WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelling analysis indicating

  1. From phenology models to risk indicator analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márta Ladányi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we outline a phenology model for estimating budbreak and full bloom starting dates of sour cherry on the effective heat sums with reasonable accuracy. With the help of RegCM3.1 model the possible trends of the phenology timing in the middle of the 21st century the shift of 12-13 days earlier budbreak and 6-7 days earlier of full bloom due to the warmer weather conditions can be clearly indicated. For the climatic characterization of sour cherry bloom period in between 1984-2010 and for the description of the expected changes in this very sensitive period of sour cherry withrespect to the time slice 2021-2050, we introduce seven climatic indicators as artificial weather parameters such as the numbers of days when the temperature was under 0°C and above 10 °C, the numbers of days when there was no and more than 5 mm precipitation as well as the absolute minimum, the mean of minimum and the mean of maximum daily temperatures. We survey the changes of the indicators in the examined period (1984-2010 and, regarding the full bloom start model results, we formulate the expectations forthe future and make comparisons.

  2. Structured representation of drug indications: lexical and semantic analysis and object-oriented modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duclos, C; Venot, A

    2000-03-01

    No standardized representation of drug indications is currently available that could be used in drug knowledge bases. We describe an object-oriented representation of indications that should make it possible to develop new tools for selecting drugs and checking prescriptions in computerized drug prescription systems. The model was developed using the results of a lexical and semantic analysis of drug indications, collected into a single file and processed using natural language processing software. It distinguishes both the diseases for which the drug may be given and the efficiency of the drug for a given indication. Two aspects of the model were evaluated: the differences if two independent evaluators filled the attributes independently and the loss of information induced by the use of the model. A system based on this model, making it possible for the physician to select all the drugs satisfying various criteria, is also presented.

  3. ABOUT THE SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT OF YOUTH: GENERAL TASKS AND PRIVATE MODELS OF MARKET INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia V. Kontsevaya

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work attempt of system approach to the analysis of labor market of youth is made, the place and a role of youth labor exchange are dened, opportunities and methods of state regulation are opened, contradictions in the analysis of the main market indicators are designated.Within system approach to the analysis of dynamics of market processes modeling of the main indicators of labor market in regional scale is shown.This approach can be useful when developing effective and economically reasonable mechanisms of employment of youth, both at the level of regional services of employment, and in the state scale

  4. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

    2016-07-01

    coverage. The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports may reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis. It highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impact data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators, alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  5. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bachmair

    2015-09-01

    . The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis, and highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impacts data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  6. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

    2015-09-01

    also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis, and highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impacts data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  7. Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego García-Gusano

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants. In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and—to a lesser extent—fossil technologies with CO2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.

  8. Modeling Indicator Systems for Evaluating Environmental Sustainable Development Based on Factor Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hao; CHEN Xiaoling; HE Ying; HE Xiaorong; CAI Xiaobin; XU Keyan

    2006-01-01

    Indicator systems of environmental sustainable development in the Poyang Lake Basin are established from 51 elementary indexes by factor analysis, which is composed of four steps such as the factor model, the parameter estimation, the factor rotation and the factor score. Under the condition that the cumulative proportion is greater than 85%, 5 explicit factors of environmental sustainable development as well as its factor score by region are carried out. The result indicates some impact factors to the basin environmental in descending sort order are volume of water, volume of waste gas discharge, volume of solid wastes, the degree to comprehensive utilization of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes, the emission volume of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes. It is helpful and important to provide decision support for constituting sustainable development strategies and evaluate the sustainable development status of each city.

  9. Sensitivity analysis in oxidation ditch modelling: the effect of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abusam, A.A.A.; Keesman, K.J.; Straten, van G.; Spanjers, H.; Meinema, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of the factorial sensitivity analysis methodology in studying the influence of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices of an oxidation ditch simulation model (benchmark). Factorial sensitivity analysis investig

  10. MODELING EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Timofeev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with analysis of economic fundamental data and the issue of modeling of change in exchange rate EUR/USD. On the basis of statistical methods from the analysis was developed a model which helps to predict the range of currencies.

  11. PrimeSupplier Cross-Program Impact Analysis and Supplier Stability Indicator Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calluzzi, Michael

    2009-01-01

    PrimeSupplier, a supplier cross-program and element-impact simulation model, with supplier solvency indicator (SSI), has been developed so that the shuttle program can see early indicators of supplier and product line stability, while identifying the various elements and/or programs that have a particular supplier or product designed into the system. The model calculates two categories of benchmarks to determine the SSI, with one category focusing on agency programmatic data and the other focusing on a supplier's financial liquidity. PrimeSupplier was developed to help NASA smoothly transition design, manufacturing, and repair operations from the Shuttle program to the Constellation program, without disruption in the industrial supply base.

  12. Should researchers use single indicators, best indicators, or multiple indicators in structural equation models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayduk Leslie A

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural equation modeling developed as a statistical melding of path analysis and factor analysis that obscured a fundamental tension between a factor preference for multiple indicators and path modeling’s openness to fewer indicators. Discussion Multiple indicators hamper theory by unnecessarily restricting the number of modeled latents. Using the few best indicators – possibly even the single best indicator of each latent – encourages development of theoretically sophisticated models. Additional latent variables permit stronger statistical control of potential confounders, and encourage detailed investigation of mediating causal mechanisms. Summary We recommend the use of the few best indicators. One or two indicators are often sufficient, but three indicators may occasionally be helpful. More than three indicators are rarely warranted because additional redundant indicators provide less research benefit than single indicators of additional latent variables. Scales created from multiple indicators can introduce additional problems, and are prone to being less desirable than either single or multiple indicators.

  13. Building Analysis for Urban Energy Planning Using Key Indicators on Virtual 3d City Models - the Energy Atlas of Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, A.; Kolbe, T. H.

    2012-07-01

    In the context of increasing greenhouse gas emission and global demographic change with the simultaneous trend to urbanization, it is a big challenge for cities around the world to perform modifications in energy supply chain and building characteristics resulting in reduced energy consumption and carbon dioxide mitigation. Sound knowledge of energy resource demand and supply including its spatial distribution within urban areas is of great importance for planning strategies addressing greater energy efficiency. The understanding of the city as a complex energy system affects several areas of the urban living, e.g. energy supply, urban texture, human lifestyle, and climate protection. With the growing availability of 3D city models around the world based on the standard language and format CityGML, energy system modelling, analysis and simulation can be incorporated into these models. Both domains will profit from that interaction by bringing together official and accurate building models including building geometries, semantics and locations forming a realistic image of the urban structure with systemic energy simulation models. A holistic view on the impacts of energy planning scenarios can be modelled and analyzed including side effects on urban texture and human lifestyle. This paper focuses on the identification, classification, and integration of energy-related key indicators of buildings and neighbourhoods within 3D building models. Consequent application of 3D city models conforming to CityGML serves the purpose of deriving indicators for this topic. These will be set into the context of urban energy planning within the Energy Atlas Berlin. The generation of indicator objects covering the indicator values and related processing information will be presented on the sample scenario estimation of heating energy consumption in buildings and neighbourhoods. In their entirety the key indicators will form an adequate image of the local energy situation for

  14. THE ANALYSIS OF PROFITABILITY INDICATORS

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    SUCIU GHEORGHE

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of profitability indicators is an activity that should preoccupy all companies. Profitabilitydoes not mean only obtaining profit. A company is competitive if the ownership equity grows (the shareholders’money, the company has a profit that is comparable to that of other companies from the same area of activity,has a positive cash flow and the employees are satisfied with their salaries. Multiple indicators are used tomeasure performance: profit, commercial, economic, financial, investment rate of return, breakeven point,economic value added, net operating result.

  15. Non-linear analysis indicates chaotic dynamics and reduced resilience in model-based Daphnia populations exposed to environmental stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Ottermanns

    Full Text Available In this study we present evidence that anthropogenic stressors can reduce the resilience of age-structured populations. Enhancement of disturbance in a model-based Daphnia population lead to a repression of chaotic population dynamics at the same time increasing the degree of synchrony between the population's age classes. Based on the theory of chaos-mediated survival an increased risk of extinction was revealed for this population exposed to high concentrations of a chemical stressor. The Lyapunov coefficient was supposed to be a useful indicator to detect disturbance thresholds leading to alterations in population dynamics. One possible explanation could be a discrete change in attractor orientation due to external disturbance. The statistical analysis of Lyapunov coefficient distribution is proposed as a methodology to test for significant non-linear effects of general disturbance on populations. Although many new questions arose, this study forms a theoretical basis for a dynamical definition of population recovery.

  16. Analysis of indicators of an efficiency estimation of work of the employee and the business model of the organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury G. Odegov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In conditions of increasing competition, the problems of efficiency increase of activity of the company are significantly actualized, which directly depends on efficiency of labour activity of every employee and the implemented business model of the organization. On this basis the aim of the research is to analyze existing indicators of performance evaluation of the labour activities of both the employee and the business model of the organization.The theoretical basis of the study consists of principles of the economic theory, the works of native and foreign experts in the field of job evaluation. The information base of the research consists of economic and legal literature dealing with problems of this study, the data published in periodicals, materials of Russian scientific conferences, seminars, and Internet resources.In this article I have used and found the application of scientific methods of data collection, methods of research and methods of assessing their credibility: quantitative, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis.The modern business concern about the accumulation of wealth of shareholders, giving the company stability, growth and efficiency inevitably leads to necessity of creation and development of technologies aimed at improving the productivity of employees. The paper presents a comparative analysis of different approaches to assessing the labour effectiveness.The performance of the work is the ratio of the four essential parameters that determine the measure of efficiency of persons’ activity: the quantity and quality of result of work (a service, material product or technology in relation to spend time and cost on its production. The use of employees («performance» should be in the following way that they could achieve the planned results in the workplace. The authors have noted that to develop of technologies for the measurement of productivity it is very important to use the procedures and indicators that are

  17. Analysis of observations and modeling of criteria pollutants and photochemical age indicators during MILAGRO at Tenango del Aire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Suarez, L. G.

    2009-04-01

    We report measurements and modeling results from the mobile air quality monitoring unit and other instruments in Tenango del Aire (TA). Tenango del Aire is a small town in the mountain pass between the Siera de Chichinautzin and the Popocatepel and Iztachiuatl Volcanos. The pass joins the Valley of Mexico and the Valley of Cuernavaca. TA was the most shouter and equipped site on that flank of MILAGRO. We compare model results and measurements of O3, NOx, NOy, CO, SO2, CH2O, mixing high and some VOC speciated analysis. Indicators of photochemical age as O3/CO, NOy/CO, are also reported. Mean hourly averages for all the campaign are reported. Specific episodes are also analyzed in depth. Evidence of a polluted regional background atmosphere is shown. The basic average surface transport patern was as follows, from 09:00 to 12:00 winds from the north arrive to TA bringing fresh polluted parcels from the highly populated sowtheast parts of the MCMA. Between 12:00 and 13:00 hours a shift of wind direction brings back those or parts of those parcels and parcels farer away. Most of the times, this conditions continues until next morning when for few hours air again drains south from the valley of Mexico. Ozone reaches a maximum value between 12:00 and 13:00, and these values stay still until after 18:00. Average value of this plateau is 80 ppb. During this plateau indicators as O3/CO and NOy/CO show that air parcels passing over TA are photochemicaly aged.

  18. Financial indicators for municipalities: a quantitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sreĉko Devjak

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available From the characterization of Local Authority financing models and structures in Portugal and Slovenia, a set of financial and generic budget indicators has been established. These indicators may be used in a comparative analysis considering the Bragança District in Portugal, and municipalities of similar population size in Slovenia. The research identified significant differences, in terms of financing sources due to some discrepancies on financial models and competences of municipalities on each country. The results show that Portuguese and Slovenian municipalities, in 2003, for the economy indicator, had similar ranking behaviour, but in 2004, they changed this behaviour.

  19. MODELING OF INDICATORS OF LIVESTOCK IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina S. Darda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of livestock in food without dangerous country. The analysis of the dynamics of production indicators waspsmainly livestock products. The problems offorecasting-ing performance of LivestockDevelopment of the Russian Federationon the basis of the a-analytical models ofalignment and connected series.

  20. Probabilistic modelling of human exposure to intense sweeteners in Italian teenagers: validation and sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic model including indicators of market share and brand loyalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcella, D; Soggiu, M E; Leclercq, C

    2003-10-01

    For the assessment of exposure to food-borne chemicals, the most commonly used methods in the European Union follow a deterministic approach based on conservative assumptions. Over the past few years, to get a more realistic view of exposure to food chemicals, risk managers are getting more interested in the probabilistic approach. Within the EU-funded 'Monte Carlo' project, a stochastic model of exposure to chemical substances from the diet and a computer software program were developed. The aim of this paper was to validate the model with respect to the intake of saccharin from table-top sweeteners and cyclamate from soft drinks by Italian teenagers with the use of the software and to evaluate the impact of the inclusion/exclusion of indicators on market share and brand loyalty through a sensitivity analysis. Data on food consumption and the concentration of sweeteners were collected. A food frequency questionnaire aimed at identifying females who were high consumers of sugar-free soft drinks and/or of table top sweeteners was filled in by 3982 teenagers living in the District of Rome. Moreover, 362 subjects participated in a detailed food survey by recording, at brand level, all foods and beverages ingested over 12 days. Producers were asked to provide the intense sweeteners' concentration of sugar-free products. Results showed that consumer behaviour with respect to brands has an impact on exposure assessments. Only probabilistic models that took into account indicators of market share and brand loyalty met the validation criteria.

  1. Power law models of stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Man Kit

    Viewing the stock market as a self-organized system, Sornette and Johansen introduced physics-based models to study the dynamics of stock market crashes from the perspective of complex systems. This involved modeling stock market Indices using a mathematical power law exhibiting log-periodicity as the system approaches a market crash, which acts like a critical point in a thermodynamic system. In this dissertation, I aim to investigate stock indices to determine whether or not they exhibit log-periodic oscillations, according to the models proposed by Sornette, as they approach a crash. In addition to analyzing stock market crashes in the frequency domain using the discrete Fourier transform and the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, I perform a detailed analysis of the stock market crash models through parameter estimation and model testing. I find that the probability landscapes have a complex topography and that there is very little evidence that these phase transition-based models accurately describe stock market crashes.

  2. Lick Indices and Spectral Energy Distribution Analysis based on an M31 Star Cluster Sample: Comparisons of Methods and Models

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Zhou; Chen, Bingqiu; Jiang, Linhua; Bian, Fuyan; Li, Zhongmu

    2016-01-01

    Application of fitting techniques to obtain physical parameters---such as ages, metallicities, and $\\alpha$-element to iron ratios---of stellar populations is an important approach to understand the nature of both galaxies and globular clusters (GCs). In fact, fitting methods based on different underlying models may yield different results, and with varying precision. In this paper, we have selected 22 confirmed M31 GCs for which we do not have access to previously known spectroscopic metallicities. Most are located at approximately one degree (in projection) from the galactic center. We performed spectroscopic observations with the 6.5 m MMT telescope, equipped with its Red Channel Spectrograph. Lick/IDS absorption-line indices, radial velocities, ages, and metallicities were derived based on the $\\rm EZ\\_Ages$ stellar population parameter calculator. We also applied full spectral fitting with the ULySS code to constrain the parameters of our sample star clusters. In addition, we performed $\\chi^2_{\\rm min}$...

  3. A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarantola, Stefano [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,), 21020 (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Nardo, Michela [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy); Saisana, Michaela [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy); Gatelli, Debora [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy)

    2006-10-15

    In this paper we propose and test a generalisation of the method originally proposed by Sobol', and recently extended by Saltelli, to estimate the first-order and total effect sensitivity indices. Exploiting the symmetries and the dualities of the formulas, we obtain additional estimates of first-order and total indices at no extra computational cost. We test the technique on a case study involving the construction of a composite indicator of e-business readiness, which is part of the initiative 'e-Readiness of European enterprises' of the European Commission 'e-Europe 2005' action plan. The method is used to assess the contribution of uncertainties in (a) the weights of the component indicators and (b) the imputation of missing data on the composite indicator values for several European countries.

  4. Support vector regression and artificial neural network models for stability indicating analysis of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures in pharmaceutical preparation: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naguib, Ibrahim A; Darwish, Hany W

    2012-02-01

    A comparison between support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) multivariate regression methods is established showing the underlying algorithm for each and making a comparison between them to indicate the inherent advantages and limitations. In this paper we compare SVR to ANN with and without variable selection procedure (genetic algorithm (GA)). To project the comparison in a sensible way, the methods are used for the stability indicating quantitative analysis of mixtures of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride in binary mixtures as a case study in presence of their reported impurities and degradation products (summing up to 6 components) in raw materials and pharmaceutical dosage form via handling the UV spectral data. For proper analysis, a 6 factor 5 level experimental design was established resulting in a training set of 25 mixtures containing different ratios of the interfering species. An independent test set consisting of 5 mixtures was used to validate the prediction ability of the suggested models. The proposed methods (linear SVR (without GA) and linear GA-ANN) were successfully applied to the analysis of pharmaceutical tablets containing mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures. The results manifest the problem of nonlinearity and how models like the SVR and ANN can handle it. The methods indicate the ability of the mentioned multivariate calibration models to deconvolute the highly overlapped UV spectra of the 6 components' mixtures, yet using cheap and easy to handle instruments like the UV spectrophotometer.

  5. Improved partial least squares models for stability-indicating analysis of mebeverine and sulpiride mixtures in pharmaceutical preparation: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darwish, Hany W; Naguib, Ibrahim A

    2013-05-01

    Performance of partial least squares regression (PLSR) is enhanced in the presented work by three multivariate models, including weighted regression PLSR (Weighted-PLSR), genetic algorithm PLSR (GA-PLSR), and wavelet transform PLSR (WT-PLSR). The proposed models were applied for the stability-indicating analysis of mixtures of mebeverine hydrochloride (meb) and sulpiride (sul) in the presence of their reported impurities and degradation products. The work introduced in this paper aims to compare these different chemometric methods, showing the underlying algorithm for each and making a comparison of analysis results. For proper analysis, a 6-factor, 5-level experimental design was established resulting in a training set of 25 mixtures containing different ratios of the interfering species. A test set consisting of 5 mixtures was used to validate the prediction ability of the suggested models. Leave one out (LOO) and bootstrap were applied to predict number of PLS components. The GA-PLSR proposed method was successfully applied for the analysis of raw material (test set 101.03% ± 1.068, 101.47% ± 2.721 for meb and sul, respectively) and pharmaceutical tablets containing meb and sul mixtures (10.10% ± 0.566, 98.16% ± 1.081 for meb and sul).

  6. ANALYSIS OF CONTEMPORARY ANTHROPOMETRIC INDICES OF STUDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arabadzhi Lyudmila Ivanivna

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of 123 students’ somatotypes was performed in current research. Based on Chtetsov’ methodic of somatotypes estimation the evaluation of anthropometric indices was done and the dominant somatotype of modern students was revealed.

  7. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

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    Bikova E.V.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The comparative analysis of ecological indicators designed and specified for Moldova and similar indicators of the countries of CIS is made in the work. Some general items of information about power systems of the countries of CIS (the established capacities, manufacture of the electric power are given, the analysis of dynamics of emissions GHG- СО2, NOx, SO2 in Moldova and comparison with the emissions level in other countries of CIS is made.

  8. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

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    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  9. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Filipe C Mena; Reza Tavakol

    2000-10-01

    We discuss ways of quantifying structuration in relativistic cosmological settings, by employing a family of covariant density constrast indicators. We study the evolution of these indicators with time in the context of inhomogeneous Szekeres models. We find that different observers (having either different spatial locations or different indicators) see different evolutions for the density contrast, which may or may not be monotonically increasing with time. We also find that monotonicity seems to be related to the initial conditions of the model, which may be of potential interest in connection with debates regarding gravitational entropy and the arrow of time.

  10. The braking indices in pulsar emission models

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, F; Gil, J; Gil, Janusz

    2003-01-01

    Using the method proposed in a previous paper, we calculate pulsar braking indices in the models with torque contributions from both inner and outer accelerating regions, assuming that the interaction between them is negligible. We suggest that it is likely that the inverse Compton scattering induced polar vacuum gap and the outer gap coexist in the pulsar magnetosphere. We include the new near threshold vacuum gap models with curvature-radiation and inverse Compton scattering induced cascades, respectively; and find that these models can well reproduce the measured values of the braking indices.

  11. An Entangled Model for Sustainability Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cedano, Karla G.; Martínez, Manuel; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays the challenge for humanity is to find pathways towards sustainable development. Decision makers require a set of sustainability indicators to know if the sustainability strategies are following those pathways. There are more than one hundred sustainability indicators but they differ on their relative importance according to the size of the locality and change on time. The resources needed to follow these sustainability indicators are scarce and in some instances finite, especially in smaller regions. Therefore strategies to select set of these indicators are useful for decision makers responsible for monitoring sustainability. In this paper we propose a model for the identification and selection of a set of sustainability indicators that adequately represents human systems. In developing this model, we applied evolutionary dynamics in a space where sustainability indicators are fundamental entities interconnected by an interaction matrix. we used a fixed interaction that simulates the current context for the city of Cuernavaca, México as an example. We were able to identify and define relevant sets indicators for the system by using the Pareto principle. In this case we identified a set of sixteen sustainability indicators with more than 80% of the total strength. This set presents resilience to perturbations. For the Tangled Nature framework we provided a manner of treating different contexts (i.e., cities, counties, states, regions, countries, continents or the whole planet), dealing with small dimensions. This model provides decision makers with a valuable tool to select sustainability indicators set for towns, cities, regions, countries, continents or the entire planet according to a coevolutionary framework. The social legitimacy can arise from the fact that each individual indicator must be selected from those that are most important for the subject community. PMID:26295948

  12. An Entangled Model for Sustainability Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Pável; Del Río, Jesús A; Cedano, Karla G; Martínez, Manuel; Jensen, Henrik J

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays the challenge for humanity is to find pathways towards sustainable development. Decision makers require a set of sustainability indicators to know if the sustainability strategies are following those pathways. There are more than one hundred sustainability indicators but they differ on their relative importance according to the size of the locality and change on time. The resources needed to follow these sustainability indicators are scarce and in some instances finite, especially in smaller regions. Therefore strategies to select set of these indicators are useful for decision makers responsible for monitoring sustainability. In this paper we propose a model for the identification and selection of a set of sustainability indicators that adequately represents human systems. In developing this model, we applied evolutionary dynamics in a space where sustainability indicators are fundamental entities interconnected by an interaction matrix. we used a fixed interaction that simulates the current context for the city of Cuernavaca, México as an example. We were able to identify and define relevant sets indicators for the system by using the Pareto principle. In this case we identified a set of sixteen sustainability indicators with more than 80% of the total strength. This set presents resilience to perturbations. For the Tangled Nature framework we provided a manner of treating different contexts (i.e., cities, counties, states, regions, countries, continents or the whole planet), dealing with small dimensions. This model provides decision makers with a valuable tool to select sustainability indicators set for towns, cities, regions, countries, continents or the entire planet according to a coevolutionary framework. The social legitimacy can arise from the fact that each individual indicator must be selected from those that are most important for the subject community.

  13. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  14. Gold resource modeling using pod indicator kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Rauf, Abdul; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    This paper describes an implementation of the pod indicator kriging method used to gold resource modeling. Method such as ordinary kriging estimate the mean grade of a block that is fairly large. The usual outcome is that large blocks rarely turn out to be all ore or all waste, thus making reserve estimates an incorrect estimate of what will be mined. Pod indicator kriging offers a solution to this problem by estimating the distribution of grade values within a large block, rather than just estimating the mean grade of the block. Knowing the distribution of grade value within the block, it is then easy to calculate the proportion of the block that is above cutoff grade and the grade of the ore above cutoff grade. This research shows that the pod indicator kriging model is quite applicable and reliable in gold resourcemodeling.

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following......, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis....

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a radionuclide transfer model describing contaminated vegetation in Fukushima prefecture, using Morris and Sobol' - Application of sensitivity analysis on a radionuclides transfer model in the environment describing weeds contamination in Fukushima Prefecture, using Morris method and Sobol' indices indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicoulaud-Gouin, V.; Metivier, J.M.; Gonze, M.A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E (France); Garcia-Sanchez, L. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRPENV/SERIS/L2BT (France)

    2014-07-01

    The increasing spatial and temporal complexity of models demands methods capable of ranking the influence of their large numbers of parameters. This question specifically arises in assessment studies on the consequences of the Fukushima accident. Sensitivity analysis aims at measuring the influence of input variability on the output response. Generally, two main approaches are distinguished (Saltelli, 2001, Iooss, 2011): - Screening approach, less expensive in computation time and allowing to identify non influential parameters; - Measures of importance, introducing finer quantitative indices. In this category, there are regression-based methods, assuming a linear or monotonic response (Pearson coefficient, Spearman coefficient), and variance-based methods, without assumptions on the model but requiring an increasingly prohibitive number of evaluations when the number of parameters increases. These approaches are available in various statistical programs (notably R) but are still poorly integrated in modelling platforms of radioecological risk assessment. This work aimed at illustrating the benefits of sensitivity analysis in the course of radioecological risk assessments This study used two complementary state-of-art global sensitivity analysis methods: - The screening method of Morris (Morris, 1991; Campolongo et al., 2007) based on limited model evaluations with a one-at-a-time (OAT) design; - The variance-based Sobol' sensitivity analysis (Saltelli, 2002) based a large number of model evaluations in the parameter space with a quasi-random sampling (Owen, 2003). Sensitivity analyses were applied on a dynamic Soil-Plant Deposition Model (Gonze et al., submitted to this conference) predicting foliar concentration in weeds after atmospheric radionuclide fallout. The Soil-Plant Deposition Model considers two foliage pools and a root pool, and describes foliar biomass growth with a Verhulst model. The developed semi-analytic formulation of foliar concentration

  17. Prediction Models of Retention Indices for Increased Confidence in Structural Elucidation during Complex Matrix Analysis: Application to Gas Chromatography Coupled with High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossin, Eric; Martin, Elyette; Diana, Pierrick; Castellon, Antonio; Monge, Aurelien; Pospisil, Pavel; Bentley, Mark; Guy, Philippe A

    2016-08-02

    Monitoring of volatile and semivolatile compounds was performed using gas chromatography (GC) coupled to high-resolution electron ionization mass spectrometry, using both headspace and liquid injection modes. A total of 560 reference compounds, including 8 odd n-alkanes, were analyzed and experimental linear retention indices (LRI) were determined. These reference compounds were randomly split into training (n = 401) and test (n = 151) sets. LRI for all 552 reference compounds were also calculated based upon computational Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) models, using two independent approaches RapidMiner (coupled to Dragon) and ACD/ChromGenius software. Correlation coefficients for experimental versus predicted LRI values calculated for both training and test set compounds were calculated at 0.966 and 0.949 for RapidMiner and at 0.977 and 0.976 for ACD/ChromGenius, respectively. In addition, the cross-validation correlation was calculated at 0.96 from RapidMiner and the residual standard error value obtained from ACD/ChromGenius was 53.635. These models were then used to predict LRI values for several thousand compounds reported present in tobacco and tobacco-related fractions, plus a range of specific flavor compounds. It was demonstrated that using the mean of the LRI values predicted by RapidMiner and ACD/ChromGenius, in combination with accurate mass data, could enhance the confidence level for compound identification from the analysis of complex matrixes, particularly when the two predicted LRI values for a compound were in close agreement. Application of this LRI modeling approach to matrixes with unknown composition has already enabled the confirmation of 23 postulated compounds, demonstrating its ability to facilitate compound identification in an analytical workflow. The goal is to reduce the list of putative candidates to a reasonable relevant number that can be obtained and measured for confirmation.

  18. Analysis of Pitch Gear Deterioration using Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This work concerns a case study in the context of risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines. For wind turbines with electrical pitch systems, deterioration can generally be observed at the pitch gear teeth; especially at the point where the blades are located during normal...... of the damage, and can be used for Bayesian updating of a damage model used for risk-based decision making. For this decision problem, the risk of failure should be compared to the cost of preventive maintenance. The hypothesis that the maximum pitch motor torque is an indicator of the damage size is supported...... by results from a measurement campaign where measurements are available both before and after maintenance was performed. The loads dramatically decreased after the maintenance. However, after a few more months of measurements, and by including data from the SCADA system, it became obvious that seasonal...

  19. Thermal Indices and Thermophysiological Modeling for Heat Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havenith, George; Fiala, Dusan

    2015-12-15

    The assessment of the risk of human exposure to heat is a topic as relevant today as a century ago. The introduction and use of heat stress indices and models to predict and quantify heat stress and heat strain has helped to reduce morbidity and mortality in industrial, military, sports, and leisure activities dramatically. Models used range from simple instruments that attempt to mimic the human-environment heat exchange to complex thermophysiological models that simulate both internal and external heat and mass transfer, including related processes through (protective) clothing. This article discusses the most commonly used indices and models and looks at how these are deployed in the different contexts of industrial, military, and biometeorological applications, with focus on use to predict related thermal sensations, acute risk of heat illness, and epidemiological analysis of morbidity and mortality. A critical assessment is made of tendencies to use simple indices such as WBGT in more complex conditions (e.g., while wearing protective clothing), or when employed in conjunction with inappropriate sensors. Regarding the more complex thermophysiological models, the article discusses more recent developments including model individualization approaches and advanced systems that combine simulation models with (body worn) sensors to provide real-time risk assessment. The models discussed in the article range from historical indices to recent developments in using thermophysiological models in (bio) meteorological applications as an indicator of the combined effect of outdoor weather settings on humans.

  20. Identification, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Characterizing the Indicators of Asset Structure in the Credit Institutions Operating in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel CALINICA

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to accurately characterize the dynamics of the structural indicators of the assets in the credit institutions operating in Romania through an empirical mathematical model of dual function: regulation and control. The model can be used to predict the future evolution of the economic processes involved, or to study how to act upon them (management in case of changes in the environment around them (e.g. the impact of reducing the minimum compulsory reserve requirements on credit etc.

  1. Identification, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Characterizing the Indicators of Asset Structure in the Credit Institutions Operating in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel CALINICA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to accurately characterize the dynamics of the structural indicators of the assets in the credit institutions operating in Romania through an empirical mathematical model of dual function:regulation and control. The model can be used to predict the future evolution of the economic processes involved, or to study how to act upon them (management in case of changes in the environment around them (e.g. the impact of reducing the minimum compulsory reserve requirements on credit etc..

  2. 国家创新模型及评价指标体系研究%The Analysis of National Innovation Model and Evaluation System of Indicators

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张宏性; 程晞

    2005-01-01

    The national innovation is a circle which consist of four factors, three processes, two conformities and one upgrade. The factors are mortivity, resource, action and worthiness. The processes are drive,transform and feedback. The conformities is about main body of national innovation and predominance convergency. The upgrade is refer to the national resource upgrade. We draw a frame to explain this model and design a suit of statistical indicators it.

  3. Evaluating the Environmental Health Effect of Bamboo-Derived Volatile Organic Compounds through Analysis the Metabolic Indices of the Disorder Animal Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Ming; HU Zheng Qing; STRONG P James; SMIT Anne-Marie; XU Jian Wei; FAN Jun; WANG Hai Long

    2015-01-01

    Objective To identify the bamboo VOCs (volatile organic compounds) effect on animal physiological indices, which associated with human health. Methods GC/MS was used to analyze the volatile organic compounds from Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys heterocyla cv. pubescens). The effect of VOCs on environmental health was evaluated by analyzing the metabolic indices of the type 2 diabetic mouse model. Results Spectra of VOC generated by GC/MS were blasted against an in-house MS library confirming the identification of 33 major components that were manually validated. The relative constituent compounds as a percentage of total VOCs determined were alcohols (34.63%), followed by ether (22.02%), aldehyde (15.84%), ketone (11.47%), ester (4.98%), terpenoid (4.38%), and acids (3.83%). Further experimentation established that the metabolic incidence of the disease can be improved if treated with vanillin, leaf alcohol,β-ionone and methyl salicylate. The effects of these VOCs on type 2 diabetes were evident in the blood lipid and blood glucose levels. Conclusion Our model suggests that VOCs can potentially control the metabolic indices in type 2 diabetes mice. This experiment data also provides the scientific basis for the comprehensive utilization of ornamental bamboos and some reference for other similar study of environmental plants.

  4. Model-based evaluation of scientific impact indicators

    CERN Document Server

    Medo, Matus

    2016-01-01

    Using bibliometric data artificially generated through a model of citation dynamics calibrated on empirical data, we compare several indicators for the scientific impact of individual researchers. The use of such a controlled setup has the advantage of avoiding the biases present in real databases, and allows us to assess which aspects of the model dynamics and which traits of individual researchers a particular indicator actually reflects. We find that the simple citation average performs well in capturing the intrinsic scientific ability of researchers, whatever the length of their career. On the other hand, when productivity complements ability in the evaluation process, the notorious $h$ and $g$ indices reveal their potential, yet their normalized variants do not always yield a fair comparison between researchers at different career stages. Notably, the use of logarithmic units for citation counts allows us to build simple indicators with performance equal to that of $h$ and $g$. Our analysis may provide ...

  5. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  6. Regional knowledge economy development indicative planning system conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Davidovna Vaisman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research is the processes of Russian knowledge economy development, its progress on the regional level is taken as a theme, which determined the purpose of research: development of the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model. The methodological base of the research is the knowledge economy concept and supply and demand theory, the methods of comparative and system analysis and theoretical modeling; common generalization and classification methods and regression models are used in the work. As a result, we managed to create the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model, which includes the choice of the types of indicative plans and the justification for the complex of indicators according to the stated requirements to this complex. The model of supply and demand for knowledge dependency from the knowledge cost, allowing to determine the acceptable range for the indicators proceeding from the demand and supply levels and their interrelation, is developed. The obtained results may be used by the regional government authorities while planning the regional innovative development and consulting companies while making the proposals for this development

  7. Scaling Analysis of Author Level Bibliometric Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna; Larsen, Birger

    2014-01-01

    Despite of the concerns from the bibliometric community, evaluation of the individual through bibliometric indices is already performed as a form of ‘pseudo peer review’ in selection of candidates for tenure, in background checks of potential employees’ publicationand citation impact, and in appr...

  8. Genetic analysis of processed in-line mastitis indicator data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Peter; Løvendahl, Peter

    2013-01-01

    on exponential smoothing of the SCC values followed by factor analysis for estimation of the latent variable EMR was used. Finally, EMR was expressed as a continuum on the interval [0;1] using sigmoid transformation. Thus, an EMR value close to zero indicates low risk of mastitis and a value close to one...... indicates high risk of mastitis. The EMR values were summarized for each cow using the log-transformed median EMR. A second trait was defined as the median of the log-transformed SCC values from 5 to 305 d in milk. A bivariate animal model was used for estimation of co-variance components for the 2 traits...

  9. Safety models incorporating graph theory based transit indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Liliana; Sayed, Tarek; Wahba, Mohamed M

    2013-01-01

    There is a considerable need for tools to enable the evaluation of the safety of transit networks at the planning stage. One interesting approach for the planning of public transportation systems is the study of networks. Network techniques involve the analysis of systems by viewing them as a graph composed of a set of vertices (nodes) and edges (links). Once the transport system is visualized as a graph, various network properties can be evaluated based on the relationships between the network elements. Several indicators can be calculated including connectivity, coverage, directness and complexity, among others. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between network-based transit indicators and safety. The study develops macro-level collision prediction models that explicitly incorporate transit physical and operational elements and transit network indicators as explanatory variables. Several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models were developed using a generalized linear regression technique, assuming a negative binomial error structure. The models were grouped into four main themes: transit infrastructure, transit network topology, transit route design, and transit performance and operations. The safety models showed that collisions were significantly associated with transit network properties such as: connectivity, coverage, overlapping degree and the Local Index of Transit Availability. As well, the models showed a significant relationship between collisions and some transit physical and operational attributes such as the number of routes, frequency of routes, bus density, length of bus and 3+ priority lanes.

  10. Moving Mini-Max - a new indicator for technical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Silagadze, Z.K.

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new indicator for technical analysis. The indicator emphasizes maximums and minimums in price series with inherent smoothing and has a potential to be useful in both mechanical trading rules and chart pattern analysis.

  11. Model-based evaluation of scientific impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medo, Matúš; Cimini, Giulio

    2016-09-01

    Using bibliometric data artificially generated through a model of citation dynamics calibrated on empirical data, we compare several indicators for the scientific impact of individual researchers. The use of such a controlled setup has the advantage of avoiding the biases present in real databases, and it allows us to assess which aspects of the model dynamics and which traits of individual researchers a particular indicator actually reflects. We find that the simple average citation count of the authored papers performs well in capturing the intrinsic scientific ability of researchers, regardless of the length of their career. On the other hand, when productivity complements ability in the evaluation process, the notorious h and g indices reveal their potential, yet their normalized variants do not always yield a fair comparison between researchers at different career stages. Notably, the use of logarithmic units for citation counts allows us to build simple indicators with performance equal to that of h and g . Our analysis may provide useful hints for a proper use of bibliometric indicators. Additionally, our framework can be extended by including other aspects of the scientific production process and citation dynamics, with the potential to become a standard tool for the assessment of impact metrics.

  12. Model-Free importance indicators for dependent input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, A.; Ratto, M.; Tarantola, S

    2001-07-01

    A number of methods are available to asses uncertainty importance in the predictions of a simulation model for orthogonal sets of uncertain input factors. However, in many practical cases input factors are correlated. Even for these cases it is still possible to compute the correlation ratio and the partial (or incremental) importance measure, two popular sensitivity measures proposed in the recent literature on the subject. Unfortunately, the existing indicators of importance have limitations in terms of their use in sensitivity analysis of model output. Correlation ratios are indeed effective for priority setting (i.e. to find out what input factor needs better determination) but not, for instance, for the identification of the subset of the most important input factors, or for model simplification. In such cases other types of indicators are required that can cope with the simultaneous occurrence of correlation and interaction (a property of the model) among the input factors. In (1) the limitations of current measures of importance were discussed and a general approach was identified to quantify uncertainty importance for correlated inputs in terms of different betting contexts. This work was later submitted to the Journal of the American Statistical Association. However, the computational cost of such approach is still high, as it happens when dealing with correlated input factors. In this paper we explore how suitable designs could reduce the numerical load of the analysis. (Author) 11 refs.

  13. Linear indices in nonlinear structural equation models : best fitting proper indices and other composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Henseler, J.

    2011-01-01

    The recent advent of nonlinear structural equation models with indices poses a new challenge to the measurement of scientific constructs. We discuss, exemplify and add to a family of statistical methods aimed at creating linear indices, and compare their suitability in a complex path model with line

  14. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  15. Genetic analysis of processed in-line mastitis indicator data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Peter; Løvendahl, Peter

    2013-01-01

    on exponential smoothing of the SCC values followed by factor analysis for estimation of the latent variable EMR was used. Finally, EMR was expressed as a continuum on the interval [0;1] using sigmoid transformation. Thus, an EMR value close to zero indicates low risk of mastitis and a value close to one...... indicates high risk of mastitis. The EMR values were summarized for each cow using the log-transformed median EMR. A second trait was defined as the median of the log-transformed SCC values from 5 to 305 d in milk. A bivariate animal model was used for estimation of co-variance components for the 2 traits....... The fixed part of the model included herd and parity. Estimates of heritability were 0.08 (SE = 0.04) and 0.14 (SE = 0.05) for EMR and SCC, respectively. The genetic correlation between the 2 traits was 0.97 (SE = 0.08). The high genetic correlation indicates that the 2 traits are influenced by common genes...

  16. Enhancement of damage indicators in wavelet and curvature analysis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B K Raghu Prasad; N Lakshmanan; K Muthumani; N Gopalakrishnan

    2006-08-01

    Damage in a structural element induces a small perturbation in its static or dynamic displacement profile which can be captured by wavelet analysis. The paper presents the wavelet analysis of damaged linear structural elements using DB4 or BIOR6·8 family of wavelets. An expression is developed for computing the natural frequencies of a damaged beam using first order perturbation theory. Starting with a localized reduction of EI at the mid-span of a simply supported beam, damage modelling is done for a typical steel beam element. Wavelet analysis is performed for this damage model for displacement, rotation and curvature mode shapes as well as static displacement profiles. Damage indicators like displacement, slope and curvature are magnified under higher modes. Instantaneous step-wise linearity is assumed for all the nonlinear elements. A localization scheme with arbitrararily located curvature nodes within a pseudo span is developed for steady state dynamic loads, such that curvature response and damages are maximized and the scheme is numerically tested and proved.

  17. Should Habitat Trading Be Based on Mitigation Ratios Derived from Landscape Indices? A Model-Based Analysis of Compensatory Restoration Options for the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Douglas J.; Jones, Michael L.

    2008-10-01

    Many species of conservation concern are spatially structured and require dispersal to be persistent. For such species, altering the distribution of suitable habitats on the landscape can affect population dynamics in ways that are difficult to predict from simple models. We argue that for such species, individual-based and spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) should be used to determine appropriate levels of off-site restoration to compensate for on-site loss of ecologic resources. Such approaches are necessary when interactions between biologic processes occur at different spatial scales (i.e., local [recruitment] and landscape [migration]). The sites of restoration and habitat loss may be linked to each other, but, more importantly, they may be linked to other resources in the landscape by regional biologic processes, primarily migration. The common management approach for determining appropriate levels of off-site restoration is to derive mitigation ratios based on best professional judgment or pre-existing data. Mitigation ratios assume that the ecologic benefits at the site of restoration are independent of the ecologic costs at the site of habitat loss. Using an SEPM for endangered red-cockaded woodpeckers, we show that the spatial configuration of habitat restoration can simultaneously influence both the rate of recruitment within breeding groups and the rate of migration among groups, implying that simple mitigation ratios may be inadequate.

  18. Approaches to Bioeconomic Modelling in correlation with Consumer Model and Biodiversity Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipate Iudith

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analysed the characteristics of bio-economic models in agricultural systems and agro-biodiversity indicators. The classical bioeconomic models are used to analyze the human consumption of ecosystems for production. The analysis focuses on changes in a limited set of agrobiodiversity indicators that matter to human beings. In existing bioeconomic models incorporate ecological complexities and dynamics is limited. Although bioeconomic model provides useful methods to integrate economic values into environmental analyses, improved the dynamic interrelationships between natural processes and socio-economic systems is needed to allow an integrated assessment of multiple values. The overview will enable a more informed decision about whether and how bio-economic models/modeling can contribute to the development of integrated environmental decision support tools. The bio economic modeling it is important for evaluating the costs and benefits associated with environmental resource use.

  19. Sustainable Process Design under uncertainty analysis: targeting environmental indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    from algae biomass is used as a case study. The results indicate there are considerable uncertainties in the calculated environmental indicators as revealed by CDFs. The underlying sources of these uncertainties are indeed the significant variation in the databases used for the LCA analysis......This study focuses on uncertainty analysis of environmental indicators used to support sustainable process design efforts. To this end, the Life Cycle Assessment methodology is extended with a comprehensive uncertainty analysis to propagate the uncertainties in input LCA data to the environmental...... indicators. The resulting uncertainties in the environmental indicators are then represented by empirical cumulative distribution function, which provides a probabilistic basis for the interpretation of the indicators. In order to highlight the main features of the extended LCA, the production of biodiesel...

  20. Factor analysis improves the selection of prescribing indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Hanne Marie Skyggedal; Søndergaard, Jens; Sokolowski, Ineta

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test a method for improving the selection of indicators of general practitioners' prescribing. METHODS: We conducted a prescription database study including all 180 general practices in the County of Funen, Denmark, approximately 472,000 inhabitants. Principal factor analysis was used...... indicators directly quantifying choice of coxibs, indicators measuring expenditure per Defined Daily Dose, and indicators taking risk aspects into account, (2) "Frequent NSAID prescribing", comprising indicators quantifying prevalence or amount of NSAID prescribing, and (3) "Diverse NSAID choice", comprising...... appropriate and inappropriate prescribing, as revealed by the correlation of the indicators in the first factor. CONCLUSION: Correlation and factor analysis is a feasible method that assists the selection of indicators and gives better insight into prescribing patterns....

  1. Are 't Hooft indices constrained in preon models with complementarity\\?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Yuko

    1989-03-01

    We present a counterexample to the conjecture that the 't Hooft indices for composite models satisfying complementarity are bounded in magnitude by 1. The model is based on the metacolor group SU(9)MC with two preons in the representation 36 and two preons in the representation 126¯. We obtain the 't Hooft index 12 for this model.

  2. Genetic analysis of field and physiological indicators of drought ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-10-10

    Oct 10, 2011 ... In order to study the inheritance of field, physiological and metabolite indicators of drought tolerance in wheat .... and the quantum yield was recorded after dark adaptation using a ..... The theory and analysis of diallel crosses.

  3. Environmental problems indicator under environmental modeling toward sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sutthichaimethee

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply a model to the study and analysis of environmental and natural resource costs created in supply chains of goods and services produced in Thailand, and propose indicators for environmental problem management, caused by goods and services production, based on concepts of sustainable production and consumer behavior. The research showed that the highest environmental cost in terms of Natural Resource Materials was from pipelines and gas distribution, while the lowest was for farming coconuts. The highest environmental cost in terms of Energy and Transportation was for iron and steel. The highest environmental cost in the category of Fertilizer and Pesticides was for oil palm. For Sanitation Services, the highest environmental cost was movie theaters. Overall, the lowest environmental cost for all categories, except Natural Resource Materials, was for petroleum and refineries. Based on the cost index, coconut farming gained the highest Real Benefit to the farm owner, while pipelines and gas distribution had the lowest Real Benefit. If Thailand were to use a similar environmental problem indicator, it could be applied to formulate efficient policy and strategy for the country in three areas, namely social, economic, and environmental development.

  4. Mental retardation after prenatal exposure. Re-analysis indicated

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paile, W. [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK), Helsinki (Finland). Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority

    2000-05-01

    The current risk assessment for severe mental retardation after prenatal exposure to the A-bomb radiation is based on 21 cases exposed to more than 0.005 Gy, of which 17 were exposed in the most sensitive period 8-15 weeks p.c. The latest analysis, applying the best fitting model, indicates a threshold with a lower 95% bound of 0.06-0.31 Gy, depending on whether 2 cases with Down's syndrome are included or not. The authors have interpreted this as suggesting a threshold in the low-dose region. In the dose group 0.10-0.49 Gy, except one case with Down's syndrome there is only one other case, exposed 8 weeks p.c. to 0.14 Gy. However, in a RERF report (TR 13-91) concerning brain abnormalities detected by MRI in retarded persons, the same case is described. According to this report he was actually exposed to 0.86 Gy. The distance was 1060 m, and his mother exhibited severe epilation. These details indicate that the higher dose is correct and the lower dose is erroneous. In a small material the misclassification of one case has a deep influence on the result of the data analysis. Reclassification of this case will lead to a considerable change in the estimated threshold, notably in the 95% lower bound of the threshold. There will be no indication of severe retardation after less than 0.5 Gy even in the most sensitive period. This does not preclude a milder effect on intelligence from lower doses. The fraction of severe retardation after exposure to 1 Sv in the period 8-15 weeks p.c. has been estimated at 40%. The effect on intelligence score has been estimated at 30 IQ units per Sv in the same period. These estimates have been combined in ICRP 60 to create a model, based on a presumed normal distribution of IQ scores, according to which the final outcome for an individual is determined by his expected IQ without exposure. Thus the dose required to make an otherwise normal individual retarded would be high, while a much lower dose would be enough to bring an

  5. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  6. Transport energy consumption achievement based on indicator analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jian

    2017-06-01

    In order to evaluate the transport sustainability level for regions, the concept of achievement efficiency in transport energy consumption is initially suggested in this paper. The research object is not only for the energy consumption by transport operation but also the whole life of the transport procedure, which is the thought of life cycle assessment. And then, on the quantitative analysis to calculate the transport energy achievement efficiency of the regions, the indicators that can represent the achievement of transport energy consumption are convincingly found out by indicator theory. Next, concentration is focused on the transport related indicators and proper indicators are picked up from the candidate indicators, which were the affecting factors to this issue. After that, using the selected indicators, we introduce the method of data envelopment analysis to do quantitative analysis, which helps to get the achievement efficiency of transport energy among cities all over the world. The analysis result shows the efficient regions and the inefficient regions respectively. Furthermore, the detailed efficiency value of each region is also laid out clearly. For the improvement, the inadequate output or input variables of the inefficient regions were listed compared with the efficient regions so that corresponding transport policy implications can be resulted for the inefficient regions to reach high level sustainability.

  7. MUNICIPAL INDICATORS SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Saccol Ferreira

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the indicators of sustainable development in the municipalities of Chapeco , Joaçaba , Port Union and Mafra, which developed the urban and territorial expansion of the West and North of the Santa Catarina region during the twentieth century . Thus, the objective of the analysis is to identify the similarities and differences of municipal sustainable development of each municipality , proposing alternative ways to improve these indexes, through the concepts Sachs (1997. The work is guided by a comparative analysis of data considering the indicators in 2012 and 2014 , through a survey of documentary approach . From this analysis , identified and demonstrated the points with disabilities, but at the same time essential to raise the indices of sustainability of municipalities in socio-cultural terms, economic, environmental and political

  8. Detection of bias in animal model pedigree indices of heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. LIDAUER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to test whether the pedigree indices (PI of heifers are biased, and if so, whether the magnitude of the bias varies in different groups of heifers. Therefore, two animal model evaluations with two different data sets were computed. Data with all the records from the national evaluation in December 1994 was used to obtain estimated breeding values (EBV for 305-days' milk yield and protein yield. In the second evaluation, the PIs were estimated for cows calving the first time in 1993 by excluding all their production records from the data. Three different statistics, a simple t-test, the linear regression of EBV on PI, and the polynomial regression of the difference in the predictions (EBV-PI on PI, were computed for three groups of first parity Ayrshire cows: daughters of proven sires, daughters of young sires, and daughters of bull dam candidates. A practically relevant bias was found only in the PIs for the daughters of young sires. On average their PIs were biased upwards by 0.20 standard deviations (78.8 kg for the milk yield and by 0.21 standard deviations (2.2 kg for the protein yield. The polynomial regression analysis showed that the magnitude of the bias in the PIs changed somewhat with the size of the PIs.;

  9. Development: an Analysis of Concepts, Measurement and Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jair Soares Jr.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of a comprehensive analysis of the main forms of development measurement. Recognizing the level of complexity that the subject involves, aspects related to interpretations and dominant ideologies in development/growth concepts are shown initially. The second part of this work constitutes a critical analysis of forty-three of the most well-known national and international indicators used to measure thisphenomenon. It is imagined that this analysis can show the state of the art for constructing development indicators. The development process covers a complexity of relationships. Its analysis, therefore, cannot be restricted only to the economic dimension because, as a rule, the question is presented both in the media and aconsiderable part of specialized literature. Emphasis on this dimension has historic origins, which have already shown the fragility of this approach.

  10. Web Usage Analysis: New Science Indicators and Co-usage

    CERN Document Server

    Polanco, Xavier; Besagni, Dominique

    2008-01-01

    A new type of statistical analysis of the science and technical information (STI) in the Web context is produced. We propose a set of indicators about Web users, visualized bibliographic records, and e-commercial transactions. In addition, we introduce two Web usage factors. Finally, we give an overview of the co-usage analysis. For these tasks, we introduce a computer based system, called Miri@d, which produces descriptive statistical information about the Web users' searching behaviour, and what is effectively used from a free access digital bibliographical database. The system is conceived as a server of statistical data which are carried out beforehand, and as an interactive server for online statistical work. The results will be made available to analysts, who can use this descriptive statistical information as raw data for their indicator design tasks, and as input for multivariate data analysis, clustering analysis, and mapping. Managers also can exploit the results in order to improve management and d...

  11. The Best Obesity Indices to Use in a Single Factor Model Indicating Metabolic Syndrome: a Population Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamed, Nima; Zamani, Farhad; Rabiee, Behnam; Saeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Maadi, Mansooreh; Akhavan-Niaki, Haleh; Asouri, Mohsen

    2016-02-01

    Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a major health problem worldwide, there is no universal agreement on its definition. One of the major disagreements is dealing with the issue of obesity in this definition. This study was conducted to determine a preferably better index of obesity which can be interrelated with other components of MetS in a single factor model of MetS. Out of 6140 participants of a cohort study of subjects aged 10-90 years in northern Iran, the baseline data of 5616 participants aged 18-75 was considered.  Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted using AMOS software to evaluate a single factor model of MetS in which blood pressure, triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), fasting blood sugar (FBS) and obesity measures including waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI),  waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were used as indicators of metabolic syndrome. Four single factor models differing from each other by obesity indices were evaluated. The models were evaluated in all 5616 subjects and 4931 subjects without diabetes mellitus according to sex separately. All single factor models had appropriate fit indices with CFI > 0.95, GFI > 0.95 and RMSEA models obtained the best values of fit indices in men and good fit indices in women. In the general population of men, the single factor models built based on WHR (Chi-square=6.9, df=2, P-value=0.031, RMSEA = 0.028, CI = 0.007-0.052, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.999 and AIC = 22.9)  and WHtR (Chi-square = 9.97, df = 2, P-value = 0.007, RMSEA = 0.036, CI = 0.016-0.059, CFI = 0.992, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 25.97) were fitted properly with data while in th general population of women, the model based on WHR obtained better fit indices (Chi-square = 7.5, df = 2, P-value = 0.023, RMSEA = 0.033, CI = 0.011-0.060, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 23.5). Models based on WHtR obtained better regression weights than WHR. While single factor validity of MetS was confirmed in

  12. Evaluation Indicators for Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Sustainability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Chang, Hong Lae

    2008-01-15

    In this report, an attempt was made to derive indicators for the evaluation of the sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle, using the methodologies developed by the INPRO, OECD/NEA and Gen-IV. In deriving the indicators, the three main elements of the sustainability, i.e., economics, environmental impact, and social aspect, as well as the technological aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, considering the importance of the safety, were selected as the main criteria. An evaluation indicator for each criterion was determined, and the contents and evaluation method of each indicator were proposed. In addition, a questionnaire survey was carried out for the objectivity of the selection of the indicators in which participated some experts of the Korea Energy Technology and Emergency Management Institute (KETEMI) . Although the proposed indicators do not satisfy the characteristics and requirements of general indicators, it is presumed that they can be used in the analysis of the sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle because those indicators incorporate various expert judgment and public opinions. On the other hand, the weighting factor of each indicator should be complemented in the future, using the AHP method and expert advice/consultations.

  13. Financial Openness and Financial Development: An Analysis Using Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Ozkok, Zeynep

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the link between financial openness and financial development through panel data analysis on advanced and emerging market countries. Using indices, financial openness together with institutional and educational variables explains a large part of the variation in financial development across countries and over time. Our analysis demonstrates that different indexing strategies serve in finding better measures for financial openness and financial development in comparison to ...

  14. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  15. Analysis of the Segmented Features of Indicator of Mine Presence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krtalic, A.

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this research is to investigate possibility for interactive semi-automatic interpretation of digital images in humanitarian demining for the purpose of detection and extraction of (strong) indicators of mine presence which can be seen on the images, according to the parameters of the general geometric shapes rather than radiometric characteristics. For that purpose, objects are created by segmentation. The segments represent the observed indicator and the objects that surround them (for analysis of the degree of discrimination of objects from the environment) in the best possible way. These indicators cover a certain characteristic surface. These areas are determined by segmenting the digital image. Sets of pixels that form such surface on images have specific geometric features. In this way, it is provided to analyze the features of the segments on the basis of the object, rather than the pixel level. Factor analysis of geometric parameters of this segments is performed in order to identify parameters that can be distinguished from the other parameters according to their geometric features. Factor analysis was carried out in two different ways, according to the characteristics of the general geometric shape and to the type of strong indicators of mine presence. The continuation of this research is the implementation of the automatic extraction of indicators of mine presence according results presented in this paper.

  16. Evaluation of ozone exposure indices in exposure-response modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E H; Tingey, D T; Hogsett, W E

    1988-01-01

    In exposure-response modeling, a major concern is the numerical definition of exposure in relating crop loss to O3, yet few indices have been considered. This paper addresses research in which plant growth was regressed for soybean, wheat, cotton, corn, and sorghum against 613 numerical exposure indices using the Box-Tidwell model. When the minimum sum of squared errors criterion was used, optimum performance was not attained for any single index; however, near optimum performances were achieved by two censored cumulative indices and from a class of indices called the generalized, phenologically weighted, cumulative impact indices (GPWCIs). The top-performing GPWCIs accumulated concentrations, used sigmoid weighting schemes emphasizing O3 concentrations of 0.06 ppm (118 microg m(-3)) or higher, and had phenological weighting schemes with greatest weight occurring 20 to 40 days prior to crop maturity. These findings indicate that (1) peak concentrations are important, but lower concentrations should be included in the calculations, (2) increased plant sensitivity occurs between flowering and maturity, and (3) plants respond to cumulative exposure impact.

  17. RECEIVED SIGNAL STRENGTH INDICATION MODELING IN INDOOR WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Taira Procopio

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify mathematical models that represent the relation between Received Signal Strength Indication (RSSI and objects in an indoor Wireless Sensor Network (WSN. Using the Least Squares Method, four linear models have been identified: The first one relates uplink RSSI and objects; the second one relates downlink RSSI and objects; the third one relates uplink RSSI and obstacles and the fourth one relates downlink RSSI and obstacles. The obtained results, characterized by small residual values, attest the validation of all four models.

  18. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose stratigraphic framework provided by the indicator models.

  19. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  20. Key performance indicators in hospital based on balanced scorecard model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Rahimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Performance measurement is receiving increasing verification all over the world. Nowadays in a lot of organizations, irrespective of their type or size, performance evaluation is the main concern and a key issue for top administrators. The purpose of this study is to organize suitable key performance indicators (KPIs for hospitals’ performance evaluation based on the balanced scorecard (BSC. Method: This is a mixed method study. In order to identify the hospital’s performance indicators (HPI, first related literature was reviewed and then the experts’ panel and Delphi method were used. In this study, two rounds were needed for the desired level of consensus. The experts rated the importance of the indicators, on a five-point Likert scale. In the consensus calculation, the consensus percentage was calculated by classifying the values 1-3 as not important (0 and 4-5 to (1 as important. Simple additive weighting technique was used to rank the indicators and select hospital’s KPIs. The data were analyzed by Excel 2010 software. Results: About 218 indicators were obtained from a review of selected literature. Through internal expert panel, 77 indicators were selected. Finally, 22 were selected for KPIs of hospitals. Ten indicators were selected in internal process perspective and 5, 4, and 3 indicators in finance, learning and growth, and customer, respectively. Conclusion: This model can be a useful tool for evaluating and comparing the performance of hospitals. However, this model is flexible and can be adjusted according to differences in the target hospitals. This study can be beneficial for hospital administrators and it can help them to change their perspective about performance evaluation.

  1. Trading Volume and Stock Indices: A Test of Technical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Abbondante

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Technical analysis and its emphasis on trading volume has been used to analyze movements in individual stock prices and make investment recommendations to either buy or sell that stock. Little attention has been paid to investigating the relationship between trading volume and various stock indices. Approach: Since stock indices track overall stock market movements, trends in trading volume could be used to forecast future stock market trends. Instead of focusing only on individual stocks, this study will examine movements in major stock markets as a whole. Regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between trading volume and five popular stock indices using daily data from January, 2000 to June, 2010. A lag of 5 days was used because this represents the prior week of trading volume. The total sample size ranges from 1,534-2,638 to observations. Smaller samples were used to test the investment horizon that explains movements of the indices more completely. Results: The F statistics were significant for samples using 6 and 16 months of data. The F statistic was not significant using a sample of 1 month of data. This is surprising given the short term focus of technical analysis. The results indicate that above-average returns can be achieved using futures, options and exchange traded funds which track these indices. Conclusion: Future research efforts will include out-of-sample forecasting to determine if above-average returns can be achieved. Additional research can be conducted to determine the optimal number of lags for each index.

  2. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S

    2004-01-01

    The ecotoxicity effect indicator (EFI) is used together with the input results from the fate modelling when calculating characterisation factors for ecotoxicity within life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA). A number of methods have been proposed and used in recent years involving different approaches...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  3. Fractal Analysis of Prime Indian STOCK Market Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadder, Swetadri; Ghosh, Koushik; Basu, Tapasendra

    2013-03-01

    The purpose of the present work is to study the fractal behaviour of prime Indian stock exchanges, namely Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index (BSE Sensex) and National Stock Exchange (NSE). To analyze the monofractality of these indices we have used Higuchi method and Katz method separately. By applying Mutifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) technique we have calculated the generalized Hurst exponents, multifractal scaling exponents and generalized multifractal dimensions for the present indices. We have deduced Hölder exponents as well as singularity spectra for BSE and NSE. It has been observed that both the stock exchanges are possessing self-similarity at different small ranges separately and inhomogeneously. By comparing the multifractal behaviour of the BSE and NSE indices, we have found that the second one exhibits a richer multifractal feature than the first one.

  4. Evaluation of empirical models and competition indices in ranking canola

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S Safahani

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the competitive ability (CA of canola cultivars against wild mustard, two experiments were conducted at the Gorgan Institute in Iran during the 2005-2007 cropping seasons. The experimental factors were canola cultivars (1st year: Zarfam, Option500, Hayola330, Hayola401, Talayh, RGS003 and Sarigol; 2nd year: Zarfam, Hayola330, RGS003 and Option500 and weed density (1st year: control and 30 plants m-2; 2nd year: control, 4, 8 and 16 plants m-2. The result of the first year is experiment indicated that the grain yield and competitive indices differed significantly between the cultivars. Cultivar Zarfam showed a high ability to withstand competition (AWC = 47 %, high competitive indices (CI=1.79 and CI2 = 1.83 and low grain yield in the weed- free plots (1729 kg ha-1. The cultivar Option500, a less competitive cultivar had the lowest ability to withstand competition (AWC = 4 % and the lowest competitive indices (CI = 0.09 and CI2= 0.11 amongst the cultivars. However, the cultivar Option500 showed more grain yield in the weed- free plots (2333 kg ha-1 than cultivar Zarfam. In the second year of the experiment, the result of the yield loss models showed that the lowest and highest yield loss belonged to cultivars Zarfam and Option500 (50 and 95 % respectively. A comparison of different empirical models revealed that the empirical yield loss model based on weed relative leaf area was more reliable for predicting canola yield loss according to a high coefficient of determination (R2=0.99. The relative damage coefficient (q of the weed relative leaf area model showed that wild mustard was more competitive than canola (q>1.

  5. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-07-01

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models.

  6. Major indicators of analysis of insurers’ investment activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.O. Poplavskyi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to topical issues of economic nature, selection and use of economic indicators in analysis of insurers’ investment activity. The author determines the main criteria of permissible investment activity, such as different assets covering the insurance reserves and share of various types of investments in assets and capital on the base of the results of summarizing recent public requirements of key banks to insurance companies in Ukraine. The recommendations of the insurers’ analysis approved by the regulatory bodies in Ukraine (the State Commission for Regulation of Financial Services Markets, Belarus (the Ministry of Finance and Poland (the Financial Supervision Authority are not left without author’s attention. According to the results of comparing using of different indicators, like the return on equity and investment, their strength and weaknesses are identified and the improving the scales of their assessment are proposed. The article singles out the main indicators which can be adapted to national features+ and used for management decisions and regulation of investment activities of insurers.

  7. DRAFT MODEL FOR CREATING A FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iveta Strelcova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a problem of developing, defining and applying budgetary indicators of engineering constructions, and particularly bridges. It is a draft of a Model for development of budgetary indicators of bridge construction in the pre-investment phase of a project. It could, according to classification and evaluation in terms of criteria and search for the most accurate valuation unit of complex structures such as bridge construction, serve investors and public administration authorities for rapid investment planning and professional control of completed buildings. Such a unique tool has never been developed in the Czech Republic so far. Bridges as buildings complement any landscape and in the outer parts of cities, they often establish a viewpoint. They belong among important parts of any highway or expressway. Without them, it would be impossible to establish grade-separated crossings with other roads - roads, railway lines or sections of rivers. They are also important in overcoming obstacles of natural and artificial character such as deep valleys, lakes, or steep mountainsides. The aim of the paper is to analyse a current state of the valuation of bridges and the subsequent establishment and validation of the Model for the development of budgetary indicators of the bridge construction.

  8. Recurrence quantification analysis of two solar cycle indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stangalini, Marco; Ermolli, Ilaria; Consolini, Giuseppe; Giorgi, Fabrizio

    2017-02-01

    Solar activity affects the whole heliosphere and near-Earth space environment. It has been reported in the literature that the mechanism responsible for the solar activity modulation behaves like a low-dimensional chaotic system. Studying these kind of physical systems and, in particular, their temporal evolution requires non-linear analysis methods. To this regard, in this work we apply the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to the study of two of the most commonly used solar cycle indicators; i.e. the series of the sunspot number (SSN), and the radio flux 10.7 cm, with the aim of identifying possible dynamical transitions in the system; a task which is particularly suited to the RQA. The outcome of this analysis reveals the presence of large fluctuations of two RQA measures: namely the determinism and the laminarity. In addition, large differences are also seen between the evolution of the RQA measures of the SSN and the radio flux. That suggests the presence of transitions in the dynamics underlying the solar activity. Besides it also shows and quantifies the different nature of these two solar indices. Furthermore, in order to check whether our results are affected by dataartefacts, we have also applied the RQA to both the recently recalibrated SSN series and the previous one, unveiling the main differences between the two data sets. The results are discussed in light of the recent literature on the subject.

  9. Generic Modelling of Faecal Indicator Organism Concentrations in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl M. Stapleton

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available To meet European Water Framework Directive requirements, data are needed on faecal indicator organism (FIO concentrations in rivers to enable the more heavily polluted to be targeted for remedial action. Due to the paucity of FIO data for the UK, especially under high-flow hydrograph event conditions, there is an urgent need by the policy community for generic models that can accurately predict FIO concentrations, thus informing integrated catchment management programmes. This paper reports the development of regression models to predict base- and high-flow faecal coliform (FC and enterococci (EN concentrations for 153 monitoring points across 14 UK catchments, using land cover, population (human and livestock density and other variables that may affect FIO source strength, transport and die-off. Statistically significant models were developed for both FC and EN, with greater explained variance achieved in the high-flow models. Both land cover and, in particular, population variables are significant predictors of FIO concentrations, with r2 maxima for EN of 0.571 and 0.624, respectively. It is argued that the resulting models can be applied, with confidence, to other UK catchments, both to predict FIO concentrations in unmonitored watercourses and evaluate the likely impact of different land use/stocking level and human population change scenarios.

  10. Adequacy indices for dialysis in acute renal failure: kinetic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debowska, Malgorzata; Lindholm, Bengt; Waniewski, Jacek

    2010-05-01

    Many aspects of the management of renal replacement therapy in acute renal failure (ARF), including the appropriate assessment of dialysis adequacy, remain unresolved, because ARF patients often are not in a metabolic steady state. The aim of this study was to evaluate a system of adequacy indices for dialysis in ARF patients using urea and creatinine kinetic modeling. Kinetic modeling was performed for two different fictitious patients (A and B) with characteristics described by the average parameters for two patient groups and for two blood purification treatments: sustained low efficiency daily dialysis (SLEDD) in Patient A and continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH) in Patient B, based on data from a clinical report. Urea and creatinine generation rates were estimated according to the clinical data on the solute concentrations in blood. Then, using estimated generation rates, two hypothetical treatments were simulated, CVVH in Patient A and SLEDD in Patient B. KT/V, fractional solute removal (FSR) and equivalent renal clearance (EKR) were calculated according to the definitions developed for metabolically unstable patients. CVVH appeared as being more effective than SLEDD because KT/V, FSR, and EKR were higher for CVVH than SLEDD in Patients A and B. Creatinine KT/V, FSR, and EKR were lower and well correlated to the respective indices for urea. Urea and creatinine generation rates were overestimated more than twice in Patient A and by 30-40% in Patient B if calculated assuming the metabolically stable state than if estimated by kinetic modeling. Adequacy indices and solute generation rates for ARF patients should be estimated using the definition for unsteady metabolic state. EKR and FSR were higher for urea and creatinine with CVVH than with SLEDD, because of higher K.T and minimized compartmental effects for CVVH.

  11. Analysis of structural macroeconomic indicators based on harmony approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knyshenko, Tetyana

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the article the application of fractal theory and proportions of «gold section» is considered to the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the criteria of optimum and efficiency of structure of economy are selected. An economy is represented as treelike fractal, every level of which is characterized by potential of profits (by the issue and necessity in charges. The types of structural subsystems in an economy are selected: permanent and temporal, the last arise up at violation of systems optimum. An author drew conclusion that on the certain types of economic activity structural subsystems can be effective, but they can not be named optimum, as there are deviations from the «gold section» at the certain type of the technological mode, in the issue, intermediate consumption and GVP. A conclusion about the type of the technological mode based on analysis of investment of spheres and types of economic activity in forming of macroeconomic indexes.

  12. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  13. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  14. A new class of indicators for the model selection of scaling laws in nuclear fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lupelli, I., E-mail: Ivan.Lupelli@ccfe.ac.uk [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA – University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Roma (Italy); EURATOM/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Murari, A. [Consorzio RFX-Associazione EURATOM ENEA per la Fusione, I-35127 Padova (Italy); Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M. [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA – University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Roma (Italy); Mazon, D. [Association EURATOM-CEA, CEA Cadarache DSM/IRFM, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Vega, J. [Asociación EURATOM-CIEMAT para Fusión, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: ► A new model selection indicator, based on the Model Falsification Criterion, has been applied to the problem of choosing the scaling laws for power threshold scaling to access the H-mode in tokamaks. ► The indicators have at least the same selection power of the classic indicators for databases of low dimensionality. ► For the high dimensionality dataset the indicator outperforms the traditional criteria. ► The indicator preserves its advantages up to a noise of 20% of the signal level. -- Abstract: The development of computationally efficient model selection strategies represents an important problem facing the analysis of nuclear fusion experimental data, in particular in the field of scaling laws for the extrapolation to future machines, and image processing. In this paper, a new model selection indicator, named Model Falsification Criterion (MFC), will be presented and applied to the problem of choosing the most generalizable scaling laws for the power threshold (P{sub Thresh}) to access the H-mode of confinement in tokamaks. The proposed indicator is based on the properties of the model residuals, their entropy and an implementation of the data falsification principle. The model selection ability of the proposed criterion will be demonstrated in comparison with the most widely used frequentist (Akaike information criterion) and bayesian (Bayesian information criterion) indicators.

  15. The rationale of pharmacoeconomic analysis in rheumatologic indications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchetti, Giuseppe; Scalone, Luciana; Della Casa Alberighi, Ornella; Mosca, Marta; Montella, Sabato; Cortesi, Paolo A; Mantovani, Lorenzo G

    2012-01-01

    Pharmacoeconomic analysis is aimed at supporting choices between alternatives available for the efficient management of specific conditions. Aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the main features of pharmacoeconomic evaluations, with the objective of providing the reader with the basic tools necessary to read and interpret or to design and conduct a pharmacoeconomic analysis in RA and in other rheumatic diseases. The paragraphs will cover in detail the definition of health economic evaluation and pharmacoeconomics, the alternatives to be compared, the perspective of the analysis, costs and effects (presenting in detail direct costs and effects, indirect costs and effects, intangible costs and effects and source of data), and pharmacoeconomic techniques. Pharmacoeconomic analyses have to be conducted accurately to provide valuable information to guide the choice of options representing the best value for money without compromising the quality of care delivered. For this reason, as these analyses generally present some limitations, a very close and strong relationship between pharmacoeconomists and clinicians is crucial both in the design of pharmacoeconomic studies and in the interpretation of their results, and also in the development of more satisfactory methods and indicators.

  16. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey data in Angola.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Gosoniu

    Full Text Available The 2006-2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60% than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities.

  17. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S

    2004-01-01

    for the estimation of the EFI. However none of these methods are found to be adequately robust and/or able to work on the low data input defined by the OMNIITOX Base Model (BM), i.e. a minimum of three acute EC50 values. Given the fact that the BM should be applicable to a significant number of chemicals......, this requirement follows from the current and the most likely future data availability as defined by the proposed EU chemicals policy REACH. In this paper, a theoretical elaboration of effect-based average approaches (arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median) and the non-effect based approach (PNEC) is made...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  18. The indicative analysis and ranking of human capital development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inessa, Gurban; Alexandr, Tarasyev

    2017-07-01

    In this article we discuss the rationale for the importance and effectiveness of the regions ranking as a tool for regional social and economic policies aimed to control the regional socio-economic development. A methodological approach to the determination of the human capital development level in the regions of the Russian Federation is provided focused on determining the quality of human capital in each region of the Russian Federation and the causes underlying this situation. The methodological apparatus is based on the indicative qualimetric analysis method that allows to convert various benchmarks expressed in different units in a comparable type. Also it is possible to receive and differentiate a comprehensive assessment of the human capital level in each region of the Russian Federation on the basis of the proposed classification. In this article we present the structure of the indicators system that simulates the human capital level by a number of descriptive components including demographic, educational, employment, research and socio-cultural components. In our research we found that in the overwhelming majority of the Russian Federation human capital is characterized mainly by a low development level. The system shows unstable dynamics in the human capital level through the Russian Federal Districts, as well as the leaders and laggards in the rating of the Russian Federation during the period 2000-2013. Our article presents the structure of a comprehensive assessment of the human capital level by providing estimates of its components.

  19. Analysis of pilot warning indicator performance in terminal area traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruetenik, J. R.; Lange, W. R.; Thompson, J. H.

    1971-01-01

    Three pilot warning indicator concepts for collision hazard avoidance are analyzed using computer fast-time simulation. A hazard measure is defined based on a 1/2-g maximum horizontal acceleration, a maximum climb or dive angle of 10 deg for each aircraft, and a 20-sec warning time, through escape completion. The traffic model is based on flight tracks recorded in the Atlanta terminal area over an 11 hr period during August 1967. The basic PWI concept studied alarms on range to flashing beacons mounted on intruder aircraft as a function of relative azimuth and elevation. The alarm-hazard epoch ratio is about 17/1 to maintain the missed-alarm rate below 10%. Beacon vignetting or range-rate discrimination are shown to reduce the false-alarm rate by about 75%.

  20. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINING THE INDICATORS OF TRACTIVE VEHICLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Golovchuk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research paper involves solving of the following tasks: 1 refinement of the mathematical model for determining the traction and dynamic, fuel and economic, environmental indicators of mobile energy facilities; 2 methodology development of theoretical studies of automatic control systems, static and dynamic characteristics automotive-tractor diesel with a gas turbine supercharger and a mobile power facility. Methodology. The work studies the working processes of vehicles and machine-tractor aggregates by mathematical simulation and the development of algorithms and programs for the calculation of these processes in actual operational conditions. The system of equations has been developed for theoretical research. It describes a nonlinear mathematical model of the automatic control system of an automotive-tractor diesel rotating frequency. In addition to the differential equations of the first and second order, equations are used in mathematical simulation of working processes of traction vehicles. These equations describe experimental characteristics of an automatic regulator, a high-pressure fuel pump, a turbocharger and an engine, as well as moments of engine mechanical losses and an external load. Findings. The developed mathematical model allows determining the effectiveness of new design, operational and technological developments, as well as various measures in order to improve the fuel-economic and environmental performances of vehicles and machine-tractor aggregates in operating conditions. Originality. For the first time, the mathematical model "Tractor driver – machine-tractor aggregate – road (field" was developed. It allows conducting research of transport tractor aggregates by driving cycles, taking into account the processes of starting and speeding up the mobile-power sources with gear shift. Practical value. In conditions of a protracted economic crisis, in the absence of the necessary equipment, instruments

  1. A new class of indicators for the model selection of scaling laws in nuclear fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Lupelli, I; Gaudio, P; Gelfusa, M; Mazon, D; Vega, J

    2013-01-01

    The development of computationally efficient model selection strategies represents an important problem facing the analysis of Nuclear Fusion experimental data, in particular in the field of scaling laws for the extrapolation to future machines, and image processing. In this paper, a new model selection indicator, named Model Falsification Criterion (MFC), will be presented and applied to the problem of choosing the most generalizable scaling laws for the power threshold to access the H-mode of confinement in Tokamaks. The proposed indicator is based on the properties of the model residuals, their entropy and an implementation of the data falsification principle. The model selection ability of the proposed criterion will be demonstrated in comparison with the most widely used frequentist (Akaike Information Criterion) and bayesian (Bayesian Information Criterion) indicators.

  2. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  3. Key Sustainability Performance Indicator Analysis for Czech Breweries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Kasem

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability performance can be said to be an ability of an organization to remain productive over time and hold on to its potential for maintaining long-term profitability. Since the brewery sector is one of the most important and leading markets in the foodstuff industry of the Czech Republic, this study depicts the Czech breweries’ formal entry into sustainability reporting and performance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an efficiency level evaluation which would represent the level of corporate performance of Czech breweries. For this reason, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA is introduced. In order to apply it, we utilize a set of key performance indicators (KPIs based on two international standard frameworks: the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI and its GRI 4 guidelines, and the guideline KPIs for ESG 3.0, which was published by the DVFA Society. Four sustainability dimensions (economic, environmental, social and governance are covered, making it thus possible to adequately evaluate sustainability performance in Czech breweries. The main output is not only the efficiency score of the company but also the input weights. These weights are used to determine the contribution of particular criteria to the breweries’ achieved score. According to the achieved efficiency results for Czech breweries, the percentage of women supervising the company does not affect the sustainability performance.

  4. Enzymes/non-enzymes classification model complexity based on composition, sequence, 3D and topological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munteanu, Cristian Robert; González-Díaz, Humberto; Magalhães, Alexandre L

    2008-09-21

    The huge amount of new proteins that need a fast enzymatic activity characterization creates demands of protein QSAR theoretical models. The protein parameters that can be used for an enzyme/non-enzyme classification includes the simpler indices such as composition, sequence and connectivity, also called topological indices (TIs) and the computationally expensive 3D descriptors. A comparison of the 3D versus lower dimension indices has not been reported with respect to the power of discrimination of proteins according to enzyme action. A set of 966 proteins (enzymes and non-enzymes) whose structural characteristics are provided by PDB/DSSP files was analyzed with Python/Biopython scripts, STATISTICA and Weka. The list of indices includes, but it is not restricted to pure composition indices (residue fractions), DSSP secondary structure protein composition and 3D indices (surface and access). We also used mixed indices such as composition-sequence indices (Chou's pseudo-amino acid compositions or coupling numbers), 3D-composition (surface fractions) and DSSP secondary structure amino acid composition/propensities (obtained with our Prot-2S Web tool). In addition, we extend and test for the first time several classic TIs for the Randic's protein sequence Star graphs using our Sequence to Star Graph (S2SG) Python application. All the indices were processed with general discriminant analysis models (GDA), neural networks (NN) and machine learning (ML) methods and the results are presented versus complexity, average of Shannon's information entropy (Sh) and data/method type. This study compares for the first time all these classes of indices to assess the ratios between model accuracy and indices/model complexity in enzyme/non-enzyme discrimination. The use of different methods and complexity of data shows that one cannot establish a direct relation between the complexity and the accuracy of the model.

  5. Assessment of stochastically updated finite element models using reliability indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, X. G.; Wen, Q.; Ni, Y. Q.; Chen, Z. Q.

    2017-01-01

    Finite element (FE) model updating techniques have been a viable approach to correcting an initial mathematical model based on test data. Validation of the updated FE models is usually conducted by comparing model predictions with independent test data that have not been used for model updating. This approach of model validation cannot be readily applied in the case of a stochastically updated FE model. In recognizing that structural reliability is a major decision factor throughout the lifecycle of a structure, this study investigates the use of structural reliability as a measure for assessing the quality of stochastically updated FE models. A recently developed perturbation method for stochastic FE model updating is first applied to attain the stochastically updated models by using the measured modal parameters with uncertainty. The reliability index and failure probability for predefined limit states are computed for the initial and the stochastically updated models, respectively, and are compared with those obtained from the 'true' model to assess the quality of the two models. Numerical simulation of a truss bridge is provided as an example. The simulated modal parameters involving different uncertainty magnitudes are used to update an initial model of the bridge. It is shown that the reliability index obtained from the updated model is much closer to true reliability index than that obtained from the initial model in the case of small uncertainty magnitude; in the case of large uncertainty magnitude, the reliability index computed from the initial model rather than from the updated model is closer to the true value. The present study confirms the usefulness of measurement-calibrated FE models and at the same time also highlights the importance of the uncertainty reduction in test data for reliable model updating and reliability evaluation.

  6. A System of Indicators for Financial Analysis of the Municipal Real Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Feschiyan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a system of financial indicators for the efficiency of use of municipal real property. Such a system must provide for meeting the information needs of a number of internal and external consumers and is of primary significance in the analysis of municipalities’ overall financial condition. The following may be pointed out as the major aspects of the practical analysis: i the analysis of the municipality’s provision with immoveable property; ii the analysis of the efficient use of certain categories of municipal real property. The paper aims at clarifying the major moments in the analysis of the structure, composition, and effective use of municipal real property, and the determination of definite indicators to be applied to this analysis oriented towards its implementation. The wide variety of parameters is reduced to a system of 16 indicators: reporting value, depreciation, ratio of replacement, ratio of cost efficiency, ratio of revenue efficiency, return on total assets, return on revenues, return on expenses, ratio of the fitness, ratio of the repair, ratio of real energy provision, ratio of workload, present value of a series of regular cash flows, equivalent yield model, return on investment, return on investment. The paper presents the structure and content of the indicators of the analysis of the municipal real property, as well as the input of these indicators. The estimation (values necessary to determine the indicators, the indicators themselves and their meaning make it possible to study the effectiveness of the operations (functioning of the municipal real property in terms of description of its physical condition, structure, content, purpose and functions, which generates revenues or brings expenditures to the municipality. The system of indicators provides for decision making with a view to boosting the efficiency of public sector management and more specifically – the management of municipal real property.

  7. Modeling Battery Behavior for Accurate State-of-Charge Indication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pop, V.; Bergveld, H.J.; Veld, op het J.H.G.; Regtien, P.P.L.; Danilov, D.; Notten, P.H.L.

    2006-01-01

    Li-ion is the most commonly used battery chemistry in portable applications nowadays. Accurate state-of-charge (SOC) and remaining run-time indication for portable devices is important for the user's convenience and to prolong the lifetime of batteries. A new SOC indication system, combining the ele

  8. ANALYSIS OF PRICE SERIES USING HOLT’S INDICATOR OF STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yegorova N. Y.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of an indicator to detect changes in the dynamics of stock price series that could lead to loss of optimality of the trading models parameters. Feature of the new tools of technical analysis is sensitive not only to the trend component securities prices, but also to the volatility of financial assets. In this work proposes the use of this indicator as part of risk management at the stock market, formulates practical advice on how to use and configure in conjunction with trading models.

  9. HERBAL INDICATORS AS AN UPCOMING TREND IN TITREMETRIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidana Jaspreet

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Indicators are very special chemicals, they will change color of the solution with change in pH by adding acid or alkali. Red cabbage is actually blue in color. It will be quite blue when slice it up and add some tap water but if we add some vinegar it will turn red. This is due to the pigment present in red cabbage which acts as pH indicator. The aim of this study is to investigate the activity of flower pigments extracts to replace the synthetic indicators. Synthetic indicator produces chemical hazards, availability problem and having high cost. Methanolic extract of Antirrhinum majus belonging to the family Scrophulariaceae and Dianthus plumaris belonging to family Caryophyllaceae give sharp and intense color change as compared to phenolphthalein and methyl orange.Herbal indicators are evaluated by different acids and bases. In all these titrations the extract was found to be accurate and useful for indicating the end point (neutralization point. Phytochemical investigation and chemical test of Antirrhinum majus and Dianthus plumaris shows presence of anthocyanins which are related to the class of flavanoids and may be the main reason for its activity as an indicator. From these investigation new theories of indicators could be established.

  10. The OECD International Education Indicators: A Framework for Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France). Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

    This volume contains some of the many studies undertaken during the initial phase of activity by the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) concerning international education indicators. The studies trace the preparation of a set of international indicators as they…

  11. Analysis and Design of Agricultural Sustainability Indicators System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIU Hua-jiao; ZHU Wan-bin; WANG Hai-bin; CHENG Xu

    2007-01-01

    The development and characteristic of agricultural sustainability indicators system (Sis), at home and abroad, was reviewed. It was pointed out that the existing domestic methodsof sustainability evaluation can not be accepted by foreign scholars, and their scientific basis is inadequate. The experience and shortcomings of the previous studies on the indicators selection and evaluation methods were analyzed, also with the significance for practice. Finally, a new Sis for agriculture development evaluation was proposed, together with the corresponding calculation and evaluation methods. The farmer development index indicator was proposed to embody the viewpoint that the development of people is the ultimate aim; the dynamic weight calculation method was designed to reflect the various significance of the different indicators when their values were changing; and new indicators integrate methods were also explored.

  12. Consistency of accuracy assessment indices for soft classification: Simulation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jin; Zhu, Xiaolin; Imura, Hidefumi; Chen, Xuehong

    Accuracy assessment plays a crucial role in the implementation of soft classification. Even though many indices of accuracy assessment for soft classification have been proposed, the consistencies among these indices are not clear, and the impact of sample size on these consistencies has not been investigated. This paper examines two kinds of indices: map-level indices, including root mean square error ( rmse), kappa, and overall accuracy ( oa) from the sub-pixel confusion matrix (SCM); and category-level indices, including crmse, user accuracy ( ua) and producer accuracy ( pa). A careful simulation was conducted to investigate the consistency of these indices and the effect of sample size. The major findings were as follows: (1) The map-level indices are highly consistent with each other, whereas the category-level indices are not. (2) The consistency among map-level and category-level indices becomes weaker when the sample size decreases. (3) The rmse is more affected by error distribution among classes than are kappa and oa. Based on these results, we recommend that rmse can be used for map-level accuracy due to its simplicity, although kappa and oa may be better alternatives when the sample size is limited because the two indices are affected less by the error distribution among classes. We also suggest that crmse should be provided when map users are not concerned about the error source, whereas ua and pa are more useful when the complete information about different errors is required. The results of this study will be of benefit to the development and application of soft classifiers.

  13. Comparing phosphorus indices and process models with water quality data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus (P) indices in the southern United States frequently produce different recommendations for similar conditions. After assembling data from benchmark southern sites (Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas), land treatment information was used in the 12 southern...

  14. Wavelet Analysis on Solar Wind Parameters and Geomagnetic Indices

    CERN Document Server

    Katsavrias, Ch; Moussas, X

    2012-01-01

    The sun as an oscillator produces frequencies which propagate in the heliosphere, via solar wind, to the terrestrial magnetosphere. We searched for those frequencies in the parameters of the near Earth solar plasma and the geomagnetic indices for the past four solar cycles. The solar wind parameters used in this work are the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma beta, Alfven Mach number, solar wind speed, plasma temperature, plasma pressure, plasma density and the geomagnetic indices DST, AE, Ap and Kp. We found out that each parameter of the solar wind exhibit certain periodicities which di?erentiate in each cycle. Our results indicate intermittent periodicities in our data, some of them shared between the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices.

  15. Analysis and Comparison of Overheating Indices in Energy Renovated Houses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psomas, Theofanis Ch.; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Duer, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    The scientific literature offers a number of methods for assessing the likelihood of overheating in buildings. The paper calculates eight well-documented indices for four representative family houses, from moderate and temperate climates, under different renovation processes (66 variants), with t......The scientific literature offers a number of methods for assessing the likelihood of overheating in buildings. The paper calculates eight well-documented indices for four representative family houses, from moderate and temperate climates, under different renovation processes (66 variants...

  16. Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Marami Milani

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new, and respiratory rate predictor RRP with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO and the Akaike information criterion (AIC techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49 respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001 with R2 (0.69. For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

  17. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  18. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wid

  19. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  20. MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika KULCSÁR

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysis the measure between GDP dependent variable in the sector of hotels and restaurants and the following independent variables: overnight stays in the establishments of touristic reception, arrivals in the establishments of touristic reception and investments in hotels and restaurants sector in the period of analysis 1995-2007. With the multiple regression analysis I found that investments and tourist arrivals are significant predictors for the GDP dependent variable. Based on these results, I identified those components of the marketing mix, which in my opinion require investment, which could contribute to the positive development of tourist arrivals in the establishments of touristic reception.

  1. MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika KULCSÁR

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysis the measure between GDP dependent variable in the sector of hotels and restaurants and the following independent variables: overnight stays in the establishments of touristic reception, arrivals in the establishments of touristic reception and investments in hotels and restaurants sector in the period of analysis 1995-2007. With the multiple regression analysis I found that investments and tourist arrivals are significant predictors for the GDP dependent variable. Based on these results, I identified those components of the marketing mix, which in my opinion require investment, which could contribute to the positive development of tourist arrivals in the establishments of touristic reception.

  2. Can Agrometeorological Indices of Adverse Weather Conditions Help to Improve Yield Prediction by Crop Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branislava Lalić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of adverse weather conditions (AWCs on crop production is random in both time and space and depends on factors such as severity, previous agrometeorological conditions, and plant vulnerability at a specific crop development stage. Any exclusion or improper treatment of any of these factors can cause crop models to produce significant under- or overestimates of yield. The analysis presented in this paper focuses on a range of agrometeorological indices (AMI related to AWCs that might affect real yield as well as simulated yield. For this purpose, the analysis addressed four indicators of extreme temperatures and three indicators of dry conditions during the growth period of maize and winter wheat in Austria, Croatia, Serbia, Slovakia, and Sweden. It is shown that increases in the number and intensity of AWCs cannot be unambiguously associated with increased deviations in simulated yields. The identified correlations indicate an increase in modeling uncertainty. This finding represents important information for the crop modeling community. Additionally, it opens a window of opportunity for a statistical (“event scenario” approach based on correlations between agrometeorological indices of AWCs and crop yield data series. This approach can provide scenarios for certain locations, crop types, and AWC patterns and, therefore, improve yield forecasting in the presence of AWCs.

  3. Causal Indicator Models Have Nothing to Do with Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.; Breivik, Einar

    2016-01-01

    In this article, Roy Howell, and Einar Breivik, congratulate Aguirre-Urreta, M. I., Rönkkö, M., & Marakas, G. M., for their work (2016) "Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement," Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(3), 75-97. doi:10.1080/15366367.2016.1205935. They call it…

  4. Causal Indicator Models Have Nothing to Do with Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.; Breivik, Einar

    2016-01-01

    In this article, Roy Howell, and Einar Breivik, congratulate Aguirre-Urreta, M. I., Rönkkö, M., & Marakas, G. M., for their work (2016) "Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement," Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(3), 75-97. doi:10.1080/15366367.2016.1205935. They call it…

  5. Analysis of regression-correlation relationships between indicators of university potential and macroeconomic indicators of Ukrainian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuravka Andrey V.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to study the competitive university potential of the regions and its relationship with the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of Ukraine. An analysis of regression-correlation relationships between four macroeconomic indicators and two indicators of the university potential of the regions of Ukraine is made. As a result of the research, the best correlation was obtained between the number of universities and the indicator Ij, calculated on the basis of aggregating the webometric ratings of universities for each region. It is shown that both indicators of the regional university potential correlate well with all four macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, analysis of the essence of regional development shows that with the growth of cities and the social and economic power of the regions, the university potential of the regions also grows, and not vice versa. Prospects for further research in this area are the inclusion of a larger number of scientific, innovation and macroeconomic indicators.

  6. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study focuses on determining the most important intervention in technical and ... Management in the Saf-Safriver basin characterized by the fast growing ... characterize their priorities. 2. .... algorithm was chosen as a model of the system.

  7. Scaling Analysis of Author-Level Bibliometric Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth; Larsen, Birger

    2014-01-01

    Despite of the concerns from the bibliometric community, evaluation of the individual through bibliometric indices is already performed as a form of ‘pseudo peer review’ in selection of candidates for tenure, in background checks of potential employees’ publicationand citation impact...

  8. Chronic Absenteeism: A Key Indicator of Student Success. Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafa, Alyssa

    2017-01-01

    Research shows that chronic absenteeism can affect academic performance in later grades and is a key early warning sign that a student is more likely to drop out of high school. Several states enacted legislation to address this issue, and many states are currently discussing the utility of chronic absenteeism as an indicator of school quality or…

  9. Solvent substitution: an analysis of comprehensive hazard screening indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debia, M; Bégin, D; Gérin, M

    2011-06-01

    The air index (ψ(i)(air)) of the PARIS II software (Environmental Protection Agency), the Indiana Relative Chemical Hazard Score (IRCHS), and the Final Hazard Score (FHS) used in the P2OASys system (Toxics Use Reduction Institute) are comprehensive hazard screening indices that can be used in solvent substitution. The objective of this study was to evaluate these indices using a list of 67 commonly used or recommended solvents. The indices ψ(i)(air), IRCHS and FHS were calculated considering 9, 13, and 33 parameters, respectively, that summarized health and safety hazards, and environmental impacts. Correlation and sensitivity analyses were performed. The vapor hazard ratio (VHR) was used as a reference point. Two good correlations were found: (1) between VHR and ψ(i)(air) (ρ = 0.84), (2) and between IRCHS and FHS (ρ = 0.81). Values of sensitivity ratios above 0.2 were found with ψ(i)(air) (4 of 9 parameters) and IRCHS (3 of 13 parameters), but not with FHS. Overall, the three indices exhibited important differences in the way they integrate key substitution factors, such as volatility, occupational exposure limit, skin exposure, flammability, carcinogenicity, photochemical oxidation potential, atmospheric global effects, and environmental terrestrial and aquatic effects. These differences can result in different choices of alternatives between indices, including the VHR. IRCHS and FHS are the most comprehensive indices but are very tedious and complex to use and lack sensitivity to several solvent-specific parameters. The index ψ(i)(air) is simpler to calculate but does not cover some parameters important to solvents. There is presently no suitably comprehensive tool available for the substitution of solvents. A two-tier approach for the selection of solvents is recommended to avoid errors that could be made using only a global index or the consideration of the simple VHR. As a first tier, one would eliminate solvent candidates having crucial impacts. As a

  10. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  11. Mathematical model for estimating of technical and technological indicators of railway stations operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.M. Kozachenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article aims to create a mathematical model of the railway station functioning for the solving of problems of station technology development on the plan-schedule basis. Methodology. The methods of graph theory and object-oriented analysis are used as research methods. The model of the station activity plan-schedule includes a model of technical equipment of the station (plan-schedule net and a model of the station functioning , which are formalized on the basis of parametric graphs. Findings. The presented model is implemented as an application to the graphics package AutoCAD. The software is developed in Visual LISP and Visual Basic. Taking into account that the construction of the plan-schedule is mostly a traditional process of adding, deleting, and modifying of icons, the developed interface is intuitively understandable for a technologist and practically does not require additional training. Originality. A mathematical model was created on the basis of the theory of graphs and object-oriented analysis in order to evaluate the technical and process of railway stations indicators; it is focused on solving problems of technology development of their work. Practical value. The proposed mathematical model is implemented as an application to the graphics package of AutoCAD. The presence of a mathematical model allows carrying out an automatic analysis of the plan-schedule and, thereby, reducing the period of its creation more than twice.

  12. Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

  13. The impact of removing financial incentives from clinical quality indicators : longitudinal analysis of four Kaiser Permanente indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lester, H.; Schmittdiel, J.; Selby, J.; Fireman, B.; Campbell, S.M.; Lee, J.; Whippy, A.; Madvig, P.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of financial incentives on four clinical quality indicators common to pay for performance plans in the United Kingdom and at Kaiser Permanente in California. DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis. SETTING: 35 medical facilities of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 1997

  14. Quantitative analysis of a frequency-domain nonlinearity indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichman, Brent O; Gee, Kent L; Neilsen, Tracianne B; Miller, Kyle G

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, quantitative understanding of a frequency-domain nonlinearity indicator is developed. The indicator is derived from an ensemble-averaged, frequency-domain version of the generalized Burgers equation, which can be rearranged in order to directly compare the effects of nonlinearity, absorption, and geometric spreading on the pressure spectrum level with frequency and distance. The nonlinear effect is calculated using pressure-squared-pressure quadspectrum. Further theoretical development has given an expression for the role of the normalized quadspectrum, referred to as Q/S by Morfey and Howell [AIAA J. 19, 986-992 (1981)], in the spatial rate of change of the pressure spectrum level. To explore this finding, an investigation of the change in level for initial sinusoids propagating as plane waves through inviscid and thermoviscous media has been conducted. The decibel change with distance, calculated through Q/S, captures the growth and decay of the harmonics and indicates that the most significant changes in level occur prior to sawtooth formation. At large distances, the inviscid case results in a spatial rate of change that is uniform across all harmonics. For thermoviscous media, large positive nonlinear gains are observed but offset by absorption, which leads to a greater overall negative spatial rate of change for higher harmonics.

  15. Should the indications for prenatal chromosome analysis be changed?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philip, J; Bang, J; Madsen, Mette

    1977-01-01

    Amniocentesis for chromosome analysis was performed in 1086 pergnant women, 739 of whom had an increased risk of giving birth to a child with chromosome abnormalities. Such abnormalities were found in almost identical proportions among the fetuses with an increased risk (1.2%) and among those...

  16. Complement analysis 2016: Clinical indications, laboratory diagnostics and quality control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prohászka, Zoltán; Nilsson, Bo; Frazer-Abel, Ashley; Kirschfink, Michael

    2016-11-01

    In recent years, complement analysis of body fluids and biopsies, going far beyond C3 and C4, has significantly enhanced our understanding of the disease process. Such expanded complement analysis allows for a more precise differential diagnosis and for critical monitoring of complement-targeted therapy. These changes are a result of the growing understanding of the involvement of complement in a diverse set of disorders. To appreciate the importance of proper complement analysis, it is important to understand the role it plays in disease. Historically, it was the absence of complement as manifested in severe infection that was noted. Since then complement has been connected to a variety of inflammatory disorders, such as autoimmune diseases and hereditary angioedema. While the role of complement in the rejection of renal grafts has been known longer, the significant impact of complement. In certain nephropathies has now led to the reclassification of some rare kidney diseases and an increased role for complement analysis in diagnosis. Even more unexpected is that complement has also been implicated in neural, ophtalmological and dermatological disorders. With this level of involvement in some varied and impactful health issues proper complement testing is clearly important; however, analysis of the complement system varies widely among laboratories. Except for a few proteins, such as C3 and C4, there are neither well-characterized standard preparations nor calibrated assays available. This is especially true for the inter-laboratory variation of tests which assess classical, alternative, or lectin pathway function. In addition, there is a need for the standardization of the measurement of complement activation products that are so critical in determining whether clinically relevant complement activation has occurred in vivo. Finally, autoantibodies to complement proteins (e.g. anti-C1q), C3 and C4 convertases (C3 and C4 nephritic factor) or to regulatory proteins

  17. Soil salinity detection from satellite image analysis: an integrated approach of salinity indices and field data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morshed, Md Manjur; Islam, Md Tazmul; Jamil, Raihan

    2016-02-01

    This paper attempts to detect soil salinity from satellite image analysis using remote sensing and geographic information system. Salinity intrusion is a common problem for the coastal regions of the world. Traditional salinity detection techniques by field survey and sampling are time-consuming and expensive. Remote sensing and geographic information system offer economic and efficient salinity detection, monitoring, and mapping. To predict soil salinity, an integrated approach of salinity indices and field data was used to develop a multiple regression equation. The correlations between different indices and field data of soil salinity were calculated to find out the highly correlated indices. The best regression model was selected considering the high R (2) value, low P value, and low Akaike's Information Criterion. About 20% variation was observed between the field data and predicted EC from the satellite image analysis. The precision of this salinity detection technique depends on the accuracy and uniform distribution of field data.

  18. Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, J. Tenreiro; Duarte, Fernando B.; Duarte, Gonçalo Monteiro

    2011-12-01

    We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

  19. Fish Assemblage Indicators for the National Rivers and Streams Assessment: Performance of model-based vs. traditionally constructed multimetric indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) for use in assessing the ecological condition of rivers and streams has advanced in recent years with the use of various types of modeling approaches to factor out the influence of natural variability and improve the performance. Ass...

  20. ANALYSIS OF THE COHERENCE OF LOGISTIC SYSTEMS FROM URBAN ENVIROMNENTS USING THE INFORMATIONAL INDICES

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe BASANU; Victor TELEASA

    2010-01-01

    The paper introduces a series of analysis models of the flows of materials and products existent inside a logistic system, elaborated according to the entropic and informational indices introduced in the first part of the paper, which are: informational entropy, the quantity of information, the organization degree, the mutual information, the informational energy and the coefficient of informational correlation. The theoretical elements are used in case studies in the second part of the paper...

  1. Aggregating Indices of Governance Quality: An Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    AF) pour examiner 24 indices de gouvernance de source générale qui visent à mesurer les niveaux de démocratie, de développement économique et de...conforme aux définitions déjà établies de la bonne gouvernance . Nous avons mis à profit les travaux antérieurs en effectuant une analyse plus...et formulant des conseils supplémentaires pour l’usage de ces mesures dans l’évaluation de la gouvernance étatique. DRDC Toronto TR 2011-022

  2. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    Narrative; any number of works concerning New Critics and New Criticism , a powerful move- ment in the literary world influential especially in the 1940...search for the secrets of life itself, But in some sense this dream of Al is the archetypal dream of much of contemporary inquiry. It is not to find a... literary theory .... We have not minimized the obstacles to effective warning analysis by the human -- there is ample discussion of these below -- but it

  3. Quantitative Indicators for Defense Analysis. Volume II. Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-06-01

    34*"WTOiw«* piB ^ r- ••’ ’ ’■’.WH""" - "«.JH QUAURANT II Hot War JIoL ]War land i Cold I |Criscs War iThreaten ed - Crisis 1...34The Political Analysis of Negotiations," World Politics 26. 3 (April). ^(1971) The Politics of Trade Negotiations Between Africa and the EEC

  4. Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer L. Castle

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a ‘split-half’ analysis, the simplest specialization of a multiple-path block-search algorithm. Monte Carlo simulations, extended to sequential reduction, confirm the accuracy of nominal significance levels under the null and show retentions when location shifts occur, improving the non-null retention frequency compared to the corresponding impulse-indicator saturation (IIS-based method and the lasso.

  5. ARMA-GARCH Model and temporal precedence between stock indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Faced with the need for risk valuation of financial assets, investors demand sophisticated methods of modeling that can judge the variability of their investments. At the same time, financial globalization has been characterized by common movements and trends between different international markets. In this context, the main objective of this paper was to model the statistical volatility of the Bovespa Index (Ibovespa and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, using ARMA-GARCH adjustments, in addition to checking the existence of a long- -term balance and temporal precedence between these variables, using the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests, respectively. The results established a higher heterogeneous variance for Ibovespa and the existence of temporal precedence for the Dow Jones Index, despite the absence of any long-term balance between the series. It is understood that the latter behavior may have been caused by the existing difference between the conditional heteroscedasticity of each index.

  6. Quality indicators for the analysis of communication in an online course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Pezzotti

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the development and validation of quality indicators for analyzing forums interactions in an online course in biology teaching. The aim is to evaluate the quality of communication so as to strengthen the tutor’s role and help students learn fundamental biology concepts while enhancing their collaboration competencies. The indicators are used to analyze cognitive, metacognitive and relational aspects, drawing on a content analysis methodology. The model appears to have a wide range of possible applications in other online courses.

  7. ANALYSIS OF PRICE SERIES USING HOLT’S INDICATOR OF STOCK MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Yegorova N. Y.; Tikhnenko A. N.

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to the development of an indicator to detect changes in the dynamics of stock price series that could lead to loss of optimality of the trading models parameters. Feature of the new tools of technical analysis is sensitive not only to the trend component securities prices, but also to the volatility of financial assets. In this work proposes the use of this indicator as part of risk management at the stock market, formulates practical advice on how to use and configure ...

  8. A process-based mathematical model on methane production with emission indices for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, A; Bhattacharaya, D K

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, a process-based mathematical model is developed for the production of methane through biodegradation. It is a three-dimensional model given by ordinary differential equations. The results of the analysis of the model are interpreted through three emission indices, which are introduced for the first time. The estimation of either one or all of them can interpret the feasibility of the equilibrium and the long-term emission tendency of methane. The vulnerability of the methane production process with respect to soil temperature effects in methanogenic phase has been discussed and a feasible condition within a specified temperature range has defined for the nonvulnerability of the methane production process and also it has shown that under the same condition, zero-emission process of methane will be nonvulnerable with respect to the soil temperature effects in methanogenic phase. Lastly, condition for zero emission of methane is also obtained and it is interpreted through the emission indices.

  9. CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE AUDIT COMMITTEE AND STRUCTURAL INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FÜLÖP MELINDA TIMEA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The main role of corporate governance is to restore market confidence and in this process plays an important role the audit committee. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the correlations between the Audit Committee and structural indicators. Considering the achievement of the objectives proposed in this research, our research is based on a deductive approach from general aspects to particular aspects that combines quantitative and qualitative studies. Theoretical knowledge is used for a better understanding of a phenomenon and not for making assumptions. Thus, in order to achieve our study, we selected 25 companies listed on Berlin Stock Exchange. Following this study, we concluded that the role of the audit committee is crucial.

  10. CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE AUDIT COMMITTEE AND PROFITABILITY INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MELINDA TIMEA FÜLÖP

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The main role of corporate governance is to restore market confidence and in this process plays an important role the audit committee. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the correlations between the Audit Committee and profitability indicators. Considering the achievement of the objectives proposed in this research, our research is based on a deductive approach from general aspects to particular aspects that combines quantitative and qualitative studies. Theoretical knowledge is used for a better understanding of a phenomenon and not for making assumptions. Thus, in order to achieve our study, we selected 25 companies listed on Berlin Stock Exchange. Following this study, we concluded that the role of the audit committee is crucial.

  11. Analysis of the changes in keratoplasty indications and preferred techniques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan J Lang

    Full Text Available Recently, novel techniques introduced to the field of corneal surgery, e.g. Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK and corneal crosslinking, extended the therapeutic options. Additionally contact lens fitting has developed new alternatives. We herein investigated, whether these techniques have affected volume and spectrum of indications of keratoplasties in both a center more specialized in treating Fuchs' dystrophy (center 1 and a second center that is more specialized in treating keratoconus (center 2.We retrospectively reviewed the waiting lists for indication, transplantation technique and the patients' travel distances to the hospital at both centers.We reviewed a total of 3778 procedures. Fuchs' dystrophy increased at center 1 from 17% (42 to 44% (150 and from 13% (27 to 23% (62 at center 2. In center 1, DMEK increased from zero percent in 2010 to 51% in 2013. In center 2, DMEK was not performed until 2013. The percentage of patients with keratoconus slightly decreased from 15% (36 in 2009 vs. 12% (40 in 2013 in center 1. The respective percentages in center 2 were 28% (57 and 19% (51. In both centers, the patients' travel distances increased.The results from center 1 suggest that DMEK might increase the total number of keratoplasties. The increase in travel distance suggests that this cannot be fully attributed to recruiting the less advanced patients from the hospital proximity. The increase is rather due to more referrals from other regions. The decrease of keratoconus patients in both centers is surprising and may be attributed to optimized contact lens fitting or even to the effect corneal crosslinking procedure.

  12. Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

  13. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  14. On the Usage of Geomagnetic Indices for Data Selection in Internal Field Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauristie, K.; Morschhauser, A.; Olsen, N.; Finlay, C. C.; McPherron, R. L.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Opgenoorth, H. J.

    2016-12-01

    We present a review on geomagnetic indices describing global geomagnetic storm activity (Kp, am, Dst and dDst/dt) and on indices designed to characterize high latitude currents and substorms (PC and AE-indices and their variants). The focus in our discussion is in main field modelling, where indices are primarily used in data selection criteria for weak magnetic activity. The publicly available extensive data bases of index values are used to derive joint conditional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for different pairs of indices in order to investigate their mutual consistency in describing quiet conditions. This exercise reveals that Dst and its time derivative yield a similar picture as Kp on quiet conditions as determined with the conditions typically used in internal field modelling. Magnetic quiescence at high latitudes is typically searched with the help of Merging Electric Field (MEF) as derived from solar wind observations. We use in our PDF analysis the PC-index as a proxy for MEF and estimate the magnetic activity level at auroral latitudes with the AL-index. With these boundary conditions we conclude that the quiet time conditions that are typically used in main field modelling ( PC-300 nT) can take place, when these criteria prevail. Although AE-indices have been designed to probe electrojet activity only in average conditions and thus their performance is not optimal during weak activity, we note that careful data selection with advanced AE-variants may appear to be the most practical way to lower the elevated RMS-values which still exist in the residuals between modeled and observed values at high latitudes. Recent initiatives to upgrade the AE-indices, either with a better coverage of observing stations and improved baseline corrections (the SuperMAG concept) or with higher accuracy in pinpointing substorm activity (the Midlatitude Positive Bay-index) will most likely be helpful in these efforts.

  15. Analyzing Latent State-Trait and Multiple-Indicator Latent Growth Curve Models as Multilevel Structural Equation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eGeiser

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Latent state-trait (LST and latent growth curve (LGC models are frequently used in the analysis of longitudinal data. Although it is well-known that standard single-indicator LGC models can be analyzed within either the structural equation modeling (SEM or multilevel (ML; hierarchical linear modeling frameworks, few researchers realize that LST and multivariate LGC models, which use multiple indicators at each time point, can also be specified as ML models. In the present paper, we demonstrate that using the ML-SEM rather than the SL-SEM framework to estimate the parameters of these models can be practical when the study involves (1 a large number of time points, (2 individually-varying times of observation, (3 unequally spaced time intervals, and/or (4 incomplete data. Despite the practical advantages of the ML-SEM approach under these circumstances, there are also some limitations that researchers should consider. We present an application to an ecological momentary assessment study (N = 158 youths with an average of 23.49 observations of positive mood per person using the software Mplus (Muthén & Muthén, 1998-2012 and discuss advantages and disadvantages of using the ML-SEM approach to estimate the parameters of LST and multiple-indicator LGC models.

  16. Spectral Color Indices Based Geospatial Modeling of Soil Organic Matter in Chitwan District, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Umesh K.

    2016-06-01

    Space Technology provides a resourceful-cost effective means to assess soil nutrients essential for soil management plan. Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of valuable controlling productivity of crops by providing nutrient in farming systems. Geospatial modeling of soil organic matter is essential if there is unavailability of soil test laboratories and its strong spatial correlation. In the present analysis, soil organic matter is modeled from satellite image derived spectral color indices. Brightness Index (BI), Coloration Index (CI), Hue Index (HI), Redness Index (RI) and Saturation Index (SI) were calculated by converting DN value to radiance and radiance to reflectance from Thematic Mapper image. Geospatial model was developed by regressing SOM with color indices and producing multiple regression model using stepwise regression technique. The multiple regression equation between SOM and spectral indices was significant with R = 0. 56 at 95% confidence level. The resulting MLR equation was then used for the spatial prediction for the entire study area. Redness Index was found higher significance in estimating the SOM. It was used to predict SOM as auxiliary variables using cokringing spatial interpolation technique. It was tested in seven VDCs of Chitwan district of Nepal using Thematic Mapper remotely sensed data. SOM was found to be measured ranging from 0.15% to 4.75 %, with a mean of 2.24 %. Remotely sensed data derived spectral color indices have the potential as useful auxiliary variables for estimating SOM content to generate soil fertility management plans.

  17. Body mass indices analysis in the German Giant Ram breed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Patruica

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of the main body mass indices in the giant German ram breed was performed between 6.06.2014 and 10.06.2014 in a rabbitry from Diniaș town, Timiș County. The biological material was represented by 16 adult rabbit females and 10 adult males, with the average body weight of 7 kg, raised in semi-intensive system. There have been performed the following body measurements: oblique and horizontal length of the trunk, the length of thorax, the length of head, the length of ears, of neck, and of tail, the height at weithers and rump, the height of thorax and stern, the width of chest, of thorax, of rump at hip and ischia, the wide width of forehead, the thoracic circumference and the circumference of shin. Giant German Ram males have registered higher values in the body size index, in the pelvic-thoracic index, and in the rump angle index compared to females from the same breed, which have registered higher values in the index of transverse body size, in the index of massiveness, in the pelvic-thoracic index, and in the cephalic index.

  18. Has socialism failed? An analysis of health indicators under socialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, V

    1992-01-01

    This article analyzes the widely held assumption in academia and the mainstream press that capitalism has proven superior to socialism in responding to human needs. The author surveys the health conditions of the world's populations, continent by continent, and shows that, contrary to dominant ideology, socialism and socialist forces have been, for the most part, better able to improve health conditions than have capitalism and capitalist forces. In the underdeveloped world, socialist forces and regimes have, more frequently than not, improved health and social indicators better than capitalist forces and regimes, and in the developed world, countries with strong socialist forces have been better able to improve health conditions than those countries lacking or with weak socialist forces. The socialist experience has, of course, also included negative developments that have negated important components of the socialist project. Still, the evidence presented in this article shows that the historical experience of socialism has not been one of failure. To the contrary: it has been, for the most part, more successful than capitalism in improving the health conditions of the world's populations.

  19. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  20. Communication Analysis modelling techniques

    CERN Document Server

    España, Sergio; Pastor, Óscar; Ruiz, Marcela

    2012-01-01

    This report describes and illustrates several modelling techniques proposed by Communication Analysis; namely Communicative Event Diagram, Message Structures and Event Specification Templates. The Communicative Event Diagram is a business process modelling technique that adopts a communicational perspective by focusing on communicative interactions when describing the organizational work practice, instead of focusing on physical activities1; at this abstraction level, we refer to business activities as communicative events. Message Structures is a technique based on structured text that allows specifying the messages associated to communicative events. Event Specification Templates are a means to organise the requirements concerning a communicative event. This report can be useful to analysts and business process modellers in general, since, according to our industrial experience, it is possible to apply many Communication Analysis concepts, guidelines and criteria to other business process modelling notation...

  1. Cosmographic analysis from distance indicator and dynamical redshift drift

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Ming-Jian; Xia, Jun-Qing

    2016-01-01

    Cosmography is a model-independent description to the cosmic evolution, but suffers a serious convergence issue in confront of the supernova data, especially for high redshift $z>1$. To ensure data in the convergence radius, $y=z/(1+z)$ redshift was defined. However, discussions about the usefulness of $y$-redshift and the leading cause of the issue are commonly absent. In the present paper, we study the cosmography in both $z$ and $y$ redshift using the supernova and mock redshift drift data. By introducing the bias-variance tradeoff, we reveal that the large bias square between cosmography and Union2.1 supernova data is the "chief culprit" of convergence issue. Moreover, expansion up to higher order and introduction of the $y$-redshift both are not effective to reconcile this contradiction. Minimizing risk, it suggests that Taylor expansion up to the second term is a better choice for available supernova data. Forecast from future supernova data and redshift drift shows that redshift drift can give much tig...

  2. ANALYSIS OF THE GDP IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BASED ON MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Cristian CIUCU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Republic of Moldova is listed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF and by the World Bank as a country with a transitional economy and studies of the evolution of the economy are of interest. Data has been gathered for a quantitative analysis of the economy using a multiple regression model (with the aid of computer software tools: Microsoft Excel with the Analysis ToolPak add-in and MathWorks - MATLAB, in order to determine if there is a significant importance of some major macroeconomic indicators to the GDP. The indicators used in the study are GDP, exports of goods and services (% of GDP, inflation - GDP deflator (annual %, central government debt (% of GDP and unemployment (% of total labor force.

  3. Regression Analysis of Right-censored Failure Time Data with Missing Censoring Indicators

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Chen; Ren He; Jun-shan Shen; Jian-guo Sun

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses regression analysis of right-censored failure time data when censoring indicators are missing for some subjects. Several methods have been developed for the analysis under different situations and especially, Goetghebeur and Ryan[4] considered the situation where both the failure time and the censoring time follow the proportional hazards models marginally and developed an estimating equation approach. One limitation of their approach is that the two baseline hazard functions were assumed to be proportional to each other. We consider the same problem and present an efficient estimation procedure for regression parameters that does not require the proportionality assumption. An EM algorithm is developed and the method is evaluated by a simulation study, which indicates that the proposed methodology performs well for practical situations. An illustrative example is provided.

  4. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  5. Mysterious multiculturalism: the risks of using model-based indices for making meaningful comparisons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duyvendak, J.W.; van Reekum, R.; El-Hajjari, F.; Bertossi, C.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we discuss key problems of model-based indices and their indicators used by the students of cross-national differences in the field of immigration, integration and citizenship policies. Model-based indices aggregate scores on a variety of indicators. We scrutinize the risks of

  6. Prediction of gas chromatographic retention indices as classifier in non-target analysis of environmental samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Nadin; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Brack, Werner

    2013-04-12

    Kováts and Lee retention indices were predicted by the help of experimental and calculated boiling points and also by linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) models. The developed approaches should be applied as classifiers in non-target analysis of environmental samples to identify contaminants. To demonstrate the application as a classifier, an example of 14 isomers with empirical formula C12H10O2 was selected. Furthermore, seven compounds with different molecular composition were used to illustrate the application in non-target analysis, where progressive candidate exclusion is performed. The models help to reduce the number of potential candidates, and seem to be a useful addition to already existing classifiers.

  7. A Cognitive Modeling Method of the Life Quality Indicators in Terms of External Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Massel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a potential use of the methods of cognitive modeling in the field of quality of life. The quality of life, as a universal indicator of human self-perception to feel his sense of satisfaction from various parts of his life, is difficult to assess by strictly mathematical methods, so the authors suggest using the cognitive modeling. The quality of life in his estimation for the convenience of research activity is divided into components - indicators of the quality of life. The widespread indicator "quality of life" and the complexity of the development of its assessment methods lead to high relevance of the authors-proposed method.The introduction provides an overview of current approaches to assessing the quality of life. Among all these approaches the most advantageous is an objectively subjective one. The paper gives a brief assessment of cognitive modeling methods, which are, essentially, a way of graphic and structural elements of reflection and relationships in complex systems. As a result of the analysis of existing research in this area, was found the potential for creating cognitive models of the quality of life and its indicators and was defined the place of the proposed method, among others. The paper presents the method itself, as a series of steps, and focuses on the promising opportunities for researchers of the quality of life from its using.Among the possible lines to use cognitive modeling of the life quality indicators can be three main ones: implementation of new methods to assess the quality of life; choice of the most appropriate technique for a particular study among available methods; realization of the cognitive model and numerical experiment, which allows seeing the effect of external factors on the individual indicators of the quality of life. Thus, due to the high relevance and significant benefits from the use of the proposed method, the article is of interest to researchers of the quality of life

  8. QSTR with extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices. 15. Development of predictive models for toxicity of organic chemicals against fathead minnow using second-generation ETA indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, K; Das, R Narayan

    2012-01-01

    Modern industrialisation has led to the production of millions of toxic chemicals having hazardous effects on the ecosystem. It is impracticable to determine the toxic potential of a large number of chemicals in animal models, making the use of quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models an alternative strategy for toxicity prediction. Recently we introduced a set of second-generation extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices for predictive modelling. Here we have developed predictive toxicity models on a large dataset of 459 diverse chemicals against fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) using the second-generation ETA indices. These descriptors can be easily calculated from two-dimensional molecular representation without the need of time-consuming conformational analysis and alignment, making the developed models easily reproducible. Considering the importance of hydrophobicity for toxicity prediction, AlogP98 was used as an additional predictor in all the models, which were validated rigorously using multiple strategies. The ETA models were comparable in predictability to those involving various non-ETA topological parameters and those previously reported using various descriptors including computationally demanding quantum-chemical ones.

  9. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN AND HUNGARIAN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsár Edina

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, when we are witnessing a serious macro-level changes, to deal with financial and economic indicators becomes more and more important in the economy, in particular to evaluate the changes of these indicators and especially their impact to the private sector. This paper aims to analyze in comparison for two countries, in what extent can explain the changes of the most important stock market indices with the fluctuations of those two countries national currency exchange rates in euro. To determinate the relationship between the macro indicators we’ve used traditional statistical methods, namely simple linear regression model and the Bayesian statistics. In case of both Romania and Hungary, the analyses show that there is a relationship between exchange rates and the changes of stock indices. If we compare the analysis results of the two countries, we can see that the relationship between the BET index and Lei/EUR exchange rate is much more stronger than between the BUX index and Ft/EUR exchange rate, in the latter case we can see a much weaker relationship.

  10. Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy

    2014-01-01

    Background Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. Methodology In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. Principal findings Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST); primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as seagrass and macroalgae

  11. Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jacomina Heymans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. METHODOLOGY: In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST; primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as

  12. Analysis and Evaluation Indicator Selection of Chilling Tolerance of Different Cotton Genotypes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    [Objectivc] This study aimed to investigate the chilling tolerance of seedlings of different cotton genotypes and screen appropriate indicators for assess- ing chilling tolerance, to establish reliable mathematical evaluation model for chilling tolerance of cotton, thus providing theoretical basis for breeding and promoting new chilling-tolerant cotton germplasms and large-scale evaluation of chilling tolerance of cotton varieties. [Method] Fifteen cotton varieties (lines) were used as experimental materials. The photosynthetic gas exchange parameters, chlorophyll fluorescence ki- netic parameters, chlorophyll content, relative soluble sugar content, malonaldehyde content, relative proiine content, relative conductivity and other 12 physiological indi- cators of seedling leaves under low temperature treatment (5 ℃, 12 h) and recovery treatment (25 ℃. 24 h) were determined; based on the chilling tolerance coefficient (CTC) of various individual indicators, the comprehensive evaluation of chilling toler- ance was conducled by using principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster anal- ysis and stepwise regression analysis. [Result] The results showed that the 12 indi- vidual physiological indicators could be classified into 7 independent comprehensive components by principal component analysis; 15 cotton varieties (lines) were clus- tered into three categories by using membership function method and hierarchical cluster analysis; the mathematical model for evaluating chilling tolerance of cotton seedlings was established: D =0.275 -0.244Fo1 +0.206Fv/Fm1+0.326g,%-0.056SS + 0.225MDA+O.O38REC (FF=0.995), and the evaluation accuracy of the equation was higher than 94.25%,0. Six identification indicators closely related to chilling tolerance were screened, including Fo,, Fv/Fm1, Seedling leaves of cotton varieties (lines) gs2, SS, MDA, and REC. [Conclusion] with high chilling tolerance are less dam- aged under low temperature stress, and are able to maintain

  13. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  14. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  15. Effectiveness of technical analysis indicators over stock return: A Panel Data Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kutluk Kaðan SÜMER

    2015-01-01

    Technical analysis aims on visually identifying geometrical patterns and indicators in price charts in order to anticipate price “trends”. This paper investigates the relations between return and technical analysis indicators of Turkish commercial banking sector in BIST-BANKING index for the period 1-1-2000- 31-12-2013. Technical analysis indicators are generated by taking into account the daily stock prices. The general steps go through the identification of the relations for the securities ...

  16. Parameterization of FAO's AquaCrop Model by Integrating a Hydrological Model and Climate Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhorn, C.; Kienzle, S. W.; Doria, R.; Jiskoot, H.; Cheng, H.

    2014-12-01

    One of the greatest global challenges is to meet growing food demand under rapidly changing climate conditions. Continued global population growth increases the pressure on the agriculture sector to produce enough food to feed the world. In 2013, the province of Alberta, Canada, set a record high for principal field crop production of 34.5 million tonnes (Matejovsky, 2014). AquaCrop, a crop yield and water productivity model developed by the Land and Water Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), attempts to balance the accuracy, simplicity and robustness of crop modelling (Steduto et al., 2009). The model is focused on the three components of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. AquaCrop is applied in this study for simulating hard red spring wheat and durum wheat yields, and simulated yields are verified against observed yields available from a crop insurer. One of the challenges of crop yield modelling is the selection of a realistic seeding date, which can vary by four to five weeks (end of March to end of April). In order to enable realistic simulation for the historical period 1950-2010 as well the future period 2041-2070, AquaCrop is coupled with the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system to determine the soil moisture conditions after the spring snow melt, and with a WMO climate index which determines the climatological beginning of the growing season. Therefore, the selection of a realistic seeding data for individual years can be dynamically optimized, based on the combination of the beginning of the climatological growing season and soil moisture status. The results of the coupling of ACRU and calculated climate indices with AquaCrop will be presented to show how improvements of parameterization of the AquaCrop model can be used to simulate wheat yields in Southern Alberta under changing climate conditions.

  17. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liesje Coertjens

    Full Text Available The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  18. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coertjens, Liesje; Donche, Vincent; De Maeyer, Sven; Vanthournout, Gert; Van Petegem, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  19. Modeling using clinical examination indicators predicts interstitial lung disease among patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yao; Song, Wuqi; Wu, Jing; Li, Zhangming; Mu, Fengyun; Li, Yang; Huang, He; Zhu, Wenliang

    2017-01-01

    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a severe extra-articular manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that is well-defined as a chronic systemic autoimmune disease. A proportion of patients with RA-associated ILD (RA-ILD) develop pulmonary fibrosis (PF), resulting in poor prognosis and increased lifetime risk. We investigated whether routine clinical examination indicators (CEIs) could be used to identify RA patients with high PF risk. A total of 533 patients with established RA were recruited in this study for model building and 32 CEIs were measured for each of them. To identify PF risk, a new artificial neural network (ANN) was built, in which inputs were generated by calculating Euclidean distance of CEIs between patients. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that the ANN performed well in predicting the PF risk (Youden index = 0.436) by only incorporating four CEIs including age, eosinophil count, platelet count, and white blood cell count. A set of 218 RA patients with healthy lungs or suffering from ILD and a set of 87 RA patients suffering from PF were used for independent validation. Results showed that the model successfully identified ILD and PF with a true positive rate of 84.9% and 82.8%, respectively. The present study suggests that model integration of multiple routine CEIs contributes to identification of potential PF risk among patients with RA.

  20. Assessment of indices of temperature extremes simulated by multiple CMIP5 models over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Siyan; Xu, Ying; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying

    2015-08-01

    Given that climate extremes in China might have serious regional and global consequences, an increasing number of studies are examining temperature extremes in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. This paper investigates recent changes in temperature extremes in China using 25 state-of-the-art global climate models participating in CMIP5. Thirteen indices that represent extreme temperature events were chosen and derived by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including those representing the intensity (absolute indices and threshold indices), duration (duration indices), and frequency (percentile indices) of extreme temperature. The overall performance of each model is summarized by a "portrait" diagram based on relative root-mean-square error, which is the RMSE relative to the median RMSE of all models, revealing the multi-model ensemble simulation to be better than individual model for most indices. Compared with observations, the models are able to capture the main features of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature during 1986-2005. Overall, the CMIP5 models are able to depict the observed indices well, and the spatial structure of the ensemble result is better for threshold indices than frequency indices. The spread amongst the CMIP5 models in different subregions for intensity indices is small and the median CMIP5 is close to observations; however, for the duration and frequency indices there can be wide disagreement regarding the change between models and observations in some regions. The model ensemble also performs well in reproducing the observational trend of temperature extremes. All absolute indices increase over China during 1961-2005.

  1. Comparison of drought stress indices in beech forests: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilhar U

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Two drought stress indices were applied to managed as well as old-growth beech forests and gaps for the 2001 to 2013 period to aid in the development of an efficient tool for field water supply diagnosis. The relative extractable soil water (REW, which was calculated from the soil water content in the root zone, and the transpiration index (TI, calculated as the ratio between the actual and potential transpiration were used. Both indices were calculated on a daily basis using the water balance model BROOK90, which was fitted and tested using measured data on throughfall and soil water content. A sensitivity analysis apportioned to the input parameters of the drought stress indices was conducted to assess uncertainty. Both drought stress indices showed the greatest drought stress in the years 2009, 2003 and 2011, as also indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI at the nearest meteorological station. However, drought stress intensity and duration differed between the indices and study sites. Greater water supply stress was shown in the forests than the gaps. Furthermore, the agreement among the indices was smaller for gaps compared with forests, which implies that careful index selection is needed when comparing water supply stresses in different stages of forest stand development. Due to the low amount of input data required and the parameters that can be measured with relative ease in the field, REW might be an efficient tool for field water supply diagnosis when analyzing the drought stresses of similar forest types and at unique stages of development. REW satisfactorily indicated drought stress in forests but to a lesser extent in gaps. TI demonstrated more consistent differences in drought stress between forests and gaps and therefore proved to be the appropriate index for a detailed analysis of drought stress variation between different stages of forest stand development. However, due to a greater number of

  2. Modeling Rain-fed Wheat and Barley based on Meteorological Features and Drought Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mosaedi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Weather features and their variations have an important role in the yield of agricultural products, especially in rain-fed conditions. The main metrological variables that affected yields consist of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and solar radiation. Also, drought is one of the major constraints to production, especially the mid-season drought which occurs during the podand seed formation stages and the terminal drought which occurs during the pod filling stage. The results of investigating the relation between drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, Crop Moisture index (CMI and Z index with crop yields indicated the capability of these indices to estimate variations in crop yields. The objective of this study in the first step is investigation of relations among wheat and barley crop yields with climatic variables and SPI and RDI drought indices based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA method at Bojnourd, Mashhad and Birjand stations. In addition, by selecting the prominent variables via PCA method, the best models of estimating each crop’s yield based on multivariate regression methods at selected stations were determined. Materials and Methods: In this study, the relationship between yields of rain-fed wheat and barley with weather variables consisting of minimum, mean and maximum temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and drought indices including SPI and RDI were investigated and modeled at Bojnourd, Mashhad and Birjand stations. For this purpose, the values of each variable were calculated for 34 time scales of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 9 months and wet periods (nine 1-month periods, eight 2- month periods, seven 3- month periods, six 4- month periods, two 6- month periods, one wet period (5 or 7-month and one 9-month period. After that, the main influencing variables were chosen among investigated time periods for each variable by using the method

  3. Social Capital in a Region: Revisiting the Measurement and Building of an Indicator Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afanas’ev Dmitrii Vladimirovich

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of social capital is gaining certain stability in the social studies. The heuristic potential of the concept is confirmed by numerous studies which prove the positive impact of levels and types of social capital on a wide range of social phenomena. Approaches to theoretical justification of social capital empirical appraisal are being formed, which is particularly relevant amid of general economic and structural crisis. However, science still lacks a generally accepted definition of social capital and the agreement on the ways to measure it. The article aims to theoretically justify the building of an indicator model for empirical measurement of social capital, which implies a set of indicators generated for a particular conceptual framework and helping obtain organized information about the phenomenon under study in order to identify the correlation between its components. The article is intended to foreground the need for social capital empirical measurement and comparison. The article contains analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of social capital, notes its multi-aspect nature and productive ideas about the triadic nature of social capital lying at the interface between sociology, political science and economics. On the basis of generalization of positions concerning the types of social capital presented in scientific literature, the authors make a conclusion about the fundamental importance of distinguishing bridging and bonding social capital; of the necessity to identify special indicators for these types of social capital and their formal and informal components. The article presents the authors’ approach to building a social capital indicator model, including cognitive (readiness to join, responsibility for the state of affairs and structural elements (degree of participation in public activity, degree of participation in political activity, ability to influence the state of affairs, which helps obtain a

  4. Analysis of the modal and operational indicators of 110 to 750 kilovolt voltage substations of a power system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovseychuk, V.A.; Shesteren, V.Ye.

    1983-01-01

    Studies are conducted using statistical and mathematical methods of the schedules of electrical loads and correlated modal and operational indicators of regional 100 to 750 kilovolt substations (PS) of the country's electric power system (EES). An analysis is conducted of the graphs and correlated modal and operational indicators of step down regional 110 to 750 kilovolt substations and the tendencies in the configuration of the daily schedules and the modal operational indicators are established. Probabilistic and statistical models of the loads of substations are developed. Adequate regression models of the daily schedules of reactive loads of substations are obtained.

  5. Model Analysis ToolKit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-05-15

    MATK provides basic functionality to facilitate model analysis within the Python computational environment. Model analysis setup within MATK includes: - define parameters - define observations - define model (python function) - define samplesets (sets of parameter combinations) Currently supported functionality includes: - forward model runs - Latin-Hypercube sampling of parameters - multi-dimensional parameter studies - parallel execution of parameter samples - model calibration using internal Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm - model calibration using lmfit package - model calibration using levmar package - Markov Chain Monte Carlo using pymc package MATK facilitates model analysis using: - scipy - calibration (scipy.optimize) - rpy2 - Python interface to R

  6. Analyzing lichen indicator data in the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Will-Wolf

    2010-01-01

    Lichens are one of several forest health indicators sampled every year for a subset of plots on the permanent grid established by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. This report reviews analysis procedures for standard FIA lichen indicator data. Analyses of lichen data contribute to state, regional, and...

  7. Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong; Chai, Tianyou

    2017-09-01

    Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improve modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  8. Advanced Model of Squirrel Cage Induction Machine for Broken Rotor Bars Fault Using Multi Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilias Ouachtouk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Squirrel cage induction machine are the most commonly used electrical drives, but like any other machine, they are vulnerable to faults. Among the widespread failures of the induction machine there are rotor faults. This paper focuses on the detection of broken rotor bars fault using multi-indicator. However, diagnostics of asynchronous machine rotor faults can be accomplished by analysing the anomalies of machine local variable such as torque, magnetic flux, stator current and neutral voltage signature analysis. The aim of this research is to summarize the existing models and to develop new models of squirrel cage induction motors with consideration of the neutral voltage and to study the effect of broken rotor bars on the different electrical quantities such as the park currents, torque, stator currents and neutral voltage. The performance of the model was assessed by comparing the simulation and experimental results. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the model, and allow detection and diagnosis of these defects.

  9. Model Checking as Static Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Fuyuan

    Both model checking and static analysis are prominent approaches to detecting software errors. Model Checking is a successful formal method for verifying properties specified in temporal logics with respect to transition systems. Static analysis is also a powerful method for validating program...... properties which can predict safe approximations to program behaviors. In this thesis, we have developed several static analysis based techniques to solve model checking problems, aiming at showing the link between static analysis and model checking. We focus on logical approaches to static analysis......-calculus can be encoded as the intended model of SFP. Our research results have strengthened the link between model checking and static analysis. This provides a theoretical foundation for developing a unied tool for both model checking and static analysis techniques....

  10. Winterkill indicator model, Crop Condition Assessment Division (CCAD) data base interface driver, user's manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, R. F. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    Instructions are given for using the Winterkill indicator model CCAD data base interface driver. The purpose of the system is to interface the Winterkill Indicator Model with the CCAD operational data base. The interface driver routine decides what meteorological stations should be processed and calls the proper subroutines to process the stations.

  11. Wheat stress indicator model, Crop Condition Assessment Division (CCAD) data base interface driver, user's manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, R. F. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The use of the wheat stress indicator model CCAD data base interface driver is described. The purpose of this system is to interface the wheat stress indicator model with the CCAD operational data base. The interface driver routine decides what meteorological stations should be processed and calls the proper subroutines to process the stations.

  12. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators: a prospective study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning;

    2003-01-01

    This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators.......This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators....

  13. Developing of Indicators of an E-Learning Benchmarking Model for Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sae-Khow, Jirasak

    2014-01-01

    This study was the development of e-learning indicators used as an e-learning benchmarking model for higher education institutes. Specifically, it aimed to: 1) synthesize the e-learning indicators; 2) examine content validity by specialists; and 3) explore appropriateness of the e-learning indicators. Review of related literature included…

  14. Several Indicators of Critical Transitions for Complex Diseases Based on Stochastic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Gang; Li, Yuanyuan; Zou, Xiufen

    2017-01-01

    Many complex diseases (chronic disease onset, development and differentiation, self-assembly, etc.) are reminiscent of phase transitions in a dynamical system: quantitative changes accumulate largely unnoticed until a critical threshold is reached, which causes abrupt qualitative changes of the system. Understanding such nonlinear behaviors is critical to dissect the multiple genetic/environmental factors that together shape the genetic and physiological landscape underlying basic biological functions and to identify the key driving molecules. Based on stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, we theoretically derive three statistical indicators, that is, coefficient of variation (CV), transformed Pearson's correlation coefficient (TPC), and transformed probability distribution (TPD), to identify critical transitions and detect the early-warning signals of the phase transition in complex diseases. To verify the effectiveness of these early-warning indexes, we use high-throughput data for three complex diseases, including influenza caused by either H3N2 or H1N1 and acute lung injury, to extract the dynamical network biomarkers (DNBs) responsible for catastrophic transition into the disease state from predisease state. The numerical results indicate that the derived indicators provide a data-based quantitative analysis for early-warning signals for critical transitions in complex diseases or other dynamical systems.

  15. The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

    2016-06-01

    This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

  16. Standardized Regression Coefficients as Indices of Effect Sizes in Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Rae Seon

    2011-01-01

    When conducting a meta-analysis, it is common to find many collected studies that report regression analyses, because multiple regression analysis is widely used in many fields. Meta-analysis uses effect sizes drawn from individual studies as a means of synthesizing a collection of results. However, indices of effect size from regression analyses…

  17. Bayesian modeling in conjoint analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković-Milić Vesna

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical analysis in marketing is largely influenced by the availability of various types of data. There is sudden increase in the number and types of information available to market researchers in the last decade. In such conditions, traditional statistical methods have limited ability to solve problems related to the expression of market uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to highlight the advantages of bayesian inference, as an alternative approach to classical inference. Multivariate statistic methods offer extremely powerful tools to achieve many goals of marketing research. One of these methods is the conjoint analysis, which provides a quantitative measure of the relative importance of product or service attributes in relation to the other attribute. The application of this method involves interviewing consumers, where they express their preferences, and statistical analysis provides numerical indicators of each attribute utility. One of the main objections to the method of discrete choice in the conjoint analysis is to use this method to estimate the utility only at the aggregate level and by expressing the average utility for all respondents in the survey. Application of hierarchical Bayesian models enables capturing of individual utility ratings for each attribute level.

  18. Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qinbo; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Chen, Xi; Schulte, Achim

    2014-05-01

    The goodness-of-fit indicator, i.e. efficiency criterion, is very important for model calibration. However, recently the knowledge about the goodness-of-fit indicators is all empirical and lacks a theoretical support. Based on the likelihood theory, a unified distance-based goodness-of-fit indicator termed BC-GED model is proposed, which uses the Box-Cox (BC) transformation to remove the heteroscedasticity of model errors and the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model errors after BC. The BC-GED model can unify all recent distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators, and reveals the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) that are widely used goodness-of-fit indicators imply statistic assumptions that the model errors follow the Gaussian distribution and the Laplace distribution with zero-mean, respectively. The empirical knowledge about goodness-of-fit indicators can be also easily interpreted by BC-GED model, e.g. the sensitivity to high flow of the goodness-of-fit indicators with large power of model errors results from the low probability of large model error in the assumed distribution of these indicators. In order to assess the effect of the parameters (i.e. the BC transformation parameter λ and the GED kurtosis coefficient β also termed the power of model errors) of BC-GED model on hydrologic model calibration, six cases of BC-GED model were applied in Baocun watershed (East China) with SWAT-WB-VSA model. Comparison of the inferred model parameters and model simulation results among the six indicators demonstrates these indicators can be clearly separated two classes by the GED kurtosis β: β >1 and β ≤ 1. SWAT-WB-VSA calibrated by the class β >1 of distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators captures high flow very well and mimics the baseflow very badly, but it calibrated by the class β ≤ 1 mimics the baseflow very well, because first the larger value of β, the greater emphasis is put on

  19. A MULTI-COMPONENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A POSITRONIC MAJOR FLARE IN GRS 1915+105

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Punsly, Brian, E-mail: brian.punsly@verizon.net, E-mail: brian.punsly@comdev-usa.com [4014 Emerald Street No. 116, Torrance, CA 90503 (United States)

    2012-02-10

    A modeling strategy that is adapted to the study of synchrotron-self-absorbed plasmoids that was developed for the quasar Mrk 231 by Reynolds et al. is applied to the microquasar GRS 1915+105. The major flare from 1993 December shows spectral evidence of three such self-absorbed components. The analysis yields an estimate of the power that is required to eject the plasmoids from the central engine that is independent of other estimates that exist in the literature for different flares. The technique has an advantage since the absorbed spectrum contains an independent constraint provided by the optical depth at each epoch of observation. The modeling procedure presented here self-consistently determines the dimensions of the radio-emitting plasma from the spectral shape. Thus, structural dimensions are determined analytically that can be much smaller than interferometer beamwidths. A synthesis of the time evolution of the components allows one to address the fundamental uncertainties in previous estimates. First, the plasma is not protonic, but comprises an electron-positron gas. The minimum electron energy is determined to be less than six times the electron rest-mass energy. The analysis also indicates that the plasmoids are ejected from the central engine magnetically dominated. The temporal behavior is one of magnetic energy conversion to mechanical energy as the plasmoids approach equipartition. The time-dependent models bound the impulsive energy flux, Q, required to eject the individual major flare plasmoids from the central engine to, 4.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 37} erg s{sup -1} < Q < 6.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 38} erg s{sup -1}.

  20. Construction Of CIBEST Model as Measurement of Poverty and Welfare Indices From Islamic Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irfan Syauqi Beik

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the major challenges faced by most of the Islamic countries is poverty. This paper attempts to construct the concept of poverty and welfare standards based on Islamic perspective.The study tries to cover both material and spiritual dimensions. These standards are based on CIBEST Quadrant, which is divided into four quadrants: welfare quadrant (I, material poverty quadrant (II, spiritual poverty quadrant (III and absolute poverty quadrant (IV. Determination of these quadrants is resulted from criteria and indicators of basic material needs and basic spiritual needs. By using household as unit of analysis, this study is able to developCIBEST Model comprising welfare index,  material  poverty  index,  spiritual  poverty  index,  and  absolute  poverty index. Mathematical formula and illustration of the indices are also elaborated to strengthen the concept.DOI:10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1361

  1. The effects of digital elevation model resolution on the calculation and predictions of topographic wetness indices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drover, Damion, Ryan

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest exports in the Southeast U.S. is forest products. Interest in biofuels using forest biomass has increased recently, leading to more research into better forest management BMPs. The USDA Forest Service, along with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Georgia and Oregon State University are researching the impacts of intensive forest management for biofuels on water quality and quantity at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. Surface runoff of saturated areas, transporting excess nutrients and contaminants, is a potential water quality issue under investigation. Detailed maps of variable source areas and soil characteristics would therefore be helpful prior to treatment. The availability of remotely sensed and computed digital elevation models (DEMs) and spatial analysis tools make it easy to calculate terrain attributes. These terrain attributes can be used in models to predict saturated areas or other attributes in the landscape. With laser altimetry, an area can be flown to produce very high resolution data, and the resulting data can be resampled into any resolution of DEM desired. Additionally, there exist many maps that are in various resolutions of DEM, such as those acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey. Problems arise when using maps derived from different resolution DEMs. For example, saturated areas can be under or overestimated depending on the resolution used. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of DEM resolution on the calculation of topographic wetness indices used to predict variable source areas of saturation, and to find the best resolutions to produce prediction maps of soil attributes like nitrogen, carbon, bulk density and soil texture for low-relief, humid-temperate forested hillslopes. Topographic wetness indices were calculated based on the derived terrain attributes, slope and specific catchment area, from five different DEM resolutions. The DEMs were resampled from LiDAR, which is a

  2. A descriptive analysis of quantitative indices for multi-objective block layout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amalia Medina Palomera

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Layout generation methods provide alternative solutions whose feasibility and quality must be evaluated. Indices must be used to distinguish the feasible solutions (involving different criteria obtained for block layout to identify s solution’s suitability, according to set objectives. This paper provides an accurate and descriptive analysis of the geometric indices used in designing facility layout (during block layout phase. The indices studied here have advantages and disadvantages which should be considered by an analyst before attempting to resolve the facility layout problem. New equations are proposed for measuring geometric indices. The analysis revealed redundant indices and that a minimum number of indices covering overall quality criteria may be used when selecting alternative solutions.

  3. Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Performance Indicators for South Carolina's Technical Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad Nurul

    2010-01-01

    This study included an analysis of the trend of performance indicators for the technical college sector of higher education in South Carolina. In response to demands for accountability and transparency in higher education, the state of South Carolina developed sector specific performance indicators to measure various educational outcomes for each…

  4. Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Performance Indicators for South Carolina's Technical Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad Nurul

    2010-01-01

    This study included an analysis of the trend of performance indicators for the technical college sector of higher education in South Carolina. In response to demands for accountability and transparency in higher education, the state of South Carolina developed sector specific performance indicators to measure various educational outcomes for each…

  5. Comprehensive Evaluation of Economic Indicators in Guangxi Economic Zone Based on Parallel Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangdong; ZENG; Chunxiang; ZHAO

    2015-01-01

    When making comprehensive evaluation on economy of an area,it is always hard to choose evaluation indicator system and composite indicators reasonably. This article uses parallel analysis to choose the number of principal component and classify indicators by R clustering and load rotation matrix to assess the economy of various cities in the economic zone and analyze economic status of each city,to provide a scientific basis for the government functional department to make correct decisions.

  6. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  7. Modelling Dynamics of Main Indicators of Economic Activity of Households of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuk Mykola O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of the structure of the system of economic activity of households in Ukraine and dynamics of interconnections between the main indicators of its functioning. In order to study dynamics of main indicators of the system of economic activity of households, the article uses tools of econometric vector-autoregression modelling (VAR models. Based on the existing statistical data and a developed VAR model, the article studies individual and aggregate influence of lag values of indicators upon their current values, system reaction on main indicators impulses, analyses dynamics of change of explanation of dispersion of some indicators with others, and conducts two types of forecasts that reflect a general tendency of development of economic activity of households in Ukraine. High accuracy of forecasts obtained with the help of the proposed econometric model testifies to a possibility of its practical application for assessment of the state of main indicators of economic activity of households of Ukraine. The article applies for the first time the tools of VAR modelling for the study of economic activity of households in Ukraine, which expands possibilities of use of mathematical and statistical methods and models in this field of economy.

  8. Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolomeu, S.; Carvalho, M. J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Melo-Gonçalves, P.; Rocha, A.

    2016-08-01

    Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change. This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation. The annual trends estimated for the 1986-2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal. Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains

  9. The long-term memory analysis of industrial indices of the Chinese stock market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yong, L [Renmin University of China, Information School (China); Department of Mathematics, Beijing 100872 (China)], E-mail: linyong01@ruc.edu.cn

    2008-02-15

    The main work of this paper is to apply the fractional market theory and time series analysis for analyzing various industrial indices of the Chinese stock market by rescaling range analysis. Hurst index and the long-term memory of price change in Chinese stock market are studied.

  10. A Higher Order Analysis of the Factor Structure of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, William L.; Mauzey, Edward; Johnson, Annabel M.; Murphy, Stanley D.; Zimmerman, Kurt J.

    2001-01-01

    Examines the higher order structure of Form G of the Myers Briggs Type Indicator. A third order component analysis of a sample (N=926) found two higher order components. This higher order analysis contributes to the research literature pertaining to the generalized structure of the personality measure. (Contains 44 references and 1 table.) (GCP)

  11. The long-term memory analysis of industrial indices of the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, L.

    2008-02-01

    The main work of this paper is to apply the fractional market theory and time series analysis for analyzing various industrial indices of the Chinese stock market by rescaling range analysis. Hurst index and the long-term memory of price change in Chinese stock market are studied.

  12. A Higher Order Analysis of the Factor Structure of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, William L.; Mauzey, Edward; Johnson, Annabel M.; Murphy, Stanley D.; Zimmerman, Kurt J.

    2001-01-01

    Examines the higher order structure of Form G of the Myers Briggs Type Indicator. A third order component analysis of a sample (N=926) found two higher order components. This higher order analysis contributes to the research literature pertaining to the generalized structure of the personality measure. (Contains 44 references and 1 table.) (GCP)

  13. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OBTAINED BY CORINELAND COVER METHODOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE USE OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slaviša Popović

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Serbian Environmental Protection Agency followed international and national indicators to do monitoring of forested landscape area for the period 1990-2000. Based on the data obtained by Corine Land Cover methodology following the indicators like Forest area, Forested landscape, Forest land and Forest and semi natural area, analysis was done. The forested landscape indicators analysis helped trends monitoring during the period from 1990 - 2000 year. Dynamic of forested area changes could have direct impact on the practical implementation of indicators. Indicator Forest area can be used in planning sustainable use of forests. Recorded growth rates value in 2000year, compared to the 1990th is 0.296%. Indicator Forested landscape increase for 0.186% till 2000 year, while the indicator Forested Land recorded value growth rate of 0.193%. Changes in rates of those indicators can be used in the future for “emission trading”. The smallest increment of rate change of 0.1% was recorded in indicator Forests and semi natural area. Information given by this indicator can be used for monitoring habitats in high mountain areas.

  14. On the use of Biplot analysis for multivariate bibliometric and scientific indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Torres-Salinas, Daniel; Robinson-Garc??a, Nicol??s; Jim??nez-Contreras, Evaristo; Herrera, Francisco; Delgado L??pez-C??zar, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    Bibliometric mapping and visualization techniques represent one of the main pillars in the field of scientometrics. Traditionally, the main methodologies employed for representing data are Multi-Dimensional Scaling, Principal Component Analysis or Correspondence Analysis. In this paper we aim at presenting a visualization methodology known as Biplot analysis for representing bibliometric and science and technology indicators. A Biplot is a graphical representation of multivariate data, where ...

  15. A critical cluster analysis of 44 indicators of author-level performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between author-level bibliometric indicators and the researchers the "measure", exemplified across five academic seniorities and four disciplines. Using cluster methodology, the disciplinary and seniority appropriateness of author-level indicators is examined....... Publication and citation data for 741 researchers across Astronomy, Environmental Science, Philosophy and Public Health was collected in Web of Science (WoS). Forty-four indicators of individual performance were computed using the data. A two-step cluster analysis using IBM SPSS version 22 was performed......, followed by a risk analysis and ordinal logistic regression to explore cluster membership. Indicator scores were contextualized using the individual researcher's curriculum vitae. Four different clusters based on indicator scores ranked researchers as low, middle, high and extremely high performers...

  16. Analysis of Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavik Stefan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The term business model has been used in practice for few years, but companies create, define and innovate their models subconsciously from the start of business. Our paper is aimed to clear the theory about business model, hence definition and all the components that form each business. In the second part, we create an analytical tool and analyze the real business models in Slovakia and define the characteristics of each part of business model, i.e., customers, distribution, value, resources, activities, cost and revenue. In the last part of our paper, we discuss the most used characteristics, extremes, discrepancies and the most important facts which were detected in our research.

  17. Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.

    2016-01-01

    There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

  18. Teaching Quality Management Model for the Training of Innovation Ability and the Multilevel Decomposition Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xingjiang; Yao, Chen; Zheng, Jianmin

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the training of undergraduate students' innovation ability. On top of the theoretical framework of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD), we propose a teaching quality management model. Based on this model, we establish a multilevel decomposition indicator system, which integrates innovation ability characterized by four…

  19. Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

    2008-01-01

    The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

  20. Modelling macroinvertebrate and fish biotic indices: From reaches to entire river networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Cabria, Mario; González-Ferreras, Alexia M; Peñas, Francisco J; Barquín, José

    2017-01-15

    We modelled three macroinvertebrate (IASPT, EPT number of families and LIFE) and one fish (percentage of salmonid biomass) biotic indices to river networks draining a large region (110,000km(2)) placed in Northern and Eastern Spain. Models were developed using Random Forest and 26 predictor variables (19 predictors to model macroinvertebrate indices and 22 predictors to model the fish index). Predictor variables were related with different environmental characteristics (water quality, physical habitat characteristics, hydrology, topography, geology and human pressures). The importance and effect of predictors on the 4 biotic indices was evaluated with the IncNodePurity index and partial dependence plots, respectively. Results indicated that the spatial variability of macroinvertebrate and fish indices were mostly dependent on the same environmental variables. They decreased in river reaches affected by high mean annual nitrate concentration (>4mg/l) and temperature (>12°C), with low flow water velocity (macrophytes. These indices were higher in the Atlantic region than in the Mediterranean. This study provides a continuous image of river biological communities used as indicators, which turns very useful to identify the main sources of change in the ecological status of water bodies and assist both, the integrated catchment management and the identification of river reaches for recovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

    2013-12-01

    The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

  2. Feasibility analysis of widely accepted indicators as key ones in river health assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Yan; KANG Bin; YANG Liping

    2012-01-01

    Index systems on river health assessment are difficult for using in practice,due to the more complex and professional indicators adopted.In the paper,some key indicators which can be applied for river health assessment in general were selected,based on the analysis of 45 assessment index systems with 902 variables within around 150 published papers and documents in 1972-2010.According to the fields covered by the variables,they were divided into four groups:habitat condition,water environment,biotic status and water utilization.The adopted number and the accepted degrees in the above systems of each indicator were calculated after the variables were combined into the indicators,some of the widely accepted indicators which can reflect different aspects of river condition were selected as key indicators in candidate.Under the correlation analysis amongst the key indicators in candidate,8 indicators were finally suggested as the key indicators for assessing river health,which were:coverage rate of riparian vegetation,reserved rate of wetland,river continuity,the changing rate of water flow,the ratio of reaching water quality standard,fish index of biotic integrity,the ratio of water utilization and land use.

  3. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  4. Prioritizing Public- Private Partnership Models for Public Hospitals of Iran Based on Performance Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Asghari Jaafarabadi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The present study was conducted to scrutinize Public- Private Partnership (PPP models in public hospitals of different countries based on performance indicators in order to se-lect appropriated models for Iran hospitals.Methods: In this mixed (quantitative-qualitative study, systematic review and expert panel hasbeen done to identify varied models of PPP as well as performance indicators. In the second stepwe prioritized performance indicator and PPP models based on selected performance indicatorsby Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP technique. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 andExpert Choice11 software’s.Results: In quality – effectiveness area, indicators like the rate of hospital infections(100%, hospital accidents prevalence rate (73%, pure rate of hospital mortality (63%, patientsatisfaction percentage (53%, in accessibility equity area indicators such as average inpatientwaiting time (100% and average outpatient waiting time (74%, and in financial – efficiency area,indicators including average length of stay (100%, bed occupation ratio (99%, specific incometo total cost ratio (97% have been chosen to be the most key performance indicators. In the prioritizationof the PPP models clinical outsourcing, management, privatization, BOO (build, own,operate and non-clinical outsourcing models, achieved high priority for various performance indicatorareas.Conclusion: This study had been provided the most common PPP options in the field of public hospitals and had gathered suitable evidences from experts for choosing appropriate PPP option for public hospitals. Effect of private sector presence in public hospital performance, based on which PPP options undertaken, will be different.

  5. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  6. Cross-country Analysis of ICT and Education Indicators: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, Ahmad R.

    2017-03-01

    This paper explores the relationship between world ICT and education indicators by using the latest available data from World Bank and UNESCO in range of 2011-2014 with the help of different exploratory methods such as principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA), cluster analysis, and ordinary least square (OLS) regression. After dealing with all missing values, 119 countries were included in the final dataset. The findings show that most ICT and education indicators are highly associated with income of the respective country and therefore confirm the existence of digital divide in ICT utilization and participation gap in education between rich and poor countries. It also indicates that digital divide and participation gap is highly associated with each other. Finally, the findings also confirm reverse causality in ICT and education; higher participation rate in education increases technology utilization, which in turn helps promote better outcomes of education.

  7. Towards a cost-effectiveness analysis of the measurement of biodiversity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Targetti, Stefano; Viaggi, Davide; Cuming, David

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive quantification of biodiversity in farming systems would require a very significant amount of work (and funds) even for a small area. Therefore, biodiversity indicators are needed to solve the problem of the measurement feasibility. Even though the issue of cost and effectiveness is central for the evaluation of the indicators, only the latter is discussed in detail in the scientific literature. This work presents a cost analysis based on the direct gathering of records from a ...

  8. An Analysis of Gap in TQM Indicators in Health Care Institutions (Case: Isfahan Khorshid Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Sadr-Bafghi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Many organizations, especially, service organizations, relative to their goals and mission, have a special view towards quality phenomena and its management and are turning to approaches such as TQM to help manage their business. This study examined the TQM indicators gap in Isfahan Khorshid hospital. As fuzzy set theory is better than the logical theory for estimating the linguistic factors, this paper tries to apply fuzzy approach to quality management in hospitals and analyzes the gap between personnel expectations and perception. Methods: This paper analyzes medical total quality management in a case (Internal Section of Khorshid Hospital, based on gap analysis model and fuzzy logic. A questionnaire was therefore applied to measure expectations and perceptions of hospital personnel. Results: This study results show that on the whole, there is a significant difference between TQM expectations and perceptions among K`horshid hospital personnel. Conclusions: Spurred by impressive results in other industries, this compelling and logical approach has begun to penetrate the thinking of health care accrediting agencies, business coalitions, private foundations and leading health care organizations. However, before making a commitment to TQM, hospital decision makers should thoroughly understand what it is they are committing to, and solve the main barriers such as the conflict between hospital management philosophies and TQM philosophies.

  9. Analysis of the Diffusion Process by pH Indicator in Microfluidic Chips for Liposome Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bottaro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the development of nano- and micro-particles has attracted considerable interest from researchers and enterprises, because of the potential utility of such particles as drug delivery vehicles. Amongst the different techniques employed for the production of nanoparticles, microfluidic-based methods have proven to be the most effective for controlling particle size and dispersity, and for achieving high encapsulation efficiency of bioactive compounds. In this study, we specifically focus on the production of liposomes, spherical vesicles formed by a lipid bilayer encapsulating an aqueous core. The formation of liposomes in microfluidic devices is often governed by diffusive mass transfer of chemical species at the liquid interface between a solvent (i.e., alcohol and a non-solvent (i.e., water. In this work, we developed a new approach for the analysis of mixing processes within microfluidic devices. The method relies on the use of a pH indicator, and we demonstrate its utility by characterizing the transfer of ethanol and water within two different microfluidic architectures. Our approach represents an effective route to experimentally characterize diffusion and advection processes governing the formation of vesicular/micellar systems in microfluidics, and can also be employed to validate the results of numerical modelling.

  10. Analysis of flow signatures and catchment similarity indices for catchment classification in Yesilirmak Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyugur, Batuhan; Yilmaz, Koray K.

    2017-04-01

    Catchment classification schemes aim to identify groups of hydrologically similar catchments to enable a mapping between catchment physical characteristics and hydro-climatic conditions with the catchment functioning. This mapping, together with the quantified uncertainties, potentially facilitates improved process understanding, transfer of this understanding to ungauged catchments, model parameter regionalization and hence improve operational applications and watershed management. Although many studies focusing on the topic of catchment classification exist in the literature, there is yet no general consensus on the number and type of similarity metrics that should be included in such analysis. The aim of this study is to first carefully derive hydrologically relevant similarity metrics from catchment physical (elevation, area, slope, geology, soils, land use etc.), climatic (seasonality, temperature, aridity index etc.) and hydrologic response characteristics (flow signatures) and then utilize Affinity Propagation clustering algorithm to determine the optimal number of groupings based on individual as well as a combination of these similarity metrics. The study area is comprised of 24 sub-catchments located in the Yesilirmak Basin, Turkey, where daily streamflow and meteorological variables are available. The metrics that are based on flow signatures summarize a number of behavioral functions of the watershed system including those derived from flow duration curve (overall water balance, vertical redistribution) as well as temporal redistribution of flow (seasonality etc.). Our initial results indicated that inclusion of information on geology and seasonality (climate and flow) appears to be promising in delineating the hydrologic functioning of the catchments.

  11. A novel PPGA-based clustering analysis method for business cycle indicator selection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dabin ZHANG; Lean YU; Shouyang WANG; Yingwen SONG

    2009-01-01

    A new clustering analysis method based on the pseudo parallel genetic algorithm (PPGA) is proposed for business cycle indicator selection. In the proposed method,the category of each indicator is coded by real numbers,and some illegal chromosomes are repaired by the identi-fication arid restoration of empty class. Two mutation op-erators, namely the discrete random mutation operator andthe optimal direction mutation operator, are designed to bal-ance the local convergence speed and the global convergence performance, which are then combined with migration strat-egy and insertion strategy. For the purpose of verification and illustration, the proposed method is compared with the K-means clustering algorithm and the standard genetic algo-rithms via a numerical simulation experiment. The experi-mental result shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the new PPGA-based clustering analysis algorithm. Meanwhile,the proposed clustering analysis algorithm is also applied to select the business cycle indicators to examine the status of the macro economy. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively and correctly select some leading indicators, coincident indicators, and lagging indi-cators to reflect the business cycle, which is extremely op-erational for some macro economy administrative managers and business decision-makers.

  12. Use of technical analysis indicators at trading shares of steel companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zuzik

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available When trading on capital markets, used are multitude of methods. The intention set out in the present paper is to analyse probability of profit of the businessman using selected technical analysis indicators whilst trading with shares of the globally largest steel companies. Selected for analysing were 21 steel companies, and selected as the technical analysis tool was the relative strength index (RSI indicator. Analysed have been the period of one year commencing in May 2012 and ending in May 2013, based on daily closing prices of the shares of steel companies.

  13. A stochastic model for the indicated pressure process and the dynamics of the internal combustion engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rizzoni, G. (Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (USA). Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science)

    1989-08-01

    In-cylinder gas pressure has long been recognized as a fundamental measure of performance in the internal combustion engine. Among the issues that have been the subject of research in recent years is the study of the effects cyclic combustion variability has on the cycle-to-cycle and cylinder-to-cylinder fluctuations in combustion pressures. Some of the research problems pertaining to cyclic combustion variability are to reformulate from a perspective markedly different from the fluid dynamic and thermodynamic models which traditionally characterize this research: a system viewpoint is embraced to construct a stochastic model for the indicated pressure process and the dynamics of the internal combustion engine. First a deterministic model for the dynamics of the engine is described; then a stochastic model is proposed for the cylinder pressure process. The deterministic model and the stochastic representation are then tied together in a Kalman filter model. Experimental results are discussed to validate the models.

  14. Bioluminescent Indicator for Highly Sensitive Analysis of Estrogenic Activity in a Cell-Based Format.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takenouchi, Osamu; Kanno, Akira; Takakura, Hideo; Hattori, Mitsuru; Ozawa, Takeaki

    2016-11-16

    Estrogens regulate different physiological systems with wide ranges of concentrations. The rapid analysis of estrogens is crucially important for drug discovery and medical diagnosis, but quantitation of nanomolar estrogens in live cells persists as an important challenge. We herein describe a bioluminescent indicator used to detect low concentrations of estrogens quantitatively with a high signal-to-background ratio. The indicator comprises a ligand-binding domain of an estrogen receptor connected with its binding peptide, which is sandwiched between split fragments of a luciferase mutant. Results show that the indicator recovered its bioluminescence upon binding to 17β-estradiol at concentrations higher than 1.0 × 10(-10) M. The indicator was reactive to agonists but did not respond to antagonists. The indicator is expected to be applicable for rapid screening estrogenic compounds and inhibitors, facilitating the discovery of drug candidates in a high-throughput manner.

  15. Analysis of Geosynchronous Satellite-air Bistatic SAR Clutter Characteristics from the Point of View of Ground Moving Target Indication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Dan-dan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Under the geometry of geosynchronous satellite-air bistatic SAR where the geosynchronous satellite is the transmitter and aerostat is the receiver, in order to suppress clutter and detect slowly moving target using Space Time Adaptive Processing (STAP, it is necessary to analyze the clutter characteristics. From the point of view of ground moving target indication, the theory model of the clutter characteristics under the geometry of geosynchronous satellite-space bistatic SAR is analyzed and established in this paper; especially, the range-dependence characteristics of the angle-Doppler curve of the clutter is analyzed. Finally, the simulation verifies correctness of the analysis. The theory model and the conclusion in this paper indicates the clutter characteristics of the new geosynchronous satellite-air bistatic SAR mode, and provide theory basis for the selection and research of ground moving target indication method under this mode.

  16. Holistic indices for productivity control assessment, applied to the comparative analysis of PID and fuzzy controllers within an Isasmelt furnace

    OpenAIRE

    Ojeda Sarmiento, Juan Manuel; Fuertes Armengol, José Mª; Griful Ponsati, Eulàlia

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to contribute to the analysis of control performance assessment in extractive metallurgy. Productivity-based indices are proposed in addition to current measuring techniques. Such criteria are employed to compare conventional PID and fuzzy-based controllers in copper smelting. This process is mathematically modeled in order to be simulated. The comparison confirms a better performance of the fuzzy controller in dealing with the molten bath temperature within an Isasmelt fur...

  17. Spatial analysis of climatic cycles of a detrital aquifer by mean of Indicator Kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Chica-Olmo, Mario

    2016-04-01

    In a previous work, spectral analysis was carried out to investigate the climate cycles in a detrital aquifer located in southern Spain. The Vega de Granada aquifer is located in an alluvial plain surrounded by mountains. The aquifer has a superposition of Quaternary sedimentary materials showing a broad range of permeabilities. This aquifer is the receptor of a drainage basin of 2900 km2 and has a surface of around 200 km2. Its alluvial sediments attain a thickness of 250 m in the middle. The sediment sizes are mainly gravel, sands, silts and clay, with frequent spatial changes. The transmissivity of the range from 40000 m2/day to 100 m2/day and the effective porosity ranging between 1% and 10%. The main inputs into the aquifer come from the infiltration of surface runoff and the infiltration of rainfall water. More than 50 piezometric data series were studied with monthly temporal unit. The studied period has a span of more than 30 years. The main climatic cycles are annual, NAO, ENSO and semiannual. For this study, confidence levels of <90%, 90%, 95%, and 99% were established. The spatial distribution in the aquifer of climate cycles and their confidence levels were studied by mean Indicator Kriging. This methodology is based on geostatistical non-parametric methods. For this purpose, the confidence levels were codified in indicator variables. Overall, eleven experimental variograms were calculated and it fitted to a spherical model. In this sense, the spatial behavior of the climate cycles is quite similar in all cases. The estimation results are presented as binary maps that show areas where every cycle appears with a maximum spatial probability. Basically, the interpretation of these maps indicates a close connection to main recharge areas of the aquifer. On the other hand, the changes in permeability in the aquifer are considerable, which may explain in some cases the spatial variations in the spectra calculated. Acknowledgments: This research has been

  18. Dominant Indicators of Bank Crises: Comparative Analysis for States with Different Levels of Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozlov Vladislav I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to identification of common and distinctive regularities of development of banking systems with different levels of development of economy through study of the most important macro-economic and financial indicators. The article uses instruments of the applied statistics. The study is based on comparison of mean values of indicators in two groups of countries (countries with a high level of income and countries with a medium level of income, each of which is divided into two sub-groups based on whether there was banking crisis in 2008 or not. In the result of the study the article shows that there are both common and distinctive features of development of banking systems of countries with different levels of economic development. Thus, a typical scenario, characteristic for countries with developed economy that had banking crisis in 2008, includes availability of a relatively large-scale crediting of the economy under conditions of relatively low rates of economic growth and close connections of the national banking systems with banking systems of other countries. Development of banking systems of developing countries during the pre-crisis period is characterised with the following specific features: relatively high rates of growth of scales of crediting of the economy and high rates of economic growth under conditions of use of significant volumes of resources, borrowed in financial markets, and close connection of the national banking systems with banking systems of other countries. The study allows a more efficient use of experience of states with developed economy, since the described results give a possibility to adjust experience of other states, taking into account characteristic features of banking systems of developing countries. Also the study identified states, experience of which should be studied. The conducted analysis of interrelations of indicators could be used for building models of assessment of

  19. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  20. Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Zayed, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...

  1. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-02-04

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS M&O 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3

  2. Analysis of performance indicators in municipal districts in southern Brazil with more than 100 thousand people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delci Grapégia Dal Vesco

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The theme for this study is focused on public choices theory, in order to detect differences in indicators of economic and financial performance, proposed by Brown (1993 in cities of southernBrazilwith more than 100.000 inhabitants. The theoretical framework includes the public choice theory first proposed by Buchanan and indicators of financial performance classified into: (1 revenue (2 expense, (3 operational structure and (4 debt structure. The theme is justified for the domain of scientific knowledge, with a view to choosing indicators and also the size of cities. We conducted an empirical study, with sectional view in the cities of southernBrazil. The methodology is characterized as descriptive, document and quantitative. The technique used was cluster analysis and linear regression. Among the results, it is emphasized that the analysis of Cluster results are consistent with the theory proposed by Brown (1993 indicating that there are limitations in interpreting the analyzes the financial condition of cities if not by comparisons with comparable cities. The distinction between sizes of cities brought reflections on the analysis of indicators. Future research should include other municipalities in other regions. It is also suggested to continue this research and develop a comparison between the Brazilian regions relating the results of Cluster (eigenvalues with cities above 100,000 inhabitants by means of regression.

  3. Evidence-Based Practice: Quality Indicator Analysis of Antecedent Exercise in Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasner, Melanie; Reid, Greg; MacDonald, Cathy

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the research was to conduct a quality indicator analysis of studies exploring the effects of antecedent exercise on self-stimulatory behaviors of individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Educational Resources Information Center (ERIC), Google Scholar, SPORTDiscus, PsychINFO, and PubMed/MedLine databases from 1980 to October…

  4. Rural Development Alternative Analysis Through the Use of Discriminant Function and Socioeconomic Indicator Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Y. N.; Cleland, C. L.

    One approach to the use of socioeconomic indicators for analyzing rural development alternative strategies is presented in this paper. The underlying assumptions of such an analysis are discussed. Necessary analytic information include (1) data on rural opinions about each facet of the socioeconomic environment and selected socioeconomic…

  5. Linkages between biodiversity loss and human health: a global indicator analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, M.M.T.E.; Martens, P.; Groot, de R.S.

    2004-01-01

    The association between health and biodiversity loss was explored by means of regression analysis on a global scale, with control for confounding by socio-economic developments. For this we selected indicators of human health (life expectancy, disability adjusted life expectancy, infant mortality

  6. Analysis and Identification of Acid-Base Indicator Dyes by Thin-Layer Chromatography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) is a very simple and effective technique that is used by chemists by different purposes, including the monitoring of the progress of a reaction. TLC can also be easily used for the analysis and identification of various acid-base indicator dyes.

  7. A critical cluster analysis of 44 indicators of author-level performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    . Publication and citation data for 741 researchers across Astronomy, Environmental Science, Philosophy and Public Health was collected in Web of Science (WoS). Forty-four indicators of individual performance were computed using the data. A two-step cluster analysis using IBM SPSS version 22 was performed...

  8. Assessing environmental performance by combining life cycle assessment, multi-criteria analysis and environmental performance indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermann, B.G.; Kroeze, C.; Jawjit, W.

    2007-01-01

    We present a new analytical tool, called COMPLIMENT, which can be used to provide detailed information on the overall environmental impact of a business. COMPLIMENT integrates parts of tools such as life cycle assessment, multi-criteria analysis and environmental performance indicators. It avoids di

  9. Analysis and Identification of Acid-Base Indicator Dyes by Thin-Layer Chromatography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) is a very simple and effective technique that is used by chemists by different purposes, including the monitoring of the progress of a reaction. TLC can also be easily used for the analysis and identification of various acid-base indicator dyes.

  10. Application of Data Envelopment Analysis on the Indicators Contributing to Learning and Teaching Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoneri, Bernard; Lin, Tyrone T.; Lee, Chia-Chi; Huang, Shio-Ling

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to explore the quantitative relative efficiency of 18 classes of freshmen students studying a course of English conversation in a university of Taiwan from the academic year 2004-2006. A diagram of teaching performance improvement mechanism is designed to identify key performance indicators for…

  11. Relationships between Association of Research Libraries (ARL) Statistics and Bibliometric Indicators: A Principal Components Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrix, Dean

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzed 2005-2006 Web of Science bibliometric data from institutions belonging to the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) and corresponding ARL statistics to find any associations between indicators from the two data sets. Principal components analysis on 36 variables from 103 universities revealed obvious associations between…

  12. MEMBANGUN EARLY WARNING INDICATORS PERGERAKAN KURS DI INDONESIA: PENGEMBANGAN BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andra Devi Benazir

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis in 1997/1998 that was signed by depreciation rupiah almost destroyed the pillars of the economy. This exchange rate shock possibly will happen in the future like that happened in August 2007. At the same time, rupiah falled to the lowest level Rp. 9.410 per dollar (the exchange rate use the last month in August 2007. The exchange rate of its daily until above Rp 9.500 per dollar (Sadewa, 2007. Therefore, it was needed indicator of theearly detection with build leading indicators the movement of the exchange rate in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is building leading indicators the movement of the exchangerate in Indonesia. It could give the capacity forecasting of the Indonesian economy of the movement direction in a manner the aggregate with the Business Cycle Analysis method andIts development. Empirical results showed that is received by four leading indicators and four coincident indicators. The real export, the real import, foreign currency deposit, and forexbanks demand deposits in foreign currency became the moving indicator preceded the exchange rate. Whereas, there are four indicators to coincident was foreign assets, interbank call money rate 1 day, the German share index (DAX, and the USA share index (Nasdaq. This condition indicated that the exchange rate rupiah really was affected by the external factor.

  13. Big Data Analytics for Modelling and Forecasting of Geomagnetic Field Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, H. L.

    2016-12-01

    A massive amount of data are produced and stored in research areas of space weather and space climate. However, the value of a vast majority of the data acquired every day may not be effectively or efficiently exploited in our daily practice when we try to forecast solar wind parameters and geomagnetic field indices using these recorded measurements or digital signals, probably due to the challenges stemming from the dealing with big data which are characterized by the 4V futures: volume (a massively large amount of data), variety (a great number of different types of data), velocity (a requirement of quick processing of the data), and veracity (the trustworthiness and usability of the data). In order to obtain more reliable and accurate predictive models for geomagnetic field indices, it requires that models should be developed from the big data analytics perspective (or it at least benefits from such a perspective). This study proposes a few data-based modelling frameworks which aim to produce more efficient predictive models for space weather parameters forecasting by means of system identification and big data analytics. More specifically, it aims to build more reliable mathematical models that characterise the relationship between solar wind parameters and geomagnetic filed indices, for example the dependent relationship of Dst and Kp indices on a few solar wind parameters and magnetic field indices, namely, solar wind velocity (V), southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bs), solar wind rectified electric field (VBs), and dynamic flow pressure (P). Examples are provided to illustrate how the proposed modelling approaches are applied to Dst and Kp index prediction.

  14. An analysis of bibliometric indicators to JCR according to Benford's law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Alexandre Donizeti; Yanasse, Horacio Hideki; Soma, Nei Yoshihiro

    Journal Citation Reports (JCR) is the main source of bibliometric indicators known by the scientific community. This paper presents the results of a study of the distributions of the first and second significant digits according to Benford's law (BL) of the number of articles, citations, impact factors, half-life and immediacy index bibliometric indicators in journals indexed in the JCR Sciences and Social Sciences Editions from 2007 to 2014. We also performed the data analysis to country's origin and by journal's category, and we verified that the second digit has a better adherence to BL. The use of the second digit is important since it provides a more sound, complete and consistent analysis of the bibliometric indicators.

  15. A critical cluster analysis of 44 indicators of author-level performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores a 7-stage cluster methodology as a process to identify appropriate indicators for evaluation of individual researchers at a disciplinary and seniority level. Publication and citation data for 741 researchers from 4 disciplines was collected in Web of Science. Forty-four indica......This paper explores a 7-stage cluster methodology as a process to identify appropriate indicators for evaluation of individual researchers at a disciplinary and seniority level. Publication and citation data for 741 researchers from 4 disciplines was collected in Web of Science. Forty......-four indicators of individual researcher performance were computed using the data. The clustering solution was supported by continued reference to the researcher’s curriculum vitae, an effect analysis and a risk analysis. Disciplinary appropriate indicators were identified and used to divide the researchers...... into four groups; low, middle, high and extremely high performers. Seniority-specific indicators were not identified. The practical importance of the recommended disciplinary appropriate indicators is concerning. Our study revealed several critical concerns that should be investigated in the application...

  16. Life sciences domain analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freimuth, Robert R; Freund, Elaine T; Schick, Lisa; Sharma, Mukesh K; Stafford, Grace A; Suzek, Baris E; Hernandez, Joyce; Hipp, Jason; Kelley, Jenny M; Rokicki, Konrad; Pan, Sue; Buckler, Andrew; Stokes, Todd H; Fernandez, Anna; Fore, Ian; Buetow, Kenneth H; Klemm, Juli D

    2012-01-01

    Meaningful exchange of information is a fundamental challenge in collaborative biomedical research. To help address this, the authors developed the Life Sciences Domain Analysis Model (LS DAM), an information model that provides a framework for communication among domain experts and technical teams developing information systems to support biomedical research. The LS DAM is harmonized with the Biomedical Research Integrated Domain Group (BRIDG) model of protocol-driven clinical research. Together, these models can facilitate data exchange for translational research. The content of the LS DAM was driven by analysis of life sciences and translational research scenarios and the concepts in the model are derived from existing information models, reference models and data exchange formats. The model is represented in the Unified Modeling Language and uses ISO 21090 data types. The LS DAM v2.2.1 is comprised of 130 classes and covers several core areas including Experiment, Molecular Biology, Molecular Databases and Specimen. Nearly half of these classes originate from the BRIDG model, emphasizing the semantic harmonization between these models. Validation of the LS DAM against independently derived information models, research scenarios and reference databases supports its general applicability to represent life sciences research. The LS DAM provides unambiguous definitions for concepts required to describe life sciences research. The processes established to achieve consensus among domain experts will be applied in future iterations and may be broadly applicable to other standardization efforts. The LS DAM provides common semantics for life sciences research. Through harmonization with BRIDG, it promotes interoperability in translational science.

  17. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  18. Modeling of Percentage of Canopy in Merawu Catchment Derived From Various Vegetation Indices of Remotely Sensed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Sulistyo

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The research was aimed at studying Percentage of Canopy mapping derived from various vegetation indices of remotely-sensed data int Merawu Catchment. Methodology applied was by analyzing remote sensing data of Landsat 7 ETM+ image to obtain various vegetation indices for correlation analysis with Percentage of Canopy measured directly on the field (PTactual at 48 locations. These research used 11 (eleven vegetation indices of remotely-sensed data, namely ARVI, MSAVI, TVI, VIF, NDVI, TSAVI, SAVI, EVI, RVI, DVI and PVI. The analysis resulted models (PTmodel for Percentage of Canopy mapping. The vegetation indices selected are those having high coefficient of correlation (>=0.80 to PTactual. Percentage of Canopy maps were validated using 39 locations on the field to know their accuracies. Percentage of Canopy map (PTmodel is said to be accurate when its coefficient of correlation value to PTactual is high (>=0.80. The research result in Merawu Catchment showed that from 11 vegetation indices under studied, there were 6 vegetation indices resulted high accuracy of Percentage of Canopy maps (as shown in the value of coefficient of correlation as >=0.80, i.e. TVI, VIF, NDVI, TSAVI, RVI dan SAVI, while the rest, namely ARVI, PVI, DVI, EVI and MSAVI, have r values of < 0.80.

  19. Frailty Models in Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Wienke, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The concept of frailty offers a convenient way to introduce unobserved heterogeneity and associations into models for survival data. In its simplest form, frailty is an unobserved random proportionality factor that modifies the hazard function of an individual or a group of related individuals. "Frailty Models in Survival Analysis" presents a comprehensive overview of the fundamental approaches in the area of frailty models. The book extensively explores how univariate frailty models can represent unobserved heterogeneity. It also emphasizes correlated frailty models as extensions of

  20. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  1. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  2. A Generalized Model for Electrical Power Distribution Feeders’ Contributions to System Reliability Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganiyu A. Ajenikoko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliability indices are parametric quantities used to assess the performance levels of electrical power distribution systems. In this work, a generalized quadratic model is developed for electrical power distribution system contributions to system reliability indices using Ikeja, Port-Harcourt, Kaduna and Kano distribution system feeders as case studies. The mean System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI, System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI and Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI contributions to system reliability indices for Ikeja, Port-Harcourt, Kaduna and Kano distribution systems were 0.0033, 0.0026, 0.0033 and 0.0018 respectively due to the fact that a prolonged period of interruptions was recorded on most of the feeders attached to Port-Harcourt and Kano distribution systems making them to be less reliable compared to Ikeja and Kaduna distribution systems. The generalized Quadratic model forms a basis for a good design, planning and maintenance of distribution systems at large.

  3. Joint analysis of time-to-event and multiple binary indicators of latent classes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus

    2004-01-01

    Multiple categorical variables are commonly used in medical and epidemiological research to measure specific aspects of human health and functioning. To analyze such data, models have been developed considering these categorical variables as imperfect indicators of an individual's "true" status o...

  4. Socioeconomic deprivation and hospital length of stay: a new approach using area-based socioeconomic indicators in multilevel models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coevoet, Vincent; Fresson, Jeanne; Vieux, Rachel; Jay, Nicolas

    2013-06-01

    Socioeconomic deprivation is not easily measurable in hospital information systems. However, its identification is essential, as it is associated with morbidity and hospital length of stay (LOS). We aimed at studying the feasibility of using routinely recorded individual and area-based socioeconomic indicators, and assessing their relation with LOS. In a cross-sectional study we collected area-based socioeconomic deprivation indicators from French census databases and individual ones from the 2009 medical and administrative databases of a French referral maternity hospital. The principal outcome was the LOS for delivery. Individual level socioeconomic deprivation indicators included preferential insurance scheme (health insurance allocated to poor persons). Nine area-based socioeconomic deprivation indicators were aggregated at the census tract and commune levels. The relation between socioeconomic deprivation and LOS was studied using multilevel models. The well-documented relation between socioeconomic deprivation and preterm delivery was firstly studied in these models as a validation step. The linkage between aggregated and individual data was possible for the 3471 women included. The median LOS was 5 days. In multivariable analysis adjusted for age (P=0.02), twinning (P=0.0001), delivery mode (Punemployment rate (P=0.002) were associated with an increased LOS. Identifying deprived patients in hospital databases using routinely collected area-based indicators is feasible. The relation of these latter with LOS is consistent with previous studies. Further multicenter investigations are needed to confirm the interest of using such indicators for cost and morbidity predictions.

  5. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  6. Empirical analysis on the connection between power-law distributions and allometries for urban indicators

    CERN Document Server

    Alves, Luiz G A; Lenzi, Ervin K; Mendes, Renio S

    2014-01-01

    We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in [PLoS ONE 7, e40393 (2012)] for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present asymptotic power-law distributions, they can also display specific allometries among themselves. Here, we present an extensive characterization of this connection when considering all possible pairs of relationships from twelve urban indicators of Brazilian cities (such as child labour, illiteracy, income, sanitation and unemployment). Our analysis reveal that all our urban indicators are asymptotically distributed as power laws and that the proposed connection also holds for our data when the allometric relationship displays enough correlations. We have also found that not all allometric relationships are independent and that they can be understood as a consequence of the allometric relationship between the urban indicator and the population size. We further show that the residua...

  7. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  8. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  9. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  10. Mathematical modelling of transport of a non-diffusible indicator to estimate renal blood supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelfand, I.N.; Narkevich, V.Y.

    1985-01-01

    A new method is recommended to interpret the results in radionuclide studies of renal blood flow with the mathematical modelling of transport of a non-diffusible indicator in the blood vessels. The analytic proportions are ascertained between mean transit time of indicator, mean retention time (both at impulse influence and at occurence of any signal at the input) for different forms of transport function, and impulse-shaped retention function of the studied physiological system. By means of external measuring of radioactivity this allows to estimate the mean transit time of the indicator by the studied element of hemodynamics, an index, used in classically physiological studies. The recommended system of physiological indices describes the statistic and dynamic parameters of the vessel network in each kidney adequately. The use of this method showed its efficiency on principle in 7 healthy persons and in 4 patients with clinically manifest kidney diseases. (author).

  11. Model building techniques for analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Howard P.; McDaniel, Karen Lynn; Keener, Donald; Cordova, Theresa Elena; Henry, Ronald C.; Brooks, Sean; Martin, Wilbur D.

    2009-09-01

    The practice of mechanical engineering for product development has evolved into a complex activity that requires a team of specialists for success. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has product engineers, mechanical designers, design engineers, manufacturing engineers, mechanical analysts and experimentalists, qualification engineers, and others that contribute through product realization teams to develop new mechanical hardware. The goal of SNL's Design Group is to change product development by enabling design teams to collaborate within a virtual model-based environment whereby analysis is used to guide design decisions. Computer-aided design (CAD) models using PTC's Pro/ENGINEER software tools are heavily relied upon in the product definition stage of parts and assemblies at SNL. The three-dimensional CAD solid model acts as the design solid model that is filled with all of the detailed design definition needed to manufacture the parts. Analysis is an important part of the product development process. The CAD design solid model (DSM) is the foundation for the creation of the analysis solid model (ASM). Creating an ASM from the DSM currently is a time-consuming effort; the turnaround time for results of a design needs to be decreased to have an impact on the overall product development. This effort can be decreased immensely through simple Pro/ENGINEER modeling techniques that summarize to the method features are created in a part model. This document contains recommended modeling techniques that increase the efficiency of the creation of the ASM from the DSM.

  12. Regional flood susceptibility analysis in mountainous areas through the use of morphometric and land cover indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Rogelis

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A classification of susceptibility to flooding of 106 mountain watersheds was carried out in Bogotá (Colombia through the use of an index composed of a morphometric indicator and a land cover indicator. Susceptibility was considered to increase with flashiness and the possibility of debris flows. Morphological variables recognised in literature to significantly influence flashiness and occurrence of debris flows were used to construct the morphometric indicator by applying principal component analysis. Subsequently, this indicator was compared with the results of debris flow propagation to assess its capacity in indentifying the morphological conditions of a watershed that make it able to transport debris flows. Propagation of debris flows was carried out using the Modified Single Flow Direction algorithm, following identification of source areas by applying thresholds identified in the slope-area curve of the watersheds. Results show that the morphometric variables can be grouped in four categories: size, shape, hypsometry and energy, with energy being the component that best explains the capability of a watershed to transport debris flows. However, the morphometric indicator was found to not sufficiently explain the records of past floods in the study area. Combining the morphometric indicator with land cover indicators improved the agreement, showing that even if morphometric parameters identify a high disposition to the occurrence of debris flow, improving land cover can reduce the susceptibility. On the contrary, if good morphometric conditions are present but deterioration of the land cover in the watershed takes place then the susceptibility to debris flow events increases.

  13. Relationships between vegetation indices, radiation absorption, and net photosynthesis evaluated by a sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, Bhaskar J.

    1987-01-01

    A two-stream approximation to the radiative-transfer equation is used to calculate the vegetation indices (simple ratio and normalized difference), the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by the canopy, and the daily mean canopy net photosynthesis under clear-sky conditions. The model calculations are tested against field observations over wheat, cotton, corn, and soybean. The relationships between the vegetation indices and radiation absorption or net photosynthesis are generally found to be curvilinear, and changes in the soil reflectance affected these relationships. The curvilinearity of the relationship between normalized differences and PAR absorption decreases as the magnitude of soil reflectance increases. The vegetation indices might provide the fractional radiation absorption with some a priori knowledge about soil reflectance. The relationship between the vegetation indices and net photosynthesis must be distinguished for C3 and C4 crops. Effects of spatial heterogeneity are discussed.

  14. Relationships between vegetation indices, radiation absorption, and net photosynthesis evaluated by a sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, Bhaskar J.

    1987-01-01

    A two-stream approximation to the radiative-transfer equation is used to calculate the vegetation indices (simple ratio and normalized difference), the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by the canopy, and the daily mean canopy net photosynthesis under clear-sky conditions. The model calculations are tested against field observations over wheat, cotton, corn, and soybean. The relationships between the vegetation indices and radiation absorption or net photosynthesis are generally found to be curvilinear, and changes in the soil reflectance affected these relationships. The curvilinearity of the relationship between normalized differences and PAR absorption decreases as the magnitude of soil reflectance increases. The vegetation indices might provide the fractional radiation absorption with some a priori knowledge about soil reflectance. The relationship between the vegetation indices and net photosynthesis must be distinguished for C3 and C4 crops. Effects of spatial heterogeneity are discussed.

  15. Multiscale model of the human cardiovascular system: Description of heart failure and comparison of contractility indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosta, S; Negroni, J; Lascano, E; Dauby, P C

    2017-02-01

    A multiscale model of the cardiovascular system is presented. Hemodynamics is described by a lumped parameter model, while heart contraction is described at the cellular scale. An electrophysiological model and a mechanical model were coupled and adjusted so that the pressure and volume of both ventricles are linked to the force and length of a half-sarcomere. Particular attention was paid to the extreme values of the sarcomere length, which must keep physiological values. This model is able to reproduce healthy behavior, preload variations experiments, and ventricular failure. It also allows to compare the relevance of standard cardiac contractility indices. This study shows that the theoretical gold standard for assessing cardiac contractility, namely the end-systolic elastance, is actually load-dependent and therefore not a reliable index of cardiac contractility.

  16. Serial Analysis of Ten Precipitation-Based Indices by Land Use in Semiarid Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rodríguez-Moreno

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Open ecosystems in Mexico are under increasing pressure, due particularly to the expansion of cities and agricultural activities. These developments occur without integrating biodiversity concerns in land use planning and result in extensive fragmentation and transformation of the landscapes. The semiarid region of Mesa Central was characterized using ten precipitation-based indices. Using multivariate statistical and geostatistical spatial analysis techniques, the influence of those indices on five land use strata was explored. Land use analysis indicated that the maximum values of the five significant precipitation-based indices were found in Grasslands, Agricultural Use, and Shrubs; minimum values were characteristic of substrates Secondary Desert Vegetation and Other Use. Our results suggest that the greatest number of extreme precipitation events is likely to occur in open ecosystems and consequently will have a strong influence on landscaping and land use. The semivariogram analysis and geostatistical layers demand attention from research institutions, policy makers, researchers, and food producers to take the appropriate and coordinated actions to propose scenarios to deal with climate change. Perhaps this study can stimulate thought concerning research endeavours aimed at promoting initiatives for biodiversity conservation and planning programs for climate change mitigation.

  17. P-Wave Indices and Risk of Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jinli; Tse, Gary; Korantzopoulos, Panagiotis; Letsas, Konstantinos P; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Kamel, Hooman; Li, Guangping; Lip, Gregory Y H; Liu, Tong

    2017-08-01

    Atrial cardiomyopathy is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. P-wave terminal force in lead V1, P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area are electrocardiographic parameters that have been used to assess left atrial abnormalities related to developing atrial fibrillation. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine their values for predicting ischemic stroke risk. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched until December 2016 for studies that evaluated the association between P-wave indices and stroke risk. Both fixed- and random-effects models were used to calculate the overall effect estimates. Ten studies examining P-wave terminal force in lead V1, P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area were included. P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was found to be an independent predictor of stroke as both a continuous variable (odds ratio [OR] per 1 SD change, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.25; PP=0.01). P-wave duration was a significant predictor of incident ischemic stroke when analyzed as a categorical variable (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.37-2.52; PP=0.15). Maximum P-wave area also predicted the risk of incident ischemic stroke (OR per 1 SD change, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17). P-wave terminal force in lead V1, P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area are useful electrocardiographic markers that can be used to stratify the risk of incident ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Labor satisfaction as an indicator of public administration efficiency (sociological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina Valentinovna Leonidova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Labor satisfaction is an indicator of social wellbeing of the working population. The study of subjective perceptions of labor is an important indicator of public administration efficiency. The article contains the analysis of the population’s satisfaction with labor, particularly, with one of its structural components – labor conditions. It reveals the high correlation of these indicators with the satisfaction with everyday life and labor productivity. It determines the degree of employees’ satisfaction with working conditions in such areas as health and psychological atmosphere at the workplace, equipment capability and security. The study discloses employees’ estimates in socio-demographic and territorialdimensional aspects. The research demonstrates the interrelation between satisfaction with working environment and implementation of labor potential. The analysis indicates the importance of regular sociological research into the issues of satisfaction with various aspects of labor activity. The article indicates that for the country’s development it is necessary to take into account the labor satisfaction factor (in the narrow sense – working conditions while developing strategies and approaches for social-economic policy and defining the standards of social responsibility, primarily, of the state and employers

  19. APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION SPECTRA TO IDENTIFY WINES WITH PROTECTED GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATION (IGP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Khodasevich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The simulation is carried out of physical and chemical characteristics of the unblended varietal young Moldovan wine harvested in 2014 by the projection to latent structures of the transmission spectra in the range of 220–2500 nm. The achieved accuracy of the regression determining the parameters is appropriate for practical application purposes (from 5 % for alcohol strength to 30 % for tartaric acid content in red wines. The possibility is shown of solving the problem of verification of the protected geographical indication of wines (IGP – Indication Géographique Protégée by the multivariate analysis of broadband transmission spectra. 

  20. MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Bazhenova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices on Ukraine’s economy.

  1. Effects of various solar indices on accuracy of Earth’s thermospheric neutral density models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Four kinds of solar indices F10.7, E10.7, S10, Mg10 and four thermospheric neutral density models, i.e., CIRA72, DTM94, NRLMSISE00 and JB2006, are discussed. The CHAMP accelerometer data are used to calculate thermospheric total mass density. Based on the comparison of the model densities with CHAMP observations, the effects of various indices on the model accuracy are detected. It is found that under quiet and moderate solar conditions (F10.7<160), all of the models’ errors are reduced about 15% by using E10.7 instead of F10.7, while under active solar conditions (F10.7>200) the error’s standard deviation using E10.7 increases quickly and causes the models’ accuracy to fall down. With regard to S10, Mg10, their effects under quiet solar conditions are inconspicuous. If under active solar conditions, they can reduce the model error’s standard deviation by 5%-10%, implying that S10, Mg10 make the model error more stable. The JB2006 model, which was constructed by multi-solar-index (F10.7, S10, Mg10), is compared with DTM94 and NRLMSISE00 based on single-solar-index. It is found that JB2006’s accuracy is better than DTM94’s, and is close to NRLMSISE00 under the quiet solar condition. During the solar burst occurring on October 26, 2003, JB2006 has been in best agreement with CHAMP observations. All in all, the new indices may improve thermospheric density models’ accuracy under some special conditions. Concretely, E10.7 may reduce the average error of models and S10, Mg10 may prevent the error’s divergence.

  2. Environmental indicators for sustainability: a strategic analysis for the sugarcane ethanol context in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Priscila; Malheiros, Tadeu; Fernandes, Valdir; Sobral, Maria do Carmo

    2016-01-01

    Sugarcane ethanol is considered a renewable energy source and has emerged as a potential alternative to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, particularly in Brazil. However, there are some questions about how sustainable this energy source is, given the impacts from its production and use on a larger scale. To understand and achieve sustainability, it is essential to build tools that can assess an integrated conception and help decision-makers to establish public policies for a sustainable development. The indicators appear as such tools by capturing the complexity without reducing the significance of each system's component. The environmental indicators such as water quality indicator represent the level of water pollution, considering several parameters. The importance of the development, selection and validation of environmental indicators through a structured and cohesive process becomes essential. In the State of São Paulo, in Brazil, the environmental indicators, as well as policies based on them, are defined by the Environmental Secretariat (SMA/SP). This article presents an environmental indicator's evaluation method and reports based on the discussions about sustainability for the ethanol sugarcane context in the State of São Paulo. The method consists of interviews and an expert's workshop which pointed out a set of benchmarks for the evaluation of environmental indicators. The procedures were applied to an indicator used by the SMA/SP to illustrate the method's effectiveness. The results show that a strategic analysis framework can improve the environmental indicators required for the discussion on sustainability, providing a better guide to decision-makers.

  3. Groundwater Development Stress: Global-Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M; Clark, Brian R; Ely, David M; Faunt, Claudia C

    2017-08-15

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  4. Exact formulas for the variance of several balance indices under the Yule model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardona, Gabriel; Mir, Arnau; Rosselló, Francesc

    2013-12-01

    One of the main applications of balance indices is in tests of nullmodels of evolutionary processes. The knowledge of an exact formula for a statistic of a balance index, holding for any number n of leaves, is necessary in order to use this statistic in tests of this kind involving trees of any size. In this paper we obtain exact formulas for the variance under the Yule model of the Sackin, the Colless and the total cophenetic indices of binary rooted phylogenetic trees with n leaves.

  5. Combined statistical and spatially distributed hydrological model for evaluating future drought indices in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunwoo Kang

    2017-08-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.

  6. The importance of isomorphism for conclusions about homology: A Bayesian multilevel structural equation modeling approach with ordinal indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel eGuenole

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a Monte Carlo study examining the impact of assuming item isomorphism (i.e., equivalent construct meaning across levels of analysis on conclusions about homology (i.e., equivalent structural relations across levels of analysis under varying degrees of non-isomorphism in the context of ordinal indicator multilevel structural equation models (MSEMs. We focus on the condition where one or more loadings are higher on the between level than on the within level to show that while much past research on homology has ignored the issue of psychometric isomorphism, psychometric isomorphism is in fact critical to valid conclusions about homology. More specifically, when a measurement model with non-isomorphic items occupies an exogenous position in a multilevel structural model and the non-isomorphism of these items is not modeled, the within level exogenous latent variance is under-estimated leading to over-estimation of the within level structural coefficient, while the between level exogenous latent variance is overestimated leading to underestimation of the between structural coefficient. When a measurement model with non-isomorphic items occupies an endogenous position in a multilevel structural model and the non-isomorphism of these items is not modeled, the endogenous within level latent variance is under-estimated leading to under-estimation of the within level structural coefficient while the endogenous between level latent variance is over-estimated leading to over-estimation of the between level structural coefficient. The innovative aspect of this article is demonstrating that even minor violations of psychometric isomorphism render claims of homology untenable. We also show that posterior predictive p-values for ordinal indicator Bayesian MSEMs are insensitive to violations of isomorphism even when they lead to severely biased within and between level structural parameters. We highlight conditions where poor estimation of even

  7. The Importance of Isomorphism for Conclusions about Homology: A Bayesian Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling Approach with Ordinal Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenole, Nigel

    2016-01-01

    We describe a Monte Carlo study examining the impact of assuming item isomorphism (i.e., equivalent construct meaning across levels of analysis) on conclusions about homology (i.e., equivalent structural relations across levels of analysis) under varying degrees of non-isomorphism in the context of ordinal indicator multilevel structural equation models (MSEMs). We focus on the condition where one or more loadings are higher on the between level than on the within level to show that while much past research on homology has ignored the issue of psychometric isomorphism, psychometric isomorphism is in fact critical to valid conclusions about homology. More specifically, when a measurement model with non-isomorphic items occupies an exogenous position in a multilevel structural model and the non-isomorphism of these items is not modeled, the within level exogenous latent variance is under-estimated leading to over-estimation of the within level structural coefficient, while the between level exogenous latent variance is overestimated leading to underestimation of the between structural coefficient. When a measurement model with non-isomorphic items occupies an endogenous position in a multilevel structural model and the non-isomorphism of these items is not modeled, the endogenous within level latent variance is under-estimated leading to under-estimation of the within level structural coefficient while the endogenous between level latent variance is over-estimated leading to over-estimation of the between level structural coefficient. The innovative aspect of this article is demonstrating that even minor violations of psychometric isomorphism render claims of homology untenable. We also show that posterior predictive p-values for ordinal indicator Bayesian MSEMs are insensitive to violations of isomorphism even when they lead to severely biased within and between level structural parameters. We highlight conditions where poor estimation of even correctly specified

  8. Network Analysis of Publications on Topological Indices from the Web of Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodlaj, Jernej; Batagelj, Vladimir

    2014-08-01

    In this paper we analyze a collection of bibliographic networks, constructed from the data from the Web of Science on works (papers, books, etc.) on the topic of topological indices and on relating scientific fields. We present the general outlook and more specific findings about authors, works and journals, subtopics and keywords and also important relations between them based on scientometric approaches like the strongest and main citation paths, the main themes on citation path based on keywords, results of co-authorship analysis in form of the most prominent islands of citing authors, groups of collaborating authors, two-mode cores of authors and works. We investigate the nature of citing of authors, important journals and citing of works between them, journals preferred by authors and expose hierarchy of similar collaborating authors, based on keywords they use. We perform temporal analysis on one important journal as well. We give a comprehensive scientometric insight into the field of topological indices.

  9. Panel Analysis of Internet Booking of Travel and Holiday Accommodation Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksenija Dumičić

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article four development indicators have been carefully selected and their impact on the level of acceptance of the Internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation in selected European countries has been observed. The statistical panel analysis approach was used to determine the individual and the common impact of the development indicators. The analysis has shown that an individual’s wealth, the public expenditure on education, and the Internet penetration rate have a positive statistically significant impact on the level of acceptance of the Internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation whereas the share of individuals with low level Internet skills has a negative statistically significant impact. These results carry significant importance for economists, politicians and all other stakeholders responsible for tourism development in a country. The use of the unbalanced panel is the main limitation of the article.

  10. VSMP for Modeling the Biodegradability of Substituted Benzenes Based on Electrotopological State Indices for Atom Types

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Shu-Shen; YIN Da-Qiang; CUI Shi-Hai; WANG Lian-Sheng

    2005-01-01

    The electrotopological state (E-state) index was employed to characterize the structures of 51 substituted benzenes. Eleven E-state indices of the compounds were calculated by the computer program developed in our laboratory. The method for variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP) was used to select an optimal combination of the variables from 11 E-state descriptors. Then the optimal descriptors were employed to model the relationship between the relative biodegradability of the substituted benzenes and their molecular structures. A novel 5-descriptor linear model was developed and the model has a high quality with the correlation coefficient and the root mean square error in estimation step being 0.9378 and 0.35, respectively, and these in leave-one-out cross-validation procedure being 0.9210 and 0.39, respectively.

  11. Constructing core competency indicators for clinical teachers in Taiwan: a qualitative analysis and an analytic hierarchy process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ai-Tzu; Lin, Jou-Wei

    2014-04-11

    The objective of this study was to construct a framework of core competency indicators of medical doctors who teach in the clinical setting in Taiwan and to evaluate the relative importance of the indicators among these clinical teachers. The preliminary framework of the indicators was developed from an in-depth interview conducted with 12 clinical teachers who had previously been recognized and awarded for their teaching excellence in university hospitals. The framework was categorized into 4 dimensions: 1) Expertise (i.e., professional knowledge and skill); 2) Teaching Ability; 3) Attitudes and Traits; and 4) Beliefs and Values. These areas were further divided into 11 sub-dimensions and 40 indicators. Subsequently, a questionnaire built upon this qualitative analysis was distributed to another group of 17 clinical teachers. Saaty's eigenvector approach, or the so-called analytic hierarchy process (AHP), was applied to perform the pairwise comparisons between indicators and to determine the ranking and relative importance of the indicators. Fourteen questionnaires were deemed valid for AHP assessment due to completeness of data input. The relative contribution of the four main dimensions was 31% for Attitudes and Traits, 30% for Beliefs and Values, 22% for Expertise, and 17% for Teaching Ability. Specifically, 9 out of the 10 top-ranked indicators belonged to the "Attitudes and Traits" or "Beliefs and Values" dimensions, indicating that inner characteristics (i.e., attitudes, traits, beliefs, and values) were perceived as more important than surface ones (i.e., professional knowledge, skills, and teaching competency). We performed a qualitative analysis and developed a questionnaire based upon an interview with experienced clinical teachers in Taiwan, and used this tool to construct the key features for the role model. The application has also demonstrated the relative importance in the dimensions of the core competencies for clinical teachers in Taiwan.

  12. Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

  13. Taiwan's Information Security Policy Enhancement: an Analysis of Patent Indicators and Patent Documents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Nai-Wen; Liang-Shiuan, Jr.; Chen, Yi-Chang

    2007-12-01

    Information security policy in Taiwan stems the gap between expectation and reality. For this, the paper presents an analysis of patent indicators and patent document attempt to conclude the overview of the information security technology development. The paper also identifies the leading countries and cutting-edge areas with potential trends. Finally, several practicable and valuable strategies after this work are generalized to achieve the goals of Taiwan information security policy.

  14. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE DEGREE OF MARKET CONCENTRATION: COMPETITION INDICATORS

    OpenAIRE

    MIHAIL BUªU

    2012-01-01

    The activity of competition authorities often involves the necessity of analyzing the relevant market. A starting point of such an analysis should be the assessment of market concentration’s degree. Together with other information held by the competition authority, the degree of market concentration creates an overall image of the market. The economic theory indicates a direct connection between the degree of market concentration and companies’ performance on the market. Moreover, the competi...

  15. Multi-target QPDR classification model for human breast and colon cancer-related proteins using star graph topological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munteanu, Cristian Robert; Magalhães, Alexandre L; Uriarte, Eugenio; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2009-03-21

    The cancer diagnostic is a complex process and, sometimes, the specific markers can interfere or produce negative results. Thus, new simple and fast theoretical models are required. One option is the complex network graphs theory that permits us to describe any real system, from the small molecules to the complex genetic, neural or social networks by transforming real properties in topological indices. This work converts the protein primary structure data in specific Randic's star networks topological indices using the new sequence to star networks (S2SNet) application. A set of 1054 proteins were selected from previous works and contains proteins related or not with two types of cancer, human breast cancer (HBC) and human colon cancer (HCC). The general discriminant analysis method generates an input-coded multi-target classification model with the training/predicting set accuracies of 90.0% for the forward stepwise model type. In addition, a protein subset was modified by single amino acid mutations with higher log-odds PAM250 values and tested with the new classification if can be related with HBC or HCC. In conclusion, we shown that, using simple input data such is the primary protein sequence and the simples linear analysis, it is possible to obtain accurate classification models that can predict if a new protein related with two types of cancer. These results promote the use of the S2SNet in clinical proteomics.

  16. Improving the performance of high-energy physics analysis through bitmap indices

    CERN Document Server

    Stockinger, K; Hoschek, W; Schikuta, E

    2000-01-01

    Bitmap indices are popular multi-dimensional data structures for accessing read-mostly data such as data warehouse (DW) applications, decision support systems (DSS) and online analytical processing (OLAP). One of their main strengths is that they provide good performance characteristics for complex adhoc queries and an efficient combination of multiple index dimensions in one query. Considerable research work has been done in the area of finite (and low) attribute cardinalities. However, additional complexity is imposed on the design of bitmap indices for high cardinality or even non-discrete attributes, where different optimisation techniques than the ones proposed so far have to be applied. We discuss the design and implementation of bitmap indices for high-energy physics (HEP) analysis, where the potential search space consists of hundreds of independent dimensions. A single HEP query typically covers 10 to 100 dimensions out of the whole search space. In this context we evaluated two different bitmap enco...

  17. Bed utilization indices at a tertiary care hospital in Goa: an eight year trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, F S; Ferreira, A M; Kulkarni, M S; Motghare, D D

    2007-01-01

    A retrospective data analysis of records from medical records department of Goa Medical College Hospital was done to analyse the trends of various bed utilisation indices from 1999 - 2006. Average length of stay, bed occupancy rate, turnover interval and bed turnover ratio were the indices calculated. During the eight year period from 1999 to 2006, the average length of stay for the entire hospital registered a small decline from 6.23 to 5.51 days, the overall bed occupancy rate increased from 72.13% to 83.12% and the bed turnover interval declined from 2.41 days to 1.12 days. The Orthopaedics ward had the highest increase in bed occupancy and also fastest decline in turnover interval in 2006. Bed utilization indices are an objective measure of the efficiency of the hospital management system.

  18. Measurement of infrared refractive indices of organic and organophosphorous compounds for optical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkyn, Russell G.; Danby, Tyler O.; Birnbaum, Jerome L.; Taubman, Matthew S.; Bernacki, Bruce E.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Myers, Tanya L.

    2017-05-01

    The complex optical refractive index contains the optical constants, n(ῦ)and k(ῦ), which correspond to the dispersion and absorption of light within a medium, respectively. By obtaining the optical constants one can in principle model most optical phenomena in media and at interfaces including reflection, refraction and dispersion. We have developed improved protocols based on the use of multiple path lengths to determine the optical constants for dozens of liquids, including organic and organophosphorous compounds. Detailed description of the protocols to determine the infrared indices will be presented, along with preliminary results using the constants with their applications to optical modeling.

  19. Measurement of infrared refractive indices of organic and organophosphorous compounds for optical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonkyn, Russell G.; Danby, Tyler O.; Birnbaum, Jerome C.; Taubman, Matthew S.; Bernacki, Bruce E.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Myers, Tanya L.

    2017-05-03

    The complex optical refractive index contains the optical constants, n($\\tilde{u}$)and k($\\tilde{u}$), which correspond to the dispersion and absorption of light within a medium, respectively. By obtaining the optical constants one can in principle model most optical phenomena in media and at interfaces including reflection, refraction and dispersion. We have developed improved protocols based on the use of multiple path lengths to determine the optical constants for dozens of liquids, including organic and organophosphorous compounds. Detailed description of the protocols to determine the infrared indices will be presented, along with preliminary results using the constants with their applications to optical modeling.

  20. Correlation of basic oil quality indices and electrical properties of model vegetable oil systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevc, Tjaša; Cigić, Blaž; Vidrih, Rajko; Poklar Ulrih, Nataša; Šegatin, Nataša

    2013-11-27

    Model vegetable oil mixtures with significantly different basic oil quality indices (free fatty acid, iodine, and Totox values) were prepared by adding oleic acids, synthetic saturated triglycerides, or oxidized safflower oil ( Carthamus tinctorius ) to the oleic type of sunflower oil. Dielectric constants, dielectric loss factors, quality factors, and electrical conductivities of model lipids were determined at frequencies from 50 Hz to 2 MHz and at temperatures from 293.15 to 323.15 K. The dependence of these dielectric parameters on basic oil quality indices was investigated. Adding oleic acids to sunflower oil resulted in lower dielectric constants and conductivities and higher quality factors. Reduced iodine values resulted in increased dielectric constants and quality factors and decreased conductivities. Higher Totox values resulted in higher dielectric constants and conductivities at high frequencies and lower quality factors. Dielectric constants decreased linearly with temperature, whereas conductivities followed the Arrhenius law.

  1. Hydrodynamic evaluation of a hydraulic clarifier through hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Patiño

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hydrodynamic phenomena take place within water treatment plants associated with physical, operational and environmental factors which can affect the water quality. This study evaluated a hydraulic clarifier’s hydrodynamic pattern using sludge recirculation through continuous tracer test leading to determining hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models. The clarifier had dual flow with a predominantly complete mixture during the hours in which higher temperatures were reported for affluent water compared to those reported inside the reactor, causing the formation of density currents promoting mixing in the reactor and increased turbidity in the effluent. The hydraulic indicators and the Wolf-Resnick model had higher sensitivity to the influence of temperature on reactor hydrodynamics.

  2. Analytic network process model for sustainable lean and green manufacturing performance indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminuddin, Adam Shariff Adli; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Mohamed, Nik Mohd Zuki Nik

    2014-09-01

    Sustainable manufacturing is regarded as the most complex manufacturing paradigm to date as it holds the widest scope of requirements. In addition, its three major pillars of economic, environment and society though distinct, have some overlapping among each of its elements. Even though the concept of sustainability is not new, the development of the performance indicator still needs a lot of improvement due to its multifaceted nature, which requires integrated approach to solve the problem. This paper proposed the best combination of criteria en route a robust sustainable manufacturing performance indicator formation via Analytic Network Process (ANP). The integrated lean, green and sustainable ANP model can be used to comprehend the complex decision system of the sustainability assessment. The finding shows that green manufacturing is more sustainable than lean manufacturing. It also illustrates that procurement practice is the most important criteria in the sustainable manufacturing performance indicator.

  3. Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

  4. Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

  5. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose...... was comparable with universal screening by fasting glucose or a 1-hour 50-g glucose challenge test. Both screening and diagnostic testing could be avoided in two thirds of all pregnant women....

  6. Statistical analysis of energy indices of solar radiation (Based on the data of Tokmak Solar Power Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov M.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Average daily or monthly data of solar radiation are often used in statistical analysis and in development of mathematical models for predicting energy generation. However, this can have a negative impact on the accuracy of forecasting. The authors carried out the statistical analysis of solar radiation based on the data obtained from the Tokmak SPS of the Zaporizhia region, Ukraine during 2016. The data were collected with a 30-minute interval in measurement. The analysis indicates close values of winter and summer insulation indices (direct and scattered, where the difference is approximately double. The mathematical expectation of the power surges is close to zero, and their distribution has signs of symmetry. The results of actual data calculation indicate that values of the elementary power surges of the SPS are a bit higher than the normal distribution calculated. Thus, the actual distribution corresponds to the normal one in the parameter of symmetry, but does not correspond to the parameters of kurtosis. If the time range is doubled from 30 minutes to 1 hour, the range of power changes slightly increases. In addition, the analysis of meteorological data showed that the probability of a prolonged growth or decline in power is not high, i.e. a change in power as a random process can be considered close to the stationary one. The performed analysis estimates the power supply possibilities for the region’s consumers by the solar power plant, and creates a mathematical model for operation of the combined energy system that uses solar energy.

  7. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Dorte M; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Westergaard, Jes G; Ovesen, Per; Damm, Peter

    2003-11-01

    This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose tolerance test was routinely performed in women with risk indicators and offered to women without risk indicators as part of the study. Forty-four percent of the women underwent testing, 43% declined participation, 6% did not speak Danish, and 7% could not be contacted. By extrapolation of the results from tested women to the whole group in question, a 2.4% prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of the model was 80.6 (73.7-87.6) and 64.8 (63.5-66.1), respectively (95% CIs). Under ideal conditions, sensitivity of the model was comparable with universal screening by fasting glucose or a 1-hour 50-g glucose challenge test. Both screening and diagnostic testing could be avoided in two thirds of all pregnant women.

  8. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence analysis of pollen as an indicator for atmospheric pollution*1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepponi, G.; Lazzeri, P.; Coghe, N.; Bersani, M.; Gottardini, E.; Cristofolini, F.; Clauser, G.; Torboli, A.

    2004-08-01

    The viability of pollen is affected by environmental pollution and its use as a bio-indicator is proposed. Such effects can be observed and quantified by biological tests. However, a more accurate identification of the agents affecting the viability is required in order to validate the biological assay for environmental monitoring. The chemical analysis of pollen is meant to ascertain the existence of a correlation between its reduced biological functions and the presence of pollutants. Moreover, such biological systems act as accumulators and allow the detection and quantification of species present in the environment at low concentrations. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence analysis (TXRF) has been chosen for the investigation due to its high sensitivity, multielement capability and wide dynamic range. Corylus avellana L. (hazel) pollen has been collected in areas with different anthropic impact in the province of Trento, Italy. For the TXRF measurements, a liquid sample is needed, especially if a quantitative analysis is required. In the present work, the analysis after a microwave digestion has been compared with the analysis of a suspension of the pollen samples. In both cases, an internal standard has been used for the quantification. The concentrations of 17 elements ranging from Al to Pb have been determined in 13 samples. Analysis of the suspensions showed to be comparable to that of digested samples in terms of spectral quality, but the latter preparation method gave better reproducibility. Sub-ppm lowest limits of detection were obtained for iron and heavier elements detected.

  9. A consistent picture of the hydroclimatic response to global warming from multiple indices: Models and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Raffaele, F.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze trends of six daily precipitation-based and physically interconnected hydroclimatic indices in an ensemble of historical and 21st century climate projections under forcing from increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)8.5), along with gridded (land only) observations for the late decades of the twentieth century. The indices include metrics of intensity (SDII) and extremes (R95) of precipitation, dry (DSL), and wet spell length, the hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT), and a newly introduced index of precipitation area (PA). All the indices in both the 21st century and historical simulations provide a consistent picture of a predominant shift toward a hydroclimatic regime of more intense, shorter, less frequent, and less widespread precipitation events in response to GHG-induced global warming. The trends are larger and more spatially consistent over tropical than extratropical regions, pointing to the importance of tropical convection in regulating this response, and show substantial regional spatial variability. Observed trends in the indices analyzed are qualitatively and consistently in line with the simulated ones, at least at the global and full tropical scale, further supporting the robustness of the identified prevailing hydroclimatic responses. The HY-INT, PA, and R95 indices show the most consistent response to global warming, and thus offer the most promising tools for formal hydroclimatic model validation and detection/attribution studies. The physical mechanism underlying this response and some of the applications of our results are also discussed.

  10. Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

    2017-07-01

    Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

  11. Cost-effectiveness analysis of clinically indicated versus routine replacement of peripheral intravenous catheters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuffaha, Haitham W; Rickard, Claire M; Webster, Joan; Marsh, Nicole; Gordon, Louisa; Wallis, Marianne; Scuffham, Paul A

    2014-02-01

    Millions of peripheral intravenous catheters are used worldwide. The current guidelines recommend routine catheter replacement every 72-96 h. This practice requires increasing healthcare resource use. The clinically indicated catheter replacement strategy is proposed as an alternative. To assess the cost effectiveness of clinically indicated versus routine replacement of peripheral intravenous catheters. A cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia, was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial. Adult patients with an intravenous catheter of expected use for longer than 4 days were randomly assigned to receive either clinically indicated replacement or third-day routine replacement. The primary outcome was phlebitis during catheterization or within 48 h after catheter removal. Resource use data were prospectively collected and valued (2010 prices). The incremental net monetary benefit was calculated with uncertainty characterized using bootstrap simulations. Additionally, value of information (VOI) and value of implementation analyses were performed. The clinically indicated replacement strategy was associated with a cost saving per patient of AU$7.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.96-10.62) and a non-significant difference in the phlebitis rate of 0.41% (95% CI -1.33 to 2.15). The incremental net monetary benefit was AU$7.60 (95% CI 4.96-10.62). The expected VOI was zero, whereas the expected value of perfect implementation of the clinically indicated replacement strategy was approximately AU$5 million over 5 years. The clinically indicated catheter replacement strategy is cost saving compared with routine replacement. It is recommended that healthcare organizations consider changing to a policy whereby catheters are changed only if clinically indicated.

  12. Stochastic model updating using distance discrimination analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Deng Zhongmin; Bi Sifeng; Sez Atamturktur

    2014-01-01

    This manuscript presents a stochastic model updating method, taking both uncertainties in models and variability in testing into account. The updated finite element (FE) models obtained through the proposed technique can aid in the analysis and design of structural systems. The authors developed a stochastic model updating method integrating distance discrimination analysis (DDA) and advanced Monte Carlo (MC) technique to (1) enable more efficient MC by using a response surface model, (2) calibrate parameters with an iterative test-analysis correlation based upon DDA, and (3) utilize and compare different distance functions as correlation metrics. Using DDA, the influence of distance functions on model updating results is analyzed. The proposed sto-chastic method makes it possible to obtain a precise model updating outcome with acceptable cal-culation cost. The stochastic method is demonstrated on a helicopter case study updated using both Euclidian and Mahalanobis distance metrics. It is observed that the selected distance function influ-ences the iterative calibration process and thus, the calibration outcome, indicating that an integra-tion of different metrics might yield improved results.

  13. 30-Day Survival Probabilities as a Quality Indicator for Norwegian Hospitals: Data Management and Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Hassani

    Full Text Available The Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services (NOKC reports 30-day survival as a quality indicator for Norwegian hospitals. The indicators have been published annually since 2011 on the website of the Norwegian Directorate of Health (www.helsenorge.no, as part of the Norwegian Quality Indicator System authorized by the Ministry of Health. Openness regarding calculation of quality indicators is important, as it provides the opportunity to critically review and discuss the method. The purpose of this article is to describe the data collection, data pre-processing, and data analyses, as carried out by NOKC, for the calculation of 30-day risk-adjusted survival probability as a quality indicator.Three diagnosis-specific 30-day survival indicators (first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI, stroke and hip fracture are estimated based on all-cause deaths, occurring in-hospital or out-of-hospital, within 30 days counting from the first day of hospitalization. Furthermore, a hospital-wide (i.e. overall 30-day survival indicator is calculated. Patient administrative data from all Norwegian hospitals and information from the Norwegian Population Register are retrieved annually, and linked to datasets for previous years. The outcome (alive/death within 30 days is attributed to every hospital by the fraction of time spent in each hospital. A logistic regression followed by a hierarchical Bayesian analysis is used for the estimation of risk-adjusted survival probabilities. A multiple testing procedure with a false discovery rate of 5% is used to identify hospitals, hospital trusts and regional health authorities with significantly higher/lower survival than the reference. In addition, estimated risk-adjusted survival probabilities are published per hospital, hospital trust and regional health authority. The variation in risk-adjusted survival probabilities across hospitals for AMI shows a decreasing trend over time: estimated survival probabilities

  14. 30-Day Survival Probabilities as a Quality Indicator for Norwegian Hospitals: Data Management and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Sahar; Lindman, Anja Schou; Kristoffersen, Doris Tove; Tomic, Oliver; Helgeland, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services (NOKC) reports 30-day survival as a quality indicator for Norwegian hospitals. The indicators have been published annually since 2011 on the website of the Norwegian Directorate of Health (www.helsenorge.no), as part of the Norwegian Quality Indicator System authorized by the Ministry of Health. Openness regarding calculation of quality indicators is important, as it provides the opportunity to critically review and discuss the method. The purpose of this article is to describe the data collection, data pre-processing, and data analyses, as carried out by NOKC, for the calculation of 30-day risk-adjusted survival probability as a quality indicator. Three diagnosis-specific 30-day survival indicators (first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture) are estimated based on all-cause deaths, occurring in-hospital or out-of-hospital, within 30 days counting from the first day of hospitalization. Furthermore, a hospital-wide (i.e. overall) 30-day survival indicator is calculated. Patient administrative data from all Norwegian hospitals and information from the Norwegian Population Register are retrieved annually, and linked to datasets for previous years. The outcome (alive/death within 30 days) is attributed to every hospital by the fraction of time spent in each hospital. A logistic regression followed by a hierarchical Bayesian analysis is used for the estimation of risk-adjusted survival probabilities. A multiple testing procedure with a false discovery rate of 5% is used to identify hospitals, hospital trusts and regional health authorities with significantly higher/lower survival than the reference. In addition, estimated risk-adjusted survival probabilities are published per hospital, hospital trust and regional health authority. The variation in risk-adjusted survival probabilities across hospitals for AMI shows a decreasing trend over time: estimated survival probabilities for AMI in

  15. Health and health-related indicators in slum, rural, and urban communities: a comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blessing U. Mberu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is generally assumed that urban slum residents have worse health status when compared with other urban populations, but better health status than their rural counterparts. This belief/assumption is often because of their physical proximity and assumed better access to health care services in urban areas. However, a few recent studies have cast doubt on this belief. Whether slum dwellers are better off, similar to, or worse off as compared with rural and other urban populations remain poorly understood as indicators for slum dwellers are generally hidden in urban averages. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare health and health-related indicators among slum, rural, and other urban populations in four countries where specific efforts have been made to generate health indicators specific to slum populations. Design: We conducted a comparative analysis of health indicators among slums, non-slums, and all urban and rural populations as well as national averages in Bangladesh, Kenya, Egypt, and India. We triangulated data from demographic and health surveys, urban health surveys, and special cross-sectional slum surveys in these countries to assess differences in health indicators across the residential domains. We focused the comparisons on child health, maternal health, reproductive health, access to health services, and HIV/AIDS indicators. Within each country, we compared indicators for slums with non-slum, city/urban averages, rural, and national indicators. Between-country differences were also highlighted. Results: In all the countries, except India, slum children had much poorer health outcomes than children in all other residential domains, including those in rural areas. Childhood illnesses and malnutrition were higher among children living in slum communities compared to those living elsewhere. Although treatment seeking was better among slum children as compared with those in rural areas, this did not translate to

  16. The multivariate analysis of indications of rigid bronchoscopy in suspected foreign body aspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divarci, E; Toker, B; Dokumcu, Z; Musayev, A; Ozcan, C; Erdener, A

    2017-09-01

    Foreign body aspiration (FBA) could be a serious life-threatening condition in children. Patients usually underwent bronchoscopy with suspicious of FBA alone. In this study, we aimed to determine which patients need to go to bronchoscopy based on pre-operative findings. Retrospective analysis of patients underwent bronchoscopy between 1999 and 2015 was performed. Clinical symptoms, witnessed aspiration event (WAE), physical examination findings (PEFs) and radiological findings (RFs) were analyzed by multivariate analysis to evaluate the indications of bronchoscopy. 431 patients (266M, 165F) underwent bronchoscopy with a median age of 2 years (7 months-16 years). A foreign body was detected in 68% of the patients. Univariate analysis demonstrated that wheeze was the sole distinctive clinical symptom for detection of FBA (pMultivariate analysis was performed with considering the association between them. The rate of positive bronchoscopy was 91.3% in patients with positive WAE, PEFs and RFs together(84/92). In patients with a positive WAE alone who had not got PEFs and RFs, the rate of positive bronchoscopy was 34.2% (25/73). A foreign body was detected in 84% of the patients who had not got a WAE but positive PEFs and RFs together(21/25). Bronchial laceration was occurred in one patient during bronchoscopy. Pneumothorax was not seen in any of the other patients. The rate of mortality was 0.4% in the overall group (2 patients). The indications of bronchoscopy in suspected FBA are usually based on clinical suspicious. The definition of " suspicous" could be a WAE or positive PEFs and RFs. The association of these factors increase the rate of positive bronchoscopies. In the light of our study, the classical indication for suspected FBA is still valid as "suspicious requires bronchoscopy". Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling Drought Impact Occurrence Based on Climatological Drought Indices for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, J. H.; Kohn, I.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.

    2014-12-01

    ) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. A mean of 47.0% (22.4-71.6%) impact deviance is explained by the resulting models, highlighting the feasibility of using such statistical techniques and drought impact databases to model drought impact likelihood based on relatively easily calculated meteorological drought indices.

  18. Indications and limitations of three-dimensional models in cranio-maxillofacial surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santler, G; Kärcher, H; Ruda, C

    1998-02-01

    Anatomical, life-like, three-dimensional (3D) models have a definite place in cranio-maxillofacial surgery. Our experience with 541 computer tomography (CT)-based 3D models employed in aiding corrective surgery of tumours, dysgnathia, traumatology, alveolar atrophy, congenital malformation and asymmetrical malformations in our department is discussed. From July 1988 to February 1997, 3D models of 346 patients were used. Most of these were produced at our clinic. The indications, advantages and limitations of 3D-models were analysed retrospectively. In the case of congenital malformations (n = 60), models facilitated precise diagnosis of the skeletal deformity. Simulation surgery allowed prediction and solution of intraoperative problems prior to the actual patient operation. Size, shape and localization of defects caused by trauma (n = 64), osteoradionecrosis (n = 17) or osteomyelitis (n = 2) determined the choice of transplant donor site. In patients suffering from dysgnathia (n = 144), 3D models enabled exact positioning of the jaws. Precise planning could only be accomplished with the help of 3D models, especially for asymmetrical malformations (n = 12). In cases of severe atrophy of the alveolar crest (n = 45), exact measurement of the bone was possible and facilitated the decision as to whether dental implants, bone transplants or a combination of these were indicated. The positioning of transplants and implants was carried out in the ideal relation to the opposite jaw. In tumour patients (n = 186), it is not always possible to identify the tumour borders precisely on the CT scan or 3D model. Therefore, the defect was assumed to be bigger, a longer bridging plate constructed and this measurement corrected according to the intraoperative situation. The advantage of the 3D models consisted of an accurate representation of anatomical structures, bone or soft tissue. This allows precise preoperative diagnosis, operation planning and model operations. Due to this

  19. Dental indications for the instrumental functional analysis in additional consideration of health-economic aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willich, Stefan N.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Besides clinical and radiological examination instrumental functional analyses are performed as diagnostic procedures for craniomandibular dysfunctions. Instrumental functional analyses cause substantial costs and shows a considerable variability between individual dentist practices. Objectives: On the basis of published scientific evidence the validity of the instrumental functional analysis for the diagnosis of craniomandibular dysfunctions compared to clinical diagnostic procedures; the difference of the various forms of the instrumental functional analysis; the existence of a dependency on additional other factors and the need for further research are determined in this report. In addition, the cost effectiveness of the instrumental functional analysis is analysed in a health-policy context, and social, legal and ethical aspects are considered. Methods: A literature search is performed in over 27 databases and by hand. Relevant companies and institutions are contacted concerning unpublished studies. The inclusion criteria for publications are (i diagnostic studies with the indication “craniomandibular malfunction”, (ii a comparison between clinical and instrumental functional analysis, (iii publications since 1990, (iv publications in English or German. The identified literature is evaluated by two scientists regarding the relevance of content and methodical quality.Results: The systematic database search resulted in 962 hits. 187 medical and economic complete publications are evaluated. Since the evaluated studies are not relevant enough to answer the medical or health economic questions no study is included. Discussion: The inconsistent terminology concerning craniomandibular dysfunctions and instrumental functional analyses results in a broad literature search in databases and an extensive search by hand. Since no relevant results concerning the validity of the instrumental functional analysis in comparison to the clinical

  20. Dental indications for the instrumental functional analysis in additional consideration of health-economic aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinnemann, Peter; Stöber, Yvonne; Roll, Stephanie; Vauth, Christoph; Willich, Stefan N.; Greiner, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Background Besides clinical and radiological examination instrumental functional analyses are performed as diagnostic procedures for craniomandibular dysfunctions. Instrumental functional analyses cause substantial costs and shows a considerable variability between individual dentist practices. Objectives On the basis of published scientific evidence the validity of the instrumental functional analysis for the diagnosis of craniomandibular dysfunctions compared to clinical diagnostic procedures; the difference of the various forms of the instrumental functional analysis; the existence of a dependency on additional other factors and the need for further research are determined in this report. In addition, the cost effectiveness of the instrumental functional analysis is analysed in a health-policy context, and social, legal and ethical aspects are considered. Methods A literature search is performed in over 27 databases and by hand. Relevant companies and institutions are contacted concerning unpublished studies. The inclusion criteria for publications are (i) diagnostic studies with the indication “craniomandibular malfunction”, (ii) a comparison between clinical and instrumental functional analysis, (iii) publications since 1990, (iv) publications in English or German. The identified literature is evaluated by two scientists regarding the relevance of content and methodical quality. Results The systematic database search resulted in 962 hits. 187 medical and economic complete publications are evaluated. Since the evaluated studies are not relevant enough to answer the medical or health economic questions no study is included. Discussion The inconsistent terminology concerning craniomandibular dysfunctions and instrumental functional analyses results in a broad literature search in databases and an extensive search by hand. Since no relevant results concerning the validity of the instrumental functional analysis in comparison to the clinical functional analysis

  1. Indicators Non-Financial Performance Assessment: Content Analysis of Telecommunications Companies of Management Reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Belloli De Vargas

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, business activities adopt performance evaluation as a tool for the efficiency and effectiveness estimation. This article aims to identify the non-financial measures for performance evaluation disclosed by companies in the telecommunication sector listed on the BOVESPA. The use and disclosure of non-financial indicators emerged from the gap left by traditional accounting to explain special issues such as the difference between the book value and the market value of companies. The government regulates the telecommunications sector that also has to meet the appropriate corporative enforcement. The regulatory agencies exercise this control, on behalf of the public services granting carried out by private companies. The study selected the data samples from the telecommunications sector; fixed, and mobile telephony lists using the content analysis of the management annual reports published at the companies' sites, and interpreted using the descriptive statistical analysis. The content analyses find nonfinancial indicators in all reports. The results highlight human resources, followed by the environmental issues number of indicators disclosure. All analyzed companies use the services customer satisfaction and the number of complaints. The results difference maybe because of service and not industry sector sample selection as presented in previous studies.

  2. Aggregate eco-efficiency indices for New Zealand--a principal components analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jollands, Nigel; Lermit, Jonathan; Patterson, Murray

    2004-12-01

    Eco-efficiency has emerged as a management response to waste issues associated with current production processes. Despite the popularity of the term in both business and government circles, limited attention has been paid to measuring and reporting eco-efficiency to government policy makers. Aggregate measures of eco-efficiency are needed, to complement existing measures and to help highlight important patterns in eco-efficiency data. This paper aims to develop aggregate measures of eco-efficiency for use by policy makers. Specifically, this paper provides a unique analysis by applying principal components analysis (PCA) to eco-efficiency indicators in New Zealand. The study reveals that New Zealand's overall eco-efficiency improved for two out of the five aggregate measures over the period 1994/1995-1997/1998. The worsening of the other aggregate measures reflects, among other things, the relatively poor performance of the primary production and related processing sectors. These results show PCA is an effective approach for aggregating eco-efficiency indicators and assisting decision makers by reducing redundancy in an eco-efficiency indicators matrix.

  3. [Edwards syndrome--most frequent indications for genetic amniocentesis. Analysis of the last 5 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuchracki, Marek; Janiak, Justyna; Ziółkowska, Katarzyna; Sedziak, Anna; Opala, Tomasz

    2012-01-01

    Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) occurs in 1: 8000 live births and is closely related to the mother's age. Most of the embryos and fetuses with trisomy of 18 chromosome pair undergo natural abortion. Change in number and structure of chromosomes usually takes place spontaneously. However, the incidence of chromosome mutations increases with the presence of mutagenic factors. One of the chemical mutagenic factors is benzopyrene - present in cigarette smoke. Prenatal cytogenetic diagnostic is used for detecting diseases and clinical syndromes conditioned by chromosome aberrations. To this date the "golden standard" of this diagnostic is the assessment of the fetus karyotype by means of analysis of chromosome banding pattern from amniotic fluid-derived cells. The aim of the study was the analysis of indications for genetic amniocenteses carried out in the last 5 years and in case of which trisomy of chromosome 18 (Edwards syndrome) was diagnosed. The analysis covered 1593 results of fetus karyotypes obtained from Cytogenetic Laboratory of the Central Gynecological-Obstetric Clinical Hospital in Poznań over the last 5 years. The study procedure consisted in producing cell culture from amniotic fluid, appliance of appropriate color techniques and thorough microscopic analysis of chromosome banding pattern. As a result of the analysis it was discovered that in 1538 cases the karyotype was normal, and in 55 cases trisomy 18 was diagnosed, which constituted 3% of all cytogenetic tests. The highest number of trisomy 18 cases was noted in 2009 - 19 cases, which constitutes 5% of all tests. In 2010 and 2011 the results included respectively 2% and 3% of diagnosed trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome). In the last 5 years normal results for karyotypes constituted 87%, in 10% cases other aberrations were diagnosed through cystogenetic tests, whereas 3% of the results have shown trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome The most frequent indications for performing genetic amniocentesis, as a result of

  4. Model selection for amplitude analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Guegan, Baptiste; Stevens, Justin; Williams, Mike

    2015-01-01

    Model complexity in amplitude analyses is often a priori under-constrained since the underlying theory permits a large number of amplitudes to contribute to most physical processes. The use of an overly complex model results in reduced predictive power and worse resolution on unknown parameters of interest. Therefore, it is common to reduce the complexity by removing from consideration some subset of the allowed amplitudes. This paper studies a data-driven method for limiting model complexity through regularization during regression in the context of a multivariate (Dalitz-plot) analysis. The regularization technique applied greatly improves the performance. A method is also proposed for obtaining the significance of a resonance in a multivariate amplitude analysis.

  5. [Simulation of vegetation indices optimizing under retrieval of vegetation biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling; Liu, Xiang-Nan; Zhou, Bo-Tian; Liu, Chuan-Hao; Li, Lu-Feng

    2012-12-01

    This study analyzed the sensitivities of three vegetation biochemical parameters [chlorophyll content (Cab), leaf water content (Cw), and leaf area index (LAI)] to the changes of canopy reflectance, with the effects of each parameter on the wavelength regions of canopy reflectance considered, and selected three vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function. Then, the Cab, Cw, and LAI were estimated, based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and PROSPECT + SAIL model. The results showed that retrieval efficiency with vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function was better than that with all spectral reflectance. The correlation coefficients (R2) between the measured and estimated values of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 90.8%, 95.7%, and 99.7%, and the root mean square errors of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 4.73 microg x cm(-2), 0.001 g x cm(-2), and 0.08, respectively. It was suggested that to adopt vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function could effectively improve the efficiency and precision of the retrieval of biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model.

  6. Analysis of Land-Use Emergy Indicators Based on Urban Metabolism: A Case Study for Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Huang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The correlation of urban metabolism and changes in land use is an important issue in urban ecology, but recent research lacks consideration of the mechanisms and interactions between them. In this research, we did an emergy analysis of the flows of materials, energy, and capital within the socioeconomic system of Beijing. We calculated emergy-based evaluation indices of urban metabolism and land use change, to analyze the relationship between urban metabolism and land use by correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results indicate that the socio-economic activities on built-up land depend on local, non-renewable resource exploitation and external resource inputs. The emergy utilization efficiency of farmland has consistently decreased, but there remains significant utilization potential there. Urban development in Beijing relies on production activities on built-up land, which is subjected to great environmental pressure during extraction of material resources. To keep the economy developing effectively, we suggest that Beijing should commit to development of a circular economy, and change the land-use concept to “Smart Growth”. In this paper, we efficaciously solve the problem of conflicting measurement units, and avoid the disadvantages of subjective assignment. Consequently, this work provides not only a more scientific way to study land problems, but also provides a reliable reference for ecological construction and economic development in Beijing.

  7. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae reflecting environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matti Koivula

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in ‘natural’ conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as ‘indicators’ − a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1 Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2 Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3 Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and ‘ecosystem health’. (4 Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5 Carabids reflect variation in ‘natural’ conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6 Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7 Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because

  8. Empirical analysis on the connection between power-law distributions and allometries for urban indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, L. G. A.; Ribeiro, H. V.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.

    2014-09-01

    We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in Gomez-Lievano et al. (2012) for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present asymptotic power-law distributions, they can also display specific allometries among themselves. Here, we present an extensive characterization of this connection when considering all possible pairs of relationships from twelve urban indicators of Brazilian cities (such as child labor, illiteracy, income, sanitation and unemployment). Our analysis reveals that all our urban indicators are asymptotically distributed as power laws and that the proposed connection also holds for our data when the allometric relationship displays enough correlations. We have also found that not all allometric relationships are independent and that they can be understood as a consequence of the allometric relationship between the urban indicator and the population size. We further show that the residuals fluctuations surrounding the allometries are characterized by an almost constant variance and log-normal distributions.

  9. Use of Selection Indices Based on Multivariate Analysis for Improving Grain Yield in Rice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hossein SABOURI; Babak RABIEI; Maryam FAZLALIPOUR

    2008-01-01

    In order to study selection indices for improving rice grain yield, a cross was made between an Iranian traditional rice (Oryza sativa L.) variety, Tarommahalli and an improved indica rice variety, Khazar in 2006. The traits of the parents (30 plants), F1 (30 plants) and F2 generations (492 individuals) were evaluated at the Rice Research institute of Iran (RRII) during 2007. Heritabilities of the number of panicles per plant, plant height, days to heading and panicle exsertion were greater than that of grain yield. The selection indices were developed using the results of multivariate analysis. To evaluate selection strategies to maximize grain yield, 14 selection indices were calculated based on two methods (optimum and base) and combinations of 12 traits with various economic weights. Results of selection indices showed that selection for grain weight, number of panicles per plant and panicle length by using their phenotypic and/or genotypic direct effects (path coefficient) as economic weights should serve as an effective selection criterion for using either the optimum or base index.

  10. Accelerated life models modeling and statistical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bagdonavicius, Vilijandas

    2001-01-01

    Failure Time DistributionsIntroductionParametric Classes of Failure Time DistributionsAccelerated Life ModelsIntroductionGeneralized Sedyakin's ModelAccelerated Failure Time ModelProportional Hazards ModelGeneralized Proportional Hazards ModelsGeneralized Additive and Additive-Multiplicative Hazards ModelsChanging Shape and Scale ModelsGeneralizationsModels Including Switch-Up and Cycling EffectsHeredity HypothesisSummaryAccelerated Degradation ModelsIntroductionDegradation ModelsModeling the Influence of Explanatory Varia

  11. Indices of left ventricular systolic function derived by computer analysis of digitised M-mode echocardiograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bett, J H; Dryburgh, L G; Boyle, C M

    1985-04-01

    In order to determine the value of computer-assisted analysis of echocardiograms we digitised 980 M-mode studies in normal subjects and patients with pressure and volume overload and heart muscle disease to derive left ventricular dimensions (D), peak systolic rate of change of dimension, normalized for instantaneous dimension (dD/dt/D), mean velocity of circumferential fiber shortening (mean Vcf) and percentage fractional shortening (%FS). The systolic phase indices which, in these patients averaged greater than normal in those with aortic stenosis and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and lower than normal in those with aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis and dilated cardiomyopathy, were closely related to each other in all categories of patients. Measurement of % FS appears to describe left ventricular function as well as the more complex indices (mean Vcf, peak dD/dt/D).

  12. INDICATOR ANALYSIS IN THE PROCESS OF FINANCIAL SECURITY MANAGEMENT FOR THE WHOLESALE FOODSTUFF SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Balina

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Presented is the indicator analysis in the process of fi nancial security management for Poland’s wholesale foods sector. The study examined 160 wholesalers of foodstuff s, beverages and tobacco products (Polish commercial classifi - cations – PKD – from 46.31z to 46.39z, during the period 2008–2014. The study took advantage of corporate balance sheets, and profi ts and loss accounts of fi rms organized as limited liability entities and companies for scrutiny were chosen randomly. It was found that wholesaler liquidity diffi culty is a signal for other entities of fi nancial commercial stress which can consequently indicate diffi culty in payment for entrusted goods. The study confi rmed that the scrutinized companies have diffi culty in improving their liquidity and profi tability, potentially leading to bankruptcy as a result of negative opinions from potential investors. 

  13. Large-scale determinants of diversity across Spanish forest habitats: accounting for model uncertainty in compositional and structural indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin-Quller, E.; Torras, O.; Alberdi, I.; Solana, J.; Saura, S.

    2011-07-01

    An integral understanding of forest biodiversity requires the exploration of the many aspects it comprises and of the numerous potential determinants of their distribution. The landscape ecological approach provides a necessary complement to conventional local studies that focus on individual plots or forest ownerships. However, most previous landscape studies used equally-sized cells as units of analysis to identify the factors affecting forest biodiversity distribution. Stratification of the analysis by habitats with a relatively homogeneous forest composition might be more adequate to capture the underlying patterns associated to the formation and development of a particular ensemble of interacting forest species. Here we used a landscape perspective in order to improve our understanding on the influence of large-scale explanatory factors on forest biodiversity indicators in Spanish habitats, covering a wide latitudinal and attitudinal range. We considered six forest biodiversity indicators estimated from more than 30,000 field plots in the Spanish national forest inventory, distributed in 213 forest habitats over 16 Spanish provinces. We explored biodiversity response to various environmental (climate and topography) and landscape configuration (fragmentation and shape complexity) variables through multiple linear regression models (built and assessed through the Akaike Information Criterion). In particular, we took into account the inherent model uncertainty when dealing with a complex and large set of variables, and considered different plausible models and their probability of being the best candidate for the observed data. Our results showed that compositional indicators (species richness and diversity) were mostly explained by environmental factors. Models for structural indicators (standing deadwood and stand complexity) had the worst fits and selection uncertainties, but did show significant associations with some configuration metrics. In general

  14. Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Fink

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For nearly every major stock market there exist equity and implied volatility indices. These play important roles within finance: be it as a benchmark, a measure of general uncertainty or a way of investing or hedging. It is well known in the academic literature that correlations and higher moments between different indices tend to vary in time. However, to the best of our knowledge, no one has yet considered a global setup including both equity and implied volatility indices of various continents, and allowing for a changing dependence structure. We aim to close this gap by applying Markov-switching R-vine models to investigate the existence of different, global dependence regimes. In particular, we identify times of “normal” and “abnormal” states within a data set consisting of North-American, European and Asian indices. Our results confirm the existence of joint points in a time at which global regime switching between two different R-vine structures takes place.

  15. Estimating Irrigation Water Requirements using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Harriss, Robert; Harriss, Robert; Wells, Gordon; Glantz, Michael; Dukhovny, Victor A.; Orlovsky, Leah

    2007-01-01

    An inverse process approach using satellite-driven (MODIS) biophysical modeling was used to quantitatively assess water resource demand in semi-arid and arid agricultural lands by comparing the carbon and water flux modeled under both equilibrium (in balance with prevailing climate) and non-equilibrium (irrigated) conditions. Since satellite observations of irrigated areas show higher leaf area indices (LAI) than is supportable by local precipitation, we postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. For an observation year we used MODIS vegetation indices, local climate data, and the SiB2 photosynthesis-conductance model to examine the relationship between climate and the water stress function for a given grid-cell and observed leaf area. To estimate the minimum amount of supplemental water required for an observed cell, we added enough precipitation to the prevailing climatology at each time step to minimize the water stress function and bring the soil to field capacity. The experiment was conducted on irrigated lands on the U.S. Mexico border and Central Asia and compared to estimates of irrigation water used.

  16. Evaluating Fit Indices for Multivariate t-Based Structural Equation Modeling with Data Contamination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark H. C. Lai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In conventional structural equation modeling (SEM, with the presence of even a tiny amount of data contamination due to outliers or influential observations, normal-theory maximum likelihood (ML-Normal is not efficient and can be severely biased. The multivariate-t-based SEM, which recently got implemented in Mplus as an approach for mixture modeling, represents a robust estimation alternative to downweigh the impact of outliers and influential observations. To our knowledge, the use of maximum likelihood estimation with a multivariate-t model (ML-t to handle outliers has not been shown in SEM literature. In this paper we demonstrate the use of ML-t using the classic Holzinger and Swineford (1939 data set with a few observations modified as outliers or influential observations. A simulation study is then conducted to examine the performance of fit indices and information criteria under ML-Normal and ML-t in the presence of outliers. Results showed that whereas all fit indices got worse for ML-Normal with increasing amount of outliers and influential observations, their values were relatively stable with ML-t, and the use of information criteria was effective in selecting ML-normal without data contamination and selecting ML-t with data contamination, especially when the sample size was at least 200.

  17. Estimating Irrigation Water Requirements using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Harriss, Robert; Harriss, Robert; Wells, Gordon; Glantz, Michael; Dukhovny, Victor A.; Orlovsky, Leah

    2007-01-01

    An inverse process approach using satellite-driven (MODIS) biophysical modeling was used to quantitatively assess water resource demand in semi-arid and arid agricultural lands by comparing the carbon and water flux modeled under both equilibrium (in balance with prevailing climate) and non-equilibrium (irrigated) conditions. Since satellite observations of irrigated areas show higher leaf area indices (LAI) than is supportable by local precipitation, we postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. For an observation year we used MODIS vegetation indices, local climate data, and the SiB2 photosynthesis-conductance model to examine the relationship between climate and the water stress function for a given grid-cell and observed leaf area. To estimate the minimum amount of supplemental water required for an observed cell, we added enough precipitation to the prevailing climatology at each time step to minimize the water stress function and bring the soil to field capacity. The experiment was conducted on irrigated lands on the U.S. Mexico border and Central Asia and compared to estimates of irrigation water used.

  18. Spatial Models of Sewer Pipe Leakage Predict the Occurrence of Wastewater Indicators in Shallow Urban Groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Feraud, Marina; Lee, Do Gyun; Means, Jay C; Snyder, Shane A; Holden, Patricia A

    2017-02-07

    Twentieth century municipal wastewater infrastructure greatly improved U.S. urban public health and water quality. However, sewer pipes deteriorate, and their accumulated structural defects may release untreated wastewater to the environment via acute breaks or insidious exfiltration. Exfiltrated wastewater constitutes a loss of potentially reusable water and delivers a complex and variable mix of contaminants to urban shallow groundwater. Yet, predicting where deteriorated sewers impinge on shallow groundwater has been challenging. Here we develop and test a spatially explicit model of exfiltration probability based on pipe attributes and groundwater elevation without prior knowledge of exfiltrating defect locations. We find that models of exfiltration probability can predict the probable occurrence in underlying shallow groundwater of established wastewater indicators including the artificial sweetener acesulfame, tryptophan-like fluorescent dissolved organic matter, nitrate, and a stable isotope of water (δ(18)O). The strength of the association between exfiltration probability and indicators of wastewater increased when multiple pipe attributes, distance weighting, and groundwater flow direction were considered in the model. The results prove that available sanitary sewer databases and groundwater digital elevation data can be analyzed to predict where pipes are likely leaking and contaminating groundwater. Such understanding could direct sewer infrastructure reinvestment toward water resource protection.

  19. Proportion and risk indicators of nonadherence to antihypertensive therapy: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemstra M

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Mark Lemstra, M Wasem Alsabbagh Academic Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada Purpose: The World Health Organization (WHO concluded that poor adherence to treatment is the most important cause of uncontrolled high blood pressure, with approximately 75% of patients not achieving optimum blood pressure control. The WHO estimates that between 20% and 80% of patients receiving treatment for hypertension are adherent. As such, the first objective of our study was to quantify the proportion of nonadherence to antihypertensive therapy in real-world observational study settings. The second objective was to provide estimates of independent risk indicators associated with nonadherence to antihypertensive therapy. Materials and methods: We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of all studies published between database inception and December 31, 2011 that reviewed adherence, and risk indicators associated with nonadherence, to antihypertensive medications. Results: In the end, 26 studies met our inclusion and exclusion criteria and passed our methodological quality evaluation. Of the 26 studies, 48.5% (95% confidence interval 47.7%–49.2% of patients were adherent to antihypertensive medications at 1 year of follow-up. The associations between 114 variables and nonadherence to antihypertensive medications were reviewed. After meta-analysis, nine variables were associated with nonadherence to antihypertensive medications: diuretics in comparison to angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs and calcium channel blockers (CCBs, ACE inhibitors in comparison to ARBs, CCBs in comparison to ARBs, those with depression or using antidepressants, not having diabetes, lower income status, and minority cultural status. Conclusion: This study clarifies the extent of adherence along with determining nine independent risk indicators associated with

  20. Ecohydrologic Response of a Wetland Indicator Species to Climate Change and Streamflow Regulation: A Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. M.; Gorelick, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. Delta ecohydrology is expected to respond rapidly to upstream water demand and climate change, with earlier spring meltwater, decreased springtime peak flow, and a decline in springtime ice-jam flooding. We focus on changes in the population and distribution of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), an ecohydrologic indicator species. We present a conceptual model linking hydrology and muskrat ecology. Our conceptual model links seven modules representing (1) upstream water demand, (2) streamflow and snowmelt, (3) floods, (4) the water balance of floodplain lakes, (5) muskrat habitat suitability, (6) wetland vegetation, and (7) muskrat population dynamics predicted using an agent-based model. Our goal is to evaluate the effects of different climate change and upstream water demand scenarios on the abundance and distribution of Delta muskrat, from present-2100. Moving from the current conceptual model to a predictive quantitative model, we will rely on abundant existing data and Traditional Ecological Knowledge of muskrat and hydrology in the Delta.

  1. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2014-05-01

    We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were

  2. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2013-10-01

    Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different

  3. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Naumann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three

  4. Network analysis of a corpus of undeciphered Indus civilization inscriptions indicates syntactic organization

    CERN Document Server

    Sinha, Sitabhra; Pan, Raj Kumar; Wells, Bryan Kenneth

    2010-01-01

    Archaeological excavations in the sites of the Indus Valley civilization (2500-1900 BCE) in Pakistan and northwestern India have unearthed a large number of artifacts with inscriptions made up of hundreds of distinct signs. To date there is no generally accepted decipherment of these sign sequences and there have been suggestions that the signs could be non-linguistic. Here we apply complex network analysis techniques to a database of available Indus inscriptions, with the aim of detecting patterns indicative of syntactic organization. Our results show the presence of patterns, e.g., recursive structures in the segmentation trees of the sequences, that suggest the existence of a grammar underlying these inscriptions.

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of Remote Sensing Data: Comparing the Response of Vegetation Indices in Tropical Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonifaz, R.

    2005-12-01

    During the past two decades, satellite remote sensing systems possessing high temporal resolution, but typically moderate or coarse spatial resolution, have increasingly been used to characterize and map vegetation dynamics. Assessing the seasonality of tropical vegetation has, however, been especially challenging. Tropical regimes of temperature and precipitation are generally less variable and pronounced than those in other biomes, and variations in plant growth are often more subtle. Using samples from selected tropical land cover types (tropical rain forest, tropical grasses, tropical deciduous forest, mixed forest and agricultural areas), sensitivity analysis will be carried out comparing different 'greenness' indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI) derived from the MODIS/TERRA sensor. This analysis will potentially allow the selection of the best index to describe the particular behavior of tropical vegetation for further characterization of seasonal changes of such areas.

  6. COMPARABLE ANALYSIS REGARDING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON MOLDOVA’S WAY TOWARDS EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina GANCIUCOV

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As Moldova has the purpose to enter the European Union the actual situation in the country is analyzed in this article. The article gives the comparative analysis of the basic parameters of Moldova with the other European Union country-members to define the ways of development of the country in the given direction. Since 1994 relations between Moldova and the European Union have developed on an upward trajectory. The dialogue between the two sides officially started that year with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA, which entered into force in 1998 and provided the basis for cooperation with the EU in political, commercial, economic, legal, cultural fields. EU-Moldova relations have advanced to a higher level in 2009 when the country participated in the Eastern Partnership – an instrument of European policy that favored the signing on 29 May 2013 of the Association Agreement, the document which came to replace previous PCA and that is currently the most important element of the legal framework of Moldova-EU dialogue. But beyond the respective treaties signed, individually, between EU and states that intend to join the European community, there are a number of fundamental requirements3 (criteria, which condition the process of European integration of the state with declared intentions of accession. The aim of the research is to analyze to what extent Moldovan economy meet the requirements of economic alignment with EU standards, achieving a comparative analysis of the main relevant macroeconomic indicators. Research methodology. For analysis were used analysis-synthesis method, comparison method and others. Results of the analysis. Part of the criteria analyzed converge with EU requirements, while the most relevant indicators regarding standards of living show reserves show reserves for future improvement, such as the average wage, the lending rate, the exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu against the major international

  7. On the usage of geomagnetic indices for data selection in internal field modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kauristie, K.; Morschhauser, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2017-01-01

    conditions. This exercise reveals that Dst and its time derivative yield a similar picture as Kp on quiet conditions as determined with the conditions typically used in internal field modelling. Magnetic quiescense at high latitudes is typically searched with the help of Merging Electric Field (MEF...... and observed values at high latitudes. Recent initiatives to upgrade the AE-indices, either with a better coverage of observing stations and improved baseline corrections (the Super-MAG concept) or with higher accuracy in pinpointing substorm activity (the Midlatitude Positive Bay -index) will most likely...

  8. Sensitivity analysis of standardization procedures in drought indices to varied input data selections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Ren, Liliang; Hong, Yang; Zhu, Ye; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

    2016-07-01

    Reasonable input data selection is of great significance for accurate computation of drought indices. In this study, a comprehensive comparison is conducted on the sensitivity of two commonly used standardization procedures (SP) in drought indices to datasets, namely the probability distribution based SP and the self-calibrating Palmer SP. The standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) are selected as representatives of the two SPs, respectively. Using meteorological observations (1961-2012) in the Yellow River basin, 23 sub-datasets with a length of 30 years are firstly generated with the moving window method. Then we use the whole time series and 23 sub-datasets to compute two indices separately, and compare their spatiotemporal differences, as well as performances in capturing drought areas. Finally, a systematic investigation in term of changing climatic conditions and varied parameters in each SP is conducted. Results show that SPDI is less sensitive to data selection than SC-PDSI. SPDI series derived from different datasets are highly correlated, and consistent in drought area characterization. Sensitivity analysis shows that among the three parameters in the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, SPDI is most sensitive to changes in the scale parameter, followed by location and shape parameters. For SC-PDSI, its inconsistent behaviors among different datasets are primarily induced by the self-calibrated duration factors (p and q). In addition, it is found that the introduction of the self-calibrating procedure for duration factors further aggravates the dependence of drought index on input datasets compared with original empirical algorithm that Palmer uses, making SC-PDSI more sensitive to variations in data sample. This study clearly demonstrate the impacts of dataset selection on sensitivity of drought index computation, which has significant implications for proper usage of drought

  9. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  10. Economic modeling and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, J W

    1998-09-01

    The field of pharmacoeconomics (PE) faces serious concerns of research credibility and bias. The failure of researchers to reproduce similar results in similar settings, the inappropriate use of clinical data in economic models, the lack of transparency, and the inability of readers to make meaningful comparisons across published studies have greatly contributed to skepticism about the validity, reliability, and relevance of these studies to healthcare decision-makers. Using a case study in the field of lipid PE, two suggestions are presented for generally applicable reporting standards that will improve the credibility of PE. Health economists and researchers should be expected to provide either the software used to create their PE model or a multivariate sensitivity analysis of their PE model. Software distribution would allow other users to validate the assumptions and calculations of a particular model and apply it to their own circumstances. Multivariate sensitivity analysis can also be used to present results in a consistent and meaningful way that will facilitate comparisons across the PE literature. Using these methods, broader acceptance and application of PE results by policy-makers would become possible. To reduce the uncertainty about what is being accomplished with PE studies, it is recommended that these guidelines become requirements of both scientific journals and healthcare plan decision-makers. The standardization of economic modeling in this manner will increase the acceptability of pharmacoeconomics as a practical, real-world science.

  11. Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

  12. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  13. Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment Through the Indicators Extracted from Spatial Models: Case Study of Sugarcane Expansion Hotspots in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraz, R. P.; Simoes, M.; Dubreuil, V.

    2012-12-01

    The CanaSat project data from INPE (2010) has evidenced the trend of sugarcane expansion into savanna areas in the Midwest region of Brazil that has a great potential for the sugarcane development, in terms of topography and suitable soils, according to Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (EMBRAPA, 2009). However, in this region the climatic water availability has limitations, once the climate is marked by drought season with a strong water deficiency due to reduction of rainfall (SILVA et al. 2008). There may be serious risks to the sugarcane culture conducted in dryland crop system without any support from additional irrigation. Silva et al. (2008) state that, for the expansion of sugarcane cultivation in the Cerrado region will be necessary supplemental irrigation with 80 to 120 mm of water applied after cutting or planting. In the Brazilian Midwest the sugarcane agroindustry expansion is technically viable, but for the sustainable development of this activity it is necessary an adequate planning based on knowledge about water demand and availability. The aim of this study was to conduct an assessment of the potential water sustainability for the sugarcane cultivation in four microregions in Goiás State, Brazil, through the use of indicators proposed in Indicators System of Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment (Ferraz, 2012), that was thought to subsidize the public policies proposals and sectoral planning in strategic level by means of indicators that enable to perform diagnostic and prognostic analysis. These indicators are direct and relevant indexes obtained from data extracted through geoprocessing techniques from integration of many spatial models. The used indicators were: (i) Three indexes expressing the land favorability for sugarcane development conducted in dryland or irrigation system through the establishment of the ratio between the sugarcane suitable area for each different system and the total area of territorial unit of analysis (micro

  14. CAPITAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS OF THE MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC-CONSULTATIVE CENTERS IN VARNA (absolute indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubomira Koeva-Dimitrova

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The capital structure analysis of medical institutions is related to the assessment of their financial sustainability. The degree of their financial sustainability indicates the extent to which the medical institution is exposed to financial risk. This financial risk is related to the use of foreign capital (debts, loans, etc. and it is defined as the probability of insolvency and possible bankruptcy due to the existence of debts which could not be repaid at some point in the foreseeable future. Objective: To analyze the capital structure of the medical diagnostic-consultative centers in Varna city and on this basis to assess their long-term solvency and existence of financial risk. Materials and Methods: The materials for the study are the published annual financial statements (up to 05. 01. 2016 in the Commercial Register for the period from year 2008 to 2014 of all MDCCs (Medical Diagnostic Consultative centers, registered in Varna - 9 in total. In the study are applied logical-mathematical methods (comparison, grouping, detail, graphical method; financial and accounting analysis (balance sheet analysis; analysis of absolute ratios for financial sustainability. Results: Upon analysis of the capital structure of MDCC's are studied the main absolute indicators characterizing the conditions for financial sustainability and the existence of financial risk regarding the solvency. A table represents the overall assessment of the degree of financial sustainability of the companies according to the type and structure of the fulfilled criteria. It was ascertained that for year 2014, DCC 3, 4, 5 and 8 have met all the conditions and according to them these hospitals have very high financial sustainability. DCC 7 has an average financial sustainability, DCC 1 and 2 are in a financial crisis and DCC 6 and 9 are facing bankruptcy. It must be emphasized that nearly half of the studied health care organizations (DCC 1, 2, 6 and 9 need urgent intervention by

  15. Chemical and Physical Indicators in Drinking Water and Water Sources of Boroujerd Using Principal Components Analysis

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    Darabi , M. (MSC

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective: Quality control of drinking water is important for maintaining health and safety of consumers, and the first step is to study the water quality variables. This study aimed to evaluate the chemical and physical indicators, water quality variables and qualitative classification of drinking water stations and water sources in Boroujerd. Material and Methods: This descriptive-cross sectional study was conducted on 70 samples of drinking water and 10 samples from sources in 2011-2012. Nine Water quality variables were measured and coded using STATISTICA10 Software. Principal component analysis (PCA was performed for qualitative classification of water samples and determination of water quality variables. Results: Based on PCA, chemical variables such as fluoride, nitrate, total hardness and iron, and physical variables such as pH and TDS were paramount importance to water quality. According to T-test, the average concentration of fluoride and iron, and the turbidity in all samples were significantly less than the standard. But other variables were up to standard. Conclusion: For the large water quality data, the use of PCA to identify the main qualitative variables and to classify physical and chemical variables can be used as an effective way in water quality management. Keywords: Physical and Chemical Indicators, Drinking Water and Sources, Boroujerd, Principal Component Analysis

  16. Hospital stay as a proxy indicator for severe injury in earthquakes: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lu-Ping; Gerdin, Martin; Westman, Lina; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Wu, Qi; van den Oever, Barbara; Pan, Liang; Albela, Manuel; Chen, Gao; Zhang, De-Sheng; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; von Schreeb, Johan

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes are the most violent type of natural disasters and injuries are the dominant medical problem in the early phases after earthquakes. However, likely because of poor data availability, high-quality research on injuries after earthquakes is lacking. Length of hospital stay (LOS) has been validated as a proxy indicator for injury severity in high-income settings and could potentially be used in retrospective research of injuries after earthquakes. In this study, we assessed LOS as an adequate proxy indicator for severe injury in trauma survivors of an earthquake. A retrospective analysis was conducted using a database of 1,878 injured patients from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Our primary outcome was severe injury, defined as a composite measure of serious injury or resource use. Secondary outcomes were serious injury and resource use, analysed separately. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of LOS when used to identify severe injury. An 0.7earthquake survivors. However, LOS was found to be a proxy for major nonorthopaedic surgery and blood transfusion. These findings can be useful for retrospective research on earthquake-injured patients when detailed hospital records are not available.

  17. Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocco, V.; Joos, F.; Steinacher, M.; Frölicher, T. L.; Bopp, L.; Dunne, J.; Gehlen, M.; Heinze, C.; Orr, J.; Oschlies, A.; Schneider, B.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.

    2013-03-01

    Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100-600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1-0.2 mol m-3 in year 1990 to 0.2-0.4 mol m-3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

  18. [Neonatal bronchoscopy: a retrospective analysis of 67 cases and a review of their indications].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira-Santos, J A; Pereira-da-Silva, L; Clington, A; Serelha, M

    2004-01-01

    The availability of newer, more sophisticated and versatile bronchoscopes has expanded the spectrum and scope of the indications for bronchoscopy in the newborn infant both for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. The aim of this study was to carry out a retrospective analysis of the bronchoscopies performed on newborn infants, and to review the indications of this procedure in this age group. Sixty-three patients were submitted to 67 bronchoscopies in a period of 13 years, allowing the diagnosis of 45 anomalies and malformations of the tracheo-bronchial tree, and the performance of 24 bronchoalveolar lavages. In six cases, endoscopic removal of secretions helped to resolve resistant atelectasia, while in another case, with esophageal atresia, intra-operative definition of the fistula tract was possible through catheterisation of the fistula with the bronchoscope. The flexible bronchoscope was preferred for diagnosis by direct visualisation, and the rigid bronchoscope for some diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Stridor, unexplained cyanosis, hemoptysis, persistent or recurrent pulmonary images, difficulties in the intubation or extubation, and persistent disturbances in ventilation are among the main indications for bronchoscopy in the newborn infant. Bronchoscopy also allows the performance of subsidiary techniques, such as bronchoalveolar lavage, biopsy and laser therapy.

  19. Competitiveness of Serbia as a tourist destination: Analysis of selected key indicators

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    Popesku Jovan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the favourable competitiveness position, tourist destination has to offer quality experiences to tourists that can make the destination more attractive compared to other tourist destinations. The role of destination management is to exploit and develop existing resources by using clear and effective strategies for developing tourism products and creating additional value of tourist experience. The first step of analysis is to define destination competitiveness by using the indicators which will review and give the guidelines for improvement of competitive position. This paper discusses the tourist destinations' competitiveness and indicators for its measurement with a special reference to Serbia. Tourism development of Serbia is a big chance for overall economic development of the country. Current competitive position of Serbian tourism on international market is not satisfactory and this paper is trying to analyze and to point out the reasons of Serbia's tourism low competitiveness. Conclusions about the competitive positioning of Serbia as a tourist destination are drawn out firstly based on the relevant studies as well as on the Serbian Tourism Development Strategy. The results of Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (WEF TTCI reports for Serbia are also presented. Based on own research, this paper is also showing the results related to competitiveness of Serbia as a tourist destination in terms of two groups of indicators: natural, cultural and historical resources as well as destination management. According to the results, Serbia is more competitive in its natural, cultural and historical resources comparing to the role of destination management.

  20. A comparative multi-fleet analysis of socio-economic indicators for fishery management in SE Brazil

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    Gasalla, Maria A.; Rodrigues, Amanda R.; Duarte, Luis F. A.; Rashid Sumaila, U.

    2010-10-01

    One of the problems in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management is the lack of economic analyses which clearly define the performance of different fishing fleets within the system. We describe a comparative multi-fleet analysis of socio-economic indicators applicable for inclusion into ecosystem modeling and management. Based on a survey of different industrial fishing fleets in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, an inter-fleet comparison of economic attributes such as investment, fixed costs, effort, labour, sailing-related costs and profits, as well as a set of performance indicators, was conducted. Costs varied between fleets with fuel being the largest component on average, representing almost 37% of total costs. Similarities between fleets were driven by fuel costs, gross incomes and profits. In general, the best economic performance was associated with indicators of profitability and economic efficiency. Bottom-longliners and both surface and bottom-gillnet fleets showed the best economic performance per fishing trip due to their low percentage of variable costs. Purse-seiners and pink-shrimp trawlers had the lowest average rate of return and economic efficiency because of their high variable costs and relatively low catch values, and were considered economically net losers. However, in terms of jobs generated, purse-seiners had the greatest value creating about 49% of total jobs by all fleets. The sea-bob-shrimp fleet had the lowest crew size per vessel but generated the second highest total number of direct jobs (23%), with high economic viability as a whole. The inter-fleet cost and socio-economic performance analysis revealed that additional attention should be given to the poor profitability and overcapacity of fleets, fishing impacts, and open-access related issues, while social indicators may also be considered. This study provides information useful for evaluating different fisheries management scenarios and fleet size optimization in the South

  1. Simulation analysis of a production process with selected Six Sigma indicators

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    Michał Dobrzyński

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Computer technologies allow more and more to model as well as to perform simulation experiments of various processes. The simulation analysis provides a better understanding of the interdependencies between various stages of production processes. Methods: The results of simulation studies were presented, the aim of them was to show the opportunities of the analysis of the process according to the scenarios and variants developed in connection with the qualitative assessment process. The study was based on simulation models developed and programmed for the processing of parts in an automated production line. The results of the conducted simulation experiments were referred to the primary ratios of the system work like the use of machines and other means of production, capacity, number of defects, etc. The analysis of the process was expanded by the qualitative assessment, based on selected ratios used in Six Sigma methodology. Results: The significant influence of the identification of so-called “hidden factories” in the production process on the value of sigma level was observed. Conclusions: The application of Six Sigma methodology and its statistical methods has a significant importance in the estimation and improvement of processes. The identification and the choice of number of inspection points are important for the monitoring and evaluation of the whole process. The obtained results confirmed the earlier assumptions of great importance of "hidden factories". Not revealing them influences significantly the quality of a process.

  2. Beyond the model democracy: observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin

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    Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Hanasaki, Naota; Abe, Manabu; Masutomi, Yuji; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Nozawa, Toru

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America (SA) are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for SA, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterised the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in SA. Here we show that, whereas the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of SA, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Naive over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making. Reference: Shiogama, H. et al. Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin. Nature Communications 2:253 doi: 10.1038/ncomms1252 (2011).

  3. Recent Developments in Indicators and Models for Agri-environmental Assessment

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    Marta Carpani

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the years there has been a remarkable development in agricultural and environmental sciences and the public is growing increasingly concerned about the relations between agriculture and the environment, and about the sustainability of agricultural production systems in many parts of the world. Policy makers and the general public have asked the scientific community to make more information available, and a great wealth of research studies have been conducted and published in recent years. Many studies include in-depth analyses of agricultural systems based on simulation models for various purposes: understanding the mechanisms involved, comparing alternative scenarios and supporting and evaluating policy measures. Indicators are also frequently used to provide concise quantitative figures of various aspects (economic or productive performances, environmental impacts, etc. and to communicate them to a broad audience. This paper offers a survey of the recent literature dealing with agri-environmental issues and, in particular, of those references presenting the use of models and indicators for the assessment of agricultural systems and their effects on environmental compartments (water, soil, air, from multiple disciplinary perspectives, and at various scales. The references examined for this paper have been classified in order to group the papers according to various criteria, thus facilitating the identification of relevant references, and to compare their contents. The methodological approaches are analysed and compared in order to highlight the contributions of the scientific literature to the assessment of agro-ecosystems and agri-environmental policies.

  4. Integration of vegetation indices into a water balance model to estimate evapotranspiration of wheat and corn

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    F. L. M. Padilla

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation indices (VIs have been traditionally used for quantitative monitoring of vegetation. Remotely sensed radiometric measurements of visible and infrared solar energy, which is reflected or emitted by plant canopies, can be used to obtain rapid, non-destructive estimates of certain canopy attributes and parameters. One parameter of special interest for water management applications, is the crop coefficient employed by the FAO-56 model to derive actual crop evapotranspiration (ET. The aim of this study was to evaluate a methodology that combines the basal crop coefficient derived from VIs with a daily soil water balance in the root zone to estimate daily evapotranspiration rates for corn and wheat crops at field scale. The ability of the model to trace water stress in these crops was also assessed. Vegetation indices were first retrieved from field hand-held radiometer measurements and then from Landsat 5 and 7 satellite images. The results of the model were validated using two independent measurement systems for ET and regular soil moisture monitoring, in order to evaluate the behavior of the soil and atmosphere components of the model. ET estimates were compared with latent heat flux measured by an eddy covariance system and with weighing lysimeter measurements. Average overestimates of daily ET of 8 and 11% were obtained for corn and wheat, respectively, with good agreement between the estimated and measured root-zone water deficit for both crops when field radiometry was employed. Satellite remote-sensing inputs overestimated ET by 4 to 9%, showing a non-significant lost of accuracy when the satellite sensor data replaced the field radiometry data. The model was also used to monitor the water stress during the 2009 growing season, detecting several periods of water stress in both crops. Some of these stresses occurred during stages like grain filling, when the water stress is know to have a negative effect on yield. This fact could

  5. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

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    J. López

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS. Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

  6. Analysis of climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts through relative standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Patricia; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2017-04-01

    Southern Mediterranean basins are prone to droughts, due to the high temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In addition, semiarid Mediterranean regions emerge as noticeable climate change hotspots, with high uncertainty about the impacts of climate change on future droughts. Standardized drought indices have been traditionally used to assess and identify drought events, because of their simplicity and flexibility to compare the departure from normal status across regions at different timescales. Nevertheless, the statistical foundation of these indices assumes stationarity for certain aspects of the cli-matic variables, which could not be longer adopted under climate change. Thus, in recent years several modifications have been proposed in order to cope with these limitations. This contribution provides a framework to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts, considering the predicted shifts in precipitation and temperature and the uncertainty of the assumed distribution parameters. To characterize drought in a climate change context, relative standardized indices instead of the traditional ones are applied: Standardized Precipitation Index (rSPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (rSPEI) and a Standardized Flow Index (rSFI). The behavior of the rSPI versus the multiscalar rSPEI is contrasted. A modification of the Thornthwaite scheme is presented to improve the representation of the intra-annual variation of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) in continental climate areas. The uncertainty due to the selected hydrological model is assessed through the comparison of the performance and outcome of three conceptual lumped-parameter models (Temez, GR2M, and HBV-light). The Temez model was selected to obtain the runoff for the rSFI, given that it showed the best fitting in our case study. To address the uncertainty of the indices distribution parameters, bootstrapping was combined with the computation of the

  7. Modeling the dynamics of DDT in a remote tropical floodplain: indications of post-ban use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Annelle; Ng, Carla A; Torres, João Paulo Machado; Bastos, Wanderley; Bogdal, Christian; Dos Reis, George Alexandre; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2016-06-01

    Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants like dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in tropical environments. In Brazil, indoor residual spraying with DDT to combat malaria and leishmaniasis began in the 1950s and was banned in 1998. Nonetheless, high concentrations of DDT and its metabolites were recently detected in human breast milk in the community of Lake Puruzinho in the Brazilian Amazon. In this work, we couple analysis of soils and sediments from 2005 to 2014 at Puruzinho with a novel dynamic floodplain model to investigate the movement and distribution of DDT and its transformation products (dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD)) and implications for human exposure. The model results are in good agreement with the accumulation pattern observed in the measurements, in which DDT, DDE, and DDD (collectively, DDX) accumulate primarily in upland soils and sediments. However, a significant increase was observed in DDX concentrations in soil samples from 2005 to 2014, coupled with a decrease of DDT/DDE ratios, which do not agree with model results assuming a post-ban regime. These observations strongly suggest recent use. We used the model to investigate possible re-emissions after the ban through two scenarios: one assuming DDT use for IRS and the other assuming use against termites and leishmaniasis. Median DDX concentrations and p,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDE ratios from both of these scenarios agreed with measurements in soils, suggesting that the soil parameterization in our model was appropriate. Measured DDX concentrations in sediments were between the two re-emission scenarios. Therefore, both soil and sediment comparisons suggest re-emissions indeed occurred between 2005 and 2014, but additional measurements would be needed to better understand the actual re-emission patterns. Monte Carlo analysis revealed model predictions for sediments were very sensitive to highly

  8. Data-driven analysis of soil quality indicators using limited data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido Moncada, Mansonia; Gabriels, Donald; Cornelis, Wim

    2016-04-01

    The difficult question of which variables to include as a minimum data set of soil quality (SQ) indicators may be simplified by statistical methods, which allow working with databases including categorical and numerical variables commonly used for assessing SQ. The aims of this study were: i) to identify soil structural related parameters that may associate to SQ at different geographic areas and ii) to test the potential power of using decision trees in setting up a framework for SQ assessment, and in determining structural soil properties, visually evaluated, that could be included in the estimation of soil physical properties such as saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks). SQ was evaluated by visual soil assessment (VSA) in the field and a limited number of physical and chemical soil properties (bulk density (BD), air capacity, plant available water capacity (PAWC), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), water stable aggregates (WSA), particle size distribution, soil organic carbon (SOC) and cation exchange capacity (CEC)) determined in the laboratory. Using categorical and numerical data of those physical, chemical and morphological properties of soils in both tropical and temperate areas, classification trees and model trees were grown. Parameters related to SQ differed between geographic areas. Ks was the strongest variable determining the SQ in 'tropical' soils, but WSA, SOC and PAWC were also key variables in determining differences in SQ. For 'temperate' soils PAWC was the only variable selected by the tree building algorithm. SOC, clay, and CEC were the discriminating variables of the model constructed from the combined data set. Statistically significant relationships between measured and visual parameters are promising in demonstrating the SQ description required for merging morphological, physical and chemical properties for minimum data set of SQ indicators. Thresholds of different predicting variables could be better established when SQ frameworks

  9. Kernel density surface modelling as a means to identify significant concentrations of vulnerable marine ecosystem indicators.

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    Ellen Kenchington

    Full Text Available The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105, concerning sustainable fisheries in the marine ecosystem, calls for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VME from destructive fishing practices. Subsequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO produced guidelines for identification of VME indicator species/taxa to assist in the implementation of the resolution, but recommended the development of case-specific operational definitions for their application. We applied kernel density estimation (KDE to research vessel trawl survey data from inside the fishing footprint of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO Regulatory Area in the high seas of the northwest Atlantic to create biomass density surfaces for four VME indicator taxa: large-sized sponges, sea pens, small and large gorgonian corals. These VME indicator taxa were identified previously by NAFO using the fragility, life history characteristics and structural complexity criteria presented by FAO, along with an evaluation of their recovery trajectories. KDE, a non-parametric neighbour-based smoothing function, has been used previously in ecology to identify hotspots, that is, areas of relatively high biomass/abundance. We present a novel approach of examining relative changes in area under polygons created from encircling successive biomass categories on the KDE surface to identify "significant concentrations" of biomass, which we equate to VMEs. This allows identification of the VMEs from the broader distribution of the species in the study area. We provide independent assessments of the VMEs so identified using underwater images, benthic sampling with other gear types (dredges, cores, and/or published species distribution models of probability of occurrence, as available. For each VME indicator taxon we provide a brief review of their ecological function which will be important in future assessments of significant adverse impact on these habitats here

  10. Improving assessment accuracy for lake biological condition by classifying lakes with diatom typology, varying metrics and modeling multimetric indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Stevenson, R Jan

    2017-12-31

    Site grouping by regions or typologies, site-specific modeling and varying metrics among site groups are four approaches that account for natural variation, which can be a major source of error in ecological assessments. Using a data set from the 2007 National Lakes Assessment project of the USEPA, we compared performances of multimetric indices (MMI) of biological condition that were developed: (1) with different lake grouping methods, ecoregions or diatom typologies; (2) by varying or not varying metrics among site groups; and (3) with different statistical techniques for modeling diatom metric values expected for minimally disturbed condition for each lake. Hierarchical modeling of MMIs, i.e. grouping sites by ecoregions or typologies and then modeling natural variability in metrics among lakes within groups, substantially improved MMI performance compared to using either ecoregions or site-specific modeling alone. Compared with MMIs based on ecoregion site groups, MMI precision and sensitivity to human disturbance were better when sites were grouped by diatom typologies and assessing performance nationwide. However, when MMI performance was evaluated at site group levels, as some government agencies often do, there was little difference in MMI performance between the two site grouping methods. Low numbers of reference and highly impacted sites in some typology groups likely limited MMI performance at the group level of analysis. Varying metrics among site groups did not improve MMI performance. Random forest models for site-specific expected metric values performed better than classification and regression tree and multiple linear regression, except when numbers of reference sites were small in site groups. Then classification and regression tree models were most precise. Based on our results, we recommend hierarchical modeling in future large scale lake assessments where lakes are grouped by ecoregions or diatom typologies and site-specific metric models are

  11. Timing analysis by model checking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naydich, Dimitri; Guaspari, David

    2000-01-01

    The safety of modern avionics relies on high integrity software that can be verified to meet hard real-time requirements. The limits of verification technology therefore determine acceptable engineering practice. To simplify verification problems, safety-critical systems are commonly implemented under the severe constraints of a cyclic executive, which make design an expensive trial-and-error process highly intolerant of change. Important advances in analysis techniques, such as rate monotonic analysis (RMA), have provided a theoretical and practical basis for easing these onerous restrictions. But RMA and its kindred have two limitations: they apply only to verifying the requirement of schedulability (that tasks meet their deadlines) and they cannot be applied to many common programming paradigms. We address both these limitations by applying model checking, a technique with successful industrial applications in hardware design. Model checking algorithms analyze finite state machines, either by explicit state enumeration or by symbolic manipulation. Since quantitative timing properties involve a potentially unbounded state variable (a clock), our first problem is to construct a finite approximation that is conservative for the properties being analyzed-if the approximation satisfies the properties of interest, so does the infinite model. To reduce the potential for state space explosion we must further optimize this finite model. Experiments with some simple optimizations have yielded a hundred-fold efficiency improvement over published techniques.

  12. High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S

    2016-11-01

    With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an FST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing.

  13. Correlation analysis between forest carbon stock and spectral vegetation indices in Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, The; Kappas, Martin

    2017-04-01

    In the last several years, the interest in forest biomass and carbon stock estimation has increased due to its importance for forest management, modelling carbon cycle, and other ecosystem services. However, no estimates of biomass and carbon stocks of deferent forest cover types exist throughout in the Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam. This study investigates the relationship between above ground carbon stock and different vegetation indices and to identify the most likely vegetation index that best correlate with forest carbon stock. The terrestrial inventory data come from 380 sample plots that were randomly sampled. Individual tree parameters such as DBH and tree height were collected to calculate the above ground volume, biomass and carbon for different forest types. The SPOT6 2013 satellite data was used in the study to obtain five vegetation indices NDVI, RDVI, MSR, RVI, and EVI. The relationships between the forest carbon stock and vegetation indices were investigated using a multiple linear regression analysis. R-square, RMSE values and cross-validation were used to measure the strength and validate the performance of the models. The methodology presented here demonstrates the possibility of estimating forest volume, biomass and carbon stock. It can also be further improved by addressing more spectral bands data and/or elevation.

  14. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

  15. Analysis of the indices of thermal comfort for the conditions of the Mexican Republic; Analisis de los indices de confort termico para las condiciones de la republica mexicana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuentes Freixanet, Victor; Rodriguez Viqueira, Manuel [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Unidad Azcapotzalco (Mexico)

    2009-07-15

    The objective of this article is to analyze different indices of thermal comfort for the Mexican Republic. Among them the Fanger (PMV and PPD) physiological methods of comfort and the new effective temperature index are included. The standard effective temperature (SET), as well as the adaptive methods of Humphreys and Nicol, Auliciems, De Dear and Brager. A comparative analysis is done of the different indices through thematic maps determined by interpolation, using a climatic data base of 700 cities obtained from the observatories and stations of the National Meteorological Service. This article pretends to establish general criteria of the thermal comfort to later define design strategies for each one of the climatic regions of the Mexican Republic. [Spanish] El objetivo de este articulo es analizar distintos indices de confort termico para la Republica Mexicana. Entre ellos se incluyen los metodos fisiologicos de confort de Fanger (PMV y PPD), el indice de nueva temperatura efectiva. La temperatura efectiva estandar (SET), asi como los metodos adaptativos de Humphreys y Nicol, Auliciems, De Dear y Brager. Se hace un analisis comparativo de los distintos indices a traves de mapas tematicos determinados por interpolacion, usando una base de datos climaticos de 700 ciudades obtenidos de los observatorios y estaciones del Servicio Meteorologico Nacional. Este articulo presenta establecer criterios generales del confort termico para posteriormente definir estrategias de diseno para cada una de las regiones climaticas de la Republica Mexicana.

  16. Principles and indicators of successful consumer involvement in NHS research: results of a Delphi study and subgroup analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boote, Jonathan; Barber, Rosemary; Cooper, Cindy

    2006-02-01

    Consumer involvement in NHS research is Department of Health policy within the UK. Despite the existence of policy directives and guidance, until recently there has been no consensus among consumers and researchers about what it means to involve consumers successfully in NHS research. This paper discusses the value of consensus research in this policy area, and presents the detailed findings of a Delphi study carried out to reach consensus on principles and indicators of successful consumer involvement in NHS research. Study participants, comprising consumers, researchers and consumer-researchers, were identified using a purposive sampling strategy. Consensus was reached on eight clear and valid principles of successful consumer involvement in NHS research, with each principle having at least one clear and valid indicator. Subgroup analysis revealed few significant differences in how consumers, researchers and consumer-researchers rated the principles and indicators. The implications and limitations of the study are discussed. Further research is needed to assess: (1) the usefulness of the principles and indicators for differing models of consumer involvement, health research methodologies, and subject areas within health research; and (2) the impact of 'successful' consumer involvement on health research processes and outcomes.

  17. NCA-LDAS: An Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis System for Development, Evaluation, and Dissemination of Climate Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasinski, M. F.; Arsenault, K. R.; Beaudoing, H. K.; Bolten, J. D.; Borak, J.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Li, B.; Liu, Y.; Mocko, D. M.; Rodell, M.

    2014-12-01

    An Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis System, or NCA-LDAS, has been created to enable development, evaluation, and dissemination of terrestrial hydrologic climate indicators focusing on the continental U.S. The purpose is to provide quantifiable indicators of states and estimated trends in our nation's water stores and fluxes over a wide range of scales and locations, to support improved understanding and management of water resources and numerous related sectors such as agriculture and energy. NCA-LDAS relies on improved modeling of terrestrial hydrology through assimilation of satellite imagery, building upon the legacy of the Land Information System modeling framework (Kumar et al, 2006; Peters-Lidard et al, 2007). It currently employs the Noah or Catchment Land Surface Model, run with a number of satellite data assimilation scenarios. The domain for NCA-LDAS is the continental U.S. at 1/8 degree grid for the period 1979 to present. Satellite-based variables that are assimilated are soil moisture and snow water equivalent from principally microwave sensors such as SMMR, SSM/I and AMSR, snow covered area from multispectral sensors such as AVHRR, and MODIS, and terrestrial water storage from GRACE. Once simulated, output are evaluated in comparison to independent datasets using a variety of metrics using the Land Surface Verification Toolkit (LVT). LVT schemes within NCA-LDAS also include routines for computing standard statistics of time series such means, max, and linear trends, at various scales. The dissemination of the NCA-LDAS, including model descriptions, forcings, parameters, daily output, indicator results and LVT tools, have been made available to the public through dissemination on NASA GES-DISC.

  18. Data warehouse model for monitoring key performance indicators (KPIs) using goal oriented approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Mohammed Thajeel; Ta'a, Azman; Bakar, Muhamad Shahbani Abu

    2016-08-01

    The growth and development of universities, just as other organizations, depend on their abilities to strategically plan and implement development blueprints which are in line with their vision and mission statements. The actualizations of these statements, which are often designed into goals and sub-goals and linked to their respective actors are better measured by defining key performance indicators (KPIs) of the university. The proposes ReGADaK, which is an extended the GRAnD approach highlights the facts, dimensions, attributes, measures and KPIs of the organization. The measures from the goal analysis of this unit serve as the basis of developing the related university's KPIs. The proposed data warehouse schema is evaluated through expert review, prototyping and usability evaluation. The findings from the evaluation processes suggest that the proposed data warehouse schema is suitable for monitoring the University's KPIs.

  19. Sustainability and the Spanish port system. Analysis of the relationship between economic and environmental indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laxe, Fernando González; Bermúdez, Federico Martín; Palmero, Federico Martín; Novo-Corti, Isabel

    2016-12-15

    Research into the methodological development of alternative systems of sustainability measures is recent. In understanding sustainable development in a multi-dimensional sense, one of the most significant advances was the construction of Synthetic Indexes, applicable to different spatial spheres or to organisations, businesses, institutions, etc. The Spanish port system of general interest comprises 46 ports integrated in 28 Port Authorities, which in 2014 moved 482,000,000t of goods and more than 28 million passengers. This gives an idea of its importance for the Spanish economy. Using a derivation of the procedure used to calculate the Port Sustainability Synthetic Index, in this research the analysis of the relationship that exists between the findings obtained for the economic and environmental dimensions is used. This enables the existence of links between ports and economic and environmental indicators for a sample of 16 Port Authorities of Spain to be verified. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The impact of financial balance indicators on the companies - Analysis on economic sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iustin Dalea

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a financial balance analysis of some companies, which are grouped in three economic sectors: manufacturing, construction and tourism. The main focus consists in the impact of the three financial balance indicators have (floating capital, necessary working capital, net treasury on the activities that underline each economic sector. The applicative part of this paper is materialized in a scientific approach that includes a number of 27 companies, grouped after the domain, from Timis County, Romania, which has in view to obtain useful and perspective information concerning the financial balance, based on the specific behavior of the activity they perform, aiming also the possibility of taking useful and correct decisions. This approach represents our own vision about the differences of achieving a financial balance state within each economic sector analyzed.

  1. Isotopic analysis of island House Martins Delichon urbica indicates marine provenance of nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Adam D P; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Österblom, Henrik; McGill, Rona A R; Furness, Robert W

    2014-07-01

    The presence of one of the largest colonies of House Martins in Europe on the small island of Stora Karlsö, Sweden, led us to investigate the source of their food by analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Carbon isotopic values of House Martin nestlings were the same as those of Common Guillemot Uria aalge nestlings fed on marine fish, but differed from local Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis nestlings fed on woodland insects. We infer that these House Martins fed their chicks almost exclusively on insects that had used nutrients derived from seabirds, indicating a dependence on the presence of a large seabird colony. We suggest by extension that some populations of island passerines of high conservation importance may also be dependent on nutrient subsidies from seabird colonies.

  2. New analysis indicates no thermal inversion in the atmosphere of HD 209458b

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamond-Lowe, Hannah; Stevenson, Kevin B.; Bean, Jacob L. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Line, Michael R.; Fortney, Jonathan J., E-mail: hdiamondlowe@uchicago.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2014-11-20

    An important focus of exoplanet research is the determination of the atmospheric temperature structure of strongly irradiated gas giant planets, or hot Jupiters. HD 209458b is the prototypical exoplanet for atmospheric thermal inversions, but this assertion does not take into account recently obtained data or newer data reduction techniques. We reexamine this claim by investigating all publicly available Spitzer Space Telescope secondary-eclipse photometric data of HD 209458b and performing a self-consistent analysis. We employ data reduction techniques that minimize stellar centroid variations, apply sophisticated models to known Spitzer systematics, and account for time-correlated noise in the data. We derive new secondary-eclipse depths of 0.119% ± 0.007%, 0.123% ± 0.006%, 0.134% ± 0.035%, and 0.215% ± 0.008% in the 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 μm bandpasses, respectively. We feed these results into a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval analysis and determine that it is unnecessary to invoke a thermal inversion to explain our secondary-eclipse depths. The data are well fitted by a temperature model that decreases monotonically between pressure levels of 1 and 0.01 bars. We conclude that there is no evidence for a thermal inversion in the atmosphere of HD 209458b.

  3. Ventilation Model and Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    V. Chipman

    2003-07-18

    This model and analysis report develops, validates, and implements a conceptual model for heat transfer in and around a ventilated emplacement drift. This conceptual model includes thermal radiation between the waste package and the drift wall, convection from the waste package and drift wall surfaces into the flowing air, and conduction in the surrounding host rock. These heat transfer processes are coupled and vary both temporally and spatially, so numerical and analytical methods are used to implement the mathematical equations which describe the conceptual model. These numerical and analytical methods predict the transient response of the system, at the drift scale, in terms of spatially varying temperatures and ventilation efficiencies. The ventilation efficiency describes the effectiveness of the ventilation process in removing radionuclide decay heat from the drift environment. An alternative conceptual model is also developed which evaluates the influence of water and water vapor mass transport on the ventilation efficiency. These effects are described using analytical methods which bound the contribution of latent heat to the system, quantify the effects of varying degrees of host rock saturation (and hence host rock thermal conductivity) on the ventilation efficiency, and evaluate the effects of vapor and enhanced vapor diffusion on the host rock thermal conductivity.

  4. GFAP expression as an indicator of disease severity in mouse models of Alexander disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albee Messing

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available AxD (Alexander disease is a rare disorder caused by heterozygous mutations in GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein resulting in accumulation of the GFAP protein and elevation of Gfap mRNA. To test whether GFAP itself can serve as a biomarker of disease status or progression, we investigated two independent measures of GFAP expression in AxD mouse models, one using a genetic reporter of promoter activity and the other quantifying GFAP protein directly in a manner that could also be employed in human studies. Using a transgenic reporter line that expresses firefly luciferase under the control of the murine Gfap promoter (Gfap-luc, we found that luciferase activity reflected the regional CNS (central nervous system variability of Gfap mRNA in Gfap+/+ mice, and increased in mice containing a point mutation in Gfap that mimics a common human mutation in AxD (R239H in the human sequence, and R236H in the murine sequence. In a second set of studies, we quantified GFAP protein in CSF (cerebrospinal fluid taken from three different AxD mouse models and littermate controls. GFAP levels in CSF were increased in all three AxD models, in a manner corresponding to the concentrations of GFAP in brain. These studies demonstrate that transactivation of the Gfap promoter is an early and sustained indicator of the disease process in the mouse. Furthermore, GFAP in CSF serves as a potential biomarker that is comparable between mouse models and human patients.

  5. TANK48 CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-17

    The process of recovering the waste in storage tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS) typically requires mixing the contents of the tank to ensure uniformity of the discharge stream. Mixing is accomplished with one to four dual-nozzle slurry pumps located within the tank liquid. For the work, a Tank 48 simulation model with a maximum of four slurry pumps in operation has been developed to estimate flow patterns for efficient solid mixing. The modeling calculations were performed by using two modeling approaches. One approach is a single-phase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to evaluate the flow patterns and qualitative mixing behaviors for a range of different modeling conditions since the model was previously benchmarked against the test results. The other is a two-phase CFD model to estimate solid concentrations in a quantitative way by solving the Eulerian governing equations for the continuous fluid and discrete solid phases over the entire fluid domain of Tank 48. The two-phase results should be considered as the preliminary scoping calculations since the model was not validated against the test results yet. A series of sensitivity calculations for different numbers of pumps and operating conditions has been performed to provide operational guidance for solids suspension and mixing in the tank. In the analysis, the pump was assumed to be stationary. Major solid obstructions including the pump housing, the pump columns, and the 82 inch central support column were included. The steady state and three-dimensional analyses with a two-equation turbulence model were performed with FLUENT{trademark} for the single-phase approach and CFX for the two-phase approach. Recommended operational guidance was developed assuming that local fluid velocity can be used as a measure of sludge suspension and spatial mixing under single-phase tank model. For quantitative analysis, a two-phase fluid-solid model was developed for the same modeling conditions as the single

  6. Suicidality and divalproex sodium: analysis of controlled studies in multiple indications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacs Xenia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent analyses of antiepileptic drugs have indicated an increase in the risk of suicidality. The objective of this report was to provide clinical information and an independent meta-analysis of divalproex sodium and suicidality events by analyzing data from 13 placebo-controlled studies and 1 low-dose controlled study. Methods Adverse events considered to be possibly suicide related were identified using the Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment (C-CASA methodology. Indications included epilepsy, bipolar disorder, migraine prophylaxis, impulsive aggression, and dementia. Narratives were produced for every event, and suicidality event ratings were performed by a third party blinded to treatment assignment. Statistical analyses were conducted using methodology similar to that reported by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA. Results Suicidality events were identified in 5 of the 13 placebo-controlled studies. Of the 1,327 (0.83% subjects taking divalproex sodium, 11 had suicidality events: 2 suicide attempts and 9 suicidal ideation. Of 992 (0.91% subjects taking placebo, 9 had suicidality events: 1 preparatory act toward suicide, 2 suicide attempts, and 6 suicidal ideation. Across placebo-controlled studies, the overall estimated odds ratio (OR of suicidal behavior or ideation was 0.72 (95% CI 0.29 to 1.84. The OR for suicidal behavior was 0.37 (95% CI 0.04 to 2.58, and the OR for suicidal ideation was 0.90 (95% CI 0.31 to 2.79. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, divalproex sodium does not appear to increase the risk of suicide-related adverse events relative to placebo in the populations studied. Clinicians should nonetheless remain vigilant in assessing suicidality, not only in patients treated for mental disorders with inherently high suicide risk, but also in patients taking antiepileptic medications.

  7. Factor Analysis of Agricultural Development Indicators from Iranian Agriculture Experts’ Viewpoints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sadegh Sabouri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture and its development is the foundation of development in Iran as a developing country. So, it can be regarded as the foundation for economical and social development. The capabilities of agriculture sector are limited and its efficiency is trivial because of neglecting agricultural development and keeping its support just as a slogan. The transformation of agriculture to a developed, dynamic, efficient environment depends not only on appropriate climate and natural resources but also on human resource development in the relevant sector. The main purpose of the present research was to study and recognize agricultural development indicators from agriculture experts’ viewpoints (including researchers, trainers and extension experts in six provinces in Iran on the basis of Adjacent Provinces Plan. The study was designed with three phases of theoretical foundations, field operations and data analysis. The statistical population was 863 experts, out of which 198 experts were selected by stratified sampling. The validity and reliability of measurement tool (questionnaire was analyzed by SPSS software package. The study was a correlation-descriptive study in which factor analysis statistics was used in addition to descriptive statistics. Experts grouped indicators of future agricultural development in nine groups (access to inputs, application of technologies for the development of human resource and sustainability; reduction of losses; economical development; improvement of infrastructures; agricultural mechanization; social status; improvement of marketing; land reform; yield increase. Results about the difference in respondents’ viewpoints revealed significant differences in experts’ viewpoints in six studied province about relevant variables and in their viewpoints about the components of agricultural development (infrastructure improvement, marketing, optimum management and sustainability, human resource development and economical

  8. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of financial market efficiency: Comparison using Dow Jones sector ETF indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2017-10-01

    This study challenges the efficient market hypothesis, relying on the Dow Jones sector Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) indices. For this purpose, we use the generalized Hurst exponent and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) methods, using daily data over the timespan from 2000 to 2015. We compare the sector ETF indices in terms of market efficiency between short- and long-run horizons, small and large fluctuations, and before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, there is clear evidence that the sector ETF markets are multifractal in nature. We also find a crossover in the multifractality of sector ETF market dynamics. Second, the utilities and consumer goods sector ETF markets are more efficient compared with the financial and telecommunications sector ETF markets, in terms of price prediction. Third, there are noteworthy discrepancies in terms of market efficiency, between the short- and long-term horizons. Fourth, the ETF market efficiency is considerably diminished after the global financial crisis.

  9. ANALYSIS OF OPERATING PARAMETERS AND INDICATORS OF A COMPRESSION IGNITION ENGINE FUELLED WITH LPG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof GARBALA

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the possibilities for using alternative fuels to power vehicles equipped with compression ignition (CI engines (diesel. Systems for using such fuels have been discussed. Detailed analysis and research covered the LPG STAG autogas system, which is used to power dual-fuel engine units (LPG+diesel. A description of the operation of the autogas system and installation in a vehicle has been presented. The basic algorithms of the controller, which is an actuating element of the whole system, have been discussed. Protection systems of a serial production engine unit to guarantee its factorycontrolled durability standards have been presented. A long-distance test drive and examinations of the engine over 150,000 km in a Toyota Hilux have been performed. Operating parameters and performance indicators of the engine with STAG LPG+diesel fuelling have been verified. Directions and perspectives for the further development of such a system in diesel-powered cars have been also indicated.

  10. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  11. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  12. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all. PMID:20849605

  13. Exploratory analysis of user-generated photos and indicators that influence their appeal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urban Sedlar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze if simple indicators related to photo quality (brightness, sharpness, color palette and established content detection techniques (face detection can predict the success of photos in obtaining more “likes” from other users of photo-sharing social networks. This provides a unique look into the habits of users of such networks. The analysis was performed on 394.000 images downloaded from the social photo-sharing site Instagram, paired with a de-identified dataset of user liking activity, provided by a seller of a social-media mobile app. Two user groups were analyzed: all users in a two month period (N = 122.260 and a highly selective group (N = 3.982 of users that only like <10% of what they view. No correlation was found with any of the indicators using the whole (non-selective population, likely due to their bias towards earning virtual currency in exchange for liking. However, in selective group, small positive correlation was found between like ratio and image sharpness (r=0.09, p<0.0001 and small negative correlation between like ratio and the number of faces (r=-0.10, p<0.0001.

  14. Online damage detection using recursive principal component analysis and recursive condition indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M.; Bhowmik, B.; Tiwari, A. K.; Hazra, B.

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a novel baseline free approach for continuous online damage detection of multi degree of freedom vibrating structures using recursive principal component analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with online damage indicators is proposed. In this method, the acceleration data is used to obtain recursive proper orthogonal modes in online using the rank-one perturbation method, and subsequently utilized to detect the change in the dynamic behavior of the vibrating system from its pristine state to contiguous linear/nonlinear-states that indicate damage. The RPCA algorithm iterates the eigenvector and eigenvalue estimates for sample covariance matrices and new data point at each successive time instants, using the rank-one perturbation method. An online condition indicator (CI) based on the L2 norm of the error between actual response and the response projected using recursive eigenvector matrix updates over successive iterations is proposed. This eliminates the need for offline post processing and facilitates online damage detection especially when applied to streaming data. The proposed CI, named recursive residual error, is also adopted for simultaneous spatio-temporal damage detection. Numerical simulations performed on five-degree of freedom nonlinear system under white noise and El Centro excitations, with different levels of nonlinearity simulating the damage scenarios, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed algorithm. Successful results obtained from practical case studies involving experiments performed on a cantilever beam subjected to earthquake excitation, for full sensors and underdetermined cases; and data from recorded responses of the UCLA Factor building (full data and its subset) demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology as an ideal candidate for real-time, reference free structural health monitoring.

  15. Improving Physical Activity and Metabolic Syndrome Indicators in Women: A Transtheoretical Model-Based Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafavi, Firoozeh; Ghofranipour, Fazllolah; Feizi, Awat; Pirzadeh, Asiyeh

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study aimed at investigating the impact of an educational intervention based on transtheoretical model to increase physical activity and improve metabolic syndrome indicators in women. Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 142 women with metabolic syndrome were randomly assigned to the case and control group (each group 71 participants). SECQ (Marcus), processes of change (Marcus), decisional balance (Bandura) and self-efficacy (Nigg) questionnaires and International Physical Activities Standard Questionnaire in preintervention, 3 and 6 months after intervention were completed. Furthermore, abdominal obesity, triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were measured. Physical activity intervention based on transtheoretical model (TTM) was performed in the case group. Finally, data were analyzed by SPSS (16) (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) and repeated measure ANOVA, independent t-test and Freidman was used. A two-tailed P value, lower than 0.05, was considered to be statistically significant. Results: After the intervention, physical activity level increased in the intervention group, and they also progressed in stages of change, but the people in the control group had regressed. All changes in TTM constructs were significant in the intervention group during the time and differences in pros and cons were not significant in the control group. Abdominal obesity and TG has significantly reduced, and HDL has increased in the intervention group. In the control group, there was a significant increase in TGs and a decrease in HDL. Conclusions: Physical activity training based on TTM can improve physical activity and metabolic syndrome indicators in women. PMID:25949778

  16. Quality management indicators for tissue banks: an operative model from the period of 2002-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldías, M; Alvarez, I; Pérez Campos, H; Sánchez, G; Acosta, M

    2009-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine a specific indicator model to evaluate the Quality Management System (QMS) in Tissue Banks (TB) for deceased and/or live donors. Quantitative Indicators for Quality Management are considered for deceased donors as the origin of therapeutic tissues. A glossary of definitions was established (also applicable for tissues from live donors): Deceased Therapeutic Real Donors (DTRD), donors that were processed and at least 1 tissue was harvested for a therapeutic purpose; Deceased Effective Donors (DED), DTRD in which 1 or more tissues were validated, stored, and/or grafted; Processed Tissues (PT), number of tissues harvested from a DTRD, which were processed and counted as final product units; Validated Tissues (VT), number of tissues as final product units, which fulfilled quality criteria to be grafted; Grafted Tissues (GT), number of transplanted tissues for therapeutic purposes; and Grafted Patients (GP), number of patients who were grafted with validated tissues. MANAGEMENT QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS: Deceased donors were considered from 2002 to 2007. The total number of tissues was 15,363: Productivity Index (PI), PI = DED/DTRD; Processing Quality Rate (PQR), PQR = VT/PT%; Productivity Efficiency per Donor (PED), PED = VT/DED; Grafted Tissues Coefficient (GTC), GTC = GT/VT; and Grafted Patients Index per Donor (GID), GID = GP/DED. Results were as follows: PI = 0.80; PQR = 76%; PED = 30.99; GTC = 0.93; and GID = 4. In our study, 80% of DTRD produced VT (PI = 0.80), which represented 76% of PT (average, 31 final products per donor). Also, 93% of the VT were grafted with 5 patients grafted per donor. Defined variables resulted in useful tools to evaluate QMS in a TB.

  17. Social indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, E B; Parke, R

    1975-05-16

    The notions of social indicators and social accounting, expressed by analogy with the national economic accounts, generated excitement in the 1960's, and the interest continues to grow if we may judge from governmental activity and the publication of programmatic and research papers. But the concepts which focused much of the early enthusiasm gave exaggerated promise of policy applications and provided an unproductive basis for research. The essential theoretical prerequisites for developing a system of social accounts-defining the variables and the interrelationships among them-are missing. It is now realized that evaluation research, particularly experimentation, must be relied on for evaluation of government programs. Through the development and analysis of descriptive time series and the modeling of social processes, we will be able to describe the state of the society and its dynamics and thus improve immensely our ability to state problems in a productive fashion, obtain clues as to promising lines of endeavor, and ask good questions. But these activities cannot measure program effectiveness. Finally, we must be skeptical about definitions of the social indicators enterprise which confine it to social engineering efforts. The issue is not whether social indicators are useful for policy but, rather, how this usefulness comes about. The interest in social indicators has stimulated a revival of interest in quantitative, comparative, social analysis (60), in the analysis of social change, in conceptual and measurement work on such topics as prejudice, crime, and learning, and in the development of models of social processes. The fruit of these efforts will be more directly a contribution to the policy-maker's cognition than to his decisions. Decision emerges from a mosaic of inputs, including valuational and political, as well as technical components. The work we have described deals with only one type of input; it is a contribution to the intellectual mapping

  18. How to use composite indicator and linear programming model for determine sustainable tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaabadi, Maryam; Malakootian, Mohammad; Zare Mehrjerdi, Mohammad Reza; Jalaee, Seied Abdolmajid; Mehrabi Boshrabadi, Hosein

    2017-01-01

    The tourism industry which is one of the most dynamic economic activities in today's world plays a significant role in the sustainable development. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to tourism, sustainable tourism must be taken into huge account; otherwise, the environment and its health will be damaged irreparably. To determine the level of sustainability in this study, indicators of sustainable tourism were first presented in three environmental health, economic and social aspects. Then, the levels of sustainable tourism and environmental sustainability were practically measured in different cities of Kerman Province using a composite indicator, a linear programming model, Delphi method and the questionnaire technique. Finally, the study cities (tourist attractions) were ranked. Result of this study showed that unfortunately the tourism opportunities were not used appropriately in these cities and tourist destinations, and that environmental aspect (health and environmental sustainability) had very bad situations compared to social and economic aspects. In other words, environmental health had the lowest levels of sustainability. The environment is a place for all human activities like tourism, social and economic issues; therefore, its stability and health is of great importance. Thus, it is necessary to pay more attention to sustainability of activities, management and environmental health in planning sustainable development in regional and national policy.

  19. A business model for managing system change through strategic financing and performance indicators: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Mary I; Milch, Heidi; Curtis, Peter; Endress, Phillip

    2012-06-01

    This article describes how a system of care operated by a county government agency used a fiscal crisis as the opportunity to reform its children's system. A cross-system response to the crisis is outlined that includes a system of care framework coupled with a business model, inter-departmental collaboration and leadership, the use of strategic reinvestment strategies, and a quality improvement system that focuses on key indicators. Implementation of the system change is described with a specific focus on cross-system entry points, financing strategies that re-allocate funds from deep-end programs to community-based services, and management oversight through the use of performance indicators to monitor and support effectiveness. This article examines the results of the system change, including the diversion of youth from system penetration, the reduction in residential treatment bed days, the re-allocation of these savings to community-based services, and the outcomes of children who were diverted from residential care and served in the community. The article offers a number of recommendations for other communities contemplating system change.

  20. Nasogastric aspiration as an indicator for feed absorption in model-based glycemic control in neonatal intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Cameron A; Dickson, Jennifer L; Hewett, James N; Lynn, Adrienne; Rose, Hamish J; Clarkson, Sooji H; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2013-05-01

    STAR (stochastic targeted) is a glycemic control model-based framework for critically ill neonates that has shown benefits in reducing hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. STAR uses a stochastic matrix method to forecast future changes in a patient's insulin sensitivity and then applies this result to a physiological model to select an optimal insulin treatment. Nasogastric aspiration may be used as an indicator to suggest periods of care when enteral feed absorption is compromised, improving the performance of glycemic control. An analysis has been carried out to investigate the effect of poorly absorbed feeds on glycemic control. Clinical data were collected from eight patients on insulin therapy and enteral feed, which included large or significantly milky aspirates. Patients had a median gestational age of 25 weeks and postnatal age of 5.5 days. Virtual patients were created using the NICING model, and insulin sensitivity (SI) profiles were fit. Alternative feed profiles were generated whereby enteral feed absorption was redistributed with time to account for poor feed absorption. The effect of poor feed absorption, as indicated by aspirates, is investigated. The average percentage change of SI 4 h before a significant aspirate was 1.16%, and 1.49% in the 4 h following the aspirate. No distinct relationship was found between the fractional change in SI and the volume of the aspirate. Accounting for aspirates had a clinically negligible impact on glycemic control in virtual trials. Accounting for aspirates by manipulating enteral feed profiles had a minimal influence on both modeling and controlling glycemia in neonates. The impact of this method is clinically insignificant, suggesting that a population constant for the rate of glucose absorption in the gut adequately models feed absorption within the STAR framework. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

  1. Global Indicators Analysis and Consultancy Experience Insights into Correlation between Entrepreneurial Activities and Business Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovan Krivokapić

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Many researches and practical experiences clearly indicate the existence of a strong relationship between entrepreneurial activities and the business environment in which these activities are initiated. Although this topic has been quite ignored until the late twentieth century, a lot of studies and consulting practice have contributed to the fact that there are now a number of theories concerning mentioned correlation. These theories aim to offer a model that would provide better utilization of the possibilities from the business environment which could be very important for the development from both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects. An increasing number of articles on this topic says enough about its importance, and numerous researches by many reputable globally recognized institutions go in favor of this claim. There are many indicators that observe the economic situation in a country or a region from different aspects, so the analyses of these indicators make it possible to determine the specific relationships between entrepreneurial activities and the local and the global business environment. Given the complexity of these relations, the impact cannot be observed partially, without taking into consideration other important factors, but more detailed analyses, however, result in some useful conclusions, which in the proper context can have a positive impact on many economic factors. It is very important to emphasize the fact that the correlation between the business environment and entrepreneurial activities is bidirectional, since this influence is mutual, so that changes in one of these factors can and usually cause some modifications in the other. Frequent series of such iterations actually lead to changes in the business environment, while entrepreneurial activity changes its shape and affects the economy of a country or a region, which is of particular importance for its competitiveness in the era of globalization.

  2. LAWS AND PRINCIPLES OF UNIVERSAL VALUE IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea CONSTANTINESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Each extension of the scope of laws and principles that allow both mathematical and statistical remodeling as well as reaffirming the appropriateness of proven methods, stirs up a special study interest. The ever-expanding computational power of laws of power offers to the scientific universe possibility of new approach to the crucial relationship between quantity and quality, between micro and macro dimensions. Boosting broadening the use of quasi-universal value theories in research in order to deepen the analysis of sustainable development indicators can lead to a greater understanding of all aspects of this area and to facilitate understanding of the arguments which underlie any responsible decision making. This assumption underlies the logical conclusion that sustainability becomes even stronger as it benefits from scientific arguments support resulting from research. Although we have confined ourselves in drafting some coordinates for application of each method presented to particular issues of sustainable development, this research theme will be strengthened and pursued through appropriate extensive analysis.

  3. A Statistical Analysis of Solar Surface Indices Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    CERN Document Server

    Goker, Umit Deniz; Nutku, Ferhat; Priyal, Muthu

    2016-01-01

    Variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic field, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas due to the number and the type of sunspots/sunspot groups (SGs) are well established by using ground based data from various centers such as Solar Irradiance Platform, Stanford Data (SFO), Kodaikanal data (KKL) and National Geographical Data Center (NGDC) Homepage, respectively. We applied time series analysis for extracting the data over the descending phases of solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23, and the ascending phases 22 and 23 of SACs, and analyzed the selected data using the Python programming language. Our detailed analysis results suggest that there is a stronger correlation between solar surface indices and the changes in the relative portion of the small and large SGs. This somewhat unexpected finding suggest that plage regions decreased in a lower values in spite of the higher number of large SGs in SAC 23 while Ca II K-flux did not decrease by large amount or it was comparable with SAC 22 for...

  4. Spectral analysis of short period of K indices registered in Huancayo Geomagnetic Observatory

    CERN Document Server

    Rosales, Domingo

    2016-01-01

    Wavelet spectral analysis is applied to the daily indices K (SK) registered in Huancayo geomagnetic observatory from 2000.0 to 2015.0, it has become possible to identify predominant periodic components with a confidence level of 95%. In particular we have investigated the periodicity of 27.0 days and its 13.5, 9.0 and 6.8 harmonics, related to the fundamental period of solar rotation effects. A special analysis registered on periods of 59.0 days might be related to the double period of 29.53 days corresponding to the synodic month. The manifestation of the periods of 182.6, 365 and 730 days corresponding to the harmonics of the seasonal variation of the annual cycle is also observed. An important observation is that the global predominant periods registered 6.8 and 9.0 days, in the years 2009, 2013 and 2014 its effect is too small or null, those periods corresponds to the minimum and maximum solar activity. On the other hand, it is observed that the order of predominance of the harmonic period solar rotation ...

  5. A cluster analysis study based on profitability and financial indicators in the Italian gas retail market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capece, Guendalina; Di Pillo, Francesca; Levialdi, Nathan [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Impresa, Universita di Roma ' Tor Vergata' , Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Roma (Italy); Cricelli, Livio [Dipartimento di Meccanica, Strutture, Ambiente e Territorio, Universita di Cassino, Via G. Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino (Italy)

    2010-07-15

    In the European Union, the natural gas market is increasingly being liberalized. The liberalization process is aimed at leading to lower prices and higher volumes, and hence higher consumer welfare. This paper focuses on the changes in performance in the natural gas retail market by analyzing the profit and financial position of the companies concerned over the first three years following the market liberalization. The balance sheets of 105 Italian companies in this sector are analyzed, after which a cluster analysis is performed employing the most significant performance indexes. The companies are then analyzed within each cluster with respect to age, size, geographical location and business diversification. The results of our analysis show that the majority of companies attained a high level of performance, although this positive outcome was mitigated by the gradual decrease of the average values of performance indicators during the period concerned. The companies that achieve the best performances belong to longstanding business groups, are medium-large sized and are located in the north of the country. Regarding business diversification, in the first two years, the specialised companies outperformed the diversified companies. (author)

  6. Microblog Sentiment Analysis with Emoticon Space Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜飞; 刘奕群; 孙甲申; 朱璇; 张敏; 马少平

    2015-01-01

    Emoticons have been widely employed to express different types of moods, emotions, and feelings in microblog environments. They are therefore regarded as one of the most important signals for microblog sentiment analysis. Most existing studies use several emoticons that convey clear emotional meanings as noisy sentiment labels or similar sentiment indicators. However, in practical microblog environments, tens or even hundreds of emoticons are frequently adopted and all emoticons have their own unique emotional meanings. Besides, a considerable number of emoticons do not have clear emotional meanings. An improved sentiment analysis model should not overlook these phenomena. Instead of manually assigning sentiment labels to several emoticons that convey relatively clear meanings, we propose the emoticon space model (ESM) that leverages more emoticons to construct word representations from a massive amount of unlabeled data. By projecting words and microblog posts into an emoticon space, the proposed model helps identify subjectivity, polarity, and emotion in microblog environments. The experimental results for a public microblog benchmark corpus (NLP&CC 2013) indicate that ESM effectively leverages emoticon signals and outperforms previous state-of-the-art strategies and benchmark best runs.

  7. Flow analysis techniques as effective tools for the improved environmental analysis of organic compounds expressed as total indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maya, Fernando; Estela, José Manuel; Cerdà, Víctor

    2010-04-15

    The scope of this work is the accomplishment of an overview about the current state-of-the-art flow analysis techniques applied to the environmental determination of organic compounds expressed as total indices. Flow analysis techniques are proposed as effective tools for the quick obtention of preliminary chemical information about the occurrence of organic compounds on the environment prior to the use of more complex, time-consuming and expensive instrumental techniques. Recently improved flow-based methodologies for the determination of chemical oxygen demand, halogenated organic compounds and phenols are presented and discussed in detail. The aim of the present work is to demonstrate the highlight of flow-based techniques as vanguard tools on the determination of organic compounds in environmental water samples.

  8. ANALYSIS MODEL FOR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA BURJA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The inventory represents an essential component for the assets of the enterprise and the economic analysis gives them special importance because their accurate management determines the achievement of the activity object and the financial results. The efficient management of inventory requires ensuring an optimum level for them, which will guarantee the normal functioning of the activity with minimum inventory expenses and funds which are immobilised. The paper presents an analysis model for inventory management based on their rotation speed and the correlation with the sales volume illustrated in an adequate study. The highlighting of the influence factors on the efficient inventory management ensures the useful information needed to justify managerial decisions, which will lead to a balancedfinancial position and to increased company performance.

  9. Coliform bacteria as indicators of diarrheal risk in household drinking water: systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua S Gruber

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend the use of Escherichia coli (EC or thermotolerant ("fecal" coliforms (FC as indicators of fecal contamination in drinking water. Despite their broad use as measures of water quality, there remains limited evidence for an association between EC or FC and diarrheal illness: a previous review found no evidence for a link between diarrhea and these indicators in household drinking water. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to update the results of the previous review with newly available evidence, to explore differences between EC and FC indicators, and to assess the quality of available evidence. METHODS: We searched major databases using broad terms for household water quality and diarrhea. We extracted study characteristics and relative risks (RR from relevant studies. We pooled RRs using random effects models with inverse variance weighting, and used standard methods to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias. RESULTS: We identified 20 relevant studies; 14 studies provided extractable results for meta-analysis. When combining all studies, we found no association between EC or FC and diarrhea (RR 1.26 [95% CI: 0.98, 1.63]. When analyzing EC and FC separately, we found evidence for an association between diarrhea and EC (RR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37, 1.74] but not FC (RR: 1.07 [95% CI: 0.79, 1.45]. Across all studies, we identified several elements of study design and reporting (e.g., timing of outcome and exposure measurement, accounting for correlated outcomes that could be improved upon in future studies that evaluate the association between drinking water contamination and health. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, based on a review of the published literature, suggest that these two coliform groups have different associations with diarrhea in household drinking water. Our results support the use of EC as a fecal indicator in household drinking water.

  10. Coliform bacteria as indicators of diarrheal risk in household drinking water: systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Joshua S; Ercumen, Ayse; Colford, John M

    2014-01-01

    Current guidelines recommend the use of Escherichia coli (EC) or thermotolerant ("fecal") coliforms (FC) as indicators of fecal contamination in drinking water. Despite their broad use as measures of water quality, there remains limited evidence for an association between EC or FC and diarrheal illness: a previous review found no evidence for a link between diarrhea and these indicators in household drinking water. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to update the results of the previous review with newly available evidence, to explore differences between EC and FC indicators, and to assess the quality of available evidence. We searched major databases using broad terms for household water quality and diarrhea. We extracted study characteristics and relative risks (RR) from relevant studies. We pooled RRs using random effects models with inverse variance weighting, and used standard methods to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias. We identified 20 relevant studies; 14 studies provided extractable results for meta-analysis. When combining all studies, we found no association between EC or FC and diarrhea (RR 1.26 [95% CI: 0.98, 1.63]). When analyzing EC and FC separately, we found evidence for an association between diarrhea and EC (RR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37, 1.74]) but not FC (RR: 1.07 [95% CI: 0.79, 1.45]). Across all studies, we identified several elements of study design and reporting (e.g., timing of outcome and exposure measurement, accounting for correlated outcomes) that could be improved upon in future studies that evaluate the association between drinking water contamination and health. Our findings, based on a review of the published literature, suggest that these two coliform groups have different associations with diarrhea in household drinking water. Our results support the use of EC as a fecal indicator in household drinking water.

  11. Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

    2011-04-01

    We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

  12. Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-04-01

    We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

  13. Modeling Agricultural Crop Production in China using AVHRR-based Vegetation Health Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Kogan, F.; Guo, W.; Zhiyuan, P.; Xianfeng, J.

    Weather related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers On a wider scale it has always influenced decision of Governments traders and other policy makers for the purpose of balanced food supplies trade and distribution of aid to the nations in need Therefore national policy and decision makers are giving increasing importance to early assessment of crop losses in response to weather fluctuations This presentation emphasizes utility of AVHRR-based Vegetation health index VHI for early warning of drought-related losses of agricultural production in China The VHI is a three-channel index characterizing greenness vigor and temperature of land surface which can be used as proxy for estimation of how healthy and potentially productive could be vegetation China is the largest in the world producer of grain including wheat and rice and cotton In the major agricultural areas China s crop production is very dependent on weather The VHI being a proxy indicator of weather impact on vegetation showed some correlation with productivity of agricultural crops during the critical period of their development The periods of the strongest correlation were investigated and used to build regression models where crop yield deviation from technological trend was accepted as a dependent and VHI as independent variables The models were developed for several major crops including wheat corn and soybeans

  14. Mapping crop evapotranspiration by integrating vegetation indices into a soil water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consoli, Simona; Vanella, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    The approach combines the basal crop coefficient (Kcb) derived from vegetation indices (VIs) with the daily soil water balance, as proposed in the FAO-56 paper, to estimate daily crop evapotranspiration (ETc) rates of orange trees. The reliability of the approach to detect water stress was also assessed. VIs were simultaneously retrieved from WorldView-2 imagery and hyper-spectral data collected in the field for comparison. ETc estimated were analysed at the light of independent measurements of the same fluxes by an eddy covariance (EC) system located in the study area. The soil water depletion in the root zone of the crop simulated by the model was also validated by using an in situ soil water monitoring. Average overestimate of daily ETc of 6% was obtained from the proposed approach with respect to EC measurements, evidencing a quite satisfactory agreement between data. The model also detected several periods of light stress for the crop under study, corresponding to an increase of the root zone water deficit matching quite well the in situ soil water monitoring. The overall outcomes of this study showed that the FAO-56 approach with remote sensing-derived basal crop coefficient can have the potential to be applied for estimating crop water requirements and enhancing water management strategies in agricultural contexts.

  15. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2002-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures.Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives re

  16. Disinfection of model indicator organisms in a drinking water pilot plant by using PEROXONE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R L; Stewart, M H; Liang, S; McGuire, M J

    1989-09-01

    PEROXONE is an advanced oxidation process generated by combining ozone and hydrogen peroxide. This process stimulates the production of hydroxyl radicals, which have been shown to be superior to ozone for the destruction of some organic contaminants. In this study, pilot-scale experiments were conducted to evaluate the microbicidal effectiveness of PEROXONE and ozone against three model indicator groups. Escherichia coli and MS2 coliphage were seeded into the influent to the preozonation contactors of a pilot plant simulating conventional water treatment and were exposed to four ozone dosages (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 4.0 mg/liter), four hydrogen peroxide/ozone (H2O2/O3) weight ratios (0, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8), and four contact times (4, 5, 12, and 16 min) in two source waters--Colorado River water and state project water--of different quality. The removal of heterotrophic plate count bacteria was also monitored. Results of the study indicated that the microbicidal activity of PEROXONE was greatly affected by the applied ozone dose, H2O2/O3 ratio, contact time, source water quality, and type of microorganism tested. At contact times of 5 min or less, ozone alone was a more potent bactericide than PEROXONE at all H2O2/O3 ratios tested. However, this decrease in the bactericidal potency of PEROXONE was dramatic only as the H2O2/O3 ratio was increased from 0.5 to 0.8. The fact that the bactericidal activity of PEROXONE generally decreased with increasing H2O2/O3 ratios was thought to be related to the lower ozone residuals produced. The viricidal activity of PEROXONE and ozone was comparable at all of the H2O2/O3 ratios. Heterotrophic plate count bacteria were the most resistant group of organisms. Greater inactivation of E. coli and MS2 was observed in Colorado River water than in state project water and appeared to result from differences in the turbidity and alkalinity of the two waters. Regardless of source water, greater than 4.5 log10 of E. coli and MS2 was inactivated

  17. Mathematical analysis of a muscle architecture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navallas, Javier; Malanda, Armando; Gila, Luis; Rodríguez, Javier; Rodríguez, Ignacio

    2009-01-01

    Modeling of muscle architecture, which aims to recreate mathematically the physiological structure of the muscle fibers and motor units, is a powerful tool for understanding and modeling the mechanical and electrical behavior of the muscle. Most of the published models are presented in the form of algorithms, without mathematical analysis of mechanisms or outcomes of the model. Through the study of the muscle architecture model proposed by Stashuk, we present the analytical tools needed to better understand these models. We provide a statistical description for the spatial relations between motor units and muscle fibers. We are particularly concerned with two physiological quantities: the motor unit fiber number, which we expect to be proportional to the motor unit territory area; and the motor unit fiber density, which we expect to be constant for all motor units. Our results indicate that the Stashuk model is in good agreement with the physiological evidence in terms of the expectations outlined above. However, the resulting variance is very high. In addition, a considerable 'edge effect' is present in the outer zone of the muscle cross-section, making the properties of the motor units dependent on their location. This effect is relevant when motor unit territories and muscle cross-section are of similar size.

  18. A real-time recording model of key indicators for energy consumption and carbon emissions of sustainable buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Weiwei; Yang, Huanjia; Chew, David; Hou, Yanhong; Li, Qiming

    2014-05-14

    Buildings' sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability.

  19. Associating ecosystem service losses with indicators of toxicity in habitat equivalency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacela, Dave; Lipton, Joshua; Beltman, Douglas; Hansen, James; Wolotira, Robert

    2005-03-01

    Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

  20. Evidence from a large-scale meta-analysis indicates eczema reduces the incidence of glioma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chao; Dong, Jing; Chu, Yudong; He, Guijuan; Xu, Zhiwei

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between eczema and the risk of primary glioma. Relevant studies were selected through electronic searches of PubMed and EMBASE. A meta-analysis of 12 case-control studies and one cohort study was performed. A fixed effect model was applied to analyze 13 studies consisting of 10,897 glioma cases and 56,081 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to assess the strength of the associations. The data demonstrate that eczema significantly reduces the risk of glioma (OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.61–0.78, P < 0.001). Additional studies with larger patient cohorts are required to validate our findings. PMID:27566584

  1. Multi-trait BLUP model indicates sorghum hybrids with genetic potential for agronomic and nutritional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida Filho, J E; Tardin, F D; Guimarães, J F R; Resende, M D V; Silva, F F; Simeone, M L; Menezes, C B; Queiroz, V A V

    2016-02-26

    The breeding of sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, aimed at improving its nutritional quality, is of great interest, since it can be used as a highly nutritive alternative food source and can possibly be cultivated in regions with low rainfall. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the potential and genetic diversity of grain-sorghum hybrids for traits of agronomic and nutritional interest. To this end, the traits grain yield and flowering, and concentrations of protein, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, iron, manganese, and zinc in the grain were evaluated in 25 grain-sorghum hybrids, comprising 18 experimental hybrids of Embrapa Milho e Sorgo and seven commercial hybrids. The genetic potential was analyzed by a multi-trait best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model, and cluster analysis was accomplished by squared Mahalanobis distance using the predicted genotypic values. Hybrids 0306037 and 0306034 stood out in the agronomic evaluation. The hybrids with agronomic prominence, however, did not stand out for the traits related to the nutritional quality of the grain. Three clusters were formed from the dendrogram obtained with the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean method. From the results of the genotypic BLUP and the analysis of the dendrogram, hybrids 0577337, 0441347, 0307651, and 0306037 were identified as having the potential to establish a population that can aggregate alleles for all the evaluated traits of interest.

  2. Mathematical models of functioning and allocation indicators of road-transport complex resources in the fuel and raw materials region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyvis, V. A.; Novichikhin, A. V.; Temlyantsev, M. V.

    2017-09-01

    A number of features of coal industry functioning was determined for the conditions of Kemerovo region, and the specifics of planning and organization of coal transportation were revealed. The analysis of indicators of motor and railway types of transport in the process of coal transportation was executed. The necessity of improving the tools of coal products transportation in the modern conditions is substantiated. Specific features of functioning of a road-transport complex in the fuel and raw material region (on the example of Kemerovo region) are determined. The modern scientific and applied problems of functioning and allocation of the road-transport complex resources are identified. To justify the management decisions on the development and improvement of road-transport complex a set of indicators are proposed: infrastructural, transportation performance, operating, social and economic. Mathematical models of indicators are recommended for formulation and justification of decisions made during operational and strategic planning of development, evaluation and development of algorithms of functioning and allocation of road-transport sector in Kemerovo region in the future.

  3. Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Güdemann, Matthias; 10.4204/EPTCS.28.8

    2010-01-01

    Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of proba...

  4. Hybrid sentiment analysis utilizing multiple indicators to determine temporal shifts of opinion in OSNs

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Joshua S.; Hall, Robert T.; Fields, Jeremy; White, Holly M.

    2016-05-01

    Utilization of traditional sentiment analysis for predicting the outcome of an event on a social network depends on: precise understanding of what topics relate to the event, selective elimination of trends that don't fit, and in most cases, expert knowledge of major players of the event. Sentiment analysis has traditionally taken one of two approaches to derive a quantitative value from qualitative text. These approaches include the bag of words model", and the usage of "NLP" to attempt a real understanding of the text. Each of these methods yield very similar accuracy results with the exception of some special use cases. To do so, however, they both impose a large computational burden on the analytic system. Newer approaches have this same problem. No matter what approach is used, SA typically caps out around 80% in accuracy. However, accuracy is the result of both polarity and degree of polarity, nothing else. In this paper we present a method for hybridizing traditional SA methods to better determine shifts in opinion over time within social networks. This hybridization process involves augmenting traditional SA measurements with contextual understanding, and knowledge about writers' demographics. Our goal is to not only to improve accuracy, but to do so with minimal impact to computation requirements.

  5. Disinfection of model indicator organisms in a drinking water pilot plant by using PEROXONE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, R.L.; Stewart, M.H.; Liang, S.; McGuire, M.J. (Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, La Verne (USA))

    1989-09-01

    PEROXONE is an advanced oxidation process generated by combining ozone and hydrogen peroxide. This process stimulates the production of hydroxyl radicals, which have been shown to be superior to ozone for the destruction of some organic contaminants. In this study, pilot-scale experiments were conducted to evaluate the microbicidal effectiveness of PEROXONE and ozone against three model indicator groups. Escherichia coli and MS2 coliphage were seeded into the influent to the preozonation contactors of a pilot plant simulating conventional water treatment and were exposed to four ozone dosages, four hydrogen peroxide/ozone weight ratios, and four contact times in two source waters--Colorado River water and state project water--of different quality. The removal of heterotrophic plate count bacteria was also monitored. Results of the study indicated that the microbicidal activity of PEROXONE was greatly affected by the applied ozone dose, H2O2/O3 ratio, contact time, source water quality, and type of microorganism tested. At contact times of 5 min or less, ozone alone was a more potent bactericide than PEROXONE at all H2O2/O3 ratios tested. However, this decrease in the bactericidal potency of PEROXONE was dramatic only as the H2O2/O3 ratio was increased from 0.5 to 0.8. The fact that the bactericidal activity of PEROXONE generally decreased with increasing H2O2/O3 ratios was thought to be related to the lower ozone residuals produced. The viricidal activity of PEROXONE and ozone was comparable at all of the H2O2/O3 ratios. Heterotrophic plate count bacteria were the most resistant group of organisms. Greater inactivation of E. coli and MS2 was observed in Colorado River water than in state project water and appeared to result from differences in the turbidity and alkalinity of the two waters. Regardless of source water, greater than 4.5 log10 of E.

  6. Integrated conceptual ecological model and habitat indices for the southwest Florida coastal wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, Georgiana L.; Lorenz, J. L.

    2014-01-01

    The coastal wetlands of southwest Florida that extend from Charlotte Harbor south to Cape Sable, contain more than 60,000 ha of mangroves and 22,177 ha of salt marsh. These coastal wetlands form a transition zone between the freshwater and marine environments of the South Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem (SFCME). The coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services that are valued by society and thus are important to the economy of the state. Species from throughout the region spend part of their life cycle in the coastal wetlands, including many marine and coastal-dependent species, making this zone critical to the ecosystem health of the Everglades and the SFCME. However, the coastal wetlands are increasingly vulnerable due to rising sea level, changes in storm intensity and frequency, land use, and water management practices. They are at the boundary of the region covered by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and thus are impacted by both CERP and marine resource management decisions. An integrated conceptual ecological model (ICEM) for the southwest coastal wetlands of Florida was developed that illustrates the linkages between drivers, pressures, ecological process, and ecosystem services. Five ecological indicators are presented: (1) mangrove community structure and spatial extent; (2) waterbirds; (3) prey-base fish and macroinvertebrates; (4) crocodilians; and (5) periphyton. Most of these indicators are already used in other areas of south Florida and the SFCME, and therefore will allow metrics from the coastal wetlands to be used in system-wide assessments that incorporate the entire Greater Everglades Ecosystem.

  7. Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

    2010-05-01

    Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant

  8. A methodological proposal for quantifying environmental compensation through the spatial analysis of vulnerability indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Enrique Torresan

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to propose a methodology for quantifying the environmental compensation through the spatial analysis of vulnerability indicators. A case study was applied for the analysis of sand extraction enterprises, in the region of Descalvado and Analândia, inland of São Paulo State, Brazil. Environmental vulnerability scores were attributed for the indicators related to erosion, hydrological resources and biodiversity loss. This methodological proposal allowed analyzing the local alternatives of certain enterprise with the objective of reducing impacts and at the same time reducing the costs of environmental compensation. The application of the methodology significantly reduced the subjectivity degree usually associated to the most of the methodologies of impact evaluation.O termo compensação ambiental refere-se à obrigação do empreendedor em apoiar a implantação e manutenção de Unidades de Conservação, aplicável a empreendimentos de significativo impacto ambiental, de acordo com a Lei 9.986/2000. Esta lei estabelece que o volume de recursos a ser aplicado pelo empreendedor deve ser de no mínimo 0,5% dos custos totais previstos para a implantação do empreendimento, sendo que este percentual deve ser fixado pelo órgão ambiental competente, de acordo com o grau de impacto ambiental. Sendo assim, o presente artigo tem o objetivo de propor uma metodologia para quantificação da compensação ambiental através da análise espacial de indicadores de vulnerabilidade ambiental. A proposta foi aplicada através de um estudo de caso em empreendimentos de mineração de areia, na região de Descalvado/Analândia, interior do Estado de São Paulo. Índices de vulnerabilidade ambiental foram atribuídos a indicadores de impactos relacionados à erosão, recursos hídricos e perda de biodiversidade. Esta metodologia representa importante instrumento de planejamento ambiental e econômico, podendo ser adaptada a diversos

  9. Waste indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall, O.; Lassen, C.; Hansen, E. [Cowi A/S, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    The Waste Indicator Project focuses on methods to evaluate the efficiency of waste management. The project proposes the use of three indicators for resource consumption, primary energy and landfill requirements, based on the life-cycle principles applied in the EDIP Project. Trial runs are made With the indicators on paper, glass packaging and aluminium, and two models are identified for mapping the Danish waste management, of which the least extensive focuses on real and potential savings. (au)

  10. Analysis on Indications and Causes of Cesarean Section on Pemba Island of Zanzibar in Africa

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Liping; Zubeir TS; Hamida SA

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To explore and analyze the indications and causes of cesarean section on Pemba island of Zanzibar in Africa to improve the quality of obstetrics. Methods: 564 patients performed cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba from January, 2008 to December, 2011 were selected, and statistics was conducted by the method of retrospective analysis. Results: The rate of cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba was 10.01%. The primary causes of cesarean section included cephalopelvic disproportion (27.13%), scar uterus (23.40%), preeclampsia and eclampsia (13.30%), fetal distress in uterus (9.40%), fetal factors (9.75%) and complication of pregnancy (6.91%). Conclusion: Cesarean section plays a great role in the treatment of dystocia, some complications of pregnancy and reducing the mortality of pregnant women and perinatal infants, but in the area with relatively undeveloped medical conditions in Africa, cesarean section still takes great risks. Unnecessary cesarean section cannot reduce the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal morbidity. The local medical staff should improve the midwifery technique, establish and perfect the formal antenatal examination system to improve the quality of maternity.

  11. Psychometric analysis of the Salutogenic Health Indicator Scale (SHIS) in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmy, Pernilla; Berg, Agneta; Clausson, Eva K; Hagell, Peter; Jakobsson, Ulf

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this study was to test the psychometric properties of the Salutogenic Health Indicator Scale (SHIS) in an adolescent population. The investigation was performed among Swedish students aged 13-15 years ( n = 817; 58% girls). The SHIS was assessed for respondent acceptability, and its psychometric properties were evaluated according to classical test theory (regarding unidimensionality, targeting, reliability, and external construct validity). The adolescents found it easy to complete the questionnaire, which was completed in an average of 4 minutes. Exploratory factor analysis, which is based on polychoric correlations, identified one factor, supporting the instrument's unidimensionality. Floor/ceiling effects were ⩽ 3.3%. Reliability estimates yielded a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.93; the test-retest reliability ( n = 50; 2-week interval) coefficients were 0.89 for the total SHIS score and 0.52-0.79 for item scores. Spearman correlations with other variables were based on a priori expectations (self-rated general health, 0.595; depressive symptoms, -0.773; anxiety, -0.577; and sleep problems, 0.519). Our observations support both the acceptability and the psychometric properties of the SHIS as a brief, unidimensional assessment tool for salutogenic health in adolescents. Further studies using modern test theory are needed to better understand the measurement properties of the SHIS, including the functioning of its response categories and its comparability between adolescents and adults.

  12. Are lung cysts in renal cell cancer (RCC) patients an indication for FLCN mutation analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannesma, Paul C; Houweling, Arjan C; Menko, Fred H; van de Beek, I; Reinhard, Rinze; Gille, Johan J P; van Waesberghe, JanHein T M; Thunnissen, Erik; Starink, Theo M; Postmus, Pieter E; van Moorselaar, R Jeroen A

    2016-04-01

    Renal cell cancer (RCC) represents 2-3% of all cancers and is the most lethal of the urologic malignancies, in a minority of cases caused by a genetic predisposition. Birt-Hogg-Dubé syndrome (BHD) is one of the hereditary renal cancer syndromes. As the histological subtype and clinical presentation in BHD are highly variable, this syndrome is easily missed. Lung cysts--mainly under the main carina--are reported to be present in over 90% of all BHD patients and might be an important clue in differentiating between sporadic RCC and BHD associated RCC. We conducted a retrospective study among patients diagnosed with sporadic RCC, wherein we retrospectively scored for the presence of lung cysts on thoracic CT. We performed FLCN mutation analysis in 8 RCC patients with at least one lung cysts under the carina. No mutations were identified. We compared the radiological findings in the FLCN negative patients to those in 4 known BHD patients and found multiple basal lung cysts were present significantly more frequent in FLCN mutation carriers and may be an indication for BHD syndrome in apparent sporadic RCC patients.

  13. Passive Noise Analysis for Advanced Tamper Indication. End of Year Report 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Benjamin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sanders, Jeff [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); West, James [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Svoboda, John [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is part of a multi-lab project assessing front-end electronics for unattended measurement (FEUM) being developed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unattended systems. The FEUM development activity provides an opportunity to address tampering detection between FEUM and the detector, signal integrity from FEUM to the data acquisition systems, and data validity – long-standing challenges for the IAEA. This report summarizes the INL activities in Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 to characterize and test passive noise analysis as a potential tamper-indicating approach for implementation into FEUM or as a stand-alone method. The project’s primary objectives in FY-15 were to (1) determine detectable tamper scenarios using four pre-amplifier/detector systems, (2) perform tests of tampering scenarios with three common cable types used by the IAEA, (3) separate radio-frequency-induced events from inherent effect by means of an anechoic chamber, and (4) perform tests at an industrial facility. General conclusions were reached in several areas.

  14. Metatranscriptome analysis of the reef-building coral Orbicella faveolata indicates holobiont response to coral disease

    KAUST Repository

    Daniels, Camille Arian

    2015-09-11

    White Plague Disease (WPD) is implicated in coral reef decline in the Caribbean and is characterized by microbial community shifts in coral mucus and tissue. Studies thus far have focused on assessing microbial communities or the identification of specific pathogens, yet few have addressed holobiont response across metaorganism compartments in coral disease. Here, we report on the first metatranscriptomic assessment of the coral host, algal symbiont, and microbial compartment in order to survey holobiont structure and function in healthy and diseased samples from Orbicella faveolata collected at reef sites off Puerto Rico. Our data indicate holobiont-wide as well as compartment-specific responses to WPD. Gene expression changes in the diseased coral host involved proteins playing a role in innate immunity, cytoskeletal integrity, cell adhesion, oxidative stress, chemical defense, and retroelements. In contrast, the algal symbiont showed comparatively few expression changes, but of large magnitude, of genes related to stress, photosynthesis, and metal transport. Concordant with the coral host response, the bacterial compartment showed increased abundance of heat shock proteins, genes related to oxidative stress, DNA repair, and potential retroelement activity. Importantly, analysis of the expressed bacterial gene functions establishes the participation of multiple bacterial families in WPD pathogenesis and also suggests a possible involvement of viruses and/or phages in structuring the bacterial assemblage. In this study, we implement an experimental approach to partition the coral holobiont and resolve compartment- and taxa-specific responses in order to understand metaorganism function in coral disease.

  15. Metatranscriptome analysis of the reef-buidling coral Orbicella faveolata indicates holobiont response to coral disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille eDaniels

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available White Plague Disease (WPD is implicated in coral reef decline in the Caribbean and is characterized by microbial community shifts in coral mucus and tissue. Studies thus far have focused on assessing microbial communities or the identification of specific pathogens, yet few have addressed holobiont response across metaorganism compartments in coral disease. Here, we report on the first metatranscriptomic assessment of the coral host, algal symbiont, and microbial compartment in order to survey holobiont structure and function in healthy and diseased samples from Orbicella faveolata collected at reef sites off Puerto Rico. Our data indicate metaorganism-wide as well as compartment-specific responses to WPD. Gene expression changes in the diseased coral host involved proteins playing a role in innate immunity, cytoskeletal integrity, cell adhesion, oxidative stress, chemical defense, and retroelements. In contrast, the algal symbiont showed comparatively few expression changes, but of large magnitude, of genes related to stress, photosynthesis, and metal transport. Concordant with the coral host response, the bacterial compartment showed increased abundance of heat shock proteins, genes related to oxidative stress, DNA repair, and potential retroelement activity. Importantly, analysis of the expressed bacterial gene functions establishes the participation of multiple bacterial families in WPD pathogenesis and also suggests a possible involvement of viruses and/or phages in structuring the bacterial assemblage. In this study, we implement an experimental approach to partition the coral holobiont and resolve compartment- and taxa-specific responses in order to understand metaorganism function in coral disease.

  16. Proteomic analysis of renal calculi indicates an important role for inflammatory processes in calcium stone formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Michael L; Cummins, Timothy D; Wilkey, Daniel W; Salyer, Sarah A; Powell, David W; Klein, Jon B; Lederer, Eleanor D

    2008-10-01

    Even though renal stones/calculi occur in approximately 10% of individuals, they are an enormous economic burden to the entire US health system. While the relative metabolic composition of renal calculi is generally known, there is no clear understanding of the genetics of renal stone formation, nor are there clear prognostic indicators of renal stone formation. The application of proteomics to the analysis of renal calculi axiomatically holds that insight into renal stone pathobiology can be gained by a more comprehensive understanding of renal calculus protein composition. We analyzed isolated renal stone matrix proteins with mass spectrometric and immunohistochemical methods identifying 158 proteins with high confidence, including 28 common proteins. The abundant proteins included those identified previously in stones and proteins identified here for the first time, such as myeloid lineage-specific, integral membrane and lipid regulatory proteins. Pathway analyses of all proteins identified suggested that a significant fraction of the most abundant matrix proteins participate in inflammatory processes. These proteomic results support the hypothesis that stone formation induces a cellular inflammatory response and the protein components of this response contribute to the abundant stone matrix proteome.

  17. Analysis on Indications and Causes of Cesarean Section on Pemba Island of Zanzibar in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore and analyze the indications and causes of cesarean section on Pemba island of Zanzibar in Africa to improve the quality of obstetrics. Methods: 564 patients performed cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba from January, 2008 to December, 2011 were selected, and statistics was conducted by the method of retrospective analysis. Results: The rate of cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba was 10.01%. The primary causes of cesarean section included cephalopelvic disproportion (27.13%, scar uterus (23.40%, preeclampsia and eclampsia (13.30%, fetal distress in uterus (9.40%, fetal factors (9.75% and complication of pregnancy (6.91%. Conclusion: Cesarean section plays a great role in the treatment of dystocia, some complications of pregnancy and reducing the mortality of pregnant women and perinatal infants, but in the area with relatively undeveloped medical conditions in Africa, cesarean section still takes great risks. Unnecessary cesarean section cannot reduce the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal morbidity. The local medical staff should improve the midwifery technique, establish and perfect the formal antenatal examination system to improve the quality of maternity.

  18. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  19. Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The motivation behind this research is to innovatively combine new methods like wavelet, principal component analysis (PCA), and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches to analyze trade in today’s increasingly difficult and volatile financial futures markets. The main focus of this study is to facilitate forecasting by using an enhanced denoising process on market data, taken as a multivariate signal, in order to deduct the same noise from the open-high-low-close signal of a market. This research offers evidence on the predictive ability and the profitability of abnormal returns of a new hybrid forecasting model using Wavelet-PCA denoising and ANN (named WPCA-NN) on futures contracts of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures, Japan’s NIKKEI 225 futures, Singapore’s MSCI futures, South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures, and Taiwan’s TAIEX futures from 2005 to 2014. Using a host of technical analysis indicators consisting of RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, Stochastic Fast %K, Stochastic Slow %K, Stochastic %D, and Ultimate Oscillator, empirical results show that the annual mean returns of WPCA-NN are more than the threshold buy-and-hold for the validation, test, and evaluation periods; this is inconsistent with the traditional random walk hypothesis, which insists that mechanical rules cannot outperform the threshold buy-and-hold. The findings, however, are consistent with literature that advocates technical analysis. PMID:27248692

  20. Early indication of noise-induced hearing loss from PMP use in adolescents: A cross-sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana C Colon

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs may indicate preclinical noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL in adolescents from unsafe personal music player (PMP use. Aims: The objective, therefore, was to observe preclinical signs of NIHL in 9th grade adolescents with clinically normal hearing by comparing DPOAE signals between different levels of A-weighted equivalent PMP exposure. Settings and Design: Subjects were recruited from all secondary-level schools located in the city of Regensburg, Germany during two academic years 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Subjects and Methods: A-weighted equivalent sound pressure levels (SPLs for a 40-hour work week (LAeq,40h were estimated from questionnaire responses on output and duration of PMP use of the previous week. Subjects were then categorized into four levels of exposure: 85 to <90, and ≥90 A-weighted Decibel [dB(A]. DPOAE signals were collected by trained audiological staff, applying a standard optimized protocol, at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology of the University Hospital Regensburg. Statistical Analysis Used: Mean DPOAE signals were compared between levels by unpaired t test. Novel linear regression models adjusting for other leisure noise exposures and with outcome variables DPoutcome and 4 kilo Hertz (kHz DPOAEs estimated effects between levels. Results: A total of 1468 subjects (56% female, mostly aged 15 or 16 years were available for analysis. Comparison of DPOAE means by PMP exposure typically showed no greater than 1 dB difference between groups. In fact, comparisons between ≥90 dB(A and <80 dB(A presented the least differences in magnitude. Both DPoutcome and 4 kHz linear regression models presented a weak association with the 4-level PMP exposure variable. An expected dose-response to PMP exposure was not observed in any analyses. Conclusions: DPOAE signal strength alone cannot indicate preclinical NIHL in adolescents.

  1. URBAN TREE CROWN PROJECTION AREA MAPPING WITH OBJECT BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS FOR URBAN ECOSYSTEM SERVICE INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAKÁCS ÁGNES

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The continuous expansion of built-up areas in the urban environment at the expense of green spaces brings up numerous environmental problems, for which accurate and efficient solutions should be found. The assessment of ecosystem services developed within the field of landscape ecology is playing an ever more important role in environmental sciences and thus may offer suitable answers. Such assessments can be carried out by developing indicators. Accordingly, in the case of urban trees, an accurate quantitative characterization of their services (such as e.g. carbon sequestration, pollutant removal and microclimate regulation is also needed. The aim of this study is to establish a generally applicable method based on indicator development, using widely available data. In the case of urban green spaces there are several services for which the development of proper indicators and evaluation methods requires a delineation of tree crowns, or at least the crown projection area. Accordingly, in our work, we map the crown projection area of a large and popular urban park of Szeged, Széchenyi square, using object-based image analysis on UltraCamD digital orthophotos. Following a multiresolution segmentation the classification of the resulting objects was carried out, using the eCognition image analysis software. Besides fulfilling the policy objectives related to the evaluation of urban ecosystem services, the produced crown base can also be used in several other types of urban ecological and urban climatological studies (e.g. urban climate modelling, human-comfort assessment. In this paper the first results are presented.

  2. Phylogenetic analysis with multiple markers indicates repeated loss of the adult medusa stage in Campanulariidae (Hydrozoa, Cnidaria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindarajan, Annette F; Boero, Ferdinando; Halanych, Kenneth M

    2006-03-01

    The Campanulariidae is a group of leptomedusan hydroids (Hydrozoa, Cnidaria) that exhibit a diverse array of life cycles ranging from species with a free medusa stage to those with a reduced or absent medusa stage. Perhaps the best-known member of the taxon is Obelia which is often used as a textbook model of hydrozoan life history. However, Obelia medusae have several unique features leading to a hypothesis that Obelia arose, in a saltational fashion, from an ancestor that lacked a medusa, possibly representing an example of a rare evolutionary reversal. To address the evolution of adult sexual stages in Campanulariidae, a molecular phylogenetic approach was employed using two nuclear (18S rDNA and calmodulin) and two mitochondrial (16S rDNA and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I) genes. Prior to the main analysis, we conducted a preliminary analysis of leptomedusan taxa which suggests that Campanulariidae as presently considered needs to be redefined. Campanulariid analyses are consistent with morphological understanding in that three major clades are recovered. However, several recognized genera are not monophyletic calling into question some "diagnostic" features. Furthermore, ancestral states were reconstructed using parsimony, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate possible evolutionary transitions in life-history stages. The results indicate that life-cycle transitions have occurred multiple times, and that Obelia might be derived from an ancestor with Clytia-like features.

  3. West African monsoon intraseasonal activity and its daily precipitation indices in regional climate models: diagnostics and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Dueymes, G.; Diaconescu, E.; Laprise, R.; Seidou Sanda, I.

    2016-11-01

    The West African monsoon intraseasonal variability has huge socio-economic impacts on local populations but understanding and predicting it still remains a challenge for the weather prediction and climate scientific community. This paper analyses an ensemble of simulations from six regional climate models (RCMs) taking part in the coordinated regional downscaling experiment, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) and three satellite-based and observationally-constrained daily precipitation datasets, to assess the performance of the RCMs with regard to the intraseasonal variability. A joint analysis of seasonal-mean precipitation and the total column water vapor (also called precipitable water— PW) suggests the existence of important links at different timescales between these two variables over the Sahel and highlights the relevance of using PW to follow the monsoon seasonal cycle. RCMs that fail to represent the seasonal-mean position and amplitude of the meridional gradient of PW show the largest discrepancies with respect to seasonal-mean observed precipitation. For both ERAI and RCMs, spectral decompositions of daily PW as well as rainfall show an overestimation of low-frequency activity (at timescales longer than 10 days) at the expense of the synoptic (timescales shorter than 10 days) activity. Consequently, the effects of the African Easterly Waves and the associated mesoscale convective systems are substantially underestimated, especially over continental regions. Finally, the study investigates the skill of the models with respect to hydro-climatic indices related to the occurrence, intensity and frequency of precipitation events at the intraseasonal scale. Although most of these indices are generally better reproduced with RCMs than reanalysis products, this study indicates that RCMs still need to be improved (especially with respect to their subgrid-scale parameterization schemes) to be able to reproduce the intraseasonal variance spectrum adequately.

  4. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model. Part 1

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    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green GDP representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green GDP. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the economic development of Russia and the

  5. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model Part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green gross domestic product representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green gross domestic product. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the

  6. NCA-LDAS: A Terrestrial Water Analysis System Enabling Sustained Assessment and Dissemination of National Climate Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasinski, M. F.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Beaudoing, H. K.; Bolten, J. D.; Borak, J.; Kempler, S.; Li, B.; Mocko, D. M.; Rodell, M.; Rui, H.; Silberstein, D. S.; Teng, W. L.; Vollmer, B.

    2016-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System, or NCA-LDAS, is an integrated terrestrial water analysis system created as an end-to-end enabling tool for sustained assessment and dissemination of terrestrial hydrologic indicators in support of the NCA. The primary features are i) gridded, daily time series of over forty hydrologic variables including terrestrial water and energy balance stores, states and fluxes over the continental U.S. derived from land surface modeling with multivariate satellite data record assimilation (1979-2015), ii) estimated trends of the principal water balance components over a wide range of scales and locations, and iii) public dissemination of all NCA-LDAS model forcings, and input and output data products through dedicated NCA-LDAS and NASA GES-DISC websites. NCA-LDAS supports sustained assessment of our national terrestrial hydrologic climate for improved scientific understanding, and the adaptation and management of water resources and related energy sectors. This presentation provides an overview of the NCA-LDAS system together with an evaluation of the initial release of NCA-LDAS data products and trends using two land surface models; Noah Ver. 3.3 and Catchment Ver. Fortuna 2.5, and a listing of several available pathways for public access and visualization of NCA-LDAS background information and data products.

  7. Multi-Analytical Approach Reveals Potential Microbial Indicators in Soil for Sugarcane Model Systems.

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    Acacio Aparecido Navarrete

    Full Text Available This study focused on the effects of organic and inorganic amendments and straw retention on the microbial biomass (MB and taxonomic groups of bacteria in sugarcane-cultivated soils in a greenhouse mesocosm experiment monitored for gas emissions and chemical factors. The experiment consisted of combinations of synthetic nitrogen (N, vinasse (V; a liquid waste from ethanol production, and sugarcane-straw blankets. Increases in CO2-C and N2O-N emissions were identified shortly after the addition of both N and V to the soils, thus increasing MB nitrogen (MB-N and decreasing MB carbon (MB-C in the N+V-amended soils and altering soil chemical factors that were correlated with the MB. Across 57 soil metagenomic datasets, Actinobacteria (31.5%, Planctomycetes (12.3%, Deltaproteobacteria (12.3%, Alphaproteobacteria (12.0% and Betaproteobacteria (11.1% were the most dominant bacterial groups during the experiment. Differences in relative abundance of metagenomic sequences were mainly revealed for Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia with regard to N+V fertilization and straw retention. Differential abundances in bacterial groups were confirmed using 16S rRNA gene-targeted phylum-specific primers for real-time PCR analysis in all soil samples, whose results were in accordance with sequence data, except for Gammaproteobacteria. Actinobacteria were more responsive to straw retention with Rubrobacterales, Bifidobacteriales and Actinomycetales related to the chemical factors of N+V-amended soils. Acidobacteria subgroup 7 and Opitutae, a verrucomicrobial class, were related to the chemical factors of soils without straw retention as a surface blanket. Taken together, the results showed that MB-C and MB-N responded to changes in soil chemical factors and CO2-C and N2O-N emissions, especially for N+V-amended soils. The results also indicated that several taxonomic groups of bacteria, such as Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and

  8. Analysis of epidemiological indices of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the adult population of Moscow

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    Marina Fedorovna Kalashnikova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes mellitus is a disease that presents a global medical problem. It is necessary to implement an in-depth analysis of the epidemiological situation of type 2 diabetes mellitus for planning and organizing specialized medical help to patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.AimTo rate the basic epidemiological indices of type 2 diabetes mellitus in actual clinical practice using the informational database of national registry of diabetic patients.Materials and methodsEpidemiological analyses were performed in two administrative districts of Moscow. From 1999 to 2011 48978 adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were aged 18 years and older were registered. We used methods of clinical, analytical and statistical epidemiology with elements of descriptive research.ResultsThe prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 1590 per hundred thousand, most patients were in the 60–64 and 70–74 age groups, and approximately 80% of patients were older than 55 years. The morbidity rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 138,72 per hundred thousand and was found to be higher in women at 1,89. The mortality rate of adult patients with diabetes mellitus was 0,83, mostly in men of all ages. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for most of the registered cases of deaths (34,4%. The average life expectancy appeared to be 75,24±0,45 years, although women lived 6 years longer than men. The average duration of the disease was 10,04±0,34 years. A total of 0,4% of patients underwent hospital treatment and the average length of treatment was 17–18 days. The total number of days of disablement was an average of 307,33±30,13 days (80% of patients were older than 55 years. In the study group, a mean grade of НbА1c <7% was observed in 56,6% of patients. The prevalence rate of detected chronic complications was considerably lower compared to other epidemiological studies.ConclusionsOur epidemiological analyses revealed a number of features and consistent

  9. Analysis of Clinical Indicators of Quality in Patients with Endotracheal intubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Sulochana; Balasubramanian, Sreelatha

    2017-06-01

    Quality and safety in anaesthesia is usually monitored by analysis of perioperative mortality-morbidity and are influenced by anaesthetic and non-anaesthetic factors. This study was conducted to analyse the incidence of clinical indicators of quality in endotracheally intubated patients undergoing general abdominal surgeries and obstetric and gynaecological procedures under general anaesthesia and to determine contributing factors for the same. This retrospective study was conducted at our institute over a period of 12 months and 709 case records of patients were reviewed. Patients aged 14 years and more belonging to all ASA groups undergoing abdominal surgeries for general and obstetric and gynaecological causes under General Anaesthesia (GA) with endotracheal intubation posted for both elective and emergency surgeries were included in the study. Demographic details including name, age, sex, hospital number, height, weight, body mass index, type of surgery, nature of surgery, duration, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) physical status were recorded and presence or absence of clinical indicators of quality (presence of cannot intubate cannot ventilate scenario, occurrence of dental injury, episode of non cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, incidents of residual neuromuscular blockade, existence of aspiration pneumonia, unplanned ICU/HDU admissions, interventions for respiratory/ cardiac arrest, occasions of respiratory distress in the recovery period, occurrence of respiratory arrest within 48 hours and re-intubation) were noted and analysed for all 709 patients. Total 709 patients were analysed in our study. We found that incidence of ICU admission was 1.83% and that of respiratory distress which needed intervention were 0.56%. A total of 0.28% patients needed reintubation. Residual neuromuscular blockade was seen in 0.28% patients. We did not find any case of respiratory and cardiac arrest and also there was no Cannot Ventilate and Cannot Intubate (CVCI

  10. Frequency and risk indicators of tooth decay among pregnant women in France: a cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergnes, Jean-Noel; Kaminski, Monique; Lelong, Nathalie; Musset, Anne-Marie; Sixou, Michel; Nabet, Cathy

    2012-01-01

    Little is known on the prevalence of tooth decay among pregnant women. Better knowledge of tooth decay risk indicators during pregnancy could help to develop follow-up protocols for women at risk, along with better prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth per woman in a large sample of pregnant women in France, and to study associated risk indicators. A secondary cross-sectional analysis of data from a French multicentre case-control study was performed. The sample was composed of 1094 at-term women of six maternity units. A dental examination was carried out within 2 to 4 days post-partum. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were obtained through a standardised interview with the women. Medical characteristics were obtained from the women's medical records. Risk indicators associated with tooth decay were identified using a negative binomial hurdle model. 51.6% of the women had tooth decay. The mean number of decayed teeth among women having at least one was 3.1 (s.d. = 2.8). Having tooth decay was statistically associated with lower age (aOR = 1.58, 95%CI [1.03,2.45]), lower educational level (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI [1.06,2.23]) and dental plaque (aOR = 1.75, 95%CI [1.27,2.41]). The number of decayed teeth was associated with the same risk indicators and with non-French nationality and inadequate prenatal care. The frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth among pregnant women were high. Oral health promotion programmes must continue to inform women and care providers about the importance of dental care before, during and after pregnancy. Future research should also assess the effectiveness of public policies related to oral health in target populations of pregnant women facing challenging social or economic situations.

  11. Trophic position of soil nematodes in boreal forests as indicated by stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudrin, Alexey; Tsurikov, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Despite the well-developed trophic classification of soil nematodes, their position in soil food webs is still little understood. Observed deviations from the typical feeding strategy indicate that a simplified trophic classification probably does not fully reflect actual trophic interactions. Furthermore, the extent and functional significance of nematodes as prey for other soil animals remains unknown. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) is powerful tool for investigating the structure of soil food webs, but its application to the study of soil nematodes has been limited to only a few studies. We used stable isotope analysis to gain a better understanding of trophic links of several groups of soil nematodes in two boreal forests on albeluvisol. We investigated four taxonomic groups of nematodes: Mononchida, Dorylaimida, Plectidae and Tylenchidae (mostly from the genus Filenchus), that according to the conventional trophic classification represent predators, omnivores, bacterivores and root-fungal feeders, respectively. To assess the trophic position of nematodes, we used a comparison against a set of reference species including herbivorous, saprophagous and predatory macro-invertebrates, oribatid and mesostigmatid mites, and collembolans. Our results suggest that trophic position of the investigated groups of soil nematodes generally corresponds to the conventional classification. All nematodes were enriched in 13C relative to Picea abies roots and litter, and mycorrhizal fungal mycelium. Root-fungal feeders Tylenchidae had δ15N values similar to those of earthworms, enchytraeids and Entomobrya collembolans, but slightly lower δ13C values. Bacterivorous Plectidae were either equal or enriched in 15N compared with saprophagous macroinvertebrates and most mesofauna species. Omnivorous Dorylaimida and predatory Mononchida were further enriched in 15N and their isotopic signature was similar to that of predatory arthropods. These data confirm a clear separation of

  12. Identifying Indicators of Progress in Thermal Spray Research Using Bibliometrics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, R.-T.; Khor, K. A.; Yu, L.-G.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the research publications on thermal spray in the period of 1985-2015 using the data from Web of Science, Scopus and SciVal®. Bibliometrics analysis was employed to elucidate the country and institution distribution in various thermal spray research areas and to characterize the trends of topic change and technology progress. Results show that China, USA, Japan, Germany, India and France were the top countries in thermal spray research, and Xi'an Jiaotong University, Universite de Technologie Belfort-Montbeliard, Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, ETH Zurich, National Research Council of Canada, University of Limoges were among the top institutions that had high scholarly research output during 2005-2015. The terms of the titles, keywords and abstracts of the publications were analyzed by the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model and visually mapped using the VOSviewer software to reveal the progress of thermal spray technology. It is found that thermal barrier coating was consistently the main research area in thermal spray, and high-velocity oxy-fuel spray and cold spray developed rapidly in the last 10 years.

  13. Identifying Indicators of Progress in Thermal Spray Research Using Bibliometrics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, R.-T.; Khor, K. A.; Yu, L.-G.

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the research publications on thermal spray in the period of 1985-2015 using the data from Web of Science, Scopus and SciVal®. Bibliometrics analysis was employed to elucidate the country and institution distribution in various thermal spray research areas and to characterize the trends of topic change and technology progress. Results show that China, USA, Japan, Germany, India and France were the top countries in thermal spray research, and Xi'an Jiaotong University, Universite de Technologie Belfort-Montbeliard, Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, ETH Zurich, National Research Council of Canada, University of Limoges were among the top institutions that had high scholarly research output during 2005-2015. The terms of the titles, keywords and abstracts of the publications were analyzed by the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model and visually mapped using the VOSviewer software to reveal the progress of thermal spray technology. It is found that thermal barrier coating was consistently the main research area in thermal spray, and high-velocity oxy-fuel spray and cold spray developed rapidly in the last 10 years.

  14. Atmospheric Propagation Modeling Indicates Homing Pigeons use Loft-Specific Infrasonic 'Map' Cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagstrum, J. T.; Baker, L. M.; Spritzer, J. M.; McKenna, M. H.

    2011-12-01

    Pigeons (Columba livia) released at distant sites commonly depart in directions significantly off the actual homeward bearing. Such site-dependent deviations, or biases, for birds from a given loft are generally stable over time, but can also change from hour to hour, day to day, and year to year. At some release sites, birds consistently vanish in random directions and have longer flight times and lower return rates. Release sites characterized by frequent disorientation are not uncommon for pigeon lofts in both Europe and the USA. One such site is the Jersey Hill fire tower in upstate New York located ~120 km W of the Cornell loft in Ithaca. Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill between 1968 and 1987 almost always vanished randomly, although birds from other lofts had little difficulty orienting there. The results for one day, however, stand out: on August 13, 1969, Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill vanished consistently to the NE (r = 0.921; n=7) and returned home after normal flight times. Cornell pigeons released the next day again showed 'normal' behavior for the site and departed randomly. If, in fact, the birds are using acoustic cues to navigate, the long-term acoustic 'dead' zone we propose for Jersey Hill, due to prevailing atmospheric conditions, indicates that the cues are coming from a single, relatively restricted area, most likely surrounding the home loft. We have modeled the transmission of infrasonic waves, presumably coupled to the atmosphere from ocean-generated microseisms (0.14 Hz), between the Cornell loft and a number of release sites using HARPA (Hamiltonian Acoustic Ray-tracing Program for the Atmosphere) and rawinsonde data collected near Albany and Buffalo, NY. The HARPA modeling shows that acoustic signals from the Cornell loft reached Jersey Hill only on a few release days with unusual atmospheric conditions, including August 13, and were launched at angles less than ~2° above horizontal, most likely from steep-sided terrain in

  15. Spectral reflectance analysis of longkong (Lansium domesticum Corr. bunches as an indicator for optimal harvesting

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    Kaewtubtim, P.

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available To determine the appropriate harvesting time of Longkong bunches, the spectral reflectance of ripening bunches was investigated from images taken by a digital camera using red LED and green LED. Every day images were taken from selected bunches at a Longkong estate during the growth of the bunches from immaturity to the over-ripe phase, to trace the changes in color that correlate with the process of ripening. The images were analyzed by measuring the changes in the three basic colors i.e. red, green and blue, using a specially developed Color Analysis computer program of Longkong "fruit" (CAOL, and then the obtained results were compared with the sweet in form of total soluble solid (TSS:TA.The result showed that the blue light reflectance from red LED source (Br was selected as an indicator for harvesting Longkong bunches. Br was inversely proportional to ripeness of Longkong. The blue color intensity decreases linearly while TSS:TA increases monotonously. From our investigations, we suggest that the time interval to harvest Longkong should be within 96 ±7 days after the first flower blossom of that bunch takes place while blue level per pixel was in the range of 8.67-2.39. If Longkong bunch was cut while the blue color level was in the range of 8.67-5.53, its taste will be sweet and sour and strong enough for long distance shipment. But if the blue level per pixel was in the range of 5.52-2.39, it has a very good taste and is suitable a for sale in the local area. In addition, it was also found that the blue level per pixel usually decreased at the rate of 0.45 per day. This made is possible to predict the harvesting day by this technique.

  16. Multivariate Analysis of Countries according to Subdimensions of Human Development and Gender Inequality Indices

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    Selay Giray

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Human Development Index (HDI is an index aiming to measure human development by taking into account a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living. The 2013 Human Development Report presents HDI values and ranks, the Inequality-adjusted HDI the Gender Inequality Index (GII and the Multidimensional Poverty Index. The aim of this study is to evaluate countries according to their similarities and differences using the indicators contained in the 2013 human development report. A figure created in two dimensional space was used by evaluation. Locations of Turkey, OECD and Eurasian countries are analyzed and interpreted elaborately. Multidimensional scaling is a statistical technique provides visual representation of the objects using proximity patterns. The most recent data of countries were analyzed by Multidimensional Scaling analysis (MDS. Stress value obtained from metric multidimensional scaling application was found in desired range. Also it was determined that we can trust the interpretations made of the map. To begin with, comparison by country groups was made, then remarkable points were interpreted on the basis of country. As examination of the map obtained from MDS application with HDI and GII indexes, it was remarked that OECD countries were grouped on the left hand side and Eurasian countries were grouped on the right hand side. Turkey, a member of OECD, located far away from other OECD countries and located closer to Eurasian countries. According to HDI and GII indexes Mexico is closest country to Turkey. Also Mexico is the country, which is perceived similar to Turkey.

  17. Stability-indicating micellar electrokinetic chromatography method for the analysis of sumatriptan succinate in pharmaceutical formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Azzam, Khaldun M; Saad, Bahruddin; Tat, Chai Yuan; Mat, Ishak; Aboul-Enein, Hassan Y

    2011-12-15

    A micellar electrokinetic chromatography method for the determination of sumatriptan succinate in pharmaceutical formulations was developed. The effects of several factors such as pH, surfactant and buffer concentration, applied voltage, capillary temperature, and injection time were investigated. Separation took about 5 min using phenobarbital as internal standard. The separation was carried out in reversed polarity mode at 20 °C, 26 kV and using hydrodynamic injection for 10s. Separation was achieved using a bare fused-silica capillary 50 μm×40 cm and background electrolyte of 25 mM sodium dihydrogen phosphate-adjusted with concentrated phosphoric acid to pH 2.2, containing 125 mM sodium dodecyl sulfate and detection was at 226 nm. The method was validated with respect to linearity, limits of detection and quantification, accuracy, precision and selectivity. The calibration curve was linear over the range of 100-2000 μg mL(-1). The relative standard deviations of intra-day and inter-day precision for migration time, peak area, corrected peak area, ratio of corrected peak area and ratio of peak area were less than 0.68, 3.48, 3.28, 2.97 and 2.83% and 2.01, 5.50, 4.46, 4.92 and 4.07%, respectively. The proposed method was successfully applied to the determinations of the analyte in tablet. Forced degradation studies were conducted by introducing a sample of sumatriptan succinate standard solution to different forced degradation conditions using neutral (water), basic (0.1 M NaOH), acidic (0.1 M HCl), oxidative (10% H(2)O(2)) and photolytic (exposure to UV light at 254 nm for 2 h). It is concluded that the stability-indicating method for sumatriptan succinate can be used for the analysis of the drug in various samples.

  18. Analysis of fluorescent reporters indicates heterogeneity in glucose uptake and utilization in clonal bacterial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Nela; Barner, Thomas; Ackermann, Martin

    2013-11-15

    In this study, we aimed at investigating heterogeneity in the expression of metabolic genes in clonal populations of Escherichia coli growing on glucose as the sole carbon source. Different metabolic phenotypes can arise in these clonal populations through variation in the expression of glucose transporters and metabolic enzymes. First, we focused on the glucose transporters PtsG and MglBAC to analyze the diversity of glucose uptake strategies. Second, we analyzed phenotypic variation in the expression of genes involved in gluconeogenesis and acetate scavenging (as acetate is formed and excreted during bacterial growth on glucose), which can reveal, for instance, phenotypic subpopulations that cross-feed through the exchange of acetate. In these experiments, E. coli MG1655 strains containing different transcriptional GFP reporters were grown in chemostats and reporter expression was measured with flow cytometry. Our results suggest heterogeneous expression of metabolic genes in bacterial clonal populations grown in glucose environments. The two glucose transport systems exhibited different level of heterogeneity. The majority of the bacterial cells expressed the reporters for both glucose transporters MglBAC and PtsG and a small fraction of cells only expressed the reporter for Mgl. At a low dilution rate, signals from transcriptional reporters for acetyl-CoA synthetase Acs and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase Pck indicated that almost all cells expressed the genes that are part of acetate utilization and the gluconeogenesis pathway, respectively. Possible co-existence of two phenotypic subpopulations differing in acs expression occurred at the threshold of the switch to overflow metabolism. The overflow metabolism results in the production of acetate and has been previously reported to occur at intermediate dilution rates in chemostats with high concentration of glucose in the feed. Analysis of the heterogeneous expression of reporters for genes involved in

  19. Blog Citations as Indicators of the Societal Impact of Research : Content Analysis of Social Sciences Blogs

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    Hamid R. Jamali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes motivations behind social sciences blog posts citing journal articles in order to find out whether blog citations are good indicators for the societal impact or benefits of research. A random sample of 300 social sciences blog posts (out of 1,233 blog posts from ResearchBlogging.org published between 01/01/2012 to 18/06/2014 were subjected to content analysis. The 300 blog posts had 472 references including 424 journal articles from 269 different journals. Sixty‐one (22.68% of all cited journals were from the social sciences and most of the journals with high frequency were highly cited general science journals such as PNAS and Science. Seventy‐five percent of all journals were referenced only once. The average age of articles cited at the time of citation was 5.8 years. Discussion and criticism were the two main categories of motivations. Overall, the study shows the potential of blog citations as an altmetric measure and as a proxy for assessing the research impact. A considerable number of citation motivations in blogs such as disputing a belief, suggesting policies, providing a solution to a problem, reacting to media, criticism and the like seemed to support gaining societal benefits. Societal benefits are considered as helping stimulate new approaches to social issues, or informing public debate and policymaking. Lower self‐citation (compared to some other altmetric measures such as tweets and the fact that blogging involves generating content (i.e. an intellectual process give them an advantage for altmetrics. However, limitations and contextual issues such as disciplinary differences and low uptake of altmetrics, in general, in scholarly communication should not be ignored when using blogs as a data source for altmetrics.

  20. Metagenomic analysis indicates Epsilonproteobacteria as a potential cause of microbial corrosion in pipelines injected with bisulfite

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    Dongshan eAn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sodium bisulfite (SBS is used as an oxygen scavenger to decrease corrosion in pipelines transporting brackish subsurface water used in the production of bitumen by steam-assisted gravity drainage. Sequencing 16S rRNA gene amplicons has indicated that SBS addition increased the fraction of the sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB Desulfomicrobium, as well as of Desulfocapsa, which can also grow by disproportionating sulfite into sulfide, sulfur and sulfate. SRB use cathodic H2, formed by reduction of aqueous protons at the iron surface, or use low potential electrons from iron and aqueous protons directly for sulfate reduction. In order to reveal the effects of SBS treatment in more detail, metagenomic analysis was performed with pipe-associated solids (PAS scraped from a pipe section upstream (PAS-616P and downstream (PAS-821TP of the SBS injection point. A major SBS-induced change in microbial community composition and in affiliated hynL genes for the large subunit of [NiFe] hydrogenase was the appearance of sulfur-metabolizing Epsilonproteobacteria of the genera Sulfuricurvum and Sulfurovum. These are chemolithotrophs, which oxidize sulfide or sulfur with O2 or reduce sulfur with H2. Because O2 was absent, this class likely catalyzed reduction of sulfur (S0 originating from the metabolism of bisulfite with cathodic H2 (or low potential electrons and aqueous protons originating from the corrosion of steel (Fe0. Overall this accelerates reaction of of S0 and Fe0 to form FeS, making this class a potentially powerful contributor to microbial corrosion. The PAS-821TP metagenome also had increased fractions of Deltaproteobacteria including the SRB Desulfomicrobium and Desulfocapsa. Altogether, SBS increased the fraction of hydrogen-utilizing Delta- and Epsilonproteobacteria in brackish-water-transporting pipelines, potentially stimulating anaerobic pipeline corrosion if dosed in excess of the intended oxygen scavenger function.

  1. An economic cost analysis of emergency department key performance indicators in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Brenda; Jones, Cheryl; McCabe, Aileen; O'Sullivan, Ronan; Wakai, Abel

    2017-06-01

    High quality data is fundamental to using key performance indicators (KPIs) for performance monitoring. However, the resources required to collect high quality data are often significant and should usually be targeted at high priority areas. As part of a study of 11 emergency department (ED) KPIs in Ireland, the primary objective of this study was to estimate the relative cost of collecting the additional minimum data set (MDS) elements for those 11 KPIs. An economic cost analysis focused on 12 EDs in the Republic of Ireland. The resource use data were obtained using two separate focus group interviews. The number of available MDS elements was obtained from a sample of 100 patient records per KPI per participating ED. Unit costs for all resource use were taken at the midpoint of the relevant staff salary scales. An ED would need to spend an estimated additional &OV0556;3561 per month on average to capture all the MDS elements relevant to the 11 KPIs investigated. The additional cost ranges from 14.8 to 39.2%; this range is 13.9-32.3% for small EDs, whereas the range for medium EDs is 11.7-40%. Regional EDs have a higher additional estimated cost to capture all the relevant MDS elements (&OV0556;3907), compared with urban EDs (&OV0556;3353). The additional cost of data collection, contingent on that already collected, required to capture all the relevant MDS elements for the KPIs examined, ranges from 14.8 to 39.2% per KPI, with variation identified between regional and urban hospitals.

  2. Metagenomic Analysis Indicates Epsilonproteobacteria as a Potential Cause of Microbial Corrosion in Pipelines Injected with Bisulfite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Dongshan; Dong, Xiaoli; An, Annie; Park, Hyung S; Strous, Marc; Voordouw, Gerrit

    2016-01-01

    Sodium bisulfite (SBS) is used as an oxygen scavenger to decrease corrosion in pipelines transporting brackish subsurface water used in the production of bitumen by steam-assisted gravity drainage. Sequencing 16S rRNA gene amplicons has indicated that SBS addition increased the fraction of the sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) Desulfomicrobium, as well as of Desulfocapsa, which can also grow by disproportionating sulfite into sulfide, sulfur, and sulfate. SRB use cathodic H2, formed by reduction of aqueous protons at the iron surface, or use low potential electrons from iron and aqueous protons directly for sulfate reduction. In order to reveal the effects of SBS treatment in more detail, metagenomic analysis was performed with pipe-associated solids (PAS) scraped from a pipe section upstream (PAS-616P) and downstream (PAS-821TP) of the SBS injection point. A major SBS-induced change in microbial community composition and in affiliated hynL genes for the large subunit of [NiFe] hydrogenase was the appearance of sulfur-metabolizing Epsilonproteobacteria of the genera Sulfuricurvum and Sulfurovum. These are chemolithotrophs, which oxidize sulfide or sulfur with O2 or reduce sulfur with H2. Because O2 was absent, this class likely catalyzed reduction of sulfur (S(0)) originating from the metabolism of bisulfite with cathodic H2 (or low potential electrons and aqueous protons) originating from the corrosion of steel (Fe(0)). Overall this accelerates reaction of of S(0) and Fe(0) to form FeS, making this class a potentially powerful contributor to microbial corrosion. The PAS-821TP metagenome also had increased fractions of Deltaproteobacteria including the SRB Desulfomicrobium and Desulfocapsa. Altogether, SBS increased the fraction of hydrogen-utilizing Delta- and Epsilonproteobacteria in brackish-water-transporting pipelines, potentially stimulating anaerobic pipeline corrosion if dosed in excess of the intended oxygen scavenger function.

  3. Stratification and analysis of housing indicators of rural areas of Isfahan province using factor and cluster analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Seidaiy

    2013-01-01

    of rooms per household member20The share of residential units from durable materials10The share of owner households to percentage21The share of residential units from semi-durable materials11The share of tenant households to percentage22The share of residential units of less durable materials 4– ConclusionAccording to the research objectives, in the first phase, of the 52 variables related to housing, 22 indicators were extracted. Before conducting factor analysis, the suitability of data set for this analysis was evaluated through KOM and BTS tests. At the end 18 indicators were used in the calculations. Selected indicators reduced to 5 through the factor analysis and the total variance accounted for by these indicators is 86.249%. Among these 5 factors, one named fundamental factor with 26.314% variance alone is the most influential factor in this study. In order to classify homogeneous rural areas, cluster analysis has been used, by which, the rural areas of the province were classified into seven homogeneous groups; based on which, the rural areas of the city of Isfahan have the highest level and Najaf Abad, Tyran-Va-Karvn, Natanz, Kashan, Khansar, Aran-Va-Bydgl, Golpayegan and Semirom Sofla have the lowest level of housing indicators. 5– SuggestionsConsidering the importance of housing issue, to achieve the desired situation and eliminate the heterogeneity, it is necessary that lower level areas be given higher priority. Also considering the reality of different climatic conditions in different areas of the province, areas in each homogeneous group have not necessarily the same natural environment; therefore, it is necessary to provide suitable model for each area so that effective and practical planning towards improvement of housing situation be achieved.Key words: factor analysis, cluster analysis, housing indicators, rural areas of Isfahan provinceReferencesAghasi, R., (1994, "Geographical analysis of housing", collection of articles of the Seminar on

  4. Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) Model to Detect Financial Crisis in Indonesia Based on Import and Export Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana; Rahma Dwi, Sisca

    2017-06-01

    A country is said to be a crisis when the financial system is experiencing a disruption that affects systems that can not function efficiently. The performance efficiency of macroeconomic indicators especially in imports and exports can be used to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Based on the import and export indicators from 1987 to 2015, the movement of these indicators can be modelled using SWARCH three states. The results showed that SWARCH (3,1) model was able to detect the crisis that occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. Using this model, it can be concluded that Indonesia is prone to financial crisis in 2016.

  5. Molecular modeling indicates distinct classes of missense variants with mild and severe XLRS phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Yuri V; Vitale, Susan; Sieving, Paul A; Vincent, Ajoy; Robson, Anthony G; Moore, Anthony T; Webster, Andrew R; Holder, Graham E

    2013-12-01

    X-linked retinoschisis (XLRS) is a vitreo-retinal degeneration caused by mutations in the RS1 gene which encodes the protein retinoschisin (RS1), required for the structural and functional integrity of the retina. Data are presented from a group of 38 XLRS patients from Moorfields Eye Hospital (London, UK) who had one of 18 missense mutations in RS1. Patients were grouped based on mutation severity predicted by molecular modeling: mild (class I), moderate (intermediate) and severe (class II). Most patients had an electronegative scotopic bright flash electroretinogram (ERG) (reduced b/a-wave ratio) in keeping with predominant inner retinal dysfunction. An association between the type of structural RS1 alterations and the severity of b/a-wave reduction was found in all but the oldest group of patients, significant in patients aged 15-30 years. Severe RS1 missense changes were associated with a lower ERG b/a ratio than were mild changes, suggesting that the extent of inner retinal dysfunction is influenced by the effect of the mutations on protein structure. The majority of class I mutations showed no changes involving cysteine residues. Class II mutations caused severe perturbations due to the removal or insertion of cysteine residues or due to changes in the hydrophobic core. The ERG b/a ratio in intermediate cases was abnormal but showed significant variability, possibly related to the role of proline or arginine residues. We also conducted a second study, using a completely independent cohort, to indicate a genotype-ERG phenotype correlation.

  6. Impact of Distinct Oxygenators on Pulsatile Energy Indicators in an Adult Cardiopulmonary Bypass Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griep, Lonneke M; van Barneveld, Laurentius J M; Simons, Antoine P; Boer, Christa; Weerwind, Patrick W

    2017-02-01

    The quantification of pulse energy during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) post-oxygenator is required prior to the evaluation of the possible beneficial effects of pulsatile flow on patient outcome. We therefore, evaluated the impact of three distinctive oxygenators on the energy indicators energy equivalent pressure (EEP) and surplus hemodynamic energy (SHE) in an adult CPB model under both pulsatile and laminar flow conditions. The pre- and post-oxygenator pressure and flow were measured at room temperature using a 40% glycerin-water mixture at flow rates of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 L/min. The pulse settings at frequencies of 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 beats per minute were according to the internal algorithm of the Sorin CP5 centrifugal pump. The EEP is equal to the mean pressure, hence no SHE is present under laminar flow conditions. The Quadrox-i Adult oxygenator was associated with the highest preservation of pulsatile energy irrespective of flow rates. The low pressure drop-high compliant Quadrox-i Adult oxygenator shows the best SHE performance at flow rates of 5 and 6 L/min, while the intermediate pressure drop-low compliant Fusion oxygenator and the high pressure drop-low compliant Inspire 8F oxygenator behave optimally at flow rates of 5 L/min and up to 4 L/min, respectively. In conclusion, our findings contributed to studies focusing on SHE values post-oxygenator as well as post-cannula in clinical practice. In addition, our findings may give guidance to the clinical perfusionist for oxygenator selection prior to pulsatile CPB based on the calculated flow rate for the individual patient. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Gentrification and models for real estate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Brusa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This research propose a deep analysis of Milanese real estate market, based on data supplied by three real estate organizations; gentrification appears in some neighborhoods, such as Tortona, Porta Genova, Bovisa, Isola Garibaldi: the latest is the subject of the final analysis, by surveying of physical and social state of the area. The survey takes place in two periods (2003 and 2009 to compare the evolution of gentrification. The results of surveys has been employed in a simulation by multi-agent system model, to foresee long term evolution of the phenomenon. These neighborhood micro-indicators allow to put in evidence actual trends, conditioning a local real estate market, which can translate themselves in phenomena such as gentrification. In present analysis, the employ of cellular automata models applied to a neighborhood in Milan (Isola Garibaldi produced the dynamic simulation of gentrification trend during a very long time: the cyclical phenomenon (one loop holds a period of twenty – thirty years appears sometimes during a theoretical time of 100 – 120 – 150 years. Simulation of long period scenarios by multi-agent systems and cellular automata provides estimator with powerful tool, without limits in implementing it, able to support him in appraisal judge. It stands also to reason that such a tool can sustain urban planning and related evaluation processes.

  8. Analysis on the indicator species and ecological groups of pelagic ostracods in the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Zhaoli

    2008-01-01

    Ecological adaptation and ecological groups of pelagic ostraceds were examined in the East China Sea (23°30' ~ 33°00'N,118°30'~ 128°00'E),in relation to temperature and salinity.The data were collected in four surveys conducted from 1997 to 2000.The density,yield density,or negative exponent models were used to determine the optimal temperature and salinity of wa-ter for the thriving growth of pelagic ostracods.Thereafter,ecological groups and potential distribution patterns of pelagic ostracods were determined based on the predicted parameters such as optimal temperature and salinity,consulting the geographic distribu-tion.The analytical results indicate that,among the numerical dominant pelagic ostraceds in the East China Sea (ECS),Eucon-choecia aculeata,E.elongata,E.chierchiae,E.maimai,and Cypridina dentata,etc.are offshore subtropical water species.These species are widely distributed in the area,and they can be brought by the warm current to north offshore during spring and winter.The predicated optimal temperature (OT) and optimal salinity (OS) for Paraconchoecia decipiens,P.echinata,P.spini-fera,P.oblonga,Conchoecia magna and Porroecia porrecta are all greater than 25℃ and 34 separately.These species are mainly distributed in the waters of the Kuroshio,the Taiwan Warm Current,and the Taiwan Strait,and therefore are designated as ocean-ic tropical water species.On the other hand,Pseudoconchoecia concentrica is considered as offshore subtropical water species based on its geographical distribution although its OT is 19~C.The other species,though their OSs are approximately 34 and with OTs ranging from 20° to 25℃,are considered as offshore subtropical water species because they were found to be widely distribu-ted from the South China Sea to the East China Sea.

  9. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ECONOMICALLY VALUABLE TRAITS AND INTERIOR INDICATORS PIGS AT USE OF DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS "SELENIUM VITA" AND "TOPINAMBUR"

    OpenAIRE

    Fedorov V. H.; Gribtsova T. V.

    2015-01-01

    Studies were conducted on pure-bred pigs CT and DM-1. An analysis of variance of economically useful signs and interior indicators pigs using dietary supplements "Vita selenium" and "Jerusalem artichoke"

  10. Extensions in model-based system analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Graham, Matthew R.

    2007-01-01

    Model-based system analysis techniques provide a means for determining desired system performance prior to actual implementation. In addition to specifying desired performance, model-based analysis techniques require mathematical descriptions that characterize relevant behavior of the system. The developments of this dissertation give ex. tended formulations for control- relevant model estimation as well as model-based analysis conditions for performance requirements specified as frequency do...

  11. The use of sensory perception indicators for improving the characterization and modelling of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxo, Sónia; de Almeida, José António; Matias, Filipa Vieira; Mata-Lima, Herlander; Barbosa, Sofia

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a multistep approach for creating a 3D stochastic model of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in potentially polluted soils of a deactivated oil storage site by using chemical analysis results as primary or hard data and classes of sensory perception variables as secondary or soft data. First, the statistical relationship between the sensory perception variables (e.g. colour, odour and oil-water reaction) and TPH grade is analysed, after which the sensory perception variable exhibiting the highest correlation is selected (oil-water reaction in this case study). The probabilities of cells belonging to classes of oil-water reaction are then estimated for the entire soil volume using indicator kriging. Next, local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell are computed, combining the probabilities of belonging to a specific sensory perception indicator class and conditional to the simulated values of TPH grade. Finally, simulated images of TPH grade are generated by using the P-field simulation algorithm, utilising the local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell. The set of simulated TPH values allows several calculations to be performed, such as average values, local uncertainties and the probability of the TPH grade of the soil exceeding a specific threshold value.

  12. ANALYSIS OF SELECTION INDICATORS OF BADMINTON PLAYERS BY THE DELPHI METHOD AND ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Han-Chen Huang; Chun-Ta Lin; Chia-Sen Hu

    2015-01-01

    .... The researcher then interviewed badminton coaches and applied Analytic Hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the importance of the indicators of potential badminton players for badminton coaches...

  13. Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2008-01-01

    We analyze 27 house price indices of Las Vegas from June 1983 to March 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential, which is found, however, to be confined to a rather limited time interval in the recent past from approximately 2003 to mid-2004 and has progressively transformed into a more normal growth rate comparable to pre-bubble levels in 2005. There has been no bubble till 2002 except for a medium-sized surge in 1990. In addition, we have identified a strong yearly periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that we have developed could confirm, by testing the intra-year structure, if indeed the market has returned to “normal” or if more turbulence is expected ahead. We predict the evolution of the indices one year ahead, which is validated with new data up to September 2006. The present analysis demonstrates the existence of very significant variations at the local scale, in the sense that the bubble in Las Vegas seems to have preceded the more global USA bubble and has ended approximately two years earlier (mid-2004 for Las Vegas compared with mid-2006 for the whole of the USA).

  14. Structural Equation Models of Latent Interactions: Evaluation of Alternative Estimation Strategies and Indicator Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Herbert W.; Wen, Zhonglin; Hau, Kit-Tai

    2004-01-01

    Interactions between (multiple indicator) latent variables are rarely used because of implementation complexity and competing strategies. Based on 4 simulation studies, the traditional constrained approach performed more poorly than did 3 new approaches-unconstrained, generalized appended product indicator, and quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML). The…

  15. Taxonomy for Child Well-Being Indicators: A Framework for the Analysis of the Well-Being of Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Arieh, Asher; Frones, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    Recent years have brought a dramatic rise in the number of efforts to measure and monitor the status of children. Yet, despite numerous efforts and reports with "Child indicators" in the title, the field of social child indication is fragmented and lacking a unifying taxonomy. The more ambitious the analysis and the more elaborate the statistics,…

  16. Economic Indicators of the Expenditures of Enterprise and the Costs of Production in Accounting, Statistics and Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vasyl Deriy; Stepan Popina

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to topical issues of economic nature, selection, development and use of economic indicators of expenditures of the enterprise and the cost of production in accounting, statistics and analysis. Given the author's interpretation of the term 'economic indicators', which are numerical values of natural, labor or cost meters, which appropriately characterizes the economic objects, facts, events, phenomena. It is proposed to form the following groups of economic indicators of...

  17. Comparative Analysis of Safety Performance Indicators Based on Inductive Loop Detector Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Reza Mamdoohi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Conflicts in traffic stream have been detected by different safety performance indicators. This study aims to empirically investigate the differences between different indicators in detecting rear-end conflicts and assessing the risk in an uninterrupted flow. Micro-level data of a 24-hr traffic stream (including 6,657 vehicles were captured using inductive loop detectors installed on a rural freeway section. Different indicators (Time Headway (H, Time to Collision (TTC, Proportion of Stopping Distance (PSD, Deceleration Rate to Avoid Collision (DRAC and Stopping Distance Index (SDI were used to measure each car following event in a bivalent state (safe/unsafe. Unsafe events associated with each indicator were detected and common unsafe events characterized by different indicators were identified. Temporal distributions of rear-end collision risks associated with each indicator at 15-min intervals were also compared. Finally, the 15-min risk values based on different indicators were categorized and compared across three levels (Low, Medium and High. Data mining and statistical techniques showed that while SDI is the single most conservative indicator, DRAC and TTC detect a few risky events but very equal ones. In almost all conflicts associated with TTC, headway is still lower than the critical threshold. However, there exist considerable risky events based on headway which are still safe according to TTC. Comparison of PSD and TTC also declares that almost all conflicts associated with TTC are also risky according to PSD.

  18. Analysis of indicators to evaluate the industrial parks contribution to sustainable development: Mexican case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastida-Ruiz, E.; Franco-Garcia, M.L.; Kreiner, I.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper suggested a sustainability indicators framework for industrial parks in contexts where information is weakly reliable or insufficient. The authors tried to cover those gaps and construct an indicators framework by answering the following research questions: can a combination of "a

  19. Health system frameworks and performance indicators in eight countries: A comparative international analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Braithwaite

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Performance indicators are a popular mechanism for measuring the quality of healthcare to facilitate both quality improvement and systems management. Few studies make comparative assessments of different countries’ performance indicator frameworks. This study identifies and compares frameworks and performance indicators used in selected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development health systems to measure and report on the performance of healthcare organisations and local health systems. Countries involved are Australia, Canada, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Scotland and the United States. Methods: Identification of comparable international indicators and analyses of their characteristics and of their broader national frameworks and contexts were undertaken. Two dimensions of indicators – that they are nationally consistent (used across the country rather than just regionally and locally relevant (measured and reported publicly at a local level, for example, a health service – were deemed important. Results: The most commonly used domains in performance frameworks were safety, effectiveness and access. The search found 401 indicators that fulfilled the ‘nationally consistent and locally relevant’ criteria. Of these, 45 indicators are reported in more than one country. Cardiovascular, surgery and mental health were the most frequently reported disease groups. Conclusion: These comparative data inform researchers and policymakers internationally when designing health performance frameworks and indicator sets.

  20. Health system frameworks and performance indicators in eight countries: A comparative international analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braithwaite, Jeffrey; Hibbert, Peter; Blakely, Brette; Plumb, Jennifer; Hannaford, Natalie; Long, Janet Cameron; Marks, Danielle

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: Performance indicators are a popular mechanism for measuring the quality of healthcare to facilitate both quality improvement and systems management. Few studies make comparative assessments of different countries’ performance indicator frameworks. This study identifies and compares frameworks and performance indicators used in selected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development health systems to measure and report on the performance of healthcare organisations and local health systems. Countries involved are Australia, Canada, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Scotland and the United States. Methods: Identification of comparable international indicators and analyses of their characteristics and of their broader national frameworks and contexts were undertaken. Two dimensions of indicators – that they are nationally consistent (used across the country rather than just regionally) and locally relevant (measured and reported publicly at a local level, for example, a health service) – were deemed important. Results: The most commonly used domains in performance frameworks were safety, effectiveness and access. The search found 401 indicators that fulfilled the ‘nationally consistent and locally relevant’ criteria. Of these, 45 indicators are reported in more than one country. Cardiovascular, surgery and mental health were the most frequently reported disease groups. Conclusion: These comparative data inform researchers and policymakers internationally when designing health performance frameworks and indicator sets. PMID:28228948

  1. An Assessment of Social Welfare in Spain: Territorial Analysis Using a Synthetic Welfare Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espina, Pilar Zarzosa; Arechavala, Noelia Somarriba

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is measure social welfare in Spanish provinces. To achieve this, we use the distance method P[subscript 2] to compose a synthetic indicator of welfare for 2007, the last year for which data are available. The index comprises information on different social indicators from various life domains and enables a classification of…

  2. APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION SPECTRA TO IDENTIFY WINES WITH PROTECTED GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATION (IGP)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Khodasevich, M. A; Scorbanova, E. A; Obade, L. I; Degtуar, N. F; Cambur, E. I; Rogovaya, M. V

    2016-01-01

    ... % for alcohol strength to 30 % for tartaric acid content in red wines). The possibility is shown of solving t