and services were discussed. Some `tell-tale` signs of a vacuum of industry leadership in environmental affairs were identified. These included: lack of a `visible` corporate environmental policy, role confusion, limited action in response to plans, process myopia, poorly utilized data, hidden accomplishments, and an adversarial relationship with the regulatory bodies. Key trends in environmental management, and the necessary attributes for effective environmental management expected of the next generation of industry leaders were briefly described, including (1) the incorporation of environmental plans into the core of the business process, and into corporate strategy; (2) the formation of business-led, line-driven, rather than staff driven plans; and (3) increased measurement and broad dissemination of environmental successes, and their incorporation into the company`s strategic leverage. The overwhelming importance of commitment at the highest level, and the value of a business-oriented approach over a functional approach for effective environmental management were stressed.

  20. Trends in nutrients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heathwaite, A.L.; Johnes, P.J.; Peters, N.E.

    1996-01-01

    The roles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as key nutrients determining the trophic status of water bodies are examined, and evidence reviewed for trends in concentrations of N and P species which occur in freshwaters, primarily in northern temperate environments. Data are reported for water bodies undergoing eutrophication and acidification, especially water bodies receiving increased nitrogen inputs through the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Nutrient loading on groundwaters and surface freshwaters is assessed with respect to causes and rates of (change, relative rates of change for N and P, and implications of change for the future management of lakes, rivers and groundwaters. In particular, the nature and emphasis of studies for N species and P fractions in lakes versus rivers and groundwaters are contrasted. This review paper primarily focuses on results from North America and Europe, particularly for the UK where a wide range of data sets exists. Few nutrient loading data have been published on water bodies in less developed countries; however, some of the available data are presented to provide a global perspective. In general, N and P concentrations have increased dramatically (>20 times background concentrations) in many areas and causes vary considerably, ranging from urbanization to changes in agricultural practices.

  1. Light-Duty Vehicle CO2 and Fuel Economy Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report provides data on the fuel economy, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and technology trends of new light-duty vehicles (cars, minivans, sport utility vehicles, and pickup trucks) for model years 1975 to present in the United States.

  2. Trends in Philippine Library History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Vicente S.

    This paper divides Philippine library history into three periods, establishing a relationship between historical events and library trends. During the Spanish period, modern library trends were introduced through the establishment of the Sociedad Economica in 1780, but did not influence Philippine library culture until the later part of the 19th…

  3. Selected Trends of the Cybercrime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Požár

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution paid particular attention to trends of the cybercrime in future period dedicated to combating negative phenomena in the context of cyberspace. The structure of article concern of definition of cybercrime, its legal classification especially choosing trends of cybercrime in future period.

  4. Trends in advanced wastewater treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henze, M.

    1997-01-01

    The paper examines the present trends within wastewater handling and treatment. The trend is towards the extremes, either local low-tech treatment or centralized advanced treatment plants. The composition of the wastewater will change and it will be regarded as a resource. There will be more...

  5. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  6. Interior Design Trends in Libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sager, Don, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    Four contributing authors discuss perspectives on current trends in library interior design. Articles include: "Trends in Library Furnishings: A Manufacturer's Perspective" (Andrea Johnson); "Libraries, Architecture, and Light: The Architect's Perspective" (Rick McCarthy); "The Library Administrator's Perspective" (Chadwick Raymond); and "The…

  7. Extending the trend vector: The trend matrix and sample-based partial least squares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Robert P.; Nachbar, Robert B.; Bush, Bruce L.

    1994-06-01

    Trend vector analysis [Carhart, R.E. et al., J. Chem. Inf. Comput. Sci., 25 (1985) 64], in combination with topological descriptors such as atom pairs, has proved useful in drug discovery for ranking large collections of chemical compounds in order of predicted biological activity. The compounds with the highest predicted activities, upon being tested, often show a several-fold increase in the fraction of active compounds relative to a randomly selected set. A trend vector is simply the one-dimensional array of correlations between the biological activity of interest and a set of properties or `descriptors' of compounds in a training set. This paper examines two methods for generalizing the trend vector to improve the predicted rank order. The trend matrix method finds the correlations between the residuals and the simultaneous occurrence of descriptors, which are stored in a two-dimensional analog of the trend vector. The SAMPLS method derives a linear model by partial least squares (PLS), using the `sample-based' formulation of PLS [Bush, B.L. and Nachbar, R.B., J. Comput.-Aided Mol. Design, 7 (1993) 587] for efficiency in treating the large number of descriptors. PLS accumulates a predictive model as a sum of linear components. Expressed as a vector of prediction coefficients on properties, the first PLS component is proportional to the trend vector. Subsequent components adjust the model toward full least squares. For both methods the residuals decrease, while the risk of overfitting the training set increases. We therefore also describe statistical checks to prevent overfitting. These methods are applied to two data sets, a small homologous series of disubstituted piperidines, tested on the dopamine receptor, and a large set of diverse chemical structures, some of which are active at the muscarinic receptor. Each data set is split into a training set and a test set, and the activities in the test set are predicted from a fit on the training set. Both the trend

  8. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  9. Examining evapotranspiration trends in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshall, Michael; Michaelsen, Joel [University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Climate Hazards Group, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Funk, Christopher [University of California Santa Barbara, US Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Surface temperatures are projected to increase 3-4 C over much of Africa by the end of the 21st century. Precipitation projections are less certain, but the most plausible scenario given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Sahel and East Africa will experience modest increases ({proportional_to}5%) in precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Evapotranspiration (E{sub a}) is an important component of the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles that impact several climate properties, processes, and feedbacks. The interaction of E{sub a} with climate change drivers remains relatively unexplored in Africa. In this paper, we examine the trends in E{sub a}, precipitation (P), daily maximum temperature (T{sub max}), and daily minimum temperature (T{sub min}) on a seasonal basis using a 31 year time series of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) E{sub a}. The VIC model captured the magnitude, variability, and structure of observed runoff better than other LSMs and a hybrid model included in the analysis. In addition, we examine the inter-correlations of E{sub a}, P, T{sub max}, and T{sub min} to determine relationships and potential feedbacks. Unlike many IPCC climate change simulations, the historical analysis reveals substantial drying over much of the Sahel and East Africa during the primary growing season. In the western Sahel, large increases in daily maximum temperature appear linked to E{sub a} declines, despite modest rainfall recovery. The decline in E{sub a} and latent heating in this region could lead to increased sensible heating and surface temperature, thus establishing a possible positive feedback between E{sub a} and surface temperature. (orig.)

  10. [New trends in tonometry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draeger, J A; Schwenteck, T; Ruokonen, P C

    2006-10-01

    Though the knowledge about the risk of elevated intraocular pressure for pathogenesis for development and progress of glaucoma is more than 400 years old. It took another 300 years before by means of tonometry this elevation could be quantified. After discussion of the key words it is our aim to demonstrate the latest trends in tonometry, specifically by use of modern electronics for instrument design. Goldmann was the founder of the "applanation tonometry", measuring the corelation of applanated area and applied force. Here, the next step was the development of instruments, measuring independent of position or gravity to allow application also at the lying patient. Electronic area detection was the next step to avoid examinor's error. Also important was the introduction of automatic UV-desinfection to avoid contamination of the other eye or other patients. Other tonometers control the force applied by an inductive method, which also allows application independent of position. Airpuff-tonometry uses completely different measuring principles - the resulting change of corneal curvature indicates the intraocular pressure. The impedance principle is applied even through the closed eye lid. The shock waves resulting shall be measured. Direct application of a surface sensor incorporated into a concave surface contact body shall allow direct measurement of intraocular pressure independent of corneal thickness, curvature, astigmatism. This method has been tried for more than 20 years. Also exposition of the eye to count waves of different frequency was an early attempt. Here also change of reflectivity is used to calculate intraocular pressure. Even after use of modern electronic technology the precision of many of these new devices does not lead to better results. This specifically is shown by modern calibration methods.

  11. Older People's Mobility: Segments, Factors, Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu

    2015-01-01

    people’s travel behaviour. Based on this, we proposed a theoretical model on how the different determinants work together to form the four mobility patterns related to the identified segments. Finally, based on current trends and expectations, we assessed which segments are likely to increase or decrease...... in future generations of older people and what should be done to support the multi-optional and independent mobility of older people....

  12. Nonlinear Trend and Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    luo, yinghao

    2016-01-01

    Abstract. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the evidence on the purchasing power parity (PPP) in the long run is still a matter of debate. The difficulties of the problem are the possible nonstationarity of relative price indices and nominal exchange rates. The traditional ways to deal with nonstationarity such as unit root model and cointegration have some problems. In this paper, to deal with nonstationarity, we apply the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) trend-cycle filter in real busine...

  13. Teacher Consultant Model. Trend of the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pine, Martha; And Others

    This paper focuses on the history and utilization of special education funding in the Green Valley Area Education Agency 14 (AEA 14). AEA 14 is the most rural AEA in Iowa and serves 22 public school districts and 1 parochial school district. AEA 14 has lagged financially due to its sparse population and low special education funding. Services such…

  14. Career Education Models. Trends and Issues Alert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Bettina Lankard

    The evolution of the workplace has required changes in the guidance and counseling practices of career education (CE). Basic elements of CE strategies for enhancing students' career awareness, exploration, and planning are still in place, but contemporary issues such as life-work balance, involuntary career transitions, and mentoring have led to…

  15. Psychosocial predictors of breast self-examination behavior among female students: an application of the health belief model using logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didarloo, Alireza; Nabilou, Bahram; Khalkhali, Hamid Reza

    2017-11-03

    Breast cancer is a life-threatening condition affecting women around the world. The early detection of breast lumps using a breast self-examination (BSE) is important for the prevention and control of this disease. The aim of this study was to examine BSE behavior and its predictive factors among female university students using the Health Belief Model (HBM). This investigation was a cross-sectional survey carried out with 334 female students at Urmia University of Medical Sciences in the northwest of Iran. To collect the necessary data, researchers applied a valid and reliable three-part questionnaire. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a chi-square test, in addition to multivariate logistic regression statistics in SPSS software version 16.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The results indicated that 82 of the 334 participants (24.6%) reported practicing BSEs. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that high perceived severity [OR = 2.38, 95% CI = (1.02-5.54)], high perceived benefits [OR = 1.94, 95% CI = (1.09-3.46)], and high perceived self-efficacy [OR = 13.15, 95% CI = (3.64-47.51)] were better predictors of BSE behavior (P < 0.05) than low perceived severity, benefits, and self-efficacy. The findings also showed that a high level of knowledge compared to a low level of knowledge [OR = 5.51, 95% CI = (1.79-16.86)] and academic undergraduate and graduate degrees compared to doctoral degrees [OR = 2.90, 95% CI = (1.42-5.92)] of the participants were predictors of BSE performance (P < 0.05). The study revealed that the HBM constructs are able to predict BSE behavior. Among these constructs, self-efficacy was the most important predictor of the behavior. Interventions based on the constructs of perceived self-efficacy, benefits, and severity are recommended for increasing women's regular screening for breast cancer.

  16. Methodology for Characterizing Trends | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  17. Marketing: Trends and behaviour patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salai Suzana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In order for marketing to act proactively, it must acknowledge the trends (mega and metatrends which anticipate future changes reagrding the customer as well as changes in consumption, regarding products and rivals. From yesterday's industrial era, through space conquering era and today's dominating information era, the world is turning toward 'the era of the man'. Human potential (talent, innovativeness, creativity grows to be the main determinant of economic development will have to face new reality which will have higher importance for management companies and individuals, as well. Societies and economies underlay significant transformations on a daily basis which occur randomly. Whatsoever, it might seem to the observer that these transformations are almost tangible. For example, the presently overwhelming business models are shored to be redefined in the forecoming period. Present models that rose out of the recent recession have imposed hard times to societies which will probably strengthen them. It will be necessary to reconcept the social system and redefine values. In marketing and business the upcoming of new power calls for new conceptions and practice. Marketers understand the need for a full, cohesive approach that leaves behind traditional marketing. This new holistic conception is based on development, design and realization of marketing programmes, processes and activities by which the width and interrelatedness of effects are acknowledged, e.g. that everything has its importance in marketing and that a wide, integrated perspective is necessary. Changes regarding the customer are headed towards searching for one's identity, while behaviour aims at the way the customer wants himself/herself to be seen by the environment.

  18. Modern trends in contemporary chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Javed, H.; Pervez, H.; Qadeer, R.

    1993-01-01

    This publication contains a collection of papers presented at symposium on M odern Trends in Contemporary Chemistry , that was held in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 6-8, 1990. The symposium was divided into five sections for presentation of about 55 scientific and technical papers and 6 review papers. The contents of these papers were of good quality in the widespread concern in new trends of chemistry. The six reviews papers covered fields of ortho metallation reactions, evaluation of heterogeneous electron transfer rate contents, macro reticular ion-exchange resins, spectrochemical analytical techniques, liquid crystal-high technology materials for practical applications and trends in advanced ceramics. (A.B.)

  19. Trends in information behaviour research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greifeneder, Elke Susanne

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. This paper traces current trends in information behaviour research, both in terms of methods and topics. Results are put into relation to the previous trend analysis by Julien et al. (2011) and Vakkari (2008). Method. Trends derive from a publication analysis taken from information...... are gaining terrain. Information seeking is still the major topic of interest. Important newer topics are studies focusing on users’ context and on special needs. Conclusion. Information behaviour research has evolved a great deal over the last years and has taken on new methods and new topics. A discussion...

  20. ANALYZING TRENDS IN REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN NORTHWEST PART OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadreza Azizzadeh

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. It is essential in all of hydro climatological studies, irrigation and drainage calculations, water balance, and crop water requirements. The aim of this study is to investigate temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ETo in the Northwest part of Iran. For this purpose, the meteorological data from 20 synoptic stations over a 22-year time period (1986–2007 were used. After the calculation of ETo using the Penman-Monteith FAO-56 method, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the temporal trends on monthly, seasonal and annual scales. The Sen’s estimator method was used and to calculate the slope of the trend line. The results indicated that the ETo trend was increasing (positive in various months, except for the Sarab station in December. On a monthly scale, the Maragheh station showed the highest positive slope in August, and the Bijar station showed the highest negative slope in May. 43.34% of the stations showed a significant trend, and 56.66% did not show a significant trend. In seasonal and annual time periods there was not a significant decreasing trend in any of the stations. The analysis of the results shows that in the spring 20%, in the summer 55%, in the fall 70%, in the winter 75%, and on an annual scale 60% of the stations under study showed an increasing trend. For modeling these changes, the spatial distribution of ETo trends (on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales were mapped in ArcGIS. Final models determine that most stations in this study show an increasing trend on monthly, seasonal and annual scales.

  1. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti AREKAR

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

  2. Trends in software testing

    CERN Document Server

    Mohanty, J; Balakrishnan, Arunkumar

    2017-01-01

    This book is focused on the advancements in the field of software testing and the innovative practices that the industry is adopting. Considering the widely varied nature of software testing, the book addresses contemporary aspects that are important for both academia and industry. There are dedicated chapters on seamless high-efficiency frameworks, automation on regression testing, software by search, and system evolution management. There are a host of mathematical models that are promising for software quality improvement by model-based testing. There are three chapters addressing this concern. Students and researchers in particular will find these chapters useful for their mathematical strength and rigor. Other topics covered include uncertainty in testing, software security testing, testing as a service, test technical debt (or test debt), disruption caused by digital advancement (social media, cloud computing, mobile application and data analytics), and challenges and benefits of outsourcing. The book w...

  3. Trends in nuclear astrophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, H.

    1986-07-01

    Two instances in which the good success of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis in reproducing the abundance observations of the light elements has been used for the development of high energy physics and of early cosmological models have been described. The first case is in relation with the families of elementary particles the other case is in the formulation of multidimensional cosmologies (as superstring theories) taking into account the observed constancies of the 4-D versions of the coupling constants

  4. Using Google Trends for influenza surveillance in South China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Kang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate influenza activity in many countries; however there is currently no Google Flu Trends or other Internet search data used for influenza surveillance in China. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Influenza surveillance data from 2008 through 2011 were obtained from provincial CDC influenza-like illness and virological surveillance systems of Guangdong, a province in south China. Internet search data were downloaded from the website of Google Trends. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated to compare surveillance data and internet search trends. The correlation between CDC ILI surveillance and CDC virus surveillance was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.66. The strongest correlation was between the Google Trends term of Fever and ILI surveillance with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.79. When compared with influenza virological surveillance, the Google Trends term of Influenza A had the strongest correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.79 in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that Google Trends in Chinese can be used as a complementary source of data for influenza surveillance in south China. More research in the future should develop new models using search trends in Chinese language to estimate local disease activity and detect early signals of outbreaks.

  5. Using Google Trends for influenza surveillance in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min; Zhong, Haojie; He, Jianfeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Yang, Fen

    2013-01-01

    Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate influenza activity in many countries; however there is currently no Google Flu Trends or other Internet search data used for influenza surveillance in China. Influenza surveillance data from 2008 through 2011 were obtained from provincial CDC influenza-like illness and virological surveillance systems of Guangdong, a province in south China. Internet search data were downloaded from the website of Google Trends. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data and internet search trends. The correlation between CDC ILI surveillance and CDC virus surveillance was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.66). The strongest correlation was between the Google Trends term of Fever and ILI surveillance with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.79). When compared with influenza virological surveillance, the Google Trends term of Influenza A had the strongest correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.79) in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic period. This study shows that Google Trends in Chinese can be used as a complementary source of data for influenza surveillance in south China. More research in the future should develop new models using search trends in Chinese language to estimate local disease activity and detect early signals of outbreaks.

  6. Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan

    2017-04-01

    The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

  7. Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

  8. Nuclear imaging: Advances and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herk, G. van

    1986-01-01

    In this article, nuclear imaging instruments that are likely to be of interest to the nuclear medicine community of developing countries are emphasized. The advances, trends, developments, and future directions in the field of nuclear imaging are mentioned

  9. Trends in Egyptian Salafi Activism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Heffelfinger, Chris

    2007-01-01

    .... That climate in Cairo gauged by recent public opinion polls, my interviews and observations, and trends among Salafis in Egypt today does not seem to bode favorably for militant Islamist activism...

  10. Arsenic | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  11. Cadmium | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  12. Radon | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  13. Benzene | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  14. Trends of tropospheric ozone over Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roemer, M.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of the study on the title subject is to investigate the phenomena which have contributed to the observed trends of surface concentrations of ozone (O{sub 3}) and related species in The Netherlands and nearby countries. The presence in the European troposphere of relatively high concentrations of so-called ozone precursors establish a net chemical production of ozone. Since the atmospheric residence time of methane (CH{sub 4}) is much longer than that of all other VOC-species the rest is often referred to as non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). The photo-stationary state relations are a set of three chemical reactions which rapidly converts ozone and nitrogen monoxide (NO) into nitrogen dioxide and oxygen (O{sub 2}) and vice versa. In NO{sub x}-rich environments such as in The Netherlands, this set of reactions transforms much of the ozone into NO{sub 2} which therefore can be regarded as potential ozone. Under such conditions it is convenient to use oxidant which is a conserved quantity for the photo-stationary state relations. The combination of NO{sub x} and VOCs produces ozone, but also other secondary species such as peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN). There are, however, a few differences between the formation of ozone and PAN and there are differences in their background levels as well. PAN concentrations in Europe are strongly determined by local (European) production, much more than the ozone concentrations in Europe. Therefore, studying trends of PAN concentrations is useful in distinguishing the contributions of different processes to the trends of ozone. Important aspects which possibly have contributed to trends of ozone concentrations are mentioned and discussed. Several aspects concerning the quantitative analysis of trends of surface concentrations of ozone, oxidant, PAN, NOX and NMVOS were investigated. The emphasis in this study is on the contribution of European emission changes since 1980 to the trends of ozone and oxidant

  15. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Andersen, Lars Bo; Bugge, Anna

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes...... in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes...... prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes...

  16. What's trending in infection control?

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Brett G..; Petrie, Dayna.; Morton, Lindsay.; Dancer, Stephanie J..

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To explore the trends in infection control peer-reviewed journals, mainstream media, and blogs written by infection control professionals DESIGN Narrative and scoping reviews METHODS Narrative and scoping reviews were performed to identify trending infection prevention and control topics from international journals, national news websites, newspapers, and so-called grey literature throughout 2015. Data were analyzed using word frequencies, and results are displayed in word clouds. R...

  17. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    human history . Human and Animal Health Under Pressure. Changing environmental conditions and increasing global connectivity will affect...PARADOX OF PROGRESS A pub l ica t ion o f the Nat ional In te l l i gence Counci l GLOBAL TRENDS JANUARY 2017 NIC 2017-001 ISBN 978-0-16-093614...1 The Map of the Future 5 Trends Transforming the Global Landscape 29 Near Future: Tensions Are Rising 45 Three Scenarios for the Distant Future

  18. Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Ying; Zhang, Yang; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2015-08-18

    Online-coupled climate and chemistry models are necessary to realistically represent the interactions between climate variables and chemical species and accurately simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on cloud, precipitation, and radiation. In this Part I of a two-part paper, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the physics package of Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) are conducted with the default heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization over East Asia for two full years: 2006 and 2011. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed using satellite and surface observations. The model shows an overall acceptable performance for major meteorological variables at the surface and in the boundary layer, as well as column variables (e.g., precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitating water vapor, downward longwave and shortwave radiation). Moderate to large biases exist for cloud condensation nuclei over oceanic areas, cloud variables (e.g., cloud droplet number concentration, cloud liquid and ice water paths, cloud optical depth, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing). These biases indicate a need to improve the model treatments for cloud processes, especially cloud droplets and ice nucleation, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the satellite retrievals. The model simulates well the column abundances of chemical species except for column SO2 but relatively poor for surface concentrations of several species such as CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10. Several reasons could contribute to the underestimation of major chemical species in East Asia including underestimations of anthropogenic emissions and natural dust emissions, uncertainties in the spatial and vertical distributions of the anthropogenic emissions, as well as biases in meteorological, radiative, and cloud predictions. Despite moderate to large biases in the chemical predictions, the model performance is generally consistent with

  19. Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Chen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Online-coupled climate and chemistry models are necessary to realistically represent the interactions between climate variables and chemical species and accurately simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on cloud, precipitation, and radiation. In this Part I of a two-part paper, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the physics package of Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5 are conducted with the default heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization over East Asia for two full years: 2006 and 2011. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed using satellite and surface observations. The model shows an overall acceptable performance for major meteorological variables at the surface and in the boundary layer, as well as column variables (e.g., precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitating water vapor, downward longwave and shortwave radiation. Moderate to large biases exist for cloud condensation nuclei over oceanic areas, cloud variables (e.g., cloud droplet number concentration, cloud liquid and ice water paths, cloud optical depth, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing. These biases indicate a need to improve the model treatments for cloud processes, especially cloud droplets and ice nucleation, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the satellite retrievals. The model simulates well the column abundances of chemical species except for column SO2 but relatively poor for surface concentrations of several species such as CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10. Several reasons could contribute to the underestimation of major chemical species in East Asia including underestimations of anthropogenic emissions and natural dust emissions, uncertainties in the spatial and vertical distributions of the anthropogenic emissions, as well as biases in meteorological, radiative, and cloud predictions. Despite moderate to large biases in the chemical predictions, the model performance is generally consistent with or even better

  20. Land use change and conversion effects on ground water quality trends: An integration of land change modeler in GIS and a new Ground Water Quality Index developed by fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shooshtarian, Mohammad Reza; Dehghani, Mansooreh; Margherita, Ferrante; Gea, Oliveri Conti; Mortezazadeh, Shima

    2018-04-01

    This study aggregated Land Change Modeller (LCM) as a useful model in GIS with an extended Groundwater Quality Index (GWQI) developed by fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making models to investigate the effect of land use change and conversion on groundwater quality being supplied for drinking. The model's performance was examined through an applied study in Shiraz, Iran, in a five year period (2011 to 2015). Four land use maps including urban, industrial, garden, and bare were employed in LCM model and the impact of change in area and their conversion to each other on GWQI changes was analysed. The correlation analysis indicated that increase in the urban land use area and conversion of bare to the residential/industrial land uses, had a relation with water quality decrease. Integration of LCM and GWQI can accurately and logically provide a numerical analysis of the possible impact of land use change and conversion, as one of the influencing factors, on the groundwater quality. Hence, the methodology could be used in urban development planning and management in macro level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.