Factors affecting the accuracy of urine-based biomarkers of BSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruddat Viola

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diseases are untreatable, uniformly fatal degenerative syndromes of the central nervous system that can be transmitted both within as well as between species. The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE epidemic and the emergence of a new human variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD, have profoundly influenced beef production processes as well as blood donation and surgical procedures. Simple, robust and cost effective diagnostic screening and surveillance tools are needed for both the preclinical and clinical stages of TSE disease in order to minimize both the economic costs and zoonotic risk of BSE and to further reduce the risk of secondary vCJD. Objective Urine is well suited as the matrix for an ante-mortem test for TSE diseases because it would permit non-invasive and repeated sampling. In this study urine samples collected from BSE infected and age matched control cattle were screened for the presence of individual proteins that exhibited disease specific changes in abundance in response to BSE infection that might form the basis of such an ante-mortem test. Results Two-dimensional differential gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE was used to identify proteins exhibiting differential abundance in two sets of cattle. The known set consisted of BSE infected steers and age matched controls throughout the course of the disease. The blinded unknown set was composed of BSE infected and control samples of both genders, a wide range of ages and two different breeds. Multivariate analyses of individual protein abundance data generated classifiers comprised of the proteins best able to discriminate between the samples based on disease state, breed, age and gender. Conclusion Despite the presence of confounding factors, the disease specific changes in abundance exhibited by a panel of urine proteins permitted the creation of classifiers able to discriminate between control and infected cattle

EFSA BIOHAZ Panel (EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards), 2014. Scientific Opinion on BSE risk in bovine intestines and mesentery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine; Baggesen, Dorte Lau

infected cattle entering undetected in the food and feed chain yearly. A model named TSEi was developed to estimates the BSE infectious load in tissues from infected animals at different ages and the total yearly infectious load that could enter the food and feed chain in the EU27. In BSE infected cattle...

The Development of a Cultural-Based Educational Program to Enhance Breast Self-Examination (BSE Self-Efficacy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juanita Juanita

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To develop the educational program which is appropriate with Islamic culture in order to enhance BSE self-efficacy of nursing students and thus promote BSE practice. Method: This study is a development research study which is consisting of three phases including: 1 reviewing several existing BSE educational programs; 2 program design based on SCT and Islamic culture; and 3 program validation by three experts. Result: Based on previous studies, the most appropriate theory to enhance self-efficacy was Social Cognitive Theory (SCT because this theory provides several strategies to increase the self-efficacy. Further, the program that used Islamic culture was more appropriate to increase BSE practice among Muslim women. As a result, the newly developed program was developed used SCT and Islamic culture. This program was comprised of four sessions including: 1 exploring Islamic mandate on prevention and individual responsibility in health promotion, and culture-related beliefs toward BSE, 2 health education by conducting lecturing session and watching a video about BSE procedures, 3 BSE training activities including BSE demonstration and return demonstration, 4 follow-up by conducting a meeting. Conclusion: The cultural-based educational program for enhancing BSE self-efficacy and promoting BSE is a program using multifaceted methods. It designed based on a review of the literature from previous studies and were supported by research findings on experimental studies in other population. Keywords: Cultural, Educational program development, Breast self-examination, Self-efficacy.

Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

Science.gov (United States)

Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2017-09-01

We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), or Mad Cow Disease

Science.gov (United States)

... the CDC Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), or Mad Cow Disease Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... spongiform encephalopathy) is a progressive neurological disorder of cattle that results from infection by an unusual transmissible ...

CNS histopathology on bovines with clinical suspicion of BSE in Denmark 2001 to 2011

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Tim Kåre

During2001 to 2011 a total of 195 bovines were submitted to the instutute with clinical suspicion of having BSE. In two cases BSE was confirmed. The most common differential diagnosis was listeriosis, found in 54% of the cases. Listeriosis was characterized by multifocal, necrotizing, non-suppura...

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: is it time to relax BSE-related measures in the context of international trade?

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, D; Adkin, A

2011-04-01

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has presented serious challenges to both the World Organisation for Animal Health and national governments, in defining and implementing appropriate national control measures, and in agreeing trade rules that permit safe trade in cattle and bovine products. Precautionary trade rules were initially necessary, based upon the science of sheep scrapie, but research into BSE later enabled BSE-specific trade rules to be developed. As a result, current rules on trade are underpinned by a sound body of knowledge on BSE. Declining epidemics in most affected countries confirm the appropriateness of current precautions. Nevertheless, risk is primarily dependent on the prevalence of infection with BSE. In the face of low prevalence scenarios, certain precautionary measures in the Terrestrial Animal Health Code may now be considered excessive. A thorough review is therefore deemed appropriate.

Rapid and discriminatory diagnosis of scrapie and BSE in retro-pharyngeal lymph nodes of sheep

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Zijderveld Fred G

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis based on prion detection in lymph nodes of sheep and goats can improve active surveillance for scrapie and, if it were circulating, for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE. With sizes that allow repetitive testing and a location that is easily accessible at slaughter, retropharyngeal lymph nodes (RLN are considered suitable organs for testing. Western blotting (WB of brain homogenates is, in principle, a technique well suited to both detect and discriminate between scrapie and BSE. In this report, WB is developed for rapid diagnosis in RLN and to study biochemical characteristics of PrPres. Results Optimal PrPres detection in RLN by WB was achieved by proper tissue processing, antibody choice and inclusion of a step for PrPresconcentration. The analyses were performed on three different sheep sources. Firstly, in a study with preclinical scrapie cases, WB of RLN from infected sheep of VRQ/VRQ genotype – VRQ represents, respectively, polymorphic PrP amino acids 136, 154, and 171 – allowed a diagnosis 14 mo earlier compared to WB of brain stem. Secondly, samples collected from sheep with confirmed scrapie in the course of passive and active surveillance programmes in the period 2002–2003 yielded positive results depending on genotype: all sheep with genotypes ARH/VRQ, VRQ/VRQ, and ARQ/VRQ scored positive for PrPres, but ARQ/ARQ and ARR/VRQ were not all positive. Thirdly, in an experimental BSE study, detection of PrPres in all 11 ARQ/ARQ sheep, including 7 preclinical cases, was possible. In all instances, WB and IHC were almost as sensitive. Moreover, BSE infection could be discriminated from scrapie infection by faster electrophoretic migration of the PrPres bands. Using dual antibody staining with selected monoclonal antibodies like 12B2 and L42, these differences in migration could be employed for an unequivocal differentiation between BSE and scrapie. With respect to glycosylation of PrPres, BSE cases

Does the Amazon suffer from BSE prevention?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elferink, E.V.; Nonhebel, S.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

In the last decade, large-scale production of soybeans has been a major driver of the enhanced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that these soybeans are mainly exported to the EU to substitute for the BSE related banned meat and bone meal in livestock feed. This strongly suggests a link

Experimental sheep BSE prions generate the vCJD phenotype when serially passaged in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Joiner, Susan; Asante, Emmanuel A; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Brock, Lara; Brandner, Sebastian; Bellworthy, Susan J; Simmons, Marion M; Hope, James; Collinge, John; Wadsworth, Jonathan D F

2018-03-15

The epizootic prion disease of cattle, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), causes variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans following dietary exposure. While it is assumed that all cases of vCJD attributed to a dietary aetiology are related to cattle BSE, sheep and goats are susceptible to experimental oral challenge with cattle BSE prions and farmed animals in the UK were undoubtedly exposed to BSE-contaminated meat and bone meal during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Although no natural field cases of sheep BSE have been identified, it cannot be excluded that some BSE-infected sheep might have entered the European human food chain. Evaluation of the zoonotic potential of sheep BSE prions has been addressed by examining the transmission properties of experimental brain isolates in transgenic mice that express human prion protein, however to-date there have been relatively few studies. Here we report that serial passage of experimental sheep BSE prions in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein with methionine at residue 129 produces the vCJD phenotype that mirrors that seen when the same mice are challenged with vCJD prions from patient brain. These findings are congruent with those reported previously by another laboratory, and thereby strongly reinforce the view that sheep BSE prions could have acted as a causal agent of vCJD within Europe. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France--a spatial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Jarrige, Nathalie; Ducrot, Christian

2005-01-01

A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.

Evidence for more cost-effective surveillance options for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Wall, Ben A; Arnold, Mark E; Radia, Devi; Gilbert, Will; Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Stärk, Katharina Dc; Van Klink, Ed; Guitian, Javier

2017-08-10

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on several alternative strategies involving reducing the number of animals tested for BSE and scrapie in Great Britain and, for scrapie, varying the ratio of sheep sampled in the abattoir to fallen stock (which died on the farm). The most cost-effective strategy modelled for BSE involved reducing the proportion of fallen stock tested from 100% to 75%, producing a cost saving of ca GBP 700,000 per annum. If 50% of fallen stock were tested, a saving of ca GBP 1.4 million per annum could be achieved. However, these reductions are predicted to increase the period before surveillance can detect an outbreak. For scrapie, reducing the proportion of abattoir samples was the most cost-effective strategy modelled, with limited impact on surveillance effectiveness. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

A spatio-temporal analysis of BSE cases born before and after the reinforced feed ban in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Christian; Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Carpenter, Tim

2005-01-01

A spatio-temporal analysis was carried out to see how the risk distribution of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France changed depending on the period of birth. The data concerned the 539 BSE cases born in France after the ban (BAB) of meat and bone meal (MBM) in 1990 and detected between July 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance of BSE was comprehensive. Seventy-two of these cases were born after the reinforced (second) ban (BASB) in 1996, which involved the removal of BSE-risk materials and cadavers from the processing of MBM. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) time and space cluster test was applied, after classifying the cases by trimester and region of birth, BAB or BASB status, and dairy or beef status. Then disease mapping was performed for four successive birth periods, three for the BAB cases (January 1991 through June 1994, July 1994 through June 1995, July 1995 through June 1996), and one for the BASB (July 1996 through October 1998). It was elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The main finding was that the areas with the highest risk of BSE changed largely from one birth period to another; from the west, it reached the east of France for birth cohort 1994-1995 and the southwest for birth cohort 1995-1996. The EMM test identified a peak risk in this region both for dairy and beef cattle in the fall 1995. The spatial distribution of the risk for the BASB cases matched the spatial pattern of risk for the preceding BAB birth cohort quite well; this was in favour of a common origin of the infection of the BAB and BASB cases, despite the complementary control measures.

CNS histopathology on 203 bovines with clinical suspicion of BSE in Denmark 2001 to 2016

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Tim Kåre

2017-01-01

During 2001 to 2016 a total of 203 bovines were submitted to the instutute with clinical suspicion of having BSE. In two cases BSE was confirmed. The most common differential diagnosis was listeriosis, found in 54% of the cases. Listeriosis was characterized by multifocal, necrotizing, non-suppur...

Poly-γ-glutamic acid productivity of Bacillus subtilis BsE1 has positive function in motility and biocontrol against Fusarium graminearum.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Luyao; Wang, Ning; Mi, Dandan; Luo, Yuming; Guo, Jianhua

2017-07-01

In this study, we investigate the relationship between γ-PGA productivity and biocontrol capacity of Bacillus subtilis BsE1; one bacterial isolate displayed 62.14% biocontrol efficacy against Fusarium root rot. The γ-PGA yield assay, motility assay, wheat root colonization assay, and biological control assay were analysed in different γ-PGA yield mutants of BsE1. The pgsB (PGA-synthase-CapB gene) deleted mutant of BsE1 reduced γ-PGA yield and exhibited apparent decline of in vitro motile ability. Deletion of pgsB impaired colonizing capacity of BsE1 on wheat root in 30 days, also lowered biocontrol efficacies from 62.08% (wild type BsE1) to 14.22% in greenhouse experiment against Fusarium root rot. The knockout of pgdS and ggt (genes relate to two γ-PGA degrading enzymes) on BsE1, leads to a considerable improvement in polymer yield and biocontrol efficacy, which attains higher level compared with wild type BsE1. Compared with ΔpgsB mutant, defense genes related to reactive oxygen species (ROS) and phytoalexin expressed changes by notable levels on wheat roots treated with BsE1, demonstrating the functional role γ-PGA plays in biocontrol against Fusarium root rot. γ-PGA is not only important to the motile and plant root colonization ability of BsE1, but also essential to the biological control performed by BsE1 against Fusarium root rot. Our goal in this study is to reveals a new perspective of BCAs screening on bacterial isolates, without good performance during pre-assays of antagonism ability.

BSE in the UK

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Karsten Klint

2004-01-01

assessment by the Southwood Working Party. This lack of transparency ensured that the working party's risk characterization and recommendations were ambiguous and thus hard to interpret. It also meant that uncertainties were not addressed in a satisfactory way. In the recommendations, the attitude...... to uncertainty was implicit rather than explicit. The risk communication based on the report amplified these flaws. Most importantly, it did not address the uncertainty at all. Apparently, the reason for this was fear of overreaction by the public. However, the result was counter-productive, because the risk....... There seemed to be little faith in the public's ability to reach a balanced judgment regarding the uncertainties. In the concluding section of the paper, this analysis is compared with the food standards agency's (FSA's) approach to BSE. The intervention of this agency was seen as one of the more important...

ANALISIS SOAL JENJANG KOGNITIF TAKSONOMI BLOOM REVISI PADA BUKU SEKOLAH ELEKTRONIK (BSE BIOLOGI SMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aa Juhanda

2016-11-01

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemunculan soal jenjang kognitif Bloom Revisi pada Buku Sekolah Elektronik (BSE Biologi SMA. Subjek penelitian adalah 1.650 soal yang terdapat pada BSE Edisi 2009. Instrumen yang digunakan adalah lembar analisis dokumen yang di dalamnya memuat informasi seperti kode soal, soal, dan jenis tingkatan kognitif taksonomi Bloom Revisi. Analisis data dilakukan secara kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rerata persentase kemunculan cukup tinggi diperoleh pada soal yang mengembangkan keterampilan berpikir tingkat rendah (Lower-Order Thinking Skills yaitu soal C1 (mengingat sebesar 46,60% dan C2 (memahami sebesar 47,99%, meskipun untuk C3 (menerapkan persentasenya masih rendah (0,28%. Rerata persentase kemunculan soal yang mengembangkan keterampilan tingkat tinggi (Higher-Order Thinking Skills mulai dari soal C4 (menganalisis sampai dengan C6 (mencipta memiliki rerata persentase yang rendah. Oleh karena itu, kemunculan soal jenjang kognitif Bloom Revisi pada BSE khususnya yang mengembangkan Higher-Order Thinking Skills masih perlu untuk ditingkatkan.

Improvement of goat TSE discriminative diagnosis and susceptibility based assessment of BSE infectivity in goat milk and meat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bossers, A.; Langeveld, J.P.M.

2012-01-01

In light of the known ability of the BSE agent to cross the animal/human species barrier, the evidence establishing the presence of BSE in goat is especially alarming, as it represents a potential risk of food-born contamination to human consumers of goat milk and meat products. The main objective

The BSE Risk of Processing Meat and Bone Meal in Nonruminant Feed: A Quantitative Assessment for the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, de C.J.; Heres, L.

2009-01-01

The total ban on use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in livestock feed has been very successful in reducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) spread, but also implies a waste of high-quality proteins resulting in economic and ecological loss. Now that the BSE epidemic is fading out, a partial

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE, Mad Cow Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. K. Bruckner

1997-07-01

Full Text Available Mad Cow Disease or BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy became a household name internationally and also in South Africa. International hysteria resulted following reports of a possible link between a disease diagnosed in cattle in Britain and a variant of the disease diagnosed in humans after the presumed ingestion or contact with meat from infected cattle. The European Union instituted a ban on the importation of beef from the United Kingdom during March 1996 that had a severe effect on the beef industry in the UK and also resulted in a world wide consumer resistance against beef consumption.

Absence of Evidence for a Causal Link between Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Strain Variant L-BSE and Known Forms of Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease in Human PrP Transgenic Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaumain, Emilie; Quadrio, Isabelle; Herzog, Laetitia; Reine, Fabienne; Rezaei, Human; Andréoletti, Olivier; Laude, Hubert; Perret-Liaudet, Armand; Haïk, Stéphane; Béringue, Vincent

2016-12-01

Prions are proteinaceous pathogens responsible for subacute spongiform encephalopathies in animals and humans. The prions responsible for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are zoonotic agents, causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans. The transfer of prions between species is limited by a species barrier, which is thought to reflect structural incompatibilities between the host cellular prion protein (PrP C ) and the infecting pathological PrP assemblies (PrP Sc ) constituting the prion. A BSE strain variant, designated L-BSE and responsible for atypical, supposedly spontaneous forms of prion diseases in aged cattle, demonstrates zoonotic potential, as evidenced by its capacity to propagate more easily than classical BSE in transgenic mice expressing human PrP C and in nonhuman primates. In humanized mice, L-BSE propagates without any apparent species barrier and shares similar biochemical PrP Sc signatures with the CJD subtype designated MM2-cortical, thus opening the possibility that certain CJD cases classified as sporadic may actually originate from L-type BSE cross-transmission. To address this issue, we compared the biological properties of L-BSE and those of a panel of CJD subtypes representative of the human prion strain diversity using standard strain-typing criteria in human PrP transgenic mice. We found no evidence that L-BSE causes a known form of sporadic CJD. Since the quasi-extinction of classical BSE, atypical BSE forms are the sole BSE variants circulating in cattle worldwide. They are observed in rare cases of old cattle, making them difficult to detect. Extrapolation of our results suggests that L-BSE may propagate in humans as an unrecognized form of CJD, and we urge both the continued utilization of precautionary measures to eliminate these agents from the human food chain and active surveillance for CJD phenotypes in the general population. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

9 CFR 93.436 - Ruminants from regions of minimal risk for BSE.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... each animal's right hip, high on the tail-head (over the junction of the sacral and first cocygeal... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ruminants from regions of minimal risk for BSE. 93.436 Section 93.436 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE...

PCR-RFLP Using BseDI Enzyme for Pork Authentication in Sausage and Nugget Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Erwanto

2011-04-01

Full Text Available A polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR–RFLP using BseDI restriction enzyme had been applied for identifying the presence of pork in processed meat (beef sausage and chicken nugget including before and after frying. Pork sample in various levels (1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, and 25 % was prepared in a mixture with beef and chicken meats and processed for sausage and nugget. The primers CYTb1 and CYTb2 were designed in the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b gene and PCR successfully amplified fragments of 359 bp. To distinguish existence of porcine species, the amplified PCR products of mitochondrial DNA were cut by BseDI restriction enzyme. The result showed pig mitochondrial DNA was cut into 131 and 228 bp fragments. The PCR-RFLP species identification assay yielded excellent results for identification of porcine species. It is a potentially reliable technique for pork detection in animal food processed products for Halal authentication.

SOA and Web Technology for Building BSE Market Map

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Claudiu VINTE

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Visual representation as a map of the stock market data can offer access, in a quick and rele-vant manner for human participants, to the overall state of the market at a given point in time. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of our academic research upon building the market map for Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. We will focus on the algorithm for generat-ing the market map, the system architecture, and web technology employed for capturing the required data and making the map publicly available through the portal www.bursa.ase.ro. Mathematics Subject Classification: 68M14 (Distributed Systems

ESEM-BSE coupled with rapid nano-scratching for micro-physicochemical analysis of marine exposed concrete

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palin, D.; Thijssen, A.; Wiktor, V.; Jonkers, H.M.; Schlangen, H.E.J.G.

2015-01-01

Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) mortar specimens submerged in sea-water were analysed through environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) in back scattered electron (BSE) mode and nano-scratching. Results from both sets of analysis show the presence of distinct phases associated with aragonite,

Factors related to the practice of breast self examination (BSE and Pap smear screening among Malaysian women workers in selected electronics factories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shamsuddin K

2003-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Malaysian Ministry of Health promotes breast self-examination (BSE for all women, and Pap smear screening every three years for all sexually active women ages 20 years and above. The objectives of this paper were to examine the practice of these two screening tests among women production workers in electronics factories, and to identify factors related to practice. Methods This was a cross-sectional survey of women production workers from ten electronics factories. Data was collected by a self-administered questionnaire from a total of 1,720 women. The chi-square test, odds ratio and binomial logistic regression were used in bivariate and multivariate analysis. Results Prevalence rates were 24.4% for BSE once a month, and 18.4% for Pap smear examination within the last three years. Women who were significantly more likely to perform BSE every month were 30 years and older, Malays, with upper secondary education and above, answered the BSE question correctly, and had a Pap smear within the last three years. The proportion of women who had a Pap smear within the last three years were significantly higher among those who were older, married, with young children, on the contraceptive pill or intra-uterine device, had a medical examination within the last five years, answered the Pap smear question correctly, and performed BSE monthly. Conclusion Screening practice rates in this study were low when compared to national rates. Socio-demographic and health care factors significantly associated with screening practice are indicative of barriers which should be further understood so that more effective educational and promotional strategies could be developed.

Development of Neutron Interferometer with Wide-Gapped ''BSE''s for Precision Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seki, Y.; Kitaguchi, M.; Hino, M.; Funahashi, H.; Taketani, K.; Otake, Y.; Shimizu, H. M.

2007-01-01

We are developing large-dimensional cold-neutron interferometers with multilayer mirrors in order to investigate small interactions. In particular Jamin type interferometers composed of wide-gapped 'BSE's, which divide the beam completely, can realize the precision measurement of topological Aharonov-Casher effect. We have made a prototype with 200 μm gapped BSEs and confirmed the spatial separation of its two paths at monochromatic cold-neutron beamline MINE2 on JRR-3M reactor in JAEA

Bankruptcy Risk in IFRS Era. Case Study on BSE Companies

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Valentin BURCA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The path of international accounting convergence is, unanimously accepted by all decision makers of the international financial reporting environment, as being the best solution towards reducing differences in international accounting. The idea of core standards is embraced by our country, too, the proof being the last legislative changes in Romanian accounting framework. This study aims to highlight a small part of the economic consequences of the decision to extend the mandatory use of IFRS standards to the statutory financial statements, also. More exactly we will underline the changes registered at the level of bankruptcy risk measureson a samples of companies listed on BSE.

A country that never had a BSE crisis: consensus and tensions in transforming the Norwegian food system.

Science.gov (United States)

Terragni, Laura

2006-09-01

Norway is often described as a country where the safety of domestically produced food is not questioned and where there is a prevailing consensus about the division of responsibility for food safety. For this reason it was surprising to find that Norwegian consumers trust the safety of their meat less than do their British counterparts. This result is particularly interesting, as Norway is one of the few countries that has never experienced BSE, while Britain has been the country most affected by it. The data discussed in the article suggest that not having to cope with a BSE crisis meant that some problems within the Norwegian food safety system remained unresolved. This in turn has affected patterns of consumer trust. The article is based on the data collected for a comparative study on European consumers' confidence in food safety.

How do US and Canadian consumers value credence attributes associated with beef labels after the North American BSE crisis of 2003?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steiner, Bodo; Yang, Jun

2010-01-01

A consumer survey conducted in 2006 (n = 419), and therefore after the first confirmed bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases in North America in 2003, employs attribute-based choice experiments for a cross-country comparison of consumers' valuation of credence attributes associated with be....... Effective supply-chain responses to consumers' valuation of credence attributes, for example, in the form of labelling, should therefore take consumers' heterogeneity into account.......A consumer survey conducted in 2006 (n = 419), and therefore after the first confirmed bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases in North America in 2003, employs attribute-based choice experiments for a cross-country comparison of consumers' valuation of credence attributes associated with beef...

THE EVALUATION OF BSE BAHASA INGGRIS FOR GRADE VII: WHEN ENGLISH RINGS A BELL

OpenAIRE

Doddy Dwi Wahyuwono; I Gusti Ngurah Aditya Liem Aria; Tandya Anggergian

2017-01-01

Coursebooks are core parts of any curriculum as the unique contributors to content learning (Demir & Ertas, 2014). Currently, in Indonesian curriculum, K13, the government develops coursebooks that can be used by students nationally. The developed coursebooks, Buku Sekolah Elektronik (BSE), vary for different level of education, starting from elementary schools up to senior and vocational high schools. In developing the coursebooks, the government needs to implement the coursebooks to the rea...

Understanding the pattern of the BSE Sensex

Science.gov (United States)

Mukherjee, I.; Chatterjee, Soumya; Giri, A.; Barat, P.

2017-09-01

An attempt is made to understand the pattern of behaviour of the BSE Sensex by analysing the tick-by-tick Sensex data for the years 2006 to 2012 on yearly as well as cumulative basis using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its nonlinear variant Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA). The latter technique ensures that the nonlinear character of the interactions present in the system gets captured in the analysis. The analysis is carried out by constructing vector spaces of varying dimensions. The size of the data set ranges from a minimum of 360,000 for one year to a maximum of 2,520,000 for seven years. In all cases the prices appear to be highly correlated and restricted to a very low dimensional subspace of the original vector space. An external perturbation is added to the system in the form of noise. It is observed that while standard PCA is unable to distinguish the behaviour of the noise-mixed data from that of the original, KPCA clearly identifies the effect of the noise. The exercise is extended in case of daily data of other stock markets and similar results are obtained.

Correlation between the Insertion/Deletion Mutations of Prion Protein Gene and BSE Susceptibility and Milk Performance in Dairy Cows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hu Shen-rong

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Objective To investigate the 23 bp and 12 bp insertion/deletion (indel mutations within the bovine prion protein (PRNP gene in Chinese dairy cows, and to detect the associations of two indel mutations with BSE susceptibility and milk performance.

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

OpenAIRE

Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

2017-01-01

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slanicay Martin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech economy and the euro area, using Bayesian techniques. The advantage of the trend specification proposed is that the trend component and the cyclical component are modelled jointly in a single model. The proposed trend specification is flexible in the sense that smoothness of the trend can be easily modified by different calibration of some of the trend parameters. The results suggest that this method is capable of finding a very reasonable trend in the data. Moreover, comparison of forecast performance reveals that the proposed specification offers more reliable forecasts than the original variant of the model.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of selected measures against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in Switzerland by use of the basic reproduction ratio R0

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schwermer, H.; Brülisauer, F.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Heim, D.

2007-01-01

The effectiveness of two measures against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), the compulsory processing of animal by products to meat and bone mea (MBM) at 133 °C under 3 bars of pressure for 20 minutes in February 1993 and the exclusion offallen stock, heads with eyes and spinal cord of cattle

Characteristics of broadband slow earthquakes explained by a Brownian model

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, S.; Takeo, A.

2017-12-01

Brownian slow earthquake (BSE) model (Ide, 2008; 2010) is a stochastic model for the temporal change of seismic moment release by slow earthquakes, which can be considered as a broadband phenomena including tectonic tremors, low frequency earthquakes, and very low frequency (VLF) earthquakes in the seismological frequency range, and slow slip events in geodetic range. Although the concept of broadband slow earthquake may not have been widely accepted, most of recent observations are consistent with this concept. Then, we review the characteristics of slow earthquakes and how they are explained by BSE model. In BSE model, the characteristic size of slow earthquake source is represented by a random variable, changed by a Gaussian fluctuation added at every time step. The model also includes a time constant, which divides the model behavior into short- and long-time regimes. In nature, the time constant corresponds to the spatial limit of tremor/SSE zone. In the long-time regime, the seismic moment rate is constant, which explains the moment-duration scaling law (Ide et al., 2007). For a shorter duration, the moment rate increases with size, as often observed for VLF earthquakes (Ide et al., 2008). The ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment is constant, as shown in Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico (Maury et al., 2017). The moment rate spectrum has a section of -1 slope, limited by two frequencies corresponding to the above time constant and the time increment of the stochastic process. Such broadband spectra have been observed for slow earthquakes near the trench axis (Kaneko et al., 2017). This spectrum also explains why we can obtain VLF signals by stacking broadband seismograms relative to tremor occurrence (e.g., Takeo et al., 2010; Ide and Yabe, 2014). The fluctuation in BSE model can be non-Gaussian, as far as the variance is finite, as supported by the central limit theorem. Recent observations suggest that tremors and LFEs are spatially characteristic

The Trade-Off between Phosphorus Recycling and Health Protection during the BSE Crisis in Switzerland. A “Disposal Dilemma”

OpenAIRE

Lamprecht, Heinz; Lang, Daniel J.; Binder, Claudia R.; Scholz, Roland W.

2011-01-01

Phosphorus (P) is an essential, finite resource whose geological, economic, and geopolitical accessibility may become critical in the future. Because P losses from agriculture, sewage and waste have serious environmental impacts such as eutrophication, it would be desirable to close P cycles. However, there may arise dilemmas due to trade-offs with other issues. For instance, recycling of animal bones – containing relatively high amounts of P – was prohibited in Switzerland after the BSE cris...

Risk, science and policy: definitional struggles, information management, the media and BSE.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, D

1999-11-01

This article examines the role of definitional struggles in the science policy interface using the example of the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease in the UK. A central contention is that an explicit focus on definition illuminates the processes by which scientific judgements are made, promoted, communicated, assessed and judged and gives an improved picture of policy making. Neglected areas such as the role of secrecy, public relations and the mass media in the science-policy interface are brought into sharper focus as an intrinsic part of the wider operation of definitional struggles. The focus on definitional struggles also sheds light on some current work on risk in social theory. It is argued that the neglect of questions of agency which are central to definitional struggles has led to some theorists presenting risks as inevitable concomitants of technological and cultural developments leaving them in the grip of political quietism.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Strode

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Plunges in the Bombay stock exchange: Characteristics and indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Banerjee, Kinjal; Sharma, Chandradew; Bittu, N.

2017-09-01

We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of eight years from January 2006-March 2014. Using the data of the daily returns of a period of eight years we investigate the financial cross-correlation co-efficients among the sectors of BSE and Price by Earning (PE) ratio of BSE Sensex. We show that the behavior of these quantities during normal periods and during crisis is very different. We show that the PE ratio shows a particular distinctive trend in the approach to a crash of the financial market and can therefore be used as an indicator of an impending catastrophe. We propose that a model of analysis of crashes in a financial market can be built using two parameters: (i) the PE ratio and (ii) the largest eigenvalue of the cross-correlation matrix.

Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

2012-01-01

An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specifi cation search

OpenAIRE

Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

2010-01-01

We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and deterministic trends. In particular, we formulate autoregressive models with stochastic trends components and decide on whether a specific feature of the series, i.e. the underlying level and/or the rate...

Control methods for cattle feedstuffs aimed at prevention of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nešić Ksenija

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In the course of the last decades of the twentieth century, more than 30 new diseases were determined for the first time in history. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or "mad cow disease" is one of them. The disease implies the subacute neurodegenerative transmission of spongiform encephalopathy and it was diagnosed and described for the first time in Great Britain in 1986. A theory has been established that BSE is spread through feedstuffs, more precisely, meat-bone flour which contains infective proteins of ruminants, and legislature has been passed throughout the world with the objective of preventing the entry of meat-bone flour into the food chain. The complete ban of the use of meat-bone flour for all farm animals (with the exception of fish flour for non-ruminants and an adequate thermal treatment in the production of meat-bone flour (133ºC, 3 bar, 20 min are the elements on which the European Union (EU legislature is based. The regulations in our country include a ban on the use of meat-bone flour in cattle feedstuffs and a ban on imports of beef proteins. The implementation of this legislature throughout the world requires the corresponding analytical means. At the present time, there are several available possibilities: optic microscopy, PCR, immunoprobes, spectroscopic methods, and several others which are still being examined for use for this purpose. All the analytical methods are being applied with the objective of controlling the implementation of the current regulations, but also in order to discover possible cross contamination that could take place in factories of animal feedstuffs, during transportation, storage, or on farms, in particular when there are no separate lines for feedstuffs that contains meat-bone flour and others in which even its traces are banned. In order to secure the successful control and prevention of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in our country, as well as to secure the unhindered continuation of

A Trend Model for Alzheimer’s Mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Örjan Hallberg

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In Sweden, mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease have increased since early 90’s.  In this study, we compared rates reported from 2006-2012 with projected trends determined previously and found a good fit.  The objective of this study was to investigate if increased mortality can be modeled as a single exponential function of time lived in a new environment, where the risk of dying from Alzheimer’s disease has been increased.  The results demonstrated that the exponential model can be used to predict future mortalities for different scenarios, and that it can also project age-specific trends.  We conclude that increasing mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease seem caused by an environmental change introduced since the 1990’s.  Since similar trend breaks also have been reported for different cancers, responsible authorities should seriously address this problem to pinpoint causative factors.

The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,

A quantitative assessment of the BSE risk associated with fly ash and slag from the incineration of meat-and-bone meal in a gas-fired power plant in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

2005-01-01

and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete. Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform, encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash......It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 degrees C for at least 2 s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes...

Changing Trends in Modeling Mobility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aarti Munjal

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A phenomenal increase in the number of wireless devices has led to the evolution of several interesting and challenging research problems in opportunistic networks. For example, the random waypoint mobility model, an early, popular effort to model mobility, involves generating random movement patterns. Previous research efforts, however, validate that movement patterns are not random; instead, human mobility is predictable to some extent. Since the performance of a routing protocol in an opportunistic network is greatly improved if the movement patterns of mobile users can be somewhat predicted in advance, several research attempts have been made to understand human mobility. The solutions developed use our understanding of movement patterns to predict the future contact probability for mobile nodes. In this work, we summarize the changing trends in modeling human mobility as random movements to the current research efforts that model human walks in a more predictable manner. Mobility patterns significantly affect the performance of a routing protocol. Thus, the changing trend in modeling mobility has led to several changes in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks. For example, the simplest opportunistic routing protocol forwards a received packet to a randomly selected neighbor. With predictable mobility, however, routing protocols can use the expected contact information between a pair of mobile nodes in making forwarding decisions. In this work, we also describe the previous and current research efforts in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

[Animal feeding and feed legislation after the detection of the first indigenous BSE cases in Germany].

Science.gov (United States)

Kamphues, J

2002-08-01

In Great Britain, even the earliest tangible signs indicating the epidemiologic significance of meat and bone meal in the spreading of BSE soon gave rise to increasingly rigorous legislative measures regulating animal feedstuffs. In 1994 a ban on the feeding of animal proteins to ruminants was implemented throughout the entire EU. But until the first BSE cases were actually confirmed in locally raised cattle (November 2000), feeding practice and legislation more or less in Germany remained unaffected by the efforts undertaken in Great Britain. This situation was suddenly changed on 1 December, 2000, when the so-called "Verfütterungsverbot" was put into effect, a law which drastically extended bans regarding the feedstuffs (including fishmeal and animal fats) as well as the species concerned (all animals used in food production). In 2001 the "contamination" phenomenon (ingredients of animal origin were detected in mixed feeds) became a vital issue for the feed industry; through the media, the subject "feedstuff safety" gained a previously unseen level of public awareness. Those circles concerned with mixed feed production and animal husbandry were increasingly confronted with the consequences of the "Verfütterungsverbot" (availability and pricing of substitute ingredients; the demand for amino acids and inorganic sources of phosphorus; problems finding adequate substitutes for animal fats; poor digestibility of alternative components such as indigenous legumes or vegetable fats in calf diets; lower utilization rate of original phosphorus in mixed feeds with negative consequences for skeletal development). With the conditional approval of fishmeal (except in feeds for ruminants) the situation has eased again to a certain degree; on the EU level there are increasing signals pointing toward a political intention to reinstate the utilization of by-products of slaughtered animals qualified for human consumption (with the exception of fallen/dead animals and specific

SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

2017-09-01

Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

2017-12-01

Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

Congruency within rural social networks as an indicator of interpersonal influence on risk judgments: the great stir caused by BSE in a village in northern Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmkuhl, Markus J

2008-10-01

In the following survey, congruency within a sample of 150 rural social networks ascertained by comparing independently gathered data is used as an indicator of interpersonal influence concerning BSE-related current knowledge and consumption habits. Our findings suggest that friends, relatives and acquaintances mutually orientated each other about what was worth knowing about BSE. Concerning the behavioral dimension of risk judgments, our findings indicate that social networks obtained within the village explored have activated collective resistance against fear. This is explained by the character of the risk source. Positive attitudes towards conventional farming obviously contributed to the social identity of villagers. The devaluation of conventional farming as a source of societal threat by the mass media touched on an integral part of the self-definitions of villagers and activated resistance within their social networks. It is argued that a central point in explaining the role of interpersonal influence in risk judgments is not only the dimension of risk judgments but the character of the risk source. If attitudes concerning a risk source contribute positively to one's identity, the devaluation of the risk source by mass media coverage may enhance the probability of collective resistance against fear.

Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on ...

Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

2001-01-01

Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

Modelling firm heterogeneity with spatial 'trends'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarmiento, C. [North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND (United States). Dept. of Agricultural Business & Applied Economics

2004-04-15

The hypothesis underlying this article is that firm heterogeneity can be captured by spatial characteristics of the firm (similar to the inclusion of a time trend in time series models). The hypothesis is examined in the context of modelling electric generation by coal powered plants in the presence of firm heterogeneity.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, Lisa

2007-01-01

Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

Health communication and consumer behavior on meat in Belgium: from BSE until dioxin.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, W; Viaene, J; Guiot, O

1999-01-01

This article focuses on the impact of mass media meat-health information on consumer perception, attitude, and behavior toward fresh meat in Belgium. In a situation similar to that which occurred in most other European countries, Belgian fresh meat consumption fell considerably during 1995-1999. A multitude of messages linking meat consumption to human health risks were reported by mass media. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) since 1996 and dioxin in 1999 constituted the major issues. Empirical research, conducted in April 1998, revealed the tremendous negative impact of mass media coverage of meat-health issues on consumer risk perception, health concern, and attitude and behavior toward fresh meat. Oppositely, personal communication through butchers had only a small effect on consumer decision-making in this era dominated by alarming meat-health press. Implications are threefold. First, mass media should be aware of its social responsibilities, which include spreading reliable and correct information to the society. This is especially the case as human health risks are involved. Second, the meat industry urgently needs to reorient itself toward quality, safety, and transparency. Finally, future communication dealing with similar crises situations requires cooperation across the meat chain, government, and those who are responsible for public health promotion and communication.

Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

1991-01-01

Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph Kormann

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

Modeling the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in ...

Science.gov (United States)

We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine the influence of long-range pollutant transport on trends in surface level O3 distributions. The WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations were recently performed for the period spanning 1990-2010 to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. Simulated trends in ozone and precursor species concentrations across the U.S. and the northern hemisphere over the past two decades are compared with those inferred from available measurements during this period. Additionally, the decoupled direct method (DDM) in CMAQ is used to estimate the sensitivity of O3 to emissions from different source regions across the northern hemisphere. The seasonal variations in source region contributions to background O3 is then estimated from these sensitivity calculations and will be discussed. A reduced form model combining these source region sensitivities estimated from DDM with the multi-decadal simulations of O3 distributions and emissions trends, is then developed to characterize the changing contributions of different source regions to background O3 levels across North America. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

Individual factors associated with L- and H-type Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in France

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Sala Carole

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cattle with L-type (L-BSE and H-type (H-BSE atypical Bovine Spongiform encephalopathy (BSE were identified in 2003 in Italy and France respectively before being identified in other countries worldwide. As of December 2011, around 60 atypical BSE cases have currently been reported in 13 countries, with over one third in France. While the epidemiology of classical BSE (C-BSE has been widely described, atypical BSEs are still poorly documented, but appear to differ from C-BSE. We analysed the epidemiological characteristics of the 12 cases of L-BSE and 11 cases of H-BSE detected in France from January 2001 to late 2009 and looked for individual risk factors. As L-BSE cases did not appear to be homogeneously distributed throughout the country, two complementary methods were used: spatial analysis and regression modelling. L-BSE and H-BSE were studied separately as both the biochemical properties of their pathological prion protein and their features differ in animal models. Results The median age at detection for L-BSE and H-BSE cases was 12.4 (range 8.4-18.7 and 12.5 (8.3-18.2 years respectively, with no significant difference between the two distributions. However, this median age differed significantly from that of classical BSE (7.0 (range 3.5-15.4 years. A significant geographical cluster was detected for L-BSE. Among animals over eight years of age, we showed that the risk of being detected as a L-BSE case increased with age at death. This was not the case for H-BSE. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to describe the epidemiology of the two types of atypical BSE. The geographical cluster detected for L-BSE could be partly due to the age structure of the background-tested bovine population. Our regression analyses, which adjusted for the effect of age and birth cohort showed an age effect for L-BSE and the descriptive analysis showed a particular age structure in the area where the cluster was

New trends in species distribution modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Predicting Intention Perform Breast Self-Examination: Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action

Science.gov (United States)

Dewi, Triana Kesuma; Zein, Rizqy Amelia

2017-11-26

Objective: The present study aimed to examine the applicability of the theory of reasoned action to explain intention to perform breast self-examination (BSE). Methods: A questionnaire was constructed to collect data. The hypothesis was tested in two steps. First, to assess the strength of the correlation among the constructs of theory of reasoned action (TRA), Pearson’s product moment correlations were applied. Second, multivariate relationships among the constructs were examined by performing hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis. Result: The findings supported the TRA model, explaining 45.8% of the variance in the students’ BSE intention, which was significantly correlated with attitude (r = 0.609, p = 0.000) and subjective norms (r = 0.420, p =0 .000). Conclusion: TRA could be a suitable model to predict BSE intentions . Participants who believed that doing BSE regularly is beneficial for early diagnosis of breast cancer and also believed that their significant referents think that doing BSE would significantly detect breast cancer earlier, were more likely to intend to perform BSE regularly. Therefore, the research findings supported the conclusion that promoting the importance of BSE at the community/social level would enhance individuals to perform BSE routinely. Creative Commons Attribution License

THE EVALUATION OF BSE BAHASA INGGRIS FOR GRADE VII: WHEN ENGLISH RINGS A BELL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doddy Dwi Wahyuwono

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Coursebooks are core parts of any curriculum as the unique contributors to content learning (Demir & Ertas, 2014. Currently, in Indonesian curriculum, K13, the government develops coursebooks that can be used by students nationally. The developed coursebooks, Buku Sekolah Elektronik (BSE, vary for different level of education, starting from elementary schools up to senior and vocational high schools. In developing the coursebooks, the government needs to implement the coursebooks to the real life situation and also evaluate them. In this paper, the researchers try to evaluate a coursebook used in English class for Junior High School students grade VII. The evaluation is done through two ways, the theory-based analysis and checklist-based analysis. The used evaluative theories are made by Cunningsworth and the Checklist is made by Mukundan, Nimehchisalem, and Hajimohammadi. The findings show that the coursebook has met the requirements of learners‘ needs stated in the K13; however, there are still some aspects that can use some further improvement, such as the design, materials‘ authenticity, and so on. Ergo, in corresponding to the findings, the suggestions can be given to two parties, the developers and the teachers. The developers are hoped to take the evaluation results into account as the crucial points for future improvement and the teachers are hoped to not solely depend on the coursebook itself, but creatively look for extra materials.

A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

1988-08-01

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

Trends in hydrodesulfurization catalysis based on realistic surface models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moses, P.G.; Grabow, L.C.; Fernandez Sanchez, Eva

2014-01-01

elementary reactions in HDS of thiophene. These linear correlations are used to develop a simple kinetic model, which qualitatively describes experimental trends in activity. The kinetic model identifies the HS-binding energy as a descriptor of HDS activity. This insight contributes to understanding...... the effect of promotion and structure-activity relationships. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.] © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York....

New Trends in European Companies’ Business Models

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Georgeta ILIE

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Companies constantly reconsider and reconfigure their business models in order to create value and generate growth. They also reassess the price-performance correlation and new levels of capital efficiency. The new business models are frequently needed to provide goods at affordable prices through the adaptation of packaging strategies, pricing strategies, the product itself, and by helping to sustain financially the demand. In the context of current financial and economic difficulties, it reveals the inclusive business models that provide goods and services to poor people and also create employment. The paper tries to emphasize ways in which business models are evolving, and how to determine the right model for companies. In the same time, it also seeks to highlight trends in the development of new business models in the European countries which creates basic economic activities, giving people facing social and economic problems access to products and services that meet their needs.

Modeling international trends in energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, David I.

2012-01-01

I use a stochastic production frontier to model energy efficiency trends in 85 countries over a 37-year period. Differences in energy efficiency across countries are modeled as a stochastic function of explanatory variables and I estimate the model using the cross-section of time-averaged data, so that no structure is imposed on technological change over time. Energy efficiency is measured using a new energy distance function approach. The country using the least energy per unit output, given its mix of outputs and inputs, defines the global production frontier. A country's relative energy efficiency is given by its distance from the frontier—the ratio of its actual energy use to the minimum required energy use, ceteris paribus. Energy efficiency is higher in countries with, inter alia, higher total factor productivity, undervalued currencies, and smaller fossil fuel reserves and it converges over time across countries. Globally, technological change was the most important factor counteracting the energy-use and carbon-emissions increasing effects of economic growth.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

SOME TRENDS IN MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR BIOTECHNOLOGY

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O. M. Klyuchko

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The purpose of present research is to demonstrate some trends of development of modeling methods for biotechnology according to contemporary achievements in science and technique. At the beginning the general approaches are outlined, some types of classifications of modeling methods are observed. The role of mathematic methods modeling for biotechnology in present époque of information computer technologies intensive development is studied and appropriate scheme of interrelation of all these spheres is proposed. Further case studies are suggested: some mathematic models in three different spaces (1D, 2D, 3D models are described for processes in living objects of different levels of hierarchic organization. In course of this the main attention was paid to some processes modeling in neurons as well as in their aggregates of different forms, including glioma cell masses (1D, 2D, 3D brain processes models. Starting from the models that have only theoretical importance for today, we describe at the end a model which application may be important for the practice. The work was done after the analysis of approximately 250 current publications in fields of biotechnology, including the authors’ original works.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Trends of air pollution in Denmark - Normalised by a simple weather index model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiilsholm, S.; Rasmussen, A.

2000-01-01

This report is a part of the Traffic Pool projects on 'Traffic and Environments', 1995-99, financed by the Danish Ministry of Transport. The Traffic Pool projects included five different projects on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality', 'Atmospheric Modelling', 'Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling', 'Smog and ozone' and 'Greenhouse effects and Climate', [Rasmussen, 2000]. This work is a part of the project on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality' with the main objectives to make trend analysis of levels of air pollution from traffic in Denmark. Other participants were from the Road Directory mainly focusing on measurement of traffic and trend analysis of the air quality utilising a nordic model for the air pollution in street canyons called BLB (Beregningsmodel for Luftkvalitet i Byluftgader) [Vejdirektoratet 2000], National Environmental Research Institute (HERI) mainly focusing on. measurements of air pollution and trend analysis with the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) [DMU 2000], and the Copenhagen Environmental Protection Agency mainly focusing on measurements. In this study a more simple statistical model has been developed for trend analysis of the air quality. The model is filtering out the influence of the variations from year to year in the meteorological conditions on the air pollution levels. The weather factors found most important are wind speed, wind direction and mixing height. Measurements of CO, NO and NO 2 from three streets in Copenhagen have been used, these streets are Jagtvej, Bredgade and H. C. Andersen's Boulevard (HCAB). The years 1994-1996 were used for evaluation of the method and annual indexes of air pollution index dependent only on meteorological parameters, called WEATHIX, were calculated for the years 1990-1997 and used for normalisation of the observed air pollution trends. Meteorological data were taken from either the background stations at the H.C. Oersted - building situated close to one of the street stations or the synoptic

Bartlett correction in the stable AR(1) model with intercept and trend

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Giersbergen, N.P.A.

2004-01-01

The Bartlett correction is derived for testing hypotheses about the autoregressive parameter ρ in the stable: (i) AR(1) model; (ii) AR(1) model with intercept; (iii) AR(1) model with intercept and linear trend. The correction is found explicitly as a function of ρ. In the models with deterministic

Evaluation of breast self-examination program using Health Belief Model in female students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitra Moodi

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Breast cancer has been considered as a major health problem in females, because of its high incidence in recent years. Due to the role of breast self-examination (BSE in early diagnosis and prevention of morbidity and mortality rate of breast cancer, promoting student knowledge, capabilities and attitude are required in this regard. This study was conducted to evaluation BSE education in female University students using Health Belief Model. Methods: In this semi-experimental study, 243 female students were selected using multi-stage randomized sampling in 2008. The data were collected by validated and reliable questionnaire (43 questions before intervention and one week after intervention. The intervention program was consisted of one educational session lasting 120 minutes by lecturing and showing a film based on HBM constructs. The obtained data were analyzed by SPSS (version11.5 using statistical paired t-test and ANOVA at the significant level of α = 0.05. Results: 243 female students aged 20.6 ± 2.8 years old were studied. Implementing the educational program resulted in increased knowledge and HBM (perceived susceptibility, severity, benefit and barrier scores in the students (p ≤ 0.01. Significant increases were also observed in knowledge and perceived benefit after the educational program (p ≤ 0.05. ANOVA statistical test showed significant difference in perceived benefit score in students of different universities (p = 0.05. Conclusions: Due to the positive effects of education on increasing knowledge and attitude of university students about BSE, the efficacy of the HBM in BSE education for female students was confirmed.

Reliability and validity of Champion's Health Belief Model Scale for breast cancer screening among Malaysian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Parsa, P; Kandiah, M; Mohd Nasir, M T; Hejar, A R; Nor Afiah, M Z

2008-11-01

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Malaysian women, and the use of breast self-examination (BSE), clinical breast examination (CBE) and mammography remain low in Malaysia. Therefore, there is a need to develop a valid and reliable tool to measure the beliefs that influence breast cancer screening practices. The Champion's Health Belief Model Scale (CHBMS) is a valid and reliable tool to measure beliefs about breast cancer and screening methods in the Western culture. The purpose of this study was to translate the use of CHBMS into the Malaysian context and validate the scale among Malaysian women. A random sample of 425 women teachers was taken from 24 secondary schools in Selangor state, Malaysia. The CHBMS was translated into the Malay language, validated by an expert's panel, back translated, and pretested. Analyses included descriptive statistics of all the study variables, reliability estimates, and construct validity using factor analysis. The mean age of the respondents was 37.2 (standard deviation 7.1) years. Factor analysis yielded ten factors for BSE with eigenvalue greater than 1 (four factors more than the original): confidence 1 (ability to differentiate normal and abnormal changes in the breasts), barriers to BSE, susceptibility for breast cancer, benefits of BSE, health motivation 1 (general health), seriousness 1 (fear of breast cancer), confidence 2 (ability to detect size of lumps), seriousness 2 (fear of long-term effects of breast cancer), health motivation 2 (preventive health practice), and confidence 3 (ability to perform BSE correctly). For CBE and mammography scales, seven factors each were identified. Factors for CBE scale include susceptibility, health motivation 1, benefits of CBE, seriousness 1, barriers of CBE, seriousness 2 and health motivation 2. For mammography the scale includes benefits of mammography, susceptibility, health motivation 1, seriousness 1, barriers to mammography seriousness 2 and health

Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

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Nigatu Tilahun H

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

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Suhartono Suhartono

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Stability constants of the fluoride complexes of actinides in aqueous solution and their correlation with fundamental properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaudhuri, N.K.; Sawant, R.M.

1997-09-01

Stability constants of the fluoride complexes of the actinides in different oxidation states measured by potentiometric method using fluoride ion selective electrode have been presented. Procedure and precautions required to overcome certain difficulties particular to actinide ions have been discussed. Literature data from various sources have been compiled. In order to have a reasonable comparison the stability constant (β 1 ) values obtained in diverse ionic strength media are converted to thermodynamic stability constant, β 1 0 , using Davies equation (a modification of Debye-Huckel equation). A correlation of the β 1 0 values with the fundamental properties of the actinide ions using various models available in the literature has been attempted. A semiempirical relation recently developed by Brown, Sylva and Ellis (BSE equation) appears to be most suitable. Using the values of ionic radii and best available values of the stability constants of a large number of metal ions from recent compilations a comparative study of the various models or relations available in the literature has been tried. For metal ions in general, the best correlation is obtained with the BSE equation. In an attempt to accommodate the unusual trend in the stability constants of the tetravalent actinides a modification in a parameter of the BSE equation has been proposed. Good agreement between the theoretically calculated and experimentally determined values for actinides in different oxidation states is then obtained in most of the cases. (author)

Distinct transmissibility features of TSE sources derived from ruminant prion diseases by the oral route in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein.

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Jean-Noël Arsac

Full Text Available Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a misfolded form of host-encoded prion protein (PrP. Some of them, such as classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle (BSE, transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME, kuru and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, are acquired by the oral route exposure to infected tissues. We investigated the possible transmission by the oral route of a panel of strains derived from ruminant prion diseases in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein (A136R154Q171 under the control of the neuron-specific enolase promoter. Sources derived from Nor98, CH1641 or 87V scrapie sources, as well as sources derived from L-type BSE or cattle-passaged TME, failed to transmit by the oral route, whereas those derived from classical BSE and classical scrapie were successfully transmitted. Apart from a possible effect of passage history of the TSE agent in the inocula, this implied the occurrence of subtle molecular changes in the protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres following oral transmission that can raises concerns about our ability to correctly identify sheep that might be orally infected by the BSE agent in the field. Our results provide proof of principle that transgenic mouse models can be used to examine the transmissibility of TSE agents by the oral route, providing novel insights regarding the pathogenesis of prion diseases.

Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jirong

2017-12-01

The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Light tetraquarks and mesons in a DSE/BSE approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heupel, Walter

2015-07-01

Bound states and their properties are an inherent non-perturbative feature of QCD. Moreover, QCD is a confining theory so that instead of the elementary quarks and gluons themselves, only colourless bound states formed of these elementary particles are directly measurable. One non-perturbative framework to describe QCD are the Dyson-Schwinger equations, which interrelate all Green functions of the theory by an infinite tower of integral equations, and the corresponding Bethe-Salpeter equations that define the bound states of the theory. To reduce the infinite tower to a tractable form, the equations have to be truncated. In this thesis the so-called rainbow ladder' truncation was used that reduces the quark-gluon vertex to the bare vertex and replaces the gluon by an effective modeled one so that the only Green function that has to be solved, is the quark propagator. This truncation preserves the important axial Ward-Takahashi-identity and the Gell-Mann-Oakes-Renner relation. For the effective gluon the Maris-Tandy interaction was used, modeled to reproduce the pion mass and decay constant. Starting from this well-established truncation, the four-body tetraquark Bethe-Salpeter equation was constructed. To solve the tetraquark Bethe-Salpeter equation, a fully covariant basis for the tetraquark amplitude is necessary. Additionally, the basis has to reflect the quantum numbers of the tetraquark and has to fulfill the Pauli principle. The construction of such a basis was performed for all parts of the amplitude: The Dirac-tensor structure, the phase space, the colour and the flavour tensor structure. Upon solving the tetraquark bound state equation, dynamical pion poles in the tetraquark amplitude phase space appeared, reflecting the actual physics that determines the tetraquark: The tetraquark is dominated by two-body correlations which manifest themselves as poles in the phase space. It is especially noteworthy that these two-body correlations in form of poles

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

OpenAIRE

Y. Wang; P. Konopka; Y. Liu; H. Chen; R. Müller; F. Plöger; M. Riese; Z. Cai; D. Lü

2012-01-01

Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photoche...

Understanding Evapotranspiration Trends and their Driving Mechanisms: An investigation across CONUS based on numerical modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Parr, D.; Wang, G.; Fu, C.

2015-12-01

As shown by climate models, increasing global temperatures and enhanced greenhouse gas concentration such as CO2 have had major effects on the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and the surface energy budget, in particular, on evapotranspiration (ET). ET has significant decadal variations whether it be regionally or globally and variations of ET have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. A number of recent studies have found a global increase in annual mean ET around 7mm per year per decade from about 1982 to the late 1990s. These results correspond with what is expected from an intensification of the hydrological cycle. However, the increasing ET trend did not continue after 1998 and from 1998-2008 this global trend was replaced with a decreasing trend of similar magnitude. This study uses numerical modeling to investigate if similar changing ET trends emerge in the continental U.S and part of northern Mexico. After validating model simulated evaporative fluxes and comparing spatial patterns to the aforementioned studies, various changing trends of different signs are identified across the U.S., and specific regions with strong signals of change are chosen for further examination with the purpose of identifying the root causes of these changing trends and which variables are most influential towards change. Experimental simulations conducted to isolate the most influential factors towards ET reveal that precipitation amount as well as its characteristics have the greatest impact on the ET trends discovered, with other factors like wind and air temperatures displaying less influence over inter-annual trends. This study helps better understand terrestrial ET and it's interactions which will help facilitate better predictions of change in surface climate such as heatwaves and droughts as well as impacts on water resources.

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

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Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

MOCK OBSERVATIONS OF BLUE STRAGGLERS IN GLOBULAR CLUSTER MODELS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sills, Alison; Glebbeek, Evert; Chatterjee, Sourav; Rasio, Frederic A.

2013-01-01

We created artificial color-magnitude diagrams of Monte Carlo dynamical models of globular clusters and then used observational methods to determine the number of blue stragglers in those clusters. We compared these blue stragglers to various cluster properties, mimicking work that has been done for blue stragglers in Milky Way globular clusters to determine the dominant formation mechanism(s) of this unusual stellar population. We find that a mass-based prescription for selecting blue stragglers will select approximately twice as many blue stragglers than a selection criterion that was developed for observations of real clusters. However, the two numbers of blue stragglers are well-correlated, so either selection criterion can be used to characterize the blue straggler population of a cluster. We confirm previous results that the simplified prescription for the evolution of a collision or merger product in the BSE code overestimates their lifetimes. We show that our model blue stragglers follow similar trends with cluster properties (core mass, binary fraction, total mass, collision rate) as the true Milky Way blue stragglers as long as we restrict ourselves to model clusters with an initial binary fraction higher than 5%. We also show that, in contrast to earlier work, the number of blue stragglers in the cluster core does have a weak dependence on the collisional parameter Γ in both our models and in Milky Way globular clusters

Modelling impacts of temperature, and acidifying and eutrophying deposition on DOC trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sawicka, Kasia; Rowe, Ed; Evans, Chris; Monteith, Don; Vanguelova, Elena; Wade, Andrew; Clark, Joanna

2017-04-01

Surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in large parts of the northern hemisphere have risen over the past three decades, raising concern about enhanced contributions of carbon to the atmosphere and seas and oceans. The effect of declining acid deposition has been identified as a key control on DOC trends in soil and surface waters, since pH and ionic strength affect sorption and desorption of DOC. However, since DOC is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists regarding the extent to the relative importance of different drivers that affect these upward trends. We ran the dynamic model MADOC (Model of Acidity and Soil Organic Carbon) for a range of UK soils (podzols, gleysols and peatland), for which the time-series were available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20 years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to elevate the DOC recovery trajectory significantly. The second most influential cause of rising DOC in the model simulations was N deposition in ecosystems that are N-limited and respond with stimulated plant growth. Although non-marine chloride deposition made some contribution to acidification and recovery, it was not amongst the main drivers of DOC change. Warming had almost no effect on modelled historic DOC trends, but may prove to be a significant driver of DOC in future via its influence

Why are models unable to reproduce multi-decadal trends in lower tropospheric baseline ozone levels?

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, L.; Liu, J.; Mickley, L. J.; Strahan, S. E.; Steenrod, S.

2017-12-01

Assessments of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing rely on accurate model simulations. Parrish et al (2014) found that three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) overestimate present-day O3 mixing ratios and capture only 50% of the observed O3 increase over the last five decades at 12 baseline sites in the northern mid-latitudes, indicating large uncertainties in our understanding of the ozone trends and their implications for radiative forcing. Here we present comparisons of outputs from two chemical transport models (CTMs) - GEOS-Chem and the Global Modeling Initiative model - with O3 observations from the same sites and from the global ozonesonde network. Both CTMs are driven by reanalysis meteorological data (MERRA or MERRA2) and thus are expected to be different in atmospheric transport processes relative to those freely running CCMs. We test whether recent model developments leading to more active ozone chemistry affect the computed ozone sensitivity to perturbations in emissions. Preliminary results suggest these CTMs can reproduce present-day ozone levels but fail to capture the multi-decadal trend since 1980. Both models yield widespread overpredictions of free tropospheric ozone in the 1980s. Sensitivity studies in GEOS-Chem suggest that the model estimate of natural background ozone is too high. We discuss factors that contribute to the variability and trends of tropospheric ozone over the last 30 years, with a focus on intermodel differences in spatial resolution and in the representation of stratospheric chemistry, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, halogen chemistry, and biogenic VOC emissions and chemistry. We also discuss uncertainty in the historical emission inventories used in models, and how these affect the simulated ozone trends.

The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

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Gabriela OPAIT

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

Development and evaluation of multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends in multiple domains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Attema, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Meeuwissen, E.

2015-01-01

This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and spatial analysis of the feed industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Mathilde; Abrial, David; Jarrige, Nathalie; Rican, Stéphane; Garrido, Myriam; Calavas, Didier; Ducrot, Christian

2007-06-01

In France, despite the ban of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was detected in hundreds of cattle born after the ban. To study the role of MBM, animal fat, and dicalcium phosphate on the risk for BSE after the feed ban, we conducted a spatial analysis of the feed industry. We used data from 629 BSE cases as well as data on use of each byproduct and market area of the feed factories. We mapped risk for BSE in 951 areas supplied by the same factories and connection with use of byproducts. A disease map of BSE with covariates was built with the hierarchical Bayesian modeling methods, based on Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. Only use of MBM was spatially linked to risk for BSE, which highlights cross-contamination as the most probable source of infection after the feed ban.

Non-existence of Steady State Equilibrium in the Neoclassical Growth Model with a Longevity Trend

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem

of steady state equilibrium when considering the empirically observed trend in longevity. We extend a standard continuous time overlapping generations model by a longevity trend and are thereby able to study the properties of mortality-driven population growth. This turns out to be exceedingly complicated...

Interactive Gaussian Graphical Models for Discovering Depth Trends in ChemCam Data

Science.gov (United States)

Oyen, D. A.; Komurlu, C.; Lanza, N. L.

2018-04-01

Interactive Gaussian graphical models discover surface compositional features on rocks in ChemCam targets. Our approach visualizes shot-to-shot relationships among LIBS observations, and identifies the wavelengths involved in the trend.

Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

Trends in development of innovative business models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krstić Milan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The companies doing business in global markets are now compelled to do it in conditions of permanent and turbulent changes. In order to succeed within that kind of environment in the long run, they are to innovate and to continuously strengthen their own innovative strength. Consideration of gaining its own innovative strength becomes top agenda issue of strategic companies. To that purpose, this paper presents the shortened results of a desktop theoretical research that has been undertaken to improve the innovative power of companies. The survey and subsequent analysis identified relevant innovative business models (IBM of companies, some of which briefly presented (CANVAS, SHARE, and WOIS BLUE OCEAN Strategy, which now form the current IBM trend.

Modelling spatial trends in sorghum breeding field trials using a two-dimensional P-spline mixed model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.G. Velazco (Julio G.); M.X. Rodríguez-Álvarez (María Xosé); M.P. Boer (Martin); D.R. Jordan (David R.); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul); M. Malosetti (Marcos); F. van Eeuwijk (Fred)

2017-01-01

markdownabstract_Key message: A flexible and user-friendly spatial method called SpATS performed comparably to more elaborate and trial-specific spatial models in a series of sorghum breeding trials._ __Abstract:__ Adjustment for spatial trends in plant breeding field trials is essential for

Exploration of barriers to breast-self examination among urban women in Shah Alam, Malaysia: a cross sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dubai, Sami Abdo Radman; Ganasegeran, Kurubaran; Alabsi, Aied M; Abdul Manaf, Mohd Rizal; Ijaz, Sharea; Kassim, Saba

2012-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Malaysia. Barriers for practicing breast self examination (BSE) await exploration. To assess the practice of BSE and its correlated factors and particularly barriers amongst urban women in Malaysia. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 222 Malaysian women using a self-administered questionnaire. The mean (SD) age was 28.5 (±9.2) years, 59.0% were university graduates. Of the total, 81.1% were aware of breast cancer and 55% practiced BSE. Amongst 45% of respondents who did not practice BSE, 79.8% did not know how to do it, 60.6% feared being diagnosed with breast cancer, 59.6% were worried about detecting breast cancer, 22% reported that they should not touch their bodies, 44% and 28% reported BSE is embarrassing or unpleasant, 29% time consuming, 22% thought they would never have breast cancer or it is ineffective and finally 20% perceived BSE as unimportant. Logistic regression modeling showed that respondents aged ≥45 years, being Malay, married and having a high education level were more likely to practice BSE (pcultural, perception and environmental factors were identified as barriers. BSE practice was associated significantly with socio-demographic factors and socioeconomic status.

Predictors affecting breast self-examination practice among undergraduate female students in Klang Valley, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtari-Zavare, Mehrnoosh; Lattif, Latiffah A; Juni, Muhamad Hanafiah; Md Said, Salmiah; Ismail, Irmi Zarina

2015-12-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide, including Malaysia. In developing countries, predictors affecting breast self-examination (BSE) practice are different. This cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of BSE practice and the predictors affecting BSE practice among undergraduate female students in Klang Valley, Malaysia. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 820 female undergraduate students to assess the BSE performance and related determinants of BSE practice in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Data were collected via a self-administered structured questionnaire that was developed for this study. The mean age of the respondents was 21.7 ± 1.2 years old. Most of them were single (96.8%), Malay (91.9%) and 19.6% of the participants performed BSE regularly. Multivariate logistic regression modeling revealed that BSE performance was more likely among women who have checked their breast with a doctor (odds ratio = 2.04, P = 0.00), and women who have personal history of breast disease (odds ratio = 4.43, P = 0.03). The findings showed a low BSE practice rate among young Malaysian women. Hence, the community's breast health awareness is needed to improve breast cancer prevention among young Malaysian women. © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Modeling pitting growth data and predicting degradation trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viglasky, T.; Awad, R.; Zeng, Z.; Riznic, J.

2007-01-01

A non-statistical modeling approach to predict material degradation is presented in this paper. In this approach, the original data series is processed using Accumulated Generating Operation (AGO). With the aid of the AGO which weakens the random fluctuation embedded in the data series, an approximately exponential curve is established. The generated data series described by the exponential curve is then modeled by a differential equation. The coefficients of the differential equation can be deduced by approximate difference formula based on least-squares algorithm. By solving the differential equation and processing an inverse AGO, a predictive model can be obtained. As this approach is not established on the basis of statistics, the prediction can be performed with a limited amount of data. Implementation of this approach is demonstrated by predicting the pitting growth rate in specimens and wear trend in steam generator tubes. The analysis results indicate that this approach provides a powerful tool with reasonable precision to predict material degradation. (author)

Modelling spatial trends in sorghum breeding field trials using a two-dimensional P-spline mixed model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velazco, Julio G.; Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Boer, Martin P.; Jordan, David R.; Eilers, Paul H.C.; Malosetti, Marcos; Eeuwijk, van Fred A.

2017-01-01

Key message: A flexible and user-friendly spatial method called SpATS performed comparably to more elaborate and trial-specific spatial models in a series of sorghum breeding trials. Abstract: Adjustment for spatial trends in plant breeding field trials is essential for efficient evaluation and

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

2014-01-01

We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry F. Tjiputra

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

Psychosocial predictors of breast self-examination behavior among female students: an application of the health belief model using logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Didarloo, Alireza; Nabilou, Bahram; Khalkhali, Hamid Reza

2017-11-03

Breast cancer is a life-threatening condition affecting women around the world. The early detection of breast lumps using a breast self-examination (BSE) is important for the prevention and control of this disease. The aim of this study was to examine BSE behavior and its predictive factors among female university students using the Health Belief Model (HBM). This investigation was a cross-sectional survey carried out with 334 female students at Urmia University of Medical Sciences in the northwest of Iran. To collect the necessary data, researchers applied a valid and reliable three-part questionnaire. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a chi-square test, in addition to multivariate logistic regression statistics in SPSS software version 16.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The results indicated that 82 of the 334 participants (24.6%) reported practicing BSEs. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that high perceived severity [OR = 2.38, 95% CI = (1.02-5.54)], high perceived benefits [OR = 1.94, 95% CI = (1.09-3.46)], and high perceived self-efficacy [OR = 13.15, 95% CI = (3.64-47.51)] were better predictors of BSE behavior (P < 0.05) than low perceived severity, benefits, and self-efficacy. The findings also showed that a high level of knowledge compared to a low level of knowledge [OR = 5.51, 95% CI = (1.79-16.86)] and academic undergraduate and graduate degrees compared to doctoral degrees [OR = 2.90, 95% CI = (1.42-5.92)] of the participants were predictors of BSE performance (P < 0.05). The study revealed that the HBM constructs are able to predict BSE behavior. Among these constructs, self-efficacy was the most important predictor of the behavior. Interventions based on the constructs of perceived self-efficacy, benefits, and severity are recommended for increasing women's regular screening for breast cancer.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: the effect of oral exposure dose on attack rate and incubation period in cattle ? an update

OpenAIRE

Konold, Timm; Arnold, Mark E; Austin, Anthony R; Cawthraw, Saira; Hawkins, Steve AC; Stack, Michael J; Simmons, Marion M; Sayers, A Robin; Dawson, Michael; Wilesmith, John W; Wells, Gerald AH

2012-01-01

Abstract Background To provide information on dose–response and aid in modelling the exposure dynamics of the BSE epidemic in the United Kingdom groups of cattle were exposed orally to a range of different doses of brainstem homogenate of known infectious titre from clinical cases of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Interim data from this study was published in 2007. This communication documents additional BSE cases, which occurred subsequently, examines possible influence of...

Report on Spending Trends Highlights Inequities in Model for Financing Colleges

Science.gov (United States)

Blumenstyk, Goldie

2009-01-01

An analysis of spending trends that is designed to discourage policy makers' focus on finding new revenue rather than reining in spending suggests that the model for financing colleges has reinforced educational inequities and failed to increase the rate at which students graduate. According to the analysis, "serious fault lines" in the current…

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Trends in food safety standards and regulation implications for developing countries

OpenAIRE

Caswell, Julie A.

2003-01-01

"Food safety is affected by the decisions of producers, processors, distributors, food service operators, and consumers, as well as by government regulations. In developed countries, the demand for higher levels of food safety has led to the implementation of regulatory programs that address more types of safety-related attributes (such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), microbial pathogens, environmental contaminants, and animal drug and pesticide residues) and impose stricter standa...

An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

2018-03-01

The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaichun Zhu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

Bojesodok-eum, a Herbal Prescription, Ameliorates Acute Inflammation in Association with the Inhibition of NF-κB-Mediated Nitric Oxide and ProInflammatory Cytokine Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kook Ho Sohn

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Bojesodok-eum (BSE is a herbal prescription consisting of Coptidis Rhizoma and Scutellariae Radix as main components. This paper investigated the effects of BSE on the induction of nitric oxide (NO, prostaglandin E2 (PGE2, and proinflammatory cytokines that are caused by lipopolysaccharide (LPS in murine macrophage cell line and on the paw edema formation in animals. Administration of BSE (0.3 g/kg and 1 g/kg in rats significantly inhibited carrageenan-induced paw edema formation, as did dexamethasone, an anti-inflammatory positive control drug. In cell model, treatment of BSE decreased the production of NO and PGE2 in RAW264.7 cells stimulated by LPS. BSE also inhibited the expression of iNOS and COX-2 protein as well as COX activity in a concentration-dependent manner. Consistently, BSE suppressed the ability of LPS to produce TNF-α, interleukin-1β, and interleukin-6. LPS treatment induced nuclear NF-κB level and I-κBα phosphorylation, which were inhibited subsequent treatment of BSE, suggesting its repression of LPS-inducible NF-κB activation. BSE abrogated the induction of NO, PGE2, and proinflammatory cytokines, as well as iNOS and COX-2 protein expression in RAW264.7 cells stimulated by LPS as mediated with NF-κB inhibition.

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃ during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Colette

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i anthropogenic emissions, (ii chemical boundary conditions, and (iii meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models. The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology, (iv a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model

Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Congdon, Peter

2014-12-20

Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

Analyzing Multidecadal Trends in Cloudiness Over the Subtropical Andes Mountains of South America Using a Regional Climate Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Satellite-based products indicate that many parts of South America have been experiencing increases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and corresponding decreases in cloudiness over the last few decades, with the strongest trends occurring in the subtropical Andes Mountains - an area that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on glacial melt for dry-season runoff. Changes in cloudiness may be contributing to increases in atmospheric temperature, thereby raising the freezing level height (FLH) - a critical geophysical parameter. Yet these trends are only partially captured in reanalysis products, while AMIP climate models generally show no significant trend in OLR over this timeframe, making it difficult to determine the underlying drivers. Therefore, controlled numerical experiments with a regional climate model are performed in order to investigate drivers of the observed OLR and cloudiness trends. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here because it offers several advantages over global models, including higher resolution - a critical asset in areas of complex topography - as well as flexible physics, parameterization, and data assimilation capabilities. It is likely that changes in the mean states and meridional gradients of SSTs in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are driving regional trends in clouds. A series of lower boundary manipulations are performed with WRF to determine to what extent changes in SSTs influence regional OLR.

The Effect of Breast Cancer Fatalism on Breast Cancer Awareness Among Turkish Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Altintas, Hulya Kulakci; Ayyildiz, Tulay Kuzlu; Veren, Funda; Topan, Aysel Kose

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of breast cancer fatalism and other factors on breast cancer awareness among Turkish women. This cross-sectional and comparative descriptive study was conducted with 894 women. Data were collected by Personal Information Form, Powe Fatalism Inventory and Champion's Health Belief Model Scale. Seriousness, health motivation, BSE benefits and BSE self-efficacy perceptions of the women were moderate, and susceptibility and BSE barriers perceptions were low. It was determined that awareness of breast cancer of the women was affected by breast cancer fatalism, age, education level, employment status, marital status, family type, economic status, social assurance, menopause status, family history of cancer, family history of breast cancer, knowledge on BSE, source of information on BSE, performing of BSE, frequency of BSE performing, having a problem with breast, having a breast examination in hospital, feeling during breast examination by healthcare professional, sex of healthcare professional for breast examination and their health beliefs (p breast cancer of the women was affected by breast cancer fatalism. In providing breast cancer early diagnosis behaviors, it is recommended to evaluate fatalism perceptions and health beliefs of the women and to arrange educational programs for this purpose.

Recent trends in social systems quantitative theories and quantitative models

CERN Document Server

Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Soitu, Daniela-Tatiana; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2017-01-01

The papers collected in this volume focus on new perspectives on individuals, society, and science, specifically in the field of socio-economic systems. The book is the result of a scientific collaboration among experts from “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iaşi (Romania), “G. d’Annunzio” University of Chieti-Pescara (Italy), "University of Defence" of Brno (Czech Republic), and "Pablo de Olavide" University of Sevilla (Spain). The heterogeneity of the contributions presented in this volume reflects the variety and complexity of social phenomena. The book is divided in four Sections as follows. The first Section deals with recent trends in social decisions. Specifically, it aims to understand which are the driving forces of social decisions. The second Section focuses on the social and public sphere. Indeed, it is oriented on recent developments in social systems and control. Trends in quantitative theories and models are described in Section 3, where many new formal, mathematical-statistical to...

Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.

Science.gov (United States)

McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N

2011-04-01

Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance

New Trends in Model Coupling Theory, Numerics and Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coquel, F.; Godlewski, E.; Herard, J. M.; Segre, J.

2010-01-01

This special issue comprises selected papers from the workshop New Trends in Model Coupling, Theory, Numerics and Applications (NTMC'09) which took place in Paris, September 2 - 4, 2009. The research of optimal technological solutions in a large amount of industrial systems requires to perform numerical simulations of complex phenomena which are often characterized by the coupling of models related to various space and/or time scales. Thus, the so-called multi-scale modelling has been a thriving scientific activity which connects applied mathematics and other disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology or even social sciences. To illustrate the variety of fields concerned by the natural occurrence of model coupling we may quote: meteorology where it is required to take into account several turbulence scales or the interaction between oceans and atmosphere, but also regional models in a global description, solid mechanics where a thorough understanding of complex phenomena such as propagation of cracks needs to couple various models from the atomistic level to the macroscopic level; plasma physics for fusion energy for instance where dense plasmas and collisionless plasma coexist; multiphase fluid dynamics when several types of flow corresponding to several types of models are present simultaneously in complex circuits; social behaviour analysis with interaction between individual actions and collective behaviour. (authors)

A cross-lagged model of the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayalon, Liat; Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Roziner, Ilan

2016-05-01

The study was designed to evaluate the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning using a cross-lagged model. The study was based on the psychosocial questionnaire of the Health and Retirement Study, which is a U.S. nationally representative survey of individuals over the age of 50 and their spouses of any age. A total of 1,225 respondents had complete data on the loneliness measure in 2004 and at least in 1 of the subsequent waves (e.g., 2008, 2012) and were maintained for analysis. A cross-lagged model was estimated to examine the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning, controlling for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, number of medical conditions, and the number of close social relationships. The model had adequate fit indices: χ2(860, N = 1,225) = 1,401.54, p memory functioning was nonsignificant, B(SE) = -.11(.08), p = .15, whereas the lagged effect of memory functioning on loneliness was significant, B(SE) = -.06(.02), p = .01, indicating that lower levels of memory functioning precede higher levels of loneliness 4 years afterward. Further research is required to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the temporal association between reduced memory functioning and increased loneliness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A transport-based model of material trends in nonproportionality of scintillators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qi; Grim, Joel Q.; Williams, R. T.; Bizarri, G. A.; Moses, W. W.

2011-01-01

Electron-hole pairs created by the passage of a high-energy electron in a scintillator radiation detector find themselves in a very high radial concentration gradient of the primary electron track. Since nonlinear quenching that is generally regarded to be at the root of nonproportional response depends on the fourth or sixth power of the track radius in a cylindrical track model, radial diffusion of charge carriers and excitons on the ∼10 picosecond duration typical of nonlinear quenching can compete with and thereby modify that quenching. We use a numerical model of transport and nonlinear quenching to examine trends affecting local light yield versus excitation density as a function of charge carrier and exciton diffusion coefficients. Four trends are found: (1) nonlinear quenching associated with the universal 'roll-off' of local light yield versus dE/dx is a function of the lesser of mobilities μ e and μ h or of D EXC as appropriate, spanning a broad range of scintillators and semiconductor detectors; (2) when μ e ≅μ h , excitons dominate free carriers in transport, the corresponding reduction of scattering by charged defects and optical phonons increases diffusion out of the track in competition with nonlinear quenching, and a rise in proportionality is expected; (3) when μ h e as in halide scintillators with hole self-trapping, the branching between free carriers and excitons varies strongly along the track, leading to a 'hump' in local light yield versus dE/dx; (4) anisotropic mobility can promote charge separation along orthogonal axes and leads to a characteristic shift of the 'hump' in halide local light yield. Trends 1 and 2 have been combined in a quantitative model of nonlinear local light yield which is predictive of empirical nonproportionality for a wide range of oxide and semiconductor radiation detector materials where band mass or mobility data are the determinative material parameters.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to

Model of high-tech businesses management under the trends of explicit and implicit knowledge markets: classification and business model

OpenAIRE

Guzel Isayevna Gumerova; Elmira Shamilevna Shaimieva

2015-01-01

Objective to define the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo to elaborate classification of hightech businesses to elaborate the business model for hightech business management. Methods general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical cognition. Results the research presents a business model of hightech businesses management basing on the trends of explicit and explicit knowledge market with the dominating implicit knowledge market classification of hightech business...

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Mismatch between observed and modeled trends in dissolved upper-ocean oxygen over the last 50 yr

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Stramma

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 yr. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 yr, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is –0.066 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO₂-induced climate change. However, the pattern correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 yr. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO₂-induced enhancement of the C : N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.027 to –0.047 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for climatological wind forcing, with a much larger range of –0.083 to +0.027 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for different initializations of sensitivity runs with reanalysis wind forcing. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

Science.gov (United States)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

Grey GM(1,1) Model with Function-Transfer Method for Wear Trend Prediction and its Application

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state super-vision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the fore-cast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown in f ormations character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whiteniza tion of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model re-quires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non-equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model,but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre-processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establi-shes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre-process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non-e-qual interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spec-trum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The exam ple shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and apply-ing in plant fault diagnosis.

EU-approved rapid tests for bovine spongiform encephalopathy detect atypical forms: a study for their sensitivities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Meloni

Full Text Available Since 2004 it become clear that atypical bovine spongiform encephalopthies (BSEs exist in cattle. Whenever their detection has relied on active surveillance plans implemented in Europe since 2001 by rapid tests, the overall and inter-laboratory performance of these diagnostic systems in the detection of the atypical strains has not been studied thoroughly to date. To fill this gap, the present study reports on the analytical sensitivity of the EU-approved rapid tests for atypical L- and H-type and classical BSE in parallel. Each test was challenged with two dilution series, one created from a positive pool of the three BSE forms according to the EURL standard method of homogenate preparation (50% w/v and the other as per the test kit manufacturer's instructions. Multilevel logistic models and simple logistic models with the rapid test as the only covariate were fitted for each BSE form analyzed as directed by the test manufacturer's dilution protocol. The same schemes, but excluding the BSE type, were then applied to compare test performance under the manufacturer's versus the water protocol. The IDEXX HerdChek ® BSE-scrapie short protocol test showed the highest sensitivity for all BSE forms. The IDEXX® HerdChek BSE-scrapie ultra short protocol, the Prionics®--Check WESTERN and the AJ Roboscreen® BetaPrion tests showed similar sensitivities, followed by the Roche® PrionScreen, the Bio-Rad® TeSeE™ SAP and the Prionics®--Check PrioSTRIP in descending order of analytical sensitivity. Despite these differences, the limit of detection of all seven rapid tests against the different classes of material set within a 2 log(10 range of the best-performing test, thus meeting the European Food Safety Authority requirement for BSE surveillance purposes. These findings indicate that not many atypical cases would have been missed surveillance since 2001 which is important for further epidemiological interpretations of the sporadic character of

Result of randomized control trial to increase breast health awareness among young females in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrnoosh Akhtari-Zavare

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second principal cause of cancer deaths in women worldwide as well as in Malaysia. Breast self-examination (BSE has a role in raising breast cancer awareness among women and educational programs play an important role in breast cancer preventive behavior. The aim of this study is to develop, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of Breast Health Awareness program based on health belief model on knowledge of breast cancer and breast-selfexamination and BSE practice among female students in Malaysia. Methods A single-blind randomized controlled trial was carried out among 370 female undergraduate students from January 2011 to April 2012 in two selected public universities in Malaysia. Participants were randomized to either the intervention group or the control group. The educational program was delivered to the intervention group. The outcome measures were assessed at baseline, 6, and 12 months after implementing the health educational program. Chi-square, independent samples t-test and two-way repeated measures ANOVA (GLM were conducted in the course of the data analyses. Results Mean scores of knowledge on breast cancer (p<0.003, knowledge on breast self examination (p<0.001, benefits of BSE (p<0.00, barrier of BSE (0.01 and confidence of BSE practice (p<0.00 in the intervention group had significant differences in comparison with those of the control group 6 and 12 months after the intervention. Also, among those who never practiced BSE at baseline, frequency of BSE practice increased 6 and 12 months after the intervention (p<0.05. Conclusion The Breast Health Awareness program based on health the belief model had a positive effect on knowledge of breast cancer and breast self-examination and practice of BSE among females in Malaysia. Trial registration The ANZCTR clinical trial registry ( ACTRN12616000831482 , retrospectively registered on Jun 23, 2016 in ANZCTR.org.au.

Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, N O

1997-01-01

The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.

2008-01-01

The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much...... of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs......). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas J Rodhouse

Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Guinea Pig Prion Protein Supports Rapid Propagation of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Prions.

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Joel C; Giles, Kurt; Saltzberg, Daniel J; Dugger, Brittany N; Patel, Smita; Oehler, Abby; Bhardwaj, Sumita; Sali, Andrej; Prusiner, Stanley B

2016-11-01

The biochemical and neuropathological properties of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) prions are faithfully maintained upon transmission to guinea pigs. However, primary and secondary transmissions of BSE and vCJD in guinea pigs result in long incubation periods of ∼450 and ∼350 days, respectively. To determine if the incubation periods of BSE and vCJD prions could be shortened, we generated transgenic (Tg) mice expressing guinea pig prion protein (GPPrP). Inoculation of Tg(GPPrP) mice with BSE and vCJD prions resulted in mean incubation periods of 210 and 199 days, respectively, which shortened to 137 and 122 days upon serial transmission. In contrast, three different isolates of sporadic CJD prions failed to transmit disease to Tg(GPPrP) mice. Many of the strain-specified biochemical and neuropathological properties of BSE and vCJD prions, including the presence of type 2 protease-resistant PrP Sc , were preserved upon propagation in Tg(GPPrP) mice. Structural modeling revealed that two residues near the N-terminal region of α-helix 1 in GPPrP might mediate its susceptibility to BSE and vCJD prions. Our results demonstrate that expression of GPPrP in Tg mice supports the rapid propagation of BSE and vCJD prions and suggest that Tg(GPPrP) mice may serve as a useful paradigm for bioassaying these prion isolates. Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions are two of the prion strains most relevant to human health. However, propagating these strains in mice expressing human or bovine prion protein has been difficult because of prolonged incubation periods or inefficient transmission. Here, we show that transgenic mice expressing guinea pig prion protein are fully susceptible to vCJD and BSE prions but not to sporadic CJD prions. Our results suggest that the guinea pig prion protein is a better, more rapid substrate than either bovine or human prion protein for

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

Science.gov (United States)

Groth, Detlef

2017-04-01

Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara L Crewe

Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Long Wavelength SAR Backscatter Modelling Trends as a Consequence of the Emergent Properties of Tree Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Brolly

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This study describes the novel use of a macroecological plant and forest structure model in conjunction with a Radiative Transfer (RT model to better understand interactions between microwaves and forest canopies. Trends predicted by the RT model, resulting from interactions with mixed age, mono and multi species forests, are analysed in comparison to those predicted using a simplistic structure based scattering model. This model relates backscatter to scatterer cross sectional or volume specifications, dependent on the size. The Spatially Explicit Reiterative Algorithm (SERA model is used to provide a widely varied tree size distribution while maintaining allometric consistency to produce a natural-like forest representation. The RT model is parameterised using structural information from SERA and microwave backscatter simulations are used to analyse the impact of changes to the forest stand. Results show that the slope of the saturation curve observed in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR backscatter-biomass relationship is sensitive to thinning and therefore forest basal area. Due to similarities displayed between the results of the RT and simplistic model, it is determined that forest SAR backscatter behaviour at long microwave wavelengths may be described generally using equations related to total stem volume and basal area. The nature of these equations is such that they describe saturating behaviour of forests in the absence of attenuation in comparable fashion to the trends exhibited using the RT model. Both modelled backscatter trends predict a   relationship to forest basal area from an early age when forest volume is increasing. When this is not the case, it is assumed to be a result of attenuation of the dominant stem-ground interaction due to the presence of excessive numbers of stems. This work shows how forest growth models can be successfully incorporated into existing independent scattering models and reveals, through the RT

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

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Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

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Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

Research of combination model for prediction of the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B

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Yin-ping CHEN

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Objective　To establish a combination model of autoregressive integrated moving average model and the grey dynamics (ARIMA-GM of hepatitis B incidence rate (1/100 000 to predict the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B, as to provide a scientific basis for the early discovery of the infectious diseases for the performance of countermeasures of controlling its spread. Methods　The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Qian'an city, Hebei province, was collected from Jan 2004 to Dec 2012, and a model (ARIMA was reproduced with SPSS software. The GM (1,1 model was used to correct the residual sequence with a threshold value, and a combined forecasting model was reproduced. This combination model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate in this city in 2013. Results　The model ARIMA(0,1,1(0,1,112 was established successfully and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence. Then the GM (1,1 model with a threshold of 3 was used to correct its residuals and obtain its nonlinear feature extraction of information. The forecasting model met required precision standards (C=0.673, P=0.877, the fitting accuracy of which was basically qualified. The results showed that the MAE, MAPE of the ARIMA-GM combined model were smaller than that of a single model, and the combined model could improve the prediction accuracy. Using the combined model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis B during Jan 2013 to Dec 2013, the overall trend was relatively consistent with the condition of previous years. Conclusion　The ARIMA-GM combined model can better fit the incidence rate of hepatitis B with a greater accuracy than the seasonal ARIMA model. The prediction results can provide the reference for the early warning system of HBV. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.12

The digital transformation of business models in the creative industries: A holistic framework and emerging trends

OpenAIRE

Li, F.

2018-01-01

This paper examines how digital technologies facilitate business model innovations in the creative industries. Through a systematic literature review, a holistic business model framework is developed, which is then used to analyse the empirical evidence from the creative industries. The research found that digital technologies have facilitated pervasive changes in business models, and some significant trends have emerged. However, the reconfigured business models are often not ‘new’ in the un...

Geographic exposure risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in US blood donors: a risk-ranking model to evaluate alternative donor-deferral policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A

2017-04-01

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.

Use of the D-R model to define trends in the emergence of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli in China.

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Fan Ding

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of the D-R model for defining trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli. METHODS: Actual data related to the manifestation of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli spanning years 1996-2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet. These data originated from 430 publications encompassing 1004 citations of resistance. The GM(1,1 and the novel D-R models were used to fit current data and from this, predict trends in the appearance of the drug-resistant phenotype. The results were evaluated by Relative Standard Error (RSE, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Mean Absolute Error (MAE. RESULTS: Results from the D-R model showed a rapid increase in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli in this region of the world. These results were considered accurate based upon the minor values calculated for RSE, MAD and MAE, and were equivalent to or better than those generated by the GM(1,1 model. CONCLUSION: The D-R model which was originally created to define trends in the transmission of swine viral diseases can be adapted to evaluating trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli. Using only a limited amount of data to initiate the study, our predictions closely mirrored the changes in drug resistance rates which showed a steady increase through 2005, a decrease between 2005 and 2008, and a dramatic inflection point and abrupt increase beginning in 2008. This is consistent with a resistance profile where changes in drug intervention temporarily delayed the upward trend in the appearance of the resistant phenotype; however, resistance quickly resumed its upward momentum in 2008 and this change was better predicted using the D-R model. Additional work is needed to determine if this pattern of "increase-control-increase" is indicative of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli or can be generally ascribed to bacteria acquiring resistance to drugs in the absence of alternative

Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Niu, G.; Melenberg, B.

2014-01-01

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are

Using trend templates in a neonatal seizure algorithm improves detection of short seizures in a foetal ovine model.

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Zwanenburg, Alex; Andriessen, Peter; Jellema, Reint K; Niemarkt, Hendrik J; Wolfs, Tim G A M; Kramer, Boris W; Delhaas, Tammo

2015-03-01

Seizures below one minute in duration are difficult to assess correctly using seizure detection algorithms. We aimed to improve neonatal detection algorithm performance for short seizures through the use of trend templates for seizure onset and end. Bipolar EEG were recorded within a transiently asphyxiated ovine model at 0.7 gestational age, a common experimental model for studying brain development in humans of 30-34 weeks of gestation. Transient asphyxia led to electrographic seizures within 6-8 h. A total of 3159 seizures, 2386 shorter than one minute, were annotated in 1976 h-long EEG recordings from 17 foetal lambs. To capture EEG characteristics, five features, sensitive to seizures, were calculated and used to derive trend information. Feature values and trend information were used as input for support vector machine classification and subsequently post-processed. Performance metrics, calculated after post-processing, were compared between analyses with and without employing trend information. Detector performance was assessed after five-fold cross-validation conducted ten times with random splits. The use of trend templates for seizure onset and end in a neonatal seizure detection algorithm significantly improves the correct detection of short seizures using two-channel EEG recordings from 54.3% (52.6-56.1) to 59.5% (58.5-59.9) at FDR 2.0 (median (range); p seizures by EEG monitoring at the NICU.

Effects of education based on the health belief model on screening behavior in high risk women for breast cancer, Tehran, Iran.

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Hajian, Sepideh; Vakilian, Katayon; Najabadi, Khadijeh Mirzaii; Hosseini, Jalil; Mirzaei, Hamid Reza

2011-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women. Early diagnosis allows efficient treatment and increases survival, but the efficacy of breast self examination (BSE) is not sufficiently well established. The American Cancer Society aims to give women the opportunity to recognize the utility, limitations and adverse effects of breast cancer screening through education models based on psychological theories. With the Health Belief Model, people's health perceptions and attitudes influence their practices, for example with screening. The purpose of this randomized controlled clinical trial was to determine the effect of education based on this model on breast cancer screening in high risk Iranian women. Participants were women with a family history of breast cancer (mother, sister, and daughter). After explanation of the study objectives to participants, they were recruited on obtaining oral consent and each filled out the study questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model. Allocation was into two groups by computerized randomization, control and intervention, receiving education on breast cancer screening. Perceived susceptibility to and seriousness of breast cancer, perceived usefulness of and barriers to BSE, clinical breast examination, and mammography, and self-efficacy in the ability to perform these, were assessed, with comparison of scores for BSE practice before and after education and doing mammography and clinical examination by a physician in intervention and control group. The mean age was 37.8 ± 11.7 (range 19-60). The mean rank in the intervention group significantly differed before and after the education, but except for " perceived threat" and "perceived usefulness of breast self examination", we did not find any significant differences from the control group. After educational sessions, breast self examination and clinical examination practice rates were elevated. Health education based on well known psychological theories for breast cancer

Experimental Infection of Cattle With a Novel Prion Derived From Atypical H-Type Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Okada, Hiroyuki; Masujin, Kentaro; Miyazawa, Kohtaro; Iwamaru, Yoshihumi; Imamura, Morikazu; Matsuura, Yuichi; Arai, Shozo; Fukuda, Shigeo; Murayama, Yuichi; Yokoyama, Takashi

2017-11-01

H-type bovine spongiform encephalopathy (H-BSE) is an atypical form of BSE in cattle. During passaging of H-BSE in transgenic bovinized (TgBoPrP) mice, a novel phenotype of BSE, termed BSE-SW emerged and was characterized by a short incubation time and host weight loss. To investigate the biological and biochemical properties of the BSE-SW prion, a transmission study was conducted in cattle, which were inoculated intracerebrally with brain homogenate from BSE-SW-infected TgBoPrP mice. The disease incubation period was approximately 15 months. The animals showed characteristic neurological signs of dullness, and severe spongiform changes and a widespread, uniform distribution of disease-associated prion protein (PrP Sc ) were observed throughout the brain of infected cattle. Immunohistochemical PrP Sc staining of the brain revealed the presence of intraglial accumulations and plaque-like deposits. No remarkable differences were identified in vacuolar lesion scores, topographical distribution patterns, and staining types of PrP Sc in the brains of BSE-SW- vs H-BSE-infected cattle. PrP Sc deposition was detected in the ganglia, vagus nerve, spinal nerve, cauda equina, adrenal medulla, and ocular muscle. Western blot analysis revealed that the specific biochemical properties of the BSE-SW prion, with an additional 10- to 12-kDa fragment, were well maintained after transmission. These findings indicated that the BSE-SW prion has biochemical properties distinct from those of H-BSE in cattle, although clinical and pathologic features of BSW-SW in cattle are indistinguishable from those of H-BSE. The results suggest that the 2 infectious agents, BSE-SW and H-BSE, are closely related strains.

CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

2017-01-01

China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

Trends and new business models in the portuguese fashion industry: a strategic innovation perspective

OpenAIRE

Queirós, David; Afonso, Paulo; Vieira, Filipa Dionísio

2013-01-01

This research project focuses on the discussion of trends and new business models for the textile and clothing industry in general and for the fashion industry, in particular, using tools and an approach supported on strategic innovation. A documentary analysis was performed and they were conducted a series of semi-structured interviews. It was noted the importance of the strategic analysis and particularly strategic innovation for the design of new successful business models. Main findings a...

Motivations and reasons for women attending a breast self-examination training program: A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Rea-Jeng; Huang, Lian-Hua; Hsieh, Yeu-Sheng; Chung, Ue-Lin; Huang, Chiun-Sheng; Bih, Herng-Dar

2010-07-10

Breast cancer is a major threat to Taiwanese women's health. Despite the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of breast self-examination (BSE) in reducing mortality, BSE is still advocated by some health departments. The aim of the study is to provide information about how women decide to practice BSE and their experiences through the training process. Sixty-six women aged 27-50 were recruited. A descriptive study was conducted using small group and individual in-depth interviews to collect data, and using thematic analysis and constant comparison techniques for data analysis. It was found that a sense of self-security became an important motivator for entering BSE training. The satisfaction in obtaining a sense of self-security emerged as the central theme. Furthermore, a ladder motivation model was developed to explain the participants' motivations for entering BSE training. The patterns of motivation include opportunity taking, clarifying confusion, maintaining health, and illness monitoring, which were connected with the risk perception for breast cancer. We recognize that the way women decide to attend BSE training is influenced by personal and social factors. Understanding the different risk assessments women rely on in making their health decisions is essential. This study will assist researchers and health professionals to gain a better understanding of alternative ways to deal with breast health, and not to be limited by the recommendations of the health authorities.

Curcumin and Boswellia serrata Modulate the Glyco-Oxidative Status and Lipo-Oxidation in Master Athletes

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Nino Cristiano Chilelli

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Chronic intensive exercise is associated with a greater induction of oxidative stress and with an excess of endogenous advanced glycation end-products (AGEs. Curcumin can reduce the accumulation of AGEs in vitro and in animal models. We examined whether supplementation with curcumin and Boswellia serrata (BSE gum resin for 3 months could affect plasma levels of markers of oxidative stress, inflammation, and glycation in healthy master cyclists. Methods. Forty-seven healthy male athletes were randomly assigned to Group 1, consisting of 22 subjects given a Mediterranean diet (MD alone (MD group, and Group 2 consisted of 25 subjects given a MD plus curcumin and BSE (curcumin/BSE group. Interleukin-6 (IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα, high-sensitivity c-reactive protein (hs-CRP, total AGE, soluble receptor for AGE (sRAGE, malondialdehyde (MDA, plasma phospholipid fatty acid (PPFA composition, and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA were tested at baseline and after 12 weeks. Results: sRAGE, NEFA, and MDA decreased significantly in both groups, while only the curcumin/BSE group showed a significant decline in total AGE. Only the changes in total AGE and MDA differed significantly between the curcumin/BSE and MD groups. Conclusions. Our data suggest a positive effect of supplementation with curcumin and BSE on glycoxidation and lipid peroxidation in chronically exercising master athletes.

Breast self-examination among female nurses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salem, O.A.; Hassan, M.A.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and investigate the knowledge and practice of breast self- examination (BSE) with the influencing factors on its compliance among female nurses. This study was conducted between January and December 2002 on 80 female nurses from Prince Rashid Military Hospital, Jordan. The questionnaire contained items on the demographic characteristics of the respondents, knowledge of breast cancer, attitudes toward BSE and questions regarding the practice of BSE. The survey was conducted on a voluntary basis. Out of 80 subjects, 42 (52%) performed BSE. Approximately 30% of those who performed BSE said they learned BSE during their work experience. A significant relationship was found between higher levels in work experience and BSE practice. Except for age, no significant relation was found between the socio-demographic factors and BSE practice. The sample showed strong belief in breast lump as a causing factor of breast cancer and had significant correlation with BSE practice. Positive correlation was found between nursing work experience and their practice in BSE as working nurses. Studies like these can enhance the knowledge regarding BSE among nurses and other medical professionals. (author)

Modeled distribution and abundance of a pelagic seabird reveal trends in relation to fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

Renner, Martin; Parrish, Julia K.; Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Edwards, Ann E.; Hunt, George L.

2013-01-01

The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is one of the most visible and widespread seabirds in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. However, relatively little is known about its abundance, trends, or the factors that shape its distribution. We used a long-term pelagic dataset to model changes in fulmar at-sea distribution and abundance since the mid-1970s. We used an ensemble model, based on a weighted average of generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest models to estimate the pelagic distribution and density of fulmars in the waters of the Aleutian Archipelago and Bering Sea. The most important predictor variables were colony effect, sea surface temperature, distribution of fisheries, location, and primary productivity. We calculated a time series from the ratio of observed to predicted values and found that fulmar at-sea abundance declined from the 1970s to the 2000s at a rate of 0.83% (± 0.39% SE) per annum. Interpolating fulmar densities on a spatial grid through time, we found that the center of fulmar distribution in the Bering Sea has shifted north, coinciding with a northward shift in fish catches and a warming ocean. Our study shows that fisheries are an important, but not the only factor, shaping fulmar distribution and abundance trends in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle Disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mubamba, C; Ramsay, G; Abolnik, C; Dautu, G; Gummow, B

2016-10-01

Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014. The study found that Newcastle Disease cases in eastern Zambia followed a seasonal and cyclic pattern with peaks in the hot dry season (Overall Seasonal Index 1.1) as well as cycles every three years with an estimated provincial incidence range of 0.16 to 1.7% per year. Annual trends were compared with major intervention policies implemented by the Zambian government, which often received donor support from the international community during the study period. Aid delivered through government programmes appeared to have no major impact on ND trends between 1989 and 2014 and reasons for this are discussed. There were apparent spatial shifts in districts with outbreaks over time which could be as a result of veterinary interventions chasing outbreaks rather than implementing uniform control. Data was also fitted to a predictive time series model for ND which could be used to plan for future ND control. Time series modelling showed an increasing trend in ND annual incidence over 25 years if existing interventions continue. A different approach to controlling the disease is needed if this trend is to be halted. Conversely, the positive trend may be a function of improved reporting by farmers as a result of more awareness of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy by Transmission of H-Type Prion in Homologous Prion Protein Context

OpenAIRE

Torres, Juan-María; Andréoletti, Olivier; Lacroux, Caroline; Prieto, Irene; Lorenzo, Patricia; Larska, Magdalena; Baron, Thierry; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos

2011-01-01

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and BSErelated disorders have been associated with a single major prion strain. Recently, 2 atypical, presumably sporadic forms of BSE have been associated with 2 distinct prion strains that are characterized mainly by distinct Western blot profi les of abnormal protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres), named high-type (BSE-H) and low-type (BSE-L), that also differed from classical BSE. We characterized 5 atypical BSE-H isolates by analyzing their molec...

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subanar Subanar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.

2010-01-01

The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)

Classical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy by Transmission of H-Type Prion in Homologous Prion Protein Context

Science.gov (United States)

Andréoletti, Olivier; Lacroux, Caroline; Prieto, Irene; Lorenzo, Patricia; Larska, Magdalena; Baron, Thierry; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos

2011-01-01

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and BSE-related disorders have been associated with a single major prion strain. Recently, 2 atypical, presumably sporadic forms of BSE have been associated with 2 distinct prion strains that are characterized mainly by distinct Western blot profiles of abnormal protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres), named high-type (BSE-H) and low-type (BSE-L), that also differed from classical BSE. We characterized 5 atypical BSE-H isolates by analyzing their molecular and neuropathologic properties during transmission in transgenic mice expressing homologous bovine prion protein. Unexpectedly, in several inoculated animals, strain features emerged that were highly similar to those of classical BSE agent. These findings demonstrate the capability of an atypical bovine prion to acquire classical BSE–like properties during propagation in a homologous bovine prion protein context and support the view that the epidemic BSE agent could have originated from such a cattle prion. PMID:21888788

EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Colette, A.; Andersson, C.; Manders, A.; Mar, K.; Mircea, M.; Pay, M.T.; Raffort, V.; Tsyro, S.; Cuvelier, C.; Adani, M.; Bessagnet, B.; Bergström, R.; Briganti, G.; Butler, T.; Cappelletti, A.; Couvidat, F.; Isidoro, M. d; Doumbia, T.; Fagerli, H.; Granier, C.; Heyes, C.; Klimont, Z.; Ojha, N.; Otero, N.; Schaap, M.; Sindelarova, K.; Stegehuis, A.I.; Roustan, Y.; Vautard, R.; Meijgaard, E. van; Garcia Vivanco, M.; Wind, P.

2017-01-01

The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

On-line signal trend identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tambouratzis, T.; Antonopoulos-Domis, M.

2004-01-01

An artificial neural network, based on the self-organizing map, is proposed for on-line signal trend identification. Trends are categorized at each incoming signal as steady-state, increasing and decreasing, while they are further classified according to characteristics such signal shape and rate of change. Tests with model-generated signals illustrate the ability of the self-organizing map to accurately and reliably perform on-line trend identification in terms of both detection and classification. The proposed methodology has been found robust to the presence of white noise

Reproductive Hormones and Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Midlife Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Thurston, Rebecca C; Bhasin, Shalender; Chang, Yuefang; Barinas Mitchell, Emma; Matthews, Karen A; Jasuja, Ravi; Santoro, Nanette

2018-05-18

Reproductive hormones are understood to be important to the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. However, standard estradiol (E2) and testosterone (T) assays lack sensitivity at the levels of postmenopausal women. Investigate relations of mass spectrometry-assessed estrone (E1), estradiol (E2), and testosterone (T), and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and subclinical CVD in women. 304 peri- and postmenopausal women, aged 40-60 years, and free of clinical CVD underwent subclinical CVD measurements. E1, E2, and T were assayed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry; Free T (FT) was estimated using ensemble allostery models. Associations between hormones and outcomes were analyzed using regression models adjusting for CVD risk factors. Carotid artery intima media thickness (IMT), inter-adventitial diameter (IAD), plaque; brachial flow mediated dilation (FMD). Higher E1 was related to higher FMD [b(SE)=.77(.37), p=.04], indicating better endothelial function. Higher E2 was related to lower IAD [b(SE)=-.07(.02), p=.004], indicating less carotid remodeling. Higher SHBG was related to higher FMD [b(SE)=1.31(.40), p=.001], yet higher IAD [b(SE)=.15(.06), p=.02] and carotid plaque [OR (95%CI)=1.84(1.16-2.91), p=.009]. Higher FT was associated with lower FMD [b(SE)=-1.58(.52), p=.003], yet lower IAD [b(SE)=-.19(.08), p=.01] and carotid plaque [OR(95%CI)=.49(.28-.88), p=.02]. Thus, higher SHBG and lower FT was associated with better endothelial function, yet greater carotid remodeling and plaque. Endogenous E1 levels were related to endothelial function and E2 to vascular remodeling, suggesting distinct roles of these estrogens. SHBG and free testosterone have a complex role and depend on the vessel under study.

vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Harney, Michael S

2003-11-26

BACKGROUND: The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. METHODS: We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat. RESULTS: We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0-15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the \\'at-risk\\' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure.

Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

OpenAIRE

Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

2017-01-01

The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

Detection and partial discrimination of atypical and classical bovine spongiform encephalopathies in cattle and primates using real-time quaking-induced conversion assay.

Science.gov (United States)

Levavasseur, Etienne; Biacabe, Anne-Gaëlle; Comoy, Emmanuel; Culeux, Audrey; Grznarova, Katarina; Privat, Nicolas; Simoneau, Steve; Flan, Benoit; Sazdovitch, Véronique; Seilhean, Danielle; Baron, Thierry; Haïk, Stéphane

2017-01-01

The transmission of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (C-BSE) through contaminated meat product consumption is responsible for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. More recent and atypical forms of BSE (L-BSE and H-BSE) have been identified in cattle since the C-BSE epidemic. Their low incidence and advanced age of onset are compatible with a sporadic origin, as are most cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans. Transmissions studies in primates and transgenic mice expressing a human prion protein (PrP) indicated that atypical forms of BSE may be associated with a higher zoonotic potential than classical BSE, and require particular attention for public health. Recently, methods designed to amplify misfolded forms of PrP have emerged as promising tools to detect prion strains and to study their diversity. Here, we validated real-time quaking-induced conversion assay for the discrimination of atypical and classical BSE strains using a large series of bovine samples encompassing all the atypical BSE cases detected by the French Centre of Reference during 10 years of exhaustive active surveillance. We obtained a 100% sensitivity and specificity for atypical BSE detection. In addition, the assay was able to discriminate atypical and classical BSE in non-human primates, and also sporadic CJD and vCJD in humans. The RT-QuIC assay appears as a practical means for a reliable detection of atypical BSE strains in a homologous or heterologous PrP context.

Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Paap (Richard)

1997-01-01

textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

Analyzing research trends on drug safety using topic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Chen

2018-04-06

Published drug safety data has evolved in the past decade due to scientific and technological advances in the relevant research fields. Considering that a vast amount of scientific literature has been published in this area, it is not easy to identify the key information. Topic modeling has emerged as a powerful tool to extract meaningful information from a large volume of unstructured texts. Areas covered: We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 4347 articles in four journals dedicated to drug safety from 2007 to 2016. We applied Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to extract 50 main topics, and conducted trend analysis to explore the temporal popularity of these topics over years. Expert Opinion/Commentary: We found that 'benefit-risk assessment and communication', 'diabetes' and 'biologic therapy for autoimmune diseases' are the top 3 most published topics. The topics relevant to the use of electronic health records/observational data for safety surveillance are becoming increasingly popular over time. Meanwhile, there is a slight decrease in research on signal detection based on spontaneous reporting, although spontaneous reporting still plays an important role in benefit-risk assessment. The topics related to medical conditions and treatment showed highly dynamic patterns over time.

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

Transmissibility of H-Type Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy to Hamster PrP Transgenic Mice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki Okada

Full Text Available Two distinct forms of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathies (H-BSE and L-BSE can be distinguished from classical (C- BSE found in cattle based on biochemical signatures of disease-associated prion protein (PrPSc. H-BSE is transmissible to wild-type mice-with infected mice showing a long survival period that is close to their normal lifespan-but not to hamsters. Therefore, rodent-adapted H-BSE with a short survival period would be useful for analyzing H-BSE characteristics. In this study, we investigated the transmissibility of H-BSE to hamster prion protein transgenic (TgHaNSE mice with long survival periods. Although none of the TgHaNSE mice manifested the disease during their lifespan, PrPSc accumulation was observed in some areas of the brain after the first passage. With subsequent passages, TgHaNSE mice developed the disease with a mean survival period of 220 days. The molecular characteristics of proteinase K-resistant PrPSc (PrPres in the brain were identical to those observed in first-passage mice. The distribution of immunolabeled PrPSc in the brains of TgHaNSE mice differed between those infected with H-BSE as compared to C-BSE or L-BSE, and the molecular properties of PrPres in TgHaNSE mice infected with H-BSE differed from those of the original isolate. The strain-specific electromobility, glycoform profiles, and proteolytic cleavage sites of H-BSE in TgHaNSE mice were indistinguishable from those of C-BSE, in which the diglycosylated form was predominant. These findings indicate that strain-specific pathogenic characteristics and molecular features of PrPres in the brain are altered during cross-species transmission. Typical H-BSE features were restored after back passage from TgHaNSE to bovinized transgenic mice, indicating that the H-BSE strain was propagated in TgHaNSE mice. This could result from the overexpression of the hamster prion protein.

Trending Topic Extraction using Topic Models and Biterm Discrimination

OpenAIRE

Minor Eduardo Quesada Grosso; Edgar Casasola; Jorge Antonio Leoni de León

2017-01-01

Mining and exploitation of data in social networks has been the focus of many efforts, but despite the resources and energy invested, still remains a lot for doing given its complexity, which requires the adoption of a multidisciplinary approach. Specifically, on what concerns to this research, the content of the texts published regularly, and at a very rapid pace, at sites of microblogs (eg Twitter.com) can be used to analyze global and local trends. These trends are marked by micr...

Motivations and reasons for women attending a Breast Self-Examination training program: A qualitative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huang Chiun-Sheng

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is a major threat to Taiwanese women's health. Despite the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of breast self-examination (BSE in reducing mortality, BSE is still advocated by some health departments. The aim of the study is to provide information about how women decide to practice BSE and their experiences through the training process. Sixty-six women aged 27-50 were recruited. Methods A descriptive study was conducted using small group and individual in-depth interviews to collect data, and using thematic analysis and constant comparison techniques for data analysis. Results It was found that a sense of self-security became an important motivator for entering BSE training. The satisfaction in obtaining a sense of self-security emerged as the central theme. Furthermore, a ladder motivation model was developed to explain the participants' motivations for entering BSE training. The patterns of motivation include opportunity taking, clarifying confusion, maintaining health, and illness monitoring, which were connected with the risk perception for breast cancer. Conclusions We recognize that the way women decide to attend BSE training is influenced by personal and social factors. Understanding the different risk assessments women rely on in making their health decisions is essential. This study will assist researchers and health professionals to gain a better understanding of alternative ways to deal with breast health, and not to be limited by the recommendations of the health authorities.

Breast self-examination: resistance to change.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Giudice, M Elisabeth; Tannenbaum, David; Goodwin, Pamela J

2005-05-01

To investigate whether Canadian family practitioners routinely teach breast self-examination (BSE) after publication of the 2001 Canadian Preventive Health Task Force guideline advising them to exclude teaching BSE from periodic health examinations. Self-administered cross-sectional mailed survey. Canada. A random sample of English-speaking general practitioners and physicians certified by the College of Family Physicians of Canada. Current and past BSE practices and opinions on the value of BSE. Response rate was 47.4%. Most respondents (88%) were aware of the new recommendations, yet only 16% had changed their usual practice of routinely teaching BSE. Most physicians agreed that before the recommendation they almost always taught BSE (74.3%). Only 9.5% agreed that physicians should follow the recommendation and not routinely teach BSE. A few also agreed that they now spend less time discussing BSE (25.7%) and that the recommendation has influenced them to stop teaching (12.4%) and encouraging (12.9%) women to practise BSE. Physicians who had changed their BSE practices were less likely to agree that BSE increases early detection of breast cancer and more likely to agree that BSE increases benign breast biopsies. They were also more likely to agree that screening mammography in women older than 50 decreases mortality from breast cancer. This survey, which assessed routine teaching of BSE, revealed poor adherence by Canadian family physicians to a well publicized evidence-based guideline update. Resistance to change could in part be attributed to a lack of knowledge of the supporting evidence, a lack of confidence in the evidence to date, and personal experiences with patients within their practices.

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

Science.gov (United States)

Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

2018-02-01

Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongjun Guan

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBPNeural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS. On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

Effects of peer education, social support and self esteem on breast self examination performance and knowledge level.

Science.gov (United States)

Malak, Arzu Tuna; Bektash, Murat; Turgay, Ayshe San; Tuna, Asli; Genç, Rabia Ekti

2009-01-01

To estimate associations among peer education, social support and self-esteem and their influences on performance of breast self-examination (BSE). Seven volunteer peer educators were given the BSE training programme and in turn educated 65 women students in the university. BSE knowledge evaluation forms developed by Maurer were applied for evaluation. Other data were collected with questionnaires for the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory and Scale of Perceived Social Support over three months. Knowledge level points of students and the BSE practice ratio were increased by peer support. There was a positive relationship between average BSE knowledge points and social support and self-esteem. The results showed positive relationships among BSE knowledge, social support and self-esteem, these affecting the BSE performance level.

Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)

1997-04-01

We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.

Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

1997-04-01

We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of

Multi-Model Assessment of Trends and Variability in Terrestrial Carbon Uptake in India

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, A. S.; Bala, G.; Ravindranath, N. H.

2015-12-01

Indian terrestrial ecosystem exhibits large temporal and spatial variability in carbon sources and sinks due to its monsoon based climate system, diverse land use and land cover distribution and cultural practices. In this study, a multi-model based assessment is made to study the trends and variability in the land carbon uptake for India over the 20th century. Data from nine models which are a part of a recent land surface model intercomparison project called TRENDY is used for the study. These models are driven with common forcing data over the period of 1901-2010. Model output variables assessed include: gross primary production (GPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), autotrophic respiration (Ra) and net primary production (NPP). The net ecosystem productivity (NEP) for the Indian region was calculated as a difference of NPP and Rh and it was found that NEP for the region indicates an estimated increase in uptake over the century by -0.6 TgC/year per year. NPP for India also shows an increasing trend of 2.03% per decade from 1901-2010. Seasonal variation in the multimodel mean NPP is maximum during the southwest monsoon period (JJA) followed by the post monsoon period (SON) and is attributed to the maximum in rainfall for the region during the months of JJA. To attribute the changes seen in the land carbon variables, influence of climatic drivers such as precipitation, temperature and remote influences of large scale phenomenon such as ENSO on the land carbon of the region are also estimated in the study. It is found that although changes in precipitation shows a good correlation to the changes seen in NEP, remote drivers like ENSO do not have much effect on them. The Net Ecosystem Exchange is calculated with the inclusion of the land use change flux and fire flux from the models. NEE suggests that the region behaves as a small sink for carbon with an net uptake of 5 GtC over the past hundred years.

New insights into Mo and Ru isotope variation in the nebula and terrestrial planet accretionary genetics

Science.gov (United States)

Bermingham, K. R.; Worsham, E. A.; Walker, R. J.

2018-04-01

When corrected for the effects of cosmic ray exposure, Mo and Ru nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies in iron meteorites from at least nine different parent bodies are strongly correlated in a manner consistent with variable depletion in s-process nucleosynthetic components. In contrast to prior studies, the new results show no significant deviations from a single correlation trend. In the refined Mo-Ru cosmic correlation, a distinction between the non-carbonaceous (NC) group and carbonaceous chondrite (CC) group is evident. Members of the NC group are characterized by isotope compositions reflective of variable s-process depletion. Members of the CC group analyzed here plot in a tight cluster and have the most s-process depleted Mo and Ru isotopic compositions, with Mo isotopes also slightly enriched in r- and possibly p-process contributions. This indicates that the nebular feeding zone of the NC group parent bodies was characterized by Mo and Ru with variable s-process contributions, but with the two elements always mixed in the same proportions. The CC parent bodies sampled here, by contrast, were derived from a nebular feeding zone that had been mixed to a uniform s-process depleted Mo-Ru isotopic composition. Six molybdenite samples, four glacial diamictites, and two ocean island basalts were analyzed to provide a preliminary constraint on the average Mo isotope composition of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE). Combined results yield an average μ97Mo value of +3 ± 6. This value, coupled with a previously reported μ100Ru value of +1 ± 7 for the BSE, indicates that the isotopic composition of the BSE falls precisely on the refined Mo-Ru cosmic correlation. The overlap of the BSE with the correlation implies that there was homogeneous accretion of siderophile elements for the final accretion of 10 to 20 wt% of Earth's mass. The only known cosmochemical materials with an isotopic match to the BSE, with regard to Mo and Ru, are some members of the IAB iron meteorite

The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

2011-01-01

In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior.

The role of behavioral, normative and control beliefs in breast self-examination.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Tania E; White, Katherine M

2008-01-01

A limited number of studies have been conducted examining the role of beliefs in the prediction of breast self-examination (BSE) behavior in Australian women, particularly women under 50 years of age for which it is the primary method of early detection of breast cancer. The present research investigated the differences in behavioral, normative and control beliefs between BSE performers and non-performers, within a theory of planned behavior framework, to assist in the development of specific education programs aimed at increasing BSE amongst this demographic group. Two hundred and fifty-three women enrolled in an undergraduate psychology course completed a questionnaire assessing beliefs regarding BSE. One month later, these women reported their BSE behavior during the previous month. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify belief-based differences between BSE performers and non-performers. Underlying behavioral and control, but not normative, beliefs about BSE distinguished between BSE performers and non-performers. Performers were more likely than non-performers to believe that engaging in BSE would be associated with identifying a lump or breast change sooner and detecting a breast cancer earlier in its course. Non-performers were more likely to perceive factors such as forgetting to perform the behavior, lack of time, lack of knowledge about how to perform the behavior, laziness, and a lack of confidence in their ability to identify lumps and breast changes as factors preventing their control over the performance of BSE. The belief-based differences between BSE performers and non-performers found in this study can be used to inform health promotion strategies aimed at increasing BSE behavior in women less than 50 years of age.

Digital Revolution and Innovative Business Models in Healthcare: Global Trends and Russian Realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Bereznoy, A V; Saygitov, R T

Digital revolution is one of the major global trends resulting in the unprecedented scale and depth of penetration of information and communication technologies into all sectors of national economy, including healthcare. The development of this trend brought about high expectations related to the improvement of quality of medical assistance, accessibility and economic efficiency of healthcare services. However, euphoria of the first steps of digital revolution is passing now, opening doors to more realistic analysis of opportunities and conditions of realization of the true potential hidden in the digital transformation of healthcare. More balanced perception of the peculiarities of innovation processes in the sector is coming together with understanding of the serious barriers, hampering implementation of the new ideas and practices due to complicated interweaving of social, economic, ethical and psychological factors. When taking into account the industry specifics it becomes evident that digital revolution cannot be a quick turnaround but rather would pass a number of phases and is likely to last more than one decade. In this context the article focuses on the prospects of the new business models, capable of making significant changes in today’s economic landscape of the sector (including uber-medicine, retail clinics, retainer medicine, network models of medical services). The authors also provide assessment of the current situation and perspectives of digital healthcare development in Russia.

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

2015-02-01

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

Current economic trends in equine practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Andrew R

2009-12-01

Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

Quantitative analysis of wet-heat inactivation in bovine spongiform encephalopathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuura, Yuichi; Ishikawa, Yukiko; Bo, Xiao; Murayama, Yuichi; Yokoyama, Takashi; Somerville, Robert A.; Kitamoto, Tetsuyuki; Mohri, Shirou

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We quantitatively analyzed wet-heat inactivation of the BSE agent. ► Infectivity of the BSE macerate did not survive 155 °C wet-heat treatment. ► Once the sample was dehydrated, infectivity was observed even at 170 °C. ► A quantitative PMCA assay was used to evaluate the degree of BSE inactivation. - Abstract: The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent is resistant to conventional microbial inactivation procedures and thus threatens the safety of cattle products and by-products. To obtain information necessary to assess BSE inactivation, we performed quantitative analysis of wet-heat inactivation of infectivity in BSE-infected cattle spinal cords. Using a highly sensitive bioassay, we found that infectivity in BSE cattle macerates fell with increase in temperatures from 133 °C to 150 °C and was not detected in the samples subjected to temperatures above 155 °C. In dry cattle tissues, infectivity was detected even at 170 °C. Thus, BSE infectivity reduces with increase in wet-heat temperatures but is less affected when tissues are dehydrated prior to the wet-heat treatment. The results of the quantitative protein misfolding cyclic amplification assay also demonstrated that the level of the protease-resistant prion protein fell below the bioassay detection limit by wet-heat at 155 °C and higher and could help assess BSE inactivation. Our results show that BSE infectivity is strongly resistant to wet-heat inactivation and that it is necessary to pay attention to BSE decontamination in recycled cattle by-products

Quantitative analysis of wet-heat inactivation in bovine spongiform encephalopathy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matsuura, Yuichi; Ishikawa, Yukiko; Bo, Xiao; Murayama, Yuichi; Yokoyama, Takashi [Prion Disease Research Center, National Institute of Animal Health, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856 (Japan); Somerville, Robert A. [The Roslin Institute and Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, Roslin, Midlothian, EH25 9PS (United Kingdom); Kitamoto, Tetsuyuki [Division of CJD Science and Technology, Department of Prion Research, Center for Translational and Advanced Animal Research on Human Diseases, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo, Aoba, Sendai 980-8575 (Japan); Mohri, Shirou, E-mail: shirou@affrc.go.jp [Prion Disease Research Center, National Institute of Animal Health, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856 (Japan)

2013-03-01

Highlights: ► We quantitatively analyzed wet-heat inactivation of the BSE agent. ► Infectivity of the BSE macerate did not survive 155 °C wet-heat treatment. ► Once the sample was dehydrated, infectivity was observed even at 170 °C. ► A quantitative PMCA assay was used to evaluate the degree of BSE inactivation. - Abstract: The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent is resistant to conventional microbial inactivation procedures and thus threatens the safety of cattle products and by-products. To obtain information necessary to assess BSE inactivation, we performed quantitative analysis of wet-heat inactivation of infectivity in BSE-infected cattle spinal cords. Using a highly sensitive bioassay, we found that infectivity in BSE cattle macerates fell with increase in temperatures from 133 °C to 150 °C and was not detected in the samples subjected to temperatures above 155 °C. In dry cattle tissues, infectivity was detected even at 170 °C. Thus, BSE infectivity reduces with increase in wet-heat temperatures but is less affected when tissues are dehydrated prior to the wet-heat treatment. The results of the quantitative protein misfolding cyclic amplification assay also demonstrated that the level of the protease-resistant prion protein fell below the bioassay detection limit by wet-heat at 155 °C and higher and could help assess BSE inactivation. Our results show that BSE infectivity is strongly resistant to wet-heat inactivation and that it is necessary to pay attention to BSE decontamination in recycled cattle by-products.

Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain (1973–2014)

OpenAIRE

Campra, Pablo; Morales, Maria

2016-01-01

The magnitude of the trends of environmental and climatic changes is mostly derived from the slopes of the linear trends using ordinary least-square fitting. An alternative flexible fitting model, piecewise regression, has been applied here to surface air temperature records in southeastern Spain for the recent warming period (1973–2014) to gain accuracy in the description of the inner structure of change, dividing the time series into linear segments with different slopes. Breakpoint y...

A Model of Proteostatic Energy Cost and Its Use in Analysis of Proteome Trends and Sequence Evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kepp, Kasper Planeta

2014-01-01

A model of proteome-associated chemical energetic costs of cells is derived from protein-turnover kinetics and protein folding. Minimization of the proteostatic maintenance cost can explain a range of trends of proteomes and combines both protein function, stability, size, proteostatic cost, temp...

Perception of breast health amongst Malaysian female adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Che, Chong Chin; Coomarasamy, Jeya Devi; Suppayah, Balakrishnan

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Malaysia, about one in 19 women being at risk. This study aimed to investigate knowledge and practice of breast self-examination (BSE), as well as knowledge of risk factors for breast cancer amongst female adolescents in Malaysia. Subsequently, relationships between demographic characteristics and knowledge level of BSE, risk factors for breast cancer and BSE practice were assessed. A descriptive, cross sectional survey was conducted using a sample of 500 Malaysian adolescents from the age of 15 to 19 years. A self-administered questionnaire was used to gather socio- demographic characteristics, knowledge of BSE, knowledge of risk factors for breast cancer and BSE practices. The findings of this study indicated that female adolescents in Malaysia demonstrated an inadequate knowledge level of BSE and risk factors for breast cancer. Only 27.8% of female adolescents performed BSE regularly. BSE practice, knowledge of BSE and knowledge of risk factors for breast cancer showed significant positive relationships. The study highlighted the importance of planning and implementing breast health education programs for female students in secondary schools in Malaysia. It will also provide the health care providers an avenue to stress on the importance of imparting breast health education to adolescents.

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer M Yeh

Full Text Available Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA incidence.We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS. Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58% of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%. With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%. Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

2018-01-01

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

2018-01-01

Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JianYing Wang

Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Meicun; Cai Qi

2011-01-01

The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

Measurement of the knowledge level about breast self-exam among the female employees of a university hospital, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamide Şişman

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: Periodic mammography, clinical breast examination and breast self-exam (BSE facilitate getting a therapeutic response and improve disease prognosis, by leading to early diagnosis of the breast cancer. Methods: The study included a total of 618 women working in Çukurova University, Faculty of Medicine, as technician, secretary, staff, midwife and doctor. They answered a 22-items questionnaire consisting of questions about general knowledge, 8 of these were about BSE. Results: While it was statistically significant that the education was not correlated with the age of onset of BSE and timing of BSE, the education was significantly efficient in terms of knowing the aim of the BSE, its frequency, post-menopausal BSE time, nipple discharge properties in the case of breast cancer, diagnostic methods and the risks. While it was statistically significant that the profession was not related to age of onset of BSE and knowing the right day of the month on which BSE should be performed, the education was likely to be efficient in knowing the frequency, post-menopausal BSE time, aim of the BSE, nipple discharge properties in the case of breast cancer, diagnostic methods and the risks. When the percentage of giving right answers to the questions and educational background and professional groups were compared, it was seen that the difference of the number of right answers and professional groups was significant. Conclusion: Based on our results, we concluded that the education about BSE is warranted in order to increase the likelihood of female healthcare personnel to diagnose breast cancer at an earlier stage, given their role in raising the awareness of the population.

Cellular Scanning Strategy for Selective Laser Melting: Capturing Thermal Trends with a Low-Fidelity, Pseudo-Analytical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sankhya Mohanty

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Simulations of additive manufacturing processes are known to be computationally expensive. The resulting large runtimes prohibit their application in secondary analysis requiring several complete simulations such as optimization studies, and sensitivity analysis. In this paper, a low-fidelity pseudo-analytical model has been introduced to enable such secondary analysis. The model has been able to mimic a finite element model and was able to capture the thermal trends associated with the process. The model has been validated and subsequently applied in a small optimization case study. The pseudo-analytical modelling technique is established as a fast tool for primary modelling investigations.

Emergence of trend trading and its effects in minority game

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xing-Hua; Liang, Xiao-Bei; Wang, Nai-Jing

2006-09-01

In this paper, we extended Minority Game (MG) by equipping agents with both value and trend strategies. In the new model, agents (we call them strong-adaptation agents) can autonomically select to act as trend trader or value trader when they game and learn in system. So the new model not only can reproduce stylized factors but also has the potential to investigate into the process of some problems of securities market. We investigated the dynamics of trend trading and its impacts on securities market based on the new model. Our research found that trend trading is inevitable when strong-adaptation agents make decisions by inductive reasoning. Trend trading (of strong-adaptation agents) is not irrational behavior but shows agent's strong-adaptation intelligence, because strong-adaptation agents can take advantage of the pure value agents when they game together in hybrid system. We also found that strong-adaptation agents do better in real environment. The results of our research are different with those of behavior finance researches.

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will

Trends in domestic violence service and leadership: implications for an integrated shelter model.

Science.gov (United States)

Panzer, P G; Philip, M B; Hayward, R A

2000-05-01

Domestic violence is a dangerous and prevalent social problem affecting up to 4 million women and countless children annually. Shelters offer safety and an opportunity for change during the crisis of family violence. These individuals also have the potential for retraumatization if leadership within the program recapitulates the abuse and coercion felt at home. This article reviews three related trends through the lens of power and control--domestic violence policy and service, models of leadership, and the study of traumatic stress disorders and recovery--and describes their implications for modern shelter service delivery.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

Science.gov (United States)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

Removing Regional Trends in Microgravity in Complex Environments: Testing on 3D Model and Field Investigations in the Eastern Dead Sea Coast (Jordan

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A. Al-Zoubi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Microgravity investigations are now recognized as a powerful tool for subsurface imaging and especially for the localization of underground karsts. However numerous natural (geological, technical, and environmental factors interfere with microgravity survey processing and interpretation. One of natural factors that causes the most disturbance in complex geological environments is the influence of regional trends. In the Dead Sea coastal areas the influence of regional trends can exceed residual gravity effects by some tenfold. Many widely applied methods are unable to remove regional trends with sufficient accuracy. We tested number of transformation methods (including computing gravity field derivatives, self-adjusting and adaptive filtering, Fourier series, wavelet, and other procedures on a 3D model (complicated by randomly distributed noise, and field investigations were carried out in Ghor Al-Haditha (the eastern side of the Dead Sea in Jordan. We show that the most effective methods for regional trend removal (at least for the theoretical and field cases here are the bilinear saddle and local polynomial regressions. Application of these methods made it possible to detect the anomalous gravity effect from buried targets in the theoretical model and to extract the local gravity anomaly at the Ghor Al-Haditha site. The local anomaly was utilized for 3D gravity modeling to construct a physical-geological model (PGM.

Modelling the decadal trend of ecosystem carbon fluxes demonstrates the important role of functional changes in a temperate deciduous forest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Jian; Jansson, P.E.; van der Linden, Leon

2013-01-01

Temperate forests are globally important carbon sinks and stocks. Trends in net ecosystem exchange have been observed in a Danish beech forest and this trend cannot be entirely attributed to changing climatic drivers. This study sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the observed trend...... for nitrogen demand during mast years is supported by the inter-annual variability in the estimated parameters. The inter-annual variability of photosynthesis parameters was fundamental to the simulation of the trend in carbon fluxes in the investigated beech forest and this demonstrates the importance......, the latent and sensible heat fluxes and the CO2 fluxes decreased the parameter uncertainty considerably compared to using CO2 fluxes as validation data alone. The fitted model was able to simulate the observed carbon fluxes well (R2=0.8, mean error=0.1gCm−2d−1) but did not reproduce the decadal (1997...

Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Wanninkhof

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-01-01

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

Formal faculty observation and assessment of bedside skills for 3rd-year neurology clerks.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson Stone, Robert; Mooney, Christopher; Wexler, Erika; Mink, Jonathan; Post, Jennifer; Jozefowicz, Ralph F

2016-11-22

To evaluate the feasibility and utility of instituting a formalized bedside skills evaluation (BSE) for 3rd-year medical students on the neurology clerkship. A neurologic BSE was developed for 3rd - year neurology clerks at the University of Rochester for the 2012-2014 academic years. Faculty directly observed 189 students completing a full history and neurologic examination on real inpatients. Mock grades were calculated utilizing the BSE in the final grade, and number of students with a grade difference was determined when compared to true grade. Correlation was explored between the BSE and clinical scores, National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) scores, case complexity, and true final grades. A survey was administered to students to assess their clinical skills exposure and the usefulness of the BSE. Faculty completed and submitted a BSE form for 88.3% of students. There was a mock final grade change for 13.2% of students. Correlation coefficients between BSE score and clinical score/NBME score were 0.36 and 0.35, respectively. A statistically significant effect of BSE was found on final clerkship grade (F 2,186 = 31.9, p neurology clerkship was feasible. Low correlation between BSE score and other evaluations indicated a unique measurement to contribute to student grade. Using real patients with differing case complexity did not alter the grade. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

The effect of message framing on breast self-examination attitudes, intentions, and behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyerowitz, B E; Chaiken, S

1987-03-01

In this study we tested the framing hypothesis that a pamphlet stressing the negative consequences of not performing breast self-examination (BSE) would be more persuasive than a pamphlet emphasizing BSE's positive consequences. College-aged female subjects were exposed to a loss-frame pamphlet, a gain-frame pamphlet, or a no-arguments pamphlet, or they received no pamphlet describing the importance of and the techniques for performing BSE. Attitudes toward BSE and intentions to perform BSE were assessed immediately after this intervention and again 4 months later. The follow-up also assessed subjects' postexperimental BSE behavior. Consistent with predictions, subjects who read a pamphlet with arguments framed in loss language manifested more positive BSE attitudes, intentions, and behaviors than did subjects in the other three conditions. The greater impact of the loss pamphlet could not be attributed to greater fear arousal, better memory for pamphlet content, greater perceived susceptibility to breast cancer, or stronger beliefs in BSE's efficacy on the part of the loss subjects. Only measures of perceived self-efficacy in performing BSE were differentially affected by the framing manipulation, with loss subjects reporting the greatest levels of self-confidence. The results are discussed in terms of prospect theory's framing postulate and a simpler negativity-bias conceptualization, and underlying mechanisms such as differential salience and vividness are considered. Clinical implications of the findings are also explored.

Practice of breast self-examination among women in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Naggar, Redhwan Ahmed; Bobryshev, Yuri V; Al-Jashamy, Karim

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the practice and associated factors of breast self- examination (BSE) among Malaysian women. For this cross-sectional study 250 women were selected by a simple random sampling technique. The questionnaire was consisted of three parts: socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge about BSE, and practice of BSE. Obtained data was analyzed using SPSS version 13. T-test and ANOVA test were used to explore the relation between socio-demographic characteristics and the practice of BSE. About 32% of the participants reported that they have had family history of cancer and about 20% of the participants reported that they have had family history of breast cancer. The majority of the participants (88.8%) have heard about breast cancer and 78.4% of the participants have heard about BSE. Race, marital status, residency, regular exercise, awareness about breast cancer, belief that breast cancer can be detected early, belief that early detection improves the chance of survival, family history of cancer, family history of breast cancer, awareness about BSE, and belief that BSE is necessary, significantly influenced the practice of BSE among women. Practice of BSE on monthly basis was found to be 47.2% among the study participants. The socio-demographic characteristics significantly influence the practice of BSA among women in Malaysia. The findings of this study might not only influence the planning of specific screening interventions and strategies in Malaysia but might also be important for the relevant international communities, interested in the peculiarities of BSE incidence in different countries.

Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1995-04-01

The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

2006-01-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

An approximate multitrait model for genetic evaluation in dairy cattle with a robust estimation of genetic trends (Open Access publication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madsen Per

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract In a stochastic simulation study of a dairy cattle population three multitrait models for estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values were compared. The first model was an approximate multitrait model using a two-step procedure. The first step was a single trait model for all traits. The solutions for fixed effects from these analyses were subtracted from the phenotypes. A multitrait model only containing an overall mean, an additive genetic and a residual term was applied on these preadjusted data. The second model was similar to the first model, but the multitrait model also contained a year effect. The third model was a full multitrait model. Genetic trends for total merit and for the individual traits in the breeding goal were compared for the three scenarios to rank the models. The full multitrait model gave the highest genetic response, but was not significantly better than the approximate multitrait model including a year effect. The inclusion of a year effect into the second step of the approximate multitrait model significantly improved the genetic trend for total merit. In this study, estimation of genetic parameters for breeding value estimation using models corresponding to the ones used for prediction of breeding values increased the accuracy on the breeding values and thereby the genetic progress.

The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets

OpenAIRE

Mohanty, Roshni; P, Srinivasan

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between stock market returns and volatility in the Indian stock markets using AR(1)-EGARCH(p, q)-in-Mean model. The study considers daily closing prices of two major indexes of Indian stock exchanges, viz., S&P CNX NIFTY and the BSE-SENSEX of National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), respectively for the period from July 1, 1997 to December 31, 2013. The empirical results show positive but insignificant relationship between stock r...

Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, C.; Qin, C.

2014-01-01

This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

2015-03-01

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

2014-10-01

Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

Comparison of Electron Imaging Modes for Dimensional Measurements in the Scanning Electron Microscope.

Science.gov (United States)

Postek, Michael T; Vladár, András E; Villarrubia, John S; Muto, Atsushi

2016-08-01

Dimensional measurements from secondary electron (SE) images were compared with those from backscattered electron (BSE) and low-loss electron (LLE) images. With the commonly used 50% threshold criterion, the lines consistently appeared larger in the SE images. As the images were acquired simultaneously by an instrument with the capability to operate detectors for both signals at the same time, the differences cannot be explained by the assumption that contamination or drift between images affected the SE, BSE, or LLE images differently. Simulations with JMONSEL, an electron microscope simulator, indicate that the nanometer-scale differences observed on this sample can be explained by the different convolution effects of a beam with finite size on signals with different symmetry (the SE signal's characteristic peak versus the BSE or LLE signal's characteristic step). This effect is too small to explain the >100 nm discrepancies that were observed in earlier work on different samples. Additional modeling indicates that those discrepancies can be explained by the much larger sidewall angles of the earlier samples, coupled with the different response of SE versus BSE/LLE profiles to such wall angles.

Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

Science.gov (United States)

Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

2017-04-04

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

Recent trends in space mapping technology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bandler, John W.; Cheng, Qingsha S.; Hailu, Daniel

2004-01-01

We review recent trends in the art of Space Mapping (SM) technology for modeling and design of engineering devices and systems. The SM approach aims at achieving a satisfactory solution with a handful of computationally expensive so-called "fine" model evaluations. SM procedures iteratively update...

Evacuation modeling trends

CERN Document Server

Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel

2016-01-01

This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

How much uranium is in the Earth? Predictions for geoneutrinos at KamLAND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorentini, Gianni; Lissia, Marcello; Mantovani, Fabio; Vannucci, Riccardo

2005-01-01

Geo-neutrino detection can determine the amount of long-lived radioactive elements within our planet, thus providing a direct test of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) model and fixing the radiogenic contribution to the terrestrial heat. We present a prediction for the geo-neutrino signal at KamLAND as a function of the uranium mass in the Earth. The prediction is based on global mass balance, supplemented by a detailed geochemical and geophysical study of the region near the detector. The prediction is weakly dependent on mantle modeling. If BSE is correct, uranium geo-neutrinos will produce between 25 and 35 events per year and 10 32 protons at Kamioka

Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. .... Note: The topography is classified by using the SRTM3 digital elevation model (DEM), which ...... trends and flooding risk in the west of Scotland; Nordic.

Trends, demands and challenges in TCAD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bork, Ingo; Moroz, Victor; Bomholt, Lars; Pramanik, Dipu

2005-01-01

Currently, TCAD is most heavily used in the device research and process integration phases of a technology life cycle. However, a major trend visible in the industry is the demand to apply TCAD tools far beyond the integration phase into manufacturing and yield optimization. Short IC product lifetimes make fast yield ramp-up critical for being profitable and TCAD tools build a bridge between IC design and manufacturing. Another major trend is to use TCAD to evaluate layout dependent stress variations and account for these variations in the design flow of standard cells, libraries and custom ICs. This article gives an overview of those trends and addresses resulting challenges for TCAD models and tools

Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirti AREKAR

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

Understanding trends in Australian alcohol consumption-an age-period-cohort model.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingston, Michael; Raninen, Jonas; Slade, Tim; Swift, Wendy; Lloyd, Belinda; Dietze, Paul

2016-09-01

To decompose Australian trends in alcohol consumption into their age, period (survey year) and cohort (birth year/generation) components. In particular, we aimed to test whether recent declines in overall consumption have been influenced by reductions in drinking among recently born cohorts. Seven cross-sectional waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey (1995-2013). Age, period and cohort effects were estimated using a linear and logistic cross-classified random-effects models (CCREMs). Australia A total of 124 440 Australians (69 193 females and 55 257 males), aged 14-79 years. Whether or not respondents consumed alcohol in the 12 months prior to the survey and, for those who did, the estimated volume of pure alcohol consumed, derived using standard quantity-frequency survey questions. Controlling for age and period effects, there was significant variation in drinking participation and drinking volume by birth cohort. In particular, male cohorts born between the 1965 and 1974 and female cohorts born between 1955 and 1974 reported higher rates of drinking participation (P women (P < 0.01). Recent birth cohorts (born between 1995 and 1999) in Australia report significantly lower rates of both drinking participation and drinking volume than previous cohorts, controlling for their age distribution and overall changes in population drinking. These findings suggest that the recent decline in alcohol consumption in Australia has been driven by declines in drinking among these recently born cohorts. These trends are consistent with international shifts in youth drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Immunohistochemical distinction between preclinical bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie infection in sheep

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thuring, C.M.A.; Keulen, van L.J.M.; Langeveld, J.P.M.; Vromans, M.E.W.; Zijderveld, van F.G.; Sweeney, T.

2005-01-01

Sheep are susceptible experimentally to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), the clinical signs being indistinguishable from those of scrapie. Because of the possibility of natural ovine BSE infection, laboratory tests are needed to distinguish between scrapie and BSE infection. The objectives of

Trend and forecasting rate of cancer deaths at a public university hospital using univariate modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, A.; Hassan, Noor I.

2013-09-01

Cancer is one of the principal causes of death in Malaysia. This study was performed to determine the pattern of rate of cancer deaths at a public hospital in Malaysia over an 11 year period from year 2001 to 2011, to determine the best fitted model of forecasting the rate of cancer deaths using Univariate Modeling and to forecast the rates for the next two years (2012 to 2013). The medical records of the death of patients with cancer admitted at this Hospital over 11 year's period were reviewed, with a total of 663 cases. The cancers were classified according to 10th Revision International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Data collected include socio-demographic background of patients such as registration number, age, gender, ethnicity, ward and diagnosis. Data entry and analysis was accomplished using SPSS 19.0 and Minitab 16.0. The five Univariate Models used were Naïve with Trend Model, Average Percent Change Model (ACPM), Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt's Method. The overall 11 years rate of cancer deaths showed that at this hospital, Malay patients have the highest percentage (88.10%) compared to other ethnic groups with males (51.30%) higher than females. Lung and breast cancer have the most number of cancer deaths among gender. About 29.60% of the patients who died due to cancer were aged 61 years old and above. The best Univariate Model used for forecasting the rate of cancer deaths is Single Exponential Smoothing Technique with alpha of 0.10. The forecast for the rate of cancer deaths shows a horizontally or flat value. The forecasted mortality trend remains at 6.84% from January 2012 to December 2013. All the government and private sectors and non-governmental organizations need to highlight issues on cancer especially lung and breast cancers to the public through campaigns using mass media, media electronics, posters and pamphlets in the attempt to decrease the rate of cancer deaths in Malaysia.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhov, I. I.

2018-04-01

The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

Global health care leadership development: trends to consider

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MacPhee M

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Maura MacPhee,1 Lilu Chang,2 Diana Lee,3 Wilza Spiri4 1University of British Columbia School of Nursing, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Center for Advancement of Nursing Education, Koo Foundation, Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Nethersole School of Nursing, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 4São Paulo State University, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends associated with global health care leadership development. Accompanying these trends are propositions based on current available evidence. These testable propositions should be considered when designing, implementing, and evaluating global health care leadership development models and programs. One particular leadership development model, a multilevel identity model, is presented as a potential model to use for leadership development. Other, complementary approaches, such as positive psychology and empowerment strategies, are discussed in relation to leadership identity formation. Specific issues related to global leadership are reviewed, including cultural intelligence and global mindset. An example is given of a nurse leadership development model that has been empirically tested in Canada. Through formal practice–academic–community collaborations, this model has been locally adapted and is being used for nurse leader training in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil. Collaborative work is under way to adapt the model for interprofessional health care leadership development. Keywords: health care leadership, development models, global trends, collective

Trend analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

1991-01-01

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

Science.gov (United States)

The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere h...

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

Knowledge of Female Undergraduate Students on Breast Cancer and Breast Self-examination in Klang Valley, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtari-Zavare, Mehrnoosh; Latiff, Latiffah A; Juni, Muhamad Hanafiah; Said, Salmiah Md; Ismail, Irmi Zarina

2015-01-01

In Malaysia, breast cancer is the first cancer among females regardness of race. The purpose of this study was to identify the knowledge and BSE practice among undergraduate female students at four public universities in Klang Valley, Malaysia. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 820 undergraduate female students using a self-administered questionnaire covering socio-demographic data, knowledge of breast cancer and BSE practice. The mean age of the respondents was 21.7±1.2 years. The majority of them were single (96.8%), Malay (91.9%) and 16.5% of respondents had a family history of breast cancer. This study showed low level of knowledge on breast cancer and breast self-examination among participants. Only 19.6% participants were performing BSE regularly. Knowledge of breast self-examination was significantly associated with BSE practice (p=0.00). Also, there were significant associations between performing BSE with age, marital status and being trained by a doctor for doing BSE (p<0.05). Our findings showed that the rate of BSE practice and knowledge of breast cancer is inadequate among young Malaysian females. A public health education program is essential to improve breast cancer prevention among this group.

The mathematics of cost trend forecasting; Der Lernkurve folgen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haslinger, Rupert

2010-05-07

The relation of the number of products produced to the production cost can be described by mathematical models. Learning curves enable forecasting of cost trends. But is this just theory, or do these forecasts really predict cost trends of photovoltaic systems in Germany. (orig.)

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Trend shocks and business cycles in Sub Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Naoussi , Claude Francis; Tripier , Fabien

2010-01-01

This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]. We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior of output and consumption across countries, especially ...

On the use of a regression model for trend estimates from ground-based atmospheric observations in the Southern hemisphere

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Bencherif, H

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The present reports on the use of a multi-regression model adapted at Reunion University for temperature and ozone trend estimates. Depending on the location of the observing site, the studied geophysical signal is broken down in form of a sum...

A wide-range embrittlement trend curve for western RPV steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirk, M.T.

2011-01-01

Embrittlement trend curves (ETCs) are used to estimate neutron irradiation embrittlement as a function of both exposure (fluence, flux, temperature, ...) and composition variables. ETCs provide information needed to assess the structural integrity of operating nuclear reactors, and to determine their suitability for continued safe operation. Past efforts on ETC development in the United States have used data drawn from domestic licensees. While this approach has addressed past needs well, future needs such as power up-rates, license extensions to 60 years and beyond, and the use of low copper materials in new reactors produce future operating conditions for the US reactor fleet that may differ from past experience, suggesting that data from sources other than licensee surveillance programs may be needed. In this paper we draw together embrittlement data expressed in terms of ΔT41J and ΔYS from a wide variety of data sources as a first step in examining future embrittlement trends. We develop a 'wide range' ETC based on a collection of over 2500 data. We assess how well this ETC models the whole database, as well as significant data subsets. Comparisons presented herein indicate that a single algebraic model, denoted WR-C(5), represents reasonably well both the trends evident in the data overall as well as trends exhibited by four special data subsets. The WR-C(5) model indicates the existence of trends in high fluence data (Φ > 2-3*10 19 n/cm 2 , E > 1 MeV) that are not as apparent in the US surveillance data due to the limited quantity of ΔT30 data measured at high fluence in this dataset. Additionally, WR-C(5) models well the trends in both test and power reactor data despite the fact it has not term to account for flux. It is suggested that one appropriate use of the WR-C(5) trend curve may include the design irradiation studies to validate or refute the findings presented herein. Additionally, WR-C(5) could be used, along with other information (e.g., other

Modeling flight attendants' exposure to secondhand smoke in commercial aircraft: historical trends from 1955 to 1989.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ruiling; Dix-Cooper, Linda; Hammond, S Katharine

2015-01-01

Flight attendants were exposed to elevated levels of secondhand smoke (SHS) in commercial aircraft when smoking was allowed on planes. During flight attendants' working years, their occupational SHS exposure was influenced by various factors, including the prevalence of active smokers on planes, fliers' smoking behaviors, airplane flight load factors, and ventilation systems. These factors have likely changed over the past six decades and would affect SHS concentrations in commercial aircraft. However, changes in flight attendants' exposure to SHS have not been examined in the literature. This study estimates the magnitude of the changes and the historic trends of flight attendants' SHS exposure in U.S. domestic commercial aircraft by integrating historical changes of contributing factors. Mass balance models were developed and evaluated to estimate flight attendants' exposure to SHS in passenger cabins, as indicated by two commonly used tracers (airborne nicotine and particulate matter (PM)). Monte Carlo simulations integrating historical trends and distributions of influence factors were used to simulate 10,000 flight attendants' exposure to SHS on commercial flights from 1955 to 1989. These models indicate that annual mean SHS PM concentrations to which flight attendants were exposed in passenger cabins steadily decreased from approximately 265 μg/m(3) in 1955 and 1960 to 93 μg/m(3) by 1989, and airborne nicotine exposure among flight attendants also decreased from 11.1 μg/m(3) in 1955 to 6.5 μg/m(3) in 1989. Using duration of employment as an indicator of flight attendants' cumulative occupational exposure to SHS in epidemiological studies would inaccurately assess their lifetime exposures and thus bias the relationship between the exposure and health effects. This historical trend should be considered in future epidemiological studies.

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akihiko Ito

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP, we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO2, climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr−1. In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their

Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V; Williams, Neal M; Brittain, Claire; Isaacs, Rufus; Gibbs, Jason; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-05

Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation's pollinators.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara L. Crewe

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1 in the wrong direction, or (2 with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Use of the D-R model to define trends in the emergence of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli in China

Science.gov (United States)

Objective: To assess the efficacy of the D-R model for defining trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli. Methods: Actual data related to the manifestation of Ceftazidime-resistant E.coli spanning years 1996-2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet (CN...

A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

Science.gov (United States)

Jurgens, Bryant; Böhlke, John Karl; Kauffman, Leon J.; Belitz, Kenneth; Esser, Bradley K.

2016-01-01

A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFC-113, and 14C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

All Clinically-Relevant Blood Components Transmit Prion Disease following a Single Blood Transfusion: A Sheep Model of vCJD

Science.gov (United States)

de Wolf, Christopher; Tan, Boon Chin; Smith, Antony; Groschup, Martin H.; Hunter, Nora; Hornsey, Valerie S.; MacGregor, Ian R.; Prowse, Christopher V.; Turner, Marc; Manson, Jean C.

2011-01-01

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion. PMID:21858015

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Young

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

East Antarctica is an order of magnitude larger than its western neighbour and the Greenland ice sheet. It has the greatest potential to contribute to sea level rise of any source, including non-glacial contributors. It is, however, the most challenging ice mass to constrain because of a range of factors including the relative paucity of in-situ observations and the poor signal to noise ratio of Earth Observation data such as satellite altimetry and gravimetry. A recent study using satellite radar and laser altimetry (Zwally et al. 2015) concluded that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) had been accumulating mass at a rate of 136±28 Gt/yr for the period 2003-08. Here, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model, which has been tested on, and applied to, the whole of Antarctica, to investigate the impact of different assumptions regarding the origin of elevation changes of the EAIS. We combined GRACE, satellite laser and radar altimeter data and GPS measurements to solve simultaneously for surface processes (primarily surface mass balance, SMB), ice dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment over the period 2003-13. The hierarchical model partitions mass trends between SMB and ice dynamics based on physical principles and measures of statistical likelihood. Without imposing the division between these processes, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +18 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +39 Gt/yr, to SMB. The total mass trend for that period for the EAIS was 57±20 Gt/yr. Over the period 2003-08, we obtain an ice dynamic trend of 12 Gt/yr and a SMB trend of 15 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 27 Gt/yr. We then imposed the condition that the surface mass balance is tightly constrained by the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and allowed height changes due to ice dynamics to occur in areas of low surface velocities (solution that satisfies all the input data, given these constraints. By imposing these conditions, over the period 2003-13 we obtained a mass

Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

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S. M. Al-Salem

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

Potential assessment of a neural network model with PCA/RBF approach for forecasting pollutant trends in Mong Kok urban air, Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, W.-Z.; Wang, W.-J.; Wang, X.-K.; Yan, S.-H.; Lam, Joseph C.

2004-01-01

The forecasting of air pollutant trends has received much attention in recent years. It is an important and popular topic in environmental science, as concerns have been raised about the health impacts caused by unacceptable ambient air pollutant levels. Of greatest concern are metropolitan cities like Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, respirable suspended particulates (RSP), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) are major air pollutants due to the dominant usage of diesel fuel by commercial vehicles and buses. Hence, the study of the influence and the trends relating to these pollutants is extremely significant to the public health and the image of the city. The use of neural network techniques to predict trends relating to air pollutants is regarded as a reliable and cost-effective method for the task of prediction. The works reported here involve developing an improved neural network model that combines both the principal component analysis technique and the radial basis function network and forecasts pollutant tendencies based on a recorded database. Compared with general neural network models, the proposed model features a more simple network architecture, a faster training speed, and a more satisfactory prediction performance. The improved model was evaluated with hourly time series of RSP, NO x and NO 2 concentrations monitored at the Mong Kok Roadside Gaseous Monitory Station in Hong Kong during the year 2000 and proved to be effective. The model developed is a potential tool for forecasting air quality parameters and is superior to traditional neural network methods

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Static correlation beyond the random phase approximation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Thomas; Thygesen, Kristian Sommer

2014-01-01

derived from Hedin's equations (Random Phase Approximation (RPA), Time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF), Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE), and Time-Dependent GW) all reproduce the correct dissociation limit. We also show that the BSE improves the correlation energies obtained within RPA and TDHF significantly...... and confirms that BSE greatly improves the RPA and TDHF results despite the fact that the BSE excitation spectrum breaks down in the dissociation limit. In contrast, second order screened exchange gives a poor description of the dissociation limit, which can be attributed to the fact that it cannot be derived...

Effects of a smartphone application on breast self-examination: a feasibility study.

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Jaesung; Chun, Mison; Lee, Ki Young; Oh, Young-Taek; Noh, O Kyu; Park, Rae Woong

2013-12-01

The aims of this study were to develop a smartphone application to encourage breast self-examination (BSE), and to evaluate the effects of this application in terms of modifying BSE behavior. A smartphone application, based on the Android OS, was developed with functions including a BSE date alarm, a reminder to encourage mother and daughter to practice BSE together, record keeping, and educational content with video clips. Females aged 19 and over were enrolled to evaluate the effectiveness of the application. Two series of questionnaires were carried out (before and after use of the application) by e-mail, telephone, and face-to-face interviews between July and September 2012. Forty-five subjects were enrolled in the study (age 29.5-5.9 years). Of the participants, only 28 (62.2%) had ever practiced BSE and only one of these (2.2%) was carried out at the appropriate time, based on the results of the baseline survey. After using the application, the number of participants practicing BSE increased from 28 to 32 (62.2% to 71.1%, p = 0.503). In subgroup analysis (age application increased BSE in females younger than 30 years. To confirm the long-term benefits of the mobile application, additional studies must be carried out.

Breast cancer prevention knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors among college women and mother-daughter communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Kratzke, Cynthia; Vilchis, Hugo; Amatya, Anup

2013-06-01

Although breast cancer prevention targets mostly women ages 40 and older, little is known about breast cancer prevention for young women and mother's advice. The purpose of this study was to examine breast cancer prevention knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors among college women and mother-daughter communication. Hispanic and non-Hispanic students at a southwestern university completed a breast cancer prevention survey with items for mother's advice, breast self-awareness and risk reduction knowledge, self-efficacy, susceptibility, family history, provider breast self-exam (BSE) recommendation, peer norms, BSE practice, and demographics. An openended item was also used to elicit types of mother's advice. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors for receiving mother's advice for breast cancer prevention and BSE practice. Self-reported data using a survey were obtained from 546 college women with a mean age of 23.3 (SD = 7.75). Nearly 36 % received mothers' advice and 55 % conducted BSE. Predictors for receiving mother's advice were age, self-efficacy, and family history of breast cancer. Predictors for BSE practice were mother's advice, age, self-efficacy, and provider BSE recommendation. Family history of breast cancer and knowledge were not significant predictors for BSE practice. Findings support the need for clinicians, community health educators, and mothers to provide breast cancer prevention education targeting college women.

Prions spread via the autonomic nervous system from the gut to the central nervous system in cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Christine; Ziegler, Ute; Buschmann, Anne; Weber, Artur; Kupfer, Leila; Oelschlegel, Anja; Hammerschmidt, Baerbel; Groschup, Martin H

2007-03-01

To elucidate the still-unknown pathogenesis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), an oral BSE challenge and sequential kill study was carried out on 56 calves. Relevant tissues belonging to the peripheral and central nervous system, as well as to the lymphoreticular tract, from necropsied animals were analysed by highly sensitive immunohistochemistry and immunoblotting techniques to reveal the presence of BSE-associated pathological prion protein (PrPSc) depositions. Our results demonstrate two routes involving the autonomic nervous system through which BSE prions spread by anterograde pathways from the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) to the central nervous system (CNS): (i) via the coeliac and mesenteric ganglion complex, splanchnic nerves and the lumbal/caudal thoracic spinal cord (representing the sympathetic GIT innervation); and (ii) via the Nervus vagus (parasympathetic GIT innervation). The dorsal root ganglia seem to be subsequently affected, so it is likely that BSE prion invasion of the non-autonomic peripheral nervous system (e.g. sciatic nerve) is a secondary retrograde event following prion replication in the CNS. Moreover, BSE-associated PrPSc was already detected in the brainstem of an animal 24 months post-infection, which is 8 months earlier than reported previously. These findings are important for the understanding of BSE pathogenesis and for the development of new diagnostic strategies for this infectious disease.

Status of Breast Self-Examination Performance among Women Referring to Health Centers of Tabriz, Iran

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Farshbaf-Khalili Azizeh

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objective: Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer and the second principal cause of deaths from cancer in women. Breast self-examination (BSE is an inexpensive screening method and is carried out by women themselves. The purpose of this study was to examine the status of breast self-examination performance among women referring to health centers of Tabriz, Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was a descriptive/ cross-sectional research carried out on 400 women aged 20-50 years. The samples were recruited randomly from among female clients of health centers in Tabriz. A questionnaire and an observational checklist were used to elicit socio-demographic information and status of BSE performance among women. Content validity was used for validation and Cronbach’s alpha was calculated (0.80 for reliability of instrument. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze data through SPSS software. Results: The findings of this research showed that only 18.8% of women performed BSE. Among them, 46.67% performed BSE monthly, and 40% at the end of menstruation. The initiation age of BSE in 77% was between 21-30 years of age. It is considerable that 54.7% of them had received no advice on BSE from physicians and midwives. The majority of women did not perform the various steps of BSE. The quality of this screening was very desirable in 2 (0.5 %, desirable in 5 (1.3%, average in 19 (4.8%, undesirable in 36 (9%, and very undesirable in 338 (84.5% women. Chi-square test showed a significant relationship between the quality of BSE performance and level of education, employment, breastfeeding quality, and family history of breast cancer (P < 0.05. Conclusion: The findings showed that the status of BSE performance was very poor. Therefore, to encourage women to use BSE correctly and regularly, education programs should be performed through various media including television, radio, and leaflets. The role of Health personnel in this

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

KAUST Repository

Mahajan, Salil

2011-05-11

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Economic trends of tokamak power plants independent of physics scaling models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reid, R.L.; Steiner, D.

1978-01-01

This study examines the effects of plasma radius, field on axis, plasma impurity level, and aspect ratio on power level and unit capital cost, $/kW/sub e/, of tokamak power plants sized independent of plasma physics scaling models. It is noted that tokamaks sized in this manner are thermally unstable based on trapped particle scaling relationships. It is observed that there is an economic advantage for larger power level tokamaks achieved by physics independent sizing; however, the incentive for increased power levels is less than that for fission reactors. It is further observed that the economic advantage of these larger power level tokamaks is decreased when plasma thermal stability measures are incorporated, such as by increasing the plasma impurity concentration. This trend of economy with size obtained by physics independent sizing is opposite to that observed when the tokamak designs are constrained to obey the trapped particle and empirical scaling relationships

Component aging and reliability trends in Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankala, K.E.; Vaurio, J.K.

1989-01-01

A plant-specific reliability data collection and analysis system has been developed at the Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant to perform tests for component aging and analysis of reliability trends. The system yields both mean values an uncertainty distribution information for reliability parameters to be used in the PSA project underway and in living-PSA applications. Several different trend models are included in the reliability analysis system. Simple analytical expressions have been derived from the parameters of these models, and their variances have been obtained using the information matrix. This paper is focused on the details of the learning/aging models and the estimation of their parameters and statistical accuracies. Applications to the historical data of the Loviisa plant are presented. The results indicate both up- and down-trends in failure rates as well as individuality between nominally identical components

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2009-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

Experimental H-type and L-type bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle: observation of two clinical syndromes and diagnostic challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konold Timm

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The majority of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE cases so far identified worldwide have been detected by active surveillance. Consequently the volume and quality of material available for detailed characterisation is very limiting. Here we report on a small transmission study of both atypical forms, H- and L-type BSE, in cattle to provide tissue for test evaluation and research, and to generate clinical, molecular and pathological data in a standardised way to enable more robust comparison of the two variants with particular reference to those aspects most relevant to case ascertainment and confirmatory diagnosis within existing regulated surveillance programmes. Results Two groups of four cattle, intracerebrally inoculated with L-type or H-type BSE, all presented with a nervous disease form with some similarities to classical BSE, which progressed to a more dull form in one animal from each group. Difficulty rising was a consistent feature of both disease forms and not seen in two BSE-free, non-inoculated cattle that served as controls. The pathology and molecular characteristics were distinct from classical BSE, and broadly consistent with published data, but with some variation in the pathological characteristics. Both atypical BSE types were readily detectable as BSE by current confirmatory methods using the medulla brain region at the obex, but making a clear diagnostic distinction between the forms was not consistently straightforward in this brain region. Cerebellum proved a more reliable sample for discrimination when using immunohistochemistry. Conclusions The prominent feature of difficulty rising in atypical BSE cases may explain the detection of naturally occurring cases in emergency slaughter cattle and fallen stock. Current confirmatory diagnostic methods are effective for the detection of such atypical cases, but consistently and correctly identifying the variant forms may require modifications to

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

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Andrew J Kroll

Full Text Available Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina, California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia, an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33, in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07, in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17. Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06. However, we cannot exclude

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small

Evaluations of and reasoning about normative and deviant ingroup and outgroup members: development of the black sheep effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Dominic; Palmer, Sally B; Rutland, Adam; Cameron, Lindsey; Van de Vyver, Julie

2014-01-01

Research with adults has demonstrated a "black sheep effect" (BSE) whereby, relative to evaluations of normative group members, ingroup deviants are derogated more than outgroup deviants. The developmental subjective group dynamics (DSGD) model holds that the BSE should develop during middle childhood when children apply wider social norms. Three hundred and thirty-eight children who were between 5 and 12 years old judged a normative (socially desirable) and a deviant (socially undesirable) member from an ingroup or an outgroup school. Results confirmed a developmental increase in the BSE, the first time this has been demonstrated. Children's own evaluations of group members were mediated by their expectations about ingroup peers' evaluations. In line with DSGD and social domain theories, with age, children's explanations of peer evaluations for ingroup deviance focused relatively more on loyalty. Practical and theoretical implications for peer inclusion and exclusion are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Real-Time Evaluation of Breast Self-Examination Using Computer Vision

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Eman Mohammadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide and breast self-examination (BSE is considered as the most cost-effective approach for early breast cancer detection. The general objective of this paper is to design and develop a computer vision algorithm to evaluate the BSE performance in real-time. The first stage of the algorithm presents a method for detecting and tracking the nipples in frames while a woman performs BSE; the second stage presents a method for localizing the breast region and blocks of pixels related to palpation of the breast, and the third stage focuses on detecting the palpated blocks in the breast region. The palpated blocks are highlighted at the time of BSE performance. In a correct BSE performance, all blocks must be palpated, checked, and highlighted, respectively. If any abnormality, such as masses, is detected, then this must be reported to a doctor to confirm the presence of this abnormality and proceed to perform other confirmatory tests. The experimental results have shown that the BSE evaluation algorithm presented in this paper provides robust performance.

Real-time evaluation of breast self-examination using computer vision.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Eman; Dadios, Elmer P; Gan Lim, Laurence A; Cabatuan, Melvin K; Naguib, Raouf N G; Avila, Jose Maria C; Oikonomou, Andreas

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide and breast self-examination (BSE) is considered as the most cost-effective approach for early breast cancer detection. The general objective of this paper is to design and develop a computer vision algorithm to evaluate the BSE performance in real-time. The first stage of the algorithm presents a method for detecting and tracking the nipples in frames while a woman performs BSE; the second stage presents a method for localizing the breast region and blocks of pixels related to palpation of the breast, and the third stage focuses on detecting the palpated blocks in the breast region. The palpated blocks are highlighted at the time of BSE performance. In a correct BSE performance, all blocks must be palpated, checked, and highlighted, respectively. If any abnormality, such as masses, is detected, then this must be reported to a doctor to confirm the presence of this abnormality and proceed to perform other confirmatory tests. The experimental results have shown that the BSE evaluation algorithm presented in this paper provides robust performance.

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

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Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

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Shah Nita H.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

The Effect of Peer Education upon Breast Self-Examination Behaviors and Self-Esteem among University Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayran, Gulsun; Fırat, Meryem; Kucukakca, Gulden; Cuneydioğlu, Beyazıt; Tahta, Kubra; Avcı, Esra

2017-07-01

The current study was semi-experimentally designed in order to identify the effect of peer education upon breast self-examination (BSE) behaviors and self-esteem among university students. The study was undertaken with 100 female students who studied at Erzincan University. Peer educators were recruited from the 4th year students. The data were collected with a questionnaire form, BSE skill form and Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale in two phases one month before and after the BSE peer education. For the data assessment; percentage distributions, frequency, mean, standard deviation and Simple T test were employed. The mean age of the participant students was 20.45±1.67 year and all of them were single. It was found that during the first data collection phase, only 16 % of the students performed BSE while during the final data collection phase, the rate of the students performing BSE rose to 77 %. During the first data collection phase, students received a mean score of 2.36±4.13 from BSE skill form while during the last data collection phase they had a mean score of 10.70±3.40 from BSE skill form. When the scores obtained from Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale by the students were examined, it was seen that they received a mean score of 1.20±1.34 during the first data collection phase while they had a mean score of 0.84±1.07 during the final data collection phase. Although short-term feedback was obtained, it was noted that students' BSE knowledge and skills increased considerably.

Exploring the Impact of ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 Certification on Financial Performance: The Case of Companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange

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Mihaela Ionașcu

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 certification on the financial performance of Romanian companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. Based on audited financial statements of a population of 67 non-financial companies listed during 2013-2015 and using regression models, this paper shows, for the first time in Romania, that companies listed on BSE, implementing complex management systems (quality – environmental and/or occupational health and safety perform better, and that their performance is directly linked to the complexity of the management systems implemented.

Internal dosimetry - its evolution and new trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertelli, Luiz

1997-01-01

This paper presents some discussions on the developments and trends of metabolic models and dosimetry and their associated parameters, which have been adopted by ICRP to evaluate intakes of radionuclides

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

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Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

Trends and progress in system identification

CERN Document Server

Eykhoff, Pieter

1981-01-01

Trends and Progress in System Identification is a three-part book that focuses on model considerations, identification methods, and experimental conditions involved in system identification. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with a discussion of model method in system identification, citing four examples differing on the nature of the models involved, the nature of the fields, and their goals. Subsequent chapters describe the most important aspects of model theory; the """"classical"""" methods and time series estimation; application of least squares and related techniques for the e

Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

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Farhat Iqbal

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

Current market trends in hospital/physician integration.

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Bauman, Randy R

2009-01-01

This article explores recent trends that are dramatically changing the landscape of typical hospital/physician integration models and provides the reader with useful insights to better evaluate this dynamically changing marketplace.

Studies of the transmissibility of the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to the domestic chicken

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Moore Jo

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Transmission of the prion disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE occurred accidentally to cattle and several other mammalian species via feed supplemented with meat and bone meal contaminated with infected bovine tissue. Prior to United Kingdom controls in 1996 on the feeding of mammalian meat and bone meal to farmed animals, the domestic chicken was potentially exposed to feed contaminated with the causal agent of BSE. Although confirmed prion diseases are unrecorded in avian species a study was undertaken to transmit BSE to the domestic chicken by parenteral and oral inoculations. Transmissibility was assessed by clinical monitoring, histopathological examinations, detection of a putative disease form of an avian prion protein (PrP in recipient tissues and by mouse bioassay of tissues. Occurrence of a progressive neurological syndrome in the primary transmission study was investigated by sub-passage experiments. Results No clinical, pathological or bioassay evidence of transmission of BSE to the chicken was obtained in the primary or sub-passage experiments. Survival data showed no significant differences between control and treatment groups. Neurological signs observed, not previously described in the domestic chicken, were not associated with significant pathology. The diagnostic techniques applied failed to detect a disease associated form of PrP. Conclusion Important from a risk assessment perspective, the present study has established that the domestic chicken does not develop a prion disease after large parenteral exposures to the BSE agent or after oral exposures equivalent to previous exposures via commercial diets. Future investigations into the potential susceptibility of avian species to mammalian prion diseases require species-specific immunochemical techniques and more refined experimental models.

Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

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Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

2009-01-01

Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

Covariant solutions of the Bethe-Salpeter equation and an application to the nucleon structure function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, A.G.

1998-01-01

There is a need for covariant solutions of bound state equations in order to construct realistic QCD based models of mesons and baryons. Furthermore, we ideally need to know the structure of these bound states in all kinematical regimes, which makes a direct solution in Minkowski space (without any 3-dimensional reductions) desirable. The Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) for bound states in scalar theories is reformulated and solved for arbitrary scattering kernels in terms of a generalized spectral representation directly in Minkowski space. This differs from the conventional Euclidean approach, where the BSE can only be solved in ladder approximation after a Wick rotation. An application of covariant Bethe-Salpeter solutions to a quark-diquark model of the nucleon is also briefly discussed. (orig.)

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

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G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

Health care units and human resources management trends.

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André, Adriana Maria; Ciampone, Maria Helena Trench; Santelle, Odete

2013-02-01

To identify factors producing new trends in basic health care unit management and changes in management models. This was a prospective study with ten health care unit managers and ten specialists in the field of Health in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2010. The Delphi methodology was adopted. There were four stages of data collection, three quantitative and the fourth qualitative. The first three rounds dealt with changing trends in management models, manager profiles and required competencies, and the Mann-Whitney test was used in the analysis. The fourth round took the form of a panel of those involved, using thematic analysis. The main factors which are driving change in basic health care units were identified, as were changes in management models. There was consensus that this process is influenced by the difficulties in managing teams and by politics. The managers were found to be up-to-date with trends in the wider context, with the arrival of social health organizations, but they are not yet anticipating these within the institutions. Not only the content, but the professional development aspect of training courses in this area should be reviewed. Selection and recruitment, training and assessment of these professionals should be guided by these competencies aligned to the health service mission, vision, values and management models.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

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Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues

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Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.

2015-12-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

PrP-C1 fragment in cattle brains reveals features of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy associated PrPsc.

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Serra, Fabienne; Müller, Joachim; Gray, John; Lüthi, Ramona; Dudas, Sandor; Czub, Stefanie; Seuberlich, Torsten

2017-03-15

Three different types of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are known and supposedly caused by distinct prion strains: the classical (C-) BSE type that was typically found during the BSE epidemic, and two relatively rare atypical BSE types, termed H-BSE and L-BSE. The three BSE types differ in the molecular phenotype of the disease associated prion protein, namely the N-terminally truncated proteinase K (PK) resistant prion protein fragment (PrP res ). In this study, we report and analyze yet another PrP res type (PrP res-2011 ), which was found in severely autolytic brain samples of two cows in the framework of disease surveillance in Switzerland in 2011. Analysis of brain tissues from these animals by PK titration and PK inhibitor assays ruled out the process of autolysis as the cause for the aberrant PrP res profile. Immunochemical characterization of the PrP fragments present in the 2011 cases by epitope mapping indicated that PrP res-2011 corresponds in its primary sequence to the physiologically occurring PrP-C1 fragment. However, high speed centrifugation, sucrose gradient assay and NaPTA precipitation revealed biochemical similarities between PrP res-2011 and the disease-associated prion protein found in BSE affected cattle in terms of detergent insolubility, PK resistance and PrP aggregation. Although it remains to be established whether PrP res-2011 is associated with a transmissible disease, our results point out the need of further research on the role the PrP-C1 aggregation and misfolding in health and disease. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Effect of Peer Education upon Breast Self-Examination Behaviors and Self-Esteem among University Students

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Ayran, Gulsun; Fırat, Meryem; Kucukakca, Gulden; Cuneydioğlu, Beyazıt; Tahta, Kubra; Avcı, Esra

2017-01-01

Objective The current study was semi-experimentally designed in order to identify the effect of peer education upon breast self-examination (BSE) behaviors and self-esteem among university students. Materials and methods The study was undertaken with 100 female students who studied at Erzincan University. Peer educators were recruited from the 4th year students. The data were collected with a questionnaire form, BSE skill form and Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale in two phases one month before and after the BSE peer education. For the data assessment; percentage distributions, frequency, mean, standard deviation and Simple T test were employed. Results The mean age of the participant students was 20.45±1.67 year and all of them were single. It was found that during the first data collection phase, only 16 % of the students performed BSE while during the final data collection phase, the rate of the students performing BSE rose to 77 %. During the first data collection phase, students received a mean score of 2.36±4.13 from BSE skill form while during the last data collection phase they had a mean score of 10.70±3.40 from BSE skill form. When the scores obtained from Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale by the students were examined, it was seen that they received a mean score of 1.20±1.34 during the first data collection phase while they had a mean score of 0.84±1.07 during the final data collection phase. Conclusion Although short-term feedback was obtained, it was noted that students’ BSE knowledge and skills increased considerably. PMID:28894853

Multiple Stage Ore Formation in the Chadormalu Iron Deposit, Bafq Metallogenic Province, Central Iran: Evidence from BSE Imaging and Apatite EPMA and LA-ICP-MS U-Pb Geochronology

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Hassan Heidarian

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The Chadormalu magnetite-apatite deposit in Bafq metallogenic province, Central Iran, is hosted in the late Precambrian-lower Cambrian volcano-sedimentary rocks with sodic, calcic, and potassic alterations characteristic of iron oxide copper-gold (IOCG and iron oxide-apatite (IOA ore systems. Apatite occurs as scattered irregular veinlets and disseminated grains, respectively, within and in the marginal parts of the main ore-body, as well as apatite-magnetite veins in altered wall rocks. Textural evidence (SEM-BSE images of these apatites shows primary bright, and secondary dark areas with inclusions of monazite/xenotime. The primary, monazite-free fluorapatite contains higher concentrations of Na, Si, S, and light rare earth elements (LREE. The apatite was altered by hydrothermal events that led to leaching of Na, Si, and REE + Y, and development of the dark apatite. The bright apatite yielded two U-Pb age populations, an older dominant age of 490 ± 21 Ma, similar to other iron deposits in the Bafq district and associated intrusions, and a younger age of 246 ± 17 Ma. The dark apatite yielded a U-Pb age of 437 ± 12 Ma. Our data suggest that hydrothermal magmatic fluids contributed to formation of the primary fluorapatite, and sodic and calcic alterations. The primary apatite reequilibrated with basinal brines in at least two regional extensions and basin developments in Silurian and Triassic in Central Iran.

Decreasing DOC trends in soil solution along the hillslopes at two IM sites in southern Sweden--geochemical modeling of organic matter solubility during acidification recovery.

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Löfgren, Stefan; Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Bringmark, Lage

2010-12-01

Numerous studies report increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during the last two decades in boreal lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Recently, a hypothesis was presented on how various spatial and temporal factors affect the DOC dynamics. It was concluded that declining sulphur deposition and thereby increased DOC solubility, is the most important driver for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the DOC levels should increase both in the soil solution as well as in the surrounding surface waters as soil pH rises and the ionic strength declines due to the reduced input of SO(4)(2-) ions. In this project a geochemical model was set up to calculate the net humic charge and DOC solubility trends in soils during the period 1996-2007 at two integrated monitoring sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of acidification recovery. The Stockholm Humic Model was used to investigate whether the observed DOC solubility is related to the humic charge and to examine how pH and ionic strength influence it. Soil water data from recharge and discharge areas, covering both podzols and riparian soils, were used. The model exercise showed that the increased net charge following the pH increase was in many cases counteracted by a decreased ionic strength, which acted to decrease the net charge and hence the DOC solubility. Thus, the recovery from acidification does not necessarily have to generate increasing DOC trends in soil solution. Depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the trends might be positive, negative or indifferent. Due to the high hydraulic connectivity with the streams, the explanations to the DOC trends in surface waters should be searched for in discharge areas and peat lands. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003

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Wanchamai Karntanut

2006-07-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab. The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using trend and seasonal models. It is found that mackerel, other food fish and squid catches tend to decrease, whereas the catches of scads tend to increase, and trash fish catches have no detectable trend up or down. Shrimp and lobster tend to decrease exponentially, and the trend of crab catch is constant. This study raises questions about the ecological and economic sustainability of the current fisheries policy in Thailand.

Modelling spatial patterns and temporal trends of wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain

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Jesús Barreal

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: The goal of this paper is to analyse the importance of the main contributing factors to the occurrence of wildfires. Area of study: We employ data from the region of Galicia during 2001-2010; although the similarities shared between this area and other rural areas may allow extrapolation of the present results. Material and Methods: The spatial dependence is analysed by using the Moran’s I and LISA statistics. We also conduct an econometric analysis modelling both, the number of fires and the relative size of afflicted woodland area as dependent variables, which depend on the climatic, land cover variables, and socio-economic characteristics of the affected areas. Fixed effects and random effect models are estimated in order to control for the heterogeneity between the Forest Districts in Galicia. Main results: Moran’s I and LISA statistics show that there is spatial dependence in the occurrence of Galician wildfires. Econometrics models show that climatology, socioeconomic variables, and temporal trends are also important to study both, the number of wildfires and the burned-forest ratio. Research highlights: We conclude that in addition to direct forest actions, other agricultural or social public plans, can help to reduce wildfires in rural areas or wildland-urban areas. Based on these conclusions, a number of guidelines are provided that may foster the development of better forest management policies in order to reduce the occurrence of wildfires.

Trends in Social Science: The Impact of Computational and Simulative Models

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Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario; Cecconi, Federico

This paper discusses current progress in the computational social sciences. Specifically, it examines the following questions: Are the computational social sciences exhibiting positive or negative developments? What are the roles of agent-based models and simulation (ABM), network analysis, and other "computational" methods within this dynamic? (Conte, The necessity of intelligent agents in social simulation, Advances in Complex Systems, 3(01n04), 19-38, 2000; Conte 2010; Macy, Annual Review of Sociology, 143-166, 2002). Are there objective indicators of scientific growth that can be applied to different scientific areas, allowing for comparison among them? In this paper, some answers to these questions are presented and discussed. In particular, comparisons among different disciplines in the social and computational sciences are shown, taking into account their respective growth trends in the number of publication citations over the last few decades (culled from Google Scholar). After a short discussion of the methodology adopted, results of keyword-based queries are presented, unveiling some unexpected local impacts of simulation on the takeoff of traditionally poorly productive disciplines.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

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Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

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Farzaneh Zolala

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

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Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beech wood export and import trends in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ranković Nenad

2004-01-01

Full Text Available By the establishment and analysis of the model of beech wood export and export trends in Serbia (by quantity and value, for the period 1988-2002 the regularities of the changes of their magnitude in time were defined. On this basis, the relations of import and export trends were analyzed. Based on the study elements, the potentials of beech sawlog and beech sawnwood export, as well as the potential economic effects, were pointed out.

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

2006-01-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed....

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Grunert, Klaus G

2006-09-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

2018-01-01

and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

2011-01-01

We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

Phytotoxic mechanisms of bur cucumber seed extracts on lettuce with special reference to analysis of chloroplast proteins, phytohormones, and nutritional elements.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seok-Min; Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Kang, Sang-Mo; Kim, Jin-Hyo; Lee, In-Yong; Moon, Bong-Kyu; Yoon, Byung-Wook; Lee, In-Jung

2015-12-01

Bioherbicides from plant extracts are an effective and environmentally friendly method to prevent weed growth. The present investigation was aimed at determining the inhibitory effect of bur cucumber seed extracts (BSE) on lettuce plant growth. Bur cucumber seeds were ground with water, and two different concentrations of seed extracts (10% and 20%) were prepared and applied to lettuce plants. Decreased plant height, number of leaves, leaf length, leaf width, anProd. Type: FTPd leaf area were found in lettuce exposed to BSE as compared with controls. A significant reduction in lettuce biomass was observed in 20% BSE-treated plants due to the presence of higher amounts of phenolic content in the extracts. Moreover, a significant inhibitory chemical, 2-linoleoyl glycerol, was identified in BSE extracts. The mechanism of plant growth inhibition was assayed in lettuce proteins by 2-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) and the LC-MS/MS method. In total, 57 protein spots were detected in plants treated with 20% BSE and control plants. Among these, 39 proteins were down-regulated and 18 proteins were up-regulated in plants exposed to 20% BSE as compared with controls. The presence of low levels of chlorophyll a/b binding protein and oxygen-evolving enhancer protein 1 in BSE-exposed plants reduced photosynthetic pigment synthesis and might be a reason for stunted plant growth. Indeed, the plant-growth stimulating hormone gibberellin was inhibited, and synthesis of stress hormones such as abscisic acid, jasmonic acid, and salicylic acid were triggered in lettuce by the effects of BSE. Uptake of essential nutrients, Ca, Fe, Mg, K, S, and Mo, was deficient and accumulation of the toxic ions Cu, Zn, and Na was higher in BSE-treated plants. The results of this study suggest that extracts of bur cucumber seeds can be an effective eco-friendly bioherbicide for weed control that work by inhibiting mechanisms of photosynthesis and regulating phytohormones and nutritional elements

Glucosinolates and isothiocyanates from broccoliseed extractsuppressproteinglycationand carbonylation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Hirano,

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Glucosinolates from brassica plants are hydrolyzed by internal or salivary myrosinase to produce isothiocyanates. Glucoraphanin, a major glucosinolate in broccoli, is hydrolyzed to sulforaphane (SFN, which exhibits antitumor and detoxification activities. Regarding the influence of broccoli and its constituents on the skin, a few studies have reported anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects. Recently, advanced glycation end products (AGEs and carbonyl proteins have been reported to accelerate skin aging. Objective: We evaluated the effects of broccoli seed extract (BSE and glucosinolates on protein glycation and carbonylation in vitro. Methods: To evaluate the effects of BSE and its constituents, protein glycation and carbonylation were induced by mixing fructose with bovine serum albumin (BSA and then measuring production of AGEs, fructosamine, and carbonyl proteins (CP. Production of CP after mixing fatty acids with BSA was also assessed. Furthermore, the effect of BSE and its constituents on CP production by human fibroblasts (TIG103 was examined. Results: BSE suppressed the production of AGEs, fructosamine, and CP after mixing fructose and BSA. BSE also suppressed production of CP when oxidized linoleic acid was mixed with BSA. Isothiocyanates, including SFN and iberin, suppressed fructose-based CP production, but SFN had no effect on CP production stimulated by oxidized linoleic acid. In contrast, glucosinolates from BSE did not suppress fructose-based CP production, but suppressed CP production due to oxidized linoleic acid. Among the glucosinolates in BSE, glucoberteroin showed the strongest suppression of CP production. CP production in fibroblasts was also suppressed by glucosinolates, including glucoiberin and glucoberteroin. Conclusions: BSE demonstrated anti-glycation and anti-carbonylation effects on protein reactions with fructose and oxidized fatty acids. Isothiocyanates suppressed protein carbonylation induced by

Using Google Trends for influenza surveillance in South China.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Min; Zhong, Haojie; He, Jianfeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Yang, Fen

2013-01-01

Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate influenza activity in many countries; however there is currently no Google Flu Trends or other Internet search data used for influenza surveillance in China. Influenza surveillance data from 2008 through 2011 were obtained from provincial CDC influenza-like illness and virological surveillance systems of Guangdong, a province in south China. Internet search data were downloaded from the website of Google Trends. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data and internet search trends. The correlation between CDC ILI surveillance and CDC virus surveillance was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.66). The strongest correlation was between the Google Trends term of Fever and ILI surveillance with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.79). When compared with influenza virological surveillance, the Google Trends term of Influenza A had the strongest correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.79) in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic period. This study shows that Google Trends in Chinese can be used as a complementary source of data for influenza surveillance in south China. More research in the future should develop new models using search trends in Chinese language to estimate local disease activity and detect early signals of outbreaks.

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

Science.gov (United States)

Wetherbee, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Latest Trends in German Political Socialisation Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Claussen, Bernhard

1979-01-01

Presents an overview of the most notable among recent books on political socialization in West Germany and indicates trends among these publications in areas of research methodology, objectives, stress on empirical studies, and theoretical models. (Author/DB)

Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brijesh Sathian

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Abul-basher, M M

1985-01-01

Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Model of high-tech businesses management under the trends of explicit and implicit knowledge markets: classification and business model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guzel Isayevna Gumerova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Objective to define the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo to elaborate classification of hightech businesses to elaborate the business model for hightech business management. Methods general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical cognition. Results the research presents a business model of hightech businesses management basing on the trends of explicit and explicit knowledge market with the dominating implicit knowledge market classification of hightech businesses taking into consideration the three types of economic activity possibilities to manage hightech business basing on its market cost technological innovations costs and business indicators. Scientific novelty the interpretation of the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo has been renewed the classification of hightech businesses has been elaborated for the first time allocating three groups of enterprises. Practical value theoretical significance ndash development of notional apparatus of hightech business management practical significancenbsp ndash grounding of the necessity to manage enterprises under development of explicit and explicit knowledge markets in Russia as a complex of capital and noncapital assets with dominating indicators of ldquomarket valuerdquo and ldquolife span of a companyrdquo. nbsp

Atypical scrapie prions from sheep and lack of disease in transgenic mice overexpressing human prion protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Wadsworth, Jonathan D F; Joiner, Susan; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Balkema-Buschmann, Anne; Spiropoulos, John; Simmons, Marion M; Griffiths, Peter C; Groschup, Martin H; Hope, James; Brandner, Sebastian; Asante, Emmanuel A; Collinge, John

2013-11-01

Public and animal health controls to limit human exposure to animal prions are focused on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), but other prion strains in ruminants may also have zoonotic potential. One example is atypical/Nor98 scrapie, which evaded statutory diagnostic methods worldwide until the early 2000s. To investigate whether sheep infected with scrapie prions could be another source of infection, we inoculated transgenic mice that overexpressed human prion protein with brain tissue from sheep with natural field cases of classical and atypical scrapie, sheep with experimental BSE, and cattle with BSE. We found that these mice were susceptible to BSE prions, but disease did not develop after prolonged postinoculation periods when mice were inoculated with classical or atypical scrapie prions. These data are consistent with the conclusion that prion disease is less likely to develop in humans after exposure to naturally occurring prions of sheep than after exposure to epizootic BSE prions of ruminants.

Determinants of public phobia about infectious diseases in South Korea: effect of health communication and gender difference.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Minsoo; Choi, Mankyu; Lee, Tae-Ro

2015-03-01

This study investigated the individual and social determinants of the public's phobia of infectious diseases in South Korea, where collective action was recently fueled by the public phobia over mad cow disease (bovine spongiform encephalopathy [BSE]). Gender-specific multivariate regression was used to compare the public perception of BSE and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The analysis results differentiated between the determinants of the phobia for the 2 diseases, BSE and HPAI (N = 1002). As with HIV/AIDS and leprosy, the public fear of HPAI was expressed as a disease phobia that seeks to ensure the social exclusion of infection sources, whereas the fear of BSE was influenced by social and communication factors. Therefore, BSE, unlike previous HPAI, can be rapidly amplified amid the growing distrust in health communication, in which case the social determinants of disease phobia are associated with communicator trust, social values, and political attitude toward diseases rather than disease perception. © 2013 APJPH.

The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez, R.; Gutierrez-Sanchez, R.; Nafidi, A.

2009-01-01

The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO 2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas . We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate

Covariant solutions of the Bethe-Salpeter equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, A.G.; Kusaka, K.; Simpson, K.M.

1997-01-01

There is a need for covariant solutions of bound state equations in order to construct realistic QCD based models of mesons and baryons. Furthermore, we ideally need to know the structure of these bound states in all kinematical regimes, which makes a direct solution in Minkowski space (without any 3-dimensional reductions) desirable. The Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) for bound states in scalar theories is reformulated and solved for arbitrary scattering kernels in terms of a generalized spectral representation directly in Minkowski space. This differs from the conventional Euclidean approach, where the BSE can only be solved in ladder approximation after a Wick rotation. (author)

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-10-01

Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2012-01-01

Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

Knowledge of breast cancer and its risk and protective factors among women in Riyadh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alam, Awatif Ali

2006-01-01

We conducted this study to assess the knowledge of breast cancer and sources of information about breast cancer among women in Riyadh. We also analyzed whether associations existed between demographic variables. Knowledge of breast cancer and, and the practice of breast self examination and use of mammography screening. Women interested in participating in this community based descriptive study provided data by completing a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Of 864 participating women, 84% were Saudi 45% were married and 67.8% had a university level education*0% were between the ages of 20 to 50 years. Knowledge of breast self examination (BSE) was high 82% (95% CI, 79.2%-84.4%) knew about BSE, 61% (95% CI confidence intervals [CI], 79.2%-84.4%) knew about BSE , while 61% [95%CI, 57.9%-64.5%] knew about mammography but only 41.2% [95% CI, 37.9%-44.5%] had performed BSE and 18.2% (95% CI, 15.5%-20.8%)had had mammography screening Knowledge of breast cancer, risk factors and protective factors for breast cancer was moderate. There was a statistically significant association between demographic characteristics (marital status, educational status and family history of breast cancer) and knowledge and practice of BSE and mammography. Though it has limitations, this study revealed an imbalance between the knowledge and practice of BSE among women. It also showed that there is only that there is only moderate knowledge of risks and protective factors for breast cancer and that knowledge and practice of BSE and mammography vary according to marital and educational status. Hence, frequent community based awareness programs are needed so that all women can know and practice BSE, which in turn helps to prevent breast cancer. (author)

Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2012-11-15

In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

Effects of Tillage Model on Healthy Plough Layer Structure and Its Development Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HU Jun-ming

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Soil cultivation is closely related to land productivity. Nutrient in plough layer is the key factor affecting the absorption and utilization of crop nutrients. Good plough layer structure is beneficial to the coordination of water, fertilizer, gas and heat. The depth of arable layer is related to tillage methods. Constructing good plough layer structure is conducive to crop growth and distribution. This paper reviewed both domestic and foreign researches regarding tillage models, which included conventional tillage, protective cultivation, rotary tillage, deep tillage, and so on. Based on the above research results, the effects of tillage models on the healthy soil layer construction were discussed from the soil bulk density, soil porosity, soil aggregates, infiltration of soil, soil heavy metals, soil respiration and the characters of root system. The deficiencies of current research were pointed out from several aspects such as tillage system, system positioning, tillage efficiency, suitable crop. In order to maximize the comprehensive production capacity of cultivated land resources and solve the contradiction between human being and land, this paper forecasted the development trend of ideal plough layer structure from four aspects:Cultivate patterns according to local conditions, the establishment of complex farming models, accelerating the research and application of new agricultural machinery, conducting systematic research of farmland microclimate environment. This will provide the theoretical basis and technical support for the optimal farming mode in agricultural production.

Energy models: methods and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reuter, A [Division of Energy Management and Planning, Verbundplan, Klagenfurt (Austria); Kuehner, R [IER Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany); Wohlgemuth, N [Department of Economy, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt (Austria)

1997-12-31

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of `energy models`, computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning. 2 figs., 19 refs.

Energy models: methods and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.

1996-01-01

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning

Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

2017-04-01

The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric G. Nolte

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964, and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

Ag Isotopic Evolution of the Mantle During Accretion: New Constraints from Pd and Ag Metal-Silicate Partitioning

Science.gov (United States)

Righter, K.; Schonbachler, M.

2018-01-01

Decay of (sup 107) Pd to (sup 107) Ag has a half-life of 6.5 times 10 (sup 6) mega-annums. Because these elements are siderophile but also volatile, they offer potential constraints on the timing of core formation as well as volatile addition. Initial modelling has shown that the Ag isotopic composition of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) can be explained if accretion occurs with late volatile addition. These arguments were tested for sensitivity for pre-cursor Pd/Ag contents, and for a fixed Pd/Ag ratio of the BSE of 0.1. New Ag and Pd partitioning data has allowed a better understanding of the partitioning behavior of Pd and Ag during core formation. The effects of S, C and Si, and the effect of high temperature and pressure has been evaluated. We can now calculate D(Ag) and D(Pd) over the wide range of PT conditions and variable metallic liquid compositions that are known during accretion. We then use this new partitioning information to revisit the Ag isotopic composition of the BSE during accretion.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios

Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Blaeuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

2010-01-01

Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Chanat, Jeffrey G.; Moyer, Douglas L.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hyer, Kenneth E.; Langland, Michael J.

2016-01-13

In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, estimated fluxes of nutrients and sediment from the bay’s nontidal tributaries into the estuary are the foundation of decision making to meet reductions prescribed by the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and are often the basis for refining scientific understanding of the watershed-scale processes that influence the delivery of these constituents to the bay. Two regression-based flux and trend estimation models, ESTIMATOR and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), were compared using data from 80 watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network (CBNTN). The watersheds range in size from 62 to 70,189 square kilometers and record lengths range from 6 to 28 years. ESTIMATOR is a constant-parameter model that estimates trends only in concentration; WRTDS uses variable parameters estimated with weighted regression, and estimates trends in both concentration and flux. WRTDS had greater explanatory power than ESTIMATOR, with the greatest degree of improvement evident for records longer than 25 years (30 stations; improvement in median model R2= 0.06 for total nitrogen, 0.08 for total phosphorus, and 0.05 for sediment) and the least degree of improvement for records of less than 10 years, for which the two models performed nearly equally. Flux bias statistics were comparable or lower (more favorable) for WRTDS for any record length; for 30 stations with records longer than 25 years, the greatest degree of improvement was evident for sediment (decrease of 0.17 in median statistic) and total phosphorus (decrease of 0.05). The overall between-station pattern in concentration trend direction and magnitude for all constituents was roughly similar for both models. A detailed case study revealed that trends in concentration estimated by WRTDS can operationally be viewed as a less-constrained equivalent to trends in concentration estimated by ESTIMATOR. Estimates of annual mean flow

Trend of surface solar radiation over Asia simulated by aerosol transport-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Takemura, T.; Ohmura, A.

2009-12-01

Long-term records of surface radiation measurements indicate a decrease in the solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s (“global dimming”), then its recovery afterward (“global brightening”) at many locations all over the globe [Wild, 2009]. On the other hand, the global brightening is delayed over the Asian region [Ohmura, 2009]. It is suggested that these trends of the global dimming and brightening are strongly related with a change in aerosol loading in the atmosphere which affect the climate change through the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects. In this study, causes of the trend of the surface solar radiation over Asia during last several decades are analyzed with an aerosol transport-climate model, SPRINTARS. SPRINTARS is coupled with MIROC which is a general circulation model (GCM) developed by Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) [Takemura et al., 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009]. The horizontal and vertical resolutions are T106 (approximately 1.1° by 1.1°) and 56 layers, respectively. SPRINTARS includes the transport, radiation, cloud, and precipitation processes of all main tropospheric aerosols (black and organic carbons, sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt). The model treats not only the aerosol mass mixing ratios but also the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as prognostic variables, and the nucleation processes of cloud droplets and ice crystals depend on the number concentrations of each aerosol species. Changes in the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations affect the cloud radiation and precipitation processes in the model. Historical emissions, that is consumption of fossil fuel and biofuel, biomass burning, aircraft emissions, and volcanic eruptions are prescribed from database provided by the Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (AeroCom) and the latest IPCC inventories

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Modelling residual stresses in friction stir welding of Al alloys - a review of possibilities and future trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hattel, Jesper Henri; Sonne, Mads Rostgaard; Tutum, Cem C.

2015-01-01

Residual stresses are very important in any joining process of materials since they act as pre-stresses in the loading situation of the joint, thereby affecting the final mechanical performance of the component. This is also the case for friction stir welding (FSW) which is a complex solid-state ......, numerical framework and application as well as putting them into proper context with respect to some of the new trends in the field, e.g. coupling with subsequent load analyses of the in-service situation or applying residual stress models of FSWin numerical optimization.......Residual stresses are very important in any joining process of materials since they act as pre-stresses in the loading situation of the joint, thereby affecting the final mechanical performance of the component. This is also the case for friction stir welding (FSW) which is a complex solid......-state joining process characterized by a pronounced multiphysical behaviour involving phenomena such as change of temperature, material flow, change of microstructures and formation of residual stresses. Thus, models of FSWare typically divided into thermal models, flow models, residual stress models...

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

1993-01-01

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

2018-01-01

Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

Trend in BMI z-score among Private Schools’ Students in Delhi using Multiple Imputation for Growth Curve Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinay K Gupta

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of the study is to assess the trend in mean BMI z-score among private schools’ students from their anthropometric records when there were missing values in the outcome. Methodology: The anthropometric measurements of student from class 1 to 12 were taken from the records of two private schools in Delhi, India from 2005 to 2010. These records comprise of an unbalanced longitudinal data that is not all the students had measurements recorded at each year. The trend in mean BMI z-score was estimated through growth curve model. Prior to that, missing values of BMI z-score were imputed through multiple imputation using the same model. A complete case analysis was also performed after excluding missing values to compare the results with those obtained from analysis of multiply imputed data. Results: The mean BMI z-score among school student significantly decreased over time in imputed data (β= -0.2030, se=0.0889, p=0.0232 after adjusting age, gender, class and school. Complete case analysis also shows a decrease in mean BMI z-score though it was not statistically significant (β= -0.2861, se=0.0987, p=0.065. Conclusions: The estimates obtained from multiple imputation analysis were better than those of complete data after excluding missing values in terms of lower standard errors. We showed that anthropometric measurements from schools records can be used to monitor the weight status of children and adolescents and multiple imputation using growth curve model can be useful while analyzing such data

Health Beliefs Concerning Breast Self-examination of Nurses in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sevinc Tastan, RN, PhD

2011-09-01

Conclusion: It is important to be aware of the health beliefs of nurses regarding BSE so that their own health can be protected and improved. Beneficial attitudes and behaviors of nurses regarding BSE will enable them to provide more effective services to women regarding breast cancer. Understanding the nurses’ health beliefs, attitude and behavior that are influential to make BSE will guide nursing practices towards early diagnosis of breast cancer at the societal level.

Trends in GIS: an environmental perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringrose, S.

1992-01-01

Trends in the Geographic Information System (GIS) have long been difficult to assess comprehensively because of the different perspective of the large number of players in the GIS game. This work represents an overview intended as background to the Workshop Proceedings. As the term GIS means different things to different people the intent is to start with definitions followed by a discussion of data models and inherent functionality of GIS systems. Recent trends are also considered in the context of environmental analyses. Problems arise when considering environmental monitoring due to the paucity of explicit functions dealing with change detection through time. Here parallels are drawn with recent studies which have used the integration of GIS and remotely sensed data. Reasons behind the functional limitations of GIS because apparent as the historical evolution of present day GIS systems is considered, although to some extent these are mitigated by future trends. Finally consideration is given to the role of GIS in assisting with mine site development and especially mine site rehabilitation. 23 refs

Spring Framework 5: Themes & Trends

CERN Document Server

CERN. Geneva

2017-01-01

Spring Framework 5.0/5.1, scheduled for release in early/late 2017, focuses on several key themes: reactive web applications based on Reactive Streams, comprehensive support for JDK 9 and HTTP/2, as well as the latest API generations in the Enterprise Java ecosystem. This talk presents the overall story in the context of wider industry trends, highlighting Spring’s unique programming model strategy.

THE EFFECT OF PHANTOM GROUPS ON GENETIC TREND

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Helena Theron

In an animal model evaluation of breeding values it is assumed that the base animals are all at the .... these values over the daughters of a sire reduces the stochastic component and represents a genetic ... To test whether the genetic trend is over- or underestimated, a regression model is fitted to the DYD ... parameter.

Priority setting in health care: trends and models from Scandinavian experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Bjørn

2013-08-01

The Scandinavian welfare states have public health care systems which have universal coverage and traditionally low influence of private insurance and private provision. Due to raises in costs, elaborate public control of health care, and a significant technological development in health care, priority setting came on the public agenda comparatively early in the Scandinavian countries. The development of health care priority setting has been partly homogeneous and appears to follow certain phases. This can be of broader interest as it may shed light on alternative models and strategies in health care priority setting. Some general trends have been identified: from principles to procedures, from closed to open processes, and from experts to participation. Five general approaches have been recognized: The moral principles and values based approach, the moral principles and economic assessment approach, the procedural approach, the expert based practice defining approach, and the participatory practice defining approach. There are pros and cons with all of these approaches. For the time being the fifth approach appears attractive, but its lack of true participation and the lack of clear success criteria may pose significant challenges in the future.

Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, R. A.; Lock, G.

2003-01-01

This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated in the da...... ¿ short sea or deep-sea shipping. Key Words: Air Pollution, Maritime Transport, Air Pollutant Emissions......This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated...... encountered since the statistical data collection was not undertaken with a view to this purpose are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission results per port and vessel type, to aggregate results for different types of movements...

Trends of some wintering waterbirds in Lazio (1993-2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimo Brunelli

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Since the 90s, censuses of wintering waterfowl have been carried out in the main wetlands of Lazio. We analysed the trends of 31 species in the 1993-2006 period (base year 1993 by means of TRIM (Trends and Indices Monitoring data software (Model 3. Among the species regularly recorded in the region, Ardea alba, Ardea cinerea, Bubulcus ibis and Anser anser showed a strong increase; Podiceps cristatus, Nycticorax nycticorax, Egretta garzetta, Phoenicopterus ruber, Anas penelope, Anas strepera, Anas crecca, Anas platyrhynchos, Anas clypeata, Netta rufina, Aythya ferina, Aythya nyroca, Circus aeruginosus, Fulica atra, Pluvialis apricaria and Vanellus vanellus showed a moderate increase; Gavia arctica, Tachybaptus ruficollis, Podiceps nigricollis, Phalacrocorax carbo, Aythya fuligula and Numenius arquata resulted “stable”; Botaurus stellaris, Tadorna tadorna, Anas acuta, Pluvialis squatarola and Calidris alpina showed an uncertain trend. The trends for most species are similar to those recorded at a national level.

Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John

2018-01-01

We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.

On the Nature of Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

2010-01-01

A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

No Trend in the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce

Science.gov (United States)

LI, JUI-CHUNG ALLEN; WU, LAWRENCE L.

2008-01-01

Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any trend in divorce transmission. To reconcile apparent differences in results, we note that the General Social Survey data used by Wolfinger lack information on marital duration, permitting analysis only for whether respondents have divorced by interview. As a result, an apparent decline in divorce transmission could be due to inadequate adjustments for the longer exposures to risk by earlier marriage cohorts, yielding a higher probability of divorce by interview for earlier cohorts relative to more recent cohorts even if divorce risks are identical across all marriage cohorts. We confirm this possibility by using a series of discrete-time hazard logistic regressions to investigate the sensitivity of estimates of trends in divorce transmission to different adjustments for exposure to risk. We conclude that there has been no trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. PMID:19110902

Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

Scrapie infectivity is quickly cleared in tissues of orally-infected farmed fish

OpenAIRE

Ingrosso, Loredana; Novoa, Beatriz; Valle, Andrea Z Dalla; Cardone, Franco; Aranguren, Raquel; Sbriccoli, Marco; Bevivino, Simona; Iriti, Marcello; Liu, Quanguo; Vetrugno, Vito; Lu, Mei; Faoro, Franco; Ciappellano, Salvatore; Figueras, Antonio; Pocchiari, Maurizio

2006-01-01

Abstract Background Scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) belongs to the group of animal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). BSE epidemic in the UK and elsewhere in Europe has been linked to the use of bovine meat and bone meals (MBM) in the feeding of cattle. There is concern that pigs, poultry and fish bred for human consumption and fed with infected MBM would eventually develop BSE or carry residual infectivity without disease. Although there has been no evidence of...

Current Trends in the Detection of Sociocultural Signatures: Data-Driven Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Bell, Eric B.; Corley, Courtney D.

2014-09-15

available that are shaping social computing as a strongly data-driven experimental discipline with an increasingly stronger impact on the decision-making process of groups and individuals alike. In this chapter, we review current advances and trends in the detection of sociocultural signatures. Specific embodiments of the issues discussed are provided with respect to the assessment of violent intent and sociopolitical contention. We begin by reviewing current approaches to the detection of sociocultural signatures in these domains. Next, we turn to the review of novel data harvesting methods for social media content. Finally, we discuss the application of sociocultural models to social media content, and conclude by commenting on current challenges and future developments.

Understanding the Correlations between Social Attention and Topic Trends of Scientific Publications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianlei Dong

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: We propose and apply a simplified nowcasting model to understand the correlations between social attention and topic trends of scientific publications. Design/methodology/approach: First, topics are generated from the obesity corpus by using the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA algorithm and time series of keyword search trends in Google Trends are obtained. We then establish the structural time series model using data from January 2004 to December 2012, and evaluate the model using data from January 2013. We employ a state-space model to separate different non-regression components in an observational time series (i.e. the tendency and the seasonality and apply the “spike and slab prior” and stepwise regression to analyze the correlations between the regression component and the social media attention. The two parts are combined using Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques to obtain our results. Findings: The results of our study show that (1 the number of publications on child obesity increases at a lower rate than that of diabetes publications; (2 the number of publication on a given topic may exhibit a relationship with the season or time of year; and (3 there exists a correlation between the number of publications on a given topic and its social media attention, i.e. the search frequency related to that topic as identified by Google Trends. We found that our model is also able to predict the number of publications related to a given topic. Research limitations: First, we study a correlation rather than causality between topics' trends and social media. As a result, the relationships might not be robust, so we cannot predict the future in the long run. Second, we cannot identify the reasons or conditions that are driving obesity topics to present such tendencies and seasonal patterns, so we might need to do “field” study in the future. Third, we need to improve the efficiency of our model by finding more efficient

Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; and Bzostek, J.

2009-09-30

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.