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Sample records for modelled fire season

  1. Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

    2018-07-01

    Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re

  2. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Platt

    Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

  3. Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  4. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

    2015-03-01

    Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

  5. Boreal forest fires in 1997 and 1998: a seasonal comparison using transport model simulations and measurement data

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    N. Spichtinger

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fire emissions have a strong impact on the concentrations of trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the influence of boreal forest fire emissions on the atmospheric composition, the fire seasons of 1997 and 1998 are compared in this paper. Fire activity in 1998 was very strong, especially over Canada and Eastern Siberia, whereas it was much weaker in 1997. According to burned area estimates the burning in 1998 was more than six times as intense as in 1997. Based on hot spot locations derived from ATSR (Along Track Scanning Radiometer data and official burned area data, fire emissions were estimated and their transport was simulated with a Lagrangian tracer transport model. Siberian and Canadian forest fire tracers were distinguished to investigate the transport of both separately. The fire emissions were transported even over intercontinental distances. Due to the El Niño induced meteorological situation, transport from Siberia to Canada was enhanced in 1998. Siberian fire emissions were transported towards Canada and contributed concentrations more than twice as high as those due to Canada's own CO emissions by fires. In 1998 both tracers arrive at higher latitudes over Europe, which is due to a higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index in 1998. The simulated emission plumes are compared to CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory CO2 and CO data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS aerosol index (AI data and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME tropospheric NO2 and HCHO columns. All the data show clearly enhanced signals during the burning season of 1998 compared to 1997. The results of the model simulation are in good agreement with ground-based as well as satellite-based measurements.

  6. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  7. A statistical model for forecasting hourly ozone levels during fire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shiyuan (Sharon) Zhong; Annie Esperanza; Leland Tarnay; Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin

    2009-01-01

    Concerns about smoke from large high-intensity and managed low intensity fires have been increasing during the past decade. Because smoke from large high-intensity fires are known to contain and generate secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone precursors, the effect of fires on air quality in the southern Sierra Nevada is a serious management...

  8. Fire Safety During the Holiday Season | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter is here, and that means holiday decorations, a warm hearth, and (hopefully) plenty of homecooked meals. Unfortunately, winter also brings numerous fire hazards both at work and around the house. This year, as you shop, decorate, and celebrate, keep these safety tips in mind to ensure a safe and enjoyable holiday season.

  9. Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

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    Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of

  10. Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Joaquín Bedia; Nicola Golding; Ana Casanueva; Maialen Iturbide; Carlo Buontempo; Jose Manuel Gutiérrez

    2018-01-01

    Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-var...

  11. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

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    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  12. Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland

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    Tineke Kraaij

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed ‘recruitment’. Factors (in decreasing order of importance affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire and fire return interval (>7 years had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2–3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting

  13. Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraaij, Tineke; Cowling, Richard M; van Wilgen, Brian W; Rikhotso, Diba R; Difford, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed 'recruitment'). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2-3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid

  14. Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland

    OpenAIRE

    Tineke Kraaij; Richard M. Cowling; Brian W. van Wilgen; Diba R. Rikhotso; Mark Difford

    2017-01-01

    Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South A...

  15. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  16. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    OpenAIRE

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  17. Post-fire vegetation behaviour in large burnt scars from 2005 fire season in Spain

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    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; DaCamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfires have a wide diversity of impacts on landscape which, in turn, depend on the interaction of fire regimes (e.g. intensity, extent, frequency) and the response of vegetation to them in short and long-terms. The increase in erosion rates and the loss of nutrients by runoff in the first months following the fire are among the major impacts of wildfires. A minimum of 30% of vegetation cover is enough to protect soils against erosion but vegetation may require a long period to reach this threshold after severe fires. Since erosion risk is strongly linked to vegetation recovery rates, post-fire vegetation monitoring becomes crucial in land management. Fire regimes in the Mediterranean have been changing in the past decades due to modifications in both socio-economic and climate patterns. Although many vegetation species in Mediterranean ecosystems are adapted to wildfires, changes in fire regime characteristics affect the ability of ecosystems to recover to their previous state. In Spain, fire is an important driver of changes in landscape composition, leading to dominance of shrubland following fire and to a major decrease of pine woodlands (Viedma et al., 2006). Remote sensing is a powerful tool in land management, allowing vegetation monitoring on large spatial scales for relatively long periods of time. In order to assess vegetation dynamics, monthly NDVI data from 1998-2009 from SPOT/VEGETATION at 1km spatial resolution over the Iberian Peninsula were used. This work focuses on 2005 fire season in Spain, which registered the highest amount of burnt area since 1994, with more than 188000 ha burnt. Burnt scars in this fire season were identified by cluster analysis. Post-fire vegetation recovery was assessed based on the monoparametric model developed by Gouveia et al. (2010) that was applied to four large scars located in different geographical settings with different land cover characteristics. While the two northern regions presented fast recovery, in the

  18. Modeling of compartment fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathiah, P.; Siccama, A.; Visser, D.; Komen, E.

    2011-01-01

    Fire accident in a containment is a serious threat to nuclear reactors. Fire can cause substantial loss to life and property. The risk posed by fire can also exceed the risk from internal events within a nuclear reactor. Numerous research efforts have been performed to understand and analyze the phenomenon of fire in nuclear reactor and its consequences. Modeling of fire is an important subject in the field of fire safety engineering. Two approaches which are commonly used in fire modeling are zonal modeling and field modeling. The objective of this work is to compare zonal and field modeling approach against a pool fired experiment performed in a well-confined compartment. Numerical simulations were performed against experiments, which were conducted within PRISME program under the framework of OECD. In these experiments, effects of ventilation flow rate on heat release rate in a confined and mechanically ventilated compartment is investigated. Time dependent changes in gas temperature and oxygen mass fraction were measured. The trends obtained by numerical simulation performed using zonal model and field model compares well with experiments. Further validation is needed before this code can be used for fire safety analyses. (author)

  19. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  20. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  1. Fire Models and Design Fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Annemarie

    The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... carried out by Carleton University and NRC-IRC performed on seven different types of fire loads representing commercial premises, comprise the tests used for the study. The results show that for some of the room test the heat release rate increased due to thermal feedback compared to free burn for a pre......-flashover fire. Two phenomena were observed, that relate well to theory was found. In an incipient phase the heat release rate rose with the temperature of the smoke layer/enclosure boundaries. This increase was also found to depend on the flammability properties of the burning object. The results also...

  2. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  3. Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

    2016-01-01

    The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

  4. Forest fires and lightning activity during the outstanding 2003 and 2005 fire seasons

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    Russo, Ana; Ramos, Alexandre; Trigo, Ricardo

    2013-04-01

    Wildfires in southern Europe cause frequent extensive economical and ecological losses and, even human casualties. Comparatively to other Mediterranean countries, Portugal is the country with more burnt area and fires per unit area in the last decade, mainly during the summer season (Pereira et al., 2011). According to the fire records available, between 1980 and 2009, wildfires have affected over 3 million hectares in Portugal (JRC, 2011), which corresponds to approximately a third of the Portuguese Continental territory. The main factors that influence fire ignition and propagation are: (1) the presence of fuel (i.e. vegetation); (2) climate and weather; (3) socioeconomic conditions that affect land use/land cover patterns, fire-prevention and fire-fighting capacity and (4) topography. Specifically, weather (e.g. wind, temperature, precipitation, humidity, and lightning occurrence) plays an important role in fire behavior, affecting both ignition and spread of wildfires. Some countries have a relatively large fraction of fires caused by lightning, e.g. northwestern USA, Canada, Russia (). In contrast, Portugal has only a small percentage of fire records caused by lightning. Although significant doubts remain for the majority of fires in the catalog since they were cataloged without a likely cause. The recent years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly outstanding for fire activity in Portugal, registering, respectively, total burned areas of 425 726 ha and 338 262 ha. However, while the 2003 was triggered by an exceptional heatwave that struck the entire western Europe, the 2005 fire season registered was coincident with one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century. In this work we have used mainly two different databases: 1) the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) which is representative of rural fires that have occurred in Continental Portugal, 2001-2011, with the original data provided by the Autoridade Florestal Nacional (AFN, 2011); 2) lightning

  5. Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Bedia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-variable fire danger indices, calculated through the combination of different model output variables. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predictions of one of the most widely applied of such indices (the Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI is sufficient to inform management decisions, and we examine various methodological aspects regarding the calibration of model outputs prior to its verification and operational applicability. We find that there is significant skill in predicting above average summer FWI in parts of SE Europe at 1 month lead time, but poor skill elsewhere. These results are largely linked to the predictability of relative humidity. Moreover, practical recommendations are given for the use of empirical quantile mapping in probabilistic seasonal FWI forecasts. Furthermore, we show how researchers, fire managers and other stakeholders can take advantage of a new open-source climate service in order to undertake all the necessary steps for data download, post-processing, analysis and verification in a straightforward and fully reproducible manner. Keywords: Climate impact indicators, Quantile mapping, Bias correction, System 4, Fire danger, Seasonal forecasting

  6. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  7. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasa, J; Valasek, L; Weisenpacher, P; Halada, L

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  8. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

    2013-02-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  9. Ecological consequences of alternative fuel reduction treatments in seasonally dry forests: the national fire and fire surrogate study

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. McIver; C.J. Fettig

    2010-01-01

    This special issue of Forest Science features the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study (FFS), a niultisite, multivariate research project that evaluates the ecological consequences of prescribed fire and its mechanical surrogates in seasonally dry forests of the United States. The need for a comprehensive national FFS study stemmed from concern that information on...

  10. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  11. 2013 Annual Report: Fire Modeling Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes; Faith Ann Heinsch; Kristine M. Lee

    2014-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS), is a national and international resource for fire managers. Located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory (Fire Lab) in Montana, FMI helps managers utilize fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the...

  12. Model of large pool fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fay, J.A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)]. E-mail: jfay@mit.edu

    2006-08-21

    A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.

  13. Model of large pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fay, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables

  14. Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating

  15. Ventilation system in fire modelization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordero Garcia, S.

    2012-01-01

    There is a model of fire in an enclosure formed by two rooms. In one of them, it will cause the fire and check how the system of ventilation in different configurations responds. In addition, the behavior of selected targets, which will be a configuration of cables similar to those found in nuclear power stations will be analyzed.

  16. Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs

  17. Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2008-01-01

    A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

  18. Analytical model for cable tray fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.K.

    1975-09-01

    A model for cable tray fires based on buoyant plume theory is presented. Using the model in conjunction with empirical data on size of natural fires and burning rate of cellulosic materials, estimates are made of the heat flux as a function of vertical and horizontal distance from a tray fire. Both local fires and fires extending along a significant length of tray are considered. For the particular set of fire parameters assumed in the calculations, the current tray separation criteria of five feet vertical and three feet horizontal are found to be marginal for local fires and too small to prevent fire spread for extended tray fires. 8 references. (auth)

  19. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  20. Model of multiroom fire spread

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Takeyoshi.

    1983-01-01

    This paper presents a refined version of a mathematical model for predicting the hot gas flow induced by fires in multiroom structures. Two layer zone modeling approach is used in the mathematical formulation of the model. Some of the results of sample calculations of the model are also given for a couple of model structures

  1. Heterogeneity in fire severity within early season and late season prescribed burns in a mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, E.E.; Keeley, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Structural heterogeneity in forests of the Sierra Nevada was historically produced through variation in fire regimes and local environmental factors. The amount of heterogeneity that prescription burning can achieve might now be more limited owing to high fuel loads and increased fuel continuity. Topography, woody fuel loading, and vegetative composition were quantified in plots within replicated early and late season burn units. Two indices of fire severity were evaluated in the same plots after the burns. Scorch height ranged from 2.8 to 25.4 m in early season plots and 3.1 to 38.5 m in late season plots, whereas percentage of ground surface burned ranged from 24 to 96% in early season plots and from 47 to 100% in late season plots. Scorch height was greatest in areas with steeper slopes, higher basal area of live trees, high percentage of basal area composed of pine, and more small woody fuel. Percentage of area burned was greatest in areas with less bare ground and rock cover (more fuel continuity), steeper slopes, and units burned in the fall (lower fuel moisture). Thus topographic and biotic factors still contribute to the abundant heterogeneity in fire severity with prescribed burning, even under the current high fuel loading conditions. Burning areas with high fuel loads in early season when fuels are moister may lead to patterns of heterogeneity in fire effects that more closely approximate the expected patchiness of historical fires.

  2. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  3. Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and

  4. Influence of savanna fire on Australian monsoon season precipitation and circulation as simulated using a distributed computing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Amanda H.; Abramson, David; Görgen, Klaus; Beringer, Jason; Uotila, Petteri

    2007-10-01

    Fires in the Australian savanna have been hypothesized to affect monsoon evolution, but the hypothesis is controversial and the effects have not been quantified. A distributed computing approach allows the development of a challenging experimental design that permits simultaneous variation of all fire attributes. The climate model simulations are distributed around multiple independent computer clusters in six countries, an approach that has potential for a range of other large simulation applications in the earth sciences. The experiment clarifies that savanna burning can shape the monsoon through two mechanisms. Boundary-layer circulation and large-scale convergence is intensified monotonically through increasing fire intensity and area burned. However, thresholds of fire timing and area are evident in the consequent influence on monsoon rainfall. In the optimal band of late, high intensity fires with a somewhat limited extent, it is possible for the wet season to be significantly enhanced.

  5. Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

    2009-01-01

    Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

  6. Impact of forest fires on particulate matter and ozone levels during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 fire seasons in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, V; Miranda, A I; Carvalho, A; Schaap, M; Borrego, C; Sá, E

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this work is to estimate the impact of forest fires on air pollution applying the LOTOS-EUROS air quality modeling system in Portugal for three consecutive years, 2003-2005. Forest fire emissions have been included in the modeling system through the development of a numerical module, which takes into account the most suitable parameters for Portuguese forest fire characteristics and the burnt area by large forest fires. To better evaluate the influence of forest fires on air quality the LOTOS-EUROS system has been applied with and without forest fire emissions. Hourly concentration results have been compared to measure data at several monitoring locations with better modeling quality parameters when forest fire emissions were considered. Moreover, hourly estimates, with and without fire emissions, can reach differences in the order of 20%, showing the importance and the influence of this type of emissions on air quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Ecological effects of prescribed fire season: a literature review and synthesis for managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric E. Knapp; Becky L. Estes; Carl N. Skinner

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed burning may be conducted at times of the year when fires were infrequent historically, leading to concerns about potential adverse effects on vegetation and wildlife. Historical and prescribed fire regimes for different regions in the continental United States were compared and literature on season of prescribed burning synthesized. In regions and vegetation...

  8. A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

    2004-01-01

    Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

  9. Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

    1998-01-01

    A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

  10. Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

    2016-06-05

    South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. The outstanding synergy between drought, heatwaves and fuel on the 2007 Southern Greece exceptional fire season

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Liberato, Margarida L.R.; Bastos, Ana; Koutsias, Nikos; Trigo, Ricardo

    2016-01-01

    The fire season of 2007 was particularly devastating for Greece, achieving the new all-time record of estimated burnt area (225,734. ha) since 1980. The season was remarkably severe in Peloponnese Peninsula, in southern continental Greece, being considered the most extreme natural disaster in the

  12. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick W. Bratten

    1982-01-01

    A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

  13. Seasonal Variations of Atmospheric CO2 over Fire Affected Regions Based on GOSAT Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Matsunaga, T.

    2016-12-01

    Abstract: The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions released from biomass burning significantly affect the temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on a long-term (July 2009-June 2015) retrieved datasets by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the seasonal cycle and interannual variations of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) in four fire affected continental regions were investigated. The results showed Northern Africa had the largest seasonal variations after removing its regional long-term trend of XCO2 with peak-to-peak amplitude of 6.2 ppm within the year, higher than central South America (2.4 ppm), Southern Africa (3.8 ppm) and Australia (1.7 ppm). The detrended regional XCO2 was found to be positively correlated with the fire CO2 emissions during fire activity period and negatively correlated with vegetation photosynthesis activity with different seasonal variabilities. Northern Africa recorded the largest change of seasonal variations of detrended XCO2 with a total of 12.8 ppm during fire seasons, higher than central South America, Southern Africa and Australia with 5.4 ppm, 6.7 ppm and 2.2 ppm, respectively. During fire episode, the positive detrended XCO2 was noticed during June-November in central South America, December-June in Northern Africa, May-November in Southern Africa. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the variations of detrended XCO2 and fire CO2 emissions from GFED4 (Global Fire Emissions Database v4) achieved best correlations in Southern Africa (R=0.77, p<0.05). Meanwhile, Southern Africa also experienced a significant negative relationship between the variations of detrended XCO2 and vegetation activity (R=-0.84, p<0.05). This study revealed that fire CO2 emissions and vegetation activity contributed greatly to the seasonal variations of GOSAT XCO2 dataset.

  14. Recovery Time After a Late-Dry Season Fire: the Effect on Fluxes, Surface Properties and Vegetation Green-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, M. V.; D'Odorico, P.; Scanlon, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    Large regions of Africa burn on an annual basis. These fires damage vegetation, change surface albedo and modify the hydrologic cycle. Quantifying the magnitude and persistence of these changes is key in understanding the complex ways in which fire affects ecosystem functioning at smaller scales and will inform ongoing modeling efforts. We report the results of a field study in a semi-arid savanna in northern Botswana during the transition from dry to wet season (Oct-Dec) in 2012 and 2013. The goals of this study were to: (1) characterize the multifaceted effect that late dry-season fires have on fluxes and radiative surface processes during green-up, and (2) describe the timescales over which these variables recover to non-burnt levels. Our study synthesizes a suite of data, including flux tower measurements, vegetation sampling, time-lapse photography and concurrent remotely sensed variables over plots with variable burn patterns. Albedo decreased immediately after fire, converging on unburned values 10 days post-burn. The magnitude and direction of this response was comparable to the albedo change elicited by strong rainfall events. Soil temperature and soil heat flux were not significantly modified by fire. Carbon fluxes showed no discernible difference from an unburned control site immediately after fire. There was a small burst in ecosystem respiration at immediately following the first post-fire rainfall event, returning to baseline values after 3 days. Persistent CO2 release, which we attribute to soil respiration, occurred for 10 days after successive strong wetting events, confirming the centrality of available moisture in determining ecosystem function. Fire delayed the green-up in some plots, but this effect was variable and short-lived. One month after fire there was no evidence of a difference in ground observations of greenness between burnt and control plots or plots that differed in their time of burning. We attribute the relatively ephemeral

  15. Impact of forest fires on particulate matter and ozone levels during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 fire seasons in portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martins, V.; Miranda, A.I.; Carvalho, A.; Schaap, M.; Borrego, C.; Sá, E.

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this work is to estimate the impact of forest fires on air pollution applying the LOTOS-EUROS air quality modeling system in Portugal for three consecutive years, 2003-2005. Forest fire emissions have been included in the modeling system through the development of a numerical

  16. Fire Modeling Institute 2011 Annual Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes

    2012-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a part of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, provides a bridge between scientists and managers. The mission of FMI is to bring the best available science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear on fire-related management issues across the nation. Resource management...

  17. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time

  18. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time.

  19. Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-03-01

    Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

  20. Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

  1. Combustion efficiency and emission factors for wildfire-season fires in mixed conifer forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Urbanski

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In the US, wildfires and prescribed burning present significant challenges to air regulatory agencies attempting to achieve and maintain compliance with air quality regulations. Fire emission factors (EF are essential input for the emission models used to develop wildland fire emission inventories. Most previous studies quantifying wildland fire EF of temperate ecosystems have focused on emissions from prescribed burning conducted outside of the wildfire season. Little information is available on EF for wildfires in temperate forests of the conterminous US. The goal of this work is to provide information on emissions from wildfire-season forest fires in the northern Rocky Mountains, US. In August 2011, we deployed airborne chemistry instruments and sampled emissions over eight days from three wildfires and a prescribed fire that occurred in mixed conifer forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. We measured the combustion efficiency, quantified as the modified combustion efficiency (MCE, and EF for CO2, CO, and CH4. Our study average values for MCE, EFCO2, EFCO, and EFCH4 were 0.883, 1596 g kg−1, 135 g kg−1, 7.30 g kg−1, respectively. Compared with previous field studies of prescribed fires in temperate forests, the fires sampled in our study had significantly lower MCE and EFCO2 and significantly higher EFCO and EFCH4. The fires sampled in this study burned in areas reported to have moderate to heavy components of standing dead trees and down dead wood due to insect activity and previous fire, but fuel consumption data was not available. However, an analysis of MCE and fuel consumption data from 18 prescribed fires reported in the literature indicates that the availability of coarse fuels and conditions favorable for the combustion of these fuels favors low MCE fires. This analysis suggests that fuel composition was an important factor contributing to the low MCE of the fires measured in this study. This study only measured EF for CO2, CO

  2. Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere–fire numerical model

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In t...

  3. Towards Experimental Operational Fire Weather Prediction at Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales for Alaska Using the NMME Hindcasts and Realtime Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampath, A.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; York, A.; Peng, P.; Brettschneider, B.; Thoman, R.; Jandt, R.; Ziel, R.; Branson, G.; Strader, M. H.; Alden, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The summer 2004 and 2015 wildfires in Alaska were the two largest fire seasons on record since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned while the 2015 wildfire season resulted in 5.2 million acres burned. In addition to the logistical cost of fighting fires and the loss of infrastructure, wildfires also lead to dangerous air quality in Alaska. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Advanced weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season are particularly needed by fire managers. However, there are no operational seasonal products currently for the Alaska region. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Earlier insight of both lightening and fuel conditions would assist fire managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the state-of-the-art NMME (1982-2017) climate predictions were used to compute the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS). The CFFWIS is used by fire managers to forecast forest fires in Alaska. NMME forecast (March and May) based Buildup Index (BUI) values were underestimated compared to BUI based on reanalysis and station data, demonstrating the necessity for bias correction. Post processing of NMME data will include bias correction using the quantile mapping technique. This study will provide guidance as to the what are the best available products for anticipating the fire season.

  4. Effect of fire season, fire frequency, rainfall and management on fire intensity in savanna vegetation in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, N

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, by documenting fuel loads, fuel moisture contents, rates of fire spread and the heat yields of fuel in 956 experimental plot burns over 21 years. 3. Individual fires were conducted in five different months (February...

  5. Wildfire Dynamics and Occasional Precipitation during Active Fire Season in Tropical Lowland of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna Bahadur Bhujel

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Occasional precipitation plays a vital role in reducing the effect of wildfire. This precipitation is especially important for countries like Nepal, where wildfires are a common seasonal event. Approximately 0.1 million hectare of forest area is affected annually due to wildfires in active fire season. The study on the relation of these forms of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence is still lacking. This research was objectively carried out to examine the correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spector-Radiometer (MODIS satellite images and precipitation records for 15 years gathered from Department of Hydrology and Metrology were used as input data for this study. The images were analyzed by using ArcGIS function while the precipitation records were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS program. The linear regression model was applied to find correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Analysis revealed decreasing trend of precipitation in study area. We found significant correlation (p<0.05 of precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Findings will be useful for policy makers, implementers and researchers to manage wildfire in sustainable basis.

  6. Fire decreases arthropod abundance but increases diversity: Early and late season prescribed fire effects in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrenberg, Scott; Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Groth, Eric; Keeley, Jon E.

    2006-01-01

    Prior to fire suppression in the 20th century, the mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., historically burned in frequent fires that typically occurred during the late summer and early fall. Fire managers have been attempting to restore natural ecosystem processes through prescription burning, and have often favored burning during the fall in order to mimic historical fire regimes. Increasingly, however, prescription burning is also being done during the late spring and early summer in order to expand the window of opportunity for needed fuel reduction burning. The effect of prescribed fires outside of the historical fire season on forest arthropods is not known. The objective of this study was to compare the short-term effects of prescribed fires ignited in the early and late fire season on forest floor arthropods. Arthropod abundance and diversity were assessed using pitfall trapping in replicated burn units in Sequoia National Park, California. Overall, abundance of arthropods was lower in the burn treatments than in the unburned control. However, diversity tended to be greater in the burn treatments. Fire also altered the relative abundances of arthropod feeding guilds. No significant differences in arthropod community structure were found between early and late season burn treatments. Instead, changes in the arthropod community appeared to be driven largely by changes in fuel loading, vegetation, and habitat heterogeneity, all of which differed more between the burned and unburned treatments than between early and late season burn treatments.

  7. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  8. Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

    2011-01-01

    Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

  9. Seasonal Variation and Ecosystem Dependence of Emission Factors for Selected Trace Gases and PM2.5 for Southern African Savanna Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korontzi, S.; Ward, D. E.; Susott, R. A.; Yokelson, R. J.; Justice, C. O.; Hobbs, P. V.; Smithwick, E. A. H.; Hao, W. M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we present the first early dry season (early June-early August) emission factor measurements for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (Ca), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particulates with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (pM2.5) for southern African grassland and woodland fires. Seasonal emission factors for grassland fires correlate linearly with the proportion of green grass, used as a surrogate for the fuel moisture content, and are higher for products of incomplete combustion in the early part of the dry season compared with later in the dry season. Models of emission factors for NMHC and PM(sub 2.5) versus modified combustion efficiency (MCE) are statistically different in grassland compared with woodland ecosystems. We compare predictions based on the integration of emissions factors from this study, from the southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative 1992 (SAFARI-92), and from SAFARI-2000 with those based on the smaller set of ecosystem-specific emission factors to estimate the effects of using regional-average rather than ecosystem-specific emission factors. We also test the validity of using the SAFARI-92 models for emission factors versus MCE to predict the early dry season emission factors measured in this study. The comparison indicates that the largest discrepancies occur at the low end (0.907) and high end (0.972) of MCE values measured in this study. Finally, we combine our models of MCE versus proportion of green grass for grassland fires with emission factors versus MCE for selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds measured in the SAFARI-2000 campaign to derive the first seasonal emission factors for these compounds. The results of this study demonstrate that seasonal variations in savanna fire emissions are important and should be considered in modeling emissions at regional to continental scales.

  10. Fire Propagation Tracing Model in the Explicit Treatment of Events of Fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Jun Eon

    2010-01-01

    The fire propagation model in a fire PSA has not been considered analytically instead a simplified analyst's intuition was used to consider the fire propagation path. A fire propagation equation is developed to trace all the propagation paths in the fire area in which a zone is defined to identify various fire ignition sources. An initiation of fire is assumed to take place in a zone. Then, the propagation is modeled with a Boolean equation. Since the explicit fire PSA modeling requires an exclusive event set to sum up the..., exclusive event sets are derived from the fire propagation equation. As an example, we show the exclusive set for a 2x3 rectangular fire zone. Also, the applicability the developed fire equation is discussed when the number of zone increases including the limitation of the explicit fire PSA modeling method

  11. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  12. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  13. Seasonal performance and energy costs of oil or gas-fired boilers and furnaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berlad, A.L.; Lin, H.C.; Batey, J.; Salzano, F.J.; Yu, W.S.; Hoppe, R.J.; Allen, T.

    1977-03-01

    The seasonal operating cost of a small oil or gas-fired boiler or furnace depends upon the intrinsic merits of the device itself, the appropriateness of its capacity and cycle characteristics to the imposed load conditions, the weather characteristics and heat loss characteristics of the building being heated, and the control philosophy employed. The current study provides the bases for comparing quantitatively the seasonal operating costs of various specific space heating and/or domestic hot water systems, as influenced by the device specifics and device interaction with the space conditioned system that it serves. The resulting formalism is applied to various space-heating systems. Quantitative cost comparisons are presented.

  14. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1982-01-01

    Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

  15. Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed

  16. Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

    2006-01-01

    Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel

  17. Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. C. Tran

    1994-01-01

    This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...

  18. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  19. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories' participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia's participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants

  20. A Malthusian Model for all Seasons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharp, Paul Richard; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    It has become popular to argue (e.g. Clark 2007) that all societies were Malthusian until about 1800. At the same time, the phenomenon of surplus labour is well-documented for historical (as well as modern) pre-industrial societies. This study discusses the paradox of surplus labour in a Malthusian...... economy. Inspired by the work of Boserup (1965) and others, and in contrast to the Lewis (1954) approach, we suggest that the phenomenon of surplus labour is best understood through an acceptance of the importance of seasonality in agriculture. Boserup observed that the harvest season was invariably...... associated with labour shortages (the high-season bottleneck on production), although there might be labour surplus during the low season. We introduce the concept of seasonality into a stylized Malthusian model, and endogenize the extent of agricultural labour input, which is then used to calculate labour...

  1. Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin; Ching-Hui, Wu; Lin, James C.

    2004-01-01

    The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involve the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)

  2. Effects of dormant and growing season burning on surface fuels and potential fire behavior in northern Florida longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    James B. Cronan; Clinton S. Wright; Maria Petrova

    2015-01-01

    Prescribed fire is widely used to manage fuels in high-frequency, low-severity fire regimes including pine flatwoods of the southeastern USA where prescribed burning during the growing season (the frost-free period during the calendar year) has become more common in recent decades. Growing season prescribed fires address ecological management objectives that focus on...

  3. Numerical modeling of fires on gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yang; Jianbo Lai; Lu Liu

    2011-01-01

    When natural gas is released through a hole on a high-pressure pipeline, it disperses in the atmosphere as a jet. A jet fire will occur when the leaked gas meets an ignition source. To estimate the dangerous area, the shape and size of the fire must be known. The evolution of the jet fire in air is predicted by using a finite-volume procedure to solve the flow equations. The model is three-dimensional, elliptic and calculated by using a compressibility corrected version of the k - ξ turbulence model, and also includes a probability density function/laminar flamelet model of turbulent non-premixed combustion process. Radiation heat transfer is described using an adaptive version of the discrete transfer method. The model is compared with the experiments about a horizontal jet fire in a wind tunnel in the literature with success. The influence of wind and jet velocity on the fire shape has been investigated. And a correlation based on numerical results for predicting the stoichiometric flame length is proposed. - Research highlights: → We developed a model to predict the evolution of turbulent jet diffusion flames. → Measurements of temperature distributions match well with the numerical predictions. → A correlation has been proposed to predict the stoichiometric flame length. → Buoyancy effects are higher in the numerical results. → The radiative heat loss is bigger in the experimental results.

  4. Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences

  5. Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences.

  6. Seasonal variations in soil water in two woodland savannas of central Brazil with different fire history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, Carlos Alberto; Hodnett, Martin G; Breyer, Lacê M; Santos, Alexandre J B; Andrade, Sérgio; Miranda, Heloisa S; Miranda, Antonio Carlos; Lloyd, Jon

    2008-03-01

    Changes in soil water content were determined in two cerrado (sensu stricto) areas with contrasting fire history and woody vegetation density. The study was undertaken near Brasília, Brazil, from 1999 to 2001. Soil water content was measured with a neutron probe in three access tubes per site to a depth of 4.7 m. One site has been protected from fire for more than 30 years and, as a consequence, has a high density of woody plants. The other site had been frequently burned, and has a high herbaceous vegetation density and less woody vegetation. Soil water uptake patterns were strongly seasonal, and despite similarities in hydrological processes, the protected area systematically used more water than the burned area. Three temporarily contiguous patterns of water absorption were differentiated, characterized by variation in the soil depth from which water was extracted. In the early dry season, vegetation used water from throughout the soil profile but with a slight preference for water in the upper soil layers. Toward the peak of the dry season, vegetation had used most or all available water from the surface to a depth of 1.7 m, but continued to extract water from greater depths. Following the first rains, all water used was from the recently wetted upper soil layers only. Evaporation rates were a linear function of soil water availability, indicating a strong coupling of atmospheric water demand and the physiological response of the vegetation.

  7. Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan

    2006-12-01

    Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea

  8. Post-fire regeneration in seasonally dry tropical forest fragments in southeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Mayke B; Menezes, Luis Fernando T DE; Nascimento, Marcelo T

    2017-01-01

    Seasonally dry tropical forest is one of the highly threatened biome. However, studies on the effect of fire on these tree communities are still scarce. In this context, a floristic and structural survey in three forest areas in the southeast of Brazil that were affected by fire between 14 and 25 years ago was performed with the objective of evaluating post-fire regeneration. In each site, five systematically placed plots (25 m x 25 m each) were established. The more recently burnt site had significantly lower values of richness and diversity than the other two sites. However, the sites did not differ in density and basal area. Annona dolabripetala, Astronium concinnum, Joannesia princeps and Polyandrococos caudescens were within the 10 most important species for the three sites. Comparing these data with adjacent mature forests, the results indicated differences both in structural and floristic aspects, suggesting that the time after fire was not sufficient for recuperation of these areas. The recovery process indicate at least 190 years for areas return to basal area values close to those observed in mature forests nearby.

  9. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  10. Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Richard D; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

    1991-01-01

    With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system.

  11. Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Richard D.; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

    1991-01-01

    With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system. PMID:28184121

  12. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  13. Sodium pool fire model for CONACS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yung, S.C.

    1982-01-01

    The modeling of sodium pool fires constitutes an important ingredient in conducting LMFBR accident analysis. Such modeling capability has recently come under scrutiny at Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) within the context of developing CONACS, the Containment Analysis Code System. One of the efforts in the CONACS program is to model various combustion processes anticipated to occur during postulated accident paths. This effort includes the selection or modification of an existing model and development of a new model if it clearly contributes to the program purpose. As part of this effort, a new sodium pool fire model has been developed that is directed at removing some of the deficiencies in the existing models, such as SOFIRE-II and FEUNA

  14. MODIS derived fire characteristics and aerosol optical depth variations during the agricultural residue burning season, north India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Ellicott, Evan; Badarinath, K.V.S.; Vermote, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural residue burning is one of the major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols in the Indo-Ganges region. In this study, we characterize the fire intensity, seasonality, variability, fire radiative energy (FRE) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) variations during the agricultural residue burning season using MODIS data. Fire counts exhibited significant bi-modal activity, with peak occurrences during April-May and October-November corresponding to wheat and rice residue burning episodes. The FRE variations coincided with the amount of residues burnt. The mean AOD (2003-2008) was 0.60 with 0.87 (+1σ) and 0.32 (-1σ). The increased AOD during the winter coincided well with the fire counts during rice residue burning season. In contrast, the AOD-fire signal was weak during the summer wheat residue burning and attributed to dust and fossil fuel combustion. Our results highlight the need for 'full accounting of GHG's and aerosols', for addressing the air quality in the study area. - Highlights: → MODIS data could capture rice and wheat residue burning events. → The total FRP was high during the rice burning season than the wheat. → MODIS AOD variations coincided well with rice burning events than wheat. → AOD values exceeding one suggested intense air pollution. - This research work highlights the satellite derived fire products and their potential in characterizing the agricultural residue burning events and air pollution.

  15. Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

  16. Role of burning season on initial understory vegetation response to prescribed fire in a mixed conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, E.E.; Schwilk, D.W.; Kane, J.M.; Keeley, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Although the majority of fires in the western United States historically occurred during the late summer or early fall when fuels were dry and plants were dormant or nearly so, early-season prescribed burns are often ignited when fuels are still moist and plants are actively growing. The purpose of this study was to determine if burn season influences postfire vegetation recovery. Replicated early-season burn, late-season burn, and unburned control units were established in a mixed conifer forest, and understory vegetation was evaluated before and after treatment. Vegetation generally recovered rapidly after prescribed burning. However, late-season burns resulted in a temporary but significant drop in cover and a decline in species richness at the 1 m 2 scale in the following year. For two of the several taxa that were negatively affected by burning, the reduction in frequency was greater after late-season than early-season burns. Early-season burns may have moderated the effect of fire by consuming less fuel and lessening the amount of soil heating. Our results suggest that, when burned under high fuel loading conditions, many plant species respond more strongly to differences in fire intensity and severity than to timing of the burn relative to stage of plant growth. ?? 2007 NRC.

  17. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-02

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2009-0568] NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft Report for...), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft for Comment,'' is...

  18. Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

    2015-08-01

    A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

  19. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

  20. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

    2014-01-01

    As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

  1. Combustion efficiency and emission factors for wildfire-season fires in mixed conifer forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, US

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. P. Urbanski

    2013-01-01

    In the US, wildfires and prescribed burning present significant challenges to air regulatory agencies attempting to achieve and maintain compliance with air quality regulations. Fire emission factors (EF) are essential input for the emission models used to develop wildland fire emission inventories. Most previous studies quantifying wildland fire EF of temperate...

  2. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  3. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  4. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

  5. Smoke exposure and associated health effects across several fire seasons and locations in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dell, K.; Ford, B.; Gan, R.; Liu, J.; Lassman, W.; Burke, M.; Pfister, G.; Vaidyanathan, A.; Volckens, J.; Magzamen, S.; Fischer, E. V.; Pierce, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires are a significant source of particulate matter in the western United States. Wildfire activity in this region has increased over the past few decades and is projected to continue to increase further due to warmer and drier conditions. Particulate matter with diameters smaller than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) has known adverse effects on human health. However, due to an inconsistent association of wildfire PM2.5 and several disease outcomes, it is unclear if wildfire PM exerts similar health impacts as anthropogenic PM. Improved wildfire smoke exposure estimates are needed to gain a clearer understanding of the health impacts of wildfire PM2.5. Characterizing PM2.5 concentrations from wildfire smoke is challenging due to the transient nature of smoke. Current methods of determining smoke exposure rely on satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD), estimates from chemical transport models (CTMs), or values reported by surface monitoring sites; each of these data sources has some limitations. To improve the accuracy of our exposure estimates, we developed new methods to blend these data. Our results indicate that blending information from the above-mentioned data sources along with counts of wildfire-smoke-related social-media posts results in better characterization of smoke exposure than any individual tool. We link our daily smoke PM2.5 exposure estimates with hospitalization and urgent-care admission data from Washington, Oregon, and Colorado during several fire seasons as well as prescription filling data from Oregon. We find a robust relationship, where a 10 μg m-3 increase in smoke is significantly associated with a 9.5% (95% CI: 6.2, 12.9) increase in the rate of asthma admissions and a 7.7% increase (95% CI: 6.5. 8.8) in the risk for respiratory rescue medication prescription refills. There was no significant association between smoke exposure and any cardiovascular endpoints. Our findings support the association of wildfire smoke

  6. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bastos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion.

    The main goals of the present work are (i to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively.

    The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998–2009, at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to

  7. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Dacamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion. The main goals of the present work are (i) to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii) to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii) to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively. The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998-2009), at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to recover slower than transitional woodland

  8. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  9. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  10. Comparing resource values at risk from wildfires with Forest Service fire suppression expenditures: Examples from 2003 western Montana wildfire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Calkin; Kevin Hyde; Krista Gebert; Greg Jones

    2005-01-01

    Determining the economic effectiveness of wildfire suppression activities is complicated by difficulties in identifying the area that would have burned and the associated resource value changes had suppression resources not been employed. We developed a case study using break-even analysis for two large wildfires from the 2003 fire season in western Montana -- the...

  11. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  12. Soil Microbial Activity Responses to Fire in a Semi-arid Savannah Ecosystem Pre- and Post-Monsoon Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, J. R.; Raub, H. D.; Jong, E. L.; Muscarella, C. R.; Smith, W. K.; Gallery, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) of soil microorganisms can act as important proxies for nutrient limitation and turnover in soil and provide insight into the biochemical requirements of microbes in terrestrial ecosystems. In semi-arid ecosystems, microbial activity is influenced by topography, disturbances such as fire, and seasonality from monsoon rains. Previous studies from forest ecosystems show that microbial communities shift to similar compositions after severe fires despite different initial conditions. In semi-arid ecosystems with high spatial heterogeniety, we ask does fire lead to patch intensification or patch homogenization and how do monsoon rains influence the successional trajectories of microbial responses? We analyzed microbial activity and soil biogeochemistry throughout the monsoon season in paired burned and unburned sites in the Santa Rita Experimental Range, AZ. Surface soil (5cm) from bare-ground patches, bole, canopy drip line, and nearby grass patches for 5 mesquite trees per site allowed tests of spatiotemporal responses to fire and monsoon rain. Microbial activity was low during the pre-monsoon season and did not differ between the burned and unburned sites. We found greater activity near mesquite trees that reflects soil water and nutrient availability. Fire increased soil alkalinity, though soils near mesquite trees were less affected. Soil water content was significantly higher in the burned sites post-monsoon, potentially reflecting greater hydrophobicity of burned soils. Considering the effects of fire in these semi-arid ecosystems is especially important in the context of the projected changing climate regime in this region. Assessing microbial community recovery pre-, during, and post-monsoon is important for testing predictions about whether successional pathways post-fire lead to recovery or novel trajectories of communities and ecosystem function.

  13. Fire simulation of pool fire with effects of a ventilation controlled compartment by using a fire model, CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Matsuyama, Ken

    2015-01-01

    The basic performance for numerical analysis of fire parameters in a compartment by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings, was examined. Special attentions were paid to the effects of compartment geometry under poor ventilation conditions with mechanical systems. The simulations were carried out under conditions corresponding to previous experiments, in which fire parameters have been precisely measured. The comparison between numerical simulations and experiments indicated that the CFAST principally has a capability to represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment, by applying the proper boundary conditions. These results suggest that numerical analysis for time-series of air temperature and smoke concentration in compartments must be a powerful tool for discussion on validity of fire protection schemes. (author)

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  15. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  16. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses

  17. Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

    2011-12-01

    Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of

  18. Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center

  19. Development and validation of a physics-based urban fire spread model

    OpenAIRE

    HIMOTO, Keisuke; TANAKA, Takeyoshi

    2008-01-01

    A computational model for fire spread in a densely built urban area is developed. The model is distinct from existing models in that it explicitly describes fire spread phenomena with physics-based knowledge achieved in the field of fire safety engineering. In the model, urban fire is interpreted as an ensemble of multiple building fires; that is, the fire spread is simulated by predicting behaviors of individual building fires under the thermal influence of neighboring building fires. Adopte...

  20. Quantifying responses of dung beetles to fire disturbance in tropical forests: the importance of trapping method and seasonality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Andrade, Rafael Barreto; Barlow, Jos; Louzada, Julio; Vaz-de-Mello, Fernando Zagury; Souza, Mateus; Silveira, Juliana M; Cochrane, Mark A

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how biodiversity responds to environmental changes is essential to provide the evidence-base that underpins conservation initiatives. The present study provides a standardized comparison between unbaited flight intercept traps (FIT) and baited pitfall traps (BPT) for sampling dung beetles. We examine the effectiveness of the two to assess fire disturbance effects and how trap performance is affected by seasonality. The study was carried out in a transitional forest between Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Amazon Forest. Dung beetles were collected during one wet and one dry sampling season. The two methods sampled different portions of the local beetle assemblage. Both FIT and BPT were sensitive to fire disturbance during the wet season, but only BPT detected community differences during the dry season. Both traps showed similar correlation with environmental factors. Our results indicate that seasonality had a stronger effect than trap type, with BPT more effective and robust under low population numbers, and FIT more sensitive to fine scale heterogeneity patterns. This study shows the strengths and weaknesses of two commonly used methodologies for sampling dung beetles in tropical forests, as well as highlighting the importance of seasonality in shaping the results obtained by both sampling strategies.

  1. Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson

    2008-01-01

    We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...

  2. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  3. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  4. Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

    2007-01-01

    Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

  5. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  6. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  7. FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTING MODELS EFFICIENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972 fire spread model, the Byram (1959 flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962 control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.

  8. Modelling the Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Pratt, Larry; Bower, Amy; Koehl, Armin; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh

    2015-01-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using 50-year, high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb

  9. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  10. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  11. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  12. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  13. Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. P. Dimitrakopoulos; R. E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    A small number of fires escape initial attack suppression efforts and become large, but their effects are significant and disproportionate. In 1983, of 200,000 wildland fires in the United States, only 4,000 exceeded 100 acres. However, these escaped fires accounted for roughly 95 percent of wildfire-related costs and damages (Pyne, 1984). Thus, future research efforts...

  14. Effects of an accidental dry-season fire on the reproductive phenology of two Neotropical savanna shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodonov, P; Zanelli, C B; Silva-Matos, D M

    2017-10-30

    Fire is a recurrent disturbance in savanna vegetation and savanna species are adapted to it. Even so, fire may affect various aspects of plant ecology, including phenology. We studied the effects of a spatially heterogeneous fire on the reproductive phenology of two dominant woody plant species, Miconia albicans (Melastomataceae) and Schefflera vinosa (Araliaceae), in a savanna area in South-eastern Brazil. The study site was partially burnt by a dry-season accidental fire in August 2006, and we monitored the phenolology of 30 burnt and 30 unburnt individuals of each species between September 2007 and September 2008. We used restricted randomizations to assess phenological differences between the burnt and unburnt individuals. Fire had negative effects on the phenology of M. albicans, with a smaller production of reproductive structures in general and of floral buds, total fruits, and ripe fruits in burnt plants. All unburnt but only 16% of the burnt M. albicans plants produced ripe fruits during the study. Fire effects on S. vinosa were smaller, but there was a greater production of floral buds and fruits (but not ripe fruits) by burnt plants; approximately 90% of the individuals of S. vinosa produced ripe fruits during the study, regardless of having been burnt or not. The differences between the two species may be related to S. vinosa's faster growth and absence from the seed bank at the study site, whereas M. albicans grows more slowly and is dominant in the seed bank.

  15. Implications of emission inventory choice for modeling fire-related pollution in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koplitz, S. N.; Nolte, C. G.; Pouliot, G.

    2017-12-01

    Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. Within the U.S., wildland fires can account for more than 30% of total annual PM2.5 emissions. In order to represent the influence of fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models (CTMs) rely on fire emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). Burned area can be estimated using a range of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including satellite-derived remote sensing and on-the-ground incident reports. While burned area estimates agree with each other reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. vary by more than a factor of 3. Differences in burned area estimation methods lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire INventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated fire-related PM2.5 and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. due solely to the emission inventory used. Preliminary results indicate that the estimated contribution to national annual average PM2.5 from wildland fire in 2011 is highest using GFED4s emissions (1.0 µg m-3) followed by NEI (0.7 µg m-3) and FINN (0.3 µg m-3), with comparisons varying significantly by region and season. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to fire emission inventory choice will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global

  16. FireStem2D — A two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthalia K. Chatziefstratiou; Gil Bohrer; Anthony S. Bova; Ravishankar Subramanian; Renato P.M. Frasson; Amy Scherzer; Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by...

  17. Firing patterns in the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Richard; Marcille, Nicolas; Clopath, Claudia; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2008-11-01

    For simulations of large spiking neuron networks, an accurate, simple and versatile single-neuron modeling framework is required. Here we explore the versatility of a simple two-equation model: the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron. We show that this model generates multiple firing patterns depending on the choice of parameter values, and present a phase diagram describing the transition from one firing type to another. We give an analytical criterion to distinguish between continuous adaption, initial bursting, regular bursting and two types of tonic spiking. Also, we report that the deterministic model is capable of producing irregular spiking when stimulated with constant current, indicating low-dimensional chaos. Lastly, the simple model is fitted to real experiments of cortical neurons under step current stimulation. The results provide support for the suitability of simple models such as the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron for large network simulations.

  18. SAFARI 2000 Reflectance of Fire Residue, Kruger National Park, Dry Season 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of this study was to understand the change in reflectance caused by the action of fire and the heterogeneity of fire effects (i.e., the fraction of the...

  19. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

  20. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  1. Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medler, Michael Johns

    Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy

  2. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)

  3. Mathematical modeling of agricultural fires beneath high voltage transmission lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Zohri, Emad H.; Shafey, Hamdy M.; Abdel-Salam, M.; Ahmed, A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for agricultural fires based on a multi-phase formulation. The model includes dehydration and pyrolysis of agricultural fuel and pyrolysis products. The model considers a homogeneous distribution of the agricultural solid fuel particles, interacting with the gas flow via source terms. These terms include: drag forces, production of water vapour and pyrolysis products, radiative and convective heat exchange. A multi-phase radiative transfer equation for absorbing-emitting medium is considered to account for the radiative heat exchange between the gas and solid phases of the fire. The main outputs of the present model are most important to study the influence of agricultural fire occurring beneath high voltage transmission lines. The agricultural fire causes a flashover due to the ambient temperature rise and soot accumulation on the insulator of these transmission lines. Numerical results of the present model are obtained for flat grassland fires to study the effects of wind velocity, solid fuel moisture content and ignition length on some selected fire outputs. These outputs include the temperature, velocity, soot volume fraction fields of the gas phase, together with fire propagation rate and flame geometry. The numerical results are compared to the available experimental work in the literature. -- Research highlights: → The model is sensitive to the initial condition of the ignition length affecting the fire propagation rate and width. → The model predicts the effects of both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content on fire propagation rate, in agreement with the available experimental work in the literature. → The model shows that both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content are important factors affecting the fire plume thickness, location, and inclination. → The model is able to visualize the flame geometry through tracing radiative heat rates exceeding a threshold value for flame visibility (60 k

  4. A Lotka-Volterra competition model with seasonal succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A complete classification for the global dynamics of a Lotka-Volterra two species competition model with seasonal succession is obtained via the stability analysis of equilibria and the theory of monotone dynamical systems. The effects of two death rates in the bad season and the proportion of the good season on the competition outcomes are also discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2011

  5. FIRE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Hausheer, T.G.

    1990-01-01

    FIRE, a microcomputer based program to assist engineers in reviewing and documenting the fire protection impact of design changes has been developed. Acting as an electronic consultant, FIRE is designed to work with an experienced nuclear system engineer, who may not have any detailed fire protection expertise. FIRE helps the engineer to decide if a modification might adversely affect the fire protection design of the station. Since its first development, FIRE has been customized to reflect the fire protection philosophy of the Commonwealth Edison Company. That program is in early production use. This paper discusses the FIRE program in light of its being a useful application of expert system technologies in the power industry

  6. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  7. Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2013-09-01

    We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness

  8. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  9. Modeling fire and other disturbance processes using LANDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Hong He

    2009-01-01

    LANDIS is a landscape decision support tool that models spatial relationships to help managers and planners examine the large-scale, long-term, cumulative effects of succession, harvesting, wildfire, prescribed fire, insects, and disease. It can operate on forest landscapes from a few thousand to a few million acres in extent. Fire modeling capabilities in LANDIS are...

  10. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  11. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  12. Numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kuldeep; Li, Chiping; Kailasanath, K.; Ndubizu, Chuka; Ananth, Ramagopal; Tatem, P. A.

    1999-12-01

    The focus of this paper is on numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires. A mathematical model is first developed to describe the evaporation and burning of a two-dimensional or axisymmetric pool containing pure liquid methanol. Then, the complete set of unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for reactive flows are solved in the gas phase to describe the convection of the fuel gases away from the pool surface, diffusion of the gases into the surrounding air and the oxidation of the fuel into product species. Heat transfer into the liquid pool and the metal container through conduction, convection and radiation are modelled by solving a modified form of the energy equation. Clausius-Clapeyron relationships are invoked to model the evaporation rate of a two-dimensional pool of pure liquid methanol. The governing equations along with appropriate boundary and interface conditions are solved using the flux-corrected transport algorithm. Numerical results exhibit a flame structure that compares well with experimental observations. Temperature profiles and burning rates were found to compare favourably with experimental data from single- and three-compartment laboratory burners. The model predicts a puffing frequency of approximately 12 Hz for a 1 cm diameter methanol pool in the absence of any air co-flow. It is also observed that increasing the air co-flow velocity helps in stabilizing the diffusion flame, by pushing the vortical structures away from the flame region.

  13. IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  14. Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  15. Restoring fire as an ecological process in shortgrass prairie ecosystems: initial effects of prescribed burning during the dormant and growing seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockway, Dale G; Gatewood, Richard G; Paris, Randi B

    2002-06-01

    Prior to Anglo-European settlement, fire was a major ecological process influencing the structure, composition and productivity of shortgrass prairie ecosystems on the Great Plains. However during the past 125 years, the frequency and extent of grassland fire has dramatically declined as a result of the systematic heavy grazing by large herds of domestic cattle and sheep which reduced the available levels of fine fuel and organized fire suppression efforts that succeeded in altering the natural fire regime. The greatly diminished role of recurrent fire in these ecosystems is thought to be responsible for ecologically adverse shifts in the composition, structure and diversity of these grasslands, leading specifically to the rise of ruderal species and invasion by less fire-tolerant species. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ecological effects of fire season and frequency on the shortgrass prairie and to determine the means by which prescribed fire can best be restored in this ecosystem to provide the greatest benefit for numerous resource values. Plant cover, diversity, biomass and nutrient status, litter cover and soil chemistry were measured prior to and following fire treatments on a buffalograss-blue grama shortgrass prairie in northeastern New Mexico. Dormant-season fire was followed by increases in grass cover, forb cover, species richness and concentrations of foliar P, K, Ca, Mg and Mn. Growing-season fire produced declines in the cover of buffalograss, graminoids and forbs and increases in litter cover and levels of foliar P, K, Ca and Mn. Although no changes in soil chemistry were observed, both fire treatments caused decreases in herbaceous production, with standing biomass resulting from growing-season fire approximately 600 kg/ha and dormant-season fire approximately 1200 kg/ha, compared with controls approximately 1800 kg/ha. The initial findings of this long-term experiment suggest that dormant-season burning may be the preferable method

  16. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  17. Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

    2010-01-01

    Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

  18. Fire and Heat Spreading Model Based on Cellular Automata Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samartsev, A. A.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Fominykh, D. S.

    2018-05-01

    The distinctive feature of the proposed fire and heat spreading model in premises is the reduction of the computational complexity due to the use of the theory of cellular automata with probability rules of behavior. The possibilities and prospects of using this model in practice are noted. The proposed model has a simple mechanism of integration with agent-based evacuation models. The joint use of these models could improve floor plans and reduce the time of evacuation from premises during fires.

  19. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  20. Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.

    1996-01-01

    While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry

  1. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed

  2. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  3. The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

    2012-01-01

    Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

  4. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  5. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  6. Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise

    2009-01-01

    The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...

  7. Mathematical modelling of fire in forced ventilated enclosures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, G.; Kumar, S.

    1985-01-01

    The application of a computer fire simulation model to the prediction of conditions in a forced ventilated experimental fire test cell at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is discussed. Comparisons between theoretical and experimental determinations are shown to be in reasonable agreement and areas requiring further research indicated

  8. 79-87 Adding Benzene to Fire: Overlapping Seasonality as a Pull ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... influence the seasonal behaviour of farmers' high cash demand in such a way that it coincides with the lean seasons of agricultural ... The resulting price levels and variability affect the ..... can be assumed that farmers are rational and tend to.

  9. Dormant season fire inhibits sixweeks fescue and enhances forage production in shortgrass steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Great Plains of central North America, fire effects on vegetation vary considerably along an east–to–west gradient of declining mean annual precipitation and aboveground plant productivity. In the western, semiarid region of the Great Plains, recent studies demonstrate that prescribed fire ca...

  10. Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) response to seasonality and frequency of fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felicia D. Archuleta

    2014-01-01

    Fragmentation of the landscape, habitat loss, and fire suppression, all a result of European settlement and activities, have precipitated both the decline of Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations and the occurrence of fire throughout the Great Plains, including the Shortgrass steppe of northeastern New Mexico. The presence of Black-tailed prairie...

  11. Biological soil crust response to late season prescribed fire in a Great Basin juniper woodland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven D. Warren; Larry L. St.Clair; Jeffrey R. Johansen; Paul Kugrens; L. Scott Baggett; Benjamin J. Bird

    2015-01-01

    Expansion of juniper on U.S. rangelands is a significant environmental concern. Prescribed fire is often recommended to control juniper. To that end, a prescribed burn was conducted in a Great Basin juniper woodland. Conditions were suboptimal; fire did not encroach into mid- or late-seral stages and was patchy in the early-seral stage. This study evaluated the effects...

  12. Characterization of potential fire regimes: applying landscape ecology to fire management in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardel, E.; Alvarado, E.; Perez-Salicrup, D.; Morfín-Rios, J.

    2013-05-01

    Knowledge and understanding of fire regimes is fundamental to design sound fire management practices. The high ecosystem diversity of Mexico offers a great challenge to characterize the fire regime variation at the landscape level. A conceptual model was developed considering the main factors controlling fire regimes: climate and vegetation cover. We classified landscape units combining bioclimatic zones from the Holdridge life-zone system and actual vegetation cover. Since bioclimatic conditions control primary productivity and biomass accumulation (potential fuel), each landscape unit was considered as a fuel bed with a particular fire intensity and behavior potential. Climate is also a determinant factor of post-fire recovery rates of fuel beds, and climate seasonality (length of the dry and wet seasons) influences fire probability (available fuel and ignition efficiency). These two factors influence potential fire frequency. Potential fire severity can be inferred from fire frequency, fire intensity and behavior, and vegetation composition and structure. Based in the conceptual model, an exhaustive literature review and expert opinion, we developed rules to assign a potential fire regime (PFR) defined by frequency, intensity and severity (i.e. fire regime) to each bioclimatic-vegetation landscape unit. Three groups and eight types of potential fire regimes were identified. In Group A are fire-prone ecosystems with frequent low severity surface fires in grasslands (PFR type I) or forests with long dry season (II) and infrequent high-severity fires in chaparral (III), wet temperate forests (IV, fire restricted by humidity), and dry temperate forests (V, fire restricted by fuel recovery rate). Group B includes fire-reluctant ecosystems with very infrequent or occasional mixed severity surface fires limited by moisture in tropical rain forests (VI) or fuel availability in seasonally dry tropical forests (VII). Group C and PFR VIII include fire-free environments

  13. Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

    2016-01-01

    Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

  14. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  15. Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    modification to the motion and reaction due to their non-sphericity. The simulation results show a big difference between the two cases and indicate it is very significant to take into account the non-sphericity of biomass particles in order to model biomass combustion more accurately. Methods to improve...... of numerical modeling. The models currently used to predict solid fuel combustion rely on a spherical particle shape assumption, which may deviate a lot from reality for big biomass particles. A sphere gives a minimum in terms of the surface-area-to-volume ratio, which impacts significantly both motion...... and reaction of a particle. To better understand biomass combustion and thus improve the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners, non-sphericity of biomass particles is considered. To ease comparison, two cases are numerically studied in a 10m long gas/biomass co-fired burner model. (1) The biomass...

  16. Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

    2016-04-01

    Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

  17. Model of fire spread around Krsko Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.

    2001-01-01

    The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. The study is based on thermodynamics, heat transfer and the study of hydrodynamics and combustion, which represent the bases of fire dynamics. The article shows a practical example of a leak of hazardous chemicals from a tank. Because of the inflammability of the fluid, fire may start. We have tried to model fire propagation around the Krsko power plant, and show what extended surrounding area could be affected. The model also considers weather conditions, in particular wind speed and direction. For this purpose we have used the computer code Safer Trace, which is based on zone models. That means that phenomena are described by physical and empirical equations. An imperfection in this computer code is the inability to consider ground topology. However in the case of the Krsko power plant, topology is not so important, as the plan is located in a relatively flat region. Mathematical models are presented. They show the propagation of hazardous fluid in the environment considering meteorological data. The work also shows which data are essential to define fire spread and shows the main considerations of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for external fire event.(author)

  18. SAFARI 2000 Pre- and Post-fire Reflectance near Kaoma, Zambia, Dry Season 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main goal of this study was to analyze the possibility of estimating combustion completeness based on fire-induced spectral reflectance changes of surface...

  19. Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

    2018-01-01

    In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

  20. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  1. A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2018-03-01

    This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

  2. The FireWork air quality forecast system with near-real-time biomass burning emissions: Recent developments and evaluation of performance for the 2015 North American wildfire season

    OpenAIRE

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Anderson, Kerry; Moran, Michael D.; Beaulieu, Paul-Andr?; Davignon, Didier; Cousineau, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environment and Climate Change Canada?s FireWork air quality (AQ) forecast system for North America with near-real-time biomass burning emissions has been running experimentally during the Canadian wildfire season since 2013. The system runs twice per day with model initializations at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and produces numerical AQ forecast guidance with 48-hr lead time. In this work we describe the FireWork system, which incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions based on th...

  3. The Effect of Seasonal Ambient Temperatures on Fire-Stimulated Germination of Species with Physiological Dormancy: A Case Study Using Boronia (Rutaceae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auld, Tony D.; Keith, David A.; Hui, Francis K. C.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Dormancy and germination requirements determine the timing and magnitude of seedling emergence, with important consequences for seedling survival and growth. Physiological dormancy is the most widespread form of dormancy in flowering plants, yet the seed ecology of species with this dormancy type is poorly understood in fire-prone vegetation. The role of seasonal temperatures as germination cues in these habitats is often overlooked due to a focus on direct fire cues such as heat shock and smoke, and little is known about the combined effects of multiple fire-related cues and environmental cues as these are seldom assessed in combination. We aimed to improve understanding of the germination requirements of species with physiological dormancy in fire-prone floras by investigating germination responses across members of the Rutaceae from south eastern Australia. We used a fully factorial experimental design to quantify the individual and combined effects of heat shock, smoke and seasonal ambient temperatures on germination of freshly dispersed seeds of seven species of Boronia, a large and difficult-to-germinate genus. Germination syndromes were highly variable but correlated with broad patterns in seed morphology and phylogenetic relationships between species. Seasonal temperatures influenced the rate and/or magnitude of germination responses in six species, and interacted with fire cues in complex ways. The combined effects of heat shock and smoke ranged from neutral to additive, synergistic, unitive or negative and varied with species, seasonal temperatures and duration of incubation. These responses could not be reliably predicted from the effect of the application of single cues. Based on these findings, fire season and fire intensity are predicted to affect both the magnitude and timing of seedling emergence in wild populations of species with physiological dormancy, with important implications for current fire management practices and for population

  4. Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.D. Marx (Brian); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul); J. Gampe (Jutta); R. Rau (Roland)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic

  5. Modelling methods for co-fired pulverised fuel furnaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L. Ma; M. Gharebaghi; R. Porter; M. Pourkashanian; J.M. Jones; A. Williams [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). Energy and Resources Research Institute

    2009-12-15

    Co-firing of biomass and coal can be beneficial in reducing the carbon footprint of energy production. Accurate modelling of co-fired furnaces is essential to discover potential problems that may occur during biomass firing and to mitigate potential negative effects of biomass fuels, including lower efficiency due to lower burnout and NOx formation issues. Existing coal combustion models should be modified to increase reliability of predictions for biomass, including factors such as increased drag due to non-spherical particle sizes and accounting for organic compounds and the effects they have on NOx emission. Detailed biomass co-firing models have been developed and tested for a range of biomass fuels and show promising results. 32 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  6. Fire Modeling Institute: FY2012 Annual Report: Bridging scientists and managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes

    2013-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) brings the best available fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear in fire-related management issues. Although located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program of the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, FMI is a national and international resource, serving fire...

  7. Investigating fire emissions and smoke transport during the Summer of 2013 using an operational smoke modeling system and chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, S. M.; Chung, S. H.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M. E.; Solomon, R. C.; Rorig, M.

    2014-12-01

    Emissions from fires in the Western US are substantial and can impact air quality and regional climate. Many methods exist that estimate the particulate and gaseous emissions from fires, including those run operationally for use with chemical forecast models. The US Forest Service Smartfire2/BlueSky modeling framework uses satellite data and reported information about fire perimeters to estimate emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere. The emission estimates are used as inputs to dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT, and chemical transport models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, to assess the chemical and physical impacts of fires on the atmosphere. Here we investigate the use of Smartfire2/BlueSky and WRF-Chem to simulate emissions from the 2013 fire summer fire season, with special focus on the Rim Fire in northern California. The 2013 Rim Fire ignited on August 17 and eventually burned more than 250,000 total acres before being contained on October 24. Large smoke plumes and pyro-convection events were observed. In this study, the Smartfire2/BlueSky operational emission estimates are compared to other estimation methods, such as the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) and other global databases to quantify variations in emission estimation methods for this wildfire event. The impact of the emissions on downwind chemical composition is investigated with the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions in the model framework enables the evaluation of the downwind impacts of the fire plume. The emissions and modeled chemistry can also be evaluated with data collected from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) aircraft field campaign, which intersected the fire plume.

  8. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  9. Physiological responses of ponderosa pine in western Montana to thinning, prescribed fire and burning season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Anna; Peters, Gregory D; McIntyre, Lorna R; Harrington, Michael G

    2005-03-01

    Low-elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws.) forests of the northern Rocky Mountains historically experienced frequent low-intensity fires that maintained open uneven-aged stands. A century of fire exclusion has contributed to denser ponderosa pine forests with greater competition for resources, higher tree stress and greater risk of insect attack and stand-destroying fire. Active management intended to restore a semblance of the more sustainable historic stand structure and composition includes selective thinning and prescribed fire. However, little is known about the relative effects of these management practices on the physiological performance of ponderosa pine. We measured soil water and nitrogen availability, physiological performance and wood radial increment of second growth ponderosa pine trees at the Lick Creek Experimental Site in the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, 8 and 9 years after the application of four treatments: thinning only; thinning followed by prescribed fire in the spring; thinning followed by prescribed fire in the fall; and untreated controls. Volumetric soil water content and resin capsule ammonium did not differ among treatments. Resin capsule nitrate in the control treatment was similar to that in all other treatments, although burned treatments had lower nitrate relative to the thinned-only treatment. Trees of similar size and canopy condition in the three thinned treatments (with and without fire) displayed higher leaf-area-based photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and mid-morning leaf water potential in June and July, and higher wood radial increment relative to trees in control units. Specific leaf area, mass-based leaf nitrogen content and carbon isotope discrimination did not vary among treatments. Our results suggest that, despite minimal differences in soil resource availability, trees in managed units where basal area was reduced had improved gas exchange and growth compared with trees in

  10. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  11. Effects of repeated growing season prescribed fire on the structure and composition of pine-hardwood forests in the southeastern Piedmont, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Reilly; Kenneth Outcalt; Joseph O’Brien; Dale Wade

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effects of repeated growing season prescribed fire on the structure and composition of mixed pine–hardwood forests in the southeastern Piedmont region, Georgia, USA. Plots were burned two to four times over an eight-year period with low intensity surface fires during one of four six-week long periods from early April to mid-September. Density...

  12. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  13. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  14. Effects of fire disturbance on soil respiration in the non-growing season in a Larix gmelinii forest in the Daxing'an Mountains, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongxin Hu

    Full Text Available In boreal forests, fire is an important part of the ecosystem that greatly influences soil respiration, which in turn affects the carbon balance. Wildfire can have a significant effect on soil respiration and it depends on the fire severity and environmental factors (soil temperature and snow water equivalent after fire disturbance. In this study, we quantified post-fire soil respiration during the non-growing season (from November to April in a Larix gmelinii forest in Daxing'an Mountains of China. Soil respiration was measured in the snow-covered and snow-free conditions with varying degrees of natural burn severity forests. We found that soil respiration decreases as burn severity increases. The estimated annual C efflux also decreased with increased burn severity. Soil respiration during the non-growing season approximately accounted for 4%-5% of the annual C efflux in all site types. Soil temperature (at 5 cm depth was the predominant determinant of non-growing season soil respiration change in this area. Soil temperature and snow water equivalent could explain 73%-79% of the soil respiration variability in winter snow-covering period (November to March. Mean spring freeze-thaw cycle (FTC period (April soil respiration contributed 63% of the non-growing season C efflux. Our finding is key for understanding and predicting the potential change in the response of boreal forest ecosystems to fire disturbance under future climate change.

  15. Effects of fire disturbance on soil respiration in the non-growing season in a Larix gmelinii forest in the Daxing'an Mountains, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Tongxin; Sun, Long; Hu, Haiqing; Guo, Futao

    2017-01-01

    In boreal forests, fire is an important part of the ecosystem that greatly influences soil respiration, which in turn affects the carbon balance. Wildfire can have a significant effect on soil respiration and it depends on the fire severity and environmental factors (soil temperature and snow water equivalent) after fire disturbance. In this study, we quantified post-fire soil respiration during the non-growing season (from November to April) in a Larix gmelinii forest in Daxing'an Mountains of China. Soil respiration was measured in the snow-covered and snow-free conditions with varying degrees of natural burn severity forests. We found that soil respiration decreases as burn severity increases. The estimated annual C efflux also decreased with increased burn severity. Soil respiration during the non-growing season approximately accounted for 4%-5% of the annual C efflux in all site types. Soil temperature (at 5 cm depth) was the predominant determinant of non-growing season soil respiration change in this area. Soil temperature and snow water equivalent could explain 73%-79% of the soil respiration variability in winter snow-covering period (November to March). Mean spring freeze-thaw cycle (FTC) period (April) soil respiration contributed 63% of the non-growing season C efflux. Our finding is key for understanding and predicting the potential change in the response of boreal forest ecosystems to fire disturbance under future climate change.

  16. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  17. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  18. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  19. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    OpenAIRE

    F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward

    2013-01-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....

  20. Systems and models of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Kielak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents fire blight prediction models and systems, developed in Europe (system Billing - versions: BOS, BRS, BIS95 and originated from this system: Firescreen, FEUERBRA and ANLAFBRA and in United States (Californian system, model Maryblyt and system Cougarblight. Use of above models and systems in various climatic-geographic conditions and comparison of obtained prognostic data to real fire blight occurrence is reviewed. The newest trends in research on improvement of prognostic analyses parameters with their adjustment to particular conditions and consideration of infection source occurrence are also presented.

  1. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  2. Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro

    2013-04-01

    The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database

  3. Using MOPITT data and a Chemistry and Transport Model to Investigate Injection Height of Plumes from Boreal Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Allen, D. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Warner, J. X.

    2003-12-01

    Trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires are a significant factor in atmospheric composition and its interannual variability. A number of recent observations of emissions plumes above individual fire events (Fromm and Servranckx, 2003; COBRA 2003; Lamarque et al., 2003; Wotawa and Trainer, 2000) suggest that vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes can be very different from fossil fuel emission plumes. Understanding and constraining the vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes and their injection into the atmosphere during fire events is critical for accurate modeling of atmospheric transport and chemistry. While excellent data have been collected in a handful of experiments on individual fire events, a systematic examination of the range of behavior observed in fire events has been hampered by the scarcity of vertical profiles of atmospheric composition. In this study, we used a high-resolution model of boreal forest fire emissions (Kasischke et al, in review) as input to the Goddard/UM CTM driven by the GEOS-3 DAS, operating at 2 by 2.5 degrees with 35 vertical levels. We modeled atmospheric injection and transport of CO emissions during the fire season of 2000 (May-September). We altered the parameters of the model to simulate a range of scenarios of plume injection, and compared the resulting output to the CO profiles from the MOPITT instrument. The results presented here pertain to the boreal forest, but our methods should be useful for atmospheric modelers hoping to more realistically model transport of emission plumes from biomass burning. References: COBRA2003: see http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/smoke_canada_030530.pdf Fromm, M. and R. Servranckx, 2003. "Stratospheric Injection of Forest Fire Emissions on August 4, 1998: A Satellite Image Analysis of the Causal Supercell Convection." Geophysical Research Abstracts 5:13118. Kasischke, E.S.; E.J. Hyer, N.H.F. French, A.I. Sukhinin, J.H. Hewson, B.J. Stocks, in review. "Carbon

  4. Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ruiyu

    It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a

  5. Invasive and native plant responses to shrubland fuel reduction: comparing prescribed fire, mastication, and treatment season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer B. Potts; Scott L. Stephens

    2009-01-01

    Fuel reduction in the wildland–urban interface is a widely used international strategy for assisting human communities regarding wildfire threats, but very little research has examined whether certain fuel reduction methods and their seasonal timing promote nonnative invasion. To...

  6. 75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-02

    ..., Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY... 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment... exists in both the general fire protection and the nuclear power plant (NPP) fire protection communities...

  7. An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-02-15

    In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)

  8. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.

    2001-12-01

    The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.

  9. Modeling snowmelt infiltration in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budhathoki, S.; Ireson, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    In cold regions, freezing and thawing of the soil govern soil hydraulic properties that shape the surface and subsurface hydrological processes. The partitioning of snowmelt into infiltration and runoff has also important implications for integrated water resource management and flood risk. However, there is an inadequate representation of the snowmelt infiltration into frozen soils in most land-surface and hydrological models, creating the need for improved models and methods. Here we apply, the Frozen Soil Infiltration Model, FroSIn, which is a novel algorithm for infiltration in frozen soils that can be implemented in physically based models of coupled flow and heat transport. In this study, we apply the model in a simple configuration to reproduce observations from field sites in the Canadian prairies, specifically St Denis and Brightwater Creek in Saskatchewan, Canada. We demonstrate the limitations of conventional approaches to simulate infiltration, which systematically over-predict runoff and under predict infiltration. The findings show that FroSIn enables models to predict more reasonable infiltration volumes in frozen soils, and also represent how infiltration-runoff partitioning is impacted by antecedent soil moisture.

  10. Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

    2006-01-01

    Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

  11. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  12. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

    2008-01-01

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

  13. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  14. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in

  15. Modeling of Ceiling Fire Spread and Thermal Radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-10-01

    under a PMMA ceiling and flame lengths under an inert ceiling are found to be in reasonable agreement with full-scale behavior. Although fire spread...5 3 Flame Lengths under Full-Scale Ceilings 12 4 Correlation of Flame Length under Inert Ceilings 16 5 Correlation of Flame Length under No 234 Model...Ceilings 17 6 Correlation of Flame Length under No B8811 Model Ceilings 18 7 Correlation of Flame Length under No. 223 Model Ceilings 19 8

  16. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  17. A thermal model for the seasonal nitrogen cycle on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Candice J.; Paige, David A.

    1992-01-01

    The seasonal N2-cycle model presently used to characterize such observed phenomena on Triton as atmospheric pressure and surface albedo features at the time of the Voyager encounter incorporates diurnal and seasonal subsurface heat conduction, and can account for the heat capacity of N2 frost deposits. The results obtained by this model differ from those of previous studies in that they do not predict the seasonal freezing-out of the Triton atmosphere; even for a wide range of input parameters, the bright southern polar cap is seen as rather unlikely to be N2. The results support the microphysical arguments for the presence of either dark or smooth translucent N2 frosts on the Triton surface.

  18. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  19. Modeling seasonal migration of fall armyworm moths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westbrook, J. K.; Nagoshi, R. N.; Meagher, R. L.; Fleischer, S. J.; Jairam, S.

    2016-02-01

    Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is a highly mobile insect pest of a wide range of host crops. However, this pest of tropical origin cannot survive extended periods of freezing temperature but must migrate northward each spring if it is to re-infest cropping areas in temperate regions. The northward limit of the winter-breeding region for North America extends to southern regions of Texas and Florida, but infestations are regularly reported as far north as Québec and Ontario provinces in Canada by the end of summer. Recent genetic analyses have characterized migratory pathways from these winter-breeding regions, but knowledge is lacking on the atmosphere's role in influencing the timing, distance, and direction of migratory flights. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to simulate migratory flight of fall armyworm moths from distinct winter-breeding source areas. Model simulations identified regions of dominant immigration from the Florida and Texas source areas and overlapping immigrant populations in the Alabama-Georgia and Pennsylvania-Mid-Atlantic regions. This simulated migratory pattern corroborates a previous migratory map based on the distribution of fall armyworm haplotype profiles. We found a significant regression between the simulated first week of moth immigration and first week of moth capture (for locations which captured ≥10 moths), which on average indicated that the model simulated first immigration 2 weeks before first captures in pheromone traps. The results contribute to knowledge of fall armyworm population ecology on a continental scale and will aid in the prediction and interpretation of inter-annual variability of insect migration patterns including those in response to climatic change and adoption rates of transgenic cultivars.

  20. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    the next growing season, while regenerating from seed at 10% the rate of non-resprouters. Tests of LPX-Mv1 for Australia - a continent with a wide range of fire-adapted ecosystems - show that it produces a 33% improvement in the simulation of vegetation composition compared to the previous version of the model, with more realistic vegetation transitions from forests to woodland/savanna. It also produces a 19% improvement in the simulation of burnt area compared to the original model. Resprouting PFTs dominate tropical and temperate areas where the climate is semi-humid but are not common in very dry or very wet areas. Comparison with site-based observations of the abundance of resprouters indicate this is realistic. Ecosystems dominated by resprouters in the simulations recover to pre-fire levels of biomass within 5-7 years, much faster than ecosystems dominated by non-resprouters; again this is confirmed by our analyses of the observations. Simulations of the response to projected future climate change show that the incorporation of adaptive bark thickness and of resprouting has a significant effect on terrestrial carbon stocks in fire-affected areas.

  1. Laboratory modeling of aspects of large fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrier, G. F.; Fendell, F. E.; Fleeter, R. D.; Gat, N.; Cohen, L. M.

    1984-04-01

    The design, construction, and use of a laboratory-scale combustion tunnel for simulating aspects of large-scale free-burning fires are described. The facility consists of an enclosed, rectangular-cross section (1.12 m wide x 1.27 m high) test section of about 5.6 m in length, fitted with large sidewall windows for viewing. A long upwind section permits smoothing (by screens and honeycombs) of a forced-convective flow, generated by a fan and adjustable in wind speed (up to a maximum speed of about 20 m/s prior to smoothing). Special provision is made for unconstrained ascent of a strongly buoyant plume, the duct over the test section being about 7 m in height. Also, a translatable test-section ceiling can be used to prevent jet-type spreading into the duct of the impressed flow; that is, the wind arriving at a site (say) half-way along the test section can be made (by ceiling movement) approximately the same as that at the leading edge of the test section with a fully open duct (fully retracted ceiling). Of particular interest here are the rate and structure of wind-aided flame spread streamwise along a uniform matrix of vertically oriented small fuel elements (such as toothpicks or coffee-strirrers), implanted in clay stratum on the test-section floor; this experiment is motivated by flame spread across strewn debris, such as may be anticipated in an urban environment after severe blast damage.

  2. New Approach in Modelling Indonesian Peat Fire Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Saharjo, B.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Vetrita, Y.; Zhang, X.; Hagen, S. C.; Nurhayati, A. D.; Graham, L.

    2017-12-01

    Peat fires are a serious problem for Indonesia, producing devastating environmental effects and making the country the 3rd largest emitter of CO2. Extensive fires ravaged vast areas of peatlands in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua during the pronounced El-Nino of 2015, causing international concern when the resultant haze blanketed Indonesia and neighboring countries, severely impacting the health of millions of people. Our recent unprecedented in-situ studies of aerosol and gas emissions from 35 peat fires of varying depths near Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan have documented the range and variability of emissions from these major fires. We strongly suggest revisions to previously recommended IPPC's emission factors (EFs) from peat fires, notably: CO2 (-8%), CH4 (-55%), NH3 (-86%), and CO (+39%). Our findings clearly showed that Indonesian carbon equivalent measurements (100 years) might have been 19% less than what current IPCC emission factors indicate. The results also demonstrate the toxic air quality in the area with HCN, which is almost only emitted by biomass burning, accounting for 0.28% and the carcinogenic compound formaldehyde 0.04% of emissions. However, considerable variation in emissions may exist between peat fires of different Indonesian peat formations, illustrating the need for additional regional field emissions measurements for parameterizing peatland emissions models for all of Indonesia's major peatland areas. Through the continuous mutual research collaboration between the Indonesian and USA scientists, we will implement our standardized field-based analyses of fuels, hydrology, peat burning characteristics and fire emissions to characterize the three major Indonesian peatland formations across four study provinces (Central Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi and West Papua). We will provide spatial and temporal drivers of the modeled emissions and validate them at a national level using biomass burning emissions estimations derived from Visible

  3. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  4. Modeling fire-driven deforestation potential in Amazonia under current and projected climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Page, Y.; van der Werf, G.R.; Morton, D.C.; Pereira, J.M.C.

    2010-01-01

    Fire is a widely used tool to prepare deforested areas for agricultural use in Amazonia. Deforestation is currently concentrated in seasonal forest types along the arc of deforestation, where dry-season conditions facilitate burning of clear-felled vegetation. Interior Amazon forests, however, are

  5. The FireWork air quality forecast system with near-real-time biomass burning emissions: Recent developments and evaluation of performance for the 2015 North American wildfire season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Anderson, Kerry; Moran, Michael D; Beaulieu, Paul-André; Davignon, Didier; Cousineau, Sophie

    2016-09-01

    Environment and Climate Change Canada's FireWork air quality (AQ) forecast system for North America with near-real-time biomass burning emissions has been running experimentally during the Canadian wildfire season since 2013. The system runs twice per day with model initializations at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and produces numerical AQ forecast guidance with 48-hr lead time. In this work we describe the FireWork system, which incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) as an input to the operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS). To demonstrate the capability of the system we analyzed two forecast periods in 2015 (June 2-July 15, and August 15-31) when fire activity was high, and observed fire-smoke-impacted areas in western Canada and the western United States. Modeled PM2.5 surface concentrations were compared with surface measurements and benchmarked with results from the operational RAQDPS, which did not consider near-real-time biomass burning emissions. Model performance statistics showed that FireWork outperformed RAQDPS with improvements in forecast hourly PM2.5 across the region; the results were especially significant for stations near the path of fire plume trajectories. Although the hourly PM2.5 concentrations predicted by FireWork still displayed bias for areas with active fires for these two periods (mean bias [MB] of -7.3 µg m(-3) and 3.1 µg m(-3)), it showed better forecast skill than the RAQDPS (MB of -11.7 µg m(-3) and -5.8 µg m(-3)) and demonstrated a greater ability to capture temporal variability of episodic PM2.5 events (correlation coefficient values of 0.50 and 0.69 for FireWork compared to 0.03 and 0.11 for RAQDPS). A categorical forecast comparison based on an hourly PM2.5 threshold of 30 µg m(-3) also showed improved scores for probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI), and false alarm rate (FAR). Smoke from wildfires

  6. A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo

    1991-01-01

    for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...

  7. Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2015-04-01

    Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision

  8. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2009-01-01

    This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

  9. Post Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis Using a Fault Tree Logic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, Hyun Tae; Park, Jun Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Every nuclear power plant should have its own fire hazard analysis including the fire safe shutdown analysis. A safe shutdown (SSD) analysis is performed to demonstrate the capability of the plant to safely shut down for a fire in any given area. The basic assumption is that there will be fire damage to all cables and equipment located within a common fire area. When evaluating the SSD capabilities of the plant, based on a review of the systems, equipment and cables within each fire area, it should be determined which shutdown paths are either unaffected or least impacted by a postulated fire within the fire area. Instead of seeking a success path for safe shutdown given all cables and equipment damaged by a fire, there can be an alternative approach to determine the SSD capability: fault tree analysis. This paper introduces the methodology for fire SSD analysis using a fault tree logic model

  10. Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Seasonal Fires Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, Charles M.

    2010-01-01

    The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, extending from the southern fringes of the Sahara to the Equator, and stretching west to east from the Atlantic to the Indian ocean coasts, plays a prominent role in the distribution of Saharan dust and other airborne matter around the region and to other parts of the world, the genesis of global atmospheric circulation, and the birth of such major (and often catastrophic) events as hurricanes. Therefore, this NSSA region represents a critical variable in the global climate change equation. Recent satellite-based studies have revealed that the NSSA region has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be a major driver of the regional carbon, energy, and water cycles. We acknowledge that the rainy season in the NSSA region is from April to September while biomass burning occurs mainly during the dry season (October to March). Nevertheless, these two phenomena are indirectly coupled to each other through a chain of complex processes and conditions, including land-cover and surface-albedo changes, the carbon cycle, evapotranspiration, drought, desertification, surface water runoff, ground water recharge, and variability in atmospheric composition, heating rates, and circulation. In this presentation, we will examine the theoretical linkages between these processes, discuss the preliminary results based on satellite data analysis, and provide an overview of plans for more integrated research to be conducted over the next few years.

  11. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  12. Modeling seasonal changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon 13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillette, D.A.; Box, E.O.

    1986-01-01

    A two-dimensional (latitude-altitude) model of atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13 C was constructed to simulate some features of seasonal carbon cycle fluctuations. The model simulates air-sea exchange, atmospheric diffusion, and fossil fuel carbon sources, which are functions of time and latitude. In addition, it uses biosphere-atmosphere fluxes of carbon that are based on global-scale biological models of vegetation growth and decay. Results of the model show fair agreement with observational results for CO 2 and δ 13 C seasonal fluctuations. Their model results have far northern fluctuations with smaller amplitudes than are observed. Analysis of sources of CO 2 change at given latitudes shows that, for far southern latitudes, southern hemisphere biospheric fluxes are dominant in affecting the seasonal CO 2 fluctuations. Long-term decrease of δ 13 C for the model is larger than for observations. This may be due to errors in the formulation for oceanic fluxes for 13 C in the model or to a net uptake of carbon by the biosphere

  13. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  14. EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

  15. Nearly Increased Dry-season Flows after Reforesting Degraded Fire-climax Grassland in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Meerveld, I. H. J.; Zhang, J.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Tripoli, R.; Quiñones, C. M. O.

    2017-12-01

    After decades of logging and shifting cultivation, vast tracts in tropical SE Asia have turned to fire-climax grassland. Whilst the hydrological functioning of Imperata grasslands has been studied little, the general perception is they are major contributors to downstream flooding and siltation. As such, Imperata grasslands are targeted widely for reforestation in the expectation to improve regional hydrology. Yet, numerous small catchment studies within and outside the tropics have typically shown decreased annual water yield after reforestation of grass- or cropland, with the bulk of the decrease observed during times of baseflow. Yet, it is theoretically possible that the higher water use of the planted trees is compensated by improved soil infiltration capacity after reforestation which should lead to higher baseflows, the so-called infiltration trade-off. To examine a rare claim of increased baseflow after reforesting an Imperata grassland in northern Leyte (Philippines) we compared a 3.2 ha degraded headwater catchment under Imperata with a nearby 8.7 ha catchment under 23-year-old reforestation. Both catchments were underlain by mafic rock, had perennial flow and were demonstrably watertight, thus allowing comparisons to be made. Grassland saturated soil hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) decreased from 10 mm h-1 at the surface to 2.9 mm h-1 at 20-40 cm depth and <1 mm h-1 below 60 cm, suggesting not only possibly frequent overland flow but also perched groundwater conditions at 20 cm depth. By contrast, Ksat of the forest soil decreased from 370 mm h-1 in the top 5 cm via 60 mm h-1 at 20 cm, with lower values found only deeper in the profile (7.3 and 2.6 mm h-1 at 60 and 90 cm, respectively). Thus, stormflows Qq for the reforestation were smaller and less `flashy' compared to the grassland catchment. Depending on how the annual reduction in catchment-wide infiltration (assumed equal to the difference in total Qq between catchments) was estimated, the trade

  16. The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla

    2013-01-01

    We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...

  17. First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown

    1997-01-01

    A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.

  18. Numerical Modelling of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions and the 2003 Canberra Bushfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.

    2010-12-01

    It is well known that the behaviour of a wildland fire is strongly associated with the conditions of its surrounding atmosphere. However, the two-way interactions between fire behaviour and the atmospheric conditions are not well understood. A numerical model is used to simulate wildland fires so that the nature of these fire-atmosphere interactions, and how they might affect fire behaviour, can be further investigated. The 2003 Canberra bushfires are used as a case study due to their highly destructive and unusual behaviour. On the 18th January 2003, these fires spread to the urban suburbs of Canberra, resulting in the loss of four lives and the destruction of over 500 homes. Fire-atmosphere interactions are believed to have played an important role in making these fires so destructive. WRF-Fire is used to perform real data simulations of the 2003 Canberra bushfires. WRF-Fire is a coupled fire-atmosphere model, which combines a semi-empirical fire spread model with an atmospheric model, allowing it to directly simulate the two-way interactions between a fire and its surrounding atmosphere. These simulations show the impact of the presence of a fire on conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer. This modification of the atmosphere, resulting from the injection of heat and moisture released by the fire, appears to have a direct feedback onto the overall fire behaviour. The bushfire simulations presented in this paper provide important scientific insights into the nature of fire-atmosphere interactions for a real situation. It is expected that they will also help fire managers in Australia to better understand why the 2003 Canberra bushfires were so destructive, as well as to gain improved insight into bushfire behaviour in general.

  19. Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendon, Harry H.; Wang, Guomin [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-06-15

    The potential for predicting interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current along the west coast of Australia is addressed. The Leeuwin Current flows poleward against the prevailing winds and transports warm-fresh tropical water southward along the coast, which has a great impact on local climate and ecosystems. Variations of the current are tightly tied to El Nino/La Nina (weak during El Nino and strong during La Nina). Skilful seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current to 9-month lead time is achieved by empirical downscaling of dynamical coupled model forecasts of El Nino and the associated upper ocean heat content anomalies off the north west coast of Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast system. Prediction of the Leeuwin Current is possible because the heat content fluctuations off the north west coast are the primary driver of interannual annual variations of the current and these heat content variations are tightly tied to the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. POAMA can skilfully predict both the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina and the subsequent transmission of the heat content anomalies from the Pacific onto the north west coast. (orig.)

  20. Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.

    1993-01-01

    Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests

  1. Fires involving radioactive materials : transference model; operative recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, C.E.; Puntarulo, L.J.; Canibano, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    In all aspects related to the nuclear activity, the occurrence of an explosion, fire or burst type accident, with or without victims, is directly related to the characteristics of the site. The present work analyses the different parameters involved, describing a transference model and recommendations for evaluation and control of the radiological risk for firemen. Special emphasis is placed on the measurement of the variables existing in this kind of operations

  2. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...

  3. Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla

    2011-01-01

    Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...

  4. Impacts of short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire on a ground nesting bird in the central hardwoods region of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, H. Tyler; Krementz, David G.

    2016-01-01

    Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or large

  5. Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Tyler Pittman

    Full Text Available Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha. This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated. Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%. We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter but did not select for small

  6. Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, H Tyler; Krementz, David G

    2016-01-01

    Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or

  7. FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System - A program for fire danger rating analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1997-01-01

    A computer program, FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System, provides methods for evaluating the performance of fire danger rating indexes. The relationship between fire danger indexes and historical fire occurrence and size is examined through logistic regression and percentiles. Historical seasonal trends of fire danger and fire occurrence can be...

  8. The Shifting Seasonal Mean Autoregressive Model and Seasonality in the Central England Monthly Temperature Series, 1772-2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Kang, Jian; Terasvirta, Timo

    In this paper we introduce an autoregressive model with seasonal dummy variables in which coefficients of seasonal dummies vary smoothly and deterministically over time. The error variance of the model is seasonally heteroskedastic and multiplicatively decomposed, the decomposition being similar ...... temperature series. More specifically, the idea is to find out in which way and by how much the monthly temperatures are varying over time during the period of more than 240 years, if they do. Misspecification tests are applied to the estimated model and the findings discussed....

  9. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  10. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  11. Effects of Repeated Growing Season Prescribed Fire on the Structure and Composition of Pine–Hardwood Forests in the Southeastern Piedmont, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Reilly

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We examined the effects of repeated growing season prescribed fire on the structure and composition of mixed pine–hardwood forests in the southeastern Piedmont region, Georgia, USA. Plots were burned two to four times over an eight-year period with low intensity surface fires during one of four six-week long periods from early April to mid-September. Density of saplings (0.25–11.6 cm diameter at breast height was significantly reduced after one or two fires during the first four-year period. Sapling density declined with additional burning over the next four years, but density of mesic hardwoods including sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua and red maple (Acer rubrum remained relatively high (~865 stems ha−1. Repeated burning had little effect on density or basal area of trees (≥11.7 cm dbh and changes in overstory structure were limited to small increases in the quadratic mean diameter of all trees and pines. We found little evidence to suggest differential effects on structure or composition due to timing of burn within the growing season. Although repeated growing season burning alters midstory structure and composition, burning alone is unlikely to result in immediate shifts in overstory composition or structure in mixed pine–hardwood forests of the southeastern Piedmont region.

  12. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  13. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  14. South American smoke coverage and flux estimations from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Christopher, S. A.; Prins, E. M.; Gasso, S.; Reid, E.; Theisen, M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hunter, J.; Eck, T.

    2002-05-01

    The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') project is a joint Navy, NOAA, NASA and university project to integrate satellite products with numerical aerosol models to produce a real time fire and emissions inventory. At the center of the program is the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF ABBA) which provides real-time fire products and the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System to model smoke transport. In this presentation we give a brief overview of the system and methods, but emphasize new estimations of smoke coverage and emission fluxes from the South American continent. Temporal and smoke patterns compare reasonably well with AERONET and MODIS aerosol optical depth products for the 2000 and 2001 fire seasons. Fluxes are computed by relating NAAPS output fields and MODIS optical depth maps with modeled wind fields. Smoke emissions and transport fluxes out of the continent can then be estimated by perturbing the modeled emissions to gain agreement with the satellite and wind products. Regional smoke emissions are also presented for grass and forest burning.

  15. Two Strain Dengue Model with Temporary Cross Immunity and Seasonality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguiar, Maira; Ballesteros, Sebastien; Stollenwerk, Nico

    2010-01-01

    Models on dengue fever epidemiology have previously shown critical fluctuations with power law distributions and also deterministic chaos in some parameter regions due to the multi-strain structure of the disease pathogen. In our first model including well known biological features, we found a rich dynamical structure including limit cycles, symmetry breaking bifurcations, torus bifurcations, coexisting attractors including isola solutions and deterministic chaos (as indicated by positive Lyapunov exponents) in a much larger parameter region, which is also biologically more plausible than the previous results of other researches. Based on these findings we will investigate the model structures further including seasonality.

  16. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

  17. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landucci, Gabriele [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Universita di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Molag, Menso [Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht (Netherlands); Cozzani, Valerio, E-mail: valerio.cozzani@unibo.it [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, Via Terracini 28 - 40131 Bologna (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  18. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Cozzani, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  19. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  20. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

  1. Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penelope Morgan; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon; Theresa B. Jain; Andrew T. Hudak; Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Zachery A. Holden; Eva K. Strand

    2014-01-01

    Comprehensive assessment of ecological change after fires have burned forests and rangelands is important if we are to understand, predict and measure fire effects. We highlight the challenges in effective assessment of fire and burn severity in the field and using both remote sensing and simulation models. We draw on diverse recent research for guidance on assessing...

  2. Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

    2007-01-01

    We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

  3. Developments in modelling of thermal radiation from pool and jet fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.

    2016-01-01

    In the past decades, the standard approach in the modelling of consequences of pool and jet fires would be to describe these fires as tilted cylindrical shaped radiating flame surfaces, having a specific SEP (Surface Emissive Power). Some fine tuning on pool fires has been done by Rew and Hulbert in

  4. Modelling of Fire in an Open Car Park

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marton, Timea; Dederichs, Anne Simone; Giuliani, Luisa

    2015-01-01

    Steel car parks exhibit high vulnerability to fire, as a consequence of the degradation of the steel mechanical properties at high temperatures and of the combustible type and amount. Real fire accidents in open car parks demonstrated a much faster and extended fire spread than predictions......, assuming that a fire spread rate of 12 min and consider at most 3-4 vehicles on fire at the same time. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is applied in this current paper to study fire spread between cars. The outcomes of the investigations show that the fire spread is strongly influenced by the geometrical...... layout and that the distance between cars plays a determinant role on the fire spread rate and ignition of adjacent cars. In particular it was found that the fire spread can be faster than 12 minutes in the case of the cars parked 40 and 60 cm from each other....

  5. Numerical Field Model Simulation of Full Scale Fire Tests in a Closed Spherical/Cylindrical Vessel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    the behavior of an actual fire on board a ship. The computer model will be verified by the experimental data obtained in Fire-l. It is important to... behavior in simulations where convection is important. The upwind differencing scheme takes into account the unsymmetrical phenomenon of convection by using...TANK CELL ON THE NORTH SIDE) FOR A * * PARTICULAR FIRE CELL * * COSUMS (I,J) = THE ARRAY TO STORE THE SIMILIAR VALUE FOR THE FIRE * * CELL TO THE SOUTH

  6. Assets. Biological Assets. The Seasonal Model in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atanasiu Pop

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to support the agricultural exploitation we tried in this paper to develop a model that involves a seasonal component at entity’s level. Consequently, we made a study to an exploitation acting in the vegetal field by collecting accounting informations from the data base entity and by informations that were processed using different statistical functions. So, through the proposed model we try to make certain previsions taking into account the economic situation in which the agricultural exploitation works.

  7. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  8. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie Yong [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: yxie@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianxue [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); Jiang Jun [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2006-12-15

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables.

  9. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Jiang Jun

    2006-01-01

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables

  10. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  11. Focus on the studies in support of fire safety analysis. IRSN modelling approach for nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espargilliere, Julien; Meyrand, Raphael; Vinot, Thierry [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-12-15

    For a fire safety analysis, in order to comply with nuclear safety goals, a nuclear fuel facility operator has to define the elements important for safety to be maintained, even in the case of a fire. One of the key points of this fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. This paper presents the IRSN method applied to a case study to assess fire scenarios which have the most harmful effects on safety targets. The layout consists in a central room (fire cell) containing three glove boxes with radioactive material and three electrical cabinets. This room is linked to two connecting compartments (the fire cell and these two compartments define the containment cell) and then to two corridors. Each room is equipped with a mechanical ventilation system, and a pressure cascade is established from the corridors to the central room. A fire scenario was studied with fire ignition occurring in an electrical cabinet. This scenario has a set of safety goals (prevention of fire cell and containment device failure, propagation of the fire). This case study was conducted with the IRSN code SYLVIA based on two zones modelling. Safety goals were associated with key parameters and performance criteria to be fulfilled. Modelling assumptions were defined in order to maximize physical effects of the fire. Sensitivity studies were also conducted on key parameters such as oxygen limitation, equivalent-fuel definition. Eventually, a critical analysis of the code models was carried out.

  12. The Rothermel surface fire spread model and associated developments: A comprehensive explanation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2018-01-01

    The Rothermel surface fire spread model, with some adjustments by Frank A. Albini in 1976, has been used in fire and fuels management systems since 1972. It is generally used with other models including fireline intensity and flame length. Fuel models are often used to define fuel input parameters. Dynamic fuel models use equations for live fuel curing. Models have...

  13. Modelling the Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2015-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using 50-year, high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. For the winter overturning circulation, the climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation.

  14. acme: The Amendable Coal-Fire Modeling Exercise. A C++ Class Library for the Numerical Simulation of Coal-Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuttke, Manfred W.

    2017-04-01

    At LIAG, we use numerical models to develop and enhance understanding of coupled transport processes and to predict the dynamics of the system under consideration. Topics include geothermal heat utilization, subrosion processes, and spontaneous underground coal fires. Although the details make it inconvenient if not impossible to apply a single code implementation to all systems, their investigations go along similar paths: They all depend on the solution of coupled transport equations. We thus saw a need for a modular code system with open access for the various communities to maximize the shared synergistic effects. To this purpose we develop the oops! ( open object-oriented parallel solutions) - toolkit, a C++ class library for the numerical solution of mathematical models of coupled thermal, hydraulic and chemical processes. This is used to develop problem-specific libraries like acme( amendable coal-fire modeling exercise), a class library for the numerical simulation of coal-fires and applications like kobra (Kohlebrand, german for coal-fire), a numerical simulation code for standard coal-fire models. Basic principle of the oops!-code system is the provision of data types for the description of space and time dependent data fields, description of terms of partial differential equations (pde), their discretisation and solving methods. Coupling of different processes, described by their particular pde is modeled by an automatic timescale-ordered operator-splitting technique. acme is a derived coal-fire specific application library, depending on oops!. If specific functionalities of general interest are implemented and have been tested they will be assimilated into the main oops!-library. Interfaces to external pre- and post-processing tools are easily implemented. Thus a construction kit which can be arbitrarily amended is formed. With the kobra-application constructed with acme we study the processes and propagation of shallow coal seam fires in particular in

  15. 4K Video Traffic Prediction using Seasonal Autoregressive Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Marković

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available From the perspective of average viewer, high definition video streams such as HD (High Definition and UHD (Ultra HD are increasing their internet presence year over year. This is not surprising, having in mind expansion of HD streaming services, such as YouTube, Netflix etc. Therefore, high definition video streams are starting to challenge network resource allocation with their bandwidth requirements and statistical characteristics. Need for analysis and modeling of this demanding video traffic has essential importance for better quality of service and experience support. In this paper we use an easy-to-apply statistical model for prediction of 4K video traffic. Namely, seasonal autoregressive modeling is applied in prediction of 4K video traffic, encoded with HEVC (High Efficiency Video Coding. Analysis and modeling were performed within R programming environment using over 17.000 high definition video frames. It is shown that the proposed methodology provides good accuracy in high definition video traffic modeling.

  16. A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

    1996-11-01

    Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.

  17. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Development and analysis of a 12-year daily 1-km forest fire dataset across North America from NOAA/AVHRR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiliang Pu; Zhanqing Li; Peng Gong; Ivan Csiszar; Robert Fraser; Wei-Min Hao; Shobha Kondragunta; Fuzhong Weng

    2007-01-01

    Fires in boreal and temperate forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. While forest fires in North America (NA) have been surveyed extensively by U.S. and Canadian forest services, most fire records are limited to seasonal statistics without information on temporal evolution and spatial expansion. Such dynamic information is crucial for modeling fire...

  19. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan S Schaffer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  20. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F

    2013-10-01

    Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  1. Development of Seasonal ARIMA Models for Traffic Noise Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guarnaccia Claudio

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a time series analysis approach is adopted to monitor and predict a traffic noise levels dataset, measured in a site of Messina, Italy. In general, acoustical noise shows a high prediction complexity, since its slope is strongly related to the variability of the sources and to intrinsic randomness. In the analysed site the predominant source is road traffic, that has a periodic and non-stationary behaviour. The study of the time evolution of this hazardous agent is very useful to assess the impact to human health and activities. The time series models adopted in this paper are of the stochastic seasonal ARIMA class; these types of model are based on the strong periodicity registered in the acoustical equivalent levels. The observed periodicity is related to the highly variability of urban traffic in the different days of the week. Three different seasonal ARIMA models are proposed and calibrated on a rich dataset of 800 sound level measurements. The predictive capabilities of these techniques are encouraging. The implemented models show a good forecasting performances in terms of low residuals, i.e. difference between observed and estimated noise values. The residuals are analysed by means of statistical indexes, plots and tests.

  2. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF

  3. COMPBRN III: a computer code for modeling compartment fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, V.; Siu, N.; Apostolakis, G.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1986-07-01

    The computer code COMPBRN III deterministically models the behavior of compartment fires. This code is an improvement of the original COMPBRN codes. It employs a different air entrainment model and numerical scheme to estimate properties of the ceiling hot gas layer model. Moreover, COMPBRN III incorporates a number of improvements in shape factor calculations and error checking, which distinguish it from the COMPBRN II code. This report presents the ceiling hot gas layer model employed by COMPBRN III as well as several other modifications. Information necessary to run COMPBRN III, including descriptions of required input and resulting output, are also presented. Simulation of experiments and a sample problem are included to demonstrate the usage of the code. 37 figs., 46 refs

  4. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  5. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildfire Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  6. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  7. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  8. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  9. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  10. Construction and Quantification of the One Top model of the Fire Events PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Han, Sang Hoon

    2008-01-01

    KAERI constructed the one top model of the fire events PSA for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 by using the 'mapping technique'. The mapping technique was developed for the construction and quantification of external events PSA models with a one top model for an internal events PSA. With 'AIMS', the mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include fire rooms, fire ignition frequency, related initiating events, fire transfer events, and the internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. The constructed one top fire PSA model is based on previously conducted fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. In this paper, we introduce the construction procedure and quantification results of the one top model of the fire events PSA by using the mapping technique. As the one top model of the fire events PSA developed in this study is based on the previous study, we also introduce the previous fire PSA approach focused on quantification

  11. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    -Leal et al., 2006). Stolle and Lambin (2003) noted that flammable fuel depends on ... advantages over conventional fire detection and fire monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et ...

  12. Modeling Phosphorous Losses from Seasonal Manure Application Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzies, E.; Walter, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Excess nutrient loading, especially nitrogen and phosphorus, to surface waters is a common and significant problem throughout the United States. While pollution remediation efforts are continuously improving, the most effective treatment remains to limit the source. Appropriate timing of fertilizer application to reduce nutrient losses is currently a hotly debated topic in the Northeastern United States; winter spreading of manure is under special scrutiny. We plan to evaluate the loss of phosphorous to surface waters from agricultural systems under varying seasonal fertilization schemes in an effort to determine the impacts of fertilizers applied throughout the year. The Cayuga Lake basin, located in the Finger Lakes region of New York State, is a watershed dominated by agriculture where a wide array of land management strategies can be found. The evaluation will be conducted on the Fall Creek Watershed, a large sub basin in the Cayuga Lake Watershed. The Fall Creek Watershed covers approximately 33,000 ha in central New York State with approximately 50% of this land being used for agriculture. We plan to use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model a number of seasonal fertilization regimes such as summer only spreading and year round spreading (including winter applications), as well as others. We will use the model to quantify the phosphorous load to surface waters from these different fertilization schemes and determine the impacts of manure applied at different times throughout the year. More detailed knowledge about how seasonal fertilization schemes impact phosphorous losses will provide more information to stakeholders concerning the impacts of agriculture on surface water quality. Our results will help farmers and extensionists make more informed decisions about appropriate timing of manure application for reduced phosphorous losses and surface water degradation as well as aid law makers in improving policy surrounding manure application.

  13. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  14. Design of fire resistant concrete structures, using validated Fem models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erich, S.J.F.; Overbeek, van A.B.M.; Heijden, van der G.H.A.; Pel, L.; Huinink, H.P.; Vervuurt, A.H.J.M.; Schlangen, E.; Schlutter, de G.

    2008-01-01

    Fire safety of buildings and structures is an important issue, and has a great impact on human life and economy. One of the processes negatively affecting the strength of a concrete building or structure during fire is spalling. Many examples exists in which spalling of concrete during fire has

  15. Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt

    2000-01-01

    In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...

  16. What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons

    2015-01-01

    Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...

  17. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...

  18. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vacchiano

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995–2009 and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i winter forest fires, (ii winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter–early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %; lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90–0.95. Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation and winter (negative fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  19. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchiano, Giorgio; Foderi, Cristiano; Berretti, Roberta; Marchi, Enrico; Motta, Renzo

    2018-03-01

    Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995-2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  20. Fire Regime Characteristics along Environmental Gradients in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Vanesa Moreno

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Concern regarding global change has increased the need to understand the relationship between fire regime characteristics and the environment. Pyrogeographical theory suggests that fire regimes are constrained by climate, vegetation and fire ignition processes, but it is not obvious how fire regime characteristics are related to those factors. We used a three-matrix approach with a multivariate statistical methodology that combined an ordination method and fourth-corner analysis for hypothesis testing to investigate the relationship between fire regime characteristics and environmental gradients across Spain. Our results suggest that fire regime characteristics (i.e., density and seasonality of fire activity are constrained primarily by direct gradients based on climate, population, and resource gradients based on forest potential productivity. Our results can be used to establish a predictive model for how fire regimes emerge in order to support fire management, particularly as global environmental changes impact fire regime characteristics.

  1. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  2. Measuring behaviours for escaping from house fires: use of latent variable models to summarise multiple behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploubidis, G B; Edwards, P; Kendrick, D

    2015-12-15

    This paper reports the development and testing of a construct measuring parental fire safety behaviours for planning escape from a house fire. Latent variable modelling of data on parental-reported fire safety behaviours and plans for escaping from a house fire and multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between groups defined by the latent variable modelling and parental-report of having a plan for escaping from a house fire. Data comes from 1112 participants in a cluster randomised controlled trial set in children's centres in 4 study centres in the UK. A two class model provided the best fit to the data, combining responses to five fire safety planning behaviours. The first group ('more behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 86% of participants who were most likely to have a torch, be aware of how their smoke alarm sounds, to have external door and window keys accessible, and exits clear. The second group ('fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 14% of participants who were less likely to report these five behaviours. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants allocated to the 'more behaviours for escaping from a house fire group were 2.5 times more likely to report having an escape plan (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.59-3.86) than those in the "fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire" group. Multiple fire safety behaviour questions can be combined into a single binary summary measure of fire safety behaviours for escaping from a house fire. Our findings will be useful to future studies wishing to use a single measure of fire safety planning behaviour as measures of outcome or exposure. NCT 01452191. Date of registration 13/10/2011.

  3. Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil; Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik

    2013-01-01

    US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea

  4. EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR DESCRIBING FIRE BEHAVIOR IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations. However, according to previous studies, the existing common worldwide fire behavior models used do not correctly estimate the fire behavior in Brazilian commercial hybrid eucalypt plantations. Therefore, this study aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. To meet these objectives, 105 laboratory experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. Dependent and independent variables were fitted through multiple regression analysis. The fire rate of spread proposed model is based on the wind speed, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead fuel moisture content (r2 = 0.86; the flame length model is based on the fuel bed depth, 1-h dead fuel moisture content and wind speed (r2 = 0.72; the fuel consumption proposed model has the 1-h dead fuel moisture, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead dry fuel load as independent variables (r2= 0.80. These models were used to develop a new fire behavior software, the “Eucalyptus Fire Safety System”.

  5. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  6. Burnthrough Modeling of Marine Grade Aluminum Alloy Structural Plates Exposed to Fire

    OpenAIRE

    Rippe, Christian M

    2015-01-01

    Current fire induced burnthrough models of aluminum typically rely solely on temperature thresholds and cannot accurately capture either the occurrence or the time to burnthrough. This research experimentally explores the fire induced burnthrough phenomenon of AA6061-T651 plates under multiple sized exposures and introduces a new burnthrough model based on the near melting creep rupture properties of the material. Fire experiments to induce burnthrough on aluminum plates were conducted us...

  7. Modeling seasonal detection patterns for burrowing owl surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh S. Latif; Kathleen D. Fleming; Cameron Barrows; John T. Rotenberry

    2012-01-01

    To guide monitoring of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in the Coachella Valley, California, USA, we analyzed survey-method-specific seasonal variation in detectability. Point-based call-broadcast surveys yielded high early season detectability that then declined through time, whereas detectability on driving surveys increased through the season. Point surveys...

  8. Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2018-01-01

    The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.

  9. Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Forest fire effects on transpiration: process modeling of sapwood area reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaletz, Sean; Johnson, Edward

    2010-05-01

    Transpiration is a hydrological process that is strongly affected by forest fires. In crown fires, canopy fine fuels (foliage, buds, and small branches) combust, which kills individual trees and stops transpiration of the entire stand. In surface fires (intensities ≤ 2500 kW m-1), however, effects on transpiration are less predictable becuase heat transfer from the passing fireline can injure or kill fine roots, leaves, and sapwood; post-fire transpiration of forest stands is thus governed by fire effects on individual tree water budgets. Here, we consider fire effects on cross-sectional sapwood area. A two-dimensional model of transient bole heating is used to estimate radial isotherms for a range of fireline intensities typical of surface fires. Isotherms are then used to drive three processes by which heat may reduce sapwood area: 1) necrosis of living cells in contact with xylem conduits, which prevents repair of natural embolism; 2) relaxation of viscoelastic conduit wall polymers (cellulose, hemicelloluse, and lignin), which reduces cross-sectional conduit area; and 3) boiling of metastable water under tension, which causes conduit embolism. Results show that these processes operate on different time scales, suggesting that fire effects on transpiration vary with time since fire. The model can be linked with a three-dimensional physical fire spread model to predict size-dependent effects on individual trees, which can be used to estimate scaling of individual tree and stand-level transpiration.

  11. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

    2015-05-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

  12. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  13. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

    2015-01-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

  14. Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

    2003-01-01

    The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

  15. Influence of Fire Mosaics, Habitat Characteristics and Cattle Disturbance on Mammals in Fire-Prone Savanna Landscapes of the Northern Kimberley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radford, Ian J; Gibson, Lesley A; Corey, Ben; Carnes, Karin; Fairman, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Patch mosaic burning, in which fire is used to produce a mosaic of habitat patches representative of a range of fire histories ('pyrodiversity'), has been widely advocated to promote greater biodiversity. However, the details of desired fire mosaics for prescribed burning programs are often unspecified. Threatened small to medium-sized mammals (35 g to 5.5 kg) in the fire-prone tropical savannas of Australia appear to be particularly fire-sensitive. Consequently, a clear understanding of which properties of fire mosaics are most instrumental in influencing savanna mammal populations is critical. Here we use mammal capture data, remotely sensed fire information (i.e. time since last fire, fire frequency, frequency of late dry season fires, diversity of post-fire ages in 3 km radius, and spatial extent of recently burnt, intermediate and long unburnt habitat) and structural habitat attributes (including an index of cattle disturbance) to examine which characteristics of fire mosaics most influence mammals in the north-west Kimberley. We used general linear models to examine the relationship between fire mosaic and habitat attributes on total mammal abundance and richness, and the abundance of the most commonly detected species. Strong negative associations of mammal abundance and richness with frequency of late dry season fires, the spatial extent of recently burnt habitat (post-fire age fire age classes in the models. Our results indicate that both a high frequency of intense late dry season fires and extensive, recently burnt vegetation are likely to be detrimental to mammals in the north Kimberley. A managed fire mosaic that reduces large scale and intense fires, including the retention of ≥4 years unburnt patches, will clearly benefit savanna mammals. We also highlighted the importance of fire mosaics that retain sufficient shelter for mammals. Along with fire, it is clear that grazing by introduced herbivores also needs to be reduced so that habitat quality is

  16. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2017-07-20

    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  17. The validation and analysis of novel stereo-derived smoke plume products from AATSR and their application to fire events from the 2008 Russian fire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, D.; Muller, J.-P.; Yershov, V.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass burning events in Boreal forests generate significant amounts of important greenhouse gases; including CO2, CO, NOx [1,2]. When the injection height is above the boundary layer (BL), the lifespan of these chemicals is greatly extended, as is their spatial distribution [2]. Typically, in chemical transport models (CTMs), BL injection heights are simplified and assumed to be constant. This is in part due to poor data availability. This leads to a reduction in the accuracy of the distribution outputs from such models. To generate better smoke-plume injection height (SPIH) inputs into CTMs, measurements need to be made of smoke plume heights, which can be used as a proxy for aerosol injection height into the atmosphere. One method of measuring SPIH is through stereo-photogrammetry [5], originally applied to optically thick clouds [3,4]. Here, we present validation and analysis of the M6 stereo matching method [5] for the determination of SPIHs applied to AATSR. It is referred to as M6 due to a shared heritage with the other M-series matchers [3,4]. M6 utilizes novel normalization and matching techniques to generate improved results, in terms of coverage and accuracy, over these afore-referenced matchers of similar type. Validation is carried out against independent, coincident and higher resolution SPIH measurements obtained from both the CALIOP instrument carried onboard the NASA-CNES CALIPSO satellite and also against measurements from the MISR Smoke Plume Product obtained by manual measurements using the MINX system (http://www.openchannelsoftware.com/projects/MINX) with the MISR instrument onboard the NASA satellite Terra. The results of this inter-comparison show an excellent agreement between AATSR and the CALIOP and MISR measurements. Further an inter-comparison between a heritage M-series matcher, M4 [3], also against MISR data demonstrates the significant improvement in SPIH generated by M6. [1] Crutzen, P. J., L. E. Heidt, et al. (1979). "Biomass

  18. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    1986-01-01

    Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.

  19. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  20. Tunnel fire testing and modeling the Morgex North tunnel experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Borghetti, Fabio; Gandini, Paolo; Frassoldati, Alessio; Tavelli, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This book aims to cast light on all aspects of tunnel fires, based on experimental activities and theoretical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. In particular, the authors describe a transient full-scale fire test (~15 MW), explaining how they designed and performed the experimental activity inside the Morgex North tunnel in Italy. The entire organization of the experiment is described, from preliminary evaluations to the solutions found for management of operational difficulties and safety issues. This fire test allowed the collection of different measurements (temperature, air velocity, smoke composition, pollutant species) useful for validating and improving CFD codes and for testing the real behavior of the tunnel and its safety systems during a diesel oil fire with a significant heat release rate. Finally, the fire dynamics are compared with empirical correlations, CFD simulations, and literature measurements obtained in other similar tunnel fire tests. This book will be of interest to all ...

  1. Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Flerida Regine; Po, Rodolfo; Montero, Neil; Addawe, Rizavel

    2017-11-01

    Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.

  2. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  3. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  4. Computational fluid dynamics in fire engineering theory, modelling and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, Kwok Kit

    2009-01-01

    Fire and combustion presents a significant engineering challenge to mechanical, civil and dedicated fire engineers, as well as specialists in the process and chemical, safety, buildings and structural fields. We are reminded of the tragic outcomes of 'untenable' fire disasters such as at King's Cross underground station or Switzerland's St Gotthard tunnel. In these and many other cases, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at the forefront of active research into unravelling the probable causes of fires and helping to design structures and systems to ensure that they are less likely in the f

  5. Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Drew Clayton

    Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed

  6. Modeling In-Stream Hydro-Geomorphic Processes After 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires can have significant impacts on hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Post-fire sediment transport and runoff generation vary by burn severity, precipitation, and vegetation. A need exists to understand these variable relationships and improve parameterization of post-fire hydro-geomorphic models. This research aims to model pre-fire geomorphic and hydrologic processes in Williams Canyon, a watershed burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We develop the KINematic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) model with Geographical Information System (GIS)-based information, including a Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil classification, precipitation, and soil burn severity for a local reference watershed that is unburned. We transfer these parameters to a channel reach in Williams Canyon (Williams Downstream) and adjust them toward post-fire conditions. We model runoff and sediment yield for several storms following the fire. Three post-fire terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) images (21 April 2013, 14 September 2013, and 16 September 2014) are used to estimate total erosion and deposition at the reach scale. We use the LiDAR-based information to calibrate the post-fire model. Preliminary modeling results indicate 3870-125 kg/ha of sediment in the Williams Downstream reach. The uncalibrated model overestimated (410% in the first year) and underestimated (87.2% in the second year) the erosion. Model calibration reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of sediment to 0.016% for the first year and 0.09% for the second year. The parameters calibrated for the Williams Downstream channel reach will be used to develop models for seven other channel reaches within the area burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire, where the performance can be evaluated with LiDAR estimates. Results of this research will enhance our understanding of wildfire disturbance on coupled hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Findings will also improve model parameterization that can

  7. Linen Fire as Biosorbent to Remove Heavy Metal Ions From Wastewater Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ildar G. Shaikhiev

    2014-01-01

    The possibility of using linen fires – lnopererabotk i waste as a sorption material for the extraction of heavy metal ions from wastewater modeling. It is shown that treatment with acid solutions linen fires a low concentration increases the surface area of linen fires and thus sorption capacity for heavy metal ions. The values of the maximum sorption capacity ions Fe (III), Co (II), Ni (II) and Zn (II) under static and dynamic conditions. IR spectroscopy...

  8. Modelling the effect of fire frequency on runoff and erosion in north-central Portugal using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Mohammadreza; Nunes, João Pedro; González Pelayo, Oscar; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

    2017-04-01

    Models can be valuable for foreseeing the hydrological effects of fires and to plan and execute post-fire management alternatives. In this study, the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model was utilized to simulate runoff and soil erosion in recently burned maritime pine plantations with different fire regimes, in a wet Mediterranean area of north-central Portugal. The MMF model was adjusted for burned zones in order to accommodate seasonal patterns in runoff and soil erosion, attributed to changes in soil water repellency and vegetation recovery. The model was then assessed by applying it for a sum of 18 experimental micro-plots (0.25 m2) at 9 1x-burnt and 9 4x-burnt slopes, using both literature-based and calibrated parameters, with the collected data used to assess the robustness of each parameterization. The estimate of erosion was more exact than that of runoff, with a general Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.54. Slope angle and the soil's effective hydrological depth (which relies on upon vegetation and additionally crop cover) were found to be the primary parameters enhancing model results, and different hydrological depths were expected to separate between the two differentiating fire regimes. This relative analysis demonstrated that most existing benchmark parameters can be utilized to apply MMF in burnt pine regions with moderate severity to support post-fire management; however it also showed that further endeavours ought to concentrate on mapping soil depth and vegetation cover to enhance these simulations.

  9. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  10. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  11. The Feasibility of Multiscale Modeling of Tunnel Fires Using FDS 6

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Colella, Francesco; Rein, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    The HVAC component of FDS 6 was used to divide a 1.2km tunnel into a 3D near fire area and a 1D area further away from the fire in order to investigate the feasibility of multiscale modeling of tunnel fires with this new feature in FDS. The two sub-models were coupled directly. The results were...... compared with reference works on multiscale modeling and the outcome is considered positive, with a deviation of less than 5% in magnitude of relevant parameters, yet with a significant reduction of the simulation runtime. As such, the multiscale method is deemed feasible for simulating tunnel fires in FDS......6. However, the simplifications that are made in this work require further investigation in order to take full advantage of the potential of this computational method. INTRODUCTION Multiscale modeling for tunnel flows and fires has previously been studied using RANS general purpose CFD software...

  12. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar

    2014-01-01

    Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

  13. Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

  14. A non-Gaussian generalisation of the Airline model for robust Seasonal Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aston, J.; Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    In their seminal book Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Box and Jenkins (1976) introduce the Airline model, which is still routinely used for the modelling of economic seasonal time series. The Airline model is for a differenced time series (in levels and seasons) and constitutes a

  15. Simulation of a Large Wildfire in a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Baptiste Filippi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Aullene fire devastated more than 3000 ha of Mediterranean maquis and pine forest in July 2009. The simulation of combustion processes, as well as atmospheric dynamics represents a challenge for such scenarios because of the various involved scales, from the scale of the individual flames to the larger regional scale. A coupled approach between the Meso-NH (Meso-scale Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric model running in LES (Large Eddy Simulation mode and the ForeFire fire spread model is proposed for predicting fine- to large-scale effects of this extreme wildfire, showing that such simulation is possible in a reasonable time using current supercomputers. The coupling involves the surface wind to drive the fire, while heat from combustion and water vapor fluxes are injected into the atmosphere at each atmospheric time step. To be representative of the phenomenon, a sub-meter resolution was used for the simulation of the fire front, while atmospheric simulations were performed with nested grids from 2400-m to 50-m resolution. Simulations were run with or without feedback from the fire to the atmospheric model, or without coupling from the atmosphere to the fire. In the two-way mode, the burnt area was reproduced with a good degree of realism at the local scale, where an acceleration in the valley wind and over sloping terrain pushed the fire line to locations in accordance with fire passing point observations. At the regional scale, the simulated fire plume compares well with the satellite image. The study explores the strong fire-atmosphere interactions leading to intense convective updrafts extending above the boundary layer, significant downdrafts behind the fire line in the upper plume, and horizontal wind speeds feeding strong inflow into the base of the convective updrafts. The fire-induced dynamics is induced by strong near-surface sensible heat fluxes reaching maximum values of 240 kW m − 2 . The dynamical production of turbulent kinetic

  16. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  17. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  18. Modeling wildland fire containment with uncertain flame length and fireline width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romain Mees; David Strauss; Richard Chase

    1993-01-01

    We describe a mathematical model for the probability that a fireline succeeds in containing a fire. The probability increases as the fireline width increases, and also as the fire's flame length decreases. More interestingly, uncertainties in width and flame length affect the computed containment probabilities, and can thus indirectly affect the optimum allocation...

  19. Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney

    2010-01-01

    Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...

  20. Using Modeling and Rehearsal to Teach Fire Safety to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P.; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to…

  1. First-order fire effects on herbs and Shrubs: present knowledge and process modeling needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Stephan; Melanie Miller; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Herbaceous plants and shrubs have received little attention in terms of fire effects modeling despite their critical role in ecosystem integrity and resilience after wildfires and prescribed burns. In this paper, we summarize current knowledge of direct effects of fire on herb and shrub (including cacti) vegetative tissues and seed banks, propose key components for...

  2. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  3. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability over Africa using AERONET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Hannah M.; Garland, Rebecca M.; Thatcher, Marcus; Landman, Willem A.; Dedekind, Zane; van der Merwe, Jacobus; Engelbrecht, Francois A.

    2017-11-01

    The sensitivity of climate models to the characterization of African aerosol particles is poorly understood. Africa is a major source of dust and biomass burning aerosols and this represents an important research gap in understanding the impact of aerosols on radiative forcing of the climate system. Here we evaluate the current representation of aerosol particles in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) with ground-based remote retrievals across Africa, and additionally provide an analysis of observed aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550 nm) and Ångström exponent data from 34 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Analysis of the 34 long-term AERONET sites confirms the importance of dust and biomass burning emissions to the seasonal cycle and magnitude of AOD550 nm across the continent and the transport of these emissions to regions outside of the continent. In general, CCAM captures the seasonality of the AERONET data across the continent. The magnitude of modeled and observed multiyear monthly average AOD550 nm overlap within ±1 standard deviation of each other for at least 7 months at all sites except the Réunion St Denis Island site (Réunion St. Denis). The timing of modeled peak AOD550 nm in southern Africa occurs 1 month prior to the observed peak, which does not align with the timing of maximum fire counts in the region. For the western and northern African sites, it is evident that CCAM currently overestimates dust in some regions while others (e.g., the Arabian Peninsula) are better characterized. This may be due to overestimated dust lifetime, or that the characterization of the soil for these areas needs to be updated with local information. The CCAM simulated AOD550 nm for the global domain is within the spread of previously published results from CMIP5 and AeroCom experiments for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols. The model's performance provides confidence for using the model to estimate large-scale regional impacts

  4. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability over Africa using AERONET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Horowitz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of climate models to the characterization of African aerosol particles is poorly understood. Africa is a major source of dust and biomass burning aerosols and this represents an important research gap in understanding the impact of aerosols on radiative forcing of the climate system. Here we evaluate the current representation of aerosol particles in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM with ground-based remote retrievals across Africa, and additionally provide an analysis of observed aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550 nm and Ångström exponent data from 34 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET sites. Analysis of the 34 long-term AERONET sites confirms the importance of dust and biomass burning emissions to the seasonal cycle and magnitude of AOD550 nm across the continent and the transport of these emissions to regions outside of the continent. In general, CCAM captures the seasonality of the AERONET data across the continent. The magnitude of modeled and observed multiyear monthly average AOD550 nm overlap within ±1 standard deviation of each other for at least 7 months at all sites except the Réunion St Denis Island site (Réunion St. Denis. The timing of modeled peak AOD550 nm in southern Africa occurs 1 month prior to the observed peak, which does not align with the timing of maximum fire counts in the region. For the western and northern African sites, it is evident that CCAM currently overestimates dust in some regions while others (e.g., the Arabian Peninsula are better characterized. This may be due to overestimated dust lifetime, or that the characterization of the soil for these areas needs to be updated with local information. The CCAM simulated AOD550 nm for the global domain is within the spread of previously published results from CMIP5 and AeroCom experiments for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols. The model's performance provides confidence for using the model to estimate

  5. Modeling fires in adjacent ship compartments with computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Cole, J.K.; Koski, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the thermal effects on radioactive (RAM) transportation pack ages with a fire in an adjacent compartment. An assumption for this analysis is that the adjacent hold fire is some sort of engine room fire. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis tools were used to perform the analysis in order to include convective heat transfer effects. The analysis results were compared to experimental data gathered in a series of tests on the United States Coast Guard ship Mayo Lykes located at Mobile, Alabama. (authors)

  6. Evaluating impacts of fire management strategies on native and invasive plants using an individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangur, Alexander N.; Fill, Jennifer M.; Northfield, Tobin D.; van de Wiel, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The capacity for species to coexist and potentially exclude one another can broadly be attributed to drivers that influence fitness differences (such as competitive ability) and niche differences (such as environmental change). These drivers, and thus the determinants of coexistence they influence, can interact and fluctuate both spatially and temporally. Understanding the spatiotemporal variation in niche and fitness differences in systems prone to fluctuating drivers, such as fire, can help to inform the management of invasive species. In the Cape floristic region of South Africa, invasive Pinus pinaster seedlings are strong competitors in the post-burn environment of the fire-driven Fynbos vegetation. In this, system native Protea spp. are especially vulnerable to unseasonal burns, but seasonal prescribed (Summer) burns are thought to present a high safety risk. Together, these issues have limited the appeal of prescribed burn management as an alternative to costly manual eradication of P. pinaster. Using a spatially-explicit field-of-neighbourhood individual-based model, we represent the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in niche differences (driven by fire regimes) and fitness differences (driven by competitive ability). In doing so, we evaluate optimal fire management strategies to a) control invasive P. pinaster in the Cape floristic region of South Africa, while b) minimizing deleterious effects of management on native Protea spp. The scarcity of appropriate data for model calibration has been problematic for models in invasion biology, but we use recent advances in Approximate Bayesian Computing techniques to overcome this limitation. We present early conclusions on the viability of prescribed burn management to control P. pinaster in South Africa.

  7. Parameterization of a bucket model for soil-vegetation-atmosphere modeling under seasonal climatic regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romano

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are

  8. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    While the societal and economical impacts of floods are well documented and assessable, the impacts of lows flows are less studied and sometimes overlooked. For example, over the western part of Europe, due to intense inland waterway transportation, the economical loses due to low flows are often similar compared to the ones due to floods. In general, the low flow aspect has the tendency to be underestimated by the scientific community. One of the best examples in this respect is the facts that at European level most of the countries have an (early) flood alert system, but in many cases no real information regarding the development, evolution and impacts of droughts. Low flows, occurring during dry periods, may result in several types of problems to society and economy: e.g. lack of water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power production, deterioration of water quality, inland waterway transport, agriculture, tourism, issuing and renewing waste disposal permits, and for assessing the impact of prolonged drought on aquatic ecosystems. As such, the ever-increasing demand on water resources calls for better a management, understanding and prediction of the water deficit situation and for more reliable and extended studies regarding the evolution of the low flow situations. In order to find an optimized monthly to seasonal forecast procedure for the German waterways, the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) is exploring multiple approaches at the moment. On the one hand, based on the operational short- to medium-range forecasting chain, existing hydrological models are forced with two different hydro-meteorological inputs: (i) resampled historical meteorology generated by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach and (ii) ensemble (re-) forecasts of ECMWF's global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which have to be downscaled and bias corrected before feeding the hydrological models. As a second approach BfG evaluates in cooperation with

  9. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  10. Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

    2017-12-01

    The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

  11. Microclimate and Modeled Fire Behavior Differ Between Adjacent Forest Types in Northern Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Pinto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Fire severity varies with forest composition and structure, reflecting micrometeorology and the fuel complex, but their respective influences are difficult to untangle from observation alone. We quantify the differences in fire weather between different forest types and the resulting differences in modeled fire behavior. Collection of in-stand weather data proceeded during two summer periods in three adjacent stands in northern Portugal, respectively Pinus pinaster (PP, Betula alba (BA, and Chamaecyparis lawsoniana (CL. Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed varied respectively as CL < PP < BA, PP < CL < BA, and CL < BA < PP. Differences between PP and the other types were greatest during the warmest and driest hours of the day in a sequence of 10 days with high fire danger. Estimates of daytime moisture content of fine dead fuels and fire behavior characteristics for this period, respectively, from Behave and BehavePlus, indicate a CL < BA < PP gradient in fire potential. High stand density in CL and BA ensured lower wind speed and higher fuel moisture content than in PP, limiting the likelihood of an extreme fire environment. However, regression tree analysis revealed that the fire behavior distinction between the three forest types was primarily a function of the surface fuel complex, and more so during extreme fire weather conditions.

  12. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  13. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  14. Satellite, climatological, and theoretical inputs for modeling of the diurnal cycle of fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Schmidt, C. C.; Giglio, L.; Prins, E.

    2009-12-01

    The diurnal cycle of fire activity is crucial for accurate simulation of atmospheric effects of fire emissions, especially at finer spatial and temporal scales. Estimating diurnal variability in emissions is also a critical problem for construction of emissions estimates from multiple sensors with variable coverage patterns. An optimal diurnal emissions estimate will use as much information as possible from satellite fire observations, compensate known biases in those observations, and use detailed theoretical models of the diurnal cycle to fill in missing information. As part of ongoing improvements to the Fire Location and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) fire monitoring system, we evaluated several different methods of integrating observations with different temporal sampling. We used geostationary fire detections from WF_ABBA, fire detection data from MODIS, empirical diurnal cycles from TRMM, and simple theoretical diurnal curves based on surface heating. Our experiments integrated these data in different combinations to estimate the diurnal cycles of emissions for each location and time. Hourly emissions estimates derived using these methods were tested using an aerosol transport model. We present results of this comparison, and discuss the implications of our results for the broader problem of multi-sensor data fusion in fire emissions modeling.

  15. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schepen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  16. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  17. An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Lu; Huang, Xianjia; Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

  18. An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Lu [Sate Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027 (China); Huang, Xianjia, E-mail: huangxianjia@gziit.ac.cn [Joint Laboratory of Fire Safety in Nuclear Power Plants, Institute of Industry Technology Guangzhou & Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 511458 (China); Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang [China Nuclear Power Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518045 (China)

    2016-05-15

    Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

  19. A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.

  20. The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...

  1. Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dederichs, Anne

    Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from......, the model separately treats the process of pyrolysis and combustion. For under ventilated conditions and at high temperatures during pyrolysis it is found that the process of pyrolysation strongly influences the formation of CO in fire. CO2 follows the same trend....

  2. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  3. Do Mound Disturbance and Bait Placement Affect Bait Removal and Treatment Efficacy in Red Imported Fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae at Different Seasons?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing P. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study provides empirical evidence that disturbing mound immediately before application, as opposed to label recommendation, did not reduce foraging activity of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren, except for about 10-min delay in foraging. Despite the delayed foraging, there was no significant difference in the amount of baits foraged between disturbed and undisturbed colonies. Eventually, >96% of the baits were foraged, with the maximum removal occurred by 2 and 3 h, respectively, in summer and spring trial. The fastest and great amount of bait removal 1 h post-treatment occurred to baits placed on mound, followed by 0.18–0.3-m from mound base, and the slowest 1.08–1.2-m from mound base. All treatment gave 100% control 1 mo later, regardless of the season, without colony relocation or new colony invasion in the test plots.

  4. PyrE, an interactive fire module within the NASA-GISS Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezuman, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2017-12-01

    Fires directly affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. Having an interactive fire module in an Earth System Model allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of biomass burning in different time periods. To do so we have developed PyrE, the NASA-GISS interactive fire emissions model. PyrE uses the flammability, ignition, and suppression parameterization proposed by Pechony and Shindell (2009), and is coupled to a burned area and surface recovery parameterization. The burned area calculation follows CLM's approach (Li et al., 2012), paired with an offline recovery scheme based on Ent's Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) carbon pool turnover time. PyrE is driven by environmental variables calculated by climate simulations, population density data, MODIS fire counts and LAI retrievals, as well as GFED4s emissions. Since the model development required extensive use of reference datasets, in addition to comparing it to GFED4s BA, we evaluate it by studying the effect of fires on atmospheric composition and climate. Our results show good agreement globally, with some regional differences. Finally, we quantify the present day fire radiative forcing. The development of PyrE allowed us for the first time to interactively simulate climate and fire activity with GISS-ModelE3

  5. Cold Climate Structural Fire Danger Rating System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Monika Metallinou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, fires kill 300,000 people every year. The fire season is usually recognized to be in the warmer periods of the year. Recent research has, however, demonstrated that the colder season also has major challenges regarding severe fires, especially in inhabited (heated wood-based structures in cold-climate areas. Knowledge about the effect of dry cellulose-based materials on fire development, indoor and outdoor, is a motivation for monitoring possible changes in potential fire behavior and associated fire risk. The effect of wind in spreading fires to neighboring structures points towards using weather forecasts as information on potential fire spread behavior. As modern weather forecasts include temperature and relative humidity predictions, there may already be sufficient information available to develop a structural fire danger rating system. Such a system may include the following steps: (1 Record weather forecasts and actual temperature and relative humidity inside and outside selected structures; (2 Develop a meteorology-data-based model to predict indoor relative humidity levels; (3 Perform controlled drying chamber experiments involving typical hygroscopic fire fuel; (4 Compare the results to the recorded values in selected structures; and (5 Develop the risk model involving the results from drying chamber experiments, weather forecasts, and separation between structures. Knowledge about the structures at risk and their use is also important. The benefits of an automated fire danger rating system would be that the society can better plan for potentially severe cold-climate fires and thereby limit the negative impacts of such fires.

  6. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  7. Fire spread in chaparral – a comparison of laboratory data and model predictions in burning live fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi

    2016-01-01

    Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...

  8. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in methyl mercury concentrations in zooplankton from boreal lakes impacted by deforestation or natural forest fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Edenise; Carignan, Richard; Lean, David R S

    2007-08-01

    We compared the effects of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances on methyl mercury (MeHg) concentration in bulk zooplankton from boreal Shield lakes. MeHg in zooplankton was monitored for three years in nine lakes impacted by deforestation, in nine lakes impacted by wildfire, and in twenty lakes with undisturbed catchments. Lakes were sampled during spring, mid- and late summer. MeHg in zooplankton showed a seasonal trend: concentrations were the lowest in spring, then peaked in mid-summer and decreased in late summer. Over the three study years, MeHg concentrations observed in mid-summer in zooplankton from forest harvested lakes were significantly higher than in reference and fire-impacted lakes, whereas differences between these two groups of lakes were not significant. The pattern of distribution of MeHg in zooplankton during the different seasons paralleled that of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is known as a vector of Hg from watershed soils to lake water. Besides DOC, MeHg in zooplankton also showed a positive significant correlation with epilimnetic temperature and sulfate concentrations. An inter-annual decreasing trend in MeHg was observed in zooplankton from reference and fire-impacted lakes. In forest harvested lakes, however, MeHg concentrations remained higher and nearly constant over three years following the impact. Overall these results indicate that the MeHg pulse observed in zooplankton following deforestation by harvesting is relatively long-lived, and may have repercussions to the accumulation of MeHg along the food chain. Therefore, potential effects of deforestation on the Hg contamination of fish should be taken into account in forest management practices.

  9. Development of CFD fire models for deterministic analyses of the cable issues in the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-H.; Ferng, Y.-M.; Pei, B.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Additional fire barriers of electrical cables are required for the nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan due to the separation requirements of Appendix R to 10 CFR Part 50. The risk-informed fire analysis (RIFA) may provide a viable method to resolve these fire barrier issues. However, it is necessary to perform the fire scenario analyses so that RIFA can quantitatively determine the risk related to the fire barrier wrap. The CFD fire models are then proposed in this paper to help the RIFA in resolving these issues. Three typical fire scenarios are selected to assess the present CFD models. Compared with the experimental data and other model's simulations, the present calculated results show reasonable agreements, rendering that present CFD fire models can provide the quantitative information for RIFA analyses to release the cable wrap requirements for NPPs

  10. The roles of weather modification technology in mitigation of the peat fires during a period of dry season in Bengkalis, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhyavitri, A.; Perdana, M. A.; Sutikno, S.; Widodo, F. H.

    2018-02-01

    The annual peat fire disasters have suffered human life, deteriorated peat land ecosystems, and caused severe economic losses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Singapore during a period of 2014-2016. The objective of this study is to investigate to what extent the weather modification technology (WMT) may play its roles in increasing the precipitation rates in order to mitigate the peat fires disaster in Bengkalis, Riau Province, Indonesia. The study obtained the precipitation rates data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) satellite during the period of 2014, 2015 and 2016. The data then statistically analyzed using the Grads software package. While the process of WMT at the designated research location was evaluated together between the Artificial Rain Unit of BPPT (Agency for the Assessment and Application Technology), and the Engineering Faculty, University of Riau, 2016. The research showed that the WMT increased the rainfall rates during the dry season within the study area by 8% (520.7 mm to 557 mm) in the 3 months period (July 14 -October 6, 2016), and reducing significantly hotspots by 88.6% from 6.725 in 2014 to 770 in 2016. Hence, it confirmed that the application of technical WMT procedures may increase precipitation rates and reduce the number of hot spots in Bengkalis.

  11. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF6 cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of UF 6 is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800 degree C (1475 degree F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF 6 when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF 6 released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced

  12. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

  13. Modelling of electrical cabinet fires based on the CARMELA experimental program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melis, S.; Rigollet, L.; Such, J.M.; Casselman, C.

    2004-01-01

    As fire of electrical cabinets causes some hazard to nuclear safety, IRSN has conducted the CARMELA program to investigate this topic. The program was carried out in three stages. The two first stages consisted in analytical experiments where the combustible was simulated by thin plastic pieces and where the different parameters that influence the fire could be easily varied. The third stage involved real relay cabinets. This article first describes the experimental facility and the test matrix. The phenomenology of electrical cabinet fires is then exposed and the most influencing parameters are identified from the analytical experiments: the ventilation comes at first rank but the materials involved are also shown to influence the propagation of the fire. The model developed to represent the fire, and particularly the rate of heat released, is then presented and the comparison of its results with the measurements performed in the experiments shows that its validity is acceptable. (orig.)

  14. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-01-01

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0

  15. A deterministric and probabilistric model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, B.

    1988-03-01

    A deterministic and probabilistic model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plant compartments has been developed. It's objective is to predict whether certain components in the compartment will cease to function as a result of the fire and to give the probability of failure. Results are presented for several scenarios in two compartments. The model has been implimented in the computer code OSFIC, a tool for safety engineers to compare various component configurations in different compartments. (author)

  16. Post Fire Vegetation Recovery in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Celia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2011-01-01

    Fires in Portugal, as in the Mediterranean ecosystems, have a complex effect on vegetation regeneration due to the different responses of vegetation to the variety of fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures. A thorough evaluation of vegetation recovery after fire events becomes therefore crucial in land management. In 2005, Portugal suffered a strong damage from forest fires that damaged an area of 300 000 ha of forest and shrub. This year are particularly interesting because it is associated the severe drought of 2005. The aim of the present study is to identify large burnt scars in Portugal during the 2005 fire seasons and monitoring vegetation behaviour throughout the pre and the post fire periods. The mono-parametric model developed by Gouveia et al. (2010), based on monthly values of NDVI, at the 1km×1km spatial scale, as obtained from the VEGETATION-SPOT5 instrument, from 1999 to 2009, was used.

  17. Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: sensitivity to spatiotemporal allocation of fire emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T

    2014-09-15

    Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Phasic firing in vasopressin cells: understanding its functional significance through computational models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan J MacGregor

    Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response

  19. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  20. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  1. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Horowitz, HM

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available , regional circulation transports dust from deserts in Iraq and southern Iran during summer and a mixture of fine pollution aerosols from the Persian Gulf throughout the year (Eck et al., 2008; Basart et al., 2009). The Izaña site has a different seasonal...

  2. Mesh influence on the fire computer modeling in nuclear power plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Lázaro

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire computer models allow to study real fire scenarios consequences. Its use in nuclear power plants has increased with the new regulations to apply risk informed performance-based methods for the analysis and design of fire safety solutions. The selection of the cell side factor is very important in these kinds of models. The mesh must establish a compromise between the geometry adjustment, the resolution of the equations and the computation times. This paper aims to study the impact of several cell sizes, using the fire computer model FDS, to evaluate the relative affectation in the final simulation results. In order to validate that, we have employed several scenarios of interest for nuclear power plants. Conclusions offer relevant data for users and show some cell sizes that can be selected to guarantee the quality of the simulations and reduce the results uncertainty.

  3. A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.

  4. Evaluation of fire models for nuclear power plant applications. Benchmark exercise no. 4: Fuel pool fire inside a compartment - International panel report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein-Hessling, W.; Roewekamp, M.; Riese, O.

    2006-11-01

    Fire simulations as well as their analytical validation procedures have gained more and more significance, particularly in the context of the fire safety analysis for operating nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, fire simulation models have been adapted as analytical tools for a risk oriented fire safety assessment. Calculated predictions can be used, on the one hand, for the improvements and upgrades of fire protection in nuclear power plants by the licensees and, on the other hand, as a tool for reproducible and clearly understandable estimations in assessing the available and/or foreseen fire protection measures by the authorities and their experts. For consideration of such aspects in the context of implementing new nuclear fire protection standards or of updating existing ones, an 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' also known as the 'International Collaborative Fire Model Project' (ICFMP) was started in 1999. It has made use of the experience and knowledge of a variety of worldwide expert institutions in this field to assess and improve, if necessary, the state-of-the-art with respect to modeling fires in nuclear power plants and other nuclear installations. This document contains the results of the ICFMP Benchmark Exercise No. 4, where two fuel pool fire experiments in an enclosure with two different natural vent sizes have been considered. Analyzing the results of different fire simulation codes and code types provides some indications with respect to the uncertainty of the results. This information is especially important in setting uncertainty parameters in probabilistic risk studies and to provide general insights concerning the applicability and limitations in the application of different types of fire simulation codes for this type of fire scenario and boundary conditions. During the benchmark procedure the participants performed different types of calculations. These included totally blind

  5. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  6. Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

  7. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  8. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  9. Exergetic Modelling of Oil-Fired Steam Boilers | Ohijeagbon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The performance variables and potential for energy savings in oil-fired industrial steam boilers were studied. Operational parameters of steam boilers using low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and diesel were used to determine thermodynamic properties of material streams and exergetic parameters. Analysis of thermodynamic ...

  10. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  11. Field validation of a free-agent cellular automata model of fire spread with fire–atmosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary Achtemeier

    2012-01-01

    A cellular automata fire model represents ‘elements’ of fire by autonomous agents. A few simple algebraic expressions substituted for complex physical and meteorological processes and solved iteratively yield simulations for ‘super-diffusive’ fire spread and coupled surface-layer (2-m) fire–atmosphere processes. Pressure anomalies, which are integrals of the thermal...

  12. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  13. Characterization of the Fire Regime and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Upper Guinean forest (UGF), encompassing the tropical regions of West Africa, is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a critically important socio-economic and ecological resource for the region. However, the UGF is one of the most human-disturbed tropical forest ecosystems with the only remaining large patches of original forests distributed in protected areas, which are embedded in a hotspot of climate stress & land use pressures, increasing their vulnerability to fire. We hypothesized that human impacts and climate interact to drive spatial and temporal variability in fire, with fire exhibiting distinctive seasonality and sensitivity to drought in areas characterized by different population densities, agricultural practices, vegetation types, and levels of forest degradation. We used the MODIS active fire product to identify and characterize fire activity in the major ecoregions of the UGF. We used TRMM rainfall data to measure climatic variability and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We employed time series modeling to identify the influences of drought indices and other antecedent climatic indicators on temporal patterns of active fire occurrence. We used a variety of modeling approaches to assess the influences of human activities and land cover variables on the spatial pattern of fire activity. Our results showed that temporal patterns of fire activity in the UGF were related to precipitation, but these relationships were spatially heterogeneous. The pattern of fire seasonality varied geographically, reflecting both climatological patterns and agricultural practices. The spatial pattern of fire activity was strongly associated with vegetation gradients and anthropogenic activities occurring at fine spatial scales. The Guinean forest-savanna mosaic ecoregion had the most fires. This study contributes to our understanding of UGF fire regime and the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in

  14. Monitoring, modelling and forecasting of the pollen season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheifinger, Helfried; Belmonte, Jordina; Buters, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    The section about monitoring covers the development of phenological networks, remote sensing of the season cycle of the vegetation, the emergence of the science of aerobiology and, more specifically, aeropalynology, pollen sampling instruments, pollen counting techniques, applications of aeropaly......The section about monitoring covers the development of phenological networks, remote sensing of the season cycle of the vegetation, the emergence of the science of aerobiology and, more specifically, aeropalynology, pollen sampling instruments, pollen counting techniques, applications...... of aeropalynology in agriculture and the European Pollen Information System. Three data sources are directly related with aeropalynology: phenological observations, pollen counts and remote sensing of the vegetation activity. The main future challenge is the assimilation of these data streams into numerical pollen...

  15. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suliman, M D H; Mahmud, M; Reba, M N M; S, L W

    2014-01-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  16. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.

    2014-02-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  17. MODELING ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS OF POST-FIRE REVEGETATION IN THE GREAT BASIN

    OpenAIRE

    Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey E.; Nalle, Darek

    2004-01-01

    This study employs a Markov chain model of vegetation dynamics to examine the economic and ecological benefits of post-fire revegetation in the Great Basin sagebrush steppe. The analysis is important because synergies between wildland fire and invasive weeds in this ecosystem are likely to result in the loss of native biodiversity, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, reduced watershed stability and water quality, and increased costs and risk associated with firefi...

  18. The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

    2018-03-01

    The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

  19. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  20. Performing of recent real scale cable fire experiments and presentation of the results in the frame of the international collaborative fire modeling project ICFMP. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, Dietmar; Riese, Olaf; Klingenberg, Mark

    2005-01-01

    As a part of the Fire Risk Research Program, the German iBMB (Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz) of Braunschweig University of Technology and GRS (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagenund Reaktorsicherheit mbH) are participating in an International Collaborative Fire Modeling Project (ICFMP) to assess and validate fire computer codes for nuclear power plant applications. This assessment is being conducted through benchmarking and validation exercises. The tests are simulating cable fires scenarios in a single compartment. The goal of the actual cable fire series is to investigate the effects of a natural fire to vertically routed cables (worst case) with different cable insulation material (PVC and FRNC). Another important aspect of cable fire is the risk of function failure. Therefore in the test series the short circuit and the conduction loss of cables are measured. This report includes a first description of the experimental results for test 1 - test 4 of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project conducted in December 2003 at the iBMB in Germany. The experimental data are reported on the International Collaborative Fire Model Project - Platform. The measured data shall be the basis for fire simulations. The tests show that the FRNC cables have significantly better characteristics in case of fire. No substantial flame spread takes place even in case of preheating. PVC cables could be ignited with a burner output of 50 kW, in contrary, the FRNC cables could be ignited at burner output of 150 kW. The preheating has a complex effect on the fire behavior of the cables. It may occur that gases are pyrolysed which are not ignited during the phase of preheating. These gases are transported from the cable surrounding and may leave the fire room. Short circuits occur first in case ''conductor to conductor'' and later in case ''conductor to tray''. The time periods until short circuits occur are strongly dependent on the preheating of the cables. In case of

  1. Application of CFD Modeling to Room Fire Growth on Walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-01

    to each particle. For fires of other geometries, expressions must be available for representing the characteristic velocity and flame length , in the...burning time, z , is the flame length , ri,, is the selected particle rate. The velocity of the particles generally depends on their launch site. But if...over the characteristic flame length , We used R* = 0.05 or 20 cells over the characteristic flame length . In FDS 2.0 the stoichiometric mixture

  2. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were compa...... mixing in the furnace is a key issue leading to these problems. q 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  3. Convective effects in a regulatory and proposed fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Hohnstreiter, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    Radiation is the dominant mode of heat transfer in large fires. However, convection can be as much as 10 to 20 percent of the total heat transfer to an object in a large fire. The current radioactive material transportation packaging regulations include convection as a mode of heat transfer in the accident condition scenario. The current International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Series 6 packaging regulation states ''the convection coefficient shall be that value which the designer can justify if the package were exposed to the specified fire''. The current Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 71 (10CFR71) packaging regulation states ''when significant, convection heat input must be included on the basis of still, ambient air at 800 degrees C (1475 degrees F)''. Two questions that can arise in an analysts mind from an examination of the packaging regulations is whether convection is significant and whether convection should be included in the design analysis of a radioactive materials transportation container. The objective of this study is to examine the convective effects on an actual radioactive materials transportation package using a regulatory and a proposed thermal boundary condition

  4. Crown Fire Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...

  5. A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig

    2013-11-01

    A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.

  6. Recent advances in operational seasonal forecasting in South Africa: Models, infrastructure and networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The various institutions involved with seasonal forecast development and production are discussed. New modelling approaches and the establishment of infrastructures to improve forecast dissemination are discussed....

  7. Electrical modeling of semiconductor bridge (SCB) BNCP detonators with electrochemical capacitor firing sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marx, K.D. [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1998-11-01

    In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.

  8. Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Hollis; S. Matthews; Roger Ottmar; S.J. Prichard; S. Slijepcevic; N.D. Burrows; B. Ward; K.G. Tolhurst; W.R. Anderson; J S. Gould

    2010-01-01

    Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National...

  9. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Lixia; Lu Qishao

    2006-01-01

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing

  10. A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, N. D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Valkvist, M.B.

    2018-01-01

    As few or none prescriptive guidelines for fire risk assessment of residential high-rise buildings exist, it has been unclear which fire safety design features constitute an acceptable (adequate) safety level. In order to fill this gap a simplified risk-based decision-support tool, the Fire Risk...... Model (FRM), was developed. The FRM evaluates both the risk level to the occupants and the property risk level as a function of the building characteristics, height and fire safety features for single stairwell residential high-rise buildings. The acceptability of a high-rise design is then defined......, and the associated performance of the FRM evaluated. It was found that compartmentation and the door configurations in the egress path play an important role, along with sprinklers, in order for the design to successfully keep the stairwell free from smoke. Specifically, modern curtain wall facades were found...

  11. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan Lixia [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China); Lu Qishao [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China)]. E-mail: qishaolu@hotmail.com

    2006-12-15

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing.

  12. Application of fire models for risk analysis in french nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauns, P.

    1989-04-01

    Numerical simulations of compartment fires have been carried out in the French 900 MW and 1 300 MW nuclear power plants, to obtain quantitative data about this particular kind of risk: characteristic spreading times from one redundant electrical train to the other one, behaviour of important electrical components... The main stages of both studies were the following: selection of rooms, the location or function of which are essential for the plant safety in case of fire, on-site inspections to collect information about these rooms (amount of fuel, openings...), definition of fire scenarios, improvement of the fire model VESTA-PLUS, and, finally calculations using this computer code. The simulations have shown two major trends: i) the spreading times, without taking into account any external intervention, are always greater than half an hour, and ii) the specific design of the 1 300 MW power plants generally prevents one of the redundant train from being damaged due to a fire occurring in a room containing the other one. Examples of typical results obtained are given, showing the capability of application of the improved fire model to complex problems

  13. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  14. Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

  15. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  16. Project-oriented management of industrial production of fire and rescue equipment by means of geometric modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Rak, Iu; Bondarenko, V.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The objective of the research is to develop a method based on the geometric modelling for the purpose of improving the effectiveness of fire protection project management in industrial production of fire protection technology systems. Methods: The theoretical inheritance mode of effective management in project-organizational structure of fire protection and specialized technical equipment production using geometric modelling. Results: Mathematical and geometric models of project ma...

  17. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  18. Application of Different HSI Color Models to Detect Fire-Damaged Mortar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To obtain a better understanding of the effect of vehicle fires on rigid pavement, a nondestructive test method utilizing an ordinary digital camera to capture images of mortar at five elevated temperatures was undertaken. These images were then analyzed by “image color-intensity analyzer” software. In image analysis, the RGB color model was the basic system used to represent the color information of images. HSI is a derived-color model that is transformed from an RGB model by formulae. In order to understand more about surface color changes and temperatures after a vehicle fire, various transformation formulae used in different research areas were applied in this study. They were then evaluated to obtain the optimum HSI model for further studies of fire-damaged mortar through the use of image analysis.

  19. Estimation of Forest Fire-fighting Budgets Using Climate Indexes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhen Xu; G. Cornelis van Kooten

    2012-01-01

    Given the complexity and relative short length of current predicting system for fire behavior, it is inappropriate to be referred for planning fire-fighting budgets of BC government due to the severe uncertainty of fire behavior across fire seasons. Therefore, a simple weather derived index for predicting fire frequency and burned area is developed in this paper to investigate the potential feasibility to predict fire behavior and fire-fighting expenses for the upcoming fire season using clim...

  20. Numerical prediction of heat-flux to massive calorimeters engulfed in regulatory fires with the cask analysis fire environment (CAFE) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, Jorman A.; Suo-Antitla, Ahti; Kramer M, Alex; Greiner, Miles

    2000-01-01

    Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple σT fire 4 models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed

  1. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  2. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  3. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were...... compared with available gas temperature and species concentration measurements showing good agreement. Combustionof biomass in grate-based boilers is often associated with high emission levels and relatively high amounts of unburnt carbon in the fly ash.Based on the CFD analysis, it is suggested that poor...

  4. Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030. Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Joode, J.; Oezdemir, Oe.

    2010-01-01

    The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility - gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities - compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities. (author)

  5. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  6. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for comparison of single-neuron firing intensities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottas, Athanasios; Behseta, Sam

    2010-03-01

    We propose a fully inferential model-based approach to the problem of comparing the firing patterns of a neuron recorded under two distinct experimental conditions. The methodology is based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process models for the firing times of each condition with flexible nonparametric mixture prior models for the corresponding intensity functions. We demonstrate posterior inferences from a global analysis, which may be used to compare the two conditions over the entire experimental time window, as well as from a pointwise analysis at selected time points to detect local deviations of firing patterns from one condition to another. We apply our method on two neurons recorded from the primary motor cortex area of a monkey's brain while performing a sequence of reaching tasks.

  7. Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

  8. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system--FUEL subsystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Burgan; Richard C. Rothermel

    1984-01-01

    This manual documents the fuel modeling procedures of BEHAVE--a state-of-the-art wildland fire behavior prediction system. Described are procedures for collecting fuel data, using the data with the program, and testing and adjusting the fuel model.

  9. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the

  10. Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

  11. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  12. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  13. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2014-01-01

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures

  14. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures.

  15. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar

  16. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-11-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  17. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  18. Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. N. Perera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

  19. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  20. Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2014-01-07

    Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD

  1. Advanced char burnout models for the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Severin; S. Wirtz; V. Scherer [Ruhr-University, Bochum (Germany). Institute of Energy Plant Technology (LEAT)

    2005-07-01

    The numerical simulation of coal combustion processes is widely used as an efficient means to predict burner or system behaviour. In this paper an approach to improve CFD simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers with advanced coal combustion models is presented. In simple coal combustion models, first order Arrhenius rate equations are used for devolatilization and char burnout. The accuracy of such simple models is sufficient for the basic aspects of heat release. The prediction of carbon-in-ash is one aspect of special interest in the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers. To determine the carbon-in-ash levels in the fly ash of coal fired furnaces, the char burnout model has to be more detailed. It was tested, in how far changing operating conditions affect the carbon-in-ash prediction of the simulation. To run several test cases in a short time, a simplified cellnet model was applied. To use a cellnet model for simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers, it was coupled with a Lagrangian particle model, used in CFD simulations, too. 18 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle t...

  3. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle typical problems in data available to the companies, like the presence of franchises, which are treated as censored data.

  4. Seasonal Forecasting of Agriculture Gross Domestic Production in Iran: Application of Periodic Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of Iran, has an important role in Gross Domestic Production by providing about 14% of GDP. This study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture GDP using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR, as the new seasonal time series techniques. To address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from March 1988 to July 1989. The collected data was firstly analyzed using periodic unit root test Franses & Paap (2004. The analysis found non-periodic unit root in the seasonal data. Second, periodic seasonal behavior (Boswijk & Franses, 1996 was examined. The results showed that periodic autoregressive model fits agriculture GDP well. This makes an accurate forecast of agriculture GDP possible. Using the estimated model, the future value of quarter agricultural GDP from March 2011 to July 2012was forecasted. With consideration to the fair fit of this model with agricultural GDP, It is recommended to use periodic autoregressive model for the future studies.

  5. Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Mäkelä

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June–August, the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908–2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

  6. Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

    2013-02-01

    Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local

  7. Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

  8. Short term load forecasting technique based on the seasonal exponential adjustment method and the regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jie; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Dong, Yao; Lu, Xiaoxiao

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The seasonal and trend items of the data series are forecasted separately. ► Seasonal item in the data series is verified by the Kendall τ correlation testing. ► Different regression models are applied to the trend item forecasting. ► We examine the superiority of the combined models by the quartile value comparison. ► Paired-sample T test is utilized to confirm the superiority of the combined models. - Abstract: For an energy-limited economy system, it is crucial to forecast load demand accurately. This paper devotes to 1-week-ahead daily load forecasting approach in which load demand series are predicted by employing the information of days before being similar to that of the forecast day. As well as in many nonlinear systems, seasonal item and trend item are coexisting in load demand datasets. In this paper, the existing of the seasonal item in the load demand data series is firstly verified according to the Kendall τ correlation testing method. Then in the belief of the separate forecasting to the seasonal item and the trend item would improve the forecasting accuracy, hybrid models by combining seasonal exponential adjustment method (SEAM) with the regression methods are proposed in this paper, where SEAM and the regression models are employed to seasonal and trend items forecasting respectively. Comparisons of the quartile values as well as the mean absolute percentage error values demonstrate this forecasting technique can significantly improve the accuracy though models applied to the trend item forecasting are eleven different ones. This superior performance of this separate forecasting technique is further confirmed by the paired-sample T tests

  9. Ecological modeling of pollutants in accidental fire at the landfill waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanov Sonja B.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper presents tyre as flammable material and some examples of tyre fires in the world. Uncontrolled tyre fires produce a lot of smoke and air pollutants, including benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Great heat leads to the generation of pyrolytic oil which, when mixed with the fire extinguishing agent, contaminates the surrounding soil, surface water and underground water. Paper analyzes and presents in particular the emission factors of incomplete burning of waste car tyres. Metal dust emissions have been presented, volatile organic compund (VOC emissions, slightly volatile organic compound (SVOC emissions and emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Evaluation of the effect on the air quality has been graphically presented by modelling of uncotrolled tyre burning by using EPA "SCREEN 3 MODEL".

  10. Quantifying Hydroperiod, Fire and Nutrient Effects on the Composition of Plant Communities in Marl Prairie of the Everglades: a Joint Probability Method Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, L.

    2017-12-01

    Plant community can be simultaneously affected by human activities and climate changes, and quantifying and predicting this combined effect on plant community by appropriate model framework which is validated by field data is complex, but very useful to conservation management. Plant communities in the Everglades provide an unique set of conditions to develop and validate this model framework, because they are both experiencing intensive effects of human activities (such as changing hydroperiod by drainage and restoration projects, nutrients from upstream agriculture, prescribed fire, etc.) and climate changes (such as warming, changing precipitation patter, sea level rise, etc.). More importantly, previous research attention focuses on plant communities in slough ecosystem (including ridge, slough and their tree islands), very few studies consider the marl prairie ecosystem. Comparing with slough ecosystem featured by remaining consistently flooded almost year-round, marl prairie has relatively shorter hydroperiod (just in wet-season of one year). Therefore, plant communities of marl prairie may receive more impacts from hydroperiod change. In addition to hydroperiod, fire and nutrients also affect the plant communities in the marl prairie. Therefore, to quantify the combined effects of water level, fire, and nutrients on the composition of the plant communities, we are developing a joint probability method based vegetation dynamic model. Further, the model is being validated by field data about changes of vegetation assemblage along environmental gradients in the marl prairie. Our poster showed preliminary data from our current project.

  11. Improved modelling of sodium-spray fires and sodium-combustion aerosol chemical evolution - 15488

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathe, E.; Kissane, M.; Petitprez, D.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the Generation IV Initiative, the consequences of a severe-accident in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) must be studied. Being pyrophoric, sodium will burn upon contact with air in a containment creating toxic aerosols and we must take into account these fire aerosols when assessing the source term. We have developed a numerical simulation named NATRAC to calculate the mass of aerosols produced during a spray fire in a SFR severe accident. The results show that the mass of oxide aerosols can involve more than 60% of the ejected sodium. In a second part we have developed a numerical simulation named STARK based on the Cooper model that models the physico-chemical transformations of the aerosols. However, this model has never been validated and the literature does not permit to do so. In these conditions, we have designed and performed our own experiment ESSTIA to obtain the missing values of the parameters that govern Cooper model. The modified Cooper model we propose with the new parameters reproduces correctly the ESSTIA experimental data. The only parameter that has not yet been measured is the tortuosity of the sodium-fire aerosols surface layers. A dedicated experiment using real sodium-fire aerosols could eliminate any doubts about the uncertainty of the proposed Cooper model

  12. Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dréan Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

  13. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  14. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  15. Photochemical model estimated fire impacts on ozone and aerosol evaluated with field studies and routine data sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Highly instrumented field studies provide a unique opportunity to evaluate multiple aspects of photochemical grid model representation of fire emissions, dispersion, and chemical evolution. Fuel information and burn area for a specific fire coupled with near-fire and downwind chemical measurements provides information needed to constrain model predicted fire plume transport and chemical evolution of important pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) that have deleterious health effects. Most local to regional scale field campaigns to date have made relatively few transects through plumes from fires with well characterized fuel type and consumption. While more comprehensive field studies are being planned for 2018 and beyond (WE-CAN, FIREX, FIRE-CHEM, and FASMEE), existing measurement data from multiple field campaigns including 2013 SEAC4RS, satellite data, and routine surface networks are used to assess how a regulatory modeling system captures fire impacts on local to regional scale ozone and PM2.5. Key aspects of the regulatory modeling system include fire location and burn area from SMARTFIRE2, emissions from BlueSky framework, and predictions of ambient O3 and PM2.5 from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical transport model. A comparison of model estimated O3 from specific fires with routine surface measurements at rural locations in proximity to the 2013 Rim fire, 2011 Wallow fire, and 2011 Flint Hills fires suggest the modeling system over-estimates smoke impacts on hourly ozone. Sensitivity simulations where solar radiation and photolysis rates are more aggressively attenuated by smoke reduced O3 predictions but did not ameliorate the over prediction bias. PM2.5 organic carbon tends to be overpredicted at rural surface sites downwind from the 2011 Flint Hills prescribed fires while results were mixed at rural sites downwind of the 2013 Rim fire and 2011 Wallow fire suggesting differences in fuel characterization (e

  16. Spectroscopic analysis of seasonal changes in live fuel moisture content and leaf dry mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi Qi; Philip E. Dennison; W. Matt Jolly; Rachael C. Kropp; Simon C. Brewer

    2014-01-01

    Live fuel moisture content (LFMC), the ratio of water mass to dry mass contained in live plant material, is an important fuel property for determining fire danger and for modeling fire behavior. Remote sensing estimation of LFMC often relies on an assumption of changing water and stable dry mass over time. Fundamental understanding of seasonal variation in plant water...

  17. Development of seasonal flow outlook model for Ganges-Brahmaputra Basins in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Sazzad; Haque Khan, Raihanul; Gautum, Dilip Kumar; Karmaker, Ripon; Hossain, Amirul

    2016-10-01

    Bangladesh is crisscrossed by the branches and tributaries of three main river systems, the Ganges, Bramaputra and Meghna (GBM). The temporal variation of water availability of those rivers has an impact on the different water usages such as irrigation, urban water supply, hydropower generation, navigation etc. Thus, seasonal flow outlook can play important role in various aspects of water management. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in Bangladesh provides short term and medium term flood forecast, and there is a wide demand from end-users about seasonal flow outlook for agricultural purposes. The objective of this study is to develop a seasonal flow outlook model in Bangladesh based on rainfall forecast. It uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal precipitation, temperature forecast to simulate HYDROMAD hydrological model. Present study is limited for Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins. ARIMA correction is applied to correct the model error. The performance of the model is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The model result shows good performance with R2 value of 0.78 and NSE of 0.61 for the Brahmaputra River Basin, and R2 value of 0.72 and NSE of 0.59 for the Ganges River Basin for the period of May to July 2015. The result of the study indicates strong potential to make seasonal outlook to be operationalized.

  18. Identifying and quantifying energy savings on fired plant using low cost modelling techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucker, Robert; Ward, John

    2012-01-01

    Research highlights: → Furnace models based on the zone method for radiation calculation are described. → Validated steady-state and transient models have been developed. → We show how these simple models can identify the best options for saving energy. → High emissivity coatings predicted to give performance enhancement on a fired heater. → Optimal heat recovery strategies on a steel reheating furnace are predicted. -- Abstract: Combustion in fired heaters, boilers and furnaces often accounts for the major energy consumption on industrial processes. Small improvements in efficiency can result in large reductions in energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and operating costs. This paper will describe some useful low cost modelling techniques based on the zone method to help identify energy saving opportunities on high temperature fuel-fired process plant. The zone method has for many decades, been successfully applied to small batch furnaces through to large steel-reheating furnaces, glass tanks, boilers and fired heaters on petrochemical plant. Zone models can simulate both steady-state furnace operation and more complex transient operation typical of a production environment. These models can be used to predict thermal efficiency and performance, and more importantly, to assist in identifying and predicting energy saving opportunities from such measures as: ·Improving air/fuel ratio and temperature controls. ·Improved insulation. ·Use of oxygen or oxygen enrichment. ·Air preheating via flue gas heat recovery. ·Modification to furnace geometry and hearth loading. There is also increasing interest in the application of refractory coatings for increasing surface radiation in fired plant. All of the techniques can yield savings ranging from a few percent upwards and can deliver rapid financial payback, but their evaluation often requires robust and reliable models in order to increase confidence in making financial investment decisions. This paper gives

  19. Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  20. The development of thermal models for a UF6 transport container in a fully engulfing fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomas, J.; Clayton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the recent development work on a lumped-parameter model known as BURST3 created by BNFL to examine the physics of the heating problem. The predictions of this model were compared with the results obtained by Mallett in 1965, in which small (3.5, 5 and 8 inch diameter) cylinders were exposed to a fire. In general, the comparison is good; however there are some differences - particularly on the speed of response of the wall temperature to the heating from the fire. The model was further modified to allow conditions of partial and full insulation to be investigated. The partially insulated condition simulates the Japanese proposal to insulate the ends of the container only, leaving the cylinder bare between the stiffening rings. The results obtained with our modified model support the predictions of Abe et al that the partially-insulated cylinder will survive the fire test. The analysis of a completely insulated container has indicated that a minimal thickness of insulation provides sufficient protection to allow survival in the fire test. A discussion of additional improvements to the lumped-parameter model are presented. (J.P.N.)

  1. Use of a field model to analyze probable fire environments encountered within the complex geometries of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Usher, J.L.; Singhal, A.K.; Tam, L.T.

    1985-08-01

    A fire in a nuclear power plant (NPP) can damage equipment needed to safely operate the plant and thereby either directly cause an accident or else reduce the plant's margin of safety. The development of a field-model fire code to analyze the probable fire environments encountered within NPP is discussed. A set of fire tests carried out under the aegis of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is described. The results of these tests are then utilized to validate the field model

  2. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  3. Forest Fires Darken Snow for Years following Disturbance: Magnitude, Duration, and Composition of Light Absorbing Impurities in Seasonal Snow across a Chronosequence of Burned Forests in the Colorado River Headwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, K. E.; Arienzo, M. M.; Chellman, N.; McConnell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Charred forests shed black carbon and burned debris, which accumulates and concentrates on winter snowpack, reducing snow surface albedo, and subsequently increasing snowmelt rates, and advancing the date of snow disappearance. Forest fires have occurred across vast areas of the seasonal snow zone in recent decades, however we do not understand the long-term implications of burned forests in montane headwaters to snow hydrology and downstream water resources. Across a chronosequence of nine burned forests in the Colorado River Headwaters, we sampled snow throughout the complete snowpack profile to conserve the composition, properties, and vertical stratigraphy of impurities in the snowpack during maximum snow accumulation. Using state-of-the-art geochemical analyses, we determined the magnitude, composition, and particle size distribution of black carbon, dust, and other impurities in the snowpack relative to years-since fire. Forest fires continue to darken snow for many years following fire, however the magnitude, composition, and particle size distribution of impurities change through time, altering the post-fire radiative forcing on snow as a burned forest ages.

  4. Comparative Evaluation of Five Fire Emissions Datasets Using the GEOS-5 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, C. M.; Pan, X.; Chin, M.; Bian, H.; Darmenov, A.; Ellison, L.; Kucsera, T. L.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Petrenko, M. M.; Wang, J.; Ge, C.; Wiedinmyer, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires and other types of biomass burning affect most vegetated parts of the globe, contributing 40% of the annual global atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, as well as significant amounts of numerous trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. Many of these smoke constituents affect the air quality and/or the climate system directly or through their interactions with solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in high levels of uncertainty in understanding their real impacts. With the advent of satellite remote sensing of fires and burned areas in the last couple of decades, a number of fire emissions products have become available for use in relevant research and applications. In this study, we evaluated five global biomass burning emissions datasets, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) GFEDv4s (Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0); (4) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); and (5) Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) version 1.5. Overall, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the magnitudes of the emissions can be noticeably different. The inventories derived using top-down approaches (QFEDv2.4 and FEERv1) are larger than those based on bottom-up approaches. For example, global organic carbon (OC) emissions in 2008 are: QFEDv2.4 (51.93 Tg), FEERv1 (28.48 Tg), FINN v1.5 (19.48 Tg), GFEDv3.1 (15.65 Tg) and GFEDv4s (13.76 Tg); representing a factor of 3.7 difference between the largest and the least. We also used all five biomass-burning emissions datasets to conduct aerosol simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), and compared the resulting aerosol optical depth (AOD) output to the corresponding retrievals from MODIS

  5. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  6. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: Avian responses to prescribed fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  7. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

    2004-01-01

    . Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

  8. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.

    1994-01-01

    First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

  9. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  10. Elementary School Students' Mental Models about Formation of Seasons: A Cross Sectional Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Türk, Cumhur; Kalkan, Hüseyin; Kiroglu, Kasim; Ocak Iskeleli, Nazan

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the mental models of elementary school students on seasons and to analyze how these models change in terms of grade levels. The study was conducted with 294 students (5th, 6th, 7th and 8th graders) studying in an elementary school of Turkey's Black Sea Region. Qualitative and quantitative data collection…

  11. Dayton Aircraft Cabin Fire Model, Version 3, Volume I. Physical Description.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    contact to any surface directly above a burning element, provided that the current flame length makes contact possible. For fires originating on the...no extension of the flames horizontally beneath the surface is considered. The equation for computing the flame length is presented in Section 5. For...high as 0.3. The values chosen for DACFIR3 are 0.15 for Ec and 0.10 for E P. The Steward model is also used to compute flame length , hf, for the fire

  12. Modeling the differentiation of A- and C-type baroreceptor firing patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturdy, Jacob; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Olufsen, Mette

    2017-01-01

    The baroreceptor neurons serve as the primary transducers of blood pressure for the autonomic nervous system and are thus critical in enabling the body to respond effectively to changes in blood pressure. These neurons can be separated into two types (A and C) based on the myelination...... of their axons and their distinct firing patterns elicited in response to specific pressure stimuli. This study has developed a comprehensive model of the afferent baroreceptor discharge built on physiological knowledge of arterial wall mechanics, firing rate responses to controlled pressure stimuli, and ion...

  13. Physical characterization of biomass fuels prepared for suspension firing in utility boilers for CFD modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendahl, Lasse; Yin, Chungen; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2007-01-01

    A sample of 1.2 kg Danish wheat straw (Jutland, 1997) prepared for suspension firing in a PF boiler has been analyzed for the purpose of generating size and shape distribution functions applicable to numerical modelling of combustion processes involving biomass, characterised by highly anisotropic...... shapes. The sample is subdivided by straw type, and coherent size, type and mass distribution parameters are reported for the entire sample. This type of data is necessary in order to use CFD reliably as a design and retrofit tool for co-firing biomass with fossil fuels, as the combustion processes...

  14. Reducing the computational requirements for simulating tunnel fires by combining multiscale modelling and multiple processor calculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Rein, Guillermo; Colella, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Multiscale modelling of tunnel fires that uses a coupled 3D (fire area) and 1D (the rest of the tunnel) model is seen as the solution to the numerical problem of the large domains associated with long tunnels. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of the implementation of this method...... in FDS version 6.0, a widely used fire-specific, open source CFD software. Furthermore, it compares the reduction in simulation time given by multiscale modelling with the one given by the use of multiple processor calculation. This was done using a 1200m long tunnel with a rectangular cross......-section as a demonstration case. The multiscale implementation consisted of placing a 30MW fire in the centre of a 400m long 3D domain, along with two 400m long 1D ducts on each side of it, that were again bounded by two nodes each. A fixed volume flow was defined in the upstream duct and the two models were coupled...

  15. Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxwell R Bennett

    Full Text Available Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular connections.

  16. From leaf longevity to canopy seasonality: a carbon optimality phenology model for tropical evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Wu, J.; Wright, S. J.; Kitajima, K.; Pacala, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical evergreen forests play a key role in the global carbon, water and energy cycles. Despite apparent evergreenness, this biome shows strong seasonality in leaf litter and photosynthesis. Recent studies have suggested that this seasonality is not directly related to environmental variability but is dominated by seasonal changes of leaf development and senescence. Meanwhile, current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) can not capture this pattern because leaf life cycle is highly underrepresented. One challenge to model this leaf life cycle is the remarkable diversity in leaf longevity, ranging from several weeks to multiple years. Ecologists have proposed models where leaf longevity is regarded as a strategy to optimize carbon gain. However previous optimality models can not be readily integrated into TBMs because (i) there are still large biases in predicted leaf longevity and (ii) it is never tested whether the carbon optimality model can capture the observed seasonality in leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. In this study, we develop a new carbon optimality model for leaf demography. The novelty of our approach is two-fold. First, we incorporate a mechanistic photosynthesis model that can better estimate leaf carbon gain. Second, we consider the interspecific variations in leaf senescence rate, which strongly influence the modelled optimal carbon gain. We test our model with a leaf trait database for Panamanian evergreen forests. Then, we apply the model at seasonal scale and compare simulated seasonality of leaf litter and canopy photosynthesis with in-situ observations from several Amazonian forest sites. We find that (i) compared with original optimality model, the regression slope between observed and predicted leaf longevity increases from 0.15 to 1.04 in our new model and (ii) that our new model can capture the observed seasonal variations of leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. Our results suggest that the phenology in tropical evergreen

  17. Statistical bias correction modelling for seasonal rainfall forecast for the case of Bali island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lealdi, D.; Nurdiati, S.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall is an element of climate which is highly influential to the agricultural sector. Rain pattern and distribution highly determines the sustainability of agricultural activities. Therefore, information on rainfall is very useful for agriculture sector and farmers in anticipating the possibility of extreme events which often cause failures of agricultural production. This research aims to identify the biases from seasonal forecast products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) rainfall forecast and to build a transfer function in order to correct the distribution biases as a new prediction model using quantile mapping approach. We apply this approach to the case of Bali Island, and as a result, the use of bias correction methods in correcting systematic biases from the model gives better results. The new prediction model obtained with this approach is better than ever. We found generally that during rainy season, the bias correction approach performs better than in dry season.

  18. Fire simulation in large compartments with a fire model 'CFAST'. Part 1. Survey of applicability for analyzing air-temperature profile in compartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sano, Tadashi

    2012-01-01

    The basic performance of numerical analysis of air-temperature profiles in large-scale compartments by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings is examined. Special attentions are paid to the dependence of the setting boundary conditions and the choosing model parameters. The simulations carried out under the denkyoken-test conditions, in which the air-temperature profiles in compartments and the heat-release rate of a fire have been precisely measured, indicate that the CFAST has a capability to appropriately represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment which includes the source of a fire, by applying the proper boundary conditions, i.e., time-histories of air-temperature in the upper (high temperature) layer given by the CFAST agree well with those of observations. The sensitivity analysis in the simulations also reveals that the appropriately setting of the boundary-conditions, especially for the heat-release ratio from a fire and the heat-transfer rate from walls of compartments to ambient air is vital. Contrary to this, the impacts of choosing numerical parameters on the air-temperature analysis are quite small. (author)

  19. Model fire tests on polyphosphazene rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber foams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widenor, W. M.

    1978-01-01

    A video tape record of model room fire tests was shown, comparing polyphosphazene (P-N) rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber closed-cell foams as interior finish thermal insulation under conditions directly translatable to an actual fire situation. Flashover did not occur with the P-N foam and only moderate amounts of low density smoke were formed, whereas with the PVC/nitrile foam, flashover occurred quickly and large volumes of high density smoke were emitted. The P-N foam was produced in a pilot plant under carefully controlled conditions. The PVC/nitrile foam was a commercial product. A major phase of the overall program involved fire tests on P-N open-cell foam cushioning.

  20. Control of clustered action potential firing in a mathematical model of entorhinal cortex stellate cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Luke; Wedgwood, Kyle; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Brown, Jon T; Goodfellow, Marc

    2018-07-14

    The entorhinal cortex is a crucial component of our memory and spatial navigation systems and is one of the first areas to be affected in dementias featuring tau pathology, such as Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. Electrophysiological recordings from principle cells of medial entorhinal cortex (layer II stellate cells, mEC-SCs) demonstrate a number of key identifying properties including subthreshold oscillations in the theta (4-12 Hz) range and clustered action potential firing. These single cell properties are correlated with network activity such as grid firing and coupling between theta and gamma rhythms, suggesting they are important for spatial memory. As such, experimental models of dementia have revealed disruption of organised dorsoventral gradients in clustered action potential firing. To better understand the mechanisms underpinning these different dynamics, we study a conductance based model of mEC-SCs. We demonstrate that the model, driven by extrinsic noise, can capture quantitative differences in clustered action potential firing patterns recorded from experimental models of tau pathology and healthy animals. The differential equation formulation of our model allows us to perform numerical bifurcation analyses in order to uncover the dynamic mechanisms underlying these patterns. We show that clustered dynamics can be understood as subcritical Hopf/homoclinic bursting in a fast-slow system where the slow sub-system is governed by activation of the persistent sodium current and inactivation of the slow A-type potassium current. In the full system, we demonstrate that clustered firing arises via flip bifurcations as conductance parameters are varied. Our model analyses confirm the experimentally suggested hypothesis that the breakdown of clustered dynamics in disease occurs via increases in AHP conductance. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  2. Structured spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox point process models, with a view to modelling forest fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos

    Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... dataset consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....

  3. Investigation of seasonal thermal flow in a real dam reservoir using 3-D numerical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Üneş Fatih

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Investigations indicate that correct estimation of seasonal thermal stratification in a dam reservoir is very important for the dam reservoir water quality modeling and water management problems. The main aim of this study is to develop a hydrodynamics model of an actual dam reservoir in three dimensions for simulating a real dam reservoir flows for different seasons. The model is developed using nonlinear and unsteady continuity, momentum, energy and k-ε turbulence model equations. In order to include the Coriolis force effect on the flow in a dam reservoir, Coriolis force parameter is also added the model equations. Those equations are constructed using actual dimensions, shape, boundary and initial conditions of the dam and reservoir. Temperature profiles and flow visualizations are used to evaluate flow conditions in the reservoir. Reservoir flow’s process and parameters are determined all over the reservoir. The mathematical model developed is capable of simulating the flow and thermal characteristics of the reservoir system for seasonal heat exchanges. Model simulations results obtained are compared with field measurements obtained from gauging stations for flows in different seasons. The results show a good agreement with the field measurements.

  4. Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gui-Quan Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction number Rd is obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction number R0 cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional condition Rd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

  5. Influence of Fire Mosaics, Habitat Characteristics and Cattle Disturbance on Mammals in Fire-Prone Savanna Landscapes of the Northern Kimberley.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Radford

    Full Text Available Patch mosaic burning, in which fire is used to produce a mosaic of habitat patches representative of a range of fire histories ('pyrodiversity', has been widely advocated to promote greater biodiversity. However, the details of desired fire mosaics for prescribed burning programs are often unspecified. Threatened small to medium-sized mammals (35 g to 5.5 kg in the fire-prone tropical savannas of Australia appear to be particularly fire-sensitive. Consequently, a clear understanding of which properties of fire mosaics are most instrumental in influencing savanna mammal populations is critical. Here we use mammal capture data, remotely sensed fire information (i.e. time since last fire, fire frequency, frequency of late dry season fires, diversity of post-fire ages in 3 km radius, and spatial extent of recently burnt, intermediate and long unburnt habitat and structural habitat attributes (including an index of cattle disturbance to examine which characteristics of fire mosaics most influence mammals in the north-west Kimberley. We used general linear models to examine the relationship between fire mosaic and habitat attributes on total mammal abundance and richness, and the abundance of the most commonly detected species. Strong negative associations of mammal abundance and richness with frequency of late dry season fires, the spatial extent of recently burnt habitat (post-fire age <1 year within 3 km radius and level of cattle disturbance were observed. Shrub cover was positively related to both mammal abundance and richness, and availability of rock crevices, ground vegetation cover and spatial extent of ≥4 years unburnt habitat were all positively associated with at least some of the mammal species modelled. We found little support for diversity of post-fire age classes in the models. Our results indicate that both a high frequency of intense late dry season fires and extensive, recently burnt vegetation are likely to be detrimental to

  6. Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available re-forecasts) made at lead-times which are the result of forcing the CCAM with predicted SST (while the sea-ice remains specified as climatological values) in order to determine how the model can be expected to perform under real-time operational...

  7. A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

    2015-08-01

    Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

  8. Seasonal variability of salinity and circulation in a silled estuarine fjord: A numerical model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Mitsuhiro; Bang, Bohyun

    2013-12-01

    A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study seasonal variability of circulation and hydrography in Hood Canal, Washington, United States, an estuarine fjord that develops seasonally hypoxic conditions. The model is validated with data from year 2006, and is shown to be capable of quantitatively realistic simulation of hydrographic variability. Sensitivity experiments show the largest cause of seasonal variability to be that of salinity at the mouth of the fjord, which drives an annual deep water renewal in late summer-early autumn. Variability of fresh water input from the watershed also causes significant but secondary changes, especially in winter. Local wind stress has little effect over the seasonal timescale. Further experiments, in which one forcing parameter is abruptly altered while others are kept constant, show that outside salinity change induces an immediate response in the exchange circulation that, however, decays as a transient as the system equilibrates. In contrast, a change in the river input initiates gradual adjustment towards a new equilibrium value for the exchange transport. It is hypothesized that the spectral character of the system response to river variability will be redder than to salinity variability. This is demonstrated with a stochastically forced, semi-analytical model of fjord exchange circulation. While the exchange circulation in Hood Canal appears less sensitive to the river variability than to the outside hydrography at seasonal timescales, at decadal and longer timescales both could become significant factors in affecting the exchange circulation.

  9. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  10. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  11. Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling<