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  1. ABOUT THE SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT OF YOUTH: GENERAL TASKS AND PRIVATE MODELS OF MARKET INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia V. Kontsevaya

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work attempt of system approach to the analysis of labor market of youth is made, the place and a role of youth labor exchange are dened, opportunities and methods of state regulation are opened, contradictions in the analysis of the main market indicators are designated.Within system approach to the analysis of dynamics of market processes modeling of the main indicators of labor market in regional scale is shown.This approach can be useful when developing effective and economically reasonable mechanisms of employment of youth, both at the level of regional services of employment, and in the state scale

  2. A combined sensitivity analysis and kriging surrogate modeling for early validation of health indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamoureux, Benjamin; Mechbal, Nazih; Massé, Jean-Rémi

    2014-01-01

    To increase the dependability of complex systems, one solution is to assess their state of health continuously through the monitoring of variables sensitive to potential degradation modes. When computed in an operating environment, these variables, known as health indicators, are subject to many uncertainties. Hence, the stochastic nature of health assessment combined with the lack of data in design stages makes it difficult to evaluate the efficiency of a health indicator before the system enters into service. This paper introduces a method for early validation of health indicators during the design stages of a system development process. This method uses physics-based modeling and uncertainties propagation to create simulated stochastic data. However, because of the large number of parameters defining the model and its computation duration, the necessary runtime for uncertainties propagation is prohibitive. Thus, kriging is used to obtain low computation time estimations of the model outputs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis techniques are performed upstream to determine the hierarchization of the model parameters and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The validation is based on three types of numerical key performance indicators corresponding to the detection, identification and prognostic processes. After having introduced and formalized the framework of uncertain systems modeling and the different performance metrics, the issues of sensitivity analysis and surrogate modeling are addressed. The method is subsequently applied to the validation of a set of health indicators for the monitoring of an aircraft engine’s pumping unit

  3. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from manured fields: model sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Whelan, Gene; Yakirevich, Alexander M; Guber, Andrey; Gish, Timothy J

    2014-02-01

    Microbial quality of surface waters attracts attention due to food- and waterborne disease outbreaks. Fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used for the microbial pollution level evaluation. Models predicting the fate and transport of FIOs are required to design and evaluate best management practices that reduce the microbial pollution in ecosystems and water sources and thus help to predict the risk of food and waterborne diseases. In this study we performed a sensitivity analysis for the KINEROS/STWIR model developed to predict the FIOs transport out of manured fields to other fields and water bodies in order to identify input variables that control the transport uncertainty. The distributions of model input parameters were set to encompass values found from three-year experiments at the USDA-ARS OPE3 experimental site in Beltsville and publicly available information. Sobol' indices and complementary regression trees were used to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the model and to explore the interactions between model input parameters on the proportion of FIO removed from fields. Regression trees provided a useful visualization of the differences in sensitivity of the model output in different parts of the input variable domain. Environmental controls such as soil saturation, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity had the largest influence in the model behavior, whereas soil and manure properties ranked lower. The field length had only moderate effect on the model output sensitivity to the model inputs. Among the manure-related properties the parameter determining the shape of the FIO release kinetic curve had the largest influence on the removal of FIOs from the fields. That underscored the need to better characterize the FIO release kinetics. Since the most sensitive model inputs are available in soil and weather databases or can be obtained using soil water models, results indicate the opportunity of obtaining large-scale estimates of FIO

  4. Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model

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    Diego García-Gusano

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants. In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and—to a lesser extent—fossil technologies with CO2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.

  5. Models and Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, Kenneth C.

    2001-01-01

    Examines the definition, construction, and interpretation of social indicators. Shows how standard classes of formalisms used to construct models in contemporary sociology are derived from the general theory of models. Reviews recent model building and evaluation related to active life expectancy among the elderly, fertility rates, and indicators…

  6. Sensitivity analysis in oxidation ditch modelling: the effect of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abusam, A.A.A.; Keesman, K.J.; Straten, van G.; Spanjers, H.; Meinema, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of the factorial sensitivity analysis methodology in studying the influence of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices of an oxidation ditch simulation model (benchmark). Factorial sensitivity analysis

  7. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from animal waste applied fields: model sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The microbial quality of surface waters warrants attention because of associated food- and waterborne-disease outbreaks, and fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used to evaluate levels of microbial pollution. Models that predict the fate and transport of FIOs are required for designing and...

  8. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from manured fields: Model sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Microbial quality of surface waters attracts attention due to food- and waterborne disease outbreaks. Fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used for the microbial pollution level evaluation. Models predicting the fate and transport of FIOs are required to design and evalu...

  9. PrimeSupplier Cross-Program Impact Analysis and Supplier Stability Indicator Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calluzzi, Michael

    2009-01-01

    PrimeSupplier, a supplier cross-program and element-impact simulation model, with supplier solvency indicator (SSI), has been developed so that the shuttle program can see early indicators of supplier and product line stability, while identifying the various elements and/or programs that have a particular supplier or product designed into the system. The model calculates two categories of benchmarks to determine the SSI, with one category focusing on agency programmatic data and the other focusing on a supplier's financial liquidity. PrimeSupplier was developed to help NASA smoothly transition design, manufacturing, and repair operations from the Shuttle program to the Constellation program, without disruption in the industrial supply base.

  10. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  11. Model-Based Analysis of the Potential of Macroinvertebrates as Indicators for Microbial Pathogens in Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén Jerves-Cobo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The quality of water prior to its use for drinking, farming or recreational purposes must comply with several physicochemical and microbiological standards to safeguard society and the environment. In order to satisfy these standards, expensive analyses and highly trained personnel in laboratories are required. Whereas macroinvertebrates have been used as ecological indicators to review the health of aquatic ecosystems. In this research, the relationship between microbial pathogens and macrobenthic invertebrate taxa was examined in the Machangara River located in the southern Andes of Ecuador, in which 33 sites, according to their land use, were chosen to collect physicochemical, microbiological and biological parameters. Decision tree models (DTMs were used to generate rules that link the presence and abundance of some benthic families to microbial pathogen standards. The aforementioned DTMs provide an indirect, approximate, and quick way of checking the fulfillment of Ecuadorian regulations for water use related to microbial pathogens. The models built and optimized with the WEKA package, were evaluated based on both statistical and ecological criteria to make them as clear and simple as possible. As a result, two different and reliable models were obtained, which could be used as proxy indicators in a preliminary assessment of pollution of microbial pathogens in rivers. The DTMs can be easily applied by staff with minimal training in the identification of the sensitive taxa selected by the models. The presence of selected macroinvertebrate taxa in conjunction with the decision trees can be used as a screening tool to evaluate sites that require additional follow up analyses to confirm whether microbial water quality standards are met.

  12. Analysis of risk indicators and issues associated with applications of screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Droppo, J.G. Jr.

    1990-12-01

    Risk indicators, such as population risk, maximum individual risk, time of arrival of contamination, and maximum water concentrations, were analyzed to determine their effect on results from a screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites. The analysis of risk indicators is based on calculations resulting from exposure to air and waterborne contamination predicted with Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) model. The different risk indicators were analyzed, based on constituent type and transport and exposure pathways. Three of the specific comparisons that were made are (1) population-based versus maximum individual-based risk indicators, (2) time of arrival of contamination, and (3) comparison of different threshold assumptions for noncarcinogenic impacts. Comparison of indicators for population- and maximum individual-based human health risk suggests that these two parameters are highly correlated, but for a given problem, one may be more important than the other. The results indicate that the arrival distribution for different levels of contamination reaching a receptor can also be helpful in decisions regarding the use of resources for remediating short- and long-term environmental problems. The addition of information from a linear model for noncarcinogenic impacts allows interpretation of results below the reference dose (RfD) levels that might help in decisions for certain applications. The analysis of risk indicators suggests that important information may be lost by the use of a single indicator to represent public health risk and that multiple indicators should be considered. 15 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  13. Should researchers use single indicators, best indicators, or multiple indicators in structural equation models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayduk Leslie A

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural equation modeling developed as a statistical melding of path analysis and factor analysis that obscured a fundamental tension between a factor preference for multiple indicators and path modeling’s openness to fewer indicators. Discussion Multiple indicators hamper theory by unnecessarily restricting the number of modeled latents. Using the few best indicators – possibly even the single best indicator of each latent – encourages development of theoretically sophisticated models. Additional latent variables permit stronger statistical control of potential confounders, and encourage detailed investigation of mediating causal mechanisms. Summary We recommend the use of the few best indicators. One or two indicators are often sufficient, but three indicators may occasionally be helpful. More than three indicators are rarely warranted because additional redundant indicators provide less research benefit than single indicators of additional latent variables. Scales created from multiple indicators can introduce additional problems, and are prone to being less desirable than either single or multiple indicators.

  14. Investigating and Modelling Effects of Climatically and Hydrologically Indicators on the Urmia Lake Coastline Changes Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadijamal, M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Study of hydrological parameters of lakes and examine the variation of water level to operate management on water resources are important. The purpose of this study is to investigate and model the Urmia Lake water level changes due to changes in climatically and hydrological indicators that affects in the process of level variation and area of this lake. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images, hydrological data, the daily precipitation, the daily surface evaporation and the daily discharge in total of the lake basin during the period of 2010-2016 have been used. Based on time-series analysis that is conducted on individual data independently with same procedure, to model variation of Urmia Lake level, we used polynomial regression technique and combined polynomial with periodic behavior. In the first scenario, we fit a multivariate linear polynomial to our datasets and determining RMSE, NRSME and R² value. We found that fourth degree polynomial can better fit to our datasets with lowest RMSE value about 9 cm. In the second scenario, we combine polynomial with periodic behavior for modeling. The second scenario has superiority comparing to the first one, by RMSE value about 3 cm.

  15. Analysis of indicators of an efficiency estimation of work of the employee and the business model of the organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury G. Odegov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In conditions of increasing competition, the problems of efficiency increase of activity of the company are significantly actualized, which directly depends on efficiency of labour activity of every employee and the implemented business model of the organization. On this basis the aim of the research is to analyze existing indicators of performance evaluation of the labour activities of both the employee and the business model of the organization.The theoretical basis of the study consists of principles of the economic theory, the works of native and foreign experts in the field of job evaluation. The information base of the research consists of economic and legal literature dealing with problems of this study, the data published in periodicals, materials of Russian scientific conferences, seminars, and Internet resources.In this article I have used and found the application of scientific methods of data collection, methods of research and methods of assessing their credibility: quantitative, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis.The modern business concern about the accumulation of wealth of shareholders, giving the company stability, growth and efficiency inevitably leads to necessity of creation and development of technologies aimed at improving the productivity of employees. The paper presents a comparative analysis of different approaches to assessing the labour effectiveness.The performance of the work is the ratio of the four essential parameters that determine the measure of efficiency of persons’ activity: the quantity and quality of result of work (a service, material product or technology in relation to spend time and cost on its production. The use of employees («performance» should be in the following way that they could achieve the planned results in the workplace. The authors have noted that to develop of technologies for the measurement of productivity it is very important to use the procedures and indicators that are

  16. MODELING OF INDICATORS OF LIVESTOCK IN RUSSIA

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    Ekaterina S. Darda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of livestock in food without dangerous country. The analysis of the dynamics of production indicators waspsmainly livestock products. The problems offorecasting-ing performance of LivestockDevelopment of the Russian Federationon the basis of the a-analytical models ofalignment and connected series.

  17. Probabilistic modelling of human exposure to intense sweeteners in Italian teenagers: validation and sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic model including indicators of market share and brand loyalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcella, D; Soggiu, M E; Leclercq, C

    2003-10-01

    For the assessment of exposure to food-borne chemicals, the most commonly used methods in the European Union follow a deterministic approach based on conservative assumptions. Over the past few years, to get a more realistic view of exposure to food chemicals, risk managers are getting more interested in the probabilistic approach. Within the EU-funded 'Monte Carlo' project, a stochastic model of exposure to chemical substances from the diet and a computer software program were developed. The aim of this paper was to validate the model with respect to the intake of saccharin from table-top sweeteners and cyclamate from soft drinks by Italian teenagers with the use of the software and to evaluate the impact of the inclusion/exclusion of indicators on market share and brand loyalty through a sensitivity analysis. Data on food consumption and the concentration of sweeteners were collected. A food frequency questionnaire aimed at identifying females who were high consumers of sugar-free soft drinks and/or of table top sweeteners was filled in by 3982 teenagers living in the District of Rome. Moreover, 362 subjects participated in a detailed food survey by recording, at brand level, all foods and beverages ingested over 12 days. Producers were asked to provide the intense sweeteners' concentration of sugar-free products. Results showed that consumer behaviour with respect to brands has an impact on exposure assessments. Only probabilistic models that took into account indicators of market share and brand loyalty met the validation criteria.

  18. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  19. A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarantola, Stefano [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,), 21020 (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Nardo, Michela [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy); Saisana, Michaela [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy); Gatelli, Debora [European Commission , Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Applied Statistics Group, TP 361, Via E. Fermi, 1, Ispra (VA), 21020 (Italy)

    2006-10-15

    In this paper we propose and test a generalisation of the method originally proposed by Sobol', and recently extended by Saltelli, to estimate the first-order and total effect sensitivity indices. Exploiting the symmetries and the dualities of the formulas, we obtain additional estimates of first-order and total indices at no extra computational cost. We test the technique on a case study involving the construction of a composite indicator of e-business readiness, which is part of the initiative 'e-Readiness of European enterprises' of the European Commission 'e-Europe 2005' action plan. The method is used to assess the contribution of uncertainties in (a) the weights of the component indicators and (b) the imputation of missing data on the composite indicator values for several European countries.

  20. A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, Stefano; Nardo, Michela; Saisana, Michaela; Gatelli, Debora

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we propose and test a generalisation of the method originally proposed by Sobol', and recently extended by Saltelli, to estimate the first-order and total effect sensitivity indices. Exploiting the symmetries and the dualities of the formulas, we obtain additional estimates of first-order and total indices at no extra computational cost. We test the technique on a case study involving the construction of a composite indicator of e-business readiness, which is part of the initiative 'e-Readiness of European enterprises' of the European Commission 'e-Europe 2005' action plan. The method is used to assess the contribution of uncertainties in (a) the weights of the component indicators and (b) the imputation of missing data on the composite indicator values for several European countries

  1. [Construction of MHV-A59 damp-heat mouse model and analysis of the relevant indices].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhao-hui; Su, Li-xian; Li, Hua-feng; Guo, Jin-qiang; Luo, Bing-de; Lin, Pei-zheng

    2010-11-01

    To explore the impact of inflammation, water metabolism and immune function on the establishment of a mouse model of damp-heat syndrome with MHV-A59 infection. Twenty-four mice were randomly divided into control group, virus group, damp-heat group and model group. The peripheral blood CD4(+) and CD8(+) lymphocytes were detected by flow cytometry, and the serum levels of IFN-γ and IL-4 were assayed by ELISA. The expressions of NF-κB and AQP4 in the liver and stomach were determined using immunohistochemistry. The expression of NF-κB and CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio in the virus and model groups were significantly higher than those in the damp-heat and control groups, while the expression of AQP4 was significantly higher in the model and damp-heat groups than in the other groups. Compared with the control group, the model group showed a significantly higher ratio of IFN-γ/IL-4. MHV-A59 virus is the main cause of elevated NF-κB expression and CD4(+)/CD8(+)/ ratio, while damp-heat syndrome is responsible for increased AQP4 expression, and their synergistic effect results in increased IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio. The mouse model established using MHV-A59 virus and the damp-heat factors can mimic damp-heat syndrome described in traditional Chinese medicine theory.

  2. Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: An indicator of residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Rodríguez, M.A.; Santiago, I.; Trillo-Montero, D.; Torriti, J.; Moreno-Munoz, A.

    2013-01-01

    The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy. -- Highlights: •Active occupancy profiles of Spanish dwellings has been obtained and modeled from Time Use Survey data. •Occupancy profiles resulting from the model can be used to model domestic energy consumption. •The presence of three peaks of active occupation was verified, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. •Manual and incentive-based DSM programmes are considered the most suitable for Spanish dwellings. •TV electricity consumption becomes important at aggregate level

  3. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    measures introduced in [10]. 2. Density contrast indicators. Density contrast indicators are among the most useful indicators to measure the degree of inhomogeneity of cosmological models. Over the years a large number of such proposals have been put forward (see [10]), many of which however have the undesirable ...

  4. Econometric models for forecasting of macroeconomic indices

    OpenAIRE

    Sukhanova, E. I.; Shirnaeva, S. Y.; Mokronosov, A. G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices development in the past and their cause and effect interrelations. The aim of the article is to build econometric models for macroeconomic indices forec...

  5. The Models for Analysis of Interrelations between the Indicators of Investment Activity and the System of Indicators of Efficiency of Using the Potential of the Regional Meat and Meat Products Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the publication is to provide the results of the analysis of existing approaches to the formulation and solution of the problem of evaluating the level of efficiency of using investment, production and consumption components of the potential of the regional market for meat and meat products in the context of its territorial systems as well as development of an own scientific and methodological approach to evaluating and analyzing the linkages between the effectiveness of using the components of the regional market for this food type and its determining factors, based on the development and use of possibilities of applied econometric models. With regard to the available statistical base, taking into account the results of studying management of the food and investment components of economic security, namely the works aimed at determining the indicators of investment activity, investment attractiveness and efficiency of using the investment climate of the territorial systems of the region, the investment attractiveness of economic activities, and the consumer and production potentials of the regional market for meat and meat products, there carried out an appropriate analysis of the effectiveness of the factors facilitating the food component of regional development security based on the evaluation of the parameters of the simulative econometric models.

  6. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  7. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bikova E.V.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The comparative analysis of ecological indicators designed and specified for Moldova and similar indicators of the countries of CIS is made in the work. Some general items of information about power systems of the countries of CIS (the established capacities, manufacture of the electric power are given, the analysis of dynamics of emissions GHG- СО2, NOx, SO2 in Moldova and comparison with the emissions level in other countries of CIS is made.

  8. Rapid Benefit Indicators (RBI) Spatial Analysis Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Rapid Benefit Indicators (RBI) approach consists of five steps and is outlined in Assessing the Benefits of Wetland Restoration - A Rapid Benefits Indicators Approach for Decision Makers. This spatial analysis tool is intended to be used to analyze existing spatial informatio...

  9. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We study the evolution of these indicators with time in the context of inhomogeneous Szekeres models. We find that different observers (having either different spatial locations or different indicators) see different evolutions for the density contrast, which may or may not be monotonically increasing with time. We also find that ...

  10. Sociometric Indicators of Leadership: An Exploratory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    as climate antecedents: A social network analysis . Journal of Applied Psychology, 93, 744- 754. ...Research Report 2015 Sociometric Indicators of Leadership: An Exploratory Analysis Elizabeth R. Uhl U.S. Army... Behavioral and Social Sciences Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social

  11. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

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    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  12. Decent work: Concepts, models and indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Dhai, Gharam

    2002-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to consider and evaluate indicators of decent work. It first discusses the concept and components of decent work. After discussing three models of decent work - classical, transition and development - it considers their relevance to countries with different institutional frameworks and at different stages of development. The paper also examines the suitability of a range of indicators on the four major components of decent work - employment, social security, ...

  13. Indications for colonoscopy An analysis based on indications and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Four hundred and forty-eight procedures were included in the analysis, with rectal bleeding, polyp follow-up and iron deficiency anaemia producing the highest diagnostic yields of 69,1%, 53,3% and 47,7% respectively. Lower yields were obtained for cancer follow-up (21%), abdominal pain (38,2%) and abnormal bowel ...

  14. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  15. Gold resource modeling using pod indicator kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Rauf, Abdul; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    This paper describes an implementation of the pod indicator kriging method used to gold resource modeling. Method such as ordinary kriging estimate the mean grade of a block that is fairly large. The usual outcome is that large blocks rarely turn out to be all ore or all waste, thus making reserve estimates an incorrect estimate of what will be mined. Pod indicator kriging offers a solution to this problem by estimating the distribution of grade values within a large block, rather than just estimating the mean grade of the block. Knowing the distribution of grade value within the block, it is then easy to calculate the proportion of the block that is above cutoff grade and the grade of the ore above cutoff grade. This research shows that the pod indicator kriging model is quite applicable and reliable in gold resourcemodeling.

  16. Management of Industrial Performance Indicators: Regression Analysis and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Roberto Hernandez Vergara

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic methods can be used in problem solving and explanation of natural phenomena through the application of statistical procedures. The article aims to associate the regression analysis and systems simulation, in order to facilitate the practical understanding of data analysis. The algorithms were developed in Microsoft Office Excel software, using statistical techniques such as regression theory, ANOVA and Cholesky Factorization, which made it possible to create models of single and multiple systems with up to five independent variables. For the analysis of these models, the Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of industrial performance indicators were used, resulting in numerical indices that aim to improve the goals’ management for compliance indicators, by identifying systems’ instability, correlation and anomalies. The analytical models presented in the survey indicated satisfactory results with numerous possibilities for industrial and academic applications, as well as the potential for deployment in new analytical techniques.

  17. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY INDICATORS VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANAMARIA POPESCU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to characterize through statistical indicators of statistical data that we have available. The purpose of this paper is to present statistical indicators, primary and secondary, simple and synthetic, which is frequently used for statistical characterization of statistical series. We can thus analyze central tendency, and data variability, form and concentration distributions package data using analytical tools in Microsoft Excel that enables automatic calculation of descriptive statistics using Data Analysis option from the Tools menu. We will also study the links which exist between statistical variables can be studied using two techniques, correlation and regression. From the analysis of monetary policy in the period 2003 - 2014 and information provided by the website of the National Bank of Romania (BNR seems to be a certain tendency towards eccentricity and asymmetry of financial data series.

  18. Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Carter, Randy L; Cullings, Harry M; Carroll, Raymond J

    2014-11-10

    Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  20. Population genetic analysis and bioclimatic modeling in Agave striata in the Chihuahuan Desert indicate higher genetic variation and lower differentiation in drier and more variable environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trejo, Laura; Alvarado-Cárdenas, Leonardo O; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis E

    2016-06-01

    Is there an association between bioclimatic variables and genetic variation within species? This question can be approached by a detailed analysis of population genetics parameters along environmental gradients in recently originated species (so genetic drift does not further obscure the patterns). The genus Agave, with more than 200 recent species encompassing a diversity of morphologies and distributional patterns, is an adequate system for such analyses. We studied Agave striata, a widely distributed species from the Chihuahuan Desert, with a distinctive iteroparous reproductive ecology and two recognized subspecies with clear morphological differences. We used population genetic analyses along with bioclimatic studies to understand the effect of environment on the genetic variation and differentiation of this species. We analyzed six populations of the subspecies A. striata subsp. striata, with a southern distribution, and six populations of A. striata subsp. falcata, with a northern distribution, using 48 ISSR loci and a total of 541 individuals (averaging 45 individuals per population). We assessed correlations between population genetics parameters (the levels of genetic variation and differentiation) and the bioclimatic variables of each population. We modeled each subspecies distribution and used linear correlations and multifactorial analysis of variance. Genetic variation (measured as expected heterozygosity) increased at higher latitudes. Higher levels of genetic variation in populations were associated with a higher variation in environmental temperature and lower precipitation. Stronger population differentiation was associated with wetter and more variable precipitation in the southern distribution of the species. The two subspecies have genetic differences, which coincide with their climatic differences and potential distributions. Differences in genetic variation among populations and the genetic differentiation between A. striata subsp. striata

  1. Analysis of Pitch Gear Deterioration using Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    of the damage, and can be used for Bayesian updating of a damage model used for risk-based decision making. For this decision problem, the risk of failure should be compared to the cost of preventive maintenance. The hypothesis that the maximum pitch motor torque is an indicator of the damage size is supported...... by results from a measurement campaign where measurements are available both before and after maintenance was performed. The loads dramatically decreased after the maintenance. However, after a few more months of measurements, and by including data from the SCADA system, it became obvious that seasonal...

  2. Factor analysis improves the selection of prescribing indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Hanne Marie Skyggedal; Søndergaard, Jens; Sokolowski, Ineta

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test a method for improving the selection of indicators of general practitioners' prescribing. METHODS: We conducted a prescription database study including all 180 general practices in the County of Funen, Denmark, approximately 472,000 inhabitants. Principal factor analysis was used...... to model correlation between 19 register-based indicators for the quality of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) prescribing. RESULTS: The correlation between indicators ranged widely from 0 to 0.93. Factor analysis revealed three dimensions of quality: (1) "Coxib preference", comprising...... appropriate and inappropriate prescribing, as revealed by the correlation of the indicators in the first factor. CONCLUSION: Correlation and factor analysis is a feasible method that assists the selection of indicators and gives better insight into prescribing patterns....

  3. Liquidity indicator for the Croatian economy – Factor analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Croatian business surveys (BS are conducted in the manufacturing industry, retail trade and construction sector. In all of these sectors, manager´s assessments of liquidity are measured. The aim of the paper was to form a new composite liquidity indicator by including business survey liquidity measures from all three covered economic sectors in the Croatian economy mentioned above. In calculating the leading indicator, a factor analysis approach was used. However, this kind of indicator does not exist in a Croatia or in any other European economy. Furthermore, the issue of Croatian companies´ illiquidity is highly neglected in the literature. The empirical analysis consists of two parts. In the first part the new liquidity indicator was formed using factor analysis. One factor (representing the new liquidity indicator; LI was extracted out of the three liquidity variables in three economic sectors. This factor represents the new liquidity indicator. In the second part, econometric models were applied in order to investigate the forecasting properties of the new business survey liquidity indicator, when predicting the direction of changes in Croatian industrial production. The quarterly data used in the research covered the period from January 2000 to April 2013. Based on econometric analysis, it can be concluded that the LI is a leading indicator of Croatia’s industrial production with better forecasting properties then the standard liquidity indicators (formed in a manufacturing industry.

  4. Identification, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Characterizing the Indicators of Asset Structure in the Credit Institutions Operating in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel CALINICA

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to accurately characterize the dynamics of the structural indicators of the assets in the credit institutions operating in Romania through an empirical mathematical model of dual function: regulation and control. The model can be used to predict the future evolution of the economic processes involved, or to study how to act upon them (management in case of changes in the environment around them (e.g. the impact of reducing the minimum compulsory reserve requirements on credit etc.

  5. D-galactose-induced brain ageing model: A systematic review and meta-analysis on cognitive outcomes and oxidative stress indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadigh-Eteghad, Saeed; Majdi, Alireza; McCann, Sarah K; Mahmoudi, Javad; Vafaee, Manouchehr S; Macleod, Malcolm R

    2017-01-01

    Animal models are commonly used in brain ageing research. Amongst these, models where rodents are exposed to d-galactose are held to recapitulate a number of features of ageing including neurobehavioral and neurochemical changes. However, results from animal studies are often inconsistent. To better understand the characteristics of the model and effects of d-galactose on neurobehavioral and neurochemical outcomes in rodents we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We applied random-effects meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of study features. Our results give an overview of the characteristics of the d-galactose rodent ageing model, including neurobehavioral and neurochemical outcomes. We found that few studies took measures to reduce risks of bias, and substantial heterogeneity in the reported effects of d-galactose in included studies. This highlights the need for improvements in the use of the d-galactose rodent ageing model if it is to provide useful in the development of drugs to treat human ageing.

  6. Scaling Analysis of Author Level Bibliometric Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna; Larsen, Birger

    2014-01-01

    Despite of the concerns from the bibliometric community, evaluation of the individual through bibliometric indices is already performed as a form of ‘pseudo peer review’ in selection of candidates for tenure, in background checks of potential employees’ publicationand citation impact......, and in appraisal of funding applications. As part of developing the ACUMEN portfolio we therefore undertook an extensive review of 114 bibliometric indicators in Wildgaard, Schneider and Larsen (2014) to identify 1) which author level indices are useful to document the effect of publication performance, 2......) identify which scientific activities it is possible to measure and with which indices, 3) analyse the applicability of these indices by discussing the strengths and weakness of each one, and 4) identify if there is a need for any additional novel indicators to measures the performance of individuals...

  7. Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow's Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2016-07-23

    This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new ), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow's milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p -value < 0.001 and R ² (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation ( p -value < 0.001) with R ² (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

  8. Stakeholder engagement: A green business model indicator

    OpenAIRE

    Abuzeinab, Amal; Arif, Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    PhD study This is an Open Access article and is freely available via the publisher's webpage. Follow the DOI link for full text. Green business models have the potential to deliver a much better performance compared to the conventional business models in this age of sustainability. Stakeholder engagement is considered one of the key elements to help facilitate an increased uptake of green business models. There is limited research available on principles and mechanisms to enhance stakeh...

  9. Regional knowledge economy development indicative planning system conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Davidovna Vaisman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research is the processes of Russian knowledge economy development, its progress on the regional level is taken as a theme, which determined the purpose of research: development of the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model. The methodological base of the research is the knowledge economy concept and supply and demand theory, the methods of comparative and system analysis and theoretical modeling; common generalization and classification methods and regression models are used in the work. As a result, we managed to create the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model, which includes the choice of the types of indicative plans and the justification for the complex of indicators according to the stated requirements to this complex. The model of supply and demand for knowledge dependency from the knowledge cost, allowing to determine the acceptable range for the indicators proceeding from the demand and supply levels and their interrelation, is developed. The obtained results may be used by the regional government authorities while planning the regional innovative development and consulting companies while making the proposals for this development

  10. Analysis and modeling of ensemble recordings from respiratory pre-motor neurons indicate changes in functional network architecture after acute hypoxia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto F Galán

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We have combined neurophysiologic recording, statistical analysis, and computational modeling to investigate the dynamics of the respiratory network in the brainstem. Using a multielectrode array, we recorded ensembles of respiratory neurons in perfused in situ rat preparations that produce spontaneous breathing patterns, focusing on inspiratory pre-motor neurons. We compared firing rates and neuronal synchronization among these neurons before and after a brief hypoxic stimulus. We observed a significant decrease in the number of spikes after stimulation, in part due to a transient slowing of the respiratory pattern. However, the median interspike interval did not change, suggesting that the firing threshold of the neurons was not affected but rather the synaptic input was. A bootstrap analysis of synchrony between spike trains revealed that, both before and after brief hypoxia, up to 45 % (but typically less than 5 % of coincident spikes across neuronal pairs was not explained by chance. Most likely, this synchrony resulted from common synaptic input to the pre-motor population, an example of stochastic synchronization. After brief hypoxia most pairs were less synchronized, although some were more, suggesting that the respiratory network was “rewired” transiently after the stimulus. To investigate this hypothesis, we created a simple computational model with feed-forward divergent connections along the inspiratory pathway. Assuming that 1 the number of divergent projections was not the same for all presynaptic cells, but rather spanned a wide range and 2 that the stimulus increased inhibition at the top of the network; this model reproduced the reduction in firing rate and bootstrap-corrected synchrony subsequent to hypoxic stimulation observed in our experimental data.

  11. Modelling the degradation of condition indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoskins, R.P.; Strbac, G. [UMIST, Manchester (United Kingdom). Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Electronics; Brint, A.T. [University of Salford (United Kingdom). Dept. of Computer and Mathematical Sciences

    1999-07-01

    To ensure that the electricity distribution network achieves satisfactory levels of reliability and safety it is necessary to have well-founded and justifiable asset management policies in place. For many items of electricity distribution equipment, failures have been rare and inferences about future lifetimes are difficult to make. The paper argues that in such situations, importance should be given to obtaining condition information to aid asset management. A key requirement in using such data is the capability to model changes in an item's condition and the Markov model is proposed as being particularly suitable. The application of the Markov model to a collection of oil condition data, recorded during maintenance activity, is explained. The impact of such a model in making asset management decisions is then illustrated. (author)

  12. Geographically weighted regression model on poverty indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slamet, I.; Nugroho, N. F. T. A.; Muslich

    2017-12-01

    In this research, we applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) for analyzing the poverty in Central Java. We consider Gaussian Kernel as weighted function. The GWR uses the diagonal matrix resulted from calculating kernel Gaussian function as a weighted function in the regression model. The kernel weights is used to handle spatial effects on the data so that a model can be obtained for each location. The purpose of this paper is to model of poverty percentage data in Central Java province using GWR with Gaussian kernel weighted function and to determine the influencing factors in each regency/city in Central Java province. Based on the research, we obtained geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel weighted function on poverty percentage data in Central Java province. We found that percentage of population working as farmers, population growth rate, percentage of households with regular sanitation, and BPJS beneficiaries are the variables that affect the percentage of poverty in Central Java province. In this research, we found the determination coefficient R2 are 68.64%. There are two categories of district which are influenced by different of significance factors.

  13. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    contrast, which may or may not be monotonically increasing with time. We also find that monotonic- ity seems to be related to the initial conditions of the model, which may be of potential interest in connection with debates regarding gravitational entropy and the arrow of time. 1. Introduction. An important question in ...

  14. Environmental problems indicator under environmental modeling toward sustainable development

    OpenAIRE

    P. Sutthichaimethee; W. Tanoamchard; P. Sawangwong; P Pachana; N. Witit-Anun

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to apply a model to the study and analysis of environmental and natural resource costs created in supply chains of goods and services produced in Thailand, and propose indicators for environmental problem management, caused by goods and services production, based on concepts of sustainable production and consumer behavior. The research showed that the highest environmental cost in terms of Natural Resource Materials was from pipelines and gas distribution, while the lowest ...

  15. Mental models as indicators of scientific thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derosa, Donald Anthony

    One goal of science education reform is student attainment of scientific literacy. Therefore, it is imperative for science educators to identify its salient elements. A dimension of scientific literacy that warrants careful consideration is scientific thinking and effective ways to foster scientific thinking among students. This study examined the use of mental models as evidence of scientific thinking in the context of two instructional approaches, transmissional and constructivist. Types of mental models, frequency of explanative information, and scores on problem solving transfer questions were measured and compared among subjects in each instructional context. Methods. Subjects consisted of sophomore biology students enrolled in general biology courses at three public high schools. The Group Assessment of Logical Thinking instrument was used to identify two equivalent groups with an N of 65. Each group was taught the molecular basis of sickle cell anemia and the principles of hemoglobin gel electrophoresis using one of the two instructional approaches at their schools during five instructional periods over the course of one week. Laboratory equipment and materials were provided by Boston University School of Medicine's MobileLab program. Following the instructional periods, each subject was asked to think aloud while responding to four problem solving transfer questions. Each response was audiotaped and videotaped. The interviews were transcribed and coded to identify types of mental models and explanative information. Subjects' answers to the problem solving transfer questions were scored using a rubric. Results. Students taught in a constructivist context tended to use more complete mental models than students taught in a transmissional context. Fifty-two percent of constructivist subjects and forty-four percent of transmissional subjects demonstrated evidence of relevant mental models. Overall fifty-two percent of the subjects expressed naive mental models

  16. Trade Specialization Indices: Two Competing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Saleh, Samsubar; Widodo, Tri

    2010-01-01

    Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index by Balassa (1965) is intensively applied in empirical studies on countries’ comparative advantage or trade specialization.Asymmetric problem in the criteria of RCA index encourages Dalum et al. (1998) and Laursen (1998) to make Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index. Thesetwo indexes are commonly employed in econometric models for analyzing countries’ trade specialization. This paper aims to compare theoretically and empirically the tw...

  17. Analysis of ESCO activities using country indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okay, Nesrin [Department of Management, Financial Engineering Program, Bogazici University, Bebek, 34342 Istanbul (Turkey); Akman, Ugur [Department of Chemical Engineering, Bogazici University, Bebek, 34342 Istanbul (Turkey)

    2010-12-15

    Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are private-sector instruments that offer energy-/emission-improvement (energy saving, energy efficiency, energy conservation and emission reduction) projects, or renewable-energy projects, in the developed and in some developing countries. There has been an increased interest for the provision of such energy services, driven by a restructuring of the gas and electricity sectors, and the push to mainstream sustainable forms of energy into the market. ESCOs are destined to deliver sustainable-energy solutions, especially in emerging markets. Literature reveals that energy/emission improvements of countries may be related to their innovation- and R and D-activity levels. In this work, we use a literature data on the activities and the sectors targeted by ESCOs in 38 countries, summarized in terms of the age of ESCO market (AEM), number of ESCO companies (NE), and total value of ESCO projects (VE). Along with the Global Innovation Index (GII) data of the countries, we investigate the relationships among the ESCO Indicators (EIs: AEM, NE, VE, sectors targeted by ESCOs), and the Country Indicators (CIs: GII and per-capita GDP, energy consumption, CO{sub 2} emission). We observe noteworthy dependencies between the EIs and CIs. Using the simple trend equations we estimate the missing VEs in the original data. We also project, as a hint for the size and orientation of the upcoming Turkish ESCO market, the set of EIs and the distribution of the sectors that are likely to be targeted by ESCOs in Turkey. (author)

  18. Exploring morphological indicators for improved model parameterization in transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumahor, Samuel K.; Vogel, Hans-Jörg

    2017-04-01

    Two phenomena that control transport of colloidal materials, including nanoparticles, are interaction at the air-water and solid-water interfaces for unsaturated flow. Current approaches for multiphase inverse modeling to quantify the associated processes utilize empirical parameters and/or assumptions to characterise these interactions. This introduces uncertainty in model outcomes. Two classical examples are: (i) application of the Young-Laplace Equation, assuming spherical air-water interfaces, to quantify interactions at the air-water interface and (ii) the choice of parameters that define the nature and shape of retention profiles for modeling straining at the solid-water interface. In this contribution, an alternate approach using some morphological indicators derived from X-ray micro-computed tomography (µ-CT) to quantify interaction at both the air-water interface and solid-water interface is presented. These indicators, related to air-water and solid-water interface densities, are thought to alleviate the deficiencies associated with modeling interaction at both the solid-water and air-water interfaces.

  19. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effort-reward imbalance model of workplace stress with indicators of immune function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddy, Pennie; Heckenberg, Rachael; Wertheim, Eleanor H; Kent, Stephen; Wright, Bradley J

    2016-12-01

    Despite considerable research into associations between the effort reward imbalance (ERI) model and various health outcomes over the past 20years, the underlying mechanisms responsible for the association remain unclear. Recently, ERI investigations have examined associations with immune sub-systems (e.g., leukocytes, cytokines and immunoglobulins). Synthesis of the amalgamated research evidence will aid clarity to this field of enquiry. We conducted a meta-analysis and reviewed the associations of ERI and over-commitment (OC) in the workplace with immunity. Electronic databases were searched with the phrase 'effort reward imbalance' which initially yielded 319 studies leading to 57 full text studies being screened. Seven studies that met inclusion criteria were combined using mixed and random effects models. Greater ERI was associated with lower immunity (r=-0.09, CI -0.14, -0.05, p<0.001). Sub-group analyses revealed the effect with mucosal immunity was stronger (r=-0.33, CI -0.47 to -0.18) than trends between both cytokine (r=-0.04, CI -0.07, -0.01) and leukocyte sub-groups (r=-0.02 CI -0.04, 0.01) respectively (k=7, N=9952). Over-commitment was also associated with lower immunity (r=-0.05, CI -0.09, 0.01, p=0.014); subgroup (leukocytes, cytokines, mucosal immunity) associations, however, were homogenous (Q=1.83, df=2, p=0.400, k=6, N=2358). Greater ERI and OC were both associated with lower immunity. The association between mucosal immunity and ERI was stronger than the cytokine and leukocyte sub-groups. OC moderated the relationship between ERI and immunity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Safety models incorporating graph theory based transit indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Liliana; Sayed, Tarek; Wahba, Mohamed M

    2013-01-01

    There is a considerable need for tools to enable the evaluation of the safety of transit networks at the planning stage. One interesting approach for the planning of public transportation systems is the study of networks. Network techniques involve the analysis of systems by viewing them as a graph composed of a set of vertices (nodes) and edges (links). Once the transport system is visualized as a graph, various network properties can be evaluated based on the relationships between the network elements. Several indicators can be calculated including connectivity, coverage, directness and complexity, among others. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between network-based transit indicators and safety. The study develops macro-level collision prediction models that explicitly incorporate transit physical and operational elements and transit network indicators as explanatory variables. Several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models were developed using a generalized linear regression technique, assuming a negative binomial error structure. The models were grouped into four main themes: transit infrastructure, transit network topology, transit route design, and transit performance and operations. The safety models showed that collisions were significantly associated with transit network properties such as: connectivity, coverage, overlapping degree and the Local Index of Transit Availability. As well, the models showed a significant relationship between collisions and some transit physical and operational attributes such as the number of routes, frequency of routes, bus density, length of bus and 3+ priority lanes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Moving Mini-Max - a new indicator for technical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Z. K. Silagadze

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new indicator for technical analysis. The indicator emphasizes maximums and minimums in price series with inherent smoothing and has a potential to be useful in both mechanical trading rules and chart pattern analysis.

  2. Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janardhanan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

  3. Analysis and Comparison of Overheating Indices in Energy Renovated Houses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psomas, Theofanis Ch.; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Duer, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    The scientific literature offers a number of methods for assessing the likelihood of overheating in buildings. The paper calculates eight well-documented indices for four representative family houses, from moderate and temperate climates, under different renovation processes (66 variants), with t......The scientific literature offers a number of methods for assessing the likelihood of overheating in buildings. The paper calculates eight well-documented indices for four representative family houses, from moderate and temperate climates, under different renovation processes (66 variants......), with the use of multi-zone energy software. In two out of four cases, the calculation included passive cooling measures for optimization purposes (shading, ventilative cooling). The analysis shows strong correlations between different methods-indices originating from the same comfort model theory independently...

  4. Performability indicators for the traffic analysis of wide area networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Platis, Agapios

    2003-01-01

    In connecting computing networks, reliability term is strongly related to the availability of connections of Wide Area networks (WANs) or Local Area networks (LANs). In this paper we will examine the network connections activity of a Greek University in order to provide two sources of information: The Quantity of Information Not Delivered (QIND) and the Information Flow Interruption (IFI). These indicators will provide us with the inference of information from observable characteristics of data flow(s), even when the data is encrypted or otherwise not directly available (traffic), which is lost due to failures or upgrades inside this network. The reliability analysis is obtained by collecting the network failures data (duration and frequency) and traffic (total and average) for a specified period of 1 year. It is assumed that the numerical analysis is based on the fact that the lifetime follows and exponential distribution (here as we are working on discrete time the distribution must be the geometric distribution). Hence a Markov chain model seems suitable for modelling the functioning of this system. An algorithm concentrates the results in a transition probability matrix and calculates the reward functions for the QIND/IFI indicators with the use of the power method. Finally, the application part provides an example of how final results can be used to evaluate the observed network

  5. Application of technical analysis indicators on a market data

    OpenAIRE

    Tabiš, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the thesis is test of current technical analysis indicators with the support of basic statistical software (Excel and PASW STATISTICS). During the test we will apply the correlation process in order to find two less similar markets. Subsequently, we will use these markets for testing the individual indicators of the analysis. The chosen indicators are those of the highest popularity as far as the profit/loss analysis is considered.

  6. Approaches to Bioeconomic Modelling in correlation with Consumer Model and Biodiversity Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipate Iudith

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analysed the characteristics of bio-economic models in agricultural systems and agro-biodiversity indicators. The classical bioeconomic models are used to analyze the human consumption of ecosystems for production. The analysis focuses on changes in a limited set of agrobiodiversity indicators that matter to human beings. In existing bioeconomic models incorporate ecological complexities and dynamics is limited. Although bioeconomic model provides useful methods to integrate economic values into environmental analyses, improved the dynamic interrelationships between natural processes and socio-economic systems is needed to allow an integrated assessment of multiple values. The overview will enable a more informed decision about whether and how bio-economic models/modeling can contribute to the development of integrated environmental decision support tools. The bio economic modeling it is important for evaluating the costs and benefits associated with environmental resource use.

  7. Applications of the Indicator Template for Measurement and Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Goethert, Wolfhart; Siviy, Jeannine

    2004-01-01

    ...) has developed to precisely describe an indicator including its construction, correct interpretation, and how it can be utilized to direct data collection and presentation and measurement and analysis processes...

  8. Genetic analysis of processed in-line mastitis indicator data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Peter; Løvendahl, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate heritability of elevated mastitis risk (EMR), a trait derived from in-line measurements of cell counts expressing risk of mastitis on a continuous scale, and its genetic correlation with in-line somatic cell counts. Log-transformed somatic cell counts (SCC; n...... on exponential smoothing of the SCC values followed by factor analysis for estimation of the latent variable EMR was used. Finally, EMR was expressed as a continuum on the interval [0;1] using sigmoid transformation. Thus, an EMR value close to zero indicates low risk of mastitis and a value close to one...... indicates high risk of mastitis. The EMR values were summarized for each cow using the log-transformed median EMR. A second trait was defined as the median of the log-transformed SCC values from 5 to 305 d in milk. A bivariate animal model was used for estimation of co-variance components for the 2 traits...

  9. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the eff...

  10. Rapid Benefit Indicators (RBI) Spatial Analysis Tools - Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Rapid Benefit Indicators (RBI) approach consists of five steps and is outlined in Assessing the Benefits of Wetland Restoration - A Rapid Benefits Indicators Approach for Decision Makers. This spatial analysis tool is intended to be used to analyze existing spatial informatio...

  11. Analyzing latent state-trait and multiple-indicator latent growth curve models as multilevel structural equation models

    OpenAIRE

    Geiser, Christian; Bishop, Jacob; Lockhart, Ginger; Shiffman, Saul; Grenard, Jerry L.

    2013-01-01

    Latent state-trait (LST) and latent growth curve (LGC) models are frequently used in the analysis of longitudinal data. Although it is well-known that standard single-indicator LGC models can be analyzed within either the structural equation modeling (SEM) or multilevel (ML; hierarchical linear modeling) frameworks, few researchers realize that LST and multivariate LGC models, which use multiple indicators at each time point, can also be specified as ML models. In the present paper, we demons...

  12. Analysis of auroral electrojet magnetic indices | Tijjani | Bayero ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using the values of R2, it can be seen that the models for AE and AL can be used to predict or make forecast of the behavior of the indices. It was also discovered that level (alpha) has more significant contributions in the behavior of the system than seasonal. Keywords: Magnetic indices, World Data Center, Auroral, Level, ...

  13. Mental retardation after prenatal exposure. Re-analysis indicated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, W.

    2000-01-01

    The current risk assessment for severe mental retardation after prenatal exposure to the A-bomb radiation is based on 21 cases exposed to more than 0.005 Gy, of which 17 were exposed in the most sensitive period 8-15 weeks p.c. The latest analysis, applying the best fitting model, indicates a threshold with a lower 95% bound of 0.06-0.31 Gy, depending on whether 2 cases with Down's syndrome are included or not. The authors have interpreted this as suggesting a threshold in the low-dose region. In the dose group 0.10-0.49 Gy, except one case with Down's syndrome there is only one other case, exposed 8 weeks p.c. to 0.14 Gy. However, in a RERF report (TR 13-91) concerning brain abnormalities detected by MRI in retarded persons, the same case is described. According to this report he was actually exposed to 0.86 Gy. The distance was 1060 m, and his mother exhibited severe epilation. These details indicate that the higher dose is correct and the lower dose is erroneous. In a small material the misclassification of one case has a deep influence on the result of the data analysis. Reclassification of this case will lead to a considerable change in the estimated threshold, notably in the 95% lower bound of the threshold. There will be no indication of severe retardation after less than 0.5 Gy even in the most sensitive period. This does not preclude a milder effect on intelligence from lower doses. The fraction of severe retardation after exposure to 1 Sv in the period 8-15 weeks p.c. has been estimated at 40%. The effect on intelligence score has been estimated at 30 IQ units per Sv in the same period. These estimates have been combined in ICRP 60 to create a model, based on a presumed normal distribution of IQ scores, according to which the final outcome for an individual is determined by his expected IQ without exposure. Thus the dose required to make an otherwise normal individual retarded would be high, while a much lower dose would be enough to bring an individual

  14. Sustainable Process Design under uncertainty analysis: targeting environmental indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    L. Gargalo, Carina; Gani, Rafiqul

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on uncertainty analysis of environmental indicators used to support sustainable process design efforts. To this end, the Life Cycle Assessment methodology is extended with a comprehensive uncertainty analysis to propagate the uncertainties in input LCA data to the environmental...

  15. Univariate and Multivariate Specification Search Indices in Covariance Structure Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Susan R.

    1993-01-01

    Simulated population data were used to compare relative performances of the modification index and C. Chou and P. M. Bentler's Lagrange multiplier test (a multivariate generalization of a modification index) for four levels of model misspecification. Both indices failed to recover the true model except at the lowest level of misspecification. (SLD)

  16. Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

    2018-06-01

    Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

  17. Transport energy consumption achievement based on indicator analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jian

    2017-06-01

    In order to evaluate the transport sustainability level for regions, the concept of achievement efficiency in transport energy consumption is initially suggested in this paper. The research object is not only for the energy consumption by transport operation but also the whole life of the transport procedure, which is the thought of life cycle assessment. And then, on the quantitative analysis to calculate the transport energy achievement efficiency of the regions, the indicators that can represent the achievement of transport energy consumption are convincingly found out by indicator theory. Next, concentration is focused on the transport related indicators and proper indicators are picked up from the candidate indicators, which were the affecting factors to this issue. After that, using the selected indicators, we introduce the method of data envelopment analysis to do quantitative analysis, which helps to get the achievement efficiency of transport energy among cities all over the world. The analysis result shows the efficient regions and the inefficient regions respectively. Furthermore, the detailed efficiency value of each region is also laid out clearly. For the improvement, the inadequate output or input variables of the inefficient regions were listed compared with the efficient regions so that corresponding transport policy implications can be resulted for the inefficient regions to reach high level sustainability.

  18. MUNICIPAL INDICATORS SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Saccol Ferreira

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the indicators of sustainable development in the municipalities of Chapeco , Joaçaba , Port Union and Mafra, which developed the urban and territorial expansion of the West and North of the Santa Catarina region during the twentieth century . Thus, the objective of the analysis is to identify the similarities and differences of municipal sustainable development of each municipality , proposing alternative ways to improve these indexes, through the concepts Sachs (1997. The work is guided by a comparative analysis of data considering the indicators in 2012 and 2014 , through a survey of documentary approach . From this analysis , identified and demonstrated the points with disabilities, but at the same time essential to raise the indices of sustainability of municipalities in socio-cultural terms, economic, environmental and political

  19. Analysis of the Main Indicators of the Bucharest Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this article is to achieve an analysis of the evolution and significance of the main indicators of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (stock exchange capitalization, BET index, value of the concluded transactions) over the last fifteen years. One of the significant elements in analyzing the performances of the capital market consist of the stock exchange capitalization which an essential indicator for characterizing of this domain of activity, mainly if considering the fact that it is u...

  20. Analysis of plant harvest indices for bioregenerative life support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velayudhan, A.; Kohlmann, K. L.; Westgate, P. J.; Ladisch, M. R.; Mitchell, C. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Harvest indices, which are measures of the ratio of edible to total plant weight, are redefined to include edible sugars derived from enzymatic hydrolysis of the cellulose content of inedible plant components. Compositional analysis and carbohydrate contents of rapeseed, rice, soybeans, cowpea, wheat, sweet potato, white potato, and lettuce were analyzed to develop such generalized harvest indices. Cellulose conversion is shown to extend considerably the food available from plants otherwise grown for their oil and protein content in a bioregenerative life support system.

  1. A comparison of two models for scaling health indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, P

    1982-09-01

    The measurement properties of a health status indicator are closely related to the scaling model on which it is based. The Thurstone and Bradley-Terry models are applied to paired comparisons data which had been used to scale the sleep category of the Nottingham Health Profile. The data in their original form are shown to be inadequately represented by either model. Weaknesses in the data are identified and the two scaling models are applied to the amended data. The results of applying two sets of scale values are compared.

  2. Conceptual Modeling of Performance Indicators of Higher Education Institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Kahveci, Tuba Canvar; Taşkın, Harun; Toklu, Merve Cengiz

    2013-01-01

    Measuring and analyzing any type of organization are carried out by different actors in the organization. The performance indicators of performance management system increase according to products or services of the organization. Also these indicators should be defined for all levels of the organization. Finally, all of these characteristics make the performance evaluation process more complex for organizations. In order to manage this complexity, the process should be modeled at the beginnin...

  3. Development: an Analysis of Concepts, Measurement and Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jair Soares Jr.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of a comprehensive analysis of the main forms of development measurement. Recognizing the level of complexity that the subject involves, aspects related to interpretations and dominant ideologies in development/growth concepts are shown initially. The second part of this work constitutes a critical analysis of forty-three of the most well-known national and international indicators used to measure thisphenomenon. It is imagined that this analysis can show the state of the art for constructing development indicators. The development process covers a complexity of relationships. Its analysis, therefore, cannot be restricted only to the economic dimension because, as a rule, the question is presented both in the media and aconsiderable part of specialized literature. Emphasis on this dimension has historic origins, which have already shown the fragility of this approach.

  4. Correlation and network analysis of global financial indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Deo, Nivedita

    2012-08-01

    Random matrix theory (RMT) and network methods are applied to investigate the correlation and network properties of 20 financial indices. The results are compared before and during the financial crisis of 2008. In the RMT method, the components of eigenvectors corresponding to the second largest eigenvalue form two clusters of indices in the positive and negative directions. The components of these two clusters switch in opposite directions during the crisis. The network analysis uses the Fruchterman-Reingold layout to find clusters in the network of indices at different thresholds. At a threshold of 0.6, before the crisis, financial indices corresponding to the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific form separate clusters. On the other hand, during the crisis at the same threshold, the American and European indices combine together to form a strongly linked cluster while the Asia-Pacific indices form a separate weakly linked cluster. If the value of the threshold is further increased to 0.9 then the European indices (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) are found to be the most tightly linked indices. The structure of the minimum spanning tree of financial indices is more starlike before the crisis and it changes to become more chainlike during the crisis. The average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to find a clearer cluster structure in the network of financial indices. The cophenetic correlation coefficients are calculated and found to increase significantly, which indicates that the hierarchy increases during the financial crisis. These results show that there is substantial change in the structure of the organization of financial indices during a financial crisis.

  5. Analysis of ESG indicators for measuring enterprise performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Chvátalová

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article authors focus on the analysis of the whole set of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG indicators for the elimination of double or triple effects within the next construction of methods for measuring corporate performance. They build on their previously published results (in Acta univ. agric. et silvic. Mendel. Brun., 2012. The partial actual selected results of a recently undertaken currently project entitled ‘Construction of Methods for Multifactorial Assessment of Company Complex Performance in Selected Sectors’ were used. This project was solved the research teams of the Faculty of Business and Management of Brno University Technology and Faculty of Business and Economics of Mendel University in Brno since 2011. Further theoretical resources in the environmental, social and corporate governance area, known indicator databases (namely Global Reporting Initiative, comparative analysis, resp. syntheses for identifying possible of common indicator properties were identified to classify indicator subsets to preclude double or even triple effect based on mathematical set theory (Venn diagrams. The indicator analysis in constructed multi-factorial methods contributes to precise decision making in management to improve corporate performance.

  6. SITUATION ANALYSIS AS INDICATOR OF FOOD SE- CURITY IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    SITUATION ANALYSIS AS INDICATOR OF FOOD SE-. CURITY IN LOW-INCOME RURAL COMMUNITIES. Wilna H Oldewage-Theron, Sara S Duvenage* & AA Egal. OPSOMMING. Ernstige armoede heers in die Kwa-Kwa gebied van die Vrystaat provinsie waar ongeveer 73% van die stedelike en plattelandse bevolking.

  7. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    B. Sakaa et al. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources management with artificial neural networks in the Saf-Saf river basin. (N-E of Algeria). Bachir Sakaa1, Hicham Chaffai*1, Badra Aoun Sebaiti2. , Azzedine Hani1. 1 Laboratoire Ressource en Eau et Developpement Durable, Departement de ...

  8. TU-EF-BRD-02: Indicators and Technique Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlone, M.

    2015-01-01

    Research related to quality and safety has been a staple of medical physics academic activities for a long time. From very early on, medical physicists have developed new radiation measurement equipment and analysis techniques, created ever increasingly accurate dose calculation models, and have vastly improved imaging, planning, and delivery techniques. These and other areas of interest have improved the quality and safety of radiotherapy for our patients. With the advent of TG-100, quality and safety is an area that will garner even more research interest in the future. As medical physicists pursue quality and safety research in greater numbers, it is worthwhile to consider what actually constitutes research on quality and safety. For example, should the development of algorithms for real-time EPID-based in-vivo dosimetry be defined as “quality and safety” research? How about the clinical implementation of such as system? Surely the application of failure modes and effects analysis to a clinical process would be considered quality and safety research, but is this type of research that should be included in the medical physics peer-reviewed literature? The answers to such questions are of critical importance to set researchers in a direction that will provide the greatest benefit to our field and the patients we serve. The purpose of this symposium is to consider what constitutes research in the arena of quality and safety and differentiate it from other research directions. The key distinction here is developing the tool itself (e.g. algorithms for EPID dosimetry) vs. studying the impact of the tool with some quantitative metric. Only the latter would I call quality and safety research. Issues of ‘basic’ versus ‘applied’ quality and safety research will be covered as well as how the research results should be structured to provide increasing levels of support that a quality and safety intervention is effective and sustainable. Examples from existing

  9. Evaluation of ozone exposure indices in exposure-response modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E H; Tingey, D T; Hogsett, W E

    1988-01-01

    In exposure-response modeling, a major concern is the numerical definition of exposure in relating crop loss to O3, yet few indices have been considered. This paper addresses research in which plant growth was regressed for soybean, wheat, cotton, corn, and sorghum against 613 numerical exposure indices using the Box-Tidwell model. When the minimum sum of squared errors criterion was used, optimum performance was not attained for any single index; however, near optimum performances were achieved by two censored cumulative indices and from a class of indices called the generalized, phenologically weighted, cumulative impact indices (GPWCIs). The top-performing GPWCIs accumulated concentrations, used sigmoid weighting schemes emphasizing O3 concentrations of 0.06 ppm (118 microg m(-3)) or higher, and had phenological weighting schemes with greatest weight occurring 20 to 40 days prior to crop maturity. These findings indicate that (1) peak concentrations are important, but lower concentrations should be included in the calculations, (2) increased plant sensitivity occurs between flowering and maturity, and (3) plants respond to cumulative exposure impact.

  10. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  11. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  12. Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

    OpenAIRE

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-01-01

    In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Caus...

  13. Modeling Windows in Energy Plus with Simple Performance Indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arasteh, Dariush; Kohler, Christian; Griffith, Brent

    2009-10-12

    The building energy simulation program, Energy Plus (E+), cannot use standard window performance indices (U, SHGC, VT) to model window energy impacts. Rather, E+ uses more accurate methods which require a physical description of the window. E+ needs to be able to accept U and SHGC indices as window descriptors because, often, these are all that is known about a window and because building codes, standards, and voluntary programs are developed using these terms. This paper outlines a procedure, developed for E+, which will allow it to use standard window performance indices to model window energy impacts. In this 'Block' model, a given U, SHGC, VT are mapped to the properties of a fictitious 'layer' in E+. For thermal conductance calculations, the 'Block' functions as a single solid layer. For solar optical calculations, the model begins by defining a solar transmittance (Ts) at normal incidence based on the SHGC. For properties at non-normal incidence angles, the 'Block' takes on the angular properties of multiple glazing layers; the number and type of layers defined by the U and SHGC. While this procedure is specific to E+, parts of it may have applicability to other window/building simulation programs.

  14. Analysis of Kerch by Local Indicators of Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazygula, E.; Kharlamova, M.; Kozlova, E.

    2017-11-01

    This article presents an analysis of the city of Kerch (Crimea Republic, Kerch Peninsula) in accordance with the local sustainable development indicators. The authors carried out the assessment of the existing environmental problems in the city which was necessary for the further development of the environmentally oriented infrastructure under various development scenarios. Due to the natural and economic factors, Kerch can develop both as an industrial and recreational centre of the peninsula. The analysis of the atmospheric air condition, use of water and energy resources and the waste management system was conducted. The presented results showed the presence of major environmental problems in almost all spheres.

  15. Analysis of Quality Indicators in ADS-B Messages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Tesi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There is lack of available statistical data in the field of quality indicators in ADS-B messages, particularly in Czech airspace. Quality indicators in the ADS-B message define if this message can be used by ATM applications. This article is devoted to the analysis of quality indicators in the ADS-B messages. The data collected in the Czech airspace during six months were analysed. These data were statistically evaluated. The main objective is the statistical evaluation of the data and comparing them with quality requirements in Europe. The article deals with results of the statistics and assessment of the level of quality. Results are satisfactory and similar to the results published by EUROCONTROL and FAA. According to the examined data, 86.42% of them meets the EASA requirements in RAD environment. As ADS-B is not mandatory yet, it is possible to state that these results are satisfying.

  16. Indicators Used in the Dynamic Analysis of Turnover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Loredana Ecobici

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic evolution of an indicator is an important aspect to be taken into consideration when analyzing the evolution in a company. Dynamic evolution uses a number of indicators that reveal aspects that the management of a company must introduce in the development strategy or in the rehabilitation process of a company. The purpose of this article is to analyse the dynamic evolution of the turnover at a company that operates in the field of industry. The finality of this article will result in a number of conclusions concerning the evolution of turnover analysed in the light of absolute modification, indices, growth rates and annual average rate of growth. The importance of the analysis of its evolution, stemming from the fact that it is in a relationship of perpetuous interdependence with the main economic factors that participate in the activity of production and marketing.

  17. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Robey, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models

  18. Functional multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Zoh, Roger S; Bazer, Fuller W; Wu, Guoyao; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-05-08

    Objective measures of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production by mammals are used to predict their energy expenditure. Since energy expenditure is not directly observable, it can be viewed as a latent construct with multiple physical indirect measures such as respiratory quotient, volumetric oxygen consumption, and volumetric carbon dioxide production. Metabolic rate is defined as the rate at which metabolism occurs in the body. Metabolic rate is also not directly observable. However, heat is produced as a result of metabolic processes within the body. Therefore, metabolic rate can be approximated by heat production plus some errors. While energy expenditure and metabolic rates are correlated, they are not equivalent. Energy expenditure results from physical function, while metabolism can occur within the body without the occurrence of physical activities. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach for studying the relationship between metabolic rate and indicators of energy expenditure. We do so by extending our previous work on MIMIC ME models to allow responses that are sparsely observed functional data, defining the sparse functional multiple indicators, multiple cause measurement error (FMIMIC ME) models. The mean curves in our proposed methodology are modeled using basis splines. A novel approach for estimating the variance of the classical measurement error based on functional principal components is presented. The model parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm and a discussion of the model's identifiability is provided. We show that the defined model is not a trivial extension of longitudinal or functional data methods, due to the presence of the latent construct. Results from its application to data collected on Zucker diabetic fatty rats are provided. Simulation results investigating the properties of our approach are also presented. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  19. A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosai, Susan

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

  20. Qualitative modelling macroeconomics indicators for prediction of progress branch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Luňáček

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A qualitative modelling philosophy has been developed in an effort to produce a general and reasonably unified common sense approach to the modelling of unique, complex and unsteady state systems. Economics, Ecology, Sociology and Politics are sciences, which study such systems. An integration of sub models from those sciences into supermodels is inevitable if realistic decision making tasks are analysed. Therefore conventional formal tools (e.g. statistics cannot be correctly applied because of lack of information. Qualitative variables are quantified using three values only – positive (increasing, zero (constant and negative (decreasing. Knowledge items of qualitative nature (e.g. if productivity goes up then profit does not decrease are often the only available information. The classical quantitative tools cannot deal with such information items. However, qualitative models can absorb shallow qualitative knowledge and generate all possible scenarios i.e. qualitative solutions. The complete list of scenarios guarantees that any analysis (decision making based on it does not ignore any promising solution. The case study of oil related macro economical risks is presented in details (15 variables e.g. Inflation, Corruption, 14 qualitative relations among the variables. No a priory know­ledge of qualitative analysis is required.

  1. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  2. Analysis of Urine as Indicators of Specific Body Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Souradeep; Saha, Triya; Narendrakumar, Uttamchand

    2017-11-01

    Urinalysis can be defined as a procedure for examining various factors of urine, which include physical properties, particulate matter, cells, casts, crystals, organisms and solutes. Urinalysis is recommended to be a part of the initial examination of all patients as its cheap, feasible and gives productive results. This paper focuses on the analysis of urine collected at specific body conditions. Here we illustrate the urine profile of different persons having various body conditions, which include, having urinary tract infection, undergoing strenuous exercise, having back pain regularly, having very low urine output and a person who is on 24 hours of diet. Examination of urine collected from different persons having specific body conditions usually helps us in the diagnosis of various diseases, which it indicates.

  3. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S

    2004-01-01

    for the estimation of the EFI. However none of these methods are found to be adequately robust and/or able to work on the low data input defined by the OMNIITOX Base Model (BM), i.e. a minimum of three acute EC50 values. Given the fact that the BM should be applicable to a significant number of chemicals......, this requirement follows from the current and the most likely future data availability as defined by the proposed EU chemicals policy REACH. In this paper, a theoretical elaboration of effect-based average approaches (arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median) and the non-effect based approach (PNEC) is made...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  4. The indicative analysis and ranking of human capital development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inessa, Gurban; Alexandr, Tarasyev

    2017-07-01

    In this article we discuss the rationale for the importance and effectiveness of the regions ranking as a tool for regional social and economic policies aimed to control the regional socio-economic development. A methodological approach to the determination of the human capital development level in the regions of the Russian Federation is provided focused on determining the quality of human capital in each region of the Russian Federation and the causes underlying this situation. The methodological apparatus is based on the indicative qualimetric analysis method that allows to convert various benchmarks expressed in different units in a comparable type. Also it is possible to receive and differentiate a comprehensive assessment of the human capital level in each region of the Russian Federation on the basis of the proposed classification. In this article we present the structure of the indicators system that simulates the human capital level by a number of descriptive components including demographic, educational, employment, research and socio-cultural components. In our research we found that in the overwhelming majority of the Russian Federation human capital is characterized mainly by a low development level. The system shows unstable dynamics in the human capital level through the Russian Federal Districts, as well as the leaders and laggards in the rating of the Russian Federation during the period 2000-2013. Our article presents the structure of a comprehensive assessment of the human capital level by providing estimates of its components.

  5. Profile analysis of treatment effect changes in eating disorder indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Se-Kang; Annunziato, Rachel A; Olatunji, Bunmi O

    2017-11-23

    We investigated differential treatment effects on specific eating disorder (ED) indicators to enhance conclusions about treatment efficacy. Profile Analysis via Multidimensional Scaling, which identifies core profiles in a population and interprets person profiles with core profile information, was utilized to identify core profiles from a sample of 5,177 patients who were repeatedly measured with the ED inventory-2 at admission and at discharge. To assess differential treatment effects for individual ED indicators, we compared the core profiles at admission with those at discharge. Three core profiles were identified and labeled as High Body Dissatisfaction with Low Bulimia (Core Profile 1), High Interoceptive Awareness with Low Body Dissatisfaction (Core Profile 2), and High Ineffectiveness with Low Bulimia (Core Profile 3). Treatment had the greatest effects on Core Profile 2. The patients whose profile patterns were similar to that of Core Profiles 1 and 2 were positively related with weight gain. However, treatment was least on Core Profile 3, and the patients whose profile patterns were like that of Core Profile 3 were negatively related with weight gain. In conclusion, those patients who fit Core Profile 3 may benefit from different treatment modalities than those that are standard in inpatient settings. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Effect of method and parameters of spectral analysis on selected indices of simulated Doppler spectra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaluzynski, K; Palko, T

    1993-05-01

    The sensitivity of Doppler spectral indices (mean frequency, maximum frequency, spectral broadening index and turbulence intensity) to the conditions of spectral analysis (estimation method, data window, smoothing window or model order) increases with decreasing signal bandwidth and growing index complexity. The bias of spectral estimate has a more important effect on these indices than its variance. A too low order, in the case of autoregressive modeling and minimum variance methods, and excessive smoothing, in the case of the FFT method, result in increased errors of Doppler spectral indices. There is a trade-off between the errors resulting from a short data window and those due to insufficient temporal resolution.

  7. Reference indices of hip structural analysis in Ukrainian women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Grygorieva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Nowadays, a comprehensive assessment of osteoporosis and the risk of osteoporotic fractures involves the combine use of bone mineral density (BMD, 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool, Trabecular Bone Score, and parameters of hip structural ana­lysis. In recent years, reference data on the three above-mentioned methods have been developed for the Ukrainian population, but there are no data on the latest methodology. The objective of the study was to assess the age characteristics of hip structural analysis parameters in Ukrainian women and to offer their reference values for use in clinical practice. Materials and methods. Using the dual energy X-ray absorptiometry method, we examined 690 healthy women aged 20–89 years wi­thout osteoporosis and other clinically significant diseases and conditions affecting the bone metabolism, without other accompanying pathology of hip joint. Results. The results of the study showed a significant effect of age on femoral strength index (FSI, cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI, cross-sectional area (CSA, distance from center of femoral head to center of femoral neck (d1, distance from center of femoral head to inter-trochanteric line (d2, mean femoral neck dia­meter (d3, distance from center of mass of femoral neck to superior neck margin (y, shaft angle (a and hip axis length (HAL indices, but not on parameters of neck/shaft angle (q. A significant decrease of FSI with age was established on the background on increase of CSMI, CSA and HAL parameters. Indices of height and body weight were reliably related with parameters of CSMI, CSA and HAL. FSI was significantly related to the body weight, but not to the height. In addition, it reliably correlated with BMD measured at femoral neck and lesser at total hip and lumbar spine. The HAL did not significant correlate with any of the measured BMD, which confirms its independent role in prediction of

  8. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINING THE INDICATORS OF TRACTIVE VEHICLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Golovchuk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research paper involves solving of the following tasks: 1 refinement of the mathematical model for determining the traction and dynamic, fuel and economic, environmental indicators of mobile energy facilities; 2 methodology development of theoretical studies of automatic control systems, static and dynamic characteristics automotive-tractor diesel with a gas turbine supercharger and a mobile power facility. Methodology. The work studies the working processes of vehicles and machine-tractor aggregates by mathematical simulation and the development of algorithms and programs for the calculation of these processes in actual operational conditions. The system of equations has been developed for theoretical research. It describes a nonlinear mathematical model of the automatic control system of an automotive-tractor diesel rotating frequency. In addition to the differential equations of the first and second order, equations are used in mathematical simulation of working processes of traction vehicles. These equations describe experimental characteristics of an automatic regulator, a high-pressure fuel pump, a turbocharger and an engine, as well as moments of engine mechanical losses and an external load. Findings. The developed mathematical model allows determining the effectiveness of new design, operational and technological developments, as well as various measures in order to improve the fuel-economic and environmental performances of vehicles and machine-tractor aggregates in operating conditions. Originality. For the first time, the mathematical model "Tractor driver – machine-tractor aggregate – road (field" was developed. It allows conducting research of transport tractor aggregates by driving cycles, taking into account the processes of starting and speeding up the mobile-power sources with gear shift. Practical value. In conditions of a protracted economic crisis, in the absence of the necessary equipment, instruments

  9. Bioeconomic model and selection indices in Aberdeen Angus cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, G S; Braccini Neto, J; Oaigen, R P; Cardoso, F F; Cobuci, J A; Kern, E L; Campos, L T; Bertoli, C D; McManus, C M

    2014-08-01

    A bioeconomic model was developed to calculate economic values for biological traits in full-cycle production systems and propose selection indices based on selection criteria used in the Brazilian Aberdeen Angus genetic breeding programme (PROMEBO). To assess the impact of changes in the performance of the traits on the profit of the production system, the initial values ​​of the traits were increased by 1%. The economic values for number of calves weaned (NCW) and slaughter weight (SW) were, respectively, R$ 6.65 and R$ 1.43/cow/year. The selection index at weaning showed a 44.77% emphasis on body weight, 14.24% for conformation, 30.36% for early maturing and 10.63% for muscle development. The eighteen-month index showed emphasis of 77.61% for body weight, 4.99% for conformation, 11.09% for early maturing, 6.10% for muscle development and 0.22% for scrotal circumference. NCW showed highest economic impact, and SW had important positive effect on the economics of the production system. The selection index proposed can be used by breeders and should contribute to greater profitability. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. Key Sustainability Performance Indicator Analysis for Czech Breweries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Kasem

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability performance can be said to be an ability of an organization to remain productive over time and hold on to its potential for maintaining long-term profitability. Since the brewery sector is one of the most important and leading markets in the foodstuff industry of the Czech Republic, this study depicts the Czech breweries’ formal entry into sustainability reporting and performance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an efficiency level evaluation which would represent the level of corporate performance of Czech breweries. For this reason, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA is introduced. In order to apply it, we utilize a set of key performance indicators (KPIs based on two international standard frameworks: the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI and its GRI 4 guidelines, and the guideline KPIs for ESG 3.0, which was published by the DVFA Society. Four sustainability dimensions (economic, environmental, social and governance are covered, making it thus possible to adequately evaluate sustainability performance in Czech breweries. The main output is not only the efficiency score of the company but also the input weights. These weights are used to determine the contribution of particular criteria to the breweries’ achieved score. According to the achieved efficiency results for Czech breweries, the percentage of women supervising the company does not affect the sustainability performance.

  11. Enzymes/non-enzymes classification model complexity based on composition, sequence, 3D and topological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munteanu, Cristian Robert; González-Díaz, Humberto; Magalhães, Alexandre L

    2008-09-21

    The huge amount of new proteins that need a fast enzymatic activity characterization creates demands of protein QSAR theoretical models. The protein parameters that can be used for an enzyme/non-enzyme classification includes the simpler indices such as composition, sequence and connectivity, also called topological indices (TIs) and the computationally expensive 3D descriptors. A comparison of the 3D versus lower dimension indices has not been reported with respect to the power of discrimination of proteins according to enzyme action. A set of 966 proteins (enzymes and non-enzymes) whose structural characteristics are provided by PDB/DSSP files was analyzed with Python/Biopython scripts, STATISTICA and Weka. The list of indices includes, but it is not restricted to pure composition indices (residue fractions), DSSP secondary structure protein composition and 3D indices (surface and access). We also used mixed indices such as composition-sequence indices (Chou's pseudo-amino acid compositions or coupling numbers), 3D-composition (surface fractions) and DSSP secondary structure amino acid composition/propensities (obtained with our Prot-2S Web tool). In addition, we extend and test for the first time several classic TIs for the Randic's protein sequence Star graphs using our Sequence to Star Graph (S2SG) Python application. All the indices were processed with general discriminant analysis models (GDA), neural networks (NN) and machine learning (ML) methods and the results are presented versus complexity, average of Shannon's information entropy (Sh) and data/method type. This study compares for the first time all these classes of indices to assess the ratios between model accuracy and indices/model complexity in enzyme/non-enzyme discrimination. The use of different methods and complexity of data shows that one cannot establish a direct relation between the complexity and the accuracy of the model.

  12. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2007-01-01

    The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

  13. Spectral Analysis of Geomagnetic Activity Indices and Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung-Hee Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Solar variability is widely known to affect the interplanetary space and in turn the Earth’s electromagnetical environment on the basis of common periodicities in the solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The goal of this study is twofold. Firstly, we attempt to associate modes by comparing a temporal behavior of the power of geomagnetic activity parameters since it is barely sufficient searching for common peaks with a similar periodicity in order to causally correlate geomagnetic activity parameters. As a result of the wavelet transform analysis we are able to obtain information on the temporal behavior of the power in the velocity of the solar wind, the number density of protons in the solar wind, the AE index, the Dst index, the interplanetary magnetic field, B and its three components of the GSM coordinate system, BX, BY, BZ. Secondly, we also attempt to search for any signatures of influence on the space environment near the Earth by inner planets orbiting around the Sun. Our main findings are as follows: (1 Parameters we have investigated show periodicities of ~ 27 days, ~ 13.5 days, ~ 9 days. (2 The peaks in the power spectrum of BZ appear to be split due to an unknown agent. (3 For some modes powers are not present all the time and intervals showing high powers do not always coincide. (4 Noticeable peaks do not emerge at those frequencies corresponding to the synodic and/or sidereal periods of Mercury and Venus, which leads us to conclude that the Earth’s space environment is not subject to the shadow of the inner planets as suggested earlier.

  14. A System of Indicators for Financial Analysis of the Municipal Real Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Feschiyan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a system of financial indicators for the efficiency of use of municipal real property. Such a system must provide for meeting the information needs of a number of internal and external consumers and is of primary significance in the analysis of municipalities’ overall financial condition. The following may be pointed out as the major aspects of the practical analysis: i the analysis of the municipality’s provision with immoveable property; ii the analysis of the efficient use of certain categories of municipal real property. The paper aims at clarifying the major moments in the analysis of the structure, composition, and effective use of municipal real property, and the determination of definite indicators to be applied to this analysis oriented towards its implementation. The wide variety of parameters is reduced to a system of 16 indicators: reporting value, depreciation, ratio of replacement, ratio of cost efficiency, ratio of revenue efficiency, return on total assets, return on revenues, return on expenses, ratio of the fitness, ratio of the repair, ratio of real energy provision, ratio of workload, present value of a series of regular cash flows, equivalent yield model, return on investment, return on investment. The paper presents the structure and content of the indicators of the analysis of the municipal real property, as well as the input of these indicators. The estimation (values necessary to determine the indicators, the indicators themselves and their meaning make it possible to study the effectiveness of the operations (functioning of the municipal real property in terms of description of its physical condition, structure, content, purpose and functions, which generates revenues or brings expenditures to the municipality. The system of indicators provides for decision making with a view to boosting the efficiency of public sector management and more specifically – the management of municipal real property.

  15. Analysis of academic performance management indicators of IFES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima de Souza Freire

    2008-07-01

    self interest with their own training, as measured by their success ratio and greater dedication to their under graduate course. In the same direction there has been found a favourable effect of the number of students-workers ratio. Nevertheless, no positive effect of the costs per student ratio has been detected as expected, considering the desirable positive influence of such indicator in the quality of education. Key-words: Performance Indicators, Enade, IFES.

  16. Biochemical and hematological indicators in model of total body irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubner, D; Gisone, P.; Perez, M.R.; Barboza, M.; Luchetta, P.; Longoni, H.; Sorrentino, M.; Robison, A.

    1998-01-01

    With the purpose of evaluating the applicability of several biological indicators in accidental overexposures a study was carried out in 20 patients undergoing therapeutical total body irradiation (TBI). The following parameters were evaluated: a) Oxidative stress indicators: erythrocyte superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase activity (CAT), lipo peroxyde levels (TBARS) and total plasma antioxidant activity (TAA). b) Haematological indicators: reticulocyte maturity index (RMI) and charges in lymphocyte subpopulations. Non significant changes in SOD and CAT activity were observed. Significant higher TBARS levels were found in patients with unfavorable post-BTM course without any significant correlation with TAA. RMI decreased early and dropped to zero in most of the patients and rose several days prior to reticulocyte, neutrophils and platelets counts. A significant decrease in absolute counts of all lymphocyte subpopulations was observed during TBI, particularly for B lymphocytes. A subpopulation of natural killer (NK) cells (CD16+/ CD 56 +) showed a relative higher radioresistance. Cytotoxic activity was significantly decreased after TBI. These data suggest that TBARS could provide an useful evolutive indicator in accidental over exposure d patients and RMI is an early indicator of bone marrow recovery after radioinduced aplasia. The implications of the different radiosensitivities within the NK subsets remains unanswered. (author) [es

  17. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  18. The Analysis of Differences in Residential Property Price Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kokot Sebastian

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Residential property price indices can serve as a useful tool in the practice of real property market analysts, investment advisers, property developers, certified property appraisers, estate agents and managers. They can also be applied in property price valorization in specific legal positions. The Polish Act on Real Estate Management puts an obligation on the President of the Central Statistical Office to announce real property price indices, but the CSO fails to fulfill this obligation. The author’s rationale for this article is to contribute to works on rules of how to build property price indices. Presented within are the results of research on determining the price indices of such types of residential property as: a part of a building constituting a separate property and strata titles in housing cooperatives. The flats were divided into categories by floor area and by their location in 16 voivodeship capitals. The major purpose of the study is to prove that the prices of flats of different floor area change at different rates. Consequently, it seems worth considering whether a more detailed segmentation of the real estate market would be worthwhile for the sake of more accurate real property price indicators.

  19. Can Agrometeorological Indices of Adverse Weather Conditions Help to Improve Yield Prediction by Crop Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branislava Lalić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of adverse weather conditions (AWCs on crop production is random in both time and space and depends on factors such as severity, previous agrometeorological conditions, and plant vulnerability at a specific crop development stage. Any exclusion or improper treatment of any of these factors can cause crop models to produce significant under- or overestimates of yield. The analysis presented in this paper focuses on a range of agrometeorological indices (AMI related to AWCs that might affect real yield as well as simulated yield. For this purpose, the analysis addressed four indicators of extreme temperatures and three indicators of dry conditions during the growth period of maize and winter wheat in Austria, Croatia, Serbia, Slovakia, and Sweden. It is shown that increases in the number and intensity of AWCs cannot be unambiguously associated with increased deviations in simulated yields. The identified correlations indicate an increase in modeling uncertainty. This finding represents important information for the crop modeling community. Additionally, it opens a window of opportunity for a statistical (“event scenario” approach based on correlations between agrometeorological indices of AWCs and crop yield data series. This approach can provide scenarios for certain locations, crop types, and AWC patterns and, therefore, improve yield forecasting in the presence of AWCs.

  20. A Hierarchical Aggregation Approach for Indicators Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sadegh Pakkar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This research proposes a hierarchical aggregation approach using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP for indicators. The core logic of the proposed approach is to reflect the hierarchical structures of indicators and their relative priorities in constructing composite indicators (CIs, simultaneously. Under hierarchical structures, the indicators of similar characteristics can be grouped into sub-categories and further into categories. According to this approach, we define a domain of composite losses, i.e., a reduction in CI values, based on two sets of weights. The first set represents the weights of indicators for each Decision Making Unit (DMU with the minimal composite loss, and the second set represents the weights of indicators bounded by AHP with the maximal composite loss. Using a parametric distance model, we explore various ranking positions for DMUs while the indicator weights obtained from a three-level DEA-based CI model shift towards the corresponding weights bounded by AHP. An illustrative example of road safety performance indicators (SPIs for a set of European countries highlights the usefulness of the proposed approach.

  1. Scaling Analysis of Author-Level Bibliometric Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth; Larsen, Birger

    2014-01-01

    Despite of the concerns from the bibliometric community, evaluation of the individual through bibliometric indices is already performed as a form of ‘pseudo peer review’ in selection of candidates for tenure, in background checks of potential employees’ publicationand citation impact, and in appr......Despite of the concerns from the bibliometric community, evaluation of the individual through bibliometric indices is already performed as a form of ‘pseudo peer review’ in selection of candidates for tenure, in background checks of potential employees’ publicationand citation impact......, and in appraisal of funding applications. We investigate the role of central and isolated indicators in the fields of Astronomy, Environmental Science, Philosophy and Public Health and the effect these have on author-rankings....

  2. Causal Indicator Models Have Nothing to Do with Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.; Breivik, Einar

    2016-01-01

    In this article, Roy Howell, and Einar Breivik, congratulate Aguirre-Urreta, M. I., Rönkkö, M., & Marakas, G. M., for their work (2016) "Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement," Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(3), 75-97. doi:10.1080/15366367.2016.1205935. They call it…

  3. Geographic analysis of forest health indicators using spatial scan statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Kurt H. Riitters

    2003-01-01

    Forest health analysts seek to define the location, extent, and magnitude of changes in forest ecosystems, to explain the observed changes when possible, and to draw attention to the unexplained changes for further investigation. The data come from a variety of sources including satellite images, field plot measurements, and low-altitude aerial surveys. Indicators...

  4. Chronic Absenteeism: A Key Indicator of Student Success. Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafa, Alyssa

    2017-01-01

    Research shows that chronic absenteeism can affect academic performance in later grades and is a key early warning sign that a student is more likely to drop out of high school. Several states enacted legislation to address this issue, and many states are currently discussing the utility of chronic absenteeism as an indicator of school quality or…

  5. Bayesian analysis of allozyme markers indicates a single genetic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kingklip Genypterus capensis inhabit deep continental shelf and slope waters off southern Africa and are now largely harvested as a bycatch in trawl and longline fisheries for Cape hakes Merluccius spp. Regional differences in growth, vertebral count and otolith morphology indicate that kingklip may consist of three stocks.

  6. Genetic analysis of field and physiological indicators of drought ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-10-10

    Oct 10, 2011 ... indicating the involvement of both additive and non-additive gene action in their inheritance. Ys, STI and. WUE revealed highly significant differences for SCA, hence non-additive gene action was predominant for these traits. The best general combiners with positive effects, for improvement of Yp, Ys, STI, ...

  7. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  8. Mathematical model for estimating of technical and technological indicators of railway stations operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.M. Kozachenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article aims to create a mathematical model of the railway station functioning for the solving of problems of station technology development on the plan-schedule basis. Methodology. The methods of graph theory and object-oriented analysis are used as research methods. The model of the station activity plan-schedule includes a model of technical equipment of the station (plan-schedule net and a model of the station functioning , which are formalized on the basis of parametric graphs. Findings. The presented model is implemented as an application to the graphics package AutoCAD. The software is developed in Visual LISP and Visual Basic. Taking into account that the construction of the plan-schedule is mostly a traditional process of adding, deleting, and modifying of icons, the developed interface is intuitively understandable for a technologist and practically does not require additional training. Originality. A mathematical model was created on the basis of the theory of graphs and object-oriented analysis in order to evaluate the technical and process of railway stations indicators; it is focused on solving problems of technology development of their work. Practical value. The proposed mathematical model is implemented as an application to the graphics package of AutoCAD. The presence of a mathematical model allows carrying out an automatic analysis of the plan-schedule and, thereby, reducing the period of its creation more than twice.

  9. A decision model to priorotise logistics performance indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Kucukaltan, Berk

    2016-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University London Performance measurement is an important concern that has recently attracted much attention in the logistics area from both practitioners and academics. The performance measurement of logistics companies is based upon diverse performance indicators. However, to date, limited attention has been paid to the performance measurement of logistics companies and, also, performance measureme...

  10. Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

  11. Soil salinity detection from satellite image analysis: an integrated approach of salinity indices and field data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morshed, Md Manjur; Islam, Md Tazmul; Jamil, Raihan

    2016-02-01

    This paper attempts to detect soil salinity from satellite image analysis using remote sensing and geographic information system. Salinity intrusion is a common problem for the coastal regions of the world. Traditional salinity detection techniques by field survey and sampling are time-consuming and expensive. Remote sensing and geographic information system offer economic and efficient salinity detection, monitoring, and mapping. To predict soil salinity, an integrated approach of salinity indices and field data was used to develop a multiple regression equation. The correlations between different indices and field data of soil salinity were calculated to find out the highly correlated indices. The best regression model was selected considering the high R (2) value, low P value, and low Akaike's Information Criterion. About 20% variation was observed between the field data and predicted EC from the satellite image analysis. The precision of this salinity detection technique depends on the accuracy and uniform distribution of field data.

  12. Should the indications for prenatal chromosome analysis be changed?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philip, J; Bang, J; Madsen, Mette

    1977-01-01

    Amniocentesis for chromosome analysis was performed in 1086 pergnant women, 739 of whom had an increased risk of giving birth to a child with chromosome abnormalities. Such abnormalities were found in almost identical proportions among the fetuses with an increased risk (1.2%) and among those...

  13. The impact of removing financial incentives from clinical quality indicators: longitudinal analysis of four Kaiser Permanente indicators.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lester, H.; Schmittdiel, J.; Selby, J.; Fireman, B.; Campbell, S.M.; Lee, J.; Whippy, A.; Madvig, P.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of financial incentives on four clinical quality indicators common to pay for performance plans in the United Kingdom and at Kaiser Permanente in California. DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis. SETTING: 35 medical facilities of Kaiser Permanente Northern California,

  14. Quality indicators for the analysis of communication in an online course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Pezzotti

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the development and validation of quality indicators for analyzing forums interactions in an online course in biology teaching. The aim is to evaluate the quality of communication so as to strengthen the tutor’s role and help students learn fundamental biology concepts while enhancing their collaboration competencies. The indicators are used to analyze cognitive, metacognitive and relational aspects, drawing on a content analysis methodology. The model appears to have a wide range of possible applications in other online courses.

  15. ARMA-GARCH Model and temporal precedence between stock indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Faced with the need for risk valuation of financial assets, investors demand sophisticated methods of modeling that can judge the variability of their investments. At the same time, financial globalization has been characterized by common movements and trends between different international markets. In this context, the main objective of this paper was to model the statistical volatility of the Bovespa Index (Ibovespa and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, using ARMA-GARCH adjustments, in addition to checking the existence of a long- -term balance and temporal precedence between these variables, using the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests, respectively. The results established a higher heterogeneous variance for Ibovespa and the existence of temporal precedence for the Dow Jones Index, despite the absence of any long-term balance between the series. It is understood that the latter behavior may have been caused by the existing difference between the conditional heteroscedasticity of each index.

  16. RISK ANALYSIS ON MEASURE OF FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES

    OpenAIRE

    Lima, André Soares de Menezes; Lima, Nilton Cesar; Souza, Gustavo Henrique Silva de; Martins, Vidigal Fernandes

    2016-01-01

    The construction companies that choose to participate in the execution of public works are exposed to various risks while performing their activities. Many of these works are paralyzed due to the fact that companies cannot afford the high costs of their implementation. Given this fact, this study sought to identify, through the analysis of the financial statements of the heavy construction companies listed on Bovespa, the risks to which these contractors are exposed. It was possible to note t...

  17. CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE AUDIT COMMITTEE AND STRUCTURAL INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FÜLÖP MELINDA TIMEA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The main role of corporate governance is to restore market confidence and in this process plays an important role the audit committee. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the correlations between the Audit Committee and structural indicators. Considering the achievement of the objectives proposed in this research, our research is based on a deductive approach from general aspects to particular aspects that combines quantitative and qualitative studies. Theoretical knowledge is used for a better understanding of a phenomenon and not for making assumptions. Thus, in order to achieve our study, we selected 25 companies listed on Berlin Stock Exchange. Following this study, we concluded that the role of the audit committee is crucial.

  18. CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE AUDIT COMMITTEE AND PROFITABILITY INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MELINDA TIMEA FÜLÖP

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The main role of corporate governance is to restore market confidence and in this process plays an important role the audit committee. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the correlations between the Audit Committee and profitability indicators. Considering the achievement of the objectives proposed in this research, our research is based on a deductive approach from general aspects to particular aspects that combines quantitative and qualitative studies. Theoretical knowledge is used for a better understanding of a phenomenon and not for making assumptions. Thus, in order to achieve our study, we selected 25 companies listed on Berlin Stock Exchange. Following this study, we concluded that the role of the audit committee is crucial.

  19. Market Potential Indicators- a Comparative Analysis of Brazil and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. H. Abbasi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relations between the market potential indicators and their subsequent impact on the investment decision factors. After discussing the various elements in the form of index and their various dimensions that distinguish countries capabilities and their potentials, we will analyze how Brazil and India are coping with the requirement of the investment opportunities and how they fared when compared to each other. The last section systematizes a few perspectives regarding the two countries and what policies should be adopted by them to compete with the other developing and developed nations. The various economic reforms can help these two countries to be in the league of front runner among the emerging markets.

  20. Market Potential Indicators- a Comparative Analysis of Brazil and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehtesham Husain Abbasi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relations between the market potential indicators and their subsequent impact on the investment decision factors. After discussing the various elements in the form of index and their various dimensions that distinguish countries capabilities and their potentials, we will analyze how Brazil and India are coping with the requirement of the investment opportunities and how they fared when compared to each other. The last section systematizes a few perspectives regarding the two countries and what policies should be adopted by them to compete with the other developing and developed nations. The various economic reforms can help these two countries to be in the league of front runner among the emerging markets.

  1. Analysis of the changes in keratoplasty indications and preferred techniques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan J Lang

    Full Text Available Recently, novel techniques introduced to the field of corneal surgery, e.g. Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK and corneal crosslinking, extended the therapeutic options. Additionally contact lens fitting has developed new alternatives. We herein investigated, whether these techniques have affected volume and spectrum of indications of keratoplasties in both a center more specialized in treating Fuchs' dystrophy (center 1 and a second center that is more specialized in treating keratoconus (center 2.We retrospectively reviewed the waiting lists for indication, transplantation technique and the patients' travel distances to the hospital at both centers.We reviewed a total of 3778 procedures. Fuchs' dystrophy increased at center 1 from 17% (42 to 44% (150 and from 13% (27 to 23% (62 at center 2. In center 1, DMEK increased from zero percent in 2010 to 51% in 2013. In center 2, DMEK was not performed until 2013. The percentage of patients with keratoconus slightly decreased from 15% (36 in 2009 vs. 12% (40 in 2013 in center 1. The respective percentages in center 2 were 28% (57 and 19% (51. In both centers, the patients' travel distances increased.The results from center 1 suggest that DMEK might increase the total number of keratoplasties. The increase in travel distance suggests that this cannot be fully attributed to recruiting the less advanced patients from the hospital proximity. The increase is rather due to more referrals from other regions. The decrease of keratoconus patients in both centers is surprising and may be attributed to optimized contact lens fitting or even to the effect corneal crosslinking procedure.

  2. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  3. Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

  4. SPECTRAL COLOR INDICES BASED GEOSPATIAL MODELING OF SOIL ORGANIC MATTER IN CHITWAN DISTRICT, NEPAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. K. Mandal

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Space Technology provides a resourceful-cost effective means to assess soil nutrients essential for soil management plan. Soil organic matter (SOM is one of valuable controlling productivity of crops by providing nutrient in farming systems. Geospatial modeling of soil organic matter is essential if there is unavailability of soil test laboratories and its strong spatial correlation. In the present analysis, soil organic matter is modeled from satellite image derived spectral color indices. Brightness Index (BI, Coloration Index (CI, Hue Index (HI, Redness Index (RI and Saturation Index (SI were calculated by converting DN value to radiance and radiance to reflectance from Thematic Mapper image. Geospatial model was developed by regressing SOM with color indices and producing multiple regression model using stepwise regression technique. The multiple regression equation between SOM and spectral indices was significant with R = 0. 56 at 95% confidence level. The resulting MLR equation was then used for the spatial prediction for the entire study area. Redness Index was found higher significance in estimating the SOM. It was used to predict SOM as auxiliary variables using cokringing spatial interpolation technique. It was tested in seven VDCs of Chitwan district of Nepal using Thematic Mapper remotely sensed data. SOM was found to be measured ranging from 0.15% to 4.75 %, with a mean of 2.24 %. Remotely sensed data derived spectral color indices have the potential as useful auxiliary variables for estimating SOM content to generate soil fertility management plans.

  5. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  6. [Comparative analysis of efficiency indicators in ambulatory surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Ortega, María; Porrero Carro, José Luis; Aranaz Andrés, Jesús María; Castillo Fe, María José; Alonso García, María Teresa; Sánchez-Cabezudo Díaz-Guerra, Carlos

    2017-05-25

    To find comparative elements for quality control in major ambulatory surgery (MAS) units. Descriptive and comparative study of the Ambulatory Care Index (AI) and Substitution Index (SI) in the Santa Cristina Hospital Surgery Service (Madrid, Spain) compared to Key Indicators (KI) of the National Health Service (NHS). 7,817 MAS procedures (between 2006 and 2014) were analysed. The average annual AI was 54%, higher (p <0.0001) than «ambulatory surgery» KI. The hernia outpatient procedures (average 72%) were also superior to the national KI (p <0.0001), but ambulatory haemorrhoidectomy (average 33.6%) was clearly lower (p <0.0001). KI of the NHS are useful and allow to establish a proper development in the global AI and hernia outpatient surgery with opportunities for improvement in haemorrhoidectomy. Their collection should be careful, not including minor surgeries. Also, their usefulness could be increased if data was broken down by speciality and by complexity. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. A Descriptive Analysis of the Eastern Cape School Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ncanywa

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to analyse the trends of education indicators that affect efficiency at schools in the Eastern Cape in the period 2009 to 2013. The focus is on the state of public ordinary schools which include primary and secondary schools from grade one to grade twelve. The province is regarded as a poor province as it constituted 95% of quintile one to three schools which are declared as ‘no fee schools’. There had been decline in learner performance as learners’ progress to higher grades and a drastic decline in important subjects such as Mathematics.  province had a significant number of educators with 16 years’ experience and an average of 45% under-qualified educators in 2013. There were variations in educator learner ratios per district with larger ratios found in the former Transkei. The province progressed well in learner transport, learner teacher support material and school nutrition programmes. There was no virtual change in infrastructural developments. Education in schools should be provided in a manner that ensures learners can realise their potential and aspirations, in schools that facilitate learning and reduce societal disparities.

  8. Use of Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict Indicator Organism Concentrations in an Urban Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mas, D. M.; Ahlfeld, D. P.

    2004-05-01

    Forecasting stream water quality is important for numerous aspects of resource protection and management. Fecal coliform and enteroccocus are primary indicator organisms used to assess potential pathogen contamination. Consequently, modeling the occurrence and concentration of fecal coliform and enterococcus is an important tool in watershed management. In addition, analyzing the relationship between model input and predicted indicator organisms is useful for elucidating possible sources of contamination and mechanisms of transport. While many process-based, statistical, and empirical models exist for water quality prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) models are increasingly being used for forecasting of water resources variables because ANNs are often capable of modeling complex systems for which behavioral rules are either unknown or difficult to simulate. The performance of ANNs compared to more established modeling approaches such as multiple linear regression (MLR) remains an importance research question. Data collected the U.S. Geological Survey in the lower Charles River in Massachusetts, USA in 1999-2000 was examined to determine correlation between various water quality constituents and indicator organisms and to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and indicator organism concentrations. Using the results of the statistical analysis to guide the selection of explanatory variables, MLR was performed to develop predictive equations for wet weather and dry weather conditions. The results show that the best-performing predictor variables are generally consistent for both indicator organisms considered. In addition, the regression equations show increasing indicator organism concentrations as a function of suspended sediment concentrations and length of time since last precipitation event, suggesting accumulation and wash off as a key mechanism of pathogen transport under wet weather conditions. This research also presents the

  9. Standards of care and quality indicators for multidisciplinary care models for psoriatic arthritis in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gratacós, Jordi; Luelmo, Jesús; Rodríguez, Jesús; Notario, Jaume; Marco, Teresa Navío; de la Cueva, Pablo; Busquets, Manel Pujol; Font, Mercè García; Joven, Beatriz; Rivera, Raquel; Vega, Jose Luis Alvarez; Álvarez, Antonio Javier Chaves; Parera, Ricardo Sánchez; Carrascosa, Jose Carlos Ruiz; Martínez, Fernando José Rodríguez; Sánchez, José Pardo; Olmos, Carlos Feced; Pujol, Conrad; Galindez, Eva; Barrio, Silvia Pérez; Arana, Ana Urruticoechea; Hergueta, Mercedes; Coto, Pablo; Queiro, Rubén

    2018-02-07

    To define and give priority to standards of care and quality indicators of multidisciplinary care for patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). A systematic literature review on PsA standards of care and quality indicators was performed. An expert panel of rheumatologists and dermatologists who provide multidisciplinary care was established. In a consensus meeting group, the experts discussed and developed the standards of care and quality indicators and graded their priority, agreement and also the feasibility (only for quality indicators) following qualitative methodology and a Delphi process. Afterwards, these results were discussed with 2 focus groups, 1 with patients, another with health managers. A descriptive analysis is presented. We obtained 25 standards of care (9 of structure, 9 of process, 7 of results) and 24 quality indicators (2 of structure, 5 of process, 17 of results). Standards of care include relevant aspects in the multidisciplinary care of PsA patients like an appropriate physical infrastructure and technical equipment, the access to nursing care, labs and imaging techniques, other health professionals and treatments, or the development of care plans. Regarding quality indicators, the definition of multidisciplinary care model objectives and referral criteria, the establishment of responsibilities and coordination among professionals and the active evaluation of patients and data collection were given a high priority. Patients considered all of them as important. This set of standards of care and quality indicators for the multidisciplinary care of patients with PsA should help improve quality of care in these patients.

  10. Dynamic energy conservation model REDUCE. Extension with experience curves, energy efficiency indicators and user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uyterlinde, M.A.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of the energy conservation model REDUCE (Reduction of Energy Demand by Utilization of Conservation of Energy) is the evaluation of the effectiveness of economical, financial, institutional, and regulatory measures for improving the rational use of energy in end-use sectors. This report presents the results of additional model development activities, partly based on the first experiences in a previous project. Energy efficiency indicators have been added as an extra tool for output analysis in REDUCE. The methodology is described and some examples are given. The model has been extended with a method for modelling the effects of technical development on production costs, by means of an experience curve. Finally, the report provides a 'users guide', by describing in more detail the input data specification as well as all menus and buttons. 19 refs

  11. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  12. Operations and Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

  13. Essential Indicators Identifying Chronic Inorganic Mercury Intoxication: Pooled Analysis across Multiple Cross-Sectional Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Doering

    Full Text Available The continuous exposure to inorganic mercury vapour in artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM areas leads to chronic health problems. It is therefore essential to have a quick, but reliable risk assessing tool to diagnose chronic inorganic mercury intoxication. This study re-evaluates the state-of-the-art toolkit to diagnose chronic inorganic mercury intoxication by analysing data from multiple pooled cross-sectional studies. The primary research question aims to reduce the currently used set of indicators without affecting essentially the capability to diagnose chronic inorganic mercury intoxication. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed on established biomonitoring exposure limits for mercury in blood, hair, urine and urine adjusted by creatinine, where the biomonitoring exposure limits are compared to thresholds most associated with chronic inorganic mercury intoxication in artisanal small-scale gold mining.Health data from miners and community members in Indonesia, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were obtained as part of the Global Mercury Project and pooled into one dataset together with their biomarkers mercury in urine, blood and hair. The individual prognostic impact of the indicators on the diagnosis of mercury intoxication is quantified using logistic regression models. The selection is performed by a stepwise forward/backward selection. Different models are compared based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC and Cohen`s kappa is used to evaluate the level of agreement between the diagnosis of mercury intoxication based on the currently used set of indicators and the result based on our reduced set of indicators. The sensitivity analysis of biomarker exposure limits of mercury is based on a sequence of chi square tests.The variable selection in logistic regression reduced the number of medical indicators from thirteen to ten in addition to the biomarkers. The estimated level of agreement using ten of thirteen medical indicators

  14. Relative Release-to-Birth Indicators for Investigating TRISO Fuel Fission Gas Release Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harp, Jason M.; Hawari, Ayman I.

    2008-01-01

    TRISO microsphere fuel is the fundamental fuel unit for Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR). A single TRISO particle consists of an inner kernel of uranium dioxide or uranium oxycarbide surrounded by layers of pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide. If the silicon carbide layer fails, fission products, especially the noble fission gases Kr and Xe, will begin to escape the failed particle. The release of fission gas is usually quantified by measuring the ratio of the released activity (R) to the original birth activity (B), which is designated as the R/B ratio. In this work, relative Release-to-Birth indicators (I) are proposed as a technique for interpreting the results of TRISO irradiation experiments. By implementing a relative metric, it is possible to reduce the sensitivity of the indicators to instrumental uncertainties and variations in experimental conditions. As an example, relative R/B indicators are applied to the interpretation of representative data from the Advanced Gas Reactor-1 TRISO fuel experiment that is currently taking place at the Advanced Test Reactor of Idaho National Laboratory. It is shown that the comparison of measured to predicted relative R/B indicators (I) gives insight into the physics of release and helps validate release models. Different trends displayed by the indicators are related to the mechanisms of fission gas release such as diffusion and recoil. The current analysis shows evidence for separate diffusion coefficients for Kr and Xe and supports the need to account for recoil release. (authors)

  15. Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jacomina Heymans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. METHODOLOGY: In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST; primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  17. Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Market Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Frank A.

    1999-01-01

    The RLV Market Analysis model is at best a rough order approximation of actual market behavior. However, it does give a quick indication if the flights exists to enable an economically viable RLV, and the assumptions necessary for the vehicle to capture those flights. Additional analysis, market research, and updating with the latest information on payloads and launches would improve the model. Plans are to update the model as new information becomes available and new requirements are levied. This tool will continue to be a vital part of NASA's RLV business analysis capability for the foreseeable future.

  18. On the usage of geomagnetic indices for data selection in internal field modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kauristie, K.; Morschhauser, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2017-01-01

    are primarily used in data selection criteria for weak magnetic activity.The publicly available extensive data bases of index values are used to derive joint conditional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for different pairs of indices in order to investigate their mutual consistency in describing quiet......) as derived from solar wind observations. We use in our PDF analysis the PC-index as a proxy for MEF and estimate the magnetic activity level at auroral latitudes with the AL-index. With these boundary conditions we conclude that the quiet time conditions that are typically used in main field modelling (PC...... electrojet activity only in average conditions and thus their performance is not optimal during weak activity, we note that careful data selection with advanced AE-variants may appear to be the most practical way to lower the elevated RMS-values which still exist in the residuals between modelled...

  19. Analysis of the Evolution of Financial Indicators for the Period 2004-2014 Transgaz SA

    OpenAIRE

    Andreea-Gabriela Baltac

    2015-01-01

    This article highlights the financial analysis of the evolution of a company through the key indicators involved. For this we watched a firm financial evolution of Romania and its main financial over 11 years. The study investigated virtually throughout the entity was based on an analysis of the financial indicators in the period 2004-2014 in Transgaz S.A. The objectives of this analysis are to determine the main financial indicators that lead to obtaining high economic performance. I used th...

  20. Effectiveness of technical analysis indicators over stock return: A Panel Data Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kutluk Kaðan SÜMER

    2015-01-01

    Technical analysis aims on visually identifying geometrical patterns and indicators in price charts in order to anticipate price “trends”. This paper investigates the relations between return and technical analysis indicators of Turkish commercial banking sector in BIST-BANKING index for the period 1-1-2000- 31-12-2013. Technical analysis indicators are generated by taking into account the daily stock prices. The general steps go through the identification of the relations for the securities ...

  1. Evaluation of Precipitation Indices for Global Crop Modeling and Definition of Drought Response Function to Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change initiates abnormal meteorological disasters. Drought causes climate instability, thus producing poor harvests because of low rates of photosynthesis and sterile pollination. This research evaluates drought indices regarding precipitation and includes this data in global geophysical crop models that concern with evaporation, stomata opening, advection-effects from sea surface temperature anomalies, photosynthesis, carbon partitioning, crop yields, and crop production. Standard precipitation index (SPI) is a useful tool because of related variable not used in the stomata model. However, SPI is not an adequate tool for drought in irrigated fields. Contrary to expectations, the global comparisons of spatial characteristics between stomata opening/evapotranspiration and SPI for monitoring continental crop extremes produced serious defects and obvious differences between evapotranspiration and the small stomata-opening phenomena. The reason for this is that SPI does not include surface air temperature in its analysis. The Penman equation (Epen) describes potential evaporation better than SPI for recent hot droughts caused by climate change. However, the distribution of precipitation is a necessary condition for crop monitoring because it affirms the trend of the dry results computed by crop models. Consequently, the author uses global precipitation data observed by microwave passive sensors on TRMM and GCOM-W satellites. This remote sensing data conveniently supplies spatial distributions of global and seasonal precipitation. The author has designed a model to measure the effects of drought on crop yield and the degree of stomata closure related to the photosynthesis rate. To determine yield effects, the drought injury function is defined by integrating stomata closure during the two seasons from flowering to pollination. The stomata, defined by ratio between Epen and Eac, reflect the effects of drought and irrigation. Stomata-closure model includes the

  2. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liesje Coertjens

    Full Text Available The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  3. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coertjens, Liesje; Donche, Vincent; De Maeyer, Sven; Vanthournout, Gert; Van Petegem, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  4. The impact of removing financial incentives from clinical quality indicators: longitudinal analysis of four Kaiser Permanente indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, Helen; Schmittdiel, Julie; Selby, Joe; Fireman, Bruce; Campbell, Stephen; Lee, Janelle; Whippy, Alan; Madvig, Philip

    2010-05-11

    To evaluate the effect of financial incentives on four clinical quality indicators common to pay for performance plans in the United Kingdom and at Kaiser Permanente in California. Longitudinal analysis. 35 medical facilities of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 1997-2007. 2 523 659 adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Main outcomes measures Yearly assessment of patient level glycaemic control (HbA(1c) financial incentives were attached to screening for diabetic retinopathy (1999-2003), the rate rose from 84.9% to 88.1%. This was followed by four years without incentives when the rate fell year on year to 80.5%. During the two initial years when financial incentives were attached to cervical cancer screening (1999-2000), the screening rate rose slightly, from 77.4% to 78.0%. During the next five years when financial incentives were removed, screening rates fell year on year to 74.3%. Incentives were then reattached for two years (2006-7) and screening rates began to increase. Across the 35 facilities, the removal of incentives was associated with a decrease in performance of about 3% per year on average for screening for diabetic retinopathy and about 1.6% per year for cervical cancer screening. Policy makers and clinicians should be aware that removing facility directed financial incentives from clinical indicators may mean that performance levels decline.

  5. Analysis of Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavik Stefan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The term business model has been used in practice for few years, but companies create, define and innovate their models subconsciously from the start of business. Our paper is aimed to clear the theory about business model, hence definition and all the components that form each business. In the second part, we create an analytical tool and analyze the real business models in Slovakia and define the characteristics of each part of business model, i.e., customers, distribution, value, resources, activities, cost and revenue. In the last part of our paper, we discuss the most used characteristics, extremes, discrepancies and the most important facts which were detected in our research.

  6. Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong; Chai, Tianyou

    2017-09-01

    Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improve modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  7. Analyzing lichen indicator data in the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Will-Wolf

    2010-01-01

    Lichens are one of several forest health indicators sampled every year for a subset of plots on the permanent grid established by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. This report reviews analysis procedures for standard FIA lichen indicator data. Analyses of lichen data contribute to state, regional, and...

  8. Advanced Model of Squirrel Cage Induction Machine for Broken Rotor Bars Fault Using Multi Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilias Ouachtouk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Squirrel cage induction machine are the most commonly used electrical drives, but like any other machine, they are vulnerable to faults. Among the widespread failures of the induction machine there are rotor faults. This paper focuses on the detection of broken rotor bars fault using multi-indicator. However, diagnostics of asynchronous machine rotor faults can be accomplished by analysing the anomalies of machine local variable such as torque, magnetic flux, stator current and neutral voltage signature analysis. The aim of this research is to summarize the existing models and to develop new models of squirrel cage induction motors with consideration of the neutral voltage and to study the effect of broken rotor bars on the different electrical quantities such as the park currents, torque, stator currents and neutral voltage. The performance of the model was assessed by comparing the simulation and experimental results. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the model, and allow detection and diagnosis of these defects.

  9. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators: a prospective study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

    2003-01-01

    This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators.......This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators....

  10. Developing of Indicators of an E-Learning Benchmarking Model for Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sae-Khow, Jirasak

    2014-01-01

    This study was the development of e-learning indicators used as an e-learning benchmarking model for higher education institutes. Specifically, it aimed to: 1) synthesize the e-learning indicators; 2) examine content validity by specialists; and 3) explore appropriateness of the e-learning indicators. Review of related literature included…

  11. Several Indicators of Critical Transitions for Complex Diseases Based on Stochastic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Gang; Li, Yuanyuan; Zou, Xiufen

    2017-01-01

    Many complex diseases (chronic disease onset, development and differentiation, self-assembly, etc.) are reminiscent of phase transitions in a dynamical system: quantitative changes accumulate largely unnoticed until a critical threshold is reached, which causes abrupt qualitative changes of the system. Understanding such nonlinear behaviors is critical to dissect the multiple genetic/environmental factors that together shape the genetic and physiological landscape underlying basic biological functions and to identify the key driving molecules. Based on stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, we theoretically derive three statistical indicators, that is, coefficient of variation (CV), transformed Pearson's correlation coefficient (TPC), and transformed probability distribution (TPD), to identify critical transitions and detect the early-warning signals of the phase transition in complex diseases. To verify the effectiveness of these early-warning indexes, we use high-throughput data for three complex diseases, including influenza caused by either H3N2 or H1N1 and acute lung injury, to extract the dynamical network biomarkers (DNBs) responsible for catastrophic transition into the disease state from predisease state. The numerical results indicate that the derived indicators provide a data-based quantitative analysis for early-warning signals for critical transitions in complex diseases or other dynamical systems.

  12. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  13. Use of Quality Models and Indicators for Evaluating Test Quality in an ESP Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IEVA RUDZINSKA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Qualitative methods of assessment play a decisive role in education in general and in language learning in particular. The necessity to perform a qualitative assessment comes from both increased student competition in higher education institutions (HEIs, and hence higher demands for fair assessment, and a growing public awareness on higher education issues, and therefore the need to account for a wider circle of stakeholders, including society as a whole. The aim of the present paper is to study the regulations and laws pertaining to the issue of assessment in Latvian HEIs, as well as to carry out literature sources analysis about assessment in language testing, seeking to select criteria characterizing the quality of English for Specific Purposes (ESP tests and to apply the model of evaluating the quality of a language test on an example of a test in sport English, developed in a Latvian higher education institution. An analysis of the regulations and laws about assessment in higher education and literature sources about tests in language courses has enabled the development of a test quality model, consisting of seven intrinsic quality criteria: clarity, adequacy, deep approach, attractiveness, originality/similarity, orientation towards student learning result/process, test scoring objectivity/subjectivity. Quality criteria comprise eleven indicators. The reliability of the given model is evaluated by means of the whole model, its criteria and indicator Cronbach’s alphas and point-biserial (item-total correlations or discrimination indexes DI. The test was taken by 63 participants, all of them 2nd year full time students attending a Latvian higher education institution. A statistical data analysis was performed with SPSS 17.0. The results show that, although test adequacy and clarity is sufficiently high, attractiveness and deep approach should be improved. Also the reliability of one version of the test is higher than that of the other one

  14. Environmental indicator principium with case references to agricultural soil, water, and air qualities and model-derived indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental indicators are powerful tools for tracking environmental changes, measuring environmental performance, and informing policy makers. With the ubiquitous nature of environmental assets and within the broad themes of environmental disciplines, many diverse environmental indicators, inclu...

  15. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  16. Benchmark risk analysis models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ale BJM; Golbach GAM; Goos D; Ham K; Janssen LAM; Shield SR; LSO

    2002-01-01

    A so-called benchmark exercise was initiated in which the results of five sets of tools available in the Netherlands would be compared. In the benchmark exercise a quantified risk analysis was performed on a -hypothetical- non-existing hazardous establishment located on a randomly chosen location in

  17. The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

    2016-06-01

    This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

  18. A decision support model for identification and prioritization of key performance indicators in the logistics industry

    OpenAIRE

    Kucukaltan, Berk; Irani, Zahir; Aktas, Emel

    2016-01-01

    Performance measurement of logistics companies is based upon various performance indicators. Yet, in the logistics industry, there are several vaguenesses, such as deciding on key indicators and determining interrelationships between performance indicators. In order to resolve these vaguenesses, this paper first presents the stakeholder-informed Balanced Scorecard (BSC) model, by incorporating financial (e.g. cost) and non-financial (e.g. social media) performance indicators, with a comprehen...

  19. PET kinetic analysis. Compartmental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watabe, Hiroshi; Ikoma, Yoko; Shidahara, Miho; Kimura, Yuichi; Naganawa, Mika

    2006-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) enables not only visualization of the distribution of radiotracer, but also has ability to quantify several biomedical functions. Compartmental model is a basic idea to analyze dynamic PET data. This review describes the principle of the compartmental model and categorizes the techniques and approaches for the compartmental model according to various aspects: model design, experimental design, invasiveness, and mathematical solution. We also discussed advanced applications of the compartmental analysis with PET. (author)

  20. Prioritizing public- private partnership models for public hospitals of iran based on performance indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamzadeh Nikjoo, Raana; Jabbari Beyrami, Hossein; Jannati, Ali; Asghari Jaafarabadi, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to scrutinize Public- Private Partnership (PPP) models in public hospitals of different countries based on performance indicators in order to se-lect appropriated models for Iran hospitals. In this mixed (quantitative-qualitative) study, systematic review and expert panel has been done to identify varied models of PPP as well as performance indicators. In the second step we prioritized performance indicator and PPP models based on selected performance indicators by Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP) technique. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 and Expert Choice11 software's. In quality - effectiveness area, indicators like the rate of hospital infections (100%), hospital accidents prevalence rate (73%), pure rate of hospital mortality (63%), patient satisfaction percentage (53%), in accessibility equity area indicators such as average inpatient waiting time (100%) and average outpatient waiting time (74%), and in financial - efficiency area, indicators including average length of stay (100%), bed occupation ratio (99%), specific income to total cost ratio (97%) have been chosen to be the most key performance indicators. In the pri¬oritization of the PPP models clinical outsourcing, management, privatization, BOO (build, own, operate) and non-clinical outsourcing models, achieved high priority for various performance in¬dicator areas. This study had been provided the most common PPP options in the field of public hospitals and had gathered suitable evidences from experts for choosing appropriate PPP option for public hospitals. Effect of private sector presence in public hospital performance, based on which PPP options undertaken, will be different.

  1. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  2. Multivariate Analysis of Profitability Indicators for Selected Companies of Croatian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Perisa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the profitability indicators are analysed for the first hundred companies of the Croatian market, which are classified according to the net profit. The profitability indicators included in the analysis are the following: EBIT margin, EBITDA margin, net profit margin, return on assets (ROA, return on invested capital (ROI and return on capital employed (ROCE. By implementing the factor analysis, six chosen profitability indicators have been reduced to two factors, thus solving the multicollinearity problem, which is one of the prerequisites for the cluster analysis. For two extracted factors, the factor scores are calculated and used in the following cluster analysis. By implementing the cluster analysis, selected companies are grouped into clusters according to their similarity in accomplished results that are measured by profitability indicators. The hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analyses are conducted and resulted into two clusters where ten companies were in the first cluster, while the other ninety were in the second cluster

  3. Interpretive Structural Model of Key Performance Indicators for Sustainable Maintenance Evaluatian in Rubber Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrina, E.; Yulianto, A.

    2018-03-01

    Sustainable maintenance is a new challenge for manufacturing companies to realize sustainable development. In this paper, an interpretive structural model is developed to evaluate sustainable maintenance in the rubber industry. The initial key performance indicators (KPIs) is identified and derived from literature and then validated by academic and industry experts. As a result, three factors of economic, social, and environmental dividing into a total of thirteen indicators are proposed as the KPIs for sustainable maintenance evaluation in rubber industry. Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) methodology is applied to develop a network structure model of the KPIs consisting of three levels. The results show the economic factor is regarded as the basic factor, the social factor as the intermediate factor, while the environmental factor indicated to be the leading factor. Two indicators of social factor i.e. labor relationship, and training and education have both high driver and dependence power, thus categorized as the unstable indicators which need further attention. All the indicators of environmental factor and one indicator of social factor are indicated as the most influencing indicator. The interpretive structural model hoped can aid the rubber companies in evaluating sustainable maintenance performance.

  4. Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Zayed, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...

  5. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  6. A critical cluster analysis of 44 indicators of author-level performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    -four indicators of individual researcher performance were computed using the data. The clustering solution was supported by continued reference to the researcher’s curriculum vitae, an effect analysis and a risk analysis. Disciplinary appropriate indicators were identified and used to divide the researchers...... into four groups; low, middle, high and extremely high performers. Seniority-specific indicators were not identified. The practical importance of the recommended disciplinary appropriate indicators is concerning. Our study revealed several critical concerns that should be investigated in the application....... It is important to do studies that investigate the usefulness of statistical evaluation methodologies to help us as a community learn more about the appropriateness of particular bibliometric indicators in the analysis of different researcher profiles....

  7. Bioclimatic indices based on the menex model example on Banja Luka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pecelj Milica

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It has long been known that weather and climate have influence on human health and well-being. The human organism is in constant interaction with the environmental conditions. To access the atmospheric impact on humans, different methods in human bioclimatology are created. Most of them are based on human heat balance. In this paper it has been tried to present several bioclimatic indices based on the human heat balance according to the bioclimatic model menex (man-environment exchange. The aim of this paper is to present bioclimatic conditions in Banja Luka vicinage (Bosnia and Herzegovina and to explore climate-recreation relationship. In the near vicinity of Banja Luka there are three spa centers that are favorable for recreation. For this analysis average available daily weather data for two extreme months (January and July, 1990 were used as well as the average monthly weather values for the period 1961-1990. The data were taken from Banja Luka weather station. As a result, several thermophisiological bioclimatic indices have been obtained. These are heat load in man, physiological strain, subjective temperature, subjective physiological temperature.

  8. The effects of digital elevation model resolution on the calculation and predictions of topographic wetness indices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drover, Damion, Ryan

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest exports in the Southeast U.S. is forest products. Interest in biofuels using forest biomass has increased recently, leading to more research into better forest management BMPs. The USDA Forest Service, along with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Georgia and Oregon State University are researching the impacts of intensive forest management for biofuels on water quality and quantity at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. Surface runoff of saturated areas, transporting excess nutrients and contaminants, is a potential water quality issue under investigation. Detailed maps of variable source areas and soil characteristics would therefore be helpful prior to treatment. The availability of remotely sensed and computed digital elevation models (DEMs) and spatial analysis tools make it easy to calculate terrain attributes. These terrain attributes can be used in models to predict saturated areas or other attributes in the landscape. With laser altimetry, an area can be flown to produce very high resolution data, and the resulting data can be resampled into any resolution of DEM desired. Additionally, there exist many maps that are in various resolutions of DEM, such as those acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey. Problems arise when using maps derived from different resolution DEMs. For example, saturated areas can be under or overestimated depending on the resolution used. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of DEM resolution on the calculation of topographic wetness indices used to predict variable source areas of saturation, and to find the best resolutions to produce prediction maps of soil attributes like nitrogen, carbon, bulk density and soil texture for low-relief, humid-temperate forested hillslopes. Topographic wetness indices were calculated based on the derived terrain attributes, slope and specific catchment area, from five different DEM resolutions. The DEMs were resampled from LiDAR, which is a

  9. Evaluating the impact of bike network indicators on cyclist safety using macro-level collision prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

    2016-12-01

    Many cities worldwide are recognizing the important role that cycling plays in creating green and livable communities. However, vulnerable road users such as cyclists are usually subjected to an elevated level of injury risk which discourages many road users to cycle. This paper studies cyclist-vehicle collisions at 134 traffic analysis zones in the city of Vancouver to assess the impact of bike network structure on cyclist safety. Several network indicators were developed using Graph theory and their effect on cyclist safety was investigated. The indicators included measures of connectivity, directness, and topography of the bike network. The study developed several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models that explicitly incorporated bike network indicators as explanatory variables. As well, the models incorporated the actual cyclist exposure (bike kilometers travelled) as opposed to relying on proxies such as population or bike network length. The macro-level collision prediction models were developed using generalized linear regression and full Bayesian techniques, with and without spatial effects. The models showed that cyclist collisions were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure. The exponents of the exposure variables were less than one which supports the "safety in numbers" hypothesis. Moreover, the models showed positive associations between cyclist collisions and the bike network connectivity and linearity indicators. In contrast, negative associations were found between cyclist collisions and the bike network continuity and topography indicators. The spatial effects were statistically significant in all of the developed models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Management of academic staff activity: modeling and prediction of rating system indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. S. Logunova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of constructing a system of rating indicators for stimulating the work of the academic staff in higher educational institution. Many areas of teacher activity (for example, educational, scientific, international, etc. laid the basis of selection the groups of indicators in the system. Social challenge in improving the quality of educational services determines the relevance of research in the field of modeling and prediction of indicators which characterize the work of high school teacher. To predict the dynamics of the structure of the rating indicators in the system, the authors introduced the concept of drift and variability of each group. Using informational hypercube for the structure of input data allowed authors to take into account the individual characteristics of each parameter included in a mathematical model to describe the rating indicators. To make the prediction of the structure and values of rating system indicators the authors introduced the concept of drift. Drift of indicators takes into account the introduction of new indicators, the removal of existing indicators, and movement of indicators between the groups. In the article, authors introduced a novel quantitative indicator of group variability. The value of this indicator determines the prediction strategy of the teacher work in higher school in the future period. To predict the total amount of stimulating, the complex technique offered and it includes four modules: modeling values within the existing range in the previous period; modeling new index value based on the assumptions introduced using a random number generator; exclusion a range of values of deleted indicators; modeling new values based on the study of the modern trend of indicators. The presence of flexible information structure in the form of a hypercube and complex mathematical model allowed authors to carry out numerical simulation for predicting the values of individual

  11. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  12. Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Performance Indicators for South Carolina's Technical Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad Nurul

    2010-01-01

    This study included an analysis of the trend of performance indicators for the technical college sector of higher education in South Carolina. In response to demands for accountability and transparency in higher education, the state of South Carolina developed sector specific performance indicators to measure various educational outcomes for each…

  13. The soil indicator of forest health in the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael C. Amacher; Charles H. Perry

    2010-01-01

    Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators (MPCI) were established to monitor forest conditions and trends to promote sustainable forest management. The Soil Indicator of forest health was developed and implemented within the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program to assess condition and trends in forest soil quality in U.S. forests regardless of ownership. The...

  14. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  15. Midterm Periodicity Analysis of the Mount Wilson Magnetic Indices Using the Synchrosqueezing Transform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng, Song; Wang, Feng; Deng, Hui; Yang, Yunfei [Yunnan Key Laboratory of Computer Technology Application/Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500 (China); Yu, Lan, E-mail: ynkmfs@escience.cn [Department of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Yunnan Land and Resources Vocational College, Kunming 650217 (China)

    2017-08-10

    A novel time–frequency technique, called the synchrosqueezing transform (SST), is used to investigate the midterm periodic variations of magnetic fields on the solar surface. The Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and the Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI), measured daily by the Mount Wilson Observatory between 1970 January 19 and 2012 January 22, are selected. Short-, mid, and longer-term periodicities are represented and decomposed by the SST with hardly any mode mixing. This demonstrates that the SST is a useful time–frequency analysis technique to characterize the periodic modes of helioseismic data. Apart from the fundamental modes of the annual periodicity, ∼27 day rotational cycle and ∼11 year solar cycle, the SST reveals several midterm periodicities in the two magnetic activity indices, specifically, ∼157 days (i.e., Rieger-type periodicity), and ∼1.3 and 1.7 years. The periodic modes, with 116.4 and 276.2 day periodicity in the MPSI, 108.5 and 251.6 day periodicity in the MWSI, and 157.7 day periodicity in the two indices, are in better accord with those significant periodicities derived from the Rossby waves theoretical model. This study suggests that the modes are caused by Rossby waves. For the 1.30 and 1.71 year periodicity of the MPSI, and the 1.33 and 1.67 year periodicity of the MWSI, our analysis infers that they are related to those periodicities with the same timescale in the interior of the Sun and in the high atmospheric layers.

  16. Modelling Dynamics of Main Indicators of Economic Activity of Households of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuk Mykola O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of the structure of the system of economic activity of households in Ukraine and dynamics of interconnections between the main indicators of its functioning. In order to study dynamics of main indicators of the system of economic activity of households, the article uses tools of econometric vector-autoregression modelling (VAR models. Based on the existing statistical data and a developed VAR model, the article studies individual and aggregate influence of lag values of indicators upon their current values, system reaction on main indicators impulses, analyses dynamics of change of explanation of dispersion of some indicators with others, and conducts two types of forecasts that reflect a general tendency of development of economic activity of households in Ukraine. High accuracy of forecasts obtained with the help of the proposed econometric model testifies to a possibility of its practical application for assessment of the state of main indicators of economic activity of households of Ukraine. The article applies for the first time the tools of VAR modelling for the study of economic activity of households in Ukraine, which expands possibilities of use of mathematical and statistical methods and models in this field of economy.

  17. Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolomeu, S.; Carvalho, M. J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Melo-Gonçalves, P.; Rocha, A.

    2016-08-01

    Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change. This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation. The annual trends estimated for the 1986-2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal. Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains

  18. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OBTAINED BY CORINELAND COVER METHODOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE USE OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slaviša Popović

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Serbian Environmental Protection Agency followed international and national indicators to do monitoring of forested landscape area for the period 1990-2000. Based on the data obtained by Corine Land Cover methodology following the indicators like Forest area, Forested landscape, Forest land and Forest and semi natural area, analysis was done. The forested landscape indicators analysis helped trends monitoring during the period from 1990 - 2000 year. Dynamic of forested area changes could have direct impact on the practical implementation of indicators. Indicator Forest area can be used in planning sustainable use of forests. Recorded growth rates value in 2000year, compared to the 1990th is 0.296%. Indicator Forested landscape increase for 0.186% till 2000 year, while the indicator Forested Land recorded value growth rate of 0.193%. Changes in rates of those indicators can be used in the future for “emission trading”. The smallest increment of rate change of 0.1% was recorded in indicator Forests and semi natural area. Information given by this indicator can be used for monitoring habitats in high mountain areas.

  19. A Higher Order Analysis of the Factor Structure of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, William L.; Mauzey, Edward; Johnson, Annabel M.; Murphy, Stanley D.; Zimmerman, Kurt J.

    2001-01-01

    Examines the higher order structure of Form G of the Myers Briggs Type Indicator. A third order component analysis of a sample (N=926) found two higher order components. This higher order analysis contributes to the research literature pertaining to the generalized structure of the personality measure. (Contains 44 references and 1 table.) (GCP)

  20. The long-term memory analysis of industrial indices of the Chinese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yong, L

    2008-01-01

    The main work of this paper is to apply the fractional market theory and time series analysis for analyzing various industrial indices of the Chinese stock market by rescaling range analysis. Hurst index and the long-term memory of price change in Chinese stock market are studied

  1. PERFORMANCE INDICATORS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE COLLEGES IN BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Átila de Melo Lira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A comparative analysis between the use of performance indicators to public and private organizations have always been required to examine the scenario related to both. This study seeks to analyze the use of Balanced Scorecard (BSC to identify and understand the main differences and similarities in public and private higher education institutions (HEIs in Brazil in relation to the use of other organizations performance indicators. A quantitative and exploratory approach was adopted using institutional documents analysis. Data was searched on the websites of Brazilian higher education public and private organizations in order to accomplish this analysis comparative. The results showed that even reviewing few public institutions the use of performance indicators appears to be more efficient than those applied to the private ones. Private universities should observe and improve their processes and performance indicators based on those used in Brazilian public universities. This initial research still opens a horizon so that other studies be developed within this thought stream.

  2. Teaching Quality Management Model for the Training of Innovation Ability and the Multilevel Decomposition Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xingjiang; Yao, Chen; Zheng, Jianmin

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the training of undergraduate students' innovation ability. On top of the theoretical framework of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD), we propose a teaching quality management model. Based on this model, we establish a multilevel decomposition indicator system, which integrates innovation ability characterized by four…

  3. Multidimensional Extension of Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes Models to Detect DIF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo; Bulut, Okan; Suh, Youngsuk

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have found multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models to be an effective tool in detecting uniform differential item functioning (DIF) for individual items and item bundles. A recently developed MIMIC-interaction model is capable of detecting both uniform and nonuniform DIF in the unidimensional item response theory…

  4. Applying Permutation Tests and Multivariate Modification Indices to Configurally Invariant Models That Need Respecification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terrence D. Jorgensen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The assumption of equivalence between measurement-model configurations across groups is typically investigated by evaluating overall fit of the same model simultaneously to multiple samples. However, the null hypothesis (H0 of configural invariance is distinct from the H0 of overall model fit. Permutation tests of configural invariance yield nominal Type I error rates even when a model does not fit perfectly (Jorgensen et al., 2017, in press. When the configural model requires modification, lack of evidence against configural invariance implies that researchers should reconsider their model's structure simultaneously across all groups. Application of multivariate modification indices is therefore proposed to help decide which parameter(s to free simultaneously in all groups, and I present Monte Carlo simulation results comparing their Type I error control to traditional 1-df modification indices. I use the Holzinger and Swineford (1939 data set to illustrate these methods.

  5. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  6. Asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices using index-based model of A-MFDFA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Minhyuk; Song, Jae Wook; Park, Ji Hwan; Chang, Woojin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • ‘Index-based A-MFDFA’ model is proposed to assess the asymmetric multi-fractality. • The asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices are investigated using ‘Index-based’ and ‘Return-based’ A-MFDFA. • The asymmetric feature is more significantly identified by ‘Index-based’ model than ‘return-based’ model. • Source of multi-fractality and time-varying features are analyzed. - Abstract: We detect the asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices based on the asymmetric multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MFDFA). Instead using the conventional return-based approach, we propose the index-based model of A-MFDFA where the trend based on the evolution of stock index rather than stock price return plays a role for evaluating the asymmetric scaling behaviors. The results show that the multi-fractal behaviors of the U.S. stock indices are asymmetric and the index-based model detects the asymmetric multi-fractality better than return-based model. We also discuss the source of multi-fractality and its asymmetry and observe that the multi-fractal asymmetry in the U.S. stock indices has a time-varying feature where the degree of multi-fractality and asymmetry increase during the financial crisis.

  7. Reliability analysis and operator modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

  8. Evolution of the Shanghai city region 1978-1998: an analysis of indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W; James, P

    2002-03-01

    Building on a description of the present situation in Shanghai, a series of ten regionally relevant indicators are identified and described. Using data from 1978-1998, relationships between these economic, social and environmental indicators are explored using correlation and regression analysis. The analysis indicated that, in Shanghai, conflict between economy and environment existed throughout the research period and the evolution of the city region system seems to lack regularity. The key elements affecting trends in the development of the Shanghai city region are Gross Domestic Product, Total Investment and Urban Living Area per Head. The city region system seemed more sustainable, indicated by an improvement in environmental quality and relative lower investment growth rate, when the annual change rate of Gross Domestic Product was less than 7-8%.

  9. Cross-country Analysis of ICT and Education Indicators: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, Ahmad R.

    2017-03-01

    This paper explores the relationship between world ICT and education indicators by using the latest available data from World Bank and UNESCO in range of 2011-2014 with the help of different exploratory methods such as principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA), cluster analysis, and ordinary least square (OLS) regression. After dealing with all missing values, 119 countries were included in the final dataset. The findings show that most ICT and education indicators are highly associated with income of the respective country and therefore confirm the existence of digital divide in ICT utilization and participation gap in education between rich and poor countries. It also indicates that digital divide and participation gap is highly associated with each other. Finally, the findings also confirm reverse causality in ICT and education; higher participation rate in education increases technology utilization, which in turn helps promote better outcomes of education.

  10. Geospatial Modeling of Watershed Quality as an Indicator for Environmental Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, R.

    2016-12-01

    The impact of urbanization of rural Tennessee counties on environmental quality and human health and wellbeing has not been well studied, especially in the context of water quality. Between 2015 and 2025, Williamson County, TN is projected to see the strongest rate of population growth in the region, expanding by 33.7 percent. Water quality directly affects the condition of soils, vegetation, and other life forms that depend on water for survival, and therefore is a valid indicator of environmental health. Current reliable data is available on less than half (47%) of waterways in Tennessee. GIS is applied to model the impact of urbanization on rural communities within the Mill Creek watershed in Williamson County, Tennessee. Water quality measurements are integrated with data identifying urbanization and other land development influences assessed over a previous decades in order to identify influences of environmental change impacts on the watershed. The study examines the threat of urbanization to soils, vegetation and other related natural resources as well as the distance of farm areas, pasture grazing, cattle access and manure runoff, construction and landscaping to collection systems leading into the watershed. Combining spatial analysis with water quality interpretation helped to identify and display potential causes and sources of Mill Creek Watershed pollution as well as vulnerable locations susceptible to risk of declining environmental health.

  11. Local indices for similarity analysis (LISA)-a 3D-QSAR formalism based on local molecular similarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Jitender; Malde, Alpeshkumar; Khedkar, Santosh; Iyer, Radhakrishnan; Coutinho, Evans

    2009-12-01

    A simple quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) approach termed local indices for similarity analysis (LISA) has been developed. In this technique, the global molecular similarity is broken up as local similarity at each grid point surrounding the molecules and is used as a QSAR descriptor. In this way, a view of the molecular sites permitting favorable and rational changes to enhance activity is obtained. The local similarity index, calculated on the basis of Petke's formula, segregates the regions into "equivalent", "favored similar", and "disfavored similar" (alternatively "favored dissimilar") potentials with respect to a reference molecule in the data set. The method has been tested on three large and diverse data sets-thrombin, glycogen phosphorylase b, and thermolysin inhibitors. The QSAR models derived using genetic algorithm incorporated partial least square analysis statistics are found to be comparable to the ones obtained by the standard three-dimensional (3D)-QSAR methods, such as comparative molecular field analysis and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis. The graphical interpretation of the LISA models is straightforward, and the outcome of the models corroborates well with literature data. The LISA models give insight into the binding mechanisms of the ligand with the enzyme and allow fine-tuning of the molecules at the local level to improve their activity.

  12. Analysis of the Diffusion Process by pH Indicator in Microfluidic Chips for Liposome Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bottaro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the development of nano- and micro-particles has attracted considerable interest from researchers and enterprises, because of the potential utility of such particles as drug delivery vehicles. Amongst the different techniques employed for the production of nanoparticles, microfluidic-based methods have proven to be the most effective for controlling particle size and dispersity, and for achieving high encapsulation efficiency of bioactive compounds. In this study, we specifically focus on the production of liposomes, spherical vesicles formed by a lipid bilayer encapsulating an aqueous core. The formation of liposomes in microfluidic devices is often governed by diffusive mass transfer of chemical species at the liquid interface between a solvent (i.e., alcohol and a non-solvent (i.e., water. In this work, we developed a new approach for the analysis of mixing processes within microfluidic devices. The method relies on the use of a pH indicator, and we demonstrate its utility by characterizing the transfer of ethanol and water within two different microfluidic architectures. Our approach represents an effective route to experimentally characterize diffusion and advection processes governing the formation of vesicular/micellar systems in microfluidics, and can also be employed to validate the results of numerical modelling.

  13. Voxel-based analysis of diffusion tensor indices in the brain in patients with Parkinson's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Kaiyuan; Yu Chunshui; Zhang Yujin; Wu Xiaoli; Zhu Chaozhe; Chan Piu; Li Kuncheng

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the abnormal diffusion in cerebral white matter and its relationship with the olfactory dysfunction in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) through diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Materials and methods: Diffusion tensor imaging of the cerebrum was performed in 25 patients with Parkinson's disease and 25 control subjects matched for age and sex. Differences in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) between these two groups were studied by voxel-based analysis of the DTI data. Correlations between diffusion indices and the olfactory function in PD patients were evaluated using the multiple regression model after controlling for the duration of the disease, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Sale (UPDRS), and age. Results: The damaged white and gray matter showed decreased FA or increased MD, localized bilaterally in the cerebellar and orbitofrontal cortex. In addition, in PD patients there was a positive correlation between FA values in the white matter of the left cerebellum and the thresholds of olfactory identification (TOI) and a negative correlation between MD values in the white matter of right cerebellum and the TOI. Conclusion: In patients with PD, there was disruption in the cerebellar white matter which may play an important role in the olfactory dysfunction in patients with Parkinson's disease.

  14. Model based on diffuse logic for the construction of indicators of urban vulnerability in natural phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia L, Carlos Eduardo; Hurtado G, Jorge Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Upon considering the vulnerability of a urban system in a holistic way and taking into account some natural, technological and social factors, a model based upon a system of fuzzy logic, allowing to estimate the vulnerability of any system under natural phenomena potentially catastrophic is proposed. The model incorporates quantitative and qualitative variables in a dynamic system, in which variations in one of them have a positive or negative impact over the rest. An urban system model and an indicator model to determine the vulnerability due to natural phenomena were designed

  15. [Correspondence analysis between traditional commercial specifications and quantitative quality indices of Notopterygii Rhizoma et Radix].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Shun-Yuan; Sun, Hong-Bing; Sun, Hui; Ma, Yu-Ying; Chen, Hong-Yu; Zhu, Wen-Tao; Zhou, Yi

    2016-03-01

    This paper aims to explore a comprehensive assessment method combined traditional Chinese medicinal material specifications with quantitative quality indicators. Seventy-six samples of Notopterygii Rhizoma et Radix were collected on market and at producing areas. Traditional commercial specifications were described and assigned, and 10 chemical components and volatile oils were determined for each sample. Cluster analysis, Fisher discriminant analysis and correspondence analysis were used to establish the relationship between the traditional qualitative commercial specifications and quantitative chemical indices for comprehensive evaluating quality of medicinal materials, and quantitative classification of commercial grade and quality grade. A herb quality index (HQI) including traditional commercial specifications and chemical components for quantitative grade classification were established, and corresponding discriminant function were figured out for precise determination of quality grade and sub-grade of Notopterygii Rhizoma et Radix. The result showed that notopterol, isoimperatorin and volatile oil were the major components for determination of chemical quality, and their dividing values were specified for every grade and sub-grade of the commercial materials of Notopterygii Rhizoma et Radix. According to the result, essential relationship between traditional medicinal indicators, qualitative commercial specifications, and quantitative chemical composition indicators can be examined by K-mean cluster, Fisher discriminant analysis and correspondence analysis, which provide a new method for comprehensive quantitative evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine quality integrated traditional commodity specifications and quantitative modern chemical index. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  16. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  17. Evidence-based practice: a quality indicator analysis of peer-tutoring in adapted physical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalef, Laura; Reid, Greg; Macdonald, Cathy

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the research was to conduct a quality indicator analysis of studies investigating peer-tutoring for students with a disability in adapted physical education. An electronic search was conducted among English journals published from 1960 to November 2012. Databases included ERIC, PsycINFO, and SPORTDiscus. Fifteen research studies employing group-experimental (Gersten et al., 2005) or single-subject designs (Horner et al., 2005) met inclusion criteria. Each study was assessed for the presence and clarity of quality indicators. Group designs met an average of 62.5% essential and 69% desirable indicators. An average of 80% of indicators was present for single-subject designs. Results suggest claims of peer-tutoring being an evidence-based practice are premature. Recommendations for clarifying and applying the quality indicators are offered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Program Analysis as Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Mads Chr.

    and abstract interpretation. Model checking views the program as a finite automaton and tries to prove logical properties over the automaton model, or present a counter-example if not possible — with a focus on precision. Abstract interpretation translates the program semantics into abstract semantics...... are considered, among others numerical analysis of c programs, and worst-case execution time analysis of ARM programs. It is shown how lattice automata allow automatic and manual tuning of the precision and efficiency of the verification procedure. In the case of worst-case execution time analysis a sound......Software programs are proliferating throughout modern life, to a point where even the simplest appliances such as lightbulbs contain software, in addition to the software embedded in cars and airplanes. The correct functioning of these programs is therefore of the utmost importance, for the quality...

  19. Dominant Indicators of Bank Crises: Comparative Analysis for States with Different Levels of Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozlov Vladislav I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to identification of common and distinctive regularities of development of banking systems with different levels of development of economy through study of the most important macro-economic and financial indicators. The article uses instruments of the applied statistics. The study is based on comparison of mean values of indicators in two groups of countries (countries with a high level of income and countries with a medium level of income, each of which is divided into two sub-groups based on whether there was banking crisis in 2008 or not. In the result of the study the article shows that there are both common and distinctive features of development of banking systems of countries with different levels of economic development. Thus, a typical scenario, characteristic for countries with developed economy that had banking crisis in 2008, includes availability of a relatively large-scale crediting of the economy under conditions of relatively low rates of economic growth and close connections of the national banking systems with banking systems of other countries. Development of banking systems of developing countries during the pre-crisis period is characterised with the following specific features: relatively high rates of growth of scales of crediting of the economy and high rates of economic growth under conditions of use of significant volumes of resources, borrowed in financial markets, and close connection of the national banking systems with banking systems of other countries. The study allows a more efficient use of experience of states with developed economy, since the described results give a possibility to adjust experience of other states, taking into account characteristic features of banking systems of developing countries. Also the study identified states, experience of which should be studied. The conducted analysis of interrelations of indicators could be used for building models of assessment of

  20. Accelerated life models modeling and statistical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bagdonavicius, Vilijandas

    2001-01-01

    Failure Time DistributionsIntroductionParametric Classes of Failure Time DistributionsAccelerated Life ModelsIntroductionGeneralized Sedyakin's ModelAccelerated Failure Time ModelProportional Hazards ModelGeneralized Proportional Hazards ModelsGeneralized Additive and Additive-Multiplicative Hazards ModelsChanging Shape and Scale ModelsGeneralizationsModels Including Switch-Up and Cycling EffectsHeredity HypothesisSummaryAccelerated Degradation ModelsIntroductionDegradation ModelsModeling the Influence of Explanatory Varia

  1. Analysis of architect’s performance indicators in project delivery process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marisa, A.

    2018-03-01

    Architect as a professional in the construction industry should possess a good performance in project delivery process. As a design professional, architect has an important role to ensure that the process is well-conducted by delivering a high-quality product for the clients. Thus, analyzing architect’s performance indicators is crucial in the project delivery process. This study aims to analyze the relative importance of architect performance indicators in project delivery process among registered architects in North Sumatera, Indonesia. A total of five indicators that measure architect performance in project delivery process were identified and 110 completed questionnaires were obtained and used for data analysis. A relative importance index is used to rank the relative importance of architect performance indicators. Results indicate that focus on the clients is the most important indicator of architect performance in project delivery process. This study demonstrates project communication as one of crucial indicators perceived by the architects for measuring their performance, and fills a knowledge gap on the importance of identifying the most important indicator for measuring architect performance from their own perspectives which previous studies have overlooked to improve performance assessment in project delivery process.

  2. MEMBANGUN EARLY WARNING INDICATORS PERGERAKAN KURS DI INDONESIA: PENGEMBANGAN BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andra Devi Benazir

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis in 1997/1998 that was signed by depreciation rupiah almost destroyed the pillars of the economy. This exchange rate shock possibly will happen in the future like that happened in August 2007. At the same time, rupiah falled to the lowest level Rp. 9.410 per dollar (the exchange rate use the last month in August 2007. The exchange rate of its daily until above Rp 9.500 per dollar (Sadewa, 2007. Therefore, it was needed indicator of theearly detection with build leading indicators the movement of the exchange rate in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is building leading indicators the movement of the exchangerate in Indonesia. It could give the capacity forecasting of the Indonesian economy of the movement direction in a manner the aggregate with the Business Cycle Analysis method andIts development. Empirical results showed that is received by four leading indicators and four coincident indicators. The real export, the real import, foreign currency deposit, and forexbanks demand deposits in foreign currency became the moving indicator preceded the exchange rate. Whereas, there are four indicators to coincident was foreign assets, interbank call money rate 1 day, the German share index (DAX, and the USA share index (Nasdaq. This condition indicated that the exchange rate rupiah really was affected by the external factor.

  3. Statistical analysis of morphometric indicators and physical readiness variability of students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.A. Gainullin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To evaluate the interaction of morphometric characteristics with the reactions of the cardiorespiratory system and the indices of physical training during the process of physical exercise training at the university. Material: The students of the first course (n = 91, aged 17-18 took part in the survey. The students were divided into 6 groups. All students were engaged in physical training. All the studied indicators were conditionally divided into two groups. The first group of studies included indicators of physical fitness. The second group was formed by morphofunctional indices. Results: The indicators of the physical preparedness of students demonstrate a wide range and heterogeneity. This should be taken into account when staffing training groups. When using the technique of development of local regional muscular endurance, the values of orthostatic test and the Skibinski index show significant variability. Also high and significant correlation interactions are shown by indicators: manual dynamometry; strength endurance; the values of the Skibinski index. Also, in the orthotropic test, the same effect was observed: age, body length, heart rate. A similar analysis of morphofunctional indices shows significant correlation links: the Skibinski index and orthotropic tests; age and the Skibinski index; weight and body length. Conclusions: from the point of view of physical fitness, groups of sports training (the second group and hypertensive groups (group 5 proved to be the most stable. A group of volunteers turned out to be the most stable relative to the morphofunctional indicators.

  4. Analysis and Identification of Acid-Base Indicator Dyes by Thin-Layer Chromatography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) is a very simple and effective technique that is used by chemists by different purposes, including the monitoring of the progress of a reaction. TLC can also be easily used for the analysis and identification of various acid-base indicator dyes.

  5. A critical cluster analysis of 44 indicators of author-level performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    . Publication and citation data for 741 researchers across Astronomy, Environmental Science, Philosophy and Public Health was collected in Web of Science (WoS). Forty-four indicators of individual performance were computed using the data. A two-step cluster analysis using IBM SPSS version 22 was performed...

  6. On the Paleostress Analysis Using Kinematic Indicators Found on an Oriented Core

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nováková, Lucie; Brož, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2014), s. 76-83 ISSN 2331-9593 R&D Projects: GA MPO(CZ) FR-TI1/367 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : paleostress analysis * borehole core * kinematic indicators * bias sampling * recent stress Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure http://www.hrpub.org/download/20140105/UJG6-13901884.pdf

  7. Linkages between biodiversity loss and human health: a global indicator analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, M.M.T.E.; Martens, P.; Groot, de R.S.

    2004-01-01

    The association between health and biodiversity loss was explored by means of regression analysis on a global scale, with control for confounding by socio-economic developments. For this we selected indicators of human health (life expectancy, disability adjusted life expectancy, infant mortality

  8. Application of Data Envelopment Analysis on the Indicators Contributing to Learning and Teaching Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoneri, Bernard; Lin, Tyrone T.; Lee, Chia-Chi; Huang, Shio-Ling

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to explore the quantitative relative efficiency of 18 classes of freshmen students studying a course of English conversation in a university of Taiwan from the academic year 2004-2006. A diagram of teaching performance improvement mechanism is designed to identify key performance indicators for…

  9. Deriving Multidimensional Poverty Indicators: Methodological Issues and an Empirical Analysis for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coromaldi, Manuela; Zoli, Mariangela

    2012-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical studies have recently adopted a multidimensional concept of poverty. There is considerable debate about the most appropriate degree of multidimensionality to retain in the analysis. In this work we add to the received literature in two ways. First, we derive indicators of multiple deprivation by applying a particular…

  10. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Indicated Interventions to Increase School Attendance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Brandy R.; Tyson-McCrea, Katherine; Pigott, Therese; Kelly, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine the effects of intervention programs on school attendance behaviors of elementary and secondary school students to inform policy and practice. The specific questions guiding this study were: (1) Do indicated programs with a goal of increasing student attendance affect…

  11. Monitoring of Students' Interaction in Online Learning Settings by Structural Network Analysis and Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammenwerth, Elske; Hackl, Werner O

    2017-01-01

    Learning as a constructive process works best in interaction with other learners. Support of social interaction processes is a particular challenge within online learning settings due to the spatial and temporal distribution of participants. It should thus be carefully monitored. We present structural network analysis and related indicators to analyse and visualize interaction patterns of participants in online learning settings. We validate this approach in two online courses and show how the visualization helps to monitor interaction and to identify activity profiles of learners. Structural network analysis is a feasible approach for an analysis of the intensity and direction of interaction in online learning settings.

  12. New Indicated Mean Effective Pressure (IMEP) model for predicting crankshaft movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omran, Rabih; Younes, Rafic; Champoussin, Jean-Claude; Outbib, Rachid

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → IMEP is essential to estimate the indicated torque in internal combustion engine. → We proposed model which describes the IMEP-Low pressure and the IMEP-High pressure. → We studied the evolution of the IMEP with respect to the engine's variables. → We deduced the variables of influence that can be used to develop the models. → The IMEP model is compared to transient experimental New European Driving Cycle. - Abstract: Indicated Mean Effective Pressure models (IMEP) are essential to estimate the indicated torque in internal combustion engine; they also provide important information about the mechanical efficiency of the engine thermodynamic cycle which describes the conversion of the fuel combustion energy into mechanical work. In the past, many researches were made to improve the IMEP prediction and measurement techniques at different engine operating conditions. In this paper, we proposed a detailed IMEP model which separately describes the IMEP-Low pressure and the IMEP-High pressure of a modern diesel engine; the IMEP is the direct subtraction result between these two variables. We firstly studied the evolution of the IMEP HP and IMEP LP with respect to the engine's variables and then we deduced the variables of influence and the form of the equations that can be used to develop the models. Finally, the models' coefficients were determined based on experimental data collected on a steady state test bench and using the least square regression method. In addition, the IMEP HP model results were compared to transient experimental data collected on a chassis dynamometer test bench; the model results are in excellent agreement with the experimental data.

  13. Indicators of European public research in hydrogen and fuel cells - An input-output analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seymour, E. Hugo; Borges, Francisco C.; Fernandes, Rei [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa (Portugal). Mechanical Engineering Department, Research Group on Energy and Sustainable Development

    2007-10-15

    A prerequisite of any coordinated research activity is a comparison of the current status of research in the countries in question and a means to monitor the progress in particular sectors. Analysis of indicators of research in different countries allows comparison of the research undertaken. This paper compares input and output indicators of public research in hydrogen and fuel cells (H and FC) both within Europe and between Europe and the US, Japan and China. Overall the combined public H and FC research budget for the EU25 countries, associated states and accession countries was EUR276M in 2005, slightly higher than in the US, but lower than in Japan. An analysis of research outputs indicates that European competitive advantage is being lost to China and the US. Greater and more effective research coordination as well as more targeted allocation of research funds are proposed as potential solutions. (author)

  14. Odor composition analysis and odor indicator selection during sewage sludge composting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yan-li; Zheng, Guo-di; Gao, Ding; Chen, Tong-bin; Wu, Fang-kun; Niu, Ming-jie; Zou, Ke-hua

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT On the basis of total temperature increase, normal dehydration, and maturity, the odor compositions of surface and internal piles in a well-run sewage sludge compost plant were analyzed using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry with a liquid nitrogen cooling system and a portable odor detector. Approximately 80 types of substances were detected, including 2 volatile inorganic compounds, 4 sulfur organic compounds, 16 benzenes, 27 alkanes, 15 alkenes, and 19 halogenated compounds. Most pollutants were mainly produced in the mesophilic and pre-thermophilic periods. The sulfur volatile organic compounds contributed significantly to odor and should be controlled primarily. Treatment strategies should be based on the properties of sulfur organic compounds. Hydrogen sulfide, methyl mercaptan, dimethyl disulfide, dimethyl sulfide, ammonia, and carbon disulfide were selected as core indicators. Ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, carbon disulfide, dimethyl disulfide, methyl mercaptan, dimethylbenzene, phenylpropane, and isopentane were designated as concentration indicators. Benzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, dimethylbenzene, dichloromethane, toluene, chlorobenzene, trichloromethane, carbon tetrachloride, and ethylbenzene were selected as health indicators. According to the principle of odor pollution indicator selection, dimethyl disulfide was selected as an odor pollution indicator of sewage sludge composting. Monitoring dimethyl disulfide provides a highly scientific method for modeling and evaluating odor pollution from sewage sludge composting facilities. Implications: Composting is one of the most important methods for sewage sludge treatment and improving the low organic matter content of many agricultural soils. However, odors are inevitably produced during the composting process. Understanding the production and emission patterns of odors is important for odor control and treatment. Core indicators, concentration indicators, and health indicators provide an index

  15. On the Consistency of Gamma-Ray Burst Spectral Indices with the Synchrotron Shock Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preece, R. D.; Briggs, M. S.; Giblin, T. W.; Mallozzi, R. S.; Pendleton, G. N.; Paciesad, W. S.; Band, D. L.

    2002-01-01

    The current scenario for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) involves internal shocks for the prompt GRB emission phase and external shocks for the afterglow phase. Assuming optically thin synchrotron emission from isotropically distributed energetic shocked electrons, GRB spectra observed with a low-energy power-law spectral index greater than -2/3 (for positive photon number indices E(exp alpha) indicate a problem with this model. For spectra that do not violate this condition, additional tests of the shock model can be made by comparing the low- and high-energy spectral indices, on the basis of the model's assertion that synchrotron emission from a single power-law distribution of electrons is responsible for both the low-energy and the high-energy power-law portions of the spectra. We find in most cases that the inferred relationship between the two spectral indices of observed GRB spectra is inconsistent with the constraints from the simple optically thin synchrotron shock emission model. In this sense, the prompt burst phase is different from the afterglow phase, and this difference may be related to anisotropic distributions of particles or to their continual acceleration in shocks during the prompt phase.

  16. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  17. Extended model of raw data signals for space-time adaptive processing and moving target indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lidický, L.; Hoogeboom, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-channel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal model. Its purpose is to study nonstationary raw SAR signals in moving target indication (MTI) systems. This is opposed to the traditional approach in which only stationary (harmonic) signals are considered. The principal

  18. Use of tamper-indicating seals at model facility. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logsdon, R.B.

    1984-01-01

    Tamper-indicating seals, when applied to containers of nuclear material, serve a vital safeguards function. Because of the importance of the seal in safeguards, it is essential that their acquisition, storage, and distribution be controlled effectively. These functions are described for the model facility

  19. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.

    2011-01-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  20. Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

  1. Structural Modeling for the Comparison Indicators in Various Electricity Generating Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Tae Woon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    Comparison indicators of various power systems can be yielded by solving a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In reality, there are different grades of interdependence among the decision elements (e.g., decision goal, decision criteria, and decision alternatives). In our previous work, based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, an independence model was developed for the comparison indicators under the assumption that there is no interdependence among the decision elements. For handling different interdependence phenomena (e.g., independence, inner dependence, outer dependence, feedback effect, a combination thereof) among the decision elements, one of the simplest graph structures was investigated on the basis of an analytic network process (ANP) technique. In the present work, the main objective is to study an assessment model with a high grade of interactions among the decision elements. Comparison indicators (e.g., weighting factors, overall priority scores, and risk attitudes towards a nuclear power plant) for seven power generation systems are obtained.

  2. Joint analysis of time-to-event and multiple binary indicators of latent classes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus

    2004-01-01

    Multiple categorical variables are commonly used in medical and epidemiological research to measure specific aspects of human health and functioning. To analyze such data, models have been developed considering these categorical variables as imperfect indicators of an individual's "true" status o...

  3. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose...... of the results from tested women to the whole group in question, a 2.4% prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of the model was 80.6 (73.7-87.6) and 64.8 (63.5-66.1), respectively (95% CIs). CONCLUSION: Under ideal conditions, sensitivity of the model...

  4. Measuring the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health among migrants in urban China: a multiple indicators multiple causes model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Ming

    2017-01-01

    Since 1978, rural-urban migrants mainly contribute Chinese urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health of them. Their mental health was measured by 12-item general health questionnaire (GHQ-12). The study sample comprised 5925 migrants obtained from the 2009 rural-to-urban migrants survey (RUMiC). The relationships among the instruments were assessed by the correlation analysis. The one-factor (overall items), two-factor (positive vs. negative items), and model conducted by principal component analysis were tested in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). On the basis of three CFA models, the three multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models with age, gender, marriage, ethnicity, and employment were constructed to investigate the concurrent associations between socioeconomic factors and GHQ-12. Of the sample, only 1.94% were of ethnic origin and mean age was 31.63 (SD = ±10.43) years. The one-factor, two-factor, and three-factor structure (i.e. semi-positive/negative/independent usefulness) had good model fits in the CFA analysis and gave order (i.e. 2 factor>3 factor>1 factor), which suggests that the three models can be used to assess psychological symptoms of migrants in urban China. All MIMIC models had acceptable fit and gave order (i.e. one-dimensional model>two-dimensional model>three-dimensional model). There were weak associations of socioeconomic factors with mental health among migrants in urban China. Policy discussion suggested that improvement of socioeconomic status of rural-urban migrants and mental health systems in urban China should be highlighted and strengthened.

  5. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  6. A sparse QSRR model for predicting retention indices of essential oils based on robust screening approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Fakih, A M; Algamal, Z Y; Lee, M H; Aziz, M

    2017-08-01

    A robust screening approach and a sparse quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) model for predicting retention indices (RIs) of 169 constituents of essential oils is proposed. The proposed approach is represented in two steps. First, dimension reduction was performed using the proposed modified robust sure independence screening (MR-SIS) method. Second, prediction of RIs was made using the proposed robust sparse QSRR with smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty (RSQSRR). The RSQSRR model was internally and externally validated based on [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], Y-randomization test, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and the applicability domain. The validation results indicate that the model is robust and not due to chance correlation. The descriptor selection and prediction performance of the RSQSRR for training dataset outperform the other two used modelling methods. The RSQSRR shows the highest [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], and the lowest [Formula: see text]. For the test dataset, the RSQSRR shows a high external validation value ([Formula: see text]), and a low value of [Formula: see text] compared with the other methods, indicating its higher predictive ability. In conclusion, the results reveal that the proposed RSQSRR is an efficient approach for modelling high dimensional QSRRs and the method is useful for the estimation of RIs of essential oils that have not been experimentally tested.

  7. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  8. Characterization of climate indices in models and observations using Hurst Exponent and Reyni Entropy Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, D.; Bhatt, U. S.; Wackerbauer, R.; Sanchez, R.; Polyakov, I.

    2009-12-01

    Because models are intrinsically incomplete and evolving, multiple methods are needed to characterize how well models match observations and were their weaknesses lie. For the study of climate, global climate models (GCM) are the primary tool. Therefore, in order to improve our climate modeling confidence and our understanding of the models weakness we need to apply more and more measures of various types until one finds differences. Then we can decide if these differences have important impacts on ones results and what they mean in terms of the weaknesses and missing physics in the models. In this work, we investigate a suite of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) simulations of varied complexity, from fixed sea surface temperature simulations to fully coupled T85 simulations. Climate indices (e.g. NAO), constructed from the GCM simulations and observed data, are analyzed using Hurst Exponent (R/S) and Reyni Entropy methods to explore long-term and short-term dynamics (i.e. temporal evolution of the time series). These methods identify clear differences between the models and observations as well as between the models. One preliminary finding suggests that fixing midlatitude SSTs to observed values increases the differences between the model and observation dynamics at long time scales.

  9. Exploring optimal myoelectric feature indices for forearm control strategy using robust principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoga, Suguru; Murai, Akihiko; Tada, Mitsunori

    2017-07-01

    Forearm movements realize various functions needed in daily life. For reproduction of the motion sequences, active myoelectric devices have been developed. Usually, feature indices are extracted from observed signals in control strategy; however, the optimal combination of indices is still unclear. This paper introduces sparsity-inducing penalty term in principal component analysis (PCA) to explore optimal myoelectric feature indices. An electromyographic database including seven forearm movements from 30 subjects was used for performance comparison. Linear classifier with sparse features showed best performance (7.86±3.82% error rate) that was significantly better than linear classifier with all features because of recovering low rank matrix in original data. Furthermore, the sparse features had a large contribution of underlying data structure with less number of principal components than PCA. Root-mean-square, time-domain features, autoregressive coefficients, and Histogram purported to be important in projected feature space; therefore, the feature indices are important to myoelectric strategies.

  10. Mathematical modelling of transport of a non-diffusible indicator to estimate renal blood supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelfand, I.N.; Narkevich, V.Y.

    1985-01-01

    A new method is recommended to interpret the results in radionuclide studies of renal blood flow with the mathematical modelling of transport of a non-diffusible indicator in the blood vessels. The analytic proportions are ascertained between mean transit time of indicator, mean retention time (both at impulse influence and at occurence of any signal at the input) for different forms of transport function, and impulse-shaped retention function of the studied physiological system. By means of external measuring of radioactivity this allows to estimate the mean transit time of the indicator by the studied element of hemodynamics, an index, used in classically physiological studies. The recommended system of physiological indices describes the statistic and dynamic parameters of the vessel network in each kidney adequately. The use of this method showed its efficiency on principle in 7 healthy persons and in 4 patients with clinically manifest kidney diseases. (author)

  11. Spatial correlation structure of the ionosphere predicted by geomagnetic indices and application to global field modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ferrat, K.; Lesur, V.; Stolle, C.

    2017-12-01

    Ionospheric fields are modelled in terms of random structures taking into account a mean behaviour as well as random fluctuations which are described through two point correlation kernels. These kernels are estimated from long time series of numerical simulations from various models. These correlations are best expressed in SM system of coordinates. For the moment we limit ourselves to spatial correlations only in this coordinate system. We study the influence of various indices as possible predictor parameters for these correlations as well as seasonal effects. The various time series of ionospheric fields are stored in a HDF5 database which is accessible via a web interface. The obtained correlation structures serve as prior information to separate external and internal field components from observatory based measurements. We present a model that predicts the correlations as a function of time and some geomagnetic indices. First results of the inversion from observatory data are presented.

  12. Geometric simplification of analysis models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watterberg, P.A.

    1999-12-01

    Analysis programs have been having to deal with more and more complex objects as the capability to model fine detail increases. This can make them unacceptably slow. This project attempts to find heuristics for removing features from models in an automatic fashion in order to reduce polygon count. The approach is not one of theoretical completeness but rather one of trying to achieve useful results with scattered practical ideas. By removing a few simple things such as screw holes, slots, chambers, and fillets, large gains can be realized. Results varied but a reduction in the number of polygons by a factor of 10 is not unusual.

  13. Serial Analysis of Ten Precipitation-Based Indices by Land Use in Semiarid Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rodríguez-Moreno

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Open ecosystems in Mexico are under increasing pressure, due particularly to the expansion of cities and agricultural activities. These developments occur without integrating biodiversity concerns in land use planning and result in extensive fragmentation and transformation of the landscapes. The semiarid region of Mesa Central was characterized using ten precipitation-based indices. Using multivariate statistical and geostatistical spatial analysis techniques, the influence of those indices on five land use strata was explored. Land use analysis indicated that the maximum values of the five significant precipitation-based indices were found in Grasslands, Agricultural Use, and Shrubs; minimum values were characteristic of substrates Secondary Desert Vegetation and Other Use. Our results suggest that the greatest number of extreme precipitation events is likely to occur in open ecosystems and consequently will have a strong influence on landscaping and land use. The semivariogram analysis and geostatistical layers demand attention from research institutions, policy makers, researchers, and food producers to take the appropriate and coordinated actions to propose scenarios to deal with climate change. Perhaps this study can stimulate thought concerning research endeavours aimed at promoting initiatives for biodiversity conservation and planning programs for climate change mitigation.

  14. Diagnostic indicators of non-cardiovascular chest pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Non-cardiovascular chest pain (NCCP) has a high healthcare cost, but insufficient guidelines exist for its diagnostic investigation. The objective of the present work was to identify important diagnostic indicators and their accuracy for specific and non-specific conditions underlying NCCP. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. In May 2012, six databases were searched. Hand and bibliography searches were also conducted. Studies evaluating a diagnostic test against a reference test in patients with NCCP were included. Exclusion criteria were having diagnostic tests for acute cardiovascular disease. Diagnostic accuracy is given in likelihood ratios (LR): very good (LR+ >10, LR- diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity was performed by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Results Out of 6,316 records, 260 were reviewed in full text, and 28 were included: 20 investigating gastroesophageal reflux disorders (GERD), 3 musculoskeletal chest pain, and 5 psychiatric conditions. Study quality was good in 15 studies and moderate in 13. GERD diagnosis was more likely with typical GERD symptoms (LR + 2.70 and 2.75, LR- 0.42 and 0.78) than atypical GERD symptoms (LR + 0.49, LR- 2.71). GERD was also more likely with a positive response to a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) test (LR + 5.48, 7.13, and 8.56; LR- 0.24, 0.25, and 0.28); the posterior mean sensitivity and specificity of six studies were 0.89 (95% credible interval, 0.28 to 1) and 0.88 (95% credible interval, 0.26 to 1), respectively. Panic and anxiety screening scores can identify individuals requiring further testing for anxiety or panic disorders. Clinical findings in musculoskeletal pain either had a fair to moderate LR + and a poor LR- or vice versa. Conclusions In patients with NCCP, thorough clinical evaluation of the patient’s history, symptoms, and clinical findings can indicate the most appropriate diagnostic tests. Treatment response to high-dose PPI

  15. Labor satisfaction as an indicator of public administration efficiency (sociological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina Valentinovna Leonidova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Labor satisfaction is an indicator of social wellbeing of the working population. The study of subjective perceptions of labor is an important indicator of public administration efficiency. The article contains the analysis of the population’s satisfaction with labor, particularly, with one of its structural components – labor conditions. It reveals the high correlation of these indicators with the satisfaction with everyday life and labor productivity. It determines the degree of employees’ satisfaction with working conditions in such areas as health and psychological atmosphere at the workplace, equipment capability and security. The study discloses employees’ estimates in socio-demographic and territorialdimensional aspects. The research demonstrates the interrelation between satisfaction with working environment and implementation of labor potential. The analysis indicates the importance of regular sociological research into the issues of satisfaction with various aspects of labor activity. The article indicates that for the country’s development it is necessary to take into account the labor satisfaction factor (in the narrow sense – working conditions while developing strategies and approaches for social-economic policy and defining the standards of social responsibility, primarily, of the state and employers

  16. Vibration Spectrum Analysis for Indicating Damage on Turbine and Steam Generator Amurang Unit 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beny Cahyono

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Maintenance on machines is a mandatory asset management activity to maintain asset reliability in order to reduce losses due to failure. 89% of defects have random failure mode, the proper maintenance method is predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance object in this research is Steam Generator Amurang Unit 1, which is predictive maintenance is done through condition monitoring in the form of vibration analysis. The conducting vibration analysis on Amurang Unit 1 Steam Generator is because vibration analysis is very effective on rotating objects. Vibration analysis is predicting the damage based on the vibration spectrum, where the vibration spectrum is the result of separating time-based vibrations and simplifying them into vibrations based on their frequency domain. The transformation of time-domain-wave into frequency-domain-wave is using the application of FFT, namely AMS Machinery. The measurement of vibration value is done on turbine bearings and steam generator of Unit 1 Amurang using Turbine Supervisory Instrument and CSI 2600 instrument. The result of this research indicates that vibration spectrum from Unit 1 Amurang Power Plant indicating that there is rotating looseness, even though the vibration value does not require the Unit 1 Amurang Power Plant to stop operating (shut down. This rotating looseness, at some point, can produce some indications that similar with the unbalance. In order to avoid more severe vibrations, it is necessary to do inspection on the bearings in the Amurang Unit 1 Power Plant.

  17. Predicting trace organic compound attenuation by ozone oxidation: Development of indicator and surrogate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Minkyu; Anumol, Tarun; Daniels, Kevin D; Wu, Shimin; Ziska, Austin D; Snyder, Shane A

    2017-08-01

    Ozone oxidation has been demonstrated to be an effective treatment process for the attenuation of trace organic compounds (TOrCs); however, predicting TOrC attenuation by ozone processes is challenging in wastewaters. Since ozone is rapidly consumed, determining the exposure times of ozone and hydroxyl radical proves to be difficult. As direct potable reuse schemes continue to gain traction, there is an increasing need for the development of real-time monitoring strategies for TOrC abatement in ozone oxidation processes. Hence, this study is primarily aimed at developing indicator and surrogate models for the prediction of TOrC attenuation by ozone oxidation. To this end, the second-order kinetic equations with a second-phase R ct value (ratio of hydroxyl radical exposure to molecular ozone exposure) were used to calculate comparative kinetics of TOrC attenuation and the reduction of indicator and spectroscopic surrogate parameters, including UV absorbance at 254 nm (UVA 254 ) and total fluorescence (TF). The developed indicator model using meprobamate as an indicator compound and the surrogate models with UVA 254 and TF exhibited good predictive power for the attenuation of 13 kinetically distinct TOrCs in five filtered and unfiltered wastewater effluents (R 2 values > 0.8). This study is intended to help provide a guideline for the implementation of indicator/surrogate models for real-time monitoring of TOrC abatement with ozone processes and integrate them into a regulatory framework in water reuse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  19. Analysis of Malaysian Nuclear Agency Key Performance Indicator (KPI) 2005-2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aisya Raihan Abdul Kadir; Hazmimi Kasim; Azlinda Aziz; Noriah Jamal

    2014-01-01

    Malaysia Nuclear Agency (Nuclear Malaysia) was established on 19 September 1972. Since its inception, Nuclear Malaysia has been entrusted with the responsibility to introduce and promote nuclear science and technology for national development. After more than 40 years of operation, Nuclear Malaysia remains significant as an excellent organization of science, technology and innovation. An analysis of the key performance indicator (KPI) achievements in 2005-2013 as indicator to the role of Nuclear Malaysia as a national research institution. It was established to promote, develop and encourage the application of nuclear technology. (author)

  20. APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION SPECTRA TO IDENTIFY WINES WITH PROTECTED GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATION (IGP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Khodasevich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The simulation is carried out of physical and chemical characteristics of the unblended varietal young Moldovan wine harvested in 2014 by the projection to latent structures of the transmission spectra in the range of 220–2500 nm. The achieved accuracy of the regression determining the parameters is appropriate for practical application purposes (from 5 % for alcohol strength to 30 % for tartaric acid content in red wines. The possibility is shown of solving the problem of verification of the protected geographical indication of wines (IGP – Indication Géographique Protégée by the multivariate analysis of broadband transmission spectra. 

  1. Environmental indicators for sustainability: a strategic analysis for the sugarcane ethanol context in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Priscila; Malheiros, Tadeu; Fernandes, Valdir; Sobral, Maria do Carmo

    2016-01-01

    Sugarcane ethanol is considered a renewable energy source and has emerged as a potential alternative to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, particularly in Brazil. However, there are some questions about how sustainable this energy source is, given the impacts from its production and use on a larger scale. To understand and achieve sustainability, it is essential to build tools that can assess an integrated conception and help decision-makers to establish public policies for a sustainable development. The indicators appear as such tools by capturing the complexity without reducing the significance of each system's component. The environmental indicators such as water quality indicator represent the level of water pollution, considering several parameters. The importance of the development, selection and validation of environmental indicators through a structured and cohesive process becomes essential. In the State of São Paulo, in Brazil, the environmental indicators, as well as policies based on them, are defined by the Environmental Secretariat (SMA/SP). This article presents an environmental indicator's evaluation method and reports based on the discussions about sustainability for the ethanol sugarcane context in the State of São Paulo. The method consists of interviews and an expert's workshop which pointed out a set of benchmarks for the evaluation of environmental indicators. The procedures were applied to an indicator used by the SMA/SP to illustrate the method's effectiveness. The results show that a strategic analysis framework can improve the environmental indicators required for the discussion on sustainability, providing a better guide to decision-makers.

  2. Palliative care development in Latin America: an analysis using macro indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastrana, Tania; Torres-Vigil, Isabel; De Lima, Liliana

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the Latin American Association for Palliative Care developed 10 indicators to monitor the development of palliative care and enhance the development of regional and national strategies. To compare the status of palliative care development across Latin American nations using the Latin American Association for Palliative Care indicators and to classify the countries into three levels of palliative care development. A secondary analysis using the following indicators (number of indicators in each category): Policy (1), Education (3), Service Provision (3), and Opioids (3). A Latin American Association for Palliative Care Index was constructed adding the standard score (z-score) of each indicator. Nineteen Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries of Latin America. Indicators significantly associated with the number of palliative care services per million inhabitants included: the proportion of medical schools with palliative care at the undergraduate level (p = 0.003), the number of accredited physicians working in palliative care (p = 0.001), and opioids consumed per capita (p = 0.032). According to the Latin American Association for Palliative Care Index, Costa Rica registered the highest score (8.1). Three ranking groups were built to measure palliative care development; Costa Rica, Chile, Mexico, and Argentina ranked in the high group, while Bolivia, Honduras, Dominican Republic, and Guatemala ranked in the lowest group. Most of the Latin American Association for Palliative Care indicators are useful for assessing national levels of palliative care development. These indicators may be applicable to other world regions. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the specificity of each indicator. © The Author(s) 2014.

  3. Groundwater Development Stress: Global-Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M; Clark, Brian R; Ely, David M; Faunt, Claudia C

    2018-03-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  4. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  5. Combined statistical and spatially distributed hydrological model for evaluating future drought indices in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunwoo Kang

    2017-08-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.

  6. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2001-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  7. A theoretical model of the relationship between the h-index and other simple citation indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoli-Barsotti, Lucio; Lando, Tommaso

    2017-01-01

    Of the existing theoretical formulas for the h -index, those recently suggested by Burrell (J Informetr 7:774-783, 2013b) and by Bertoli-Barsotti and Lando (J Informetr 9(4):762-776, 2015) have proved very effective in estimating the actual value of the h -index Hirsch (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:16569-16572, 2005), at least at the level of the individual scientist. These approaches lead (or may lead) to two slightly different formulas, being based, respectively, on a "standard" and a "shifted" version of the geometric distribution. In this paper, we review the genesis of these two formulas-which we shall call the "basic" and "improved" Lambert- W formula for the h -index-and compare their effectiveness with that of a number of instances taken from the well-known Glänzel-Schubert class of models for the h -index (based, instead, on a Paretian model) by means of an empirical study. All the formulas considered in the comparison are "ready-to-use", i.e., functions of simple citation indicators such as: the total number of publications; the total number of citations; the total number of cited paper; the number of citations of the most cited paper. The empirical study is based on citation data obtained from two different sets of journals belonging to two different scientific fields: more specifically, 231 journals from the area of "Statistics and Mathematical Methods" and 100 journals from the area of "Economics, Econometrics and Finance", totaling almost 100,000 and 20,000 publications, respectively. The citation data refer to different publication/citation time windows, different types of "citable" documents, and alternative approaches to the analysis of the citation process ("prospective" and "retrospective"). We conclude that, especially in its improved version, the Lambert- W formula for the h -index provides a quite robust and effective ready-to-use rule that should be preferred to other known formulas if one's goal is (simply) to derive a reliable estimate of

  8. Merging remotely sensed data, models and indicators for a sustainable development of coastal aquaculture in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigolin, Daniele; Venier, Chiara; Amine Taji, Mohamed; Lourguioui, Hichem; Mangin, Antoine; Pastres, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Finfish cage farming is an economically relevant activity, which exerts pressures on coastal systems and thus require a science-based management, based on the Ecosystem Approach, in order to be carry out in a sustainable way. Within MEDINA project (EU 282977), ocean color data and models were used for estimating indicators of pressures of aquaculture installations along the north African coast. These indicators can provide important support for decision makers in the allocation of new zones for aquaculture, by taking into account the suitability of an area for this activity and minimizing negative environmental effects, thus enhancing the social acceptability of aquaculture. The increase in the number of farms represents a strategic objective for the Algerian food production sector, which is currently being supported by different national initiatives. The case-study presented in this work was carried out in the Gulf of Bejaia. Water quality for aquaculture was first screened based on ocean color CDOM data (http://www.globcolour.info/). The SWAN model was subsequently used to propagate offshore wave data and to derive wave height statistics. On this basis, sub-areas of the Gulf were ranked, according their optimality in respect to cage resistance and fish welfare requirements. At the three best sites an integrated aquaculture impact assessment model was therefore applied: this tool allows one to obtain a detailed representation of fish growth and population dynamics inside the rearing cages, and to simulate the deposition of uneaten food and faeces on the sediment and the subsequent mineralization of organic matter. This integrated model was used to produce a set of indicators of the fish cages environmental interaction under different scenarios of forcings (water temperature, feeding, currents). These model-derived indicators could usefully contribute to the implementation of the ecosystem approach for the management of aquaculture activities, also required by the

  9. Comparison and evaluation of indicator dilution models for bolus of ultrasound contrast agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harabis, Vratislav; Kolar, Radim; Mezl, Martin; Jirik, Radovan

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US) imaging is a promising diagnostic method, which enables the evaluation of tissue perfusion via different parameters. The mean transit time and time-to-peak parameters are the main time parameters and their values depend on the model used for the approximation of the noisy perfusion curves. In this paper, we described a new comparison of different perfusion models using a tissue mimicking phantom. The following models were compared: log-normal, lagged, Erlang, Gamma and the local density random walk model. We discovered that the mean-square error is not the best criterion for model evaluation. More important is the comparison between the estimated time perfusion parameters and the physical parameters of the developed tissue mimicking phantom. Based on the statistical analysis, we can suggest that for the DCE-US perfusion analysis more models should be used, excluding the log-normal model, which gives the highest error of mean transit time value. (paper)

  10. Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

  11. Constructing core competency indicators for clinical teachers in Taiwan: a qualitative analysis and an analytic hierarchy process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ai-Tzu; Lin, Jou-Wei

    2014-04-11

    The objective of this study was to construct a framework of core competency indicators of medical doctors who teach in the clinical setting in Taiwan and to evaluate the relative importance of the indicators among these clinical teachers. The preliminary framework of the indicators was developed from an in-depth interview conducted with 12 clinical teachers who had previously been recognized and awarded for their teaching excellence in university hospitals. The framework was categorized into 4 dimensions: 1) Expertise (i.e., professional knowledge and skill); 2) Teaching Ability; 3) Attitudes and Traits; and 4) Beliefs and Values. These areas were further divided into 11 sub-dimensions and 40 indicators. Subsequently, a questionnaire built upon this qualitative analysis was distributed to another group of 17 clinical teachers. Saaty's eigenvector approach, or the so-called analytic hierarchy process (AHP), was applied to perform the pairwise comparisons between indicators and to determine the ranking and relative importance of the indicators. Fourteen questionnaires were deemed valid for AHP assessment due to completeness of data input. The relative contribution of the four main dimensions was 31% for Attitudes and Traits, 30% for Beliefs and Values, 22% for Expertise, and 17% for Teaching Ability. Specifically, 9 out of the 10 top-ranked indicators belonged to the "Attitudes and Traits" or "Beliefs and Values" dimensions, indicating that inner characteristics (i.e., attitudes, traits, beliefs, and values) were perceived as more important than surface ones (i.e., professional knowledge, skills, and teaching competency). We performed a qualitative analysis and developed a questionnaire based upon an interview with experienced clinical teachers in Taiwan, and used this tool to construct the key features for the role model. The application has also demonstrated the relative importance in the dimensions of the core competencies for clinical teachers in Taiwan.

  12. Panel Analysis of Internet Booking of Travel and Holiday Accommodation Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksenija Dumičić

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article four development indicators have been carefully selected and their impact on the level of acceptance of the Internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation in selected European countries has been observed. The statistical panel analysis approach was used to determine the individual and the common impact of the development indicators. The analysis has shown that an individual’s wealth, the public expenditure on education, and the Internet penetration rate have a positive statistically significant impact on the level of acceptance of the Internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation whereas the share of individuals with low level Internet skills has a negative statistically significant impact. These results carry significant importance for economists, politicians and all other stakeholders responsible for tourism development in a country. The use of the unbalanced panel is the main limitation of the article.

  13. Measurement of infrared refractive indices of organic and organophosphorous compounds for optical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonkyn, Russell G.; Danby, Tyler O.; Birnbaum, Jerome C.; Taubman, Matthew S.; Bernacki, Bruce E.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Myers, Tanya L.

    2017-05-03

    The complex optical refractive index contains the optical constants, n($\\tilde{u}$)and k($\\tilde{u}$), which correspond to the dispersion and absorption of light within a medium, respectively. By obtaining the optical constants one can in principle model most optical phenomena in media and at interfaces including reflection, refraction and dispersion. We have developed improved protocols based on the use of multiple path lengths to determine the optical constants for dozens of liquids, including organic and organophosphorous compounds. Detailed description of the protocols to determine the infrared indices will be presented, along with preliminary results using the constants with their applications to optical modeling.

  14. Correlation analysis of indicators of physical and technical preparedness karate school age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Sklyar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: identification of basic indicators of physical qualities at karate school age. Material : in the experiment involved 30 students, ages 16-18 years, with experience training Shotokan Karate 10 years. Results : the density of the relationship of indicators of physical and technical preparedness of the students of the senior classes of secondary school, with long experience of employment Shotokan Karate. Results identified training standards regulated program of physical culture for secondary schools (grades 10-11 and technical characteristics often performed percussion techniques in competitive fights in Shotokan Karate using techniques and specialized shock chronodynamometry ergometer. Correlation analysis revealed that the greatest influence on the formation of shock art of karate techniques at this age is the level of development of high-speed capacity, endurance, strength, complex muscle groups and mobility in the hip joint. Conclusions : the landmark data indicators positively affects the formation of karate techniques.

  15. Improving the performance of high-energy physics analysis through bitmap indices

    CERN Document Server

    Stockinger, K; Hoschek, W; Schikuta, E

    2000-01-01

    Bitmap indices are popular multi-dimensional data structures for accessing read-mostly data such as data warehouse (DW) applications, decision support systems (DSS) and online analytical processing (OLAP). One of their main strengths is that they provide good performance characteristics for complex adhoc queries and an efficient combination of multiple index dimensions in one query. Considerable research work has been done in the area of finite (and low) attribute cardinalities. However, additional complexity is imposed on the design of bitmap indices for high cardinality or even non-discrete attributes, where different optimisation techniques than the ones proposed so far have to be applied. We discuss the design and implementation of bitmap indices for high-energy physics (HEP) analysis, where the potential search space consists of hundreds of independent dimensions. A single HEP query typically covers 10 to 100 dimensions out of the whole search space. In this context we evaluated two different bitmap enco...

  16. Conflict over natural resource management a social indicator based on analysis of online news media text

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; David P. Fan

    1999-01-01

    An indicator of the level of conflict over natural resource management was developed and applied to the case of U.S. national forest policy and management. Computer-coded content analysis was used to identify expressions of conflict in a national database of almost 10,000 news media stories about the U.S. Forest Service. Changes in the amount of news media discussion...

  17. Applying the Goal-Question-Indicator-Metric (GQIM) Method to Perform Military Situational Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-11

    MAXIMUM 200 WORDS ) When developing situational awareness in support of military operations, the U.S. armed forces use a mnemonic, or memory aide, to...REV-03.18.2016.0 Applying the Goal- Question -Indicator- Metric (GQIM) Method to Perform Military Situational Analysis Douglas Gray May 2016...Acknowledgments The subject matter covered in this technical note evolved from an excellent question from Capt. Tomomi Ogasawara, Japan Ground Self

  18. The analysis of selected indicators and their influence on the socio-economic development of Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdálková, Sabrina

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyse and discuss influence of education, health and population growth on the socio-economic development of Kenya. The first part describes general characteristics of development, developing world, poverty and selected indicators. The main work is focused on the analysis of impact of health, population growth and education on Kenya's development, while statistical methods as correlation and trend line are used. The results show that there is a strong co...

  19. Analysis on Indications and Causes of Cesarean Section on Pemba Island of Zanzibar in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Liping Zhou; Zubeir TS; Hamida SA

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To explore and analyze the indications and causes of cesarean section on Pemba island of Zanzibar in Africa to improve the quality of obstetrics. Methods: 564 patients performed cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba from January, 2008 to December, 2011 were selected, and statistics was conducted by the method of retrospective analysis. Results: The rate of cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba was 10.01%. The primary causes of cesarean section included cep...

  20. Economy-wide material flow indicators in the Czech Republic: trends, decoupling analysis and uncertainties

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kovanda, J.; Hák, T.; Janáček, Jiří

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 1 (2008), s. 25-41 ISSN 0957-4352 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA205/04/0582; GA MŽP(CZ) SM/320/2/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : material flow indicators * trends * decoupling analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.568, year: 2008

  1. Diagnostic indicators of non-cardiovascular chest pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wertli, Maria M; Ruchti, Katrin B; Steurer, Johann; Held, Ulrike

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Non-cardiovascular chest pain (NCCP) has a high healthcare cost, but insufficient guidelines exist for its diagnostic investigation. The objective of the present work was to identify important diagnostic indicators and their accuracy for specific and non-specific conditions underlying NCCP. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. In May 2012, six databases were searched. Hand and bibliography searches were also conducted. Studies evaluating a diagnostic test...

  2. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara Razavi

    2016-01-01

    All climate models predicted increasing trends for extreme temperature indices, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation (RX1day and RX5day, total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation days (R20mm, Summer Days (SU, and Tropical Nights (TR and decreasing trend for Forest Days (FD and Ice Days (ID in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to present. CanRCM4 model did consistently project values in the upper range of the CMIP5 ensemble while the PRECIS ensemble was more in-line with the CMIP5 mean values. This difference may however be a function of different emission scenarios used.

  3. Ventilation Model and Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    V. Chipman

    2003-07-18

    This model and analysis report develops, validates, and implements a conceptual model for heat transfer in and around a ventilated emplacement drift. This conceptual model includes thermal radiation between the waste package and the drift wall, convection from the waste package and drift wall surfaces into the flowing air, and conduction in the surrounding host rock. These heat transfer processes are coupled and vary both temporally and spatially, so numerical and analytical methods are used to implement the mathematical equations which describe the conceptual model. These numerical and analytical methods predict the transient response of the system, at the drift scale, in terms of spatially varying temperatures and ventilation efficiencies. The ventilation efficiency describes the effectiveness of the ventilation process in removing radionuclide decay heat from the drift environment. An alternative conceptual model is also developed which evaluates the influence of water and water vapor mass transport on the ventilation efficiency. These effects are described using analytical methods which bound the contribution of latent heat to the system, quantify the effects of varying degrees of host rock saturation (and hence host rock thermal conductivity) on the ventilation efficiency, and evaluate the effects of vapor and enhanced vapor diffusion on the host rock thermal conductivity.

  4. Ventilation Model and Analysis Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chipman, V.

    2003-01-01

    This model and analysis report develops, validates, and implements a conceptual model for heat transfer in and around a ventilated emplacement drift. This conceptual model includes thermal radiation between the waste package and the drift wall, convection from the waste package and drift wall surfaces into the flowing air, and conduction in the surrounding host rock. These heat transfer processes are coupled and vary both temporally and spatially, so numerical and analytical methods are used to implement the mathematical equations which describe the conceptual model. These numerical and analytical methods predict the transient response of the system, at the drift scale, in terms of spatially varying temperatures and ventilation efficiencies. The ventilation efficiency describes the effectiveness of the ventilation process in removing radionuclide decay heat from the drift environment. An alternative conceptual model is also developed which evaluates the influence of water and water vapor mass transport on the ventilation efficiency. These effects are described using analytical methods which bound the contribution of latent heat to the system, quantify the effects of varying degrees of host rock saturation (and hence host rock thermal conductivity) on the ventilation efficiency, and evaluate the effects of vapor and enhanced vapor diffusion on the host rock thermal conductivity

  5. Analytic network process model for sustainable lean and green manufacturing performance indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminuddin, Adam Shariff Adli; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Mohamed, Nik Mohd Zuki Nik

    2014-09-01

    Sustainable manufacturing is regarded as the most complex manufacturing paradigm to date as it holds the widest scope of requirements. In addition, its three major pillars of economic, environment and society though distinct, have some overlapping among each of its elements. Even though the concept of sustainability is not new, the development of the performance indicator still needs a lot of improvement due to its multifaceted nature, which requires integrated approach to solve the problem. This paper proposed the best combination of criteria en route a robust sustainable manufacturing performance indicator formation via Analytic Network Process (ANP). The integrated lean, green and sustainable ANP model can be used to comprehend the complex decision system of the sustainability assessment. The finding shows that green manufacturing is more sustainable than lean manufacturing. It also illustrates that procurement practice is the most important criteria in the sustainable manufacturing performance indicator.

  6. Incidence of social phobia and identification of its risk indicators: a model for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acarturk, C; Smit, F; de Graaf, R; van Straten, A; ten Have, M; Cuijpers, P

    2009-01-01

    This study seeks to examine the incidence of social phobia in the general population and to establish a number of risk indicators. Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) which is a population based prospective study (n=7076). A sample of adults aged 18-64 years (n=5618) were re-interviewed 1 year later using Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The 12-month incidence of DSM-III-R social phobia was 1.0%. Low education, low mastery, low self-esteem, emotional neglect in childhood and ongoing difficulties were found to be risk indicators. After including other mental disorders as risk indicators in the model, the incidence was found to be more common among those with low mastery, major depression, subthreshold social phobia, emotional neglect, negative life events, and low education. The incidence of social phobia can be predicted relatively well with psychosocial variables and comorbidity.

  7. Spatial analysis of vector-borne infectious diseases and ecological indicators using GIS and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.

    2017-12-01

    Ecological and climate indicators play a vital role in defining patterns of human activities and behaviors, such as seasonal features, migration, winter-summer lifestyles, which in turn might be associated with vector-borne disease habitats and transmission risks. Remote sensing has been instrumental in deriving environmental variables and indicators. GIS is shown to be a powerful tool in spatiotemporal visualization and distribution of vector-borne diseases and for analysis of associations between environmental conditions and characteristics of vector-borne habitats. Vietnam is in the sub-tropical climate zone with high humidity and abundant precipitation, while the distribution of precipitation is uneven leading to frequently annual occurrence of drought and flood disasters. Moreover, urban heat island effect is significantly enhanced in urbanized areas in recent years. The increase in the frequency and magnitude of severity of weather extremes that are potentially linked to climate change and anthropogenic processes have highlighted the demand of research into health risk assessment and adaptive capacity. This research focuses on the analysis of physical features of environmental indicators and its association with vector-borne diseases as well as adaptive capacity. The study illustrates how remotely sensed data has been utilized in geohealth applications, surveillance, and health risk mapping. In addition, promising possibilities of allowing disease early-warning systems with citizen participation platform will be proposed. Keywords: Vector-borne diseases; environmental indicators; remote sensing; GIS; Vietnam.

  8. A Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience Composite Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccari, Benjamin

    2016-03-14

    % to the disaster environment, 20% to the economic environment, 13% to the built environment, 6% to the natural environment and 3% were other indices. However variables specifically measuring action to mitigate or prepare for disasters only comprised 12%, on average, of the total number of variables in each index. Only 19% of methodologies employed any sensitivity or uncertainty analysis and in only a single case was this comprehensive. A number of potential limitations of the present state of practice and how these might impact on decision makers are discussed. In particular the limited deployment of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and the low use of direct measures of disaster risk, vulnerability and resilience could significantly limit the quality and reliability of existing methodologies. Recommendations for improvements to indicator development and use are made, as well as suggested future research directions to enhance the theoretical and empirical knowledge base for composite indicator development.

  9. DETERMINING FACTORS AND INDICATORS FOR ALTERNATIVE MODEL OF NATIONAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NELLY B.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This research surveys, interviews and Questionnaire were conducted by relevant agencies. Data was analyzed by calculating the cumulative frequency distribution and the average value (Mean to 5 Likert scale, Validation, reliability, Pattern Model and Hypothesis were analyzed by SPSS 17 software for Windows. Validity model and the Measurement Model were examined by using Smart software PLS. The results show that the mean was 3.98 for Product Cost Appropriate and Stable Factor, 4.39 for High Productivity Factor, 4.36 for Enough Capital Factor, 3.73 for Character Farmers Factor, 4.28 for Information Access Factor, and 4.44 for High Production Factor. The data were valid and reliable. The relationship between the factors and indicators show strong correlation with an average of 0.96 with model pattern Quadratic and Cubic. Test Goodness of Fit model was fit. Hypothesis test results with five independent variables and one dependent variables were significant, excepted Character Farmers Factor and Information Access Factor were not significant to High Production Factor. Model was able to explain the phenomenon of high production by 91.7%, while the rest (8.3% was explained by other variables not included in the model under studied. Enhancement production of national soybean would be affected dominantly by sufficient capital (97%.

  10. Statistical analysis of energy indices of solar radiation (Based on the data of Tokmak Solar Power Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov M.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Average daily or monthly data of solar radiation are often used in statistical analysis and in development of mathematical models for predicting energy generation. However, this can have a negative impact on the accuracy of forecasting. The authors carried out the statistical analysis of solar radiation based on the data obtained from the Tokmak SPS of the Zaporizhia region, Ukraine during 2016. The data were collected with a 30-minute interval in measurement. The analysis indicates close values of winter and summer insulation indices (direct and scattered, where the difference is approximately double. The mathematical expectation of the power surges is close to zero, and their distribution has signs of symmetry. The results of actual data calculation indicate that values of the elementary power surges of the SPS are a bit higher than the normal distribution calculated. Thus, the actual distribution corresponds to the normal one in the parameter of symmetry, but does not correspond to the parameters of kurtosis. If the time range is doubled from 30 minutes to 1 hour, the range of power changes slightly increases. In addition, the analysis of meteorological data showed that the probability of a prolonged growth or decline in power is not high, i.e. a change in power as a random process can be considered close to the stationary one. The performed analysis estimates the power supply possibilities for the region’s consumers by the solar power plant, and creates a mathematical model for operation of the combined energy system that uses solar energy.

  11. Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

    2017-07-01

    Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

  12. ANALYSIS MODEL FOR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA BURJA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The inventory represents an essential component for the assets of the enterprise and the economic analysis gives them special importance because their accurate management determines the achievement of the activity object and the financial results. The efficient management of inventory requires ensuring an optimum level for them, which will guarantee the normal functioning of the activity with minimum inventory expenses and funds which are immobilised. The paper presents an analysis model for inventory management based on their rotation speed and the correlation with the sales volume illustrated in an adequate study. The highlighting of the influence factors on the efficient inventory management ensures the useful information needed to justify managerial decisions, which will lead to a balancedfinancial position and to increased company performance.

  13. Simplified model for DNB analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Filho, E.

    1979-08-01

    In a pressurized water nuclear reactor (PWR), the power of operation is restricted by the possibility of the occurrence of the departure from nucleate boiling called DNB (Departure from Nucleate Boiling) in the hottest channel of the core. The present work proposes a simplified model that analyses the thermal-hydraulic conditions of the coolant in the hottest channel of PWRs with the objective to evaluate BNB in this channel. For this the coupling between the hot channel and typical nominal channels assumed imposing the existence of a cross flow between these channels in a way that a uniforme pressure axial distribution results along the channels. The model is applied for Angra-I reactor and the results are compared with those of Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) obtained by Westinghouse through the THINC program, beeing considered satisfactory (Author) [pt

  14. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence analysis of pollen as an indicator for atmospheric pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepponi, G. E-mail: pepponi@itc.it; Lazzeri, P.; Coghe, N.; Bersani, M.; Gottardini, E.; Cristofolini, F.; Clauser, G.; Torboli, A

    2004-08-31

    The viability of pollen is affected by environmental pollution and its use as a bio-indicator is proposed. Such effects can be observed and quantified by biological tests. However, a more accurate identification of the agents affecting the viability is required in order to validate the biological assay for environmental monitoring. The chemical analysis of pollen is meant to ascertain the existence of a correlation between its reduced biological functions and the presence of pollutants. Moreover, such biological systems act as accumulators and allow the detection and quantification of species present in the environment at low concentrations. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence analysis (TXRF) has been chosen for the investigation due to its high sensitivity, multielement capability and wide dynamic range. Corylus avellana L. (hazel) pollen has been collected in areas with different anthropic impact in the province of Trento, Italy. For the TXRF measurements, a liquid sample is needed, especially if a quantitative analysis is required. In the present work, the analysis after a microwave digestion has been compared with the analysis of a suspension of the pollen samples. In both cases, an internal standard has been used for the quantification. The concentrations of 17 elements ranging from Al to Pb have been determined in 13 samples. Analysis of the suspensions showed to be comparable to that of digested samples in terms of spectral quality, but the latter preparation method gave better reproducibility. Sub-ppm lowest limits of detection were obtained for iron and heavier elements detected.

  15. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) reflecting environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivula, Matti J

    2011-01-01

    Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in 'natural' conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as 'indicators' - a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1) Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2) Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3) Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and 'ecosystem health'. (4) Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5) Carabids reflect variation in 'natural' conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6) Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7) Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because they are diverse

  16. Health and health-related indicators in slum, rural, and urban communities: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mberu, Blessing U; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Ezeh, Alex C

    2016-01-01

    It is generally assumed that urban slum residents have worse health status when compared with other urban populations, but better health status than their rural counterparts. This belief/assumption is often because of their physical proximity and assumed better access to health care services in urban areas. However, a few recent studies have cast doubt on this belief. Whether slum dwellers are better off, similar to, or worse off as compared with rural and other urban populations remain poorly understood as indicators for slum dwellers are generally hidden in urban averages. The aim of this study was to compare health and health-related indicators among slum, rural, and other urban populations in four countries where specific efforts have been made to generate health indicators specific to slum populations. We conducted a comparative analysis of health indicators among slums, non-slums, and all urban and rural populations as well as national averages in Bangladesh, Kenya, Egypt, and India. We triangulated data from demographic and health surveys, urban health surveys, and special cross-sectional slum surveys in these countries to assess differences in health indicators across the residential domains. We focused the comparisons on child health, maternal health, reproductive health, access to health services, and HIV/AIDS indicators. Within each country, we compared indicators for slums with non-slum, city/urban averages, rural, and national indicators. Between-country differences were also highlighted. In all the countries, except India, slum children had much poorer health outcomes than children in all other residential domains, including those in rural areas. Childhood illnesses and malnutrition were higher among children living in slum communities compared to those living elsewhere. Although treatment seeking was better among slum children as compared with those in rural areas, this did not translate to better mortality outcomes. They bear a disproportionately

  17. Health and health-related indicators in slum, rural, and urban communities: a comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blessing U. Mberu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is generally assumed that urban slum residents have worse health status when compared with other urban populations, but better health status than their rural counterparts. This belief/assumption is often because of their physical proximity and assumed better access to health care services in urban areas. However, a few recent studies have cast doubt on this belief. Whether slum dwellers are better off, similar to, or worse off as compared with rural and other urban populations remain poorly understood as indicators for slum dwellers are generally hidden in urban averages. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare health and health-related indicators among slum, rural, and other urban populations in four countries where specific efforts have been made to generate health indicators specific to slum populations. Design: We conducted a comparative analysis of health indicators among slums, non-slums, and all urban and rural populations as well as national averages in Bangladesh, Kenya, Egypt, and India. We triangulated data from demographic and health surveys, urban health surveys, and special cross-sectional slum surveys in these countries to assess differences in health indicators across the residential domains. We focused the comparisons on child health, maternal health, reproductive health, access to health services, and HIV/AIDS indicators. Within each country, we compared indicators for slums with non-slum, city/urban averages, rural, and national indicators. Between-country differences were also highlighted. Results: In all the countries, except India, slum children had much poorer health outcomes than children in all other residential domains, including those in rural areas. Childhood illnesses and malnutrition were higher among children living in slum communities compared to those living elsewhere. Although treatment seeking was better among slum children as compared with those in rural areas, this did not translate to

  18. Comparison between model-predicted tumor oxygenation dynamics and vascular-/flow-related Doppler indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belfatto, Antonella; Vidal Urbinati, Ailyn M; Ciardo, Delia; Franchi, Dorella; Cattani, Federica; Lazzari, Roberta; Jereczek-Fossa, Barbara A; Orecchia, Roberto; Baroni, Guido; Cerveri, Pietro

    2017-05-01

    Mathematical modeling is a powerful and flexible method to investigate complex phenomena. It discloses the possibility of reproducing expensive as well as invasive experiments in a safe environment with limited costs. This makes it suitable to mimic tumor evolution and response to radiotherapy although the reliability of the results remains an issue. Complexity reduction is therefore a critical aspect in order to be able to compare model outcomes to clinical data. Among the factors affecting treatment efficacy, tumor oxygenation is known to play a key role in radiotherapy response. In this work, we aim at relating the oxygenation dynamics, predicted by a macroscale model trained on tumor volumetric data of uterine cervical cancer patients, to vascularization and blood flux indices assessed on Ultrasound Doppler images. We propose a macroscale model of tumor evolution based on three dynamics, namely active portion, necrotic portion, and oxygenation. The model parameters were assessed on the volume size of seven cervical cancer patients administered with 28 fractions of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) (1.8 Gy/fraction). For each patient, five Doppler ultrasound tests were acquired before, during, and after the treatment. The lesion was manually contoured by an expert physician using 4D View ® (General Electric Company - Fairfield, Connecticut, United States), which automatically provided the overall tumor volume size along with three vascularization and/or blood flow indices. Volume data only were fed to the model for training purpose, while the predicted oxygenation was compared a posteriori to the measured Doppler indices. The model was able to fit the tumor volume evolution within 8% error (range: 3-8%). A strong correlation between the intrapatient longitudinal indices from Doppler measurements and oxygen predicted by the model (about 90% or above) was found in three cases. Two patients showed an average correlation value (50-70%) and the remaining

  19. Correlation analysis of energy indicators for sustainable development using multivariate statistical techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carneiro, Alvaro Luiz Guimaraes [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN-CNEN/SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], E-mail: carneiro@ipen.br; Santos, Francisco Carlos Barbosa dos [Fundacao Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas (FIPE/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], E-mail: fcarlos@fipe.org.br

    2007-07-01

    Energy is an essential input for social development and economic growth. The production and use of energy cause environmental degradation at all levels, being local, regional and global such as, combustion of fossil fuels causing air pollution; hydropower often causes environmental damage due to the submergence of large areas of land; and global climate change associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As mentioned in chapter 9 of Agenda 21, the Energy is essential to economic and social development and improved quality of life. Much of the world's energy, however, is currently produced and consumed in ways that could not be sustained if technologies were remain constant and if overall quantities were to increase substantially. All energy sources will need to be used in ways that respect the atmosphere, human health, and the environment as a whole. The energy in the context of sustainable development needs a set of quantifiable parameters, called indicators, to measure and monitor important changes and significant progress towards the achievement of the objectives of sustainable development policies. The indicators are divided into four dimensions: social, economic, environmental and institutional. This paper shows a methodology of analysis using Multivariate Statistical Technique that provide the ability to analyse complex sets of data. The main goal of this study is to explore the correlation analysis among the indicators. The data used on this research work, is an excerpt of IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica) data census. The core indicators used in this study follows The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) framework: Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development. (author)

  20. Correlation analysis of energy indicators for sustainable development using multivariate statistical techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carneiro, Alvaro Luiz Guimaraes; Santos, Francisco Carlos Barbosa dos

    2007-01-01

    Energy is an essential input for social development and economic growth. The production and use of energy cause environmental degradation at all levels, being local, regional and global such as, combustion of fossil fuels causing air pollution; hydropower often causes environmental damage due to the submergence of large areas of land; and global climate change associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As mentioned in chapter 9 of Agenda 21, the Energy is essential to economic and social development and improved quality of life. Much of the world's energy, however, is currently produced and consumed in ways that could not be sustained if technologies were remain constant and if overall quantities were to increase substantially. All energy sources will need to be used in ways that respect the atmosphere, human health, and the environment as a whole. The energy in the context of sustainable development needs a set of quantifiable parameters, called indicators, to measure and monitor important changes and significant progress towards the achievement of the objectives of sustainable development policies. The indicators are divided into four dimensions: social, economic, environmental and institutional. This paper shows a methodology of analysis using Multivariate Statistical Technique that provide the ability to analyse complex sets of data. The main goal of this study is to explore the correlation analysis among the indicators. The data used on this research work, is an excerpt of IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica) data census. The core indicators used in this study follows The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) framework: Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development. (author)

  1. Content Analysis of Online Undergraduate Student-Generated Questions and the Development of Its Creativity Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Yun Yu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In light of current research gaps in online student-generated questions (SGQ (as most studies on the content types, forms, and performance criteria of SGQ are done in math, adopting a structured format, using a paper-and-pencil form, and paying less attention to affective aspects, the purposes of this study are: first, to analyze the content, forms, and techniques of online SGQ via content analysis; second, to develop the creative indicators for online SGQ and establish the validity of the devised indicators. For the first purpose, 792 questions generated by 54 student teachers during online SGQ activities were subjected to content analysis. For the second purpose, another group of 40 student teachers completed a consensus questionnaire, and the data were analyzed via repeated measures, followed by post-hoc comparisons. Four major findings were obtained: 1 with regard to the contents of online SGQ, connections to personal daily life and future personal goals were frequently observed; 2 most participants took advantage of the formatting, color, and graphics features afforded in computer technologies during online SGQ to suit multiple purposes; 3 participants exhibited versatile skills during SGQ; 4 questions with different levels of creativity differed significantly in terms of novelty and interestingness indicators, supporting the validity of the devised indicators. Yet, no significant differences were found in the usefulness indicator, supporting the claim that novelty and interestingness do not necessarily compromise the perceived usefulness of the generated item. Based on the findings, suggestions for SGQ, creative teaching, and future research are provided.

  2. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  3. Measurement of wire deflection on loading may indicate union in Ilizarov constructs, an in vitro model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineham, Beth; Stewart, Todd; Harwood, Paul

    2018-02-02

    No entirely reliable method exists for assessing union during Ilizarov treatment. Premature removal results in potential treatment failure; hence, alternative methods warrant investigation. Wire deflection might provide an indication of fracture site deformation on weight bearing, indicating progress towards union. This study aimed to test a method for assessing wire deflection within an Ilizarov frame. (1) To assess the repeatability of our novel measurement method in measuring wire deflection within an Ilizarov frame in vitro. (2) To compare the amount of wire deflection in an unstable model with that in an intact bone model. (3) To assess accuracy of this method by comparing wire deflection measured with overall machine extension. Tests were performed on clinical grade-tensioned fine wire 4-ring Ilizarov constructs stabilising a simulated fracture, with and without an unstable defect. Models were sequentially loaded to 700 N using an Instron testing machine. A digital depth gauge attached to the superior ring measured relative wire displacement at the ring closest to the fracture. Tests were repeated 3 times. (1) Both unstable and stable bone models produced highly repeatable load deformation curves (R 2  = 0.98 and 0.99). (2) In the unstable model, wires tensioned at 882 and 1274 N produced mean maximum deflections of 2.41 and 2.69 mm compared with 0.05 and 0.04 mm in the intact bone model (significant p measurable difference in wire deflection between stable and unstable situations exists using this method which appears accurate and repeatable, with clear correlation between displacement and load and displacement and machine extension. This approach might be clinically applicable, and further clinical testing is required.

  4. ANALYSIS OF ENERGETIC INDICES OF TRADITIONAL GEARED ELEVATING MECHANISM WITH TWO-SPEED ASYNCHRONOUS MOTOR FOR PASSENGER LIFTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyko A.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the technique of the mathematical description and researches of the two- speed asynchronous electric drive for the passenger lift of a traditional design is offered. The mathematical model is presented and its elements are described. The attention is paid to nonlinearities of the two-speed asynchronous electric drive and to detailed analysis of its energetic indices. The results of research of electromechanical transformation in the mechanism of the passenger lift with the two - speed asynchronous motor by a method of mathematical modeling are submitted. At researches are taken into account: variable parameters of an equivalent circuit of the asynchronous motor at work on high and low speeds, variable value of а worm gear reducer efficiency, load of a cabin, direction and real structure of a motion cycle of the lift, which moved under the optimum diagram. The results of modeling are checked up and are confirmed experimentally on the working passenger lift.

  5. Stability Analysis of the Embankment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.S. Gopalakrishna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In analysis of embankment model affected by dynamic force, employment of shaking table is a scientific way in assessment of earthquake behavior. This work focused on saturated loose sandy foundation and enbankment. The results generated through the pore pressure sensors indicated pore water pressure playing main role in creation of liquefaction and stability of the system, and also revealed deformation, settlement, liquefaction intensity and time stability of system in direct correlation with the strength and characteristics of soil. One of the economical methods in stabilization of soil foundation is improvement of some part soil foundation.

  6. Stable isotope analysis indicates a lack of inter- and intra-specific dietary redundancy among ecologically important coral reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plass-Johnson, J. G.; McQuaid, C. D.; Hill, J. M.

    2013-06-01

    Parrotfish are critical consumers on coral reefs, mediating the balance between algae and corals, and are often categorised into three functional groups based on adult morphology and feeding behaviour. We used stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N) to investigate size-related ontogenetic dietary changes in multiple species of parrotfish on coral reefs around Zanzibar. We compared signatures among species and functional groups (scrapers, excavators and browsers) as well as ontogenetic stages (immature, initial and terminal phase) within species. Stable isotope analysis suggests that ontogenetic dietary shifts occurred in seven of the nine species examined; larger individuals had enriched δ13C values, with no relationship between size and δ15N. The relationship between fish length and δ13C signature was maintained when species were categorised as scrapers and excavators, but was more pronounced for scrapers than excavators, indicating stronger ontogenetic changes. Isotopic mixing models classified the initial phase of both the most abundant excavator ( Chlorurus sordidus) as a scraper and the immature stage of the scraper Scarus ghobban (the largest species) as an excavator, indicating that diet relates to size rather than taxonomy. The results indicate that parrotfish may show similar intra-group changes in diet with length, but that their trophic ecology is more complex than suggested by morphology alone. Stable isotope analyses indicate that feeding ecology may differ among species within functional groups, and according to ontogenetic stage within a species.

  7. Indicators Non-Financial Performance Assessment: Content Analysis of Telecommunications Companies of Management Reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Belloli De Vargas

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, business activities adopt performance evaluation as a tool for the efficiency and effectiveness estimation. This article aims to identify the non-financial measures for performance evaluation disclosed by companies in the telecommunication sector listed on the BOVESPA. The use and disclosure of non-financial indicators emerged from the gap left by traditional accounting to explain special issues such as the difference between the book value and the market value of companies. The government regulates the telecommunications sector that also has to meet the appropriate corporative enforcement. The regulatory agencies exercise this control, on behalf of the public services granting carried out by private companies. The study selected the data samples from the telecommunications sector; fixed, and mobile telephony lists using the content analysis of the management annual reports published at the companies' sites, and interpreted using the descriptive statistical analysis. The content analyses find nonfinancial indicators in all reports. The results highlight human resources, followed by the environmental issues number of indicators disclosure. All analyzed companies use the services customer satisfaction and the number of complaints. The results difference maybe because of service and not industry sector sample selection as presented in previous studies.

  8. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae reflecting environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matti Koivula

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in ‘natural’ conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as ‘indicators’ − a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1 Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2 Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3 Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and ‘ecosystem health’. (4 Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5 Carabids reflect variation in ‘natural’ conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6 Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7 Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because

  9. Analysis of Land-Use Emergy Indicators Based on Urban Metabolism: A Case Study for Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Huang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The correlation of urban metabolism and changes in land use is an important issue in urban ecology, but recent research lacks consideration of the mechanisms and interactions between them. In this research, we did an emergy analysis of the flows of materials, energy, and capital within the socioeconomic system of Beijing. We calculated emergy-based evaluation indices of urban metabolism and land use change, to analyze the relationship between urban metabolism and land use by correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results indicate that the socio-economic activities on built-up land depend on local, non-renewable resource exploitation and external resource inputs. The emergy utilization efficiency of farmland has consistently decreased, but there remains significant utilization potential there. Urban development in Beijing relies on production activities on built-up land, which is subjected to great environmental pressure during extraction of material resources. To keep the economy developing effectively, we suggest that Beijing should commit to development of a circular economy, and change the land-use concept to “Smart Growth”. In this paper, we efficaciously solve the problem of conflicting measurement units, and avoid the disadvantages of subjective assignment. Consequently, this work provides not only a more scientific way to study land problems, but also provides a reliable reference for ecological construction and economic development in Beijing.

  10. Use of Selection Indices Based on Multivariate Analysis for Improving Grain Yield in Rice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein SABOURI

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to study selection indices for improving rice grain yield, a cross was made between an Iranian traditional rice (Oryza sativa L. variety, Tarommahalli and an improved indica rice variety, Khazar in 2006. The traits of the parents (30 plants, F1 (30 plants and F2 generations (492 individuals were evaluated at the Rice Research Institute of Iran (RRII during 2007. Heritabilities of the number of panicles per plant, plant height, days to heading and panicle exsertion were greater than that of grain yield. The selection indices were developed using the results of multivariate analysis. To evaluate selection strategies to maximize grain yield, 14 selection indices were calculated based on two methods (optimum and base and combinations of 12 traits with various economic weights. Results of selection indices showed that selection for grain weight, number of panicles per plant and panicle length by using their phenotypic and/or genotypic direct effects (path coefficient as economic weights should serve as an effective selection criterion for using either the optimum or base index.

  11. Identifying indicators of harmful and problem gambling in a Canadian sample through receiver operating characteristic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, Lena C; Avila Murati, Daniela; Bagby, R Michael

    2014-03-01

    Many gamblers would prefer to reduce gambling on their own rather than to adopt an abstinence approach within the context of a gambling treatment program. Yet responsible gambling guidelines lack quantifiable markers to guide gamblers in wagering safely. To address these issues, the current investigation implemented receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify behavioral indicators of harmful and problem gambling. Gambling involvement was assessed in 503 participants (275 psychiatric outpatients and 228 community gamblers) with the Canadian Problem Gambling Index. Overall gambling frequency, duration, and expenditure were able to distinguish harmful and problematic gambling at a moderate level. Indicators of harmful gambling were generated for engagement in specific gambling activities: frequency of tickets and casino; duration of bingo, casino, and investments; and expenditures on bingo, casino, sports betting, games of skill, and investments. Indicators of problem gambling were similarly produced for frequency of tickets and casino, and expenditures on bingo, casino, games of skill, and investments. Logistic regression analyses revealed that overall gambling frequency uniquely predicted the presence of harmful and problem gambling. Furthermore, frequency indicators for tickets and casino uniquely predicted the presence of both harmful and problem gambling. Together, these findings contribute to the development of an empirically based method enabling the minimization of harmful or problem gambling through self-control rather than abstinence.

  12. Analysis of Maternal and Child Health Indicators in an Area at Paraná State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliana Cristina Melo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze maternal and child health indicators and infant mortality rate (IMR at the cities located at the 18th Health Division (HD in Parana State, Brazil. In this ecological study we analyzed all live births and infant deaths which occurred from 2000 to 2009 at the 18th HD, collecting data from the Mortality Information Database and the Live Births Information Database. The variables assessed were grouped into maternal, pregnancy and delivery, and neonatal variables. The analysis was conducted using the mean percentage of each variable and the IMR calculated for both periods: from 2000 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2009. The IMR was reduced considerably, following Brazil's and Paraná State's trend. Maternal indicators went down regarding the mean percentage of teenage mothers and low education, whereas they went up regarding mother with 35 years old or older and mothers without a partner. Pregnancy indicators showed increased prematurity and cesarean birth. Neonatal indicators raised in black/brown skin color and low birth weights percentages. This study provides a better understanding of maternal and child health in the cities located at the 18th HD, supplying grounds to plan actions regarding the real needs of each specific city.

  13. Analysis of maternal and child health indicators in an area at paraná state, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Emiliana Cristina; Ribeiro, Ana Beatriz Guedes; de Oliveira, Rosana Rosseto; Zurita, Robsmeire Calvo Melo; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze maternal and child health indicators and infant mortality rate (IMR) at the cities located at the 18th Health Division (HD) in Parana State, Brazil. In this ecological study we analyzed all live births and infant deaths which occurred from 2000 to 2009 at the 18th HD, collecting data from the Mortality Information Database and the Live Births Information Database. The variables assessed were grouped into maternal, pregnancy and delivery, and neonatal variables. The analysis was conducted using the mean percentage of each variable and the IMR calculated for both periods: from 2000 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2009. The IMR was reduced considerably, following Brazil's and Paraná State's trend. Maternal indicators went down regarding the mean percentage of teenage mothers and low education, whereas they went up regarding mother with 35 years old or older and mothers without a partner. Pregnancy indicators showed increased prematurity and cesarean birth. Neonatal indicators raised in black/brown skin color and low birth weights percentages. This study provides a better understanding of maternal and child health in the cities located at the 18th HD, supplying grounds to plan actions regarding the real needs of each specific city.

  14. Estimating Irrigation Water Requirements using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Harriss, Robert; Harriss, Robert; Wells, Gordon; Glantz, Michael; Dukhovny, Victor A.; Orlovsky, Leah

    2007-01-01

    An inverse process approach using satellite-driven (MODIS) biophysical modeling was used to quantitatively assess water resource demand in semi-arid and arid agricultural lands by comparing the carbon and water flux modeled under both equilibrium (in balance with prevailing climate) and non-equilibrium (irrigated) conditions. Since satellite observations of irrigated areas show higher leaf area indices (LAI) than is supportable by local precipitation, we postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. For an observation year we used MODIS vegetation indices, local climate data, and the SiB2 photosynthesis-conductance model to examine the relationship between climate and the water stress function for a given grid-cell and observed leaf area. To estimate the minimum amount of supplemental water required for an observed cell, we added enough precipitation to the prevailing climatology at each time step to minimize the water stress function and bring the soil to field capacity. The experiment was conducted on irrigated lands on the U.S. Mexico border and Central Asia and compared to estimates of irrigation water used.

  15. Ecohydrologic Response of a Wetland Indicator Species to Climate Change and Streamflow Regulation: A Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. M.; Gorelick, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. Delta ecohydrology is expected to respond rapidly to upstream water demand and climate change, with earlier spring meltwater, decreased springtime peak flow, and a decline in springtime ice-jam flooding. We focus on changes in the population and distribution of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), an ecohydrologic indicator species. We present a conceptual model linking hydrology and muskrat ecology. Our conceptual model links seven modules representing (1) upstream water demand, (2) streamflow and snowmelt, (3) floods, (4) the water balance of floodplain lakes, (5) muskrat habitat suitability, (6) wetland vegetation, and (7) muskrat population dynamics predicted using an agent-based model. Our goal is to evaluate the effects of different climate change and upstream water demand scenarios on the abundance and distribution of Delta muskrat, from present-2100. Moving from the current conceptual model to a predictive quantitative model, we will rely on abundant existing data and Traditional Ecological Knowledge of muskrat and hydrology in the Delta.

  16. Analysis of the development and prediction of the population movement indicators in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is aimed at the presentation of findings obtained in the study of the development of time series of the population movement in the defined territorial unit and time interval 1993 – 2001. In addition to the exact evaluation of the dynamics and trend, the analysis of selected indicators is also aimed at a short-term extrapolation prediction. Developmental trends are specified of the population composition according to main age groups, live births according to legitimacy and the order of birth, deaths according to the cause of death, the first marriage according to a bridegroom and bride age, selected indicators of the marriage rate and divorce rate, divorce rate according to the number of underage children and foreign migration according to countries.

  17. Analysis of noninvasive predictive indices of esophageal varices in patients with posthepatitic cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Wenna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical significance of noninvasive predictive indices of esophageal varices (EV in patients with posthepatitic cirrhosis. MethodsSixty-four patients with posthepatitic cirrhosis, who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Yan′an University from February 2011 to January 2013, were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent gastroscopy to evaluate EV. The diameter of portal vein (PV, spleen length (SL, spleen thickness (ST, and degree of ascites were determined by abdominal ultrasound, and the spleen index (SI was calculated. Prothrombin time (PT, serum albumin (Alb, etc., were measured by laboratory testing. Liver function was assessed by Child-Pugh classification. The correlation between each index and EV or severe EV was analyzed based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. For normally distributed data, comparison of means between groups was made by one-way analysis of variance; for non-normally distributed data, comparison between groups was made by Kruskal-Wallis H test; correlation analysis was performed by Kendall′s rank correlation test. ResultsAmong the 64 patients, 48 (75% had various degrees of EV, including 14 mild cases, 12 moderate cases, and 22 severe cases. There were significant differences in SI, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD score, MELD-Na score between the patients with EV and those without EV (P<0.05. PV and SI showed significant differences between the mild cases and severe cases (P<0.05; SI showed significant differences between the mild cases and moderate cases and between the moderate cases and severe cases (P<0.05 for both. Alb showed significant difference only between the patients without EV and severe cases (P<0.01. No significant difference in PT was found between each two patient groups (P>0.05. As the severity of EV increases, PV, SI, MELD score, and MELD-Na score tended to increase, Alb showed a downward trend, and PT

  18. [Serologic surveillance indicators analysis among syphilis-infected pregnant women in East China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, L X; Wang, Q; Wang, X Y; Qiao, Y P; Su, M; Jin, X; Wang, A L

    2018-01-06

    Objective: To analyze serologic surveillance indicators during pregnancy among syphilis-infected women who delivered in 2013 in East China. Methods: Data were from national 'Information System of Prevention of Mother-to-child Transmission of HIV, syphilis and HBV Management' and in total 5 206 syphilis-infected pregnant women who delivered in 2013 and in East China were involved in the analysis. Information on demographic characters, laboratory tests, and treatment regimens were collected. The maternal non-treponemal testing surveillance and titer distribution were described and compare the proportions between pregnant women receiving standard testing and non-standard testing, taking baseline testing and testing before delivery or at the third trimester. Multivariate logistic regression model was analyzed using maternal titer control as dependent variable, using prior history of syphilis infection, syphilis stages, titer, gestational weeks of treatment initiation and treatment regimens as independent variables in 3 940 pregnant women with both baseline testing results and testing results before delivery or at the third trimester. Results: The ages of the 5 206 syphilis infected pregnant women were (28.1±5.8) years old. The numbers of women received penicillin treatment, other treatment regimens and no treatment were 2 967 (57.0%), 281 (5.4%), and 1 958 (37.6%), respectively. The number of women with maternal seroconversion, 4-fold or greater titer decline, or titer increase were 349 (6.7%), 251 (4.8%) and 28 (0.5%). Multivariate analysis results showed that compared with pregnant women with prior history of syphilis, the OR (95 %CI ) for maternal titer control was 1.49 (1.18-1.88) among those with syphilis-infection history. Compared with pregnant women initiated treatment at 28 gestational weeks or before, the OR (95 % CI ) for maternal titer control was 4.09 (3.19-5.24) among those who initiated treatment after 28 gestational weeks. Compared with pregnant women

  19. Physical Examination-Indicated Cerclage: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsanipoor, Robert M; Seligman, Neil S; Saccone, Gabriele; Szymanski, Linda M; Wissinger, Christina; Werner, Erika F; Berghella, Vincenzo

    2015-07-01

    To estimate the effectiveness of physical examination-indicated cerclage in the setting of second-trimester cervical dilatation by systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, ClinicalTrials.gov, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library for studies published between 1966 and 2014 that evaluated cervical cerclage for the treatment of cervical insufficiency. The search yielded 6,314 citations. We included cohort studies and randomized controlled trials comparing cerclage placement with expectant management of women with cervical dilatation between 14 and 27 weeks of gestation. Two investigators independently reviewed each citation for inclusion or exclusion and discordant decisions were arbitrated by a third reviewer. Summary estimates were reported as the mean difference and 95% confidence interval (CI) for continuous variables or relative risk and with 95% CI for dichotomous outcomes. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis was used, depending on heterogeneity. Ten studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. One was a randomized controlled trial, two were prospective cohort studies, and the remaining seven were retrospective cohort studies. Of the 757 women, 485 (64%) underwent physical examination-indicated cerclage placement and 272 (36%) were expectantly managed. Cerclage was associated with increased neonatal survival (71% compared with 43%; relative risk 1.65, 95% CI 1.19-2.28) and prolongation of pregnancy (mean difference 33.98 days, 95% CI 17.88-50.08). Physical examination-indicated cerclage is associated with a significant increase in neonatal survival and prolongation of pregnancy of approximately 1 month when compared with no such cerclage. The strength of this conclusion is limited by the potential for bias in the included studies.

  20. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and

  1. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  2. Sources of energy productivity change in China during 1997–2012: A decomposition analysis based on the Luenberger productivity indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ke; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2016-01-01

    Given that different energy inputs play different roles in production and that energy policy decision making requires an evaluation of productivity change in individual energy input to provide insight into the scope for improvement of the utilization of specific energy input, this study develops, based on the Luenberger productivity indicator and data envelopment analysis models, an aggregated specific energy productivity indicator combining the individual energy input productivity indicators that account for the contributions of each specific energy input toward energy productivity change. In addition, these indicators can be further decomposed into four factors: pure efficiency change, scale efficiency change, pure technology change, and scale of technology change. These decompositions enable a determination of which specific energy input is the driving force of energy productivity change and which of the four factors is the primary contributor of energy productivity change. An empirical analysis of China's energy productivity change over the period 1997–2012 indicates that (i) China's energy productivity growth may be overestimated if energy consumption structure is omitted; (ii) in regard to the contribution of specific energy input toward energy productivity growth, oil and electricity show positive contributions, but coal and natural gas show negative contributions; (iii) energy-specific productivity changes are mainly caused by technical changes rather than efficiency changes; and (iv) the Porter Hypothesis is partially supported in China that carbon emissions control regulations may lead to energy productivity growth. - Highlights: • An energy input specific Luenberger productivity indicator is proposed. • It enables to examine the contribution of specific energy input productivity change. • It can be decomposed for identifying pure and scale efficiency changes, as well as pure and scale technical changes. • China's energy

  3. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2014-05-01

    We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were

  4. Application of Statistical Method of Path Analysis to Describe Soil Biological Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kooch

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Among the collection of natural resources in the world, soil is considered as one of the most important components of the environment. Protect and improve the properties of this precious resource, requires a comprehensive and coordinated action that only through a deep understanding of quantitative (not only recognition of the quality the origin, distribution and functionality in a natural ecosystem is possible. Many researchers believe that due to the quick reactions of soil organisms to environmental changes, soil biological survey to estimate soil quality is more important than the chemical and physical properties. For this reason, in many studies the nitrogen mineralization and microbial respiration indices are regarded. The aim of the present study were to study the direct and indirect effects of soil physicochemical characteristics on the most important biological indicators (nitrogen mineralization and microbial respiration, which has not been carefully considered up to now. This research is the first study to provide evidence to the future planning and management of soil sciences. Materials and Methods: For this, a limitation of 20 ha area of Experimental Forest Station of Tarbiat Modares University was considered. Fifty five soil samples, from the top 15 cm of soil, were taken, from which bulk density, texture, organic C, total N, cation exchange capacity (CEC, nitrogen mineralization and microbial respiration were determined at the laboratory. The data stored in Excel as a database. To determine the relationship between biological indices and soil physicochemical characteristics, correlation analysis and factor analysis using principal component analysis (PCA were employed. To investigate all direct and indirect relationships between biological indices and different soil characteristics, path analysis (path analysis was used. Results and Discussion: Results showed significant positive relations between biological indices

  5. Alternation of Subjunctive and Indicative Forms in Speech of Ceará: a Variationist Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebe Macedo de Carvalho

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the alternation of subjunctive and indicative forms in spoken language in Fortaleza and investigates the acting of groups of factors semantic load of the verb of the matrix sentence (Pereira, 1974; ROCHA, 1997 and educational level of the speaker. Compares these results with the Cariri Cearense data (CARVALHO, 2007, whose objective is to describe the use of alternation in the two speech communities of Ceará. The comparison was possible because the two samples adopt the methodological procedures of variationist sociolinguistics for the data collection and coding and uses the Goldvarb X program for statistical analysis.

  6. Finite-dimensional effects and critical indices of one-dimensional quantum models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogolyubov, N.M.; Izergin, A.G.; Reshetikhin, N.Yu.

    1986-01-01

    Critical indices, depending on continuous parameters in Bose-gas quantum models and Heisenberg 1/2 spin antiferromagnetic in two-dimensional space-time at zero temperature, have been calculated by means of finite-dimensional effects. In this case the long-wave asymptotics of the correlation functions is of a power character. Derivation of man asymptotics terms is reduced to the determination of a central charge in the appropriate Virassoro algebra representation and the anomalous dimension-operator spectrum in this representation. The finite-dimensional effects allow to find these values

  7. Principal component analysis of tomato genotypes based on some morphological and biochemical quality indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glogovac Svetlana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates variability of tomato genotypes based on morphological and biochemical fruit traits. Experimental material is a part of tomato genetic collection from Institute of Filed and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad, Serbia. Genotypes were analyzed for fruit mass, locule number, index of fruit shape, fruit colour, dry matter content, total sugars, total acidity, lycopene and vitamin C. Minimum, maximum and average values and main indicators of variability (CV and σ were calculated. Principal component analysis was performed to determinate variability source structure. Four principal components, which contribute 93.75% of the total variability, were selected for analysis. The first principal component is defined by vitamin C, locule number and index of fruit shape. The second component is determined by dry matter content, and total acidity, the third by lycopene, fruit mass and fruit colour. Total sugars had the greatest part in the fourth component.

  8. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  9. Effects of the Feedback Models on the Comparison Indicators for Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Tae Woon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    Comparative assessment of various power systems can be treated as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In reality, there is interdependence among the decision elements (e.g., decision goal, decision criteria, and decision alternatives). In our previous work, using an analytic network process (ANP) technique, a comprehensive assessment framework for power systems was developed only for the feedback effect, one of the interdependence phenomena (e.g., feedback effect, inner dependence, outer dependence, independence) among the decision elements. It is assumed in an independence model that there is no interdependence among the decision elements. In the present work, the main objective is to investigate effects of the assessment models on comparison indicators (e.g., weighting factors, overall scores) for several power generation systems. Moreover, the risk attitudes of the decision-makers towards a nuclear power plant are incorporated into the point of view for the decision makers (DMs)

  10. COMPARABLE ANALYSIS REGARDING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON MOLDOVA’S WAY TOWARDS EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina GANCIUCOV

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As Moldova has the purpose to enter the European Union the actual situation in the country is analyzed in this article. The article gives the comparative analysis of the basic parameters of Moldova with the other European Union country-members to define the ways of development of the country in the given direction. Since 1994 relations between Moldova and the European Union have developed on an upward trajectory. The dialogue between the two sides officially started that year with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA, which entered into force in 1998 and provided the basis for cooperation with the EU in political, commercial, economic, legal, cultural fields. EU-Moldova relations have advanced to a higher level in 2009 when the country participated in the Eastern Partnership – an instrument of European policy that favored the signing on 29 May 2013 of the Association Agreement, the document which came to replace previous PCA and that is currently the most important element of the legal framework of Moldova-EU dialogue. But beyond the respective treaties signed, individually, between EU and states that intend to join the European community, there are a number of fundamental requirements3 (criteria, which condition the process of European integration of the state with declared intentions of accession. The aim of the research is to analyze to what extent Moldovan economy meet the requirements of economic alignment with EU standards, achieving a comparative analysis of the main relevant macroeconomic indicators. Research methodology. For analysis were used analysis-synthesis method, comparison method and others. Results of the analysis. Part of the criteria analyzed converge with EU requirements, while the most relevant indicators regarding standards of living show reserves show reserves for future improvement, such as the average wage, the lending rate, the exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu against the major international

  11. Simulation process management based on real estate indices of economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.О. Gritsishen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The models accounting of real estate, taking into account the theory of property rights and related changes in the accounting system affect the performance assessment of efficiency of real estate in the enterprise. The above effect is manifested by changing data is the basis for calculation of efficiency of real estate. Specifically undergo change indicators, which is used in calculating the value of information assets and the amount of wear. This changes the values of analytical parameters that can influence management decisions and activities of the company as a whole analyzed existing system of determining the effectiveness of fixed assets, accounting model developed properties that take into account the theory of property rights and related changes which took place in the accounting system affect the performance efficiency assessment of real estate in the construction business.

  12. PCA as a practical indicator of OPLS-DA model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worley, Bradley; Powers, Robert

    Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) are powerful statistical modeling tools that provide insights into separations between experimental groups based on high-dimensional spectral measurements from NMR, MS or other analytical instrumentation. However, when used without validation, these tools may lead investigators to statistically unreliable conclusions. This danger is especially real for Partial Least Squares (PLS) and OPLS, which aggressively force separations between experimental groups. As a result, OPLS-DA is often used as an alternative method when PCA fails to expose group separation, but this practice is highly dangerous. Without rigorous validation, OPLS-DA can easily yield statistically unreliable group separation. A Monte Carlo analysis of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics was performed on NMR datasets with statistically significant separations in scores-space. A linearly increasing amount of Gaussian noise was added to each data matrix followed by the construction and validation of PCA and OPLS-DA models. With increasing added noise, the PCA scores-space distance between groups rapidly decreased and the OPLS-DA cross-validation statistics simultaneously deteriorated. A decrease in correlation between the estimated loadings (added noise) and the true (original) loadings was also observed. While the validity of the OPLS-DA model diminished with increasing added noise, the group separation in scores-space remained basically unaffected. Supported by the results of Monte Carlo analyses of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics, we provide practical guidelines and cross-validatory recommendations for reliable inference from PCA and OPLS-DA models.

  13. Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment Through the Indicators Extracted from Spatial Models: Case Study of Sugarcane Expansion Hotspots in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraz, R. P.; Simoes, M.; Dubreuil, V.

    2012-12-01

    The CanaSat project data from INPE (2010) has evidenced the trend of sugarcane expansion into savanna areas in the Midwest region of Brazil that has a great potential for the sugarcane development, in terms of topography and suitable soils, according to Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (EMBRAPA, 2009). However, in this region the climatic water availability has limitations, once the climate is marked by drought season with a strong water deficiency due to reduction of rainfall (SILVA et al. 2008). There may be serious risks to the sugarcane culture conducted in dryland crop system without any support from additional irrigation. Silva et al. (2008) state that, for the expansion of sugarcane cultivation in the Cerrado region will be necessary supplemental irrigation with 80 to 120 mm of water applied after cutting or planting. In the Brazilian Midwest the sugarcane agroindustry expansion is technically viable, but for the sustainable development of this activity it is necessary an adequate planning based on knowledge about water demand and availability. The aim of this study was to conduct an assessment of the potential water sustainability for the sugarcane cultivation in four microregions in Goiás State, Brazil, through the use of indicators proposed in Indicators System of Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment (Ferraz, 2012), that was thought to subsidize the public policies proposals and sectoral planning in strategic level by means of indicators that enable to perform diagnostic and prognostic analysis. These indicators are direct and relevant indexes obtained from data extracted through geoprocessing techniques from integration of many spatial models. The used indicators were: (i) Three indexes expressing the land favorability for sugarcane development conducted in dryland or irrigation system through the establishment of the ratio between the sugarcane suitable area for each different system and the total area of territorial unit of analysis (micro

  14. Hospital stay as a proxy indicator for severe injury in earthquakes: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lu-Ping; Gerdin, Martin; Westman, Lina; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Wu, Qi; van den Oever, Barbara; Pan, Liang; Albela, Manuel; Chen, Gao; Zhang, De-Sheng; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; von Schreeb, Johan

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes are the most violent type of natural disasters and injuries are the dominant medical problem in the early phases after earthquakes. However, likely because of poor data availability, high-quality research on injuries after earthquakes is lacking. Length of hospital stay (LOS) has been validated as a proxy indicator for injury severity in high-income settings and could potentially be used in retrospective research of injuries after earthquakes. In this study, we assessed LOS as an adequate proxy indicator for severe injury in trauma survivors of an earthquake. A retrospective analysis was conducted using a database of 1,878 injured patients from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Our primary outcome was severe injury, defined as a composite measure of serious injury or resource use. Secondary outcomes were serious injury and resource use, analysed separately. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of LOS when used to identify severe injury. An 0.7earthquake survivors. However, LOS was found to be a proxy for major nonorthopaedic surgery and blood transfusion. These findings can be useful for retrospective research on earthquake-injured patients when detailed hospital records are not available.

  15. Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

    2017-10-01

    Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

  16. Analysis of epidemiological indicators: Bovine brucellosis on the Atlantic coast and Antioquia - Colombia, 2005-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misael Oviedo-Pastrana

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Describe the situation of the bovine brucellosis in the Atlantic Coast and Antioquia (CAA by analysis of epidemiological indicators during 2005-2013. Materials and methods. The data was obtained from epidemiological reports of the Colombian Agricultural Institute and the National Agricultural Census 2014. The annual departmental average of the variables studied was compared and it was performed a temporal analysis through graphical representation. Results. 44% of the positive farms were focused on the CAA; the positivity rate of farms in the CAA (27.9% was higher and statistically significant when related to the average rate in the country (24.8% being promoted by the least producing departments. Regarding to the cattle population, the CAA concentrated 47.0% of positive cattle in the country; however, the bovine positivity rate (5.8% was statistically equal to the national average (5.3%; yet, the departments with lower cattle population had the highest rates. The best surveillance for bovine brucellosis was observed between 2005 and 2009, in contrast, during 2010, 2011 and 2013 there was a considerable reduction in the number of diagnoses, in both farms and cattle. In the least producing departments the temporary distribution of epidemiological indicators favored more the presence of the disease. Conclusions. The National Prevention Control and Eradication Program of Bovine Brucellosis in the CAA presented promising results, however, the lack of continuity in the diagnostic surveillance during some years and mainly in the least producing departments affected negatively their development.

  17. Beyond the model democracy: observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Hanasaki, Naota; Abe, Manabu; Masutomi, Yuji; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Nozawa, Toru

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America (SA) are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for SA, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterised the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in SA. Here we show that, whereas the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of SA, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Naive over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making. Reference: Shiogama, H. et al. Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin. Nature Communications 2:253 doi: 10.1038/ncomms1252 (2011).

  18. Building waste management core indicators through Spatial Material Flow Analysis: net recovery and transport intensity indexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Puig Ventosa, Ignasi; Gabarrell Durany, Xavier

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, the material and spatial characterization of the flows within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system are combined through a Network-Based Spatial Material Flow Analysis. Using this information, two core indicators are developed for the bio-waste fraction, the Net Recovery Index (NRI) and the Transport Intensity Index (TII), which are aimed at assessing progress towards policy-related sustainable MSW management strategies and objectives. The NRI approaches the capacity of a MSW management system for converting waste into resources through a systematic metabolic approach, whereas the TII addresses efficiency in terms of the transport requirements to manage a specific waste flow throughout the entire MSW management life cycle. Therefore, both indicators could be useful in assessing key MSW management policy strategies, such as the consecution of higher recycling levels (sustainability principle) or the minimization of transport by locating treatment facilities closer to generation sources (proximity principle). To apply this methodological approach, the bio-waste management system of the region of Catalonia (Spain) has been chosen as a case study. Results show the adequacy of both indicators for identifying those points within the system with higher capacity to compromise its environmental, economic and social performance and therefore establishing clear targets for policy prioritization. Moreover, this methodological approach permits scenario building, which could be useful in assessing the outcomes of hypothetical scenarios, thus proving its adequacy for strategic planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Competitiveness of Serbia as a tourist destination: Analysis of selected key indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popesku Jovan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the favourable competitiveness position, tourist destination has to offer quality experiences to tourists that can make the destination more attractive compared to other tourist destinations. The role of destination management is to exploit and develop existing resources by using clear and effective strategies for developing tourism products and creating additional value of tourist experience. The first step of analysis is to define destination competitiveness by using the indicators which will review and give the guidelines for improvement of competitive position. This paper discusses the tourist destinations' competitiveness and indicators for its measurement with a special reference to Serbia. Tourism development of Serbia is a big chance for overall economic development of the country. Current competitive position of Serbian tourism on international market is not satisfactory and this paper is trying to analyze and to point out the reasons of Serbia's tourism low competitiveness. Conclusions about the competitive positioning of Serbia as a tourist destination are drawn out firstly based on the relevant studies as well as on the Serbian Tourism Development Strategy. The results of Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (WEF TTCI reports for Serbia are also presented. Based on own research, this paper is also showing the results related to competitiveness of Serbia as a tourist destination in terms of two groups of indicators: natural, cultural and historical resources as well as destination management. According to the results, Serbia is more competitive in its natural, cultural and historical resources comparing to the role of destination management.

  20. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, J.; Francés, F.

    2013-08-01

    Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

  1. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. López

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS. Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

  2. Construction of scientific production indicators based on scientometrics analysis of IPEN dissertations and theses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igami, Mery Piedad Zamudio

    2011-01-01

    Construction of Indicators plays an important role in the contemporaneous society. It could be observed their ordinary use by all the activities segments. In scientific area it is not different; such practice has already been consolidated; this statement could be corroborated by the innumerous papers published about this matter in the main databases; however, there is a prevalence of quantitative studies, which obtain data from the international databases, analyzing journal articles. Concerning this finding, the main objective of this study was to elaborate scientific indicators from a local institutional data base, using as a corpus of the study the dissertations and theses, produced by a graduate program in the period of 1977 to 2009.Three types of two-dimensional indicators were obtained by using bibliometric techniques: numerical, thematic and productivity. For dissertations and theses thematic characterization it was used the Subject categories and scope descriptions and the International Nuclear Information System Thesaurus (INIS). Through the statistical technique of clustering analysis, it was possible to classify them in five main groups, showing former performance and growth future trends of each group; for data extraction about theses productivity, regarding articles published; the Curriculo Lattes, and the local institutional database were used. Co-word analysis technique was used to establish a more precise correlation, between articles and theses, and for this purpose it was used the keywords from a controlled vocabulary. In order to validate the results, it was performed a survey, with the theses authors. Results obtained indicated that 55.9% of the articles published, between 5 years, before and after the thesis presentation, are strongly correlated to it. It was also observed that, correlated articles have been published, in an average of, 1, 63 year before the thesis presentation. Concerning databases, it was shown that they are valuable tools and

  3. OSI Network-layer Abstraction: Analysis of Simulation Dynamics and Performance Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawniczak, Anna T.; Gerisch, Alf; Di Stefano, Bruno

    2005-06-01

    The Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) reference model provides a conceptual framework for communication among computers in a data communication network. The Network Layer of this model is responsible for the routing and forwarding of packets of data. We investigate the OSI Network Layer and develop an abstraction suitable for the study of various network performance indicators, e.g. throughput, average packet delay, average packet speed, average packet path-length, etc. We investigate how the network dynamics and the network performance indicators are affected by various routing algorithms and by the addition of randomly generated links into a regular network connection topology of fixed size. We observe that the network dynamics is not simply the sum of effects resulting from adding individual links to the connection topology but rather is governed nonlinearly by the complex interactions caused by the existence of all randomly added and already existing links in the network. Data for our study was gathered using Netzwerk-1, a C++ simulation tool that we developed for our abstraction.

  4. Flux Balance Analysis Indicates that Methane Is the Lowest Cost Feedstock for Microbial Cell Factories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, Austin D; Long, Matthew R; Reed, Jennifer L; Pfleger, Brian F

    2017-12-01

    The low cost of natural gas has driven significant interest in using C 1 carbon sources (e.g. methane, methanol, CO, syngas) as feedstocks for producing liquid transportation fuels and commodity chemicals. Given the large contribution of sugar and lignocellulosic feedstocks to biorefinery operating costs, natural gas and other C1 sources may provide an economic advantage. To assess the relative costs of these feedstocks, we performed flux balance analysis on genome-scale metabolic models to calculate the maximum theoretical yields of chemical products from methane, methanol, acetate, and glucose. Yield calculations were performed for every metabolite (as a proxy for desired products) in the genome-scale metabolic models of three organisms: Escherichia coli (bacterium), Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast), and Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 (cyanobacterium). The calculated theoretical yields and current feedstock prices provided inputs to create comparative feedstock cost surfaces. Our analysis shows that, at current market prices, methane feedstock costs are consistently lower than glucose when used as a carbon and energy source for microbial chemical production. Conversely, methanol is costlier than glucose under almost all price scenarios. Acetate feedstock costs could be less than glucose given efficient acetate production from low-cost syngas using nascent biological gas to liquids (BIO-GTL) technologies. Our analysis suggests that research should focus on overcoming the technical challenges of methane assimilation and/or yield of acetate via BIO-GTL to take advantage of low-cost natural gas rather than using methanol as a feedstock.

  5. Flux balance analysis indicates that methane is the lowest cost feedstock for microbial cell factories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin D. Comer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The low cost of natural gas has driven significant interest in using C1 carbon sources (e.g. methane, methanol, CO, syngas as feedstocks for producing liquid transportation fuels and commodity chemicals. Given the large contribution of sugar and lignocellulosic feedstocks to biorefinery operating costs, natural gas and other C1 sources may provide an economic advantage. To assess the relative costs of these feedstocks, we performed flux balance analysis on genome-scale metabolic models to calculate the maximum theoretical yields of chemical products from methane, methanol, acetate, and glucose. Yield calculations were performed for every metabolite (as a proxy for desired products in the genome-scale metabolic models of three organisms: Escherichia coli (bacterium, Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast, and Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 (cyanobacterium. The calculated theoretical yields and current feedstock prices provided inputs to create comparative feedstock cost surfaces. Our analysis shows that, at current market prices, methane feedstock costs are consistently lower than glucose when used as a carbon and energy source for microbial chemical production. Conversely, methanol is costlier than glucose under almost all price scenarios. Acetate feedstock costs could be less than glucose given efficient acetate production from low-cost syngas using nascent biological gas to liquids (BIO-GTL technologies. Our analysis suggests that research should focus on overcoming the technical challenges of methane assimilation and/or yield of acetate via BIO-GTL to take advantage of low-cost natural gas rather than using methanol as a feedstock.

  6. Analysis of climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts through relative standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Patricia; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2017-04-01

    Southern Mediterranean basins are prone to droughts, due to the high temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In addition, semiarid Mediterranean regions emerge as noticeable climate change hotspots, with high uncertainty about the impacts of climate change on future droughts. Standardized drought indices have been traditionally used to assess and identify drought events, because of their simplicity and flexibility to compare the departure from normal status across regions at different timescales. Nevertheless, the statistical foundation of these indices assumes stationarity for certain aspects of the cli-matic variables, which could not be longer adopted under climate change. Thus, in recent years several modifications have been proposed in order to cope with these limitations. This contribution provides a framework to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts, considering the predicted shifts in precipitation and temperature and the uncertainty of the assumed distribution parameters. To characterize drought in a climate change context, relative standardized indices instead of the traditional ones are applied: Standardized Precipitation Index (rSPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (rSPEI) and a Standardized Flow Index (rSFI). The behavior of the rSPI versus the multiscalar rSPEI is contrasted. A modification of the Thornthwaite scheme is presented to improve the representation of the intra-annual variation of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) in continental climate areas. The uncertainty due to the selected hydrological model is assessed through the comparison of the performance and outcome of three conceptual lumped-parameter models (Temez, GR2M, and HBV-light). The Temez model was selected to obtain the runoff for the rSFI, given that it showed the best fitting in our case study. To address the uncertainty of the indices distribution parameters, bootstrapping was combined with the computation of the

  7. Criteria and indicators for the assessment of community forestry outcomes: a comparative analysis from Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Sara

    2014-01-01

    In Canada, there are few structured evaluations of community forestry despite more than twenty years of practice. This article presents a criteria and indicator framework, designed to elicit descriptive information about the types of socio-economic results being achieved by community forests in the Canadian context. The criteria and indicators framework draws on themes proposed by other researchers both in the field of community forestry and related areas. The framework is oriented around three concepts described as amongst the underlying objectives of community forestry, namely participatory governance, local economic benefits and multiple forest use. This article also presents the results of a field-based application of the criteria and indicators framework, comparing four case studies in three Canadian provinces. All four are community forests with direct tenure rights to manage and benefit from forestry activities. Results reveal that in terms of governance, the case studies adhere to two different models, which we name 'interest group' vs. 'local government'. Stronger participatory dimensions are evident in two case studies. In the area of local economic benefits, the four case studies perform similarly, with some of the strongest benefits being in employment creation, especially for those case studies that offer non-timber activities such as recreation and education. Two of four cases have clearly adopted a multiple-use approach to management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  9. A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

  10. Correlation analysis between forest carbon stock and spectral vegetation indices in Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, The; Kappas, Martin

    2017-04-01

    In the last several years, the interest in forest biomass and carbon stock estimation has increased due to its importance for forest management, modelling carbon cycle, and other ecosystem services. However, no estimates of biomass and carbon stocks of deferent forest cover types exist throughout in the Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam. This study investigates the relationship between above ground carbon stock and different vegetation indices and to identify the most likely vegetation index that best correlate with forest carbon stock. The terrestrial inventory data come from 380 sample plots that were randomly sampled. Individual tree parameters such as DBH and tree height were collected to calculate the above ground volume, biomass and carbon for different forest types. The SPOT6 2013 satellite data was used in the study to obtain five vegetation indices NDVI, RDVI, MSR, RVI, and EVI. The relationships between the forest carbon stock and vegetation indices were investigated using a multiple linear regression analysis. R-square, RMSE values and cross-validation were used to measure the strength and validate the performance of the models. The methodology presented here demonstrates the possibility of estimating forest volume, biomass and carbon stock. It can also be further improved by addressing more spectral bands data and/or elevation.

  11. Building waste management core indicators through Spatial Material Flow Analysis: Net recovery and transport intensity indexes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Font Vivanco, David, E-mail: font@cml.leidenuniv.nl [Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Puig Ventosa, Ignasi [ENT Environment and Management, Carrer Sant Joan 39, First Floor, 08800 Vilanova i la Geltru, Barcelona (Spain); Gabarrell Durany, Xavier [Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sustainability and proximity principles have a key role in waste management. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Core indicators are needed in order to quantify and evaluate them. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A systematic, step-by-step approach is developed in this study for their development. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Transport may play a significant role in terms of environmental and economic costs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Policy action is required in order to advance in the consecution of these principles. - Abstract: In this paper, the material and spatial characterization of the flows within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system are combined through a Network-Based Spatial Material Flow Analysis. Using this information, two core indicators are developed for the bio-waste fraction, the Net Recovery Index (NRI) and the Transport Intensity Index (TII), which are aimed at assessing progress towards policy-related sustainable MSW management strategies and objectives. The NRI approaches the capacity of a MSW management system for converting waste into resources through a systematic metabolic approach, whereas the TII addresses efficiency in terms of the transport requirements to manage a specific waste flow throughout the entire MSW management life cycle. Therefore, both indicators could be useful in assessing key MSW management policy strategies, such as the consecution of higher recycling levels (sustainability principle) or the minimization of transport by locating treatment facilities closer to generation sources (proximity principle). To apply this methodological approach, the bio-waste management system of the region of Catalonia (Spain) has been chosen as a case study. Results show the adequacy of both indicators for identifying those points within the system with higher capacity to compromise its environmental, economic and social performance and therefore establishing clear targets for policy

  12. Building waste management core indicators through Spatial Material Flow Analysis: Net recovery and transport intensity indexes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Font Vivanco, David; Puig Ventosa, Ignasi; Gabarrell Durany, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Sustainability and proximity principles have a key role in waste management. ► Core indicators are needed in order to quantify and evaluate them. ► A systematic, step-by-step approach is developed in this study for their development. ► Transport may play a significant role in terms of environmental and economic costs. ► Policy action is required in order to advance in the consecution of these principles. - Abstract: In this paper, the material and spatial characterization of the flows within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system are combined through a Network-Based Spatial Material Flow Analysis. Using this information, two core indicators are developed for the bio-waste fraction, the Net Recovery Index (NRI) and the Transport Intensity Index (TII), which are aimed at assessing progress towards policy-related sustainable MSW management strategies and objectives. The NRI approaches the capacity of a MSW management system for converting waste into resources through a systematic metabolic approach, whereas the TII addresses efficiency in terms of the transport requirements to manage a specific waste flow throughout the entire MSW management life cycle. Therefore, both indicators could be useful in assessing key MSW management policy strategies, such as the consecution of higher recycling levels (sustainability principle) or the minimization of transport by locating treatment facilities closer to generation sources (proximity principle). To apply this methodological approach, the bio-waste management system of the region of Catalonia (Spain) has been chosen as a case study. Results show the adequacy of both indicators for identifying those points within the system with higher capacity to compromise its environmental, economic and social performance and therefore establishing clear targets for policy prioritization. Moreover, this methodological approach permits scenario building, which could be useful in assessing the outcomes of

  13. Kernel density surface modelling as a means to identify significant concentrations of vulnerable marine ecosystem indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Kenchington

    Full Text Available The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105, concerning sustainable fisheries in the marine ecosystem, calls for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VME from destructive fishing practices. Subsequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO produced guidelines for identification of VME indicator species/taxa to assist in the implementation of the resolution, but recommended the development of case-specific operational definitions for their application. We applied kernel density estimation (KDE to research vessel trawl survey data from inside the fishing footprint of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO Regulatory Area in the high seas of the northwest Atlantic to create biomass density surfaces for four VME indicator taxa: large-sized sponges, sea pens, small and large gorgonian corals. These VME indicator taxa were identified previously by NAFO using the fragility, life history characteristics and structural complexity criteria presented by FAO, along with an evaluation of their recovery trajectories. KDE, a non-parametric neighbour-based smoothing function, has been used previously in ecology to identify hotspots, that is, areas of relatively high biomass/abundance. We present a novel approach of examining relative changes in area under polygons created from encircling successive biomass categories on the KDE surface to identify "significant concentrations" of biomass, which we equate to VMEs. This allows identification of the VMEs from the broader distribution of the species in the study area. We provide independent assessments of the VMEs so identified using underwater images, benthic sampling with other gear types (dredges, cores, and/or published species distribution models of probability of occurrence, as available. For each VME indicator taxon we provide a brief review of their ecological function which will be important in future assessments of significant adverse impact on these habitats here

  14. Hydrological modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria in a tropical mountain catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Ribolzi, Olivier

    2017-08-01

    The occurrence of pathogen bacteria in surface waters is a threat to public health worldwide. In particular, inadequate sanitation resulting in high contamination of surface water with pathogens of fecal origin is a serious issue in developing countries such as Lao P.D.R. Despite the health implications of the consumption of contaminated surface water, the environmental fate and transport of pathogens of fecal origin and their indicators (Fecal Indicator Bacteria or FIB) are still poorly known in tropical areas. In this study, we used measurements of flow rates, suspended sediments and of the FIB Escherichia coli (E. coli) in a 60-ha catchment in Northern Laos to explore the ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed-scale FIB fate and transport. We assessed the influences of 3 in-stream processes, namely bacteria deposition and resuspension, bacterial regrowth, and hyporheic exchange (i.e. transient storage) on predicted FIB numbers. We showed that the SWAT model in its original version does not correctly simulate small E. coli numbers during the dry season. We showed that model's performance could be improved when considering the release of E. coli together with sediment resuspension. We demonstrated that the hyporheic exchange of bacteria across the Sediment-Water Interface (SWI) should be considered when simulating FIB concentration not only during wet weather, but also during the dry season, or baseflow period. In contrast, the implementation of the regrowth process did not improve the model during the dry season without inducing an overestimation during the wet season. This work thus underlines the importance of taking into account in-stream processes, such as deposition and resuspension, regrowth and hyporheic exchange, when using SWAT to simulate FIB dynamics in surface waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

  16. Basal plasma insulin and homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) are indicators of insulin sensitivity in cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleton, D J; Rand, J S; Sunvold, G D

    2005-06-01

    The objective of this study was to compare simpler indices of insulin sensitivity with the minimal model-derived insulin sensitivity index to identify a simple and reliable alternative method for assessing insulin sensitivity in cats. In addition, we aimed to determine whether this simpler measure or measures showed consistency of association across differing body weights and glucose tolerance levels. Data from glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity tests performed in 32 cats with varying body weights (underweight to obese), including seven cats with impaired glucose tolerance, were used to assess the relationship between Bergman's minimal model-derived insulin sensitivity index (S(I)), and various simpler measures of insulin sensitivity. The most useful overall predictors of insulin sensitivity were basal plasma insulin concentrations and the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), which is the product of basal glucose and insulin concentrations divided by 22.5. It is concluded that measurement of plasma insulin concentrations in cats with food withheld for 24 h, in conjunction with HOMA, could be used in clinical research projects and by practicing veterinarians to screen for reduced insulin sensitivity in cats. Such cats may be at increased risk of developing impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Early detection of these cats would enable preventative intervention programs such as weight reduction, increased physical activity and dietary modifications to be instigated.

  17. N = 1 supersymmetric indices and the four-dimensional A-model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closset, Cyril; Kim, Heeyeon; Willett, Brian

    2017-08-01

    We compute the supersymmetric partition function of N = 1 supersymmetric gauge theories with an R-symmetry on M_4\\cong M_{g,p}× {S}^1 , a principal elliptic fiber bundle of degree p over a genus- g Riemann surface, Σ g . Equivalently, we compute the generalized supersymmetric index I_{M}{_{g,p}, with the supersymmetric three-manifold M_{g,p} as the spatial slice. The ordinary N = 1 supersymmetric index on the round three-sphere is recovered as a special case. We approach this computation from the point of view of a topological A-model for the abelianized gauge fields on the base Σ g . This A-model — or A-twisted two-dimensional N = (2 , 2) gauge theory — encodes all the information about the generalized indices, which are viewed as expectations values of some canonically-defined surface defects wrapped on T 2 inside Σ g × T 2. Being defined by compactification on the torus, the A-model also enjoys natural modular properties, governed by the four-dimensional 't Hooft anomalies. As an application of our results, we provide new tests of Seiberg duality. We also present a new evaluation formula for the three-sphere index as a sum over two-dimensional vacua.

  18. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  19. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  20. Comparison of Enzymes / Non-Enzymes Proteins Classification Models Based on 3D, Composition, Sequences and Topological Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Munteanu, Cristian Robert

    2014-01-01

    Comparison of Enzymes / Non-Enzymes Proteins Classification Models Based on 3D, Composition, Sequences and Topological Indices, German Conference on Bioinformatics (GCB), Potsdam, Germany (September, 2007)

  1. Gentrification and models for real estate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Brusa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This research propose a deep analysis of Milanese real estate market, based on data supplied by three real estate organizations; gentrification appears in some neighborhoods, such as Tortona, Porta Genova, Bovisa, Isola Garibaldi: the latest is the subject of the final analysis, by surveying of physical and social state of the area. The survey takes place in two periods (2003 and 2009 to compare the evolution of gentrification. The results of surveys has been employed in a simulation by multi-agent system model, to foresee long term evolution of the phenomenon. These neighborhood micro-indicators allow to put in evidence actual trends, conditioning a local real estate market, which can translate themselves in phenomena such as gentrification. In present analysis, the employ of cellular automata models applied to a neighborhood in Milan (Isola Garibaldi produced the dynamic simulation of gentrification trend during a very long time: the cyclical phenomenon (one loop holds a period of twenty – thirty years appears sometimes during a theoretical time of 100 – 120 – 150 years. Simulation of long period scenarios by multi-agent systems and cellular automata provides estimator with powerful tool, without limits in implementing it, able to support him in appraisal judge. It stands also to reason that such a tool can sustain urban planning and related evaluation processes.

  2. Analysis of the indices of thermal comfort for the conditions of the Mexican Republic; Analisis de los indices de confort termico para las condiciones de la republica mexicana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuentes Freixanet, Victor; Rodriguez Viqueira, Manuel [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Unidad Azcapotzalco (Mexico)

    2009-07-15

    The objective of this article is to analyze different indices of thermal comfort for the Mexican Republic. Among them the Fanger (PMV and PPD) physiological methods of comfort and the new effective temperature index are included. The standard effective temperature (SET), as well as the adaptive methods of Humphreys and Nicol, Auliciems, De Dear and Brager. A comparative analysis is done of the different indices through thematic maps determined by interpolation, using a climatic data base of 700 cities obtained from the observatories and stations of the National Meteorological Service. This article pretends to establish general criteria of the thermal comfort to later define design strategies for each one of the climatic regions of the Mexican Republic. [Spanish] El objetivo de este articulo es analizar distintos indices de confort termico para la Republica Mexicana. Entre ellos se incluyen los metodos fisiologicos de confort de Fanger (PMV y PPD), el indice de nueva temperatura efectiva. La temperatura efectiva estandar (SET), asi como los metodos adaptativos de Humphreys y Nicol, Auliciems, De Dear y Brager. Se hace un analisis comparativo de los distintos indices a traves de mapas tematicos determinados por interpolacion, usando una base de datos climaticos de 700 ciudades obtenidos de los observatorios y estaciones del Servicio Meteorologico Nacional. Este articulo presenta establecer criterios generales del confort termico para posteriormente definir estrategias de diseno para cada una de las regiones climaticas de la Republica Mexicana.

  3. Dynamic modelling and analysis of space webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yang; Baoyin, HeXi; Li, JunFeng

    2011-04-01

    Future space missions demand operations on large flexible structures, for example, space webs, the lightweight cable nets deployable in space, which can serve as platforms for very large structures or be used to capture orbital objects. The interest in research on space webs is likely to increase in the future with the development of promising applications such as Furoshiki sat-ellite of JAXA, Robotic Geostationary Orbit Restorer (ROGER) of ESA and Grapple, Retrieve And Secure Payload (GRASP) of NASA. Unlike high-tensioned nets in civil engineering, space webs may be low-tensioned or tensionless, and extremely flexible, owing to the microgravity in the orbit and the lack of support components, which may cause computational difficulties. Mathematical models are necessary in the analysis of space webs, especially in the conceptual design and evaluation for prototypes. A full three-dimensional finite element (FE) model was developed in this work. Trivial truss elements were adopted to reduce the computational complexity. Considering cable is a compression-free material and its tensile stiffness is also variable, we introduced the cable material constitutive relationship to work out an accurate and feasible model for prototype analysis and design. In the static analysis, the stress distribution and global deformation of the webs were discussed to get access to the knowledge of strength of webs with different types of meshes. In the dynamic analysis, special attention was paid to the impact problem. The max stress and global deformation were investigated. The simulation results indicate the interesting phenomenon which may be worth further research.

  4. Data warehouse model for monitoring key performance indicators (KPIs) using goal oriented approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Mohammed Thajeel; Ta'a, Azman; Bakar, Muhamad Shahbani Abu

    2016-08-01

    The growth and development of universities, just as other organizations, depend on their abilities to strategically plan and implement development blueprints which are in line with their vision and mission statements. The actualizations of these statements, which are often designed into goals and sub-goals and linked to their respective actors are better measured by defining key performance indicators (KPIs) of the university. The proposes ReGADaK, which is an extended the GRAnD approach highlights the facts, dimensions, attributes, measures and KPIs of the organization. The measures from the goal analysis of this unit serve as the basis of developing the related university's KPIs. The proposed data warehouse schema is evaluated through expert review, prototyping and usability evaluation. The findings from the evaluation processes suggest that the proposed data warehouse schema is suitable for monitoring the University's KPIs.

  5. New analysis indicates no thermal inversion in the atmosphere of HD 209458b

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond-Lowe, Hannah; Stevenson, Kevin B.; Bean, Jacob L.; Line, Michael R.; Fortney, Jonathan J.

    2014-01-01

    An important focus of exoplanet research is the determination of the atmospheric temperature structure of strongly irradiated gas giant planets, or hot Jupiters. HD 209458b is the prototypical exoplanet for atmospheric thermal inversions, but this assertion does not take into account recently obtained data or newer data reduction techniques. We reexamine this claim by investigating all publicly available Spitzer Space Telescope secondary-eclipse photometric data of HD 209458b and performing a self-consistent analysis. We employ data reduction techniques that minimize stellar centroid variations, apply sophisticated models to known Spitzer systematics, and account for time-correlated noise in the data. We derive new secondary-eclipse depths of 0.119% ± 0.007%, 0.123% ± 0.006%, 0.134% ± 0.035%, and 0.215% ± 0.008% in the 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 μm bandpasses, respectively. We feed these results into a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval analysis and determine that it is unnecessary to invoke a thermal inversion to explain our secondary-eclipse depths. The data are well fitted by a temperature model that decreases monotonically between pressure levels of 1 and 0.01 bars. We conclude that there is no evidence for a thermal inversion in the atmosphere of HD 209458b.

  6. Hair analysis for opiates: hydromorphone and hydrocodone as indicators of heroin use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madry, Milena M; Bosshard, Mona M; Kraemer, Thomas; Baumgartner, Markus R

    2016-05-01

    Identification of external contamination is a challenge in hair analysis. This study investigates metabolite ratios of hydromorphone to morphine and hydrocodone to codeine as indicators to distinguish contamination from heroin use provided that hydromorphone/hydrocodone intake is excluded. Hair samples after external contamination with street heroin proved to be negative for hydromorphone/hydrocodone. Hair samples from individuals with suspected street heroin use/contamination or opiate medication were analyzed for 6-monoacetylmorphine, morphine, acetylcodeine, codeine, hydromorphone and hydrocodone, and metabolite ratios of hydromorphone to morphine and hydrocodone to codeine were assessed. Hair samples from individuals with medicinal heroin/morphine/codeine use displayed significantly higher metabolite ratios than those with suspected street heroin use/contamination. Hydromorphone/hydrocodone are solely formed during body passage. Thus, metabolite ratios can be used to distinguish morphine/heroin use from external contamination.

  7. The effect of measurement quality on targeted structural model fit indices: A comment on Lance, Beck, Fan, and Carter (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Hancock, Gregory R

    2018-03-01

    Lance, Beck, Fan, and Carter (2016) recently advanced 6 new fit indices and associated cutoff values for assessing data-model fit in the structural portion of traditional latent variable path models. The authors appropriately argued that, although most researchers' theoretical interest rests with the latent structure, they still rely on indices of global model fit that simultaneously assess both the measurement and structural portions of the model. As such, Lance et al. proposed indices intended to assess the structural portion of the model in isolation of the measurement model. Unfortunately, although these strategies separate the assessment of the structure from the fit of the measurement model, they do not isolate the structure's assessment from the quality of the measurement model. That is, even with a perfectly fitting measurement model, poorer quality (i.e., less reliable) measurements will yield a more favorable verdict regarding structural fit, whereas better quality (i.e., more reliable) measurements will yield a less favorable structural assessment. This phenomenon, referred to by Hancock and Mueller (2011) as the reliability paradox, affects not only traditional global fit indices but also those structural indices proposed by Lance et al. as well. Fortunately, as this comment will clarify, indices proposed by Hancock and Mueller help to mitigate this problem and allow the structural portion of the model to be assessed independently of both the fit of the measurement model as well as the quality of indicator variables contained therein. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Metal ion site engineering indicates a global toggle switch model for seven-transmembrane receptor activation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elling, Christian E; Frimurer, Thomas M; Gerlach, Lars-Ole

    2006-01-01

    Much evidence indicates that, during activation of seven-transmembrane (7TM) receptors, the intracellular segments of the transmembrane helices (TMs) move apart with large amplitude, rigid body movements of especially TM-VI and TM-VII. In this study, AspIII:08 (Asp113), the anchor point...... in sites constructed between positions III:08 (Asp or His), VI:16 (preferentially Cys), and/or VII:06 (preferentially Cys). In molecular models built over the backbone conformation of the inactive rhodopsin structure, the heavy atoms that coordinate the metal ion were located too far away from each other...... ion sites, we propose a global toggle switch mechanism for 7TM receptor activation in which inward movement of the extracellular segments of especially TM-VI and, to some extent, TM-VII is coupled to the well established outward movement of the intracellular segments of these helices. We suggest...

  9. Suicidality and divalproex sodium: analysis of controlled studies in multiple indications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacs Xenia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent analyses of antiepileptic drugs have indicated an increase in the risk of suicidality. The objective of this report was to provide clinical information and an independent meta-analysis of divalproex sodium and suicidality events by analyzing data from 13 placebo-controlled studies and 1 low-dose controlled study. Methods Adverse events considered to be possibly suicide related were identified using the Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment (C-CASA methodology. Indications included epilepsy, bipolar disorder, migraine prophylaxis, impulsive aggression, and dementia. Narratives were produced for every event, and suicidality event ratings were performed by a third party blinded to treatment assignment. Statistical analyses were conducted using methodology similar to that reported by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA. Results Suicidality events were identified in 5 of the 13 placebo-controlled studies. Of the 1,327 (0.83% subjects taking divalproex sodium, 11 had suicidality events: 2 suicide attempts and 9 suicidal ideation. Of 992 (0.91% subjects taking placebo, 9 had suicidality events: 1 preparatory act toward suicide, 2 suicide attempts, and 6 suicidal ideation. Across placebo-controlled studies, the overall estimated odds ratio (OR of suicidal behavior or ideation was 0.72 (95% CI 0.29 to 1.84. The OR for suicidal behavior was 0.37 (95% CI 0.04 to 2.58, and the OR for suicidal ideation was 0.90 (95% CI 0.31 to 2.79. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, divalproex sodium does not appear to increase the risk of suicide-related adverse events relative to placebo in the populations studied. Clinicians should nonetheless remain vigilant in assessing suicidality, not only in patients treated for mental disorders with inherently high suicide risk, but also in patients taking antiepileptic medications.

  10. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all. PMID:20849605

  11. Exploratory analysis of user-generated photos and indicators that influence their appeal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urban Sedlar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze if simple indicators related to photo quality (brightness, sharpness, color palette and established content detection techniques (face detection can predict the success of photos in obtaining more “likes” from other users of photo-sharing social networks. This provides a unique look into the habits of users of such networks. The analysis was performed on 394.000 images downloaded from the social photo-sharing site Instagram, paired with a de-identified dataset of user liking activity, provided by a seller of a social-media mobile app. Two user groups were analyzed: all users in a two month period (N = 122.260 and a highly selective group (N = 3.982 of users that only like <10% of what they view. No correlation was found with any of the indicators using the whole (non-selective population, likely due to their bias towards earning virtual currency in exchange for liking. However, in selective group, small positive correlation was found between like ratio and image sharpness (r=0.09, p<0.0001 and small negative correlation between like ratio and the number of faces (r=-0.10, p<0.0001.

  12. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of financial market efficiency: Comparison using Dow Jones sector ETF indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2017-10-01

    This study challenges the efficient market hypothesis, relying on the Dow Jones sector Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) indices. For this purpose, we use the generalized Hurst exponent and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) methods, using daily data over the timespan from 2000 to 2015. We compare the sector ETF indices in terms of market efficiency between short- and long-run horizons, small and large fluctuations, and before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, there is clear evidence that the sector ETF markets are multifractal in nature. We also find a crossover in the multifractality of sector ETF market dynamics. Second, the utilities and consumer goods sector ETF markets are more efficient compared with the financial and telecommunications sector ETF markets, in terms of price prediction. Third, there are noteworthy discrepancies in terms of market efficiency, between the short- and long-term horizons. Fourth, the ETF market efficiency is considerably diminished after the global financial crisis.

  13. ANALYSIS OF OPERATING PARAMETERS AND INDICATORS OF A COMPRESSION IGNITION ENGINE FUELLED WITH LPG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof GARBALA

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the possibilities for using alternative fuels to power vehicles equipped with compression ignition (CI engines (diesel. Systems for using such fuels have been discussed. Detailed analysis and research covered the LPG STAG autogas system, which is used to power dual-fuel engine units (LPG+diesel. A description of the operation of the autogas system and installation in a vehicle has been presented. The basic algorithms of the controller, which is an actuating element of the whole system, have been discussed. Protection systems of a serial production engine unit to guarantee its factorycontrolled durability standards have been presented. A long-distance test drive and examinations of the engine over 150,000 km in a Toyota Hilux have been performed. Operating parameters and performance indicators of the engine with STAG LPG+diesel fuelling have been verified. Directions and perspectives for the further development of such a system in diesel-powered cars have been also indicated.

  14. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  15. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  16. Quality management indicators for tissue banks: an operative model from the period of 2002-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldías, M; Alvarez, I; Pérez Campos, H; Sánchez, G; Acosta, M

    2009-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine a specific indicator model to evaluate the Quality Management System (QMS) in Tissue Banks (TB) for deceased and/or live donors. Quantitative Indicators for Quality Management are considered for deceased donors as the origin of therapeutic tissues. A glossary of definitions was established (also applicable for tissues from live donors): Deceased Therapeutic Real Donors (DTRD), donors that were processed and at least 1 tissue was harvested for a therapeutic purpose; Deceased Effective Donors (DED), DTRD in which 1 or more tissues were validated, stored, and/or grafted; Processed Tissues (PT), number of tissues harvested from a DTRD, which were processed and counted as final product units; Validated Tissues (VT), number of tissues as final product units, which fulfilled quality criteria to be grafted; Grafted Tissues (GT), number of transplanted tissues for therapeutic purposes; and Grafted Patients (GP), number of patients who were grafted with validated tissues. MANAGEMENT QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS: Deceased donors were considered from 2002 to 2007. The total number of tissues was 15,363: Productivity Index (PI), PI = DED/DTRD; Processing Quality Rate (PQR), PQR = VT/PT%; Productivity Efficiency per Donor (PED), PED = VT/DED; Grafted Tissues Coefficient (GTC), GTC = GT/VT; and Grafted Patients Index per Donor (GID), GID = GP/DED. Results were as follows: PI = 0.80; PQR = 76%; PED = 30.99; GTC = 0.93; and GID = 4. In our study, 80% of DTRD produced VT (PI = 0.80), which represented 76% of PT (average, 31 final products per donor). Also, 93% of the VT were grafted with 5 patients grafted per donor. Defined variables resulted in useful tools to evaluate QMS in a TB.

  17. Stress and transtheoretical model indicators of stress management behaviors in HIV-positive women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Tracy A; Fava, Joseph L

    2003-03-01

    Women are particularly prone to stress with respect to living with HIV. Stress management behaviors can mediate the stress response and improve health outcomes in HIV-positive individuals. The purpose of this descriptive cross-sectional study was to examine stress and Transtheoretical Model (TTM) indicators of stress management behaviors in HIV-positive women. 126 HIV-positive women recruited from diverse HIV-care clinics in northeast Ohio completed standardized self-report research instruments to measure stress, stress management behaviors, stage of change, self-efficacy, and decisional balance (pros and cons). Women reported higher levels of stress in the later phase of HIV infection (Pstressed women in this study reported infrequently using stress management behaviors and a low level of perceived efficacy to manage stress although they perceived the pros of managing stress to be high (PStress management behaviors were significantly related to stage of change (Pmanaging stress (Pstress management behavior were atypical in this sample. Clinicians and researchers can use the TTM to describe behavioral indicators of stress management in HIV+ women. However, further research is needed to more fully understand behavioral processes HIV+ women can use to adopt and maintain stress management behaviors.

  18. A business model for managing system change through strategic financing and performance indicators: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Mary I; Milch, Heidi; Curtis, Peter; Endress, Phillip

    2012-06-01

    This article describes how a system of care operated by a county government agency used a fiscal crisis as the opportunity to reform its children's system. A cross-system response to the crisis is outlined that includes a system of care framework coupled with a business model, inter-departmental collaboration and leadership, the use of strategic reinvestment strategies, and a quality improvement system that focuses on key indicators. Implementation of the system change is described with a specific focus on cross-system entry points, financing strategies that re-allocate funds from deep-end programs to community-based services, and management oversight through the use of performance indicators to monitor and support effectiveness. This article examines the results of the system change, including the diversion of youth from system penetration, the reduction in residential treatment bed days, the re-allocation of these savings to community-based services, and the outcomes of children who were diverted from residential care and served in the community. The article offers a number of recommendations for other communities contemplating system change.

  19. How to use composite indicator and linear programming model for determine sustainable tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaabadi, Maryam; Malakootian, Mohammad; Zare Mehrjerdi, Mohammad Reza; Jalaee, Seied Abdolmajid; Mehrabi Boshrabadi, Hosein

    2017-01-01

    The tourism industry which is one of the most dynamic economic activities in today's world plays a significant role in the sustainable development. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to tourism, sustainable tourism must be taken into huge account; otherwise, the environment and its health will be damaged irreparably. To determine the level of sustainability in this study, indicators of sustainable tourism were first presented in three environmental health, economic and social aspects. Then, the levels of sustainable tourism and environmental sustainability were practically measured in different cities of Kerman Province using a composite indicator, a linear programming model, Delphi method and the questionnaire technique. Finally, the study cities (tourist attractions) were ranked. Result of this study showed that unfortunately the tourism opportunities were not used appropriately in these cities and tourist destinations, and that environmental aspect (health and environmental sustainability) had very bad situations compared to social and economic aspects. In other words, environmental health had the lowest levels of sustainability. The environment is a place for all human activities like tourism, social and economic issues; therefore, its stability and health is of great importance. Thus, it is necessary to pay more attention to sustainability of activities, management and environmental health in planning sustainable development in regional and national policy.

  20. Cognitive indicators of social anxiety in youth: a structural equation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudy, Brittany M; Davis, Thompson E; Matthews, Russell A

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated significant relationships among various cognitive variables such as negative cognition, self-efficacy, and social anxiety. Unfortunately, few studies focus on the role of cognition among youth, and researchers often fail to use domain-specific measures when examining cognitive variables. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine domain-specific cognitive variables (i.e., socially oriented negative self-referent cognition and social self-efficacy) and their relationships to social anxiety in children and adolescents using structural equation modeling techniques. A community sample of children and adolescents (n=245; 55.9% female; 83.3% Caucasian, 9.4% African American, 2% Asian, 2% Hispanic, 2% "other," and 1.2% not reported) completed questionnaires assessing social cognition and social anxiety symptomology. Three latent variables were created to examine the constructs of socially oriented negative self-referent cognition (as measured by the SONAS scale), social self-efficacy (as measured by the SEQSS-C), and social anxiety (as measured by the SPAI-C and the Brief SA). The resulting measurement model of latent variables fit the data well. Additionally, consistent with the study hypothesis, results indicated that social self-efficacy likely mediates the relationship between socially oriented negative self-referent cognition and social anxiety, and socially oriented negative self-referent cognition yields significant direct and indirect effects on social anxiety. These findings indicate that socially oriented negative cognitions are associated with youth's beliefs about social abilities and the experience of social anxiety. Future directions for research and study limitations, including use of cross-sectional data, are discussed. © 2013.

  1. Global Indicators Analysis and Consultancy Experience Insights into Correlation between Entrepreneurial Activities and Business Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovan Krivokapić

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Many researches and practical experiences clearly indicate the existence of a strong relationship between entrepreneurial activities and the business environment in which these activities are initiated. Although this topic has been quite ignored until the late twentieth century, a lot of studies and consulting practice have contributed to the fact that there are now a number of theories concerning mentioned correlation. These theories aim to offer a model that would provide better utilization of the possibilities from the business environment which could be very important for the development from both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects. An increasing number of articles on this topic says enough about its importance, and numerous researches by many reputable globally recognized institutions go in favor of this claim. There are many indicators that observe the economic situation in a country or a region from different aspects, so the analyses of these indicators make it possible to determine the specific relationships between entrepreneurial activities and the local and the global business environment. Given the complexity of these relations, the impact cannot be observed partially, without taking into consideration other important factors, but more detailed analyses, however, result in some useful conclusions, which in the proper context can have a positive impact on many economic factors. It is very important to emphasize the fact that the correlation between the business environment and entrepreneurial activities is bidirectional, since this influence is mutual, so that changes in one of these factors can and usually cause some modifications in the other. Frequent series of such iterations actually lead to changes in the business environment, while entrepreneurial activity changes its shape and affects the economy of a country or a region, which is of particular importance for its competitiveness in the era of globalization.

  2. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  3. Word maturity indices with latent semantic analysis: why, when, and where is Procrustes rotation applied?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorge-Botana, Guillermo; Olmos, Ricardo; Luzón, José M

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe and explain one useful computational methodology to model the semantic development of word representation: Word maturity. In particular, the methodology is based on the longitudinal word monitoring created by Kirylev and Landauer using latent semantic analysis for the representation of lexical units. The paper is divided into two parts. First, the steps required to model the development of the meaning of words are explained in detail. We describe the technical and theoretical aspects of each step. Second, we provide a simple example of application of this methodology with some simple tools that can be used by applied researchers. This paper can serve as a user-friendly guide for researchers interested in modeling changes in the semantic representations of words. Some current aspects of the technique and future directions are also discussed. WIREs Cogn Sci 2018, 9:e1457. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1457 This article is categorized under: Computer Science > Natural Language Processing Linguistics > Language Acquisition Psychology > Development and Aging. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A cluster analysis study based on profitability and financial indicators in the Italian gas retail market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capece, Guendalina; Di Pillo, Francesca; Levialdi, Nathan [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Impresa, Universita di Roma ' Tor Vergata' , Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Roma (Italy); Cricelli, Livio [Dipartimento di Meccanica, Strutture, Ambiente e Territorio, Universita di Cassino, Via G. Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino (Italy)

    2010-07-15

    In the European Union, the natural gas market is increasingly being liberalized. The liberalization process is aimed at leading to lower prices and higher volumes, and hence higher consumer welfare. This paper focuses on the changes in performance in the natural gas retail market by analyzing the profit and financial position of the companies concerned over the first three years following the market liberalization. The balance sheets of 105 Italian companies in this sector are analyzed, after which a cluster analysis is performed employing the most significant performance indexes. The companies are then analyzed within each cluster with respect to age, size, geographical location and business diversification. The results of our analysis show that the majority of companies attained a high level of performance, although this positive outcome was mitigated by the gradual decrease of the average values of performance indicators during the period concerned. The companies that achieve the best performances belong to longstanding business groups, are medium-large sized and are located in the north of the country. Regarding business diversification, in the first two years, the specialised companies outperformed the diversified companies. (author)

  5. Concepts of a software based maintenance efficiency analysis using performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, C.; Boeck, H.

    1992-01-01

    The paper briefly summarizes the concepts of a customized computer program in STATGRAPHICS called ''maintenance efficiency analysis (MEA) for safety related systems in nuclear power plants'', which has been developed and submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the form of a research contract. The purpose of this program is to process data from a real plant utilizing advanced statistical procedures (non-parametric methods, multivariate analysis) in order to test several hypotheses related to risk related safety indicators. Plant specific equipment history and maintenance work order data can be analysed by using various statistical procedures in order to be able to estimate safety system related equipment and maintenance process trends. The main results of such an MEA case study are the normalized and scaled trends in the (in)effectiveness of the performance of selected ''important'' safety related systems and their dominant components as well as the detection of the dominant maintenance related causes of their bad (good) equipment performance. (author). 6 refs, 4 figs

  6. A cluster analysis study based on profitability and financial indicators in the Italian gas retail market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capece, Guendalina; Di Pillo, Francesca; Levialdi, Nathan; Cricelli, Livio

    2010-01-01

    In the European Union, the natural gas market is increasingly being liberalized. The liberalization process is aimed at leading to lower prices and higher volumes, and hence higher consumer welfare. This paper focuses on the changes in performance in the natural gas retail market by analyzing the profit and financial position of the companies concerned over the first three years following the market liberalization. The balance sheets of 105 Italian companies in this sector are analyzed, after which a cluster analysis is performed employing the most significant performance indexes. The companies are then analyzed within each cluster with respect to age, size, geographical location and business diversification. The results of our analysis show that the majority of companies attained a high level of performance, although this positive outcome was mitigated by the gradual decrease of the average values of performance indicators during the period concerned. The companies that achieve the best performances belong to longstanding business groups, are medium-large sized and are located in the north of the country. Regarding business diversification, in the first two years, the specialised companies outperformed the diversified companies. (author)

  7. A Comparative Analysis of Task Modeling Notations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Vanderdonckt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Entender la forma de cómo realizar el trabajo en las organizaciones es parte importante para alcanzar los objetivos, los modelos de tareas ayudan a realizar esta tarea. Estos modelos son la intersección entre el diseño de la interfaz de usuario y enfoques sistemáticos. Existen diferentes niveles de abstracción para representar un modelo de tarea. Cuando los diseñadores requieren sólo especificar los requisitos con respecto a cómo las actividades se deben realizar, consideran sólo las tareas de alto nivel. Por otro lado, cuando los diseñadores tienen por objeto proporcionar indicaciones precisas entonces las actividades están representadas con mayor granularidad, incluidos los aspectos relacionados con el modelo de diálogo de una interfaz de usuario (que define cómo las acciones del sistema y el usuario pueden ser secuenciados. En este artículo se presenta un análisis comparativo de modelos de tareas con el fin de identificar conceptos comunes. Este análisis comparativo se basa en tres criterios: información, la cobertura conceptual y expresividad. La fusión de los resultados derivó en un meta-modelo robusto que cubre la mayoría de las situaciones concernientes al modelado de tareas, incluyendo: la interacción de varios usuarios, los sistemas de información, el flujo de trabajo, y CSCW.Task Models describe how to perform activities to reach users' goals. Task models represent the intersection between user interface design and more systematic approaches. Task models can be represented at various abstraction levels. When designers want to specify only requirements regarding how activities should be performed, they consider only the main high-level tasks. On the other hand, when designers aim to provide precise design indications then the activities are represented at a small granularity, thus including aspects related to the dialogue model of a user interface (which defines how system and user actions can be sequenced. In this

  8. Modeling Agricultural Crop Production in China using AVHRR-based Vegetation Health Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Kogan, F.; Guo, W.; Zhiyuan, P.; Xianfeng, J.

    Weather related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers On a wider scale it has always influenced decision of Governments traders and other policy makers for the purpose of balanced food supplies trade and distribution of aid to the nations in need Therefore national policy and decision makers are giving increasing importance to early assessment of crop losses in response to weather fluctuations This presentation emphasizes utility of AVHRR-based Vegetation health index VHI for early warning of drought-related losses of agricultural production in China The VHI is a three-channel index characterizing greenness vigor and temperature of land surface which can be used as proxy for estimation of how healthy and potentially productive could be vegetation China is the largest in the world producer of grain including wheat and rice and cotton In the major agricultural areas China s crop production is very dependent on weather The VHI being a proxy indicator of weather impact on vegetation showed some correlation with productivity of agricultural crops during the critical period of their development The periods of the strongest correlation were investigated and used to build regression models where crop yield deviation from technological trend was accepted as a dependent and VHI as independent variables The models were developed for several major crops including wheat corn and soybeans

  9. Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Trend as an Urban Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dadang Subarna

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Temperature plays a major role in detecting climate change brought about by urbanisation and industrialisation. Most climatic impact studies rely on changes in the average values of meteorological variables such as temperature. This paper attempts to study the temporal changes in the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city during the last century, specifically in the period 1901–2002.The data used in this study were taken from the Jakarta Climatology Station because they are of are good quality, there are extensive records and there is little missing or blank data. Statistic descriptive methods were employed, including a description of the type of probabilistic model chosen to represent the monthly mean air surface temperature time series. The long-term change in temperature was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method and the statistical linear trend test; the results of these two tests agreed. During the last 100 years, data observations from the station indicate that the monthly mean value of the air surface temperature of Jakarta city has increased at a rate of about 0.152°C decade–1 and has not exhibited variability signals but has changed on average. Based on the linear regression model, the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city is estimated to reach around 28.5°C in 2050 and 29.23°C in 2100.

  10. Drug supply indicators: Pitfalls and possibilities for improvements to assist comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singleton, Nicola; Cunningham, Andrew; Groshkova, Teodora; Royuela, Luis; Sedefov, Roumen

    2018-03-03

    Interventions to tackle the supply of drugs are seen as standard components of illicit drug policies. Therefore drug market-related administrative data, such as seizures, price, purity and drug-related offending, are used in most countries for policy monitoring and assessment of the drug situation. International agencies, such as the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) and the UN Office of Drugs and Crime, also monitor and report on the drug situation cross-nationally and therefore seek to collect and make available key data in a uniform manner from the countries they cover. However, these data are not primarily collected for this purpose, which makes interpretation and comparative analysis difficult. Examples of limitations of these data sources include: the extent to which they reflect operational priorities rather than market changes; question marks over the robustness of and consistency in data collection methods, and issues around the timeliness of data availability. Such problems are compounded by cultural, social and contextual differences between countries. Making sense of such data is therefore challenging and extreme care needs to be taken using it. Nevertheless, these data provide an important window on a hidden area, so improving the quality of the data collected and expanding its scope should be a priority for those seeking to understand or monitor drug markets and supply reduction. In addition to highlighting some of the potential pitfalls in using supply indicators for comparative analysis, this paper presents a selection of options for improvements based on the current EMCDDA programme of work to improve their supply-related monitoring and analysis. The conceptual framework developed to steer this work may have wider application. Adopting this approach has the potential to provide a richer picture of drug markets, at both national and international levels, and make it easier to compare data between countries. Copyright

  11. ModelMate - A graphical user interface for model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2011-01-01

    ModelMate is a graphical user interface designed to facilitate use of model-analysis programs with models. This initial version of ModelMate supports one model-analysis program, UCODE_2005, and one model software program, MODFLOW-2005. ModelMate can be used to prepare input files for UCODE_2005, run UCODE_2005, and display analysis results. A link to the GW_Chart graphing program facilitates visual interpretation of results. ModelMate includes capabilities for organizing directories used with the parallel-processing capabilities of UCODE_2005 and for maintaining files in those directories to be identical to a set of files in a master directory. ModelMate can be used on its own or in conjunction with ModelMuse, a graphical user interface for MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST.

  12. An indicator based 'traffic light' model to pro-actively assess the occurrence of mycotoxins in tree nuts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeurissen, S.M.F.; Seyhan, F.; Kandhai, M.C.; Dekkers, S.; Booij, C.J.H.; Bos, P.M.J.; Fels, van der H.J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator based 'traffic light' model as a tool to pro-actively assess the occurrence of mycotoxins in tree nuts. The model is built using a holistic approach and, consequently, uses indicators from inside and outside the tree nut production chain as the basic elements.

  13. A Real-Time Recording Model of Key Indicators for Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of Sustainable Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Wu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Buildings’ sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability.

  14. A real-time recording model of key indicators for energy consumption and carbon emissions of sustainable buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Weiwei; Yang, Huanjia; Chew, David; Hou, Yanhong; Li, Qiming

    2014-05-14

    Buildings' sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability.

  15. A Real-Time Recording Model of Key Indicators for Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of Sustainable Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Weiwei; Yang, Huanjia; Chew, David; Hou, Yanhong; Li, Qiming

    2014-01-01

    Buildings' sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability. PMID:24831109

  16. Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness strategy in Peru and its association with health indicators: an ecological analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huicho, Luis; Dávila, Miguel; Gonzales, Fernando; Drasbek, Christopher; Bryce, Jennifer; Victora, Cesar G

    2005-12-01

    The Multi-Country Evaluation of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) Effectiveness, Cost and Impact (MCE) was launched to assess the global effectiveness of this strategy. Impact evaluations were started in five countries. The objectives of the Peru MCE were: (1) to document trends in IMCI implementation in the 24 departments of Peru from 1996 to 2000; (2) to document trends in indicators of health services coverage and impact (mortality and nutritional status) for the same period; (3) to correlate changes in these two sets of indicators, and (4) to attempt to rule out contextual factors that may affect the observed trends and correlations. An ecological analysis was performed in which the units of study were the 24 departments. By 2000, 10.2% of clinical health workers were trained in IMCI, but some districts showed considerably higher rates. There were no significant associations between clinical IMCI training coverage and indicators of outpatient utilization, vaccine coverage, mortality or malnutrition. The lack of association persisted after adjustment for several contextual factors including socioeconomic and environmental indicators and the presence of other child health projects. Community health workers were also trained in IMCI, and training coverage was not associated with any of the process or impact indicators, except for a significant positive correlation with mean height for age. According to the MCE impact model, IMCI implementation must be sufficiently strong to lead to an impact on health and nutrition. Health systems support for IMCI implementation in Peru was far from adequate. This finding, along with low training coverage level and a relatively low child mortality rate, may explain why the expected impact was not documented. Nevertheless, even districts with high levels of training coverage failed to show an impact. Further national effectiveness studies of IMCI and other child interventions are warranted as these interventions are

  17. Associating ecosystem service losses with indicators of toxicity in habitat equivalency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacela, Dave; Lipton, Joshua; Beltman, Douglas; Hansen, James; Wolotira, Robert

    2005-03-01

    Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

  18. Mathematical Analysis for the Optimization of Wastewater Treatment Systems in Facultative Pond Indicator Organic Matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunarsih; Widowati; Kartono; Sutrisno

    2018-02-01

    Stabilization ponds are easy to operate and their maintenance is simple. Treatment is carried out naturally and they are recommended in developing countries. The main disadvantage of these systems is large land area they occupy. The aim of this study was to perform an optimization of the wastewater treatment systems in a facultative pond, considering a mathematical analysis of the methodology to determine the model constrains organic matter. Matlab optimization toolbox was used for non linear programming. A facultative pond with the method was designed and then the optimization system was applied. The analyse meet the treated water quality requirements for the discharge to the water bodies. The results show a reduction of hydraulic retention time by 4.83 days, and the efficiency of of wastewater treatment of 84.16 percent.

  19. Mathematical models of functioning and allocation indicators of road-transport complex resources in the fuel and raw materials region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyvis, V. A.; Novichikhin, A. V.; Temlyantsev, M. V.

    2017-09-01

    A number of features of coal industry functioning was determined for the conditions of Kemerovo region, and the specifics of planning and organization of coal transportation were revealed. The analysis of indicators of motor and railway types of transport in the process of coal transportation was executed. The necessity of improving the tools of coal products transportation in the modern conditions is substantiated. Specific features of functioning of a road-transport complex in the fuel and raw material region (on the example of Kemerovo region) are determined. The modern scientific and applied problems of functioning and allocation of the road-transport complex resources are identified. To justify the management decisions on the development and improvement of road-transport complex a set of indicators are proposed: infrastructural, transportation performance, operating, social and economic. Mathematical models of indicators are recommended for formulation and justification of decisions made during operational and strategic planning of development, evaluation and development of algorithms of functioning and allocation of road-transport sector in Kemerovo region in the future.

  20. A methodology approach for analysis of sustainability indicators as a tool for decision making using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quinhoneiro, Fernando Henrique Franchi

    2015-01-01

    The greatest challenge of this century is focused on sustainability, due to world population growth and consequently to the increased demand for resources such as water, food and energy. The main difficulty when discussing the issue of sustainable development is the evaluation methodology. Because of this, there is a need for a measurement tool that addresses these resources in a holistic manner and be able to translate data into results that can be interpreted. There are tools validated for this purpose like, 'Dashboard of Sustainability' and other developing like the CLEW Nexus by the International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA. This study aims to develop a new model to analyze the correlation between variables, energy, water, land use and climate, using Artificial Intelligence through Fuzzy Logic, having as a data source, indicators that represent one or more resource, considering the relative and temporal distribution required to research results and behaviors. The result is a final index generated by mapping these input data. The results presented using this methodology are indicators of Brazil, but can be applied to any other country, allowing a comparison analysis of the behavior of indices between regions. The contribution of this project will be the availability of a tool with powerful computational resource, aimed at decision makers to assist in developing strategies and development policies. (author)

  1. Multi-trait BLUP model indicates sorghum hybrids with genetic potential for agronomic and nutritional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida Filho, J E; Tardin, F D; Guimarães, J F R; Resende, M D V; Silva, F F; Simeone, M L; Menezes, C B; Queiroz, V A V

    2016-02-26

    The breeding of sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, aimed at improving its nutritional quality, is of great interest, since it can be used as a highly nutritive alternative food source and can possibly be cultivated in regions with low rainfall. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the potential and genetic diversity of grain-sorghum hybrids for traits of agronomic and nutritional interest. To this end, the traits grain yield and flowering, and concentrations of protein, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, iron, manganese, and zinc in the grain were evaluated in 25 grain-sorghum hybrids, comprising 18 experimental hybrids of Embrapa Milho e Sorgo and seven commercial hybrids. The genetic potential was analyzed by a multi-trait best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model, and cluster analysis was accomplished by squared Mahalanobis distance using the predicted genotypic values. Hybrids 0306037 and 0306034 stood out in the agronomic evaluation. The hybrids with agronomic prominence, however, did not stand out for the traits related to the nutritional quality of the grain. Three clusters were formed from the dendrogram obtained with the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean method. From the results of the genotypic BLUP and the analysis of the dendrogram, hybrids 0577337, 0441347, 0307651, and 0306037 were identified as having the potential to establish a population that can aggregate alleles for all the evaluated traits of interest.

  2. Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

    2010-05-01

    Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant

  3. An investigation into the inputs controlling predictions from a diffuse phosphorus loss model for the UK; the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuming; Brazier, Richard; Heathwaite, Louise

    2005-05-15

    A simple catchment scale model simulating diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to water, the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT), has been developed. Previous research has shown that this model worked well in simulating the average annual P lost from two catchments: Windermere and Windrush, but it was not known which drivers in the model had the greatest control on predicted P delivery to water from agricultural land. In order to simulate the P export from each catchment source via each hydrological pathway specified individually, 108 coefficients are used in the model code. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate which coefficient exerted the greatest control on the model output. Results from the univariate analysis suggest that the model is sensitive to a number of coefficients, but importantly, not all of the coefficients that were varied in the sensitivity analysis, altered the model output. The PIT model has been calibrated by optimizing results from the univariate analysis against observed data in the Windermere catchment. The simulated results from model calibration fit the observed data well, at the 95% level. This paper describes the methodology developed for the univariate analysis and evaluates the model calibration procedure against observed data from the Windermere catchment.

  4. Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasa Nie

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. Methods: All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes’ definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. Results: The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58 for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42 for a propensity score-matched set. Conclusion: In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI.

  5. Maternal complications and cesarean section without indication: systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascarello, Keila Cristina; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Silveira, Mariângela Freitas

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to determine the risks of severe acute maternal complications associated with cesarean section without medical indication. METHODS A systematic review was carried out with meta-analysis. The literature search was performed systematically, in multiple stages, in the PubMed, Lilacs, and Web of Science databases using the following descriptors: (postpartum period) and (cesarean section or natural childbirth) and ((morbidity or mortality) or (postpartum hemorrhage) or (puerperal infection) or (surgical infection) or (puerperal disorders)). The protocol of the study was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42016032933. A total of 1,328 articles were found; after selection, eight publications that met the study objective and inclusion criteria were selected, with information on 1,051,543 individuals. RESULTS The results obtained in the meta-analyses indicate that women with cesarean section have a higher chance of maternal death (OR = 3.10, 95%CI 1.92–5.00) and postpartum infection (OR = 2.83, 95%CI, 1.585.06), but they have a lower chance of hemorrhage (OR = 0.52, 95%CI 0.48–0.57). For the blood transfusion outcome, the group effect was not associated with the type of delivery (95%CI 0.88–2.81). CONCLUSIONS The quality of evidence was considered low for hemorrhage and blood transfusion and moderate for postpartum infection and maternal death. Thus, cesarean sections should be performed with caution and safety, especially when its benefits outweigh the risks of a surgical procedure. PMID:29166440

  6. Integrated conceptual ecological model and habitat indices for the southwest Florida coastal wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, G. Lynn; Lorenz, J. L.

    2014-01-01

    The coastal wetlands of southwest Florida that extend from Charlotte Harbor south to Cape Sable, contain more than 60,000 ha of mangroves and 22,177 ha of salt marsh. These coastal wetlands form a transition zone between the freshwater and marine environments of the South Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem (SFCME). The coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services that are valued by society and thus are important to the economy of the state. Species from throughout the region spend part of their life cycle in the coastal wetlands, including many marine and coastal-dependent species, making this zone critical to the ecosystem health of the Everglades and the SFCME. However, the coastal wetlands are increasingly vulnerable due to rising sea level, changes in storm intensity and frequency, land use, and water management practices. They are at the boundary of the region covered by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and thus are impacted by both CERP and marine resource management decisions. An integrated conceptual ecological model (ICEM) for the southwest coastal wetlands of Florida was developed that illustrates the linkages between drivers, pressures, ecological process, and ecosystem services. Five ecological indicators are presented: (1) mangrove community structure and spatial extent; (2) waterbirds; (3) prey-base fish and macroinvertebrates; (4) crocodilians; and (5) periphyton. Most of these indicators are already used in other areas of south Florida and the SFCME, and therefore will allow metrics from the coastal wetlands to be used in system-wide assessments that incorporate the entire Greater Everglades Ecosystem.

  7. Analysis and interpretation of stress indicators in deviated wells of the Coso Geothermal Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenball, Martin; Glen, Jonathan M. G.; Davatzes, Nicholas C.

    2016-01-01

    Characterizing the tectonic stress field is an integral part of the development of hydrothermal systems and especially for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). With a well characterized stress field the propensity of fault slip on faults with known location and orientation can be identified. Faults that are critically oriented for faulting with respect to the stress field are known to provide natural fluid pathways. A high slip tendency makes a fault a likely candidate for reactivation during the creation of an EGS. Similarly, the stress state provides insight for the potential of larger, damaging earthquakes should extensive portions of well-oriented, larger faults be reactivated.The analysis of stress indicators such as drilling-induced fractures and borehole breakouts is the main tool to infer information on the stress state of a geothermal reservoir. The standard procedure is applicable to sub-vertical wellbore sections and highly deviated sections have to be discarded. However, in order to save costs and reduce the environmental impact most recent wells are directionally drilled with deviations that require appropriate consideration of the deviated trajectory. Here we present an analysis scheme applicable to arbitrary well trajectories or a combination of wells to infer the stress state. Through the sampling of the stress tensor along several directions additional information on the stress regime and even relative stress magnitudes can be obtained. We apply this method on image logs from the pair of wells 58-10 and 58A-10 that were drilled from the same well pad. Both wells have image logs of about 2km of their trajectories that are separated by less than 300m. For both wells we obtain a mean orientation of SHmax of N23° with large standard deviations of locations of stress indicators of 24° and 26°, respectively. While the local stress direction is highly variable along both wells with dominant wavelengths from around 50 to 500m, the mean directions are very

  8. A methodological proposal for quantifying environmental compensation through the spatial analysis of vulnerability indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Enrique Torresan

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to propose a methodology for quantifying the environmental compensation through the spatial analysis of vulnerability indicators. A case study was applied for the analysis of sand extraction enterprises, in the region of Descalvado and Analândia, inland of São Paulo State, Brazil. Environmental vulnerability scores were attributed for the indicators related to erosion, hydrological resources and biodiversity loss. This methodological proposal allowed analyzing the local alternatives of certain enterprise with the objective of reducing impacts and at the same time reducing the costs of environmental compensation. The application of the methodology significantly reduced the subjectivity degree usually associated to the most of the methodologies of impact evaluation.O termo compensação ambiental refere-se à obrigação do empreendedor em apoiar a implantação e manutenção de Unidades de Conservação, aplicável a empreendimentos de significativo impacto ambiental, de acordo com a Lei 9.986/2000. Esta lei estabelece que o volume de recursos a ser aplicado pelo empreendedor deve ser de no mínimo 0,5% dos custos totais previstos para a implantação do empreendimento, sendo que este percentual deve ser fixado pelo órgão ambiental competente, de acordo com o grau de impacto ambiental. Sendo assim, o presente artigo tem o objetivo de propor uma metodologia para quantificação da compensação ambiental através da análise espacial de indicadores de vulnerabilidade ambiental. A proposta foi aplicada através de um estudo de caso em empreendimentos de mineração de areia, na região de Descalvado/Analândia, interior do Estado de São Paulo. Índices de vulnerabilidade ambiental foram atribuídos a indicadores de impactos relacionados à erosão, recursos hídricos e perda de biodiversidade. Esta metodologia representa importante instrumento de planejamento ambiental e econômico, podendo ser adaptada a diversos

  9. Diagnosis, Synthesis and Analysis of Probabilistic Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, Tingting

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation considers three important aspects of model checking Markov models: diagnosis — generating counterexamples, synthesis — providing valid parameter values and analysis — verifying linear real-time properties. The three aspects are relatively independent while all contribute to

  10. Comparison of co-expression measures: mutual information, correlation, and model based indices

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    Song Lin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Co-expression measures are often used to define networks among genes. Mutual information (MI is often used as a generalized correlation measure. It is not clear how much MI adds beyond standard (robust correlation measures or regression model based association measures. Further, it is important to assess what transformations of these and other co-expression measures lead to biologically meaningful modules (clusters of genes. Results We provide a comprehensive comparison between mutual information and several correlation measures in 8 empirical data sets and in simulations. We also study different approaches for transforming an adjacency matrix, e.g. using the topological overlap measure. Overall, we confirm close relationships between MI and correlation in all data sets which reflects the fact that most gene pairs satisfy linear or monotonic relationships. We discuss rare situations when the two measures disagree. We also compare correlation and MI based approaches when it comes to defining co-expression network modules. We show that a robust measure of correlation (the biweight midcorrelation transformed via the topological overlap transformation leads to modules that are superior to MI based modules and maximal information coefficient (MIC based modules in terms of gene ontology enrichment. We present a function that relates correlation to mutual information which can be used to approximate the mutual information from the corresponding correlation coefficient. We propose the use of polynomial or spline regression models as an alternative to MI for capturing non-linear relationships between quantitative variables. Conclusion The biweight midcorrelation outperforms MI in terms of elucidating gene pairwise relationships. Coupled with the topological overlap matrix transformation, it often leads to more significantly enriched co-expression modules. Spline and polynomial networks form attractive alternatives to MI in case of non

  11. Effective Solar Indices for Ionospheric Modeling: A Review and a Proposal for a Real-Time Regional IRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pignalberi, A.; Pezzopane, M.; Rizzi, R.; Galkin, I.

    2018-01-01

    The first part of this paper reviews methods using effective solar indices to update a background ionospheric model focusing on those employing the Kriging method to perform the spatial interpolation. Then, it proposes a method to update the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model through the assimilation of data collected by a European ionosonde network. The method, called International Reference Ionosphere UPdate (IRI UP), that can potentially operate in real time, is mathematically described and validated for the period 9-25 March 2015 (a time window including the well-known St. Patrick storm occurred on 17 March), using IRI and IRI Real Time Assimilative Model (IRTAM) models as the reference. It relies on foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric characteristics, recorded routinely by a network of 12 European ionosonde stations, which are used to calculate for each station effective values of IRI indices IG_{12} and R_{12} (identified as IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}}); then, starting from this discrete dataset of values, two-dimensional (2D) maps of IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}} are generated through the universal Kriging method. Five variogram models are proposed and tested statistically to select the best performer for each effective index. Then, computed maps of IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}} are used in the IRI model to synthesize updated values of foF2 and hmF2. To evaluate the ability of the proposed method to reproduce rapid local changes that are common under disturbed conditions, quality metrics are calculated for two test stations whose measurements were not assimilated in IRI UP, Fairford (51.7°N, 1.5°W) and San Vito (40.6°N, 17.8°E), for IRI, IRI UP, and IRTAM models. The proposed method turns out to be very effective under highly disturbed conditions, with significant improvements of the foF2 representation and noticeable improvements of the hmF2 one. Important improvements have been verified also for quiet and moderately disturbed

  12. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  13. Analysis on Indications and Causes of Cesarean Section on Pemba Island of Zanzibar in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore and analyze the indications and causes of cesarean section on Pemba island of Zanzibar in Africa to improve the quality of obstetrics. Methods: 564 patients performed cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba from January, 2008 to December, 2011 were selected, and statistics was conducted by the method of retrospective analysis. Results: The rate of cesarean section in Abdulla Mzee Hospital of Pemba was 10.01%. The primary causes of cesarean section included cephalopelvic disproportion (27.13%, scar uterus (23.40%, preeclampsia and eclampsia (13.30%, fetal distress in uterus (9.40%, fetal factors (9.75% and complication of pregnancy (6.91%. Conclusion: Cesarean section plays a great role in the treatment of dystocia, some complications of pregnancy and reducing the mortality of pregnant women and perinatal infants, but in the area with relatively undeveloped medical conditions in Africa, cesarean section still takes great risks. Unnecessary cesarean section cannot reduce the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal morbidity. The local medical staff should improve the midwifery technique, establish and perfect the formal antenatal examination system to improve the quality of maternity.

  14. Passive Noise Analysis for Advanced Tamper Indication. End of Year Report 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Benjamin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sanders, Jeff [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); West, James [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Svoboda, John [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is part of a multi-lab project assessing front-end electronics for unattended measurement (FEUM) being developed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unattended systems. The FEUM development activity provides an opportunity to address tampering detection between FEUM and the detector, signal integrity from FEUM to the data acquisition systems, and data validity – long-standing challenges for the IAEA. This report summarizes the INL activities in Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 to characterize and test passive noise analysis as a potential tamper-indicating approach for implementation into FEUM or as a stand-alone method. The project’s primary objectives in FY-15 were to (1) determine detectable tamper scenarios using four pre-amplifier/detector systems, (2) perform tests of tampering scenarios with three common cable types used by the IAEA, (3) separate radio-frequency-induced events from inherent effect by means of an anechoic chamber, and (4) perform tests at an industrial facility. General conclusions were reached in several areas.

  15. Metatranscriptome analysis of the reef-buidling coral Orbicella faveolata indicates holobiont response to coral disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille eDaniels

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available White Plague Disease (WPD is implicated in coral reef decline in the Caribbean and is characterized by microbial community shifts in coral mucus and tissue. Studies thus far have focused on assessing microbial communities or the identification of specific pathogens, yet few have addressed holobiont response across metaorganism compartments in coral disease. Here, we report on the first metatranscriptomic assessment of the coral host, algal symbiont, and microbial compartment in order to survey holobiont structure and function in healthy and diseased samples from Orbicella faveolata collected at reef sites off Puerto Rico. Our data indicate metaorganism-wide as well as compartment-specific responses to WPD. Gene expression changes in the diseased coral host involved proteins playing a role in innate immunity, cytoskeletal integrity, cell adhesion, oxidative stress, chemical defense, and retroelements. In contrast, the algal symbiont showed comparatively few expression changes, but of large magnitude, of genes related to stress, photosynthesis, and metal transport. Concordant with the coral host response, the bacterial compartment showed increased abundance of heat shock proteins, genes related to oxidative stress, DNA repair, and potential retroelement activity. Importantly, analysis of the expressed bacterial gene functions establishes the participation of multiple bacterial families in WPD pathogenesis and also suggests a possible involvement of viruses and/or phages in structuring the bacterial assemblage. In this study, we implement an experimental approach to partition the coral holobiont and resolve compartment- and taxa-specific responses in order to understand metaorganism function in coral disease.

  16. Complete mitochondrial genome phylogeographic analysis of killer whales (Orcinus orca) indicates multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Phillip A; Archer, Frederick I; Foote, Andrew D; Vilstrup, Julia; Allen, Eric E; Wade, Paul; Durban, John; Parsons, Kim; Pitman, Robert; Li, Lewyn; Bouffard, Pascal; Abel Nielsen, Sandra C; Rasmussen, Morten; Willerslev, Eske; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Harkins, Timothy

    2010-07-01

    Killer whales (Orcinus orca) currently comprise a single, cosmopolitan species with a diverse diet. However, studies over the last 30 yr have revealed populations of sympatric "ecotypes" with discrete prey preferences, morphology, and behaviors. Although these ecotypes avoid social interactions and are not known to interbreed, genetic studies to date have found extremely low levels of diversity in the mitochondrial control region, and few clear phylogeographic patterns worldwide. This low level of diversity is likely due to low mitochondrial mutation rates that are common to cetaceans. Using killer whales as a case study, we have developed a method to readily sequence, assemble, and analyze complete mitochondrial genomes from large numbers of samples to more accurately assess phylogeography and estimate divergence times. This represents an important tool for wildlife management, not only for killer whales but for many marine taxa. We used high-throughput sequencing to survey whole mitochondrial genome variation of 139 samples from the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and southern oceans. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that each of the known ecotypes represents a strongly supported clade with divergence times ranging from approximately 150,000 to 700,000 yr ago. We recommend that three named ecotypes be elevated to full species, and that the remaining types be recognized as subspecies pending additional data. Establishing appropriate taxonomic designations will greatly aid in understanding the ecological impacts and conservation needs of these important marine predators. We predict that phylogeographic mitogenomics will become an important tool for improved statistical phylogeography and more precise estimates of divergence times.

  17. ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND HEALTH-ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CASE OF CHILDREN OCULAR TRAUMA

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    Laurentiu STUPARIU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of epidemiological and health-economic indicators on ocular trauma involving children is important for developing targeted managerial, medical and educational strategies of health care providers and patients in order to reduce incidence and severity of pediatric ocular trauma. We analysed data collected from 29 children with ocular trauma from Emergency Hospital of Sibiu, between 2008-2016. For this children with closed globe injury it took an average of 7 days of hospitalization (IQR: (5; 9.5, with a cost per day of hospitalization on average of 127 RON (IQR: (103; 136, respectively a total hospitalization cost on average 856 RON (IQR: (529; 998, with no significant gender or area differences. It took a slightly larger number of hospitalization days in the following situations: (1 in the case of mixed trauma compared to lamellar lacerations or contusions; (2 if the affected area was zone III compared to the other two areas (zone I and zone II; (3 where the visual acuity at admission was less than 1/6(0.16 compared to cases with visual acuity greater than 1/6(0.16; (4 in patients with hypertension at admission compared to those with normal tension or hypotension.

  18. Metatranscriptome analysis of the reef-building coral Orbicella faveolata indicates holobiont response to coral disease

    KAUST Repository

    Daniels, Camille Arian

    2015-09-11

    White Plague Disease (WPD) is implicated in coral reef decline in the Caribbean and is characterized by microbial community shifts in coral mucus and tissue. Studies thus far have focused on assessing microbial communities or the identification of specific pathogens, yet few have addressed holobiont response across metaorganism compartments in coral disease. Here, we report on the first metatranscriptomic assessment of the coral host, algal symbiont, and microbial compartment in order to survey holobiont structure and function in healthy and diseased samples from Orbicella faveolata collected at reef sites off Puerto Rico. Our data indicate holobiont-wide as well as compartment-specific responses to WPD. Gene expression changes in the diseased coral host involved proteins playing a role in innate immunity, cytoskeletal integrity, cell adhesion, oxidative stress, chemical defense, and retroelements. In contrast, the algal symbiont showed comparatively few expression changes, but of large magnitude, of genes related to stress, photosynthesis, and metal transport. Concordant with the coral host response, the bacterial compartment showed increased abundance of heat shock proteins, genes related to oxidative stress, DNA repair, and potential retroelement activity. Importantly, analysis of the expressed bacterial gene functions establishes the participation of multiple bacterial families in WPD pathogenesis and also suggests a possible involvement of viruses and/or phages in structuring the bacterial assemblage. In this study, we implement an experimental approach to partition the coral holobiont and resolve compartment- and taxa-specific responses in order to understand metaorganism function in coral disease.

  19. Early indication of noise-induced hearing loss from PMP use in adolescents: A cross-sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana C Colon

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs may indicate preclinical noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL in adolescents from unsafe personal music player (PMP use. Aims: The objective, therefore, was to observe preclinical signs of NIHL in 9th grade adolescents with clinically normal hearing by comparing DPOAE signals between different levels of A-weighted equivalent PMP exposure. Settings and Design: Subjects were recruited from all secondary-level schools located in the city of Regensburg, Germany during two academic years 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Subjects and Methods: A-weighted equivalent sound pressure levels (SPLs for a 40-hour work week (LAeq,40h were estimated from questionnaire responses on output and duration of PMP use of the previous week. Subjects were then categorized into four levels of exposure: 85 to <90, and ≥90 A-weighted Decibel [dB(A]. DPOAE signals were collected by trained audiological staff, applying a standard optimized protocol, at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology of the University Hospital Regensburg. Statistical Analysis Used: Mean DPOAE signals were compared between levels by unpaired t test. Novel linear regression models adjusting for other leisure noise exposures and with outcome variables DPoutcome and 4 kilo Hertz (kHz DPOAEs estimated effects between levels. Results: A total of 1468 subjects (56% female, mostly aged 15 or 16 years were available for analysis. Comparison of DPOAE means by PMP exposure typically showed no greater than 1 dB difference between groups. In fact, comparisons between ≥90 dB(A and <80 dB(A presented the least differences in magnitude. Both DPoutcome and 4 kHz linear regression models presented a weak association with the 4-level PMP exposure variable. An expected dose-response to PMP exposure was not observed in any analyses. Conclusions: DPOAE signal strength alone cannot indicate preclinical NIHL in adolescents.

  20. [Caffeine: traditional and new therapeutic indications and use as a dermatological model drug].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bors, Luca; Bajza, Ágnes; Kocsis, Dorottya; Erdő, Franciska

    2018-03-01

    Coffee consumption had already been described in the 15th century. The spreading of coffee drinking was not only a consequence of its delicious aromatic taste, but also of its pharmacological effects, especially due to its caffeine content. In this review, the mechanisms behind its complex stimulatory effects and the latest studies on the possible new therapeutic indications of caffeine are summarized. Several papers reported the neuroprotective (in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease) and hepatoprotective profiles of caffeine, and we show the most promising new results about its preventive properties in dermal malignancies. These findings were described both in cell cultures and in vivo. The application of caffeine and coffee in cosmetology and dermatological products is based on their antioxidant property and on the above-mentioned beneficial effects. Caffeine is also presented here as a dermatological model drug due to its hydrophilic profile. It can be used for designing and comparing different novel drug formulations, although beside the transcellular route, the follicular and transappendageal pathways play also important roles in its skin penetration. Taken together, caffeine molecule has many recently discovered beneficial pharmacological effects, but one should be careful with its excessive consumption. It can result in several adverse events if overdosed and in case of regular intake of high doses, after abandonment, withdrawal symptoms may appear. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(10): 384-390.

  1. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model of internal barriers to drug treatment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Chang; Kelly, Brian C; Liao, Yanhui; He, Haoyu; Luo, Tao; Deng, Huiqiong; Liu, Tieqiao; Hao, Wei; Wang, Jichuan

    2015-03-01

    Although evidence exists for distinct barriers to drug abuse treatment (BDATs), investigations of their inter-relationships and the effect of individual characteristics on the barrier factors have been sparse, especially in China. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model is applied for this target. A sample of 262 drug users were recruited from three drug rehabilitation centers in Hunan Province, China. We applied a MIMIC approach to investigate the effect of gender, age, marital status, education, primary substance use, duration of primary drug use, and drug treatment experience on the internal barrier factors: absence of problem (AP), negative social support (NSS), fear of treatment (FT), and privacy concerns (PC). Drug users of various characteristics were found to report different internal barrier factors. Younger participants were more likely to report NSS (-0.19, p=0.038) and PC (-0.31, pdrug users, ice users were more likely to report AP (0.44, pDrug treatment experiences related to AP (0.20, p=0.012). In addition, differential item functioning (DIF) occurred in three items when participant from groups with different duration of drug use, ice use, or marital status. Individual characteristics had significant effects on internal barriers to drug treatment. On this basis, BDAT perceived by different individuals could be assessed before tactics were utilized to successfully remove perceived barriers to drug treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. URBAN TREE CROWN PROJECTION AREA MAPPING WITH OBJECT BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS FOR URBAN ECOSYSTEM SERVICE INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAKÁCS ÁGNES

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The continuous expansion of built-up areas in the urban environment at the expense of green spaces brings up numerous environmental problems, for which accurate and efficient solutions should be found. The assessment of ecosystem services developed within the field of landscape ecology is playing an ever more important role in environmental sciences and thus may offer suitable answers. Such assessments can be carried out by developing indicators. Accordingly, in the case of urban trees, an accurate quantitative characterization of their services (such as e.g. carbon sequestration, pollutant removal and microclimate regulation is also needed. The aim of this study is to establish a generally applicable method based on indicator development, using widely available data. In the case of urban green spaces there are several services for which the development of proper indicators and evaluation methods requires a delineation of tree crowns, or at least the crown projection area. Accordingly, in our work, we map the crown projection area of a large and popular urban park of Szeged, Széchenyi square, using object-based image analysis on UltraCamD digital orthophotos. Following a multiresolution segmentation the classification of the resulting objects was carried out, using the eCognition image analysis software. Besides fulfilling the policy objectives related to the evaluation of urban ecosystem services, the produced crown base can also be used in several other types of urban ecological and urban climatological studies (e.g. urban climate modelling, human-comfort assessment. In this paper the first results are presented.

  3. Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The motivation behind this research is to innovatively combine new methods like wavelet, principal component analysis (PCA), and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches to analyze trade in today’s increasingly difficult and volatile financial futures markets. The main focus of this study is to facilitate forecasting by using an enhanced denoising process on market data, taken as a multivariate signal, in order to deduct the same noise from the open-high-low-close signal of a market. This research offers evidence on the predictive ability and the profitability of abnormal returns of a new hybrid forecasting model using Wavelet-PCA denoising and ANN (named WPCA-NN) on futures contracts of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures, Japan’s NIKKEI 225 futures, Singapore’s MSCI futures, South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures, and Taiwan’s TAIEX futures from 2005 to 2014. Using a host of technical analysis indicators consisting of RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, Stochastic Fast %K, Stochastic Slow %K, Stochastic %D, and Ultimate Oscillator, empirical results show that the annual mean returns of WPCA-NN are more than the threshold buy-and-hold for the validation, test, and evaluation periods; this is inconsistent with the traditional random walk hypothesis, which insists that mechanical rules cannot outperform the threshold buy-and-hold. The findings, however, are consistent with literature that advocates technical analysis. PMID:27248692

  4. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

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    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi-Criteria Decision- Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes were considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts were taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, were related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that was drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks were consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement with the decision-making group. This study indicated that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and approaches. Moreover, using the FOWA model provides results accurate and closer- to-reality on the significance of

  5. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model Part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green gross domestic product representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green gross domestic product. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the

  6. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model. Part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green GDP representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green GDP. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the economic development of Russia and the

  7. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  8. Degree of anisotropy as an automated indicator of rip channels in high resolution bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimble, S. M.; Houser, C.; Bishop, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    A rip current is a concentrated seaward flow of water that forms in the surf zone of a beach as a result of alongshore variations in wave breaking. Rips can carry swimmers swiftly into deep water, and they are responsible for hundreds of fatal drownings and thousands of rescues worldwide each year. These currents form regularly alongside hard structures like piers and jetties, and can also form along sandy coasts when there is a three dimensional bar morphology. This latter rip type tends to be variable in strength and location, making them arguably the most dangerous to swimmers and most difficult to identify. These currents form in characteristic rip channels in surf zone bathymetry, in which the primary axis of self-similarity is oriented shore-normal. This paper demonstrates a new method for automating identification of such rip channels in bathymetric digital surface models (DSMs) using bathymetric data collected by various remote sensing methods. Degree of anisotropy is used to detect rip channels and distinguishes between sandbars, rip channels, and other beach features. This has implications for coastal geomorphology theory and safety practices. As technological advances increase access and accuracy of topobathy mapping methods in the surf zone, frequent nearshore bathymetric DSMs could be more easily captured and processed, then analyzed with this method to result in localized, automated, and frequent detection of rip channels. This could ultimately reduce rip-related fatalities worldwide (i) in present mitigation, by identifying the present location of rip channels, (ii) in forecasting, by tracking the channel's evolution through multiple DSMs, and (iii) in rip education by improving local lifeguard knowledge of the rip hazard. Although this paper on applies analysis of degree of anisotropy to the identification of rip channels, this parameter can be applied to multiple facets of barrier island morphological analysis.

  9. Frequency and risk indicators of tooth decay among pregnant women in France: a cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergnes, Jean-Noel; Kaminski, Monique; Lelong, Nathalie; Musset, Anne-Marie; Sixou, Michel; Nabet, Cathy

    2012-01-01

    Little is known on the prevalence of tooth decay among pregnant women. Better knowledge of tooth decay risk indicators during pregnancy could help to develop follow-up protocols for women at risk, along with better prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth per woman in a large sample of pregnant women in France, and to study associated risk indicators. A secondary cross-sectional analysis of data from a French multicentre case-control study was performed. The sample was composed of 1094 at-term women of six maternity units. A dental examination was carried out within 2 to 4 days post-partum. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were obtained through a standardised interview with the women. Medical characteristics were obtained from the women's medical records. Risk indicators associated with tooth decay were identified using a negative binomial hurdle model. 51.6% of the women had tooth decay. The mean number of decayed teeth among women having at least one was 3.1 (s.d. = 2.8). Having tooth decay was statistically associated with lower age (aOR = 1.58, 95%CI [1.03,2.45]), lower educational level (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI [1.06,2.23]) and dental plaque (aOR = 1.75, 95%CI [1.27,2.41]). The number of decayed teeth was associated with the same risk indicators and with non-French nationality and inadequate prenatal care. The frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth among pregnant women were high. Oral health promotion programmes must continue to inform women and care providers about the importance of dental care before, during and after pregnancy. Future research should also assess the effectiveness of public policies related to oral health in target populations of pregnant women facing challenging social or economic situations.

  10. Multi-Analytical Approach Reveals Potential Microbial Indicators in Soil for Sugarcane Model Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarrete, Acacio Aparecido; Diniz, Tatiana Rosa; Braga, Lucas Palma Perez; Silva, Genivaldo Gueiros Zacarias; Franchini, Julio Cezar; Rossetto, Raffaella; Edwards, Robert Alan; Tsai, Siu Mui

    2015-01-01

    This study focused on the effects of organic and inorganic amendments and straw retention on the microbial biomass (MB) and taxonomic groups of bacteria in sugarcane-cultivated soils in a greenhouse mesocosm experiment monitored for gas emissions and chemical factors. The experiment consisted of combinations of synthetic nitrogen (N), vinasse (V; a liquid waste from ethanol production), and sugarcane-straw blankets. Increases in CO2-C and N2O-N emissions were identified shortly after the addition of both N and V to the soils, thus increasing MB nitrogen (MB-N) and decreasing MB carbon (MB-C) in the N+V-amended soils and altering soil chemical factors that were correlated with the MB. Across 57 soil metagenomic datasets, Actinobacteria (31.5%), Planctomycetes (12.3%), Deltaproteobacteria (12.3%), Alphaproteobacteria (12.0%) and Betaproteobacteria (11.1%) were the most dominant bacterial groups during the experiment. Differences in relative abundance of metagenomic sequences were mainly revealed for Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia with regard to N+V fertilization and straw retention. Differential abundances in bacterial groups were confirmed using 16S rRNA gene-targeted phylum-specific primers for real-time PCR analysis in all soil samples, whose results were in accordance with sequence data, except for Gammaproteobacteria. Actinobacteria were more responsive to straw retention with Rubrobacterales, Bifidobacteriales and Actinomycetales related to the chemical factors of N+V-amended soils. Acidobacteria subgroup 7 and Opitutae, a verrucomicrobial class, were related to the chemical factors of soils without straw retention as a surface blanket. Taken together, the results showed that MB-C and MB-N responded to changes in soil chemical factors and CO2-C and N2O-N emissions, especially for N+V-amended soils. The results also indicated that several taxonomic groups of bacteria, such as Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and

  11. Numerical analysis of dependence between adapted mesh and assumed error indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucwaj, Jan

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the influence of the assumed error indicator on the final adapted mesh. Provided that threshold values of an error are increased by applying the adaptive procedure, it turns out that final mesh depends on the assumed error indicator. In the paper, there were used the standard error estimates and the error indicator proposed by the author. The proposed error indicator is based on applying hierarchically generalized finite difference method (FDM). In the case of the proposed error indicator, the final adapted mesh is the most optimal for the exact solution.

  12. Analysis of epidemiological indices of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the adult population of Moscow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Fedorovna Kalashnikova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes mellitus is a disease that presents a global medical problem. It is necessary to implement an in-depth analysis of the epidemiological situation of type 2 diabetes mellitus for planning and organizing specialized medical help to patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.AimTo rate the basic epidemiological indices of type 2 diabetes mellitus in actual clinical practice using the informational database of national registry of diabetic patients.Materials and methodsEpidemiological analyses were performed in two administrative districts of Moscow. From 1999 to 2011 48978 adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were aged 18 years and older were registered. We used methods of clinical, analytical and statistical epidemiology with elements of descriptive research.ResultsThe prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 1590 per hundred thousand, most patients were in the 60–64 and 70–74 age groups, and approximately 80% of patients were older than 55 years. The morbidity rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 138,72 per hundred thousand and was found to be higher in women at 1,89. The mortality rate of adult patients with diabetes mellitus was 0,83, mostly in men of all ages. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for most of the registered cases of deaths (34,4%. The average life expectancy appeared to be 75,24±0,45 years, although women lived 6 years longer than men. The average duration of the disease was 10,04±0,34 years. A total of 0,4% of patients underwent hospital treatment and the average length of treatment was 17–18 days. The total number of days of disablement was an average of 307,33±30,13 days (80% of patients were older than 55 years. In the study group, a mean grade of НbА1c <7% was observed in 56,6% of patients. The prevalence rate of detected chronic complications was considerably lower compared to other epidemiological studies.ConclusionsOur epidemiological analyses revealed a number of features and consistent

  13. Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) Model to Detect Financial Crisis in Indonesia Based on Import and Export Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana; Rahma Dwi, Sisca

    2017-06-01

    A country is said to be a crisis when the financial system is experiencing a disruption that affects systems that can not function efficiently. The performance efficiency of macroeconomic indicators especially in imports and exports can be used to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Based on the import and export indicators from 1987 to 2015, the movement of these indicators can be modelled using SWARCH three states. The results showed that SWARCH (3,1) model was able to detect the crisis that occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. Using this model, it can be concluded that Indonesia is prone to financial crisis in 2016.

  14. Psychometric analysis of the TRANSIT quality indicators for cardiovascular disease prevention in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanji, Cynthia; Bareil, Céline; Hudon, Eveline; Goudreau, Johanne; Duhamel, Fabie; Lussier, Marie-Thérèse; Perreault, Sylvie; Lalonde, Gilles; Turcotte, Alain; Berbiche, Djamal; Martin, Élisabeth; Lévesque, Lise; Gagnon, Marie-Mireille; Lalonde, Lyne

    2017-12-01

    To assess a selection of psychometric properties of the TRANSIT indicators. Using medical records, indicators were documented retrospectively during the 14 months preceding the end of the TRANSIT study. Primary care in Quebec, Canada. Indicators were documented in a random subsample (n = 123 patients) of the TRANSIT study population (n = 759). For every patient, the mean compliance to all indicators of a category (subscale score) and to the complete set of indicators (overall scale score) were established. To evaluate test-retest and inter-rater reliabilities, indicators were applied twice, two months apart, by the same evaluator and independently by different evaluators, respectively. To evaluate convergent validity, correlations between TRANSIT indicators, Burge et al. indicators and Institut national d'excellence en santé et en services sociaux (INESSS) indicators were examined. Test-retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, and convergent validity. Test-retest reliability, as measured by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) was equal to 0.99 (0.99-0.99) for the overall scale score while inter-rater reliability was equal to 0.95 (0.93-0.97) for the overall scale score. Convergent validity, as measured by Pearson's correlation coefficients, was equal to 0.77 (P TRANSIT indicators were compared to Burge et al. indicators and to 0.82 (P TRANSIT indicators were compared to INESSS indicators. Reliability was excellent except for eleven indicators while convergent validity was strong except for domains related to the management of CVD risk factors. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  15. Waste indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dall, O.; Lassen, C.; Hansen, E.

    2003-01-01

    The Waste Indicator Project focuses on methods to evaluate the efficiency of waste management. The project proposes the use of three indicators for resource consumption, primary energy and landfill requirements, based on the life-cycle principles applied in the EDIP Project. Trial runs are made With the indicators on paper, glass packaging and aluminium, and two models are identified for mapping the Danish waste management, of which the least extensive focuses on real and potential savings. (au)

  16. Waste indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall, O.; Lassen, C.; Hansen, E. [Cowi A/S, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    The Waste Indicator Project focuses on methods to evaluate the efficiency of waste management. The project proposes the use of three indicators for resource consumption, primary energy and landfill requirements, based on the life-cycle principles applied in the EDIP Project. Trial runs are made With the indicators on paper, glass packaging and aluminium, and two models are identified for mapping the Danish waste management, of which the least extensive focuses on real and potential savings. (au)

  17. Trophic position of soil nematodes in boreal forests as indicated by stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudrin, Alexey; Tsurikov, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Despite the well-developed trophic classification of soil nematodes, their position in soil food webs is still little understood. Observed deviations from the typical feeding strategy indicate that a simplified trophic classification probably does not fully reflect actual trophic interactions. Furthermore, the extent and functional significance of nematodes as prey for other soil animals remains unknown. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) is powerful tool for investigating the structure of soil food webs, but its application to the study of soil nematodes has been limited to only a few studies. We used stable isotope analysis to gain a better understanding of trophic links of several groups of soil nematodes in two boreal forests on albeluvisol. We investigated four taxonomic groups of nematodes: Mononchida, Dorylaimida, Plectidae and Tylenchidae (mostly from the genus Filenchus), that according to the conventional trophic classification represent predators, omnivores, bacterivores and root-fungal feeders, respectively. To assess the trophic position of nematodes, we used a comparison against a set of reference species including herbivorous, saprophagous and predatory macro-invertebrates, oribatid and mesostigmatid mites, and collembolans. Our results suggest that trophic position of the investigated groups of soil nematodes generally corresponds to the conventional classification. All nematodes were enriched in 13C relative to Picea abies roots and litter, and mycorrhizal fungal mycelium. Root-fungal feeders Tylenchidae had δ15N values similar to those of earthworms, enchytraeids and Entomobrya collembolans, but slightly lower δ13C values. Bacterivorous Plectidae were either equal or enriched in 15N compared with saprophagous macroinvertebrates and most mesofauna species. Omnivorous Dorylaimida and predatory Mononchida were further enriched in 15N and their isotopic signature was similar to that of predatory arthropods. These data confirm a clear separation of

  18. Analysis and interpretation of stress indicators in deviated wells of the Coso Geothermal Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenball, Martin; Glen, Jonathan M. G.; Davatzes, Nicholas C.

    2016-04-01

    Characterizing the tectonic stress field is an integral part for the development of hydrothermal systems, especially enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). With a known stress field, critically stressed faults can be identified. Faults that are critically oriented with respect to the in-situ stress field exhibit a high tendency for slip, and thus are likely candidates for reactivation during the creation of an EGS. Reactivated faults are known to serve as dominant fluid pathways during hydrothermal circulation and the characteristics of this process determine the potential for damaging earthquakes; should extensive portions of well-oriented, large features be reactivated. As part of the FORGE initiative at the West Flank of the Coso Geothermal Field, we analyze a large set of image logs obtained from wells distributed across the geothermal field for details about the stress state revealed by indicators such as borehole breakouts and drilling-induced tensile fractures. Previous stress analyses at Coso have ignored deviated well sections, since their interpretation for the orientation of the stress tensor is non-unique with respect to varying stress magnitudes. Using interpreted borehole-induced structures, we perform a grid search over all possible Andersonian stress states and find a best fitting vertical stress tensor for each stress state characterized by principal stress magnitudes. By including deviated well sections and recently drilled wells, we considerably expand the suite of stress measurements in the Coso Geothermal Field. Along individual wells, this analysis also reveals local meter length-scale deviations from the best-fitting mean stress orientation. While most wells show consistent horizontal principal stress orientations with standard deviations of about 10°, other wells show large standard deviations on the order of 25°. Several regions have logged well trajectories with lateral spacing below 1 km. This enables us to trace changes of the stress

  19. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Accuracy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, F.; Pianosi, F.; Hartmann, A. J.; Wagener, T.

    2014-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis aims to characterize the impact that changes in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). It is a valuable diagnostic tool for model understanding and for model improvement, it enhances calibration efficiency, and it supports uncertainty and scenario analysis. It is of particular interest for environmental models because they are often complex, non-linear, non-monotonic and exhibit strong interactions between their parameters. However, sensitivity analysis has to be carefully implemented to produce reliable results at moderate computational cost. For example, sample size can have a strong impact on the results and has to be carefully chosen. Yet, there is little guidance available for this step in environmental modelling. The objective of the present study is to provide guidelines for a robust sensitivity analysis, in order to support modellers in making appropriate choices for its implementation and in interpreting its outcome. We considered hydrological models with increasing level of complexity. We tested four sensitivity analysis methods, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, Method of Morris, a density-based (PAWN) and a variance-based (Sobol) method. The convergence and variability of sensitivity indices were investigated. We used bootstrapping to assess and improve the robustness of sensitivity indices even for limited sample sizes. Finally, we propose a quantitative validation approach for sensitivity analysis based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.

  20. Atmospheric Propagation Modeling Indicates Homing Pigeons use Loft-Specific Infrasonic 'Map' Cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagstrum, J. T.; Baker, L. M.; Spritzer, J. M.; McKenna, M. H.

    2011-12-01

    Pigeons (Columba livia) released at distant sites commonly depart in directions significantly off the actual homeward bearing. Such site-dependent deviations, or biases, for birds from a given loft are generally stable over time, but can also change from hour to hour, day to day, and year to year. At some release sites, birds consistently vanish in random directions and have longer flight times and lower return rates. Release sites characterized by frequent disorientation are not uncommon for pigeon lofts in both Europe and the USA. One such site is the Jersey Hill fire tower in upstate New York located ~120 km W of the Cornell loft in Ithaca. Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill between 1968 and 1987 almost always vanished randomly, although birds from other lofts had little difficulty orienting there. The results for one day, however, stand out: on August 13, 1969, Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill vanished consistently to the NE (r = 0.921; n=7) and returned home after normal flight times. Cornell pigeons released the next day again showed 'normal' behavior for the site and departed randomly. If, in fact, the birds are using acoustic cues to navigate, the long-term acoustic 'dead' zone we propose for Jersey Hill, due to prevailing atmospheric conditions, indicates that the cues are coming from a single, relatively restricted area, most likely surrounding the home loft. We have modeled the transmission of infrasonic waves, presumably coupled to the atmosphere from ocean-generated microseisms (0.14 Hz), between the Cornell loft and a number of release sites using HARPA (Hamiltonian Acoustic Ray-tracing Program for the Atmosphere) and rawinsonde data collected near Albany and Buffalo, NY. The HARPA modeling shows that acoustic signals from the Cornell loft reached Jersey Hill only on a few release days with unusual atmospheric conditions, including August 13, and were launched at angles less than ~2° above horizontal, most likely from steep-sided terrain in

  1. Identifying Indicators of Progress in Thermal Spray Research Using Bibliometrics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, R.-T.; Khor, K. A.; Yu, L.-G.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the research publications on thermal spray in the period of 1985-2015 using the data from Web of Science, Scopus and SciVal®. Bibliometrics analysis was employed to elucidate the country and institution distribution in various thermal spray research areas and to characterize the trends of topic change and technology progress. Results show that China, USA, Japan, Germany, India and France were the top countries in thermal spray research, and Xi'an Jiaotong University, Universite de Technologie Belfort-Montbeliard, Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, ETH Zurich, National Research Council of Canada, University of Limoges were among the top institutions that had high scholarly research output during 2005-2015. The terms of the titles, keywords and abstracts of the publications were analyzed by the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model and visually mapped using the VOSviewer software to reveal the progress of thermal spray technology. It is found that thermal barrier coating was consistently the main research area in thermal spray, and high-velocity oxy-fuel spray and cold spray developed rapidly in the last 10 years.

  2. Analysis of Crosscutting in Model Transformations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Klaas; Tekinerdogan, B.; Nguyen, H.; Aagedal, J.; Neple, T.; Oldevik, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for the analysis of crosscutting in model transformations in the Model Driven Architecture (MDA). Software architectures should be amenable to changes in user requirements and technological platforms. Impact analysis of changes can be based on traceability of

  3. Two sustainable energy system analysis models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Goran Krajacic, Neven Duic; da Graca Carvalho, Maria

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy.......This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy....

  4. Mathematical modeling and analysis of WEDM machining ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Sadhana; Volume 42; Issue 6. Mathematical modeling and analysis ... The present work is mainly focused on the analysis and optimization of the WEDM process parameters of Inconel 625. The four machining ... Response surface methodology was used to develop the experimental models. The parametric ...

  5. Blog Citations as Indicators of the Societal Impact of Research : Content Analysis of Social Sciences Blogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid R. Jamali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes motivations behind social sciences blog posts citing journal articles in order to find out whether blog citations are good indicators for the societal impact or benefits of research. A random sample of 300 social sciences blog posts (out of 1,233 blog posts from ResearchBlogging.org published between 01/01/2012 to 18/06/2014 were subjected to content analysis. The 300 blog posts had 472 references including 424 journal articles from 269 different journals. Sixty‐one (22.68% of all cited journals were from the social sciences and most of the journals with high frequency were highly cited general science journals such as PNAS and Science. Seventy‐five percent of all journals were referenced only once. The average age of articles cited at the time of citation was 5.8 years. Discussion and criticism were the two main categories of motivations. Overall, the study shows the potential of blog citations as an altmetric measure and as a proxy for assessing the research impact. A considerable number of citation motivations in blogs such as disputing a belief, suggesting policies, providing a solution to a problem, reacting to media, criticism and the like seemed to support gaining societal benefits. Societal benefits are considered as helping stimulate new approaches to social issues, or informing public debate and policymaking. Lower self‐citation (compared to some other altmetric measures such as tweets and the fact that blogging involves generating content (i.e. an intellectual process give them an advantage for altmetrics. However, limitations and contextual issues such as disciplinary differences and low uptake of altmetrics, in general, in scholarly communication should not be ignored when using blogs as a data source for altmetrics.

  6. Multivariate Analysis of Countries according to Subdimensions of Human Development and Gender Inequality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selay Giray

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Human Development Index (HDI is an index aiming to measure human development by taking into account a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living. The 2013 Human Development Report presents HDI values and ranks, the Inequality-adjusted HDI the Gender Inequality Index (GII and the Multidimensional Poverty Index. The aim of this study is to evaluate countries according to their similarities and differences using the indicators contained in the 2013 human development report. A figure created in two dimensional space was used by evaluation. Locations of Turkey, OECD and Eurasian countries are analyzed and interpreted elaborately. Multidimensional scaling is a statistical technique provides visual representation of the objects using proximity patterns. The most recent data of countries were analyzed by Multidimensional Scaling analysis (MDS. Stress value obtained from metric multidimensional scaling application was found in desired range. Also it was determined that we can trust the interpretations made of the map. To begin with, comparison by country groups was made, then remarkable points were interpreted on the basis of country. As examination of the map obtained from MDS application with HDI and GII indexes, it was remarked that OECD countries were grouped on the left hand side and Eurasian countries were grouped on the right hand side. Turkey, a member of OECD, located far away from other OECD countries and located closer to Eurasian countries. According to HDI and GII indexes Mexico is closest country to Turkey. Also Mexico is the country, which is perceived similar to Turkey.

  7. An economic cost analysis of emergency department key performance indicators in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Brenda; Jones, Cheryl; McCabe, Aileen; O'Sullivan, Ronan; Wakai, Abel

    2017-06-01

    High quality data is fundamental to using key performance indicators (KPIs) for performance monitoring. However, the resources required to collect high quality data are often significant and should usually be targeted at high priority areas. As part of a study of 11 emergency department (ED) KPIs in Ireland, the primary objective of this study was to estimate the relative cost of collecting the additional minimum data set (MDS) elements for those 11 KPIs. An economic cost analysis focused on 12 EDs in the Republic of Ireland. The resource use data were obtained using two separate focus group interviews. The number of available MDS elements was obtained from a sample of 100 patient records per KPI per participating ED. Unit costs for all resource use were taken at the midpoint of the relevant staff salary scales. An ED would need to spend an estimated additional &OV0556;3561 per month on average to capture all the MDS elements relevant to the 11 KPIs investigated. The additional cost ranges from 14.8 to 39.2%; this range is 13.9-32.3% for small EDs, whereas the range for medium EDs is 11.7-40%. Regional EDs have a higher additional estimated cost to capture all the relevant MDS elements (&OV0556;3907), compared with urban EDs (&OV0556;3353). The additional cost of data collection, contingent on that already collected, required to capture all the relevant MDS elements for the KPIs examined, ranges from 14.8 to 39.2% per KPI, with variation identified between regional and urban hospitals.

  8. Activation analysis of hair as an indicator of contamination of man by environmental trace element pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryabukhin, Yu.S.

    1976-10-01

    The burning of fossil fuel, discharges from metallurgical and chemical plants, the wide use of chemicals, and other human activities, result in releasing into the biosphere large quantities of elements which are found in relatively low concentrations in the human organism. The pollution of the biosphere by such trace elements, and in particular heavy metals, has reached such proportions that on the scale of significance of the factors causing the 'stressed' state of the environment of heavy metals occupy the second place and, according to forecasts, may in the future move on to the first. In the problem of pollution of the biosphere, man himself undoubtedly occupies the central position as a target. The pollution of air, soil and water, the contamination of micro-organisms, plants and animals are certainly growing into a serious threat and leading to heavy losses. However, it would be a real disaster if man himself became contaminated to levels giving rise to large scale harmful somatic or genetic effects. It is therefore an urgent problem today to determine the initial levels of trace elements in man and the extent of his contamination in areas where these elements are expected to show anomalous concentrations. Attention should be paid in the first place to those trace elements which probably play no physiological role, are particularly abundant in the environment, and have high toxicity (arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium, etc.). Moreover, it should be born in mind that in anomalously high concentrations even the physiologically necessary trace elements (copper, zinc, manganese, fluorine, etc.) cause harmful effects. This paper justifies the use of hair samples as a biological indicator of environmental pollutants from physiological and morphological aspect and recommends on sample preparation and analysis methods

  9. Morphologic Analysis of the Normal Right Ventricle Using Three-Dimensional Echocardiography-Derived Curvature Indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addetia, Karima; Maffessanti, Francesco; Muraru, Denisa; Singh, Amita; Surkova, Elena; Mor-Avi, Victor; Badano, Luigi P; Lang, Roberto M

    2018-02-02

    Right ventricular (RV) remodeling involves changes in size, wall thickness, function, and shape. Previous studies have suggested that regional curvature indices (rCI) may be useful for RV shape analysis. The aim of this study was to establish normal three-dimensional echocardiographic values of rCI in a large group of healthy subjects to facilitate future three-dimensional echocardiographic study of adverse RV remodeling. RV endocardial surfaces were reconstructed at end-diastole and end-systole in 245 healthy subjects (mean age, 42 ± 12 years) and analyzed using custom software to calculate mean curvature in six regions: RV inflow tract (RVIT) and RV outflow tract, apex, and body (both divided into free wall and septal regions). Associations with age and gender were studied. The apical free wall was convex, while the septum (apex and body) was more concave than the body free wall. Septal curvature did not change significantly from end-diastole to end-systole. The RV outflow tract and RVIT became flatter from end-diastole to end-systole. In keeping with the "bellows-like" action of RV contraction, the body free wall became flatter, while the apex free wall changed to a more convex surface. There were no intergender differences in rCI. In older subjects (≥55 years of age), the RV free wall and RV outflow tract were flatter, and from end-diastole to end-systole, the RVIT became less flattened and the apex less pointed. These changes suggest that the right ventricle is stiffer in older subjects, with less dynamic contraction of the RVIT and less bellows-like movement. This study established normal three-dimensional echocardiographic values for RV rCI, which are needed to further study RV diastolic dysfunction and remodeling with disease. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Model Checking as Static Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Fuyuan

    fairness problems can be encoded into ALFP as well. To deal with multi-valued model checking problems, we have proposed multivalued ALFP. A Moore Family result for multi-valued ALFP is also established, which ensures the existence and uniqueness of the least model. When the truth values in multi-valued...... of states satisfying a CTL formula can be characterized as the least model of ALFP clauses specifying this CTL formula. The existence of the least model of ALFP clauses is ensured by the Moore Family property of ALFP. Then, we take fairness assumptions in CTL into consideration and have shown that CTL...... ALFP constitute a nite distributive complete lattice, multi-valued ALFP can be reduced to two-valued ALFP. This result enables to implement a solver for multi-valued ALFP by reusing existing solvers for twovalued ALFP. Our ALFP-based technique developed for the two-valued CTL naturally generalizes...

  11. Rapid Analysis Model: Reducing Analysis Time without Sacrificing Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, William W.; Owens, Diana

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the performance technology design process and the fact that the analysis phase is often being eliminated to speed up the process. Proposes a rapid analysis model that reduces time needed for analysis and still ensures more successful value-added solutions that focus on customer satisfaction. (LRW)

  12. Two Alternative Approaches to Modelling the Nonlinear Dynamics of the Composite Economic Indicator

    OpenAIRE

    Konstantin A. Kholodilin

    2002-01-01

    This paper sets up a common unobserved factor model with smooth transition autoregressive dynamics. This model is compared to the already classical common factor model with regime-switching. Both models' in-sample and out-of-sample performance in terms of capturing and predicting the business cycle turning points is evaluated. The comparison of the model-derived probabilities to the NBER business cycle dating shows statistically equivalent in-sample forecasting accuracy of these techniques. T...

  13. Global Biodiversity Indicators Reflect the Modeled Impacts of Protected Area Policy Change

    OpenAIRE

    Costelloe, B.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Nicholson, E.; Mcrae, L.; Collen, B.; Craigie, I. D.; Rondinini, C.

    2016-01-01

    Global biodiversity indicators can be used to measure the status and trends of biodiversity relating to Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) targets. Whether such indicators can support decision makers by distinguishing among policy options remains poorly evaluated. We tested the ability of two CBD indicators, the Living Planet Index and the Red List Index, to reflect projected changes in mammalian populations in sub-Saharan Africa in response to potential policies related to CBD targets ...

  14. Analysis of international approaches which are used at development of theoperational safety performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyigots'kij, O.Yi.; Nosovs'kij, A.V.; Chemeris, Yi.O.

    2009-01-01

    Description of international approaches and experience of the use of theoperational safety performance indicators system is provided for estimationof current status and making a decision on corrections in the operationpractice. The state of development of the operational safety performanceindicators system by the operating organization is overviewed. Thepossibility of application of international approaches during development ofthe integral safety performance indicators system is analyzed. Aims and tasksof future researches are formulated in relation to development of theintegral safety performance indicators system.

  15. A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks. PMID:29529092

  16. Toward a Progress Indicator for Machine Learning Model Building and Data Mining Algorithm Execution: A Position Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Gang

    2017-01-01

    For user-friendliness, many software systems offer progress indicators for long-duration tasks. A typical progress indicator continuously estimates the remaining task execution time as well as the portion of the task that has been finished. Building a machine learning model often takes a long time, but no existing machine learning software supplies a non-trivial progress indicator. Similarly, running a data mining algorithm often takes a long time, but no existing data mining software provides a nontrivial progress indicator. In this article, we consider the problem of offering progress indicators for machine learning model building and data mining algorithm execution. We discuss the goals and challenges intrinsic to this problem. Then we describe an initial framework for implementing such progress indicators and two advanced, potential uses of them, with the goal of inspiring future research on this topic. PMID:29177022

  17. Toward a Progress Indicator for Machine Learning Model Building and Data Mining Algorithm Execution: A Position Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Gang

    2017-12-01

    For user-friendliness, many software systems offer progress indicators for long-duration tasks. A typical progress indicator continuously estimates the remaining task execution time as well as the portion of the task that has been finished. Building a machine learning model often takes a long time, but no existing machine learning software supplies a non-trivial progress indicator. Similarly, running a data mining algorithm often takes a long time, but no existing data mining software provides a nontrivial progress indicator. In this article, we consider the problem of offering progress indicators for machine learning model building and data mining algorithm execution. We discuss the goals and challenges intrinsic to this problem. Then we describe an initial framework for implementing such progress indicators and two advanced, potential uses of them, with the goal of inspiring future research on this topic.

  18. A Structural Model Proposal for Turkish Faculties of Education Regarding ICT Integration Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbulut, Yavuz

    2010-01-01

    A recent survey study with 2515 pre-service teachers suggested an underlying structure to shelter ICT integration indicators. Eleven indicators were extracted, which were Teaching-Learning Methods, E-learning, E-interaction, Learning Communities, Infrastructure, Access, Ease of Use, Technical Assistance, Policy, Special Education and Health. In…

  19. Modeling recreation participants' willingness to substitute using multi-attribute indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yung-Ping (Emilio) Tseng; Robert B. Ditton

    2008-01-01

    A logistic regression was used to predict anglers' resource-substitution decisions based on three dimensions of recreation specialization (behavior, skill and knowledge, and commitment), two dimensions of place attachment (place identity and place dependence), and three demographic indicators. Results indicated that place dependence was the most effective...

  20. Representing Uncertainty on Model Analysis Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Trevor I.

    2016-01-01

    Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model.…

  1. Behavior Analysis of Elderly using Topic Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rieping, K.; Englebienne, G.; Kröse, B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes two new topic models for the analysis of human behavior in homes that are equipped with sensor networks. The models are based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic models and can detect patterns in sensor data in an unsupervised manner. LDA-Gaussian, the first variation of

  2. Health system frameworks and performance indicators in eight countries: A comparative international analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Braithwaite

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Performance indicators are a popular mechanism for measuring the quality of healthcare to facilitate both quality improvement and systems management. Few studies make comparative assessments of different countries’ performance indicator frameworks. This study identifies and compares frameworks and performance indicators used in selected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development health systems to measure and report on the performance of healthcare organisations and local health systems. Countries involved are Australia, Canada, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Scotland and the United States. Methods: Identification of comparable international indicators and analyses of their characteristics and of their broader national frameworks and contexts were undertaken. Two dimensions of indicators – that they are nationally consistent (used across the country rather than just regionally and locally relevant (measured and reported publicly at a local level, for example, a health service – were deemed important. Results: The most commonly used domains in performance frameworks were safety, effectiveness and access. The search found 401 indicators that fulfilled the ‘nationally consistent and locally relevant’ criteria. Of these, 45 indicators are reported in more than one country. Cardiovascular, surgery and mental health were the most frequently reported disease groups. Conclusion: These comparative data inform researchers and policymakers internationally when designing health performance frameworks and indicator sets.

  3. Analysis of indicators to evaluate the industrial parks contribution to sustainable development: Mexican case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastida-Ruiz, E.; Franco Garcia, Maria Maria; Kreiner, I.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper suggested a sustainability indicators framework for industrial parks in contexts where information is weakly reliable or insufficient. The authors tried to cover those gaps and construct an indicators framework by answering the following research questions: can a combination of

  4. Comparative Analysis of Safety Performance Indicators Based on Inductive Loop Detector Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Reza Mamdoohi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Conflicts in traffic stream have been detected by different safety performance indicators. This study aims to empirically investigate the differences between different indicators in detecting rear-end conflicts and assessing the risk in an uninterrupted flow. Micro-level data of a 24-hr traffic stream (including 6,657 vehicles were captured using inductive loop detectors installed on a rural freeway section. Different indicators (Time Headway (H, Time to Collision (TTC, Proportion of Stopping Distance (PSD, Deceleration Rate to Avoid Collision (DRAC and Stopping Distance Index (SDI were used to measure each car following event in a bivalent state (safe/unsafe. Unsafe events associated with each indicator were detected and common unsafe events characterized by different indicators were identified. Temporal distributions of rear-end collision risks associated with each indicator at 15-min intervals were also compared. Finally, the 15-min risk values based on different indicators were categorized and compared across three levels (Low, Medium and High. Data mining and statistical techniques showed that while SDI is the single most conservative indicator, DRAC and TTC detect a few risky events but very equal ones. In almost all conflicts associated with TTC, headway is still lower than the critical threshold. However, there exist considerable risky events based on headway which are still safe according to TTC. Comparison of PSD and TTC also declares that almost all conflicts associated with TTC are also risky according to PSD.

  5. Analysis of Socio-Economic Indicators on Different Bioenergy Case Studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Socio-economic indicators are not fully developed and operational while this is an important aspect of sustainability. Seven case studies were analyzed within the Global-Bio-Pact project covering seven countries and five feedstock types. The 100 indicators that are identified are analyzed and

  6. Model correction factor method for system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Johannesen, Johannes M.

    2000-01-01

    The Model Correction Factor Method is an intelligent response surface method based on simplifiedmodeling. MCFM is aimed for reliability analysis in case of a limit state defined by an elaborate model. Herein it isdemonstrated that the method is applicable for elaborate limit state surfaces on which...... severallocally most central points exist without there being a simple geometric definition of the corresponding failuremodes such as is the case for collapse mechanisms in rigid plastic hinge models for frame structures. Taking as simplifiedidealized model a model of similarity with the elaborate model...... surface than existing in the idealized model....

  7. CMS Data Analysis School Model

    CERN Document Server

    Malik, Sudhir; Cavanaugh, R; Bloom, K; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Klima, B; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the  concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Center), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe , CMS is trying to  engage the collaboration discovery potential and maximize the physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents of CMS, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the caree...

  8. A Program Evaluation Model: Using Bloom's Taxonomy to Identify Outcome Indicators in Outcomes-Based Program Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Rita C.

    2011-01-01

    Outcomes-based program evaluation is a systematic approach to identifying outcome indicators and measuring results against those indicators. One dimension of program evaluation is assessing the level of learner acquisition to determine if learning objectives were achieved as intended. The purpose of the proposed model is to use Bloom's Taxonomy to…

  9. Hedonic price models and indices based on boosting applied to the Dutch housing market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Kagie (Martijn); M.C. van Wezel (Michiel)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractWe create a hedonic price model for house prices for six geographical submarkets in the Netherlands. Our model is based on a recent data mining technique called boosting. Boosting is an ensemble technique that combines multiple models, in our case decision trees, into a combined

  10. Beyond citation analysis: a model for assessment of research impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarli, Cathy C; Dubinsky, Ellen K; Holmes, Kristi L

    2010-01-01

    Is there a means of assessing research impact beyond citation analysis? The case study took place at the Washington University School of Medicine Becker Medical Library. This case study analyzed the research study process to identify indicators beyond citation count that demonstrate research impact. The authors discovered a number of indicators that can be documented for assessment of research impact, as well as resources to locate evidence of impact. As a result of the project, the authors developed a model for assessment of research impact, the Becker Medical Library Model for Assessment of Research. Assessment of research impact using traditional citation analysis alone is not a sufficient tool for assessing the impact of research findings, and it is not predictive of subsequent clinical applications resulting in meaningful health outcomes. The Becker Model can be used by both researchers and librarians to document research impact to supplement citation analysis.

  11. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacz, Artur; St. John, Michael; Brevin, R.J.W.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial...... and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs, and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore co-existence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework...... and remote sensing measurements, was so far not captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we...

  12. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Palacz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom–coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

  13. Studies of seaweeds as indicators of toxic element pollution in Ghana using neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serfor-Armah, Y.

    2006-11-01

    The concentrations of 25 elements namely: AI, As, Br, Ca, Cd, CI, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hf, Hg, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Sb, Sc, Sm, Sr, V and Zn in seven Rhodophyta (red), three Phaeophyta (brown) and five Chlorophyta (green) seaweed species from different areas along the coast of Ghana were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and preconcentration NAA (PNAA). These species potentially could be used as biomonitors and bioremoval agents. The irradiations using thermal and epithermal neutrons were done using the Ghana Research Reactor-I (GHARR-I) facility at Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Kwabenya and the Dalhousie University SLOWPOKE-2 Reactor (DUSR) facilities. Counting was done using both the conventional and anti-coincidence γ ray spectrometry. The PNAA method was developed for the simultaneous extraction of Cd, Cr, Hg, and Zn, as well as Sb and V individually from the seaweed samples. The PNAA method involved the use of a mixture of PAN and TAN chelating agents and PONPE-20 surfactant in cloud point extraction (CPE). The parameters affecting the CPE have been optimized. The recoveries under the optimum conditions of pH 3.7 for V, 6.4 for Sb, 8.6 for Cd, Cr, Hg, and Zn, [PAN/TAN] of 1x10 - 4M, [PONPE-20] of 0.1% (m/v), ionic strength 0.05 M KN 0 3, and a temperature of 41 0 C were generally >96%. The mean detection limits for Cd, Cr, Hg, Sb, V and Zn were 6.0, 3.6, 1.2, 2.8, 1.51 and 2.6 ng/g respectively. The CPE method developed was also used successfully to speciate As(III) and As(V) from the Sargassum vulgare, the seaweed. The maximum extraction of As(III) occurred at a pH of 6.7 and that of As(V) at pH of 3.8. The results indicated that As(III) and As(V) formed only 6.27% of the total arsenic concentration, while the other species of arsenic constitute 93.73%. The precision and accuracy of the INAA and PNAA methods developed were evaluated. Schewart control charts were constructed for internal quality assessment purposes. The results

  14. Indications, Utilization and Complications Following Prostate Biopsy: New York State Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Joshua A; Sedrakyan, Art; Dinerman, Brian; Hsu, Wei-Chun; Mao, Jialin; Hu, Jim C

    2017-04-01

    Uptake of active surveillance and changes in prostate cancer care may affect the utilization of and complications following prostate needle biopsy. We characterized recent trends and risk factors for prostate needle biopsy complications using a statewide, all-payer cohort. We used SPARCS (New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System) to identify prostate needle biopsies performed between 2011 and 2014 via the transrectal and the transperineal approach (9,472 and 421 patients, respectively). We characterized trends in utilization and complications using Poisson regression and the Cochrane-Armitage test. We applied logistic regression to examine predictors of complications within 30 days of prostate needle biopsy. Ambulatory use of prostate needle biopsy decreased with time (p indication for prostate needle biopsy was elevated prostate specific antigen in 53.2% of patients, followed by active surveillance for cancer in 26.7%, abnormal digital rectal examination in 2.6% and atypia in 1.6%. The prostate needle biopsy associated infection rate increased from 2.6% to 3.5% during the study period (p = 0.02). Among the 777 repeat prostate needle biopsies, the complication rate was comparable to that of initial prostate needle biopsy. Preprocedural rectal swab was done in less than 1% of prostate needle biopsies. On multivariable analysis, patient race, procedure year, diabetes (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.29-2.86, p <0.01), transrectal approach (OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.27-9.54, p = 0.02) and recent hospitalization (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.43-2.89, p <0.01) were significantly associated with infection. The median total charge for infectious complications was $4,129 (IQR 711-19,185). Across New York State, infectious complications after prostate needle biopsy have increased over time. With higher complications using the transrectal approach and minimal utilization of targeted antibiotic prophylaxis, further efforts should focus on the evaluation and implementation of these

  15. [Indicators of statin use as a model for qualitative evaluation of chronic disease management in the Local Health Unit Roma B].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaralli, Fabrizio; Summaria, Francesco; Mustilli, Marina; Vasselli, Loredana; D'Urso, Antonio; Degrassi, Flori

    2010-01-01

    In chronic diseases the adherence and persistence to therapeutic treatments are often lower than guidelines said. This leads to a worse therapeutic effect of the treatments and to a misuse in healthcare costs. Our study evaluates the impact of a pharmacoutilization analysis model, derived from the administrative database of the Local Health Unit Roma B. In particularly we calculate some indicators of adherence, persistence, occasional treatment and switch in patients on statins secondary prevention treatment (patients discharged from Hospital with Acute Myocardial Infarction diagnosis). The model that we developed would be successfully used in the cost-effective analysis of other drugs.

  16. Using path analysis to examine causal relationships among balanced scorecard performance indicators for general hospitals: the case of a public hospital system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming-Chin; Tung, Yu-Chi

    2006-01-01

    Examining whether the causal relationships among the performance indicators of the balanced scorecard (BSC) framework exist in hospitals is the aim of this article. Data were collected from all twenty-one general hospitals in a public hospital system and their supervising agency for the 3-year period, 2000-2002. The results of the path analyses identified significant causal relationships among four perspectives in the BSC model. We also verified the relationships among indicators within each perspective, some of which varied as time changed. We conclude that hospital administrators can use path analysis to help them identify and manage leading indicators when adopting the BSC model. However, they should also validate causal relationships between leading and lagging indicators periodically because the management environment changes constantly.

  17. Assessment of classical performance measures and signature indices from Flow Duration Curves for model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ley, Rita; Hellebrand, Hugo; Casper, Markus C.; Fenicia, Fabrizio

    2015-04-01

    The result of model evaluation is strongly influenced by the choice of the used performance measures. There exist a large variety of performance measures, each with its strengths and weaknesses. Although all of them represent the ability of a hydrological model to reproduce observed stream flow, it is unclear which one is most appropriate for specific applications. The objective of this study is to investigate which performance measure is best suited to find a best performing model structure for a single basin out of multiple model structures. We compare the usability of a new performance measure, the Standardized Signature Index Sum, with several classical statistical performance measures and hydrological performance measures like the Root Mean Square Error or the Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency. In contrast to the classical and hydrological performance measures, the Standardized Signature Index Sum is based on the comparison of observed and simulated Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). It combines the performance for different parts of the FDC to one measure considering the whole FDC and therefore the whole hydrograph. For this purpose 12 model structures were generated using the SUPERFLEX modeling framework and applied to 53 meso-scale basins in Rhineland Palatinate (Germany). For all calibrated models based on the 12 model structures and 53 basins, we calculate several performance measures and compare their usability to identify a best performing model structure for each basin. In many cases the classical performance measures and the hydrological performance measures assigned similar values to seemingly different hydrographs simulated with different model structures. Therefore, these measures are not well suited for model comparison. The proposed Standardized Signature Index Sum is more effective in revealing differences between model results. Furthermore, it provides information in which part of the hydrograph and how a model fails. The Signature Index Sum allows for a

  18. Concordance and robustness of quality indicator sets for hospitals: an analysis of routine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stausberg, Jürgen; Halim, Axel; Färber, Robert

    2011-05-18

    Hospitals are increasingly being evaluated with respect to the quality of provided care. In this setting, several indicator sets compete with one another for the assessment of effectiveness and safety. However, there have been few comparative investigations covering different sets. The objective of this study was to answer three questions: How concordant are different indicator sets on a hospital level? What is the effect of applying different reference values? How stable are the positions of a hospital ranking? Routine data were made available to three companies offering the Patient Safety Indicators, an indicator set from the HELIOS Hospital Group, and measurements based on Disease Staging™. Ten hospitals from North Rhine-Westphalia, comprising a total of 151,960 inpatients in 2006, volunteered to participate in this study. The companies provided standard quality reports for the ten hospitals. Composite measures were defined for strengths and weaknesses. In addition to the different indicator sets, different reference values for one set allowed the construction of several comparison groups. Concordance and robustness were analyzed using the non-parametric correlation coefficient and Kendall's W. Indicator sets differing only in the reference values of the indicators showed significant correlations in most of the pairs with respect to weaknesses (maximum r = 0.927, CI 0.714-0.983, p definition of quality, independent of their focus on patient safety, mortality, or length of stay. However, for most of the hospitals, changing the indicator set or the reference value resulted in a shift from the superior to the inferior half of the group or vice versa. Thus, while taken together the indicator sets offer the hospitals complementary pictures of their quality, on an individual basis they do not establish a reliable ranking.

  19. WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS OF LOTIC ECOSYSTEMS FROM UPPER MUREŞ RIVER CATCHMENT AREA USING DIFFERENT BIOTIC INDICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milca PETROVICI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Present paper approach the issue of assessing the water quality of tributaries located in the upper basin of the river Mureş, taking into account changes in the value of biotic indices. In this sense, have been selected the next five biotic indices: Ephemeroptera Plecoptera Trichoptera index (EPT, Total Invertebrates index (T, Chironomidae index (Ch, EPT / Total invertebrates index (EPT / T, EPT / Chironomidae index (EPT / Ch and % Chironomidae index (% Chironomidae. Considering all these indices, it was found existence of a medium to best quality water in Mureş tributaries from Harghita Mountains and a good quality water which comes from the Maramureş Mountains and Transylvania Plateau.

  20. ELEMENTS ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS FOR FIRMS IN NEW NETWORK BASED ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan I., GÂF-DEAC

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Network - as a comprehensive structure - can be considered "unconventional formula" and intercessory actions to reduce transaction costs between operators of composition. Elements of analytical indicators for the business at the new economy concerns: network company related new economy; potential network; internal resources of knowledge; networked learning facilities; external sources of knowledge; network relationships; new intellectual capital; complementarities of knowledge; network global indicators and indicators for corporate networking. In this context, the aim is conceptual preoccupations for commitment guarantee for the establishment in the scientific, economic and managerial Romania's competitive advantage in absolute terms compared to relativity concerns only obtain comparative advantages.

  1. Analysis of radiology business models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Schomer, Donald F

    2013-03-01

    As health care moves to value orientation, radiology's traditional business model faces challenges to adapt. The authors describe a strategic value framework that radiology practices can use to best position themselves in their environments. This simplified construct encourages practices to define their dominant value propositions. There are 3 main value propositions that form a conceptual triangle, whose vertices represent the low-cost provider, the product leader, and the customer intimacy models. Each vertex has been a valid market position, but each demands specific capabilities and trade-offs. The underlying concepts help practices select value propositions they can successfully deliver in their competitive environments. Copyright © 2013 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Combustion instability modeling and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santoro, R.J.; Yang, V.; Santavicca, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States); Sheppard, E.J. [Tuskeggee Univ., Tuskegee, AL (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering

    1995-12-31

    It is well known that the two key elements for achieving low emissions and high performance in a gas turbine combustor are to simultaneously establish (1) a lean combustion zone for maintaining low NO{sub x} emissions and (2) rapid mixing for good ignition and flame stability. However, these requirements, when coupled with the short combustor lengths used to limit the residence time for NO formation typical of advanced gas turbine combustors, can lead to problems regarding unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, as well as the occurrence of combustion instabilities. The concurrent development of suitable analytical and numerical models that are validated with experimental studies is important for achieving this objective. A major benefit of the present research will be to provide for the first time an experimentally verified model of emissions and performance of gas turbine combustors. The present study represents a coordinated effort between industry, government and academia to investigate gas turbine combustion dynamics. Specific study areas include development of advanced diagnostics, definition of controlling phenomena, advancement of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities, and assessment of the current status of our ability to apply these tools to practical gas turbine combustors. The present work involves four tasks which address, respectively, (1) the development of a fiber-optic probe for fuel-air ratio measurements, (2) the study of combustion instability using laser-based diagnostics in a high pressure, high temperature flow reactor, (3) the development of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities for describing combustion instability which will be validated against experimental data, and (4) the preparation of a literature survey and establishment of a data base on practical experience with combustion instability.

  3. Log-Linear Techniques for the Analysis of Categorical Data: A Demonstration with the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salter, Daniel W.

    2003-01-01

    Log-linear analysis (LLA) techniques for categorical variables are demonstrated and evaluated using data from the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Symmetrical LLA and asymmetrical LLA address questions of association and inference, respectively. Configural frequency analysis is examined as a strategy for whole types research. LLA approaches seem…

  4. Laboratory infrastructure driven key performance indicator development using the smart grid architecture model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syed, Mazheruddin H.; Guillo-Sansano, Efren; Blair, Steven M.

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a methodology for collaboratively designing laboratory experiments and developing key performance indicators for the testing and validation of novel power system control architectures in multiple laboratory environments. The contribution makes use of the smart grid architecture...

  5. Priority survey between indicators and analytic hierarchy process analysis for green chemistry technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungjune; Hong, Seokpyo; Ahn, Kilsoo; Gong, Sungyong

    2015-01-01

    This study presents the indicators and proxy variables for the quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies and evaluates the relative importance of each assessment element by consulting experts from the fields of ecology, chemistry, safety, and public health. The results collected were subjected to an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weights of the indicators and the proxy variables. These weights may prove useful in avoiding having to resort to qualitative means in absence of weights between indicators when integrating the results of quantitative assessment by indicator. This study points to the limitations of current quantitative assessment techniques for green chemistry technologies and seeks to present the future direction for quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies.

  6. Stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery in pediatric patients: analysis of indications and outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirza, Bilal; Mønsted, Anne; Jensen, Josephine Harding

    2010-01-01

    We describe indications, outcomes, and risk profiles of fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) and single fraction "radiosurgery" (SRS) in pediatric patients compared to the adult population and evaluate the causal role of SRS and SRT in inducing new neurological complications....

  7. Chronological analysis of architectural and acoustical indices in music performance halls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Youngmin; Siebein, Gary W

    2007-05-01

    This study aims to identify the changes in architectural and acoustical indices in halls for music performance built in the 18th through the 20th Centuries. Seventy-one halls are classified in five specific periods from the Classical Period (1751-1820) to the Contemporary Period (1981-2000) based on chronology in music and architectural acoustics. Architectural indices such as room shape, seating capacity, room volume, balcony configuration, and the like as well as acoustical indices such as RT, EDT, G, C80, IACC, and the like for the halls found in the literature are chronologically tabulated and statistically analyzed to identify trends and relationships in architectural and acoustical design for each of the historical periods identified. Some indices appear correlated with each other.

  8. Concordance and robustness of quality indicator sets for hospitals: an analysis of routine data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Färber Robert

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitals are increasingly being evaluated with respect to the quality of provided care. In this setting, several indicator sets compete with one another for the assessment of effectiveness and safety. However, there have been few comparative investigations covering different sets. The objective of this study was to answer three questions: How concordant are different indicator sets on a hospital level? What is the effect of applying different reference values? How stable are the positions of a hospital ranking? Methods Routine data were made available to three companies offering the Patient Safety Indicators, an indicator set from the HELIOS Hospital Group, and measurements based on Disease Staging™. Ten hospitals from North Rhine-Westphalia, comprising a total of 151,960 inpatients in 2006, volunteered to participate in this study. The companies provided standard quality reports for the ten hospitals. Composite measures were defined for strengths and weaknesses. In addition to the different indicator sets, different reference values for one set allowed the construction of several comparison groups. Concordance and robustness were analyzed using the non-parametric correlation coefficient and Kendall's W. Results Indicator sets differing only in the reference values of the indicators showed significant correlations in most of the pairs with respect to weaknesses (maximum r = 0.927, CI 0.714-0.983, p Conclusions Our results reveal an unsettling lack of concordance in estimates of hospital performance when different quality indicator sets are used. These findings underline the lack of consensus regarding optimal validated measures for judging hospital quality. The indicator sets shared a common definition of quality, independent of their focus on patient safety, mortality, or length of stay. However, for most of the hospitals, changing the indicator set or the reference value resulted in a shift from the superior to the

  9. Generation and analysis of large reliability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Daniel L.; Nicol, David M.

    1990-01-01

    An effort has been underway for several years at NASA's Langley Research Center to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques for reliability analysis to the designers of highly reliable avionic systems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG), a software tool which uses as input a graphical, object-oriented block diagram of the system, is discussed. RMG uses an automated failure modes-effects analysis algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. Also considered is the ASSURE software tool, a parallel processing program which uses the ASSIST modeling language and SURE semi-Markov solution technique. An executable failure modes-effects analysis is used by ASSURE. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that large system architectures can now be analyzed.

  10. Hypersonic - Model Analysis as a Service

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acretoaie, Vlad; Störrle, Harald

    2014-01-01

    Hypersonic is a Cloud-based tool that proposes a new approach to the deployment of model analysis facilities. It is implemented as a RESTful Web service API o_ering analysis features such as model clone detection. This approach allows the migration of resource intensive analysis algorithms from...... monolithic desktop modeling tools to a wide range of mobile and Web-based clients. As a technology demonstrator, a Web application acting as a client for the Hypersonic API has been implemented and made publicly available....

  11. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  12. Early Detection for Dengue Using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra-Amaya, Mayra Elizabeth; Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia; Lizarralde-Bejarano, Diana Paola; Arboleda-Sánchez, Sair

    2016-01-01

    Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places. PMID:28933396

  13. Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor I. Smith

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao’s original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.

  14. Diet of spotted bats (Euderma maculatum) in Arizona as indicated by fecal analysis and stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We assessed diet of spotted bats (Euderma maculatum (J.A. Allen, 1891)) by visual analysis of bat feces and stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope analysis of bat feces, wing, hair, and insect prey. We collected 33 fecal samples from spotted bats and trapped 3755 insect...

  15. Research citation analysis of nursing academics in Canada: identifying success indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hack, Thomas F; Crooks, Dauna; Plohman, James; Kepron, Emma

    2010-11-01

    This article is a report of a citation analysis of research publications by Canadian nursing academics. Citation analysis can yield objective criteria for assessing the value of published research and is becoming increasingly popular as an academic evaluation tool in universities around the world. Citation analysis is useful for examining the research performance of academic researchers and identifying leaders among them. The journal publication records of 737 nursing academics at 33 Canadian universities and schools of nursing were subject to citation analysis using the Scopus database. Three primary types of analysis were performed for each individual: number of citations for each journal publication, summative citation count of all published papers and the Scopus h-index. Preliminary citation analysis was conducted from June to July 2009, with the final analysis performed on 2 October 2009 following e-mail verification of publication lists. The top 20 nursing academics for each of five citation categories are presented: the number of career citations for all publications, number of career citations for first-authored publications, most highly cited first-authored publications, the Scopus h-index for all publications and the Scopus h-index for first-authored publications. Citation analysis metrics are useful for evaluating the research performance of academic researchers in nursing. Institutions are encouraged to protect the research time of successful and promising nursing academics, and to dedicate funds to enhance the research programmes of underperforming academic nursing groups. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Modification indices for the 2-pl and the nominal response model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, it is shown that various violations of the 2-PL model and the nominal response model can be evaluated using the Lagrange multiplier test or the equivalent efficient score test. The tests presented here focus on violation of local stochastic independence and insufficient capture of the

  17. Ecological theories and indicators in economic models of biodiversity loss and conservation: a critical review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  18. Ecological Theories and Indicators in Economic Models of Biodiversity Loss and Conservation: A Critical Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  19. Integration of Tidal Prism Model and HSPF for simulating indicator bacteria in coastal watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Rose S.; Rifai, Hanadi S.; Petersen, Christina M.

    2017-09-01

    Coastal water quality is strongly influenced by tidal fluctuations and water chemistry. There is a need for rigorous models that are not computationally or economically prohibitive, but still allow simulation of the hydrodynamics and bacteria sources for coastal, tidally influenced streams and bayous. This paper presents a modeling approach that links a Tidal Prism Model (TPM) implemented in an Excel-based modeling environment with a watershed runoff model (Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN, HSPF) for such watersheds. The TPM is a one-dimensional mass balance approach that accounts for loading from tidal exchange, runoff, point sources and bacteria die-off at an hourly time step resolution. The novel use of equal high-resolution time steps in this study allowed seamless integration of the TPM and HSPF. The linked model was calibrated to flow and E. Coli data (for HSPF), and salinity and enterococci data (for the TPM) for a coastal stream in Texas. Sensitivity analyses showed the TPM to be most influenced by changes in net decay rates followed by tidal and runoff loads, respectively. Management scenarios were evaluated with the developed linked models to assess the impact of runoff load reductions and improved wastewater treatment plant quality and to determine the areas of critical need for such reductions. Achieving water quality standards for bacteria required load reductions that ranged from zero to 90% for the modeled coastal stream.

  20. Studies of seaweeds as an indicators of toxic element pollution in Ghana using neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serfor-Armah, Y.

    2006-01-01

    The concentrations of 25 elements namely: AI, As, Br, Ca, Cd, CI, Co, Cu, Fe, Hf, Hg, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Sb, Sc, Sm, Sr, V and Zn in seven Rhodophyta (red), three Phaeophyta (brown) and five Chlorophyta (green) seaweed species from different areas along the coast of Ghana were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and preconcentration NAA (PNAA). These species potentially could be used as biomonitors and bioremoval agents. The irradiations using thermal and epithermal neutrons were done using the Ghana Research Reactor-1 (GHARR-I) facility at Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Kwabenya and the Dalhousie University SLOWPOKE-2 Reactor (DUSR) facilities. Counting was done using both the conventional and anti-coincidence γ- ray spectrometry. The PNAA method was developed for the simultaneous extraction of Cd, Cr,