WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelled deltar values

  1. Cartilage quality in rheumatoid arthritis: comparison of T2* mapping, native T1 mapping, dGEMRIC, {delta}R1 and value of pre-contrast imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchbender, Christian; Scherer, Axel; Kroepil, Patric; Quentin, Michael; Reichelt, Dorothea C.; Lanzman, Rotem S.; Mathys, Christian; Blondin, Dirk; Wittsack, Hans-Joerg; Antoch, Gerald; Miese, Falk [University Duesseldorf, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Koerbl, Birthe [Heinrich-Heine-University, Department of Endocrinology, Diabetology and Rheumatology, Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine-University, Leibniz Centre for Diabetes Research, Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Centre, Duesseldorf (Germany); Bittersohl, Bernd; Zilkens, Christoph [Heinrich-Heine-University, Department of Orthopaedics, Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hofer, Matthias [Heinrich-Heine-University, Medical Education Group, Medical School, Duesseldorf (Germany); Schneider, Matthias; Ostendorf, Benedikt [Heinrich-Heine-University, Department of Endocrinology, Diabetology and Rheumatology, Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    To prospectively evaluate four non-invasive markers of cartilage quality - T2* mapping, native T1 mapping, dGEMRIC and {delta}R1 - in healthy volunteers and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Cartilage of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints II were imaged in 28 consecutive subjects: 12 healthy volunteers [9 women, mean (SD) age 52.67 (9.75) years, range 30-66] and 16 RA patients with MCP II involvement [12 women, mean (SD) age 58.06 (12.88) years, range 35-76]. Sagittal T2* mapping was performed with a multi-echo gradient-echo on a 3 T MRI scanner. For T1 mapping the dual flip angle method was applied prior to native T1 mapping and 40 min after gadolinium application (delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage, dGEMRIC, T1{sub Gd}). The difference in the longitudinal relaxation rate induced by gadolinium ({delta}R1) was calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to test for differentiation of RA patients from healthy volunteers. dGEMRIC (AUC 0.81) and {delta}R1 (AUC 0.75) significantly differentiated RA patients from controls. T2* mapping (AUC 0.66) and native T1 mapping (AUC 0.66) were not significantly different in RA patients compared to controls. The data support the use of dGEMRIC for the assessment of MCP joint cartilage quality in RA. T2* and native T1 mapping are of low diagnostic value. Pre-contrast T1 mapping for the calculation of {delta}R1 does not increase the diagnostic value of dGEMRIC. (orig.)

  2. [The diagnostic value of delta-R and delta-Q as positive criteria of the ergometry test in a group of patients with angina pectoris of effort].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doria, G; Cangemi, F; Gulizia, M; Cuocina, N; Tosto, A; Circo, A

    1989-11-01

    ECG-exercise tests were performed in 29 patients affected by effort chest pain. All patients underwent coronary angiography and/or revealed positive results in the cycloergometer effort test. The aim of the study was to evaluate ultrasonic variations in the R and Q waves due to maximal effort, so as to increase the information provided by the effort ECG. In the coronary angiographic test, 21 out of 29 patients revealed significant hemodynamic coronary stenosis; 10 patients were affected by previous myocardial necrosis; 8 patients showed no hemodynamic coronary lesions (OV). In the OV patients a statistically significant increase was observed in the Q wave at maximal effort in comparison with average basal values; on the other hand, there was a decrease, although not significant, in voltage at peak effort in patients with coronary stenosis. R wave amplitude was smaller in comparison to basal values in OV patients, while a significant increase was observed in the 21 patients with coronary lesions.

  3. Demonstrator Flood Control Room : Inventarisatie van de wensen van de verschillende Deltares onderdelen en een hierop gebaseerd ontwerp

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boertjens, G.J.; Attema-van Waas, A.R.; Guikema, M.; Schilder, C.M.C.; Veen, M.J. van der

    2009-01-01

    Op basis van het uitgevoerde onderzoek trekt TNO de volgende conclusies: • De bestaande ruimte die Deltares op het oog heeft voor de realisatie van de trainingsruimte is klein. Een eerste fase van de gewenste Flood Control Room is realiseerbaar in deze ruimte, met inachtneming dat niet alle

  4. The North Atlantic marine reservoir effect in the Early Holocene: Implications for defining and understanding MRE values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ascough, P.L. [School of Geography and Geosciences, Irvine Building, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pla1@st-andrews.ac.uk; Cook, G.T. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre, Scottish Enterprise Technology Park, Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 OQF (United Kingdom); Dugmore, A.J. [Institute of Geography, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP (United Kingdom); Scott, E.M. [Department of Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    The marine reservoir effect (MRE) is a {sup 14}C age offset between the oceanic and atmospheric carbon reservoirs. The MRE is neither spatially nor temporally constant and values may deviate significantly from the global model average provided by the Marine04 curve. Such a deviation is calculated as a {delta}R value and modern (pre-bomb) values show considerable spatial variations. There is also considerable evidence for temporal variability linked to paleoenvironmental changes identified in paleoclimatic proxy records. Seven new {delta}R values are presented for the North Atlantic, relating to the period c. 8430-3890 cal. BP (c. 6480-1940 BC). These were obtained from {sup 14}C analysis of multiple samples of terrestrial and marine material derived from seven individual archaeological deposits from Mainland Scotland, the Outer Hebrides and the Orkney Isles. The {delta}R values vary between 143 {+-} 20 {sup 14}C yr and -100 {+-} 15 {sup 14}C yr with the positive values all occurring in the earlier period (8430-5060 cal. BP), and the negative values all coming from later deposits (4820-3890 cal. BP). The nature of MRE values and the potential for spatial and temporal variation in values is the subject of current research interest and these data are placed in the context of (i) other estimates for UK coastal waters and (ii) important questions concerning current approaches to quantifying the MRE.

  5. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  6. Achieving Value in Primary Care: The Primary Care Value Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollow, William; Cucchiara, Peter

    2016-03-01

    The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) model provides a compelling vision for primary care transformation, but studies of its impact have used insufficiently patient-centered metrics with inconsistent results. We propose a framework for defining patient-centered value and a new model for value-based primary care transformation: the primary care value model (PCVM). We advocate for use of patient-centered value when measuring the impact of primary care transformation, recognition, and performance-based payment; for financial support and research and development to better define primary care value-creating activities and their implementation; and for use of the model to support primary care organizations in transformation. © 2016 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

  7. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and inundation of barrier islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoonhout, B.; Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.

    2012-01-01

    Physical model experiments are performed at Deltares to investigate the morphological response of barrier islands on extreme storm events. The experiments included dune erosion, overwash and inundation regimes. Extensive measurement techniques made detailed comparison with numerical models possible.

  8. E3value to BPMN model transformation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fatemi, Hassan; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Wieringa, P.A.; Camarinha-Matos, Luis M.; Pereira Klen, Alexandra; Afsarmanesh, Hamidesh

    2011-01-01

    Business value and coordination process perspectives need to be taken into consideration while modeling business collaborations. The need for these two models stems from the importance of separating the how from the what concerns. A business value model shows what is offered by whom to whom while a

  9. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  10. Value-Oriented Coordination Process Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fatemi, Hassan; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Hull, Richard; Mendling, Jan; Tai, Stefan

    Business webs are collections of enterprises designed to jointly satisfy a consumer need. Designing business webs calls for modeling the collaboration of enterprises from different perspectives, in particular the business value and coordination process perspectives, and for mutually aligning these

  11. Comparison of perceived value structural models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunčana Piri Rajh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Perceived value has been considered an important determinant of consumer shopping behavior and studied as such for a long period of time. According to one research stream, perceived value is a variable determined by perceived quality and perceived sacrifice. Another research stream suggests that the perception of value is a result of the consumer risk perception. This implies the presence of two somewhat independent research streams that are integrated by a third research stream – the one suggesting that perceived value is a result of perceived quality and perceived sacrifices while perceived (performance and financial risk mediates the relationship between perceived quality and perceived sacrifices on the one hand, and perceived value on the other. This paper describes the three approaches (models that have been mentioned. The aim of the paper is to determine which of the observed models show the most acceptable level of fit to the empirical data. Using the survey method, research involving three product categories has been conducted on a sample of Croatian consumers. Collected data was analyzed by the structural equation modeling (SEM method. Research has shown an appropriate level of fit of each observed model to the empirical data. However, the model measuring the effect of perceived risk on perceived value indicates the best level of fit, which implies that perceived performance risk and perceived financial risk are the best predictors of perceived value.

  12. p-values for model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaujean, F.; Caldwell, A.; Kollar, D.; Kroeninger, K.

    2011-01-01

    Deciding whether a model provides a good description of data is often based on a goodness-of-fit criterion summarized by a p-value. Although there is considerable confusion concerning the meaning of p-values, leading to their misuse, they are nevertheless of practical importance in common data analysis tasks. We motivate their application using a Bayesian argumentation. We then describe commonly and less commonly known discrepancy variables and how they are used to define p-values. The distribution of these are then extracted for examples modeled on typical data analysis tasks, and comments on their usefulness for determining goodness-of-fit are given.

  13. p-values for model evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaujean, Frederik; Caldwell, Allen [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Kollar, Daniel [CERN, Genf (Switzerland); Kroeninger, Kevin [Georg-August-Universitaet, Goettingen (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    In the analysis of experimental results it is often necessary to pass a judgment on the validity of a model as a representation of the data. A quantitative procedure to decide whether a model provides a good description of data is often based on a specific test statistic and a p-value summarizing both the data and the statistic's sampling distribution. Although there is considerable confusion concerning the meaning of p-values, leading to their misuse, they are nevertheless of practical importance in common data analysis tasks. We motivate the application of p-values using a Bayesian argumentation. We then describe commonly and less commonly known test statistics and how they are used to define p-values. The distribution of these are then extracted for examples modeled on typical new physics searches in high energy physics. We comment on their usefulness for determining goodness-of-fit and highlight some common pitfalls.

  14. The value of multivariate model sophistication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    We assess the predictive accuracies of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set of 444 multivariate models that differ in their spec......We assess the predictive accuracies of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set of 444 multivariate models that differ...... in their specification of the conditional variance, conditional correlation, innovation distribution, and estimation approach. All of the models belong to the dynamic conditional correlation class, which is particularly suitable because it allows consistent estimations of the risk neutral dynamics with a manageable....... In addition to investigating the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses directly, we also use the model confidence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performances....

  15. From business value model to coordination process model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fatemi, Hassan; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Poler, R.; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Sanchis, R.

    2009-01-01

    The increased complexity of business webs calls for modeling the collaboration of enterprises from different perspectives, in particular the business and process perspectives, and for mutually aligning these perspectives. Business value modeling and coordination process modeling both are necessary

  16. Variants of Modeling Dwelling Market Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barańska Anna

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The object of this paper is to determine real estate market value on the basis of a multidimensional function model in different variants: A - directly from the model estimated on the basis of a big database, B - from the same model form, but estimated on the basis of a reduced database consisting of dwellings most similar to the estimated one, and C - based on modeled prices corrected by random correction, calculated from random deviations for dwellings most similar to the assessed one. In the framework of statistical inference procedures, the resulting comparison was carried out by parametric significance tests. They were applied to draw conclusions on the analyzed variants

  17. New Trends, News Values, and New Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Mary Anne

    1996-01-01

    Explores implications of the prediction that in the next millennium the public will experience a scarcity of knowledge and a surplus of information. Reviews research suggesting that journalists focus on these news values: emphasizing how/why, devaluing immediacy, specializing/analyzing, representing a constituency. Examines two new models of…

  18. An Alignment Model for Collaborative Value Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bremer, Carlos; Azevedo, Rodrigo Cambiaghi; Klen, Alexandra Pereira

    This paper presents parts of the work carried out in several global organizations through the development of strategic projects with high tactical and operational complexity. By investing in long-term relationships, strongly operating in the transformation of the competitive model and focusing on the value chain management, the main aim of these projects was the alignment of multiple value chains. The projects were led by the Axia Transformation Methodology as well as by its Management Model and following the principles of Project Management. As a concrete result of the efforts made in the last years in the Brazilian market this work also introduces the Alignment Model which supports the transformation process that the companies undergo.

  19. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...

  20. From Business Value Model to Coordination Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatemi, Hassan; van Sinderen, Marten; Wieringa, Roel

    The increased complexity of business webs calls for modeling the collaboration of enterprises from different perspectives, in particular the business and process perspectives, and for mutually aligning these perspectives. Business value modeling and coordination process modeling both are necessary for a good e-business design, but these activities have different goals and use different concepts. Nevertheless, the resulting models should be consistent with each other because they refer to the same system from different perspectives. Hence, checking the consistency between these models or producing one based on the other would be of high value. In this paper we discuss the issue of achieving consistency in multi-level e-business design and give guidelines to produce consistent coordination process models from business value models in a stepwise manner.

  1. Norms and values in sociohydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; van Emmerik, Tim H. M.; Elshafei, Yasmina; Kandasamy, Jaya; Sanderson, Matthew R.; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuthu; Pande, Saket; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2018-02-01

    Sustainable water resources management relies on understanding how societies and water systems coevolve. Many place-based sociohydrology (SH) modeling studies use proxies, such as environmental degradation, to capture key elements of the social component of system dynamics. Parameters of assumed relationships between environmental degradation and the human response to it are usually obtained through calibration. Since these relationships are not yet underpinned by social-science theories, confidence in the predictive power of such place-based sociohydrologic models remains low. The generalizability of SH models therefore requires major advances in incorporating more realistic relationships, underpinned by appropriate hydrological and social-science data and theories. The latter is a critical input, since human culture - especially values and norms arising from it - influences behavior and the consequences of behaviors. This paper reviews a key social-science theory that links cultural factors to environmental decision-making, assesses how to better incorporate social-science insights to enhance SH models, and raises important questions to be addressed in moving forward. This is done in the context of recent progress in sociohydrological studies and the gaps that remain to be filled. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and opportunities in terms of generalization of SH models and the use of available data to allow future prediction and model transfer to ungauged basins.

  2. Norms and values in sociohydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Roobavannan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable water resources management relies on understanding how societies and water systems coevolve. Many place-based sociohydrology (SH modeling studies use proxies, such as environmental degradation, to capture key elements of the social component of system dynamics. Parameters of assumed relationships between environmental degradation and the human response to it are usually obtained through calibration. Since these relationships are not yet underpinned by social-science theories, confidence in the predictive power of such place-based sociohydrologic models remains low. The generalizability of SH models therefore requires major advances in incorporating more realistic relationships, underpinned by appropriate hydrological and social-science data and theories. The latter is a critical input, since human culture – especially values and norms arising from it – influences behavior and the consequences of behaviors. This paper reviews a key social-science theory that links cultural factors to environmental decision-making, assesses how to better incorporate social-science insights to enhance SH models, and raises important questions to be addressed in moving forward. This is done in the context of recent progress in sociohydrological studies and the gaps that remain to be filled. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and opportunities in terms of generalization of SH models and the use of available data to allow future prediction and model transfer to ungauged basins.

  3. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  4. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  5. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  6. The Advancement Value Chain: An Exploratory Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Edward F., III

    2005-01-01

    Since the introduction of the value chain concept in 1985, several varying, yet virtually similar, value chains have been developed for the business enterprise. Shifting to higher education, can a value chain be found that links together the various activities of advancement so that an institution's leaders can actually look at the philanthropic…

  7. Comparison of perceived value structural models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunčana Piri Rajh

    2012-01-01

    Perceived value has been considered an important determinant of consumer shopping behavior and studied as such for a long period of time. According to one research stream, perceived value is a variable determined by perceived quality and perceived sacrifice. Another research stream suggests that the perception of value is a result of the consumer risk perception. This implies the presence of two somewhat independent research streams that are integrated by a third research stream – the one sug...

  8. One-Step Dynamic Classifier Ensemble Model for Customer Value Segmentation with Missing Values

    OpenAIRE

    Jin Xiao; Bing Zhu; Geer Teng; Changzheng He; Dunhu Liu

    2014-01-01

    Scientific customer value segmentation (CVS) is the base of efficient customer relationship management, and customer credit scoring, fraud detection, and churn prediction all belong to CVS. In real CVS, the customer data usually include lots of missing values, which may affect the performance of CVS model greatly. This study proposes a one-step dynamic classifier ensemble model for missing values (ODCEM) model. On the one hand, ODCEM integrates the preprocess of missing values and the classif...

  9. Value Reappraisal as a Conceptual Model for Task-Value Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acee, Taylor W.; Weinstein, Claire Ellen; Hoang, Theresa V.; Flaggs, Darolyn A.

    2018-01-01

    We discuss task-value interventions as one type of relevance intervention and propose a process model of value reappraisal whereby task-value interventions elicit cognitive-affective responses that lead to attitude change and in turn affect academic outcomes. The model incorporates a metacognitive component showing that students can intentionally…

  10. Mean Value Modelling of Turbocharged SI Engines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Martin; Hendricks, Elbert; Sorenson, Spencer C.

    1998-01-01

    The development of a computer simulation to predict the performance of a turbocharged spark ignition engine during transient operation. New models have been developed for the turbocharged and the intercooling system. An adiabatic model for the intake manifold is presented.......The development of a computer simulation to predict the performance of a turbocharged spark ignition engine during transient operation. New models have been developed for the turbocharged and the intercooling system. An adiabatic model for the intake manifold is presented....

  11. PV panel model based on datasheet values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sera, Dezso; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2007-01-01

    This work presents the construction of a model for a PV panel using the single-diode five-parameters model, based exclusively on data-sheet parameters. The model takes into account the series and parallel (shunt) resistance of the panel. The equivalent circuit and the basic equations of the PV cell...

  12. The New Digital Media Value Network: Proposing an Interactive Model of Digital Media Value Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Chan-Olmsted

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study models the dynamic nature of today’s media markets using the framework of value-adding activities in the provision and consumption of media products. The proposed user-centric approach introduces the notion that the actions of external users, social media, and interfaces affect the internal value activities of media firms via a feedback loop, and therefore should themselves be considered value activities. The model also suggests a more comprehensive list of indicators for value assessment.

  13. Modeling value creation with enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, Prince Mayurank; Jonkers, H.; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; van Sinderen, Marten J.

    2014-01-01

    Firms may not succeed in business if strategies are not properly implemented in practice. Every firm needs to know, represent and master its value creation logic, not only to stay in business but also to keep growing. This paper is about focusing on an important topic in the field of strategic

  14. The added value of business models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, Harry van

    An overview of innovations in a particular area, for example retail developments in the fashion sector (Van Vliet, 2014), and a subsequent discussion about the probability as to whether these innovations will realise a ‘breakthrough’, has to be supplemented with the question of what the added value

  15. One-Step Dynamic Classifier Ensemble Model for Customer Value Segmentation with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Scientific customer value segmentation (CVS is the base of efficient customer relationship management, and customer credit scoring, fraud detection, and churn prediction all belong to CVS. In real CVS, the customer data usually include lots of missing values, which may affect the performance of CVS model greatly. This study proposes a one-step dynamic classifier ensemble model for missing values (ODCEM model. On the one hand, ODCEM integrates the preprocess of missing values and the classification modeling into one step; on the other hand, it utilizes multiple classifiers ensemble technology in constructing the classification models. The empirical results in credit scoring dataset “German” from UCI and the real customer churn prediction dataset “China churn” show that the ODCEM outperforms four commonly used “two-step” models and the ensemble based model LMF and can provide better decision support for market managers.

  16. Modeling churn using customer lifetime value

    OpenAIRE

    Glady, Nicolas; Baesens, Bart; Croux, Christophe

    2009-01-01

    The definition and modeling of customer loyalty have been central issues in customer relationship management since many years. Recent papers propose solutions to detect customers that are becoming less loyal, also called churners. The churner status is then defined as a function of the volume of commercial transactions. In the context of a Belgian retail financial service company, our first contribution is to redefine the notion of customer loyalty by considering it from a customer-centric vi...

  17. Measuring Teacher Quality with Value-Added Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marder, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Using computers to evaluate teachers based on student test scores is more difficult than it seems. Value-added modeling is a genuinely serious attempt to grapple with the difficulties. Value-added modeling carries the promise of measuring teacher quality automatically and objectively, and improving school systems at minimal cost. The essence of…

  18. Mean Value Engine Modelling of an SI Engine with EGR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Føns, Michael; Müller, Martin; Chevalier, Alain

    1999-01-01

    Mean Value Engine Models (MVEMs) are simplified, dynamic engine models what are physically based. Such models are useful for control studies, for engine control system analysis and for model based engine control systems. Very few published MVEMs have included the effects of Exhaust Gas Recirculat...

  19. Multi-Valued Modal Fixed Point Logics for Model Checking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishizawa, Koki

    In this paper, I will show how multi-valued logics are used for model checking. Model checking is an automatic technique to analyze correctness of hardware and software systems. A model checker is based on a temporal logic or a modal fixed point logic. That is to say, a system to be checked is formalized as a Kripke model, a property to be satisfied by the system is formalized as a temporal formula or a modal formula, and the model checker checks that the Kripke model satisfies the formula. Although most existing model checkers are based on 2-valued logics, recently new attempts have been made to extend the underlying logics of model checkers to multi-valued logics. I will summarize these new results.

  20. Self-Service Banking: Value Creation Models and Information Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ragnvald Sannes

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that most banks have failed to exploit the potential of self-service banking because they base their service design on an incomplete business model for self-service. A framework for evaluation of self-service banking concepts is developed on the basis of Stabell and Fjeldstad's three value configurations. The value network and the value shop are consistent with self-service banking while the value chain is inappropriate. The impact of the value configurations on information exchange and self-service functionality is discussed, and a framework for design of such services proposed. Current self-service banking practices are compared to the framework, and it is concluded that current practice matches the concept of a value network and not the value shop. However, current practices are only a partial implementation of a value network-based self-service banking concept.

  1. Environment Modeling Using Runtime Values for JPF-Android

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Merwe, Heila; Tkachuk, Oksana; Nel, Seal; van der Merwe, Brink; Visser, Willem

    2015-01-01

    Software applications are developed to be executed in a specific environment. This environment includes external native libraries to add functionality to the application and drivers to fire the application execution. For testing and verification, the environment of an application is simplified abstracted using models or stubs. Empty stubs, returning default values, are simple to generate automatically, but they do not perform well when the application expects specific return values. Symbolic execution is used to find input parameters for drivers and return values for library stubs, but it struggles to detect the values of complex objects. In this work-in-progress paper, we explore an approach to generate drivers and stubs based on values collected during runtime instead of using default values. Entry-points and methods that need to be modeled are instrumented to log their parameters and return values. The instrumented applications are then executed using a driver and instrumented libraries. The values collected during runtime are used to generate driver and stub values on- the-fly that improve coverage during verification by enabling the execution of code that previously crashed or was missed. We are implementing this approach to improve the environment model of JPF-Android, our model checking and analysis tool for Android applications.

  2. The Residual Value Models: A Framework for Business Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Konstantinos J. Liapis

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the relationship between a firm’s performance and Residual Value Models (RVM) which serve as decision making tools in corporate management. The main measures are the Economic Value Added (EVA®) and Cash Value Added (CVA®), with key components the Residual Income (RI), Free Cash Flow (FCF) and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). These measures have attracted considerable interest among scientists, practitioners and organizations in recent years. This work focuses...

  3. Brownian gas models for extreme-value laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we establish one-dimensional Brownian gas models for the extreme-value laws of Gumbel, Weibull, and Fréchet. A gas model is a countable collection of independent particles governed by common diffusion dynamics. The extreme-value laws are the universal probability distributions governing the affine scaling limits of the maxima and minima of ensembles of independent and identically distributed one-dimensional random variables. Using the recently introduced concept of stationary Poissonian intensities, we construct two gas models whose global statistical structures are stationary, and yield the extreme-value laws: a linear Brownian motion gas model for the Gumbel law, and a geometric Brownian motion gas model for the Weibull and Fréchet laws. The stochastic dynamics of these gas models are studied in detail, and closed-form analytical descriptions of their temporal correlation structures, their topological phase transitions, and their intrinsic first-passage-time fluxes are presented. (paper)

  4. Stakeholder Theory and Value Creation Models in Brazilian Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Giugni Vidal

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The purpose of this study is to understand how top Brazilian firms think about and communicate value creation to their stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach – We use qualitative content analysis methodology to analyze the sustainability or annual integrated reports of the top 25 Brazilian firms by sales revenue. Findings – Based on our analysis, these firms were classified into three main types of stakeholder value creation models: narrow, broad, or transitioning from narrow to broad. We find that many of the firms in our sample are in a transition state between narrow and broad stakeholder value creation models. We also identify seven areas of concentration discussed by firms in creating value for stakeholders: better stakeholder relationships, better work environment, environmental preservation, increased customer base, local development, reputation, and stakeholder dialogue. Practical implications – This study shows a trend towards broader stakeholder value creation models in Brazilian firms. The findings of this study may inform practitioners interested in broadening their value creation models. Originality/value – This study adds to the discussion of stakeholder theory in the Brazilian context by understanding variations in value creation orientation in Brazil.

  5. Value Creation Challenges in Multichannel Retail Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mika Yrjölä

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to identify and analyze the challenges of value creation in multichannel retail business models. Design/methodology/approach: With the help of semi-structured interviews with top executives from different retailing environments, this study introduces a model of value creation challenges in the context of multichannel retailing. The challenges are analyzed in terms of three retail business model elements, i.e., format, activities, and governance. Findings: Adopting a multichannel retail business model requires critical rethinking of the basic building blocks of value creation. First of all, as customers effortlessly move between multiple channels, multichannel formats can lead to a mismatch between customer and firm value. Secondly, retailers face pressures to use their activities to form integrated total offerings to customers. Thirdly, multiple channels might lead to organizational silos with conflicting goals. A careful orchestration of value creation is needed to determine the roles and incentives of the channel parties involved. Research limitations/implications: In contrast to previous business model literature, this study did not adopt a network-centric view. By embracing the boundary-spanning nature of the business model, other challenges and elements might have been discovered (e.g., challenges in managing relationships with suppliers. Practical implications: As a practical contribution, this paper has analyzed the challenges retailers face in adopting multichannel business models. Customer tendencies for showrooming behavior highlight the need for generating efficient lock-in strategies. Customized, personal offers and information are ways to increase customer value, differentiate from competition, and achieve lock-in. Originality/value: As a theoretical contribution, this paper empirically investigates value creation challenges in a specific context, lowering the level of abstraction in the mostly

  6. Integral-Value Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Models of preferences between outcomes over continuous time are important for individual, corporate, and social decision making, e.g., medical treatment, infrastructure development, and environmental regulation. This paper presents a foundation for such models. It shows that conditions on prefere...... on preferences between real- or vector-valued outcomes over continuous time are satisfied if and only if the preferences are represented by a value function having an integral form......Models of preferences between outcomes over continuous time are important for individual, corporate, and social decision making, e.g., medical treatment, infrastructure development, and environmental regulation. This paper presents a foundation for such models. It shows that conditions...

  7. Models of consumer value cocreation in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nambisan, Priya; Nambisan, Satish

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, consumer participation in health care has gained critical importance as health care organizations (HCOs) seek varied avenues to enhance the quality and the value of their offerings. Many large HCOs have established online health communities where health care consumers (patients) can interact with one another to share knowledge and offer emotional support in disease management and care. Importantly, the focus of consumer participation in health care has moved beyond such personal health care management as the potential for consumers to participate in innovation and value creation in varied areas of the health care industry becomes increasingly evident. Realizing such potential, however, will require HCOs to develop a better understanding of the varied types of consumer value cocreation that are enabled by new information and communication technologies such as online health communities and Web 2.0 (social media) technologies. This article seeks to contribute toward such an understanding by offering a concise and coherent theoretical framework to analyze consumer value cocreation in health care. We identify four alternate models of consumer value cocreation-the partnership model, the open-source model, the support-group model, and the diffusion model-and discuss their implications for HCOs. We develop our theoretical framework by drawing on theories and concepts in knowledge creation, innovation management, and online communities. A set of propositions are developed by combining theoretical insights from these areas with real-world examples of consumer value cocreation in health care. The theoretical framework offered here informs on the potential impact of the different models of consumer value cocreation on important organizational variables such as innovation cost and time, service quality, and consumer perceptions of HCO. An understanding of the four models of consumer value cocreation can help HCOs adopt appropriate strategies and practices to

  8. [Healthcare value chain: a model for the Brazilian healthcare system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedroso, Marcelo Caldeira; Malik, Ana Maria

    2012-10-01

    This article presents a model of the healthcare value chain which consists of a schematic representation of the Brazilian healthcare system. The proposed model is adapted for the Brazilian reality and has the scope and flexibility for use in academic activities and analysis of the healthcare sector in Brazil. It places emphasis on three components: the main activities of the value chain, grouped in vertical and horizontal links; the mission of each link and the main value chain flows. The proposed model consists of six vertical and three horizontal links, amounting to nine. These are: knowledge development; supply of products and technologies; healthcare services; financial intermediation; healthcare financing; healthcare consumption; regulation; distribution of healthcare products; and complementary and support services. Four flows can be used to analyze the value chain: knowledge and innovation; products and services; financial; and information.

  9. Integer Valued Autoregressive Models for Tipping Bucket Rainfall Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyregod, Peter; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    A new method for modelling the dynamics of rain sampled by a tipping bucket rain gauge is proposed. The considered models belong to the class of integer valued autoregressive processes. The models take the autocorelation and discrete nature of the data into account. A first order, a second order...... and a threshold model are presented together with methods to estimate the parameters of each model. The models are demonstrated to provide a good description of dt from actual rain events requiring only two to four parameters....

  10. Creating Value Through the Freemium Business Model: A Consumer Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.J. Rietveld (Joost)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a consumer-centric framework for creating value through the freemium business model. Goods that are commercialized through the freemium business model offer basic functionality for free and monetize users for extended use or complementary features. Compared to premium

  11. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  12. A matrix model for valuing anesthesia service with the resource-based relative value system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, David R; Lubarsky, David A; Vigoda, Michael M; Birnbach, David J; Harris, Eric A; Behrens, Vicente; Bazan, Richard E; Williams, Steve M; Arheart, Kristopher; Candiotti, Keith A

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to propose a new crosswalk using the resource-based relative value system (RBRVS) that preserves the time unit component of the anesthesia service and disaggregates anesthesia billing into component parts (preoperative evaluation, intraoperative management, and postoperative evaluation). The study was designed as an observational chart and billing data review of current and proposed payments, in the setting of a preoperative holing area, intraoperative suite, and post anesthesia care unit. In total, 1,195 charts of American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) physical status 1 through 5 patients were reviewed. No direct patient interventions were undertaken. Spearman correlations between the proposed RBRVS billing matrix payments and the current ASA relative value guide methodology payments were strong (r=0.94-0.96, Pbilling matrix yielded payments that were 3.0%±1.34% less than would have been expected from commercial insurers, using standard rates for commercial ASA relative value units and RBRVS relative value units. Compared with current Medicare reimbursement under the ASA relative value guide, reimbursement would almost double when converting to an RBRVS billing model. The greatest increases in Medicare reimbursement between the current system and proposed billing model occurred as anesthetic management complexity increased. The new crosswalk correlates with existing evaluation and management and intensive care medicine codes in an essentially revenue neutral manner when applied to the market-based rates of commercial insurers. The new system more highly values delivery of care to more complex patients undergoing more complex surgery and better represents the true value of anesthetic case management.

  13. A matrix model for valuing anesthesia service with the resource-based relative value system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, David R; Lubarsky, David A; Vigoda, Michael M; Birnbach, David J; Harris, Eric A; Behrens, Vicente; Bazan, Richard E; Williams, Steve M; Arheart, Kristopher; Candiotti, Keith A

    2014-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to propose a new crosswalk using the resource-based relative value system (RBRVS) that preserves the time unit component of the anesthesia service and disaggregates anesthesia billing into component parts (preoperative evaluation, intraoperative management, and postoperative evaluation). The study was designed as an observational chart and billing data review of current and proposed payments, in the setting of a preoperative holing area, intraoperative suite, and post anesthesia care unit. In total, 1,195 charts of American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) physical status 1 through 5 patients were reviewed. No direct patient interventions were undertaken. Results Spearman correlations between the proposed RBRVS billing matrix payments and the current ASA relative value guide methodology payments were strong (r=0.94–0.96, P<0.001 for training, test, and overall). The proposed RBRVS-based billing matrix yielded payments that were 3.0%±1.34% less than would have been expected from commercial insurers, using standard rates for commercial ASA relative value units and RBRVS relative value units. Compared with current Medicare reimbursement under the ASA relative value guide, reimbursement would almost double when converting to an RBRVS billing model. The greatest increases in Medicare reimbursement between the current system and proposed billing model occurred as anesthetic management complexity increased. Conclusion The new crosswalk correlates with existing evaluation and management and intensive care medicine codes in an essentially revenue neutral manner when applied to the market-based rates of commercial insurers. The new system more highly values delivery of care to more complex patients undergoing more complex surgery and better represents the true value of anesthetic case management. PMID:25336964

  14. The Unfolding of Value Sources During Online Business Model Transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadja Hoßbach

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In the magazine publishing industry, viable online business models are still rare to absent. To prepare for the ‘digital future’ and safeguard their long-term survival, many publishers are currently in the process of transforming their online business model. Against this backdrop, this study aims to develop a deeper understanding of (1 how the different building blocks of an online business model are transformed over time and (2 how sources of value creation unfold during this transformation process. Methodology: To answer our research question, we conducted a longitudinal case study with a leading German business magazine publisher (called BIZ. Data was triangulated from multiple sources including interviews, internal documents, and direct observations. Findings: Based on our case study, we nd that BIZ used the transformation process to differentiate its online business model from its traditional print business model along several dimensions, and that BIZ’s online business model changed from an efficiency- to a complementarity- to a novelty-based model during this process. Research implications: Our findings suggest that different business model transformation phases relate to different value sources, questioning the appropriateness of value source-based approaches for classifying business models. Practical implications: The results of our case study highlight the need for online-offline business model differentiation and point to the important distinction between service and product differentiation. Originality: Our study contributes to the business model literature by applying a dynamic and holistic perspective on the link between online business model changes and unfolding value sources.

  15. Finite element modeling to analyze TEER values across silicon nanomembranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khire, Tejas S; Nehilla, Barrett J; Getpreecharsawas, Jirachai; Gracheva, Maria E; Waugh, Richard E; McGrath, James L

    2018-01-05

    Silicon nanomembranes are ultrathin, highly permeable, optically transparent and biocompatible substrates for the construction of barrier tissue models. Trans-epithelial/endothelial electrical resistance (TEER) is often used as a non-invasive, sensitive and quantitative technique to assess barrier function. The current study characterizes the electrical behavior of devices featuring silicon nanomembranes to facilitate their application in TEER studies. In conventional practice with commercial systems, raw resistance values are multiplied by the area of the membrane supporting cell growth to normalize TEER measurements. We demonstrate that under most circumstances, this multiplication does not 'normalize' TEER values as is assumed, and that the assumption is worse if applied to nanomembrane chips with a limited active area. To compare the TEER values from nanomembrane devices to those obtained from conventional polymer track-etched (TE) membranes, we develop finite element models (FEM) of the electrical behavior of the two membrane systems. Using FEM and parallel cell-culture experiments on both types of membranes, we successfully model the evolution of resistance values during the growth of endothelial monolayers. Further, by exploring the relationship between the models we develop a 'correction' function, which when applied to nanomembrane TEER, maps to experiments on conventional TE membranes. In summary, our work advances the the utility of silicon nanomembranes as substrates for barrier tissue models by developing an interpretation of TEER values compatible with conventional systems.

  16. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  17. Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2010-01-28

    We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

  18. The reproductive value in distributed optimal control models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzaczek, Stefan; Kuhn, Michael; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

    2010-05-01

    We show that in a large class of distributed optimal control models (DOCM), where population is described by a McKendrick type equation with an endogenous number of newborns, the reproductive value of Fisher shows up as part of the shadow price of the population. Depending on the objective function, the reproductive value may be negative. Moreover, we show results of the reproductive value for changing vital rates. To motivate and demonstrate the general framework, we provide examples in health economics, epidemiology, and population biology.

  19. A Continuous-Time Model for Valuing Foreign Exchange Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Kung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the traditional Garman-Kohlhagen FX option model, which assumes constant spot rates, values incorrectly calls and puts for different values of the ratio of exchange rate to exercise price. Specifically, it undervalues calls when the ratio is between 0.70 and 1.08, and it overvalues calls when the ratio is between 1.18 and 1.30, whereas it overvalues puts when the ratio is between 0.70 and 0.82, and it undervalues puts when the ratio is between 0.86 and 1.30.

  20. Value increasing business model for e-hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, Robert; Wei, June

    2009-01-01

    This paper developed a business value increasing model for electronic hospital (e-hospital) based on electronic value chain analysis. From this model, 58 hospital electronic business (e-business) solutions were developed. Additionally, this paper investigated the adoption patterns of these 58 e-business solutions within six US leading hospitals. The findings show that only 36 of 58 or 62% of the e-business solutions are fully or partially implemented within the six hospitals. Ultimately, the research results will be beneficial to managers and executives for accelerating e-business adoptions for e-hospital.

  1. Modeling the value of strategic actions in the superior colliculus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhushan Thevarajah

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In learning models of strategic game play, an agent constructs a valuation (action value over possible future choices as a function of past actions and rewards. Choices are then stochastic functions of these action values. Our goal is to uncover a neural signal that correlates with the action value posited by behavioral learning models. We measured activity from neurons in the superior colliculus (SC, a midbrain region involved in planning saccadic eye movements, in monkeys while they performed two saccade tasks. In the strategic task, monkeys competed against a computer in a saccade version of the mixed-strategy game “matching-pennies”. In the instructed task, stochastic saccades were elicited through explicit instruction rather than free choices. In both tasks, neuronal activity and behavior were shaped by past actions and rewards with more recent events exerting a larger influence. Further, SC activity predicted upcoming choices during the strategic task and upcoming reaction times during the instructed task. Finally, we found that neuronal activity in both tasks correlated with an established learning model, the Experience Weighted Attraction model of action valuation (Ho, Camerer, and Chong, 2007. Collectively, our results provide evidence that action values hypothesized by learning models are represented in the motor planning regions of the brain in a manner that could be used to select strategic actions.

  2. Advanced empirical estimate of information value for credit scoring models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Řezáč

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring, it is a term for a wide spectrum of predictive models and their underlying techniques that aid financial institutions in granting credits. These methods decide who will get credit, how much credit they should get, and what further strategies will enhance the profitability of the borrowers to the lenders. Many statistical tools are avaiable for measuring quality, within the meaning of the predictive power, of credit scoring models. Because it is impossible to use a scoring model effectively without knowing how good it is, quality indexes like Gini, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statisic and Information value are used to assess quality of given credit scoring model. The paper deals primarily with the Information value, sometimes called divergency. Commonly it is computed by discretisation of data into bins using deciles. One constraint is required to be met in this case. Number of cases have to be nonzero for all bins. If this constraint is not fulfilled there are some practical procedures for preserving finite results. As an alternative method to the empirical estimates one can use the kernel smoothing theory, which allows to estimate unknown densities and consequently, using some numerical method for integration, to estimate value of the Information value. The main contribution of this paper is a proposal and description of the empirical estimate with supervised interval selection. This advanced estimate is based on requirement to have at least k, where k is a positive integer, observations of socres of both good and bad client in each considered interval. A simulation study shows that this estimate outperform both the empirical estimate using deciles and the kernel estimate. Furthermore it shows high dependency on choice of the parameter k. If we choose too small value, we get overestimated value of the Information value, and vice versa. Adjusted square root of number of bad clients seems to be a reasonable compromise.

  3. Mean Value Engine Modelling of an SI Engine with EGR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Føns, Michael; Müller, Martin; Chevalier, Alain

    1999-01-01

    Mean Value Engine Models (MVEMs) are simplified, dynamic engine models what are physically based. Such models are useful for control studies, for engine control system analysis and for model based engine control systems. Very few published MVEMs have included the effects of Exhaust Gas...... Recirculation (EGR). The purpose of this paper is to present a modified MVEM which includes EGR in a physical way. It has been tested using newly developed, very fast manifold pressure, manifold temperature, port and EGR mass flow sensors. Reasonable agreement has been obtained on an experimental engine...

  4. Can Participatory Action Research Create Value for Business Model Innovation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sparre, Mogens; Rasmussen, Ole Horn; Fast, Alf Michael

    Abstract: Participatory Action Research (PAR) has a longer academic history compared with the idea of business models (BMs). This paper indicates how industries gain by using the combined methodology. The research question "Can participatory action research create value for Business Model...... Innovation (BMI)?” – has been investigated from five different perspectives based upon The Business Model Cube and The Where to Look Model. Using both established and newly developed tools the paper presents how. Theory and data from two cases are presented and it is demonstrated how industry increase...... their monetary and/or non-monetary value creation doing BMI based upon PAR. The process is essential and using the methodology of PAR creates meaning. Behind the process, the RAR methodology and its link to BM and BMI may contribute to theory construction and creation of a common language in academia around...

  5. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. A model for measuring value for money in professional sports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad ROŞCA

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Few to almost none sports teams measure the entertainment value they provide to fans in exchange of the money the latter ones spend on admission fees. Scientific literature oversees the issue as well. The aim of this paper is to present a model that can be used for calculating value for money in the context of spectating sports. The research question asks how can value for money be conceptualized and measured for sports marketing purposes? Using financial and sporting variables, the method calculates how much money, on average, a fan had to spend for receiving quality entertainment – defined as won matches – from his favorite team, during the last season of the Romanian first division football championship. The results only partially confirm the research hypothesis, showing that not just price and sporting performances may influence the value delivered to fans, but other factors as well.

  7. A matrix model for valuing anesthesia service with the resource-based relative value system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinclair DR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available David R Sinclair,1 David A Lubarsky,1 Michael M Vigoda,1 David J Birnbach,1 Eric A Harris,1 Vicente Behrens,1 Richard E Bazan,1 Steve M Williams,1 Kristopher Arheart,2 Keith A Candiotti1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative Medicine and Pain Management, 2Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Biostatistics, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA Background: The purpose of this study was to propose a new crosswalk using the resource-based relative value system (RBRVS that preserves the time unit component of the anesthesia service and disaggregates anesthesia billing into component parts (preoperative evaluation, intraoperative management, and postoperative evaluation. The study was designed as an observational chart and billing data review of current and proposed payments, in the setting of a preoperative holing area, intraoperative suite, and post anesthesia care unit. In total, 1,195 charts of American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA physical status 1 through 5 patients were reviewed. No direct patient interventions were undertaken. Results: Spearman correlations between the proposed RBRVS billing matrix payments and the current ASA relative value guide methodology payments were strong (r=0.94–0.96, P<0.001 for training, test, and overall. The proposed RBRVS-based billing matrix yielded payments that were 3.0%±1.34% less than would have been expected from commercial insurers, using standard rates for commercial ASA relative value units and RBRVS relative value units. Compared with current Medicare reimbursement under the ASA relative value guide, reimbursement would almost double when converting to an RBRVS billing model. The greatest increases in Medicare reimbursement between the current system and proposed billing model occurred as anesthetic management complexity increased. Conclusion: The new crosswalk correlates with existing evaluation and management and intensive care medicine codes in an

  8. IT Business Value Model for Information Intensive Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Carlos Gastaud Maçada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have highlighted the capacity Information Technology (IT has for generating value for organizations. Investments in IT made by organizations have increased each year. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the IT Business Value for Information Intensive Organizations (IIO - e.g. banks, insurance companies and securities brokers. The research method consisted of a survey that used and combined the models from Weill and Broadbent (1998 and Gregor, Martin, Fernandez, Stern and Vitale (2006. Data was gathered using an adapted instrument containing 5 dimensions (Strategic, Informational, Transactional, Transformational and Infra-structure with 27 items. The instrument was refined by employing statistical techniques such as Exploratory and Confirmatory Factorial Analysis through Structural Equations (first and second order Model Measurement. The final model is composed of four factors related to IT Business Value: Strategic, Informational, Transactional and Transformational, arranged in 15 items. The dimension Infra-structure was excluded during the model refinement process because it was discovered during interviews that managers were unable to perceive it as a distinct dimension of IT Business Value.

  9. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  10. International Business Models Developed Through Brokerage Knowledge and Value Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Nicolaj Hannesbo; Rasmussen, Erik Stavnsager

    This paper highlights theoretically and empirically international business model decisions in networks with knowledge sharing and value creation. The paper expands the conceptual in-ternational business model framework for technology-oriented companies to include the focal firm’s network role...... and strategic fit in a global embeddedness. The brokerage role in the in-ternationalization of a network is discussed from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. From a business model and social network analysis perspective, this paper will show how firms and network grow internationally through two...

  11. Cultivating a disease management partnership: a value-chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Carolyn F; Monroe, Wendy; Stalder, Sharon A

    2003-01-01

    Disease management (DM) is one of the health care industry's more innovative value-chain models, whereby multiple relationships are created to bring complex and time-sensitive services to market. The very nature of comprehensive, seamless DM provided through an outsourced arrangement necessitates a level of cooperation, trust, and synergy that may be lacking from more traditional vendor-customer relationships. This discussion highlights the experience of one health plan and its vendor partner and their approach to the development and delivery of an outsourced heart failure (HF) DM program. The program design and rollout are discussed within principles adapted from the theoretical framework of a value-chain model. Within the value-chain model, added value is created by the convergence and synergistic integration of the partners' discrete strengths. Although each partner brings unique attributes to the relationship, those attributes are significantly enhanced by the value-chain model, thus allowing each party to bring the added value of the relationship to their respective customers. This partnership increases innovation, leverages critical capabilities, and improves market responsiveness. Implementing a comprehensive, outsourced DM program is no small task. DM programs incorporate a broad array of services affecting nearly every department in a health plan's organization. When true seamless integration between multiple organizations with multiple stakeholders is the objective, implementation and ongoing operations can become even more complex. To effectively address the complexities presented by an HF DM program, the parties in this case moved beyond a typical purchaser-vendor relationship to one that is more closely akin to a strategic partnership. This discussion highlights the development of this partnership from the perspective of both organizations, as revealed through contracting and implementation activities. It is intended to provide insight into the program

  12. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

    2012-01-01

    The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... rate is known possibly along with other reliability measures, precise or imprecise. The Lagrange method is used to solve the constrained optimization problem to derive new reliability measures of interest. The obtained results call for an exponential-wise approximation of failure probability density...... function if only partial failure information is available. An example is provided. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC....

  14. [Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) values in Chilean elderly subjects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmendia, María Luisa; Lera, Lydia; Sánchez, Hugo; Uauy, Ricardo; Albala, Cecilia

    2009-11-01

    The homeostasis assessment model for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) estimates insulin resistance using basal insulin and glucose values and has a good concordance with values obtained with the euglycemic clamp. However it has a high variability that depends on environmental, genetic and physiologic factors. Therefore it is imperative to establish normal HOMA values in different populations. To report HOMA-IR values in Chilean elderly subjects and to determine the best cutoff point to diagnose insulin resistance. Cross sectional study of 1003 subjects older than 60 years of whom 803 (71% women) did not have diabetes. In 154 subjects, an oral glucose tolerance test was also performed. Insulin resistance (IR) was defined as the HOMA value corresponding to percentile 75 of subjects without over or underweight. The behavior of HOMA-IR in metabolic syndrome was studied and receiver operating curves (ROC) were calculated, using glucose intolerance defined as a blood glucose over 140 mg/dl and hyperinsulinemia, defined as a serum insulin over 60 microU/ml, two hours after the glucose load. Median HOMA-IR values were 1.7. Percentile 75 in subjects without obesity or underweight was 2.57. The area under the ROC curve, when comparing HOMA-IR with glucose intolerance and hyperinsulinemia, was 0.8 (95% confidence values 0.72-0.87), with HOMA-IR values ranging from 2.04 to 2.33. HOMA-IR is a useful method to determine insulin resistance in epidemiological studies. The HOMA-IR cutoff point for insulin resistance defined in thi spopulation was 2.6.

  15. Dissemination of Cultural Norms and Values: Agent-Based Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Andreevich Degterev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article shows how agent-based modeling allows us to explore the mechanisms of the dissemination of cultural norms and values both within one country and in the whole world. In recent years, this type of simulation is particularly prevalent in the analysis of international relations, becoming more popular than the system dynamics and discrete event simulation. The use of agent-based modeling in the analysis of international relations is connected with the agent-structure problem in international relations. Structure and agents act as interdependent and dynamically changing in the process of interaction between entities. Agent-structure interaction could be modeled by means of the theory of complex adaptive systems with the use of agent-based modeling techniques. One of the first examples of the use of agent-based modeling in political science is a model of racial segregation T. Shellinga. On the basis of this model, the author shows how the change in behavioral patterns at micro-level impacts on the macro-level. Patterns are changing due to the dynamics of cultural norms and values, formed by mass-media and other social institutes. The author shows the main areas of modern application of agent-based modeling in international studies including the analysis of ethnic conflicts, the formation of international coalitions. Particular attention is paid to Robert Axelrod approach based on the use of genetic algorithms to the spread of cultural norms and values. Agent-based modeling shows how to how to create such conditions that the norms that originally are not shared by a significant part of the population, eventually spread everywhere. Practical application of these algorithms is shown by the author of the article on the example of the situation in Ukraine in 2015-2016. The article also reveals the mechanisms of international spread of cultural norms and values. The main think-tanks using agent-based modeling in international studies are

  16. Requirements for Logical Models for Value-Added Tax Legislation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ib; Simonsen, Jakob Grue; Larsen, Ken Friis

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems are ubiquitous in commercial enterprises of all sizes and invariably need to account for the notion of value-added tax (VAT). The legal and technical difficulties in handling VAT are exacerbated by spanning a broad and chaotic spectrum of intricate country...... of the Danish VAT law in Web Ontology Language (OWL) and in Con¿git Product Modeling Language (CPML)....

  17. The Deficit Model and the Forgotten Moral Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Ahteensuu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper was presented at the first meeting of the NSU study group “Conceptions of ethical and social values in post-secular society: Towards a new ethical imagination in a cosmopolitan world society”, held on January 28-30, 2011 at Copenhagen Business School. The deficit model explains the general public’s negative attitudes towards science and/or certain scientific applications with the public’s scientific ignorance. The deficit model is commonly criticized for oversimplifying the connection between scientific knowledge and attitudes. Other relevant factors – such as ideology, social identity, trust, culture, and worldviews – should be taken into consideration to a greater extent. We argue that explanations based on the proposed factors sometimes implicitly reintroduce the deficit model type of thinking. The strength of the factors is that they broaden the explanations to concern moral issues. We analyse two central argument types of GMO discussion, and show the central role of moral values in them. Thus, as long as arguments are seen to affect the attitudes of the general public, the role of moral values should be made explicit in the explanations concerning their attitudes.

  18. AskIT Service Desk Support Value Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashcraft, Phillip Lynn [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Cummings, Susan M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Fogle, Blythe G. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Valdez, Christopher D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-07

    The value model discussed herein provides an accurate and simple calculation of the funding required to adequately staff the AskIT Service Desk (SD).  The model is incremental – only technical labor cost is considered.  All other costs, such as management, equipment, buildings, HVAC, and training are considered common elements of providing any labor related IT Service. Depending on the amount of productivity loss and the number of hours the defect was unresolved, the value of resolving work from the SD is unquestionably an economic winner; the average cost of $16 per SD resolution can commonly translate to cost avoidance exceeding well over $100. Attempting to extract too much from the SD will likely create a significant downside. The analysis used to develop the value model indicates that the utilization of the SD is very high (approximately 90%).  As a benchmark, consider a comment from a manager at Vitalyst (a commercial IT service desk) that their utilization target is approximately 60%.  While high SD utilization is impressive, over the long term it is likely to cause unwanted consequences to staff such as higher turnover, illness, or burnout.  A better solution is to staff the SD so that analysts have time to improve skills through training, develop knowledge, improve processes, collaborate with peers, and improve customer relationship skills.

  19. Conceptual Model of Quantities, Units, Dimensions, and Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouquette, Nicolas F.; DeKoenig, Hans-Peter; Burkhart, Roger; Espinoza, Huascar

    2011-01-01

    JPL collaborated with experts from industry and other organizations to develop a conceptual model of quantities, units, dimensions, and values based on the current work of the ISO 80000 committee revising the International System of Units & Quantities based on the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). By providing support for ISO 80000 in SysML via the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM), this conceptual model provides, for the first time, a standard-based approach for addressing issues of unit coherence and dimensional analysis into the practice of systems engineering with SysML-based tools. This conceptual model provides support for two kinds of analyses specified in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM): coherence of units as well as of systems of units, and dimension analysis of systems of quantities. To provide a solid and stable foundation, the model for defining quantities, units, dimensions, and values in SysML is explicitly based on the concepts defined in VIM. At the same time, the model library is designed in such a way that extensions to the ISQ (International System of Quantities) and SI Units (Systeme International d Unites) can be represented, as well as any alternative systems of quantities and units. The model library can be used to support SysML user models in various ways. A simple approach is to define and document libraries of reusable systems of units and quantities for reuse across multiple projects, and to link units and quantity kinds from these libraries to Unit and QuantityKind stereotypes defined in SysML user models.

  20. Confirming the Value of Swimming-Performance Models for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormehl, Shilo J; Robertson, Samuel J; Barker, Alan R; Williams, Craig A

    2017-10-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of existing performance models to assess the progression of male and female adolescent swimmers through a quantitative and qualitative mixed-methods approach. Fourteen published models were tested using retrospective data from an independent sample of Dutch junior national-level swimmers from when they were 12-18 y of age (n = 13). The degree of association by Pearson correlations was compared between the calculated differences from the models and quadratic functions derived from the Dutch junior national qualifying times. Swimmers were grouped based on their differences from the models and compared with their swimming histories that were extracted from questionnaires and follow-up interviews. Correlations of the deviations from both the models and quadratic functions derived from the Dutch qualifying times were all significant except for the 100-m breaststroke and butterfly and the 200-m freestyle for females (P backstroke for males and 200-m freestyle for males and females were almost directly proportional. In general, deviations from the models were accounted for by the swimmers' training histories. Higher levels of retrospective motivation appeared to be synonymous with higher-level career performance. This mixed-methods approach helped confirm the validity of the models that were found to be applicable to adolescent swimmers at all levels, allowing coaches to track performance and set goals. The value of the models in being able to account for the expected performance gains during adolescence enables quantification of peripheral factors that could affect performance.

  1. Value stream mapping in a computational simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Becker Mendes de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The decision-making process has been extensively studied by researchers and executives. This paper aims to use the methodology of Value Stream Mapping (VSM in an integrated manner with a computer simulation model, in order to expand managers decision-making vision. The object of study is based on a production system that involves a process of automatic packaging of products, where it became necessary to implement changes in order to accommodate new products, so that the detection of bottlenecks and the visualization of impacts generated by future modifications are necessary. The simulation aims to support manager’s decision considering that the system involves several variables and their behaviors define the complexity of the process. Significant reduction in project costs by anticipating their behavior, together with the results of the Value Stream Mapping to identify activities that add value or not for the process were the main results. The validation of the simulation model will occur with the current map of the system and with the inclusion of Kaizen events so that waste in future maps are found in a practical and reliable way, which could support decision-makings.

  2. Genomic value prediction for quantitative traits under the epistatic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Shizhong

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most quantitative traits are controlled by multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL. The contribution of each locus may be negligible but the collective contribution of all loci is usually significant. Genome selection that uses markers of the entire genome to predict the genomic values of individual plants or animals can be more efficient than selection on phenotypic values and pedigree information alone for genetic improvement. When a quantitative trait is contributed by epistatic effects, using all markers (main effects and marker pairs (epistatic effects to predict the genomic values of plants can achieve the maximum efficiency for genetic improvement. Results In this study, we created 126 recombinant inbred lines of soybean and genotyped 80 makers across the genome. We applied the genome selection technique to predict the genomic value of somatic embryo number (a quantitative trait for each line. Cross validation analysis showed that the squared correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted embryo numbers was 0.33 when only main (additive effects were used for prediction. When the interaction (epistatic effects were also included in the model, the squared correlation coefficient reached 0.78. Conclusions This study provided an excellent example for the application of genome selection to plant breeding.

  3. A model-based approach for sustainability and value assessment in the aerospace value chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Bertoni

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the aerospace industry, systems engineering practices have been exercised for years, as a way to turn high-level design objectives into concrete targets on system functionality (e.g. range, noise, and reliability. More difficult is to decompose and clarify sustainability implications in the same way and to compare them against performance-related capabilities already during preliminary design. This article addresses the problem of bringing the important—yet typically high level and complex—sustainability aspects into engineering practices. It proposes a novel integrated model-based method that provides a consistent way of addressing the well-known lack of generic and integrated ways of clarifying both cost and value consequences of sustainability in early phases. It further presents the development and implementation of such approach in two separate case studies conducted in collaboration with a major aero-engine sub-system manufacturer. The first case concerns the assessment of alternative business configurations to maintain scarce materials in closed loops, while the second one concerns the production technology of an aero-engine component. Eventually, this article highlights the learning generated by the development and implementation of these approaches and discusses opportunities for further development of model-based support.

  4. 40 CFR 600.207-93 - Calculation of fuel economy values for a model type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Values § 600.207-93 Calculation of fuel economy values for a model type. (a) Fuel economy values for a... update sales projections at the time any model type value is calculated for a label value. (iii) The... those intended for sale in other states, he will calculate fuel economy values for each model type for...

  5. 40 CFR 600.207-86 - Calculation of fuel economy values for a model type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Values § 600.207-86 Calculation of fuel economy values for a model type. (a) Fuel economy values for a... update sales projections at the time any model type value is calculated for a label value. (iii) The... the projected sales and fuel economy values for each base level within the model type. (1) If the...

  6. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  7. Modeling Value Chain Analysis of Distance Education using UML

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anal; Mukherjee, Soumen

    2010-10-01

    Distance education continues to grow as a methodology for the delivery of course content in higher education in India as well as abroad. To manage this growing demand and to provide certain flexibility, there must be certain strategic planning about the use of ICT tools. Value chain analysis is a framework for breaking down the sequence of business functions into a set of activities through which utility could be added to service. Thus it can help to determine the competitive advantage that is enjoyed by an institute. To implement these business functions certain visual representation is required. UML allows for this representation by using a set of structural and behavioral diagrams. In this paper, the first section defines a framework for value chain analysis and highlights its advantages. The second section gives a brief overview of related work in this field. The third section gives a brief discussion on distance education. The fourth section very briefly introduces UML. The fifth section models value chain of distance education using UML. Finally we discuss the limitations and the problems posed in this domain.

  8. RETHINKING VALUE: A VALUE-CENTRIC MODEL OF PRODUCT, SERVICE AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randmaa, Merili; Mougaard, Krestine; Howard, Thomas J.

    2011-01-01

    -thinking customer value within the value system. This article shows how the term “value” is understood in different contexts and fields of economy, to see if these definitions can be merged, in order to understand the concept of value in broader way. The authors argue through literature review and example cases......Globalization and information technologies have made the economical landscape more transparent and customers smarter, more demanding and networked. Companies can see these changes as a threat to their business or as an opportunity to differentiate in the market and be a Prime Mover, by re...... that seeing value from multi-disciplinary viewpoint opens up some unused opportunities for the companies to overcome barriers within a value system, design integrated products and services, work more effectively, co-create value with customers, make use of word-of-mouth promotion and achieve long...

  9. On the added value of WUDAPT for Urban Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousse, Oscar; Martilli, Alberto; Mills, Gerald; Bechtel, Benjamin; Hammerberg, Kris; Demuzere, Matthias; Wouters, Hendrik; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Ren, Chao; Feddema, Johannes J.; Masson, Valéry; Ching, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Over half of the planet's population now live in cities and is expected to grow up to 65% by 2050 (United Nations, 2014), most of whom will actually occupy new emerging cities of the global South. Cities' impact on climate is known to be a key driver of environmental change (IPCC, 2014) and has been studied for decades now (Howard, 1875). Still very little is known about our cities' structure around the world, preventing urban climate simulations to be done and hence guidance to be provided for mitigation. Assessing the need to bridge the urban knowledge gap for urban climate modelling perspectives, the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool - WUDAPT - project (Ching et al., 2015; Mills et al., 2015) developed an innovative technique to map cities globally rapidly and freely. The framework established by Bechtel and Daneke (2012) derives Local Climate Zones (Stewart and Oke, 2012) city maps out of LANDSAT 8 OLI-TIRS imagery (Bechtel et al., 2015) through a supervised classification by a Random Forest Classification algorithm (Breiman, 2001). The first attempt to implement Local Climate Zones (LCZ) out of the WUDAPT product within a major climate model was carried out by Brousse et al. (2016) over Madrid, Spain. This study proved the applicability of LCZs as an enhanced urban parameterization within the WRF model (Chen et al. 2011) employing the urban canopy model BEP-BEM (Martilli, 2002; Salamanca et al., 2010), using the averaged values of the morphological and physical parameters' ranges proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012). Other studies have now used the Local Climate Zones for urban climate modelling purposes (Alexander et al., 2016; Wouters et al. 2016; Hammerberg et al., 2017; Brousse et al., 2017) and demonstrated the added value of the WUDAPT dataset. As urban data accessibility is one of the major challenge for simulations in emerging countries, this presentation will show results of simulations using LCZs and the capacity of the WUDAPT framework to be

  10. Value Creation in the Cloud: Understanding Business Model Factors Affecting Value of Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Morgan, Lorraine; Conboy, Kieran

    2013-01-01

    peer-reviewed Despite the rapid emergence of cloud technology, its prevalence and accessibility to all types of organizations and its potential to predominantly shift competitive landscapes by providing a new platform for creating and delivering business value, empirical research on the business value of cloud computing, and in particular how service providers create value for their customers, is quite limited. Of what little research exists to date, most focuses on technical issu...

  11. Extreme value modelling of storm damage in Swedish forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bengtsson

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Forests cover about 56% of the land area in Sweden and forest damage due to strong winds has been a recurring problem. In this paper we analyse recorded storm damage in Swedish forests for the years 1965–2007. During the period 48 individual storm events with a total damage of 164 Mm³ have been reported with the severe storm on 8 to 9 January 2005, as the worst with 70 Mm³ damaged forest. For the analysis, storm damage data has been normalised to account for the increase in total forest volume over the period.

    We show that, within the framework of statistical extreme value theory, a Poisson point process model can be used to describe these storm damage events. Damage data supports a heavy-tailed distribution with great variability in damage for the worst storm events. According to the model, and in view of available data, the return period for a storm with damage in size of the severe storm of January 2005 is approximately 80 years, i.e. a storm with damage of this magnitude will happen, on average, once every eighty years.

    To investigate a possible temporal trend, models with time-dependent parameters have been analysed but give no conclusive evidence of an increasing trend in the normalised storm damage data for the period. Using a non-parametric approach with a kernel based local-likelihood method gives the same result.

  12. ASSETS MANAGEMENT - A CONCEPTUAL MODEL DECOMPOSING VALUE FOR THE CUSTOMER AND A QUANTITATIVE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Nicola

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe de application of a modeling framework, the so-called Conceptual Model Decomposing Value for the Customer (CMDVC, in a Footwear Industry case study, to ascertain the usefulness of this approach. The value networks were used to identify the participants, both tangible and intangible deliverables/endogenous and exogenous assets, and the analysis of their interactions as the indication for an adequate value proposition. The quantitative model of benefits and sacrifices, using the Fuzzy AHP method, enables the discussion of how the CMDVC can be applied and used in the enterprise environment and provided new relevant relations between perceived benefits (PBs.

  13. Modeling Source Water Threshold Exceedances with Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, B.; Samson, C.; Summers, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Variability in surface water quality, influenced by seasonal and long-term climate changes, can impact drinking water quality and treatment. In particular, temperature and precipitation can impact surface water quality directly or through their influence on streamflow and dilution capacity. Furthermore, they also impact land surface factors, such as soil moisture and vegetation, which can in turn affect surface water quality, in particular, levels of organic matter in surface waters which are of concern. All of these will be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. While some source water quality parameters, particularly Total Organic Carbon (TOC) and bromide concentrations, are not directly regulated for drinking water, these parameters are precursors to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs), which are regulated in drinking water distribution systems. These DBPs form when a disinfectant, added to the water to protect public health against microbial pathogens, most commonly chlorine, reacts with dissolved organic matter (DOM), measured as TOC or dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and inorganic precursor materials, such as bromide. Therefore, understanding and modeling the extremes of TOC and Bromide concentrations is of critical interest for drinking water utilities. In this study we develop nonstationary extreme value analysis models for threshold exceedances of source water quality parameters, specifically TOC and bromide concentrations. In this, the threshold exceedances are modeled as Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) whose parameters vary as a function of climate and land surface variables - thus, enabling to capture the temporal nonstationarity. We apply these to model threshold exceedance of source water TOC and bromide concentrations at two locations with different climate and find very good performance.

  14. RETHINKING VALUE: A VALUE-CENTRIC MODEL OF PRODUCT, SERVICE AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randmaa, Merili; Mougaard, Krestine; Howard, Thomas J.

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and information technologies have made the economical landscape more transparent and customers smarter, more demanding and networked. Companies can see these changes as a threat to their business or as an opportunity to differentiate in the market and be a Prime Mover, by re...... that seeing value from multi-disciplinary viewpoint opens up some unused opportunities for the companies to overcome barriers within a value system, design integrated products and services, work more effectively, co-create value with customers, make use of word-of-mouth promotion and achieve long...

  15. A Review of the Wood Pellet Value Chain, Modern Value/Supply Chain Management Approaches, and Value/Supply Chain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie M. Hughes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found that information on supply chain management and modeling techniques in general is available. However, few Canadian-based published studies exist regarding a demand-driven modeling approach to value/supply chain management for wood pellet production. Only three papers were found specifically on wood pellet value chain analysis. We propose that more studies should be carried out on the value chain of wood pellet manufacturing, as well as demand-driven management and modeling approaches with improved demand forecasting methods.

  16. Environment modeling using runtime values for JPF-Android

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van der Merwe, H

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available is used to find input parameters for drivers and return values for library stubs, but it struggles to detect the values of complex objects. In this work-in-progress paper, we explore an approach to generate drivers and stubs based on values collected...

  17. Counseling Psychology Model Training Values Statement Addressing Diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counseling Psychologist, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Respect for diversity and for values different from one's own is a central value of counseling psychology training programs. The valuing of diversity is also consistent with the profession of psychology as mandated by the American Psychological Association's (APA's) Ethical Principles and Code of Conduct and as discussed in the Guidelines and…

  18. Using simple causal modeling to understand how water and temperature affect daily stem radial variation in trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deslauriers, Annie; Anfodillo, Tommaso; Rossi, Sergio; Carraro, Vinicio

    2007-08-01

    Variation in tree stem diameter results from reversible shrinking and swelling and irreversible radial growth, all processes that are influenced by tree water status. To assess the causal effects of water and temperature on stem radial variation (DeltaR) and maximum daily shrinkage (MDS), the diurnal cycle was divided into three phases: contraction, expansion and stem radius increment. Diurnal cycles were measured during 1996-2004 in Picea abies (L.) Karst., Pinus cembra L. and Larix decidua Mill. in a timberline ecotone to understand the links between stem diameter variation (v; defined as MDS or DR), phase duration (h), and weather or sap flow descriptors (d). We demonstrated that a high proportion of MDS and DeltaR was explained by h because of the nonlinearity of the physiological responses to weather d. By causal modeling, we tested whether the relationship between d and v was due to h (lack of causal relationship between d and v) or to both d and h (double cause). The results of this modeling added new physiological insight into daily growth-climate relationships. Negative correlations were found between DeltaR and air temperature owing to the negative effect of temperature on h only, and did not correspond to a direct effect on tree growth mediated by an alteration in metabolic activities. Precipitation had two main effects: a direct effect on DeltaR and an indirect effect mediated through an effect on h. A reduction in sap flow at night led to an increase in DeltaR for P. abies and L. decidua, but not for P. cembra.

  19. Understanding Business Strategies of Networked Value Constellations Using Goal- and Value Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gordijn, Jaap; Petit, Michael; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2006-01-01

    In goal-oriented requirements engineering (GORE), one usually proceeds from a goal analysis to a requirements specification, usually of IT systems. In contrast, we consider the use of GORE for the design of IT-enabled value constellations, which are collections of enterprises that jointly satisfy a

  20. E-governmental value chain models : E-government from a business (modelling) perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, Arjen

    2000-01-01

    The paper considers electronic governmental activities from a business perspective, resulting in a so-called governmental value chain model. This model aims to support practitioners for better understanding and realisation of joint organisational and information system innovations in the public

  1. Mathematical Modeling Activities as a Useful Tool for Values Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doruk, Bekir Kursat

    2012-01-01

    Values education is crucial since it is one of the factors to reach success in education in broader sense and in mathematics education in particular sense. It is also important for educating next generations of societies. However, previous research showed that expected importance for values education was not given in Mathematics courses. In a few…

  2. Improved gap conductance model for the TRAC code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatch, S.W.; Mandell, D.A.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of the present work, as indicated earlier, is to improve the present constant fuel clad spacing in TRAC-P1A without significantly increasing the computer costs. It is realized that the simple model proposed may not be accurate enough for some cases, but for the initial calculations made the DELTAR model improves the predictions over the constant Δr results of TRAC-P1A and the additional computing costs are negligible

  3. Computational Techniques for Model Predictive Control of Large-Scale Systems with Continuous-Valued and Discrete-Valued Inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koichi Kobayashi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose computational techniques for model predictive control of large-scale systems with both continuous-valued control inputs and discrete-valued control inputs, which are a class of hybrid systems. In the proposed method, we introduce the notion of virtual control inputs, which are obtained by relaxing discrete-valued control inputs to continuous variables. In online computation, first, we find continuous-valued control inputs and virtual control inputs minimizing a cost function. Next, using the obtained virtual control inputs, only discrete-valued control inputs at the current time are computed in each subsystem. In addition, we also discuss the effect of quantization errors. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by a numerical example. The proposed method enables us to reduce and decentralize the computation load.

  4. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  5. Conceptual Model of Business Value of Business Intelligence Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Popovič, Aleš; Turk, Tomaž; Jaklič, Jurij

    2010-01-01

    With advances in the business intelligence area, there is an increasing interest for the introduction of business intelligence systems into organizations. Although the opinion about business intelligence and its creation of business value is generally accepted, economic justification of investments into business intelligence systems is not always clear. Measuring the business value of business intelligence in practice is often not carried out due to the lack of measurement methods and resourc...

  6. A Classical Realizability Model for a Semantical Value Restriction

    OpenAIRE

    Lepigre, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    We present a new type system with support for proofs of programs in a call-by-value language with control operators. The proof mechanism relies on observational equivalence of (untyped) programs. It appears in two type constructors, which are used for specifying program properties and for encoding dependent products. The main challenge arises from the lack of expressiveness of dependent products due to the value restriction. To circumvent this limitation we relax the syntactic restriction and...

  7. Changing, priming, and acting on values: Effects via motivational relations in a circular model

    OpenAIRE

    Maio, Gregory R.; Pakizeh, Ali; Cheung, Wing-Yee; Rees, Kerry J.

    2009-01-01

    Circular models of values and goals suggest that some motivational aims are consistent with each other, some oppose each other, and others are orthogonal to each other. The present experiments tested this idea explicitly by examining how value confrontation and priming methods influence values and value-consistent behaviors throughout the entire value system. Experiment 1 revealed that change in 1 set of social values causes motivationally compatible values to increase in importance, whereas ...

  8. Mean Value SI Engine Model for Control Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendricks, Elbert; Sorenson, Spencer C

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematically simple nonlinear three state (three differential equation) dynamic model of an SI engine which has the same steady state accuracy as a typical dynamometer measurement of the engine over its entire speed/load operating range (± 2.0%). The model's accuracy for l....... The model can easily be run on a Personal Computer (PC) using a ordinary differential equation (ODE) integrating routine or package. This makes the model is useful for control system design and evaluation....

  9. Value propositions for business models for nZEB renovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straub, A.; Mlecnik, E.

    2014-01-01

    It is poorly understood what the characteristics are of households who want to engage in nZEB single-family home renovations. This paper addresses the research question: What are customer segments, and what are their customer values and motives to choose for a nZEB renovation of privately-owned

  10. Estimating net present value variability for deterministic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groenendaal, W.J.H.

    1995-01-01

    For decision makers the variability in the net present value (NPV) of an investment project is an indication of the project's risk. So-called risk analysis is one way to estimate this variability. However, risk analysis requires knowledge about the stochastic character of the inputs. For large,

  11. Teaching Time Value of Money Using an Excel Retirement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, Fernando; Mulig, Liz; Rhame, Susan

    2012-01-01

    The time value of money (TVM) is required knowledge for all business students. It is traditionally taught in finance and accounting classes for use in various applications in the business curriculum. These concepts are also very useful in real life situations such as calculating the amount to save for retirement. This paper details a retirement…

  12. Models for measuring and predicting shareholder value: A study of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    With the increasing focus on creation of shareholder value and core competencies, many companies are outsourcing their information technology (IT) related activities to third party software companies. Indian software companies have become leaders in providing these services. Companies from several other countries are ...

  13. Efficient Multi-Valued Bounded Model Checking for LTL over Quasi-Boolean Algebras

    OpenAIRE

    Andrade, Jefferson O.; Kameyama, Yukiyoshi

    2012-01-01

    Multi-valued Model Checking extends classical, two-valued model checking to multi-valued logic such as Quasi-Boolean logic. The added expressivity is useful in dealing with such concepts as incompleteness and uncertainty in target systems, while it comes with the cost of time and space. Chechik and others proposed an efficient reduction from multi-valued model checking problems to two-valued ones, but to the authors' knowledge, no study was done for multi-valued bounded model checking. In thi...

  14. Markov Kernels and the Conditional Extreme Value Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    required to belong to an extremal domain of attraction. Such a model accomodates varying degrees of asymptotic dependence between pairs of components...under which not all the components are required to belong to an extremal domain of attraction. Such a model accomodates varying degrees of asymptotic...not all the components are required to belong to an extremal domain of attraction. Such a model accomodates varying degrees of asymptotic dependence

  15. Wind climate modeling using Weibull and extreme value distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The expected number of stress cycles in the projected working life of a structure is related to the expected number of hours in the critical wind speed range and wind climate modelling is required to know this. The most popular model for this purpose is Weibull distribution. Again, wind energy is proportional to the cube of the ...

  16. The value of structural information in the VAR model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical economic analysis. While the decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, the analyst is interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on the structural features of a model, such as

  17. Business modelling revisited: The configuration of control and value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ballon, P.J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose - This paper aims to provide a theoretically grounded framework for designing and analysing business models for (mobile) information communication technology (ICT) services and systems. Design/methodology/approach - The paper reviews the most topical literature on business modelling, as well

  18. Dealing with missing predictor values when applying clinical prediction models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, K.J.; Vergouwe, Y.; Donders, A.R.T.; Harrell Jr, F.E.; Chen, Q.; Grobbee, D.E.; Moons, K.G.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction models combine patient characteristics and test results to predict the presence of a disease or the occurrence of an event in the future. In the event that test results (predictor) are unavailable, a strategy is needed to help users applying a prediction model to deal with

  19. Evaluating the value chain model for service organisational strategy: International hotels.

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Keetag.

    2000-01-01

    Strategic models like Porter's (1985) value chain have not been fully evaluated in the strategy literature and applied to all industries. To theoretically redefine the value chain technique, this research evaluates the value chain's use with various strategic issues by applying it to a specific aspect in the service field, namely the hotel industry. The study defines five key questions by which to evaluate a strategic model and the value chain model is examined using them. This research is a ...

  20. Value of using remotely sensed evapotranspiration for SWAT model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic models are useful management tools for assessing water resources solutions and estimating the potential impact of climate variation scenarios. A comprehensive understanding of the water budget components and especially the evapotranspiration (ET) is critical and often overlooked for adeq...

  1. Model-Checking of Linear-Time Properties in Multi-Valued Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yongming; Droste, Manfred; Lei, Lihui

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we study model-checking of linear-time properties in multi-valued systems. Safety property, invariant property, liveness property, persistence and dual-persistence properties in multi-valued logic systems are introduced. Some algorithms related to the above multi-valued linear-time properties are discussed. The verification of multi-valued regular safety properties and multi-valued $\\omega$-regular properties using lattice-valued automata are thoroughly studied. Since the law o...

  2. Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

    2017-11-01

    The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

  3. MODEL PENENTUAN HARGA SAHAM: PENGUJIAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL MELALUI PENGUJIAN ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suripto Suripto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research tested the influence of characteristics of the firms and of EVA (Eco-nomic Value Added to stock of returns. This Research sample was company Self-100 ValueCreator of year 2001 until 2006. Result of research indicated that company size measure,profitability, capital structure (characteristics of the firms and EVA by stimulant had aneffect on significant to stock of returns, but by partial only characteristics company. Condi-tion of company fundamentals had an effect on significance to stock of returns. This indica-tion that investor still considered factors of fundamentals was having investment. EVA didnot have an effect on significant to stock of returns. This finding indicated that Model deter-mination of stock of returns (CAPM Irrelevant determined the level of EVA and also indicatedthat CAPM (Capital Assets Pricing Model was not relevant in determining stock of returns inIndonesian Stock Exchange.

  4. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate...... population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  5. Value-exchange patterns in business models of intermediaries that offer negotiation services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zlatev, Z.V.; van Eck, Pascal; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    This document is a library of value-exchange patterns. A value-exchange pattern is a repeatedly occurring fragment in value-based business models. The collection is drawn out of business models of market intermediaries that offer negotiation services. The intermediaries are selected as a result of

  6. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  7. Mean Value Modelling of a Turbocharged SI Engine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Martin; Hendricks, Elbert; Sorenson, Spencer C.

    1998-01-01

    but not the cycle-by-cycle behavior. In principle such models are also physically based,are very compact in a mathematical sense but nevertheless can have reasonable prediction accuracy. Presently no MVEMs have been constructed for intercooled turbocharged SI engines because their complexity confounds the simple...... reasonable accuracy for realistic operating scenarios....

  8. Determining input values for a simple parametric model to estimate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating soil evaporation (Es) is an important part of modelling vineyard evapotranspiration for irrigation purposes. Furthermore, quantification of possible soil texture and trellis effects is essential. Daily Es from six topsoils packed into lysimeters was measured under grapevines on slanting and vertical trellises, ...

  9. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links.

  10. P-adic valued models of swarm behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    The swarm behaviour can be fully determined by attractants (food pieces) which change the directions of swarm propagation. If we assume that at each time step the swarm can find out not more than p - 1 attractants, then the swarm behaviour can be coded by p-adic integers. The main task of any swarm is to logistically optimize the road system connecting the reachable attractants. In the meanwhile, the transporting network of the swarm has loops (circles) and permanently changes, e.g. the swarm occupies some attractants and leaves the others. However, this complex dynamics can be effectively coded by p-adic integers. This allows us to represent the swarm behaviour as a calculation on p-adic valued strings.

  11. Effects of model schematisation, geometry and parameter values on urban flood modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vojinovic, Z; Seyoum, S D; Mwalwaka, J M; Price, R K

    2011-01-01

    One-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic models have been used as a standard industry practice for urban flood modelling work for many years. More recently, however, model formulations have included a 1D representation of the main channels and a 2D representation of the floodplains. Since the physical process of describing exchanges of flows with the floodplains can be represented in different ways, the predictive capability of different modelling approaches can also vary. The present paper explores effects of some of the issues that concern urban flood modelling work. Impacts from applying different model schematisation, geometry and parameter values were investigated. The study has mainly focussed on exploring how different Digital Terrain Model (DTM) resolution, presence of different features on DTM such as roads and building structures and different friction coefficients affect the simulation results. Practical implications of these issues are analysed and illustrated in a case study from St Maarten, N.A. The results from this study aim to provide users of numerical models with information that can be used in the analyses of flooding processes in urban areas.

  12. A Review of the Wood Pellet Value Chain, Modern Value/Supply Chain Management Approaches, and Value/Supply Chain Models

    OpenAIRE

    Natalie M. Hughes; Chander Shahi; Reino Pulkki

    2014-01-01

    We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found...

  13. Valuing water resources in Switzerland using a hedonic price model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Diana; Siber, Rosi; Brouwer, Roy; Logar, Ivana; Sanadgol, Dorsa

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, linear and spatial hedonic price models are applied to the housing market in Switzerland, covering all 26 cantons in the country over the period 2005-2010. Besides structural house, neighborhood and socioeconomic characteristics, we include a wide variety of new environmental characteristics related to water to examine their role in explaining variation in sales prices. These include water abundance, different types of water bodies, the recreational function of water, and water disamenity. Significant spatial autocorrelation is found in the estimated models, as well as nonlinear effects for distances to the nearest lake and large river. Significant effects are furthermore found for water abundance and the distance to large rivers, but not to small rivers. Although in both linear and spatial models water related variables explain less than 1% of the price variation, the distance to the nearest bathing site has a larger marginal contribution than many neighborhood-related distance variables. The housing market shows to differentiate between different water related resources in terms of relative contribution to house prices, which could help the housing development industry make more geographically targeted planning activities.

  14. Unlocking Value Creation Using an Agritourism Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Broccardo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism has achieved a greater importance in the last decade, but despite this relevance, the definition is not aligned everywhere, depending on the contingency variables of the context in which agritourism is located. This paper aims at analyzing the business model’s key success factors of Italian agritourism by studying their structural, social and economic features, integrated with a sustainability approach. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of agritourism, located in an Italian region. The empirical results show relevant and useful elements to support the sustainable development of agritourism business models in Italy, linking theory, policy and practices. Indeed, these results, together with others related to the economic dimension of the farms, their specialization, and the characteristics of the farmers make it possible to argue that there are common elements, which offer potential for agritourism. In addition, it was possible to identify two different models of agritourism. Agritourism can open new horizons in rural sustainable development, with possible beneficial effects on the environment, society, agricultural heritage and economic growth. In particular, regional policy developers should take into consideration these elements in order to direct correctly efforts. The research shows also some interesting theoretical implications as it contributes to enrich the literature on this particular kind of business model. At the same time, it helps family owners to increase the overall understanding of their agritourism, in order to finalize adequate planning and communication.

  15. Process-based modelling of the nutritive value of forages: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modelling sward nutritional value (NV) is of particular importance to understand the interactions between grasslands, livestock production, environment and climate-related impacts. Variables describing nutritive value vary significantly between ruminant production systems, but two types are commonly...

  16. Analisa Interdependensi Antara Value Chain Dan Business Model Pada Industri Pengolahan Makanan

    OpenAIRE

    Kristiani, Paulina

    2015-01-01

    Latar belakang dari penelitian ini adalah dengan melihat kondisi lingkungan bisnis yang semakin ketat dan bersaing maka diperlukan model bisnis dan value chain untuk mampu bersaing dalam lingkungan industri. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk melakukan analisa dan mengevaluasi pada value chain saat ini kemudian merancang pengembangan value chain berdasarkan komponen model bisnis. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah dengan menggunakan teknik wawancara dan data value chain makanan saat ini yang diam...

  17. The Atavistic Model of Cancer: Evidence, Objections, Therapeutic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineweaver, Charles

    2014-03-01

    As cancer progresses tumor cells dedifferentiate. In the atavistic model this dedifferentiation is interpreted as a reversion to phylogenetically earlier capabilities (Davies & Lineweaver 2011). Since there is an identifiable order to the evolution of capabilities, the more recently evolved capabilities are more likely to be compromised first during cancer progression. A loss of capabilities based on the phylogenetic order of evolution suggests a therapeutic strategy for targeting cancer - design challenges that can only be met by the recently evolved capabilities still intact in normal cells, but lost in cancer cells. Such a target-the-weakness therapeutic strategy contrasts with most current therapies that target the main strength of cancer: cell proliferation. Here, we describe several examples of this target-the-weakness strategy. Our most detailed example involves the immune system. As cancer progresses, the atavistic model suggests that cancer cells lose contact with the more recently evolved adaptive immune system of the host (the basis of vaccination). The absence of adaptive immunity in immunosuppressed tumor environments is an irreversible weakness of cancer that can be exploited by creating a challenge that only the presence of adaptive immunity can meet. Thus, we propose the post-vaccination inoculation of disease at dosages that the recently evolved (and vaccination-primed) adaptive immune system will be able to destroy in normal cells, but not in the immunosuppressed microenvironment of tumor cells. Co-author: Paul Davies (Arizona State University)

  18. Creating Büchi automata for multi-valued model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vijzelaar, Stefan J.J.; Fokkink, Wan J.

    2017-01-01

    In explicit state model checking of linear temporal logic properties, a Büchi automaton encodes a temporal property. It interleaves with a Kripke model to form a state space, which is searched for counterexamples. Multi-valued model checking considers additional truth values beyond the Boolean true

  19. Total Economic Value of Applied Used Green Line Street Model For Tamarindus Indica in Rembang District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rangga Fajar Abdillah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the green line street functions is to providing land of carbon sink crops. Javanese tamarind (Tamarindus indica is a type of productive crop that has a carbon absorbent function. The type of Javanese tamarind crops production is wood products and tamarind fruit harvest products. The purpose of this study to determine the total economic value (NET a calculation of the model of the applied use of green line street for Javanese tamarind plants .The economic value that can be calculated from the modeling are Direct Value and Indirect Value. Direct benefit value consist of value of wood and value of crop. While indirect benefits value consist of value of carbon stock and biodiversity value. This research was conducted in May 2017 in Rembang District, Rembang Regency, Central Java. The methods used are allometric modeling method and economic valuation method. Allometric modeling method is used to determine the potential of carbon and wood reserves along the green line street. While the economic valuation method is used to calculate total economic value of the application of this modeling result. Applying of this model has result in total economic value Rp 1,942,788,721 per year. It can be concluded that the green liner street has great potential utilization and should be optimally utilized.

  20. Total Economic Value of Applied Used Green Line Street Model For Tamarindus Indica in Rembang District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajar, Abdillah Rangga; Nur, Bambang Azis

    2018-02-01

    One of the green line street functions is to providing land of carbon sink crops. Javanese tamarind (Tamarindus indica) is a type of productive crop that has a carbon absorbent function. The type of Javanese tamarind crops production is wood products and tamarind fruit harvest products. The purpose of this study to determine the total economic value (NET) a calculation of the model of the applied use of green line street for Javanese tamarind plants .The economic value that can be calculated from the modeling are Direct Value and Indirect Value. Direct benefit value consist of value of wood and value of crop. While indirect benefits value consist of value of carbon stock and biodiversity value. This research was conducted in May 2017 in Rembang District, Rembang Regency, Central Java. The methods used are allometric modeling method and economic valuation method. Allometric modeling method is used to determine the potential of carbon and wood reserves along the green line street. While the economic valuation method is used to calculate total economic value of the application of this modeling result. Applying of this model has result in total economic value Rp 1,942,788,721 per year. It can be concluded that the green liner street has great potential utilization and should be optimally utilized.

  1. Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carini Manuela

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

  2. The Analysis of Several Models of Investment Value of Logistics Project Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiu Cheng Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the logistics project evaluation model features reviews the traditional value evaluation model. On the basis of this, using the fuzzy theory, we establish several logistics project evaluation models under fuzzy environment. The analysis of the respective characteristics and the comparison of the calculated results of the three models show that these models are important methods of investment value of logistics evaluation.

  3. Value of the Hydra model system for studying symbiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacevic, Goran

    2012-01-01

    Green Hydra is used as a classical example for explaining symbiosis in schools as well as an excellent research model. Indeed the cosmopolitan green Hydra (Hydra viridissima) provides a potent experimental framework to investigate the symbiotic relationships between a complex eumetazoan organism and a unicellular photoautotrophic green algae named Chlorella. Chlorella populates a single somatic cell type, the gastrodermal myoepithelial cells (also named digestive cells) and the oocyte at the time of sexual reproduction. This symbiotic relationship is stable, well-determined and provides biological advantages to the algal symbionts, but also to green Hydra over the related non-symbiotic Hydra i.e. brown hydra. These advantages likely result from the bidirectional flow of metabolites between the host and the symbiont. Moreover genetic flow through horizontal gene transfer might also participate in the establishment of these selective advantages. However, these relationships between the host and the symbionts may be more complex. Thus, Jolley and Smith showed that the reproductive rate of the algae increases dramatically outside of Hydra cells, although this endosymbiont isolation is debated. Recently it became possible to keep different species of endosymbionts isolated from green Hydra in stable and permanent cultures and compare them to free-living Chlorella species. Future studies testing metabolic relationships and genetic flow should help elucidate the mechanisms that support the maintenance of symbiosis in a eumetazoan species.

  4. TESTING BRAND VALUE MEASUREMENT METHODS IN A RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szõcs Attila

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Our objective is to provide a framework for measuring brand equity, that is, the added value to the product endowed by the brand. Based on a demand and supply model, we propose a structural model that enables testing the structural effect of brand equity (demand side effect on brand value (supply side effect, using Monte Carlo simulation. Our main research question is which of the three brand value measurement methods (price premium, revenue premium and profit premium is more suitable from the perspective of the structural link between brand equity and brand value. Our model is based on recent developments in random coefficients model applications.

  5. Changing, priming, and acting on values: effects via motivational relations in a circular model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maio, Gregory R; Pakizeh, Ali; Cheung, Wing-Yee; Rees, Kerry J

    2009-10-01

    Circular models of values and goals suggest that some motivational aims are consistent with each other, some oppose each other, and others are orthogonal to each other. The present experiments tested this idea explicitly by examining how value confrontation and priming methods influence values and value-consistent behaviors throughout the entire value system. Experiment 1 revealed that change in 1 set of social values causes motivationally compatible values to increase in importance, whereas motivationally incompatible values decrease in importance and orthogonal values remain the same. Experiment 2 found that priming security values reduced the better-than-average effect, but priming stimulation values increased it. Similarly, Experiments 3 and 4 found that priming security values increased cleanliness and decreased curiosity behaviors, whereas priming self-direction values decreased cleanliness and increased curiosity behaviors. Experiment 5 found that priming achievement values increased success at puzzle completion and decreased helpfulness to an experimenter, whereas priming with benevolence values decreased success and increased helpfulness. These results highlight the importance of circular models describing motivational interconnections between values and personal goals. 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Measuring the value of nonwage employee benefits: building a model of the relation between benefit satisfaction and value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weathington, Bart L; Jones, Allan P

    2006-11-01

    Researchers have commonly assumed benefits that employees view as more valuable have a greater influence on their attitudes and behaviors. Researchers have used 2 common methods to measure benefit value: attaching a monetary value to benefits and using self-reports of benefit importance. The present authors propose that the 2 approaches are conceptually distinct and have different implications. They use a social exchange perspective to justify this distinction and integrate both approaches and benefit satisfaction into a more comprehensive model of benefit perception. Results suggest that both measures have practical applications depending on the nature of the exchange relationship between the organization and employees. However, this relationship depends on the specific benefit and on employee satisfaction with that benefit. Some benefits lend themselves to a monetary estimate, whereas others lend themselves more to a nonmonetary valuation.

  7. Calibrating E-values for hidden Markov models using reverse-sequence null models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karplus, Kevin; Karchin, Rachel; Shackelford, George; Hughey, Richard

    2005-11-15

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) calculate the probability that a sequence was generated by a given model. Log-odds scoring provides a context for evaluating this probability, by considering it in relation to a null hypothesis. We have found that using a reverse-sequence null model effectively removes biases owing to sequence length and composition and reduces the number of false positives in a database search. Any scoring system is an arbitrary measure of the quality of database matches. Significance estimates of scores are essential, because they eliminate model- and method-dependent scaling factors, and because they quantify the importance of each match. Accurate computation of the significance of reverse-sequence null model scores presents a problem, because the scores do not fit the extreme-value (Gumbel) distribution commonly used to estimate HMM scores' significance. To get a better estimate of the significance of reverse-sequence null model scores, we derive a theoretical distribution based on the assumption of a Gumbel distribution for raw HMM scores and compare estimates based on this and other distribution families. We derive estimation methods for the parameters of the distributions based on maximum likelihood and on moment matching (least-squares fit for Student's t-distribution). We evaluate the modeled distributions of scores, based on how well they fit the tail of the observed distribution for data not used in the fitting and on the effects of the improved E-values on our HMM-based fold-recognition methods. The theoretical distribution provides some improvement in fitting the tail and in providing fewer false positives in the fold-recognition test. An ad hoc distribution based on assuming a stretched exponential tail does an even better job. The use of Student's t to model the distribution fits well in the middle of the distribution, but provides too heavy a tail. The moment-matching methods fit the tails better than maximum-likelihood methods

  8. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.

  9. Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

    2012-01-01

    In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

  10. Application of the Counseling Psychology Model Training Values Statement Addressing Diversity to the Admission Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewy, Michael I.; Juntunen, Cindy L.; Duan, Changming

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the responsibility of counseling psychology programs to communicate and implement the professional training values regarding diversity as articulated in the "Counseling Psychology Model Training Values Statement Addressing Diversity" (henceforth the "Values Statement") clearly and directly in the advertising and admission…

  11. Interval-Valued Model Level Fuzzy Aggregation-Based Background Subtraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiranjeevi, Pojala; Sengupta, Somnath

    2017-09-01

    In a recent work, the effectiveness of neighborhood supported model level fuzzy aggregation was shown under dynamic background conditions. The multi-feature fuzzy aggregation used in that approach uses real fuzzy similarity values, and is robust for low and medium-scale dynamic background conditions such as swaying vegetation, sprinkling water, etc. The technique, however, exhibited some limitations under heavily dynamic background conditions, as features have high uncertainty under such noisy conditions and these uncertainties were not captured by real fuzzy similarity values. Our proposed algorithm is particularly focused toward improving the detection under heavy dynamic background conditions by modeling uncertainties in the data by interval-valued fuzzy set. In this paper, real-valued fuzzy aggregation has been extended to interval-valued fuzzy aggregation by considering uncertainties over real similarity values. We build up a procedure to calculate the uncertainty that varies for each feature, at each pixel, and at each time instant. We adaptively determine membership values at each pixel by the Gaussian of uncertainty value instead of fixed membership values used in recent fuzzy approaches, thereby, giving importance to a feature based on its uncertainty. Interval-valued Choquet integral is evaluated using interval similarity values and the membership values in order to calculate interval-valued fuzzy similarity between model and current. Adequate qualitative and quantitative studies are carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in mitigating heavily dynamic background situations as compared to state-of-the-art.

  12. The Potential Consequence of Using Value-Added Models to Evaluate Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Zuchao; Simon, Carlee Escue; Kelcey, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Value-added models try to separate the contribution of individual teachers or schools to students' learning growth measured by standardized test scores. There is a policy trend to use value-added modeling to evaluate teachers because of its face validity and superficial objectiveness. This article investigates the potential long term consequences…

  13. A binomial random sum of present value models in investment analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Βουδούρη, Αγγελική; Ντζιαχρήστος, Ευάγγελος

    1997-01-01

    Stochastic present value models have been widely adopted in financial theory and practice and play a very important role in capital budgeting and profit planning. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a binomial random sum of stochastic present value models and offer an application in investment analysis.

  14. Integrating Work and Basic Values into the Spherical Model of Interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodano, Sandro M.

    2011-01-01

    Two prominent models of values, one in work and the other in life, were examined as they each related to the dimensions underlying the Spherical Model of Interests (Tracey & Rounds, 1996) as measured by the Personal Globe Inventory (PGI; Tracey, 2002). The technique of external property vector fitting was utilized to plot the value constructs onto…

  15. TESTING BRAND VALUE MEASUREMENT METHODS IN A RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Szõcs Attila

    2014-01-01

    Our objective is to provide a framework for measuring brand equity, that is, the added value to the product endowed by the brand. Based on a demand and supply model, we propose a structural model that enables testing the structural effect of brand equity (demand side effect) on brand value (supply side effect), using Monte Carlo simulation. Our main research question is which of the three brand value measurement methods (price premium, revenue premium and profit premium) is more suitable from...

  16. Dual Value Creation and Business Model Design: An Ethnographic Study of an Internationalizing NGO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turcan, Romeo V.

    This ethnographic research explores the process of business model design in the context of an NGO internationalizing to an emerging market. It contributes to the business model literature by investigating how this NGO - targeting multiple key stakeholders - was experimenting (1) with value...... proposition; (2) creating the value/promise; and (3) delivering the value. Theoretically the paper is grounded in the dynamic capability view of the firm providing venues for future research and implications for policy and practice....

  17. Finite difference approximations for measure-valued solutions of a hierarchically size-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Chellamuthu, Vinodh K; Ito, Kazufumi

    2015-04-01

    We study a quasilinear hierarchically size-structured population model presented in [4]. In this model the growth, mortality and reproduction rates are assumed to depend on a function of the population density. In [4] we showed that solutions to this model can become singular (measure-valued) in finite time even if all the individual parameters are smooth. Therefore, in this paper we develop a first order finite difference scheme to compute these measure-valued solutions. Convergence analysis for this method is provided. We also develop a high resolution second order scheme to compute the measure-valued solution of the model and perform a comparative study between the two schemes.

  18. Constructing set-valued fundamental diagrams from jamiton solutions in second order traffic models

    KAUST Repository

    Seibold, Benjamin

    2013-09-01

    Fundamental diagrams of vehicular traiic ow are generally multivalued in the congested ow regime. We show that such set-valued fundamental diagrams can be constructed systematically from simple second order macroscopic traiic models, such as the classical Payne-Whitham model or the inhomogeneous Aw-Rascle-Zhang model. These second order models possess nonlinear traveling wave solutions, called jamitons, and the multi-valued parts in the fundamental diagram correspond precisely to jamiton-dominated solutions. This study shows that transitions from function-valued to set-valued parts in a fundamental diagram arise naturally in well-known second order models. As a particular consequence, these models intrinsically reproduce traiic phases. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

  19. [Eco-value level classification model of forest ecosystem based on modified projection pursuit technique].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengzhen; Hong, Wei; Hong, Tao

    2006-03-01

    To optimize the projection function and direction of projection pursuit technique, predigest its realization process, and overcome the shortcomings in long time calculation and in the difficulty of optimizing projection direction and computer programming, this paper presented a modified simplex method (MSM), and based on it, brought forward the eco-value level classification model (EVLCM) of forest ecosystem, which could integrate the multidimensional classification index into one-dimensional projection value, with high projection value denoting high ecosystem services value. Examples of forest ecosystem could be reasonably classified by the new model according to their projection value, suggesting that EVLCM driven directly by samples data of forest ecosystem was simple and feasible, applicable, and maneuverable. The calculating time and value of projection function were 34% and 143% of those with the traditional projection pursuit technique, respectively. This model could be applied extensively to classify and estimate all kinds of non-linear and multidimensional data in ecology, biology, and regional sustainable development.

  20. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  1. Efficient Multi-Valued Bounded Model Checking for LTL over Quasi-Boolean Algebras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Jefferson O.; Kameyama, Yukiyoshi

    Multi-valued Model Checking extends classical, two-valued model checking to multi-valued logic such as Quasi-Boolean logic. The added expressivity is useful in dealing with such concepts as incompleteness and uncertainty in target systems, while it comes with the cost of time and space. Chechik and others proposed an efficient reduction from multi-valued model checking problems to two-valued ones, but to the authors' knowledge, no study was done for multi-valued bounded model checking. In this paper, we propose a novel, efficient algorithm for multi-valued bounded model checking. A notable feature of our algorithm is that it is not based on reduction of multi-values into two-values; instead, it generates a single formula which represents multi-valuedness by a suitable encoding, and asks a standard SAT solver to check its satisfiability. Our experimental results show a significant improvement in the number of variables and clauses and also in execution time compared with the reduction-based one.

  2. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositio...

  3. Predictive error dependencies when using pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John

    2008-01-01

    over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the (possibly weighted) sensitivity matrix of the pilot point based model produces eigenvectors of which we pick a small number corresponding to significant eigenvalues. Super parameters are defined as factors through which parameter...... nonlinear functions. Recommendations concerning the use of pilot points and singular value decomposition in real-world groundwater model calibration are finally given. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  4. Use of Gumbel and Weibull functions to model extreme values of diameter distributions in forest stands

    OpenAIRE

    Gorgoso-Varela, J. Javier; Rojo-Alboreca, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    International audience; & Context Families of the Gumbel (type I), Fréchet (type II) and Weibull (type III) distributions can be combined in the generalized extreme value (GEV) family of distributions. Maximum and minimum values of diameters in forest stands can be used in forest modelling, mainly to define parameters of the functions used in diameter class models as well as in some practical cases, such as modelling maximum diameters for sawing and processing purposes. & Aims The purpose of ...

  5. Three-Dimensional Service Value Creation Model Based on Multidisciplinary Framework: Service Value Transition in Flower Tourism and Robotized Music Appreciation Services

    OpenAIRE

    Nakamura, Kotaro; Imahori, Takahiro; Ikawa, Yasuo

    2010-01-01

    This paper is focused on the process of value creation in the service business and on the shift of service value created in actual service businesses. The analysis is used to demonstrate proposed models for explaining this shift. Service value is successfully created when customers enjoy the benefits of services proposed through a system of service businesses. The model visualizes the shift of service value, focusing on the three axes of width (of the place for service providing/usage in the ...

  6. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  7. An Early Model for Value and Sustainability in Health Information Exchanges: Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Sue S

    2018-04-30

    The primary value relative to health information exchange has been seen in terms of cost savings relative to laboratory and radiology testing, emergency department expenditures, and admissions. However, models are needed to statistically quantify value and sustainability and better understand the dependent and mediating factors that contribute to value and sustainability. The purpose of this study was to provide a basis for early model development for health information exchange value and sustainability. A qualitative study was conducted with 21 interviews of eHealth Exchange participants across 10 organizations. Using a grounded theory approach and 3.0 as a relative frequency threshold, 5 main categories and 16 subcategories emerged. This study identifies 3 core current perceived value factors and 5 potential perceived value factors-how interviewees predict health information exchanges may evolve as there are more participants. These value factors were used as the foundation for early model development for sustainability of health information exchange. Using the value factors from the interviews, the study provides the basis for early model development for health information exchange value and sustainability. This basis includes factors from the research: fostering consumer engagement; establishing a provider directory; quantifying use, cost, and clinical outcomes; ensuring data integrity through patient matching; and increasing awareness, usefulness, interoperability, and sustainability of eHealth Exchange. ©Sue S Feldman. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 30.04.2018.

  8. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  9. Housing Value Projection Model Related to Educational Planning: The Feasibility of a New Methodology. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbock, Richard W.; Marker, Gordon

    This study concerns the feasibility of a Markov chain model for projecting housing values and racial mixes. Such projections could be used in planning the layout of school districts to achieve desired levels of socioeconomic heterogeneity. Based upon the concepts and assumptions underlying a Markov chain model, it is concluded that such a model is…

  10. An Analysis of the Educational Value of Low-Fidelity Anatomy Models as External Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Lap Ki; Cheng, Maurice M. W.

    2011-01-01

    Although high-fidelity digital models of human anatomy based on actual cross-sectional images of the human body have been developed, reports on the use of physical models in anatomy teaching continue to appear. This article aims to examine the common features shared by these physical models and analyze their educational value based on the…

  11. Missing Value Imputation Based on Gaussian Mixture Model for the Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaobo Yan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses missing value imputation for the Internet of Things (IoT. Nowadays, the IoT has been used widely and commonly by a variety of domains, such as transportation and logistics domain and healthcare domain. However, missing values are very common in the IoT for a variety of reasons, which results in the fact that the experimental data are incomplete. As a result of this, some work, which is related to the data of the IoT, can’t be carried out normally. And it leads to the reduction in the accuracy and reliability of the data analysis results. This paper, for the characteristics of the data itself and the features of missing data in IoT, divides the missing data into three types and defines three corresponding missing value imputation problems. Then, we propose three new models to solve the corresponding problems, and they are model of missing value imputation based on context and linear mean (MCL, model of missing value imputation based on binary search (MBS, and model of missing value imputation based on Gaussian mixture model (MGI. Experimental results showed that the three models can improve the accuracy, reliability, and stability of missing value imputation greatly and effectively.

  12. Determination of Complex-Valued Parametric Model Coefficients Using Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Aibinu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A new approach for determining the coefficients of a complex-valued autoregressive (CAR and complex-valued autoregressive moving average (CARMA model coefficients using complex-valued neural network (CVNN technique is discussed in this paper. The CAR and complex-valued moving average (CMA coefficients which constitute a CARMA model are computed simultaneously from the adaptive weights and coefficients of the linear activation functions in a two-layered CVNN. The performance of the proposed technique has been evaluated using simulated complex-valued data (CVD with three different types of activation functions. The results show that the proposed method can accurately determine the model coefficients provided that the network is properly trained. Furthermore, application of the developed CVNN-based technique for MRI K-space reconstruction results in images with improve resolution.

  13. Structural and functional model of the value of a healthy lifestyle of students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mameri Farid.

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available It is analyze the main elements of the structural-functional model of the formation of values of a healthy lifestyle of students. It is revealed some elements of educational technology, teaching requirements for the organization of educational work on the formation of values of a healthy lifestyle of students. It is noted that the improvement of the formation of values of a healthy lifestyle of students increased, subject to the enrichment of its assessment criteria.

  14. Business Model Innovation to Create and Capture Resource Value in Future Circular Material Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Göran Roos

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article briefly discusses the origins and development of the business model concept resulting in a high level definition. Against this backdrop, frameworks from the literature around green business models with examples of green business models and the business model innovation process are presented. The article then discusses the origins and meaning of different "green" concepts relevant for the circular value chain concluding with a high level definition. The article finally outline the process by which a business model for a circular value chain can be developed taking into account the social dilemma that exist in these type of situations. The article concludes with the specific questions that need to be answered in order to create an appropriate business model for a circular value chain.

  15. Stability of Teacher Value-Added Rankings across Measurement Model and Scaling Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Leslie R.; Bovaird, James A.; Wu, ChaoRong

    2017-01-01

    Value-added assessment methods have been criticized by researchers and policy makers for a number of reasons. One issue includes the sensitivity of model results across different outcome measures. This study examined the utility of incorporating multivariate latent variable approaches within a traditional value-added framework. We evaluated the…

  16. Personal Values, Social Capital, and Higher Education Student Career Decidedness: A New "Protean"-Informed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearon, Colm; Nachmias, Stefanos; McLaughlin, Heather; Jackson, Stephen

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the role of personal values as motivational antecedents for understanding higher education (HE) student career decidedness among university business school (UBS) students. We propose a new "protean"-informed HE student career decidedness model for theorizing how both personal values and social capital mediators…

  17. College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

    2008-01-01

    Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

  18. Towards an Integrated Value Adding Management Model for FM and CREM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jensen, Per Anker; van der Voordt, Theo; Kähkönen, Kalle; Keinänen, Marko

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To present an integrated process model of adding value by Facilities Management (FM) and Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) that is a generalisation of existing conceptual frameworks and aims to be a basis for management of added value in practice.
    Background: The growing research

  19. Model of Values-Based Management Process in Schools: A Mixed Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, Soner

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the school administrators' values-based management behaviours according to the teachers' perceptions and opinions and, accordingly, to build a model of values-based management process in schools. The study was conducted using explanatory design which is inclusive of both quantitative and qualitative methods.…

  20. The Development of a Qualitative Dynamic Attribute Value Model for Healthcare Institutes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wan-I

    2010-01-01

    Background: Understanding customers has become an urgent topic for increasing competitiveness. The purpopse of the study was to develop a qualitative dynamic attribute value model which provides insight into the customers’ value for healthcare institute managers by conducting the initial open-ended questionnaire survey to select participants purposefully. Methods: A total number of 427 questionnaires was conducted in two hospitals in Taiwan (one district hospital with 635 beds and one academic hospital with 2495 beds) and 419 questionnaires were received in nine weeks. Then, apply qualitative in-depth interviews to explore customers’ perspective of values for building a model of partial differential equations. Results: This study concludes nine categories of value, including cost, equipment, physician background, physicain care, environment, timing arrangement, relationship, brand image and additional value, to construct objective network for customer value and qualitative dynamic attribute value model where the network shows the value process of loyalty development via its effect on customer satisfaction, customer relationship, customer loyalty and healthcare service. Conclusion: One set predicts the customer relationship based on comminent, including service quality, communication and empahty. As the same time, customer loyalty based on trust, involves buzz marketing, brand and image. Customer value of the current instance is useful for traversing original customer attributes and identifing customers on different service share. PMID:23113034

  1. The development of a qualitative dynamic attribute value model for healthcare institutes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wan-I

    2010-01-01

    Understanding customers has become an urgent topic for increasing competitiveness. The purpopse of the study was to develop a qualitative dynamic attribute value model which provides insight into the customers' value for healthcare institute managers by conducting the initial open-ended questionnaire survey to select participants purposefully. A total number of 427 questionnaires was conducted in two hospitals in Taiwan (one district hospital with 635 beds and one academic hospital with 2495 beds) and 419 questionnaires were received in nine weeks. Then, apply qualitative in-depth interviews to explore customers' perspective of values for building a model of partial differential equations. This study concludes nine categories of value, including cost, equipment, physician background, physicain care, environment, timing arrangement, relationship, brand image and additional value, to construct objective network for customer value and qualitative dynamic attribute value model where the network shows the value process of loyalty development via its effect on customer satisfaction, customer relationship, customer loyalty and healthcare service. One set predicts the customer relationship based on comminent, including service quality, communication and empahty. As the same time, customer loyalty based on trust, involves buzz marketing, brand and image. Customer value of the current instance is useful for traversing original customer attributes and identifing customers on different service share.

  2. Comparison of Optimal Portfolios Selected by Multicriterial Model Using Absolute and Relative Criteria Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Marasović

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.

  3. Digitized Onondaga Lake Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Model Simulated Values using Bayesian Monte Carlo Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset is lake dissolved oxygen concentrations obtained form plots published by Gelda et al. (1996) and lake reaeration model simulated values using Bayesian...

  4. Modeling the Value of Micro Solutions in Air Force Financial Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    O'Hare, Scott M; Krott, James E

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this MBA Project was to develop a model that would estimate the value of applying available spreadsheet programming tools to automation opportunities in Air Force Financial Management (FM...

  5. Teachers’ individual action theories about competence-based education: the value of the cognitive apprenticeship model

    OpenAIRE

    Seezink, Audrey; Poell, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2009-01-01

    Seezink, A., Poell, R. F., & Kirschner, P. A. (2009). Teachers' individual action theories about competence-based education: The value of the cognitive apprenticeship model. Journal of Vocational Education & Training, 61, 203-215.

  6. A conceptual model of channel choice : measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product

  7. Modeling Dynamic Processes in Smallholder Dairy Value Chains in Nicaragua: A System Dynamics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helene Lie

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

  8. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  9. Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette, Douglas L; Mayer, Lauren A; Cwik, Bryan; Vezér, Martin; Keller, Klaus; Lempert, Robert J; Tuana, Nancy

    2017-10-01

    Individuals use values to frame their beliefs and simplify their understanding when confronted with complex and uncertain situations. The high complexity and deep uncertainty involved in climate risk management (CRM) lead to individuals' values likely being coupled to and contributing to their understanding of specific climate risk factors and management strategies. Most mental model approaches, however, which are commonly used to inform our understanding of people's beliefs, ignore values. In response, we developed a "Values-informed Mental Model" research approach, or ViMM, to elicit individuals' values alongside their beliefs and determine which values people use to understand and assess specific climate risk factors and CRM strategies. Our results show that participants consistently used one of three values to frame their understanding of risk factors and CRM strategies in New Orleans: (1) fostering a healthy economy, wealth, and job creation, (2) protecting and promoting healthy ecosystems and biodiversity, and (3) preserving New Orleans' unique culture, traditions, and historically significant neighborhoods. While the first value frame is common in analyses of CRM strategies, the latter two are often ignored, despite their mirroring commonly accepted pillars of sustainability. Other values like distributive justice and fairness were prioritized differently depending on the risk factor or strategy being discussed. These results suggest that the ViMM method could be a critical first step in CRM decision-support processes and may encourage adoption of CRM strategies more in line with stakeholders' values. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Using many pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John

    2008-01-01

    over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the normal matrix is used to reduce the large number of pilot point parameters to a smaller number of so-called super parameters that can be estimated by nonlinear regression from the available observations. A number of eigenvectors...... corresponding to significant Eigen values (resulting from the decomposition) is used to transform the model from having many pilot point parameters to having a few super parameters. A synthetic case model is used to analyze and demonstrate the application of the presented method of model parameterization...

  11. A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Douglas B. Rideout

    2003-01-01

    The Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors...

  12. PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

  13. A Tuned Value Chain Model for University Based Public Research Organisation. Case Lut Cst.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesa Karvonen

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Porter´s value chain model was introduced for strategic business purposes. During the last decades also Universities and University based institutes have started to use actions similar to private business concepts. A University based institute is not independent actor like company but there are interest groups who are expecting them to act like they would be. This article discusses about the possibility of utilize tuned value chain to public research organizations (PRO. Also the interactions of tuned value chain model to existing industrial network are discussed. The case study object is the Centre for Separation Technology (CST at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT in Finland.

  14. The O(N) model: Calculation of the effective potential for arbitrary values of N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; Castellani, E.; De Curtis, S.; Florence Univ.

    1983-01-01

    By using the technique of the effective action for composition operators, we present a calculation of the effective potential of the O(N) scalar model for arbitrary values of N. The potential is given as a truncation of a loop expansion, and reproduces the known results of the N->infinite limit. The potential shows a symmetry breaking for ''small'' values of the ''classical fields'', whereas it shows Landau-type singularities in the region of ''large'' value. However, these singularities are clearly an artifact of our approximation and the model is perfectly consistent in the low energy regime. (orig.)

  15. On pseudo-values for regression analysis in competing risks models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graw, F; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Schumacher, M

    2009-01-01

    For regression on state and transition probabilities in multi-state models Andersen et al. (Biometrika 90:15-27, 2003) propose a technique based on jackknife pseudo-values. In this article we analyze the pseudo-values suggested for competing risks models and prove some conjectures regarding...... their asymptotics (Klein and Andersen, Biometrics 61:223-229, 2005). The key is a second order von Mises expansion of the Aalen-Johansen estimator which yields an appropriate representation of the pseudo-values. The method is illustrated with data from a clinical study on total joint replacement. In the application...

  16. Integration of Latino/a cultural values into palliative health care: a culture centered model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adames, Hector Y; Chavez-Dueñas, Nayeli Y; Fuentes, Milton A; Salas, Silvia P; Perez-Chavez, Jessica G

    2014-04-01

    Culture helps us grapple with, understand, and navigate the dying process. Although often overlooked, cultural values play a critical and influential role in palliative care. The purpose of the present study was two-fold: one, to review whether Latino/a cultural values have been integrated into the palliative care literature for Latinos/as; two, identify publications that provide recommendations on how palliative care providers can integrate Latino/a cultural values into the end-of-life care. A comprehensive systematic review on the area of Latino/a cultural values in palliative care was conducted via an electronic literature search of publications between 1930-2013. Five articles were identified for reviewing, discussing, or mentioning Latino/a cultural values and palliative care. Only one article specifically addressed Latino/a cultural values in palliative care. The four remaining articles discuss or mention cultural values; however, the cultural values were not the main focus of each article's thesis. The results of the current study highlight the lack of literature specifically addressing the importance of integrating Latino/a cultural values into the delivery of palliative care. As a result, this article introduces the Culture-Centered Palliative Care Model (CCPC). The article defines five key traditional Latino/a cultural values (i.e., familismo, personalismo, respeto, confianza, and dignidad), discusses the influence of each value on palliative health care, and ends with practical recommendations for service providers. Special attention is given to the stages of acculturation and ethnic identity.

  17. SPSS macros to compare any two fitted values from a regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Bruce; Dubois, Sacha

    2012-12-01

    In regression models with first-order terms only, the coefficient for a given variable is typically interpreted as the change in the fitted value of Y for a one-unit increase in that variable, with all other variables held constant. Therefore, each regression coefficient represents the difference between two fitted values of Y. But the coefficients represent only a fraction of the possible fitted value comparisons that might be of interest to researchers. For many fitted value comparisons that are not captured by any of the regression coefficients, common statistical software packages do not provide the standard errors needed to compute confidence intervals or carry out statistical tests-particularly in more complex models that include interactions, polynomial terms, or regression splines. We describe two SPSS macros that implement a matrix algebra method for comparing any two fitted values from a regression model. The !OLScomp and !MLEcomp macros are for use with models fitted via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively. The output from the macros includes the standard error of the difference between the two fitted values, a 95% confidence interval for the difference, and a corresponding statistical test with its p-value.

  18. 40 CFR 600.209-08 - Calculation of vehicle-specific 5-cycle fuel economy values for a model type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-cycle fuel economy values for a model type. 600.209-08 Section 600.209-08 Protection of Environment... model type. (a) Base level. 5-cycle fuel economy values for a base level are calculated from vehicle... any model type value is calculated for a label value. (iii) The provisions of this paragraph (a)(3...

  19. The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...... in their specification of the conditional variance, conditional correlation, and innovation distribution. All models belong to the dynamic conditional correlation class which is particularly suited because it allows to consistently estimate the risk neutral dynamics with a manageable computational effort in relatively...

  20. A two process model of burnout and work engagement: distinct implications of demands and values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, M P

    2008-01-01

    A model of job burnout proposes two distinct processes. The first process concerns balance of demands to resources. A poor balance leads to chronic exhaustion, an integral aspect of the burnout syndrome. The second process concerns the congruence of individual and organizational values. The model proposes that value conflicts have implications for all three aspects of burnout. It also proposes that the impact of value conflicts has only minor implications for the exhaustion aspect of burnout; they are more relevant for the cynicism and inefficacy aspects of the syndrome. The model considers distinct processes at work that concern employees' perception of organizational justice and their trust in leadership. With a sample of 725 nurses, the analysis tested one component of the theory: the extent to which value congruence enhances the prediction of burnout beyond the prediction provided by demands and resources. Future directions are discussed.

  1. Towards an Integrated Value Adding Management Model for FM and CREM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Per Anker; van der Voordt, Theo

    2016-01-01

    Purpose : To present an integrated process model of adding value by Facilities Management (FM) and Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) that is a generalisation of existing conceptual frameworks and aims to be a basis for management of added value in practice. Background : The growing research...... on the added value of FM and CREM over the last decade has resulted in the development of several conceptual frameworks and the collection of much empirical data in practice. However, the practical application of current knowledge has shown to be limited and difficult. The reasons seem to be that the different...... aims at supporting the practical management and measurement of added value. A typology with six types of FM/CREM interventions is developed from earlier research. The concept of Value Adding Management is investigated and the 12 most important added value parameters are identified. Research limitations...

  2. Representation of Solar Capacity Value in the ReEDS Capacity Expansion Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibanez, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2014-03-01

    An important issue for electricity system operators is the estimation of renewables' capacity contributions to reliably meeting system demand, or their capacity value. While the capacity value of thermal generation can be estimated easily, assessment of wind and solar requires a more nuanced approach due to the resource variability. Reliability-based methods, particularly assessment of the Effective Load-Carrying Capacity, are considered to be the most robust and widely-accepted techniques for addressing this resource variability. This report compares estimates of solar PV capacity value by the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model against two sources. The first comparison is against values published by utilities or other entities for known electrical systems at existing solar penetration levels. The second comparison is against a time-series ELCC simulation tool for high renewable penetration scenarios in the Western Interconnection. Results from the ReEDS model are found to compare well with both comparisons, despite being resolved at a super-hourly temporal resolution. Two results are relevant for other capacity-based models that use a super-hourly resolution to model solar capacity value. First, solar capacity value should not be parameterized as a static value, but must decay with increasing penetration. This is because -- for an afternoon-peaking system -- as solar penetration increases, the system's peak net load shifts to later in the day -- when solar output is lower. Second, long-term planning models should determine system adequacy requirements in each time period in order to approximate LOLP calculations. Within the ReEDS model we resolve these issues by using a capacity value estimate that varies by time-slice. Within each time period the net load and shadow price on ReEDS's planning reserve constraint signals the relative importance of additional firm capacity.

  3. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  4. Bioeconomic Modelling of Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Accounting for Amenity Values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van G.C.; Whitey, P.; Wong, L.

    2011-01-01

    This study reexamines and updates an original bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention by Hammack and Brown (1974, Waterfowl and Wetlands: Toward Bioeconomic Analysis. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future). It then extends the model to include the nonmarket (in situ) value

  5. Evaluating Portfolio Value-At-Risk Using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.V.K. Rombouts; M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.

  6. Operationalizing the Concept of Value--An Action Research-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naslund, Dag; Olsson, Annika; Karlsson, Sture

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: While the importance of measuring customer satisfaction levels is well established, less research exists on how organizations operationalize such knowledge. The purpose of this paper is to describe an action research (AR) case study resulting in a workshop model to operationalize the concept of value. The model facilitates organizational…

  7. A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

    2010-01-01

    Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

  8. Analysing stratified medicine business models and value systems: innovation-regulation interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittra, James; Tait, Joyce

    2012-09-15

    Stratified medicine offers both opportunities and challenges to the conventional business models that drive pharmaceutical R&D. Given the increasingly unsustainable blockbuster model of drug development, due in part to maturing product pipelines, alongside increasing demands from regulators, healthcare providers and patients for higher standards of safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of new therapies, stratified medicine promises a range of benefits to pharmaceutical and diagnostic firms as well as healthcare providers and patients. However, the transition from 'blockbusters' to what might now be termed 'niche-busters' will require the adoption of new, innovative business models, the identification of different and perhaps novel types of value along the R&D pathway, and a smarter approach to regulation to facilitate innovation in this area. In this paper we apply the Innogen Centre's interdisciplinary ALSIS methodology, which we have developed for the analysis of life science innovation systems in contexts where the value creation process is lengthy, expensive and highly uncertain, to this emerging field of stratified medicine. In doing so, we consider the complex collaboration, timing, coordination and regulatory interactions that shape business models, value chains and value systems relevant to stratified medicine. More specifically, we explore in some depth two convergence models for co-development of a therapy and diagnostic before market authorisation, highlighting the regulatory requirements and policy initiatives within the broader value system environment that have a key role in determining the probable success and sustainability of these models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Model Recommended Values of Corporate Culture for Industrial Companies in Slovak Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbanovičová, Petra; Mikulášková, Justína; Čambál, Miloš

    2017-09-01

    The main objective of the paper is to describe the recommended values model of corporate culture and supporting business performance for industrial companies operating in the Slovak Republic. This model was developed on the basis of research results within the STU Project to support young researchers entitled "Changing the potential of the companýs success using the principles of spiral management and its impact on corporate culture". The current paper is a part of submitted VEGA project No.1/0348/17 "The impact of the coexistence of different generations of employees on the sustainable performance of organisations". This model will be the basis for defining corporate values and developing or changing corporate culture for the companies operating on or coming (from abroad) to the Slovak market. The characteristic features of the value model are simplicity, complexity and applicability. This model takes into account the current situation on the Slovak market. The values of this model have a different level of significance given and each value is defined by the specified principles.

  10. Model Recommended Values of Corporate Culture for Industrial Companies in Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urbanovičová Petra

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the paper is to describe the recommended values model of corporate culture and supporting business performance for industrial companies operating in the Slovak Republic. This model was developed on the basis of research results within the STU Project to support young researchers entitled “Changing the potential of the company´s success using the principles of spiral management and its impact on corporate culture”. The current paper is a part of submitted VEGA project No.1/0348/17 “The impact of the coexistence of different generations of employees on the sustainable performance of organisations”. This model will be the basis for defining corporate values and developing or changing corporate culture for the companies operating on or coming (from abroad to the Slovak market. The characteristic features of the value model are simplicity, complexity and applicability. This model takes into account the current situation on the Slovak market. The values of this model have a different level of significance given and each value is defined by the specified principles.

  11. The value of load shifting. An estimate for Norway using the EMPS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard; Wolfgang, Ove

    2006-05-01

    An attempt is made to estimate the value of Load Shifting (LS) in the Norwegian system, using the EMPS model. A thorough update of the demand side model and cost estimates used in the model was done as a preparation for the project, and the report gives a comprehensive description of the demand models used. The LS measure that is analyzed is moving 600 MW demand in Norway from peak to lower demand hours during the day. The value of this was estimated both in a simplified manner (based on simulated price differences between these periods), and by simulations with the EMPS model and a subsequent calculation of the socio-economic surplus. Neither approaches showed any significant value. The results do not necessarily mean that the value in reality is zero - there are a number of limitations in the model which make it difficult to estimate the real value, like the representation of wind generation, demand variability, outages, exchange prices with continental Europe, flexibility of hydro and thermal generation, reserves and elasticity of demand in the short run. It was verified through sensitivity calculations that especially increasing reserve requirements and increasing the variability of wind generation increased price differences and therefore the value of LS. A number of improvements in the EMPS model and data are proposed to obtain a more suitable simulation model for this kind of analyses: 1) modeling of reserves, 2) representation of wind variability, 3) thermal generation models, 4) differentiation between long and short term price elasticity, 5) review of interconnection capacities, 6) use of quadratic losses and the 7) representation of more stochastic factors like e.g. outages in the simulations. Although the model at present clearly has its limitations with respect to estimating the value of LS, it appears that price differences between spot prices in the actual hours in reality are small. Comparison with Nord Pool spot prices for the years 2003

  12. Assessing the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes: II. Model testing and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Richard A; Charpentier, Michael A; Wigand, Cathleen

    2009-07-01

    We tested a previously described model to assess the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes by comparing modeled habitat values and scores with bird abundance and species richness at sixteen salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island USA. As a group, wildlife habitat value assessment scores for the marshes ranged from 307-509, or 31-67% of the maximum attainable score. We recorded 6 species of wading birds (Ardeidae; herons, egrets, and bitterns) at the sites during biweekly survey. Species richness (r (2)=0.24, F=4.53, p=0.05) and abundance (r (2)=0.26, F=5.00, p=0.04) of wading birds significantly increased with increasing assessment score. We optimized our assessment model for wading birds by using Akaike information criteria (AIC) to compare a series of models comprised of specific components and categories of our model that best reflect their habitat use. The model incorporating pre-classification, wading bird habitat categories, and natural land surrounding the sites was substantially supported by AIC analysis as the best model. The abundance of wading birds significantly increased with increasing assessment scores generated with the optimized model (r (2)=0.48, F=12.5, p=0.003), demonstrating that optimizing models can be helpful in improving the accuracy of the assessment for a given species or species assemblage. In addition to validating the assessment model, our results show that in spite of their urban setting our study marshes provide substantial wildlife habitat value. This suggests that even small wetlands in highly urbanized coastal settings can provide important wildlife habitat value if key habitat attributes (e.g., natural buffers, habitat heterogeneity) are present.

  13. A lattice-valued linguistic decision model for nuclear safeguards applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruan, D.; Liu, J.; Carchon, R.

    2001-01-01

    In this study, we focus our attention on decision making models to process uncertainty-based information directly without transforming them into any particular membership function, i.e., directly using linguistic information (linguistic values) instead of numbers (numerical values). By analyzing the feature of linguistic values ordered by their means of common usage, we argue that the set of linguistic values should be characterized by a lattice structure. We propose the lattice structure based on a logical algebraic structure i.e., lattice implication algebra. Finally, we obtain a multi-objective decision-making model by extending Yager's multi-objective model from the following aspects: (1) extension of linguistic information: from a set of linear ordered linguistic labels (values) to that of lattice-valued linguistic labels; (2) extension of the combination function M, which is used to combine the individual ratings with the weights of criteria. We propose an implication operation form of M. The implication operation can be drawn from lattice implication algebra. As an illustration, we will finally apply this decision model to the evaluation problem in safeguard relevant information. (orig.)

  14. A New Five-Parameter Fréchet Model for Extreme Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ahsan ul Haq

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A new five parameter Fréchet model for Extreme Values was proposed and studied. Various mathematical properties including moments, quantiles, and moment generating function were derived. Incomplete moments and probability weighted moments were also obtained. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the model parameters. The flexibility of the derived model was accessed using two real data set applications.

  15. Value-based benefit design: using a predictive modeling approach to improve compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, John J

    2008-07-01

    Increased medication compliance rates have been demonstrated to result in improved clinical outcomes and reduced overall medical expenditures. As such, managed care stakeholders should take the total value approach to benefit design and consider total medical costs beyond the cost of pharmacotherapy alone. To describe the value-based benefit design employed by Pitney Bowes (specifically, the predictive modeling approach), to improve medication compliance, and to report the results of this intervention. Despite significant skepticism surrounding value-based benefit design, there is growing evidence that these plans can be used in conjunction with careful pharmacy management. In fact, value-based design provides a different lever on pharmacy management and allows for the appropriate drug to be channeled to the appropriate person. Studies demonstrating the adverse impact of high coinsurance levels further augment the argument for value-based benefit design. Value-based benefit design was employed at Pitney Bowes, a $6.1-billion global provider of integrated mailstream solutions, with noticeable success. Patients were either placed in a disease management program or in a secondary program promoting preventive care. The company selectively cut copays to achieve that end, and this total value approach translated into significant savings. To develop a successful value-based benefit design, stakeholders cannot simply cut costs or cut copays. Action must be taken as part of a concerted program, coupled with disease management or similar interventions. "Value based" means that positive outcomes are the ultimate goal, and barriers to those positive outcomes must be addressed.

  16. A financial market model with endogenous fundamental values through imitative behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a financial market model with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists that, respectively, overestimate and underestimate the true fundamental value due to ambiguity in the stock market, which prevents them from relying on the true fundamental value in their speculations. Indeed, we assume that agents use in its place fundamental values determined by an imitative process. Namely, in forming their beliefs, speculators consider the relative profits realized by optimists and pessimists and update their fundamental values proportionally to those relative profits. Moreover, differently from the majority of the literature on the topic, the stock price is determined by a nonlinear mechanism that prevents divergence issues. For our model, we study, via analytical and numerical tools, the stability of the unique steady state, its bifurcations, as well as the emergence of complex behaviors. We also investigate multistability phenomena, characterized by the presence of coexisting attractors.

  17. On pseudo-values for regression analysis in competing risks models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graw, F; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Schumacher, M

    2009-01-01

    For regression on state and transition probabilities in multi-state models Andersen et al. (Biometrika 90:15-27, 2003) propose a technique based on jackknife pseudo-values. In this article we analyze the pseudo-values suggested for competing risks models and prove some conjectures regarding...... their asymptotics (Klein and Andersen, Biometrics 61:223-229, 2005). The key is a second order von Mises expansion of the Aalen-Johansen estimator which yields an appropriate representation of the pseudo-values. The method is illustrated with data from a clinical study on total joint replacement. In the application...... we consider for comparison the estimates obtained with the Fine and Gray approach (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) and also time-dependent solutions of pseudo-value regression equations....

  18. A Tuned Value Chain Model for University Based Public Research Organisation. Case Lut Cst.

    OpenAIRE

    Vesa Karvonen; Matti Karvonen; Andrzej Kraslawski

    2012-01-01

    The Porter´s value chain model was introduced for strategic business purposes. During the last decades also Universities and University based institutes have started to use actions similar to private business concepts. A University based institute is not independent actor like company but there are interest groups who are expecting them to act like they would be. This article discusses about the possibility of utilize tuned value chain to public research organizations (PRO). Also the interact...

  19. Does the Model of Evaluation Based on Fair Value Answer the Requests of Financial Information Users?

    OpenAIRE

    Mitea Neluta; Sarac Aldea Laura

    2010-01-01

    Does the model of evaluation based on the fair value answers the requests of the financial information users? The financial situations have as purposes the presentation of the information concerning the enterprise financial position, the performances and modifications of this position which, according to IASB and FASB, must be credible and useful. Both referential maintain the existence of several conventions regarding assessment, like historical cost, actual cost, the realizable value or act...

  20. Value Chain Model Development of Tuna and Tuna Alike In Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ateng Supriatna

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability of tuna and tuna alike fisheries depend on chain value system formed by stakeholders ranging from product fishing, processing/diversification, distribution, and marketing. The objective of this research was to create chain value system model of tuna and tuna alike fisheries, to predict the interaction pattern of stakeholders and to formulate the precise strategy to minimize the synergy resistance of chain value system development strategy of tuna and tuna alike fisheries. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM was applied to analyze the chain value model. The stakeholders/the players of tuna and tuna alike fisheries basically have positive interaction (CE>0.The negative interaction occured on retailers and consumers. Interaction of retailers with consumers is significant (p<0.05 0.01. Interaction pattern of fishermen, retailers, collectors, and exporters affected significantlly by pricing and the level of role played by the stakeholders. The strategy to minimize the sinergy resistance of chain value system development are respectivelly the strategy of involving the group of fishermen on products pricing (CE= 1,176 and P= 0,000, the strategy of involving the seller groups on products pricing (CE-PE=1,08, CE-PB= 0,766, CE EKS= 2,028 AND P= 0,000, and the strategy on guaranteeing flexible interaction between retailer and consumers (CE= 0,179 and p = 0,01.Keywords: tuna and tuna alike, interaction, tuna and tuna alike stakeholders, and value chain

  1. A Time consistent model for monetary value of man-sievert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, S.H.; Kim, Sun G.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Performing a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete stepwise model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value of Korea. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and the average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we showed different alpha values optimized with respect to various ranges of individual dose, which would be more realistic and applicable to the radiation protection area. Employing economically constant term of GDP we showed the real values of man-sievert by year, which should be consistent in time series comparison even under price level fluctuation. GDP deflators of an economy have to be applied to measure one's own consistent value of radiation protection by year. In addition, we recommend that the concept of purchasing power parity should be adopted if it needs international comparison of alpha values in real terms. Finally, we explain the way that this stepwise model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors. (author)

  2. Structural Models that Manage IT Portfolio Affecting Business Value of Enterprise Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamogawa, Takaaki

    This paper examines the structural relationships between Information Technology (IT) governance and Enterprise Architecture (EA), with the objective of enhancing business value in the enterprise society. Structural models consisting of four related hypotheses reveal the relationship between IT governance and EA in the improvement of business values. We statistically examined the hypotheses by analyzing validated questionnaire items from respondents within firms listed on the Japanese stock exchange who were qualified to answer them. We concluded that firms which have organizational ability controlled by IT governance are more likely to deliver business value based on IT portfolio management.

  3. Analytic approximations to nonlinear boundary value problems modeling beam-type nano-electromechanical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zou, Li [Dalian Univ. of Technology, Dalian City (China). State Key Lab. of Structural Analysis for Industrial Equipment; Liang, Songxin; Li, Yawei [Dalian Univ. of Technology, Dalian City (China). School of Mathematical Sciences; Jeffrey, David J. [Univ. of Western Ontario, London (Canada). Dept. of Applied Mathematics

    2017-06-01

    Nonlinear boundary value problems arise frequently in physical and mechanical sciences. An effective analytic approach with two parameters is first proposed for solving nonlinear boundary value problems. It is demonstrated that solutions given by the two-parameter method are more accurate than solutions given by the Adomian decomposition method (ADM). It is further demonstrated that solutions given by the ADM can also be recovered from the solutions given by the two-parameter method. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by solving some nonlinear boundary value problems modeling beam-type nano-electromechanical systems.

  4. A P-value model for theoretical power analysis and its applications in multiple testing procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengqing Zhang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Power analysis is a critical aspect of the design of experiments to detect an effect of a given size. When multiple hypotheses are tested simultaneously, multiplicity adjustments to p-values should be taken into account in power analysis. There are a limited number of studies on power analysis in multiple testing procedures. For some methods, the theoretical analysis is difficult and extensive numerical simulations are often needed, while other methods oversimplify the information under the alternative hypothesis. To this end, this paper aims to develop a new statistical model for power analysis in multiple testing procedures. Methods We propose a step-function-based p-value model under the alternative hypothesis, which is simple enough to perform power analysis without simulations, but not too simple to lose the information from the alternative hypothesis. The first step is to transform distributions of different test statistics (e.g., t, chi-square or F to distributions of corresponding p-values. We then use a step function to approximate each of the p-value’s distributions by matching the mean and variance. Lastly, the step-function-based p-value model can be used for theoretical power analysis. Results The proposed model is applied to problems in multiple testing procedures. We first show how the most powerful critical constants can be chosen using the step-function-based p-value model. Our model is then applied to the field of multiple testing procedures to explain the assumption of monotonicity of the critical constants. Lastly, we apply our model to a behavioral weight loss and maintenance study to select the optimal critical constants. Conclusions The proposed model is easy to implement and preserves the information from the alternative hypothesis.

  5. South Korean time trade-off values for EQ-5D health states: modeling with observed values for 101 health states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yeon-Kyeng; Nam, Hae-Sung; Chuang, Ling-Hsiang; Kim, Keon-Yeop; Yang, Hae-Kyung; Kwon, In-Sun; Kind, Paul; Kweon, Sun-Seog; Kim, Young-Tack

    2009-01-01

    This study establishes the South Korean population-based preference weights for EQ-5D based on values elicited from a representative national sample using the time trade-off (TTO) method. The data for this paper came from a South Korean EQ-5D valuation study where 1307 representative respondents were invited to participate and a total of 101 health states defined by the EQ-5D descriptive system were directly valued. Both aggregate and individual level modeling were conducted to generate values for all 243 health states defined by EQ-5D. Various regression techniques and model specifications were also examined in order to produce the best fit model. Final model selection was based on minimizing the difference between the observed and estimated value for each health state. The N3 model yielded the best fit for the observed TTO value at the aggregate level. It had a mean absolute error of 0.029 and only 15 predictions out of 101 had errors exceeding 0.05 in absolute magnitude. The study successfully establishes South Korean population-based preference weights for the EQ-5D. The value set derived here is based on a representative population sample, limiting the interpolation space and possessing better model performance. Thus, this EQ-5D value set should be given preference for use with the South Korean population.

  6. The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

  7. Business Value of Information Technology Service Quality Based on Probabilistic Business-Driven Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaka Sembiring

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The business value of information technology (IT services is often difficult to assess, especially from the point of view of a non-IT manager. This condition could severely impact organizational IT strategic decisions. Various approaches have been proposed to quantify the business value, but some are trapped in technical complexity while others misguide managers into directly and subjectively judging some technical entities outside their domain of expertise. This paper describes a method on how to properly capture both perspectives based on a  probabilistic business-driven model. The proposed model presents a procedure to calculate the business value of IT services. The model also covers IT security services and their business value as an important aspect of IT services that is not covered in previously published researches. The impact of changes in the quality of IT services on business value will also be discussed. A simulation and a case illustration are provided to show the possible application of the proposed model for a simple business process in an enterprise.

  8. On solutions of boundary value problems for model of axially symmetric quantum dots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, A.A.; Chvluunbaatar, O.; Vinitsky, S.I.; Dvoyan, K.G.; Kazaryan, E.M.; Sarkisyan, H.A.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: (author)In the framework of effective mass approximation we have considered solutions of boundary value problems with separated and nonseparated variables for models of quantum dots with axial-symmetric potentials of harmonic oscillators and confinement potentials with infinite and finite walls. For considered problems we have made comparisons of levels with low energy of discrete spectra and eigenfunctions nodes by using exact and adiabatic classification of states. Critical values of the spheroidal aspect ratio, at which the discrete spectrum of models with finite-wall potentials is transformed into a continuous one in strong dimensional quantization regime, were revealed

  9. Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

  10. Method to determine snow albedo values in the ultraviolet for radiative transfer modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwander, H; Mayer, B; Ruggaber, A; Albold, A; Seckmeyer, G; Koepke, P

    1999-06-20

    For many cases modeled and measured UV global irradiances agree to within +/-5% for cloudless conditions, provided that all relevant parameters for describing the atmosphere and the surface are well known. However, for conditions with snow-covered surfaces this agreement is usually not achievable, because on the one hand the regional albedo, which has to be used in a model, is only rarely available and on the other hand UV irradiance alters with different snow cover of the surface by as much as 50%. Therefore a method is given to determine the regional albedo values for conditions with snow cover by use of a parameterization on the basis of snow depth and snow age, routinely monitored by the weather services. An algorithm is evolved by multiple linear regression between the snow data and snow-albedo values in the UV, which are determined from a best fit of modeled and measured UV irradiances for an alpine site in Europe. The resulting regional albedo values in the case of snow are in the 0.18-0.5 range. Since the constants of the regression depend on the area conditions, they have to be adapted if the method is applied for other sites. Using the algorithm for actual cases with different snow conditions improves the accuracy of modeled UV irradiances considerably. Compared with the use of an average, constant snow albedo, the use of actual albedo values, provided by the algorithm, halves the average deviations between measured and modeled UV global irradiances.

  11. A novel business model for aggregating the values of electricity storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Xian; Delarue, Erik; D'haeseleer, William; Glachant, Jean-Michel

    2011-01-01

    Electricity storage is considered as a valuable source of flexibility with applications covering the whole electricity value chain. Most of the existing evaluation methods for electricity storage are conceived for one specific use of the storage, which often leads to the conclusion that the investment on storage does not pay off. However, the value of storage cannot be properly estimated without taking into account the possibility of aggregating the services that storage can offer to different actors. This paper proposes a new business model that allows aggregating multiple revenue streams of electricity storage in a systematic way. The model consists in coordinating a series of auctions in which the right to utilize the storage unit is auctioned upon different time horizons. In the mean time, non-conflicting usage of storage by the actors in these different auctions is ensured. The functioning of the model is demonstrated by a case study. The results show that a storage unit can achieve higher return on investment in the manner proposed in the business model. - Research highlights: → Aggregation of the benefits of storage is necessary for the cost recovery of storage facilities. → The use of storage needs to be coordinated among different actors and upon different time horizons. → The aggregation of values of storage can be achieved by implementing an auction chain. → The model proposes a viable way to aggregate both regulated and deregulated values of storage.

  12. MODELING OF THE INFLUENCE OF OPERATING INCOME ON THE VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Kaluzhskikh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of the key factors in the cost of industrial enterprise is an important tool not only for the valuation of the newly acquired companies, but also in assessing the choice of the best of the alternative strategies for the development of existing companies, since it allows to evaluate the performance of the enterprise in terms of maximizing its value. The authors study the mechanisms of allocating such factors on the basis of the indicator of added economic value, and on the basis of assessing the influence of the key factors on the cost of the business.The components forming the indicator of added economic value are presented as secondorder factors. Third-order factors reflect the influence of certain indicators of revenues and operating expenses of invested capital i.e. the elements of control by senior managers. The article highlights the performance of the third order, affecting the value of the business: operating profit (EBIT; cost of equity (Кs; value of shareholders’ equity (S; cost of debt (Кd; value of the borrowed capital (D. The article highlights the key value drivers of the company, which are interrelated parameters, which allow to valuate business and to manage its development efficiently. To form the economic and mathematical model of assessing key factors of company’s valuation, the authors used the mathematical apparatus of assessing the company’s value sensitivity to the mentioned factors. As a result, the authors developed a model assessing the influence of operating profit factor on the value of the enterprise.

  13. Applying an expectancy-value model to study motivators for work-task based information seeking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigaard, Karen Tølbøl; Skov, Mette

    2015-01-01

    for interpersonal and internal sources increased when the task had high-value motivation or low-expectancy motivation or both. Research limitations/implications: The study is based on a relatively small sample and considers only one motivation theory. This should be addressed in future research along......Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to operationalise and verify a cognitive motivation model that has been adapted to information seeking. The original model was presented within the field of psychology. Design/methodology/approach: An operationalisation of the model is presented based...... on the theory of expectancy-value and on the operationalisation used when the model was first developed. Data for the analysis were collected from a sample of seven informants working as consultants in Danish municipalities. Each participant filled out a questionnaire, kept a log book for a week...

  14. Predictive error dependencies when using pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John

    2008-01-01

    A significant practical problem with the pilot point method is to choose the location of the pilot points. We present a method that is intended to relieve the modeler from much of this responsibility. The basic idea is that a very large number of pilot points are distributed more or less uniformly...... over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the (possibly weighted) sensitivity matrix of the pilot point based model produces eigenvectors of which we pick a small number corresponding to significant eigenvalues. Super parameters are defined as factors through which parameter...... combinations corresponding to the chosen eigenvectors are multiplied to obtain the pilot point values. The model can thus be transformed from having many-pilot-point parameters to having a few super parameters that can be estimated by nonlinear regression on the basis of the available observations. (This...

  15. Site-specific parameter values for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's food pathway dose model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamby, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    Routine operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Western South Carolina result in radionuclide releases to the atmosphere and to the Savannah River. The resulting radiation doses to the off-site maximum individual and the off-site population within 80 km of the SRS are estimated on a yearly basis. These estimates are currently generated using dose models prescribed for the commercial nuclear power industry by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC provides default values for dose-model parameters for facilities without resources to develop site-specific values. A survey of land- and water-use characteristics for the Savannah River area has been conducted to determine site-specific values for water recreation, consumption, and agricultural parameters used in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 (1977) dosimetric models. These site parameters include local characteristics of meat, milk, and vegetable production; recreational and commercial activities on the Savannah River; and meat, milk, vegetable, and seafood consumption rates. This paper describes how parameter data were obtained at the Savannah River Site and the impacts of such data on off-site dose. Dose estimates using site-specific parameter values are compared to estimates using the NRC default values

  16. A Novel Mean-Value Model of the Cardiovascular System Including a Left Ventricular Assist Device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochsner, Gregor; Amacher, Raffael; Schmid Daners, Marianne

    2017-06-01

    Time-varying elastance models (TVEMs) are often used for simulation studies of the cardiovascular system with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD). Because these models are computationally expensive, they cannot be used for long-term simulation studies. In addition, their equilibria are periodic solutions, which prevent the extraction of a linear time-invariant model that could be used e.g. for the design of a physiological controller. In the current paper, we present a new type of model to overcome these problems: the mean-value model (MVM). The MVM captures the behavior of the cardiovascular system by representative mean values that do not change within the cardiac cycle. For this purpose, each time-varying element is manually converted to its mean-value counterpart. We compare the derived MVM to a similar TVEM in two simulation experiments. In both cases, the MVM is able to fully capture the inter-cycle dynamics of the TVEM. We hope that the new MVM will become a useful tool for researchers working on physiological control algorithms. This paper provides a plant model that enables for the first time the use of tools from classical control theory in the field of physiological LVAD control.

  17. USE OF THE MACROECONOMIC MODELS IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE BALANCE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana MANOLE

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of using the macroeconomic models to analyze the balance value. Actually, the analyses are performed under the IS-LM model. Since the balance value depends on the balance of goods and services market and the money market, the authors have studied the possibilities of balance on these two markets in terms of conditions from the Republic of Moldova. There is investigated the ratio of monetary mass and GDP under the law of equality of the amount of money in circulation. The case of the Republic of Moldova indicates a great increase of the monetary mass related to the GDP growth, fact that produces an inflationary effect. The interest rate is a key indicator in analyzing the balance value.

  18. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  19. Youth Work that Is of Value: Towards a Model of Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Judy; Boyce, Kim; Campbell, Jono; Harrington, John; Major, Duane; Williams, Ange

    2009-01-01

    How do funding providers make informed decisions about funding youth work programs and services? One provider in New Zealand commissioned a group of participant-researchers to explore the question "What is youth work of value?" and then develop a model of best practice. The findings have implications for both youth work practitioners and…

  20. Accounting for Co-Teaching: A Guide for Policymakers and Developers of Value-Added Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isenberg, Eric; Walsh, Elias

    2015-01-01

    We outline the options available to policymakers for addressing co-teaching in a value-added model. Building on earlier work, we propose an improvement to a method of accounting for co-teaching that treats co-teachers as teams, with each teacher receiving equal credit for co-taught students. Hock and Isenberg (2012) described a method known as the…

  1. Methods for Accounting for Co-Teaching in Value-Added Models. Working Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hock, Heinrich; Isenberg, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Isolating the effect of a given teacher on student achievement (value-added modeling) is complicated when the student is taught the same subject by more than one teacher. We consider three methods, which we call the Partial Credit Method, Teacher Team Method, and Full Roster Method, for estimating teacher effects in the presence of co-teaching.…

  2. Valuing snorkeling visits to the Florida Keys with stated and revealed preference models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy Park; J. Michael Bowker; Vernon R. Leeworthy

    2002-01-01

    Coastal coral reefs, especially in the Florida Keys, are declining at a disturbing rate. Marine ecologists and reef scientists have emphasized the importance of establishing nonmarket values of coral reefs to assess the cost effectiveness of coral reef management and remediation programs. The purpose of this paper is to develop a travel cost--contingent valuation model...

  3. The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we...

  4. Using many pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John

    2008-01-01

    over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the normal matrix is used to reduce the large number of pilot point parameters to a smaller number of so-called super parameters that can be estimated by nonlinear regression from the available observations. A number of eigenvectors...

  5. A time series model: First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1))

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simarmata, D. M.; Novkaniza, F.; Widyaningsih, Y.

    2017-07-01

    Nonnegative integer-valued time series arises in many applications. A time series model: first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive (INAR(1)) is constructed by binomial thinning operator to model nonnegative integer-valued time series. INAR (1) depends on one period from the process before. The parameter of the model can be estimated by Conditional Least Squares (CLS). Specification of INAR(1) is following the specification of (AR(1)). Forecasting in INAR(1) uses median or Bayesian forecasting methodology. Median forecasting methodology obtains integer s, which is cumulative density function (CDF) until s, is more than or equal to 0.5. Bayesian forecasting methodology forecasts h-step-ahead of generating the parameter of the model and parameter of innovation term using Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling within Gibbs sampling (ARMS), then finding the least integer s, where CDF until s is more than or equal to u . u is a value taken from the Uniform(0,1) distribution. INAR(1) is applied on pneumonia case in Penjaringan, Jakarta Utara, January 2008 until April 2016 monthly.

  6. Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkman, Elliot T

    2018-01-01

    Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

  7. Technological Innovation and Beyond: Exploring Public Value of University Inventions Based on Contingent Effectiveness Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milana, Evita; Li-Ying, Jason; Faria, Lourenco

    2017-01-01

    that are related with sustainability goals. In this paper, we apply the Contingent Effectiveness Model by Bozeman et.al. (2015) as a framework to consider the effectiveness of technology transfer from university to industry via licensing, and examine what values derive during the commercialization process...

  8. The Relationship between Civic Behavior and Civic Values: A Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Alyssa N.; Gayles, Joy Gaston; Davis, Heather A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the relationships among college students' civic values and behaviors, college culture, and college involvement, accounting for their pre-college inclinations toward civic responsibility. Using a longitudinal, national dataset comprised of 3,680 college students, the study employed structural equation modeling to identify a…

  9. The Sensitivity of Value-Added Modeling to the Creation of a Vertical Score Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Derek C.; Weeks, Jonathan P.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of growth and value-added modeling to the way an underlying vertical score scale has been created. Longitudinal item-level data were analyzed with both student- and school-level identifiers for the entire state of Colorado between 2003 and 2006. Eight different vertical scales were…

  10. Measurement Error and Bias in Value-Added Models. Research Report. ETS RR-17-25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Michael T.

    2017-01-01

    By aggregating residual gain scores (the differences between each student's current score and a predicted score based on prior performance) for a school or a teacher, value-added models (VAMs) can be used to generate estimates of school or teacher effects. It is known that random errors in the prior scores will introduce bias into predictions of…

  11. Towards a value model for collaborative, business intelligence-supported risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, L.; Daniëls, H.A.M.; Johannesson, P.

    2012-01-01

    Collaborative business intelligence supports risk assessment and in return enhances management control on a business network. Nonetheless, it needs an incentive basis in the first place before it can be implemented, that is, the value model. Starting from the managerial challenges which arise from

  12. Essential value of cocaine and food in rats: tests of the exponential model of demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Chesley J; Silberberg, Alan; Hursh, Steven R; Huntsberry, Mary E; Riley, Anthony L

    2008-06-01

    To provide a prospective test of the predictive adequacy of the exponential model of demand (Hursh and Silberberg, Psych Rev 115(1):186-198, 2008). In Experiment 1, to measure the 'essential value' (the propensity to defend consumption with changes in price) of cocaine and food in a demand analysis (functional relation between price and consumption) by means of the exponential model; in Experiment 2, to test whether the model's systematic underestimation of cocaine consumption in Experiment 1 was due to weight loss; and in Experiment 3, to evaluate the effects of cocaine on the essential value of food. In Experiment 1, demand curves for food and cocaine were determined by measuring consumption of these goods in a multiple schedule over a range of fixed ratios; in Experiment 2, a demand curve for only cocaine was determined; and in Experiment 3, demand for food was determined in the absence of cocaine. In Experiment 1, the exponential equation accommodated high portions of variance for both curves, but systematically underestimated cocaine demand; in Experiment 2, this predictive underestimation of the equation was eliminated; and in Experiment 3, the essential value of food was greater than in Experiment 1. The exponential model of demand accommodated the data variance for all cocaine and food demand curves. Compared to food, cocaine is a good of lower essential value.

  13. Subjective value of risky foods for individual domestic chicks: a hierarchical Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamori, Ai; Matsushima, Toshiya

    2010-05-01

    For animals to decide which prey to attack, the gain and delay of the food item must be integrated in a value function. However, the subjective value is not obtained by expected profitability when it is accompanied by risk. To estimate the subjective value, we examined choices in a cross-shaped maze with two colored feeders in domestic chicks. When tested by a reversal in food amount or delay, chicks changed choices similarly in both conditions (experiment 1). We therefore examined risk sensitivity for amount and delay (experiment 2) by supplying one feeder with food of fixed profitability and the alternative feeder with high- or low-profitability food at equal probability. Profitability varied in amount (groups 1 and 2 at high and low variance) or in delay (group 3). To find the equilibrium, the amount (groups 1 and 2) or delay (group 3) of the food in the fixed feeder was adjusted in a total of 18 blocks. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method was applied to a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the subjective value. Chicks undervalued the variable feeder in group 1 and were indifferent in group 2 but overvalued the variable feeder in group 3 at a population level. Re-examination without the titration procedure (experiment 3) suggested that the subjective value was not absolute for each option. When the delay was varied, the variable option was often given a paradoxically high value depending on fixed alternative. Therefore, the basic assumption of the uniquely determined value function might be questioned.

  14. EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marossy, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  15. Value-added strategy models to provide quality services in senior health business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ya-Ting; Lin, Neng-Pai; Su, Shyi; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chang, Yao-Mao; Handa, Yujiro; Khan, Hafsah Arshed Ali; Elsa Hsu, Yi-Hsin

    2017-06-20

    The rapid population aging is now a global issue. The increase in the elderly population will impact the health care industry and health enterprises; various senior needs will promote the growth of the senior health industry. Most senior health studies are focused on the demand side and scarcely on supply. Our study selected quality enterprises focused on aging health and analyzed different strategies to provide excellent quality services to senior health enterprises. We selected 33 quality senior health enterprises in Taiwan and investigated their excellent quality services strategies by face-to-face semi-structured in-depth interviews with CEO and managers of each enterprise in 2013. A total of 33 senior health enterprises in Taiwan. Overall, 65 CEOs and managers of 33 enterprises were interviewed individually. None. Core values and vision, organization structure, quality services provided, strategies for quality services. This study's results indicated four type of value-added strategy models adopted by senior enterprises to offer quality services: (i) residential care and co-residence model, (ii) home care and living in place model, (iii) community e-business experience model and (iv) virtual and physical portable device model. The common part in these four strategy models is that the services provided are elderly centered. These models offer virtual and physical integrations, and also offer total solutions for the elderly and their caregivers. Through investigation of successful strategy models for providing quality services to seniors, we identified opportunities to develop innovative service models and successful characteristics, also policy implications were summarized. The observations from this study will serve as a primary evidenced base for enterprises developing their senior market and, also for promoting the value co-creation possibility through dialogue between customers and those that deliver service. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  16. Measuring and Managing Value Co-Creation Process: Overview of Existing Theoretical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Skaržauskaitė

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose — the article is to provide a holistic view on concept of value co-creation and existing models for measuring and managing it by conducting theoretical analysis of scientific literature sources targeting the integration of various approaches. Most important and relevant results of the literature study are presented with a focus on changed roles of organizations and consumers. This article aims at contributing theoretically to the research stream of measuring co-creation of value in order to gain knowledge for improvement of organizational performance and enabling new and innovative means of value creation. Design/methodology/approach. The nature of this research is exploratory – theoretical analysis and synthesis of scientific literature sources targeting the integration of various approaches was performed. This approach was chosen due to the absence of established theory on models of co-creation, possible uses in organizations and systematic overview of tools measuring/suggesting how to measure co-creation. Findings. While the principles of managing and measuring co-creation in regards of consumer motivation and involvement are widely researched, little attempt has been made to identify critical factors and create models dealing with organizational capabilities and managerial implications of value co-creation. Systematic analysis of literature revealed a gap not only in empirical research concerning organization’s role in co-creation process, but in theoretical and conceptual levels, too. Research limitations/implications. The limitations of this work as a literature review lies in its nature – the complete reliance on previously published research papers and the availability of these studies. For a deeper understanding of co-creation management and for developing models that can be used in real-life organizations, a broader theoretical, as well as empirical, research is necessary. Practical implications. Analysis of the

  17. The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Yen-Chen; Chuang, I-Yuan; Lai, Jing-Yi

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts. (author)

  18. Representation of the Solar Capacity Value in the ReEDS Capacity Expansion Model: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, B.; Sullivan, P.; Ibanez, E.; Margolis, R.

    2014-08-01

    An important emerging issue is the estimation of renewables' contributions to reliably meeting system demand, or their capacity value. While the capacity value of thermal generation can be estimated easily, assessment of wind and solar requires a more nuanced approach due to resource variability. Reliability-based methods, particularly, effective load-carrying capacity (ELCC), are considered to be the most robust techniques for addressing this resource variability. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model and other long-term electricity capacity planning models require an approach to estimating CV for generalized PV and system configurations with low computational and data requirements. In this paper we validate treatment of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity value by ReEDS capacity expansion model by comparing model results to literature for a range of energy penetration levels. Results from the ReEDS model are found to compare well with both comparisons--despite not being resolved at an hourly scale.

  19. An improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Sheng [College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China); Qu, Xiaobo [Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Gold Coast, 4222 Australia (Australia); Xu, Cheng [Department of Transportation Management Engineering, Zhejiang Police College, Hangzhou, 310053 China (China); College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, 130022 China (China); Ma, Dongfang, E-mail: mdf2004@zju.edu.cn [Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China); Wang, Dianhai [College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China)

    2015-10-16

    This letter develops an improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow taking the higher maximum speed of electric bicycles into consideration. The update rules of both regular and electric bicycles are improved, with maximum speeds of two and three cells per second respectively. Numerical simulation results for deterministic and stochastic cases are obtained. The fundamental diagrams and multiple states effects under different model parameters are analyzed and discussed. Field observations were made to calibrate the slowdown probabilities. The results imply that the improved extended Burgers cellular automata (IEBCA) model is more consistent with the field observations than previous models and greatly enhances the realism of the bicycle traffic model. - Highlights: • We proposed an improved multi-value CA model with higher maximum speed. • Update rules are introduced for heterogeneous bicycle traffic with maximum speed 2 and 3 cells/s. • Simulation results of the proposed model are consistent with field bicycle data. • Slowdown probabilities of both regular and electric bicycles are calibrated.

  20. An improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Sheng; Qu, Xiaobo; Xu, Cheng; Ma, Dongfang; Wang, Dianhai

    2015-01-01

    This letter develops an improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow taking the higher maximum speed of electric bicycles into consideration. The update rules of both regular and electric bicycles are improved, with maximum speeds of two and three cells per second respectively. Numerical simulation results for deterministic and stochastic cases are obtained. The fundamental diagrams and multiple states effects under different model parameters are analyzed and discussed. Field observations were made to calibrate the slowdown probabilities. The results imply that the improved extended Burgers cellular automata (IEBCA) model is more consistent with the field observations than previous models and greatly enhances the realism of the bicycle traffic model. - Highlights: • We proposed an improved multi-value CA model with higher maximum speed. • Update rules are introduced for heterogeneous bicycle traffic with maximum speed 2 and 3 cells/s. • Simulation results of the proposed model are consistent with field bicycle data. • Slowdown probabilities of both regular and electric bicycles are calibrated

  1. Optimizing medical device buying. Value analysis models can help you improve decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, Josh; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Value Analysis Models (VAMs) are a burgeoning analytical tool that can help materials managers, operating room managers, CFOs and others to make comparative value assessments before reaching a critical purchasing decision. Although relatively new to the hospital field, more and more manufacturers are supporting these initiatives to bring critical information to their customers and the health care industry. VAMs aren't designed to conclude that one product is better than another but to be a tool that can help make the product acquisition process much easier.

  2. Lower bounds for ν and Q2 values leading to scaling in the simple parton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nataf, R.S.

    1979-06-01

    The simple parton model leads to the Bjorken scaling law only for rather large values of the transfer. For small values, the scale invariance is broken by a purely kinematical effect which is shown to depend on: (1+(4M 2 x 2 /Q 2 ))sup(1/2)-1, M being the mass of the target nucleon. Thus, one has to consider: ν>=5M (5GeV) and: Q 2 >=10M 2 x (9GeV/c) 2 for the whole x range) if it is demanded that scaling holds within 10% to error

  3. Values of Land and Renewable Resources in a Three-Sector Economic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Wei-Bin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies dynamic interdependence of capital, land and resource values in a three sector growth model with endogenous wealth and renewable resources. The model is based on the neoclassical growth theory, Ricardian theory and growth theory with renewable resources. The household’s decision is modeled with an alternative approach proposed by Zhang two decades ago. The economic system consists of the households, industrial, agricultural, and resource sectors. The model describes a dynamic interdependence between wealth accumulation, resource change, and division of labor under perfect competition. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of a unique stable equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. The study conducts comparative dynamic analysis with regard to changes in the propensity to consume resources, the propensity to consume housing, the propensity to consume agricultural goods, the propensity to consume industrial goods, the propensity to save, the population, and the output elasticity of capital of the resource sector.

  4. Dynamic Average-Value Modeling of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator Wind Energy Conversion Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahab, Azin

    In a Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind energy conversion system, the rotor of a wound rotor induction generator is connected to the grid via a partial scale ac/ac power electronic converter which controls the rotor frequency and speed. In this research, detailed models of the DFIG wind energy conversion system with Sinusoidal Pulse-Width Modulation (SPWM) scheme and Optimal Pulse-Width Modulation (OPWM) scheme for the power electronic converter are developed in detail in PSCAD/EMTDC. As the computer simulation using the detailed models tends to be computationally extensive, time consuming and even sometimes not practical in terms of speed, two modified approaches (switching-function modeling and average-value modeling) are proposed to reduce the simulation execution time. The results demonstrate that the two proposed approaches reduce the simulation execution time while the simulation results remain close to those obtained using the detailed model simulation.

  5. The IT Advantage Assessment Model: Applying an Expanded Value Chain Model to Academia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Walter L.; Stylianou, Antonis C.

    2004-01-01

    Academia faces an uncertain future as the 21st century unfolds. New demands, discerning students, increased competition from non-traditional competitors are just a few of the forces demanding a response. The use of information technology (IT) in academia has not kept pace with its use in industry. What has been lacking is a model for the strategic…

  6. Testing the value and life-style model (VALS of psychographic market segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Rousseau

    1990-06-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the development of a psychographic inventory suitable for testing the VALS model of market segmentation within the South African context. Hypotheses relating to value and life-style traits, suggested by prior research, are tested, utilising a sample of white and black respondents in the Johannesburg/Soweto metropolitan area. Results imply that the instrument developed has moderate reliability and can be administered bilingually. The VALS model tested by the instrument suggests that most respondents hold need-driven and outer-directed values. Impllications for value and lifestyle segmentation within the South African context are discussed. Opsomming Hierdie artikel beskryfdie ontwikkeling van 'n psigografiese inventaris geskik vir die toetsing van die VALS-model van marksegmentasie binne Suid-Afrikaanse verband. Hipoteses met betrekking tot waarde- en lewenstyltrekke, voortspruitend uit vorige navorsing, word getoets op 'n steekproef van wit en swart respondente in die Johannesburg/Soweto metropolitaanse gebied. Resultate toon dat die instrument gemiddelde betroubaarheid openbaar en toepasbaar is op 'n tweetalige grondslag. Die VALS-model soos getoets deur die instrument toon dat die meeste respondente behoefte-gedrewe en na buite gerigte waardes openbaar. Implikasies vir waarde- en lewenstylsegmentasie binne Suid-Afrikaanse verband word ook bespreek.

  7. A model to establish the monetary value of the man-sievert for public exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, T.; Schieber, C.; Eeckhoudt, L.; Godfroid, P.

    2000-01-01

    The implementation of cost-benefit analysis for the optimisation of radiation protection relies on the adoption of a monetary value of the man-sievert. From the economic point of view, the monetary value of the man-sievert can be seen as a function reflecting the individual and collective preferences associated with the level of exposures and the specificity of the exposure situations. It must thus integrate several dimensions: one dimension, which is independent of the exposure situation, is related to the potential health effects associated with the level of exposure; other dimensions are related to social and equity consideration, reflecting the characteristics of exposure situation: distribution of individual exposures, individual and social risk perception,... In the case of occupational exposure, CEPN has developed a model to define the monetary values of the man-sievert according to the level of individual exposure. This model has been used by some European nuclear utilities for setting their own values to be used in the process of radiological protection optimisation for workers. The question arising now concerns the establishment of this value for public exposure. For this purpose, we have considered one of the main differences between public and worker exposures: i.e. the existence of compensation systems for the radiation induced health effects if they occur for the workers. In the case of public exposure, such systems do not exist, mainly due to the absence of a permanent individual monitoring of exposures and to the low level of individual exposure. A theoretical model was developed to evaluate the willingness to pay to reduce the probability of occurrence of a radiation induced health effects (i.e. to reduce the level of exposure). It shows that, because of the absence of a compensation system for the public, this willingness to pay should be higher when the probability is reduced for the public than for the workers. The result of the numerical

  8. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  9. A model of determining a fair market value for teaching residents: who profits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, Edward J; Lawless, Stephen T; Hertzog, James H; Penfil, Scott; Bradford, Kathleen K; Nadkarni, Vinay M; Corddry, David H; Costarino, Andrew T

    2003-07-01

    Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Health Resources and Services Administration Children's Hospitals Graduate Medical Education (GME) Payment Program now supports freestanding children's teaching hospitals. To analyze the fair market value impact of GME payment on resident teaching efforts in our pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Cost-accounting model, developed from a 1-year retrospective, descriptive, single-institution, longitudinal study, applied to physician teachers, residents, and CMS. Sixteen-bed PICU in a freestanding, university-affiliated children's teaching hospital. Pediatric critical care physicians, second-year residents. Cost of physician opportunity time; CMS investment return; the teaching physicians' investment return; residents' investment return; service balance between CMS and teaching service investment margins; economic balance points; fair market value. GME payments to our hospital increased 4.8-fold from 577 886 dollars to 2 772 606 dollars during a 1-year period. Critical care physicians' teaching opportunity cost rose from 250 097 dollars to 262 215 dollars to provide 1523 educational hours (6853 relative value units). Residents' net financial value for service provided to the PICU rose from 245 964 dollars to 317 299 dollars. There is an uneven return on investment in resident education for CMS, critical care physicians, and residents. Economic balance points are achievable for the present educational efforts of the CMS, critical care physicians, and residents if the present direct medical education payment increases from 29.38% to 36%. The current CMS Health Resources and Services Administration Children's Hospitals GME Payment Program produces uneven investment returns for CMS, critical care physicians, and residents. We propose a cost-accounting model, based on perceived production capability measured in relative value units and available GME funds, that would allow a clinical service to balance and obtain a fair

  10. Using pharmacoeconomic modelling to determine value-based pricing for new pharmaceuticals in malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dranitsaris, George; Truter, Ilse; Lubbe, Martie S; Sriramanakoppa, Nitin N; Mendonca, Vivian M; Mahagaonkar, Sangameshwar B

    2011-10-01

    Decision analysis (DA) is commonly used to perform economic evaluations of new pharmaceuticals. Using multiples of Malaysia's per capita 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) as the threshold for economic value as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), DA was used to estimate a price per dose for bevacizumab, a drug that provides a 1.4-month survival benefit in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A decision model was developed to simulate progression-free and overall survival in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy with and without bevacizumab. Costs for chemotherapy and management of side effects were obtained from public and private hospitals in Malaysia. Utility estimates, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were determined by interviewing 24 oncology nurses using the time trade-off technique. The price per dose was then estimated using a target threshold of US$44 400 per QALY gained, which is 3 times the Malaysian per capita GDP. A cost-effective price for bevacizumab could not be determined because the survival benefit provided was insufficient According to the WHO criteria, if the drug was able to improve survival from 1.4 to 3 or 6 months, the price per dose would be $567 and $1258, respectively. The use of decision modelling for estimating drug pricing is a powerful technique to ensure value for money. Such information is of value to drug manufacturers and formulary committees because it facilitates negotiations for value-based pricing in a given jurisdiction.

  11. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  12. ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF FIRM’S VALUE IN LIQUID MARKET: CASE OF INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Agus Ardiana

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The research aims to investigate variables affecting Tobin’s Q which represents the value of public  companies listed on LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange by developing a  BLUE(Best Linear UnbiasedEstimators econometric model for cross-sectional data of 2007, 2008, and 2009 as well as panel data. The models vary across different data but there are important findings to note. Public companies listed  on LQ45 Index have experienced overliquidity problem during the period of observation leading to a decline in firm’s value. In addition, those public companies have low financial risk so they have chance to  increase their debts especially long-term debts.

  13. Estimating health state utility values from discrete choice experiments--a QALY space model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yuanyuan; Norman, Richard; Viney, Rosalie

    2014-09-01

    Using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimate health state utility values has become an important alternative to the conventional methods of Time Trade-Off and Standard Gamble. Studies using DCEs have typically used the conditional logit to estimate the underlying utility function. The conditional logit is known for several limitations. In this paper, we propose two types of models based on the mixed logit: one using preference space and the other using quality-adjusted life year (QALY) space, a concept adapted from the willingness-to-pay literature. These methods are applied to a dataset collected using the EQ-5D. The results showcase the advantages of using QALY space and demonstrate that the preferred QALY space model provides lower estimates of the utility values than the conditional logit, with the divergence increasing with worsening health states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Experimental models, protocols, and reference values for evaluation of iodinated analogues of glucose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.; Koumanov, F.; Ghezzi, C.; Mathieu, J.P.; Hamant, S.; Leiris, J. de; Comet, M.

    1995-01-01

    For an iodinated analogue of glucose to be useful for evaluating glucose uptake using single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), it must enter the cell via the same transporter as glucose and accumulate within the cell without being degraded. The biological behavior of the iodinated tracer must therefore be similar to that of 2-deoxy-d-[1- 14 C]-glucose(2-DG). In the present study, four experimental models (biodistribution in mouse, isolated rat heart, human erythrocytes in suspension and cultured neonatal rat cardiomyocytes) have been chosen and protocols have been set up which allow for the examination of small quantities of iodinated analogues of glucose. The uptakes of 2-DG and l-[1- 14 C]-glucose have been measured in these models to establish reference values which will be compared with uptake values for iodinated analogues of glucose

  15. Generation model of positional values as cell operation during the development of multicellular organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Ken-ichiro; Miyake, Yoshihiro

    2011-03-01

    Many conventional models have used the positional information hypothesis to explain each elementary process of morphogenesis during the development of multicellular organisms. Their models assume that the steady concentration patterns of morphogens formed in an extracellular environment have an important property of positional information, so-called "robustness". However, recent experiments reported that a steady morphogen pattern, the concentration gradient of the Bicoid protein, during early Drosophila embryonic development is not robust for embryo-to-embryo variability. These reports encourage a reconsideration of a long-standing problem in systematic cell differentiation: what is the entity of positional information for cells? And, what is the origin of the robust boundary of gene expression? To address these problems at a cellular level, in this article we pay attention to the re-generative phenomena that show another important property of positional information, "size invariance". In view of regenerative phenomena, we propose a new mathematical model to describe the generation mechanism of a spatial pattern of positional values. In this model, the positional values are defined as the values into which differentiable cells transform a spatial pattern providing positional information. The model is mathematically described as an associative algebra composed of various terms, each of which is the multiplication of some fundamental operators under the assumption that the operators are derived from the remarkable properties of cell differentiation on an amputation surface in regenerative phenomena. We apply this model to the concentration pattern of the Bicoid protein during the anterior-posterior axis formation in Drosophila, and consider the conditions needed to establish the robust boundary of the expression of the hunchback gene. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  17. Recommended Parameter Values for INEEL Subsurface Disposal Area Source Release Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, Robert G.; Lopresti, Charles A.

    2004-06-23

    The purpose of this report is to summarize 1) associated information and values for key release model parameters (i.e., best estimate, minimum and maximum) obtained where possible from published experimental data, 2) a structure for selection of sensitivity tests cases that can be used to identify test cases, and 3) recommended test cases for selected contaminants of potential concern to assess remedy effectiveness against a no-treatment base case.

  18. Six Conductivity Values to Use in the Bidomain Model of Cardiac Tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Barbara M

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this work is to produce a consistent set of six conductivity values for use in the bidomain model of cardiac tissue. Studies in 2007 by Hooks et al. and in 2009 by Caldwell et al. have found that, in the directions longitudinal:transverse:normal (l:t:n) to the cardiac fibers, ratios of bulk conductivities and conduction velocities are each approximately in the ratio 4:2:1. These results are used here as the basis for a method that can find sets of six normalized bidomain conductivity values. It is found that the ratios involving transverse and normal conductivities are quite consistent, allowing new light to be shed on conductivity in the normal direction. For example, it is found that the ratio of transverse to normal conductivity is much greater in the intracellular (i) than the extracellular (e) domain. Using parameter values from experimental studies leads to the proposal of a new nominal six conductivity dataset: gil=2.4, gel=2.4, git=0.35, get=2.0, gin=0.08, and gen=1.1 (all in mS/cm). When it is used to model partial thickness ischaemia, this dataset produces epicardial potential distributions in accord with experimental studies in an animal model. It is, therefore, suggested that the dataset is suitable for use in numerical simulations. Since the bidomain approach is the most commonly used method for modeling cardiac electrophysiological phenomena, new information about conductivity in the normal direction, as well as a consistent set of six conductivity values, is valuable for researchers who perform simulation studies.

  19. Developing risk prediction models for kidney injury and assessing incremental value for novel biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

    2014-08-07

    The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients' risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  20. Evolutionary Stages of e-Tailors and Retailers: Firm Value Determinants Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jae K. Lee; Heegoo Kang; Hoe K. Lee; Han S. Lee

    2002-01-01

    We have studied the evolutionary stages of pure e-tailers, click & mortar (C&M) and brick & mortar (B&M) retailers for three points of time: June 1999, June 2000, and June 2001. To evaluate the dynamic stages of e-tailing business as an innovative venture, we propose four stages: exploration, breakeven, growth, and maturity. The stages are measured by the impact of revenue and income on the firm value, and a regression model is adopted to formulate the model. To empirically examine the stages...

  1. Study of the long-term values and prices of plutonium; a simplified parametrized model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaussens, J.; Paillot, H.

    1965-01-01

    The authors define the notions of use values and price of plutonium. They give a 'simplified parametrized model' simulating the equilibrium of the offer and the demand in time, concerning the plutonium and the price deriving from the relative scarcity of this metal, taking into account the technical and economic operating parameters of the various reactors confronted. This model is simple enough to allow direct computations and establish clear relations between the various parameters. The use of the linear programmes method allows on the other hand a wide extension of the model. This report includes three main parts: I - General description of the study (without detailed calculations) II - Mathematical development of the simplified parametrized model and application (the basic data and the results of the calculations are given) III - Appendices (giving the detailed computations of part II). (authors) [fr

  2. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  3. Dynamical Behaviors in Complex-Valued Love Model With or Without Time Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Wei; Liao, Xiaofeng; Dong, Tao

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, a novel version of nonlinear model, i.e. a complex-valued love model with two time delays between two individuals in a love affair, has been proposed. A notable feature in this model is that we separate the emotion of one individual into real and imaginary parts to represent the variation and complexity of psychophysiological emotion in romantic relationship instead of just real domain, and make our model much closer to reality. This is because love is a complicated cognitive and social phenomenon, full of complexity, diversity and unpredictability, which refers to the coexistence of different aspects of feelings, states and attitudes ranging from joy and trust to sadness and disgust. By analyzing associated characteristic equation of linearized equations for our model, it is found that the Hopf bifurcation occurs when the sum of time delays passes through a sequence of critical value. Stability of bifurcating cyclic love dynamics is also derived by applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. In addition, it is also shown that, for some appropriate chosen parameters, chaotic behaviors can appear even without time delay.

  4. Testing the Circular Structure of Human Values: A Meta-Analytical Structural Equation Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Steinmetz

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Schwartz' theory of human values has found widespread interest in the social sciences. A central part of the theory is that the 10 proposed basic values (i.e., achievement, power, self-direction, hedonism, stimulation, benevolence, universalism, conformity, security, and tradition are arranged in a circular structure. The present study applies a meta-analytical structural equation modelling approach to test the circular structure. The model tested was the quasi-circumplex model, which is considered the most appropriate representation of the circular structure. Moreover, the study explores how far the circular structure varies with the used samples and methodological characteristics of the studies. The meta-analysis comprised 318 matrices with the correlations among the 10 values gathered from 88 studies and the European Social Survey (overall n = 251,239. To reduce heterogeneity across the matrices, cluster analysis was used to sort the matrices into eight clusters with a similar correlation profile and tested the circular structure in each cluster. The results showed that three clusters demonstrated a good fit with the data and an adequate match to the theoretically proposed structure. The clusters' cultural and methodological profiles indicate potential moderators of the circular structure which should be considered in future research.

  5. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  6. Daily value-at-risk modeling and forecast evaluation: The realized volatility approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Yao Wong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the main applications of conditional volatility modeling and forecasting of financial assets is the value-at-risk (VaR estimation that is used by financial institutions for reporting the daily capital in risk. It remains a question on whether realized volatility (RV models that incorporate the use of intraday data produce better VaR forecasts compared to methodologies that are based solely on daily returns. This study provides extensive comparison of out-of-sample volatility and VaR forecast performance on three equity market indices: S&P500, FTSE100, and DAX30 using 13 risk models that consist of 5 GARCH specifications, 4 ARFIMAX specifications and 4 HARX specifications. The out-of-sample volatility forecasts are evaluated by various loss functions and simple scoring procedures in order to identity the model that produces the overall best volatility forecasts. For VaR forecasts, the models are evaluated using a two-stage backtesting procedure where the models undergo unconditional and conditional coverage tests to eliminate underperforming models and the qualified models are then evaluated using the quadratic probability score (QPS function that is computed based on various VaR loss functions. The results showed that RV models outperform GARCH models for volatility forecasts, but a simple EGARCH model outperforms the rest models for most of the VaR forecasts. The results also indicated that capturing the asymmetric behavior of volatility dynamics is essential for accurate volatility and VaR forecasts. The findings of this study provide useful information for market risk regulation, financial risk management and further investigations such as extension to derivative markets and options pricing.

  7. Review of family relational stress and pediatric asthma: the value of biopsychosocial systemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Beatrice L; Miller, Bruce D; Lehman, Heather K

    2015-06-01

    Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children. Despite dramatic advances in pharmacological treatments, asthma remains a leading public health problem, especially in socially disadvantaged minority populations. Some experts believe that this health gap is due to the failure to address the impact of stress on the disease. Asthma is a complex disease that is influenced by multilevel factors, but the nature of these factors and their interrelations are not well understood. This paper aims to integrate social, psychological, and biological literatures on relations between family/parental stress and pediatric asthma, and to illustrate the utility of multilevel systemic models for guiding treatment and stimulating future research. We used electronic database searches and conducted an integrated analysis of selected epidemiological, longitudinal, and empirical studies. Evidence is substantial for the effects of family/parental stress on asthma mediated by both disease management and psychobiological stress pathways. However, integrative models containing specific pathways are scarce. We present two multilevel models, with supporting data, as potential prototypes for other such models. We conclude that these multilevel systems models may be of substantial heuristic value in organizing investigations of, and clinical approaches to, the complex social-biological aspects of family stress in pediatric asthma. However, additional systemic models are needed, and the models presented herein could serve as prototypes for model development. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  8. Assessing the antecedents of customer loyalty on healthcare insurance products: Service quality; perceived value embedded model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadi Abdelmuniem Abdelfattah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This research aim to investigate the influence of service quality attributes towards customers’ loyalty on health insurance products. In addition, this research also tested the mediation role of perceived value in between service quality and customers’ loyalty on health insurance products. Design/methodology/approach: Based on the literature review, this research developed a conceptual model of customers loyalty embedded with service quality and perceived value. The study surveyed 342 healthcare insurance customers. Apart from assessing the reliability and validity of the constructs through confirmatory factor analysis, this research also used structural equation modelling (SEM approach to test the proposed hypothesis. Findings: The results from the inferential statistics revealed that the healthcare insurance customers are highly influenced by service quality followed by the perceived value in reaching their loyalty towards a particular health insurance service provider. Research limitations/implications: The sample for this study is based on health insurance customers only and it is suggested that future studies enlarge the scope to include others type of customers of different insurance products. Practical implications: In order to encourage the customers to more loyal towards their service providers, this research will add value for the mangers to understand the items of service quality and considering the perceived value of the target customers in order to optimize their loyalty. As whole, the outcome of this research will assist managers for better understanding of the customers’ loyalty antecedents under the perspective of healthcare insurance products. Originality/value: This paper has tried to provide a comprehensive understanding about customers’ loyalty under the perspective of service quality and perceived values context in the Malaysian health care insurance industry. Since there was a lack of such research in

  9. Decision model incorporating utility theory and measurement of social values applied to nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litchfield, J.W.; Hansen, J.V.; Beck, L.C.

    1975-07-01

    A generalized computer-based decision analysis model was developed and tested. Several alternative concepts for ultimate disposal have already been developed; however, significant research is still required before any of these can be implemented. To make a choice based on technical estimates of the costs, short-term safety, long-term safety, and accident detection and recovery requires estimating the relative importance of each of these factors or attributes. These relative importance estimates primarily involve social values and therefore vary from one individual to the next. The approach used was to sample various public groups to determine the relative importance of each of the factors to the public. These estimates of importance weights were combined in a decision analysis model with estimates, furnished by technical experts, of the degree to which each alternative concept achieves each of the criteria. This model then integrates the two separate and unique sources of information and provides the decision maker with information as to the preferences and concerns of the public as well as the technical areas within each concept which need further research. The model can rank the alternatives using sampled public opinion and techno-economic data. This model provides a decision maker with a structured approach to subdividing complex alternatives into a set of more easily considered attributes, measuring the technical performance of each alternative relative to each attribute, estimating relevant social values, and assimilating quantitative information in a rational manner to estimate total value for each alternative. Because of the explicit nature of this decision analysis, the decision maker can select a specific alternative supported by clear documentation and justification for his assumptions and estimates. (U.S.)

  10. Societal value of stem cell therapy in stroke--a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Johanna; Ghatnekar, Ola; Lindgren, Arne; Lindvall, Olle; Norrving, Bo; Persson, Ulf; Kokaia, Zaal

    2012-01-01

    Stroke is one of the major causes of disability in the adult population and represents a heavy social and economic burden. Currently available therapeutic tools to support the recovery of impaired brain functions are quite limited. Animal studies have demonstrated that neuronal replacement and partial reconstruction of neural circuitry or modulation of the recovery process is possible with cell transplantation in the damaged adult brain. Stem cell therapy (SCT) may promote functional recovery also in stroke patients, thereby improving quality of life and reducing costs. Our aim was to estimate the potential societal value of SCT in stroke patients. We created a decision-analytic model in Microsoft Excel 2010 to assess life-long costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of SCT versus standard care for stroke patients from a societal perspective. The model structure consisted of 7 health states in accordance with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). We modeled for age (55, 65, and 75 years), functional status at discharge (mRS 2, 3, and 4), effectiveness of SCT (50 and 25% increase in the probability to improve 1 mRS grade), mode of stem cell administration, risk of recurrent stroke, complications of intervention, and use of immunosuppressive drugs. The difference between an assumed societal willingness to pay for a QALY gain in Sweden (110,400 USD) and the cost per QALY gain resulting from the model was interpreted as the value of SCT. Increased survival (1.06 life years) and improved functional status gave rise to an estimated gain of 1.34 QALY in a cohort of patients aged 55 with mRS 2 at hospital discharge. Although the SCT intervention increased costs by 64,014 USD (excluding cost of stem cells), the costs of intervention were offset mainly by decreased productivity losses. In total, the intervention saved 19,055 USD, i.e., at a price of 19,055 USD for stem cells, the SCT would be cost neutral. The societal value of SCT was 166,500 USD. The application of the

  11. Konsolidierte Datenmodellierung von Versorgungsdaten mit dem Entity-Attribute-Value-Modell und Data Vault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rauch, Jens

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Distributed and heterogeneous data must be integrated for health services research in a way, which is open to new requirements and easily expandable for new data sources. For data integration in the health services research domain, mainly data warehouses have been used that model data either as a dimensional or an entity-attribute-value (EAV model. However, these data models are either not flexible enough or lack data management capabilities, which makes longitudinal data analyses more difficult. We have extended the EAV approach with data vault modelling and hereby modelled the data structures of the hospital quality reports by the Gemeinsamer Bundesauschuss (G-BA and integrated data from the years 2011 to 2015 accordingly. This makes it possible to historicise metadata of features, in particular those of quality indicators, and establishes a high degree of extensibility towards new heterogeneous data sources. The proposed approach allows a free selection of the abstraction level for the entities to be modelled, so that a completely generic EAV model with historicised metadata can be created.

  12. Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

    2015-09-01

    Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

  13. Just value of the Tactebel energy: an valuation from the main models of pricing asset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Campos

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the current fair value of Tractebel Energia, from the main asset pricing models. The company was taken as the object due to its stable growth and the ease of obtaining data, since it is located in the city of Florianopolis. Nevertheless, the volatility in its shares has been priced aroused interest. Therefore, this study intended to provide subsidy for the decision making of investors regarding the purchase or sale of company stock. For this, the theoretical treat on the concept of asset valuation and the main models available, emphasizing their applications and limitations, which are: assessment book on, discounted dividend model and discounted cash flow. Regarding the methodological aspect, the research fits into exploratory, descriptive, highly quantitative field study and case. Moreover, it was made use of desk research, literature, interview and program Economática. Thus, the analysis of data initially sought to raise the assumptions demanded by each of the models surveyed ad apply them. The results were then compared and adjusted so that there is consistency. He was later adopted an arithmetic mean to assign a fair value to the company. From this average was defined as an acceptance range, depending on the variability of results and uncertainty in the estimates.

  14. Time-driven activity-based costing: A dynamic value assessment model in pediatric appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

    2017-06-01

    Healthcare reform policies are emphasizing value-based healthcare delivery. We hypothesize that time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) can be used to appraise healthcare interventions in pediatric appendicitis. Triage-based standing delegation orders, surgical advanced practice providers, and a same-day discharge protocol were implemented to target deficiencies identified in our initial TDABC model. Post-intervention process maps for a hospital episode were created using electronic time stamp data for simple appendicitis cases during February to March 2016. Total personnel and consumable costs were determined using TDABC methodology. The post-intervention TDABC model featured 6 phases of care, 33 processes, and 19 personnel types. Our interventions reduced duration and costs in the emergency department (-41min, -$23) and pre-operative floor (-57min, -$18). While post-anesthesia care unit duration and costs increased (+224min, +$41), the same-day discharge protocol eliminated post-operative floor costs (-$306). Our model incorporating all three interventions reduced total direct costs by 11% ($2753.39 to $2447.68) and duration of hospitalization by 51% (1984min to 966min). Time-driven activity-based costing can dynamically model changes in our healthcare delivery as a result of process improvement interventions. It is an effective tool to continuously assess the impact of these interventions on the value of appendicitis care. II, Type of study: Economic Analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The finite and large-N behaviors of independent-value matrix models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben Geloun, Joseph, E-mail: jbengeloun@perimeterinstitute.ca [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline St N, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada); International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications, ICMPA–UNESCO Chair, 072 B.P. 50 Cotonou, Republic of Benin (Benin); Klauder, John R., E-mail: klauder@phys.ufl.edu [Department of Physics and Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611-8440 (United States)

    2014-03-15

    We investigate the finite and large N behaviors of independent-value O(N)-invariant matrix models. These are models defined with matrix-type fields and with no gradient term in their action. They are generically nonrenormalizable but can be handled by nonperturbative techniques. We find that the functional integral of any O(N) matrix trace invariant may be expressed in terms of an O(N)-invariant measure. Based on this result, we prove that, in the limit that all interaction coupling constants go to zero, any interacting theory is continuously connected to a pseudo-free theory. This theory differs radically from the familiar free theory consisting in putting the coupling constants to zero in the initial action. The proof is given for generic, finite-size matrix models, whereas, in the limiting case N → ∞, we succeed in showing this behavior for restricted types of actions using a particular scaling of the parameters.

  16. An investigation of factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values based on the system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Tian-Syung; Chen, Kai-Ling; Chen, Pin-Chang; Ku, Chao-Tai; Chiu, Pei-Hsuan; Wang, Meng-Hsiang

    2014-01-01

    This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student's personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students' peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students' amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students' high-calorie diets.

  17. Dynamic Value at Risk: A Comparative Study Between Heteroscedastic Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lamartine Távora Junior

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper was to analyze the risk management of a portfolio composed by Petrobras PN, Telemar PN and Vale do Rio Doce PNA stocks. It was verified if the modeling of Value-at-Risk (VaR through the place Monte Carlo simulation with volatility of GARCH family is supported by hypothesis of efficient market. The results have shown that the statistic evaluation in inferior to dynamics, evidencing that the dynamic analysis supplies support to the hypothesis of efficient market of the Brazilian share holding market, in opposition of some empirical evidences. Also, it was verified that the GARCH models of volatility is enough to accommodate the variations of the shareholding Brazilian market, since the model is capable to accommodate the great dynamic of the Brazilian market.

  18. Designing Organizational Effectiveness Model of Selected Iraq’s Sporting Federations Based on Competing Values Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Eydi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was designing effectiveness model of selected Iraq sport federations based on competing values framework. Statistical society of present study included 221 subjects ranging from chairmen, expert staffs, national adolescent athletes, and national referees. 180 subjects (81.4 percent answered standard questionnaire of Eydi et al (2011 with five Likert values scale. Content and face validity of this tool was confirmed by 12 academic professors and its reliability was validated by Cronbach's alpha (r = 0.97. Results of Structural Equation Model (SEM based on path analysis method showed that factors of expert human resources(0.88, organizational interaction (0.88, productivity (0.87, employees' cohesion (0.84, planning (0.84, organizational stability (0.81, flexibility (0.78, and organizational resources (0.74 had the most effects on organizational effectiveness.Also, findings of factor analysis showed that patterns of internal procedures and rational goals were main patterns of competing values framework and determinants of organizational effectiveness in Iraq's selected sport federations. Moreover, federations of football, track and field, weightlifting, and basketball had the highest mean of organizational effectiveness, respectively. Hence, Iraq sport federations mainly focused on organizational control, and internal attention as index of OE.

  19. Macaque monkeys can learn token values from human models through vicarious reward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevacqua, Sara; Cerasti, Erika; Falcone, Rossella; Cervelloni, Milena; Brunamonti, Emiliano; Ferraina, Stefano; Genovesio, Aldo

    2013-01-01

    Monkeys can learn the symbolic meaning of tokens, and exchange them to get a reward. Monkeys can also learn the symbolic value of a token by observing conspecifics but it is not clear if they can learn passively by observing other actors, e.g., humans. To answer this question, we tested two monkeys in a token exchange paradigm in three experiments. Monkeys learned token values through observation of human models exchanging them. We used, after a phase of object familiarization, different sets of tokens. One token of each set was rewarded with a bit of apple. Other tokens had zero value (neutral tokens). Each token was presented only in one set. During the observation phase, monkeys watched the human model exchange tokens and watched them consume rewards (vicarious rewards). In the test phase, the monkeys were asked to exchange one of the tokens for food reward. Sets of three tokens were used in the first experiment and sets of two tokens were used in the second and third experiments. The valuable token was presented with different probabilities in the observation phase during the first and second experiments in which the monkeys exchanged the valuable token more frequently than any of the neutral tokens. The third experiments examined the effect of unequal probabilities. Our results support the view that monkeys can learn from non-conspecific actors through vicarious reward, even a symbolic task like the token-exchange task.

  20. Profit-Based Model Selection for Customer Retention Using Individual Customer Lifetime Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Óskarsdóttir, María; Baesens, Bart; Vanthienen, Jan

    2018-03-01

    The goal of customer retention campaigns, by design, is to add value and enhance the operational efficiency of businesses. For organizations that strive to retain their customers in saturated, and sometimes fast moving, markets such as the telecommunication and banking industries, implementing customer churn prediction models that perform well and in accordance with the business goals is vital. The expected maximum profit (EMP) measure is tailored toward this problem by taking into account the costs and benefits of a retention campaign and estimating its worth for the organization. Unfortunately, the measure assumes fixed and equal customer lifetime value (CLV) for all customers, which has been shown to not correspond well with reality. In this article, we extend the EMP measure to take into account the variability in the lifetime values of customers, thereby basing it on individual characteristics. We demonstrate how to incorporate the heterogeneity of CLVs when CLVs are known, when their prior distribution is known, and when neither is known. By taking into account individual CLVs, our proposed approach of measuring model performance gives novel insights when deciding on a customer retention campaign. The method is dependent on the characteristics of the customer base as is compliant with modern business analytics and accommodates the data-driven culture that has manifested itself within organizations.

  1. The reference model of supply chain operational controlling in value management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The systemic approach of the controlling function to supporting the operations management results from its complex analysis of the supply chain business and operating results and from influencing the operations management factors - products, processes and resources that determine the achieved result (revenues, costs, profitability and assets turnover as well as the return on invested capital. All product features which stand for customer value and its competitiveness are the basis for designing, planning and controlling the interconnected processes responsible for manufacturing and delivery of products. The effectiveness of methods applied in developing products, processes and resources depends on the precise analysis and appraisal of the operating conditions that justify their application. Supporting the operations management, focused on the product value and improving the company's financial result, apart from financial, technical and economic analyses requires transferring the product value to activities control methods and to developing the resources in the product supply chain already at the stage of planning. As a result of an analysis of requirements supporting the development of processes and resources in the supply chain, a reference model of operational controlling in product value management was developed. The multicriterion selection and appropriate application of material flow management methods in the supply chain is each time preceded by an operating and financial analysis as well as by an appraisal of operating conditions that influence the choice of control methods.

  2. Subject-independent modeling and representation data on the formation and distribution of innovative value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frolov Aleksey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Creating an innovation environment is shown in the context of interaction of economic agents in the creation and consumption of innovative value-based infrastructure approach. The problem of the complexity of collecting heterogeneous data on the formation and distribution of innovative value in the conditions of the dynamic nature of the research object and the environment is formulated. An information model providing a subject-independent representation of data on innovation value flows is proposed and allows to automate the processes of data collection and analysis with the minimization of time costs. The article was prepared in the course of carrying out research work within the framework of the project part of the state task in the field of scientific activity in accordance with the assignment 26.2758.2017 / 4.6 for 2017-2019. on the topic “System for analyzing the formation and distribution of the value of innovative products based on the infrastructure concept”.

  3. Using hedonic property models to value public water bodies: An analysis of specification issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Nicholas Z.

    2009-01-01

    The hedonic literature has established that public water bodies provide external benefits that are reflected in the value of nearby residential real estate. The literature has employed several approaches to quantify these nonmarket services. With a residential hedonic model, this paper tests whether model specification affects resource valuation using an actively managed reservoir in Indiana and a passively managed lake in Connecticut. The results indicate that valuation is quite sensitive to model specification and that omitting either the waterview or waterfront variables from the hedonic function likely results in a misspecified model. The findings from this study are important for researchers and public agencies charged with managing water resources to bear in mind as the external benefits from existing or proposed man-made lakes and reservoirs are estimated. Therefore, while it requires considerably more effort to determine which properties are in waterfront locations and which properties have a view, the potential mispecification of "distance-only" models likely justifies these extra research costs. Further, the findings in this analysis call into question results from distance-only models in the literature.

  4. Recommended Parameter Values for GENII Modeling of Radionuclides in Routine Air and Water Releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hay, Tristan R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-11-01

    The GENII v2 code is used to estimate dose to individuals or populations from the release of radioactive materials into air or water. Numerous parameter values are required for input into this code. User-defined parameters cover the spectrum from chemical data, meteorological data, agricultural data, and behavioral data. This document is a summary of parameter values that reflect conditions in the United States. Reasonable regional and age-dependent data is summarized. Data availability and quality varies. The set of parameters described address scenarios for chronic air emissions or chronic releases to public waterways. Considerations for the special tritium and carbon-14 models are briefly addressed. GENIIv2.10.0 is the current software version that this document supports.

  5. The Optimal Dividend Payout Model with Terminal Values and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiankang Luo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For some firms with large nonliquid assets, preferred shareholders can still get back a little bit of money when the firms finish disbursement of loans at the status of bankruptcy. For such a situation, to investigate the optimal dividend policy, a stochastic dynamic dividend model with nonzero terminal bankruptcy values is put forward in this paper. Moreover, an analytic solution for the optimal objective function of the discounted dividends is provided and verified. An important application of this result is that it can be employed to construct the solution for the optimal value function on the dividend problem with bailouts at bankruptcy. Further, the relationship for the solutions of these two different problems is demonstrated. In the end, some numerical examples are provided to support our theoretical results and the corresponding economic interpretations are illustrated.

  6. Global unitary fixing and matrix-valued correlations in matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, Stephen L.; Horwitz, Lawrence P.

    2003-01-01

    We consider the partition function for a matrix model with a global unitary invariant energy function. We show that the averages over the partition function of global unitary invariant trace polynomials of the matrix variables are the same when calculated with any choice of a global unitary fixing, while averages of such polynomials without a trace define matrix-valued correlation functions, that depend on the choice of unitary fixing. The unitary fixing is formulated within the standard Faddeev-Popov framework, in which the squared Vandermonde determinant emerges as a factor of the complete Faddeev-Popov determinant. We give the ghost representation for the FP determinant, and the corresponding BRST invariance of the unitary-fixed partition function. The formalism is relevant for deriving Ward identities obeyed by matrix-valued correlation functions

  7. The Emerging Business Models and Value Proposition of Mobile Health Clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aung, Khin-Kyemon; Hill, Caterina; Bennet, Jennifer; Song, Zirui; Oriol, Nancy E

    2015-12-01

    Mobile health clinics are increasingly used to deliver healthcare to urban and rural populations. An estimated 2000 vehicles in the United States are now delivering between 5 and 6 million visits annually; however, despite this growth, mobile health clinics represent an underutilized resource that could transform the way healthcare is delivered, especially in underserved areas. Preliminary research has shown that mobile health clinics have the potential to reduce costs and improve health outcomes. Their value lies primarily in their mobility, their ability to be flexibly deployed and customized to fit the evolving needs of populations and health systems, and their ability to link clinical and community settings. Few studies have identified how mobile health clinics can be sustainably utilized. We discuss the value proposition of mobile health clinics and propose 3 potential business models for them-adoption by accountable care organizations, payers, and employers.

  8. The value of windpower: An investigation using a qualified production cost model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Miller, A.H.

    1993-07-01

    As part of the US Department of Energy's Wind Energy Program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we are using the Environmental Defense Fund's Electric Utility Financial ampersand Production Cost Model (Elfin) as a tool to determine the value of wind energy to specific utilities. The cases we have developed exercise a number of options in the way in which wind energy is treated: (1) as a load modifer (negative load); (2) as a quick-start supply-side resource with hourly varying output; and (3) probabilistically, using time-varying Weibull distributions. By using two wind speed distributions, two different wind turbines, and two different utilities, we show what the wind turbine cost/kW might be that results in a positive value of wind energy for these utilities

  9. A Flexible Nonlinear Modelling Framework for Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology and Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, A. J.

    2009-12-01

    Parameters in a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time, or is dependent on time, then the GEV-CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Due to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV-CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. A hierarchy of models can be defined by adjusting three aspects of the GEV-CDN model architecture: (i) by specifying either a linear or a nonlinear hidden-layer activation function; (ii) by adjusting the number of hidden-layer nodes; or (iii) by disconnecting weights leading to output-layer nodes. To illustrate, five GEV-CDN models are shown here in order of increasing complexity for the case of a single covariate, which, in this case, is assumed to be time. The shape parameter is assumed to be constant in all models, although this is not a requirement of the GEV-CDN framework.

  10. On the value of water quality data and informative flow states in karst modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Andreo, Bartolomé

    2017-11-01

    If properly applied, karst hydrological models are a valuable tool for karst water resource management. If they are able to reproduce the relevant flow and storage processes of a karst system, they can be used for prediction of water resource availability when climate or land use are expected to change. A common challenge to apply karst simulation models is the limited availability of observations to identify their model parameters. In this study, we quantify the value of information when water quality data (NO3- and SO42-) is used in addition to discharge observations to estimate the parameters of a process-based karst simulation model at a test site in southern Spain. We use a three-step procedure to (1) confine an initial sample of 500 000 model parameter sets by discharge and water quality observations, (2) identify alterations of model parameter distributions through the confinement, and (3) quantify the strength of the confinement for the model parameters. We repeat this procedure for flow states, for which the system discharge is controlled by the unsaturated zone, the saturated zone, and the entire time period including times when the spring is influenced by a nearby river. Our results indicate that NO3- provides the most information to identify the model parameters controlling soil and epikarst dynamics during the unsaturated flow state. During the saturated flow state, SO42- and discharge observations provide the best information to identify the model parameters related to groundwater processes. We found reduced parameter identifiability when the entire time period is used as the river influence disturbs parameter estimation. We finally show that most reliable simulations are obtained when a combination of discharge and water quality date is used for the combined unsaturated and saturated flow states.

  11. Can Shell-Model Predict Cluster-Decay Q-Values?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delion, D.; Sandulescu, A.

    2000-01-01

    The general belief is that all the information concerning α and heavy-cluster decay is practically included in the barrier penetration because it depends exponentially on the Q-value and on the other hand the formation probability has a smooth behaviour versus the mass number. In all calculations the Q-values are taken as experimental numbers. To our knowledge up to now no attempts were done to connect the Q-value with the microscopic cluster formation probability. In this lecture we show that this connection can be performed using the fact that any cluster-decaying state is a resonance. It is shown that, by including the continuum part of the single particle spectrum, the shell model is able to reproduce cluster-decay widths. The diagonalization of the mean field is performed using a relative small single particle basis with two harmonic oscillator parameters. The first part of the basis is connected with the bound states while the second one with the states in continuum. The microscopic cluster formation amplitude and outgoing Coulomb wave function should have the same logarithmic derivative beyond the nuclear surface, for a given energy. Therefore this condition predicts in principle cluster-decay Q-value. This is equivalent to the 'plateau condition': the independence of the cluster decay width versus the channel radius. The dependence of the asymptotic tail of single particle states on mass number along a neutron chain, necessary to fulfil the plateau condition, can be induced by the second expansion ho parameter. This is based on the observation that Q-value decreases with increasing neutron number. Therefore the second term of the expansion, connected with the states in continuum, which mainly influences the cluster formation, should be more bound. This procedure is performed without changing the standard Woods-Saxon potential and the first ho expansion parameter, connected with the spectroscopic properties. The dependence of the second ho parameter versus

  12. A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  13. Islamic value to the modification of BSC model (a case study in evaluating company performance)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati; Permana, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Halal is the key word for the Muslim community in consuming goods or services. Providing halal products is the main focus for companies with the largest consumers from the Muslim community. Halal is not only from the ingredients but also from the process in its production. The purpose of this study is to design a model of performance measurement for a company in order to provide halal products. Balance Score Card (BSC) is used as a framework. BSC as a performance measurement system has advantages not only focus on financial aspect but also non finance. Islamic values are incorporated into four perspective of BSC. They are: Selection of sharia financial institutions in financial perspective, payment method by consumer in consumer perspective, number of product with halal certificate and menu clarify in internal business process perspective, then accuracy of payroll time in learning and growth perspective. The modified BSC model obtains 17 Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The model is applied in a culinary industry (restaurant). Structured questionnaires and scheduled interviews are used to collect the important data. The result show that these industry fail to meet 8 from total 17 KPI so performance achievement is only 70.81%, and only reach 22.58% in Islamic value aspect. This is recorded by the company as an input to improve their performance in order to compete in halal food business.

  14. The value of information for woodland management: Updating a state–transition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, William K.; Runge, Michael C.; Vesk, Peter A.

    2017-01-01

    Value of information (VOI) analyses reveal the expected benefit of reducing uncertainty to a decision maker. Most ecological VOI analyses have focused on population models rarely addressing more complex community models. We performed a VOI analysis for a complex state–transition model of Box-Ironbark Forest and Woodland management. With three management alternatives (limited harvest/firewood removal (HF), ecological thinning (ET), and no management), managing the system optimally (for 150 yr) with the original information would, on average, increase the amount of forest in a desirable state from 19% to 35% (a 16-percentage point increase). Resolving all uncertainty would, on average, increase the final percentage to 42% (a 19-percentage point increase). However, only resolving the uncertainty for a single parameter was worth almost two-thirds the value of resolving all uncertainty. We found the VOI to depend on the number of management options, increasing as the management flexibility increased. Our analyses show it is more cost-effective to monitor low-density regrowth forest than other states and more cost-effective to experiment with the no-management alternative than the other management alternatives. Importantly, the most cost-effective strategies did not include either the most desired forest states or the least understood management strategy, ET. This implies that managers cannot just rely on intuition to tell them where the most VOI will lie, as critical uncertainties in a complex system are sometimes cryptic.

  15. A CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment.

  16. Fault diagnostics in power transformer model winding for different alpha values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Transient overvoltages appearing at line terminal of power transformer HV windings can cause failure of winding insulation. The failure can be from winding to ground or between turns or sections of winding. In most of the cases, failure from winding to ground can be detected by changes in the wave shape of surge voltage appearing at line terminal. However, detection of insulation failure between turns may be difficult due to intricacies involved in identifications of faults. In this paper, simulation investigations carried out on a power transformer model winding for identifying faults between turns of winding has been reported. The power transformer HV winding has been represented by 8 sections, 16 sections and 24 sections. Neutral current waveform has been analyzed for same model winding represented by different number of sections. The values of α (‘α’ value is the square root of total ground capacitance to total series capacitance of winding considered for windings are 5, 10 and 20. Standard lightning impulse voltage (1.2/50 μs wave shape have been considered for analysis. Computer simulations have been carried out using software PSPICE version 10.0. Neutral current and frequency response analysis methods have been used for identification of faults within sections of transformer model winding.

  17. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. The value of soil respiration measurements for interpreting and modeling terrestrial carbon cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Claire L.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Desai, Ankur R.; Lavoie, Martin; Risk, Dave; Tang, Jianwu; Todd-Brown, Katherine; Vargas, Rodrigo

    2016-11-16

    A recent acceleration of model-data synthesis activities has leveraged many terrestrial carbon (C) datasets, but utilization of soil respiration (RS) data has not kept pace with other types such as eddy covariance (EC) fluxes and soil C stocks. Here we argue that RS data, including non-continuous measurements from survey sampling campaigns, have unrealized value and should be utilized more extensively and creatively in data synthesis and modeling activities. We identify three major challenges in interpreting RS data, and discuss opportunities to address them. The first challenge is that when RS is compared to ecosystem respiration (RECO) measured from EC towers, it is not uncommon to find substantial mismatch, indicating one or both flux methodologies are unreliable. We argue the most likely cause of mismatch is unreliable EC data, and there is an unrecognized opportunity to utilize RS for EC quality control. The second challenge is that RS integrates belowground heterotrophic (RH) and autotrophic (RA) activity, whereas modelers generally prefer partitioned fluxes, and few models include an explicit RS output. Opportunities exist to use the total RS flux for data assimilation and model benchmarking methods rather than less-certain partitioned fluxes. Pushing for more experiments that not only partition RS but also monitor the age of RA and RH, as well as for the development of belowground RA components in models, would allow for more direct comparison between measured and modeled values. The third challenge is that soil respiration is generally measured at a very different resolution than that needed for comparison to EC or ecosystem- to global-scale models. Measuring soil fluxes with finer spatial resolution and more extensive coverage, and downscaling EC fluxes to match the scale of RS, will improve chamber and tower comparisons. Opportunities also exist to estimate RH at regional scales by implementing decomposition functional types, akin to plant functional

  19. 8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frew, Bethany A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve demand over the evolution of many years or decades. Various CEM formulations are used to evaluate systems ranging in scale from states or utility service territories to national or multi-national systems. CEMs can be computationally complex, and to achieve acceptable solve times, key parameters are often estimated using simplified methods. In this paper, we focus on two of these key parameters associated with the integration of variable generation (VG) resources: capacity value and curtailment. We first discuss common modeling simplifications used in CEMs to estimate capacity value and curtailment, many of which are based on a representative subset of hours that can miss important tail events or which require assumptions about the load and resource distributions that may not match actual distributions. We then present an alternate approach that captures key elements of chronological operation over all hours of the year without the computationally intensive economic dispatch optimization typically employed within more detailed operational models. The updated methodology characterizes the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load and net load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the potential reductions in curtailments enabled through deployment of storage and more flexible operation of select thermal generators. We apply this alternate methodology to an existing CEM, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). Results demonstrate that this alternate approach provides more accurate estimates of capacity value and curtailments by explicitly capturing system interactions across all hours of the year. This approach could be applied more broadly to CEMs at many different scales where hourly resource and load data is available, greatly improving the representation of challenges

  20. Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Bebi, Peter; Bishop, Ian D; Schmid, Willy A

    2008-11-01

    Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the "Landschaft Davos", an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.

  1. Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annibal Parracho Sant'Anna

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies strategies to access customer lifetime value (CLV. Traditionally, heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM are used to determine the best customers. Here, some forms of directly exploring these parameters to predict CLV are compared to an approach based on fitting a stochastic model. The model employed is a composition of a model for the number of transactions along the residual lifetime and a model for the value spent. New evidence is raised on the effect of aggregating transactions monthly. The data analyzed refer to two years of purchases of a group of customers of the same entrance cohort of a fidelity program cadastre of a supermarkets network in Rio de Janeiro. Using the first year to calibrate and the second year to validate the models, good fit of both models to the series of individual data and coherent CLV predictions are obtained.Este artigo estuda estratégias para avaliar o valor do tempo de vida do cliente (CLV. Tradicionalmente, heurísticas baseadas em variáveis medindo recência, freqüência e valor monetário (RFM são utilizadas para determinar os melhores clientes. Aqui, algumas formas de explorar diretamente estes parâmetros para predizer o CLV são comparadas com uma abordagem baseada no ajustamento de um modelo estocástico. O modelo utilizado é uma composição de um modelo para o número de transações ao longo da vida útil residual e um modelo para o valor gasto. Nova evidência é levantada sobre o efeito de agregação das transações mensalmente. Os dados analisados referem-se a dois anos da compras de um grupo de clientes da mesma coorte de ingresso no cadastro de um programa de fidelidade de uma rede de supermercados do Rio de Janeiro. Usando o primeiro ano para calibrar e o segundo ano para validar os modelos, bom ajuste dos dois modelos para as séries de dados individuais e previsões coerentes para o CLV são obtidas.

  2. Random walkers with extreme value memory: modelling the peak-end rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Rosemary J.

    2015-05-01

    Motivated by the psychological literature on the ‘peak-end rule’ for remembered experience, we perform an analysis within a random walk framework of a discrete choice model where agents’ future choices depend on the peak memory of their past experiences. In particular, we use this approach to investigate whether increased noise/disruption always leads to more switching between decisions. Here extreme value theory illuminates different classes of dynamics indicating that the long-time behaviour is dependent on the scale used for reflection; this could have implications, for example, in questionnaire design.

  3. Multiple imputation of missing values was not necessary before performing a longitudinal mixed-model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twisk, Jos; de Boer, Michiel; de Vente, Wieke; Heymans, Martijn

    2013-09-01

    As a result of the development of sophisticated techniques, such as multiple imputation, the interest in handling missing data in longitudinal studies has increased enormously in past years. Within the field of longitudinal data analysis, there is a current debate on whether it is necessary to use multiple imputations before performing a mixed-model analysis to analyze the longitudinal data. In the current study this necessity is evaluated. The results of mixed-model analyses with and without multiple imputation were compared with each other. Four data sets with missing values were created-one data set with missing completely at random, two data sets with missing at random, and one data set with missing not at random). In all data sets, the relationship between a continuous outcome variable and two different covariates were analyzed: a time-independent dichotomous covariate and a time-dependent continuous covariate. Although for all types of missing data, the results of the mixed-model analysis with or without multiple imputations were slightly different, they were not in favor of one of the two approaches. In addition, repeating the multiple imputations 100 times showed that the results of the mixed-model analysis with multiple imputation were quite unstable. It is not necessary to handle missing data using multiple imputations before performing a mixed-model analysis on longitudinal data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  5. SOA-Based Model for Value-Added ITS Services Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Felipe Herrera-Quintero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Integration is currently a key factor in intelligent transportation systems (ITS, especially because of the ever increasing service demands originating from the ITS industry and ITS users. The current ITS landscape is made up of multiple technologies that are tightly coupled, and its interoperability is extremely low, which limits ITS services generation. Given this fact, novel information technologies (IT based on the service-oriented architecture (SOA paradigm have begun to introduce new ways to address this problem. The SOA paradigm allows the construction of loosely coupled distributed systems that can help to integrate the heterogeneous systems that are part of ITS. In this paper, we focus on developing an SOA-based model for integrating information technologies (IT into ITS to achieve ITS service delivery. To develop our model, the ITS technologies and services involved were identified, catalogued, and decoupled. In doing so, we applied our SOA-based model to integrate all of the ITS technologies and services, ranging from the lowest-level technical components, such as roadside unit as a service (RSUAAS, to the most abstract ITS services that will be offered to ITS users (value-added services. To validate our model, a functionality case study that included all of the components of our model was designed.

  6. SOA-based model for value-added ITS services delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Quintero, Luis Felipe; Maciá-Pérez, Francisco; Marcos-Jorquera, Diego; Gilart-Iglesias, Virgilio

    2014-01-01

    Integration is currently a key factor in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), especially because of the ever increasing service demands originating from the ITS industry and ITS users. The current ITS landscape is made up of multiple technologies that are tightly coupled, and its interoperability is extremely low, which limits ITS services generation. Given this fact, novel information technologies (IT) based on the service-oriented architecture (SOA) paradigm have begun to introduce new ways to address this problem. The SOA paradigm allows the construction of loosely coupled distributed systems that can help to integrate the heterogeneous systems that are part of ITS. In this paper, we focus on developing an SOA-based model for integrating information technologies (IT) into ITS to achieve ITS service delivery. To develop our model, the ITS technologies and services involved were identified, catalogued, and decoupled. In doing so, we applied our SOA-based model to integrate all of the ITS technologies and services, ranging from the lowest-level technical components, such as roadside unit as a service (RSUAAS), to the most abstract ITS services that will be offered to ITS users (value-added services). To validate our model, a functionality case study that included all of the components of our model was designed.

  7. 8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frew, Bethany A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-03

    Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve load over many years or decades. CEMs can be computationally complex and are often forced to estimate key parameters using simplified methods to achieve acceptable solve times or for other reasons. In this paper, we discuss one of these parameters -- capacity value (CV). We first provide a high-level motivation for and overview of CV. We next describe existing modeling simplifications and an alternate approach for estimating CV that utilizes hourly '8760' data of load and VG resources. We then apply this 8760 method to an established CEM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model (Eurek et al. 2016). While this alternative approach for CV is not itself novel, it contributes to the broader CEM community by (1) demonstrating how a simplified 8760 hourly method, which can be easily implemented in other power sector models when data is available, more accurately captures CV trends than a statistical method within the ReEDS CEM, and (2) providing a flexible modeling framework from which other 8760-based system elements (e.g., demand response, storage, and transmission) can be added to further capture important dynamic interactions, such as curtailment.

  8. Interception of values as a result of the business model restructuring – case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nogalski Bogdan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a case of value interception as a result of restructuring the business model of a manufacturing company that operates in the agricultural machinery sector. A company that focuses on core activities in the value chain and commissions the manufacturing of most components to specialised suppliers – as a result of restructuring – becomes an integrator that controls all parts of the supply chain; from obtaining a raw material, through its own production of a possibly large number of components, to the distribution of a finished composite product. The framework of the conducted research featured the identification of the relationships occurring between own production of components comprising a given product, and an alternative solution, i.e. possibility of acquiring them by way of co-operation. The authors assumed that a derivative of the value intercepted in the finished product implementation process is the number of components manufactured using own production resources.

  9. Using 3d Bim Model for the Value-Based Land Share Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çelik Şimşek, N.; Uzun, B.

    2017-11-01

    According to the Turkish condominium ownership system, 3D physical buildings and its condominium units are registered to the condominium ownership books via 2D survey plans. Currently, 2D representations of the 3D physical objects, causes inaccurate and deficient implementations for the determination of the land shares. Condominium ownership and easement right are established with a clear indication of land shares (condominium ownership law, article no. 3). So, the land share of each condominium unit have to be determined including the value differences among the condominium units. However the main problem is that, land share has often been determined with area based over the project before construction of the building. The objective of this study is proposing a new approach in terms of value-based land share calculations of the condominium units that subject to condominium ownership. So, the current approaches and its failure that have taken into account in determining the land shares are examined. And factors that affect the values of the condominium units are determined according to the legal decisions. This study shows that 3D BIM models can provide important approaches for the valuation problems in the determination of the land shares.

  10. Establishment of virtual three-dimensional model for intravascular interventional devices and its clinical value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Xin; Zhong Liming; Xie Xiaodong; Wang Chaohua; You Jian; Hu Hong; Hu Kongqiong; Zhao Xiaowei

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To explore virtual three-dimensional (3D) model for intravascular interventional devices,the method of preoperative simulation and its value in clinical work. Methods: The virtual models including catheter, guide wire, stent and coil were established by using the 3D moulding software of 3D Studio MAX R3. The interventional preoperative simulation was performed on personal computer including 21 patients of cerebral aneurysm embolization (anterior communicating artery 5, posterior communicating artery 10,middle cerebral artery 3, internal carotid artery 2, and vertebral artery 1), during interventional procedures, the surgeon relied on the simulation results for plastic micro-guide wire, catheter and the release of micro-coils and stents. Results: (1) All the virtual instruments and real instruments had similar shape,the overall tine for constructing virtual model was about 20 hours. The preoperative simulation took 50 to 80 minutes. (2) The simulation result of catheter insertion in the 18 cases had relevant value to guide micro-catheter, molding micro-guide wire tip, and shortened the operating time. For embolization, the simulation results of filling coil and releasing stent were similar to surgical results in 76% of the patients (16/21). (3)For teaching and training, 93% (38/41) of doctors in training believed that preoperative simulation facilitated the understanding of surgery. Conclusions: The method of virtual model of intravascular interventional devices was reliable. The preoperative simulation results could be used to guide practical clinical operation with relatively high degree of similarity, and could play a role in promoting researches on interventional virtual operations. (authors)

  11. PK-PD Integration Modeling and Cutoff Value of Florfenicol against Streptococcus suis in Pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Zhixin; Liu, Qianying; Yang, Shuaike; Yang, Bing; Khaliq, Haseeb; Li, Kun; Ahmed, Saeed; Sajid, Abdul; Zhang, Bingzhou; Chen, Pin; Qiu, Yinsheng; Cao, Jiyue; He, Qigai

    2018-01-01

    The aims of the present study were to establish optimal doses and provide an alternate CO PD for florfenicol against Streptococcus suis based on pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic integration modeling. The recommended dose (30 mg/kg b.w.) were administered in healthy pigs through intramuscular and intravenous routes for pharmacokinetic studies. The main pharmacokinetic parameters of C max , AUC 0-24h , AUC, Ke, t 1/2ke , MRT, T max, and Cl b , were estimated as 4.44 μg/ml, 88.85 μg⋅h/ml, 158.56 μg⋅h/ml, 0.048 h -1 , 14.46 h, 26.11 h, 4 h and 0.185 L/h⋅kg, respectively. The bioavailability of florfenicol was calculated to be 99.14% after I.M administration. A total of 124 Streptococcus suis from most cities of China were isolated to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of florfenicol. The MIC 50 and MIC 90 were calculated as 1 and 2 μg/ml. A serotype 2 Streptococcus suis (WH-2), with MIC value similar to MIC 90 , was selected as a representative for an in vitro and ex vivo pharmacodynamics study. The MIC values of WH-2 in TSB and plasma were 2 μg/ml, and the MBC/MIC ratios were 2 in TSB and plasma. The MPC was detected to be 3.2 μg/ml. According to inhibitory sigmoid E max model, plasma AUC 0-24h /MIC values of florfenicol versus Streptococcus suis were 37.89, 44.02, and 46.42 h for the bactericidal, bacteriostatic, and elimination activity, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations the optimal doses for bactericidal, bacteriostatic, and elimination effects were calculated as 16.5, 19.17, and 20.14 mg/kg b.w. for 50% target attainment rates (TAR), and 21.55, 25.02, and 26.85 mg/kg b.w. for 90% TAR, respectively. The PK-PD cutoff value (CO PD ) analyzed from MCS for florfenicol against Streptococcus suis was 1 μg/ml which could provide a sensitivity cutoff value. These results contributed an optimized alternative to clinical veterinary medicine and showed that the dose of 25.02 mg/kg florfenicol for 24 h could have a bactericidal action against

  12. PK-PD Integration Modeling and Cutoff Value of Florfenicol against Streptococcus suis in Pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhixin Lei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present study were to establish optimal doses and provide an alternate COPD for florfenicol against Streptococcus suis based on pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic integration modeling. The recommended dose (30 mg/kg b.w. were administered in healthy pigs through intramuscular and intravenous routes for pharmacokinetic studies. The main pharmacokinetic parameters of Cmax, AUC0-24h, AUC, Ke, t1/2ke, MRT, Tmax, and Clb, were estimated as 4.44 μg/ml, 88.85 μg⋅h/ml, 158.56 μg⋅h/ml, 0.048 h-1, 14.46 h, 26.11 h, 4 h and 0.185 L/h⋅kg, respectively. The bioavailability of florfenicol was calculated to be 99.14% after I.M administration. A total of 124 Streptococcus suis from most cities of China were isolated to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC of florfenicol. The MIC50 and MIC90 were calculated as 1 and 2 μg/ml. A serotype 2 Streptococcus suis (WH-2, with MIC value similar to MIC90, was selected as a representative for an in vitro and ex vivo pharmacodynamics study. The MIC values of WH-2 in TSB and plasma were 2 μg/ml, and the MBC/MIC ratios were 2 in TSB and plasma. The MPC was detected to be 3.2 μg/ml. According to inhibitory sigmoid Emax model, plasma AUC0-24h/MIC values of florfenicol versus Streptococcus suis were 37.89, 44.02, and 46.42 h for the bactericidal, bacteriostatic, and elimination activity, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations the optimal doses for bactericidal, bacteriostatic, and elimination effects were calculated as 16.5, 19.17, and 20.14 mg/kg b.w. for 50% target attainment rates (TAR, and 21.55, 25.02, and 26.85 mg/kg b.w. for 90% TAR, respectively. The PK-PD cutoff value (COPD analyzed from MCS for florfenicol against Streptococcus suis was 1 μg/ml which could provide a sensitivity cutoff value. These results contributed an optimized alternative to clinical veterinary medicine and showed that the dose of 25.02 mg/kg florfenicol for 24 h could have a bactericidal action against

  13. Grey-Markov prediction model based on background value optimization and central-point triangular whitenization weight function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jing; Dang, Yaoguo; Li, Bingjun

    2018-01-01

    Grey-Markov forecasting model is a combination of grey prediction model and Markov chain which show obvious optimization effects for data sequences with characteristics of non-stationary and volatility. However, the state division process in traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model is mostly based on subjective real numbers that immediately affects the accuracy of forecasting values. To seek the solution, this paper introduces the central-point triangular whitenization weight function in state division to calculate possibilities of research values in each state which reflect preference degrees in different states in an objective way. On the other hand, background value optimization is applied in the traditional grey model to generate better fitting data. By this means, the improved Grey-Markov forecasting model is built. Finally, taking the grain production in Henan Province as an example, it verifies this model's validity by comparing with GM(1,1) based on background value optimization and the traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model.

  14. Simulating the value of electric-vehicle-grid integration using a behaviourally realistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolinetz, Michael; Axsen, Jonn; Peters, Jotham; Crawford, Curran

    2018-02-01

    Vehicle-grid integration (VGI) uses the interaction between electric vehicles and the electrical grid to provide benefits that may include reducing the cost of using intermittent renwable electricity or providing a financial incentive for electric vehicle ownerhip. However, studies that estimate the value of VGI benefits have largely ignored how consumer behaviour will affect the magnitude of the impact. Here, we simulate the long-term impact of VGI using behaviourally realistic and empirically derived models of vehicle adoption and charging combined with an electricity system model. We focus on the case where a central entity manages the charging rate and timing for participating electric vehicles. VGI is found not to increase the adoption of electric vehicles, but does have a a small beneficial impact on electricity prices. By 2050, VGI reduces wholesale electricity prices by 0.6-0.7% (0.7 MWh-1, 2010 CAD) relative to an equivalent scenario without VGI. Excluding consumer behaviour from the analysis inflates the value of VGI.

  15. Modelling and Optimising the Value of a Hybrid Solar-Wind System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Arjun; Murali, Kartik; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Arjunan, C. V.

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, a net present value (NPV) approach for a solar hybrid system has been presented. The system, in question aims at supporting an investor by assessing an investment in solar-wind hybrid system in a given area. The approach follow a combined process of modelling the system, with optimization of major investment-related variables to maximize the financial yield of the investment. The consideration of solar wind hybrid supply presents significant potential for cost reduction. The investment variables concern the location of solar wind plant, and its sizing. The system demand driven, meaning that its primary aim is to fully satisfy the energy demand of the customers. Therefore, the model is a practical tool in the hands of investor to assess and optimize in financial terms an investment aiming at covering real energy demand. Optimization is performed by taking various technical, logical constraints. The relation between the maximum power obtained between individual system and the hybrid system as a whole in par with the net present value of the system has been highlighted.

  16. Job insecurity and discretionary behaviors: Social exchange perspective versus group value model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccoli, Beatrice; De Witte, Hans; Reisel, William D

    2017-02-01

    This study examines the relationship between job insecurity and discretionary behaviors, that is, organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB) and counterproductive work behaviors (CWB), with the purpose to extend knowledge on the theoretical explanations for these outcomes. Considering the employment relationship with the organization, two different perspectives are suggested and compared in a multiple mediator model, in order to understand the reasons for discretionary behaviors. We draw upon social exchange theory as the basis of psychological contract perceptions and we rely on the group value model to explain organizational justice evaluations. A total of 570 blue-collar workers in Italy participated in our survey. The results show that job insecurity is indirectly related to OCB and CWB through psychological contract breach and organizational injustice. Both mediational mechanisms have equivalent strength in explaining the relationships, namely, they are complementary processes in accounting for both behaviors. These findings suggest that employees' behaviors in job insecure contexts are driven not only by concerns related to the exchange of resources with the organization, but also by evaluations about their value as important members of the group. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delson Chikobvu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

  18. Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

    2017-12-01

    The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

  19. Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria model for design concept selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Osezua Aikhuele

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach for design concept selection by using an integrated Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP and an Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy modified TOP-SIS (IVIF-modified TOPSIS model. The integrated model which uses the improved score func-tion and a weighted normalized Euclidean distance method for the calculation of the separation measures of alternatives from the positive and negative intuitionistic ideal solutions provides a new approach for the computation of intuitionistic fuzzy ideal solutions. The results of the two approaches are integrated using a reflection defuzzification integration formula. To ensure the feasibility and the rationality of the integrated model, the method is successfully applied for eval-uating and selecting some design related problems including a real-life case study for the selec-tion of the best concept design for a new printed-circuit-board (PCB and for a hypothetical ex-ample. The model which provides a novel alternative, has been compared with similar computa-tional methods in the literature.

  20. Models and methods for assessing the value of HVDC and MVDC technologies in modern power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elizondo, Marcelo A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); O' Brien, James G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Huang, Qiuhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kirkham, Harold [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Huang, Zhenyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chinthavali, Madhu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Suman, Debnath [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mohan, Nihal [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Hess, Warren [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Duebner, David [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Orser, David [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Brown, Hilary [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Osborn, Dale [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Feltes, James [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States); Kurthakoti Chandrashekhara, Divya [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States); Zhu, Wenchun [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2017-07-31

    This report reflects the results of U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Grid Modernization project 0074 “Models and methods for assessing the value of HVDC [high-voltage direct current] and MTDC [multi-terminal direct current] technologies in modern power grids.” The work was done by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in cooperation with Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Siemens. The main motivation of this study was to show the benefit of using direct current (DC) systems larger than those in existence today as they overlap with the alternating current (AC) systems. Proper use of their flexibility in terms of active/reactive power control and fast response can provide much-needed services to the grid at the same time as moving large blocks of energy to take advantage of cost diversity. Ultimately, the project’s success will enable decision-makers and investors to make well-informed decisions regarding this use of DC systems. This project showed the technical feasibility of HVDC macrogrid for frequency control and congestion relief in addition to bulk power transfers. Industry-established models for commonly used technologies were employed, along with high-fidelity models for recently developed HVDC converter technologies; like the modular multilevel converters (MMCs), a voltage source converters (VSC). Models for General Electric Positive Sequence Load Flow (GE PSLF) and Siemens Power System Simulator (PSS/E), widely used analysis programs, were for the first time adapted to include at the same time both Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and Eastern Interconnection (EI), the two largest North American interconnections. The high-fidelity models and their control were developed in detail for MMC system and extended to HVDC systems in point-to-point and in three-node multi-terminal configurations. Using a continental-level mixed AC-DC grid model, and using a HVDC macrogrid

  1. A modelling approach to find stable and reliable soil organic carbon values for further regionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bönecke, Eric; Franko, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) and carbon (SOC) might be the most important components to describe soil fertility of agricultural used soils. It is sensitive to temporal and spatial changes due to varying weather conditions, uneven crops and soil management practices and still struggles with providing reliable delineation of spatial variability. Soil organic carbon, furthermore, is an essential initial parameter for dynamic modelling, understanding e.g. carbon and nitrogen processes. Alas it requires cost and time intensive field and laboratory work to attain and using this information. The objective of this study is to assess an approach that reduces efforts of laboratory and field analyses by using method to find stable initial soil organic carbon values for further soil process modelling and regionalization on field scale. The demand of strategies, technics and tools to improve reliable soil organic carbon high resolution maps and additionally reducing cost constraints is hence still facing an increasing attention of scientific research. Although, it is nowadays a widely used practice, combining effective sampling schemes with geophysical sensing techniques, to describe within-field variability of soil organic carbon, it is still challenging large uncertainties, even at field scale in both, science and agriculture. Therefore, an analytical and modelling approach might facilitate and improve this strategy on small and large field scale. This study will show a method, how to find reliable steady state values of soil organic carbon at particular points, using the approved soil process model CANDY (Franko et al. 1995). It is focusing on an iterative algorithm of adjusting the key driving components: soil physical properties, meteorological data and management information, for which we quantified the input and the losses of soil carbon (manure, crop residues, other organic inputs, decomposition, leaching). Furthermore, this approach can be combined with geophysical

  2. Variable selection models for genomic selection using whole-genome sequence data and singular value decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meuwissen, Theo H E; Indahl, Ulf G; Ødegård, Jørgen

    2017-12-27

    Non-linear Bayesian genomic prediction models such as BayesA/B/C/R involve iteration and mostly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are computationally expensive, especially when whole-genome sequence (WGS) data are analyzed. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the genotype matrix can facilitate genomic prediction in large datasets, and can be used to estimate marker effects and their prediction error variances (PEV) in a computationally efficient manner. Here, we developed, implemented, and evaluated a direct, non-iterative method for the estimation of marker effects for the BayesC genomic prediction model. The BayesC model assumes a priori that markers have normally distributed effects with probability [Formula: see text] and no effect with probability (1 - [Formula: see text]). Marker effects and their PEV are estimated by using SVD and the posterior probability of the marker having a non-zero effect is calculated. These posterior probabilities are used to obtain marker-specific effect variances, which are subsequently used to approximate BayesC estimates of marker effects in a linear model. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare alternative genomic prediction methods, where a single reference generation was used to estimate marker effects, which were subsequently used for 10 generations of forward prediction, for which accuracies were evaluated. SVD-based posterior probabilities of markers having non-zero effects were generally lower than MCMC-based posterior probabilities, but for some regions the opposite occurred, resulting in clear signals for QTL-rich regions. The accuracies of breeding values estimated using SVD- and MCMC-based BayesC analyses were similar across the 10 generations of forward prediction. For an intermediate number of generations (2 to 5) of forward prediction, accuracies obtained with the BayesC model tended to be slightly higher than accuracies obtained using the best linear unbiased prediction of SNP

  3. Analysis and modelling of septic shock microarray data using Singular Value Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allanki, Srinivas; Dixit, Madhulika; Thangaraj, Paul; Sinha, Nandan Kumar

    2017-06-01

    Being a high throughput technique, enormous amounts of microarray data has been generated and there arises a need for more efficient techniques of analysis, in terms of speed and accuracy. Finding the differentially expressed genes based on just fold change and p-value might not extract all the vital biological signals that occur at a lower gene expression level. Besides this, numerous mathematical models have been generated to predict the clinical outcome from microarray data, while very few, if not none, aim at predicting the vital genes that are important in a disease progression. Such models help a basic researcher narrow down and concentrate on a promising set of genes which leads to the discovery of gene-based therapies. In this article, as a first objective, we have used the lesser known and used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique to build a microarray data analysis tool that works with gene expression patterns and intrinsic structure of the data in an unsupervised manner. We have re-analysed a microarray data over the clinical course of Septic shock from Cazalis et al. (2014) and have shown that our proposed analysis provides additional information compared to the conventional method. As a second objective, we developed a novel mathematical model that predicts a set of vital genes in the disease progression that works by generating samples in the continuum between health and disease, using a simple normal-distribution-based random number generator. We also verify that most of the predicted genes are indeed related to septic shock. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Old but sexy: Value creation of old technology-based businesses models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oke Christian Beckmann

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the strategic and organisational con gurations that companies can use to generate value with product-market systems and their busi- ness models that have been dominant in the past but forced back into niche positions by innovation. The former dominant music format vinyl was rapidly substituted after the introduction of digital music. However, still nowadays some customers use and buy old technology-based products – vinyl sales boom again since 2007. Due to the two-sided nature of the market, customers have to get access to complementary goods. We are thus interested in technologies which have been outdated by the emergence of new technologies. The originality lies in the combination of the two areas: business models and old technologies. Furthermore, vinyl is an example not analysed in depth by scholars so far. We approached this by undertaking an in-depth literature review to generate hypotheses regarding the value-adding activities of old-technology based businesses as a basis for further research in this area. In addition the paper gives insights into the constellations to be expected over time for old technology-based businesses models in platform markets. We here focus on a neglected topic in the strategy literature which, however, bears relevance for many businesses locked into product-market systems which make it hard for them to (completely switch to a new technology emerging in the market. It is especially valuable to describe the consequences in a systematic fashion.

  5. ARM Cloud Radar Simulator Package for Global Climate Models Value-Added Product

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-05-01

    It has been challenging to directly compare U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ground-based cloud radar measurements with climate model output because of limitations or features of the observing processes and the spatial gap between model and the single-point measurements. To facilitate the use of ARM radar data in numerical models, an ARM cloud radar simulator was developed to converts model data into pseudo-ARM cloud radar observations that mimic the instrument view of a narrow atmospheric column (as compared to a large global climate model [GCM] grid-cell), thus allowing meaningful comparison between model output and ARM cloud observations. The ARM cloud radar simulator value-added product (VAP) was developed based on the CloudSat simulator contained in the community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011), which has been widely used in climate model evaluation with satellite data (Klein et al., 2013, Zhang et al., 2010). The essential part of the CloudSat simulator is the QuickBeam radar simulator that is used to produce CloudSat-like radar reflectivity, but is capable of simulating reflectivity for other radars (Marchand et al., 2009; Haynes et al., 2007). Adapting QuickBeam to the ARM cloud radar simulator within COSP required two primary changes: one was to set the frequency to 35 GHz for the ARM Ka-band cloud radar, as opposed to 94 GHz used for the CloudSat W-band radar, and the second was to invert the view from the ground to space so as to attenuate the beam correctly. In addition, the ARM cloud radar simulator uses a finer vertical resolution (100 m compared to 500 m for CloudSat) to resolve the more detailed structure of clouds captured by the ARM radars. The ARM simulator has been developed following the COSP workflow (Figure 1) and using the capabilities available in COSP

  6. Development of a theoretical model for measuring the perceived value of social responsibility of IPEN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutarelli, Rita de Cassia; Lima, Ana Cecilia de Souza; Sabundjian, Gaiane

    2015-01-01

    Social responsibility has been one of the great discussions in institutional management, and that is an important variable in the strategy and performance of the institutions. The Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN) has worked for the development of environmental and social issues, converging mainly to the benefit of the population. The theory that guides the social responsibility practices is always difficult to measure for several reasons. One reason for this difficulty is that social responsibility involves a variety of issues that are converted in rights, obligations and expectations of different audiences that could be internal and external to the organization. In addition, the different understanding of the institutions about social and environmental issues is another source of complexity. Based on the study context including: the topic being researched, the chosen institute and the questions resulting from the research, the aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical model to describe and analyze the social responsibility of IPEN. The main contribution of this study is to develop a model that integrates the dimensions of social responsibility. These dimensions - also called constructs - are composed of indexes and indicators that were previously used in various contexts of empirical research, combined with the theoretical and conceptual review of social responsibility. The construction of the proposed theoretical model was based on the research of various methodologies and various indicators for measuring social responsibility. This model was statistically tested, analyzed, adjusted, and the end result is a consistent model to measure the perceived value of social responsibility of IPEN. This work could also be applied to other institutions. Moreover, it may be improved and become a tool that will serve as a thermometer to measure social and environmental issues, and will support decision making in various management processes. (author)

  7. Development of a theoretical model for measuring the perceived value of social responsibility of IPEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mutarelli, Rita de Cassia; Lima, Ana Cecilia de Souza; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: rmutarelli@gmail.com, E-mail: aclima@ipen.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Social responsibility has been one of the great discussions in institutional management, and that is an important variable in the strategy and performance of the institutions. The Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN) has worked for the development of environmental and social issues, converging mainly to the benefit of the population. The theory that guides the social responsibility practices is always difficult to measure for several reasons. One reason for this difficulty is that social responsibility involves a variety of issues that are converted in rights, obligations and expectations of different audiences that could be internal and external to the organization. In addition, the different understanding of the institutions about social and environmental issues is another source of complexity. Based on the study context including: the topic being researched, the chosen institute and the questions resulting from the research, the aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical model to describe and analyze the social responsibility of IPEN. The main contribution of this study is to develop a model that integrates the dimensions of social responsibility. These dimensions - also called constructs - are composed of indexes and indicators that were previously used in various contexts of empirical research, combined with the theoretical and conceptual review of social responsibility. The construction of the proposed theoretical model was based on the research of various methodologies and various indicators for measuring social responsibility. This model was statistically tested, analyzed, adjusted, and the end result is a consistent model to measure the perceived value of social responsibility of IPEN. This work could also be applied to other institutions. Moreover, it may be improved and become a tool that will serve as a thermometer to measure social and environmental issues, and will support decision making in various management processes. (author)

  8. The economic and environmental value of genetic improvements in fattening pigs: An integrated dynamic model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, J K; Sevón-Aimonen, M-L; Stygar, A H; Partanen, K

    2015-08-01

    The selection of animals for improved performance affects the profitability of pig fattening and has environmental consequences. The goal of this paper was to examine how changes in genetic and market parameters impact the biophysical (feeding patterns, timing of slaughter, nitrogen excretion) and economic (return per pig space unit) results describing pig fattening in a Finnish farm. The analysis can be viewed as focusing on terminal line breeding goals. An integrated model using recursive stochastic dynamic programming and a biological pig growth model was used to estimate biophysical results and economic values. Combining these models allowed us to provide more accurate estimates for the value of genetic improvement and, thus, provide better feedback to animal breeding programs than the traditional approach, which is based on fixed management patterns. Besides the benchmark scenario, the results were simulated for 5 other scenarios. In each scenario, genotype was improved regarding daily growth potential, carcass lean meat content, or the parameters of the Gompertz growth curve (maturing rate [], adult weight of protein [α], and adult weight of lipid mass []). The change in each parameter was equal to approximately 1 SD genetic improvement (ceteris paribus). Increasing , , daily growth potential, or carcass lean meat content increased the return on pig space unit by €12.60, €7.60, €4.10, or €2.90 per year, respectively, whereas an increase in decreased the return by €3.10. The genetic improvement in and resulted in the highest decrease in nitrogen excretion calculated in total or per kilogram of carcass gain but only under the optimal feeding pattern. Simulated changes in the Gompertz growth function parameters imply greater changes in ADG and lean meat content than changes in scenarios focusing on improving ADG and lean meat content directly. The economic value of genetic improvements as well as the quantity of nitrogen excreted during the fattening

  9. Physical Dating Violence: the potential understating value of a bi-factorial model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Viejo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available National and international studies have pointed out Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS, Straus, 1979, 1996 as one of the most widely used measures for assessing the strategies used in situations of conflict within young couples. Nevertheless, there is not any conclusive result about its structure. Especially the physical dating violence scale has undergone several structural analyses providing monofactorial and bifactorial structures. The aim of this study was focusing on the validation of structural models using confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA of CTS within adolescent couples, considering the differences between boys and girls and between aggressors and victims. 3258 adolescents, aged 15-21, were selected using a stratified random sample and interviewed using an adaptation of the CTS questionnaire. The results pointed out that it is not possible to identify a single model fit, but boys and girls, aggressor and victims, have the same pattern: a bifactorial model which establishes different but correlated moderate aggressive behaviors and severe aggressive behaviors. These results are discussed in terms of the potential value of this two factor structure for understanding the phenomenon.

  10. METHOD OF GREEN FUNCTIONS IN MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR TWO-POINT BOUNDARY-VALUE PROBLEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Dikareva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. In many applied problems of control, optimization, system theory, theoretical and construction mechanics, for problems with strings and nods structures, oscillation theory, theory of elasticity and plasticity, mechanical problems connected with fracture dynamics and shock waves, the main instrument for study these problems is a theory of high order ordinary differential equations. This methodology is also applied for studying mathematical models in graph theory with different partitioning based on differential equations. Such equations are used for theoretical foundation of mathematical models but also for constructing numerical methods and computer algorithms. These models are studied with use of Green function method. In the paper first necessary theoretical information is included on Green function method for multi point boundary-value problems. The main equation is discussed, notions of multi-point boundary conditions, boundary functionals, degenerate and non-degenerate problems, fundamental matrix of solutions are introduced. In the main part the problem to study is formulated in terms of shocks and deformations in boundary conditions. After that the main results are formulated. In theorem 1 conditions for existence and uniqueness of solutions are proved. In theorem 2 conditions are proved for strict positivity and equal measureness for a pair of solutions. In theorem 3 existence and estimates are proved for the least eigenvalue, spectral properties and positivity of eigenfunctions. In theorem 4 the weighted positivity is proved for the Green function. Some possible applications are considered for a signal theory and transmutation operators.

  11. ETHICAL MODELS OF PHYSICIAN--PATIENT RELATIONSHIP REVISITED WITH REGARD TO PATIENT AUTONOMY, VALUES AND PATIENT EDUCATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borza, Liana Rada; Gavrilovici, Cristina; Stockman, René

    2015-01-01

    The present paper revisits the ethical models of patient--physician relationship from the perspective of patient autonomy and values. It seems that the four traditional models of physician--patient relationship proposed by Emanuel & Emanuel in 1992 closely link patient values and patient autonomy. On the other hand, their reinterpretation provided by Agarwal & Murinson twenty years later emphasizes the independent expression of values and autonomy in individual patients. Additionally, patient education has been assumed to join patient values and patient autonomy. Moreover, several authors have noted that, over the past few decades, patient autonomy has gradually replaced the paternalistic approach based on the premise that the physician knows what is best for the patient. Neither the paternalistic model of physician-patient relationship, nor the informative model is considered to be satisfactory, as the paternalistic model excludes patient values from decision making, while the informative model excludes physician values from decision making. However, the deliberative model of patient-physician interaction represents an adequate alternative to the two unsatisfactory approaches by promoting shared decision making between the physician and the patient. It has also been suggested that the deliberative model would be ideal for exercising patient autonomy in chronic care and that the ethical role of patient education would be to make the deliberative model applicable to chronic care. In this regard, studies have indicated that the use of decision support interventions might increase the deliberative capacity of chronic patients.

  12. Value-Focused Thinking Model to Evaluate SHM System Alternatives From Military end User Requirements Point of View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimaszewski Sławomir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes Value-Focused Thinking (VFT model developed in order to evaluate various alternatives for implementation of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM system on a military aircraft. Four SHM system alternatives are considered based on: visual inspection (current approach, piezoelectric (PZT sensors, Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG sensors and Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM sensors. A numerical example is shown to illustrate the model capability. Sensitivity analyses are performed on values such as Cost, Performance, Aircraft Availability and Technology Readiness Level in order to examine influence of these values on overall value of structural state of awareness provided by particular SHM system alternative.

  13. Convergence of Extreme Value Statistics in a Two-Layer Quasi-Geostrophic Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Melinda Gálfi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We search for the signature of universal properties of extreme events, theoretically predicted for Axiom A flows, in a chaotic and high-dimensional dynamical system. We study the convergence of GEV (Generalized Extreme Value and GP (Generalized Pareto shape parameter estimates to the theoretical value, which is expressed in terms of the partial information dimensions of the attractor. We consider a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model of the mid-latitudes, adopt two levels of forcing, and analyse the extremes of different types of physical observables (local energy, zonally averaged energy, and globally averaged energy. We find good agreement in the shape parameter estimates with the theory only in the case of more intense forcing, corresponding to a strong chaotic behaviour, for some observables (the local energy at every latitude. Due to the limited (though very large data size and to the presence of serial correlations, it is difficult to obtain robust statistics of extremes in the case of the other observables. In the case of weak forcing, which leads to weaker chaotic conditions with regime behaviour, we find, unsurprisingly, worse agreement with the theory developed for Axiom A flows.

  14. Navigating the global carbon market. An analysis of the CDM's value chain and prevalent business models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Malte; Hendrichs, Holger; Hoffmann, Volker H.

    2010-01-01

    From a slow start, the clean development mechanism (CDM) market has recently experienced enormous growth. However, the CDM market has been increasingly criticised, resulting in a lively debate about how to reform, complement, or replace it. In order to increase transparency and assist policy-makers in better understanding the current market, we depart from the traditional project-level perspective on CDM and analyse commercial activities by utilising data from UNEP Risoe's CDM Bazaar. To this end, we first establish a seven-step value chain by conducting a factor analysis on the commercial activities indicated in the Bazaar and, second, identify nine prevalent business models with a cluster analysis of all 495 participating organisations. Based on these analyses, we discuss potential impacts on the value chain of different policy scenarios that rely on carbon credits as incentive. We find that the importance of specific regulatory CDM know-how and general business activities such as finance varies strongly with the different policy scenarios. Our analysis serves to sensitise policy-makers and business about implications of different regulatory designs. (author)

  15. Risk model for suspected acute coronary syndrome is of limited value in an emergency department

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Christian Backer; Christiansen, Maja; Jørgensen, Jess Bjerre

    2015-01-01

    if assigned to the high-risk group was 3.0. Allocation to the high-risk group, male gender and age above 60 years was associated with a higher risk of ACS. For patients fulfilling the high-risk definition, sensitivity was 71%, specificity 55%, negative predictive value 90% and positive predictive value 24......INTRODUCTION: Among patients with acute chest pain, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is seen only in a minority of the patients, which raises the question, whether it is possible to separate a group with a high risk of ACS for admission to a cardiac care unit (CCU) from those with a low risk who would...... be treated at an emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to describe a risk stratification model for a Danish context. METHODS: This was a historic prospective cohort study of patients with suspicion of ACS. The patient was defined as a low-risk patient and admitted to the ED if: 1...

  16. Emerging Media Crisis Value Model: A Comparison of Relevant, Timely Message Strategies for Emergency Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Page

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Communication during an emergency or crisis event is essential for emergency responders, the community involved, and those watching on television as well as receiving information via social media from family members, friends or other community members. The evolution of communication during an emergency/crisis event now includes utilizing social media. To better understand this evolution the Emerging Media Crisis Value Model (EMCVM is used in comparing two emergency events; Hurricane Irene (2011, a natural disaster, and the theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado (2012, a man-made crisis. The EMCVM provides a foundation for future studies focusing on the use of social media, emergency responders at the local, state and national levels are better prepared to educate a community thus, counteracting public uncertainty, fear, while providing timely, accurate information.

  17. Value Creation in the Internet of Things: Mapping Business Models and Ecosystem Roles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heini Ikävalko

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The increasing connectivity provided by the Internet of Things (IoT supports novel business opportunities for actors in overlapping service systems. Therefore, the co-creative nature of IoT business needs to be further studied. This article reports an empirical study on a European IoT initiative. It contributes to the understudied area of IoT ecosystem dynamics by describing different actor roles and activities in the IoT use cases, and their implications for value creation in IoT ecosystems. Our findings show how IoT ecosystem actors may take the roles of ideator, designer, or intermediary in different IoT design layers, and we recommend this perspective to better understand and describe ecosystem business models. We also discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.

  18. A novel complex model of hemodialysis adequacy: Predictive value and relationship with malnutrition inflammation score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatković Vlastimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Target dialysis dose to ensure the best patient outcome is still a matter of debate. Traditional models have a number of limitations and do not comprehensively reflect all factors involved. In this study we present a new complex model of dialysis adequacy, the hemodialysis adequacy score (HAS, and evaluate its prognostic value, as well as its relationship with the malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS. The components of HAS included paradigms of the 6 major factors known to influence the outcome of hemodialysis (HD patients: the modified Karnofsky index (KI, the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI, Kt/V and URR measures of dialysis dose, body mass index (BMI and serum albumin level, serum levels of hemoglobin and ferritin, intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH and calciumphosphorus solubility product. The score was evaluated in a 24-month prospective study on 147 HD patients. Odds ratio analysis showed that hospitalized patients had twice the chance to have HAS >13 compared to those who were not hospitalized during the study period (OR=2.152, CI 95% (1.0024- 4.619. Mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with a HAS >13 at the 12-month follow-up (χ2=16.416, p 13 had significantly higher probability of death (log-rank Cox- Mantel=17.920, df=1, p <0.00023. The HAS directly and significantly correlated with the MIS at all measurements (p <0.0001. Results confirmed that the HAS is a useful tool to assess dialysis adequacy with a good prognostic value. The cutoff level for the HAS at 13 points was associated with an unfavorable outcome.

  19. Risk model for suspected acute coronary syndrome is of limited value in an emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Christian Backer; Christiansen, Maja; Jørgensen, Jess Bjerre; Staehr, Peter Bisgaard

    2015-10-01

    Among patients with acute chest pain, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is seen only in a minority of the patients, which raises the question, whether it is possible to separate a group with a high risk of ACS for admission to a cardiac care unit (CCU) from those with a low risk who would be treated at an emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to describe a risk stratification model for a Danish context. This was a historic prospective cohort study of patients with suspicion of ACS. The patient was defined as a low-risk patient and admitted to the ED if: 1) electrocardiogram (ECG) was normal, 2) the patient did not have persisting chest pain and 3) there was no history of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure or cardioverter defibrillator. Otherwise, patients were admitted to the CCU. The primary outcome was whether the ACS diagnosis was confirmed or rejected. We included a total of 488 patients with suspicion of ACS, 50% of whom were low-risk patients. 17% had a verified ACS; 10% of those in the low-risk group and 24% of those in the high-risk group (p = 0.0001). Among the verified ACS cases, 71% went primarily to the CCU. The odds ratio for an ACS if assigned to the high-risk group was 3.0. Allocation to the high-risk group, male gender and age above 60 years was associated with a higher risk of ACS. For patients fulfilling the high-risk definition, sensitivity was 71%, specificity 55%, negative predictive value 90% and positive predictive value 24% for an ACS. The model for stratification separated patients into two equal groups, allocated 71% of all ACS directly to the CCU and could not be improved by any of the additional factors examined. Further development of referral strategies for chest pain patients is required. none. not relevant.

  20. What Is the Predictive Value of Animal Models for Vaccine Efficacy in Humans? Consideration of Strategies to Improve the Value of Animal Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herati, Ramin Sedaghat; Wherry, E John

    2018-04-02

    Animal models are an essential feature of the vaccine design toolkit. Although animal models have been invaluable in delineating the mechanisms of immune function, their precision in predicting how well specific vaccines work in humans is often suboptimal. There are, of course, many obvious species differences that may limit animal models from predicting all details of how a vaccine works in humans. However, careful consideration of which animal models may have limitations should also allow more accurate interpretations of animal model data and more accurate predictions of what is to be expected in clinical trials. In this article, we examine some of the considerations that might be relevant to cross-species extrapolation of vaccine-related immune responses for the prediction of how vaccines will perform in humans. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  1. Demonstrating the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for catchment modelling and characterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkey, Eleanor; Parkin, Geoff; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Large, Andy; Quinn, Paul; Gibson, Ceri

    2017-05-01

    Despite there being well-established meteorological and hydrometric monitoring networks in the UK, many smaller catchments remain ungauged. This leaves a challenge for characterisation, modelling, forecasting and management activities. Here we demonstrate the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for modelling and understanding catchment response as a contribution to catchment science. The scheme implemented within the 42 km2 Haltwhistle Burn catchment, a tributary of the River Tyne in northeast England, has harvested and used quantitative and qualitative observations from the public in a novel way to effectively capture spatial and temporal river response. Community-based rainfall, river level and flood observations have been successfully collected and quality-checked, and used to build and run a physically-based, spatially-distributed catchment model, SHETRAN. Model performance using different combinations of observations is tested against traditionally-derived hydrographs. Our results show how the local network of community-based observations alongside traditional sources of hydro-information supports characterisation of catchment response more accurately than using traditional observations alone over both spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate that these community-derived datasets are most valuable during local flash flood events, particularly towards peak discharge. This information is often missed or poorly represented by ground-based gauges, or significantly underestimated by rainfall radar, as this study clearly demonstrates. While community-based observations are less valuable during prolonged and widespread floods, or over longer hydrological periods of interest, they can still ground-truth existing traditional sources of catchment data to increase confidence during characterisation and management activities. Involvement of the public in data collection activities also encourages wider community engagement, and provides important

  2. Model of Religious Study and Moral Values in TK Putra Harapan Nalumsari Jepara

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mubasyaroh Mubasyaroh

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Religious and moral education from an early age so needs to be invested for the child, so that in the future they will have a strong and deep understanding of the norms and teachings of Islam. Age children early childhood and kindergarten (TK is a time to play, so education is implemented particularly religious education should be designed properly by the teacher so that the education process into an active and fun activities. Kindergarten (TK Putra Harapan Nalumsari Jepara is one of the educational institutions that provide education for early childhood, with one lesson material is a moral and religious education. Moral education is one of the materials is very important because in load values, morals and religion, so this will be a guide for students in later life. The research method used is descriptive qualitative research to describe in detail the subjects and issues to be studied. The findings in this study is the cultivation of religious values and morals for children Kindergarten revolves around the activities of daily life. In particular cultivation of religious values with laying the foundations of the faith, personality or character that is commendable and devotional practices, in accordance with the child's ability is implemented. As one of the early childhood education institutions, in conducting the study, have several models of delivery Edutainment, habituation and uswah hasanah as a reference implementation of teaching and learning. Pendidikan agama dan moral sejak usia dini perlu ditanamkan bagi anak, sehingga di masa depan mereka akan memiliki pemahaman yang kuat dan mendalam dari norma-norma dan ajaran Islam. Usia anak-anak usia dini dan taman kanak-kanak (TK adalah waktu untuk bermain, sehingga pendidikan diimplementasikan khususnya pendidikan agama harus dirancang dengan baik oleh guru sehingga proses pendidikan menjadi kegiatan yang aktif dan menyenangkan. TK (TK Putra Harapan Nalumsari Jepara merupakan salah satu lembaga

  3. The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

    2017-05-01

    Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

  4. Goals and Values in School: A Model Developed for Describing, Evaluating and Changing the Social Climate of Learning Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Mara Westling

    2010-01-01

    This paper defines a broad model of the psychosocial climate in educational settings. The model was developed from a general theory of learning environments, on a theory of human values and on empirical studies of children's evaluations of their schools. The contents of the model are creativity, stimulation, achievement, self-efficacy, creativity,…

  5. Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

    2018-03-01

    Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given

  6. Teaching about Values and Goals: Applications of the Circumplex Model to Motivation, Well-Being, and Prosocial Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasser, Tim

    2014-01-01

    In this article, I review how people organize values and goals in their minds and I suggest teaching demonstrations, exercises, and assignments to help students learn this material. I pay special attention to circumplex models, which represent the extent of conflict or compatibility between values and goals, and to the well-researched distinction…

  7. A Value Focused Thinking Model for the Development and Selection of Electrical Energy Source Alternatives at Military Installations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schanding, Gregory

    2004-01-01

    .... This thesis presents a Value Focused Thinking approach to the development of a decision analysis model to assist a decision maker at a military installation in the generation and selection of back...

  8. 20180311 - Variability of LD50 Values from Rat Oral Acute Toxicity Studies: Implications for Alternative Model Development (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alternative models developed for estimating acute systemic toxicity are generally evaluated using in vivo LD50 values. However, in vivo acute systemic toxicity studies can produce variable results, even when conducted according to accepted test guidelines. This variability can ma...

  9. A study on value assessment of nuclear energy and quantification model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jun, Eun Ju

    2009-02-01

    Willingness To Pay (WTP) for nuclear energy from face-to-face interviews. The WTP results increased from 0.710 won/kWh to 1.199 won/kWh, and the total social cost of nuclear power was calculated to be 105-175 billion won/year. To quantify the energy security cost, a new approach was developed using Herfindahl-Hirchmann Index. The total cost of energy security, which integrates the cost of supply and economic security for different energy sources under different supply disruption periods, was derived from this model. It was found that the most secure energy source is nuclear, followed by coal, oil, and LNG. Its value was calculated to be 1.671 won/kWh for both 6 months and one year, and 30.927 won/kWh for two years. In contrast, LNG has the highest security cost (200.962 won/kWh for 6 months and 204.421 won/kWh for one year) due to its large economic cost of security (125.874 won /kWh). The latter stems from its high price volatility and fuel price portion. Although oil has the highest cost of supply security (130.410 won/kWh), the cost of economic security for LNG is much higher and it compensates the cost of supply security of oil. Consideration of the different security costs of different energy sources leads to the following result: it is recommendable for Korea to depend more on nuclear energy and coal and less on LNG and oil for its energy strategy

  10. A Value Model for Depressive Symptoms and Hopelessness among University Students in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilican, F. Isil; Yapici, Asim; Kutlu, M. Oguz

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to examine which values predicted depressive symptoms and hopelessness in Turkey. While it was hypothesized that values emphasizing universalism, benevolence, conformity, security, tradition, spirituality, self-direction, and achievement would predict lower levels of depressive symptoms and hopelessness, those values emphasizing…

  11. A review of the modelling of water values in different use sectors in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evidence suggests that industrial and domestic use place a high value on assurance of supply of current ... The average value product of water is much higher for industry than agriculture, but the marginal value products appear similar in both ...... rights and maintain or improve water quality through market incentives ...

  12. Determining the Threshold Value of Basil Yield Reduction and Evaluation of Water Uptake Models under Salinity Stress Condition

    OpenAIRE

    M. Sarai Tabrizi; H. Babazadeh; M. Homaee; F. Kaveh Kaveh; M. Parsinejad

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Several mathematical models are being used for assessing the plant response to the salinity of the root zone. The salinity of the soil and water resources is a major challenge for agricultural sector in Iran. Several mathematical models have been developed for plant responses to the salinity stress. However, these models are often applicable in particular conditions. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the threshold value of Basil yield reduction, modeling Basil respon...

  13. A Conceptual Model of the Relationship between Personal Values and Personal Tax Culture Regarding the Perception of Tax System Fairness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vehovar Aleksandra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between personal values and personal tax culture regarding the perception of a tax system’s fairness. The paper deals with the main theoretical starting points of the fundamental cornerstones of the general tax culture such as tax evasion, tax compliance and tax system. Based on findings in Schwartz's model of personal values, the paper discusses some of individual personal values, categorized into ten groups within a two-dimensional circular design, along two bipolar dimensions. Because this field of research is largely unexplored and based on the previous theoretical research, a conceptual model for analysing this relationship was developed.

  14. No-Impact Threshold Values for NRAP's Reduced Order Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, George V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Murray, Christopher J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Brown, Christopher F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jordan, Preston D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sharma, Maneesh [West Virginia Univ., and National Energy Technlogy Lab., Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop methodologies for establishing baseline datasets and statistical protocols for determining statistically significant changes between background concentrations and predicted concentrations that would be used to represent a contamination plume in the Gen II models being developed by NRAP’s Groundwater Protection team. The initial effort examined selected portions of two aquifer systems; the urban shallow-unconfined aquifer system of the Edwards-Trinity Aquifer System (being used to develop the ROM for carbon-rock aquifers, and the a portion of the High Plains Aquifer (an unconsolidated and semi-consolidated sand and gravel aquifer, being used to development the ROM for sandstone aquifers). Threshold values were determined for Cd, Pb, As, pH, and TDS that could be used to identify contamination due to predicted impacts from carbon sequestration storage reservoirs, based on recommendations found in the EPA’s ''Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities'' (US Environmental Protection Agency 2009). Results from this effort can be used to inform a ''no change'' scenario with respect to groundwater impacts, rather than the use of an MCL that could be significantly higher than existing concentrations in the aquifer.

  15. Is there value in retrospective 90-day bundle payment models for shoulder arthroplasty procedures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odum, Susan M; Hamid, Nady; Van Doren, Bryce A; Spector, Leo R

    2017-12-07

    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative was implemented as part of the Affordable Care Act. We implemented a retrospective payment model 2 for a 90-day total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) episode to assess the value of TSA BPCI at our private practice. Expenditures and postacute event rates of 132 fee-for-service (FFS) patients who underwent a TSA operation between 2009 and 2012 were compared with 333 BPCI patients who had a TSA operation in 2015. The 90-day postacute events included an inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF), skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health (HH) admissions and readmissions. Expenditures were converted to 2016 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. Wilcoxon tests and multivariate generalized estimating equation were used to assess independent cost-drivers. The median FFS expenditure was $21,157 (interquartile range, $16,894-$30,748) compared with $17,894 (interquartile range, $15,796-$20,894) for BPCI (P spending, which resulted in decreased costs of performing TSA surgery. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Verification of Fourier phase and amplitude values from simulated heart motion using a hydrodynamic cardiac model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiannikas, J.; Underwood, D.A.; Takatani, Setsuo; Nose, Yukihiko; MacIntyre, W.J.; Cook, S.A.; Go, R.T.; Golding, L.; Loop, F.D.

    1986-01-01

    Using pusher-plate-type artificial hearts, changes in the degree of synchrony and stroke volume were compared to phase and amplitude calculations from the first Fourier component of individual-pixel time-activity curves generated from gated radionuclide images (RNA) of these hearts. In addition, the ability of Fourier analysis to quantify paradoxical volume shifts was tested using a ventricular aneurysm model by which the Fourier amplitude was correlated to known increments of paradoxical volume. Predetermined phase-angle differences (incremental increases in asynchrony) and the mean phase-angle difference calculated from RNAs showed an agreement of -7 0 +-4.4 0 (mean +-SD). A strong correlation was noted between stroke volume and Fourier amplitude (r=0.98; P<0.0001) as well as between the paradoxical volume accepted by the 'aneurysm' and the Fourier amplitude (r=0.97; P<0.0001). The degree of asynchrony and changes in stroke volume were accurately reflected by the Fourier phase and amplitude values, respectively. In the specific case of ventricular aneurysms, the data demonstrate that using this method, the paradoxically moving areas may be localized, and the expansile volume within these regions can be quantified. (orig.)

  17. Implementing the logic model for measuring the value of faculty affairs activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Ann K; Novielli, Karen; Morahan, Page S

    2006-03-01

    In today's environment of increasing accountability in higher education and health care, it is critical that administrative units of a medical school demonstrate the added value of their activities to the school's mission and that these units discriminate those activities that demonstrate the most return on investment. This is particularly important for administrative units whose activities may not be considered essential to the basic functioning of the medical school. For example, admissions would likely be considered an essential administrative unit that the medical school cannot do without, while faculty development might be considered nonessential. Effective measurement systems serve two purposes. They guide decision making throughout the organization and they serve as a basis for evaluating performance. This article describes use of the program logic model to measure the contribution of faculty affairs and development offices to the recruitment, retention, and development of a medical school's teaching faculty, an outcome central to the mission of the medical school. The process of developing and rewarding faculty for teaching is used to illustrate the application of this method in linking activities of faculty affairs and development offices to outcomes that are of importance to the medical school.

  18. Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Bencardino

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Vast metropolitan areas include both urban areas and rural outskirts. Between these areas, there are strong links to the point which they cannot be examined separately. There is a contemporary presence of residential function and working activity in the rural outskirts, as well as in the typical sector of agriculture. Therefore, the production of goods and services for the city requires a combined analysis, due to the large territory which it has to consider. The evolution of the population of such a large territory can be studied in great detail, with reference to the single census area and with the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS. This means that such a demographic development produces an effect on the values of the urban real estate. This work demonstrates the existing interconnections between urban areas and rural outskirts. Data collection on trends of the population living in the Naples metropolitan area and the house prices associated with this area, and the post spatial processing of such data, allows for the establishment of thematic maps according to which a model capable of interpreting the population development is defined. A study of the statistical correlations shows the consequences that the population dynamics produce for property prices. In addition, the diachronic analysis of the sales prices of residential buildings demonstrates that economic functions, exclusive of certain urban or rural territories, end up distributing and integrating.

  19. Influence of the ionospheric model on DCB computation and added value of LEO satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wautelet, Gilles; Lestarquit, Laurent; Loyer, Sylvain; Mercier, Flavien; Perosanz, Félix

    2016-04-01

    In order to compute inter-frequency Differential Code Biases (DCBs), the Geometry-Free combination of a GNSS signal pair needs to be corrected from the ionospheric refraction effect. Such information is obtained using either Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) or local models. In this work we investigate the influence of GIMs on the final value and precision of DCB solution. The study covers different ionospheric conditions, ranging from very quiet ionospheric background up to a severe ionospheric storm. In a first step, the Slant Total Electron Content (STEC) between GIMs is assessed as a function of receiver latitude, elevation mask and ionospheric conditions. Then, daily DCBs are estimated using these different GIMs, receiver and satellite contributions being separated using a zero-mean constraint. If the precision of satellite DCBs is clearly dependent on ionospheric conditions and of the observing network, the choice of the GIM seems also to have a non negligible impact. At last, an independent estimation of DCBs is performed using Low Earth Orbit (LEO) observations (such as JASON's GPS data). This solution is compared with our ground network solution and with DCBs coming from the International GNSS Service.

  20. SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE KNOWLEDGE CREATION AND CONVERSION MODEL AND THE COMPETING VALUES FRAMEWORK: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAULO COSTA

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Contemporaneously, and with the successive paradigmatic revolutions inherent to management since the XVII century, we are witnessing a new era marked by the structural rupture in the way organizations are perceived. Market globalization, cemented by quick technological evolutions, associated with economic, cultural, political and social transformations characterize a reality where uncertainty is the only certainty for organizations and managers. Knowledge management has been interpreted by managers and academics as a viable alternative in a logic of creation and conversation of sustainable competitive advantages. However, there are several barriers to the implementation and development of knowledge management programs in organizations, with organizational culture being one of the most preponderant. In this sense, and in this article, we will analyze and compare The Knowledge Creation and Conversion Model proposed by Nonaka and Takeuchi (1995 and Quinn and Rohrbaugh's Competing Values Framework (1983, since both have convergent conceptual lines that can assist managers in different sectors to guide their organization in a perspective of productivity, quality and market competitiveness.

  1. Urology Group Compensation and Ancillary Service Models in an Era of Value-based Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Neal D; Jacoby, Dana

    2016-01-01

    Changes involving the health care economic landscape have affected physicians' workflow, productivity, compensation structures, and culture. Ongoing Federal legislation regarding regulatory documentation and imminent payment-changing methodologies have encouraged physician consolidation into larger practices, creating affiliations with hospitals, multidisciplinary medical specialties, and integrated delivery networks. As subspecialization and evolution of care models have accelerated, independent medical groups have broadened ancillary service lines by investing in enterprises that compete with hospital-based (academic and nonacademic) entities, as well as non-physician- owned multispecialty enterprises, for both outpatient and inpatient services. The looming and dramatic shift from volume- to value-based health care compensation will assuredly affect urology group compensation arrangements and productivity formulae. For groups that can implement change rapidly, efficiently, and harmoniously, there will be opportunities to achieve the Triple Aim goals of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, while maintaining a successful medical-financial practice. In summary, implementing new payment algorithms alongside comprehensive care coordination will assist urology groups in addressing the health economic cost and quality challenges that have been historically encountered with fee-for-service systems. Urology group leadership and stakeholders will need to adjust internal processes, methods of care coordination, cultural dependency, and organizational structures in order to create better systems of care and management. In response, ancillary services and patient throughput will need to evolve in order to adequately align quality measurement and reporting systems across provider footprints and patient populations.

  2. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  3. The 2-MEV model: Constancy of adolescent environmental values within an 8-year time frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, F. X.; Johnson, B.; Buxner, S.; Felix, L.

    2015-08-01

    The 2-MEV model is a widely used tool to monitor children's environmental perception by scoring individual values. Although the scale's validity has been confirmed repeatedly and independently as well as the scale is in usage within more than two dozen language units all over the world, longitudinal properties still need clarification. The purpose of the present study therefore was to validate the 2-MEV scale based on a large data basis of 10,676 children collected over an eight-year period. Cohorts of three different US states contributed to the sample by responding to a paper-and-pencil questionnaire within their pre-test initiatives in the context of field center programs. Since we used only the pre-program 2-MEV scale results (which is before participation in education programs), the data were clearly unspoiled by any follow-up interventions. The purpose of analysis was fourfold: First, to test and confirm the hypothesized factorized structure for the large data set and for the subsample of each of the three states. Second, to analyze the scoring pattern across the eight years' time range for both preservation and utilitarian preferences. Third, to investigate any age effects in the extracted factors. Finally, to extract suitable recommendations for educational implementation efforts.

  4. The Impact of Urban Transit Systems on Property Values: A Model and Some Evidences from the City of Naples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariano Gallo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A hedonic model for estimating the effects of transit systems on real estate values is specified and calibrated for the city of Naples. The model is used to estimate the external benefits concerning property values which may be attributed to the Naples metro at the present time and in two future scenarios. The results show that only high-frequency metro lines have appreciable effects on real estate values, while low-frequency metro lines and bus lines produce no significant impacts. Our results show that the impacts on real estate values of the metro system in Naples are significant, with corresponding external benefits estimated at about 7.2 billion euros or about 8.5% of the total value of real estate assets.

  5. 40 CFR 600.208-08 - Calculation of FTP-based and HFET-based fuel economy values for a model type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-based fuel economy values for a model type. 600.208-08 Section 600.208-08 Protection of Environment... model type. (a) Fuel economy values for a base level are calculated from vehicle configuration fuel... update sales projections at the time any model type value is calculated for a label value. (iii) The...

  6. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  7. A step function model to evaluate the real monetary value of man-sievert with real GDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, 19 Guseong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: shna@kins.re.kr; Kim, Sun G. [School of Business, Daejeon University, Yong Woon-dong, Dong-gu, Daejeon 300-716 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: sunkim@dju.ac.kr

    2009-07-15

    For use in a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection in Korea under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete step function model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value in the real economic value. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of real GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we show different alpha values in the real term, differentiated with respect to the range of individual doses, which would be more realistic and informative for application to the radiation protection practices. GDP deflators of economy can reflect the society's situations. Finally, we suggest that the Korean model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors.

  8. A step function model to evaluate the real monetary value of man-sievert with real GDP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Seong H.; Kim, Sun G.

    2009-01-01

    For use in a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection in Korea under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete step function model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value in the real economic value. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of real GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we show different alpha values in the real term, differentiated with respect to the range of individual doses, which would be more realistic and informative for application to the radiation protection practices. GDP deflators of economy can reflect the society's situations. Finally, we suggest that the Korean model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors.

  9. A parametric model to estimate the proportion from true null using a distribution for p-values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chang; Zelterman, Daniel

    2017-10-01

    Microarray studies generate a large number of p-values from many gene expression comparisons. The estimate of the proportion of the p-values sampled from the null hypothesis draws broad interest. The two-component mixture model is often used to estimate this proportion. If the data are generated under the null hypothesis, the p-values follow the uniform distribution. What is the distribution of p-values when data are sampled from the alternative hypothesis? The distribution is derived for the chi-squared test. Then this distribution is used to estimate the proportion of p-values sampled from the null hypothesis in a parametric framework. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate its performance in comparison with five recent methods. Even in scenarios with clusters of correlated p-values and a multicomponent mixture or a continuous mixture in the alternative, the new method performs robustly. The methods are demonstrated through an analysis of a real microarray dataset.

  10. Using the Expectancy Value Model of Motivation to Understand the Relationship between Student Attitudes and Achievement in Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.; Neumann, David L.

    2012-01-01

    We tested a model of the relationship between attitudes toward statistics and achievement based on Eccles' Expectancy Value Model (1983). Participants (n = 149; 83% female) were second-year Australian university students in a psychology statistics course (mean age = 23.36 years, SD = 7.94 years). We obtained demographic details, past performance,…

  11. Value Investing

    OpenAIRE

    Liptáková, Lenka

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor's thesis deals with value investing in the form defined by Benjamin Graham. In clarifying the theoretical aspects, particular attention is given to an intrinsic value of stocks and to its calculation methods. A way to overcome the deficiencies in the two most widely used models of calculation is introduced. It is value screening, which by defining of certain criteria makes an assumption of undervalued stocks. Then the investment approach of the most successful investor, Warren B...

  12. A mathematical model to determine incorporated quantities of radioactivity from the measured photometric values of tritium-autoradiographs in neuroanatomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennissen, J.J.

    1981-01-01

    The mathematical/empirical model developed in this paper helps to determine the incorporated radioactivity from the measured photometric values and the exposure time T. Possible errors of autoradiography due to the exposure time or the preparation are taken into consideration by the empirical model. It is shown that the error of appr. 400% appearing in the sole comparison of the measured photometric values can be corrected. The model is valid for neuroanatomy as optical nerves, i.e. neuroanatomical material, were used to develop it. Its application also to the other sections of the central nervous system seems to be justified due to the reduction of errors thus achieved. (orig.) [de

  13. Exogenous factors and market value: an appraisal model of capital gains in urban redevelopment programs in public/ private partnerships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Calabrò

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The proposed article aims to illustrate an experimental model applicable, in the planning stage, to an appraisal of the capital gains in a residential requalification in public/ private partnership. The model develops a method using a conventional cost value through a multicriteria model which evaluates the influence of qualitative exogenous variables to the market value of the property. The aim is to develop a synthetic procedure, transparent, shared and easy to use by the public authorities, in determining the total benefits associated with urban transformations, in order to achieve a fair sharing of profits between public and private entities.

  14. The browning value changes and spectral analysis on the Maillard reaction product from glucose and methionine model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Baarri, A. N.; Legowo, A. M.; Widayat

    2018-01-01

    D-glucose has been understood to provide the various effect on the reactivity in Maillard reaction resulting in the changes in physical performance of food product. Therefore this research was done to analyse physical appearance of Maillard reaction product made of D-glucose and methionine as a model system. The changes in browning value and spectral analysis model system were determined. The glucose-methionine model system was produced through the heating treatment at 50°C and RH 70% for 24 hours. The data were collected for every three hour using spectrophotometer. As result, browning value was elevated with the increase of heating time and remarkably high if compare to the D-glucose only. Furthermore, the spectral analysis showed that methionine turned the pattern of peak appearance. As conclusion, methionine raised the browning value and changed the pattern of spectral analysis in Maillard reaction model system.

  15. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makurat, Jan; Pillai, Aarati; Wieringa, Frank T; Chamnan, Chhoun; Krawinkel, Michael B

    2017-07-21

    The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs) or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC), iron, vitamin A (VitA), folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12). On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA). The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA), VitA (66% RDA), and folate (44% RDA), but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA) and iron (20% RDA). Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  16. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Makurat

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Methods: Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC, iron, vitamin A (VitA, folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12. Results: On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA. The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA, VitA (66% RDA, and folate (44% RDA, but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA and iron (20% RDA. Conclusions: Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  17. Predicting Calcium Values for Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients in Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Variables and Fuzzy Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Khalili-Zadeh-Mahani

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reducing unnecessary laboratory tests is an essential issue in the Intensive Care Unit. One solution for this issue is to predict the value of a laboratory test to specify the necessity of ordering the tests. The aim of this paper was to propose a clinical decision support system for predicting laboratory tests values. Calcium laboratory tests of three categories of patients, including upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and unspecified hemorrhage of gastrointestinal tract, have been selected as the case studies for this research. Method: In this research, the data have been collected from MIMIC-II database. For predicting calcium laboratory values, a Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno model is used and the input variables of the model are heart rate and previous value of calcium laboratory test. Results: The results showed that the values of calcium laboratory test for the understudy patients were predictable with an acceptable accuracy. In average, the mean absolute errors of the system for the three categories of the patients are 0.27, 0.29, and 0.28, respectively. Conclusion: In this research, using fuzzy modeling and two variables of heart rate and previous calcium laboratory values, a clinical decision support system was proposed for predicting laboratory values of three categories of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Using these two clinical values as input variables, the obtained results were acceptable and showed the capability of the proposed system in predicting calcium laboratory values. For achieving better results, the impact of more input variables should be studied. Since, the proposed system predicts the laboratory values instead of just predicting the necessity of the laboratory tests; it was more generalized than previous studies. So, the proposed method let the specialists make the decision depending on the condition of each patient.

  18. [Establishment of risk evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer and its predictive value].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Zhou, Rongjian; Zhang, Qi; Shu, Ping; Li, Haojie; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Liu, Fenglin; Chen, Weidong; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

    2017-01-25

    To establish an evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and to assess its clinical significance. Clinical and pathologic data of the consecutive cases of gastric cancer admitted between April 2015 and December 2015 in Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 710 patients were enrolled in the study after 18 patients with other distant metastasis were excluded. The correlations between peritoneal metastasis and different factors were studied through univariate (Pearson's test or Fisher's exact test) and multivariate analyses (Binary Logistic regression). Independent predictable factors for peritoneal metastasis were combined to establish a risk evaluation model (nomogram). The nomogram was created with R software using the 'rms' package. In the nomogram, each factor had different scores, and every patient could have a total score by adding all the scores of each factor. A higher total score represented higher risk of peritoneal metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the established nomogram. Delong. Delong. Clarke-Pearson test was used to compare the difference of the area under the curve (AUC). The cut-off value was determined by the AUC, when the ROC curve had the biggest AUC, the model had the best sensitivity and specificity. Among 710 patients, 47 patients had peritoneal metastasis (6.6%), including 30 male (30/506, 5.9%) and 17 female (17/204, 8.3%); 31 were ≥ 60 years old (31/429, 7.2%); 38 had tumor ≥ 3 cm(38/461, 8.2%). Lauren classification indicated that 2 patients were intestinal type(2/245, 0.8%), 8 patients were mixed type(8/208, 3.8%), 11 patients were diffuse type(11/142, 7.7%), and others had no associated data. CA19-9 of 13 patients was ≥ 37 kU/L(13/61, 21.3%); CA125 of 11 patients was ≥ 35 kU/L(11/36, 30.6%); CA72-4 of 11 patients was ≥ 10 kU/L(11/39, 28

  19. A cautionary note on the use of nonparametric bootstrap for estimating uncertainties in extreme value models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 12 (2008), s. 3236-3251 ISSN 1558-8424 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/1535 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : bootstrap * resampling * extreme value analysis * Generalized extreme value distribution * Gumbel distribution Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.761, year: 2008

  20. Outlier Removal in Model-Based Missing Value Imputation for Medical Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Wei Huang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many real-world medical datasets contain some proportion of missing (attribute values. In general, missing value imputation can be performed to solve this problem, which is to provide estimations for the missing values by a reasoning process based on the (complete observed data. However, if the observed data contain some noisy information or outliers, the estimations of the missing values may not be reliable or may even be quite different from the real values. The aim of this paper is to examine whether a combination of instance selection from the observed data and missing value imputation offers better performance than performing missing value imputation alone. In particular, three instance selection algorithms, DROP3, GA, and IB3, and three imputation algorithms, KNNI, MLP, and SVM, are used in order to find out the best combination. The experimental results show that that performing instance selection can have a positive impact on missing value imputation over the numerical data type of medical datasets, and specific combinations of instance selection and imputation methods can improve the imputation results over the mixed data type of medical datasets. However, instance selection does not have a definitely positive impact on the imputation result for categorical medical datasets.

  1. A Categorization Model for Educational Values of the History of Mathematics: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-qin; Qi, Chun-yan; Wang, Ke

    2017-01-01

    There is not a clear consensus on the categorization framework of the educational values of the history of mathematics. By analyzing 20 Chinese teaching cases on integrating the history of mathematics into mathematics teaching based on the relevant literature, this study examined a new categorization framework of the educational values of the…

  2. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  3. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Phase 1, Task 2: Select Value Propositions/Business Model for Further Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.

    2008-04-01

    The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Value Propositions Workshop held in Washington, D.C. in December 2007 served as the Task 1 Milestone for this study. Feedback from all five Workshop breakout sessions has been documented in a Workshop Summary Report, which can be found at www.sentech.org/phev. In this report, the project team compiled and presented a comprehensive list of potential value propositions that would later serve as a 'grab bag' of business model components in Task 2. After convening with the Guidance and Evaluation Committee and other PHEV stakeholders during the Workshop, several improvements to the technical approach were identified and incorporated into the project plan to present a more realistic and accurate case study and evaluation. The assumptions and modifications that will have the greatest impact on the case study selection process in Task 2 are described in more detail in this deliverable. The objective of Task 2 is to identify the combination of value propositions that is believed to be achievable by 2030 and collectively hold promise for a sustainable PHEV market by 2030. This deliverable outlines what the project team (with input from the Committee) has defined as its primary scenario to be tested in depth for the remainder of Phase 1. Plans for the second and third highest priority/probability business scenarios are also described in this deliverable as proposed follow up case studies in Phase 2. As part of each case study description, the proposed utility system (or subsystem), PHEV market segment, and facilities/buildings are defined.

  4. A new fuzzy regression model based on interval-valued fuzzy neural network and its applications to management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somaye Yeylaghi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel hybrid method based on interval-valued fuzzy neural network for approximate of interval-valued fuzzy regression models, is presented. The work of this paper is an expansion of the research of real fuzzy regression models. In this paper interval-valued fuzzy neural network (IVFNN can be trained with crisp and interval-valued fuzzy data. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a large field called neural computing or soft computing. Moreover, in order to find the approximate parameters, a simple algorithm from the cost function of the fuzzy neural network is proposed. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical examples and compare this method with existing methods.

  5. A two-stage value chain model for vegetable marketing chain efficiency evaluation: A transaction cost approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lu Hualiang

    2006-01-01

    We applied a two-stage value chain model to investigate the effects of input application and occasional transaction costs on vegetable marketing chain efficiencies with a farm household-level data set. In the first stage, the production efficiencies with the combination of resource endowments, capital and managerial inputs, and production techniques were evaluated; then at the second stage, the marketing technical efficiencies were determined under the marketing value of the vegetables for th...

  6. Personal values, social capital and higher education student career decidedness: a new ‘protean’ informed model

    OpenAIRE

    Fearon, C.; Nachmias, S.; McLaughlin, H.; Jackson, S.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the role of personal values as motivational antecedents for understanding HE student career decidedness among university business school (UBS) students. We propose a new ‘protean’ informed HE student career decidedness model for theorizing how both personal values and social capital mediators (student social capital; personal, social and enterprise skills; access to resources) help in the student-centric and self-directed processes of career decision-making. A mixed me...

  7. Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J.; Prevot, A.S.H.; Chenghsuan Lu; Chang, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NO x and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NO x and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NO y , O 3 /NO z , HCHO/NO y , and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 on the definition of NO x and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O 3 /NO z and HCHO/NO y indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NO y and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work. (author)

  8. An empirical survey on perceived value from tourism destination based on brand equity model: A case study of Qeshm Island

    OpenAIRE

    Vahid Qaemi

    2012-01-01

    Tourism destination brand equity is defined as all assets (or debts) of brands provided with name and symbol of tourism destination to make changes in value services of experiences. In many cases, brand equity is more than physical assets. This survey performs an investigation to identify effective factors in tourism destination equity, cause and affects relationships, and proposes a model for perceived value of tourism destination. The proposed study is performed in one of free islands named...

  9. Applying Ethnic Equivalence and Cultural Values Models to African-American Teens' Perceptions of Parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamborn, Susie D.; Felbab, Amanda J.

    2003-01-01

    Study evaluated both the parenting styles and family ecologies models with interview responses from African American adolescents. Analyses contrasted each model with a joint model for predicting self esteem, self reliance, work orientation, and ethnic identity. Overall, findings suggest that a joint model that combines elements from both models…

  10. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Value-Added Agriculture: Approach of Vector Autoregresive Bayesian Model (BVAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Pishbahar

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. To answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. In the present study, the Bayesian Vector autoregresive model and seasonality data for the years between 1991 and 2013 was used to determine the impact of monetary policy on value-added agriculture. Predicts of Vector autoregresive model are usually divertaed due to a lot of parameters in the model. Bayesian vector autoregresive model estimates more reliable predictions due to reducing the number of included parametrs and considering the former models. Compared to the Vector Autoregressive model, the coefficients are estimated more accurately. Based on the results of RMSE in this study, previous function Nrmal-Vyshart was identified as a suitable previous disteribution. According to the results of the impulse response function, the sudden effects of shocks in macroeconomic variables on the value added in agriculture and domestic venture capital are stable. The effects on the exchange rates, tax revenues and monetary will bemoderated after 7, 5 and 4periods. Monetary policy shocks ,in the first half of the year, increased the value added of agriculture, while in the second half of the year had a depressing effect on the value added.

  11. Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

    2016-07-01

    Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.

  12. Testing and Validation of a Hierarchical Values-Attitudes Model in the Context of Green Food in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perrea, Toula; Grunert, Klaus G; Krystallis Krontalis, Athanasios

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – Values-attitudes hierarchical models are quite frequent in the consumer behaviour literature. In attitudinal models specific to food produced in an environmentally friendly way (i.e. “green” food), past research evidence mainly originating in Western cultures posits that the strongest path...... of the model can be found among collectivistic consumer values, general environmental attitudes, and attitudes specific to green food. On the other hand, in non-Western cultures (i.e. China), green food (e.g. organic) is perceived by consumers as safer to consume. With this as point of departure, the present...... 2009 through a mall-intercept method. A total number of 479 respondents were recruited, equally distributed among the six cities. Findings – Collectivistic values and environmental attitudes were still found to be strong determinants of Chinese consumers’ attitudes towards green foods; contrary...

  13. MODELS THAT EVALUATE THE VALUE OF THE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS. RECOGNITION AND MEASUREMENT UNDER INTERNATIONAL RULES

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Gruiescu; Corina Ioanăs; Adriana Florina Popa

    2010-01-01

    As the present financial markets have broadened and deepened, increasing numbers of firms are utilizing innovative financial instruments to accomplish business objectives and enhance shareholder value. It is crucial for the financial managers to keep abreast of available financial instruments, the business settings in which these instruments can create—and destroy—value, and modern analysis techniques for these instruments. A financial manager also should possess a basic understanding of the ...

  14. Applying Regression Models with Mixed Frequency Data in Modeling and Prediction of Iran's Wheat Import Value (Generalized OLS-based ARDL Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mitra jalerajabi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the importance of the import management, this study applies generalized ARDL approach to estimate MIDAS regression for wheat import value and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those competed by the regression with adjusted data model. Mixed frequency sampling models aim to extract information with high frequency indicators so that independent variables with lower frequencies are modeled and foorcasted. Due to a more precise identification of the relationships among the variables, more accurate prediction is expected. Based on the results of both estimated regression with adjusted frequency models and MIDAS for the years 1978-2003 as a training period, wheat import value with internal products and exchange rate was positively related, while the relative price variable had an adverse relation with the Iran's wheat import value. Based on the results from the conventional statistics such as RMSE, MAD, MAPE and the statistical significance, MIDAS models using data sets of annual wheat import value, internal products, relative price and seasonal exchange rate significantly improves prediction of annual wheat import value for the years2004-2008 as a testing period. Hence, it is recommended that applying prediction approaches with mixed data improves modeling and prediction of agricultural import value, especially for strategic import products.

  15. Applying ethnic equivalence and cultural values models to African-American teens' perceptions of parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamborn, Susie D; Felbab, Amanda J

    2003-10-01

    This study evaluated both the parenting styles and family ecologies models with interview responses from 93 14- and 15-year-old African-American adolescents. The parenting styles model was more strongly represented in both open-ended and structured interview responses. Using variables from the structured interview as independent variables, regression analyses contrasted each model with a joint model for predicting self-esteem, self-reliance, work orientation, and ethnic identity. Overall, the findings suggest that a joint model that combines elements from both models provides a richer understanding of African-American families.

  16. The multi-criteria optimization for the formation of the multiple-valued logic model of a robotic agent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykovsky, A Yu; Sherbakov, A A

    2016-01-01

    The C-valued Allen-Givone algebra is the attractive tool for modeling of a robotic agent, but it requires the consensus method of minimization for the simplification of logic expressions. This procedure substitutes some undefined states of the function for the maximal truth value, thus extending the initially given truth table. This further creates the problem of different formal representations for the same initially given function. The multi-criteria optimization is proposed for the deliberate choice of undefined states and model formation. (paper)

  17. Our calibrated model has poor predictive value: An example from the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, J.N.; Ballester, P.J.; Tavassoli, Z.; King, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    It is often assumed that once a model has been calibrated to measurements then it will have some level of predictive capability, although this may be limited. If the model does not have predictive capability then the assumption is that the model needs to be improved in some way. Using an example from the petroleum industry, we show that cases can exit where calibrated models have limited predictive capability. This occurs even when there is no modelling error present. It is also shown that the introduction of a small modelling error can make it impossible to obtain any models with useful predictive capability. We have been unable to find ways of identifying which calibrated models will have some predictive capacity and those which will not

  18. Random forest predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity with small number of prospects and data with missing values in Abra (Philippines)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Laborte, Alice G.

    2015-01-01

    Machine learning methods that have been used in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity (e.g., artificial neural networks) invariably require large number of training prospect/locations and are unable to handle missing values in certain evidential data. The Random Forests (RF) algorithm, which is a machine learning method, has recently been applied to data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity, and so it is instructive to further study its efficacy in this particular field. This case study, carried out using data from Abra (Philippines), examines (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with a few (i.e., individual layers of evidential data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in evidential data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in WofE modeling values are simply represented by zero weights. Therefore, the RF algorithm is potentially more useful than existing methods that are currently used for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. In particular, it is not a purely black-box method like artificial neural networks in the context of data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity. However, further testing of the method in other areas with a few mineral occurrences is needed to fully investigate its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.

  19. Multi-stage IT project evaluation: The flexibility value obtained by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik (2004) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Fathi; Guermazi, Dorra

    2009-11-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a multi-stage information technology investment project, by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik's (2004) model, which takes into account specific features of IT projects and considers the real option to suspend investment at each stage. We present a particular case of the model where the project value is the solution of an optimal control problem with a single state variable. In this case, the model is more intuitive and tractable. The case study confirms the practical potential of the model and highlights the importance of the real-option approach compared to classical discounted cash flow techniques in the valuation of IT projects.

  20. Determination of Hamiltonian matrix for IBM4 and compare it is self value with shells model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slyman, S.; Hadad, S.; Souman, H.

    2004-01-01

    The Hamiltonian is determined using the procedure OAI and the mapping of (IBM4) states into the shell model, which is based on the seniority classification scheme. A boson sub-matrix of the shell model Hamiltonian for the (sd) 4 configuration is constructed, and is proved to produce the same eigenvalues as the shell model Hamiltonian for the corresponding fermion states. (authors)

  1. Value shaping in networked business modeling : Case studies of sustainability-oriented innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oskam, I.F.; Bossink, Bart; de Man, Ard-Pieter

    2018-01-01

    A stream of literature is emerging where network development and business modeling intersect. Various authors emphasize that networks influence business models. This paper extends this stream of literature by studying two cases in which we analyze how business modeling and networking interact over

  2. Dynamic modeling of uncertainty in the planned values of investments in petrochemical and refining projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vianello, Juliano Melquiades; Costa, Leticia; Teixeira, José Paulo

    2014-01-01

    There is a large gap between the planned value of investment in a project and its financial implementation. This fact creates a mismatch between the planned and effectively achieved net present value (NPV) of the project. Considering the project portfolio of a company, this could even threaten your solvency in the future. Therefore, a quantitative-risk analysis that takes into account different possible scenarios for these values of investment is extremely important to measure statistically the real value of a project. The aim of this paper is to present the reasons for this mismatch between planned and executed investments and, from this study, obtain a suitable stochastic process to generate different scenarios for these investments in the oil industry. Although the results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, also called in the oil industry as downstream, the methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry. - Highlights: • We measure statistically the real value of an investment project. • We present the reasons for the mismatch between planned and executed investments. • We obtain a stochastic process to generate scenarios for oil industry investments. • Results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, downstream. • The methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry

  3. Climate change scenarios of temperature extremes evaluated using extreme value models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, Jan; Picek, Jan; Beranova, Romana; Plavcova, Eva

    2014-05-01

    The study compares statistical models for estimating high quantiles of daily temperatures based on the homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson process, and their applications in climate model simulations. Both types of the models make use of non-stationary peaks-over-threshold method and the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) for modelling extremes, but they differ in how the dependence of the model parameters on time index is captured. The homogeneous Poisson process model assumes that the intensity of the process is constant and the threshold used to delimit extremes changes with time; the non-homogeneous Poisson process assumes that the intensity of the process depends on time while the threshold is kept constant (Coles 2001). The model for time-dependency of the GPD parameters is selected according to the likelihood ratio test. Statistical arguments are provided to support the homogeneous Poisson process model, in which temporal dependence of the threshold is modelled in terms of regression quantiles (Kysely et al. 2010). Dependence of the results on the quantile chosen for the threshold (95-99%) is evaluated. The extreme value models are applied to analyse scenarios of changes in high quantiles of daily temperatures (20-yr and 100-yr return values) in transient simulations of several GCMs and RCMs for the 21st century. References: Coles S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer, 208 pp. Kysely J., Picek J., Beranova R. (2010) Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold. Global and Planetary Change, 72, 55-68.

  4. Choosing ICT Tools: Proposition of a Model to Deliver Value for Clients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Grise

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Several tools of Information and Communication Technology (ICT are being used nowadays to support customer relationship processes. Literature review shows that, in the selection and deployment of these tools, internal goals of productivity and efficiency predominate. In just a few situations, the objective is offering higher value to the client. Therefore, the objective of this research was to propose a process of selection and deployment of ICT tools geared towards offering higher value, in the business to business market. Primary data were collected in depth interviews with high-level executives responsible for ICT areas. For the content analysis, the ATLAS-ti software was used, searching for recurrent themes. A value oriented process for choosing and implementing ICT tools was then proposed.

  5. A Categorization Model for Educational Values of the History of Mathematics. An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-qin; Qi, Chun-yan; Wang, Ke

    2017-11-01

    There is not a clear consensus on the categorization framework of the educational values of the history of mathematics. By analyzing 20 Chinese teaching cases on integrating the history of mathematics into mathematics teaching based on the relevant literature, this study examined a new categorization framework of the educational values of the history of mathematics by combining the objectives of high school mathematics curriculum in China. This framework includes six dimensions: the harmony of knowledge, the beauty of ideas or methods, the pleasure of inquiries, the improvement of capabilities, the charm of cultures, and the availability of moral education. The results show that this framework better explained the all-educational values of the history of mathematics that all teaching cases showed. Therefore, the framework can guide teachers to better integrate the history of mathematics into teaching.

  6. Modeling the Economic Value of Blue Carbon in Delaware Estuary Wetlands: Historic Estimates and Future Projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Edward W; Shirazi, Yosef; Parsons, George R; Hoagland, Porter; Sommerfield, Christopher K

    2018-01-15

    Coastal wetlands sequester large amounts of carbon in their soils, effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and acting as a carbon sink. In this paper, we estimate the economic value of carbon sequestered by wetlands in the Delaware Estuary. We estimate the value of the current stock of wetlands, the value of the historic loss of wetlands, and under a range of different scenarios the expected future loss. We use historical topographic maps and Land Cover inventories of the Delaware Estuary to measure the acreage of tidal wetlands in nine distinct time periods from 1778 to 2011. Using these data, we estimate an annual rate of wetland loss of 1.03 km 2 . Coupling observed land cover change with exogenous factors including sea-level rise, population pressure, and channel dredging, we estimate changes in tidal wetland area under a range of future scenarios for our expected future economic loss estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. FDS Modeling of the Sensitivity of the Smoke Potential Values Used in Fire Safety Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corches, Andrei-Mircea; Ulriksen, Lene; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    are less dependent upon the values of the input parameters. The current approach is considered a valuable contribution, because it creates an overview of how important it is to use the correct values for the smoke potential and the effective heat of combustion in fire safety strategies and for fire safety......Performance-based analysis is commonly used for fire safety strategies in Denmark. In order to evaluate the safety level of buildings, a time comparison between the available safe egress time (ASET) and the required safe egress time (RSET) is established. As the buildings are becoming more complex...... design. In addition, it provides a database of values that can be used in fire safety strategies according to the design fire scenario....

  8. Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomon Joshua A

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. Methods Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. Results Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99. Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. Conclusions

  9. The value of adding optics to ecosystem models: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujii

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Many ecosystem models have been developed to study the ocean's biogeochemical properties, but most of these models use simple formulations to describe light penetration and spectral quality. Here, an optical model is coupled with a previously published ecosystem model that explicitly represents two phytoplankton (picoplankton and diatoms and two zooplankton functional groups, as well as multiple nutrients and detritus. Surface ocean color fields and subsurface light fields are calculated by coupling the ecosystem model with an optical model that relates biogeochemical standing stocks with inherent optical properties (absorption, scattering; this provides input to a commercially available radiative transfer model (Ecolight. We apply this bio-optical model to the equatorial Pacific upwelling region, and find the model to be capable of reproducing many measured optical properties and key biogeochemical processes in this region. Our model results suggest that non-algal particles largely contribute to the total scattering or attenuation (>50% at 660 nm but have a much smaller contribution to particulate absorption (<20% at 440 nm, while picoplankton dominate the total phytoplankton absorption (>95% at 440 nm. These results are consistent with the field observations. In order to achieve such good agreement between data and model results, however, key model parameters, for which no field data are available, have to be constrained. Sensitivity analysis of the model results to optical parameters reveals a significant role played by colored dissolved organic matter through its influence on the quantity and quality of the ambient light. Coupling explicit optics to an ecosystem model provides advantages in generating: (1 a more accurate subsurface light-field, which is important for light sensitive biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis and photo-oxidation, (2 additional constraints on model parameters that help to reduce uncertainties in

  10. Customer segmentation model based on value generation for marketing strategies formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Julio Cuadros

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available When deciding in which segment to invest or how to distribute the marketing budget, managers generally take risks in making decisions without considering the real impact every client or segment has over organizational profits. In this paper, a segmentation framework is proposed that considers, firstly, the calculation of customer lifetime value, the current value, and client loyalty, and then the building of client segments by self-organized maps. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with an empirical study in a cane sugar mill where a total of 9 segments of interest were identified for decision making.

  11. The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mingjian; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Mike; Frank, Kathryn; Linhoss, Anna

    2015-10-01

    Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high-resolution data are likely to not be available in some data-poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time-consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)-based digital elevation data and process-based coastal land-cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple "bathtub" models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub-NED, Bathtub-Lidar, and SLAMM-Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model-dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how

  12. Combined analyses of costs, market value and eco-costs in circular business models : eco-efficient value creation in remanufacturing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogtländer, J.G.; Scheepens, A.E.; Bocken, N.M.P.; Peck, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    Eco-efficient Value Creation is a method to analyse innovative product and service design together with circular business strategies. The method is based on combined analyses of the costs, market value (perceived customer value) and eco-costs. This provides a prevention-based single indicator for

  13. The role of social value creation in business model formulation at the bottom of the pyramid - Implications for MNEs?

    OpenAIRE

    Sinkovics, Noemi; Sinkovics, Rudolf; Yamin, Mo

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of how social value creation and business models may be interrelated in the context of the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) business formation. We develop our analysis around five case studies of actual businesses set up in rural India by people in the BOP. We attempt to draw implications from the performance of the business models in the BOP for what MNE strategies of engagement with the BOP may learn from the processes we analysed.

  14. Development of a three dimensional homogeneous calculation model for the BFS-62 critical experiment. Preparation of adjusted equivalent measured values for sodium void reactivity values. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manturov, G.; Semenov, M.; Seregin, A.; Lykova, L.

    2004-01-01

    The BFS-62 critical experiments are currently used as 'benchmark' for verification of IPPE codes and nuclear data, which have been used in the study of loading a significant amount of Pu in fast reactors. The BFS-62 experiments have been performed at BFS-2 critical facility of IPPE (Obninsk). The experimental program has been arranged in such a way that the effect of replacement of uranium dioxied blanket by the steel reflector as well as the effect of replacing UOX by MOX on the main characteristics of the reactor model was studied. Wide experimental program, including measurements of the criticality-keff, spectral indices, radial and axial fission rate distributions, control rod mock-up worth, sodium void reactivity effect SVRE and some other important nuclear physics parameters, was fulfilled in the core. Series of 4 BFS-62 critical assemblies have been designed for studying the changes in BN-600 reactor physics from existing state to hybrid core. All the assemblies are modeling the reactor state prior to refueling, i.e. with all control rod mock-ups withdrawn from the core. The following items are chosen for the analysis in this report: Description of the critical assembly BFS-62-3A as the 3rd assembly in a series of 4 BFS critical assemblies studying BN-600 reactor with MOX-UOX hybrid zone and steel reflector; Development of a 3D homogeneous calculation model for the BFS-62-3A critical experiment as the mock-up of BN-600 reactor with hybrid zone and steel reflector; Evaluation of measured nuclear physics parameters keff and SVRE (sodium void reactivity effect); Preparation of adjusted equivalent measured values for keff and SVRE. Main series of calculations are performed using 3D HEX-Z diffusion code TRIGEX in 26 groups, with the ABBN-93 cross-section set. In addition, precise calculations are made, in 299 groups and Ps-approximation in scattering, by Monte-Carlo code MMKKENO and discrete ordinate code TWODANT. All calculations are based on the common system

  15. Accuracies and Contrasts of Models of the Diffusion-weighted-dependent Attenuation of the Mri Signal at Intermediate -values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaud Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The diffusion-weighted-dependent attenuation of the MRI signal E ( b is extremely sensitive to microstructural features. The aim of this study was to determine which mathematical model of the E ( b signal most accurately describes it in the brain. The models compared were the monoexponential model, the stretched exponential model, the truncated cumulant expansion (TCE model, the biexponential model, and the triexponential model. Acquisition was performed with nine b -values up to 2500 s/mm 2 in 12 healthy volunteers. The goodness-of-fit was studied with F -tests and with the Akaike information criterion. Tissue contrasts were differentiated with a multiple comparison corrected nonparametric analysis of variance. F -test showed that the TCE model was better than the biexponential model in gray and white matter. Corrected Akaike information criterion showed that the TCE model has the best accuracy and produced the most reliable contrasts in white matter among all models studied. In conclusion, the TCE model was found to be the best model to infer the microstructural properties of brain tissue.

  16. The impact of MCS models and EFAC values on the dose simulation for a proton pencil beam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shih-Kuan; Chiang, Bing-Hao; Lee, Chung-Chi; Tung, Chuan-Jong; Hong, Ji-Hong; Chao, Tsi-Chian

    2017-08-01

    The Multiple Coulomb Scattering (MCS) model plays an important role in accurate MC simulation, especially for small field applications. The Rossi model is used in MCNPX 2.7.0, and the Lewis model in Geant4.9.6.p02. These two models may generate very different angular and spatial distributions in small field proton dosimetry. Beside angular and spatial distributions, step size is also an important issue that causes path length effects. The Energy Fraction (EFAC) value can be used in MCNPX 2.7.0 to control step sizes of MCS. In this study, we use MCNPX 2.7.0, Geant4.9.6.p02, and one pencil beam algorithm to evaluate the effect of dose deposition because of different MCS models and different EFAC values in proton disequilibrium situation. Different MCS models agree well with each other under a proton equilibrium situation. Under proton disequilibrium situations, the MCNPX and Geant4 results, however, show a significant deviation (up to 43%). In addition, the path length effects are more significant when EFAC is equal to 0.917 and 0.94 in small field proton dosimetry, and using a 0.97 EFAC value is the best for both accuracy and efficiency

  17. Exploring the Relationship Between Business Model Innovation, Corporate Sustainability, and Organisational Values within the Fashion Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Esben Rahbek Gjerdrum; Gwozdz, Wencke; Hvass, Kerli Kant

    2016-01-01

    their origin in the fundamental principles guiding the organisation. In addition, the study also finds a positive relationship between the core organisational values and financial performance. The analysis of the paper is based on survey responses from 492 managers within the Swedish fashion industry....

  18. A review of the modelling of water values in different use sectors in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Input/output analysis indicates that South African agriculture is a less productive user of water in terms of gross income generated per unit of water. ... As water is transferred in future from agriculture to domestic use and industrial use, the value (rents) now attached to land will transfer to water and real water prices will ...

  19. The Course Valuation Model and 10 Steps to Increase Course Value: The Business Communication Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lori A.

    2015-01-01

    Communication competence is a leading agent in professional success and the ability most sought after by employers. Educational institutions benefit by producing students with such sought-after skills. However, there is a disconnect between skills practitioner stakeholders desire and what graduates deliver. Strengthening the value of a business…

  20. Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models with Desk-Level Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Berkowitz, Jeremy; Pelletier, Denis

    We present new evidence on disaggregated profit and loss (P/L) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts obtained from a large international commercial bank. Our dataset includes the actual daily P/L generated by four separate business lines within the bank. All four business lines are involved...

  1. Beyond Traditional School Value-Added Models: A Multilevel Analysis of Complex School Effects in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troncoso, Patricio; Pampaka, Maria; Olsen, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    School value-added studies have largely demonstrated the effects of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the schools and the pupils on performance in standardised tests. Traditionally, these studies have assessed the variation coming only from the schools and the pupils. However, recent studies have shown that the analysis of academic…

  2. Oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in tree rings: how well do models predict observed values?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waterhouse, JS

    2002-07-30

    Full Text Available Annual oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in the alpha-cellulose of the latewood of oak (Quercus robur L.) growing on well-drained ground in Norfolk, UK have been measured. The authors have compared the observed values of isotope ratios with those...

  3. Evaluation of the value of radar QPE data and rain gauge data for hydrological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Xin; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-01-01

    Weather radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is in principle superior to the areal precipitation estimated by using rain gauge data only, and therefore has become increasingly popular in applications such as hydrological modeling. The present study investigates the potential...... rainfall and subsequently the simulated hydrological responses. A headwater catchment located in western Denmark is chosen as the study site. Two hydrological models are built using the MIKE SHE code, where they have identical model structures expect for the rainfall forcing: one model is based on rain...... gauge interpolated rainfall, while the other is based on radar QPE which is a combination of both radar and rain gauge information. The two hydrological models are inversely calibrated and then validated against field observations. The model results show that the improvement introduced by using radar...

  4. Pitfalls in urinary stone identification using CT attenuation values: Are we getting the same information on different scanner models?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grosjean, Romain, E-mail: r.grosjean@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Daudon, Michel, E-mail: michel.daudon@tnn.aphp.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Chammas, Mario F., E-mail: mariochammas@usp.br [University of Sao Paulo – Division of Urology, Av. Dr. Enéas de Carvalho Aguiar, 255, 7" o Andar – s. 7123, São Paulo (Brazil); Claudon, Michel, E-mail: m.claudon@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Eschwege, Pascal, E-mail: peschwege@yahoo.com [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Felblinger, Jacques, E-mail: j.felblinger@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Hubert, Jacques, E-mail: j.hubert@chu-nancy.fr [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France)

    2013-08-15

    Introduction: Evaluate the capability of different Computed Tomography scanners to determine urinary stone compositions based on CT attenuation values and to evaluate potential differences between each model. Methods: 241 human urinary stones were obtained and their biochemical composition determined. Four different CT scanners (Siemens, Philips, GEMS and Toshiba) were evaluated. Mean CT-attenuation values and the standard deviation were recorded separately and compared with a t-paired test. Results: For all tested CT scanners, when the classification of the various types of stones was arranged according to the mean CT-attenuation values and to the confidence interval, large overlappings between stone types were highlighted. The t-paired test showed that most stone types could not be identified. Some types of stones presented mean CT attenuation values significantly different from one CT scanner to another. At 80 kV, the mean CT attenuation values obtained with the Toshiba Aquilion were significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens Sensation. On the other hand, mean values obtained with the Philips Brilliance were all significantly equal to those obtained with the Siemens Sensation and with the Toshiba Aquilion. At 120 kV mean CT attenuation values of uric acid, cystine and struvite stones obtained with the Philips model are significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens and the Toshiba but equal to those obtained with the GE 64. Conclusions: According to our study, there is a great variability when different brands and models of scanners are compared directly. Furthermore, the CT scan analysis and HU evaluation appears to gather insufficient information in order to characterize and identify the composition of renal stones.

  5. Modelling the Perceived Value of Compulsory English Language Education in Undergraduate Non-Language Majors of Japanese Nationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivers, Damian J.

    2012-01-01

    Adopting mixed methods of data collection and analysis, the current study models the "perceived value of compulsory English language education" in a sample of 138 undergraduate non-language majors of Japanese nationality at a national university in Japan. During the orientation period of a compulsory 15-week English language programme,…

  6. Adjust cut-off values of immunohistochemistry models to predict risk of distant recurrence in invasive breast carcinoma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Ying Chen

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: It is necessary to adjust the cut-off values of IHC-based prognostic models to fit the purpose. If the estimated risk is clearly high or low, it may be reasonable to omit multigene assays when cost is a consideration.

  7. The Value of Decision Analytical Modeling in Surgical Research: An Example of Laparoscopic Versus Open Distal Pancreatectomy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tax, Casper; Govaert, Paulien H. M.; Stommel, Martijn W. J.; Besselink, Marc G. H.; Gooszen, Hein G.; Rovers, Maroeska M.

    2017-01-01

    To illustrate how decision modeling may identify relevant uncertainty and can preclude or identify areas of future research in surgery. To optimize use of research resources, a tool is needed that assists in identifying relevant uncertainties and the added value of reducing these uncertainties. The

  8. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  10. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frieda Beauregard

    Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study

  11. Using Random Utility Models to Estimate the Recreational Value of Estuarine Resources

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshiaki Kaoru; V. Kerry Smith; Jin Long Liu

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we describe a model using a household production framework to link measures of nonpoint source pollution to fishing quality and a random utility model to describe how that quality influences sport fishing parties' decisions in North Carolina. The results provide clear support for using a model that evaluates the effects of pollution on the activities and decisions associated with the fishing activity once a trip is taken. Site selection decisions are then conditioned on the anti...

  12. Analyzing Patients' Values by Applying Cluster Analysis and LRFM Model in a Pediatric Dental Clinic in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shih-Yen; Liu, Chih-Wei

    2014-01-01

    This study combines cluster analysis and LRFM (length, recency, frequency, and monetary) model in a pediatric dental clinic in Taiwan to analyze patients' values. A two-stage approach by self-organizing maps and K-means method is applied to segment 1,462 patients into twelve clusters. The average values of L, R, and F excluding monetary covered by national health insurance program are computed for each cluster. In addition, customer value matrix is used to analyze customer values of twelve clusters in terms of frequency and monetary. Customer relationship matrix considering length and recency is also applied to classify different types of customers from these twelve clusters. The results show that three clusters can be classified into loyal patients with L, R, and F values greater than the respective average L, R, and F values, while three clusters can be viewed as lost patients without any variable above the average values of L, R, and F. When different types of patients are identified, marketing strategies can be designed to meet different patients' needs. PMID:25045741

  13. Convergence of a continuous BGK model for initial boundary-value problems for conservation laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Driss Seghir

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available We consider a scalar conservation law in the quarter plane. This equation is approximated in a continuous kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK model. The convergence of the model towards the unique entropy solution is established in the space of functions of bounded variation, using kinetic entropy inequalities, without special restriction on the flux nor on the equilibrium problem's data. As an application, we establish the hydrodynamic limit for a $2imes2$ relaxation system with general data. Also we construct a new family of convergent continuous BGK models with simple maxwellians different from the $chi$ models.

  14. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: influence on treatment decision and expected value of information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Malcolm J; Welton, Nicky J; Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to estimation of Markov models with data from randomized controlled trials tend either to make a judgment about which transition(s) treatments act on, or they assume that treatment has a separate effect on every transition. An alternative is to fit a series of models that assume that treatment acts on specific transitions. Investigators can then choose among alternative models using goodness-of-fit statistics. However, structural uncertainty about any chosen parameterization will remain and this may have implications for the resulting decision and the need for further research. We describe a Bayesian approach to model estimation, and model selection. Structural uncertainty about which parameterization to use is accounted for using model averaging and we developed a formula for calculating the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in averaged models. Marginal posterior distributions are generated for each of the cost-effectiveness parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGS, or Monte-Carlo simulation in Excel (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA). We illustrate the approach with an example of treatments for asthma using aggregate-level data from a connected network of four treatments compared in three pair-wise randomized controlled trials. The standard errors of incremental net benefit using structured models is reduced by up to eight- or ninefold compared to the unstructured models, and the expected loss attaching to decision uncertainty by factors of several hundreds. Model averaging had considerable influence on the EVPI. Alternative structural assumptions can alter the treatment decision and have an overwhelming effect on model uncertainty and expected value of information. Structural uncertainty can be accounted for by model averaging, and the EVPI can be calculated for averaged models. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  15. Monte Carlo-based evaluation of S-values in mouse models for positron-emitting radionuclides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Zaidi, Habib

    2013-01-01

    In addition to being a powerful clinical tool, Positron emission tomography (PET) is also used in small laboratory animal research to visualize and track certain molecular processes associated with diseases such as cancer, heart disease and neurological disorders in living small animal models of disease. However, dosimetric characteristics in small animal PET imaging are usually overlooked, though the radiation dose may not be negligible. In this work, we constructed 17 mouse models of different body mass and size based on the realistic four-dimensional MOBY mouse model. Particle (photons, electrons and positrons) transport using the Monte Carlo method was performed to calculate the absorbed fractions and S-values for eight positron-emitting radionuclides (C-11, N-13, O-15, F-18, Cu-64, Ga-68, Y-86 and I-124). Among these radionuclides, O-15 emits positrons with high energy and frequency and produces the highest self-absorbed S-values in each organ, while Y-86 emits γ-rays with high energy and frequency which results in the highest cross-absorbed S-values for non-neighbouring organs. Differences between S-values for self-irradiated organs were between 2% and 3%/g difference in body weight for most organs. For organs irradiating other organs outside the splanchnocoele (i.e. brain, testis and bladder), differences between S-values were lower than 1%/g. These appealing results can be used to assess variations in small animal dosimetry as a function of total-body mass. The generated database of S-values for various radionuclides can be used in the assessment of radiation dose to mice from different radiotracers in small animal PET experiments, thus offering quantitative figures for comparative dosimetry research in small animal models.

  16. Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank

    2013-04-01

    In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source

  17. Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heydari, Somayeh; Siddiqui, Afzal

    2010-01-01

    Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.

  18. Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

  19. An eoq model for weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalit Mohan Pradhan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the present competitive business scenario researchers have developed various inventory models for deteriorating items considering various practical situations for better inventory control. Permissible delay in payments with various demands and deteriorations is considerably a new concept introduced in developing various inventory models. These models are very useful for both the consumers and the manufacturer. Methods: In the present work an inventory model has been developed for a three parameter Weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system. Here we have considered a single item for developing the model. Results and conclusion: Optimal order quantity, optimal cycle time and total variable cost during a cycle have been derived for the proposed inventory model. The results obtained in this paper have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples and sensitivity analysis.   

  20. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  1. Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-01-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  2. Modelling Joint Decision Making Processes Involving Emotion-Related Valuing and Mutual Empathic Understanding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a social agent model for joint decision making is presented addressing the role of mutually acknowledged empathic understanding in the decision making. The model is based on principles from recent neurological theories on mirror neurons, internal simulation, and emotion-related

  3. Creating a Balanced Value Proposition. Exploring the Advanced Business Creation Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carvalho, J.M.S.; Jonker, J.

    2015-01-01

    This conceptual paper explores the relationships between four dimensions that are important for start-ups: entrepreneurship, business models, strategic planning, and the development of a business plan. Based on an exploration of these dimensions, we present an innovative model - Advanced Business

  4. Subjective Values of Quality of Life Dimensions in Elderly People. A SEM Preference Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elosua, Paula

    2011-01-01

    This article proposes a Thurstonian model in the framework of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to assess preferences among quality of life dimensions for the elderly. Data were gathered by a paired comparison design in a sample comprised of 323 people aged from 65 to 94 years old. Five dimensions of quality of life were evaluated: Health,…

  5. Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in catchment conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O. Fovet; L. Ruiz; M. Hrachowitz; M. Faucheux; C. Gascuel-Odoux

    2015-01-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system-internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is...

  6. Using nonparametrics to specify a model to measure the value of travel time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens

    2007-01-01

    Using a range of nonparametric methods, the paper examines the specification of a model to evaluate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for travel time changes from binomial choice data from a simple time-cost trading experiment. The analysis favours a model with random WTP as the only source of randomn......Using a range of nonparametric methods, the paper examines the specification of a model to evaluate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for travel time changes from binomial choice data from a simple time-cost trading experiment. The analysis favours a model with random WTP as the only source...... unobserved heterogeneity. This formulation is useful for parametric modelling. The index indicates that the WTP varies systematically with income and other individual characteristics. The WTP varies also with the time difference presented in the experiment which is in contradiction of standard utility theory....

  7. Evaluating career values of dietetic students. A model for other allied health professions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Vista V; Shanklin, Carol W

    2004-01-01

    Increased job opportunities in health professions make recruitment of students imperative. Effective recruitment requires a knowledge of what students value when making career decisions. This study of dietetic (n = 514) and other college students (n = 352) showed that achievement and economic security were the most important factors in their career selection regardless of major or race. Dietetic majors rated achievement, economic security, ability utilization, personal development, altruism, and working conditions significantly higher than did nondietetic students (p values important to students in this study are attainable through careers in dietetics and other allied health professions. The results of this study should be examined further with a larger sample of allied health majors to assist educators in recruiting and providing career counseling to students.

  8. Learning from Noisy and Delayed Rewards: The Value of Reinforcement Learning to Defense Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    theory of planned behavior which has been empirically studied as an explanation for behavior adoption ( Ajzen , 1991). The theory of planned behavior...human behavioral intention ( Ajzen , 1991). The theory of planned behavior states that behavioral intentions are formed by a combination of input from...the outcome evaluation, e, an evaluation of the value of the potential outcome ( Ajzen , 1991). A = n∑ i biei (43) Perceived behavioral control (PBC

  9. Case Study: Sensitivity Analysis of the Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    marsh area with emergent vegetation increases (Figure 1a). Each of these “suitability index curves” is then combined into a composite habitat suitability...Habitat Suitability Index HU Habitat Unit IEPR Independent External Peer Review LCA Louisiana Coastal Area SIV Suitability index value USACE...BBBS) restoration project was identified through the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) program as critical to maintaining the Caminada Headland and Shell

  10. Dormancy Prediction Model in a Prepaid Predominant Mobile Market : A Customer Value Management Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Adeolu O. Dairo; Temitope Akinwumi

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have predicted customer churn in the mobile indutry especially the postpaid customer segment of the market. However, only few studies have been published on the prepaid segment that could be used and operationalised within the marketing team that are responsible for the management of incident of prepaid churn. This is the first identifiable literature where customer dormancy is predicted along the customer value segmentation. In th...

  11. Application of support vector machine model for enhancing the diagnostic value of tumor markers in gastric cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hui; Huang Gang

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the early diagnostic value of tumor markers for gastric cancer using support vector machine (SVM) model. Methods: Subjects involved in the study consisted of 262 cases with gastric cancer, 156 cases with benign gastric diseases and 149 healthy controls. From those subjects, five tumor markers, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate (CA) 125, CA19-9, alphafetoprotein (AFP) and CA50, were assayed and collected to make the datasets. To modify SVM model to fit the diagnostic classifiers, radial basis function was adopted and kernel function was optimized and validated by grid search and cross validation. For comparative study, methods of combination tests of five markers, Logistic regression, and decision tree were also used. Results: For gastric cancer, the diagnostic accuracy of the combination tests, Logistic regression, decision tree and SVM model were 46.2%, 64.5%, 63.9% and 95.1% respectively. SVM model significantly elevated the diagnostic value comparing with other three methods. Conclusion: The application of SVM model is of high value in enhancing the tumor marker for the diagnosis of gastric cancer. (authors)

  12. PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE ADDED VALUE OF SULTANA SEEDLESS GRAPE PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umut Burak Geyikci

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Turkey after USA is the second important raisin grape producer by cv “Sultana”in the world (Kara,2014. The Manisa district alone accounts for 31% of totalgrape production and 80% of the whole sultana seedless raisin grape production inTurkey. 95% of total grape output generated in Manisa is made up of Sultanaseedless grape(TUIK, 2012. In thisstudy, the added value of grape production inManisa has been calculated and according to the findings, the per capita addedvalue of grape production has been computed. In order to calculate the addedvalue of grape production in Manisa, costs of labor, fuel, fertilizer, disinfection,hormone, repair and maintenance of the businesses around have been investigated.After calculated costs had been deducted from total business income, the totaladded value of grape production in Manisa and the per capita added valueofgrape production in Manisa were attained The efficiency per hectare in the sampleproduction units, which was investigated during the field research, measures up to26.470 kg. The percentile distributions of cost items at this efficiency level are;27,8% fuel costs, 23,2% fertilizing costs, 19,9% irrigation costs, 11,4%disinfection costs, 7,5% hormone usage costs, 4,6% harvesting and transportingcosts and the rest consists of maintenance costs. When the costs are deducted from income per hectare (11.646 USD, the added value per hectare turns out to be8843 USD

  13. Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

  14. Socially valued role models 25 years after the fall of Communism: a quantitative study on students and mass media exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Duduciuc

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available How young people appreciate certain public personalities and interpersonal relations in respect with their professional path have been a topic of interest among social science and communication scholars. The aim of this article consists in investigating the relation between media effects and Romanian students’ role models in lines of cultivation theory (G. Gerbner et al., 1977. On this purpose, 188 students respond to a questionnaire regarding exposure to media, the prevalent role models valued by them and their views on life achievements conveyed by the media and society at large: teachers, celebrities, artists, politicians, businessmen, priests, parents. The results showed that students relate more to role models which are contextually close to them (parents, siblings than those frequently covered by the media (politicians, showbiz celebrities. Based on these results, we stated that 25 year after the fall of communism Romanian young people do not find a contemporary personality to value as a representative for their social identity.

  15. Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Arielle W.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Stoskopf, Michael K.; Stocking, Jessica J.; O'Connell, Allan F.

    2015-01-01

    Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

  16. AN INVENTORY MODEL WITH REWORKING AND SETUP TIME TO CONSIDER EFFECT OF INFLATION AND TIME VALUE OF MONEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IMAN SEYEDI

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of inflation and time value of money on an economic production quantity (EPQ model in the single product system while the shortage of inventory is not allowed and production of defective parts during the production process and also setup time for reworking have been considered that can be non-zero. Studies show that considering the production of defective parts and reworking, the effect of inflation rate and the time value of money in EPQ model leads to change the optimal Production batch size. Since cost function is complex and finding the optimal solution is not simple, so in this study the approximate values of close to the optimal which obtained by Inventory-Total Cost chart, has been used of investigation of the effect of inflation and the time value of money on an economic quantity of production. Numerical calculations show that lack of attention to inflation and time value of money causes relatively high and unavoidably error in the cost.

  17. Adding value(s)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carré, David

    2015-01-01

    Most economic inquires revolve around agents making decisions. Getting the ‘best value’, it is assumed, drives such decisions: gaining most while risking least. This assumption has been debunked by showing that people does not always choose neither maximum benefit nor less risk (Kahneman & Tversky......, 1992). In response, behavioral economics (Camerer, 1999) has shown that agents have values other than optimization underpinning their decisions. Therefore, concerns arose regarding which values are guiding the agent but not about how such values became relevant for the agent. In this presentation, I...... will explore the consequences of shifting to the latter perspective, i.e. looking for the generative framework of values. Here I argue that economic behavior should also be seen as a sense-making process, guided by values that are chosen/rejected along with fellow human beings, in specific socio...

  18. Modeling the effects of diagenesis on carbonate clumped-isotope values in deep- and shallow-water settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolper, Daniel A.; Eiler, John M.; Higgins, John A.

    2018-04-01

    The measurement of multiply isotopically substituted ('clumped isotope') carbonate groups provides a way to reconstruct past mineral formation temperatures. However, dissolution-reprecipitation (i.e., recrystallization) reactions, which commonly occur during sedimentary burial, can alter a sample's clumped-isotope composition such that it partially or wholly reflects deeper burial temperatures. Here we derive a quantitative model of diagenesis to explore how diagenesis alters carbonate clumped-isotope values. We apply the model to a new dataset from deep-sea sediments taken from Ocean Drilling Project site 807 in the equatorial Pacific. This dataset is used to ground truth the model. We demonstrate that the use of the model with accompanying carbonate clumped-isotope and carbonate δ18O values provides new constraints on both the diagenetic history of deep-sea settings as well as past equatorial sea-surface temperatures. Specifically, the combination of the diagenetic model and data support previous work that indicates equatorial sea-surface temperatures were warmer in the Paleogene as compared to today. We then explore whether the model is applicable to shallow-water settings commonly preserved in the rock record. Using a previously published dataset from the Bahamas, we demonstrate that the model captures the main trends of the data as a function of burial depth and thus appears applicable to a range of depositional settings.

  19. Lightweight Design Solutions in the Automotive Field: Environmental Modelling Based on Fuel Reduction Value Applied to Diesel Turbocharged Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Delogu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A tailored model for the assessment of environmental benefits achievable by “light-weighting” in the automotive field is presented. The model is based on the Fuel Reduction Value (FRV coefficient, which expresses the Fuel Consumption (FC saving involved by a 100 kg mass reduction. The work is composed of two main sections: simulation and environmental modelling. Simulation modelling performs an in-depth calculation of weight-induced FC whose outcome is the FRV evaluated for a wide range of Diesel Turbocharged (DT vehicle case studies. Environmental modelling converts fuel saving to impact reduction basing on the FRVs obtained by simulations. Results show that for the considered case studies, FRV is within the range 0.115–0.143 and 0.142–0.388 L/100 km × 100 kg, respectively, for mass reduction only and powertrain adaptation (secondary effects. The implementation of FRVs within the environmental modelling represents the added value of the research and makes the model a valuable tool for application to real case studies of automotive lightweight LCA.

  20. Interactions of unconjugated bilirubin with vesicles, cyclodextrins and micelles: New modeling and the role of high pKa values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ostrow J Donald

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Unconjugated bilirubin (UCB is an unstable substance with very low aqueous solubility. Its aqueous pKa values affect many of its interactions, particularly their pH-dependence. A companion paper shows that only our prior solvent partition studies, leading to pKa values of 8.12 and 8.44, met all essential requirements for valid pKa determinations. Other published values, generally lower, some below 5.0, were shown to be invalid. The present work was designed to derive suitable models for interpreting published data on the pH-dependent binding of UCB with four agents, mentioned below, chosen because they are not, themselves, sensitive to changes in the pH range 4-10, and the data, mainly spectrometric, were of reasonable quality. Results These analyses indicated that the high pKa values, dianion dimerization constant and solubilities of UCB at various pH values, derived from our partition studies, along with literature-derived pH- and time-dependent supersaturation effects, were essential for constructing useful models that showed good qualitative, and sometimes quantitative, fits with the data. In contrast, published pKa values below 5.0 were highly incompatible with the data for all systems considered. The primary species of bound UCB in our models were: undissociated diacid for phosphatidylcholine, dianion for dodecyl maltoside micelles and cyclodextrins, and both monoanions and dianion for sodium taurocholate. The resulting binding versus pH profiles differed strikingly from each other. Conclusions The insights derived from these analyses should be helpful to explore and interpret UCB binding to more complex, pH-sensitive, physiological moieties, such as proteins or membranes, in order to understand its functions.

  1. The added value of participatory modelling in fisheries management – what has been learnt?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Röckmann, C.; Ulrich, Clara; Dreyer, M.

    2012-01-01

    How can uncertain fisheries science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing fisheries management legitimacy and effectiveness? Reducing the uncertainties around scientific models has long been perceived as the cure of the fisheries management problem. There is however...

  2. Perbandingan Berbagai Model Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Dalam Analisis Risiko Investasi Saham Syariah Dengan Metode Value At Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Farhan Qudratullah

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Value at Risk (VaR is one of the tools recommended Bank Indonesia to gauge the risk of an investment, the VaR approach tends to be more associated with the conventional assumption of a normal distribution, while contemporary empirical findings indicate the existence of patterns of abnormality in the nature of statistical data, especially on financial data. Up to this time shares in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII is still heavily influenced by the dynamics of market volatility which one, so the necessary in-depth analysis to help investors make the right decisions in investing. This research addresses the issue of risk analysis model using the VaR approach using a variety of model Heterokedastic Timeseris Conditionals (CHT and find the best model. As for the data used is the daily closing stock index data-Sharia stocks (JII post-crisis global 2008 (January 2009 – June 2011 and the software used is E-Views 5.1 and Excel 2007. The results obtained are of 16 (sixteen model approach to VaR-CHT used, only 5 (five a valid model on a confidence level of 99%, i.e. Approach (2.2 GARCH, GARCH M standard deviation GARCH (1,1, M Log (Variansi (1,1, TARCH M Log (Variansi (1,1, EGARCH and M Log (Variansi (1,1. The VaR Model of the CHT are the best and recommended in analyzing the risks of stock investment is Shariah (JII is a model that gives the value of the VaR model, i.e. the smallest VaR GARCH-M standard deviation (1,1 that gives the value of VaR is equal to 3.2396%.

  3. ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation Value-Added Product

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Chengzhu [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-10-15

    A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which

  4. Modelling Inverse Gaussian Data with Censored Response Values: EM versus MCMC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Sparks

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Low detection limits are common in measure environmental variables. Building models using data containing low or high detection limits without adjusting for the censoring produces biased models. This paper offers approaches to estimate an inverse Gaussian distribution when some of the data used are censored because of low or high detection limits. Adjustments for the censoring can be made if there is between 2% and 20% censoring using either the EM algorithm or MCMC. This paper compares these approaches.

  5. Maximization of Created Social Value: Social Business Models and Their Application Tendencies in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuklytė Jūratė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This research, based on the analysis of social business models’ concepts, aims to identify tendencies of social business models implementation in Lithuania. The theoretical part of the article highlights the main features of a pure social business model and a hybrid social business model, as well as discusses their differences. Having evaluated the implementation state of social business models, the authors reveal that the existing practice of public enterprises restricts development of social business potential, mainly accountability and transparency of social business. Therefore, transition of public enterprises to other forms of social business models should be promoted so that to ensure competitiveness in the market and continuous pursuit of social objectives. The findings revealed that the most popular forms of social business in Lithuania are volunteering, charitable activities, and sponsorship. However, despite the fact that some practices of social business are applied, development of social business models is a little-known phenomenon to the public thus might be confused with the definition of a social enterprise.

  6. Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbst, Florian-Alexander [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Lünsmann, Vanessa [Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Department of Environmental Biotechnology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Kjeldal, Henrik [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Jehmlich, Nico [Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Tholey, Andreas [Systematic Proteome Research and Bioanalytics, Institute for Experimental Medicine, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel Germany; von Bergen, Martin [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Nielsen, Jeppe Lund [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Hettich, Robert L. [Chemical Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge TN USA; Seifert, Jana [Institute of Animal Science, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart Germany; Nielsen, Per Halkjaer [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark

    2016-01-21

    Metaproteomics - the large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in time - added unique features and possibilities to study environmental microbial communities and to unravel these “black boxes”. New technical challenges arose which were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before and choosing the appropriate model system applicable to the research question can be difficult. Here, we reviewed different model systems for metaproteome analysis. Following a short introduction to microbial communities and systems, we discussed the most used systems ranging from technical systems over rhizospheric models to systems for the medical field. This includes acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, activated sludge, planted fixed bed reactors, gastrointestinal simulators and in vivo models. Model systems are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability or reliable protein extraction. The implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial responses and ecological distribution of member organisms. In the future, novel improvements are necessary to fully engage complex environmental systems.

  7. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation of Fractional-Order Complex-Valued Single Neuron Model with Time Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen; Wang, Xiaohong; Li, Yuxia; Huang, Xia

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, the problems of stability and Hopf bifurcation in a class of fractional-order complex-valued single neuron model with time delay are addressed. With the help of the stability theory of fractional-order differential equations and Laplace transforms, several new sufficient conditions, which ensure the stability of the system are derived. Taking the time delay as the bifurcation parameter, Hopf bifurcation is investigated and the critical value of the time delay for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation is determined. Finally, two representative numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

  8. An empirical survey on perceived value from tourism destination based on brand equity model: A case study of Qeshm Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Qaemi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Tourism destination brand equity is defined as all assets (or debts of brands provided with name and symbol of tourism destination to make changes in value services of experiences. In many cases, brand equity is more than physical assets. This survey performs an investigation to identify effective factors in tourism destination equity, cause and affects relationships, and proposes a model for perceived value of tourism destination. The proposed study is performed in one of free islands named Gheshm. The preliminary results indicate that there is a positive relationship between tourism destination brand awareness and destination brand equity, tourism destination brand image, destination brand equity and tourism destination brand loyalty.

  9. Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Models for the Assessment of Seasonal Wind Energy Potential of Debuncha, Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of generalized extreme value family of distributions (Weibull, Gumbel, and Frechet is employed for the first time to assess the wind energy potential of Debuncha, South-West Cameroon, and to study the variation of energy over the seasons on this site. The 29-year (1983–2013 average daily wind speed data over Debuncha due to missing values in the years 1992 and 1994 is gotten from NASA satellite data through the RETScreen software tool provided by CANMET Canada. The data is partitioned into min-monthly, mean-monthly, and max-monthly data and fitted using maximum likelihood method to the two-parameter Weibull, Gumbel, and Frechet distributions for the purpose of determining the best fit to be used for assessing the wind energy potential on this site. The respective shape and scale parameters are estimated. By making use of the P values of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (K-S and the standard error (s.e analysis, the results show that the Frechet distribution best fits the min-monthly, mean-monthly, and max-monthly data compared to the Weibull and Gumbel distributions. Wind speed distributions and wind power densities of both the wet and dry seasons are compared. The results show that the wind power density of the wet season was higher than in the dry season. The wind speeds at this site seem quite low; maximum wind speeds are listed as between 3.1 and 4.2 m/s, which is below the cut-in wind speed of many modern turbines (6–10 m/s. However, we recommend the installation of low cut-in wind turbines like the Savonius or Aircon (10 KW for stand-alone low energy need.

  10. A New Quantile Regression Model to forecast one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Steine, Sturla Aavik; Eliassen, Markus Thorsø

    2014-01-01

    This master thesis focuses on the problem of forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR) in the nancial markets. There are numerous methods for calculating VaR. However, research in this area has not currently reached one universally accepted method that can produce good VaR estimates across dierent data series, and VaR prediction and quality testing is still a very challenging statistical problem. The thesis has two main purposes, the rst is to propose a simple quantile regression mod...

  11. A Modeling methodology for NoSQL Key-Value databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo ROSSEL

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the field of non-relational databases. However, far too little attention has been paid to design methodology. Key-value data stores are an important component of a class of non-relational technologies that are grouped under the name of NoSQL databases. The aim of this paper is to propose a design methodology for this type of database that allows overcoming the limitations of the traditional techniques. The proposed methodology leads to a clean design that also allows for better data management and consistency.

  12. Model integrating the processes of consumer perceived value creation and consumer relationship development

    OpenAIRE

    Vaitkienė, Rimgailė; Pilibaitytė, Vestina

    2008-01-01

    Straipsnyje analizuojamos vertės vartotojui kūrimo bei santykių vystymo procesų sąsajos. Jame apžvelgiama santykių nauda, kaip vertės vartotojui dedamoji, santykių su vartotojais vystymo procesas bei jo etapai, vertės vartotojui kūrimo procesas santykių marketingo kontekste bei pateikiamas vertės vartotojui kūrimo ir santykių su vartotojais vystymo procesus integruojantis modelis. The article analyses the links between the consumer perceived value creation and relationship development proc...

  13. Assessment of groundwater contamination risk using hazard quantification, a modified DRASTIC model and groundwater value, Beijing Plain, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junjie; He, Jiangtao; Chen, Honghan

    2012-08-15

    Groundwater contamination risk assessment is an effective tool for groundwater management. Most existing risk assessment methods only consider the basic contamination process based upon evaluations of hazards and aquifer vulnerability. In view of groundwater exploitation potentiality, including the value of contamination-threatened groundwater could provide relatively objective and targeted results to aid in decision making. This study describes a groundwater contamination risk assessment method that integrates hazards, intrinsic vulnerability and groundwater value. The hazard harmfulness was evaluated by quantifying contaminant properties and infiltrating contaminant load, the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability was evaluated using a modified DRASTIC model and the groundwater value was evaluated based on groundwater quality and aquifer storage. Two groundwater contamination risk maps were produced by combining the above factors: a basic risk map and a value-weighted risk map. The basic risk map was produced by overlaying the hazard map and the intrinsic vulnerability map. The value-weighted risk map was produced by overlaying the basic risk map and the groundwater value map. Relevant validation was completed by contaminant distributions and site investigation. Using Beijing Plain, China, as an example, thematic maps of the three factors and the two risks were generated. The thematic maps suggested that landfills, gas stations and oil depots, and industrial areas were the most harmful potential contamination sources. The western and northern parts of the plain were the most vulnerable areas and had the highest groundwater value. Additionally, both the basic and value-weighted risk classes in the western and northern parts of the plain were the highest, indicating that these regions should deserve the priority of concern. Thematic maps should be updated regularly because of the dynamic characteristics of hazards. Subjectivity and validation means in assessing the

  14. The Perceived Value of University-Based, Continuing Education Leadership Development Programs for Administrators in Higher Education: An Intangibles Model of Value Creation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Geraldine Louise

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the perceived value of leadership development programs (LDPs) provided by continuing education for administrators in colleges and universities. Included in this study were questions about the perceived value of non-credit, credit, and blended (credit and non-credit) programs at the individual, institutional, and higher…

  15. High Technology Service Value Maximization through an MCDM-Based Innovative e-Business Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chi-Yo; Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung; Ho, Wen-Rong; Chuang, Hsiu-Tyan; Lue, Yeou-Feng

    The emergence of the Internet has changed the high technology marketing channels thoroughly in the past decade while E-commerce has already become one of the most efficient channels which high technology firms may skip the intermediaries and reach end customers directly. However, defining appropriate e-business models for commercializing new high technology products or services through Internet are not that easy. To overcome the above mentioned problems, a novel analytic framework based on the concept of high technology customers’ competence set expansion by leveraging high technology service firms’ capabilities and resources as well as novel multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques, will be proposed in order to define an appropriate e-business model. An empirical example study of a silicon intellectual property (SIP) commercialization e-business model based on MCDM techniques will be provided for verifying the effectiveness of this novel analytic framework. The analysis successful assisted a Taiwanese IC design service firm to define an e-business model for maximizing its customer’s SIP transactions. In the future, the novel MCDM framework can be applied successful to novel business model definitions in the high technology industry.

  16. Predictive value and modeling analysis of MSCT signs in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) to pathological risk degree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J-K

    2017-03-01

    By analyzing MSCT (multi-slice computed tomography) signs with different risks in gastrointestinal stromal tumors, this paper aimed to discuss the predictive value and modeling analysis of MSCT signs in GISTs (gastrointestinal stromal tumor) to pathological risk degree. 100 cases of primary GISTs with abdominal and pelvic MSCT scan were involved in this study. All MSCT scan findings and enhanced findings were analyzed and compared among cases with different risk degree of pathology. Then GISTs diagnostic model was established by using support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, and its diagnostic value was evaluated as well. All lesions were solitary, among which there were 46 low-risk cases, 24 medium-risk cases and 30 high-risk cases. For all high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk GISTs, there were statistical differences in tumor growth pattern, size, shape, fat space, with or without calcification, ulcer, enhancement method and peritumoral and intratumoral vessels (pvalue at each period (plain scan, arterial phase, venous phase) (p>0.05). The apparent difference lied in plain scan, arterial phase and venous phase for each risk degree. The diagnostic accuracy of SVM diagnostic model established with 10 imaging features as indexes was 70.0%, and it was especially reliable when diagnosing GISTs of high or low risk. Preoperative analysis of MSCT features is clinically significant for its diagnosis of risk degree and prognosis; GISTs diagnostic model established on the basis of SVM possesses high diagnostic value.

  17. It Is a Brave New World: Alternative Payment Models and Value Creation in Total Joint Arthroplasty: Creating Value for TJR, Quality and Cost-Effectiveness Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kevin K; Harty, Jonathan H; Bosco, Joseph A

    2017-06-01

    The increasing cost of our country's healthcare is not sustainable. To address this crisis, the federal government is transiting healthcare reimbursement from the traditional volume-based system to a value-based system. As such, increasing healthcare value has become an essential point of discussion for all healthcare stakeholders. The purpose of this study is to discuss the importance of healthcare value as a means to achieve this goal of value-based medicine and 3 methods to create value in total joint arthroplasty. These methods are to: (1) improve outcomes greater than the increased costs to achieve this improvement, (2) decrease costs without affecting outcomes, and (3) decrease costs while simultaneously improving outcomes. Following these guidelines will help practitioners thrive in a bundled care environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Tested R-value for straw bale walls and performance modeling for straw bale homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Commins, T.R.; Stone, N.I.

    1998-07-01

    Since the late 1800's, houses have been built of straw. Contrary to nursery rhymes, these houses have proved sturdy and comfortable and not at all easy to blow down. In the last several years, as people have experimented with new and old building materials and looked for ways to halt rice field stubble burning, there has been a resurgence of homes built with straw. Unfortunately, there has been very little testing to determine the thermal performance of straw bale walls or to discover how these walls affect a home's heating and cooling energy consumption. Reported R-values for straw bale walls range from R-17 to R-54, depending on the test procedure, the type of straw used and the type of straw bale wall system. This paper reports on a test set-up by the California Energy Commission (Commission) and conducted in a nationally accredited lab, Architectural Testing Inc. (ATI) in Fresno, California. The paper describes the tested straw bale wall assemblies, the testing process, and problems encountered in the construction and testing of the walls. The paper also gives a reasonable R-value to use in calculating thermal performance of straw bale houses and presents findings that show that straw bale construction can decrease the heating and cooling energy usage of a typical house by up to a third over conventional practice.

  19. The ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) as a model for testing food-value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streby, Henry M.; Peterson, Sean M.; Scholtens, Brian; Monroe, Adrian; Andersen, David

    2013-01-01

    Food-value theory states that territorial animals space themselves such that each territory contains adequate food for rearing young. The ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is often cited as a species for which this hypothesis is supported because ovenbird territory size is inversely related to ground-invertebrate abundance within territories. However, little is known about juvenile ovenbird diet and whether food availability is accurately assessed using ground-sampling methods. We examined the relationship between ground-litter food availability and juvenile ovenbird diet in mixed northern hardwood-coniferous forests of north-central Minnesota. We sampled food availability with pitfall traps and litter samples, and concurrently sampled diet of juvenile ovenbirds from stomach samples. We found that juvenile ovenbirds were fed selectively from available food resources. In addition, we found that both ground-sampling methods greatly under-sampled forest caterpillars and snails, which together comprised 63% of juvenile ovenbird diet by mass. Combined with recent radio-telemetry findings that spot-mapping methods can poorly estimate territory size for forest songbirds, our results suggest that comparisons of spot-mapped ovenbird territories with ground-sampled invertebrate availability may not be reliable tests of food-value theory.

  20. Clinical value of a self-designed training model for pinpointing and puncturing trigeminal ganglion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yu-Quan; He, Shu; Shen, Yun-Xia; Qian, Cheng

    2014-04-01

    OBJECTIVES. A training model was designed for learners and young physicians to polish their skills in clinical practices of pinpointing and puncturing trigeminal ganglion. METHODS. A head model, on both cheeks of which the deep soft tissue was replaced by stuffed organosilicone and sponge while the superficial soft tissue, skin and the trigeminal ganglion were made of organic silicon rubber for an appearance of real human being, was made from a dried skull specimen and epoxy resin. Two physicians who had experiences in puncturing foramen ovale and trigeminal ganglion were selected to test the model, mainly for its appearance, X-ray permeability, handling of the puncture, and closure of the puncture sites. Four inexperienced physicians were selected afterwards to be trained combining Hartel's anterior facial approach with the new method of real-time observation on foramen ovale studied by us. RESULTS. Both appearance and texture of the model were extremely close to those of a real human. The fact that the skin, superficial soft tissue, deep muscles of the cheeks, and the trigeminal ganglion made of organic silicon rubber all had great elasticity resulted in quick closure and sealing of the puncture sites. The head model made of epoxy resin had similar X-ray permeability to a human skull specimen under fluoroscopy. The soft tissue was made of radiolucent material so that the training can be conducted with X-ray guidance. After repeated training, all the four young physicians were able to smoothly and successfully accomplish the puncture. CONCLUSION. This self-made model can substitute for cadaver specimen in training learners and young physicians on foramen ovale and trigeminal ganglion puncture. It is very helpful for fast learning and mastering this interventional operation skill, and the puncture accuracy can be improved significantly with our new method of real-time observation on foramen ovale.